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7,300
AR6_WGIII
48
10
Reforestation, improved forest management, soil carbon sequestration, peatland restoration and blue carbon management are examples of methods that can enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions, employment and local livelihoods, depending on context
high
2
train
7,301
AR6_WGIII
48
11
In contrast, afforestation or production of biomass crops for BECCS or biochar, when poorly implemented, can have adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, food and water security, local livelihoods and on the rights of Indigenous Peoples, especially if implemented at large scales and where land tenure is insecure
high
2
train
7,302
AR6_WGIII
48
12
Ocean fertilisation, if implemented, could lead to nutrient redistribution, restructuring of ecosystems, enhanced oxygen consumption and acidification in deeper waters
medium
1
train
7,303
AR6_WGIII
49
2
The global economic benefit of limiting warming to 2°C is reported to exceed the cost of mitigation in most of the assessed literature
medium
1
train
7,304
AR6_WGIII
49
12
The corresponding reductions in average annual global GDP growth over 2020–2050, in percentage points, are as follows: 0.09–0.14 (C1), 0.05–0.09 (C2), 0.03–0.07 (C4), 0.02–0.04 (C5).66 There are large variations in the modelled effects of mitigation on GDP across regions, depending notably on economic structure, regional emissions reductions, policy design and level of international cooperation67
high
2
train
7,305
AR6_WGIII
49
13
Country-level studies also show large variations in the effect of mitigation on GDP depending notably on the level of mitigation and on the way it is achieved
high
2
train
7,306
AR6_WGIII
49
14
Macroeconomic implications of mitigation co-benefits and trade-offs are not quantified comprehensively across the above scenarios and depend strongly on mitigation strategies
high
2
train
7,307
AR6_WGIII
49
16
Models that incorporate the economic damages from climate change find that the global cost of limiting warming to 2°C over the 21st century is lower than the global economic benefits of reducing warming, unless: (i) climate damages are towards the low end of the range; or, (ii) future damages are discounted at high rates (medium confidence).68 Modelled pathways with a peak in global emissions between now and 2025 at the latest, compared to modelled pathways with a later peak in global emissions, entail more rapid near-term transitions and higher up-front investments, but bring long-term gains for the economy, as well as earlier benefits of avoided climate change impacts
high
2
train
7,308
AR6_WGIII
52
14
Electrification combined with low-GHG energy, and shifts to public transport can enhance health, employment, and can elicit energy security and deliver equity
high
2
train
7,309
AR6_WGIII
52
16
However, some industrial options could impose high costs
medium
1
train
7,310
AR6_WGIII
54
12
Limited economic, social and institutional resources often result in high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, especially in developing countries
medium
1
train
7,311
AR6_WGIII
54
14
However, land and aquatic ecosystems can be adversely affected by some mitigation actions, depending on their implementation
medium
1
train
7,312
AR6_WGIII
54
15
Coordinated cross-sectoral policies and planning can maximise synergies and avoid or reduce trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation
high
2
train
7,313
AR6_WGIII
54
17
These options can also reduce flood risks, pressure on urban sewer systems, urban heat island effects, and can deliver health benefits from reduced air pollution
high
2
train
7,314
AR6_WGIII
54
19
For example, increasing urban density to reduce travel demand, could imply high vulnerability to heat waves and flooding
high
2
train
7,315
AR6_WGIII
54
28
Absence or limited resources in social and institutional systems can lead to poorly coordinated responses, thus reducing the potential for maximising mitigation and adaptation benefits, and increasing risk
high
2
train
7,316
AR6_WGIII
55
12
Applying just transition principles and implementing them through collective and participatory decision-making processes is an effective way of integrating equity principles into policies at all scales, in different ways depending on national circumstances
medium
1
train
7,317
AR6_WGIII
55
14
A multitude of actors, networks, and movements are engaged
high
2
train
7,318
AR6_WGIII
55
16
The consideration of ethics and equity can help address the uneven distribution of adverse impacts associated with 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming, in all societies
high
2
train
7,319
AR6_WGIII
55
17
Consideration of climate justice can help to facilitate shifting development pathways towards sustainability, including through equitable sharing of benefits and burdens of mitigation, increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change, especially for vulnerable countries and communities, and equitably supporting those in need
