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1,800 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 24 | In particular, over Western Africa, upward trends in hydrological extremes such as maximum peak discharge have likely occurred during the last few decades (i.e., after 1980) and have caused increased flood events in riparian countries of rivers such as Niger, Senegal and Volta | high | 2 | train |
1,801 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 25 | In Southern Africa, trends in flood occurrences were decreasing prior to 1980 and increasing afterwards | medium | 1 | train |
1,802 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 7 | In addition, East Africa has experienced strong precipitation variability and intense wet spells leading to widespread pluvial flooding events hitting most countries including Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania | medium | 1 | train |
1,803 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 8 | Finally, with respect to Southern Africa, heavy precipitations events have increased in frequency | medium | 1 | train |
1,804 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 10 | Extreme precipitation intensity is also increasing in several other regions, such as SAH, NEAF, SEAF, ESAF and MDG | high | 2 | test |
1,805 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 17 | Hydrological drought: Section 11.9 noted observed decreases in hydrological drought over the Mediterranean (high confidence) and diminished summer river flows in West Africa | medium | 1 | train |
1,806 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 28 | Section 11.9 assesses increases in agricultural and ecological drought at 2°C GWL for North Africa and West Southern Africa (high confidence) and for East Southern Africa and Madagascar | medium | 1 | train |
1,807 | AR6_WGI | 1,810 | 32 | Days prone to fire conditions are going to increase in all extratropical Africa until the end of the century and fire weather indices are projected to largely increase in North and Southern Africa, where increasing aridity trends occur | high | 2 | train |
1,808 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 1 | Most African regions will undergo an increase in heavy precipitation that can lead to pluvial floods (high confidence), even as increasing dry climatic impact-drivers (aridity, hydrological, agricultural and ecological droughts, fire weather) are generally projected in the North Africa and Southern African regions (high confidence) and western portions of West Africa | medium | 1 | train |
1,809 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 4 | Over Western Africa and Southern Africa a future significant increase in wind speeds and wind energy potential is expected | medium | 1 | train |
1,810 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 10 | The frequency of Mediterranean wind storms reaching North Africa, including Medicanes, is projected to decrease, but their intensities are projected to increase, by the mid-century and beyond under SRES A1B, SRES A2 and RCP8.5 | medium | 1 | train |
1,811 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 12 | However, there is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, South Eastern Africa and East Southern Africa in a 1°C, 2°C and 3°C warmer world | medium | 1 | train |
1,812 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 19 | Dust loadings and related air pollution hazards (from fine particles that affect health) are projected to generally decrease in many regions of the Sahara and Sahel due to the changing winds (Evan et al., 2016) and slightly increase over the Guinea coast and West Africa | low | 0 | train |
1,813 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 23 | Observation and future projection of African glacier mass changes are assessed in Section 9.5.1 within the low-latitude glacier region, which is one of the regions with the largest mass loss even under low-emissions scenarios (assessment of this region is dominated by glaciers in the South American Andes, however) | high | 2 | train |
1,814 | AR6_WGI | 1,811 | 27 | Snow water equivalent and snow cover season duration also decline in the East African mountains, Ethiopian Highlands and Atlas Mountains with climate change | high | 2 | train |
1,815 | AR6_WGI | 1,812 | 7 | Extreme total water level (ETWL) magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region | high | 2 | train |
1,816 | AR6_WGI | 1,812 | 16 | Projections indicate that a vast majority of sandy coasts in the region will experience shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,817 | AR6_WGI | 1,812 | 31 | Relative sea level rise is virtually certain to continue around Africa, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts | high | 2 | train |
1,818 | AR6_WGI | 1,812 | 32 | Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase around the region over the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,819 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 7 | Records also indicate a higher rate of warming in minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures in Asia, leading to more frequent warm nights and warm days, and less frequent cold days and cold nights | high | 2 | train |
1,820 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 8 | Projections show continued warming over Asia in the future with contrasted regional patterns across the continent | high | 2 | train |
1,821 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 9 | For RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 at the end of the century, the mean estimated warming exceeds 5°C in WSB, ESB and RFE and 7°C in some parts | high | 2 | train |
1,822 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 19 | In these regions, the increase in number of days with exceedance of 35°C of high heat stress is also expected to increase substantially for the mid- century under SSP5-8.5 (typically by 10–50 days except in Arctic and Siberian regions), and by more than 60 days in areas of SEA, and a large difference is found between low- and high-end scenarios in the end of the century | high | 2 | train |
