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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/288 | <span style="background-color:#22a5b6;color:white;font-weight:600;padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;">Attention forecasters: We apologize for the delayed posting of scores. Our technical team is investigating the cause of the delay. Thank you for your patience!</span>
<b>This question closed as "c) Between 1 July 2017 and December 31st 2017, inclusive", with and end date of 2 September 2017 (<a href="http://www.38north.org/2017/09/punggye090517/" target="_blank">38 North</a>). </b>
Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html" target="_blank">NY Times 1/6/16</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test.html?_r=0" target="_blank">NY Times 9/8/16</a>. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test in September of 2016 and there is speculation that a sixth test may soon follow (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-tunnel-idUSKCN11H0RP" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/11/north-korea-prepares-for-next-nuclear-test-as-un-us-weigh-sanctions.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73" target="_blank">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-02T06:59:18.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-20T16:03:41.874Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 562, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 432, "predictions_count": 2433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 288, "question_name": "When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-08T19:15:20.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:14.003Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-02T06:59:18.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-20T16:03:41.948Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 563, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 432, "predictions_count": 2433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 288, "question_name": "When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-08T19:15:48.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:14.281Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-02T06:59:18.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-20T16:03:41.970Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 564, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 432, "predictions_count": 2433, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 288, "question_name": "When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-08T19:14:51.818Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:14.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-02T06:59:18.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-20T16:03:41.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 565, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 432, "predictions_count": 2433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 288, "question_name": "When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-08T19:14:20.278Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:14.636Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2880, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-31T14:07:26.378Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "<span style=\"background-color:#22a5b6;color:white;font-weight:600;padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;\">Attention forecasters: We apologize for the delayed posting of scores. Our technical team is investigating the cause of the delay. Thank you for your patience!</span> \r\n\r\n<b>This question closed as \"c) Between 1 July 2017 and December 31st 2017, inclusive\", with and end date of 2 September 2017 (<a href=\"http://www.38north.org/2017/09/punggye090517/\" target=\"_blank\">38 North</a>). </b>\r\n\r\nPast examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: <a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times 1/6/16</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times 9/8/16</a>. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test in September of 2016 and there is speculation that a sixth test may soon follow (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-tunnel-idUSKCN11H0RP\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/11/north-korea-prepares-for-next-nuclear-test-as-un-us-weigh-sanctions.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/103\" target=\"_blank\">Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/231\" target=\"_blank\">Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a>", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:12.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 288, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:17:05.661+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:52.700+00:00"}, "name": "When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2433, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 432, "published_at": "2016-09-20T16:03:42.071Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-08T19:15:48.643Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-09-20T10:00:12.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-09-20T17:00:12.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.853Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/955 | Average hourly earnings statistics are based on survey data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">BLS Press Releases</a>, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2018/home.htm" target="_blank">BLS Schedule</a>). Outcome will be determined by data displayed on the FRED economic data system at the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5" target="_blank">St. Louis Fed</a>.
<hr>
The percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees was 2.74. This question closed as "Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:50.894Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2139, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 2.35%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 80, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 955, "question_name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:40.833Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:02.160Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:50.935Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2140, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 2.35% and 2.50%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 80, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 955, "question_name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:39.979Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:02.745Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:50.979Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2141, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 2.50% but less than 2.65% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 80, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 955, "question_name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:39.060Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:03.307Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:51.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2142, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 80, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 955, "question_name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:38.099Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:03.836Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:51.075Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2143, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 2.80%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 80, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 955, "question_name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:37.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:04.557Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 80, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Average hourly earnings statistics are based on survey data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS Press Releases</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2018/home.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BLS Schedule</a>). Outcome will be determined by data displayed on the FRED economic data system at the <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Fed</a>.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThe percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees was 2.74. This question closed as \"Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive\" with an end date of 1 July 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-30T06:59:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 955, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:22.450+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:09.278+00:00"}, "name": "In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?\u000b", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 80, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 27, "published_at": "2018-05-16T18:18:51.252Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-06T20:33:40.848Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-16T11:30:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-16T18:30:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:22.455Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/784 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:09:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:25.511Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1729, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than -0.73", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 784, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Sweden (SWE) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:11:40.878Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:06.237Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:09:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:25.605Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1730, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between -0.73 and -0.68, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 784, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Sweden (SWE) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:11:38.583Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:06.672Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:09:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:25.671Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1731, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than -0.68", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 784, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Sweden (SWE) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:11:36.498Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:07.618Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 195, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = \"https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T04:59:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 784, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:33.164+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:09.311+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Sweden (SWE) in December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 193, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 81, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:52:00.246Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:11:40.896Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/93 | Brazil, Russia, India and China make up the BRIC countries; all four have been experiencing slowdowns in growth and enter 2016 facing distinct economic challenges (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10451" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>). Annualised quarterly growth rates measure the change in real GDP compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2015 and will close once the BRIC governments release annualized growth for the quarter ending in December of 2015. Media coverage of the growth rates for the quarter ending September of 2015 can be seen here: <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-brazil-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0TG1HK20151127#QLwx1m0ALPXBPxzL.97" target = "_blank">Brazil</a> , <a href = "http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/us-russia-economy-gdp-idUKKCN0T11WK20151112" target = "_blank">Russia</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/11/30/india-now-fastest-growing-large-economy-at-7-4-third-quarter-gdp-growth/" target = "_blank">India</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/19/us-china-economy-idUSKCN0SD04B20151019#fM3vEX6Ue2YpWOLl.97" target = "_blank">China</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T14:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-08T17:23:02.886Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 153, "membership_id": 6, "name": "None", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 640, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 93, "question_name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:18.683Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T14:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-08T17:23:15.662Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 154, "membership_id": 6, "name": "One", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 640, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 93, "question_name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:19.930Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T14:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-08T17:23:23.623Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 155, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Two", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 640, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 93, "question_name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:20.910Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T14:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-08T17:23:34.051Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 156, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Three", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 640, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 93, "question_name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:21.288Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T14:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-08T17:23:41.212Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 157, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Four", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 400, "predictions_count": 640, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 93, "question_name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:22.242Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 780, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-12-08T18:58:03.666Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 23, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Brazil, Russia, India and China make up the BRIC countries; all four have been experiencing slowdowns in growth and enter 2016 facing distinct economic challenges (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10451\" target = \"_blank\">The World in 2016</a>). Annualised quarterly growth rates measure the change in real GDP compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2015 and will close once the BRIC governments release annualized growth for the quarter ending in December of 2015. Media coverage of the growth rates for the quarter ending September of 2015 can be seen here: <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-brazil-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0TG1HK20151127#QLwx1m0ALPXBPxzL.97\" target = \"_blank\">Brazil</a> , <a href = \"http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/us-russia-economy-gdp-idUKKCN0T11WK20151112\" target = \"_blank\">Russia</a>, <a href = \"http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/11/30/india-now-fastest-growing-large-economy-at-7-4-third-quarter-gdp-growth/\" target = \"_blank\">India</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/19/us-china-economy-idUSKCN0SD04B20151019#fM3vEX6Ue2YpWOLl.97\" target = \"_blank\">China</a>.", "ends_at": "2016-01-01T07:59:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 93, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:53:35.934+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:50:47.690+00:00"}, "name": "How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 640, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 400, "published_at": "2015-12-08T17:30:23.401Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-05T14:45:33.778Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-12-08T10:00:55.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-12-08T18:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/653 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = "https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO:PX1"target="_blank">Google Finance </a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T16:30:10.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:27:18.324Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1360, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 5,173.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 225, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 653, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:18:44.878Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T16:30:10.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:27:18.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1361, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 5,173.00 and 5,278.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 225, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 653, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:19:07.187Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.265Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T16:30:10.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:27:18.368Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1362, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 5,278.00 but less than 5,369.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 225, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 653, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:19:35.930Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.379Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T16:30:10.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:27:18.391Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1363, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 5,369.00 and 5,474.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 225, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 653, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:19:59.433Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.522Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T16:30:10.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:27:18.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1364, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 5,474.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 225, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 653, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:20:20.494Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.656Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 225, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-28T19:21:06.360Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "83%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = \"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO:PX1\"target=\"_blank\">Google Finance </a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T03:59:31.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 653, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:56.121+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:20.554+00:00"}, "name": "What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 225, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2017-10-18T14:41:37.278Z", "resolution_notes": ["Actual value: 5,507.14\r\nhttps://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO%3APX1&ei=7RL6WeHOBdDCe_Chl6gI"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:20:20.650Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-18T09:00:31.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-18T16:00:31.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/654 | Honduras has presidential elections scheduled for 26 November 2017 (<a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/05/17/honduran-president-favoured-to-win-november-election--poll/"target="_blank">The Star</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21720653-presidents-bid-second-term-alarms-democrats-eight-years-after-coup-heated"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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With nearly 43% of the popular vote, Juan Hernandez has been declared the winner in Honduras' presidential election (<a href = "https://resultadosgenerales2017.tse.hn/"target="_blank">TSE Honduras</a>, <a href = "https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/18/571571455/honduran-court-rules-for-incumbent-president-weeks-after-disputed-vote"target="_blank">NPR</a>). This question closed as "Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive."
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.088Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1365, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, with more than 45% of the popular vote", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 654, "question_name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:46:33.001Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.805Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.115Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1366, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 654, "question_name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:46:46.135Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.946Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.149Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1367, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, with more than 27% but less than 38% of the vote", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 654, "question_name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:47:03.216Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.069Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.178Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1368, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, with 27% or less of the popular vote", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 654, "question_name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:46:18.123Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.197Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.213Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1369, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 654, "question_name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:46:04.602Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:28.333Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 156, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-26T07:33:29.542Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "Honduras has presidential elections scheduled for 26 November 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/05/17/honduran-president-favoured-to-win-november-election--poll/\"target=\"_blank\">The Star</a>, <a href = \"https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21720653-presidents-bid-second-term-alarms-democrats-eight-years-after-coup-heated\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nWith nearly 43% of the popular vote, Juan Hernandez has been declared the winner in Honduras' presidential election (<a href = \"https://resultadosgenerales2017.tse.hn/\"target=\"_blank\">TSE Honduras</a>, <a href = \"https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/18/571571455/honduran-court-rules-for-incumbent-president-weeks-after-disputed-vote\"target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>). This question closed as \"Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive.\"\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-11-27T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 654, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:44.766+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:23.156+00:00"}, "name": "Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 48, "published_at": "2017-10-17T14:46:04.375Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T14:47:03.294Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-17T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-17T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/878 | <b>The Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LII</b>
Super Bowl LII is scheduled for 4 February 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl"target="_blank">NFL</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-05T04:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-01-17T15:37:20.935Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1912, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 439, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 878, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LII?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-05T14:02:06.759Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:13.701Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-05T04:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-01-17T15:37:20.967Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1913, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 439, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 878, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LII?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-05T14:02:55.371Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:14.083Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-05T04:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-01-17T15:37:21.000Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1914, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "New England Patriots", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 439, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 878, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LII?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-05T14:02:23.145Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:14.490Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-05T04:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-01-17T15:37:21.032Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1915, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 439, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 878, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LII?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-05T14:02:39.467Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:14.763Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 478, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-02-05T07:27:08.879Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "<b>The Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LII</b>\r\n\r\nSuper Bowl LII is scheduled for 4 February 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl\"target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-02-05T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 878, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:17.583+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:42.025+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LII?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 439, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 260, "published_at": "2018-01-17T15:37:21.130Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-05T14:02:55.406Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-02-04T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-01-17T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-01-17T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/45 | Europe is facing a refugee crisis (http://www.unhcr.org/55eed5d66.html , http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-how-europes-alarming-lack-of-unity-over-the-issue-could-bring-about-the-break-up-of-the-eu-10492151.html , http://neurope.eu/article/a-call-for-collective-courage/ ). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean as of 31 December 2015 (http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html ). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-12-29T23:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T13:07:53.889Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 72, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Less than 560,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 358, "predictions_count": 2241, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 45, "question_name": "As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-06T14:49:15.670Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:20.489Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-12-29T23:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T13:08:41.279Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 73, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 358, "predictions_count": 2241, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 45, "question_name": "As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-06T14:49:15.670Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:21.345Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-12-29T23:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T13:09:10.773Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 74, "membership_id": 6, "name": "More than 710,000 but less than 1 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 358, "predictions_count": 2241, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 45, "question_name": "As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-06T14:49:15.670Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:22.430Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-12-29T23:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T14:49:38.958Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 75, "membership_id": 6, "name": "1 million or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 358, "predictions_count": 2241, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 45, "question_name": "As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-06T14:49:15.670Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:23.341Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2591, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-12-23T14:27:43.055Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "94%", "description": "Europe is facing a refugee crisis (http://www.unhcr.org/55eed5d66.html , http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-how-europes-alarming-lack-of-unity-over-the-issue-could-bring-about-the-break-up-of-the-eu-10492151.html , http://neurope.eu/article/a-call-for-collective-courage/ ). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean as of 31 December 2015 (http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html ).", "ends_at": "2015-12-31T07:59:29.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 45, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {}, "name": "As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2241, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 358, "published_at": "2015-09-21T13:10:50.345Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-06T14:49:15.692Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-12-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-21T13:00:29.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-21T20:00:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:39:36.254Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/242 | This question was closed on 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016 (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href ="http://www.ibtimes.com/2016-election-recount-ends-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-finalize-results-trump-2459421" target = "_blank"> International Business Times</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
The presidential race in Michigan is likely to be competitive (<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/240" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win Ohio?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/241" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:32:53.617Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 455, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 504, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 242, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-13T15:48:29.498Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:28.760Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:32:53.564Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 453, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 504, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 242, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-13T15:47:42.957Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:28.315Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:32:53.600Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 454, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 504, "predictions_count": 1421, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 242, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-13T15:48:08.072Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:28.521Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1430, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed on 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan\" target = \"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href =\"http://www.ibtimes.com/2016-election-recount-ends-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-finalize-results-trump-2459421\" target = \"_blank\"> International Business Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe presidential race in Michigan is likely to be competitive (<a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/240\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Ohio?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/241\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:53.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 242, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:09.925+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:08:04.160+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1421, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 504, "published_at": "2016-07-15T16:32:53.664Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-13T15:48:29.515Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-15T10:00:53.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-15T17:00:53.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/895 | The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href = "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp"target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC has meetings scheduled throughout the year, and there is internal debate about how quickly to raise rates (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"target="_blank">The Federal Reserve</a>, <a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"target="_blank">The Federal Reserve</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/21/business/economy/fed-economy.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The FOMC<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"target="_blank"> raised rates three (3) times</a> in the relevant time period. This question closed as "3" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-07T16:30:19.979Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1971, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 397, "predictions_count": 1282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 895, "question_name": "How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018? 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", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-05T17:23:33.162Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:39.593Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-07T16:30:20.077Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1974, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 397, "predictions_count": 1282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 895, "question_name": "How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-05T17:24:04.602Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:39.980Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1339, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-15T15:51:23.172Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 106, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "49%", "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href = \"http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp\"target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC has meetings scheduled throughout the year, and there is internal debate about how quickly to raise rates (<a href = \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\"target=\"_blank\">The Federal Reserve</a>, <a href = \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm\"target=\"_blank\">The Federal Reserve</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/21/business/economy/fed-economy.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC<a href = \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm\"target=\"_blank\"> raised rates three (3) times</a> in the relevant time period. This question closed as \"3\" with an end date of 1 October 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-09-30T06:59:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 895, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:21.284+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:56.729+00:00"}, "name": "How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018? 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1063 | UK prime minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she attempts to navigate Brexit (<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-pushes-no-confidence-vote-in-theresa-may/" target="_blank">Politico</a>)
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2019. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T11:30:50.314Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2428, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from the Conservative Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 2696, "predictions_count": 4260, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1063, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T15:06:42.757Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:41.862Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T11:30:50.331Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2429, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from the Labour Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 2696, "predictions_count": 4260, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1063, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T15:07:51.162Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:42.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T11:30:50.349Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2430, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 2696, "predictions_count": 4260, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1063, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T15:08:55.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:43.582Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T15:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T11:30:50.364Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2431, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 2696, "predictions_count": 4260, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1063, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T15:05:27.598Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:44.168Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 4582, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-04-09T13:49:15.113Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 82, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "57%", "description": "UK prime minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she attempts to navigate Brexit (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-pushes-no-confidence-vote-in-theresa-may/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 July 2019. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-07-01T06:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1063, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:15:14.008+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:33.254+00:00"}, "name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 4260, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 2696, "published_at": "2018-12-21T11:30:50.440Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T15:08:55.640Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-21T03:30:50.440-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-21T11:00:31.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.993Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1036 |
Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of December 2018 by the <a href = "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000"target="_blank">U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in January.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The question closed D: Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive, with a December 2018 U3 unemployment rate of 3.9%.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.300Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2341, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 3.4%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 590, "predictions_count": 871, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1036, "question_name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:59.410Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:16.668Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.373Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2342, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 3.4% and 3.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 590, "predictions_count": 871, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1036, "question_name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:16.722Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:17.325Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.410Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2343, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 3.5% but less than 3.7%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 590, "predictions_count": 871, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1036, "question_name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:03.818Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:18.331Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.470Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2344, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 590, "predictions_count": 871, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1036, "question_name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:32:15.308Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:19.497Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-04T16:29:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.517Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2345, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 590, "predictions_count": 871, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1036, "question_name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:31:07.103Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:20.380Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 913, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-11-28T20:31:39.942Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 33, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "45%", "description": "\r\nOutcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of December 2018 by the <a href = \"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000\"target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in January. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe question closed D: Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive, with a December 2018 U3 unemployment rate of 3.9%.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-01T07:59:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1036, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:58:25.182+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:17.427+00:00"}, "name": "What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 871, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 590, "published_at": "2018-11-01T20:15:46.861Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-04T16:33:59.450Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-01T20:59:57.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-02T03:59:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/905 | President Trump has accepted a preliminary invitation for a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong Un, but a neither a date nor a location for the meeting has been set (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43345209"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/south-koreans-deliver-letter-trump-kim-jong-un-n855051"target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/09/the-big-unknown-in-a-trump-kim-meeting-location-location-location/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/world/asia/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting-.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un met in Singapore. This question closed as "Yes, somewhere not listed above" with an end date of 11 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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"updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:51.319Z"}], "answers_count": 12, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2175, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-31T18:18:55.750Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "87%", "description": "President Trump has accepted a preliminary invitation for a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong Un, but a neither a date nor a location for the meeting has been set (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43345209\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/south-koreans-deliver-letter-trump-kim-jong-un-n855051\"target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/09/the-big-unknown-in-a-trump-kim-meeting-location-location-location/\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/world/asia/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting-.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nPresident Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un met in Singapore. This question closed as \"Yes, somewhere not listed above\" with an end date of 11 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 905, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:15.368+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:44.525+00:00"}, "name": "Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 July 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1714, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 360, "published_at": "2018-03-21T16:45:38.694Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-12T15:22:49.677Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-11T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-03-21T10:00:46.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-03-21T17:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/642 | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES’ column for events in which the 'COUNTRY’ is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE’ is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:23.628Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1331, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 197, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 642, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T20:57:36.399Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:19.317Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:23.649Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1332, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 40 and 100, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 197, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 642, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T20:57:39.261Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:19.637Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:23.676Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1333, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 197, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 642, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T20:57:37.834Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:19.928Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 218, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-23T19:32:20.918Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 8, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "60%", "description": "The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the \"Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File\" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = \"http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/\"target=\"_blank\">ACLED</a>). The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES\u2019 column for events in which the 'COUNTRY\u2019 is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE\u2019 is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.\u00a0\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 642, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:23.099+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:02.823+00:00"}, "name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 197, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2017-10-11T14:57:29.544Z", "resolution_notes": ["Value: 55\r\nhttps://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T20:57:39.270Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-11T09:00:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-11T16:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/650 | On September 28, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe <a href = "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-japan-snap-election-20170927-story.html"target="_blank">dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives</a>, paving the way for snap elections to be held on <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election/japan-calls-snap-election-as-new-party-roils-outlook-idUSKCN1C23AO"target="_blank">October 22</a> (<a href = "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-s-Abe-making-risky-bet-on-snap-election"target="_blank">Nikkei</a>; <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-12/polls-show-abe-may-keep-two-thirds-majority-in-japan-s-election"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Seats won by any current or potential coalition partners, including Komeito, are immaterial to the resolution of this question.
