gowitheflow/parallel-talks-deduplicated · Datasets at Hugging Face

english stringlengths 2 3.06k	non_english stringlengths 1 2.84k	language stringclasses 52 values
Don't do that!	Non fatelo!	en-it
Ask the question, wait till 10, count to 10 before you speak again, keep your face like this.	Faites la demande, attendez 10 secondes, compter jusqu'à 10 avant de parler à nouveau, gardez cette tête-là.	en-fr
(Laughter) They are grown-ups.	（笑声）他们是成年人，	en-zh-cn
They have all the power in this situation.	这种情况下，他们有决策的权力，	en-zh-cn
They can answer the question.	Pueden responder la pregunta.	en-es
Don't take it back.	别收回你的问题。	en-zh-cn
Which brings me to my favorite.	Il mio motto preferito è:	en-it
Don't ask, don't get.	qui ne demande rien n'a rien.	en-fr
If you don't make an actual ask, no one will give you actual money.	Senza un'effettiva richiesta, nessuno vi darà dei soldi.	en-it
And if no one gives you actual money, you actually can't do anything with it.	아무도 당신에게 돈을 주지 않는다면 당신이 그 어떤 일도 사실상 할 수 없죠.	en-ko
It's very simple -- don't ask, don't get.	É muito simples: não pede, não recebe.	en-pt-br
Listen, I would love to live in a world where we didn't have to ask people for money to do important work that will change people's lives.	J'aimerais vivre dans un monde où nous n'aurions pas à demander de l'argent pour effectuer l'important travail qui changera la vie des gens.	en-fr
I would love to not have to teach people how to make a case for the importance of feeding and housing and educating people.	我也想不教人如何提出理由才能说服别人粮食、住房以及教育的重要性。	en-zh-cn
But this is the world that we live in, and if we're committed to doing this work, and doing it well, we have to be as committed to the art of funding this work as we are to the art of executing it.	Mais c'est le monde où nous vivons. Si nous sommes déterminés à faire ce travail et à le faire bien, il faut être aussi dévoués à l'art du financement de ce travail qu'à l'art de l'exécution du travail.	en-fr
I'm going to repeat that, because I think it's really important.	정말 중요하다 생각해서 다시 한 번 말씀 드립니다.	en-ko
We have to be as committed to the art of funding our work as we are to the art of executing it.	我们必须拿出与完成工作本身同等的精力，致力于为其筹款。	en-zh-cn
And at its core, the art of funding the work means that we have to truly believe that the purpose and the privilege of our work is to provide people with an extraordinary way to use their wealth that will change people's lives.	Y, en esencia, el arte de financiar el trabajo significa que debemos creer realmente que el propósito y el privilegio de nuestro trabajo es proporcionar a las personas una forma extraordinaria de usar su riqueza que cambiará las vidas de la gente.	en-es
It's an opportunity, because at its core, that's what it is.	Es una oportunidad, porque en esencia, eso es lo que es.	en-es
And how great is that?	너무나 훌륭하지 않습니까?	en-ko
(Applause, cheers)	(Applausi, acclamazioni)	en-it
Chris Anderson: Nick Bostrom.	Chris Anderson: Nick Bostrom.	en-es
So, you have already given us so many crazy ideas out there.	خوب، تو تا الان نظرات عجیب و غریب زیادی داشته ای.	en-fa
I think a couple of decades ago, you made the case that we might all be living in a simulation, or perhaps probably were.	20年ほど前には我々がシミュレーションの中に生きている可能性を示し	en-ja
More recently, you've painted the most vivid examples of how artificial general intelligence could go horribly wrong.	Recentemente, ci hai illustrato vividi esempi di come con l'intelligenza artificiale potrebbe finire davvero male.	en-it
And now this year, you're about to publish a paper that presents something called the vulnerable world hypothesis.	Y este año estás a punto de publicar un ensayo sobre algo denominado la hipótesis del mundo vulnerable.	en-es
And our job this evening is to give the illustrated guide to that.	而今天晚上我们的任务就是来简析这篇文章。	en-zh-cn
What is that hypothesis?	Quelle est cette hypothèse ?	en-fr
Nick Bostrom: It's trying to think about a sort of structural feature of the current human condition.	نیک بوستروم: سعی می کند تا درباره نوعی از ویژگی های ساختاری وضعیت موجود انسان بیاندیشد.	en-fa
You like the urn metaphor, so I'm going to use that to explain it.	Vous aimez la métaphore de l'urne alors je vais l'utiliser pour expliquer.	en-fr
So picture a big urn filled with balls representing ideas, methods, possible technologies.	Imaginez une grande urne remplie de boules représentant des idées, des méthodes, des technologies possibles.	en-fr
You can think of the history of human creativity as the process of reaching into this urn and pulling out one ball after another, and the net effect so far has been hugely beneficial, right?	Vous pouvez voir l'histoire de la créativité humaine comme le fait de plonger la main dans l'urne et d'en sortir une boule après l'autre, et le résultat jusqu'ici a été extrêmement bénéfique.	en-fr
