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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/791 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = "https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDB:DAX"target="_blank">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:03:48.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1756, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 12,940", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 791, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Germany's DAX Performance-Index (INDEXDB: DAX) on 15 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:31:15.116Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:26.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:03:48.115Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1757, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 12,940 and 13,140, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 791, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Germany's DAX Performance-Index (INDEXDB: DAX) on 15 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:30:55.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:27.425Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:03:48.181Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1758, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 13,140 but less than 13,360", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 791, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Germany's DAX Performance-Index (INDEXDB: DAX) on 15 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:30:37.613Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:28.196Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:03:48.211Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1759, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 13,360 and 13,560, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 791, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Germany's DAX Performance-Index (INDEXDB: DAX) on 15 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:30:16.917Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:28.492Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:03:48.259Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1760, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 13,560", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 791, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Germany's DAX Performance-Index (INDEXDB: DAX) on 15 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:29:53.574Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:28.972Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 187, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-14T04:09:25.561Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "93%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = \"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDB:DAX\"target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/41 | Opinion polls show the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals in a tight race as election day draws near (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-federal-election-poll-1.3228714 , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/02/canada-election-leaders-factbox-idUSKCN0Q70OG20150802 ). The elections are scheduled for 19 October 2015. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-19T21:05:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:35:00.673Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 61, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Conservative", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 457, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 41, "question_name": "Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-20T21:20:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:13.479Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-19T21:05:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:35:14.537Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 62, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Liberal", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 457, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 41, "question_name": "Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-20T21:20:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:14.045Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-19T21:05:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:35:42.266Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 63, "membership_id": 6, "name": "New Democratic Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 457, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 41, "question_name": "Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-20T21:20:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:14.601Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-19T21:05:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:36:13.016Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 64, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Other", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 457, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 41, "question_name": "Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-20T21:20:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:15.476Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 491, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-10-15T13:35:46.370Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "89%", "description": "Opinion polls show the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals in a tight race as election day draws near (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-federal-election-poll-1.3228714 , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/02/canada-election-leaders-factbox-idUSKCN0Q70OG20150802 ). 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/663 | On September 5, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that no new applications under the Obama Administration-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program will be processed, and that renewals for those already granted permits under the program will be granted through the next six months (<a href = "http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/text-trump-statement-on-daca-dreamers-immigration/"target="_blank">Chicago Sun Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/politics/daca-trump-congress/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). President Trump has called on Congress to pass legislation to codify the program before those six months end (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-06/trump-says-daca-bill-should-protect-immigrants-reinforce-border"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Legal protections of any duration will count.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
President Trump did not sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 April 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-20T14:46:19.499Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1390, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and that legislation will apply to all DACA participants", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 687, "predictions_count": 1469, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 663, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2018, will President Trump sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T16:11:49.990Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.618Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-20T14:46:19.534Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1391, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, but that legislation will not apply to all DACA participants", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 687, "predictions_count": 1469, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 663, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2018, will President Trump sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T16:15:32.661Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.736Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-20T14:46:19.565Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1392, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 687, "predictions_count": 1469, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 663, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2018, will President Trump sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T16:13:45.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.855Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1548, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-20T18:41:08.978Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 162, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "On September 5, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that no new applications under the Obama Administration-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program will be processed, and that renewals for those already granted permits under the program will be granted through the next six months (<a href = \"http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/text-trump-statement-on-daca-dreamers-immigration/\"target=\"_blank\">Chicago Sun Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/politics/daca-trump-congress/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). President Trump has called on Congress to pass legislation to codify the program before those six months end (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-06/trump-says-daca-bill-should-protect-immigrants-reinforce-border\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). Legal protections of any duration will count.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nPresident Trump did not sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/443 | This question refers to the following CEOs and government leaders: Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister), Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Prime Minister), Sergey Shoygu (Defense Minister), Alexander Bastrykin (Investigative Committee leader), Nikolai Patrushev (Head, Security Council of Russia), Igor Sechin (Rosneft CEO), and Alexey Miller (Gazprom CEO). In the event that one of the listed officials moves to a different top position as a cabinet member (<a href = "http://government.ru/en/gov/"target="_blank">The Russian Government</a>) or CEO of Rosneft, Gazprom, SberBank, or VTB, it will not count toward the total. Since mid-2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed from prominent positions four close allies: Sergei Ivanov, Andrei Belyaninov, Viktor Ivanov, and Vladimir Yakunin (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/world/europe/head-of-russias-national-railway-a-putin-associate-said-to-be-ousted.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/13/world/europe/sergei-ivanov-putin-russia.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as “0 to 1” with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T16:11:11.180Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 891, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0 to 1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 443, "question_name": "Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T14:23:43.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:06.542Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T16:11:11.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 892, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2 to 3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 443, "question_name": "Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T14:21:33.689Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:07.108Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T16:11:11.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 893, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 to 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 443, "question_name": "Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T14:24:56.377Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:08.041Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T16:11:11.403Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 894, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "6 to 7", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 692, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 443, "question_name": "Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T14:22:36.704Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:08.295Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 738, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-31T21:52:43.914Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 150, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "68%", "description": "This question refers to the following CEOs and government leaders: Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister), Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Prime Minister), Sergey Shoygu (Defense Minister), Alexander Bastrykin (Investigative Committee leader), Nikolai Patrushev (Head, Security Council of Russia), Igor Sechin (Rosneft CEO), and Alexey Miller (Gazprom CEO). In the event that one of the listed officials moves to a different top position as a cabinet member (<a href = \"http://government.ru/en/gov/\"target=\"_blank\">The Russian Government</a>) or CEO of Rosneft, Gazprom, SberBank, or VTB, it will not count toward the total. Since mid-2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed from prominent positions four close allies: Sergei Ivanov, Andrei Belyaninov, Viktor Ivanov, and Vladimir Yakunin (<a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/world/europe/head-of-russias-national-railway-a-putin-associate-said-to-be-ousted.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/13/world/europe/sergei-ivanov-putin-russia.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \u201c0 to 1\u201d with an end date of 1 July 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:41.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 443, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:28:28.529+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:57.595+00:00"}, "name": "Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 692, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 211, "published_at": "2017-03-21T16:11:11.777Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T14:24:56.526Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-21T10:00:41.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-21T17:00:41.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1065 | The status of Northern Ireland after the planned Brexit has become a focal point of negotiations between the UK and the EU (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/files/draft-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community-agreed-negotiators-level-14-november-2018_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). Adoption of a temporary (e.g., "backstop") or a permanent solution will count.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 January 2020. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:05:48.848Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2437, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 431, "predictions_count": 876, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1065, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T21:09:37.315Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:48.631Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:05:48.868Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2438, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, the United Kingdom's customs territory only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 431, "predictions_count": 876, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1065, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T21:09:45.545Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:49.200Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:05:48.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2439, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, the European Union's customs territory only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 431, "predictions_count": 876, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1065, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T21:09:26.019Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:50.425Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:05:48.912Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2440, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, a single customs territory that includes both the European Union and the United Kingdom", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 431, "predictions_count": 876, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1065, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T21:09:15.218Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:51.204Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 895, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-17T11:11:11.688Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 348, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "The status of Northern Ireland after the planned Brexit has become a focal point of negotiations between the UK and the EU (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/files/draft-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community-agreed-negotiators-level-14-november-2018_en\" target=\"_blank\">European Commission</a>). Adoption of a temporary (e.g., \"backstop\") or a permanent solution will count.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed as \"No\" with an end date of 1 January 2020. </p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2020-01-01T07:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1065, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:58:48.452+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:56.507+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:06:55.320+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:48:06.842+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 876, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 431, "published_at": "2018-12-21T16:05:48.978Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T21:09:45.559Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-21T10:00:50.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-21T18:00:50.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.984Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/404 |
The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>. </sub>
This question was closed on "The Salesman" (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.339Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 786, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Land of Mine", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 173, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 404, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:55.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:32.969Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.356Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 787, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A Man Called Ove", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 173, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 404, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:32.474Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:33.565Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.369Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 788, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "The Salesman", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 173, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 404, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:37.951Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:33.764Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.384Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 789, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Tanna", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 173, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 404, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:43.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:34.006Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.401Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 790, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Toni Erdmann", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 173, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 404, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:49.629Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:34.287Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 173, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-02-27T02:58:59.873Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\nThe <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. </sub>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"The Salesman\" (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 404, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:43.631+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:56.687+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 173, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 85, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:23:23.486Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T18:51:55.583Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266 | This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Minsk II agreement required the government of Ukraine and separatist forces to reach an agreement on local elections in separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-in-full.html" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>). So far, however, no agreement has been reached, and elections have not yet been held in Donetsk (<a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/germany-push-deal-east-ukraine-elections-may-11-foreign-minister-meeting-berlin/27727526.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href="http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160419/1038261241/donetsk-elections.html" target="_blank">Sputnik News</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-conditions-for-elections-in-donbas/3309806.html" target="_blank">VOA News</a>, <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-ukraine-can-solve-its-local-election-conundrum" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="http://tass.ru/en/world/883753" target="_blank">TASS Russian News Agency</a>).
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/264" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/194" target="_blank">Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70" target="_blank">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:10:17.870Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 502, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 582, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 266, "question_name": "Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:29:25.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:50.578Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:10:17.892Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 503, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government of Ukraine", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 582, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 266, "question_name": "Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:28:57.093Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:50.801Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:10:17.921Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 504, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 582, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 266, "question_name": "Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:28:26.744Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:51.052Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 662, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-23T17:05:21.535Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 130, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed on \"No\" with an end date of 31 December 2016. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThe Minsk II agreement required the government of Ukraine and separatist forces to reach an agreement on local elections in separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (<a href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-in-full.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Telegraph</a>). So far, however, no agreement has been reached, and elections have not yet been held in Donetsk (<a href=\"http://www.rferl.org/content/germany-push-deal-east-ukraine-elections-may-11-foreign-minister-meeting-berlin/27727526.html\" target=\"_blank\">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href=\"http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160419/1038261241/donetsk-elections.html\" target=\"_blank\">Sputnik News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-conditions-for-elections-in-donbas/3309806.html\" target=\"_blank\">VOA News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-ukraine-can-solve-its-local-election-conundrum\" target=\"_blank\">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href=\"http://tass.ru/en/world/883753\" target=\"_blank\">TASS Russian News Agency</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/264\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/194\" target=\"_blank\">Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70\" target=\"_blank\">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-02-01T07:59:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 266, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:52.192+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:09.829+00:00"}, "name": "Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 582, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 156, "published_at": "2016-08-23T16:10:17.988Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:29:25.817Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-23T10:00:15.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-23T17:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/558 | This question will be resolved using oil production data measured in thousands of barrels per day (tb/d) reported for Libya for September in the "OPEC Crude Oil Production Based on Secondary Sources" table of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (<a href = "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm"target="_blank">OPEC</a>), expected to be published on 11 October 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
In September 2017 Libya produced 923 tb/d of crude oil (<a href = "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202017.pdf"target="_blank">OPEC</a>). This question closed as "Less than 967.33," with an end date of 30 September 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:39:18.251Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1148, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 967.33", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 480, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 558, "question_name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:56:03.976Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:04.763Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:39:18.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1149, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 967.33 and 1093.53, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 480, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 558, "question_name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:55:57.169Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:06.002Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:39:18.084Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1145, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1093.53 but less than 1202.22", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 480, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 558, "question_name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:56:16.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:01.712Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:39:18.136Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1146, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1202.22 and 1328.41, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 480, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 558, "question_name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:56:23.241Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:02.175Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:39:18.203Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1147, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1328.41", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 480, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 558, "question_name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:56:10.920Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:03.261Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 534, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-30T12:09:17.045Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "This question will be resolved using oil production data measured in thousands of barrels per day (tb/d) reported for Libya for September in the \"OPEC Crude Oil Production Based on Secondary Sources\" table of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (<a href = \"http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OPEC</a>), expected to be published on 11 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nIn September 2017 Libya produced 923 tb/d of crude oil (<a href = \"http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202017.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">OPEC</a>). This question closed as \"Less than 967.33,\" with an end date of 30 September 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T03:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 558, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:27.225+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:20.168+00:00"}, "name": "How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 480, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 131, "published_at": "2017-08-16T15:18:16.247Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-13T17:56:23.255Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-16T09:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-16T16:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/571 | A recently published study on chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found traces of the degenerative brain disease not only in former NFL players, but in college and high school football players as well (<a href = "http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2645104"target="_blank">The Journal of the American Medical Association</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html?mcubz=1"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20153831/cte-found-nearly-90-percent-brains-donated-deceased-football-players"target="_blank">ESPN</a>). Eleven-player football enrollment declined by approximately 23K players from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. Outcome will be determined using data provided by the <a href = "http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/ParticipationStatistics/"target="_blank">National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS)</a> for the 2017-18 season.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive" with an end date of 24 August 2018. According to the NFHS 1,038,179 students participated in eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season. (<a href = "http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/PDF/2017-18%20High%20School%20Athletics%20Participation%20Survey.pdf"target="_blank">NFHS</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-24T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:04.727Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1185, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 1,030,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 485, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 571, "question_name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:10.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:40.382Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-24T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:04.762Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1186, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 485, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 571, "question_name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:19.867Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:40.849Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-24T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:04.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1187, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1,040,000 but less than 1,050,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 485, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 571, "question_name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:46.365Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:41.111Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-24T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:04.844Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1188, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,060,000, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 485, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 571, "question_name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:37.363Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:41.443Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-24T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:04.870Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1189, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1,060,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 485, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 571, "question_name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:27.880Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:41.771Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 489, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "A recently published study on chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found traces of the degenerative brain disease not only in former NFL players, but in college and high school football players as well (<a href = \"http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2645104\"target=\"_blank\">The Journal of the American Medical Association</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html?mcubz=1\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20153831/cte-found-nearly-90-percent-brains-donated-deceased-football-players\"target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). Eleven-player football enrollment declined by approximately 23K players from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. Outcome will be determined using data provided by the <a href = \"http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/ParticipationStatistics/\"target=\"_blank\">National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS)</a> for the 2017-18 season.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive\" with an end date of 24 August 2018. According to the NFHS 1,038,179 students participated in eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season. (<a href = \"http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/PDF/2017-18%20High%20School%20Athletics%20Participation%20Survey.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">NFHS</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-08-01T06:59:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 571, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:15.255+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:27.333+00:00"}, "name": "How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 485, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 246, "published_at": "2017-09-01T14:58:05.041Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T13:57:46.396Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-07-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-01T10:00:26.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-01T17:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/810 | Outcome will be determined by <a href = "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/autonomousveh_ol316"target="_blank">California DMV data</a>. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in <a href = "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/?1dmy&urile=wcm:path:/dmv_content_en/dmv/vehindustry/ol/auton_veh_tester"target="_blank">California</a>. According to the <ahref = "https://govt.westlaw.com/calregs/Document/I35938DA0E79611E3B1CDC211BAD8AD24?viewType=FullText&originationContext=documenttoc&transitionType=CategoryPageItem&contextData=(sc.Default)"target="_blank">California Code of Regulations Section 227.44</a>, companies shall report within 10 days <a href = "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5607180/"target="_blank">any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle</a> on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T16:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1810, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1072, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 810, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:19:53.793Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.964Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T16:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.176Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1811, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 10 and 19, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1072, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 810, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:19:34.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:37.104Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T16:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.257Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1812, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 20 and 29, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1072, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 810, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:19:21.860Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:37.259Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T16:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.286Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1813, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 30 and 39, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1072, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 810, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:19:05.736Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:37.408Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T16:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.337Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1814, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "40 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 496, "predictions_count": 1072, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 810, "question_name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:18:50.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:37.572Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1123, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-20T08:17:58.730Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by <a href = \"https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/autonomousveh_ol316\"target=\"_blank\">California DMV data</a>. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in <a href = \"https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/?1dmy&urile=wcm:path:/dmv_content_en/dmv/vehindustry/ol/auton_veh_tester\"target=\"_blank\">California</a>. According to the <ahref = \"https://govt.westlaw.com/calregs/Document/I35938DA0E79611E3B1CDC211BAD8AD24?viewType=FullText&originationContext=documenttoc&transitionType=CategoryPageItem&contextData=(sc.Default)\"target=\"_blank\">California Code of Regulations Section 227.44</a>, companies shall report within 10 days <a href = \"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5607180/\"target=\"_blank\">any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle</a> on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included. \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 810, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:27.568+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:01.697+00:00"}, "name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1072, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 496, "published_at": "2017-12-08T16:54:48.458Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/autonomousveh_ol316"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T16:19:53.817Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-08T10:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-08T18:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/104 | The Toy Industry Association holds an annual competition for the year's best toys (<a href = "http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/toy-industry-unveils-finalists-for-2016-toy-of-the-year-toty-awards-300180059.html" target = "_blank">PR Newswire</a>). Check out the finalists here: <a href = "http://www.toyawards.org/toyaward/custom/InnovativeToy.aspx" target = "_blank">Toy of the Year Awards</a>. The winners will be announced on 12 February 2016.
<img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-1.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-2.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-3.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-4.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-5.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-6.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-7.jpg' height='100'> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:45:20.480Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 177, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Star Wars Science - Jedi Force Levitator", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:43.195Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:42:15.836Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 171, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Flipsies\u2122 Sandy's House & Ocean Cruiser", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:33.540Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:42:53.021Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 172, "membership_id": 6, "name": " i-loom", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:34.776Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:43:12.332Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 173, "membership_id": 6, "name": " Laser Maze\u2122 Jr.", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:37.412Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:43:40.646Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 174, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Makey Makey Classic", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:40.022Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:44:19.567Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 175, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Meccanoid G15", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:41.157Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-12T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:44:46.704Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 176, "membership_id": 6, "name": "MiPosaur", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 341, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 104, "question_name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:42.063Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 383, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The Toy Industry Association holds an annual competition for the year's best toys (<a href = \"http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/toy-industry-unveils-finalists-for-2016-toy-of-the-year-toty-awards-300180059.html\" target = \"_blank\">PR Newswire</a>). Check out the finalists here: <a href = \"http://www.toyawards.org/toyaward/custom/InnovativeToy.aspx\" target = \"_blank\">Toy of the Year Awards</a>. The winners will be announced on 12 February 2016.\r\n\r\n<img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-1.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-2.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-3.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-4.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-5.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-6.jpg' height='100'> <img src='http://www.toyawards.org/app_themes/toyaward_resp/images/toty/innovate/innovate-7.jpg' height='100'>", "ends_at": "2016-02-12T07:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 104, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:58.986+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:52:03.000+00:00"}, "name": "Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 341, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 182, "published_at": "2015-12-22T15:47:35.404Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-16T22:03:09.553Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-02-11T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-12-22T10:00:28.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-12-22T18:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/940 |
This question will be resolved using data reported by <a href="https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex" target="_blank">SIPRI</a>. According to SIPRI, Russia's 2016 military expenditures were 5.3% of GDP. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><sub><br></sub><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 4.4%" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:52.574Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2075, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 4.4%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 298, "predictions_count": 747, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 940, "question_name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:10:21.398Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:40.918Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:52.800Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2076, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 4.4% and 4.9%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 298, "predictions_count": 747, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 940, "question_name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:10:45.724Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:41.418Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:52.884Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2077, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 298, "predictions_count": 747, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 940, "question_name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:10:14.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:41.849Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:52.974Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2078, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 5.5% and 6.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 298, "predictions_count": 747, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 940, "question_name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:11:01.576Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:42.671Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:53.119Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2079, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 298, "predictions_count": 747, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 940, "question_name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:10:30.689Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:43.089Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 808, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-10-13T16:10:23.801Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 444, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "29%", "description": "\r\n This question will be resolved using data reported by <a href=\"https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex\" target=\"_blank\">SIPRI</a>. According to SIPRI, Russia's 2016 military expenditures were 5.3% of GDP. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><sub><br></sub><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 4.4%\" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-01T07:59:11.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 940, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:24.373+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:52.979+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:48:48.628+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:27:09.382+00:00"}, "name": "What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 747, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 298, "published_at": "2018-04-18T17:02:53.506Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-28T15:11:01.592Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-18T10:02:53.506-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:11.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.963Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/134 | Sign up and enter your own forecast, to compete in <i>The Economist</i>'s Challenge!
