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Output in the period grew just 0.1%, an annual rate of 0.3%. Exports - the usual engine of recovery - faltered, while domestic demand stayed subdued and corporate investment also fell short. The growth falls well short of expectations, but does mark a sixth straight quarter of expansion. |
The economy had stagnated throughout the 1990s, experiencing only brief spurts of expansion amid long periods in the doldrums. One result was deflation - prices falling rather than rising - which made Japanese shoppers cautious and kept them from spending. |
The effect was to leave the economy more dependent than ever on exports for its recent recovery. But high oil prices have knocked 0.2% off the growth rate, while the falling dollar means products shipped to the US are becoming relatively more expensive. |
The performance for the third quarter marks a sharp downturn from earlier in the year. The first quarter showed annual growth of 6.3%, with the second showing 1.1%, and economists had been predicting as much as 2% this time around. "Exports slowed while capital spending became weaker," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at UBS Securities in Tokyo. "Personal consumption looks good, but it was mainly due to temporary factors such as the Olympics. "The amber light is flashing." The government may now find it more difficult to raise taxes, a policy it will have to implement when the economy picks up to help deal with Japan's massive public debt. |
Brewers' profits lose their fizz |
Heineken and Carlsberg, two of the world's largest brewers, have reported falling profits after beer sales in western Europe fell flat. |
Dutch firm Heineken saw its annual profits drop 33% and warned that earnings in 2005 may also slide. Danish brewer Carlsberg suffered a 3% fall in profits due to waning demand and increased marketing costs. Both are looking to Russia and China to provide future growth as western European markets are largely mature. |
Heineken's net income fell to 537m euros ($701m; £371m) during 2004, from 798m euro a year ago. It blamed weak demand in western Europe and currency losses. It had warned in September that the weakening US dollar, which has cut the value of foreign sales, would knock 125m euros off its operating profits. Despite the dip in profits, Heineken's sales have been improving and total revenue for the year was 10bn euros, up 8.1% from 9.26bn euros in 2003. Heineken said it now plans to invest 100m euros in "aggressive" and "high-impact" marketing in Europe and the US in 2005. Heineken, which also owns the Amstel and Murphy's stout brands, said it would also seek to cut costs. This may involve closing down breweries. |
Heineken increased its dividend payment by 25% to 40 euro cents, but warned that the continued impact of a weaker dollar and an increased marketing spend may lead to a drop in 2005 net profit. |
Carlsberg, the world's fifth-largest brewer, saw annual pre-tax profits fall to 3.4bn Danish kroner (456m euros). Its beer sales have been affected by the sluggish European economy and by the banning of smoking in pubs in several European countries. Nevertheless, total sales increased 4% to 36bn kroner, thanks to strong sales of Carlsberg lager in Russia and Poland. Carlsberg is more optimistic than Heineken about 2005, projecting a 15% rise in net profits for the year. However, it also plans to cut 200 jobs in Sweden, where sales have been hit by demand for cheap, imported brands. "We remain cautious about the medium-to-long term outlook for revenue growth across western Europe for a host of economic, social and structural reasons," investment bank Merrill Lynch said of Carlsberg. |
Russia WTO talks 'make progress' |
Talks on Russia's proposed membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have been "making good progress" say those behind the negotiations. |
But the chairman of the working party, Ambassador Stefan Johannesson of Iceland, warned that there was "still a lot of work has to be done". His comments came as President George W Bush said the US backed Russian entry. But he said for Russia to make progress the government must "renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law". His comments come three days before he is due to meet President Vladimir Putin. |
Russia has been waiting for a decade to join the WTO and hopes to finally become a member by early 2006. A decision could be reached in December, when the WTO's 148 current members gather for a summit in Hong Kong. That would allow an earliest date for membership of January 2006, if the Hong Kong summit gave its approval. While pinpointing several areas in which there are difficulties in the bilateral and multilateral work with Russia, the US said the meeting was "much more efficient than we've seen for some time". And Australia said it was "one of the best (meetings) we can recall in terms of substance". Mr Johannesson also said progress "on the bilateral market access side is accelerating". Sticking points to membership have included limits on foreign ownership in the telecommunications and life insurance businesses, as well as issues surrounding counterfeiting, piracy, and data protection. Some WTO members also dislike Russia's energy price subsidies, which competitors say give Russian businesses an unfair advantage. |
India's rupee hits five-year high |
India's rupee has hit a five-year high after Standard & Poor's (S&P) raised the country's foreign currency rating. |
