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True | 2023-11-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2926 |
<p>The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-new-curbs-on-ai-chip-exports-to-china-56b17feb" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-06-27/us-considering-new-restrictions-on-ai-chip-exports-to-china-wsj" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/8/23447886/nvidia-a800-china-chip-ai-research-slowed-down-restrictions" target="_blank">The Verge</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Chinese entities" are those on the "Entity List" maintained by the Commerce Department (<a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-744/appendix-Supplement%20No.%204%20to%20Part%20744" target="_blank">Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List</a>, see "CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF," <a href="https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/entity-list" target="_blank">Bureau of Industry and Security</a>). "Current A800 microchips" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: <a href="https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-introduces-a800-data-center-gpu-for-china" target="_blank">VideoCardz</a>. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., <a href="https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file" target="_blank">Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022</a>). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-10 | Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license? | 2023-07-06 | [["2023-07-07", 0.73], ["2023-07-07", 0.865], ["2023-07-07", 0.8433], ["2023-07-07", 0.9033], ["2023-07-08", 0.8475], ["2023-07-08", 0.878], ["2023-07-08", 0.89], ["2023-07-08", 0.8986], ["2023-07-08", 0.9113], ["2023-07-08", 0.8878], ["2023-07-08", 0.864], ["2023-07-08", 0.8618], ["2023-07-08", 0.8067], ["2023-07-08", 0.7831], ["2023-07-08", 0.7379], ["2023-07-08", 0.7553], ["2023-07-09", 0.7313], ["2023-07-09", 0.75], ["2023-07-09", 0.7588], ["2023-07-09", 0.7611], ["2023-07-09", 0.7421], ["2023-07-09", 0.745], ["2023-07-10", 0.7271], ["2023-07-10", 0.7214], ["2023-07-10", 0.6904], ["2023-07-10", 0.6861], ["2023-07-11", 0.6358], ["2023-07-11", 0.6154], ["2023-07-12", 0.6345], 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"https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-restricts-exports-some-nvidia-chips-middle-east-countries-filing-2023-08-30/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/aug/31/us-restricts-exports-of-nvidia-ai-chips-to-middle-east", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-08/us-set-to-limit-scope-of-china-investment-ban-with-revenue-rule", "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231003VL200/china-ic-manufacturing-us-china-chip-war-us.html", "https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/10/ai-chip-wars-us-curbs-nvidia-gpu-chip-exports-sooner-than-expected/", "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/27/business/us-commerce-secretary-raimondo-china-visit-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-curbs-chip-tools-china-nearly-finalized-posting-2023-10-05/", "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/everyone-wants-to-talk-to-gina-raimondoeven-china-38629492?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak", "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230828PD202.html", "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231016VL206/china-ic-manufacturing.html", "https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-and-china-take-steps-to-ease-tensions-over-export-control-policies-raimondo-says-1c671436?mod=china_news_article_pos3", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/", "https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1miw1h&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email", "https://www.theregister.com/2023/07/28/us_china_ai_chip/", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-warned-china-expect-updated-export-curbs-october-us-official-2023-10-02/", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000221/nvda-20231023.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000217/nvda-20231017.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-china-agree-export-controls-information-exchange-2023-08-28/", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-says-us-speeded-up-new-export-curbs-ai-chips-2023-10-24/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3170 |
<p>Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/houthi-missile-strikes-merchant-ship-red-sea-us/story?id=105570184" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-13/us-warship-shoots-down-houthi-drone-launched-from-yemen-us-official" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67607862" target="_blank">BBC</a>). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-12 | Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024? | 2023-12-15 | [["2023-12-15", 0.75], ["2023-12-15", 0.675], ["2023-12-16", 0.7833], ["2023-12-16", 0.8375], ["2023-12-16", 0.85], ["2023-12-16", 0.8083], ["2023-12-16", 0.7357], ["2023-12-17", 0.7688], ["2023-12-17", 0.7944], ["2023-12-17", 0.775], ["2023-12-17", 0.7645], ["2023-12-17", 0.7475], ["2023-12-18", 0.7475], ["2023-12-18", 0.7477], ["2023-12-18", 0.7121], ["2023-12-18", 0.7113], ["2023-12-18", 0.7231], ["2023-12-18", 0.7047], ["2023-12-18", 0.6956], ["2023-12-18", 0.6988], ["2023-12-18", 0.7144], ["2023-12-19", 0.7312], ["2023-12-19", 0.7239], ["2023-12-19", 0.6769], ["2023-12-19", 0.6831], ["2023-12-19", 0.6453], ["2023-12-20", 0.6482], ["2023-12-20", 0.6583], ["2023-12-20", 0.6156], 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0.6613], ["2024-01-11", 0.6629], ["2024-01-11", 0.671], ["2024-01-11", 0.6788], ["2024-01-11", 0.6803], ["2024-01-11", 0.6872], ["2024-01-11", 0.6975], ["2024-01-11", 0.7038], ["2024-01-11", 0.7256], ["2024-01-11", 0.7281], ["2024-01-11", 0.7297], ["2024-01-11", 0.7306], ["2024-01-11", 0.7341], ["2024-01-12", 0.7397], ["2024-01-12", 0.7397]] | ["https://yemendataproject.org/", "https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/01/arabian-peninsula-shipping-in-red-sea-remains-disrupted-as-of-jan-2-following-attacks-against-vessels-update-5", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-arabia-drone-attack-oil-infrastructure-ras-tanura-dhahran-houthis-yemen-iran/", "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C21&q=houthi+drones&oq=houthi+dro#d=gs_qabs&t=1704573602923&u=%23p%3D13bE6VPT93IJ", "https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/06/archives/egyptians-reopen-canal-amid-pomp-sadat-leads-first-convoy-through.html)7", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/us/politics/gaza-houthi-yemen.html", "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/houthi-missiles-israel/", "https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1745559409323843620?t=kuuliojQoZqHD3FUwV5-6w&s=19", "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/business/red-sea-shipping-houthi.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/will-the-houthi-red-sea-attacks-destabilise-yemens-fragile-peace", "https://www.academia.edu/download/89184882/Yemen_s_Houthis_and_the_expansion_of_Iran_s_Axis_of_Resistance.pdf", "https://www.ajot.com/news/msc-announcement", "https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1743654060673093754?t=quvWiJItPHRjBHtvu7Mc3Q&s=19", "https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/politics/us-strikes-houthis-yemen/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/shipping-maersk-to-extend-red-sea-diversion-for-foreseeable-future.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/8e9eb52c-cf78-4052-8c28-2c2cef8f9372", "https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/rewards-trump-risk-for-cma-cgm-as-liner-giant-continues-to-run-red-sea-gauntlet/2-1-1579017", "https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-europe/", "https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-spy-ship-helps-houthis-direct-attacks-on-red-sea-vessels-d6f7fd40", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/3/timeline-uae-drone-missile-attacks-houthis-yemen", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/yemen", "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/business/red-sea-oil-houthis.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/689c4e66-fa37-49a6-9809-575c2d2ef44e#post-2ece5e11-66a7-40e2-9f6e-ddb3214f1547", "https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/yemen/#:~:text=More%20than%2019%2C200%20civilians%2C%20including,result%20of%20coalition%20airstrikes%20alone", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/yemen/dont-bomb-houthis?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Victory%20Is%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Only%20True%20Path%20to%20Peace&utm_content=20240111&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2955 | <p>Bhutan, which generally borders China to the north and its traditional ally India to the south, has border disputes with China for which talks have taken place for years (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65396384" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://scroll.in/article/1046685/explained-chinas-package-deal-for-bhutan-that-worries-india" target="_blank">Scroll.in</a>, <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/china-bhutan-agree-to-move-forward-on-roadmap-for-their-boundary-talks-8382300/" target="_blank">Indian Express</a>, <a href="https://thebhutanese.bt/giving-bhutan-its-due/" target="_blank">The Bhutanese</a>). The fate of the Doklam plateau is of great concern to India (<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/doklam-standoff-the-takeaways-for-india/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bhutan-changes-stance-says-china-party-to-doklam-dispute-492077" target="_blank">The Tribune</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/18/china-bhutan-border-talks-india-dispute-security/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>). Any requirements for ratification are immaterial, and objections by India would be immaterial so long as Bhutan and China agree that the agreement settles all border disputes between the two.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 January 2025, will Bhutan and China sign or announce an agreement settling all border disputes between the two countries? | 2023-07-27 | [["2023-07-28", 0.17], ["2023-07-28", 0.135], ["2023-07-29", 0.1067], ["2023-07-29", 0.08], ["2023-07-29", 0.264], ["2023-07-29", 0.23], ["2023-07-29", 0.2257], ["2023-07-29", 0.2271], ["2023-07-29", 0.1988], ["2023-07-30", 0.1933], ["2023-07-30", 0.179], ["2023-07-30", 0.1673], ["2023-07-30", 0.1533], ["2023-07-30", 0.1492], ["2023-07-31", 0.1431], ["2023-07-31", 0.14], ["2023-07-31", 0.1307], ["2023-08-01", 0.1336], ["2023-08-01", 0.126], ["2023-08-01", 0.06], ["2023-08-02", 0.051], ["2023-08-02", 0.051], ["2023-08-02", 0.051], ["2023-08-02", 0.068], ["2023-08-03", 0.062], ["2023-08-03", 0.06], ["2023-08-03", 0.06], ["2023-08-04", 0.061], ["2023-08-04", 0.06], ["2023-08-05", 0.06], ["2023-08-10", 0.05], ["2023-08-13", 0.05], ["2023-08-13", 0.05], ["2023-08-15", 0.05], ["2023-08-25", 0.05], ["2023-08-26", 0.05], ["2023-08-28", 0.05], ["2023-08-28", 0.04], ["2023-08-29", 0.03], ["2023-08-29", 0.03], ["2023-09-01", 0.03], ["2023-09-01", 0.03], ["2023-09-02", 0.03], ["2023-09-03", 0.03], ["2023-09-06", 0.025], ["2023-09-07", 0.03], ["2023-09-10", 0.03], ["2023-09-12", 0.03], ["2023-09-16", 0.03], ["2023-09-18", 0.03], ["2023-09-19", 0.1067], ["2023-09-19", 0.03], ["2023-09-23", 0.0977], ["2023-09-24", 0.0977], ["2023-09-26", 0.0954], ["2023-09-29", 0.1062], ["2023-10-01", 0.1108], ["2023-10-07", 0.1108], ["2023-10-08", 0.1108], ["2023-10-14", 0.1108], ["2023-10-16", 0.1046], ["2023-10-21", 0.1046], ["2023-10-23", 0.1038], ["2023-10-24", 0.1031], ["2023-10-25", 0.1031], ["2023-10-26", 0.1031], ["2023-11-01", 0.1031], ["2023-11-01", 0.12], ["2023-11-01", 0.1207], ["2023-11-02", 0.1179], ["2023-11-03", 0.1186], ["2023-11-03", 0.1214], ["2023-11-08", 0.1214], ["2023-11-14", 0.1257], ["2023-11-19", 0.1257], ["2023-11-20", 0.1386], ["2023-11-25", 0.1436], ["2023-11-26", 0.16], ["2023-12-01", 0.105], ["2023-12-01", 0.1043], ["2023-12-01", 0.1036], ["2023-12-03", 0.1036], ["2023-12-03", 0.1036], ["2023-12-04", 0.1114], ["2023-12-06", 0.1114], ["2023-12-13", 0.1], ["2023-12-19", 0.1], ["2023-12-19", 0.1], ["2023-12-19", 0.1], ["2023-12-26", 0.1], ["2023-12-30", 0.1021], ["2024-01-01", 0.0953], ["2024-01-01", 0.0947], ["2024-01-03", 0.0947], ["2024-01-04", 0.0993], ["2024-01-06", 0.0993], ["2024-01-06", 0.0973], ["2024-01-07", 0.1293], ["2024-01-12", 0.1293]] | ["https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202308/t20230824_11131962.html", "http://20.244.136.131/expert-speak/bhutan-china-settling-border-issues", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/bhutan-china-settling-border-issues/", "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202305/t20230526_11083984.html#:~:text=The%2012th%20Expert%20Group%20Meeting%20(EGM)%20on%20the%20China%2D,of%20Foreign%20Affairs%20of%20China", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/chinese-reactions-to-bhutan-pms-interview/", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutan%25E2%2580%2593China_border&ved=2ahUKEwj3q-PY-bGAAxVRVTABHToKBMEQFnoECC8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw2_Ztou6_NVNpTTPd8lZ7MI"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3205 | <p>On 11-12 January 2024, the ICJ heard arguments in South Africa's case against Israel for committing genocide in the Gaza Strip and requesting that Israel "immediately suspend its military operations in and against Gaza" (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/world-court-israel-genocide-gaza-south-africa-774ab3c3d57fd7bcc627602eaf47fd98" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67942983" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/case/192" target="_blank">ICJ - Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel)</a>). A provisional ruling is expected in the weeks following the hearing (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). An example of the ICJ indicating (i.e., ruling/ordering) on provisional measures took place in March 2022, when it indicated that Russia "suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine" (<a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf" target="_blank">ICJ - Ukraine v. Russian Federation</a>, see §81 & §86). Provisional measures that stop short of an outright suspension of military operations in all of the Gaza Strip will not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) indicate provisional measures for Israel to suspend its military operations in the Gaza Strip before 30 March 2024? | 2024-01-11 | [["2024-01-12", 0.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.1], ["2024-01-12", 0.3167], ["2024-01-12", 0.2375], ["2024-01-12", 0.35], ["2024-01-12", 0.325], ["2024-01-12", 0.3214], ["2024-01-12", 0.3125], ["2024-01-12", 0.3], ["2024-01-12", 0.308], ["2024-01-12", 0.3709], ["2024-01-12", 0.39], ["2024-01-12", 0.3869], ["2024-01-12", 0.3777], ["2024-01-12", 0.4121], ["2024-01-12", 0.438], ["2024-01-12", 0.3947], ["2024-01-12", 0.4206], ["2024-01-12", 0.4459], ["2024-01-12", 0.4506], ["2024-01-13", 0.4663], ["2024-01-13", 0.4663]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-11-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3075 |
<p>Pressure is mounting on Egypt, which is the only country other than Israel to share a border with the Gaza Strip, to allow refugees from Gaza into the country (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/rafah-crossing-people-aid-stuck-egypt-border-gaza/story?id=104016070" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/doubts-fears-run-high-palestinian-americans-stuck-gaza-rcna120616" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/egypt-expresses-opposition-to-allowing-palestinians-from-gaza-into-sinai/7310915.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 4 November 2023</span>: An individual's familial relations (blood or marriage) to a foreign national of a UN member state is considered "individualized circumstances.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-20 | Before 20 November 2023, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt? | 2023-10-19 | [["2023-10-20", 0.36], ["2023-10-20", 0.375], ["2023-10-20", 0.4833], ["2023-10-20", 0.4125], ["2023-10-20", 0.418], ["2023-10-20", 0.3483], ["2023-10-21", 0.32], ["2023-10-21", 0.3988], ["2023-10-21", 0.36], ["2023-10-21", 0.324], ["2023-10-21", 0.2991], ["2023-10-21", 0.2927], ["2023-10-21", 0.2936], ["2023-10-21", 0.3018], ["2023-10-21", 0.2727], ["2023-10-21", 0.25], ["2023-10-22", 0.2608], ["2023-10-22", 0.2493], ["2023-10-22", 0.2493], ["2023-10-22", 0.2744], ["2023-10-22", 0.275], ["2023-10-23", 0.2819], ["2023-10-23", 0.2894], ["2023-10-23", 0.2782], ["2023-10-23", 0.2794], ["2023-10-23", 0.2726], ["2023-10-23", 0.2526], ["2023-10-23", 0.225], ["2023-10-23", 0.2395], ["2023-10-23", 0.26], ["2023-10-23", 0.242], ["2023-10-23", 0.2448], ["2023-10-23", 0.2423], ["2023-10-24", 0.2457], ["2023-10-24", 0.2417], ["2023-10-24", 0.236], ["2023-10-24", 0.2229], ["2023-10-24", 0.2196], ["2023-10-24", 0.2457], ["2023-10-24", 0.2405], ["2023-10-24", 0.2568], ["2023-10-24", 0.2536], ["2023-10-24", 0.2555], ["2023-10-25", 0.269], ["2023-10-25", 0.2786], ["2023-10-25", 0.2795], ["2023-10-25", 0.2643], ["2023-10-25", 0.2568], ["2023-10-25", 0.2561], ["2023-10-25", 0.2558], ["2023-10-25", 0.2524], ["2023-10-26", 0.2431], ["2023-10-26", 0.2384], ["2023-10-26", 0.2384], ["2023-10-26", 0.2331], ["2023-10-27", 0.2283], ["2023-10-27", 0.218], ["2023-10-27", 0.2181], ["2023-10-27", 0.2163], ["2023-10-28", 0.185], ["2023-10-28", 0.1806], ["2023-10-28", 0.2119], ["2023-10-29", 0.2463], ["2023-10-30", 0.2525], ["2023-10-30", 0.2556], ["2023-10-30", 0.2538], ["2023-10-31", 0.2388], ["2023-10-31", 0.2347], ["2023-10-31", 0.2494], ["2023-10-31", 0.2582], ["2023-10-31", 0.2894], ["2023-11-01", 0.2953], ["2023-11-01", 0.2853], ["2023-11-01", 0.2876], ["2023-11-01", 0.2876], ["2023-11-01", 0.2789], ["2023-11-01", 0.2733], ["2023-11-01", 0.2694], ["2023-11-01", 0.31], ["2023-11-01", 0.3139], ["2023-11-01", 0.3339], ["2023-11-01", 0.355], ["2023-11-01", 0.3661], ["2023-11-01", 0.3653], ["2023-11-02", 0.3668], ["2023-11-02", 0.3637], ["2023-11-02", 0.34], ["2023-11-02", 0.2979], ["2023-11-03", 0.288], ["2023-11-03", 0.298], ["2023-11-03", 0.2838], ["2023-11-03", 0.2525], ["2023-11-03", 0.251], ["2023-11-04", 0.251], ["2023-11-04", 0.241], ["2023-11-04", 0.25], ["2023-11-04", 0.248], ["2023-11-05", 0.238], ["2023-11-05", 0.2305], ["2023-11-05", 0.239], ["2023-11-05", 0.2445], ["2023-11-05", 0.2329], ["2023-11-06", 0.2295], ["2023-11-06", 0.235], ["2023-11-06", 0.2014], ["2023-11-06", 0.1982], ["2023-11-06", 0.195], ["2023-11-07", 0.1968], ["2023-11-07", 0.1836], ["2023-11-07", 0.1791], ["2023-11-08", 0.1755], ["2023-11-08", 0.1736], ["2023-11-08", 0.1741], ["2023-11-08", 0.1782], ["2023-11-09", 0.1768], ["2023-11-10", 0.1791], ["2023-11-10", 0.175], ["2023-11-10", 0.1755], ["2023-11-10", 0.1755], ["2023-11-10", 0.175], ["2023-11-10", 0.1527], ["2023-11-10", 0.1455], ["2023-11-10", 0.1455], ["2023-11-11", 0.1409], ["2023-11-11", 0.1391], ["2023-11-11", 0.1377], ["2023-11-11", 0.1514], ["2023-11-11", 0.1541], ["2023-11-11", 0.1523], ["2023-11-12", 0.1527], ["2023-11-12", 0.1465], ["2023-11-12", 0.177], ["2023-11-12", 0.1791], ["2023-11-13", 0.1665], ["2023-11-13", 0.167], ["2023-11-13", 0.167], ["2023-11-14", 0.1596], ["2023-11-14", 0.1452], ["2023-11-14", 0.1448], ["2023-11-14", 0.1404], ["2023-11-14", 0.1392], ["2023-11-15", 0.1388], ["2023-11-15", 0.1363], ["2023-11-15", 0.135], ["2023-11-15", 0.1258], ["2023-11-15", 0.1204], ["2023-11-16", 0.12], ["2023-11-16", 0.1179], ["2023-11-16", 0.1144], ["2023-11-16", 0.1148], ["2023-11-16", 0.1144], ["2023-11-16", 0.1104], ["2023-11-16", 0.1088], ["2023-11-17", 0.112], ["2023-11-17", 0.1116], ["2023-11-17", 0.1073], ["2023-11-17", 0.1069], ["2023-11-17", 0.1088], ["2023-11-17", 0.1088], ["2023-11-17", 0.1088], ["2023-11-17", 0.1108], ["2023-11-17", 0.1], ["2023-11-17", 0.1035], ["2023-11-17", 0.1012], ["2023-11-17", 0.1008], ["2023-11-17", 0.0627], ["2023-11-17", 0.0619], ["2023-11-18", 0.0608], ["2023-11-18", 0.0531], ["2023-11-18", 0.0523], ["2023-11-18", 0.0508], ["2023-11-18", 0.05], ["2023-11-18", 0.0442], ["2023-11-18", 0.0435], ["2023-11-18", 0.05], ["2023-11-18", 0.0492], ["2023-11-18", 0.0462], ["2023-11-18", 0.0454], ["2023-11-18", 0.0458], ["2023-11-19", 0.0552], ["2023-11-19", 0.0548], ["2023-11-19", 0.0548], ["2023-11-19", 0.0544], ["2023-11-19", 0.0537], ["2023-11-19", 0.0522], ["2023-11-20", 0.0522]] | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67133675", "https://abc7chicago.com/egypt-jordan-refugees-palestinians/13935609/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/egypt-rejects-any-displacement-palestinians-into-sinai-says-sisi-2023-10-18/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/palestine-israel/2023/11/12/rafah-crossing-reopens-for-gazans-entering-egypt/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/15/rafah-border-crossing-could-egypt-open-it-to-fleeing-palestinians", "https://www.cissong.org/comunicato-stampa-ciss-1-novembre-2023-aperto-valico-di-rafah-tra-coloro-che-sono-usciti-il-capo-missione-ciss-jacopo-intini-e-la-responsabile-di-area-ciss-amal-khayal/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3124 | <p>Deaths outnumbered births in China for the first time on record in 2022, the consequence of a long-expected demographic shift in the country that the government is working to address (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64300190" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/china-population-how-slower-growth-could-hit-the-global-economy.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202301/t20230117_1892094.html" target="_blank">National Statistics Bureau of China</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2023, expected in early 2024. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:</p><p>
</p><div>
<img src="https://www.gjopen.com/uploaded_files/54" style="width:583px;"><br>
</div><div><br></div><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2023 be negative? | 2023-11-17 | [["2023-11-17", 1.0], ["2023-11-17", 0.585], ["2023-11-17", 0.65], ["2023-11-17", 0.7325], ["2023-11-17", 0.686], ["2023-11-17", 0.7367], ["2023-11-17", 0.76], ["2023-11-17", 0.7463], ["2023-11-17", 0.7244], ["2023-11-18", 0.752], ["2023-11-18", 0.7655], ["2023-11-18", 0.785], ["2023-11-18", 0.7869], ["2023-11-18", 0.8021], ["2023-11-18", 0.7487], ["2023-11-18", 0.7638], ["2023-11-18", 0.72], ["2023-11-18", 0.7078], ["2023-11-18", 0.7211], ["2023-11-18", 0.7115], ["2023-11-18", 0.7062], ["2023-11-18", 0.7062], ["2023-11-18", 0.7173], ["2023-11-18", 0.7183], ["2023-11-18", 0.7183], ["2023-11-18", 0.7163], ["2023-11-18", 0.7276], ["2023-11-19", 0.7265], ["2023-11-19", 0.72], ["2023-11-19", 0.7154], ["2023-11-19", 0.7217], ["2023-11-19", 0.721], ["2023-11-19", 0.7284], ["2023-11-19", 0.7253], ["2023-11-19", 0.7294], ["2023-11-19", 0.7321], ["2023-11-19", 0.7397], ["2023-11-19", 0.7397], ["2023-11-19", 0.7469], ["2023-11-19", 0.7475], ["2023-11-20", 0.7543], ["2023-11-20", 0.7582], ["2023-11-20", 0.7528], ["2023-11-20", 0.7583], ["2023-11-20", 0.7529], ["2023-11-20", 0.7588], ["2023-11-20", 0.7598], ["2023-11-20", 0.7616], ["2023-11-20", 0.7456], ["2023-11-20", 0.7521], ["2023-11-21", 0.7585], ["2023-11-21", 0.7464], ["2023-11-21", 0.7806], ["2023-11-21", 0.7869], ["2023-11-21", 0.7869], ["2023-11-21", 0.7963], ["2023-11-21", 0.8054], ["2023-11-21", 0.8108], ["2023-11-21", 0.8152], ["2023-11-21", 0.8176], ["2023-11-21", 0.8206], ["2023-11-22", 0.839], ["2023-11-22", 0.8409], ["2023-11-22", 0.8334], ["2023-11-22", 0.8323], ["2023-11-22", 0.8374], ["2023-11-22", 0.8432], ["2023-11-23", 0.8315], ["2023-11-23", 0.8137], ["2023-11-23", 0.7846], ["2023-11-23", 0.7852], ["2023-11-23", 0.7823], ["2023-11-23", 0.7894], ["2023-11-23", 0.7957], ["2023-11-23", 0.7933], ["2023-11-23", 0.8189], ["2023-11-23", 0.8254], ["2023-11-23", 0.8228], ["2023-11-23", 0.8245], ["2023-11-24", 0.8279], ["2023-11-24", 0.835], ["2023-11-24", 0.8064], ["2023-11-24", 0.81], ["2023-11-24", 0.8064], ["2023-11-24", 0.801], ["2023-11-24", 0.8117], ["2023-11-24", 0.8131], ["2023-11-25", 0.8131], ["2023-11-25", 0.796], ["2023-11-25", 0.802], ["2023-11-25", 0.7953], ["2023-11-25", 0.7923], ["2023-11-25", 0.7906], ["2023-11-25", 0.7794], ["2023-11-25", 0.7863], ["2023-11-25", 0.7853], ["2023-11-25", 0.7759], ["2023-11-26", 0.7709], ["2023-11-26", 0.7715], ["2023-11-26", 0.7821], ["2023-11-26", 0.7852], ["2023-11-26", 0.7852], ["2023-11-26", 0.7803], ["2023-11-26", 0.7712], ["2023-11-26", 0.7738], ["2023-11-26", 0.7812], ["2023-11-26", 0.7817], ["2023-11-27", 0.7823], ["2023-11-27", 0.7823], ["2023-11-27", 0.7823], ["2023-11-27", 0.785], ["2023-11-27", 0.7858], ["2023-11-27", 0.7803], ["2023-11-27", 0.7611], ["2023-11-27", 0.7641], ["2023-11-27", 0.7654], ["2023-11-27", 0.7716], ["2023-11-27", 0.7676], ["2023-11-27", 0.7913], ["2023-11-27", 0.7913], ["2023-11-28", 0.7908], ["2023-11-28", 0.7711], ["2023-11-28", 0.7684], ["2023-11-29", 0.7656], ["2023-11-30", 0.7664], ["2023-12-01", 0.7664], ["2023-12-02", 0.7672], ["2023-12-04", 0.7697], ["2023-12-05", 0.7718], ["2023-12-06", 0.7698], ["2023-12-07", 0.7698], ["2023-12-07", 0.767], ["2023-12-07", 0.767], ["2023-12-07", 0.7702], ["2023-12-07", 0.7702], ["2023-12-07", 0.7715], ["2023-12-08", 0.7702], ["2023-12-08", 0.7757], ["2023-12-11", 0.7948], ["2023-12-12", 0.7983], ["2023-12-12", 0.7948], ["2023-12-13", 0.7769], ["2023-12-14", 0.7769], ["2023-12-14", 0.7769], ["2023-12-14", 0.7705], ["2023-12-15", 0.7798], ["2023-12-16", 0.7811], ["2023-12-16", 0.7802], ["2023-12-17", 0.7802], ["2023-12-17", 0.7802], ["2023-12-17", 0.7752], ["2023-12-18", 0.7752], ["2023-12-20", 0.7764], ["2023-12-20", 0.7813], ["2023-12-21", 0.788], ["2023-12-21", 0.788], ["2023-12-21", 0.7924], ["2023-12-23", 0.7948], ["2023-12-23", 0.7948], ["2023-12-23", 0.7961], ["2023-12-24", 0.7917], ["2023-12-25", 0.7917], ["2023-12-26", 0.788], ["2023-12-26", 0.7915], ["2023-12-26", 0.7777], ["2023-12-26", 0.7926], ["2023-12-26", 0.7967], ["2023-12-26", 0.8027], ["2023-12-26", 0.8048], ["2023-12-26", 0.8057], ["2023-12-26", 0.7931], ["2023-12-26", 0.7942], ["2023-12-27", 0.7912], ["2023-12-27", 0.7952], ["2023-12-28", 0.7924], ["2023-12-28", 0.7924], ["2023-12-28", 0.7953], ["2023-12-29", 0.7953], ["2023-12-29", 0.8014], ["2023-12-29", 0.8014], ["2023-12-30", 0.8042], ["2023-12-30", 0.8071], ["2023-12-31", 0.8088], ["2023-12-31", 0.8112], ["2024-01-01", 0.8112]] | ["https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-birth-rates-plunge-12272023160425.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-is-seeking-boost-its-falling-birth-rate-2023-01-17/", "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1301673.shtml#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,couples%20for%20the%20entire%20year", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/closure-of-maternity-wards-fuels-chinese-debate-over-population-decline", "https://www.timesnownews.com/world/reward-babysitting-by-grandparents-marriage-culture-china-wants-more-births-article-106234386", "https://www.newsweek.com/china-birth-rate-declines-1846265", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy", "https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/", "https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3241518/china-population-marriages-set-end-9-year-run-declines-2023-demographic-issues-remain", "https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3230660/china-population-2023-births-could-plunge-quarter-record-low-set-last-year-academic-warns", "https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/baby-blues-to-continue-as-hong-kong-experts-predict-cash-bonuses-for-births-will-not-boost-number-of-children/ar-AA1kDg1N", "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37615984/#:~:text=An%20estimated%201.87%20million%20%2895,of%20the%20zero%20COVID%20policy", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/plummeting-birth-rate-spells-trouble-for-china/ar-AA1kqz99", "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/summaries", "https://china.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Ending%20Unintended%20Pregnancies%20among%20Chinese%20Unmarried%20Youth%20by%202030-Final.pdf", "http://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/sjjd2020/202301/t20230118_1892285.html", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-xi-vs-she-chinas-government-wants-women-to-return-to-domesticity-but/", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1302134.shtml", "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/birth-death-china-great-leap-forward-famine"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3210 | <p>On 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump was disqualified from becoming president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf" target="_blank">Colorado Supreme Court - Anderson v. Griswold</a>). The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal and has scheduled oral arguments for 8 February 2024 (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/05/trump-colorado-supreme-court-ballot-appeal-14th-amendment" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-anderson/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Trump v. Anderson, will the Supreme Court rule that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot? | 2024-01-11 | [["2024-01-12", 0.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.5], ["2024-01-12", 0.4833], ["2024-01-12", 0.6125], ["2024-01-12", 0.69], ["2024-01-12", 0.7333], ["2024-01-12", 0.7314], ["2024-01-12", 0.64], ["2024-01-12", 0.6689], ["2024-01-12", 0.652], ["2024-01-12", 0.67], ["2024-01-12", 0.6225], ["2024-01-12", 0.6492], ["2024-01-12", 0.66], ["2024-01-13", 0.6827], ["2024-01-13", 0.6827]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2941 |
<p>Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/journalist-evan-gershkovich-100-days-detained-russia/story?id=100800017" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (<a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4090458-evan-gershkovich-parents-say-biden-promised-to-do-whatever-it-takes-to-bring-son-home/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 July 2023</span>: Gershkovich must leave Russia alive to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia? | 2023-07-14 | [["2023-07-14", 0.18], ["2023-07-14", 0.13], ["2023-07-14", 0.09], ["2023-07-14", 0.0967], ["2023-07-14", 0.26], ["2023-07-14", 0.302], ["2023-07-14", 0.4183], ["2023-07-15", 0.4429], ["2023-07-15", 0.4063], ["2023-07-15", 0.3778], ["2023-07-15", 0.382], ["2023-07-15", 0.3973], ["2023-07-15", 0.41], ["2023-07-15", 0.4258], ["2023-07-15", 0.4267], ["2023-07-15", 0.4258], ["2023-07-15", 0.4392], ["2023-07-16", 0.4469], ["2023-07-16", 0.4457], ["2023-07-16", 0.4471], ["2023-07-16", 0.424], ["2023-07-16", 0.4256], ["2023-07-16", 0.4256], ["2023-07-16", 0.425], ["2023-07-17", 0.4176], ["2023-07-17", 0.4188], ["2023-07-17", 0.4039], 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"https://www.wsj.com/world/white-house-warns-freeing-evan-gershkovich-potentially-tough-c273a00f", "https://www.thenation.com/article/world/us-russia-prisoner-exchange/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-denies-u-s-extradition-request-for-alleged-russian-spy-e1d1cd77?st=uv65kr2lt2liuk9&reflink=article_imessage_share", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/politics/trevor-reed-injured-ukraine/index.html", "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-journalist-evan-gershkovich-be", "https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/how-russias-justice-system-stalls-movement-in-evan-gershkovich-case-d98a3b88?mod=hp_lead_pos10", "https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-upholds-detention-of-us-reporter-evan-gershkovich/7304319.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ambassador-meets-with-detained-wall-street-journal-reporter-257240ff?mod=hp_lead_pos3", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Daniloff", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-extends-pre-trial-detention-wsj-reporter-gershkovich-2023-11-28/", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-journalist-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-biden-wsj-update/32502406.html", "https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-says-russia-rejected-proposal-release-paul-whelan-evan-gershkovich", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/iran-us-prisoner-swap.html", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-may-consider-prisoner-swap-after-trial-of-detained-u-s-reporter", "https://www.reuters.com/world/radio-free-europe-says-russia-detains-us-journalist-with-dual-citizenship-2023-10-19/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ambassador-russia-meets-with-detained-journalist-gershkovich-wsj-2023-08-14/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-american-prisoners-house-arrest/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brittney_Griner"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3031 | <p>As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-zelenskyy-anticorruption-efforts-1.6972301" target="_blank">CBC</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66702893" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/19/corruption-kyiv-takes-on-an-old-foe-wartime" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (<a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022" target="_blank">Transparency International</a>). The scale runs from zero to 100, with 100 being the least corrupt. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using CPI data for Ukraine once published for 2023, expected in early 2024. In 2022, Ukraine had a score of 33, up by one point from 2021 (<a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022/index/ukr" target="_blank">Transparency International - Ukraine</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Ukraine's Corruption Perceptions Index score rise in 2023 as compared to 2022, according to Transparency International? | 2023-09-22 | [["2023-09-22", 1.0], ["2023-09-22", 0.695], ["2023-09-22", 0.73], ["2023-09-22", 0.7675], ["2023-09-22", 0.724], ["2023-09-22", 0.77], ["2023-09-22", 0.7771], ["2023-09-23", 0.7675], ["2023-09-23", 0.7522], ["2023-09-23", 0.7533], 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["2023-12-03", 0.7293], ["2023-12-04", 0.7176], ["2023-12-05", 0.7193], ["2023-12-06", 0.69], ["2023-12-06", 0.7038], ["2023-12-07", 0.7038], ["2023-12-11", 0.7038], ["2023-12-12", 0.7031], ["2023-12-12", 0.7031], ["2023-12-13", 0.7031], ["2023-12-14", 0.7031], ["2023-12-15", 0.7031], ["2023-12-16", 0.7031], ["2023-12-19", 0.7066], ["2023-12-21", 0.708], ["2023-12-21", 0.7107], ["2023-12-23", 0.7107], ["2023-12-24", 0.7077], ["2023-12-24", 0.708], ["2023-12-24", 0.7067], ["2023-12-25", 0.7003], ["2023-12-25", 0.7023], ["2023-12-26", 0.7013], ["2023-12-26", 0.7023], ["2023-12-26", 0.7123], ["2023-12-26", 0.6957], ["2023-12-27", 0.7055], ["2023-12-27", 0.7055], ["2023-12-27", 0.7187], ["2023-12-28", 0.7034], ["2023-12-29", 0.7034], ["2023-12-30", 0.7144], ["2023-12-31", 0.7144], ["2024-01-01", 0.7125], ["2024-01-01", 0.7125]] | ["https://baselgovernance.org/sites/default/files/2023-06/230620-URC2023.pdf", "https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/?pdf=CDL-AD(2023)022-e", "https://babel.ua/en/news/95012-the-venice-commission-made-a-conclusion-regarding-the-draft-law-on-the-selection-of-judges-to-the-ksu-there-are-significant-improvements-but-there-is-still-work-to-be-done", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/ukraine-corruption-zelensky-journalist/", "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/", "https://ti-ukraine.org/en/news/small-scale-privatization-reform-in-ukraine-turns-5/", "https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=denys+davydov", "https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/global", "https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-dashboard/UKR", "https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/", "https://ti-ukraine.org/en/news/the-cabinet-appoints-olena-duma-head-of-arma-ti-ukraine-considers-it-a-mistake/", "https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-05/NIT_2023_Digital.pdf", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdoO1YPLz_A", "https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/cpi-2022-corruption-watch-list-united-kingdom-sri-lanka-georgia-ukraine", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-zelenskyy-fires-military-conscription-officials-corruption/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/corruption-index", "https://smarttender.biz/en/news/view/changes-to-resolution-no-1178-how-it-will-affect-the-work-of-customers-and-suppliers/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/10/1204800618/how-much-progress-has-ukraine-s-government-made-against-corruption", "https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/static/download/2022_eng_final.pdf", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/volodymyr-zelensky-fires-seven-ministers-in-ukraine-defense-ministry-purge/ar-AA1gTccI", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/zelensky-ukraine-defense-shakeup.html", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/4296123-ukraine-russia-war-volodymyr-zelensky-not-the-right-time-elections/", "https://freedomhouse.org/country/ukraine/nations-transit/2023", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/02/biden-admin-ukraine-strategy-corruption-00119237", "https://sceeus.se/en/publications/anti-corruption-reform-in-ukraine-after-russias-full-scale-invasion/#_ftn12"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3212 | <p>China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005, and the parties are reportedly pushing forward toward a conclusion (<a href="https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202310/26/content_WS6539fb2fc6d0868f4e8e0b03.html" target="_blank">Chinese State Council</a>, <a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/MediaCenter/NewsCooperation/News/Pages/news2023-10-21-1.aspx" target="_blank">GCC</a>, <a href="https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/bahrain-industry-and-commerce-minister-is-optimistic-about-china-gcc-free-trade-agreement" target="_blank">Yicai Global</a>, <a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx" target="_blank">GCC- Member States</a>). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-28/gcc-south-korea-sign-free-trade-deal-in-boost-to-gulf-asia-economic-ties" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 January 2025, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed? | 2024-01-12 | [["2024-01-12", 0.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.15], ["2024-01-12", 0.3], ["2024-01-12", 0.225], ["2024-01-12", 0.214], ["2024-01-13", 0.1783], ["2024-01-13", 0.1783]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-10-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3053 |
<p>After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has announced that it is sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-american-carrier-strike-force-mediterranean-db05d535a9ebb931f684f758c9b6f628" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3551716/statement-from-secretary-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-us-force-posture-changes-in-the/" target="_blank">Defense.gov</a>). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, and a strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 October 2023</span>: Any acknowledgment of a strike that would satisfy all of the elements of the question and conditions in the question description, including the discharge or detonation of a weapon, would count, irrespective of whether members of the US armed forces were "on the ground." If the US publicly acknowledges that it sent forces into a pertinent area without clearly stating whether weapons were discharged or detonated by US forces, credible open source reporting would be used to determine whether the US did indeed discharge or detonate a weapon.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 20 October 2023</span>: US forces firing weapons defensively against drones or missiles that are in flight (i.e., to prevent them from reaching their target) in and of itself would not count, irrespective of the putative target of the drones or missiles.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-10-30 | Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before 30 October 2023? | 2023-10-08 | [["2023-10-09", 0.01], ["2023-10-09", 0.015], ["2023-10-09", 0.0333], ["2023-10-09", 0.0275], ["2023-10-09", 0.024], ["2023-10-09", 0.02], ["2023-10-09", 0.0386], ["2023-10-09", 0.035], ["2023-10-09", 0.0311], ["2023-10-09", 0.073], ["2023-10-09", 0.0664], ["2023-10-09", 0.0658], ["2023-10-09", 0.0608], ["2023-10-09", 0.1264], ["2023-10-09", 0.1347], ["2023-10-09", 0.128], ["2023-10-09", 0.1231], ["2023-10-09", 0.1188], ["2023-10-09", 0.1133], ["2023-10-09", 0.1122], ["2023-10-09", 0.1221], ["2023-10-09", 0.116], ["2023-10-09", 0.1165], ["2023-10-09", 0.1133], ["2023-10-09", 0.1127], ["2023-10-09", 0.1078], ["2023-10-09", 0.1046], ["2023-10-09", 0.1076], ["2023-10-09", 0.1036], ["2023-10-09", 0.1188], ["2023-10-09", 0.1144], ["2023-10-10", 0.1107], ["2023-10-10", 0.1076], ["2023-10-10", 0.1053], ["2023-10-10", 0.1068], ["2023-10-10", 0.1059], ["2023-10-10", 0.103], ["2023-10-10", 0.1], ["2023-10-10", 0.1243], ["2023-10-10", 0.0986], ["2023-10-10", 0.0958], ["2023-10-10", 0.0949], ["2023-10-10", 0.0941], ["2023-10-10", 0.0941], ["2023-10-10", 0.0962], ["2023-10-10", 0.095], ["2023-10-10", 0.095], ["2023-10-10", 0.1028], ["2023-10-10", 0.1028], ["2023-10-10", 0.1025], ["2023-10-10", 0.1], ["2023-10-10", 0.0983], ["2023-10-10", 0.1007], ["2023-10-10", 0.1036], ["2023-10-10", 0.1086], ["2023-10-10", 0.1084], ["2023-10-10", 0.106], ["2023-10-10", 0.1071], ["2023-10-10", 0.1054], ["2023-10-10", 0.105], ["2023-10-10", 0.1039], ["2023-10-10", 0.1033], ["2023-10-11", 0.1017], ["2023-10-11", 0.0996], ["2023-10-11", 0.099], ["2023-10-11", 0.1146], ["2023-10-11", 0.0996], ["2023-10-11", 0.0996], ["2023-10-11", 0.0986], ["2023-10-11", 0.101], ["2023-10-11", 0.0996], ["2023-10-11", 0.1016], ["2023-10-11", 0.0978], ["2023-10-11", 0.096], ["2023-10-11", 0.0942], ["2023-10-12", 0.095], ["2023-10-12", 0.1113], ["2023-10-12", 0.1133], ["2023-10-12", 0.1218], ["2023-10-12", 0.1149], ["2023-10-12", 0.1141], ["2023-10-12", 0.1138], ["2023-10-12", 0.1097], ["2023-10-12", 0.1121], ["2023-10-12", 0.1113], ["2023-10-12", 0.1138], ["2023-10-12", 0.1144], ["2023-10-13", 0.113], ["2023-10-13", 0.1169], ["2023-10-13", 0.1198], ["2023-10-13", 0.1197], ["2023-10-13", 0.1255], ["2023-10-13", 0.1439], ["2023-10-13", 0.1442], ["2023-10-13", 0.1474], ["2023-10-13", 0.1397], ["2023-10-13", 0.1425], ["2023-10-13", 0.1425], ["2023-10-13", 0.1513], ["2023-10-13", 0.151], ["2023-10-13", 0.1454], ["2023-10-13", 0.1567], ["2023-10-13", 0.1529], ["2023-10-13", 0.1544], ["2023-10-14", 0.1559], ["2023-10-14", 0.1585], ["2023-10-14", 0.1574], ["2023-10-14", 0.1578], ["2023-10-14", 0.1574], ["2023-10-14", 0.1554], ["2023-10-14", 0.1532], ["2023-10-14", 0.1529], ["2023-10-14", 0.1514], ["2023-10-15", 0.1514], ["2023-10-15", 0.1479], ["2023-10-15", 0.1493], ["2023-10-15", 0.1525], ["2023-10-15", 0.1514], ["2023-10-15", 0.1772], ["2023-10-15", 0.1497], ["2023-10-15", 0.1548], ["2023-10-15", 0.1559], ["2023-10-15", 0.1579], ["2023-10-15", 0.1545], ["2023-10-15", 0.1552], ["2023-10-15", 0.1573], ["2023-10-15", 0.1563], ["2023-10-16", 0.1563], ["2023-10-16", 0.1583], ["2023-10-16", 0.128], ["2023-10-16", 0.1283], ["2023-10-16", 0.1273], ["2023-10-16", 0.1235], ["2023-10-16", 0.1235], ["2023-10-16", 0.1177], ["2023-10-16", 0.1152], ["2023-10-16", 0.1094], ["2023-10-16", 0.1106], ["2023-10-16", 0.1094], ["2023-10-17", 0.1119], ["2023-10-17", 0.1126], ["2023-10-17", 0.1077], ["2023-10-17", 0.1048], ["2023-10-17", 0.1094], ["2023-10-17", 0.1087], ["2023-10-17", 0.1063], ["2023-10-17", 0.1072], ["2023-10-17", 0.1069], ["2023-10-17", 0.1053], ["2023-10-17", 0.1056], ["2023-10-17", 0.1013], ["2023-10-17", 0.1013], ["2023-10-17", 0.1025], ["2023-10-17", 0.1024], ["2023-10-17", 0.1188], ["2023-10-17", 0.1294], ["2023-10-17", 0.1197], ["2023-10-17", 0.1226], ["2023-10-17", 0.1261], ["2023-10-17", 0.1265], ["2023-10-17", 0.1253], ["2023-10-17", 0.1256], ["2023-10-17", 0.1265], ["2023-10-18", 0.1368], ["2023-10-18", 0.1374], ["2023-10-18", 0.1362], ["2023-10-18", 0.1347], ["2023-10-18", 0.1326], ["2023-10-18", 0.1326], ["2023-10-18", 0.134], ["2023-10-18", 0.1326], ["2023-10-18", 0.1297], ["2023-10-18", 0.1291], ["2023-10-19", 0.1306], ["2023-10-19", 0.1297], ["2023-10-19", 0.1291], ["2023-10-19", 0.1264], ["2023-10-19", 0.1256], ["2023-10-19", 0.1264], ["2023-10-19", 0.1264], ["2023-10-19", 0.1244], ["2023-10-19", 0.125], ["2023-10-19", 0.1258], ["2023-10-20", 0.1217], ["2023-10-20", 0.1161], ["2023-10-20", 0.1169], ["2023-10-20", 0.1161], ["2023-10-20", 0.1161], ["2023-10-20", 0.1156], ["2023-10-20", 0.1133], ["2023-10-20", 0.1153], ["2023-10-20", 0.1144], ["2023-10-21", 0.1144], ["2023-10-21", 0.1133], ["2023-10-21", 0.1141], ["2023-10-21", 0.1132], ["2023-10-22", 0.1092], ["2023-10-22", 0.1116], ["2023-10-22", 0.1119], ["2023-10-22", 0.1116], ["2023-10-22", 0.1103], ["2023-10-22", 0.1122], ["2023-10-22", 0.1116], ["2023-10-23", 0.1114], ["2023-10-23", 0.1084], ["2023-10-23", 0.1082], ["2023-10-23", 0.1079], ["2023-10-23", 0.1079], ["2023-10-23", 0.1082], ["2023-10-23", 0.1063], ["2023-10-23", 0.1042], ["2023-10-23", 0.1037], ["2023-10-23", 0.1032], ["2023-10-23", 0.1021], ["2023-10-23", 0.1021], ["2023-10-23", 0.1016], ["2023-10-24", 0.0997], ["2023-10-24", 0.0984], ["2023-10-24", 0.0959], ["2023-10-24", 0.0921], ["2023-10-24", 0.0921], ["2023-10-24", 0.0849], ["2023-10-24", 0.0831], ["2023-10-24", 0.0818], ["2023-10-24", 0.081], ["2023-10-24", 0.0808], ["2023-10-24", 0.0779], ["2023-10-25", 0.0767], ["2023-10-25", 0.0767], ["2023-10-25", 0.1], ["2023-10-25", 0.1026], ["2023-10-25", 0.1015], ["2023-10-25", 0.1015], ["2023-10-25", 0.101], ["2023-10-25", 0.0855], ["2023-10-25", 0.0848], ["2023-10-26", 0.0818], ["2023-10-26", 0.0805], ["2023-10-26", 0.0783], ["2023-10-26", 0.0783], ["2023-10-26", 0.0783], ["2023-10-26", 0.0783], ["2023-10-26", 0.0783], ["2023-10-26", 0.077], ["2023-10-26", 0.077], ["2023-10-26", 0.0763], ["2023-10-26", 0.0733], ["2023-10-26", 0.0725], ["2023-10-26", 0.0715], ["2023-10-26", 0.0713], ["2023-10-26", 0.0695], ["2023-10-26", 0.0646], ["2023-10-26", 0.0644], ["2023-10-26", 0.059], ["2023-10-27", 0.0588], ["2023-10-27", 0.06], ["2023-10-27", 0.0617], ["2023-10-27", 0.0617], ["2023-10-27", 0.0583], ["2023-10-27", 0.0578], ["2023-10-27", 0.0573], ["2023-10-27", 0.0585], ["2023-10-27", 0.0561], ["2023-10-27", 0.0559], ["2023-10-27", 0.0561], ["2023-10-27", 0.0559], ["2023-10-27", 0.0559], ["2023-10-28", 0.0549], ["2023-10-28", 0.0537], ["2023-10-28", 0.0527], ["2023-10-28", 0.0524], ["2023-10-28", 0.0515], ["2023-10-28", 0.0512], ["2023-10-28", 0.0512], ["2023-10-28", 0.051], ["2023-10-28", 0.0488], ["2023-10-28", 0.049], ["2023-10-28", 0.049], ["2023-10-28", 0.0471], ["2023-10-28", 0.0464], ["2023-10-28", 0.0464], ["2023-10-28", 0.0488], ["2023-10-28", 0.0479], ["2023-10-28", 0.0474], ["2023-10-29", 0.055], ["2023-10-29", 0.0552], ["2023-10-29", 0.055], ["2023-10-29", 0.055], ["2023-10-29", 0.0502], ["2023-10-29", 0.05], ["2023-10-29", 0.0493], ["2023-10-29", 0.0481], ["2023-10-29", 0.0467], ["2023-10-29", 0.0465], ["2023-10-29", 0.0465], ["2023-10-29", 0.0456], ["2023-10-29", 0.0451], ["2023-10-29", 0.0451], ["2023-10-29", 0.0449], ["2023-10-29", 0.0442], ["2023-10-29", 0.0419], ["2023-10-29", 0.0409], ["2023-10-29", 0.0407], ["2023-10-29", 0.0398], ["2023-10-29", 0.0393], ["2023-10-29", 0.0393], ["2023-10-29", 0.0391], ["2023-10-29", 0.0389], ["2023-10-30", 0.04], ["2023-10-30", 0.0409], ["2023-10-30", 0.0511], ["2023-10-30", 0.0513], ["2023-10-30", 0.0513]] | ["https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-strikes-syrian-militias-as-israel-makes-fresh-incursion-into-gaza-6ac97a1f", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/middleeast/hezbollah-explainer-intl/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/us-navy-intercept-missiles-yemen/index.html", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-28-2023", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna121580", "https://www.ft.com/content/c494c04f-705d-4100-9a0d-574826e5fd67", "https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3570798/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-statement-on-us-military-strikes-in-ea/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206832708/biden-israel-trip-mideast-peace", "https://www.state.gov/about-us-special-presidential-envoy-for-hostage-affairs/#:~:text=14078%20of%20July%2019%2C%202022,terrorist%20organizations%2C%20criminal%20groups%2C%20and", "https://apnews.com/article/syria-airstrikes-iran-revolutionary-guard-af3c7a0f069b8c8b08f6feaa0e165d6a", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/broken-lebanon-cannot-afford-war-hezbollah-knows-it-2023-10-26/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-strikes-iranian-backed-militias-eastern-syria-retaliation-attacks-on-u-s-troops/", "https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033#:~:text=The%20total%20toll%20is%207%2C028,foreign%20journalists%20and%20humanitarian%20workers", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/28/israel-hamas-war-live-israeli-bombings-intensify-as-gaza-goes-dark", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770137", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-asking-israel-hard-questions-gaza-military-assault-white-house-2023-10-29/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-more-hostages-released/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OagYlYna75Y", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/21/world/middleeast/us-hostages-release-israel-hamas-qatar-raanan.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/us/politics/us-hostages-israel-gaza.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/politics/us-marines-pentagon-israel/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/us/politics/biden-israel-hezbollah-war.html", "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/17/israel-news-us-military-hezbollah-attacks", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/20/1207526804/mother-daughter-american-hostages-released-israel-hamas", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769795"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3045 |
