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5,700 | AR6_WGII | 1,848 | 4 | Predominantly positive CO 2 fertilisation effects at current warming will change into increasingly negative effects of warming and drought on forests at higher temperatures | medium | 1 | train |
5,701 | AR6_WGII | 1,848 | 6 | Declines in pollinator ranges in response to climate change are occurring for many groups in Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,702 | AR6_WGII | 1,848 | 9 | Projected climate impacts on pollinators show mixed responses across Europe but are greater under 3°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,703 | AR6_WGII | 1,848 | 14 | Soil erosion varies across Europe, with higher rates in parts of SEU and WCE, but lower rates in NEU | high | 2 | train |
5,704 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 4 | Projected increase in rainfall could increase soil erosion, while warming enhances vegetation cover, leading to overall mixed responses | medium | 1 | test |
5,705 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 10 | Lowering vulnerability by reducing other anthropogenic impacts (Gillingham et al., 2015), such as land-use change, habitat fragmentation (Eigenbrod et al., 2015; Oliver et al., 2017; Wessely et al., 2017), pollution and deforestation (Chapter 2), enhances adaptation capacity and biodiversity conservation | high | 2 | train |
5,706 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 11 | Protected areas, such as the EU Natura 2000 network, have contributed to biodiversity protection | medium | 1 | train |
5,707 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 12 | Most protected areas are static and thus do not take species migration into consideration | high | 2 | train |
5,708 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 15 | Their success will depend on consideration of the future climate niche when restoring peatlands (Bellis et al., 2021) or long-lived species with limited mobility | high | 2 | train |
5,709 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 19 | The capacity to implement and maintain these options remains limited, however | medium | 1 | train |
5,710 | AR6_WGII | 1,849 | 22 | Ecosystem-based adaptations (EbA) and NbS that restore or recreate ecosystems, build resilience and produce synergies with adaptation and mitigation in other sectors are increasingly used in Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,711 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 1 | Appropriately implemented ecosystem-based mitigation, such as reforestation with climate-resilient native species (Section 13.3.1.4), peatland and wetland restoration, and agroecology (Section 13.5.2), can enhance carbon sequestration or storage | medium | 1 | train |
5,712 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 3 | Trade-offs between ecosystem protection, their services and human adaptation and mitigation needs can generate challenges, such as loss of habitats, increased emissions from restored wetlands (Günther et al., 2020) and conflicts between carbon capture services, and provisioning of bioenergy, food, timber and water | medium | 1 | train |
5,713 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 4 | The solution space for responding to climate-change risks for terrestrial ecosystems has increased in parts of Europe | medium | 1 | train |
5,714 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 9 | Despite an expanding solution space, widespread implementation and monitoring of natural and planned adaptation across Europe is currently limited, due to high management costs, undervaluation of nature, and conservation laws and regulations that do not consider species shifts under future socioeconomic and climatic changes | high | 2 | train |
5,715 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 11 | Limited financial resources prevent widespread implementation of large-scale and connected conservation areas | high | 2 | train |
5,716 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 13 | Risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are rarely integrated into regional and local land-use planning, land development plans, and agro-system management (medium confidence) (Nila et al., 2019; Heikkinen et al., 2020a).13.3.3 Knowledge Gaps Despite growing evidence of climate-change impacts and risks, including attributed changes to terrestrial ecosystems (Section 13.10.1), this information is geographically not equally distributed, leaving clear gaps for some processes or regions | high | 2 | train |
5,717 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 14 | For processes such as wildfire, the Fire Weather index (Section 13.3.1.3) suggests increasing risk of fires in Europe, but robust projections on incidents and magnitudes of wildfire and their impacts on ecosystems and other sectors is currently limited, particularly for NEU, EEU and WCE | high | 2 | train |
5,718 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 16 | This creates uncertainty about the emergence of extinctions and the magnitudes of impacts for European ecosystems and the services they provide | high | 2 | train |
5,719 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 20 | Furthermore, adaptation actions will depend on local implementation and benefit from being assessed using cultural and Indigenous knowledge where applicable, but this is hardly studied | medium | 1 | train |
5,720 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 23 | Particularly habitat loss in shallow coastal waters and at the coasts themselves, and northward distribution shifts of populations and communities, are evident across all European marine sub-regions | high | 2 | train |
5,721 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 24 | Marine heatwaves have had severe ecological impacts in SEUS | high | 2 | train |
5,722 | AR6_WGII | 1,850 | 25 | Range contractions, extirpations (medium confidence) (Smale, 2020) and species redistributions have been observed | high | 2 | train |
5,723 | AR6_WGII | 1,851 | 1 | Reductions in growth and reproductive success of calcifying species are not yet unambiguously detected and attributed in European seas | medium | 1 | train |