<hr>
The Liberal Democratic Party won 284 seats in the election for Japan's House of Representatives (<a href = "https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2017/"target="_blank">NHK</a>). This question closed as "c) 276-285," with an end date of 21 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-21T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-16T14:40:04.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1349, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 232", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 47, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 650, "question_name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:05.127Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:25.562Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-21T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-16T14:40:04.992Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1350, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "232 - 275", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 47, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 650, "question_name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:06.545Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:25.740Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-21T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-16T14:40:05.052Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1352, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "276 - 285", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 47, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 650, "question_name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:07.722Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.072Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-21T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-16T14:40:05.119Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1353, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "286 - 310", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 47, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 650, "question_name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:09.048Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.237Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-21T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-16T14:40:05.026Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1351, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 310", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 47, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 650, "question_name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:10.623Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:25.886Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 53, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "On September 28, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe <a href = \"http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-japan-snap-election-20170927-story.html\"target=\"_blank\">dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives</a>, paving the way for snap elections to be held on <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election/japan-calls-snap-election-as-new-party-roils-outlook-idUSKCN1C23AO\"target=\"_blank\">October 22</a> (<a href = \"https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-s-Abe-making-risky-bet-on-snap-election\"target=\"_blank\">Nikkei</a>; <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-12/polls-show-abe-may-keep-two-thirds-majority-in-japan-s-election\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). Seats won by any current or potential coalition partners, including Komeito, are immaterial to the resolution of this question.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe Liberal Democratic Party won 284 seats in the election for Japan's House of Representatives (<a href = \"https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2017/\"target=\"_blank\">NHK</a>). This question closed as \"c) 276-285,\" with an end date of 21 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2017-10-22T03:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 650, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:31.501+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:19.026+00:00"}, "name": "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 47, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 36, "published_at": "2017-10-18T14:43:47.829Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-31T15:32:10.649Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-18T09:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-18T16:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/534 | Tensions between Qatar and other GCC states have come to a head, with a number of GCC members breaking off diplomatic relations (<a href = "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-gcc-qatar-crisis-explained-all-you-need-to-know_us_5947b9ece4b024b7e0df4daf"target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/06/qatar-gcc-saudi-arabia-yemen-bahrain/529227/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href= "https://www.csis.org/analysis/qatar-crisis-turmoil-gcc"target="_blank">CSIS</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/10/politics/secret-documents-qatar-crisis-gulf-saudi/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/27/what-the-qatar-crisis-shows-about-the-middle-east/"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.
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There was no announcement Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:40:09.321Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1066, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 October 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 602, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 534, "question_name": "When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:32:31.934Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:11.357Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:40:09.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1067, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 602, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 534, "question_name": "When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:31:37.662Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:11.543Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:40:09.361Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1068, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 602, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 534, "question_name": "When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:30:39.825Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:11.810Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 618, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-07-18T17:56:38.072Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 166, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Tensions between Qatar and other GCC states have come to a head, with a number of GCC members breaking off diplomatic relations (<a href = \"http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-gcc-qatar-crisis-explained-all-you-need-to-know_us_5947b9ece4b024b7e0df4daf\"target=\"_blank\">Huffington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/06/qatar-gcc-saudi-arabia-yemen-bahrain/529227/\"target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href= \"https://www.csis.org/analysis/qatar-crisis-turmoil-gcc\"target=\"_blank\">CSIS</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/10/politics/secret-documents-qatar-crisis-gulf-saudi/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/27/what-the-qatar-crisis-shows-about-the-middle-east/\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.\r\n<hr>\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"http://www.gjopen.com/questions/303-before-1-november-2017-will-the-us-impose-economic-sanctions-on-iran-for-activities-related-to-a-nuclear-program\"target=\"_blank\">Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?</a>\r\n<a href= \"http://www.gjopen.com/questions/279-will-negotiations-on-a-china-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-free-trade-agreement-be-completed-before-1-october-2017\"target=\"_blank\">Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?</a>\r\n<a href = \"http://www.gjopen.com/questions/200-will-saudi-arabia-list-shares-of-saudi-aramco-in-an-initial-public-offering-before-1-january-2018\"target=\"_blank\"Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?</a>\r\n</sub>\r\n\r\nThere was no announcement Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This question closed as \"Not before 1 January 2018\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 534, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:52.635+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:51.706+00:00"}, "name": "When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 602, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 204, "published_at": "2017-07-18T15:40:09.474Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:32:32.098Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-18T10:00:10.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-18T17:00:10.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/902 | The 2018 Indiana U.S. Senate race was described by Politico as being "the GOPÍs best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" (<a href = "https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2017/08/14/missouris-10-million-man-221850"target="_blank">Politico</a>). The Republican primary is expected to be especially competitive and contentious (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ap-fact-check-gop-senate-hopefuls-twist-truth-in-nasty-race/2018/02/27/efb720f8-1c1b-11e8-98f5-ceecfa8741b6_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Mike Braun won the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race (<a href = "https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/columnists/tim-swarens/2018/05/08/indiana-primary-election-senate-race-results-mike-braun-wins-over-congressmen-rokita-and-messer/581393002/"target="_blank">IndyStar</a>). This question closed as "Mike Braun" with an end date of 8 May 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-08T17:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T16:09:02.137Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1987, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Luke Messer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 902, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-10T18:53:53.515Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:43.411Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-08T17:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T16:09:02.183Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1988, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Todd Rokita", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 902, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-10T18:53:47.655Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:43.740Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-08T17:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T16:09:02.230Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1989, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mike Braun", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 902, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-10T18:53:50.407Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:44.026Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-08T17:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2018-03-14T16:09:02.273Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1990, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 120, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 902, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-10T18:53:55.530Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:44.249Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 138, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-09T00:16:59.697Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "The 2018 Indiana U.S. Senate race was described by Politico as being \"the GOP\u00cds best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats\" (<a href = \"https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2017/08/14/missouris-10-million-man-221850\"target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). The Republican primary is expected to be especially competitive and contentious (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ap-fact-check-gop-senate-hopefuls-twist-truth-in-nasty-race/2018/02/27/efb720f8-1c1b-11e8-98f5-ceecfa8741b6_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nMike Braun won the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race (<a href = \"https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/columnists/tim-swarens/2018/05/08/indiana-primary-election-senate-race-results-mike-braun-wins-over-congressmen-rokita-and-messer/581393002/\"target=\"_blank\">IndyStar</a>). This question closed as \"Mike Braun\" with an end date of 8 May 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-05-09T18:59:11.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 902, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:01.332+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:41.405+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 120, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 45, "published_at": "2018-03-14T16:09:02.449Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-10T18:53:55.550Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-05-08T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-03-14T10:00:11.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:11.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/676 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php"target="_blank">U.S. Energy Information Administration</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T12:30:31.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-31T14:43:34.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1425, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $54.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 136, "predictions_count": 427, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 676, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:30:54.017Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.575Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T12:30:31.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-31T14:43:34.516Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1426, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $54.00 and $57.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 136, "predictions_count": 427, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 676, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:30:58.837Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.740Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T12:30:31.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-31T14:43:34.609Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1427, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $57.30 but less than $60.10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 136, "predictions_count": 427, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 676, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:31:02.881Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.924Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T12:30:31.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-31T14:43:34.676Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1428, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $60.10 and $63.40, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 136, "predictions_count": 427, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 676, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:31:07.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:33.043Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T12:30:31.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-31T14:43:34.748Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1429, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $63.40", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 136, "predictions_count": 427, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 676, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:31:12.690Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:33.126Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 459, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-07T00:27:56.472Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "63%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = \"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php\"target=\"_blank\">U.S. Energy Information Administration</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-10T07:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 676, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:33.592+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:23.858+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 427, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 136, "published_at": "2017-11-01T14:59:58.862Z", "resolution_notes": ["Value: $64.35\r\nhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D\r\n"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T19:31:12.715Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-01T09:00:38.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-01T16:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/435 | Burundi, South Africa, and Gambia submitted official notification to the UN of their intent to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in 2016, but South Africa and Gambia later withdrew their notification (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/21/burundi-promised-more-countries-would-withdraw-from-the-icc-now-south-africa-has/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=pr1248"target="_blank">International Criminal Court</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/08/world/africa/south-africa-icc-withdrawal.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). According to the Rome statute, a state must submit written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations of its intent to withdraw; the withdrawal takes effect one year after submission (see Article 127.1 on page 56 of the Rome Statute <a href = "https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/Documents/RS-Eng.pdf"target="_blank">here</a>). All notifications regarding the Rome Statute can be found <a href = "https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab2&clang=_en"target="_blank">here</a> by selecting "Treaty Reference: XVIII-10". Any country that submits a notification between 14 March 2017 and 14 March 2018 will count, regardless of whether it later withdraws that notification.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<a href = "https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab2&clang=_en"target="_blank">No countries</a> submitted written notification between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018 to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC . This question closed as "0" with an end date of 16 March 2018. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-16T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.353Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 867, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 208, "predictions_count": 669, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 435, "question_name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:23:59.644Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:58.087Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-16T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.374Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 868, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 208, "predictions_count": 669, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 435, "question_name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:25:13.479Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:58.284Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-16T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.388Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 869, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 208, "predictions_count": 669, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 435, "question_name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:26:33.462Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:00.852Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-16T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.403Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 870, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3-5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 208, "predictions_count": 669, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 435, "question_name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:22:44.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:00.971Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-16T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.417Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 871, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 208, "predictions_count": 669, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 435, "question_name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:21:24.677Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:01.840Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 725, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-05-30T15:53:27.027Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 290, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "21%", "description": "Burundi, South Africa, and Gambia submitted official notification to the UN of their intent to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in 2016, but South Africa and Gambia later withdrew their notification (<a href = \"http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/21/burundi-promised-more-countries-would-withdraw-from-the-icc-now-south-africa-has/\" target=\"_blank\">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = \"https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=pr1248\"target=\"_blank\">International Criminal Court</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/08/world/africa/south-africa-icc-withdrawal.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>). According to the Rome statute, a state must submit written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations of its intent to withdraw; the withdrawal takes effect one year after submission (see Article 127.1 on page 56 of the Rome Statute <a href = \"https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/Documents/RS-Eng.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>). All notifications regarding the Rome Statute can be found <a href = \"https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab2&clang=_en\"target=\"_blank\">here</a> by selecting \"Treaty Reference: XVIII-10\". Any country that submits a notification between 14 March 2017 and 14 March 2018 will count, regardless of whether it later withdraws that notification.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<a href = \"https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab2&clang=_en\"target=\"_blank\">No countries</a> submitted written notification between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018 to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC . This question closed as \"0\" with an end date of 16 March 2018.", "ends_at": "2018-03-17T06:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 435, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:28:07.231+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:13.241+00:00"}, "name": "Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 669, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 208, "published_at": "2017-03-16T16:29:22.511Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:26:33.704Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-16T10:00:48.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-16T17:00:48.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/192 | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa in near-real time (<a href="http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data-2016/" target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The answer to this question will be obtained by summing the numbers in the 'FATALITIES' field for ACLED records in which 1) 'COUNTRY' is "Democratic Republic of the Congo", 2) 'EVENT_DATE' is between May 1 and December 31, 2016 (inclusive), and 3) either a) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Violence against civilians" or b) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Remote violence" and 'ACTOR2' is "Civilians (Democratic Republic of the Congo)." Forecasting will be suspended at 11:59 PM Pacific Time on 31 December 2016. ACLED updates weekly, but the updates sometimes include additions or revisions to prior data, so the question will not be resolved until the end of January 2017.
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/189" target="_blank">Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?</a>
This question was closed as a "350-750, inclusive" with an end date of 31 December 2016. ACLED recorded 499 civilian fatalities in the DRC between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016 (<a href = http://www.acleddata.com/data/acled-version-7-1997-2016/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:49:31.342Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 366, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Fewer than 350", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 115, "predictions_count": 847, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 192, "question_name": "How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T19:57:34.867Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:42.169Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:49:51.948Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 367, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "350-750, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 115, "predictions_count": 847, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 192, "question_name": "How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T19:56:16.819Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:42.584Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:50:08.155Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 368, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "More than 750", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 115, "predictions_count": 847, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 192, "question_name": "How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T19:56:55.751Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:42.960Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 867, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-05-06T03:51:12.606Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 240, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa in near-real time (<a href=\"http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data-2016/\" target=\"_blank\">ACLED</a>). The answer to this question will be obtained by summing the numbers in the 'FATALITIES' field for ACLED records in which 1) 'COUNTRY' is \"Democratic Republic of the Congo\", 2) 'EVENT_DATE' is between May 1 and December 31, 2016 (inclusive), and 3) either a) 'EVENT_TYPE' is \"Violence against civilians\" or b) 'EVENT_TYPE' is \"Remote violence\" and 'ACTOR2' is \"Civilians (Democratic Republic of the Congo).\" Forecasting will be suspended at 11:59 PM Pacific Time on 31 December 2016. ACLED updates weekly, but the updates sometimes include additions or revisions to prior data, so the question will not be resolved until the end of January 2017.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/189\" target=\"_blank\">Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as a \"350-750, inclusive\" with an end date of 31 December 2016. ACLED recorded 499 civilian fatalities in the DRC between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016 (<a href = http://www.acleddata.com/data/acled-version-7-1997-2016/\"target=\"_blank\">ACLED</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 192, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:04:35.707+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:03:27.174+00:00"}, "name": "How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 847, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 115, "published_at": "2016-05-03T16:50:34.107Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T19:57:34.923Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-03T10:00:14.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-03T17:00:14.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.845Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1045 | Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUUSD:CUR"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive, with an end date of 28 December 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-12-28T21:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:39.946Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2374, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $1,150", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 679, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1045, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:47:39.303Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:43.227Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-12-28T21:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:39.969Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2375, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1,150 and $1,200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 679, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1045, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:46:38.187Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:43.630Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-12-28T21:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:39.991Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2376, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1,200 but less than $1,250", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 679, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1045, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:45:27.803Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:43.942Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-12-28T21:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:40.014Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2377, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 679, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1045, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:44:27.000Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:44.267Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-12-28T21:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:40.034Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2378, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1,300", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 679, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1045, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:43:20.780Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:44.520Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 725, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-12-23T20:10:22.191Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "90%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUUSD:CUR\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive, with an end date of 28 December 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-12-28T07:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1045, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:09.527+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:34.449+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 679, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 265, "published_at": "2018-11-16T16:04:40.100Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-29T21:47:39.431Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-12-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-16T10:00:56.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-16T18:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/635 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href="https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm" target="_blank">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable via download or on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:11.984Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1313, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 1.68", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 635, "question_name": "What will the short-term interest rate be for Australia (AUS) in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:45.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:15.890Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:12.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1314, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1.68 and 1.72, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 635, "question_name": "What will the short-term interest rate be for Australia (AUS) in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:56.031Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:16.015Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:12.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1315, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1.72", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 635, "question_name": "What will the short-term interest rate be for Australia (AUS) in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:58.482Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:16.316Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 208, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-05T14:49:35.860Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 25, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href=\"https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\" target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable via download or on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. \u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T06:59:05.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 635, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:18.913+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:56.940+00:00"}, "name": "What will the short-term interest rate be for Australia (AUS) in October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 193, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 77, "published_at": "2017-10-04T13:28:50.219Z", "resolution_notes": ["Value: 1.70\r\nhttps://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:58.496Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-04T09:00:05.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-04T16:00:05.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/996 | Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running for re-election against Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:09:57.671Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2235, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ted Cruz (R)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 996, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:24:34.417Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:06.404Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:09:57.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2236, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Beto O'Rourke (D)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 996, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:24:02.418Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:07.015Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:09:57.740Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2237, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 996, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:23:28.162Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:07.454Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 364, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-09-08T12:38:10.754Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 58, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running for re-election against Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = \"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html\"target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 996, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:21.916+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:24.515+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 317, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 149, "published_at": "2018-09-07T15:09:57.839Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:24:34.554Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-09-07T10:00:24.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-09-07T17:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1041 | Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10808-The-race-to-develop-the-next-generation-battery" target="_blank">China Dialogue</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b0414a1c-8042-11e8-af48-190d103e32a4" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2019, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study (<a href="https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf" target="_blank">The Stockholm Environment Institute</a>). The Mack Institute found that "there was a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2017, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh" (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2018/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">The Mack Institute</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh" with a closing date of 1 January 2020. The Mack Institute's analysis for 2019 resulted in an estimated 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries of $160.96 (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">Mack Institute</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:15.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:55.981Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2358, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $140 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1041, "question_name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:41:08.308Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:31.072Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:15.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:56.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2359, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $140 and $155 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1041, "question_name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:41:02.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:32.195Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:15.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:56.035Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2360, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1041, "question_name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:40:56.808Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:33.032Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:15.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:56.059Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2361, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $170 and $185 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1041, "question_name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:40:51.241Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:33.989Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-02T07:59:15.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:56.084Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2362, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $185 kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 191, "predictions_count": 492, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1041, "question_name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:40:45.914Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:34.769Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 535, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-06-06T08:25:28.052Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 208, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "49%", "description": "Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href=\"https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10808-The-race-to-develop-the-next-generation-battery\" target=\"_blank\">China Dialogue</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b0414a1c-8042-11e8-af48-190d103e32a4\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2019, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study (<a href=\"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">The Stockholm Environment Institute</a>). The Mack Institute found that \"there was a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2017, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh\" (<a href=\"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2018/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\" target=\"_blank\">The Mack Institute</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh\" with a closing date of 1 January 2020. The Mack Institute's analysis for 2019 resulted in an estimated 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries of $160.96 (<a href=\"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\" target=\"_blank\">Mack Institute</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-01T07:59:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1041, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:55:38.459+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:29.125+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:48:30.881+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:35:08.131+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 492, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 191, "published_at": "2018-11-16T15:50:56.179Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-19T19:41:08.324Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-16T10:00:48.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-16T18:00:48.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.976Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/499 | The historic Colombia-FARC peace agreement stipulated that the FARC could register as a political party once disarmament was complete (<a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/01/Proposal-grants-Colombias-FARC-equal-rights-as-political-party/9561485972858/" target="_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href="http://colombiareports.com/better-late-never-colombias-farc-rebels-begin-effective-demobilization/" target="_blank">Colombia Reports 1/10/2017</a> , <a href="https://colombiareports.com/farc-meets-revised-first-disarmament-deadline-un/" target="_blank">Colombia Reports 6/8/2017</a> , <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKBN18W2PT" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The FARC has said it is committed to forming a political party, a process which could involve Voices of Peace and Reconciliation or the establishment of a new organization (<a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/FARC-Will-Become-Open-Democratic-Political-Party-in-May-20170123-0006.html" target="_blank">Telesur</a>, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/12/16/colombias-farc-takes-first-step-toward-forming-political-party.html" target="_blank">Fox News</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/492-when-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela" target="_blank">When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela? </a>
</sub>
Posted 5 October 2017: Good Judgment has been asked if the Alternative Revolutionary Force for the Common People (FARC) <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-politics/colombias-farc-political-party-looks-to-coalition-for-2018-elections-idUSKCN1BC62J"target="_blank">party convention</a> in September closes this question. While this is an important part of the process of forming a party, Good Judgment has not seen evidence to suggest they have registered. A recently released <a href ="http://farc-epeace.org/peace-process/news/item/2569-conclusions-first-plenary-of-the-national-council-of-the-people.html"target="_blank">message by the FARC</a> indicated in mid-September the paperwork for formal registration was still being worked on and while most coverage points to registration <a href = "http://www.rcnradio.com/nacional/farc-se-oficializaran-partido-politico-ante-consejo-nacional-electoral/"target="_blank">happening in the near future</a>, none of them confirm registration.
