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ูุฐุง ู
ุง ุฃูุฏู ุฃู ุฃููุช ุงูุชุจุงููู
ุฅููู... | This is a very important point for me to get across. |
ูุฃููู ููู
ุง ุชุนูู
ููุ ูุฅูู ู
ุนุธู
ุงูููุงุณุ ุนูุฏู
ุง ูุณู
ุนูู ุฃูููู ุฃุชูุจูุฃ ุจุฃูู ุบุงูุจููุฉ ุงูุจุดุฑ ุงููุฐูู ูุณูููู ุงูุฃุฑุถ ุงูุขู ุณูุนูุดูู 1000 ุณูุฉ ูุธูููู ุฃูููุง ุณูุฎุชุฑุน ูุฐู ุงูุชูููููุงุช ุงูุฌุฏูุฏุฉ ูู ุงูุนููุฏ ุงููุงุฏู
ุฉ... ูุฃูู ูุฐู ุงูุชูููููุงุช ุณุชูุถู ุนูู ุงููุฑู
... ูุชุณู
ุญ ููุง ุจุงูุนูุด ู1000 ุนุงู
ูุฃูุซุฑ... | Because, you know, most people, when they hear that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more, they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades that are so thoroughly eliminating aging that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more. |
ูุณุช ุฃููู ุฐูู ุจุชุงุชุงู... | I'm not saying that at all. |
ุฅูููู ุฃููู ุฃูู ูุณุจุฉ ุชุทููุฑ ูุฐู ุงูุชูููููุงุช... ุณุชููู ูุงููุฉ... | I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies will be enough. |
ูู ุชููู ูุงู
ูุฉุ ูููู ุณุชู
ูููุง ู
ู ุฅุตูุงุญ ุจุนุถ ุงูุฃู
ูุฑ.. ุงูุชู ุชุคุฏู ุฅูู ููุงุฉ ุงูุฃุดุฎุงุต ูู ุนู
ุฑ ุงู200ุ ูุจู ุฃู ูุตู ุงูููุงุณ ุฅูู ูุฐุง ุงูุนู
ุฑ... | They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds. |
ููุฐูู ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ุจุงูููุณุจุฉ ุฅูู ุงูุฃุดุฎุงุต ูู ุนู
ุฑ ุงู300 ูุงู400 ุนุงู
ูููุฐุง... | And the same for 300 and 400 and so on. |
ุฃุนุทู ุฐูู ู
ุตุทูุญ... "ุงูุชุณุงุฑุน ูู ุฅุทุงูุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑ" | I decided to give this a little name, which is "longevity escape velocity." |
ุฌูุฏุ ูุจุฏู ุฃูู ุงูุตููุฑุฉ ูุตูุช | Well, it seems to get the point across. |
ูุฐู ุงูู
ุณุงุฑุงุช ููุง ุนุจุงุฑุฉ ุนู ุชูููุนุงุช ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุงูุชู ุณูุนูุดูุง ุงููุงุณุ ุจุงูููุธุฑ ุฅูู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุงูุจููููุฌู... ุงููุฐู ููุงุณ ุจุตุญูุฉ ุงูุฃุดุฎุงุต... ูู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุงูุฐู ูููู ุนููู ุงูุดูุฎุตุ ุนูุฏู
ุง ูุชู
ุงููุตูู ุฅูู ูุฐู ุงูุชุทููุฑุงุช ุงูุชููููุฉ ุงูุทุจููุฉ | So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live, in terms of remaining life expectancy, as measured by their health, for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive. |
ุฅุฐุง ููุช ูู ุณู ุงู100 ุฃู ุญุชูู ูู 80 ู
ู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ูููุช ูู
ุง ู
ุชูุณูุท ุงูุฃุดุฎุงุต ูู ุงู80 ู
ู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ูู ูุชู
ููู ูู ุงูุบุงูุจ ุฃู ูุนู
ู ุดูุฆุงู ูู ุจุงุณุชุฎุฏุงู
ูุฐู ุงูุชูููููุงุช ูุฃููู ุฃูุฑุจ ู
ุง ูููู... ุฅูู ุงููููุงูุฉ.. ุญูุซุ ูุฌุจ ุฃู ุชููู ูุงุฏุฑุงู ุนูู ุชุญู
ูู ุงูุชูููููุงุช ุงูุฃูููุฉ | If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 -- and an average 80-year-old, we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies, because you're too close to death's door for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you. |
ูุชุชู
ููู ู
ู ุงูุงุณุชูุงุฏุฉ ู
ููุง... | You won't be able to withstand them. |
ููููุ ุฅุฐุง ููุช ูู ุงู50 ู
ู ุงูุนู