high
2
train
7,320
AR6_WGIII
56
13
This enables deployment in many regions
high
2
train
7,321
AR6_WGIII
56
14
While many mitigation options have environmental co-benefits, including improved air quality and reducing toxic waste, many also have adverse environmental impacts, such as reduced biodiversity, when applied at very large scale, for example very large scale bioenergy or large scale use of battery storage, that would have to be managed
medium
1
train
7,322
AR6_WGIII
56
15
Almost all mitigation options face institutional barriers that need to be addressed to enable their application at scale
medium
1
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7,323
AR6_WGIII
56
22
Strengthened and coordinated near-term actions in cost-effective modelled global pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower, reduce the overall risks to the feasibility of the system transitions, compared to modelled pathways with relatively delayed or uncoordinated action.73
high
2
train
7,324
AR6_WGIII
57
1
Policies that shift development pathways towards sustainability can broaden the portfolio of available mitigation responses, and enable the pursuit of synergies with development objectives
medium
1
train
7,325
AR6_WGIII
57
2
Actions can be taken now to shift development pathways and accelerate mitigation and transitions across systems
high
2
train
7,326
AR6_WGIII
57
4
Choices made by policymakers, citizens, the private sector and other stakeholders influence societies’ development pathways
high
2
train
7,327
AR6_WGIII
57
5
Actions that steer, for example, energy and land systems transitions, economy-wide structural change, and behaviour change, can shift development pathways towards sustainability74
medium
1
train
7,328
AR6_WGIII
57
7
It can also facilitate the combination of mitigation and other development goals
high
2
train
7,329
AR6_WGIII
57
8
For example, measures promoting walkable urban areas combined with electrification and renewable energy can create health co-benefits from cleaner air and benefits from enhanced mobility
high
2
train
7,330
AR6_WGIII
57
9
Coordinated housing policies that broaden relocation options can make mitigation measures in transport more effective
medium
1
train
7,331
AR6_WGIII
57
13
In some situations, such as with innovation in technology at an early stage of development and some changes in behaviour towards low emissions, because the enabling conditions may take time to be established, action in the near term can yield accelerated mitigation in the mid-term
medium
1
train
7,332
AR6_WGIII
57
14
In other situations, the enabling conditions can be put in place and yield results in a relatively short time frame, for example the provision of energy related information, advice and feedback to promote energy saving behaviour
high
2
train
7,333
AR6_WGIII
57
16
Climate governance is most effective when it integrates across multiple policy domains, helps realise synergies and minimise trade-offs, and connects national and sub-national policymaking levels
high
2
train
7,334
AR6_WGIII
57
17
Effective and equitable climate governance builds on engagement with civil society actors, political actors, businesses, youth, labour, media, Indigenous Peoples and local communities
medium
1
train
7,335
AR6_WGIII
57
19
These functions can be promoted by climate-relevant laws, which are growing in number, or climate strategies, among others, based on national and sub-national context
medium
1
train
7,336
AR6_WGIII
57
20
Framework laws set an overarching legal basis, either operating through a target and implementation approach, or a sectoral mainstreaming approach, or both, depending on national circumstance
medium
1
train
7,337
AR6_WGIII
57
21
Direct national and sub-national laws that explicitly target mitigation and indirect laws that impact emissions through mitigation-related policy domains have both been shown to be relevant to mitigation outcomes
medium
1
train
7,338
AR6_WGIII
58
2
Complementary sub-national institutions tailor mitigation actions to local context and enable experimentation but can be limited by inequities and resource and capacity constraints
high
2
train
7,339
AR6_WGIII
58
3
Effective governance requires adequate institutional capacity at all levels
high
2
train
7,340
AR6_WGIII
58
10
These instruments could support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation if scaled up and applied more widely
high
2
train
7,341
AR6_WGIII
58
11
Policy packages that enable innovation and build capacity are better able to support a shift towards equitable low-emission futures than are individual policies
high
2
train
7,342
AR6_WGIII
58
12
Economy-wide packages, consistent with national circumstances, can meet short-term economic goals while reducing emissions and shifting development pathways towards sustainability
medium
1
train
7,343
AR6_WGIII
58
14
