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4,400 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 19 | Ocean acidification is also expected to drive large global economic impacts | medium | 1 | train |
4,401 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 23 | In addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate change will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads | high | 2 | train |
4,402 | AR6_WGII | 777 | 26 | Climate warming may enhance northward colonisation of water bodies of commercial freshwater species in the Arctic, where there are few ecological competitors | medium | 1 | train |
4,403 | AR6_WGII | 778 | 2 | Specifically, overfishing is the most critical non-climatic driver affecting the sustainability of fisheries, and therefore improving management could help rebuild fish stocks, reduce ecosystem impacts and increase the adaptive capacity of fishing | high | 2 | train |
4,404 | AR6_WGII | 778 | 12 | For Pacific Islands and Coastal Territories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment from local governments and the private sector (Rosegrant et al., 2016), and reducing dependence on or finding alternatives to vulnerable marine resources (Johnson et al., 2020; Mabe and Asase, 2020).Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the networks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups) | high | 2 | train |
4,405 | AR6_WGII | 778 | 13 | Improving information flows allows for a more efficient co-management implementation | medium | 1 | train |
4,406 | AR6_WGII | 778 | 16 | Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as partners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, enhancing the usefulness of assessments (Bindoff et al., 2019) and facilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable solutions | medium | 1 | train |
4,407 | AR6_WGII | 779 | 2 | Marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems are already experiencing species shifts in response to climate change (very high confidence) (see also Sections 2.4.2.1. and 3.4.3., Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), with subsequent impacts on food provisioning services, pests and diseases | high | 2 | train |
4,408 | AR6_WGII | 779 | 8 | Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, especially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food and nutrition | high | 2 | train |
4,409 | AR6_WGII | 779 | 15 | Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of resolving sovereignty claims and climate justice | high | 2 | train |
4,410 | AR6_WGII | 780 | 1 | Flexible and rapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets (Nguyen et al., 2016; Pentz and Klenk, 2020), and may only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these | high | 2 | train |
4,411 | AR6_WGII | 780 | 5 | Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global temperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity | high | 2 | train |
4,412 | AR6_WGII | 780 | 16 | Terrestrial Species Shifts There is robust evidence of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent as well as some extreme-polar-adapted species | high | 2 | train |
4,413 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 1 | Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators | high | 2 | train |
4,414 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 4 | Aquaculture can contribute to SDGs by reducing poverty and food insecurity, filling increasing aquatic food demand shortages from declining capture fisheries production | medium | 1 | train |
4,415 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 12 | Marine heatwaves have been increasing in both incidence and longevity over the past century (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Oliver et al., 2018; Bricknell et al., 2021), with productivity consequences for marine aquaculture (mariculture), carbon sequestration and local species extinctions | high | 2 | train |
4,416 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 13 | Temperature increases related to El Niño climatic oscillations have caused mass fish mortalities either through warming waters (e.g., Pacific threadfin in Hawaii (McCoy et al., 2017)) or associated HABs (e.g., 12% loss of Atlantic salmon as well as other fish and shellfish in Chile in 2016, with estimated USD 800 million in losses | high | 2 | train |
4,417 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 14 | Increases in sea lice parasite infestations on salmon are related to higher salinity and warmer waters | medium | 1 | train |
4,418 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 15 | Ocean acidification is having negative impacts on the sustainability of mariculture production | high | 2 | train |
