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2,200 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 29 | Jones et al., 2016a; Hidalgo et al., 2017), with the largest increases in the North American Monsoon region | high | 2 | train |
2,201 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 7 | Positive trends in the duration of the MSD have been found in this region over the past four decades | low | 0 | train |
2,202 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 10 | Particularly relevant for this region are increased model resolution and a better representation of the land surface processes | high | 2 | train |
2,203 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 11 | Regional climate models (RCMs) forced with reanalyses and atmosphere-only global climate models provide simulations with a reasonably good performance over the core North American Monsoon region, mostly in NCA | high | 2 | train |
2,204 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 12 | RCMs also reproduce the seasonal spatial patterns of temperature and the bimodal rainfall characteristics of the NCA, SCA and CAR | high | 2 | train |
2,205 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 13 | RCM simulations in the region do not necessarily improve with the size of the domain, as important features of the regional circulation and key rainfall climate features, such as the CLLJ and MSD, are well represented for a variety of domains of different sizes | high | 2 | train |
2,206 | AR6_WGI | 2,009 | 22 | Global and regional models consistently project warming in the whole region for the end of the century, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for CMIP5 projections with greater warming for continental compared to insular territories, likely reaching values between 2°C and 4°C | high | 2 | train |
2,207 | AR6_WGI | 2,010 | 15 | Atlas.7.1.5 Summary Significant warming trends between 0.2°C and 0.3°C per decade have been observed in the three reference regions of Central America in the last 30 years, with the largest increases in the North American Monsoon region | high | 2 | train |
2,208 | AR6_WGI | 2,010 | 20 | Under moderate future emissions overall negative but non-significant precipitation trends are projected for the 21st century | low | 0 | test |
2,209 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 4 | Atlas.7.2.1.2 Findings From Previous IPCC Assessments According to AR5 WGII Chapter 27 (Magrin et al., 2014), during the last decades of the 20th century, observational studies identified significant trends in precipitation and temperature in South America | high | 2 | train |
2,210 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 7 | The AR5 WGI (Flato et al., 2013) noted that climate simulations from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models were able to represent well the main climatological features, such as seasonal mean and annual cycle | high | 2 | train |
2,211 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 10 | Atlas.7.2.2 Assessment and Synthesis of Observations, Trends and Attribution Studies on climatic trends in South America indicate that mean temperature and extremely warm maximum and minimum temperatures have shown an increasing trend | high | 2 | train |
2,212 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 12 | Regionally, analyses of temperatures point to an increased warming trend | high | 2 | train |
2,213 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 14 | Andean temperatures showed significant warming trends, especially at inland and higher-elevation sites, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites | high | 2 | train |
2,214 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 17 | In general, the spatial patterns of observed trends in temperature are more consistent than for precipitation across the whole of South America | medium | 1 | train |
2,215 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 19 | The most consistent evidence of positive rainfall trend occurs in the southern part of the La Plata basin | high | 2 | train |
2,216 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 23 | Over the subtropical Andes, central Chile shows a robust signal of declining precipitation since 1970 | high | 2 | train |
2,217 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 24 | Observational studies show that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979 | high | 2 | train |
2,218 | AR6_WGI | 2,011 | 27 | In general, these changes are attributed mainly to decadal climate fluctuations | high | 2 | train |
2,219 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 1 | Recent publications based on observational and modelling evidence assessed that anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models explains the overall warming | high | 2 | train |
2,220 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 5 | In summary, analyses of historical temperature time series point strongly to an increased warming trend | high | 2 | train |
