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And that was, of course, the very common story.
|
E esta foi, claro, uma história comum.
|
en-pt-br
|
Because when you take out that last piece of gold -- and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush -- the entire American river region, within two years -- every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies who used more sophisticated mining technologies started to take gold out of there.
|
משום שכשאתה כורה את פיסת הזהב האחרונה-- והם עשו זאת במהירות מרשימה. אני מתכוון,שאם אתם מסתכלים על הבהלה לזהב של שנת 1849 כל אזור הנהר האמריקני, תוך שנתיים-- כל אבן היתה הפוכה. ואחרי זה, רק חברות גדולות שהשתמשו בטכנולוגיות כרייה מתוחכמות יותר החלו להוציא את הזהב לשם.
|
en-he
|
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic and that analogy is the electric industry.
|
Maintenant, il y a une meilleur analogie qui vous permet d'être beaucoup plus optimiste et cette analogie c'est l'industrie électrique
|
en-fr
|
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
|
인터넷과 전기 산업 사이에는 비슷한 점들이 아주 많습니다.
|
en-ko
|
With the electric industry you actually have to -- one of them is that they're both sort of thin, horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
|
Avec l'industrie électrique, en fait, vous devez - une d'elles est qu'elles sont toutes deux une sorte de couche d'activité étroite et horizontale, transversale à de nombreuses industries.
|
en-fr
|
It's not a specific thing.
|
זה לא דבר ספציפי.
|
en-he
|
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
|
Elektrizität ist aber sehr, sehr breit, man muss sie also quasi eingrenzen.
|
en-de
|
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
|
Het is een geweldige methode om kracht over te brengen.
|
en-nl
|
It's an incredible means of coordinating, in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
|
Este un mijloc incredibil de coordonare, într-un mod foarte fin granulat, fluxurile de informaţii.
|
en-ro
|
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
|
Az elektromosságnak rengeteg érdekes tulajdonsága van.
|
en-hu
|
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on is sort of the golden age of appliances.
|
我所关注的电力革命 只是那些“黄金时代”中的器械装置
|
en-zh-cn
|
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
|
De 'killer app' die de wereld klaarstoomde voor apparaten was de gloeilamp.
|
en-nl
|
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
|
Az izzólámpa kábelezte be a világot.
|
en-hu
|
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
|
Дори не мислели за уреди, когато окабелили света.
|
en-bg
|
They were really thinking about -- they weren't putting electricity into the home; they were putting lighting into the home.
|
הם באמת חשבו על-- הם לא התקינו חשמל בתוך הבית. הם התקינו תאורה בתוך הבית.
|
en-he
|
And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
|
Но это действительно… привело электричество. Этот процесс был очень длительным.
|
en-ru
|
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
|
Mas demorou. Foi um grande investimento. Como era de se esperar.
|
en-pt-br
|
All the streets had to be torn up.
|
كل الطرق يجب أن يتم حفرُها.
|
en-ar
|
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
|
Ce travail était en cours jusque dans le bas Manhattan là où ils construisirent quelques une des premières stations électriques.
|
en-fr
|
And they're tearing up all the streets.
|
A oni su razrovali sve ulice.
|
en-hr
|
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric, which became General Electric, paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.
|
شركة إديسون للكهرباء، التي صارت إديسون العامة للكهرباء، والتي صارت - بدورها - الكهرباء العامة، قامت بتحمّل نفقات هذا الحفر الذي تمّ للطرق.
|
en-ar
|
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
|
Và đó không hẳn là điều tương đồng nhất với mạng internet.
|
en-vi
|
Because, remember, the Web got to stand on top of all this heavy infrastructure that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
|
ご存じのようにネットは 長距離電話回線用の ネットワークを基盤に構築されました
|
en-ja
|
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure -- I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994, when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
|
אז כל הכבילה וכל התשתית הכבדה-- אני חוזר עכשיו, לסקור את חלק מהפיצוץ של הרשת בשנת 1994 כאשר היא גדלה ב -2300 אחוז לשנה.