We've extracted a great many white balls, some various shades of gray, mixed blessings.	Bazısı hem faydalı hem zararlı olan çeşitli gri tonlarda oldukça fazla sayıda beyaz top çıkardık.	en-tr
We haven't so far pulled out the black ball -- a technology that invariably destroys the civilization that discovers it.	黒い玉はまだ取り出されていませんそれを取り出した文明は必然的に滅びるようなテクノロジーということです	en-ja
So the paper tries to think about what could such a black ball be.	黒い玉としてどのようなものが考えられるかを論文では探っています	en-ja
CA: So you define that ball as one that would inevitably bring about civilizational destruction.	(アンダーソン) 黒い玉は文明の崩壊を必然的にもたらすものと定義しているんですね	en-ja
NB: Unless we exit what I call the semi-anarchic default condition.	НБ: Пока мы не выйдем из своего стандартного состояния полуанархии,	en-ru
But sort of, by default.	Ma praticamente in automatico.	en-it
CA: So, you make the case compelling by showing some sort of counterexamples where you believe that so far we've actually got lucky, that we might have pulled out that death ball without even knowing it.	(アンダーソン) これまで我々は幸運だっただけでその「死の玉」をそうとは知らずに取り出していたかもしれないことを例を使って示されていますね	en-ja
So there's this quote, what's this quote?	Há uma citação; o que ela significa? [O progresso da mecânica trará a Bomba-H]	en-pt-br
NB: Well, I guess it's just meant to illustrate the difficulty of foreseeing what basic discoveries will lead to.	NB: Sanırım, bu sadece ana keşiflerin neye yol açacağını öngörmenin zorluğunu anlatmaya yarıyor.	en-tr
We just don't have that capability.	Nous n'avons simplement pas cette capacité.	en-fr
Because we have become quite good at pulling out balls, but we don't really have the ability to put the ball back into the urn, right.	Car nous sommes devenus bons dans l'extraction de boules mais nous n'avons pas la capacité de remettre la boule dans l'urne.	en-fr
We can invent, but we can't un-invent.	Felfedezni tudunk, visszacsinálni nem.	en-hu
So our strategy, such as it is, is to hope that there is no black ball in the urn.	Yani bizim stratejimiz, olduğu gibi, vazoda hiç siyah top olmadığını ummak.	en-tr
CA: So once it's out, it's out, and you can't put it back in, and you think we've been lucky.	CA: Quindi una volta fuori, è fuori, e non la si può rimettere dentro, e tu pensi che siamo stati fortunati.	en-it
So talk through a couple of these examples.	Cuéntanos un par de ejemplos.	en-es
You talk about different types of vulnerability.	Hablas de diferentes tipos de vulnerabilidad.	en-es
NB: So the easiest type to understand is a technology that just makes it very easy to cause massive amounts of destruction.	НБ: Самый простой тип для понимания — технология, которая сможет без особого труда вызвать много массовых разрушений.	en-ru
Synthetic biology might be a fecund source of that kind of black ball, but many other possible things we could -- think of geoengineering, really great, right?	Sentetik biyoloji, bu siyah topu bulmakta verimli bir kaynak olabilir ama iklim mühendisliğiyle ilgili düşünebileceğimiz -- diğer birçok mümkün şey de gerçekten harika, değil mi?	en-tr
We could combat global warming, but you don't want it to get too easy either, you don't want any random person and his grandmother to have the ability to radically alter the earth's climate.	Nous pourrions contrer le réchauffement climatique mais nous ne voulons pas que ce soit trop simple et qu'un individu quelconque et sa grand-mère aient la capacité d'altérer radicalement le climat terrestre.	en-fr
Or maybe lethal autonomous drones, massed-produced, mosquito-sized killer bot swarms.	Vagy ott vannak a halált okozó önvezető drónok, szériagyártású, szúnyogméretű, gyilkos robotrajok.	en-hu
Nanotechnology, artificial general intelligence.	ナノテクノロジーや汎用人工知能もそうです	en-ja
CA: You argue in the paper that it's a matter of luck that when we discovered that nuclear power could create a bomb, it might have been the case that you could have created a bomb with much easier resources, accessible to anyone.	CA: A tanulmányban úgy érvelsz, csak a szerencse kérdése volt, hogy amikor felfedeztük az atomenergiában rejlő bombát, az erőforrások nem voltak sokkal könnyebben elérhetőek, mindenki számára hozzáférhetőek a bombakészítéshez.	en-hu
NB: Yeah, so think back to the 1930s where for the first time we make some breakthroughs in nuclear physics, some genius figures out that it's possible to create a nuclear chain reaction and then realizes that this could lead to the bomb.	NB: Sí, creo que allá por los años 30, cuando por primera vez hicimos grandes avances en física nuclear, algunas figuras insignes expusieron que era posible crear reacciones nucleares en cadena para luego caer en la cuenta de que eso podría llevar a crear una bomba.	en-es
