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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1805 |
The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for "Daily Counts," select "7-day average cases." The 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NYC last reached 1,500 on 5 May 2020. This question would resolve as of the date for which 1,500 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 7 March 2021.<p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020" with a closing date of 21 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-21T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T15:13:05.056Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4491, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 November 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1805, "question_name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:38:44.397Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:08.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-21T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T15:13:05.080Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4492, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1805, "question_name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:38:52.399Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:08.307Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-21T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T15:13:05.107Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4493, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 December 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1805, "question_name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:38:36.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:08.420Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-21T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T15:13:05.129Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4494, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1805, "question_name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:38:40.135Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:08.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-21T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-09T15:13:05.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4495, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 February 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 487, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1805, "question_name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:39:00.185Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:08.579Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 502, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-11-16T15:43:16.256Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "88%", "description": "\r\n The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for \"Daily Counts,\" select \"7-day average cases.\" The 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NYC last reached 1,500 on 5 May 2020. This question would resolve as of the date for which 1,500 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 7 March 2021.<p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020\" with a closing date of 21 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-02-01T08:01:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1805, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:33:36.767+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:40.700+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:47:05.026+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:34:12.347+00:00"}, "name": "When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 487, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 85, "published_at": "2020-10-09T16:57:51.810Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:39:00.275Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-21T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-10-09T10:00:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-10-09T17:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1721 |
<p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:32:22.959Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4220, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 76, "predictions_count": 308, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1721, "question_name": "Who will win the election for California's 25th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:40.668Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:40.820Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:32:22.978Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4221, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 76, "predictions_count": 308, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1721, "question_name": "Who will win the election for California's 25th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.717Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:24.279Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:32:22.996Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4222, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 76, "predictions_count": 308, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1721, "question_name": "Who will win the election for California's 25th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:17.368Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:17.428Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 308, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1721, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:51.831+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:26.590+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:43:37.000+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:38:02.156+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for California's 25th Congressional District in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 308, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 76, "published_at": "2020-08-04T16:57:06.898Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.779Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-04T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-04T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2208 |
<p>South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-05/south-koreas-ex-top-prosecutor-to-challenge-moons-party-in-2022-presidential-election" target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211128000026" target="_blank">Korea Herald</a>). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-26/south-korea-s-moon-and-ex-rival-mend-fences-ahead-of-election" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "People Power Party" with a closing date of 9 March 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-09T09:30:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:39:34.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5866, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Democratic Party of Korea", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 303, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2208, "question_name": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:30.190Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:30.191Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-09T09:30:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:39:34.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5867, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "People Power Party", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 303, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2208, "question_name": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:32.933Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:32.934Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-03-09T09:30:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:39:34.087Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5868, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 303, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2208, "question_name": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:36.388Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:36.390Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 311, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-02-03T16:01:40.866Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "65%", "description": "\r\n <p>South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-05/south-koreas-ex-top-prosecutor-to-challenge-moons-party-in-2022-presidential-election\" target=\"_blank\">US News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211128000026\" target=\"_blank\">Korea Herald</a>). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-26/south-korea-s-moon-and-ex-rival-mend-fences-ahead-of-election\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"People Power Party\" with a closing date of 9 March 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-03-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2208, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 303, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2021-12-03T15:50:47.806Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-09T21:53:36.416Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-03-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2348 |
<p>In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-frances-presidential-election/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html" target="_blank">French Ministry of the Interior</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%" with a closing date of 24 April 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-24T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.510Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6286, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 35.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2348, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:10.379Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:10.380Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-24T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.520Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6287, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2348, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:18.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:18.360Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-24T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.528Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6288, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2348, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:21.049Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:21.050Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-24T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.536Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6289, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2348, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:12.954Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:12.954Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-24T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.543Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6290, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2348, "question_name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:15.527Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:15.528Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 362, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-04-19T21:06:28.680Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "62%", "description": "\r\n <p>In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-frances-presidential-election/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico.eu</a>, <a href=\"https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html\" target=\"_blank\">French Ministry of the Interior</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%\" with a closing date of 24 April 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-04-24T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2348, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 346, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 120, "published_at": "2022-04-11T20:01:59.608Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-25T13:31:21.058Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-04-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-11T13:01:59.608-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-11T20:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854 |
<p>Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185" target="_blank">BBC</a>). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, only for president" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-04T15:20:09.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4624, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only for president", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1854, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:16.123Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:16.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-04T15:20:09.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4625, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only for parliament", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1854, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:29.763Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:29.764Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-04T15:20:09.275Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4626, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1854, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:22.764Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:22.768Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-04T15:20:09.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4627, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1854, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:52:51.994Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:52:51.995Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 224, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-14T04:57:51.874Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 110, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "47%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/\" target=\"_blank\">Diplomat</a>). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, only for president\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1854, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:56.200+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:33.538+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 221, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 35, "published_at": "2020-12-04T17:56:34.631Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:53:29.803Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-12-04T10:00:57.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-12-04T18:00:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1986 |
<p>In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/saudi-arabia-said-to-plan-voluntary-oil-output-cut-in-february" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-cuts-int/opec-extends-most-oil-output-cuts-into-april-saudi-keeps-voluntary-curb-idUSKBN2AW0WA" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4a88ce3e-42aa-43de-ae3f-cd6d10c1c9e4" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table in the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (<a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm" target="_blank">OPEC</a>). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) (<a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/images/content/publications/OPEC_MOMR_February-2021.pdf" target="_blank">OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021</a>, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-09T14:00:24.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5044, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 8,000 tb/d", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1986, "question_name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:05.845Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:05.852Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-09T14:00:24.169Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5045, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1986, "question_name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:18.539Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:18.541Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-09T14:00:24.194Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5046, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1986, "question_name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:31.370Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:31.378Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-09T14:00:24.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5047, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1986, "question_name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:41.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:41.509Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-09T14:00:24.244Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5048, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 9,500 tb/d", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1986, "question_name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:51.274Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:51.277Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 580, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-23T00:44:03.734Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 101, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "11%", "description": "\r\n <p>In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/saudi-arabia-said-to-plan-voluntary-oil-output-cut-in-february\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-cuts-int/opec-extends-most-oil-output-cuts-into-april-saudi-keeps-voluntary-curb-idUSKBN2AW0WA\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4a88ce3e-42aa-43de-ae3f-cd6d10c1c9e4\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d\" table in the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC</a>). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) (<a href=\"https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/images/content/publications/OPEC_MOMR_February-2021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021</a>, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-08-01T07:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1986, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:52.764+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:19.104+00:00"}, "name": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 558, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 157, "published_at": "2021-04-09T18:02:37.232Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-12T13:54:51.296Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-04-09T11:02:37.232-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-04-09T18:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2116 |
<p>Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (<a href="https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/what-the-record-high-101-million-job-openings-means-the-economic-recovery" target="_blank">US Chamber of Commerce</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/labor-shortage-gives-retail-and-restaurant-workers-the-upper-hand.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm" target="_blank">BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule</a>). For May 2021, the number of job openings for "Trade, transportation, and utilities" was 1,687 (in thousands) (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_08092021.pdf" target="_blank">JOLTS - June 2021</a>, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Trade, transportation, and utilities." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.490Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5504, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 1.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:01.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:01.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.506Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5505, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:02.642Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:02.644Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.521Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5506, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:04.148Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:04.150Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.537Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5507, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:05.687Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:05.688Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.553Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5508, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:07.213Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:07.214Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.568Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5509, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2.2 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 205, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2116, "question_name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:08.751Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:08.752Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/what-the-record-high-101-million-job-openings-means-the-economic-recovery\" target=\"_blank\">US Chamber of Commerce</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/labor-shortage-gives-retail-and-restaurant-workers-the-upper-hand.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule</a>). For May 2021, the number of job openings for \"Trade, transportation, and utilities\" was 1,687 (in thousands) (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_08092021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">JOLTS - June 2021</a>, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Trade, transportation, and utilities.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-01T08:01:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2116, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:15.825+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:59.364+00:00"}, "name": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 205, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2021-09-03T14:13:16.677Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:28:08.765Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-09-03T10:00:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-09-03T17:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2656 |
<p>Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3715725-rising-profits-are-driving-inflation-ubs-economist-says/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-11-21/factbox-world-banks-see-global-economy-slowing-more-in-2023-with-likely-u-s-recession" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in April 2023 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm" target="_blank">BLS</a>). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.374Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7565, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by less than 1.5% or down", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:29.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:29.022Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.383Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7566, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:24.229Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:24.230Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.391Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7567, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:34.030Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:34.031Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.398Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7568, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:44.901Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:44.902Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7569, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:39.729Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:39.730Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-02T15:39:42.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7570, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by 7.5% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2656, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:19.578Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:19.578Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 536, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-02T19:52:58.816Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 120, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3715725-rising-profits-are-driving-inflation-ubs-economist-says/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-11-21/factbox-world-banks-see-global-economy-slowing-more-in-2023-with-likely-u-s-recession\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in April 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2656, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 520, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 211, "published_at": "2022-12-02T16:06:20.177Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-12T13:34:44.910Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-02T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-02T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925 |
<p>The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions (<a href="https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020" target="_blank">NBA</a>). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 (<a href="https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/" target="_blank">NBC Sports</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Milwaukee Bucks" with a closing date of 20 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.768Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4813, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:09.697Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:09.709Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.806Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4814, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:23.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:23.688Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.836Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4815, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:37.899Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:37.923Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.866Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4816, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:52.424Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:51:52.468Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.898Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4817, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:52:19.191Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:52:19.212Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-21T04:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:01:20.928Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4818, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1925, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:52:05.223Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-21T12:52:05.233Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 933, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-18T22:18:24.470Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions (<a href=\"https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020\" target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 (<a href=\"https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/\" target=\"_blank\">NBC Sports</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Milwaukee Bucks\" with a closing date of 20 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-22T07:01:11.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1925, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:46.626+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:02.066+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 931, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 92, "published_at": "2021-02-05T17:48:48.150Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-21T12:52:19.266Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-20T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-05T10:00:11.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-05T18:00:11.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1836 | <p>Listening to unpopular, divergent, and nonconsensus views can be important to accurate forecasting. Think back to the last time you were presented with information with which you disagreed. What made you more likely to consider updating your forecast? What made you less likely? In more general terms, what can be done to promote greater epistemic humility and civil discourse on GJO?</p><p><div>This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing their thoughts regarding how to best share and listen to unpopular, divergent, opinions. You can also share any ideas which you consider to be constructive towards promoting more civilized and thoughtful conversations about forecasting topics on GJO.
</div><div><br></div><div>*This is <b>not </b>a forum for talking about any single forecasting question or group of questions as such. </div><div><br></div><div>*This is <b>not </b>a forum to flag any specific comments or user behavior.
</div><div><br></div><div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. To see Good Judgment Open’s Etiquette policy, please <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#etiquette" target="_blank">click here</a>. We have also posted a <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/keeping-it-civil/" target="_blank">blog post</a> on the importance of civil discourse. For research on the role of forecasting in promoting epistemic humility, please <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hal_Arkes/publication/328617335_Forecasting_tournaments_epistemic_humility_and_attitude_depolarization/links/5ddd78f2299bf10bc32952df/Forecasting-tournaments-epistemic-humility-and-attitude-depolarization.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
</div><div><br></div><div style="text-align: center; "><b>Remember, forecasting is concerned with what will happen, not what we want to happen.</b></div></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": {}, "answers_count": 0, "binary?": false, "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 157, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Listening to unpopular, divergent, and nonconsensus views can be important to accurate forecasting. Think back to the last time you were presented with information with which you disagreed. What made you more likely to consider updating your forecast? What made you less likely? In more general terms, what can be done to promote greater epistemic humility and civil discourse on GJO?</p><p><div>This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing their thoughts regarding how to best share and listen to unpopular, divergent, opinions. You can also share any ideas which you consider to be constructive towards promoting more civilized and thoughtful conversations about forecasting topics on GJO.\r\n</div><div><br></div><div>*This is <b>not </b>a forum for talking about any single forecasting question or group of questions as such. </div><div><br></div><div>*This is <b>not </b>a forum to flag any specific comments or user behavior.\r\n</div><div><br></div><div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. To see Good Judgment Open\u2019s Etiquette policy, please <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#etiquette\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>. We have also posted a <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/keeping-it-civil/\" target=\"_blank\">blog post</a> on the importance of civil discourse. For research on the role of forecasting in promoting epistemic humility, please <a href=\"https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hal_Arkes/publication/328617335_Forecasting_tournaments_epistemic_humility_and_attitude_depolarization/links/5ddd78f2299bf10bc32952df/Forecasting-tournaments-epistemic-humility-and-attitude-depolarization.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.\r\n</div><div><br></div><div style=\"text-align: center; \"><b>Remember, forecasting is concerned with what will happen, not what we want to happen.</b></div></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-15T17:00:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1836, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:00.234+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:33:59.920+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:45:37.390+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:45:36.928+00:00"}, "name": "How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 0, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 0, "published_at": "2020-11-10T22:37:25.020Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-10T14:37:25.020-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-10T22:12:47.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::DiscussionQuestion", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:00.245Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2359 |
<p>The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/average-us-gas-price-drops-10-cents-427-83998106" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/heres-how-much-drivers-in-every-state-spend-on-gas.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W" target="_blank">EIA</a>, see table).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.406Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6351, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 3.000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:19.839Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:19.840Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.415Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6352, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:14.083Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:14.084Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.422Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6353, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3.400 but less than 3.800", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:55.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:55.766Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.430Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6354, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:49.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:49.992Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6355, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4.200 but less than 4.600", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:07.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:07.472Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.444Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6356, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:01.342Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:01.342Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-20T00:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-14T20:36:09.452Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6357, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 192, "predictions_count": 873, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2359, "question_name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:44.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-20T00:24:44.223Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 880, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-15T15:22:09.757Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "\r\n <p>The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/average-us-gas-price-drops-10-cents-427-83998106\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/heres-how-much-drivers-in-every-state-spend-on-gas.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (<a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W\" target=\"_blank\">EIA</a>, see table).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive\" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-19T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2359, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:32:02.384+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:29:37.352+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 873, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 192, "published_at": "2022-04-15T14:54:27.742Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-20T00:25:19.848Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-15T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-15T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2371 |
<p>In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-14/chiles-constitutional-assembly-votes-to-replace-senate-with-new-chamber" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/chiles-boric-worried-about-drop-in-support-for-new-constitution.phtml" target="_blank">Buenos Aires Times</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/07/us-chile-politics-constitution" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20220405-chileans-to-vote-on-new-constitution-on-sept-4-says-government" target="_blank">France 24</a>). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 40.0%" with a closing date of 4 September 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-04T22:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:54:09.923Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6404, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 40.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2371, "question_name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:01.060Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:01.061Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-04T22:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:54:09.939Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6405, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2371, "question_name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.017Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.017Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-04T22:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:54:09.951Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6406, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50.0% but less than 60%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2371, "question_name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.472Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.473Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-04T22:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:54:09.962Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6407, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "60.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2371, "question_name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.928Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.929Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-04T22:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:54:09.977Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6408, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2371, "question_name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:01.546Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:01.547Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 76, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-14/chiles-constitutional-assembly-votes-to-replace-senate-with-new-chamber\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/chiles-boric-worried-about-drop-in-support-for-new-constitution.phtml\" target=\"_blank\">Buenos Aires Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/07/us-chile-politics-constitution\" target=\"_blank\">Euronews</a>). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20220405-chileans-to-vote-on-new-constitution-on-sept-4-says-government\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close \"Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022\" upon the announcement of that postponement.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 40.0%\" with a closing date of 4 September 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-09-04T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2371, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:18:26.290+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:18:02.472+00:00"}, "name": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 74, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 23, "published_at": "2022-04-29T15:40:29.567Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-08T21:43:02.935Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-09-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3115 | <p>The next general election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, is scheduled for phases in the spring of 2024 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/narendra-modis-expected-re-election-will-inspire-fear-and-hope" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-06-23/indias-opposition-parties-unite-for-2024-national-elections-bjp-says-not-worried" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA electoral alliance hoping to extend their majority for another term, though it faces challenges ahead (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/india-modi-elections-opposition-states-vote-058306fcf752808b694987a57c8b44d0" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jds-announces-alliance-with-bjp-nadda-welcomes-karnataka-party-into-nda-fold/articleshow/103865134.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank">Times of India</a>). The suspend date will be changed to the day before polls are scheduled to close in the first phase of voting once officially set, expected between April and May 2024 (e.g., 2019 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/11/india-elections-all-you-need-to-know" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). In the event of a split within the NDA, the electoral alliance including the BJP will be considered the successor to the NDA.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T21:57:17.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "7%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9519, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "271 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0699, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 271, "probability": 0.0699, "probability_formatted": "7%", "question_id": 3115, "question_name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:21:56.662Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T21:57:17.859Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "18%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9520, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 272 and 298", "normalized_probability": 0.1791, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 270, "probability": 0.1791, "probability_formatted": "18%", "question_id": 3115, "question_name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:20:43.354Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T21:57:17.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "43%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9521, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 299 and 325", "normalized_probability": 0.4307, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 271, "probability": 0.4307, "probability_formatted": "43%", "question_id": 3115, "question_name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:21:56.650Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T21:57:17.872Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "25%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9522, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 326 and 352", "normalized_probability": 0.2474, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 269, "probability": 0.2474, "probability_formatted": "25%", "question_id": 3115, "question_name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T17:44:36.250Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T21:57:17.879Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "7%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9523, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "353 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.073, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 271, "probability": 0.073, "probability_formatted": "7%", "question_id": 3115, "question_name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:21:56.667Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 273, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The next general election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, is scheduled for phases in the spring of 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/narendra-modis-expected-re-election-will-inspire-fear-and-hope\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-06-23/indias-opposition-parties-unite-for-2024-national-elections-bjp-says-not-worried\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA electoral alliance hoping to extend their majority for another term, though it faces challenges ahead (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/india-modi-elections-opposition-states-vote-058306fcf752808b694987a57c8b44d0\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jds-announces-alliance-with-bjp-nadda-welcomes-karnataka-party-into-nda-fold/articleshow/103865134.cms?from=mdr\" target=\"_blank\">Times of India</a>). The suspend date will be changed to the day before polls are scheduled to close in the first phase of voting once officially set, expected between April and May 2024 (e.g., 2019 <a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/11/india-elections-all-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>). In the event of a split within the NDA, the electoral alliance including the BJP will be considered the successor to the NDA.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2024-04-12T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3115, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 271, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 189, "published_at": "2023-11-14T14:40:17.450Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-14T07:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-14T15:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:21:59.103Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2963 | <p>Rising tensions between Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have observers concerned about a third "Intifada," or uprising (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-violence-raid-army-2cd32276d1c3c85f21a0462420227382" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66111228" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/5/israel-bombs-gaza-following-jenin-assault" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/intifada" target="_blank">Britannica - Intifada</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data once published by B’Tselem through 28 December 2023 (<a href="https://statistics.btselem.org/en/stats/since-cast-lead/by-date-of-incident?section=overall&tab=overview&regionSensor=%5B%22b40f813%22%2C%225f6a04e%22%5D" target="_blank">B'Tselem</a>, "Gaza Strip" and "West Bank (including East Jerusalem)," conditions set in link; click download button in the "Palestinians killed by Israeli forces" chart for xlsx file). "Date of event" entries between and including 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023 will count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.093Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8852, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 25", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-16T21:52:27.744Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.105Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8853, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 25 and 50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-07T19:51:45.679Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.113Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8854, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50 but fewer than 100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-07T19:51:45.688Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.120Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8855, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100 and 250, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-21T14:03:41.265Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8856, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 250 but fewer than 500", "normalized_probability": 0.03, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.03, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-21T14:03:41.276Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:22:36.135Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "96%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8857, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "500 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.96, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 168, "probability": 0.96, "probability_formatted": "96%", "question_id": 2963, "question_name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-21T14:03:41.280Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 169, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Rising tensions between Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have observers concerned about a third \"Intifada,\" or uprising (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-violence-raid-army-2cd32276d1c3c85f21a0462420227382\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66111228\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/5/israel-bombs-gaza-following-jenin-assault\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.britannica.com/topic/intifada\" target=\"_blank\">Britannica - Intifada</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data once published by B\u2019Tselem through 28 December 2023 (<a href=\"https://statistics.btselem.org/en/stats/since-cast-lead/by-date-of-incident?section=overall&tab=overview&regionSensor=%5B%22b40f813%22%2C%225f6a04e%22%5D\" target=\"_blank\">B'Tselem</a>, \"Gaza Strip\" and \"West Bank (including East Jerusalem),\" conditions set in link; click download button in the \"Palestinians killed by Israeli forces\" chart for xlsx file). \"Date of event\" entries between and including 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023 will count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-29T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2963, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 4 August 2023 and 28 December 2023, how many Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be killed by Israeli forces, according to B\u2019Tselem?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 168, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 46, "published_at": "2023-08-04T16:00:03.741Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-04T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-04T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T14:00:04.258Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2804 |
