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True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2201 |
<p>Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (<a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a" target="_blank">News.com.au</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/a-far-flung-taiwan-island-risks-triggering-a-u-s-china-clash" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization? | 2021-11-19 | [["2021-11-20", 0.11], ["2021-11-20", 0.06], ["2021-11-20", 0.07], ["2021-11-20", 0.0525], ["2021-11-20", 0.074], ["2021-11-20", 0.06166666666666667], ["2021-11-20", 0.06], ["2021-11-20", 0.05142857142857143], ["2021-11-20", 0.045], ["2021-11-20", 0.04], ["2021-11-20", 0.07], ["2021-11-20", 0.069], ["2021-11-21", 0.06], ["2021-11-21", 0.06], ["2021-11-21", 0.049], ["2021-11-21", 0.049], ["2021-11-21", 0.04], ["2021-11-22", 0.04], ["2021-11-22", 0.055], ["2021-11-22", 0.075], ["2021-11-22", 0.051], ["2021-11-22", 0.071], ["2021-11-23", 0.076], ["2021-11-23", 0.08], ["2021-11-24", 0.145], ["2021-11-24", 0.15], ["2021-11-25", 0.1409090909090909], ["2021-11-25", 0.21272727272727274], ["2021-11-25", 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["2022-12-31", 0.0838], ["2023-01-01", 0.0827], ["2023-01-01", 0.0827], ["2023-01-01", 0.0827]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_tactics", "https://www.ibtimes.com/these-outlying-taiwanese-islands-are-risk-china-masses-forces-around-taiwan-3595860", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=Fiery+Cross+Reef", "https://latitude.to/articles-by-country/cn/china/22398/mischief-reef", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strategy", "https://latitude.to/articles-by-country/cn/china/47741/subi-reef", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=Mischief+Reef", "https://www.oceangrafix.com/search/byregion/NGA/Eastern-Asia-South-Eastern-Russia-Philippines", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/23/taiwan-invasion-china-us-military-war-game/", "https://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/13684924", "https://www.ndtv.com/topic/china-attacks-taiwan", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2169-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-flying-a-military-aircraft-over-the-territory-of-and-or-the-territorial-waters-surrounding-the-main-island-of-taiwan-without-its-permission-before-1-september-2022", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/taiwan-outlines-plans-to-counter-china-s-gray-zone-threats", "https://www.lombardodier.com/contents/corporate-news/investment-insights/2022/august/us-china-tensions-over-taiwan-ou.html", "https://www.barrons.com/news/sizing-up-taiwan-01658383509", "https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/world-news/how-china-could-hit-back-over-nancy-pelosis-taiwan-visit", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=Pratas+Island+Dongsha", "https://www.oceangrafix.com/chart/detail/91010-Luzon-Strait-China-Taiwan-Philippines-Japan", "https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/china-fully-militarizes-key-south-china-sea-features/", "https://www.ibtimes.com/these-outlying-taiwanese-islands-are-risk-china-masses-forces-around-taiwan-3595860?utm_source=Public&utm_medium=Feed&utm_campaign=Distribution", "https://www.oceangrafix.com/chart/detail/94004-Taiwan-Strait-China-East-Coast", "https://www.ft.com/content/55d86391-2d05-4eb4-869c-83a7878b8942", "https://www.oceangrafix.com/chart/detail/93006-Macau-to-Taiwan-Strait", "https://latitude.to/articles-by-country/tw/taiwan/18970/pratas-islands", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=Subi+Reef"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2241 |
<p>Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59880166" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/588318-kazakhstan-government-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-07-07 | Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022? | 2022-01-07 | [["2022-01-07", 0.55], ["2022-01-07", 0.06], ["2022-01-07", 0.06], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.06], ["2022-01-07", 0.075], ["2022-01-07", 0.075], ["2022-01-07", 0.05], ["2022-01-07", 0.05], ["2022-01-07", 0.075], ["2022-01-08", 0.05], ["2022-01-08", 0.075], ["2022-01-08", 0.075], ["2022-01-08", 0.1], ["2022-01-08", 0.1], ["2022-01-08", 0.1], ["2022-01-08", 0.1], ["2022-01-08", 0.1], ["2022-01-08", 0.09], ["2022-01-08", 0.05], ["2022-01-08", 0.07], ["2022-01-08", 0.09], ["2022-01-08", 0.09], ["2022-01-09", 0.07], ["2022-01-09", 0.07], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.065], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-09", 0.05], ["2022-01-10", 0.05], ["2022-01-10", 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["https://astanatimes.com/2022/02/president-tokayev-to-deliver-address-to-nation-in-march-announce-political-reforms/", "https://t.me/tengrinews/9011", "https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1486781599765127175", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/07/kassym-jomart-tokayev-veteran-kazakh-diplomat-faces-grave-crisis", "https://t.me/tengrinews/9058", "https://nationalinterest.org/feature/dust-settles-kazakhstan-path-forward-revealed-200769", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/10/kazakh-leader-declares-attempted-coup-detat-over", "https://astanatimes.com/2022/01/investigation-ongoing-police-officers-capture-more-illegal-weapons-after-mass-riots-video/", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/kazakh-russian-relations-in-the-context-of-the-war-in-ukraine/", "https://t.me/tengrinews/9210", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/tokayev-outlines-new-kazakhstan-in-state-of-the-nation-address/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/28/kazakh-president-becomes-party-chair-after-sidelining-nazarbayev", "https://t.me/OSINTUkraine/798", "https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/kazakhstan-protests-russia-joanna-lillis/", "https://astanatimes.com/2022/03/president-tokayev-signs-nationwide-action-plan-to-implement-announced-political-reforms/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1417209", "https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-russia-led-troops-to-start-leaving-in-2-days/a-60384521", "https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-unrest-nazarbaev-relatives-fired/31657888.html", "https://www.dw.com/en/former-kazakh-dictator-nursultan-nazarbayev-denies-he-fled-amid-unrest/a-60468814", "https://112.international/politics/government-of-kazakhstan-decides-to-limit-prices-for-fuel-food-communal-services-68373.html", "https://astanatimes.com/2022/01/kazakhstan-ends-state-of-emergency-counter-terrorist-operation-continues/", "https://aje.io/2waaks", "https://en.as.com/en/2022/02/24/latest_news/1645729870_894320.html", "https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2022-02-17/kazakh-ex-dictator-used-uk-company-to-help-protect-8-billion-business-empire", "https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-no-end-in-sight-for-protests-in-western-region"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2264 |
<p>Digital streaming service Spotify has faced criticism over things said by Joe Rogan on his popular podcast (<a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/593189-neil-young-urges-spotify-employees-to-quit-over-joe-rogan" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/07/1078774392/spotifys-ceo-says-the-company-isnt-ready-to-part-ways-with-joe-rogan" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/entertainment/rumble-joe-rogan-spotify" target="_blank">FOX Business</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52736364" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A change to the name of the podcast alone would be immaterial. The removal of individual episodes from Spotify would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-08-02 | Will new episodes of Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, cease to be carried on Spotify before 2 August 2022? | 2022-02-11 | [["2022-02-11", 0.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.06], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.095], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.095], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.095], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.095], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-11", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.095], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.1], ["2022-02-12", 0.095], ["2022-02-12", 0.09], ["2022-02-12", 0.09], ["2022-02-12", 0.09], ["2022-02-12", 0.07], ["2022-02-12", 0.065], ["2022-02-12", 0.065], ["2022-02-12", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.055], ["2022-02-13", 0.06], ["2022-02-13", 0.055], ["2022-02-13", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.05], ["2022-02-13", 0.055], ["2022-02-13", 0.06], ["2022-02-13", 0.07], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.08], ["2022-02-13", 0.07], ["2022-02-13", 0.06], ["2022-02-13", 0.055], ["2022-02-14", 0.06], ["2022-02-14", 0.07], ["2022-02-14", 0.06], ["2022-02-14", 0.07], ["2022-02-14", 0.06], ["2022-02-14", 0.055], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], ["2022-02-14", 0.05], 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"https://www.npr.org/2022/02/07/1078774392/spotifys-ceo-says-the-company-isnt-ready-to-part-ways-with-joe-rogan?t=1644910396163", "https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52736364", "https://www.engadget.com/spotify-ceo-staff-apology-joe-rogan-144215417.html", "https://www.thewrap.com/spotify-deletes-joe-rogan-podcast-episodes/>", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAi0l5iOIeo", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10495871/Numbers-people-visiting-Spotify-page-cancel-membership-soars-200-amid-Joe-Rogan-saga.html", "https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1478059547688374281", "https://youtu.be/7eAWvynFla0", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXupo-FHFgc", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/podcasts/the-daily/joe-rogan-spotify.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2435 |
<p>As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (<a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/graphic-reading-the-market-tea-leaves-for-global-recession-risks-0" target="_blank">NASDAQ</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/us-junk-bond-spreads-top-232511288.html" target="_blank">Yahoo!</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high_yield_bond.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For 29 June 2022, the spread was 5.62%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-01 | Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022? | 2022-07-01 | [["2022-07-01", 0.99], ["2022-07-01", 0.52], ["2022-07-01", 0.6633333333333333], ["2022-07-01", 0.54], ["2022-07-01", 0.62], ["2022-07-01", 0.5333333333333333], ["2022-07-01", 0.5742857142857143], ["2022-07-02", 0.60875], ["2022-07-02", 0.5522222222222222], ["2022-07-02", 0.497], ["2022-07-02", 0.498], ["2022-07-02", 0.563], ["2022-07-02", 0.568], ["2022-07-02", 0.58], ["2022-07-03", 0.583], ["2022-07-03", 0.589], ["2022-07-03", 0.679], ["2022-07-03", 0.664], ["2022-07-03", 0.667], ["2022-07-03", 0.765], ["2022-07-04", 0.76], ["2022-07-04", 0.77], ["2022-07-06", 0.77], ["2022-07-06", 0.761], ["2022-07-06", 0.76], ["2022-07-07", 0.695], ["2022-07-07", 0.695], ["2022-07-07", 0.715], ["2022-07-08", 0.6772727272727272], ["2022-07-08", 0.7363636363636363], ["2022-07-08", 0.7325], ["2022-07-08", 0.7291666666666666], ["2022-07-08", 0.7283333333333334], ["2022-07-10", 0.6675], ["2022-07-10", 0.6691666666666667], ["2022-07-10", 0.665], ["2022-07-10", 0.6608333333333334], ["2022-07-10", 0.6484615384615384], ["2022-07-10", 0.6753846153846154], ["2022-07-11", 0.6715384615384615], ["2022-07-11", 0.6638461538461539], ["2022-07-12", 0.6061538461538462], ["2022-07-13", 0.6030769230769231], ["2022-07-13", 0.6530769230769231], ["2022-07-13", 0.6171428571428571], ["2022-07-14", 0.6314285714285715], ["2022-07-15", 0.6385714285714286], ["2022-07-15", 0.6457142857142857], ["2022-07-15", 0.6385714285714286], ["2022-07-15", 0.6385714285714286], ["2022-07-17", 0.6214285714285714], ["2022-07-18", 0.6221428571428571], ["2022-07-18", 0.615], ["2022-07-18", 0.56], ["2022-07-18", 0.536], ["2022-07-18", 0.532], ["2022-07-19", 0.5086666666666667], ["2022-07-20", 0.5033333333333333], ["2022-07-20", 0.49866666666666665], ["2022-07-20", 0.4786666666666667], ["2022-07-20", 0.43933333333333335], ["2022-07-20", 0.43533333333333335], ["2022-07-20", 0.4425], ["2022-07-20", 0.46125], ["2022-07-21", 0.4175], ["2022-07-21", 0.410625], ["2022-07-21", 0.40875], ["2022-07-21", 0.409375], ["2022-07-21", 0.40875], ["2022-07-21", 0.39625], ["2022-07-21", 0.386875], ["2022-07-22", 0.37125], ["2022-07-22", 0.368125], ["2022-07-22", 0.363125], ["2022-07-22", 0.366875], ["2022-07-22", 0.3675], ["2022-07-23", 0.36625], ["2022-07-23", 0.365625], ["2022-07-23", 0.365], ["2022-07-23", 0.365625], ["2022-07-23", 0.371875], ["2022-07-23", 0.36875], ["2022-07-24", 0.4], ["2022-07-24", 0.40125], ["2022-07-24", 0.395], ["2022-07-24", 0.3876470588235294], ["2022-07-24", 0.3870588235294118], ["2022-07-24", 0.3847058823529412], ["2022-07-25", 0.38294117647058823], ["2022-07-25", 0.3458823529411765], ["2022-07-25", 0.3382352941176471], ["2022-07-25", 0.3735294117647059], ["2022-07-25", 0.37], ["2022-07-25", 0.34058823529411764], ["2022-07-25", 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"https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf", "https://www.lordabbett.com/en-us/financial-advisor/insights/markets-and-economy/a-powerful-trend-that-could-support-u-s--high-yield-in-2022.html", "https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-draghi-5star-movement-italy-on-the-brink-as-government-faces-collapse/", "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-MOVE/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1501602", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1481260", "https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/what-s-driving-high-yield/01022337380"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2705 |
<p>Fears are growing that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/will-putin-force-belarus-to-join-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/satellite-images-russia-buildup-belarus/32121143.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/08/russia-belarus-extend-military-drills-fears-new-push-ukraine" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-07 | Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 7 April 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-01-13 | [["2023-01-13", 0.2], ["2023-01-13", 0.15], ["2023-01-13", 0.14], ["2023-01-13", 0.2175], ["2023-01-13", 0.205], ["2023-01-13", 0.164], ["2023-01-13", 0.1733], ["2023-01-13", 0.1829], ["2023-01-13", 0.1613], ["2023-01-13", 0.1444], ["2023-01-13", 0.145], ["2023-01-13", 0.1318], ["2023-01-13", 0.125], ["2023-01-13", 0.1292], ["2023-01-13", 0.125], ["2023-01-13", 0.1192], ["2023-01-13", 0.1107], ["2023-01-14", 0.136], ["2023-01-14", 0.1525], ["2023-01-14", 0.1518], ["2023-01-14", 0.1512], ["2023-01-14", 0.1811], ["2023-01-14", 0.2242], ["2023-01-14", 0.2155], ["2023-01-14", 0.2052], ["2023-01-14", 0.2014], ["2023-01-14", 0.1939], ["2023-01-14", 0.1863], ["2023-01-14", 0.1888], ["2023-01-14", 0.188], 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0.0138], ["2023-04-04", 0.0138], ["2023-04-04", 0.0127], ["2023-04-04", 0.012], ["2023-04-04", 0.0117], ["2023-04-05", 0.0107], ["2023-04-05", 0.0104], ["2023-04-05", 0.0104], ["2023-04-06", 0.0104], ["2023-04-07", 0.0104], ["2023-04-07", 0.0093], ["2023-04-07", 0.0093]] | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/12/5/does-russia-have-enough-money-for-war", "https://www.rferl.org/a/satellite-images-russia-buildup-belarus/32121143.html", "https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-warns-russia-amassed-troops-164448953.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-announces-military-drills-with-russia-near-ukraine-border-2021-11-29/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-warns-russia-troops-imminent-offensive-feb-24-putin-invasion-rcna68751", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-belarus-614236f44648d7b80f7698c133131a7e", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine-bryansk-incursion.html?action=click&algo=bandit-all-surfaces-variants-shadow-lda-unique-diversify-time-cutoff-30&alpha=0.05&block=trending_recirc&fellback=false&imp_id=287387360&impression_id=5e7c2328-bac9-11ed-a6e7-6316045ea34f&index=0&pgtype=Article&pool=pool%2F91fcf81c-4fb0-49ff-bd57-a24647c85ea1", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-1-2023", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-new-theory-victory", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/chornobyl/324301/december-weather/324301?year=", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2023", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2023", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/27/belarus-anti-war-partisans-russian-plane-drones-machulishchy-damage-claim", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-pursuing-silent-mobilization-as-war-proves-unpopular-in-russia-isw/ar-AA179wIr", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-forces-soledar-ukraine-pyrrhic-victory-trap/32223523.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-intelligence-estimates-that-6-000-russian-military-personnel-are-in-belarus/ar-AA16IyrJ?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=09034a2620e148cd8e81fdcc78623ea2", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-russians-endure-deadliest-day-german-minister-in-kyiv-announces-tank-supplies/ar-AA17dRhf?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=c602fb5bc26241f9a144689c7b7be4e1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine-bryansk-incursion.html?action=click&algo=bandit-all-surfaces-variants-shadow-lda-unique-diversify-time-cutoff-30&alpha=0.05&block=trending_recirc&fellback=false&imp_id=287387360&impression_id=5e7c2328-bac9-11ed-a6e7-6316045ea34f&index=0&pgtype=Article&pool=pool%2F91fcf81c-4fb0-49ff-bd57-a24647c85ea1&region=footer&req_id=873649441&shadow_vec_sim=0.4561414415115128&surface=eos-most-popular-story&variant=0_pers_bandit_diversified", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-belarus-renewed-offensive-war-invasion-border-rcna64858", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2023", "https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-russia-ukraine-war-conscripts-analysis/32244649.html", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-25-2023"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-08-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1649 | <p>In early May 2020, Germany's top court ruled that the Bundesbank must stop buying government bonds under the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) and gave the ECB three months to make changes, otherwise the bank would be barred from further participation (<a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/07/germanys-highest-court-takes-issue-with-the-european-central-bank" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-germany/bundesbank-must-stop-buying-govt-bonds-if-ecb-cant-prove-need-court-idUSL8N2CM5J2" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2020/05/rs20200505_2bvr085915en.html" target="_blank">German Federal Constitutional Court</a>). A partial bar would count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | 2020-08-29 | Before 29 August 2020, will the German Bundesbank be barred from participating in the European Central Bank's (ECB's) PSPP quantitative easing program? | 2020-06-05 | [["2020-06-05", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.25], ["2020-06-05", 0.35], ["2020-06-05", 0.25], ["2020-06-05", 0.25], ["2020-06-05", 0.25], ["2020-06-05", 0.2], ["2020-06-05", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.11], ["2020-06-05", 0.07], ["2020-06-05", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.035], ["2020-06-06", 0.05], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.035], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.05], ["2020-06-06", 0.05], ["2020-06-06", 0.05], ["2020-06-06", 0.045], ["2020-06-06", 0.125], ["2020-06-07", 0.04], ["2020-06-07", 0.075], ["2020-06-07", 0.11], ["2020-06-07", 0.1], ["2020-06-07", 0.05], ["2020-06-07", 0.04], ["2020-06-07", 0.04], ["2020-06-07", 0.02], ["2020-06-07", 0.02], ["2020-06-07", 0.02], ["2020-06-08", 0.02], 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True | 2021-06-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796 |
<p>In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (<a href="http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf" target="_blank">Third Circuit Court of Appeals</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-17 | In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? | 2020-09-25 | [["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.3], ["2020-09-25", 0.6], ["2020-09-25", 0.675], ["2020-09-25", 0.55], ["2020-09-25", 0.6], ["2020-09-25", 0.7], ["2020-09-25", 0.6], ["2020-09-25", 0.55], ["2020-09-25", 0.6], ["2020-09-25", 0.595], ["2020-09-25", 0.7], ["2020-09-26", 0.695], ["2020-09-26", 0.545], ["2020-09-26", 0.695], ["2020-09-26", 0.695], ["2020-09-26", 0.545], ["2020-09-26", 0.665], ["2020-09-26", 0.85], ["2020-09-26", 0.665], ["2020-09-26", 0.665], ["2020-09-27", 0.62], ["2020-09-27", 0.5], ["2020-09-27", 0.525], ["2020-09-27", 0.525], ["2020-09-27", 0.525], ["2020-09-27", 0.525], ["2020-09-27", 0.525], ["2020-09-27", 0.54], ["2020-09-27", 0.54], ["2020-09-28", 0.55], ["2020-09-28", 0.55], ["2020-09-28", 0.55], 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["https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-123_g3bi.pdf", "https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Nhi2LddD55G9fYUNPVv7n?si=Q4PU6MCjSICvKWsnBWZQQA", "https://twitter.com/KimberlyRobinsn/status/1405531358630318094"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-06-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2295 |
<p>The 2022 French Open is scheduled for 16 May through 5 June 2022 (<a href="https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/#" target="_blank">French Open</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-05 | Will Rafael Nadal win the 2022 Men's French Open? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.53], ["2022-03-15", 0.53], ["2022-03-15", 0.53], ["2022-03-15", 0.55], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.57], ["2022-03-16", 0.57], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-17", 0.59], ["2022-03-17", 0.59], ["2022-03-17", 0.595], ["2022-03-17", 0.595], ["2022-03-17", 0.59], ["2022-03-17", 0.59], ["2022-03-17", 0.595], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], 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"https://au.sports.yahoo.com/tennis-2022-disbelief-rafa-nadal-drama-madrid-open-213447253.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7gjr0m7GR8", "https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-alcaraz-madrid-2022-friday", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/tennis/rafael-nadal-says-injuries-leave-him-in-pain-every-single-day/ar-AAWZBX2", "https://www.google.de/search?q=Madrid+Open", "https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/roland-garros/2022/rafael-nadal-opens-quest-for-french-open-title-no.-14-with-routine-win-over-jordan-thompson-in-first_sto8936907/story.shtml", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu8xxzhMZ_Y", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/06/tennis/rafael-nadal-suffering-chronic-injury-spt-intl/index.html", "https://www.cbssports.com/tennis/news/2022-french-open-mens-semifinal-odds-predictions-nadal-vs-zverev-picks-bets-from-proven-tennis-expert/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/sports/tennis/nadal-italian-open-shapovalov.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pa5nqYXEnY", "https://firstsportz.com/tennis-news-what-an-illusion-rafael-nadal-ecstatic-after-having-his-first-practice-session-on-clay/", "https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/roland-garros/2022/zinedine-zidane-backs-rafael-nadal-to-win-it-all-at-the-french-open-despite-younger-talent-being-pre_sto8953589/story-amp.shtml", "https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/113471/diego-schwartzman-gives-thoughts-on-rafael-nadal-s-french-open-title-chances/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj718A7_s4A", "https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1597504/Rafael-Nadal-steps-on-court-Spaniard-injury-update-tennis-news", "https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current/roland-garros/520/draws", "https://www.eurosport.co.uk/tennis/roland-garros/2022/rafael-nadal-shows-few-signs-of-injury-scare-as-he-practices-at-french-open-in-front-of-huge-crowd_sto8930282/story.shtml", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_French_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_singles#Finals"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2599 |
<p>The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-12-28/cdc-omicron-overtook-delta-as-dominant-variant" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/06/bq11-omicron-variants-splintering-covid-next-phase/" target="_blank">STAT</a>, <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/6/23391007/covid-19-variant-winter-surge-fauci" target="_blank">Deseret News</a>). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions" target="_blank">https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions</a>. For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 15 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 1 January 2023</span>: If the CDC reports a variant as being a subvariant of Omicron, then later ceases to designate that same variant as a subvariant of Omicron, that variant would not count as a variant other than Omicron for the purposes of this question.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-16 | Before 16 April 2023, will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Omicron represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US? | 2022-10-27 | [["2022-10-28", 0.0], ["2022-10-28", 0.0], ["2022-10-28", 0.1933], ["2022-10-28", 0.145], ["2022-10-28", 0.136], ["2022-10-28", 0.2467], ["2022-10-28", 0.2257], ["2022-10-29", 0.2138], ["2022-10-29", 0.1956], ["2022-10-29", 0.1922], ["2022-10-29", 0.2044], ["2022-10-29", 0.1944], ["2022-10-29", 0.1956], ["2022-10-29", 0.226], ["2022-10-29", 0.2418], ["2022-10-29", 0.21], ["2022-10-29", 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0.1022], ["2023-04-10", 0.1123], ["2023-04-10", 0.1119], ["2023-04-10", 0.1119], ["2023-04-10", 0.1117], ["2023-04-10", 0.1117], ["2023-04-11", 0.1068], ["2023-04-11", 0.0955], ["2023-04-11", 0.0954], ["2023-04-11", 0.0882], ["2023-04-11", 0.0879], ["2023-04-11", 0.087], ["2023-04-11", 0.087], ["2023-04-12", 0.087], ["2023-04-12", 0.086], ["2023-04-12", 0.0844], ["2023-04-12", 0.084], ["2023-04-13", 0.0828], ["2023-04-13", 0.0828], ["2023-04-13", 0.0828], ["2023-04-14", 0.074], ["2023-04-14", 0.074]] | ["https://twitter.com/AndrewEwing11/status/1586500342841475072", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/could-new-omicron-variant-xbb15-fuel-further-covid-infections", "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid-variant-xbb-1-5-cdc-tracking-us-cases/", "https://covariants.org/per-country?country=USA", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/covid-what-we-know-about-new-omicron-variant-bf-7-196323", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2022/12/07/fauci-covid-wave-of-infections-new-variants-china-easing-zero-covid/amp/", "https://www.wired.com/story/kraken-covid-variant-xbb15/", "https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern", "https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2790595", "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00510-y;", "https://www.science.org/content/article/omicron-rages-scientists-have-no-idea-what-comes-next", "https://www.who.int/news/item/27-10-2022-tag-ve-statement-on-omicron-sublineages-bq.1-and-xbb", "https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/06/bq11-omicron-variants-splintering-covid-next-phase/", "https://www.fda.gov/food/whole-genome-sequencing-wgs-program/wastewater-surveillance-sars-cov-2-variants", "https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.12255", "https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global/6m", "https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/956611", "https://covariants.org/per-country?country=China", "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00210-7;", "https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-new-variant-alert", "https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions", "https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_of_opposites#Coincidentia_oppositorum", "https://news.abplive.com/news/world/china-omicron-likely-to-infect-60-of-population-in-next-3-months-estimates-epidemiologist-1570692"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417 |
