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2,300
AR6_WGI
2,041
33
The CMIP5 models show a decrease in annual Arctic snowfall under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
high
2
train
2,301
AR6_WGI
2,041
36
With ongoing warming and polar amplification in the Arctic, the Greenland Ice Sheet SMB will inevitably continue to change
high
2
train
2,302
AR6_WGI
2,042
1
The CMIP5 models reproduce the observed Arctic warming over the past century but overestimate the amplified Arctic warming in the recent decades
medium
1
train
2,303
AR6_WGI
2,042
2
Arctic CORDEX simulations show adequate skill in capturing regional temperature and precipitation patterns and precipitation extremes
high
2
train
2,304
AR6_WGI
2,042
3
SMB models have improved due to increased availability and quality of remotely sensed and in situ observations, and an ensemble mean of SMB model simulations provides the best estimate of the present- day SMB
medium
1
train
2,305
AR6_WGII
20
9
These include increased heat-related human mortality (medium confidence), warm-water coral bleaching and mortality (high confidence), and increased drought-related tree mortality
high
2
train
2,306
AR6_WGII
20
11
Adverse impacts from tropical cyclones, with related losses and damages19, have increased due to sea level rise and the increase in heavy precipitation
medium
1
train
2,307
AR6_WGII
20
12
Impacts in natural and human systems from slow-onset processes29 such as ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been attributed to human induced climate change
high
2
train
2,308
AR6_WGII
20
14
The extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments
high
2
train
2,309
AR6_WGII
20
15
Widespread deterioration of ecosystem structure and function, resilience and natural adaptive capacity, as well as shifts in seasonal timing have occurred due to climate change (high confidence), with adverse socioeconomic consequences
high
2
train
2,310
AR6_WGII
20
16
Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards or, on land, also to higher elevations
very high
3
test
2,311
AR6_WGII
20
17
Hundreds of local losses of species have been driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes (high confidence), as well as mass mortality events on land and in the ocean (very high confidence) and loss of kelp forests
high
2
train
2,312
AR6_WGII
20
18
Some losses are already irreversible, such as the first species extinctions driven by climate change
medium
1
train
2,313
AR6_WGII
20
19
Other impacts are approaching irreversibility such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or the changes in some mountain (medium confidence) and Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw
high
2
train
2,314
AR6_WGII
20
22
Although overall agricultural productivity has increased, climate change has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally (medium confidence), related negative impacts were mainly in mid- and low latitude regions but positive impacts occurred in some high latitude regions
high
2
train
2,315
AR6_WGII
20
23
Ocean warming and ocean acidification have adversely affected food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries in some oceanic regions
high
2
train
2,316
AR6_WGII
20
24
Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity30 and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic
high
2
train
2,317
AR6_WGII
20
25
Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have increased malnutrition in many communities (high confidence), especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households (high confidence), with children, elderly people and pregnant women particularly impacted
high
2
train
2,318
AR6_WGII
20
26
Roughly half of the world’s population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and non-climatic drivers
medium
1
train
2,319
AR6_WGII
22
1
Climate change impacts on health are mediated through natural and human systems, including economic and social conditions and disruptions
high
2
train
2,320
AR6_WGII
22
2
In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity
very high
3
train
2,321
AR6_WGII
22
3
The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased
very high
3
train
2,322
AR6_WGII
22
4
The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors
high
2
train
2,323
AR6_WGII
22
5
Animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are emerging in new areas
high
2
train
2,324
AR6_WGII
22
8
Although diarrheal diseases have decreased globally, higher temperatures, increased rain and flooding have increased the occurrence of diarrheal diseases, including cholera (very high confidence) and other gastrointestinal infections
high
2
train
2,325
AR6_WGII
22
9
In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from weather and climate extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture
high
2
train
2,326
AR6_WGII
22
10
Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated with climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress
high