1,823 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 20 | Over WSB, ESB and RFE also, an increase of extreme heat durations and frequency is expected in all scenarios | high | 2 | train |
1,824 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 21 | Cold spell and frost: Cold spells intensity and frequency, as well as the number of frost days, in most Asian regions have been decreasing since the beginning of the 20th century (high confidence) (Chapter 11; Sheikh et al., 2015; Donat et al., 2016; Erlat and Türkeş, 2016; S. Dong et al., 2018; Liao et al., 2018, 2020; Lu et al., 2018; van Oldenborgh et al., 2019), except for the central Eurasian regions, where there was a cooling trend during 1995–2014, which is linked to sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas | medium | 1 | train |
1,825 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 23 | In Asia, temperatures have warmed during the last century | high | 2 | train |
1,826 | AR6_WGI | 1,815 | 24 | Extreme heat episodes have become more frequent in most regions | high | 2 | train |
1,827 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 3 | Mean precipitation is likely to increase in most areas of northern (WSB, ESB, RFE), southern (ECA, TIB, SAS) and East Asia (EAS) in different scenarios | high | 2 | train |
1,828 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 6 | River flood: Flood risk has grown in many places in China from 1961 to 2017 (Kundzewicz et al., 2019) | low | 0 | train |
1,829 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 7 | In SAS, the numbers of flood events and human fatalities have increased in India during 1978–2006 (Singh and Kumar, 2013), whereas the average country-wide inundation depth has been decreasing during 2002–2010 in Bangladesh, attributed to improved flood management | low | 0 | train |
1,830 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 9 | Over China floods will increase with different levels under different warming scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
1,831 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 10 | Monsoon floods will be more intense in SAS | medium | 1 | test |
1,832 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 12 | A changing snowmelt regime in the mountains may contribute to a shift of spring floods to earlier periods in Central Asia in future | medium | 1 | train |
1,833 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 13 | The annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-21st century in major Siberian rivers, and annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2–5% relative to the baseline period (1990–1999) under RCP8.5 scenario | medium | 1 | train |
1,834 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 16 | Heavy precipitation is very likely to become more intense and frequent in all areas of Asia except in ARP | medium | 1 | train |
1,835 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 22 | Aridity: Aridity in West Central Asia and parts of South Asia increased in recent decades | medium | 1 | train |
1,836 | AR6_WGI | 1,816 | 25 | There was a drying tendency in the dry season and significant wetting in the wet season in the Philippines during 1951–2010 (Villafuerte et al., 2014), and slight wetting in Vietnam during 1980–2017 (Stojanovic et al., 2020) | low | 0 | train |
1,837 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 2 | Hydrological drought: Section 11.9 indicates that limited evidence and inconsistent regional trends gives low confidence to observed and projected changes in hydrological drought in all Asian regions at a 2°C GWL (approximately mid-century), although West Central Asia hydrological droughts increase at the 4°C GWL (approximately end- of-century under higher emissions scenarios) | medium | 1 | train |
1,838 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 6 | Higher future temperatures are expected to alter the seasonal profile of hydrologic droughts given reduced summer snowmelt | medium | 1 | test |
1,839 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 12 | Studies examining a 2°C GWL give low confidence for projected broad changes to agricultural and ecological drought across all Asia regions, although at 4°C GWL agricultural and ecological drought increases are projected for West Central Asia and East Asia along with a decrease in South Asia | medium | 1 | train |
1,840 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 15 | Fire weather: Under the global warming scenario of 2°C, the magnitude of length and frequency of fire seasons are projected to increase with strong effects in India, China and Russia | medium | 1 | train |
1,841 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 19 | The potential burned areas in five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) will increase by 2–8% in the 2030s and 3–13% in the 2080s compared with the baseline | medium | 1 | train |
1,842 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 22 | Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify particularly in the northern regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,843 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 24 | But a short-term strengthening in SWS was observed during the winter since 2000 in eastern China | medium | 1 | train |
1,844 | AR6_WGI | 1,817 | 30 | Tropical cyclone: There was an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense tropical cyclones (TC), such as Category 4–5 (wind speeds >58 m s–1), in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Bay of Bengal since the mid-1980s | medium | 1 | train |
1,845 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 2 | However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons, more extreme TCs have affected the Philippines | low | 0 | train |
1,846 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 3 | The frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has significantly increased over time over the Arabian Sea and insignificantly decreased over the Bay of Bengal during 1977–2018 | low | 0 | train |
