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5,800 | AR6_WGII | 1,873 | 21 | Although climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Europe is increasing and will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors, the risk from malaria to human health in Europe remains low due to economic and social development as well as access to health care | medium | 1 | train |
5,801 | AR6_WGII | 1,874 | 3 | Under further warming, the number of months with risk of Vibrio transmission increases and the seasonal transmission window expands, thereby increasing the risk to human health in the future | high | 2 | train |
5,802 | AR6_WGII | 1,874 | 5 | Allergies and Pollen The main drivers of allergies are predominantly non-climatic (e.g., increased urbanisation, adoption of westernised lifestyles, social and genetic factors), but climate change strongly contributes to the spread of some allergenic plants, thus exacerbating existing allergies and causing new ones in people across Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,803 | AR6_WGII | 1,874 | 17 | Each of these major European heatwaves led to considerable economic losses in agriculture and construction | high | 2 | train |
5,804 | AR6_WGII | 1,874 | 27 | Mental Health and Well-Being Extreme weather events can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety and depression; this is well-documented for flooding in Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,805 | AR6_WGII | 1,875 | 3 | It shows that substantial social–cultural and institutional barriers complicate widespread implementation of measures; studies on the implementation of new blue–green spaces in existing urban structures in, for example, Sweden (Wihlborg et al., 2019), the UK (Carter et al., 2018) and the Netherlands (Aalbers et al., 2019), point to important feasibility challenges (e.g., access to financial resources, societal opposition, competition for space) | high | 2 | train |
5,806 | AR6_WGII | 1,875 | 6 | Existing health measures, such as monitoring and early warning systems, play an important role in detecting and communicating emerging climate risks and weather extremes | high | 2 | train |
5,807 | AR6_WGII | 1,875 | 13 | Combining multiple types of adaptation options into a consistent policy portfolio may have an amplifying effect in reducing risks, particularly at higher GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,808 | AR6_WGII | 1,876 | 1 | Coordination of health adaptation actions across scales and between public sectors is needed to ensure timely and effective responses for a diversity of health impacts | high | 2 | train |
5,809 | AR6_WGII | 1,876 | 16 | Urban poor and ethnic minorities often settle in more vulnerable settlement zones, and are therefore impacted more by flooding | medium | 1 | train |
5,810 | AR6_WGII | 1,876 | 23 | While it strengthens resilience for disadvantaged households (Church et al., 2015; Boost and Meier, 2017; Promberger, 2017; Vávra et al., 2018; Ančić et al., 2019; Pungas, 2019) and renews their local knowledge, it can become a risk in regions with projected crop yield reductions | high | 2 | train |
5,811 | AR6_WGII | 1,876 | 25 | While energy poverty is much more prevalent in SEU and EEU (Bouzarovski and Petrova, 2015; Pye et al., 2015; Atsalis et al., 2016; Monge-Barrio and Sánchez-Ostiz Gutiérrez, 2018), climate change will also exacerbate energy poverty in European regions where heating thus far has been the major share of energy costs | medium | 1 | train |
5,812 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 4 | Temperatures in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions have increased on average by 2°C over the past 30 years | very high | 3 | train |
5,813 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 5 | Future warming is expected to further increase winter precipitation | high | 2 | train |
5,814 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 7 | Warming and CO 2 increase result in higher plant productivity (Section 13.3), changes in plant community composition and higher parasite harassment; unstable ice conditions affect migration; extreme weather conditions during critical winter months, more frequent forest fires and changes in plant community composition reduce pasture quality | medium | 1 | train |
5,815 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 8 | High snow depth and rain-on-snow events impede reindeer access to ground lichen in winter and delay spring green-up during the critical calving period; both cause malnutrition and negative impacts on reindeer health, mortality and reproductive success | medium | 1 | train |
5,816 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 9 | Lower slaughter weights and increased mortality reduce the income of herders | high | 2 | train |
5,817 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 10 | Reindeer herders already autonomously adapt to changing conditions through flexible use of pastures and supplementary feeding | high | 2 | train |
5,818 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 11 | However, adaptive herding practices have themselves added significant burden through increased workload, costs and stress | high | 2 | train |