These instruments, and broad-based approaches including relevant economic instruments,75 are complementary
high
2
train
7,344
AR6_WGIII
58
15
Regulatory instruments that are designed to be implemented with flexibility mechanisms can reduce costs
medium
1
train
7,345
AR6_WGIII
58
16
Scaling up and enhancing the use of regulatory instruments, consistent with national circumstances, could improve mitigation outcomes in sectoral applications, including but not limited to renewable energy, land use and zoning, building codes, vehicle and energy efficiency, fuel standards, and low-emissions industrial processes and materials
high
2
train
7,346
AR6_WGIII
58
18
Where implemented, carbon pricing instruments have incentivised low-cost emissions reduction measures, but have been less effective, on their own and at prevailing prices during the assessment period, in promoting the higher-cost measures necessary for further reductions
medium
1
train
7,347
AR6_WGIII
58
19
Equity and distributional impacts of such carbon pricing instruments can be addressed by using revenue from carbon taxes or emissions trading to support low-income households, among other approaches
high
2
train
7,348
AR6_WGIII
58
20
Practical experience has informed instrument design and helped to improve predictability, environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, distributional goals and social acceptance
high
2
train
7,349
AR6_WGIII
58
21
Removing fossil fuel subsidies would reduce emissions, improve public revenue and macroeconomic performance, and yield other environmental and sustainable development benefits; subsidy removal may have adverse distributional impacts especially on the most economically vulnerable groups which, in some cases can be mitigated by measures such as redistributing revenue saved, all of which depend on national circumstances (high confidence); fossil fuel subsidy removal is projected by various studies to reduce global CO2 emissions by 1–4%, and GHG emissions by up to 10% by 2030, varying across regions
medium
1
train
7,350
AR6_WGIII
59
4
They can meet short-term economic goals while reducing emissions and shifting development pathways towards sustainability
medium
1
train
7,351
AR6_WGIII
59
5
Infrastructure investments can be designed to promote low-emissions futures that meet development needs
medium
1
train
7,352
AR6_WGIII
59
7
There is no consistent evidence that current emission trading systems have led to significant emissions leakage, which can be attributed to design features aimed at minimising competitiveness effects, among other reasons
medium
1
train
7,353
AR6_WGIII
59
10
Scaling up mitigation financial flows can be supported by clear policy choices and signals from governments and the international community
high
2
train
7,354
AR6_WGIII
59
11
Accelerated international financial cooperation is a critical enabler of low-GHG and just transitions, and can address inequities in access to finance and the costs of, and vulnerability to, the impacts of climate change
high
2
train
7,355
AR6_WGIII
59
13
Mitigation investment gaps are wide for all sectors, and widest for the AFOLU sector in relative terms and for developing countries76
high
2
train
7,356
AR6_WGIII
59
14
Financing and investment requirements for adaptation, reduction of losses and damages, general infrastructure, regulatory environment and capacity building, and climate-responsive social protection further exacerbate the magnitude of the challenges for developing countries to attract financing
high
2
train
7,357
AR6_WGIII
59
16
Barriers to the deployment of commercial finance from within the financial sector as well as macroeconomic considerations include: inadequate assessment of climate-related risks and investment opportunities; regional mismatch between available capital and investment needs; home bias factors; country indebtedness levels; economic vulnerability; and limited institutional capacities
high
2
train
7,358
AR6_WGIII
59
19
Scaled-up public grants for mitigation and adaptation funding for vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, would be cost-effective and have high social returns in terms of access to basic energy
high
2
train
7,359
AR6_WGIII
60
1
A coordinated effort to make the post-pandemic recovery sustainable and increased flows of financing over the next decade can accelerate climate action, including in developing regions and countries facing high debt costs, debt distress and macroeconomic uncertainty
high
2
train
7,360
AR6_WGIII
60
11
Challenges in and opportunities to enhance innovation cooperation exist, including in the implementation of elements of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement as per the literature assessed, such as in relation to technology development and transfer, and finance
high
2
train
7,361
AR6_WGIII
60
12
