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5,900 | AR6_WGII | 1,942 | 32 | Disaster planning and spending, insurance, markets, and individual and household-level adaptation have acted to moderate effects to date | medium | 1 | train |
5,901 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 2 | Impacts are particularly apparent for Indigenous Peoples for whom culture, identity, commerce, health and well-being are closely connected to a resilient environment | very high | 3 | train |
5,902 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 3 | Higher temperatures have been associated with violent and property crime in the USA | medium | 1 | train |
5,903 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 5 | Rising air, water, ocean and ground temperatures have restructured ecosystems and contributed to the redistribution (very high confidence) and mortality | high | 2 | train |
5,904 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 6 | Extreme heat and precipitation trends on land have increased vegetation stress and mortality, reduced soil quality and altered ecosystem processes including carbon and freshwater cycling | very high | 3 | train |
5,905 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 7 | Warm and dry conditions associated with climate change have led to tree die-offs (high confidence) and increased prevalence of catastrophic wildfire (medium confidence) with an increase in the size of severely burned areas in western North America | medium | 1 | train |
5,906 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 8 | Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and ecosystem-based management have been effective adaptation approaches in the past but are increasingly exceeded by climate extremes | medium | 1 | train |
5,907 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 10 | Climate change has contributed to cascading environmental and sociocultural impacts in the Arctic (high to very high confidence) that have adversely, and often irreversibly, altered Northern livelihoods, cultural activities, essential services, health, food and nutritional security, community connectivity and well-being | high | 2 | train |
5,908 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 13 | Humidity-enhanced heat stress, aridification and extreme precipitation events that lead to severe flooding, erosion, debris flows and ultimately loss of ecosystem function, life and property are projected to intensify | high | 2 | train |
5,909 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 15 | Warming is projected to increase heat-related mortality (very high confidence) and morbidity | medium | 1 | train |
5,910 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 16 | Vector-borne disease transmission, water-borne disease risks, food safety risks and mental health outcomes are projected to increase this century | high | 2 | train |
5,911 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 17 | Available adaptation options will be less effective or unable to protect human health under high-emission scenarios | high | 2 | train |
5,912 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 19 | Climate change will continue to shift North American agricultural and fishery suitability ranges (high confidence) and intensify production losses of key crops (high confidence), livestock (medium confidence), fisheries (high confidence) and aquaculture products | medium | 1 | train |
5,913 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 20 | In the absence of mitigation, incremental adaptation measures may not be sufficient to address rapidly changing conditions and extreme events, increasing the need for cross-sectoral coordination in implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures | high | 2 | train |
5,914 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 21 | Combining sustainable intensification, approaches based on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, and ecosystem-based methods with inclusive and self- determined decision making, will result in more equitable food and nutritional security | high | 2 | train |
5,915 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 23 | Hotter droughts and progressive loss of seasonal water storage in snow and ice will tend to reduce summer season stream flows in much of western North America, while population growth, extensive irrigated agriculture and the needs of threatened and endangered aquatic species will continue to place high demands on those flows | high | 2 | train |
5,916 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 26 | Hard limits to adaptation may be reached for outdoor labour (medium confidence) and nature-based winter tourism activities | very high | 3 | train |
5,917 | AR6_WGII | 1,943 | 27 | At higher levels of warming, climate impacts may pose systemic risks to financial markets through impacts on transportation systems, supply chains and major infrastructure, as well as global-scale challenges to trade | medium | 1 | train |
