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1,600 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 12 | Bias adjustment cannot overcome all consequences of unresolved or strongly misrepresented physical processes, such as large-scale circulation biases or local feedbacks, and may instead introduce other biases and implausible climate change signals | medium | 1 | train |
1,601 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 13 | Using bias adjustment as a method for statistical downscaling, particularly for coarse-resolution global models, may lead to substantial misrepresentations of regional climate and climate change | medium | 1 | train |
1,602 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 15 | The performance of statistical approaches and their fitness for future projections depends on predictors and change factors taken from the driving dynamical models | high | 2 | train |
1,603 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 17 | Multi-model ensembles enable the assessment of regional climate response uncertainty | very high | 3 | train |
1,604 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 18 | Discarding models that fundamentally misrepresent processes relevant for a given purpose improves the fitness of multi-model ensembles for generating regional climate information | high | 2 | train |
1,605 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 19 | At the regional scale, multi-model mean and ensemble spread are not sufficient to characterize low-likelihood, high-impact changes or situations where different models simulate substantially different or even opposing changes | high | 2 | train |
1,606 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 21 | Since AR5, the availability of multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) allows for a more robust separation of model uncertainty and internal variability in regional-scale projections and provides a more comprehensive spectrum of possible changes associated with internal variability | high | 2 | train |
1,607 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 25 | Multiple attribution approaches, including optimal fingerprinting, grid-point detection, pattern recognition and dynamical adjustment methods, as well as multi-model, single-forcing large ensembles and multi-centennial paleoclimate records, support the contribution of human influence to several regional multi-decadal mean precipitation changes | high | 2 | train |
1,608 | AR6_WGI | 1,383 | 27 | Multiple lines of evidence, combining multi-model ensemble global projections with those coming from SMILEs, show that internal variability is largely contributing to the delayed or absent emergence of the anthropogenic signal in long-term regional mean precipitation changes | high | 2 | train |
1,609 | AR6_WGI | 1,384 | 6 | Annual mean daily minimum temperature is more affected by urbanization than annual mean daily maximum temperature | very high | 3 | train |
1,610 | AR6_WGI | 1,384 | 7 | The global annual mean surface air temperature response to urbanization is, however, negligible | very high | 3 | train |
1,611 | AR6_WGI | 1,384 | 9 | A large effect is expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves | very high | 3 | train |
1,612 | AR6_WGI | 1,384 | 14 | For example, the apparent contradiction between the observed decrease in Indian monsoon rainfall over the second half of the 20th century and the projected long-term increase is explained by attribution of the trends to different forcings, with aerosols dominating recently and greenhouse gases in the future | high | 2 | train |
1,613 | AR6_WGI | 1,393 | 10 | Further, the chapter identified that the regional climate information was limited by the paucity of comprehensive observations and their analysis along with the different levels of confidence in projections | high | 2 | train |
1,614 | AR6_WGI | 1,394 | 2 | Part of the projected increase in heatwaves and droughts can be attributed to soil moisture feedbacks in regions where evapotranspiration is limited by moisture availability | medium | 1 | train |
1,615 | AR6_WGI | 1,394 | 3 | Vegetation changes can also amplify or dampen extreme events through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration, which will influence future trends in extreme events | medium | 1 | train |
1,616 | AR6_WGI | 1,394 | 8 | Urbanization increases the risks associated with extreme events | high | 2 | train |
1,617 | AR6_WGI | 1,394 | 9 | Urbanization suppresses evaporative cooling and amplifies heatwave intensity (high confidence) with a strong influence on minimum temperatures | high | 2 | train |
1,618 | AR6_WGI | 1,394 | 12 | The SROCC assessed that it is virtually certain that Antarctica and Greenland have lost mass over the past decade and observed glacier mass loss over the last decades is attributable to anthropogenic climate change | high | 2 | train |
1,619 | AR6_WGI | 1,395 | 3 | Averaged over the decade 2010–2019, monthly average sea ice area in August, September and October has been about 25% smaller than during 1979–1988 | high | 2 | train |