ุฑุ ููุฏูู ุงููุฑุตุฉ... ุจุงูุฎุฑูุฌ ุจุฃู
ุงูุ ุชุนุฑููู-- ูุชุฎุทูู ูุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ุญูุซ ูุตุจุญ ุนู
ุฑู ุงูุจููููุฌู ุฃููู ุจุงููุนู... ุจู
ุนุงููุฑ ุงูุดูุจุงุจ ุงูุฌุณุฏู ูุงูุนููู... ููู ุงุญุชู
ุงููุฉ ู
ุฎุงุทุฑ ุงูููุงุฉ ู
ู ุงูู
ูุช ู
ู ุฃุณุจุงุจ ููุง ุนูุงูุฉ ุจุงูุนู
ุฑ | But if you're only 50, then there's a chance that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know -- -- eventually get through this and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense, in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental, and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes. |
ูุจุงูุทุจุน.. ุฅุฐุง ููุช ุฃุตุบุฑ ู
ู ุฐูู... ูู ุชุตุจุญ ุฃุจุฏุงู... ุถุนููุงู ุจู
ุง ููู ุงูููุงูุฉุ ุญุชูู ุชู
ูุช ู
ู ุฃุณุจุงุจ ููุง ุนูุงูุฉ ุจุงูุชููุฏูู
ูู ุงูุนู
ุฑ | And of course, if you're a bit younger than that, then you're never really even going to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes. |
ูุฐุง ูุฃูุง ุฃุชูุตูู ุฅูู ูุชูุฌุฉ ุญููููุฉ ููุง... ููู ุฃูู ุฃููู ุดุฎุต ูุตู ุฅูู ุนู
ุฑ ุงู150 ุณูุฉ ูุง ูุนุฑู ูู
ูู ุนู
ุฑ ูุฐุง ุงูุดูุฎุต ุงูุขูุ ูุฃูููุง ูุง ูุนุฑู ุงูู
ุฏูุฉ ุงูุชู ูุชุทููุจูุง.. ุชุทููุฑ ุฃููู ุงูุชูููููุงุช ูู ูุฐุง ุงูู
ุฌุงู... | So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old -- we don't know how old that person is today, because we don't know how long it's going to take to get these first-generation therapies. |
ููู ุจุบุถ ุงูููุธุฑ ุนู ุนู
ุฑู ู
ุง ุฃุฏูุนูู ููุ ุฃู ุฃููู ุดุฎุต ูุนูุด ุฅูู ุณู ุงู1000 ุนุงู
ุทุจุนุงู ุจุฏูู ุงุนุชุจุงุฑ ุชุฏุฎูู ุงูููุงุฑุซ ุงูููููุฉ ุณูููู ุฃุตุบุฑ ููุท ุจุนุดุฑุฉ ุฃุนูุงู
ู
ู ุฃููู ุดุฎุต ุนู
ุฑู 150 ุณูุฉ | But irrespective of that age, I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 -- subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes -- is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old. |
ููุฐู ููุฑุฉ ู
ูู
ูุฉ | And that's quite a thought. |
ุญุณูุงูุ ุณุฃุชุญุฏูุซ ูู ุงูุฏูุงุฆู ุงูุณุจุนุฉ ูุงููุตู ุงูุฃุฎูุฑุฉ ููุงุุนู ุงูุฎุทูุฉ ุงูุฃูููุฉ ุนูู ูุฐุง ุงูุทุฑููุ ููู ููู ูุตู ุฅูู ูุฐู ุงูุชูููุฉ ุงูุฃููููุฉ ูู ุฅุทุงูุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุงูุจููููุฌูุ ูุงููุชู ุณุชุณู
ุญ ููุง ุจุชุฌุงูุฒ ุงูุชูุณุงุฑุน... ููููู
ุฐููุ ุณุฃุชุญุฏูุซ ุนู ุงููุฆุฑุงู ููุง ููููุงู | Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk, namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension that will allow us to get to escape velocity? |
ููุงู ุดูุก ูุดุจู ููุง ู
ุง ุณู
ููุชู ููู
ุณุงุจูุงู ุจ"ุนู
ููุฉ ุชุฌุฏูุฏุงูุดูุจุงุจ ูุงููููุฉ" | And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit. I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation. |
ุฃุณู
ูููุง ููุง "ุนู
ูููุฉ ุชุฌุฏูุฏ ุงูุดูุจุงุจ ูุงููููุฉ ูููุฆุฑุงู" | I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively. |
ููุฐุง ู
ุง ุณูู ูุชูุตูู ุฅููู | And this is what it is. |
ูุงุฎุฐ ููุง ูุตููุฉ ูุฆุฑุงู ุชุนูุด ุทูููุงูุ ุฃู ุจู
ุนุฏูู ุซูุงุซ ุณููุงุช | I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse, which basically means mice that live about three years on average. |
ูุง ููุนู ู
ุนูู
