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2,100 | AR6_WGI | 1,876 | 25 | For 1.5°C–2°C about 50–60% | low | 0 | train |
2,101 | AR6_WGI | 1,876 | 26 | At 2°C–3°C about 40–50% | low | 0 | train |
2,102 | AR6_WGI | 1,876 | 27 | At sustained 3°C–5°C 25–40% | low | 0 | train |
2,103 | AR6_WGI | 1,877 | 3 | Ice Sheets RFC5Greenland Ice Sheet mass-loss rate increased substantially since the turn of the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
2,104 | AR6_WGI | 1,877 | 4 | The Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost mass between 1992 and 2017 (very high confidence), with an increasing mass-loss rate over this period (medium confidence).At sustained warming levels between 1.5°C and 2°C, the ice sheets will continue to lose mass (high confidence); on time scales of multiple centuries, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will partially be lost (medium confidence); there is limited evidence that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will be lost almost completely and irreversibly over multiple millennia; at sustained warming levels between 2°C and 3°C, there is limited evidence that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will be lost almost completely and irreversibly over multiple millennia, and high confidence in increasing risk of complete loss and increasing rate of mass loss for higher warming; At sustained warming levels between 3°C and 5°C, near- complete loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet and complete loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will occur irreversibly over multiple millennia (medium confidence); substantial parts or all of Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica will be lost over multiple millennia | low | 0 | train |
2,105 | AR6_WGI | 1,877 | 13 | Observed decline since the mid-2000s cannot be distinguished from internal variability | high | 2 | train |
2,106 | AR6_WGI | 1,877 | 18 | Arctic Sea Ice RFC5 Abrupt change already observed.Reversible within years to decades; no tipping point or threshold beyond which loss of ice becomes irreversible | high | 2 | train |
2,107 | AR6_WGI | 1,877 | 21 | Global Monsoon RFC5Has likely increased over the last 40 years | medium | 1 | train |
2,108 | AR6_WGI | 1,879 | 11 | User needs and decision-making contexts are very diverse and there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution to climate services | very high | 3 | train |
2,109 | AR6_WGI | 1,879 | 17 | Climate services require user engagement and can take various forms in which climate information and data are delivered or communicated to the users | very high | 3 | train |
2,110 | AR6_WGI | 1,880 | 8 | Three specific examples that elaborate in more detail on specific practices and products related to those general categories are provided in Cross-Chapter Box 12.2.12.6.3 Challenges Climate services set new scientific challenges to physical climate research | high | 2 | train |
2,111 | AR6_WGI | 1,881 | 5 | Climate services require a sustained engagement between scientists, service providers and users that is often hindered by limited resources for the co-design and co-production process | high | 2 | train |
2,112 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 8 | Observed Trends and Projections in Regional Climate Most land areas have warmed faster than the global average | high | 2 | train |
2,113 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 12 | Significant negative trends have been observed in the Horn of Africa and south-west of the state of Western Australia (high confidence), parts of the Russian Far East, some parts of the Mediterranean and of the Caribbean, south-east and north-east Brazil, and southern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
2,114 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 13 | In many other land areas there are no significant trends in annual precipitation over the period 1960–2015 though increases in average precipitation intensity have been observed in the Sahel and South East Asia | medium | 1 | train |
2,115 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 16 | Across each of the continents, higher warming is likely to occur in northern Africa, the central interior of southern and Western Africa; in North Asia; in Central Australia; in Amazonia; in Northern Europe and northern North America | high | 2 | test |
2,116 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 23 | Changes in monsoons are likely to result in increased precipitation in eastern and northern China and in South Asia in summer | high | 2 | train |
2,117 | AR6_WGI | 1,947 | 24 | Precipitation intensity will increase in many areas, including in some where annual mean reductions are likely (e.g., southern Africa) | high | 2 | train |
2,118 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 4 | Snow cover has declined over Australia as has annual maximum snow mass over North America | medium | 1 | train |
2,119 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 8 | Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance showed a significant positive trend over the 20th century, while strong interannual variability masks any existing trend over recent decades1 | medium | 1 | train |
2,120 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 9 | Significant warming trends are observed in other West Antarctic regions and at selected stations in East Antarctica since the 1950s | medium | 1 | train |