2,221 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 6 | Annual rainfall has increased over South-Eastern South America and decreased in most tropical land regions, particularly in central Chile | high | 2 | train |
2,222 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 7 | The number and strength of extreme events, such as extreme temperatures, droughts and floods, have already increased | medium | 1 | train |
2,223 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 11 | Atlas.7.2.3 Assessment of Model Performance Since AR5 the number of publications on climate model performance and their projections in South America has increased, particularly for regional climate modelling studies (Giorgi et al., 2009; Boulanger et al., 2016; Ambrizzi et al., 2019) and the understanding of their strengths and weaknesses | high | 2 | train |
2,224 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 13 | However, significant biases persist mainly at regional scales | high | 2 | train |
2,225 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 16 | Most models show a dry bias over SES (Díaz and Vera, 2017; Barros and Doyle, 2018; Solman and Blázquez, 2019; Díaz et al., 2021) associated with an underestimation of the northern flow that brings water vapour into the region | medium | 1 | train |
2,226 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 17 | The biases in seasonal precipitation, annual precipitation and climate extremes over several regions of South America were reduced, including the Amazon, central South America, Bolivia, eastern Argentina and Uruguay, in the CMIP5 models when compared to those of CMIP3 | medium | 1 | train |
2,227 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 21 | Regional climate model (RCM) simulations over South America can reproduce the main features of temperature and precipitation in terms of both spatial distributions (Solman et al., 2013; Falco et al., 2019) and seasonal cycles over the different climate regimes, including the main SAmerM features | high | 2 | train |
2,228 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 22 | However, RCMs showed systematic biases such as precipitation overestimations and temperature underestimations along the Andes throughout the year | high | 2 | train |
2,229 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 24 | Temperature overestimation and precipitation underestimation over La Plata basin (in SES) are also RCM common biases, with the warm bias amplified for austral summer and the dry bias amplified for the rainy season | high | 2 | train |
2,230 | AR6_WGI | 2,012 | 25 | Despite their relevance, RCM simulations at very high resolution (less than 10 km) are still few in South America | high | 2 | train |
2,231 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 1 | Precipitation simulations based on ESD models are able to reproduce mean precipitation over tropical and subtropical South American regions, especially over maximum precipitation areas in western Colombia, south-eastern Peru, central Bolivia, Chile and the La Plata basin | medium | 1 | train |
2,232 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 3 | Overall, climate modelling has made some progress in the past decade but there is no model that performs well in simulating all aspects of the present climate over South America | high | 2 | train |
2,233 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 6 | Finally, observational reference datasets, such as reanalysis products, used in the calibration and validation of climate models can also be quite uncertain and may explain part of the apparent biases present in climate models | high | 2 | train |
2,234 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 9 | The largest warmings over the South American continent are projected for the Amazon basin (SAM and NSA) and the central Andes range (southern SAM, northern SWS and south-eastern NWS; Figure Atlas.22), especially during the dry and dry-to-wet transition seasons (austral winter and spring) | high | 2 | train |
2,235 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 15 | Under high RCPs, the CMIP5 ensemble projects that all Brazilian regions will experience more rainfall variability in the future, so drier dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales, despite the future changes in mean rainfall being currently uncertain | medium | 1 | test |
2,236 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 23 | Long-term observed precipitation trends show an increase over South-Eastern South America and decreases in most tropical land regions | high | 2 | train |
2,237 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 26 | On the other hand, there is still a lack of high-quality and high- resolution observational data that may explain part of the important biases present in climate models | high | 2 | train |
2,238 | AR6_WGI | 2,013 | 27 | Climate model projections show a general increase in annual mean surface temperature over the coming century for all emissions scenarios (RCPs and SSPs) | high | 2 | train |