Closing the border would also suffice to resolve the question. Austria announced a cap on asylum seekers in January (<a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14eab1c2-bf6d-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>) and though Germany has taken steps to reduce the influx of refugees (<a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/29/germany-tightens-borders-as-finland-joins-sweden-in-deporting-refugees" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>), there is growing pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to go further and close her country's borders or otherwise cap the number of refugees her country will accept (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10465" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/europe-refugee-crisis-germany-angela-merkel-424026" target = "_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-merkel-poll-idUSKCN0UX0M7" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14eab1c2-bf6d-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12108806/Germany-should-close-its-borders-to-refugees-Angela-Merkels-own-transport-minister-says.html" target = "_blank">Telegraph</a>).
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11">FAQ</a>.
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1050 | <p>While Uber's potential IPO might be one of the largest ever, the company's present and future performance are sources of uncertainty for investors, market watchers and other interested observers (<a href="http://fortune.com/2018/10/19/tech-companies-ipos-2019/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/094d4f08-d150-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/uber-is-said-to-get-ipo-pitches-at-potential-120-billion-value" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.</p><p>
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"2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2391, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $40 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:48:47.437Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:05.140Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.731Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2392, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $40 billion and $70 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:48:34.306Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:07.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.779Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2393, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $70 billion but less than $100 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:48:20.554Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:08.631Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.822Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2394, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $100 billion and $130 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:48:07.353Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:09.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.906Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2395, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $130 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:47:54.026Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:11.307Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-10T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:28.976Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2396, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Uber will not have an IPO before 1 October 2019", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 529, "predictions_count": 1198, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1050, "question_name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:47:40.933Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:12.592Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1251, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>While Uber's potential IPO might be one of the largest ever, the company's present and future performance are sources of uncertainty for investors, market watchers and other interested observers (<a href=\"http://fortune.com/2018/10/19/tech-companies-ipos-2019/\" target=\"_blank\">Fortune</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/094d4f08-d150-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/uber-is-said-to-get-ipo-pitches-at-potential-120-billion-value\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).\u000bOutcome will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.</p><p>\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a></sub><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>Uber closed with a market capitalization of $69.711B, closing with \"Between $40 billion and $70 billion, inclusive\" on 10 May 2019. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-10-01T06:59:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1050, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:00:23.565+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:45.976+00:00"}, "name": "What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?<br>", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1198, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 529, "published_at": "2018-11-30T16:43:29.173Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-05-10T21:48:47.468Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-05-10T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-30T10:00:17.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-30T18:00:17.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.980Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/672 | The question will resolve based on the closing price reported at <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D"target="_blank">CNBC</a> using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC, was $11,524.98. This question closed as "more than $10,000" with an end date of 26 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-26T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.079Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1409, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 312, "predictions_count": 1086, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 672, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:43:44.058Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-26T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.120Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1410, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1,000 and $4,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 312, "predictions_count": 1086, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 672, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:43:32.745Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.696Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-26T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.156Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1411, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $4,000 but less than $7,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 312, "predictions_count": 1086, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 672, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:42:56.983Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.821Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-26T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.191Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1412, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $7,000 and $10,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 312, "predictions_count": 1086, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 672, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:43:09.190Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.934Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-26T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.236Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1413, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $10,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 312, "predictions_count": 1086, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 672, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:43:21.515Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.064Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1243, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-29T07:47:43.296Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 58, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "36%", "description": "The question will resolve based on the closing price reported at <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a> using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC, was $11,524.98. This question closed as \"more than $10,000\" with an end date of 26 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-26T07:59:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 672, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:02.512+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:14.701+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1086, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 312, "published_at": "2017-10-27T15:41:57.370Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:43:44.089Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-01-25T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-27T10:00:09.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-27T17:00:09.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/274 | This question was closed as "More than 135 Million" with an end date of 8 November 2016. More than 136 million people voted in the 2016 US election (<a href = "http://cookpolitical.com/story/10174" target = "_blank">The Cook Political Report</a>, <a href = "http://www.electproject.org/2016g" target = "_blank">US Elections Project</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have historically high unfavorable ratings (<a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup</a>, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>), which could lead to a large number of eligible voters staying home on election day - or could motivate them to go to the polls to vote against one candidate. The voting eligible population of the US is estimated by PEW to be around 225 million people (<a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/" target="_blank">Pew Research Center</a>), a turnout of fewer than 113 million would indicate approximately 50% turnout or less while a turnout of more than 135 million would indicate approximately 60% turnout or greater. For historical turnout rates see: <a href="http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present" target="_blank">United States Election Project</a>. Thanks to <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/915" target="_blank">alistaircookie</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/241" target="_blank">Jean-Pierre</a> for suggesting this question!
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:05:47.627Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 528, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 113 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 314, "predictions_count": 773, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 274, "question_name": "How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-21T15:40:57.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:00.884Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:05:47.707Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 529, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 113 million and 135 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 314, "predictions_count": 773, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 274, "question_name": "How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-21T15:42:02.572Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:01.543Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:05:47.772Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 530, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 135 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 314, "predictions_count": 773, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 274, "question_name": "How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-21T15:43:10.090Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:02.144Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 805, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed as \"More than 135 Million\" with an end date of 8 November 2016. More than 136 million people voted in the 2016 US election (<a href = \"http://cookpolitical.com/story/10174\" target = \"_blank\">The Cook Political Report</a>, <a href = \"http://www.electproject.org/2016g\" target = \"_blank\">US Elections Project</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nHillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have historically high unfavorable ratings (<a href=\"http://www.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Gallup</a>, <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>), which could lead to a large number of eligible voters staying home on election day - or could motivate them to go to the polls to vote against one candidate. The voting eligible population of the US is estimated by PEW to be around 225 million people (<a href=\"http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/\" target=\"_blank\">Pew Research Center</a>), a turnout of fewer than 113 million would indicate approximately 50% turnout or less while a turnout of more than 135 million would indicate approximately 60% turnout or greater. For historical turnout rates see: <a href=\"http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present\" target=\"_blank\">United States Election Project</a>. Thanks to <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/915\" target=\"_blank\">alistaircookie</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/241\" target=\"_blank\">Jean-Pierre</a> for suggesting this question!\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/268\" target=\"_blank\">Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/275\" target=\"_blank\">Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 274, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:10.313+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:39.427+00:00"}, "name": "How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 773, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 314, "published_at": "2016-09-02T14:05:47.926Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-21T15:43:10.184Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-09-02T10:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-09-02T17:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1052 | <p></p><p>Brexit developments have intensified as the official leave date nears (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/allboutBrexit" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a196cf1a-e676-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3" target="_blank">The Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/gordon-brown-backs-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). </p><p>
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This question closed as "No" with an end date of 30 March 2019.
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</sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-03-30T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-02T02:27:25.225Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2398, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1410, "predictions_count": 2118, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1052, "question_name": "Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019? \u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-01T15:51:52.979Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:14.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-03-30T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-02T02:27:25.270Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2399, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, only a snap general election", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1410, "predictions_count": 2118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1052, "question_name": "Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019? \u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-01T15:51:12.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:15.811Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-03-30T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-02T02:27:25.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2400, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1410, "predictions_count": 2118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1052, "question_name": "Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019? \u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-01T15:50:45.977Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:16.397Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-03-30T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-02T02:27:25.343Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2401, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1410, "predictions_count": 2118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1052, "question_name": "Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019? \u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-01T15:50:22.885Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:16.756Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2341, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-08T11:13:17.411Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 79, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "33%", "description": "<p></p><p>Brexit developments have intensified as the official leave date nears (<a href=\"https://worldin2019.economist.com/allboutBrexit\" target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a196cf1a-e676-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\" target=\"_blank\">The Financial Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/gordon-brown-backs-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). </p><p>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n</p><hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"No\" with an end date of 30 March 2019. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n</sub>", "ends_at": "2019-03-29T06:59:11.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1052, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:04:17.783+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:55:05.799+00:00"}, "name": "Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019? \u000b", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2118, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1410, "published_at": "2018-12-02T02:27:25.562Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-01T15:51:53.000Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-01T18:27:25.562-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-30T18:00:11.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.997Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/239 | This question was closed on "Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive" with an end date of 30 December 2016 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR"target ="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The United Kingdom's June 2016 vote to leave the European Union triggered a sharp slide in the value of the British pound relative to the US dollar (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-pound-has-suffered-a-stunning-collapse/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/238" target="_blank">When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-30T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:45:15.326Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 442, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Less than 1.20", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 498, "predictions_count": 2062, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 239, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:32:29.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:22.879Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-30T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:45:15.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 443, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 498, "predictions_count": 2062, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 239, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-06T18:27:09.164Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:23.264Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-30T18:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:45:15.359Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 444, "membership_id": 4461, 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"status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:25.432Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2150, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-10-04T09:58:12.560Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 87, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "49%", "description": "This question was closed on \"Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive\" with an end date of 30 December 2016 (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR\"target =\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThe United Kingdom's June 2016 vote to leave the European Union triggered a sharp slide in the value of the British pound relative to the US dollar (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-pound-has-suffered-a-stunning-collapse/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/598 | Nigeria is facing increasing sectarian violence, even outside of violence attributed to Boko Haram (<a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201706140071.html" target="_blank">All Africa</a>, <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2017/06/11/nigeria-path-another-civil-war-prof-gambari/" target="_blank">Daily Post</a>, <a href="http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/235836-150-nigerians-killed-three-day-communal-clash.html" target="_blank">Premium Times</a>, <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2017/06/13/deadly-conflict-tearing-nigeria-apart-and-it%E2%80%99s-not-boko-haram" target="_blank">IRIN</a>). Outcome will be determined by the deaths attributed to "Sectarian Actor" on <a href="https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483" target="_blank">"Graph 2: Deaths by Perpetrator"</a> on the Council on Foreign Relations Nigeria Security Tracker. The total for September through and February can be found by setting the start period at August 2017 and the end period at February 2018.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
Between September 2017 and February 2018, 618 deaths were attributed to sectarian actors. This question was closed as "b) 500-750, inclusive" with an end date of 28 February 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-12T16:27:09.434Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1252, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 660, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 598, "question_name": "Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-06T18:49:47.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:54.547Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-12T16:27:09.455Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1253, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "500-750, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 660, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 598, "question_name": "Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-06T18:49:54.043Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:55.639Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-12T16:27:09.473Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1254, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 750 but less than 1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 660, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 598, "question_name": "Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-06T18:50:06.090Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:56.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-12T16:27:09.491Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1255, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "1,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 660, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 598, "question_name": "Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-06T18:50:00.135Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:57.093Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "GJ has corrected \"Sectarian Actors\" --> \"Sectarian Actor\" to match the title in the graph cited under \"More Info.\"", "created_at": "2018-02-12T14:24:31.371Z", "id": 24, "question_id": 598, "updated_at": "2018-02-12T14:24:31.371Z"}], "comments_count": 703, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-02-13T01:23:02.108Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "91%", "description": "Nigeria is facing increasing sectarian violence, even outside of violence attributed to Boko Haram (<a href=\"http://allafrica.com/stories/201706140071.html\" target=\"_blank\">All Africa</a>, <a href=\"http://dailypost.ng/2017/06/11/nigeria-path-another-civil-war-prof-gambari/\" target=\"_blank\">Daily Post</a>, <a href=\"http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/235836-150-nigerians-killed-three-day-communal-clash.html\" target=\"_blank\">Premium Times</a>, <a href=\"http://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2017/06/13/deadly-conflict-tearing-nigeria-apart-and-it%E2%80%99s-not-boko-haram\" target=\"_blank\">IRIN</a>). Outcome will be determined by the deaths attributed to \"Sectarian Actor\" on <a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483\" target=\"_blank\">\"Graph 2: Deaths by Perpetrator\"</a> on the Council on Foreign Relations Nigeria Security Tracker. The total for September through and February can be found by setting the start period at August 2017 and the end period at February 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\nBetween September 2017 and February 2018, 618 deaths were attributed to sectarian actors. This question was closed as \"b) 500-750, inclusive\" with an end date of 28 February 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-02-28T07:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 598, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:51.899+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:20.116+00:00"}, "name": "Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 660, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 209, "published_at": "2017-09-12T16:27:09.632Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-06T18:50:06.104Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-02-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-12T10:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-12T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/20 | Elections are scheduled for 25 October, with a runoff, if necessary, scheduled for 22 November (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/11/world/americas/primaries-in-argentina-point-to-a-close-presidential-race.html , http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21660149-voters-are-about-start-choosing-next-president-scion-and-heir ). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-23T01:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:22:45.417Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 30, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 231, "predictions_count": 686, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 20, "question_name": "Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-24T23:26:07.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:53.658Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-23T01:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:22:14.394Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 29, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Sergio Massa", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 231, "predictions_count": 686, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 20, "question_name": "Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-24T23:26:07.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:53.440Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-23T01:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:21:59.136Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 28, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Mauricio Macri", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 231, "predictions_count": 686, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 20, "question_name": "Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-24T23:26:07.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:52.860Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-23T01:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:21:35.397Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 27, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Daniel Scioli", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 231, "predictions_count": 686, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 20, "question_name": "Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-24T23:26:07.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:51.764Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 743, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Elections are scheduled for 25 October, with a runoff, if necessary, scheduled for 22 November (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/11/world/americas/primaries-in-argentina-point-to-a-close-presidential-race.html , http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21660149-voters-are-about-start-choosing-next-president-scion-and-heir ).", "ends_at": "2015-11-23T04:59:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 20, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:46:13.030+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:44:39.482+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 686, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 231, "published_at": "2015-09-07T13:25:03.459Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-24T23:26:07.897Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-11-22T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-08T13:00:36.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-08T20:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/406 | The parent company of the popular messaging app Snapchat has filed for an initial public offering to take place as early as March (<a href = "http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/02/02/5-things-to-look-for-in-snaps-ipo-filing/"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-expect-from-snapchats-ipo-filing-2017-1"target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/snap-to-choose-nyse-for-ipo-source.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Valuation will be based on the end-of-day share price of Snap Inc's first trading day. This question will be extended if the IPO does not occur before the question expires.