1,620 | AR6_WGI | 1,398 | 13 | Their observations are valuable | high | 2 | train |
1,621 | AR6_WGI | 1,398 | 20 | Availability of active sensors on LEO satellites enables measurement of microphysical properties of aerosol, cloud and precipitation, which can advance regional climate studies and process evaluation studies to improve regional climate models | high | 2 | train |
1,622 | AR6_WGI | 1,400 | 4 | The regional reanalyses represent the frequencies of extremes and the distributions of precipitation, surface air temperature, and surface wind better than global reanalyses | high | 2 | train |
1,623 | AR6_WGI | 1,400 | 7 | Regional reanalyses can provide estimates that are more consistent with observations than dynamical downscaling approaches, due to the assimilation of additional local observations | high | 2 | train |
1,624 | AR6_WGI | 1,400 | 23 | Quality-controlled, high-resolution observational datasets are especially needed at regional and local scales to assess models as their resolution increases (Di Luca et al., 2016; Zittis and Hadjinicolaou, 2017), although the awareness and appropriate use of the QC information is challenging (Tapiador et al., 2017) when generating regional climate information | high | 2 | train |
1,625 | AR6_WGI | 1,402 | 13 | Gridded products of climate variables, including temperature and precipitation, are strongly affected | high | 2 | train |
1,626 | AR6_WGI | 1,404 | 16 | This technological trend could prove very useful | high | 2 | train |
1,627 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 14 | Realistically representing local-scale phenomena such as land–sea breezes requires simulations at a resolution of the order of 10 km | high | 2 | train |
1,628 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 15 | Simulations at kilometre-scale resolution add value in particular to the representation of convection, sub-daily summer precipitation extremes (high confidence) and soil-moisture–precipitation feedbacks | medium | 1 | train |
1,629 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 16 | Resolving regional processes may be required to correctly represent the sign of regional climate change | medium | 1 | train |
1,630 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 22 | Bias adjustment has proven beneficial as an interface between climate model projections and impact modelling in many different contexts | high | 2 | test |
1,631 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 23 | Weather generators realistically simulate many statistical aspects of present-day daily temperature and precipitation | high | 2 | train |
1,632 | AR6_WGI | 1,423 | 24 | The performance of these approaches and their fitness for future projections also depends on predictors and change factors taken from the driving dynamical models | high | 2 | train |
1,633 | AR6_WGI | 1,443 | 17 | An accurate estimation of the delay in regional-scale emergence caused by internal variability remains challenging due to global model biases in their representation of internal variability as well as methodological difficulties to precisely estimate these biases | high | 2 | train |
1,634 | AR6_WGI | 1,449 | 11 | This process enhances trust in the information as well its usefulness, relevance, and uptake, especially when the communication involves complex, contextual details | high | 2 | train |
1,635 | AR6_WGI | 1,449 | 13 | Drawing upon multiple lines of evidence in the construction of climate information increases the fitness of this information and creates a stronger foundation | high | 2 | train |
1,636 | AR6_WGI | 1,453 | 8 | Projections There is high confidence that by the end of century most regions in South America will undergo extreme heat stress conditions much more often than in the recent past, with about 50–100 more days per year under SSP1-2.6 and more than 200 additional days per year under SSP5-8.5 | high | 2 | train |
1,637 | AR6_WGI | 1,453 | 15 | There is an increase in probability and intensity of agricultural and ecological droughts (medium confidence) and there is an increase in frequency and severity of hydrological droughts | high | 2 | train |
1,638 | AR6_WGI | 1,453 | 16 | Attribution Global warming has contributed to drying in dry summer climates including the Mediterranean | high | 2 | train |
1,639 | AR6_WGI | 1,453 | 18 | Multiple lines of evidence suggest that anthropogenic forcings are causing increased aridity and drought severity in the Mediterranean region | high | 2 | train |
1,640 | AR6_WGI | 1,454 | 24 | These factors contribute to attribution of historical climate change signals (Section 10.4), recognizing that attribution must account for the interplay between externally forced Cross-Chapter Box 10.3 (continued) An increasing trend towards agricultural and ecological droughts has been attributed to human-induced climate change in the Mediterranean | medium | 1 | train |
1,641 | AR6_WGI | 1,454 | 28 | Increased evapotranspiration due to growing atmospheric water demand will decrease soil moisture | high | 2 | train |
