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4,500
AR6_WGII
816
10
Increases in demands for animal protein and shifts to pescatarian diets will increase the existing competition for land resources, particularly in low- and medium-income countries, with negative impacts on food security (Makkar, 2018), but may be mitigated by dietary changes, novel feeds and food waste usage for aquatic systems (Berners-Lee et al., 2018; Hua et al., 2019; Cottrell et al., 2020).Competition over use of major aquaculture feed crops (Fry et al., 2016) with terrestrial livestock (Troell et al., 2014), and fish use by terrestrial livestock, will also place pressure on fish and crop resources
medium
1
train
4,501
AR6_WGII
816
13
Waste fish products can supplement fish meal and oil to reduce competition for feed, as well as reducing use of fish that could go to human consumption
medium
1
train
4,502
AR6_WGII
817
2
Shallow and microtidal estuaries will be more vulnerable to changing river runoffs and saltwater intrusions, eutrophication and hypoxia
high
2
train
4,503
AR6_WGII
817
16
Adaptation options that consider adverse effects for different groups reduce the risk increasing vulnerability, negatively affecting socioeconomic factors to deal with climate impacts, or impeding efforts to implement SDGs
high
2
train
4,504
AR6_WGII
817
17
Adaptation methods considering historical roots of current vulnerabilities can identify viable solutions, which are difficult to undertake because of path dependencies
high
2
train
4,505
AR6_WGII
817
19
Inclusive planning initiatives such as community-based anticipatory adaptation combined with ‘two-way learning’ that considers future scenarios and different adaptation pathways can prevent maladaptation
high
2
train
4,506
AR6_WGII
820
4
A/R programmes can negatively affect a range of substantial and procedural Indigenous Peoples’ rights entrenched in international human rights law (Table 5.22) and their potential for climate change adaptation
high
2
train
4,507
AR6_WGII
820
14
Policies and safeguards attached to specific A/R initiatives determine their impact
high
2
train
4,508
AR6_WGII
821
2
These trends are connected to climate change as financial investments are influenced by the likelihood that climate change will increase commodity and farmland price variability
medium
1
train
4,509
AR6_WGII
822
5
Climate change will affect the food–energy–water (FEW) nexus, commonly in the form of risk multiplier
high
2
train
4,510
AR6_WGII
822
10
Increasing demands for food, energy and water can lead to domestic and international conflict, including political instability and migration, often in the context of drought
high
2
train
4,511
AR6_WGII
822
32
Several adaptation options have high to medium feasibility, with robust evidence, high agreement about the adaptive capacity resilience building potential of options in relation to climate change impact drivers
high
2
train
4,512
AR6_WGII
823
1
Most adaptation options have medium to high microeconomic feasibility
high
2
train
4,513
AR6_WGII
823
3
Higher-scored options to reduce risk included increasing biodiversity (at landscape and field level), community seed banks, conventional breeding (plant and animals), mixed systems and agroecological approaches
medium
1
train
4,514
AR6_WGII
823
4
Most options have high scores for enhancing social well-being and economic and environmental benefits
medium
1
train
4,515
AR6_WGII
823
5
There were low scores for potential maladaptation
medium
1
train
4,516
AR6_WGII
824
8
Improved design and delivery of climate services can enhance effectiveness
medium
1
train
4,517
AR6_WGII
825
2
Bundling additional services such as market information with climate information may be effective at plugging information gaps (low confidence) (Chatuphale and Armstrong, 2018; Tsan et al., 2019; Tesfaye et al., 2019) There may be inequality in access to climate services; their use may tend to benefit large-scale operations and disadvantage small- and medium- scale farmers and others who face issues of access due to social and economic inequity; also some groups such as pastoralists have not yet benefitted from climate services
high
2
train
4,518
AR6_WGII
826
3
To address smallholder vulnerability to climate change impacts, however, additional policy support beyond agroecology will be needed that is context specific; for example, addressing farmer capacity, limited political power to access land, water, seeds and other key natural resources, structural gender inequities, policy and market disincentives that support large-scale monocultures
