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2,900
AR6_WGII
79
14
Deforestation, fires and urbanisation have increased the exposure of Indigenous Peoples to respiratory problems, air pollution and diseases
high
2
train
2,901
AR6_WGII
79
17
Regions characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation and wealth and gender inequalities, and governance challenges are among the most vulnerable regions and are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America
high
2
train
2,902
AR6_WGII
79
19
Solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches attempt to offset warming and ameliorate some climate risks but introduce a range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood
high
2
train
2,903
AR6_WGII
79
22
Transitions from high to very high risk emerge in all five RFCs, compared to just two RFCs in AR5
high
2
train
2,904
AR6_WGII
80
1
Remaining below 2°C warming (but above 1.5°C) would imply that risk for RFC3 through RFC5 would be transitioning to high, and risk for RFC1 and RFC2 would be transitioning to very high
high
2
train
2,905
AR6_WGII
80
2
By 2.5°C warming, RFC1 will be at very high risk
high
2
train
2,906
AR6_WGII
80
5
Once such risks materialise, the impacts would persist even if global temperatures subsequently declined to levels associated with lower levels of risk in an ‘overshooting’ scenario, for example where temperatures increase over ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial’ for multi-decadal time spans before decreasing
high
2
train
2,907
AR6_WGII
80
8
Even if the Paris temperature goal is still reached by 2100, this ‘overshoot’ entails severe risks and irreversible impacts on many natural and human systems (e.g., glacier melt, loss of coral reefs, loss of human life due to heat)
high
2
train
2,908
AR6_WGII
80
12
The exact timing and magnitude of climate–biosphere feedbacks and potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by large uncertainty, but studies of feedbacks indicate increased ecosystem carbon losses can cause large future temperature increases
medium
1
train
2,909
AR6_WGII
80
16
Even the lowest estimates of species extinctions (9% lost) are 1000 times the natural background rates
medium
1
train
2,910
AR6_WGII
80
19
SRM effects on climate hazards are highly dependent on deployment scenarios, and substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal time scales
high
2
train
2,911
AR6_WGII
80
22
SRM would not stop CO 2 from increasing in the atmosphere or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions
high
2
train
2,912
AR6_WGII
80
26
Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots.Coral bleaching, mass tree and animal mortalities, species extinction; decline in sea-ice dependent species, range shifts in multiple ecosystemsIn transition from moderate to high1.1°C
very high
3
train
2,913
AR6_WGII
82
7
Adaptation progress and gaps TS.D.1 Increasing adaptation is being observed in natural and human systems (very high confidence), yet the majority of climate risk management and adaptation currently being planned and implemented are incremental
high
2
train
2,914
AR6_WGII
82
8
There are gaps between current adaptation and the adaptation needed to avoid the increase of climate impacts that can be observed across sectors and regions, especially under medium and high warming levels
high
2
test
2,915
AR6_WGII
82
10
Growing adaptation knowledge in public and private sectors, increasing numbers of policy and legal frameworks and dedicated spending on adaptation are all clear indications that the availability of response options has expanded
high
2
train
2,916
AR6_WGII
82
11
However, observed adaptation in human systems across all sectors and regions is dominated by small incremental, reactive changes to usual practices often after extreme weather events, while evidence of transformative adaptation in human systems is limited
high
2
train
2,917
AR6_WGII
82
12
Droughts, pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding are the most common hazards for which adaptation is being implemented, and many of these have physical, affordability and social limits
high
2
train
2,918
AR6_WGII
82
15
These measures can increase the resilience, productivity and sustainability of both natural and food systems under climate change
high
2
train
2,919
AR6_WGII
82
17
Investment in climate service provision has benefited the agricultural sector in many regions, with limited uptake of climate service information into decision- making frameworks
medium
1
train
2,920
AR6_WGII
82
19
There are large gaps in risk management and risk transfer in low- income contexts, and even larger gaps in conflict-affected contexts
high
2
train
2,921
AR6_WGII
82
20
Adaptive capacity is highly uneven across and within regions
high
2
train
2,922
AR6_WGII
82
21
Current adaptation efforts are not expected to meet existing goals
high
2
train
2,923
AR6_WGII
82
23
Many plans focus on climate risk reduction, missing opportunities to advance co- benefits of climate mitigation and sustainable development and risking compounding inequality and reduced well-being
medium
1
train
2,924
AR6_WGII
82
24
The largest adaptation gaps exist in projects that manage complex risks, for example in the food–energy–water–health nexus or the inter- relationships of air quality and climate risk
high
2
train
2,925
AR6_WGII
82
25
Most innovation in adaptation has occurred through advances in social and ecological infrastructures, including disaster risk management, social safety nets and green/blue infrastructure
