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The UK government will have to raise taxes or rein in spending if it wants to avoid breaking its "golden rule", a report suggests. |
The rule states that the government can borrow cash only to invest, and not to finance its spending projects. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that taxes need to rise by about £10bn if state finances are to be put in order. The Treasury said its plans were on track and funded until 2008. According to NIESR, if the government's current economic cycle runs until March 2006 then it is "unlikely" the golden rule will be met. Should the cycle end a year earlier, then the chances improve to "50/50". Either way, fiscal tightening is needed, NIESR said. |
The report is the latest to call into question the viability of government spending projections. Earlier this month, accountancy firm Ernst & Young said that Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown's forecasts for tax revenues were too optimistic. |
It claimed revenues were likely to be £6bn below estimates by the end of the tax year despite the economy growing in line with forecasts. A Treasury spokesperson dismissed the latest claims, saying it was "on track to meeting spending rules and the golden rule in the current cycle and beyond". "Spending plans have been set out until 2008 and they are fully affordable." Other than its warning on possible tax hikes, the NIESR report was optimistic about the state of the UK and global economy. |
It said the recent record-busting surge in oil prices would have a limited effect on worldwide expansion, saying that if anything the "world economy will continue to grow strongly". Global gross domestic product (GDP) is tipped to be 4.1% this year, dipping to 4% in 2005, before picking up again to 4.2% in 2006. The US will continue to drive expansion until 2006, albeit at a slightly slower rate, as will be the case in Japan. Hinting at better times for UK exporters, NIESR said the euro zone "is expected to pick up speed". |
Growth in Britain also is set to accelerate, it forecast. "Despite weak growth in the third quarter, the forces sustaining the upswing remain intact and the economy will expand robustly in 2005 and 2006," NIESR said, adding that "the economy will become better balanced over the next two years as exports stage a recovery". GDP is expected at 3.2% in 2004, and 2.8% in both 2005 and 2006. The main cloud on the horizon, NIESR said, was the UK's much analysed and fretted over property market. |
WorldCom director admits lying |
The former chief financial officer at US telecoms firm WorldCom has admitted before a New York court that he used to lie to fellow board members. |
Speaking at the trial of his former boss Bernard Ebbers, Scott Sullivan said he lied to the board to cover up the hole in WorldCom's finances. Mr Ebbers is on trial for fraud and conspiracy in relation to WorldCom's collapse in 2002. He pleads not guilty. The firm had been overstating its accounts by $11bn (£8.5bn). Mr Sullivan, 42, has already pleaded guilty to fraud and will be sentenced following Mr Ebbers' trial, where he is appearing as a prosecution witness. Mr Ebbers, 63, has always insisted that he was unaware of any hidden shortfalls in WorldCom's finances. |
In the New York court on Wednesday, Mr Ebbers' lawyer Reid Weingarten asked Mr Sullivan: "If you believe something is in your interest, you are willing and able to lie to accomplish it, isn't that right?" |
"On that date, yes. I was lying," replied Mr Sullivan. Mr Weingarten has suggested that Mr Sullivan is implicating Mr Ebbers only to win a lighter sentence, something Mr Sullivan denies. Mr Sullivan also rejects a suggestion that he had once told fellow WorldCom board member Bert Roberts that Mr Ebbers was unaware of the accounting fraud at WorldCom. The trial of Mr Ebbers is now into its third week. |
Under 23 hours of questioning from a federal prosecutor, Mr Sullivan has previously told the court that he repeatedly warned Mr Ebbers that falsifying the books would be the only way to meet Wall Street revenue and earnings expectations. Mr Sullivan claims that Mr Ebbers refused to stop the fraud. Mr Ebbers could face a sentence of 85 years if convicted of all the charges he is facing. WorldCom's problems appear to have begun with the collapse of the dotcom boom which cut its business from internet companies. Prosecutors allege that the company's top executives responded by orchestrating massive fraud over a two-year period. WorldCom emerged from bankruptcy protection in 2004, and is now known as MCI. |
Call centre users 'lose patience' |
Customers trying to get through to call centres are getting impatient and quicker to hang up, a survey suggests. |