2,121 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 20 | An equivalent approximate description using specific years would be ‘since the 1980s’.Model Evaluation, Technical Infrastructure and the Interactive Atlas The regional performance of CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) has improved overall compared to CMIP5 in simulating mean temperature and precipitation, though large errors still exist in some regions | high | 2 | train |
2,122 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 26 | In particular, regional climate models (RCMs) with polar-optimized physics are important for estimating the regional and local surface mass balance and are improved compared to reanalyses and GCMs when evaluated with observations | high | 2 | train |
2,123 | AR6_WGI | 1,948 | 27 | There is still a lack of high-quality and high-resolution observational data to assess observational uncertainty in climate studies, and this compromises the ability to evaluate models | high | 2 | train |
2,124 | AR6_WGI | 1,984 | 5 | Atlas.4.1.2 Findings From Previous IPCC Assessments The most recent IPCC reports, AR5 and SR1.5 (Christensen et al., 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018), state that over most parts of Africa, minimum temperatures have warmed more rapidly than maximum temperatures during the last 50 to 100 years | medium | 1 | train |
2,125 | AR6_WGI | 1,984 | 6 | In the same period, minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by more than 0.5°C relative to 1850–1900 | high | 2 | train |
2,126 | AR6_WGI | 1,984 | 12 | According to SROCC, eastern Africa like other regions with smaller glaciers is projected to lose more than 80% of its glaciers by 2100 under RCP8.5 | medium | 1 | train |
2,127 | AR6_WGI | 1,984 | 18 | The consequence of increased temperature and evapotranspiration, and decreased precipitation amount, in interaction with climate variability and human activities, have contributed to desertification in dryland areas in sub-Saharan Africa (medium confidence) as reported in SRCCL (Mirzabaev et al., 2019).Atlas.4.2 Assessment and Synthesis of Observations, Trends and Attribution Figure Atlas.11 shows observed trends in annual mean surface temperature and indicates it has been rising rapidly over Africa from 1961 to 2015 and with significant increases in all regions of 0.1°C–0.2°C per decade and higher over some northern, eastern and south-western regions | high | 2 | train |
2,128 | AR6_WGI | 1,985 | 1 | Southern African rainfall shows a significant downtrend of –0.013 mm day–1 year –1 in recent decades and –0.003 mm day–1 year –1 for longer periods during 1900–2010 | low | 0 | train |
2,129 | AR6_WGI | 1,985 | 6 | Enhanced rainfall intensity since the mid-1980s over the Sahel (Maidment et al., 2015; Sanogo et al., 2015) is associated with increased greenhouse gases suggesting an anthropogenic influence | medium | 1 | train |
2,130 | AR6_WGI | 1,985 | 8 | Moreover, later onset and earlier cessation of eastern Africa rainfall is associated with a delayed and then faster movement of the tropical rainband northwards during the boreal spring and northward shift of the Saharan heat low (Wainwright et al., 2019), driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions and changing aerosol forcings | medium | 1 | train |
2,131 | AR6_WGI | 1,985 | 10 | However, decadal natural variability from SST variations over the Pacific Ocean has also been associated with the drying trend of East Africa (Wang et al., 2014; Hoell et al., 2017) with an anthropogenic-forced rapid warming of Indian Ocean SSTs | medium | 1 | train |
2,132 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 14 | The rate of surface temperature increase has generally been more rapid in Africa than the global average and by at least 0.1°C–0.2°C during 1961–2015 | high | 2 | test |
2,133 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 15 | Minimum temperatures have increased more rapidly than maximum temperatures over inland southern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
2,134 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 16 | Since 1970, mean temperature over East Africa has shown an increasing trend but showed a decreasing trend in the previous 40 years (medium confidence).The Horn of Africa has experienced significantly decreased rainfall during the long rains season from March to May (high confidence) and drying trends in this and other parts of Africa are attributable to oceanic influences | high | 2 | train |
2,135 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 19 | The enhanced rainfall intensity over the Sahel in the last two decades is associated with increased greenhouse gases indicating an anthropogenic influence | medium | 1 | train |
2,136 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 20 | Relative to the late 20th century, annual mean temperature over Africa is projected to rise faster than the global average | very high | 3 | train |
2,137 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 21 | The central interiors of southern and northern Africa are likely to warm faster than equatorial and tropical regions | high | 2 | train |