medium
1
train
2,926
AR6_WGII
82
26
However, most financial investment continues to be directed narrowly at large-scale hard engineering projects after climate events have caused harm
medium
1
train
2,927
AR6_WGII
95
2
Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources
high
2
train
2,928
AR6_WGII
95
3
Governance capacity, financial support and the legacy of past urban infrastructure investment constrain how cities and settlements are able to adapt
high
2
train
2,929
AR6_WGII
95
4
Critical urban capacity gaps include limited ability to identify social vulnerability and community strengths, the absence of integrated planning to protect communities, the lack of access to innovative funding arrangements and a limited capability to manage finance and commercial insurance
medium
1
train
2,930
AR6_WGII
95
6
For example, Africa faces severe climate data constraints and inequities in research funding and leadership that reduce adaptive capacity
very high
3
test
2,931
AR6_WGII
95
8
Annual finance flows targeting adaptation for Africa, for example, are billions of US dollars less than the lowest adaptation cost estimates for near-term climate change
high
2
train
2,932
AR6_WGII
95
11
Tracked private-sector finance for climate change action has grown substantially since 2015, but the proportion directed towards adaptation has remained small
high
2
train
2,933
AR6_WGII
95
12
Globally, private-sector financing of adaptation has been limited, especially in developing countries
high
2
train
2,934
AR6_WGII
95
16
The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context
high
2
train
2,935
AR6_WGII
95
18
To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistent and consistent action across scales of government and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital are key
high
2
train
2,936
AR6_WGII
95
20
In some natural systems, hard limits have been reached (high confidence) and more will be reached beyond 1.5°C
medium
1
train
2,937
AR6_WGII
95
21
Surpassing such hard, evolutionary limits causes local species extinctions and displacements if suitable habitats exist
high
2
train
2,938
AR6_WGII
95
22
Otherwise, species’ existence is at very high risk
high
2
train
2,939
AR6_WGII
95
23
In human, managed and natural systems, soft limits are already being experienced
high
2
train
2,940
AR6_WGII
95
24
Financial constraints are key determinants of adaptation limits in human and managed systems, particularly in low-income settings (high confidence), while in natural systems key determinants for limits are inherent traits of the species or ecosystem
very high
3
train
2,941
AR6_WGII
95
28
Hard limits will increasingly emerge at higher levels of warming
high
2
train
2,942
AR6_WGII
95
30
Evidence and signals of the thresholds at which constraints result in limits is still sparse and, in human systems, are expected to remain contested even with increasing knowledge
high
2
train
2,943
AR6_WGII
95
32
Beginning at below 1.5°C, autonomous and evolutionary adaptation responses by more terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems will face hard limits, resulting in species extinctions, loss of ecosystem integrity and a resulting loss of livelihoods
high
2
train
2,944
AR6_WGII
95
35
Soft limits are currently being experienced in particular by individuals, households, cities and settlements along the coast and by small-scale farmers
medium
1
train
2,945
AR6_WGII
96
2
Hard limits beginning at 1.5°C are also projected for coastal communities reliant on nature-based coastal protection
medium
1
train
2,946
AR6_WGII
96
3
Adaptation to address the risks of heat stress, heat mortality and reduced capacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard limits across regions that become significantly more severe at 1.5°C and are particularly relevant for regions with warm climates
high
2
train
2,947
AR6_WGII
96
4
Beginning at 3°C, hard limits are projected for water management measures, leading to decreased water quality and availability, negative impacts on health and well-being, economic losses in water and energy-dependent sectors and potential migration of communities
medium
1
train
2,948
AR6_WGII
96
5
Soft and hard limits for agricultural production are related to water availability and the uptake and effectiveness of climate resilient crops, which are constrained by socioeconomic and political challenges
medium
1
train
2,949
AR6_WGII
96
6
In terms of settlements, limits to adaptation are often most pronounced in smaller and rapidly growing towns and cities, including those without dedicated local government
medium
1
train
2,950
AR6_WGII
96
7
At the same time, legacy infrastructure in large and mega cities, designed without taking climate change risk into account, constrains innovation, leading to stranded assets and with increasing numbers of people unable to avoid harm, including heat stress and flooding, without transformative adaptation
medium
1
train
2,951
AR6_WGII
96
11
Information, awareness and technological constraints are also high in multiple regions
high
2
train
2,952
AR6_WGII
96
12
For example, awareness of anthropogenic climate change ranges between 23% and 66% of people across 33 African countries, with low climate literacy limiting potential for transformative adaptation
medium
1
train
2,953
AR6_WGII
96
15