Once past the welcome message, callers on average hang up after just 65 seconds of listening to canned music. The drop in patience comes as the number of calls to call centres is growing at a rate of 20% every year. "Customers are getting used to the idea of an 'always available' society," says Cara Diemont of IT firm Dimension Data, which commissioned the survey. However, call centres also saw a sharp increase of customers simply abandoning calls, she says, from just over 5% in 2003 to a record 13.3% during last year. When automated phone message systems are taken out of the equation, where customers have to pick their way through multiple options and messages, the number of abandoned calls is even higher - a sixth of all callers give up rather than wait. One possible reason for the lack in patience, Ms Diemont says, is the fact that more customers are calling 'on the move' using their mobile phones. |
The surge in customers trying to get through to call centres is also a reflection of the centres' growing range of tasks. "Once a call centre may have looked after mortgages, now its agents may also be responsible for credit cards, insurance and current accounts," Ms Diemont says. Problems are occurring because increased responsibility is not going hand-in-hand with more training, the survey found. |
In what Dimension Data calls an "alarming development", the average induction time for a call centre worker fell last year from 36 to just 21 days, leaving "agents not equipped to deal with customers". This, Ms Diemont warns, is "scary" and not good for the bottom line either. Poor training frustrates both call centre workers and customers. As a result, call centres have a high "churn rate", with nearly a quarter of workers throwing in the towel every year, which in turn forces companies to pay for training new staff. Resolution rates - the number of calls where a customer's query is resolved to mutual satisfaction - are running at just 50%. When the query is passed on to a second or third person - a specialist or manager - rates rise to about 70%, but that is still well below the industry target of an 85% resolution rate. |
Suggestions that "outsourcing" - relocating call centres to low-cost countries like India or South Africa - is to blame are wrong, Ms Diemont says. |
There are "no big differences in wait time and call resolution" between call centres based in Europe or North America and those in developing countries around the world. "You can make call centres perform anywhere if you have good management and the right processes in place," she says. However, companies that decide to "offshore" their operations are driven not just by cost considerations. Only 42% of them say that saving money is the main consideration when closing domestic call centre operations. Half of them argue that workers in other countries offer better skills for the money. But not everybody believes that outsourcing and offshoring are the solution. Nearly two-thirds of all firms polled for the survey have no plans to offshore their call centres. They give three key reasons for not making the move: |
- call centre operations are part of their business "core function", |
- they are worried about the risk of going abroad, |
- they fear that they will damage their brand if they join the offshoring drive. The survey was conducted by Sunovate on behalf of Dimension Data, and is based on in-depth questionnaires of 166 call centres in 24 countries and five continents. What are your experiences with call centres? Are you happy to listen to Vivaldi or Greensleeves, or do you want an immediate response? And if you work in a call centre: did your training prepare you for your job? |
Novartis hits acquisition trail |
Swiss drugmaker Novartis has announced 5.65bn euros ($7.4bn; £3.9bn) of purchases to make its Sandoz unit the world's biggest generic drug producer. |
Novartis, which last month forecast record sales for 2005, said it had bought all of Germany's Hexal. It also acquired 67.7% of Hexal's US affiliate Eon Labs, and offered to buy the remaining shares for $31 each. Novartis said that it would be able to make cost savings of about $200m a year following the acquisitions. Novartis' shares rose 1% to 57.85 Swiss francs in early trading. |
The deal will see Novartis' Sandoz business overtake Israel's Teva Pharmaceuticals as the world's biggest maker of generics. Based on 2004 figures the newly merged producer would have sales of more than $5bn, the company estimated. Novartis said that it would merge a number of departments, adding that there may be job cuts. |
"The strong growth outlook for Sandoz, which will create jobs, is expected to partially compensate for necessary reductions in the work force," the firm said in a statement. Generic drugs are chemically identical to their more expensive branded rivals. Producers such as Sandoz can copy the branded products usually after their patent protection expires and can sell them more cheaply as they do not have to pay research and development cost. |