5,819 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 12 | Supplementary feeding increases the risk of infectious diseases and implies culturally undesirable herding practices | low | 0 | train |
5,820 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 13 | Rapid land-use change reduces the ability to adapt | high | 2 | train |
5,821 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 14 | National and EU policies expand land uses for mining, wind energy and bioeconomy in the area, causing loss, fragmentation and degradation of pastures, and increasing human disturbance to animals | medium | 1 | train |
5,822 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 16 | Herding communities face strong barriers to protecting their rights and halting further degradation of pastures | medium | 1 | train |
5,823 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 18 | Combined with land-use conflicts, climate impacts cause reduced psycho-social health and increase suicidal thoughts among herders | low | 0 | train |
5,824 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 20 | The cumulative effects of land-use and climate change have already increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding to the extent that its long-term sustainability is threatened | medium | 1 | train |
5,825 | AR6_WGII | 1,879 | 22 | Lack of control over land use is the biggest and most urgent threat to the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding and the right of Sámi to their culture | high | 2 | test |
5,826 | AR6_WGII | 1,882 | 1 | The exposure of European countries to trans-European climate impact and risk pathways varies depending on their territorial settings, national policies and position in the global supply chain | high | 2 | train |
5,827 | AR6_WGII | 1,882 | 6 | Simultaneous breadbasket failures, and trade restrictions, increase risks to food supply | medium | 1 | train |
5,828 | AR6_WGII | 1,884 | 2 | There is emerging evidence that supporting adaptation outside Europe may generate economic co-benefits for Europe (Román et al., 2018).13.10 Detection and Attribution, Key Risks and Adaptation Pathways 13.10.1 Detection and Attribution of Impacts Since AR5, scientific documentation of observed changes attributed to global warming have proliferated | high | 2 | train |
5,829 | AR6_WGII | 1,884 | 3 | These include ecosystem changes detected in previous assessments, such as earlier annual greening and onset of faunal reproduction processes, relocation of species towards higher latitudes and altitudes (high confidence), and impacts of heat on human health and productivity | high | 2 | train |
5,830 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 1 | In recent decades (2000–2015), economic losses intensified in SEU (high confidence) and were detected for parts of WCE and NEU | medium | 1 | train |
5,831 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 13 | The risk of human heat stress and mortality is largely influenced by underlying socioeconomic pathways, with consequences being more severe under SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios than SSP1 | very high | 3 | train |
5,832 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 15 | The impact of warming in marine systems are often synergistic with SLR in coastal systems and ocean acidification driven by the rise in CO 2, while habitat fragmentation and land use have important synergies in terrestrial systems | high | 2 | train |
5,833 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 22 | The transition to moderate risk is currently happening as warming already results in changes in timing of development, species migration northward and upwards, and desynchronisation of species interactions, especially at the range limits, with cascading and cumulative impacts through ecosystems and food webs | high | 2 | train |
5,834 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 25 | The transition is happening at slightly higher warming in terrestrial systems due to a higher number of thermal refugia in terrestrial systems causing relocation but not already severe impacts | medium | 1 | train |
5,835 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 28 | Whether or not adaptation measures are effective to reduce risk severity for people’s health depends on local context | high | 2 | train |
5,836 | AR6_WGII | 1,886 | 29 | Some adaptation options are found to be highly effective across Europe irrespective of warming levels, including air conditioning and urban planning | high | 2 | train |
5,837 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 3 | To reach high adaptation, a combination of low, medium and high effectiveness measures in different sectors and sub-regions is needed, many of which entail systems’ transformations (e.g., heat-proof land management) (Chapter 16) and remain effective at higher warming levels | medium | 1 | train |
5,838 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 6 | A reduction of non-climatic stressors, such as nutrient loads, resource extraction, habitat fragmentation or pesticides on land, are considered important adaptation options to increase the resilience to climate-change impacts | high | 2 | train |
5,839 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 7 | A major governance tool to reduce climatic and non-climatic impacts is the establishment of networks of protected areas (Sections 13.3.2, 13.4.2) especially when aggregated, zoned or linked with corridors for migration | high | 2 | train |