<p>With higher interest rates and troubles in the banking industry, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/unemployment-for-black-and-hispanic-women-rose-in-february.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/shrinking-savings-rising-debt-leave-consumers-shaky-financial-footing-rcna75389" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 4 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 5 May 2023 (<a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" target="_blank">BLS</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 3.5%" with a closing date of 5 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:29.223Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:22:12.469Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8088, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 3.5%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2804, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:33.773Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:33.773Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:29.223Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:22:12.478Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8089, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.5% and 3.7%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2804, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:34.817Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:34.817Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:29.223Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:22:12.487Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8090, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3.7% but less than 4.1%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2804, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:30.534Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:30.535Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:29.223Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:22:12.496Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8091, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.1% and 4.3%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2804, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:31.616Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:31.617Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:29.223Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:22:12.504Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8092, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4.3%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2804, "question_name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:32.712Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:32.712Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 131, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>With higher interest rates and troubles in the banking industry, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/unemployment-for-black-and-hispanic-women-rose-in-february.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/shrinking-savings-rising-debt-leave-consumers-shaky-financial-footing-rcna75389\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 4 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 5 May 2023 (<a href=\"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 3.5%\" with a closing date of 5 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-04T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2804, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 130, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2023-03-22T13:39:51.535Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-05T14:18:34.825Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2174 |
<p>In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (<a href="https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>, <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html" target="_blank">China Daily</a>). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-28T20:18:52.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5695, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 203, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2174, "question_name": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:14.550Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:14.551Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-28T20:18:52.453Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5696, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1 or 2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 203, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2174, "question_name": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:15.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:15.887Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-28T20:18:52.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5697, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 203, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2174, "question_name": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:17.196Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:17.196Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-28T20:18:52.484Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5698, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 203, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2174, "question_name": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:18.718Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:18.719Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 204, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-20T21:53:13.468Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 162, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "34%", "description": "\r\n <p>In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" (<a href=\"https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571\" target=\"_blank\">Taipei Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html\" target=\"_blank\">China Daily</a>). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico.eu</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"0\" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2174, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 203, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 48, "published_at": "2021-10-29T13:23:19.280Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T19:55:18.727Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2792 | <p>With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/16/biden-administration-strategic-petroleum-reserve-00074369" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3857568-us-to-move-forward-with-scheduled-26m-barrel-sale-from-strategic-oil-reserve/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/strategic-petroleum-reserve-9" target="_blank">Department of Energy</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M" target="_blank">EIA</a>). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-03-10T14:48:46.357Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8033, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 330,000 thousand barrels", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2792, "question_name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-29T21:32:22.206Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-03-10T14:48:46.365Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "98%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8034, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.98, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.98, "probability_formatted": "98%", "question_id": 2792, "question_name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-10T14:30:38.460Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-03-10T14:48:46.373Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8035, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2792, "question_name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-10T14:30:38.465Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-03-10T14:48:46.380Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8036, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2792, "question_name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-05T21:32:25.378Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-03-10T14:48:46.388Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8037, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 450,000 thousand barrels", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2792, "question_name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T20:54:05.512Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 219, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/16/biden-administration-strategic-petroleum-reserve-00074369\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3857568-us-to-move-forward-with-scheduled-26m-barrel-sale-from-strategic-oil-reserve/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.energy.gov/fecm/strategic-petroleum-reserve-9\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Energy</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M\" target=\"_blank\">EIA</a>). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2792, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 219, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-03-10T17:51:48.529Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-10T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-10T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1723 |
<p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:39:35.929Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4226, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 290, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1723, "question_name": "Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:26:18.480Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.652Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:39:35.949Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4227, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 290, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1723, "question_name": "Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:27:04.583Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.706Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:39:35.968Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4228, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 290, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1723, "question_name": "Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:27:57.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.759Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 293, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1723, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:54.291+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:31.889+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:54:59.507+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:51:18.496+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 290, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 70, "published_at": "2020-08-04T16:57:15.027Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:27:58.478Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-04T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-04T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741 |
<p>As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/" target="_blank">TechCrunch</a>, <a href="https://www.starlink.com/" target="_blank">Starlink</a>). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 July 2021" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T12:48:54.183Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4281, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 January 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 1270, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1741, "question_name": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:54:46.275Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:54:46.276Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T12:48:54.234Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4282, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 1270, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1741, "question_name": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T17:03:54.486Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T17:03:54.490Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T12:48:54.259Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4283, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 1270, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1741, "question_name": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T17:09:29.598Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T17:09:29.599Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T12:48:54.284Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4284, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 1270, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1741, "question_name": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T16:59:18.162Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T16:59:18.166Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1298, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-25T06:51:42.378Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 127, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "60%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/\" target=\"_blank\">TechCrunch</a>, <a href=\"https://www.starlink.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Starlink</a>). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 July 2021\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1741, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:59.891+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:59.233+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T02:52:25.912+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T02:50:10.418+00:00"}, "name": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1270, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 400, "published_at": "2020-08-14T16:55:36.956Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T17:09:29.763Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-14T10:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-14T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.186Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779 |
<p>
This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences. You can also share any models or procedures that you think might be useful to others. It is also a space where you can pose questions to other forecasters regarding how they approach their questions.</p><p>
</p><div>
</div><div>This is not a forum for talking about any one forecasting question or group of questions as such.
</div><div>
</div><div><br></div><div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. For training material on forecasting endorsed by GJ, please see our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/training" target="_blank">Free Training Materials</a>, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/resources/online-training/" target="_blank">Online Training</a>, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/resources/upcoming-workshops/" target="_blank">Workshops</a>, and the book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/" target="_blank">Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction</a>.</div><div><br></div><div style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:18px;"><b><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2747-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2023-thread" target="_blank">CURRENT TIPS AND TRICKS THREAD (#2747)</a></b></span></div><div>
</div>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": {}, "answers_count": 0, "binary?": false, "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 574, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>\r\n This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences. You can also share any models or procedures that you think might be useful to others. It is also a space where you can pose questions to other forecasters regarding how they approach their questions.</p><p>\r\n \r\n </p><div>\r\n</div><div>This is not a forum for talking about any one forecasting question or group of questions as such.\r\n</div><div>\r\n</div><div><br></div><div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. For training material on forecasting endorsed by GJ, please see our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/training\" target=\"_blank\">Free Training Materials</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/resources/online-training/\" target=\"_blank\">Online Training</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/resources/upcoming-workshops/\" target=\"_blank\">Workshops</a>, and the book\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/\" target=\"_blank\">Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction</a>.</div><div><br></div><div style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-size:18px;\"><b><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2747-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2023-thread\" target=\"_blank\">CURRENT TIPS AND TRICKS THREAD (#2747)</a></b></span></div><div>\r\n</div>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1779, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:38.855+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:38.612+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:49.425+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:46.522+00:00"}, "name": "[Old Thread] Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters? [Old 2020-21 Thread]", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 0, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 0, "published_at": "2020-09-04T19:11:08.535Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-09-04T12:11:08.535-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-09-04T19:01:11.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::DiscussionQuestion", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:17.295Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696 |
<p>Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail" target="_blank">Centre for International Governance Innovation</a>). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.</p><p>This question is the longer-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">#1695</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 13 November 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) <b>unless </b>they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:29:46.448Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4144, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, a firm", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 125, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1696, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:09.245Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:09.247Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:29:46.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4145, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 125, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1696, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:11.955Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:11.956Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:29:46.488Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4146, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 125, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1696, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:14.881Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:14.882Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:29:46.508Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4147, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 125, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1696, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:17.883Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:17.884Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 352, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-15T15:11:42.556Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 351, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (<a href=\"https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/\" target=\"_blank\">Ars Technica</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail\" target=\"_blank\">Centre for International Governance Innovation</a>). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.</p><p>This question is the longer-term companion of question\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">#1695</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.<br></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 13 November 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, to \"face criminal charges\" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) <b>unless </b>they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1696, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:18.493+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:21.691+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T02:39:24.068+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T02:38:41.782+00:00"}, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 340, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 125, "published_at": "2020-07-10T17:00:53.276Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-09T23:31:17.892Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-10T10:00:53.276-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-10T17:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-01-09T23:46:26.005Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2024 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July 2021, inclusive (<a href="https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv" target="_blank">JSU CSSE GitHub</a>). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5181, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:29:53.011Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:29:53.013Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.673Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5182, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:29:56.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:29:56.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.701Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5183, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:00.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:00.668Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.728Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5184, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:06.460Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:06.462Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.755Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5185, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4,000 but fewer than 5,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:15.689Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:15.691Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.782Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5186, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5,000 and 6,000 inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:19.640Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:19.644Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.809Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5187, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:23.936Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:23.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.837Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5188, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7,000 and 8,000 inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:26.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:26.655Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5189, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8,000 but fewer than 9,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:29.117Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:29.119Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-04T14:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:46:17.892Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5190, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "9,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2024, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:11.296Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:11.298Z"}], "answers_count": 10, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 207, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-06-03T12:02:15.478Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "3%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July\ufeff 2021, inclusive (<a href=\"https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv\" target=\"_blank\">JSU CSSE GitHub</a>). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 4 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-03T07:01:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2024, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:26.679+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:40.500+00:00"}, "name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 183, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 38, "published_at": "2021-06-02T17:49:31.587Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T23:30:29.130Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-02T11:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-02T18:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2876 | <p>Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/timeline-kais-saieds-crackdown-tunisia-suspending-parliament-arresting-ghannouchi" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-president-racism-migrants-african-382d1f18fc63d0c89d0e7425761bbb1b" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/tunisia/2023/05/05/tunisian-president-kais-saied-fires-energy-minister-after-petrol-price-comment/" target="_blank">The National</a>). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-05-11T20:16:37.141Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8486, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 12 August 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 143, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2876, "question_name": "When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-30T18:59:07.329Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-05-11T20:16:37.161Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8487, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 143, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2876, "question_name": "When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-22T14:56:00.237Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-05-11T20:16:37.167Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8488, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0231, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 143, "probability": 0.0231, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 2876, "question_name": "When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T22:36:02.590Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-05-11T20:16:37.174Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "98%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8489, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 12 February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.9769, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 143, "probability": 0.9769, "probability_formatted": "98%", "question_id": 2876, "question_name": "When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T22:36:02.582Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 143, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (<a href=\"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/timeline-kais-saieds-crackdown-tunisia-suspending-parliament-arresting-ghannouchi\" target=\"_blank\">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-president-racism-migrants-african-382d1f18fc63d0c89d0e7425761bbb1b\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/tunisia/2023/05/05/tunisian-president-kais-saied-fires-energy-minister-after-petrol-price-comment/\" target=\"_blank\">The National</a>). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-02-12T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2876, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 143, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 38, "published_at": "2023-05-11T21:10:45.428Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-05-11T14:10:45.428-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-05-11T21:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T22:36:02.705Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1615 |
<p>While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/493409-senate-battle-hinges-on-four-races" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-07T21:46:28.079Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3906, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 819, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1615, "question_name": "Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Maine in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:40:06.366Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:41.039Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-07T21:46:28.104Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3907, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 819, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1615, "question_name": "Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Maine in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:40:55.919Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:41.127Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-07T21:46:28.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3908, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 819, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1615, "question_name": "Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Maine in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:41:39.937Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:41.218Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 834, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/493409-senate-battle-hinges-on-four-races\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1615, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:55.398+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:29.109+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:39:26.233+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:29:17.566+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Maine in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 819, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 241, "published_at": "2020-05-08T17:20:18.308Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:41:40.081Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-05-08T10:20:18.308-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-05-08T17:00:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2569 |
<p>Like many other currencies, the Chinese renminbi has fallen versus the US dollar in 2022 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63056680" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tells-state-banks-prepare-141448869.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-CNY?window=6M" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>, set to "6M").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00" with a closing date of 14 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.519Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7220, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 6.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:18.908Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:18.908Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7221, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.00 and 6.25, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:24.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:24.174Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.541Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7222, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 6.25 but lower than 6.50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:20.616Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:20.617Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.551Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7223, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.50 and 6.75, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:25.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:25.927Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.563Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7224, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:29.426Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:29.427Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7225, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.00 and 7.25, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:27.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:27.629Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-14T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:27:46.584Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7226, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 7.25", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 330, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2569, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:22.501Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:22.501Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 332, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-21T19:09:14.441Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 83, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "58%", "description": "\r\n <p>Like many other currencies, the Chinese renminbi has fallen versus the US dollar in 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63056680\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tells-state-banks-prepare-141448869.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-CNY?window=6M\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>, set to \"6M\").</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00\" with a closing date of 14 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-14T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2569, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 330, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 39, "published_at": "2022-09-30T14:39:51.088Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-14T21:07:29.434Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-09-30T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-09-30T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3070 | <p>While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/30/government-shutdown-live-updates-congress-faces-funding-deadline.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2023/09/30/congress-funding-shutdown-colorado-members/" target="_blank">Colorado Public Radio</a>). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (<a href="https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-continuing-resolution-and-how-does-it-impact-government-operations" target="_blank">Government Accountability Office</a>, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:42:12.944Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9336, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 19 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 217, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3070, "question_name": "When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-25T01:14:14.912Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:42:12.955Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9337, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 211, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3070, "question_name": "When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T21:26:01.911Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:42:12.962Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9338, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.087, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.087, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 3070, "question_name": "When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:50:09.094Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:42:12.969Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "90%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9339, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 16 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.903, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.903, "probability_formatted": "90%", "question_id": 3070, "question_name": "When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:50:09.088Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/30/government-shutdown-live-updates-congress-faces-funding-deadline.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cpr.org/2023/09/30/congress-funding-shutdown-colorado-members/\" target=\"_blank\">Colorado Public Radio</a>). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (<a href=\"https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-continuing-resolution-and-how-does-it-impact-government-operations\" target=\"_blank\">Government Accountability Office</a>, <a href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Research Service</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-16T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3070, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 226, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2023-10-20T15:29:43.086Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-20T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-20T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:50:11.955Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2973 |
<p>The 2023 Rugby World Cup final is scheduled for 28 October 2023 in Saint-Denis, France (<a href="https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matches" target="_blank">Rugby World Cup</a>, <a href="https://www.planetrugby.com/news/all-the-2023-rugby-world-cup-squads-and-team-updates" target="_blank">Planet Rugby</a>, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2023/08/07/rugby-world-cup-2023-when-where-watch-tv-latest-odds/" target="_blank">Telegraph</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "South Africa" with a closing date of 28 October 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.432Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8904, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Australia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:17.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:17.220Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.439Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8905, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "England", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:11.522Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:11.523Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.446Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8906, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "France", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:12.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:12.894Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.454Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8907, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ireland", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:14.349Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:14.350Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.461Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8908, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New Zealand", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:08.145Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:08.146Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8909, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "South Africa", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:09.996Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:09.996Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-28T21:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:55:57.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8910, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 252, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2973, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:15.755Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:15.755Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 252, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The 2023 Rugby World Cup final is scheduled for 28 October 2023 in Saint-Denis, France (<a href=\"https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matches\" target=\"_blank\">Rugby World Cup</a>, <a href=\"https://www.planetrugby.com/news/all-the-2023-rugby-world-cup-squads-and-team-updates\" target=\"_blank\">Planet Rugby</a>, <a href=\"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2023/08/07/rugby-world-cup-2023-when-where-watch-tv-latest-odds/\" target=\"_blank\">Telegraph</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"South Africa\" with a closing date of 28 October 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-10-28T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2973, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 252, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 44, "published_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:49.070Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-28T21:18:17.226Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-10-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-11T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-11T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2166 |