5,724 | AR6_WGII | 1,851 | 3 | Biodiversity changes depend on region, habitat and taxon (medium confidence) (Figure 13.11) overall resulting in the redistribution of biodiversity in Europe (García Molinos et al., 2016), and biodiversity declines in some sub-regions | high | 2 | train |
5,725 | AR6_WGII | 1,851 | 4 | In TEUS, increased water-column stratification (Section 13.1) and decreasing eutrophication, result in reduced primary production (high confidence) (Figure 13.11; Capuzzo et al., 2018) and productivity at higher trophic levels (high confidence) (Free et al., 2019), while in NEUS sea ice decline has resulted in primary production increase by 40–60% | high | 2 | train |
5,726 | AR6_WGII | 1,851 | 5 | Climate-related deoxygenation impacts are small in most European waters | medium | 1 | train |
5,727 | AR6_WGII | 1,851 | 6 | Here warming and eutrophication have altered ecosystem functioning | high | 2 | train |
5,728 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 3 | Since the capacity of natural systems for autonomous adaptation is limited | medium | 1 | train |
5,729 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 4 | At 1.5°C GWL, particularly in winter, Mediterranean coastal fish communities are projected to lose ~10% of species, increasing to ~60% at 4°C GWL (Dahlke et al., 2020), exacerbating regime shifts linked to overexploitation | medium | 1 | train |
5,730 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 7 | Marine primary production is projected to further decrease by 2100 in most European seas between 0.3% at 1.5°C GWL to 2.7% at 4°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
5,731 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 12 | Ocean acidification and its biological and ecological risks are projected to rise in European waters by impeding growth and reproductive success of vulnerable calcifying organisms | medium | 1 | train |
5,732 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 13 | Coralline algae are projected to reduce skeletal performance at 3°C GWL, with negative consequences for habitat formation | medium | 1 | train |
5,733 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 14 | Regionally (Brodie et al., 2014), differences in species-specific vulnerability will result in community shifts from calcifying macroalgae (medium confidence) (Ragazzola et al., 2013) to non-calcifying macroalgae | high | 2 | train |
5,734 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 16 | However, if not supported by sufficient food availability (Thomsen et al., 2013; Clements and Darrow, 2018), such energy reallocation will negatively impact growth or reproduction | medium | 1 | train |
5,735 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 17 | This suggests that acidification risks will be amplified by increased stratification and reduced primary production | medium | 1 | train |
5,736 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 18 | The emergence of harmful algal blooms and pathogens at higher GWLs is unclear across all European seas | low | 0 | train |
5,737 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 20 | Elevated CO2 levels predicted at 4°C GWL will affect the C/N ratio of organic-matter export and, hence, the efficiency of the biological pump | low | 0 | test |
5,738 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 21 | Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) will benefit with enhanced larval growth and survival from indirect food- web effects (Sswat et al., 2018a), whereas Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) will face overall negative impacts | medium | 1 | train |
5,739 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 24 | Losses are projected for Posidonia oceanica seagrass habitats in the Mediterranean by up to 75% at 2.5°C GWL | low | 0 | train |
5,740 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 26 | For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the critical rate of 6–10 mm yr–1, at which intertidal flats will start to ‘drown’, will be reached by 2030 at 1.5°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,741 | AR6_WGII | 1,852 | 27 | European coastal zones provided a total of 494 billion EUR of ecosystem services in 2018, and 4.2–5.1% of this value will be lost due to coastal erosion by 2100 at 2.5°C and 4.6°C GWL, respectively | medium | 1 | train |
5,742 | AR6_WGII | 1,853 | 6 | These MPAs provide protection from local stressors, such as commercial exploitation, and enhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems, thus lessening the impacts of climate change | medium | 1 | train |
5,743 | AR6_WGII | 1,853 | 11 | In some partially protected MPAs, local stressors, such as fishing, are higher than adjacent unprotected areas | medium | 1 | train |
5,744 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 4 | Conservation approaches (e.g., MPAs, climate refugia), habitat restoration efforts (Bekkby et al., 2020) and further ecosystem-based management policies do support alleviation of, or adaptation to, climate-change impacts | medium | 1 | train |
5,745 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 8 | While rising sea levels will also directly threaten intertidal and beach ecosystems, coastal wetlands will benefit | medium | 1 | train |
5,746 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 10 | The ‘Blue Growth’ strategy of the European Commission with the aim to increase offshore activities (European Comission, 2012) will increase the pressures on the marine environments | medium | 1 | train |
5,747 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 12 | The introduction of novel hard-substrate intertidal habitats has, and will continue to have, profound ecological ramifications for marine systems, including hydrodynamic changes, stepping stones for non-native species, noise and vibration, and changes in the food web | high | 2 | train |
5,748 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 22 | Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro- climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season | high | 2 | train |
5,749 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 23 | Warming and precipitation changes since 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and barley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet | high | 2 | train |