International cooperation on innovation works best when tailored to specific institutional and capability contexts, when it benefits local value chains, when partners collaborate equitably and on voluntary and mutually agreed terms, when all relevant voices are heard, and when capacity building is an integral part of the effort
medium
1
train
7,362
AR6_WGIII
60
13
Support to strengthen technological innovation systems and innovation capabilities, including through financial support in developing countries would enhance engagement in and improve international cooperation on innovation
high
2
train
7,363
AR6_WGIII
60
16
Transnational networks of city governments are leading to enhanced ambition and policy development and a growing exchange of experience and best practices
medium
1
train
7,364
AR6_WGIII
60
18
Agreements addressing ozone depletion and transboundary air pollution are contributing to mitigation, and in other areas, such as atmospheric emissions of mercury, may contribute to mitigation
high
2
train
7,365
AR6_WGIII
60
19
Trade rules have the potential to stimulate international adoption of mitigation technologies and policies, but may also limit countries’ ability to adopt trade-related climate policies
medium
1
train
7,366
AR6_WGIII
60
20
Current sectoral levels of ambition vary, with emission reduction aspirations in international aviation and shipping lower than in many other sectors
medium
1
train
7,367
AR6_WGIII
70
23
Original INDCs and NDCs refer to those submitted to the UNFCCC in 2015 and 2016.GHG emissions continued to rise to 2019, although the growth of global GHG emissions has slowed over the past decade
high
2
train
7,368
AR6_WGIII
71
1
Since 2010, GHG emissions have continued to grow reaching 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2-eq in 2019,4 but the average annual growth in the last decade (1.3%, 2010–2019) was lower than in the previous decade (2.1%, 2000–2009)
high
2
train
7,369
AR6_WGIII
71
2
Average annual GHG emissions were 56 GtCO 2-eq yr –1 for 2010–2019 (the highest decadal average on record) growing by about 9.1 GtCO 2-eq yr –1 from the previous decade (2000–2009)
high
2
train
7,370
AR6_WGIII
71
8
The average annual emission levels of the last decade (2010–2019) were higher than in any previous decade for each group of greenhouse gases
high
2
train
7,371
AR6_WGIII
72
1
F-gases excluded from GHG emissions inventories such as chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are about the same size as those included
high
2
train
7,372
AR6_WGIII
75
10
Furthermore, for mitigation pathways that limit global warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower, using GWP100 to inform cost-effective abatement choices between gases would achieve such long-term temperature goals at close to least global cost within a few percent
high
2
train
7,373
AR6_WGIII
75
15
IFrom a mitigation perspective, this makes these metrics well-suited in principle to estimate the effect on the remaining carbon budget from more, or less, ambitious SLCF mitigation over multiple decades compared to a given reference scenario
high
2
train
7,374
AR6_WGIII
77
16
The lifestyle consumption emissions of the middle income and poorest citizens in emerging economies are between five and 50 times below their counterparts in high-income countries
medium
1
train
7,375
AR6_WGIII
77
17
Increasing inequality within a country can exacerbate dilemmas of 11 Bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models.redistribution and social cohesion, and affect the willingness of the rich and poor to accept policies to protect the environment, and to accept and afford lifestyle changes that favour mitigation
medium
1
train
7,376
AR6_WGIII
77
21
Average annual GHG emissions growth during 2010–2019 slowed compared to the previous decade in energy supply (from 2.3% to 1.0%) and industry (from 3.4% to 1.4%, direct emissions only), but remained roughly constant at about 2% yr –1 in the transport sector
high
2
train
7,377
AR6_WGIII
77
22
Emission growth in AFOLU is more uncertain due to the high share of CO 2-LULUCF emissions
medium
1
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7,378
AR6_WGIII
77
24
Accounting for this discrepancy would assist in assessing collective progress in a global stocktake
high
2
train
7,379
AR6_WGIII
77
29
The accounting method used will affect the assessment of collective progress in a global stocktake
medium
1
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7,380
AR6_WGIII
77
34
This slowing of growth is attributable to further improvements in energy efficiency and reductions in the carbon intensity of energy supply driven by fuel switching from coal to gas, reduced expansion of coal capacity, particularly in Eastern Asia, and the increased use of renewables
medium
1
train
7,381
AR6_WGIII
78
12
Important drivers include technology transfer and cooperation, international policy and financial support, and harnessing synergies among technologies within a sustainable energy system perspective
medium
1
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7,382