There are more than 150 generic drugmakers worldwide and analysts have predicted consolidation in a market that they call fragmented. However, not all analysts were initially convinced about the deal. "This is a very expensive acquisition," Birgit Kuhlhoff, from Sal Oppenheim investment bank, told Reuters. "I find it strange that they are making acquisitions in exactly those markets where they suffered price pressure." |
Economy 'strong' in election year |
UK businesses are set to prosper during the next few months - but this could trigger more interest rate rises, according to a report. |
Optimism is at its highest since 1997 and business will reap the benefits of a continuing rise in public spending, say researchers at BDO Stoy Hayward. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold this week - but they could go up later in the year. Rates are likely to rise after the anticipated general election in May. The BDO optimism index - a leading indicator of GDP growth two quarters ahead edged up in January to 102.5, from 102.2 in October. The rise is due, in part, to an increase in public spending and increased merger and acquisition activity. |
The only thing blighting business optimism this year will be uncertainties associated with the general election, BDO said. Its BDO's output index - which predicts GDP movements a quarter in advance - remained at 100.8 for January, implying GDP growth at 2.9% in the second quarter of 2005. However, the output index is being held back by recent interest rate rises, sterling's strength against the dollar and high oil prices, the group noted. Its inflation index, which has risen continuously over the last 8 months, climbed to 110.0 in January from 108.0 in October last year. "The UK is looking strong going into the general election, but businesses need to prepare themselves for a jolt ahead as the Bank of England reacts to growth and inflationary pressures," said Peter Hemington, partner at BDO Stoy Hayward. "Growth will probably slow by the end of 2005 and it is likely that we will see higher interest rates or a sharp drop in demand for products and services." |
Sluggish economy hits German jobs |
The number of people out of work in Europe's largest economy has risen for the tenth straight month as growth remains stubbornly slow. |
German unemployment rose 7,000 in November to 4.464 million people, or 10.8% of the workforce. The seasonally adjusted rise showed a smaller rise than expected, as government measures to encourage job creation began to take effect. But officials said stagnant growth was still stifling the job market. "There are clear signs of a revival in domestic demand," said Frank-Juergen Weise, head of the Federal Labour Agency, in a statement. "But growth of 0.1%... in the third quarter is still insufficient to deliver positive momentum to the labour market." High oil prices and the soaring euro - which damages the competitiveness of exporters - were also having a negative effect, he said. The brunt of the unemployment is still being felt in the eastern part of Germany, where the rate is 18.8%. |
With unemployment stuck above 4 million for years, the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has put job creation at the top of the agenda. A controversial package of measures to shake up incentives to get back to work, paid for by cutting some cherished benefits, has sparked anger among some German workers. Strikes in a number of industries, notably among the country's iconic carmakers, have demonstrated the displeasure - as well as fears about further job losses as outsourcing takes hold. Among the new initiatives are the so-called "one-euro jobs" which top up unemployment benefit. The scheme's formal launch is January, but hirings for these positions are already taking place and affecting the unemployment statistics, economists said. "The deterioration of the labour market does not come as a surprise," said Isabelle Kronawitter at Hypovereinsbank. "Job creation measures probably prevented a stronger increase in the seasonally adjusted numbers." |
Sales 'fail to boost High Street' |
The January sales have failed to help the UK High Street recover from a poor Christmas season, a survey has found. |
Stores received a boost from bargain hunters but trading then reverted to December levels, the British Retail Consortium and accountants KPMG said. Sales in what is traditionally a strong month rose by 0.5% on a like-for-like basis, compared with a year earlier. Consumers remain cautious over buying big-ticket items like furniture, said BRC director general Kevin Hawkins. Higher interest rates and uncertainty over the housing market continue to take their toll on the retail sector, the BRC said. But clothing and footwear sales were said to be generally better than December, while department stores also had a good month. |