<sub>This question will be scored using our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq6" target="_blank">ordered categorical scoring rule</a>.</sub>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target = "_blank">the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223"target = "_blank">SpaceX will launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017</a>.</sub>
This question was closed as "between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive" with an end date of 2 March 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-03T18:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-03T15:20:53.074Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 792, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $20 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 406, "question_name": "What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-03T21:52:25.684Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:34.835Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-03T18:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-03T15:20:53.093Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 793, "membership_id": 29512, "name": " Between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 406, "question_name": "What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-03T21:52:28.578Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:34.979Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-03T18:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-03T15:20:53.119Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 794, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $30 billion but less than $40 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 406, "question_name": "What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-03T21:52:31.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:35.119Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-03T18:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-03T15:20:53.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 795, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "$40 billion or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 120, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 406, "question_name": "What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-03T21:52:34.213Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:35.249Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "Valuation will be based on the total shares outstanding at the end of Snap Inc's first trading day. The relevant number will be posted on <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SNAP:US\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> under market capitalization.", "created_at": "2017-02-23T16:11:05.546Z", "id": 4, "question_id": 406, "updated_at": "2017-02-23T16:11:05.546Z"}], "comments_count": 330, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-02-07T11:42:55.386Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 24, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "The parent company of the popular messaging app Snapchat has filed for an initial public offering to take place as early as March (<a href = \"http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/02/02/5-things-to-look-for-in-snaps-ipo-filing/\"target=\"_blank\">WSJ</a>, <a href = \"http://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-expect-from-snapchats-ipo-filing-2017-1\"target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/snap-to-choose-nyse-for-ipo-source.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). Valuation will be based on the end-of-day share price of Snap Inc's first trading day. This question will be extended if the IPO does not occur before the question expires.\r\n\r\n<sub>This question will be scored using our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq6\" target=\"_blank\">ordered categorical scoring rule</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379\"target = \"_blank\">the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223\"target = \"_blank\">SpaceX will launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as \"between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive\" with an end date of 2 March 2016. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 406, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:25:13.027+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:17.516+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 301, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 120, "published_at": "2017-02-03T15:20:53.194Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-03T21:52:34.226Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-03-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-03T10:00:56.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-03T18:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/885 | The 2018 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14401/political-football"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). Thirty two teams qualified for the tournament and are set to compete (<a href = "http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/teams/index.html"target="_blank">FIFA</a>). For the latest rankings, see: <a href = "http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html"target="_blank">FIFA</a>. To enable forecasting during the game, this question will remain open through the end of the championship game but will only be scored through 12:30 pm ET.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
France won the 2018 FIFA World Cup. This question closed as "France" with an end date of 15 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-15T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-07T15:10:52.081Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1934, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Argentina", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 542, "predictions_count": 1795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 885, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-16T15:09:33.945Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:21.944Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-15T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-07T15:10:52.107Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1935, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Belgium", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 542, "predictions_count": 1795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 885, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? 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", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-16T15:08:06.238Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:30.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-15T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-07T15:10:52.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1943, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Switzerland", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 542, "predictions_count": 1795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 885, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-16T15:07:44.451Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:30.429Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-15T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-07T15:10:52.364Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1944, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Another country", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 542, "predictions_count": 1795, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 885, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-16T15:07:23.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:31.500Z"}], "answers_count": 11, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1908, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-07-15T04:36:43.383Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "The 2018 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018 (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14401/political-football\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>). Thirty two teams qualified for the tournament and are set to compete (<a href = \"http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/teams/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">FIFA</a>). For the latest rankings, see: <a href = \"http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">FIFA</a>. To enable forecasting during the game, this question will remain open through the end of the championship game but will only be scored through 12:30 pm ET. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nFrance won the 2018 FIFA World Cup. This question closed as \"France\" with an end date of 15 July 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-07-16T06:59:12.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 885, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:01.343+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:06.741+00:00"}, "name": "Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/494 | The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won no seats in the Bundestag in 2013 (<a href = "http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/euroskeptic-alternative-for-germany-has-german-election-breakthrough-a-923950.html"target="_blank">Spiegel</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37274201"target="_blank">BBC</a>). Popularity may be rising (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/merkel-stands-by-refugee-policy-after-election-loss-1473078641"target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-idUSKCN1190XG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/18/merkel-damaged-as-german-far-right-surges-in-berlin-elections/"target="_blank">Telegraph</a>). Germany is scheduled to hold federal elections in 2017 (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/bundestag-elections-2017-an-overview-of-all-the-changes-to-national-politics/a-19548800"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Alternative for Germany party won 12.6% of the vote. This question closed as “c) More than 10% but less than 15%” with an end date of 24 September 2017 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/europe/germany-election-afd.html?mcubz=1&_r=1"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41398628"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-24T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-06T16:29:08.568Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 980, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 5% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 238, "predictions_count": 949, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 494, "question_name": "What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-28T14:36:16.280Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:40.883Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-24T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-06T16:29:08.585Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 981, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 5% and 10%, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 238, "predictions_count": 949, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 494, "question_name": "What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-28T14:36:06.221Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:41.279Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-24T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-06T16:29:08.601Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 982, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 10% but less than 15% ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 238, "predictions_count": 949, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 494, "question_name": "What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-28T14:35:55.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:41.541Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-24T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-06T16:29:08.617Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 983, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "15% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 238, "predictions_count": 949, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 494, "question_name": "What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-28T14:35:45.633Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:41.773Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 990, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-17T16:40:47.491Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "94%", "description": "The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won no seats in the Bundestag in 2013 (<a href = \"http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/euroskeptic-alternative-for-germany-has-german-election-breakthrough-a-923950.html\"target=\"_blank\">Spiegel</a>, <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37274201\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). Popularity may be rising (<a href = \"http://www.wsj.com/articles/merkel-stands-by-refugee-policy-after-election-loss-1473078641\"target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-idUSKCN1190XG\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/18/merkel-damaged-as-german-far-right-surges-in-berlin-elections/\"target=\"_blank\">Telegraph</a>). Germany is scheduled to hold federal elections in 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.dw.com/en/bundestag-elections-2017-an-overview-of-all-the-changes-to-national-politics/a-19548800\"target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe Alternative for Germany party won 12.6% of the vote. This question closed as \u201cc) More than 10% but less than 15%\u201d with an end date of 24 September 2017 (<a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/europe/germany-election-afd.html?mcubz=1&_r=1\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41398628\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-10-23T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 494, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:03.565+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:24.223+00:00"}, "name": "What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 949, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 238, "published_at": "2017-06-06T16:29:08.703Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-28T14:36:16.308Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-06T10:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-06T17:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/692 | Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR"target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017 was $1.35. This question closed as "Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.057Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1468, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $1.25", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 692, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:20:49.538Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:03.132Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.100Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1470, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.30 but less than $1.35", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 692, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:19:54.853Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:08.786Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.124Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1471, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 692, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:19:29.909Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:10.191Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.144Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1472, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 692, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:19:07.833Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:15.107Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.079Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1469, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1.25 and $1.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 89, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 692, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:20:23.990Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:06.031Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 296, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg <a href = \"http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017 was $1.35. This question closed as \"Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive\" with an end date of 29 December 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-29T07:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 692, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:21.445+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:33.685+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 289, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 89, "published_at": "2017-11-14T17:19:43.210Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:20:49.622Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-14T10:00:50.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-14T18:00:50.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/276 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Chicago Cubs' with an end date of 2 November 2016. The Chicago Cubs won the World Series by bringing home a win in Game 7 on 2 November 2016 (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/sports/baseball/chicago-cubs-beat-cleveland-indians-world-series-game-7.html?_r=0" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/42794/the-clutch-moments-that-won-the-cubs-the-world-series" target="_blank">ESPN</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
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The 2016 Major League Baseball Postseason kicks off on 4 October with the American League Wild Card game, and the playoffs continue through October leading up to the World Series beginning on 25 October (<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp" target="_blank">2016 MLB Postseason Schedule</a>, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/wildcard.jsp" target="_blank">2016 Wild Card Standings</a>, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp" target="_blank">2016 MLB Standings</a>, <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). The answer names will be replaced with the names of the remaining teams as other teams from the same division are eliminated.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44" target="_blank">Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:25.983Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 532, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Toronto Blue Jays", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:07:58.329Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:03.316Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:26.032Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 533, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Cleveland Indians", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:07:10.569Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:03.661Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:26.096Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 534, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Texas Rangers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:07:22.183Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:04.157Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:26.133Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 535, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Washington Nationals", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:07:40.606Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:04.656Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:26.187Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 536, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Chicago Cubs", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:06:48.981Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:04.981Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-03T03:59:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-02T14:38:26.220Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 537, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 725, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 276, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-04T19:06:59.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:05.309Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 750, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-11-03T04:26:33.411Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Chicago Cubs' with an end date of 2 November 2016. The Chicago Cubs won the World Series by bringing home a win in Game 7 on 2 November 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/sports/baseball/chicago-cubs-beat-cleveland-indians-world-series-game-7.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/42794/the-clutch-moments-that-won-the-cubs-the-world-series\" target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe 2016 Major League Baseball Postseason kicks off on 4 October with the American League Wild Card game, and the playoffs continue through October leading up to the World Series beginning on 25 October (<a href=\"http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp\" target=\"_blank\">2016 MLB Postseason Schedule</a>, <a href=\"http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/wildcard.jsp\" target=\"_blank\">2016 Wild Card Standings</a>, <a href=\"http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp\" target=\"_blank\">2016 MLB Standings</a>, <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>). 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/489 | For CENTCOM area of responsibility, visit: <a href = "http://www.centcom.mil/AREA-OF-RESPONSIBILITY/"target="_blank">Centcom</a>. Examples include, but are not limited to: <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9349777/Syria-shoots-down-Turkish-fighter-jet.html"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/libyan-military-plane-shot-benghazi-160213062015534.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/yemen/jordan-warplane-crashes-in-saudi-arabia-pilot-survives-1.1983697"target="_blank">Gulf News</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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One country, Syria, had a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. This question closed as "1" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.120Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 967, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 617, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 489, "question_name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:56:32.404Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:36.597Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.139Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 968, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 617, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 489, "question_name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:54:33.330Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:36.838Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.152Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 969, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2 or 3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 617, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 489, "question_name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:55:27.413Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:37.157Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.166Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 970, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 617, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 489, "question_name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:57:35.430Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:37.705Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.184Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 971, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 617, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 489, "question_name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:58:30.357Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:38.302Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "As of 14 November, GJ has thoroughly reviewed open source media of multiple incidents. Good Judgment assesses one country, Syria, has had aircraft downed: Once in June 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40322666\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"https://nypost.com/2017/06/18/us-shoots-down-syrian-air-force-fighter/\"target=\"_blank\">NY Post</a>) and once in August 2017 (<a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jet/rebels-say-they-shoot-down-syrian-military-jet-army-confirms-crash-idUSKCN1AV1IV\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/syrian-rebels-claim-downing-regime-warplane-9671\"target=\"_blank\">TRT World</a>, <a href = \"http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=72030\"target=\"_blank\">Syria Observatory for Human Rights</a>). Please note our evaluation of the August 2017 downing considered the totality of reporting and is not based solely on allegations from the rebels. There were other incidents of alleged downing which lacked corroborating evidence and have not been included in the count. ", "created_at": "2017-11-14T16:12:05.354Z", "id": 16, "question_id": 489, "updated_at": "2017-11-14T16:12:05.354Z"}], "comments_count": 710, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-22T16:18:58.292Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 100, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "55%", "description": "For CENTCOM area of responsibility, visit: <a href = \"http://www.centcom.mil/AREA-OF-RESPONSIBILITY/\"target=\"_blank\">Centcom</a>. Examples include, but are not limited to: <a href = \"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9349777/Syria-shoots-down-Turkish-fighter-jet.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/libyan-military-plane-shot-benghazi-160213062015534.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = \"http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/yemen/jordan-warplane-crashes-in-saudi-arabia-pilot-survives-1.1983697\"target=\"_blank\">Gulf News</a>.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nOne country, Syria, had a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. This question closed as \"1\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 489, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:37.391+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:20.349+00:00"}, "name": "How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 617, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 118, "published_at": "2017-05-23T15:20:14.272Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-03T18:58:30.482Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-05-23T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-05-23T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/205 | Speaker Ryan met with Donald Trump, but stopped short of formally endorsing his candidacy (<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/05/12/donald-trump-paul-ryan-republican-nomination-priebus-mcconnell/84271042/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/05/12/republicans-brace-for-outcome-of-trump-ryan-meeting/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). For previous examples of endorsement, see: Chris Christie (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump/" target="_blank">CNN</a>), Rick Scott (<a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/rick-scott-endorses-trump-220864" target="_blank">Politico</a>), Jeff Sessions (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/28/in-major-blow-to-ted-cruz-sen-jeff-sessions-of-alabama-endorses-donald-trump-for-gop-nomination/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Endorsements are also recorded by <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a> and <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/category/endorsements" target="_blank">Trump's campaign</a>.
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For previous examples of endorsement, see: Chris Christie (<a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>), Rick Scott (<a href=\"http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/rick-scott-endorses-trump-220864\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>), Jeff Sessions (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/28/in-major-blow-to-ted-cruz-sen-jeff-sessions-of-alabama-endorses-donald-trump-for-gop-nomination/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). Endorsements are also recorded by <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a> and <a href=\"https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/category/endorsements\" target=\"_blank\">Trump's campaign</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/171\" target=\"_blank\">Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123\" target=\"_blank\">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-06-03T13:38:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 205, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:52.616+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:04:56.947+00:00"}, "name": "When will Paul Ryan formally endorse Donald Trump for president?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 356, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 181, "published_at": "2016-05-20T18:17:08.769Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-06-03T19:16:44.373Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-06-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-20T11:30:07.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-20T18:30:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/939 | Formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country: reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>); receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37356.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>); or entering into Intensified Dialogue (<a href="http://www.self.gutenberg.org/articles/eng/Intensified_Dialogue" target="_blank">Project Gutenberg</a>). Countries will only be counted once.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr><p>Macedonia was the only country to formally progress in the NATO accession process. This question closed as "1" with an end date of 1 April 2019. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-05T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.097Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2070, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 779, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 939, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:50:32.257Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:38.237Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-05T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.131Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2071, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 779, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 939, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:50:45.450Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:38.768Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-05T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.160Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2072, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 779, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 939, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:50:58.488Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:39.455Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-05T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2073, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 779, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 939, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:51:10.970Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:39.917Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-05T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.216Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2074, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 305, "predictions_count": 779, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 939, "question_name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:51:21.982Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:40.466Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 923, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-07-14T19:58:55.839Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 260, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "25%", "description": "Formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country: reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>); receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37356.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>); or entering into Intensified Dialogue (<a href=\"http://www.self.gutenberg.org/articles/eng/Intensified_Dialogue\" target=\"_blank\">Project Gutenberg</a>). Countries will only be counted once.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr><p>Macedonia was the only country to formally progress in the NATO accession process. This question closed as \"1\" with an end date of 1 April 2019. </p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n", "ends_at": "2019-04-01T06:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 939, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:53.458+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:36.351+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 779, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 305, "published_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:58.331Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-05T16:51:21.997Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-18T10:00:58.331-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.980Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/48 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>The Democratic Progressive Party could potentially win control of the both the presidency and the Legislative Yuan after January's general elections. This has broad implications for Taiwan's relationship with China and the United States' foreign policies in Asia (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10484" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = "http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/21-taiwan-elections-china-relations-bush" target = "_blank">Brookings</a>, <a href = "http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/07/do-taiwans-2016-elections-threaten-ties-with-china/" target = "_blank">Global Risk Insights</a>). The election is scheduled for 16 January 2016. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-16T20:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:48:41.097Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 81, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Plurality", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 607, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 48, "question_name": "How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-18T15:54:44.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:28.255Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-16T20:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:47:22.078Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 80, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Majority", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 607, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 48, "question_name": "How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-18T15:54:44.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:27.562Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-16T20:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:50:02.942Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 82, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Not a plurality", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 209, "predictions_count": 607, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 48, "question_name": "How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-18T15:54:44.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:28.894Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 626, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-12-18T14:59:11.774Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 29, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "74%", "description": "<img height=\"1\" width=\"1\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1\"/>The Democratic Progressive Party could potentially win control of the both the presidency and the Legislative Yuan after January's general elections. This has broad implications for Taiwan's relationship with China and the United States' foreign policies in Asia (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10484\" target = \"_blank\">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = \"http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/21-taiwan-elections-china-relations-bush\" target = \"_blank\">Brookings</a>, <a href = \"http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/07/do-taiwans-2016-elections-threaten-ties-with-china/\" target = \"_blank\">Global Risk Insights</a>). The election is scheduled for 16 January 2016.", "ends_at": "2016-01-17T07:59:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 48, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:30.822+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:46:47.935+00:00"}, "name": "How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 607, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 209, "published_at": "2015-09-28T20:13:36.882Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-18T15:54:44.532Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-01-16T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-28T13:13:36.882-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-28T20:13:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/114 | Minsk II required the government of Ukraine and separatist forces to reach an agreement on local elections in separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (<a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-in-full.html" target = "_blank">Telegraph</a>). So far no agreement has been reached, and the Donetsk People's Republic's decision to move ahead with elections on their own in the fall of 2015 nearly derailed the peace process (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-election-rebels-idUSKCN0S01GC20151006#R4340TCZxY4tm3rs.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-backed-rebels-in-ukraine-to-delay-disputed-elections-1444140302" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). Those elections were rescheduled for February of 2016 under pressure from Russia, and separatist controlled areas of Donetsk did not participate in Ukraine's local elections in October and November of 2015 (<a href = "http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/286781.html" target = "_blank">Interfax-Ukraine</a>, <a href = "http://www.novinite.com/articles/171484/Ukraine+Holds+Local+Elections+Except+for+Separatist+Regions" target = "_blank">Novinite</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-local-elections-mariupol-krasnoarmiisk/27398364.html" target = "_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>).
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/415 | The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href = "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp"target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The March meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/961 | In the current 115th United States Congress, 23 of 100 senators are women (<a href = "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cindy-hyde-smith-swearing-us-senate-historic-number/story?id=54343535"target="_blank">ABC News</a>). The number of women filing Senate candidacies ahead of the 2018 midterms could be record-setting (<a href = "https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/2018-midterm-elections-women-candidates-trump"target="_blank">New Yorker</a>, <a href = "http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018#senate"target="_blank">Center for American Women and Politics</a>, <a href = "https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/how-women-could-lose-senate-seats-in-the-latest-year-of-the-woman"target="_blank">Inside Elections</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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The question closed as g) 25 or more with a closing date 3 January 2019.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:48.931Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2161, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "19 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:11.565Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:14.431Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:48.985Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2162, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "20", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:22.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:15.122Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2163, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "21", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:32:50.376Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:16.214Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.138Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2164, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "22", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:32:07.725Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:16.644Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.224Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2165, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "23", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:31:09.416Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:17.487Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.296Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2166, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "24", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:30:10.582Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:17.987Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-03T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.388Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2167, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "25 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 308, "predictions_count": 925, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 961, "question_name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:08.227Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:18.680Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1191, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-12-30T09:29:14.285Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "In the current 115th United States Congress, 23 of 100 senators are women (<a href = \"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cindy-hyde-smith-swearing-us-senate-historic-number/story?id=54343535\"target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). The number of women filing Senate candidacies ahead of the 2018 midterms could be record-setting (<a href = \"https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/2018-midterm-elections-women-candidates-trump\"target=\"_blank\">New Yorker</a>, <a href = \"http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018#senate\"target=\"_blank\">Center for American Women and Politics</a>, <a href = \"https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/how-women-could-lose-senate-seats-in-the-latest-year-of-the-woman\"target=\"_blank\">Inside Elections</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe question closed as g) 25 or more with a closing date 3 January 2019.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-03T07:59:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 961, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:55:58.353+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:23.524+00:00"}, "name": "On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 925, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 308, "published_at": "2018-05-23T16:06:49.646Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:23.006Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-01-02T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-23T10:00:54.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-23T17:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/227 | Raqqa still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp despite increased air strikes by France, Russia, and the US-led coalition (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-islamic-state-idUSKBN0TP0HD20151206" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/16/world/europe/paris-terror-attack.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/09/life-under-isis-raqqa-mosul-giant-prison-syria-iraq" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10450" target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/101" target="_blank">Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77" target="_blank">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a>
<hr>
This question was closed as "Not before 1 June 2017" with an end date of 31 May 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-06-21T16:57:55.376Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 419, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Before 1 December 2016", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 395, "predictions_count": 2001, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 227, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-02T18:03:34.159Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:10.024Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-06-21T16:57:55.417Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 420, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 395, "predictions_count": 2001, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 227, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-02T18:01:30.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:10.447Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-06-21T16:57:55.451Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 421, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Not before 1 June 2017", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 395, "predictions_count": 2001, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 227, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-02T17:59:41.316Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:11.090Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2083, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-07-04T20:25:03.312Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 331, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "Raqqa still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp despite increased air strikes by France, Russia, and the US-led coalition (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-islamic-state-idUSKBN0TP0HD20151206\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/16/world/europe/paris-terror-attack.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/09/life-under-isis-raqqa-mosul-giant-prison-syria-iraq\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10450\" target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/101\" target=\"_blank\">Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77\" target=\"_blank\">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106\" target=\"_blank\">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThis question was closed as \"Not before 1 June 2017\" with an end date of 31 May 2017. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-06-01T06:59:12.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 227, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:09:00.360+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:22.477+00:00"}, "name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2001, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 395, "published_at": "2016-06-21T16:57:55.611Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-02T18:03:34.244Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-06-21T10:00:12.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-06-21T17:00:12.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/841 | Good Judgment Open's Global Judgment Challenge, sponsored by CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS," will be featured on the program twice, on 31 December 2017 and 7 January 2018 (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/23-global-judgment-challenge" target="_blank">Global Judgment Challenge</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/shows/fareed-zakaria-gps" target="_blank">Fareed Zakaria GPS</a>). "Fareed Zakaria GPS" was the second most popular cable news show on weekends in Q3 2017 (<a href="http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/q3-2017-ratings-cnn-has-most-watched-third-quarter-ever/342731" target="_blank">AdWeek</a>)
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 forecasters joined. This question closed as “More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000” with an end date of 8 January 2018."