<p>Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (<a href="https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/" target="_blank">RENX.ca</a>, <a href="https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx" target="_blank">Canadian Real Estate</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html" target="_blank">Toronto Star</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (<a href="https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research" target="_blank">Colliers Canada</a>). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (<a href="https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019" target="_blank">Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019</a>, <a href="https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3" target="_blank">Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:20:18.714Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5666, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2166, "question_name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:16.034Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:16.035Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:20:18.747Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5667, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2166, "question_name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:21.799Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:21.800Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:20:18.764Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5668, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2166, "question_name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:19.923Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:19.924Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:20:18.780Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5669, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2166, "question_name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:18.152Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:18.153Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:20:18.797Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5670, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 11.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2166, "question_name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:14.002Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:14.002Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 299, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-07-26T06:10:25.398Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 160, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "63%", "description": "\r\n <p>Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (<a href=\"https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/\" target=\"_blank\">RENX.ca</a>, <a href=\"https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian Real Estate</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html\" target=\"_blank\">Toronto Star</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome\u00a0 determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research\" target=\"_blank\">Colliers Canada</a>). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (<a href=\"https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019\" target=\"_blank\">Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019</a>, <a href=\"https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3\" target=\"_blank\">Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2166, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:42.818+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:34.257+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 298, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2021-10-22T15:47:09.287Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-30T16:53:21.807Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1753 |
<p>On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/nbaawards/2020" target="_blank">NBA</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks" with a closing date of 18 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-18T18:07:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:54:17.583Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4326, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 65, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1753, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-19T01:13:36.158Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.850Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-18T18:07:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:54:17.617Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4327, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "James Harden, Houston Rockets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 65, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1753, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-19T01:13:38.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.912Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-18T18:07:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-20T20:54:17.651Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4328, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 65, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1753, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-19T01:13:40.566Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:02.983Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 114, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-20T22:17:59.221Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 29, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.nba.com/nbaawards/2020\" target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks\" with a closing date of 18 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>", "ends_at": "2020-10-15T07:01:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1753, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:41.838+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:29.710+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:46:09.714+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:43:32.309+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 111, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 65, "published_at": "2020-08-20T20:58:12.691Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-19T01:13:40.675Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-09-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-20T14:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-20T21:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.173Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1646 |
<div>Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (<a href="https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795" target="_blank">Tesla</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the shorter-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022" target="_blank">#1647</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>
<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 400,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> </div> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:49:22.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3987, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 452, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1646, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:27:46.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-05T14:27:46.022Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:49:23.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3988, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 452, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1646, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:29:58.930Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-05T14:29:58.932Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:49:23.043Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3989, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 452, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1646, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:27:32.877Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-05T14:27:32.879Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:49:23.064Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3990, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 350,000 and 400,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 452, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1646, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:28:07.177Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-05T14:28:07.179Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:49:23.089Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3991, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 400,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 452, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1646, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:29:01.961Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-05T14:29:01.963Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 479, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-10-13T15:37:52.659Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 79, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "62%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <div>Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (<a href=\"https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the shorter-term companion of question <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022\" target=\"_blank\">#1647</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 400,000\" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p> </div>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T22:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1646, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:18.139+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:07.965+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:13:24.433+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:02:29.970+00:00"}, "name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 452, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 109, "published_at": "2020-06-05T18:56:40.295Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-05T14:29:59.099Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-05T12:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-05T19:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.132Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1593 | <p>The question will be suspended on 18 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 19 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 20 April under "Positive" (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/" target="_blank">COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 424,289 total cases through 8 April 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 April 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:07.998Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3806, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 700,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:36.252Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.737Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3807, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:28.342Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.997Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.231Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3808, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 750,000 but less than 800,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:21.364Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:27.243Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.359Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3809, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 800,000 and 850,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:15.781Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:27.474Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.455Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3810, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 850,000 but less than 900,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:08.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:27.687Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.544Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3811, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 900,000 and 950,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:03.457Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:27.961Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.650Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3812, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 950,000 but less than 1,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:01:59.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:28.208Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-20T18:59:06.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T15:01:08.744Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3813, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1,000,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 176, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1593, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:01:54.894Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:28.483Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 529, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The question will be suspended on 18 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 19 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 20 April under \"Positive\" (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/\" target=\"_blank\">COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 424,289 total cases through 8 April 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 19 April 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-04-19T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1593, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:28.945+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:42.107+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T14:36:30.524+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T14:27:47.207+00:00"}, "name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 502, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 176, "published_at": "2020-04-13T14:00:17.893Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-20T21:02:36.273Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-13T07:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-13T14:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2984 |
<p>Amidst higher interest rates, job openings in the US have fallen in 2023 but are still at historically elevated levels (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-01/us-job-openings-fall-to-more-than-two-year-low-in-june" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL" target="_blank">FRED</a>, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm" target="_blank">BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule</a>). As of 18 August 2023, the total number of job openings reported for November 2022 was 10,746 (in thousands), or 10.746 million.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.832Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8959, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 7.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:40.492Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:40.492Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.847Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8960, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:42.675Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:42.676Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.854Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8961, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:41.536Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:41.536Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.861Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8962, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:39.441Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:39.441Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.868Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8963, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:38.409Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:38.409Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8964, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:43.779Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:43.780Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T13:46:53.883Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8965, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 10.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2984, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:44.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:44.846Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 195, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Amidst higher interest rates, job openings in the US have fallen in 2023 but are still at historically elevated levels (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-01/us-job-openings-fall-to-more-than-two-year-low-in-june\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule</a>). As of 18 August 2023, the total number of job openings reported for November 2022 was 10,746 (in thousands), or 10.746 million.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2984, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 194, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 42, "published_at": "2023-08-18T15:03:52.872Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-03T15:27:44.853Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T15:29:20.106Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2203 |
<p>Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/a-sharp-rise-in-wages-is-contributing-to-worries-over-inflation.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wages-and-prices-are-up-but-it-isnt-a-spiralyet-11635688981" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private," expected on 4 November 2022 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5" target="_blank">FRED</a>, adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.047Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5844, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of less than 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:58.295Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:58.296Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5845, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:19.240Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:19.240Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.085Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5846, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:47.343Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:47.344Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.100Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5847, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:17.457Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:17.458Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.116Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5848, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:39.264Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:39.265Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-01T13:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-24T20:57:24.131Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5849, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "An increase of 6.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2203, "question_name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:46.331Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-04T13:35:46.332Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 510, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-27T01:02:33.424Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 309, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "\r\n <p>Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/a-sharp-rise-in-wages-is-contributing-to-worries-over-inflation.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/wages-and-prices-are-up-but-it-isnt-a-spiralyet-11635688981\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private,\" expected on 4 November 2022 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>, adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2203, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:10.743+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:16.136+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 510, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 122, "published_at": "2021-11-26T16:36:19.010Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-04T13:36:47.354Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-26T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-26T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2684 |
<p>On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and approval from Hungary and Turkey were the final remaining obstacles to membership as of the end of 2022 (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/08/1141645044/turkey-is-keeping-finland-and-sweden-from-joining-nato" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/24/viktor-orban-promises-hungary-will-ratify-nato-membership-for-finland-and-sweden-in-januar" target="_blank">Euronews</a>, <a href="https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession" target="_blank">NATO Parliamentary Assembly</a>). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48830.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, Finland only" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T14:54:11.008Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7671, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, Finland only", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1149, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2684, "question_name": "Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-01T14:25:26.744Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-01T14:25:26.745Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T14:54:11.023Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7672, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, Sweden only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1149, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2684, "question_name": "Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-01T14:23:11.261Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-01T14:23:11.262Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T14:54:11.037Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7673, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both Finland and Sweden", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1149, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2684, "question_name": "Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-01T14:24:36.500Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-01T14:24:36.501Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-12-30T14:54:11.052Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7674, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 183, "predictions_count": 1149, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2684, "question_name": "Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-01T14:25:39.994Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-01T14:25:39.994Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1229, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-18T07:18:00.085Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 105, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "43%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and approval from Hungary and Turkey were the final remaining obstacles to membership as of the end of 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>, <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/12/08/1141645044/turkey-is-keeping-finland-and-sweden-from-joining-nato\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/24/viktor-orban-promises-hungary-will-ratify-nato-membership-for-finland-and-sweden-in-januar\" target=\"_blank\">Euronews</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession\" target=\"_blank\">NATO Parliamentary Assembly</a>). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48830.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, Finland only\" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2684, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1149, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 183, "published_at": "2022-12-30T15:56:11.588Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-01T14:25:40.038Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-30T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-30T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2231 |
<p>The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/19/omicron-variant-doubling-covid-updates/8952895002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths" target="_blank">CDC</a>, parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000" with a closing date of 2 May 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.596Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5951, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 900,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:22.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:22.022Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.623Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5952, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:13.137Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:13.138Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.647Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5953, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:08.251Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:08.252Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.673Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5954, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:30.585Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:30.586Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.698Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5955, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:17.609Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:17.610Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.721Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5956, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:34.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:34.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-02T14:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T16:02:50.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5957, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,275,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 675, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2231, "question_name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:26.339Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:26.339Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 747, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-09T23:28:11.126Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 112, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter (<a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/19/omicron-variant-doubling-covid-updates/8952895002/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>, parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000\" with a closing date of 2 May 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2022-05-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2231, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 675, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 161, "published_at": "2021-12-23T16:43:27.841Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-06T21:13:34.893Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-05-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-23T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-23T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2807 |
<p>The Premier League is the highest level of professional soccer (football) in England and Wales (<a href="https://www.premierleague.com/" target="_blank">Premier League</a>, <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/tables" target="_blank">Premier League - Tables (Standings)</a>). Any games postponed to after 6 May 2023 would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Manchester City" with a closing date of 3 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:46:10.601Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8106, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Arsenal", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 277, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2807, "question_name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:17.253Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:17.253Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:46:10.609Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8107, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Manchester City", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 277, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2807, "question_name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:18.861Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:18.861Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:46:10.618Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8108, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Manchester United", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 277, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2807, "question_name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:20.514Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:20.515Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:46:10.626Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8109, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tottenham Hotspur", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 277, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2807, "question_name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:22.171Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:22.171Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-03T14:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:46:10.634Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8110, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 277, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2807, "question_name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:23.860Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:23.860Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 287, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-04-22T09:51:43.119Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "74%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Premier League is the highest level of professional soccer (football) in England and Wales (<a href=\"https://www.premierleague.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Premier League</a>, <a href=\"https://www.premierleague.com/tables\" target=\"_blank\">Premier League - Tables (Standings)</a>). Any games postponed to after 6 May 2023 would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Manchester City\" with a closing date of 3 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-05T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2807, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 277, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 79, "published_at": "2023-03-22T13:39:59.097Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T16:44:23.867Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1735 |
<p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T20:45:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-11T14:25:21.122Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4264, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1735, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:46:16.906Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:00.489Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T20:45:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-11T14:25:21.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4265, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1735, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:46:34.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:00.550Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T20:45:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-11T14:25:21.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4266, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1735, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:46:01.847Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:00.607Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 266, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-10-30T13:24:18.384Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1735, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:12.699+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:53.692+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:07:42.148+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:03:35.741+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 265, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2020-08-11T16:56:27.223Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:46:34.690Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-11T10:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-11T17:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2964 |
<p>A military coup in the West African country of Niger in late July 2023 has raised fears of greater instability in the conflict-torn region (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-west-africa-use-of-force-mali-burkina-faso-0b951ec77a89033c84e6f0972cc21b5f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/africa/protesters-attack-french-embassy-niger-west-african-governments-threat-rcna97181" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230731-eu-to-hold-niger-coup-leaders-responsible-for-attacks-on-embassies" target="_blank">France 24</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (<a href="https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard" target="_blank">ACLED Dashboard</a>). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Niger" under "Western Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 December 2023. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 47 total fatalities in April 2023 (22 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 14 attributed to "Battles," 8 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 250 but fewer than 500" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:29:30.014Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8858, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2964, "question_name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:36.165Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:36.165Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:29:30.025Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8859, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100 and 250, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2964, "question_name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:23.579Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:23.580Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:29:30.034Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8860, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 250 but fewer than 500", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2964, "question_name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:11.812Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:11.813Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:29:30.042Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8861, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 500 and 1,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2964, "question_name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:23:00.541Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:23:00.542Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:29:30.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8862, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2964, "question_name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:47.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:22:47.108Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 136, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-10-31T12:51:47.170Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 31, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "74%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>A military coup in the West African country of Niger in late July 2023 has raised fears of greater instability in the conflict-torn region (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-west-africa-use-of-force-mali-burkina-faso-0b951ec77a89033c84e6f0972cc21b5f\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/africa/protesters-attack-french-embassy-niger-west-african-governments-threat-rcna97181\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230731-eu-to-hold-niger-coup-leaders-responsible-for-attacks-on-embassies\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (<a href=\"https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\">ACLED Dashboard</a>). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Niger\" under \"Western Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" Click \"EVENT COUNT\" above the chart and change the selection to \"FATALITIES.\" Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 December 2023. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 47 total fatalities in April 2023 (22 attributed to \"Violence against civilians,\" 14 attributed to \"Battles,\" 8 attributed to \"Explosions/Remote violence,\" 3 attributed to \"Strategic developments,\" and none attributed to \"Riots\" or \"Protests\").</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 250 but fewer than 500\" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2964, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 134, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 24, "published_at": "2023-08-04T16:00:08.179Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-15T15:23:00.634Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-04T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-04T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:31:55.151Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2117 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (<a href="https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Massachusetts&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right#states-normalized" target="_blank">91-DIVOC</a>, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.</p><p><b>*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.</b></p><p>
</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 10 September 2021</span>: The question is concerned with the average over the past seven days, as reflected in the resolution source (e.g., 23.7 on 2 September 2021).</p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 October 2021</span>: On 22 October 2021, only 7-day averages as provided by 19-DIVOC will be used for determining whether the average rose above 28.5 or below 18.5.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts" with a closing date of 19 October 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-19T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-08T15:17:09.212Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5510, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2117, "question_name": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:07.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:07.867Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-19T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-08T15:17:09.234Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5511, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2117, "question_name": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:09.772Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:09.773Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-19T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-08T15:17:09.249Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5512, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2117, "question_name": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:11.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:11.707Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-10-19T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-08T15:17:09.264Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5513, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2117, "question_name": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:13.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:13.681Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 436, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-09-27T08:09:27.207Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "46%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (<a href=\"https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Massachusetts&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right#states-normalized\" target=\"_blank\">91-DIVOC</a>, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.</p><p><b>*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.</b></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 10 September 2021</span>: The question is concerned with the average over the past seven days, as reflected in the resolution source (e.g., 23.7 on 2 September 2021).</p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 15 October 2021</span>: On 22 October 2021, only 7-day averages as provided by 19-DIVOC will be used for determining whether the average rose above 28.5 or below 18.5.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts\" with a closing date of 19 October 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-10-19T07:01:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2117, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:14.327+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:59.971+00:00"}, "name": "Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 314, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 50, "published_at": "2021-09-08T15:17:09.357Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-10-22T21:13:13.689Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-10-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-09-08T09:00:39.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-09-08T16:00:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2042 |