The ability of actors to overcome socioeconomic constraints determines whether additional adaptation can be implemented and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits
medium
1
train
2,954
AR6_WGII
96
16
Above 1.5°C of warming, limits to adaptation are reported for human and natural systems, including coral reefs
high
2
train
2,955
AR6_WGII
96
18
Decreasing maladaptation requires attention to justice and a shift in enabling conditions towards those that enable timely adjustments for avoiding or minimising damage and for seizing opportunities
high
2
train
2,956
AR6_WGII
96
20
Policy decisions that ignore the risks of adverse effects can be maladaptive by worsening the impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate change
high
2
train
2,957
AR6_WGII
96
21
Examples include in coastal systems (e.g., sea walls that enable further exposure through intensification of developments in low-lying coastal areas), urban areas (e.g., inflexible infrastructure in cities and settlements that cannot be adjusted easily or affordably for increased heavy rainfall), agriculture (e.g., the use of high cost irrigation in areas that are projected to have more intense drought conditions), forestry (e.g., planting of unsuitable trees species which displace Indigenous Peoples and other forest- dependent communities) and human settlements (e.g., stranded assets and stranded vulnerable communities that cannot afford to shift away or adapt and require an increase in social safety nets)
high
2
train
2,958
AR6_WGII
97
1
Rights-based approaches to adaptation, participatory methodologies and inclusion of local and Indigenous knowledge, combined with informed consent, deliver mechanisms to avoid these pitfalls
medium
1
train
2,959
AR6_WGII
97
2
Adaptation solutions benefit from engagement with Indigenous and marginalised groups, solve past equity and justice issues and offer novel approaches
medium
1
train
2,960
AR6_WGII
97
3
Indigenous knowledge is a powerful tool to assess interlinked ecosystem functions across terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, bypassing siloed approaches and sectoral problems
high
2
train
2,961
AR6_WGII
97
4
Lastly, engagement with Indigenous knowledge and marginalised groups often offers an intergenerational context for adaptation solutions needed to avoid maladaptation
high
2
train
2,962
AR6_WGII
97
6
Avoiding maladaptive responses to sea level rise depends on immediate mitigation and application of adaptive planning that sets out near-term, low-regret actions while keeping open options to account for ongoing committed sea level rise
very high
3
train
2,963
AR6_WGII
97
7
Such forward-looking adaptive pathway planning and iterative risk management can address the current path dependencies that lead to maladaptation and can enable timely adaptation alignment with long implementation lead times, as well as addressing uncertainty about rate and magnitude of local sea level rise, and ensuring that adaptation will be more effective
medium
1
train
2,964
AR6_WGII
97
8
As sea level rise advances, only avoidance and relocation will eliminate coastal risks
high
2
test
2,965
AR6_WGII
97
9
Other measures only delay impacts for a time, increasing residual risk, perpetuating risk and creating ongoing legacy effects and inevitable property and ecosystem losses
high
2
train
2,966
AR6_WGII
97
10
While relocation may in the near term appear socially unacceptable, economically inefficient or technically infeasible, it may become the only feasible option as protection costs become unaffordable and technical limits are reached
medium
1
train
2,967
AR6_WGII
97
13
Integrated approaches, such as the water–energy–food nexus and inter-regional considerations of risks can reduce the risk of maladaptation, building on existing adaptation strategies, increasing community participation and consultation, integration of Indigenous knowledge and local 7 Ecosystem-based adaptation is defined as the use of ecosystem management activities to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to climate change.knowledge, focusing on the most vulnerable small-scale producers, anticipating risks of maladaptation in decision-making for long-lived activities, including infrastructure decisions, and the impact of trade- offs and co-benefits
high
2
train
2,968
AR6_WGII
97
15
Better ecosystem protection and management is key to reduce the risks that climate change poses to biodiversity and ecosystem services and build resilience; it is also essential that climate change adaptation be integrated into the planning and implementation of conservation and environmental management if it is to be fully effective in future
high
2
train
2,969
AR6_WGII
97
16
Risks to ecosystems from climate change can be reduced by protection and restoration and also by a range of targeted actions to adapt conservation practice to climate change
high
2
train
2,970
AR6_WGII
98
7
Ambitious and swift global mitigation offers more adaptation options and pathways to sustain ecosystems and their services
high
2
train
2,971
AR6_WGII
98
8
Even under current climate change, it is necessary to take account of climate change impacts, which are already occurring or are inevitable, in environmental management to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services
high
2
train
2,972
AR6_WGII
98
10
Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches are increasingly being used as part of strategies to manage flood risk, at the coast in the face of rising sea levels and inland in the context of more extreme rainfall events