1,642 | AR6_WGI | 1,454 | 29 | The seasonality of runoff and streamflow (the annual difference between the wettest and driest months of the year) is expected to increase with global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,643 | AR6_WGI | 1,454 | 32 | The paleoclimate record provides context for these future expected changes: climate change will shift soil moisture outside the range of observed and reconstructed values spanning the last millennium | high | 2 | train |
1,644 | AR6_WGI | 1,463 | 10 | In summary, long-term future scenarios dominated by GHG increases (such as the RCPs) suggest increases in Indian summer monsoon rainfall | high | 2 | train |
1,645 | AR6_WGI | 1,472 | 5 | The SROCC assessed that HKH (named High Mountain Asia) surface-air temperature has warmed more rapidly than the global mean over recent decades | high | 2 | train |
1,646 | AR6_WGI | 1,474 | 6 | Glacier trends The SROCC assessed that snow cover has declined in duration, depth and accumulated mass at lower elevations in mountain regions, including the HKH | high | 2 | train |
1,647 | AR6_WGI | 1,474 | 7 | Glaciers are losing mass (very high confidence) and permafrost is warming | high | 2 | train |
1,648 | AR6_WGI | 1,474 | 21 | The SR1.5 (IPCC, 2018b) stated that heavy precipitation risk in high-elevation regions is projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming | medium | 1 | train |
1,649 | AR6_WGI | 1,474 | 27 | The SROCC assessed that glaciers will lose substantial mass (high confidence) and permafrost will undergo increasing thaw and degradation | very high | 3 | train |
1,650 | AR6_WGI | 1,474 | 33 | Glacier mass in HKH will decline through the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
1,651 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 12 | New evidence strengthens the conclusion from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) that even relatively small incremental increases in global warming (+0.5°C) cause statistically significant changes in extremes on the global scale and for large regions | high | 2 | train |
1,652 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 13 | In particular, this is the case for temperature extremes (very likely), the intensification of heavy precipitation (high confidence) including that associated with tropical cyclones (medium confidence), and the worsening of droughts in some regions | high | 2 | train |
1,653 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 17 | Projected percentage changes in frequency are higher for the rarer extreme events | high | 2 | train |
1,654 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 19 | There have been improvements in some observation-based datasets, including reanalysis data | high | 2 | train |
1,655 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 20 | Climate models can reproduce the sign (direction) of changes in temperature extremes observed globally and in most regions, although the magnitude of the trends may differ | high | 2 | train |
1,656 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 21 | Models are able to capture the large-scale spatial distribution of precipitation extremes over land | high | 2 | train |
1,657 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 22 | The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are similar to those simulated by CMIP5 models | high | 2 | train |
1,658 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 23 | Higher horizontal model resolution improves the spatial representation of some extreme events (e.g., heavy precipitation events), in particular in regions with highly varying topography | high | 2 | train |
1,659 | AR6_WGI | 1,533 | 30 | Irrigation and crop expansion have attenuated increases in summer hot extremes in some regions, such as the Midwestern USA | medium | 1 | train |
1,660 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 5 | In most regions, future changes in the intensity of temperature extremes will very likely be proportional to changes in global warming, and up to two to three times larger | high | 2 | train |
1,661 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 6 | The highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions and in the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,662 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 7 | The highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,663 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 14 | Evidence of a human influence on heavy precipitation has emerged in some regions | high | 2 | train |
1,664 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 18 | At the global scale, the intensification of heavy precipitation will follow the rate of increase in the maximum amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold as it warms | high | 2 | test |
1,665 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 19 | The increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will be non-linear with more warming and will be higher for rarer events | high | 2 | train |