<p>Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/socialist-castillo-close-victory-peru-few-votes-remain-be-counted-2021-06-12/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/world/americas/peru-election.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54948810" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-19T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:17:53.085Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5278, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 201, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2042, "question_name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:40.926Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:40.928Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-19T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:17:53.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5279, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, between 1 and 10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2042, "question_name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:46.421Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:46.423Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-19T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:17:53.134Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5280, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, between 11 and 50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2042, "question_name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:50.692Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:50.697Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-19T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:17:53.157Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5281, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, between 51 and 150", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2042, "question_name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:55.620Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-19T15:46:55.622Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-19T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:17:53.181Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5282, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, more than 150", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2042, "question_name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:47:00.269Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-19T15:47:00.271Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 213, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-06-18T18:22:26.047Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "3%", "description": "\r\n <p>Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/socialist-castillo-close-victory-peru-few-votes-remain-be-counted-2021-06-12/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/world/americas/peru-election.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54948810\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 19 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-18T07:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2042, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:49.640+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:16.780+00:00"}, "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 201, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 62, "published_at": "2021-06-17T21:54:32.268Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-19T15:47:00.293Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:38.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-17T22:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2001 |
<p>The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (<a href="https://www.edisonresearch.com/the-infinite-dial/" target="_blank">Edison Research</a>). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ "listened to a podcast in the last month" (<a href="http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-Infinite-Dial-2021.pdf" target="_blank">The Infinite Dial 2021</a>, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 25 May 2021</span>: The question is concerned with the 12+ age group as reported by The Infinite Dial.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 42%" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-06T19:57:05.661Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5113, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 42%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2001, "question_name": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:40.781Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:40.783Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-06T19:57:05.692Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5114, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 42% and 44%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2001, "question_name": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:44.050Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:44.051Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-06T19:57:05.719Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5115, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 44% but less than 48%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2001, "question_name": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:50.989Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:50.990Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-06T19:57:05.745Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5116, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "48% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2001, "question_name": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:47.837Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:47.838Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 459, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (<a href=\"https://www.edisonresearch.com/the-infinite-dial/\" target=\"_blank\">Edison Research</a>). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ \"listened to a podcast in the last month\" (<a href=\"http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-Infinite-Dial-2021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">The Infinite Dial 2021</a>, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 25 May 2021</span>: The question is concerned with the 12+ age group as reported by The Infinite Dial.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 42%\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2001, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:48.195+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:59.630+00:00"}, "name": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 434, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 134, "published_at": "2021-05-07T16:12:23.937Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-03-24T15:04:50.998Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-05-07T10:00:44.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-05-07T17:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1675 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,100.29 on 30 June 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-30T20:30:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-01T15:32:17.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4076, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Down more than 15.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1675, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:01:58.743Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.096Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-30T20:30:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-01T15:32:17.171Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4077, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1675, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T13:59:25.095Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.264Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-30T20:30:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-01T15:32:17.193Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4078, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1675, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:04:46.068Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.346Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-30T20:30:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-01T15:32:17.216Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4079, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1675, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:09:28.424Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.440Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-30T20:30:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-01T15:32:17.238Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4080, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up more than 15.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1675, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:07:16.338Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.533Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1585, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-10T12:03:25.828Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 51, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "44%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,100.29 on 30 June 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 30 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-09-30T07:01:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1675, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:26.564+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:40.541+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:29:13.539+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:53:12.736+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1549, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 280, "published_at": "2020-07-01T17:08:26.241Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T14:09:28.540Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-01T10:08:26.241-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762 |
<p>As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf" target="_blank">European Council</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (<a href="https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes" target="_blank">Ernst & Young</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 April 2021" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-01T14:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T13:53:17.080Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4355, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 355, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1762, "question_name": "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-01T15:37:41.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-01T15:37:41.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-01T14:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T13:53:17.106Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4356, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 355, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1762, "question_name": "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-01T15:37:14.202Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-01T15:37:14.204Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-01T14:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T13:53:17.131Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4357, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 355, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1762, "question_name": "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-01T15:39:34.307Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-01T15:39:34.308Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-01T14:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T13:53:17.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4358, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 355, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1762, "question_name": "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-01T15:38:35.397Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-01T15:38:35.399Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 393, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-16T17:12:28.765Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "93%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the \"Next Generation EU\" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (<a href=\"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">European Council</a>, <a href=\"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources\" target=\"_blank\">European Parliament</a>, <a href=\"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935\" target=\"_blank\">European Commission</a>). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (<a href=\"https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes\" target=\"_blank\">Ernst & Young</a>, <a href=\"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024\" target=\"_blank\">European Commission</a>). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 April 2021\" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-04-01T07:01:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1762, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:37.593+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:51.985+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:22:51.298+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:19:47.304+00:00"}, "name": "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 355, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 85, "published_at": "2020-08-28T17:01:30.953Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-01T15:39:34.432Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-28T10:01:30.953-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-28T17:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2590 | <p>Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (<a href="https://insideevs.com/news/613766/tesla-goal-bmw-production/" target="_blank">InsideEVs</a>, <a href="https://www.teslaownersonline.com/threads/tesla%E2%80%99s-output-forecast-shows-a-jump-in-production-q4-and-steady-growth-through-2023.24552/" target="_blank">Tesla Owners Online</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/WTULXQ_TSLA_Q3_2022_Update_KPK2Y7.pdf" target="_blank">Tesla - Q3 2022 Update</a>, see page 7).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.728Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7299, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 1.1 million", "normalized_probability": 0.03, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.03, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-04T07:07:48.360Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.736Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "4%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7300, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.04, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.04, "probability_formatted": "4%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-26T11:48:29.875Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7301, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-21T17:00:30.042Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.751Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "78%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7302, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.78, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.78, "probability_formatted": "78%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:00:18.109Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.758Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7303, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:00:18.116Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.765Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7304, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-26T15:13:08.763Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:00:53.772Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7305, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.6 million", "normalized_probability": 0.03, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.03, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 2590, "question_name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-21T17:00:30.047Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 409, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (<a href=\"https://insideevs.com/news/613766/tesla-goal-bmw-production/\" target=\"_blank\">InsideEVs</a>, <a href=\"https://www.teslaownersonline.com/threads/tesla%E2%80%99s-output-forecast-shows-a-jump-in-production-q4-and-steady-growth-through-2023.24552/\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Owners Online</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (<a href=\"https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/WTULXQ_TSLA_Q3_2022_Update_KPK2Y7.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla - Q3 2022 Update</a>, see page 7).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2590, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 404, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2022-10-21T14:25:53.044Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-21T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-21T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2293 |
<p>Global sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have pushed the value of the Russian ruble to historic lows (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-sanctions/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=6M" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>, set to "6M").</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Lower than 75.00" with a closing date of 15 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:42:28.805Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6116, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 75.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 167, "predictions_count": 1278, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2293, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:59.290Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:59.290Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:42:28.824Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6117, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 75.00 and 100.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 167, "predictions_count": 1278, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2293, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:15:14.828Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-16T16:15:14.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:42:28.841Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6118, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 100.00 but lower than 125.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 167, "predictions_count": 1278, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2293, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:15:08.109Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-16T16:15:08.110Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:42:28.858Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6119, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 125.00 and 150.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 167, "predictions_count": 1278, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2293, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:45.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:45.508Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-03T22:42:28.875Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6120, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 150.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 167, "predictions_count": 1278, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2293, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:52.152Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-16T16:14:52.153Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1313, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-05-13T15:39:39.597Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 63, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "\r\n <p>Global sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have pushed the value of the Russian ruble to historic lows (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-sanctions/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=6M\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>, set to \"6M\").</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Lower than 75.00\" with a closing date of 15 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-15T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2293, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1278, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 167, "published_at": "2022-03-04T15:50:42.098Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-16T16:15:14.837Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-07-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-04T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-04T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647 |
<div>Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (<a href="https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795" target="_blank">Tesla</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the longer-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1646-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2020" target="_blank">#1646</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>
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<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p>
<p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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<p>The question closed "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p>
<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
</div> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:55:17.879Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3992, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 700,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 106, "predictions_count": 420, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1647, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:03.936Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:03.937Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:55:17.900Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3993, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 106, "predictions_count": 420, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1647, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:09.985Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:09.986Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:55:17.922Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3994, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 106, "predictions_count": 420, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1647, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:13.046Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:13.047Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:55:17.945Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3995, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 106, "predictions_count": 420, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1647, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:16.980Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:16.980Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T14:55:17.967Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3996, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2,200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 106, "predictions_count": 420, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1647, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:06.951Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:06.952Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 434, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-22T16:07:30.779Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 70, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "82%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <div>Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (<a href=\"https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla</a>). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the longer-term companion of question <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1646-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2020\" target=\"_blank\">#1646</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>\r\n<p></p>\r\n<p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<hr>\n<p>The question closed \"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p>\n<p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\n</div>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1647, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:35.323+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:22.664+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:45:54.260+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:42:30.605+00:00"}, "name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 420, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 106, "published_at": "2020-06-05T18:57:28.565Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:28:16.989Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-05T12:00:57.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-05T19:00:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:44:45.496Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1991 |
<p>On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC" target="_blank">EUR-Lex</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 May 2021</span>: By way of example, if the EU imposes new restrictive measures on five individuals at once, that would count as one instance.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:40:50.937Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5060, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1991, "question_name": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:38:25.048Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:38:25.049Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:40:50.976Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5061, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1991, "question_name": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:39:18.744Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:39:18.746Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:40:51.005Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5062, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1991, "question_name": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:40:06.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:40:06.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:40:51.034Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5063, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 111, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1991, "question_name": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:40:52.531Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:40:52.532Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 415, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-05-03T19:25:34.708Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 243, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC\" target=\"_blank\">EUR-Lex</a>, <a href=\"https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en\" target=\"_blank\">European Commission</a>). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 3 May 2021</span>: By way of example, if the EU imposes new restrictive measures on five individuals at once, that would count as one instance.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"0\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1991, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:08.549+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:28.795+00:00"}, "name": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 404, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 111, "published_at": "2021-04-30T16:44:48.844Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:40:52.577Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-04-30T10:00:19.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-04-30T17:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.182Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2368 |
<p>Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/22/arctic-sea-ice-could-hit-maximum-extent-much-earlier-than-usual" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/march-earths-5th-warmest-march-on-record/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (<a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/" target="_blank">Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph</a>, <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/" target="_blank">About Charctic Data</a>). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-12T14:01:56.635Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:25:35.966Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6391, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 3.5 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2368, "question_name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:02:26.550Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-12T14:02:26.551Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-12T14:01:56.635Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:25:35.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6392, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2368, "question_name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:02:55.902Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-12T14:02:55.903Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-12T14:01:56.499Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:25:35.994Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6393, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2368, "question_name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:17.900Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:17.901Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-12T14:01:56.635Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:25:36.001Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6394, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2368, "question_name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:22.823Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:22.824Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-12T14:01:56.635Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T13:25:36.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6395, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.0 million sq. km", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 340, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2368, "question_name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:20.310Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:20.311Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 358, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-04-29T17:38:11.699Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 165, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/22/arctic-sea-ice-could-hit-maximum-extent-much-earlier-than-usual\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/march-earths-5th-warmest-march-on-record/\" target=\"_blank\">Yale Climate Connections</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) \"Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (<a href=\"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/\" target=\"_blank\">Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph</a>, <a href=\"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/\" target=\"_blank\">About Charctic Data</a>). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive\" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-11T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2368, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:26:32.373+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:26.455+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 340, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2022-04-29T15:40:18.716Z", "resolution_notes": ["", ""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-12T14:03:22.831Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-11T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2123 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021" with a closing date of 26 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-26T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-17T14:28:47.924Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5534, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 November 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2123, "question_name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:23.698Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:23.700Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-26T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-17T14:28:47.946Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5535, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2123, "question_name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:32.104Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:32.106Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-26T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-17T14:28:47.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5536, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2123, "question_name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:06.962Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:06.964Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-26T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-17T14:28:47.976Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5537, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2123, "question_name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:39.877Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:39.880Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-26T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2021-09-17T14:28:47.991Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5538, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 May 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2123, "question_name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:14.202Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:14.204Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 842, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-23T10:48:43.589Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "97%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021\" with a closing date of 26 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-05-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2123, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 674, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 122, "published_at": "2021-09-17T15:49:38.108Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T16:38:39.900Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-09-17T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-09-17T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2222 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the "Year to date" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (<a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/" target="_blank">SMMT - Car Registrations</a>, <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/" target="_blank">SMMT</a>). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 (<a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/" target="_blank">SMMT - News 6 December 2021</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.618Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5923, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 150,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:54.289Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:54.290Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.640Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5924, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:47.360Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:47.361Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.661Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5925, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:53:02.418Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:53:02.418Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.682Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5926, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:53:05.692Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:53:05.693Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.703Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5927, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:57.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:57.429Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.725Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5928, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "350,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 520, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2222, "question_name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:50.791Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-05T15:52:50.792Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 545, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-05-17T14:53:15.078Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 229, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "40%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (<a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT - Car Registrations</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT</a>). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT - News 6 December 2021</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2222, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:25.447+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:39.876+00:00"}, "name": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 520, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 74, "published_at": "2021-12-13T17:56:50.872Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-05T15:53:05.700Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-13T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-13T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3185 | <p>Looming deadlines on 19 January 2024 and 2 February 2024 for different government functions could mark the first federal shutdown since December 2018 to January 2019 (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/22/government-shutdown-2024-congress-deadline/71958121007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (<a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns" target="_blank">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>). As a reminder, this question is, by default, governed by dates in the Pacific Time Zone.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:34:48.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "18%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9856, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, before 1 April 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.1765, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.1765, "probability_formatted": "18%", "question_id": 3185, "question_name": "Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 July 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:16:27.153Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:34:48.491Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9857, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.12, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.12, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3185, "question_name": "Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 July 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:16:27.158Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:34:48.512Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "70%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9858, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.7035, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.7035, "probability_formatted": "70%", "question_id": 3185, "question_name": "Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 July 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:16:27.148Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 78, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Looming deadlines on 19 January 2024 and 2 February 2024 for different government functions could mark the first federal shutdown since December 2018 to January 2019 (<a href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/22/government-shutdown-2024-congress-deadline/71958121007/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>). For the purposes of this question, a \"shutdown of the US federal government\" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (<a href=\"https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns\" target=\"_blank\">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>). As a reminder, this question is, by default, governed by dates in the Pacific Time Zone.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3185, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 July 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 77, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 42, "published_at": "2023-12-29T16:47:36.817Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-29T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-29T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:16:29.479Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2541 |
<p>Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the 13th consecutive month in July 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/jolts-july-2022.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-openings-rose-in-july-jolts/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for June 2023, expected in July or August 2023 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm" target="_blank">BLS - JOLTS</a>). As of 9 September 2022, the number of job openings reported for June 2022 for "Total US" was 11,040 (in thousands) (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_08302022.pdf" target="_blank">JOLTS - July 2022</a>, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Total nonfarm." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7105, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 7.2 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:34.569Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:34.571Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.541Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7106, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.2 million and 8.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:36.121Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:36.121Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.549Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7107, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.8 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:40.539Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:40.540Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.557Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7108, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:32.611Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:32.612Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.565Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7109, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:38.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:38.887Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7110, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10.4 million and 11.2 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:29.187Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:29.187Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.580Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7111, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 11.2 million but fewer than 12.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:42.615Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:42.616Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-01T14:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-09T16:58:40.589Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7112, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "12.0 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 199, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2541, "question_name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:37.545Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:37.546Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 201, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-06-14T05:24:29.336Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "94%", "description": "\r\n <p>Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the 13th consecutive month in July 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/jolts-july-2022.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-openings-rose-in-july-jolts/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for June 2023, expected in July or August 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS - JOLTS</a>). As of 9 September 2022, the number of job openings reported for June 2022 for \"Total US\" was 11,040 (in thousands) (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_08302022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">JOLTS - July 2022</a>, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2541, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 199, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 34, "published_at": "2022-09-09T17:28:51.152Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-01T14:23:42.695Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-09-09T10:28:51.152-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-09-09T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949 |
<p>China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm" target="_blank">Gov.cn</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/" target="_blank">Brookings</a>). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980" target="_blank">Tribune India</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-26T14:59:46.042Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4872, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1949, "question_name": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:18.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:18.272Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-26T14:59:46.089Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4873, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1949, "question_name": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:36.419Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:36.420Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-26T14:59:46.125Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4874, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1949, "question_name": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:10.112Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:10.113Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 357, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-02T01:54:20.656Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 306, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>China\u2019s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Gov.cn</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings</a>). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980\" target=\"_blank\">Tribune India</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"0\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1949, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:20.262+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:56.716+00:00"}, "name": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 349, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 100, "published_at": "2021-02-26T18:02:14.793Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T17:37:36.455Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-26T10:02:14.793-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-26T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.182Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2200 |