5,840 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 8 | Reforestation, rewilding and habitat restoration are long-term strategies for reducing risk for biodiversity loss supported by assisted migration and evolution (Section 13.3.2, 13.4), though current laws and regulations do not include species migration | high | 2 | train |
5,841 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 11 | Projected SLR will strongly impact coastal ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
5,842 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 20 | There will be also broader adverse impacts such as reduction of grassland biomass production for fodder, increases in weeds and reduction in pollination | medium | 1 | train |
5,843 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 26 | Under high adaptation, the use of irrigation can substantially reduce risk by both reducing canopy temperature and drought impacts | high | 2 | train |
5,844 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 29 | Crop production is a major consumer of water in agriculture (Gerveni et al., 2020), yet a potentially scarcer supply of water in some regions must be distributed across many needs (KR3, Section 13.10.2.3), limiting availability to agriculture which is currently the main user of water in many regions of Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,845 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 30 | Where the ability to irrigate is limited by water availability, other adaptation options are insufficient to mitigate crop losses in some sub-regions, particularly at 3°C GWL and above, with an increase in risk from north to south and higher risk for late-season crops such as maize | high | 2 | train |
5,846 | AR6_WGII | 1,887 | 31 | Under these conditions, land abandonment is projected | low | 0 | train |
5,847 | AR6_WGII | 1,888 | 3 | Evidence from the detected changes and attribution assessment suggests that the risk is already moderate in SEU (e.g., 48 million people exposed to moderate water scarcity between 1981 and 2010) | high | 2 | train |
5,848 | AR6_WGII | 1,888 | 7 | Socioeconomic conditions contributing to severe consequences are when more residents settle in drought-prone regions, or when the share of agriculture in GDP declines | high | 2 | train |
5,849 | AR6_WGII | 1,888 | 8 | For Europe, risks of water scarcity will be higher under SSP5 and SSP3 than under SSP1 | medium | 1 | train |
5,850 | AR6_WGII | 1,888 | 10 | This transition will happen at higher warming in WCE since risks are projected to increase less rapidly (transition between 2°C and 3°C GWL) | medium | 1 | train |
5,851 | AR6_WGII | 1,888 | 11 | At 3°C GWL and beyond, water scarcity will become much more widespread and severe in already water-scarce areas in SEU (high confidence) and will expand to currently non-water-scarce regions in WCE | medium | 1 | train |
5,852 | AR6_WGII | 1,889 | 13 | Coastal areas have already started to be affected by SLR (see Box 13.1; Section 13.10.1) and human exposure to coastal hazards is projected to increase in the next decades (high confidence), but less under SSP1 (20%) than SSP5 (50%) by the end of the century | medium | 1 | train |
5,853 | AR6_WGII | 1,889 | 14 | Under low adaptation (i.e., coastal defences are maintained but not further strengthened), severe consequences include an increase in expected annual damage by a factor of at least 20 for 1.5°C–2.1°C GWL (i.e., high risks) and by two to three orders of magnitude between 2°C and 3°C GWL in EU-28 (i.e., very high risk) | medium | 1 | train |
5,854 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 1 | Pluvial and riverine flood events in Europe have been attributed to climate change, but the associated damages and losses also depend on land-use planning and flood risk management practices | medium | 1 | train |
5,855 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 8 | Soft limits to protection have been identified under high GWL, in particular due to the rate of change and delayed impacts of long-term SLR | medium | 1 | train |
5,856 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 9 | Ecosystem-based solutions, such as wetlands, can reduce waves’ propagation, provide co-benefits for the environment and climate mitigation, and reduce costs for flood defences | medium | 1 | train |
5,857 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 15 | Both protection and flood retention are effective in reducing inland flooding risk across Europe, but with regional variation in the benefit-to-cost ratio | medium | 1 | train |
5,858 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 20 | While there is a wide range in quantifications, there is high agreement that the consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems can be substantial, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north (very high confidence); and there is some indication also for a west-to-east gradient, with higher uncertainty in eastern WCE and EEU, which makes adaptation more challenging | medium | 1 | train |