2,239 | AR6_WGI | 2,014 | 29 | For a 2°C global warming level, an increase in runoff is projected for north-eastern Europe while decreases are projected in the Mediterranean region, where runoff differences between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming will be most prominent | medium | 1 | train |
2,240 | AR6_WGI | 2,014 | 30 | According to SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) the RCP8.5 projections lead to a loss of more than 80% of the ice mass from small glaciers by the end of century in Central Europe | high | 2 | train |
2,241 | AR6_WGI | 2,015 | 25 | In the European Mediterranean, observed land precipitation trends show pronounced variability within the region, with magnitude and sign of trend in the past century depending on time period and exact study region | medium | 1 | train |
2,242 | AR6_WGI | 2,018 | 24 | Regional warming is virtually certain to extend the observed downward trends in snow accumulation, snow water equivalent and length of the snow cover season in NEU and at low altitudes in mountainous areas in the Alps and Pyrenees | very high | 3 | train |
2,243 | AR6_WGI | 2,019 | 3 | The representation of mean European climate features by GCMs and RCMs is improved compared to previous IPCC assessments | medium | 1 | train |
2,244 | AR6_WGI | 2,019 | 4 | The added value of regional downscaling of GCMs by RCM projections for summer mean temperature, precipitation and shortwave radiation is constrained by the representation of processes that lead to a systematic difference between RCM and driving GCM, such as aerosol forcing | medium | 1 | train |
2,245 | AR6_WGI | 2,019 | 6 | In the European Mediterranean trends in annual mean precipitation contain substantial spatial and temporal variability | medium | 1 | train |
2,246 | AR6_WGI | 2,019 | 10 | At high latitudes and low-altitude mountain areas in Europe strong declines in snow accumulation are virtually certain to occur with further increasing regional temperatures | very high | 3 | train |
2,247 | AR6_WGI | 2,020 | 9 | Atlas.9.1.2 Findings From Previous IPCC Assessments The IPCC AR5 (Bindoff et al., 2013; Hartmann et al., 2013) found that the climate of North America has changed due to anthropogenic causes (high confidence), in particular with primarily increasing annual precipitation and annual temperature | very high | 3 | train |
2,248 | AR6_WGI | 2,020 | 20 | There is a detectable anthropogenic influence | medium | 1 | train |
2,249 | AR6_WGI | 2,020 | 21 | Compared to temperature, trends in annual precipitation over 1961–2015 are generally non-significant though there are consistent positive trends over parts of ENA and CNA (Figure Atlas.11 and Daymet, Interactive Atlas) | high | 2 | train |
2,250 | AR6_WGI | 2,021 | 5 | There is evidence of a recent decline in the overall North American annual maximum snow mass, with a trend for non-alpine regions above 40°N during 1980–2018 estimated from the bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 data | medium | 1 | train |
2,251 | AR6_WGI | 2,021 | 10 | However, reported snow-decline trends are statistically significant only for a fraction of the concerned areas or locations | low | 0 | train |
2,252 | AR6_WGI | 2,023 | 1 | The northern regions and ENA all show steady increases with the global warming levels | very high | 3 | train |
2,253 | AR6_WGI | 2,023 | 10 | In summary, NEN, NWN and most of ENA will very likely experience increased annual mean precipitation, with greater increases at higher levels of warming | very high | 3 | train |
2,254 | AR6_WGI | 2,024 | 1 | Projected changes in summer are highly uncertain throughout other regions apart from the far northern parts of NEN and NWN which will likely experience increases | high | 2 | train |
2,255 | AR6_WGI | 2,024 | 6 | These investigations demonstrate the potential of very-high-resolution simulations to add important dimensions to our understanding of regional climate change, though not necessarily to reduce uncertainty | high | 2 | train |
2,256 | AR6_WGI | 2,024 | 16 | Across near-Arctic latitudes of North America, increases are exceptionally pronounced, greater than 0.5°C per decade | high | 2 | train |
2,257 | AR6_WGI | 2,025 | 17 | There is very high confidence that global mean sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades which, combined with increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall and increases in extreme waves, has exacerbated extreme sea level events and coastal hazards | high | 2 | train |
2,258 | AR6_WGI | 2,025 | 18 | It is virtually certain that during the 21st century, the ocean will transition to unprecedented conditions with further warming and acidification virtually certain, increased upper ocean stratification very likely and continued oxygen decline | medium | 1 | train |
2,259 | AR6_WGI | 2,025 | 21 | Global mean sea level will continue to rise and there is high confidence that the consequent increases in extreme levels will result in local sea levels in most locations that historically occurred once per century occurring at least annually by the end of the century under all RCP scenarios | high | 2 | train |