<p>Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">IPE</a>, <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">El Universal</a> [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.<br></p><p class="MsoNormal">Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1411, which closes in 2021 (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411" target="_blank">Question #1411</a>). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;line-height: 0;vertical-align: baseline;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118);">ask us for help</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-02 | Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? | 2019-12-11 | [["2019-12-11", 0.45], ["2019-12-11", 0.335], ["2019-12-12", 0.45], ["2019-12-12", 0.335], ["2019-12-12", 0.22], ["2019-12-12", 0.22], ["2019-12-12", 0.22], ["2019-12-12", 0.235], ["2019-12-13", 0.235], ["2019-12-13", 0.185], ["2019-12-13", 0.15], ["2019-12-13", 0.15], ["2019-12-13", 0.185], ["2019-12-14", 0.185], ["2019-12-14", 0.22], ["2019-12-15", 0.22], ["2019-12-15", 0.235], ["2019-12-16", 0.235], ["2019-12-16", 0.235], ["2019-12-17", 0.2], ["2019-12-18", 0.135], ["2019-12-18", 0.135], ["2019-12-18", 0.125], ["2019-12-18", 0.15], ["2019-12-19", 0.15], ["2019-12-20", 0.15], ["2019-12-21", 0.125], ["2019-12-22", 0.125], ["2019-12-22", 0.125], ["2019-12-23", 0.125], ["2019-12-24", 0.125], ["2019-12-27", 0.1], ["2019-12-28", 0.1], ["2019-12-28", 0.1], ["2019-12-29", 0.1], ["2019-12-29", 0.1], ["2019-12-30", 0.1], ["2019-12-30", 0.125], ["2020-01-02", 0.125], ["2020-01-03", 0.15], ["2020-01-03", 0.15], ["2020-01-04", 0.15], ["2020-01-08", 0.15], ["2020-01-08", 0.15], ["2020-01-11", 0.15], ["2020-01-11", 0.12], ["2020-01-12", 0.07], ["2020-01-13", 0.12], ["2020-01-13", 0.07], ["2020-01-14", 0.065], ["2020-01-14", 0.04], ["2020-01-14", 0.04], ["2020-01-14", 0.04], ["2020-01-15", 0.04], ["2020-01-15", 0.03], ["2020-01-15", 0.03], ["2020-01-15", 0.01], ["2020-01-15", 0.01], ["2020-01-15", 0.01], ["2020-01-19", 0.01], ["2020-01-19", 0.01], ["2020-01-19", 0.01], ["2020-01-19", 0.01], ["2020-01-21", 0.015], ["2020-01-22", 0.015], ["2020-01-24", 0.015], ["2020-01-25", 0.015], ["2020-01-28", 0.015], ["2020-01-29", 0.01], ["2020-01-30", 0.01], ["2020-02-02", 0.01], ["2020-02-04", 0.01], ["2020-02-04", 0.01], ["2020-02-06", 0.01], ["2020-02-08", 0.01], ["2020-02-13", 0.01], ["2020-02-15", 0.01], ["2020-02-15", 0.01], ["2020-02-15", 0.01], ["2020-02-15", 0.01], ["2020-02-16", 0.01], ["2020-02-19", 0.01], ["2020-02-19", 0.01], ["2020-02-19", 0.015], ["2020-02-20", 0.02], ["2020-02-20", 0.015], ["2020-02-20", 0.015], ["2020-02-22", 0.02], ["2020-02-25", 0.02], ["2020-02-25", 0.02], ["2020-02-26", 0.02], ["2020-02-26", 0.02], ["2020-02-29", 0.02], ["2020-03-01", 0.02], ["2020-03-09", 0.02], ["2020-03-13", 0.02], ["2020-03-17", 0.02], ["2020-03-20", 0.02], ["2020-03-23", 0.02], ["2020-03-23", 0.02], ["2020-03-24", 0.015], ["2020-03-25", 0.01], ["2020-03-28", 0.02], ["2020-03-29", 0.02], ["2020-04-01", 0.02], ["2020-04-04", 0.015], ["2020-04-04", 0.01], ["2020-04-04", 0.01], ["2020-04-06", 0.01], ["2020-04-06", 0.01], ["2020-04-08", 0.01], ["2020-04-09", 0.01], ["2020-04-15", 0.01], ["2020-04-15", 0.0], ["2020-04-16", 0.0], ["2020-04-18", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-20", 0.0], ["2020-04-21", 0.0], ["2020-04-23", 0.0], ["2020-04-23", 0.0], ["2020-04-27", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-07", 0.0], ["2020-05-08", 0.0], ["2020-05-11", 0.0], ["2020-05-14", 0.0], ["2020-05-19", 0.0], ["2020-05-20", 0.0], ["2020-05-20", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-23", 0.0], ["2020-05-25", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-03", 0.0], ["2020-06-03", 0.0], ["2020-06-03", 0.0], ["2020-06-04", 0.0], ["2020-06-04", 0.0], ["2020-06-04", 0.0], ["2020-06-11", 0.0], ["2020-06-11", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-14", 0.0], ["2020-06-14", 0.0], ["2020-06-14", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-17", 0.0], ["2020-06-17", 0.005], ["2020-06-19", 0.005], ["2020-06-20", 0.005], ["2020-06-21", 0.0], ["2020-06-21", 0.0], ["2020-06-23", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-25", 0.0], ["2020-06-27", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2686 |
<p>Conflict, drought, and international isolation have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/global-hunger-is-now-more-a-problem-of-price-than-availability" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/afghanistan-risks-winter-famine-after-devastating-year" target="_blank">World Food Program</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-7c81e60a50f40a3a011354fa3a26e78d" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/" target="_blank">IPC</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-09-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan before 1 September 2023? | 2022-12-30 | [["2022-12-30", 0.175], ["2022-12-30", 0.2525], ["2022-12-30", 0.3583], ["2022-12-30", 0.3063], ["2022-12-31", 0.28], ["2022-12-31", 0.2417], ["2022-12-31", 0.2586], ["2022-12-31", 0.2944], ["2022-12-31", 0.3083], ["2022-12-31", 0.3235], ["2022-12-31", 0.3129], ["2022-12-31", 0.3138], ["2022-12-31", 0.2909], ["2022-12-31", 0.3132], ["2022-12-31", 0.3522], ["2022-12-31", 0.34], ["2023-01-01", 0.3473], ["2023-01-01", 0.3483], ["2023-01-01", 0.341], ["2023-01-01", 0.3322], ["2023-01-01", 0.325], ["2023-01-01", 0.3364], ["2023-01-01", 0.3545], ["2023-01-01", 0.3643], ["2023-01-01", 0.3732], ["2023-01-01", 0.3709], ["2023-01-01", 0.3744], ["2023-01-01", 0.3777], ["2023-01-01", 0.3898], ["2023-01-01", 0.3833], ["2023-01-01", 0.3906], ["2023-01-01", 0.4167], ["2023-01-01", 0.4182], ["2023-01-01", 0.4171], ["2023-01-01", 0.429], ["2023-01-01", 0.433], ["2023-01-01", 0.4425], ["2023-01-02", 0.4425], ["2023-01-02", 0.4417], ["2023-01-02", 0.4351], ["2023-01-02", 0.4494], ["2023-01-02", 0.4473], ["2023-01-02", 0.4469], ["2023-01-02", 0.4501], ["2023-01-02", 0.4463], ["2023-01-02", 0.4462], ["2023-01-02", 0.4425], ["2023-01-02", 0.4465], ["2023-01-02", 0.4495], ["2023-01-02", 0.4523], ["2023-01-02", 0.4504], ["2023-01-02", 0.4552], ["2023-01-02", 0.4452], ["2023-01-02", 0.4431], ["2023-01-02", 0.4399], ["2023-01-02", 0.4484], ["2023-01-02", 0.4538], ["2023-01-02", 0.4596], ["2023-01-02", 0.4664], ["2023-01-02", 0.4611], ["2023-01-02", 0.4689], ["2023-01-02", 0.4754], ["2023-01-02", 0.4736], ["2023-01-02", 0.4736], ["2023-01-02", 0.4748], ["2023-01-02", 0.4776], ["2023-01-03", 0.4808], ["2023-01-03", 0.4958], ["2023-01-03", 0.4955], ["2023-01-03", 0.5014], ["2023-01-03", 0.5004], ["2023-01-03", 0.5007], ["2023-01-03", 0.5172], ["2023-01-03", 0.5136], ["2023-01-03", 0.5112], ["2023-01-03", 0.5095], ["2023-01-03", 0.5031], ["2023-01-04", 0.502], ["2023-01-04", 0.5073], ["2023-01-04", 0.5235], ["2023-01-04", 0.5222], ["2023-01-04", 0.5149], ["2023-01-04", 0.519], ["2023-01-05", 0.5089], ["2023-01-05", 0.5039], ["2023-01-05", 0.4902], ["2023-01-05", 0.4982], ["2023-01-05", 0.493], ["2023-01-06", 0.487], ["2023-01-06", 0.479], ["2023-01-06", 0.4897], ["2023-01-06", 0.4805], ["2023-01-06", 0.4833], ["2023-01-07", 0.485], ["2023-01-08", 0.4764], ["2023-01-08", 0.4785], ["2023-01-08", 0.4855], ["2023-01-08", 0.477], ["2023-01-08", 0.4809], ["2023-01-09", 0.4647], ["2023-01-09", 0.4623], ["2023-01-09", 0.4552], ["2023-01-09", 0.4517], ["2023-01-09", 0.4408], ["2023-01-09", 0.4334], ["2023-01-10", 0.415], ["2023-01-10", 0.4231], ["2023-01-10", 0.414], ["2023-01-11", 0.4181], ["2023-01-11", 0.4007], ["2023-01-11", 0.4087], ["2023-01-13", 0.41], ["2023-01-13", 0.4051], ["2023-01-14", 0.3965], ["2023-01-16", 0.4006], ["2023-01-16", 0.3957], ["2023-01-16", 0.3964], ["2023-01-17", 0.4051], ["2023-01-18", 0.3912], ["2023-01-18", 0.3935], ["2023-01-19", 0.3935], ["2023-01-21", 0.3881], ["2023-01-21", 0.3948], ["2023-01-21", 0.3952], ["2023-01-22", 0.3955], ["2023-01-23", 0.3938], ["2023-01-24", 0.3833], ["2023-01-24", 0.3866], ["2023-01-24", 0.3895], ["2023-01-24", 0.3856], ["2023-01-24", 0.3947], ["2023-01-25", 0.3968], ["2023-01-26", 0.3919], ["2023-01-26", 0.3984], ["2023-01-26", 0.3984], ["2023-01-27", 0.4053], ["2023-01-27", 0.409], ["2023-01-27", 0.4099], ["2023-01-28", 0.4191], ["2023-01-28", 0.4206], ["2023-01-29", 0.4224], ["2023-01-29", 0.4206], ["2023-01-30", 0.4201], ["2023-01-30", 0.4267], ["2023-01-31", 0.4328], ["2023-02-01", 0.4385], ["2023-02-01", 0.4389], ["2023-02-01", 0.4344], ["2023-02-03", 0.4435], ["2023-02-04", 0.4374], ["2023-02-04", 0.437], ["2023-02-06", 0.4298], ["2023-02-06", 0.4275], ["2023-02-07", 0.4183], ["2023-02-08", 0.409], ["2023-02-10", 0.3967], ["2023-02-10", 0.3885], ["2023-02-13", 0.3863], ["2023-02-13", 0.3843], ["2023-02-13", 0.3839], ["2023-02-13", 0.3827], ["2023-02-14", 0.3873], ["2023-02-16", 0.3891], ["2023-02-18", 0.3875], ["2023-02-18", 0.3849], ["2023-02-19", 0.3799], ["2023-02-20", 0.3711], ["2023-02-21", 0.3736], ["2023-02-22", 0.376], ["2023-02-23", 0.3752], ["2023-02-24", 0.3712], ["2023-02-24", 0.3747], ["2023-02-25", 0.3717], ["2023-02-27", 0.3673], ["2023-02-28", 0.367], ["2023-02-28", 0.3641], ["2023-02-28", 0.361], ["2023-02-28", 0.3615], ["2023-02-28", 0.3622], ["2023-03-03", 0.3614], ["2023-03-05", 0.3658], ["2023-03-05", 0.3576], ["2023-03-06", 0.3573], ["2023-03-06", 0.3478], ["2023-03-06", 0.3476], ["2023-03-07", 0.3463], ["2023-03-08", 0.3448], ["2023-03-09", 0.3442], ["2023-03-11", 0.3438], ["2023-03-12", 0.3419], ["2023-03-15", 0.3414], ["2023-03-15", 0.3423], ["2023-03-16", 0.3415], ["2023-03-17", 0.3427], ["2023-03-20", 0.3433], ["2023-03-22", 0.344], ["2023-03-23", 0.3519], ["2023-03-24", 0.3489], ["2023-03-27", 0.349], ["2023-03-29", 0.3503], ["2023-03-30", 0.3497], ["2023-03-31", 0.3494], ["2023-04-01", 0.35], ["2023-04-03", 0.348], ["2023-04-05", 0.3399], ["2023-04-07", 0.3398], ["2023-04-08", 0.3417], ["2023-04-10", 0.3413], ["2023-04-10", 0.3402], ["2023-04-12", 0.3397], ["2023-04-13", 0.3393], ["2023-04-14", 0.3393], ["2023-04-16", 0.338], ["2023-04-17", 0.3322], ["2023-04-18", 0.3324], ["2023-04-19", 0.325], ["2023-04-20", 0.3222], ["2023-04-22", 0.3219], ["2023-04-24", 0.3168], ["2023-04-26", 0.316], ["2023-04-26", 0.3149], ["2023-04-28", 0.3144], ["2023-04-29", 0.3163], ["2023-04-30", 0.312], ["2023-05-01", 0.3103], ["2023-05-03", 0.31], ["2023-05-04", 0.3162], ["2023-05-07", 0.312], ["2023-05-08", 0.3132], ["2023-05-09", 0.3118], ["2023-05-10", 0.3145], ["2023-05-11", 0.3143], ["2023-05-11", 0.312], ["2023-05-12", 0.3143], ["2023-05-13", 0.3138], ["2023-05-14", 0.3149], ["2023-05-15", 0.3139], ["2023-05-16", 0.3144], ["2023-05-18", 0.3154], ["2023-05-19", 0.3156], ["2023-05-20", 0.3156], ["2023-05-21", 0.3187], ["2023-05-24", 0.3184], ["2023-05-25", 0.3184], ["2023-05-27", 0.3161], ["2023-05-28", 0.3159], ["2023-05-30", 0.3148], ["2023-06-01", 0.3047], ["2023-06-01", 0.3045], ["2023-06-02", 0.3036], ["2023-06-05", 0.304], ["2023-06-07", 0.3001], ["2023-06-08", 0.2956], ["2023-06-09", 0.2944], ["2023-06-09", 0.2871], ["2023-06-11", 0.2929], ["2023-06-11", 0.2911], ["2023-06-13", 0.2905], ["2023-06-14", 0.2875], ["2023-06-15", 0.2895], ["2023-06-18", 0.2893], ["2023-06-18", 0.2863], ["2023-06-18", 0.2862], ["2023-06-19", 0.2859], ["2023-06-20", 0.2853], ["2023-06-21", 0.2852], ["2023-06-22", 0.2848], ["2023-06-25", 0.2847], ["2023-06-28", 0.2825], ["2023-06-28", 0.2821], ["2023-07-01", 0.2815], ["2023-07-02", 0.2735], ["2023-07-02", 0.2732], ["2023-07-04", 0.274], ["2023-07-04", 0.2735], ["2023-07-06", 0.2697], ["2023-07-07", 0.2687], ["2023-07-08", 0.2683], ["2023-07-09", 0.2676], ["2023-07-10", 0.2659], ["2023-07-11", 0.2578], ["2023-07-12", 0.2572], ["2023-07-13", 0.2539], ["2023-07-16", 0.2511], ["2023-07-17", 0.2497], ["2023-07-19", 0.2446], ["2023-07-21", 0.2429], ["2023-07-22", 0.2425], ["2023-07-24", 0.2425], ["2023-07-24", 0.2424], ["2023-07-25", 0.2406], ["2023-07-27", 0.2381], ["2023-07-28", 0.2374], ["2023-07-28", 0.2361], ["2023-07-29", 0.2335], ["2023-07-30", 0.2314], ["2023-07-31", 0.2224], ["2023-07-31", 0.2181], ["2023-08-01", 0.2174], ["2023-08-02", 0.2163], ["2023-08-03", 0.2075], ["2023-08-04", 0.2068], ["2023-08-04", 0.2051], ["2023-08-04", 0.2029], ["2023-08-05", 0.2028], ["2023-08-07", 0.2007], ["2023-08-08", 0.1976], ["2023-08-09", 0.1883], ["2023-08-09", 0.1876], ["2023-08-10", 0.1858], ["2023-08-11", 0.1852], ["2023-08-12", 0.182], ["2023-08-12", 0.1812], ["2023-08-13", 0.181], ["2023-08-13", 0.1801], ["2023-08-15", 0.1766], ["2023-08-15", 0.1758], ["2023-08-15", 0.1757], ["2023-08-16", 0.1753], ["2023-08-16", 0.1748], ["2023-08-18", 0.1697], ["2023-08-18", 0.1683], ["2023-08-20", 0.1674], ["2023-08-21", 0.1665], ["2023-08-22", 0.165], ["2023-08-22", 0.16], ["2023-08-23", 0.1583], ["2023-08-24", 0.1578], ["2023-08-25", 0.1572], ["2023-08-25", 0.1565], ["2023-08-26", 0.1557], ["2023-08-27", 0.1513], ["2023-08-28", 0.1508], ["2023-08-28", 0.1449], ["2023-08-29", 0.1441], ["2023-08-30", 0.1439], ["2023-08-30", 0.1404], ["2023-08-31", 0.139], ["2023-08-31", 0.1349], ["2023-09-01", 0.1349]] | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/6/15/photos-locusts-destroy-afghanistan-crops-amid-severe-food-crisis", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-risk-overview-29-june-2023", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/04/afghanistan-economic-crisis-underlies-mass-hunger", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/afghanistan-food-insecurity-humanitarian-crisis-war/", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/afghanistan-was-loss-better-peace", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-food-security-update-1st-quarter-january-april-2023", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692", "https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/china-un-fao-100.html", "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ukrainian-grain-exports-explained/", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1107132", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-price-bulletin-june-2023", "https://www.rferl.org/a/taliban-afghanistan-china-economy-/31440990.html", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/07/382342", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1156351/?iso3=AFG", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/20/millions-close-to-hunger-after-wfp-cuts-food-aid-to-afghanistan#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20country%20is%20at%20the,one%20step%20away%20from%20famine", "https://www.wfpusa.org/countries/afghanistan/", "https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/data", "https://fews.net/afghanistan-acute-food-insecurity-classification-may-2023-september-2023", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/wfp-afghanistan-situation-report-24-may-2023", "https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean", "https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/afghanistan-emergency#:~:text=Job%20losses%2C%20lack%20of%20cash,food%20prices%20on%20the%20rise", "https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134722#:~:text=Since%20August%202022%2C%20nine%20out,ever%20recorded%20in%20the%20country", "https://fews.net/asia/afghanistan", "https://thechinaproject.com/2021/09/03/taliban-%e2%9d%a4%ef%b8%8f-china/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-11-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2165 |
<p>H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is one of the core components of the Biden administration's legislative agenda (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text" target="_blank">H.R.3684</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/02/updated-fact-sheet-bipartisan-infrastructure-investment-and-jobs-act/" target="_blank">White House</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/28/politics/infrastructure-bill-explained/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). An amended H.R.3684 becoming law would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-15 | Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, become law? | 2021-10-21 | [["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.5], ["2021-10-22", 0.56], ["2021-10-22", 0.455], ["2021-10-22", 0.56], ["2021-10-23", 0.56], ["2021-10-23", 0.56], ["2021-10-23", 0.68], ["2021-10-23", 0.66], ["2021-10-23", 0.705], ["2021-10-23", 0.66], ["2021-10-23", 0.705], ["2021-10-23", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.775], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-25", 0.75], ["2021-10-25", 0.75], ["2021-10-25", 0.75], ["2021-10-25", 0.775], ["2021-10-25", 0.75], ["2021-10-25", 0.775], ["2021-10-25", 0.8], ["2021-10-25", 0.81], ["2021-10-25", 0.82], ["2021-10-25", 0.81], ["2021-10-25", 0.81], ["2021-10-25", 0.81], ["2021-10-25", 0.8], ["2021-10-25", 0.8], ["2021-10-25", 0.775], ["2021-10-26", 0.775], ["2021-10-26", 0.75], ["2021-10-26", 0.75], ["2021-10-26", 0.75], ["2021-10-26", 0.785], ["2021-10-26", 0.785], ["2021-10-26", 0.82], ["2021-10-26", 0.86], ["2021-10-26", 0.855], ["2021-10-28", 0.865], ["2021-10-28", 0.75], ["2021-10-28", 0.85], ["2021-10-28", 0.75], ["2021-10-28", 0.8], ["2021-10-28", 0.865], ["2021-10-28", 0.85], ["2021-10-28", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.865], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-10-30", 0.8], ["2021-10-30", 0.84], ["2021-10-30", 0.85], ["2021-10-30", 0.83], ["2021-10-31", 0.83], ["2021-10-31", 0.83], ["2021-11-01", 0.83], ["2021-11-01", 0.815], ["2021-11-02", 0.775], ["2021-11-03", 0.775], ["2021-11-03", 0.825], ["2021-11-04", 0.825], ["2021-11-04", 0.825], ["2021-11-05", 0.85], ["2021-11-05", 0.85], ["2021-11-05", 0.85], ["2021-11-05", 0.85], ["2021-11-06", 0.85], ["2021-11-06", 0.85], ["2021-11-06", 0.85], ["2021-11-06", 0.85], ["2021-11-06", 0.875], ["2021-11-06", 0.875], ["2021-11-06", 0.875], ["2021-11-06", 0.925], ["2021-11-06", 0.955], ["2021-11-06", 0.955], ["2021-11-06", 0.955], ["2021-11-06", 0.97], ["2021-11-07", 0.985], ["2021-11-07", 0.995], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-07", 1.0], ["2021-11-08", 1.0], ["2021-11-08", 1.0], ["2021-11-09", 1.0], ["2021-11-09", 1.0], ["2021-11-09", 1.0], ["2021-11-09", 1.0], ["2021-11-10", 1.0], ["2021-11-10", 1.0], ["2021-11-10", 1.0], ["2021-11-11", 1.0], ["2021-11-11", 1.0], ["2021-11-11", 1.0], ["2021-11-12", 1.0], ["2021-11-14", 1.0], ["2021-11-14", 1.0], ["2021-11-15", 1.0]] | ["https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/31/democrats-race-prescription-drug-deal-517974", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/22/pelosi-huddles-with-biden-as-he-tries-to-strike-deal-with-sinema-manchin-516748", "https://www.senate.gov/reference/Index/Calendars_schedules.htm", "https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_Resolution_for_Fiscal_Year_2022", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/actions"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2763 |
<p>Large protests have broken out across France as President Emmanuel Macron pushes for parliament to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/france-government-macron-paris-business-5cd08796a71375c71a05c72b356f7769" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2023/02/06/french-parliament-explained-five-possible-outcomes-for-the-pension-reform_6014606_8.html" target="_blank">Le Monde</a>, <a href="https://www.cleiss.fr/docs/regimes/regime_france/an_3.html" target="_blank">Centre for European and International Social Security Liaisons</a>). For the purposes of this question, legislation would be considered to become law upon its promulgation (i.e., signing) by the President of the Republic (<a href="https://e-justice.europa.eu/6/EN/national_legislation?FRANCE&member=1" target="_blank">e-Justice</a>). Legislation with exceptions to a raised minimum retirement age (e.g., occupational exceptions or credit) would count, and the date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. Implementation by ordinance would not count (<a href="https://www.elysee.fr/en/french-presidency/constitution-of-4-october-1958" target="_blank">French Constitution</a>, see Articles 38, 47, and 49).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 21 February 2023</span>: The invocation of Article 49.3 to "pass" legislation would not count. For the purposes of this question, consider it under the ordinance exclusion.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-01 | Will legislation raising the French minimum retirement age from 62 become law before 1 July 2023? | 2023-02-17 | [["2023-02-17", 0.09], ["2023-02-17", 0.07], ["2023-02-17", 0.1567], ["2023-02-17", 0.1175], ["2023-02-17", 0.154], ["2023-02-17", 0.1617], ["2023-02-17", 0.1486], ["2023-02-18", 0.1388], ["2023-02-18", 0.1233], ["2023-02-18", 0.111], ["2023-02-18", 0.1009], ["2023-02-18", 0.1092], ["2023-02-18", 0.1462], ["2023-02-18", 0.1593], ["2023-02-18", 0.1593], ["2023-02-18", 0.182], ["2023-02-18", 0.1806], ["2023-02-18", 0.1806], ["2023-02-19", 0.17], ["2023-02-19", 0.1717], ["2023-02-19", 0.1889], ["2023-02-19", 0.217], ["2023-02-19", 0.2167], ["2023-02-19", 0.2114], ["2023-02-19", 0.2043], ["2023-02-19", 0.2292], ["2023-02-19", 0.2288], ["2023-02-20", 0.2469], ["2023-02-20", 0.26], ["2023-02-20", 0.2614], ["2023-02-20", 0.2614], ["2023-02-20", 0.2731], ["2023-02-20", 0.2757], ["2023-02-20", 0.2982], ["2023-02-20", 0.3262], ["2023-02-20", 0.3281], ["2023-02-20", 0.3196], ["2023-02-20", 0.3319], ["2023-02-21", 0.3465], ["2023-02-21", 0.3665], ["2023-02-21", 0.3852], ["2023-02-21", 0.4041], ["2023-02-21", 0.4152], ["2023-02-22", 0.43], ["2023-02-22", 0.4037], ["2023-02-22", 0.4422], ["2023-02-22", 0.43], ["2023-02-22", 0.4335], ["2023-02-22", 0.4206], ["2023-02-22", 0.4195], ["2023-02-22", 0.427], ["2023-02-23", 0.4314], ["2023-02-23", 0.399], ["2023-02-24", 0.3683], ["2023-02-24", 0.3989], ["2023-02-25", 0.3868], ["2023-02-25", 0.3868], ["2023-02-28", 0.4015], ["2023-02-28", 0.4315], ["2023-03-01", 0.4055], ["2023-03-01", 0.403], ["2023-03-03", 0.3855], ["2023-03-03", 0.391], ["2023-03-04", 0.3562], ["2023-03-04", 0.34], ["2023-03-04", 0.359], ["2023-03-04", 0.3581], ["2023-03-04", 0.3457], ["2023-03-05", 0.3533], ["2023-03-06", 0.3633], ["2023-03-08", 0.3582], ["2023-03-08", 0.34], ["2023-03-08", 0.3377], ["2023-03-09", 0.3609], ["2023-03-11", 0.3627], ["2023-03-11", 0.365], ["2023-03-11", 0.3723], ["2023-03-11", 0.3868], ["2023-03-12", 0.3909], ["2023-03-12", 0.4055], ["2023-03-12", 0.4105], ["2023-03-12", 0.4095], ["2023-03-13", 0.4265], ["2023-03-14", 0.4139], ["2023-03-16", 0.3935], ["2023-03-16", 0.383], ["2023-03-16", 0.3813], ["2023-03-16", 0.3678], ["2023-03-16", 0.3517], ["2023-03-16", 0.3113], ["2023-03-16", 0.3078], ["2023-03-16", 0.27], ["2023-03-16", 0.2409], ["2023-03-17", 0.2396], ["2023-03-17", 0.197], ["2023-03-17", 0.2022], ["2023-03-17", 0.197], ["2023-03-17", 0.17], ["2023-03-18", 0.1657], ["2023-03-18", 0.1478], ["2023-03-19", 0.1491], ["2023-03-20", 0.1474], ["2023-03-20", 0.1417], ["2023-03-20", 0.127], ["2023-03-20", 0.1252], ["2023-03-20", 0.1243], ["2023-03-20", 0.1235], ["2023-03-20", 0.1157], ["2023-03-21", 0.1152], ["2023-03-21", 0.107], ["2023-03-21", 0.1065], ["2023-03-21", 0.0961], ["2023-03-21", 0.0948], ["2023-03-21", 0.1242], ["2023-03-23", 0.1192], ["2023-03-24", 0.1188], ["2023-03-24", 0.1183], ["2023-03-25", 0.1183], ["2023-03-26", 0.1188], ["2023-03-26", 0.1175], ["2023-03-27", 0.0863], ["2023-03-27", 0.0863], ["2023-03-28", 0.1171], ["2023-03-29", 0.1163], ["2023-03-31", 0.1521], ["2023-04-01", 0.1517], ["2023-04-01", 0.1538], ["2023-04-02", 0.1538], ["2023-04-04", 0.1496], ["2023-04-07", 0.1496], ["2023-04-07", 0.1496], ["2023-04-10", 0.1517], ["2023-04-13", 0.1525], ["2023-04-15", 0.1525], ["2023-04-15", 0.1513], ["2023-04-15", 0.1821], ["2023-04-15", 0.1925], ["2023-04-15", 0.1908], ["2023-04-15", 0.2013], ["2023-04-16", 0.2013], ["2023-04-16", 0.2346], ["2023-04-16", 0.2338], ["2023-04-17", 0.2692], ["2023-04-18", 0.2713], ["2023-04-18", 0.2713], ["2023-04-19", 0.2671], ["2023-04-25", 0.2671], ["2023-04-25", 0.2879], ["2023-04-29", 0.3083], ["2023-05-01", 0.3071], ["2023-05-01", 0.3063], ["2023-05-01", 0.3067], ["2023-05-02", 0.3483], ["2023-05-04", 0.3733], ["2023-05-06", 0.3733], ["2023-05-07", 0.3733], ["2023-05-13", 0.3733], ["2023-05-13", 0.3733], ["2023-05-13", 0.3729], ["2023-05-14", 0.3854], ["2023-05-14", 0.385], ["2023-05-15", 0.3454], ["2023-05-22", 0.3316], ["2023-05-22", 0.3712], ["2023-05-24", 0.3712], ["2023-06-02", 0.3712], ["2023-06-03", 0.3584], ["2023-06-06", 0.3584], ["2023-06-10", 0.3584], ["2023-06-12", 0.3188], ["2023-06-13", 0.3188], ["2023-06-15", 0.3188], ["2023-06-17", 0.3188], ["2023-06-20", 0.3248], ["2023-06-20", 0.2908], ["2023-06-24", 0.2908], ["2023-06-26", 0.2908], ["2023-06-27", 0.2796], ["2023-07-01", 0.2796], ["2023-07-01", 0.2796]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe", "https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20230218-retraites-fin-des-d%C3%A9bats-dans-la-confusion-%C3%A0-l-assembl%C3%A9e-le-texte-attendu-au-s%C3%A9nat", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/14/riot-police-deployed-to-french-court-as-it-prepares-to-rule-on-macron-pension-changes", "https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20230217-fin-des-d%C3%A9bats-sur-la-r%C3%A9forme-des-retraites-%C3%A0-l-assembl%C3%A9e-et-maintenant", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france", "https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/01/10/pension-reform-in-france-which-countries-have-the-lowest-and-highest-retirement-ages-in-eu#:~:text=Current%20retirement%20ages%20(2020*)&text=Excluding%20Turkey%2C%20the%20minimum%20current,where%20OECD%20data%20is%20available", "https://whtc.com/2023/02/18/frances-les-republicains-party-sacks-deputy-leader/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64967516", "https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20230217-fin-des-d", "https://www.france24.com/en/france/20230309-french-senate-votes-to-raise-retirement-age-from-62-to-64-amid-nationwide-strikes", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2023/04/15/macron-enacts-contested-pension-reform-despite-still-strong-protests_6023024_5.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65279818", "https://www.dw.com/en/france-pension-reform-plans-trigger-public-backlash/a-64513082", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2023/03/29/france-s-constitutional-council-to-rule-on-macron-pension-reform-on-april-14_6021111_5.html", "https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20230218-retraites-fin-des-d", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/7/pension-reforms-protests-in-france-what-you-need-to-know", "https://www.teneo.com/france-what-happens-if-parliament-blocks-pension-reform/", "https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20230317-motion-de-censure-r%C3%A9f%C3%A9rendum-dissolution-apr%C3%A8s-le-49-3-quelle-suite-%C3%A0-la-r%C3%A9forme-des-retraites", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/16/world/france-pension-vote", "https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/pension_glance-2011-5-en.pdf?expires=1678039611&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=AA945A7C4F352296EBD33E94AA953CAD", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_49_of_the_French_Constitution#History_of_49.3", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/09/france-is-in-a-stand-off-against-emmanuel-macrons-pension-reform", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/20/world/france-macron-no-confidence-vote", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-senate-votes-raising-retirement-age-64-2023-03-09/", "https://www.elysee.fr/en/french-presidency/constitution-of-4-october-1958"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1665 |
<p>A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over a further escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (<a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/06/16/india-and-china-have-their-first-deadly-clashes-in-45-years" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/asia/china-india-border-clash-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>After extensive review and evaluation of all available reporting, we have concluded that there is insufficient evidence to resolve this question as "Yes". We reviewed events involving Shamsher Ali Khan, Nima Tenzin, and others as potential resolving events and we didn't find any instances which fulfilled all of the elements required for resolution.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-10-02 | Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China? | 2020-06-19 | [["2020-06-19", 0.75], ["2020-06-19", 0.165], ["2020-06-19", 0.4], ["2020-06-19", 0.45], ["2020-06-19", 0.475], ["2020-06-19", 0.55], ["2020-06-20", 0.55], ["2020-06-20", 0.55], ["2020-06-20", 0.59], ["2020-06-20", 0.545], ["2020-06-20", 0.55], ["2020-06-20", 0.52], ["2020-06-20", 0.52], ["2020-06-20", 0.54], ["2020-06-20", 0.545], ["2020-06-20", 0.525], ["2020-06-20", 0.52], ["2020-06-21", 0.5], ["2020-06-21", 0.545], ["2020-06-21", 0.575], ["2020-06-21", 0.575], ["2020-06-21", 0.55], ["2020-06-21", 0.6], ["2020-06-21", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.625], ["2020-06-22", 0.63], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-22", 0.6], ["2020-06-23", 0.65], ["2020-06-23", 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"https://www.oneindia.com/india/india-china-standoff-live-contrary-to-reports-china-is-not-prepping-to-disengage-at-ladakh-3141848.html", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/jknewsline.com/tibetan-gets-awarded-by-the-government-for-action-against-chinese-in-ladakh/amp/", "https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-depth/the-great-gall-of-china-in-midst-of-grim-ladakh-winter-concern-mounts-an-even-more-savage-summer-might-lie-ahead-on-lac/ar-BB1boSSg?li=AAggbRN%C2%A011/27/2020", "https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/article/satellite-pictures-reaffirm-indias-strategic-deployment-in-pangong-tso-spanggur-tso-area/701693", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Frontier_Force", "https://www.inty3000.com/archives/45527#", "https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1060619934400756&id=100013582776801&comment_id=1060907007705382&reply_comment_id=1061456434317106&notif_t=comment_mention&notif_id=1606692814538076&ref=m_notif", "https://indianexpress.com/article/india/died-in-landmine-blast-while-patrolling-special-frontier-forces-tibetan-commando-laid-to-rest-6587010/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1047395", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/27-early-warning-project-2017-2018/scores"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2099 |
<p>On 3 August 2021, the CDC issued a new, revised 60-day eviction moratorium order to replace the order that expired at the end of July 2021 (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/06/1025212834/cdc-new-eviction-ban-moratorium-renters-landlords" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/Signed-CDC-Eviction-Order.pdf" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/560837-supreme-court-leaves-cdc-eviction-moratorium-intact" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). For the purposes of this question, "block" means an action by the Supreme Court that would prevent the order from having legal effect (e.g., denying a relevant appeal, a judgment declaring the moratorium illegal).</p><p>