high
2
train
4,519
AR6_WGII
827
10
Food security and nutrition: Agroecological practices can increase household food security and nutrition for producer households, with more evidence in low- and medium-income countries
high
2
train
4,520
AR6_WGII
828
12
Community-based participatory scenario planning can help identify multiple climate stressors and vulnerabilities to develop effective adaptation plans (Fernández- Giménez et al., 2015; Bennett et al., 2016; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter).Different dimensions of agroecological transitions as a transformative climate change adaptation strategyLinks to climate change impacts, benefits, trade-offs and constraints to imple- mentation with examples Policy tools: Investment in agroecological approaches that are designed for socio-ecological context, farmer-led schools, co-learning platforms, and networks of farmers, scientists, private sector and civil society can support agroecological transitions at a regional scale
high
2
train
4,521
AR6_WGII
828
15
Small to mid-sized farms can more effectively integrate agroecological methods such as increasing landscape diversity, on-farm diversity and intercrops
medium
1
train
4,522
AR6_WGII
828
19
Other drivers of agroecological transitions can include crises (environmental, economic or social), social movements, changing socio-cultural values, addressing social inequities, and discourse (Pérez-Marin et al., 2017; Mier y Terán Giménez Cacho et al., 2018; Anderson et al., 2019a).Further research could provide context-specific information about economic and ecological benefits of some practices and combinations, with effective policies to support their implementation
high
2
train
4,523
AR6_WGII
829
6
Evidence on strengthening local and regional food systems with a food sovereignty approach, in terms of access to resources (land, seeds, water), shortened food chains and CbA strategies suggest that these strategies can positively contribute to climate change adaptation in many contexts
medium
1
train
4,524
AR6_WGII
829
21
Adaptation strategies can have negative impacts on marginalised social groups and worsen socioeconomic inequities unless explicit efforts are made to address unequal power dynamics and differences in access to resources in agricultural, fisheries, aquaculture, livestock and forestry systems
high
2
train
4,525
AR6_WGII
830
1
Where Indigenous Peoples have access to and control over their lands and natural resources, food systems can potentially be more sustainably managed and more resilient
high
2
train
4,526
AR6_WGII
830
5
Effective adaptation requires a more holistic approach that includes the recognition of Indigenous rights, governance systems and laws
high
2
train
4,527
AR6_WGII
830
9
Education utilising IK and LK can help prevent maladaptation options
high
2
train
4,528
AR6_WGII
830
26
In general CSA programmes have tended to overlook questions of inequity
medium
1
train
4,529
AR6_WGII
831
14
Policies around property and grazing rights are directly linked to small-scale food producer vulnerability, and land ownership changes will pose a key challenge as climate change Box 5.13: Supporting Youth Adaptation in Food Systems Young people are key agents in agrifood systems: both a vulnerable group, and one that can foster systemic change
high
2
train
4,530
AR6_WGII
831
17
Rural youth in these sectors are particularly vulnerable, often with less access to land, water, capital and other resources, shaped by family and social relations, and fewer opportunities
high
2
train
4,531
AR6_WGII
831
18
In these vulnerable regions, climate change compounds other drivers such as poverty to increase youth out-migration to urban areas or other regions
medium
1
train
4,532
AR6_WGII
831
19
Young low-income rural women may be particularly marginalised and vulnerable due to systemic gender inequities in access to land, credit, employment, institutions and other resources
medium
1
train
4,533
AR6_WGII
831
20
Youth play a critical role in all sectors of the food system (HLPE, 2021; Figure Box 5.13.1), and some are actively pursuing work and innovation in agrifood systems
medium
1
train
4,534
AR6_WGII
831
22
At the same time, due to heightened awareness about climate change, youth may be more willing to apply climate adaptation strategies
medium
1
train
4,535
AR6_WGII
831
27
Harnessing youth innovation and vision to address climate change alongside other SDGs such as gender inequity and rural poverty will be a crucial strategy to ensure resilient economies in food systems
high
2
train
4,536
AR6_WGII
835
9