ุดูุฆุงู ุญุชูู ุนู
ุฑ ุงูุณูุชูู | We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old. |
ุซู
ู ูููู
ุจุฅุฌุฑุงุก ุงูุชูููููุงุช ุงูู
ุฎุชููุฉุ ูุจุฐูู ูุทูู ุนู
ุฑูู
ุฅูู ู
ุง ู
ุนุฏููู ุฎู
ุณ ุณููุงุช | And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them, and with those therapies, we get them to live, on average, to their fifth birthday. |
ุฃู ูุถูู ุณูุชูู ุฅูู ู
ุนุฏูู ุญูุงุชูุง ุซูุงุซุฉ ุฃุถุนุงู ู
ุง ุชุจููู ู
ู ุนู
ุฑูุง ุงูุฃุตูู ู
ูุฐ ุจุฏุฃูุง ุนูููุง ุชุทุจูู ุงูุชูููููุงุช | So, in other words, we add two years -- we treble their remaining lifespan, starting from the point that we started the therapies. |
ุงูุณุคุงู ููุง ุงูุขูุ ู
ุงุฐุง ุณูุนูู ุฐูู ุจุงููุณุจุฉ ููููุช ุงููุงุฒู
ููุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ููุณู ุจุงููุณุจุฉ ููุจุดุฑ | The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans? |
ูุงููุฐู ูุณุชุทูุนุ ูู
ุง ุฃูุถุญุช ุณุงุจูุงู ุฃู ูุทูู ุนูููุ "ุชุฌุฏูุฏ ุงููููุฉ ูุงูุดูุจุงุจ" ุฃู "ุงูุชุณุงุฑุน ูู ุฅุทุงูุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑ" | Which we can now, as I've explained, equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity. |
ุซุงููุงูุ ู
ุงุฐุง ูุนูู ุฐูู ุจุงูููุณุจุฉ ูู
ุง ููููู... ุนู ุงูู
ุฏูุฉ ุงูุชู ูุชุทููุจูุง ุงููุตูู ูู
ุง ุชุญุฏูุซูุง ุนูู ููุงุ ู
ู ุงููููุทุฉ ุงููุชู ูุตู ูููุง ุฅูู ู
ุง ุชุญุฏูุซูุง ุนูู ุจุงูููุณุจุฉ ูููุฆุฑุงูุ | Secondly, what does it mean for the public's perception of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things, starting from the time we get the mice? |
ูุซุงูุซุงูุ ู
ุง ุงููุฐู ุณูู ุชูุนูู ูุฐู ุงูุชูููููุงุชุ ููู
ู
ู ุงูููุงุณ ูุฑูุฏ ุฐูู ูุนูุงู | And thirdly, the question is, what will it do to actually how much people want it? |
ููุจุฏู ูู ููุง ูู ุฃูู ุฃููู ุณุคุงู ุณุฃููุงู ุณุคุงู ุนูู
ู ู
ุญุถ ูู
ู ุงูุตูุนูุจุฉ ุจู
ูุงูุ ุฃู ูุฌูุจ ุนููู | And it seems to me that the first question is entirely a biology question, and it's extremely hard to answer. |
ุณูููู ุฐูู ุบูุฑ ุฏููู... ูุงูุนุฏูุฏ ู
ู ุฒู
ูุงุฆู ูุชูู ุนูู ุฃูููุง ูุง ูุฌุจ ุฃู ูุทูู ู
ุซู ูุฐู ุงูุชูููุงุช ุญุชู ูููู ู
ุชุฃูุฏูู ู
ููุง | One has to be very speculative, and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation, that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more. |
ุจุฑุฃูู ูุฐุง ูุฑุงุก | I say that's nonsense. |
ู
ุง ุฃุธููู ุฃูุงุ ุฃูู ุงูุตู
ุช ููุงุ ูุง ููู
ุนู ุดุนูุฑ ุจุงูู
ุณุคููููุฉ | I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this. |
ูุฌุจ ุฃู ูุนุทู ุฃูุฑุจ ุชุฎู
ูู ู
ู
ูู ูู ุธู ุงูู
ุนููู
ุงุช ุงูู
ุชููุฑุฉ ููุนุทู ุงูููุงุณ ุฎูุงุฑุงุช ูุชูููู
ุฃูููููุงุชูุง ุฃููู ููุงู ุงุญุชู
ุงูููุฉ ู
ุชุณุงููุฉ ูู ุงููุตูู ุฅูู | We need to give our best guess as to the time frame, in order to give people a sense of proportion so that they can assess their priorities. |
ุฃููู ู
ุฑุญูุฉุ ุฃู "ุนู
ูููุฉ ุชุฌุฏูุฏ ุงููููุฉ ูุงูุดูุจุงุจ" ูู ุฎูุงู 15 ุนุงู
ู
ู ุงููููุทุฉ ุงูุชู ูุตู ูููุง ุฅูู "ุนู
ูููุฉ ุชุฌุฏูุฏ ุงููููุฉ ูุงูุดูุจุงุจ ูู ุงููุฆุฑุงู" | So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance of reaching this RHR milestone, robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation. |
