is_resolved
stringclasses 3
values | date_close
stringlengths 4
15
| url
stringlengths 29
229
| background
stringlengths 0
37.7k
| date_resolve_at
stringlengths 4
10
| question
stringlengths 1
15.2k
| date_begin
stringlengths 4
10
| community_predictions
stringlengths 2
1.03M
| extracted_urls
stringlengths 2
67.4k
| question_type
stringclasses 9
values | resolution_criteria
stringlengths 4
14.7k
| data_source
stringclasses 5
values | resolution
stringlengths 1
22
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866 |
<p>While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 April 2021</span>: Simulated or shakedown "cruises" would not count.</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021" with a closing date of 3 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-03T22:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-16T00:21:31.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4646, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 April 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 486, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1866, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:51:52.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-06T14:51:52.251Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-03T22:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-16T00:21:32.000Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4647, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 486, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1866, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:52:45.128Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-06T14:52:45.189Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-03T22:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-16T00:21:32.027Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4648, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 486, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1866, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:52:22.407Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-06T14:52:22.500Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-03T22:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-16T00:21:32.055Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4649, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 486, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1866, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:51:32.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-06T14:51:33.016Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-03T22:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-16T00:21:32.082Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4650, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 486, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1866, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:53:03.076Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-06T14:53:03.134Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 498, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-03T04:24:08.638Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 182, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 12 April 2021</span>: Simulated or shakedown \"cruises\" would not count.</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021\" with a closing date of 3 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:20.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1866, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:07.470+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:57.999+00:00"}, "name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 486, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 114, "published_at": "2020-12-16T01:19:23.056Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-06T14:53:03.212Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-12-15T17:19:23.056-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-12-16T00:45:20.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1419 | <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 28-29 January 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 29 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-29T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:35:57.803Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3160, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 169, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1419, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 January 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 11 December 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-29T21:47:27.726Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:54.067Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-29T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:35:57.834Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3161, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 169, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1419, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 January 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 11 December 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-29T21:47:24.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:54.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-29T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:35:57.859Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3162, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 169, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1419, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 January 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 11 December 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-29T21:47:21.250Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:54.307Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 187, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-12-13T18:27:44.613Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 46, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 28-29 January 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 29 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-29T07:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1419, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:29.996+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:08.621+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:25:44.389+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:22:00.003+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 29 January 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 11 December 2019?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 169, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 111, "published_at": "2019-12-13T18:04:08.310Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-29T21:47:27.766Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-13T10:04:08.310-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-13T18:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1700 |
<p>Texas has seen a major increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since mid-June 2020, with Gov. Greg Abbott warning that the state may have to institute a lockdown to address the jump (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-governor-warns-of-possible-coronavirus-lockdown-if-texans-dont-start-wearing-face-masks/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/gov-greg-abbott-extends-covid-19-disaster-declaration-in-texas/" target="_blank">KXAN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Texas Department of State Health Services' COVID-19 Test and Hospital data page (<a href="https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f" target="_blank">TX Dept. of State Health Services</a>). At the bottom of the page, click the "Hospitals - Statewide" tab. Hover your cursor over a column for a date for the exact figure. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas on 11 July 2020 were 10,083.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 4 October 2020" with a closing date of 4 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-14T16:15:26.617Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4161, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 3 August 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 1505, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1700, "question_name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:25:17.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.738Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-14T16:15:26.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4162, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3 August 2020 and 23 August 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 1505, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1700, "question_name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:34:09.375Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.804Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-14T16:15:26.666Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4163, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 24 August 2020 and 13 September 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 1505, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1700, "question_name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:37:23.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.875Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-14T16:15:26.690Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4164, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 September 2020 and 4 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 1505, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1700, "question_name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:30:04.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.999Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-14T16:15:26.715Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4165, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 4 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 1505, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1700, "question_name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:37:01.524Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:55.133Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1592, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-21T21:37:40.023Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 12, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "85%", "description": "\r\n <p>Texas has seen a major increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since mid-June 2020, with Gov. Greg Abbott warning that the state may have to institute a lockdown to address the jump (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-governor-warns-of-possible-coronavirus-lockdown-if-texans-dont-start-wearing-face-masks/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/gov-greg-abbott-extends-covid-19-disaster-declaration-in-texas/\" target=\"_blank\">KXAN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Texas Department of State Health Services' COVID-19 Test and Hospital data page (<a href=\"https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f\" target=\"_blank\">TX Dept. of State Health Services</a>). At the bottom of the page, click the \"Hospitals - Statewide\" tab. Hover your cursor over a column for a date for the exact figure. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas on 11 July 2020 were 10,083.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? </span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 4 October 2020\" with a closing date of 4 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-10-03T07:01:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1700, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:25.684+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:33.655+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:29:28.844+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:53:06.178+00:00"}, "name": "When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1505, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 260, "published_at": "2020-07-14T16:50:47.360Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-05T14:37:23.689Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-14T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-14T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1470 | <p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href="https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE" target="_blank">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Crown" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:11:21.000Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3260, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Big Little Lies", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:26.104Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:32.042Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:11:21.025Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3261, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Crown", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:25.462Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:32.289Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:11:21.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3262, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Game of Thrones", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:24.842Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:32.914Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:11:21.074Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3263, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Handmaid's Tale", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:24.201Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:33.271Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:11:21.102Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3264, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Stranger Things", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:23.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:33.566Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:43:23.262Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3271, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1470, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:22.567Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:36.702Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 66, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-12-27T09:52:02.946Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "<p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE\" target=\"_blank\">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Crown\" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-19T07:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1470, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:22.087+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:06.496+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:20:03.378+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:18:37.092+00:00"}, "name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 65, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 29, "published_at": "2019-12-26T20:23:56.719Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:28:26.115Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-01-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-26T12:30:56.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-26T20:30:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2023 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 3 July 2021 (<a href="https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh" target="_blank">HealthData.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 28 June 2021 through 4 July 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000" with a closing date of 4 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.295Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5172, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 5,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:49.066Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:49.068Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.329Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5173, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5,000 and 10,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:54.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:54.109Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.358Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5174, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:41.902Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:41.905Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.385Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5175, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:55.374Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:55.375Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5176, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:56.965Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:56.967Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.441Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5177, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:58.772Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:58.774Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.467Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5178, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 30,000 but fewer than 35,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:00.044Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:00.045Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.495Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5179, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:01.505Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:01.506Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:07.522Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5180, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 40,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 57, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2023, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:03.036Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:03.039Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 57, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-06-04T03:45:37.858Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "3%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 3 July 2021 (<a href=\"https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh\" target=\"_blank\">HealthData.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 28 June 2021 through 4 July 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000\" with a closing date of 4 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-07-03T07:01:05.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2023, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:54.903+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:36.400+00:00"}, "name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 57, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 21, "published_at": "2021-06-02T17:49:28.535Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:03.064Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-02T11:00:05.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-02T18:00:05.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2330 |
<p>The market for self-storage space is continuing to expand, even in the face of rising inflation across the economy (<a href="https://rejournals.com/self-storage-is-on-a-growth-kick-and-its-not-slowing-down/" target="_blank">REjournals</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses, Gross Rents" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU431104" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.570Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6214, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 229, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2330, "question_name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:56.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:56.313Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.588Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6215, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 229, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2330, "question_name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:57.848Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:57.849Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.595Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6216, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.0% but less than 12.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 229, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2330, "question_name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:54.697Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:54.698Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.604Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6217, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 229, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2330, "question_name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:59.466Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:59.467Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.611Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6218, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 15.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 229, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2330, "question_name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:33.929Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:33.929Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 231, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-18T15:31:40.923Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 14, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "\r\n <p>The market for self-storage space is continuing to expand, even in the face of rising inflation across the economy (<a href=\"https://rejournals.com/self-storage-is-on-a-growth-kick-and-its-not-slowing-down/\" target=\"_blank\">REjournals</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses, Gross Rents\" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2023 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU431104\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2330, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:17.173+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:40.383+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 229, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2022-03-30T21:12:27.687Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-18T17:01:59.477Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-30T14:12:27.687-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-30T21:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1484 | <p>The 92nd Academy Awards®, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (<a href="https://oscar.go.com/" target="_blank">Oscars</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)" with a closing date of 9 February 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.860Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3359, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:19.203Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:15.652Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.884Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3360, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joker (Todd Phillips)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:17.714Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:15.996Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.915Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3361, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1917 (Sam Mendes)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:16.319Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:16.375Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.936Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3362, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:14.920Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:16.685Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.956Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3363, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:13.529Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:16.929Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:03:22.977Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3364, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1484, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:12.113Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:17.410Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 115, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (<a href=\"https://oscar.go.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Oscars</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)\" with a closing date of 9 February 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-02-09T07:59:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1484, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:12:33.511+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:58.851+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:33:47.853+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:29:15.600+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2020-01-15T15:06:15.542Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:39:19.218Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-15T10:00:36.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-15T18:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1600 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily" target="_blank">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). As of 19 April 2020, reported U.S. deaths totaled 35,793.<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 70,000 but less than 80,000" with a closing date of 9 May 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:02.973Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3836, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 60,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T23:00:46.251Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:32.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:03.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3837, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 60,000 and 70,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T22:59:21.363Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:32.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:03.217Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3838, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 70,000 but less than 80,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T22:59:11.554Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:32.527Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:03.340Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3839, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 80,000 and 90,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T22:59:02.036Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:32.687Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:03.499Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3840, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 90,000 but less than 100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T22:58:53.404Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:32.869Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-10T06:59:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-23T16:52:03.569Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3841, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 266, "predictions_count": 809, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1600, "question_name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T22:58:43.604Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:33.096Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 812, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-24T02:43:37.150Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily\" target=\"_blank\">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). As of 19 April 2020, reported U.S. deaths totaled 35,793.<span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused?</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 70,000 but less than 80,000\" with a closing date of 9 May 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-05-09T06:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1600, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:13.293+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:22:00.063+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:55:12.207+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:29:48.159+00:00"}, "name": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 809, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 266, "published_at": "2020-04-23T17:01:09.639Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-11T23:00:46.666Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-08T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-23T10:01:09.639-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-23T17:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2982 |
<p>Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-10/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-in-july-weekly-jobless-claims-above-expectations" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL" target="_blank">FRED</a>, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percentage Change from Year Ago"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8946, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by less than 1.600% or down", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:22.889Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:22.890Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.899Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8947, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:30.729Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:30.730Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.907Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8948, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:18.659Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:18.660Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.914Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8949, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:42:32.688Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:42:32.689Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.921Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8950, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:42:53.046Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:42:53.046Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.929Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8951, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:27.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:27.222Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:02:27.937Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8952, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 4.600%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2982, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:34.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:34.102Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 306, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-15T00:46:34.276Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 17, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "84%", "description": "\r\n <p>Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-10/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-in-july-weekly-jobless-claims-above-expectations\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items\" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>, click \"EDIT GRAPH\" and change \"Units\" to \"Percentage Change from Year Ago\"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2982, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 306, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2023-08-18T15:03:49.793Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-12T15:43:34.113Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.657Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2654 |
<p>Avatar: The Way of Water is the first sequel to the 2009 blockbuster Avatar (<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0499549/" target="_blank">IMDb - Avatar</a>). The question will be suspended on 16 December 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 16-18 December 2022 (<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3372254721/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 16 December 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-19T15:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:41:09.752Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7552, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $100 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2654, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:24.457Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:24.458Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-19T15:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:41:09.761Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7553, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2654, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:25.691Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:25.692Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-19T15:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:41:09.769Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7554, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $150 million but less than $200 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2654, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:26.887Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:26.888Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-19T15:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:41:09.777Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7555, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2654, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:23.267Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:23.268Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-19T15:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:41:09.784Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7556, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $250 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2654, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:28.090Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:28.091Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 213, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Avatar: The Way of Water is the first sequel to the 2009 blockbuster Avatar (<a href=\"https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0499549/\" target=\"_blank\">IMDb - Avatar</a>). The question will be suspended on 16 December 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 16-18 December 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3372254721/\" target=\"_blank\">Box Office Mojo</a>, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 16 December 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-17T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2654, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 172, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 56, "published_at": "2022-12-02T16:06:13.592Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-19T23:24:28.099Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-17T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-02T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-02T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:58.023Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2639 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (<a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410008301&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.15&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.2&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2006&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20060101%2C20210101" target="_blank">Statistics Canada</a>, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of "Landed Immigrants" by the "Total Population" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4/2841.2) of the BC labour force.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-11-23T22:42:52.971Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "13%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7489, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 32.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.13, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.13, "probability_formatted": "13%", "question_id": 2639, "question_name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T15:20:15.269Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-11-23T22:42:52.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "48%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7490, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.48, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.48, "probability_formatted": "48%", "question_id": 2639, "question_name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T20:53:38.890Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-11-23T22:42:52.989Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "30%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7491, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.3, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.3, "probability_formatted": "30%", "question_id": 2639, "question_name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T15:20:15.275Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-11-23T22:42:52.997Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "8%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7492, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.08, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.08, "probability_formatted": "8%", "question_id": 2639, "question_name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T20:53:38.880Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-11-23T22:42:53.006Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7493, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 35.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2639, "question_name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-26T18:23:48.225Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 90, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (<a href=\"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410008301&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.15&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.2&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2006&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20060101%2C20210101\" target=\"_blank\">Statistics Canada</a>, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of \"Landed Immigrants\" by the \"Total Population\" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4/2841.2) of the BC labour force.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2639, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 85, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 27, "published_at": "2022-11-25T17:11:03.685Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-25T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-25T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:01.214Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955 | <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 8 March 2021</span>: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. </p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.069Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4907, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 70,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:02.421Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:02.480Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.095Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4908, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:15.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:15.414Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.119Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4909, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:10.079Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:10.081Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.144Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4910, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:28.788Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:28.790Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.168Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4911, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:51:54.553Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:51:54.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.193Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4912, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:21.970Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:21.972Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.220Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4913, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:33.679Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:33.681Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.244Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4914, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:51.188Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:52:51.191Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.270Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4915, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:12.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:12.430Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.296Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4916, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:31.762Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:31.764Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T18:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T22:18:12.321Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4917, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 115,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 759, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1955, "question_name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:48.781Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-07T15:53:48.783Z"}], "answers_count": 11, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 839, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-20T21:56:23.161Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "61%", "description": " <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople Receiving 1 or More Doses\u201d (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 8 March 2021</span>: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. </p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-03-31T07:01:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1955, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:10.894+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:19.926+00:00"}, "name": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 759, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 183, "published_at": "2021-03-03T18:50:11.425Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-07T15:54:28.817Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-03-03T11:00:24.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-03-03T19:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2242 |
<p>Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035092720/progressives-want-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire-his-response-not-yet" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/stephen-breyer-gop-blockade-biden-supreme-court-pick/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/oconnor070105.pdf" target="_blank">Supreme Court</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-07T18:10:37.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-14T16:16:53.610Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5982, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2242, "question_name": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:44.659Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:44.660Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-07T18:10:37.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-14T16:16:53.636Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5983, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2242, "question_name": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:48.713Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:48.714Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-07T18:10:37.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-14T16:16:53.653Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5984, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2242, "question_name": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:41.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:41.180Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 477, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-26T17:25:10.624Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 71, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "\r\n <p>Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035092720/progressives-want-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire-his-response-not-yet\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/stephen-breyer-gop-blockade-biden-supreme-court-pick/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/oconnor070105.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Supreme Court</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023\" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-04T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2242, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 390, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 121, "published_at": "2022-01-14T16:16:53.744Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T20:34:48.723Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-04-07T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-01-14T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-01-14T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T20:40:03.556Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907 |