<p>The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri" target="_blank">Chatham House</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/01/seven-years-into-chinas-belt-and-road/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-belt-and-road-in-italy-2-years-later/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (<a href="https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/info/iList.jsp?tm_id=126&cat_id=10122&info_id=77298" target="_blank">Belt and Road Portal</a> [in Mandarin], <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/countries-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-whos-and-whos-out" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210421-australia-cancels-state-s-belt-and-road-deal-with-china" target="_blank">France 24</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:24.239Z", "created_at": "2021-11-19T17:39:56.123Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5832, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2200, "question_name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:25.224Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:25.225Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:24.239Z", "created_at": "2021-11-19T17:39:56.138Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5833, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1 or 2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2200, "question_name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:25.977Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:25.978Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:24.239Z", "created_at": "2021-11-19T17:39:56.154Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5834, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2200, "question_name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:26.758Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:26.758Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:24.239Z", "created_at": "2021-11-19T17:39:56.168Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5835, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2200, "question_name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:27.673Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:27.674Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:24.239Z", "created_at": "2021-11-19T17:39:56.183Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5836, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2200, "question_name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:28.472Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:28.472Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 114, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-21T12:59:18.210Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 31, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "51%", "description": "\r\n <p>The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative\" target=\"_blank\">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href=\"https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri\" target=\"_blank\">Chatham House</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/01/seven-years-into-chinas-belt-and-road/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-belt-and-road-in-italy-2-years-later/\" target=\"_blank\">Diplomat</a>). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (<a href=\"https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/info/iList.jsp?tm_id=126&cat_id=10122&info_id=77298\" target=\"_blank\">Belt and Road Portal</a>\u00a0[in Mandarin], <a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/blog/countries-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-whos-and-whos-out\" target=\"_blank\">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210421-australia-cancels-state-s-belt-and-road-deal-with-china\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"7 or more\" with a closing date of 12 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2200, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 106, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 39, "published_at": "2021-11-19T21:48:00.973Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-21T16:28:28.480Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-21T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-19T14:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-19T22:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2901 |
<p>Elections for the Virginia General Assembly, which consists of the House of Delegates (House) and Senate, are scheduled to be held on 7 November 2023 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2023" target="_blank">Ballotpedia - Virginia House Elections</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_State_Senate_elections,_2023" target="_blank">Ballotpedia - Virginia Senate Elections</a>). As of the launch of this question, Republicans controlled the House and Democrats the Senate (<a href="https://www.virginiamercury.com/2023/03/21/general-assembly-tracker-everyone-who-says-they-arent-coming-back-next-year/" target="_blank">Virginia Mercury</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-virginia-fc0c6dca4a3f4573630e268f15500687" target="_blank">AP</a>). Non-Democratic candidates would not count, irrespective of any caucus affiliation.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, both the House and Senate" with a closing date of 7 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-08T00:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-02T14:05:45.500Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8596, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only the House", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 72, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2901, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:34.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:34.887Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-08T00:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-02T14:05:45.509Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8597, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only the Senate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 72, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2901, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:34.084Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:34.085Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-08T00:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-02T14:05:45.516Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8598, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both the House and Senate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 72, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2901, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:32.789Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:32.790Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-08T00:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-02T14:05:45.523Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8599, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 72, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2901, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:33.382Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:33.383Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 72, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-06T15:49:08.480Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n <p>Elections for the Virginia General Assembly, which consists of the House of Delegates (House) and Senate, are scheduled to be held on 7 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_elections,_2023\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia - Virginia House Elections</a>, <a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_State_Senate_elections,_2023\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia - Virginia Senate Elections</a>). As of the launch of this question, Republicans controlled the House and Democrats the Senate (<a href=\"https://www.virginiamercury.com/2023/03/21/general-assembly-tracker-everyone-who-says-they-arent-coming-back-next-year/\" target=\"_blank\">Virginia Mercury</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/politics-virginia-fc0c6dca4a3f4573630e268f15500687\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). Non-Democratic candidates would not count, irrespective of any caucus affiliation.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, both the House and Senate\" with a closing date of 7 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-11-07T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2901, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 72, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2023-06-02T15:08:34.451Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-08T14:48:34.898Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-02T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-02T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.751Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788 |
<p>Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return" target="_blank">Sky Sports</a>, <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq" target="_blank">Goal</a>, <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures" target="_blank">Premier League</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 24 May 2021" with a closing date of 24 May 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-24T13:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T22:52:38.592Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4437, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 19 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 799, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1788, "question_name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:31.745Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:31.748Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-24T13:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T22:52:38.625Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4438, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 799, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1788, "question_name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:55:21.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-24T13:55:21.668Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-24T13:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T22:52:38.659Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4439, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 799, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1788, "question_name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:46.496Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:46.499Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-24T13:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T22:52:38.692Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4440, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 799, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1788, "question_name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:57.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-24T13:54:57.926Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-24T13:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T22:52:38.727Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4441, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 24 May 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 799, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1788, "question_name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:55:10.931Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-24T13:55:10.934Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 824, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-20T05:37:07.547Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 246, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return\" target=\"_blank\">Sky Sports</a>, <a href=\"https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq\" target=\"_blank\">Goal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures\" target=\"_blank\">Premier League</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 24 May 2021\" with a closing date of 24 May 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-05-23T07:01:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1788, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:14.231+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:03.028+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:00:12.236+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:51:01.027+00:00"}, "name": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 799, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 227, "published_at": "2020-09-18T16:49:22.759Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-24T13:55:21.685Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-05-23T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-09-18T10:00:37.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-09-18T17:00:37.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2426 |
<p>The cryptocurrency market has been hit hard in the second quarter of 2022 (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/17/1105343423/cryptocurrencies-winter-crash-bitcoin-celcius" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/18/bitcoin-sinks-below-20000-as-crypto-meltdown-intensifies.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 2 December 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" (<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/" target="_blank">CoinMarketCap</a>, set "Zoom" to "7d").</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion" with a closing date of 2 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.524Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6655, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $400 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:41.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:41.060Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.534Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6656, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $400 billion and $800 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:50.261Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:50.262Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.541Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6657, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:45.441Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:45.441Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.549Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6658, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $1.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:47.705Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:47.706Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.556Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6659, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $1.6 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:52.438Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:52.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.563Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6660, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $2.0 trillion and $2.4 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:38.719Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:38.720Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-03T07:45:26.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:54:26.571Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6661, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $2.4 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2426, "question_name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:43.291Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:43.292Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 308, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-24T23:34:07.231Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 161, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The cryptocurrency market has been hit hard in the second quarter of 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/06/17/1105343423/cryptocurrencies-winter-crash-bitcoin-celcius\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/18/bitcoin-sinks-below-20000-as-crypto-meltdown-intensifies.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 2 December 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" (<a href=\"https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinMarketCap</a>, set \"Zoom\" to \"7d\").</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion\" with a closing date of 2 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-02T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2426, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:51.462+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:03.686+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 305, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 44, "published_at": "2022-06-24T15:17:31.549Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-03T18:10:52.447Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-02T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-24T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1571 | <p>As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 2,696 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for Spain (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2b74edd8_2" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 15,000 deaths" with a closing date of 10 April 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:26:11.948Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3702, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 6,000 deaths", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 345, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1571, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:27:15.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.373Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:26:11.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3703, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6,000 and 9,000 deaths, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 345, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1571, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:27:10.551Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.500Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:26:12.007Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3704, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 9,000 but less than 12,000 deaths", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 345, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1571, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:27:05.081Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.597Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:26:12.037Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3705, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12,000 and 15,000 deaths, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 345, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1571, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:27:00.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.745Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:26:12.071Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3706, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 15,000 deaths", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 345, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1571, "question_name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:26:56.900Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.890Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 353, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-26T15:55:07.832Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 2,696 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for Spain (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2b74edd8_2\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 15,000 deaths\" with a closing date of 10 April 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-05-01T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1571, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:27.928+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:19:26.459+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:25:32.380+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:16:08.711+00:00"}, "name": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 345, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 172, "published_at": "2020-03-26T14:10:22.908Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T13:27:15.428Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-10T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-26T08:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-26T15:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583 |
<p>Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Clean Technica</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a <a href="https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">The Mack Institute</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.754Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3751, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Less than $80 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 374, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1583, "question_name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:35.409Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:35.410Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.785Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3752, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 374, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1583, "question_name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:38.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:38.508Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.814Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3753, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 374, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1583, "question_name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:41.780Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:41.781Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.842Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3754, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 374, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1583, "question_name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:45.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:45.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.869Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3755, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $140 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 374, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1583, "question_name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:48.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:48.870Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 380, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href=\"https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">Clean Technica</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a\u00a0<a href=\"https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" (<a href=\"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">The Mack Institute</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1583, "image": null, "membership_id": 22, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:59.980+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:53.462+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:24:40.553+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:18:30.846+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 374, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 114, "published_at": "2020-04-02T16:51:49.981Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-01T15:16:48.886Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-02T10:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-02T17:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-02-01T15:33:25.783Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3003 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (<a href="https://www.nfl.com/standings/" target="_blank">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Detroit Lions" with a closing date of 24 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-24T21:12:11.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:36:35.290Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9069, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Chicago Bears", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3003, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:16.066Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:16.067Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-24T21:12:11.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:36:35.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9070, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Detroit Lions", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3003, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:13.515Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:13.516Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-24T21:12:11.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:36:35.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9071, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Green Bay Packers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3003, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:14.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:14.791Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-24T21:12:11.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:36:35.311Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9072, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3003, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:17.527Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:17.528Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-09-04T05:13:43.743Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 112, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (<a href=\"https://www.nfl.com/standings/\" target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Detroit Lions\" with a closing date of 24 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-07T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3003, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 226, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-09-01T15:19:17.042Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-25T00:26:17.536Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-24T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.688Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3132 | <p>Gas prices in the US fell throughout the fall of 2024, but upside risks remain (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/20/us-gas-prices-are-falling-and-could-hit-the-cheapest-thanksgiving-day-price-since-2020.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/transportation/4320072-gas-prices-could-hit-lowest-thanksgiving-level-in-years/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 5 March 2024 (<a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA</a>, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.641Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9583, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $2.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.660Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.650Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9584, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.644Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.659Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9585, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $2.45 but less than $2.80", "normalized_probability": 0.09, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.09, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.629Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.666Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "42%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9586, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.42, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 103, "probability": 0.42, "probability_formatted": "42%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:54:19.498Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.674Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "34%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9587, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.15 but less than $3.50", "normalized_probability": 0.34, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.34, "probability_formatted": "34%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.624Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.681Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "6%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9588, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.06, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 103, "probability": 0.06, "probability_formatted": "6%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:54:19.505Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.688Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "4%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9589, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.85 but less than $4.20", "normalized_probability": 0.04, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.04, "probability_formatted": "4%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.639Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.696Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9590, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.634Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-22T21:24:10.703Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9591, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $4.65", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3132, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:39:38.654Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 103, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Gas prices in the US fell throughout the fall of 2024, but upside risks remain (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/20/us-gas-prices-are-falling-and-could-hit-the-cheapest-thanksgiving-day-price-since-2020.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/regulation/transportation/4320072-gas-prices-could-hit-lowest-thanksgiving-level-in-years/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 5 March 2024 (<a href=\"https://gasprices.aaa.com/\" target=\"_blank\">AAA</a>, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-05T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3132, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 103, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 31, "published_at": "2023-11-24T16:07:40.196Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-24T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-24T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T17:54:21.942Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3186 | <p>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing weak polling and has reportedly said that there will be parliamentary elections called in 2024 (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sunak-now-polling-worse-than-truss-with-key-uk-voters/ar-AA1kXEj6" target="_blank">MSN</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-general-election-keir-starmer-b2466424.html" target="_blank">The Independent</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62064552" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:41:42.322Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9859, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 July 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.1169, "positions_count": 63, "predictions_count": 103, "probability": 0.1169, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3186, "question_name": "When will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:30:24.676Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:41:42.332Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "79%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9860, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.7896, "positions_count": 63, "predictions_count": 103, "probability": 0.7896, "probability_formatted": "79%", "question_id": 3186, "question_name": "When will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:30:24.667Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-28T21:41:42.341Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9861, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 January 2025", "normalized_probability": 0.0935, "positions_count": 63, "predictions_count": 103, "probability": 0.0935, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 3186, "question_name": "When will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:30:24.671Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 104, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing weak polling and has reportedly said that there will be parliamentary elections called in 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sunak-now-polling-worse-than-truss-with-key-uk-voters/ar-AA1kXEj6\" target=\"_blank\">MSN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-general-election-keir-starmer-b2466424.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Independent</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62064552\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2025-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3186, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 103, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 63, "published_at": "2023-12-29T16:47:40.330Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-29T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-29T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:30:27.235Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1506 | <p>The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak that began in late 2019 is drawing comparisons with the 2002-03 SARS outbreak, which killed 774 people (<a href="https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/" target="_blank">WHO</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/" target="_blank">Who (SARS)</a>, <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/" target="_blank">NHS.uk</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" target="_blank">WHO (Coronavirus)</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/479810-how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-compare" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 80 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=98ef79f5_2" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 15 February 2020" with a closing date of 9 February 2020 (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200209-sitrep-20-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6f80d1b9_4" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-09T08:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:29:47.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3430, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 15 February 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 449, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1506, "question_name": "When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-09T19:33:35.980Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:35.930Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-09T08:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:29:47.246Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3431, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15 February 2020 and 31 March 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 449, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1506, "question_name": "When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-09T19:33:31.910Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:36.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-09T08:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:29:47.323Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3432, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2020 and 15 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 449, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1506, "question_name": "When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-09T19:33:23.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:46.624Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-09T08:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-28T15:29:47.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3433, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 16 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 449, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1506, "question_name": "When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-09T19:33:27.692Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:51.539Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 486, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-01-31T21:46:41.724Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 9, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "25%", "description": "<p>The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak that began in late 2019 is drawing comparisons with the 2002-03 SARS outbreak, which killed 774 people (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>, <a href=\"https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/\" target=\"_blank\">Who (SARS)</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/\" target=\"_blank\">NHS.uk</a>, <a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019\" target=\"_blank\">WHO (Coronavirus)</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/479810-how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-compare\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 80 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=98ef79f5_2\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 15 February 2020\" with a closing date of 9 February 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200209-sitrep-20-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6f80d1b9_4\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:45.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1506, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:14:49.975+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:13:54.599+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:41:52.301+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:33:55.675+00:00"}, "name": "When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 449, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 150, "published_at": "2020-01-28T17:33:25.132Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-09T19:33:36.004Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-02-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-28T10:00:45.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-28T18:00:45.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1693 |
<p>The oil & gas firm’s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CVX:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><i>This is a companion to the binomial <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1691-will-the-closing-price-of-chevron-stock-be-higher-on-5-august-2020-than-it-was-on-7-july-2020" target="_blank">#1691</a>.</i></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $83.00 but less than $91.00" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-05T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.633Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4134, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $75.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1693, "question_name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:24:21.728Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.059Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-05T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.657Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4135, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $75.00 and $83.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1693, "question_name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:24:52.553Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:21.197Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-05T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.679Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4136, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $83.00 but less than $91.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1693, "question_name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:25:24.540Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:21.271Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-05T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.702Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4137, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $91.00 and $99.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1693, "question_name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:25:29.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.346Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-05T22:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.724Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4138, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $99.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1693, "question_name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:25:37.104Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:54.433Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 394, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-16T03:34:30.235Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 20, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "26%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The oil & gas firm\u2019s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CVX:US\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? </span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><i>This is a companion to the binomial <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1691-will-the-closing-price-of-chevron-stock-be-higher-on-5-august-2020-than-it-was-on-7-july-2020\" target=\"_blank\">#1691</a>.</i></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $83.00 but less than $91.00\" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-08-05T06:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1693, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:55.928+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:08.645+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:12:56.031+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:03:34.760+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 385, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 74, "published_at": "2020-07-08T20:56:12.814Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-06T00:25:37.133Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-08-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-08T14:00:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-08T21:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2188 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using "Market Cap" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 (<a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Apple" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T20:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:19:29.772Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5768, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Alphabet (Google)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2188, "question_name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:24.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:24.867Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T20:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:19:29.796Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5769, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Amazon", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2188, "question_name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:30.202Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:30.203Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T20:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:19:29.812Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5770, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Apple", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2188, "question_name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:32.876Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:32.877Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T20:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:19:29.828Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5771, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Microsoft", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2188, "question_name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:35.461Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:35.462Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-30T20:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:19:29.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5772, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another company", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2188, "question_name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:27.619Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:27.620Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 360, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-27T05:21:21.450Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 216, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "6%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using \"Market Cap\" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 (<a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Apple\" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-30T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2188, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 341, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 89, "published_at": "2021-11-12T15:00:28.270Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T20:43:35.470Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2211 |