And we do some more work, it turns out that what you require to make a nuclear bomb is highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are very difficult materials to get.	Мы провели исследование. Выяснилось, что для создания атомной бомбы, содержащей в огромном количестве уран и плутоний, которые получить довольно трудно,	en-ru
You need ultracentrifuges, you need reactors, like, massive amounts of energy.	Se precisan ultracentrifugadoras, reactores para gigantescas cantidades de energía.	en-es
But suppose it had turned out instead there had been an easy way to unlock the energy of the atom.	Tegyük fel, ehelyett úgy alakul, hogy van könnyebb mód az atomenergia felszabadítására.	en-hu
That maybe by baking sand in the microwave oven or something like that you could have created a nuclear detonation.	可能是在微波炉里烤沙子诸如此类的简便方法，你就能很轻而易举地引发原子核爆。	en-zh-cn
So we know that that's physically impossible.	Bunun fiziksel olarak imkânsız olduğunu biliyoruz.	en-tr
But before you did the relevant physics how could you have known how it would turn out?	Ma prima di fare le ricerche come avremmo potuto sapere come sarebbe andata a finire?	en-it
CA: Although, couldn't you argue that for life to evolve on Earth that implied sort of stable environment, that if it was possible to create massive nuclear reactions relatively easy, the Earth would never have been stable, that we wouldn't be here at all.	КА: Согласитесь, для нормального развития жизни на Земле необходима стабильная среда. И если бы имелся более лёгкий способ получения крупных ядерных реакций, то стабильной среды на Земле бы не существовало, и нас здесь не было.	en-ru
NB: Yeah, unless there were something that is easy to do on purpose but that wouldn't happen by random chance.	NB: Sim, a não ser que isso envolvesse algo que é fácil fazer de propósito, mas que não poderia acontecer aleatoriamente.	en-pt-br
So, like things we can easily do, we can stack 10 blocks on top of one another, but in nature, you're not going to find, like, a stack of 10 blocks.	我们轻易能办到的，比如说将 10 个方块一个个叠起来，但在自然中，你不会看到一个 10 个方块为一摞的物体。	en-zh-cn
CA: OK, so this is probably the one that many of us worry about most, and yes, synthetic biology is perhaps the quickest route that we can foresee in our near future to get us here.	CA: Ora, questa è probabilmente la cosa per cui molti di noi si preoccupano di più, e sì, la biologia sintetica è forse la via più veloce che possiamo prevedere ci condurrà a questo nel prossimo futuro.	en-it
NB: Yeah, and so think about what that would have meant if, say, anybody by working in their kitchen for an afternoon could destroy a city.	NB：是的，现在我们想想那可能意味着什么？假设任何人在某个下午，在自己的厨房里捣腾就能毁掉一座城市。	en-zh-cn
It's hard to see how modern civilization as we know it could have survived that.	Трудно представить, как современная цивилизация в привычном нам виде сможет пережить подобное.	en-ru
Because in any population of a million people, there will always be some who would, for whatever reason, choose to use that destructive power.	Car dans toute population d'un million de personnes, il y aura toujours quelqu'un qui, peu importe la raison, choisira d'utiliser ce pouvoir destructeur.	en-fr
So if that apocalyptic residual would choose to destroy a city, or worse, then cities would get destroyed.	Si ce résidu apocalyptique décidait de détruire une ville, ou pire, des villes seraient détruites.	en-fr
CA: So here's another type of vulnerability.	(アンダーソン) こちらは別種の危険性ですが	en-ja
NB: Yeah, so in addition to these kind of obvious types of black balls that would just make it possible to blow up a lot of things, other types would act by creating bad incentives for humans to do things that are harmful.	ن.ب: بله، علاوه بر این نمونه های کاملا واضح از توپ های سیاه که می توانند چیزهای زیادی را منفجر کنند، انواع دیگر از راه ایجاد مشوق های بد عمل می کنند تا انسانها کارهای مضری انجام دهند.	en-fa
So, the Type-2a, we might call it that, is to think about some technology that incentivizes great powers to use their massive amounts of force to create destruction.	Então, o Tipo 2A, podemos chamá-la assim, é para pensar sobre alguma tecnologia que estimula que grandes poderes usem suas quantidades maciças de força para causar destruição.	en-pt-br
So, nuclear weapons were actually very close to this, right?	那么核武器其实很接近这个定义，对吧？	en-zh-cn
What we did, we spent over 10 trillion dollars to build 70,000 nuclear warheads and put them on hair-trigger alert.	کاری که ما کردیم، کمی بیش از ۱۰ تریلیون دلار هزینه کردیم تا حدود ۷۰،۰۰۰ کلاهک هسته ای بسازیم و آنها را آماده شلیک قرار دهیم.	en-fa