<p>The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/" target="_blank">Dutch News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet" target="_blank">houseofrepresentatives.nl</a>). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). A caretaker government would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 18 September 2021" with a closing date of 18 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-18T14:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T20:33:54.286Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4752, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 887, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1907, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:20.429Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:20.430Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-18T14:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T20:33:54.314Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4753, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 887, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1907, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:26.266Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:26.267Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-18T14:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T20:33:54.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4754, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 18 September 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 887, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1907, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:32.079Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:32.080Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1035, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-31T14:25:56.221Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 49, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "80%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/\" target=\"_blank\">Dutch News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet\" target=\"_blank\">houseofrepresentatives.nl</a>). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). A caretaker government would not count.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 18 September 2021\" with a closing date of 18 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-09-18T07:01:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1907, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:33.521+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:29.440+00:00"}, "name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 887, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2021-01-15T20:33:54.473Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-18T15:51:32.104Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-15T12:33:54.473-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-15T18:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1536 |
<p>The Ohio primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/ohio-primary" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 March 2020: As Ohio postponed its primary election to 2 June 2020, the question will remain open until then (</span><a href="https://www.sos.state.oh.us/coronafacts/" target="_blank">sos.state.oh.us</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">).</span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Joe Biden" with a closing date of 28 April 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);"><br></span></p><p><br></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.001Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3567, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joe Biden", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:38:51.245Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:03.239Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.044Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3568, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Michael Bloomberg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:39:09.562Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:03.406Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.080Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3569, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Pete Buttigieg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:39:27.841Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:03.584Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3570, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Amy Klobuchar", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:39:45.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:03.802Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.142Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3571, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:40:13.871Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:03.974Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.173Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3572, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:40:32.370Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:04.301Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:46:26.206Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3573, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 243, "predictions_count": 615, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1536, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:40:50.976Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:04.542Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 620, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-04T10:53:40.282Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 55, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "18%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Ohio primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/ohio-primary\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 18 March 2020: As Ohio postponed its primary election to 2 June 2020, the question will remain open until then (</span><a href=\"https://www.sos.state.oh.us/coronafacts/\" target=\"_blank\">sos.state.oh.us</a><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">).</span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Joe Biden\" with a closing date of 28 April 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\"><br></span></p><p><br></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-02T06:59:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1536, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:44.617+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:16:55.322+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T16:30:46.151+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T16:13:31.353+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 615, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 243, "published_at": "2020-02-21T17:20:07.215Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T20:40:51.117Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-21T10:00:32.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-21T18:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1410 |
<p>Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Note 11 August 2020</span>: The question asks about the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020. There will not be adjustments made for any stock split.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $400.00" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:46:26.622Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3143, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $250.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 344, "predictions_count": 1824, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1410, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T17:23:46.323Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T17:23:46.326Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:46:26.671Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3144, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $250.00 and $300.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 344, "predictions_count": 1824, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1410, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T17:30:18.459Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T17:30:18.464Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:46:26.698Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3145, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $300.00 but less than $350.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 344, "predictions_count": 1824, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1410, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T16:40:57.710Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T16:40:57.712Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:46:26.736Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3146, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $350.00 and $400.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 344, "predictions_count": 1824, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1410, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T16:54:18.484Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T16:54:18.488Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:46:26.787Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3147, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $400.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 344, "predictions_count": 1824, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1410, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T17:10:01.347Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T17:10:01.360Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1929, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-12-23T19:38:25.062Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 374, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "6%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">Note 11 August 2020</span>: The question asks about the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020. There will not be adjustments made for any stock split.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $400.00\" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T08:01:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1410, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:13:58.934+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:09:43.199+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:15:41.280+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T02:55:56.138+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1824, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 344, "published_at": "2019-11-29T15:56:28.882Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T17:30:18.643Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-11-29T10:00:26.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-11-29T18:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2540 |
<p>Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-62710526" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-01/bolsonaro-gains-on-lula-ahead-of-brazil-election-datafolha-poll" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (<a href="https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/brazilian-electoral-authority-begins-final-steps-for-electronic-ballot-boxes-for-october-elections/" target="_blank">Rio Times</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-02T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.874Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7100, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 41.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 129, "predictions_count": 381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2540, "question_name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:34.992Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:34.993Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-02T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7101, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 129, "predictions_count": 381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2540, "question_name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:38.693Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:38.694Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-02T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.898Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7102, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 44.0% but less than 47.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 129, "predictions_count": 381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2540, "question_name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:42.332Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:42.332Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-02T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.906Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7103, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 129, "predictions_count": 381, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2540, "question_name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:46.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:46.102Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-02T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.913Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7104, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 129, "predictions_count": 381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2540, "question_name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:49.275Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:49.276Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 386, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-10-02T04:44:27.321Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "\r\n <p>Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-62710526\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-01/bolsonaro-gains-on-lula-ahead-of-brazil-election-datafolha-poll\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/brazilian-electoral-authority-begins-final-steps-for-electronic-ballot-boxes-for-october-elections/\" target=\"_blank\">Rio Times</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-02T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2540, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 381, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 129, "published_at": "2022-09-09T16:27:27.978Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-03T13:04:49.284Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-09-12T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-09-12T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-03-09T16:40:51.988Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2251 |
<p>On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (<a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com/" target="_blank">Companies Market Cap</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, the most valuable in the world" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-30T21:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T14:53:26.077Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5997, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 184, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2251, "question_name": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:44.871Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:44.872Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-30T21:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T14:53:26.100Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5998, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 184, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2251, "question_name": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:38.445Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:38.446Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-30T21:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T14:53:26.117Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5999, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 184, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2251, "question_name": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:12.071Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:12.072Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 748, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-28T18:22:57.909Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 336, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (<a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Companies Market Cap</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, the most valuable in the world\" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-30T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2251, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:13.562+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:09.126+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 738, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 184, "published_at": "2022-01-28T14:53:26.206Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-02T15:43:44.881Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-30T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-01-28T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-01-28T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1729 |
<p>On 4 July 2020, rapper Kanye West announced that he was running for president (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/kanye-west-announced-running-president/story?id=71614805" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). Since then, West has been racing to meet filing deadlines in various states in order to appear on the ballot (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kanye-west-files-presidential-ballot-seven-states-1522549" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/07/28/kanye-west-filed-to-appear-on-5-ballots-so-far-in-unlikely-presidential-bid/#6a6a7ff322c3" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. Whether West ceases to be a candidate before election day is immaterial.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 9 and 16" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T13:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-06T22:18:31.370Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4242, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "8 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1729, "question_name": "In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-03T14:08:27.894Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:59.149Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T13:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-06T22:18:31.391Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4243, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9 and 16", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1729, "question_name": "In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-03T14:08:42.467Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:59.202Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T13:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-06T22:18:31.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4244, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 17 and 24", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1729, "question_name": "In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-03T14:08:33.166Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:59.265Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T13:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-06T22:18:31.434Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4245, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 24", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1729, "question_name": "In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-03T14:08:37.932Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:59.334Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 391, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-28T13:28:12.695Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 67, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "24%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 4 July 2020, rapper Kanye West announced that he was running for president (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/kanye-west-announced-running-president/story?id=71614805\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). Since then, West has been racing to meet filing deadlines in various states in order to appear on the ballot (<a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/kanye-west-files-presidential-ballot-seven-states-1522549\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/07/28/kanye-west-filed-to-appear-on-5-ballots-so-far-in-unlikely-presidential-bid/#6a6a7ff322c3\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. Whether West ceases to be a candidate before election day is immaterial.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 9 and 16\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-03T08:01:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1729, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:22.970+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:43.083+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:35:16.841+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:26:45.153+00:00"}, "name": "In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 385, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2020-08-07T16:49:36.901Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-03T14:08:42.490Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-07T10:00:37.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-07T17:00:37.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2903 |
<p>The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/why-are-interest-rates-in-the-uk-going-up" target="_blank">Bank of England</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-11/bank-of-england-raises-rates-to-4-5-as-inflation-slow-to-fall" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate" target="_blank">Bank of England - Bank Rate</a>, <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/may-2023" target="_blank">Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes</a>). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates" target="_blank">Bank of England - MPC Schedule</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%" with a closing date of 21 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.090Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8601, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 4.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T17:00:00.506Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T17:00:00.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.113Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8602, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:50.406Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:50.407Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.123Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8603, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:53.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:53.107Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.132Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8604, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:55.468Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:55.469Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.141Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8605, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:57.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:57.976Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-21T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T13:47:50.150Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8606, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5.50% or higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2903, "question_name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:47.844Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-21T16:59:47.845Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 325, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (<a href=\"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/why-are-interest-rates-in-the-uk-going-up\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-11/bank-of-england-raises-rates-to-4-5-as-inflation-slow-to-fall\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England - Bank Rate</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/may-2023\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes</a>). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England - MPC Schedule</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%\" with a closing date of 21 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-09-21T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2903, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 324, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2023-06-09T15:35:53.018Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-21T17:00:00.516Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-09T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-09T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3199 | <p>Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (<a href="https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2023/12/20/2024-stories-to-watch-phoenix-sinema-abortion-election" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-kyrsten-sinema-failure-not-option-border-immigration-talks-rcna129756" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:37:15.499Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "58%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9900, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and she will announce that she is running", "normalized_probability": 0.582, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 29, "probability": 0.582, "probability_formatted": "58%", "question_id": 3199, "question_name": "Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:16:12.724Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:37:15.507Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "31%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9901, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and she will announce that she is not running", "normalized_probability": 0.314, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 29, "probability": 0.314, "probability_formatted": "31%", "question_id": 3199, "question_name": "Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:16:12.719Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:37:15.514Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "10%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9902, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.104, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 29, "probability": 0.104, "probability_formatted": "10%", "question_id": 3199, "question_name": "Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:16:12.714Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 32, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (<a href=\"https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2023/12/20/2024-stories-to-watch-phoenix-sinema-abortion-election\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-kyrsten-sinema-failure-not-option-border-immigration-talks-rcna129756\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-04-09T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3199, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 29, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 24, "published_at": "2024-01-05T16:51:23.350Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2024-01-05T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:16:15.299Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2572 |
<p>Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2022-09-02/is-a-fall-covid-19-surge-coming-to-the-u-s" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03157-x" target="_blank">Nature</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_select_00" target="_blank">CDC COVID Data Tracker</a>, click "Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7229, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 50,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:34.661Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:34.662Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.205Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7230, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:27.169Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:27.170Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.218Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7231, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:46:01.912Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:46:01.914Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.230Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7232, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:55.386Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:55.387Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.240Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7233, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:42.782Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:42.783Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7234, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:30.785Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:30.786Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.256Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7235, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:49.447Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:49.447Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:17:39.264Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7236, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "350,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2572, "question_name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:38.626Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-07T21:45:38.627Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 304, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-10-08T16:38:04.559Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 175, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n <p>Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2022-09-02/is-a-fall-covid-19-surge-coming-to-the-u-s\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03157-x\" target=\"_blank\">Nature</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_select_00\" target=\"_blank\">CDC COVID Data Tracker</a>, click \"Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States\" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2572, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 294, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 50, "published_at": "2022-10-07T14:21:10.296Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-07T21:46:01.933Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-07T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-07T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2030 |
<p>No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise (<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2382320/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). The outcome will be determined with "Domestic Weekend" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo (<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4077159937/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled:</p><p>
</p><div>
</div><div>
<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2012W45/" target="_blank">Skyfall (2012)</a>: $88,364,714</div><div>
<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2015W45/" target="_blank">Spectre (2015)</a>: $70,403,148</div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)" with a closing date of 11 October 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-11T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-04T14:52:27.804Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5231, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 482, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2030, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:34.830Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:34.831Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-11T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-04T14:52:27.826Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5232, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 482, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2030, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:39.118Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:39.119Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-11T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-04T14:52:27.848Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5233, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 482, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2030, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:30.903Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:30.905Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 504, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise (<a href=\"https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2382320/\" target=\"_blank\">IMDb</a>). The outcome will be determined with \"Domestic Weekend\" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo (<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4077159937/\" target=\"_blank\">Box Office Mojo</a>). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled:</p><p> \r\n \r\n </p><div>\r\n</div><div>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2012W45/\" target=\"_blank\">Skyfall (2012)</a>: $88,364,714</div><div>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2015W45/\" target=\"_blank\">Spectre (2015)</a>: $70,403,148</div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)\" with a closing date of 11 October 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-10-08T07:01:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2030, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:16.446+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:49.418+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 482, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 134, "published_at": "2021-06-04T15:33:05.941Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-12T14:04:39.130Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-10-08T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-04T10:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-04T17:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2115 |
<p>In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/23/business/global-supply-chains-christmas-shipping/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-08-25/supply-chain-problem-port-delays" target="_blank">Los Angeles Times</a>, <a href="https://time.com/6091238/supply-chain-gene-seroka-port-of-los-angeles/" target="_blank">Time</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (<a href="https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2021" target="_blank">Port of Los Angeles</a>). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:06:03.793Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5500, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 800,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 75, "predictions_count": 393, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2115, "question_name": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:24.773Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:24.774Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:06:03.815Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5501, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 75, "predictions_count": 393, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2115, "question_name": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:27.065Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:27.066Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:06:03.831Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5502, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 75, "predictions_count": 393, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2115, "question_name": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:29.767Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:29.768Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:06:03.847Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5503, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1,000,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 75, "predictions_count": 393, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2115, "question_name": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:32.227Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:32.228Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 437, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/23/business/global-supply-chains-christmas-shipping/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-08-25/supply-chain-problem-port-delays\" target=\"_blank\">Los Angeles Times</a>, <a href=\"https://time.com/6091238/supply-chain-gene-seroka-port-of-los-angeles/\" target=\"_blank\">Time</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (<a href=\"https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2021\" target=\"_blank\">Port of Los Angeles</a>). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-01T08:01:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2115, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:11.432+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:58.727+00:00"}, "name": "How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 393, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 75, "published_at": "2021-09-03T14:06:03.941Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:41:32.236Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-09-03T10:00:19.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-09-03T17:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2600 |
<p>The Omicron subvariant "XBB" has made headlines as a so-called "nightmare" variant that has spread quickly in Asia and beyond (<a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/is-there-a-nightmare-covid-variant-spreading-right-now-heres-what-to-know-for-chicago-area/2974452/" target="_blank">NBC Chicago</a>, <a href="https://sg.news.yahoo.com/xbb-strain-covid-spot-symptoms-100000280.html" target="_blank">Yahoo News</a>, <a href="https://tools.cdc.gov/api/v2/resources/media/405865/html" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/06/bq11-omicron-variants-splintering-covid-next-phase/" target="_blank">STAT</a>). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, other Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 8 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 11 November 2022</span>: Any XBB sublineages would count. Whether an identified variant is considered to be XBB or a sublineage of XBB is dependent on the classification by the CDC.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 2 January 2023</span>: The aggregate of XBB and its sublineages (e.g., XBB.1.5) would count.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023" with a closing date of 10 February 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-10T19:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T21:59:36.331Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7350, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The week ending 3 December 2022 or before", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2600, "question_name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:29.939Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:29.940Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-10T19:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T21:59:36.341Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7351, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A week ending between 10 December 2022 and 14 January 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2600, "question_name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:27.228Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:27.229Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-10T19:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T21:59:36.348Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7352, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2600, "question_name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:31.406Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:31.407Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-10T19:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T21:59:36.356Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7353, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A week ending between 4 March 2023 and 8 April 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2600, "question_name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:28.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:28.556Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-10T19:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T21:59:36.363Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7354, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 9 April 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2600, "question_name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:32.777Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:32.778Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 242, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-06T21:08:23.665Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 35, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "67%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The Omicron subvariant \"XBB\" has made headlines as a so-called \"nightmare\" variant that has spread quickly in Asia and beyond (<a href=\"https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/is-there-a-nightmare-covid-variant-spreading-right-now-heres-what-to-know-for-chicago-area/2974452/\" target=\"_blank\">NBC Chicago</a>, <a href=\"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/xbb-strain-covid-spot-symptoms-100000280.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo News</a>, <a href=\"https://tools.cdc.gov/api/v2/resources/media/405865/html\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/06/bq11-omicron-variants-splintering-covid-next-phase/\" target=\"_blank\">STAT</a>). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, other Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see \"%Total\"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached\u2014and weeks including \"Nowcast\" estimates (i.e., columns with \"NOWCAST\" at the top) would count\u2014or else the week ending 8 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 11 November 2022</span>: Any XBB sublineages would count. Whether an identified variant is considered to be XBB or a sublineage of XBB is dependent on the classification by the CDC.</p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 2 January 2023</span>: The aggregate of XBB and its sublineages (e.g., XBB.1.5) would count.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023\" with a closing date of 10 February 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-09T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2600, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 220, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 32, "published_at": "2022-10-28T13:46:49.438Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-10T21:58:32.785Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-28T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-28T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1408 |
<p>Nepal plans to conduct the census in March-April 2019, as there are concerns regarding the Indian rhinoceros population in the region (<a href="https://english.khabarhub.com/2019/15/55120/" target="_blank">Khabarhub</a>, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/nepal-to-conduct-self-fund-rhino-census-in-march-2020/" target="_blank">Mongabay</a>, <a href="https://english.onlinekhabar.com/nepal-rhino-census-to-begin-on-march-14-2020.html" target="_blank">Online Khabar</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:34:30.069Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3137, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, counting less than 550 Indian rhinoceros", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1408, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:59:33.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.046Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:34:30.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3138, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, counting between 550 and 600 Indian rhinoceros", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1408, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:58:20.228Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:34:30.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3139, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, counting more than 600 but less than 650 Indian rhinoceros", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1408, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:56:53.608Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.481Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:34:30.226Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3140, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, counting 650 or more Indian rhinoceros", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1408, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:55:12.210Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.616Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-29T02:34:30.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3141, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1408, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:53:55.356Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.750Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 420, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-01T18:32:08.106Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 90, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "58%", "description": "\r\n <p>Nepal plans to conduct the census in March-April 2019, as there are concerns regarding the Indian rhinoceros population in the region (<a href=\"https://english.khabarhub.com/2019/15/55120/\" target=\"_blank\">Khabarhub</a>, <a href=\"https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/nepal-to-conduct-self-fund-rhino-census-in-march-2020/\" target=\"_blank\">Mongabay</a>, <a href=\"https://english.onlinekhabar.com/nepal-rhino-census-to-begin-on-march-14-2020.html\" target=\"_blank\">Online Khabar</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-07-01T06:59:05.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1408, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:30.710+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:09:29.317+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:57:54.191+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:43:43.541+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 407, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 192, "published_at": "2019-11-29T15:55:54.926Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:59:33.215Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-11-29T10:00:05.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-11-29T18:00:05.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.092Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2063 |