</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-27 | Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order? | 2021-08-13 | [["2021-08-13", 1.0], ["2021-08-13", 0.975], ["2021-08-13", 0.95], ["2021-08-13", 0.595], ["2021-08-13", 0.9], ["2021-08-13", 0.925], ["2021-08-13", 0.9], ["2021-08-13", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.27], ["2021-08-14", 0.27], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.27], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.31], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-15", 0.31], ["2021-08-15", 0.32], ["2021-08-15", 0.32], ["2021-08-15", 0.325], ["2021-08-15", 0.33], ["2021-08-15", 0.325], ["2021-08-16", 0.32], ["2021-08-16", 0.33], ["2021-08-16", 0.365], ["2021-08-16", 0.4], ["2021-08-16", 0.365], ["2021-08-16", 0.5], ["2021-08-17", 0.6], ["2021-08-17", 0.6], ["2021-08-17", 0.62], ["2021-08-18", 0.645], ["2021-08-18", 0.645], ["2021-08-18", 0.65], ["2021-08-18", 0.65], ["2021-08-18", 0.65], ["2021-08-19", 0.72], ["2021-08-19", 0.735], ["2021-08-19", 0.735], ["2021-08-19", 0.75], ["2021-08-19", 0.735], ["2021-08-19", 0.72], ["2021-08-19", 0.735], ["2021-08-19", 0.75], ["2021-08-20", 0.75], ["2021-08-20", 0.75], ["2021-08-21", 0.75], ["2021-08-21", 0.75], ["2021-08-21", 0.75], ["2021-08-21", 0.75], ["2021-08-21", 0.8], ["2021-08-21", 0.8], ["2021-08-21", 0.8], ["2021-08-22", 0.75], ["2021-08-22", 0.775], ["2021-08-22", 0.78], ["2021-08-22", 0.785], ["2021-08-22", 0.765], ["2021-08-23", 0.765], ["2021-08-23", 0.785], ["2021-08-24", 0.765], ["2021-08-24", 0.785], ["2021-08-24", 0.785], ["2021-08-24", 0.785], ["2021-08-25", 0.8], ["2021-08-25", 0.8], ["2021-08-25", 0.8], ["2021-08-25", 0.8], ["2021-08-25", 0.8], ["2021-08-26", 0.805], ["2021-08-27", 0.805]] | ["https://reut.rs/37GbIsX", "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017b-4048-d1e7-a1fb-7acd4c400000", "https://apnews.com/article/health-courts-coronavirus-pandemic-27522bec9adfdb0fb894cbd3fd57dd1a", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/circuitassignments.aspx", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/08/real-estate-agents-ask-justices-to-freeze-administrations-new-version-of-eviction-moratorium/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/21a23_ap6c.pdf", "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/alabama-association-of-realtors-v-department-of-health-and-human-services/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/26/supreme-court-halts-biden-eviction-moratorium-506982?fbclid=IwAR14rOUkQ4ZLjGFp3D3nQNNFRnMkje-5l1bBs_Q_38Xml1ed5tuvXeLiIFU", "https://www.scotusblog.com/election-law-explainers/emergency-appeals-stay-requests/", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/06/divided-court-leaves-eviction-ban-in-place/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-eviction-moratorium-to-continue-appeals-court-rules-11629481219?mod=hp_lead_pos6"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2610 |
<p>The Chamber of Deputies has yet to form a new government or elect a new President of the Republic since delayed elections were held in May 2022, and President Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-business-lebanon-beirut-310c89034067780d3810b7f04e5fbf9a" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221101-crisis-hit-lebanon-faces-power-vacuum-without-president" target="_blank">France24</a>, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2192001/middle-east" target="_blank">Arab News</a>). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president by means other than election by the Chamber of Deputies would not count (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Lebanon_2004.pdf" target="_blank">Constitution of Lebanon</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Will Lebanon's parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, elect a new President of the Republic before 1 January 2023? | 2022-11-04 | [["2022-11-04", 0.1], ["2022-11-04", 0.075], ["2022-11-04", 0.0667], ["2022-11-05", 0.095], ["2022-11-05", 0.216], ["2022-11-05", 0.224], ["2022-11-05", 0.225], ["2022-11-05", 0.2786], ["2022-11-05", 0.2488], ["2022-11-05", 0.24], ["2022-11-05", 0.2322], ["2022-11-05", 0.23], ["2022-11-05", 0.235], ["2022-11-05", 0.2136], ["2022-11-06", 0.2083], ["2022-11-06", 0.2038], ["2022-11-06", 0.225], ["2022-11-06", 0.2257], ["2022-11-07", 0.2107], ["2022-11-07", 0.2038], ["2022-11-07", 0.1959], ["2022-11-07", 0.1878], ["2022-11-08", 0.1929], ["2022-11-08", 0.1585], ["2022-11-08", 0.1254], ["2022-11-08", 0.1171], ["2022-11-08", 0.1093], ["2022-11-09", 0.1007], ["2022-11-09", 0.11], ["2022-11-09", 0.1071], ["2022-11-09", 0.1113], ["2022-11-10", 0.0864], ["2022-11-10", 0.0907], ["2022-11-10", 0.0964], ["2022-11-10", 0.0967], ["2022-11-11", 0.0983], ["2022-11-11", 0.0983], ["2022-11-12", 0.1025], ["2022-11-12", 0.0983], ["2022-11-13", 0.0867], ["2022-11-13", 0.0942], ["2022-11-14", 0.0908], ["2022-11-17", 0.0985], ["2022-11-17", 0.0969], ["2022-11-18", 0.0885], ["2022-11-18", 0.0777], ["2022-11-20", 0.0769], ["2022-11-22", 0.0754], ["2022-11-24", 0.0708], ["2022-11-24", 0.0692], ["2022-11-26", 0.0685], ["2022-11-28", 0.0654], ["2022-11-30", 0.0646], ["2022-12-01", 0.0646], ["2022-12-01", 0.0638], ["2022-12-04", 0.0631], ["2022-12-04", 0.0615], ["2022-12-04", 0.0554], ["2022-12-06", 0.1285], ["2022-12-06", 0.2015], ["2022-12-06", 0.1977], ["2022-12-07", 0.1985], ["2022-12-07", 0.1977], ["2022-12-09", 0.1969], ["2022-12-10", 0.2046], ["2022-12-12", 0.2038], ["2022-12-13", 0.2038], ["2022-12-13", 0.2038], ["2022-12-14", 0.2038], ["2022-12-16", 0.2015], ["2022-12-17", 0.2008], ["2022-12-17", 0.1992], ["2022-12-18", 0.1985], ["2022-12-19", 0.1843], ["2022-12-19", 0.1829], ["2022-12-19", 0.18], ["2022-12-19", 0.1757], ["2022-12-21", 0.1757], ["2022-12-23", 0.175], ["2022-12-26", 0.175], ["2022-12-26", 0.1693], ["2022-12-26", 0.1671], ["2022-12-27", 0.0957], ["2022-12-28", 0.0243], ["2022-12-28", 0.0229], ["2022-12-28", 0.0157], ["2022-12-29", 0.0121], ["2022-12-30", 0.0113], ["2022-12-31", 0.004], ["2023-01-01", 0.004], ["2023-01-01", 0.004]] | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_Lebanon", "https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/12/13/a-dialogue-table-to-elect-president-of-lebanon-is-being-prepared/", "https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1589248736424873986?s=20&t=UO0Oa3CnHTzR2-eSVY1Hyg", "https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3968961/lebanon-parliament-asks-govt-continue-caretaker-capacity-amid-presidential", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221104-lebanon-parliament-rules-caretaker-govt-can-perform-presidents-duties/amp/", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/top-us-senators-call-sanctions-pressure-lebanon-form-government", "https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/lebanon-faces-a-prolonged-presidential-vacuum/", "https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1589248736424873986", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-happens-now-that-lebanon-is-without-president-2022-11-01/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Lebanese_presidential_election", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2022/11/17/lebanons-parliament-fails-for-sixth-time-to-elect-president/", "https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lebanon-the-death-of-a-country/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-06-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2786 |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, China has shared a peace plan for the countries (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/peace-talks-russia-ukraine-china-b6ce7e237f6f9037ad317a69d2f1373a" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64809777" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-china-peace-plan-zelenskyy-xi-jinping-meeting-putin-rcna72317" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. If either Xi or Zelensky cease to be the president of their respective countries, the question will close "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-01 | Before 1 June 2023, will President Xi of China and President Zelensky of Ukraine meet in person? | 2023-03-07 | [["2023-03-08", 0.18], ["2023-03-08", 0.095], ["2023-03-08", 0.0633], ["2023-03-08", 0.0475], ["2023-03-08", 0.138], ["2023-03-08", 0.1233], ["2023-03-08", 0.1071], ["2023-03-08", 0.0963], ["2023-03-08", 0.0956], ["2023-03-08", 0.103], ["2023-03-08", 0.1009], ["2023-03-08", 0.0925], ["2023-03-08", 0.0869], ["2023-03-08", 0.0843], ["2023-03-08", 0.1287], ["2023-03-09", 0.1219], ["2023-03-09", 0.1441], ["2023-03-09", 0.1471], ["2023-03-09", 0.1471], ["2023-03-09", 0.1389], ["2023-03-09", 0.1321], ["2023-03-09", 0.128], ["2023-03-09", 0.1314], ["2023-03-09", 0.129], ["2023-03-09", 0.1368], ["2023-03-09", 0.133], ["2023-03-09", 0.1358], ["2023-03-09", 0.1344], ["2023-03-09", 0.1388], ["2023-03-09", 0.1374], ["2023-03-09", 0.1339], ["2023-03-09", 0.1307], ["2023-03-09", 0.1263], ["2023-03-09", 0.1229], ["2023-03-09", 0.12], ["2023-03-09", 0.1173], ["2023-03-09", 0.1188], ["2023-03-09", 0.1197], ["2023-03-10", 0.1163], ["2023-03-10", 0.1131], ["2023-03-10", 0.1133], ["2023-03-10", 0.1111], ["2023-03-10", 0.1095], ["2023-03-10", 0.1118], ["2023-03-10", 0.1103], ["2023-03-10", 0.1088], ["2023-03-10", 0.1069], ["2023-03-10", 0.1051], ["2023-03-11", 0.104], ["2023-03-11", 0.1042], ["2023-03-11", 0.1018], ["2023-03-11", 0.0959], ["2023-03-11", 0.0972], ["2023-03-12", 0.0848], ["2023-03-12", 0.0857], ["2023-03-12", 0.0777], ["2023-03-12", 0.0632], ["2023-03-12", 0.0645], ["2023-03-13", 0.0667], ["2023-03-13", 0.0657], ["2023-03-13", 0.06], ["2023-03-13", 0.0633], ["2023-03-13", 0.0567], ["2023-03-13", 0.0541], ["2023-03-13", 0.0545], ["2023-03-13", 0.0559], ["2023-03-13", 0.0645], ["2023-03-13", 0.0641], ["2023-03-13", 0.0673], ["2023-03-13", 0.0691], ["2023-03-13", 0.0782], ["2023-03-13", 0.075], ["2023-03-13", 0.0727], ["2023-03-14", 0.0696], ["2023-03-14", 0.0674], ["2023-03-14", 0.0661], ["2023-03-14", 0.0633], ["2023-03-14", 0.0454], ["2023-03-14", 0.0436], ["2023-03-14", 0.0435], ["2023-03-14", 0.0431], ["2023-03-14", 0.0435], ["2023-03-14", 0.0436], ["2023-03-14", 0.0416], ["2023-03-14", 0.0396], ["2023-03-15", 0.0427], ["2023-03-15", 0.0415], ["2023-03-15", 0.04], ["2023-03-15", 0.04], ["2023-03-15", 0.0392], ["2023-03-15", 0.055], ["2023-03-15", 0.0558], ["2023-03-16", 0.0919], ["2023-03-16", 0.0911], ["2023-03-16", 0.0968], ["2023-03-16", 0.1019], ["2023-03-16", 0.0982], ["2023-03-16", 0.0996], ["2023-03-16", 0.1193], ["2023-03-16", 0.1182], ["2023-03-16", 0.1179], ["2023-03-16", 0.1175], ["2023-03-16", 0.1168], ["2023-03-16", 0.1025], ["2023-03-16", 0.099], ["2023-03-17", 0.099], ["2023-03-17", 0.101], ["2023-03-17", 0.1003], ["2023-03-17", 0.0997], ["2023-03-17", 0.0941], ["2023-03-17", 0.1043], ["2023-03-17", 0.1143], ["2023-03-17", 0.1193], ["2023-03-17", 0.126], ["2023-03-17", 0.1257], ["2023-03-18", 0.1226], 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"https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-le-president-chinois-a-dit-a-zelensky-que-la-negociation-etait-la-seule-voie-de-sortie-du-conflit-20230426", "https://ground.news/article/zelenskiy-invites-xi-to-visit-ukraine_d10cf7", "https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-bakhmut-2334ec3a5b74d3cc3c4e012db71920e5", "https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1638601583763005441?s=20", "https://www.ft.com/content/33805887-224d-4a22-a04d-5ff264bfc10f", "https://www.ft.com/content/3c6cbe06-817c-4c1f-8438-ed1d751fa5f9", "https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/xi-putin-ukraine-summit", "https://www.ft.com/content/ae0bb3f6-4cc3-49ca-a0e6-93a8e7cc62cc", "https://time.com/6264416/xi-jinping-putin-russia-visit-ukraine/", "https://inews.co.uk/news/chinas-xi-jinping-did-not-ask-to-meet-zelensky-despite-summit-with-dear-friend-putin-2233609", "https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-finally-called-zelenskyy-first-since-russia-waged-war/", "https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-no-mediation-proposal-from-china-over-peace-plan", "https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-play-long-game-xi-jinping-ukraine-russia-war-china/", "https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/world/europe/20230325-99507/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65396613", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_trips_made_by_Xi_Jinping#2022", "https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-xi-jinping-ukraine-russia-war/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy#cite_note-53", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65396613", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/11/us/politics/saudi-arabia-iran-china-biden.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/high-hopes-china-eu-leaders-prepare-xi-talks-2023-04-06/?ref=kyivindependent.com", "https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1651184756623802368"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2543 |
<p>Liz Truss was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 6 September 2022, and faces a number of challenges, including Brexit, possible recession, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/people/elizabeth-truss" target="_blank">Gov.uk - Truss Biography</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-05/liz-truss-to-replace-boris-johnson-as-british-pm-on-tuesday" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-eu-good-cop-bad-cop-brexit-team-northern-ireland/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/09/08/final-photo-of-queen-elizabeth-serving-until-the-end/" target="_blank">NY Post</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-25 | Before 1 January 2024, will Elizabeth "Liz" Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | 2022-09-09 | [["2022-09-09", 0.5], ["2022-09-09", 0.75], ["2022-09-09", 0.5467], ["2022-09-09", 0.4125], ["2022-09-09", 0.356], ["2022-09-09", 0.2983], ["2022-09-09", 0.2629], ["2022-09-09", 0.23], ["2022-09-09", 0.225], ["2022-09-09", 0.2556], ["2022-09-09", 0.285], ["2022-09-09", 0.2782], ["2022-09-09", 0.3258], ["2022-09-10", 0.3138], ["2022-09-10", 0.3379], ["2022-09-10", 0.33], ["2022-09-10", 0.3313], ["2022-09-10", 0.3281], ["2022-09-10", 0.3088], ["2022-09-10", 0.2939], ["2022-09-10", 0.3037], ["2022-09-10", 0.291], ["2022-09-10", 0.2876], ["2022-09-10", 0.2871], ["2022-09-10", 0.3195], ["2022-09-10", 0.307], ["2022-09-10", 0.3008], ["2022-09-10", 0.2888], ["2022-09-10", 0.2796], ["2022-09-10", 0.2711], ["2022-09-10", 0.2743], ["2022-09-10", 0.2655], ["2022-09-10", 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["2022-09-27", 0.3035], ["2022-09-27", 0.2894], ["2022-09-27", 0.291], ["2022-09-27", 0.3177], ["2022-09-27", 0.2945], ["2022-09-27", 0.2984], ["2022-09-28", 0.3016], ["2022-09-28", 0.3141], ["2022-09-28", 0.3019], ["2022-09-28", 0.3066], ["2022-09-28", 0.3034], ["2022-09-28", 0.3081], ["2022-09-28", 0.3113], ["2022-09-28", 0.3206], ["2022-09-28", 0.3206], ["2022-09-28", 0.3234], ["2022-09-28", 0.3319], ["2022-09-29", 0.3521], ["2022-09-29", 0.3576], ["2022-09-29", 0.3545], ["2022-09-29", 0.3636], ["2022-09-29", 0.3567], ["2022-09-29", 0.3682], ["2022-09-29", 0.3733], ["2022-09-29", 0.3767], ["2022-09-30", 0.3759], ["2022-09-30", 0.3759], ["2022-09-30", 0.4047], ["2022-09-30", 0.4056], ["2022-09-30", 0.3997], ["2022-09-30", 0.4], ["2022-09-30", 0.3976], ["2022-09-30", 0.4209], ["2022-10-01", 0.4165], ["2022-10-01", 0.4174], ["2022-10-01", 0.4218], ["2022-10-01", 0.4365], ["2022-10-02", 0.4426], ["2022-10-02", 0.4456], ["2022-10-02", 0.4494], ["2022-10-02", 0.4538], ["2022-10-02", 0.4694], ["2022-10-03", 0.4583], ["2022-10-04", 0.458], ["2022-10-04", 0.4617], ["2022-10-04", 0.4711], ["2022-10-04", 0.4729], ["2022-10-04", 0.4714], ["2022-10-04", 0.4709], ["2022-10-04", 0.4726], ["2022-10-05", 0.4526], ["2022-10-05", 0.4531], ["2022-10-05", 0.4306], ["2022-10-05", 0.4294], ["2022-10-05", 0.4269], ["2022-10-05", 0.4275], ["2022-10-05", 0.4247], ["2022-10-06", 0.4233], ["2022-10-06", 0.4358], ["2022-10-06", 0.4392], ["2022-10-06", 0.4336], ["2022-10-06", 0.4367], ["2022-10-06", 0.4367], ["2022-10-07", 0.4478], ["2022-10-07", 0.4486], ["2022-10-08", 0.4486], ["2022-10-08", 0.45], ["2022-10-08", 0.4608], ["2022-10-09", 0.4449], ["2022-10-10", 0.4524], ["2022-10-10", 0.4532], ["2022-10-10", 0.4546], ["2022-10-10", 0.4551], ["2022-10-10", 0.453], ["2022-10-11", 0.4522], ["2022-10-11", 0.4522], ["2022-10-11", 0.4522], ["2022-10-11", 0.4576], ["2022-10-12", 0.4346], ["2022-10-12", 0.4343], ["2022-10-12", 0.4451], ["2022-10-12", 0.4357], ["2022-10-12", 0.4392], ["2022-10-13", 0.4324], ["2022-10-13", 0.4411], ["2022-10-14", 0.4473], ["2022-10-14", 0.4473], ["2022-10-14", 0.4495], ["2022-10-14", 0.46], ["2022-10-14", 0.4654], ["2022-10-14", 0.4662], ["2022-10-14", 0.4665], ["2022-10-14", 0.4711], ["2022-10-14", 0.4824], ["2022-10-14", 0.4811], ["2022-10-14", 0.4824], ["2022-10-14", 0.4846], ["2022-10-14", 0.4835], ["2022-10-14", 0.487], ["2022-10-14", 0.4868], ["2022-10-14", 0.4868], ["2022-10-14", 0.4665], ["2022-10-14", 0.4705], ["2022-10-14", 0.4751], ["2022-10-14", 0.4786], ["2022-10-14", 0.4784], ["2022-10-14", 0.4932], ["2022-10-14", 0.4959], ["2022-10-14", 0.4976], ["2022-10-14", 0.5003], ["2022-10-15", 0.5005], ["2022-10-15", 0.5108], ["2022-10-15", 0.5203], ["2022-10-15", 0.5251], ["2022-10-15", 0.5143], ["2022-10-15", 0.5157], ["2022-10-15", 0.5214], ["2022-10-15", 0.5297], ["2022-10-15", 0.5254], ["2022-10-15", 0.5265], ["2022-10-15", 0.5276], ["2022-10-15", 0.5403], ["2022-10-15", 0.5414], ["2022-10-15", 0.5416], ["2022-10-15", 0.5408], ["2022-10-15", 0.5414], ["2022-10-15", 0.5519], ["2022-10-16", 0.5646], ["2022-10-16", 0.5659], ["2022-10-16", 0.5747], ["2022-10-16", 0.5753], ["2022-10-16", 0.5755], ["2022-10-16", 0.5753], ["2022-10-16", 0.5779], ["2022-10-16", 0.5792], ["2022-10-16", 0.5753], ["2022-10-16", 0.5755], ["2022-10-16", 0.5832], ["2022-10-16", 0.5845], ["2022-10-16", 0.5937], ["2022-10-16", 0.5945], ["2022-10-17", 0.6116], ["2022-10-17", 0.6142], ["2022-10-17", 0.615], ["2022-10-17", 0.615], ["2022-10-17", 0.6166], ["2022-10-17", 0.6171], ["2022-10-17", 0.6179], ["2022-10-17", 0.6195], ["2022-10-17", 0.6268], ["2022-10-17", 0.6424], ["2022-10-17", 0.6437], ["2022-10-17", 0.6495], ["2022-10-17", 0.6529], ["2022-10-17", 0.6492], ["2022-10-17", 0.6516], ["2022-10-17", 0.6529], ["2022-10-17", 0.6608], ["2022-10-17", 0.6732], ["2022-10-17", 0.6756], ["2022-10-17", 0.6785], ["2022-10-17", 0.6874], ["2022-10-17", 0.6877], ["2022-10-17", 0.7046], ["2022-10-17", 0.7031], ["2022-10-17", 0.7082], ["2022-10-18", 0.7082], ["2022-10-18", 0.7082], ["2022-10-18", 0.721], ["2022-10-18", 0.7236], ["2022-10-18", 0.7282], ["2022-10-18", 0.7338], ["2022-10-19", 0.7323], ["2022-10-19", 0.7354], ["2022-10-19", 0.7428], ["2022-10-19", 0.7441], ["2022-10-19", 0.7518], ["2022-10-19", 0.7521], ["2022-10-19", 0.7521], ["2022-10-19", 0.7651], ["2022-10-19", 0.769], ["2022-10-19", 0.7823], ["2022-10-19", 0.7987], ["2022-10-19", 0.8015], ["2022-10-19", 0.8028], ["2022-10-19", 0.8033], ["2022-10-19", 0.809], ["2022-10-19", 0.81], ["2022-10-19", 0.8133], ["2022-10-19", 0.8138], ["2022-10-20", 0.8159], ["2022-10-20", 0.8174], ["2022-10-20", 0.8179], ["2022-10-20", 0.8187], ["2022-10-20", 0.8203], ["2022-10-20", 0.8192], ["2022-10-20", 0.82], ["2022-10-20", 0.8187], ["2022-10-20", 0.8215], ["2022-10-20", 0.8228], ["2022-10-20", 0.831], ["2022-10-20", 0.8351], ["2022-10-20", 0.8364], ["2022-10-20", 0.8377], ["2022-10-20", 0.839], ["2022-10-20", 0.8408], ["2022-10-20", 0.8395], ["2022-10-20", 0.8403], ["2022-10-20", 0.841], ["2022-10-20", 0.8423], ["2022-10-20", 0.8549], ["2022-10-20", 0.8579], ["2022-10-20", 0.8592], ["2022-10-20", 0.8597], ["2022-10-20", 0.8649], ["2022-10-20", 0.8705], ["2022-10-20", 0.8718], ["2022-10-20", 0.8754], ["2022-10-20", 0.8818], ["2022-10-20", 0.8836], ["2022-10-20", 0.8859], ["2022-10-20", 0.8949], ["2022-10-20", 0.9051], ["2022-10-20", 0.9064], ["2022-10-20", 0.9077], ["2022-10-20", 0.9077], ["2022-10-20", 0.91], ["2022-10-20", 0.9183], ["2022-10-20", 0.9353], ["2022-10-20", 0.9353], ["2022-10-20", 0.938], ["2022-10-20", 0.938], ["2022-10-20", 0.9415], ["2022-10-20", 0.9428], ["2022-10-20", 0.949], ["2022-10-20", 0.9502], ["2022-10-20", 0.951], ["2022-10-20", 0.9588], ["2022-10-20", 0.9598], ["2022-10-20", 0.9607], ["2022-10-20", 0.9616], ["2022-10-20", 0.9616], ["2022-10-20", 0.9639], ["2022-10-20", 0.9423], ["2022-10-20", 0.9636], ["2022-10-20", 0.9644], ["2022-10-21", 0.9886], ["2022-10-21", 0.9889], ["2022-10-21", 0.9889], ["2022-10-21", 0.9932], ["2022-10-21", 0.9933], ["2022-10-21", 0.9935], ["2022-10-21", 0.9936], ["2022-10-22", 0.994], ["2022-10-23", 0.998], ["2022-10-24", 0.998], ["2022-10-24", 0.998], ["2022-10-25", 0.998]] | ["https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/the-ghost-pm-what-the-papers-say-about-liz-trusss-hold-on-power", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval", "https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582753580746174465", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/opinion/liz-truss-uk-hunt.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1527223", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/can-liz-truss-outlast-lettuce-uk-tabloid-asks-twitter-post-2022-10-14/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-resigns-after-failed-budget-and-market-turmoil.html", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63266222", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1526375", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-14/the-post-truss-era-in-the-uk-is-now-in-the-making?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-hunt-made-chancellor-after-liz-truss-sacks-kwasi-kwarteng-12720267", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/14/world/uk-finance-minister-truss-kwarteng", "https://www.indy100.com/politics/bookmakers-replace-liz-truss", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-poll-unpopular-prince-andrew-b2204988.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1525836", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/14/keir-starmer-uk-election-now-liz-truss-stays-goes-labour", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-10-19/truss-s-premiership-looks-close-to-imploding?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/15/liz-truss-lettuce-daily-star-economy/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm-RE95lKJ0", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/lawmakers-will-try-oust-uk-pm-truss-this-week-daily-mail-2022-10-16/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/opinion/liz-truss-uk-hunt.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20221019&instance_id=75023&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=110400&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1581703318019403777", "https://www.indy100.com/politics/kwasi-kwarteng-letter-liz-truss", "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/liz-truss-fires-kwasi-kwarteng-tax-cuts-britain/671738/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/in-office-but-not-in-charge-how-is-truss-still-prime-minister"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-10-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2589 |
<p>After selecting a president more than a year after the last general election, Iraqi officials are attempting to form a government amid continued political gridlock (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221017-iraq-s-new-president-calls-for-speedy-government-formation" target="_blank">France24</a>, <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9605/CBP-9605.pdf" target="_blank">House of Commons Library</a>, <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/10/15/Iraq-s-Sadrist-movement-says-will-not-take-part-in-the-next-government-Report" target="_blank">Al-Arabiya</a>). A government would be deemed formed upon the Council of Representatives approving individual ministers and the ministerial program in accordance with the Iraqi constitution (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Iraq_2005.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Iraqi Constitution</a>, see Article 76, Section Four). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new government being formed.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-28 | Will Iraq form a government before 21 February 2023? | 2022-10-21 | [["2022-10-21", 0.45], ["2022-10-21", 0.475], ["2022-10-21", 0.65], ["2022-10-21", 0.7375], ["2022-10-21", 0.712], ["2022-10-21", 0.715], ["2022-10-22", 0.7057], ["2022-10-22", 0.7113], ["2022-10-22", 0.6544], ["2022-10-22", 0.6556], ["2022-10-22", 0.69], ["2022-10-22", 0.6982], ["2022-10-22", 0.6483], ["2022-10-22", 0.6433], ["2022-10-23", 0.6131], ["2022-10-23", 0.6064], ["2022-10-23", 0.585], ["2022-10-24", 0.5836], ["2022-10-24", 0.5814], ["2022-10-24", 0.5829], ["2022-10-24", 0.5608], ["2022-10-24", 0.56], ["2022-10-25", 0.554], ["2022-10-25", 0.522], ["2022-10-26", 0.523], ["2022-10-27", 0.503], ["2022-10-27", 0.503]] | ["https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iraqi-cleric-al-sadr-refuses-to-participate-in-new-gov-t/2712622", "https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/forming-new-government-iraq-possible-scenarios", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/13/iraqs-new-prime-minister-designate-who-is-mohammed-al-sudani", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/10/year-after-elections-iraq-may-finally-be-set-form-government"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-05-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2528 |
<p>President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the AKP has announced that he will run for reelection (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkeys-erdogan-run-reelection-year-85285114" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.mei.edu/events/turkeys-2023-elections-opposition-blocs-strategy-prospects" target="_blank">Middle East Institute</a>). Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2023 with the first round of voting to take place on 18 June 2023, and a runoff is scheduled for 2 July 2023 if needed (<a href="https://global.tbmm.gov.tr/docs/constitution_en.pdf" target="_blank">Turkey Constitution</a>, see Article 101).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-29 | Will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | 2022-08-26 | [["2022-08-26", 1.0], ["2022-08-26", 0.7375], ["2022-08-26", 0.7], ["2022-08-27", 0.7213], ["2022-08-27", 0.777], ["2022-08-27", 0.7267], ["2022-08-27", 0.7179], ["2022-08-27", 0.7167], ["2022-08-28", 0.6956], ["2022-08-28", 0.6761], ["2022-08-28", 0.6725], ["2022-08-29", 0.645], ["2022-08-30", 0.6029], ["2022-08-30", 0.6213], ["2022-08-30", 0.6594], ["2022-08-31", 0.6554], ["2022-08-31", 0.598], ["2022-08-31", 0.6007], ["2022-09-01", 0.612], ["2022-09-01", 0.6053], ["2022-09-03", 0.5671], ["2022-09-03", 0.5707], ["2022-09-05", 0.6013], ["2022-09-07", 0.6181], ["2022-09-09", 0.5844], ["2022-09-09", 0.605], ["2022-09-10", 0.6224], ["2022-09-12", 0.6459], ["2022-09-14", 0.6333], ["2022-09-14", 0.5878], ["2022-09-15", 0.5767], ["2022-09-17", 0.5867], ["2022-09-24", 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["2023-05-25", 0.7419], ["2023-05-25", 0.7423], ["2023-05-26", 0.7422], ["2023-05-26", 0.7426], ["2023-05-26", 0.7448], ["2023-05-26", 0.7455], ["2023-05-27", 0.7439], ["2023-05-27", 0.7435], ["2023-05-27", 0.7454], ["2023-05-27", 0.7459], ["2023-05-27", 0.749], ["2023-05-27", 0.7512], ["2023-05-27", 0.7562], ["2023-05-27", 0.7565], ["2023-05-28", 0.7577], ["2023-05-28", 0.7623], ["2023-05-28", 0.7642], ["2023-05-28", 0.7648], ["2023-05-28", 0.7652], ["2023-05-28", 0.7654], ["2023-05-28", 0.7678], ["2023-05-28", 0.7692], ["2023-05-29", 0.7702], ["2023-05-29", 0.7729], ["2023-05-29", 0.7738], ["2023-05-29", 0.7861], ["2023-05-29", 0.7866]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_presidential_election", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65409951", "https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1650395774205796354", "https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2023/tuerkiye-elections-marked-by-unlevel-playing-field-yet-still-competitive-international-observers-say", "https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/son-dakika-cumhurbaskani-erdogandan-onemli-aciklamalar-42256979", "https://t.me/rian_ru/201075", "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-turkish-president-erdogan-keep-his-job/id1587936366?i=1000613110474", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/27/world/erdogan-ill-health-intl/index.html", "https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-tv-interview-interrupted-due-to-stomach-ache/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65560052", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM&t=57s", "https://on.ft.com/3MZmKPg", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/11/opinion/turkey-election-", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/14/follow-the-vote-turkey-election-results-2023", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/opinion/turkey-nato-", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/erdogans-grip-on-power-tested-as-turkey-goes-to-the-polls", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20230515-sinan-ogan-the-kingmaker-turkey-s-erdogan-doesn-t-need", "https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-jailed-electoral-kingmaker-selahattin-demirtas-predicts-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-demise/", "http://www.france24..com/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/opinion/turkey-nato-kurds.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/11/opinion/turkey-election-erdogan.html", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230425-erdogan-cuts-off-tv-interview-citing-stomach-bug", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/turkey-election-2023-results-live-election-result-polls-what-we-know-so-far", "https://electionbettingodds.com/Turkey2023.html", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/turkey-election-results-2023-presidential-nrr2zch25"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-10-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2109 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' "Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)" dataset (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/datasets/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritaindata" target="_blank">ONS</a>, click the green button under "Current edition of this dataset" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" (see "%" under "Working population" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet "Previous Publications." In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-22 | Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower? | 2021-08-27 | [["2021-08-27", 0.0], ["2021-08-27", 0.0], ["2021-08-27", 0.0], ["2021-08-27", 0.005], ["2021-08-27", 0.01], ["2021-08-27", 0.0], ["2021-08-27", 0.005], ["2021-08-27", 0.01], ["2021-08-27", 0.005], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.005], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.005], ["2021-08-31", 0.03], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.075], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.075], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.075], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.105], ["2021-09-02", 0.11], ["2021-09-02", 0.105], ["2021-09-02", 0.105], ["2021-09-02", 0.115], ["2021-09-02", 0.12], ["2021-09-03", 0.14], ["2021-09-03", 0.115], ["2021-09-05", 0.115], ["2021-09-05", 0.115], ["2021-09-05", 0.135], ["2021-09-05", 0.135], ["2021-09-06", 0.15], ["2021-09-07", 0.15], ["2021-09-08", 0.15], ["2021-09-10", 0.165], ["2021-09-10", 0.15], ["2021-09-10", 0.15], ["2021-09-10", 0.15], ["2021-09-10", 0.13], ["2021-09-11", 0.13], ["2021-09-11", 0.13], ["2021-09-12", 0.13], ["2021-09-13", 0.15], ["2021-09-13", 0.15], ["2021-09-14", 0.15], ["2021-09-14", 0.15], ["2021-09-15", 0.15], ["2021-09-15", 0.15], ["2021-09-16", 0.15], ["2021-09-16", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-22", 0.15], ["2021-09-22", 0.15], ["2021-09-22", 0.15], ["2021-09-22", 0.15], ["2021-09-24", 0.15], ["2021-09-24", 0.15], ["2021-09-25", 0.15], ["2021-09-25", 0.15], ["2021-09-26", 0.15], ["2021-09-27", 0.15], ["2021-09-27", 0.15], ["2021-09-27", 0.165], ["2021-09-28", 0.165], ["2021-09-28", 0.19], ["2021-09-29", 0.19], ["2021-09-29", 0.19], ["2021-09-29", 0.18], ["2021-09-29", 0.2], ["2021-09-30", 0.22], ["2021-09-30", 0.21], ["2021-09-30", 0.235], ["2021-09-30", 0.275], ["2021-10-01", 0.275], ["2021-10-01", 0.275], ["2021-10-01", 0.275], ["2021-10-02", 0.275], ["2021-10-02", 0.24], ["2021-10-03", 0.275], ["2021-10-04", 0.275], ["2021-10-04", 0.3], ["2021-10-05", 0.3], ["2021-10-05", 0.3], ["2021-10-06", 0.3], ["2021-10-06", 0.315], ["2021-10-06", 0.33], ["2021-10-06", 0.33], ["2021-10-07", 0.33], ["2021-10-07", 0.33], ["2021-10-08", 0.33], ["2021-10-08", 0.33], ["2021-10-08", 0.33], ["2021-10-09", 0.33], ["2021-10-11", 0.33], ["2021-10-11", 0.33], ["2021-10-13", 0.37], ["2021-10-13", 0.37], ["2021-10-13", 0.38], ["2021-10-13", 0.38], ["2021-10-13", 0.47], ["2021-10-14", 0.47], ["2021-10-14", 0.47], ["2021-10-14", 0.485], ["2021-10-14", 0.495], ["2021-10-14", 0.5], ["2021-10-15", 0.5], ["2021-10-15", 0.5], ["2021-10-16", 0.5], ["2021-10-18", 0.5], ["2021-10-18", 0.5], ["2021-10-18", 0.5], ["2021-10-19", 0.5], ["2021-10-20", 0.5], ["2021-10-20", 0.5], ["2021-10-21", 0.5]] | ["https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/plan-b-mask-wearing-work-home-ban-indoor-gatherings/", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/coronavirusandhomeworkingintheuklabourmarket/2019", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/uk-records-highest-covid-deaths-since-march"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2604 |