<p>FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/10/03/1202965753/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-trial-crypto" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/04/ftx-sbf-trial-updates-news-witness-list" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/04/investing/sam-bankman-fried-jury/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close "No." The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_29" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-03 | Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023? | 2023-10-05 | [["2023-10-06", 0.8], ["2023-10-06", 0.775], ["2023-10-06", 0.79], ["2023-10-06", 0.805], ["2023-10-06", 0.814], ["2023-10-06", 0.8283], ["2023-10-06", 0.8514], ["2023-10-06", 0.8638], ["2023-10-06", 0.87], ["2023-10-06", 0.878], ["2023-10-06", 0.8845], ["2023-10-07", 0.89], ["2023-10-07", 0.8985], ["2023-10-07", 0.9062], ["2023-10-07", 0.9057], ["2023-10-07", 0.9113], ["2023-10-07", 0.8981], ["2023-10-07", 0.9], ["2023-10-07", 0.9011], ["2023-10-07", 0.8932], ["2023-10-07", 0.886], ["2023-10-08", 0.8914], ["2023-10-08", 0.8873], ["2023-10-08", 0.885], ["2023-10-08", 0.8845], ["2023-10-08", 0.8787], ["2023-10-08", 0.8833], ["2023-10-08", 0.8868], ["2023-10-08", 0.8912], ["2023-10-08", 0.8915], ["2023-10-08", 0.8952], ["2023-10-09", 0.8968], ["2023-10-09", 0.8969], ["2023-10-09", 0.896], ["2023-10-09", 0.8994], ["2023-10-10", 0.9052], ["2023-10-10", 0.9], ["2023-10-10", 0.8571], ["2023-10-10", 0.9019], ["2023-10-10", 0.9005], ["2023-10-10", 0.899], ["2023-10-10", 0.8877], ["2023-10-10", 0.8861], ["2023-10-10", 0.9032], ["2023-10-10", 0.9052], ["2023-10-11", 0.8622], ["2023-10-12", 0.8459], ["2023-10-12", 0.8512], ["2023-10-12", 0.8559], ["2023-10-12", 0.8535], ["2023-10-12", 0.8594], ["2023-10-13", 0.8647], ["2023-10-13", 0.8647], ["2023-10-14", 0.8611], ["2023-10-14", 0.8617], ["2023-10-15", 0.8633], ["2023-10-16", 0.8494], ["2023-10-16", 0.8383], ["2023-10-17", 0.8389], ["2023-10-17", 0.8383], ["2023-10-17", 0.8383], ["2023-10-17", 0.8417], ["2023-10-17", 0.8417], ["2023-10-17", 0.8467], ["2023-10-18", 0.8495], ["2023-10-19", 0.8458], ["2023-10-20", 0.8463], ["2023-10-20", 0.8384], ["2023-10-21", 0.8879], ["2023-10-21", 0.89], ["2023-10-21", 0.8889], ["2023-10-22", 0.8884], ["2023-10-22", 0.8895], ["2023-10-24", 0.8925], ["2023-10-24", 0.8925], ["2023-10-24", 0.8925], ["2023-10-24", 0.8885], ["2023-10-25", 0.886], ["2023-10-26", 0.9005], ["2023-10-27", 0.9105], ["2023-10-27", 0.911], ["2023-10-27", 0.918], ["2023-10-28", 0.9255], ["2023-10-28", 0.926], ["2023-10-29", 0.926], ["2023-10-30", 0.919], ["2023-10-30", 0.9086], ["2023-10-30", 0.9086], ["2023-10-30", 0.909], ["2023-10-30", 0.911], ["2023-10-30", 0.9124], ["2023-10-31", 0.9105], ["2023-10-31", 0.9105], ["2023-10-31", 0.9105], ["2023-10-31", 0.9068], ["2023-10-31", 0.9077], ["2023-11-01", 0.9086], ["2023-11-01", 0.915], ["2023-11-01", 0.9141], ["2023-11-01", 0.9168], ["2023-11-01", 0.9155], ["2023-11-02", 0.9148], ["2023-11-02", 0.9165], ["2023-11-02", 0.917], ["2023-11-02", 0.9209], ["2023-11-02", 0.9226], ["2023-11-02", 0.9235], ["2023-11-02", 0.9235]] | ["https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/federal-sentencing-statistics/state-district-circuit/2014/nys14.pdf", "https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/speech/prepared-remarks-us-attorney-preet-bharara-new-york-financial-writers-association", "https://www.geoffreygnathanlaw.com/topics/most-famous-embezzlement-cases/#:~:text=10%2B%20All%20Time%20Most%20Famous%20Embezzlement%20Cases%201,Koss%20Inc.%20-%20%2430%20million%20...%20More%20items", "https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/federal-sentencing-statistics/state-district-circuit/2022/nys22.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&emc=edit_mbae_20231010&instance_id=104877&nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition%C2%AEi_id=77825025&segment_id=146996&te=1&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preet_Bharara", "https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/ftx-defrauded-its-customers-says", "https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/03/sbf-ftx-trial-day-one/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIgrC_uYAi1IZxtFYsIkHPqY4_atmqC6WAF7GRIJ78z-Hgn0uC90mP5_JGTyequFnBtMqCBd1DJVwzD13PPZLpDw0pbd-BbyoIfKr3uHWr2o8VSatWjAgSURsFcYW4msXQEhS51ww-XjuVAAFCgOohO6jntkcs5KtonEJqcFay9Z", "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/14/fewer-than-1-of-defendants-in-federal-criminal-cases-were-acquitted-in-2022/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&emc=edit_mbae_20231010&instance_id=104877&nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=146996&te=1&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/technology/ftx-executive-trial-sam-bankman-fried-excess-spending.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/inside-sam-bankman-frieds-35-million-crypto-frat-house-in-bahamas.html", "https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/data_tables/jb_d4_0930.2022.pdf", "https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-criminal-cases-justice", "https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/02/inside-sam-bankman-frieds-family-bubble", "https://gizmodo.com/sbf-finally-testifies-in-court-with-no-jurors-present-1850964343", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205737325/criminal-mastermind-hapless-dude-sam-bankman-fried-trial-ftx", "https://www.ccn.com/news/bankman-fried-testimy-goal-one-juror-believe/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/31/1209498750/sam-bankman-fried-trial-ftx-alameda-testimony-defense", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&emc=edit_mbae_20231010&instance_id=104877&nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition", "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/01/a-pyramid-of-deceit-prosecutors-begin-closing-argument-in-sam-bankman-fried-fraud-trial/", "https://www.msnbc.com/the-cycle/conversation-preet-bharara-and-ari-melber-msna528151", "https://abovethelaw.com/2019/09/why-defendants-rarely-testify/", "https://pcjc.blogs.pace.edu/tag/conviction-rate/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/ftxs-gary-wang-alamedas-caroline-ellison-plead-guilty-to-federal-charges-cooperating-with-prosecutors.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3130 | <p>Pedro Sánchez was reelected as Spain's prime minister on 16 November 2023 after agreeing to push for a generally unpopular amnesty deal for Catalan separatists, including exiled leader Charles Puigdemont (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/spain-sanchez-government-catalonia-amnesty-5dbc03d49474e0a12647afce86980c86" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/15/what-is-the-catalan-amnesty-deal-agreed-by-pedro-sanchez" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231118-thousands-protest-spain-s-catalan-separatist-amnesty-law" target="_blank">France 24</a>). For a return to Spain to count, Puigdemont's presence in Spain must be publicly known, and entering and leaving the country without it being publicly known that he's in the country would not count (<a href="https://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/zoido_201801235a66f2570cf20474677c06b9.html" target="_blank">Antena 3</a> [in Spanish]). Whether Puigdemont returns voluntarily is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 December 2024, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont publicly return to Spain? | 2023-11-22 | [["2023-11-24", 1.0], ["2023-11-24", 1.0], ["2023-11-25", 1.0], ["2023-11-25", 0.9625], ["2023-11-25", 0.995], ["2023-11-25", 1.0], ["2023-11-25", 0.934], ["2023-11-25", 0.8883], ["2023-11-25", 0.7614], ["2023-11-25", 0.76], ["2023-11-25", 0.7422], ["2023-11-25", 0.68], ["2023-11-25", 0.678], ["2023-11-25", 0.679], ["2023-11-25", 0.6773], ["2023-11-26", 0.6825], ["2023-11-26", 0.6562], ["2023-11-27", 0.6562], ["2023-11-27", 0.6562], ["2023-11-27", 0.655], ["2023-11-27", 0.6393], ["2023-11-27", 0.638], ["2023-11-27", 0.6338], ["2023-11-28", 0.5831], ["2023-11-28", 0.555], ["2023-11-30", 0.642], ["2023-12-01", 0.626], ["2023-12-03", 0.692], ["2023-12-03", 0.703], ["2023-12-03", 0.715], ["2023-12-04", 0.724], ["2023-12-04", 0.734], ["2023-12-05", 0.767], ["2023-12-06", 0.685], ["2023-12-07", 0.761], ["2023-12-08", 0.746], ["2023-12-09", 0.667], ["2023-12-09", 0.658], ["2023-12-11", 0.655], ["2023-12-13", 0.6045], ["2023-12-14", 0.5945], ["2023-12-18", 0.5927], ["2023-12-18", 0.5909], ["2023-12-18", 0.5273], ["2023-12-19", 0.5145], ["2023-12-22", 0.4982], ["2023-12-25", 0.49], ["2023-12-25", 0.4827], ["2023-12-27", 0.46], ["2023-12-27", 0.4509], ["2023-12-28", 0.48], ["2023-12-30", 0.4558], ["2023-12-31", 0.4525], ["2024-01-01", 0.4492], ["2024-01-02", 0.4483], ["2024-01-02", 0.4458], ["2024-01-04", 0.4375], ["2024-01-05", 0.4333], ["2024-01-12", 0.4392], ["2024-01-12", 0.4392]] | ["https://www.ft.com/content/0f016764-0f9b-4976-8272-06b28b5c3e2d"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3131 |
<p>After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-flight-readiness-four-weeks" target="_blank">Space.com</a>, <a href="https://isp.page/news/elon-musk-reveals-readiness-date-for-starships-next-flight" target="_blank">Isp.page</a>, <a href="https://payloadspace.com/whats-next-for-starship-in-dc/" target="_blank">Payload</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-pad-good-condition" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (<a href="https://twitter.com/FAANews/status/1724899056315777260" target="_blank">X [fka Twitter]</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2023-11-15/faa-approves-license-for-spacexs-second-launch-of-starship-super-heavy" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024? | 2023-11-22 | [["2023-11-24", 0.5], ["2023-11-24", 0.75], ["2023-11-24", 0.5333], ["2023-11-24", 0.4], ["2023-11-25", 0.434], ["2023-11-25", 0.4383], ["2023-11-25", 0.3757], ["2023-11-25", 0.3288], ["2023-11-25", 0.3589], ["2023-11-25", 0.353], ["2023-11-25", 0.351], ["2023-11-25", 0.3464], ["2023-11-25", 0.3364], ["2023-11-26", 0.3292], ["2023-11-26", 0.3277], ["2023-11-26", 0.3043], ["2023-11-26", 0.3253], ["2023-11-26", 0.3187], ["2023-11-26", 0.3275], ["2023-11-27", 0.3229], ["2023-11-27", 0.3156], ["2023-11-27", 0.3226], ["2023-11-28", 0.3371], ["2023-11-28", 0.32], ["2023-11-28", 0.2994], ["2023-11-28", 0.2929], ["2023-11-28", 0.3121], ["2023-11-29", 0.315], ["2023-11-29", 0.303], ["2023-11-30", 0.2845], ["2023-11-30", 0.2827], ["2023-11-30", 0.236], ["2023-11-30", 0.2236], ["2023-11-30", 0.2236], ["2023-11-30", 0.191], ["2023-11-30", 0.1827], ["2023-11-30", 0.1736], ["2023-11-30", 0.1691], ["2023-11-30", 0.1655], ["2023-12-01", 0.1667], ["2023-12-01", 0.1673], ["2023-12-01", 0.1618], ["2023-12-01", 0.112], ["2023-12-02", 0.107], ["2023-12-02", 0.1018], ["2023-12-02", 0.0973], ["2023-12-02", 0.0927], ["2023-12-02", 0.0927], ["2023-12-02", 0.09], ["2023-12-02", 0.0867], ["2023-12-03", 0.09], ["2023-12-03", 0.08], ["2023-12-03", 0.08], ["2023-12-04", 0.08], ["2023-12-04", 0.06], ["2023-12-04", 0.06], ["2023-12-05", 0.04], ["2023-12-07", 0.04], ["2023-12-07", 0.03], ["2023-12-07", 0.04], ["2023-12-07", 0.03], ["2023-12-08", 0.03], ["2023-12-09", 0.03], ["2023-12-09", 0.025], ["2023-12-10", 0.02], ["2023-12-11", 0.02], ["2023-12-11", 0.02], ["2023-12-12", 0.02], ["2023-12-12", 0.0175], ["2023-12-12", 0.03], ["2023-12-13", 0.03], ["2023-12-14", 0.02], ["2023-12-15", 0.0225], ["2023-12-16", 0.0225], ["2023-12-16", 0.0225], ["2023-12-17", 0.03], ["2023-12-17", 0.03], ["2023-12-18", 0.025], ["2023-12-21", 0.02], ["2023-12-21", 0.02], ["2023-12-21", 0.02], ["2023-12-22", 0.02], ["2023-12-23", 0.02], ["2023-12-25", 0.02], ["2023-12-25", 0.02], ["2023-12-26", 0.04], ["2023-12-26", 0.02], ["2023-12-26", 0.0943], ["2023-12-27", 0.088], ["2023-12-28", 0.09], ["2023-12-29", 0.0867], ["2023-12-29", 0.0867], ["2023-12-29", 0.0813], ["2023-12-29", 0.0806], ["2023-12-30", 0.0806], ["2023-12-30", 0.0806], ["2023-12-31", 0.1431], ["2023-12-31", 0.1431], ["2023-12-31", 0.1431], ["2024-01-01", 0.1431]] | ["https://aviationweek.com/AWST", "https://www.commerce.gov/hr/practitioners/ses-policies/plum-book", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/spacex-completes-static-fire-test-in-push-toward-third-starship-launch/", "https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-closes-spacex-starship-mishap-investigation", "https://observer.com/2023/11/spacex-starship-3rd-orbital-test-timeline/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3001 | <p>On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (<a href="https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx" target="_blank">HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency</a>, <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/05/09/fact-sheet-end-of-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency.html" target="_blank">HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency</a>). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (<a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/" target="_blank">Trump White House Archives</a>). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count (<a href="https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/planning/authority/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/National_Emergencies_Act" target="_blank">Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act</a>). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government? | 2023-09-01 | [["2023-09-01", 0.02], ["2023-09-01", 0.015], ["2023-09-01", 0.0133], ["2023-09-01", 0.01], ["2023-09-01", 0.008], ["2023-09-01", 0.0067], ["2023-09-01", 0.0057], ["2023-09-01", 0.0113], ["2023-09-01", 0.0267], ["2023-09-01", 0.035], ["2023-09-02", 0.0364], ["2023-09-02", 0.0833], ["2023-09-02", 0.0417], ["2023-09-02", 0.0385], ["2023-09-02", 0.0364], ["2023-09-02", 0.054], ["2023-09-02", 0.036], ["2023-09-02", 0.0338], ["2023-09-02", 0.0347], ["2023-09-02", 0.0328], ["2023-09-02", 0.0316], ["2023-09-03", 0.0325], ["2023-09-03", 0.0325], ["2023-09-03", 0.0314], ["2023-09-03", 0.03], ["2023-09-03", 0.0396], ["2023-09-04", 0.0379], ["2023-09-04", 0.0384], ["2023-09-04", 0.0408], ["2023-09-04", 0.043], ["2023-09-04", 0.0425], ["2023-09-04", 0.0421], ["2023-09-04", 0.0403], ["2023-09-04", 0.0393], ["2023-09-04", 0.0413], ["2023-09-04", 0.0666], ["2023-09-04", 0.0669], ["2023-09-04", 0.0727], ["2023-09-05", 0.0709], ["2023-09-05", 0.0786], ["2023-09-05", 0.0755], ["2023-09-05", 0.0847], ["2023-09-06", 0.0867], ["2023-09-06", 0.09], ["2023-09-06", 0.0861], ["2023-09-06", 0.0818], ["2023-09-06", 0.0883], ["2023-09-07", 0.1074], ["2023-09-07", 0.1088], ["2023-09-07", 0.1061], ["2023-09-07", 0.1033], ["2023-09-07", 0.1044], ["2023-09-07", 0.1011], ["2023-09-07", 0.1011], ["2023-09-07", 0.1006], ["2023-09-08", 0.0968], ["2023-09-12", 0.0968], ["2023-09-12", 0.0989], ["2023-09-14", 0.0989], ["2023-09-14", 0.0626], ["2023-09-16", 0.0632], ["2023-09-16", 0.0632], ["2023-09-17", 0.0611], ["2023-09-17", 0.0621], ["2023-09-18", 0.0616], ["2023-09-18", 0.0605], ["2023-09-18", 0.06], ["2023-09-18", 0.067], ["2023-09-19", 0.067], ["2023-09-20", 0.066], ["2023-09-20", 0.066], ["2023-09-21", 0.066], ["2023-09-23", 0.0629], ["2023-09-23", 0.04], ["2023-09-23", 0.04], ["2023-09-25", 0.04], ["2023-09-26", 0.04], ["2023-09-26", 0.04], ["2023-09-26", 0.03], ["2023-09-28", 0.03], ["2023-09-29", 0.03], ["2023-09-29", 0.04], ["2023-09-29", 0.045], ["2023-10-01", 0.04], ["2023-10-01", 0.04], ["2023-10-03", 0.04], ["2023-10-04", 0.04], ["2023-10-10", 0.0474], ["2023-10-12", 0.047], ["2023-10-16", 0.0457], ["2023-10-17", 0.04], ["2023-10-17", 0.04], ["2023-10-19", 0.04], ["2023-10-25", 0.04], ["2023-10-25", 0.04], ["2023-10-29", 0.04], ["2023-10-31", 0.04], ["2023-11-01", 0.04], ["2023-11-02", 0.04], ["2023-11-02", 0.04], ["2023-11-05", 0.0375], ["2023-11-05", 0.0417], ["2023-11-05", 0.0421], ["2023-11-08", 0.04], ["2023-11-09", 0.04], ["2023-11-09", 0.03], ["2023-11-11", 0.03], ["2023-11-12", 0.038], ["2023-11-13", 0.0384], ["2023-11-13", 0.0364], ["2023-11-14", 0.0364], ["2023-11-14", 0.0368], ["2023-11-15", 0.0368], ["2023-11-15", 0.0368], ["2023-11-18", 0.036], ["2023-11-18", 0.0356], ["2023-11-19", 0.0356], ["2023-11-20", 0.0352], ["2023-11-22", 0.0352], ["2023-11-25", 0.04], ["2023-11-26", 0.04], ["2023-11-27", 0.04], ["2023-11-27", 0.04], ["2023-11-28", 0.04], ["2023-11-29", 0.04], ["2023-12-02", 0.04], ["2023-12-03", 0.04], ["2023-12-04", 0.0419], ["2023-12-06", 0.0419], ["2023-12-08", 0.0419], ["2023-12-10", 0.0415], ["2023-12-12", 0.0415], ["2023-12-13", 0.0415], ["2023-12-13", 0.0415], ["2023-12-13", 0.0446], ["2023-12-15", 0.0446], ["2023-12-20", 0.0442], ["2023-12-20", 0.0442], ["2023-12-20", 0.0442], ["2023-12-21", 0.0442], ["2023-12-21", 0.0458], ["2023-12-22", 0.0388], ["2023-12-23", 0.0378], ["2023-12-25", 0.03], ["2023-12-27", 0.03], ["2023-12-28", 0.03], ["2023-12-28", 0.03], ["2023-12-29", 0.0382], ["2023-12-29", 0.0379], ["2024-01-01", 0.0736], ["2024-01-02", 0.0736], ["2024-01-03", 0.0736], ["2024-01-04", 0.0775], ["2024-01-08", 0.0786], ["2024-01-08", 0.0718], ["2024-01-09", 0.0718], ["2024-01-09", 0.0718], ["2024-01-09", 0.0707], ["2024-01-10", 0.0707], ["2024-01-11", 0.0686], ["2024-01-12", 0.0686]] | ["https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flu-and-covid-autumn-vaccine-programmes-brought-forward", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-levels-are-so-high-they-re-hovering-near-2020-s-initial-peak-as-the-who-urges-those-at-high-risk-to-take-any-booster-they-can-get-their-hands-on/ar-AA1gO2PJ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f15844af7bc64c3f92af0480430a161b&ei=24", "https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1964", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/early-lab-tests-suggest-new-covid-19-variant-ba-2-86-may-be-less-contagious-and-less-immune-evasive-than-feared-1.6547033", "https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html", "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings/sars-cov-2-variant-surveillance-and-assessment-technical-briefing-53", "https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/SARS-CoV-2-variant-JN.1.html", "https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2023/09/12/how-evasive-and-transmissible-is-the-newest-omicron-offshoot-ba-2-86-that-causes-covid-19/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1124915/flu-deaths-number-us/", "https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3017 | <p>Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4128618-former-russian-president-warns-of-nuclear-response-if-ukraine-counter-offensive-is-successful/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-difficult-but-necessary-decision/" target="_blank">Russia in Global Affairs</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kremlin-nuclear-strike-us-popov-korotchenko-1824285" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-dirty-bombs.html" target="_blank">Nuclear Regulatory Commission</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 May 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace? | 2023-09-15 | [["2023-09-15", 0.08], ["2023-09-15", 0.045], ["2023-09-15", 0.03], ["2023-09-15", 0.025], ["2023-09-15", 0.022], ["2023-09-15", 0.0217], ["2023-09-15", 0.0257], ["2023-09-15", 0.0288], ["2023-09-15", 0.0256], ["2023-09-15", 0.023], ["2023-09-16", 0.0218], ["2023-09-16", 0.02], ["2023-09-16", 0.0192], ["2023-09-16", 0.0138], ["2023-09-16", 0.0129], ["2023-09-16", 0.012], ["2023-09-17", 0.0144], ["2023-09-17", 0.0165], ["2023-09-17", 0.0147], ["2023-09-17", 0.0661], ["2023-09-17", 0.0272], ["2023-09-17", 0.0268], ["2023-09-17", 0.028], ["2023-09-17", 0.0267], ["2023-09-17", 0.0291], ["2023-09-17", 0.0296], ["2023-09-17", 0.0283], ["2023-09-17", 0.0292], ["2023-09-17", 0.0285], ["2023-09-18", 0.0278], ["2023-09-18", 0.0271], ["2023-09-18", 0.0272], ["2023-09-18", 0.0263], ["2023-09-18", 0.0258], ["2023-09-18", 0.0259], ["2023-09-18", 0.0269], ["2023-09-18", 0.0267], ["2023-09-18", 0.0262], ["2023-09-18", 0.03], ["2023-09-18", 0.0335], ["2023-09-18", 0.0325], ["2023-09-18", 0.0319], ["2023-09-19", 0.043], ["2023-09-19", 0.043], ["2023-09-19", 0.0455], ["2023-09-20", 0.0485], ["2023-09-20", 0.0481], ["2023-09-20", 0.0474], ["2023-09-20", 0.0461], ["2023-09-20", 0.0489], ["2023-09-20", 0.047], ["2023-09-20", 0.046], ["2023-09-21", 0.053], ["2023-09-21", 0.0535], ["2023-09-22", 0.0555], ["2023-09-22", 0.0529], ["2023-09-23", 0.0514], ["2023-09-23", 0.0536], ["2023-09-23", 0.04], ["2023-09-24", 0.0545], ["2023-09-25", 0.055], ["2023-09-25", 0.0526], ["2023-09-27", 0.0657], ["2023-09-27", 0.0629], ["2023-09-27", 0.055], ["2023-09-29", 0.0575], ["2023-09-29", 0.0563], ["2023-09-30", 0.0563], ["2023-10-01", 0.054], ["2023-10-02", 0.0536], ["2023-10-02", 0.0448], ["2023-10-03", 0.0435], ["2023-10-05", 0.0431], ["2023-10-05", 0.0435], ["2023-10-05", 0.0492], ["2023-10-05", 0.0858], ["2023-10-05", 0.0481], ["2023-10-08", 0.0485], ["2023-10-08", 0.0481], ["2023-10-08", 0.0508], ["2023-10-09", 0.0504], ["2023-10-09", 0.0496], ["2023-10-09", 0.0531], ["2023-10-10", 0.0522], ["2023-10-10", 0.0519], ["2023-10-10", 0.0504], ["2023-10-10", 0.0681], ["2023-10-12", 0.0689], ["2023-10-12", 0.0707], ["2023-10-12", 0.0722], ["2023-10-13", 0.0696], ["2023-10-14", 0.0696], ["2023-10-14", 0.0696], ["2023-10-14", 0.0671], ["2023-10-15", 0.0671], ["2023-10-16", 0.0671], ["2023-10-17", 0.0643], ["2023-10-18", 0.055], ["2023-10-18", 0.055], ["2023-10-18", 0.0575], ["2023-10-19", 0.0575], ["2023-10-19", 0.0471], ["2023-10-20", 0.0479], ["2023-10-20", 0.0479], ["2023-10-21", 0.0466], ["2023-10-22", 0.0459], ["2023-10-23", 0.0459], ["2023-10-24", 0.0541], ["2023-10-24", 0.0521], ["2023-10-24", 0.0503], ["2023-10-25", 0.0503], ["2023-10-25", 0.0503], ["2023-10-26", 0.0503], ["2023-10-27", 0.051], ["2023-10-28", 0.0513], ["2023-10-28", 0.0513], ["2023-10-29", 0.0527], ["2023-10-30", 0.053], ["2023-10-30", 0.053], ["2023-11-01", 0.053], ["2023-11-01", 0.059], ["2023-11-01", 0.059], ["2023-11-02", 0.0587], ["2023-11-02", 0.0587], ["2023-11-02", 0.0587], ["2023-11-03", 0.0526], ["2023-11-03", 0.0523], ["2023-11-04", 0.0506], ["2023-11-05", 0.0506], ["2023-11-06", 0.0519], ["2023-11-06", 0.0513], ["2023-11-06", 0.0509], ["2023-11-06", 0.0494], ["2023-11-07", 0.0494], ["2023-11-07", 0.0494], ["2023-11-08", 0.0494], ["2023-11-10", 0.0494], ["2023-11-10", 0.0494], ["2023-11-12", 0.0494], ["2023-11-13", 0.0515], ["2023-11-13", 0.0512], ["2023-11-14", 0.0491], ["2023-11-14", 0.043], ["2023-11-14", 0.043], ["2023-11-16", 0.0427], ["2023-11-17", 0.0427], ["2023-11-17", 0.0553], ["2023-11-17", 0.0553], ["2023-11-18", 0.0432], ["2023-11-18", 0.0432], ["2023-11-19", 0.0432], ["2023-11-19", 0.0429], ["2023-11-19", 0.0429], ["2023-11-20", 0.0429], ["2023-11-20", 0.0429], ["2023-11-21", 0.0426], ["2023-11-23", 0.0426], ["2023-11-23", 0.0426], ["2023-11-25", 0.0441], ["2023-11-25", 0.0438], ["2023-11-25", 0.0424], ["2023-11-25", 0.0424], ["2023-11-25", 0.0421], ["2023-11-26", 0.0418], ["2023-11-26", 0.0418], ["2023-11-27", 0.0332], ["2023-11-27", 0.0332], ["2023-11-27", 0.0351], ["2023-11-27", 0.0351], ["2023-11-27", 0.0351], ["2023-11-28", 0.0323], ["2023-11-29", 0.0291], ["2023-11-30", 0.0289], ["2023-11-30", 0.0289], ["2023-12-02", 0.0289], ["2023-12-03", 0.0286], ["2023-12-03", 0.0286], ["2023-12-04", 0.0286], ["2023-12-05", 0.03], ["2023-12-07", 0.028], ["2023-12-07", 0.028], ["2023-12-07", 0.028], ["2023-12-07", 0.0292], ["2023-12-07", 0.0289], ["2023-12-11", 0.0289], ["2023-12-12", 0.0289], ["2023-12-13", 0.0289], ["2023-12-13", 0.0281], ["2023-12-13", 0.02], ["2023-12-14", 0.02], ["2023-12-14", 0.02], ["2023-12-15", 0.02], ["2023-12-18", 0.0353], ["2023-12-18", 0.0353], ["2023-12-19", 0.0339], ["2023-12-19", 0.0339], ["2023-12-19", 0.0335], ["2023-12-20", 0.0335], ["2023-12-21", 0.0335], ["2023-12-22", 0.0335], ["2023-12-22", 0.0335], ["2023-12-22", 0.0341], ["2023-12-23", 0.0341], ["2023-12-26", 0.0341], ["2023-12-26", 0.033], ["2023-12-26", 0.0584], ["2023-12-27", 0.0584], ["2023-12-27", 0.0584], ["2023-12-27", 0.0584], ["2023-12-27", 0.0589], ["2023-12-27", 0.0589], ["2023-12-27", 0.06], ["2023-12-27", 0.06], ["2023-12-27", 0.06], ["2023-12-28", 0.0585], ["2023-12-28", 0.0585], ["2023-12-29", 0.0574], ["2024-01-01", 0.0574], ["2024-01-02", 0.056], ["2024-01-02", 0.056], ["2024-01-02", 0.055], ["2024-01-02", 0.0533], ["2024-01-02", 0.0533], ["2024-01-03", 0.0528], ["2024-01-03", 0.0528], ["2024-01-03", 0.0528], ["2024-01-04", 0.0515], ["2024-01-04", 0.0517], ["2024-01-04", 0.0517], ["2024-01-06", 0.0517], ["2024-01-06", 0.0517], ["2024-01-06", 0.0505], ["2024-01-06", 0.0502], ["2024-01-07", 0.0502], ["2024-01-07", 0.0523], ["2024-01-07", 0.0509], ["2024-01-08", 0.0509], ["2024-01-08", 0.0509], ["2024-01-09", 0.0509], ["2024-01-09", 0.0509], ["2024-01-10", 0.0509], ["2024-01-10", 0.0509], ["2024-01-10", 0.0509], ["2024-01-11", 0.0509], ["2024-01-11", 0.0467], ["2024-01-12", 0.0467], ["2024-01-12", 0.0457], ["2024-01-13", 0.0457]] | ["https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90232", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47383634", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/07/world/europe/russia-nuclear-threat-putin.html", "https://thehill.com/homenews/4128618-former-russian-president-warns-of-nuclear-response-if-ukraine-counter-offensive-is-successful/", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/belarus-leader-russian-nuclear-weapons-shipments-completed-raising-105911878", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-west-has-lost-touch-with-reality-russia-had-push-back-2023-10-05/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-real-biden-warns-rcna90114", "https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/06/21/is-it-time-to-take-putins-nuclear-threats-more-seriously", "http://wdc.org.ua/atlas/en/4080100.html", "https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/the-nuclear-shadows-of-the-russia-ukraine-war-a-chinese-perspective/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-warns-russian-army-will-be-annihilated-if-putin-uses-nuclear-weapon-on-ukraine/", "https://www.ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3", "https://www.voanews.com/a/think-tank-rail-traffic-surge-on-north-korea-russia-border-suggests-arms-supply-to-russia/7302082.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3010 |
<p>The US office vacancy rate in the US rose to 16.4% in the second quarter of 2023, higher than its peak of the global financial crisis (16.3%) as the office property market faces a major downturn (<a href="https://www.colliers.com/en/research/us-office-market-outlook-q2-2023" target="_blank">Colliers - US Office Market Outlook Q2 2023</a>, <a href="https://theweek.com/economy/1024433/making-sense-of-americas-commercial-real-estate-crisis" target="_blank">The Week</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using US office vacancy data as first reported by Colliers, expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-09 | Will the US office vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 be 16.5% or higher, according to Colliers? | 2023-09-07 | [["2023-09-08", 1.0], ["2023-09-08", 0.875], ["2023-09-08", 0.8267], ["2023-09-08", 0.8175], ["2023-09-08", 0.81], ["2023-09-08", 0.802], ["2023-09-09", 0.7983], ["2023-09-09", 0.8083], ["2023-09-09", 0.7929], ["2023-09-09", 0.7829], ["2023-09-09", 0.7943], ["2023-09-09", 0.6975], ["2023-09-09", 0.6533], ["2023-09-09", 0.688], ["2023-09-09", 0.6982], ["2023-09-10", 0.7025], ["2023-09-10", 0.7215], ["2023-09-10", 0.6879], ["2023-09-11", 0.7087], ["2023-09-12", 0.6883], ["2023-09-13", 0.614], ["2023-09-13", 0.697], ["2023-09-13", 0.757], ["2023-09-13", 0.745], ["2023-09-14", 0.755], ["2023-09-15", 0.765], ["2023-09-15", 0.77], ["2023-09-16", 0.761], ["2023-09-16", 0.796], ["2023-09-17", 0.786], ["2023-09-17", 0.795], ["2023-09-17", 0.797], ["2023-09-18", 0.797], ["2023-09-18", 0.798], ["2023-09-18", 0.835], ["2023-09-18", 0.832], ["2023-09-18", 0.822], ["2023-09-19", 0.8018], ["2023-09-19", 0.7609], ["2023-09-20", 0.7636], ["2023-09-22", 0.75], ["2023-09-23", 0.75], ["2023-09-23", 0.7691], ["2023-09-25", 0.7936], ["2023-09-27", 0.79], ["2023-09-29", 0.7858], ["2023-09-29", 0.7658], ["2023-09-30", 0.7917], ["2023-09-30", 0.7958], ["2023-10-01", 0.7958]] | ["https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-job-market-boom-is-over-heres-why-and-what-it-means-5f3e498f?mod=hp_lead_pos1", "https://www.inc.com/sarah-lynch-/the-post-labor-day-return-to-office-push-is-here-what-leaders-need-to-know.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/infamous-san-diego-high-rise-joins-office-to-apartment-conversion-trend/ar-AA1gnB2C", "https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-making-workers-employees-return-to-office-rto-wfh-hybrid-2023-1", "https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/san-francisco-office-market-shows-signs-of-life-93a95515?st=l95m21jg6pmvfs0&reflink=article_copyURL_share", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/", "https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/benefits/pages/as-summer-ends-workers-head-back-to-the-office.aspx#:~:text=About%2051%20percent%20of%20employers,to%20by%202025%20or%20later", "https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/even-a-booming-economy-cant-save-atlantas-office-market-1246e446?mod=hp_lead_pos3"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-12-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2967 |
<p>Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-crimea-chonhar-bridge-damage-photo-russia-logistics-bases-dzankoi-1816545" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-shelling-civilians-killed-donetsk-7954cc6c8f2ce4e3fc94c05bba19d96c" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/07/18/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70423412007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-15 | Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 December 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)? | 2023-08-04 | [["2023-08-04", 0.08], ["2023-08-04", 0.19], ["2023-08-04", 0.1433], ["2023-08-04", 0.1325], ["2023-08-04", 0.106], ["2023-08-04", 0.2533], ["2023-08-04", 0.09], ["2023-08-04", 0.0914], ["2023-08-04", 0.2025], ["2023-08-04", 0.1967], ["2023-08-04", 0.187], ["2023-08-04", 0.17], ["2023-08-04", 0.1567], ["2023-08-04", 0.1558], ["2023-08-04", 0.2208], ["2023-08-04", 0.215], ["2023-08-05", 0.2121], ["2023-08-05", 0.198], ["2023-08-05", 0.1863], ["2023-08-05", 0.1753], ["2023-08-05", 0.1656], ["2023-08-05", 0.1589], ["2023-08-05", 0.151], ["2023-08-05", 0.151], ["2023-08-05", 0.1441], ["2023-08-05", 0.1387], ["2023-08-05", 0.1333], ["2023-08-05", 0.1288], 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["2023-08-10", 0.1384], ["2023-08-11", 0.1352], ["2023-08-11", 0.1304], ["2023-08-12", 0.1308], ["2023-08-12", 0.1313], ["2023-08-13", 0.1317], ["2023-08-13", 0.1317], ["2023-08-14", 0.1388], ["2023-08-15", 0.1404], ["2023-08-15", 0.1404], ["2023-08-15", 0.14], ["2023-08-17", 0.1404], ["2023-08-17", 0.1448], ["2023-08-17", 0.1476], ["2023-08-18", 0.1476], ["2023-08-19", 0.1635], ["2023-08-19", 0.1423], ["2023-08-20", 0.1431], ["2023-08-21", 0.145], ["2023-08-24", 0.1437], ["2023-08-24", 0.1456], ["2023-08-24", 0.1541], ["2023-08-24", 0.1189], ["2023-08-24", 0.117], ["2023-08-25", 0.1215], ["2023-08-25", 0.1207], ["2023-08-25", 0.1171], ["2023-08-26", 0.1164], ["2023-08-26", 0.1157], ["2023-08-27", 0.1161], ["2023-08-27", 0.1346], ["2023-08-28", 0.1343], ["2023-08-29", 0.1328], ["2023-09-01", 0.1359], ["2023-09-02", 0.1313], ["2023-09-02", 0.1313], ["2023-09-02", 0.1313], ["2023-09-02", 0.131], ["2023-09-02", 0.131], ["2023-09-02", 0.1297], ["2023-09-03", 0.1297], ["2023-09-05", 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"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-offensive-inches-forward-in-search-of-a-breakthrough/ar-AA1eK8I8", "https://www.google.com/maps/@46.468481,33.7815119,283131m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu", "https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20230914_09/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Cartographical%20Methodology%20Explanation%20ISW%20CTP%202022.pdf", "https://www.google.com/maps/@46.468481,33.7815119,240656m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-launched-special-operation-russian-occupied-crimea-2023-08-24/", "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-crimea-ukraine-kerch-bridge-c3759176ab015796a1e21ca82f19e0c9", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/22/ukraine-crimea-russia-putin-red-line-00083857"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3037 | <p>Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/after-ap-report-irans-nuclear-chief-tehran-cooperate-99562281" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-uranium-enrichment-germany-israel-c9b3669a7721bd8929d465117c81b70f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iran/2023/05/23/action-on-horizon-over-iran-nuclear-work-says-top-israeli-general/" target="_blank">The National</a>). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Before 1 October 2024, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran? | 2023-09-29 | [["2023-09-29", 0.8], ["2023-09-29", 0.455], ["2023-09-29", 0.3033], ["2023-09-29", 0.2475], ["2023-09-29", 0.32], ["2023-09-29", 0.275], ["2023-09-29", 0.2583], ["2023-09-30", 0.2714], ["2023-09-30", 0.25], ["2023-09-30", 0.3213], 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0.2003], ["2023-11-29", 0.2016], ["2023-11-29", 0.2097], ["2023-11-29", 0.2097], ["2023-11-30", 0.2089], ["2023-11-30", 0.2089], ["2023-11-30", 0.2095], ["2023-12-03", 0.2319], ["2023-12-03", 0.2319], ["2023-12-04", 0.2319], ["2023-12-05", 0.2332], ["2023-12-05", 0.2397], ["2023-12-07", 0.2397], ["2023-12-07", 0.2389], ["2023-12-07", 0.2389], ["2023-12-09", 0.2416], ["2023-12-10", 0.2416], ["2023-12-10", 0.2419], ["2023-12-12", 0.2332], ["2023-12-12", 0.2359], ["2023-12-12", 0.2349], ["2023-12-12", 0.2349], ["2023-12-12", 0.24], ["2023-12-12", 0.2411], ["2023-12-13", 0.2453], ["2023-12-14", 0.245], ["2023-12-15", 0.2284], ["2023-12-15", 0.2282], ["2023-12-15", 0.2224], ["2023-12-16", 0.2211], ["2023-12-17", 0.2205], ["2023-12-18", 0.2203], ["2023-12-19", 0.2197], ["2023-12-19", 0.2197], ["2023-12-21", 0.21], ["2023-12-22", 0.2066], ["2023-12-22", 0.205], ["2023-12-23", 0.2042], ["2023-12-24", 0.2037], ["2023-12-24", 0.2037], ["2023-12-26", 0.2037], ["2023-12-26", 0.2058], ["2023-12-26", 0.2087], ["2023-12-26", 0.2268], ["2023-12-27", 0.2467], ["2023-12-27", 0.2482], ["2023-12-28", 0.2469], ["2023-12-28", 0.2433], ["2023-12-28", 0.2595], ["2023-12-28", 0.26], ["2023-12-29", 0.2608], ["2023-12-29", 0.258], ["2023-12-29", 0.2573], ["2023-12-30", 0.2524], ["2023-12-31", 0.2639], ["2023-12-31", 0.2651], ["2023-12-31", 0.2637], ["2023-12-31", 0.2629], ["2024-01-01", 0.2846], ["2024-01-02", 0.2898], ["2024-01-02", 0.2933], ["2024-01-02", 0.2931], ["2024-01-02", 0.2917], ["2024-01-03", 0.2921], ["2024-01-03", 0.2931], ["2024-01-03", 0.2929], ["2024-01-03", 0.2933], ["2024-01-04", 0.2933], ["2024-01-05", 0.2933], ["2024-01-05", 0.2945], ["2024-01-06", 0.2876], ["2024-01-06", 0.2809], ["2024-01-06", 0.2798], ["2024-01-06", 0.2768], ["2024-01-07", 0.2757], ["2024-01-07", 0.2743], ["2024-01-07", 0.2705], ["2024-01-08", 0.2709], ["2024-01-08", 0.2698], ["2024-01-08", 0.2689], ["2024-01-09", 0.2689], ["2024-01-12", 0.2698], ["2024-01-12", 0.2675], ["2024-01-12", 0.2675]] | ["https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/17/israel-isnt-strong-enough-to-attack-iran/", "https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/aug/11/timeline-israeli-attacks-iran", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-spokesman-says-iran-gave-support-for-surprise-attack-on-israel/", "https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/jan/25/israel-iran-threat-options", "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/israels-dilemma-if-it-attacks-iran-will-it-also-have-to-hit-hezbollah/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-758477", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Israel_Defense_Forces_operations", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/will-israel-hamas-gaza-conflict-spark-wider-war-united-states-rcna122991", "https://time.com/6286783/israel-iran-military-preparations/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/17/israel-iran-hezbollah-wider-war/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/30/israel-strikes-syria-lebanon-following-rocket-attacks-military-says", "https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/09/no-evidence-yet-of-iran-link-to-hamas-attack-says-israeli-military", "https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-will-prevent-iran-from-acquiring-nuclear-weapons-capability-envoy-says/6966513.html", "https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/aug/11/timeline-israeli-attacks-iran#:~:text=Since%202010%2C%20Israel%20has%20allegedly%20conducted%20at%20least,assassinations%2C%20drone%20strikes%20and%20cyberattacks%20%E2%80%93%20on%20Iran", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-official-we-expected-more-support-from-iran/", "https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25", "https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-is-the-only-one-likely-to-benefit-from-hamas-attack-on-israel/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/iranian-officials-helped-hamas-plan-deadly-attack-on-israel-2023-10?amp", "https://x.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1710608114150420859?s=20", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-president-backs-assault-on-israel-holds-talks-with-gaza-terror-leaders/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/israels-dangerous-shadow-war-iran", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67872281", "https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/jul/11/us-intelligence-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program", "https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c2vdnvdg6xxt", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12614097/Irans-leader-says-kiss-hands-planned-attack-Israel-Western-fears-Islamic-nation-provided-Hamas-weapons-training-surprise-incursion-grow.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3043 | <p>While the Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in the summer of 2023 has produced limited territorial gains, Melitopol is still seen as a target (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-18/ukrainian-forces-could-fail-to-retake-strategic-city-of-melitopol-us-official" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-crimean-bridge-attack-melitopol-counteroffensive-gains/32575491.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/27/ukrainian-forces-reported-to-be-continuing-offensive-in-direction-of-melitopol" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 April 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-10-05 | [["2023-10-06", 0.16], ["2023-10-06", 0.155], ["2023-10-06", 0.1433], ["2023-10-06", 0.17], ["2023-10-06", 0.156], ["2023-10-06", 0.146], ["2023-10-06", 0.2183], ["2023-10-06", 0.1914], ["2023-10-06", 0.2113], ["2023-10-06", 0.1889], ["2023-10-06", 0.172], ["2023-10-07", 0.1609], ["2023-10-07", 0.1555], ["2023-10-07", 0.1425], ["2023-10-07", 0.1346], ["2023-10-07", 0.125], ["2023-10-07", 0.1367], ["2023-10-07", 0.1306], ["2023-10-07", 0.1235], ["2023-10-07", 0.1472], ["2023-10-07", 0.1447], ["2023-10-07", 0.1437], ["2023-10-07", 0.1375], ["2023-10-07", 0.1548], ["2023-10-08", 0.1518], ["2023-10-08", 0.1561], ["2023-10-08", 0.1579], ["2023-10-08", 0.1575], ["2023-10-08", 0.1812], ["2023-10-08", 0.1812], ["2023-10-08", 0.1742], ["2023-10-08", 0.1712], ["2023-10-08", 0.1681], ["2023-10-08", 0.1711], ["2023-10-08", 0.1755], ["2023-10-08", 0.1738], ["2023-10-09", 0.1687], ["2023-10-09", 0.1673], ["2023-10-09", 0.179], ["2023-10-10", 0.2205], ["2023-10-10", 0.2295], ["2023-10-10", 0.2111], ["2023-10-11", 0.2056], ["2023-10-11", 0.1714], ["2023-10-12", 0.1707], ["2023-10-12", 0.125], ["2023-10-12", 0.1529], ["2023-10-12", 0.1464], ["2023-10-12", 0.1514], ["2023-10-12", 0.1413], ["2023-10-13", 0.1407], ["2023-10-13", 0.148], ["2023-10-13", 0.138], ["2023-10-13", 0.148], ["2023-10-14", 0.148], ["2023-10-14", 0.1487], ["2023-10-16", 0.138], ["2023-10-17", 0.138], ["2023-10-18", 0.1387], ["2023-10-19", 0.1387], ["2023-10-20", 0.14], ["2023-10-20", 0.1553], ["2023-10-22", 0.1273], ["2023-10-22", 0.1187], ["2023-10-22", 0.1187], ["2023-10-23", 0.118], ["2023-10-23", 0.116], ["2023-10-24", 0.1147], ["2023-10-24", 0.1147], ["2023-10-25", 0.1263], ["2023-10-25", 0.1269], ["2023-10-26", 0.125], ["2023-10-27", 0.125], ["2023-10-27", 0.1244], ["2023-10-27", 0.125], ["2023-10-28", 0.1188], ["2023-10-29", 0.1188], ["2023-10-29", 0.1294], ["2023-10-30", 0.1294], ["2023-11-01", 0.1324], ["2023-11-02", 0.1324], ["2023-11-02", 0.1318], ["2023-11-02", 0.13], ["2023-11-02", 0.1135], ["2023-11-02", 0.1112], ["2023-11-02", 0.1082], ["2023-11-02", 0.1082], ["2023-11-03", 0.1076], ["2023-11-04", 0.1076], ["2023-11-04", 0.1059], ["2023-11-05", 0.0829], ["2023-11-05", 0.0794], ["2023-11-05", 0.0956], ["2023-11-05", 0.0956], ["2023-11-05", 0.0811], ["2023-11-05", 0.0811], ["2023-11-06", 0.0811], ["2023-11-06", 0.08], ["2023-11-07", 0.0811], ["2023-11-07", 0.0811], ["2023-11-08", 0.08], ["2023-11-08", 0.0772], ["2023-11-08", 0.075], ["2023-11-08", 0.0811], ["2023-11-09", 0.0822], ["2023-11-09", 0.0822], ["2023-11-11", 0.0856], ["2023-11-12", 0.0856], ["2023-11-12", 0.1383], ["2023-11-12", 0.1339], ["2023-11-12", 0.1389], ["2023-11-12", 0.1428], ["2023-11-13", 0.1428], ["2023-11-13", 0.1433], ["2023-11-15", 0.1437], ["2023-11-16", 0.1437], ["2023-11-16", 0.1268], ["2023-11-17", 0.1242], ["2023-11-17", 0.12], ["2023-11-17", 0.1205], ["2023-11-18", 0.1216], ["2023-11-19", 0.1258], ["2023-11-19", 0.1279], ["2023-11-20", 0.1279], ["2023-11-20", 0.1274], ["2023-11-20", 0.1253], ["2023-11-22", 0.1253], ["2023-11-22", 0.1253], ["2023-11-22", 0.1253], ["2023-11-25", 0.1253], ["2023-11-25", 0.122], ["2023-11-25", 0.1205], ["2023-11-26", 0.1205], ["2023-11-26", 0.1185], ["2023-11-26", 0.1185], ["2023-11-27", 0.1205], ["2023-11-27", 0.083], ["2023-11-27", 0.083], ["2023-11-27", 0.0835], ["2023-11-27", 0.077], ["2023-11-30", 0.072], ["2023-12-01", 0.0685], ["2023-12-01", 0.0685], ["2023-12-02", 0.0685], ["2023-12-03", 0.0685], ["2023-12-03", 0.0675], ["2023-12-03", 0.0675], ["2023-12-03", 0.0655], ["2023-12-03", 0.0605], ["2023-12-05", 0.063], ["2023-12-05", 0.0615], ["2023-12-07", 0.0635], ["2023-12-07", 0.0635], ["2023-12-07", 0.063], ["2023-12-08", 0.063], ["2023-12-08", 0.058], ["2023-12-09", 0.058], ["2023-12-10", 0.0575], ["2023-12-11", 0.056], ["2023-12-11", 0.056], ["2023-12-11", 0.056], ["2023-12-12", 0.056], ["2023-12-12", 0.0535], ["2023-12-12", 0.0535], ["2023-12-13", 0.0485], ["2023-12-13", 0.036], ["2023-12-13", 0.0767], ["2023-12-14", 0.0767], ["2023-12-14", 0.0762], ["2023-12-15", 0.0762], ["2023-12-18", 0.0724], ["2023-12-18", 0.0724], ["2023-12-19", 0.0719], ["2023-12-19", 0.0719], ["2023-12-20", 0.0719], ["2023-12-21", 0.0752], ["2023-12-21", 0.071], ["2023-12-21", 0.071], ["2023-12-22", 0.07], ["2023-12-25", 0.0686], ["2023-12-25", 0.0643], ["2023-12-25", 0.0643], ["2023-12-26", 0.0643], ["2023-12-26", 0.0705], ["2023-12-26", 0.0814], ["2023-12-27", 0.08], ["2023-12-27", 0.08], ["2023-12-27", 0.0765], ["2023-12-27", 0.0765], ["2023-12-28", 0.0765], ["2023-12-29", 0.0761], ["2023-12-30", 0.0743], ["2023-12-30", 0.0765], ["2023-12-30", 0.0761], ["2024-01-01", 0.0938], ["2024-01-02", 0.0925], ["2024-01-03", 0.0925], ["2024-01-03", 0.0925], ["2024-01-04", 0.095], ["2024-01-05", 0.095], ["2024-01-05", 0.0975], ["2024-01-05", 0.06], ["2024-01-05", 0.0596], ["2024-01-07", 0.0612], ["2024-01-08", 0.0604], ["2024-01-08", 0.06], ["2024-01-09", 0.0592], ["2024-01-09", 0.056], ["2024-01-10", 0.056], ["2024-01-10", 0.056], ["2024-01-10", 0.056], ["2024-01-10", 0.056], ["2024-01-11", 0.056], ["2024-01-12", 0.0912], ["2024-01-12", 0.055], ["2024-01-12", 0.0538], ["2024-01-12", 0.0538], ["2024-01-12", 0.0538]] | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakhmut", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-forces-could-fail-retake-strategic-city-melitopol-us-official-2023-08-18/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokmak", "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index/", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/by-the-numbers-heres-how-turmoil-in-congress-could-impact-us-aid-to-ukraine/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_engagements_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine?wprov=sfla1", "https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/ukraine-official-says-it-cant-properly-use-its-western-kit-because-it-has-so-few-soldiers-left-report-says/articleshow/104864630.cms", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/08/1204545803/turmoil-in-congress-could-affect-the-future-of-ukraines-military-offensive", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-elastic-defense-counteroffensive.html", "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-netherlands-us-spearhead-creation-future-ukraine-air-force-2023-10-11/", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86#:~:text=Radakin%20suggested%20the%20war%20could,win%20wars%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said", "https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melitopol"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3206 |