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-29T16:51:41.324Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1867, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Fewer than 1,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 275, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 841, "question_name": "How many forecasters will join the <i>Global Judgment Challenge</i> on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018? 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", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-20T19:02:46.188Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:08.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-29T16:51:41.372Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1869, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000 ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 275, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 841, "question_name": "How many forecasters will join the <i>Global Judgment Challenge</i> on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-20T19:02:43.010Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:09.006Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-29T16:51:41.398Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1870, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 275, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 841, "question_name": "How many forecasters will join the <i>Global Judgment Challenge</i> on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-20T19:02:36.806Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:09.706Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-29T16:51:41.423Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1871, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 4,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 275, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 841, "question_name": "How many forecasters will join the <i>Global Judgment Challenge</i> on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-20T19:02:39.802Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:10.087Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 357, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-31T19:04:38.164Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "22%", "description": "Good Judgment Open's Global Judgment Challenge, sponsored by CNN's \"Fareed Zakaria GPS,\" will be featured on the program twice, on 31 December 2017 and 7 January 2018 (<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/23-global-judgment-challenge\" target=\"_blank\">Global Judgment Challenge</a>, <a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/shows/fareed-zakaria-gps\" target=\"_blank\">Fareed Zakaria GPS</a>). \"Fareed Zakaria GPS\" was the second most popular cable news show on weekends in Q3 2017 (<a href=\"http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/q3-2017-ratings-cnn-has-most-watched-third-quarter-ever/342731\" target=\"_blank\">AdWeek</a>)\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nMore than 2,000 but less than 3,000 forecasters joined. This question closed as \u201cMore than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000\u201d with an end date of 8 January 2018.\"\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-08T07:59:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 841, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:23.087+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:33.477+00:00"}, "name": "How many forecasters will join the <i>Global Judgment Challenge</i> on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 275, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 114, "published_at": "2017-12-29T16:51:41.500Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-20T19:02:49.569Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-01-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-29T09:00:15.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-29T17:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:23.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/296 | Localities throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip were scheduled to hold their first municipal elections since 2012 in October (<a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5346ea82704b4bb7b580e4ff5b99c68a/rivals-hamas-fatah-gear-first-election-2006" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>). Those elections were delayed in early September by a court ruling, and the length of that delay remains unclear (<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/palestinian-local-polls-delayed-months-161004162827564.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/96c350c912114e4aba875b302adada4d/palestinian-court-postpones-next-months-municipal-election" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/world/middleeast/palestinian-municipal-elections.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266" target="_blank">Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/293" target="_blank">Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018?</a>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with end date of 30 April 2017. Elections are scheduled to be held 13 May (<a href = "http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Palestinian-Authority-sets-new-date-for-municipal-elections-480135"target="_blank">The Jerusalem Post</a> ).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-30T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-11T16:05:56.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 579, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, in the West Bank and Gaza", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 655, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 296, "question_name": "Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:29:44.113Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:17.928Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-30T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-11T16:05:56.566Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 580, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, in the West Bank only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 655, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 296, "question_name": "Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:28:55.074Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:18.100Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-30T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-11T16:05:56.730Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 581, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 655, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 296, "question_name": "Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:27:46.056Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:18.381Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 658, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-10-12T16:49:07.453Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 200, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Localities throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip were scheduled to hold their first municipal elections since 2012 in October (<a href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5346ea82704b4bb7b580e4ff5b99c68a/rivals-hamas-fatah-gear-first-election-2006\" target=\"_blank\">Associated Press</a>). Those elections were delayed in early September by a court ruling, and the length of that delay remains unclear (<a href=\"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/palestinian-local-polls-delayed-months-161004162827564.html\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/96c350c912114e4aba875b302adada4d/palestinian-court-postpones-next-months-municipal-election\" target=\"_blank\">Associated Press</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/world/middleeast/palestinian-municipal-elections.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions \r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266\" target=\"_blank\">Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/293\" target=\"_blank\">Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018?</a>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThis question was closed as \"no\" with end date of 30 April 2017. Elections are scheduled to be held 13 May (<a href = \"http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Palestinian-Authority-sets-new-date-for-municipal-elections-480135\"target=\"_blank\">The Jerusalem Post</a> ). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-05-01T06:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 296, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:14:18.512+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:21.307+00:00"}, "name": "Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 655, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 191, "published_at": "2016-10-11T16:05:56.968Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:29:44.185Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-04-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-10-11T10:00:56.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-10-11T17:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/786 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:14:23.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:55.482Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1735, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 7.3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 786, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Mexico (MEX) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:18:16.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:10.799Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:14:23.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:55.553Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1736, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7.3 and 7.5, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 786, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Mexico (MEX) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:18:02.650Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:11.385Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:14:23.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:55.601Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1737, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 7.5", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 786, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Mexico (MEX) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:17:48.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:11.892Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 166, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = \"https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T04:59:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 786, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:31.041+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:12.028+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Mexico (MEX) in December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 154, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 70, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:48:19.992Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:18:16.281Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/441 | <b>March through August gross revenues exceeded 2016 revenues by 10% or more. This question closed with an answer of "d) all 6 months", with and end date of 1 September 2017. (<a href="http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2017/index.html" target="_blank">Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau</a>)</b>
Gaming revenues fell precipitously in 2014 and 2015 as President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign deterred Chinese high-rollers from flaunting their wealth in Macau's casinos, but have started to climb again (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12623/macaus-low-rollers?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-26/macau-lifted-by-chinese-high-rollers-flush-from-land-factories"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/a-safe-bet-macau-renaissance-after-mass-market-win"target="_blank">Business Times</a>). The question will be resolved according to official data provided by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau <a href = "http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2017/index.html"target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T15:50:10.197Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 886, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0-1 months", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 469, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 441, "question_name": "From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-07T02:37:33.595Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.986Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T15:50:10.239Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 887, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2-3 months", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 469, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 441, "question_name": "From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-07T02:37:29.095Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:05.099Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T15:50:10.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 888, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4-5 months", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 469, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 441, "question_name": "From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-07T02:37:23.397Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:05.239Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-21T15:50:10.290Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 889, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "All 6 months", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 469, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 441, "question_name": "From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-07T02:37:16.921Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:05.401Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 509, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-07-07T23:18:14.551Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 55, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "66%", "description": "<b>March through August gross revenues exceeded 2016 revenues by 10% or more. This question closed with an answer of \"d) all 6 months\", with and end date of 1 September 2017. (<a href=\"http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2017/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau</a>)</b>\r\n\r\nGaming revenues fell precipitously in 2014 and 2015 as President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign deterred Chinese high-rollers from flaunting their wealth in Macau's casinos, but have started to climb again (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12623/macaus-low-rollers?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-26/macau-lifted-by-chinese-high-rollers-flush-from-land-factories\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/a-safe-bet-macau-renaissance-after-mass-market-win\"target=\"_blank\">Business Times</a>). The question will be resolved according to official data provided by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau <a href = \"http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2017/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 441, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:14.974+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:55.655+00:00"}, "name": "From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 469, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 189, "published_at": "2017-03-21T15:50:10.470Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-07T02:37:33.608Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-21T10:00:22.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-21T17:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/943 | This question will be resolved using the closing price reported by <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdbrl:cur"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> for 15 June 2018.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate was 3.7296. This question closed as "c) More than 3.6000" with an end date of 15 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-15T17:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T15:29:20.064Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2082, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 3.3000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 943, "question_name": "What will the closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 15 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-19T16:15:52.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:43.879Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-15T17:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T15:29:20.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2083, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 3.3000 and 3.6000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 943, "question_name": "What will the closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 15 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-19T16:15:50.983Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:44.117Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-15T17:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T15:29:20.201Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2084, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 3.6000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 943, "question_name": "What will the closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 15 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-19T16:15:49.182Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:44.399Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 186, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-11T14:15:31.552Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 35, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "5%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the closing price reported by <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdbrl:cur\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> for 15 June 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate was 3.7296. This question closed as \"c) More than 3.6000\" with an end date of 15 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-16T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 943, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:36.779+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:14.304+00:00"}, "name": "What will the closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 15 June 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 185, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2018-05-09T15:29:20.428Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-19T16:15:52.707Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:36.932Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/57 | This question has been closed under answer option "a)0" with an end date of 5 August 2016. Russia extended its food embargo through the end of 2017 (<a href="https://www.rt.com/business/348916-putin-prolongs-food-embargo/" target="_blank">RT</a>, <a href="http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160629/1042173775/embargo-putin-west.html" target="_blank">Sputnik International</a>). While there have been modifications to the embargo, notably to allow the importation of certain products for use in baby food (<a href="http://rbth.com/business/2016/06/01/russia-eases-its-food-embargo_599381" target="_blank">Russia Beyond the Headlines</a>, <a href="http://tass.ru/en/economy/879570" target="_blank">Tass</a>), all of the embargoed countries remain on the list.
Russia imposed an embargo on food imports from the US, EU member states, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August 2014 as retaliation for western sanctions, later adding Iceland, Albania, Montenegro, and Liechtenstein to the list (<a href = "http://news.yahoo.com/russia-slaps-food-embargo-more-european-countries-150602238.html" target = "_blank">Yahoo News</a>). On 16 September 2015, Russia lifted the embargo on specialized products for sports nutrition (<a href = "https://latestnewsresource.com/en/news/medvedev-snjal-produktovoe-embargo-so-sportivnogo-pitanija" target = "_blank">LatestNewsResource</a>), but most of the embargo remains in place for all affected countries. If new countries are added to the list before the question expires, their subsequent removal will count.
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11">FAQ</a>.
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Russia extended its food embargo through the end of 2017 (<a href=\"https://www.rt.com/business/348916-putin-prolongs-food-embargo/\" target=\"_blank\">RT</a>, <a href=\"http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160629/1042173775/embargo-putin-west.html\" target=\"_blank\">Sputnik International</a>). While there have been modifications to the embargo, notably to allow the importation of certain products for use in baby food (<a href=\"http://rbth.com/business/2016/06/01/russia-eases-its-food-embargo_599381\" target=\"_blank\">Russia Beyond the Headlines</a>, <a href=\"http://tass.ru/en/economy/879570\" target=\"_blank\">Tass</a>), all of the embargoed countries remain on the list. \r\n\r\nRussia imposed an embargo on food imports from the US, EU member states, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August 2014 as retaliation for western sanctions, later adding Iceland, Albania, Montenegro, and Liechtenstein to the list (<a href = \"http://news.yahoo.com/russia-slaps-food-embargo-more-european-countries-150602238.html\" target = \"_blank\">Yahoo News</a>). On 16 September 2015, Russia lifted the embargo on specialized products for sports nutrition (<a href = \"https://latestnewsresource.com/en/news/medvedev-snjal-produktovoe-embargo-so-sportivnogo-pitanija\" target = \"_blank\">LatestNewsResource</a>), but most of the embargo remains in place for all affected countries. If new countries are added to the list before the question expires, their subsequent removal will count.\r\n\r\nThis question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/416 | Some worry the value of the dollar may fall in coming months as the Trump administration focuses on restructuring trade agreements (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN15M0YD"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
The end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018 was $1.25. This question closed as "e) More than $1.20 with an end date of 15 February 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-15T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:03.939Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 817, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $0.90", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 567, "predictions_count": 2089, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 416, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:12:30.322Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:40.367Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-15T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:03.959Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 818, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $0.90 and $1.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 567, "predictions_count": 2089, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 416, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:12:57.093Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:40.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-15T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:03.974Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 819, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $1.10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 567, "predictions_count": 2089, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 416, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:11:36.084Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:40.773Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-15T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:03.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 820, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 567, "predictions_count": 2089, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 416, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:13:22.913Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:40.979Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-15T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:04.007Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 821, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.20", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 567, "predictions_count": 2089, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 416, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:12:02.242Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:41.155Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2128, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-27T04:40:41.198Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 19, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "Some worry the value of the dollar may fall in coming months as the Trump administration focuses on restructuring trade agreements (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN15M0YD\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376\" target = \"_blank\"> the likelyhood of a state soda tax</a> or on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377\"target = \"_blank\"> the U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018 was $1.25. This question closed as \"e) More than $1.20 with an end date of 15 February 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-02-15T07:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 416, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:24.066+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:56.744+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2089, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 567, "published_at": "2017-02-16T16:59:04.077Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-21T18:13:22.924Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-02-14T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-16T10:00:59.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-16T18:00:59.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/923 | The special election will take place on 7 August 2018, with primary elections occurring in May (<a href = "https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/ohio-12-election-ratings-change"target="_blank">Roll Call</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/why-republicans-are-favored-in-arizona-and-ohio-special-elections.html"target="_blanK">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2018"target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
<a href = "https://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/pdf/479AD5A9-B8E7-781F-A8D1366FDFCF4732.pdf"target="_blank">Troy Balderson (Republican)</a> won Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election. This question closed as "Republican Party" with an end date of 7 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:16:35.346Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2026, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Republican Party", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 103, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 923, "question_name": "Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T14:08:37.671Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:56.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:16:35.375Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2027, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Democratic Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 103, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 923, "question_name": "Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T14:09:06.685Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:57.349Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:16:35.394Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2028, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Other", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 103, "predictions_count": 246, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 923, "question_name": "Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T14:09:35.960Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:58.101Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 258, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-04-04T17:11:17.294Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 125, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The special election will take place on 7 August 2018, with primary elections occurring in May (<a href = \"https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/ohio-12-election-ratings-change\"target=\"_blank\">Roll Call</a>, <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/why-republicans-are-favored-in-arizona-and-ohio-special-elections.html\"target=\"_blanK\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2018\"target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<a href = \"https://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/pdf/479AD5A9-B8E7-781F-A8D1366FDFCF4732.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">Troy Balderson (Republican)</a> won Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election. This question closed as \"Republican Party\" with an end date of 7 August 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-08-07T18:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 923, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:54.179+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:25.387+00:00"}, "name": "Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 246, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 103, "published_at": "2018-04-04T16:16:35.460Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-27T14:09:36.119Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-08-07T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-04T10:00:35.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-04T17:00:35.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/267 | Nkurunziza survived a coup attempt in May 2015 before winning a second term as president in a controversial election (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-burundi-election-results-idUSKCN0PY1TN20150724" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The armed conflict aimed at toppling Burundi's government has intensified since then (<a href="http://www.dw.com/en/burundi-the-chronology-of-a-crisis/g-19416404" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="http://www.crisis.acleddata.com/category/burundi/" target="_blank">ACLED</a>). In the event that Nkurunziza reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Nkurunziza returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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Pierre Nkurunziza remains president of Burundi. This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:22:54.971Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 505, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 1135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 267, "question_name": "When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:11:37.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:51.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:22:54.991Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 506, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 1135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 267, "question_name": "When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:10:13.598Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:51.685Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:22:55.008Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 507, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 1135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 267, "question_name": "When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:13:01.541Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:51.936Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-23T16:22:55.026Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 508, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 1135, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 267, "question_name": "When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:14:20.194Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:52.170Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1151, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-27T09:18:22.052Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 491, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "Nkurunziza survived a coup attempt in May 2015 before winning a second term as president in a controversial election (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-burundi-election-results-idUSKCN0PY1TN20150724\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The armed conflict aimed at toppling Burundi's government has intensified since then (<a href=\"http://www.dw.com/en/burundi-the-chronology-of-a-crisis/g-19416404\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href=\"http://www.crisis.acleddata.com/category/burundi/\" target=\"_blank\">ACLED</a>). In the event that Nkurunziza reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Nkurunziza returns in the interim, the question will remain open.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/182\" target=\"_blank\">Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/197\" target=\"_blank\">Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/250\" target=\"_blank\">Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?</a>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nPierre Nkurunziza remains president of Burundi. This question closed as \"Not before 1 January 2018\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:43.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 267, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:47.423+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:10.378+00:00"}, "name": "When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1135, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 159, "published_at": "2016-08-23T16:22:55.075Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:14:20.527Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-23T10:00:43.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-23T17:00:43.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/403 |
The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>.
This question was closed on "O.J.: Made in America (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.280Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 781, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fire at Sea", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 403, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:41:05.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:31.540Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.296Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 782, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "I Am Not Your Negro", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 403, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:41:21.522Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:31.766Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 783, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Life, Animated", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 403, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:41:41.132Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:32.154Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.336Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 784, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "O.J.: Made in America", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 403, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:41:59.529Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:32.500Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.355Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 785, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "13th", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 403, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:42:15.953Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:32.720Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 144, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-27T20:35:27.498Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\nThe <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"O.J.: Made in America (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 403, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:25:33.509+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:54.733+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 144, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 74, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:19:49.423Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:42:16.136Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:22.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/823 | This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = "http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics"target="_blank">London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T17:30:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-18T15:12:24.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1849, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $1,200", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 195, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 823, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:23.436Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:00.631Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T17:30:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-18T15:12:24.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1848, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,200 and $1,230, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 195, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 823, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:25.716Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:00.172Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T17:30:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-18T15:12:24.373Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1847, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,230 but less than $1,255", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 195, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 823, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:27.849Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:57.784Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T17:30:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-18T15:12:24.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1846, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,255 and $1,285, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 195, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 823, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:29.892Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:56.611Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T17:30:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-18T15:12:24.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1845, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,285", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 195, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 823, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:31.895Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:54.762Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 199, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-20T19:03:07.425Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = \"http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics\"target=\"_blank\">London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-27T04:59:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 823, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:34.397+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:40.053+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 195, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 121, "published_at": "2017-12-20T15:06:10.996Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is $1270.40 per resolution instructions."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T21:32:31.906Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-20T09:00:42.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-20T17:00:42.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/897 | The 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 1 April 2018 (<a href = "https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-women/d1"target="_blank">NCAA</a>). The names of the regional champions will be substituted in once known.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question resolved on 1 April, 2018. Notre Dame, a member of the NCAA's Spokane region, won the Division I Women's Basketball Championship.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T15:46:33.948Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1976, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A team from the Albany region", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 897, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:13.763Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:40.437Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T15:46:33.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1977, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A team from the Kansas City region", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 897, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:07.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:40.678Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T15:46:34.007Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1978, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A team from the Spokane region", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 897, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:01.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:40.854Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-04-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T15:46:34.035Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1979, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A team from the Lexington region", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 897, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:41:54.885Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:41.097Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 86, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 1 April 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-women/d1\"target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>). The names of the regional champions will be substituted in once known. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question resolved on 1 April, 2018. Notre Dame, a member of the NCAA's Spokane region, won the Division I Women's Basketball Championship. \r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-04-01T06:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 897, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:32.390+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:18.777+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 86, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2018-03-14T15:46:34.119Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:13.832Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-03-14T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/181 | This question was closed with the correct answer "Fewer than 1,200" with an end date of 31 October 2016. CLB reported that 1,120 strikes or protests occurred during the period in question. (<a href="http://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en" target="_blank">China Labour Bulletin</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Worker protests include all events monitored by CLB including strikes, protests, demonstrations, sit-ins, road blocks, transportation strikes, and events labeled "other." China's slowing economy has led to an increase in labor unrest (<a href = "http://www.clb.org.hk/en/content/strikes-and-protests-china’s-workers-soar-record-heights-2015" target = "_blank">China Labor Bulletin</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-workers-are-fighting-back-as-economic-dream-fades-1450145329" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/strikes-and-workers-protests-multiply-in-china-testing-party-authority/2016/02/24/caba321c-b3c8-11e5-8abc-d09392edc612_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Outcome will be determined by China Labor Bulletin (CLB) in its <a href = "http://strikemap.clb.org.hk/strikes/en" target = "_blank">Strike Map</a>. Select from the drop-down menu the period 2016-5 through 2016-10, and "Any" for location, participants, and industry. The total number of worker protests can be found by looking just below the search box. It is reported as "Results Found" in bold black letters just above the list of sources. Monthly totals are also recorded on the graph. The question will be suspended on 31 October but will be resolved on 30 November to allow CLB to collect and code reports from late October.