<p>Tensions are high between the historical rivals and NATO members over various territorial claims in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/tensions-test-turkey-greece-s-historic-ability-to-defuse-conflicts-/6803179.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/19/could-greece-turkey-tensions-spill-into-open-conflict" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/greece-turkey-tensions-remain-high-as-elections-loom-for-mitsotakis-and-erdogan-231219607.html" target="_blank">Yahoo News</a>). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accusing party's forces. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count. An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks would not count. Both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-09 | Will Greece or Turkey publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 29 April 2023? | 2022-10-27 | [["2022-10-28", 0.1], ["2022-10-28", 0.055], ["2022-10-28", 0.0367], ["2022-10-28", 0.0275], ["2022-10-28", 0.022], ["2022-10-28", 0.0483], ["2022-10-28", 0.0443], ["2022-10-28", 0.0388], ["2022-10-28", 0.0456], ["2022-10-28", 0.042], ["2022-10-28", 0.0518], ["2022-10-28", 0.1225], ["2022-10-28", 0.1225], ["2022-10-28", 0.1208], ["2022-10-28", 0.1121], ["2022-10-28", 0.1067], ["2022-10-29", 0.1231], ["2022-10-29", 0.1182], ["2022-10-29", 0.1117], ["2022-10-29", 0.1263], ["2022-10-29", 0.1268], ["2022-10-29", 0.1268], ["2022-10-29", 0.1215], ["2022-10-29", 0.1157], ["2022-10-30", 0.1105], ["2022-10-30", 0.1057], ["2022-10-30", 0.1033], ["2022-10-30", 0.0996], ["2022-10-30", 0.0996], ["2022-10-30", 0.0958], ["2022-10-31", 0.0952], ["2022-10-31", 0.0952], ["2022-10-31", 0.0979], ["2022-10-31", 0.0979], ["2022-10-31", 0.1014], ["2022-10-31", 0.1332], ["2022-11-01", 0.1053], ["2022-11-01", 0.1167], ["2022-11-01", 0.12], ["2022-11-01", 0.102], ["2022-11-01", 0.102], ["2022-11-01", 0.102], ["2022-11-01", 0.0988], ["2022-11-02", 0.1343], ["2022-11-02", 0.1379], ["2022-11-02", 0.132], ["2022-11-02", 0.1379], ["2022-11-02", 0.1421], ["2022-11-02", 0.134], ["2022-11-03", 0.1273], ["2022-11-03", 0.1167], ["2022-11-03", 0.114], ["2022-11-03", 0.114], ["2022-11-03", 0.134], ["2022-11-03", 0.1381], ["2022-11-04", 0.1394], ["2022-11-04", 0.14], ["2022-11-04", 0.14], ["2022-11-05", 0.135], ["2022-11-05", 0.1418], ["2022-11-06", 0.1418], ["2022-11-06", 0.1418], ["2022-11-06", 0.1182], ["2022-11-07", 0.1218], ["2022-11-07", 0.1229], ["2022-11-07", 0.1229], ["2022-11-07", 0.13], ["2022-11-08", 0.1278], ["2022-11-08", 0.1278], ["2022-11-09", 0.1278], ["2022-11-09", 0.1361], ["2022-11-10", 0.1361], ["2022-11-11", 0.1361], ["2022-11-11", 0.1428], ["2022-11-12", 0.1428], ["2022-11-13", 0.1417], ["2022-11-13", 0.1417], ["2022-11-13", 0.1467], ["2022-11-14", 0.1467], ["2022-11-14", 0.1494], ["2022-11-15", 0.1478], ["2022-11-15", 0.1478], ["2022-11-15", 0.1426], ["2022-11-16", 0.1437], ["2022-11-16", 0.1442], ["2022-11-16", 0.1442], ["2022-11-17", 0.1442], ["2022-11-18", 0.1442], ["2022-11-18", 0.1574], ["2022-11-19", 0.1574], ["2022-11-20", 0.1574], ["2022-11-21", 0.1563], ["2022-11-21", 0.1563], ["2022-11-22", 0.1563], ["2022-11-22", 0.1558], ["2022-11-22", 0.1521], ["2022-11-23", 0.1495], ["2022-11-23", 0.149], ["2022-11-23", 0.149], ["2022-11-23", 0.199], ["2022-11-24", 0.1975], ["2022-11-24", 0.1965], ["2022-11-24", 0.1965], ["2022-11-25", 0.1965], ["2022-11-25", 0.1465], ["2022-11-25", 0.146], ["2022-11-25", 0.146], ["2022-11-26", 0.146], ["2022-11-27", 0.146], ["2022-11-27", 0.129], ["2022-11-28", 0.127], ["2022-11-28", 0.1175], ["2022-11-28", 0.1175], ["2022-11-28", 0.1085], ["2022-11-28", 0.1085], ["2022-11-29", 0.1015], ["2022-11-29", 0.1015], ["2022-11-29", 0.101], ["2022-11-30", 0.107], ["2022-11-30", 0.107], ["2022-12-01", 0.107], ["2022-12-02", 0.107], ["2022-12-02", 0.0995], ["2022-12-02", 0.0995], ["2022-12-03", 0.099], ["2022-12-03", 0.099], ["2022-12-04", 0.0985], ["2022-12-04", 0.0985], ["2022-12-05", 0.0985], ["2022-12-05", 0.0967], ["2022-12-06", 0.0967], ["2022-12-06", 0.0871], ["2022-12-07", 0.0833], ["2022-12-07", 0.0833], ["2022-12-08", 0.0833], ["2022-12-09", 0.0805], ["2022-12-09", 0.0805], ["2022-12-09", 0.0776], ["2022-12-10", 0.0776], ["2022-12-11", 0.0724], ["2022-12-11", 0.071], ["2022-12-11", 0.071], ["2022-12-11", 0.0695], ["2022-12-12", 0.0695], ["2022-12-12", 0.07], ["2022-12-13", 0.071], ["2022-12-13", 0.071], ["2022-12-14", 0.071], ["2022-12-14", 0.0719], ["2022-12-14", 0.0719], ["2022-12-16", 0.0719], ["2022-12-17", 0.0823], ["2022-12-17", 0.0823], ["2022-12-18", 0.0732], ["2022-12-18", 0.0732], ["2022-12-19", 0.0732], ["2022-12-20", 0.0732], ["2022-12-21", 0.0732], ["2022-12-22", 0.0732], ["2022-12-22", 0.0732], ["2022-12-22", 0.0723], ["2022-12-23", 0.0723], ["2022-12-24", 0.0723], ["2022-12-25", 0.0718], ["2022-12-26", 0.0718], ["2022-12-27", 0.0718], ["2022-12-27", 0.0718], ["2022-12-28", 0.0718], ["2022-12-28", 0.0741], ["2022-12-28", 0.0736], ["2022-12-28", 0.0736], ["2022-12-30", 0.075], ["2022-12-30", 0.075], ["2022-12-31", 0.0736], ["2023-01-01", 0.0736], ["2023-01-02", 0.0727], ["2023-01-02", 0.0727], ["2023-01-03", 0.0682], ["2023-01-03", 0.0682], ["2023-01-03", 0.0673], ["2023-01-04", 0.0668], ["2023-01-04", 0.0668], ["2023-01-04", 0.07], ["2023-01-05", 0.07]] | ["https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/greece-dozens-missing-boat-carrying-migrants-sinks-92465254", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements", "https://theconversation.com/could-tensions-between-greece-and-turkey-lead-to-a-second-european-war-190642", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/11/greek-coast-guard-fires-on-cargo-ship-in-aegean-sea-turkey", "https://www.politico.eu/article/border-greece-turkey-issues-new-threat-over-aegean-islands/amp/", "https://www.hcg.gr/el/epikairothta/parenoxlhsh-peripolikoy-skafoys-ls-elakt-apo-skafos-toyrkikhs-aktofylakhs/", "https://greekreporter.com/2023/01/05/greek-coast-guard-harassed-fires-warning-shots-turkish-patrol-boat/", "https://www-hcg-gr.translate.goog/el/epikairothta/parenoxlhsh-peripolikoy-skafoys-ls-elakt-apo-skafos-toyrkikhs-aktofylakhs/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp", "https://apnews.com/article/nato-politics-athens-aegean-sea-greece-3090d0d3d036808998847e9f5cfe2ff2", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2615-in-the-current-conflict-in-ukraine-will-russia-and-ukraine-announce-a-ceasefire-before-5-may-2023", "https://www.politico.eu/article/erdogan-warns-greece-that-turkish-missiles-can-reach-athens%EF%BF%BC/?authId=1*eto3nu*_a*RDh1M183ekNYNnBtOHNac1YtY0h0VkxUMnI0ckhYeFhydFc2Z193RkVETzZlcTFFalJhU1R2RGZ3QWl5b0pGQw", "https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-greece-turkey-athens-e7cb5f859ae3200a576f326a9ac8ca20", "https://towardsdatascience.com/the-copernican-principle-and-how-to-use-statistics-to-figure-out-how-long-anything-will-last-9cceb7aba20a", "http://safetyrates.com/copcalc.html", "https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/tag/consistency/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912 |
<p>Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (<a href="https://tass.com/defense/1236575" target="_blank">TASS</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-02 | Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? | 2021-01-22 | [["2021-01-22", 0.65], ["2021-01-22", 0.8], ["2021-01-22", 0.85], ["2021-01-23", 0.83], ["2021-01-23", 0.83], ["2021-01-23", 0.8], ["2021-01-23", 0.8], ["2021-01-23", 0.86], ["2021-01-24", 0.86], ["2021-01-24", 0.87], ["2021-01-24", 0.86], ["2021-01-24", 0.85], ["2021-01-24", 0.855], ["2021-01-24", 0.86], ["2021-01-25", 0.86], ["2021-01-25", 0.85], ["2021-01-25", 0.85], ["2021-01-25", 0.83], ["2021-01-26", 0.805], ["2021-01-26", 0.8], ["2021-01-27", 0.725], ["2021-01-27", 0.705], ["2021-01-27", 0.69], ["2021-01-27", 0.68], ["2021-01-27", 0.69], ["2021-01-27", 0.635], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-28", 0.645], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-28", 0.63], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-28", 0.64], ["2021-01-29", 0.65], ["2021-01-29", 0.65], ["2021-01-29", 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"https://www.euronews.com/2021/06/28/us-russia-missile", "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/putin-just-made-big-promise-russian-military-even-better-weapons-188888", "https://dela.ru/news/267973/", "https://tass.com/defense/1286447", "https://www.businessinsider.com/close-military-encounters-are-message-from-russia-to-the-west-2021-7", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kura_Missile_Test_Range#/media/File:Plesetsk_to_Kura.jpg", "https://understandrussia.com/time/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kura_Missile_Test_Range", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-tries-give-ruling-party-pre-election-boost-with-spending-promises-2021-06-19/", "https://ngs24.ru/text/gorod/2021/06/24/69988022/", "https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2021/june/10337-russia-navy-knyaz-oleg-project-955a-borei-a-class-submarine-has-finalized-its-sea-trials.html", "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/06/soyuz-launches-pion-nks/", "https://www.the-sun.com/news/3288595/russia-boasts-most-modernised-military-arsenal-world/", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/russias-strategic-rocket-force-to-receive-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-by-2020/", "http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65942", "https://bit.ly/3BXu8mQ", "https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4878133", "https://tass.com/defense/1306565", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1298747", "https://t.me/warbolts/530", "https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/11736413", "https://xn--b1aga5aadd.xn--p1ai/2021/%D0%94%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%8222/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2169 |
<p>The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-taiwan-military-incursions-test-the-limits-of-airspace/a-59398039" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20211002-taiwan-slams-largest-ever-incursion-by-chinese-into-air-defence-zone" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/china-fighter-jets-will-fly-over-taiwan-declare-sovereignty-state-media-says-1583109" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 August 2022</span>: Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles would count as "aircraft.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-01 | Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022? | 2021-10-21 | [["2021-10-22", 1.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.5775], ["2021-10-22", 0.685], ["2021-10-22", 0.62625], ["2021-10-23", 0.681], ["2021-10-23", 0.621], ["2021-10-23", 0.611], ["2021-10-23", 0.531], ["2021-10-24", 0.557], ["2021-10-24", 0.479], ["2021-10-24", 0.354], ["2021-10-24", 0.344], ["2021-10-24", 0.429], ["2021-10-24", 0.4309090909090909], ["2021-10-24", 0.3972727272727273], ["2021-10-25", 0.4175], ["2021-10-25", 0.395], ["2021-10-25", 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"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-lawmakers-arrive-taiwan-thursday-report-2022-08-25/", "https://www.dw.com/en/us-to-conduct-freedom-of-navigation-transit-in-taiwan-strait/a-62794897", "https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20220806-quarantaine-frappes-%C3%A0-distance-invasion-les-sc%C3%A9narios-chinois-contre-ta%C3%AFwan", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4617396", "https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-08-06-quarantine--remote-strikes--invasion--chinese-scenarios-against-taiwan.BkVKAo-2T5.html", "https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/aeronaves-chinesas-cruzam-linha-mediana-do-estreito-de-taiwan-diz-defesa-local/", "https://news.usni.org/category/foreign-forces/china", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-extends-military-drills-around-taiwan-after-pelosi-visit-2022-08-10/", "https://news.usni.org/2022/08/08/u-s-will-continue-taiwan-strait-transits-fonops-in-western-pacific-despite-growing-tension-with-china", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_team", "https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/nancy-pelosis-taiwan-visit-bonnie-s-glaser", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Cell", "https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/239106.subject", "https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/2019/03/15/the-superforecasters-novels-dan-mayland-interview/", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19423742/china-pearl-harbor-attack-taiwan/", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4617605", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62462273", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/07/china-taiwan-military-drills/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2280 |
<p>Inflation is rising around the world, and the European Union is no exception (<a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2022/02/17/supply-disruptions-add-to-inflation-undermine-recovery-in-europe/" target="_blank">IMF</a>, <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/news/uk/inflation-rates-in-europe-2022-how-january-uk-cpi-compares-to-eu-countries-including-germany-and-france-35719140" target="_blank">National World</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the EU, as first reported by Eurostat for "European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)" (<a href="https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en" target="_blank">Eurostat</a>). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for November 2021 (2021M11) was 5.2%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-18 | Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022? | 2022-02-24 | [["2022-02-25", 1.0], ["2022-02-25", 1.0], ["2022-02-25", 0.9933333333333333], ["2022-02-25", 0.995], ["2022-02-25", 0.956], ["2022-02-25", 0.9633333333333334], ["2022-02-25", 0.9428571428571428], ["2022-02-25", 0.9325], ["2022-02-25", 0.94], ["2022-02-25", 0.936], ["2022-02-25", 0.946], ["2022-02-26", 0.946], ["2022-02-26", 0.931], ["2022-02-26", 0.931], ["2022-02-26", 0.851], ["2022-02-26", 0.87], ["2022-02-26", 0.87], ["2022-02-26", 0.843], ["2022-02-26", 0.757], ["2022-02-26", 0.667], ["2022-02-26", 0.667], ["2022-02-26", 0.666], ["2022-02-26", 0.606], ["2022-02-27", 0.608], ["2022-02-27", 0.668], ["2022-02-27", 0.639], ["2022-02-27", 0.6309090909090909], ["2022-02-27", 0.6263636363636363], ["2022-02-27", 0.6609090909090909], ["2022-02-28", 0.6891666666666667], ["2022-02-28", 0.7308333333333333], ["2022-02-28", 0.7483333333333333], ["2022-02-28", 0.7215384615384616], ["2022-02-28", 0.7084615384615385], ["2022-02-28", 0.7015384615384616], ["2022-02-28", 0.7228571428571429], ["2022-02-28", 0.7764285714285715], ["2022-02-28", 0.7692857142857142], ["2022-02-28", 0.7764285714285715], ["2022-02-28", 0.7913333333333333], ["2022-03-01", 0.798], ["2022-03-01", 0.781875], ["2022-03-01", 0.798125], ["2022-03-01", 0.795], ["2022-03-01", 0.7976470588235294], ["2022-03-01", 0.8017647058823529], ["2022-03-01", 0.7655555555555555], ["2022-03-01", 0.7444444444444445], ["2022-03-01", 0.7533333333333333], ["2022-03-01", 0.7526315789473684], ["2022-03-01", 0.7589473684210526], ["2022-03-01", 0.7926315789473685], ["2022-03-01", 0.8005], ["2022-03-01", 0.818], ["2022-03-01", 0.824], ["2022-03-01", 0.8019047619047619], ["2022-03-01", 0.8061904761904762], ["2022-03-01", 0.8014285714285714], ["2022-03-02", 0.7763636363636364], ["2022-03-02", 0.7604545454545455], ["2022-03-02", 0.7577272727272727], ["2022-03-02", 0.7622727272727273], ["2022-03-02", 0.7586363636363637], ["2022-03-02", 0.7691304347826087], ["2022-03-02", 0.7343478260869565], ["2022-03-03", 0.7370833333333333], ["2022-03-03", 0.75625], ["2022-03-03", 0.7558333333333334], ["2022-03-03", 0.7456], ["2022-03-03", 0.7468], ["2022-03-03", 0.7464], ["2022-03-03", 0.7448], ["2022-03-03", 0.7546153846153846], ["2022-03-05", 0.7588461538461538], ["2022-03-06", 0.7588461538461538], ["2022-03-07", 0.786923076923077], ["2022-03-07", 0.7876923076923077], ["2022-03-08", 0.7955555555555556], ["2022-03-08", 0.8022222222222222], ["2022-03-08", 0.8137037037037037], ["2022-03-08", 0.8167857142857143], ["2022-03-08", 0.8189285714285715], ["2022-03-09", 0.81], ["2022-03-10", 0.8117857142857143], ["2022-03-10", 0.8175862068965517], ["2022-03-10", 0.8179310344827586], ["2022-03-10", 0.826551724137931], ["2022-03-11", 0.826551724137931], ["2022-03-11", 0.8313793103448276], ["2022-03-12", 0.8353333333333334], ["2022-03-12", 0.8356666666666667], ["2022-03-13", 0.8373333333333334], ["2022-03-13", 0.8623333333333333], ["2022-03-13", 0.8633333333333333], ["2022-03-13", 0.8723333333333333], ["2022-03-14", 0.8756666666666667], ["2022-03-15", 0.8756666666666667], ["2022-03-15", 0.8623333333333333], ["2022-03-17", 0.864], ["2022-03-17", 0.8653333333333333], ["2022-03-18", 0.8583870967741936], ["2022-03-20", 0.8606451612903225], ["2022-03-21", 0.8864516129032258], ["2022-03-22", 0.889375], ["2022-03-22", 0.8934375], ["2022-03-23", 0.89375], ["2022-03-24", 0.896875], ["2022-03-24", 0.89375], ["2022-03-25", 0.8951515151515151], ["2022-03-25", 0.9012121212121212], ["2022-03-25", 0.9041176470588236], ["2022-03-26", 0.9167647058823529], ["2022-03-27", 0.918235294117647], ["2022-03-27", 0.9191176470588235], ["2022-03-28", 0.9147058823529411], ["2022-03-28", 0.9073529411764706], ["2022-04-01", 0.9014705882352941], ["2022-04-04", 0.905], ["2022-04-05", 0.9074285714285715], ["2022-04-07", 0.9145714285714286], ["2022-04-13", 0.9202857142857143], ["2022-04-18", 0.9211428571428572], ["2022-04-19", 0.9217142857142857], ["2022-04-20", 0.9217142857142857], ["2022-04-27", 0.9225], ["2022-04-28", 0.9258333333333333], ["2022-04-29", 0.9230555555555555], ["2022-05-02", 0.9248648648648649], ["2022-05-08", 0.9316216216216217], ["2022-05-10", 0.9324324324324325], ["2022-05-11", 0.9078947368421053], ["2022-05-11", 0.9102631578947369], ["2022-05-12", 0.9181578947368421], ["2022-05-12", 0.9142105263157895], ["2022-05-19", 0.911578947368421], ["2022-05-19", 0.9142105263157895], ["2022-05-20", 0.8947368421052632], ["2022-05-23", 0.8974358974358975], ["2022-05-26", 0.9], ["2022-05-30", 0.9038461538461539], ["2022-05-31", 0.9048717948717949], ["2022-05-31", 0.9048717948717949], ["2022-05-31", 0.9074358974358975], ["2022-06-03", 0.9076923076923077], ["2022-06-05", 0.90725], ["2022-06-05", 0.9035], ["2022-06-12", 0.90425], ["2022-06-12", 0.90525], ["2022-06-15", 0.90625], ["2022-06-15", 0.90675], ["2022-06-16", 0.90975], ["2022-06-16", 0.91], ["2022-06-20", 0.9121951219512195], ["2022-06-21", 0.9158536585365854], ["2022-06-22", 0.9163414634146342], ["2022-06-29", 0.9114634146341464], ["2022-06-29", 0.9135714285714286], ["2022-07-02", 0.9111904761904762], ["2022-07-03", 0.9207142857142857], ["2022-07-08", 0.9225581395348837], ["2022-07-12", 0.9225581395348837], ["2022-07-13", 0.9225581395348837], ["2022-07-13", 0.9227906976744186], ["2022-07-13", 0.9237209302325582], ["2022-07-14", 0.9237209302325582], ["2022-07-17", 0.923953488372093], ["2022-07-18", 0.923953488372093], ["2022-07-26", 0.9256818181818182], ["2022-07-27", 0.9302272727272727], ["2022-08-02", 0.9302272727272727], ["2022-08-06", 0.9306818181818182], ["2022-08-11", 0.9306818181818182], ["2022-08-12", 0.9309090909090909], ["2022-08-15", 0.9309090909090909], ["2022-08-17", 0.9311363636363637], ["2022-08-21", 0.9309], ["2022-08-27", 0.9309], ["2022-08-28", 0.9309], ["2022-08-29", 0.9323], ["2022-08-29", 0.9338], ["2022-08-30", 0.9331], ["2022-08-31", 0.9344], ["2022-09-02", 0.9367], ["2022-09-09", 0.938], ["2022-09-11", 0.938], ["2022-09-11", 0.938], ["2022-09-11", 0.9283], ["2022-09-16", 0.9294], ["2022-09-18", 0.9294], ["2022-09-23", 0.9315], ["2022-09-24", 0.9327], ["2022-09-24", 0.9327], ["2022-09-25", 0.9358], ["2022-09-26", 0.936], ["2022-09-30", 0.936], ["2022-10-02", 0.9367], ["2022-10-02", 0.9369], ["2022-10-03", 0.9373], ["2022-10-06", 0.9373], ["2022-10-07", 0.9373], ["2022-10-07", 0.9378], ["2022-10-07", 0.9331], ["2022-10-07", 0.9378], ["2022-10-07", 0.938], ["2022-10-13", 0.9392], ["2022-10-16", 0.9292], ["2022-10-17", 0.9312], ["2022-10-18", 0.9312], ["2022-10-18", 0.9394], ["2022-10-20", 0.9394], ["2022-10-22", 0.9394], ["2022-10-24", 0.9388], ["2022-10-27", 0.9388], ["2022-11-02", 0.9398], ["2022-11-03", 0.9398], ["2022-11-04", 0.9398], ["2022-11-05", 0.94], ["2022-11-08", 0.94], ["2022-11-12", 0.94], ["2022-11-14", 0.94], ["2022-11-16", 0.9402], ["2022-11-17", 0.9402], ["2022-11-17", 0.9402], ["2022-11-18", 0.9402], ["2022-11-19", 0.9406], ["2022-11-22", 0.9408], ["2022-11-24", 0.9227], ["2022-11-24", 0.9419], ["2022-11-25", 0.9419], ["2022-11-25", 0.9419], ["2022-11-25", 0.9419], ["2022-11-28", 0.9419], ["2022-11-30", 0.9612], ["2022-12-01", 0.9612], ["2022-12-04", 0.9612], ["2022-12-05", 0.9615], ["2022-12-08", 0.9434], ["2022-12-09", 0.9434], ["2022-12-09", 0.9434], ["2022-12-12", 0.9434], ["2022-12-15", 0.9434], ["2022-12-19", 0.9434], ["2022-12-19", 0.9577], ["2022-12-20", 0.9577], ["2022-12-21", 0.9585], ["2022-12-22", 0.9585], ["2022-12-23", 0.9585], ["2022-12-24", 0.9585], ["2022-12-26", 0.9585], ["2022-12-26", 0.9593], ["2022-12-27", 0.9593], ["2022-12-30", 0.9593], ["2022-12-30", 0.96], ["2022-12-31", 0.96], ["2023-01-01", 0.96]] | ["https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14698140/2-30092022-AP-EN.pdf/727d4958-dd57-de9f-9965-99562e1286bf", "https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_926"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1500 |
<p>A slowing economy in India is affecting many sectors, including car sales (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17496/edition2020crunch-year-ahead-indian-business" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-s-slowing-economy-led-to-record-drop-in-car-sales-in-2019-says-industry-body-1636106-2020-01-12" target="_blank">India Today</a>). The question will be resolved based on data reported by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, or SIAM (<a href="http://www.siamindia.com/" target="_blank">SIAM</a>). For April-June 2019 SIAM reported that the sale of Passenger Vehicles declined by 18.42% compared to April-June 2018 (<a href="http://www.siamindia.com/pressrelease-details.aspx?mpgid=48&pgidtrail=50&pid=436" target="_blank">SIAM</a>, <a href="https://auto.ndtv.com/news/car-sales-june-2019-sales-of-passenger-vehicles-down-by-17-54-2067327" target="_blank">New Delhi Television</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and resolved when the relevant data are released, usually in early July.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-14 | Will domestic sales of passenger vehicles in India be higher in April-June 2020 compared with April-June 2019? | 2020-01-24 | [["2020-01-24", 0.675], ["2020-01-24", 0.475], ["2020-01-25", 0.475], ["2020-01-25", 0.475], ["2020-01-25", 0.4], ["2020-01-25", 0.375], ["2020-01-26", 0.375], ["2020-01-26", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.675], ["2020-01-26", 0.685], ["2020-01-26", 0.71], ["2020-01-26", 0.71], ["2020-01-27", 0.575], ["2020-01-27", 0.46], ["2020-01-27", 0.435], ["2020-01-27", 0.405], ["2020-01-28", 0.4], ["2020-01-28", 0.4], ["2020-01-28", 0.4], ["2020-01-29", 0.405], ["2020-01-29", 0.4], ["2020-01-30", 0.4], ["2020-01-30", 0.4], ["2020-01-31", 0.375], ["2020-01-31", 0.345], ["2020-02-01", 0.375], ["2020-02-02", 0.35], ["2020-02-02", 0.35], ["2020-02-03", 0.35], ["2020-02-04", 0.35], ["2020-02-06", 0.34], ["2020-02-06", 0.31], ["2020-02-07", 0.26], ["2020-02-08", 0.25], ["2020-02-08", 0.24], ["2020-02-09", 0.24], ["2020-02-10", 0.22], ["2020-02-11", 0.17], ["2020-02-11", 0.145], ["2020-02-11", 0.145], ["2020-02-12", 0.135], ["2020-02-13", 0.135], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.135], ["2020-02-15", 0.135], ["2020-02-15", 0.15], ["2020-02-15", 0.17], ["2020-02-16", 0.19], ["2020-02-17", 0.19], ["2020-02-17", 0.34], ["2020-02-18", 0.34], ["2020-02-18", 0.275], ["2020-02-18", 0.34], ["2020-02-18", 0.37], ["2020-02-18", 0.37], ["2020-02-18", 0.4], ["2020-02-19", 0.4], ["2020-02-19", 0.41], ["2020-02-19", 0.37], ["2020-02-19", 0.405], ["2020-02-20", 0.45], ["2020-02-20", 0.5], ["2020-02-20", 0.405], ["2020-02-21", 0.4], ["2020-02-22", 0.405], ["2020-02-23", 0.375], ["2020-02-24", 0.375], ["2020-02-24", 0.375], ["2020-02-25", 0.35], ["2020-02-25", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-27", 0.335], ["2020-02-27", 0.32], ["2020-02-28", 0.32], ["2020-02-28", 0.3], ["2020-02-29", 0.3], ["2020-03-01", 0.275], ["2020-03-02", 0.275], ["2020-03-02", 0.215], ["2020-03-02", 0.215], ["2020-03-04", 0.18], ["2020-03-04", 0.18], ["2020-03-05", 0.16], ["2020-03-05", 0.15], ["2020-03-06", 0.15], ["2020-03-06", 0.15], ["2020-03-07", 0.15], ["2020-03-08", 0.15], ["2020-03-08", 0.15], ["2020-03-09", 0.15], ["2020-03-09", 0.145], ["2020-03-10", 0.135], ["2020-03-11", 0.13], ["2020-03-12", 0.13], ["2020-03-12", 0.13], ["2020-03-13", 0.13], ["2020-03-14", 0.13], ["2020-03-15", 0.11], ["2020-03-15", 0.11], ["2020-03-15", 0.105], ["2020-03-16", 0.105], ["2020-03-16", 0.1], ["2020-03-17", 0.1], ["2020-03-17", 0.095], ["2020-03-18", 0.095], ["2020-03-18", 0.09], ["2020-03-19", 0.07], ["2020-03-19", 0.06], ["2020-03-19", 0.06], ["2020-03-19", 0.06], ["2020-03-20", 0.06], ["2020-03-20", 0.05], ["2020-03-20", 0.05], ["2020-03-21", 0.05], ["2020-03-21", 0.05], ["2020-03-21", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.045], ["2020-03-23", 0.04], ["2020-03-23", 0.03], ["2020-03-24", 0.03], ["2020-03-24", 0.03], ["2020-03-25", 0.02], ["2020-03-25", 0.02], ["2020-03-26", 0.01], ["2020-03-26", 0.01], ["2020-03-26", 0.01], ["2020-03-27", 0.01], ["2020-03-27", 0.01], ["2020-03-29", 0.01], ["2020-03-29", 0.01], ["2020-03-30", 0.005], ["2020-03-30", 0.0], ["2020-03-30", 0.0], ["2020-03-31", 0.0], ["2020-04-01", 0.0], ["2020-04-01", 0.0], ["2020-04-01", 0.0], ["2020-04-02", 0.0], ["2020-04-03", 0.0], ["2020-04-03", 0.0], ["2020-04-04", 0.0], ["2020-04-05", 0.0], ["2020-04-05", 0.0], ["2020-04-05", 0.0], ["2020-04-06", 0.0], ["2020-04-06", 0.0], ["2020-04-06", 0.0], ["2020-04-08", 0.0], ["2020-04-08", 0.0], ["2020-04-09", 0.0], ["2020-04-09", 0.0], ["2020-04-10", 0.0], ["2020-04-10", 0.0], ["2020-04-11", 0.0], ["2020-04-12", 0.0], ["2020-04-13", 0.0], ["2020-04-13", 0.0], ["2020-04-14", 0.0], ["2020-04-14", 0.0], ["2020-04-15", 0.0], ["2020-04-16", 0.0], ["2020-04-17", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-20", 0.0], ["2020-04-20", 0.0], ["2020-04-21", 0.0], ["2020-04-22", 0.0], ["2020-04-22", 0.0], ["2020-04-22", 0.0], ["2020-04-23", 0.0], ["2020-04-24", 0.0], ["2020-04-25", 0.0], ["2020-04-26", 0.0], ["2020-04-27", 0.0], ["2020-04-28", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-04-30", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-03", 0.0], ["2020-05-03", 0.0], ["2020-05-03", 0.0], ["2020-05-04", 0.0], ["2020-05-04", 0.0], ["2020-05-05", 0.0], ["2020-05-05", 0.0], ["2020-05-06", 0.0], ["2020-05-06", 0.0], ["2020-05-07", 0.0], ["2020-05-08", 0.0], ["2020-05-08", 0.0], ["2020-05-09", 0.0], ["2020-05-10", 0.0], ["2020-05-10", 0.0], ["2020-05-11", 0.0], ["2020-05-11", 0.0], ["2020-05-12", 0.0], ["2020-05-12", 0.0], ["2020-05-13", 0.0], ["2020-05-16", 0.0], ["2020-05-17", 0.0], ["2020-05-19", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-25", 0.0], ["2020-05-26", 0.0], ["2020-05-27", 0.0], ["2020-05-28", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-30", 0.0], ["2020-05-31", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-03", 0.0], ["2020-06-03", 0.0], ["2020-06-04", 0.0], ["2020-06-04", 0.0], ["2020-06-05", 0.0], ["2020-06-06", 0.0], ["2020-06-06", 0.0], ["2020-06-07", 0.0], ["2020-06-07", 0.0], ["2020-06-09", 0.0], ["2020-06-10", 0.0], ["2020-06-10", 0.0], ["2020-06-11", 0.0], ["2020-06-11", 0.0], ["2020-06-11", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-13", 0.0], ["2020-06-14", 0.0], ["2020-06-14", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-15", 0.0], ["2020-06-16", 0.0], ["2020-06-18", 0.0], ["2020-06-18", 0.0], ["2020-06-19", 0.0], ["2020-06-21", 0.0], ["2020-06-22", 0.0], ["2020-06-22", 0.0], ["2020-06-23", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-25", 0.0], ["2020-06-26", 0.0], ["2020-06-27", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-02-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839 |