2,260 | AR6_WGI | 2,026 | 9 | Recent analysis of station data showed spatial variations in the mostly decreasing but non-significant trends in annual and extreme rainfall over the western Pacific from 1961 to 2011 | low | 0 | train |
2,261 | AR6_WGI | 2,026 | 33 | In summary, the ability of climate models to simulate the climate over the region has improved in many key respects with the application of increased model resolution and a better representation of the land surface processes of particular importance in these advances | high | 2 | train |
2,262 | AR6_WGI | 2,026 | 34 | Regional climate models (RCMs) simulate realistically seasonal surface temperature and precipitation patterns including the bimodal rainfall in the precipitation annual cycle although with some timing biases in some regions | high | 2 | train |
2,263 | AR6_WGI | 2,026 | 35 | The important regional circulation and precipitation features, the Caribbean low-level jet and the midsummer drought (MSD), are well represented over a variety of RCM domains covering the region | high | 2 | train |
2,264 | AR6_WGI | 2,028 | 22 | There are fewer significant trends in precipitation in these regions though several locations in the Caribbean have detectable decreasing trends | high | 2 | train |
2,265 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 9 | These modes show no sustained trend since the late 19th century | high | 2 | train |
2,266 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 12 | The SROCC (IPCC, 2019a) finds very high confidence that global mean sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades which has exacerbated extreme sea level events and flooding | high | 2 | train |
2,267 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 13 | It will continue to rise with consequent increases in extreme levels so that the historical one-in-a-century extreme local sea level will become an annual event by the end of the century under all RCP scenarios | high | 2 | train |
2,268 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 18 | Some general observed climate trends include higher magnitude and frequency of temperatures including warm extremes (high confidence) (Section 12.4.7.1, Table 11.13 and Atlas.10.2), declines in high-intensity rainfall events (low to medium confidenc e) (Table 11.14), regional sea level rises with strong storm surges and waves resulting in increased coastal flood intensity (high confidence) (Section 12.4.7.4 and Atlas.10.2), and increased intensity and intensification rates of tropical cyclones at global scale | medium | 1 | train |
2,269 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 19 | No significant long-term trends are observed for annual Caribbean rainfall over the 20th century | low | 0 | train |
2,270 | AR6_WGI | 2,029 | 20 | Over the western Pacific, generally decreasing but non-significant trends are noted in annual total rainfall from 1961 to 2011 | low | 0 | train |
2,271 | AR6_WGI | 2,031 | 8 | Information on future climate changes Small Islands will very likely continue to warm this century, though at a rate less than the global average (Figure Atlas.28), with consequent increased frequency of warm extremes for the Caribbean and western Pacific islands, and heatwave events for the Caribbean | high | 2 | train |
2,272 | AR6_WGI | 2,031 | 9 | Annual and JJA rainfall declines are likely for some Indian and southern Pacific ocean regions with drying over southern French Polynesia (attributed partially to greenhouse gas increases) and farther east clearly evident in CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections | high | 2 | train |
2,273 | AR6_WGI | 2,031 | 12 | This JJA drying has been linked to a future strengthening of the Caribbean low level jet (CLLJ) (Taylor et al., 2013a), a westward expansion and intensification of the NASH, stronger low-level easterlies over the region, a southwardly-placed eastern Pacific ITCZ (Rauscher et al., 2008), and changing dynamics due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations | very high | 3 | train |
2,274 | AR6_WGI | 2,033 | 18 | In the AP, concomitant increase in temperature and foehn winds due to positive SAM caused increased surface melting over the Larsen ice shelves | medium | 1 | train |
2,275 | AR6_WGI | 2,033 | 19 | Strong warming between the mid-1950s and the late 1990s led to the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002, which had been intact for 11,000 years (medium confidence).Snowfall increased over the Antarctic Ice Sheet over AP and WAN, offsetting some of the 20th-century sea level rise | medium | 1 | train |
2,276 | AR6_WGI | 2,033 | 20 | Longer records suggest either a decrease in snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last 1000 years or a statistically negligible change over the last 800 years | low | 0 | train |
2,277 | AR6_WGI | 2,033 | 23 | There is medium agreement but limited evidence of an anthropogenic forcing effect on Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance | low | 0 | train |
