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1,700 | AR6_WGI | 1,566 | 32 | In general, CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical simulations are similar in their performance in simulating the observed climatology of extreme temperatures | high | 2 | train |
1,701 | AR6_WGI | 1,569 | 25 | Irrigation and crop intensification have been shown to lead to a cooling in some regions, in particular in North America, Europe, and India | high | 2 | train |
1,702 | AR6_WGI | 1,569 | 33 | Crop intensification, irrigation and no-till farming have attenuated increases in summer hot extremes in some regions, such as Central North America | medium | 1 | train |
1,703 | AR6_WGI | 1,571 | 20 | Exceptions include lower confidence in the projected decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes compared with the 1995–2014 baseline under 1.5°C of global warming | medium | 1 | train |
1,704 | AR6_WGI | 1,572 | 26 | In most regions, changes in the magnitude of temperature extremes are proportional to global warming levels | high | 2 | train |
1,705 | AR6_WGI | 1,573 | 1 | The highest increase of temperature of coldest days is projected in Arctic regions, at about three times the rate of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,706 | AR6_WGI | 1,573 | 2 | The probability of temperature extremes generally increases nonlinearly with increasing global warming levels | high | 2 | train |
1,707 | AR6_WGI | 1,573 | 28 | Urbanization intensifies extreme precipitation, especially in the afternoon and early evening, over the urban area and its downwind region | medium | 1 | train |
1,708 | AR6_WGI | 1,573 | 32 | Warming-induced thermodynamic change results in an increase in extreme precipitation, at a rate that closely follows the C-C relationship at the global scale | high | 2 | train |
1,709 | AR6_WGI | 1,573 | 34 | Precipitation extremes are also affected by forcings other than changes in greenhouse gases, including changes in aerosols, land- use and land-cover change, and urbanization | medium | 1 | train |
1,710 | AR6_WGI | 1,574 | 6 | Daily mean precipitation intensities have increased since the mid-20th century in a majority of land regions | high | 2 | train |
1,711 | AR6_WGI | 1,574 | 32 | In Asia (Table 11.8), there is robust evidence that extreme precipitation has increased since the 1950s | high | 2 | train |
1,712 | AR6_WGI | 1,575 | 7 | In Australasia (Table 11.11), available evidence has not shown an increase or a decrease in heavy precipitation over Australasia as a whole | medium | 1 | train |
1,713 | AR6_WGI | 1,576 | 7 | There were increases in extreme precipitation in Tobago from 1985–2015 (Stephenson et al., 2014; Dookie et al., 2019) and decreases in south-western French Polynesia and the southern subtropics | low | 0 | train |
1,714 | AR6_WGI | 1,578 | 16 | The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation simulated by CMIP6 models are similar to those simulated by CMIP5 models | high | 2 | train |
1,715 | AR6_WGI | 1,579 | 27 | Human influence has contributed to the intensification of heavy precipitation in three continents where observational data are more abundant | high | 2 | train |
1,716 | AR6_WGI | 1,581 | 10 | Heavy precipitation will likely increase by the end of the century under RCP8.5 in West Africa (Diallo et al., 2016; Dosio, 2016; Sylla et al., 2016; Abiodun et al., 2017; Akinsanola and Zhou, 2019; Dosio et al., 2019) and is projected to increase | high | 2 | train |
1,717 | AR6_WGI | 1,581 | 11 | In north-east and central east Africa, extreme precipitation intensity is projected to increase across CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX-CORE | high | 2 | train |
1,718 | AR6_WGI | 1,581 | 26 | Agreement in projected changes by different models is low in regions of complex topography such as Hindu-Kush Himalayas (Roy et al., 2019), but CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX-CORE simulations consistently project an increase in heavy precipitation in higher latitude areas, such as West and East Siberia, and Russian Far East | high | 2 | train |
1,719 | AR6_WGI | 1,581 | 31 | Daily rainfall extremes are projected to increase at the 2.0°C global warming level | medium | 1 | train |
1,720 | AR6_WGI | 1,583 | 1 | The increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will be non-linear with more warming and will be higher for rarer events | high | 2 | train |
1,721 | AR6_WGI | 1,583 | 2 | Increases in the intensity of extreme precipitation events at regional scales will depend on the amount of regional warming as well as changes in atmospheric circulation and storm dynamics leading to regional differences in the rate of heavy precipitation changes | high | 2 | train |
1,722 | AR6_WGI | 1,584 | 1 | Changes in extreme precipitation may be used as a proxy to infer changes in some types of flash floods that are more directly related to extreme precipitation | high | 2 | train |
1,723 | AR6_WGI | 1,584 | 17 | In summary, the seasonality of floods has changed in cold regions where snowmelt dominates the flow regime in response to warming | high | 2 | train |
1,724 | AR6_WGI | 1,586 | 3 | In summary, global hydrological models project a larger fraction of land areas to be affected by an increase in river floods than by a decrease in river floods | medium | 1 | train |
1,725 | AR6_WGI | 1,586 | 23 | Thermodynamic processes are thus the main driver of drought changes in a warming climate | high | 2 | train |
1,726 | AR6_WGI | 1,588 | 32 | Drought events are the result of dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, with thermodynamic processes being the main driver of drought changes under human-induced climate change | high | 2 | train |
1,727 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 9 | Several meteorological and agricultural and ecological drought events have been attributed to human-induced climate change, even in regions where no long-term changes are detected | medium | 1 | train |