5,918 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 3 | Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples’ Rights, and supporting adaptation underpinned by Indigenous knowledge are critical to reducing climate-change risks to achieve adaptation success | very high | 3 | train |
5,919 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 6 | Widespread adoption of these practices and tools for infrastructure planning, disaster risk reduction, ecosystem management, budgeting practices, insurance, and climate risk reporting supports planning for a future with more climate risks | high | 2 | train |
5,920 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 7 | Increased capacity to support the equitable resolution of existing and emerging resource disputes (local to international) will reduce climate impacts on livelihoods and improve the effectiveness of resource management | high | 2 | train |
5,921 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 9 | Recognition of the need for adaptation across North America is increasing, but action has been mostly gradual, incremental and reactive | high | 2 | train |
5,922 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 10 | Current practices will be increasingly insufficient without coordination and integration of efforts through equitable policy focused on modifying land-use impacts, consumption patterns, economic activities and emphasising NbS | high | 2 | test |
5,923 | AR6_WGII | 1,944 | 11 | Transformational, long-term adaptation action that reduces risk and increases resilience can address rapidly escalating impacts in the long-term, especially if coupled with moderate to high mitigation measures | high | 2 | train |
5,924 | AR6_WGII | 1,947 | 10 | Annual precipitation has increased in recent decades in northern and eastern areas (CA-PR, CA-QU, US-NP , US-SP , US-MW, US-NE, US-AK) (high confidence), and has decreased across the western part of the continent (CA-BC, US-SW, US-NW, MX-NW) | medium | 1 | train |
5,925 | AR6_WGII | 1,947 | 17 | This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Snowpack and snow extent across much of Canada and the western USA have declined as temperatures have increased | very high | 3 | train |
5,926 | AR6_WGII | 1,947 | 30 | High Arctic sea ice retreat since 1971 and increases in open- water duration in the most recent decade are unprecedented (Box et al., 2019) and most pronounced in the Chukchi, Bering and Beaufort seas (US-AK, CA-NW) | high | 2 | train |
5,927 | AR6_WGII | 1,947 | 31 | Warming of North American offshore waters is significant and attributable to human activities, particularly along the Atlantic coast, contributing to sea level rise (SLR) through thermal expansion | very high | 3 | train |
5,928 | AR6_WGII | 1,948 | 12 | Acidification of North American coastal waters has occurred in conjunction with increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Mathis et al., 2015; Jewett and Romanou, 2017; Claret et al., 2018) combined with other local acidifying inputs such as nitrogen and sulphur deposition (Doney et al., 2007) and freshwater nutrient input | very high | 3 | train |
5,929 | AR6_WGII | 1,948 | 19 | Total precipitation is projected to increase across the northern half of North America (very high confidence) and decrease in southwest North America (MX-SW, MX-NW, US-SW) | medium | 1 | train |
5,930 | AR6_WGII | 1,949 | 2 | As temperatures rise, snow extent, duration of snow cover and accumulated snowpack are virtually certain to decline in subarctic regions of North America (Gutierrez et al., 2021a; McCrary and Mearns, 2019; Mudryk et al., 2021), with corresponding effects on snow- related hydrological changes | high | 2 | train |
5,931 | AR6_WGII | 1,949 | 4 | Climate change is projected to magnify the impact of tropical cyclones in US-NE, MX-NE, US-SP, and US-SE by increasing rainfall (Patricola and Wehner, 2018) and extreme wind speed | high | 2 | train |
5,932 | AR6_WGII | 1,949 | 5 | The coastal region at severe risk from tropical storms is projected to expand northward within US- NE (medium confidence) (Kossin et al., 2017).Additional reduction in polar sea ice is virtually certain (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Mudryk et al., 2021), with the North American Arctic projected to be seasonally ice free at least once per decade under 2°C of global warming | high | 2 | train |
5,933 | AR6_WGII | 1,949 | 6 | Duration of freshwater lake ice across the northern USA and southern Canada is projected to diminish | high | 2 | train |
5,934 | AR6_WGII | 1,949 | 11 | Ocean acidification (OA) along North American coastlines is projected to increase | very high | 3 | train |
5,935 | AR6_WGII | 1,950 | 22 | Despite expert scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, there is polarisation and an ongoing debate over the reality of anthropogenic climate change in the public and policy domains, with attendant risks to society | high | 2 | train |
5,936 | AR6_WGII | 1,950 | 25 | Rhetoric and misinformation on climate change and the deliberate undermining of science have contributed to misperceptions of the scientific consensus, uncertainty, disregarded risk and urgency, and dissent | high | 2 | train |
