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The core retail price index rose by just 28% in the same period, underlining how effective an investment in housing has been for most people during the past decade. More than a third of the UK's private housing assets - representing more than a trillion pounds in value - are concentrated in London and the South East, the Halifax's figures indicate. Tim Crawford, Group Economist at Halifax, said: "The value of the private housing stock continues to grow and the family home remains, by a large margin, the most valuable asset of the majority of households in the UK." Halifax's own monthly figures on house sales - issued on Thursday - suggest the average price of a British property now stands at £163,748 after a 0.8% rise in January. Housing experts are split on prospects for the market, with some saying price growth will slow but not fall, while others predict a sharp drop in values. |
Market unfazed by Aurora setback |
As the Aurora limped back to its dock on 20 January, a blizzard of photos and interviews seemed to add up to an unambiguous tale of woe. |
The ship had another slice of bad luck to add to its history of health scares and technical trouble. And its owner, P&O Cruises - now part of the huge US Carnival Corporation - was looking at a significant slice chopped off this year's profits and a potential PR fiasco. No-one, however, seems to have told the stock markets. The warning of a five-cent hit to 2005 earnings came just 24 hours after one of the world's biggest investment banks had upped its target for Carnival's share price, from £35 to £36.20. Other investors barely blinked, and by 1300 GMT Carnival's shares in London were down a single penny, or 0.03%, at £32.26. |
Why the mismatch between the public perception and the market's response? "The Aurora issue had been an ongoing one for some time," says Deutsche Bank's Simon Champion. "It was clearly a source of uncertainty for the company - it was a long cruise, after all. But the stock market is very good at treating these issues as one-off events." |
Despite its string of bad luck, he pointed out, Aurora is just one vessel in a large Carnival fleet, the UK's P&O Princess group having been merged into the much larger US firm in 2003. And generally speaking, Carnival has a reputation for keeping its ships pretty much on schedule. "Carnival has an incredibly strong track record," Mr Champion. |
Similarly, analysts expect the impact on the rest of the cruise business to be limited. The hundreds of disappointed passengers who have now had to give up the opportunity to spend the next three months on the Aurora have got both a refund and a credit for another cruise. That should mitigate some of the PR risk, both for Carnival and its main competitor, Royal Caribbean. "While not common, cancellations for technical reasons are not entirely unusual in the industry," wrote analysts from Citigroup Smith Barney in a note to clients on Friday. "Moreover, such events typically have a limited impact on bookings and pricing for future cruises." After all, the Aurora incident may be big news in the UK - but for Carnival customers elsewhere it's unlikely to make too much of a splash. |
Assuming that Citigroup is right, and demand stays solid, the structure of the industry also works in Carnival's favour. In the wake of P&O Princess's takeover by Carnival, the business is now to a great extent a duopoly. Given the expense of building, outfitting and running a cruise ship, "slowing supply growth" is a certainty, said David Anders at Merrill Lynch on Thursday. In other words, if you do want a cruise, your options are limited. And with Carnival remaining the market leader, it looks set to keep selling the tickets - no matter what happens to the ill-fated Aurora in the future. |
Glaxo aims high after profit fall |
GlaxoSmithKline saw its profits fall 9% last year to £6.2bn ($11.5bn), but Europe's biggest drugmaker says a recovery during 2005 is on the way. |
Cheap copies of its drugs, particularly anti-depressants Paxil and Wellbutrin, and a weak dollar had hit profits, but global sales were up 1% in 2004. The firm is confident its new drug pipeline will deliver profits despite the failure of an obesity drug. Chief executive Jean-Pierre Garnier said it had been a "difficult year". |
In early afternoon trade in London the company share price was down 1% at 1218 pence. Mr Garnier said the company had absorbed over £1.5bn of lost sales to generics but still managing to grow the business. "The continuing success of our key products means we can now look forward to a good performance in 2005," he said. "2005 will also be an important year in terms of research and development pipeline progress." However, the firm discontinued development of an experimental treatment for obesity, known as '771, after disappointing clinical trial results. Glaxo is relying on new treatments for conditions such as cancer, diabetes, depression, HIV/AIDS and allergies to lift the pace of sales growth after several disappointing years. |
Renault boss hails 'great year' |
Strong sales outside western Europe helped Renault boost its profits by more than 40% in 2004 although the firm warned of lower margins this year. |
France's second largest carmaker enjoyed a healthy 43% rise in net profits to 2.4bn euros ($3.1bn; £2.9bn) as sales rose 8% to 40.7bn euros. The firm said strong demand outside western Europe and the good performance of its Megane range lifted its results. Chairman Louis Schweitzer said 2004 had been a "great year" for the firm. |