2,138 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 22 | There are contrasting signals in the projections of rainfall over some parts of Africa until the end of the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
2,139 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 24 | However, northern Africa and the south-western parts of South Africa are likely to have a reduction in precipitation under higher warming levels | high | 2 | train |
2,140 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 25 | Over Western Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel sub-region (medium confidence) and increase in the central Sahel sub-region (low confidence) and along the Guinea coast sub-region | medium | 1 | train |
2,141 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 26 | Rainfall amounts are projected to increase over Eastern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
2,142 | AR6_WGI | 1,987 | 27 | Southern Africa is projected to have a reduction in annual mean rainfall but increases in rainfall intensity by 2100 | medium | 1 | train |
2,143 | AR6_WGI | 1,989 | 33 | Precipitation trends over East Asia show considerable regional differences | medium | 1 | train |
2,144 | AR6_WGI | 1,991 | 20 | Atlas.5.1.5 Summary In East Asia annual mean temperature has been increasing since the 1950s | high | 2 | train |
2,145 | AR6_WGI | 1,991 | 22 | Trends of annual precipitation show considerable regional differences with areas of both increases and decreases (medium confidence), and with increases over north-west China and South Korea | high | 2 | train |
2,146 | AR6_WGI | 1,991 | 23 | Agricultural intensification through oasis expansion in Xinjiang region has increased summer precipitation in the Tian Shan mountains | high | 2 | train |
2,147 | AR6_WGI | 1,992 | 10 | The SR1.5 noted that future, higher levels of warming lead to greater impacts in key systems such as the Siberian ecosystems, identified as one of the threatened systems (‘Reason for Concern 1 – RFC1’; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) with impacts at 2°C expected to be greater than those at 1.5°C | medium | 1 | train |
2,148 | AR6_WGI | 1,992 | 15 | In addition, significant warming in the last decade has halved the cooling trend in southern WSB from –0.6°C per decade during 1976–2012 to –0.3°C per decade during 1976–2018 | high | 2 | train |
2,149 | AR6_WGI | 1,993 | 9 | The latter reanalysis also underestimates summer precipitation and shows large wet biases over north-east Asia during spring and underestimates mean seasonal temperature over north-east Asia in spring (MAM), autumn (SON), and winter (DJF), but overestimates it in summer (JJA) compared with the CRU dataset | medium | 1 | train |
2,150 | AR6_WGI | 1,993 | 16 | For CMIP5, models with higher resolution do not always perform better than those with lower resolutions | medium | 1 | train |
2,151 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 6 | The highest warming has been found in spring in ESB and RFE, strengthening from south to north with linear trends of 0.8°C–1.2°C per decade over the 1976–2014 period | high | 2 | train |
2,152 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 7 | A temperature decrease was identified just in winter in the southern part of WSB and ESB as a result of natural variability, but halved from –0.6°C per decade in 1976–2012 to –0.3°C per decade for the longer 1976–2018 period due to recent warmer winters | high | 2 | train |
2,153 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 8 | Over North Asia annual precipitation increases with estimated trends of 5–15 mm per decade in the 1976–2014 period have been recorded with an exception over the Kamchatka and the Chukchi peninsulas, where decreases of up to –20 mm per decade in the same period have been found | medium | 1 | train |
2,154 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 10 | Most of the CMIP5 and some CMIP6 GCMs overestimate the annual mean air temperature and precipitation over the North Asia region | medium | 1 | train |
2,155 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 11 | GCMs generally represent the observed decadal temperature trend (medium confidence) and biases primarily come from the winter (DJF) season | high | 2 | train |
2,156 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 13 | Sparsity of observational data particularly in the northern part of ESB and the whole of the RFE results in low confidence in the assessments of model performance in North Asia.Surface air temperature and precipitation in North Asia are projected to increase further | high | 2 | train |
2,157 | AR6_WGI | 1,994 | 24 | CMIP5 models projected for the 21st century a significant increase in temperature over South Asia (high confidence from robust evidence) and in projections of increased summer monsoon precipitation | medium | 1 | train |
2,158 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 2 | The Indian summer monsoon circulation was found to have weakened, but this was compensated by increased local atmospheric moisture content leading to more rainfall | medium | 1 | train |
2,159 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 6 | The annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures has increased over almost all Pakistan with a faster increasing trend in the south | high | 2 | train |
2,160 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 9 | Concurrently, the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over India, while the frequency of moderate rain events has decreased since 1950 | high | 2 | train |