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CLB reported that 1,120 strikes or protests occurred during the period in question. (<a href=\"http://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en\" target=\"_blank\">China Labour Bulletin</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nWorker protests include all events monitored by CLB including strikes, protests, demonstrations, sit-ins, road blocks, transportation strikes, and events labeled \"other.\" China's slowing economy has led to an increase in labor unrest (<a href = \"http://www.clb.org.hk/en/content/strikes-and-protests-china\u2019s-workers-soar-record-heights-2015\" target = \"_blank\">China Labor Bulletin</a>, <a href = \"http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-workers-are-fighting-back-as-economic-dream-fades-1450145329\" target = \"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html\" target = \"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/strikes-and-workers-protests-multiply-in-china-testing-party-authority/2016/02/24/caba321c-b3c8-11e5-8abc-d09392edc612_story.html\" target = \"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). Outcome will be determined by China Labor Bulletin (CLB) in its <a href = \"http://strikemap.clb.org.hk/strikes/en\" target = \"_blank\">Strike Map</a>. Select from the drop-down menu the period 2016-5 through 2016-10, and \"Any\" for location, participants, and industry. The total number of worker protests can be found by looking just below the search box. It is reported as \"Results Found\" in bold black letters just above the list of sources. Monthly totals are also recorded on the graph. The question will be suspended on 31 October but will be resolved on 30 November to allow CLB to collect and code reports from late October.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016\" target = \"_blank\">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-01T06:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 181, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:03:45.806+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:02:15.972+00:00"}, "name": "How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 838, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 109, "published_at": "2016-04-19T16:52:36.371Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:29:36.836Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-04-19T10:00:03.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-04-19T17:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/170 | The 2015-2016 NBA finals begin on June 2, 2016. The finals pit the winners of the Eastern and Western conference playoffs against one another in a best-of-7-game series. Golden State and San Antonio are currently the top two teams in the Western Conference, while Cleveland is the top of the Eastern Conference (<a href="http://www.nba.com/standings/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html" target="_blank">NBA</a>). This question will remain open until the final game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time of the previous day. For more information about the format of the NBA playoffs, see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_Playoffs" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>.
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944 |
<p>Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 (<a href="https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/" target="_blank">Adamgrant.net</a>). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 26 February 2021</span>: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.</p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 14 and 18" with a closing date of 30 June 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-30T23:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-23T15:53:24.619Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4859, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 337, "predictions_count": 996, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1944, "question_name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:23.492Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:23.494Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-30T23:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-23T15:53:24.659Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4860, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4 and 8", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 337, "predictions_count": 996, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1944, "question_name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:35.064Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:35.065Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-30T23:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-23T15:53:24.689Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4861, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9 and 13", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 337, "predictions_count": 996, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1944, "question_name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:56.812Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T16:03:56.814Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-30T23:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-23T15:53:24.725Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4862, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 and 18", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 337, "predictions_count": 996, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1944, "question_name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:04:15.459Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T16:04:15.461Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-30T23:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-23T15:53:24.755Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4863, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 18", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 337, "predictions_count": 996, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1944, "question_name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:04:27.748Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T16:04:27.749Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1050, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/\" target=\"_blank\">Adamgrant.net</a>). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 26 February 2021</span>: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.</p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 14 and 18\" with a closing date of 30 June 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-04T07:01:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1944, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:52.527+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:47.770+00:00"}, "name": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 996, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 337, "published_at": "2021-02-24T20:58:45.693Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T16:04:27.759Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-24T13:30:42.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-24T21:30:42.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.186Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2017 |
<p>The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/home-construction-sees-biggest-drop-since-pandemic-hit-heres-why.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/what-goes-up-must-come-down-or-must-it/" target="_blank">Fool</a>, <a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-mae-alters-its-2021-forecasts/" target="_blank">Housing Wire</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-21T16:54:01.816Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5148, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2017, "question_name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:45.589Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:45.590Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-21T16:54:01.840Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5149, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2017, "question_name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:42.725Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:42.726Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-21T16:54:01.870Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5150, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2017, "question_name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:40.138Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:40.139Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-21T16:54:01.893Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5151, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2017, "question_name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:48.229Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:48.230Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-21T16:54:01.917Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5152, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 384, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2017, "question_name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:51.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:51.337Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 388, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-05-21T20:32:16.059Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 164, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/home-construction-sees-biggest-drop-since-pandemic-hit-heres-why.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/what-goes-up-must-come-down-or-must-it/\" target=\"_blank\">Fool</a>, <a href=\"https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-mae-alters-its-2021-forecasts/\" target=\"_blank\">Housing Wire</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-11-01T07:01:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2017, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:13.169+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:29.373+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 384, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 107, "published_at": "2021-05-21T16:56:58.368Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-11-17T17:25:51.347Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-05-21T10:00:15.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-05-21T17:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875 |
<p>While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (<a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf" target="_blank">European Parliament - Briefing</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement" target="_blank">European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)</a>, <a href="https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/" target="_blank">CEPS</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf" target="_blank">Core.ac.uk</a>). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 9 June 2021</span>: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-18T18:32:31.847Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4665, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 284, "predictions_count": 1243, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1875, "question_name": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T22:47:08.362Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T22:47:08.362Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-18T18:32:31.878Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4666, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 284, "predictions_count": 1243, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1875, "question_name": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T22:45:11.177Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T22:45:11.178Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-18T18:32:31.908Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4667, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 284, "predictions_count": 1243, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1875, "question_name": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T22:43:24.903Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-03T22:43:24.904Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1363, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-10T20:11:17.841Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 175, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "54%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (<a href=\"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">European Parliament - Briefing</a>, <a href=\"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement\" target=\"_blank\">European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/\" target=\"_blank\">CEPS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline\" target=\"_blank\">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href=\"https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Core.ac.uk</a>). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 9 June 2021</span>: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.<br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1875, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:45.478+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:08.191+00:00"}, "name": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1243, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 284, "published_at": "2020-12-18T18:44:34.369Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-03T22:47:08.410Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-12-18T11:00:33.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-12-18T19:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.182Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2561 |
<p>Nike's sales, or revenues, have generally recovered from the worst of COVID, except for Greater China (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/nike-nke-earnings-q4-2022-earnings-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.retaildive.com/news/nike-q4-sales-fall-china/626207/" target="_blank">Retail Dive</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Nike's 2023 Annual Report (<a href="https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/?toggle=reports" target="_blank">Nike - Investor Reports</a>). In FY2022, Nike reported total sales of $7,547 million, or $7.547 billion. (<a href="https://s1.q4cdn.com/806093406/files/doc_downloads/2022/399556(1)_27_Nike-Inc._NPS_Combo_Form-10-K_WR.pdf" target="_blank">Nike - 2022 Form 10-K</a>, see page 39 of the report). Nike's FY2023 runs from 1 June 2022 to 31 May 2023, and "Greater China" includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/chinas-battle-with-the-nba-could-hurt-nike.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.895Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7169, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $7.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2561, "question_name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:50.486Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:50.487Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.903Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7170, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2561, "question_name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:50.939Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:50.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.910Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7171, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $7.5 billion but less than $8.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2561, "question_name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:49.930Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:49.931Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.918Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7172, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $8.0 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2561, "question_name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:49.465Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:49.465Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.925Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7173, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $8.5 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2561, "question_name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:51.413Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:51.414Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 70, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-02-15T04:50:27.444Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 107, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "55%", "description": "\r\n <p>Nike's sales, or revenues, have generally recovered from the worst of COVID, except for Greater China (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/nike-nke-earnings-q4-2022-earnings-.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.retaildive.com/news/nike-q4-sales-fall-china/626207/\" target=\"_blank\">Retail Dive</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Nike's 2023 Annual Report (<a href=\"https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/?toggle=reports\" target=\"_blank\">Nike - Investor Reports</a>). In FY2022, Nike reported total sales of $7,547 million, or $7.547 billion. (<a href=\"https://s1.q4cdn.com/806093406/files/doc_downloads/2022/399556(1)_27_Nike-Inc._NPS_Combo_Form-10-K_WR.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Nike - 2022 Form 10-K</a>, see page 39 of the report). Nike's FY2023 runs from 1 June 2022 to 31 May 2023, and \"Greater China\" includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/chinas-battle-with-the-nba-could-hurt-nike.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-06-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2561, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 69, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2022-09-28T13:56:02.987Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-29T21:24:51.420Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-04T10:30:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-04T17:30:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1578 |
<p>Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/" target="_blank">Clean Technica</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2020, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a <a href="https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf" target="_blank">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">The Mack Institute</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh" with a closing date of 1 January 2021. The Mack Institute's analysis for 2020 resulted in an estimated 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries of $144 (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">Mack Institute</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T19:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T15:46:46.488Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3729, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Less than $115 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1578, "question_name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:30.591Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:30.592Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T19:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T15:46:46.517Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3730, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $115 and $130 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1578, "question_name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:33.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:33.709Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T19:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T15:46:46.543Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3731, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1578, "question_name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:37.530Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:37.531Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T19:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T15:46:46.577Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3732, "membership_id": 22, "name": "Between $145 and $160 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1578, "question_name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:24.575Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:24.576Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T19:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T15:46:46.605Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3733, "membership_id": 22, "name": "More than $160 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1578, "question_name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:27.509Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:27.510Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 357, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-03T02:14:43.286Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 273, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href=\"https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/\" target=\"_blank\">Clean Technica</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2020, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a <a href=\"https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" (<a href=\"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\" target=\"_blank\">The Mack Institute</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh\" with a closing date of 1 January 2021. The Mack Institute's analysis for 2020 resulted in an estimated 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries of $144 (<a href=\"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\" target=\"_blank\">Mack Institute</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T22:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1578, "image": null, "membership_id": 22, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:41.971+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:28.020+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:00:39.999+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T02:55:49.491+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 353, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2020-04-02T15:50:02.671Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-14T20:43:37.542Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-02T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-02T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.132Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1720 |
<p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:12:57.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4217, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1720, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T21:40:47.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.400Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:12:57.603Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4218, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1720, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T21:40:40.134Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.478Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:12:57.622Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4219, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 314, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1720, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T21:40:43.510Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:58.587Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 328, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-17T17:29:03.165Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 78, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1720, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:51.221+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:25.360+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:02:45.299+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:59:01.503+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 314, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 68, "published_at": "2020-08-04T16:57:02.759Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T21:40:47.427Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-04T10:00:10.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-04T17:00:10.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2321 |
<p>
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 26-27 July 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher" with a closing date of 27 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:08.419Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:51:15.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6182, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 122, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2321, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 July 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:09.569Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:09.570Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:08.419Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:51:15.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6183, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 122, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2321, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 July 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:10.763Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:10.764Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:08.419Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:51:15.972Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6184, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 122, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2321, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 July 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 June 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:11.659Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:11.660Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 122, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-03-18T17:27:46.909Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 131, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>\r\n The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 26-27 July 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher\" with a closing date of 27 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-27T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2321, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 27 July 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 June 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 122, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 55, "published_at": "2022-03-18T15:38:35.649Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-27T21:18:11.667Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-07-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2697 |
<p>Oil prices have fallen from historic highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the Biden administration is pushing for more domestic production (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/biden-administration-strategic-petroleum-reserve" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-12-19/u-s-poised-to-become-net-exporter-of-crude-oil-in-2023" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shale-oil-wraps-up-an-underwhelming-year-girds-for-lower-growth-1" target="_blank">NASDAQ</a>). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfpus2&f=4" target="_blank">EIA</a>). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023 to count. On 6 December 2022, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023 (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/dec22.pdf" target="_blank">EIA Short-term Energy Outlook - December 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 13,200 thousand b/d" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T23:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T15:21:59.739Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7724, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 12,000 thousand b/d", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 454, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2697, "question_name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:28.103Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:28.103Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T23:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T15:21:59.752Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7725, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b/d, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 454, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2697, "question_name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:52:55.901Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:52:55.902Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T23:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T15:21:59.760Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7726, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b/d", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 454, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2697, "question_name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:34.254Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:34.254Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T23:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T15:21:59.768Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7727, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b/d, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 454, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2697, "question_name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:13.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:13.329Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T23:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T15:21:59.776Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7728, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 13,200 thousand b/d", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 454, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2697, "question_name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:21.515Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:21.516Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 463, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Oil prices have fallen from historic highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the Biden administration is pushing for more domestic production (<a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/biden-administration-strategic-petroleum-reserve\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-12-19/u-s-poised-to-become-net-exporter-of-crude-oil-in-2023\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shale-oil-wraps-up-an-underwhelming-year-girds-for-lower-growth-1\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ</a>). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (<a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfpus2&f=4\" target=\"_blank\">EIA</a>). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023 to count. On 6 December 2022, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/dec22.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">EIA Short-term Energy Outlook - December 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 13,200 thousand b/d\" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-30T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2697, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 454, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 46, "published_at": "2023-01-06T15:31:23.301Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:34.282Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-06T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-06T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2936 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 7 August 2023 (<a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA</a>, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $3.78 but less than $3.90" with a closing date of 7 August 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.675Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8734, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $3.18", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:25.182Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:25.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.683Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8735, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.18 and $3.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:28.522Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:28.522Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.690Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8736, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.30 but less than $3.42", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:30.165Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:30.166Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.697Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8737, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.42 and $3.54, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:31.819Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:31.820Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.703Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8738, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.54 but less than $3.66", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:33.634Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:33.634Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.710Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8739, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $3.66 and $3.78, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:35.348Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:35.348Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.717Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8740, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $3.78 but less than $3.90", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:37.004Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:37.004Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-08-07T12:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-12T18:05:02.723Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8741, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$3.90 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2936, "question_name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:26.913Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:26.914Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 320, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-08-02T13:30:07.203Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "75%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 7 August 2023 (<a href=\"https://gasprices.aaa.com/\" target=\"_blank\">AAA</a>, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $3.78 but less than $3.90\" with a closing date of 7 August 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-08-07T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2936, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 297, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2023-07-16T20:28:25.483Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-08-07T13:21:37.012Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-08-07T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-18T03:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-18T10:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2608 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 21-22 March 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher " with a closing date of 22 March 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-03-22T21:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T14:11:10.727Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7388, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 461, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2608, "question_name": "At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:12.996Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:12.997Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-03-22T21:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T14:11:10.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7389, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 461, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2608, "question_name": "At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:19.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:19.696Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-03-22T21:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T14:11:10.751Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7390, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 461, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2608, "question_name": "At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:16.424Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:16.424Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 476, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-26T18:26:03.603Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 86, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "38%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 21-22 March 2023.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher \" with a closing date of 22 March 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-03-22T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2608, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 461, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2022-11-04T15:49:46.957Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-22T21:05:19.704Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-03-22T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-04T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-04T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960 |
<p>As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (<a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 19.0 million" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T09:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-12T14:34:15.611Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4935, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1960, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:10:29.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:10:29.535Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T09:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-12T14:34:15.641Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4936, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1960, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:11:04.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:11:04.368Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T09:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-12T14:34:15.663Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4937, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1960, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:11:35.812Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:11:35.822Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T09:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-12T14:34:15.684Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4938, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1960, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:55.750Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:55.781Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T09:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-12T14:34:15.705Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4939, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 19.0 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 280, "predictions_count": 1146, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1960, "question_name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:06.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:12:06.943Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1235, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-24T23:24:04.010Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 109, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "10%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (<a href=\"https://covid19.who.int/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 19.0 million\" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-07-31T07:01:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1960, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:29.754+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:30.955+00:00"}, "name": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1146, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 280, "published_at": "2021-03-12T17:49:45.023Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:13:55.863Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-11T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-03-12T10:00:34.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-03-12T18:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2037 | <p>The women’s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 (<a href="https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/football-schedule" target="_blank">Olympics</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Another country" with a closing date of 6 August 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.639Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5257, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Great Britain", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:27:45.633Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:27:45.635Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.686Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5258, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Japan", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:06.384Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:06.390Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.727Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5259, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Netherlands", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:29.917Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:29.919Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.769Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5260, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "United States", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:53.447Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:28:53.448Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.811Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5261, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another country", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:29:12.293Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:29:12.294Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-06T16:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T15:46:26.852Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5262, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No gold medal will be awarded for this event", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 126, "predictions_count": 349, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2037, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:29:28.497Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T16:29:28.499Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 358, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-08-02T10:53:20.245Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "93%", "description": "<p>The women\u2019s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 (<a href=\"https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/football-schedule\" target=\"_blank\">Olympics</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Another country\" with a closing date of 6 August 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-08-06T07:01:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2037, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:25.585+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:03.954+00:00"}, "name": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 349, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 126, "published_at": "2021-06-11T16:15:26.217Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T16:29:28.517Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-08-06T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-11T10:00:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-11T17:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.186Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3004 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (<a href="https://www.nfl.com/standings/" target="_blank">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Buffalo Bills" with a closing date of 7 January 2024.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-08T04:15:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:38:46.644Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9073, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Buffalo Bills", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3004, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-08T15:05:20.223Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T15:05:20.223Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-08T04:15:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:38:46.651Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9074, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Miami Dolphins", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3004, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:42.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:42.556Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-08T04:15:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:38:46.670Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9075, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New England Patriots", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3004, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:34.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:34.329Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-08T04:15:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:38:46.678Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9076, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New York Jets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3004, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:05.859Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:05.860Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 227, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2024-01-02T18:26:37.630Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "96%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (<a href=\"https://www.nfl.com/standings/\" target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Buffalo Bills\" with a closing date of 7 January 2024.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-07T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3004, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 227, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2023-09-01T15:19:20.048Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-08T15:06:42.612Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T15:09:07.566Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2752 |
<p>Despite rising interest rates and recession fears, US job openings in December 2022 rose to over 11 million (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-01/u-s-job-openings-unexpectedly-increase-in-december" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using March 2023 BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in May 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL" target="_blank">FRED</a>). As of 1 February 2023, the number of nonfarm job openings reported for March 2022 was 11,855 thousand, or 11.855 million.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.656Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7905, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 9.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:20.250Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:20.251Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.664Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7906, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:17.078Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:17.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.672Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7907, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.2 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:15.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:15.447Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.679Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7908, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10.2 million and 10.8 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:17.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:17.907Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.686Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7909, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 10.8 million but fewer than 11.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:18.667Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:18.668Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.694Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7910, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 11.4 million and 12.0 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:19.409Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:19.409Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:19:25.702Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7911, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 12.0 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2752, "question_name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:21.031Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:21.032Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 80, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Despite rising interest rates and recession fears, US job openings in December 2022 rose to over 11 million (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-01/u-s-job-openings-unexpectedly-increase-in-december\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using March 2023 BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in May 2023 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). As of 1 February 2023, the number of nonfarm job openings reported for March 2022 was 11,855 thousand, or 11.855 million.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2752, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 78, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 36, "published_at": "2023-02-03T17:16:30.514Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-02T14:25:21.040Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-02-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-02-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T20:56:38.100Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917 |