<p>The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/uk-scientific-advisers-brace-confirmed-omicron-covid-cases" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59453744" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf" target="_blank">UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing</a>). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-26-november-2021" target="_blank">Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021</a>). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 30 December 2021" with a closing date of 23 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-23T23:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-03T15:13:14.498Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5882, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 30 December 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 333, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2211, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:28.051Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:28.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-23T23:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-03T15:13:14.522Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5883, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 333, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2211, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:38.377Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:38.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-23T23:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-03T15:13:14.538Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5884, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 333, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2211, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:30.617Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:30.618Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-23T23:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-03T15:13:14.554Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5885, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 333, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2211, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:33.204Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:33.205Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-23T23:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-03T15:13:14.571Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5886, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 24 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 333, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2211, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:35.937Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:35.938Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 512, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-13T17:12:30.774Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "\r\n <p>The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/uk-scientific-advisers-brace-confirmed-omicron-covid-cases\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59453744\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing</a>). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (<a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-26-november-2021\" target=\"_blank\">Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021</a>). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 30 December 2021\" with a closing date of 23 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-03-24T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2211, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 333, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2021-12-03T15:50:59.171Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-04T16:15:38.384Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-23T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2652 |
<p>The CLB is an NGO that, among other things, tracks worker incidents in the People's Republic of China (<a href="https://clb.org.hk/" target="_blank">CLB</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CLB in its Strike Map (<a href="https://maps.clb.org.hk/" target="_blank">CLB - Strike Map</a>). To download the data, select the relevant ranges for "Date," and "All" for location and industry. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 June 2023. CLB reported 530 worker actions between 1 December 2021 and 31 May 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 500 but fewer than 700" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.808Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7541, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 300", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.447Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.448Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.819Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7542, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 300 and 500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:06.664Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:06.665Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.830Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7543, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 500 but fewer than 700", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.823Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.824Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.839Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7544, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700 and 900, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:08.197Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:08.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.849Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7545, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 900 but fewer than 1,100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:06.272Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:06.273Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:05.764Z", "created_at": "2022-12-01T22:30:01.859Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7546, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1,100 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 17, "predictions_count": 60, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2652, "question_name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.064Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:07.065Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 68, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-27T12:14:23.293Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 66, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "64%", "description": "\r\n <p>The CLB is an NGO that, among other things, tracks worker incidents in the People's Republic of China (<a href=\"https://clb.org.hk/\" target=\"_blank\">CLB</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CLB in its Strike Map (<a href=\"https://maps.clb.org.hk/\" target=\"_blank\">CLB - Strike Map</a>). To download the data, select the relevant ranges for \"Date,\" and \"All\" for location and industry. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 June 2023. CLB reported 530 worker actions between 1 December 2021 and 31 May 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 500 but fewer than 700\" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-06-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2652, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 60, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 17, "published_at": "2022-12-02T16:06:07.959Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-14T20:45:08.204Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-12-02T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-12-02T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1705 |
<p>While the National League for Democracy is expected to again win by a wide margin, the impact the USDP might make is unknown (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/myanmar-sets-november-8-date-general-election-200702033020917.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/tags/election-2020" target="_blank">Myanmar Times</a>). The USDP won 41 total seats in Myanmar's bicameral Assembly of the Union in the 2015 election, 11 seats in the House of Nationalities and 30 seats in the House of Representatives (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35770535" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The election is scheduled for 8 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 October 2020</span>: At this time, we do not consider the 16 October 2020 announcement from Myanmar's Union Election Commission to have rendered the planned election void for the purposes of this question (<a href="https://uec.gov.mm/news_preview_detail.php?action=news_detail1&news_id=FJZvznbDhnx8T8tipKlleX%2Bk4gmYGf9miNufoYTq3Co%3D" target="_blank">Union Electoral Commission</a> [in Burmese]). The question will remain open as is.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-08T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-17T15:47:38.524Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4178, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 147, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1705, "question_name": "Will the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) win more total Assembly seats in Myanmar's 2020 election than it did in the 2015 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T20:52:54.642Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.301Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-08T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-17T15:47:38.547Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4179, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 147, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1705, "question_name": "Will the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) win more total Assembly seats in Myanmar's 2020 election than it did in the 2015 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T20:52:59.793Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.373Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-08T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-17T15:47:38.566Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4180, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No election will be held in 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 147, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1705, "question_name": "Will the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) win more total Assembly seats in Myanmar's 2020 election than it did in the 2015 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T20:52:57.148Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.472Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 151, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>While the National League for Democracy is expected to again win by a wide margin, the impact the USDP might make is unknown (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/myanmar-sets-november-8-date-general-election-200702033020917.html\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.mmtimes.com/tags/election-2020\" target=\"_blank\">Myanmar Times</a>). The USDP won 41 total seats in Myanmar's bicameral Assembly of the Union in the 2015 election, 11 seats in the House of Nationalities and 30 seats in the House of Representatives (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35770535\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The election is scheduled for 8 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? </span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 19 October 2020</span>: At this time, we do not consider the 16 October 2020 announcement from Myanmar's Union Election Commission to have rendered the planned election void for the purposes of this question (<a href=\"https://uec.gov.mm/news_preview_detail.php?action=news_detail1&news_id=FJZvznbDhnx8T8tipKlleX%2Bk4gmYGf9miNufoYTq3Co%3D\" target=\"_blank\">Union Electoral Commission</a> [in Burmese]). The question will remain open as is.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 8 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-01T08:01:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1705, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:10.357+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:55.511+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:50:58.265+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:48:31.508+00:00"}, "name": "Will the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) win more total Assembly seats in Myanmar's 2020 election than it did in the 2015 election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 147, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2020-07-17T16:58:26.661Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-16T20:52:59.874Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-17T10:00:09.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-17T17:00:09.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3099 |
<p>Average gas prices nationwide fell in October 2023 despite the outbreak of violence in the Middle East, but concerns over energy supplies remain (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/gas-prices-down-israel-hamas-war/71374004007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). The question will be suspended on 21 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 22 November 2023 (<a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA</a>, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $3.18 but less than $3.33" with a closing date of 22 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9443, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $3.03", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:18:01.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:18:01.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9444, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.03 and $3.18, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:47.950Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:47.951Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.482Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9445, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.18 but less than $3.33", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:50.123Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:50.124Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.489Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9446, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.33 and $3.48, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:56.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:56.976Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.496Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9447, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.48 but less than $3.63", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:52.543Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:52.544Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.503Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9448, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.63 and $3.78, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:59.191Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:59.192Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-22T10:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T16:12:13.510Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9449, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.78", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3099, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:54.753Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T14:17:54.754Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 340, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-17T13:12:33.603Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "64%", "description": "\r\n <p>Average gas prices nationwide fell in October 2023 despite the outbreak of violence in the Middle East, but concerns over energy supplies remain (<a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/gas-prices-down-israel-hamas-war/71374004007/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>). The question will be suspended on 21 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 22 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://gasprices.aaa.com/\" target=\"_blank\">AAA</a>, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $3.18 but less than $3.33\" with a closing date of 22 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-22T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3099, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 338, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 121, "published_at": "2023-11-07T22:37:42.451Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T14:18:01.513Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-22T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-08T02:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-08T10:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.803Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1724 |
<p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/" target="_blank">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:44:49.184Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4229, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 287, "predictions_count": 970, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1724, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Texas?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:52:43.514Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.812Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:44:49.203Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4230, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 287, "predictions_count": 970, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1724, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Texas?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:52:56.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.868Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:44:49.223Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4231, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 287, "predictions_count": 970, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1724, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Texas?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:53:05.776Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.914Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1009, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-04T22:03:53.680Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 91, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href=\"https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1724, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:51.897+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:32.418+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:41:21.256+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:29:33.037+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Texas?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 970, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 287, "published_at": "2020-08-04T16:57:17.898Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T20:53:05.800Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-04T10:00:23.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-04T17:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1712 |
<p>The FA Cup, a soccer/football final scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK, is "the most famous domestic cup competition in the world" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53420073" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.thefa.com/competitions/thefacup/" target="_blank">The FA</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ </a>or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Arsenal F.C." with a closing date of 1 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T20:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T20:35:57.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4196, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Arsenal F.C.", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1712, "question_name": "Which team will win the FA Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T20:19:22.247Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:23.298Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-01T20:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-24T20:35:57.074Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4197, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Chelsea F.C.", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1712, "question_name": "Which team will win the FA Cup?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T20:19:19.682Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:11:23.335Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 125, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The FA Cup, a soccer/football final scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK, is \"the most famous domestic cup competition in the world\" (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53420073\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://www.thefa.com/competitions/thefacup/\" target=\"_blank\">The FA</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ </a>or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Arsenal F.C.\" with a closing date of 1 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>", "ends_at": "2020-08-01T06:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1712, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:26.532+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:12.698+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T14:05:40.565+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T14:04:30.039+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the FA Cup?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 118, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 92, "published_at": "2020-07-24T21:00:19.124Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-01T20:19:22.271Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-07-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-24T14:00:19.124-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-24T21:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1403 | <p>The 2020 Taiwan presidential election is scheduled for 11 January 2020 (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17347/edition2020taiwans-presidential-turnaround" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://international.thenewslens.com/interactive/125385" target="_blank">The News Lens</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/10ea246e65b94dbd9cc8fe9c6048545e" target="_blank">AP</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Tsai Ing-wen" with a closing date of 11 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-11T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-22T15:35:02.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3115, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tsai Ing-wen", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 128, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1403, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-11T22:07:27.502Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:48.606Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-11T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-22T15:35:02.605Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3116, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Han Kuo-yu", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 128, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1403, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-11T22:07:25.620Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:48.759Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-11T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-22T15:35:02.621Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3117, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "James Soong", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 128, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1403, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-11T22:07:23.665Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:48.909Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-11T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2019-11-22T15:35:02.638Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3118, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 128, "predictions_count": 226, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1403, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-11T22:07:21.776Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:49.084Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-11-22T22:01:26.417Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 49, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The 2020 Taiwan presidential election is scheduled for 11 January 2020 (<a href=\"https://worldin.economist.com/article/17347/edition2020taiwans-presidential-turnaround\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://international.thenewslens.com/interactive/125385\" target=\"_blank\">The News Lens</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/10ea246e65b94dbd9cc8fe9c6048545e\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;\">Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Tsai Ing-wen\" with a closing date of 11 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-11T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1403, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:09:50.095+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:09:17.154+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:18:48.880+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:14:07.479+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 226, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 128, "published_at": "2019-11-22T16:05:53.597Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-11T22:07:27.511Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-01-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-11-22T10:00:13.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-11-22T18:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.092Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1681 |
<p>As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided in the chart “How is My State Doing on Key Measures?” under "COVID+ RATE IS" found at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Note 11 August 2020</span>: This question is only concerned with U.S. states. Nonstate jurisdictions (e.g., DC, Puerto Rico) will not count toward resolution.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 11 and 15" with a closing date of 1 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-01T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:45:56.017Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4103, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1007, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1681, "question_name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:23.146Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.731Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-01T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:45:56.041Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4104, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6 and 10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1007, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1681, "question_name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:40.326Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.807Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-01T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:45:56.065Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4105, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 11 and 15", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1007, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1681, "question_name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:49.084Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.883Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-01T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:45:56.089Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4106, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 and 20", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1007, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1681, "question_name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:31.903Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.978Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-01T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:45:56.113Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4107, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "21 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1007, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1681, "question_name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:57.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:52.068Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1037, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-24T06:55:10.243Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 40, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "34%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (<a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided in the chart \u201cHow is My State Doing on Key Measures?\u201d under \"COVID+ RATE IS\" found at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">Note 11 August 2020</span>: This question is only concerned with U.S. states. Nonstate jurisdictions (e.g., DC, Puerto Rico) will not count toward resolution.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 11 and 15\" with a closing date of 1 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>", "ends_at": "2020-09-01T07:01:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1681, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:42.906+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:22.788+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T19:06:52.451+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:54:19.848+00:00"}, "name": "On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1007, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 265, "published_at": "2020-07-02T21:57:10.728Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-10T16:30:57.081Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-09-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-02T15:00:37.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-02T22:00:37.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2906 |
<p>Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post "zero COVID" (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-30/chinas-factory-activity-falls-faster-than-expected-on-weak-demand-pmi" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - PMI</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-30T01:30:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T14:07:07.513Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8614, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 46.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 145, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2906, "question_name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:22.178Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:22.178Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-30T01:30:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T14:07:07.523Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8615, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 145, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2906, "question_name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:19.258Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:19.259Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-30T01:30:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T14:07:07.530Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8616, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 145, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2906, "question_name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:12.739Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:12.740Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-30T01:30:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T14:07:07.538Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8617, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 145, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2906, "question_name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:10.150Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:10.150Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-30T01:30:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-09T14:07:07.547Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8618, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 52.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 145, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2906, "question_name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:15.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:15.882Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 149, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post \"zero COVID\" (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-30/chinas-factory-activity-falls-faster-than-expected-on-weak-demand-pmi\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia - PMI</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive\" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-09-29T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2906, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 145, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 45, "published_at": "2023-06-09T15:36:01.976Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-30T14:42:22.193Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-09T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-09T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1592 |
<p>COVID-19 testing constraints in the United States have been a crucial factor in the response to the outbreak (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-testing-us.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/shortage-crucial-chemicals-us-coronavirus-testing/" target="_blank">Stat News</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/us-coronavirus-death-count-cdc-explainer/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). This question will be resolved based on total tests data reported for a date as of the following day at 4:00PM ET by The COVID Tracking Project for "US Daily Cumulative Totals" (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily" target="_blank">COVID Tracking Project</a>). As of 8 April 2020, 2,197,743 COVID-19 total tests had been conducted in the United States.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 May and 31 May 2020" with a closing date of 27 May 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-27T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T14:01:30.704Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3801, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 834, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1592, "question_name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:48.913Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.879Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-27T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T14:01:30.799Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3802, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 May and 31 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 834, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1592, "question_name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:42.743Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.045Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-27T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T14:01:30.892Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3803, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 June and 30 June 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 834, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1592, "question_name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:36.753Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.169Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-27T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T14:01:30.962Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3804, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 834, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1592, "question_name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:30.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.325Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-27T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T14:01:31.036Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3805, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 August 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 227, "predictions_count": 834, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1592, "question_name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:23.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:26.459Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 856, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-05-10T01:21:37.490Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "62%", "description": "\r\n <p>COVID-19 testing constraints in the United States have been a crucial factor in the response to the outbreak (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-testing-us.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/shortage-crucial-chemicals-us-coronavirus-testing/\" target=\"_blank\">Stat News</a>, <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/us-coronavirus-death-count-cdc-explainer/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). This question will be resolved based on total tests data reported for a date as of the following day at 4:00PM ET by The COVID Tracking Project for \"US Daily Cumulative Totals\" (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily\" target=\"_blank\">COVID Tracking Project</a>). As of 8 April 2020, 2,197,743 COVID-19 total tests had been conducted in the United States.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 May and 31 May 2020\" with a closing date of 27 May 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-08-01T06:59:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1592, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:35.438+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:39.777+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:37:10.795+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:16:22.002+00:00"}, "name": "By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 834, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 227, "published_at": "2020-04-10T16:48:33.570Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-28T23:42:48.933Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-10T10:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3032 |
<p>As of 28 September, North Korea had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178961618/north-korea-rocket-launch-military-satellite-south-korea" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-rocket-launch-satellite-d9d686ca04466c3069ed2f07b2cd70d1" target="_blank">AP</a>). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (<a href="https://www.38north.org/2022/03/a-north-korean-satellite-launch-what-to-watch-for/" target="_blank">38 North</a>). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 21 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-21T16:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:49:20.209Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9186, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3032, "question_name": "When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:55.132Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:55.133Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-21T16:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:49:20.224Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9187, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3032, "question_name": "When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:53.873Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:53.874Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-21T16:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:49:20.231Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9188, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3032, "question_name": "When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:54.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:54.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-21T16:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:49:20.237Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9189, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 July 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3032, "question_name": "When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:55.776Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:55.777Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 111, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-20T23:21:59.020Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "\r\n <p>As of 28 September, North Korea had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178961618/north-korea-rocket-launch-military-satellite-south-korea\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-rocket-launch-satellite-d9d686ca04466c3069ed2f07b2cd70d1\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (<a href=\"https://www.38north.org/2022/03/a-north-korean-satellite-launch-what-to-watch-for/\" target=\"_blank\">38 North</a>). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 1 January 2024\" with a closing date of 21 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3032, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 107, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2023-09-29T15:50:36.682Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-22T18:07:55.783Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-21T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.688Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898 | <p>
<p>Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL (<a href="https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl" target="_blank">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p></p>
</p><p>The question closed "The NFC Champion" with a closing date of 7 February 2021.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10px;">how we resolve questions </span></a><span style="font-size: 10px;">and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10px;">how scores are calculated</span></a><span style="font-size: 10px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-08T03:19:22.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:49:13.820Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4732, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The AFC Champion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 137, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1898, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:22.183Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:22.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-08T03:19:22.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:49:13.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4733, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The NFC Champion", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 137, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1898, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:25.583Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:25.591Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-02-08T03:19:22.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:49:13.881Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4734, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No Super Bowl will be played before 8 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 137, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1898, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:18.688Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:18.697Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 309, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-08T02:59:10.016Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "<p>\r\n \r\n <p>Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL (<a href=\"https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl\" target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p></p>\r\n </p><p>The question closed \"The NFC Champion\" with a closing date of 7 February 2021.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">how we resolve questions </span></a><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">how scores are calculated</span></a><span style=\"font-size: 10px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n</p>", "ends_at": "2021-03-08T08:01:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1898, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:52.117+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:09.168+00:00"}, "name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 291, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 137, "published_at": "2021-01-08T15:12:51.025Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-02-08T13:43:25.609Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-02-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-08T10:00:52.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-08T18:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1413 |
