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4,100 | AR6_WGII | 603 | 14 | Many wetland-dependent species have seen a long-term decline, with the Living Planet Index showing that 81% of populations of freshwater species are in decline and others being threatened by extinction (Davidson and Finlayson, 2018; Darrah et al., 2019; Diaz et al., 2019) | high | 2 | train |
4,101 | AR6_WGII | 603 | 34 | Freshwater ecosystems are also under extreme pressure from changes in land use and water pollution, with climate change exacerbating these, such as the further decline of snow cover (DeBeer et al., 2016) and increased consumptive use of fresh water, and leading to the decline, and possibly extinction, of many freshwater-dependent populations | high | 2 | train |
4,102 | AR6_WGII | 604 | 2 | The predominant key drivers are changes in land use and water pollution | high | 2 | train |
4,103 | AR6_WGII | 604 | 8 | However, the large majority acknowledges reduction of water availability due to climate change as having the potential to exacerbate tensions (de Stefano et al., 2017; Waha et al., 2017), especially in regions and within groups dependent on agriculture for food production (von Uexkull et al., 2016; Koubi, 2019) | high | 2 | train |
4,104 | AR6_WGII | 604 | 12 | However, evidence suggests that changes in rainfall patterns amplify existing tensions (Abel et al., 2019); examples include Syria, Iraq (Abbas et al., 2016; von Lossow, 2016) and Yemen (Mohamed et al., 2017) | medium | 1 | train |
4,105 | AR6_WGII | 604 | 13 | There is also medium evidence that in some regions of Africa (e.g., Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo), there are links between observed water stress and individual attitude for participating in violence, particularly for the least resilient individuals (von Uexkull et al., 2020) | medium | 1 | train |
4,106 | AR6_WGII | 604 | 17 | Climate change concerns also play a role in stimulating cooperative efforts, as in the case of the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin (Mirumachi, 2015; Link et al., 2016) | medium | 1 | train |
4,107 | AR6_WGII | 605 | 1 | Furthermore, household water insecurity has also been singled out as a driver of migration, given its physical, mental health and socioeconomic effects (Stoler et al., 2021) | medium | 1 | train |
4,108 | AR6_WGII | 605 | 4 | The outcome is determined mainly by the socioeconomic, political and environmental context | medium | 1 | train |
4,109 | AR6_WGII | 605 | 10 | Climate-driven hydrological changes are affecting culturally significant terrestrial and freshwater species and ecosystems, particularly for Indigenous Peoples, local communities and traditional peoples in the Arctic, high mountain areas, and small islands | high | 2 | train |
4,110 | AR6_WGII | 607 | 11 | In summary, the cultural water uses of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and traditional peoples are being impacted by climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,111 | AR6_WGII | 607 | 14 | Continuation of projected warming and other physical mechanisms will further accelerate the melting of snow cover and glaciers and thawing of permafrost | high | 2 | train |
4,112 | AR6_WGII | 607 | 21 | Water cycle variability and extremes are projected to increase faster than average changes in most regions of the world and under all emission scenarios | high | 2 | train |
4,113 | AR6_WGII | 607 | 25 | Importantly, in most land regions, the future changes are subject to high uncertainty even in the sign of the projected change | high | 2 | train |
4,114 | AR6_WGII | 607 | 27 | For any given location, the range of projected changes generally increases with global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,115 | AR6_WGII | 608 | 2 | The geographical patterns of local agreement/disagreement in projected precipitation change remain broadly similar with increased global warming, but the range of uncertainty generally increases | high | 2 | train |
4,116 | AR6_WGII | 609 | 10 | Taken together, these projections of more intense precipitation and changes in the length of dry spells give a clear picture of increasingly volatile precipitation regimes, with many regions seeing both longer dry spells and heavier events when precipitation does occur | high | 2 | train |
4,117 | AR6_WGII | 609 | 14 | The ranges of projected precipitation changes are smaller at lower levels of global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,118 | AR6_WGII | 609 | 15 | Either an increase or decrease is possible in most regions, but there is an agreement among models on the increase in the far north | high | 2 | train |
4,119 | AR6_WGII | 609 | 16 | There is a stronger model consensus on heavy precipitation increasing with global warming over most land areas | high | 2 | train |
