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4,300 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 19 | Higher temperatures and humidity will favour toxigenic fungi, plant and animal-based pathogens, and harmful algal blooms (HABs) | high | 2 | train |
4,301 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 20 | More frequent and intense flood events and in- creased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination | high | 2 | train |
4,302 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 21 | Incidence and severity of HABs and water-borne diseases will increase, as will indirect effects from infrastructure damage during extreme events | high | 2 | train |
4,303 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 23 | Autonomous responses include livestock and farm management, switching varieties/species and altered timing of key farm activities such as planting or stocking | high | 2 | train |
4,304 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 24 | However, because of limited adaptive capacities and non-climatic compounding drivers of food insecurity, SDG2 will not be met | high | 2 | train |
4,305 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 29 | Ecosystem-based approaches support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support | medium | 1 | train |
4,306 | AR6_WGII | 729 | 31 | A sustainable bioeconomy relying on bioresources will need to be supported by technology innovation and international cooperation and governance of global trade to disincentivise environmental and social externalities | medium | 1 | train |
4,307 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 1 | Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues | medium | 1 | train |
4,308 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 2 | Other options include shared quotas and access rights considering trade-offs, shifting livelihoods to follow target species, new markets for emerging species, and technology {Cross Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, 5.8.4, 5.14.3.4} Implemented adaptation in crop production will be insufficient to offset the negative effects of climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,309 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 3 | Currently available management options have the potential to compensate global crop production losses due to climate change up to ~2°C warming, but the negative impacts even with adaptation will grow substantially from the mid-century under high temperature change scenarios | high | 2 | train |
4,310 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 4 | Regionally, the negative effects will prevail sooner where current temperatures are already higher as in lower latitudes | high | 2 | train |
4,311 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 6 | Policies that support system transitions include shifting subsidies, removing perverse incentives, regulation and certification, green public procurement, investment in sustainable value chains, support for capacity-building, access to insurance premiums, payments for ecosystem services, and social protection, among others | medium | 1 | train |
4,312 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 8 | Adaptation strategies that address power inequities lead to co-benefits in equity outcomes and resilience for vulnerable groups | medium | 1 | train |
4,313 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 9 | Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge facilitate adaptation strategies for ecosystem provisioning, especially when combined with scientific knowledge using participatory and community-based approaches | high | 2 | train |
4,314 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 11 | Lacking sufficient stakeholder participation, large-scale land acquisitions have had mostly negative implications for vulnerable groups and climate change adaptation | high | 2 | train |
4,315 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 12 | Policy and programme appraisal of adaptation options that consider the risks of adverse effects across different groups at different scales and use inclusive rights-based approaches help avoid maladaptation | medium | 1 | train |
4,316 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 13 | Successful forest adaptation involves recognition of land rights and cooperation with Indigenous Peoples and other local communities who depend on forest resources | high | 2 | train |
4,317 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 15 | Public-sector investment in adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries has grown four-fold since 2010, but adaptation costs will be much higher to meet future adaptation needs | medium | 1 | train |
4,318 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 16 | Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks will enable and incentivise climate change adaptation | medium | 1 | train |
4,319 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 18 | Robust analyses are needed that detail plausible path- ways to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food systems in ways that are socially, economically and environmentally acceptable through time | high | 2 | train |
4,320 | AR6_WGII | 730 | 19 | Appropriate monitoring and rapid feedback to food system actors will be critical to the success of many current and future adaptation actions | high | 2 | train |
4,321 | AR6_WGII | 731 | 21 | Climate change impacts on fisheries will be particularly high in tropical regions, where reductions in catch are expected to be among the largest globally, leading to negative economic and social effects for fishing communities and with implications for the supply of fish and shellfish | high | 2 | train |
4,322 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 1 | Climate change has caused regionally different, but mostly negative, impacts on crop yields and quality and marketability of products | high | 2 | train |