<p>The DEA is reportedly "conducting its review" of whether to reschedule marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act, currently designated Schedule I (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/04/dea-weed-marijuana-legal-decriminalize-federal" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12240" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href="https://vangst.com/blog/next-steps-in-cannabis-rescheduling" target="_blank">Vangst</a>, <a href="https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling" target="_blank">DEA - Drug Scheduling</a>). The question would close upon the proposed rule's publication in the Federal Register (<a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/drug-enforcement-administration" target="_blank">Federal Register</a>). Rescheduling to "Schedule III or lower" includes Schedules III, IV, V, or outright descheduling. An interim final rule would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | Will the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) publish a proposed rule that would reschedule marijuana to Schedule III or lower before 18 May 2024? | 2024-01-11 | [["2024-01-12", 0.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.285], ["2024-01-12", 0.2433], ["2024-01-12", 0.2167], ["2024-01-12", 0.2175], ["2024-01-12", 0.304], ["2024-01-12", 0.3033], ["2024-01-13", 0.4029], ["2024-01-13", 0.4029]] | ["https://www.sprycel.com/", "https://www.gleevec-hcp.com/", "https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/chronic-myelogenous-leukemia/symptoms-causes/syc-20352417#Symptoms", "https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20010528,00.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3136 | <p>As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/nuclear-testing-could-start-a-new-arms-race" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-nuclear-test-ban-9029a57a951df5f7a5039abc472c75a9" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/major-expansion-china-now-has-more-than-500-nukes-pentagon-says-00122440" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/test-ban-treaty-at-a-glance" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-dirty-bombs.html" target="_blank">Nuclear Regulatory Commission</a>). Whether China, Russia, and/or the US has detonated a nuclear device in their respective territories will be determined using credible open source reporting. A detonation by China, Russia, or the US must occur within that country's internationally recognized boundaries (including territorial waters and airspace) to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024? | 2023-11-27 | [["2023-11-27", 0.185], ["2023-11-27", 0.12], ["2023-11-27", 0.1217], ["2023-11-27", 0.0988], ["2023-11-27", 0.187], ["2023-11-27", 0.1625], ["2023-11-27", 0.1629], ["2023-11-27", 0.1653], ["2023-11-28", 0.1738], ["2023-11-28", 0.2089], ["2023-11-28", 0.1579], ["2023-11-28", 0.1438], ["2023-11-28", 0.1639], ["2023-11-28", 0.1776], ["2023-11-28", 0.1774], ["2023-11-28", 0.1993], ["2023-11-28", 0.1868], ["2023-11-28", 0.1855], ["2023-11-28", 0.1757], ["2023-11-28", 0.1678], ["2023-11-28", 0.1633], ["2023-11-28", 0.1751], ["2023-11-28", 0.1733], ["2023-11-28", 0.1693], ["2023-11-28", 0.1653], ["2023-11-28", 0.1604], ["2023-11-28", 0.1633], ["2023-11-28", 0.1582], ["2023-11-28", 0.1698], ["2023-11-28", 0.1723], ["2023-11-28", 0.1715], ["2023-11-28", 0.1714], ["2023-11-28", 0.1685], ["2023-11-28", 0.1661], ["2023-11-29", 0.1668], ["2023-11-29", 0.1639], ["2023-11-29", 0.1621], ["2023-11-29", 0.1647], ["2023-11-29", 0.1641], ["2023-11-29", 0.1606], ["2023-11-29", 0.1632], ["2023-11-29", 0.1595], ["2023-11-29", 0.1584], ["2023-11-29", 0.155], ["2023-11-29", 0.1553], ["2023-11-29", 0.154], ["2023-11-29", 0.1536], ["2023-11-29", 0.152], ["2023-11-29", 0.1502], ["2023-11-29", 0.148], ["2023-11-29", 0.1466], ["2023-11-29", 0.1552], ["2023-11-30", 0.1527], ["2023-11-30", 0.1498], ["2023-11-30", 0.1477], ["2023-11-30", 0.146], ["2023-11-30", 0.147], ["2023-11-30", 0.1462], ["2023-11-30", 0.1473], ["2023-12-01", 0.1492], ["2023-12-01", 0.1432], ["2023-12-01", 0.1316], ["2023-12-01", 0.1456], ["2023-12-01", 0.1466], ["2023-12-01", 0.133], ["2023-12-01", 0.1297], ["2023-12-02", 0.1281], ["2023-12-02", 0.1257], ["2023-12-02", 0.1258], ["2023-12-02", 0.128], ["2023-12-02", 0.1262], ["2023-12-02", 0.123], ["2023-12-03", 0.1312], ["2023-12-03", 0.1277], ["2023-12-03", 0.1226], ["2023-12-03", 0.1207], ["2023-12-03", 0.1226], ["2023-12-03", 0.1235], ["2023-12-03", 0.1304], ["2023-12-03", 0.1309], ["2023-12-04", 0.1346], ["2023-12-04", 0.1328], ["2023-12-04", 0.1202], ["2023-12-04", 0.1157], ["2023-12-04", 0.1151], ["2023-12-04", 0.1172], ["2023-12-04", 0.1233], ["2023-12-04", 0.1323], ["2023-12-05", 0.1316], ["2023-12-05", 0.1369], ["2023-12-05", 0.1438], ["2023-12-05", 0.1388], ["2023-12-05", 0.1365], ["2023-12-05", 0.1371], ["2023-12-05", 0.1358], ["2023-12-05", 0.1379], ["2023-12-06", 0.1373], ["2023-12-06", 0.1372], ["2023-12-06", 0.1401], ["2023-12-06", 0.1386], ["2023-12-07", 0.1366], ["2023-12-07", 0.1267], ["2023-12-07", 0.1263], ["2023-12-07", 0.1262], ["2023-12-07", 0.1258], ["2023-12-08", 0.1243], ["2023-12-08", 0.1227], ["2023-12-08", 0.1285], ["2023-12-08", 0.1274], ["2023-12-10", 0.1391], ["2023-12-10", 0.142], ["2023-12-10", 0.1463], ["2023-12-10", 0.1444], ["2023-12-10", 0.1436], ["2023-12-10", 0.1419], ["2023-12-11", 0.1522], ["2023-12-11", 0.1445], ["2023-12-11", 0.1519], ["2023-12-12", 0.1657], ["2023-12-12", 0.1711], ["2023-12-12", 0.1684], ["2023-12-12", 0.1667], ["2023-12-12", 0.1649], ["2023-12-12", 0.1639], ["2023-12-13", 0.1607], ["2023-12-13", 0.158], ["2023-12-13", 0.1623], ["2023-12-13", 0.167], ["2023-12-13", 0.1667], ["2023-12-14", 0.1718], ["2023-12-14", 0.1694], ["2023-12-14", 0.1735], ["2023-12-14", 0.175], ["2023-12-15", 0.1741], ["2023-12-15", 0.1722], ["2023-12-15", 0.1743], ["2023-12-16", 0.1707], ["2023-12-16", 0.1671], ["2023-12-17", 0.1676], ["2023-12-17", 0.176], ["2023-12-17", 0.1797], ["2023-12-17", 0.1795], ["2023-12-18", 0.1765], ["2023-12-18", 0.1744], ["2023-12-18", 0.1804], ["2023-12-18", 0.1804], ["2023-12-18", 0.1816], ["2023-12-18", 0.1814], ["2023-12-18", 0.1764], ["2023-12-18", 0.1833], ["2023-12-19", 0.1815], ["2023-12-19", 0.1818], ["2023-12-19", 0.1787], ["2023-12-19", 0.1772], ["2023-12-19", 0.1763], ["2023-12-20", 0.181], ["2023-12-20", 0.1818], ["2023-12-20", 0.1821], ["2023-12-20", 0.1825], ["2023-12-20", 0.1869], ["2023-12-20", 0.1885], ["2023-12-21", 0.1886], ["2023-12-21", 0.1868], ["2023-12-21", 0.1863], ["2023-12-21", 0.1871], ["2023-12-21", 0.1943], ["2023-12-21", 0.1956], ["2023-12-21", 0.1969], ["2023-12-21", 0.1993], ["2023-12-22", 0.1954], ["2023-12-23", 0.1936], ["2023-12-23", 0.1963], ["2023-12-23", 0.1909], ["2023-12-24", 0.1912], ["2023-12-24", 0.1879], ["2023-12-24", 0.1878], ["2023-12-25", 0.1947], ["2023-12-25", 0.1948], ["2023-12-25", 0.1935], ["2023-12-25", 0.1935], ["2023-12-25", 0.191], ["2023-12-25", 0.1952], ["2023-12-26", 0.1962], ["2023-12-26", 0.1858], ["2023-12-26", 0.1969], ["2023-12-26", 0.1926], ["2023-12-26", 0.1943], ["2023-12-26", 0.1895], ["2023-12-26", 0.1878], ["2023-12-26", 0.1938], ["2023-12-26", 0.1994], ["2023-12-26", 0.1961], ["2023-12-27", 0.1995], ["2023-12-27", 0.207], ["2023-12-27", 0.207], ["2023-12-27", 0.2081], ["2023-12-27", 0.2141], ["2023-12-27", 0.212], ["2023-12-28", 0.2098], ["2023-12-28", 0.2085], ["2023-12-28", 0.2045], ["2023-12-29", 0.2027], ["2023-12-30", 0.2066], ["2023-12-30", 0.2133], ["2023-12-30", 0.2122], ["2023-12-30", 0.214], ["2023-12-31", 0.2054], ["2023-12-31", 0.2128], ["2023-12-31", 0.2144], ["2023-12-31", 0.2119], ["2023-12-31", 0.2088], ["2023-12-31", 0.2105], ["2023-12-31", 0.2124], ["2023-12-31", 0.2116], ["2023-12-31", 0.2145], ["2023-12-31", 0.2172], ["2024-01-01", 0.2105], ["2024-01-01", 0.2097], ["2024-01-01", 0.2107], ["2024-01-01", 0.2047], ["2024-01-01", 0.2048], ["2024-01-01", 0.2036], ["2024-01-01", 0.2023], ["2024-01-01", 0.2017], ["2024-01-02", 0.2008], ["2024-01-02", 0.1966], ["2024-01-02", 0.1946], ["2024-01-02", 0.1943], ["2024-01-02", 0.1996], ["2024-01-02", 0.2062], ["2024-01-02", 0.2], ["2024-01-02", 0.1991], ["2024-01-03", 0.1991], ["2024-01-03", 0.2004], ["2024-01-03", 0.1988], ["2024-01-03", 0.1988], ["2024-01-04", 0.1963], ["2024-01-04", 0.1963], ["2024-01-04", 0.1957], ["2024-01-04", 0.1992], ["2024-01-04", 0.1974], ["2024-01-05", 0.1928], ["2024-01-05", 0.1925], ["2024-01-05", 0.191], ["2024-01-05", 0.1919], ["2024-01-06", 0.1927], ["2024-01-06", 0.1923], ["2024-01-06", 0.1915], ["2024-01-06", 0.1887], ["2024-01-06", 0.1887], ["2024-01-06", 0.1929], ["2024-01-06", 0.1875], ["2024-01-06", 0.1919], ["2024-01-07", 0.1905], ["2024-01-07", 0.1919], ["2024-01-07", 0.1896], ["2024-01-08", 0.1897], ["2024-01-08", 0.1875], ["2024-01-08", 0.1874], ["2024-01-08", 0.188], ["2024-01-08", 0.182], ["2024-01-09", 0.1823], ["2024-01-09", 0.1815], ["2024-01-09", 0.1815], ["2024-01-10", 0.1831], ["2024-01-10", 0.183], ["2024-01-10", 0.1797], ["2024-01-10", 0.1809], ["2024-01-10", 0.1819], ["2024-01-10", 0.1782], ["2024-01-11", 0.1775], ["2024-01-11", 0.1741], ["2024-01-11", 0.1731], ["2024-01-12", 0.1731]] | ["https://www.spf.org/spf-china-observer/en/document-detail042.html", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/why-a-conventional-military-buildup-with-china-deserves-a-second-look?mc_cid=b31243ae9c&mc_eid=b21969f599", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-11/features/reducing-tensions-over-nuclear-testing-very-low-yield", "https://online.stanford.edu/courses/fsi-y0002-living-nuclear-brink-yesterday-and-today", "https://bard.google.com/chat/82830440f2646447", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/22/asia/nuclear-testing-china-russia-us-exclusive-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.38north.org/2023/12/third-successful-launch-of-north-koreas-hwasong-18-solid-icbm-probably-marks-operational-deployment/", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/20/science/china-nuclear-tests-lop-nur.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_mbe_20231221&instance_id=110679&nl=morning-briefing%3A-europe-edition", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/", "https://www.military.com/off-duty/how-one-black-bear-almost-set-off-world-war-iii-during-cold-war.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/20/science/china-nuclear-tests-lop-nur.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_mbe_20231221&instance_id=110679&nl=morning-briefing%3A-europe-edition&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=153129&te=1&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/a-nuclear-north-korea-presents-opportunity-for-global-leadership-in-a-complicated-world", "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/12/103_365057.html", "https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231213008000315", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing#:~:text=Non%2Dsignatories%20India%20and%20Pakistan,September%202017%20in%20North%20Korea", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-18", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-completing-its-section-international-nuclear-test-monitoring-2023-11-17/", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/track-2-talks-aimed-at-preventing-conflict-with-china", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/20/science/china-nuclear-tests-lop-nur.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_mbe_20231221&instance_id=110679&nl=morning-briefing%3A-europe-edition%C2%AEi_id=77825025&segment_id=153129&te=1&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/2/putin-revokes-russias-ratification-of-nuclear-test-ban-treaty", "https://armscontrolcenter.org/no-good-reason-for-nuclear-testing-part-2/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/asia/nuclear-testing-china-russia-us-exclusive-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/articles/stockpile-stewardship-and-management-plan-ssmp"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2944 | <p>Manchin has repeatedly floated the prospect that he may run for president in 2024 (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/joe-manchin-says-wont-decide-2024-end-year-rcna77813" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4033698-manchin-sidesteps-questions-on-third-party-presidential-run-not-ruling-anything-in-not-ruling-anything-out/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/21/manchin-presidential-bid-democrats-00102760" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/06/05/joe-manchin-not-ruling-out-third-party-run-for-president" target="_blank">NY1</a>). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (<a href="https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/registering-candidate/" target="_blank">FEC - Registration</a>, <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/" target="_blank">FEC - Candidates</a>). The question would close early if Manchin publicly announces that he will not run for US president in 2024.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 28 January 2024, will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024? | 2023-07-14 | [["2023-07-14", 0.43], ["2023-07-14", 0.415], ["2023-07-14", 0.3433], ["2023-07-14", 0.2825], ["2023-07-14", 0.246], ["2023-07-14", 0.2233], ["2023-07-14", 0.2271], ["2023-07-14", 0.2129], ["2023-07-14", 0.1863], ["2023-07-14", 0.2322], ["2023-07-14", 0.2278], ["2023-07-15", 0.22], ["2023-07-15", 0.2], ["2023-07-15", 0.1917], ["2023-07-15", 0.2254], ["2023-07-15", 0.2443], ["2023-07-15", 0.2436], ["2023-07-15", 0.234], ["2023-07-15", 0.2225], ["2023-07-16", 0.2629], ["2023-07-16", 0.2147], ["2023-07-16", 0.2194], ["2023-07-16", 0.2211], ["2023-07-16", 0.2105], ["2023-07-16", 0.2076], ["2023-07-16", 0.205], ["2023-07-16", 0.207], ["2023-07-16", 0.2067], ["2023-07-17", 0.2033], ["2023-07-17", 0.2112], ["2023-07-17", 0.2088], ["2023-07-17", 0.2011], ["2023-07-17", 0.2033], ["2023-07-17", 0.2367], ["2023-07-17", 0.2404], ["2023-07-18", 0.2463], ["2023-07-18", 0.2715], ["2023-07-18", 0.2643], ["2023-07-18", 0.241], ["2023-07-18", 0.2362], ["2023-07-19", 0.26], ["2023-07-19", 0.2511], ["2023-07-19", 0.2753], ["2023-07-19", 0.265], ["2023-07-19", 0.2718], ["2023-07-20", 0.2688], ["2023-07-21", 0.2913], ["2023-07-21", 0.2731], ["2023-07-21", 0.2794], ["2023-07-23", 0.2556], ["2023-07-23", 0.2524], ["2023-07-24", 0.2012], 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["2023-12-04", 0.1522], ["2023-12-04", 0.1522], ["2023-12-05", 0.1597], ["2023-12-06", 0.1612], ["2023-12-06", 0.1612], ["2023-12-07", 0.1606], ["2023-12-07", 0.1606], ["2023-12-08", 0.1636], ["2023-12-08", 0.1588], ["2023-12-08", 0.1582], ["2023-12-09", 0.1552], ["2023-12-09", 0.15], ["2023-12-09", 0.1439], ["2023-12-09", 0.1576], ["2023-12-10", 0.1567], ["2023-12-10", 0.1552], ["2023-12-12", 0.1552], ["2023-12-12", 0.157], ["2023-12-13", 0.1561], ["2023-12-13", 0.1555], ["2023-12-13", 0.1539], ["2023-12-13", 0.1524], ["2023-12-14", 0.1456], ["2023-12-14", 0.1397], ["2023-12-15", 0.1403], ["2023-12-15", 0.1403], ["2023-12-16", 0.1403], ["2023-12-16", 0.1359], ["2023-12-17", 0.1356], ["2023-12-18", 0.1341], ["2023-12-18", 0.1321], ["2023-12-18", 0.1315], ["2023-12-18", 0.1315], ["2023-12-18", 0.13], ["2023-12-18", 0.1212], ["2023-12-18", 0.1138], ["2023-12-18", 0.1091], ["2023-12-19", 0.1085], ["2023-12-20", 0.1085], ["2023-12-21", 0.1085], ["2023-12-21", 0.1082], ["2023-12-22", 0.1068], ["2023-12-22", 0.1068], ["2023-12-22", 0.1053], ["2023-12-22", 0.1053], ["2023-12-22", 0.1047], ["2023-12-23", 0.1044], ["2023-12-23", 0.1044], ["2023-12-23", 0.1044], ["2023-12-24", 0.1038], ["2023-12-25", 0.1038], ["2023-12-25", 0.0988], ["2023-12-26", 0.1021], ["2023-12-27", 0.0991], ["2023-12-27", 0.0991], ["2023-12-28", 0.0962], ["2023-12-29", 0.0956], ["2023-12-29", 0.0924], ["2023-12-29", 0.09], ["2023-12-30", 0.09], ["2023-12-30", 0.0874], ["2023-12-31", 0.0871], ["2023-12-31", 0.0859], ["2023-12-31", 0.0853], ["2023-12-31", 0.0871], ["2024-01-01", 0.0829], ["2024-01-01", 0.0917], ["2024-01-01", 0.0861], ["2024-01-02", 0.085], ["2024-01-02", 0.0828], ["2024-01-02", 0.0822], ["2024-01-02", 0.0817], ["2024-01-02", 0.0828], ["2024-01-02", 0.0825], ["2024-01-02", 0.0825], ["2024-01-02", 0.0831], ["2024-01-02", 0.0828], ["2024-01-02", 0.0819], ["2024-01-02", 0.0819], ["2024-01-02", 0.0797], ["2024-01-03", 0.0781], ["2024-01-03", 0.0761], ["2024-01-03", 0.0755], 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True | 2023-10-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3013 |
<p>While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-17/putin-not-pushing-belarus-to-enter-war-with-ukraine-says-lukashenko" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine" target="_blank">PBS</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560" target="_blank">BBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-21 | Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023? | 2023-09-08 | [["2023-09-11", 0.5], ["2023-09-11", 0.2575], ["2023-09-11", 0.1733], ["2023-09-11", 0.1425], ["2023-09-11", 0.117], ["2023-09-11", 0.0975], ["2023-09-11", 0.0907], ["2023-09-11", 0.0806], ["2023-09-11", 0.0776], ["2023-09-11", 0.02], ["2023-09-11", 0.024], ["2023-09-11", 0.0219], ["2023-09-11", 0.0209], ["2023-09-11", 0.0196], ["2023-09-12", 0.0181], ["2023-09-12", 0.0172], ["2023-09-12", 0.0165], ["2023-09-12", 0.0215], ["2023-09-12", 0.0165], ["2023-09-12", 0.016], ["2023-09-12", 0.0151], ["2023-09-12", 0.0144], ["2023-09-12", 0.0139], ["2023-09-12", 0.0136], ["2023-09-13", 0.0373], ["2023-09-13", 0.0416], ["2023-09-13", 0.0484], ["2023-09-13", 0.0493], ["2023-09-13", 0.0483], ["2023-09-13", 0.0486], 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0.0398], ["2023-10-16", 0.0391], ["2023-10-16", 0.0386], ["2023-10-16", 0.0375], ["2023-10-16", 0.0372], ["2023-10-16", 0.0362], ["2023-10-16", 0.0359], ["2023-10-17", 0.0354], ["2023-10-17", 0.0346], ["2023-10-17", 0.0342], ["2023-10-17", 0.0339], ["2023-10-17", 0.0324], ["2023-10-17", 0.031], ["2023-10-17", 0.0308], ["2023-10-17", 0.0308], ["2023-10-17", 0.0302], ["2023-10-17", 0.0298], ["2023-10-17", 0.0296], ["2023-10-17", 0.0297], ["2023-10-17", 0.0293], ["2023-10-17", 0.0302], ["2023-10-17", 0.03], ["2023-10-17", 0.029], ["2023-10-18", 0.028], ["2023-10-18", 0.0278], ["2023-10-18", 0.0275], ["2023-10-18", 0.0266], ["2023-10-18", 0.0258], ["2023-10-18", 0.0258], ["2023-10-18", 0.0227], ["2023-10-18", 0.0225], ["2023-10-19", 0.0239], ["2023-10-19", 0.0237], ["2023-10-19", 0.0238], ["2023-10-19", 0.0238], ["2023-10-19", 0.0261], ["2023-10-19", 0.0254], ["2023-10-19", 0.0253], ["2023-10-19", 0.0241], ["2023-10-19", 0.0238], ["2023-10-19", 0.0239], ["2023-10-20", 0.0208], ["2023-10-20", 0.0205], ["2023-10-20", 0.0202], ["2023-10-20", 0.0201], ["2023-10-20", 0.0199], ["2023-10-20", 0.02], ["2023-10-21", 0.02], ["2023-10-21", 0.02]] | ["https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine", "https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-war-in-ukraine-one-year-on-will-belarus-join-the-battlefield/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66981840", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/australia-extends-punitive-tariffs-on-imports-from-russia-belarus-for-2-years/3000380", "https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-putin-belaurs-ukraine-war/32552805.html", "https://apnews.com/article/belarus-ukraine-russia-children-2922e2fd4230fcfc94c323b842c06276", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-03/belarus-begins-army-combat-readiness-exercises", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/europe/belarus-us-pushing-russia-to-nukes-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/belarus-dictator-lukashenka-must-face-justice-for-role-in-russias-ukraine-war/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/belarus-top-diplomat-says-he-cant-imagine-his-country-entering-the-war-in-ukraine-alongside-russia", "https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/latest-news/deportation-of-ukrainian-children-must-stop-eu-says-to-belarusian-foreign-ministry/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/19/belarus-is-inching-toward-invading-ukraine/", "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/12258", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine", "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230921-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-poland-no-longer-arming-ukraine", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/07/07/ukraine-russia-conflict-why-belarus-and-lukashenko-are-in-lockstep-with-putin/4508d872-1cbf-11ee-be41-a036f4b098ec_story.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-not-pushing-belarus-enter-war-with-ukraine-says-lukashenko-2023-08-17", "https://apnews.com/article/belarus-ukraine-russia-war-nuclear-putin-lukashenko-3b3761efabdb2f641308bc0e97ac9363", "https://news.yahoo.com/lukashenko-insists-belarusians-most-peace-205700647.html", "https://apnews.com/article/belarus-russia-ukraine-united-nations-97037b259f4692e98798f36b91bdb29b", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2023", "https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/8/18/putin-not-pushing-belarus-to-join-ukraine-war-lukashenko-says", "https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3764096-military-exercises-continue-in-belarus-their-active-phase-on-september-2226-nayev.html", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/09/08/russia-withdraws-military-contingent-from-allied-belarus-a82405", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1299648/opinion-on-belarus-participating-in-russia-ukraine-war/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3076 |
<p>SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-stack-launch-rehearsal-prep-photos" target="_blank">Space.com</a>, <a href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/09/06/musk-declares-starship-is-ready-for-its-second-test-flight-following-stacking/" target="_blank">Spaceflight Now</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/18/world/spacex-testimony-senate-faa-regulations-scn/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-18 | Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024? | 2023-10-19 | [["2023-10-20", 0.7], ["2023-10-20", 0.59], ["2023-10-20", 0.4933], ["2023-10-20", 0.37], ["2023-10-21", 0.356], ["2023-10-21", 0.2967], ["2023-10-21", 0.3014], ["2023-10-21", 0.295], ["2023-10-21", 0.2963], ["2023-10-21", 0.2889], ["2023-10-21", 0.287], ["2023-10-21", 0.3518], ["2023-10-21", 0.3518], ["2023-10-22", 0.3642], ["2023-10-22", 0.3538], ["2023-10-22", 0.3585], ["2023-10-22", 0.3829], ["2023-10-22", 0.404], ["2023-10-22", 0.4038], ["2023-10-22", 0.4153], ["2023-10-22", 0.4165], ["2023-10-22", 0.4294], ["2023-10-22", 0.43], ["2023-10-23", 0.3911], ["2023-10-24", 0.4731], ["2023-10-24", 0.4318], ["2023-10-25", 0.4682], ["2023-10-25", 0.4642], ["2023-10-25", 0.46], ["2023-10-26", 0.427], ["2023-10-26", 0.427], ["2023-10-26", 0.457], ["2023-10-26", 0.447], ["2023-10-27", 0.397], ["2023-10-27", 0.4336], ["2023-10-28", 0.4182], ["2023-10-28", 0.4291], ["2023-10-29", 0.4545], ["2023-10-29", 0.4545], ["2023-10-29", 0.4627], ["2023-10-29", 0.4609], ["2023-10-30", 0.4392], ["2023-10-30", 0.4475], ["2023-10-31", 0.4725], ["2023-10-31", 0.4333], ["2023-10-31", 0.4375], ["2023-10-31", 0.4392], ["2023-10-31", 0.4475], ["2023-11-01", 0.4525], ["2023-11-01", 0.4558], ["2023-11-01", 0.4808], ["2023-11-02", 0.4731], ["2023-11-02", 0.4577], ["2023-11-02", 0.4577], ["2023-11-02", 0.4577], ["2023-11-03", 0.4723], ["2023-11-03", 0.4615], ["2023-11-03", 0.4685], ["2023-11-04", 0.47], ["2023-11-04", 0.48], ["2023-11-05", 0.48], ["2023-11-07", 0.4921], ["2023-11-07", 0.5286], ["2023-11-07", 0.5536], ["2023-11-07", 0.5614], ["2023-11-09", 0.545], ["2023-11-11", 0.55], ["2023-11-11", 0.554], ["2023-11-11", 0.5607], ["2023-11-11", 0.584], ["2023-11-11", 0.584], ["2023-11-11", 0.588], ["2023-11-12", 0.5953], ["2023-11-12", 0.5933], ["2023-11-13", 0.5953], ["2023-11-13", 0.6], ["2023-11-13", 0.5847], ["2023-11-14", 0.5747], ["2023-11-14", 0.5853], ["2023-11-15", 0.5847], ["2023-11-15", 0.5847], ["2023-11-15", 0.5867], ["2023-11-15", 0.5893], ["2023-11-15", 0.58], ["2023-11-16", 0.5833], ["2023-11-16", 0.5967], ["2023-11-16", 0.6125], ["2023-11-16", 0.6094], ["2023-11-16", 0.6438], ["2023-11-16", 0.665], ["2023-11-16", 0.6513], ["2023-11-16", 0.645], ["2023-11-16", 0.6575], ["2023-11-16", 0.67], ["2023-11-17", 0.6863], ["2023-11-17", 0.6988], ["2023-11-17", 0.7094], ["2023-11-17", 0.7047], ["2023-11-17", 0.7112], ["2023-11-18", 0.7124], ["2023-11-18", 0.7124]] | ["https://www.axios.com/2023/11/15/spacex-starship-launch-faa-license-elon-musk", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/if-the-next-starship-makes-it-through-staging-you-can-call-that-a-win/", "https://youtu.be/UiAFm79LgAE?feature=shared", "https://www.lifecycleinsights.com/where-to-put-the-x/", "https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231118-spacex-starship-set-for-new-launch-after-first-test-ended-in-explosion", "https://news.yahoo.com/review-spacex-starship-water-deluge-160000055.html", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/11/16/faa-clears-spacex-for-second-super-heavy-starship-test-flight/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/10/18/spacex-battles-regulatory-process-that-could-hold-up-starship-test-flight-for-months/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOGgpo_c08c", "https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review", "https://www.space.com/china-launches-shenzhou-17-crew-tiangong", "https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nasa-tensions-with-spacex-rise-over-moon-mission-delays", "https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1725879726479450297?t=a-x7YP_HnRzmPVKD_INJeQ&s=19", "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-booster-9-hot-staging-photos", "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-second-test-flight-launch-explodes", "https://wccftech.com/spacex-pumps-starship-with-enough-fuel-to-send-it-to-space/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2961 | <p>Former President Trump announced in November 2022 that he was running for president amid a slew of legal troubles (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-11-15/trump-to-launch-new-white-house-bid-while-his-party-licks-its-wounds" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Trump no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Donald Trump cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president before 15 January 2024? | 2023-07-28 | [["2023-07-28", 0.06], ["2023-07-28", 0.04], ["2023-07-28", 0.1683], ["2023-07-28", 0.135], ["2023-07-28", 0.114], ["2023-07-28", 0.0983], ["2023-07-28", 0.0964], ["2023-07-29", 0.0963], ["2023-07-29", 0.0861], ["2023-07-29", 0.0885], ["2023-07-29", 0.0895], ["2023-07-29", 0.1274], ["2023-07-29", 0.1232], ["2023-07-29", 0.1715], ["2023-07-30", 0.1675], ["2023-07-30", 0.1713], ["2023-07-30", 0.161], ["2023-07-30", 0.1552], ["2023-07-30", 0.1521], ["2023-07-30", 0.1453], ["2023-07-30", 0.1403], ["2023-07-30", 0.1545], ["2023-07-31", 0.1505], ["2023-07-31", 0.1502], ["2023-07-31", 0.1582], ["2023-07-31", 0.1505], ["2023-07-31", 0.1527], ["2023-07-31", 0.1514], ["2023-07-31", 0.1668], ["2023-08-01", 0.1713], ["2023-08-01", 0.1808], ["2023-08-01", 0.1787], ["2023-08-01", 0.1777], ["2023-08-01", 0.1724], ["2023-08-01", 0.1618], ["2023-08-02", 0.1387], ["2023-08-02", 0.1329], ["2023-08-02", 0.1303], ["2023-08-02", 0.1388], ["2023-08-02", 0.1378], ["2023-08-02", 0.1363], ["2023-08-03", 0.1344], ["2023-08-03", 0.1338], ["2023-08-03", 0.1361], ["2023-08-03", 0.1274], ["2023-08-04", 0.1283], ["2023-08-04", 0.109], ["2023-08-04", 0.11], ["2023-08-04", 0.1128], ["2023-08-05", 0.1081], ["2023-08-05", 0.1124], ["2023-08-06", 0.1068], ["2023-08-06", 0.1106], ["2023-08-07", 0.1071], ["2023-08-07", 0.1171], ["2023-08-07", 0.09], ["2023-08-07", 0.0989], ["2023-08-08", 0.0989], ["2023-08-09", 0.0972], ["2023-08-10", 0.1022], ["2023-08-11", 0.1], ["2023-08-11", 0.1014], ["2023-08-13", 0.1003], ["2023-08-13", 0.0992], ["2023-08-15", 0.0987], ["2023-08-16", 0.0926], ["2023-08-17", 0.0982], ["2023-08-17", 0.0982], ["2023-08-18", 0.102], ["2023-08-19", 0.1043], ["2023-08-21", 0.103], ["2023-08-21", 0.105], ["2023-08-21", 0.1146], ["2023-08-23", 0.1171], ["2023-08-25", 0.1185], ["2023-08-26", 0.1157], ["2023-08-27", 0.1155], ["2023-08-27", 0.1069], ["2023-08-28", 0.1174], ["2023-08-29", 0.1133], ["2023-08-29", 0.1079], ["2023-08-29", 0.1072], ["2023-08-30", 0.1055], ["2023-08-30", 0.105], ["2023-08-31", 0.103], ["2023-08-31", 0.092], ["2023-09-02", 0.0898], ["2023-09-02", 0.0833], ["2023-09-03", 0.0831], ["2023-09-04", 0.08], ["2023-09-04", 0.0735], ["2023-09-05", 0.0722], ["2023-09-06", 0.0724], ["2023-09-06", 0.0724], ["2023-09-06", 0.0726], ["2023-09-07", 0.0811], ["2023-09-07", 0.0789], ["2023-09-08", 0.0774], ["2023-09-10", 0.0751], ["2023-09-11", 0.0751], ["2023-09-11", 0.079], ["2023-09-12", 0.0735], ["2023-09-12", 0.0735], ["2023-09-12", 0.0735], ["2023-09-13", 0.0708], ["2023-09-14", 0.07], ["2023-09-14", 0.0657], ["2023-09-17", 0.0664], ["2023-09-17", 0.0646], ["2023-09-19", 0.0664], ["2023-09-20", 0.078], ["2023-09-20", 0.0812], ["2023-09-21", 0.0812], ["2023-09-22", 0.0822], ["2023-09-23", 0.0818], ["2023-09-23", 0.0808], ["2023-09-24", 0.0802], ["2023-09-25", 0.0804], ["2023-09-26", 0.0756], ["2023-09-27", 0.0756], ["2023-09-28", 0.0745], ["2023-09-28", 0.0743], ["2023-09-29", 0.0798], ["2023-09-30", 0.0807], ["2023-09-30", 0.0807], ["2023-10-01", 0.0813], ["2023-10-02", 0.0813], ["2023-10-03", 0.0902], ["2023-10-05", 0.0956], ["2023-10-06", 0.0984], ["2023-10-07", 0.0991], ["2023-10-08", 0.0989], ["2023-10-11", 0.0989], ["2023-10-11", 0.0996], ["2023-10-12", 0.1014], ["2023-10-13", 0.1012], ["2023-10-14", 0.1175], ["2023-10-15", 0.1079], ["2023-10-16", 0.1079], ["2023-10-16", 0.1079], ["2023-10-17", 0.0929], ["2023-10-17", 0.0926], ["2023-10-17", 0.0926], ["2023-10-18", 0.0926], ["2023-10-19", 0.0954], ["2023-10-20", 0.0934], ["2023-10-21", 0.0934], ["2023-10-22", 0.0929], ["2023-10-22", 0.0934], ["2023-10-23", 0.0931], ["2023-10-24", 0.0917], ["2023-10-24", 0.0918], ["2023-10-25", 0.0902], ["2023-10-25", 0.0883], ["2023-10-25", 0.0853], ["2023-10-26", 0.0802], ["2023-10-26", 0.08], ["2023-10-26", 0.0787], ["2023-10-26", 0.0784], ["2023-10-26", 0.0787], ["2023-10-27", 0.0785], ["2023-10-27", 0.0797], ["2023-10-27", 0.0808], ["2023-10-28", 0.0826], ["2023-10-29", 0.0824], ["2023-10-29", 0.0755], ["2023-10-30", 0.074], ["2023-10-30", 0.074], ["2023-10-30", 0.0737], ["2023-10-31", 0.0792], ["2023-10-31", 0.0786], ["2023-11-01", 0.0841], ["2023-11-01", 0.0854], ["2023-11-02", 0.0861], ["2023-11-02", 0.0861], ["2023-11-03", 0.0861], ["2023-11-04", 0.0853], ["2023-11-05", 0.085], ["2023-11-05", 0.0845], ["2023-11-06", 0.0834], ["2023-11-06", 0.0833], ["2023-11-06", 0.0831], ["2023-11-08", 0.083], ["2023-11-08", 0.0828], ["2023-11-09", 0.0812], ["2023-11-09", 0.0811], ["2023-11-09", 0.0823], ["2023-11-11", 0.0823], ["2023-11-11", 0.0825], ["2023-11-12", 0.0814], ["2023-11-12", 0.0774], ["2023-11-13", 0.0821], ["2023-11-13", 0.0821], ["2023-11-14", 0.0947], ["2023-11-14", 0.0921], ["2023-11-15", 0.0875], ["2023-11-15", 0.0901], ["2023-11-15", 0.0867], ["2023-11-16", 0.0831], ["2023-11-17", 0.0818], ["2023-11-18", 0.0807], ["2023-11-19", 0.0791], ["2023-11-20", 0.0791], ["2023-11-22", 0.0758], ["2023-11-22", 0.0754], ["2023-11-22", 0.0754], ["2023-11-22", 0.0769], ["2023-11-23", 0.0851], ["2023-11-23", 0.0824], ["2023-11-24", 0.0824], ["2023-11-25", 0.0849], ["2023-11-26", 0.0857], ["2023-11-26", 0.0857], ["2023-11-27", 0.0825], ["2023-11-27", 0.0864], ["2023-11-27", 0.0864], ["2023-11-28", 0.0868], ["2023-11-29", 0.0868], ["2023-11-29", 0.0899], ["2023-11-29", 0.0933], ["2023-11-30", 0.0921], ["2023-12-01", 0.0919], ["2023-12-02", 0.0909], ["2023-12-03", 0.0946], ["2023-12-03", 0.0934], ["2023-12-04", 0.0931], ["2023-12-04", 0.0932], ["2023-12-05", 0.0929], ["2023-12-06", 0.0929], ["2023-12-06", 0.0929], ["2023-12-07", 0.0913], ["2023-12-07", 0.0912], ["2023-12-07", 0.0911], ["2023-12-08", 0.0909], ["2023-12-08", 0.0883], ["2023-12-09", 0.087], ["2023-12-10", 0.087], ["2023-12-10", 0.0845], ["2023-12-12", 0.0845], ["2023-12-12", 0.0846], ["2023-12-12", 0.0841], ["2023-12-14", 0.0813], ["2023-12-14", 0.0812], ["2023-12-14", 0.0804], ["2023-12-15", 0.0816], ["2023-12-15", 0.0753], ["2023-12-15", 0.0745], ["2023-12-18", 0.0745], ["2023-12-18", 0.0745], ["2023-12-19", 0.0731], ["2023-12-20", 0.0753], ["2023-12-20", 0.0733], ["2023-12-20", 0.0727], ["2023-12-21", 0.0737], ["2023-12-21", 0.0742], ["2023-12-21", 0.0741], ["2023-12-22", 0.0732], ["2023-12-22", 0.0728], ["2023-12-23", 0.072], ["2023-12-23", 0.0718], ["2023-12-24", 0.0829], ["2023-12-25", 0.0819], ["2023-12-25", 0.0673], ["2023-12-26", 0.0673], ["2023-12-26", 0.0671], ["2023-12-26", 0.0649], ["2023-12-27", 0.0645], ["2023-12-27", 0.0643], ["2023-12-27", 0.0632], ["2023-12-27", 0.0627], ["2023-12-27", 0.0628], ["2023-12-28", 0.0628], ["2023-12-28", 0.0624], ["2023-12-29", 0.0599], ["2023-12-29", 0.0531], ["2023-12-29", 0.0533], ["2023-12-30", 0.0527], ["2023-12-31", 0.05], ["2023-12-31", 0.0484], ["2023-12-31", 0.0478], ["2024-01-01", 0.059], ["2024-01-01", 0.0589], ["2024-01-02", 0.054], ["2024-01-02", 0.0501], ["2024-01-02", 0.0498], ["2024-01-02", 0.0493], ["2024-01-02", 0.0488], ["2024-01-02", 0.051], ["2024-01-03", 0.0504], ["2024-01-03", 0.0497], ["2024-01-03", 0.0493], ["2024-01-04", 0.0492], ["2024-01-04", 0.0488], ["2024-01-05", 0.051], ["2024-01-05", 0.0499], ["2024-01-05", 0.05], ["2024-01-05", 0.0462], ["2024-01-06", 0.0461], ["2024-01-06", 0.0461], ["2024-01-06", 0.0459], ["2024-01-06", 0.0468], ["2024-01-06", 0.0456], ["2024-01-06", 0.0456], ["2024-01-07", 0.0455], ["2024-01-07", 0.0452], ["2024-01-08", 0.0448], ["2024-01-08", 0.0439], ["2024-01-08", 0.0426], ["2024-01-08", 0.0424], ["2024-01-08", 0.0425], ["2024-01-08", 0.0426], ["2024-01-08", 0.0409], ["2024-01-08", 0.0407], ["2024-01-09", 0.0404], ["2024-01-09", 0.0403], ["2024-01-10", 0.0403], ["2024-01-10", 0.0397], ["2024-01-10", 0.0392], ["2024-01-10", 0.0383], ["2024-01-11", 0.0383], ["2024-01-11", 0.0381], ["2024-01-11", 0.0355], ["2024-01-12", 0.0346], ["2024-01-12", 0.0344], ["2024-01-12", 0.034], ["2024-01-12", 0.0339], ["2024-01-13", 0.0374]] | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/25/disqualify-trump-14th-amendment/", "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2023-national-poll-trump-making-inroads-with-young-voters-against-biden-maintains-majority-support-in-republican-primary/", "https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/donald-trump-mitangeklagter-bei-prozess-in-georgia-bekennt-sich-schuldig-a-165f860d-e1cd-493e-9a12-4a46cf02e7c9", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23931444/8-23-ia-and-nh-maga-survey-memo-1.pdf", "https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/28/koch-network-endorses-nikki-haley-in-bid-to-push-g-o-p-past-trump/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/trump-beefs-up-iowa-campaign-as-desantis-goes-all-in-on-caucus", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/politics/donald-trump-south-carolina-skip-debate/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FryExpC-fS4", "https://www.npr.org/2023/12/02/1216400324/gop-republican-primary-delegates-trump-trials", "https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/presidential-candidates", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inherit_the_Wind_(1960_film", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/milwaukee-rnc-presidential-debate-candidates/index.html", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24210931/horseraceip-methodology-1.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/us/politics/trump-14th-amendment.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/13/opinions/trumps-mental-gaffes-obeidallah/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/biden-would-lose-in-match-up-vs-trump-according-to-cnbc-survey-israel-funding-has-strong-support.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/01/03/trump-desantis-haley-iowa/", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/powerful-argument-trump-disqualified-presidency-14th-amendment-kaine/story?id=102886037", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/21/politics/trump-critics-appeal-colorado-ruling/index.html", "https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4198350-does-the-constitution-disqualify-trump-from-running-for-president/#:~:text=Even%20if%20Donald%20Trump%20is,president%20of%20the%20United%20States", "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24095562-horseraceip-methodology#:~:text=Donald,43", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/trump-leads-biden-in-key-us-states-as-voters-worry-about-economy-poll", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/us/politics/trump-delegate-strategy.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3151 | <p>Prime Minister Kishida was reportedly considering seeking the dissolution of the House of Representatives to call early elections, but he has thus far declined to do so (<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/10/02/japan/politics/snap-election-november-december/" target="_blank">Japan Times</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/japan-unpopular-premier-drops-idea-003528213.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/japan-kishida-finance-tax-scandal-cabinet-resignation-7e45e9124ed05a8afbd72469e985a719" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html" target="_blank">Japan PM Office - Japan Constitution</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will the Japanese House of Representatives be dissolved before 5 June 2024? | 2023-12-04 | [["2023-12-04", 1.0], ["2023-12-04", 0.625], ["2023-12-04", 0.4667], ["2023-12-04", 0.4], ["2023-12-04", 0.46], ["2023-12-04", 0.4183], ["2023-12-04", 0.3943], ["2023-12-04", 0.37], ["2023-12-04", 0.3578], ["2023-12-05", 0.322], ["2023-12-05", 0.3218], ["2023-12-05", 0.295], ["2023-12-05", 0.2992], ["2023-12-05", 0.2954], ["2023-12-05", 0.3207], ["2023-12-05", 0.3573], ["2023-12-06", 0.3519], ["2023-12-07", 0.3453], ["2023-12-07", 0.3594], ["2023-12-08", 0.384], ["2023-12-08", 0.395], ["2023-12-08", 0.41], ["2023-12-08", 0.43], ["2023-12-09", 0.413], ["2023-12-09", 0.378], ["2023-12-09", 0.322], ["2023-12-10", 0.315], ["2023-12-12", 0.316], ["2023-12-12", 0.306], ["2023-12-13", 0.306], ["2023-12-13", 0.2964], ["2023-12-13", 0.2964], ["2023-12-14", 0.3327], ["2023-12-16", 0.3309], ["2023-12-17", 0.3225], ["2023-12-17", 0.3025], ["2023-12-17", 0.315], ["2023-12-17", 0.3415], ["2023-12-18", 0.3854], ["2023-12-18", 0.3854], ["2023-12-21", 0.3721], ["2023-12-21", 0.3721], ["2023-12-23", 0.3736], ["2023-12-25", 0.3886], ["2023-12-26", 0.3879], ["2023-12-26", 0.395], ["2023-12-26", 0.3807], ["2023-12-27", 0.3713], ["2023-12-31", 0.358], ["2024-01-01", 0.3513], ["2024-01-03", 0.3507], ["2024-01-04", 0.3288], ["2024-01-04", 0.3256], ["2024-01-05", 0.2969], ["2024-01-05", 0.2856], ["2024-01-06", 0.2825], ["2024-01-08", 0.28], ["2024-01-11", 0.2756], ["2024-01-11", 0.275], ["2024-01-12", 0.2488], ["2024-01-12", 0.2488]] | ["https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/10/ac20ff76b8a7-focus-after-2-years-in-office-japan-pm-may-call-snap-election-soon.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_(Japan"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3022 | <p>As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (<a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/" target="_blank">Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-21/trump-faces-200-000-bond-order-not-to-make-threats-in-georgia-election-case" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/08/trump-on-possible-gag-order-pound-sand-00110357" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/special-counsel-asks-narrow-gag-order-trump-election-interference-case-rcna105365" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gag_order" target="_blank">Cornell - Gag Order</a>). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/contempt_of_court" target="_blank">Cornell - Contempt of Court</a>). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-02-14/judge-upholds-donald-trump-contempt-order-sanctions-in-new-york-civil-probe" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Between 22 September 2023 and 14 January 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant? | 2023-09-21 | [["2023-09-22", 0.0], ["2023-09-22", 0.01], ["2023-09-22", 0.0567], ["2023-09-22", 0.0925], ["2023-09-22", 0.055], ["2023-09-22", 0.084], ["2023-09-22", 0.14], ["2023-09-22", 0.1383], ["2023-09-23", 0.1186], ["2023-09-23", 0.1038], ["2023-09-23", 0.0922], ["2023-09-23", 0.0922], ["2023-09-23", 0.1022], ["2023-09-23", 0.0922], ["2023-09-23", 0.085], ["2023-09-23", 0.0818], ["2023-09-23", 0.0833], ["2023-09-23", 0.0846], ["2023-09-23", 0.0857], ["2023-09-23", 0.0843], ["2023-09-23", 0.1453], ["2023-09-24", 0.1838], ["2023-09-24", 0.1788], ["2023-09-24", 0.1818], ["2023-09-24", 0.1856], ["2023-09-24", 0.2021], ["2023-09-25", 0.2021], ["2023-09-25", 0.2047], ["2023-09-25", 0.195], ["2023-09-26", 0.2353], ["2023-09-26", 0.2581], ["2023-09-26", 0.2675], ["2023-09-26", 0.2518], ["2023-09-26", 0.2794], ["2023-09-26", 0.2753], ["2023-09-26", 0.3058], ["2023-09-26", 0.3228], ["2023-09-26", 0.3321], ["2023-09-26", 0.348], ["2023-09-27", 0.3453], ["2023-09-27", 0.3447], ["2023-09-27", 0.3553], ["2023-09-27", 0.35], ["2023-09-27", 0.3552], ["2023-09-27", 0.3538], ["2023-09-27", 0.3271], ["2023-09-27", 0.3395], ["2023-09-27", 0.3365], ["2023-09-27", 0.3591], ["2023-09-27", 0.3692], ["2023-09-27", 0.3544], ["2023-09-27", 0.3792], ["2023-09-27", 0.3859], ["2023-09-27", 0.3721], ["2023-09-27", 0.3903], ["2023-09-27", 0.4023], ["2023-09-27", 0.3942], ["2023-09-27", 0.3975], ["2023-09-27", 0.4082], ["2023-09-27", 0.3976], ["2023-09-27", 0.4265], ["2023-09-27", 0.4429], ["2023-09-27", 0.4529], ["2023-09-27", 0.4568], ["2023-09-27", 0.4611], ["2023-09-27", 0.4622], ["2023-09-28", 0.4727], ["2023-09-28", 0.4853], ["2023-09-28", 0.4882], ["2023-09-28", 0.4892], ["2023-09-28", 0.4767], ["2023-09-28", 0.4772], ["2023-09-28", 0.4769], ["2023-09-28", 0.465], ["2023-09-28", 0.4649], ["2023-09-28", 0.461], ["2023-09-28", 0.4633], ["2023-09-28", 0.4653], ["2023-09-29", 0.4771], ["2023-09-29", 0.481], ["2023-09-30", 0.4838], ["2023-10-01", 0.4708], ["2023-10-02", 0.46], ["2023-10-02", 0.4717], ["2023-10-03", 0.4492], ["2023-10-03", 0.4575], ["2023-10-03", 0.4646], ["2023-10-03", 0.4813], ["2023-10-03", 0.4896], ["2023-10-04", 0.4792], ["2023-10-04", 0.486], ["2023-10-04", 0.5108], ["2023-10-04", 0.4956], ["2023-10-05", 0.4716], ["2023-10-05", 0.462], ["2023-10-05", 0.4652], ["2023-10-05", 0.4668], ["2023-10-05", 0.4644], ["2023-10-05", 0.4658], ["2023-10-06", 0.4735], ["2023-10-06", 0.4762], ["2023-10-06", 0.4781], ["2023-10-08", 0.4781], ["2023-10-08", 0.4762], ["2023-10-10", 0.4723], ["2023-10-10", 0.48], ["2023-10-10", 0.4665], ["2023-10-10", 0.43], ["2023-10-10", 0.4319], ["2023-10-11", 0.4323], ["2023-10-12", 0.4704], ["2023-10-12", 0.4715], ["2023-10-13", 0.4892], ["2023-10-14", 0.4723], ["2023-10-14", 0.4719], ["2023-10-16", 0.4723], ["2023-10-16", 0.4715], ["2023-10-16", 0.4723], ["2023-10-16", 0.4685], ["2023-10-17", 0.4665], ["2023-10-17", 0.4704], ["2023-10-18", 0.4742], ["2023-10-19", 0.475], ["2023-10-20", 0.4723], ["2023-10-20", 0.4719], ["2023-10-20", 0.4719], ["2023-10-20", 0.48], ["2023-10-20", 0.4896], ["2023-10-20", 0.4992], ["2023-10-21", 0.5019], ["2023-10-21", 0.5096], ["2023-10-21", 0.5192], ["2023-10-21", 0.5327], ["2023-10-21", 0.5285], ["2023-10-21", 0.5208], ["2023-10-21", 0.5092], ["2023-10-21", 0.51], ["2023-10-21", 0.5112], ["2023-10-22", 0.5092], ["2023-10-22", 0.5054], ["2023-10-22", 0.4938], ["2023-10-22", 0.4977], ["2023-10-23", 0.5054], ["2023-10-24", 0.5035], ["2023-10-25", 0.5023], ["2023-10-25", 0.5054], ["2023-10-25", 0.5073], ["2023-10-25", 0.5112], ["2023-10-25", 0.5144], ["2023-10-25", 0.52], ["2023-10-25", 0.5189], ["2023-10-25", 0.5185], ["2023-10-26", 0.5185], ["2023-10-26", 0.5207], ["2023-10-28", 0.5148], ["2023-10-28", 0.5093], ["2023-10-28", 0.5093], ["2023-10-28", 0.5096], ["2023-10-29", 0.5081], ["2023-10-30", 0.5233], ["2023-10-30", 0.5244], ["2023-10-31", 0.5244], ["2023-10-31", 0.5259], ["2023-10-31", 0.5267], ["2023-10-31", 0.5252], ["2023-10-31", 0.5281], ["2023-11-01", 0.5481], ["2023-11-01", 0.5519], ["2023-11-01", 0.5552], ["2023-11-02", 0.5626], ["2023-11-05", 0.5746], ["2023-11-05", 0.5764], ["2023-11-05", 0.5782], ["2023-11-05", 0.5746], ["2023-11-05", 0.5746], ["2023-11-06", 0.5782], ["2023-11-07", 0.5804], ["2023-11-07", 0.5679], ["2023-11-07", 0.5672], ["2023-11-08", 0.5672], ["2023-11-08", 0.5679], ["2023-11-10", 0.5645], ["2023-11-11", 0.5721], ["2023-11-11", 0.5541], ["2023-11-11", 0.5541], ["2023-11-11", 0.5876], ["2023-11-12", 0.586], ["2023-11-12", 0.5747], ["2023-11-12", 0.5747], ["2023-11-13", 0.5747], ["2023-11-13", 0.5827], ["2023-11-14", 0.5827], ["2023-11-14", 0.58], ["2023-11-14", 0.5733], ["2023-11-14", 0.572], ["2023-11-15", 0.5723], ["2023-11-16", 0.5683], ["2023-11-16", 0.555], ["2023-11-16", 0.5567], ["2023-11-17", 0.555], ["2023-11-17", 0.5581], ["2023-11-17", 0.5577], ["2023-11-17", 0.5529], ["2023-11-17", 0.5465], ["2023-11-17", 0.5368], ["2023-11-18", 0.5348], ["2023-11-18", 0.5345], ["2023-11-18", 0.5239], ["2023-11-18", 0.5206], ["2023-11-18", 0.5174], ["2023-11-19", 0.5094], ["2023-11-19", 0.5068], ["2023-11-20", 0.5065], ["2023-11-20", 0.5091], ["2023-11-21", 0.5028], ["2023-11-21", 0.4997], ["2023-11-21", 0.4978], ["2023-11-21", 0.4975], ["2023-11-21", 0.4975], ["2023-11-22", 0.4972], ["2023-11-23", 0.4972], ["2023-11-23", 0.4972], ["2023-11-24", 0.4972], ["2023-11-24", 0.5013], ["2023-11-25", 0.4872], ["2023-11-25", 0.4873], ["2023-11-25", 0.4827], ["2023-11-25", 0.4809], ["2023-11-26", 0.4761], ["2023-11-26", 0.4761], ["2023-11-26", 0.473], ["2023-11-26", 0.4697], ["2023-11-26", 0.4697], ["2023-11-26", 0.4697], ["2023-11-27", 0.4697], ["2023-11-27", 0.4697], ["2023-11-28", 0.4688], ["2023-11-29", 0.4582], ["2023-11-29", 0.4479], ["2023-11-30", 0.4464], ["2023-11-30", 0.4524], ["2023-11-30", 0.4524], ["2023-12-01", 0.4521], ["2023-12-03", 0.4521], ["2023-12-03", 0.4497], ["2023-12-03", 0.4497], ["2023-12-04", 0.4606], ["2023-12-05", 0.4562], ["2023-12-06", 0.4562], ["2023-12-06", 0.4503], ["2023-12-06", 0.4532], ["2023-12-07", 0.4532], ["2023-12-07", 0.45], ["2023-12-07", 0.4485], ["2023-12-08", 0.4465], ["2023-12-09", 0.4479], ["2023-12-09", 0.4285], ["2023-12-10", 0.4279], ["2023-12-11", 0.425], ["2023-12-12", 0.4132], ["2023-12-12", 0.4132], ["2023-12-13", 0.4103], ["2023-12-14", 0.4103], ["2023-12-14", 0.4079], ["2023-12-14", 0.4053], ["2023-12-14", 0.4047], ["2023-12-14", 0.4032], ["2023-12-15", 0.4026], ["2023-12-16", 0.4021], ["2023-12-16", 0.4021], ["2023-12-18", 0.4021], ["2023-12-18", 0.4021], ["2023-12-19", 0.4021], ["2023-12-20", 0.4021], ["2023-12-20", 0.4082], ["2023-12-21", 0.4082], ["2023-12-21", 0.4171], ["2023-12-21", 0.4259], ["2023-12-21", 0.4256], ["2023-12-22", 0.4259], ["2023-12-22", 0.4259], ["2023-12-22", 0.4253], ["2023-12-22", 0.4247], ["2023-12-23", 0.4191], ["2023-12-23", 0.4191], ["2023-12-25", 0.4143], ["2023-12-25", 0.4131], ["2023-12-25", 0.4131], ["2023-12-26", 0.4077], ["2023-12-26", 0.4077], ["2023-12-26", 0.4057], ["2023-12-26", 0.3774], ["2023-12-26", 0.3853], ["2023-12-27", 0.3853], ["2023-12-27", 0.37], ["2023-12-27", 0.37], ["2023-12-27", 0.3575], ["2023-12-28", 0.3542], ["2023-12-29", 0.3489], ["2023-12-30", 0.3403], ["2023-12-31", 0.3386], ["2023-12-31", 0.3422], ["2023-12-31", 0.345], ["2024-01-01", 0.3542], ["2024-01-01", 0.3528], ["2024-01-02", 0.3472], ["2024-01-02", 0.3467], ["2024-01-02", 0.3403], ["2024-01-02", 0.3311], ["2024-01-02", 0.3251], ["2024-01-02", 0.3251], ["2024-01-02", 0.3429], ["2024-01-03", 0.3416], ["2024-01-03", 0.3403], ["2024-01-03", 0.3282], ["2024-01-03", 0.3271], ["2024-01-04", 0.3337], ["2024-01-04", 0.3284], ["2024-01-05", 0.3284], ["2024-01-05", 0.3239], ["2024-01-05", 0.3234], ["2024-01-05", 0.3218], ["2024-01-05", 0.3247], ["2024-01-06", 0.3139], ["2024-01-06", 0.3132], ["2024-01-06", 0.3132], ["2024-01-06", 0.3132], ["2024-01-06", 0.3029], ["2024-01-06", 0.2982], ["2024-01-06", 0.285], ["2024-01-07", 0.285], ["2024-01-07", 0.2758], ["2024-01-07", 0.2653], ["2024-01-07", 0.2639], ["2024-01-08", 0.2637], ["2024-01-08", 0.2605], ["2024-01-08", 0.2553], ["2024-01-08", 0.2553], ["2024-01-09", 0.2492], ["2024-01-09", 0.2361], ["2024-01-09", 0.2176], ["2024-01-09", 0.2163], ["2024-01-09", 0.2124], ["2024-01-09", 0.2116], ["2024-01-09", 0.2108], ["2024-01-09", 0.2105], ["2024-01-10", 0.2063], ["2024-01-11", 0.2055], ["2024-01-11", 0.2039], ["2024-01-11", 0.2024], ["2024-01-11", 0.2024], ["2024-01-12", 0.1945], ["2024-01-12", 0.1882], ["2024-01-12", 0.1818], ["2024-01-13", 0.17], ["2024-01-13", 0.17]] | ["https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2022/court-rules-donald-j-trump-contempt-court-failure-comply-judges-order-attorney", "https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/451685_2020_the_people_of_the_stat_v_the_people_of_the_stat_decision_order_on_758.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/trump-fraud-trial-michael-cohen-testifies-in-fraud-trial.html", "https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2023/attorney-general-james-statement-decision-uphold-donald-trump-contempt-order", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_42", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtwItbTPWNE&t=13s", "https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-gag-order-lifted-appeals-speech-f0aeb12e64ee0b3bb7544d6949368653", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/10/26/politics/trump-legal-system-rules-2024/index.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/13/opinions/trumps-mental-gaffes-obeidallah/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/can-trump-be-disqualified-presidency-over-jan-6-2023-09-12/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-reinstates-gag-order-trump-election-case-2023-10-29/", "https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2022/attorney-general-james-files-motion-hold-donald-j-trump-contempt-failure-comply", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/08/trump-arraignment-charges-judge-first-amendment/674993/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/10/16/1205769475/trump-gag-order", "https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/donald-trump-appeals-contempt-court-finding-rcna26119", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/politics/trump-gag-order-engoron-fine/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/us/politics/trump-gag-order-free-speech.html", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-fined-5000-post-disparaging-court-clerk-new-york-case-filing-2023-10-20/", "https://www.courthousenews.com/manhattan-judge-threatens-donald-trump-with-jail-time-for-blatant-violation-of-gag-order/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3109 | <p>Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and pop music superstar Taylor Swift began dating in the fall of 2023, which has generated a great deal of speculation about the future of their relationship (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/10/26/1208506062/taylor-swift-travis-kelce" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.insider.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-relationship-timeline-photos-2023-10" target="_blank">Insider</a>). An engagement must be acknowledged by both parties and/or their official spokespersons to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 10 May 2024, will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift announce or acknowledge that they are engaged to be married? | 2023-11-10 | [["2023-11-10", 0.4], ["2023-11-10", 0.2], ["2023-11-10", 0.2167], ["2023-11-11", 0.175], ["2023-11-11", 0.192], ["2023-11-11", 0.206], ["2023-11-11", 0.204], ["2023-11-11", 0.17], ["2023-11-11", 0.16], ["2023-11-11", 0.2229], ["2023-11-12", 0.2013], ["2023-11-12", 0.1988], ["2023-11-12", 0.2113], ["2023-11-12", 0.2267], ["2023-11-12", 0.224], ["2023-11-12", 0.2491], ["2023-11-12", 0.2582], ["2023-11-12", 0.2536], ["2023-11-12", 0.2325], ["2023-11-13", 0.2723], ["2023-11-13", 0.2886], ["2023-11-13", 0.2914], ["2023-11-13", 0.284], ["2023-11-13", 0.2975], ["2023-11-14", 0.3507], ["2023-11-14", 0.3513], ["2023-11-14", 0.3473], ["2023-11-15", 0.3729], ["2023-11-15", 0.3514], ["2023-11-15", 0.348], ["2023-11-15", 0.3193], ["2023-11-16", 0.26], ["2023-11-16", 0.254], ["2023-11-17", 0.244], ["2023-11-17", 0.209], ["2023-11-17", 0.221], ["2023-11-18", 0.201], ["2023-11-18", 0.189], ["2023-11-19", 0.1809], ["2023-11-19", 0.1673], ["2023-11-19", 0.17], ["2023-11-20", 0.1783], ["2023-11-20", 0.1658], ["2023-11-21", 0.1767], ["2023-11-21", 0.2015], ["2023-11-21", 0.2585], ["2023-11-21", 0.2523], ["2023-11-22", 0.2508], ["2023-11-22", 0.2686], ["2023-11-22", 0.2579], ["2023-11-23", 0.2329], ["2023-11-26", 0.2536], ["2023-11-26", 0.2593], ["2023-11-27", 0.2593], ["2023-11-28", 0.2557], ["2023-11-28", 0.2557], ["2023-11-28", 0.2479], ["2023-11-28", 0.2443], ["2023-11-28", 0.2457], ["2023-12-07", 0.2443], ["2023-12-10", 0.2429], ["2023-12-11", 0.2371], ["2023-12-13", 0.2314], ["2023-12-13", 0.2307], ["2023-12-13", 0.2753], ["2023-12-15", 0.2747], ["2023-12-18", 0.28], ["2023-12-18", 0.2787], ["2023-12-18", 0.2913], ["2023-12-18", 0.3313], ["2023-12-19", 0.3027], ["2023-12-22", 0.3133], ["2023-12-25", 0.3147], ["2023-12-25", 0.3013], ["2023-12-26", 0.308], ["2023-12-27", 0.308], ["2023-12-27", 0.295], ["2023-12-30", 0.2988], ["2023-12-30", 0.2975], ["2024-01-05", 0.3013], ["2024-01-05", 0.2956], ["2024-01-08", 0.2656], ["2024-01-08", 0.2713], ["2024-01-08", 0.2663], ["2024-01-09", 0.2644], ["2024-01-09", 0.25], ["2024-01-09", 0.2506], ["2024-01-12", 0.2506]] | ["https://www.insider.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-relationship-timeline-photos-2023-10#july-8-2023-kelce-attended-swifts-eras-tour-show-stop-in-kansas-city-1", "https://www.womenshealthmag.com/relationships/a45323789/travis-kelce-dating-history/", "https://parade.com/celebrities/taylor-swift-dating-history-boyfriend-list", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/388440/most-popular-months-for-engagement-in-the-united-states/", "https://www.vulture.com/2023/11/taylor-swift-eras-tour-2023-stadium-shows.html", "https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a45412101/travis-kelce-dating-history/", "https://bridalmusings.com/191501/how-long-do-people-date-before-getting-married/", "https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a29684699/taylor-swift-dating-boyfriend-history/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=arb_ga_cos_d_bm_prog_org_us_a29684699&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6MSzusDOgwMVaklHAR0BZwE2EAAYASAAEgLEtfD_BwE"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-09-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3008 |