<p>New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/nyregion/new-york-city-eviction-moratorium.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-york-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-government-and-politics-adc276892d87afbdfff9e1a7f750f91e" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/the-eviction-moratorium-is-killing-small-landlords-says-one.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (<a href="https://evictionlab.org/eviction-tracking/get-the-data/" target="_blank">Eviction Lab</a>). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with "New York" under the "Site" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the "filings_2020" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 60,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-02T16:11:09.812Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5341, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 60,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 259, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2063, "question_name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:40.159Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:40.160Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-02T16:11:09.844Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5342, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 259, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2063, "question_name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:49.560Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:49.561Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-02T16:11:09.873Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5343, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 259, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2063, "question_name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:58.858Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-18T15:31:58.859Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-02T16:11:09.902Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5344, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 259, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2063, "question_name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:32:17.660Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-18T15:32:17.661Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-02T16:11:09.933Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5345, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 240,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 259, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2063, "question_name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:32:07.704Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-18T15:32:07.706Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 266, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-09-05T11:17:08.999Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 118, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "36%", "description": "\r\n <p>New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/nyregion/new-york-city-eviction-moratorium.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/new-york-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-government-and-politics-adc276892d87afbdfff9e1a7f750f91e\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/the-eviction-moratorium-is-killing-small-landlords-says-one.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (<a href=\"https://evictionlab.org/eviction-tracking/get-the-data/\" target=\"_blank\">Eviction Lab</a>). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with \"New York\" under the \"Site\" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the \"filings_2020\" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 60,000\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2063, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:17.136+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:52.231+00:00"}, "name": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 259, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 46, "published_at": "2021-07-02T16:20:41.032Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-18T15:32:17.685Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-02T10:00:34.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-02T17:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2738 |
<p>Used car prices soared as inflation his across the US economy, though they are off their historic highs in late 2022 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/some-unusual-products-have-seen-their-prices-soar-and-plunge" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/used-car-prices-are-down-3point3percent-from-a-year-ago-per-inflation-data.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (<a href="https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html" target="_blank">Manheim</a>). As of 27 January 2023, the value for June 2022 was 239.9.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 28 January 2023</span>: The typo in the highest bin has been fixed.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 210.0 but less than 225.0" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7867, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 165.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:36.366Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:36.367Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7868, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 165.0 and 180.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:30.205Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:30.206Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.885Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7869, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180.0 but less than 195.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:32.204Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:32.204Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.893Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7870, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 195.0 and 210.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:38.586Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:38.587Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.902Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7871, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 210.0 but less than 225.0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:40.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:40.682Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.911Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7872, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 225.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2738, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:34.274Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:34.275Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 325, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-20T05:49:02.698Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 43, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "72%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Used car prices soared as inflation his across the US economy, though they are off their historic highs in late 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/some-unusual-products-have-seen-their-prices-soar-and-plunge\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/used-car-prices-are-down-3point3percent-from-a-year-ago-per-inflation-data.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (<a href=\"https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Manheim</a>). As of 27 January 2023, the value for June 2022 was 239.9.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 28 January 2023</span>: The typo in the highest bin has been fixed.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 210.0 but less than 225.0\" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2738, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 321, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2023-01-27T21:20:07.987Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:40.689Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-27T13:20:07.987-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-27T21:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3028 |
<p>In September 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") began targeted strikes against the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/live-blog/uaw-strike-ford-general-motors-stellantis-live-updates-rcna105134" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/uaw-strikes-everything-you-need-to-know.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html" target="_blank">Key Differences</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023" with a closing date of 30 October 2023. This is due to the return to work by all UAW employees per the UAW and reporting from the Big 3, the last being General Motors.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-30T22:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:59:26.728Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9170, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 29 September 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3028, "question_name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:18.394Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:18.395Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-30T22:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:59:26.738Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9171, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 29 September 2023 and 12 October 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3028, "question_name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:12.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:12.601Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-30T22:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:59:26.745Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9172, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3028, "question_name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:15.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:15.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-30T22:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:59:26.753Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9173, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10 November 2023 and 21 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3028, "question_name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:10.151Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:10.152Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-30T22:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:59:26.760Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9174, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 22 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3028, "question_name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:07.534Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:07.535Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 247, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-09-28T02:01:04.449Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 33, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "\r\n <p>In September 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") began targeted strikes against the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/live-blog/uaw-strike-ford-general-motors-stellantis-live-updates-rcna105134\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/uaw-strikes-everything-you-need-to-know.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html\" target=\"_blank\">Key Differences</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023\" with a closing date of 30 October 2023. This is due to the return to work by all UAW employees per the UAW and reporting from the Big 3, the last being General Motors.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-22T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3028, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 239, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 50, "published_at": "2023-09-22T14:26:36.501Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-31T21:46:18.418Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2522 |
<p>As China continues to deal with COVID outbreaks and a distressed property market, its economic growth has slowed (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/china-should-be-more-aggressive-in-response-to-slow-growth-investor.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/25/china-touts-fiscal-monetary-policies-revive-flagging-economy" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/chinas-economy-is-losing-momentum-what-is-happening-and-why-does-it-matter-for-australia" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2023 (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.928Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7047, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 0.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:08.357Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:08.358Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.937Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7048, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:11.712Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:11.712Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.943Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7049, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:00.570Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:00.570Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.950Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7050, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:05.643Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:05.644Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.957Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7051, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:58:38.836Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:58:38.837Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T14:08:00.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7052, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "8.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2522, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:03.315Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:03.316Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 246, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-08-26T17:40:11.536Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 128, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>As China continues to deal with COVID outbreaks and a distressed property market, its economic growth has slowed (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/china-should-be-more-aggressive-in-response-to-slow-growth-investor.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/25/china-touts-fiscal-monetary-policies-revive-flagging-economy\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/chinas-economy-is-losing-momentum-what-is-happening-and-why-does-it-matter-for-australia\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2522, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 246, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 54, "published_at": "2022-08-26T16:07:21.272Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-17T21:59:11.725Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-08-26T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-08-26T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940 |
<p>The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" target="_blank">BLS</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm" target="_blank">BLS - Release Schedule</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 5.4%" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T15:34:05.505Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4841, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5.4%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 853, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1940, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:14.662Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:14.663Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T15:34:05.550Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4842, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 853, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1940, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:45:52.195Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-03T14:45:52.196Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T15:34:05.578Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4843, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 853, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1940, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:45:57.784Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-03T14:45:57.785Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T15:34:05.605Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4844, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 853, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1940, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:03.345Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:03.346Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T15:34:05.655Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4845, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 7.1%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 853, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1940, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:08.850Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:08.850Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 855, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-08-23T03:54:00.470Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href=\"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS - Release Schedule</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 5.4%\" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-09-01T07:01:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1940, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:27.058+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:36.380+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 853, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 177, "published_at": "2021-02-19T17:48:02.922Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-03T14:46:14.671Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-19T10:00:16.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-19T18:00:16.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.177Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1751 |
<p>
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (<a href="https://rt.live" target="_blank">Rt.live</a>). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https://rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "23 or more" with a closing date of 11 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-11T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-18T16:13:58.324Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4311, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 598, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1751, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:07.820Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:07.823Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-11T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-18T16:13:58.349Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4312, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8 and 12", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 598, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1751, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:21.190Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:21.192Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-11T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-18T16:13:58.375Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4313, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13 and 17", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 598, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1751, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:32.745Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:32.748Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-11T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-18T16:13:58.400Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4314, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18 and 22", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 598, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1751, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:27:55.018Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-11T22:27:55.020Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-11T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-18T16:13:58.425Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4315, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "23 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 598, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1751, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:27:42.768Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-11T22:27:42.771Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 612, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-07T15:27:35.903Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 126, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "\r\n <p>\r\n The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (<a href=\"https://rt.live\" target=\"_blank\">Rt.live</a>). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https://rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"23 or more\" with a closing date of 11 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-01-11T08:01:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1751, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:40.768+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:26.406+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:59:46.763+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:50:43.116+00:00"}, "name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 598, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 118, "published_at": "2020-08-18T16:54:24.958Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-11T22:28:32.769Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-01-11T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-18T10:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-18T17:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2657 |
<p>While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-30/factbox-what-are-russia-and-ukraines-positions-on-talks-to-end-the-war" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/analysis-should-ukraine-negotiate-with-russia-/6848064.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 19 August 2023" with a closing date of 19 August 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-19T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:51:15.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7571, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 26 February 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1396, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2657, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:32.750Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:32.750Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-19T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:51:15.146Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7572, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1396, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2657, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:07.898Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:07.900Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-19T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:51:15.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7573, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1396, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2657, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:20.204Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:20.205Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-19T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:51:15.164Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7574, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 19 August 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1396, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2657, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-19T21:04:55.723Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-19T21:04:55.724Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1489, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-02T18:02:06.040Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 260, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-30/factbox-what-are-russia-and-ukraines-positions-on-talks-to-end-the-war\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.voanews.com/a/analysis-should-ukraine-negotiate-with-russia-/6848064.html\" target=\"_blank\">Voice of America</a>). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 19 August 2023\" with a closing date of 19 August 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p> ", "ends_at": "2023-08-19T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2657, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1396, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 496, "published_at": "2022-12-02T16:06:23.109Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-19T21:05:32.764Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-08-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-02T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-02T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850 |
<p>After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year" target="_blank">Economist</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (<a href="http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01" target="_blank">National Bureau of Statistics</a>). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 9 March 2021</span>: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-15T02:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:22:39.692Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4608, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 294, "predictions_count": 951, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1850, "question_name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:35.783Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:35.785Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-15T02:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:22:39.718Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4609, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 294, "predictions_count": 951, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1850, "question_name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:45.842Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:45.843Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-15T02:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:22:39.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4610, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 294, "predictions_count": 951, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1850, "question_name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:15:55.276Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-16T15:15:55.278Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-15T02:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:22:39.767Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4611, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 294, "predictions_count": 951, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1850, "question_name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:07.602Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:07.603Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-15T02:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:22:39.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4612, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 294, "predictions_count": 951, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1850, "question_name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:22.923Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:22.926Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 986, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-17T11:22:15.926Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 75, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "65%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (<a href=\"http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01\" target=\"_blank\">National Bureau of Statistics</a>). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 9 March 2021</span>: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1850, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:04.971+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:27.193+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T01:58:00.563+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T01:56:28.698+00:00"}, "name": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 951, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 294, "published_at": "2020-11-27T16:37:02.969Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-16T15:16:45.851Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-27T10:00:28.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-27T18:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.182Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1666 | <p>A mid-June cluster of new COVID-19 cases in Beijing has sparked concerns over a new wave of infections in China (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/coronavirus-beijing-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 August 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO Situation Reports</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" target="_blank">WHO</a>). As of 18 June 2020, WHO reported a total of 84,903 confirmed cases.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 August 2020</span>: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (</span></span><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200810-covid-19-sitrep-203.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (</span></span><a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">COVID-19 global dashboard</a>)<span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">. The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 20 August 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.</span></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 88,000 but less than 92,000" with a closing date of 20 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:49:03.337Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4043, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 86,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 1003, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1666, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:10.575Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.046Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:49:03.358Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4044, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 86,000 and 88,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 1003, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1666, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:29.614Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.127Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:49:03.378Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4045, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 88,000 but less than 92,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 1003, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1666, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:36.990Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:49:03.397Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4046, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 92,000 and 100,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 1003, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1666, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:44.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.289Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:49:03.417Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4047, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 1003, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1666, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:20.028Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.358Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1036, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-25T16:24:01.599Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 25, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "59%", "description": " <p>A mid-June cluster of new COVID-19 cases in Beijing has sparked concerns over a new wave of infections in China (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/coronavirus-beijing-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 August 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO Situation Reports</a>, <a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). As of 18 June 2020, WHO reported a total of 84,903 confirmed cases.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 17 August 2020</span>: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (</span></span><a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200810-covid-19-sitrep-203.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\">, see first entry under \"Highlights\") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (</span></span><a href=\"https://covid19.who.int/\" target=\"_blank\">COVID-19 global dashboard</a>)<span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\">. The data provided on WHO's \"COVID-19 global dashboard\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 20 August 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.</span></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 88,000 but less than 92,000\" with a closing date of 20 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-08-20T06:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1666, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:11.103+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:17.968+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:44:04.969+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:25:02.934+00:00"}, "name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1003, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 154, "published_at": "2020-06-19T16:57:25.803Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-20T21:34:44.760Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-08-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-19T10:00:02.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-19T17:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1560 | <p>The COVID-19 outbreak has already impacted the 2020 season of Formula 1 auto racing in China and Bahrain (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/motorsport/bahrain-grand-prix-formula-one-coronavirus-spt-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/racing/formula-1/a31259594/coronavirus-could-wreak-havoc-on-the-2020-formula-1-season/" target="_blank">Autoweek</a>). The Monaco Grand Prix is currently scheduled for 22-24 May 2020 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/race-calendar" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.dutch-spanish-and-monaco-grands-prix-postponed.5CggooJeHoDchKkFehkrkY.html" target="_blank">Formula1</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-19T20:18:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-12T23:18:31.089Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3659, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 139, "predictions_count": 211, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1560, "question_name": "Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T20:19:15.821Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:17.577Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-19T20:18:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-12T23:18:31.117Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3660, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, but public attendance will be restricted", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 139, "predictions_count": 211, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1560, "question_name": "Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T20:19:09.047Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:17.682Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-19T20:18:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-12T23:18:31.144Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3661, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, and public attendance will not be restricted", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 139, "predictions_count": 211, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1560, "question_name": "Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T20:19:04.485Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:17.769Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 213, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-13T17:05:48.783Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The COVID-19 outbreak has already impacted the 2020 season of Formula 1 auto racing in China and Bahrain (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/motorsport/bahrain-grand-prix-formula-one-coronavirus-spt-intl/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.autoweek.com/racing/formula-1/a31259594/coronavirus-could-wreak-havoc-on-the-2020-formula-1-season/\" target=\"_blank\">Autoweek</a>). The Monaco Grand Prix is currently scheduled for 22-24 May 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/race-calendar\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes\" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.dutch-spanish-and-monaco-grands-prix-postponed.5CggooJeHoDchKkFehkrkY.html\" target=\"_blank\">Formula1</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-05-22T06:59:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1560, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:19:01.028+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:36.432+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T16:49:28.624+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T16:47:48.695+00:00"}, "name": "Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 211, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 139, "published_at": "2020-03-13T16:54:42.351Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T20:19:15.885Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-13T10:00:08.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-13T17:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2775 |
<p>With the car market cooling down as supply chain woes ease and interest rates rising, Carvana is facing various struggles (<a href="https://www.thedrive.com/news/it-can-get-worse-for-carvana-and-it-is" target="_blank">The Drive</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/carvana-tale-debt-losses-looks-143000899.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-news/carvana-bankruptcy-concerns-what-they-mean-for-shoppers/" target="_blank">Kelly Blue Book</a>). The question would close early upon a bankruptcy filing from Carvana in the US or an announcement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that a party or parties has agreed to either merge with or purchase the whole company.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Neither will occur before 1 August 2023" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-03T15:24:08.291Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7983, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Carvana will file for bankruptcy in the US", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 167, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2775, "question_name": "What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:11:41.306Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:11:41.310Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-03T15:24:08.300Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7984, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Carvana will announce an agreement that it will either merge with or be acquired by another firm", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 167, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2775, "question_name": "What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:10:56.654Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:10:56.655Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-03T15:24:08.309Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7985, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Neither will occur before 1 August 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 167, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2775, "question_name": "What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:11:15.524Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:11:15.525Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 167, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-04T01:11:08.513Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 151, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>With the car market cooling down as supply chain woes ease and interest rates rising, Carvana is facing various struggles (<a href=\"https://www.thedrive.com/news/it-can-get-worse-for-carvana-and-it-is\" target=\"_blank\">The Drive</a>, <a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/now/carvana-tale-debt-losses-looks-143000899.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href=\"https://www.kbb.com/car-news/carvana-bankruptcy-concerns-what-they-mean-for-shoppers/\" target=\"_blank\">Kelly Blue Book</a>). The question would close early upon a bankruptcy filing from Carvana in the US or an announcement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that a party or parties has agreed to either merge with or purchase the whole company.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Neither will occur before 1 August 2023\" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-08-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2775, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 167, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 70, "published_at": "2023-03-03T15:45:43.343Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:11:41.359Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790 |
<p>The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (<a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/" target="_blank">UEFA</a>, <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/" target="_blank">UEFA (Clubs)</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "England" with a closing date of 29 May 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4443, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "England", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:47.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:47.602Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4444, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "France", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:09.556Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:09.558Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4445, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Germany", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:54:44.004Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:54:44.006Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.309Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4446, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Italy", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:18.077Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:18.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4447, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Spain", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:54:56.978Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:54:56.979Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.385Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4448, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another country", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:56:02.269Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:56:02.272Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-29T19:30:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:00:06.422Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4449, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1790, "question_name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:29.388Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-29T21:55:29.390Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 743, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-01T22:59:56.088Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 117, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "54%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atat\u00fcrk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/\" target=\"_blank\">UEFA</a>, <a href=\"https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/\" target=\"_blank\">UEFA (Clubs)</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"England\" with a closing date of 29 May 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-05-29T07:01:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1790, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:13.805+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:04.787+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:04:10.588+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:56:44.529+00:00"}, "name": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 692, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 151, "published_at": "2020-09-18T16:49:42.811Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-29T21:56:02.291Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-05-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-09-18T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-09-18T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2691 |