4,323 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 7 | Methane emissions significantly impact crop yields by increasing temperatures as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and surface ozone concentrations as a precursor | medium | 1 | train |
4,324 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 9 | Although these estimates were not linked with historical yield changes, more than half of the estimated yield loss is attributable to increasing temperature and ozone concentrations from methane emissions, suggesting the importance of methane mitigation in alleviating yield losses | medium | 1 | train |
4,325 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 10 | Climate change is already affecting livestock production | high | 2 | train |
4,326 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 13 | In aquatic systems, more evidence has accumulated since AR5 on warming-induced shifts (mainly poleward) of species | high | 2 | train |
4,327 | AR6_WGII | 735 | 16 | The effects of climate change on aquaculture are apparent but diverse, depending on the types and species of aquaculture | high | 2 | train |
4,328 | AR6_WGII | 736 | 3 | Climate change will increase malnourished populations through direct impacts on food production and have cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, all of which will reduce access to safe and nutritious food | high | 2 | train |
4,329 | AR6_WGII | 736 | 4 | Extreme climate events will become more frequent and force some of the current food production areas beyond the safe climatic space for production | high | 2 | train |
4,330 | AR6_WGII | 736 | 18 | The safety challenges arise from contamination caused by increased prevalence of pathogens, HAB and toxic inorganic bioaccumulation | high | 2 | train |
4,331 | AR6_WGII | 739 | 13 | Recent warming trends have generally shortened the life cycle of major crops | high | 2 | train |
4,332 | AR6_WGII | 739 | 15 | Conversely, in mid-to-low latitudes in Asia, a review study found that farmers favoured early maturing cultivars to reduce risks of damages due to drought, flood and/or heat (Shaffril et al., 2018), suggesting that region-specific adaptations are already occurring in different parts of the world | high | 2 | train |
4,333 | AR6_WGII | 739 | 17 | Plant breeding, fertilisation, irrigation and integrated pest management have been the major drivers, but many studies have found significant impacts from recent climate trends on crop yield | high | 2 | train |
4,334 | AR6_WGII | 739 | 30 | Nevertheless, yield variability in less productive regions has severe impacts on local food availability and livelihood | high | 2 | train |
4,335 | AR6_WGII | 741 | 13 | Different pest species populations respond differently to ongoing climate change, with some shifting, contracting or expanding their current distribution range and others persisting or disappearing in their current range | high | 2 | train |
4,336 | AR6_WGII | 742 | 1 | Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations greatly influence global yield of major crops | high | 2 | train |
4,337 | AR6_WGII | 742 | 2 | Some studies showed that crop yields in different regions covaried with SST oscillations, suggesting occurrences of tele-connected yield failures (crop losses caused by related factors in distant regions; Table Box 5.1.1) | medium | 1 | train |
4,338 | AR6_WGII | 743 | 6 | Surface ozone concentration has increased substantially since the late 19th century (Cooper et al., 2014; Forster et al., 2021; Gulev et al., 2021; Szopa et al., 2021) and in some locations and times reaches levels that harm plants, animals and human | high | 2 | train |
4,339 | AR6_WGII | 745 | 10 | Social inequity How social inequity increases vulnerability to climate change in cropping systems Gender inequity can create and worsen social vulnerability to climate change impacts within cropping systems | high | 2 | train |
4,340 | AR6_WGII | 745 | 14 | Globally, smallholder food producers are more vulnerable than large-scale producers to climate change impacts | high | 2 | train |
4,341 | AR6_WGII | 745 | 19 | Farmworkers are another social group with heightened vulnerability to climate change | medium | 1 | train |
4,342 | AR6_WGII | 746 | 1 | Recent FACE studies found that the effects of elevated CO 2 are greater under water-limited conditions | medium | 1 | train |
4,343 | AR6_WGII | 746 | 3 | There are significant interactions between CO 2, temperature, cultivars, nitrogen and phosphorous nutrients (Kimball, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020): positive effects of rising CO 2 on yield are significantly reduced by higher temperatures for soybean, wheat and rice | medium | 1 | train |
4,344 | AR6_WGII | 746 | 6 | Elevated CO 2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending on crop species and cultivars | high | 2 | train |
4,345 | AR6_WGII | 746 | 7 | Elevated CO2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending on crop species and cultivars (Mattos et al., 2014; Myers et al., 2014; Dong et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2018a; Jin et al., 2019; Ujiie et al., 2019). TThis is of particular relevance for fruit and vegetable crops given their importance in human nutrition | high | 2 | test |
4,346 | AR6_WGII | 746 | 11 | Additional research confirms that climate change will disproportionately affect crop yields among regions, with more negative than positive effects being expected in most areas, especially in currently warm regions, including Africa and Central and South America | high | 2 | train |
4,347 | AR6_WGII | 750 | 3 | Recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity and harvest | high | 2 | train |
4,348 | AR6_WGII | 750 | 8 | Developmental phases are projected to proceed faster in response to warming | high | 2 | train |