Financial barriers limit implementation of adaptation options in agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry
high
2
train
4,537
AR6_WGII
835
14
Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks can enable and incentivise climate change adaptation
medium
1
train
4,538
AR6_WGII
836
11
Government agencies and multilateral institutions –Strengthen enabling environments for sustainable production and ecosystem protection (e.g., price transparency; information exchange; international coordination) –Support demonstration projects for sustainable land and resource management (e.g., grants) –Disaster risk reduction (e.g., national disaster funds; social protection programmes; contingent credit lines; sovereign/sub-sovereign insurance (Global Commission on Adaptation, 2019) –Increase resilience through early-warning systems, infrastructure, and capacity building (e.g., climate change adaptation funds) –Increase revenues for adaptation activities (e.g., income/luxury taxes) –Reduce production risks (e.g., agricultural subsidies) –Promote advanced technology implementation (e.g., tax incentives) –Coordinate and align donor funding with national priorities (e.g., multi-donor national climate change funds) –Incentivise and de-risk commercial investments (e.g., interest rate reduction programmes, structured financing, guarantee funds) (Woodard et al., 2019) Methods to strengthen adaptation finance include updating regulations and policies to support adaptation finance instruments (e.g., climate accounting standards), requiring climate-risk disclosure, improved information-sharing among public and private sector actors and devolving funding to local actors
medium
1
train
4,539
AR6_WGII
837
2
Production insuranceCompensation for specified losses related to production (e.g., insurance indexed to specific weather events) or supply chains (e.g., shipping insurance) Market and price insurance Compensation for specified market-related losses (e.g., price or currency fluctuation) Grants: Concessionary funding provided by public or philanthropic entities to support climate adaptation costs or outcomes (no expectation of repayment) Direct supportFunding for provision of goods (e.g., fertilizer, seeds, nursery stock) or services (e.g., technical assistance, product storage) to producers, local companies or intermediaries (e.g., for agronomic or business management expertise); can reduce credit risk when part of blended finance arrangements Performance-based grantsGrants or other concessionary funding contingent on achievement of defined adaptation outcomes (with possible third-party verification requirement); may support development and testing of new approaches (i.e., design funding; challenges/prizes) Governmental instruments Policy incentivesPublic policies designed to stimulate adaptation action among targeted groups (e.g., producers, consumers, agri-businesses, financiers) including direct or indirect subsidies (e.g., producer payments, tax breaks, health insurance), procurement policies (e.g., low carbon and sustainability criteria; nutrition-sensitive school feeding programmes) and other fiscal measures (e.g., infrastructure development; funding R&D in climate-resilient practices or technologies) (Shukla et al., 2019) Development aidInternational or domestic programmes that directly or indirectly fund adaptation actions including financial transfers (e.g., producer support or anti-poverty programmes) and subsidised credit
medium
1
train
4,540
AR6_WGII
839
1
Increased technology innovation, stakeholder integration and transparent governance structures and procedures at local to global scales are key to successful bioeconomy deployment maximising benefits and managing trade-offs
high
2
train
4,541
AR6_WGII
839
2
Limited global land and biomass resources accompanied by growing demands for food, feed, fibre and fuels, together with prospects for a paradigm shift towards phasing out fossil fuels, set the frame for potentially fierce competition for land and biomass to meet burgeoning demands even as climate change increasingly limits natural resource potentials
high
2
test
4,542
AR6_WGII
839
3
Sustainable agriculture and forestry, technology innovation in bio-based production within a circular economy and international cooperation and governance of global trade in products to reflect and disincentivise their environmental and social externalities can provide mitigation and adaptation via bioeconomy development that responds to the needs and perspectives of multiple stakeholders to achieve outcomes that maximise synergies while limiting trade-offs