And there were several times during the Cold War we almost blew each other up.	E houve várias ocasiões na Guerra Fria em que quase explodimos um ao outro.	en-pt-br
It's not because a lot of people felt this would be a great idea, let's all spend 10 trillion dollars to blow ourselves up, but the incentives were such that we were finding ourselves -- this could have been worse.	这并不是因为人们认为炸飞彼此是一个很棒的想法，我们一起花个 10 万亿把大家炸个稀巴烂吧，但是背后的推动力是如此强大，我们发现—— 结果本可能会更惨重。假设第一次突袭安然无恙。	en-zh-cn
Then it might have been very tricky, in a crisis situation, to refrain from launching all their nuclear missiles.	Azt követően, krízishelyzetben, nehéz lett volna megállni az összes atomrakéta kilövését.	en-hu
If nothing else, because you would fear that the other side might do it.	Если не иначе, потому что вы боитесь, что это сделают с другой стороны.	en-ru
CA: Right, mutual assured destruction kept the Cold War relatively stable, without that, we might not be here now.	CA: De acuerdo, la destrucción mutua asegurada mantuvo la Guerra Fría relativamente estable, porque sin eso, podríamos no estar hoy aquí.	en-es
NB: It could have been more unstable than it was.	NB：冷战本可能比当时的局势更动荡。	en-zh-cn
And there could be other properties of technology.	E potrebbero esserci altre proprietà della tecnologia.	en-it
It could have been harder to have arms treaties, if instead of nuclear weapons there had been some smaller thing or something less distinctive.	Nükleer silahlar yerine daha küçük ya da daha az belirgin şeyler olsaydı silah anlaşmaları yapmak daha zor olurdu.	en-tr
CA: And as well as bad incentives for powerful actors, you also worry about bad incentives for all of us, in Type-2b here.	КА: Как и плохие мотивы влиятельных субъектов мира, вы также переживаете из-за плохих побуждений каждого из нас в типе 2б.	en-ru
NB: Yeah, so, here we might take the case of global warming.	NB: Então, aqui, nós podemos exemplificar com o aquecimento global.	en-pt-br
There are a lot of little conveniences that cause each one of us to do things that individually have no significant effect, right?	Каждый из нас пользуется в быту какими-то современными удобствами, использование которых не имеет значительных последствий, так?	en-ru
But if billions of people do it, cumulatively, it has a damaging effect.	Ama milyarlarca insan bunu yaparsa bunlar birikerek zararlı bir etkiye sahip olur.	en-tr
Now, global warming could have been a lot worse than it is.	Küresel ısınma şimdikinden çok daha kötü olabilirdi.	en-tr
So we have the climate sensitivity parameter, right.	ما مولفه حساسیت آب و هوا را داریم.	en-fa
It's a parameter that says how much warmer does it get if you emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases.	Ez mutatja meg, mennyivel lesz melegebb, ha bizonyos mennyiségű üvegházhatású gázt bocsájtunk ki.	en-hu
But, suppose that it had been the case that with the amount of greenhouse gases we emitted, instead of the temperature rising by, say, between three and 4.5 degrees by 2100, suppose it had been 15 degrees or 20 degrees.	我々が排出している温室効果ガスによって起きる 2100年の気温上昇が 3～4.5度というのではなく 15～20度だったとしたら	en-ja
Like, then we might have been in a very bad situation.	То есть мы можем оказаться в очень плохом положении.	en-ru
Or suppose that renewable energy had just been a lot harder to do.	Vagy tegyük fel, nehezebb lenne megújuló energiát előállítani.	en-hu
Or that there had been more fossil fuels in the ground.	Ou qu'il y ait eu plus de carburants fossiles.	en-fr
CA: Couldn't you argue that if in that case of -- if what we are doing today had resulted in 10 degrees difference in the time period that we could see, actually humanity would have got off its ass and done something about it.	КА: Утверждаете ли вы, что если тот образ жизни, который мы ведём сегодня со временем приведёт к видимой разнице в 10 градусов, то люди бы уже засуетились и сделали что-нибудь с этим.	en-ru
We're stupid, but we're not maybe that stupid.	Somos estúpidos, mas não tanto assim.	en-pt-br
Or maybe we are.	O tal vez sí.	en-es
NB: I wouldn't bet on it.	(ボストロム) 私はそれに賭けようとは思いません	en-ja
(Laughter) You could imagine other features.	(خنده حضار) می توانی ویژگی های دیگر را هم تصور کنی.	en-fa
So, right now, it's a little bit difficult to switch to renewables and stuff, right, but it can be done.	Ora come ora, è difficile la conversione alle rinnovabili eccetera, ma si può fare.	en-it
But it might just have been, with slightly different physics, it could have been much more expensive to do these things.	Cela aurait pu être que, avec une physique légèrement différente, il aurait été bien plus cher de faire ces choses-là.	en-fr
CA: And what's your view, Nick?	(アンダーソン) どう考えておられますか？	en-ja