<p>As of late afternoon on 4 January 2023, the House of Representatives has held six votes to elect a Speaker of the House, which is necessary before other House business may proceed (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64159615" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3798410-why-lawmakers-can-vote-for-house-speaker-before-taking-their-oath-of-office/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). If a Speaker of the House is elected on 4 January 2023 (PT), the question will be voided.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.9;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Kevin McCarthy" with a closing date of 6 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.146Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7695, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Hakeem Jeffries", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:04.018Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:04.019Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.160Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7696, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jim Jordan", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:05.607Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:05.607Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.169Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7697, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Kevin McCarthy", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:02.437Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:02.438Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.178Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7698, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Steve Scalise", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:00.885Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:00.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7699, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:57:59.301Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:57:59.301Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-07T06:28:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.196Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7700, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No one will be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives before 21 January 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2691, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:57:57.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-07T16:57:57.282Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 278, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-05T00:41:52.657Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>As of late afternoon on 4 January 2023, the House of Representatives has held six votes to elect a Speaker of the House, which is necessary before other House business may proceed (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64159615\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3798410-why-lawmakers-can-vote-for-house-speaker-before-taking-their-oath-of-office/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). If a Speaker of the House is elected on 4 January 2023 (PT), the question will be voided.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.9;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Kevin McCarthy\" with a closing date of 6 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-21T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2691, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 221, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 81, "published_at": "2023-01-05T00:12:22.284Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-07T16:58:05.615Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-06T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-04T16:12:22.284-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-05T00:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2190 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the "Close" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Historical Data for SHIBA INU" the morning of 1 September 2022 (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/historical-data/" target="_blank">CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu</a>). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than $15 billion" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5779, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $15 billion", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:42.232Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:42.232Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.349Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5780, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:55.258Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:55.259Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.365Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5781, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:50.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:50.220Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.382Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5782, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:52.754Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:52.754Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.398Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5783, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:44.767Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:44.767Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-01T14:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:45:32.415Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5784, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$55 billion or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 53, "predictions_count": 421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2190, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:47.498Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:47.500Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 421, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-15T18:18:57.972Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 289, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the \"Close\" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data for SHIBA INU\" the morning of 1 September 2022 (<a href=\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/historical-data/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu</a>). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than $15 billion\" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-08-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2190, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:29.957+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:21:51.485+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 421, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 53, "published_at": "2021-11-12T15:00:32.222Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T14:34:55.267Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1648 |
<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2020 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2020 to 30 November 2020, will be busier than average (<a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020" target="_blank">NOAA</a>). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center - Reports</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "6 or more" with a closing date of 15 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-16T06:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T16:10:58.577Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3997, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 1476, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1648, "question_name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:09:49.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.791Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-16T06:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T16:10:58.599Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3998, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 1476, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1648, "question_name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:10:02.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.922Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-16T06:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T16:10:58.620Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3999, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 1476, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1648, "question_name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:09:26.273Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.118Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-16T06:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T16:10:58.641Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4000, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 1476, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1648, "question_name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:09:37.046Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.275Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-16T06:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T16:10:58.662Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4001, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "6 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 1476, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1648, "question_name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:10:14.726Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.390Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1623, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2020 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2020 to 30 November 2020, will be busier than average (<a href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020\" target=\"_blank\">NOAA</a>). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (<a href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc\" target=\"_blank\">National Hurricane Center</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/\" target=\"_blank\">National Hurricane Center - Reports</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"6 or more\" with a closing date of 15 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-12-01T08:01:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1648, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:08.534+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:23.500+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:26:28.058+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:04:52.376+00:00"}, "name": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1476, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 301, "published_at": "2020-06-05T16:56:49.167Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T18:10:14.748Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-15T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-05T10:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-05T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2289 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of 24 February 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.1%. The data for 31 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 5 August 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T02:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:22:59.260Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6108, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 35.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 822, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2289, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:22.133Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:22.133Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T02:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:22:59.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6109, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 822, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2289, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:11.855Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:11.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T02:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:22:59.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6110, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 822, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2289, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:17.010Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:17.011Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T02:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:22:59.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6111, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 822, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2289, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:27.139Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:27.140Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T02:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:22:59.353Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6112, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 50.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 822, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2289, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:06.553Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:06.554Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 823, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-18T22:17:31.614Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 43, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (<a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of 24 February 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.1%. The data for 31 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 5 August 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2289, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 822, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 144, "published_at": "2022-03-04T15:50:30.978Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-05T21:40:27.147Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-07-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-04T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-04T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2382 |
<p>Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (<a href="https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3472242-younger-voters-poised-to-have-high-turnout-at-midterms-poll/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-draft-opinion-abortion-reactions-00029518" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (<a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data" target="_blank">United States Elections Project</a>). The data will be linked as "General" next to "2022" and found under the "VEP Highest Office" (title may vary) column for "United States," typically in the first row (<a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/faq/numerator" target="_blank">United States Elections Project - Numerator</a>, <a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/faq/denominator" target="_blank">United States Elections Project - Denominator</a>). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 9 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6453, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 36.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:54.166Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:54.167Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.147Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6454, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:34.682Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:34.683Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6455, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 40.0% but less than 44.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:17:23.596Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:17:23.596Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.164Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6456, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:17:47.302Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:17:47.303Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.171Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6457, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:03.129Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:03.130Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:28:26.180Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6458, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "52.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2382, "question_name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:19.018Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:19.018Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 381, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3472242-younger-voters-poised-to-have-high-turnout-at-midterms-poll/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-draft-opinion-abortion-reactions-00029518\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (<a href=\"http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data\" target=\"_blank\">United States Elections Project</a>). The data will be linked as \"General\" next to \"2022\" and found under the \"VEP Highest Office\" (title may vary) column for \"United States,\" typically in the first row (<a href=\"http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/faq/numerator\" target=\"_blank\">United States Elections Project - Numerator</a>, <a href=\"http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/faq/denominator\" target=\"_blank\">United States Elections Project - Denominator</a>). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 9 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2382, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:35.522+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:11.181+00:00"}, "name": "What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 379, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 88, "published_at": "2022-05-06T15:32:39.663Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T19:18:54.208Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-05-06T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-05-06T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3090 | <p>After three weeks without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted in early October 2023, House Republicans elected Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the post (<a href="https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house" target="_blank">House.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/house-speaker-race-vote-live-updates-rcna122020" target="_blank">NBC News</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-02T21:28:32.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "13%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9413, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 4 March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.13, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.13, "probability_formatted": "13%", "question_id": 3090, "question_name": "When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:38:31.344Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-02T21:28:32.310Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9414, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4 March 2024 and 4 July 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.12, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.12, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3090, "question_name": "When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:38:31.334Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-02T21:28:32.318Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9415, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5 July 2024 and 4 November 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.12, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.12, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3090, "question_name": "When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:38:31.348Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-02T21:28:32.325Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "63%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9416, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 5 November 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.63, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.63, "probability_formatted": "63%", "question_id": 3090, "question_name": "When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:38:31.339Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 152, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>After three weeks without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted in early October 2023, House Republicans elected Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the post (<a href=\"https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house\" target=\"_blank\">House.gov</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/house-speaker-race-vote-live-updates-rcna122020\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-11-05T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3090, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 144, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 56, "published_at": "2023-11-03T14:57:39.628Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-03T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-03T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:38:34.307Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2910 |
<p>The Republican National Committee has announced the first Republican presidential primary debate with new, minimum standards for participation (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-debate-milwaukee-presidential-primary/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/02/first-gop-debate-qualification-00100080" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The first Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 23 August 2023 in Milwaukee, WI, with another planned for 24 August 2023 should enough candidates qualify (<a href="https://gop.com/press-release/rnc-announces-criteria-and-date-for-first-debate-in-milwaukee/" target="_blank">GOP.com</a>). For the purposes of this question, a split between two or more days would be considered a single debate. If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "7 or 8" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.522Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8627, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:41.449Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:41.450Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.541Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8628, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:39.178Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:39.179Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.551Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8629, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7 or 8", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:35.164Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:35.165Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.559Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8630, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "9 or 10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:33.233Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:33.234Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.567Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8631, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "11 or 12", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:37.162Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:37.163Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:10:50.576Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8632, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "13 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2910, "question_name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:31.172Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:31.173Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 289, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-07-28T08:35:14.374Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 26, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "62%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Republican National Committee has announced the first Republican presidential primary debate with new, minimum standards for participation (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-debate-milwaukee-presidential-primary/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/02/first-gop-debate-qualification-00100080\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). The first Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 23 August 2023 in Milwaukee, WI, with another planned for 24 August 2023 should enough candidates qualify (<a href=\"https://gop.com/press-release/rnc-announces-criteria-and-date-for-first-debate-in-milwaukee/\" target=\"_blank\">GOP.com</a>). For the purposes of this question, a split between two or more days would be considered a single debate. If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"7 or 8\" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-08-23T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2910, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 268, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2023-06-16T16:24:36.731Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-24T13:31:41.458Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-08-23T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-16T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-16T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.751Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1810 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 20 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-20T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-15T14:08:23.951Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4504, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $400.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1810, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:30:15.210Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:09.115Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-20T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-15T14:08:23.970Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4505, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $400.00 and $440.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1810, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:29:30.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:09.201Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-20T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-15T14:08:23.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4506, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $440.00 but less than $480.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1810, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:29:50.755Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:33.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-20T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-15T14:08:24.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4507, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1810, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:29:56.189Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:33.960Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-20T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-15T14:08:24.031Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4508, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $520.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1810, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:30:02.213Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:09.418Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 507, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-11-19T16:10:36.757Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "97%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive\" with a closing date of 20 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-11-20T08:01:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1810, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:33:53.692+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:48.102+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:19:25.322+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:06:35.208+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 503, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 109, "published_at": "2020-10-15T16:49:38.913Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-20T22:30:15.302Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-20T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-10-15T10:00:48.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-10-15T17:00:48.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1421 |
<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 28-29 April 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 29 April 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T21:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:43:31.846Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3166, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 523, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1421, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-29T21:44:39.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:56.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T21:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:43:31.864Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3167, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 523, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1421, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-29T21:44:27.216Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:57.537Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-29T21:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-12T19:43:31.888Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3168, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 523, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1421, "question_name": "At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-29T21:44:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:58.108Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 558, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-12-13T18:33:39.188Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 137, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 28-29 April 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 29 April 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-04-29T06:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1421, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:07.900+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:18.437+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T18:32:29.139+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:29:26.147+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 523, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 198, "published_at": "2019-12-13T18:03:14.169Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-29T21:44:39.701Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-13T10:03:14.169-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-13T18:00:59.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2402 |
<p>In the wake of the collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD, which was intended to be pegged to the US dollar, the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, Tether, has been hit with volatility and withdrawals (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/22/first-mover-asia-terras-difficult-post-collapse-path-vcs-backing-away-regulators-jumping-on-stablecoins/" target="_blank">CoinDesk</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/tether-usdt-stablecoin-withdrawals-top-10-billion.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CoinMarketCap under "Historical Data" for Tether (USDT) for 27 November 2022 (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/historical-data/" target="_blank">CoinMarketCap</a>, see "Market Cap").</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 27 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.782Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6533, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $40 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:58.381Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:58.382Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.792Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6534, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:46.816Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:46.817Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.800Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6535, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $50 billion but less than $60 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:51.921Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:51.922Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.807Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6536, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:28:00.896Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:28:00.897Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.815Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6537, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $70 billion but less than $80 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:28:03.200Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:28:03.201Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.823Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6538, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $80 billion and $90 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:55.636Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:55.637Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.830Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6539, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $90 billion but less than $100 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:49.599Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:49.600Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-28T00:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:53:08.838Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6540, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$100 billion or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 358, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2402, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:44.360Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T14:27:44.360Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 380, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-13T10:04:55.726Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 167, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "\r\n <p>In the wake of the collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD, which was intended to be pegged to the US dollar, the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, Tether, has been hit with volatility and withdrawals (<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/22/first-mover-asia-terras-difficult-post-collapse-path-vcs-backing-away-regulators-jumping-on-stablecoins/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinDesk</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/tether-usdt-stablecoin-withdrawals-top-10-billion.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data\" for Tether (USDT) for 27 November 2022 (<a href=\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/historical-data/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinMarketCap</a>, see \"Market Cap\").</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive\" with a closing date of 27 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-27T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2402, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:26.278+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:02.417+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 358, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2022-05-27T13:45:30.320Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T14:28:03.209Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-05-27T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-05-27T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081 |
<p>While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">TSA</a>). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 April 2022" with a closing date of 30 March 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-30T14:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-23T14:27:52.725Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5400, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 October 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 498, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2081, "question_name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:10:54.755Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-31T16:10:54.756Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-30T14:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-23T14:27:52.754Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5401, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 498, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2081, "question_name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:00.319Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:00.321Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-30T14:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-23T14:27:52.781Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5402, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 498, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2081, "question_name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:12.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:12.791Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-30T14:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-23T14:27:52.809Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5403, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 498, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2081, "question_name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:06.822Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:06.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-30T14:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-23T14:27:52.836Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5404, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 April 2022", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 498, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2081, "question_name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:18.062Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:18.065Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 505, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-23T19:24:25.029Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 250, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (<a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (<a href=\"https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput\" target=\"_blank\">TSA</a>). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 April 2022\" with a closing date of 30 March 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-04-01T07:01:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2081, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:52.747+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:21.853+00:00"}, "name": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 498, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 97, "published_at": "2021-07-23T16:10:16.220Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-31T16:11:18.084Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-03-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-23T10:00:19.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-23T17:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1548 |
<p>When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yield-dips-to-lowest-level-since-october.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-may-be-losing-its-predictive-power-because-its-too-closely-watched-says-former-fed-official-2020-02-25" target="_blank">Market Watch</a>). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the "2 Yr" column with the value in the "10 Yr" column for each day (<a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield" target="_blank">Treasury.gov</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 August 2020" with a closing date of 1 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:40:38.488Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3621, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 15 March 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 299, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1548, "question_name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:55.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:13.889Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:40:38.533Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3622, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15 March 2020 and 30 April 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 299, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1548, "question_name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:43.610Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:14.082Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:40:38.576Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3623, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 May 2020 and 15 June 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 299, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1548, "question_name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:46.624Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:14.196Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:40:38.631Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3624, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 June 2020 and 31 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 299, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1548, "question_name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:49.469Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:14.306Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:40:38.681Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3625, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 August 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 299, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1548, "question_name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:52.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:14.426Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 307, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-02T04:40:42.757Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 152, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n <p>When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yield-dips-to-lowest-level-since-october.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-may-be-losing-its-predictive-power-because-its-too-closely-watched-says-former-fed-official-2020-02-25\" target=\"_blank\">Market Watch</a>). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the \"2 Yr\" column with the value in the \"10 Yr\" column for each day (<a href=\"https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield\" target=\"_blank\">Treasury.gov</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 August 2020\" with a closing date of 1 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-08-01T06:59:18.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1548, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:23.659+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:17:44.937+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:09:23.473+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:04:25.703+00:00"}, "name": "When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 299, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 96, "published_at": "2020-02-28T16:45:12.526Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T17:11:55.903Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-07-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-28T10:00:18.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-28T18:00:18.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1472 |
<p>Christine Lagarde became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in November 2019 at a time the eurozone faces various challenges, including how to balance a world of negative interest rates with an inflation target "below, but close to, 2% over the medium term" (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17328/edition2020christine-largarde-will-have-plenty-her-plate-ecb" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">ECB</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed upon the release of the relevant June (2020M06) Eurostat data for "Euro area (19 countries)" (<a href="https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en" target="_blank">Eurostat</a>). Estimates would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-27T17:29:57.881Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3280, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0.0% or less", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 413, "predictions_count": 1087, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1472, "question_name": "For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-17T18:42:25.155Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:38.517Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-27T17:29:57.906Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3281, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 413, "predictions_count": 1087, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1472, "question_name": "For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-17T18:42:40.075Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:38.680Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-27T17:29:57.923Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3282, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 413, "predictions_count": 1087, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1472, "question_name": "For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-17T18:43:03.552Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:38.822Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-27T17:29:57.939Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3283, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 413, "predictions_count": 1087, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1472, "question_name": "For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-17T18:43:15.364Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:38.975Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1166, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-22T15:57:22.032Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 100, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "46%", "description": "\r\n <p>Christine Lagarde became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in November 2019 at a time the eurozone faces various challenges, including how to balance a world of negative interest rates with an inflation target \"below, but close to, 2% over the medium term\" (<a href=\"https://worldin.economist.com/article/17328/edition2020christine-largarde-will-have-plenty-her-plate-ecb\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/html/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">ECB</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed upon the release of the relevant June (2020M06) Eurostat data for \"Euro area (19 countries)\" (<a href=\"https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en\" target=\"_blank\">Eurostat</a>). Estimates would not count.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-07-01T06:59:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1472, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:13:23.410+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:08.054+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:50:59.285+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:25:44.853+00:00"}, "name": "For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1087, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 413, "published_at": "2019-12-27T17:29:58.012Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-17T18:43:15.387Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-27T10:00:21.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-27T18:00:21.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.092Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1803 |