2
train
2,327
AR6_WGII
22
11
Health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as floods
high
2
train
2,328
AR6_WGII
22
13
Multiple climate and non-climate hazards impact cities, settlements and infrastructure and sometimes coincide, magnifying damage
high
2
train
2,329
AR6_WGII
22
14
Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities (high confidence), where they have also aggravated air pollution events (medium confidence) and limited functioning of key infrastructure
high
2
train
2,330
AR6_WGII
22
15
Observed impacts are concentrated amongst the economically and socially marginalized urban residents, e.g., in informal settlements
high
2
train
2,331
AR6_WGII
22
16
Infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and impacts to well-being
high
2
train
2,332
AR6_WGII
22
18
Some positive economic effects have been identified in regions that have benefited from lower energy demand as well as comparative advantages in agricultural markets and tourism
high
2
train
2,333
AR6_WGII
22
19
Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism (high confidence), and through outdoor labour productivity
high
2
train
2,334
AR6_WGII
22
20
Some extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have reduced economic growth in the short-term
high
2
train
2,335
AR6_WGII
22
21
Non-climatic factors including some patterns of settlement, and siting of infrastructure have contributed to the exposure of more assets to extreme climate hazards increasing the magnitude of the losses
high
2
train
2,336
AR6_WGII
22
22
Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, with adverse effects on gender and social equity
high
2
train
2,337
AR6_WGII
22
24
Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all regions (high confidence), with Small Island States disproportionately affected
high
2
train
2,338
AR6_WGII
22
25
Flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa (high confidence) and Central and South America
high
2
train
2,339
AR6_WGII
22
26
While non-climatic factors are the dominant drivers of existing intrastate violent conflicts, in some assessed regions extreme weather and climate events have had a small, adverse impact on their length, severity or frequency, but the statistical association is weak
medium
1
train
2,340
AR6_WGII
22
27
Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability
medium
1
train
2,341
AR6_WGII
23
3
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change
high
2
train
2,342
AR6_WGII
23
4
A high proportion of species is vulnerable to climate change
high
2
train
2,343
AR6_WGII
23
5
Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent
high
2
train
2,344
AR6_WGII
23
6
Current unsustainable development patterns are increasing exposure of ecosystems and people to climate hazards
high
2
train
2,345
AR6_WGII
23
8
Unsustainable land-use and land cover change, unsustainable use of natural resources, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and their interactions, adversely affect the capacities of ecosystems, societies, communities and individuals to adapt to climate change
high
2
train
2,346
AR6_WGII
23
9
Loss of ecosystems and their services has cascading and long-term impacts on people globally, especially for Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are directly dependent on ecosystems, to meet basic needs
high
2
train
2,347
AR6_WGII
23
11
Globally, and even within protected areas, unsustainable use of natural resources, habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem damage by pollutants increase ecosystem vulnerability to climate change
high
2
train
2,348
AR6_WGII
23
13
In most protected areas, there is insufficient stewardship to contribute to reducing damage from, or increasing resilience to, climate change
high
2
train
2,349
AR6_WGII
23
15
Projected climate change, combined with non-climatic drivers, will cause loss and degradation of much of the world’s forests (high confidence), coral reefs and low-lying coastal wetlands
very high
3
train
2,350
AR6_WGII
23
16
While agricultural development contributes to food security, unsustainable agricultural expansion, driven in part by unbalanced diets32, increases ecosystem and human vulnerability and leads to competition for land and/or water resources
high
2
train
2,351
AR6_WGII
23
18
Global hotspots of high human vulnerability are found particularly in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic
high
2
train
2,352
AR6_WGII
23
19
Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities)
high
2
train
2,353
AR6_WGII
23
20
Between 2010–2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability
high
2
train
2,354
AR6_WGII
23
21
Vulnerability at different spatial levels is exacerbated by inequity and marginalization linked to gender, ethnicity, low income or combinations thereof (high confidence), especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities
high
2
train
2,355
AR6_WGII
23
22
Present development challenges causing high vulnerability are influenced by historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities
high
2
train
2,356
AR6_WGII
24
1
In rural areas vulnerability will be heightened by compounding processes including high emigration, reduced habitability and high reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods
high
2
train
2,357
AR6_WGII
24
2
Key infrastructure systems including sanitation, water, health, transport, communications and energy will be increasingly vulnerable if design standards do not account for changing climate conditions
high
2
train
2,358
AR6_WGII
24
3
Vulnerability will also rapidly rise in low-lying Small Island Developing States and atolls in the context of sea level rise and in some mountain regions, already characterised by high vulnerability due to high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, rising population displacement, the accelerating loss of ecosystem services and limited adaptive capacities
high
2
train
2,359
AR6_WGII
24
4
Future exposure to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socioeconomic development trends including migration, growing inequality and urbanization
high
2
train
2,360
AR6_WGII
24
6
The level of risk will depend on concurrent near- term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation
high
2
train
2,361
AR6_WGII
24
7
Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all
very high
3
train
2,362
AR6_WGII
24
9
Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate to high in forest ecosystems (medium confidence), kelp and seagrass ecosystems (high to very high confidence), and high to very high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) and warm-water coral reefs
very high
3
train
2,363
AR6_WGII
24
10
Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to submergence and loss
medium
1
train
2,364
AR6_WGII
24
11
If trends in urbanisation in exposed areas continue, this will exacerbate the impacts, with more challenges where energy, water and other services are constrained
medium
1
train
2,365
AR6_WGII
24
12
The number of people at risk from climate change and associated loss of biodiversity will progressively increase
medium
1
train
2,366
AR6_WGII
24
13
Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by socioeconomic conditions and governance more than by climate change
medium
1
train
2,367
AR6_WGII
24
15
Regional differences exist, and risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers
high
2
train
2,368
AR6_WGII
24
16
Risks are also high where multiple non-climate drivers persist or where vulnerability is otherwise elevated
high
2
train
2,369
AR6_WGII
24
17
Many of these risks are unavoidable in the near-term, irrespective of emissions scenario
high
2
train
2,370
AR6_WGII
24
18
Several risks can be moderated with adaptation
high
2
train
2,371
AR6_WGII
24
20
Between 1.2°C and 4.5°C global warming level very high risks emerge in all five RFCs compared to just two RFCs in AR5
high
2
train
2,372
AR6_WGII
24
21
Two of these transitions from high to very high risk are associated with near-term warming: risks to unique and threatened systems at a median value of 1.5 [1.2 to 2.0] °C (high confidence) and risks associated with extreme weather events at a median value of 2.0 [1.8 to 2.5] °C
medium
1
train
2,373
AR6_WGII
24
22
Some key risks contributing to the RFCs are projected to lead to widespread, pervasive, and potentially irreversible impacts at global warming levels of 1.5–2°C if exposure and vulnerability are high and adaptation is low
medium
1
train
2,374
AR6_WGII
24
23
Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all
very high
3
train
2,375
AR6_WGII
25
2
For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed
high
2
train
2,376
AR6_WGII
25
3
The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming
very high
3
train
2,377
AR6_WGII
25
6
In ocean and coastal ecosystems, risk of biodiversity loss ranges between moderate and very high by 1.5°C global warming level and is moderate to very high by 2°C but with more ecosystems at high and very high risk
high
2
train
2,378
AR6_WGII
25
7
Very high extinction risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots is projected to at least double from 2% between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels and to increase at least tenfold if warming rises from 1.5°C to 3°C
medium
1
train
2,379
AR6_WGII
25
9
At approximately 2°C global warming, snowmelt water availability for irrigation is projected to decline in some snowmelt dependent river basins by up to 20%, and global glacier mass loss of 18 ± 13% is projected to diminish water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and human settlements in the mid- to long-term, with these changes projected to double with 4°C global warming
medium
1
train
2,380
AR6_WGII
25
10
In Small Islands, groundwater availability is threatened by climate change
high
2
train
2,381
AR6_WGII
25
11
Changes to streamflow magnitude, timing and associated extremes are projected to adversely impact freshwater ecosystems in many watersheds by the mid- to long-term across all assessed scenarios