<p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets (<a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html" target="_blank">Oil Price</a>, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html" target="_blank">CME Group</a>). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg - WTI</a>, Brent: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg - Brent</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-02-12 | Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil? | 2020-11-12 | [["2020-11-13", 0.55], ["2020-11-13", 0.3], ["2020-11-13", 0.25], ["2020-11-13", 0.4], ["2020-11-13", 0.225], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.04], ["2020-11-14", 0.015], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.0], ["2020-11-14", 0.0], ["2020-11-14", 0.0], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.005], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.005], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.005], ["2020-11-17", 0.005], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-18", 0.01], ["2020-11-18", 0.03], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.03], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.075], ["2020-11-19", 0.075], ["2020-11-20", 0.075], ["2020-11-20", 0.075], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-21", 0.1], ["2020-11-21", 0.1], ["2020-11-21", 0.11], ["2020-11-22", 0.11], ["2020-11-22", 0.11], ["2020-11-22", 0.11], ["2020-11-23", 0.11], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.1], ["2020-11-23", 0.06], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.04], ["2020-11-24", 0.04], ["2020-11-24", 0.04], ["2020-11-25", 0.04], ["2020-11-25", 0.04], ["2020-11-25", 0.04], ["2020-11-26", 0.03], ["2020-11-26", 0.02], ["2020-11-27", 0.03], ["2020-11-28", 0.03], ["2020-11-28", 0.02], ["2020-11-29", 0.02], ["2020-11-29", 0.02], ["2020-11-29", 0.02], ["2020-11-29", 0.02], ["2020-11-30", 0.02], ["2020-11-30", 0.02], ["2020-11-30", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.015], ["2020-12-01", 0.005], ["2020-12-02", 0.01], ["2020-12-02", 0.01], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.015], ["2020-12-02", 0.015], ["2020-12-02", 0.01], ["2020-12-02", 0.01], ["2020-12-02", 0.0], ["2020-12-02", 0.005], ["2020-12-02", 0.015], ["2020-12-03", 0.015], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-03", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-05", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-07", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.015], ["2020-12-09", 0.015], ["2020-12-09", 0.015], ["2020-12-09", 0.02], ["2020-12-09", 0.02], ["2020-12-10", 0.015], ["2020-12-11", 0.015], ["2020-12-11", 0.015], ["2020-12-11", 0.02], ["2020-12-11", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-14", 0.02], ["2020-12-14", 0.02], ["2020-12-15", 0.02], ["2020-12-15", 0.02], ["2020-12-15", 0.015], ["2020-12-16", 0.015], ["2020-12-17", 0.015], ["2020-12-17", 0.015], ["2020-12-17", 0.015], ["2020-12-18", 0.015], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-20", 0.01], ["2020-12-20", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-23", 0.01], ["2020-12-23", 0.01], ["2020-12-25", 0.01], ["2020-12-26", 0.01], ["2020-12-26", 0.01], ["2020-12-28", 0.01], ["2020-12-28", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2020-12-30", 0.01], ["2020-12-31", 0.01], ["2020-12-31", 0.01], ["2021-01-02", 0.01], ["2021-01-02", 0.01], ["2021-01-02", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.01], ["2021-01-04", 0.01], ["2021-01-04", 0.01], ["2021-01-04", 0.01], ["2021-01-05", 0.01], ["2021-01-05", 0.01], ["2021-01-05", 0.005], ["2021-01-05", 0.01], ["2021-01-05", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-08", 0.01], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-10", 0.01], ["2021-01-11", 0.01], ["2021-01-11", 0.01], ["2021-01-11", 0.01], ["2021-01-11", 0.01], ["2021-01-14", 0.01], ["2021-01-14", 0.01], ["2021-01-14", 0.01], ["2021-01-15", 0.01], ["2021-01-16", 0.01], ["2021-01-16", 0.01], ["2021-01-17", 0.005], ["2021-01-19", 0.005], ["2021-01-19", 0.005], ["2021-01-19", 0.005], ["2021-01-20", 0.005], ["2021-01-21", 0.0], ["2021-01-21", 0.0], ["2021-01-22", 0.0], ["2021-01-24", 0.0], ["2021-01-25", 0.0], ["2021-01-25", 0.0], ["2021-01-26", 0.0], ["2021-01-27", 0.0], ["2021-01-28", 0.0], ["2021-01-28", 0.0], ["2021-01-29", 0.0], ["2021-01-29", 0.0], ["2021-01-30", 0.0], ["2021-01-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-31", 0.0], ["2021-02-02", 0.0], ["2021-02-02", 0.0], ["2021-02-02", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-03", 0.0], ["2021-02-04", 0.0], ["2021-02-04", 0.0], ["2021-02-04", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-06", 0.0], ["2021-02-07", 0.0], ["2021-02-07", 0.0], ["2021-02-08", 0.0], ["2021-02-08", 0.0], ["2021-02-09", 0.0], ["2021-02-09", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-11", 0.0], ["2021-02-11", 0.0], ["2021-02-11", 0.0], ["2021-02-12", 0.0], ["2021-02-12", 0.0], ["2021-02-12", 0.0]] | ["https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread#:~:text=Brent%20WTI%20Spread%20is%20at,74.29%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago", "https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/oil-why-is-brent-more-expensive-than-wti/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM", "https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil/wti-vs-brent.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/energy", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/oil-markets-brent-crude-futures-us-economy.html", "https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread", "https://lahora.com.ec/noticia/1102340313/petroleo-de-texas-sube-un-07-_-hasta-$5836-el-barril", "https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp", "https://reut.rs/3lIcKJi", "https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2918 |
<p>The US Congress is considering various measures to regulate the growth and use of AI, including waiving immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 for generative AI (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/14/hawley-blumenthal-bill-section-230-ai" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-14/bipartisan-u-s-bill-would-end-section-230-immunity-for-generative-ai" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-blumenthal-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-protect-consumers-and-deny-ai-companies-section#" target="_blank">Senate.gov - Josh Hawley</a>). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media and other companies from liability for content their users post (<a href="https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation" target="_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230" target="_blank">Cornell</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-12 | Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before 12 January 2024? | 2023-06-23 | [["2023-06-23", 0.01], ["2023-06-23", 0.01], ["2023-06-23", 0.0133], ["2023-06-24", 0.01], ["2023-06-24", 0.01], ["2023-06-24", 0.01], ["2023-06-24", 0.0086], ["2023-06-24", 0.0088], ["2023-06-24", 0.0078], ["2023-06-25", 0.087], ["2023-06-25", 0.08], ["2023-06-26", 0.0733], ["2023-06-26", 0.0831], ["2023-06-26", 0.0807], ["2023-06-26", 0.0853], ["2023-06-26", 0.08], ["2023-06-26", 0.09], ["2023-06-26", 0.0907], ["2023-06-27", 0.1007], ["2023-06-27", 0.1013], ["2023-06-27", 0.1007], ["2023-06-28", 0.1154], ["2023-06-28", 0.06], ["2023-06-29", 0.0655], ["2023-06-29", 0.08], ["2023-06-29", 0.056], ["2023-06-30", 0.057], ["2023-07-02", 0.061], ["2023-07-02", 0.059], ["2023-07-03", 0.0627], ["2023-07-03", 0.0627], ["2023-07-04", 0.0755], ["2023-07-04", 0.0775], ["2023-07-05", 0.08], ["2023-07-06", 0.0792], ["2023-07-06", 0.0792], ["2023-07-09", 0.075], ["2023-07-09", 0.0675], ["2023-07-11", 0.0675], ["2023-07-14", 0.0633], ["2023-07-16", 0.0608], ["2023-07-17", 0.1], ["2023-07-17", 0.1008], ["2023-07-18", 0.0862], ["2023-07-19", 0.0885], ["2023-07-24", 0.0923], ["2023-07-29", 0.0923], ["2023-07-30", 0.0923], ["2023-07-30", 0.0923], ["2023-08-07", 0.0769], ["2023-08-08", 0.0762], ["2023-08-10", 0.0714], ["2023-08-11", 0.0714], ["2023-08-13", 0.0657], ["2023-08-13", 0.0629], ["2023-08-14", 0.0614], ["2023-08-21", 0.0614], ["2023-08-24", 0.0614], ["2023-08-25", 0.0614], ["2023-08-25", 0.0614], ["2023-08-26", 0.0293], ["2023-08-27", 0.0293], ["2023-08-28", 0.0236], ["2023-08-29", 0.0221], ["2023-09-01", 0.0214], ["2023-09-03", 0.02], ["2023-09-04", 0.0187], ["2023-09-07", 0.0187], ["2023-09-09", 0.0173], ["2023-09-11", 0.0087], ["2023-09-12", 0.0087], ["2023-09-19", 0.0093], ["2023-09-22", 0.0093], ["2023-09-22", 0.0093], ["2023-09-27", 0.0093], ["2023-09-30", 0.0087], ["2023-10-01", 0.0087], ["2023-10-06", 0.008], ["2023-10-12", 0.0073], ["2023-10-14", 0.0073], ["2023-10-14", 0.0073], ["2023-10-19", 0.0073], ["2023-10-25", 0.0073], ["2023-10-26", 0.0073], ["2023-10-26", 0.0053], ["2023-10-27", 0.006], ["2023-11-03", 0.006], ["2023-11-07", 0.0056], ["2023-11-08", 0.0056], ["2023-11-10", 0.0056], ["2023-11-11", 0.0056], ["2023-11-12", 0.0056], ["2023-11-18", 0.0063], ["2023-11-21", 0.005], ["2023-11-23", 0.005], ["2023-11-26", 0.0044], ["2023-11-27", 0.0044], ["2023-12-03", 0.0044], ["2023-12-06", 0.0044], ["2023-12-10", 0.0044], ["2023-12-13", 0.01], ["2023-12-19", 0.01], ["2023-12-21", 0.01], ["2023-12-25", 0.01], ["2023-12-26", 0.01], ["2023-12-28", 0.0094], ["2023-12-29", 0.0094], ["2023-12-30", 0.0094], ["2024-01-01", 0.0089], ["2024-01-04", 0.0089], ["2024-01-05", 0.0089], ["2024-01-05", 0.0089], ["2024-01-05", 0.0089], ["2024-01-05", 0.0083], ["2024-01-05", 0.0083], ["2024-01-06", 0.0132], ["2024-01-09", 0.0132], ["2024-01-12", 0.0132]] | ["https://prime-writing.com/custom-papers-to-buy.php", "https://www.writinkservices.com/nr-621-literature-review/", "https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-rise-and-importance-of-secret?utm_source=url", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics", "https://sendwishonline.com/en/group-cards/sympathy", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/sen-chuck-schumer-launches-safe-innovation-ai-age-csis", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/02/shadow-congress-bipartisan-deals/622871/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/01/16/almost-none-of-the-bills-introduced-into-congress-ever-becomes-a-law/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-09-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1768 |
<p>In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares" target="_blank">Treasury.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/state-fiscal-responses-to-covid-19.aspx" target="_blank">National Conference of State Legislatures</a>). As the COVID-19 crisis continues, state and local governments are under stress, and proposals have been made for federal assistance (<a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/06/16/how-covid-19-is-driving-big-job-losses-in-state-and-local-government" target="_blank">Pew Charitable Trusts</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/498917-aid-with-strings-attached-is-the-right-compromise-to-congressional-debate" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p>
<div>
</div><div><i>This question is a short-term companion of <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1694-before-3-november-2020-will-federal-legislation-to-provide-at-least-100-billion-in-direct-financial-assistance-to-state-and-or-local-governments-become-law" target="_blank">#1694</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-09-22 | Before 22 September 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law? | 2020-08-28 | [["2020-08-28", 0.0], ["2020-08-29", 0.075], ["2020-08-29", 0.02], ["2020-08-29", 0.085], ["2020-08-29", 0.15], ["2020-08-29", 0.085], ["2020-08-29", 0.05], ["2020-08-29", 0.04], ["2020-08-29", 0.05], ["2020-08-29", 0.05], ["2020-08-30", 0.04], ["2020-08-30", 0.075], ["2020-08-30", 0.04], ["2020-08-30", 0.075], ["2020-08-30", 0.075], ["2020-08-31", 0.04], ["2020-08-31", 0.075], ["2020-08-31", 0.09], ["2020-08-31", 0.09], ["2020-08-31", 0.09], ["2020-08-31", 0.09], ["2020-08-31", 0.055], ["2020-09-01", 0.055], ["2020-09-01", 0.04], ["2020-09-01", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.025], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.04], ["2020-09-02", 0.05], ["2020-09-02", 0.05], ["2020-09-03", 0.05], ["2020-09-03", 0.04], ["2020-09-03", 0.04], ["2020-09-03", 0.035], ["2020-09-03", 0.02], ["2020-09-03", 0.02], ["2020-09-03", 0.05], ["2020-09-03", 0.045], ["2020-09-03", 0.04], ["2020-09-03", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.04], ["2020-09-05", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.04], ["2020-09-06", 0.04], ["2020-09-06", 0.045], ["2020-09-06", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.025], ["2020-09-06", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.035], ["2020-09-06", 0.04], ["2020-09-07", 0.03], ["2020-09-07", 0.04], ["2020-09-07", 0.045], ["2020-09-07", 0.035], ["2020-09-07", 0.03], ["2020-09-07", 0.035], ["2020-09-07", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.045], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.04], ["2020-09-09", 0.04], ["2020-09-09", 0.04], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.04], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.035], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-10", 0.025], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-10", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-11", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.02], ["2020-09-12", 0.01], ["2020-09-12", 0.01], ["2020-09-12", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.015], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-13", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-14", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.005], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-17", 0.01], ["2020-09-17", 0.01], ["2020-09-17", 0.005], ["2020-09-17", 0.005], ["2020-09-17", 0.005], ["2020-09-17", 0.0], ["2020-09-17", 0.0], ["2020-09-17", 0.005], ["2020-09-17", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-20", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-21", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0], ["2020-09-22", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-09-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1516 |
<p>As of the start of the 2019-2020, eleven NBA franchises have never won a championship: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz (<a href="https://www.nba.com/history/season-recap-index" target="_blank">NBA</a>). The NBA finals are scheduled to begin on 4 June 2020 (<a href="http://global.nba.com/key-dates/" target="_blank">NBA</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 6 April 2020: If the 2020 NBA season is canceled, the question will be voided.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 23 July 2020: The question has been extended through 15 October 2020.<b> <font color="#e60a0a" style="">[There was an error in scoring that we are working to address]</font></b></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-09-28 | Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion? | 2020-02-07 | [["2020-02-07", 0.425], ["2020-02-08", 0.425], ["2020-02-08", 0.3], ["2020-02-08", 0.295], ["2020-02-08", 0.32], ["2020-02-09", 0.25], ["2020-02-09", 0.25], ["2020-02-09", 0.235], ["2020-02-10", 0.225], ["2020-02-10", 0.225], ["2020-02-10", 0.235], ["2020-02-10", 0.205], ["2020-02-10", 0.175], ["2020-02-10", 0.26], ["2020-02-10", 0.215], ["2020-02-10", 0.21], ["2020-02-11", 0.2], ["2020-02-11", 0.205], ["2020-02-12", 0.15], ["2020-02-12", 0.2], ["2020-02-13", 0.19], ["2020-02-13", 0.165], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-15", 0.155], ["2020-02-15", 0.18], ["2020-02-16", 0.155], ["2020-02-17", 0.18], ["2020-02-18", 0.185], ["2020-02-19", 0.185], ["2020-02-20", 0.18], ["2020-02-20", 0.16], ["2020-02-21", 0.155], ["2020-02-23", 0.155], ["2020-02-24", 0.175], ["2020-02-25", 0.175], ["2020-02-25", 0.2], ["2020-02-26", 0.205], ["2020-02-27", 0.205], ["2020-02-28", 0.2], ["2020-02-28", 0.15], ["2020-02-29", 0.17], ["2020-03-02", 0.2], ["2020-03-02", 0.2], ["2020-03-02", 0.195], ["2020-03-03", 0.2], ["2020-03-03", 0.2], ["2020-03-04", 0.195], ["2020-03-05", 0.2], ["2020-03-05", 0.2], ["2020-03-05", 0.2], ["2020-03-06", 0.205], ["2020-03-06", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-09", 0.2], ["2020-03-09", 0.2], ["2020-03-10", 0.205], ["2020-03-10", 0.2], ["2020-03-11", 0.2], ["2020-03-12", 0.18], ["2020-03-13", 0.15], ["2020-03-13", 0.15], ["2020-03-15", 0.15], ["2020-03-16", 0.14], ["2020-03-17", 0.14], ["2020-03-19", 0.13], ["2020-03-20", 0.14], ["2020-03-20", 0.13], ["2020-03-22", 0.12], ["2020-03-22", 0.12], ["2020-03-22", 0.11], ["2020-03-23", 0.095], ["2020-03-23", 0.105], ["2020-03-25", 0.1], ["2020-03-29", 0.1], ["2020-03-31", 0.09], ["2020-03-31", 0.08], ["2020-04-01", 0.075], ["2020-04-02", 0.075], ["2020-04-03", 0.065], ["2020-04-04", 0.07], ["2020-04-04", 0.05], 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applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2136 |
<p>The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (<a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22664709/james-webb-space-telescope-launch-date-december-science-hubble" target="_blank">Vox</a>, <a href="https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">NASA</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (<a href="https://www.arianespace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Arianespace_Brochure_Ariane5_Sept2019.pdf" target="_blank">Arianespace</a>, <a href="https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/videos/1058-Video" target="_blank">WebTelescope.org</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 September 2021</span>: When launch, the question read "...before 1 January 2023." It has been revised to "...before 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-25 | Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022? | 2021-09-24 | [["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.455], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.61], ["2021-09-24", 0.61], 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["2021-11-23", 0.9], ["2021-11-23", 0.88], ["2021-11-23", 0.875], ["2021-11-23", 0.875], ["2021-11-23", 0.875], ["2021-11-23", 0.895], ["2021-11-24", 0.895], ["2021-11-24", 0.895], ["2021-11-24", 0.875], ["2021-11-24", 0.87], ["2021-11-24", 0.86], ["2021-11-24", 0.855], ["2021-11-24", 0.855], ["2021-11-25", 0.875], ["2021-11-25", 0.89], ["2021-11-25", 0.89], ["2021-11-25", 0.89], ["2021-11-25", 0.9], ["2021-11-25", 0.9], ["2021-11-25", 0.9], ["2021-11-25", 0.9], ["2021-11-26", 0.9], ["2021-11-26", 0.9], ["2021-11-26", 0.9], ["2021-11-26", 0.9], ["2021-11-27", 0.9], ["2021-11-27", 0.9], ["2021-11-28", 0.9], ["2021-11-29", 0.9], ["2021-11-29", 0.9], ["2021-11-29", 0.9], ["2021-11-30", 0.9], ["2021-11-30", 0.9], ["2021-11-30", 0.9], ["2021-11-30", 0.91], ["2021-11-30", 0.91], ["2021-12-01", 0.91], ["2021-12-01", 0.91], ["2021-12-01", 0.91], ["2021-12-01", 0.92], ["2021-12-02", 0.93], ["2021-12-02", 0.93], ["2021-12-02", 0.93], ["2021-12-02", 0.93], ["2021-12-02", 0.93], ["2021-12-03", 0.93], ["2021-12-03", 0.93], ["2021-12-03", 0.93], ["2021-12-04", 0.93], ["2021-12-04", 0.925], ["2021-12-04", 0.925], ["2021-12-06", 0.92], ["2021-12-06", 0.92], ["2021-12-06", 0.91], ["2021-12-07", 0.91], ["2021-12-07", 0.91], ["2021-12-07", 0.91], ["2021-12-08", 0.91], ["2021-12-08", 0.91], ["2021-12-08", 0.91], ["2021-12-09", 0.91], ["2021-12-09", 0.91], ["2021-12-09", 0.92], ["2021-12-10", 0.92], ["2021-12-10", 0.92], ["2021-12-10", 0.92], ["2021-12-11", 0.93], ["2021-12-11", 0.93], ["2021-12-11", 0.93], ["2021-12-12", 0.93], ["2021-12-12", 0.93], ["2021-12-12", 0.93], ["2021-12-12", 0.93], ["2021-12-13", 0.93], ["2021-12-13", 0.93], ["2021-12-13", 0.93], ["2021-12-13", 0.93], ["2021-12-14", 0.93], ["2021-12-14", 0.935], ["2021-12-15", 0.935], ["2021-12-15", 0.935], ["2021-12-15", 0.935], ["2021-12-15", 0.93], ["2021-12-15", 0.92], ["2021-12-15", 0.91], ["2021-12-15", 0.91], ["2021-12-15", 0.91], ["2021-12-15", 0.91], ["2021-12-15", 0.905], ["2021-12-15", 0.905], ["2021-12-15", 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0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.94], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.95], ["2021-12-23", 0.96], ["2021-12-23", 0.96], ["2021-12-23", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.95], ["2021-12-24", 0.95], ["2021-12-24", 0.95], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.96], ["2021-12-24", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.97], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.985], ["2021-12-25", 0.985]] | ["https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/11/23/a-new-eye-on-the-heavens", "https://twitter.com/ESA_Webb/status/1474290218178170894", "https://poets.org/poem/world-beautiful-place", "https://twitter.com/NASAWebb/status/1474083585216892939", "https://twitter.com/Arianespace/status/1473760271084703760", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jnqz62d9oM&list=PLROeMLXl5EWBLSz3bfYmrKWtJ3outdB4A&index=1", "https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbLaunch/whereIsWebb.html", "https://twitter.com/NASAWebb/status/1474424081286062085", "https://twitter.com/ariane5/status/1474201765977509892", "https://twitter.com/NASAWebb/status/1474719348686217225", "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210831095614.htm", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QS4rfPE2k0&list=RDMM&index=18", "https://www.space.com/news/live/james-webb-space-telescope-updates", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2021/12/22/nasa-partners-confirm-webb-launch-on-dec-25/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candide", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2021/12/24/favorable-weather-expected-for-dec-25-launch/", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2021/12/23/nasa-partners-roll-out-webb-to-launch-pad/", "https://apnews.com/article/space-launches-science-business-south-america-a516ed51ec609e6cc07b517ec9cb168d", "https://www.hwlongfellow.org/poems_poem.php?pid=283", "https://jwst.nasa.gov/content/about/launch.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWBjl-jPcVM", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2021/12/25/main-stage-separation/", "https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Webb/Webb_launch_date_confirmed_for_25_December", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1373617", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIYthyp2lto"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2776 |
<p>The US airline industry is facing various challenges, including pilot union negotiations and pilot shortages that could compound chronic flight delay problems at airports like ATL (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/delta-pilots-new-contract-big-raises.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://kpmg.com/ie/en/home/insights/2023/01/aviation-leaders-report-2023/airlines-riding-the-recovery.html" target="_blank">KPMG</a>, <a href="https://www.petoskeynews.com/story/news/education/2023/02/25/cte-spotlight-aviation-program-helping-to-tackle-nationwide-pilot-shortage/69937156007/" target="_blank">Petoskey News</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) (<a href="https://www.transtats.bts.gov/HomeDrillChart_Month.asp?5ry_lrn4=FDFF&N44_Qry=E&5ry_Pn44vr4=DDD&5ry_Nv42146=NgY&heY_fryrp6lrn4=FDFF&heY_fryrp6Z106u=EE" target="_blank">Bureau of Transportation Statistics</a>). On the BTS page, select "Atlanta, GA: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International" under "Filter Airport," select "All Carriers" under "Filter Carriers," select appropriate year under "Filter Year," and select "Departures" under "Filter Operation." For June 2022, BTS reported 6,688 Departure Delays and 743 Flights Cancelled among 26,928 Flight Operations, meaning that 27.60% of all flights were either delayed or cancelled ((6,688+743)/26,928=27.60%).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-09-29 | Will the percentage of departure flights at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) either delayed or cancelled in June 2023 be greater than it was in June 2022? | 2023-03-03 | [["2023-03-03", 0.51], ["2023-03-04", 0.255], ["2023-03-04", 0.3867], ["2023-03-04", 0.49], ["2023-03-04", 0.396], ["2023-03-04", 0.425], ["2023-03-04", 0.4357], ["2023-03-04", 0.4463], ["2023-03-04", 0.4244], ["2023-03-04", 0.482], ["2023-03-05", 0.4909], ["2023-03-05", 0.4833], ["2023-03-05", 0.5038], ["2023-03-05", 0.5046], ["2023-03-05", 0.4686], ["2023-03-05", 0.45], ["2023-03-05", 0.4375], ["2023-03-05", 0.4353], ["2023-03-05", 0.4222], ["2023-03-05", 0.4053], ["2023-03-05", 0.4175], ["2023-03-05", 0.4035], ["2023-03-06", 0.407], ["2023-03-06", 0.407], ["2023-03-06", 0.3948], ["2023-03-06", 0.3973], ["2023-03-06", 0.3952], ["2023-03-06", 0.4033], ["2023-03-07", 0.4114], ["2023-03-07", 0.3933], ["2023-03-07", 0.3924], ["2023-03-07", 0.3461], ["2023-03-07", 0.3542], ["2023-03-08", 0.37], ["2023-03-08", 0.3593], ["2023-03-08", 0.395], ["2023-03-09", 0.4067], ["2023-03-09", 0.405], ["2023-03-10", 0.3931], ["2023-03-10", 0.3931], ["2023-03-10", 0.3938], ["2023-03-11", 0.3923], ["2023-03-13", 0.3931], ["2023-03-13", 0.4038], ["2023-03-13", 0.4007], ["2023-03-14", 0.415], ["2023-03-16", 0.4164], ["2023-03-16", 0.3986], ["2023-03-16", 0.3727], ["2023-03-20", 0.3493], ["2023-03-21", 0.3447], ["2023-03-21", 0.348], ["2023-03-21", 0.3487], ["2023-03-21", 0.3467], ["2023-03-21", 0.3453], ["2023-03-21", 0.346], ["2023-03-21", 0.3467], ["2023-03-24", 0.37], ["2023-03-29", 0.3687], ["2023-03-31", 0.3588], ["2023-04-01", 0.3681], ["2023-04-01", 0.34], ["2023-04-01", 0.3275], ["2023-04-02", 0.3469], ["2023-04-02", 0.3788], ["2023-04-03", 0.38], ["2023-04-03", 0.38], ["2023-04-05", 0.3794], ["2023-04-09", 0.3782], ["2023-04-14", 0.3953], ["2023-04-15", 0.3965], ["2023-04-16", 0.3965], ["2023-04-18", 0.3976], ["2023-04-18", 0.3976], ["2023-04-19", 0.4024], ["2023-04-25", 0.3747], ["2023-04-28", 0.3759], ["2023-04-30", 0.3759], ["2023-04-30", 0.37], ["2023-05-01", 0.3639], ["2023-05-06", 0.3611], ["2023-05-06", 0.375], ["2023-05-09", 0.4078], ["2023-05-14", 0.4078], ["2023-05-15", 0.4444], ["2023-05-17", 0.4439], ["2023-05-19", 0.4433], ["2023-05-24", 0.4321], ["2023-05-25", 0.4321], ["2023-05-26", 0.4584], ["2023-05-27", 0.4637], ["2023-05-28", 0.4611], ["2023-05-30", 0.4637], ["2023-05-31", 0.4663], ["2023-05-31", 0.4716], ["2023-06-02", 0.4726], ["2023-06-02", 0.4668], ["2023-06-04", 0.4616], ["2023-06-04", 0.4616], ["2023-06-06", 0.4826], ["2023-06-06", 0.4821], ["2023-06-07", 0.4658], ["2023-06-08", 0.4805], ["2023-06-10", 0.4755], ["2023-06-11", 0.471], ["2023-06-11", 0.478], ["2023-06-12", 0.4755], ["2023-06-12", 0.462], ["2023-06-13", 0.4565], ["2023-06-13", 0.4455], ["2023-06-13", 0.4405], ["2023-06-13", 0.4345], ["2023-06-14", 0.4245], ["2023-06-15", 0.422], ["2023-06-16", 0.433], ["2023-06-17", 0.4405], ["2023-06-17", 0.4375], ["2023-06-18", 0.45], ["2023-06-19", 0.4575], ["2023-06-19", 0.46], ["2023-06-19", 0.46], ["2023-06-20", 0.462], ["2023-06-20", 0.467], ["2023-06-20", 0.472], ["2023-06-20", 0.4745], ["2023-06-21", 0.4775], ["2023-06-21", 0.47], ["2023-06-22", 0.469], ["2023-06-23", 0.47], ["2023-06-23", 0.445], ["2023-06-23", 0.448], ["2023-06-23", 0.4505], ["2023-06-24", 0.452], ["2023-06-24", 0.457], ["2023-06-24", 0.4585], ["2023-06-24", 0.4605], ["2023-06-24", 0.4629], ["2023-06-24", 0.4695], ["2023-06-25", 0.5086], ["2023-06-25", 0.5124], ["2023-06-25", 0.509], ["2023-06-25", 0.5062], ["2023-06-26", 0.5071], ["2023-06-26", 0.5114], ["2023-06-26", 0.5157], ["2023-06-26", 0.5281], ["2023-06-26", 0.5305], ["2023-06-27", 0.5495], ["2023-06-27", 0.5614], ["2023-06-27", 0.5757], ["2023-06-27", 0.589], ["2023-06-27", 0.5986], ["2023-06-27", 0.6081], ["2023-06-27", 0.6143], ["2023-06-27", 0.6318], ["2023-06-28", 0.6241], ["2023-06-28", 0.625], ["2023-06-28", 0.6332], ["2023-06-28", 0.6409], ["2023-06-29", 0.6432], ["2023-06-29", 0.6455], ["2023-06-29", 0.6473], ["2023-06-29", 0.6777], ["2023-06-29", 0.6959], ["2023-06-30", 0.7095], ["2023-06-30", 0.7141], ["2023-06-30", 0.7164], ["2023-06-30", 0.7391], ["2023-06-30", 0.7414], ["2023-06-30", 0.7364], ["2023-06-30", 0.7382], ["2023-06-30", 0.7464], ["2023-07-01", 0.7574], ["2023-07-01", 0.79], ["2023-07-01", 0.8335], ["2023-07-01", 0.8335]] | ["https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boeings-new-737-quality-issue-to-affect-9000-seats-this-summer/152896.article", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-faa-presses-aviation-industry-eliminate-close-calls-2023-03-28/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_forecasts", "https://flightaware.com/miserymap/", "https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today/KATL", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartsfield%E2%80%93Jackson_Atlanta_International_Airport", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season", "https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/april-2023-enso-update-el-", "https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/april-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-watch", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/18/boeing-ceo-737-max-production-increases-stand-despite-recent-flaw.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Southwest_Airlines_scheduling_crisis", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartsfield%E2%80%93Jackson_Atlanta_International_Airport#Historical_airline_service", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Ian", "https://www.ft.com/content/50e6ab1d-dbde-4f7d-9b90-a5fdaee40cd1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartsfield%E2%80%93Jackson_Atlanta_International_Airport#Top_destinations", "https://www.flightview.com/airport/ATL-Atlanta-GA/delay", "https://flightaware.com/miserymap/usall/1686999600", "https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday/Atl", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings", "https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday/KATL", "https://www.axios.com/2023/04/19/summer-travel-2023-airline-flight", "https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_summary", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Seasonal_summary", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65465512"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-19 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2588 |