<p>After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft in March 2019 pending further investigations (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/14/703355742/with-grounding-of-boeing-737-max-fleet-where-does-that-leave-air-travelers" target="_blank">NPR</a>). While U.S., EU, and Canadian regulators have completed test flights key for recertification, it is not known when commercial flights will resume (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/boeings-737-max-inches-closer-recertification/story?id=72959619" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/business/faa-chief-boeing-737-test-flight/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206" target="_blank">FAA</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 October 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, "commercial flights" are flights with ticketed passengers. Cargo only flights would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 31 December 2020" with a closing date of 29 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-29T15:24:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T14:54:29.163Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4483, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 31 December 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1803, "question_name": "When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-29T16:33:44.803Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-29T16:33:44.872Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-29T15:24:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T14:54:29.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4484, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1803, "question_name": "When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-29T16:33:53.963Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-29T16:33:53.987Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-29T15:24:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T14:54:29.209Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4485, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1803, "question_name": "When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-29T16:34:02.244Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-29T16:34:02.257Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 431, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-10-22T15:57:58.672Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 68, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft in March 2019 pending further investigations (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2019/03/14/703355742/with-grounding-of-boeing-737-max-fleet-where-does-that-leave-air-travelers\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>). While U.S., EU, and Canadian regulators have completed test flights key for recertification, it is not known when commercial flights will resume (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/US/boeings-737-max-inches-closer-recertification/story?id=72959619\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/business/faa-chief-boeing-737-test-flight/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206\" target=\"_blank\">FAA</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 12 October 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, \"commercial flights\" are flights with ticketed passengers. Cargo only flights would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 31 December 2020\" with a closing date of 29 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1803, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:33:07.330+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:36.027+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:16:04.068+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:14:25.438+00:00"}, "name": "When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 367, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 82, "published_at": "2020-10-09T16:57:32.393Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-29T16:34:02.298Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-10-09T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-10-09T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2587 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 23 November 2022 and the outcome determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 24 October 2022 through and including 23 November 2022 (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv, right-click on the “Download” button for options to save the text file of data to your computer). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 23 October 2022 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 23 November 2022 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 28 November 2022. As of the launch of this question, the total number of new cases of COVID-19 between 24 October 2021 and 23 November 2021 was reported as 2,513,325. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000" with a closing date of 24 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.575Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7289, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 500,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:09.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:09.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.583Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7290, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 500,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:12.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:12.676Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.591Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7291, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:15.653Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:15.654Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.599Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7292, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,500,000 and 2,250,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:18.620Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:18.621Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.607Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7293, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2,250,000 but fewer than 3,250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:43:58.871Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:43:58.872Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.614Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7294, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3,250,000 and 4,750,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:01.576Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:01.576Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.622Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7295, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4,750,000 but fewer than 6,500,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:07.144Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:07.145Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-20T22:53:02.630Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7296, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "6,500,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 354, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2587, "question_name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:04.382Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:04.382Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 363, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-10-24T18:54:37.266Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 31, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 23 November 2022 and the outcome determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 24 October 2022 through and including 23 November 2022 (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv, right-click on the \u201cDownload\u201d button for options to save the text file of data to your computer). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 23 October 2022 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 23 November 2022 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 28 November 2022. As of the launch of this question, the total number of new cases of COVID-19 between 24 October 2021 and 23 November 2021 was reported as 2,513,325. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000\" with a closing date of 24 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2022-11-24T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2587, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 354, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 113, "published_at": "2022-10-24T14:59:44.763Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-28T20:44:18.630Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-24T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-24T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-03-09T16:40:51.988Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1504 | <p>The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/27/asia/china-wuhan-coronavirus-reaction-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523" target="_blank">BBC</a>). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 February 2020</span>: As WHO has begun reporting both "laboratory-confirmed" and "clinically diagnosed" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a19cf2ad_2" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">17 February Situation Report</a>.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 200,000" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200319-sitrep-59-covid-19.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:13:48.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3420, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 10,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 831, "predictions_count": 3268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1504, "question_name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:37:19.480Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:32.623Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:13:48.758Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3421, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 831, "predictions_count": 3268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1504, "question_name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:36:34.169Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:33.024Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:13:48.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3422, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 25,000 but less than 100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 831, "predictions_count": 3268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1504, "question_name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:36:06.511Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:33.278Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:13:48.825Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3423, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 831, "predictions_count": 3268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1504, "question_name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:35:22.680Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:33.594Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:13:48.858Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3424, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 200,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 831, "predictions_count": 3268, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1504, "question_name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:34:40.531Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:33.971Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 3772, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-14T02:13:16.771Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "88%", "description": "<p>The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/27/asia/china-wuhan-coronavirus-reaction-intl-hnk/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 17 February 2020</span>: As WHO has begun reporting both \"laboratory-confirmed\" and \"clinically diagnosed\" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the <a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a19cf2ad_2\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">17 February Situation Report</a>.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 200,000\" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200319-sitrep-59-covid-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-03-20T06:59:45.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1504, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:53.285+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:13:34.472+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:19:17.120+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:41:52.810+00:00"}, "name": "How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 3268, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 831, "published_at": "2020-01-28T17:35:10.441Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-20T13:37:19.510Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-28T10:00:45.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-28T18:00:45.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2820 |
<p>The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen from two-decade highs reached in 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/dollar-slides-on-sluggish-us-data-aussie-steadies-ahead-of-rba.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-an-epic-u-s-dollar-rally-could-be-a-wrecking-ball-for-financial-markets-11662057375" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NYICDX:INDEXNYSEGIS?hl=en&window=6M" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>, set to "6M"). On 5 April 2023, the closing value was 102.01.</p><p></p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 106.00" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.004Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8155, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 96.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:39:59.518Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:39:59.519Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8156, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 96.00 and 98.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:39:56.784Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:39:56.785Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8157, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 98.00 but less than 100.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:07.425Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:07.426Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.035Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8158, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100.00 and 102.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:11.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:11.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.041Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8159, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 102.00 but less than 104.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:03.401Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:03.402Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.048Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8160, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 104.00 and 106.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:14.303Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:14.304Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-29T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-07T01:54:14.055Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8161, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 106.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 511, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2820, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:17.700Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:17.701Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 514, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-09-26T18:58:50.637Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen from two-decade highs reached in 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/dollar-slides-on-sluggish-us-data-aussie-steadies-ahead-of-rba.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-an-epic-u-s-dollar-rally-could-be-a-wrecking-ball-for-financial-markets-11662057375\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NYICDX:INDEXNYSEGIS?hl=en&window=6M\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>, set to \"6M\"). On 5 April 2023, the closing value was 102.01.</p><p></p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 106.00\" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-09-29T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2820, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 511, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2023-04-07T16:04:48.448Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:40:17.711Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-04-07T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-04-07T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2690 |
<p>The airline industry is striving to return to pre-COVID levels of air traffic in 2023 (<a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/when-will-air-travel-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels/" target="_blank">Visual Capitalist</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-06/airlines-to-return-to-profitability-in-2023-iata" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">TSA</a>). Totals for the previous four first quarters were 189,566,760 in 2019; 153,166,437 in 2020; 86,850,884 in 2021; and 158,171,113 in 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.309Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7689, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 120 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:05.378Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:05.379Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.317Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7690, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 120 million and 140 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:09.199Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:09.200Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.324Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7691, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 140 million but fewer than 160 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:03.404Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:03.405Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.331Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7692, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 160 million and 180 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:12.703Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:12.703Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.338Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7693, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:10.995Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:10.995Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T15:40:23.346Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7694, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "200 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2690, "question_name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:07.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:07.281Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 285, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-14T22:36:30.693Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 77, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The airline industry is striving to return to pre-COVID levels of air traffic in 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/when-will-air-travel-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels/\" target=\"_blank\">Visual Capitalist</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-06/airlines-to-return-to-profitability-in-2023-iata\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (<a href=\"https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput\" target=\"_blank\">TSA</a>). Totals for the previous four first quarters were 189,566,760 in 2019; 153,166,437 in 2020; 86,850,884 in 2021; and 158,171,113 in 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2690, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 276, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 38, "published_at": "2022-12-30T15:56:29.615Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-02T19:35:12.711Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-30T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-30T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2508 |
<p>Amid a continued "Zero COVID" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (<a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-12/Chinese-aviation-passenger-traffic-down-51-9-in-first-half-of-2022-1bBmGyWKDks/index.html" target="_blank">CGTN</a>, <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/china-is-catching-up-hsbc-report-projects-strong-summer-recovery-for-big-three/149500.article" target="_blank">FlightGlobal</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (<a href="http://www.caac.gov.cn/en/HYYJ/SJ/index.html" target="_blank">CAAC</a>). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (<a href="http://www.caac.gov.cn/en/HYYJ/SJ/202202/P020220224413523167559.pdf" target="_blank">CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 October 2022</span>: We are aware of issues accessing the data on the CAAC site. We aren't certain of the cause, but are reviewing options. For the time being, the question will remain open.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 25 October 2022</span>: The CAAC site appears to be functioning again as before.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.319Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7003, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 20 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:43.054Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:43.060Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.328Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7004, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:41.562Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:41.563Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.335Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7005, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:46.146Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:46.147Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7006, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:44.468Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:44.469Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.350Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7007, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:39.964Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:39.965Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-05T14:41:24.357Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7008, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "100 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2508, "question_name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:47.685Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:47.686Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 195, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-11-27T04:01:41.443Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 36, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "76%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Amid a continued \"Zero COVID\" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (<a href=\"https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-12/Chinese-aviation-passenger-traffic-down-51-9-in-first-half-of-2022-1bBmGyWKDks/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CGTN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/china-is-catching-up-hsbc-report-projects-strong-summer-recovery-for-big-three/149500.article\" target=\"_blank\">FlightGlobal</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (<a href=\"http://www.caac.gov.cn/en/HYYJ/SJ/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CAAC</a>). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (<a href=\"http://www.caac.gov.cn/en/HYYJ/SJ/202202/P020220224413523167559.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 18 October 2022</span>: We are aware of issues accessing the data on the CAAC site. We aren't certain of the cause, but are reviewing options. For the time being, the question will remain open.</p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 25 October 2022</span>: The CAAC site appears to be functioning again as before.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2508, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:21:02.821+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:49.227+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 191, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 29, "published_at": "2022-08-05T17:02:37.757Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-07T15:06:47.697Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-08-05T10:02:37.757-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-08-05T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2762 |
<p>Beyond Meat, a firm that specializes in producing plant-based meat substitutes, has been dealing with various problems, including falling sales (<a href="https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/faqs" target="_blank">Beyond Meat</a>, <a href="https://www.costar.com/article/1344619066/beyond-meat-seeks-to-sublease-california-hq-space-as-sales-shrivel" target="_blank">CoStar</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/04/fake-meat-impossible-beyond-burger-crash" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/beyond-meat-lawsuit-protein-content-class-action-rcna68818" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 2 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by Beyond Meat in its first quarter 2023 financials, expected in May 2023 (<a href="https://investors.beyondmeat.com/financial-information/quarterly-results" target="_blank">Beyond Meat - Quarterly Results</a>). For the third quarter of 2022, the company reported total net revenues of $82,500 (thousands), or $82.5 million (<a href="https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results" target="_blank">Beyond Meat - Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results</a>). The company is scheduled to release earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022 on 23 February 2023 (<a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/02/09/2605483/0/en/Beyond-Meat-to-Report-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2022-Financial-Results-on-February-23-2023.html" target="_blank">Global News Wire</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 3 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:42:45.280Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7940, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $65 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2762, "question_name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:08.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:08.070Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:42:45.289Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7941, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $65 million and $75 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2762, "question_name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:05.609Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:05.610Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:42:45.296Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7942, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $75 million but less than $85 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2762, "question_name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:06.458Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:06.459Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:42:45.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7943, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2762, "question_name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:07.180Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:07.182Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:42:45.310Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7944, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $95 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2762, "question_name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:04.868Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:04.869Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 100, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Beyond Meat, a firm that specializes in producing plant-based meat substitutes, has been dealing with various problems, including falling sales (<a href=\"https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/faqs\" target=\"_blank\">Beyond Meat</a>, <a href=\"https://www.costar.com/article/1344619066/beyond-meat-seeks-to-sublease-california-hq-space-as-sales-shrivel\" target=\"_blank\">CoStar</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/02/04/fake-meat-impossible-beyond-burger-crash\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/beyond-meat-lawsuit-protein-content-class-action-rcna68818\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 2 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by Beyond Meat in its first quarter 2023 financials, expected in May 2023 (<a href=\"https://investors.beyondmeat.com/financial-information/quarterly-results\" target=\"_blank\">Beyond Meat - Quarterly Results</a>). For the third quarter of 2022, the company reported total net revenues of $82,500 (thousands), or $82.5 million (<a href=\"https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results\" target=\"_blank\">Beyond Meat - Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results</a>). The company is scheduled to release earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022 on 23 February 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/02/09/2605483/0/en/Beyond-Meat-to-Report-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2022-Financial-Results-on-February-23-2023.html\" target=\"_blank\">Global News Wire</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 3 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-03T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2762, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 100, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 41, "published_at": "2023-02-10T15:52:03.732Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-12T13:25:08.077Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-02-10T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-02-10T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:58.099Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2577 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 31 October 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin" target="_blank">CoinDesk</a>, set chart to "1W").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.650Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7251, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $12,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:34.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:34.060Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7252, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $12,000.00 and $16,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:38.103Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:38.103Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.668Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7253, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $16,000.00 but less than $20,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:42.151Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:42.152Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.676Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7254, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:59.394Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:59.395Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.684Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7255, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $24,000.00 but less than $28,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:50.010Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:50.011Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.692Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7256, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $28,000.00 and $32,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:46.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:46.272Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:29.577Z", "created_at": "2022-10-07T15:43:12.701Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7257, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $32,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 170, "predictions_count": 595, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2577, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:55.372Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:55.373Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 598, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-10-28T01:05:50.031Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "81%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 31 October 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\">CoinDesk</a>, set chart to \"1W\").</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive\" with a closing date of 31 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2577, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 595, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 170, "published_at": "2022-10-09T20:55:34.737Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-01T13:49:59.403Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-10T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-10T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-03-09T16:40:51.988Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1508 | <p>The South Carolina primary is scheduled for 29 February 2020 (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/south-carolina-primary" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Joe Biden" with a closing date of 29 February 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-01T07:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T14:58:39.844Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3435, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joe Biden", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 220, "predictions_count": 637, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1508, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:53.381Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:01.366Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-01T07:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T14:58:39.894Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3436, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 220, "predictions_count": 637, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1508, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:44.347Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:09.638Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-01T07:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T14:58:39.941Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3437, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tom Steyer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 220, "predictions_count": 637, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1508, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:37.837Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:12.471Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-01T07:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T14:58:39.982Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3438, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 220, "predictions_count": 637, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1508, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:31.338Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:14.176Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-01T07:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T14:58:40.032Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3439, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 220, "predictions_count": 637, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1508, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:25.152Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:14.568Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 642, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-02-13T13:08:49.437Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "46%", "description": "<p>The South Carolina primary is scheduled for 29 February 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/south-carolina-primary\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Joe Biden\" with a closing date of 29 February 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-02-29T07:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1508, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:15:41.900+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:14:06.250+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:35:07.665+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:17:23.078+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 637, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 220, "published_at": "2020-01-31T17:04:21.796Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-01T18:00:53.405Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-02-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-31T10:00:02.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-31T18:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1711 |
<p>The U.S. government imposed a "No Sail Order" on cruise ships in March 2020, which has been repeatedly extended (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships-Second-Extension_07_16_2020-p.pdf" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/cdc-bans-us-cruises-through-september-citing-expanding-coronavirus-outbreaks.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">C<span style="font-size: 10px;">onfused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10px;">FAQ </span></a><span style="font-size: 10px;">or </span></span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10px;">ask us for help</span></a><span style="font-size: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;">. To learn m</span>ore about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Note 17 August 2020</span>: "Carnival Cruise Line<b>s</b>" was made plural in error. It has been corrected.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 16 January 2021" with a closing date of 16 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-16T19:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T15:15:20.701Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4192, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 2 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 258, "predictions_count": 829, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1711, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-17T23:20:28.005Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-17T23:20:28.010Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-16T19:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T15:15:20.726Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4193, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2 October 2020 and 23 November 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 258, "predictions_count": 829, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1711, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-17T23:20:49.980Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-17T23:20:49.982Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-16T19:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T15:15:20.749Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4194, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 24 November 2020 and 15 January 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 258, "predictions_count": 829, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1711, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-17T23:21:38.542Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-17T23:21:38.543Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-16T19:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T15:15:20.770Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4195, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 16 January 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 258, "predictions_count": 829, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1711, "question_name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-17T23:21:17.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-17T23:21:17.668Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 884, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-24T18:53:16.957Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 176, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The U.S. government imposed a \"No Sail Order\" on cruise ships in March 2020, which has been repeatedly extended (<a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships-Second-Extension_07_16_2020-p.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/cdc-bans-us-cruises-through-september-citing-expanding-coronavirus-outbreaks.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">C<span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">onfused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">FAQ </span></a><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">or </span></span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">ask us for help</span></a><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">. To learn m</span>ore about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">Note 17 August 2020</span>: \"Carnival Cruise Line<b>s</b>\" was made plural in error. It has been corrected.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 16 January 2021\" with a closing date of 16 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-16T08:01:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1711, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:51.836+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:10.504+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T02:54:29.795+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T02:50:10.287+00:00"}, "name": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 829, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 258, "published_at": "2020-07-24T15:15:20.858Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-17T23:21:38.567Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-01-16T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-24T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-24T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (<a href="https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv" target="_blank">JHU CSSE GitHub</a>). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 600,000" with a closing date of 28 February 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.614Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4799, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 600,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:36.303Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:36.304Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.639Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4800, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:40.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:40.073Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.663Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4801, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:43.966Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:43.967Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.687Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4802, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:20.987Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:20.988Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4803, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:24.434Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:24.435Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.735Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4804, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:28.109Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:28.111Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-28T19:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-03T15:32:13.761Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4805, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,350,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 392, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1923, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:31.873Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:31.875Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 398, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-14T16:52:10.899Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "46%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (<a href=\"https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv\" target=\"_blank\">JHU CSSE GitHub</a>). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 600,000\" with a closing date of 28 February 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-02-27T08:01:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1923, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:19.789+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:01.181+00:00"}, "name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 392, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 112, "published_at": "2021-02-03T18:55:20.588Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-08T20:42:43.976Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-02-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-03T11:00:03.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-03T19:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2282 |