1,728 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 10 | However, a lack of attribution to human-induced climate change has also been shown for some events | medium | 1 | train |
1,729 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 11 | In summary, human influence has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts in the dry season in some regions due to increases in evapotranspiration | medium | 1 | train |
1,730 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 12 | The increases in evapotranspiration have been driven by increases in atmospheric evaporative demand induced by increased temperature, decreased relative humidity and increased net radiation over affected land areas | high | 2 | train |
1,731 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 15 | Human- induced climate change has contributed to global-scale change in low flow, but human water management and land-use changes are also important drivers | medium | 1 | train |
1,732 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 22 | Projected changes show increases in drought frequency and intensity in several regions as function of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,733 | AR6_WGI | 1,595 | 23 | There are also substantial increases in drought hazard probability from 1.5°C to 2°C global warming and for further additional increments of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,734 | AR6_WGI | 1,596 | 3 | In Asia, most AR6 regions show low confidence in projected changes in meteorological droughts at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, with a few regions displaying a decrease in meteorological droughts at 4°C of global warming (RAR, ESB, RFE, ECA; medium confidence), although there is a projected increase in meteorological droughts in South East Asia at 4°C | medium | 1 | train |
1,735 | AR6_WGI | 1,596 | 16 | The overall evidence suggests an increase in meteorological drought at 4°C in the WCE region | medium | 1 | train |
1,736 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 3 | The assessment shows that several regions will be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts even if global warming is stabilized at 2°C, including MED, WSAF, SAM and SSA (high confidence), and ESAF, MDG, EAU, SAU, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SWS, WCE, NCA, WNA and CNA | medium | 1 | train |
1,737 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 5 | NEAF, SAS are also projected to experience less agricultural and ecological drought with global warming | medium | 1 | train |
1,738 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 11 | In summary, more regions are affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with increasing global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,739 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 12 | New evidence strengthens the SR1.5 conclusion that even relatively small incremental increases in global warming (+0.5°C) cause a worsening of droughts in some regions | high | 2 | train |
1,740 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 14 | A larger number of regions are projected to be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts at 2°C of global warming, including MED, WSAF, SAM and SSA (high confidence), and ESAF, MDG, EAU, SAU, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SWS, WCE, NCA, WNA and CNA | medium | 1 | train |
1,741 | AR6_WGI | 1,599 | 18 | Enhanced atmospheric CO 2 concentrations lead to enhanced water-use efficiency in plants | medium | 1 | train |
1,742 | AR6_WGI | 1,601 | 9 | The SR1.5 (Chapter 3, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) essentially confirmed the AR5 assessment of TCs and ETCs, adding that heavy precipitation associated with TCs is projected to be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C global warming | medium | 1 | train |
1,743 | AR6_WGI | 1,602 | 18 | Global changes (blue shading) from top to bottom: (i) Increased mean and maximum rain rates in TCs, ETCs, and ARs [past ( low confidence due to lack of reliable data) and projected (high confidence)]; (ii) Increased proportion of stronger TCs [past ( medium confidence) and projected (high confidence)]; (iii) Decrease or no change in global frequency of TC genesis [past ( low confidence due to lack of reliable data) and projected (medium confidence)]; and (iv) Increased and decreased ETC wind speed, depending on the region, as storm tracks change [past ( low confidence due to lack of reliable data) and projected | medium | 1 | train |
1,744 | AR6_WGI | 1,602 | 19 | Regional changes, from left to right: (i) Poleward TC migration in the western North Pacific and subsequent changes in TC exposure [past ( medium confidence) and projected (medium confidence)]; (ii) Slowdown of TC forward translation speed over the contiguous USA and subsequent increase in TC rainfall [past ( medium confidence) and projected (low confidence due to lack of directed studies)]; and (iii) Increase in mean and maximum SCS rain rate and increase in spring SCS frequency and season length over the contiguous USA [past ( low confidence due to lack of reliable data) and projected | medium | 1 | train |
1,745 | AR6_WGI | 1,604 | 24 | However, higher-resolution models generally capture TC properties more realistically | high | 2 | train |
1,746 | AR6_WGI | 1,604 | 27 | Models with realistic atmosphere– ocean interactions are generally better than atmosphere-only models at reproducing realistic TC evolutions | high | 2 | train |
1,747 | AR6_WGI | 1,610 | 6 | Subsequent literature assessed in the Climate Science Special Report (Kossin et al., 2017) led to the assessment of the observed tornado activity over the 2000s in the USA, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days | medium | 1 | train |
1,748 | AR6_WGI | 1,610 | 8 | Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms that combine tornadoes, hail, and winds | high | 2 | train |