5,937 | AR6_WGII | 1,951 | 1 | Vocal groups can affect public discourse and weaken public support for climate mitigation and adaptation policies | medium | 1 | train |
5,938 | AR6_WGII | 1,951 | 17 | Political affiliation and partisan group identity contribute to polarisation on the causes and state of climate change, most notably in the USA | medium | 1 | train |
5,939 | AR6_WGII | 1,951 | 22 | Communicating to educate or enhance knowledge on climate-change science or consensus can, but does not necessarily lead individuals to revise their beliefs | medium | 1 | train |
5,940 | AR6_WGII | 1,952 | 12 | Psychological distancing–the perception that the greatest impacts occur sometime in the distant future and to people and places far away–can lead to discounting of risk and the need for adaptation | medium | 1 | train |
5,941 | AR6_WGII | 1,953 | 4 | Defining coherent groups based on variations in beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences offers opportunities for effectively engaging with segments of the population instead of using the same approach for everyone | low | 0 | train |
5,942 | AR6_WGII | 1,953 | 20 | Current and projected climate-change impacts disproportionately harm Indigenous Peoples’ livelihoods and economies | very high | 3 | train |
5,943 | AR6_WGII | 1,953 | 27 | Climate-change impacts have harmful effects on Indigenous Peoples’ public health, physical health and mental health, including harmful effects connected to the cultural and community foundations of health | very high | 3 | train |
5,944 | AR6_WGII | 1,955 | 5 | Such IK underpins successful climate-change adaptation and mitigation | very high | 3 | train |
5,945 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 8 | Indigenous self-determination and self-governance are the foundations of adaptive strategies that improve understanding and research on climate change, develop actionable community plans and policies on climate change, and have demonstrable influence in improving the design and allocation of national, regional and international programmes relating to climate change | very high | 3 | train |
5,946 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 17 | Ranges and abundances of species continue to shift in response to warming throughout North America | very high | 3 | train |
5,947 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 18 | Future climate change will continue to affect species and ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
5,948 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 20 | Climate-induced shifts in the timing of biological events (phenology) continue to be a well-documented ecological response | very high | 3 | train |
5,949 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 23 | Severe ecosystem consequences of warming and drying are well documented | very high | 3 | train |
5,950 | AR6_WGII | 1,956 | 24 | Significant ecosystem changes are expected from projected climate change | high | 2 | train |
5,951 | AR6_WGII | 1,957 | 2 | Climate-change impacts on natural disturbances have affected ecosystems (very high confidence) (Table 14.2; see Box 14.2), and these impacts will increase with future climate change | medium | 1 | train |
5,952 | AR6_WGII | 1,957 | 7 | Effects include widespread tree mortality (Allen et al., 2015; Kane et al., 2017; van Mantgem et al., 2018) and accelerated ecosystem transformation | medium | 1 | train |
5,953 | AR6_WGII | 1,957 | 10 | Projected climate change will cause habitat loss, alter physical and bio- logical processes, and decrease water quality in freshwater ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
5,954 | AR6_WGII | 1,957 | 23 | Effective climate-informed ecosystem management requires a well- coordinated suite of adaptation efforts (e.g., assessment, planning, funding, implementation and evaluation) that is co-produced among stakeholders, Indigenous Peoples and across sectors | high | 2 | train |
5,955 | AR6_WGII | 1,958 | 37 | Higher ocean temperatures have directly affected food-web structure (Gibert, 2019) and altered physiological rates, distribution, phenology and behaviour of marine species with cascading effects on food-web dynamics | very high | 3 | train |
5,956 | AR6_WGII | 1,958 | 38 | Pacific coastal waters from Mexico to Canada and US mid-Atlantic coastal waters have a high proportion of species (>5% of all marine species) near their upper thermal limit, representing hotspots of risk from MHWs | medium | 1 | train |
5,957 | AR6_WGII | 1,958 | 40 | Climate change has induced phenological and spatial shifts in primary productivity with cascading impacts on food webs | high | 2 | test |
5,958 | AR6_WGII | 1,959 | 1 | In response, increased burned area in recent decades in western North America has been facilitated by anthropogenic climate change | medium | 1 | train |
5,959 | AR6_WGII | 1,959 | 14 | Climate change is projected to increase fire activity in many places in North America during the coming decades (see also AR6, WGI, Chapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., 2021) (Boulanger et al., 2014; Williams et al., 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020), via longer fire seasons (Wotton and Flannigan, 1993; USGCRP , 2017), long-term warming (Villarreal et al., 2019; Wahl et al., 2019) and increased lightning frequency in some areas of the USA and Canada | medium | 1 | train |