high
2
train
4,543
AR6_WGII
842
18
In summary, there is significant scope for optimising use of land resources to produce more biomass while reducing adverse effects
high
2
train
4,544
AR6_WGII
842
19
Context-specific prioritisation, technology innovation in bio-based production, integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms to enhance synergies and minimise trade-offs can mitigate the pressure on managed as well as natural and semi-natural ecosystems
medium
1
train
4,545
AR6_WGII
842
20
Yet, energy conservation and efficiency measures, and deployment of technologies and systems that do not rely on carbon-based energy and materials, are essential for mitigating biomass demand growth as countries pursue ambitious climate goals
high
2
train
4,546
AR6_WGII
920
2
Urbanisation processes generate vulnerability and exposure which combine with climate change hazards to drive urban risk and impacts
high
2
train
4,547
AR6_WGII
920
3
Globally, the most rapid growth in urban vulnerability and exposure has been in cities and settlements where adaptive capacity is limited, especially in unplanned and informal settlements in low- and middle-income nations and in smaller and medium-sized urban centres
high
2
train
4,548
AR6_WGII
920
10
Losses become systemic when affecting entire systems and can even jump from one system to another (e.g., drought impacting on rural food production contributing to urban food insecurity)
medium
1
train
4,549
AR6_WGII
920
13
Vulnerabilities are shaped by drivers of inequality, including gender, class, race, ethnic origin, age, level of ability, sexuality and non-conforming gender orientation, framed by cultural norms, diverse values and practices
high
2
train
4,550
AR6_WGII
920
22
The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have pushed an additional 119 to 124 million people into poverty in 2020, with South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa each contributing roughly two-fifths of this total
medium
1
train
4,551
AR6_WGII
920
29
Sea level increase and increases in tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding, with more than a billion people located in low-lying cities and settlements expected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate hazards by 2050
high
2
train
4,552
AR6_WGII
920
30
Sea level rise, increases in tropical cyclone storm surges and more frequent and intense extreme precipitation will increase the number of people, area of urban land, and damages from flood hazard
high
2
train
4,553
AR6_WGII
920
34
Many of these plans focus narrowly on climate risk reduction, missing opportunities to advance co-benefits of climate mitigation and sustainable development, compounding inequality and reducing well-being
medium
1
train
4,554
AR6_WGII
921
2
The greatest gaps between policy and action are in failures to manage adaptation of social infrastructure (community facilities, services and networks) and failure to address complex interconnected risks for example in the food–energy–water– health nexus or the inter-relationships of air quality and climate risk
medium
1
train
4,555
AR6_WGII
921
9
Governance capacity, financial support and the legacy of past urban infrastructure investment constrain how all cities and settlements are able to adapt
high
2
train
4,556
AR6_WGII
921
11
These include the limited ability to identify social vulnerability and community strengths; the absence of integrated planning to protect communities; and the lack of access to innovative funding arrangements and limited capability to manage finance and commercial insurance
medium
1
train
4,557
AR6_WGII
921
20
Private and business investment in key infrastructure, housing construction and through insurance requirements can also drive widespread adaptive action, though at times excluding the priorities of the poor
medium
1
train
4,558
AR6_WGII
921
23
Transnational networks of local government can also enhance city level capacity, share lessons and advocacy
medium
1
train
4,559
AR6_WGII
921
34
Finance de- ployed at the interface of multiple, integrated adaptation measures can support climate resilient development
high
2
train
4,560
AR6_WGII
922
9
Multi-level leadership and institutional capacity, together with financial resources (including climate finance) to support inclusive and sustainable adaptation in the context of multiple pressures and interconnected risks, can help to ensure that global urbanisation of an additional 2.5 billion people by 2050 reduces rather than generates climate risk
medium
1
train