4,419 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 16 | Ocean oxygen levels are declining due to climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2021), and decreased oxygen (hypoxia) has negative impacts on fish physiology (Cadiz et al., 2018; Hvas and Oppedal, 2019; Martos-Sitcha et al., 2019; Perera et al., 2021), fish growth, behaviour and sensitivity to concurrent stressors | high | 2 | train |
4,420 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 17 | Observed climate impacts on inland aquaculture systems have generally been site and region specific | high | 2 | test |
4,421 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 18 | Salinity intrusions into freshwater aquaculture systems have changed oxygen and water quality of inland ponds, resulting in mortalities in areas such as India and Bangladesh | medium | 1 | train |
4,422 | AR6_WGII | 784 | 19 | Rapid changes in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods and erosion have created significant production losses for aquatic farmers in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam and Ghana | medium | 1 | train |
4,423 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 2 | Common vulnerabilities to inland and marine aquaculture include increasing incidence and toxicity of HABs related to warming waters, causing fish kills and product consumption risks, negatively impacting the productivity and stability of production sectors and reliant communities | high | 2 | train |
4,424 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 8 | Climate uncertainty and data limitations hinder vulnerability assess- ments | high | 2 | train |
4,425 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 9 | Filling data gaps with mon- itoring | high | 2 | train |
4,426 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 11 | In the majority of lower-middle-income countries, seaweed culture is dominated by women in family-owned businesses as in Zanzibar and the Philippines (Brugere et al., 2020; Ramirez et al., 2020), where women are not always paid directly but contribute to family incomes | high | 2 | train |
4,427 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 13 | Women employed in aquaculture cooperatives gained adaptive capacity, which reduced gender inequities | medium | 1 | train |
4,428 | AR6_WGII | 786 | 14 | Women in aquaculture experience competing roles between employment, childcare and home duties (high confidence) (Morgan et al., 2015; Lauria et al., 2018; Chávez et al., 2019; see Cross- Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18) and differ from men in terms of perceptions of environmental risk, climate change and adaptation behaviour, with limited contributions to decision making | medium | 1 | train |
4,429 | AR6_WGII | 787 | 5 | Sensitivities for marine finfish may be high even under +1.5–2.0°C | medium | 1 | train |
4,430 | AR6_WGII | 787 | 7 | Marine heatwaves are predicted to increase in occurrence, intensity and persistence under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 by 2100 (Oliver et al., 2019; Bricknell et al., 2021), with risk partly mitigated by husbandry | medium | 1 | train |
4,431 | AR6_WGII | 788 | 1 | Climate change is predicted to affect the incidence, magnitude and virulence of finfish disease such as Vibriosis (Barber et al., 2016; Mohamad et al., 2019a; Mohamad et al., 2019b), but specific host–pathogen–climate relationships are not yet established | high | 2 | train |
4,432 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 2 | Shellfish growth will increase with warming waters until tolerances are reached, such as through extreme El Niño events | high | 2 | train |
4,433 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 3 | Rising temperatures and ocean acidification will result in losses of primary productivity and farmed species from tropical and subtropical regions, and gains in higher latitudes | high | 2 | train |
4,434 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 4 | Shellfish Vibrio infections will increase with warming waters and extreme events, increasing shellfish mortalities | medium | 1 | train |
4,435 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 5 | Bivalve larvae are known to be highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (high confidence) (see Section 3.3, Bindoff et al., 2019), with projected regional and species-specific levels of impact | high | 2 | train |
4,436 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 6 | Ocean acidification is also projected to weaken shells, affecting productivity and processing | high | 2 | train |
4,437 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 9 | Projected thermal increases of 1.5°C will reduce ecosystem services, further reduced under 2°C warming, with associated increases in acidification, hypoxia, dead zones, flooding and water restrictions | medium | 1 | train |
4,438 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 10 | Sudden production losses from extreme climate events can exacerbate food security challenges across production sectors, including aquaculture, increasing global hunger | high | 2 | train |