<p>The 138th playing of "The Game," the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Harvard Stadium on Saturday 19 November 2022 (<a href="https://alumni.harvard.edu/harvard-yale" target="_blank">Harvard Alumni</a>). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 68-61-8 (<a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-15/harvard-yale-football-memorable-moments-all-time-history" target="_blank">NCAA</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-19 | Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in "The Game" in 2022? | 2022-10-20 | [["2022-10-24", 0.0], ["2022-10-24", 0.3], ["2022-10-24", 0.4], ["2022-10-24", 0.43], ["2022-10-24", 0.444], ["2022-10-24", 0.4867], ["2022-10-24", 0.4886], ["2022-10-24", 0.4838], ["2022-10-24", 0.475], ["2022-10-24", 0.4778], ["2022-10-24", 0.48], ["2022-10-24", 0.4818], ["2022-10-24", 0.525], ["2022-10-25", 0.5308], ["2022-10-25", 0.5357], ["2022-10-25", 0.54], ["2022-10-25", 0.5375], ["2022-10-25", 0.5476], ["2022-10-25", 0.5478], ["2022-10-25", 0.5521], ["2022-10-25", 0.5545], ["2022-10-25", 0.5757], ["2022-10-25", 0.5776], ["2022-10-25", 0.5809], ["2022-10-25", 0.5839], ["2022-10-25", 0.5888], ["2022-10-25", 0.5928], ["2022-10-25", 0.5931], ["2022-10-25", 0.5878], ["2022-10-25", 0.5882], ["2022-10-25", 0.5859], ["2022-10-25", 0.5867], ["2022-10-25", 0.5871], ["2022-10-25", 0.5828], ["2022-10-25", 0.5812], ["2022-10-26", 0.5803], ["2022-10-26", 0.5837], ["2022-10-26", 0.5842], ["2022-10-26", 0.5832], ["2022-10-26", 0.5868], ["2022-10-26", 0.5854], ["2022-10-26", 0.585], ["2022-10-26", 0.5841], ["2022-10-26", 0.584], ["2022-10-26", 0.5856], ["2022-10-26", 0.5861], ["2022-10-26", 0.584], ["2022-10-26", 0.5833], ["2022-10-26", 0.5848], ["2022-10-27", 0.584], ["2022-10-27", 0.5842], ["2022-10-27", 0.5858], ["2022-10-27", 0.5811], ["2022-10-27", 0.5857], ["2022-10-27", 0.5957], ["2022-10-27", 0.6055], ["2022-10-27", 0.6095], ["2022-10-28", 0.5867], ["2022-10-28", 0.5856], ["2022-10-28", 0.5841], ["2022-10-28", 0.5844], ["2022-10-28", 0.5831], ["2022-10-28", 0.5775], ["2022-10-28", 0.5717], ["2022-10-28", 0.567], ["2022-10-28", 0.5642], ["2022-10-28", 0.5611], ["2022-10-28", 0.5647], ["2022-10-28", 0.5669], ["2022-10-28", 0.5679], ["2022-10-28", 0.5669], ["2022-10-28", 0.5778], ["2022-10-28", 0.5745], ["2022-10-28", 0.5722], ["2022-10-28", 0.5806], ["2022-10-28", 0.5811], ["2022-10-29", 0.5794], ["2022-10-29", 0.5819], ["2022-10-29", 0.5873], ["2022-10-29", 0.591], ["2022-10-29", 0.5913], ["2022-10-29", 0.5943], ["2022-10-29", 0.5897], ["2022-10-29", 0.5929], ["2022-10-29", 0.596], ["2022-10-29", 0.5948], ["2022-10-29", 0.5965], ["2022-10-29", 0.595], ["2022-10-29", 0.5969], ["2022-10-29", 0.5969], ["2022-10-29", 0.5955], ["2022-10-30", 0.5956], ["2022-10-30", 0.5987], ["2022-10-30", 0.6019], ["2022-10-30", 0.6018], ["2022-10-30", 0.5959], ["2022-10-30", 0.5946], ["2022-10-30", 0.5911], ["2022-10-30", 0.5858], ["2022-10-30", 0.5849], ["2022-10-30", 0.5839], ["2022-10-30", 0.5822], ["2022-10-30", 0.5742], ["2022-10-30", 0.5738], ["2022-10-30", 0.5745], ["2022-10-31", 0.5751], ["2022-10-31", 0.5754], ["2022-10-31", 0.5864], ["2022-10-31", 0.5867], ["2022-11-01", 0.5882], ["2022-11-01", 0.5821], ["2022-11-01", 0.5818], ["2022-11-01", 0.5776], ["2022-11-01", 0.5644], ["2022-11-01", 0.5703], ["2022-11-02", 0.5776], ["2022-11-02", 0.5762], ["2022-11-03", 0.5744], ["2022-11-03", 0.5737], ["2022-11-03", 0.5717], ["2022-11-04", 0.5709], ["2022-11-04", 0.5694], ["2022-11-04", 0.5628], ["2022-11-05", 0.5656], ["2022-11-05", 0.5647], ["2022-11-05", 0.5594], ["2022-11-06", 0.5572], ["2022-11-06", 0.5539], ["2022-11-06", 0.5489], ["2022-11-06", 0.5511], ["2022-11-07", 0.5408], ["2022-11-07", 0.5489], ["2022-11-08", 0.5544], ["2022-11-08", 0.5553], ["2022-11-08", 0.5567], ["2022-11-08", 0.56], ["2022-11-08", 0.5567], ["2022-11-09", 0.5564], ["2022-11-09", 0.5561], ["2022-11-09", 0.5531], ["2022-11-09", 0.5514], ["2022-11-09", 0.5494], ["2022-11-09", 0.5411], ["2022-11-09", 0.5319], ["2022-11-09", 0.5278], ["2022-11-10", 0.5251], ["2022-11-10", 0.5238], ["2022-11-10", 0.5214], ["2022-11-10", 0.52], ["2022-11-10", 0.5195], ["2022-11-10", 0.5274], ["2022-11-10", 0.5255], ["2022-11-10", 0.5189], ["2022-11-10", 0.5242], ["2022-11-11", 0.5287], ["2022-11-11", 0.5203], ["2022-11-11", 0.5182], ["2022-11-11", 0.5182], ["2022-11-12", 0.5177], ["2022-11-12", 0.5254], ["2022-11-13", 0.5174], ["2022-11-13", 0.5187], ["2022-11-13", 0.5177], ["2022-11-14", 0.5074], ["2022-11-14", 0.5054], ["2022-11-14", 0.5044], ["2022-11-14", 0.5015], ["2022-11-14", 0.5003], ["2022-11-14", 0.5033], ["2022-11-14", 0.5008], ["2022-11-14", 0.4925], ["2022-11-14", 0.4933], ["2022-11-14", 0.4968], ["2022-11-14", 0.4959], ["2022-11-15", 0.4951], ["2022-11-15", 0.4951], ["2022-11-15", 0.4954], ["2022-11-15", 0.4949], ["2022-11-15", 0.4949], ["2022-11-15", 0.5022], ["2022-11-15", 0.4973], ["2022-11-15", 0.4924], ["2022-11-15", 0.4944], ["2022-11-16", 0.4944], ["2022-11-16", 0.4876], ["2022-11-16", 0.4878], ["2022-11-16", 0.4802], ["2022-11-16", 0.4793], ["2022-11-16", 0.4776], ["2022-11-17", 0.4783], ["2022-11-17", 0.4783], ["2022-11-17", 0.4785], ["2022-11-17", 0.478], ["2022-11-18", 0.4741], ["2022-11-18", 0.4759], ["2022-11-18", 0.486], ["2022-11-18", 0.4788], ["2022-11-18", 0.4781], ["2022-11-18", 0.4881], ["2022-11-18", 0.4905], ["2022-11-18", 0.4871], ["2022-11-18", 0.4788], ["2022-11-18", 0.4764], ["2022-11-18", 0.4724], ["2022-11-18", 0.4569], ["2022-11-18", 0.4595], ["2022-11-18", 0.4543], ["2022-11-19", 0.4674], ["2022-11-19", 0.4669], ["2022-11-19", 0.4664], ["2022-11-19", 0.4795], ["2022-11-19", 0.4684], ["2022-11-19", 0.4686], ["2022-11-19", 0.4686]] | ["https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.14124", "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/stats?path=football", "https://alumni.harvard.edu/harvard-yale", "https://www.versussportssimulator.com/CFB/simulations/Harvard-vs-Yale", "https://www.ctinsider.com/sports/article/Yale-football-picked-fourth-in-Ivy-League-17359184.php", "https://ivyleague.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=2022", "https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2022/elo", "https://harvardpolitics.com/beyond-game-exploring-harvard-yale-rivalry/", "https://augustafreepress.com/college-football-is-so-predictable-why-do-we-still-care-so-much/", "https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.06327", "https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/fcs-college-football-preview-ivy-league/", "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/stats?path=football)--the", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/amp/", "https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/home-field-advantage-facts-and-fiction"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2204 |
<p>On 19 November 2022, the House of Representatives passed H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, that includes many high priority measures for the Biden administration (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/americas-economy-will-claw-its-way-back-to-the-pre-covid-trend" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/build-back-better-passes-house/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/house-passes-build-back-better-act-what-happens-next-in-the-senate.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/actions" target="_blank">Congress.gov</a>). An amended H.R.5376 becoming law would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-13 | Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, become law? | 2021-11-24 | [["2021-11-26", 0.4], ["2021-11-26", 0.35], ["2021-11-26", 0.6], ["2021-11-27", 0.6], ["2021-11-27", 0.61], ["2021-11-27", 0.65], ["2021-11-27", 0.675], ["2021-11-27", 0.675], ["2021-11-27", 0.65], ["2021-11-28", 0.65], ["2021-11-28", 0.65], ["2021-11-28", 0.61], ["2021-11-28", 0.6], ["2021-11-28", 0.6], ["2021-11-28", 0.6], ["2021-11-28", 0.6], ["2021-11-29", 0.59], ["2021-11-29", 0.6], ["2021-11-29", 0.605], ["2021-11-29", 0.605], ["2021-11-29", 0.6], ["2021-11-30", 0.6], ["2021-11-30", 0.6], ["2021-11-30", 0.6], ["2021-11-30", 0.6], ["2021-11-30", 0.56], ["2021-11-30", 0.555], ["2021-11-30", 0.56], ["2021-11-30", 0.55], ["2021-11-30", 0.55], ["2021-11-30", 0.555], ["2021-11-30", 0.56], ["2021-11-30", 0.555], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.57], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.57], ["2021-12-01", 0.59], ["2021-12-01", 0.57], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.55], ["2021-12-01", 0.555], ["2021-12-01", 0.555], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.58], ["2021-12-01", 0.6], ["2021-12-01", 0.58], ["2021-12-01", 0.56], ["2021-12-01", 0.58], ["2021-12-02", 0.59], ["2021-12-02", 0.575], ["2021-12-02", 0.56], ["2021-12-02", 0.575], ["2021-12-02", 0.56], ["2021-12-03", 0.56], ["2021-12-03", 0.55], ["2021-12-03", 0.6], ["2021-12-03", 0.595], ["2021-12-03", 0.6], ["2021-12-04", 0.595], ["2021-12-04", 0.6], ["2021-12-04", 0.64], ["2021-12-04", 0.63], ["2021-12-04", 0.61], ["2021-12-04", 0.6], ["2021-12-05", 0.6], ["2021-12-05", 0.6], ["2021-12-06", 0.6], ["2021-12-06", 0.6], ["2021-12-06", 0.575], ["2021-12-06", 0.55], ["2021-12-07", 0.55], ["2021-12-07", 0.55], ["2021-12-07", 0.55], ["2021-12-07", 0.55], ["2021-12-07", 0.55], 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0.215], ["2021-12-18", 0.2], ["2021-12-18", 0.2], ["2021-12-18", 0.2], ["2021-12-18", 0.2], ["2021-12-19", 0.17], ["2021-12-19", 0.17], ["2021-12-19", 0.17], ["2021-12-19", 0.165], ["2021-12-19", 0.16], ["2021-12-19", 0.16], ["2021-12-19", 0.15], ["2021-12-19", 0.15], ["2021-12-19", 0.145], ["2021-12-19", 0.125], ["2021-12-19", 0.145], ["2021-12-19", 0.15], ["2021-12-19", 0.15], ["2021-12-20", 0.14], ["2021-12-20", 0.12], ["2021-12-20", 0.1], ["2021-12-20", 0.08], ["2021-12-20", 0.06], ["2021-12-20", 0.06], ["2021-12-20", 0.05], ["2021-12-20", 0.055], ["2021-12-20", 0.045], ["2021-12-20", 0.045], ["2021-12-20", 0.04], ["2021-12-20", 0.035], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-21", 0.03], ["2021-12-22", 0.03], ["2021-12-23", 0.03], ["2021-12-23", 0.03], ["2021-12-23", 0.03], ["2021-12-23", 0.03], ["2021-12-24", 0.03], ["2021-12-24", 0.03], ["2021-12-24", 0.03], 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"https://www.congress.gov/days-in-session", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/inflation-concerns-mount-republicans-democrats-odds-build-back/story?id=81422341", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/house-passes-build-back-better-act-here-8749787/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/build-back-better-act-democrats-unlikely-to-pass-biden-social-spending-plan.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/joe-manchin-biden-build-back-better/index.html", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-build-back-better-act-was-passed-in-1182959/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-leaders-float-short-term-fix-fund-govt-into-jan-punchbowl-2021-11-29/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/house-democrats-biden-spending-bill-monthly-child-tax-credit-expires-2021-12?amp", "https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-voting-rights-joe-manchin-congress-d974a9fa170d32a609c96145a4076e65", "https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1472569121665695753", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/politics/manchin-child-tax-credit-biden-build-back-better/index.html", "https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/taxes/build-back-better-likely-to-pass-senate-later-this-month-analysts", "https://www.crefc.org/cre/content/News/Items/advocacy-items/_House_Passes_BBB_but_Senate_May_Not_Pass_before_Yearend.aspx", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/19/us/politics/manchin-build-back-better.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2306 |
<p>On 25 February 2022, President Joe Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/595879-biden-says-jackson-will-bring-uncompromising-integrity-to-supreme" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-04-07 | Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.125], ["2022-03-15", 0.25], ["2022-03-15", 0.275], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.275], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.45], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.39], ["2022-03-15", 0.48], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.55], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.615], ["2022-03-16", 0.63], ["2022-03-16", 0.615], ["2022-03-16", 0.63], ["2022-03-16", 0.665], ["2022-03-16", 0.665], ["2022-03-16", 0.63], ["2022-03-16", 0.615], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.615], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.615], ["2022-03-16", 0.63], 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"https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ketanji-brown-jacksons-confirmation-hearings-live-stream/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-senators-say-no-boycott-planned-for-jackson-committee-vote-11648148340", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/biden-scotus-nominee-filibuster.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/28/ketanji-brown-jackson-meeting-senators-nomination-judiciary/", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-set-judge-jacksons-confirmation-hearings-march-21/story?id=83207791", "https://twitter.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1504444695736463362", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/us/politics/manchin-jackson-supreme-court.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/supreme-court-pick-ketanji-brown-jackson-confirmation-what-happens-next.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/01/26/supreme-court-nominations/9228216002/", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/SupremeCourtNominations1789present.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nominations_to_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States", "https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-03-02/supreme-court-hearings-will-start-march-21-democrats-aim-for-jackson-confirmation-before-easter", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1508613375105933320", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60986427", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/politics/ketanji-brown-jackson-capitol-hill-meetings/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/politics/joe-manchin-ketanji-brown-jackson-vote/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomination_and_confirmation_to_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#:~:text=Typically%2C%20the%20nomination%20and%20confirmation,has%20been%20about%2068%20days", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2022/mar/21/biden-ukraine-latest-russia-war-supreme-court-ketanji-brown-jackson-testimony-senate"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2712 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by Turkstat (<a href="https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/inflation+data" target="_blank">Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey</a>).</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
</i></p><p>
</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-03 | Will the month-over-month percentage change in Turkey's consumer price index reach or exceed 3.5% in both January 2023 and February 2023? | 2023-01-16 | [["2023-01-17", 0.1], ["2023-01-17", 0.085], ["2023-01-17", 0.0567], ["2023-01-17", 0.0425], ["2023-01-17", 0.034], ["2023-01-17", 0.0283], ["2023-01-17", 0.0243], ["2023-01-17", 0.0213], ["2023-01-17", 0.02], ["2023-01-17", 0.021], ["2023-01-17", 0.02], ["2023-01-17", 0.0183], ["2023-01-17", 0.0169], ["2023-01-18", 0.0157], ["2023-01-18", 0.018], ["2023-01-18", 0.0213], ["2023-01-18", 0.0447], ["2023-01-18", 0.0425], ["2023-01-19", 0.0412], ["2023-01-19", 0.0389], ["2023-01-19", 0.0389], ["2023-01-22", 0.069], ["2023-01-22", 0.068], ["2023-01-23", 0.068], ["2023-01-23", 0.069], ["2023-01-25", 0.069], ["2023-01-25", 0.072], ["2023-01-27", 0.072], ["2023-01-28", 0.067], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-31", 0.031], ["2023-01-31", 0.031], ["2023-01-31", 0.0282], ["2023-01-31", 0.0191], ["2023-01-31", 0.0183], ["2023-02-01", 0.0183], ["2023-02-01", 0.0842], ["2023-02-01", 0.0931], ["2023-02-02", 0.1238], ["2023-02-02", 0.1693], ["2023-02-04", 0.1729], ["2023-02-04", 0.1786], ["2023-02-04", 0.1793], ["2023-02-05", 0.2136], ["2023-02-06", 0.2636], ["2023-02-06", 0.26], ["2023-02-06", 0.2529], ["2023-02-06", 0.2829], ["2023-02-06", 0.3121], ["2023-02-07", 0.3221], ["2023-02-07", 0.315], ["2023-02-07", 0.3164], ["2023-02-07", 0.3171], ["2023-02-08", 0.3171], ["2023-02-09", 0.3879], ["2023-02-09", 0.4593], ["2023-02-09", 0.4736], ["2023-02-09", 0.5214], ["2023-02-10", 0.5643], ["2023-02-11", 0.6207], ["2023-02-11", 0.62], ["2023-02-12", 0.6343], ["2023-02-13", 0.6914], ["2023-02-13", 0.6914], ["2023-02-13", 0.6864], ["2023-02-13", 0.7293], ["2023-02-14", 0.7286], ["2023-02-14", 0.7279], ["2023-02-14", 0.7457], ["2023-02-14", 0.7621], ["2023-02-15", 0.7693], ["2023-02-15", 0.7679], ["2023-02-15", 0.7193], ["2023-02-16", 0.7186], ["2023-02-16", 0.7171], ["2023-02-17", 0.7743], ["2023-02-17", 0.7386], ["2023-02-17", 0.7393], ["2023-02-17", 0.7429], ["2023-02-17", 0.7], ["2023-02-18", 0.7014], ["2023-02-18", 0.7014], ["2023-02-20", 0.6871], ["2023-02-20", 0.7121], ["2023-02-21", 0.7193], ["2023-02-21", 0.7229], ["2023-02-21", 0.7243], ["2023-02-22", 0.7271], ["2023-02-22", 0.7264], ["2023-02-22", 0.7157], ["2023-02-24", 0.7213], ["2023-02-24", 0.738], ["2023-02-24", 0.7407], ["2023-02-25", 0.764], ["2023-02-25", 0.758], ["2023-02-25", 0.8193], ["2023-02-25", 0.8273], ["2023-02-25", 0.828], ["2023-02-25", 0.8413], ["2023-02-26", 0.8813], ["2023-02-26", 0.8813], ["2023-02-26", 0.884], ["2023-02-26", 0.8907], ["2023-02-26", 0.885], ["2023-02-27", 0.8869], ["2023-02-27", 0.8888], ["2023-02-27", 0.89], ["2023-02-28", 0.9025], ["2023-02-28", 0.9119], ["2023-03-01", 0.9219], ["2023-03-01", 0.9219]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-07-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2012 |
<p>Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics to summer 2021 (<a href="https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo2020.org</a>). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994228843/pfizer-to-vaccinate-olympic-athletes-as-japan-mulls-extending-pandemic-restricti" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/news/japan-is-losing-support-to-host-the-olympics-from-athletes-and-citizens-as-covid-19-ravages-the-country/articleshow/82536254.cms" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-15 | Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will not commence in July 2021? | 2021-05-14 | [["2021-05-14", 0.9], ["2021-05-14", 0.5], ["2021-05-15", 0.465], ["2021-05-15", 0.25], ["2021-05-15", 0.15], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.2], ["2021-05-15", 0.2], ["2021-05-15", 0.2], ["2021-05-15", 0.2], ["2021-05-15", 0.2], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.09], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.115], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.1], 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"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cancel-the-tokyo-olympics-its-unlikely-heres-why/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/olympics/ahead-tokyo-olympics-japan-vaccination-rate-far-mark-n1272523", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/", "https://news.sky.com/story/tokyo-olympics-to-go-ahead-without-spectators-as-covid-cases-surge-12351656", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Wtzs4yFyus", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics", "https://www.americanpress.com/news/informer/the-informer-billions-of-dollars-at-stake-with-olympics/article_df38ef38-d1ba-11eb-9b53-8b0d43a1eb4e.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_Games_host_cities#:~:text=Since%20then%2C%20summer%20and%20winter,Games%20held%20in%2020%20cities", "https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/torch/route/", "https://deadline.com/2021/05/tokyo-olympics-japan-will-be-held-state-of-emergency-ioc-1234762448/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/tokyo-olympics-set-open-month-after-waves-covid-infection-opposition-n1271794", "https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393355512", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57240044", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57329388", "https://www.historyextra.com/period/modern/have-olympic-games-cancelled-postponed-tokyo-2020-coronavirus-pandemic/", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-Prime-Minister-Suga-faces-no-confidence-vote", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_Games_host_cities", "https://www.history.com/news/olympics-postponed-cancelled", "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jun/09/ioc-pledges-to-source-doctors-from-around-globe-to-keep-tokyo-olympics-safe", "https://knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/pandemics-recent-history", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57395010", "https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/", "https://www.nationalww2museum.org/media/press-releases/recalling-londons-lost-olympics-national-wwii-museum-highlights-history"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642 |
<p>Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite increasing international pressure and domestic instability (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/treasury-sanctions-entities-supporting-venezuelas-oil-sector.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://globalriskinsights.com/2020/05/venezuela-the-risk-to-the-maduro-regimes-stability/" target="_blank">Global Risk Insights</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/americas/venezuela-maduro-americans-failed-invasion-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><i>This question is a shorter-term companion of #<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1843</a></i>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-12", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-16", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-20", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.005], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN28M0Z5", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/2/son-of-venezuelas-maduro-emerges-runs-for-congress", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-exclusive/exclusive-biden-must-use-sanctions-as-leverage-against-venezuelas-maduro-u-s-envoy-says-idUSKBN28D346", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-arms-fighters-bolster-maduro-government-in-venezuela-u-s-says-11606946275", "https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-maduro-to-shut-all-powerful-legislative-assembly/a-55994728", "https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/12/18/all-carrot-no-stick-biden-seeks-negotiations-with-venezuela-s-maduro-and-his-allies", "https://tass.com/world/1241137", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55211149", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gam-COVID-Vac#/media/File:Sputnik_V_countries.svg"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2630 |
<p>US airlines are facing the prospect of pilot strikes as labor negotiations continue (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/us-airlines-pilot-contract-negotiations-turn-rocky.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/delta-pilots-authorize-strike-2022/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/business/united-pilots-contract-rejection/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, the major US airlines are American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. A strike need not include all airline pilots to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | Will there be a pilot strike at a major US airline before 1 March 2023? | 2022-11-18 | [["2022-11-18", 1.0], ["2022-11-18", 0.75], ["2022-11-18", 0.745], ["2022-11-18", 0.83], ["2022-11-18", 0.81], ["2022-11-18", 0.698], ["2022-11-18", 0.714], ["2022-11-18", 0.7183], ["2022-11-18", 0.7167], ["2022-11-19", 0.6143], ["2022-11-19", 0.555], ["2022-11-19", 0.4933], ["2022-11-19", 0.483], ["2022-11-19", 0.482], ["2022-11-19", 0.5027], ["2022-11-19", 0.515], ["2022-11-19", 0.5523], ["2022-11-19", 0.57], ["2022-11-19", 0.552], ["2022-11-20", 0.5175], ["2022-11-20", 0.4994], ["2022-11-20", 0.505], ["2022-11-20", 0.5039], ["2022-11-20", 0.5063], ["2022-11-20", 0.5042], ["2022-11-20", 0.4963], ["2022-11-21", 0.484], ["2022-11-21", 0.4686], ["2022-11-21", 0.4836], ["2022-11-21", 0.4814], ["2022-11-21", 0.4529], ["2022-11-22", 0.4652], ["2022-11-22", 0.4938], ["2022-11-22", 0.4732], ["2022-11-22", 0.4759], ["2022-11-22", 0.4363], ["2022-11-22", 0.4387], ["2022-11-23", 0.4113], ["2022-11-23", 0.4059], ["2022-11-23", 0.4076], ["2022-11-23", 0.3447], ["2022-11-23", 0.35], ["2022-11-23", 0.3375], ["2022-11-23", 0.35], ["2022-11-23", 0.3361], ["2022-11-24", 0.3417], ["2022-11-24", 0.3438], ["2022-11-24", 0.3419], ["2022-11-26", 0.2913], ["2022-11-26", 0.2847], ["2022-11-26", 0.2807], ["2022-11-26", 0.2793], ["2022-11-27", 0.29], ["2022-11-27", 0.3473], ["2022-11-27", 0.3256], ["2022-11-28", 0.3131], ["2022-11-28", 0.3288], ["2022-11-29", 0.3338], ["2022-11-30", 0.35], ["2022-11-30", 0.3441], ["2022-11-30", 0.3429], ["2022-12-02", 0.3418], ["2022-12-02", 0.3418], ["2022-12-02", 0.3412], ["2022-12-02", 0.3382], ["2022-12-03", 0.3347], ["2022-12-03", 0.3359], ["2022-12-03", 0.3353], ["2022-12-04", 0.3353], ["2022-12-04", 0.3294], ["2022-12-04", 0.3253], ["2022-12-04", 0.2959], ["2022-12-04", 0.2912], ["2022-12-05", 0.2906], ["2022-12-05", 0.29], ["2022-12-05", 0.2635], ["2022-12-05", 0.28], ["2022-12-06", 0.2778], ["2022-12-06", 0.2772], ["2022-12-06", 0.2467], ["2022-12-06", 0.2461], ["2022-12-06", 0.2628], ["2022-12-08", 0.2617], ["2022-12-09", 0.2611], ["2022-12-10", 0.2606], ["2022-12-10", 0.2383], ["2022-12-10", 0.2317], ["2022-12-11", 0.2311], ["2022-12-11", 0.215], ["2022-12-12", 0.2139], ["2022-12-13", 0.2026], ["2022-12-14", 0.2016], ["2022-12-14", 0.2011], ["2022-12-15", 0.2089], ["2022-12-15", 0.1905], ["2022-12-16", 0.19], ["2022-12-16", 0.1895], ["2022-12-16", 0.1811], ["2022-12-17", 0.1805], ["2022-12-17", 0.1774], ["2022-12-18", 0.1768], ["2022-12-20", 0.1763], ["2022-12-22", 0.1758], ["2022-12-23", 0.1605], ["2022-12-24", 0.1579], ["2022-12-25", 0.1574], ["2022-12-25", 0.1526], ["2022-12-26", 0.1511], ["2022-12-27", 0.1468], ["2022-12-28", 0.1384], ["2022-12-28", 0.1389], ["2022-12-28", 0.1337], ["2022-12-29", 0.1332], ["2022-12-30", 0.1332], ["2022-12-30", 0.1321], ["2022-12-31", 0.1311], ["2023-01-01", 0.1305], ["2023-01-03", 0.1295], ["2023-01-04", 0.1274], ["2023-01-05", 0.1263], ["2023-01-05", 0.1205], ["2023-01-05", 0.1205], ["2023-01-05", 0.1205], ["2023-01-06", 0.12], ["2023-01-07", 0.1195], ["2023-01-09", 0.1175], ["2023-01-10", 0.1145], ["2023-01-10", 0.112], ["2023-01-11", 0.1085], ["2023-01-11", 0.1065], ["2023-01-11", 0.1075], ["2023-01-12", 0.0795], ["2023-01-12", 0.078], ["2023-01-12", 0.0735], ["2023-01-12", 0.0735], ["2023-01-12", 0.0715], ["2023-01-15", 0.07], ["2023-01-17", 0.069], ["2023-01-20", 0.067], ["2023-01-22", 0.066], ["2023-01-22", 0.068], ["2023-01-23", 0.0675], ["2023-01-24", 0.0665], ["2023-01-24", 0.0465], ["2023-01-24", 0.046], ["2023-01-25", 0.041], ["2023-01-26", 0.0375], ["2023-01-26", 0.0365], ["2023-01-28", 0.0355], ["2023-01-28", 0.035], ["2023-01-29", 0.031], ["2023-01-29", 0.0295], ["2023-01-30", 0.02], ["2023-01-30", 0.0224], ["2023-02-01", 0.0214], ["2023-02-04", 0.0238], ["2023-02-05", 0.0238], ["2023-02-05", 0.0167], ["2023-02-05", 0.0138], ["2023-02-07", 0.0133], ["2023-02-08", 0.0124], ["2023-02-08", 0.0118], ["2023-02-10", 0.0114], ["2023-02-10", 0.0118], ["2023-02-13", 0.0114], ["2023-02-13", 0.0109], ["2023-02-18", 0.0105], ["2023-02-21", 0.01], ["2023-02-22", 0.0105], ["2023-02-22", 0.0105], ["2023-02-22", 0.0086], ["2023-02-23", 0.0055], ["2023-02-26", 0.0052], ["2023-02-26", 0.0074], ["2023-02-28", 0.0071], ["2023-02-28", 0.0071], ["2023-03-01", 0.0071]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/southwest-airlines-pilot-union-calls-strike-authorization-vote-2023-01-18/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/delta-gets-closer-to-labor-deal-with-pilots-union-says.html", "https://www.travelmarketreport.com/News/articles/United-Airlines-Boosts-Pilot-Pay-During-Labor-Negotiations", "https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/9/11/20860891/british-airways-history-worker-strikes", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/strikes-and-pay-raises-southwest-pilots-will-hold-strike-vote-deltas-could-see-a-pay-bump/ar-AA16wzef", "https://railroads.dot.gov/sites/fra.dot.gov/files/fra_net/1647/Railway%20Labor%20Act%20Overview.pdf", "https://youtu.be/ghEFf2CQypc", "http://www3.alpa.org/publications/Flying_The_Line_II/flying_the_line_II.html", "https://ble-t.org/news/split-decision-unions-for-railroad-engineers-and-conductors-take-different-routes-in-freight-rail-contract-ratification-vote/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/delta-offers-34-pay-raise-pilots-new-contract-2022-12-03/", "http://www3.alpa.org/publications/Flying_The_Line_1/flying_the_line_1.html", "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-03-652", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/american-airlines-workers-picket-over-contracts", "https://www.alpa.org/news-and-events/air-line-pilot-magazine/the-landing-railway-standards-act", "https://www.alpa.org/pages/search#q=strike&sort=relevancy", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560734-american-airlines-stock-dont-fear-labor-noise", "https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1137640529/railroads-freight-rail-unions-vote-contract-strike"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1739 |