<p>House Republicans are reportedly considering opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and corruption claims related to family business dealings (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4183496-mccarthy-says-he-wont-open-impeachment-inquiry-without-house-vote/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/04/white-house-biden-impeachment-00113824" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/politics/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-strategy/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, "officially open" means either 1) a vote by the full House to begin an impeachment inquiry, or 2) a public announcement by the Speaker of the House of Representatives that an impeachment inquiry has begun or is beginning (<a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-houses-role-in-the-impeachment-inquiry-process" target="_blank">Constitution Center</a>, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45769" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-09-12 | Will the US House of Representatives officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before 1 January 2024? | 2023-09-07 | [["2023-09-08", 0.6], ["2023-09-08", 0.3], ["2023-09-08", 0.2067], ["2023-09-08", 0.355], ["2023-09-08", 0.454], ["2023-09-08", 0.4833], ["2023-09-09", 0.5143], ["2023-09-09", 0.4813], ["2023-09-09", 0.4825], ["2023-09-09", 0.4744], ["2023-09-09", 0.4633], ["2023-09-09", 0.419], ["2023-09-09", 0.44], ["2023-09-09", 0.4533], ["2023-09-09", 0.4454], ["2023-09-09", 0.4136], ["2023-09-09", 0.4127], ["2023-09-10", 0.4244], ["2023-09-10", 0.4175], ["2023-09-10", 0.4018], ["2023-09-10", 0.3878], ["2023-09-10", 0.4042], ["2023-09-10", 0.424], ["2023-09-10", 0.4443], ["2023-09-10", 0.4264], ["2023-09-10", 0.4209], ["2023-09-10", 0.4346], ["2023-09-11", 0.4352], ["2023-09-11", 0.4319], ["2023-09-11", 0.4315], ["2023-09-11", 0.4327], ["2023-09-11", 0.4178], ["2023-09-11", 0.4332], ["2023-09-11", 0.4396], ["2023-09-11", 0.4593], ["2023-09-11", 0.4679], ["2023-09-11", 0.4621], ["2023-09-11", 0.458], ["2023-09-12", 0.43], ["2023-09-12", 0.43], ["2023-09-12", 0.43]] | ["https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/speaker-mccarthy-expected-endorse-impeachment-inquiry-president-biden/story?id=103114626", "https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/", "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4197024-ken-buck-says-house-facing-perfect-storm-over-spending-biden-impeachment/", "https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/dog_that_caught_the_car", "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4183851-mccarthy-faces-political-minefield-on-biden-impeachment/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/politics/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-strategy/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3092 | <p>Guyana, Venezuela's eastern neighbor and the fastest growing economy in the Western Hemisphere, has voiced concerns about Venezuelan actions near its border (<a href="https://caricom.org/statement-by-the-caribbean-community-caricom-on-the-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/" target="_blank">CARICOM</a>, <a href="https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/guyana-wants-clarity-venezuela-military-buildup-borders" target="_blank">Loop News</a>, <a href="https://wiredja.com/index.php/news/guyana-opposition-calls-venezuela-s-soft-invasion-of-essequibo-a-national-security-threat" target="_blank">WiredJA</a>). For over a century, Venezuela has claimed over two-thirds of Guyanese territory as its own, and the Maduro government has scheduled a controversial referendum for 3 December 2023 to vote on Venezuela's rights to that territory (<a href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/venezuelan-government-calls-referendum-over-essequibo-dispute/" target="_blank">Venezuela Analysis</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-20/venezuela-sets-referendum-date-on-territory-dispute-with-guyana" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231027-guyana-okays-drilling-for-oil-discovered-in-waters-claimed-by-venezuela" target="_blank">France 24</a>). Accusations of Venezuela sending military forces to Ankoko Island alone would not count (<a href="https://demerarawaves.com/2018/04/05/guyana-wants-world-court-to-rule-that-venezuela-must-withdraw-from-ankoko-island-stop-scaring-investors/" target="_blank">Demerara Waves</a>). Accusations from Associate Members would not count (<a href="https://caricom.org/the-conference-of-heads-of-government/" target="_blank">CARICOM</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Guyana" means the internationally recognized territory of the country, and both the accusation and the sending must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a CARICOM member state other than Guyana accuse Venezuela of sending military ground forces into Guyana without its permission before 3 May 2024? | 2023-11-03 | [["2023-11-03", 0.99], ["2023-11-03", 0.575], ["2023-11-03", 0.555], ["2023-11-03", 0.5033], ["2023-11-03", 0.4275], ["2023-11-03", 0.362], ["2023-11-04", 0.3017], ["2023-11-04", 0.2586], ["2023-11-04", 0.24], ["2023-11-04", 0.2388], ["2023-11-04", 0.2511], ["2023-11-04", 0.243], ["2023-11-04", 0.233], ["2023-11-05", 0.2127], ["2023-11-05", 0.1992], ["2023-11-05", 0.1933], ["2023-11-06", 0.1691], ["2023-11-06", 0.231], ["2023-11-07", 0.2609], ["2023-11-07", 0.278], ["2023-11-07", 0.333], ["2023-11-07", 0.352], ["2023-11-08", 0.318], ["2023-11-08", 0.309], ["2023-11-11", 0.304], ["2023-11-12", 0.322], ["2023-11-12", 0.359], ["2023-11-13", 0.357], ["2023-11-18", 0.352], ["2023-11-25", 0.376], ["2023-11-30", 0.38], ["2023-12-01", 0.315], ["2023-12-03", 0.259], ["2023-12-03", 0.257], ["2023-12-04", 0.217], ["2023-12-04", 0.212], ["2023-12-05", 0.264], ["2023-12-05", 0.274], ["2023-12-05", 0.264], ["2023-12-05", 0.258], ["2023-12-05", 0.273], ["2023-12-05", 0.253], ["2023-12-06", 0.258], ["2023-12-06", 0.195], ["2023-12-06", 0.224], ["2023-12-07", 0.2164], ["2023-12-07", 0.29], ["2023-12-08", 0.2582], ["2023-12-08", 0.2573], ["2023-12-09", 0.2673], ["2023-12-10", 0.2573], ["2023-12-10", 0.2645], ["2023-12-13", 0.3133], ["2023-12-14", 0.3217], ["2023-12-15", 0.3158], ["2023-12-15", 0.3108], ["2023-12-15", 0.3025], ["2023-12-15", 0.26], ["2023-12-16", 0.2367], ["2023-12-16", 0.2283], ["2023-12-16", 0.2267], ["2023-12-16", 0.2183], ["2023-12-16", 0.21], ["2023-12-17", 0.2], ["2023-12-17", 0.1975], ["2023-12-18", 0.1908], ["2023-12-21", 0.1917], ["2023-12-22", 0.1883], ["2023-12-24", 0.1875], ["2023-12-28", 0.1883], ["2023-12-30", 0.1892], ["2023-12-31", 0.1883], ["2023-12-31", 0.1892], ["2023-12-31", 0.195], ["2024-01-01", 0.195], ["2024-01-01", 0.1983], ["2024-01-05", 0.1975], ["2024-01-06", 0.1275], ["2024-01-06", 0.1217], ["2024-01-07", 0.1192], ["2024-01-09", 0.1117], ["2024-01-09", 0.1233], ["2024-01-12", 0.1208], ["2024-01-12", 0.1133], ["2024-01-12", 0.1133]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/opinion/maduro-venezuela-presidential-elections.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/04/americas/venezuelans-approve-takeover-of-oil-rich-region-of-guyana-in-referendum/index.html", "https://www.ejiltalk.org/guyana-v-venezuela-intriguing-pleadings-in-an-inconspicuous-case/", "https://oilnow.gy/featured/just-good-guyanas-crude-oil/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/venezuela-will-hold-military-exercises-off-its-shores-as-a-british-warship-heads-to-guyana/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/", "https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2517724-venezuela-guyana-leaders-to-meet-on-land-dispute", "https://peacepalacelibrary.nl/blog/2016/essequibo-territorial-dispute-between-venezuela-and-guyana", "https://dialogo-americas.com/articles/venezuelas-maduro-baselessly-accuses-guyanas-ali-of-violating-treaty-of-geneva/", "https://www.escenariomundial.com/2023/11/29/el-ejercito-de-brasil-se-dispone-en-alerta-maxima-por-una-posible-invasion-de-venezuela-a-guyana/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-guyana-presidents-meet-amid-territorial-dispute-2023-12-14/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-maduro-discussed-increasing-partnership-between-russia-venezuela-ifx-2022-03-01/", "https://mppre.gob.ve/2023/12/14/declaracion-conjunta-dialogo-guyana-venezuela/", "https://www.landofsixpeoples.com/news401/nc402226.htm", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/28/venezuela-mounts-military-exercises-as-uk-sends-warship-to-support-guyana", "https://today.caricom.org/2023/12/01/statement-from-the-caribbean-community-on-the-provisional-measures-ordered-by-the-international-court-of-justice-icj-concerning-arbitral-award-of-3-october-1899-guyana-v-venezuela/", "https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1y/k1y2h6he2d", "https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-guyana-leaders-meet-escalate-222857042.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2516564-venezuela-gives-90day-warning-to-guyana-producers", "https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-28/the-fallout-between-venezuelas-communist-party-and-the-maduro-regime.html", "https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1896/01/04/105737200.html?pageNumber=1", "https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1732211571282132998", "https://www.nytimes.com/2000/09/17/world/venezuelan-is-rekindling-land-dispute-with-guyana.html", "https://twitter.com/UKCaribbeans/status/1733460132481151470", "https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-09-21/venezuela-deploys-11000-troops-to-take-over-prison-controlled-by-tren-de-agua-gang.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-10-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3058 |
<p>In September 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") began targeted strikes against the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-04/gm-estimates-costs-of-uaw-strike-through-sept-30-at-200-million" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/05/uaw-strike-impact-economy" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html" target="_blank">Key Differences</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. This is due to the return to work by all UAW employees per the UAW and reporting from the Big 3, the last being General Motors.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-31 | Will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the "Big Three" US automakers cease before 16 November 2023? | 2023-10-10 | [["2023-10-11", 0.75], ["2023-10-11", 0.5], ["2023-10-11", 0.4167], ["2023-10-11", 0.4375], ["2023-10-11", 0.44], ["2023-10-11", 0.5317], ["2023-10-11", 0.5514], ["2023-10-11", 0.5514], ["2023-10-12", 0.5013], ["2023-10-12", 0.4456], ["2023-10-12", 0.469], ["2023-10-12", 0.4491], ["2023-10-12", 0.4533], ["2023-10-12", 0.4685], ["2023-10-12", 0.4738], ["2023-10-12", 0.4471], ["2023-10-12", 0.4307], ["2023-10-12", 0.424], ["2023-10-12", 0.4293], ["2023-10-12", 0.4213], ["2023-10-12", 0.4341], ["2023-10-12", 0.4411], ["2023-10-12", 0.4521], ["2023-10-13", 0.461], ["2023-10-13", 0.461], ["2023-10-13", 0.4605], ["2023-10-13", 0.4555], ["2023-10-13", 0.4504], ["2023-10-13", 0.4475], ["2023-10-13", 0.4476], ["2023-10-13", 0.4452], ["2023-10-14", 0.4512], ["2023-10-14", 0.4435], ["2023-10-14", 0.4608], ["2023-10-14", 0.4524], ["2023-10-14", 0.4504], ["2023-10-15", 0.4345], ["2023-10-15", 0.4435], ["2023-10-15", 0.4383], ["2023-10-16", 0.4185], ["2023-10-16", 0.4492], ["2023-10-16", 0.46], ["2023-10-16", 0.4536], ["2023-10-16", 0.4536], ["2023-10-16", 0.4764], ["2023-10-16", 0.4947], ["2023-10-16", 0.4775], ["2023-10-16", 0.4781], ["2023-10-16", 0.4824], ["2023-10-16", 0.4782], ["2023-10-17", 0.4865], ["2023-10-17", 0.4894], ["2023-10-17", 0.4978], ["2023-10-17", 0.4926], ["2023-10-17", 0.4825], ["2023-10-17", 0.491], ["2023-10-17", 0.4895], ["2023-10-17", 0.4832], ["2023-10-17", 0.4817], ["2023-10-17", 0.4717], ["2023-10-17", 0.4804], ["2023-10-17", 0.4875], ["2023-10-17", 0.4965], ["2023-10-18", 0.48], ["2023-10-18", 0.4842], ["2023-10-18", 0.482], ["2023-10-18", 0.475], ["2023-10-18", 0.4596], ["2023-10-18", 0.4538], ["2023-10-18", 0.4648], ["2023-10-18", 0.4648], ["2023-10-18", 0.4704], ["2023-10-18", 0.4807], ["2023-10-18", 0.4689], ["2023-10-19", 0.4707], ["2023-10-19", 0.485], ["2023-10-19", 0.4852], ["2023-10-19", 0.4871], ["2023-10-19", 0.4834], ["2023-10-19", 0.483], ["2023-10-19", 0.4894], ["2023-10-19", 0.4869], ["2023-10-19", 0.4886], ["2023-10-19", 0.4849], ["2023-10-19", 0.4854], ["2023-10-19", 0.4937], ["2023-10-19", 0.4979], ["2023-10-19", 0.4938], ["2023-10-19", 0.4851], ["2023-10-19", 0.4816], ["2023-10-19", 0.4846], ["2023-10-19", 0.4873], ["2023-10-19", 0.4886], ["2023-10-19", 0.4872], ["2023-10-19", 0.4943], ["2023-10-19", 0.4976], ["2023-10-20", 0.4989], ["2023-10-20", 0.4967], ["2023-10-20", 0.4974], ["2023-10-20", 0.5], ["2023-10-20", 0.5025], ["2023-10-20", 0.489], ["2023-10-20", 0.4868], ["2023-10-20", 0.4873], ["2023-10-20", 0.4938], ["2023-10-20", 0.4879], ["2023-10-20", 0.4879], ["2023-10-20", 0.4892], ["2023-10-20", 0.4961], ["2023-10-20", 0.4936], ["2023-10-20", 0.5013], ["2023-10-20", 0.5013], ["2023-10-20", 0.5037], ["2023-10-20", 0.5024], ["2023-10-20", 0.5029], ["2023-10-20", 0.5079], ["2023-10-21", 0.5089], ["2023-10-21", 0.5142], ["2023-10-21", 0.5193], ["2023-10-21", 0.5198], ["2023-10-22", 0.5146], ["2023-10-22", 0.5197], ["2023-10-22", 0.517], ["2023-10-22", 0.5214], ["2023-10-22", 0.5261], ["2023-10-22", 0.5274], ["2023-10-23", 0.5271], ["2023-10-23", 0.5138], ["2023-10-23", 0.5144], ["2023-10-23", 0.5156], ["2023-10-23", 0.5229], ["2023-10-23", 0.5109], ["2023-10-23", 0.5237], ["2023-10-23", 0.5231], ["2023-10-24", 0.5364], ["2023-10-24", 0.535], ["2023-10-24", 0.5336], ["2023-10-24", 0.5281], ["2023-10-25", 0.5272], ["2023-10-25", 0.5275], ["2023-10-25", 0.525], ["2023-10-25", 0.5244], ["2023-10-25", 0.5069], ["2023-10-25", 0.5131], ["2023-10-25", 0.5203], ["2023-10-25", 0.5128], ["2023-10-25", 0.5294], ["2023-10-25", 0.54], ["2023-10-25", 0.5422], ["2023-10-25", 0.5436], ["2023-10-25", 0.5536], ["2023-10-26", 0.555], ["2023-10-26", 0.5578], ["2023-10-26", 0.5647], ["2023-10-26", 0.5703], ["2023-10-26", 0.575], ["2023-10-26", 0.5792], ["2023-10-26", 0.5778], ["2023-10-26", 0.5847], ["2023-10-26", 0.5958], ["2023-10-26", 0.5958], ["2023-10-26", 0.6028], ["2023-10-26", 0.6069], ["2023-10-26", 0.6139], ["2023-10-26", 0.6144], ["2023-10-26", 0.6253], ["2023-10-26", 0.6297], ["2023-10-26", 0.6381], ["2023-10-26", 0.6422], ["2023-10-26", 0.6436], ["2023-10-26", 0.6561], ["2023-10-26", 0.6644], ["2023-10-26", 0.675], ["2023-10-26", 0.6847], ["2023-10-26", 0.6889], ["2023-10-26", 0.6931], ["2023-10-26", 0.7094], ["2023-10-26", 0.7114], ["2023-10-26", 0.7125], ["2023-10-26", 0.7069], ["2023-10-26", 0.7081], ["2023-10-26", 0.7095], ["2023-10-26", 0.7169], ["2023-10-27", 0.7065], ["2023-10-27", 0.719], ["2023-10-27", 0.7169], ["2023-10-27", 0.7179], ["2023-10-27", 0.7179], ["2023-10-27", 0.72], ["2023-10-27", 0.7208], ["2023-10-27", 0.7178], ["2023-10-27", 0.7239], ["2023-10-27", 0.7276], ["2023-10-27", 0.7312], ["2023-10-27", 0.7324], ["2023-10-27", 0.7361], ["2023-10-27", 0.736], ["2023-10-27", 0.7466], ["2023-10-28", 0.7467], ["2023-10-28", 0.7656], ["2023-10-28", 0.7673], ["2023-10-28", 0.7788], ["2023-10-28", 0.7721], ["2023-10-28", 0.7745], ["2023-10-28", 0.7763], ["2023-10-28", 0.7779], ["2023-10-28", 0.7786], ["2023-10-28", 0.7734], ["2023-10-28", 0.7773], ["2023-10-28", 0.7807], ["2023-10-28", 0.7798], ["2023-10-28", 0.783], ["2023-10-28", 0.7822], ["2023-10-28", 0.7898], ["2023-10-29", 0.7871], ["2023-10-29", 0.7867], ["2023-10-29", 0.7973], ["2023-10-29", 0.8089], ["2023-10-29", 0.8063], ["2023-10-29", 0.8132], ["2023-10-29", 0.8134], ["2023-10-29", 0.8134], ["2023-10-29", 0.815], ["2023-10-29", 0.8145], ["2023-10-29", 0.8163], ["2023-10-29", 0.8184], ["2023-10-29", 0.8197], ["2023-10-29", 0.8268], ["2023-10-29", 0.8218], ["2023-10-29", 0.8274], ["2023-10-29", 0.8287], ["2023-10-29", 0.8247], ["2023-10-30", 0.8292], ["2023-10-30", 0.8221], ["2023-10-30", 0.8277], ["2023-10-30", 0.8267], ["2023-10-30", 0.8321], ["2023-10-30", 0.8128], ["2023-10-30", 0.8077], ["2023-10-30", 0.8064], ["2023-10-30", 0.8063], ["2023-10-30", 0.8088], ["2023-10-30", 0.811], ["2023-10-30", 0.8112], ["2023-10-30", 0.8124], ["2023-10-30", 0.8145], ["2023-10-30", 0.8177], ["2023-10-30", 0.8121], ["2023-10-30", 0.8152], ["2023-10-30", 0.8161], ["2023-10-30", 0.8173], ["2023-10-30", 0.8184], ["2023-10-30", 0.8193], ["2023-10-30", 0.8239], ["2023-10-30", 0.8256], ["2023-10-30", 0.83], ["2023-10-30", 0.8326], ["2023-10-30", 0.833], ["2023-10-30", 0.8363], ["2023-10-30", 0.8398], ["2023-10-30", 0.8398], ["2023-10-30", 0.8513], ["2023-10-30", 0.8545], ["2023-10-30", 0.8555], ["2023-10-30", 0.8565], ["2023-10-30", 0.8627], ["2023-10-30", 0.8655], ["2023-10-30", 0.8684], ["2023-10-30", 0.8724], ["2023-10-30", 0.8729], ["2023-10-30", 0.8775], ["2023-10-30", 0.879], ["2023-10-30", 0.879]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uaw-expands-strike-against-gm-walking-out-texas-suv-plant-2023-10-24/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/uaw-strike-stellantis-union-negotiators-agree-to-terms-of-a-deal.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-reaches-tentative-deal-with-uaw-source-says-2023-10-30/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/27/uaw-deal-strike/", "https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2023/10/25/uaw-strike-ford-reaches-tentative-deal-with-union-sources-say/71318908007/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-workers-return-work-uaw-turns-gm-stellantis-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Oct%2026%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Ford,with%20the%20company%20late%20Wednesday", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/26/ford-uaw-contract-strike/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/business/economy/gm-uaw-contract-deal.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/25/ford-united-auto-workers-union-deal-strike-general-motors-stellantis", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-28/uaw-aims-to-announce-stellantis-deal-saturday-as-talks-finish-up?embedded-checkout=true", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/uaw-closing-in-on-deals-with-both-gm-and-stellantis/ar-AA1iXJsf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/business/economy/uaw-stellantis-contract-deal.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20231028&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/gm-uaw-labor-talks.html", "https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2023/10/30/uaw-ratification-elections-ford-contract-voting/71378434007/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/28/uaw-stellantis-strike-gm/", "https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/30/23938368/gm-uaw-tentative-deal-strike-autoworker-ev", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/business/economy/uaw-ford-contract-agreement-strike.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/gm-matched-ford-s-25-salary-increase-in-latest-contract-offer-to-uaw", "https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/united-auto-workers-stellantis-reach-tentative-agreement-labor-contract-reports", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/general-motors-stellantis-uaw-00124021", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/business/economy/uaw-stellantis-contract-deal.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20231028&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=220001538&segment_id=148583&user_id=e4c8cb2d4adc47d9eaa2d9f8e931ac46", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/business/economy/gm-uaw-contract-deal.html?smid=url-share", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/30/gm-uaw-tentative-agreement-labor-strike.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/29/uaw-ford-agreement-bolsters-biden-strategy/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-uaw-negotiators-reach-labor-deal-cnbc-2023-10-25/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3016 | <p>As fighting continues in Ukraine with Russian nuclear weapons now in Belarus, there are continuing concerns that Moscow may move nuclear weapons into Ukraine (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65932700" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/polands-leader-russias-moving-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus-102450122" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-dmitry-medvedev-ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-invasion-war-nuclear-weapons/" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia or Belarus' detonation of a nuclear device in Ukraine would be considered a Russian or Belarusian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into Ukraine. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-dirty-bombs.html" target="_blank">Nuclear Regulatory Commission</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Between 15 September 2023 and 30 April 2024, will Russia or Belarus publicly announce that it has moved a nuclear weapon or weapons into Ukraine? | 2023-09-15 | [["2023-09-15", 0.1], ["2023-09-15", 0.175], ["2023-09-15", 0.085], ["2023-09-15", 0.0567], ["2023-09-15", 0.055], ["2023-09-15", 0.056], ["2023-09-15", 0.0517], ["2023-09-15", 0.05], ["2023-09-15", 0.0571], ["2023-09-15", 0.0538], ["2023-09-15", 0.05], ["2023-09-15", 0.046], ["2023-09-16", 0.0445], ["2023-09-16", 0.0425], ["2023-09-16", 0.04], ["2023-09-16", 0.0371], ["2023-09-16", 0.0321], ["2023-09-16", 0.0333], ["2023-09-16", 0.0319], ["2023-09-16", 0.0329], ["2023-09-16", 0.0311], ["2023-09-17", 0.0305], ["2023-09-17", 0.03], ["2023-09-17", 0.031], ["2023-09-17", 0.0341], ["2023-09-17", 0.0318], ["2023-09-17", 0.0313], ["2023-09-17", 0.0321], ["2023-09-17", 0.0308], ["2023-09-17", 0.0527], ["2023-09-17", 0.053], ["2023-09-17", 0.0511], ["2023-09-18", 0.0493], ["2023-09-18", 0.049], ["2023-09-18", 0.0765], ["2023-09-18", 0.0744], ["2023-09-18", 0.0785], ["2023-09-18", 0.0765], ["2023-09-18", 0.0783], ["2023-09-18", 0.076], ["2023-09-18", 0.0775], ["2023-09-18", 0.0782], ["2023-09-18", 0.0785], ["2023-09-19", 0.0867], ["2023-09-19", 0.0842], ["2023-09-19", 0.1008], ["2023-09-19", 0.1008], ["2023-09-19", 0.0985], ["2023-09-19", 0.0981], ["2023-09-20", 0.1016], ["2023-09-20", 0.1323], ["2023-09-20", 0.1396], ["2023-09-20", 0.1448], ["2023-09-21", 0.1563], ["2023-09-21", 0.16], ["2023-09-21", 0.1525], ["2023-09-21", 0.121], ["2023-09-22", 0.1205], ["2023-09-22", 0.1148], ["2023-09-23", 0.1229], ["2023-09-23", 0.1238], ["2023-09-23", 0.1273], ["2023-09-23", 0.1273], ["2023-09-25", 0.125], ["2023-09-25", 0.1259], ["2023-09-25", 0.1259], ["2023-09-25", 0.1204], ["2023-09-26", 0.12], ["2023-09-26", 0.1187], ["2023-09-26", 0.1183], ["2023-09-26", 0.12], ["2023-09-27", 0.1178], ["2023-09-27", 0.1133], ["2023-09-29", 0.1192], ["2023-09-29", 0.1183], ["2023-09-30", 0.1183], ["2023-09-30", 0.12], ["2023-10-01", 0.0858], ["2023-10-01", 0.1224], ["2023-10-02", 0.122], ["2023-10-02", 0.112], ["2023-10-02", 0.1088], ["2023-10-05", 0.1092], ["2023-10-05", 0.1064], ["2023-10-05", 0.1054], ["2023-10-06", 0.1046], ["2023-10-06", 0.105], ["2023-10-06", 0.1046], ["2023-10-06", 0.1046], ["2023-10-07", 0.0996], ["2023-10-08", 0.0969], ["2023-10-08", 0.0965], ["2023-10-09", 0.0962], ["2023-10-09", 0.0885], ["2023-10-09", 0.0881], ["2023-10-09", 0.0881], ["2023-10-10", 0.0881], ["2023-10-12", 0.0888], ["2023-10-12", 0.0904], ["2023-10-14", 0.0838], ["2023-10-14", 0.0835], ["2023-10-14", 0.0835], ["2023-10-14", 0.0831], ["2023-10-15", 0.0831], ["2023-10-15", 0.0831], ["2023-10-16", 0.0831], ["2023-10-16", 0.0831], ["2023-10-16", 0.0831], ["2023-10-18", 0.0827], ["2023-10-18", 0.0827], ["2023-10-19", 0.0827], ["2023-10-21", 0.08], ["2023-10-21", 0.0796], ["2023-10-21", 0.0789], ["2023-10-22", 0.0789], ["2023-10-23", 0.0785], ["2023-10-23", 0.0785], ["2023-10-24", 0.0863], ["2023-10-25", 0.0863], ["2023-10-26", 0.0863], ["2023-10-27", 0.0836], ["2023-10-28", 0.0818], ["2023-10-29", 0.0818], ["2023-10-29", 0.0818], ["2023-10-29", 0.0818], ["2023-10-30", 0.0761], ["2023-10-30", 0.0454], ["2023-10-30", 0.05], ["2023-10-30", 0.05], ["2023-10-31", 0.0493], ["2023-11-01", 0.0493], ["2023-11-01", 0.0443], ["2023-11-01", 0.0432], ["2023-11-01", 0.0418], ["2023-11-02", 0.0403], ["2023-11-02", 0.04], ["2023-11-02", 0.04], ["2023-11-02", 0.04], ["2023-11-03", 0.0407], ["2023-11-03", 0.0407], ["2023-11-04", 0.0407], ["2023-11-05", 0.0407], ["2023-11-05", 0.0407], ["2023-11-05", 0.0407], ["2023-11-05", 0.0407], ["2023-11-06", 0.04], ["2023-11-06", 0.0386], ["2023-11-07", 0.0386], ["2023-11-07", 0.0386], ["2023-11-08", 0.0386], ["2023-11-11", 0.0372], ["2023-11-12", 0.0372], ["2023-11-12", 0.0379], ["2023-11-13", 0.0379], ["2023-11-14", 0.0379], ["2023-11-14", 0.0379], ["2023-11-17", 0.0383], ["2023-11-18", 0.0383], ["2023-11-18", 0.0383], ["2023-11-18", 0.0383], ["2023-11-18", 0.0383], ["2023-11-19", 0.0383], ["2023-11-19", 0.0383], ["2023-11-19", 0.0383], ["2023-11-20", 0.0383], ["2023-11-20", 0.0379], ["2023-11-22", 0.0379], ["2023-11-22", 0.0376], ["2023-11-25", 0.0383], ["2023-11-25", 0.0379], ["2023-11-25", 0.0379], ["2023-11-25", 0.0383], ["2023-11-26", 0.0383], ["2023-11-26", 0.0386], ["2023-11-26", 0.0427], ["2023-11-26", 0.0427], ["2023-11-27", 0.0457], ["2023-11-27", 0.0457], ["2023-11-28", 0.0457], ["2023-11-29", 0.0457], ["2023-11-30", 0.0453], ["2023-12-02", 0.0453], ["2023-12-02", 0.0453], ["2023-12-02", 0.0453], ["2023-12-03", 0.0453], ["2023-12-03", 0.0407], ["2023-12-03", 0.0407], ["2023-12-05", 0.0407], ["2023-12-06", 0.0357], ["2023-12-07", 0.0357], ["2023-12-07", 0.0357], ["2023-12-07", 0.0353], ["2023-12-11", 0.0353], ["2023-12-12", 0.0353], ["2023-12-12", 0.0353], ["2023-12-12", 0.0353], ["2023-12-12", 0.0353], ["2023-12-13", 0.0353], ["2023-12-13", 0.0353], ["2023-12-13", 0.0367], ["2023-12-14", 0.0363], ["2023-12-15", 0.0363], ["2023-12-18", 0.0363], ["2023-12-22", 0.036], ["2023-12-22", 0.036], ["2023-12-22", 0.0348], ["2023-12-22", 0.0365], ["2023-12-23", 0.0365], ["2023-12-25", 0.0361], ["2023-12-25", 0.0361], ["2023-12-26", 0.0684], ["2023-12-26", 0.0684], ["2023-12-26", 0.0713], ["2023-12-26", 0.0713], ["2023-12-26", 0.0694], ["2023-12-26", 0.0578], ["2023-12-27", 0.0578], ["2023-12-27", 0.0584], ["2023-12-27", 0.0663], ["2023-12-27", 0.0663], ["2023-12-27", 0.0642], ["2023-12-27", 0.0642], ["2023-12-28", 0.0782], ["2023-12-29", 0.0764], ["2023-12-31", 0.1048], ["2024-01-01", 0.1018], ["2024-01-02", 0.1012], ["2024-01-02", 0.0968], ["2024-01-02", 0.0968], ["2024-01-02", 0.0968], ["2024-01-02", 0.0968], ["2024-01-02", 0.0968], ["2024-01-02", 0.094], ["2024-01-02", 0.1037], ["2024-01-03", 0.1037], ["2024-01-04", 0.1037], ["2024-01-04", 0.1017], ["2024-01-04", 0.1017], ["2024-01-05", 0.1017], ["2024-01-06", 0.1031], ["2024-01-06", 0.1017], ["2024-01-06", 0.1022], ["2024-01-06", 0.0995], ["2024-01-07", 0.0995], ["2024-01-07", 0.1011], ["2024-01-08", 0.0986], ["2024-01-08", 0.0986], ["2024-01-08", 0.0986], ["2024-01-09", 0.0986], ["2024-01-10", 0.0966], ["2024-01-10", 0.0966], ["2024-01-10", 0.0966], ["2024-01-10", 0.0966], ["2024-01-11", 0.0966], ["2024-01-12", 0.0963], ["2024-01-12", 0.0963], ["2024-01-12", 0.0963]] | ["https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/further-details-about-attack-on-russian-command-post-near-sevastopol-emerge/ar-AA1h1jw9", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/belarus-leader-russian-nuclear-weapons-shipments-completed-raising-105911878", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-security-service-and-armed-forces-strike-russian-secret-base-in-occupied-melitopol-resulting-in-casualties/ar-AA1h3KyZ", "https://www.voanews.com/a/think-tank-rail-traffic-surge-on-north-korea-russia-border-suggests-arms-supply-to-russia/7302082.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-08-04 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2933 |
<p>While new jobs came in lighter than expected among economists in June 2023, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/jobs-report-june-2023-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in August 2023 (<a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" target="_blank">BLS</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-04 | Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6%? | 2023-07-12 | [["2023-07-18", 0.2], ["2023-07-18", 0.6], ["2023-07-18", 0.5], ["2023-07-18", 0.5075], ["2023-07-18", 0.408], ["2023-07-18", 0.4], ["2023-07-18", 0.3429], ["2023-07-19", 0.3625], ["2023-07-19", 0.3711], ["2023-07-19", 0.394], ["2023-07-19", 0.382], ["2023-07-19", 0.42], ["2023-07-19", 0.4183], ["2023-07-19", 0.4015], ["2023-07-19", 0.3977], ["2023-07-19", 0.3764], ["2023-07-19", 0.408], ["2023-07-20", 0.4231], ["2023-07-20", 0.4041], ["2023-07-20", 0.4289], ["2023-07-21", 0.4278], ["2023-07-21", 0.4237], ["2023-07-21", 0.4289], ["2023-07-21", 0.4305], ["2023-07-21", 0.4255], ["2023-07-21", 0.4271], ["2023-07-21", 0.4772], ["2023-07-21", 0.4756], ["2023-07-22", 0.4563], ["2023-07-23", 0.4317], ["2023-07-23", 0.41], ["2023-07-24", 0.4573], ["2023-07-24", 0.4227], ["2023-07-24", 0.4318], ["2023-07-24", 0.4408], ["2023-07-24", 0.4567], ["2023-07-24", 0.4775], ["2023-07-24", 0.4808], ["2023-07-24", 0.4985], ["2023-07-24", 0.4821], ["2023-07-24", 0.4671], ["2023-07-25", 0.5171], ["2023-07-25", 0.506], ["2023-07-25", 0.502], ["2023-07-25", 0.4747], ["2023-07-25", 0.4763], ["2023-07-25", 0.4681], ["2023-07-25", 0.4676], ["2023-07-25", 0.4694], ["2023-07-25", 0.4447], ["2023-07-25", 0.447], ["2023-07-25", 0.4467], ["2023-07-25", 0.4536], ["2023-07-25", 0.4426], ["2023-07-25", 0.4471], ["2023-07-25", 0.4476], ["2023-07-25", 0.4458], ["2023-07-25", 0.4559], ["2023-07-25", 0.4754], ["2023-07-25", 0.4745], ["2023-07-26", 0.4524], ["2023-07-27", 0.4538], ["2023-07-27", 0.4577], ["2023-07-27", 0.4645], ["2023-07-27", 0.452], ["2023-07-27", 0.4386], ["2023-07-27", 0.4431], ["2023-07-27", 0.4437], ["2023-07-27", 0.4367], ["2023-07-27", 0.4334], ["2023-07-27", 0.4352], ["2023-07-28", 0.4292], ["2023-07-28", 0.4419], ["2023-07-28", 0.4414], ["2023-07-29", 0.4433], ["2023-07-29", 0.441], ["2023-07-29", 0.4267], ["2023-07-30", 0.4073], ["2023-07-30", 0.4009], ["2023-07-30", 0.4077], ["2023-07-30", 0.4043], ["2023-07-30", 0.3848], ["2023-07-30", 0.3839], ["2023-07-31", 0.3913], ["2023-07-31", 0.3929], ["2023-07-31", 0.3933], ["2023-07-31", 0.3842], ["2023-07-31", 0.3838], ["2023-07-31", 0.3817], ["2023-07-31", 0.3775], ["2023-08-01", 0.3538], ["2023-08-01", 0.335], ["2023-08-01", 0.3375], ["2023-08-01", 0.3275], ["2023-08-01", 0.3221], ["2023-08-01", 0.3208], ["2023-08-01", 0.3168], ["2023-08-01", 0.3104], ["2023-08-01", 0.3064], ["2023-08-01", 0.316], ["2023-08-02", 0.3144], ["2023-08-02", 0.3124], ["2023-08-02", 0.3112], ["2023-08-02", 0.3146], ["2023-08-02", 0.3104], ["2023-08-02", 0.3088], ["2023-08-02", 0.3119], ["2023-08-02", 0.3092], ["2023-08-02", 0.2996], ["2023-08-02", 0.2969], ["2023-08-02", 0.3069], ["2023-08-02", 0.2988], ["2023-08-02", 0.2981], ["2023-08-02", 0.2935], ["2023-08-03", 0.2858], ["2023-08-03", 0.2885], ["2023-08-03", 0.2877], ["2023-08-03", 0.2773], ["2023-08-03", 0.2707], ["2023-08-03", 0.2707], ["2023-08-03", 0.2652], ["2023-08-03", 0.2685], ["2023-08-03", 0.2643], ["2023-08-03", 0.2572], ["2023-08-03", 0.2511], ["2023-08-03", 0.2496], ["2023-08-03", 0.2421], ["2023-08-03", 0.2414], ["2023-08-03", 0.2354], ["2023-08-03", 0.2366], ["2023-08-03", 0.24], ["2023-08-04", 0.237], ["2023-08-04", 0.237]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-shows-signs-stabilizing-lower-levels-july-ism-says-2023-08-01/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/02/private-sector-added-324000-jobs-in-july-well-above-expectations-adp-says.html", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2023-07-20/", "https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2012/05/18/the-relationships-among-changes-in-gdp-employment-and-unemployment-this-time-its-different", "https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RYGSSYT0G1KW", "https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf", "https://adpemploymentreport.com/", "https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-af1be1f6f26974ffc59fa44495158cc4", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-moderately-layoffs-drop-11-month-low-2023-08-03/", "https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0207", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf", "https://www.factcheck.org/2023/07/bidens-numbers-july-2023-update/", "https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2023-advance-estimate", "https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RYPU1ZDWLU68", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-economic-growth-accelerates-second-quarter-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-2023-07-27/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2023/07/27/the-advance-estimate-of-second-quarter-real-gdp/#:~:text=Real%20GDP%20grew%20at%20an,market%20expectations%20of%201.8%20percent", "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58957", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate?embed/forecast"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3091 | <p>Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips announced that he would challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination for president in 2024 (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democratic-rep-dean-phillips-launches-2024-white-house/story?id=104352110" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/28/dean-philips-joe-biden-threat-00124082" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024? | 2023-11-02 | [["2023-11-03", 0.66], ["2023-11-03", 0.57], ["2023-11-03", 0.4633], ["2023-11-03", 0.36], ["2023-11-03", 0.358], ["2023-11-03", 0.465], ["2023-11-03", 0.4057], ["2023-11-04", 0.4613], ["2023-11-04", 0.4322], ["2023-11-04", 0.389], ["2023-11-04", 0.379], ["2023-11-04", 0.3445], ["2023-11-05", 0.3825], ["2023-11-05", 0.3569], ["2023-11-05", 0.385], ["2023-11-05", 0.3493], ["2023-11-05", 0.326], ["2023-11-05", 0.3213], ["2023-11-05", 0.3494], ["2023-11-05", 0.3447], ["2023-11-05", 0.3753], ["2023-11-05", 0.3694], ["2023-11-05", 0.3511], ["2023-11-05", 0.3337], ["2023-11-05", 0.3195], ["2023-11-06", 0.3471], ["2023-11-06", 0.3314], ["2023-11-06", 0.333], ["2023-11-06", 0.3173], ["2023-11-07", 0.3094], ["2023-11-07", 0.2984], ["2023-11-07", 0.3094], ["2023-11-07", 0.3379], ["2023-11-07", 0.3435], ["2023-11-07", 0.361], ["2023-11-07", 0.357], ["2023-11-07", 0.3476], ["2023-11-08", 0.4082], ["2023-11-08", 0.3781], ["2023-11-08", 0.4], ["2023-11-08", 0.4265], ["2023-11-08", 0.4907], ["2023-11-09", 0.5114], ["2023-11-09", 0.5129], ["2023-11-09", 0.5], ["2023-11-09", 0.502], ["2023-11-10", 0.4957], ["2023-11-11", 0.5107], ["2023-11-11", 0.4643], ["2023-11-11", 0.4614], ["2023-11-12", 0.4736], ["2023-11-12", 0.4521], ["2023-11-13", 0.4457], ["2023-11-14", 0.4827], ["2023-11-14", 0.4927], ["2023-11-14", 0.482], ["2023-11-16", 0.426], ["2023-11-17", 0.4093], ["2023-11-17", 0.4025], ["2023-11-17", 0.3744], ["2023-11-18", 0.3725], ["2023-11-20", 0.335], ["2023-11-20", 0.335], ["2023-11-21", 0.3281], ["2023-11-21", 0.3144], ["2023-11-21", 0.3019], ["2023-11-21", 0.3019], ["2023-11-22", 0.2938], ["2023-11-22", 0.2824], ["2023-11-23", 0.2788], ["2023-11-23", 0.2729], ["2023-11-24", 0.2929], ["2023-11-24", 0.2876], ["2023-11-25", 0.3267], ["2023-11-25", 0.3178], ["2023-11-26", 0.3178], ["2023-11-26", 0.315], ["2023-11-26", 0.2817], ["2023-11-26", 0.2761], ["2023-11-28", 0.28], ["2023-11-28", 0.2761], ["2023-11-28", 0.2761], ["2023-11-29", 0.27], ["2023-12-02", 0.27], ["2023-12-03", 0.2689], ["2023-12-04", 0.3161], ["2023-12-04", 0.3156], ["2023-12-05", 0.3161], ["2023-12-05", 0.3094], ["2023-12-07", 0.3094], ["2023-12-07", 0.3039], ["2023-12-08", 0.3094], ["2023-12-08", 0.3039], ["2023-12-08", 0.2906], ["2023-12-11", 0.2906], ["2023-12-12", 0.2906], ["2023-12-12", 0.2889], ["2023-12-12", 0.2889], ["2023-12-13", 0.3211], ["2023-12-14", 0.3211], ["2023-12-14", 0.3079], ["2023-12-14", 0.3068], ["2023-12-15", 0.3068], ["2023-12-17", 0.3226], ["2023-12-19", 0.3226], ["2023-12-19", 0.3258], ["2023-12-20", 0.3258], ["2023-12-22", 0.3247], ["2023-12-23", 0.3247], ["2023-12-25", 0.3168], ["2023-12-26", 0.3153], ["2023-12-26", 0.3142], ["2023-12-26", 0.3135], ["2023-12-27", 0.3135], ["2023-12-29", 0.3135], ["2023-12-30", 0.306], ["2023-12-31", 0.305], ["2023-12-31", 0.302], ["2023-12-31", 0.2595], ["2024-01-02", 0.257], ["2024-01-02", 0.2555], ["2024-01-02", 0.2495], ["2024-01-03", 0.2], ["2024-01-03", 0.1965], ["2024-01-03", 0.1985], ["2024-01-03", 0.1935], ["2024-01-04", 0.184], ["2024-01-04", 0.1835], ["2024-01-04", 0.1825], ["2024-01-04", 0.1795], ["2024-01-04", 0.1862], ["2024-01-05", 0.1814], ["2024-01-08", 0.1714], ["2024-01-08", 0.1852], ["2024-01-08", 0.1805], ["2024-01-08", 0.1852], ["2024-01-09", 0.1895], ["2024-01-09", 0.1738], ["2024-01-11", 0.1733], ["2024-01-11", 0.1729], ["2024-01-11", 0.1729], ["2024-01-11", 0.1686], ["2024-01-12", 0.1632], ["2024-01-13", 0.1268], ["2024-01-13", 0.1268]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-anti-defeat-candidate/ar-AA1kj0dI", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/dean-phillips-2024-election-new-hampshire-primary/676058/", "https://youtu.be/1hh8lcoJ1NA?si=eujKpmXqWnjxxF5E", "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4344040-biden-primary-challengers-appear-televised-event-after-gop-debate/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/24/dean-phillips-chris-christie-nikki-haley-new-hampshire-independents-00128562"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3086 | <p>On 24 October 2024, the California Department of Motor Vehicles announced that it "notified Cruise that the department is suspending Cruise’s autonomous vehicle deployment and driverless testing permits, effective immediately. The DMV has provided Cruise with the steps needed to apply to reinstate its suspended permits, which the DMV will not approve until the company has fulfilled the requirements to the department’s satisfaction. This decision does not impact the company’s permit for testing with a safety driver" (<a href="https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/" target="_blank">California DMV</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-24/california-suspends-gm-cruises-driverless-autonomous-vehicle-permits" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Permitting a successor-in-interest of Cruise LLC would count, and the number of permitted vehicles is immaterial. The question will close as of the date new permits take effect.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the State of California again permit Cruise LLC to operate autonomous vehicles without backup/safety drivers on public roads before 30 March 2024? | 2023-10-27 | [["2023-10-27", 0.0], ["2023-10-27", 0.1], ["2023-10-27", 0.0667], ["2023-10-27", 0.2], ["2023-10-28", 0.16], ["2023-10-28", 0.15], ["2023-10-28", 0.1843], ["2023-10-28", 0.2863], ["2023-10-29", 0.2767], ["2023-10-29", 0.2767], ["2023-10-29", 0.274], ["2023-10-29", 0.2673], ["2023-10-29", 0.2682], ["2023-10-29", 0.2542], ["2023-10-29", 0.25], ["2023-10-29", 0.2464], ["2023-10-30", 0.244], ["2023-10-30", 0.2607], ["2023-10-31", 0.2714], ["2023-10-31", 0.2714], ["2023-10-31", 0.2862], ["2023-10-31", 0.2715], ["2023-10-31", 0.2857], ["2023-11-01", 0.2308], ["2023-11-01", 0.243], ["2023-11-02", 0.243], ["2023-11-02", 0.243], ["2023-11-03", 0.243], ["2023-11-04", 0.245], ["2023-11-05", 0.248], ["2023-11-05", 0.248], ["2023-11-05", 0.25], ["2023-11-06", 0.265], ["2023-11-06", 0.265], ["2023-11-07", 0.223], ["2023-11-07", 0.203], ["2023-11-08", 0.186], ["2023-11-08", 0.186], ["2023-11-08", 0.186], ["2023-11-09", 0.165], ["2023-11-09", 0.165], ["2023-11-10", 0.165], ["2023-11-11", 0.1545], ["2023-11-11", 0.1836], ["2023-11-12", 0.1918], ["2023-11-12", 0.1709], ["2023-11-13", 0.165], ["2023-11-13", 0.165], ["2023-11-14", 0.1267], ["2023-11-16", 0.13], ["2023-11-18", 0.1842], ["2023-11-19", 0.225], ["2023-11-20", 0.2183], ["2023-11-20", 0.2142], ["2023-11-20", 0.2075], ["2023-11-21", 0.2042], ["2023-11-23", 0.2025], ["2023-11-23", 0.2025], ["2023-11-24", 0.1983], ["2023-11-25", 0.1992], ["2023-11-25", 0.19], ["2023-11-26", 0.19], ["2023-11-27", 0.1823], ["2023-11-28", 0.1785], ["2023-11-28", 0.1738], ["2023-11-28", 0.1777], ["2023-11-29", 0.1777], ["2023-11-30", 0.1777], ["2023-12-03", 0.17], ["2023-12-03", 0.1708], ["2023-12-05", 0.17], ["2023-12-05", 0.1662], ["2023-12-05", 0.1631], ["2023-12-06", 0.1631], ["2023-12-07", 0.1631], ["2023-12-07", 0.1631], ["2023-12-10", 0.1646], ["2023-12-13", 0.1757], ["2023-12-14", 0.1829], ["2023-12-14", 0.1829], ["2023-12-17", 0.1843], ["2023-12-18", 0.1843], ["2023-12-18", 0.1843], ["2023-12-20", 0.1843], ["2023-12-21", 0.1843], ["2023-12-23", 0.1843], ["2023-12-27", 0.1843], ["2023-12-28", 0.1664], ["2024-01-01", 0.1307], ["2024-01-02", 0.13], ["2024-01-03", 0.1229], ["2024-01-03", 0.1229], ["2024-01-05", 0.1229], ["2024-01-05", 0.0879], ["2024-01-06", 0.0879], ["2024-01-09", 0.0879], ["2024-01-11", 0.0879], ["2024-01-12", 0.085], ["2024-01-12", 0.085]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/unions-urge-us-regulators-probe-waymo-zoox-after-cruise-crashes-2023-11-09/", "https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/04/cruise_pedestrian_california/", "https://news.yahoo.com/california-approves-robotaxi-expansion-san-081339389.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/investors-pull-away-gms-cruise-bet-2023-11-10/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-buys-softbank-vision-funds-stake-cruise-21-bln-2022-03-18/", "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_09112023-pdf/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/23/gavin-newsom-autonomous-vehicles-00112358", "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_09272023-pdf/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-safety-agency-investigating-two-new-gm-cruise-crash-reports-2023-10-26/", "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-collision-reports/", "https://www.reddit.com/r/sanfrancisco/comments/16bp4yl/waymos_autonomous_vehicles_are_significantly/", "https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/20/23969039/gm-cruise-kyle-vogt-ceo-resign-driverless-bet"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3102 | <p>On 18 October 2023, the US announced a deal with the Maduro government in Venezuela where the US would lift some sanctions in exchange for basic conditions being met for Venezuela's next presidential election (<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-eases-oil-and-gold-sanctions-on-venezuela-after-electoral-roadmap-signed" target="_blank">PBS</a>, <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1822" target="_blank">US Dept. of Treasury</a>). General License No. 44, "Authorizing Transactions Related to Oil or Gas Sector Operations in Venezuela," is scheduled to expire after 12:01 AM EDT on 18 April 2024 (<a href="https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932231/download?inline" target="_blank">US Dept. of Treasury - Office of Foreign Assets Control</a>). Any renewal that includes limits that did not exist when the license was issued (e.g., including a cap on the quantity involved or value of transactions) would not count. If the US either revokes or amends the license so as to limit its scope before a renewal, the question would close "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 19 April 2024, will the United States renew or extend its general license as issued on 18 October 2023 authorizing transactions related to oil or gas operations in Venezuela? | 2023-11-09 | [["2023-11-10", 0.55], ["2023-11-10", 0.535], ["2023-11-10", 0.58], ["2023-11-10", 0.6475], ["2023-11-10", 0.65], ["2023-11-11", 0.63], ["2023-11-11", 0.628], ["2023-11-11", 0.69], ["2023-11-12", 0.6714], ["2023-11-12", 0.6588], ["2023-11-12", 0.6575], ["2023-11-12", 0.6322], ["2023-11-12", 0.639], ["2023-11-12", 0.6336], ["2023-11-12", 0.6518], ["2023-11-12", 0.6808], ["2023-11-13", 0.6938], ["2023-11-13", 0.7157], ["2023-11-13", 0.7207], ["2023-11-13", 0.724], ["2023-11-13", 0.735], ["2023-11-14", 0.7562], ["2023-11-14", 0.7736], ["2023-11-15", 0.82], ["2023-11-16", 0.854], ["2023-11-18", 0.854], ["2023-11-18", 0.859], ["2023-11-18", 0.859], ["2023-11-19", 0.833], ["2023-11-20", 0.833], ["2023-11-20", 0.791], ["2023-11-21", 0.802], ["2023-11-22", 0.717], ["2023-11-26", 0.682], ["2023-11-26", 0.627], ["2023-11-27", 0.577], ["2023-11-27", 0.586], ["2023-11-27", 0.566], ["2023-11-28", 0.546], ["2023-11-28", 0.545], ["2023-11-28", 0.555], ["2023-12-01", 0.565], ["2023-12-01", 0.57], ["2023-12-02", 0.552], ["2023-12-03", 0.542], ["2023-12-05", 0.532], ["2023-12-05", 0.536], ["2023-12-05", 0.531], ["2023-12-05", 0.527], ["2023-12-06", 0.523], ["2023-12-07", 0.502], ["2023-12-07", 0.455], ["2023-12-07", 0.358], ["2023-12-07", 0.348], ["2023-12-08", 0.347], ["2023-12-11", 0.344], ["2023-12-12", 0.33], ["2023-12-13", 0.328], ["2023-12-14", 0.328], ["2023-12-15", 0.334], ["2023-12-15", 0.34], ["2023-12-17", 0.375], ["2023-12-19", 0.383], ["2023-12-19", 0.377], ["2023-12-20", 0.404], ["2023-12-20", 0.406], ["2023-12-21", 0.406], ["2023-12-22", 0.416], ["2023-12-22", 0.417], ["2023-12-23", 0.417], ["2023-12-26", 0.424], ["2023-12-26", 0.4764], ["2023-12-27", 0.4818], ["2023-12-28", 0.4827], ["2023-12-29", 0.4864], ["2023-12-31", 0.49], ["2024-01-01", 0.5736], ["2024-01-02", 0.5818], ["2024-01-02", 0.5918], ["2024-01-03", 0.615], ["2024-01-03", 0.6233], ["2024-01-03", 0.6433], ["2024-01-04", 0.6517], ["2024-01-05", 0.6517], ["2024-01-08", 0.6558], ["2024-01-09", 0.6617], ["2024-01-11", 0.6617], ["2024-01-12", 0.6617]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-its-ready-pause-sanctions-relief-venezuela-unless-further-progress-seen-2023-12-01/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-threatening-reimpose-venezuelan-sanctions-if-commitments-not-kept-2023-11-30/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us-engaging-with-venezuela-amid-sanctions-reconsideration-official-2023-12-05/", "https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-biden-oil-sanctions-arrests-743eb9bfd6ab3c62c41ce4099e221843", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-has-freed-close-ally-venezuela-president-swap-jailed-americans-ap-2023-12-20/", "https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-opposition-referendum-machado-guaido-0f615a5aa835a4cae7d83403321c6c6d"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3190 | <p>Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (<a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a" target="_blank">News.com.au</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-images-us-china-taiwan-itu-aba-island-south-china-sea-1841385" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/08/15/2003804767" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 January 2025, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization? | 2023-12-29 | [["2023-12-29", 0.01], ["2023-12-29", 0.005], ["2023-12-29", 0.24], ["2023-12-29", 0.255], ["2023-12-29", 0.204], ["2023-12-29", 0.195], ["2023-12-29", 0.1886], ["2023-12-30", 0.265], ["2023-12-30", 0.3467], ["2023-12-30", 0.391], ["2023-12-30", 0.3555], ["2023-12-30", 0.3467], ["2023-12-30", 0.3315], ["2023-12-30", 0.3436], ["2023-12-30", 0.374], ["2023-12-30", 0.3825], ["2023-12-31", 0.3629], ["2023-12-31", 0.3456], ["2023-12-31", 0.3374], ["2023-12-31", 0.3347], ["2023-12-31", 0.323], ["2023-12-31", 0.3076], ["2023-12-31", 0.295], ["2023-12-31", 0.2891], ["2023-12-31", 0.2891], ["2023-12-31", 0.2792], ["2023-12-31", 0.27], ["2023-12-31", 0.2635], ["2024-01-01", 0.2833], ["2024-01-01", 0.2833], ["2024-01-01", 0.2825], ["2024-01-01", 0.2934], ["2024-01-01", 0.29], ["2024-01-01", 0.2962], ["2024-01-01", 0.3014], ["2024-01-01", 0.2928], ["2024-01-01", 0.2863], ["2024-01-02", 0.226], ["2024-01-02", 0.187], ["2024-01-02", 0.187], ["2024-01-02", 0.1833], ["2024-01-02", 0.1621], ["2024-01-02", 0.1596], ["2024-01-02", 0.1592], ["2024-01-03", 0.1652], ["2024-01-03", 0.1663], ["2024-01-03", 0.1838], ["2024-01-04", 0.2141], ["2024-01-04", 0.2489], ["2024-01-04", 0.2128], ["2024-01-05", 0.1794], ["2024-01-05", 0.1794], ["2024-01-07", 0.1744], ["2024-01-07", 0.1705], ["2024-01-07", 0.1363], ["2024-01-07", 0.1405], ["2024-01-08", 0.1432], ["2024-01-08", 0.1421], ["2024-01-09", 0.1525], ["2024-01-09", 0.157], ["2024-01-09", 0.1555], ["2024-01-09", 0.1555], ["2024-01-11", 0.1555], ["2024-01-12", 0.1565], ["2024-01-12", 0.1565]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratas_Island"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-10-09 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3012 |