4,439 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 13 | Mangrove reforestation efforts in Asia may have some effectiveness in re-creating important nursery grounds for aquatic species | low | 0 | test |
4,440 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 14 | Families are highly vulnerable to climate change where nutritional needs are being met by self-production, such as in Mozambique, Namibia (Villasante et al., 2015), Zambia (Kaminski et al., 2018) and Bangladesh | high | 2 | train |
4,441 | AR6_WGII | 790 | 15 | Climate change will therefore affect multiple ecosystem services where ultimately decisions on balance or trade-offs will vary with regional perceptions of service value | high | 2 | train |
4,442 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 6 | Early participation of stakeholders in adaptive planning has promoted action and ownership of results (high confidence), such as in India and the USA (Link et al., 2015; FAO, 2018c; Soto et al., 2018) Early outreach, education and knowledge gap assessments raise awareness, where utilisation of local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge and scientific involvement support informed adaptive planning and uptake for all stakeholders | high | 2 | train |
4,443 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 7 | Supporting the active involvement of women helps address gender inequity and perceived risk, particularly for smallholder farmers | high | 2 | train |
4,444 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 8 | However, regional and national political influences, financial and technical capacity, governance planning and policy development will ultimately support or hinder adaptation for aquaculture | high | 2 | train |
4,445 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 10 | Species diversification through co-culture, integrated aquaculture– agriculture (e.g., rice–fish) or integrated multi-trophic culture (e.g., shrimp–tilapia–seaweed or finfish–bivalve–seaweed) may maintain farm long-term performance and viability by: creating new aquaculture opportunities; promoting societal and environmental stability; reducing GHG emissions through reduced feed usage and waste; and carbon sequestration | medium | 1 | train |
4,446 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 12 | Selective breeding of species in aquaculture systems can promote climate resilience | medium | 1 | test |
4,447 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 18 | Projections of climate on aquaculture production traits are not well understood (Lhorente et al., 2019); therefore, genetic diversity needs to be maintained to ensure population fitness | high | 2 | train |
4,448 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 20 | However, land-based aquaculture requires large capital and operational costs and use of land, increasing conflicts between land and water use, have increased energy demands (increasing GHG if fossil fuels are the primary energy source), require necessary expertise and will not reduce outgrowing exposures | high | 2 | train |
4,449 | AR6_WGII | 791 | 21 | Geographical selection of marine farm sites may prevent climate productivity declines | medium | 1 | train |
4,450 | AR6_WGII | 792 | 2 | Building coastal protection, stronger cages and mooring systems, and deeper ponds and using sheltered bays can reduce escapees and mortalities related to flooding, increased storms and extreme events | medium | 1 | train |
4,451 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 1 | Other adaptation options for limited water supply are government equitable water allocations and water storage | high | 2 | train |
4,452 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 2 | Feed formulations and improved feed conversion can reduce climate- associated stress for freshwater species, significantly reducing waste and increase sustainability | medium | 1 | train |
4,453 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 8 | Improved farm management is a key opportunity | high | 2 | train |
4,454 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 10 | Specialised industry portals (Pacific shellfish) and government-established monitoring programmes (Chilean salmon) and other observational networks (e.g., Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON)) can provide real-time monitoring and early-warning event alerts and facilitate aquaculture decision making | medium | 1 | train |
4,455 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 11 | Seasonal forecasting, downscaled models and early-warning systems provide valuable regional or farm site risk information (Hobday et al., 2018; Galappaththi et al., 2020b; Whitney et al., 2020), but monitoring will need to be useful for farmers, involve farmers, and be accurate, timely, cost-effective, reviewed and maintained in order to ensure uptake | high | 2 | train |