Don't do that!

Non fatelo!

en-it

Ask the question, wait till 10, count to 10 before you speak again, keep your face like this.

Faites la demande, attendez 10 secondes, compter jusqu'à 10 avant de parler à nouveau, gardez cette tête-là.

en-fr

(Laughter) They are grown-ups.

（笑声）他们是成年人，

en-zh-cn

They have all the power in this situation.

这种情况下，他们有决策的权力，

en-zh-cn

They can answer the question.

Pueden responder la pregunta.

en-es

Don't take it back.

别收回你的问题。

en-zh-cn

Which brings me to my favorite.

Il mio motto preferito è:

en-it

Don't ask, don't get.

qui ne demande rien n'a rien.

en-fr

If you don't make an actual ask, no one will give you actual money.

Senza un'effettiva richiesta, nessuno vi darà dei soldi.

en-it

And if no one gives you actual money, you actually can't do anything with it.

아무도 당신에게 돈을 주지 않는다면 당신이 그 어떤 일도 사실상 할 수 없죠.

en-ko

It's very simple -- don't ask, don't get.

É muito simples: não pede, não recebe.

en-pt-br

Listen, I would love to live in a world where we didn't have to ask people for money to do important work that will change people's lives.

J'aimerais vivre dans un monde où nous n'aurions pas à demander de l'argent pour effectuer l'important travail qui changera la vie des gens.

en-fr

I would love to not have to teach people how to make a case for the importance of feeding and housing and educating people.

我也想不教人如何提出理由才能说服别人粮食、住房以及教育的重要性。

en-zh-cn

But this is the world that we live in, and if we're committed to doing this work, and doing it well, we have to be as committed to the art of funding this work as we are to the art of executing it.

Mais c'est le monde où nous vivons. Si nous sommes déterminés à faire ce travail et à le faire bien, il faut être aussi dévoués à l'art du financement de ce travail qu'à l'art de l'exécution du travail.

en-fr

I'm going to repeat that, because I think it's really important.

정말 중요하다 생각해서 다시 한 번 말씀 드립니다.

en-ko

We have to be as committed to the art of funding our work as we are to the art of executing it.

我们必须拿出与完成工作本身同等的精力，致力于为其筹款。

en-zh-cn

And at its core, the art of funding the work means that we have to truly believe that the purpose and the privilege of our work is to provide people with an extraordinary way to use their wealth that will change people's lives.

Y, en esencia, el arte de financiar el trabajo significa que debemos creer realmente que el propósito y el privilegio de nuestro trabajo es proporcionar a las personas una forma extraordinaria de usar su riqueza que cambiará las vidas de la gente.

en-es

It's an opportunity, because at its core, that's what it is.

Es una oportunidad, porque en esencia, eso es lo que es.

en-es

And how great is that?

너무나 훌륭하지 않습니까?

en-ko

(Applause, cheers)

(Applausi, acclamazioni)

en-it

Chris Anderson: Nick Bostrom.

en-es

So, you have already given us so many crazy ideas out there.

خوب، تو تا الان نظرات عجیب و غریب زیادی داشته ای.

en-fa

I think a couple of decades ago, you made the case that we might all be living in a simulation, or perhaps probably were.

20年ほど前には我々がシミュレーションの中に生きている可能性を示し

en-ja

More recently, you've painted the most vivid examples of how artificial general intelligence could go horribly wrong.

Recentemente, ci hai illustrato vividi esempi di come con l'intelligenza artificiale potrebbe finire davvero male.

en-it

And now this year, you're about to publish a paper that presents something called the vulnerable world hypothesis.

Y este año estás a punto de publicar un ensayo sobre algo denominado la hipótesis del mundo vulnerable.

en-es

And our job this evening is to give the illustrated guide to that.

而今天晚上我们的任务就是来简析这篇文章。

en-zh-cn

What is that hypothesis?

Quelle est cette hypothèse ?

en-fr

Nick Bostrom: It's trying to think about a sort of structural feature of the current human condition.

نیک بوستروم: سعی می کند تا درباره نوعی از ویژگی های ساختاری وضعیت موجود انسان بیاندیشد.

en-fa

You like the urn metaphor, so I'm going to use that to explain it.

Vous aimez la métaphore de l'urne alors je vais l'utiliser pour expliquer.

en-fr

So picture a big urn filled with balls representing ideas, methods, possible technologies.

Imaginez une grande urne remplie de boules représentant des idées, des méthodes, des technologies possibles.

en-fr

You can think of the history of human creativity as the process of reaching into this urn and pulling out one ball after another, and the net effect so far has been hugely beneficial, right?

Vous pouvez voir l'histoire de la créativité humaine comme le fait de plonger la main dans l'urne et d'en sortir une boule après l'autre, et le résultat jusqu'ici a été extrêmement bénéfique.

en-fr

We've extracted a great many white balls, some various shades of gray, mixed blessings.