<hr>
The FARC registered as a new political party on 9 October 2017. (<a href = "https://www.infobae.com/america/colombia/2017/10/10/las-farc-se-inscribieron-como-partido-politico-para-las-elecciones-de-2018-en-colombia/"target="_blank">Infobae</a>, <a href = "http://www.worldnewsenespanol.com/309_hispanic-world/4862008_farc-former-rebels-register-party-for-colombia-s-2018-election.html"target="_blank">Global Media Federation Company</a>). This question closed as “Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive,” with an end date of 9 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-09T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T16:23:11.895Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 993, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 30 September 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 657, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 499, "question_name": "When will the FARC register a new political party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-12T16:17:27.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:45.114Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-09T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T16:23:11.940Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 994, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 657, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 499, "question_name": "When will the FARC register a new political party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-12T16:17:16.092Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:45.600Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-09T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T16:23:11.988Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 995, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 657, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 499, "question_name": "When will the FARC register a new political party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-12T16:17:05.272Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:45.836Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 740, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-22T16:17:35.892Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 17, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "86%", "description": "The historic Colombia-FARC peace agreement stipulated that the FARC could register as a political party once disarmament was complete (<a href=\"http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/01/Proposal-grants-Colombias-FARC-equal-rights-as-political-party/9561485972858/\" target=\"_blank\">United Press International</a>, <a href=\"http://colombiareports.com/better-late-never-colombias-farc-rebels-begin-effective-demobilization/\" target=\"_blank\">Colombia Reports 1/10/2017</a> , <a href=\"https://colombiareports.com/farc-meets-revised-first-disarmament-deadline-un/\" target=\"_blank\">Colombia Reports 6/8/2017</a> , <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKBN18W2PT\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The FARC has said it is committed to forming a political party, a process which could involve Voices of Peace and Reconciliation or the establishment of a new organization (<a href=\"http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/FARC-Will-Become-Open-Democratic-Political-Party-in-May-20170123-0006.html\" target=\"_blank\">Telesur</a>, <a href=\"http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/12/16/colombias-farc-takes-first-step-toward-forming-political-party.html\" target=\"_blank\">Fox News</a>).\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>Recommended Questions: \r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/492-when-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela\" target=\"_blank\">When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela? </a>\r\n</sub>\r\n\r\nPosted 5 October 2017: Good Judgment has been asked if the Alternative Revolutionary Force for the Common People (FARC) <a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-politics/colombias-farc-political-party-looks-to-coalition-for-2018-elections-idUSKCN1BC62J\"target=\"_blank\">party convention</a> in September closes this question. While this is an important part of the process of forming a party, Good Judgment has not seen evidence to suggest they have registered. A recently released <a href =\"http://farc-epeace.org/peace-process/news/item/2569-conclusions-first-plenary-of-the-national-council-of-the-people.html\"target=\"_blank\">message by the FARC</a> indicated in mid-September the paperwork for formal registration was still being worked on and while most coverage points to registration <a href = \"http://www.rcnradio.com/nacional/farc-se-oficializaran-partido-politico-ante-consejo-nacional-electoral/\"target=\"_blank\">happening in the near future</a>, none of them confirm registration.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe FARC registered as a new political party on 9 October 2017. (<a href = \"https://www.infobae.com/america/colombia/2017/10/10/las-farc-se-inscribieron-como-partido-politico-para-las-elecciones-de-2018-en-colombia/\"target=\"_blank\">Infobae</a>, <a href = \"http://www.worldnewsenespanol.com/309_hispanic-world/4862008_farc-former-rebels-register-party-for-colombia-s-2018-election.html\"target=\"_blank\">Global Media Federation Company</a>). This question closed as \u201cBetween 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive,\u201d with an end date of 9 October 2017. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-31T07:59:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 499, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:41.643+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:53.334+00:00"}, "name": "When will the FARC register a new political party?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 657, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 93, "published_at": "2017-06-13T16:23:12.276Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-12T16:17:27.344Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-09T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-13T10:00:24.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-13T17:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/699 | Italy is legally required to hold a general election in 2018. The populist Five Star Movement finished third in the 2013 general election and has seen strong support in recent polling (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-5star/italys-5-star-names-youthful-new-leader-as-election-nears-idUSKCN1BY0UN"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/24/italys-five-star-movement-welcomes-support-from-rivals-but-says-it-wont-give-up-cabinet-seats-in-any-coalition-deal.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://qz.com/1043777/italy-is-bearing-the-brunt-of-europes-migrant-crisis-boosting-populists-with-radical-ideas/"target="_blank">Quarts</a>, <a href = "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/italy-looms-eurozones-horizon"target="_blank">Stratfor</a>). The Five Star Movement has so far refused alliances with other parties, but the new electoral law incentivizes broad pre-election coalitions (<a href = "https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-parliament-approves-controversial-electoral-law/"target="_blank">Politico</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "d) Between 201 and 340, inclusive" with an end date of 4 March 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-04T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.113Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1490, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 699, "question_name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:23:23.831Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:30.945Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-04T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.172Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1491, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 50 and 87, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 699, "question_name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:25:09.108Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:31.199Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-04T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.205Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1492, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 88 and 200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 699, "question_name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:24:42.677Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:31.591Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-04T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1493, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 201 and 340, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 699, "question_name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:24:15.513Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:31.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-04T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.359Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1494, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 340", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 652, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 699, "question_name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:23:48.987Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:32.442Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 705, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Italy is legally required to hold a general election in 2018. The populist Five Star Movement finished third in the 2013 general election and has seen strong support in recent polling (<a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-5star/italys-5-star-names-youthful-new-leader-as-election-nears-idUSKCN1BY0UN\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/24/italys-five-star-movement-welcomes-support-from-rivals-but-says-it-wont-give-up-cabinet-seats-in-any-coalition-deal.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"https://qz.com/1043777/italy-is-bearing-the-brunt-of-europes-migrant-crisis-boosting-populists-with-radical-ideas/\"target=\"_blank\">Quarts</a>, <a href = \"https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/italy-looms-eurozones-horizon\"target=\"_blank\">Stratfor</a>). The Five Star Movement has so far refused alliances with other parties, but the new electoral law incentivizes broad pre-election coalitions (<a href = \"https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-parliament-approves-controversial-electoral-law/\"target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"d) Between 201 and 340, inclusive\" with an end date of 4 March 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-05-20T06:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 699, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:27.964+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:02.804+00:00"}, "name": "How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 652, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 368, "published_at": "2017-11-21T17:10:35.470Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-27T15:25:09.212Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-04T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/247 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of Georgia on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
The presidential race in Georgia is likely to be competitive (<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:32:12.398Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 465, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 428, "predictions_count": 1371, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 247, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:44:27.968Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:33.317Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:32:12.414Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 466, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 428, "predictions_count": 1371, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 247, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:45:01.003Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:33.950Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:32:12.430Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 467, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 428, "predictions_count": 1371, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 247, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:45:30.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:34.395Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1387, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-07-29T17:03:58.253Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 102, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of Georgia on November 8. (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe presidential race in Georgia is likely to be competitive (<a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/248\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/249\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:11.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 247, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:20.334+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:08:40.822+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1371, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 428, "published_at": "2016-07-29T15:32:12.489Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:45:30.939Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-29T10:00:11.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-29T17:00:11.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/688 | This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> in the "Sunday's Broadcast Ratings" summary of 12 November 2017.
Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:
10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic </a>)
NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
According to <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> 15.329 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on November 12th. This question closed as "c) More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million," with an end date of 13 November 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.352Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1452, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 48, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 688, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:52.721Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:37.772Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.408Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1453, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 48, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 688, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:49.963Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:39.204Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.456Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1454, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 48, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 688, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:47.784Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:40.868Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.513Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1455, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 48, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 688, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:46.064Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:43.013Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-13T18:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.560Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1456, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 16 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 48, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 688, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:44.424Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:43.910Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 51, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 12 November 2017. \r\n\r\nFast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows: \r\n\r\n10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic </a>)\r\n\r\nNOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nAccording to <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> 15.329 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on November 12th. This question closed as \"c) More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million,\" with an end date of 13 November 2017.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-13T07:59:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 688, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:32.159+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:19.532+00:00"}, "name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 48, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 31, "published_at": "2017-11-09T22:27:29.673Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-14T16:17:52.766Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-12T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-10T10:00:41.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-10T18:00:41.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/990 | Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is running for re-election against Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = "https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/20/politics/joe-manchin-leads-new-west-virginia-poll/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:07:25.107Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2212, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Joe Manchin (D)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 990, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:22:30.149Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:53.642Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:07:25.132Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2213, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Patrick Morrisey (R)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 990, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:22:00.925Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:54.169Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:07:25.156Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2214, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 990, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:21:30.957Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:54.517Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 319, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-07-18T17:11:40.459Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 110, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is running for re-election against Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = \"https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/20/politics/joe-manchin-leads-new-west-virginia-poll/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:07.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 990, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:55.001+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:03.668+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 306, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2018-07-18T15:07:25.254Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:22:30.409Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-07-18T10:00:07.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-07-18T17:00:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/551 | Despite Spain's objections, the Catalan government has declared it will hold a referendum later this year (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/09/catalonia-calls-independence-referendum-for-october-spain"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/spain-catalonia-independence-refererendum.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia-idUSKBN19P1ZZ"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Catalan Government held a public vote on 1 October 2017, and a majority voted in favor of independence.
(<a href = "http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/infographics/303482/catalan-referendum-results.html"target="_blank">Catalan Government</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/europe/catalonia-spain-independence-referendum-result/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia/catalan-leader-opens-door-to-secession-from-spain-after-vote-idUSKCN1C60YA"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-turn-out-in-catalonia-for-independence-referendum-1506838287"target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/news/303470/president-puigdemont-today-catalonia-gained-sovereignty-respect.html"target="_blank">Catalan Government</a>). This question closed as "a) Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence," with an end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:30:25.489Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1114, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 653, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 551, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-03T16:44:24.505Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:43.897Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:30:25.508Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1115, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and a majority will vote against independence ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 653, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 551, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-03T16:44:07.746Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:44.485Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:30:25.536Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1116, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 653, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 551, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-03T16:43:53.309Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:44.661Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "A repeat of the 2014 vote would count (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29982960\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>)", "created_at": "2017-08-28T17:16:01.083Z", "id": 12, "question_id": 551, "updated_at": "2017-08-28T17:16:01.083Z"}], "comments_count": 792, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-30T21:02:46.053Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "Despite Spain's objections, the Catalan government has declared it will hold a referendum later this year (<a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/09/catalonia-calls-independence-referendum-for-october-spain\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/spain-catalonia-independence-refererendum.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia-idUSKBN19P1ZZ\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe Catalan Government held a public vote on 1 October 2017, and a majority voted in favor of independence.\r\n(<a href = \"http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/infographics/303482/catalan-referendum-results.html\"target=\"_blank\">Catalan Government</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/europe/catalonia-spain-independence-referendum-result/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia/catalan-leader-opens-door-to-secession-from-spain-after-vote-idUSKCN1C60YA\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-turn-out-in-catalonia-for-independence-referendum-1506838287\"target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = \"http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/news/303470/president-puigdemont-today-catalonia-gained-sovereignty-respect.html\"target=\"_blank\">Catalan Government</a>). This question closed as \"a) Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence,\" with an end date of 1 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 551, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:08.948+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:05.648+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 653, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 185, "published_at": "2017-08-08T15:30:25.769Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-03T16:44:24.566Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-08T10:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-08T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/437 | The 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on 3 April 2017 in Phoenix, AZ. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 27 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 2 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href = "http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1"target="_blank">NCAA</a>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/438"target="_blank">which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship</a></sub>
This question closed as "UNC" with an end date of 3 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/redemption-tar-heels-take-ncaa-title-71-65-over-gonzaga/ar-BBzi9yd?OCID=ansmsnnews11"target="_blank">MSN</a>; <a href = "http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men/d1/2017/04/03/gonzaga-north-carolina"target="_blank">NCAA</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-03T17:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:18:11.838Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 873, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "South Carolina", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 208, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 437, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-04T17:12:36.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:02.650Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-03T17:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:18:11.861Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 874, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Oregon", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 208, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 437, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-04T17:12:39.055Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:03.462Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-03T17:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:18:11.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 875, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "North Carolina", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 208, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 437, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-04T17:12:41.220Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:03.782Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-03T17:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:18:11.891Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 876, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Gonzaga", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 208, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 437, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-04T17:12:43.185Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.016Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 212, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-03-19T20:42:07.312Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "12%", "description": "The 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on 3 April 2017 in Phoenix, AZ. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 27 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 2 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href = \"http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1\"target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/438\"target=\"_blank\">which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship</a></sub>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"UNC\" with an end date of 3 April 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/redemption-tar-heels-take-ncaa-title-71-65-over-gonzaga/ar-BBzi9yd?OCID=ansmsnnews11\"target=\"_blank\">MSN</a>; <a href = \"http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men/d1/2017/04/03/gonzaga-north-carolina\"target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-04-04T06:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 437, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:27:00.850+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:30.735+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 208, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 77, "published_at": "2017-03-17T15:18:11.999Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-04T17:12:43.198Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-04-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-17T10:00:39.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-17T17:00:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/531 | Attorney General Jeff Sessions has directed federal prosecutors to pursue the most severe penalties possible (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sessions-issues-sweeping-new-criminal-charging-policy/2017/05/11/4752bd42-3697-11e7-b373-418f6849a004_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/16/jeff-sessionss-war-on-drugs-will-be-less-consequential-than-many-believe-heres-why/?utm_term=.9d65f7222165"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/06/politics/mandatory-minimum-sentencing-debate/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the Federal Bureau of Prisons found <a href = "https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/population_statistics.jsp"target="_blank">here</a>. Question will be suspended on 30 March 2018 and closed when the data for 30 March is released, typically one week later.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "b) 180,001 to 185,000" with an end date of 31 March 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-31T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:58.885Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1051, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "180,000 or less", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 328, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 531, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:46:42.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:03.077Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-31T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:58.910Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1052, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "180,001 to 185,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 328, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 531, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:45:51.399Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:03.231Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-31T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:58.932Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1053, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "185,001 to 190,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 328, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 531, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:45:37.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:04.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-31T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:58.949Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1054, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "190,001 to 195,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 328, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 531, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:46:24.933Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:04.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-31T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:58.965Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1055, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "over 195,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 328, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 531, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:46:08.390Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:04.744Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1166, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-17T10:59:28.549Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 103, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "60%", "description": "Attorney General Jeff Sessions has directed federal prosecutors to pursue the most severe penalties possible (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sessions-issues-sweeping-new-criminal-charging-policy/2017/05/11/4752bd42-3697-11e7-b373-418f6849a004_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/16/jeff-sessionss-war-on-drugs-will-be-less-consequential-than-many-believe-heres-why/?utm_term=.9d65f7222165\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/06/politics/mandatory-minimum-sentencing-debate/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the Federal Bureau of Prisons found <a href = \"https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/population_statistics.jsp\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>. Question will be suspended on 30 March 2018 and closed when the data for 30 March is released, typically one week later. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"b) 180,001 to 185,000\" with an end date of 31 March 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-03-31T06:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 531, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:01.817+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:25.627+00:00"}, "name": "On 30 March 2018, what will be the U.S. federal prison population?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1117, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 328, "published_at": "2017-07-14T16:51:59.085Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-02T16:46:42.902Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-14T10:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-14T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/549 | This question will be resolved using <a href ="https://www.privacyrights.org/data-breaches"target="_blank">Privacy Rights Clearinghouse's Chronology of Data Breaches</a>. The relevant data can be found by selecting 'Hacking or Malware (HACK)' as the type of breach to display, selecting '2017' as the year, downloading the 'Data Breach File', and then counting the number of entries, for all organizations, in which 'Date Made Public' falls in September 2017. The question will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and scored using data downloaded from the online chronology on October 31. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T20:45:46.185Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1104, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 15", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 659, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 549, "question_name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:51:42.962Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:36.234Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T20:45:46.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1105, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 15 and 23, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 659, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 549, "question_name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:52:38.541Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:37.931Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T20:45:46.282Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1106, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 23 but less than 31", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 659, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 549, "question_name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:53:30.045Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:38.525Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T20:45:46.322Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1107, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 31 and 40, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 659, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 549, "question_name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:50:48.549Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:39.654Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T20:45:46.386Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1108, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 659, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 549, "question_name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:54:25.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:40.104Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 717, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using <a href =\"https://www.privacyrights.org/data-breaches\"target=\"_blank\">Privacy Rights Clearinghouse's Chronology of Data Breaches</a>. The relevant data can be found by selecting 'Hacking or Malware (HACK)' as the type of breach to display, selecting '2017' as the year, downloading the 'Data Breach File', and then counting the number of entries, for all organizations, in which 'Date Made Public' falls in September 2017. The question will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and scored using data downloaded from the online chronology on October 31.", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T03:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 549, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:11.191+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:00.998+00:00"}, "name": "How many 'hacking or malware (HACK)' data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 659, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 289, "published_at": "2017-08-09T16:45:34.032Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:54:25.593Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-09T09:45:39.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-09T16:45:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/160 | This question was closed with the correct answer "Republicans" and an end date of 8 November. The Republicans held onto their majority in the house.
For more information on house races see: <a href = "http://media.cq.com/raceratings/" target = "_blank">CQ Roll Call</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/264204-nine-house-races-to-watch" target = "_blank">The Hill</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-11T17:49:55.547Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 307, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Democrats", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 912, "predictions_count": 2454, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 160, "question_name": "Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-15T19:56:58.232Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:08.127Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-11T17:50:01.562Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 308, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Republicans", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 912, "predictions_count": 2454, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 160, "question_name": "Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-15T19:56:29.463Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:08.358Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2495, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-03-11T18:03:36.692Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 241, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer \"Republicans\" and an end date of 8 November. The Republicans held onto their majority in the house. \r\n\r\nFor more information on house races see: <a href = \"http://media.cq.com/raceratings/\" target = \"_blank\">CQ Roll Call</a>, <a href = \"http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/264204-nine-house-races-to-watch\" target = \"_blank\">The Hill</a>.", "ends_at": "2016-11-08T07:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 160, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:01:47.655+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:59:18.099+00:00"}, "name": "Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2454, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 912, "published_at": "2016-03-11T17:50:53.941Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-15T19:56:58.275Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-03-11T10:00:03.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-03-11T18:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/557 | This question will be resolved using data from the <a href = "http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015893"target="_blank">International Monetary Fund</a>, and can be found after adding “Estonia” from the Country drop down menu, and "Consumer Price Index, All Items" from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: “Estonia, Consumer Price Index, All Items,” and the relevant column will be "2017M08.” Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved based on initially reported values for August expected to published the first week of September 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-12T18:56:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:38:20.527Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1140, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than -.38", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 557, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T15:01:05.212Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:57.344Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-12T18:56:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:38:20.575Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1141, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between -.38 and -.14, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 557, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T15:00:43.862Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:58.089Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-12T18:56:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:38:20.625Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1142, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than -.14 but less than .06", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 557, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T14:59:50.401Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:58.560Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-12T18:56:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:38:20.693Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1143, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between .06 and .30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 557, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T15:00:05.158Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:59.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-12T18:56:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:38:20.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1144, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Greater than .30", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 557, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T15:00:25.380Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:00.738Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 133, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using data from the <a href = \"http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015893\"target=\"_blank\">International Monetary Fund</a>, and can be found after adding \u201cEstonia\u201d from the Country drop down menu, and \"Consumer Price Index, All Items\" from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: \u201cEstonia, Consumer Price Index, All Items,\u201d and the relevant column will be \"2017M08.\u201d Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved based on initially reported values for August expected to published the first week of September 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T03:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 557, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:32.556+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:09.046+00:00"}, "name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 123, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 57, "published_at": "2017-08-17T18:26:58.163Z", "resolution_notes": ["Used link from resolution criteria (data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015893). Results for Estonia are 0.39 or 39% which corresponds to the 5th bucket ('Greater then 30%')"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T15:01:05.457Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-17T11:26:58.163-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-16T16:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/213 | This question was closed with the answer "USA" on 22 August 2016 with an end date of 21 August 2016. The United States have won the gold medal count with 46 gold medals. Great Britain, China, Russia, and Germany round out the top five with 27, 26, 19, and 17 gold medals respectively (<a href="https://www.rio2016.com/en/medal-count-country" target="_blank">2016 Olympic Medal Count</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 20 August 2016.