4,561
AR6_WGII
922
11
The great- est gains in well-being in urban areas can be achieved by prioritising investment to reduce climate risk for low-income and marginalised residents and targeting informal settlements
high
2
train
4,562
AR6_WGII
922
14
Providing opportunities for marginalised people, including women, to take on leadership and par - ticipation in local projects can enhance climate governance and its outcomes
high
2
train
4,563
AR6_WGII
922
21
More comprehensive and clearly articulated global ambitions for city and community adaptation will contribute to inclusive urbanisation, by addressing the root causes of social and economic inequalities that drive social exclusion and marginalisation, so that adaptation can directly support the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda
high
2
train
4,564
AR6_WGII
923
2
By 2050, over two thirds of the world’s population is expected to be urban, many living in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller urban centres in Africa and Asia
high
2
train
4,565
AR6_WGII
926
12
The IPCC 1.5°C Special Report commented that ‘The extent of risk depends on human vulnerability and the effectiveness of adaptation for regions (coastal and non-coastal), informal settlements, and infrastructure sectors (energy, water, and transport)
high
2
train
4,566
AR6_WGII
928
15
Evidence since AR5 confirms that occupants of informal settlements are particularly exposed to climate events given low-quality housing, limited capacity to adapt, and limited or no risk-reducing infrastructure
high
2
train
4,567
AR6_WGII
928
19
Box 6.1 | Planetary Urbanisation and Climate Risk The scale, reach and complexity of contemporary urbanisation compounds climate risks and conditions adaptation
high
2
train
4,568
AR6_WGII
929
32
The fragmentation of the hinterland for extractivist purposes depletes ecosystem services and further exacerbates cascading risks
high
2
train
4,569
AR6_WGII
930
5
Cities can be effective change agents when supported by networked local and national institutions, including professional bodies
high
2
train
4,570
AR6_WGII
932
11
The conclusions of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C noted that ‘Global warming of 2°C is expected to pose greater risks to urban areas than global warming of 1.5°C
medium
1
train
4,571
AR6_WGII
933
4
Additionally, carbon-intensive economic growth, increasing inequalities, global pandemics, and uncontrolled or unmanaged urbanisation will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of urban systems modelled in existing climate scenarios and pathways
high
2
train
4,572
AR6_WGII
933
10
Climate change can have direct impacts on the functioning of urban systems, while the nature of those systems plays a substantial role in modifying the effects of climate change
high
2
train
4,573
AR6_WGII
933
28
Future urbanisation will amplify projected local air temperature increase, particularly by strong influence on minimum temperatures, which is approximately comparable in magnitude to global warming
high
2
train
4,574
AR6_WGII
933
31
The risks to cities, settlements and infrastructure from heatwaves will worsen
high
2
train
4,575
AR6_WGII
935
3
Heat risk is associated with a range of health issues for urban residents, with the consequences of higher urban temperatures being unevenly distributed across urban populations
high
2
train
4,576
AR6_WGII
935
11
There is an emerging risk of diminished indoor thermal comfort due to climate change, evidenced by research into negatively affected thermal comfort indices and/or increased number of overheating hours under future emissions scenarios
medium
1
train
4,577
AR6_WGII
935
18
Higher urban temperatures result in lower labour productivity levels and economic outputs
medium
1
train
4,578
AR6_WGII
935
24
Higher urban temperatures place unequal economic stresses on residents and households through higher utilities demand during warm periods, for example, electricity in regions where air conditioning is predicted to become more prevalent, and due to medical costs associated with care for heat illnesses and related health effects, missed work and other related impacts
medium
1
train
4,579
AR6_WGII
936
5
Social surveys from temperate and tropical cities highlight the risk of reduced quality of life during heat events, including increased incidence of personal discomfort in indoor and outdoor settings, elevated anxiety, depression and other indicators of adverse psychological health, and reductions in physical activity, social interactions, work attendance, tourism and recreation