5,750 | AR6_WGII | 1,854 | 25 | Drought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and heat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause economic losses in forest productivity (Schuldt et al., 2020), annual and permanent crops, and livestock farming (Stahl et al., 2016), including losses in wheat production in the EU (van der Velde et al., 2018) and EEU | high | 2 | train |
5,751 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 1 | Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of field-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes and cucumbers (Potopová et al., 2017) and earlier flowering of olive trees | high | 2 | train |
5,752 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 3 | Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is increasing since AR5 | high | 2 | train |
5,753 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 4 | While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented | high | 2 | train |
5,754 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 6 | Growing regions will shift northward or expand for melons (Bisbis et al., 2019), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 under 1.5°C GWL (high confidence) (Hannah et al., 2013; Litskas et al., 2019), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese cabbage and French beans (Bisbis et al., 2019) | medium | 1 | train |
5,755 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 9 | Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4°C GWL, with lower losses or gains in the north | high | 2 | train |
5,756 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 10 | The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU | high | 2 | train |
5,757 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 11 | Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,758 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 14 | Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association of pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops | high | 2 | train |
5,759 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 21 | Climate change also impacts grassland production, fodder composition and quality, particularly in SEU (Dumont et al., 2015) and EEU (Bezuglova et al., 2020), as well as alters the prevalence, distribution and load of pathogens and their vectors | high | 2 | train |
5,760 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 23 | Warming increases the pasture growing season and farming period in NEU and at higher altitudes (Fuhrer et al., 2014), while longer drought periods and thunderstorms can influence abandonment of remote Alpine pastures, reducing cultural and landscape ecosystem services and losing traditional farming practices | high | 2 | train |
5,761 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 24 | At 2–4°C GWL grassland biomass production for forage-fed animals will increase in NEU and the northern Alps, while forage production will decrease in SEU and the southern Alps due to heat and water scarcity (Gauly et al., 2013; Jäger et al., 2020), causing regional reductions of cow milk production in WCE and SEU | high | 2 | train |
5,762 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 28 | Climate change has impacted European marine food production | high | 2 | train |
5,763 | AR6_WGII | 1,855 | 31 | In the North Sea, cuttlefish (van der Kooij et al., 2016; Oesterwind et al., 2020) and tuna (Bennema, 2018; Faillettaz et al., 2019) have become new target species | medium | 1 | train |
5,764 | AR6_WGII | 1,856 | 1 | European countries are assessed to be globally among the least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries-related food security risks | high | 2 | train |
5,765 | AR6_WGII | 1,857 | 2 | Assuming MSY management, projections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks in European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between 1.5°C and 4.0°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,766 | AR6_WGII | 1,857 | 4 | Ocean acidification (Section 13.4; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk for marine food production in Europe under 4°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
5,767 | AR6_WGII | 1,857 | 5 | Acidification is also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and aquaculture in Europe with 4°C GWL (medium confidence) (Fernandes et al., 2017; Narita and Rehdanz, 2017; Mangi et al., 2018).13.5.1.4 Forestry and Forest Products Climate change is altering the structure and function of European forests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2, as well as through interaction with pests and fire | high | 2 | train |
5,768 | AR6_WGII | 1,857 | 7 | While warming and extended growing seasons have positive impacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU (Pretzsch et al., 2014; Matskovsky et al., 2020), EEU (Tei et al., 2017) and higher altitude (Sedmáková et al., 2019), drought stress across Europe has been increasing | high | 2 | train |
5,769 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 2 | Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of fire and other natural disturbances (Section 13.3.1), resulting in forest productivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO 2 | high | 2 | train |
5,770 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 10 | Extensive droughts during the past two decades have caused many irrigated systems in SEU to cease production (Stahl et al., 2016) indicating limited adaptive capacity to heat and drought | medium | 1 | train |
5,771 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 14 | Changes to cultivars and sowing dates can reduce yield losses (Figure 13.15) but are insufficient to fully ameliorate losses projected >3°C GWL, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops growing later in the season such as maize and wheat | high | 2 | train |
5,772 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 15 | Adaptations for early maturing reduce yield loss by moving the cycle towards a cooler part of year, and also constrains the increases in irrigation water demands, but reduce the period for photosynthesis and grain filling | high | 2 | train |
5,773 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 19 | These options are used in indoors- reared species (Gauly et al., 2013) but are limited in mountain pastures | high | 2 | train |