<p>Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (<a href="https://ischoolconnect.com/blog/top-universities-with-most-nobel-prize-winners/" target="_blank">iSchoolConnect</a>). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 9 October 2023 (<a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/about/prize-announcement-dates/" target="_blank">Nobel Prize Announcement Dates</a>). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-09 | Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced? | 2023-09-08 | [["2023-09-11", 0.85], ["2023-09-11", 0.495], ["2023-09-11", 0.4033], ["2023-09-11", 0.4167], ["2023-09-11", 0.5625], ["2023-09-11", 0.55], ["2023-09-11", 0.4917], ["2023-09-11", 0.45], ["2023-09-11", 0.435], ["2023-09-11", 0.4011], ["2023-09-11", 0.4011], ["2023-09-12", 0.4], ["2023-09-12", 0.3955], ["2023-09-12", 0.3792], ["2023-09-12", 0.375], ["2023-09-12", 0.3769], ["2023-09-12", 0.35], ["2023-09-12", 0.3707], ["2023-09-12", 0.3631], ["2023-09-12", 0.3741], ["2023-09-12", 0.3883], ["2023-09-13", 0.4047], ["2023-09-13", 0.4084], ["2023-09-13", 0.4105], ["2023-09-13", 0.413], ["2023-09-13", 0.4162], ["2023-09-13", 0.42], ["2023-09-14", 0.4365], ["2023-09-14", 0.396], ["2023-09-14", 0.3957], ["2023-09-14", 0.4163], ["2023-09-14", 0.4168], ["2023-09-14", 0.4521], ["2023-09-15", 0.4395], ["2023-09-15", 0.44], ["2023-09-15", 0.4377], ["2023-09-15", 0.4336], ["2023-09-15", 0.445], ["2023-09-15", 0.4725], ["2023-09-15", 0.4784], ["2023-09-15", 0.4745], ["2023-09-16", 0.4912], ["2023-09-16", 0.4959], ["2023-09-16", 0.5133], ["2023-09-16", 0.5063], ["2023-09-17", 0.4867], ["2023-09-17", 0.4938], ["2023-09-17", 0.505], ["2023-09-17", 0.4863], ["2023-09-17", 0.4863], ["2023-09-18", 0.4694], ["2023-09-18", 0.4718], ["2023-09-18", 0.4476], ["2023-09-18", 0.4506], ["2023-09-18", 0.4582], ["2023-09-18", 0.4588], ["2023-09-18", 0.4572], ["2023-09-18", 0.4667], ["2023-09-18", 0.4583], ["2023-09-18", 0.445], ["2023-09-19", 0.4268], ["2023-09-19", 0.4305], ["2023-09-19", 0.427], ["2023-09-19", 0.418], ["2023-09-19", 0.396], ["2023-09-19", 0.396], ["2023-09-19", 0.396], ["2023-09-19", 0.4055], ["2023-09-19", 0.4119], ["2023-09-19", 0.4], ["2023-09-20", 0.401], ["2023-09-20", 0.3964], ["2023-09-20", 0.3917], ["2023-09-20", 0.3909], ["2023-09-20", 0.3825], ["2023-09-20", 0.3858], ["2023-09-20", 0.3833], ["2023-09-20", 0.3842], ["2023-09-20", 0.3748], ["2023-09-20", 0.3728], ["2023-09-20", 0.3748], ["2023-09-20", 0.372], ["2023-09-20", 0.3724], ["2023-09-20", 0.3704], ["2023-09-20", 0.3704], ["2023-09-20", 0.3646], ["2023-09-20", 0.3565], ["2023-09-20", 0.3507], ["2023-09-20", 0.3471], ["2023-09-20", 0.3438], ["2023-09-20", 0.3423], ["2023-09-21", 0.3423], ["2023-09-21", 0.3463], ["2023-09-21", 0.3403], ["2023-09-21", 0.3384], ["2023-09-21", 0.3282], ["2023-09-21", 0.3282], ["2023-09-21", 0.3274], ["2023-09-21", 0.3269], ["2023-09-21", 0.3118], ["2023-09-21", 0.3088], ["2023-09-21", 0.3071], ["2023-09-21", 0.304], ["2023-09-21", 0.3058], ["2023-09-21", 0.3084], ["2023-09-21", 0.3076], ["2023-09-21", 0.3075], ["2023-09-21", 0.3083], ["2023-09-21", 0.3049], ["2023-09-21", 0.3068], ["2023-09-21", 0.3068], ["2023-09-22", 0.3169], 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0.4107], ["2023-10-01", 0.4112], ["2023-10-01", 0.4098], ["2023-10-01", 0.4098], ["2023-10-01", 0.4098], ["2023-10-01", 0.4164], ["2023-10-01", 0.4082], ["2023-10-02", 0.4032], ["2023-10-02", 0.4013], ["2023-10-02", 0.4073], ["2023-10-02", 0.4056], ["2023-10-02", 0.4073], ["2023-10-02", 0.4069], ["2023-10-02", 0.4132], ["2023-10-02", 0.4189], ["2023-10-02", 0.4181], ["2023-10-02", 0.41], ["2023-10-02", 0.4097], ["2023-10-03", 0.4147], ["2023-10-03", 0.4123], ["2023-10-03", 0.4082], ["2023-10-03", 0.4123], ["2023-10-03", 0.4131], ["2023-10-03", 0.4098], ["2023-10-03", 0.425], ["2023-10-03", 0.4252], ["2023-10-03", 0.4252], ["2023-10-03", 0.42], ["2023-10-03", 0.4181], ["2023-10-03", 0.413], ["2023-10-03", 0.4146], ["2023-10-03", 0.4149], ["2023-10-03", 0.4189], ["2023-10-03", 0.4297], ["2023-10-03", 0.4325], ["2023-10-03", 0.4373], ["2023-10-03", 0.4349], ["2023-10-03", 0.4354], ["2023-10-04", 0.4275], ["2023-10-04", 0.4284], ["2023-10-04", 0.4266], ["2023-10-04", 0.4259], ["2023-10-04", 0.4244], ["2023-10-04", 0.4241], ["2023-10-04", 0.4217], ["2023-10-05", 0.4272], ["2023-10-05", 0.4297], ["2023-10-06", 0.4273], ["2023-10-06", 0.4273], ["2023-10-06", 0.4328], ["2023-10-06", 0.4333], ["2023-10-06", 0.4325], ["2023-10-06", 0.4375], ["2023-10-06", 0.4375], ["2023-10-06", 0.4352], ["2023-10-06", 0.4352], ["2023-10-07", 0.4359], ["2023-10-07", 0.4364], ["2023-10-07", 0.4356], ["2023-10-07", 0.4417], ["2023-10-07", 0.4427], ["2023-10-07", 0.4356], ["2023-10-07", 0.4388], ["2023-10-07", 0.4394], ["2023-10-08", 0.44], ["2023-10-08", 0.44], ["2023-10-08", 0.4439], ["2023-10-08", 0.4409], ["2023-10-08", 0.4394], ["2023-10-09", 0.4403], ["2023-10-09", 0.4386], ["2023-10-09", 0.4391], ["2023-10-09", 0.4472], ["2023-10-09", 0.4472]] | ["https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/hall-of-citation-laureates/?citation-laureate-fields=economics&wpv_aux_current_post_id=229322&wpv_aux_parent_post_id=229322&wpv_view_count=146322&wpv-citation-laureate-award-year=2014", "https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2021/", "https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Statistik-der-Woche-Von-welchen-Instituten-die-meisten-Nobelpreistraeger-kamen-9315564.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Clarivate_Citation_laureates_in_Economic_Sciences", "https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/katalin-kariko-and-drew-weissman-penns-historic-mrna-vaccine-research-team-win-2023-nobel", "https://insidestory.org.au/what-the-nobel-prize-tells-us-about-economics/", "https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/economics-2023/", "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-prizes-in-economic-sciences/", "https://www.hse.ru/en/news/community/862148382.html#:~:text=According%20to%20Clarivate%2C%20the%20winners,understanding%20the%20determinants%20of%20economic", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338487/nobel-prize-economics-most-winners-university/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Memorial_Prize_laureates_in_Economic_Sciences", "https://www.hse.ru/en/news/community/862148382.html", "https://causalinf.substack.com/p/chatgpt-4-and-bing-predict-2023-winners", "https://web.ornl.gov/sci/first/ClarivateAnalyticsCitationLaureates.pdf", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medal", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_laureates_by_university_affiliation", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarivate-reveals-citation-laureates-2022--annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class-301628766.html", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2023--annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class-301931237.html", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338487/nobel-prize-economics-most-winners-university/%22", "https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-reveals-2020-citation-laureates-annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class/", "https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/who-could-win-this-year-s-nobel-prize-for-economics-11695649415696.html", "https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2023-annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class/", "https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html", "https://clarivate.com/news/the-web-of-science-group-reveals-annual-citation-laureates-of-nobel-class/", "https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/predicting-years-nobel-prize-economics-narayan-ramachandran/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3188 | <p>The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 sent shock waves through financial markets that regulators hope to prevent in the future (<a href="https://www.americanbanker.com/list/dramatic-collapses-made-2023-the-biggest-year-ever-for-bank-failures" target="_blank">American Banker</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-12-06/us-regulators-clamp-down-in-bid-to-prevent-more-bank-failures" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 30 September 2023 (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/alvarez20100901a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Wachovia</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will any of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US fail in 2024? | 2023-12-28 | [["2023-12-29", 0.1], ["2023-12-29", 0.175], ["2023-12-29", 0.15], ["2023-12-29", 0.1625], ["2023-12-29", 0.178], ["2023-12-29", 0.19], ["2023-12-30", 0.1729], ["2023-12-30", 0.2763], ["2023-12-30", 0.27], ["2023-12-30", 0.243], ["2023-12-30", 0.3018], ["2023-12-30", 0.2767], ["2023-12-30", 0.31], ["2023-12-30", 0.295], ["2023-12-30", 0.322], ["2023-12-30", 0.3269], ["2023-12-30", 0.3135], ["2023-12-31", 0.3044], ["2023-12-31", 0.2937], ["2023-12-31", 0.2865], ["2023-12-31", 0.284], ["2023-12-31", 0.2795], ["2023-12-31", 0.3009], ["2023-12-31", 0.2964], ["2023-12-31", 0.2926], ["2023-12-31", 0.2838], ["2023-12-31", 0.2732], ["2023-12-31", 0.2665], ["2023-12-31", 0.2678], ["2023-12-31", 0.26], ["2023-12-31", 0.2514], ["2024-01-01", 0.2763], ["2024-01-01", 0.269], ["2024-01-01", 0.2687], ["2024-01-01", 0.2916], ["2024-01-01", 0.3009], ["2024-01-01", 0.2773], ["2024-01-01", 0.2742], ["2024-01-01", 0.2706], ["2024-01-01", 0.28], ["2024-01-01", 0.2734], ["2024-01-01", 0.2794], ["2024-01-01", 0.2809], ["2024-01-01", 0.2758], ["2024-01-01", 0.2768], ["2024-01-01", 0.2721], ["2024-01-01", 0.2658], ["2024-01-01", 0.2621], ["2024-01-01", 0.2631], ["2024-01-02", 0.2747], ["2024-01-02", 0.2631], ["2024-01-02", 0.2518], ["2024-01-02", 0.2641], ["2024-01-02", 0.2613], ["2024-01-02", 0.2776], ["2024-01-03", 0.2915], ["2024-01-03", 0.3089], ["2024-01-03", 0.2889], ["2024-01-04", 0.3152], ["2024-01-04", 0.3144], ["2024-01-05", 0.2827], ["2024-01-06", 0.2823], ["2024-01-07", 0.3045], ["2024-01-07", 0.2978], ["2024-01-07", 0.3017], ["2024-01-08", 0.2774], ["2024-01-08", 0.2658], ["2024-01-10", 0.2692], ["2024-01-10", 0.2842], ["2024-01-10", 0.2768], ["2024-01-10", 0.2876], ["2024-01-11", 0.2876], ["2024-01-12", 0.2876], ["2024-01-12", 0.315], ["2024-01-13", 0.315]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3182 | <p>On 27 December 2023, the New York Times Company (NY Times) filed a civil complaint in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York seeking, among other things, action by the court to prevent Microsoft and OpenAI from using its intellectual property to train LLMs like ChatGPT without compensation (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nyt-new-york-times-openai-microsoft-6ea53a8ad3efa06ee4643b697df0ba57" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/27/new-york-times-sues-microsoft-chatgpt-maker-openai-over-copyright-infringement.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2023/12/NYT_Complaint_Dec2023.pdf" target="_blank">NY Times v. Microsoft, et al.</a>). Whether the relief takes the form of an injunction or restraining order is immaterial (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/injunctive_relief" target="_blank">Cornell - Injunctive Relief</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_65" target="_blank">Cornell - FRCP Rule 65</a>). Injunctive relief as to the use of an LLM trained with NY Times' copyrighted material would count. Whether injunctive relief is stayed pending appeal is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In NY Times v. Microsoft/OpenAI, will a federal court issue any injunctive relief for the NY Times against any named defendant related to the use of its copyrighted materials to train large language models (LLMs) before 29 June 2024? | 2023-12-28 | [["2023-12-29", 1.0], ["2023-12-29", 0.575], ["2023-12-29", 0.5], ["2023-12-29", 0.475], ["2023-12-29", 0.48], ["2023-12-29", 0.45], ["2023-12-30", 0.4571], ["2023-12-30", 0.525], ["2023-12-30", 0.5333], ["2023-12-30", 0.545], ["2023-12-30", 0.5427], ["2023-12-30", 0.5558], ["2023-12-30", 0.5592], ["2023-12-30", 0.5693], ["2023-12-30", 0.5643], ["2023-12-30", 0.54], ["2023-12-30", 0.5467], ["2023-12-31", 0.5375], ["2023-12-31", 0.5313], ["2023-12-31", 0.5118], ["2023-12-31", 0.5117], ["2023-12-31", 0.5295], ["2023-12-31", 0.5232], ["2023-12-31", 0.525], ["2023-12-31", 0.5262], ["2023-12-31", 0.5114], ["2024-01-01", 0.5109], ["2024-01-01", 0.5313], ["2024-01-01", 0.536], ["2024-01-01", 0.5384], ["2024-01-01", 0.5273], ["2024-01-01", 0.5356], ["2024-01-02", 0.558], ["2024-01-02", 0.5457], ["2024-01-03", 0.6062], ["2024-01-03", 0.5908], ["2024-01-04", 0.5877], ["2024-01-04", 0.5562], ["2024-01-04", 0.5638], ["2024-01-05", 0.5379], ["2024-01-05", 0.5371], ["2024-01-05", 0.555], ["2024-01-06", 0.595], ["2024-01-06", 0.5629], ["2024-01-06", 0.5064], ["2024-01-07", 0.4929], ["2024-01-07", 0.4879], ["2024-01-07", 0.4773], ["2024-01-07", 0.494], ["2024-01-08", 0.4867], ["2024-01-08", 0.44], ["2024-01-09", 0.42], ["2024-01-09", 0.4], ["2024-01-09", 0.3944], ["2024-01-10", 0.3938], ["2024-01-11", 0.3938], ["2024-01-11", 0.3906], ["2024-01-12", 0.3663], ["2024-01-12", 0.3663]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2950 | <p>President Biden announced in April 2023 that he was running for reelection, there's ongoing speculation that he may drop out of the race (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/politics/biden-reelection-campaign/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/17/biden-re-election-campaign-2024" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Biden no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will President Joe Biden cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024? | 2023-07-21 | [["2023-07-21", 0.315], ["2023-07-21", 0.5575], ["2023-07-21", 0.48], ["2023-07-21", 0.4413], ["2023-07-21", 0.358], ["2023-07-21", 0.3364], ["2023-07-21", 0.3309], ["2023-07-22", 0.2862], ["2023-07-22", 0.316], ["2023-07-22", 0.3141], ["2023-07-22", 0.2483], ["2023-07-22", 0.2658], ["2023-07-22", 0.2476], ["2023-07-22", 0.2391], ["2023-07-22", 0.2254], ["2023-07-22", 0.2119], ["2023-07-23", 0.2039], ["2023-07-23", 0.212], ["2023-07-23", 0.2206], ["2023-07-23", 0.2159], ["2023-07-23", 0.2166], ["2023-07-23", 0.2054], ["2023-07-24", 0.1969], ["2023-07-24", 0.1958], ["2023-07-24", 0.1861], ["2023-07-24", 0.1823], ["2023-07-24", 0.1811], ["2023-07-24", 0.1711], ["2023-07-24", 0.1627], ["2023-07-24", 0.1556], ["2023-07-24", 0.1649], ["2023-07-25", 0.1686], ["2023-07-25", 0.1626], ["2023-07-25", 0.1585], ["2023-07-25", 0.159], ["2023-07-25", 0.1608], ["2023-07-25", 0.1583], ["2023-07-25", 0.1753], ["2023-07-26", 0.1793], ["2023-07-26", 0.1815], ["2023-07-26", 0.1761], ["2023-07-26", 0.2062], ["2023-07-27", 0.2206], ["2023-07-27", 0.2233], ["2023-07-27", 0.2433], ["2023-07-30", 0.2517], ["2023-07-31", 0.2417], ["2023-07-31", 0.2243], ["2023-07-31", 0.2263], ["2023-08-01", 0.238], ["2023-08-01", 0.2374], ["2023-08-02", 0.2387], ["2023-08-02", 0.2347], ["2023-08-02", 0.2388], ["2023-08-02", 0.2397], ["2023-08-04", 0.2318], ["2023-08-04", 0.2348], ["2023-08-04", 0.235], ["2023-08-04", 0.2341], ["2023-08-04", 0.2488], ["2023-08-05", 0.2389], ["2023-08-06", 0.2389], ["2023-08-07", 0.2328], ["2023-08-07", 0.23], ["2023-08-08", 0.2122], ["2023-08-08", 0.213], ["2023-08-09", 0.1905], ["2023-08-09", 0.1905], ["2023-08-10", 0.1839], ["2023-08-11", 0.1818], ["2023-08-13", 0.1961], ["2023-08-17", 0.1926], ["2023-08-18", 0.1879], ["2023-08-20", 0.1877], ["2023-08-21", 0.1849], ["2023-08-22", 0.1846], ["2023-08-23", 0.1641], ["2023-08-24", 0.1597], ["2023-08-25", 0.1592], ["2023-08-28", 0.1572], ["2023-08-29", 0.1638], ["2023-08-29", 0.1655], ["2023-08-30", 0.1638], ["2023-09-01", 0.1628], ["2023-09-01", 0.142], ["2023-09-02", 0.1403], ["2023-09-04", 0.131], ["2023-09-05", 0.1302], ["2023-09-06", 0.1281], ["2023-09-08", 0.1245], ["2023-09-09", 0.1243], ["2023-09-10", 0.1179], ["2023-09-12", 0.1188], ["2023-09-13", 0.1224], ["2023-09-13", 0.1226], ["2023-09-13", 0.1238], ["2023-09-14", 0.1221], ["2023-09-14", 0.1098], ["2023-09-15", 0.1081], ["2023-09-15", 0.107], ["2023-09-17", 0.1074], ["2023-09-18", 0.0944], ["2023-09-19", 0.1009], ["2023-09-20", 0.0989], ["2023-09-21", 0.0986], ["2023-09-22", 0.1032], ["2023-09-23", 0.1124], ["2023-09-24", 0.1124], ["2023-09-25", 0.1262], ["2023-09-26", 0.1347], ["2023-09-28", 0.1353], ["2023-09-29", 0.1448], ["2023-09-30", 0.146], ["2023-09-30", 0.147], ["2023-10-01", 0.1462], ["2023-10-01", 0.1462], ["2023-10-02", 0.1427], ["2023-10-03", 0.1421], ["2023-10-04", 0.1315], ["2023-10-04", 0.1323], ["2023-10-04", 0.1331], ["2023-10-06", 0.1376], ["2023-10-08", 0.1398], ["2023-10-10", 0.1398], ["2023-10-11", 0.1416], ["2023-10-12", 0.1416], ["2023-10-12", 0.142], ["2023-10-12", 0.1431], ["2023-10-14", 0.1431], ["2023-10-16", 0.1433], ["2023-10-16", 0.1431], ["2023-10-16", 0.142], ["2023-10-18", 0.1392], ["2023-10-18", 0.1396], ["2023-10-20", 0.1384], ["2023-10-23", 0.1392], ["2023-10-26", 0.138], ["2023-10-27", 0.1358], ["2023-10-27", 0.147], ["2023-10-28", 0.1462], ["2023-10-30", 0.1452], ["2023-10-30", 0.1452], ["2023-10-31", 0.145], ["2023-11-01", 0.1436], ["2023-11-01", 0.158], ["2023-11-03", 0.1561], ["2023-11-04", 0.1563], ["2023-11-04", 0.1555], ["2023-11-05", 0.1467], ["2023-11-06", 0.1583], ["2023-11-08", 0.1585], ["2023-11-08", 0.1585], ["2023-11-08", 0.1596], ["2023-11-09", 0.1606], ["2023-11-10", 0.1602], ["2023-11-12", 0.1606], ["2023-11-13", 0.1492], ["2023-11-13", 0.1469], ["2023-11-13", 0.1462], ["2023-11-14", 0.1423], ["2023-11-15", 0.1423], ["2023-11-16", 0.1423], ["2023-11-17", 0.1391], ["2023-11-18", 0.1398], ["2023-11-20", 0.1396], ["2023-11-20", 0.1402], ["2023-11-21", 0.1306], ["2023-11-22", 0.126], ["2023-11-23", 0.1258], ["2023-11-23", 0.1419], ["2023-11-24", 0.1419], ["2023-11-25", 0.1431], ["2023-11-26", 0.1439], ["2023-11-26", 0.1446], ["2023-11-27", 0.1443], ["2023-11-28", 0.1428], ["2023-11-29", 0.1462], ["2023-11-30", 0.1462], ["2023-12-02", 0.1444], ["2023-12-03", 0.1444], ["2023-12-03", 0.1447], ["2023-12-04", 0.1371], ["2023-12-04", 0.1363], ["2023-12-05", 0.1402], ["2023-12-06", 0.1421], ["2023-12-06", 0.1429], ["2023-12-07", 0.138], ["2023-12-08", 0.1382], ["2023-12-09", 0.1377], ["2023-12-12", 0.1375], ["2023-12-12", 0.1375], ["2023-12-13", 0.1375], ["2023-12-14", 0.1358], ["2023-12-14", 0.1358], ["2023-12-14", 0.1377], ["2023-12-15", 0.1372], ["2023-12-16", 0.1389], ["2023-12-19", 0.1366], ["2023-12-20", 0.1367], ["2023-12-20", 0.1291], ["2023-12-21", 0.1198], ["2023-12-23", 0.1174], ["2023-12-25", 0.1145], ["2023-12-25", 0.0997], ["2023-12-25", 0.0959], ["2023-12-26", 0.0936], ["2023-12-26", 0.0927], ["2023-12-26", 0.0905], ["2023-12-27", 0.0925], ["2023-12-27", 0.0913], ["2023-12-27", 0.0893], ["2023-12-28", 0.0884], ["2023-12-28", 0.088], ["2023-12-29", 0.0876], ["2023-12-29", 0.0866], ["2023-12-29", 0.0829], ["2023-12-29", 0.0813], ["2023-12-30", 0.0923], ["2023-12-30", 0.0926], ["2023-12-31", 0.0914], ["2024-01-01", 0.1013], ["2024-01-01", 0.1003], ["2024-01-02", 0.1], ["2024-01-02", 0.0858], ["2024-01-02", 0.0845], ["2024-01-02", 0.0817], ["2024-01-02", 0.07], ["2024-01-03", 0.0692], ["2024-01-03", 0.0683], ["2024-01-03", 0.0682], ["2024-01-04", 0.067], ["2024-01-04", 0.0639], ["2024-01-04", 0.0642], ["2024-01-04", 0.0642], ["2024-01-04", 0.0633], ["2024-01-05", 0.0626], ["2024-01-06", 0.0629], ["2024-01-06", 0.062], ["2024-01-07", 0.0618], ["2024-01-07", 0.0767], ["2024-01-08", 0.076], ["2024-01-08", 0.0757], ["2024-01-08", 0.0754], ["2024-01-08", 0.0604], ["2024-01-08", 0.0603], ["2024-01-08", 0.0581], ["2024-01-08", 0.0579], ["2024-01-09", 0.0576], ["2024-01-09", 0.0579], ["2024-01-09", 0.0638], ["2024-01-10", 0.062], ["2024-01-10", 0.0626], ["2024-01-10", 0.0627], ["2024-01-10", 0.0621], ["2024-01-11", 0.063], ["2024-01-11", 0.0619], ["2024-01-11", 0.0617], ["2024-01-12", 0.0611], ["2024-01-12", 0.0587], ["2024-01-12", 0.057], ["2024-01-13", 0.0561], ["2024-01-13", 0.0561]] | ["https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-tops-trump-and-other-takeaways-from-latest-2024-campaign-fundraising-1d1583e9", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/politics/biden-reelection-worries-dean-phillips/", "https://apnews.com/article/recession-economy-inflation-jobs-unemployment-2ad91e65f4c0c79ebd2518e351934605", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/what-wall-streets-top-recession-gauge-is-saying-now-67232353", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/24/politics/biden-remarks-initial-hostage-release-israel-gaza/index.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/24/dean-phillips-chris-christie-nikki-haley-new-hampshire-independents-00128562", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/11/biden-age-2024-reelection-00120855", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/28/the-case-for-panicking-over-bidens-reelection-campaign-00118948", "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/new-hampshire", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mitt-romney-retire-us-senate-after-wild-ride-through-republican-politics-2023-09-13/", "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107050/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tGd_9Tahzw", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/03/trump-biden-again-2024-repeat-stuck/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cnn-poll-majority-americans-think-biden-directly-involved-hunters-dealings-while-vp", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/13/biden-reelection-economic-model-00126354", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/dean-phillips-2024-election-new-hampshire-primary/676058/", "https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-13/powell-s-fed-let-the-us-economy-get-too-hot-for-a-soft-landing#xj4y7vzkg", "https://apple.news/Amsei-YRjQ--oHD7Mi32W4A", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/us/politics/biden-trump-second-term.html", "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/iowa-caucus", "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/29/behind-the-curtain-bidens-horror-shows", "https://macleans.ca/politics/why-seniors-shouldnt-get-discounts/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/09/haley-electability-trump-biden-polls-00130926"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3175 | <p>After years of negotiations between EU institutions and member states, the European Parliament reached a political agreement with the European Council to move the EU AI Act forward toward adoption (<a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20231206IPR15699/artificial-intelligence-act-deal-on-comprehensive-rules-for-trustworthy-ai" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/13/23999849/eu-ai-act-artificial-intelligence-regulations-complicated-delays" target="_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-strikes-tentative-deal-ai-act-artificial-intelligence/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence" target="_blank">European Parliament - Legislative Train Schedule</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the adopted EU Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act be published in the Official Journal of the European Union before 25 May 2024? | 2023-12-21 | [["2023-12-22", 0.35], ["2023-12-22", 0.325], ["2023-12-22", 0.55], ["2023-12-22", 0.5575], ["2023-12-22", 0.52], ["2023-12-23", 0.5467], ["2023-12-24", 0.5257], ["2023-12-24", 0.5475], ["2023-12-24", 0.5489], ["2023-12-25", 0.509], ["2023-12-27", 0.509], ["2023-12-27", 0.559], ["2023-12-27", 0.534], ["2023-12-27", 0.496], ["2023-12-27", 0.527], ["2023-12-27", 0.549], ["2023-12-28", 0.549], ["2023-12-28", 0.578], ["2023-12-28", 0.557], ["2023-12-28", 0.567], ["2023-12-29", 0.652], ["2023-12-30", 0.6582], ["2023-12-31", 0.609], ["2023-12-31", 0.599], ["2023-12-31", 0.592], ["2023-12-31", 0.634], ["2024-01-01", 0.606], ["2024-01-01", 0.63], ["2024-01-01", 0.6], ["2024-01-04", 0.615], ["2024-01-04", 0.615], ["2024-01-04", 0.623], ["2024-01-07", 0.619], ["2024-01-09", 0.5827], ["2024-01-09", 0.6436], ["2024-01-12", 0.6436]] | ["https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/276134/IMCO%20meetings%201st%20semester%202024_v02.pdf", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3193 | <p>The Attorneys General of Louisiana and Missouri sued the federal government in 2022 claiming that different federal agencies were exerting unconstitutional influence over content moderation actions by various social media companies (<a href="https://www.komu.com/news/state/missouri-louisiana-ags-sue-biden-for-alleged-social-media-censorship/article_2766ce00-ccb1-11ec-83bd-2faaa5a5d782.html" target="_blank">KOMU</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/23-411" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). After a Louisiana district court imposed a broad injunction against several agencies preventing them from contacting social media companies, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals limited the reach of that injunction, and the Biden administration appealed to the Supreme Court (<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/4/23783822/free-speech-ruling-missouri-v-biden-dhs-fbi-cisa" target="_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/social-media-biden-administration-lawsuit-injunction-6322aae981bdc5c9009babde4b31ab60" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/murthy-v-missouri-2/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." A ruling that any particular action violated the First Amendment would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Murthy v. Missouri, will the Supreme Court rule that any of the federal government's actions regarding social media content moderation violated the First Amendment? | 2023-12-29 | [["2023-12-29", 0.85], ["2023-12-29", 0.43], ["2023-12-29", 0.5533], ["2023-12-29", 0.5533], ["2023-12-29", 0.4775], ["2023-12-30", 0.402], ["2023-12-30", 0.5017], ["2023-12-30", 0.53], ["2023-12-30", 0.5513], ["2023-12-30", 0.5538], ["2023-12-30", 0.5644], ["2023-12-31", 0.5756], ["2023-12-31", 0.602], ["2023-12-31", 0.6382], ["2023-12-31", 0.6108], ["2023-12-31", 0.6192], ["2023-12-31", 0.5792], ["2023-12-31", 0.5807], ["2024-01-01", 0.582], ["2024-01-01", 0.5907], ["2024-01-01", 0.5825], ["2024-01-01", 0.5894], ["2024-01-01", 0.5894], ["2024-01-01", 0.5929], ["2024-01-01", 0.6135], ["2024-01-02", 0.6635], ["2024-01-02", 0.6341], ["2024-01-02", 0.6394], ["2024-01-02", 0.6444], ["2024-01-03", 0.6344], ["2024-01-04", 0.6375], ["2024-01-04", 0.6342], ["2024-01-04", 0.6392], ["2024-01-04", 0.6438], ["2024-01-04", 0.65], ["2024-01-07", 0.6458], ["2024-01-07", 0.6125], ["2024-01-08", 0.6192], ["2024-01-11", 0.6133], ["2024-01-12", 0.6133]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3127 | <p>On 10 November 2023, Moody's Investor Service (Moody's) changed its ratings outlook to negative, citing higher interest rates and fiscal deficits (<a href="https://thehill.com/business/4304849-moodys-changes-outlook-on-us-to-negative-as-shutdown-looms/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/moodys-cuts-usa-outlook-to-negative-citing-higher-interest-rates-and-deficits.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Moody's, one of the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies that assigns ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts, was the only member of the Big Three to have a AAA rating for the US as of the launch of this question (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditrating.asp#toc-credit-ratings-scale" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rating" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Moody's downgrade its long-term credit rating for the United States before 18 May 2024? | 2023-11-17 | [["2023-11-17", 0.05], ["2023-11-17", 0.1], ["2023-11-17", 0.1], ["2023-11-18", 0.325], ["2023-11-18", 0.32], ["2023-11-18", 0.456], ["2023-11-18", 0.4133], ["2023-11-18", 0.3686], ["2023-11-18", 0.3413], ["2023-11-18", 0.3256], ["2023-11-18", 0.318], ["2023-11-18", 0.346], ["2023-11-18", 0.3455], ["2023-11-18", 0.3167], ["2023-11-19", 0.3269], ["2023-11-19", 0.3464], ["2023-11-19", 0.3329], ["2023-11-19", 0.3347], ["2023-11-19", 0.3706], ["2023-11-19", 0.3682], ["2023-11-19", 0.3672], ["2023-11-20", 0.3479], ["2023-11-20", 0.3463], ["2023-11-20", 0.334], ["2023-11-20", 0.3229], ["2023-11-20", 0.342], ["2023-11-21", 0.3352], ["2023-11-21", 0.3162], ["2023-11-21", 0.3352], ["2023-11-21", 0.3826], ["2023-11-21", 0.3674], ["2023-11-21", 0.3621], ["2023-11-22", 0.3727], ["2023-11-22", 0.3787], ["2023-11-22", 0.3681], ["2023-11-22", 0.3763], ["2023-11-22", 0.3725], ["2023-11-23", 0.396], ["2023-11-23", 0.3994], ["2023-11-23", 0.4431], ["2023-11-23", 0.4671], ["2023-11-23", 0.4894], ["2023-11-23", 0.4831], ["2023-11-23", 0.4547], ["2023-11-23", 0.4294], ["2023-11-23", 0.4483], ["2023-11-23", 0.4206], ["2023-11-24", 0.3982], ["2023-11-24", 0.3813], ["2023-11-25", 0.4038], ["2023-11-25", 0.4169], ["2023-11-25", 0.4365], ["2023-11-25", 0.4453], ["2023-11-25", 0.4371], ["2023-11-25", 0.4153], ["2023-11-27", 0.3941], ["2023-11-27", 0.3929], ["2023-11-27", 0.3812], ["2023-11-30", 0.3894], ["2023-12-04", 0.3888], ["2023-12-05", 0.3765], ["2023-12-07", 0.3824], ["2023-12-07", 0.4], ["2023-12-08", 0.3994], ["2023-12-10", 0.3994], ["2023-12-13", 0.3828], ["2023-12-13", 0.3439], ["2023-12-14", 0.3494], ["2023-12-17", 0.3483], ["2023-12-18", 0.3467], ["2023-12-21", 0.3326], ["2023-12-21", 0.3268], ["2023-12-21", 0.3268], ["2023-12-22", 0.3263], ["2023-12-25", 0.3379], ["2023-12-28", 0.3484], ["2023-12-31", 0.3474], ["2024-01-05", 0.3345], ["2024-01-06", 0.333], ["2024-01-06", 0.358], ["2024-01-08", 0.3985], ["2024-01-08", 0.398], ["2024-01-09", 0.373], ["2024-01-10", 0.369], ["2024-01-11", 0.3662], ["2024-01-11", 0.3424], ["2024-01-12", 0.341], ["2024-01-12", 0.341]] | ["https://tradingeconomics.com/austria/rating", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rating", "https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/rating", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators", "https://tradingeconomics.com/austria/indicators"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3052 | <p>The PRC has continued military activities around Taiwan throughout 2023 (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/29/taiwan-warns-of-surge-in-tensions-as-chinese-fighter-jets-cross-median-line" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-over-taiwan" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2024? | 2023-10-06 | [["2023-10-06", 0.06], ["2023-10-06", 0.1], ["2023-10-06", 0.4], ["2023-10-06", 0.3125], ["2023-10-06", 0.262], ["2023-10-06", 0.235], ["2023-10-06", 0.2443], ["2023-10-06", 0.3013], ["2023-10-06", 0.2733], ["2023-10-06", 0.263], ["2023-10-06", 0.2436], ["2023-10-06", 0.2242], ["2023-10-06", 0.2123], ["2023-10-07", 0.2046], ["2023-10-07", 0.19], ["2023-10-07", 0.18], ["2023-10-07", 0.1694], ["2023-10-07", 0.2153], ["2023-10-07", 0.2106], ["2023-10-07", 0.2167], ["2023-10-07", 0.2126], ["2023-10-07", 0.211], ["2023-10-08", 0.2033], ["2023-10-08", 0.1964], ["2023-10-08", 0.2165], ["2023-10-08", 0.21], ["2023-10-08", 0.2056], ["2023-10-08", 0.2016], ["2023-10-09", 0.195], ["2023-10-09", 0.1989], ["2023-10-09", 0.1936], ["2023-10-09", 0.2076], ["2023-10-10", 0.222], ["2023-10-10", 0.2114], ["2023-10-10", 0.207], ["2023-10-10", 0.212], ["2023-10-10", 0.2114], ["2023-10-10", 0.2323], ["2023-10-10", 0.2243], ["2023-10-10", 0.2055], ["2023-10-10", 0.1981], ["2023-10-10", 0.1895], ["2023-10-11", 0.19], ["2023-10-11", 0.1805], ["2023-10-11", 0.1724], ["2023-10-11", 0.1719], ["2023-10-11", 0.1461], ["2023-10-12", 0.1488], ["2023-10-12", 0.1412], ["2023-10-12", 0.1824], ["2023-10-12", 0.1824], ["2023-10-13", 0.1818], ["2023-10-14", 0.1818], ["2023-10-14", 0.1488], ["2023-10-16", 0.1444], ["2023-10-16", 0.1611], ["2023-10-17", 0.1683], ["2023-10-17", 0.1678], ["2023-10-18", 0.1694], ["2023-10-18", 0.1605], ["2023-10-19", 0.1516], ["2023-10-19", 0.1516], ["2023-10-20", 0.1558], ["2023-10-21", 0.1526], ["2023-10-21", 0.1553], ["2023-10-22", 0.1653], ["2023-10-22", 0.1595], ["2023-10-22", 0.1845], ["2023-10-23", 0.1865], ["2023-10-24", 0.191], ["2023-10-25", 0.191], ["2023-10-26", 0.191], ["2023-10-28", 0.191], ["2023-10-28", 0.199], ["2023-11-01", 0.1615], ["2023-11-02", 0.1881], ["2023-11-03", 0.1919], ["2023-11-03", 0.1929], ["2023-11-04", 0.1886], ["2023-11-05", 0.1886], ["2023-11-05", 0.1886], ["2023-11-05", 0.1977], ["2023-11-08", 0.1945], ["2023-11-08", 0.1945], ["2023-11-09", 0.1964], ["2023-11-10", 0.1836], ["2023-11-11", 0.1836], ["2023-11-11", 0.1832], ["2023-11-12", 0.1832], ["2023-11-12", 0.1705], ["2023-11-13", 0.1705], ["2023-11-13", 0.1732], ["2023-11-14", 0.1482], ["2023-11-15", 0.1691], ["2023-11-16", 0.1687], ["2023-11-17", 0.1687], ["2023-11-19", 0.1643], ["2023-11-19", 0.1639], ["2023-11-20", 0.1639], ["2023-11-22", 0.1771], ["2023-11-22", 0.1708], ["2023-11-23", 0.1708], ["2023-11-25", 0.1833], ["2023-11-25", 0.1833], ["2023-11-26", 0.1858], ["2023-11-26", 0.1824], ["2023-11-27", 0.1824], ["2023-11-27", 0.1765], ["2023-11-27", 0.1765], ["2023-11-27", 0.1765], ["2023-11-29", 0.1765], ["2023-11-30", 0.1765], ["2023-11-30", 0.1873], ["2023-12-03", 0.1865], ["2023-12-03", 0.1865], ["2023-12-03", 0.1481], ["2023-12-04", 0.1462], ["2023-12-05", 0.1473], ["2023-12-07", 0.1473], ["2023-12-07", 0.1469], ["2023-12-08", 0.1427], ["2023-12-10", 0.1427], ["2023-12-12", 0.1412], ["2023-12-12", 0.1412], ["2023-12-12", 0.1412], ["2023-12-13", 0.1412], ["2023-12-13", 0.173], ["2023-12-13", 0.1804], ["2023-12-14", 0.1804], ["2023-12-15", 0.1807], ["2023-12-15", 0.1807], ["2023-12-17", 0.1743], ["2023-12-19", 0.1743], ["2023-12-21", 0.1743], ["2023-12-22", 0.1757], ["2023-12-23", 0.1754], ["2023-12-25", 0.1754], ["2023-12-26", 0.1754], ["2023-12-26", 0.1718], ["2023-12-26", 0.1493], ["2023-12-27", 0.1448], ["2023-12-27", 0.1452], ["2023-12-28", 0.1452], ["2023-12-30", 0.1452], ["2023-12-31", 0.1414], ["2024-01-04", 0.1252], ["2024-01-06", 0.1262], ["2024-01-07", 0.132], ["2024-01-07", 0.1337], ["2024-01-07", 0.126], ["2024-01-08", 0.1277], ["2024-01-09", 0.1273], ["2024-01-09", 0.1273], ["2024-01-11", 0.129], ["2024-01-11", 0.1258], ["2024-01-11", 0.1258], ["2024-01-11", 0.1242], ["2024-01-11", 0.1203], ["2024-01-11", 0.1178], ["2024-01-12", 0.1147], ["2024-01-13", 0.1159], ["2024-01-13", 0.1159]] | ["https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/04/13/2003797852", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5008314", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5013242", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5013420", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLlCrw9TQZA", "https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/09/how-scary-is-china", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_warfare", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/23/taiwan-elections-kmt-invasion/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/taiwan-election-shapes-up-with-tsai-s-party-set-to-tap-candidate", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/top-us-general-doubts-xi-planning-to-take-taiwan-by-force", "https://www.yourtango.com/self/wolf-symbolism-spiritual-meaning-seeing-wolves", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Opinion_polling", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-sweeping-chinese-military-purge-140212270.html", "https://spectator.org/chinas-leading-ideologist-wang-huning/", "https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/the-prospects-for-a-recalibration-of-chinas-taiwan-policy/", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5027684", "https://www.aa.com.tr/", "https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China%27s%20Overseas%20United%20Front%20Work%20-%20Background%20and%20Implications%20for%20US_final_0.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/taiwan-doubts-china-s-xi-will-have-the-ability-to-invade-by-2027", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67949003.amp", "https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt#T%C3%BCrk_mitolojisinde_kurt", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5023560", "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/02/19/2003794646", "https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B015AR5O9E/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3040 | <p>ATMIS, an African Union mission in Somalia there to support the fight against Al-Shabaab and other groups, was intended to withdraw in 4 phases (<a href="https://atmis-au.org/3710-2/" target="_blank">UN Security Council Resolution 2687 (2023)</a>, <a href="https://atmis-au.org/the-transition-process/" target="_blank">ATMIS</a>, <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/update-on-the-situation-in-somalia-and-activities-of-atmis/" target="_blank">Amani Africa</a>). As of the launch of this question, the Phase 3 withdrawal is due to be completed by the end of June 2024 (<a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/S_RES_2628.pdf" target="_blank">UN Security Council Resolution 2628 (2022)</a>, see §28). This follows phase 2 whose deadline was extended to the end of 2023 (<a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/06/27/un-security-council-extends-authorization-for-african-union-mission-in-somalia/" target="_blank">Africa News</a>). An increase in permitted personnel after June 2024 or an extension in time at higher numbers would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Between 29 September 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the UN Security Council increase the number of troops authorized in Somalia after 30 June 2024 under the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)? | 2023-09-29 | [["2023-09-29", 0.0], ["2023-09-29", 0.25], ["2023-09-29", 0.17], ["2023-09-30", 0.1275], ["2023-10-01", 0.102], ["2023-10-01", 0.1517], ["2023-10-01", 0.1471], ["2023-10-01", 0.135], ["2023-10-01", 0.1311], ["2023-10-02", 0.135], ["2023-10-03", 0.165], ["2023-10-04", 0.135], ["2023-10-05", 0.149], ["2023-10-05", 0.176], ["2023-10-06", 0.235], ["2023-10-06", 0.239], ["2023-10-07", 0.209], ["2023-10-08", 0.227], ["2023-10-08", 0.24], ["2023-10-10", 0.231], ["2023-10-12", 0.221], ["2023-10-14", 0.218], ["2023-10-19", 0.218], ["2023-10-23", 0.214], ["2023-10-29", 0.213], ["2023-10-30", 0.218], ["2023-10-31", 0.216], ["2023-10-31", 0.214], ["2023-11-01", 0.197], ["2023-11-01", 0.217], ["2023-11-03", 0.213], ["2023-11-07", 0.198], ["2023-11-10", 0.197], ["2023-11-12", 0.196], ["2023-11-15", 0.203], ["2023-11-16", 0.213], ["2023-11-16", 0.217], ["2023-11-18", 0.207], ["2023-11-19", 0.208], ["2023-11-25", 0.206], ["2023-11-25", 0.218], ["2023-12-01", 0.216], ["2023-12-01", 0.206], ["2023-12-03", 0.205], ["2023-12-11", 0.202], ["2023-12-13", 0.262], ["2023-12-14", 0.252], ["2023-12-15", 0.285], ["2023-12-16", 0.295], ["2023-12-17", 0.295], ["2023-12-17", 0.301], ["2023-12-17", 0.305], ["2023-12-28", 0.305], ["2023-12-31", 0.311], ["2024-01-01", 0.361], ["2024-01-05", 0.371], ["2024-01-07", 0.369], ["2024-01-11", 0.366], ["2024-01-12", 0.358], ["2024-01-12", 0.358]] | ["https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/security-council-extends-authorization-african-union-transition-mission-somalia-unanimously-adopting-resolution-2710-2023", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/eu-pumps-89-5-million-to-somalia", "https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15457.doc.htm", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/au-supports-somalia-s-quest-for-technical-pause-of-atmis-withdrawal", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_peacekeeping_missions", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/african-union-pushes-for-support-to-somalia", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-asks-un-delay-peacekeeper-drawdown-after-significant-setbacks-2023-09-22/", "https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/member-states-need-to-scale-up-financial-support-for-atmis-and-somalia-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/al-shabaab-pushed-from-strategic-area-in-somalia", "https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15335.doc.htm", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/al-shabaab-bases-raided-in-somalia-and-kenya", "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2023/10/somalia-vote-on-a-draft-resolution-renewing-unsoms-mandate.php", "https://african.business/2023/11/apo-newsfeed/african-union-transition-mission-in-somalia-atmis-intensifies-joint-offensives-with-somali-security-forces-against-al-shabaab", "https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/too-early-for-foreign-troops-to-leave-somalia-updf-commander-4434084", "https://atmis-au.org/communique-of-the-1177th-meeting-of-the-psc-held-on-30-september-2023-on-the-request-by-the-federal-government-of-somalia-fgs-for-a-technical-pause-of-phase-2-drawdown-of-3000-african-union-tran/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3059 | <p>As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-cuts-could-come-as-soon-as-next-may-goldman-sachs-says-131518771.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/steve-forbes-says-the-feds-not-going-to-cut-rates-soon.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 13 June 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate? | 2023-10-10 | [["2023-10-11", 0.25], ["2023-10-11", 0.2433], ["2023-10-11", 0.352], ["2023-10-11", 0.3929], ["2023-10-11", 0.4667], ["2023-10-11", 0.4436], ["2023-10-11", 0.4669], ["2023-10-11", 0.4336], ["2023-10-11", 0.4321], ["2023-10-11", 0.4531], ["2023-10-11", 0.4417], ["2023-10-12", 0.4125], ["2023-10-12", 0.4068], ["2023-10-12", 0.4208], ["2023-10-12", 0.4481], ["2023-10-12", 0.4511], ["2023-10-12", 0.4514], ["2023-10-12", 0.4428], ["2023-10-12", 0.4287], ["2023-10-12", 0.4421], ["2023-10-13", 0.4427], ["2023-10-13", 0.4414], ["2023-10-13", 0.4522], ["2023-10-13", 0.4445], ["2023-10-14", 0.426], ["2023-10-14", 0.4248], ["2023-10-15", 0.4163], ["2023-10-15", 0.4256], ["2023-10-16", 0.4558], ["2023-10-16", 0.4095], ["2023-10-16", 0.422], ["2023-10-16", 0.4424], ["2023-10-16", 0.4409], ["2023-10-16", 0.4455], ["2023-10-16", 0.4404], ["2023-10-17", 0.4429], ["2023-10-17", 0.4471], ["2023-10-17", 0.4688], ["2023-10-17", 0.4865], ["2023-10-17", 0.4821], ["2023-10-17", 0.4964], ["2023-10-17", 0.5033], ["2023-10-17", 0.5113], ["2023-10-17", 0.5142], ["2023-10-18", 0.5231], ["2023-10-18", 0.5162], ["2023-10-18", 0.5097], ["2023-10-18", 0.4951], ["2023-10-18", 0.5049], ["2023-10-18", 0.501], ["2023-10-18", 0.491], ["2023-10-18", 0.471], ["2023-10-19", 0.4714], ["2023-10-19", 0.4712], ["2023-10-19", 0.472], ["2023-10-19", 0.4715], ["2023-10-19", 0.4665], ["2023-10-19", 0.4661], ["2023-10-19", 0.4742], ["2023-10-19", 0.4898], ["2023-10-19", 0.4925], ["2023-10-19", 0.4751], ["2023-10-19", 0.4676], ["2023-10-19", 0.4669], ["2023-10-19", 0.4724], ["2023-10-19", 0.4673], ["2023-10-20", 0.4696], ["2023-10-20", 0.4678], ["2023-10-20", 0.4645], ["2023-10-20", 0.4606], ["2023-10-20", 0.4596], ["2023-10-20", 0.4537], ["2023-10-20", 0.4537], ["2023-10-20", 0.443], ["2023-10-20", 0.4298], ["2023-10-20", 0.4263], ["2023-10-20", 0.4212], ["2023-10-20", 0.4244], ["2023-10-20", 0.4247], ["2023-10-20", 0.4208], ["2023-10-21", 0.405], ["2023-10-21", 0.4156], ["2023-10-21", 0.4137], ["2023-10-21", 0.4106], ["2023-10-22", 0.4209], ["2023-10-22", 0.434], ["2023-10-22", 0.4215], ["2023-10-23", 0.4236], ["2023-10-23", 0.4275], ["2023-10-23", 0.4431], ["2023-10-24", 0.4223], ["2023-10-24", 0.4196], ["2023-10-25", 0.4179], ["2023-10-25", 0.4304], ["2023-10-26", 0.4325], ["2023-10-26", 0.438], ["2023-10-27", 0.4312], ["2023-10-27", 0.4441], ["2023-10-27", 0.4422], ["2023-10-27", 0.4428], ["2023-10-28", 0.4406], ["2023-10-28", 0.4476], ["2023-10-28", 0.4447], ["2023-10-29", 0.4437], ["2023-10-29", 0.45], ["2023-10-29", 0.4573], ["2023-10-29", 0.4658], ["2023-10-29", 0.4685], ["2023-10-30", 0.4729], ["2023-10-30", 0.4815], ["2023-10-30", 0.4746], ["2023-10-30", 0.4737], ["2023-10-31", 0.4823], ["2023-10-31", 0.4813], ["2023-10-31", 0.491], ["2023-10-31", 0.4877], ["2023-11-01", 0.4866], ["2023-11-01", 0.4896], ["2023-11-01", 0.4831], ["2023-11-01", 0.473], ["2023-11-01", 0.4674], ["2023-11-02", 0.4746], ["2023-11-02", 0.4728], ["2023-11-02", 0.4709], ["2023-11-02", 0.4635], ["2023-11-02", 0.4683], ["2023-11-02", 0.4678], ["2023-11-02", 0.4585], ["2023-11-02", 0.46], ["2023-11-02", 0.4524], ["2023-11-03", 0.4584], ["2023-11-03", 0.4529], ["2023-11-03", 0.4416], ["2023-11-03", 0.4516], ["2023-11-03", 0.4649], ["2023-11-03", 0.4684], ["2023-11-04", 0.472], ["2023-11-04", 0.4673], ["2023-11-04", 0.4566], ["2023-11-05", 0.4616], ["2023-11-05", 0.4661], ["2023-11-05", 0.4667], ["2023-11-06", 0.4644], ["2023-11-07", 0.4702], ["2023-11-07", 0.4667], ["2023-11-07", 0.4671], ["2023-11-07", 0.4614], ["2023-11-07", 0.4783], ["2023-11-07", 0.4729], ["2023-11-08", 0.4709], ["2023-11-08", 0.4769], ["2023-11-09", 0.4845], ["2023-11-10", 0.4773], ["2023-11-10", 0.4759], ["2023-11-10", 0.4641], ["2023-11-10", 0.4564], ["2023-11-11", 0.4488], ["2023-11-11", 0.4463], ["2023-11-11", 0.4551], ["2023-11-12", 0.4708], ["2023-11-12", 0.4693], ["2023-11-13", 0.4657], ["2023-11-14", 0.465], ["2023-11-14", 0.4658], ["2023-11-14", 0.468], ["2023-11-14", 0.4718], ["2023-11-14", 0.4718], ["2023-11-14", 0.4793], ["2023-11-15", 0.4831], ["2023-11-15", 0.4872], ["2023-11-15", 0.493], ["2023-11-15", 0.4977], ["2023-11-15", 0.5026], ["2023-11-16", 0.5025], ["2023-11-16", 0.5093], ["2023-11-16", 0.5123], ["2023-11-16", 0.5133], ["2023-11-16", 0.5133], ["2023-11-16", 0.5149], ["2023-11-16", 0.5205], ["2023-11-17", 0.5187], ["2023-11-17", 0.5203], ["2023-11-17", 0.51], ["2023-11-17", 0.5142], ["2023-11-18", 0.5237], ["2023-11-19", 0.5282], ["2023-11-19", 0.5303], ["2023-11-19", 0.5317], ["2023-11-19", 0.5302], ["2023-11-20", 0.5395], ["2023-11-20", 0.5448], ["2023-11-20", 0.5477], ["2023-11-20", 0.5335], ["2023-11-21", 0.5543], ["2023-11-21", 0.5597], ["2023-11-21", 0.5642], ["2023-11-21", 0.567], ["2023-11-22", 0.5638], ["2023-11-22", 0.5706], ["2023-11-22", 0.5645], ["2023-11-24", 0.5657], ["2023-11-24", 0.5574], ["2023-11-24", 0.5596], ["2023-11-24", 0.5618], ["2023-11-25", 0.5555], ["2023-11-25", 0.5611], ["2023-11-26", 0.5653], ["2023-11-27", 0.5597], ["2023-11-27", 0.5446], ["2023-11-27", 0.5453], ["2023-11-27", 0.5463], ["2023-11-28", 0.5426], ["2023-11-28", 0.5419], ["2023-11-28", 0.5422], ["2023-11-29", 0.5408], ["2023-11-29", 0.544], ["2023-11-29", 0.5471], ["2023-11-30", 0.5415], ["2023-12-01", 0.5448], ["2023-12-01", 0.5419], ["2023-12-02", 0.5435], ["2023-12-04", 0.5451], ["2023-12-04", 0.5491], ["2023-12-04", 0.5507], ["2023-12-05", 0.554], ["2023-12-05", 0.5467], ["2023-12-06", 0.548], ["2023-12-06", 0.5472], ["2023-12-06", 0.5508], ["2023-12-06", 0.5495], ["2023-12-06", 0.5416], ["2023-12-07", 0.5395], ["2023-12-08", 0.5395], ["2023-12-09", 0.5395], ["2023-12-11", 0.545], ["2023-12-11", 0.5455], ["2023-12-12", 0.5476], ["2023-12-12", 0.5509], ["2023-12-12", 0.5526], ["2023-12-13", 0.548], ["2023-12-13", 0.5526], ["2023-12-13", 0.5579], ["2023-12-13", 0.566], ["2023-12-13", 0.5706], ["2023-12-14", 0.5787], ["2023-12-14", 0.5825], ["2023-12-14", 0.5856], ["2023-12-14", 0.5925], ["2023-12-14", 0.5949], ["2023-12-14", 0.5956], ["2023-12-14", 0.5926], ["2023-12-14", 0.5917], ["2023-12-15", 0.5943], ["2023-12-15", 0.5952], ["2023-12-15", 0.5949], ["2023-12-16", 0.5976], ["2023-12-16", 0.5979], ["2023-12-17", 0.6044], ["2023-12-17", 0.6127], ["2023-12-18", 0.6142], ["2023-12-18", 0.6162], ["2023-12-19", 0.6177], ["2023-12-19", 0.6195], ["2023-12-20", 0.6308], ["2023-12-20", 0.6325], ["2023-12-20", 0.6435], ["2023-12-21", 0.651], ["2023-12-21", 0.655], ["2023-12-22", 0.6559], ["2023-12-22", 0.6583], ["2023-12-22", 0.6548], ["2023-12-23", 0.6571], ["2023-12-25", 0.6599], ["2023-12-25", 0.668], ["2023-12-26", 0.6718], ["2023-12-26", 0.6738], ["2023-12-26", 0.6741], ["2023-12-26", 0.6707], ["2023-12-26", 0.6652], ["2023-12-27", 0.6575], ["2023-12-27", 0.6635], ["2023-12-27", 0.6643], ["2023-12-27", 0.666], ["2023-12-28", 0.6826], ["2023-12-28", 0.6756], ["2023-12-28", 0.6778], ["2023-12-31", 0.6746], ["2023-12-31", 0.6788], ["2024-01-01", 0.6814], ["2024-01-02", 0.6878], ["2024-01-02", 0.688], ["2024-01-02", 0.6874], ["2024-01-03", 0.6893], ["2024-01-03", 0.692], ["2024-01-05", 0.6963], ["2024-01-05", 0.6907], ["2024-01-05", 0.6918], ["2024-01-05", 0.6973], ["2024-01-07", 0.7003], ["2024-01-08", 0.7017], ["2024-01-08", 0.7024], ["2024-01-09", 0.7135], ["2024-01-09", 0.7143], ["2024-01-09", 0.713], ["2024-01-10", 0.7144], ["2024-01-10", 0.7147], ["2024-01-11", 0.7133], ["2024-01-11", 0.7133], ["2024-01-11", 0.7107], ["2024-01-11", 0.7083], ["2024-01-12", 0.7078], ["2024-01-12", 0.7086], ["2024-01-12", 0.7133], ["2024-01-12", 0.7161]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/feds-mary-daly-says-its-too-early-to-declare-victory-on-inflation.html", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-poised-hold-rates-steady-despite-economys-bullish-tone-2023-11-01/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/business/economy/fed-chair-powell-inflation.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/13/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/13/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20231213&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-b0fbe74e", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/jerome-powell-rate-hikes-imf/index.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htm", "https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/fed-rate-cuts-2024", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/ubs-sees-a-raft-of-fed-rate-cuts-next-year-on-the-back-of-a-us-recession.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/13/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20231213&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=214045818&segment_id=152513&user_id=cfd1702c23438d997b1a835d143d981b", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/11/18/heres-the-feds-2024-meeting-schedule-and--interest-rate-outlook/?sh=566cad52284c", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading-fed-rate-cuts/index.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/10/17/markets-see-measured-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024/?sh=1fba13f21741", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-poised-hold-rates-steady-despite-economys-bullish-tone-2023-11-01", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-rarely-cuts-rates-measured-pace-mcgeever-2023-12-14/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/inflation-report-to-show-fed-s-battle-is-now-all-but-complete?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-no-more-fed-rate-increases-cuts-start-may-2023-11-14/", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4046002-stock-market-news-today-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-fed-rate-decision", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-fading-chances-of-fed-rate-hike-bet-earlier-rate-cut-2023-11-03/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2023-11-10/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/11/18/heres-the-feds-2024-meeting-schedule-and--interest-rate-outlook/?sh=6acbac5d284c", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/fed-minutes-november-2023.html", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-divided-on-how-many-fed-rate-cuts-there-will-be-in-2024-d128fba6", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/13/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-12-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3062 |