4,349 | AR6_WGII | 750 | 18 | In regions where low temperature is a limiting factor, warming will enable growers to grow a wider range of varieties and obtain better-quality wines | high | 2 | train |
4,350 | AR6_WGII | 750 | 19 | Subtropical and Mediterranean regions will experience major declines in fruit quality for high-quality wines | high | 2 | train |
4,351 | AR6_WGII | 750 | 23 | Box 5.3: Pollinators Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions | high | 2 | train |
4,352 | AR6_WGII | 752 | 15 | Increase in soil temperature will negatively impact SOC, but primarily in higher latitudes | medium | 1 | train |
4,353 | AR6_WGII | 752 | 29 | Soil C sequestration is an important strategy to improve crop and livestock production sustainably that could be applied at large scales and at a low cost, if there was adequate institutional support and labour, using agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping and targeted application of fertilizer and compost | high | 2 | train |
4,354 | AR6_WGII | 753 | 4 | Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on CES | medium | 1 | train |
4,355 | AR6_WGII | 753 | 25 | There are still large uncertainties in the crop model projections (Müller et al., 2021a), but these multiple lines of evidence suggest that warming beyond +2°C (projected to be reached by mid-century under high-emission scenarios) will substantially increase the cost of adaptation and the residual damage to major crops | high | 2 | train |
4,356 | AR6_WGII | 754 | 8 | Plant breeding biotechnology will contribute to adaptation for large-scale producers | high | 2 | train |
4,357 | AR6_WGII | 755 | 1 | Genome sequencing significantly increases the rate and accuracy for identifying genes of agronomic traits that are relevant to climate change, including adaptation to stress from pests and disease, temperature and water extremes | high | 2 | train |
4,358 | AR6_WGII | 755 | 9 | Other breeding approaches assisted by genomics have been making steady gains in introducing traits that adapt crops to climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,359 | AR6_WGII | 755 | 12 | Modern biotechnology has not demonstrated the scale neutrality needed to serve smallholder-dominated agroecosystems, due to a combination of the kinds of traits and restrictions that come from the predominant intellectual property rights instruments used in their commercialisation, as well as the focus on a small number of major crop species | medium | 1 | train |
4,360 | AR6_WGII | 757 | 3 | Diversification improves regulating and supporting ecosystem services such as pest control, soil fertility and health, pollination, nutrient cycling, water regulation and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence) (Barral et al., 2015; Prieto et al., 2015; Tiemann et al., 2015; Schulte et al., 2017; Beillouin et al., 2019a; Dainese et al., 2019; Kuyah et al., 2019; Tamburini et al., 2020), which can in turn mediate yield stability and reduced risk of crop loss according to socio-ecological contexts and time since adoption | high | 2 | train |
4,361 | AR6_WGII | 757 | 14 | Evidence is accumulating that rising temperatures are increasing heat stress in domestic species and affecting productivity | high | 2 | train |
4,362 | AR6_WGII | 757 | 19 | Changing seasonality, increasing frequency of drought and rising temperatures are affecting pastoral systems globally | high | 2 | train |
4,363 | AR6_WGII | 758 | 15 | Recent stagnation in dairy production in West Africa and China may be associated with increased periods of high daily temperatures | low | 0 | train |
4,364 | AR6_WGII | 758 | 17 | Escalating demand for livestock products in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) may necessitate considerable adaptation in the face of new thermal environments | medium | 1 | train |
4,365 | AR6_WGII | 758 | 20 | Under SSP5-8.5 to mid-century, land suitability for livestock production will decrease because of increased heat stress prevalence in mid and lower latitudes | high | 2 | train |
4,366 | AR6_WGII | 758 | 32 | Growing infectious disease burdens in domesticated animals may have wide- ranging impacts on the vulnerability of rural livestock producers in the future, particularly related to human health and projected increases in zoonoses | high | 2 | train |
4,367 | AR6_WGII | 759 | 7 | Gender inequities can act as a risk multiplier, with women being more vulnerable than men to climate-change- induced food insecurity and related risks | high | 2 | train |
4,368 | AR6_WGII | 759 | 23 | The future makeup of grasslands under climate change is uncertain, given the variation in responses of the component species, though this variation may provide a climate buffer (Jones, 2019) | low | 0 | train |
4,369 | AR6_WGII | 761 | 6 | The prevalence and occurrence of some livestock diseases are positively associated with extreme weather events | high | 2 | train |
4,370 | AR6_WGII | 762 | 20 | Climate change will negatively affect the provisioning of social benefits in many of the world’s grasslands | medium | 1 | train |
4,371 | AR6_WGII | 762 | 27 | Combining adaptations can result in increases in benefits in terms of production and livelihoods over and above those attainable from single adaptations | high | 2 | train |
4,372 | AR6_WGII | 764 | 18 | Large pulses of tree mortality were consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions for forests throughout the temperate and boreal biomes | high | 2 | train |
4,373 | AR6_WGII | 764 | 21 | A recent example of the impacts of climatic extremes is the European drought of 2018 (Buras et al., 2020), which led to a significant browning of the vegetation and resulted in widespread tree mortality | high | 2 | train |
4,374 | AR6_WGII | 765 | 2 | However, the observed patterns of post-disturbance recovery vary with region, with reduced tree regeneration reported for the western USA (Stevens-Rumann and Morgan, 2019; Turner et al., 2019) but robust recovery observed in Canada (White et al., 2017) and Central Europe | medium | 1 | train |