<p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/" target="_blank">270 to Win</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-24T22:57:28.557Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6090, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2282, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Illinois' 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-10T15:40:57.849Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-10T15:40:57.849Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-24T22:57:28.575Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6091, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2282, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Illinois' 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-10T15:41:17.229Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-10T15:41:17.230Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-24T22:57:28.593Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6092, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2282, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Illinois' 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-10T15:40:34.525Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-10T15:40:34.526Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 257, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-09-12T19:32:29.284Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 57, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "78%", "description": "\r\n <p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 to Win</a>, <a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2282, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:50.988+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:18.967+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for Illinois' 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 257, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 51, "published_at": "2022-02-25T15:49:19.993Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-10T15:41:17.283Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-25T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-25T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1471 | <p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href="https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE" target="_blank">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:42:40.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3270, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:12:46.139Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:36.528Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:13:35.491Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3265, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Barry", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:13:03.435Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:33.853Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:13:35.505Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3266, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fleabag", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:13:02.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:34.616Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:13:35.518Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3267, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Kominsky Method", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:13:00.542Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:35.881Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:13:35.531Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3268, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:12:57.387Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:36.110Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:13:35.546Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3269, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Schitt's Creek", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 79, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1471, "question_name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:12:52.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:36.313Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 79, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE\" target=\"_blank\">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel\" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-19T07:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1471, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:34.859+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:12.469+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:04:17.496+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:02:34.110+00:00"}, "name": "Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 79, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2019-12-26T20:24:42.788Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:13:03.447Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-01-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-26T12:30:59.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-26T20:30:59.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893 |
<p>AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/" target="_blank">Motley Fool</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 July 2021" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-06T19:49:07.195Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4723, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 April 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 261, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1893, "question_name": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:56:39.910Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:56:39.912Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-06T19:49:07.230Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4724, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 261, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1893, "question_name": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:57:33.595Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:57:33.599Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-06T19:49:07.261Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4725, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 261, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1893, "question_name": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:58:11.614Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:58:11.616Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 279, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-12T02:02:00.197Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 171, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "3%", "description": "\r\n <p>AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/\" target=\"_blank\">Motley Fool</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 July 2021\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:07.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1893, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:26.117+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:56.363+00:00"}, "name": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 261, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2021-01-06T20:28:08.090Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:58:11.684Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-06T12:30:07.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-06T20:30:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1542 | <p>The COVID-19 outbreak that began in late 2019 has caused more fatalities than the 2002-03 SARS outbreak (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/09/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/chinas-xi-jinping-has-not-been-in-wuhan-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" target="_blank">WHO</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/479810-how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-compare" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). As of 19 February 2020, WHO has reported 2,009 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 5,500" with a closing date of 15 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-16T06:59:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-21T16:20:57.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3596, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 2,500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 480, "predictions_count": 967, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1542, "question_name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:13:39.160Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:09.456Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-16T06:59:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-21T16:20:57.752Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3597, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2,500 and 3,500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 480, "predictions_count": 967, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1542, "question_name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:13:51.380Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:09.589Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-16T06:59:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-21T16:20:57.787Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3598, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3,500 but less than 4,500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 480, "predictions_count": 967, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1542, "question_name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:13:27.675Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:09.716Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-16T06:59:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-21T16:20:57.822Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3599, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4,500 and 5,500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 480, "predictions_count": 967, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1542, "question_name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:13:14.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:09.831Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-16T06:59:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-21T16:20:57.869Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3600, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5,500", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 480, "predictions_count": 967, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1542, "question_name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:14:02.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:09.959Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 986, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-02-22T18:01:20.490Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "<p>The COVID-19 outbreak that began in late 2019 has caused more fatalities than the 2002-03 SARS outbreak (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/09/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-intl-hnk/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/chinas-xi-jinping-has-not-been-in-wuhan-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/479810-how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-compare\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). As of 19 February 2020, WHO has reported 2,009 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 5,500\" with a closing date of 15 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-06-01T06:59:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1542, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:10.982+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:17:28.849+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T16:07:29.492+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:34:43.028+00:00"}, "name": "How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 967, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 480, "published_at": "2020-02-21T17:18:13.175Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-16T18:14:02.859Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-21T10:00:55.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-21T18:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2943 |
<p>The BBB surprised many with a strong showing in the March 2023 Senate elections and is polling highly with new House of Representatives elections expected in November 2023 following Prime Minister Mark Rutte's resignation in July 2023 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64967513" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-migration-rutte-government-0a52333c06947d689eb38a43a13ff7b1" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186714918/dutch-prime-minister-leave-politics" target="_blank">NPR</a>). Unlike many parliamentary systems, the Dutch have a relatively low minimum threshold for a party to win a seat (<a href="https://www.kiesraad.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamer/uitslagen/kiesdrempel-kiesdeler-en-voorkeurdrempel" target="_blank">Kiesraad.nl</a> [in Dutch]). The next Dutch House of Representatives elections are scheduled for 22 November 2023 (<a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dutch-elections-set-november-fall-140857198.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 18" with a closing date of 22 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.313Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8772, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 18", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:39.905Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:39.906Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.323Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8773, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18 and 21", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:41.254Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:41.255Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.330Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8774, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 22 and 25", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:42.642Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:42.642Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.338Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8775, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 26 and 29", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:45.285Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:45.286Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8776, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 30 and 33", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:43.947Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:43.948Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T20:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:20:34.352Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8777, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 33", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2943, "question_name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:46.566Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:46.567Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 181, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-08-27T13:53:25.290Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 87, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "34%", "description": "\r\n <p>The BBB surprised many with a strong showing in the March 2023 Senate elections and is polling highly with new House of Representatives elections expected in November 2023 following Prime Minister Mark Rutte's resignation in July 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64967513\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-migration-rutte-government-0a52333c06947d689eb38a43a13ff7b1\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186714918/dutch-prime-minister-leave-politics\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>). Unlike many parliamentary systems, the Dutch have a relatively low minimum threshold for a party to win a seat (<a href=\"https://www.kiesraad.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamer/uitslagen/kiesdrempel-kiesdeler-en-voorkeurdrempel\" target=\"_blank\">Kiesraad.nl</a>\u00a0[in Dutch]). The next Dutch House of Representatives elections are scheduled for 22 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dutch-elections-set-november-fall-140857198.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 18\" with a closing date of 22 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-22T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2943, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 178, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-07-14T15:48:24.446Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-23T19:17:46.576Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-22T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-14T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-14T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3128 |
<p>US officials have stated that they are considering imposing sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers associated with violence against Palestinians (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/18/biden-orders-top-aides-to-prepare-reprimands-for-violent-israeli-settlers-in-west-bank-00127940" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4317386-us-moving-toward-imposing-travel-ban-on-west-bank-settlers-associated-with-violence-against-palestinians/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/19/west-bank-israel-settler-violence-travel-ban" target="_blank">Axios</a>). For the purposes of this question, any sanctions that would limit an Israeli citizen's ability to visit the US or engage in commerce with the US would count. The mere announcement of a framework outlining who may be eligible to be sanctioned would not count, and the date the sanctions would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 12 December 2023" with a closing date of 5 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-05T18:28:57.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:23.216Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9573, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 12 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3128, "question_name": "When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:51.355Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:51.355Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-05T18:28:57.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:23.232Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9574, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3128, "question_name": "When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:47.610Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:47.610Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-05T18:28:57.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:23.239Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9575, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2 January 2024 and 22 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3128, "question_name": "When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:48.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:48.771Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-05T18:28:57.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:23.249Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9576, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 23 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3128, "question_name": "When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:50.186Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:50.187Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 159, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>US officials have stated that they are considering imposing sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers associated with violence against Palestinians (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/18/biden-orders-top-aides-to-prepare-reprimands-for-violent-israeli-settlers-in-west-bank-00127940\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/4317386-us-moving-toward-imposing-travel-ban-on-west-bank-settlers-associated-with-violence-against-palestinians/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/19/west-bank-israel-settler-violence-travel-ban\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>). For the purposes of this question, any sanctions that would limit an Israeli citizen's ability to visit the US or engage in commerce with the US would count. The mere announcement of a framework outlining who may be eligible to be sanctioned would not count, and the date the sanctions would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 12 December 2023\" with a closing date of 5 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-23T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3128, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 137, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 89, "published_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:23.309Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-08T18:42:51.363Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-20T14:00:23.309-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-20T22:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.718Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2811 |
<p>When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.217Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8118, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "-1.00% or lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:44.243Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:44.243Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.244Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8119, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:45.437Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:45.437Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.257Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8120, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:46.588Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:46.588Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.269Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8121, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:47.682Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:47.683Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.286Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8122, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:48.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:48.905Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8123, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:50.091Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:50.091Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T19:30:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:30:22.309Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8124, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 0.25%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 187, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2811, "question_name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:51.452Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:51.453Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 188, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-17T12:31:19.895Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "\r\n <p>When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%\" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-18T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2811, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 187, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 60, "published_at": "2023-03-29T13:54:24.477Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-20T14:43:51.459Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2356 |
<p>US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-rate-historic-high-4ba3435cc3730198e299690a9d968038" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "All items" in January 2023 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm" target="_blank">BLS</a>). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6332, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 3.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:17.895Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:17.896Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.030Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6333, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:13.331Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:13.332Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.038Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6334, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:21.891Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:21.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.045Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6335, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:05.418Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:05.418Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.053Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6336, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:09.260Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:09.261Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:03:17.060Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6337, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "9.5% or higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 112, "predictions_count": 631, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2356, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:26.126Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:26.127Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 658, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-09-20T05:00:47.662Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 104, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "60%", "description": "\r\n <p>US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-rate-historic-high-4ba3435cc3730198e299690a9d968038\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"All items\" in January 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2356, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:05.566+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:16:38.393+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 631, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 112, "published_at": "2022-04-15T14:53:27.110Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-12T15:12:26.135Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-15T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-15T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2874 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 20 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-20T21:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-05T14:48:18.804Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8477, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 431, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2874, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-20T22:11:01.114Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-20T22:11:01.117Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-20T21:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-05T14:48:18.813Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8478, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 431, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2874, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-20T22:10:54.966Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-20T22:10:54.968Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-20T21:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-05T14:48:18.820Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8479, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 431, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2874, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-20T22:10:50.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-20T22:10:50.977Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 439, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-05T17:06:39.955Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 20 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-09-20T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2874, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 431, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 57, "published_at": "2023-05-05T14:58:27.679Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-20T22:11:01.128Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-20T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-05-05T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-05-05T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2677 |
<div>
</div><div>Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3737434-trump-files-paperwork-for-2024-presidential-run/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (<a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1603444602085601280" target="_blank">Twitter - Nate Silver</a>). "Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. <b>The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included.</b> For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., <a href="https://www.wuwm.com/politics-government/2020-10-18/trump-rally-in-janesville-draws-thousands-of-attendees#stream/0" target="_blank">WUWM</a>, <a href="https://www.telegraphherald.com/news/public_announcements/article_f596286a-049b-5b1d-a27b-e1c0578f6806.html" target="_blank">Telegraph Herald</a>).<a href="https://www.telegraphherald.com/news/public_announcements/article_f596286a-049b-5b1d-a27b-e1c0578f6806.html)." target="_blank"></a>
</div><div><br></div><div><b>*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.</b></div><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 October 2023</span>: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:</p><p style="line-height:1.4;">For the purposes of this question, the four "early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (<a href="https://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/653/653-9.htm" target="_blank">General Court of New Hampshire</a>).</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 13 and 18" with a closing date of 1 January 2024. There were at least 13 qualifying events in the fourth quarter of 2023: 10/1/2023 Ottumwa, IA; 10/7/2023 Cedar Rapids, IA; 10/7/2023 Waterloo, IA; 10/16/2023 Clive, IA; 10/16/2023 Adel, IA; 10/23/2023 Derry, NH; 10/28/2023 Las Vegas, NV (RJC); 10/29/2023 Sioux City, IA; 11/18/2023 Fort Dodge, IA; 12/13/2023 Coralville, IA; 12/16/2023 Durham, NH; 12/17/2023 Reno, NV; 12/19/2023 Waterloo, IA.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.354Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7643, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "None", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 313, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2677, "question_name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:04.520Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:04.521Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.363Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7644, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 and 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 313, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2677, "question_name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:06.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:06.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.372Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7645, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7 and 12", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 313, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2677, "question_name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:14.078Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:14.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.381Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7646, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13 and 18", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 313, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2677, "question_name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:09.468Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:09.469Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.389Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7647, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "19 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 313, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2677, "question_name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:11.786Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:11.786Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 336, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <div>\r\n</div><div>Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3737434-trump-files-paperwork-for-2024-presidential-run/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (<a href=\"https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1603444602085601280\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter - Nate Silver</a>). \"Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president\" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. <b>The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included.</b> For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.wuwm.com/politics-government/2020-10-18/trump-rally-in-janesville-draws-thousands-of-attendees#stream/0\" target=\"_blank\">WUWM</a>, <a href=\"https://www.telegraphherald.com/news/public_announcements/article_f596286a-049b-5b1d-a27b-e1c0578f6806.html\" target=\"_blank\">Telegraph Herald</a>).<a href=\"https://www.telegraphherald.com/news/public_announcements/article_f596286a-049b-5b1d-a27b-e1c0578f6806.html).\" target=\"_blank\"></a>\r\n</div><div><br></div><div><b>*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.</b></div><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 5 October 2023</span>: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:</p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\">For the purposes of this question, the four \"early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president\" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (<a href=\"https://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/653/653-9.htm\" target=\"_blank\">General Court of New Hampshire</a>).</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 13 and 18\" with a closing date of 1 January 2024. There were at least 13 qualifying events in the fourth quarter of 2023: 10/1/2023 Ottumwa, IA; 10/7/2023 Cedar Rapids, IA; 10/7/2023 Waterloo, IA; 10/16/2023 Clive, IA; 10/16/2023 Adel, IA; 10/23/2023 Derry, NH; 10/28/2023 Las Vegas, NV (RJC); 10/29/2023 Sioux City, IA; 11/18/2023 Fort Dodge, IA; 12/13/2023 Coralville, IA; 12/16/2023 Durham, NH; 12/17/2023 Reno, NV; 12/19/2023 Waterloo, IA.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2677, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 313, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 51, "published_at": "2022-12-16T17:56:47.455Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-04T18:14:14.087Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-16T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-16T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1752 |
<p>The National Basketball Association (NBA) resumed play on 30 July 2020 and is scheduled to complete the 2020 NBA Finals no later than 13 October 2020 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/playoffs" target="_blank">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.nba.com/nba-returns-2020-faq" target="_blank">NBA (Return FAQ)</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Los Angeles Lakers" with a closing date of 11 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.362Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4316, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Boston Celtics", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T13:56:32.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:01.319Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.384Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4317, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Denver Nuggets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:01:17.208Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:01.458Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4318, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Houston Rockets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:02:58.343Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:01.595Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.425Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4319, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Indiana Pacers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T13:58:02.044Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:01.781Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.451Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4320, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T13:55:00.295Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:01.948Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.486Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4321, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:02:21.420Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.109Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.508Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4322, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T13:59:33.228Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.248Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.528Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4323, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Toronto Raptors", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:02:38.367Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.408Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.548Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4324, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T13:53:34.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.609Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:51:13.567Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4325, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "There will be no 2020 NBA Finals winner", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 110, "predictions_count": 806, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1752, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:01:57.373Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.791Z"}], "answers_count": 10, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 822, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-13T03:06:03.367Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 29, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "44%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The National Basketball Association (NBA) resumed play on 30 July 2020 and is scheduled to complete the 2020 NBA Finals no later than 13 October 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.nba.com/playoffs\" target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nba.com/nba-returns-2020-faq\" target=\"_blank\">NBA (Return FAQ)</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Los Angeles Lakers\" with a closing date of 11 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-10-15T07:01:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1752, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:43.423+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:28.745+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:36:48.964+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:03:47.470+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 806, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 110, "published_at": "2020-08-20T20:58:09.835Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T14:02:58.437Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-11T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-20T14:00:25.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:25.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.173Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3024 | <p>Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has been lower than the historic range in 2022 and 2023 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 March 2024 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 March 2024 (<a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/" target="_blank">Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph</a>, click "Antarctic" on the left side above the graph, <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/" target="_blank">About Charctic Data</a>). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2023 was 1.788 million sq. km on 21 February.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.560Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "16%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9143, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1.7 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.16, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 197, "probability": 0.16, "probability_formatted": "16%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T07:37:41.006Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.570Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "45%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9144, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.7 million sq. km and 2.0 million sq. km, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.45, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 197, "probability": 0.45, "probability_formatted": "45%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T07:37:40.999Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.579Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "27%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9145, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.0 million sq. km but less than 2.3 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.27, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 198, "probability": 0.27, "probability_formatted": "27%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T07:38:45.455Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.587Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9146, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.3 million sq. km and 2.6 million sq. km, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.09, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 191, "probability": 0.09, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T21:19:26.177Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.595Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9147, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.6 million sq. km but less than 2.9 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 196, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T20:16:53.014Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.604Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9148, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.9 million sq. km and 3.2 million sq. km, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 196, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T09:05:26.674Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-21T21:17:18.613Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9149, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3.2 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3024, "question_name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T07:38:45.447Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 203, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has been lower than the historic range in 2022 and 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 March 2024 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) \"Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 March 2024 (<a href=\"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/\" target=\"_blank\">Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph</a>, click \"Antarctic\" on the left side above the graph, <a href=\"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/\" target=\"_blank\">About Charctic Data</a>). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2023 was 1.788 million sq. km on 21 February.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-12T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3024, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 200, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2023-09-22T14:26:23.890Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T03:06:18.210Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2746 | <p>Use the rationale box to suggest questions and topics that you would like to forecast on.<br></p><p>This is an open-ended question with no scoring.</p><p>Feel free to upvote any suggestions you like.</p><p>All suggestions welcome! </p><p>(This thread is the successor to the previous question ideas threads, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1291" target="_blank">#1291</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1687-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen" target="_blank">#1687</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen" target="_blank">#1933</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen/" target="_blank">#2237</a>, and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2437-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen" target="_blank">#2437</a>)</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": {}, "answers_count": 0, "binary?": false, "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 239, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Use the rationale box to suggest questions and topics that you would like to forecast on.<br></p><p>This is an open-ended question with no scoring.</p><p>Feel free to upvote any suggestions you like.</p><p>All suggestions welcome!\u00a0</p><p>(This thread is the successor to the previous question ideas threads, <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1291\" target=\"_blank\">#1291</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1687-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen\" target=\"_blank\">#1687</a>, <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen\" target=\"_blank\">#1933</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen/\" target=\"_blank\">#2237</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2437-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen\" target=\"_blank\">#2437</a>)</p>", "ends_at": "2023-08-02T16:00:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2746, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What forecasting questions should we ask? What questions would you like to forecast on GJOpen?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 0, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 0, "published_at": "2023-02-02T21:08:27.276Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-02-02T13:08:27.276-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-02-02T15:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::DiscussionQuestion", "updated_at": "2023-10-11T18:06:59.523Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1509 |