The <a href="http://www.olympic.org/rio-2016-summer-olympics" target="_blank">2016 Olympic Games</a> will be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 5 August until 21 August. The United States, China, Great Britain, and Russia were the top four nations in the gold medal count at the 2012 London games (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/2012/medals/countries" target="_blank">BBC</a>). In the event of a tie in the gold medal count, we will use the total number of medals to serve as a tiebreaker.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44" target="_blank">Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-21T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.306Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 398, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Great Britain", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 628, "predictions_count": 1368, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 213, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:32:12.613Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:00.670Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-21T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.291Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 397, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "China", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 628, "predictions_count": 1368, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 213, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:32:26.674Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:00.144Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-21T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 400, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "USA", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 628, "predictions_count": 1368, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 213, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:32:40.096Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:01.707Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-21T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.353Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 401, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Another country", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 628, "predictions_count": 1368, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 213, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:32:52.546Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:02.130Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-21T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.320Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 399, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Russia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 628, "predictions_count": 1368, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 213, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:33:03.742Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:01.345Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1444, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-05-31T17:05:43.799Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 82, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the answer \"USA\" on 22 August 2016 with an end date of 21 August 2016. The United States have won the gold medal count with 46 gold medals. Great Britain, China, Russia, and Germany round out the top five with 27, 26, 19, and 17 gold medals respectively (<a href=\"https://www.rio2016.com/en/medal-count-country\" target=\"_blank\">2016 Olympic Medal Count</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 20 August 2016.\r\n\r\nThe <a href=\"http://www.olympic.org/rio-2016-summer-olympics\" target=\"_blank\">2016 Olympic Games</a> will be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 5 August until 21 August. The United States, China, Great Britain, and Russia were the top four nations in the gold medal count at the 2012 London games (<a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/2012/medals/countries\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). In the event of a tie in the gold medal count, we will use the total number of medals to serve as a tiebreaker.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/170\" target=\"_blank\">Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44\" target=\"_blank\">Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-08-23T06:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 213, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:09:15.860+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:34.229+00:00"}, "name": "Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1368, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 628, "published_at": "2016-05-31T16:43:06.406Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-22T16:33:03.751Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-08-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-31T10:00:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-31T17:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/648 | While Argentine President Macri's ruling Cambiemos ('Let's Change') coalition had a strong showing in August's primaries, ex-President Christine Fernandez de Kirchner's declared run for a Senate seat casts uncertainty over competing economic reform agendas (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/how-a-political-comeback-could-derail-argentina-quicktake-q-a"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/ARGENTINA-Primary-Election-Results-Benefit-Ruling-Coalition-BTG-Pactual-1002256984"target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href = "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/argentinas-economic-recovery-just-in-time-for-the-mid-term-elections-201709071716"target="_blank">FX Street</a>). Argentina's parliamentary elections are scheduled for 22 October 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Macri's ruling "Cambiemos" party won the most votes, but not a majority in mid-term elections (<a href = "http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2074396-elecciones-2017-quienes-entran-y-quienes-quedan-afuera-del-nuevo-congreso"target="_blank">La Nacion</a>). This question closed as "b) A plurality, but not a majority," with an end date of 22 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-22T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-10T16:10:15.066Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1345, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A majority", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 50, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 648, "question_name": "How many Senate seats will Cambiemos hold after Argentina's parliamentary elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-25T18:28:33.470Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:24.946Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-22T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-10T16:10:15.098Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1346, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A plurality, but not a majority", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 50, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 648, "question_name": "How many Senate seats will Cambiemos hold after Argentina's parliamentary elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-25T18:28:32.740Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:25.192Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-22T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-10T16:10:15.136Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1347, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than a plurality", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 31, "predictions_count": 50, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 648, "question_name": "How many Senate seats will Cambiemos hold after Argentina's parliamentary elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-25T18:28:32.137Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:25.328Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 84, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "While Argentine President Macri's ruling Cambiemos ('Let's Change') coalition had a strong showing in August's primaries, ex-President Christine Fernandez de Kirchner's declared run for a Senate seat casts uncertainty over competing economic reform agendas (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/how-a-political-comeback-could-derail-argentina-quicktake-q-a\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/ARGENTINA-Primary-Election-Results-Benefit-Ruling-Coalition-BTG-Pactual-1002256984\"target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>, <a href = \"https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/argentinas-economic-recovery-just-in-time-for-the-mid-term-elections-201709071716\"target=\"_blank\">FX Street</a>). Argentina's parliamentary elections are scheduled for 22 October 2017. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nMacri's ruling \"Cambiemos\" party won the most votes, but not a majority in mid-term elections (<a href = \"http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2074396-elecciones-2017-quienes-entran-y-quienes-quedan-afuera-del-nuevo-congreso\"target=\"_blank\">La Nacion</a>). This question closed as \"b) A plurality, but not a majority,\" with an end date of 22 October 2017.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-22T06:59:43.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 648, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:05.768+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:13.510+00:00"}, "name": "How many Senate seats will Cambiemos hold after Argentina's parliamentary elections?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 50, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 31, "published_at": "2017-10-10T16:10:15.352Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-25T18:28:33.484Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-10T10:00:43.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-10T17:00:43.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/118 | This question was closed with the answer "Hillary Clinton" on 27 July 2016 with an end date of 26 July 2016. On 26 July 2016, Hillary Clinton become the official nominee of the Democratic party (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-national-convention-supporters-hope-to-reintroduce-clinton-to-skeptical-voters/2016/07/26/6e8d244a-52ec-11e6-88eb-7dda4e2f2aec_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/dnc-speakers-sanders-clinton.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target=“_blank”>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target=“_blank”>Schedule</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123-will-the-republican-candidate-for-president-win-the-party-s-nomination-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-party-s-convention-in-july" target = "_blank">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot at the party's convention in July?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-26T23:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:07:15.421Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 199, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1819, "predictions_count": 4176, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 118, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-27T13:53:47.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:56.558Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-26T23:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:07:28.149Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 200, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Martin O\u2019Malley", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1819, "predictions_count": 4176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 118, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-27T13:54:50.599Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:57.175Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-26T23:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:07:40.078Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 201, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1819, "predictions_count": 4176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 118, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-27T13:56:06.019Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:58.347Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 4329, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-01-21T15:54:03.356Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 185, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the answer \"Hillary Clinton\" on 27 July 2016 with an end date of 26 July 2016. On 26 July 2016, Hillary Clinton become the official nominee of the Democratic party (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-national-convention-supporters-hope-to-reintroduce-clinton-to-skeptical-voters/2016/07/26/6e8d244a-52ec-11e6-88eb-7dda4e2f2aec_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/dnc-speakers-sanders-clinton.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\nFor more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Candidates</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Schedule</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election\" target = \"_blank\">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123-will-the-republican-candidate-for-president-win-the-party-s-nomination-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-party-s-convention-in-july\" target = \"_blank\">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot at the party's convention in July?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-07-25T06:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 118, "image": null, "membership_id": 2, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:00:11.161+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:53:36.100+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 4176, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1819, "published_at": "2016-01-21T05:10:04.722Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-27T13:56:06.031Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-07-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-21T07:46:32.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-21T15:46:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/131 | Resolution: This question was closed on answer option a) "At least 2/3" with an end date of 18 September 2016. United Russia won 343 of the 450 seats in the Duma, giving them a super majority with roughly 76% of the seats (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/putin-s-united-russia-gets-45-in-duma-election-exit-poll-shows" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-electon-idUSKCN11N0T6" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://tass.com/politics/901657" target="_blank">TASS Russian News Agency</a>).
Elections for the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's national legislature, are currently scheduled for 18 September 2016 (<a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/putin-signs-law-on-early-parliamentary-elections-amid-recession" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.rt.com/politics/duma-mixed-elections-bill-429/" target = "_blank">RT</a>).
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11">FAQ</a>.
Clarification issued 5 July 2016: Question will be resolved based on Russia's official count of the seats held by United Russia after the elections. That count shows United Russia having 238 seats in the current Duma (<a href="http://www.duma.gov.ru/structure/factions/" target="_blank">Duma.gov.ru</a>, <a href="http://www.russiavotes.org/duma/duma_today.php" target="_blank">Russia Votes</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-parliament-seats-idUSTRE7B409G20111205" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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United Russia won 343 of the 450 seats in the Duma, giving them a super majority with roughly 76% of the seats (<a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/putin-s-united-russia-gets-45-in-duma-election-exit-poll-shows\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-electon-idUSKCN11N0T6\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://tass.com/politics/901657\" target=\"_blank\">TASS Russian News Agency</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\nElections for the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's national legislature, are currently scheduled for 18 September 2016 (<a href = \"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/putin-signs-law-on-early-parliamentary-elections-amid-recession\" target = \"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"https://www.rt.com/politics/duma-mixed-elections-bill-429/\" target = \"_blank\">RT</a>).\r\n\r\nThis question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11\">FAQ</a>.\r\n\r\nClarification issued 5 July 2016: Question will be resolved based on Russia's official count of the seats held by United Russia after the elections. That count shows United Russia having 238 seats in the current Duma (<a href=\"http://www.duma.gov.ru/structure/factions/\" target=\"_blank\">Duma.gov.ru</a>, <a href=\"http://www.russiavotes.org/duma/duma_today.php\" target=\"_blank\">Russia Votes</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-parliament-seats-idUSTRE7B409G20111205\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/57-how-many-countries-will-russia-remove-from-its-food-embargo-list-before-6-august-2016\" target = \"_blank\">How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-russia-before-1-january-2017\" target = \"_blank\">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/99-will-conservatives-retain-their-majority-in-the-majles-after-iran-s-upcoming-parliamentary-elections\" target = \"_blank\">Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-09-18T06:59:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 131, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:56:42.197+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:59.286+00:00"}, "name": "How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1092, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 241, "published_at": "2016-02-02T17:27:32.067Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-23T14:17:48.757Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-09-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-02-02T10:00:08.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-02-02T18:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/634 | This question will be resolved using the <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/" target="_blank">United States Geological Survey (USGS)’s Earthquake Catalog</a>. The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting a Custom Date & Time of 'Start' to the first day of the month of interest and setting 'End' day to the last day of the month of interest, leave UTC times to default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:01.886Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1308, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 103", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 694, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 634, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:18.896Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:14.695Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:01.979Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1309, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 103 and 142, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 694, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 634, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:47:53.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:14.895Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:02.254Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1310, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 142 but less than 176", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 694, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 634, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:25.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:15.122Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:02.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1311, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 176 and 214, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 694, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 634, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:48:55.594Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:15.386Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:02.343Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1312, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 214", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 141, "predictions_count": 694, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 634, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:49:25.891Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:15.730Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 780, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using the <a href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/\" target=\"_blank\">United States Geological Survey (USGS)\u2019s Earthquake Catalog</a>. \u00a0The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting a Custom Date & Time of 'Start' to the first day of the month of interest and setting 'End' day to the last day of the month of interest, leave UTC times to default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window.\u00a0", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T06:59:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 634, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:20.891+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:54.024+00:00"}, "name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 694, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 141, "published_at": "2017-10-04T13:30:22.591Z", "resolution_notes": ["Value: 113 (as of 8-Nov 3:43PM)\r\nhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:49:25.967Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-04T09:00:36.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-04T16:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/272 | This question was closed on option "a) Before 1 October 2016. " The IMF approved the release of $1 billion, the third tranche of its loan, to Ukraine on 14 September 2016 (<a href="http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/09/14/PR16407-Ukraine-IMF-Executive-Board-Completes-the-Second-Review-under-EFF" target="_blank">, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-14/imf-clears-ukraine-s-1-billion-loan-tranche-after-year-delay" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-says-1-billion-imf-loan-shows-country-is-committed-to-overhauls-1473937440" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
In March 2015, the IMF approved a four-year, $17.5-billion loan program for Ukraine (<a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15107.htm" target="_blank">IMF</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, but the third has been delayed by concerns over stalled progress on expected reforms (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSL8N15N42C" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). In July of 2016, the IMF delayed release of the third tranche (<a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-imf-bailout-delay-continues/27887802.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href="http://uatoday.tv/news/rfe-rl-imf-announces-further-delay-in-ukraine-bailout-706396.html" target="_blank">Ukraine Today</a>). Extending the review process or delaying the approval decision without the release of additional monies (e.g. by requiring Ukraine to show more progress in meeting IMF conditions, as they did in May 2016 (<a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16227.htm" target="_blank">IMF</a>), will not resolve the question as "yes." The question will resolve as "yes" when the IMF approves the release of the next tranche of loans to Ukraine, regardless of the dollar amount.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-14T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:06:54.507Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 524, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 272, "question_name": "When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-16T17:11:20.321Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:58.741Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-14T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:06:54.486Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 523, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 272, "question_name": "When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-16T17:11:18.303Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:58.399Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-14T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:06:54.436Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 522, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 October 2016", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 144, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 272, "question_name": "When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-16T17:11:16.158Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:58.060Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 181, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-09-08T15:57:48.585Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "57%", "description": "This question was closed on option \"a) Before 1 October 2016. \" The IMF approved the release of $1 billion, the third tranche of its loan, to Ukraine on 14 September 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/09/14/PR16407-Ukraine-IMF-Executive-Board-Completes-the-Second-Review-under-EFF\" target=\"_blank\">, <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-14/imf-clears-ukraine-s-1-billion-loan-tranche-after-year-delay\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-says-1-billion-imf-loan-shows-country-is-committed-to-overhauls-1473937440\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>). \r\n\r\nIn March 2015, the IMF approved a four-year, $17.5-billion loan program for Ukraine (<a href=\"http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15107.htm\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, but the third has been delayed by concerns over stalled progress on expected reforms (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSL8N15N42C\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). In July of 2016, the IMF delayed release of the third tranche (<a href=\"http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-imf-bailout-delay-continues/27887802.html\" target=\"_blank\">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href=\"http://uatoday.tv/news/rfe-rl-imf-announces-further-delay-in-ukraine-bailout-706396.html\" target=\"_blank\">Ukraine Today</a>). Extending the review process or delaying the approval decision without the release of additional monies (e.g. by requiring Ukraine to show more progress in meeting IMF conditions, as they did in May 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16227.htm\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>), will not resolve the question as \"yes.\" The question will resolve as \"yes\" when the IMF approves the release of the next tranche of loans to Ukraine, regardless of the dollar amount.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266\" target=\"_blank\">Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/264\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 272, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:39.770+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:25.859+00:00"}, "name": "When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 144, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 55, "published_at": "2016-08-31T16:06:54.606Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-16T17:11:20.331Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-09-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-31T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-31T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/151 | For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target="_blank">Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target="_blank">How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target="_blank">Schedule</a>.
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/556 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href ="https://data.oecd.org/interest/long-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OECD</a>) in which HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION is 'Columbia (COL)' and TIME is 'August 2017'. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, likely in September.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Colombia's long-term interest rate for August 2017 was 6.95%. This question was closed as "Greater than 6.93% but less than 7.14%," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:19:42.044Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1135, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 6.70%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 556, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:02:14.565Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:54.646Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:19:42.087Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1136, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 6.70% and 6.93%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 556, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:02:09.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:55.002Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:19:42.123Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1137, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Greater than 6.93% but less than 7.14%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 556, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:01:56.018Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:55.861Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:19:42.158Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1138, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7.14% and 7.38%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 556, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:01:47.649Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:56.063Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T18:19:42.192Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1139, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Greater than 7.38%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 118, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 556, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:02:03.381Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:56.666Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 125, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-17T22:16:20.676Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 14, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href =\"https://data.oecd.org/interest/long-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>) in which HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION is 'Columbia (COL)' and TIME is 'August 2017'. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, likely in September.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nColombia's long-term interest rate for August 2017 was 6.95%. This question was closed as \"Greater than 6.93% but less than 7.14%,\" with and end date of 1 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T03:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 556, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:20.106+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:56.474+00:00"}, "name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for Colombia (COL) in August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 118, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 55, "published_at": "2017-08-16T15:19:02.549Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T17:02:14.618Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-16T09:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-16T16:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/380 | China met its 6.5-7% growth target in 2016. It will probably set itself a similar growth target for 2017 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12621/very-political-economy?fsrc=scn/fb/wi/bl/ed/"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>). The question will be resolved according to economic and financial data from The Economist <a href = "http://www.economist.com/indicators"target="blank">here</a>. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and will be closed when data are available in mid-April.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270"target = "_blank">whether Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356-what-will-the-european-central-bank-ecb-do-with-respect-to-the-deposit-rate-at-its-january-2017-monetary-policy-meeting"target = "_blank">what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate</a> .</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "more than 6.5% but less than 7.0%" with an end date of 31 March 2017. The Economist reported a year on year growth rate for Q1 of 6.9% (< a href = "http://www.economist.com/indicators"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T07:51:25.036Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 705, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 813, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 380, "question_name": "What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-18T14:13:43.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:53.804Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T07:51:25.061Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 706, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 6.0% and 6.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 813, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 380, "question_name": "What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-18T14:13:32.631Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:54.856Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T07:51:25.073Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 707, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 6.5% but less than 7.0% ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 813, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 380, "question_name": "What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-18T14:13:21.920Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:55.678Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T07:51:25.086Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 708, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "7.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 459, "predictions_count": 813, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 380, "question_name": "What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-18T14:13:56.301Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:55.815Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 850, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-21T05:29:10.969Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 70, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "China met its 6.5-7% growth target in 2016. It will probably set itself a similar growth target for 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12621/very-political-economy?fsrc=scn/fb/wi/bl/ed/\"target = \"_blank\">The Economist</a>). The question will be resolved according to economic and financial data from The Economist <a href = \"http://www.economist.com/indicators\"target=\"blank\">here</a>. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and will be closed when data are available in mid-April.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270\"target = \"_blank\">whether Egypt\u2019s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%</a> or on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356-what-will-the-european-central-bank-ecb-do-with-respect-to-the-deposit-rate-at-its-january-2017-monetary-policy-meeting\"target = \"_blank\">what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate</a> .</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr> \r\nThis question closed as \"more than 6.5% but less than 7.0%\" with an end date of 31 March 2017. The Economist reported a year on year growth rate for Q1 of 6.9% (< a href = \"http://www.economist.com/indicators\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-04-01T06:59:07.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 380, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:26.031+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:20.121+00:00"}, "name": "What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 813, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 459, "published_at": "2017-01-10T07:51:25.136Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-18T14:13:56.323Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-10T10:00:07.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-10T18:00:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/992 | There are 13 House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-08, PA-14, and WI-03 (<a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/" target="_blank">Center for Politics</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/26/us/elections/house-races-midterms.html" target="_blank">NYT</a>, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections" target="_blank">Daily Kos</a>).
This question closed as "Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive" with an end date of 6 November 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.449Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2220, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "1 seat or less ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 992, "question_name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:37:01.879Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:57.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.473Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2221, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 992, "question_name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:36:35.876Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:57.568Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.501Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2222, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 992, "question_name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:36:09.434Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:57.941Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.531Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2223, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 992, "question_name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:35:43.806Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:58.422Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.561Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2224, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 95, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 992, "question_name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:35:18.892Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:58.868Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 233, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-08-09T16:40:07.701Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 88, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "15%", "description": "There are 13 House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-08, PA-14, and WI-03 (<a href=\"http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Politics</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/26/us/elections/house-races-midterms.html\" target=\"_blank\">NYT</a>, <a href=\"https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections\" target=\"_blank\">Daily Kos</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive\" with an end date of 6 November 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 992, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:47.615+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:04.814+00:00"}, "name": "How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 210, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 95, "published_at": "2018-07-25T19:40:22.658Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-28T19:37:02.014Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-07-25T12:40:22.658-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-07-25T19:34:21.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1048 | Mohammed bin Salman has moved to consolidate power in the Kingdom, but has recently been under scrutiny for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/thedarkprince" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/12/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-mohammed-wings-clipped-as-khashoggi-death-rattles-riyadh" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this will not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px; font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2019.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:31:17.196Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2387, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1992, "predictions_count": 2738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1048, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-01T15:50:02.945Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:47.275Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:31:17.370Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2388, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1992, "predictions_count": 2738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1048, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-01T15:43:13.511Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:48.728Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-30T16:31:17.411Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2389, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1992, "predictions_count": 2738, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1048, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-01T15:35:38.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:52.356Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2763, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-11-30T18:34:26.363Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 304, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Mohammed bin Salman has moved to consolidate power in the Kingdom, but has recently been under scrutiny for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (<a href=\"https://worldin2019.economist.com/thedarkprince\" target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/12/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-mohammed-wings-clipped-as-khashoggi-death-rattles-riyadh\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this will not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.<p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px; font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 October 2019.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;\">See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-10-01T06:59:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1048, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:04:31.899+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:41.394+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2738, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1992, "published_at": "2018-11-30T16:31:17.620Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-01T15:50:03.087Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-30T10:00:19.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-30T18:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.997Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62 | The Kingdom is currently confronting a range of challenges including plummeting oil prices, war in neighboring Yemen, and fallout from the recent Hajj tragedy (<a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/28/saudi-royal-calls-regime-change-letters-leadership-king-salman" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21669973-when-it-rains-even-desert-kingdom-it-pours-king-salmans-year-trouble" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>). For more information on the Saudi line of succession, see <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/king-salman-shakes-up-royal-family/2015/04/29/d1d803e9-8b42-49df-a9fd-6198ecfc6a29_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2015/06/18/not-saudi-succession-crisis/iarx" target = "_blank">Carnegie Endowment for International Peace</a>, and <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/two-princes-are-rising-stars-of-king-salman-s-saudi-arabia" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1103 | <p>The Brexit process introduces uncertainty for the pound (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/brexit-dont-buy-british-pound-sterling-investment-experts-say.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the closing value reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub></p><p><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"></span></p><hr style="box-sizing: content-box; height: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(210, 210, 210); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><p><span style="color: rgb(40, 60, 70); font-family: Graphik, "Helvetica Neue", helvetica, "Apple Color Emoji", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">This question closed as "More than €1.10 but less than €1.20" with an end date of 1 April 2019.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><sub><br></sub></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.671Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2504, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Below \u20ac1.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1103, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:36:17.942Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:40.294Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.695Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2505, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between \u20ac1.00 and \u20ac1.10, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1103, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:36:12.562Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:41.313Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.710Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2506, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than \u20ac1.10 but less than \u20ac1.20", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1103, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:36:05.035Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:42.989Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.725Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2507, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between \u20ac1.20 and \u20ac1.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1103, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:35:58.543Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:43.808Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.741Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2508, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than \u20ac1.30", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 182, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1103, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:35:52.933Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:44.950Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 523, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-24T21:32:48.341Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 66, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The Brexit process introduces uncertainty for the pound (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/brexit-dont-buy-british-pound-sterling-investment-experts-say.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the closing value reported by <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub></p><p><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"></span></p><hr style=\"box-sizing: content-box; height: 0px; margin: 15px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(210, 210, 210); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><p><span style=\"color: rgb(40, 60, 70); font-family: Graphik, "Helvetica Neue", helvetica, "Apple Color Emoji", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;\">This question closed as \"More than \u20ac1.10 but less than \u20ac1.20\" with an end date of 1 April 2019.</span></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span><sub><br></sub></p>", "ends_at": "2019-04-01T06:59:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1103, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:01:15.674+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:59:38.289+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 502, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 182, "published_at": "2019-01-24T15:09:48.801Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-02T19:36:17.960Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-24T09:00:04.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-24T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.993Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/748 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php"target="_blank">Energy Information Administration</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T12:30:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:47:29.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1633, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $57.70", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 748, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:50:53.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:41.898Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T12:30:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:47:29.287Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1634, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $57.70 and $59.64, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 748, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:50:58.935Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:42.389Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T12:30:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:47:29.339Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1635, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $59.64 and less than $63.04", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 748, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:51:05.769Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:43.024Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T12:30:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:47:29.386Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1636, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $63.04 and $66.98, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 748, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:50:46.064Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:43.581Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T12:30:07.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:47:29.427Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1637, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $66.98", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 177, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 748, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:51:10.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:44.928Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 178, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-08T23:06:23.598Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "33%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = \"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php\"target=\"_blank\">Energy Information Administration</a>.\u00a0\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-13T04:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 748, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:17.125+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:43.696+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 177, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 72, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:50:31.725Z", "resolution_notes": ["Brent\t63.66\thttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-14T15:51:10.830Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-12T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-06T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-06T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/559 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OECD</a>) in which HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES OR LOCATION is 'Ireland (IRL)' and TIME is 'August 2017'. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, likely in September.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
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Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, likely in September.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T03:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 559, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:58.789+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:26.670+00:00"}, "name": "What will the short-term interest rate be for Ireland (IRL) in August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 114, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2017-08-16T15:16:59.263Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\r\n-0.33 was the exact value, as reported at 4:23pm on 7 Sep 2017"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-14T14:59:06.981Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-16T09:00:22.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-16T16:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/119 | Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for the <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/6-monkey-cage-us-election-2016" target="_blank">Monkey Cage</a> Challenge!