15 ุณูุฉ ุจุนุฏ ุงููุฃุฑ ุงูู
ุชุฌุฏูุฏ | 15 years from the robust mouse. |
ุณูููู ุงูุฑุฃู ุงูุนุงู
ุฃูุถู ู
ู ุงูุขู | The public's perception will probably be somewhat better than that. |
ุญูุซ ุฃู ุงูููุงุณ ูุง ูุนุฑููู ุชู
ุงู
ุงู ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุชุนููุฏ ุงูุชุทููุฑุงุช ุงูุนูู
ููุฉ | The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are. |
ูุฐุง ููู
ูุธูููู ุฃูููุง ูุฏ ุชุทููุฑ ุฎูุงู ุฎู
ุณุฉ ุฃุนูุงู
| So they'll probably think it's five years away. |
ูู
ุน ุฃูููู
ุณูููููู ู
ุฎุทุฆูููุ ูู ูููู ูุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ู
ูู
ุง | They'll be wrong, but that actually won't matter too much. |
ูู ุงููููุงูุฉุ ุจุงูุทูุจุนุ ุฃุนุชูุฏ ุฃููู ู
ู ุงูุฅูุตุงู ุงูููู... ุฃู ุงูุณูุจุจ ูุฑุงุก ููู ุงูููุงุณุ ูุฏููุง ุขุฑุงุก ู
ุชูุงูุถุฉ ุญูู ุงูุชููุฏูู
ูู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุญุชูู ุงูุขูุ ูู ุงูุบููุฉ ุงููุชู ุชุญุฏูุซุช ุนููุง ุณุงุจูุงูุ ููู ุทุฑููุฉ ููุชุฃููู
ู
ุน ู
ุง ูุธููู ูุงูุนุงู ู
ุญุชูู
ุงู | And finally, of course, I think it's fair to say that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy. |
ุณูููู ุฐูู ุฃู
ุฑุงู ู
ูุณูุงู ุญูููุง ูุฃูู ุงูุชูุฏูู
ูู ุงูุณูุ ูู ูุนูุฏ ุฃู
ุฑุงู ุญุชู
ููุงู ูู
ุง ูู ุงูุงุนุชูุงุฏ ุงูุณูุงุฆุฏ ุงูุขู ุญูุซ ูุชู
ู ุชุฃุฌููู ุจุดูู ู
ูู
ูุณ ูู ุงููุฆุฑุงู | That will be history at this point, because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans, since it's been postponed so very effectively in mice. |
ูุฐุง ูุณูุฑู ุฃูุถุงู ุชุบููุฑุงู ู
ูุญูุธุงู ูู ู
ูุงูู ุงูููุงุณ ุชุฌุงูู ูุจุงูุทุจุน ุณูููู ูุฐูู ูุชุงุฆุฌ ูุจูุฑุฉ | So we're likely to end up with a very strong change in people's attitudes, and of course that has enormous implications. |
ูุญุชูู ุฃุณุชุทูุน ุฅูุถุงุญ ูููููุฉ ุงููุตูู ุฅูู ุงูููุชุงุฆุฌ ุงูุฅูุฌุงุจููุฉ ููุชุฌุงุฑุจ ุนูู ุงููุฆุฑุงู ุณุฃุดุฑุญ ุฃูุซุฑุ ุนู ู
ุง ุฃุนููู ุจุงูุชููุฏูู
ูู ุงูุณูู ุฃู ุงููุฑู
| So in order to tell you now how we're going to get these mice, I'm going to add a little bit to my description of aging. |
ุณุฃุณุชุฎุฏู
ููุง ููู
ุฉ "ุงูุชููู" ููุฏููุงูุฉ ุนูู ู
ุง ุชุณุจูุจู ุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุฃูุถ ูุงููุฐู ูุคุฏู ูู ุงููููุงูุฉ ุฅูู ุงูู
ุฑุถ | I'm going to use this word "damage" to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism and that eventually cause pathology. |
ูุฃู ุงูุดููุฆ ุงูู
ูู
ููุง ุฃููู ูุฃู ูุฐุง ุงูุชููู ูุณุจูุจ ุงูู
ุฑุถ ู
ุน ุงูููุช ููุท ูุงูุชููู ููุณู ูุจุฏุฃ ุจุงูุญุฏูุซ ุทูุงู ุญูุงุฉ ุงูุฅูุณุงูุ ูุญุชูู ูุจู ุฃู ูููุฏ | Because the critical thing about this is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology, the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we're born. |
ุฅููุง ุฃูู ุงูุชููู ููุณ ุฌุฒุกุงู ู
ู ุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุฃูุถ ููุณูุง | But it is not part of metabolism itself. |
ููุฐุง ูุจุฏู ู
ููุฏุงู | And this turns out to be useful. |
ุญูุซ ูุณุชุทูุน ุฅุนุงุฏุฉ ุฑุณู
ุงูููู
ูุฐุฌ ุงูุฃุตูู ููุฐุง | Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way. |
ูุณุชุทูุน ุงูููู ููุงุ ุฃู ุงููุฑู ุงูุฃุณุงุณู ุจูู ุนูู
ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉุ ูุทุจ ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉ ูู ุฃูู ุนูู
ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉุ ูุญุงูู ุฅุญุจุงุท ุงูููุณุจุฉ ุงููุชู ุชุคุฏู ูููุง ุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุฃูุถ ุฅูู "ุงูุชููู" | We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate at which metabolism lays down this damage. |
ูุณุฃุดุฑุญ ุงูุขู ู
ุง ุฃุนููู ุจ"ุงูุชูู" ูู ุงูู
ุตุทูุญ "ุงูุฃุญูุงุฆู" | And I'm going to explain exactly what damage is in concrete biological terms in a moment. |
ุจููู
ุง ูุญุงูู ุทุจ ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉุ ูุณุจ ุงูููุช ู
ู ุฎูุงู ุฅููุงู ุนู
ูููุฉ ุชุญููู "ุงูุชููู" ุฅูู "ู
ุฑุถ" | And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time by stopping the damage converting into pathology. |
ูุงูุณูุจุจ ูู ููู ูุฐู ู
ุนุงุฑู ุฎุงุณุฑุฉ ูู ูุฃู "ุงูุชููู" ูุชุฑุงูู
| And the reason it's a losing battle is because the damage is continuing to accumulate. |
ูุฐุง ูููุงูู ุทุฑููุฉ ุซุงูุซุฉุ ุฅุฐุง ูุธุฑูุง ุฅูู ุงูุฃู
ุฑ | So there's a third approach, if we look at it this way. |
ุจู
ูุธูุฑ ููุฏุณู ูุฃูุง ุฃุฏูุนู ุงูุขู ุฃู ูุฐุง ุงูู
ูุธูุฑ ูุฑูุจ | We can call it the "engineering approach," and I claim that the engineering approach is within range. |
ูุจุงูู
ูุธูุฑ ุงูููุฏุณูุ ูุญู ูู ูุญุงูู ุฅููุงู ุฃู ุนู
ูููุฉ ู
ู ูุฐู ุงูุนู
ููุงุช | The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes. |
ูุง ุงูุฃููู ููุง ุงูุซูุงููุฉ | It does not intervene in this process or this one. |
ููุฐุง ุฌููุฏ ุญูุซ ุฃูููุง ูู ูุฎูุถ ู
ุนุงุฑู ุฎุงุณุฑุฉ ููู ุดูุฆ ููุงุฑุจ ุนูู ุงููุตูู ุฅููู ูุฃูููุง ูุง ุชุญุงูู ุฃู ุชุชุฏุฎูู ูู ุงูุชูุทููุฑ ุงูุทุจูุนู ูููุงุฆูุงุช ุงูุญููุฉ... | And that's good because it means that it's not a losing battle, and it's something that we are within range of being able to do, because it doesn't involve improving on evolution. |
ุฅููุง ุฃูู ุงูู
ูุธูุฑ ุงูููุฏุณู ูุฑู ุจุจุณุงุทุฉุ "ุฏุนูุง ูุฐูุจ ููุตูุญ ุฌู
ูุน ุฃููุงุน ุงูุถูุฑุฑ ุงูุญุงุตู" ููุณ ุชู
ุงู
ุงูุ ูููู ุจุฏุฑุฌุฉ ูุงููุฉ ููุจูู "ุงูุชููู" ุฃููู ู
ู ูุณุจุฉ ู
ุนูููุฉ ูุฐู ุงูููุณุจุฉ ุงููุชู ุชุฌุนู "ุงูุชููู" ูุชุญููู ุฅูู ู
ุฑุถ | The engineering approach simply says, "Let's go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage -- not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot, so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic." |
ูุญู ูุนูู
ุฃูู ูุฐู ุงูููุณุจุฉ ู
ุญุฏูุฏุฉ ูุนูุงู ูุฃูููุง ูุง ูุตุงุจ ุจุฃู
ุฑุงุถ ุชุฑุชุจุท ุจุงูุนู
ุฑุ ุญุชูู ูุตู ุฅูู ู
ูุชุตู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ู
ุน ุฃูู "ุงูุชููู" ูุจุฏุฃ ุจุงูุชูุฑุงูู
ูุนูุงู ู
ู ูุจู ุฃู ูููุฏ | We know that this threshold exists, because we don't get age-related diseases until we're in middle age, even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born. |
ููู
ุงุฐุง ุฃุนุชุจุฑ ุฃูููุง ุงูุชุฑุจูุง ู
ู ุงููุฐู ูุฑูุฏ ุงููุตูู ุฅูููุ ุฃูุธุฑูุง ููุง... | Why do I say that we're in range? Well, this is basically it. |
ุงูููุฑุฉ ู