AR6_WGIII
78
13
A fast global low-carbon energy transition enabled by finance to facilitate low-carbon technology adoption in developing and particularly in least developed countries can facilitate achieving climate stabilisation targets
high
2
train
7,383
AR6_WGIII
79
1
The rapid deployment and unit cost decrease of modular technologies like solar, wind, and batteries have occurred much faster than anticipated by experts and modelled in previous mitigation scenarios, as shown in Figure TS.7
high
2
train
7,384
AR6_WGIII
79
4
Emerging evidence since AR5 indicates that small-scale technologies (e.g., solar, batteries) tend to improve faster and be adopted more quickly than large-scale technologies (nuclear, CCS)
medium
1
train
7,385
AR6_WGIII
80
2
This compares to overall cumulative net CO 2 emissions until reaching net zero CO 2 of 510 (330–710) GtCO 2 in pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and 890 (640–1160) GtCO 2 in pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%)
high
2
train
7,386
AR6_WGIII
80
3
While most future CO 2 emissions from existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure are situated in the power sector, most remaining fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) and below are from non-electric energy – most importantly from the industry and transportation sectors
high
2
train
7,387
AR6_WGIII
80
4
Decommissioning and reduced utilisation of existing fossil fuel installations in the power sector as well as cancellation of new installations are required to align future CO 2 emissions from the power sector with projections in these pathways
high
2
train
7,388
AR6_WGIII
81
2
While there is considerable literature on country-level mitigation pathways, including but not limited to NDCs, the country distribution of this literature is very unequal
high
2
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7,389
AR6_WGIII
82
1
NDCs with unconditional and conditional elements14 lead to 53 (50–57) and 50 (47–55) GtCO 2-eq, respectively
medium
1
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AR6_WGIII
82
9
This closes the emission gaps by about one third to 2°C and about 20% to 1.5°C compared to the original NDCs submitted in 2015/16
medium
1
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7,391
AR6_WGIII
82
10
An implementation gap also exists between the projected emissions with ‘current policies’ and the projected emissions resulting from the implementation of the unconditional and conditional elements of NDCs; this is estimated to be around 4 and 7 GtCO 2-eq in 2030, respectively
medium
1
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7,392
AR6_WGIII
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21
The literature does not adequately include demand-side options and systems analysis, and captures the impact from non-CO 2 GHGs
medium
1
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7,393
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25
The way countries develop determines their capacity to accelerate mitigation and achieve other sustainable development objectives simultaneously
medium
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7,394
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86
2
Policies can shift development pathways. There are examples of policies implemented in the pursuit of overall societal development objectives, such as job creation, macroeconomic stability, economic growth, and public health and welfare. In some countries, such policies are framed as part of a Just Transition, however, they can have major influence on mitigative capacity, and hence can be seen as tools to broaden mitigation options
medium
1
test
7,395
AR6_WGIII
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14
Detailed design of mitigation policies is critical for distributional impacts and avoiding lock-in
high
2
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7,396
AR6_WGIII
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17
To this aim, mobilising a range of policies is preferable to single policy instruments
high
2
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7,397
AR6_WGIII
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22
Accelerated mitigation and shifting development pathways necessitates both redirecting existing financial flows from high- to low-emissions technologies and systems, and providing additional resources to overcome current financial barriers
high
2
train
7,398
AR6_WGIII
86
24
At the national level, public finance for actions promoting sustainable development helps broaden the scope of mitigation
medium
1
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7,399
AR6_WGIII
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25
Changes in behaviour and lifestyles are important to move beyond mitigation as incremental change, and when supporting shifts to more sustainable development pathways will broaden the scope of mitigation
medium
1
train