2,161 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 12 | A global modelling study with high resolution over South Asia (Sabin et al., 2013) indicated that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the Equatorial Indian Ocean was crucial to simulate the observed Indian summer monsoon weakening in recent decades | medium | 1 | train |
2,162 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 13 | A dipole-like structure in summer monsoon rainfall trends is observed over the northern Indo-Pakistan area with significant increases over Pakistan and decreases over central north India resulting from strengthening (weakening) of vertically integrated meridional moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) | low | 0 | train |
2,163 | AR6_WGI | 1,995 | 23 | Observations and model simulations showed that the increasing temperature of frozen grounds is leading to thawing and reduced depth of permafrost, with further significant reductions projected under future global warming scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
2,164 | AR6_WGI | 1,996 | 21 | With continued global warming and anticipated reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the future, CMIP5 models project an increase in the mean and variability of summer monsoon precipitation over India by the end of the 21st century, together with substantial increases in daily precipitation extremes | medium | 1 | train |
2,165 | AR6_WGI | 1,997 | 2 | Atlas.5.3.5 Summary Mean, minimum and maximum daily temperatures in South Asia are increasing and winters are getting warmer faster than summers | high | 2 | train |
2,166 | AR6_WGI | 1,997 | 10 | Over the same time periods CMIP6 models project an increase in annual precipitation in the range 14–36% under SSP5-8.5 and 0.4–16% under SSP1-2.6 | medium | 1 | train |
2,167 | AR6_WGI | 1,998 | 2 | Over South East Asia, there has been a significant increase in the amount of precipitation and its extremes with La Niña episodes in the past decades, especially during the winter monsoon period | high | 2 | train |
2,168 | AR6_WGI | 1,998 | 3 | Figure Atlas.11 shows trends in mean temperature and precipitation during 1961–2015 for two global datasets, indicating a significant overall warming over South East Asia (high confidence), with higher rates of warming in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the southern areas of mainland South East Asia | low | 0 | train |
2,169 | AR6_WGI | 1,998 | 4 | Annual mean precipitation trends (Atlas.1.4.1 and the Interactive Atlas, which includes the regional dataset Aphrodite) over the region are mostly not significant except for increases over parts of Malaysia, Vietnam and the southern Philippines | medium | 1 | train |
2,170 | AR6_WGI | 1,998 | 7 | Atlas.5.4.3 Assessment of Model Performance Performance in simulating rainfall over South East Asia varies among CMIP5 GCMs | high | 2 | train |
2,171 | AR6_WGI | 1,998 | 26 | Projections of future rainfall changes are highly variable among sub-regions of South East Asia and among the models | high | 2 | train |
2,172 | AR6_WGI | 1,999 | 7 | Atlas.5.4.5 Summary It is virtually certain that annual mean temperature has been increasing in South East Asia in the past decades while changes in annual mean precipitation are less spatially coherent though with some increasing trends over parts of Malaysia, Vietnam and the southern Philippines | medium | 1 | train |
2,173 | AR6_WGI | 1,999 | 10 | Projected changes in rainfall over South East Asia vary, depending on model, sub-region and season (high confidence), with consistent projections of increases in annual mean rainfall from CMIP5 and CMIP6 over most land areas (medium confidence) and decreases in summer rainfall from CORDEX projections over much of Indonesia | medium | 1 | train |
2,174 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 6 | WCA includes high mountains with enhanced warming above 500 m where, regardless of the emissions scenario, decreases in snow cover are projected due to increased winter snowmelt and more precipitation falling as rain | high | 2 | train |
2,175 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 10 | This increases the uncertainty in both temperature and precipitation trends, particularly for elevated areas | high | 2 | train |
2,176 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 13 | A strong increase in annual surface air temperature of 0.27°C–0.47°C per decade has been found over WCA between 1960 and 2013 | very high | 3 | train |
2,177 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 17 | The plateau of Iran has experienced significant increases in the average monthly values of daily maximum and minimum temperatures with spatially varying rates of 0.1°C–0.3°C up to 0.3°C–0.4°C per decade and greater spatial variation in minimum temperatures | high | 2 | train |
2,178 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 24 | Over the elevated part of eastern WCA precipitation increases in the range of 1.3–4.8 mm per decade during 1960–2013 were observed | very high | 3 | train |
2,179 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 27 | A decreasing trend of precipitation is reported for ARP with the mean value of –6.3 mm per decade (range of –30 mm–16 mm) for the period 1978–2019 | low | 0 | train |