4,375 | AR6_WGII | 765 | 30 | Climate-induced disturbances could also reduce the temporal stability of ecosystem service supply (Albrich et al., 2018), increasing the volatility of timber markets | medium | 1 | train |
4,376 | AR6_WGII | 766 | 1 | On a global and regional scale, there is limited evidence and high agreement | medium | 1 | train |
4,377 | AR6_WGII | 766 | 4 | According to these studies, global timber supply will increase as the result of an increase in global forest growth under climate change scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
4,378 | AR6_WGII | 768 | 1 | Evidence emerging since the last assessment report further bolstered the notion that adapting the tree species composition to more warm-tolerant and less disturbance-prone species can significantly mitigate climate change impacts | high | 2 | train |
4,379 | AR6_WGII | 768 | 3 | Furthermore, increasing the diversity of tree species within stands can have positive effects on tree growth and reduce disturbance impacts | high | 2 | train |
4,380 | AR6_WGII | 768 | 5 | Managing for continuous forest cover can also help to maintain the forest microclimate and buffer tree regeneration and the forest floor community against climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,381 | AR6_WGII | 768 | 8 | However, recent evidence suggests that these measures diminish in efficiency under climate change and can have corollary effects on other important forest functions such as carbon storage and habitat quality | medium | 1 | train |
4,382 | AR6_WGII | 768 | 9 | Also, measures targeting landscape structure and composition have proven effective for increasing the climate resilience of forest systems | medium | 1 | train |
4,383 | AR6_WGII | 769 | 33 | Experimental trials have shown that drought stresses increase phytochemical content, either by decreasing biomass or increasing metabolites production | high | 2 | train |
4,384 | AR6_WGII | 771 | 7 | Climate-change-induced impacts of access to wild foods are also of concern in Arctic regions | high | 2 | train |
4,385 | AR6_WGII | 771 | 15 | Communities across other (non-Arctic) parts of North America and Europe also report declining availability of wild foods, with climate change among the perceived drivers for decline | medium | 1 | train |
4,386 | AR6_WGII | 775 | 2 | Marine heatwaves have increased in frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling since the 1980s (high confidence), and their intensity and duration have also increased | medium | 1 | train |
4,387 | AR6_WGII | 775 | 4 | The surface open ocean pH has declined globally over the last 40 years by 0.003–0.026 pH per decade (virtually certain), and a decline in the ocean interior pH has been observed in all ocean basins over the past two to three decades | high | 2 | train |
4,388 | AR6_WGII | 775 | 15 | Observed impacts in some inland aquatic systems indicate substantial productivity reductions | medium | 1 | train |
4,389 | AR6_WGII | 775 | 27 | These changes are of particular concern in regions with few nutrition alternatives, such as low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, and Central and South America | high | 2 | train |
4,390 | AR6_WGII | 775 | 28 | Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under continuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and pollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,391 | AR6_WGII | 776 | 6 | The concern over aquatic food products’ safety due to climate change is increasing | high | 2 | train |
4,392 | AR6_WGII | 776 | 9 | The social vulnerability can differ largely between locations, even between relatively close coastal or inland communities (Bennett et al., 2014; Maina et al., 2016; Ndhlovu et al., 2017; Martins et al., 2019) and among inhabitants within a location, depending on factors such as access to other economic activities, education, health, adults in the household, and political connections | high | 2 | train |
4,393 | AR6_WGII | 776 | 14 | In general, gendered division of labour tends to cause lower salaries for women and different perception and experience of risk to climate change impacts | high | 2 | train |
4,394 | AR6_WGII | 776 | 17 | Coordinated fisheries management can substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate (Pinsky et al., 2020), but a great deal of political will, capacity building and collective action will be necessary | high | 2 | train |
4,395 | AR6_WGII | 776 | 18 | Today, approximately half the world’s population (~4 billion out of 7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe water scarcity for at least 1 month per year (medium confidence) (Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable as they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors | high | 2 | train |
4,396 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 8 | Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward by the end of the century under RCP8.5, while skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to increase abundance in tropical areas of the eastern Pacific but decrease in the equatorial western Pacific | medium | 1 | train |
4,397 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 12 | However, in general, where land barriers constrain the latitudinal shifts, the expected impacts of climate change are population declines and reduced productivity | high | 2 | train |
4,398 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 13 | Besides direct impacts on the abundance of fisheries-targeted species, climate-change-induced proliferation of invasive species could also affect fisheries’ productivity | low | 0 | train |
4,399 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 14 | Shifting marine fisheries will affect national economies | high | 2 | train |
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