high
2
train
2,973
AR6_WGII
98
11
Flood-risk measures that work with nature by allowing flooding within coastal and wetland ecosystems and support sediment accretion can reduce costs and bring substantial co-benefits to ecosystems, liveability and livelihoods
high
2
train
2,974
AR6_WGII
98
12
In urban areas, trees and natural areas can lower temperatures by providing shade and cooling from evapotranspiration
high
2
train
2,975
AR6_WGII
98
13
Restoration of ecosystems in catchments can also support water supplies during periods of variable 8 Actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits.rainfall and maintain water quality and, combined with inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities, provide disaster risk reduction and sustainable development
high
2
train
2,976
AR6_WGII
98
15
Restoration of wetlands could support livelihoods and help sequester carbon
medium
1
train
2,977
AR6_WGII
98
22
Taking account of interdisciplinary scientific information, Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and practical expertise is essential to effective ecosystem-based adaptation
high
2
train
2,978
AR6_WGII
98
23
There is a large risk of maladaptation where this does not happen
medium
1
train
2,979
AR6_WGII
98
27
Adaptation responses reduce future climate risks at 1.5°C warming, but effectiveness decreases above 2°C
high
2
train
2,980
AR6_WGII
98
28
Resilience is strengthened by eco- system-based adaptation (high confidence) and sustainable resource management of terrestrial and aquatic species
medium
1
train
2,981
AR6_WGII
101
1
Competition, trade-offs and conflict between mitigation and adaptation priorities will in- crease with climate change impacts
high
2
train
2,982
AR6_WGII
101
2
Integrated, multi-sectoral, inclusive and systems-oriented solutions reinforce long-term resilience (high confidence), along with supportive public policies
medium
1
train
2,983
AR6_WGII
101
4
Frequently documented options include rainwater harvesting, soil moisture conservation, cultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural diversification, climate services and adaptive eco-management in fisheries
high
2
train
2,984
AR6_WGII
101
5
Roughly 25% of assessed water-related adaptations have co-benefits, while 33% of the assessed reported current or future maladaptive outcomes
high
2
train
2,985
AR6_WGII
101
7
Integration of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge increase their effectiveness
high
2
train
2,986
AR6_WGII
101
9
Currently known adaptation responses generally perform more effectively at 1.5°C than at 2°C or more, with increasing risks remaining after adaptation at higher warming levels
high
2
train
2,987
AR6_WGII
101
10
Irrigation expansion will face increasing limits due to water availability beyond 1.5°C (medium confidence), with a potential doubling of regional risks to irrigation water availability between 2°C and 4°C
medium
1
train
2,988
AR6_WGII
101
11
Negative risks even with adaptation will become greater beyond 2°C warming in an increasing number of regions
high
2
train
2,989
AR6_WGII
101
13
Options such as ecosystem approaches to fisheries, agricultural diversification, agroforestry and other ecological practices support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support
medium
1
train
2,990
AR6_WGII
101
14
Ecosystem-based approaches support food security, nutrition and livelihoods when inclusive equitable governance processes are used
high
2
train
2,991
AR6_WGII
101
16
Adaptation options exist to reduce the vulnerability of fisheries through better management, governance and socioeconomic dimensions (medium confidence) to eliminate overexploitation and pollution
high
2
train
2,992
AR6_WGII
101
17
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can facilitate adaptation in small-scale fisheries, especially when combined with scientific knowledge and utilised in management regimes
medium
1
train
2,993
AR6_WGII
101
18
Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues
medium
1
train
2,994
AR6_WGII
101
20
Agricultural intensification addresses short-term food security and livelihood goals but has trade-offs in equity, biodiversity and ecosystem services
high
2
train
2,995
AR6_WGII
101
21
Irrigation is widely used and effective for yield stability, but with several negative outcomes, including water demand (high confidence), groundwater depletion (high confidence), alteration of local to regional climates (high confidence), increasing soil salinity (medium confidence), widening inequalities and loss of rural smallholder livelihoods with weak governance
medium
1
train
2,996
AR6_WGII
102
1
Genetic improvements through modern biotechnology have the potential to increase climate resilience in food production systems (high confidence), but with biophysical ceilings, and technical, agroecosystem, socioeconomic and political variables strongly influence and limit the uptake of climate resilient crops, particularly for smallholders
medium
1
train
2,997
AR6_WGII
102
3
Large-scale land deals for climate mitigation have trade-offs with livelihoods, water and food security
high
2
train
2,998
AR6_WGII
102
4
Afforestation programmes without adequate safeguards adversely affect Indigenous Peoples’ rights, land tenure and adaptive capacity
high
2
train
2,999
AR6_WGII
102
5
Some mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio-energy and afforestation, have a high water footprint
high
2
train