Renault sold more than 2.4 million vehicles in 2004, an increase of 4% on the previous year. Growth came mainly from outside western Europe, with particularly strong sales in Turkey, Russia and North Africa. |
In total, sales outside western Europe - Renault's core market - rose 16.5%. Japanese carmaker Nissan - in which Renault owns a 44% stake - contributed 1.7bn euros in net income over the year. Nissan chairman Carlos Ghosn is to succeed Mr Schweitzer at the head of Renault later this year. |
Renault said the outlook for the industry in Europe this year was "stable", with small growth forecast in other regions. The firm will benefit from the launch of a new Clio model in the coming year and the roll-out of the Logan in many markets. However, the firm said it expected operating margins to be lower in 2005, at 4% of sales as opposed to 5%. "In a sluggish market and an environment impacted by the rise in raw material prices, Renault intends to continue to grow its global sales," the company said in a statement. |
Safety alert as GM recalls cars |
The world's biggest carmaker General Motors (GM) is recalling nearly 200,000 vehicles in the US on safety grounds, according to federal regulators. |
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said the largest recall involves 155,465 pickups, vans and sports utility vehicles (SUVs). This is because of possible malfunctions with the braking systems. The affected vehicles in the product recall are from the 2004 and 2005 model years, GM said. Those vehicles with potential faults are the Chevrolet Avalanche, Express, Kodiak, Silverade and Suburban; the GMC Savana, Sierra and Yukon. |
The NHTSA said a pressure accumulator in the braking system could crack during normal driving and fragments could injure people if the hood was open. This could allow hydraulic fluid to leak, which could make it harder to brake or steer and could cause a crash, it warned. GM is also recalling 19,924 Cadillac XLR coupes, SRX SUVs and Pontiac Grand Prix sedans from the 2004 model year. This is because the accelerator pedal may not work properly in extremely cold temperatures, requiring more braking. In addition, the car giant is calling back 17,815 Buick Raniers, Chevrolet Trailblazers, GMC Envoys and Isuzu Ascenders from the 2005 model years because the windshield is not properly fitted and could fall out in a crash. However, GM stressed that it did not know of any injuries related to the problems. News of the recall follows an announcement last month that GM expects earnings this year be lower than in 2004. The world's biggest car maker is grappling with losses in its European business, weak US sales and now a product recall. In January, GM said higher healthcare costs in North America, and lower profits at its financial services subsidiary would hurt its performance in 2005. |
Asian quake hits European shares |
Shares in Europe's leading reinsurers and travel firms have fallen as the scale of the damage wrought by tsunamis across south Asia has become apparent. |
More than 23,000 people have been killed following a massive underwater earthquake and many of the worst hit areas are popular tourist destinations. Reisurance firms such as Swiss Re and Munich Re lost value as investors worried about rebuilding costs. But the disaster has little impact on stock markets in the US and Asia. |
Currencies including the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah weakened as analysts warned that economic growth may slow. "It came at the worst possible time," said Hans Goetti, a Singapore-based fund manager. "The impact on the tourist industry is pretty devastating, especially in Thailand." Travel-related shares dropped in Europe, with companies such as Germany's TUI and Lufthansa and France's Club Mediterranne sliding. Insurers and reinsurance firms were also under pressure in Europe. |
Shares in Munich Re and Swiss Re - the world's two biggest reinsurers - both fell 1.7% as the market speculated about the cost of rebuilding in Asia. Zurich Financial, Allianz and Axa also suffered a decline in value. |
However, their losses were much smaller, reflecting the market's view that reinsurers were likely to pick up the bulk of the costs. Worries about the size of insurance liabilities dragged European shares down, although the impact was exacerbated by light post-Christmas trading. Germany's benchmark Dax index closed the day 16.29 points lower at 3.817.69 while France's Cac index of leading shares fell 5.07 points to 3.817.69. Investors pointed out, however, that declines probably would be industry specific, with the travel and insurance firms hit hardest. "It's still too early for concrete damage figures," Swiss Re's spokesman Floiran Woest told Associated Press. "That also has to do with the fact that the damage is very widely spread geographically." |
The unfolding scale of the disaster in south Asia had little immediate impact on US shares, however. The Dow Jones index had risen 20.54 points, or 0.2%, to 10,847.66 by late morning as analsyts were cheered by more encouraging reports from retailers about post-Christmas sales. In Asian markets, adjustments were made quickly to account for lower earnings and the cost of repairs. Thai Airways shed almost 4%. The country relies on tourism for about 6% of its total economy. Singapore Airlines dropped 2.6%. About 5% of Singapore's annual gross domestic product (GDP) comes from tourism. Malaysia's budget airline, AirAsia fell 2.9%. Resort operator Tanco Holdings slumped 5%. |