4,456 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 12 | Early-warning systems for HABs enable rapid decision making and risk mitigation | medium | 1 | test |
4,457 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 13 | New tools, strategies and observations are needed to predict HAB occurrences and range shifts with changing climate | high | 2 | train |
4,458 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 15 | Indigenous groups differ in opinions on aquaculture acceptability, implications for coastal management and territorial rights | high | 2 | train |
4,459 | AR6_WGII | 793 | 18 | Therefore policy, economic, knowledge and other support must ensure representation with traditional and other stakeholder ecological knowledge at national, regional and local levels to facilitate climate change adaptation and safeguard human rights for poor and vulnerable groups | high | 2 | train |
4,460 | AR6_WGII | 794 | 7 | Research indicates that mixed crop–livestock systems are often more resilient to climate change | medium | 1 | train |
4,461 | AR6_WGII | 797 | 11 | The adoption and maintenance of agroforestry practices require appropriate incentives or the removal of barriers | high | 2 | train |
4,462 | AR6_WGII | 798 | 2 | The relative environmental impact of hydroponic systems is lower com- pared with conventional systems owing to the significant reductions in land use and fertilizer usage | high | 2 | train |
4,463 | AR6_WGII | 798 | 3 | While studies indicate that aquaponics and hydroponics have higher yields and a lower environmental footprint than conventional agriculture | medium | 1 | train |
4,464 | AR6_WGII | 798 | 20 | The vulnerability of many crop–livestock keepers to climate change is particularly affected by property and grazing rights | high | 2 | train |
4,465 | AR6_WGII | 799 | 11 | Shade-grown cocoa and coffee agroforestry systems provide an array of ecosystem services, including regulating pests and diseases, maintaining soil fertility, maintaining biodiversity and carbon sequestration | high | 2 | train |
4,466 | AR6_WGII | 799 | 32 | Adaptation measures in such systems need to consider co-benefits and negative trade-offs, especially in vulnerable communities, to avoid widening further the inequities, rural livelihood loss, migration and marginalisation, and ensure progress towards the SDGs | high | 2 | train |
4,467 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 4 | Climate change can affect the growth and geographical expansion of these fungi | high | 2 | train |
4,468 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 10 | The occurrence of toxin-producing fungi will increase and expand from tropical and subtropical areas into new regions and where appropriate capacity for surveillance and risk management is lacking | medium | 1 | train |
4,469 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 11 | The increase in toxigenic fungi in crops, and consequent contamination of staple foods with mycotoxins, will increase the risks of human and animal exposure | high | 2 | train |
4,470 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 12 | In aquatic systems, toxins produced during HABs also cause food safety problems | high | 2 | train |
4,471 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 14 | Vibrio-related mortalities from finfish consumption are expected to rise with climate change (water temperature, salinity, oxygen and pH) | medium | 1 | train |
4,472 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 15 | For shellfish species, oxygen deficits (Mohamad et al., 2019b), sea level rise (Deeb et al., 2018) and temperature (Green et al., 2019) will be most important for food safety.Food safety is also anticipated to worsen from increased contaminant bioaccumulation under climate-induced warming | high | 2 | train |
4,473 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 17 | Occurrence of bacterial pathogens such as Salmonella and Campylobacter will increase with rising temperatures | high | 2 | train |
4,474 | AR6_WGII | 800 | 21 | Increases in rainfall intensity will have some effect on the transport of heavy metals by enhancing runoff from soil and increasing the leaching of heavy metals into water systems, with magnitudes dependent on local conditions | high | 2 | train |
4,475 | AR6_WGII | 801 | 15 | Climate change can alter insect damage in at least two ways: increases in reproductive rate from temperature increases and changes in pheromone effectiveness | high | 2 | train |
4,476 | AR6_WGII | 801 | 40 | Climate change impacts will increase most global prices relative to early 21st century levels, with varying effects on the cost of food imports | high | 2 | train |
4,477 | AR6_WGII | 803 | 16 | Climate change is already contributing to reduced food security and nutrition and will continue to do so | high | 2 | train |
4,478 | AR6_WGII | 805 | 1 | Climate change will make efforts to reduce this threat more difficult to achieve | medium | 1 | train |