The rupee climbed to 43.305 per US dollar on Thursday, up from a close of 43.41. The currency has gained almost 1% in the past three sessions. S&P, which rates borrowers' creditworthiness, lifted India's rating by one notch to 'BB+'. With Indian assets now seen as less of a gamble, more cash is expected to flow into its markets, buoying the rupee. |
"The upgrade is positive and basically people will use it as an excuse to come back to India," said Bhanu Baweja, a strategist at UBS. "Money has moved out from India in the first two or three weeks of January into other markets like Korea and Thailand and this upgrade should lead to a reversal." India's foreign currency rating is now one notch below investment grade, which starts at 'BBB-'. The increase has put it on the same level as Romania, Egypt and El Salvador, and one level below Russia. |
Dollar drops on reserves concerns |
The US dollar has dropped against major currencies on concerns that central banks may cut the amount of dollars they hold in their foreign reserves. |
Comments by South Korea's central bank at the end of last week have sparked the recent round of dollar declines. South Korea, which has about $200bn in foreign reserves, said it plans instead to boost holdings of currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar. Analysts reckon that other nations may follow suit and now ditch the dollar. At 1300 GMT, the euro was up 0.9% on the day at 1.3187 euros per US dollar. The British pound had added 0.5% to break through the $1.90 level, while the dollar had fallen by 1.3% against the Japanese yen to trade at 104.16 yen. |
At the start of the year, the US currency, which had lost 7% against the euro in the final three months of 2004 and had fallen to record lows, staged something of a recovery. |
Analysts, however, pointed to the dollar's inability recently to extend that rally despite positive economic and corporate data, and highlighted the fact that many of the US's economic problems had not disappeared. The focus once again has been on the country's massive trade and budget deficits, with predictions of more dollar weakness to come. "The comments from Korea came at a time when sentiment towards the dollar was already softening," said Ian Gunner, a trader at Mellon Financial. On Tuesday, traders in Asia said that both South Korea and Taiwan had withdrawn their bids to buy dollars at the start of the session. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS, said that there was a sentiment in the market that "central banks from Asia and the Middle East are buying euros". A report last month already showed that the dollar was losing its allure as a currency that offered rock-steady returns and stability. Compiled by Central Banking Publications and sponsored by the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland, the survey found 39 nations out of 65 questioned were increasing their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the US dollar. |
India and Russia in energy talks |
India and Russia are to work together in a series of energy deals, part of a pact which could see India invest up to $20bn in oil and gas projects. |
On the agenda are oil and gas extraction as well as transportation deals, to be led by Russian energy giant Gazprom and India's ONGC. The Indian firm is also expected to hold talks on Tuesday about buying a stake in assets once owned by Yukos. It is reported to be keen on buying a 15% stake in oil unit Yuganskneftegas. The former Yukos subsidiary was controversially sold off last year and eventually acquired by state-owned energy giant Rosneft. |
Russian media reported that India and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding on energy co-operation on Tuesday during a meeting between Oil and Natural Gas Corporation chairman Subir Raha, Gazprom chairman Aleksey Miller and India's petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyar. |
The agreement is likely to see the two companies develop refining facilities in Russia, India and elsewhere and organise delivery of oil, gas and petrochemicals from Russia to India and other countries across Asia. ONGC could invest in gas and oil fields in Sakhalin, in the far east of Russia, and may also take part in joint tender bids for projects in eastern Siberia and the Caspian Sea. |
India is urgently searching for fresh energy supplies - particularly liquefied natural gas - as domestic demand is growing at more than 5% a year. |
ONGC's Mr Raha said the two could work together on joint bids from next year. "At current oil and gas prices, our cash flow situation is good," he told Reuters. "What we are saying is - Gazprom has a huge amount of gas and we have the money. "The investment may go up to $20bn or more for a period of five years or so." |
Russian news agencies reported that India's petroleum minister Mr Aiyar and Russian energy minister Viktor Khristenko would discuss the future of Yugansk at a meeting on Tuesday. ONGC's Mr Raha declined to be drawn on his firm's reported interest in the company. However, he stressed that ONGC was not interested in a 'loan-for-oil deal' in connection to Yugansk, similar to that concluded recently between Rosneft and China's National Petroleum Corporation. "China's problem is it has immediate demand and they needed the oil for their coastal refineries. We do not. We would like long-term security through equity participation." It is thought that any decision over Yugansk will be delayed until a US court has decided whether to grant Yukos bankruptcy protection. Yukos is suing a host of companies involved in the sale of Yugansk, auctioned off to pay a huge back-tax bill. It has also threatened legal action against any business which has future commercial dealings with its former subsidiary. |