ู ูุฐู ุงูุดูุฑูุญุฉ ุงูุธูุงูุฑุฉ ุนูู ุงูุดูุงุดุฉ ูู ูู ููุงูุชูุง | The point about this slide is actually the bottom. |
ุญูุซ ูู ุญุงูููุง ุฃู ูุฏุฑุฌ ุฌู
ูุน ุงูุฃุณุจุงุจ ุงูู
ุคุฏูุฉ ุฅูู ุงููุฑู
ูุงููุชู ุชุชุนููู ุจุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุฃูุถ ุณูุฃุฎุฐูุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ููู ุงููููุ ูุฃู ููู ุนู
ูููุงุช ุงูุฃูุถ... ุชุคุซูุฑ ูู ุงููุฑู
ุจุดูู ุฃู ุขุฎุฑ | If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging, we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism is important for aging in one way or another. |
ูุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ ุงูุธูุงูุฑุฉ ุนูู ุงูุดูุงุดุฉุูู ููุท ูุบุงูุฉ ุงูุชููุถูุญุ ูููุณุช ูุงู
ูุฉ | This list is just for illustration; it is incomplete. |
ูุฐูู ุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ ุนูู ุงูุฌูุฉ ุงููุณุฑู ุบูุฑ ูุงู
ูุฉ | The list on the right is also incomplete. |
ุฅูููุง ูุงุฆู
ุฉ ุจุงูุฃู
ุฑุงุถ ุงูู
ุชุนูููุฉ ุจุงูุชููุฏูู
ูู ุงูุนู
ุฑ ููู ุฃูุถุงู ุบูุฑ ูุงู
ูุฉ | It's a list of types of pathology that are age-related, and it's just an incomplete list. |
ุฅููุง ุฃูููู ุฃุฏูุนู ููุง ุฃูู ุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ ุงููุชู ูู ุงููุณุท ูุงู
ูุฉ ูุฐู ูุงุฆู
ุฉ ุจุฃููุงุน ุงูุฃุดูุงุก ุงููุชู ูุนุชุจุฑูุง "ุชูู" ุงูุฃุนุฑุงุถ ุงูุฌุงูุจููุฉ ูุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุฃูุถ ุงููุชู ุชุคุฏูู ุฅูู ุงูู
ุฑุถ ุฃู ูู
ูู ุฃู ุชุคุฏูู ุฅูู ุงูู
ุฑุถ | But I would like to claim to you that this list in the middle is actually complete -- this is the list of types of thing that qualify as damage, side effects of metabolism that cause pathology in the end, or that might cause pathology. |
ููุง ููุฌุฏ ุบูุฑ ุณุจุนุฉ ู
ููุง | And there are only seven of them. |
ุณุจุนุฉ ุชุตูููุงุช | They're categories of things, of course, but there's only seven of them. |
ุฎุณุงุฑุฉ ุงูุฎูุงูุงุ ุชุญูููุงุช ูู ุงููุฑูู
ูุณูู
ุงุชุ ุชุดูููุงุช ูู ุงูู
ูุชูููุฏุฑูุง...ุฅูุฎ | Cell loss, mutations in chromosomes, mutations in the mitochondria and so on. |
ุฃููุงูุ ุฃุฑูุฏ ุชูุถูุญ ุงูุณูุจุจ ูุฑุงุก ุงุนุชุจุงุฑ ูุฐู ุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ ูุงู
ูุฉ | First of all, I'd like to give you an argument for why that list is complete. |
ูุณุชุทูุน ุฅุนุทุงุก ุชุจุฑูุฑ "ุฃุญูุงุฆู" | Of course one can make a biological argument. |
ูููููุ ุญุณูุงูุ ู
ุง ุงููุฐู ุชุชูููู ู
ูู ุฃุฌุณุงุฏูุง | One can say, "OK, what are we made of?" |
ู
ู ุงูุฎูุงูุง ูู
ุง ุจูู ุงูุฎูุงูุง | We're made of cells and stuff between cells. |
ุฃูู ูู
ูู ุฃู ูุชุฑุงูู
"ุงูุชููู" | What can damage accumulate in? |
ุงูุฌูุงุจุ ูู ุงูุฎูุงูุง ุทูููุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑ ุญูุซ ูู ุญุฏุซ ุชูู ูู ุงูุฎูุงูุง ูุตูุฑุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑุ ูุณุชูุชูู ูู
ุง ูู ุงูุญุงู ุนูุฏู
ุง ูุญุฏุซ ุงูุชุญููู ุงูุจุฑูุชููู ูู ุงูุฎูุงูุง... ูุงูุชููู ุณููุชูู ู
ุนูุง ุฃูุถุงู | The answer is: long-lived molecules, because if a short-lived molecule undergoes damage, but then the molecule is destroyed -- like by a protein being destroyed by proteolysis -- then the damage is gone, too. |