5,859 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 21 | Furthermore, the food–water–energy–land nexus plays an important role in amplifying overall risk levels in Europe | medium | 1 | train |
5,860 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 22 | Southern Europe, European cities and coastal areas are projected to become hotspots of multiple risks | high | 2 | train |
5,861 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 23 | The number of people exposed to multiple KRs in Europe are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL (Forzieri et al., 2017; Byers et al., 2018; Arnell et al., 2019), but risk levels are already higher at 1.5°C GWL than today for a number of KRs | medium | 1 | train |
5,862 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 24 | Economic losses and damages for European economies from multiple KRs are projected to increase | high | 2 | train |
5,863 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 26 | The main driver for this increase in economic losses and damages is mortality due to heat stress (me- dium confidence), followed by reduced labour productivity, coastal and inland flooding, water scarcity and drought | medium | 1 | train |
5,864 | AR6_WGII | 1,891 | 28 | Adaptation is projected to reduce macroeconomic costs, but residual costs will remain particularly for warming above 3°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,865 | AR6_WGII | 1,894 | 29 | Progress is also observed at the level of the EU with the adoption of the new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change in 2021 (European Comission, 2021a), and regionally, particularly in federalist and decentralised states (Steurer and Clar, 2018; EEA, 2020b; Pietrapertosa et al., 2021), and locally, with an increasing number of European cities planning for climate risks | high | 2 | train |
5,866 | AR6_WGII | 1,894 | 30 | There is evidence of action across sectors and scales, even in European countries where national adaptation frameworks are absent | medium | 1 | train |
5,867 | AR6_WGII | 1,895 | 4 | The availability of knowledge, human and financial resources appears important for proactive adaptation (Termeer et al., 2012; Sanderson et al., 2018), while adaptation is also strongly dependent on economic and social development | high | 2 | train |
5,868 | AR6_WGII | 1,895 | 13 | Yet, high GWL scenarios beyond 2100 are often not considered in climate-change adaptation planning due to a lack of perceived usability, missing socioeconomic information, constraining institutional settings and conflicting decision-making timeframes | medium | 1 | train |
5,869 | AR6_WGII | 1,895 | 17 | Adaptive planning and decision making are still limited across Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,870 | AR6_WGII | 1,895 | 24 | Since AR5, progress has been made to increase coordinated adaptation actions, but so far this is limited to a few sectors (mostly water management and agriculture) and European countries and regions (mostly SEU, and WCE depending on impact) | high | 2 | train |
5,871 | AR6_WGII | 1,895 | 25 | Despite evidence of emerging bottom-up (e.g., citizens and business) and top-down initiatives (e.g., governmental plans and instruments to ensure action), there are considerable barriers to mainstreaming adaptation | high | 2 | train |
5,872 | AR6_WGII | 1,896 | 12 | With higher warming levels, financing needs are likely to increase | high | 2 | train |
5,873 | AR6_WGII | 1,896 | 21 | Whereas some sectors, such as flood management, banking and insurance, and energy (Bank of England, 2015; Gasbarro and Pinkse, 2016; Bank of England, 2019; Botzen et al., 2019), have generally made moderate progress on adaptation planning across Europe, there are key vulnerable economic sectors that are in earlier stages, including aviation (Burbidge, 2018), ports and shipping (Becker et al., 2018; Ng et al., 2018), and ICT | high | 2 | train |
5,874 | AR6_WGII | 1,897 | 10 | Perceived personal responsibility for tackling climate change remains low across the EU (Figure 13.35) and partly explains why household adaptation remains limited | high | 2 | train |
5,875 | AR6_WGII | 1,897 | 11 | Householders’ risk perception and concern about climate change fluctuates in response to media coverage and significant weather or sociopolitical events | high | 2 | train |
5,876 | AR6_WGII | 1,897 | 12 | On average across Europe, and particularly in relation to gradual change, compared with experts, non-experts continue to underestimate climate-change risks | medium | 1 | train |
5,877 | AR6_WGII | 1,898 | 4 | As well as temporal trends in climate-change risk perception, the lit- erature since AR5 continues to show much heterogeneity (both within and between nations) among householders in respect of risk percep- tion | high | 2 | train |
5,878 | AR6_WGII | 1,898 | 6 | Stronger evidence exists since AR5 that experience of extreme weather events can shape climate-change risk perceptions, if these events are attributed to climate change or evoke negative emotions | high | 2 | train |
5,879 | AR6_WGII | 1,898 | 10 | Adaptation responses across European regions and sectors are more often incremental than transformative | medium | 1 | train |