1,666 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 20 | Increases in the intensity of extreme precipitation at regional scales will vary, depending on the amount of regional warming, changes in atmospheric circulation and storm dynamics | high | 2 | test |
1,667 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 23 | The seasonality of river floods has changed in cold regions where snow-melt is involved, with an earlier occurrence of peak streamflow | high | 2 | train |
1,668 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 31 | Increases in evapotranspiration have been driven by increases in atmospheric evaporative demand induced by increased temperature, decreased relative humidity and increased net radiation | high | 2 | train |
1,669 | AR6_WGI | 1,534 | 32 | Trends in precipitation are not a main driver in affecting global-scale trends in drought | medium | 1 | train |
1,670 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 2 | Regional- scale attribution shows that human-induced climate change has contributed to increased agricultural and ecological droughts (MED, WNA), and increased hydrological drought (MED) in some regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,671 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 4 | Several regions will be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts even if global warming is stabilised at 2°C, including MED, WSAF, SAM and SSA (high confidence), and ESAF, MDG, EAU, SAU, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SWS, WCE, NCA, WNA and CNA | medium | 1 | train |
1,672 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 6 | At 4°C of global warming, about 50% of all inhabited AR6 regions would be affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts (WCE, MED, CAU, EAU, SAU, WCA, EAS, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SAM, SWS, SSA, NCA, CNA, ENA, WNA, WSAF , ESAF , MDG: medium confidence or higher), and only two regions (NEAF , SAS) would experience decreases in agricultural and ecological drought | medium | 1 | train |
1,673 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 14 | Peak TC rain rates increase with local warming at least at the rate 2 Six-hourly intensity estimates during the lifetime of each TC.of mean water vapour increase over oceans (about 7% per 1°C of warming) and in some cases exceeding this rate due to increased low-level moisture convergence caused by increases in TC wind intensity | medium | 1 | train |
1,674 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 19 | None of these changes can be explained by natural variability alone | medium | 1 | train |
1,675 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 20 | The proportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak wind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale with increasing global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,676 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 21 | The total global frequency of TC formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming | medium | 1 | train |
1,677 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 23 | Future wind speed changes are expected to be small, although poleward shifts in the storm tracks could lead to substantial changes in extreme wind speeds in some regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,678 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 25 | The frequency of spring severe convective storms is projected to increase in the USA, leading to a lengthening of the severe convective storm season | medium | 1 | train |
1,679 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 28 | Concurrent heatwaves and droughts have become more frequent, and this trend will continue with higher global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,680 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 29 | Fire weather conditions (compound hot, dry and windy events) have become more probable in some regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,681 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 30 | The probability of compound flooding (storm surge, extreme rainfall and/or river flow) has increased in some locations (medium confidence), and will continue to increase due to sea level rise and increases in heavy precipitation, including changes in precipitation intensity associated with tropical cyclones | high | 2 | train |
1,682 | AR6_WGI | 1,535 | 31 | The land area affected by concurrent extremes has increased | high | 2 | train |
1,683 | AR6_WGI | 1,536 | 3 | Compound events, including concurrent extremes, are a factor increasing the probability of low- likelihood, high-impact events | high | 2 | train |
1,684 | AR6_WGI | 1,536 | 4 | With increasing global warming, some compound events with low likelihood in past and current climates will become more frequent, and there is a higher chance of occurrence of historically unprecedented events and surprises | high | 2 | train |