5,960 | AR6_WGII | 1,959 | 17 | Impacts on Natural Systems Although fire is a natural process in many North American ecosystems, increases in burned area and severity of wildland fires have had significant impacts on natural ecosystems | medium | 1 | train |
5,961 | AR6_WGII | 1,959 | 24 | Projected future fire activity will continue to affect ecosystems and alter their structure and function | medium | 1 | train |
5,962 | AR6_WGII | 1,959 | 27 | Impacts on Human Systems Increased fire activity, partly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, has had direct and indirect effects on mortality and morbidity, economic losses and costs, key infrastructure, cultural resources and water resources | medium | 1 | train |
5,963 | AR6_WGII | 1,960 | 1 | Poor air quality from fires caused increased respiratory distress | very high | 3 | train |
5,964 | AR6_WGII | 1,960 | 18 | Adaptation Wildland fire risks are not equitably distributed as they intersect with exposure and socioeconomic attributes (e.g., age, income, ethnicity) to influence vulnerability and adaptive capacity | medium | 1 | train |
5,965 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 4 | Although innovative, holistic approaches to wildland fire management are becoming more common across North America, broader application is necessary to address the growing risks | medium | 1 | train |
5,966 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 10 | In North American Arctic marine systems, rapid warming is significant, with cascading impacts beyond polar regions (CCP6), and presents limited opportunities (tourism, shipping, extractive) but high risks (shipping, fishing industries, Indigenous subsistence and cultural activities) | high | 2 | train |
5,967 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 14 | Coral reefs in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coasts of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula are facing increasing risk of bleaching and mortality from warming ocean waters interacting with non-climate stressors | very high | 3 | train |
5,968 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 17 | Without mitigation to keep surface temperatures below a 2°C increase by the end of the century, up to 99% of coral reefs will be lost; however, 95% of reefs will still be lost even if warming is kept below 1.5°C | high | 2 | train |
5,969 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 19 | Sea level rise has led to flooding, erosion and damage to infrastructure along the western Gulf of Mexico, the southeast US coasts and the southern coast of the Gulf of St Lawrence | very high | 3 | train |
5,970 | AR6_WGII | 1,961 | 23 | Future seawater CO 2 levels have been shown in laboratory studies to negatively impact Pacific and Atlantic squid, bivalve, crab and fish species (Pacific cod), and indirectly alter food-web dynamics | high | 2 | train |
5,971 | AR6_WGII | 1,962 | 2 | Open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) are expanding in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific California Current and tropical oceans due to warming waters, stratification and changes in precipitation | medium | 1 | train |
5,972 | AR6_WGII | 1,962 | 5 | The OMZs and hypoxic events are projected to increase over the next century and may limit where fish can move | medium | 1 | train |
5,973 | AR6_WGII | 1,962 | 6 | Favourable conditions for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have expanded due to warming, more frequent extreme weather events (Gobler et al., 2017; Pershing et al., 2018; Trainer et al., 2019) and increased stratification, CO 2 concentration and nutrient inputs | high | 2 | train |
5,974 | AR6_WGII | 1,962 | 12 | Attribution of Sargassum blooms to climate change is still tenuous and complicated by multiple drivers and few observational data sources | low | 0 | train |
5,975 | AR6_WGII | 1,963 | 2 | Ocean management that utilises a portfolio of nested, multi-scale, climate-informed and ecosystem-based management approaches in North American waters can increase the resilience of marine ecosystems by addressing multiple stressors simultaneously | high | 2 | train |
5,976 | AR6_WGII | 1,963 | 4 | Dynamic ocean management policies may improve resilience of marine species and ecosystems to climate | medium | 1 | train |
5,977 | AR6_WGII | 1,963 | 15 | Adaptation will be impeded in cases where there are conflicts over competing interests or unintended consequences of uncoordinated efforts, heightening the importance of cooperative, scenario-based water resource planning and governance | high | 2 | train |
5,978 | AR6_WGII | 1,963 | 21 | Damages stem from extremity of the event and prior land-use and infrastructure decisions | high | 2 | train |
5,979 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 10 | Droughts have intensified tensions among competing water-use interests and accelerated depletion of groundwater resources | high | 2 | train |