<p>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, often called "Europe's Last Dictator," reported won the 9 August 2020 presidential election by a wide margin, but accusations of vote-rigging have turned to violent protests in the country (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/10/900903506/belarus-elections-end-with-landslide-winner-and-massive-protests" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/europes-last-dictator-the-rise-and-possible-fall-of-alexander-lukashenko/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-11-11 | Before 11 November 2020, will Alexander Lukashenko cease to be the president of Belarus? | 2020-08-11 | [["2020-08-11", 0.45], ["2020-08-11", 0.2], ["2020-08-11", 0.16], ["2020-08-11", 0.11], ["2020-08-11", 0.125], ["2020-08-11", 0.075], ["2020-08-11", 0.14], ["2020-08-11", 0.115], ["2020-08-11", 0.125], ["2020-08-11", 0.08], ["2020-08-12", 0.08], ["2020-08-12", 0.07], ["2020-08-12", 0.06], ["2020-08-12", 0.06], ["2020-08-12", 0.07], ["2020-08-12", 0.06], ["2020-08-12", 0.05], ["2020-08-12", 0.05], ["2020-08-12", 0.05], ["2020-08-12", 0.05], ["2020-08-12", 0.05], ["2020-08-12", 0.045], ["2020-08-13", 0.05], ["2020-08-13", 0.05], ["2020-08-13", 0.05], ["2020-08-13", 0.115], ["2020-08-13", 0.15], ["2020-08-13", 0.15], ["2020-08-13", 0.15], ["2020-08-13", 0.15], ["2020-08-13", 0.15], ["2020-08-13", 0.16], ["2020-08-14", 0.15], ["2020-08-14", 0.17], ["2020-08-14", 0.2], ["2020-08-14", 0.2], ["2020-08-14", 0.2], ["2020-08-14", 0.195], ["2020-08-14", 0.195], ["2020-08-14", 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True | 2021-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842 |
<p>The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 (<a href="http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html" target="_blank">Global Fire Emissions Database</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-02 | In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? | 2020-11-12 | [["2020-11-13", 0.885], ["2020-11-14", 0.825], ["2020-11-14", 0.85], ["2020-11-14", 0.825], ["2020-11-14", 0.825], ["2020-11-15", 0.79], ["2020-11-15", 0.79], ["2020-11-16", 0.64], ["2020-11-16", 0.625], ["2020-11-16", 0.55], ["2020-11-16", 0.75], ["2020-11-17", 0.575], ["2020-11-17", 0.675], ["2020-11-17", 0.6], ["2020-11-17", 0.6], ["2020-11-17", 0.65], ["2020-11-17", 0.65], ["2020-11-18", 0.65], ["2020-11-18", 0.65], ["2020-11-18", 0.65], ["2020-11-18", 0.65], ["2020-11-19", 0.65], ["2020-11-19", 0.65], ["2020-11-20", 0.6], ["2020-11-20", 0.575], ["2020-11-20", 0.625], ["2020-11-21", 0.65], ["2020-11-21", 0.6], ["2020-11-22", 0.625], ["2020-11-24", 0.65], ["2020-11-24", 0.65], ["2020-11-24", 0.65], ["2020-11-25", 0.655], ["2020-11-25", 0.655], ["2020-11-28", 0.69], 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0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911 |
<p>The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship" target="_blank">New Statesman</a>). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p></p><p><span style="font-size:14px;"><b>Versión en Español</b>:</span></p><p><span style="font-size:14px;"><b>Pregunta</b>: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?</span><br></p><p><span style="font-size:14px;"><b>Información adicional</b>: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship" target="_blank">New Statesman</a>). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.</span><br></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQs</a>) o envíenos un <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">correo electrónico</a>. Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">clique aquí</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-16 | Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? | 2021-01-22 | [["2021-01-22", 0.14], ["2021-01-22", 0.14], ["2021-01-22", 0.125], ["2021-01-22", 0.125], ["2021-01-22", 0.1], ["2021-01-22", 0.1], ["2021-01-22", 0.1], ["2021-01-22", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], 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"https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/25/statement-by-white-house-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-meeting-between-president-joe-biden-and-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russia-us-talks-positive-signal-putin-biden-summit-2021-05-20/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-11/putin-moves-to-quit-open-skies-as-russia-looks-to-biden-summit", "https://news.usni.org/2021/05/26/russian-navy-surveillance-ship-quietly-operating-off-hawaii", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-sanctions-waivers-could-help-normalise-russia-us-ties-moscow-says-2021-05-19/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/when-biden-meets-putin-old-foes-could-cool-off-not-reset-2021-05-13/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/", "https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/biden-putin-meeting-geneva-updates-intl/h_a158ae5157d56961711e35eb6dfbd8ad", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1225887", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-biden-meet-putin-140458968.html", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/052521-us-congress-unlikely-to-override-bidens-nord-stream-2-sanctions-waiver", "https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1396887935132241920", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us-russia-hold-arctic-talks-push-summit-2021-05-19/", "http://www.nytimes.com/", "https://nypost.com/2021/06/01/biden-wont-nix-putin-summit-over-meat-company-hack-white-house/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/12/politics/antony-blinken-russian-foreign-minister/index.html", "https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/biden-und-putin-kommen-zum-krisengipfel-in-die-schweiz-298652546366", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021/www.nytimes.com", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57244860"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1765 |
<p>As many states look to mail-in ballots to mitigate COVID-19 risks in November, the USPS has become a hot-button political issue in this election cycle (<a href="https://apnews.com/32700a8b49ddf5f7594d2271eb033c2e" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/22/905110578/senator-who-launched-usps-investigation-unsatisfied-by-dejoys-testimony" target="_blank">NPR</a>). House Democrats have twice passed legislation to bail out the USPS, with the Senate looking at other options (<a href="https://www.cnet.com/how-to/what-the-new-usps-bill-means-for-the-next-stimulus-bill/" target="_blank">Cnet</a>). For the purposes of this question, loans would count.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-03 | Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $5 billion in new direct financial assistance to the United States Postal Service (USPS) become law? | 2020-08-28 | [["2020-08-28", 0.75], ["2020-08-28", 0.8], ["2020-08-28", 0.75], ["2020-08-28", 0.8], ["2020-08-28", 0.8], ["2020-08-28", 0.8], ["2020-08-28", 0.75], ["2020-08-28", 0.8], ["2020-08-28", 0.85], 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True | 2022-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2240 |
<p>In 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/myanmar-will-tip-further-into-violence-and-misery" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/detainees-01032022212032.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html" target="_blank">Myanmar Times</a>) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Myanmar Constitution</a>). The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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0.0137], ["2022-09-26", 0.0136], ["2022-09-26", 0.0135], ["2022-09-26", 0.0133], ["2022-09-26", 0.0131], ["2022-09-27", 0.0122], ["2022-09-27", 0.0121], ["2022-09-28", 0.012], ["2022-09-28", 0.0119], ["2022-09-28", 0.0118], ["2022-09-28", 0.0113], ["2022-09-28", 0.0111], ["2022-09-28", 0.0114], ["2022-09-29", 0.0116], ["2022-09-29", 0.0115], ["2022-09-29", 0.0115], ["2022-09-29", 0.0116], ["2022-09-30", 0.0115], ["2022-09-30", 0.0115], ["2022-09-30", 0.0112], ["2022-09-30", 0.0111], ["2022-09-30", 0.011], ["2022-09-30", 0.0109], ["2022-10-01", 0.0108], ["2022-10-01", 0.0108], ["2022-10-01", 0.0107], ["2022-10-01", 0.0107]] | ["http://www.christianbjoernskov.com/bjoernskovrodedata/", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/now-is-the-time-to-recognize-the-genocide-in-burma/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/17/survival-at-any-cost-myanmar-generals-move-to-cement-power", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/06/24/myanmars-civil-war-is-becoming-bloodier-and-more-brutal", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/27/holdstronger-togethermyanmarrussiaparademilitary-relationship", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/01/08/a-growing-number-of-soldiers-are-deserting-the-burmese-army", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Thailand#1946_constitution", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1108762", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-chief-extend-emergency-rule-6-months-state-media-2022-08-01/", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RgQ3bQg9Gc4-VUnIKmt0G5hPvnbtieauyzyNvWGf44k/edit?usp=sharing", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/05/chaos-myanmar-chinas-nightmare", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/10/30/rebels-fighting-myanmars-junta-are-doing-better-than-expected", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJRX0KkLcoI", "https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2017/09/06/what-makes-military-dictators-transition-out-of-dictatorships/", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1109012", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/asia/myanmar-trial-coup-arrests.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/17/china-myanmar-military-regime-recognition-investment/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2299 | <p>The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). The question would close as of the day for which a daily estimate figure is below 38.5%, but only after confirming the daily estimate figure at least three days later.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-11 | Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating fall below 38.5%? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.015], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.015], ["2022-03-16", 0.02], ["2022-03-16", 0.025], ["2022-03-16", 0.02], ["2022-03-16", 0.03], ["2022-03-16", 0.04], ["2022-03-16", 0.04], ["2022-03-16", 0.04], ["2022-03-16", 0.04], ["2022-03-16", 0.045], ["2022-03-16", 0.06], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.05], ["2022-03-17", 0.045], ["2022-03-17", 0.045], ["2022-03-17", 0.045], ["2022-03-17", 0.04], ["2022-03-17", 0.03], ["2022-03-17", 0.035], ["2022-03-17", 0.04], ["2022-03-17", 0.04], ["2022-03-17", 0.04], 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question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1710 |
<p>On 20 July 2020, Egypt's parliament unanimously approved a troop deployment to a "western front," which some have interpreted to refer to Libya (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/egypt-legislators-vote-deploying-troops-libya-200720141515828.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/-decision-of-egyptian-parliament-declaration-of-war/1918072#" target="_blank">Anadolu Agency</a>). A lethal confrontation in Libyan airspace or territorial waters would count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ </a>or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-11-26 | Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces? | 2020-07-24 | [["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.125], ["2020-07-24", 0.15], ["2020-07-24", 0.2], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.2], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.255], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.345], ["2020-07-24", 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True | 2023-04-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2740 |
<p>Biden is expected to formally announce in early 2023 that he will run for reelection in 2024, though voter enthusiasm was low in January 2023 and his approval rating has been under 50% for much of his first term (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3802702-biden-readies-24-campaign-launch/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2023-01-27/bidens-reelection-campaign-lacks-one-thing-an-announcement-hes-running" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/voters-uncomfortable-biden-trump-2024-candidacies-rcna68236" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (<a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/P80000722/?cycle=2020&election_full=true&tab=filings" target="_blank">FEC - Biden Filings</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/25/biden-launch-1279838" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-04-25 | Will President Joe Biden register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 before 1 May 2023? | 2023-02-01 | [["2023-02-01", 0.85], ["2023-02-01", 0.425], ["2023-02-01", 0.4], ["2023-02-01", 0.5967], ["2023-02-01", 0.61], ["2023-02-01", 0.488], ["2023-02-01", 0.4617], ["2023-02-01", 0.4529], ["2023-02-01", 0.4713], ["2023-02-01", 0.4933], ["2023-02-01", 0.444], ["2023-02-01", 0.4127], ["2023-02-01", 0.4036], ["2023-02-02", 0.4533], ["2023-02-02", 0.4546], ["2023-02-02", 0.4721], ["2023-02-02", 0.474], ["2023-02-02", 0.485], ["2023-02-02", 0.4571], ["2023-02-02", 0.4511], ["2023-02-02", 0.4695], ["2023-02-02", 0.446], ["2023-02-02", 0.451], ["2023-02-02", 0.4759], ["2023-02-02", 0.4835], ["2023-02-02", 0.4633], ["2023-02-02", 0.4779], ["2023-02-02", 0.4771], ["2023-02-02", 0.4758], ["2023-02-02", 0.4568], ["2023-02-02", 0.4635], ["2023-02-02", 0.4815], ["2023-02-02", 0.4839], ["2023-02-02", 0.4845], ["2023-02-02", 0.4863], ["2023-02-02", 0.488], ["2023-02-02", 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0.8591], ["2023-04-25", 0.8591], ["2023-04-25", 0.8591], ["2023-04-25", 0.8594], ["2023-04-25", 0.8594], ["2023-04-25", 0.8715], ["2023-04-25", 0.8712], ["2023-04-25", 0.8812], ["2023-04-25", 0.8812]] | ["https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/dates-and-deadlines/2023-reporting-dates/april-quarterly-monthly-report-notice-presidential-committees-2023/", "https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/P40011678/1695462", "https://www.axios.com/2023/04/03/biden-2024-presidential-campaign-announcement-wait", "http://www.skynews.com/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/04/10/biden-says-he-plans-on-running-for-re-election/", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/04/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-reelection-2024/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-election-2024-president-democrats-trump-9c72115656855da89a41cac3f79aa65b", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/us/politics/biden-donors-2024.html", "https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/democrats-dont-even-like-joe-biden/", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/20/biden-reelection-bid-announced-video-next-week/11694763002/", "https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/P80000722/1702220/", "https://apnews.com/article/jill-biden-joe-biden-reelection-1659403d211d40212abbfef3b9847491", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-set-summit-with-top-fundraisers-ahead-expected-re-election-campaign-2023-04-19/", "https://apnews.com/article/biden-2024-presidential-reelection-campaign-announcement-trump-e64cd5649d9486291715388db3e8e386?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/07/politics/biden-2024-presidential-reelection-campaign-timeline/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-plans-make-re-election-announcement-next-week-washington-post-2023-04-20/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/22/biden-reelection-2024-rushed/", "https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/P80000722/?tab=filings#statements-of-candidacy", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/04/14/opinions/biden-rose-garden-strategy-2024-zelizer/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-he-will-run-re-election-2024-2023-04-14/", "https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/24/biden-fundraising-conference-call-1289644", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-lags-recent-democratic-presidents-declaring-re-election-campaign-2023-04-17/", "https://apnews.com/article/biden-2024-presidential-reelection-campaign-announcement-trump-e64cd5649d9486291715388db3e8e386", "https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/P80000722/?cycle=2020&election_full=true&tab=filings", "https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/joe-biden-2024-presidential-election-campaign"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-10-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2410 |
<p>After Elon Musk announced his bid to buy Twitter in April 2022, various developments have put the deal into question (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-twitter-for-54point20-a-share-saying-it-needs-to-be-transformed-as-private-company.html" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/tech/twitter-deal-on-hold-elon-musk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/news/3504465-sec-looms-over-musk-twitter-deal/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). When Twitter announced that it accepted Musk's offer, it stated that the transaction "is expected to close in 2022" (<a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000119312522117720/d319190dex991.htm" target="_blank">SEC - EDGAR</a>). The question would close early upon the official termination of the deal per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-28 | Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023? | 2022-06-03 | [["2022-06-03", 0.5], ["2022-06-03", 0.2], ["2022-06-03", 0.315], ["2022-06-03", 0.29333333333333333], ["2022-06-03", 0.26625], ["2022-06-03", 0.258], ["2022-06-03", 0.269], ["2022-06-03", 0.233], ["2022-06-03", 0.19], ["2022-06-03", 0.168], ["2022-06-03", 0.164], ["2022-06-04", 0.158], ["2022-06-04", 0.129], ["2022-06-04", 0.207], ["2022-06-04", 0.267], ["2022-06-04", 0.2881818181818182], ["2022-06-04", 0.2925], ["2022-06-04", 0.35615384615384615], ["2022-06-05", 0.345], ["2022-06-05", 0.3692857142857143], ["2022-06-05", 0.3413333333333333], ["2022-06-05", 0.348125], ["2022-06-06", 0.368125], ["2022-06-06", 0.3835294117647059], ["2022-06-06", 0.3738888888888889], ["2022-06-06", 0.3705555555555556], ["2022-06-06", 0.33444444444444443], ["2022-06-06", 0.3055555555555556], ["2022-06-06", 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"https://slate.com/technology/2022/10/elon-musk-twitter-deal-fall-apart.html", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/musk-says-excited-by-twitter-deal-despite-overpaying-2022-10-19/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elon-musk-seeks-stay-twitter-litigation-oct-28-deal-close-2022-10-06/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-proposes-closing-twitter-deal-on-original-terms-11664901454?mod=hp_lead_pos1", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter", "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-twitter-inc-technology-business-934a3b2429bed8cfeadfa6567a2e5256", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/musk-calls-himself-chief-twit-as-twitter-deal-nears-close", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal.html", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-twitter-deal-deadline-51666394238?noredirect=y", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22128214/exhibit-2-to-the-verified-complaint-filed-on-behalf-of-twitter-inc.pdf", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63137114", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/technology/twitter-employees-elon-musk.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.economist.com/business/2022/10/05/elon-musk-is-buying-twitter-really-probably", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/8-ways-the-elon-musk-twitter-saga-could-end.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share", "https://www.npr.org/2022/10/07/1127337447/heres-what-elon-musk-will-likely-do-with-twitter-if-he-buys-it", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/twitter-lbo-revives-12-5-billion-headache-for-wall-street-banks", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-begin-to-fund-13-billion-in-debt-backing-elon-musks-twitter-takeover-11666824554", "http://www.reuters.com/markets/us/how-will-elon-musk-pay-twitter-2022-10-07/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/twitter-trial-is-still-on-and-elon-musk-probably-deleted-some-signal-messages-judge-says/ar-AA12DGu1", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share?srnd=premium", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-opposes-elon-musk-motion-halt-litigation-2022-10-06/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/twitter-shares-halted-on-report-that-musk-plans-to-go-through-with-deal-at-54point20-a-share.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1629 |
<p>Like other countries across the globe, the UAE has experienced record job loss due to the pandemic, but some sectors remain in high demand (<a href="https://gulfnews.com/business/covid-19-job-cuts-will-add-to-uae-companies-costs-1.70768294" target="_blank">Gulf News</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by IndexMundi (<a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-arab-emirates/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS" target="_blank">IndexMundi</a>). Its highest value over the past 29 years was 3.12 in 2005.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.<br></p><p><span style="font-size:10px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how we resolve questions </span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how scores are calculated</span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | 2021-05-04 | Will the unemployment rate for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) exceed 5.00% in 2020? | 2020-05-21 | [["2020-05-21", 0.1], ["2020-05-21", 0.45], ["2020-05-21", 0.8], ["2020-05-21", 0.575], ["2020-05-21", 0.45], ["2020-05-21", 0.4], ["2020-05-21", 0.35], ["2020-05-21", 0.35], ["2020-05-21", 0.4], ["2020-05-21", 0.35], ["2020-05-22", 0.4], ["2020-05-22", 0.605], ["2020-05-22", 0.605], ["2020-05-22", 0.605], ["2020-05-22", 0.485], ["2020-05-22", 0.485], ["2020-05-22", 0.64], ["2020-05-23", 0.655], ["2020-05-23", 0.66], ["2020-05-23", 0.68], ["2020-05-23", 0.68], ["2020-05-23", 0.58], ["2020-05-23", 0.68], ["2020-05-24", 0.58], ["2020-05-24", 0.53], ["2020-05-24", 0.5], ["2020-05-24", 0.375], ["2020-05-24", 0.375], ["2020-05-24", 0.375], ["2020-05-25", 0.375], ["2020-05-25", 0.375], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-25", 0.5], ["2020-05-26", 0.525], ["2020-05-26", 0.525], ["2020-05-26", 0.525], ["2020-05-26", 0.56], ["2020-05-26", 0.55], ["2020-05-26", 0.55], ["2020-05-26", 0.56], ["2020-05-27", 0.56], ["2020-05-27", 0.56], ["2020-05-27", 0.525], ["2020-05-27", 0.475], ["2020-05-27", 0.475], ["2020-05-28", 0.525], ["2020-05-28", 0.5], ["2020-05-29", 0.45], ["2020-05-29", 0.45], ["2020-05-29", 0.475], ["2020-05-29", 0.45], ["2020-05-30", 0.435], ["2020-05-31", 0.425], ["2020-05-31", 0.425], ["2020-05-31", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.425], ["2020-06-01", 0.425], ["2020-06-02", 0.5], ["2020-06-02", 0.5], ["2020-06-03", 0.5], ["2020-06-04", 0.475], ["2020-06-04", 0.44], ["2020-06-04", 0.42], ["2020-06-05", 0.33], ["2020-06-05", 0.3], ["2020-06-06", 0.3], ["2020-06-06", 0.3], ["2020-06-07", 0.3], ["2020-06-07", 0.3], ["2020-06-08", 0.3], ["2020-06-08", 0.3], ["2020-06-08", 0.25], ["2020-06-08", 0.3], ["2020-06-09", 0.3], ["2020-06-09", 0.3], ["2020-06-10", 0.35], ["2020-06-10", 0.35], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.35], ["2020-06-11", 0.35], ["2020-06-11", 0.35], ["2020-06-12", 0.3], ["2020-06-12", 0.4], ["2020-06-12", 0.4], ["2020-06-12", 0.4], ["2020-06-12", 0.425], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.425], ["2020-06-12", 0.425], ["2020-06-12", 0.425], ["2020-06-12", 0.425], ["2020-06-13", 0.425], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-14", 0.4], ["2020-06-14", 0.425], ["2020-06-14", 0.45], ["2020-06-14", 0.45], ["2020-06-15", 0.45], ["2020-06-15", 0.46], ["2020-06-15", 0.58], ["2020-06-15", 0.66], ["2020-06-16", 0.54], ["2020-06-16", 0.54], ["2020-06-16", 0.46], ["2020-06-16", 0.46], ["2020-06-16", 0.46], ["2020-06-17", 0.35], ["2020-06-17", 0.35], ["2020-06-17", 0.35], ["2020-06-17", 0.325], ["2020-06-18", 0.305], ["2020-06-19", 0.3], ["2020-06-19", 0.3], ["2020-06-19", 0.3], ["2020-06-19", 0.3], ["2020-06-20", 0.3], ["2020-06-21", 0.3], ["2020-06-22", 0.3], ["2020-06-22", 0.3], ["2020-06-22", 0.3], ["2020-06-24", 0.25], ["2020-06-24", 0.25], ["2020-06-24", 0.275], ["2020-06-24", 0.25], ["2020-06-25", 0.25], ["2020-06-25", 0.22], ["2020-06-25", 0.2], ["2020-06-25", 0.2], ["2020-06-25", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-27", 0.2], ["2020-06-27", 0.2], ["2020-06-28", 0.2], ["2020-06-29", 0.2], ["2020-06-29", 0.2], ["2020-06-29", 0.2], ["2020-06-30", 0.2], ["2020-06-30", 0.17], ["2020-06-30", 0.17], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-02", 0.15], ["2020-07-03", 0.15], ["2020-07-03", 0.15], ["2020-07-04", 0.15], ["2020-07-04", 0.12], ["2020-07-04", 0.12], ["2020-07-06", 0.1], ["2020-07-06", 0.1], ["2020-07-06", 0.1], ["2020-07-07", 0.1], ["2020-07-07", 0.1], ["2020-07-07", 0.1], ["2020-07-08", 0.1], ["2020-07-09", 0.1], ["2020-07-09", 0.1], ["2020-07-09", 0.1], ["2020-07-10", 0.1], ["2020-07-10", 0.1], ["2020-07-10", 0.1], ["2020-07-10", 0.1], ["2020-07-11", 0.1], ["2020-07-12", 0.1], ["2020-07-13", 0.1], ["2020-07-14", 0.1], ["2020-07-15", 0.1], ["2020-07-15", 0.085], ["2020-07-15", 0.085], ["2020-07-15", 0.085], ["2020-07-15", 0.085], ["2020-07-15", 0.08], ["2020-07-16", 0.08], ["2020-07-16", 0.06], ["2020-07-16", 0.05], ["2020-07-16", 0.05], ["2020-07-17", 0.05], ["2020-07-17", 0.05], ["2020-07-18", 0.05], ["2020-07-19", 0.05], ["2020-07-19", 0.05], ["2020-07-20", 0.05], ["2020-07-21", 0.05], ["2020-07-21", 0.055], ["2020-07-21", 0.055], ["2020-07-23", 0.05], ["2020-07-23", 0.05], ["2020-07-23", 0.05], ["2020-07-23", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-25", 0.045], ["2020-07-26", 0.045], ["2020-07-26", 0.035], ["2020-07-27", 0.035], ["2020-07-29", 0.03], ["2020-07-29", 0.03], ["2020-07-29", 0.03], ["2020-07-29", 0.03], ["2020-07-30", 0.03], ["2020-07-31", 0.03], ["2020-07-31", 0.03], ["2020-07-31", 0.03], ["2020-07-31", 0.03], ["2020-07-31", 0.03], ["2020-08-01", 0.035], ["2020-08-02", 0.035], ["2020-08-02", 0.035], ["2020-08-02", 0.04], ["2020-08-03", 0.04], ["2020-08-03", 0.04], ["2020-08-03", 0.04], ["2020-08-04", 0.04], ["2020-08-05", 0.04], ["2020-08-05", 0.04], ["2020-08-06", 0.035], ["2020-08-06", 0.04], ["2020-08-06", 0.04], ["2020-08-06", 0.04], ["2020-08-07", 0.04], ["2020-08-11", 0.03], ["2020-08-11", 0.03], ["2020-08-11", 0.03], ["2020-08-12", 0.03], ["2020-08-12", 0.03], ["2020-08-14", 0.03], ["2020-08-14", 0.03], ["2020-08-16", 0.03], ["2020-08-16", 0.03], ["2020-08-16", 0.03], ["2020-08-16", 0.03], ["2020-08-17", 0.03], ["2020-08-17", 0.03], ["2020-08-17", 0.03], ["2020-08-19", 0.03], ["2020-08-19", 0.03], ["2020-08-19", 0.03], ["2020-08-21", 0.03], ["2020-08-22", 0.03], ["2020-08-23", 0.03], ["2020-08-25", 0.03], ["2020-08-26", 0.03], ["2020-08-26", 0.03], ["2020-08-28", 0.03], ["2020-08-31", 0.03], ["2020-09-02", 0.03], ["2020-09-02", 0.03], ["2020-09-02", 0.03], ["2020-09-03", 0.03], ["2020-09-04", 0.03], ["2020-09-05", 0.03], ["2020-09-06", 0.03], ["2020-09-08", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-09", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-12", 0.03], ["2020-09-14", 0.03], ["2020-09-14", 0.03], ["2020-09-16", 0.03], ["2020-09-17", 0.03], ["2020-09-17", 0.03], ["2020-09-18", 0.03], ["2020-09-20", 0.03], ["2020-09-21", 0.03], ["2020-09-21", 0.03], ["2020-09-21", 0.025], ["2020-09-22", 0.02], ["2020-09-23", 0.02], ["2020-09-24", 0.02], ["2020-09-24", 0.025], ["2020-09-26", 0.025], ["2020-09-27", 0.025], ["2020-09-28", 0.025], ["2020-09-29", 0.025], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-30", 0.02], ["2020-10-02", 0.02], ["2020-10-02", 0.02], ["2020-10-03", 0.02], ["2020-10-04", 0.02], ["2020-10-06", 0.02], ["2020-10-07", 0.02], ["2020-10-08", 0.02], ["2020-10-08", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-10", 0.02], ["2020-10-11", 0.02], ["2020-10-11", 0.02], ["2020-10-14", 0.02], ["2020-10-18", 0.02], ["2020-10-19", 0.02], ["2020-10-20", 0.02], ["2020-10-25", 0.02], ["2020-10-26", 0.02], ["2020-10-29", 0.02], ["2020-10-30", 0.02], ["2020-11-01", 0.02], ["2020-11-01", 0.02], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-10", 0.02], ["2020-11-14", 0.02], ["2020-11-15", 0.02], ["2020-11-17", 0.02], ["2020-11-17", 0.02], ["2020-11-21", 0.02], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-27", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.015], ["2020-12-07", 0.015], ["2020-12-08", 0.01], ["2020-12-09", 0.01], ["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-12", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-24", 0.01], ["2020-12-24", 0.01], ["2020-12-25", 0.01], ["2020-12-25", 0.01], ["2020-12-28", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2021-01-01", 0.01]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2892 |