<p>As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67077736" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/politics/us-allies-warn-hezbollah/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-11/israel-reports-cross-border-fire-from-lebanon-where-residents-say-israeli-shelling-under-way" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (<a href="https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-maps" target="_blank">UN Interim Force in Lebanon</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle" target="_blank">Britannica - Armoured Vehicle</a>). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-13 | Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023? | 2023-10-13 | [["2023-10-13", 0.63], ["2023-10-13", 0.4275], ["2023-10-13", 0.412], ["2023-10-13", 0.3617], ["2023-10-13", 0.2233], ["2023-10-13", 0.3671], ["2023-10-13", 0.4363], ["2023-10-13", 0.408], ["2023-10-13", 0.3717], ["2023-10-13", 0.3671], ["2023-10-13", 0.354], ["2023-10-13", 0.3406], ["2023-10-13", 0.3671], ["2023-10-13", 0.3494], ["2023-10-14", 0.38], ["2023-10-14", 0.3838], ["2023-10-14", 0.3941], ["2023-10-14", 0.3835], ["2023-10-14", 0.3717], ["2023-10-14", 0.3564], ["2023-10-14", 0.3462], ["2023-10-14", 0.34], ["2023-10-14", 0.3476], ["2023-10-14", 0.3577], ["2023-10-14", 0.3512], ["2023-10-15", 0.3474], ["2023-10-15", 0.3392], ["2023-10-15", 0.3546], ["2023-10-15", 0.3526], ["2023-10-15", 0.3564], ["2023-10-15", 0.353], ["2023-10-15", 0.3298], 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["2023-12-08", 0.0586], ["2023-12-08", 0.0575], ["2023-12-08", 0.0558], ["2023-12-08", 0.0537], ["2023-12-09", 0.0529], ["2023-12-09", 0.04], ["2023-12-09", 0.0383], ["2023-12-10", 0.0383], ["2023-12-10", 0.0363], ["2023-12-10", 0.0347], ["2023-12-11", 0.0347], ["2023-12-11", 0.0344], ["2023-12-11", 0.0342], ["2023-12-12", 0.0342], ["2023-12-12", 0.0341], ["2023-12-12", 0.0333], ["2023-12-12", 0.0318], ["2023-12-12", 0.0318], ["2023-12-13", 0.0317]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-fires-drones-israel-mounts-air-strikes-2023-12-10/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-works-curb-hefty-losses-israel-clashes-sources-say-2023-10-30/", "https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollahs-escalation-ladder#:~:text=An%20expanded%20campaign%20(tier%20two)%20could%20see%20Hezbollah%20firing%20three%20to%20five%20miles%20into%20Israeli%20territory%2C%20rather%20than%20one%20mile.%C2%A0", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/03/nasrallah-speech-hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-war-gaza-escalation-iran/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/national-security-adviser-indicates-war-against-hezbollah-likely-after-defeat-of-hamas/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-770854", "https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/28/israels-new-plan-to-encircle-hamas", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-24/ty-article/.premium/israel-planning-for-stage-2-of-the-war-against-hamas-even-before-the-hostages-are-home/0000018b-fd9a-d99b-a7eb-fd9e53d40000", "https://lasvegassun.com/news/2023/nov/03/lebanons-militant-hezbollah-leader-threatens-escal/", "https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/israel-warns-it-can-no-longer-accept-hezbollah-on-its-border-20231210-p5eqci", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/03/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#hezbollah-leader-address-israel-hamas-war-gaza", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/broken-lebanon-cannot-afford-war-hezbollah-knows-it-2023-10-26/", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-776212", "https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-could-open-second-front-lebanon-defense-minister-hintsgaza-hamas-war-yoav-gallant/", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/02/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israeli-calls-to-evacuate-parts-of-southern-gaza-could-be-a-precursor-to-an-invasion-there", "https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-media-flailing-to-interpret-12-sec-video-of-sayyed-n", "https://amwaj.media/article/axis-gaza-qaani", "https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/regional-commands/northern-command/what-is-the-blue-line/", "https://www.aljarida.com/article/43246", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hezbollah-chief-nasrallah-to-give-first-public-speech-since-start-of-the-war-friday/", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-772112", "https://academic.oup.com/book/32400/chapter-abstract/268692799?redirectedFrom=fulltext", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-771039", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-10/ty-article/.premium/washington-balks-at-israeli-armys-months-long-plan-to-complete-goals-in-gaza-fighting/0000018b-b539-dea2-a9bf-f5bf64530000", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-31/ty-article-live/idf-conducts-raid-in-gaza-rescues-woman-soldier-kidnapped-by-hamas-on-october-7/0000018b-83d7-d805-a98f-b7df34bc0000?liveBlogItemId=847931257#847931257"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3194 | <p>After the US Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal for it to rule on his claims of presidential immunity that were denied by the district court, the DC Circuit is scheduled to hear oral arguments on 9 January 2024 (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/12/court-wont-hear-trump-immunity-dispute-now/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-january-6-justice-department-special-counsel-3d2b0cbb7e2a3648f7587094e8191f40" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/01/1216696071/donald-trump-election-interference-immunity-claims-rejected-tanya-chutkan" target="_blank">NPR</a>). The DC Circuit is expected to hand down its decision in the coming months, but if it does not and the case is otherwise disposed (e.g., dismissal), the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit rules that Trump is immune from prosecution for some, but not all, of the criminal charges, the question will close "No." Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement, including a rehearing en banc, are immaterial (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/en_banc" target="_blank">Cornell</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Donald Trump's appeal before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), will the DC Circuit rule that President Trump is immune from prosecution for the criminal charges against him in the DC District Court? | 2024-01-04 | [["2024-01-05", 0.08], ["2024-01-05", 0.165], ["2024-01-05", 0.1933], ["2024-01-05", 0.1575], ["2024-01-05", 0.126], ["2024-01-05", 0.1217], ["2024-01-05", 0.1043], ["2024-01-05", 0.1038], ["2024-01-05", 0.1278], ["2024-01-06", 0.115], ["2024-01-06", 0.117], ["2024-01-06", 0.1155], ["2024-01-06", 0.1091], ["2024-01-06", 0.1], ["2024-01-06", 0.1308], ["2024-01-06", 0.1286], ["2024-01-06", 0.1253], ["2024-01-06", 0.1213], ["2024-01-06", 0.1376], ["2024-01-06", 0.1356], ["2024-01-06", 0.1811], ["2024-01-06", 0.1284], ["2024-01-06", 0.1232], ["2024-01-06", 0.1495], ["2024-01-06", 0.1345], ["2024-01-06", 0.127], ["2024-01-06", 0.1245], ["2024-01-06", 0.1233], ["2024-01-06", 0.1541], ["2024-01-06", 0.1496], ["2024-01-06", 0.1438], ["2024-01-06", 0.138], ["2024-01-06", 0.1404], ["2024-01-06", 0.1365], ["2024-01-06", 0.137], ["2024-01-07", 0.1571], ["2024-01-07", 0.1393], ["2024-01-07", 0.1345], ["2024-01-07", 0.1333], ["2024-01-07", 0.1337], ["2024-01-07", 0.1326], ["2024-01-07", 0.1294], ["2024-01-07", 0.1255], ["2024-01-07", 0.1221], ["2024-01-07", 0.12], ["2024-01-07", 0.1181], ["2024-01-07", 0.1181], ["2024-01-07", 0.1149], ["2024-01-07", 0.1132], ["2024-01-07", 0.1118], ["2024-01-08", 0.1153], ["2024-01-08", 0.1271], ["2024-01-08", 0.1149], ["2024-01-08", 0.1185], ["2024-01-08", 0.1188], ["2024-01-08", 0.1242], ["2024-01-08", 0.1214], ["2024-01-08", 0.1198], ["2024-01-08", 0.1224], ["2024-01-08", 0.1198], ["2024-01-08", 0.1257], ["2024-01-08", 0.1291], ["2024-01-08", 0.1332], ["2024-01-09", 0.1288], ["2024-01-09", 0.1348], ["2024-01-09", 0.1238], ["2024-01-09", 0.1238], ["2024-01-09", 0.1023], ["2024-01-09", 0.1023], ["2024-01-09", 0.0997], ["2024-01-10", 0.0915], ["2024-01-10", 0.0881], ["2024-01-10", 0.0865], ["2024-01-10", 0.0865], ["2024-01-10", 0.0865], ["2024-01-10", 0.0844], ["2024-01-10", 0.0873], ["2024-01-10", 0.0912], ["2024-01-11", 0.0987], ["2024-01-11", 0.1183], ["2024-01-11", 0.1096], ["2024-01-11", 0.1192], ["2024-01-11", 0.1192], ["2024-01-11", 0.1167], ["2024-01-11", 0.1067], ["2024-01-11", 0.1033], ["2024-01-11", 0.1304], ["2024-01-11", 0.1164], ["2024-01-12", 0.1164], ["2024-01-12", 0.1142], ["2024-01-12", 0.1135], ["2024-01-12", 0.1135], ["2024-01-12", 0.1246], ["2024-01-12", 0.1246], ["2024-01-12", 0.1269], ["2024-01-12", 0.1311], ["2024-01-12", 0.1226], ["2024-01-13", 0.1226]] | ["https://lite.cnn.com/2024/01/09/politics/takeaways-from-the-appeals-court-hearing-on-donald-trumps-immunity-claims/index.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/12/trump-2020-election-legal-00135230", "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/us/jan-6-trump-immunity.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/trump-immunity-hearing-2020-election/677072/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-will-attend-federal-appeals-court-arguments-presidential-immunity-2024-01-08/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/us/politics/trump-immunity-hearing.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3088 | <p>The border between Ukraine and Belarus has been relatively quiet in 2023, but fears remain that enemy forces may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus (<a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-military-presence-belarus-steady-121900386.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/en/russian-and-belarusian-special-services-plan-to-conduct-an-operation-under-a-foreign-flag-on-the-territory-of-belarus/" target="_blank">Government of Ukraine - Center for National Resistance</a>, <a href="https://eng.belta.by/president/view/belarus-to-work-out-procedure-for-using-tactical-nukes-in-face-of-aggression-159891-2023/" target="_blank">Belta</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 May 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-11-02 | [["2023-11-03", 0.21], ["2023-11-03", 0.115], ["2023-11-03", 0.11], ["2023-11-03", 0.095], ["2023-11-03", 0.084], ["2023-11-03", 0.07], ["2023-11-03", 0.0629], ["2023-11-03", 0.0563], ["2023-11-03", 0.0556], ["2023-11-03", 0.052], ["2023-11-03", 0.0473], ["2023-11-03", 0.1267], ["2023-11-03", 0.1246], ["2023-11-03", 0.1208], ["2023-11-03", 0.1129], ["2023-11-03", 0.1247], ["2023-11-03", 0.1175], ["2023-11-03", 0.1165], ["2023-11-04", 0.1128], ["2023-11-04", 0.1074], ["2023-11-04", 0.1025], ["2023-11-04", 0.0976], ["2023-11-04", 0.0932], ["2023-11-04", 0.0896], ["2023-11-04", 0.0863], ["2023-11-04", 0.0836], ["2023-11-04", 0.0923], ["2023-11-04", 0.0915], ["2023-11-04", 0.0926], ["2023-11-04", 0.0911], ["2023-11-05", 0.0879], ["2023-11-05", 0.0883], ["2023-11-05", 0.0867], ["2023-11-05", 0.0848], ["2023-11-05", 0.0825], ["2023-11-05", 0.0809], ["2023-11-05", 0.08], ["2023-11-05", 0.0834], ["2023-11-06", 0.0867], ["2023-11-06", 0.0876], ["2023-11-06", 0.0866], ["2023-11-06", 0.0882], ["2023-11-06", 0.0935], ["2023-11-06", 0.0912], ["2023-11-06", 0.0922], ["2023-11-06", 0.0922], ["2023-11-06", 0.0875], ["2023-11-06", 0.0855], ["2023-11-06", 0.0831], ["2023-11-07", 0.0889], ["2023-11-07", 0.0861], ["2023-11-07", 0.13], ["2023-11-07", 0.1358], ["2023-11-07", 0.1324], ["2023-11-07", 0.1342], ["2023-11-08", 0.14], ["2023-11-08", 0.1383], ["2023-11-09", 0.1524], ["2023-11-09", 0.1524], ["2023-11-10", 0.1476], ["2023-11-10", 0.1395], ["2023-11-10", 0.1355], ["2023-11-10", 0.1323], ["2023-11-11", 0.1495], ["2023-11-11", 0.1495], ["2023-11-11", 0.143], ["2023-11-12", 0.1322], ["2023-11-12", 0.1326], ["2023-11-12", 0.1326], ["2023-11-12", 0.1313], ["2023-11-13", 0.1313], ["2023-11-13", 0.1392], ["2023-11-15", 0.1163], ["2023-11-15", 0.1175], ["2023-11-18", 0.1179], ["2023-11-19", 0.1154], ["2023-11-19", 0.1163], ["2023-11-19", 0.1142], ["2023-11-20", 0.1142], ["2023-11-20", 0.1142], ["2023-11-20", 0.0829], ["2023-11-20", 0.0658], ["2023-11-22", 0.0658], ["2023-11-24", 0.0658], ["2023-11-25", 0.064], ["2023-11-25", 0.0624], ["2023-11-25", 0.0712], ["2023-11-25", 0.0708], ["2023-11-26", 0.0708], ["2023-11-26", 0.0708], ["2023-11-26", 0.072], ["2023-11-26", 0.0692], ["2023-11-26", 0.0731], ["2023-11-26", 0.0827], ["2023-11-26", 0.0827], ["2023-11-27", 0.0823], ["2023-11-27", 0.0808], ["2023-11-28", 0.0719], ["2023-11-28", 0.07], ["2023-11-30", 0.07], ["2023-12-01", 0.07], ["2023-12-02", 0.07], ["2023-12-02", 0.07], ["2023-12-03", 0.0696], ["2023-12-03", 0.0689], ["2023-12-03", 0.0689], ["2023-12-03", 0.0689], ["2023-12-04", 0.0726], ["2023-12-04", 0.07], ["2023-12-06", 0.0681], ["2023-12-06", 0.0681], ["2023-12-06", 0.0663], ["2023-12-07", 0.0659], ["2023-12-08", 0.0659], ["2023-12-09", 0.0671], ["2023-12-09", 0.0671], ["2023-12-11", 0.0668], ["2023-12-12", 0.0668], ["2023-12-12", 0.0668], ["2023-12-13", 0.0675], ["2023-12-13", 0.0693], ["2023-12-14", 0.0693], ["2023-12-15", 0.0829], ["2023-12-15", 0.0829], ["2023-12-16", 0.0825], ["2023-12-18", 0.0825], ["2023-12-18", 0.0821], ["2023-12-19", 0.0807], ["2023-12-19", 0.0807], ["2023-12-21", 0.0807], ["2023-12-22", 0.0793], ["2023-12-22", 0.079], ["2023-12-23", 0.079], ["2023-12-25", 0.079], ["2023-12-25", 0.0755], ["2023-12-26", 0.0755], ["2023-12-26", 0.079], ["2023-12-26", 0.103], ["2023-12-27", 0.103], ["2023-12-27", 0.103], ["2023-12-27", 0.102], ["2023-12-27", 0.102], ["2023-12-28", 0.1013], ["2023-12-28", 0.1003], ["2023-12-30", 0.1007], ["2024-01-01", 0.0984], ["2024-01-02", 0.0929], ["2024-01-02", 0.0929], ["2024-01-03", 0.09], ["2024-01-03", 0.09], ["2024-01-03", 0.09], ["2024-01-04", 0.09], ["2024-01-04", 0.0822], ["2024-01-05", 0.0822], ["2024-01-05", 0.0813], ["2024-01-06", 0.0813], ["2024-01-07", 0.0864], ["2024-01-07", 0.0864], ["2024-01-08", 0.0915], ["2024-01-09", 0.0912], ["2024-01-09", 0.0906], ["2024-01-09", 0.0906], ["2024-01-09", 0.0906], ["2024-01-10", 0.0906], ["2024-01-10", 0.0906], ["2024-01-10", 0.0906], ["2024-01-11", 0.0906], ["2024-01-12", 0.0906], ["2024-01-12", 0.0906]] | ["https://www.google.com/search?q=contries+next+to+Belerus&rlz=1CAPFDC_enUS1082&oq=contries+next+to+Belerus&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTExMzc3ajBqMagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories?s=33"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3189 | <p>SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/spacex-completes-static-fire-test-in-push-toward-third-starship-launch/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-flight-testing-photos" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).<br></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024? | 2023-12-29 | [["2023-12-29", 0.1], ["2023-12-29", 0.55], ["2023-12-29", 0.6667], ["2023-12-29", 0.645], ["2023-12-29", 0.636], ["2023-12-30", 0.5967], ["2023-12-30", 0.5829], ["2023-12-30", 0.51], ["2023-12-30", 0.5422], ["2023-12-30", 0.513], ["2023-12-30", 0.5573], ["2023-12-30", 0.5692], ["2023-12-30", 0.5908], ["2023-12-30", 0.5971], ["2023-12-31", 0.602], ["2023-12-31", 0.5956], ["2023-12-31", 0.6194], ["2023-12-31", 0.6239], ["2023-12-31", 0.6142], ["2023-12-31", 0.591], ["2023-12-31", 0.601], ["2023-12-31", 0.5736], ["2024-01-01", 0.5986], ["2024-01-01", 0.6052], ["2024-01-01", 0.6008], ["2024-01-01", 0.5808], ["2024-01-01", 0.5465], ["2024-01-01", 0.5238], ["2024-01-01", 0.516], ["2024-01-02", 0.5142], ["2024-01-02", 0.5176], ["2024-01-02", 0.5291], ["2024-01-02", 0.4964], ["2024-01-02", 0.4973], ["2024-01-02", 0.5143], ["2024-01-02", 0.5179], ["2024-01-02", 0.5027], ["2024-01-02", 0.4986], ["2024-01-02", 0.5052], ["2024-01-02", 0.4842], ["2024-01-02", 0.4648], ["2024-01-02", 0.4662], ["2024-01-03", 0.4396], ["2024-01-03", 0.4261], ["2024-01-03", 0.4208], ["2024-01-03", 0.4192], ["2024-01-04", 0.4273], ["2024-01-04", 0.4391], ["2024-01-06", 0.4724], ["2024-01-07", 0.4765], ["2024-01-08", 0.45], ["2024-01-09", 0.435], ["2024-01-09", 0.4306], ["2024-01-09", 0.4289], ["2024-01-09", 0.4511], ["2024-01-09", 0.4717], ["2024-01-09", 0.4711], ["2024-01-10", 0.4717], ["2024-01-11", 0.4744], ["2024-01-13", 0.4606], ["2024-01-13", 0.4606]] | ["https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230518-what-are-the-odds-of-a-successful-space-launch#:~:text=%22Typically%2C%20first%20or%20second%20launch,less%20than%205%25%20failure%20rate", "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-shares-progress-toward-early-artemis-moon-missions-with-crew/", "https://spacenews.com/spacex-targets-february-for-third-starship-test-flight/", "https://wccftech.com/spacex-shares-official-details-about-starship-rocket-test-before-flight-3/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3195 | <p>Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2023/03/30/russias-reporter-arrest-spurs-condemnations-00089678" target="_blank">Politico</a>). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/reporter-evan-gershkovichs-imprisonment-russia-body-blow-wall-street-journal-us-work-free-him" target="_blank">Fox News</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-american-journalist-gershkovich-wsj-jail-6bd08167fc282df96a5195707e1b1157" target="_blank">AP</a>). Gershkovich must leave Russia alive to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 6 July 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia? | 2024-01-04 | [["2024-01-05", 0.35], ["2024-01-05", 0.175], ["2024-01-05", 0.2167], ["2024-01-05", 0.2125], ["2024-01-05", 0.18], ["2024-01-05", 0.1833], ["2024-01-05", 0.3], ["2024-01-05", 0.2663], ["2024-01-06", 0.3033], ["2024-01-06", 0.373], ["2024-01-06", 0.3573], ["2024-01-06", 0.3758], ["2024-01-06", 0.3615], ["2024-01-06", 0.3464], ["2024-01-06", 0.344], ["2024-01-06", 0.3463], ["2024-01-06", 0.3506], ["2024-01-06", 0.3318], ["2024-01-06", 0.3272], ["2024-01-06", 0.3337], ["2024-01-07", 0.317], ["2024-01-07", 0.3071], ["2024-01-07", 0.3], ["2024-01-07", 0.2982], ["2024-01-07", 0.2896], ["2024-01-07", 0.2838], ["2024-01-08", 0.2724], ["2024-01-08", 0.2654], ["2024-01-08", 0.2712], ["2024-01-08", 0.3142], ["2024-01-08", 0.2733], ["2024-01-08", 0.2874], ["2024-01-09", 0.2627], ["2024-01-09", 0.1614], ["2024-01-10", 0.1293], ["2024-01-10", 0.1529], ["2024-01-10", 0.1664], ["2024-01-10", 0.1629], ["2024-01-11", 0.1593], ["2024-01-11", 0.1567], ["2024-01-11", 0.1733], ["2024-01-12", 0.1833], ["2024-01-12", 0.2167], ["2024-01-12", 0.2307], ["2024-01-12", 0.2167], ["2024-01-12", 0.2167]] | ["http://pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-may-consider-prisoner-swap-after-trial-of-detained-u-s-reporter", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-extends-pre-trial-detention-wsj-reporter-gershkovich-2023-11-28/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3018 | <p>After years of delays, Boeing is pushing for its first launch with a crew aboard in 2024 (<a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/08/starliner-update/" target="_blank">NASA Spaceflight</a>, <a href="https://starlinerupdates.com/" target="_blank">Boeing - Starliner Updates</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2024? | 2023-09-15 | [["2023-09-15", 1.0], ["2023-09-15", 0.8], ["2023-09-15", 0.7333], ["2023-09-15", 0.65], ["2023-09-15", 0.526], ["2023-09-16", 0.605], ["2023-09-17", 0.6614], ["2023-09-17", 0.6475], ["2023-09-17", 0.6488], ["2023-09-17", 0.65], ["2023-09-17", 0.6333], ["2023-09-17", 0.6356], ["2023-09-17", 0.661], ["2023-09-17", 0.6482], ["2023-09-18", 0.6392], ["2023-09-18", 0.6323], ["2023-09-18", 0.6323], ["2023-09-18", 0.6014], ["2023-09-18", 0.62], ["2023-09-19", 0.6308], ["2023-09-19", 0.5991], ["2023-09-19", 0.5955], ["2023-09-20", 0.54], ["2023-09-20", 0.5245], ["2023-09-20", 0.5255], ["2023-09-20", 0.58], ["2023-09-21", 0.531], ["2023-09-21", 0.534], ["2023-09-22", 0.52], ["2023-09-23", 0.58], ["2023-09-26", 0.56], ["2023-09-26", 0.543], ["2023-09-27", 0.54], ["2023-09-28", 0.539], ["2023-09-29", 0.57], ["2023-10-01", 0.5182], ["2023-10-04", 0.5091], ["2023-10-04", 0.5082], ["2023-10-04", 0.5064], ["2023-10-05", 0.5073], ["2023-10-06", 0.5191], ["2023-10-08", 0.5083], ["2023-10-08", 0.5025], ["2023-10-10", 0.5192], ["2023-10-14", 0.52], ["2023-10-19", 0.5183], ["2023-10-25", 0.5175], ["2023-10-31", 0.4817], ["2023-11-01", 0.4975], ["2023-11-01", 0.4967], ["2023-11-03", 0.4575], ["2023-11-03", 0.4592], ["2023-11-07", 0.4683], ["2023-11-08", 0.4675], ["2023-11-08", 0.4633], ["2023-11-08", 0.4592], ["2023-11-10", 0.46], ["2023-11-13", 0.455], ["2023-11-14", 0.4383], ["2023-11-14", 0.4492], ["2023-11-15", 0.45], ["2023-11-18", 0.5333], ["2023-11-20", 0.5442], ["2023-11-20", 0.5458], ["2023-11-20", 0.5467], ["2023-11-21", 0.5583], ["2023-11-22", 0.5642], ["2023-11-22", 0.565], ["2023-11-25", 0.5667], ["2023-11-27", 0.5733], ["2023-11-29", 0.5358], ["2023-11-30", 0.5342], ["2023-12-01", 0.5358], ["2023-12-03", 0.5392], ["2023-12-05", 0.54], ["2023-12-07", 0.5408], ["2023-12-11", 0.5492], ["2023-12-13", 0.5567], ["2023-12-13", 0.5908], ["2023-12-14", 0.5946], ["2023-12-14", 0.5954], ["2023-12-18", 0.5969], ["2023-12-23", 0.5977], ["2023-12-25", 0.5985], ["2023-12-27", 0.6008], ["2023-12-28", 0.6023], ["2024-01-01", 0.5723], ["2024-01-04", 0.5731], ["2024-01-04", 0.5738], ["2024-01-06", 0.5738], ["2024-01-11", 0.5762], ["2024-01-11", 0.5762], ["2024-01-12", 0.5762]] | ["https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/07/ula-delays-protecting-100-percent-success/", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/starliner-undergoing-three-independent-investigations-as-flight-slips-to-2024/", "https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/kennedy/progress-continues-toward-nasas-boeing-crew-flight-test-to-station/", "https://search.brave.com/news?q=Boeing%27s%20Starliner%20spacecraft%20to%20get%20to%20International%20Space%20Station%20for%201st%20time", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/10/02/boeing-starliner-capsule-commercial-crew/", "https://www.engineering.com/story/nasa-testing-dream-chaser-spaceplane-for-iss-shuttle-missions", "https://www.nasa.gov/feature/visiting-vehicle-launches-arrivals-and-departures/", "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/04/boeing-defense-ceo-were-in-progress-getting-astronauts-onboard-starliner.html", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/boeing-crew-flight-test/tag/atlas-v-rocket/", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/starliner-undergoing-three-independent-investigations-as-flight-slips-to-2024/%20%20The%20manager%20for%20the%20company's%20Commercial%20Crew%20Program,%20Mark%20Nappi,%20said%20the%20spacecraft%20should%20be%20ready%20for%20flight%20by%20early%20March,%20or%20seven%20months%20from%20now.%20However,%20Nappi%20said%20that%20date%20is%20conditional%20on%20availability%20of%20an%20Atlas%20V%20rocket,%20provided%20by%20United%20Launch%20Alliance,%20and%20an%20opening%20in%20NASA's%20visiting%20vehicles%20schedule.%20%20According%20to%20NASA's%20internal%20schedule,%20there%20is%20a%20docking%20port%20available%20from%20early%20April%20to%20late%20June%202024%20on%20the%20International%20Space%20Station.%20So%20barring%20a%20schedule%20change%20to%20delay%20a%20cargo%20mission,%20the%20likely%20no-earlier-than%20launch%20date%20for%20Starliner's%20crewed%20test%20flight%20is%20April%202024.%20%20Nappi%20said%20the%20parachute's%20manufacturer,%20Airborne,%20is%20fabricating%20a%20new%20version%20of%20the%20parachute%20joints%20using%20a%20stronger%20Kevlar%20material.%20Boeing%20plans%20to%20conduct%20a%20drop%20test%20of%20this%20new%20parachute%20in%20mid-%20to%20late-November,%20which%20would%20leave%20time%20for%20analysis%20ahead%20of%20a%20launch%20next%20spring.%20%20Stich,%20the%20NASA%20official,%20said%20the%20space%20agency%20was%20only%20requiring%20Boeing%20to%20complete%20a%20single%20additional%20test%20to%20verify%20the%20performance%20of%20its%20upgraded%20parachute%20%20In%20addition%20to%20the%20hardware%20work,%20Boeing%20must%20also%20comply%20with%20three%20separate%20investigations.%20According%20to%20Stich,%20there%20is%20an%20%22independent%20team%22%20at%20Boeing%20reviewing%20the%20company's%20actions.%20In%20addition,%20NASA's%20chief%20engineer,%20Joseph%20Pellicciotti,%20has%20interviewed%20every%20one%20of%20Starliner's%20subsystem%20managers%20to%20ensure%20there%20are%20no%20other%20potential%20surprises%20looming.%20Finally,%20Pellicciotti,%20his%20deputy,%20and%20the%20NASA%20Engineering%20&%20Safety%20Center%20have%20been%20conducting%20their%20own%20independent%20review%20of%20Starliner's%20soundness.%20%20All%20of%20these%20assessments%20must%20be%20completed%20before%20NASA%20convenes%20a%20flight-readiness%20review%20and%20determines%20that%20Starliner%20is%20finally%20ready%20to%20take%20flight%20with%20astronauts%20on%20board", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2023/10/12/nasa-updates-commercial-crew-planning-manifest/", "http://space%20%20starliner/", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/07/boeing-has-now-lost-1-1-billion-on-starliner-with-no-crew-flight-in-sight/", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-nasa-astronaut-launch-delayed-indefinitely", "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/11/starliner-asap-nac/", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/06/boeing-stands-down-from-starliner-launch-to-address-recently-found-problems/?itm_source=parsely-api"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2958 | <p>For the purposes of this question, "an act of cyberwar" is a cyber act (i.e., an unauthorized, malicious, and destructive act completed against a computer system through the use of a computer system) that compromises and disrupts a critical infrastructure system with destructive effects, and "state actor" means an organ of a nation state or a state-directed or state-sponsored individual or group (<a href="https://www.unodc.org/e4j/en/cybercrime/module-14/key-issues/cyberwarfare.html" target="_blank">United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime</a>). "US" means the executive branch of the federal government. "Critical infrastructure" is as defined in the United States Code at 18 USC 2339D(c)(3) (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/uscode.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=18-USC-616744004-609636146&term_occur=999&term_src=title:18:part:I:chapter:113B:section:2339D" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). Critical infrastructure does not necessarily have to be within the territory of the US to count, and both the act and accusation must occur during the question's open period to count. That an accused actor is a state actor must be stated in the accusation to count. Accusations of superficially disruptive attacks (e.g., DDoS attacks on public websites) would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/us/airport-websites-russia-hackers/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the US publicly accuse a state actor of committing an act of cyberwar against critical infrastructure of the US before 1 January 2025? | 2023-07-28 | [["2023-07-28", 1.0], ["2023-07-28", 0.925], ["2023-07-28", 0.6333], ["2023-07-28", 0.5], ["2023-07-29", 0.436], ["2023-07-29", 0.45], ["2023-07-29", 0.375], ["2023-07-29", 0.3214], ["2023-07-29", 0.365], ["2023-07-29", 0.34], ["2023-07-29", 0.3411], ["2023-07-30", 0.337], ["2023-07-30", 0.332], ["2023-07-30", 0.3018], ["2023-07-30", 0.3017], ["2023-07-30", 0.2823], ["2023-07-30", 0.2808], ["2023-07-30", 0.28], ["2023-07-30", 0.2636], ["2023-07-30", 0.246], ["2023-07-30", 0.254], ["2023-07-31", 0.25], ["2023-07-31", 0.2412], ["2023-07-31", 0.2694], ["2023-07-31", 0.2333], ["2023-08-01", 0.1847], ["2023-08-01", 0.1888], ["2023-08-01", 0.1818], ["2023-08-01", 0.1918], ["2023-08-01", 0.2494], ["2023-08-01", 0.2541], ["2023-08-01", 0.2456], ["2023-08-01", 0.2324], ["2023-08-02", 0.235], ["2023-08-02", 0.2873], ["2023-08-02", 0.254], ["2023-08-02", 0.314], ["2023-08-02", 0.31], ["2023-08-03", 0.3379], ["2023-08-05", 0.3975], ["2023-08-05", 0.3967], ["2023-08-06", 0.3992], ["2023-08-06", 0.3992], ["2023-08-06", 0.4], ["2023-08-06", 0.3925], ["2023-08-10", 0.3258], ["2023-08-11", 0.3315], ["2023-08-11", 0.3292], ["2023-08-11", 0.3523], ["2023-08-16", 0.3292], ["2023-08-19", 0.3764], ["2023-08-21", 0.3757], ["2023-08-30", 0.3721], ["2023-08-31", 0.3171], ["2023-08-31", 0.3171], ["2023-08-31", 0.3193], ["2023-09-01", 0.3164], ["2023-09-04", 0.345], ["2023-09-08", 0.3387], ["2023-09-10", 0.33], ["2023-09-11", 0.3387], ["2023-09-12", 0.3353], ["2023-09-13", 0.372], ["2023-09-15", 0.3733], ["2023-09-16", 0.3793], ["2023-09-18", 0.356], ["2023-09-23", 0.3547], ["2023-09-23", 0.3894], ["2023-09-28", 0.3888], ["2023-09-29", 0.3913], ["2023-09-29", 0.3931], ["2023-09-30", 0.3931], ["2023-09-30", 0.38], ["2023-10-01", 0.3669], ["2023-10-05", 0.3363], ["2023-10-12", 0.3425], ["2023-10-12", 0.3413], ["2023-10-12", 0.4], ["2023-10-14", 0.4063], ["2023-10-14", 0.4063], ["2023-10-21", 0.3844], ["2023-10-23", 0.3831], ["2023-10-24", 0.3825], ["2023-10-24", 0.3813], ["2023-10-24", 0.3813], ["2023-10-26", 0.3806], ["2023-10-27", 0.38], ["2023-10-28", 0.3788], ["2023-11-03", 0.3894], ["2023-11-08", 0.3888], ["2023-11-12", 0.4513], ["2023-11-13", 0.4563], ["2023-11-16", 0.4656], ["2023-11-16", 0.4656], ["2023-11-19", 0.47], ["2023-11-20", 0.4953], ["2023-11-20", 0.4953], ["2023-11-22", 0.4947], ["2023-11-22", 0.4965], ["2023-11-22", 0.4529], ["2023-11-24", 0.4559], ["2023-11-25", 0.4547], ["2023-11-26", 0.4782], ["2023-11-26", 0.4941], ["2023-12-01", 0.4941], ["2023-12-02", 0.4965], ["2023-12-02", 0.4765], ["2023-12-03", 0.4824], ["2023-12-06", 0.4572], ["2023-12-07", 0.4572], ["2023-12-08", 0.4628], ["2023-12-12", 0.4628], ["2023-12-13", 0.4911], ["2023-12-15", 0.45], ["2023-12-15", 0.4494], ["2023-12-18", 0.4483], ["2023-12-18", 0.4506], ["2023-12-26", 0.4795], ["2023-12-27", 0.4805], ["2023-12-27", 0.4805], ["2023-12-29", 0.4816], ["2023-12-30", 0.4816], ["2023-12-31", 0.4826], ["2024-01-01", 0.5221], ["2024-01-05", 0.5232], ["2024-01-08", 0.5232], ["2024-01-12", 0.5232]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/politics/china-malware-us-military-bases-taiwan.html", "https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/28/purposes-of-u.s.-government-public-cyber-attribution-pub-86696", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/municipal-water-authority-of-aliquippa-hacked-iranian-backed-cyber-group/", "https://www.wired.com/story/china-volt-typhoon-hack-us-critical-infrastructure/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A._ransomware_attack", "https://www.unodc.org/e4j/en/cybercrime/module-14/key-issues/cyberwarfare.html", "https://www.ibm.com/reports/data-breach?utm_content=SRCWW&p1=Search&p4=43700076336559871&p5=e&gclid=Cj0KCQjw84anBhCtARIsAISI-xdR0NeMTmwny1UL5yvWP9bCzupLD19d4evh3NZVqrQzFMqrSnOMFAoaAuEvEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds", "https://www.securityweek.com/chinese-apt-volt-typhoon-linked-to-unkillable-soho-router-botnet/", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-12/bureau-of-meteorology-bom-cyber-hacked-by-foreign-spies/7923770", "https://www.cisa.gov/topics/cyber-threats-and-advisories/advanced-persistent-threats-and-nation-state-actors", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/politics/china-malware-us-military-bases-taiwan.html#:~:text=The%20malware%2C%20one%20congressional%20official,communications%20to%20U.S.%20military%20bases", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack", "https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa23-335a", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/us/pennsylvania-water-cyberattack/index.html", "https://www.cisa.gov/topics/critical-infrastructure-security-and-resilience/critical-infrastructure-sectors", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/29/politics/china-surveillance-balloon-pentagon-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2023/item/2363-2023-annual-threat-assessment-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/29/politics/china-malware-taiwan-us-military/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3155 | <p>Recent headlines from Elon Musk and various companies suspending or quitting advertising on the social media platform has observers speculating about the financial future of the firm (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67599937" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/business/walmart-advertiser-ads-x-elon-musk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/29/a-brief-history-of-twitter-from-its-founding-in-2006-to-musk-takeover.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). A bankruptcy filing for the corporate successor in interest to X Corp. or its parent company (X Holdings Corp.) would count (<a href="https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/twitter-inc-x-corp-elon-musk-x-nevada.html" target="_blank">Slate</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will "X Corp.," formerly known as Twitter, file for bankruptcy in the US before 7 December 2024? | 2023-12-08 | [["2023-12-08", 0.01], ["2023-12-08", 0.505], ["2023-12-08", 0.4467], ["2023-12-08", 0.46], ["2023-12-08", 0.408], ["2023-12-08", 0.355], ["2023-12-08", 0.3057], ["2023-12-08", 0.2738], ["2023-12-08", 0.2522], ["2023-12-08", 0.266], ["2023-12-08", 0.2427], ["2023-12-08", 0.2233], ["2023-12-08", 0.2808], ["2023-12-09", 0.2893], ["2023-12-09", 0.2933], ["2023-12-09", 0.2867], ["2023-12-09", 0.2844], ["2023-12-09", 0.2813], ["2023-12-09", 0.2706], ["2023-12-09", 0.2722], ["2023-12-09", 0.3084], ["2023-12-09", 0.3055], ["2023-12-09", 0.3005], ["2023-12-09", 0.2868], ["2023-12-09", 0.283], ["2023-12-09", 0.2826], ["2023-12-09", 0.2822], ["2023-12-09", 0.2808], ["2023-12-09", 0.3016], ["2023-12-09", 0.2996], ["2023-12-09", 0.2959], ["2023-12-09", 0.2907], ["2023-12-10", 0.2821], ["2023-12-10", 0.2727], ["2023-12-10", 0.28], ["2023-12-10", 0.2759], ["2023-12-10", 0.2753], ["2023-12-10", 0.2882], ["2023-12-10", 0.2809], ["2023-12-10", 0.2757], ["2023-12-10", 0.2706], ["2023-12-10", 0.27], ["2023-12-10", 0.2792], ["2023-12-10", 0.2745], ["2023-12-10", 0.2931], ["2023-12-11", 0.302], ["2023-12-11", 0.302], ["2023-12-11", 0.2956], ["2023-12-11", 0.2933], ["2023-12-11", 0.2912], ["2023-12-11", 0.29], ["2023-12-11", 0.2947], ["2023-12-11", 0.2953], ["2023-12-11", 0.2898], ["2023-12-11", 0.2867], ["2023-12-11", 0.2862], ["2023-12-11", 0.2955], ["2023-12-11", 0.3048], ["2023-12-11", 0.3079], ["2023-12-11", 0.3138], ["2023-12-11", 0.3008], ["2023-12-11", 0.2945], ["2023-12-12", 0.3139], ["2023-12-12", 0.311], ["2023-12-12", 0.3049], ["2023-12-12", 0.3109], ["2023-12-12", 0.3106], ["2023-12-12", 0.3075], ["2023-12-13", 0.2953], ["2023-12-13", 0.3137], ["2023-12-13", 0.3148], ["2023-12-13", 0.307], ["2023-12-13", 0.304], ["2023-12-14", 0.2992], ["2023-12-14", 0.2972], ["2023-12-14", 0.3076], ["2023-12-14", 0.2988], ["2023-12-14", 0.3065], ["2023-12-15", 0.3127], ["2023-12-15", 0.3108], ["2023-12-16", 0.3108], ["2023-12-18", 0.3088], ["2023-12-18", 0.3265], ["2023-12-18", 0.3448], ["2023-12-19", 0.35], ["2023-12-20", 0.3526], ["2023-12-20", 0.3448], ["2023-12-20", 0.3474], ["2023-12-21", 0.3567], ["2023-12-21", 0.3511], ["2023-12-21", 0.3332], ["2023-12-21", 0.3321], ["2023-12-21", 0.3318], ["2023-12-21", 0.3425], ["2023-12-22", 0.3361], ["2023-12-22", 0.3539], ["2023-12-24", 0.3452], ["2023-12-25", 0.369], ["2023-12-25", 0.3766], ["2023-12-26", 0.3643], ["2023-12-26", 0.3727], ["2023-12-26", 0.366], ["2023-12-27", 0.3655], ["2023-12-27", 0.3639], ["2023-12-28", 0.3655], ["2023-12-29", 0.3661], ["2023-12-29", 0.3645], ["2023-12-30", 0.3656], ["2023-12-30", 0.365], ["2023-12-31", 0.3822], ["2023-12-31", 0.3959], ["2023-12-31", 0.38], ["2024-01-01", 0.3688], ["2024-01-01", 0.3491], ["2024-01-01", 0.3479], ["2024-01-02", 0.343], ["2024-01-02", 0.3624], ["2024-01-03", 0.3609], ["2024-01-04", 0.3594], ["2024-01-04", 0.3521], ["2024-01-05", 0.3462], ["2024-01-05", 0.3629], ["2024-01-05", 0.3626], ["2024-01-05", 0.3532], ["2024-01-05", 0.3524], ["2024-01-05", 0.3412], ["2024-01-06", 0.3309], ["2024-01-06", 0.3326], ["2024-01-06", 0.3274], ["2024-01-06", 0.3244], ["2024-01-06", 0.3147], ["2024-01-06", 0.3147], ["2024-01-08", 0.3106], ["2024-01-08", 0.3054], ["2024-01-08", 0.3017], ["2024-01-08", 0.2943], ["2024-01-08", 0.2917], ["2024-01-08", 0.2989], ["2024-01-08", 0.2989], ["2024-01-09", 0.2933], ["2024-01-09", 0.2931], ["2024-01-10", 0.2786], ["2024-01-10", 0.2789], ["2024-01-10", 0.2767], ["2024-01-10", 0.2517], ["2024-01-10", 0.2475], ["2024-01-11", 0.2478], ["2024-01-11", 0.2533], ["2024-01-11", 0.2533], ["2024-01-12", 0.2508], ["2024-01-12", 0.2508], ["2024-01-12", 0.2508]] | ["https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/01/the-rise-and-fall-of-myspace/69444/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/x-twitter-stock-falls-elon-musk", "https://www.showbiz411.com/2023/12/09/elon-musk-adds-another-nail-to-twitters-coffin-says-ok-to-restoring-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones", "https://fortune.com/2024/01/02/how-rich-top-10-billionaires-2023-wealth-increase-elon-musk-bernard-arnault/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/18/twitter-x-musk-social-media-europe/43585b3a-9da0-11ee-9e0f-972979a6c22b_story.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/jun/30/myspace-sold-35-million-news", "https://www.theblaze.com/news/twitter-day-in-life-video", "https://www.demandsage.com/twitter-statistics/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/x-s-value-drops-over-70-after-musk-s-acquisition-bankruptcy-risk-looms/ar-AA1mlnvh", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-court-denies-musks-request-070457377.html", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12307237/Threads-one-fifth-active-user-base-Twitter-India-Brazil-Truth-Social-Mastodon.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/twitter-said-to-make-second-interest-payment-on-musk-buyout-debt?embedded-checkout=true", "https://grok.x.ai/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/elon-musks-x-fidelity-valuation-cut", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-twitters-cash-flow-still-negative-ad-revenue-drops-2023-07-15/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-problems-twitter-x-tesla-gamble-luck-run-out-2023-12", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-visited_websites"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-12-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3125 |
<p>The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to be held from 30 November 2023 through 12 December 2023 in Dubai, UAE (<a href="https://unfccc.int/cop28" target="_blank">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, <a href="https://www.cop28.com/" target="_blank">COP28.com</a>). Advocates have been pushing for a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but no such commitment has been adopted (<a href="https://earth.org/what-can-we-expect-from-cop28-and-what-must-happen/" target="_blank">Earth.org</a>, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/cop27-loss-and-damage-fund-is-welcome-but-failure-to-deliver-on-phasing-out-fossil-fuels-is-a-huge-setback" target="_blank">Amnesty International</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/news/cop27-outcome-reflections-progress-made-opportunities-missed" target="_blank">UN.org</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2023 and the outcome determined once all decisions from the summit have been published. The specific date is immaterial, but it must be a fixed point in the future, whether it be a specific day, a month, or a year. A fixed term (e.g., within 50 years of this meeting) would also count. The agreement must be adopted by "consensus" to count (<a href="http://www.climalia.eu/dealing-consensus-un-climate-talks/" target="_blank">Climalia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-14 | Will COP28 result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date? | 2023-11-17 | [["2023-11-17", 0.2], ["2023-11-17", 0.2], ["2023-11-17", 0.14], ["2023-11-17", 0.1375], ["2023-11-17", 0.11], ["2023-11-18", 0.0933], ["2023-11-18", 0.0814], ["2023-11-18", 0.075], ["2023-11-18", 0.0667], ["2023-11-18", 0.063], ["2023-11-18", 0.0573], ["2023-11-18", 0.1358], ["2023-11-18", 0.1392], ["2023-11-18", 0.1329], ["2023-11-18", 0.1747], ["2023-11-18", 0.2027], ["2023-11-18", 0.1931], ["2023-11-18", 0.1931], ["2023-11-18", 0.1935], ["2023-11-18", 0.1828], ["2023-11-19", 0.1732], ["2023-11-19", 0.1795], ["2023-11-19", 0.1757], ["2023-11-19", 0.1809], ["2023-11-19", 0.2165], ["2023-11-19", 0.2088], ["2023-11-19", 0.2096], ["2023-11-19", 0.2012], ["2023-11-19", 0.1935], ["2023-11-19", 0.1912], ["2023-11-19", 0.1892], ["2023-11-20", 0.1933], ["2023-11-20", 0.1856], ["2023-11-20", 0.1918], ["2023-11-20", 0.2034], ["2023-11-20", 0.2034], ["2023-11-21", 0.2212], ["2023-11-21", 0.222], ["2023-11-21", 0.225], ["2023-11-21", 0.217], ["2023-11-21", 0.2527], ["2023-11-21", 0.2637], ["2023-11-21", 0.2546], ["2023-11-21", 0.2189], ["2023-11-21", 0.2414], ["2023-11-21", 0.2392], ["2023-11-22", 0.2574], ["2023-11-22", 0.2758], ["2023-11-22", 0.2832], ["2023-11-22", 0.2955], ["2023-11-22", 0.3245], ["2023-11-22", 0.3265], ["2023-11-22", 0.3265], ["2023-11-23", 0.3171], ["2023-11-23", 0.3141], ["2023-11-23", 0.3113], ["2023-11-23", 0.3161], ["2023-11-23", 0.31], ["2023-11-23", 0.3136], ["2023-11-23", 0.3495], ["2023-11-23", 0.3509], ["2023-11-23", 0.3291], ["2023-11-23", 0.3252], ["2023-11-24", 0.3248], ["2023-11-24", 0.3196], ["2023-11-24", 0.3495], ["2023-11-24", 0.3205], ["2023-11-25", 0.2943], ["2023-11-25", 0.299], ["2023-11-25", 0.2918], ["2023-11-25", 0.2695], ["2023-11-25", 0.27], ["2023-11-25", 0.2691], ["2023-11-25", 0.2664], ["2023-11-25", 0.2705], ["2023-11-25", 0.2978], ["2023-11-25", 0.2717], ["2023-11-26", 0.2426], ["2023-11-26", 0.2325], ["2023-11-26", 0.2313], ["2023-11-26", 0.1958], ["2023-11-26", 0.1892], ["2023-11-26", 0.1856], ["2023-11-27", 0.1856], ["2023-11-27", 0.1856], ["2023-11-27", 0.1836], ["2023-11-27", 0.1776], ["2023-11-27", 0.1756], ["2023-11-27", 0.1765], ["2023-11-27", 0.1658], ["2023-11-27", 0.16], ["2023-11-27", 0.1365], ["2023-11-28", 0.1346], ["2023-11-28", 0.1346], ["2023-11-28", 0.1315], ["2023-11-28", 0.1169], ["2023-11-29", 0.1154], ["2023-11-29", 0.1131], ["2023-11-29", 0.1123], ["2023-11-29", 0.1012], ["2023-11-29", 0.1012], ["2023-11-29", 0.1012], ["2023-11-29", 0.0978], ["2023-11-29", 0.0933], ["2023-11-29", 0.0926], ["2023-11-29", 0.0996], ["2023-11-29", 0.0996], ["2023-12-01", 0.0996], ["2023-12-01", 0.0954], ["2023-12-01", 0.0904], ["2023-12-01", 0.0896], ["2023-12-02", 0.0829], ["2023-12-02", 0.0821], ["2023-12-02", 0.0704], ["2023-12-02", 0.0689], ["2023-12-02", 0.0682], ["2023-12-03", 0.0679], ["2023-12-03", 0.0561], ["2023-12-03", 0.055], ["2023-12-03", 0.0589], ["2023-12-04", 0.0569], ["2023-12-04", 0.0576], ["2023-12-05", 0.0572], ["2023-12-05", 0.0566], ["2023-12-06", 0.0563], ["2023-12-06", 0.068], ["2023-12-06", 0.0633], ["2023-12-06", 0.0627], ["2023-12-06", 0.0671], ["2023-12-07", 0.0671], ["2023-12-07", 0.0648], ["2023-12-07", 0.0648], ["2023-12-07", 0.0648], ["2023-12-07", 0.0628], ["2023-12-07", 0.0625], ["2023-12-07", 0.0584], ["2023-12-08", 0.0553], ["2023-12-08", 0.0547], ["2023-12-08", 0.0544], ["2023-12-08", 0.0541], ["2023-12-08", 0.0538], ["2023-12-09", 0.0481], ["2023-12-09", 0.045], ["2023-12-09", 0.0403], ["2023-12-10", 0.0403], ["2023-12-10", 0.045], ["2023-12-10", 0.0447], ["2023-12-10", 0.0447], ["2023-12-11", 0.0441], ["2023-12-11", 0.0381], ["2023-12-11", 0.0378], ["2023-12-11", 0.0384], ["2023-12-11", 0.0338], ["2023-12-11", 0.0334], ["2023-12-12", 0.0322], ["2023-12-12", 0.0322]] | ["https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/22/uae-oil-company-executives-working-with-cop28-team-leak-reveals", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-67674841", "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/deal-to-keep-15c-hopes-alive-is-within-reach-says-cop28-president", "https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023", "https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/06/as-fossil-fuel-phase-out-gathers-steam-resistance-builds/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/world-divided-cop28-over-whether-end-fossil-fuel-era-2023-12-06/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/09/25/china-us-climate-talks-cop28", "https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_0.pdf", "https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/media/c19f22f2-d5db-4e64-b69a-55028012d592/Opec-Schreiben.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3035 | <p>Germany's ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is facing very low popularity as the far-right AfD rises in the polls (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/nearly-two-thirds-of-germans-want-new-government-poll-says/a-66578369" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/germany-politics-opinion-polls-afd-extremism-6ef03d74601e25027cca29f69b71e392" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/" target="_blank">Politico - Germany Poll of Polls</a>). Germany last held early elections in 2005 after President Köhler dissolved parliament at the request of then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/k%C3%B6hler-gives-go-ahead-for-early-elections/a-1655765" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/service/glossar/n/neuwahl.html" target="_blank">Bundeswahlleiterin</a> [in German]). The date the elections would take place is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will the President of Germany dissolve the Bundestag before 1 January 2025? | 2023-09-29 | [["2023-09-29", 0.0], ["2023-09-29", 0.01], ["2023-09-29", 0.0433], ["2023-09-29", 0.0425], ["2023-09-30", 0.044], ["2023-09-30", 0.0617], ["2023-09-30", 0.0529], ["2023-09-30", 0.0588], ["2023-09-30", 0.0578], ["2023-09-30", 0.056], ["2023-09-30", 0.0509], ["2023-09-30", 0.0475], ["2023-09-30", 0.0462], ["2023-10-01", 0.0464], ["2023-10-01", 0.0453], ["2023-10-01", 0.0506], ["2023-10-01", 0.0482], ["2023-10-01", 0.0456], ["2023-10-02", 0.0437], ["2023-10-02", 0.0455], ["2023-10-02", 0.044], ["2023-10-03", 0.03], ["2023-10-04", 0.037], ["2023-10-05", 0.039], ["2023-10-05", 0.034], ["2023-10-06", 0.032], ["2023-10-07", 0.031], ["2023-10-07", 0.028], ["2023-10-09", 0.052], ["2023-10-09", 0.056], ["2023-10-10", 0.06], ["2023-10-10", 0.06], ["2023-10-12", 0.07], ["2023-10-15", 0.07], ["2023-10-19", 0.06], ["2023-10-23", 0.06], ["2023-10-27", 0.055], ["2023-10-27", 0.055], ["2023-10-27", 0.06], ["2023-10-31", 0.06], ["2023-10-31", 0.0675], ["2023-11-01", 0.07], ["2023-11-01", 0.07], ["2023-11-02", 0.0975], ["2023-11-02", 0.0967], ["2023-11-02", 0.1], ["2023-11-02", 0.1115], ["2023-11-03", 0.1115], ["2023-11-03", 0.1215], ["2023-11-03", 0.1177], ["2023-11-04", 0.1062], ["2023-11-06", 0.1008], ["2023-11-11", 0.1023], ["2023-11-13", 0.0971], ["2023-11-14", 0.1114], ["2023-11-14", 0.1114], ["2023-11-14", 0.115], ["2023-11-19", 0.115], ["2023-11-20", 0.1129], ["2023-11-21", 0.12], ["2023-11-22", 0.1257], ["2023-11-22", 0.1279], ["2023-11-23", 0.135], ["2023-11-24", 0.135], ["2023-11-24", 0.1421], ["2023-11-25", 0.1586], ["2023-11-26", 0.1673], ["2023-11-26", 0.1653], ["2023-11-26", 0.1667], ["2023-11-27", 0.1767], ["2023-11-27", 0.1773], ["2023-12-01", 0.168], ["2023-12-02", 0.1573], ["2023-12-03", 0.1573], ["2023-12-07", 0.1593], ["2023-12-08", 0.1747], ["2023-12-08", 0.168], ["2023-12-11", 0.178], ["2023-12-12", 0.188], ["2023-12-13", 0.1763], ["2023-12-14", 0.1719], ["2023-12-15", 0.1719], ["2023-12-18", 0.1788], ["2023-12-19", 0.1788], ["2023-12-20", 0.1825], ["2023-12-22", 0.1856], ["2023-12-24", 0.19], ["2023-12-26", 0.2013], ["2023-12-26", 0.2619], ["2023-12-27", 0.2581], ["2023-12-27", 0.2581], ["2023-12-27", 0.265], ["2023-12-30", 0.2738], ["2023-12-30", 0.2944], ["2024-01-01", 0.3065], ["2024-01-01", 0.3082], ["2024-01-02", 0.3065], ["2024-01-03", 0.3065], ["2024-01-04", 0.2935], ["2024-01-05", 0.2912], ["2024-01-07", 0.2924], ["2024-01-07", 0.2841], ["2024-01-08", 0.2841], ["2024-01-08", 0.2711], ["2024-01-09", 0.2722], ["2024-01-11", 0.2722], ["2024-01-12", 0.2722]] | ["https://www.wahlrecht.de/", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/2023-12/ampel-regierung-haushaltskrise-was-jetzt-live", "https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundesregierung-fdp-politiker-stellen-ampelkoalition-infrage-a-b037e253-f5be-4cf1-945e-3acbf7ce5369", "https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/cdu-general-fordert-scholz-muss-die-vertrauensfrage-stellen-86362320.bildMobile.html", "https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/news-eu-gipfel-merz-bei-steinmeier-karl-lauterbach-eu-gipfel-ungarn-a-ae623ae8-c34e-4ad4-915e-f75313bc3784", "https://agendapublica.elpais.com/noticia/18690/germany-recession-what-are-causes-and-what-does-it-mean-for-european-union", "https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/fdp-bundesvorstand-leitet-basisvotum-ueber-aus-der-ampel-ein-a-14e492aa-0331-439c-b65e-055236fa6d6e", "https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/alle-prognosen-fuer-die-konjunktur-in-deutschland-2024-tabelle/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-11/fdp-mitgliederentscheid-ampelkoalition-5vor8", "https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/scholz-germany-must-pull-together-overcome-economic-crisis-2023-09-06/", "https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/06/PD23_N032_81.html", "https://www.dw.com/en/german-government-tightens-belt-in-new-budget/a-66724711", "https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/ampel-regierung-bild-nennt-50-gruende-neuwahlen-jetzt-weil-86436730.bildMobile.html", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-11/nachtragshaushalt-2021-bundesverfassungsgericht-urteil-faq", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructive_vote_of_no_confidence", "https://www.swp.de/panorama/neuwahlen-bundestag-2024-umfrage-aktuell-34251-72460641.html", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-11/deutschlandtrend-unzufriedenheit-ampel-regierung-neuwahlen"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2024-01-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3171 |