Travel companies also took a hit, with Japan's Kinki Nippon sliding 1.5% and HIS dropping 3.3%. However, the overall impact on Asia's largest stock market, Japan's Nikkei, was slight. Shares fell just 0.03%. Concerns about the strength of economic growth going forward weighed on the currency markets. The Indonesian rupiah lost as much as 0.6% against the US dollar, before bouncing back slightly to trade at 9,300. The Thai baht lost 0.3% against the US currency, trading at 39.10. In India, where more than 2,000 people are thought to have died, the rupee shed 0.1% against the dollar Analysts said that it was difficult to predict the total cost of the disaster and warned that share prices and currencies would come under increasing pressure as the bills mounted. |
Oil prices reach three-month low |
Oil prices have fallen heavily for a second day, closing at three-month lows after news that US crude stocks have improved ahead of winter. |
London Brent crude closed at $40.15 on Thursday - a drop of 5.1% - having dived below $40 a barrel for the first time since mid-September. US light crude traded in New York lost more than $2 to $43.25, its lowest close since 10 September. The price of both benchmark crudes has dropped 12% in two days. The falls were triggered when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude stocks were 3.5% higher than a year ago. The news calmed worries about winter shortages. Weak US fuel and heating oil stocks have been a persistent factor in pushing up oil prices. "It's amazing how quickly sentiment changed," said Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis. Analysts also attributed the fall to mild early-winter weather, which has tempered demand for heating oil. |
The stronger fuel inventories helped boost US stock markets to nine-month highs on Wednesday, though only the Nasdaq index had hung onto those gains by the end of Thursday. |
In London, the FTSE 100 index closed 15 points higher at 4,751. The long-awaited drop in oil prices helped to ease persistent investor jitters over the impact of energy costs on company profits and economic growth. However, traders warned that the fall could be short-lived if there is a cold snap in North America this winter or any major supply problems in other parts of the world. |
The price of crude is still up about 30% on the start of 2004, but has fallen from the record of $55.67 set in late October. Opec nations have increased production to 25-year highs to meet global demand and this has helped rebuild US stocks hit by supply disruptions after Hurricane Ivan in September. Traders were also encouraged by comments on Wednesday from the energy minister of Opec member Algeria. Chakib Khelil said the cartel was likely to keep output unchanged when it meets next week. However, some analysts believe the sharp fall in crude prices may harden Opec's attitude to over-production, leading to a scaling back of oil output. |
Fears still remain over the level of US heating oil stocks, which are rising but remain down on 2004 levels. A cold spell in north America would start to deplete supplies and could spark further price rises. Analysts, however, say prices will fall further if inventories continue to rise. "Mother Nature is going to be huge in the next several weeks," said Kyle Cooper, at Citigroup Global Markets. "Long term I think we're headed to $30-35 but I don't think we're doing that yet. We have a lot of winter left." John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Services, said the EIA data indicated there should be adequate supplies for the next three months in the US. . |
Markets fall on weak dollar fears |
Rising oil prices and the sinking dollar hit shares on Monday after a finance ministers' meeting and stern words from Fed chief Alan Greenspan. |
The London FTSE fell 0.8% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 dropped 2.11%, its steepest fall in three months. G20 finance ministers said nothing about supporting the dollar, whose slide could further jeopardise growth in Japan and Europe. And Mr Greenspan warned Asian states could soon stop funding the US deficit. |
On Monday afternoon, the euro was close to an all-time high against the dollar at above $1.30. Oil pushed higher too on Monday, as investors fretted about cold weather in the US and Europe and a potential output cut from oil producers' group Opec, although prices had cooled by the end of the day. In London, the benchmark Brent crude price closed down 51 cents at $44.38 a barrel, while New York light sweet crude closed down 25 cents at $48.64 a barrel. The slide comes as the US has been attempting to talk up the traditional "strong dollar" policy. |
The latest to pitch in has been President George W Bush himself, who told the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit in Chile that he remained committed to halving the budget deficit. Together with a $500bn trade gap, the red ink spreading across America's public finances is widely seen as a key factor driving the dollar lower. And last week US Treasury Secretary John Snow told an audience in the UK that the policy remained unaltered. But he also said that the rate was entirely up to the markets - a signal which traders took as advice to sell the dollar. Some had looked to the G20 meeting for direction. But Mr Snow made clear exchange rates had not been on the agenda. |