ูุฐุง ููุง ุจุฏ ุฃู ูุญุฏุซ ูุฐุง ูู ุงูุฌุฒูุฆุงุช ุงูุทูููุฉ ุงูุนู
ุฑ | It's got to be long-lived molecules. |
ุฌู
ูุน ูุฐู ุงูุฃุณุจุงุจ ุชู
ูุช ุฏุฑุงุณุชูุง ูู ุนูู
ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉ ู
ูุฐ ุฒู
ู ุจุนูุฏ ููุฐุง ุดูุก ุฌููุฏุ ุญูุซ ูุนูู ุฃููู ูู
ุน ุฃูููุง ูุนูู
ุฃูุซุฑ ุงูุขู ูู ุนููู
ุงูุฃุญูุงุกุ ูู
ุน ุฐูู ูู
ูุฌุฏ ุฃู ุฃุณุจุงุจ ุฅุถุงููุฉุ ุนูู ูุฐู ุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ ู
ู
ูุง ูุคููุฏ ุฃูุซุฑ ุนุฏู
ุงุญุชู
ุงููุฉ ูุฌูุฏ ุฃุณุจุงุจ ุฃุฎุฑู.. | So, these seven things were all under discussion in gerontology a long time ago and that is pretty good news, because it means that, you know, we've come a long way in biology in these 20 years, so the fact that we haven't extended this list is a pretty good indication that there's no extension to be done. |
ูุงูุฃูุถู ู
ู ุฐููุ ููุญู ูุนุฑู ููู ูุตูุญ ุฌู
ูุน ูุฐู ุงูุฃุดูุงุก... ูู ุงููุฆุฑุงู... ูุธุฑููุงู... ูุฃุนูู ูุธุฑููุงูุ ุจุฃูููุง ูู
ูู ุฃู ูุจุฏุฃ ุจุชุทุจูู ูุฐู ุงูููุธุฑููุงุช ุฎูุงู ุงูุนูุฏ ุงููุงุฏู
... | However, it's better than that; we actually know how to fix them all, in mice, in principle -- and what I mean by in principle is, we probably can actually implement these fixes within a decade. |
ุจุนุถูุง ูุฏ ุชู
ู ุชุทุจููู ุจุงููุนู... ููู ุงููุชู ุชุธูุฑ ูู ุฃููู ุงููุงุฆู
ุฉ... | Some of them are partially implemented already, the ones at the top. |
ููุณ ููุงู ู
ุชูุณุน ู
ู ุงูููุช ูุฃุชุญุฏูุซ ุนููู
ููููู
... ุจุงูู
ูุฎูุตุ ูู ุฃู
ูููุง ุงูุญุตูู ุนูู ุชู
ููู ูุงูู ุณูุชู
ููู ู
ู ุงููุตูู ุฅูู "ุชุฌุฏูุฏ ุงููููุฉ ูุงูุดูุจุงุจ" ุฎูุงู ุนุดุฑ ุณููุงุช ู
ู ุงูุขู ูููู ุนูููุง ุฃู ูุฃุฎุฐ ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ุนูู ู
ุญู
ู ุงูุฌุฏ | I haven't got time to go through them at all, but my conclusion is that, if we can actually get suitable funding for this, then we can probably develop robust mouse rejuvenation in only 10 years, but we do need to get serious about it. |
ุนูููุง ุฃู ูุจุฏุฃ ุจุงูู
ุญุงููุฉ | We do need to really start trying. |
ุจุงูุทุจุน ูุฏููุง ุนูู
ุงุก ุฃุญูุงุก ูู ูุฐุง ุงูุฌู
ููุฑ ูุฃูุฏู ุฅุนุทุงุก ุจุนุถ ุงูุฅุฌุงุจุงุช ููุฃุณุฆูุฉ ุงููุชู ูุฏููู
... | So of course, there are some biologists in the audience, and I want to give some answers to some of the questions that you may have. |
ูุฏ ูุง ูููู ูุฐุง ุงูุญุฏูุซ ู
ุฑุถูุงู ุชู
ุงู
ุงู ุจุงูููุณุจุฉ ุฅูููู
ุ ูููู ุนูููู
ุงูุฐููุงุจ ูุงููุฑุงุกุฉ ุนู ูุฐุง ุงูู
ูุถูุนุ | You may have been dissatisfied with this talk, but fundamentally you have to go and read this stuff. |
ููุฏ ูุชุจุช ุงูุนุฏูุฏ ู
ู ุงูุฃุจุญุงุซ ุญููู... ูุฃุณุชุดูุฏ ุจุงููุซูุฑ ู
ู ุงูุชุฌุงุฑุจ ุงูุนู
ูููุฉ ุงูุชู ุชุจุฑูุฑ ูุธุฑุชู ุงูู
ุชูุงุฆูุฉ ุญูู ูุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ... ูููุงู ุงููุซูุฑ ู
ู ุงูุชูุงุตูู ุงูุฃุฎุฑู ููุงู... | I've published a great deal on this; I cite the experimental work on which my optimism is based, and there's quite a lot of detail there. |
ูุฐู ุงูุชูุงุตูู... ูู ู
ุง ูุฌุนููู ูุงุซูุงู ู
ู ุงูุฃุฒู
ูุฉ ุงููุตูุฑุฉ ุงููุชู ุฃุชูุจูุฃ ุจูุง ููุง... | The detail is what makes me confident of my rather aggressive time frames that I'm predicting here. |