4,479 | AR6_WGII | 805 | 6 | Several CIDs increase the number of people experiencing food insecurity | high | 2 | train |
4,480 | AR6_WGII | 806 | 2 | Labour capacity, supply and productivity loss in moderate outdoor work due to heat stress is estimated between 2% and 14%, depending on the location and indicator (Ioannou et al., 2017; Kjellstrom et al., 2018), with an overall estimate of 5.3% loss in productivity for outdoor work between 2000 and 2015 | medium | 1 | train |
4,481 | AR6_WGII | 806 | 3 | Highly vulnerable occupation groups affected by heat stress include farmers, farmworkers and livestock keepers working outdoors in low-income tropical countries | high | 2 | train |
4,482 | AR6_WGII | 807 | 1 | Low-income urban and rural households who are net food buyers are particularly affected by food price increases, with reduction in consumption of diverse food groups | high | 2 | train |
4,483 | AR6_WGII | 807 | 3 | Indigenous Peoples are often more vulnerable to climate change, due to conditions of poverty, limited resources, discrimination and marginalisation | high | 2 | train |
4,484 | AR6_WGII | 807 | 7 | Climate change have increased food safety risks | high | 2 | train |
4,485 | AR6_WGII | 807 | 9 | Weather variability and extreme events (Seneviratne et al., 2021) have reduced availability and access to diverse foods to sell and to purchase in rural markets, thereby reducing access to affordable, diverse foods for both rural small-scale producers and net consumers, particularly for landlocked and low-income countries | high | 2 | train |
4,486 | AR6_WGII | 807 | 24 | Without adaptive measures, heat stress impacts on agricultural labour will increase with climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,487 | AR6_WGII | 808 | 19 | Adaptation options needed to protect agricultural worker productivity outdoors and reduce occupational heat illnesses and deaths include cooled working environments, improved surveillance systems and education on the need to monitor | high | 2 | train |
4,488 | AR6_WGII | 809 | 3 | While climate change impacts, including drought impacts on food security, are important risk factors for conflict, other key drivers are often more influential, including low socioeconomic development, limited state capacity, weak governance, intergroup inequities and recent histories of conflict | medium | 1 | train |
4,489 | AR6_WGII | 809 | 16 | Some underline their potential in building resilience to changing climatic conditions, in the form of enhanced drought/heat tolerance, pest/disease protection and/or reduced land usage, thus serving to bolster food security and nutrition (Sainger et al., 2015; Muzhinji and Box 5.10: Food Safety Interactions with Food Security and Malnutrition Climate change significantly increases the future food safety risks | high | 2 | train |
4,490 | AR6_WGII | 809 | 21 | Children in low-income countries will be at greater risk of undernutrition from these multiple climate change impacts, including lower food availability, quality and safety and increased risk of diarrheal disease | high | 2 | train |
4,491 | AR6_WGII | 810 | 27 | A more iterative and flexible adaptation approach beyond just genomic improvement to tackle the multiplicity of factors limiting smallholder production is anticipated to increase the likelihood that these promising technologies can enhance food security and nutrition | medium | 1 | train |
4,492 | AR6_WGII | 810 | 29 | To make breeding technologies scale-neutral, the policy structure needs to support and protect smallholders | medium | 1 | train |
4,493 | AR6_WGII | 811 | 10 | UPA cannot fully feed urban dwellers within its boundaries but can make an important contribution to local food security and nutrition | medium | 1 | train |
4,494 | AR6_WGII | 813 | 16 | Land deals raise important social justice questions (Franco et al., 2017; Hunsberger et al., 2017; Borras and Franco, 2018b; Borras et al., 2020; Sekine, 2021) | high | 2 | train |
4,495 | AR6_WGII | 814 | 6 | Land use dimensions Impacts and implications References (2014 to present) ForestryDirect and indirect land use change provoked by LSLAs accelerates deforestation of tropical forests globally | medium | 1 | train |
4,496 | AR6_WGII | 814 | 10 | LSLAs may adversely affect local populations’ access to energy resources | medium | 1 | train |
4,497 | AR6_WGII | 815 | 3 | Agricultural intensification could meet short-term food security and livelihood goals, but reduces biological and landscape diversity, and ecosystem services | high | 2 | train |
4,498 | AR6_WGII | 815 | 10 | Land deals frequently target common land and may increase the vulnerability of customary, traditional, and Indigenous systems common property, while reducing their adaptive capacity | high | 2 | train |
4,499 | AR6_WGII | 816 | 9 | An increasing demand for aquaculture products intensifies competition for feed supplies | medium | 1 | train |
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