1,685 | AR6_WGI | 1,536 | 5 | However, even extreme events that do not have a particularly low probability in the present climate (at more than 1°C of global warming) can be perceived as surprises because of the pace of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,686 | AR6_WGI | 1,543 | 9 | Anthropogenic forcing (e.g., increases in greenhouse gas concentrations) directly affects thermodynamic variables, including overall increases in high temperatures and atmospheric evaporative demand, and regional changes in atmospheric moisture, which intensify heatwaves, droughts and heavy precipitation events when they occur | high | 2 | train |
1,687 | AR6_WGI | 1,544 | 23 | Land use can affect regional extremes, in particular hot extremes, in several ways | high | 2 | train |
1,688 | AR6_WGI | 1,544 | 28 | Aerosol forcing also has a strong regional footprint associated with regional emissions, which affects temperature and precipitation extremes | high | 2 | train |
1,689 | AR6_WGI | 1,545 | 14 | These can also lead to a higher warming of extreme temperatures compared to mean temperature (high confidence), and possibly cooling in some regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,690 | AR6_WGI | 1,549 | 5 | Phenomenon and Direction of TrendProjected Changes at +1.5ºC Global WarmingProjected Changes at +2°C Global WarmingProjected Changes at +4°C Global Warming Warmer and/or more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Warmer and/or fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Warm spells/heatwaves; increases in frequency or intensity over most land areas Cold spells/cold waves: decreases in frequency or intensity over most land areasVirtually certain on global scale Extremely likely on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Extremely likely : Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9}Virtually certain on global scale Virtually certain on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9}Virtually certain on global scale Virtually certain on all continents Highest increase of temperature of hottest days is projected in some mid-latitude and semi-arid regions, and the South American Monsoon region, at about 1.5 times to twice the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3, Figure 11.3} Highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming (high confidence) {11.3} Continental-scale projections: Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America {11.3, 11.9} Heavy precipitation events: increase in the frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation High confidence that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Very likely: Asia, North America Likely: Africa, Europe High confidence: Central and South America Medium confidence: Australasia {11.4, 11.9}Likely that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Extremely likely: Asia, North America Very likely: Africa, Europe Likely: Australasia, Central and South America {11.4, 11.9}Very likely that increases take place in most land regions {11.4} Virtually certain: Africa, Asia, North America Extremely likely: Central and South America, Europe Very likely Australasia {11.4, 11.9} Agricultural and ecological droughts: increases in intensity and/or duration of drought events More regions affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts compared to observed changes | high | 2 | train |
1,691 | AR6_WGI | 1,552 | 7 | Compound events, including concurrent extremes, are a factor increasing the probability of LLHI events | high | 2 | train |
1,692 | AR6_WGI | 1,552 | 8 | With increasing global warming, some compound events with low likelihood in past and current climate will become more frequent, and there is a higher chance of historically unprecedented events and surprises | high | 2 | train |
1,693 | AR6_WGI | 1,552 | 9 | However, even extreme events that do not have a particularly low probability in the present climate (at more than 1°C of global warming) can be perceived as surprises because of the pace of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,694 | AR6_WGI | 1,563 | 14 | Land–atmosphere feedbacks strongly modulate regional- and local-scale changes in temperature extremes | high | 2 | train |
1,695 | AR6_WGI | 1,563 | 21 | Regional external forcings, including land-use changes and emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, play an important role in the changes of temperature extremes in some regions | high | 2 | train |
1,696 | AR6_WGI | 1,564 | 1 | This leads to heterogeneity in regional changes and their associated uncertainties | high | 2 | train |
1,697 | AR6_WGI | 1,564 | 3 | Irrigation and crop expansion have attenuated increases in summer hot extremes in some regions, such as the Midwestern USA | medium | 1 | train |
1,698 | AR6_WGI | 1,565 | 5 | The intensity and frequency of cold spells in all Asian regions have been decreasing since the beginning of the 20th century | high | 2 | train |
1,699 | AR6_WGI | 1,566 | 25 | Annual minimum temperatures on land have increased about three times more than global surface temperature since the 1960s, with particularly strong warming in the Arctic | high | 2 | train |
Subsets and Splits