1,847 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 7 | As a consequence, the intensity of TCs affecting the Japan Islands would increase in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario (Yoshida et al., 2017), whereas the frequency of TCs affecting the Philippine region and Vietnam is projected to decrease (Kieu-Thi et al., 2016; C. Wang et al., 2017; Gallo et al., 2019) | medium | 1 | train |
1,848 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 11 | Dust storm frequency in most regions of northern China show a decreasing trend since the 1960s due to the decrease in surface wind speed | medium | 1 | train |
1,849 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 14 | In conclusion, surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia | high | 2 | train |
1,850 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 17 | Observations do show significant changes in the seasonal timing of Eurasian snow cover extent (especially for earlier spring snowmelt) since the 1970s, with seasonal changes expected to continue in the future | high | 2 | train |
1,851 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 20 | All regions show continuing decline in glacier mass and area in the coming century | high | 2 | train |
1,852 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 24 | Although enhanced meltwater from snow and glaciers largely offsets hydrological drought-like conditions (Pritchard, 2019), this effect is unsustainable and may reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear | medium | 1 | train |
1,853 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 25 | In the Himalayas and the TIB region higher temperatures will lead to higher glacier melt rates and significant glacier shrinkage and a summer runoff decrease | medium | 1 | train |
1,854 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 26 | Glacier runoff in the Asian high mountains will increase up to mid-century, and after that runoff might decrease due to the loss of glacier storage | medium | 1 | train |
1,855 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 29 | As many of these lakes will develop at the immediate foot of steep icy peaks with degrading permafrost and decreasing slope stability, the risk of glacier lake outburst floods and floods from landslides into moraine-dammed lakes is increasing in Asian high mountains | high | 2 | train |
1,856 | AR6_WGI | 1,818 | 30 | Permafrost : Permafrost is thawing in Asia | high | 2 | train |
1,857 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 2 | The permafrost area is projected to decline by 13.4–27.7% and 60–90% in TIB (L. Zhao et al., 2020) and 32% ± 11% and 76% ± 12% in Russia (Guo and Wang, 2016) by the end of the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively | high | 2 | train |
1,858 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 3 | Lake and river ice: Lake ice cover duration got shorter in many lakes in TIB (Yao et al., 2016; Cai et al., 2019; Guo et al., 2020) and some other areas such as north-west China (Cai et al., 2020) and north-east China (Yang et al., 2019) in the last two decades | high | 2 | train |
1,859 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 5 | Climate warming also leads to a significant reduction in the period with ice phenomena and the decrement of ice regime hazard in Russian lowland rivers (Agafonova et al., 2017), and the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River in northern China (Wan et al., 2020) | high | 2 | train |
1,860 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 6 | Lake ice and river ice in Asia are expected to decline with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century | high | 2 | train |
1,861 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 9 | Observational results generally show a decrease in the frequency and an increase in the mean intensity of snowfalls in most Chinese regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,862 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 10 | Because of the decrease in the snow frequency, the occurrence of large-scale snow disasters in TIB decreased | low | 0 | train |
1,863 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 11 | Large parts of northern high-latitude continents (including Siberia and RFE) have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls in the past few winters, and the reduction of Arctic sea ice would increase the chance of heavy snowfall events in those regions in the coming decades | medium | 1 | train |
1,864 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 12 | Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in Japan’s Northern Alps, the inland areas of Honshu Island and Hokkaido Island (Kawase et al., 2016, 2020; MOE et al., 2018), and the heavy wet snowfall can be enhanced over the mountainous regions in central Japan and northern part of Japan (Ohba and Sugimoto, 2020) | medium | 1 | train |
1,865 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 17 | Tree-ring-based snow avalanche reconstructions in the Indian Himalayas show an increase in avalanche occurrence and runout distances in recent decades (Ballesteros-Cánovas et al., 2018).In summary, snowpack and glaciers are projected to continue decreasing and permafrost to continue thawing in Asia | high | 2 | train |
1,866 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 25 | RSL change in many coastal areas in Asia, especially in EAS, is affected by land subsidence due to sediment compaction under building mass and groundwater extraction | high | 2 | train |
1,867 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 31 | Sea level rise and land subsidence will jointly lead to more flooding in delta areas in Asia | high | 2 | train |
1,868 | AR6_WGI | 1,819 | 32 | Extreme total water level magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region | high | 2 | train |
1,869 | AR6_WGI | 1,821 | 8 | Projections indicate that a majority of sandy coasts in the Asia region will experience shoreline retreat | high | 2 | train |
1,870 | AR6_WGI | 1,821 | 17 | Relative sea level rise is very likely to continue around Asia, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low- lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts | high | 2 | train |