<p>Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/houthi-missile-strikes-merchant-ship-red-sea-us/story?id=105570184" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-13/us-warship-shoots-down-houthi-drone-launched-from-yemen-us-official" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67607862" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The GCC is an international body comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (<a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">GCC</a>). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-12 | Will a UN member state other than the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024? | 2023-12-15 | [["2023-12-15", 0.02], ["2023-12-15", 0.015], ["2023-12-15", 0.0933], ["2023-12-16", 0.0825], ["2023-12-16", 0.066], ["2023-12-16", 0.1717], ["2023-12-16", 0.1733], ["2023-12-16", 0.2914], ["2023-12-16", 0.255], ["2023-12-16", 0.3156], ["2023-12-16", 0.294], ["2023-12-16", 0.2745], ["2023-12-16", 0.255], ["2023-12-17", 0.2354], ["2023-12-17", 0.2369], ["2023-12-17", 0.2414], ["2023-12-18", 0.228], ["2023-12-18", 0.2347], ["2023-12-18", 0.2767], ["2023-12-19", 0.2991], ["2023-12-20", 0.289], ["2023-12-20", 0.335], ["2023-12-20", 0.287], ["2023-12-20", 0.305], ["2023-12-21", 0.331], ["2023-12-21", 0.351], ["2023-12-21", 0.401], ["2023-12-21", 0.475], ["2023-12-21", 0.504], ["2023-12-21", 0.454], ["2023-12-22", 0.4455], ["2023-12-22", 0.425], ["2023-12-22", 0.4417], ["2023-12-22", 0.4292], ["2023-12-22", 0.4223], ["2023-12-22", 0.4254], ["2023-12-22", 0.4269], ["2023-12-22", 0.4607], ["2023-12-23", 0.4138], ["2023-12-23", 0.4192], ["2023-12-24", 0.4336], ["2023-12-24", 0.4267], ["2023-12-25", 0.4933], ["2023-12-26", 0.51], ["2023-12-26", 0.4708], ["2023-12-26", 0.4192], ["2023-12-26", 0.4071], ["2023-12-26", 0.4036], ["2023-12-27", 0.3964], ["2023-12-27", 0.4007], ["2023-12-27", 0.3821], ["2023-12-27", 0.3814], ["2023-12-28", 0.3807], ["2023-12-28", 0.3573], ["2023-12-28", 0.344], ["2023-12-31", 0.3373], ["2023-12-31", 0.3627], ["2023-12-31", 0.3838], ["2023-12-31", 0.4106], ["2023-12-31", 0.4344], ["2024-01-01", 0.4375], ["2024-01-01", 0.3813], ["2024-01-01", 0.3963], ["2024-01-01", 0.3431], ["2024-01-02", 0.3288], ["2024-01-02", 0.3341], ["2024-01-02", 0.3512], ["2024-01-02", 0.3688], ["2024-01-04", 0.3747], ["2024-01-04", 0.3659], ["2024-01-04", 0.3761], ["2024-01-05", 0.39], ["2024-01-05", 0.3933], ["2024-01-05", 0.3983], ["2024-01-05", 0.4011], ["2024-01-06", 0.3817], ["2024-01-06", 0.3789], ["2024-01-07", 0.3739], ["2024-01-07", 0.37], ["2024-01-08", 0.3672], ["2024-01-08", 0.3516], ["2024-01-09", 0.3558], ["2024-01-09", 0.3474], ["2024-01-09", 0.3474], ["2024-01-10", 0.366], ["2024-01-10", 0.3465], ["2024-01-10", 0.3615], ["2024-01-10", 0.393], ["2024-01-10", 0.4305], ["2024-01-10", 0.438], ["2024-01-10", 0.443], ["2024-01-11", 0.4485], ["2024-01-11", 0.4835], ["2024-01-11", 0.4885], ["2024-01-11", 0.491], ["2024-01-11", 0.491], ["2024-01-11", 0.501], ["2024-01-11", 0.5152], ["2024-01-11", 0.52], ["2024-01-11", 0.5271], ["2024-01-11", 0.5286], ["2024-01-11", 0.5357], ["2024-01-11", 0.55], ["2024-01-11", 0.5652], ["2024-01-11", 0.5676], ["2024-01-11", 0.6105], ["2024-01-11", 0.6129], ["2024-01-11", 0.6305], ["2024-01-12", 0.6314], ["2024-01-12", 0.6727], ["2024-01-12", 0.6455], ["2024-01-12", 0.6909], ["2024-01-12", 0.6909]] | ["https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/houthi-rebels-boats-yemen-red-sea-attacks-85mxc6gzt", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranian-navy-seizes-oil-tanker-in-gulf-of-oman/ar-AA1mNBco?cvid=98f8d6f13db44c29b416162d65230314&ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&ei=7", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/maersk-says-will-resume-red-sea-shipping-as-us-led-coalition-counters-houthi-attacks/", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/podcasts/2023-12-19/ty-article-podcast/the-houthis-dont-care-about-the-palestinians-they-are-attacking-israel-to-gain-support/0000018c-81cf-db89-ad8f-f3ff8aeb0000", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uk-said-set-to-join-us-led-airstrike-campaign-against-houthis/", "https://www.ft.com/content/8e9eb52c-cf78-4052-8c28-2c2cef8f9372", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/11/uk-us-strikes-houthi-yemen-red-sea", "https://www.ft.com/content/689c4e66-fa37-49a6-9809-575c2d2ef44e#post-2ece5e11-66a7-40e2-9f6e-ddb3214f1547", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/yemen/dont-bomb-houthis?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Victory%20Is%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Only%20True%20Path%20to%20Peace&utm_content=20240111&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017", "https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1745560527437279355?t=37KbeiJf5TuPVazLAFVF2w&s=19"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2979 |
<p>On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of "reasonableness" (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/middleeast/israel-supreme-court-judicial-reform-law-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://israelpolicyforum.org/judicial-legislation-tracker/" target="_blank">Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker</a>, <a href="https://www.ajc.org/news/what-is-israels-reasonableness-legislation-and-why-is-it-so-contentious" target="_blank">American Jewish Committee</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/israels-supreme-court-reform-crisis/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href="https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf" target="_blank">Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary</a>). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (<a href="https://supreme.court.gov.il/sites/en/Pages/External.aspx/?&type=3&FD=-N12/09/2023&LD=-N12/09/2023" target="_blank">Supreme Court of Israel</a> [in Hebrew], <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-full-high-court-hear-petitions-judiciary-law-101869713" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the "reasonableness" standard? | 2023-08-17 | [["2023-08-18", 0.98], ["2023-08-18", 0.99], ["2023-08-18", 0.8767], ["2023-08-18", 0.8575], ["2023-08-18", 0.686], ["2023-08-18", 0.6283], ["2023-08-19", 0.5957], ["2023-08-19", 0.5929], ["2023-08-19", 0.5814], ["2023-08-19", 0.5713], ["2023-08-19", 0.5725], ["2023-08-19", 0.5738], ["2023-08-19", 0.5644], ["2023-08-19", 0.593], ["2023-08-19", 0.5391], ["2023-08-20", 0.5391], ["2023-08-20", 0.4755], ["2023-08-21", 0.47], ["2023-08-21", 0.4877], ["2023-08-21", 0.358], ["2023-08-23", 0.362], ["2023-08-24", 0.368], ["2023-08-24", 0.398], ["2023-08-24", 0.373], ["2023-08-24", 0.378], ["2023-08-24", 0.475], ["2023-08-26", 0.51], ["2023-09-01", 0.51], ["2023-09-02", 0.526], ["2023-09-06", 0.522], ["2023-09-06", 0.521], ["2023-09-07", 0.536], ["2023-09-07", 0.54], ["2023-09-08", 0.55], ["2023-09-08", 0.545], ["2023-09-09", 0.597], ["2023-09-09", 0.603], ["2023-09-09", 0.568], ["2023-09-09", 0.569], ["2023-09-10", 0.552], ["2023-09-10", 0.562], ["2023-09-10", 0.562], ["2023-09-11", 0.502], ["2023-09-12", 0.512], ["2023-09-12", 0.515], ["2023-09-12", 0.525], ["2023-09-14", 0.529], ["2023-09-15", 0.536], ["2023-09-16", 0.538], ["2023-09-16", 0.548], ["2023-09-17", 0.548], ["2023-09-18", 0.536], ["2023-09-18", 0.546], ["2023-09-19", 0.576], ["2023-09-19", 0.581], ["2023-09-19", 0.583], ["2023-09-19", 0.608], ["2023-09-20", 0.618], ["2023-09-20", 0.627], ["2023-09-20", 0.633], ["2023-09-28", 0.581], ["2023-09-28", 0.599], ["2023-09-30", 0.567], ["2023-10-01", 0.605], ["2023-10-01", 0.6], ["2023-10-02", 0.633], ["2023-10-02", 0.631], ["2023-10-03", 0.626], ["2023-10-04", 0.621], ["2023-10-04", 0.588], ["2023-10-05", 0.567], ["2023-10-05", 0.569], ["2023-10-08", 0.537], ["2023-10-08", 0.541], ["2023-10-08", 0.528], ["2023-10-08", 0.52], ["2023-10-09", 0.5], ["2023-10-09", 0.495], ["2023-10-09", 0.495], ["2023-10-10", 0.5], ["2023-10-10", 0.465], ["2023-10-10", 0.46], ["2023-10-11", 0.445], ["2023-10-11", 0.438], ["2023-10-12", 0.449], ["2023-10-12", 0.447], ["2023-10-12", 0.448], ["2023-10-13", 0.43], ["2023-10-13", 0.435], ["2023-10-13", 0.431], ["2023-10-13", 0.4491], ["2023-10-14", 0.4527], ["2023-10-17", 0.4636], ["2023-10-23", 0.4982], ["2023-10-24", 0.5058], ["2023-10-25", 0.51], ["2023-10-25", 0.5042], ["2023-10-25", 0.5042], ["2023-10-27", 0.51], ["2023-10-27", 0.5133], ["2023-10-31", 0.555], ["2023-11-01", 0.5542], ["2023-11-01", 0.575], ["2023-11-01", 0.5542], ["2023-11-01", 0.5592], ["2023-11-01", 0.5667], ["2023-11-02", 0.5742], ["2023-11-02", 0.6133], ["2023-11-03", 0.6208], ["2023-11-03", 0.625], ["2023-11-04", 0.6308], ["2023-11-04", 0.6392], ["2023-11-05", 0.6475], ["2023-11-05", 0.6517], ["2023-11-06", 0.6517], ["2023-11-07", 0.6492], ["2023-11-08", 0.6617], ["2023-11-09", 0.6667], ["2023-11-11", 0.6742], ["2023-11-11", 0.6758], ["2023-11-12", 0.6592], ["2023-11-15", 0.6854], ["2023-11-15", 0.6892], ["2023-11-17", 0.6762], ["2023-11-18", 0.6454], ["2023-11-20", 0.6492], ["2023-11-22", 0.6454], ["2023-11-24", 0.5915], ["2023-11-24", 0.5723], ["2023-11-25", 0.5708], ["2023-11-25", 0.5477], ["2023-11-25", 0.5246], ["2023-11-26", 0.5208], ["2023-11-26", 0.5185], ["2023-11-26", 0.5092], ["2023-11-27", 0.5054], ["2023-11-27", 0.5015], ["2023-11-28", 0.4862], ["2023-11-28", 0.4777], ["2023-11-29", 0.4971], ["2023-12-01", 0.4571], ["2023-12-02", 0.4786], ["2023-12-02", 0.4821], ["2023-12-03", 0.4571], ["2023-12-03", 0.4507], ["2023-12-04", 0.4436], ["2023-12-06", 0.4193], ["2023-12-06", 0.4221], ["2023-12-07", 0.4221], ["2023-12-07", 0.4079], ["2023-12-08", 0.4007], ["2023-12-08", 0.4329], ["2023-12-13", 0.4357], ["2023-12-17", 0.4271], ["2023-12-18", 0.4193], ["2023-12-18", 0.425], ["2023-12-21", 0.4214], ["2023-12-23", 0.4], ["2023-12-26", 0.398], ["2023-12-27", 0.368], ["2023-12-28", 0.3893], ["2023-12-28", 0.3927], ["2023-12-28", 0.3894], ["2023-12-29", 0.3831], ["2023-12-30", 0.3988], ["2023-12-30", 0.4388], ["2023-12-31", 0.4606], ["2023-12-31", 0.5106], ["2023-12-31", 0.5419], ["2023-12-31", 0.5481], ["2023-12-31", 0.5763], ["2023-12-31", 0.5825], ["2024-01-01", 0.5881], ["2024-01-01", 0.5881]] | ["https://www.swiftcentre.org/israeli-judicial-reform-and-protests/", "https://israeliconstitutionalism.wordpress.com/2019/06/26/%D7%94%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A0%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%97%D7%A7%D7%9F-%D7%99%D7%97%D7%99%D7%93%D7%AA%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%96%D7%9E%D7%A0%D7%94-%D7%9C%D7%93%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%99-%D7%9E/#_edn8", "http://www.deepl.com/Translator", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-761278", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/opinion/international-world/israel-supreme-court-protest.html", "https://www.russellhartley.com/hi", "https://www.mei.edu/publications/understanding-legal-drama-israel-will-supreme-court-prevent-constitutional-crisis", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/will-conservatives-finally-gain-control-of-supreme-court-651519", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/27/middleeast/israel-supreme-court-judicial-overhaul-netanyahu-mime-intl/index.html", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-779790", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/supreme-court-gets-more-conservative-with-appointment-of-two-new-justices-543418", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-supreme-court-set-historic-judicial-overhaul-session-2023-09-11/", "https://www.jns.org/israel-news/yariv-levin/23/8/16/311191/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-754601", "https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-judicial-overhaul-vote.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_restraint", "https://www.jns.org/israeli-high-court-prepares-to-strike-down-basic-law/", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-08-14/ty-article/.premium/israeli-doctors-call-on-supreme-court-to-strike-down-law-repealing-reasonableness-standard/00000189-f189-db6f-a1e9-f5bf274f0000", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-time-for-reason-will-the-high-court-strike-down-governments-reasonableness-law/amp/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3204 | <p>On 8 January 2024, an attorney for one of Donald Trump's codefendants filed a motion seeking to disqualify Willis and Wade and dismiss an indictment for, among other things, having an improper relationship (<a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4396297-georgia-defendant-trump-election-case-fani-willis/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/defendant-trumps-georgia-election-case-seeks-disqualify-da/story?id=106209092" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568/roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824.pdf" target="_blank">Motion to Disqualify and Dismiss</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-georgia-indictment-against-trump-and-18-allies" target="_blank">PBS</a>). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or dismissal are immaterial. A ruling or dismissal in either a state or federal court would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 20 April 2024, will a US court either 1) rule that District Attorney Fani Willis and/or special prosecutor Nathan Wade are disqualified from prosecuting any or all defendants in the Georgia criminal case against Donald Trump and/or any of his codefendants, or 2) dismiss any of those indictments due to purported impropriety by Willis and/or Wade? | 2024-01-10 | [["2024-01-10", 0.01], ["2024-01-10", 0.03], ["2024-01-10", 0.02], ["2024-01-10", 0.15], ["2024-01-10", 0.13], ["2024-01-10", 0.1583], ["2024-01-10", 0.1357], ["2024-01-10", 0.1275], ["2024-01-10", 0.1322], ["2024-01-10", 0.123], ["2024-01-10", 0.1164], ["2024-01-10", 0.1108], ["2024-01-10", 0.11], ["2024-01-10", 0.1021], ["2024-01-11", 0.0987], ["2024-01-11", 0.13], ["2024-01-11", 0.1419], ["2024-01-11", 0.1482], ["2024-01-11", 0.1394], ["2024-01-11", 0.1317], ["2024-01-11", 0.1505], ["2024-01-11", 0.148], ["2024-01-11", 0.149], ["2024-01-11", 0.1445], ["2024-01-11", 0.1391], ["2024-01-11", 0.1396], ["2024-01-11", 0.134], ["2024-01-11", 0.1296], ["2024-01-12", 0.1322], ["2024-01-12", 0.1436], ["2024-01-12", 0.1507], ["2024-01-12", 0.1403], ["2024-01-12", 0.139], ["2024-01-12", 0.1426], ["2024-01-12", 0.1409], ["2024-01-12", 0.1409]] | ["https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4396297-georgia-defendant-trump-election-case-fani-willis/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3105 | <p>Created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the MRT requires that taxes be paid on certain corporate earnings and profits from controlled foreign corporations (i.e., foreign corporations that are majority owned by US persons) (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/moore-v-united-states-2125" target="_blank">Casetext - Moore v US 9th Circuit</a>, <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/moore-v-united-states-tax-unrealized-income/" target="_blank">Tax Foundation</a>). The Moores, investors in an Indian company, challenged the MRT as unconstitutional because it was, among other things, beyond the scope of income taxes permitted by the 16th Amendment to the US Constitution (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/22-800" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The outcome of the case may touch on the constitutional viability of a federal "wealth tax" in the US (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/couple-powerful-supreme-court-ruling-affect-wealth-tax-103990652" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/us-wealth-tax-could-gain-footing-with-supreme-court-moore-ruling" target="_blank">Bloomberg Tax</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | In Moore v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that the Mandatory Repatriation Tax (MRT) is unconstitutional as to the Moores? | 2023-11-09 | [["2023-11-10", 0.55], ["2023-11-10", 0.525], ["2023-11-10", 0.3533], ["2023-11-10", 0.395], ["2023-11-11", 0.476], ["2023-11-11", 0.5017], ["2023-11-11", 0.505], ["2023-11-12", 0.4883], ["2023-11-12", 0.4917], ["2023-11-12", 0.4571], ["2023-11-12", 0.4638], ["2023-11-12", 0.5233], ["2023-11-13", 0.472], ["2023-11-13", 0.453], ["2023-11-13", 0.449], ["2023-11-13", 0.4627], ["2023-11-14", 0.453], ["2023-11-16", 0.39], ["2023-11-19", 0.384], ["2023-11-20", 0.429], ["2023-11-20", 0.411], ["2023-11-20", 0.381], ["2023-11-25", 0.373], ["2023-11-27", 0.411], ["2023-11-27", 0.411], ["2023-12-05", 0.385], ["2023-12-06", 0.34], ["2023-12-06", 0.335], ["2023-12-06", 0.305], ["2023-12-06", 0.356], ["2023-12-07", 0.356], ["2023-12-07", 0.362], ["2023-12-08", 0.422], ["2023-12-08", 0.423], ["2023-12-09", 0.433], ["2023-12-11", 0.433], ["2023-12-13", 0.403], ["2023-12-14", 0.403], ["2023-12-17", 0.406], ["2023-12-21", 0.406], ["2023-12-22", 0.381], ["2023-12-22", 0.396], ["2023-12-23", 0.396], ["2023-12-24", 0.441], ["2024-01-03", 0.417], ["2024-01-03", 0.417], ["2024-01-05", 0.413], ["2024-01-09", 0.413], ["2024-01-09", 0.403], ["2024-01-12", 0.397], ["2024-01-12", 0.397]] | ["https://www.americanbar.org/groups/taxation/publications/abataxtimes_home/23sum/23sum-ac-rule-mandatory-repatriation/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-10-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3015 |
<p>Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-09-07/analysis-default-dodged-but-country-gardens-upcoming-debt-payments-stir-worries" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/economy/china-country-garden-bond-payment-extension-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/explainer-country-garden-bad-chinas-073859491.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>). The use of "grace periods" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grace_period.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Grace Period</a>). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country Garden Real Estate) would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-10-25 | Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024? | 2023-09-15 | [["2023-09-15", 0.0], ["2023-09-15", 0.4], ["2023-09-15", 0.4467], ["2023-09-16", 0.3525], ["2023-09-16", 0.382], ["2023-09-16", 0.41], ["2023-09-16", 0.3514], ["2023-09-16", 0.3325], ["2023-09-16", 0.3733], ["2023-09-16", 0.336], ["2023-09-17", 0.3664], ["2023-09-17", 0.3655], ["2023-09-17", 0.3425], ["2023-09-17", 0.3375], ["2023-09-17", 0.3358], ["2023-09-17", 0.31], ["2023-09-17", 0.3057], ["2023-09-17", 0.292], ["2023-09-17", 0.2894], ["2023-09-17", 0.2812], ["2023-09-17", 0.2856], ["2023-09-17", 0.3137], ["2023-09-17", 0.2995], ["2023-09-18", 0.281], ["2023-09-18", 0.331], ["2023-09-18", 0.3629], ["2023-09-18", 0.3855], ["2023-09-18", 0.3781], ["2023-09-19", 0.4176], ["2023-09-19", 0.4245], ["2023-09-19", 0.4424], ["2023-09-19", 0.4176], ["2023-09-19", 0.4271], ["2023-09-19", 0.4742], ["2023-09-19", 0.475], ["2023-09-19", 0.478], ["2023-09-19", 0.4838], ["2023-09-19", 0.4886], ["2023-09-19", 0.4945], ["2023-09-19", 0.4845], ["2023-09-19", 0.5105], ["2023-09-20", 0.511], ["2023-09-20", 0.546], ["2023-09-20", 0.5558], ["2023-09-20", 0.5611], ["2023-09-20", 0.5689], ["2023-09-20", 0.578], ["2023-09-21", 0.6228], ["2023-09-21", 0.6253], ["2023-09-21", 0.6321], ["2023-09-22", 0.574], ["2023-09-22", 0.558], ["2023-09-22", 0.5587], ["2023-09-22", 0.5553], ["2023-09-22", 0.562], ["2023-09-22", 0.564], ["2023-09-22", 0.59], ["2023-09-22", 0.5933], ["2023-09-23", 0.6073], ["2023-09-23", 0.6067], ["2023-09-23", 0.6156], ["2023-09-23", 0.6094], ["2023-09-24", 0.58], ["2023-09-24", 0.5913], ["2023-09-24", 0.6063], ["2023-09-25", 0.6176], ["2023-09-25", 0.6224], ["2023-09-25", 0.6247], ["2023-09-25", 0.6224], ["2023-09-26", 0.6182], ["2023-09-26", 0.6112], ["2023-09-26", 0.6159], ["2023-09-26", 0.6076], ["2023-09-27", 0.6065], ["2023-09-27", 0.6059], ["2023-09-27", 0.6071], ["2023-09-27", 0.6059], ["2023-09-27", 0.6047], ["2023-09-28", 0.5929], ["2023-09-28", 0.59], ["2023-09-29", 0.5841], ["2023-09-30", 0.5929], ["2023-10-01", 0.5965], ["2023-10-01", 0.6082], ["2023-10-01", 0.5724], ["2023-10-02", 0.5794], ["2023-10-02", 0.5783], ["2023-10-02", 0.5789], ["2023-10-02", 0.5761], ["2023-10-02", 0.575], ["2023-10-02", 0.5739], ["2023-10-03", 0.5733], ["2023-10-04", 0.5711], ["2023-10-05", 0.5556], ["2023-10-08", 0.5556], ["2023-10-08", 0.5556], ["2023-10-09", 0.5506], ["2023-10-09", 0.5394], ["2023-10-10", 0.545], ["2023-10-10", 0.5517], ["2023-10-10", 0.5656], ["2023-10-10", 0.565], ["2023-10-10", 0.59], ["2023-10-10", 0.6128], ["2023-10-10", 0.6117], ["2023-10-10", 0.62], ["2023-10-10", 0.6339], ["2023-10-10", 0.6394], ["2023-10-10", 0.6506], ["2023-10-10", 0.685], ["2023-10-11", 0.685], ["2023-10-11", 0.6878], ["2023-10-12", 0.6989], ["2023-10-12", 0.7], ["2023-10-12", 0.6994], ["2023-10-12", 0.6978], ["2023-10-14", 0.6956], ["2023-10-14", 0.695], ["2023-10-15", 0.7022], ["2023-10-16", 0.7022], ["2023-10-17", 0.7172], ["2023-10-17", 0.7606], ["2023-10-17", 0.7644], ["2023-10-17", 0.7839], ["2023-10-17", 0.7867], ["2023-10-17", 0.7878], ["2023-10-17", 0.8067], ["2023-10-18", 0.8106], ["2023-10-18", 0.8144], ["2023-10-18", 0.82], ["2023-10-18", 0.8206], ["2023-10-18", 0.8206]] | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqA5NODRnQI", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-25/country-garden-heiress-has-fortune-cut-in-half/102758274", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/country-garden-signals-default-hires-011116350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMs350-vzRbCuZBNQheiYw3cntUvqxj_1vT0aUpSjz-yef36qpX03GM5Iee7pbuzwXLxphwnzPsPj2m2fb0GVfcZ4MqeTtLW215NnuRNPchgAzQ5Hy5Z2H4R24T_hgH94WMf6S7h4AgXm0vYD_b9lpadDGh6Wtb1aGs0NMFBavMh", "https://archive.ph/0ipdy", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/economy/country-garden-debt-restructuring-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-country-garden-offshore-debt-default-looms-2023-10-18/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/9/18/chinas-country-garden-faces-payment-deadline-after-twice-dodging-default", "https://archive.ph/2A2Lg#selection-5679.0-5679.165", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/business/country-garden-default-china-real-estate-crisis.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-developer-country-garden-faces-fresh-offshore-payments-deadline-2023-10-09/", "https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?mod=hp_lead_pos1", "https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/evergrande-s-plan-to-stave-off-collapse-is-running-into-trouble/ar-AA1hdywH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e6944ef0463848059f84ce27683b9566&ei=12", "https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?st=lb0znzqvtpx3qjp&reflink=article_copyURL_share", "https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sunac-country-garden-debt-deals-bring-respite-chinas-property-sector-2023-09-19/", "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-09-21-2023/card/country-garden-buys-more-time-with-more-bond-extensions-eB63qRkUlJXuidRIrAQq", "https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/10/chinese-property-development-giant-country-garden-is-on-the-verge-of-default", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/country-garden-default-dollar-bond-declared-first-time-bloomberg-news-2023-10-25/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/country-garden-says-it-may-not-be-able-to-repay-debt.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/country-garden-hires-advisers-for-holistic-solution", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/country-garden-bond-coupon-payment-offshore-debt-potential-default-china-property-developer-3850986", "https://www.reuters.com/business/country-gardens-entire-offshore-debt-be-default-if-tuesday-payment-not-made-2023-10-16/", "https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese-builder-country-garden-is-approved-to-roll-over-nine-onshore-bonds", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3063 |
<p>As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/15/map-which-mena-countries-have-diplomatic-ties-with-israel" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-arab-allies-navigate-israel-ties-pro-palestinian-public-opinion-as-war-erupts/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-israel-saudi-arabia-normalization-hamas-246213034afa75e4dff27e71362a1979" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/how-did-arab-states-react-hamas-attack-israel" target="_blank">New Arab</a>). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826" target="_blank">AP</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-10 | Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024? | 2023-10-13 | [["2023-10-13", 0.15], ["2023-10-13", 0.25], ["2023-10-13", 0.3], ["2023-10-13", 0.3175], ["2023-10-13", 0.278], ["2023-10-13", 0.2317], ["2023-10-13", 0.2071], ["2023-10-13", 0.1938], ["2023-10-13", 0.2389], ["2023-10-13", 0.2378], ["2023-10-13", 0.2322], ["2023-10-13", 0.259], ["2023-10-13", 0.249], ["2023-10-13", 0.2264], ["2023-10-13", 0.2242], ["2023-10-14", 0.2477], ["2023-10-14", 0.23], ["2023-10-14", 0.228], ["2023-10-14", 0.2144], ["2023-10-14", 0.24], ["2023-10-14", 0.2322], ["2023-10-14", 0.2322], ["2023-10-14", 0.22], ["2023-10-14", 0.2211], ["2023-10-14", 0.2205], ["2023-10-14", 0.2195], ["2023-10-14", 0.2095], ["2023-10-14", 0.2018], ["2023-10-14", 0.2039], ["2023-10-14", 0.1996], ["2023-10-15", 0.1936], ["2023-10-15", 0.1938], ["2023-10-15", 0.1941], ["2023-10-15", 0.1882], ["2023-10-15", 0.199], ["2023-10-15", 0.1948], ["2023-10-16", 0.1948], ["2023-10-16", 0.19], ["2023-10-16", 0.1917], ["2023-10-16", 0.1897], ["2023-10-16", 0.1852], ["2023-10-16", 0.1852], ["2023-10-16", 0.1838], ["2023-10-16", 0.1933], ["2023-10-17", 0.2104], ["2023-10-17", 0.2229], ["2023-10-17", 0.2225], ["2023-10-17", 0.2196], ["2023-10-17", 0.216], ["2023-10-17", 0.2225], ["2023-10-17", 0.2196], ["2023-10-17", 0.2361], ["2023-10-17", 0.2441], ["2023-10-18", 0.2576], ["2023-10-18", 0.2613], ["2023-10-18", 0.2512], ["2023-10-19", 0.2529], ["2023-10-19", 0.2676], ["2023-10-20", 0.2782], ["2023-10-21", 0.2759], ["2023-10-22", 0.2629], ["2023-10-22", 0.2841], ["2023-10-22", 0.3024], ["2023-10-22", 0.2776], ["2023-10-23", 0.2782], ["2023-10-23", 0.2618], ["2023-10-23", 0.2653], ["2023-10-24", 0.2644], ["2023-10-25", 0.2594], ["2023-10-26", 0.2539], ["2023-10-26", 0.2539], ["2023-10-26", 0.2506], ["2023-10-27", 0.2306], ["2023-10-27", 0.24], ["2023-10-28", 0.2383], ["2023-10-28", 0.245], ["2023-10-28", 0.2539], ["2023-10-28", 0.2572], ["2023-10-29", 0.2628], ["2023-10-29", 0.265], ["2023-10-30", 0.2628], ["2023-10-31", 0.2611], ["2023-10-31", 0.2556], ["2023-10-31", 0.2567], ["2023-11-01", 0.2694], ["2023-11-01", 0.2721], ["2023-11-01", 0.2589], ["2023-11-01", 0.2668], ["2023-11-01", 0.2695], ["2023-11-01", 0.2579], ["2023-11-01", 0.2558], ["2023-11-01", 0.2611], ["2023-11-02", 0.2826], ["2023-11-02", 0.2974], ["2023-11-02", 0.2895], ["2023-11-02", 0.2947], ["2023-11-02", 0.2945], ["2023-11-02", 0.2975], ["2023-11-02", 0.3025], ["2023-11-02", 0.3145], ["2023-11-03", 0.3275], ["2023-11-03", 0.3275], ["2023-11-03", 0.3325], ["2023-11-03", 0.32], ["2023-11-04", 0.3155], ["2023-11-05", 0.338], ["2023-11-05", 0.338], ["2023-11-06", 0.3435], ["2023-11-07", 0.3445], ["2023-11-09", 0.3435], ["2023-11-10", 0.3435], ["2023-11-10", 0.3435], ["2023-11-10", 0.336], ["2023-11-11", 0.3165], ["2023-11-11", 0.3265], ["2023-11-11", 0.322], ["2023-11-12", 0.31], ["2023-11-13", 0.306], ["2023-11-14", 0.2925], ["2023-11-14", 0.2775], ["2023-11-15", 0.2815], ["2023-11-15", 0.279], ["2023-11-15", 0.2805], ["2023-11-15", 0.2765], ["2023-11-16", 0.2776], ["2023-11-16", 0.2729], ["2023-11-17", 0.2852], ["2023-11-17", 0.2795], ["2023-11-17", 0.2709], ["2023-11-17", 0.2705], ["2023-11-17", 0.2591], ["2023-11-17", 0.2455], ["2023-11-18", 0.2468], ["2023-11-18", 0.2445], ["2023-11-18", 0.2423], ["2023-11-19", 0.24], ["2023-11-19", 0.2309], ["2023-11-19", 0.1905], ["2023-11-20", 0.1905], ["2023-11-20", 0.1905], ["2023-11-20", 0.1882], ["2023-11-21", 0.1836], ["2023-11-21", 0.1745], ["2023-11-21", 0.1764], ["2023-11-22", 0.17], ["2023-11-22", 0.1705], ["2023-11-22", 0.1718], ["2023-11-22", 0.1704], ["2023-11-22", 0.1496], ["2023-11-23", 0.1513], ["2023-11-23", 0.1504], ["2023-11-23", 0.1557], ["2023-11-23", 0.1548], ["2023-11-24", 0.1452], ["2023-11-24", 0.1435], ["2023-11-24", 0.1313], ["2023-11-24", 0.1248], ["2023-11-25", 0.1226], ["2023-11-25", 0.1222], ["2023-11-25", 0.1222], ["2023-11-26", 0.1233], ["2023-11-26", 0.1233], ["2023-11-26", 0.1525], ["2023-11-26", 0.13], ["2023-11-27", 0.1283], ["2023-11-27", 0.1275], ["2023-11-27", 0.1263], ["2023-11-28", 0.125], ["2023-11-29", 0.12], ["2023-11-29", 0.1192], ["2023-11-29", 0.1032], ["2023-11-29", 0.1012], ["2023-11-29", 0.1338], ["2023-11-29", 0.1031], ["2023-11-29", 0.1023], ["2023-11-29", 0.0946], ["2023-11-29", 0.0946], ["2023-11-30", 0.0946], ["2023-11-30", 0.0912], ["2023-12-01", 0.0896], ["2023-12-02", 0.0892], ["2023-12-02", 0.0908], ["2023-12-02", 0.0896], ["2023-12-03", 0.0896], ["2023-12-03", 0.0896], ["2023-12-03", 0.0846], ["2023-12-03", 0.0838], ["2023-12-03", 0.085], ["2023-12-05", 0.0846], ["2023-12-06", 0.0846], ["2023-12-06", 0.0838], ["2023-12-06", 0.0819], ["2023-12-06", 0.0808], ["2023-12-07", 0.0823], ["2023-12-07", 0.0815], ["2023-12-08", 0.0812], ["2023-12-09", 0.0888], ["2023-12-09", 0.0885], ["2023-12-11", 0.0888], ["2023-12-11", 0.0846], ["2023-12-11", 0.0869], ["2023-12-12", 0.0869], ["2023-12-12", 0.0869], ["2023-12-14", 0.0837], ["2023-12-15", 0.0485], ["2023-12-15", 0.0481], ["2023-12-15", 0.0478], ["2023-12-15", 0.0474], ["2023-12-16", 0.0459], ["2023-12-16", 0.0463], ["2023-12-16", 0.0456], ["2023-12-16", 0.0437], ["2023-12-17", 0.0419], ["2023-12-17", 0.0515], ["2023-12-18", 0.0515], ["2023-12-19", 0.0496], ["2023-12-19", 0.0481], ["2023-12-19", 0.0481], ["2023-12-19", 0.0474], ["2023-12-20", 0.0463], ["2023-12-20", 0.05], ["2023-12-20", 0.0489], ["2023-12-20", 0.0396], ["2023-12-20", 0.0396], ["2023-12-21", 0.0382], ["2023-12-21", 0.0389], ["2023-12-22", 0.0375], ["2023-12-22", 0.0357], ["2023-12-22", 0.04], ["2023-12-22", 0.03], ["2023-12-22", 0.03], ["2023-12-23", 0.03], ["2023-12-23", 0.03], ["2023-12-23", 0.03], ["2023-12-23", 0.03], ["2023-12-25", 0.03], ["2023-12-25", 0.03], ["2023-12-26", 0.02], ["2023-12-26", 0.0462], ["2023-12-26", 0.0462], ["2023-12-26", 0.0462], ["2023-12-26", 0.045], ["2023-12-26", 0.0447], ["2023-12-26", 0.0447], ["2023-12-26", 0.0443], ["2023-12-26", 0.044], ["2023-12-27", 0.044], ["2023-12-27", 0.0442], ["2023-12-27", 0.0448], ["2023-12-27", 0.0448], ["2023-12-27", 0.0448], ["2023-12-28", 0.0434], ["2023-12-28", 0.0431], ["2023-12-29", 0.035], ["2023-12-29", 0.0347], ["2023-12-29", 0.0336], ["2023-12-30", 0.0336], ["2023-12-30", 0.033], ["2023-12-30", 0.0324], ["2023-12-31", 0.0324], ["2023-12-31", 0.0321], ["2024-01-01", 0.0318], ["2024-01-01", 0.0315], ["2024-01-01", 0.0315]] | ["https://www.timesofisrael.com/jordan-recalls-ambassador-from-israel-to-protest-carnage-in-war-with-hamas/", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/11/01/Jordan-summons-its-ambassador-to-Israel-immediately", "https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-israel-jordan-qatar-saudi-arabia-the-united-arab-emirates-and-egypt/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_blUhFsH3Sc", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-arab-allies-face-quandary-israel-shifts-hard-right-2023-01-05/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2952 | <p>On 20 June 2023, Twitter owner Elon Musk apparently challenged Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match (<a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1671364992665264131" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.si.com/boxing/2023/07/19/mark-zuckerberg-elon-musk-fight-how-trainers-think-they-should-prepare" target="_blank">Sports Illustrated</a>, <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082095-ufc-legend-jorge-masvidal-wants-to-train-elon-musk-for-mark-zuckerberg-fight" target="_blank">Bleacher Report</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/12/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-feuding-timeline-00105882" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The match/fight involving some form of physical combat must be viewable by the public (e.g., broadcast, physically present audience, pay-per-view) in real time with some form of official (e.g., referee, umpire) present and in putative control of the event to count. The physical combat must involve direct contact, and such contact made while wearing gloves, armor, or other gear/clothing would count. Physical combat with the use of hand-held implements (e.g., clubs, axes, swords, spears, morning stars, flails, lances, hammers) would count, though combat solely with the use of projectile weapons (e.g., bows, crossbows, firearms, slings) would not count. Whether the match/fight is staged or scripted is immaterial, and the involvement of an actual cage is not necessary to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly engage in physical combat in an officiated setting before 1 February 2024? | 2023-07-21 | [["2023-07-21", 0.4], ["2023-07-21", 0.205], ["2023-07-21", 0.1367], ["2023-07-21", 0.3475], ["2023-07-21", 0.382], ["2023-07-21", 0.3583], ["2023-07-21", 0.3086], ["2023-07-21", 0.285], ["2023-07-21", 0.2644], ["2023-07-21", 0.244], ["2023-07-22", 0.2236], ["2023-07-22", 0.2133], ["2023-07-22", 0.1985], ["2023-07-22", 0.1843], ["2023-07-22", 0.1686], ["2023-07-22", 0.1573], ["2023-07-22", 0.1475], ["2023-07-22", 0.1447], ["2023-07-22", 0.1367], ["2023-07-22", 0.1347], ["2023-07-22", 0.1342], ["2023-07-22", 0.128], ["2023-07-22", 0.1238], ["2023-07-22", 0.1248], ["2023-07-22", 0.12], ["2023-07-22", 0.1291], ["2023-07-22", 0.1238], ["2023-07-23", 0.1228], ["2023-07-23", 0.12], ["2023-07-23", 0.1159], ["2023-07-23", 0.1261], ["2023-07-23", 0.1252], ["2023-07-23", 0.1248], ["2023-07-23", 0.1207], ["2023-07-23", 0.119], ["2023-07-23", 0.1156], ["2023-07-24", 0.113], ["2023-07-24", 0.1097], ["2023-07-24", 0.1097], ["2023-07-24", 0.1066], ["2023-07-24", 0.1069], ["2023-07-24", 0.1111], ["2023-07-24", 0.1087], ["2023-07-24", 0.1144], ["2023-07-24", 0.1128], ["2023-07-24", 0.11], ["2023-07-24", 0.1095], ["2023-07-24", 0.107], ["2023-07-24", 0.1047], ["2023-07-24", 0.1091], ["2023-07-24", 0.1269], ["2023-07-24", 0.1087], ["2023-07-24", 0.1084], ["2023-07-24", 0.1065], ["2023-07-24", 0.1064], ["2023-07-24", 0.12], ["2023-07-24", 0.1215], ["2023-07-24", 0.1217], ["2023-07-24", 0.1215], ["2023-07-25", 0.1245], ["2023-07-25", 0.1245], ["2023-07-25", 0.1257], ["2023-07-25", 0.1289], ["2023-07-25", 0.1289], ["2023-07-25", 0.1274], ["2023-07-25", 0.1249], ["2023-07-25", 0.1243], ["2023-07-25", 0.1261], ["2023-07-25", 0.1237], ["2023-07-25", 0.1302], ["2023-07-25", 0.1312], ["2023-07-25", 0.1286], ["2023-07-25", 0.1258], ["2023-07-25", 0.127], ["2023-07-25", 0.1291], ["2023-07-25", 0.1263], ["2023-07-25", 0.1289], ["2023-07-25", 0.1262], ["2023-07-25", 0.1235], ["2023-07-25", 0.1237], ["2023-07-26", 0.1226], ["2023-07-26", 0.1291], ["2023-07-26", 0.1335], ["2023-07-26", 0.1253], ["2023-07-26", 0.1298], ["2023-07-26", 0.1284], ["2023-07-27", 0.1269], ["2023-07-27", 0.126], ["2023-07-27", 0.1237], ["2023-07-27", 0.13], ["2023-07-27", 0.1264], ["2023-07-27", 0.1282], ["2023-07-27", 0.1255], ["2023-07-27", 0.1297], ["2023-07-27", 0.1268], ["2023-07-28", 0.11], ["2023-07-28", 0.1141], ["2023-07-28", 0.1141], ["2023-07-29", 0.1131], ["2023-07-29", 0.1127], ["2023-07-30", 0.1127], ["2023-07-30", 0.1168], ["2023-07-30", 0.1176], ["2023-07-30", 0.1176], ["2023-07-31", 0.1191], ["2023-07-31", 0.1083], ["2023-07-31", 0.1034], ["2023-07-31", 0.1123], ["2023-07-31", 0.1133], ["2023-08-01", 0.1133], ["2023-08-01", 0.115], ["2023-08-01", 0.0917], ["2023-08-01", 0.0897], ["2023-08-01", 0.0924], ["2023-08-01", 0.0876], ["2023-08-01", 0.0911], ["2023-08-01", 0.0897], ["2023-08-01", 0.0892], ["2023-08-01", 0.0868], ["2023-08-01", 0.0868], ["2023-08-02", 0.0866], ["2023-08-02", 0.0829], ["2023-08-02", 0.0724], ["2023-08-02", 0.0726], ["2023-08-02", 0.0787], ["2023-08-02", 0.0795], ["2023-08-02", 0.08], ["2023-08-02", 0.079], ["2023-08-03", 0.0862], ["2023-08-03", 0.0868], ["2023-08-03", 0.0863], ["2023-08-04", 0.0878], ["2023-08-04", 0.0875], ["2023-08-04", 0.0838], ["2023-08-04", 0.0838], 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0.0658], ["2023-10-11", 0.0658], ["2023-10-11", 0.0657], ["2023-10-11", 0.0644], ["2023-10-12", 0.0644], ["2023-10-12", 0.0637], ["2023-10-14", 0.0637], ["2023-10-15", 0.0631], ["2023-10-16", 0.0631], ["2023-10-16", 0.0628], ["2023-10-16", 0.0628], ["2023-10-16", 0.0628], ["2023-10-16", 0.0624], ["2023-10-17", 0.0622], ["2023-10-19", 0.062], ["2023-10-21", 0.0619], ["2023-10-21", 0.0617], ["2023-10-21", 0.0615], ["2023-10-21", 0.0613], ["2023-10-21", 0.0611], ["2023-10-22", 0.0611], ["2023-10-22", 0.0611], ["2023-10-23", 0.0611], ["2023-10-23", 0.0639], ["2023-10-23", 0.0639], ["2023-10-24", 0.06], ["2023-10-24", 0.0602], ["2023-10-25", 0.06], ["2023-10-25", 0.0594], ["2023-10-27", 0.0594], ["2023-10-28", 0.0622], ["2023-10-28", 0.0448], ["2023-10-29", 0.0431], ["2023-10-30", 0.0428], ["2023-10-30", 0.043], ["2023-10-30", 0.0467], ["2023-10-30", 0.0535], ["2023-10-30", 0.0513], ["2023-10-30", 0.0513], ["2023-10-31", 0.0513], ["2023-11-01", 0.0513], ["2023-11-01", 0.0529], ["2023-11-04", 0.0511], ["2023-11-04", 0.0505], ["2023-11-04", 0.0505], ["2023-11-04", 0.0496], ["2023-11-04", 0.0443], ["2023-11-05", 0.0434], ["2023-11-05", 0.043], ["2023-11-05", 0.043], ["2023-11-05", 0.0421], ["2023-11-05", 0.0404], ["2023-11-07", 0.0402], ["2023-11-08", 0.0402], ["2023-11-08", 0.0402], ["2023-11-08", 0.0402], ["2023-11-09", 0.0402], ["2023-11-11", 0.038], ["2023-11-11", 0.0375], ["2023-11-11", 0.0366], ["2023-11-11", 0.036], ["2023-11-12", 0.0358], ["2023-11-12", 0.034], ["2023-11-12", 0.0358], ["2023-11-13", 0.0356], ["2023-11-14", 0.0354], ["2023-11-14", 0.0354], ["2023-11-15", 0.0353], ["2023-11-15", 0.0347], ["2023-11-16", 0.0347], ["2023-11-16", 0.0347], ["2023-11-16", 0.0344], ["2023-11-16", 0.034], ["2023-11-17", 0.034], ["2023-11-17", 0.034], ["2023-11-17", 0.0325], ["2023-11-19", 0.0325], ["2023-11-20", 0.0325], ["2023-11-20", 0.0325], ["2023-11-22", 0.0325], ["2023-11-22", 0.0325], ["2023-11-24", 0.0325], ["2023-11-25", 0.0321], ["2023-11-25", 0.0319], ["2023-11-25", 0.0316], ["2023-11-26", 0.0316], ["2023-11-26", 0.0319], ["2023-11-26", 0.0319], ["2023-11-27", 0.0319], ["2023-11-27", 0.0319], ["2023-11-29", 0.0319], ["2023-11-29", 0.0319], ["2023-12-01", 0.0319], ["2023-12-03", 0.0319], ["2023-12-04", 0.0314], ["2023-12-04", 0.0305], ["2023-12-04", 0.0288], ["2023-12-06", 0.0288], ["2023-12-07", 0.0283], ["2023-12-07", 0.0283], ["2023-12-08", 0.0283], ["2023-12-10", 0.0283], ["2023-12-11", 0.0283], ["2023-12-11", 0.0283], ["2023-12-12", 0.0283], ["2023-12-12", 0.0283], ["2023-12-12", 0.0283], ["2023-12-12", 0.0283], ["2023-12-13", 0.028], ["2023-12-13", 0.0277], ["2023-12-13", 0.02], ["2023-12-15", 0.02], ["2023-12-15", 0.02], ["2023-12-17", 0.02], ["2023-12-18", 0.02], ["2023-12-18", 0.02], ["2023-12-18", 0.02], ["2023-12-19", 0.01], ["2023-12-19", 0.01], ["2023-12-19", 0.01], ["2023-12-19", 0.01], ["2023-12-21", 0.0234], ["2023-12-22", 0.0234], ["2023-12-25", 0.0236], ["2023-12-26", 0.0242], ["2023-12-26", 0.0234], ["2023-12-27", 0.0234], ["2023-12-27", 0.0235], ["2023-12-27", 0.0263], ["2023-12-27", 0.0232], ["2023-12-27", 0.0232], ["2023-12-28", 0.0232], ["2023-12-28", 0.0244], ["2023-12-28", 0.0273], ["2023-12-29", 0.0273], ["2023-12-29", 0.0273], ["2023-12-29", 0.0284], ["2023-12-30", 0.0284], ["2023-12-30", 0.0284], ["2024-01-01", 0.028], ["2024-01-01", 0.0278], ["2024-01-01", 0.0276], ["2024-01-02", 0.0276], ["2024-01-03", 0.0274], ["2024-01-03", 0.028], ["2024-01-03", 0.0244], ["2024-01-05", 0.0206], ["2024-01-07", 0.0206], ["2024-01-07", 0.0204], ["2024-01-08", 0.0203], ["2024-01-08", 0.0201], ["2024-01-08", 0.01], ["2024-01-09", 0.01], ["2024-01-09", 0.01], ["2024-01-09", 0.01], ["2024-01-11", 0.01], ["2024-01-12", 0.01]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/11/04/meta-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-tore-his-acl-while-training-for-a-competitive-mma-fight.html", "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-noble-debate-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-2023-8?op=1", "https://combatmuseum.com/how-long-do-ufc-fighters-train-for-a-fight/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKIMju_PRjo", "https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10088614-mark-zuckerberg-vs-elon-musk-fight-probably-not-happening-ufcs-dana-white-says.amp.html", "https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/mark-zuckerberg-meta-chef-erleidet-kreuzbandriss-a-3ab86c12-de99-497f-850c-85939daef734", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1689969006910861312", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duel", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/business/mark-zuckerberg-jiu-jitsu-winner/index.html", "https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-debate-zuckerberg-instead-fight", "https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/fini-la-mascarade-kaaris-renonce-a-son-combat-avec-booba-19-09-2019-8155965.php", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1689963696703848449", "https://manifold.markets/Bdog/musk-vs-zuckerberg-fight-will-the-f", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1691541362079068162?t=7VnI2h5sqgq-O57MvIEo-g&s=19", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688091377823895552?s=20", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/technology/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-match.html", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/italy-stands-ready-host-musk-talks-up-zuckerberg-rumble-2023-08-11/", "https://www.threads.net/@zuck/post/Cv5CV3-rMKb", "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/nov/04/mark-zuckerberg-torn-acl-mma-training-fight", "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-28598abc5be6959f01c1b0079211a360", "https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/8-years-of-pain-old-photo-of-elon-musk-fighting-a-sumo-wrestler-goes-viral-3839982", "https://www.foxnews.com/sports/elon-musk-may-require-surgery-before-fight-mark-zuckerberg-can-happen", "https://bloodyelbow.com/2023/06/28/elon-musk-wants-to-fight-mama-hates-it/#:~:text=Twitter%20CEO%20and%20mega-billionaire%20Elon%20Musk%20wants%20to,Maye%20Musk%2C%20Elon%27s%20mom%2C%20is%20not%20having%20it", "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-match-surgery-ab2db3d27862fb9ef188d438bf002862", "https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085809-elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-fight-confirmed-money-will-be-donated-to-veterans"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3202 | <p>Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (<a href="https://ktla.com/news/california-politics/steve-garvey-climbing-the-polls-in-californias-u-s-senate-race/" target="_blank">KTLA</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/21/schiff-california-senate-00132816" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_California,_2024" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024? | 2024-01-04 | [["2024-01-05", 0.35], ["2024-01-05", 0.32], ["2024-01-05", 0.2133], ["2024-01-06", 0.3475], ["2024-01-06", 0.358], ["2024-01-06", 0.3767], ["2024-01-06", 0.3657], ["2024-01-06", 0.3638], ["2024-01-06", 0.39], ["2024-01-07", 0.356], ["2024-01-07", 0.3236], ["2024-01-07", 0.3467], ["2024-01-07", 0.3808], ["2024-01-07", 0.425], ["2024-01-07", 0.41], ["2024-01-08", 0.4156], ["2024-01-08", 0.4424], ["2024-01-08", 0.4456], ["2024-01-08", 0.44], ["2024-01-08", 0.4189], ["2024-01-08", 0.433], ["2024-01-09", 0.4661], ["2024-01-09", 0.4416], ["2024-01-09", 0.4731], ["2024-01-09", 0.4676], ["2024-01-10", 0.5121], ["2024-01-10", 0.4942], ["2024-01-10", 0.5046], ["2024-01-11", 0.5067], ["2024-01-11", 0.4925], ["2024-01-11", 0.4808], ["2024-01-11", 0.485], ["2024-01-12", 0.5342], ["2024-01-12", 0.535], ["2024-01-12", 0.5433], ["2024-01-12", 0.5354], ["2024-01-12", 0.5069], ["2024-01-12", 0.5069]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3162 |
<p>Over three years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-india-disputed-border-talks-tensions-ad3b53da1007b73f9c79b48bee938019" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/10/three-things-know-about-china-india-tensions" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute" target="_blank">International Crisis Group</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2025? | 2023-12-13 | [["2023-12-13", 0.33], ["2023-12-13", 0.665], ["2023-12-13", 0.6467], ["2023-12-13", 0.6], ["2023-12-13", 0.622], ["2023-12-13", 0.585], ["2023-12-13", 0.5043], ["2023-12-13", 0.46], ["2023-12-13", 0.4489], ["2023-12-13", 0.434], ["2023-12-13", 0.4218], ["2023-12-13", 0.3992], ["2023-12-13", 0.3933], ["2023-12-13", 0.3631], ["2023-12-13", 0.3514], ["2023-12-13", 0.3413], ["2023-12-13", 0.32], ["2023-12-13", 0.3041], ["2023-12-13", 0.2894], ["2023-12-13", 0.3268], ["2023-12-13", 0.311], ["2023-12-13", 0.318], ["2023-12-14", 0.3071], ["2023-12-14", 0.3023], ["2023-12-14", 0.2957], ["2023-12-14", 0.293], ["2023-12-14", 0.2858], ["2023-12-14", 0.2964], ["2023-12-14", 0.2912], ["2023-12-14", 0.2896], ["2023-12-14", 0.2889], ["2023-12-14", 0.2993], ["2023-12-14", 0.2983], ["2023-12-15", 0.2933], ["2023-12-15", 0.2871], ["2023-12-15", 0.3063], ["2023-12-15", 0.2988], ["2023-12-15", 0.2991], ["2023-12-15", 0.3124], ["2023-12-15", 0.3124], ["2023-12-15", 0.3051], ["2023-12-16", 0.3057], ["2023-12-16", 0.3064], ["2023-12-17", 0.305], ["2023-12-18", 0.3038], ["2023-12-18", 0.2944], ["2023-12-18", 0.2875], ["2023-12-18", 0.2882], ["2023-12-18", 0.2847], ["2023-12-18", 0.2529], ["2023-12-18", 0.2944], ["2023-12-18", 0.2861], ["2023-12-18", 0.2889], ["2023-12-18", 0.2816], ["2023-12-19", 0.3184], ["2023-12-19", 0.311], ["2023-12-20", 0.2815], ["2023-12-20", 0.28], ["2023-12-21", 0.259], ["2023-12-21", 0.2467], ["2023-12-21", 0.2376], ["2023-12-21", 0.2352], ["2023-12-22", 0.2452], ["2023-12-22", 0.2432], ["2023-12-22", 0.2664], ["2023-12-23", 0.2536], ["2023-12-25", 0.2426], ["2023-12-26", 0.2452], ["2023-12-26", 0.2496], ["2023-12-26", 0.2392], ["2023-12-27", 0.2563], ["2023-12-27", 0.24], ["2023-12-27", 0.2492], ["2023-12-27", 0.2617], ["2023-12-28", 0.2832], ["2023-12-28", 0.2844], ["2023-12-28", 0.2868], ["2023-12-29", 0.2873], ["2023-12-30", 0.2504], ["2023-12-31", 0.2635], ["2023-12-31", 0.2846], ["2024-01-01", 0.2585], ["2024-01-01", 0.2538], ["2024-01-02", 0.2537], ["2024-01-02", 0.2537], ["2024-01-03", 0.2544], ["2024-01-03", 0.2507], ["2024-01-04", 0.2678], ["2024-01-04", 0.2926], ["2024-01-04", 0.2933], ["2024-01-05", 0.2832], ["2024-01-06", 0.2832], ["2024-01-07", 0.2864], ["2024-01-08", 0.2864], ["2024-01-08", 0.2936], ["2024-01-08", 0.2936], ["2024-01-09", 0.2936], ["2024-01-09", 0.2914], ["2024-01-12", 0.2841], ["2024-01-12", 0.2583], ["2024-01-12", 0.2624], ["2024-01-12", 0.2721], ["2024-01-12", 0.2721]] | ["https://www.economist.com/china/2023/11/02/china-and-bhutan-aim-to-resolve-a-long-running-border-dispute", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66669341", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/shock-and-anger-in-india-after-worst-attack-on-china-border-in-decades"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3129 | <p>New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been subject to a corruption investigation related to campaign financing (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/18/politics/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-sets-up-legal-defense-fund-amid-fbi-investigation/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/11/17/metro/additional-fbi-raids-revealed-in-eric-adams-campaign-fundraising-probe/" target="_blank">NY Post</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/17/eric-adams-turkey-connections-fbi-campaign-finance-investigation-00127716" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Eric Adams cease to be mayor of New York City before 27 July 2024? | 2023-11-22 | [["2023-11-24", 0.66], ["2023-11-24", 0.335], ["2023-11-24", 0.2233], ["2023-11-24", 0.4175], ["2023-11-25", 0.432], ["2023-11-25", 0.4767], ["2023-11-25", 0.4414], ["2023-11-25", 0.4638], ["2023-11-25", 0.4856], ["2023-11-25", 0.4922], ["2023-11-25", 0.543], ["2023-11-25", 0.5209], ["2023-11-25", 0.4817], ["2023-11-25", 0.4792], ["2023-11-25", 0.4664], ["2023-11-25", 0.4736], ["2023-11-25", 0.4821], ["2023-11-25", 0.47], ["2023-11-26", 0.4563], ["2023-11-26", 0.4625], ["2023-11-26", 0.4518], ["2023-11-26", 0.4322], ["2023-11-26", 0.4258], ["2023-11-26", 0.4142], ["2023-11-26", 0.4126], ["2023-11-26", 0.392], ["2023-11-27", 0.3781], ["2023-11-27", 0.3952], ["2023-11-27", 0.3829], ["2023-11-27", 0.3836], ["2023-11-27", 0.3691], ["2023-11-27", 0.3404], ["2023-11-27", 0.3173], ["2023-11-28", 0.3209], ["2023-11-28", 0.3271], ["2023-11-28", 0.3176], ["2023-11-28", 0.2645], ["2023-11-28", 0.2182], ["2023-11-28", 0.2439], ["2023-11-29", 0.2367], ["2023-11-29", 0.2313], ["2023-11-30", 0.3092], ["2023-11-30", 0.2815], ["2023-12-01", 0.2969], ["2023-12-01", 0.3085], ["2023-12-01", 0.3062], ["2023-12-01", 0.3069], ["2023-12-02", 0.285], ["2023-12-03", 0.2893], ["2023-12-04", 0.2879], ["2023-12-06", 0.2993], ["2023-12-07", 0.2921], ["2023-12-08", 0.2886], ["2023-12-08", 0.2586], ["2023-12-12", 0.2643], ["2023-12-13", 0.2564], ["2023-12-14", 0.2443], ["2023-12-14", 0.2436], ["2023-12-15", 0.2343], ["2023-12-16", 0.2236], ["2023-12-19", 0.2087], ["2023-12-20", 0.2287], ["2023-12-21", 0.2269], ["2023-12-21", 0.2269], ["2023-12-21", 0.2269], ["2023-12-22", 0.2194], ["2023-12-22", 0.2213], ["2023-12-22", 0.2363], ["2023-12-23", 0.2344], ["2023-12-24", 0.2431], ["2023-12-25", 0.2759], ["2023-12-27", 0.2871], ["2023-12-27", 0.2794], ["2023-12-27", 0.2741], ["2023-12-27", 0.2753], ["2023-12-29", 0.2765], ["2023-12-29", 0.2835], ["2023-12-31", 0.2882], ["2024-01-01", 0.2744], ["2024-01-03", 0.2606], ["2024-01-03", 0.2767], ["2024-01-03", 0.2583], ["2024-01-04", 0.2667], ["2024-01-04", 0.2667], ["2024-01-05", 0.2605], ["2024-01-05", 0.26], ["2024-01-05", 0.26], ["2024-01-08", 0.2668], ["2024-01-09", 0.2179], ["2024-01-09", 0.2179], ["2024-01-10", 0.2245], ["2024-01-11", 0.2245], ["2024-01-11", 0.2235], ["2024-01-12", 0.2195], ["2024-01-12", 0.2195]] | ["https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-details-emerge-in-fbi-criminal-probe-into-democrat-eric-adams/ar-AA1jWpgv"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/220 | Use the rationale box to suggest questions about electric vehicles that you would like to forecast on. Ideally, these will be questions that resolve before the end of 2016. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58" target="_blank">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60" target="_blank">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/212" target="_blank">Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-06-14T16:27:59.673Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "60%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 408, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.6, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.6, "probability_formatted": "60%", "question_id": 220, "question_name": "Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-11-27T17:06:44.880Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 136, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Use the rationale box to suggest questions about electric vehicles that you would like to forecast on. Ideally, these will be questions that resolve before the end of 2016. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/212\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-12-01T07:59:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 220, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:08.506+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:02.382+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2016-06-14T16:27:59.751Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-06-14T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-06-14T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.849Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/139 | This question was scored in error. There is no correct answer, and any scores assigned for forecasts on this question have now been revoked. We apologize for this error.