5,880 | AR6_WGII | 1,898 | 13 | This includes extreme weather events, financial crises, for example in Malmö (Anderson, 2014; Isaksson and Heikkinen, 2018), and the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., Milan), all of which have disrupted the status quo and accelerated innovation and implementation (e.g., Milan; see Box 13.3; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7).Considerable barriers exist that prevent system transitions from taking place in Europe, including institutional and behavioural lock-ins such as administrative routines, certain types of legislation and dominant paradigms of problem solving | high | 2 | train |
5,881 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 2 | Addressing these risks has been made more urgent by delays due to misinformation about climate science that has sowed uncertainty and impeded recognition of risk | high | 2 | train |
5,882 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 5 | Immediate, widespread and coordinated implementation of adaptation measures aimed at reducing risks and focused on equity have the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans, ensure sustainable livelihoods and protect the long-term biodiversity, and ecological and economic productivity, in North America | high | 2 | train |
5,883 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 8 | Despite scientific certainty of the anthropogenic influence on climate change, misinformation and politicisation of climate-change science has created polarisation in public and policy domains in North America, particularly in the USA, limiting climate action | high | 2 | train |
5,884 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 9 | Vested interests have generated rhetoric and misinformation that undermines climate science and disregards risk and urgency | medium | 1 | train |
5,885 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 10 | Resultant public misperception of climate risks and polarised public support for climate actions is delaying urgent adaptation planning and implementation | high | 2 | train |
5,886 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 13 | High temperatures have increased mortality and morbidity (very high confidence), with impacts that vary by age, gender, location and socioeconomic conditions | very high | 3 | train |
5,887 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 16 | For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.increased risk of vector-borne (very high confidence), water-borne (high confidence) and food-borne diseases | very high | 3 | train |
5,888 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 17 | Changes in climate and extreme events have been linked to wide- ranging negative mental health outcomes | high | 2 | train |
5,889 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 18 | The loss of access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impacted the nutrition of subsistence-dependent communities across North America | high | 2 | train |
5,890 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 19 | Climate change has increased the extent of warmer and drier conditions favourable for wildfires (medium confidence) that increase respiratory distress from smoke | very high | 3 | train |
5,891 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 21 | Climate change and extreme weather events have impacted North American agroecosystems | high | 2 | train |
5,892 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 22 | Climate change has generally reduced agricultural productivity by 12.5% since 1961, with progressively greater losses moving south from Canada to Mexico and in drought-prone rain-fed systems | high | 2 | train |
5,893 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 23 | Loss of availability and access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impaired food security and nutrition of subsistence-dependent Indigenous Peoples across North America | high | 2 | train |
5,894 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 24 | Climate change has impacted aquaculture (high confidence) and induced rapid redistribution of species (very high confidence), and population declines of multiple key fisheries | high | 2 | train |
5,895 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 26 | Reduced snowpack and earlier runoff | high | 2 | train |
5,896 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 27 | Recent severe droughts, floods and harmful algal and pathogen events have caused harm to large populations and key eco- nomic sectors | high | 2 | train |
5,897 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 28 | Heavy exploitation of limited water supplies, especially in the western USA and northern Mexico, and deteriorating freshwater management infrastructure, have heightened the risks | high | 2 | train |
5,898 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 29 | Effective examples of freshwater resource adaptation planning are already underway, but coordinated adapta- tion implementation across multiple conflicting interests and users is complicated and time-consuming | high | 2 | train |
5,899 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 31 | Larger losses and adaptation costs are observed for sectors with high climate exposures, including tourism, fisheries, and agriculture (high confidence) and outdoor labour | medium | 1 | train |
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