<p>The Internet messaging service Telegraph delayed plans to launch a digital currency, Gram, from October 2019 to April 2020 (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17507/edition2020crucial-year-ahead-cryptocurrencies" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/gram-investors-agree-to-delay-ton-launch-till-april/" target="_blank">Finance Magnates</a>, <a href="https://cryptonews.com/news/telegram-to-postpone-gram-release-by-at-least-six-months-4865.htm" target="_blank">Crypto News</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/technology/telegram-cryptocurrency-gram.html)." target="_blank">NY Times</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 October 2020" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T13:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-06T14:45:26.923Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3150, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 642, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1413, "question_name": "When will Telegram\u2019s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T13:36:48.505Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:52.964Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T13:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-06T14:45:26.947Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3151, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 642, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1413, "question_name": "When will Telegram\u2019s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T13:37:23.481Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:53.063Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T13:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-06T14:45:26.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3152, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 642, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1413, "question_name": "When will Telegram\u2019s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T13:35:57.207Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:08:53.176Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 648, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-12-07T01:52:08.202Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 300, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Internet messaging service Telegraph delayed plans to launch a digital currency, Gram, from October 2019 to April 2020 (<a href=\"https://worldin.economist.com/article/17507/edition2020crucial-year-ahead-cryptocurrencies\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/gram-investors-agree-to-delay-ton-launch-till-april/\" target=\"_blank\">Finance Magnates</a>, <a href=\"https://cryptonews.com/news/telegram-to-postpone-gram-release-by-at-least-six-months-4865.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Crypto News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/technology/telegram-cryptocurrency-gram.html).\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).<br></p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 October 2020\" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-10-01T07:01:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1413, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:51.859+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:09:49.757+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:48:23.192+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:39:04.857+00:00"}, "name": "When will Telegram\u2019s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 642, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 305, "published_at": "2019-12-06T14:45:27.020Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-01T13:37:23.564Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-06T10:00:14.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-06T18:00:14.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.092Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1561 |
<p>On 11 March 2020, the National Basketball Association (NBA) announced that it was suspending game play "until further notice" after a player tested positive for COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/article/2020/03/11/coronavirus-pandemic-causes-nba-suspend-season" target="_blank">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28887560/nba-suspends-season-further-notice-player-tests-positive-coronavirus" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). Whether the next NBA game is played before spectators is immaterial. An exhibition game would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 July 2020" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:49:50.077Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3662, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 April 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 410, "predictions_count": 916, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1561, "question_name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:21:47.589Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:17.862Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:49:50.126Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3663, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 410, "predictions_count": 916, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1561, "question_name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:22:12.868Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:12.826Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:49:50.170Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3664, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 410, "predictions_count": 916, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1561, "question_name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:22:00.476Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.010Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:49:50.220Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3665, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 410, "predictions_count": 916, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1561, "question_name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:22:51.195Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.179Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:49:50.279Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3666, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 410, "predictions_count": 916, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1561, "question_name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:22:26.992Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.486Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 920, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-16T00:39:47.995Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 107, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 11 March 2020, the National Basketball Association (NBA) announced that it was suspending game play \"until further notice\" after a player tested positive for COVID-19 (<a href=\"https://www.nba.com/article/2020/03/11/coronavirus-pandemic-causes-nba-suspend-season\" target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>, <a href=\"https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28887560/nba-suspends-season-further-notice-player-tests-positive-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). Whether the next NBA game is played before spectators is immaterial. An exhibition game would not count.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 July 2020\" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-07-01T06:59:41.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1561, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:29.217+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:44.799+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:29:17.058+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:02:37.909+00:00"}, "name": "When will an NBA game next be played?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 916, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 410, "published_at": "2020-03-13T16:54:55.895Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-01T22:22:51.214Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-13T10:00:41.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-13T17:00:41.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2991 |
<p>MLS is the top soccer (football) league in the US and Canada (<a href="https://www.mlssoccer.com/about/" target="_blank">MLS Soccer - About</a>). The MLS Cup final is scheduled for 9 December 2023 (<a href="https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/major-league-soccer-announces-audi-2023-mls-cup-playoffs-format-and-schedule" target="_blank">MLS Soccer</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Another team" with a closing date of 9 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.799Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9013, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "FC Cincinnati", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:32.807Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:32.807Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.814Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9014, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Inter Miami CF", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:32.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:32.070Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.822Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9015, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles FC", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:31.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:31.174Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.829Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9016, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New England Revolution", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:30.355Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:30.356Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.836Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9017, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Philadelphia Union", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:35.152Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:35.153Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9018, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "St. Louis City SC", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:33.561Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:33.561Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.850Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9019, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Seattle Sounders FC", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:34.313Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:34.314Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-09T23:05:19.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-24T20:21:15.856Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9020, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 33, "predictions_count": 134, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2991, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:29.580Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:29.580Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 135, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>MLS is the top soccer (football) league in the US and Canada (<a href=\"https://www.mlssoccer.com/about/\" target=\"_blank\">MLS Soccer - About</a>). The MLS Cup final is scheduled for 9 December 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/major-league-soccer-announces-audi-2023-mls-cup-playoffs-format-and-schedule\" target=\"_blank\">MLS Soccer</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Another team\" with a closing date of 9 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2991, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 134, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 33, "published_at": "2023-08-25T14:51:39.548Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-10T17:35:35.159Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-25T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-25T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848 |
<p>Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html" target="_blank">Vietnam Times</a>). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 26 January 2021</span>: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021."<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:09:36.472Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4598, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ng\u00e2n", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1848, "question_name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:09:59.460Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-01T18:09:59.461Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:09:36.506Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4599, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1848, "question_name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:11:04.075Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-01T18:11:04.078Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:09:36.531Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4600, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tr\u1ea7n Qu\u1ed1c V\u01b0\u1ee3ng", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1848, "question_name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:08:46.533Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-01T18:08:46.535Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:09:36.555Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4601, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1848, "question_name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:12:32.909Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-01T18:12:32.913Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-25T21:09:36.582Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4602, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1848, "question_name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:07:39.607Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-01T18:07:39.610Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 303, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-07T16:56:12.112Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "77%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html\" target=\"_blank\">Vietnam Times</a>). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/\" target=\"_blank\">Diplomat</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 26 January 2021</span>: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close \"A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021.\"<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021\" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-03-01T08:01:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1848, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:23.487+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:22.329+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T01:57:28.163+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T01:56:28.876+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 298, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2020-11-27T16:36:49.715Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-01T18:12:33.385Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-27T10:00:30.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-27T18:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.177Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928 |
<p>Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/" target="_blank">SpaceNews</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/" target="_blank">SpaceNews</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 April 2021</span>: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 May 2021</span>: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a "space tourist flight."</p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 June 2021</span>: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.</p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 26 July 2021</span>: Flights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, only SpaceX" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:23:38.738Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4821, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1928, "question_name": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T23:26:15.552Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T23:26:15.553Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:23:38.776Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4822, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1928, "question_name": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T23:26:53.405Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T23:26:53.406Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:23:38.810Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4823, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1928, "question_name": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T23:27:28.604Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T23:27:28.605Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-05T15:23:38.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4824, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 174, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1928, "question_name": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T23:28:04.121Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T23:28:04.122Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 714, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-16T04:28:02.981Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 170, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "48%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceNews</a>). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceNews</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 5 April 2021</span>: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.</p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 5 May 2021</span>: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a \"space tourist flight.\"</p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 7 June 2021</span>: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.</p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 26 July 2021</span>: Flights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, only SpaceX\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:53.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1928, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:17.962+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:05.102+00:00"}, "name": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 652, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 174, "published_at": "2021-02-05T17:49:14.193Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T23:28:04.155Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-05T10:00:53.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-05T18:00:53.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2879 |
<p>Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted a "slightly below-average" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2023 (<a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/3948977-2023-hurricane-season-predictions-released/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf" target="_blank">Colorado State University</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2023 (<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center - Reports</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 7 and 9" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.093Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8492, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:34:46.400Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:34:46.400Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.110Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8493, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4 and 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:43.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:43.814Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.121Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8494, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7 and 9", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:25.235Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:25.236Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.127Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8495, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10 and 12", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:36:02.214Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:36:02.215Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.134Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8496, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13 and 15", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:09.250Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:35:09.250Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-01T15:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-12T13:47:05.141Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8497, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "16 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 798, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2879, "question_name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:36:20.739Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:36:20.739Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 844, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-13T01:22:53.319Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 203, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted a \"slightly below-average\" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/3948977-2023-hurricane-season-predictions-released/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Colorado State University</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc\" target=\"_blank\">National Hurricane Center</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/\" target=\"_blank\">National Hurricane Center - Reports</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 7 and 9\" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2879, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 798, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 85, "published_at": "2023-05-12T14:09:10.726Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-01T15:36:20.771Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-05-12T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-05-12T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1591 |
<p>The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the latest Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report as of 15 May 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO Situation Reports</a>). As of 9 April 2020, WHO reported 2,659 confirmed cases for the United Arab Emirates (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200407-sitrep-78-covid-19.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases" with a closing date of 15 May 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T13:50:18.564Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3796, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 430, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1591, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:59.641Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.182Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T13:50:18.597Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3797, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 430, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1591, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:52.036Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.286Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T13:50:18.632Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3798, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 430, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1591, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:46.998Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.429Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T13:50:18.670Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3799, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 25,000 and 50,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 430, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1591, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:40.973Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.613Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-16T06:59:07.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-10T13:50:18.703Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3800, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 50,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 430, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1591, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:34.516Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.745Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 432, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-10T22:02:40.184Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the latest Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report as of 15 May 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO Situation Reports</a>). As of 9 April 2020, WHO reported 2,659 confirmed cases for the United Arab Emirates (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200407-sitrep-78-covid-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases\" with a closing date of 15 May 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-05-15T06:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1591, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:22:27.661+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:31.189+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:36:22.022+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:26:19.815+00:00"}, "name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 430, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 147, "published_at": "2020-04-10T16:49:34.107Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-16T15:28:59.669Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-10T10:00:39.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-10T17:00:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2805 |
<p>Lower demand due to a slowing economy and the fallout from bank failures are expected to depress gasoline prices in the near term (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/25/energy/us-gas-prices-one-year-after-invasion/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.wane.com/top-stories/banking-sector-fallout-to-play-role-in-gas-prices-says-gasbuddy/" target="_blank">WANE</a>). The question will be suspended on 14 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 15 May 2023 (<a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA</a>, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive" with a closing date of 15 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.681Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8093, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $2.70", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:28.276Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:28.277Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.697Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8094, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $2.70 and $3.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:29.956Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:29.956Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8095, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.00 but less than $3.30", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:21.466Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:21.467Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.725Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8096, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:31.664Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:31.665Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.741Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8097, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.60 but less than $3.90", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:33.307Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:33.308Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.757Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8098, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.90 and $4.20, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:23.075Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:23.076Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.773Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8099, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $4.20 but less than $4.50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:24.679Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:24.680Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-21T20:35:50.789Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8100, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$4.50 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2805, "question_name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:26.333Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:26.334Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 276, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-03T13:06:23.699Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "79%", "description": "\r\n <p>Lower demand due to a slowing economy and the fallout from bank failures are expected to depress gasoline prices in the near term (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/25/energy/us-gas-prices-one-year-after-invasion/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wane.com/top-stories/banking-sector-fallout-to-play-role-in-gas-prices-says-gasbuddy/\" target=\"_blank\">WANE</a>). The question will be suspended on 14 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 15 May 2023 (<a href=\"https://gasprices.aaa.com/\" target=\"_blank\">AAA</a>, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive\" with a closing date of 15 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-14T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2805, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 274, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2023-03-22T13:39:53.777Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-15T13:45:33.315Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1845 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using "NFL Stat Leaders 2020" data as reported by ESPN (<a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/offense/season/2020/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/netYardsPerGame/dir/desc" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). In the event of a tie, the team that scored the most points per game (PTS/G) will be considered to have averaged the most yards per game, followed by team record.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Kansas City Chiefs" with a closing date of 3 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-04T03:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:58:42.105Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4587, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Arizona Cardinals", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1845, "question_name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:31.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:31.884Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-04T03:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:58:42.129Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4588, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1845, "question_name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:34.139Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:34.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-04T03:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:58:42.152Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4589, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1845, "question_name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:37.985Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:37.986Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-04T03:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:58:42.176Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4590, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Seattle Seahawks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1845, "question_name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:36.055Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:36.057Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-04T03:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:58:42.199Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4591, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1845, "question_name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:29.629Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:29.631Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 198, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-11-28T11:56:45.385Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 36, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "23%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using \"NFL Stat Leaders 2020\" data as reported by ESPN (<a href=\"https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/offense/season/2020/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/netYardsPerGame/dir/desc\" target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). In the event of a tie, the team that scored the most points per game (PTS/G) will be considered to have averaged the most yards per game, followed by team record.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Kansas City Chiefs\" with a closing date of 3 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-03T08:01:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1845, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:49.126+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:15.821+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T01:57:51.108+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T01:56:28.860+00:00"}, "name": "Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 188, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2020-11-17T17:42:12.215Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:06:37.995Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-01-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-17T10:00:47.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-17T18:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3097 |
<p>As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/03/blinken-netanyahu-israel-hamas-gaza-ceasfire-hostages" target="_blank">Axios</a>). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 November 2023</span>: The question is concerned with a ceasefire, that being a cessation of all hostilities. Any change in the status of the conflict that includes a cessation of all hostilities, the exact language used by the parties notwithstanding, would count so long as all elements of the question are fulfilled.</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023" with a closing date of 23 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-24T05:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:29.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9436, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 14 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3097, "question_name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:02.783Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:02.784Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-24T05:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:30.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9437, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3097, "question_name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:49:59.292Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-24T15:49:59.292Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-24T05:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:30.018Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9438, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 28 November 2023 and 11 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3097, "question_name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:00.996Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:00.996Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-24T05:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:30.026Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9439, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 December 2023 and 25 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3097, "question_name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:06.463Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:06.463Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-24T05:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:30.034Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9440, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 26 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3097, "question_name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:04.510Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:04.511Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 307, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-21T14:00:50.641Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "88%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (<a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/03/blinken-netanyahu-israel-hamas-gaza-ceasfire-hostages\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 19 November 2023</span>: The question is concerned with a ceasefire, that being a cessation of all hostilities. Any change in the status of the conflict that includes a cessation of all hostilities, the exact language used by the parties notwithstanding, would count so long as all elements of the question are fulfilled.</p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023\" with a closing date of 23 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-26T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3097, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 296, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 101, "published_at": "2023-11-07T15:04:30.108Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-24T15:50:06.469Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-23T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-07T07:04:30.108-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-07T15:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.718Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2044 |
<p>Rising global food prices are a growing concern (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/3/global-food-prices-surge-again-stoking-inflation-fears" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDM" target="_blank">FRED</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:28:16.332Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5284, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than $220.00/MT", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 568, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2044, "question_name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:24.430Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:24.431Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:28:16.357Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5285, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 568, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2044, "question_name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:28.989Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:28.990Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:28:16.381Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5286, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 568, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2044, "question_name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:33.632Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:33.633Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:28:16.406Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5287, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 568, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2044, "question_name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:42.629Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:42.630Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:28:16.430Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5288, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than $340.00/MT", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 568, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2044, "question_name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:38.123Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:38.123Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 630, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-23T20:47:05.505Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 8, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "\r\n <p>Rising global food prices are a growing concern (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/3/global-food-prices-surge-again-stoking-inflation-fears\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDM\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-01T08:01:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2044, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:54.388+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:18.629+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 568, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2021-06-17T21:54:49.856Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T21:02:42.640Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:36.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-17T22:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2262 |