ูุฃุฐุง ููุชู
ุชุธูููู ุฃูููู ุนูู ุฎุทุฃ ูุนูููู
ุฃู ุชุฐูุจูุง ูุชุจุญุซูุง ูุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ุฌูุฏุงู ุฃูููุงู | So if you think that I'm wrong, you'd better damn well go and find out why you think I'm wrong. |
ูุงูุฃูู
ู
ู ุฐูู ุฃููุง ุชุซููุง... ุจู
ู ูุทูููู ุนูู ุฃููุณูู
ููุจ ุนูู
ุงุก ุงูุดููุฎูุฎุฉ ุญูุซ ูู
ุง ูู ุงูุญุงูุ ูู ุฃู ุชุบููุฑ ุฌุฐุฑู ูู ุงูููุฑ ุงูุนูู
ู ูู ุฃู ู
ุฌุงู ูุฅูู ููุงู ุงููุซูุฑ ู
ู ุงูู
ูุงูู
ุฉ ุจูู ุงูููุงุณ ุงููุฐูู ูู
ุซูููู ุงูุชููุงุฑ ุงูุชููููุฏู ุญูุซ ูุง ูุฃุฎุฐูู ูุฐู ุงูุฃู
ูุฑ ุนูู ู
ุญู
ู ุงูุฌุฏ | And of course the main thing is that you shouldn't trust people who call themselves gerontologists because, as with any radical departure from previous thinking within a particular field, you know, you expect people in the mainstream to be a bit resistant and not really to take it seriously. |
ูุฐุง ูุนูููู
ุฃู ุชููู
ูุง ุจูุงุฌุจูู
... ูุชุชุฃูุฏูุง ุฅู ูุงู ูุฐุง ุงูุฃู
ุฑ ุญูููููุงู ุฃู
ูุง | So, you know, you've got to actually do your homework, in order to understand whether this is true. |
ูุณุฃููู ุงูุขู ุจุจุถุนุฉ ุฃุดูุงุก | And we'll just end with a few things. |
ุฃูููุงูุ ุชุนูู
ูู ุฃูููู
ุณุชุณุชู
ุนูู ู
ู ุดุฎุต ู
ุง ูู ุงูู
ุญุงุถุฑุฉ ุงูุชูุงููุฉ ุงููุฐู ูุงู ูู ุงูู
ุงุถู ุฃููู ูุณุชุทูุน ุฃู ูุฌุฏ ุงูุชุณูุณู ุงูุฌููู ููุฅูุณุงู ููุงู ุงูุฌู
ูุน "ุฃู ูุฐุง ูุฑุงุก" | One thing is, you know, you'll be hearing from a guy in the next session who said some time ago that he could sequence the human genome in half no time, and everyone said, "Well, it's obviously impossible." |
ูุชุนูู
ูู ู
ุงุฐุง ุญุฏุซ | And you know what happened. |
ุฅูู ูุฐู ุงูุฃู
ูุฑ ุชุญุฏุซ | So, you know, this does happen. |
ูุฏููุง ุงุณุชุฑุงุชูุฌูุงุช ู
ุชุนุฏูุฏุฉ ุจูุฐุง ุงูุฎุตูุต... ููุฐู ุงูุฌุงุฆุฒุฉ ููู ุญูุงูุฒ ููุฅุจุชูุงุฑ ููููุตูู ุฅูู ู
ุง ุชุธูู ุฃููู ูู
ูู ุงููุตูู ุฅููู ูุณุชุญุตู ุนูู ุงูู
ุงู ุฅุฐุง ุฑุจุญุช ูููุง . | We have various strategies -- there's the Methuselah Mouse Prize, which is basically an incentive to innovate, and to do what you think is going to work, and you get money for it if you win. |
ููุงูู ุนุฑุถ ูุจูุงุก ู
ุนูุฏ | There's a proposal to actually put together an institute. |
ููู ู
ุง ุณููููู ุจุนุถ ุงูู
ุงู | This is what's going to take a bit of money. |
ูููู... ุฏุนูุง ูุฑู... ูู
ู
ู ุงูููุช ูุชุทููุจ ุฅููุงู ูุฐุง ุงูู
ุงู ุนูู ุญุฑุจ ูู ุงูุนุฑุงูุ | But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war in Iraq? |
ููุณ ููุชุงู ุทูููุงู... ุญุณูุงู ุฅุฐู... | Not very long. OK. |
ุนููู ุฃู ูุนุชู
ุฏ ุนูู ุงูุชูุจุฑูุนุงุช ูุฃู ุงูุจุญุซ ุนู ุงูุฑุจุญ ููุณุฏ ุงูุนูู
... ูููู ูุฏููุง ููุง ุงุญุชู
ุงููุฉ 90% ูููุตูู ุฅูู ูุชุงุฆุฌ ู
ุฑุถูุฉ | It's got to be philanthropic, because profits distract biotech, but it's basically got a 90 percent chance, I think, of succeeding in this. |
ูุฃุธูู ุฃูููุง ูุนูู
ุชู
ุงู
ุงู ููู ูุญุตู ุนูููุงุ ูุณุฃุชูููู ููุง. | And I think we know how to do it. And I'll stop there. |
ุดูุฑุงู | Thank you. |
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