1,749 | AR6_WGI | 1,611 | 13 | There is an upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the USA | high | 2 | train |
1,750 | AR6_WGI | 1,611 | 37 | There is medium confidence that the mean annual number of tornadoes in the USA has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year, and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days | high | 2 | train |
1,751 | AR6_WGI | 1,613 | 12 | In summary, the average and maximum rain rates associated with severe convective storms increase in a warming world in some regions, including the USA | high | 2 | train |
1,752 | AR6_WGI | 1,613 | 14 | The frequency of severe convective storms in spring is projected to increase in the USA, leading to a lengthening of the severe convective storm season | medium | 1 | train |
1,753 | AR6_WGI | 1,613 | 15 | There is significant uncertainty about projected regional changes in tornadoes, hail, and lightning due to limited analysis of simulations using convection-permitting models | high | 2 | train |
1,754 | AR6_WGI | 1,614 | 12 | Based on the consistency of these studies, it is likely that medicanes will decrease in frequency, while the strongest medicanes become stronger under warming scenario projections | medium | 1 | train |
1,755 | AR6_WGI | 1,614 | 13 | In summary, the observed intensity of extreme winds is becoming less severe in the low to mid-latitudes, while becoming more severe in high latitudes poleward of 60 degrees | low | 0 | train |
1,756 | AR6_WGI | 1,614 | 14 | Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme winds are associated with projected changes in the frequency and intensity of TCs and ETCs | medium | 1 | train |
1,757 | AR6_WGI | 1,615 | 9 | The land area affected by concurrent extremes has increased | high | 2 | train |
1,758 | AR6_WGI | 1,615 | 10 | Concurrent extreme events at different locations, but possibly affecting similar sectors (e.g., breadbaskets) in different regions, will become more frequent with increasing global warming, in particular above +2°C of global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,759 | AR6_WGI | 1,617 | 13 | Both the ENSO amplitude and the frequency of high-magnitude events since 1950 is higher than over the pre-industrial period | medium | 1 | train |
1,760 | AR6_WGI | 1,620 | 18 | Both the ENSO amplitude and the frequency of high-magnitude events since 1950 is higher than over the pre-industrial period | medium | 1 | test |
1,761 | AR6_WGI | 1,720 | 11 | Some evidence | medium | 1 | train |
1,762 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 10 | Climate change has already altered CID profiles and resulted in shifts in the magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonality and spatial extent of associated indices | high | 2 | train |
1,763 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 11 | Changes in temperature-related CIDs such as mean temperatures, growing season length, extreme heat and frost have already occurred and many of these changes have been attributed to human activities | medium | 1 | train |
1,764 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 12 | Mean temperatures and heat extremes have emerged above natural variability in all land regions | high | 2 | train |
1,765 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 13 | In tropical regions, recent past temperature distributions have already shifted to a range different to that of the early 20th century | high | 2 | train |
1,766 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 14 | Ocean acidification and deoxygenation have already emerged over most of the global open ocean, as has reduction in Arctic sea ice | high | 2 | train |
1,767 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 17 | Increasing precipitation is projected to emerge before the middle of the century in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere | high | 2 | train |
1,768 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 18 | Decreasing precipitation will emerge in a very few regions (Mediterranean, Southern Africa, south-western Australia) (medium confidence) by mid-century | medium | 1 | train |
1,769 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 19 | The anthropogenic forced signal in near-coast relative sea level rise will emerge by mid-century RCP8.5 in all regions with coasts, except in the West Antarctic region where emergence is projected to occur before 2100 | medium | 1 | train |
1,770 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 20 | The signal of ocean acidification in the surface ocean is projected to emerge before 2050 in every ocean basin | high | 2 | train |
1,771 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 29 | Apart from a few regions with substantial land uplift, relative sea level rise is very likely to virtually certain (depending on the region) to continue in the 21st century, contributing to increased coastal flooding in most low-lying coastal areas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along most sandy coasts | high | 2 | train |
1,772 | AR6_WGI | 1,786 | 31 | Glaciers will continue to shrink and permafrost to thaw in all regions where they are present | high | 2 | train |
1,773 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 3 | Extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding will increase in many regions around the world | high | 2 | train |
1,774 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 4 | Increases in river flooding are also expected in Western and Central Europe and in polar regions (high confidence), most of Asia, Australasia, North America, the South American Monsoon region and South-Eastern South America | medium | 1 | train |
1,775 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 5 | Mean winds are projected to slightly decrease by 2050 over much of Europe, Asia and Western North America, and increase in many parts of South America except Patagonia, West and South Africa and the eastern Mediterranean | medium | 1 | train |