5,980 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 11 | Climate trends are affecting riverine, lake and reservoir water quality | medium | 1 | train |
5,981 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 16 | Households and communities dependent on substandard wells, unimproved water sources or deficient water provision systems are more exposed than others to experience climate- related impairment of drinking water quality (Section 14.5.6.5; Allaire et al., 2018; Baeza et al., 2018; California State Water Resources Control Board, 2021; Navarro-Espinoza et al., 2021; Water and Tribes Initiative, 2021).14.5.3.2 Projected Impacts and Risks Climate change is projected to amplify current trends in water resource impacts, potentially reducing water supply security, impairing water quality and increasing flood hazards to varying degrees across North America | high | 2 | train |
5,982 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 18 | Projected long-term reduction in water availability in the southwest US and northern Mexico (e.g., from the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers) will have substantial ecological and economic impacts given the region’s heavy water demands | high | 2 | test |
5,983 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 24 | Other aquifers, especially those farther north, face uncertain or possibly increasing recharge | medium | 1 | train |
5,984 | AR6_WGII | 1,964 | 25 | Projected changes in temperature and precipitation present direct risks to North American water quality, varying with regional and watershed contexts (Chapra et al., 2017; Coffey et al., 2019; Paul et al., 2019a), and related to streamflow, population growth (Duran-Encalada et al., 2017) and land-use practices | medium | 1 | test |
5,985 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 11 | These changes directly influence crop productivity, quality and market price | high | 2 | train |
5,986 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 14 | Some crop loss events are partially attributed to climate change | high | 2 | train |
5,987 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 17 | Without adaptation, climate change is projected to reduce overall yields of important North American crops (e.g., wheat, maize, soybeans) | high | 2 | train |
5,988 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 19 | Warming and heat extremes will delay or prevent chill accumulation, affecting perennial crop development (e.g., fruit set failure), yield (e.g., walnuts, pistachios, stone fruit) and quality (e.g., grapes) | medium | 1 | train |
5,989 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 20 | Warming will alter the length of growing seasons of cold- season crops (e.g., broccoli, lettuce) and will shift suitability ranges of warm-season California crops (e.g., tomatoes) | medium | 1 | test |
5,990 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 21 | Increasing atmospheric CO 2 will enhance yields yet reduce nutrient content of many crops | high | 2 | train |
5,991 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 22 | Crop pest and pathogen outbreaks are expected to worsen under climate change | high | 2 | train |
5,992 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 23 | Climate change is anticipated to cause declines in livestock production across North America | high | 2 | train |
5,993 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 25 | Projected aridification reduces forage production in the southwest USA and northern Mexico (high confidence) (Polley et al., 2013; Reeves et al., 2014; Cooley, 2016; Bradford et al., 2020) and transforms grasslands into woody shrublands (Briske et al., 2015; Murray-Tortarolo et al., 2018), while warmer and wetter conditions in the northern regions (CA-PR, US-NW, US-NP) may enhance rangeland production by extending growing seasons | high | 2 | train |
5,994 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 26 | Increased CO 2 will enhance production (medium confidence) but reduce forage quality | high | 2 | train |
5,995 | AR6_WGII | 1,967 | 27 | Climate-change impacts on forests (Section 14.5.1; see Box 14.2) may affect timber production by altering tree species distributions, productivity, and wildfire and insect disturbances | medium | 1 | train |
5,996 | AR6_WGII | 1,968 | 7 | Climate-driven declines in productivity are widespread (high confidence) (Figure 14.6), although a few increases are observed in northern regions | medium | 1 | train |
5,997 | AR6_WGII | 1,968 | 8 | Redistribution of species has increased travel distance to fishing grounds, shifted stocks across regulatory and international boundaries, and increased interactions with protected species | very high | 3 | train |
5,998 | AR6_WGII | 1,968 | 9 | Climate shocks have reduced yield and increased instability in fishery revenue | high | 2 | train |
5,999 | AR6_WGII | 1,968 | 10 | Declines in yield and poleward stock redistributions (an average of ~20.6 km per decade) are expected to continue under climate change and increase in magnitude with atmospheric carbon | high | 2 | train |
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