|
en-he
|
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994 when people weren't really investing in the Web?
|
Ինչպես կարող էր 2,300 տոկոս աճ լինել 1994թ., երբ մարդիկ իրականում ներդրում չէին անում Ցանցում:
|
en-hy
|
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
|
なぜなら広範囲にわたるインフラが既に構築されていたからです
|
en-ja
|
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure, and then home appliances started coming into being.
|
Այսպպիսով թափանցիկ լամպը ձևավորեց ծանր ենթակառուցվածքը, և ապա կենցաղային սարքավորումները սկսեցին առաջ գալ:
|
en-hy
|
And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan -- this was the 1890 electric fan.
|
Et c'était énorme. Le premier appareil fut le ventilateur électrique -- c'était le ventilateur électrique 1890.
|
en-fr
|
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted -- it depends how you want to measure it -- but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.
|
E os eletrodomésticos, a era de ouro realmente durou -- depende de como você medir -- mas é cerca de 40 a 60 anos. Durou muito tempo.
|
en-pt-br
|
It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.
|
1890년 경에 시작했고요. 선풍기는 아주 성공적이었습니다.
|
en-ko
|
The electric iron, also very big.
|
Elektrická žehlička, podobně úspěšná.
|
en-cs
|
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
|
Nhân tiện, đây là khởi đầu của vụ kiện sợi a-mi-ăng.
|
en-vi
|
(Laughter) There's asbestos under that handle there.
|
(nevetés) Ott van az azbeszt a fogantyú alatt.
|
en-hu
|
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum, from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
|
זהו שואב האבק הראשון, סקינר ואקיום משנת 1905 מחברת הובר. וזה שוקל 46 קילו נדרשו שני אנשים להפעילו בעלות של רבע מכונית.
|
en-he
|
So it wasn't a big seller.
|
Então não vendeu muito.
|
en-pt-br
|
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product -- (Laughter) the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
|
Era realmente un producto para innovadores (Risas) la aspiradora Skinner de 1905.
|
en-es
|
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
|
Բայց երեք տարի անց, այն կշռում էր 40 փութ:
|
en-hy
|
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
|
Şimdi, bunların herbiri çok başarılı olmadı.
|
en-tr
|
(Laughter) This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
|
(śmiech) To elektryczne żelazko do krawatów, które nigdy się nie przyjęło.
|
en-pl
|
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
|
Les gens, j'imagine, ont décidé qu'ils ne froisseraient pas leurs cravates.
|
en-fr
|
These never really caught on either: the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.
|
Это устройство также не имело успех: электрический обогреватель и сушилка. Так и не стало популярным на рынке.
|
en-ru
|
This came in, like, six different colors.
|
Не се продавало кой знае колко. Имало го в шест различни цвята.
|
en-bg
|
(Laughter) I don't know why. But I thought, you know, sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention; maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
|
(Ծիծաղ) Չգիտեմ ինչու է այդպես, բայց, իմ կարծիքով, գիտեք, երբեմն հայտնագործության համար հարմար պահ չէ; միգուցե ժամանակն է սա նորովի ներկայացնել:
|
en-hy
|
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
|
Así que pensé en que podríamos crear un anuncio del Super Bowl para esto.
|
en-es
|
We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really -- (Laughter) I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
|
Wir brauchen den richtigen Partner. Und ich habe wirklich geglaubt -- (Lachen) ich habe geglaubt, dass es wirklich funktionieren würde, es noch einmal zu versuchen.
|
en-de
|
Now, the toaster was huge because they used to make toast on open fires, and it took a lot of time and attention.
|
עכשיו המצנם היה ענק משום שהם נהגו להכין טוסטים על אש גלויה וזה דרש הרבה זמן ותשומת לב
|
en-he
|
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
|
Želim istaknuti jednu stvar. To je -- vi znate o čemu se radi.
|
en-hr
|
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
|
Non avevano ancora inventato la lampada.
|
en-it
|
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
|
Deci, aceasta a fost - amintiţi-vă, nu aveau casele cablate pentru energie electrică.