2,180 | AR6_WGI | 2,000 | 28 | The same decreasing trend in precipitation totals and an increasing trend in the number of consecutive dry days are found for most of the Iranian Plateau | medium | 1 | train |
2,181 | AR6_WGI | 2,001 | 5 | RCM simulations using the CORDEX-MENA domain reproduce the main features of the mean surface climatology over ARP with moderate biases | high | 2 | train |
2,182 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 7 | Annual precipitation change over ARP since 1970 is estimated at –6.3 mm per decade (and in the range of –30 to 16 mm per decade) and over WCA is generally not significant except over the elevated part of eastern WCA where increases between 1.3 mm and 4.8 mm per decade during 1960–2013 have been observed | very high | 3 | train |
2,183 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 8 | In mountainous areas, the scarcity and decline of the number of observation sites since the end of the former Soviet Union in 1991 increase the uncertainty of the long-term temperature and precipitation estimates | high | 2 | train |
2,184 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 9 | Mean temperature biases in RCMs are within ±3°C in South West Asia, and annual precipitation biases are positive in almost all parts of the region, except over the ARP where they are negative in the wet season (November to April) and over WCA in winter and spring (from December to May) | medium | 1 | train |
2,185 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 12 | Further warming over South West Asia is projected in the 21st century to be greater than the global average, with rates varying from 0.25°C to 0.8°C per decade depending on the season and scenario, and the maximum rates found in the northern part of the region in summer | high | 2 | train |
2,186 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 14 | CMIP6 projected changes in annual precipitation totals are in the range of –3 to 29% (SSP1-2.6) and 12–107% (SSP5-8.5) in ARP | medium | 1 | train |
2,187 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 15 | Strong spatio-temporal differences with overall precipitation decreases are projected in the central and northern parts of WCA in summer (JJA) with increases in winter (DJF) | medium | 1 | train |
2,188 | AR6_WGI | 2,002 | 24 | For example, while annual rainfall has been significantly increasing in north-western Australia since the 1950s (very high confidence), it has been decreasing in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand over 1950–2004 | very high | 3 | train |
2,189 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 1 | Likewise, however, there is a projected increase in the frequency of drought in southern Australia (medium confidence) and in many parts of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
2,190 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 3 | The AR5 reported mean sea levels have also increased in Australia and New Zealand at average rates of relative sea level rise of 1.4 ± 0.6 mm yr –1 from 1900 to 2011, and 1.7 ± 0.1 mm yr –1 from 1900 to 2009, respectively | very high | 3 | train |
2,191 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 4 | The assessment found that the volume of ice in New Zealand has declined by 36–61% from the mid- to late 1800s to the late 1900s, while late-season significant snow depth has also declined in three out of four Snowy Mountain sites in Australia between 1957 and 2002 | high | 2 | test |
2,192 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 6 | On the other hand, the volume of winter snow and the number of days with low-elevation snow cover in New Zealand are projected to decrease in the future (very high confidence), while both snow depth and area are projected to decline in Australia | very high | 3 | train |
2,193 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 8 | It also reports on the vulnerability of some Australian communities and ecosystems to sea level rise, increases in the intensity and duration of marine heatwaves driven by human influence | high | 2 | train |
2,194 | AR6_WGI | 2,003 | 15 | For a longer-term perspective based on high-quality regional datasets, Figure Atlas.20 shows Australasia has warmed over the last century | very high | 3 | train |
2,195 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 1 | Snow cover is likely to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia and New Zealand | high | 2 | train |
2,196 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 20 | According to AR5 (Christensen et al., 2013), significant positive trends of temperature have been observed in Central America | high | 2 | test |
2,197 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 21 | In addition, changes in climate variability and in extreme events have severely affected the region | medium | 1 | train |
2,198 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 23 | El Niño and La Niña teleconnections are projected to move eastwards in the future (medium confidence), while changes in their effects on other regions, including Central America and the Caribbean is uncertain | medium | 1 | train |
2,199 | AR6_WGI | 2,007 | 26 | Precipitation change is projected to vary between +10% and –25% | medium | 1 | train |
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