medium
1
train
2,382
AR6_WGII
25
12
Projected increases in direct flood damages are higher by 1.4 to 2 times at 2°C and 2.5 to 3.9 times at 3°C compared to 1.5°C global warming without adaptation
medium
1
train
2,383
AR6_WGII
25
13
At global warming of 4°C, approximately 10% of the global land area is projected to face increases in both extreme high and low river flows in the same location, with implications for planning for all water use sectors
medium
1
train
2,384
AR6_WGII
25
14
Challenges for water management will be exacerbated in the near, mid and long term, depending on the magnitude, rate and regional details of future climate change and will be particularly challenging for regions with constrained resources for water management
high
2
train
2,385
AR6_WGII
25
16
Increases in frequency, intensity and severity of droughts, floods and heatwaves, and continued sea level rise will increase risks to food security (high confidence) in vulnerable regions from moderate to high between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming level, with no or low levels of adaptation
medium
1
train
2,386
AR6_WGII
25
17
At 2°C or higher global warming level in the mid-term, food security risks due to climate change will be more severe, leading to malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and Small Islands
high
2
train
2,387
AR6_WGII
25
18
Global warming will progressively weaken soil health and ecosystem services such as pollination, increase pressure from pests and diseases, and reduce marine animal biomass, undermining food productivity in many regions on land and in the ocean
medium
1
train
2,388
AR6_WGII
25
19
At 3°C or higher global warming level in the long term, areas exposed to climate-related hazards will expand substantially compared with 2°C or lower global warming level (high confidence), exacerbating regional disparity in food security risks
high
2
train
2,389
AR6_WGII
26
1
Globally, population exposure to heatwaves will continue to increase with additional warming, with strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality without additional adaptation
very high
3
train
2,390
AR6_WGII
26
2
Climate-sensitive food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne disease risks are projected to increase under all levels of warming without additional adaptation
high
2
train
2,391
AR6_WGII
26
3
In particular, dengue risk will increase with longer seasons and a wider geographic distribution in Asia, Europe, Central and South America and sub-Saharan Africa, potentially putting additional billions of people at risk by the end of the century
high
2
train
2,392
AR6_WGII
26
4
Mental health challenges, including anxiety and stress, are expected to increase under further global warming in all assessed regions, particularly for children, adolescents, elderly, and those with underlying health conditions
very high
3
test
2,393
AR6_WGII
26
6
Globally, population change in low-lying cities and settlements will lead to approximately a billion people projected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate hazards in the mid-term under all scenarios, including in Small Islands
high
2
train
2,394
AR6_WGII
26
7
The population potentially exposed to a 100-year coastal flood is projected to increase by about 20% if global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to 2020 levels; this exposed population doubles at a 0.75 m rise in mean sea level and triples at 1.4 m without population change and additional adaptation
medium
1
train
2,395
AR6_WGII
26
8
Sea level rise poses an existential threat for some Small Islands and some low-lying coasts
medium
1
train
2,396
AR6_WGII
26
9
By 2100 the value of global assets within the future 1-in-100 year coastal floodplains is projected to be between US$7.9 and US$12.7 trillion (2011 value) under RCP4.5, rising to between US$8.8 and US$14.2 trillion under RCP8.5
medium
1
train
2,397
AR6_WGII
26
10
Costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure, including building, transportation, and energy will increase with global warming level (medium confidence), the associated functional disruptions are projected to be substantial particularly for cities, settlements and infrastructure located on permafrost in cold regions and on coasts
high
2
train
2,398
AR6_WGII
26
12
The existence of higher estimates than assessed in AR5 indicates that global aggregate economic impacts could be higher than previous estimates (low confidence).36 Significant regional variation in aggregate economic damages from climate change is projected (high confidence) with estimated economic damages per capita for developing countries often higher as a fraction of income
high
2
train
2,399
AR6_WGII
26
13
Economic damages, including both those represented and those not represented in economic markets, are projected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 3°C or higher global warming levels
high
2
train