|
en-ro
|
They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.
|
Окабелявали ги за осветление. Затова уредите... уредите се включвали.
|
en-bg
|
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
|
Յուրաքանչյուր սենյակ ուներ վերևում վարդակ:
|
en-hy
|
And you'd plug it in there.
|
I onda biste to tamo uključili.
|
en-hr
|
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World, you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
|
Nếu bạn từng thấy "Vòng quay Tiến bộ" ở Công viên Disney, bạn sẽ thấy điều đó. Các dây điện sẽ đều cắm vào đó.
|
en-vi
|
All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
|
Wszystkie urządzenia tam podłączano.Trzeba było wykręcić żarówkę jeśli chciało się podłączyć inne urządzenie.
|
en-pl
|
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
|
Следующее великое изобретение — стиральная машина.
|
en-ru
|
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
|
Это устройство вызывало зависть и страстное желание обладать им.
|
en-ru
|
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
|
모든 사람들이 집에 세탁기를 하나 들이고 싶어했으니까요.
|
en-ko
|
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
|
Do lado esquerdo, a água com sabão.
|
en-pt-br
|
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
|
そして回転するモーターがあり
|
en-ja
|
And it would clean your clothes.
|
Ve elbiselerinizi temizlerdi.
|
en-tr
|
This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here, put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer.
|
וזהו מנגנון הסחיטה.אז היתם מוציאים את הבגדים מכאן, שמים אותם כאן, ואז היתם מעבירים את הבגדים דרך המכבש החשמלי הזה.
|
en-he
|
And this was a big deal.
|
Ve bu büyük bir olaydı.
|
en-tr
|
You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
|
Эта стиральная машина хранилась на крыльце, она была несколько грязной и неудобной.
|
en-ru
|
And you'd run a long cord into the house where you could screw it into your light socket.
|
Y la conectarías con un largo cable dentro de la casa enchufándola a tu portalámparas.
|
en-es
|
(Laughter) And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation, because they hadn't invented the off switch.
|
(Râsete) Şi asta e de fapt un fel de un punct important în prezentarea mea, pentru că ei nu inventaseră întrerupătorul.
|
en-ro
|
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances -- because it didn't make any sense.
|
Ello vendría mucho después, el interruptor para los aparatos, porque antes no tenía sentido.
|
en-es
|
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
|
Víte, nechtěli jste, aby spotřebiče zabírali místo Vašim žárovkám,
|
en-cs
|
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
|
Wenn man also fertig damit war, hat man es wieder herausgezogen.
|
en-de
|
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
|
「停止」ボタンは必要なかったのです
|
en-ja
|
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either, so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
|
Comme je l'ai dit avant, on n'avait pas encore inventé la prise électrique, et la machine à laver était un appareil particulièrement dangereux.
|
en-fr
|
And there are -- when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
|
製品のひとつでした 髪の毛や衣服が挟まっても コードをすぐに抜いて機械を止められなかったので
|
en-ja
|
And they couldn't yank the cord out because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
|
И невозможно было просто выдернуть шнур питания из розетки, потому что он был ввинчен внутри дома в патрон для лампочки.
|
en-ru
|
(Laughter) And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
|
(ضحك) ولم يكن هناك مفتاح إيقاف، لذا لم يكن جيداً جداً.
|
en-ar
|
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
|
아마 지금쯤 여러분들은 '우리 조상들은 왜 저렇게 멍청해서 전구 소켓에 가전제품 코드를 꽂아서 썼을까?
|
en-ko
|
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors, I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
|
Dar, ştiţi, înainte de a merge prea departe cu condamnarea lor, M-am gândit să vă arăt: aceasta este sala mea de conferinţe.
|
en-ro
|
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
|
Uma gambiarra total, se querem saber.
|
en-pt-br
|
First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket -- (Laughter) and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
|
Zaprvé - je to nainstalováno vzhůru nohama. Tahle zásuvka... (Smích) Kabely z ní neustále vypadávají, takže jsem je přilepil izolepou.
|
en-cs
|
(Laughter) This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.