<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 16 June 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-16T21:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-29T14:36:56.114Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4775, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1917, "question_name": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:43.883Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:43.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-16T21:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-29T14:36:56.144Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4776, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1917, "question_name": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:47.478Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:47.480Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-16T21:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-29T14:36:56.173Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4777, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1917, "question_name": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:50.755Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:50.756Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 154, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-29T18:18:29.718Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 16 June 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-06-16T07:01:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1917, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:13.387+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:50.401+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 153, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 81, "published_at": "2021-01-29T14:36:56.303Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-16T21:52:50.775Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-06-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-29T10:00:02.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-29T18:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913 |
<p>The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" (<a href="https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate" target="_blank">COVID Act Now - Glossary</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from <a href="https://covidactnow.org" target="_blank">covidactnow.org</a> at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "29 or more" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:57.938Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4760, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "7 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 748, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1913, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:21.625Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:21.627Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:57.966Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4761, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8 and 14", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 748, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1913, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:39.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:39.394Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:57.992Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4762, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15 and 21", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 748, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1913, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:59.631Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-31T22:17:59.633Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:58.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4763, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 22 and 28", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 748, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1913, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:18:18.514Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-31T22:18:18.516Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-31T21:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:58.048Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4764, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "29 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 748, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1913, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:18:38.696Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-31T22:18:38.699Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 783, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-28T15:21:27.643Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "96%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The infection rate (also known as Rt) \"is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect\" (<a href=\"https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate\" target=\"_blank\">COVID Act Now - Glossary</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from <a href=\"https://covidactnow.org\" target=\"_blank\">covidactnow.org</a> at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table \"Compare,\" set to \"States,\" under \"INFECTION RATE.\" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"29 or more\" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-03-31T07:01:06.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1913, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:11.865+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:41.564+00:00"}, "name": "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 748, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 141, "published_at": "2021-01-22T15:44:58.191Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-31T22:18:38.731Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-22T10:00:06.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-22T18:00:06.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2360 |
<p>Palladium prices have surged since Russia, one of the world's largest producers, invaded Ukraine (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russian-nickel-palladium-chromium-exports-a-headache-for-germany/a-61429132" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/palladium-extends-gains-after-suspension-of-two-russian-refiners-2802068" target="_blank">Investing.com</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/palladium.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using "USD-PM" price data (per troy ounce) for 21 October 2022 when first published by the London Metal Exchange (<a href="https://www.lme.com/en/metals/precious/lbma-palladium#Daily+prices" target="_blank">LME</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 21 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.189Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6358, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1600.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:44.141Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:44.142Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.203Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6359, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:27.305Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:27.306Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.211Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6360, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2000.00 but less than 2400.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:35.285Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:35.287Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.220Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6361, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2400.00 and 2800.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:17.497Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:17.498Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.227Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6362, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2800.00 but less than 3200.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:53.133Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:53.134Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.235Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6363, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3200.00 and 3600.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:25:01.522Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:25:01.523Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-22T22:23:59.411Z", "created_at": "2022-04-22T13:18:34.243Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6364, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3600.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 474, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2360, "question_name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:09.001Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-22T22:24:09.002Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 475, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Palladium prices have surged since Russia, one of the world's largest producers, invaded Ukraine (<a href=\"https://www.dw.com/en/russian-nickel-palladium-chromium-exports-a-headache-for-germany/a-61429132\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/palladium-extends-gains-after-suspension-of-two-russian-refiners-2802068\" target=\"_blank\">Investing.com</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/palladium.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using \"USD-PM\" price data (per troy ounce) for 21 October 2022 when first published by the London Metal Exchange (<a href=\"https://www.lme.com/en/metals/precious/lbma-palladium#Daily+prices\" target=\"_blank\">LME</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive\" with a closing date of 21 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-21T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2360, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:15.923+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:22:20.424+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 474, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 72, "published_at": "2022-04-22T15:34:43.961Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-22T22:25:01.538Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3201 | <p>As incumbent Senator Bob Menendez faces federal corruption charges, New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy, Rep. Andy Kim, and others are vying for the Democratic nomination (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/bob-menendez-profile-indictment-corruption-0407745502680965e7ed230745ffa520" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/15/nj-tammy-murphy-senate-00127045" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4367576-andy-kim-new-jersey-senate-lead-bob-menendez-tammy-murphy-internal-poll/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The Democratic primary is scheduled for 4 June 2024 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2024" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:55:41.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "46%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9907, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Andy Kim", "normalized_probability": 0.462, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 27, "probability": 0.462, "probability_formatted": "46%", "question_id": 3201, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:21:14.881Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:55:41.060Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9908, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bob Menendez", "normalized_probability": 0.142, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 27, "probability": 0.142, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 3201, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:21:14.877Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:55:41.067Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "37%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9909, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tammy Murphy", "normalized_probability": 0.365, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 27, "probability": 0.365, "probability_formatted": "37%", "question_id": 3201, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:21:14.872Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T22:55:41.074Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9910, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.031, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 27, "probability": 0.031, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3201, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:21:14.867Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 27, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>As incumbent Senator Bob Menendez faces federal corruption charges, New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy, Rep. Andy Kim, and others are vying for the Democratic nomination (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/bob-menendez-profile-indictment-corruption-0407745502680965e7ed230745ffa520\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/15/nj-tammy-murphy-senate-00127045\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4367576-andy-kim-new-jersey-senate-lead-bob-menendez-tammy-murphy-internal-poll/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The Democratic primary is scheduled for 4 June 2024 (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2024\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-06-04T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": true, "id": 3201, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 27, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 21, "published_at": "2024-01-05T16:51:28.810Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2024-01-05T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:21:17.126Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2954 | <p>Among the candidates is former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was leading in the polls as of May 2023 before being sentenced in July 2023 to more than 10 years in prison for corruption charges (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/panama-s-ex-president-martinelli-sentenced-to-over-10-years-in-prison/7186076.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/mercosur/central-america/panamanian-vice-president-jose-carrizo-secures-prds-presidential-candidacy-for-2024-elections/" target="_blank">Rio Times</a>, <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/latam/2023/06/13/panama-vp-presidential-primaries-2024/" target="_blank">Brazilian Report</a>, <a href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/04/28/martin-torrijos-expresidente-postulacion-panama-orix/" target="_blank">CNN</a> [in Spanish], <a href="https://twitter.com/tepanama/status/1683258692198621185" target="_blank">Twitter</a> [in Spanish]). The next Panamanian presidential election is scheduled for 5 May 2024 (<a href="https://www.idea.int/news-media/news/electoral-tribunal-panama-launched-general-elections-plan-2024-technical-assistance" target="_blank">International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.366Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8820, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jos\u00e9 Isabel Bland\u00f3n", "normalized_probability": 0.032, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.032, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-14T18:51:16.659Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.376Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8821, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jos\u00e9 Gabriel Carrizo", "normalized_probability": 0.091, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.091, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-22T17:34:03.926Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.384Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "55%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8822, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ricardo Martinelli", "normalized_probability": 0.548, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.548, "probability_formatted": "55%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-27T01:29:05.833Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8823, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "R\u00f3mulo Roux", "normalized_probability": 0.09, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.09, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-13T23:29:46.886Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.400Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "11%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8824, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Mart\u00edn Torrijos", "normalized_probability": 0.111, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.111, "probability_formatted": "11%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-17T22:51:37.379Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-07-27T22:02:33.408Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "13%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8825, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.128, "positions_count": 16, "predictions_count": 45, "probability": 0.128, "probability_formatted": "13%", "question_id": 2954, "question_name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-27T01:29:05.840Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 45, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Among the candidates is former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was leading in the polls as of May 2023 before being sentenced in July 2023 to more than 10 years in prison for corruption charges (<a href=\"https://www.voanews.com/a/panama-s-ex-president-martinelli-sentenced-to-over-10-years-in-prison/7186076.html\" target=\"_blank\">Voice of America</a>, <a href=\"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/mercosur/central-america/panamanian-vice-president-jose-carrizo-secures-prds-presidential-candidacy-for-2024-elections/\" target=\"_blank\">Rio Times</a>, <a href=\"https://brazilian.report/liveblog/latam/2023/06/13/panama-vp-presidential-primaries-2024/\" target=\"_blank\">Brazilian Report</a>, <a href=\"https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/04/28/martin-torrijos-expresidente-postulacion-panama-orix/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a> [in Spanish], <a href=\"https://twitter.com/tepanama/status/1683258692198621185\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter</a> [in Spanish]). The next Panamanian presidential election is scheduled for 5 May 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.idea.int/news-media/news/electoral-tribunal-panama-launched-general-elections-plan-2024-technical-assistance\" target=\"_blank\">International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-05-05T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2954, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the 2024 Panamanian presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 45, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 16, "published_at": "2023-07-28T14:31:35.032Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-28T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-28T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.688Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2614 |
<p>Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (<a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1120369/a-harder-landing-for-the-us-economy-now-looks-more-likely" target="_blank">Morningstar</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-2023-congressional-budget-office/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/arks-cathie-wood-issues-open-letter-to-the-fed-saying-it-is-risking-an-economic-bust.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm" target="_blank">BLS</a>). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.094Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7414, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Down by more than 0.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:28.726Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:28.727Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.103Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7415, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:26.042Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:26.042Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.110Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7416, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:06.283Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:06.284Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.117Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7417, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:23:57.253Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:23:57.254Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.125Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7418, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:23.094Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:23.095Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-04T15:31:27.132Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7419, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by 6.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2614, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:31.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:31.447Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 507, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-28T15:05:36.786Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 369, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "\r\n <p>Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1120369/a-harder-landing-for-the-us-economy-now-looks-more-likely\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-2023-congressional-budget-office/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/arks-cathie-wood-issues-open-letter-to-the-fed-saying-it-is-risking-an-economic-bust.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2614, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 502, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2022-11-04T15:50:05.891Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T15:24:31.453Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-04T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-04T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1679 | <p>The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (<a href="https://rt.live" target="_blank">Rt.live</a>). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "24 or fewer" with a closing date of 31 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-31T21:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:40:14.774Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4093, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "24 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 155, "predictions_count": 712, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1679, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:26.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.860Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-31T21:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:40:14.800Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4094, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 25 and 30", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 155, "predictions_count": 712, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1679, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:31.955Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:50.944Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-31T21:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:40:14.838Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4095, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 31 and 36", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 155, "predictions_count": 712, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1679, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:09.037Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.019Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-31T21:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:40:14.862Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4096, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 37 and 42", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 155, "predictions_count": 712, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1679, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:16.320Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.101Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-31T21:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-02T21:40:14.886Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4097, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "43 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 155, "predictions_count": 712, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1679, "question_name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:21.913Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:51.197Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 723, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-20T16:03:10.398Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "83%", "description": " <p>The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (<a href=\"https://rt.live\" target=\"_blank\">Rt.live</a>). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"24 or fewer\" with a closing date of 31 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-08-31T06:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1679, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:35.091+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:09.231+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:06:31.464+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T21:49:20.345+00:00"}, "name": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 712, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 155, "published_at": "2020-07-02T21:56:55.705Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-31T23:31:31.973Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-08-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-02T15:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-02T22:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2019 |
<p>In spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/india-covid-crisis-charts-show-the-severity-of-the-second-wave.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55571793" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (<a href="https://www.mohfw.gov.in/" target="_blank">India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare</a>). Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row and the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; three hundred million (300,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 30 crore (30,00,00,000).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 1 August 2021" with a closing date of 10 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T01:30:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-27T21:16:16.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5154, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 August 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2019, "question_name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:15.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:15.294Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T01:30:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-27T21:16:16.462Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5155, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2019, "question_name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:18.133Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:18.148Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T01:30:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-27T21:16:16.487Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5156, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2019, "question_name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:21.744Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:21.775Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T01:30:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-27T21:16:16.512Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5157, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 October 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2019, "question_name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:24.971Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:24.981Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-11T01:30:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-27T21:16:16.536Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5158, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 November 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 185, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2019, "question_name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:28.092Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:28.109Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 196, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-06-02T07:51:03.359Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 38, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "12%", "description": "\r\n <p>In spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/india-covid-crisis-charts-show-the-severity-of-the-second-wave.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55571793\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (<a href=\"https://www.mohfw.gov.in/\" target=\"_blank\">India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare</a>). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; three hundred million (300,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 30 crore (30,00,00,000).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 1 August 2021\" with a closing date of 10 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-11-01T07:01:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2019, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:03.753+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:32.652+00:00"}, "name": "When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 185, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 59, "published_at": "2021-05-28T16:53:15.597Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-12T16:07:28.128Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-10T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-05-28T10:00:46.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-05-28T17:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902 |
<p>Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (<a href="https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/" target="_blank">RT</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "300 seats or more" with a closing date of 19 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-19T18:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T14:08:15.258Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4738, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 545, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1902, "question_name": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:28.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:28.447Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-19T18:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T14:08:15.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4739, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 545, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1902, "question_name": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:32.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:32.627Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-19T18:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T14:08:15.336Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4740, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "300 seats or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 545, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1902, "question_name": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:37.040Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:37.042Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-19T18:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-15T14:08:15.373Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4741, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 545, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1902, "question_name": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:41.523Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:41.523Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 572, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-15T18:59:37.477Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 247, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267\" target=\"_blank\">Moscow Times</a>). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (<a href=\"https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/\" target=\"_blank\">RT</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"300 seats or more\" with a closing date of 19 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-09-19T07:01:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1902, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:31.885+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:21.392+00:00"}, "name": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 545, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 165, "published_at": "2021-01-15T15:28:19.291Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-22T13:40:41.531Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-15T10:00:34.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-15T18:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.177Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2423 |
<p>The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/battleground-candidates-take-the-field-as-gop-drives-to-flip-the-house-00037952" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/elections/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/07/senate.missouri/" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 218 and 228" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.459Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6633, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 207", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:21.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:21.313Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.467Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6634, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 207 and 217", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:24.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:24.223Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6635, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 218 and 228", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:18.392Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:18.393Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.483Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6636, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 229 and 239", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:15.501Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:15.502Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.490Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6637, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 240 and 250", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:09.912Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:09.913Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:37:22.497Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6638, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 250", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 406, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2423, "question_name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:12.713Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:12.714Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 426, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-11-09T04:44:26.336Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\n <p>The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/battleground-candidates-take-the-field-as-gop-drives-to-flip-the-house-00037952\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/elections/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/07/senate.missouri/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 218 and 228\" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2423, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:28:59.425+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:55.732+00:00"}, "name": "How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 406, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 88, "published_at": "2022-06-24T15:17:05.504Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-21T15:32:24.230Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-24T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3169 | <p>The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - FAQs</a>). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in October 2023 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE" target="_blank">FRED</a>, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for August 2023 was 3.80086%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-15T16:11:59.017Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9795, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.003, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.003, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3169, "question_name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:17.015Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-15T16:11:59.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "11%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9796, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between February 2024 and April 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.1055, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.1055, "probability_formatted": "11%", "question_id": 3169, "question_name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:17.023Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-15T16:11:59.037Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "30%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9797, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between May 2024 and July 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2965, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.2965, "probability_formatted": "30%", "question_id": 3169, "question_name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:17.011Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-15T16:11:59.045Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "24%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9798, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between August 2024 and October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2375, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.2375, "probability_formatted": "24%", "question_id": 3169, "question_name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:17.019Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-15T16:11:59.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "36%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9799, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before November 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.3575, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.3575, "probability_formatted": "36%", "question_id": 3169, "question_name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:17.027Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 101, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - FAQs</a>). The \"core\" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>, click \"Edit Graph\" and change \"Units\" to \"Percent Change from Year Ago\"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for August 2023 was 3.80086%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-11-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": true, "id": 3169, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka \"Core\") next be 2.000% or lower?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 98, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2023-12-15T16:39:37.588Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-15T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-15T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T19:14:19.141Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1556 |
<p>Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $35.00 but less than $45.00" with a closing date of 13 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-13T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-10T16:07:41.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3647, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $25.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 551, "predictions_count": 2231, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1556, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:56:01.132Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:16.075Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-13T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-10T16:07:41.816Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3648, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 551, "predictions_count": 2231, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1556, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:54:39.155Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:16.210Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-13T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-10T16:07:41.842Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3649, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $35.00 but less than $45.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 551, "predictions_count": 2231, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1556, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:54:59.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:10:54.155Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-13T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-10T16:07:41.868Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3650, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 551, "predictions_count": 2231, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1556, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:55:23.283Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-07T22:10:54.225Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-08-13T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-10T16:07:41.895Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3651, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $55.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 551, "predictions_count": 2231, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1556, "question_name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:55:43.936Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:16.576Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2280, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-06-12T22:31:18.537Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 61, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "61%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00\" with a closing date of 13 August 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>", "ends_at": "2020-08-13T06:59:43.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1556, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:22:41.782+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:18.693+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T21:30:47.226+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:27:06.960+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2231, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 551, "published_at": "2020-03-10T16:43:21.590Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-08-13T22:56:01.146Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-08-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-10T10:00:43.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-10T17:00:43.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1999 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 May 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.860Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5099, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 170,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:07.372Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:07.373Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.885Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5100, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:24.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:24.223Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.910Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5101, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:30.992Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:30.994Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.935Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5102, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:37.231Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:37.234Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5103, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:50.657Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:50.658Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:06.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5104, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:43.401Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:43.402Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:39:07.012Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5105, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 220,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1999, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:54.995Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:40:54.997Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople with at least One Dose\u201d (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 31 May 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-05-31T07:01:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1999, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:27.345+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:50.164+00:00"}, "name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 181, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 42, "published_at": "2021-05-05T17:27:37.616Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:41:50.692Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-05-05T11:00:24.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-05-05T18:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2983 | <p>Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retail-sales.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/retail-sales-inflation-economy-spending-f68c3a6b3f749fe8038dfbc357bed9a7" target="_blank">AP</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS" target="_blank">FRED</a>). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.781Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8953, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Down by more than 0.8%", "normalized_probability": 0.0244, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.0244, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-28T15:46:24.821Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.798Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8954, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.1388, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.1388, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T16:24:30.428Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.814Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "67%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8955, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%", "normalized_probability": 0.6706, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.6706, "probability_formatted": "67%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T16:24:30.435Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.826Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8956, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%", "normalized_probability": 0.1388, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.1388, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T16:24:30.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.834Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8957, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%", "normalized_probability": 0.0238, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.0238, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-28T15:46:24.825Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-17T22:06:23.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8958, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Up by 2.4% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0038, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 165, "probability": 0.0038, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2983, "question_name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-28T15:46:24.809Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 166, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retail-sales.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/retail-sales-inflation-economy-spending-f68c3a6b3f749fe8038dfbc357bed9a7\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2983, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 165, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2023-08-18T15:03:55.460Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:14.887Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3073 | <p>Prime Minister Netanyahu, who was already facing domestic political backlash on proposed changes to the country's judiciary, is facing blame for the early October attacks in southern Israel that reportedly killed at least 1,400 people in the country (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas/?id=103804516" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/netanyahu-haaretz-israel-gaza-blame-attack-1832963" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231012-56-israelis-believe-netanyahu-should-resign-at-end-of-conflict-with-palestine-poll/" target="_blank">Middle East Monitor</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:58:32.866Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "4%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9351, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 19 February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0383, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 251, "probability": 0.0383, "probability_formatted": "4%", "question_id": 3073, "question_name": "When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T05:11:58.244Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:58:32.875Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "23%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9352, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 19 February 2024 and 19 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2256, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 251, "probability": 0.2256, "probability_formatted": "23%", "question_id": 3073, "question_name": "When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T05:11:58.250Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:58:32.882Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "26%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9353, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 20 June 2024 and 19 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2575, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 251, "probability": 0.2575, "probability_formatted": "26%", "question_id": 3073, "question_name": "When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T05:11:58.238Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:58:32.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "48%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9354, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 20 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.4786, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 251, "probability": 0.4786, "probability_formatted": "48%", "question_id": 3073, "question_name": "When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T05:11:58.231Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 255, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Prime Minister Netanyahu, who was already facing domestic political backlash on proposed changes to the country's judiciary, is facing blame for the early October attacks in southern Israel that reportedly killed at least 1,400 people in the country (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas/?id=103804516\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/netanyahu-haaretz-israel-gaza-blame-attack-1832963\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>, <a href=\"https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231012-56-israelis-believe-netanyahu-should-resign-at-end-of-conflict-with-palestine-poll/\" target=\"_blank\">Middle East Monitor</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-20T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3073, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 251, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 90, "published_at": "2023-10-20T15:29:18.683Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-20T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-20T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T05:12:01.122Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3087 |