Bazısı hem faydalı hem zararlı olan çeşitli gri tonlarda oldukça fazla sayıda beyaz top çıkardık.

en-tr

We haven't so far pulled out the black ball -- a technology that invariably destroys the civilization that discovers it.

黒い玉はまだ取り出されていませんそれを取り出した文明は必然的に滅びるようなテクノロジーということです

en-ja

So the paper tries to think about what could such a black ball be.

黒い玉としてどのようなものが考えられるかを論文では探っています

en-ja

CA: So you define that ball as one that would inevitably bring about civilizational destruction.

(アンダーソン) 黒い玉は文明の崩壊を必然的にもたらすものと定義しているんですね

en-ja

NB: Unless we exit what I call the semi-anarchic default condition.

НБ: Пока мы не выйдем из своего стандартного состояния полуанархии,

en-ru

But sort of, by default.

Ma praticamente in automatico.

en-it

CA: So, you make the case compelling by showing some sort of counterexamples where you believe that so far we've actually got lucky, that we might have pulled out that death ball without even knowing it.

(アンダーソン) これまで我々は幸運だっただけでその「死の玉」をそうとは知らずに取り出していたかもしれないことを例を使って示されていますね

en-ja

So there's this quote, what's this quote?

Há uma citação; o que ela significa? [O progresso da mecânica trará a Bomba-H]

en-pt-br

NB: Well, I guess it's just meant to illustrate the difficulty of foreseeing what basic discoveries will lead to.

NB: Sanırım, bu sadece ana keşiflerin neye yol açacağını öngörmenin zorluğunu anlatmaya yarıyor.

en-tr

We just don't have that capability.

Nous n'avons simplement pas cette capacité.

en-fr

Because we have become quite good at pulling out balls, but we don't really have the ability to put the ball back into the urn, right.

Car nous sommes devenus bons dans l'extraction de boules mais nous n'avons pas la capacité de remettre la boule dans l'urne.

en-fr

We can invent, but we can't un-invent.

Felfedezni tudunk, visszacsinálni nem.

en-hu

So our strategy, such as it is, is to hope that there is no black ball in the urn.

Yani bizim stratejimiz, olduğu gibi, vazoda hiç siyah top olmadığını ummak.

en-tr

CA: So once it's out, it's out, and you can't put it back in, and you think we've been lucky.

CA: Quindi una volta fuori, è fuori, e non la si può rimettere dentro, e tu pensi che siamo stati fortunati.

en-it

So talk through a couple of these examples.

Cuéntanos un par de ejemplos.

en-es

You talk about different types of vulnerability.

Hablas de diferentes tipos de vulnerabilidad.

en-es

NB: So the easiest type to understand is a technology that just makes it very easy to cause massive amounts of destruction.

НБ: Самый простой тип для понимания — технология, которая сможет без особого труда вызвать много массовых разрушений.

en-ru

Synthetic biology might be a fecund source of that kind of black ball, but many other possible things we could -- think of geoengineering, really great, right?

Sentetik biyoloji, bu siyah topu bulmakta verimli bir kaynak olabilir ama iklim mühendisliğiyle ilgili düşünebileceğimiz -- diğer birçok mümkün şey de gerçekten harika, değil mi?

en-tr

We could combat global warming, but you don't want it to get too easy either, you don't want any random person and his grandmother to have the ability to radically alter the earth's climate.

Nous pourrions contrer le réchauffement climatique mais nous ne voulons pas que ce soit trop simple et qu'un individu quelconque et sa grand-mère aient la capacité d'altérer radicalement le climat terrestre.

en-fr

Or maybe lethal autonomous drones, massed-produced, mosquito-sized killer bot swarms.

Vagy ott vannak a halált okozó önvezető drónok, szériagyártású, szúnyogméretű, gyilkos robotrajok.

en-hu

Nanotechnology, artificial general intelligence.

ナノテクノロジーや汎用人工知能もそうです

en-ja

CA: You argue in the paper that it's a matter of luck that when we discovered that nuclear power could create a bomb, it might have been the case that you could have created a bomb with much easier resources, accessible to anyone.

CA: A tanulmányban úgy érvelsz, csak a szerencse kérdése volt, hogy amikor felfedeztük az atomenergiában rejlő bombát, az erőforrások nem voltak sokkal könnyebben elérhetőek, mindenki számára hozzáférhetőek a bombakészítéshez.

en-hu

NB: Yeah, so think back to the 1930s where for the first time we make some breakthroughs in nuclear physics, some genius figures out that it's possible to create a nuclear chain reaction and then realizes that this could lead to the bomb.

NB: Sí, creo que allá por los años 30, cuando por primera vez hicimos grandes avances en física nuclear, algunas figuras insignes expusieron que era posible crear reacciones nucleares en cadena para luego caer en la cuenta de que eso podría llevar a crear una bomba.

en-es

And we do some more work, it turns out that what you require to make a nuclear bomb is highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are very difficult materials to get.