|
(Lachen) Das sollte -- fangen wir nicht damit an. Aber das ist nicht einmal das Schlimmste.
|
en-de
|
This is what it looks like under my desk.
|
Bu benim masamın altının hali.
|
en-tr
|
I took this picture just two days ago.
|
Vyfotil jsem to jen před dvěma dny.
|
en-cs
|
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
|
所以你可以看到1908年到現在沒進步多少。
|
en-zh-tw
|
(Laughter) It's a total, total mess.
|
(Ծիծաղ) Սա լրիվ խառնաշփոթ է:
|
en-hy
|
And, you know, we think it's getting better, but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
|
我觉得将来会更好一些 但,你有没有试着自己安装802.11
|
en-zh-cn
|
(Laughter) I challenge you to try. It's very hard.
|
(צחוק) אני מזמין אתכם לנסות.
|
en-he
|
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science -- this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter) And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
|
我認識幾個專攻電腦的博士生 -- 這個過程搞得他們真的欲哭無淚。 而且這還是假設你已經家裡有DSL了。
|
en-zh-tw
|
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
|
Versuchen sie einmal, DSL in ihrem Haus installiert zu bekommen.
|
en-de
|
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
|
Gli ingegneri che lo fanno ogni giorno, non riescono a farlo.
|
en-it
|
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
|
Նրանք, որպես կանոն, ստիված են լինում երեք անգամ այցելել ձեզ:
|
en-hy
|
And one friend of mine was telling me a story: not only did they get there and have to wait, but then the engineers, when they finally did get there, for the third time, they had to call somebody.
|
Ein Freund von mir erzählte mir diese Geschichte: die kamen nicht nur und mussten warten, aber dann mussten die Fachmänner, als sie schließlich dort waren, zum dritten Mal, mussten sie jemanden anrufen.
|
en-de
|
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone because then they had to wait on hold for an hour to talk to somebody to give them an access code after they got there.
|
E ficaram muito felizes do meu amigo ter viva-voz porque tiveram que ficar na linha por uma hora esperando um código de acesso depois que tudo estava pronto.
|
en-pt-br
|
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
|
所以我們自己也是很雜牌拼湊的啦。
|
en-zh-tw
|
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
|
A propósito, DSL es un parche.
|
en-es
|
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed for the purpose it's being put to -- you know it's the whole thing -- we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.
|
제 말은, 이렇게 두 줄로 꼬여진 구리선 자체가 원래는 지금 사용되는 용도를 위해서 만들어졌던게 아니에요. 여러분들은 지금 이것이 전부라고 생각하시겠지만, 우리는 사실 아주 원시적인 단계에 있어요.
|
en-ko
|
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
|
لأنه - كما تعلمون - التكيُّف، لو أنكم فكرتم فيه مقارَناً بهَجْمَة الذهب، فستصبحون مكتئبين في الحال لأن آخر سبيكة ذهبية ستكون قد انتهت.
|
en-ar
|
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
|
하지만, 좋은 점은, 혁신에는 마지막 덩어리가 없다는 것입니다.
|
en-ko
|
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
|
Her yeni şey iki yeni soru ve iki yeni fırsat yaratıyor.
|
en-tr
|
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are -- this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge -- and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web -- but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff -- we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
|
如果你相信那個,你就會相信我們今天的處境是 -- 我認為: 我相信我們今天的雜亂 -- 我還沒談到網路上的使用者界面呢 然而因為這些雜亂跟可怕的東西, 網際網路就像是在1908年洗衣機的階段
|
en-zh-tw
|
That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it, but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
|
Ето къде сме. Косата ни не се захваща в него, но това е нивото ни на примитивност.
|
en-bg
|
We're in 1908.
|
We zitten in 1908.
|
en-nl
|
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996: "All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
|
Und wenn sie das glauben, dann dürfte ihnen das nichts ausmachen. Das ist von 1996: "All die negativen Aspekte sorgen dafür, dass die Online Erfahrung nicht der Rede wert ist."
|
en-de
|
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