4,120 | AR6_WGII | 609 | 17 | There are widely varying projections of change in dry spell length (high confidence), but in regions with increasing projected dry spells, the potential increase is larger at higher levels of global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,121 | AR6_WGII | 611 | 5 | In addition, the impacts of rising CO 2 concentrations on plant stomata and leaf area play a role in model projections of ET change | high | 2 | train |
4,122 | AR6_WGII | 612 | 10 | In summary, projected soil moisture changes increase with levels of global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,123 | AR6_WGII | 612 | 11 | In the CMIP6 multi- model ensemble at 4°C global warming, decreased soil moisture of up to 40% is projected in Amazonia, southern Africa and western Europe in all models | high | 2 | train |
4,124 | AR6_WGII | 613 | 3 | Constraining warming to 1.5°C would prevent the thawing of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5 million km2 compared to thawing under 2°C | medium | 1 | train |
4,125 | AR6_WGII | 614 | 3 | Projections of snow cover metrics [IPCC AR6 WGI, 2021 (Section 9.5.3.3)] suggest a further decrease in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover extent (SCE), though the inter-model spread is considerable (Lute et al., 2015; Thackeray et al., 2016; Kong and Wang, 2017; Henderson et al., 2018) | high | 2 | train |
4,126 | AR6_WGII | 614 | 12 | In summary, in most basins fed by glaciers, runoff is projected to increase initially in the 21st century and then decline | medium | 1 | train |
4,127 | AR6_WGII | 614 | 13 | Projections suggest a further decrease in seasonal snow cover extent and mass in mid to high latitudes and high mountains | high | 2 | train |
4,128 | AR6_WGII | 614 | 14 | Permafrost will continue to thaw throughout the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
4,129 | AR6_WGII | 614 | 25 | Changes in streamflow could increase the number of people facing water scarcity or insecurity | high | 2 | train |
4,130 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 1 | Nevertheless, since projected changes typically increase with global warming, limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C substantially reduces the potential for either large increases or decreases in mean streamflow compared to 3°C or 4°C (Warszawski et al., 2014; Falkner, 2016; Gosling et al., 2017; Figure 4.16) | high | 2 | train |
4,131 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 24 | In summary, mean and extreme streamflow changes are projected over most of the ice-free land surface | high | 2 | train |
4,132 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 25 | The magnitude of streamflow change is projected to increase with global warming in most regions | high | 2 | train |
4,133 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 27 | Annual mean runoff in one third of assessed glacierised catchments is projected to decline by at least 10% by 2100 under RCP4.5, with the most significant reductions in central Asia and the Andes | medium | 1 | train |
4,134 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 29 | Substantial fractions of ensemble projections disagree with the multi-model mean | high | 2 | train |
4,135 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 30 | With 1.5 and 2°C global warming, approximately 15 and 20% of the current global population, respectively, would experience both an increase in high streamflows and a decrease in low streamflows | medium | 1 | train |
4,136 | AR6_WGII | 616 | 33 | Both AR5 (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014) and SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) concluded that spring snowmelt floods would be earlier (high confidence), and hazards from floods involving meltwater will gradually diminish, particularly at low elevation | medium | 1 | train |
4,137 | AR6_WGII | 618 | 14 | In all climate scenarios projected, earlier snowmelt leads to earlier spring floods | high | 2 | train |
4,138 | AR6_WGII | 619 | 12 | Projected increases in flooding pose increasing risks, with a 1.2–1.8 and 4–5 times increase in global GDP loss at 2°C and 4°C compared to 1.5°C warming, respectively | medium | 1 | train |
4,139 | AR6_WGII | 619 | 13 | Without adaptation, projected increases in flooding are 1.4 to 2.5 and 2.5 to 3.9 times in global GDP loss at 2°C and 3°C compared to 1.5°C warming, respectively | medium | 1 | train |
4,140 | AR6_WGII | 619 | 16 | However, the snowmelt floods are projected to decrease (medium confidence) and occur 25–30 d earlier in the year by the end of the 21st century with RCP8.5 | high | 2 | train |
4,141 | AR6_WGII | 619 | 19 | Many studies focus on precipitation-based drought indices (Carrão et al., 2018), but higher evaporative demands and changes in snow cover are additional drivers of hydrological, agricultural and ecological drought | medium | 1 | train |
4,142 | AR6_WGII | 621 | 10 | In summary, the likelihood of drought is projected to increase in many regions over the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