<p>Israeli forces are building in the north of the Gaza Strip as of late October 2023 (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-forces-make-major-advance-toward-gaza-city/ar-AA1j54p8" target="_blank">MSN</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-28/israel-presses-ground-campaign-against-hamas-in-second-stage-of-gaza-war" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Israel asserts that Hamas is using the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City as a command center (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-27/israeli-military-says-hamas-hiding-tunnels-operations-centres-in-gaza-hospital" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/28/exp-hamas-al-shifa-hospital-vo-sot-102812aseg2-cnni-world.cnn" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of "Israel's Operation in Gaza" and open source reporting (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The location of the city block including Al-Shifa hospital may be pulled up using the following coordinates: (31°31′27″N 34°26′39″E), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the coordinates in the parentheses. Per Google Maps, the block is bound by the following roads: Abu Baker Al-Razi, Ibn Sina, Shifa-Ezz Eldine Al-Qassam, and Ahmed Abd Al-Azez (<a href="https://maps.app.goo.gl/Nxz3bPT2Fk9XEuw48" target="_blank">Google Maps</a>). Whether the structures on the block are damaged or destroyed is immaterial. ISW designating the block with "Reported Israeli Clearing Operations" alone would not count without corroboration as to control of the location. If ISW changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023" with a closing date of 16 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.666Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9401, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 14 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:23.045Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:23.045Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.675Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9402, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:25.516Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:25.516Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.683Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9403, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 December 2023 and 20 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:21.696Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:21.697Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.691Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9404, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 21 December 2023 and 12 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:20.445Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:20.446Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.699Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9405, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 13 January 2024 and 8 February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:24.248Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:24.249Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.707Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9406, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 9 February 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3087, "question_name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:26.751Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:26.751Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 186, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-13T07:10:46.889Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "75%", "description": "\r\n <p>Israeli forces are building in the north of the Gaza Strip as of late October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-forces-make-major-advance-toward-gaza-city/ar-AA1j54p8\" target=\"_blank\">MSN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-28/israel-presses-ground-campaign-against-hamas-in-second-stage-of-gaza-war\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). Israel asserts that Hamas is using the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City as a command center (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-27/israeli-military-says-hamas-hiding-tunnels-operations-centres-in-gaza-hospital\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/28/exp-hamas-al-shifa-hospital-vo-sot-102812aseg2-cnni-world.cnn\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of \"Israel's Operation in Gaza\" and open source reporting (<a href=\"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd\" target=\"_blank\">ISW</a>). The location of the city block including Al-Shifa hospital may be pulled up using the following coordinates: (31\u00b031\u203227\u2033N 34\u00b026\u203239\u2033E), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the coordinates in the parentheses. Per Google Maps, the block is bound by the following roads: Abu Baker Al-Razi, Ibn Sina, Shifa-Ezz Eldine Al-Qassam, and Ahmed Abd Al-Azez (<a href=\"https://maps.app.goo.gl/Nxz3bPT2Fk9XEuw48\" target=\"_blank\">Google Maps</a>). Whether the structures on the block are damaged or destroyed is immaterial. ISW designating the block with \"Reported Israeli Clearing Operations\" alone would not count without corroboration as to control of the location. If ISW changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023\" with a closing date of 16 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-02-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3087, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 178, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2023-10-31T20:35:48.782Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-16T23:13:26.758Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-16T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-31T13:35:48.782-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-31T20:30:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.718Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1653 |
<p>NYC entered its "Phase I" of reopening on 8 June 2020 after a week of protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (<a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/all-eyes-on-new-york-city-as-tens-of-thousands-return-to-work/2451180/" target="_blank">NBC New York</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/amid-reopenings-and-street-protests-coronavirus-transmission-remains-high-in-much-of-the-us/2020/06/05/40c12efe-a670-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for "Daily Counts," click the tab for "Hospitalizations." COVID-19 hospitalizations in NYC last reached 1,000 on 14 April 2020. Due to delays in reporting, the question would resolve as of the date for which 1,000 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 9 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 October 2020" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T17:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:16:57.115Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4006, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 256, "predictions_count": 691, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1653, "question_name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:28:19.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.594Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T17:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:16:57.138Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4007, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 256, "predictions_count": 691, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1653, "question_name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:29:21.352Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.719Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T17:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:16:57.161Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4008, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 256, "predictions_count": 691, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1653, "question_name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:29:52.250Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:46.895Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T17:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:16:57.184Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4009, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 September 2020 and 30 September 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 256, "predictions_count": 691, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1653, "question_name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:30:26.260Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:47.059Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-01T17:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:16:57.207Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4010, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 October 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 256, "predictions_count": 691, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1653, "question_name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:28:47.474Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:47.223Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 710, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-06-12T23:07:47.326Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 111, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>NYC entered its \"Phase I\" of reopening on 8 June 2020 after a week of protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/all-eyes-on-new-york-city-as-tens-of-thousands-return-to-work/2451180/\" target=\"_blank\">NBC New York</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/amid-reopenings-and-street-protests-coronavirus-transmission-remains-high-in-much-of-the-us/2020/06/05/40c12efe-a670-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for \"Daily Counts,\" click the tab for \"Hospitalizations.\" COVID-19 hospitalizations in NYC last reached 1,000 on 14 April 2020. Due to delays in reporting, the question would resolve as of the date for which 1,000 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 9 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 October 2020\" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-10-01T07:01:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1653, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:22.668+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:41.683+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T16:05:26.252+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:43:38.626+00:00"}, "name": "When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 691, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 256, "published_at": "2020-06-12T17:38:20.311Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-08T14:30:26.330Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-12T10:38:20.311-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-12T17:00:37.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2179 |
<p>The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 (<a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-key-dates-training-camp-regular-season-all-star/7i6te7w31znt1jd41xj6rtleg" target="_blank">Sporting News</a>, <a href="https://www.nba.com/standings" target="_blank">NBA</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Golden State Warriors" with a closing date of 16 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5719, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:56.427Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:56.428Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.283Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5720, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:01.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:01.472Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.299Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5721, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:06.570Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:06.571Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.315Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5722, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Denver Nuggets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:11.483Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:11.484Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5723, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Golden State Warriors", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:36.785Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:36.786Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.361Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5724, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:16.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:16.329Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.378Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5725, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:41.140Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:41.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.394Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5726, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Miami Heat", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:46.097Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:46.098Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.410Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5727, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:51.198Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:51.199Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.426Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5728, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:35.722Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:26:35.722Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.442Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5729, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Phoenix Suns", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:26.377Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:26.378Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.458Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5730, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Utah Jazz", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:31.865Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 11, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:31.866Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-17T03:30:48.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-04T20:36:58.473Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5731, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 978, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2179, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:21.263Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 12, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:21.263Z"}], "answers_count": 13, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 995, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-14T11:26:20.615Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n <p>The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-key-dates-training-camp-regular-season-all-star/7i6te7w31znt1jd41xj6rtleg\" target=\"_blank\">Sporting News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nba.com/standings\" target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Golden State Warriors\" with a closing date of 16 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-19T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2179, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 978, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 86, "published_at": "2021-11-05T15:49:51.363Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-17T13:27:36.793Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-05T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-05T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1637 |
<p>In August 2019, the yuan rose above the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in eleven years amidst increased China-US trade tensions (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-analysts/analysts-view-yuan-drops-through-7-dollar-as-sino-u-s-trade-war-escalates-idUSKCN1UV07X" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000" with a closing date of 13 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-13T23:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-27T19:12:56.758Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3963, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "CNY 6.0000 or less", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 648, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1637, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-14T16:50:49.977Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:43.465Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-13T23:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-27T19:12:56.778Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3964, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 648, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1637, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-14T16:50:54.700Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:43.605Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-13T23:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-27T19:12:56.797Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3965, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 648, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1637, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-14T16:50:59.017Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:43.699Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-13T23:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-27T19:12:56.816Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3966, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than CNY 8.0000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 648, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1637, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-14T16:51:04.830Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:43.847Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 654, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-17T17:10:36.293Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 88, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "48%", "description": "\r\n <p>In August 2019, the yuan rose above the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in eleven years amidst increased China-US trade tensions (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-analysts/analysts-view-yuan-drops-through-7-dollar-as-sino-u-s-trade-war-escalates-idUSKCN1UV07X\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000\" with a closing date of 13 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-13T08:01:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1637, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:56.750+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:43.672+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:26:13.355+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:14:29.418+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 648, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 118, "published_at": "2020-05-29T16:54:33.577Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-14T16:51:04.844Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-13T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-05-29T10:00:28.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-05-29T17:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.140Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2187 |
<p>The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/international-travel-will-get-easier-but-restrictions-will-remain" target="_blank">Economist</a>). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">TSA</a>). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 (<a href="https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Formatted_TSA_Throughput_Data_13_October_2021.xlsx" target="_blank">Sorted TSA Data Download</a>, see both sheets).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 October 2022" with a closing date of 28 September 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:39.073Z", "created_at": "2021-11-11T21:18:41.555Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5763, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 254, "predictions_count": 1496, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2187, "question_name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:53.826Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:53.827Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:39.073Z", "created_at": "2021-11-11T21:18:41.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5764, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 254, "predictions_count": 1496, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2187, "question_name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:19.738Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:19.738Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:39.073Z", "created_at": "2021-11-11T21:18:41.590Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5765, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 254, "predictions_count": 1496, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2187, "question_name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:31.434Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:31.435Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:39.073Z", "created_at": "2021-11-11T21:18:41.607Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5766, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 254, "predictions_count": 1496, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2187, "question_name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:43.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:43.022Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-09-30T21:36:39.073Z", "created_at": "2021-11-11T21:18:41.623Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5767, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 October 2022", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 254, "predictions_count": 1496, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2187, "question_name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:07.371Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:07.372Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1610, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-08-15T11:07:07.834Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 46, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "86%", "description": "\r\n <p>The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/international-travel-will-get-easier-but-restrictions-will-remain\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (<a href=\"https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput\" target=\"_blank\">TSA</a>). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 (<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Formatted_TSA_Throughput_Data_13_October_2021.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\">Sorted TSA Data Download</a>, see both sheets).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 October 2022\" with a closing date of 28 September 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2187, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:29:14.929+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:18:26.395+00:00"}, "name": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1496, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 254, "published_at": "2021-11-12T15:00:00.516Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-09-30T21:37:43.031Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1701 |
<p>There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2020" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-07-03/republicans-democrats-in-tight-battle-for-gubernatorial-advantage-in-2020" target="_blank">US News</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:09:13.828Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4166, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1701, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Missouri in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:47:24.931Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:55.208Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:09:13.860Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4167, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1701, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Missouri in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:48:21.274Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:55.278Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:09:13.883Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4168, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 298, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1701, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Missouri in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:47:49.690Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:55.340Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 300, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-16T17:10:22.734Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 110, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2020\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-07-03/republicans-democrats-in-tight-battle-for-gubernatorial-advantage-in-2020\" target=\"_blank\">US News</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? </span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Republican Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1701, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:08.246+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:35.240+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T18:17:59.114+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:15:42.897+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected governor of Missouri in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 298, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 127, "published_at": "2020-07-16T16:51:12.416Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:48:21.348Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:48.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-16T17:00:48.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3044 | <p>Over the past decade, the percentage of novel drug approvals for rare diseases (diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US) has increased (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/cder-continues-advance-rare-disease-drug-development-new-efforts-including-accelerating-rare-disease" target="_blank">FDA - Rare Disease Day 2023</a>, <a href="https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/can-the-fda-keep-the-momentum-going-for-rare-disease-drug-approvals/" target="_blank">Pharmaceutical Technology</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the FDA for novel drug approvals in 2024 (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/development-approval-process-drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products" target="_blank">FDA - New Drugs</a>). In 2022, the FDA approved 20 novel drugs for rare diseases (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/164429/download?attachment" target="_blank">FDA - New Drug Therapy Approvals 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:54.402Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "13%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9236, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 12", "normalized_probability": 0.13, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 68, "probability": 0.13, "probability_formatted": "13%", "question_id": 3044, "question_name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:13:39.235Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:54.411Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "16%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9237, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 and 19", "normalized_probability": 0.16, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 68, "probability": 0.16, "probability_formatted": "16%", "question_id": 3044, "question_name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-08T22:18:55.546Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:54.418Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "42%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9238, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 20 and 27", "normalized_probability": 0.42, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 68, "probability": 0.42, "probability_formatted": "42%", "question_id": 3044, "question_name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:13:39.226Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:54.424Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "24%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9239, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 28 and 35", "normalized_probability": 0.24, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 68, "probability": 0.24, "probability_formatted": "24%", "question_id": 3044, "question_name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:13:39.217Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:54.431Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9240, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 35", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 68, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 3044, "question_name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T03:41:31.919Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 71, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Over the past decade, the percentage of novel drug approvals for rare diseases (diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US) has increased (<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/cder-continues-advance-rare-disease-drug-development-new-efforts-including-accelerating-rare-disease\" target=\"_blank\">FDA - Rare Disease Day 2023</a>, <a href=\"https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/can-the-fda-keep-the-momentum-going-for-rare-disease-drug-approvals/\" target=\"_blank\">Pharmaceutical Technology</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the FDA for novel drug approvals in 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/development-approval-process-drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products\" target=\"_blank\">FDA - New Drugs</a>). In 2022, the FDA approved 20 novel drugs for rare diseases (<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/media/164429/download?attachment\" target=\"_blank\">FDA - New Drug Therapy Approvals 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2025-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3044, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for rare (aka \"orphan\") diseases in 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 68, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-10-06T15:13:17.267Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-06T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-06T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2230 |
<p>The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a "tidal wave" of COVID-19 cases (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/13/uk/uk-omicron-infections-tidal-wave-gbr-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/u-k-debates-christmas-lockdown-amid-omicron-driven-covid-surge?sref=Wf79ZABI" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (<a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare" target="_blank">UK Health Security Agency</a>, see "Patients admitted to hospital" set to "Daily"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 26 March 2022</span>: There is an apparent incongruence in the UK Health Security Agency chart for admissions. The dates on the "7-day average" curve appear to be off by three days (e.g., the average it shows for 18 March is actually for 15-21 March). We have contacted the US HSA about the discrepancy, we will use the daily data as reported by the same source to determine the actual averages for the real dates for resolution. </p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.124Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5944, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1,500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:30.501Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:30.502Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.147Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5945, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:45.945Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:45.947Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.165Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5946, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:25.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:25.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.181Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5947, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:36.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:36.336Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.198Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5948, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3,000 but less than 3,500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:41.267Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:41.267Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.215Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5949, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:50.036Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:50.037Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-23T15:24:20.232Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5950, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2230, "question_name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:21.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:21.125Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 563, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-11T17:04:30.088Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 80, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "19%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a \"tidal wave\" of COVID-19 cases (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/13/uk/uk-omicron-infections-tidal-wave-gbr-intl/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/u-k-debates-christmas-lockdown-amid-omicron-driven-covid-surge?sref=Wf79ZABI\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (<a href=\"https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare\" target=\"_blank\">UK Health Security Agency</a>, see \"Patients admitted to hospital\" set to \"Daily\"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 26 March 2022</span>: There is an apparent incongruence in the UK Health Security Agency chart for admissions. The dates on the \"7-day average\" curve appear to be off by three days (e.g., the average it shows for 18 March is actually for 15-21 March). We have contacted the US HSA about the discrepancy, we will use the daily data as reported by the same source to determine the actual averages for the real dates for resolution.\u00a0</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 2,000 but less that 2,500\" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2230, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 451, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 81, "published_at": "2021-12-23T16:43:25.446Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-07T15:48:50.050Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-23T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-23T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1570 |
<p>As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 39,673 confirmed cases for Spain (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2b74edd8_2" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 180,000 cases" with a closing date of 17 April 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-17T22:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:21:20.499Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3697, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 60,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 219, "predictions_count": 491, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1570, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:27.998Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.741Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-17T22:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:21:20.559Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3698, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 60,000 and 100,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 219, "predictions_count": 491, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1570, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:23.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.871Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-17T22:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:21:20.598Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3699, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 100,000 but less than 140,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 219, "predictions_count": 491, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1570, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:17.944Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.982Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-17T22:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:21:20.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3700, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 140,000 and 180,000 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 219, "predictions_count": 491, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1570, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:13.209Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.074Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-17T22:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-26T13:21:20.694Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3701, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180,000 cases", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 219, "predictions_count": 491, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1570, "question_name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:08.182Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:16.218Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 503, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-27T10:48:39.566Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 21, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "5%", "description": "\r\n <p>As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 39,673 confirmed cases for Spain (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2b74edd8_2\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (<a href=\"https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/\" target=\"_blank\">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 180,000 cases\" with a closing date of 17 April 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-05-01T06:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1570, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:57.069+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:19:23.528+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:28:47.918+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:14:27.822+00:00"}, "name": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 491, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 219, "published_at": "2020-03-26T14:10:20.115Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-17T22:42:28.026Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-26T08:00:46.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-26T15:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1562 |