5,774 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 21 | Dairy systems that maximise the use of grazed pasture are considered more environmentally sustainable but are not fully supported by policy and markets | medium | 1 | train |
5,775 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 26 | Agroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock (silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience to climate change (Chapter 5), but implementation in Europe needs improved training programmes and policy support | high | 2 | train |
5,776 | AR6_WGII | 1,858 | 28 | Agricultural policy, market prices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more impor - tant role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate- change impacts | high | 2 | train |
5,777 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 7 | Inflexible and non-adaptive allocation schemes can result in conflicts among European countries | medium | 1 | train |
5,778 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 8 | The development of adaptation strategies for seafood production since the Paris Agreement is insufficient in Europe | high | 2 | train |
5,779 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 13 | Successful adaptation strategies include altering the tree species composition to enhance the resilience of European forests | high | 2 | train |
5,780 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 14 | Greater diversity of tree species reduces vulnerability to pests and pathogens (Felton et al., 2016), and increases resistance to natural disturbances | high | 2 | train |
5,781 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 15 | Depending on forest successional history (Sheil and Bongers, 2020), tree composition change can increase carbon sequestration | high | 2 | train |
5,782 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 16 | Conservation areas can also help climate-change adaptation by keeping the forest cover intact, creating favourable microclimates and protecting biodiversity | low | 0 | train |
5,783 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 17 | Reforestation reduces warming rates (Zellweger et al., 2020) and extremely warm days (Sonntag et al., 2016) inside forests, reducing natural disturbances and fires | high | 2 | train |
5,784 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 20 | Consumer demand for food and timber products can adapt to productivity changes and be mediated by price (e.g., in response to production changes or policies on food-related taxation), reflect changes in preferences (e.g., towards plant-based foods motivated by environmental, ethical or health concerns) or reductions in food waste | high | 2 | train |
5,785 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 21 | Although mitigation potentials of dietary changes have received increasing attention, evidence is lacking on potential for adaptation through changes in European food consumption and trade, despite these socioeconomic factors being a strong driver for change | medium | 1 | train |
5,786 | AR6_WGII | 1,860 | 25 | Effectiveness of adaptation options is predominantly qualitatively mentioned but not assessed, and the effectiveness of combinations of measures is rarely assessed | high | 2 | train |
5,787 | AR6_WGII | 1,861 | 2 | The assessment of irrigation needs and the impact of CO 2 and O 3 tend to focus on individual species and processes hindering upscaling to multiple stressors and mixed production | high | 2 | train |
5,788 | AR6_WGII | 1,862 | 1 | Risks of rutting and blow-ups of roads (particularly in low altitudes) due to high summer temperatures are expected to increase in WCE and EEU at 3°C GWL | medium | 1 | train |
5,789 | AR6_WGII | 1,863 | 3 | Current damages are mainly related to river floods and storms, but heat and drought will become major drivers in the future | medium | 1 | train |
5,790 | AR6_WGII | 1,863 | 6 | Indirect effects via supply chains, transport and electricity networks can be as high as, or substantially higher than, direct effects | medium | 1 | train |
5,791 | AR6_WGII | 1,863 | 9 | Due to reduced snow availability and hotter summers, damages are projected for the European tourism industry, with larger losses in SEU (high confidence) and some smaller gains in the rest of Europe | medium | 1 | train |
5,792 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 3 | A GWL of 1.5°C could result in 30,000 annual deaths due to extreme heat, with up to threefold the number under 3°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
5,793 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 5 | Heat stress risks will be lower under SSP1 than the SSP3 or SSP4 scenarios | high | 2 | train |
5,794 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 11 | In large European cities, stabilising climate warming at 1.5°C GWL would decrease premature deaths by 15–22% in summer compared with stabilisation at 2°C GWL | high | 2 | train |
5,795 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 20 | Climate change could increase air pollution health effects, with the size of the effect differing across European regions and pollutants | medium | 1 | train |
5,796 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 23 | At 2.5°C GWL, mortalities due to exposure to PM2.5 are projected to increase by up to 73% in Europe | medium | 1 | train |
5,797 | AR6_WGII | 1,871 | 24 | At 2°C GWL, annual premature mortalities due to exposure to near-surface ozone are projected to increase up to 11% in WCE and SEU and to decrease up to 9% in NEU (under RCP4.5) | medium | 1 | train |
5,798 | AR6_WGII | 1,873 | 15 | There has been a temperature-dependent range expansion of ticks that is projected to expand further north in Sweden, Norway and the Russian Arctic (Jaenson et al., 2012; Jore et al., 2014; Tokarevich et al., 2017; Waits et al., 2018), and to higher elevations in Austria and the Czech Republic | medium | 1 | test |
5,799 | AR6_WGII | 1,873 | 20 | Projections for Europe show the West Nile virus risk to expand: by 2025, the risk is projected to increase in SEU and southern and eastern parts of WCE | medium | 1 | train |
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