1,776 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 6 | Extratropical storms are expected to have a decreasing frequency but increasing intensity over the Mediterranean, increasing intensity over most of North America, and an increase in both intensity and frequency over most of Europe | medium | 1 | train |
1,777 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 7 | Enhanced convective conditions are expected in North America | medium | 1 | train |
1,778 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 8 | Tropical cyclones are expected to increase in intensity despite a decrease in frequency in most tropical regions | medium | 1 | train |
1,779 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 11 | Dangerous humid heat thresholds, such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Heat Index (NOAA HI) of 41°C, will be exceeded much more frequently under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than under SSP1-2.6 and will affect many more regions | high | 2 | train |
1,780 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 12 | In many tropical regions, the number of days per year where an HI of 41°C is exceeded will increase by more than 100 days relative to the recent past under SSP5-8.5, while this increase will be limited to less than 50 days under SSP1-2.6 | high | 2 | train |
1,781 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 16 | The frequency of the present-day 1-in- 100 year extreme sea level event (represented here by extreme total water level) is also projected to increase substantially in most regions | high | 2 | train |
1,782 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 22 | These include both mean and extreme heat, cold, wet and dry hazards; cryospheric hazards (snow cover, ice extent, permafrost); and oceanic hazards (marine heatwaves) | high | 2 | train |
1,783 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 23 | For some of these, a quantitative relation can be drawn | high | 2 | train |
1,784 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 25 | For other hazards (e.g., ice-sheet behaviour, glacier mass loss, global mean sea level rise, coastal floods and coastal erosion) the time and/or scenario dimensions remain critical and a simple relation with GWLs cannot be drawn (high confidence), but still quantitative estimates assuming specific time frames and/ or stabilized GWLs can be derived | medium | 1 | train |
1,785 | AR6_WGI | 1,787 | 26 | Model uncertainty challenges the link between specific GWLs and tipping points and irreversible behaviour, but their occurrence cannot be excluded and their chances increase with warming levels | medium | 1 | train |
1,786 | AR6_WGI | 1,806 | 20 | Section 6.5 notes that climate change will have a small burden on particulate matter (PM) pollution (medium confidence) while the main controlling factor in determining future concentrations will be future emissions policy for PM and their precursors | high | 2 | train |
1,787 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 5 | Over Asia, the CMIP5 multi-model mean response shows that solar radiation will decrease in South Asia and increase in East Asia | medium | 1 | train |
1,788 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 6 | Projected solar resources show an increasing trend throughout the 21st century in East Asia under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in CMIP5 simulations | medium | 1 | train |
1,789 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 8 | More sunshine is projected over Australia in winter and spring by the end of the century | medium | 1 | train |
1,790 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 9 | In Central and South America, there is medium confidence of increasing solar radiation over the Amazon basin and the northern part of South America | medium | 1 | train |
1,791 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 13 | Increasing radiation trends are also found over southern and eastern USA, and decreasing trends over North-Western North America (Wild et al., 2015; Losada Carreño et al., 2020), despite large differences between responses from regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) over southern and eastern USA | low | 0 | train |
1,792 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 20 | Mean annual temperatures have increased at a high rate since the mid-20th century, reaching 0.2°C–0.5°C per decade in some regions such as north, north- eastern, west and south-western Africa | high | 2 | train |
1,793 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 23 | A very likely warming with ranges between 0.5°C and 2.5°C is projected by the mid-century for all scenarios depending on the region | high | 2 | train |
1,794 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 25 | Extreme heat: Warm extremes have increased in most of the regions (high confidence), NEAF, SEAF and MDG | medium | 1 | train |
1,795 | AR6_WGI | 1,807 | 27 | A substantial increase in heatwave magnitude and frequency over most of the Africa domain is projected for even 2°C global warming | high | 2 | train |
1,796 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 11 | Heating degree days will have a substantial decrease by the end of the century for up to about one month under RCP8.5 in North and Southern Africa | high | 2 | train |
1,797 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 13 | Heatwaves and deadly heat stress and the frequency of exceedance of hot temperature thresholds (e.g., 35°C) will drastically increase by the end of the century | high | 2 | train |
1,798 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 17 | The Western Africa region features a gradient in which precipitation decreases in the west and increases in the east and increase is also projected over Eastern Africa | medium | 1 | train |
1,799 | AR6_WGI | 1,809 | 19 | A change in monsoon seasonality is also reported in Western Africa and Sahel | low | 0 | train |
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