<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 9-10 June 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 10 June 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-10T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T15:03:09.099Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3440, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 436, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1509, "question_name": "At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-11T14:42:57.865Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:14.941Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-10T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T15:03:09.149Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3441, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 436, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1509, "question_name": "At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-11T14:42:46.892Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:15.157Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-10T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-31T15:03:09.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3442, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 436, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1509, "question_name": "At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-11T14:42:37.207Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:15.554Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 442, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-01-31T18:09:43.759Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 130, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 9-10 June 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 10 June 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-10T06:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1509, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:15:15.380+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:14:20.748+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:03:38.322+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:57:32.324+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 436, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 176, "published_at": "2020-01-31T17:04:01.052Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-11T14:42:57.925Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-09T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-31T10:00:35.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-31T18:00:35.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2354 |
<p>While Opening Day for baseball was postponed due to contract issues between team owners and the player's union, MLB has a full 162-game season scheduled for 2022 (<a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-ends-as-mlbpa-owners-reach-cba-agreement-five-takeaways-with-baseball-set-to-return/live/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-revised-2022-regular-season-schedule" target="_blank">MLB</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Baseball Reference (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, see "Attendance" column).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 5 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.205Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6321, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 40 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:11.270Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:11.277Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.215Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6322, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 40 million and 45 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:13.500Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:13.501Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.222Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6323, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 45 million but fewer than 50 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:15.461Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:15.462Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6324, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:21.303Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:21.303Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.237Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6325, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:19.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:19.337Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6326, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:05.470Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:05.471Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.254Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6327, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:09.235Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:09.236Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.262Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6328, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:07.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:07.335Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-06T04:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-13T20:16:13.270Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6329, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 75 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 238, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2354, "question_name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:17.432Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:17.433Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 246, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-05-08T19:07:44.107Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 150, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "\r\n <p>While Opening Day for baseball was postponed due to contract issues between team owners and the player's union, MLB has a full 162-game season scheduled for 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-ends-as-mlbpa-owners-reach-cba-agreement-five-takeaways-with-baseball-set-to-return/live/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS Sports</a>, <a href=\"https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-revised-2022-regular-season-schedule\" target=\"_blank\">MLB</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Baseball Reference (<a href=\"https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">Baseball Reference</a>, see \"Attendance\" column).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 5 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-05T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2354, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:08.910+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:23:52.613+00:00"}, "name": "What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 238, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2022-04-15T14:53:12.148Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-06T14:36:21.312Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-15T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-15T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 (<a href="https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh" target="_blank">Healthdata.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 March 2021</span>: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options).<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 28 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:10.949Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4877, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 15,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:48:42.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:48:42.929Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:10.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4878, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:03.702Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:03.703Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.011Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4879, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:25.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:25.978Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.036Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4880, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:51.218Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:49:51.220Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.060Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4881, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:50:07.167Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:50:07.172Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.086Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4882, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:48:24.066Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:48:24.068Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4883, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:46:52.548Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:46:52.550Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4884, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:15.265Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:15.266Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.163Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4885, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:39.037Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:39.040Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-28T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-02T21:49:11.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4886, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "95,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1952, "question_name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:59.230Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-05T17:47:59.233Z"}], "answers_count": 10, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 168, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 (<a href=\"https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh\" target=\"_blank\">Healthdata.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 15 March 2021</span>: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 28 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-03-27T07:01:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1952, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:03.404+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:15.828+00:00"}, "name": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 159, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 50, "published_at": "2021-03-03T18:50:01.985Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-05T17:50:07.239Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-03-03T11:00:47.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-03-03T19:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1594 |
<p>As of 11 April 2020, three states have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 1 May 2020 as provided on 4 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data" target="_blank">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 13" with a closing date of 1 May 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-02T06:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-13T00:16:37.882Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3815, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 255, "predictions_count": 888, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1594, "question_name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:35:12.976Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:28.668Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-02T06:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-13T00:16:37.916Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3816, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5 and 7, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 255, "predictions_count": 888, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1594, "question_name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:34:47.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:28.853Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-02T06:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-13T00:16:37.945Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3817, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 7 but less than 11", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 255, "predictions_count": 888, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1594, "question_name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:34:27.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:29.067Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-02T06:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-13T00:16:37.974Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3818, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 11 and 13, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 255, "predictions_count": 888, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1594, "question_name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:34:05.019Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:29.235Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-02T06:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-13T00:16:38.003Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3819, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 13", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 255, "predictions_count": 888, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1594, "question_name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:33:41.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:29.389Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 929, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-30T19:52:18.816Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\n <p>As of 11 April 2020, three states have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 1 May 2020 as provided on 4 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data\" target=\"_blank\">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 13\" with a closing date of 1 May 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-05-01T06:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1594, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:47.392+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:45.647+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:45:45.254+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:29:33.011+00:00"}, "name": "How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 888, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 255, "published_at": "2020-04-13T13:59:14.945Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-05T13:35:12.991Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-13T07:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-13T14:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2189 |
<p>Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/can-hong-kongs-economy-survive-chinas-political-crackdown" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q3-gdp-growth-hits-1-year-low-raising-heat-policymakers-2021-10-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.442Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5773, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 20,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:15.731Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:15.731Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.460Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5774, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:06.745Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:06.746Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.476Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5775, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 23,000 but less than 26,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:18.572Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:18.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.492Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5776, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:09.896Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:09.897Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.509Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5777, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 29,000 but less than 32,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:03.769Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:03.770Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T08:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:27:25.525Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5778, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "32,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2189, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:12.828Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:12.829Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 570, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-03-04T16:17:21.725Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 118, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "49%", "description": "\r\n <p>Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/can-hong-kongs-economy-survive-chinas-political-crackdown\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q3-gdp-growth-hits-1-year-low-raising-heat-policymakers-2021-10-17/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-30T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2189, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 569, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2021-11-12T15:00:29.985Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:37:18.579Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2373 |
<p>Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/us-auto-sales-forecast-q1-2022-looks-bleak-due-to-chips-inflation.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-04-01/u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-q1-as-chip-shortage-slows-factories" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALNSA" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:57.981Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6410, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 13.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:33.650Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:33.651Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:57.991Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6411, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:29.983Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:29.983Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:57.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6412, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:16.291Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:16.292Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:58.006Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6413, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:22.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:22.992Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:58.014Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6414, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:19.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:19.628Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:58.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6415, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:26.333Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:26.334Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T14:26:58.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6416, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 16.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2373, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:13.016Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:13.016Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 461, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/us-auto-sales-forecast-q1-2022-looks-bleak-due-to-chips-inflation.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-04-01/u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-q1-as-chip-shortage-slows-factories\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALNSA\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2373, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:18:48.563+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:16:56.060+00:00"}, "name": "How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 455, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 100, "published_at": "2022-04-29T15:40:35.746Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-27T15:02:33.660Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2628 |
<p>Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (<a href="https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/older-adults-lost-more-money-impersonation-investment-scams-2021-than-2020-per-report/27U62ESHMVGSLIB74JSWMPPQWM/" target="_blank">WSB-TV</a>). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2021-2022-report-federal-trade-commission" target="_blank">FTC - Press Release</a>). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Business Imposters totaled $151 million in 2021 (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/P144400OlderConsumersReportFY22.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022</a>, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2017-2018-report-congress-federal-trade-commission/protecting_older_consumers_-_ftc_report_10-18-18.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2018-2019-report-federal-trade-commission/p144401_protecting_older_consumers_2019_1.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2019-2020-report-federal-trade-commission/p144400_protecting_older_adults_report_2020.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2020-2021-report-federal-trade-commission/protecting-older-consumers-report-508.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021</a>).</p><p></p><div>
<i><a href="https://www.safe-seniors.org/" target="_blank">Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE)</a> is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. <a href="https://twitter.com/SafeSeniorsOrg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to follow them on Twitter.</i><p></p>
<p></p>
<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p>
<p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
<p></p>
<hr>
<p>The question closed "More than $252 million but less than $353 million" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.</p>
<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
</div>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-18T00:01:12.571Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7460, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $151 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2628, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:22.842Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:22.843Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-18T00:01:12.580Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7461, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $151 million and $252 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2628, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:25.803Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:25.804Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-18T00:01:12.588Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7462, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $252 million but less than $353 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2628, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:20.587Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:20.588Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-18T00:01:12.595Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7463, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$353 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2628, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:24.398Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:24.399Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 98, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-14T16:53:30.901Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 28, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "67%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (<a href=\"https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/older-adults-lost-more-money-impersonation-investment-scams-2021-than-2020-per-report/27U62ESHMVGSLIB74JSWMPPQWM/\" target=\"_blank\">WSB-TV</a>). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2021-2022-report-federal-trade-commission\" target=\"_blank\">FTC - Press Release</a>). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Business Imposters totaled $151 million in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/P144400OlderConsumersReportFY22.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022</a>, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2017-2018-report-congress-federal-trade-commission/protecting_older_consumers_-_ftc_report_10-18-18.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2018-2019-report-federal-trade-commission/p144401_protecting_older_consumers_2019_1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2019-2020-report-federal-trade-commission/p144400_protecting_older_adults_report_2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2020-2021-report-federal-trade-commission/protecting-older-consumers-report-508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021</a>).</p><p></p><div>\r\n<i><a href=\"https://www.safe-seniors.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE)</a> is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. <a href=\"https://twitter.com/SafeSeniorsOrg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here</a> to follow them on Twitter.</i><p></p>\r\n<p></p>\r\n<p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n<p></p>\r\n<hr>\r\n<p>The question closed \"More than $252 million but less than $353 million\" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.</p>\r\n<p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n</div>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-02-11T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2628, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 98, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2022-11-18T15:44:20.996Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:28:25.819Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-18T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-18T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2928 |
<p>Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). The question will be suspended on 20 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5537002/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in some theaters on 6 October 2023, with the "wide" release scheduled for 20 October 2023 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/05/entertainment/killers-flower-moon-release-date/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 23 October 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.173Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8688, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $20 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:40.388Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:40.389Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.182Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8689, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:37.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:37.476Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.189Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8690, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $40 million but less than $60 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:39.003Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:39.004Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.196Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8691, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $60 million and $80 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:41.559Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:41.560Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.203Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8692, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $80 million but less than $100 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:42.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:42.682Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-23T14:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-06T21:51:11.210Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8693, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$100 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2928, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:43.724Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:43.725Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 144, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-09-24T18:52:52.357Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 27, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "75%", "description": "\r\n <p>Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (<a href=\"https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002/\" target=\"_blank\">IMDb</a>). The question will be suspended on 20 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5537002/\" target=\"_blank\">Box Office Mojo</a>, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in some theaters on 6 October 2023, with the \"wide\" release scheduled for 20 October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/05/entertainment/killers-flower-moon-release-date/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 23 October 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-10-21T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2928, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 140, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 29, "published_at": "2023-07-07T14:03:36.556Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-24T13:34:43.733Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-10-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-07T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-07T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1640 |
<p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/" target="_blank">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-29T14:16:48.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3969, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1140, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1640, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:24:16.416Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:44.104Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-29T14:16:48.421Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3970, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1640, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:28:53.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:44.176Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-29T14:16:48.447Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3971, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1140, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1640, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:34:12.267Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:44.244Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1167, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-05-29T17:21:10.466Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 158, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href=\"https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1640, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:17.335+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:47.840+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T14:16:21.083+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T14:04:49.082+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1140, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 340, "published_at": "2020-05-29T16:54:56.817Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:34:12.474Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-05-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-05-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3034 | <p>While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/erdogan-says-turkey-will-keep-promise-swedens-nato-bid-if-us-approves-f-16s" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-delay-sweden-nato-bid-f0529443019c3f8161947d30acc59b68" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession" target="_blank">NATO Parliamentary Assembly</a>). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:59:36.920Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9194, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0291, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 361, "probability": 0.0291, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3034, "question_name": "When will Sweden become a member of NATO?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T22:02:15.241Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:59:36.929Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "36%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9195, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.3634, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 362, "probability": 0.3634, "probability_formatted": "36%", "question_id": 3034, "question_name": "When will Sweden become a member of NATO?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:46:25.344Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:59:36.936Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "33%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9196, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.3297, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 361, "probability": 0.3297, "probability_formatted": "33%", "question_id": 3034, "question_name": "When will Sweden become a member of NATO?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T22:02:15.230Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:59:36.943Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "28%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9197, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 July 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2777, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 362, "probability": 0.2777, "probability_formatted": "28%", "question_id": 3034, "question_name": "When will Sweden become a member of NATO?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:46:25.348Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 371, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (<a href=\"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/erdogan-says-turkey-will-keep-promise-swedens-nato-bid-if-us-approves-f-16s\" target=\"_blank\">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-delay-sweden-nato-bid-f0529443019c3f8161947d30acc59b68\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession\" target=\"_blank\">NATO Parliamentary Assembly</a>). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2024-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3034, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Sweden become a member of NATO?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 362, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 86, "published_at": "2023-09-29T15:50:42.394Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:46:27.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2420 |
<p>Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (<a href="https://www.naturalgasintel.com/driven-by-surging-natural-gas-and-oil-costs-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high/" target="_blank">Natural Gas Intelligence</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61446317" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/natural-gas-prices-have-already-doubled-this-year-a-hot-summer-could-push-them-even-higher.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive" with a closing date of 23 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.354Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6618, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 4.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:34.442Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:34.443Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.363Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6619, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:30.392Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:30.394Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.370Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6620, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.50 but less than 7.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:44.980Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:44.980Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.377Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6621, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:16.183Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:16.184Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.385Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6622, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.50 but less than 10.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:41.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:41.495Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6623, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:19.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:19.629Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.399Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6624, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 11.50 but less than 13.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:37.954Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:37.955Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6625, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:26.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:26.638Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-23T19:30:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-17T14:46:56.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6626, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 14.50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 596, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2420, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:23.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:23.071Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 602, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (<a href=\"https://www.naturalgasintel.com/driven-by-surging-natural-gas-and-oil-costs-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high/\" target=\"_blank\">Natural Gas Intelligence</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61446317\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/natural-gas-prices-have-already-doubled-this-year-a-hot-summer-could-push-them-even-higher.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive\" with a closing date of 23 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-23T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2420, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:36.012+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:23:04.251+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 596, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 64, "published_at": "2022-06-17T16:48:45.276Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-29T21:02:44.988Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-23T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-17T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-17T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1772 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data from CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%" with a closing date of 22 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-22T21:30:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T22:38:33.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4393, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1.200%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1772, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:19:57.230Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:06.403Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-22T21:30:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T22:38:33.987Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4394, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.200% and 1.400%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1772, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:20:23.443Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:31.453Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-22T21:30:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T22:38:34.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4395, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1772, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:21:04.572Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:31.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-22T21:30:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T22:38:34.033Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4396, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.600% and 1.800%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1772, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:21:41.742Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:06.681Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-22T21:30:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T22:38:34.056Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4397, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.800%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1772, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:22:22.380Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:06.805Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 375, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-05T01:14:39.062Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "28%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using data from CNBC (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%\" with a closing date of 22 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-09-22T07:01:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1772, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:07.047+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:27.177+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T16:22:33.039+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T16:13:31.603+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 340, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2020-08-28T22:43:26.820Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-22T22:22:22.469Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-09-22T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-28T15:45:24.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-28T22:45:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2497 |
<p>The incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is set to face Democratic former US Representative Beto O'Rourke in the 2022 gubernatorial election (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3561175-orourke-abbott-post-massive-fundraising-hauls/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/05/beto-orourke-greg-abbott-roe-wade-uvalde/" target="_blank">Texas Tribune</a>, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/texas/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-28T21:35:21.136Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6967, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "50.0% or less and will not win the election", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2497, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:08.935Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:08.936Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-28T21:35:21.147Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6968, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "50.0% or less but will win the election", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2497, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:06.051Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:06.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-28T21:35:21.156Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6969, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2497, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:04.741Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:04.742Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-28T21:35:21.164Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6970, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "55.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2497, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:07.578Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:07.579Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 184, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is set to face Democratic former US Representative Beto O'Rourke in the 2022 gubernatorial election (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3561175-orourke-abbott-post-massive-fundraising-hauls/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/05/beto-orourke-greg-abbott-roe-wade-uvalde/\" target=\"_blank\">Texas Tribune</a>, <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/texas/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%\" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2497, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:22:36.403+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:22:23.382+00:00"}, "name": "What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 177, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 52, "published_at": "2022-07-29T14:25:28.771Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-30T16:24:08.944Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-07-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-07-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2915 |