For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target=“_blank”>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target=“_blank”>Schedule</a>.
You may have noticed that there are two questions on the site regarding the Iowa Republican caucuses. The reason is that with the launch of the <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/6-monkey-cage-us-election-2016" target=“_blank”>Monkey Cage challenge</a>, we wanted a broad question that rates the chances of all of the candidates. The <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/38-will-donald-trump-win-iowa-s-republican-caucus" target=“_blank”>earlier question</a>, launched back in September, was focused on the Trump phenomenon and his staying power.
If you forecast on one, we would appreciate you forecasting on both. This question will be the official question for the Monkey Cage challenge, but they’ll be looking at data from both to see if there are any differences in forecasted probabilities based on the framing of the question.
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"sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:06.810Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:13:17.970Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 210, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Rand Paul", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1584, "predictions_count": 2124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 119, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-02T18:41:22.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:07.968Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:13:30.151Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 211, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Marco Rubio", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1584, "predictions_count": 2124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 119, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-02T18:41:22.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:09.313Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:13:44.975Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 212, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Rick Santorum", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1584, "predictions_count": 2124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 119, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-02T18:41:22.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:10.415Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:13:56.359Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 213, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1584, "predictions_count": 2124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 119, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-02T18:41:22.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 11, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:11.018Z"}], "answers_count": 12, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2222, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for the <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/6-monkey-cage-us-election-2016\" target=\"_blank\">Monkey Cage</a> Challenge! \r\n\r\nFor more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Candidates</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Schedule</a>.\r\n\r\nYou may have noticed that there are two questions on the site regarding the Iowa Republican caucuses. The reason is that with the launch of the <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/6-monkey-cage-us-election-2016\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Monkey Cage challenge</a>, we wanted a broad question that rates the chances of all of the candidates. The <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/38-will-donald-trump-win-iowa-s-republican-caucus\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>earlier question</a>, launched back in September, was focused on the Trump phenomenon and his staying power. \r\n\r\nIf you forecast on one, we would appreciate you forecasting on both. This question will be the official question for the Monkey Cage challenge, but they\u2019ll be looking at data from both to see if there are any differences in forecasted probabilities based on the framing of the question.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/38-will-donald-trump-win-iowa-s-republican-caucus\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-02-01T07:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 119, "image": null, "membership_id": 2, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:10:32.903+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:53:45.829+00:00"}, "name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2124, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1584, "published_at": "2016-01-21T05:14:26.540Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-02T18:41:22.270Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-01-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-21T07:47:32.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-21T15:47:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/152 | For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target="_blank">Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target="_blank">How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target="_blank">Schedule</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>
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"sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:01.434Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-16T00:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-04T17:25:01.836Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 296, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1630, "predictions_count": 2381, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 152, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-16T13:45:14.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:04.005Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-16T00:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-04T17:24:41.108Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 294, "membership_id": 6, "name": "John Kasich", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1630, "predictions_count": 2381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 152, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-16T13:45:14.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:02.669Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-16T00:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-04T17:24:48.994Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 295, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Marco Rubio", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1630, "predictions_count": 2381, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 152, "question_name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-16T13:45:14.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:03.232Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2451, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-03-04T18:07:19.799Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\"_blank\">Candidates</a>, <a 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president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-03-17T06:59:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 152, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:04.852+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:57:31.468+00:00"}, "name": "Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2381, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1630, "published_at": "2016-03-04T17:26:25.243Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-16T13:45:14.431Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-03-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-03-04T10:00:52.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-03-04T18:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/691 | Civilian fatalities will count. Tensions between North Korea and its adversaries have heightened security risks in East Asia (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-asserts-its-right-to-shoot-down-us-bombers/2017/09/25/74da66c4-a204-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/1b726a6a-8cc8-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d"target="-blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-threatens-to-sink-japan-reduce-u-s-to-ashes-and-darkness-idUSKCN1BP0F3"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/south-korea-threatenskim-jong-un-extermination-missile-launch/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/oct/25/north-korea-tensions-team-gb-winter-olympics-evacuation-plan"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). North Korea and South Korea have a history of confrontation (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/nov/23/north-korea-yeonpyeong-island-incidents-map"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
<hr>
This question closed as "Not before 1 October" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.726Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1463, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 607, "predictions_count": 1543, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 691, "question_name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:19.049Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:56.165Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.749Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1464, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 607, "predictions_count": 1543, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 691, "question_name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:33:17.842Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:56.731Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.776Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1465, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 607, "predictions_count": 1543, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 691, "question_name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:29:01.944Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:58.407Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.797Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1466, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 607, "predictions_count": 1543, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 691, "question_name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:26:56.896Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:59.830Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.820Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1467, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 October 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 607, "predictions_count": 1543, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 691, "question_name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:35:09.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:02.056Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1565, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-14T19:33:25.742Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 320, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Civilian fatalities will count. Tensions between North Korea and its adversaries have heightened security risks in East Asia (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-asserts-its-right-to-shoot-down-us-bombers/2017/09/25/74da66c4-a204-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.ft.com/content/1b726a6a-8cc8-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d\"target=\"-blank\">Financial Times</a>, <a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-threatens-to-sink-japan-reduce-u-s-to-ashes-and-darkness-idUSKCN1BP0F3\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/south-korea-threatenskim-jong-un-extermination-missile-launch/\"target=\"_blank\">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/oct/25/north-korea-tensions-team-gb-winter-olympics-evacuation-plan\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). North Korea and South Korea have a history of confrontation (<a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/nov/23/north-korea-yeonpyeong-island-incidents-map\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThis question closed as \"Not before 1 October\" with an end date of 1 October 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-01T06:59:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 691, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:10.655+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:32.887+00:00"}, "name": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality? \r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1543, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 607, "published_at": "2017-11-14T17:07:09.978Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:35:09.308Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-14T10:00:16.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-14T18:00:16.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.925Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/11 | In accordance with the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, President Obama submitted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) to Congress on 19 July 2015. Congress has sixty days to review the legislation and vote to approve or disapprove the agreement, but the President retains the right to veto (carnegieendowment.org/2015/08/06/what-would-happen-if-u.s.-congress-killed-iran-deal/ieeg; www.economist.com/news/united-states/21660543-barack-obama-braced-stormy-month-ahead-crucial-vote-congress-politics ). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-09-18T06:59:49.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T14:20:53.142Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 16, "membership_id": 6, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 11, "question_name": "Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-09-26T01:33:41.052Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:45.963Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-09-18T06:59:49.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T14:23:28.841Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 17, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 11, "question_name": "Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-09-26T01:33:41.052Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:46.746Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-09-18T06:59:49.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T14:23:47.609Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 18, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, and the resolution will become law", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 301, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 11, "question_name": "Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-09-26T01:33:41.052Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:47.641Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 360, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-09-01T21:29:17.098Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "In accordance with the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, President Obama submitted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) to Congress on 19 July 2015. Congress has sixty days to review the legislation and vote to approve or disapprove the agreement, but the President retains the right to veto (carnegieendowment.org/2015/08/06/what-would-happen-if-u.s.-congress-killed-iran-deal/ieeg; www.economist.com/news/united-states/21660543-barack-obama-braced-stormy-month-ahead-crucial-vote-congress-politics ).", "ends_at": "2015-09-18T04:05:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 11, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:44:27.553+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:43:46.093+00:00"}, "name": "Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 301, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 148, "published_at": "2015-09-01T14:25:13.530Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-09-26T01:33:41.077Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-09-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-01T11:28:14.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-01T18:28:14.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/273 | This question was closed on option C ('Turnout will not reach 50%') with a closing date of 1 October 2016. Although over 98% of voters approved the referendum, fewer than 50% of eligible voters participated (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/hungarian-vote-on-refugees-will-not-take-place-suggest-first-poll-results" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/03/496376263/hungarian-referendum-on-refugees-is-overwhelming-but-invalid" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/02/europe/hungary-migrant-referendum/" target="_blank">CNN</a>).
This is an updated version of previously voided question. For forecasts made on a the prior version see <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/262" target="_blank">here</a>.
A referendum scheduled for 2 October 2016 asks Hungarian voters: "Do you want to allow the European Union to mandate the resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly?" According to Hungarian law, 50% of the population must participate in the referendum for it to be valid (See Article 8, Paragraph 4 of the <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Hungary_2013.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Hungarian Constitution</a>). For more information on the upcoming referendum see: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36711693" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN0ZL0QW" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/hungary-to-hold-ballot-on-eu-quotas-in-october-as-brexit-weighs" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:21:48.839Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 525, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"Yes\"", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 273, "question_name": "What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T18:10:16.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:59.971Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:21:48.906Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 526, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"No\"", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 273, "question_name": "What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T18:10:49.752Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:00.262Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T16:21:48.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 527, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Turnout will not reach 50%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 338, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 273, "question_name": "What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T18:11:16.907Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:00.698Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 364, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed on option C ('Turnout will not reach 50%') with a closing date of 1 October 2016. Although over 98% of voters approved the referendum, fewer than 50% of eligible voters participated (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/hungarian-vote-on-refugees-will-not-take-place-suggest-first-poll-results\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href=\"http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/03/496376263/hungarian-referendum-on-refugees-is-overwhelming-but-invalid\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/02/europe/hungary-migrant-referendum/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>).\r\n\r\nThis is an updated version of previously voided question. For forecasts made on a the prior version see <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/262\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nA referendum scheduled for 2 October 2016 asks Hungarian voters: \"Do you want to allow the European Union to mandate the resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly?\" According to Hungarian law, 50% of the population must participate in the referendum for it to be valid (See Article 8, Paragraph 4 of the <a href=\"https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Hungary_2013.pdf?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\">Hungarian Constitution</a>). For more information on the upcoming referendum see: <a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36711693\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN0ZL0QW\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/hungary-to-hold-ballot-on-eu-quotas-in-october-as-brexit-weighs\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>. \r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106\" target=\"_blank\">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/193\" target=\"_blank\">Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/233\" target=\"_blank\">Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-10-02T06:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 273, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:04.352+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:29.788+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 338, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 144, "published_at": "2016-08-31T16:21:49.114Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T18:11:17.009Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-31T10:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-31T17:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/422 | Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration (<a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php"target="_blank">US Energy Information Agency</a>). The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that Brent crude oil prices will rise slightly in 2017 (<a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29532"target="_blank">USEIA</a>). A poll of 29 oil analysts and economists shows forecasts ranging from $50 to $83 per barrel of Brent crude oil in 2017 (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-poll-idUSKBN13X146"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Between $60 and $70 per barrel, inclusive" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.623Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 831, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $40 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 465, "predictions_count": 2605, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 422, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:59:45.080Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:43.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.654Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 832, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $40 and $50 per barrel, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 465, "predictions_count": 2605, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 422, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:55:30.033Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:43.989Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.676Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 833, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $50 but less than $60 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 465, "predictions_count": 2605, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 422, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:05:00.528Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:44.746Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.703Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 834, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $60 and $70 per barrel, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 465, "predictions_count": 2605, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 422, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:50:36.402Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:45.239Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.740Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 835, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $70 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 465, "predictions_count": 2605, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 422, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:09:39.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:45.715Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2663, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-27T07:15:20.381Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "90%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration (<a href = \"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php\"target=\"_blank\">US Energy Information Agency</a>). The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that Brent crude oil prices will rise slightly in 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29532\"target=\"_blank\">USEIA</a>). A poll of 29 oil analysts and economists shows forecasts ranging from $50 to $83 per barrel of Brent crude oil in 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-poll-idUSKBN13X146\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Between $60 and $70 per barrel, inclusive\" with an end date of 29 December 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-29T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 422, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:36.600+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:25:24.638+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2605, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 465, "published_at": "2017-02-24T16:03:51.839Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:09:39.866Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-24T10:00:13.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-24T18:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/116 | Elections for the next mayor of London will be held on 5 May 2016. The main candidates are Zac Goldsmith of the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan of Labour (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10458" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>). The mayor of London is responsible for a budget of £17 billion, with powers over transport, housing, economic development, the environment, and the arts (<a href = "http://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/what-mayor-london-and-london-assembly-do" target = "_blank">London Elects</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/102-who-will-win-uganda-s-next-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-05T21:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-19T17:37:11.998Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 196, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Sadiq Khan", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 532, "predictions_count": 1377, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 116, "question_name": "Who will be the next mayor of London?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-09T21:01:05.367Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:54.918Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-05T21:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-19T17:37:54.527Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 197, "membership_id": 6, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 532, "predictions_count": 1377, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 116, "question_name": "Who will be the next mayor of London?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-09T21:01:19.670Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:55.477Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-05T21:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-19T17:36:24.482Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 195, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Zac Goldsmith", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 532, "predictions_count": 1377, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 116, "question_name": "Who will be the next mayor of London?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-09T21:01:35.652Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:53.625Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1418, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-01-19T18:08:47.791Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 106, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Elections for the next mayor of London will be held on 5 May 2016. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/438 | The 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 2 April 2017 in Dallas, TX. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 28 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 1 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href = "http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-women/d1"target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/437"target="_blank">which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship</a></sub>
This question was resolved as "South Carolina" with an end date of 2 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/04/03/south-carolina-defeats-mississippi-state-to-win-ncaa-womens-basketball-title.html"target="_blank">Fox Sports</a>, <a href = "http://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-women/d1"target="_blank">NCAA</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-02T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:21:32.924Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 877, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "UConn", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 438, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T14:46:12.871Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.193Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-02T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:21:32.938Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 878, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Stanford", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 438, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T14:46:15.764Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.367Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-02T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:21:32.954Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 879, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mississippi St.", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 438, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T14:46:18.226Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.520Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-04-02T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-17T15:21:32.967Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 880, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "South Carolina", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 438, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T14:46:20.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:04.663Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 115, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-04-03T00:30:22.426Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "The 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 2 April 2017 in Dallas, TX. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 28 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 1 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href = \"http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-women/d1\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/437\"target=\"_blank\">which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship</a></sub>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question was resolved as \"South Carolina\" with an end date of 2 April 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/04/03/south-carolina-defeats-mississippi-state-to-win-ncaa-womens-basketball-title.html\"target=\"_blank\">Fox Sports</a>, <a href = \"http://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-women/d1\"target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-04-03T06:59:31.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 438, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:57.507+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:40.090+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 58, "published_at": "2017-03-17T15:21:33.027Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T14:46:20.609Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-04-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-17T10:00:31.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-17T17:00:31.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/506 | The IOC officially announced Paris will host the 2024 Olympics and Los Angeles will host in 2028 (<a href="https://www.olympic.org/news/ioc-makes-historic-decision-by-simultaneously-awarding-olympic-games-2024-to-paris-and-2028-to-los-angeles" target="_blank">Olympic Games</a>). This question was closed as "a) Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028", with an end date of 13 September.
The International Olympic Committee will announce the host city for the 2024 Summer Olympic games in September 2017 at its 130th Session (<a href = "https://www.olympic.org/current-candidature-process-2024"target="_blank">The International Olympic Committee</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/08/sports/olympics/ioc-summer-games-host-paris-los-angeles-2024-2028.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12647/plunder-games?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-13T06:59:38.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.581Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1009, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 562, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 506, "question_name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:28:28.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:50.441Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-13T06:59:38.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.605Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1010, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Los Angeles in 2024, Paris in 2028", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 562, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 506, "question_name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:28:04.899Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:50.966Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-13T06:59:38.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.625Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1011, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Paris in 2024, but Los Angeles not selected for 2028 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 562, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 506, "question_name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:27:43.081Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:51.505Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-13T06:59:38.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1012, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Los Angeles in 2024, but Paris not selected for 2028, ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 562, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 506, "question_name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:27:29.468Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:52.165Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-13T06:59:38.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.674Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1013, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 562, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 506, "question_name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:28:53.089Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:52.518Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 567, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-06-27T17:59:21.565Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 77, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The IOC officially announced Paris will host the 2024 Olympics and Los Angeles will host in 2028 (<a href=\"https://www.olympic.org/news/ioc-makes-historic-decision-by-simultaneously-awarding-olympic-games-2024-to-paris-and-2028-to-los-angeles\" target=\"_blank\">Olympic Games</a>). This question was closed as \"a) Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028\", with an end date of 13 September. \r\n\r\nThe International Olympic Committee will announce the host city for the 2024 Summer Olympic games in September 2017 at its 130th Session (<a href = \"https://www.olympic.org/current-candidature-process-2024\"target=\"_blank\">The International Olympic Committee</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/08/sports/olympics/ioc-summer-games-host-paris-los-angeles-2024-2028.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12647/plunder-games?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-09-14T06:59:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 506, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:58.752+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:41.722+00:00"}, "name": "At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 562, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 265, "published_at": "2017-06-27T15:32:05.767Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T19:28:53.152Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-27T10:00:54.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-27T17:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/398 | The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>.
This question was closed on "Moonlight" (http://oscar.go.com/winners) with an end date of 26 February 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:47.805Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 756, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Arrival", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 152, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 398, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:39.211Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:21.803Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:47.844Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 757, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fences", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 152, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 398, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:40.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:22.014Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:47.896Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 758, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Hidden Figures", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 152, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 398, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:43.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:22.401Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:47.923Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 759, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Lion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 152, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 398, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:47.799Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:22.758Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:47.945Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 760, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Moonlight", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 152, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 398, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:51.809Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:23.528Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 152, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-29T17:12:03.529Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 28, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "The <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"Moonlight\" (http://oscar.go.com/winners) with an end date of 26 February 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 398, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:59.072+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:05.746+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Adapted Screenplay)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 152, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 73, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:10:48.084Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:38:51.835Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:23.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/547 | <b>This question closed as "b) Between 7 and 46, inclusive, with an end date of 31 August 2017.</b>
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by "The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data Page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The count of battle deaths for August 2017 are obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES’ column for events in which the 'COUNTRY’ is: Sudan; 'EVENT_TYPE’ is: Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' is in August 2017. The question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved using data retrieved mid-September 2017. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T17:20:36.404Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1098, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 7", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 146, "predictions_count": 292, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 547, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:49:06.932Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:29.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T17:20:36.429Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1099, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7 and 46, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 146, "predictions_count": 292, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 547, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:49:00.466Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:30.481Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T17:20:36.452Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1100, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 46 but less than 122", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 146, "predictions_count": 292, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 547, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:48:53.312Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:32.669Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T17:20:36.474Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1101, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 122 and 321, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 146, "predictions_count": 292, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 547, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:48:47.318Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:34.195Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-07T17:20:36.496Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1102, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 321", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 146, "predictions_count": 292, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 547, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:48:37.237Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:34.920Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 305, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<b>This question closed as \"b) Between 7 and 46, inclusive, with an end date of 31 August 2017.</b>\r\n\r\nThe Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by \"The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File\" found on the Realtime Data Page (<a href = \"http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/\"target=\"_blank\">ACLED</a>). The count of battle deaths for August 2017 are obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES\u2019 column for events in which the 'COUNTRY\u2019 is: Sudan; 'EVENT_TYPE\u2019 is: Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' is in August 2017. The question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved using data retrieved mid-September 2017.", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T03:59:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 547, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:56.394+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:55.970+00:00"}, "name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 292, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 146, "published_at": "2017-08-09T16:45:13.171Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-25T13:49:06.961Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-09T09:45:15.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-09T16:45:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/169 | The 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on April 4, 2016 in Houston, TX. North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse and Villanova are the Final Four teams remaining in the tournament (<a href="http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/15055853/breaking-2016-men-final-four" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). This question will remain open until the final game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 3 April 2016. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1" target="_blank">NCAA.com</a>.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44-will-roger-goodell-be-commissioner-of-the-nfl-at-the-start-of-the-2016-regular-season" target="_blank">Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-04-05T03:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-28T16:32:08.950Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 327, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "North Carolina", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 240, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 169, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-06T02:14:56.630Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:18.964Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-04-05T03:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-28T16:32:22.890Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 328, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Oklahoma", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 240, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 169, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-06T02:15:00.136Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:19.344Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-04-05T03:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-28T16:32:36.927Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 329, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Syracuse", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 240, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 169, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-06T02:15:03.892Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:19.906Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-04-05T03:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-28T16:32:49.202Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 330, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Villanova", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 240, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 169, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-06T02:15:08.349Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:20.911Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 260, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on April 4, 2016 in Houston, TX. North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse and Villanova are the Final Four teams remaining in the tournament (<a href=\"http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/15055853/breaking-2016-men-final-four\" target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). This question will remain open until the final game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 3 April 2016. To view an interactive bracket, visit <a href=\"http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1\" target=\"_blank\">NCAA.com</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/170-which-team-will-win-the-2015-2016-nba-finals\" target=\"_blank\">Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/100-will-india-win-the-2016-icc-world-twenty20-cricket-tournament\" target=\"_blank\">Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44-will-roger-goodell-be-commissioner-of-the-nfl-at-the-start-of-the-2016-regular-season\" target=\"_blank\">Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-04-05T06:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 169, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:01:30.839+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:00:47.126+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 240, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 131, "published_at": "2016-03-28T16:33:59.716Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-06T02:15:08.387Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-04-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-03-28T10:00:56.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-03-28T17:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/946 | Outcome will be determined by the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity percentage given by <a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M"target="_blank">FRED</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018 was .97. This question closed as "b) Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive" with an end date of 1 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:58.858Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2093, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 0.90", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 946, "question_name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:02:46.369Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:45.193Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:58.911Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2094, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 946, "question_name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:02:26.053Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:45.681Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:58.977Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2095, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1.10 but less than 1.30 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 946, "question_name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:02:03.221Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:46.244Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:59.046Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2096, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1.30 and 1.50, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 946, "question_name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:01:34.150Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:46.558Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:59.086Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2097, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1.50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 151, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 946, "question_name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:01:13.208Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:47.075Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 152, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-24T16:59:51.344Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "68%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity percentage given by <a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018 was .97. This question closed as \"b) Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive\" with an end date of 1 June 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-01T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 946, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:49.558+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:23.299+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 151, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 54, "published_at": "2018-05-09T16:10:59.284Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-05T16:02:46.776Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:49.564Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/527 | A referendum vote aimed at changing Mauritania’s constitution, originally scheduled for July 2017, has been postponed to August (<a href = "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/22610/what-s-fueling-debate-over-proposed-constitutional-reforms-in-mauritania"target="_blank">World Politics Review</a>, <a href = "http://northafricapost.com/17565-mauritanians-decide-july-15-whether-president-extend-reign.html"target="_blank">North AfricaPost</a>, <a href = "http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/24/mauritania-constitutional-referendum-the-morning-call/"target="_blank">Africa News</a>, <a href = "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/mauritania-vows-referendum-to-abolish-senate-change-flag-20170323"target="_blank">News 24</a>). If the referendum includes multiple amendments to the constitution, passage of any of them would resolve the question as "Yes, it will pass."