<p>On 12 March 2020, Major League Baseball (MLB) announced that it was suspending "Spring Training games and to delay the start of the 2020 regular season by at least two weeks due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic" (<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2020-season-delayed" target="_blank">MLB</a>, <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/03/12/mlb-delays-season-coronavirus-outbreak" target="_blank">Sports Illustrated</a>). Whether the first MLB game is played before spectators is immaterial.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 16 July 2020" with a closing date of 16 July 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 16 June 2020</span>: Only a regular season game would close this question.<span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><br></span><br></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-16T14:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:57:38.996Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3667, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 16 April 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 389, "predictions_count": 1025, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1562, "question_name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:18:53.768Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.671Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-16T14:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:57:39.048Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3668, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 April 2020 and 15 May 2020 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 389, "predictions_count": 1025, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1562, "question_name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:18:27.827Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.833Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-16T14:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:57:39.084Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3669, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 May 2020 and 15 June 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 389, "predictions_count": 1025, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1562, "question_name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:17:48.026Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:13.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-16T14:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:57:39.112Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3670, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 June 2020 and 15 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 389, "predictions_count": 1025, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1562, "question_name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:17:18.213Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:14.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-16T14:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-13T14:57:39.144Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3671, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 16 July 2020", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 389, "predictions_count": 1025, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1562, "question_name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:19:44.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:14.152Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1033, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-18T13:05:11.998Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 119, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>On 12 March 2020, Major League Baseball (MLB) announced that it was suspending \"Spring Training games and to delay the start of the 2020 regular season by at least two weeks due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic\" (<a href=\"https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2020-season-delayed\" target=\"_blank\">MLB</a>, <a href=\"https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/03/12/mlb-delays-season-coronavirus-outbreak\" target=\"_blank\">Sports Illustrated</a>). Whether the first MLB game is played before spectators is immaterial.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 16 July 2020\" with a closing date of 16 July 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 16 June 2020</span>: Only a regular season game would close this question.<span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><br></span><br></p>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-07-16T06:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1562, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:10.110+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:18:45.950+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:36:48.419+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:16:21.621+00:00"}, "name": "When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1025, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 389, "published_at": "2020-03-13T16:55:14.857Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:19:45.000Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-07-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-13T10:00:56.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-13T17:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2221 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_TSLA_Q3_2021_Quarterly_Update_SI1AKE.pdf" target="_blank">Tesla</a>). </p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.414Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5917, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 700,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:08.090Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:08.091Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5918, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:14.699Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:14.700Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.453Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5919, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:33:53.938Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:33:53.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.468Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5920, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:21.248Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:21.248Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.484Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5921, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:01.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:01.652Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.499Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5922, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1,900,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 588, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2221, "question_name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:30:47.709Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-25T21:30:47.710Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 608, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-11-30T20:48:07.194Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "92%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (<a href=\"https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_TSLA_Q3_2021_Quarterly_Update_SI1AKE.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla</a>). </p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2221, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:11.011+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:21:31.158+00:00"}, "name": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 588, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 88, "published_at": "2021-12-13T17:48:56.605Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-25T21:34:21.257Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-13T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-13T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3069 | <p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that those responsible for the early October attacks in southern Israel will "will pay an unprecedented price" as Israel mobilizes forces near the Gaza Strip (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/we-are-at-war-netanyahu-says-after-hamas-launches-devastating-surprise-attack/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2" target="_blank">AP</a>). For the purposes of this question, "invade" means the sending of armed forces into Gaza and holding territory (i.e., mere "raids" alone would not count).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.516Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9329, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 30 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-29T23:51:07.469Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.524Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9330, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 30 November 2023 and 13 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-03T16:33:47.724Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9331, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 January 2024 and 13 March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 322, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T11:33:36.680Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.539Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "11%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9332, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 March 2024 and 11 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.11, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 321, "probability": 0.11, "probability_formatted": "11%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T03:27:53.530Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.546Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "14%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9333, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 12 June 2024 and 9 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.14, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.14, "probability_formatted": "14%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:44:54.439Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.553Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "69%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9334, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 10 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.69, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 324, "probability": 0.69, "probability_formatted": "69%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:44:54.432Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.561Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9335, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "IDF ground forces will not invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 322, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3069, "question_name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T11:33:36.674Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 332, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that those responsible for the early October attacks in southern Israel will \"will pay an unprecedented price\" as Israel mobilizes forces near the Gaza Strip (<a href=\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/we-are-at-war-netanyahu-says-after-hamas-launches-devastating-surprise-attack/\" target=\"_blank\">Times of Israel</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). For the purposes of this question, \"invade\" means the sending of armed forces into Gaza and holding territory (i.e., mere \"raids\" alone would not count).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-10T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3069, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 327, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 83, "published_at": "2023-10-17T17:06:10.636Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-17T10:06:10.636-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-17T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:21:23.229Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3174 | <p>The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of the launch of this question, Biden's approval rating on 15 December 2023 was 38.6%. The data for 5 March 2024 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 8 March 2024.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.305Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "7%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9812, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 35.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.07, "positions_count": 85, "predictions_count": 148, "probability": 0.07, "probability_formatted": "7%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:37:29.232Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.315Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "15%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9813, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 35.0%, but less than 37.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.15, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.15, "probability_formatted": "15%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T23:05:10.680Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.323Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "41%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9814, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 37.0%, but less than 39.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.41, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 146, "probability": 0.41, "probability_formatted": "41%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T15:22:34.837Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.330Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "25%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9815, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 39.0%, but less than 41.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.25, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.25, "probability_formatted": "25%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T23:05:10.675Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.338Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "7%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9816, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 41.0%, but less than 43.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.07, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.07, "probability_formatted": "7%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T23:05:10.671Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9817, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 43.0%, but less than 45.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.03, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 136, "probability": 0.03, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T19:48:42.437Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:54:19.353Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9818, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "45.0% or higher", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 138, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3174, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T09:16:31.515Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 151, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (<a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of the launch of this question, Biden's approval rating on 15 December 2023 was 38.6%. The data for 5 March 2024 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 8 March 2024.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-05T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": true, "id": 3174, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 5 March 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 151, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 86, "published_at": "2023-12-22T16:19:02.348Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-22T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-22T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T23:05:10.828Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1979 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000" with a closing date of 30 April 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.260Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5017, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 130,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:26:43.166Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:26:43.171Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.290Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5018, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:27:37.003Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:27:37.008Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5019, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:28:05.611Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:28:05.613Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5020, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:28:43.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:28:43.696Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.369Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5021, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:29:25.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:29:25.559Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.395Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5022, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:30:19.396Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:30:19.406Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-30T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-07T14:04:30.424Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5023, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 180,000,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 411, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1979, "question_name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:31:34.024Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-05-10T14:31:34.026Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 471, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-27T01:26:47.058Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "83%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople with at least One Dose\u201d (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000\" with a closing date of 30 April 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-04-30T07:01:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1979, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:20.732+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:53.820+00:00"}, "name": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 411, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 98, "published_at": "2021-04-07T17:09:23.424Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-05-10T14:31:34.212Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-04-07T11:00:15.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-04-07T18:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-11-14T20:06:30.187Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2601 |
<p>Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-10-24/the-u-s-economy-is-still-not-ready-to-give-up-the-ghost" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.610Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7355, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by more than 3.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:20.378Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:20.378Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.618Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7356, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:27.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:27.571Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.627Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7357, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:24.106Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:24.106Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.636Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7358, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:22.365Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:22.366Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.644Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7359, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:29.309Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:29.310Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-04-01T14:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-27T22:09:21.652Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7360, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by 3.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 294, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2601, "question_name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:25.849Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:25.850Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 302, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-15T03:26:19.977Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 77, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "\r\n <p>Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-10-24/the-u-s-economy-is-still-not-ready-to-give-up-the-ghost\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2601, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 294, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 92, "published_at": "2022-10-28T13:46:52.282Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-04-27T13:50:29.316Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-04-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-28T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-28T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:58.023Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1686 |
<p>Several National Basketball Association (NBA) players have tested positive for COVID-19 just as the league is looking to restart the 2019-20 season at the Walt Disney World complex (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sports-restart-has-a-plan-for-everythingexcept-a-coronavirus-outbreak-11593604800" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.slamonline.com/nba/nba-coronavirus-covid-list/" target="_blank">Slam Online</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rules-of-the-nbas-disney-bubble-11592402033" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). For purposes of this question, a test indicating a past infection will not count for resolution (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/testing.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 and 7" with a closing date of 11 October 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-03T13:32:23.116Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4116, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 153, "predictions_count": 622, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1686, "question_name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:25.216Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:52.719Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-03T13:32:23.142Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4117, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 and 7", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 153, "predictions_count": 622, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1686, "question_name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:30.956Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:52.804Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-03T13:32:23.166Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4118, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8 and 14", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 153, "predictions_count": 622, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1686, "question_name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:36.962Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:52.880Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-03T13:32:23.190Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4119, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15 and 21", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 153, "predictions_count": 622, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1686, "question_name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:18.764Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:52.956Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-10-12T00:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-03T13:32:23.214Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4120, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "22 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 153, "predictions_count": 622, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1686, "question_name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:12.151Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:53.030Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 648, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-10T00:08:29.788Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 63, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "37%", "description": "\r\n <p>Several National Basketball Association (NBA) players have tested positive for COVID-19 just as the league is looking to restart the 2019-20 season at the Walt Disney World complex (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sports-restart-has-a-plan-for-everythingexcept-a-coronavirus-outbreak-11593604800\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.slamonline.com/nba/nba-coronavirus-covid-list/\" target=\"_blank\">Slam Online</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rules-of-the-nbas-disney-bubble-11592402033\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>). For purposes of this question, a test indicating a past infection will not count for resolution (<a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/testing.html\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 and 7\" with a closing date of 11 October 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-10-15T07:01:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1686, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:12.560+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:47.599+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:24:29.620+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:08:24.690+00:00"}, "name": "Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 622, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 153, "published_at": "2020-07-03T16:56:42.604Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-10-12T16:47:36.987Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-10-11T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-03T10:00:55.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-03T17:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.173Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237 | <p>Use the rationale box to suggest questions and topics that you would like to forecast on.<br></p><p>This is an open-ended question with no scoring.</p><p>Feel free to upvote any suggestions you like.</p><p>All suggestions welcome! </p><p>(This thread is the successor to the previous question ideas threads, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1291" target="_blank">#1291</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1687-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen" target="_blank">#1687</a>, and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen" target="_blank">#1933</a>)</p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": {}, "answers_count": 0, "binary?": false, "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 281, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Use the rationale box to suggest questions and topics that you would like to forecast on.<br></p><p>This is an open-ended question with no scoring.</p><p>Feel free to upvote any suggestions you like.</p><p>All suggestions welcome!\u00a0</p><p>(This thread is the successor to the previous question ideas threads, <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1291\" target=\"_blank\">#1291</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1687-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen\" target=\"_blank\">#1687</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1933-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen\" target=\"_blank\">#1933</a>)</p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2237, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What forecasting questions should we ask? What questions would you like to forecast on GJOpen?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 0, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 0, "published_at": "2022-01-04T21:43:48.369Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-01-04T14:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-01-04T22:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::DiscussionQuestion", "updated_at": "2023-04-13T19:50:01.570Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3134 | <p>The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-leader-geert-wilders-wins-dutch-election-exit-poll/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-election-candidates-prime-minister-f31f57a856f006ff0f2fc4984acaca6b" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet" target="_blank">Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet</a>). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 255 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (<a href="(https://www.dutchnews.nl/2021/10/cabinet-negotiation-talks-hit-225-days-setting-a-new-record/" target="_blank">Dutch News</a>, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/new-dutch-government-formed-nearly-300-days-after-polls-closed/2471205" target="_blank">Anadolu Agency</a>). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.503Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9597, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 17 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T20:22:34.999Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.521Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "20%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9598, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 17 January 2024 and 26 March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.2, "probability_formatted": "20%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T10:38:02.926Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.529Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "28%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9599, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 27 March 2024 and 4 June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.28, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.28, "probability_formatted": "28%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:30:18.534Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.537Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "32%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9600, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5 June 2024 and 13 August 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.32, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.32, "probability_formatted": "32%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:30:18.529Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.545Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9601, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 August 2024 and 22 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.12, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.12, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:30:18.538Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:05:33.552Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "7%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9602, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 23 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.07, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 86, "probability": 0.07, "probability_formatted": "7%", "question_id": 3134, "question_name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:30:18.542Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 95, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-leader-geert-wilders-wins-dutch-election-exit-poll/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-election-candidates-prime-minister-f31f57a856f006ff0f2fc4984acaca6b\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet\" target=\"_blank\">Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet</a>). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 255 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (<a href=\"(https://www.dutchnews.nl/2021/10/cabinet-negotiation-talks-hit-225-days-setting-a-new-record/\" target=\"_blank\">Dutch News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/new-dutch-government-formed-nearly-300-days-after-polls-closed/2471205\" target=\"_blank\">Anadolu Agency</a>). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-23T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3134, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 88, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 34, "published_at": "2023-11-24T16:07:46.010Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-24T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-24T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:53:11.080Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1794 |
<p>The UN has addressed issues regarding outer space at a variety of levels over the years (<a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/topics/outerspace/" target="_blank">UN (Outer Space)</a>, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/documents-and-resolutions/search.jspx?&view=resolutions" target="_blank">UN Office for Outer Space Affairs</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/gadis3642.doc.htm" target="_blank">UN</a>). China and others have different views on how to create new international law governing outer space (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/what-does-china-think-about-nasas-artemis-accords/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/China-E-In-extenso.pdf" target="_blank">UN</a>, <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/08/64e53add81c6-japan-us-agree-to-boost-defense-cooperation-in-outer-space.html" target="_blank">Kyodo News</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 October 2020</span>: Procedural votes, such as adding an item to an agenda, would not on its own count. An actual resolution must be voted upon by the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly to count.<br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, and China will vote for it" with a closing date of 7 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-07T21:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-25T15:22:15.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4455, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and China will vote for it", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1794, "question_name": "Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:18.297Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-22T19:20:28.734Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-07T21:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-25T15:22:16.024Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4456, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1794, "question_name": "Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:20.353Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:20.361Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-07T21:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-25T15:22:16.047Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4457, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and China will vote against it", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1794, "question_name": "Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:22.880Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:22.888Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-07T21:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-25T15:22:16.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4458, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 276, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1794, "question_name": "Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:25.259Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:25.266Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 324, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-10-07T15:32:46.323Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 61, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The UN has addressed issues regarding outer space at a variety of levels over the years (<a href=\"https://www.un.org/disarmament/topics/outerspace/\" target=\"_blank\">UN (Outer Space)</a>, <a href=\"https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/documents-and-resolutions/search.jspx?&view=resolutions\" target=\"_blank\">UN Office for Outer Space Affairs</a>, <a href=\"https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/gadis3642.doc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">UN</a>). China and others have different views on how to create new international law governing outer space (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/what-does-china-think-about-nasas-artemis-accords/\" target=\"_blank\">Diplomat</a>, <a href=\"https://www.un.org/disarmament/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/China-E-In-extenso.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">UN</a>, <a href=\"https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/08/64e53add81c6-japan-us-agree-to-boost-defense-cooperation-in-outer-space.html\" target=\"_blank\">Kyodo News</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 7 October 2020</span>: Procedural votes, such as adding an item to an agenda, would not on its own count. An actual resolution must be voted upon by the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly to count.<br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, and China will vote for it\" with a closing date of 7 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-05-01T07:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1794, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:46.505+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:12.357+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:32:12.301+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:30:48.354+00:00"}, "name": "Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 276, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 83, "published_at": "2020-09-25T16:58:03.796Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-11T00:59:25.282Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-09-25T10:00:38.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-09-25T17:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1664 |
<p>A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February 2020 that she would step down as CDU party leader (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51441993" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A leadership vote is expected in December 2020 (<a href="https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/germanys-cdu-to-postpone-leadership-vote-until-december/" target="_blank">Foreign Brief</a>, <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/strong-public-support-for-cducsu-but-questions-remain-on-merkels-successor/" target="_blank">Euractiv</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 25 August 2020</span>: If Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer were reelected as her own "successor," the question would close "A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021."</span><br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:35:11.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4037, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Armin Laschet", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 541, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1664, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:28:50.811Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T23:28:50.813Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:35:12.000Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4038, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Friedrich Merz", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 541, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1664, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:30:26.051Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T23:30:26.053Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:35:12.019Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4039, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Norbert R\u00f6ttgen", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 541, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1664, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:31:25.796Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T23:31:25.798Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:35:12.038Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4040, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 541, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1664, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:27:35.997Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T23:27:35.998Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:35:12.056Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4041, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 541, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1664, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:25:20.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-01T23:25:20.739Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 594, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-10-27T07:44:34.774Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 66, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "66%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February 2020 that she would step down as CDU party leader (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51441993\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). A leadership vote is expected in December 2020 (<a href=\"https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/germanys-cdu-to-postpone-leadership-vote-until-december/\" target=\"_blank\">Foreign Brief</a>, <a href=\"https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/strong-public-support-for-cducsu-but-questions-remain-on-merkels-successor/\" target=\"_blank\">Euractiv</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 25 August 2020</span>: If Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer were reelected as her own \"successor,\" the question would close \"A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021.\"</span><br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021\" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-01T08:01:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1664, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:25.371+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:14.455+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:34:42.421+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:22:52.235+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 541, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 88, "published_at": "2020-06-19T16:56:58.351Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-01T23:31:26.025Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-19T10:00:08.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-19T17:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2812 |
<p>The Federal Reserve is targeting wage inflation as part of its overall attempt to bring price stability (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/wage-growth-is-cooling-but-workers-still-have-bargaining-power.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-06/after-playing-wage-catch-up-u-s-firms-may-have-found-their-footing" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (<a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed</a>, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Unweighted series, hourly" under "3-month moving average," then click "Paid hourly" in the chart legend). In April 2022, the 3-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 6.5%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "6.0% or more" with a closing date of 6 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:39:24.920Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8125, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2812, "question_name": "What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:17.955Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:17.956Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:39:24.931Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8126, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.0% and 5.4%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2812, "question_name": "What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:15.381Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:15.381Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:39:24.939Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8127, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.4% but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2812, "question_name": "What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:16.261Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:16.261Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T21:39:24.948Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8128, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "6.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2812, "question_name": "What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:17.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:17.102Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 121, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-04-19T18:08:55.216Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "57%", "description": "\r\n <p>The Federal Reserve is targeting wage inflation as part of its overall attempt to bring price stability (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/wage-growth-is-cooling-but-workers-still-have-bargaining-power.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-06/after-playing-wage-catch-up-u-s-firms-may-have-found-their-footing\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's \"Wage Growth Tracker\" (<a href=\"https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta Fed</a>, with \"Interactive Chart\" selected, click \"Unweighted series, hourly\" under \"3-month moving average,\" then click \"Paid hourly\" in the chart legend). In April 2022, the 3-month moving average for \"Paid hourly\" was 6.5%.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"6.0% or more\" with a closing date of 6 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-05T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2812, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 120, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 55, "published_at": "2023-03-29T13:54:26.951Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:49:17.963Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2150 |
<p>On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/09/30/al-michaels-previews-brady-vs-belichick-this-sunday.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00" with a closing date of 31 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.034Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5614, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 33,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:40:16.415Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:40:16.416Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.050Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5615, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:41:01.701Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:41:01.702Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.065Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5616, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:43:11.814Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:43:11.815Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.081Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5617, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:41:41.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:41:41.868Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.096Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5618, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:43:53.806Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:43:53.807Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-31T21:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.112Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5619, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "37,000.00 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2150, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:42:34.959Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-01T22:42:34.960Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 492, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-27T17:38:57.596Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "96%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/09/30/al-michaels-previews-brady-vs-belichick-this-sunday.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00\" with a closing date of 31 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-30T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2150, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 492, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 80, "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:54:23.213Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-01T22:43:53.846Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-30T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-07T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-07T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943 |
<p>With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive" with a closing date of 16 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-16T21:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T16:06:17.198Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4854, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1.000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 1035, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1943, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:15:54.096Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-17T15:15:54.098Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-16T21:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T16:06:17.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4855, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 1035, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1943, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:01.408Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:01.409Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-16T21:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T16:06:17.269Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4856, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 1035, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1943, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:08.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:08.652Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-16T21:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T16:06:17.317Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4857, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 1035, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1943, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:22.786Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:22.787Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-16T21:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-19T16:06:17.347Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4858, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.500", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 1035, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1943, "question_name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:15.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:15.628Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1105, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-11T16:16:13.316Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 67, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "68%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive\" with a closing date of 16 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-09-16T07:01:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1943, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:41.212+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:47.708+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1035, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 133, "published_at": "2021-02-19T17:48:10.718Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-17T15:16:22.796Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-19T10:00:09.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-19T18:00:09.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2206 |
<p>The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/celebrations-in-2022-cannot-hide-an-uncertain-future-for-britain" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/uk-eu-northern-ireland/620716/" target="_blank">Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html" target="_blank">Belfast Telegraph</a>, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/part/IV/crossheading/elections-etc" target="_blank">Northern Ireland Act 1998</a>). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., <a href="http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2017/general/2217.pdf" target="_blank">NI Assembly</a>, see Table 5.1).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Sinn Féin" with a closing date of 5 May 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-05T21:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:32:48.291Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5857, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Democratic Unionist Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2206, "question_name": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:44.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:44.905Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-05T21:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:32:48.314Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5858, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Sinn F\u00e9in", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2206, "question_name": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:50.618Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:50.619Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-05T21:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:32:48.330Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5859, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 239, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2206, "question_name": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:47.452Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:47.453Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 239, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-03T18:22:40.762Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 153, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/celebrations-in-2022-cannot-hide-an-uncertain-future-for-britain\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/uk-eu-northern-ireland/620716/\" target=\"_blank\">Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html\" target=\"_blank\">Belfast Telegraph</a>, <a href=\"https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/part/IV/crossheading/elections-etc\" target=\"_blank\">Northern Ireland Act 1998</a>). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., <a href=\"http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2017/general/2217.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">NI Assembly</a>, see Table 5.1).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Sinn F\u00e9in\" with a closing date of 5 May 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-05-05T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2206, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 239, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 156, "published_at": "2021-12-03T15:50:41.060Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-07T20:38:50.627Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-05-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
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