high
2
train
4,580
AR6_WGII
936
8
Sea level increase and increases in tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding
high
2
test
4,581
AR6_WGII
936
9
Globally, the increase in frequencies and intensities of extreme precipitation from global warming will likely4 expand the global land area affected by flood hazards
medium
1
train
4,582
AR6_WGII
936
20
Urban flooding risks are also increased by urban expansion and land use and land cover change which enlarges impermeable surface areas through soil sealing, impacting drainage of floodwaters with consequent sewer overflows
high
2
train
4,583
AR6_WGII
936
25
Future risks of urban flooding is increasing in conjunction with continued increases in global surface temperature
high
2
train
4,584
AR6_WGII
937
7
Risks arising from urban water scarcity worldwide are very likely increasing due to climate drivers (e.g., warmer temperatures and droughts) and urbanisation processes (e.g., land use changes, migration to cities and changing patterns of water use including over extraction of surface and groundwater resources) affecting supply and demand
high
2
train
4,585
AR6_WGII
937
11
Decreased regional precipitation and associated changes in runoff and storage from droughts is exacerbating urban scarcity by impairing the quality of water available for its resource management in cities
high
2
train
4,586
AR6_WGII
937
15
Risks of urban water scarcity and security are compounded by vulnerabilities such as service availability and quality of infrastructure to supply water for increased urban demand from in-migration to cities
medium
1
train
4,587
AR6_WGII
937
16
Risks to local water security in cities are also exacerbated by drivers such as dependence on imported water resources from distant locales that may be exposed to additional drought risks
high
2
train
4,588
AR6_WGII
938
40
In particular, there is evidence from North American cities that tornado damage are likely fundamentally driven by growing built-environment exposure
medium
1
train
4,589
AR6_WGII
939
5
Future climate risk of fires at the WUI are likely
medium
1
train
4,590
AR6_WGII
939
9
The mortality risk for several pollutants, for example PM 2.5, is considerable
high
2
train
4,591
AR6_WGII
939
20
The impacts of future climate change on air quality and consequent risks on human health have been studied at urban (Knowlton et al., 2004; Physick, Cope and Lee, 2014) and national scales (Fann et al., 2015; Orru et al., 2013; Doherty, Heal and O’Connor, 2017); globally, these studies have found a likely net increased risk of climate change on air pollution-related health
low
0
train
4,592
AR6_WGII
940
7
While some individuals, including children, may be able to exercise agency to reduce their risk (Treichel, 2020), and some indicators are culturally specific, overall, poor, marginalised, socially isolated and informal urban households are particularly at risk
high
2
train
4,593
AR6_WGII
941
2
Climate-induced migration is not necessarily higher among poorer households whose mobility is more likely to be limited due to the poverty trap (i.e., lack of financial resources)
high
2
train
4,594
AR6_WGII
941
13
Migration can also be maladaptive for the receiving contexts, whether due to the pressure on and/or conflict over land and/or the urban resources
high
2
train
4,595
AR6_WGII
941
16
Regardless of the reasons and the initiators for migration, community control over resettlement both at the origin and destination leads to more positive outcomes for both the communities being resettled and the receiving communities
high
2
train
4,596
AR6_WGII
941
17
The protection of livelihoods contributes to ensuring the well-being (physical and mental) and the protection of the rights of communities
high
2
train
4,597
AR6_WGII
942
3
Current climate variability is already causing impacts on infrastructure systems around the world
high
2
train
4,598
AR6_WGII
947
19
Projected global compound risks will increase in the future, with significant risks across energy, food and water sectors that likely overlap spatially and temporally while affecting increasing numbers of people and regions particularly in Africa and Asia
high
2
train
4,599
AR6_WGII
948
23
Extending into urban areas within stable states, alienation and loss of trust between local populations and the state can be exacerbated by top-down adaptation planning and delivery; socially and spatially uneven adaptation investment; and in the economic and administrative limits of government that can lead to some places being excluded from formal planned investment
high
2
train