Weak data buffets French economy |
A batch of downbeat government data has cast doubt over the French economy's future prospects. |
Official figures showed on Friday that unemployment was unchanged at 9.9% last month, while consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in October. At the same time, finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy warned that high oil prices posed a threat to French growth. "[Oil prices] will weigh on consumer spending in the short term, and potentially on confidence," he said. World oil prices have risen by more than 60% since the start of the year as production struggles to keep pace with soaring demand. |
Analysts said French companies, keen to protect their profit margins at a time of rising energy costs, were reluctant to take on extra staff. "[The unemployment figures] show the main problem of the French economy: we have growth but without an improvement in employment," said Marc Touati, an economist at Natexis Banques Populaires. "Politicians must have the will and guts to solve structural unemployment with thorough reforms, otherwise in five or ten years, it will be too late." Obligatory employer contributions to worker welfare programmes mean that it costs more to hire staff in France than in many other European economies. Many economists have urged the government to stimulate employment by reducing non-wage payroll costs, and by scrapping restrictions on working hours. The French statistics agency, INSEE, expects the economy to grow by about 2.4% this year, buoyed by strong consumer spending and business investment. That is above the projected eurozone average of just above 2%. |
Business fears over sluggish EU economy |
As European leaders gather in Rome on Friday to sign the new EU constitution, many companies will be focusing on matters much closer to home - namely how to stay in business. |
Lille is a popular tourist destination for Britons who want a taste of France at the weekend. But how many tourists look at the impressively grand Victorian Chambre de Commerce, which stands beside the Opera House, and consider that it was built - like the town halls in many northern English towns - on the wealth created by coal, steel and textiles? Like northern England and industrial Scotland, those industries have been in long term decline - the last coal pit closed in 1990. Beck-Crespel is a specialist steel firm in Armentieres, about 20 miles from Lille. The company has not laid off a worker since 1945. It specialises in making bolts and fixings for power stations and the oil industry, but not many of those are being built in Europe these days. |
Director Hugues Charbonnier says he is under pressure because factories in the Far East are able to make some of his output more cheaply, while his key markets are now in China and India. "In our business the market is absolutely global, you can not imagine living with our size (of business) even within an enlarged European Union, (if we did that) we would need not 350 people but perhaps just 150 or 200," he says. It isn't just globalisation that is hurting; the law in France means workers are paid for a 39 hour week even though they work just 35 hours. But at least there is still a steel industry. Coal has now totally vanished and textiles are struggling. New business has been attracted, but not enough to make up the difference. |
That is one reason why people here are not great fans of the EU, says Frederic Sawicki, a politics lecturer at the University of Lille. |
"In the region today the unemployment rate is 12%, in some areas it is 15%. They don't see what Europe is doing for them, so there is a kind of euro scepticism, especially in the working classes," he says. Which is strange because Lille is at the crossroads of Europe - if anywhere should be benefiting from the euro it is here. The euro was designed to increase trade within the eurozone, but the biggest increase in trade has been with the rest of the world. Much of that trade passes through the world's largest port, Rotterdam, in Holland, home to specialist crane maker Huisman Itrec. Its cranes help build oil rigs and lifted the sunken Russian submarine Kursk from the sea bed, but Huisman Itrec is now setting up a factory in China, where costs are cheaper and its main customers are closer. |
Boss Henk Addink blames the low growth rate in Europe for the lack of orders closer to home. "In the US growth is something like 6%, in China they are estimating 15%, and in the EU it is more or less 1%," he says. Mr Addink blames the euro for stifling demand. He much preferred the old currencies of Europe, which moved in relation to each country's economic performance. In Germany, industry is exporting more these days, but the economy as a whole is once again mired in slow growth and high unemployment. Growth is likely to peak this year at just under 2%. In Britain that would be a bad year; in Germany it is one of the best in recent years. With Germany making up a third of the eurozone's economy, this is a major problem. If Germany doesn't once again become the powerhouse of Europe, growth across the bloc is never going to be as strong as it could be. However, at one factory near the Dutch border things are changing. |