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Mauritania held a passing referendum on 5 August, 2017 (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/mauritania-votes-controversial-constitutional-reform-170805081519439.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a> ,<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40847092"target="_blank">BBC</a>). This question closed as "a) Yes, and it will pass", with and end date of 5 August 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-05T17:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:36:16.696Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1038, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and it will pass", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 527, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2017, will the Mauritanian government hold a referendum to alter the nation's constitution? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-08T15:16:24.805Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:00.688Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-05T17:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:36:16.770Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1039, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, but it will not pass ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 527, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2017, will the Mauritanian government hold a referendum to alter the nation's constitution? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-08T15:16:20.415Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:00.929Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-05T17:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:36:16.810Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1040, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 34, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 527, "question_name": "Before 1 October 2017, will the Mauritanian government hold a referendum to alter the nation's constitution? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-08T15:16:16.455Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:01.232Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 89, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-07-19T01:30:42.793Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "18%", "description": "A referendum vote aimed at changing Mauritania\u2019s constitution, originally scheduled for July 2017, has been postponed to August (<a href = \"http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/22610/what-s-fueling-debate-over-proposed-constitutional-reforms-in-mauritania\"target=\"_blank\">World Politics Review</a>, <a href = \"http://northafricapost.com/17565-mauritanians-decide-july-15-whether-president-extend-reign.html\"target=\"_blank\">North AfricaPost</a>, <a href = \"http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/24/mauritania-constitutional-referendum-the-morning-call/\"target=\"_blank\">Africa News</a>, <a href = \"http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/mauritania-vows-referendum-to-abolish-senate-change-flag-20170323\"target=\"_blank\">News 24</a>). If the referendum includes multiple amendments to the constitution, passage of any of them would resolve the question as \"Yes, it will pass.\"\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nMauritania held a passing referendum on 5 August, 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/mauritania-votes-controversial-constitutional-reform-170805081519439.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a> ,<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40847092\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). This question closed as \"a) Yes, and it will pass\", with and end date of 5 August 2017. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T06:59:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 527, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:32.559+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:21.055+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 October 2017, will the Mauritanian government hold a referendum to alter the nation's constitution? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 83, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 34, "published_at": "2017-07-14T16:36:17.010Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-08T15:16:24.872Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-14T10:00:25.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-14T17:00:25.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278 | This question was closed as "less than 5 million" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php"target = "_blank">The UN Refugee Agency</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
According to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the <a href=" http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php" target="_blank">UNHCR page for the region</a>
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-06T16:45:04.962Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 539, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 5 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 574, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 278, "question_name": "How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-05T17:51:37.189Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:06.371Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-06T16:45:04.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 540, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 5 million and 5.4 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 574, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 278, "question_name": "How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-05T17:52:17.129Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:06.560Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-06T16:45:05.023Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 541, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 5.4 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 189, "predictions_count": 574, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 278, "question_name": "How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-05T17:50:49.548Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:06.846Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 616, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-09-26T23:23:04.559Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 96, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "17%", "description": "This question was closed as \"less than 5 million\" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (<a href = \"http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php\"target = \"_blank\">The UN Refugee Agency</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAccording to the 2015 Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, by August of 2016 the number of registered Syrian refugees had reached over 4.8 million. Outcome will be determined by the total number of Registered Syrian Refugees indicated on the <a href=\" http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php\" target=\"_blank\">UNHCR page for the region</a>\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/271\" target=\"_blank\">When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/227\" target=\"_blank\">When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106\" target=\"_blank\">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 278, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:01.747+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:04.452+00:00"}, "name": "How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 574, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 189, "published_at": "2016-09-06T16:45:05.127Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-05T17:52:17.218Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-09-06T10:00:25.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-09-06T17:00:25.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.853Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/196 | On 24 August 2016 the government of Colombia and the FARC signed a peace agreement, ending more than five decades of war (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37180752" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-rebels-idUSKCN10Z2HJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). At that time, the question was closed on option "b) Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive." Scores were calculated through the end of 23 August 2016.
Clarification issued 8/15/16: In order to resolve this question, the two parties must agree on the terms of a deal. Ratification or the outcome of the plebiscite are not necessary to resolve this question.
Negotiations continue despite a September 2015 pledge by the Colombian government and FARC to conclude a peace deal within six months (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/farc-peace-talks-in-cuba-miss-deadline-for-final-deal" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35888464" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://colombiareports.com/163790-2/" target="_blank">Colombia Reports</a>).
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-24T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-06T16:48:04.465Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 375, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 28 February 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 104, "predictions_count": 671, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 196, "question_name": "When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-25T20:31:48.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:46.513Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-24T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-06T16:48:04.424Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 374, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 104, "predictions_count": 671, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 196, "question_name": "When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-25T20:31:58.421Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:46.038Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-24T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-06T16:48:04.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 372, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Before 1 July 2016", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 104, "predictions_count": 671, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 196, "question_name": "When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-25T20:32:07.040Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:44.868Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-24T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-06T16:48:04.391Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 373, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 104, "predictions_count": 671, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 196, "question_name": "When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-25T20:32:23.878Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:45.512Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-08-24T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-06T16:48:04.505Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 376, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Not before 1 March 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 104, "predictions_count": 671, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 196, "question_name": "When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-25T20:32:37.051Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:47.390Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 738, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-06-03T23:46:38.351Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 82, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "25%", "description": "On 24 August 2016 the government of Colombia and the FARC signed a peace agreement, ending more than five decades of war (<a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37180752\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-rebels-idUSKCN10Z2HJ\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/400 | The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>.
This question was closed on "Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)" (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:54.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 766, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 176, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 400, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:09:55.654Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:25.998Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:54.947Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 767, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 400, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:10:08.188Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:26.625Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:54.973Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 768, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 400, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:10:20.925Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:27.175Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:54.997Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 769, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Dev Patel (Lion)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 400, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:10:34.559Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:27.714Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:55.024Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 770, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 176, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 400, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:10:50.157Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:28.135Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 176, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-27T20:47:30.923Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)\" (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 400, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:22.654+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:21.024+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Supporting Role?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 176, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:14:55.098Z", "resolution_notes": ["", ""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-27T19:54:09.033Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:24.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/787 | <a href = "http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en/"target="_blank">FluNet</a> is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' <a href = "http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12"target="_blank">here</a>. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T14:27:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:01:18.863Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1738, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 7", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 787, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:31:14.558Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:13.588Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T14:27:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:01:18.983Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1739, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7 and 18, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 787, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:31:07.606Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:14.559Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T14:27:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:01:19.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1740, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 18 but less than 41", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 787, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:31:00.597Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:15.248Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T14:27:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:01:19.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1741, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 41 and 108, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 787, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:30:53.839Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:15.823Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-27T14:27:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:01:19.351Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1742, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 108", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 787, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:30:47.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:16.114Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 75, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-11T15:08:13.124Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "67%", "description": "<a href = \"http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en/\"target=\"_blank\">FluNet</a> is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' <a href = \"http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-18T04:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 787, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:25.396+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:12.293+00:00"}, "name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 75, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:46:33.241Z", "resolution_notes": ["Total number of influenza positive viruses: 28\r\nhttp://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T14:31:14.724Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-17T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/497 | The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "YTD Return" value reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LBUSTRUU:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> on 29 December, 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:41.449Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 987, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than -2.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 621, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 497, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:39:22.123Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:42.567Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:41.578Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 988, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between -2.5% and 0.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 621, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 497, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:38:19.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:43.084Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:41.653Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 989, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 0.0%, but less than +2.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 621, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 497, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:40:27.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:43.822Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:41.679Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 990, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 621, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 497, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:42:31.816Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:44.233Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-29T18:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:41.954Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 991, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than +5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 621, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 497, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:41:29.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:44.553Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 624, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-06-14T09:47:10.732Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 197, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"YTD Return\" value reported by <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LBUSTRUU:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> on 29 December, 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive\" with an end date of 29 December 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-29T07:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 497, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:12.564+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:30:44.969+00:00"}, "name": "What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 621, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 161, "published_at": "2017-06-13T15:55:42.423Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T14:42:31.887Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-13T10:00:03.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-13T17:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/254 | Jeremy Corbyn maintained his leadership of the Labor Party in September's election (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/24/europe/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/24/labour-leadership-election-result-jeremy-corbyn-owen-smith-appeals-for-unity-politics-live" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
Since "Leave" won the Brexit referendum, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has come under intense criticism and is now facing a tough race for leadership of his party (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36654418" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/labour-party-leader-jeremy-corby-gets-break-in-battle-to-keep-post-1468357397" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). The results of the election are scheduled to be released on 24 September 2016.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/239" target="_blank">What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-24T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-09T13:19:34.588Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 484, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 254, "question_name": "Who will win the upcoming election for the United Kingdom's Labour Party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-29T15:01:13.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:43.624Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-24T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-09T13:19:34.624Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 485, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Owen Smith", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 254, "question_name": "Who will win the upcoming election for the United Kingdom's Labour Party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-29T15:01:25.075Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:43.997Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-24T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-09T13:19:34.652Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 486, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 204, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 254, "question_name": "Who will win the upcoming election for the United Kingdom's Labour Party?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-29T15:01:02.911Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:44.212Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 418, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-09T17:08:35.428Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 45, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Jeremy Corbyn maintained his leadership of the Labor Party in September's election (<a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/24/europe/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/24/labour-leadership-election-result-jeremy-corbyn-owen-smith-appeals-for-unity-politics-live\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). \r\nSince \"Leave\" won the Brexit referendum, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has come under intense criticism and is now facing a tough race for leadership of his party (<a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36654418\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"http://www.wsj.com/articles/labour-party-leader-jeremy-corby-gets-break-in-battle-to-keep-post-1468357397\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>). 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/962 | The winner of the 2018 NBA MVP Award will be revealed at the NBA Awards on 25 June 2018 (<a href = "http://www.nba.com/article/2018/05/16/nba-reveals-awards-finalists-official-release"target="_blank">NBA</a>, <a href = "http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23089236/predicting-nba-awards-2017-18-mvp-rookie-year-more"target="_blank">ESPN</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
James Harden of the Houston Rockets won the 2018 National Basketball Association Most Valuable Player Award. This question closed as "b) James Harden" with an end date of 25 June 2018 (<a href = "http://www.nba.com/history/awards/mvp"target="_blank">NBA.com</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:25:24.086Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2168, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 110, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 962, "question_name": "Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:23:23.361Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:19.086Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:25:24.122Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2169, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "James Harden, Houston Rockets", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 110, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 962, "question_name": "Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:23:08.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:19.357Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:25:24.154Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2170, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 110, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 962, "question_name": "Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:22:54.240Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:19.841Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 115, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-08T16:26:10.568Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "11%", "description": "The winner of the 2018 NBA MVP Award will be revealed at the NBA Awards on 25 June 2018 (<a href = \"http://www.nba.com/article/2018/05/16/nba-reveals-awards-finalists-official-release\"target=\"_blank\">NBA</a>, <a href = \"http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23089236/predicting-nba-awards-2017-18-mvp-rookie-year-more\"target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\nJames Harden of the Houston Rockets won the 2018 National Basketball Association Most Valuable Player Award. This question closed as \"b) James Harden\" with an end date of 25 June 2018 (<a href = \"http://www.nba.com/history/awards/mvp\"target=\"_blank\">NBA.com</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-25T06:59:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 962, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:49.559+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:26.374+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 110, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2018-06-06T15:25:24.285Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:23:23.436Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-06-06T10:00:25.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-06-06T17:00:25.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/189 | This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The elections were postponed until 2018 (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/drc-elections-put-back-to-2018-as-opposition-calls-strike-in-protest"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/drc-election-delay-violence-could-escalate/a-36079645"target = "_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections in November 2016. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila is supposed to relinquish that office after two elected terms, but Kabila is seeking to amend the constitution to allow himself to stand for a third term, and the government has hinted that elections may be delayed (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/congos-critical-juncture-for-democracy/2016/04/27/f9578906-0b22-11e6-a6b6-2e6de3695b0e_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-congodemocratic-politics-idUSKCN0XB1QU" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.insidesources.com/crackdown-in-drc/" target="_blank">Inside Sources</a>). Meanwhile, several leading opposition parties have endorsed Moise Katumbi as their candidate for president (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-congodemocratic-politics-idUSKCN0WW24S" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/192" target="_blank">How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:38:04.126Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 360, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Yes, and Joseph Kabila Kabange will win", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 770, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 189, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-04T15:53:16.981Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:38.793Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:38:26.713Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 361, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Yes, and Moise Katumbi Chapwe will win", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 770, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 189, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-04T15:53:57.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:40.314Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:38:50.358Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 362, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Yes, but neither Kabila nor Katumbi will win", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 770, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 189, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-04T15:53:31.948Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:40.911Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-31T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:39:01.097Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 363, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 156, "predictions_count": 770, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 189, "question_name": "Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-04T15:53:44.128Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:41.317Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 774, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-05-03T18:00:03.056Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 242, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed as \"No\" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The elections were postponed until 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/drc-elections-put-back-to-2018-as-opposition-calls-strike-in-protest\"target = \"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href = \"http://www.dw.com/en/drc-election-delay-violence-could-escalate/a-36079645\"target = \"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThe Democratic Republic of the Congo is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections in November 2016. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila is supposed to relinquish that office after two elected terms, but Kabila is seeking to amend the constitution to allow himself to stand for a third term, and the government has hinted that elections may be delayed (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/congos-critical-juncture-for-democracy/2016/04/27/f9578906-0b22-11e6-a6b6-2e6de3695b0e_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-congodemocratic-politics-idUSKCN0XB1QU\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.insidesources.com/crackdown-in-drc/\" target=\"_blank\">Inside Sources</a>). Meanwhile, several leading opposition parties have endorsed Moise Katumbi as their candidate for president (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-congodemocratic-politics-idUSKCN0WW24S\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/192\" target=\"_blank\">How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-before-1-january-2017\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:07.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 189, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:04:29.007+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:03:13.522+00:00"}, "name": "Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 770, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 156, "published_at": "2016-05-03T16:39:29.222Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-04T15:53:57.358Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-03T10:00:07.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-03T17:00:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.845Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/399 |
The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>.