2,278 | AR6_WGI | 2,034 | 3 | The century-scale warming trend in the AP is very likely an emerging signal compared to natural variability, while the WAN warming trend falls in the high end of century-scale trends over the last 2000 years | medium | 1 | train |
2,279 | AR6_WGI | 2,034 | 21 | The SMB of EAN increased during the 20th century which mitigated global mean sea level rise by 0.77 ± 0.40 mm per decade during 1901–2000 | medium | 1 | train |
2,280 | AR6_WGI | 2,035 | 4 | More evidence has emerged showing the importance of the Pacific–South American pattern, ENSO and Pacific Ocean convection, and large-scale blocking causing warm-air intrusions and both extreme precipitation and melt events, responsible for large interannual SMB variability | high | 2 | train |
2,281 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 3 | Significant warming trends are observed in other West Antarctic regions and at selected stations in East Antarctica | medium | 1 | train |
2,282 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 4 | Antarctic precipitation and SMB showed a significant positive trend over the 20th century according to the ice cores, while large interannual variability masks any existing trend over the satellite period since the end of the 1970s | medium | 1 | train |
2,283 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 8 | Under all assessed emissions scenarios, both West and East Antarctica are very likely to have higher annual mean surface air temperatures and more precipitation, which will have a dominant influence on determining future changes in the SMB | high | 2 | train |
2,284 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 17 | Arctic surface air temperatures have increased from the mid-1950s, with feedbacks from loss of sea ice and snow cover contributing to the amplified warming (high confidence) (IPCC, 2018c), and have likely increased by more than double the global average over the last two decades | high | 2 | train |
2,285 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 18 | Arctic snow cover in June has declined from 1967 to 2018 | high | 2 | train |
2,286 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 19 | Arctic glaciers are losing mass (very high confidence) and this along with changes in high-mountain snowmelt have caused changes in hydrology, including river runoff, that are projected to continue in the near term | high | 2 | train |
2,287 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 20 | The rate of ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased; during 2006–2015 the loss was 278 ± 11 Gt yr–1 with the rate for 2012–2016 higher than for 2002–2011 and several times higher than during 1992–2001 | high | 2 | train |
2,288 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 21 | The Arctic sea ice area is declining in all months of the year (very high confidence) with the September sea ice minimum very likely having reduced by 12.8 ± 2.3% per decade during the satellite era (1979–2018) to levels unprecedented for at least 1000 years | medium | 1 | train |
2,289 | AR6_WGI | 2,038 | 25 | No further losses are projected under RCP2.6 whereas a further 15–25% reduction in snow cover duration is projected by the end of century under RCP8.5 | high | 2 | train |
2,290 | AR6_WGI | 2,039 | 16 | AMAP reported Arctic precipitation increases of 1.5–2.0% per decade, with the strongest increase in the cold season (October–May) | medium | 1 | train |
2,291 | AR6_WGI | 2,039 | 22 | Rainfall frequency is estimated to have increased over the Arctic by 2.7–5.4% over 2000–2016 (Boisvert et al., 2018) with more frequent rainfall events reported for NEU and ARO (Svalbard; Maturilli et al., 2015; AMAP , 2019), and winter rain totals and frequency have increased in Svalbard since 2000 | medium | 1 | train |
2,292 | AR6_WGI | 2,039 | 28 | The CMIP5 models reproduce the observed Arctic warming over the past century | medium | 1 | train |
2,293 | AR6_WGI | 2,040 | 34 | In the south-west, north-east and north-west, SMB turns negative or close to zero after 2000 and remains above zero in other regions | medium | 1 | test |
2,294 | AR6_WGI | 2,040 | 38 | The Arctic warming may be as much as 4°C in the annual mean and 7°C in late autumn under 2°C global warming, regardless of which scenario is considered | high | 2 | train |
2,295 | AR6_WGI | 2,040 | 43 | In projections from 30 CMIP5 models, winter warming over ARO varies regionally from 3°C to 5°C by mid-century and 5°C to 9°C by late-century under RCP4.5 | high | 2 | train |
2,296 | AR6_WGI | 2,041 | 5 | End-of-the-century warming is approximately twice as large under RCP8.5 demonstrating the impact of the lower emissions under RCP4.5 | high | 2 | train |
2,297 | AR6_WGI | 2,041 | 22 | The interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer | medium | 1 | train |
2,298 | AR6_WGI | 2,041 | 26 | Consistent with the generally higher warming in CMIP6, compared to CMIP5, the projected precipitation increase is also higher | high | 2 | train |
2,299 | AR6_WGI | 2,041 | 30 | The pattern and amplitude of precipitation changes agree in CORDEX simulations with their driving CMIP5 models | high | 2 | train |
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