4,143 | AR6_WGII | 621 | 11 | Different forms of drought broadly show similar patterns of projected change in many regions (high confidence), but the frequency of agricultural drought is projected to increase over wider areas than for meteorological drought | medium | 1 | train |
4,144 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 5 | Overall, several recent studies of climate change impacts on groundwater in different parts of the world have concluded that projected groundwater recharge could either increase or decrease, and results are often uncertain | high | 2 | train |
4,145 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 10 | An emerging body of studies have projected amplification of episodic recharge in the tropics and semiarid regions due to extreme precipitation under global warming | medium | 1 | test |
4,146 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 11 | Climate change is also projected to impact groundwater-dependent ecosystems and groundwater quality negatively | medium | 1 | train |
4,147 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 27 | In the tropics and semiarid regions, growing precipitation intensification under global warming may enhance the resilience of groundwater through increased episodic recharge | medium | 1 | train |
4,148 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 31 | In addition, SROCC reported water quality degradation due to the release of legacy contaminants in glaciers and permafrost | medium | 1 | train |
4,149 | AR6_WGII | 622 | 33 | Water insecurity due to water quality degradation is projected to increase under climate change due to warming, enhanced floods and sea level rise (Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes, 2014; Dyer et al., 2014; Whitehead et al., 2015) | medium | 1 | train |
4,150 | AR6_WGII | 623 | 7 | In summary, climate change is projected to increase water pollution incidences, salinisation and eutrophication due to increasing drought and flood events, sea level rise and water temperature rise, respectively, in some local rivers and lakes, but there is a dearth of exact quantification at a global scale | medium | 1 | train |
4,151 | AR6_WGII | 623 | 18 | Herewith, recent studies demonstrate increasing impact of the projected climate change (increase of precipitation, thawing permafrost) on soil erosion | medium | 1 | train |
4,152 | AR6_WGII | 624 | 1 | SR1.5 further reinforced AR5 conclusions in terms of projected crop yield reductions, especially for wheat and rice (high confidence), loss of livestock and increased risks for small-scale fisheries and aquaculture | medium | 1 | train |
4,153 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 16 | In summary, agricultural water use is projected to increase globally due to cropland expansion and intensification and climate change- induced changes in water requirements | high | 2 | train |
4,154 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 17 | Parts of temperate drylands may experience increases in suitability for rain- fed production based on mean climate conditions; however, risks to rain-fed agriculture increase globally because of increasing variability in precipitation regimes and changes in water availability | high | 2 | train |
4,155 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 19 | Regions reliant on snowmelt for irrigation purposes will be affected by substantial reductions in water availability | high | 2 | train |
4,156 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 29 | For example, regions like central Africa, India, central Asia and northern high-latitude areas are projected to see more than 20% increases in gross hydropower potential | high | 2 | train |
4,157 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 31 | The Mediterranean region is projected to see almost a 40% reduction in hydropower production | high | 2 | train |
4,158 | AR6_WGII | 625 | 32 | On the other hand, northern Europe and India are projected to add to their hydropower production capacity due to climate change by mid-century | high | 2 | train |
4,159 | AR6_WGII | 626 | 16 | Apart from climate impacts on hydropower production, climate- induced flood loads and reservoir water level change may lead to dam failure under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios (Fluixá-Sanmartín et al., 2018; Fluixá-Sanmartín et al., 2019) | medium | 1 | train |
4,160 | AR6_WGII | 626 | 30 | A systematic review showed consistent decreases in mid to end of the century in thermal power production capacity due to insufficiency of cooling water in southern, western and eastern Europe (high confidence); North America and Oceania (high confidence), central, southern and western Asia (high confidence) and western and southern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
4,161 | AR6_WGII | 626 | 31 | Overall, apart from emissions benefits, moving away from thermal power generation to other renewable energy will also lower the chances of climate-induced curtailment of energy production | high | 2 | train |