<p>With Justice Breyer's retirement announcement, President Biden has begun a search to find his replacement (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/26/potential-names-biden-supreme-court-shortlist-00002455" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-biden-candidates/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10455771/Bidens-list-potential-SCOTUS-picks-expands-12-candidates.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/Letter_to_President_January-27-2022.pdf" target="_blank">US Supreme Court</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Ketanji Brown Jackson" with a closing date of 25 February 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.335Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6033, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "J. Michelle Childs", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:02.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:02.993Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.358Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6034, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Anita Earls", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:07.401Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:07.401Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.375Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6035, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ketanji Brown Jackson", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:08.716Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:08.716Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.390Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6036, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Candace Jackson-Akiwumi", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:09.837Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:09.838Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.406Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6037, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Leondra Kruger", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:10.930Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:10.931Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.423Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6038, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Melissa Murray", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:12.062Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:12.063Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.439Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6039, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Wilhelmina Wright", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:04.185Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:04.185Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.455Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6040, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:05.239Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:05.240Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-02-25T16:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.470Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6041, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Biden will not announce a choice before 1 July 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 141, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2262, "question_name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:06.322Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:06.323Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 145, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-02-11T18:06:16.772Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 14, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>With Justice Breyer's retirement announcement, President Biden has begun a search to find his replacement (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/26/potential-names-biden-supreme-court-shortlist-00002455\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-biden-candidates/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10455771/Bidens-list-potential-SCOTUS-picks-expands-12-candidates.html\" target=\"_blank\">Daily Mail</a>, <a href=\"https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/Letter_to_President_January-27-2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">US Supreme Court</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Ketanji Brown Jackson\" with a closing date of 25 February 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2262, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 141, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2022-02-11T14:54:18.601Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-02-25T16:55:12.077Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-11T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-11T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1598 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 29 June 2020. The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 30 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>). As of 16 April 2020, WHO reported 98,480 total confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200416-sitrep-87-covid-19.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-17T13:57:27.347Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3823, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 180,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1350, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1598, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:50:12.691Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:29.792Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-17T13:57:27.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3824, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 180,000 and 260,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1350, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1598, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:49:58.789Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:29.950Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-17T13:57:27.458Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3825, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1350, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1598, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:49:45.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:30.112Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-17T13:57:27.504Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3826, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 340,000 and 420,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1350, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1598, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:49:30.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:30.361Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-17T13:57:27.561Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3827, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 420,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 340, "predictions_count": 1350, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1598, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:49:17.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:30.555Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1366, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-05-26T23:05:17.287Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 29 June 2020. The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 30 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). As of 16 April 2020, WHO reported 98,480 total confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200416-sitrep-87-covid-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases\" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-30T06:59:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1598, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:58.026+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:51.089+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:51:26.284+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:13:23.638+00:00"}, "name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1350, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 340, "published_at": "2020-04-17T17:12:17.775Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-02T13:50:12.711Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-17T10:12:17.775-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-17T17:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2194 |
<p>Mercedes and Red Bull Racing-Honda have, as of the launch of this question, 478.5 and 477.5 points, respectively, in the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Champions standings, with only a four races remaining (<a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2021/team.html" target="_blank">Formula1.com</a>, <a href="https://www.skysports.com/f1" target="_blank">Sky Sports</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2021, the day before the final race in the season, and the outcome determined once official awards are given at the FIA Prize Giving Ceremony.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Mercedes" with a closing date of 12 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-12T11:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T22:24:31.379Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5800, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Mercedes", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2194, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:18.410Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:18.411Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-12T11:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T22:24:31.395Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5801, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Red Bull Racing-Honda", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2194, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:19.305Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:19.306Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-12T11:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T22:24:31.410Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5802, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another result", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2194, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:20.187Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:20.188Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 140, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-14T19:36:53.617Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 28, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "\r\n <p>Mercedes and Red Bull Racing-Honda have, as of the launch of this question, 478.5 and 477.5 points, respectively, in the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Champions standings, with only a four races remaining (<a href=\"https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2021/team.html\" target=\"_blank\">Formula1.com</a>, <a href=\"https://www.skysports.com/f1\" target=\"_blank\">Sky Sports</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2021, the day before the final race in the season, and the outcome determined once official awards are given at the FIA Prize Giving Ceremony.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Mercedes\" with a closing date of 12 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-12T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2194, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 130, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2021-11-12T22:35:49.350Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-17T22:34:20.194Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-12T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T15:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T23:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2202 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin" target="_blank">Coindesk</a>.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than $30,000.00" with a closing date of 30 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.661Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5838, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Less than $30,000.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:12:46.644Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:12:46.645Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.683Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5839, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:15:32.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:15:32.490Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.699Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5840, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:14:12.094Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:14:12.095Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.715Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5841, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:11:14.914Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:11:14.914Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.730Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5842, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:09:36.106Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:09:36.107Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T15:06:20.675Z", "created_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.746Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5843, "membership_id": 22, "name": "$110,000.00 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 234, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2202, "question_name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:08:01.560Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T15:08:01.561Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1446, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-21T07:23:46.791Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 162, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "56%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by <a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\">Coindesk</a>.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than $30,000.00\" with a closing date of 30 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-30T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2202, "image": null, "membership_id": 22, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:29:34.345+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:26.055+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1421, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 234, "published_at": "2021-11-23T13:53:45.855Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T15:15:32.499Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-30T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-23T05:53:45.855-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-23T13:50:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-04-03T17:54:56.648Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2694 |
<p>Youth unemployment in the PRC was a problem in 2022, with the unemployment rate for those between 16 and 24 years of age nearly hitting 20% in July 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/19/economy/china-youth-jobs-crisis-xi-jinping-intl-hnk-mic/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-like-i-ve-been-abandoned-by-the-world-chinese-youth-hit-by-record-unemployment" target="_blank">France 24</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (<a href="https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01" target="_blank">National Bureau of Statistics</a>). To access the data, click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators," then click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" option immediately underneath. The relevant data may be found in the row titled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)." Use the horizontal scroll bar to the right to scroll through the monthly data. In January 2022, the rate was 15.3%. Please note that your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Statistica also reports these data at the following link, but the data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics will be used for resolution (<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1244339/surveyed-monthly-youth-unemployment-rate-in-china/" target="_blank">Statistica</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "20.0% or more" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.856Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7714, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 14.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:50.345Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:50.346Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7715, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14.0% and 15.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:52.519Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:52.520Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.873Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7716, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 15.0% but less than 16.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:51.465Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:51.465Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.881Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7717, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16.0% and 17.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:58.193Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:58.193Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7718, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 17.0% but less than 18.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:53.578Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:53.579Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.897Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7719, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 18.0% and 19.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:54.609Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:54.609Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.905Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7720, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 19.0% but less than 20.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:55.788Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:55.789Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-01T14:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-05T23:09:27.912Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7721, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "20.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 163, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2694, "question_name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:57.116Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:57.117Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 163, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-28T18:47:21.986Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "81%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Youth unemployment in the PRC was a problem in 2022, with the unemployment rate for those between 16 and 24 years of age nearly hitting 20% in July 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/19/economy/china-youth-jobs-crisis-xi-jinping-intl-hnk-mic/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-like-i-ve-been-abandoned-by-the-world-chinese-youth-hit-by-record-unemployment\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (<a href=\"https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01\" target=\"_blank\">National Bureau of Statistics</a>). To access the data, click \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators,\" then click \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" option immediately underneath. The relevant data may be found in the row titled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%).\" Use the horizontal scroll bar to the right to scroll through the monthly data. In January 2022, the rate was 15.3%. Please note that your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Statistica also reports these data at the following link, but the data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics will be used for resolution (<a href=\"https://www.statista.com/statistics/1244339/surveyed-monthly-youth-unemployment-rate-in-china/\" target=\"_blank\">Statistica</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"20.0% or more\" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2694, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 163, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 51, "published_at": "2023-01-06T14:19:44.110Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-19T14:44:58.200Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-06T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-06T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2400 |
<p>An outbreak of the monkeypox disease around the world has raised concerns about a potential epidemic (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/monkeypox-outbreaks-europe-vaccine-guidance-close-contacts-uk-france-germany/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/25/us-europe-monkeypox-vaccine-demand-00034882" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, countries where monkeypox is endemic are Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON385" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Global Health for confirmed cases through and including 31 August 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2022 (<a href="https://monkeypox.healthmap.org/" target="_blank">Global Health - Monkeypox Tracker</a>, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/htmlview?pru=AAABgRWxdEc*vCVQDr4qgR2-91Sjs5B1UQ#" target="_blank">Global Health - Monkeypox Google Sheet</a>). In the event of inconsistencies between the tracker link and the Google Sheet, the data on the map link would control.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 August 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.924Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6526, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:47.174Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:47.174Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.944Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6527, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:52.394Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:52.395Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.951Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6528, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:41.979Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:41.979Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.958Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6529, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:31.495Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:31.495Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.965Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6530, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:26.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:26.016Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-31T21:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:39:07.972Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6531, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "250,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2400, "question_name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:36.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:36.847Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 969, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-30T14:57:01.907Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 62, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "35%", "description": "\r\n <p>An outbreak of the monkeypox disease around the world has raised concerns about a potential epidemic (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/monkeypox-outbreaks-europe-vaccine-guidance-close-contacts-uk-france-germany/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/25/us-europe-monkeypox-vaccine-demand-00034882\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, countries where monkeypox is endemic are Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON385\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Global Health for confirmed cases through and including 31 August 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2022 (<a href=\"https://monkeypox.healthmap.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Global Health - Monkeypox Tracker</a>, <a href=\"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/htmlview?pru=AAABgRWxdEc*vCVQDr4qgR2-91Sjs5B1UQ#\" target=\"_blank\">Global Health - Monkeypox Google Sheet</a>). In the event of inconsistencies between the tracker link and the Google Sheet, the data on the map link would control.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 31 August 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-08-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2400, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:26:34.504+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:51.738+00:00"}, "name": "As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 795, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 95, "published_at": "2022-05-27T13:45:24.270Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-01T15:14:52.403Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-05-27T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-05-27T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2257 |
<p>Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, former US Senator David Perdue, and others are battling for the Republican nomination for governor (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_gubernatorial_election,_2022_(May_24_Republican_primary)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/" target="_blank">270 to Win</a>). The primary election is scheduled for 24 May 2022, with a primary runoff set for 21 June 2022, if needed (<a href="https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/2022_State_Short_Calendar9.pdf" target="_blank">Georgia Secretary of State</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Brian Kemp" with a closing date of 24 May 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-24T23:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-04T14:35:44.814Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6009, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Brian Kemp", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2257, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:55.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:55.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-24T23:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-04T14:35:44.832Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6010, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "David Perdue", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2257, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:57.257Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:57.258Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-24T23:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-04T14:35:44.850Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6011, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 296, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2257, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:53.615Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:53.616Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 297, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-02-07T01:27:40.990Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 107, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, former US Senator David Perdue, and others are battling for the Republican nomination for governor (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_gubernatorial_election,_2022_(May_24_Republican_primary)\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 to Win</a>). The primary election is scheduled for 24 May 2022, with a primary runoff set for 21 June 2022, if needed (<a href=\"https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/2022_State_Short_Calendar9.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Georgia Secretary of State</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Brian Kemp\" with a closing date of 24 May 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-21T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2257, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 296, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 86, "published_at": "2022-02-04T14:35:52.105Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-25T13:54:57.264Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-05-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-04T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-04T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2802 |
<p>North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64972944" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/15/1163633429/japan-south-korea-summit" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-missile-launch-us-military-drills-fbbe3be09a9bd812baa541ea9b84832e" target="_blank">AP</a>). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 April 2023</span>: We are aware of North Korea's launch of an apparent solid-fueled missile on 13 April 2023. We have yet to firm credible, open-source range estimates that would allow us to close the question but are continuing to monitor developments.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 16 June 2023" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.
</p><p>While we were not able to find sufficient credible open-source reporting as to the range of the solid-fueled rocket launched in mid-April 2023, we have found sufficient evidence to conclude that the "Chollima-1" missile launched on 30 May 2023 (PT) has an estimated range of at least 10,000 km. Therefore, the question will be closed as of that date.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:32.025Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:51:19.233Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8084, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 16 June 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 148, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2802, "question_name": "When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:33.257Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:33.258Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:32.025Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:51:19.241Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8085, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 148, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2802, "question_name": "When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:34.167Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:34.168Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:32.025Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:51:19.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8086, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 16 September 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 148, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2802, "question_name": "When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:35.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:35.108Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 211, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64972944\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/03/15/1163633429/japan-south-korea-summit\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-missile-launch-us-military-drills-fbbe3be09a9bd812baa541ea9b84832e\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (<a href=\"https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/\" target=\"_blank\">CSIS</a>). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 17 April 2023</span>: We are aware of North Korea's launch of an apparent solid-fueled missile on 13 April 2023. We have yet to firm credible, open-source range estimates that would allow us to close the question but are continuing to monitor developments.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 16 June 2023\" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.\r\n</p><p>While we were not able to find sufficient credible open-source reporting as to the range of the solid-fueled rocket launched in mid-April 2023, we have found sufficient evidence to conclude that the \"Chollima-1\" missile launched on 30 May 2023 (PT) has an estimated range of at least 10,000 km. Therefore, the question will be closed as of that date.<br></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-09-16T07:00:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2802, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 148, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 44, "published_at": "2023-03-17T14:51:19.297Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-12T19:58:35.119Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-17T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-17T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:56:41.652Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3200 | <p>Facing stiff challenges in the congressional district she currently represents, Rep. Lauren Boebert announced for the 2024 US elections that she would run in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Ken Buck has decided not to seek reelection (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/lauren-boeberts-shift-colorados-4th-congressional-district-responses-opponents/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.postindependent.com/news/a-whole-new-race-in-colorados-3rd-congressional-district-after-lauren-boebert-abandons-her-candidacy/" target="_blank">Post Independent</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4287623-rep-ken-buck-wont-run-for-reelection-criticizing-gops-election-denialism/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The Republican primary is scheduled for 25 June 2024 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). If Boebert does not appear on the ballot for whatever reason, the question will close "Fourth or lower." In the event of a tie for first place, the outcome will be determined based on the tie-breaking procedures used under Colorado state law (<a href="https://ebenchbook.org/colorado/statutes/1-11-101-tie-votes-at-partisan-elections/" target="_blank">eBenchBook - CRS 1-11-101</a>, see (3)).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:42:41.431Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "25%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9903, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "First", "normalized_probability": 0.2483, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 35, "probability": 0.2483, "probability_formatted": "25%", "question_id": 3200, "question_name": "In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:34:04.095Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:42:41.438Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "45%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9904, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Second", "normalized_probability": 0.4525, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 35, "probability": 0.4525, "probability_formatted": "45%", "question_id": 3200, "question_name": "In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:34:04.091Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:42:41.444Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "16%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9905, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Third", "normalized_probability": 0.1625, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 35, "probability": 0.1625, "probability_formatted": "16%", "question_id": 3200, "question_name": "In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:34:04.086Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:42:41.451Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9906, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fourth or lower", "normalized_probability": 0.1367, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 35, "probability": 0.1367, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 3200, "question_name": "In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:34:04.080Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 39, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Facing stiff challenges in the congressional district she currently represents, Rep. Lauren Boebert announced for the 2024 US elections that she would run in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Ken Buck has decided not to seek reelection (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/lauren-boeberts-shift-colorados-4th-congressional-district-responses-opponents/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.postindependent.com/news/a-whole-new-race-in-colorados-3rd-congressional-district-after-lauren-boebert-abandons-her-candidacy/\" target=\"_blank\">Post Independent</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4287623-rep-ken-buck-wont-run-for-reelection-criticizing-gops-election-denialism/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The Republican primary is scheduled for 25 June 2024 (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>). If Boebert does not appear on the ballot for whatever reason, the question will close \"Fourth or lower.\" In the event of a tie for first place, the outcome will be determined based on the tie-breaking procedures used under Colorado state law (<a href=\"https://ebenchbook.org/colorado/statutes/1-11-101-tie-votes-at-partisan-elections/\" target=\"_blank\">eBenchBook - CRS 1-11-101</a>, see (3)).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-06-25T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3200, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 35, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 27, "published_at": "2024-01-05T16:51:25.776Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2024-01-05T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:34:07.170Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2147 |
<p>While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers (<a href="https://aci.aero/news/2021/04/22/aci-world-data-reveals-covid-19s-impact-on-worlds-busiest-airports/" target="_blank">ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings</a>). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 (<a href="https://aci.aero" target="_blank">ACI</a>).</p><p>
</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "4th to 6th" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:32:30.602Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5606, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1st to 3rd", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 383, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2147, "question_name": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:43.472Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:43.472Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:32:30.618Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5607, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4th to 6th", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 383, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2147, "question_name": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:40.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:40.791Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:32:30.634Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5608, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7th to 9th", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 383, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2147, "question_name": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:35.756Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:35.757Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:32:30.650Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5609, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "10th or lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 383, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2147, "question_name": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:38.255Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:38.256Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 394, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers (<a href=\"https://aci.aero/news/2021/04/22/aci-world-data-reveals-covid-19s-impact-on-worlds-busiest-airports/\" target=\"_blank\">ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings</a>). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 (<a href=\"https://aci.aero\" target=\"_blank\">ACI</a>).</p><p>\r\n \r\n </p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"4th to 6th\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2147, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:21:30.955+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:20:13.755+00:00"}, "name": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 383, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2021-10-01T15:32:30.740Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-05T13:21:43.480Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2089 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 15 December 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-15T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-30T14:13:02.463Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5425, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2089, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:21.999Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:22.000Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-15T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-30T14:13:02.490Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5426, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2089, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:23.268Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:23.269Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-15T19:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-30T14:13:02.517Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5427, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2089, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:24.659Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:24.660Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 167, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-30T17:08:29.698Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 15 December 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-15T08:01:06.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2089, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:49.198+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:33.751+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 165, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2021-07-30T16:48:16.756Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-15T22:54:24.668Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-15T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-30T10:00:06.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-30T17:00:06.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2727 |
<p>The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (<a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/netflix-versus-disney-subscribers/" target="_blank">Visual Capitalist</a>, <a href="https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-total-streaming-subscribers-1235089361/" target="_blank">Deadline</a>). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (<a href="https://ir.netflix.net/financials/quarterly-earnings/default.aspx" target="_blank">Netflix</a>, see "Letter to Shareholders" (quarterly), <a href="https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/," target="_blank">https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/,</a> see "Quarterly Earning Reports"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (<a href="https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/FINAL-Q2-22-Shareholder-Letter.pdf" target="_blank">Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders</a>, sum "Paid Memberships" under "Regional Breakdown," or 220.67 million; <a href="https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/08/q3-fy22-earnings.pdf" target="_blank">Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report</a>, sum "Paid subscribers" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "First quarter of 2023 or before" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.025Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7812, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "First quarter of 2023 or before", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 117, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2727, "question_name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:23.735Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:23.736Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.043Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7813, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Second quarter of 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2727, "question_name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:24.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:24.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7814, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Third quarter of 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2727, "question_name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:25.311Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:25.312Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.059Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7815, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fourth quarter of 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2727, "question_name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:26.231Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:26.232Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.068Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7816, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2727, "question_name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:27.001Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:27.001Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 127, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/netflix-versus-disney-subscribers/\" target=\"_blank\">Visual Capitalist</a>, <a href=\"https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-total-streaming-subscribers-1235089361/\" target=\"_blank\">Deadline</a>). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (<a href=\"https://ir.netflix.net/financials/quarterly-earnings/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix</a>, see \"Letter to Shareholders\" (quarterly), <a href=\"https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/,\" target=\"_blank\">https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/,</a>\u00a0see \"Quarterly Earning Reports\"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (<a href=\"https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/FINAL-Q2-22-Shareholder-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders</a>, sum \"Paid Memberships\" under \"Regional Breakdown,\" or 220.67 million; <a href=\"https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/08/q3-fy22-earnings.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report</a>, sum \"Paid subscribers\" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"First quarter of 2023 or before\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2727, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 117, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 47, "published_at": "2023-01-23T18:51:57.142Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T00:50:27.008Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-23T11:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-23T19:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:58.023Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
Subsets and Splits