1,871 | AR6_WGI | 1,821 | 18 | Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase around the region over the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,872 | AR6_WGI | 1,821 | 25 | The SROCC also projects an increase of mean significant wave height across the Southern Ocean | high | 2 | train |
1,873 | AR6_WGI | 1,823 | 17 | Heat thresholds potentially affecting agriculture and health, such as 35°C or 40°C, are projected to be exceeded more frequently over the 21st century in Australia under all RCPs | high | 2 | train |
1,874 | AR6_WGI | 1,823 | 22 | The projected frequency of exceeding dangerous humid heat thresholds is increasing in Australia, with a strong increase in Northern Australia for RCP8.5 | high | 2 | train |
1,875 | AR6_WGI | 1,823 | 25 | Cold spell and frost: Excepting parts of Southern Australia, the Australasian region has a significant trend of decreasing frequency in cold extremes since the 1950s | high | 2 | train |
1,876 | AR6_WGI | 1,823 | 33 | The mean temperature in Australasia is virtually certain to continue to rise through the 21st century, accompanied by less frequent cold extremes (virtually certain) and frost days | high | 2 | train |
1,877 | AR6_WGI | 1,823 | 34 | Heat stress is projected to increase in Australia | high | 2 | train |
1,878 | AR6_WGI | 1,824 | 4 | Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in Central and north-east Australia (low confidence) and in the south and west of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
1,879 | AR6_WGI | 1,824 | 13 | While median annual runoff is projected to decrease in most of Australia (Chiew et al., 2017), consistent with projected decreases in average rainfall (CSIRO and BOM, 2015; Alexander and Arblaster, 2017), river floods are projected to increase due to more intense extreme rainfall events and associated increase in runoff | medium | 1 | train |
1,880 | AR6_WGI | 1,824 | 27 | Aridity: In terms of dry climatic impact-drivers, a substantial decrease in precipitation has been observed across Southern Australia during the cool season (April–October) | medium | 1 | train |
1,881 | AR6_WGI | 1,825 | 26 | Fire weather indices are projected to increase in most of Australia (high confidence) and many parts of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
1,882 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 3 | Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Western Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
1,883 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 4 | Hydrological droughts are projected to increase in Southern Australia | medium | 1 | train |
1,884 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 5 | Fire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
1,885 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 9 | In New Zealand, mean wind patterns are projected to become more north-easterly in summer, and westerlies to become more intense in winter | low | 0 | test |
1,886 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 11 | CMIP5 projections of severe winds indicate a general increase in north-eastern Australia, and decreases in some parts in Southern and Central Australia | medium | 1 | train |
1,887 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 15 | Due to the intensification and the shift of the austral storm track by the end of the century (Yin, 2005), increases in extreme wind speed in New Zealand are projected over the South Island and the southern part of the North Island by mid- and end-century for all RCPs | low | 0 | train |
1,888 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 16 | Tropical cyclone: In Australia, the number of TCs has generally declined since 1982, and the frequency of intense TCs that make landfall in north-eastern Australia has declined significantly since the 19th century | medium | 1 | train |
1,889 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 21 | While projections suggest a decrease in severe winds in Central and Southern Australia, changes in vegetation due to increased aridity and hydrological drought could be expected to result in increased wind erosion and dust emission across the country | medium | 1 | train |
1,890 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 23 | Tropical cyclones in north-eastern and North Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) while their intensity is projected to increase | low | 0 | train |
1,891 | AR6_WGI | 1,826 | 28 | Projections for Southern Australia and New Zealand show a continuing reduction in snowfall during the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,892 | AR6_WGI | 1,827 | 2 | Glacier: Glacier mass and areal extent in New Zealand is projected to continue to decease over the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,893 | AR6_WGI | 1,827 | 5 | In summary, snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand | medium | 1 | train |
1,894 | AR6_WGI | 1,827 | 6 | In New Zealand, glacier ice mass and extent are expected to decrease over the 21st century for all scenarios | high | 2 | train |
1,895 | AR6_WGI | 1,827 | 15 | Extreme total water level magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region | high | 2 | train |
1,896 | AR6_WGI | 1,827 | 22 | Projections indicate that a majority of sandy coasts in the region will experience shoreline retreat, throughout the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,897 | AR6_WGI | 1,828 | 14 | Relative sea level rise is virtually certain to continue in the oceans around Australasia, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts | high | 2 | train |
1,898 | AR6_WGI | 1,828 | 15 | Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase around the region over the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,899 | AR6_WGI | 1,828 | 21 | IPCC AR5 projections (IPCC, 2014b) pointed to increases in mean temperature between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the century (high confidence) and increases in the occurrence of warm days and nights under various future climate scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
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