<p>As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (<a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/" target="_blank">Manhattan District Attorney</a>, <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.648653/gov.uscourts.flsd.648653.3.0.pdf" target="_blank">Southern District of Florida</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/ga-prosecutor-indicates-charges-trump-probe-come-august-rcna85256" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/" target="_blank">Politico</a>). For the purposes of this question, "US jurisdiction" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (<a href="https://news.ballotpedia.org/2023/04/03/new-hampshire-state-senate-passes-amendment-to-keep-first-in-the-nation-presidential-primary/" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close "0," and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 July 2023</span>: The federal government, including the District of Columbia and all federal district courts, is considered a single jurisdiction.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 November 2023</span>: NH Secretary of State announced today that the NH primary will take place on 23 January 2024.</p>
| None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-06-16T14:20:17.682Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8649, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 375, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2915, "question_name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T18:57:27.632Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-06-16T14:20:17.690Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8650, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2915, "question_name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:53:47.390Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-06-16T14:20:17.697Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8651, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 2915, "question_name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:46:49.956Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-06-16T14:20:17.705Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "79%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8652, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.79, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.79, "probability_formatted": "79%", "question_id": 2915, "question_name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:46:49.950Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-06-16T14:20:17.712Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8653, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.14, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.14, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 2915, "question_name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:53:47.384Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 444, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (<a href=\"https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/\" target=\"_blank\">Manhattan District Attorney</a>, <a href=\"https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.648653/gov.uscourts.flsd.648653.3.0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Southern District of Florida</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/ga-prosecutor-indicates-charges-trump-probe-come-august-rcna85256\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). For the purposes of this question, \"US jurisdiction\" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (<a href=\"https://news.ballotpedia.org/2023/04/03/new-hampshire-state-senate-passes-amendment-to-keep-first-in-the-nation-presidential-primary/\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close \"0,\" and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 18 July 2023</span>: The federal government, including the District of Columbia and all federal district courts, is considered a single jurisdiction.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 15 November 2023</span>: NH Secretary of State announced today that the NH primary will take place on 23 January 2024.</p>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2024-01-23T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2915, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 385, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2023-06-16T16:24:49.409Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-16T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-16T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:53:47.490Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1515 |
<p>On 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) widened its highest travel warning, “Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel,” to include all of China (<a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-china" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-latest-updates/2020/01/27/3634db9a-40a7-11ea-aa6a-083d01b3ed18_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 June 2020" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T13:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-06T22:44:55.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3459, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 March 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 1120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1515, "question_name": "When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T13:49:57.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:23.398Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T13:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-06T22:44:55.281Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3460, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 March 2020 and 15 April 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 1120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1515, "question_name": "When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T13:50:07.314Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:23.643Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T13:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-06T22:44:55.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3461, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 April 2020 and 31 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 1120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1515, "question_name": "When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T13:50:19.671Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:24.159Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T13:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-06T22:44:55.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3462, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 June 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 1120, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1515, "question_name": "When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T13:50:29.784Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:24.740Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1130, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-02-16T21:32:57.629Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 105, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "8%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) widened its highest travel warning, \u201cWarning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel,\u201d to include all of China (<a href=\"https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-china\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-latest-updates/2020/01/27/3634db9a-40a7-11ea-aa6a-083d01b3ed18_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 June 2020\" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-01T06:59:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1515, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:17:28.714+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:14:59.601+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:49:08.072+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:27:02.481+00:00"}, "name": "When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1120, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 459, "published_at": "2020-02-07T18:03:56.538Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-01T13:50:29.798Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-07T10:03:56.538-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-07T18:00:16.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2085 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $75.00 but less than $90.00" with a closing date of 31 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.379Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5416, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $30.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:40:57.288Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:40:57.289Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.413Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5417, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:42:44.920Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:42:44.921Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.445Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5418, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $45.00 but less than $60.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:47:51.899Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:47:51.900Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.483Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5419, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:44:19.159Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:44:19.160Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.522Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5420, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $75.00 but less than $90.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:39:21.267Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:39:21.269Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.557Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5421, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $90.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 1190, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2085, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:46:03.606Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:46:03.607Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1213, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-30T01:15:56.808Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $75.00 but less than $90.00\" with a closing date of 31 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-31T08:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2085, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:21.831+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:28.518+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1190, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 174, "published_at": "2021-07-27T13:22:42.710Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:47:51.946Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-29T19:00:38.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-30T02:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1533 | <p>The Arizona primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/arizona-primary" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Joe Biden" with a closing date of 17 March 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:03.998Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3546, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joe Biden", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:22.485Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:59.388Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.033Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3547, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Michael Bloomberg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:26.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:59.639Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.107Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3548, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Pete Buttigieg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:30.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:59.860Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.157Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3549, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Amy Klobuchar", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:35.102Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:00.282Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.209Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3550, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:39.318Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:00.528Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3551, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:18.437Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:00.747Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-18T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T16:26:04.289Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3552, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 162, "predictions_count": 438, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1533, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:43.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:00.925Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 438, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-05T14:25:22.921Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "54%", "description": "<p>The Arizona primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/arizona-primary\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Joe Biden\" with a closing date of 17 March 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-03-17T06:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1533, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:01.739+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:16:37.321+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:11:29.930+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:02:34.108+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 438, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 162, "published_at": "2020-02-21T17:19:55.508Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-19T13:14:43.077Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-21T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-21T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744 |
<p>Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles (<a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/" target="_blank">Car and Driver</a>, <a href="https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)" target="_blank">Electrek</a>. Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet (<a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/" target="_blank">Road/Show</a>, <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/" target="_blank">Digital Trends</a>). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>. For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (<a href="http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf" target="_blank">OICA</a>). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 20 August 2020</span>: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery.</p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 2 October 2020</span>: For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
</p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 April 2021</span>: If a division or wholly-owned subsidiary of a major automaker listed among the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list debuts a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery, that would count as a debut by that listed manufacturer.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:51:01.434Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4289, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1744, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:33:43.433Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:33:43.433Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:51:01.460Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4290, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1 or 2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1744, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:35:05.551Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:35:05.551Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:51:01.486Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4291, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1744, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:32:47.200Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:32:47.201Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:51:01.511Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4292, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1744, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:35:56.046Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:35:56.047Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:51:01.551Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4293, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1744, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:36:43.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:36:43.504Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 412, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles (<a href=\"https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/\" target=\"_blank\">Car and Driver</a>, <a href=\"https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)\" target=\"_blank\">Electrek</a>. Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet (<a href=\"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/\" target=\"_blank\">Road/Show</a>, <a href=\"https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/\" target=\"_blank\">Digital Trends</a>). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>. For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (<a href=\"http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">OICA</a>). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 20 August 2020</span>: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered \"powered\" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery.</p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 2 October 2020</span>: For purposes of this question, a \"passenger vehicle\" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).\r\n</p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 12 April 2021</span>: If a division or wholly-owned subsidiary of a major automaker listed among the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list debuts a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery, that would count as a debut by that listed manufacturer.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"0\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1744, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:27.855+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:12.373+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:29:22.523+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:26:14.567+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 404, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 117, "published_at": "2020-08-14T16:55:44.640Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:36:43.600Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-14T10:00:28.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-14T17:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-01-10T00:07:14.474Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852 |
<p>As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify" target="_blank">Economist</a>). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf" target="_blank">Tesla Q1 2020</a>, <a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf" target="_blank">Tesla Q2 2020</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "350,000 or more" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:42:48.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4614, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 150,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 248, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1852, "question_name": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:06.989Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:06.991Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:42:48.816Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4615, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 248, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1852, "question_name": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-26T20:16:06.948Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-26T20:16:06.950Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:42:48.840Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4616, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 248, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1852, "question_name": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:52.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:52.398Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:42:48.864Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4617, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "350,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 248, "predictions_count": 738, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1852, "question_name": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:37.206Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-26T20:15:37.209Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 763, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-09T22:17:56.159Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 173, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "20%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (<a href=\"https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Q1 2020</a>, <a href=\"https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Q2 2020</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"350,000 or more\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1852, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:06.018+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:28.941+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T01:57:52.786+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T01:56:28.696+00:00"}, "name": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 738, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 248, "published_at": "2020-11-27T16:37:15.877Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-26T20:16:07.046Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-27T10:00:16.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-27T18:00:16.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.177Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2625 |
<p>The Stablecoin Transparency Act was introduced in the US Senate in March 2022 and has gained new interest in the wake of cryptocurrency volatility (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3970/text" target="_blank">S.3970 - Stablecoin Transparency Act</a>, <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/10/tethers-usdt-stablecoin-slips-from-1-peg/" target="_blank">CoinDesk</a>, <a href="https://forkast.news/shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-says-ftx-still-has-value-its-story-still-being-written/" target="_blank">Forkast</a>). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 15 April 2023" with a closing date of 15 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-15T14:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-11T17:43:39.326Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7452, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 3 January 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2625, "question_name": "When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:47.036Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:47.037Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-15T14:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-11T17:43:39.334Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7453, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3 January 2023 and 14 April 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2625, "question_name": "When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:57.079Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:57.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-15T14:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-11T17:43:39.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7454, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 15 April 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2625, "question_name": "When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:55.195Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:55.195Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 112, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-11-11T18:29:50.003Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 155, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Stablecoin Transparency Act was introduced in the US Senate in March 2022 and has gained new interest in the wake of cryptocurrency volatility (<a href=\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3970/text\" target=\"_blank\">S.3970 - Stablecoin Transparency Act</a>, <a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/10/tethers-usdt-stablecoin-slips-from-1-peg/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinDesk</a>, <a href=\"https://forkast.news/shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-says-ftx-still-has-value-its-story-still-being-written/\" target=\"_blank\">Forkast</a>). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 15 April 2023\" with a closing date of 15 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-15T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2625, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 112, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 36, "published_at": "2022-11-11T17:43:39.396Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-15T20:42:57.086Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-11T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-11T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2987 |
<p>The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected on 2 January 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU" target="_blank">FRED</a>). On 10 August 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.1016.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.644Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8982, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 1.000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:02.764Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:02.765Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.651Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8983, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:05.601Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:05.602Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.658Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8984, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:57.052Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:57.053Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.665Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8985, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:59.936Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:59.937Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.672Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8986, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:08.294Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:08.295Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.680Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8987, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:54.339Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:30:54.340Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T22:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:13:17.687Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8988, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.200", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2987, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:10.981Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:10.981Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 487, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-20T17:14:56.633Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 39, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected on 2 January 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). On 10 August 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.1016.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive\" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-29T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2987, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 487, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 62, "published_at": "2023-08-18T15:04:05.021Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-02T22:31:10.988Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T22:33:31.988Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1468 | <p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href="https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE" target="_blank">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:06:48.649Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3250, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Mahershala Ali (True Detective)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:11.517Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:29.236Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:06:48.672Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3251, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:10.801Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:29.774Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:06:48.692Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3252, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jared Harris (Chernobyl)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:09.929Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:30.021Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:06:48.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3253, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:09.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:30.177Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:06:48.733Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3254, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:08.619Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:30.489Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-19T23:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-23T22:43:49.550Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3273, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1468, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:07.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:37.047Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 56, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-26th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE\" target=\"_blank\">SAG-AFTRA</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)\" with a closing date of 19 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-19T07:59:18.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1468, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:16.233+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:02.234+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:20:55.660+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:18:37.331+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 56, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 25, "published_at": "2019-12-26T20:20:50.169Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-20T14:23:11.533Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-01-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-26T12:30:18.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-26T20:30:18.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2573 |
<p>The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (<a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/europes-gas-crisis-set-to-deepen-after-winter-drains-reserves" target="_blank">NASDAQ</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-yields-steep-discount-for-americans.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-10-04/top-eu-officials-call-for-joint-borrowing-to-deal-with-energy-crisis" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023," expected in early June 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMEURSCAB1GQEU272020" target="_blank">FRED</a>). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking "EDIT GRAPH," and 2) changing "Units:" to "Percent Change."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.486Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7237, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by 2.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:56.148Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:56.148Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.494Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7238, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:59.422Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:59.422Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.502Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7239, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:53.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:53.908Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.510Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7240, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:55.044Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:55.045Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.518Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7241, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:57.229Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:57.230Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-06T21:21:58.526Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7242, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by 2.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2573, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:58.365Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:58.366Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 182, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-10T19:16:25.136Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "88%", "description": "\r\n <p>The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/europes-gas-crisis-set-to-deepen-after-winter-drains-reserves\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-yields-steep-discount-for-americans.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-10-04/top-eu-officials-call-for-joint-borrowing-to-deal-with-energy-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the \"GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023,\" expected in early June 2023 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMEURSCAB1GQEU272020\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking \"EDIT GRAPH,\" and 2) changing \"Units:\" to \"Percent Change.\"</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2573, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 182, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 46, "published_at": "2022-10-07T14:21:13.993Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-08T13:15:59.429Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-07T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-07T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1673 |
<p>Deaths from the COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil have been among the highest in the world (<a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/researchers-in-brazil-struggle-to-get-solid-covid-19-death-counts-67609" target="_blank">The Scientist</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/brazil-coronavirus-deaths-could-surpass-125000-by-august-us-study-says.html,%20https://covid19-projections.com/brazil" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO as of 1 October 2020 and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 August 2020</span>: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (</span></span><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200810-covid-19-sitrep-203.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (</span></span><a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">COVID-19 global dashboard</a>)<span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">. The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.</span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T14:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-26T14:47:38.850Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4066, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 90,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1673, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:16:18.887Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.611Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T14:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-26T14:47:38.870Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4067, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 90,000 and 120,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1673, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:20:05.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.715Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T14:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-26T14:47:38.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4068, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1673, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:22:59.223Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.796Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T14:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-26T14:47:38.910Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4069, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 150,000 and 180,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1673, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:11:26.305Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.906Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T14:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-26T14:47:38.932Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4070, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1673, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:13:10.702Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.996Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1160, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-01T00:49:50.561Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 93, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Deaths from the COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil have been among the highest in the world (<a href=\"https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/researchers-in-brazil-struggle-to-get-solid-covid-19-death-counts-67609\" target=\"_blank\">The Scientist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/brazil-coronavirus-deaths-could-surpass-125000-by-august-us-study-says.html,%20https://covid19-projections.com/brazil\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO as of 1 October 2020 and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 17 August 2020</span>: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (</span></span><a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200810-covid-19-sitrep-203.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\">, see first entry under \"Highlights\") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (</span></span><a href=\"https://covid19.who.int/\" target=\"_blank\">COVID-19 global dashboard</a>)<span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\">. The data provided on WHO's \"COVID-19 global dashboard\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.</span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000\" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-10-01T07:01:29.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1673, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:48.082+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:35.413+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:16:21.099+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:51:46.059+00:00"}, "name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1146, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 183, "published_at": "2020-06-26T16:51:48.205Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:22:59.367Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-26T10:00:29.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-26T17:00:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2285 |
<p>Agricultural commodity prices have been rising, and war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, both large wheat producers, may impact production (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/wheat-soybeans-hit-nine-year-highs-as-russia-invades-ukraine.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eu-plans-harshest-sanctions-package-russia-83079403" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@W.1" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Wheat is priced per 5,000 bushels (<a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.contractSpecs.html" target="_blank">CME</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 March 2022</span>: While the named source labels its data as USD, this is not technically accurate. Therefore, the dollar symbols have been removed from the answer bins. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@W.1" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $950.00 and $1,075.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 15 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.618Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6099, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 700.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:11.544Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:11.545Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6100, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700.00 and 825.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:16.340Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:16.340Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6101, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 825.00 but less than 950.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:21.240Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:21.241Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.678Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6102, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 950.00 and 1,075.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:26.140Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:26.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.696Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6103, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,075.00 but less than 1,200.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:30.878Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:30.879Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T20:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-25T15:34:54.714Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6104, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1,200.00 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 135, "predictions_count": 877, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2285, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:06.793Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:06.794Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 891, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-14T15:00:52.195Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Agricultural commodity prices have been rising, and war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, both large wheat producers, may impact production (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/wheat-soybeans-hit-nine-year-highs-as-russia-invades-ukraine.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eu-plans-harshest-sanctions-package-russia-83079403\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@W.1\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). Wheat is priced per 5,000 bushels (<a href=\"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.contractSpecs.html\" target=\"_blank\">CME</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 15 March 2022</span>: While the named source labels its data as USD, this is not technically accurate. Therefore, the dollar symbols have been removed from the answer bins. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@W.1\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $950.00 and $1,075.00, inclusive\" with a closing date of 15 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-15T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2285, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 877, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 135, "published_at": "2022-02-25T15:49:28.300Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-16T14:01:30.886Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-25T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-25T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
Subsets and Splits