The Siemens plant at Boscholt makes cordless phones and employs 2,000 staff. Staff have started working an extra four hours a week for no extra pay, after Siemens threatened to take the factory and their jobs to Hungary. Factory manager Herbert Stueker says that he now hopes to increase productivity "by nearly 30%". But Germany needs much more reform if all its industry is to compete with places such Hungary or China. The Government is reforming the labour market and cutting the generous unemployment system, but the real solution is to cut the wages of low skilled workers, says Helmut Schneider, director of the Institute for the Study of Labour at Bonn University. "Labour is too costly in Germany, especially for the low skilled labour and this is the main problem. If we could solve that problem we could cut unemployment by half," he says. The EU set itself the target of being the most efficient economy in the world by 2010. Four years into that process, and the target seems further away than ever. |
M&S cuts prices by average of 24% |
Marks & Spencer has cut prices in London and the regions by an average of 24%, according to research from a City investment bank. |
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said: "In spite of the snow in the UK, it still feels very early to be cutting prices of spring merchandise." Stuart Rose, head of M&S, said last year its prices were too high. "We are bringing in ranges at new price points to compete against mid-market retailers like Next," said M&S. |
Next is one of M&S's biggest competitors and the move may force it to lower prices. DrKW said the cuts are either to clear stock or could indicate a longer term "step change in pricing in certain areas" at M&S. "Either way, this cannot be good news for M&S' margin," it added. "We have brought in quite a lot of new clothing at new price points as part of Stuart Rose's strategy of quality, style -and price," said the M&S spokesman. Many analysts believe February is proving to be a difficult month for retailers and British Retail Consortium figures, due in a few weeks, are expected to reflect the tough trading environment. Separately, investment bank Goldman Sachs produced reseach showing that a basket of 35 M&S goods is now 11% above the high-street average, compared with 43% higher last year. |
It has been a strange week for M&S, which on Tuesday received a statement from Philip Green, the billionaire Bhs owner, confirming he was not rebidding for the company. This was followed the same day by Mark Paulsmeier, a South African financier, issuing a press release saying his Paulsmeier Group was interested in M&S. A sudden spike in M&S's share price followed. However, an M&S spokesman said on Sunday it had no evidence that Mr Paulsmeier had lined up sufficient finance for a bid. He also said the Takeover Panel and the UK's financial watchdog the Financial Services Authority had been in touch with M&S at the beginning of the week to find out what it knew about the Paulsmeier developments. |
Fiat chief takes steering wheel |
The chief executive of the Fiat conglomerate has taken day-to-day control of its struggling car business in an effort to turn it around. |
Sergio Marchionne has replaced Herbert Demel as chief executive of Fiat Auto, with Mr Demel leaving the company. Mr Marchionne becomes the fourth head of the business - which is expected to make a 800m euro ($1bn) loss in 2004 - in as many years. Fiat underperformed the market in Europe last year, seeing flat sales. |
The car business has made an operating loss in five of the last six years and was forced to push back its break-even target from 2005 to 2006. The management changes are part of a wider shake-up of the business following Fiat's resolution of its dispute with General Motors. As part of a major restructuring, Fiat is to integrate the Maserati car company - currently owned by Ferrari - within its own operations. Ferrari, in which Fiat owns a majority stake, could be separately floated on the stock market in either 2006 or 2007. |
Mr Marchionne, who only joined the company last year, said Fiat Auto was now the "principal focus" of his attention. "I have made the decision to take on the post of chief executive of the auto unit to speed up the company's recovery," he said. "A profound cultural transformation is underway following a management reorganisation that has delivered a more agile and efficient structure," he added. |
Although Mr Marchionne does not have a background in the car industry, he has been playing an increasing role in the group's activities. Last year, he said that a series of new models, launched as part of the group's recovery plan, had not boosted revenues as much as hoped. The car business, best known for its Alfa Romeo marque, is expected to make a loss of about 800m euros in 2004. Sales are expected to fall in 2005, Fiat said this week, as it exits unprofitable areas such as the rental car market. Mr Demel, a car industry veteran, took the helm in November 2003 after being recruited by former Fiat chief executive Giuseppe Morchio. Mr Morchio made a bid last year to become chairman after the death of president Umberto Agnelli. However, this was rejected by the founding Agnelli family and Mr Morchio subsequently resigned. Earlier this week, Fiat reached an agreement with GM to dissolve an alliance which could have obliged GM to buy the Italian firm outright. GM will pay Fiat $2bn as part of the settlement. |
UK 'risks breaking golden rule' |
Subsets and Splits