4,162 | AR6_WGII | 627 | 4 | While not WaSH-specific, AR5 showed that more people would experience water scarcity and floods (high confidence) and identified WaSH failure due to climate change as an emergent risk | medium | 1 | train |
4,163 | AR6_WGII | 627 | 5 | In addition, both SR1.5 (IPCC, 2018a) and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019b) projected the risk from droughts, heavy precipitation, water scarcity, wildfire damage and permafrost degradation to be higher at 2°C warming than 1.5°C | medium | 1 | train |
4,164 | AR6_WGII | 627 | 6 | Waterborne diseases result from complex causal relationships between climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that are not fully understood or modelled (Boholm and Prutzer, 2017) | high | 2 | train |
4,165 | AR6_WGII | 627 | 8 | In addition, changes in thermotolerance and chlorine resistance of certain viruses have been observed in laboratory experiments simulating different temperatures and sunlight conditions (Carratalà et al., 2020), increasing potential health risks even where traditional water treatment exists (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014) | low | 0 | train |
4,166 | AR6_WGII | 628 | 3 | These challenges include population growth, the rapid pace of urbanisation and inadequate investment, particularly in less developed economies with limited governance capacity | high | 2 | train |
4,167 | AR6_WGII | 628 | 7 | Modified streamflow is projected to affect the amount and variability of inflow to urban storage reservoirs | high | 2 | train |
4,168 | AR6_WGII | 628 | 13 | In summary, rapid population growth, urbanisation, ageing infrastructure and changes in water use are responsible for increasing the vulnerability of urban and peri-urban areas to extreme rainfall and drought, particularly in less developed economies with limited governance capacity | high | 2 | train |
4,169 | AR6_WGII | 628 | 14 | In addition, modified stream flows due to climate change (Section 4.4.3) are projected to affect the amount and variability of inflows to storage reservoirs that serve urban areas and may exacerbate challenges to reservoir capacity, such as sedimentation and poor water quality | high | 2 | train |
4,170 | AR6_WGII | 628 | 16 | Rising water temperatures are also projected to cause shifts in freshwater species distribution and worsen water quality problems | high | 2 | train |
4,171 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 14 | Furthermore, according to IPCC SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018), if the world warms by 2°C–4°C by 2050, rates of human conflict could increase, but again, the role of hydrological change in this was not explicit | medium | 1 | train |
4,172 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 16 | Yet, since both conflictive and cooperative events are possible under conditions of climatic variability, whether conflict arises or increases depends on several contextual socioeconomic and political factors, including the adaptive capacity of the riparian states (Koubi, 2019), the existence of power asymmetries (Dinar et al., 2019) and pre-existing social tensions | medium | 1 | train |
4,173 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 18 | However, to date, other factors are considered more influential drivers of conflict, including lack of natural resource use regulations (Linke et al., 2018b), societal exclusion (von Uexkull et al., 2016; van Weezel, 2019), poor infrastructures and a history of violent conflict (Detges, 2016) | high | 2 | train |
4,174 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 21 | On the other side, intergroup cohesion (De Juan and Hänze, 2020) and policies that improve societal development and good governance reduce the risk of conflict associated with the challenges to adaptation to climate change (Hegre et al., 2016; Witmer et al., 2017) | medium | 1 | train |
4,175 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 24 | In addition, recent scenario analysis in global transboundary basins supports the finding that there is more potential for conflict in areas already under water stress, such as central Asia and the northern parts of Africa (Munia et al., 2020) | medium | 1 | train |
4,176 | AR6_WGII | 629 | 27 | Evidence exists that climate change imposes additional pressures on regions already under water stress or fragile and conflict-prone | medium | 1 | train |
4,177 | AR6_WGII | 630 | 28 | In synthesis, fundamental changes in observed climate are already visible in water-related outcomes | high | 2 | train |
4,178 | AR6_WGII | 631 | 16 | Projected increases in hydrological extremes pose increasing risks to societal systems globally | high | 2 | train |
4,179 | AR6_WGII | 631 | 18 | Similarly, a near doubling of drought duration (Naumann et al., 2018) and an increasing share of the population affected by various types, durations and severity levels of drought are projected | high | 2 | train |