For the US government, letting the dollar drift is a useful short-term fix. |
US exports get more affordable, helping perhaps to close the trade gap. In the meantime, the debt keeps getting bigger, with Congress authorising an $800bn rise in what the US can owe - taking the total to $8.2 trillion. But in a speech on Friday, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned that in the longer term things are likely to get tricky. At present, much of gap in both public debt is covered by selling bonds to Asian states such as Japan and China, since the dollar is seen as the world's reserve currency. Similarly, Asian investment helps bridge the gap in the current account - the deficit between what the US as a whole spends and what it earns. But already they are turning more cautious - an auction of debt in August found few takers. And Mr Greenspan said that could turn into a trend, if the fall of the dollar kept eating into the value of those investments. "It seems persuasive that, given the size of the US current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point," he said. |
Five million Germans out of work |
Germany's unemployment figure rose above the psychologically important level of five million last month. |
On Wednesday, the German Federal Labour Agency said the jobless total had reached 5.037 million in January, which takes the jobless rate to 12.1%. "Yes, we have effectively more than five million people unemployed," a government minister said earlier on ZDF public television. Unemployment has not been this high in Germany since the 1930s. |
Changes to the way the statistics are compiled partly explain the jump of 572,900 in the numbers. But the figures are embarrassing for the government. "With the figures apparently the worst we've seen in the post-war period, these numbers are very charged politically," said Christian Jasperneite, an economist with MM Warburg. "They could well put an end to the recent renaissance we've seen by the SPD [the ruling Social Democrats] in the polls, and with state elections due in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, they may have an adverse effect on the government's chances there." |
The opposition also made political capital from the figures. It said there are a further 1.5 million-2 million people on subsidised employment schemes who are, in fact, looking for real jobs. It added that government reforms, including unpopular benefit cuts, do not go far enough. Under the government's controversial "Hartz IV" reforms, which came into effect at the beginning of the year, both those on unemployment benefits and welfare support and those who are long-term unemployed are officially classified as looking for work. The bad winter weather also took its toll, as key sectors such as the construction sector laid off workers. Adjusted for the seasonal factors, the German jobless total rose by 227,000 in January from December. |
German bidder in talks with LSE |
Deutsche Boerse bosses have held "constructive, professional and friendly" talks with the London Stock Exchange (LSE), its chief has said. |
Werner Seifert met LSE chief executive Clara Furse amid rumours the German group may raise its bid to £1.5bn ($2.9bn) from its initial £1.3bn offer. However, rival suitor Euronext also upped the ante in the bid battle. Ahead of talks with the LSE on Friday, the pan-European bourse said it may be prepared to make its offer in cash. The Paris-based exchange, owner of Liffe in London, is reported to be ready to raise £1.4bn to fund a bid. |
The news came as Deutsche Boerse held its third meeting with the LSE since its bid approach in December which was turned down by the London exchange for undervaluing the business. However, the LSE did agree to leave the door open for talks to find out whether a "significantly-improved proposal" would be in the interests of LSE's shareholders and customers. In the meantime, Euronext, which combines the Paris, Amsterdam and Lisbon stock exchanges, also began talks with the LSE. In a statement on Thursday, Euronext said any offer was likely to be solely in cash, but added that: "There can be no assurances at this stage that any offer will be made." A deal with either bidder would create the biggest stock market operator in Europe and the second biggest in the world after the New York Stock Exchange. However, neither side has made a formal offer for the LSE, with sources claiming such a step may still be weeks away. |
Deutsche Boerse could also face mounting opposition to a bid at home. Among sweeteners reported to have been discussed by Mr Seifert with Ms Furse were plans to move the management of its cash and Eurex derivatives market to London, as well as two members of its executive board. But, Hans Reckers, a board member of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, said that cash trading should also remain in Frankfurt, something Deutsche Boerse could move to the UK. "It is not just the headquarters of the Boerse but also important market segments that must stay permanently in Frankfurt. This has special importance for the business activities of the banks and the consultants," he said. Local government officials in Frankfurt's state of Hessen have also spoken out against the move. "It is our wish that the headquarters stay here to maintain Frankfurt's standing as the number one financial centre in continental Europe," Alois Rhiel, its minister for economic affairs added. |
Amex shares up on spin-off news |
Subsets and Splits