In the three-months to January, like-for-like sales showed a growth rate of -0.1%, the same as in the three months to December, the BRC said. "Following a relatively strong New Year's bank holiday, trading then took a downward turn," said Mr Hawkins. "Even extending some promotions and discounts and the pay-day boost later in the month could not tempt customers." The previous BRC survey found Christmas 2004 was the worst for 10 years for retailers. And according to Office for National Statistics data, sales in December failed to meet expectations and by some counts were the worst since 1981. |
Call to save manufacturing jobs |
The Trades Union Congress (TUC) is calling on the government to stem job losses in manufacturing firms by reviewing the help it gives companies. |
The TUC said in its submission before the Budget that action is needed because of 105,000 jobs lost from the sector over the last year. It calls for better pensions, child care provision and decent wages. The 36-page submission also urges the government to examine support other European countries provide to industry. TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber called for "a commitment to policies that will make a real difference to the lives of working people." |
"Greater investment in childcare strategies and the people delivering that childcare will increases the options available to working parents," he said. "A commitment to our public services and manufacturing sector ensures that we can continue to compete on a global level and deliver the frontline services that this country needs." He also called for "practical measures" to help pensioners, especially women who he said "are most likely to retire in poverty". The submission also calls for decent wages and training for people working in the manufacturing sector. |
Bat spit drug firm goes to market |
A German firm whose main product is derived from the saliva of the vampire bat is looking to raise more than 70m euros ($91m; £49m) on the stock market. |
The firm, Paion, said that it hoped to sell 5 million shares - a third of the firm - for 11-14 euros a share. Its main drug, desmoteplase, is based on a protein in the bat's saliva. The protein stops blood from clotting - which helps the bat to drink from its victims, but could also be used to help stroke sufferers. The company's shares go on sale later this week, and are scheduled to start trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on 10 February. If the final price is at the top of the range, the company could be valued at as much as 200m euros. The money raised will be spent largely on developing the company's other drugs, since desmoteplase has already been licensed to one manufacturer, Forest Laboratories. |
Firms pump billions into pensions |
Employers have spent billions of pounds propping up their final salary pensions over the past year, research suggests. |
A survey of 280 schemes by Incomes Data Services' (IDS) said employer contributions had increased from £5.5bn to £8.2bn a year, a rise of 49.7%. Companies facing the biggest deficits had raised their pension contributions by 100% or more, IDS said. Many firms are struggling to keep this type of scheme open, because of rising costs and increased liabilities. A final salary scheme, also known as a defined benefit scheme, promises to pay a pension related to the salary the scheme member is earning when they retire. |
The rising cost of maintaining such schemes has led many employers to replace final salary schemes with money purchase, or defined contribution, schemes. These are less risky for employers. Under money purchase schemes, employees pay into a pension fund which is used to buy an annuity - a policy which pays out an income until death - on retirement. |
IDS said there were some schemes in good health. |
But, in many cases, firms had been forced to top up funds to tackle "yawning deficits". The level of contributions paid by employers has increased gradually since the late 1990s. In 1998/99, for example, contributions rose by 4.7% and in 2002/03 by 8.6%. In contrast, between 1996 and 1998, some employers cut their contribution levels. Helen Sudell, editor of the IDS Pensions Service, said the rise in contributions was "staggering" and the highest ever recorded by IDS. "We have warned before that the widespread closure of final salary schemes to new entrants is just the beginning of a much bigger movement away from paternalistic provision," said Ms Sudell. "With figures like this there can be little doubt that many employers will have to reduce future benefits at some point for those staff still in these schemes." |
UK homes hit £3.3 trillion total |
The value of the UK's housing stock reached the £3.3 trillion mark in 2004 - triple the value 10 years earlier, a report indicates. |
Research from Halifax, the country's biggest mortgage lender, suggests the value of private housing stock is continuing to rise steadily. All regions saw at least a doubling in their assets during the past decade. But Northern Ireland led the way with a 262% rise, while Scotland saw the smallest increase of just 112%. |
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