4,180 | AR6_WGII | 633 | 18 | While there are increasing potentials of ~2–6% for hydropower production by 2080 (medium confidence), risks to thermoelectric power production increase for most regions | high | 2 | train |
4,181 | AR6_WGII | 633 | 20 | Increasing hydrological extremes also have consequences for the maintenance and further improvement of the provision of WaSH services | medium | 1 | train |
4,182 | AR6_WGII | 633 | 24 | Globally, climate change will exacerbate existing challenges for urban water services, driven by further population growth, the rapid pace of urbanisation and inadequate investment, particularly in less developed economies with limited governance capacity | high | 2 | train |
4,183 | AR6_WGII | 633 | 27 | However, water-specific conflicts between sectors and users may be exacerbated for some regions of the world | high | 2 | train |
4,184 | AR6_WGII | 633 | 34 | Hydrological change, especially increasing extreme events, pose risks to the cultural uses of water of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and traditional peoples (high confidence), with implications for the physical well-being of these groups | high | 2 | train |
4,185 | AR6_WGII | 634 | 1 | Small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages | high | 2 | train |
4,186 | AR6_WGII | 634 | 7 | In addition, FWLs are threatened by climate change due to changes in rainfall patterns, extended droughts and wash-over events caused by storm surges and sea level rise | high | 2 | train |
4,187 | AR6_WGII | 634 | 23 | In sum, small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages | high | 2 | train |
4,188 | AR6_WGII | 634 | 24 | For atoll islands, freshwater availability may be severely limited as early as 2030 | low | 0 | train |
4,189 | AR6_WGII | 634 | 25 | The effects of temperature increase, changing rainfall patterns, sea level rise and population pressure combined with limited options available for water-related adaptation leave small islands partially water-insecure currently, with increasing risks in the near-term and at warming above 1.5°C | high | 2 | train |
4,190 | AR6_WGII | 635 | 2 | There is high confidence that water-related adaptation is occurring in the agricultural sector (Acevedo et al., 2020; Ricciardi et al., 2020), and water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector makes up the majority of documented local, regional and global evidence of implemented adaptation | high | 2 | test |
4,191 | AR6_WGII | 635 | 3 | However, while there is increasing evidence of adaptation and its benefits across multiple dimensions, the link between adaptation benefits and climate risk reduction is unclear due to methodological challenges | medium | 1 | train |
4,192 | AR6_WGII | 635 | 4 | On the other hand, while it is methodologically possible to measure the effectiveness of future adaptation in reducing climate risks, the main limitation here is that not all possible ranges of future adaptations can be modelled given the limitations of climate and impact models | high | 2 | train |
4,193 | AR6_WGII | 635 | 10 | This measure is deemed to have economic benefits and benefits for vulnerable communities who adopt this measure (high confidence) and benefits in terms of water saving and positive ecological and sociocultural benefits | medium | 1 | train |
4,194 | AR6_WGII | 635 | 22 | In addition, this measure is shown to have positive economic benefits (high confidence) and also benefits on other parameters | medium | 1 | train |
4,195 | AR6_WGII | 636 | 14 | In sum, water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector is widely documented, with irrigation, agricultural water management, crop diversification and improved agronomic practices among the most common adaptation measures adopted | high | 2 | train |
4,196 | AR6_WGII | 636 | 25 | Overall, freshwater withdrawals for adapted cooling systems under all scenarios are projected to decline by −3% to −63% by 2100 compared to the base year of 2000 (Fricko et al., 2016) | medium | 1 | train |
4,197 | AR6_WGII | 636 | 30 | Furthermore, reducing the share of thermoelectric power with solar and wind energy (Tobin et al., 2018; Arango-Aramburo et al., 2019; Emodi et al., 2019) can be synergistic from both climate and water perspectives, as solar and wind energy have lower water footprints | high | 2 | train |
4,198 | AR6_WGII | 636 | 34 | For instance, sharing of hydropower revenues and profits to fund local infrastructure and pay dividends to local people has been practiced in Nepal and in some countries of the Mekong basin to enhance the social acceptability of hydropower projects (Balasubramanya et al., 2014; Shrestha et al., 2016) | low | 0 | train |
4,199 | AR6_WGII | 637 | 28 | Further, while irrigation expansion is one of the most commonly proposed adaptation responses, there are limitations to further increases in water use, as many regions are already facing water limitations under current climatic conditions | high | 2 | train |
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