Мы провели исследование. Выяснилось, что для создания атомной бомбы, содержащей в огромном количестве уран и плутоний, которые получить довольно трудно,

en-ru

You need ultracentrifuges, you need reactors, like, massive amounts of energy.

Se precisan ultracentrifugadoras, reactores para gigantescas cantidades de energía.

en-es

But suppose it had turned out instead there had been an easy way to unlock the energy of the atom.

Tegyük fel, ehelyett úgy alakul, hogy van könnyebb mód az atomenergia felszabadítására.

en-hu

That maybe by baking sand in the microwave oven or something like that you could have created a nuclear detonation.

可能是在微波炉里烤沙子诸如此类的简便方法，你就能很轻而易举地引发原子核爆。

en-zh-cn

So we know that that's physically impossible.

Bunun fiziksel olarak imkânsız olduğunu biliyoruz.

en-tr

But before you did the relevant physics how could you have known how it would turn out?

Ma prima di fare le ricerche come avremmo potuto sapere come sarebbe andata a finire?

en-it

CA: Although, couldn't you argue that for life to evolve on Earth that implied sort of stable environment, that if it was possible to create massive nuclear reactions relatively easy, the Earth would never have been stable, that we wouldn't be here at all.

КА: Согласитесь, для нормального развития жизни на Земле необходима стабильная среда. И если бы имелся более лёгкий способ получения крупных ядерных реакций, то стабильной среды на Земле бы не существовало, и нас здесь не было.

en-ru

NB: Yeah, unless there were something that is easy to do on purpose but that wouldn't happen by random chance.

NB: Sim, a não ser que isso envolvesse algo que é fácil fazer de propósito, mas que não poderia acontecer aleatoriamente.

en-pt-br

So, like things we can easily do, we can stack 10 blocks on top of one another, but in nature, you're not going to find, like, a stack of 10 blocks.

我们轻易能办到的，比如说将 10 个方块一个个叠起来，但在自然中，你不会看到一个 10 个方块为一摞的物体。

en-zh-cn

CA: OK, so this is probably the one that many of us worry about most, and yes, synthetic biology is perhaps the quickest route that we can foresee in our near future to get us here.

CA: Ora, questa è probabilmente la cosa per cui molti di noi si preoccupano di più, e sì, la biologia sintetica è forse la via più veloce che possiamo prevedere ci condurrà a questo nel prossimo futuro.

en-it

NB: Yeah, and so think about what that would have meant if, say, anybody by working in their kitchen for an afternoon could destroy a city.

NB：是的，现在我们想想那可能意味着什么？假设任何人在某个下午，在自己的厨房里捣腾就能毁掉一座城市。

en-zh-cn

It's hard to see how modern civilization as we know it could have survived that.

Трудно представить, как современная цивилизация в привычном нам виде сможет пережить подобное.

en-ru

Because in any population of a million people, there will always be some who would, for whatever reason, choose to use that destructive power.

Car dans toute population d'un million de personnes, il y aura toujours quelqu'un qui, peu importe la raison, choisira d'utiliser ce pouvoir destructeur.

en-fr

So if that apocalyptic residual would choose to destroy a city, or worse, then cities would get destroyed.

Si ce résidu apocalyptique décidait de détruire une ville, ou pire, des villes seraient détruites.

en-fr

CA: So here's another type of vulnerability.

(アンダーソン) こちらは別種の危険性ですが

en-ja

NB: Yeah, so in addition to these kind of obvious types of black balls that would just make it possible to blow up a lot of things, other types would act by creating bad incentives for humans to do things that are harmful.

ن.ب: بله، علاوه بر این نمونه های کاملا واضح از توپ های سیاه که می توانند چیزهای زیادی را منفجر کنند، انواع دیگر از راه ایجاد مشوق های بد عمل می کنند تا انسانها کارهای مضری انجام دهند.

en-fa

So, the Type-2a, we might call it that, is to think about some technology that incentivizes great powers to use their massive amounts of force to create destruction.

Então, o Tipo 2A, podemos chamá-la assim, é para pensar sobre alguma tecnologia que estimula que grandes poderes usem suas quantidades maciças de força para causar destruição.

en-pt-br

So, nuclear weapons were actually very close to this, right?

那么核武器其实很接近这个定义，对吧？

en-zh-cn

What we did, we spent over 10 trillion dollars to build 70,000 nuclear warheads and put them on hair-trigger alert.

کاری که ما کردیم، کمی بیش از ۱۰ تریلیون دلار هزینه کردیم تا حدود ۷۰،۰۰۰ کلاهک هسته ای بسازیم و آنها را آماده شلیک قرار دهیم.

en-fa

And there were several times during the Cold War we almost blew each other up.