This is an opinion question which will not be scored. The goal of this Challenge is to assess whether forecasting can have a moderating effect on polarizing debates. As such, we are asking you to track how your beliefs about the Iranian nuclear deal change over the course of the Challenge and we hope you will provide commentary on what is driving that change (e.g., exchanges with other forecasters, a particularly thought provoking op-ed, new developments). It would be particularly helpful if you re-engage on this thread when big events occur. Knowing what events shift opinions (and what events don't) will help us better understand the link between forecasting and opinion formation. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-02-09T17:37:27.936Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "85%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 260, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Indicate your approval on a 100 point scale with 0 being very strong disapproval and 100 being very strong approval.", "normalized_probability": 0.85, "positions_count": 560, "predictions_count": 701, "probability": 0.85, "probability_formatted": "85%", "question_id": 139, "question_name": "(Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-12-21T17:13:18.483Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 739, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was scored in error. There is no correct answer, and any scores assigned for forecasts on this question have now been revoked. We apologize for this error.\r\n\r\nThis is an opinion question which will not be scored. The goal of this Challenge is to assess whether forecasting can have a moderating effect on polarizing debates. As such, we are asking you to track how your beliefs about the Iranian nuclear deal change over the course of the Challenge and we hope you will provide commentary on what is driving that change (e.g., exchanges with other forecasters, a particularly thought provoking op-ed, new developments). It would be particularly helpful if you re-engage on this thread when big events occur. Knowing what events shift opinions (and what events don't) will help us better understand the link between forecasting and opinion formation.", "ends_at": "2016-10-18T06:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 139, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:56:41.482+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:56:03.595+00:00"}, "name": "(Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 701, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 560, "published_at": "2016-02-09T17:39:21.872Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-02-09T10:00:35.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-02-09T18:00:35.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.816Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/229 | The outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership came as a surprise to many. Most forecasters placed low probabilities on the "leave" campaign winning the day. Join the GJ community in taking a moment to reflect, learn, and share the lessons of Brexit. The post-mortem process is one of the key ways in which we become better forecasters (<a href = "http://www.superforecasting.com/superforecasting-brexit-were-most-forecasters-wrong-or-just-unlucky/" target = "_blank">Superforecasting</a>). As you compare your forecasts with the way events unfolded, what is most striking? What have you learned about forecasting? Was this a low probability event that just happened to occur or did most forecasters underestimate the odds of Brexit? What key risk factors were missed? What lessons can be drawn and which of those lessons can be applied more broadly to other forecasting questions? Are you changing your assessment of any other questions based on the lessons you have learned here? Please use the rationale box to post your reflections on the outcome of the Brexit referendum and the forecast box to indicate what you believe the true probability was for remain to prevail. This is an open question that will not be scored. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-07-01T16:46:28.772Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "80%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 423, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.8, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 89, "probability": 0.8, "probability_formatted": "80%", "question_id": 229, "question_name": "Open: What did you learn from the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-01T21:12:14.023Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 274, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership came as a surprise to many. Most forecasters placed low probabilities on the \"leave\" campaign winning the day. Join the GJ community in taking a moment to reflect, learn, and share the lessons of Brexit. The post-mortem process is one of the key ways in which we become better forecasters (<a href = \"http://www.superforecasting.com/superforecasting-brexit-were-most-forecasters-wrong-or-just-unlucky/\" target = \"_blank\">Superforecasting</a>). As you compare your forecasts with the way events unfolded, what is most striking? What have you learned about forecasting? Was this a low probability event that just happened to occur or did most forecasters underestimate the odds of Brexit? What key risk factors were missed? What lessons can be drawn and which of those lessons can be applied more broadly to other forecasting questions? Are you changing your assessment of any other questions based on the lessons you have learned here? Please use the rationale box to post your reflections on the outcome of the Brexit referendum and the forecast box to indicate what you believe the true probability was for remain to prevail. This is an open question that will not be scored.", "ends_at": "2016-07-16T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 229, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:41.470+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:36.597+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What did you learn from the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 89, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 80, "published_at": "2016-07-01T16:46:28.814Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-01T10:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-01T17:00:33.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-11-26T13:58:50.490Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/59 | This is an open ended question, with no scoring. Use the rationale box to write your answer and the forecast field to assign a probability to your event.
We'll consult this thread for possible question ideas for the future. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2015-10-09T15:54:32.236Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "75%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 99, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Probability of event", "normalized_probability": 0.75, "positions_count": 128, "predictions_count": 218, "probability": 0.75, "probability_formatted": "75%", "question_id": 59, "question_name": "Open: What events do you foresee happening in the rest of 2015?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-18T16:46:07.307Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 372, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This is an open ended question, with no scoring. Use the rationale box to write your answer and the forecast field to assign a probability to your event.\r\n\r\nWe'll consult this thread for possible question ideas for the future.", "ends_at": "2015-12-02T07:59:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 59, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:30.327+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:10.484+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What events do you foresee happening in the rest of 2015?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 218, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 128, "published_at": "2015-10-09T15:55:28.525Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-10-09T14:00:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-10-09T21:00:32.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:30.362Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/83 | We are inviting challenge participants to share news stories that have prompted them to re-evaluate the Iran deal. Share news that have made you more optimistic or pessimistic about the deal and tell us why. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2015-11-17T17:55:20.308Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "50%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 137, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Remember to post the news article first. Then, how your opinion of the Iran deal changed after reading the article? (50% = no change; 100% =much more optimistic; 0% = much more pessimistic). We're looking for level of change here, not opinion!", "normalized_probability": 0.5, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 63, "probability": 0.5, "probability_formatted": "50%", "question_id": 83, "question_name": "Open: What news stories have prompted you to reassess your opinion of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-18T16:38:01.916Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 98, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "We are inviting challenge participants to share news stories that have prompted them to re-evaluate the Iran deal. Share news that have made you more optimistic or pessimistic about the deal and tell us why.", "ends_at": "2016-02-11T14:45:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 83, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:50:05.997+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:50:01.307+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What news stories have prompted you to reassess your opinion of the Iranian nuclear deal?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 63, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 51, "published_at": "2015-11-17T17:56:25.686Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-11-17T10:00:46.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-11-17T18:00:46.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.816Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/126 | This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of Iowa's caucuses. Also let us know what information, in retrospect, you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-02-02T16:40:54.673Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "35%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 241, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Remember to say in comments what surprised you, or what you misjudged. Then enter level of surprise (0%=No surprise, 100%=Completely surprised).", "normalized_probability": 0.35, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.35, "probability_formatted": "35%", "question_id": 126, "question_name": "Open (Exit Poll): Were you surprised by the outcome of Iowa's caucuses?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-18T16:30:23.445Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 309, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of Iowa's caucuses. Also let us know what information, in retrospect, you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions.", "ends_at": "2016-02-09T07:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 126, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:51.470+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:27.840+00:00"}, "name": "Open (Exit Poll): Were you surprised by the outcome of Iowa's caucuses?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 274, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 251, "published_at": "2016-02-02T16:42:16.301Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-02-02T08:43:08.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-02-02T16:43:08.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/347 | This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of the US Presidential election. Were you expecting the final result, or would you have changed your forecast in hindsight? What events led you to make your forecast? What information, in retrospect, do you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-11-08T17:29:27.465Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "70%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 651, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Remember to say in comments what surprised you, or what you misjudged. Then enter level of surprise (0%=No surprise, 100%=Completely surprised).", "normalized_probability": 0.7, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.7, "probability_formatted": "70%", "question_id": 347, "question_name": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the US Presidential election?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-11-21T12:36:21.277Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 367, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of the US Presidential election. Were you expecting the final result, or would you have changed your forecast in hindsight? What events led you to make your forecast? What information, in retrospect, do you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions.\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-11-23T07:59:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 347, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:15:17.643+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:15:05.911+00:00"}, "name": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the US Presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 220, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 197, "published_at": "2016-11-08T17:29:27.610Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-11-08T10:00:37.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:37.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/348 | This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of the Senate and House elections. Were you expecting the final result, or would you have changed your forecast in hindsight? What events led you to make your forecast? What information, in retrospect, do you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/275" target="_blank">the margin of victory in the presidential election</a> (closing very soon!). </sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-11-08T17:34:29.372Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "25%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 652, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Remember to say in comments what surprised you, or what you misjudged. Then enter level of surprise (0%=No surprise, 100%=Completely surprised).", "normalized_probability": 0.25, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.25, "probability_formatted": "25%", "question_id": 348, "question_name": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the Senate and House elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-11-20T17:52:56.436Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 115, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This is an open question which will not be scored. Please use the comment thread to tell us what surprised you about the outcome of the Senate and House elections. Were you expecting the final result, or would you have changed your forecast in hindsight? What events led you to make your forecast? What information, in retrospect, do you wish you would have known during forecasting to improve your predictions.\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/275\" target=\"_blank\">the margin of victory in the presidential election</a> (closing very soon!). </sub>", "ends_at": "2016-11-23T07:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 348, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:15:35.517+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:15:16.640+00:00"}, "name": "(Open: Exit Poll) Were you surprised by the outcome of the Senate and House elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 108, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 101, "published_at": "2016-11-08T17:34:29.572Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-11-08T10:00:51.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/408 | Cyber security risks are a growing challenge to all sectors of the world. In the last year, we've seen Russia sanctioned for using cyber attacks to disrupt elections, a high-priced merger put on hold after Yahoo revealed that millions of accounts had been hacked, and Kiev's power grid taken out by a cyber attack. Good Judgment wants our forecasting community to tackle this important topic in 2017, but we know that the cyber security domain makes it challenging to craft clairvoyant questions and adjudicate those questions using open source material. As we brainstorm how to tackle these issues, we want your ideas. Please use the comment thread to put suggestions about what questions we should ask and how specifically we should ask them, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your prediction. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2017-02-07T15:40:56.757Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "50%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 797, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.5, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 49, "probability": 0.5, "probability_formatted": "50%", "question_id": 408, "question_name": "(Open) What questions about cyber security should GJ ask in 2017 and how should we ask them?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2017-03-06T19:49:13.458Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 68, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Cyber security risks are a growing challenge to all sectors of the world. In the last year, we've seen Russia sanctioned for using cyber attacks to disrupt elections, a high-priced merger put on hold after Yahoo revealed that millions of accounts had been hacked, and Kiev's power grid taken out by a cyber attack. Good Judgment wants our forecasting community to tackle this important topic in 2017, but we know that the cyber security domain makes it challenging to craft clairvoyant questions and adjudicate those questions using open source material. As we brainstorm how to tackle these issues, we want your ideas. Please use the comment thread to put suggestions about what questions we should ask and how specifically we should ask them, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your prediction. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-03-08T07:59:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 408, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:25.538+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:22.753+00:00"}, "name": "(Open) What questions about cyber security should GJ ask in 2017 and how should we ask them?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 49, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 36, "published_at": "2017-02-07T15:40:57.036Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-07T10:00:17.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-07T18:00:17.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/212 | Forecasting can be fun, and we want to know what interests you! Use the rationale box to suggest questions about sports, entertainment, culture, and anything else, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/191" target="_blank">Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58" target="_blank">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60" target="_blank">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-05-31T16:40:35.855Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "55%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 396, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.55, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 131, "probability": 0.55, "probability_formatted": "55%", "question_id": 212, "question_name": "Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-11-28T03:09:04.678Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 247, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Forecasting can be fun, and we want to know what interests you! Use the rationale box to suggest questions about sports, entertainment, culture, and anything else, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/191\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-12-01T07:59:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 212, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:39.077+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:32.795+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 131, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 77, "published_at": "2016-05-31T16:40:35.904Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-31T10:00:25.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-31T17:00:25.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58 | Adversarial Collaboration Participants: this is open ended thread for you to suggest questions. It will not be scored. Please use the rationale box to state your question, and please indicate how you view the Iran nuclear deal in the forecast box, so that we know which camp you’re from. We are striving to includes questions from both camps in our forecasting challenge.
For additional input in the process, you can include your initial probability estimate with your suggested question and a reason why you think your question is important for evaluating Iran's future.
As part of Tetlock's adversarial collaboration experiment (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/the-power-of-precise-predictions.html?_r=0" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>), we are looking for questions that generate testable predictions about the future of the deal and its impacts on Iran, the US, the Middle East, and the world. Let's see how participating in the forecasting process can improve policy debates. Remember good questions are relevant, falsifiable, and have a realistic time horizon (<a href = "http://www.superforecasting.com/polarization-vs-prediction-writing-questions-to-moderate-the-debate-on-iran/" target = "_blank">Superforecasting</a>). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2015-10-09T15:51:05.231Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "60%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 98, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Remember to state your question first. Then, how optimistic are you about the Iran deal? (100% = optimistic; 0% = pessimistic)", "normalized_probability": 0.6, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 319, "probability": 0.6, "probability_formatted": "60%", "question_id": 58, "question_name": "Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-11T18:53:10.146Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 728, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Adversarial Collaboration Participants: this is open ended thread for you to suggest questions. It will not be scored. Please use the rationale box to state your question, and please indicate how you view the Iran nuclear deal in the forecast box, so that we know which camp you\u2019re from. We are striving to includes questions from both camps in our forecasting challenge. \r\n\r\nFor additional input in the process, you can include your initial probability estimate with your suggested question and a reason why you think your question is important for evaluating Iran's future. \r\n\r\nAs part of Tetlock's adversarial collaboration experiment (<a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/the-power-of-precise-predictions.html?_r=0\" target = \"_blank\">NY Times</a>), we are looking for questions that generate testable predictions about the future of the deal and its impacts on Iran, the US, the Middle East, and the world. Let's see how participating in the forecasting process can improve policy debates. Remember good questions are relevant, falsifiable, and have a realistic time horizon (<a href = \"http://www.superforecasting.com/polarization-vs-prediction-writing-questions-to-moderate-the-debate-on-iran/\" target = \"_blank\">Superforecasting</a>).", "ends_at": "2016-10-27T16:40:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 58, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:23.903+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:00.527+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 319, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 197, "published_at": "2015-10-09T15:53:12.299Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-10-09T14:00:05.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-10-09T21:00:05.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.816Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/191 | This is an open-ended question with no scoring. Use the rationale box to suggest questions and the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. We welcome suggestions identifying countries at risk of mass atrocities, but we are especially interested in ideas about political, economic, or social events that might precipitate or help prevent atrocities in relevant cases.
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60" target="_blank">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58" target="_blank">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-05-03T16:46:11.560Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "95%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 365, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Probability of Event", "normalized_probability": 0.95, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.95, "probability_formatted": "95%", "question_id": 191, "question_name": "Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-09-26T18:42:30.703Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 211, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This is an open-ended question with no scoring. Use the rationale box to suggest questions and the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. We welcome suggestions identifying countries at risk of mass atrocities, but we are especially interested in ideas about political, economic, or social events that might precipitate or help prevent atrocities in relevant cases.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/60\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58\" target=\"_blank\">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-10-01T06:59:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 191, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:03:27.118+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:03:22.543+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 85, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2016-05-03T16:46:26.101Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-03T10:00:14.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-03T17:00:14.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.845Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/230 | British voters' decision to leave the European Union is a momentous one that will affect the future of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the world (<a href = "http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990" target = "_blank">Politico</a>). Tell us what you think the consequences of referendum will be and what questions you would like to forecast on. Use the rationale box to suggest questions and the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. Then go look at the suggestions of other users and upvote those that you would potentially like to engage on. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58" target = "_blank">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/191" target = "_blank">Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/212" target = "_blank">Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/220" target = "_blank">Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-07-01T16:51:12.912Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "65%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 424, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.65, "positions_count": 75, "predictions_count": 88, "probability": 0.65, "probability_formatted": "65%", "question_id": 230, "question_name": "Open: What will be the consequences of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-01T21:11:44.828Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 184, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "British voters' decision to leave the European Union is a momentous one that will affect the future of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the world (<a href = \"http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990\" target = \"_blank\">Politico</a>). Tell us what you think the consequences of referendum will be and what questions you would like to forecast on. Use the rationale box to suggest questions and the forecast field to assign a probability to your question. Then go look at the suggestions of other users and upvote those that you would potentially like to engage on. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/58\" target = \"_blank\">Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/191\" target = \"_blank\">Open: What questions should we ask to help assess risks of mass atrocities or identify opportunities to prevent them?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/212\" target = \"_blank\">Open: What questions should we ask in the Just for Fun Challenge?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/220\" target = \"_blank\">Open: What questions should we ask to help predict the future of electric vehicles?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-07-16T06:59:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 230, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:46.216+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:06:41.529+00:00"}, "name": "Open: What will be the consequences of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 88, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 75, "published_at": "2016-07-01T16:51:12.950Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-01T10:00:50.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-01T17:00:50.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/301 | Use the rationale box to predict the key events related to vehicle and mobility innovations, technology diffusion, company strategy, public policy, and/or regulatory guidelines that will impact how people travel by car in the U.S. and worldwide in 2017, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your prediction. The Mack Institute is writing a blog report on the Disruptions in Vehicle Innovations challenge which will review the questions and forecasts included in the 2016 Challenge, as well as the questions that we considered but did not ask. The blog will also highlight forecasters' suggestions about the key questions and events for 2017. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/300" target="_blank">Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-10-14T16:50:54.743Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "75%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 588, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.75, "positions_count": 63, "predictions_count": 72, "probability": 0.75, "probability_formatted": "75%", "question_id": 301, "question_name": "(Open) What key events will drive (or hinder) technological innovation in the automotive industry in 2017?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-12-23T15:15:44.493Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 74, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Use the rationale box to predict the key events related to vehicle and mobility innovations, technology diffusion, company strategy, public policy, and/or regulatory guidelines that will impact how people travel by car in the U.S. and worldwide in 2017, and use the forecast field to assign a probability to your prediction. The Mack Institute is writing a blog report on the Disruptions in Vehicle Innovations challenge which will review the questions and forecasts included in the 2016 Challenge, as well as the questions that we considered but did not ask. The blog will also highlight forecasters' suggestions about the key questions and events for 2017. This is an open-ended question with no scoring.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/284\" target=\"_blank\">Before 2017, will Google announce that it will conduct public testing of its fully autonomous vehicles in a US city?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/300\" target=\"_blank\">Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-01-01T07:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 301, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:45.029+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:40.851+00:00"}, "name": "(Open) What key events will drive (or hinder) technological innovation in the automotive industry in 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 72, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 63, "published_at": "2016-10-14T16:50:54.778Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-10-14T10:00:45.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-10-14T17:00:45.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.849Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/207 | Donald Trump announced that Mike Pence would be his vice presidential running mate on 15 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/07/15/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-presidential-pick/mMIREP5yiRQikYxbLxwY0O/story.html" target="_blank">Boston Globe</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-president.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<br/>
(Open) This is an open question, which will not be scored. Use the rationale box to name Trump's likely pick for vice president and the forecast field to assign a probability to that person being selected.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/159" target="_blank">Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/160" target="_blank">Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?
</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": true, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2016-05-20T18:20:37.218Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "65%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 389, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Probability", "normalized_probability": 0.65, "positions_count": 161, "predictions_count": 234, "probability": 0.65, "probability_formatted": "65%", "question_id": 207, "question_name": "Open: Who will Donald Trump name as his vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Binary::Answer", "updated_at": "2016-08-11T20:20:07.483Z"}], "answers_count": 1, "binary?": true, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 286, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Donald Trump announced that Mike Pence would be his vice presidential running mate on 15 July 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/07/15/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-presidential-pick/mMIREP5yiRQikYxbLxwY0O/story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Boston Globe</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-president.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>). \r\n\r\n<br/>\r\n\r\n(Open) This is an open question, which will not be scored. Use the rationale box to name Trump's likely pick for vice president and the forecast field to assign a probability to that person being selected.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/159\" target=\"_blank\">Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/160\" target=\"_blank\">Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?\r\n</a>", "ends_at": "2016-07-19T18:26:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 207, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:25.300+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:05:07.495+00:00"}, "name": "Open: Who will Donald Trump name as his vice presidential running mate?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 234, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": false, "predictors_count": 161, "published_at": "2016-05-20T18:20:37.309Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-05-20T11:30:03.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-05-20T18:30:03.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Binary::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/586 | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the <a href="http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/" target="_blank">Realtime Data page</a>. The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES' column for events in which the 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE' is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
<hr>
10 battle deaths were recorded by ACLED in Kenya for September 2017. This question closed as "between 6 and 15, inclusive," with an end date of 30 September 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:20:01.509Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1219, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 6", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 586, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-16T13:43:45.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:45.118Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:20:01.574Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1220, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 6 and 15, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 586, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-16T13:43:42.107Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:45.458Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:20:01.688Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1221, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 15", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 90, "predictions_count": 182, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 586, "question_name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-16T13:43:38.052Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:45.966Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 182, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the \"Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File\" found on the <a href=\"http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/\" target=\"_blank\">Realtime Data page</a>. The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES' column for events in which the 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE' is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n10 battle deaths were recorded by ACLED in Kenya for September 2017. This question closed as \"between 6 and 15, inclusive,\" with an end date of 30 September 2017.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-09-30T06:59:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 586, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:15.052+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:51.881+00:00"}, "name": "How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 182, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 90, "published_at": "2017-09-06T16:20:01.995Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-16T13:43:45.641Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-06T09:30:09.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-06T16:30:09.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/310 | In May 2014, China sparked a diplomatic crisis with Vietnam when it deployed its HYSY 981 deep sea oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/china-vietnam-rig-idUSL4N0PQ5TZ20140716" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/china%E2%80%99s-oil-rig-removal-and-asean-regional-forum" target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>), and China has moved the rig into disputed waters on multiple occasions since then (<a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ce35db4f8fdc4039ad407e9a02a93c34/vietnam-demands-china-move-oil-rig" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-china-idUSKCN0X41GD" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The HYSY 981 is China's only deep sea oil rig, but other models are in development and may become operational next year (<a href="http://en.yibada.com/articles/46646/20150720/china-opens-exhibit-featuring-military-civilian-collaborations.htm" target="_blank">YIBADA</a>). The location of HYSY 981 (MMSI number 413464330) can be found <a href="http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:565777/mmsi:413464330/imo:9480344/vessel:HAI_YANG_SHI_YOU_981" target="_blank">here</a> and this marine traffic site can be used to track other vessels as well.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
China did not deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission. This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-01T16:40:57.931Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 609, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1038, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 310, "question_name": "When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:55:18.805Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:29.270Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-01T16:40:57.970Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 610, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 January and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1038, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 310, "question_name": "When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:57:06.993Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:29.675Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-01T16:40:57.993Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 611, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 July and 31 December 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1038, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 310, "question_name": "When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:53:18.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:29.942Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-01T16:40:58.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 612, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 265, "predictions_count": 1038, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 310, "question_name": "When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:51:11.024Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:30.931Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1050, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-11-21T20:17:37.902Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 405, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "5%", "description": "In May 2014, China sparked a diplomatic crisis with Vietnam when it deployed its HYSY 981 deep sea oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/china-vietnam-rig-idUSL4N0PQ5TZ20140716\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.csis.org/analysis/china%E2%80%99s-oil-rig-removal-and-asean-regional-forum\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>), and China has moved the rig into disputed waters on multiple occasions since then (<a href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ce35db4f8fdc4039ad407e9a02a93c34/vietnam-demands-china-move-oil-rig\" target=\"_blank\">Associated Press</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-china-idUSKCN0X41GD\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The HYSY 981 is China's only deep sea oil rig, but other models are in development and may become operational next year (<a href=\"http://en.yibada.com/articles/46646/20150720/china-opens-exhibit-featuring-military-civilian-collaborations.htm\" target=\"_blank\">YIBADA</a>). The location of HYSY 981 (MMSI number 413464330) can be found <a href=\"http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:565777/mmsi:413464330/imo:9480344/vessel:HAI_YANG_SHI_YOU_981\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and this marine traffic site can be used to track other vessels as well.\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nChina did not deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission. This question closed as \"Not before 1 January 2018\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 310, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:16:47.994+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:14:39.117+00:00"}, "name": "When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1038, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 265, "published_at": "2016-11-01T16:40:58.162Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-08T15:57:07.072Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-11-01T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-11-01T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/887 | Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/2018-election-calendar/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018"target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "The Republican Party with 53 senators or more" with an end date of 6 November 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-26T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:29:26.700Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1946, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 349, "predictions_count": 898, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 887, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections? 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", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:53:04.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:32.546Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-26T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:29:26.822Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1949, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Republican Party, with 53 senators or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 349, "predictions_count": 898, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 887, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:52:17.677Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:32.888Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 956, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/2018-election-calendar/\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018\"target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"The Republican Party with 53 senators or more\" with an end date of 6 November 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:04.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 887, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:57.028+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:16.418+00:00"}, "name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 898, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 349, "published_at": "2018-02-14T16:29:26.937Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:53:04.895Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-14T10:00:04.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:04.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/434 | Outcome will be determined by the LIBOR rate published by the Wall Street Journal <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html"target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/358" target="_blank">the end of day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356" target="_blank">the European Central Bank's January decision with respect to the deposit rate</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "more than 1.00% but less than 1.25%" with an end date of 31 May 2017. On May 31, 2017, the 1-month LIBOR rate was 1.06% (http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 862, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than .75%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 434, "question_name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:21:17.668Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:56.108Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.562Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 863, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between .75% and 1.00%, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 434, "question_name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:19:22.213Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:56.481Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.585Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 864, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1.00% but less than 1.25% ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 434, "question_name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:19:48.436Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:56.919Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.609Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 865, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1.25% and 1.50%, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 434, "question_name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:20:47.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:57.512Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-31T17:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.680Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 866, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 451, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 434, "question_name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:20:18.014Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:57.790Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 483, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-03-19T18:40:05.516Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 72, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "6%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the LIBOR rate published by the Wall Street Journal <a href = \"http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/358\" target=\"_blank\">the end of day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017</a> or on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356\" target=\"_blank\">the European Central Bank's January decision with respect to the deposit rate</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nThis question was closed as \"more than 1.00% but less than 1.25%\" with an end date of 31 May 2017. On May 31, 2017, the 1-month LIBOR rate was 1.06% (http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-libor.html).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-05-31T06:59:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 434, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:27:13.985+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:26:03.933+00:00"}, "name": "What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 451, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 154, "published_at": "2017-03-14T16:17:13.798Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-06-01T16:21:17.775Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-05-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-03-14T10:00:08.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-03-14T17:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/528 | <b><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/s-p-lowers-china-s-rating-to-a-from-aa-says-outlook-stable" target="_blank">S&P Global Ratings downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating</a> by one notch on to A+ from AA-. This question closed as "a) Before 1 January 2018."</b>
Moody’s has downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time since 1989 citing lower growth rates and likely increases in debt (<a href = "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Chinas-rating-to-A1-from-Aa3-and-changes--PR_366139"target="_blank">Moody's</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/moodys-downgrades-china-rating-to-a1-from-aa3-with-stable-outlook.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://marketbusinessnews.com/chinas-credit-rating-downgraded-moodys-aa3-a1/159527"target="_blank">Market Business News</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-21T06:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:42:36.492Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1041, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 209, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 528, "question_name": "When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-21T17:47:20.178Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:01.530Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-21T06:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:42:36.534Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1042, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 209, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 528, "question_name": "When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-21T17:47:00.429Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:01.832Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-21T06:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:42:36.580Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1043, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 July 2018 and 31 December 2018, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 209, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 528, "question_name": "When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-21T17:46:39.262Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:02.084Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-21T06:59:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-14T16:42:36.620Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1044, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 January 2019", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 209, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 528, "question_name": "When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-21T17:46:19.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:02.372Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 214, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<b><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/s-p-lowers-china-s-rating-to-a-from-aa-says-outlook-stable\" target=\"_blank\">S&P Global Ratings downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating</a> by one notch on to A+ from AA-. This question closed as \"a) Before 1 January 2018.\"</b>\r\n\r\nMoody\u2019s has downgraded China\u2019s credit rating for the first time since 1989 citing lower growth rates and likely increases in debt (<a href = \"https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Chinas-rating-to-A1-from-Aa3-and-changes--PR_366139\"target=\"_blank\">Moody's</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/moodys-downgrades-china-rating-to-a1-from-aa3-with-stable-outlook.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"https://marketbusinessnews.com/chinas-credit-rating-downgraded-moodys-aa3-a1/159527\"target=\"_blank\">Market Business News</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 528, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:58.759+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:22.877+00:00"}, "name": "When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 209, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2017-07-14T16:42:36.819Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-21T17:47:20.326Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-20T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-14T10:00:35.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-14T17:00:35.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/102 | Sign up and enter your own forecast, to compete in <i>The Economist</i>'s World in 2016 Challenge!
<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Uganda's Yoweri Museveni is running for a fifth presidential term in an election scheduled for 18 February 2016, one of several elections in Africa next year that will test countries' commitments to democracy (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10500" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-uganda-politics-idUSKBN0TG1R620151127#3ReiU5RMz2cYbcdH.9" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/03/can-anyone-defeat-president-yoweri-museveni-in-uganda/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.elections.co.ug/new-vision/election/1407669/road-house-presidential-candidates" target ="_blank">New Vision</a>). If a runoff is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95-will-a-member-of-the-national-league-for-democracy-nld-take-office-as-president-of-myanmar-before-april-2016" target = "_blank">Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-18T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:28:15.673Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 166, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yoweri Museveni", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 473, "predictions_count": 879, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 102, "question_name": "Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-25T17:57:45.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:26.972Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-18T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:28:38.572Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 167, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Amama Mbabazi", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 473, "predictions_count": 879, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 102, "question_name": "Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-25T17:57:45.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:28.253Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-18T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:29:00.533Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 168, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Kizza Besigye", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 473, "predictions_count": 879, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 102, "question_name": "Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-25T17:57:45.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:29.361Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-18T22:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2015-12-22T15:29:26.042Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 169, "membership_id": 6, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 473, "predictions_count": 879, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 102, "question_name": "Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-25T17:57:45.888Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:30.708Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 894, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-12-22T18:29:08.594Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 57, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Sign up and enter your own forecast, to compete in <i>The Economist</i>'s World in 2016 Challenge! \r\n\r\n<img height=\"1\" width=\"1\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1\"/>Uganda's Yoweri Museveni is running for a fifth presidential term in an election scheduled for 18 February 2016, one of several elections in Africa next year that will test countries' commitments to democracy (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10500\" target = \"_blank\">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-uganda-politics-idUSKBN0TG1R620151127#3ReiU5RMz2cYbcdH.9\" target = \"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/03/can-anyone-defeat-president-yoweri-museveni-in-uganda/\" target = \"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"http://www.elections.co.ug/new-vision/election/1407669/road-house-presidential-candidates\" target =\"_blank\">New Vision</a>). If a runoff is required, the end date of the question will be extended.\r\n\r\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbcx4rQUYAAOKBR.png\">\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95-will-a-member-of-the-national-league-for-democracy-nld-take-office-as-president-of-myanmar-before-april-2016\" target = \"_blank\">Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-02-18T07:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 102, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:55:34.749+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:51:52.914+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 879, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 473, "published_at": "2015-12-22T15:31:21.092Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-25T17:57:45.895Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-02-17T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-12-22T10:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-12-22T18:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/652 | This question will be resolved using data reported by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Relevant data is available at <a href = "http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"target="_blank">FAO</a> in the 'FAO food price index' table. This question will be resolved based on initial values typically released the first week of the following month.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-02T04:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:26:50.911Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1355, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 191.3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 652, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:31.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.386Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-02T04:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:26:50.936Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1356, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 191.3 and 200.3, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 652, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:34.361Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.492Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-02T04:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:26:50.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1357, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 200.3 but less than 208.1", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 652, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:35.874Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.678Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-02T04:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:26:50.970Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1358, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 208.1 and 217.1, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 652, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:37.421Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:26.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-02T04:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:26:50.986Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1359, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 217.1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 57, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 652, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:29.581Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:27.004Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 128, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-19T01:52:11.727Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using data reported by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Relevant data is available at <a href = \"http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/\"target=\"_blank\">FAO</a> in the 'FAO food price index' table. This question will be resolved based on initial values typically released the first week of the following month.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-11-01T03:59:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 652, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:43.508+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:19.366+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 119, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 57, "published_at": "2017-10-18T14:42:12.888Z", "resolution_notes": ["Value: 202.8 - released 2-Nov\r\nhttp://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-13T20:06:37.442Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-18T09:00:26.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-18T16:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/46 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Bitcoin's increasing use presents both challenges and opportunties for traditional banking (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-analysis-bitcoin-startups-lure-quant-whizzes-from-wall-street-2015-8#ixzz3i9cT3QvI" target = "_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href = "http://fortune.com/2014/11/20/why-banks-fear-bitcoin/" target = "_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href = "http://www.coindesk.com/kpmg-bitcoin-threat-opportunity-retail-banks/" target = "_blank">CoinDesk</a>). The question will be resolved based on Blockchain's data for 7 June 2016 (<a href="https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=true&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=" target = "_blank">Blockchain</a>). This chart tracks the rolling average of the daily number of transactions over the previous 7 days. The question will be suspended on 31 May 2016 and will close when the final data for 7 June 2016 is released.
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11">FAQ</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-06-01T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:35:40.801Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 78, "membership_id": 6, "name": "More than 250,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 477, "predictions_count": 2244, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 46, "question_name": "What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-06-15T20:12:52.746Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:26.223Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-06-01T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:34:13.269Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 76, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Less than 125,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 477, "predictions_count": 2244, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 46, "question_name": "What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-06-15T20:13:07.775Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:24.065Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-06-01T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-28T11:35:20.750Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 77, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 477, "predictions_count": 2244, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 46, "question_name": "What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-06-15T20:13:23.316Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:25.314Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2434, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-03-10T01:55:12.312Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 84, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "66%", "description": "<img height=\"1\" width=\"1\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1\"/>Bitcoin's increasing use presents both challenges and opportunties for traditional banking (<a href=\"http://www.businessinsider.com/r-analysis-bitcoin-startups-lure-quant-whizzes-from-wall-street-2015-8#ixzz3i9cT3QvI\" target = \"_blank\">Business Insider</a>, <a href = \"http://fortune.com/2014/11/20/why-banks-fear-bitcoin/\" target = \"_blank\">Fortune</a>, <a href = \"http://www.coindesk.com/kpmg-bitcoin-threat-opportunity-retail-banks/\" target = \"_blank\">CoinDesk</a>). The question will be resolved based on Blockchain's data for 7 June 2016 (<a href=\"https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=true&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=\" target = \"_blank\">Blockchain</a>). This chart tracks the rolling average of the daily number of transactions over the previous 7 days. The question will be suspended on 31 May 2016 and will close when the final data for 7 June 2016 is released.\r\n\r\nThis question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11\">FAQ</a>.", "ends_at": "2016-06-01T17:10:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 46, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:52:02.711+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:46:43.853+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2244, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 477, "published_at": "2015-09-28T20:10:51.301Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-06-15T20:13:23.325Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-28T13:10:51.301-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-28T20:10:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/701 | Revisions to the "outlook" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36644934"target="_blank">downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote</a>, and <a href = "www.bbc.com/news/business-41369239"target="_blank">Moody's did the same in September 2017</a>. While S&P recently reaffirmed its AA rating, it cautioned that the risk of a disorderly Brexit may lead to a further downgrade (<a href = "https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-rating/sp-fitch-leave-uk-credit-rating-on-hold-but-warn-on-brexit-idUKKBN1CW2WZ"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-4ad4-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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This question closed as "no adjustment" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-08T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:24:38.864Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1499, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Up", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 615, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 701, "question_name": "Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:15:24.940Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:35.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-08T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:24:38.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1500, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Down", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 615, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 701, "question_name": "Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:17:13.102Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:36.375Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-08T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:24:38.916Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1501, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No Adjustment", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 615, "predictions_count": 1117, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 701, "question_name": "Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:19:04.969Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:37.363Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1141, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-23T21:41:23.360Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 250, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "20%", "description": "Revisions to the \"outlook\" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36644934\"target=\"_blank\">downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote</a>, and <a href = \"www.bbc.com/news/business-41369239\"target=\"_blank\">Moody's did the same in September 2017</a>. While S&P recently reaffirmed its AA rating, it cautioned that the risk of a disorderly Brexit may lead to a further downgrade (<a href = \"https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-rating/sp-fitch-leave-uk-credit-rating-on-hold-but-warn-on-brexit-idUKKBN1CW2WZ\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-4ad4-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b\"target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"no adjustment\" with an end date of 1 October 2018.\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-01T06:59:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 701, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:50.264+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:09.991+00:00"}, "name": "Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1117, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 615, "published_at": "2017-11-21T17:24:38.996Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:19:05.090Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:10.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:10.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/670 | Disputes over North Korea's nuclear and missile program have strained the relationship between the two allies (<a href = "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The last high-level Chinese visit to Pyongyang was made by a member of the Politburo Standing Committee in 2015 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-17/north-korea-said-to-snub-chinese-diplomats-as-tensions-mounted"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://beyondparallel.csis.org/china-dprk-high-level-visits-since-1953-2/"target="_blanK">Beyond Parallel</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
A member of the Chinese Politburo Standing Committee <a href = "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1118860.shtml"target="_blank">has visited NK</a>. This question closed as "Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive" with an end date of 8 September 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-09-08T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.689Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1403, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 February 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 361, "predictions_count": 1193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 670, "question_name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:03:10.377Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:29.842Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-09-08T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.731Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1404, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 361, "predictions_count": 1193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 670, "question_name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:03:26.925Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:29.967Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-09-08T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.764Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1405, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 361, "predictions_count": 1193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 670, "question_name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:04:14.719Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.087Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-09-08T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.801Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1406, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 361, "predictions_count": 1193, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 670, "question_name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:03:59.398Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.225Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-09-08T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.835Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1407, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 November 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 361, "predictions_count": 1193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 670, "question_name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:03:43.794Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:30.380Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1286, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Disputes over North Korea's nuclear and missile program have strained the relationship between the two allies (<a href = \"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship\"target=\"_blank\">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The last high-level Chinese visit to Pyongyang was made by a member of the Politburo Standing Committee in 2015 (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-17/north-korea-said-to-snub-chinese-diplomats-as-tensions-mounted\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"https://beyondparallel.csis.org/china-dprk-high-level-visits-since-1953-2/\"target=\"_blanK\">Beyond Parallel</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nA member of the Chinese Politburo Standing Committee <a href = \"http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1118860.shtml\"target=\"_blank\">has visited NK</a>. This question closed as \"Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive\" with an end date of 8 September 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-11-01T06:59:56.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 670, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:19.965+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:06.128+00:00"}, "name": "When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1193, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 361, "published_at": "2017-10-24T15:05:09.930Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-09-10T16:04:14.756Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-08T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-24T10:00:56.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-24T17:00:56.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.925Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/26 | Mets v. Royals!
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-02T04:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T14:01:07.178Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 44, "membership_id": 6, "name": "A team from the National League", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 451, "predictions_count": 847, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 26, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-02T23:14:37.649Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:04.067Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-02T04:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T14:00:47.992Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 43, "membership_id": 6, "name": " A team from the American League", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 451, "predictions_count": 847, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 26, "question_name": "Who will win the World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-02T23:14:37.649Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:03.725Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 960, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-09-08T20:27:31.730Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 54, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Mets v. Royals!\r\n", "ends_at": "2015-11-05T04:59:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 26, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:47:12.419+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:45:38.740+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the World Series?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 847, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 451, "published_at": "2015-09-07T14:02:50.381Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-11-02T23:14:37.719Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-11-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-08T13:00:19.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-08T20:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/475 | Outcome will be determined by the "Gallup Daily" Trump job approval rating (<a href = "http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx"target="_blank">Gallup</a>). Question will be suspended on 1 August 2017 and closed when the data are released the following day.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
According to Gallup, President Trump's approval rating on 1 August was 36%. This question closed as "b) Between 30% and 40%, inclusive", with an end date of 1 August 2017.
</hr>
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.355Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 939, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 30%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 523, "predictions_count": 1741, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 475, "question_name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:26:12.488Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:24.461Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.406Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 940, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 30% and 40%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 523, "predictions_count": 1741, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 475, "question_name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:25:05.018Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:24.633Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.452Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 941, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 40% but less than 50% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 523, "predictions_count": 1741, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 475, "question_name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:29:13.920Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:24.918Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.509Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 942, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 50% and 60%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 523, "predictions_count": 1741, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 475, "question_name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:28:13.940Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:25.191Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.543Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 943, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 60%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 523, "predictions_count": 1741, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 475, "question_name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:27:12.230Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:25.440Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1840, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-05-12T03:59:07.209Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 82, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the \"Gallup Daily\" Trump job approval rating (<a href = \"http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx\"target=\"_blank\">Gallup</a>). Question will be suspended on 1 August 2017 and closed when the data are released the following day.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nAccording to Gallup, President Trump's approval rating on 1 August was 36%. This question closed as \"b) Between 30% and 40%, inclusive\", with an end date of 1 August 2017.\r\n</hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-08-02T06:59:39.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 475, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:51.580+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:28:35.912+00:00"}, "name": "What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1741, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 523, "published_at": "2017-04-28T16:26:42.658Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-04T15:29:13.970Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-04-28T10:20:39.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-04-28T17:20:39.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/171 | This question was closed with the answer "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016 (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/).
<hr>
For information on the differences between the popular vote and the electoral vote see [<a href="http://www.diffen.com/difference/Electoral_Vote_vs_Popular_Vote" target="_blank">Diffen.com</a>]. Donald Trump has threatened to run as an independent candidate if he loses the Republican nomination (<a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/donald-trump-independent-bid-220170" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/03/30/472394248/why-donald-trump-reversed-his-pledge-to-support-the-gop-nominee" target="_blank">NPR</a>) and factions of the Republican party are rumored to be considering third-party options (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/politics/anti-donald-trump-republicans-call-for-a-third-party-option.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/doors-gop-consulting-independent-219859" target="_blank"> Politico</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81" target="_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T20:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2016-04-01T16:44:58.634Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 337, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 866, "predictions_count": 3490, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 171, "question_name": "Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-11T18:24:43.474Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:25.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T20:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2016-04-01T16:45:13.518Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 338, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 866, "predictions_count": 3490, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 171, "question_name": "Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-11T18:23:20.378Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:26.330Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T20:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2016-04-01T16:44:40.789Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 336, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 866, "predictions_count": 3490, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 171, "question_name": "Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-11T18:24:02.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:24.334Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 3806, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-11-04T18:28:27.350Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "This question was closed with the answer \"No\" with an end date of 8 November 2016 (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/).\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nFor information on the differences between the popular vote and the electoral vote see [<a href=\"http://www.diffen.com/difference/Electoral_Vote_vs_Popular_Vote\" target=\"_blank\">Diffen.com</a>]. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/776 | This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXSFUS"target="_blank">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:09.097Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1689, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 14.5", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 776, "question_name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:09:11.037Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:23.655Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:09.148Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1690, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 14.5 and 14.7, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 776, "question_name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:30.581Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:24.096Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:09.193Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1691, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 14.7 but less than 14.9", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 776, "question_name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:09:00.574Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:24.651Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:09.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1692, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 14.9 and 15.1, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 776, "question_name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:50.634Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:25.356Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:09.293Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1693, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 15.1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 776, "question_name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:40.195Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:26.372Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 85, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-29T19:23:02.415Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXSFUS\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-11T04:59:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 776, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:13.187+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:49.331+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the South African Rand to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 85, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:13:47.232Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXSFUS\r\n13.5675"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:09:11.284Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/560 | For the purposes of this question, the EU Delegation to Libya will count. The EU is actively monitoring the Libyan security situation and some countries are considering opening their embassies (<a href = "https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/uns-libya-representative-urges-eu-countries-to-reopen-tripoli-embassies/"target="_blank">Euractiv</a>, <a href = "https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/1447/Libya%20and%20the%20EU"target="_blank">European External Action Service</a>, <a href = "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/01/30/508428/Libya-Turkey-embassy-Italy-Tripoli-Gaddafi"target="_blank">Press TV</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/10/politics/trump-us-military-libya-strategy/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "a) 0" with an end date of 1 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-15T14:33:17.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1155, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 263, "predictions_count": 899, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 560, "question_name": "Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-04T18:17:31.323Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:09.077Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-15T14:33:18.010Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1156, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1-2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 263, "predictions_count": 899, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 560, "question_name": "Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-04T18:17:54.754Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:09.871Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-15T14:33:18.074Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1157, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3-4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 263, "predictions_count": 899, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 560, "question_name": "Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-04T18:17:43.136Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:10.419Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-01T17:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-15T14:33:18.133Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1158, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "more than 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 263, "predictions_count": 899, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 560, "question_name": "Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-04T18:17:19.749Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:10.652Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 947, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-24T20:34:06.397Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 249, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "For the purposes of this question, the EU Delegation to Libya will count. The EU is actively monitoring the Libyan security situation and some countries are considering opening their embassies (<a href = \"https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/uns-libya-representative-urges-eu-countries-to-reopen-tripoli-embassies/\"target=\"_blank\">Euractiv</a>, <a href = \"https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/1447/Libya%20and%20the%20EU\"target=\"_blank\">European External Action Service</a>, <a href = \"http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/01/30/508428/Libya-Turkey-embassy-Italy-Tripoli-Gaddafi\"target=\"_blank\">Press TV</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/10/politics/trump-us-military-libya-strategy/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"a) 0\" with an end date of 1 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-01T06:59:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 560, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:31.219+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:32.686+00:00"}, "name": "Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 899, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 263, "published_at": "2017-08-15T14:33:18.388Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-04T18:17:54.780Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-15T10:00:44.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-15T17:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1105 | Current ECB President Mario Draghi's term ends this fall (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/euroturns20" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/draghi-will-be-passing-on-baton-with-ecb-in-populist-crosshairs" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b0714192-047a-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1" target="_blank">The Financial Times</a>). The ECB president is appointed by the European Council, acting by a qualified majority (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/decisions/eb/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">The European Central Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/role-nominations-appointment/" target="_blank">The European Council</a>).<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed "No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019" with a closing date of 1 October 2019.</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.526Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2514, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone from Finland", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 306, "predictions_count": 685, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1105, "question_name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:11:31.305Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:51.788Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.555Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", 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"question_id": 1105, "question_name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:07:48.110Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:06:01.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.595Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2517, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone from Ireland", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 306, "predictions_count": 685, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1105, "question_name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:09:37.882Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:06:07.235Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.612Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2518, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 306, "predictions_count": 685, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1105, "question_name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:08:45.825Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:06:10.914Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-10-01T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.628Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2519, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 306, "predictions_count": 685, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1105, "question_name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:06:46.555Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:06:12.298Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 759, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-08-13T01:40:59.075Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 49, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "80%", "description": "Current ECB President Mario Draghi's term ends this fall (<a href=\"https://worldin2019.economist.com/euroturns20\" target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/draghi-will-be-passing-on-baton-with-ecb-in-populist-crosshairs\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b0714192-047a-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" target=\"_blank\">The Financial Times</a>). The ECB president is appointed by the European Council, acting by a qualified majority (<a href=\"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/decisions/eb/html/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">The European Central Bank</a>, <a href=\"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/role-nominations-appointment/\" target=\"_blank\">The European Council</a>).<p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a>.</p><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed \"No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019\" with a closing date of 1 October 2019.</p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span> ", "ends_at": "2019-10-01T06:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1105, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:02:40.757+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:59:48.710+00:00"}, "name": "Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 685, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 306, "published_at": "2019-01-25T16:37:05.689Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-10-04T14:11:31.370Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-25T10:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-25T18:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.980Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/702 | After the <a href = "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/448834/saudi-arabias-king-names-son-crown-prince"target="_blank">appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia</a>, <a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-carries-out-major-purge-cementing-crown-princes-power/a-41241758"target="_blank">recent developments</a> have <a href = "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-remove-opponents-national-guard.html"target="_balnk">raised questions</a> concerning the <a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/the-saudi-crown-prince-is-risking-everything-on-three-major-experiments/545240/"target="_blank">future</a> of the kingdom.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:29:31.494Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1502, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 836, "predictions_count": 1911, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 702, "question_name": "Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:10:40.812Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:37.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:29:31.522Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1503, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 836, "predictions_count": 1911, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 702, "question_name": "Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:10:13.812Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:38.118Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:29:31.549Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1504, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 836, "predictions_count": 1911, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 702, "question_name": "Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:09:50.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:38.762Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1976, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-06T01:11:45.545Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 268, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "After the <a href = \"http://www.nationalreview.com/article/448834/saudi-arabias-king-names-son-crown-prince\"target=\"_blank\">appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia</a>, <a href = \"http://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-carries-out-major-purge-cementing-crown-princes-power/a-41241758\"target=\"_blank\">recent developments</a> have <a href = \"https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-remove-opponents-national-guard.html\"target=\"_balnk\">raised questions</a> concerning the <a href = \"https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/the-saudi-crown-prince-is-risking-everything-on-three-major-experiments/545240/\"target=\"_blank\">future</a> of the kingdom.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"no\" with an end date of 1 October 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-01T06:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 702, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:46:13.867+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:21.543+00:00"}, "name": "Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1911, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 836, "published_at": "2017-11-21T17:29:31.645Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T04:10:40.830Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:28.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
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