This question was closed on "Manchester by the Sea" (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T06:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.359Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 761, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Hell or High Water", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 127, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 399, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:44:00.991Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:23.996Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T06:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.377Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 762, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "La La Land", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 127, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 399, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:44:17.322Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:24.336Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T06:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.395Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 763, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "The Lobster", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 127, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 399, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:44:33.074Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:24.541Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T06:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.413Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 764, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Manchester by the Sea", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 127, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 399, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:44:48.476Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:24.812Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T06:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.428Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 765, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "20th Century Women", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 127, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 399, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:45:03.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:25.297Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 127, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-02-27T05:19:15.344Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\nThe <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"Manchester by the Sea\" (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 399, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:27.119+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:14.925+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 127, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 79, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:12:42.481Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:45:03.379Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:19.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1025 | After neither candidate won an absolute majority in the first round (Jair Bolsonaro won 46% and Fernando Haddad won 29%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 28 October 2018 (<a href = "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45780176"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/apuracao/presidente.ghtml"target="_blank">Globo Comunicação</a>, <a href = "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brazil-right-wing-presidential-candidate-wins-vote-runoff-likely-n917611"target="_blank">NBC</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
This question resolved on "Jair Bolsonaro" with an end date of 28 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-28T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-10-12T15:28:47.540Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2279, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1025, "question_name": "Who will win Brazil\u2019s presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-29T17:42:14.719Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:02:37.874Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-28T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-10-12T15:28:47.597Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2280, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fernando Haddad", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1025, "question_name": "Who will win Brazil\u2019s presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-29T17:42:10.988Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:02:38.779Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-28T17:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2018-10-12T15:28:47.625Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2281, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 98, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1025, "question_name": "Who will win Brazil\u2019s presidential election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-29T17:42:07.184Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:02:39.978Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 112, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-10-12T17:03:03.097Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "After neither candidate won an absolute majority in the first round (Jair Bolsonaro won 46% and Fernando Haddad won 29%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 28 October 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45780176\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/apuracao/presidente.ghtml\"target=\"_blank\">Globo Comunica\u00e7\u00e3o</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brazil-right-wing-presidential-candidate-wins-vote-runoff-likely-n917611\"target=\"_blank\">NBC</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\nThis question resolved on \"Jair Bolsonaro\" with an end date of 28 October 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-28T06:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1025, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:37.758+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:11.501+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win Brazil\u2019s presidential election runoff?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 98, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2018-10-12T15:28:47.771Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-29T17:42:14.754Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-10-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-10-12T10:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-10-12T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/934 | Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (<a href = "https://www.autoblog.com/2018/04/03/tesla-reports-official-model-3-numbers-says-no-need-to-raise-ca/"target="_blank">Auto Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-3-production-elon-musk/"target="_blank">Wired</a>, <a href = "http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-83k-2017/"target="_blank">Teslarati</a>). See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/535-before-1-july-2018-how-many-model-3-cars-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as <a href = "http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries"target="_blank">"29,000 or less"</a> with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:35.837Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2053, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "29,000 or less", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 391, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 934, "question_name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:39.550Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:30.403Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:35.878Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2054, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 29,000 but less than 36,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 391, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 934, "question_name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:32.695Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:30.986Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:35.908Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2055, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 391, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 934, "question_name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:25.970Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:31.784Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:35.938Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2056, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 43,000 but less than 50,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 391, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 934, "question_name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:18.049Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:32.156Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:35.969Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2057, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "50,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 107, "predictions_count": 391, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 934, "question_name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:47.079Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:32.662Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 479, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (<a href = \"https://www.autoblog.com/2018/04/03/tesla-reports-official-model-3-numbers-says-no-need-to-raise-ca/\"target=\"_blank\">Auto Blog</a>, <a href = \"https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-3-production-elon-musk/\"target=\"_blank\">Wired</a>, <a href = \"http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-83k-2017/\"target=\"_blank\">Teslarati</a>). See (<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/535-before-1-july-2018-how-many-model-3-cars-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers\"target=\"_blank\">GJOpen</a>) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as <a href = \"http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries\"target=\"_blank\">\"29,000 or less\"</a> with an end date of 1 July 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 934, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:02.651+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:00.357+00:00"}, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 391, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 107, "published_at": "2018-04-18T16:42:36.042Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-12-06T19:48:47.099Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-18T10:00:02.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/478 | Six candidates are in the running for Iran's May 2017 presidential election (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39670302"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/iran-elections-guardian-council-candidates-rouhani.html"target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12626/all-too-combustible?fsrc=scn/fb/wi/bl/ed/"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
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<hr>
This question was closed as "Hassan Rohani" with an end date of 20 May 2017 (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN18E2Y8"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/iran-election-president-hassan-rouhani-takes-lead-170520042625946.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-20T17:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.309Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 950, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Hassan Rohani", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 478, "question_name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:47:14.415Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:27.912Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-20T17:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 951, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ebrahim Raisi", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 478, "question_name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:47:09.457Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:28.146Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-20T17:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.394Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 952, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mohammad Baguer Ghalibaf ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 478, "question_name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:47:04.098Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:28.782Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-20T17:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.421Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 953, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mostafa Mirsalim", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 478, "question_name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:46:59.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:29.106Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-20T17:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.450Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 954, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 478, "question_name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:46:53.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:29.527Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 396, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-05-02T17:19:39.040Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Six candidates are in the running for Iran's May 2017 presidential election (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39670302\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/iran-elections-guardian-council-candidates-rouhani.html\"target=\"_blank\">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12626/all-too-combustible?fsrc=scn/fb/wi/bl/ed/\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/479-will-moon-jae-in-win-south-korea-s-upcoming-presidential-election\"target=\"_blank\">Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/460-will-uhuru-kenyatta-win-kenya-s-august-2017-presidential-election\"target=\"_blank\">Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya\u2019s August 2017 presidential election?</a>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as \"Hassan Rohani\" with an end date of 20 May 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN18E2Y8\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/iran-election-president-hassan-rouhani-takes-lead-170520042625946.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-06-01T06:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 478, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:29:59.168+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:28:58.605+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 387, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 161, "published_at": "2017-05-02T15:31:40.589Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-22T16:47:14.425Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-05-20T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-05-02T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-05-02T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1 | Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg, at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur" target="_blank">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur</a>. For historical trends, see <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur/chart" target="_blank">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur/chart</a>. For more information on China's economy see <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10492" target="_blank">http://www.theworldin.com/article/10492</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T13:48:09.964Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4, "membership_id": 6, "name": "6.40 or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 385, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-09T18:31:40.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": null, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:37.203Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T13:47:43.780Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3, "membership_id": 6, "name": "More than 6.35 but less than 6.40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 385, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-09T18:31:40.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": null, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:36.576Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T13:47:14.641Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 385, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-09T18:31:40.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": null, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:36.190Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-01T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-01T13:45:13.377Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Less than 6.30", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 385, "predictions_count": 1549, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1, "question_name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-09T18:31:40.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": null, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:35.260Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1605, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-11-28T21:15:02.307Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "72%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg, at <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur</a>. For historical trends, see <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur/chart\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/usdcny:cur/chart</a>. For more information on China's economy see <a href=\"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10492\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.theworldin.com/article/10492</a>.", "ends_at": "2016-01-02T07:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1549, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 385, "published_at": "2015-09-01T13:49:29.860Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-01-09T18:31:40.493Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-01T09:37:49.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-01T16:37:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/700 | Prime Minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she navigates Brexit (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-12/u-k-s-may-pressured-as-times-says-40-mps-signal-no-confidence"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/pm-faces-snap-election-if-she-is-defeated-by-parliament-on-brexit-deal-a3671176.html"target="_blank">Evening Standard</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:16:36.395Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1495, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from the Conservative Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 947, "predictions_count": 1815, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 700, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T14:53:59.305Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:32.902Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:16:36.448Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1496, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from the Labour Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 947, "predictions_count": 1815, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 700, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T14:54:27.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:34.064Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:16:36.497Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1497, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 947, "predictions_count": 1815, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 700, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T14:53:00.949Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:34.619Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:16:36.527Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1498, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 947, "predictions_count": 1815, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 700, "question_name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T14:53:30.113Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:35.499Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1889, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-27T11:15:23.557Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 307, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "Prime Minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she navigates Brexit (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-12/u-k-s-may-pressured-as-times-says-40-mps-signal-no-confidence\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/pm-faces-snap-election-if-she-is-defeated-by-parliament-on-brexit-deal-a3671176.html\"target=\"_blank\">Evening Standard</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"no\" with an end date of 1 October 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-01T06:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 700, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:48.284+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:05.517+00:00"}, "name": "Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1815, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 947, "published_at": "2017-11-21T17:16:36.627Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T14:54:27.665Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:03.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/949 | "The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts with the group stage, and the top two teams from each group qualify for the Round of 16. For more information about the World Cup and its matches, please visit <a href = "https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/"target="_blank">FIFA</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Germany did not qualify for the <a href = "https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/#knockoutphase"target="_blank">2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16</a>. This question closed as "1" with an end date of 28 June 2018.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-28T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:57.984Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2113, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 949, "question_name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:40:45.805Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:51.894Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-28T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:58.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2114, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 949, "question_name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:40:13.396Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:52.344Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-28T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:58.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2115, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 949, "question_name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:39:45.330Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:52.709Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-28T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:58.154Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2116, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 949, "question_name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:39:17.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:52.955Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-28T17:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:58.206Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2117, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 346, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 949, "question_name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:38:49.339Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:53.207Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 371, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-27T17:38:35.380Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\"The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts with the group stage, and the top two teams from each group qualify for the Round of 16. For more information about the World Cup and its matches, please visit <a href = \"https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/\"target=\"_blank\">FIFA</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nGermany did not qualify for the <a href = \"https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/#knockoutphase\"target=\"_blank\">2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16</a>. This question closed as \"1\" with an end date of 28 June 2018. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-28T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 949, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:27.205+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:33.782+00:00"}, "name": "How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 346, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 96, "published_at": "2018-05-09T16:29:58.362Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:40:45.902Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/781 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = "https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO%3ABEL20&ei=uN4JWsGxLoXTeMGFm9gM"target="_blank">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:29.040Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1714, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 3,905", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 781, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:27:18.180Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:42.387Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:29.150Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1715, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 3,905 and 3,985, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 781, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:27:13.898Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:43.084Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:29.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1716, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 3,985 but less than 4,065", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 781, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:27:09.781Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:43.563Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:29.448Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1717, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 4,065 and 4,145, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 781, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:27:05.000Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:44.233Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:29.673Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1718, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 4,145", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 257, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 781, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:26:59.909Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:45.939Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 257, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-04T22:06:37.912Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "33%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = \"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO%3ABEL20&ei=uN4JWsGxLoXTeMGFm9gM\"target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-15T04:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 781, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:19.546+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:58.902+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of Belgium's BEL 20 (INDEXEURO: BEL20) on 15 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 257, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 70, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:56:33.952Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXEURO%3ABEL20&ei=uN4JWsGxLoXTeMGFm9gM\r\n\r\n3990.70 @ 17:30 (close) Brussels time"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-20T13:27:18.207Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-14T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:28.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/993 | Senate Democrats, particularly those in states carried by President Trump in 2016, are being closely watched in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process (<a href = "https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/brett-kavanaugh-senators-whip-list-vote-supreme-court/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/kavanaughs-confirmation-process-democrats-in-the-senate/"target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). For the purposes of this question, both Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) will count. This question will remain open until a confirmation vote is held or until the last day of the 115th Congress. In the event Kavanaugh's confirmation is withdrawn, the question will be voided.
<hr>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<a href = "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00223#position"target="_blank">Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat</a> to vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh. This question closed on "1" with an end date of 6 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-06T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:13.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2225, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 357, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 993, "question_name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:40.116Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:59.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-06T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:14.012Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2226, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 357, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 993, "question_name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:31.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:59.962Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-06T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:14.068Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2227, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 357, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 993, "question_name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:24.957Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:00.849Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-06T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:14.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2228, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 357, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 993, "question_name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:11.293Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:01.651Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-06T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:14.195Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2229, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 148, "predictions_count": 357, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 993, "question_name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:02.855Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:02.499Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 401, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-10-07T04:20:39.821Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "Senate Democrats, particularly those in states carried by President Trump in 2016, are being closely watched in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process (<a href = \"https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/brett-kavanaugh-senators-whip-list-vote-supreme-court/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/kavanaughs-confirmation-process-democrats-in-the-senate/\"target=\"_blank\">SCOTUSBlog</a>). For the purposes of this question, both Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) will count. This question will remain open until a confirmation vote is held or until the last day of the 115th Congress. In the event Kavanaugh's confirmation is withdrawn, the question will be voided.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<a href = \"https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00223#position\"target=\"_blank\">Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat</a> to vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh. This question closed on \"1\" with an end date of 6 October 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-02T07:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 993, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:41.281+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:06.612+00:00"}, "name": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 357, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 148, "published_at": "2018-08-01T15:39:14.368Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-08T14:10:40.191Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-10-06T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-08-01T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/383 | Although the next general election is not due until 2018, outgoing Prime Minister Mateo Renzi's failed constitutional referendum has set off a political crisis in Italy which may lead to early elections (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21711320-prime-minister-who-led-italy-political-crash-has-resigned-how-choose-next"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/italy-will-have-to-wait-until-march-for-elections-analyst.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-vote-idUSKBN1411BX"target = "_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382"target = "_blank">whether Geert Wilders will become prime minister of the Netherlands</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353"target = "_blank">Ban Ki-moon will announce that he is running for president of South Korea</a></sub>
The next Italian general election did not yet occur. This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:49.915Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 711, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 April 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 200, "predictions_count": 1170, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 383, "question_name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:59:10.929Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:02.429Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:49.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 712, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 200, "predictions_count": 1170, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 383, "question_name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T17:01:23.000Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:02.759Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:49.938Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 713, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 200, "predictions_count": 1170, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 383, "question_name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:56:53.876Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:03.104Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:49.952Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 714, "membership_id": 29512, "name": " Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 200, "predictions_count": 1170, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 383, "question_name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:55:16.533Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:03.343Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:49.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 715, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 200, "predictions_count": 1170, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 383, "question_name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T17:03:06.120Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:03.604Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1214, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-16T18:57:57.696Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 349, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "2%", "description": "Although the next general election is not due until 2018, outgoing Prime Minister Mateo Renzi's failed constitutional referendum has set off a political crisis in Italy which may lead to early elections (<a href = \"http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21711320-prime-minister-who-led-italy-political-crash-has-resigned-how-choose-next\"target = \"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/italy-will-have-to-wait-until-march-for-elections-analyst.html\"target = \"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-vote-idUSKBN1411BX\"target = \"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382\"target = \"_blank\">whether Geert Wilders will become prime minister of the Netherlands</a> or on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353\"target = \"_blank\">Ban Ki-moon will announce that he is running for president of South Korea</a></sub>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe next Italian general election did not yet occur. This question closed as \"Not before 1 January 2018\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 383, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:27:39.822+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:26.655+00:00"}, "name": "When will the next Italian general election occur?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1170, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 200, "published_at": "2017-01-10T08:19:50.012Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T17:03:06.257Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-10T10:00:34.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-10T18:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/954 | LIBOR is a benchmark rate used by some of the world's largest banks to determine what to charge each other for short-term loans (<a href="https://www.theice.com/iba/libor" target="_blank">ICE</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the Wall Street Journal <a href="http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html" target="_blank">here</a>. For historical data on a slight delay, see: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USD1MTD156N#0" target="_blank">the St. Louis Fed</a>.
<hr>
The one month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June was 2.09025. This question closed as "More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%" with and end date of 29 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.009Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2134, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 1.90%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 954, "question_name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:27.487Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:59.735Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.177Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2135, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1.90% and 2.00%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 954, "question_name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:26.008Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:00.143Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.294Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2136, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 135, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 954, "question_name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:24.420Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:00.809Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.378Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2137, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 2.10% and 2.20% inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 954, "question_name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:22.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:01.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.448Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2138, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 2.20%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 135, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 954, "question_name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:21.530Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:01.501Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 138, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "LIBOR is a benchmark rate used by some of the world's largest banks to determine what to charge each other for short-term loans (<a href=\"https://www.theice.com/iba/libor\" target=\"_blank\">ICE</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the Wall Street Journal <a href=\"http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. For historical data on a slight delay, see: <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USD1MTD156N#0\" target=\"_blank\">the St. Louis Fed</a>.\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe one month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June was 2.09025. This question closed as \"More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%\" with and end date of 29 June 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-28T06:59:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 954, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:26.259+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:57.420+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 135, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 35, "published_at": "2018-05-16T18:14:05.669Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:37:27.499Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-16T11:30:48.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-16T18:30:48.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:26.268Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/890 | The 2018 Olympic Games are being held in Pyeongchang, South Korea from 7 - 25 February (<a href = "https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/general/competition-schedule.htm"target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>). The 2018 medal standings are being updated <a href = "https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/general/medal-standings.htm"target="_blank">here</a>. At the 2014 Winter Olympics, Russia, Norway, Canada, and the United States were the top four in the gold medal count; the Netherlands and Germany tied for fifth (<a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/olympic-medal-count-2014-2"target="_blank">Business Insider</a>). In the event of a tie in the gold medal count, we will use the total number of medals to serve as a tiebreaker, followed by the total silver medals and then bronze medals, if needed.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
While Norway and Germany tied with 14 gold medals each, Norway wins the tie breaker with most medals overall. This question closed as "Norway" with an end date of 25 February 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.182Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1955, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Norway", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:58:19.340Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:34.645Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.242Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1956, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Canada", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:58:12.063Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:34.841Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.302Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1957, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "United States", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:58:06.016Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:34.995Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.361Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1958, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Netherlands", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:57:58.960Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:35.285Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.418Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1959, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Germany", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:57:54.308Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:35.573Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-25T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.465Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1960, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Another country", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 378, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 890, "question_name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:57:46.269Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:35.841Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 485, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-02-18T17:48:42.939Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "30%", "description": "The 2018 Olympic Games are being held in Pyeongchang, South Korea from 7 - 25 February (<a href = \"https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/general/competition-schedule.htm\"target=\"_blank\">Olympic.org</a>). The 2018 medal standings are being updated <a href = \"https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/general/medal-standings.htm\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>. At the 2014 Winter Olympics, Russia, Norway, Canada, and the United States were the top four in the gold medal count; the Netherlands and Germany tied for fifth (<a href = \"http://www.businessinsider.com/olympic-medal-count-2014-2\"target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>). In the event of a tie in the gold medal count, we will use the total number of medals to serve as a tiebreaker, followed by the total silver medals and then bronze medals, if needed.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nWhile Norway and Germany tied with 14 gold medals each, Norway wins the tie breaker with most medals overall. This question closed as \"Norway\" with an end date of 25 February 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-02-26T07:59:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 890, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:44.908+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:31.182+00:00"}, "name": "Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games? \r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 378, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 133, "published_at": "2018-02-15T19:46:16.640Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-26T18:58:19.359Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-02-25T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-15T12:00:36.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-02-15T20:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/953 | Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end by the <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom" target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>. For historical data, see: <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>.
<hr>
This question closed as "b) Between 4.75% and 4.85% inclusive" with an end date of 22 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.mba.org/2018-press-releases/june/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x235787"target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.255Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2129, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 4.75%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 953, "question_name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:23.384Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:57.358Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.279Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2130, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 953, "question_name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:21.610Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:58.029Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.305Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2131, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 4.85% but less than 4.95%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 953, "question_name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:19.729Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:58.662Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.331Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2132, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 4.95% and 5.05%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 953, "question_name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:15.962Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:59.027Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.357Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2133, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 5.05%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 953, "question_name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:12.172Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:59.380Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 115, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-20T14:37:10.280Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "11%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end by the <a href=\"https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom\" target=\"_blank\">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>. For historical data, see: <a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"b) Between 4.75% and 4.85% inclusive\" with an end date of 22 June 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.mba.org/2018-press-releases/june/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x235787\"target=\"_blank\">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-22T06:59:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 953, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:09.214+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:49.634+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2018-05-16T18:09:32.429Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:20:23.398Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-16T11:30:41.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-16T18:30:41.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:09.225Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/817 | This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = "http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics"target="_blank">London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-19T20:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:10:15.451Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1836, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $1,225", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 817, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:42.086Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:43.271Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-19T20:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:10:15.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1835, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,225 and $1,250, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 817, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:45.929Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:43.059Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-19T20:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:10:15.174Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1834, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,250 but less than $1,275", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 817, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:48.612Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:42.783Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-19T20:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:10:14.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1833, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,275 and $1,300, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 817, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:50.692Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:42.537Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-19T20:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:10:14.871Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1832, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,300", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 159, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 817, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:53.273Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:42.177Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 162, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-14T10:45:22.661Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "20%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = \"http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics\"target=\"_blank\">London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-19T04:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 817, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:46.627+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:18.089+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 19 December 2017 in USD?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 159, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2017-12-13T17:23:09.915Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is 1260.35 per resolution instructions website."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:02:53.311Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-13T09:23:09.915-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-13T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/505 | MPLA won 150 of 220 seats. This question was closed as “a) majority” with an end date of 26 August 2017. (<a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/09/06/angola-s-ruling-mpla-won-august-23-polls-by-61-of-votes-final-results/, http://allafrica.com/stories/201709110873.html" target="_blank">Africa News</a>)
Angola's president of over 30 years, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, announced that he will step down as president before the 2017 elections, creating uncertainty over whether the MPLA will maintain its dominant role in Angolan politics (<a href = "www.dw.com/en/angolas-new-president-in-waiting/a-36705629"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href = "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/21218/angola-prepares-for-life-after-dos-santos"target="_blank">World Politics Review</a>, <a href = "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/thousands-rally-in-angola-demanding-fair-election-20170603"target="_blank">News24</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/500-before-1-december-2017-will-it-be-announced-that-wang-qishan-has-been-elected-to-another-term-on-the-politburo-standing-committee-of-the-communist-party-of-china"target="_blank">Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/499-when-will-the-farc-register-a-new-political-party"target="_blank">When will the FARC register a new political party?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-26T06:59:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:53:20.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1006, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A majority", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 505, "question_name": "What proportion of seats will the MPLA win in Angola's upcoming parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T15:32:38.499Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:49.522Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-26T06:59:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:53:20.424Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1007, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "A plurality, but not a majority", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 505, "question_name": "What proportion of seats will the MPLA win in Angola's upcoming parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T15:32:30.161Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:49.751Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-26T06:59:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:53:20.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1008, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not a plurality", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 59, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 505, "question_name": "What proportion of seats will the MPLA win in Angola's upcoming parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T15:32:16.883Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:50.019Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 285, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-06-20T20:26:34.141Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 66, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "MPLA won 150 of 220 seats. This question was closed as \u201ca) majority\u201d with an end date of 26 August 2017. (<a href=\"http://www.africanews.com/2017/09/06/angola-s-ruling-mpla-won-august-23-polls-by-61-of-votes-final-results/, http://allafrica.com/stories/201709110873.html\" target=\"_blank\">Africa News</a>)\r\n\r\nAngola's president of over 30 years, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, announced that he will step down as president before the 2017 elections, creating uncertainty over whether the MPLA will maintain its dominant role in Angolan politics (<a href = \"www.dw.com/en/angolas-new-president-in-waiting/a-36705629\"target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href = \"http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/21218/angola-prepares-for-life-after-dos-santos\"target=\"_blank\">World Politics Review</a>, <a href = \"http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/thousands-rally-in-angola-demanding-fair-election-20170603\"target=\"_blank\">News24</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions: \r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/494-what-percentage-of-the-popular-vote-will-the-alternative-for-germany-party-win-in-germany-s-next-federal-election\"target=\"_blank\">What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/500-before-1-december-2017-will-it-be-announced-that-wang-qishan-has-been-elected-to-another-term-on-the-politburo-standing-committee-of-the-communist-party-of-china\"target=\"_blank\">Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/499-when-will-the-farc-register-a-new-political-party\"target=\"_blank\">When will the FARC register a new political party?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:43.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 505, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:54.927+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:37.485+00:00"}, "name": "What proportion of seats will the MPLA win in Angola's upcoming parliamentary elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 274, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 59, "published_at": "2017-06-20T15:53:20.514Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-13T15:32:38.584Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-25T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-20T10:00:43.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-20T17:00:43.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1042 | Outcome will be determined by the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2019 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2018, 57.98% of all domestic U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2018 can be found on page 4 of the <a href="https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-mid-year-2018.pdf?force_download=true" target="_blank">SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard</a>, in the table labeled Report 1, first row, "All Domestic Funds". Published reports can be found <a href="http://us.spindices.com/search/?ContentType=SPIVA&_ga=1.267344909.267841571.1488383688." target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed "More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2019 (<a href="https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-mid-year-2019.pdf" target="_blank">Spindicies.com</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:54:16.693Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2363, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 40.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 323, "predictions_count": 626, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1042, "question_name": "What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-14T15:44:20.439Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:35.541Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:54:16.730Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2364, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 40.00% and 60.00%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 323, "predictions_count": 626, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1042, "question_name": "What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-14T15:44:12.914Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:35.939Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:54:16.767Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2365, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 323, "predictions_count": 626, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1042, "question_name": "What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-14T15:44:05.612Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:36.214Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-07-01T17:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:54:16.803Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2366, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "80.00% or more\u000b", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 323, "predictions_count": 626, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1042, "question_name": "What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-14T15:43:58.083Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:36.422Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 642, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Outcome will be determined by the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2019 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2018, 57.98% of all domestic U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2018 can be found on page 4 of the <a href=\"https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-mid-year-2018.pdf?force_download=true\" target=\"_blank\">SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard</a>, in the table labeled Report 1, first row, \"All Domestic Funds\". Published reports can be found <a href=\"http://us.spindices.com/search/?ContentType=SPIVA&_ga=1.267344909.267841571.1488383688.\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed \"More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%\" with a closing date of 1 July 2019 (<a href=\"https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-mid-year-2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Spindicies.com</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;\">See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-07-01T06:59:12.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1042, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:56.398+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:30.615+00:00"}, "name": "What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 626, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 323, "published_at": "2018-11-16T15:54:16.936Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-14T15:44:20.452Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-16T10:00:12.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-16T18:00:12.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1091 | Schedules and matchups may be found here: <a href = "http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture"target="_blank">NFL.com</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The New England Patriots defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 37-31. The question closed on the New England Patriots with a closing date of 20 January 2019.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.602Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2471, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:54.863Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:12.660Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.657Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2472, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "New England Patriots", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:53.286Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:13.139Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.698Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2473, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Houston Texans", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:51.899Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:13.680Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.736Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2474, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Baltimore Ravens", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:50.520Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:14.321Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.766Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2475, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:48.903Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:15.193Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-21T04:55:03.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.818Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2476, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Indianapolis Colts", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 99, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1091, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:47.497Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:16.179Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 154, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Schedules and matchups may be found here: <a href = \"http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture\"target=\"_blank\">NFL.com</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe New England Patriots defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 37-31. The question closed on the New England Patriots with a closing date of 20 January 2019.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-21T07:59:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1091, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:58:41.940+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:54.460+00:00"}, "name": "Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 153, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 99, "published_at": "2019-01-04T18:58:17.998Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-21T15:11:54.874Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-01-20T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-04T14:00:54.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-04T22:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.984Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/805 | This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = "http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics"target="_blank">London Bullion Market Association </a>(LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T19:16:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-06T13:44:57.015Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1790, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $1235", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 232, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 805, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:33.441Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:34.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T19:16:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-06T13:44:57.044Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1791, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1235 and $1270, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 232, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 805, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:30.979Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:34.689Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T19:16:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-06T13:44:57.065Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1792, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1270 but less than $1295", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 232, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 805, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:28.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:34.864Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T19:16:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-06T13:44:57.093Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1793, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1295 and $1325, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 232, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 805, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:26.296Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:35.054Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T19:16:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-06T13:44:57.117Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1794, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1325", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 83, "predictions_count": 232, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 805, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:22.725Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:35.325Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 232, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-06T17:05:30.288Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 8, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the last daily <a href = \"http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics\"target=\"_blank\">London Bullion Market Association </a>(LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-15T04:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 805, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:51.975+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:56.485+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 232, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 83, "published_at": "2017-12-06T16:02:54.973Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is 1254.60 per resolution instructions."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T19:21:33.459Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-14T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-06T09:00:39.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-06T17:00:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/808 | This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> in the "Sunday's Broadcast Ratings" summary of 10 December 2017.
Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:
10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic </a>)
12 November 2017: 15.329 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112"target="_blank">The Futon Critic </a>)
19 November 2017: 18.772 million viewers (<a href = "http://www.thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/20/sundays-broadcast-ratings-cowboys-eagles-showdown-puts-nbc-on-top-893502/broadcast_20171119/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
26 November 2017: 16.358 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/27/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-top-spot-500410/broadcast_20171126/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
3 December 2017: 16.169 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/12/04/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-continue-reign-993000/broadcast_20171203/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
According to <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/12/11/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-another-victory-699505/broadcast_20171210/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> 15.933 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on December 10, 2017. This question was closed as "Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive" with an end date of 11 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:56.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1801, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 32, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 808, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:43.509Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:35.549Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:57.030Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1802, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 32, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 808, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:40.186Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:35.692Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:57.090Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1803, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 32, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 808, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:36.739Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:35.912Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:57.243Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1804, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 32, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 808, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:33.112Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.057Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T18:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:57.308Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1805, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 16 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 32, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 808, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:29.825Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.255Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 37, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 10 December 2017. \r\n\r\nFast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows: \r\n\r\n10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic </a>)\r\n\r\n12 November 2017: 15.329 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic </a>)\r\n\r\n19 November 2017: 18.772 million viewers (<a href = \"http://www.thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/20/sundays-broadcast-ratings-cowboys-eagles-showdown-puts-nbc-on-top-893502/broadcast_20171119/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n26 November 2017: 16.358 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/27/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-top-spot-500410/broadcast_20171126/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n3 December 2017: 16.169 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/12/04/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-continue-reign-993000/broadcast_20171203/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\nNOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAccording to <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/12/11/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-another-victory-699505/broadcast_20171210/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> 15.933 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on December 10, 2017. This question was closed as \"Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive\" with an end date of 11 December 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-11T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 808, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:15.283+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:58.430+00:00"}, "name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 10 December 2017? \r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 32, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2017-12-08T16:42:57.664Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T20:25:43.639Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-08T10:00:01.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-08T18:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/555 | In July 2017, a UN conference negotiated the text for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (<a href = "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57139#.WXT5i4opBTZ"target="_blank">The United Nations</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/17/the-u-n-just-passed-a-treaty-outlawing-nuclear-weapons-that-actually-matters/?utm_term=.1044e36e1f48"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). Starting on 20 September 2017 at the UN General Assembly, any UN member state can sign it (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/world/americas/united-nations-nuclear-weapons-prohibition-destruction-global-treaty.html?mcubz=2"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
53 member states signed the <https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVI-9&chapter=26&clang=_en"target="_blank">UN Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty</a> before 1 November 2017. This question closed as "b) Between 50 and 100, inclusive," with an end date of 1 November 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T17:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T15:51:21.088Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1130, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 50", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 169, "predictions_count": 554, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 555, "question_name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:32:42.120Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:51.433Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T17:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T15:51:21.123Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1131, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 50 and 100, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 169, "predictions_count": 554, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 555, "question_name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:32:49.859Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:51.908Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T17:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T15:51:21.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1132, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 100 but less than 122", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 169, "predictions_count": 554, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 555, "question_name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:32:58.552Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:52.214Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T17:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T15:51:21.170Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1133, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 122 and 140, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 169, "predictions_count": 554, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 555, "question_name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:33:05.647Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:52.954Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T17:00:02.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-14T15:51:21.198Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1134, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 140", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 169, "predictions_count": 554, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 555, "question_name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:33:12.634Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:54.258Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 572, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-22T15:14:12.190Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 39, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "49%", "description": "In July 2017, a UN conference negotiated the text for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (<a href = \"http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57139#.WXT5i4opBTZ\"target=\"_blank\">The United Nations</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/17/the-u-n-just-passed-a-treaty-outlawing-nuclear-weapons-that-actually-matters/?utm_term=.1044e36e1f48\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>). Starting on 20 September 2017 at the UN General Assembly, any UN member state can sign it (<a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/world/americas/united-nations-nuclear-weapons-prohibition-destruction-global-treaty.html?mcubz=2\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n53 member states signed the <https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVI-9&chapter=26&clang=_en\"target=\"_blank\">UN Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty</a> before 1 November 2017. This question closed as \"b) Between 50 and 100, inclusive,\" with an end date of 1 November 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 555, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:51.451+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:18.810+00:00"}, "name": "How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 554, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 169, "published_at": "2017-08-16T15:20:31.717Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T20:33:12.650Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-16T09:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-16T16:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/999 | The Wisconsin gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Tony Evers is running against Republican incumbent Scott Walker (<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_evers-6606.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-14T16:46:27.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2245, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Scott Walker (R)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 999, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:23:08.943Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:11.624Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-14T16:46:27.533Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2246, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Tony Evers (D)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 999, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:22:51.498Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:12.666Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-14T16:46:27.615Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2247, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 999, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:22:33.085Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:13.518Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 195, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-10-25T15:55:00.823Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "79%", "description": "The Wisconsin gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Tony Evers is running against Republican incumbent Scott Walker (<a href = \"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_evers-6606.html\"target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\u000b", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 999, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:05.672+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:41.066+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?\u000b", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 180, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 90, "published_at": "2018-09-14T16:46:27.764Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:23:09.047Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-09-14T10:00:04.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-09-14T17:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/532 | Outcome determined by the total cases of polio, both wild (WPV) and vaccine circulated (cVDPD), reported by the <a href = "http://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/"target="_blank">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>. War and political instability have undermined polio eradication efforts in Africa and the Middle East, with new human cases of polio emerging in countries that had previously eradicated the disease (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/06/21/how-war-brought-cholera-and-polio-back-to-the-middle-east/?utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_term=.1c4ee108ac0f"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jun/14/polio-outbreaks-in-drc-sets-back-global-efforts-to-eradicate-the-disease"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.
<hr>
Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of The Congo, and Syria experienced 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017. This question closed as "three" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.269Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1056, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 532, "question_name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:06:12.725Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:05.136Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.308Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1057, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 532, "question_name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:07:13.589Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:05.490Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.339Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1058, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 532, "question_name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:03:59.164Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:06.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.365Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1059, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 532, "question_name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:02:47.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:07.197Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:00.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.394Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1060, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "5 or more ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 132, "predictions_count": 569, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 532, "question_name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:05:08.652Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:08.500Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 657, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-05T22:43:25.472Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 56, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "66%", "description": "Outcome determined by the total cases of polio, both wild (WPV) and vaccine circulated (cVDPD), reported by the <a href = \"http://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/\"target=\"_blank\">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>. War and political instability have undermined polio eradication efforts in Africa and the Middle East, with new human cases of polio emerging in countries that had previously eradicated the disease (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/06/21/how-war-brought-cholera-and-polio-back-to-the-middle-east/?utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_term=.1c4ee108ac0f\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jun/14/polio-outbreaks-in-drc-sets-back-global-efforts-to-eradicate-the-disease\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAfghanistan, Democratic Republic of The Congo, and Syria experienced 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017. This question closed as \"three\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 532, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:45.287+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:26.241+00:00"}, "name": "How many countries will experience 10 or more cases of poliovirus in 2017?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 569, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 132, "published_at": "2017-07-18T15:23:09.596Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T16:07:13.833Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-18T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-18T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/785 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OCED</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:13:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:43.528Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1732, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 0.02", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 785, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Hungary (HUN) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:16:06.578Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:08.343Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:13:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:43.571Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1733, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 0.02 and 0.30, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 785, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Hungary (HUN) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:15:52.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:09.138Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-12T16:13:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:00:43.627Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1734, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 0.30", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 785, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Hungary (HUN) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:15:38.952Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:09.548Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 121, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-29T21:10:17.898Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = \"https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OCED</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T04:59:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 785, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:29.230+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:10.745+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for Hungary (HUN) in December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 79, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:50:33.633Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-12T16:16:06.740Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/816 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php"target="_blank">Energy Information Administration</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T18:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:09:46.365Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1831, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $60.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 816, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:18.447Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:41.794Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T18:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:09:46.314Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1830, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $60.00 and $63.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 816, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:20.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:41.424Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T18:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:09:46.222Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1829, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $63.00 and less than $66.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 816, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:22.514Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:41.031Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T18:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:09:46.171Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1828, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $66.00 and $69.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 816, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:24.319Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:40.765Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T18:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-13T17:09:46.035Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1827, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $69.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 181, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 816, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:26.137Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:40.394Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 185, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-14T16:23:04.019Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "17%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the <a href = \"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php\"target=\"_blank\">Energy Information Administration</a>.\u00a0\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-20T04:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 816, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:59.184+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:15.426+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 181, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 78, "published_at": "2017-12-13T17:23:29.898Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-29T14:39:26.154Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-13T09:23:29.898-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-13T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/260 | This question was closed on answer option "a) Before 1 November 2016" with an end date of 21 September 2016. Tesla released its 8.0 software update on 21 September 2016 and that update included off ramp capabilities (<a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-8-0-update-autopilot-cabin-overheat-protection-update/" target="_blank">CNET</a>, <a href="http://jalopnik.com/tesla-s-updated-autopilot-uses-radar-for-safety-can-ex-1786503271" target="_blank">Jalopnik</a>, <a href="http://autoweek.com/article/technology/radar-rescue-tesla-updates-autopilot" target="_blank">Autoweek</a>, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-software-update-8-features-2016-9/#the-improved-autopilot-also-enables-tesla-vehicles-to-automatically-exit-off-ramps-when-the-indicator-is-on-8" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).
Tesla’s Autopilot system, released via an over-the-air (OTA) software update in October 2015, is a major advance towards self-driving technology providing drivers with semi-autonomous drive and parking capabilities (<a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived" target="_blank">Tesla</a>). However, a fatal crash in Florida in May 2016 when a Tesla was in Autopilot mode and two other crashes in Montana and Pennsylvania have prompted consumer advocates to call on Tesla to reconsider its approach towards self-driving technology and make significant changes to its Autopilot system. They are also advocating regulatory oversight over the launch of self-driving features to ensure consumer safety (<a href="http://www.consumerreports.org/tesla/tesla-autopilot-too-much-autonomy-too-soon/" target="_blank">Consumer Reports</a>). Tesla insists on the safety of the Autopilot system and plans to introduce new features and enhancements (<a href="http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/07/17/elon-musk-says-tesla-working-better-autopilot/" target="_blank">CBS SF Bay Area</a>, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/18/technology/elon-musk-tesla-autopilot-upgrade/index.html?category=technology" target="_blank">CNN Money</a>). A Tesla 8.0 software update is currently in beta, and is rumored to include a new Autopilot feature that allows the car to exit the highway onto an off-ramp after the driver activates the turn signal (<a href="http://electrek.co/2016/06/30/tesla-8-0-update-new-autopilot-features-ui-refresh-more-model-s-x/" target="_blank">electrek</a>).
On 12 September 2016, the answer options to this question were corrected.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-21T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-12T13:46:24.966Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 494, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 November 2016", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 260, "question_name": "When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T16:49:46.678Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:48.744Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-21T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-12T13:46:24.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 495, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 November 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 260, "question_name": "When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T16:49:51.254Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:48.986Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-21T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-12T13:46:25.016Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 496, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 118, "predictions_count": 268, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 260, "question_name": "When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T16:49:39.302Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:49.311Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 299, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-09-12T16:08:28.815Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 9, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "78%", "description": "This question was closed on answer option \"a) Before 1 November 2016\" with an end date of 21 September 2016. Tesla released its 8.0 software update on 21 September 2016 and that update included off ramp capabilities (<a href=\"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-8-0-update-autopilot-cabin-overheat-protection-update/\" target=\"_blank\">CNET</a>, <a href=\"http://jalopnik.com/tesla-s-updated-autopilot-uses-radar-for-safety-can-ex-1786503271\" target=\"_blank\">Jalopnik</a>, <a href=\"http://autoweek.com/article/technology/radar-rescue-tesla-updates-autopilot\" target=\"_blank\">Autoweek</a>, <a href=\"http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-software-update-8-features-2016-9/#the-improved-autopilot-also-enables-tesla-vehicles-to-automatically-exit-off-ramps-when-the-indicator-is-on-8\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>). \r\n\r\nTesla\u2019s Autopilot system, released via an over-the-air (OTA) software update in October 2015, is a major advance towards self-driving technology providing drivers with semi-autonomous drive and parking capabilities (<a href=\"https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla</a>). However, a fatal crash in Florida in May 2016 when a Tesla was in Autopilot mode and two other crashes in Montana and Pennsylvania have prompted consumer advocates to call on Tesla to reconsider its approach towards self-driving technology and make significant changes to its Autopilot system. They are also advocating regulatory oversight over the launch of self-driving features to ensure consumer safety (<a href=\"http://www.consumerreports.org/tesla/tesla-autopilot-too-much-autonomy-too-soon/\" target=\"_blank\">Consumer Reports</a>). Tesla insists on the safety of the Autopilot system and plans to introduce new features and enhancements (<a href=\"http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/07/17/elon-musk-says-tesla-working-better-autopilot/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS SF Bay Area</a>, <a href=\"http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/18/technology/elon-musk-tesla-autopilot-upgrade/index.html?category=technology\" target=\"_blank\">CNN Money</a>). A Tesla 8.0 software update is currently in beta, and is rumored to include a new Autopilot feature that allows the car to exit the highway onto an off-ramp after the driver activates the turn signal (<a href=\"http://electrek.co/2016/06/30/tesla-8-0-update-new-autopilot-features-ui-refresh-more-model-s-x/\" target=\"_blank\">electrek</a>).\r\n\r\nOn 12 September 2016, the answer options to this question were corrected.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/167\" target=\"_blank\">Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/185\" target=\"_blank\">Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/261\" target=\"_blank\">Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 260, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:16.162+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:10:41.238+00:00"}, "name": "When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 268, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 118, "published_at": "2016-08-12T13:46:25.086Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-04T16:49:51.264Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-09-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-12T10:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-12T17:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.849Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1104 | The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46543252" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/about-the-uk-house-price-index#uk-house-price-index-release-dates" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#uk-annual-growth-rate-increases-in-november" target="_blank">here</a>.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed "Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 October 2019 (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/september2019" target="_blank">Gov.uk</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:21.970Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2509, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than -3.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1138, "predictions_count": 1433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1104, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:14:22.653Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:46.130Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:21.996Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2510, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1138, "predictions_count": 1433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1104, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:14:01.760Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:48.063Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:22.026Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2511, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than -1.0% but less than 1.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1138, "predictions_count": 1433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1104, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:13:38.231Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:48.967Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:22.063Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2512, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1138, "predictions_count": 1433, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1104, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:12:44.042Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:50.268Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:22.093Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2513, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 3.0% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1138, "predictions_count": 1433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1104, "question_name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:13:11.092Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:51.160Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1453, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46543252\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (<a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/about-the-uk-house-price-index#uk-house-price-index-release-dates\" target=\"_blank\">GOV.UK</a>). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found <a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#uk-annual-growth-rate-increases-in-november\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.<p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed \"Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 October 2019 (<a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/september2019\" target=\"_blank\">Gov.uk</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;\">See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-10-01T06:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1104, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:08:37.588+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:59:39.154+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1433, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1138, "published_at": "2019-01-24T15:16:22.167Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-11-13T17:14:22.668Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-24T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.993Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/775 | This question will be resolved using the approval rate reported for the time of interest on Nippon Hōsō Kyōkai (NHK)'s <a href = "https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2017.html"target="_blank">website</a>. The cabinet approval rate is reported as 支持する ("Support to”) in the first table 内閣：安倍内閣 (“Cabinet: Abe Cabinet”) on that page. The question will be resolved using Google Translate services. Months are indicated by their corresponding number (e.g. 1月 = January). If NHK conducts more than one survey in a month, question resolution will be based on the first set of results posted.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:47.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1684, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 41", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 775, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:05.891Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:19.907Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:47.702Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1685, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 41 and 44, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 775, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:06.966Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:21.166Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:47.778Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1686, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 44 but less than 48", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 775, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:10.158Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:21.938Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:47.867Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1687, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 48 and 51, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 775, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:09.094Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:22.335Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-11T17:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:47.958Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1688, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 51", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 775, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:08.030Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:22.791Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 69, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-17T09:11:46.016Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": -6, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "150%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the approval rate reported for the time of interest on Nippon H\u014ds\u014d Ky\u014dkai (NHK)'s <a href = \"https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2017.html\"target=\"_blank\">website</a>. The cabinet approval rate is reported as \u652f\u6301\u3059\u308b (\"Support to\u201d) in the first table \u5185\u95a3\uff1a\u5b89\u500d\u5185\u95a3 (\u201cCabinet: Abe Cabinet\u201d) on that page. The question will be resolved using Google Translate services. Months are indicated by their corresponding number (e.g. 1\u6708 = January). If NHK conducts more than one survey in a month, question resolution will be based on the first set of results posted.\u00a0\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T04:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 775, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:07.372+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:46.518+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 69, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:15:57.712Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is 49 per the most recent survey. According the home page the survey was published on December 11, 2017. The survey was conducted from December 8th - 10th."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T20:38:10.198Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-11T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/269 | This question was closed on "Between $40 and $50,00, inclusive" with an end date of 30 November 2016. The final settlement price of the January 2017 futures contract on 30 November 2016 was $45.07. (<a href="http://dubaimerc.com/uploads/dme_historical_data/30112016_DME_Exchange_Products.pdf" target="_blank">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Outcome will be determined by the final settlement price of the January 2017 futures contract on 30 November 2016 at the <a href="http://dubaimerc.com/dme-data" target="_blank">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>. Select trading data for 30 November 2016. The relevant price can be found under the section titled "DME Oman Crude Oil," on the row listed Jan17 and the column listed "Sett. Price & Pt. Change." The final settlement price for the August 2016 futures contract was 47.76 (<a href="http://dubaimerc.com/uploads/dme_historical_data/23082016_DME_Exchange_Products.pdf" target="_blank">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>).
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-30T18:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T14:54:04.138Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 513, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than $40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 857, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 269, "question_name": "What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:12:23.006Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:54.118Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-30T18:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T14:54:04.162Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 514, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between $40 and $50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 857, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 269, "question_name": "What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:12:33.096Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:54.358Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-30T18:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T14:54:04.180Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 515, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than $50 but less than $60", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 857, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 269, "question_name": "What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:12:42.606Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:55.255Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-30T18:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T14:54:04.192Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 516, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "$60 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 857, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 269, "question_name": "What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:12:50.792Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:55.447Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 884, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-31T19:32:44.132Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 91, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed on \"Between $40 and $50,00, inclusive\" with an end date of 30 November 2016. The final settlement price of the January 2017 futures contract on 30 November 2016 was $45.07. (<a href=\"http://dubaimerc.com/uploads/dme_historical_data/30112016_DME_Exchange_Products.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nOutcome will be determined by the final settlement price of the January 2017 futures contract on 30 November 2016 at the <a href=\"http://dubaimerc.com/dme-data\" target=\"_blank\">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>. Select trading data for 30 November 2016. The relevant price can be found under the section titled \"DME Oman Crude Oil,\" on the row listed Jan17 and the column listed \"Sett. Price & Pt. Change.\" The final settlement price for the August 2016 futures contract was 47.76 (<a href=\"http://dubaimerc.com/uploads/dme_historical_data/23082016_DME_Exchange_Products.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Dubai Mercantile Exchange</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/200\" target=\"_blank\">Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/155\" target=\"_blank\">What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-12-01T07:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 269, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:15:56.576+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:16.719+00:00"}, "name": "What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 857, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 214, "published_at": "2016-08-31T14:54:04.239Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-06T14:12:50.806Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-30T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-31T10:00:28.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-31T17:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.853Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
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