E houve várias ocasiões na Guerra Fria em que quase explodimos um ao outro.

en-pt-br

It's not because a lot of people felt this would be a great idea, let's all spend 10 trillion dollars to blow ourselves up, but the incentives were such that we were finding ourselves -- this could have been worse.

这并不是因为人们认为炸飞彼此是一个很棒的想法，我们一起花个 10 万亿把大家炸个稀巴烂吧，但是背后的推动力是如此强大，我们发现—— 结果本可能会更惨重。假设第一次突袭安然无恙。

en-zh-cn

Then it might have been very tricky, in a crisis situation, to refrain from launching all their nuclear missiles.

Azt követően, krízishelyzetben, nehéz lett volna megállni az összes atomrakéta kilövését.

en-hu

If nothing else, because you would fear that the other side might do it.

Если не иначе, потому что вы боитесь, что это сделают с другой стороны.

en-ru

CA: Right, mutual assured destruction kept the Cold War relatively stable, without that, we might not be here now.

CA: De acuerdo, la destrucción mutua asegurada mantuvo la Guerra Fría relativamente estable, porque sin eso, podríamos no estar hoy aquí.

en-es

NB: It could have been more unstable than it was.

NB：冷战本可能比当时的局势更动荡。

en-zh-cn

And there could be other properties of technology.

E potrebbero esserci altre proprietà della tecnologia.

en-it

It could have been harder to have arms treaties, if instead of nuclear weapons there had been some smaller thing or something less distinctive.

Nükleer silahlar yerine daha küçük ya da daha az belirgin şeyler olsaydı silah anlaşmaları yapmak daha zor olurdu.

en-tr

CA: And as well as bad incentives for powerful actors, you also worry about bad incentives for all of us, in Type-2b here.

КА: Как и плохие мотивы влиятельных субъектов мира, вы также переживаете из-за плохих побуждений каждого из нас в типе 2б.

en-ru

NB: Yeah, so, here we might take the case of global warming.

NB: Então, aqui, nós podemos exemplificar com o aquecimento global.

en-pt-br

There are a lot of little conveniences that cause each one of us to do things that individually have no significant effect, right?

Каждый из нас пользуется в быту какими-то современными удобствами, использование которых не имеет значительных последствий, так?

en-ru

But if billions of people do it, cumulatively, it has a damaging effect.

Ama milyarlarca insan bunu yaparsa bunlar birikerek zararlı bir etkiye sahip olur.

en-tr

Now, global warming could have been a lot worse than it is.

Küresel ısınma şimdikinden çok daha kötü olabilirdi.

en-tr

So we have the climate sensitivity parameter, right.

ما مولفه حساسیت آب و هوا را داریم.

en-fa

It's a parameter that says how much warmer does it get if you emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases.

Ez mutatja meg, mennyivel lesz melegebb, ha bizonyos mennyiségű üvegházhatású gázt bocsájtunk ki.

en-hu

But, suppose that it had been the case that with the amount of greenhouse gases we emitted, instead of the temperature rising by, say, between three and 4.5 degrees by 2100, suppose it had been 15 degrees or 20 degrees.

我々が排出している温室効果ガスによって起きる 2100年の気温上昇が 3～4.5度というのではなく 15～20度だったとしたら

en-ja

Like, then we might have been in a very bad situation.

То есть мы можем оказаться в очень плохом положении.

en-ru

Or suppose that renewable energy had just been a lot harder to do.

Vagy tegyük fel, nehezebb lenne megújuló energiát előállítani.

en-hu

Or that there had been more fossil fuels in the ground.

Ou qu'il y ait eu plus de carburants fossiles.

en-fr

CA: Couldn't you argue that if in that case of -- if what we are doing today had resulted in 10 degrees difference in the time period that we could see, actually humanity would have got off its ass and done something about it.

КА: Утверждаете ли вы, что если тот образ жизни, который мы ведём сегодня со временем приведёт к видимой разнице в 10 градусов, то люди бы уже засуетились и сделали что-нибудь с этим.

en-ru

We're stupid, but we're not maybe that stupid.

Somos estúpidos, mas não tanto assim.

en-pt-br

Or maybe we are.

O tal vez sí.

en-es

NB: I wouldn't bet on it.

(ボストロム) 私はそれに賭けようとは思いません

en-ja

(Laughter) You could imagine other features.

(خنده حضار) می توانی ویژگی های دیگر را هم تصور کنی.

en-fa

So, right now, it's a little bit difficult to switch to renewables and stuff, right, but it can be done.

Ora come ora, è difficile la conversione alle rinnovabili eccetera, ma si può fare.

en-it

But it might just have been, with slightly different physics, it could have been much more expensive to do these things.

Cela aurait pu être que, avec une physique légèrement différente, il aurait été bien plus cher de faire ces choses-là.

en-fr

CA: And what's your view, Nick?

(アンダーソン) どう考えておられますか？

en-ja