<p>While American Airlines reached a tentative deal with its pilot union in May 2023, negotiations were still ongoing for United and Southwest (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/american-airlines-pilots-reach-preliminary-labor-agreement-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Under the procedures laid out in the Railway Labor Act, which also governs airlines, the parties to a labor negotiation enter a "cooling-off" period once the National Mediation Board determines that mediation has failed to produce an agreement and either or both parties reject binding arbitration (<a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mediation-between-freight-railroads-and-unions-fails-is-binding-arbitration-next" target="_blank">Freight Waves</a>, <a href="https://nmb.gov/NMB_Application/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/med-flowchart.pdf" target="_blank">NMB - Collective Bargaining Flow Chart</a>, <a href="https://nmb.gov/NMB_Application/index.php/press-releases/06-17-2022-press-release-nccc-and-twelve-unions-enter-cooling-off-period/" target="_blank">NMB - Press Release re Railroad Workers Negotiations</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "major airline" is Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will the US National Mediation Board (NMB) report that a "cooling off" period has begun for an airline pilot union and a major airline engaged in contract negotiations before 1 January 2024? | 2023-05-26 | [["2023-05-26", 1.0], ["2023-05-26", 0.985], ["2023-05-27", 0.99], ["2023-05-27", 0.805], ["2023-05-27", 0.754], ["2023-05-27", 0.795], ["2023-05-28", 0.6886], ["2023-05-31", 0.6929], ["2023-06-01", 0.6675], ["2023-06-03", 0.6825], ["2023-06-11", 0.6489], ["2023-06-12", 0.604], ["2023-06-16", 0.599], ["2023-06-23", 0.524], ["2023-06-26", 0.512], ["2023-06-28", 0.512], ["2023-06-29", 0.529], ["2023-07-12", 0.549], ["2023-07-13", 0.543], ["2023-07-15", 0.54], ["2023-07-23", 0.535], ["2023-07-31", 0.527], ["2023-08-05", 0.525], ["2023-08-11", 0.516], ["2023-08-23", 0.511], ["2023-09-02", 0.465], ["2023-09-06", 0.451], ["2023-09-06", 0.451], ["2023-09-07", 0.451], ["2023-09-08", 0.459], ["2023-09-08", 0.461], ["2023-09-14", 0.465], ["2023-09-17", 0.489], ["2023-09-18", 0.484], ["2023-09-19", 0.511], ["2023-09-19", 0.518], ["2023-09-23", 0.553], ["2023-09-23", 0.575], ["2023-09-23", 0.574], ["2023-09-24", 0.567], ["2023-09-30", 0.572], ["2023-09-30", 0.561], ["2023-10-12", 0.547], ["2023-10-13", 0.517], ["2023-10-13", 0.506], ["2023-10-14", 0.501], ["2023-10-14", 0.5], ["2023-10-17", 0.503], ["2023-10-18", 0.498], ["2023-10-21", 0.488], ["2023-10-21", 0.495], ["2023-10-23", 0.47], ["2023-10-23", 0.463], ["2023-10-28", 0.461], ["2023-11-01", 0.448], ["2023-11-01", 0.441], ["2023-11-04", 0.439], ["2023-11-04", 0.428], ["2023-11-08", 0.413], ["2023-11-08", 0.411], ["2023-11-11", 0.408], ["2023-11-14", 0.421], ["2023-11-16", 0.415], ["2023-11-18", 0.411], ["2023-11-22", 0.41], ["2023-11-22", 0.408], ["2023-11-22", 0.408], ["2023-11-22", 0.409], ["2023-11-25", 0.417], ["2023-11-26", 0.418], ["2023-11-29", 0.4], ["2023-12-01", 0.413], ["2023-12-01", 0.392], ["2023-12-02", 0.379], ["2023-12-02", 0.329], ["2023-12-03", 0.325], ["2023-12-03", 0.325], ["2023-12-03", 0.315], ["2023-12-08", 0.312], ["2023-12-08", 0.308], ["2023-12-09", 0.307], ["2023-12-14", 0.304], ["2023-12-15", 0.283], ["2023-12-15", 0.279], ["2023-12-16", 0.274], ["2023-12-17", 0.272], ["2023-12-18", 0.272], ["2023-12-18", 0.27], ["2023-12-20", 0.264], ["2023-12-21", 0.254], ["2023-12-22", 0.246], ["2023-12-26", 0.236], ["2023-12-28", 0.136], ["2023-12-28", 0.131], ["2023-12-30", 0.125], ["2023-12-30", 0.034], ["2023-12-31", 0.034], ["2024-01-01", 0.034]] | ["https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2023/08/29/why-when-and-where-american-airlines-southwest-airlines-workers-are-picketing-this-week/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/01/southwest-pilots-union-near-a-preliminary-labor-deal.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/southwest-pilots-union-lays-groundwork-for-potential-strike.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/united-airlines-pilots-union-votes-authorize-strike-vote-2023-06-03/", "https://twitter.com/swapapilots?lang=en", "https://www.thestreet.com/travel/american-and-southwest-airlines-facing-holiday-strikes", "https://simpleflying.com/mediation-board-denies-request-southwest-airlines-pilots-halt-negotiations/", "https://www.travelmarketreport.com/Air/articles/Southwest-Airlines-Strike-Seems-Imminent", "https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/transportation/southwest-airlines-swapa-pilots-strike-XUHCVBBSINHRPFKODVRSU37W6Q/?fbclid=IwAR2nXJ-UaqTaOVhZmuz8hKenfCeuUyvK8UEmXTGWNg6zhA0PV0Kr2wLr-dw_aem_AZ7nNc9769f5xREFUXf1AP9NCqcJSWHjQqtGBDxIRwIe2n_0mX3_tdy_YDgNsAEmuOw", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/american-airlines-pilots-union-says-it-has-agreement-contract-deal-improvements-2023-07-27/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/american-airlines-flight-attendants-ask-for-permission-to-strike/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051 |
<p>Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate (<a href="https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295" target="_blank">AP</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-07-11 | Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic? | 2021-06-24 | [["2021-06-24", 0.05], ["2021-06-24", 0.05], ["2021-06-25", 0.01], ["2021-06-25", 0.045], ["2021-06-25", 0.03], ["2021-06-25", 0.05], ["2021-06-25", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-27", 0.05], ["2021-06-27", 0.05], ["2021-06-27", 0.05], ["2021-06-28", 0.05], ["2021-06-28", 0.05], ["2021-06-28", 0.03], ["2021-06-28", 0.03], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.01], ["2021-06-29", 0.01], ["2021-06-30", 0.01], ["2021-06-30", 0.01], ["2021-06-30", 0.02], ["2021-06-30", 0.02], ["2021-06-30", 0.03], ["2021-06-30", 0.03], ["2021-07-01", 0.02], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.04], ["2021-07-02", 0.05], 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["2022-06-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-01", 0.0]] | ["https://gallagher.house.gov/media/press-releases/gallagher-introduces-bill-sanction-china-lack-covid-19-transparency", "https://theintercept.com/2021/09/06/new-details-emerge-about-coronavirus-research-at-chinese-lab/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/18/china-making-example-jailed-wuhan-covid-journalist-zhang-zhan-lawyer", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/china-opposes-u-s-threat-to-impose-sanctions-on-ethiopia", "https://barr.house.gov/2021/9/rep-barr-introduces-sanctions-bill-targeting-ccp-military-or-surveillance-companies", "https://www.marshall.senate.gov/press-releases/sen-marshall-releases-path-forward-on-covid-origins-investigation-and-holding-china-accountable/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/sanctions-trade-visas-what-biden-and-xi-may-discuss-at-summit", "https://supchina.com/2021/09/23/china-opposes-u-s-sanctions-on-ethiopia-and-afghanistan-as-humanitarian-crises-worsen/", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2021/item/2236-unclassified-summary-of-assessment-on-covid-19-origins", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/21/who-issues-call-for-experts-to-help-with-covid-origins-probe", "https://reut.rs/3A1TIWw", "https://bit.ly/2YOENBr", "https://wapo.st/3BdzVU2", "https://bit.ly/2VtKAe6", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58329980", "https://www.newsweek.com/mike-pompeo-pushes-joe-biden-hold-china-accountable-covid-1616131", "https://spectatorworld.com/topic/smoking-gun-anthony-fauci-china/", "http://bit.ly/3l5bjGM", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57950720", "https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(21)00991-0.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/indonesia-s-stock-index-jumps-toward-record-high-close", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59412139", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-receive-report-on-coronavirus-origins-but-challenges-persist-in-how-to-deal-with-china-11629825758", "https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/us-make-intelligence-covid-19-origins-public", "https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1497 |
<p>Guaidó and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaidó for "high treason" (<a href="https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-prosecutors-charge-guaido-high-treason-185544663.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-opposition-lawmakers-to-be-tried-for-treason/a-51701455" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-venezuela-maduro-1.5418058" target="_blank">CBC</a>). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-18", 0.55], ["2020-01-18", 0.8], ["2020-01-18", 0.625], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.415], ["2020-01-19", 0.475], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.55], ["2020-01-19", 0.55], 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["2020-12-30", 0.01], ["2020-12-31", 0.01], ["2021-01-01", 0.01], ["2021-01-01", 0.01]] | ["https://www.businessinsider.com/elliott-abrams-iranian-missiles-in-venezuela-will-be-dealt-with-2020-12", "https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20201204-venezuela-s-guaido-risks-political-irrelevance-as-maduro-eyes-poll-victory", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/06/juan-guaido-prepares-lose-seat-venezuela-freedom/", "https://www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22152597/venezuela-election-juan-guaido-nicolas-maduro"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2255 |
<p>In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/surgeons-perform-first-successful-transplant-pig-heart-human-patient-rcna11687" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2022/01/28/recipient-of-pig-heart-undergoing-physical-therapy-for-first-time-university-of-maryland-says/" target="_blank">CBS Baltimore</a>). For the purposes of this question, an "organ" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (<a href="https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/11750-organ-donation-and-transplantation" target="_blank">Cleveland Clinic</a>). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/697212/EPRS_ATA(2022)697212_EN.pdf.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024? | 2022-02-04 | [["2022-02-04", 0.0], ["2022-02-04", 0.5], ["2022-02-04", 0.3333333333333333], ["2022-02-04", 0.2525], ["2022-02-05", 0.202], ["2022-02-05", 0.22], ["2022-02-05", 0.1957142857142857], ["2022-02-05", 0.1957142857142857], ["2022-02-05", 0.19428571428571428], ["2022-02-05", 0.18], ["2022-02-05", 0.16333333333333333], ["2022-02-05", 0.1622222222222222], ["2022-02-05", 0.246], ["2022-02-06", 0.336], ["2022-02-06", 0.406], ["2022-02-06", 0.495], ["2022-02-06", 0.583], ["2022-02-06", 0.578], ["2022-02-07", 0.648], ["2022-02-07", 0.704], ["2022-02-07", 0.733], ["2022-02-07", 0.635], ["2022-02-07", 0.551], ["2022-02-07", 0.511], ["2022-02-07", 0.481], ["2022-02-07", 0.415], ["2022-02-07", 0.413], 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0.1895], ["2023-12-21", 0.1879], ["2023-12-22", 0.1877], ["2023-12-25", 0.1877], ["2023-12-26", 0.1795], ["2023-12-26", 0.1774], ["2023-12-26", 0.1746], ["2023-12-26", 0.1743], ["2023-12-26", 0.1902], ["2023-12-26", 0.1743], ["2023-12-26", 0.1741], ["2023-12-27", 0.1741], ["2023-12-28", 0.1714], ["2023-12-28", 0.1702], ["2023-12-29", 0.1702], ["2023-12-29", 0.1631], ["2023-12-30", 0.1611], ["2023-12-31", 0.1611], ["2024-01-01", 0.1611]] | ["https://theconversation.com/organs-from-genetically-engineered-pigs-may-help-shorten-the-transplant-wait-list-175893", "https://www.europa-uni.de/en/forschung/institut/institut_ize/3_schwerpunkte/3_bioethik_medizinethik/Chimbrids_Zusammenfassung_f__r_IZE-Internetseite.pdf", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-found-in-pig-heart-used-in-human-transplant/ar-AAWY3IE", "https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/feb/03/german-researchers-to-breed-pigs-for-human-heart-transplants", "https://ec.europa.eu/health/archive/ph_risk/committees/scmp/documents/out38_en.pdf", "https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-clears-first-xenotransplantation-trial-skin-cells-derived-from-genetically-engineered", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955470X20300586", "https://open.spotify.com/episode/3mlSOcV00dmheW9dKC3wX5?si=7WsF548bSouNeYec68G4hw&context=spotify%3Aplaylist%3A6p21dRudS9FmcyGvKWPq2R", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/health/heart-transplant-pig-bennett.html", "https://www.npr.org/2022/03/09/1085420836/pig-heart-transplant", "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230104005102/en/Makana%E2%84%A2-Issued-Important-Patent-in-Europe-With-Hopes-of-Accelerating-Xenotransplantation-Worldwide", "https://theprint.in/health/how-cornea-implant-made-from-pig-skin-helped-20-people-see-again-in-trial-held-in-india-iran/1086181/", "https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/711777/The%20Cultural,%20Spiritual%20and%20Ethical%20Aspects%20of%20Xenotransplantation%20Animal-to-Human%20Transplantation%20a%20Report%20on%20Xenotransplantation%20by%20Toi%20Te%20Taiao%20the%20Bioethics%20Council.pdf?sequence=1", "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/08/230816114156.htm", "https://www.wired.com/story/heres-whats-next-for-pig-organ-transplants/", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0085253817300753", "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268352741_Potential_benefits_and_risks_of_clinical_", "https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/news/2022/University-of-Maryland-School-of-Medicine-Faculty-Scientists-and-Clinicians-Perform-Historic-First-Successful-Transplant-of-Porcine-Heart-into-Adult-Human-with-End-Stage-Heart-Disease.html", "https://www.news-medical.net/news/20230329/Johns-Hopkins-Medicine-surgeons-to-receive-24214-million-to-advance-xenotransplantation-research.aspx", "https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20230607/xenotransplantation-are-we-ready-for-clinical-trials-in-humans", "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19202537/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/karius-egenesis-partner-help-accelerate-120000357.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/deepteejain/2023/03/09/this-founder-is-getting-closer-to-solving-the-organ-shortage/?sh=592d2f014347", "https://apnews.com/article/transplant-pig-human-animal-organs-xenotransplant-a28c56bb67314d11d9e8e34763f3ad34", "https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/24921-eu-funds-project-on-chimera-and-hybrid-research"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2259 |
<p>Amid high tensions with Ukraine and the West, Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO freeze its expansion further into Eastern Europe (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-crisis-russia-history-nato-expansion" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://intellinews.com/us-letter-rejects-russia-s-no-nato-enlargement-demand-as-normandy-four-talks-resume-233126/" target="_blank">IntelliNews</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/why-nato-has-become-flash-point-russia-ukraine" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). For the purposes of this question, formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country 1) reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Enlargement</a>), 2) receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37356.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Membership Action Plan</a>), or 3) entering into “Intensified Dialogue” (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Enlargement</a>, see "Aspirant countries").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-29 | Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process? | 2022-02-04 | [["2022-02-04", 0.5], ["2022-02-04", 0.125], ["2022-02-04", 0.4], ["2022-02-04", 0.15], ["2022-02-04", 0.15], ["2022-02-04", 0.38], ["2022-02-05", 0.505], ["2022-02-05", 0.375], ["2022-02-05", 0.375], ["2022-02-05", 0.225], ["2022-02-05", 0.225], ["2022-02-05", 0.225], ["2022-02-06", 0.2], ["2022-02-06", 0.195], ["2022-02-06", 0.195], ["2022-02-07", 0.195], ["2022-02-07", 0.195], ["2022-02-07", 0.17], ["2022-02-07", 0.15], ["2022-02-07", 0.15], ["2022-02-07", 0.15], ["2022-02-07", 0.135], ["2022-02-08", 0.075], ["2022-02-08", 0.05], ["2022-02-08", 0.04], ["2022-02-08", 0.04], ["2022-02-08", 0.03], ["2022-02-08", 0.03], ["2022-02-08", 0.03], ["2022-02-08", 0.04], ["2022-02-08", 0.04], ["2022-02-08", 0.05], ["2022-02-08", 0.05], ["2022-02-08", 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"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkey-not-positive-on-finland-sweden-joining-nato-erdogan", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10824207/Sweden-officially-signs-NATO-application-Putin-shows-weakening-resolve.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/15/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-victorious-chord-battle-ukraine-wins-eurovision-mariupol-putin-g7-biden-nato-finland-ve", "https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/05/30/recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-nato-expansion", "https://yle.fi/news/3-12446441", "https://www-cumhuriyet-com-tr.translate.goog/turkiye/son-dakika-erdogandan-finlandiyanin-nato-adimina-iliskin-aciklama-teror-orgutlerinin-misafirhanesi-1935597?_x_tr_sl=tr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/12/sweden-is-following-finlands-lead-on-joining-nato?gclid=Cj0KCQjwyYKUBhDJARIsAMj9lkGUqE2QdiD-rFt4jbr3F8nxptx2HCnDBQQSc7c8NbagFsqf2SnHcVIaAtYpEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/optimism-grows-over-breakthrough-on-finland-sweden-nato-membership-in-madrid/ar-AAYXNnr", "https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/164002/VN_2022_20.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-submit-application-join-nato-2022-05-18/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider-outsider_theory_of_employment", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm", "https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/164093", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-turkey-moscow-sweden-49d5297a0dff391e5de9f24f6b3a390a", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/world/europe/finland-sweden-nato-membership.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-finland-hand-nato-applications-wednesday-swedish-pm-says-2022-05-17/", "https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/03/nuclear-bunkers-for-all-switzerland-is-ready-as-international-tensions-mount", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CXVu_DeB4wo", "https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220518-nato-s-nordic-expansion-turkish-objections-an-opportunity-for-erdogan-to-air-nato-grievances", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-finland-nato-idCAKBN2NI36O"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-06-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659 |
<p>Amid an increase in ballistic missile tests in 2022, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (<a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/11/5/23440456/korean-missile-launches-nuclear-tests-china-russia-japan" target="_blank">Vox</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-see-us-firm-response-to-expected-north-korean-nuke-test/6818034.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-10 | Between 9 December 2022 and 9 June 2023, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device? | 2022-12-08 | [["2022-12-09", 0.23], ["2022-12-09", 0.12], ["2022-12-09", 0.125], ["2022-12-09", 0.1533], ["2022-12-09", 0.1267], ["2022-12-09", 0.345], ["2022-12-09", 0.466], ["2022-12-09", 0.43], ["2022-12-09", 0.4071], ["2022-12-09", 0.3688], ["2022-12-09", 0.4056], ["2022-12-09", 0.432], ["2022-12-10", 0.4227], ["2022-12-10", 0.4183], ["2022-12-10", 0.4054], ["2022-12-10", 0.4371], ["2022-12-10", 0.4327], ["2022-12-10", 0.4333], ["2022-12-10", 0.4438], ["2022-12-10", 0.4459], ["2022-12-10", 0.4559], ["2022-12-10", 0.4444], ["2022-12-10", 0.445], ["2022-12-10", 0.4489], ["2022-12-10", 0.463], ["2022-12-10", 0.4433], ["2022-12-10", 0.4423], ["2022-12-11", 0.4235], ["2022-12-11", 0.435], ["2022-12-11", 0.4354], ["2022-12-11", 0.418], ["2022-12-12", 0.4269], ["2022-12-12", 0.4122], 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0.374], ["2022-12-30", 0.373], ["2022-12-31", 0.3855], ["2022-12-31", 0.386], ["2023-01-01", 0.399], ["2023-01-02", 0.397], ["2023-01-02", 0.414], ["2023-01-02", 0.4145], ["2023-01-02", 0.3976], ["2023-01-03", 0.4048], ["2023-01-03", 0.4048], ["2023-01-04", 0.4024], ["2023-01-04", 0.4029], ["2023-01-04", 0.4033], ["2023-01-04", 0.3914], ["2023-01-04", 0.3759], ["2023-01-05", 0.36], ["2023-01-05", 0.3709], ["2023-01-05", 0.3723], ["2023-01-05", 0.375], ["2023-01-06", 0.3964], ["2023-01-06", 0.3964], ["2023-01-06", 0.3968], ["2023-01-07", 0.3741], ["2023-01-07", 0.3643], ["2023-01-08", 0.3648], ["2023-01-08", 0.3735], ["2023-01-08", 0.3735], ["2023-01-09", 0.3896], ["2023-01-10", 0.39], ["2023-01-12", 0.4161], ["2023-01-12", 0.4165], ["2023-01-14", 0.417], ["2023-01-14", 0.4174], ["2023-01-14", 0.4157], ["2023-01-16", 0.4417], ["2023-01-16", 0.4422], ["2023-01-17", 0.4426], ["2023-01-18", 0.4409], ["2023-01-18", 0.4413], ["2023-01-18", 0.4413], ["2023-01-18", 0.4435], ["2023-01-19", 0.4254], ["2023-01-19", 0.4238], ["2023-01-20", 0.4242], ["2023-01-21", 0.4242], ["2023-01-22", 0.4246], ["2023-01-23", 0.425], ["2023-01-24", 0.4258], ["2023-01-25", 0.4217], ["2023-01-25", 0.4233], ["2023-01-25", 0.4254], ["2023-01-25", 0.4258], ["2023-01-25", 0.4258], ["2023-01-26", 0.4113], ["2023-01-28", 0.4108], ["2023-01-28", 0.3896], ["2023-01-29", 0.3913], ["2023-01-29", 0.3776], ["2023-01-29", 0.378], ["2023-01-30", 0.3956], ["2023-01-31", 0.3924], ["2023-01-31", 0.3844], ["2023-02-02", 0.4008], ["2023-02-02", 0.3976], ["2023-02-02", 0.396], ["2023-02-02", 0.394], ["2023-02-03", 0.4304], ["2023-02-03", 0.4244], ["2023-02-04", 0.4216], ["2023-02-04", 0.4212], ["2023-02-04", 0.4212], ["2023-02-05", 0.4208], ["2023-02-09", 0.4288], ["2023-02-12", 0.4136], ["2023-02-12", 0.412], ["2023-02-12", 0.3888], ["2023-02-13", 0.3758], ["2023-02-13", 0.3831], ["2023-02-13", 0.3808], ["2023-02-14", 0.3673], ["2023-02-14", 0.3596], ["2023-02-15", 0.3577], ["2023-02-16", 0.3573], ["2023-02-17", 0.3554], ["2023-02-17", 0.3308], ["2023-02-17", 0.3269], ["2023-02-18", 0.325], ["2023-02-18", 0.3235], ["2023-02-19", 0.3215], ["2023-02-19", 0.3235], ["2023-02-19", 0.3285], ["2023-02-19", 0.3096], ["2023-02-19", 0.2935], ["2023-02-20", 0.2954], ["2023-02-20", 0.295], ["2023-02-20", 0.2969], ["2023-02-20", 0.3165], ["2023-02-21", 0.3154], ["2023-02-21", 0.3338], ["2023-02-21", 0.3396], ["2023-02-21", 0.34], ["2023-02-22", 0.3485], ["2023-02-25", 0.3454], ["2023-02-25", 0.3437], ["2023-02-26", 0.3411], ["2023-02-27", 0.3393], ["2023-02-27", 0.3389], ["2023-02-27", 0.3374], ["2023-03-01", 0.3356], ["2023-03-02", 0.3504], ["2023-03-03", 0.3556], ["2023-03-03", 0.3522], ["2023-03-04", 0.3467], ["2023-03-06", 0.3374], ["2023-03-06", 0.337], ["2023-03-07", 0.3359], ["2023-03-07", 0.3333], ["2023-03-08", 0.3322], ["2023-03-09", 0.3307], ["2023-03-09", 0.3244], ["2023-03-10", 0.3233], ["2023-03-11", 0.3211], ["2023-03-12", 0.3219], ["2023-03-14", 0.3367], ["2023-03-15", 0.3363], ["2023-03-15", 0.3367], ["2023-03-15", 0.3404], ["2023-03-15", 0.3404], ["2023-03-17", 0.3393], ["2023-03-17", 0.3459], ["2023-03-17", 0.3307], ["2023-03-19", 0.3341], ["2023-03-20", 0.3341], ["2023-03-23", 0.3352], ["2023-03-24", 0.3352], ["2023-03-25", 0.3326], ["2023-03-27", 0.3326], ["2023-03-27", 0.3304], ["2023-03-27", 0.3304], ["2023-03-28", 0.3333], ["2023-03-28", 0.337], ["2023-03-28", 0.3426], ["2023-03-31", 0.3596], ["2023-04-01", 0.3519], ["2023-04-01", 0.3444], ["2023-04-01", 0.3332], ["2023-04-01", 0.3375], ["2023-04-02", 0.3243], ["2023-04-03", 0.3236], ["2023-04-03", 0.3182], ["2023-04-05", 0.3175], ["2023-04-06", 0.3121], ["2023-04-06", 0.3121], ["2023-04-07", 0.31], ["2023-04-08", 0.3089], ["2023-04-08", 0.3125], ["2023-04-09", 0.3107], ["2023-04-09", 0.3118], ["2023-04-09", 0.3171], ["2023-04-10", 0.3062], ["2023-04-10", 0.3034], ["2023-04-10", 0.3024], ["2023-04-10", 0.3017], ["2023-04-11", 0.2997], ["2023-04-12", 0.2997], ["2023-04-14", 0.3241], ["2023-04-14", 0.3276], ["2023-04-16", 0.3266], ["2023-04-16", 0.3231], ["2023-04-16", 0.3038], ["2023-04-17", 0.3014], ["2023-04-17", 0.2762], ["2023-04-17", 0.2769], ["2023-04-17", 0.2769], ["2023-04-18", 0.2752], ["2023-04-18", 0.2731], ["2023-04-18", 0.2693], ["2023-04-18", 0.2641], ["2023-04-18", 0.2676], ["2023-04-19", 0.2631], ["2023-04-19", 0.2614], ["2023-04-19", 0.2617], ["2023-04-19", 0.2579], ["2023-04-19", 0.2517], ["2023-04-19", 0.2521], ["2023-04-19", 0.2493], ["2023-04-19", 0.2431], ["2023-04-19", 0.2421], ["2023-04-20", 0.2497], ["2023-04-20", 0.2528], ["2023-04-20", 0.2514], ["2023-04-21", 0.2503], ["2023-04-21", 0.2443], ["2023-04-21", 0.24], ["2023-04-22", 0.2423], ["2023-04-24", 0.2327], ["2023-04-26", 0.2277], ["2023-04-26", 0.226], ["2023-04-26", 0.2223], ["2023-04-27", 0.2233], ["2023-04-27", 0.223], ["2023-04-27", 0.2223], ["2023-04-28", 0.219], ["2023-04-28", 0.2173], ["2023-04-29", 0.2183], ["2023-04-29", 0.2167], ["2023-04-29", 0.2153], ["2023-04-30", 0.2143], ["2023-05-02", 0.2137], ["2023-05-02", 0.2137], ["2023-05-02", 0.213], ["2023-05-03", 0.2047], ["2023-05-03", 0.1897], ["2023-05-03", 0.187], ["2023-05-03", 0.1833], ["2023-05-03", 0.1817], ["2023-05-04", 0.1793], ["2023-05-04", 0.176], ["2023-05-04", 0.1727], ["2023-05-04", 0.1713], ["2023-05-04", 0.1693], ["2023-05-04", 0.1667], ["2023-05-05", 0.179], ["2023-05-05", 0.1767], ["2023-05-05", 0.175], ["2023-05-06", 0.1867], ["2023-05-07", 0.195], ["2023-05-07", 0.1917], ["2023-05-07", 0.19], ["2023-05-07", 0.1893], ["2023-05-08", 0.1873], ["2023-05-08", 0.184], ["2023-05-08", 0.1747], ["2023-05-09", 0.1743], ["2023-05-09", 0.1753], ["2023-05-09", 0.1753], ["2023-05-09", 0.1753], ["2023-05-09", 0.1763], ["2023-05-10", 0.1743], ["2023-05-10", 0.1693], ["2023-05-10", 0.169], ["2023-05-10", 0.169], ["2023-05-11", 0.1583], ["2023-05-11", 0.158], ["2023-05-11", 0.1553], ["2023-05-12", 0.1553], ["2023-05-12", 0.1547], ["2023-05-12", 0.154], ["2023-05-12", 0.153], ["2023-05-12", 0.1481], ["2023-05-13", 0.1474], ["2023-05-13", 0.1458], ["2023-05-13", 0.1455], ["2023-05-14", 0.1439], ["2023-05-14", 0.1432], ["2023-05-15", 0.1416], ["2023-05-15", 0.141], ["2023-05-15", 0.1397], ["2023-05-16", 0.1352], ["2023-05-16", 0.1361], ["2023-05-16", 0.1365], ["2023-05-16", 0.1355], ["2023-05-16", 0.1342], ["2023-05-16", 0.1297], ["2023-05-17", 0.1294], ["2023-05-17", 0.1284], ["2023-05-17", 0.1271], ["2023-05-17", 0.1271], ["2023-05-17", 0.1255], ["2023-05-17", 0.1239], ["2023-05-17", 0.1223], ["2023-05-18", 0.1226], ["2023-05-18", 0.1194], ["2023-05-18", 0.1177], ["2023-05-18", 0.1158], ["2023-05-19", 0.1113], ["2023-05-19", 0.1097], ["2023-05-19", 0.1084], ["2023-05-19", 0.1074], ["2023-05-20", 0.1065], ["2023-05-20", 0.1068], ["2023-05-20", 0.1068], ["2023-05-20", 0.1052], ["2023-05-20", 0.1052], ["2023-05-20", 0.1048], ["2023-05-20", 0.0994], ["2023-05-20", 0.0926], ["2023-05-21", 0.0906], ["2023-05-21", 0.065], ["2023-05-22", 0.0644], ["2023-05-22", 0.065], ["2023-05-22", 0.0638], ["2023-05-22", 0.0634], ["2023-05-22", 0.0609], ["2023-05-23", 0.0597], ["2023-05-23", 0.0544], ["2023-05-23", 0.045], ["2023-05-24", 0.0438], ["2023-05-24", 0.0428], ["2023-05-24", 0.0403], ["2023-05-25", 0.04], ["2023-05-26", 0.04], ["2023-05-26", 0.0394], ["2023-05-27", 0.0384], ["2023-05-27", 0.0384], ["2023-05-27", 0.0359], ["2023-05-28", 0.035], ["2023-05-28", 0.035], ["2023-05-28", 0.035], ["2023-05-28", 0.0347], ["2023-05-29", 0.0341], ["2023-05-29", 0.0328], ["2023-05-29", 0.0319], ["2023-05-29", 0.0316], ["2023-05-29", 0.0306], ["2023-05-30", 0.0303], ["2023-05-30", 0.0297], ["2023-05-31", 0.0303], ["2023-05-31", 0.03], ["2023-05-31", 0.0297], ["2023-05-31", 0.0248], ["2023-05-31", 0.0242], ["2023-06-01", 0.0236], ["2023-06-01", 0.0236], ["2023-06-01", 0.0255], ["2023-06-01", 0.0239], ["2023-06-01", 0.0239], ["2023-06-02", 0.0233], ["2023-06-02", 0.0191], ["2023-06-02", 0.0188], ["2023-06-02", 0.0185], ["2023-06-02", 0.0145], ["2023-06-02", 0.0145], ["2023-06-03", 0.0139], ["2023-06-03", 0.0142], ["2023-06-03", 0.0127], ["2023-06-03", 0.0121], ["2023-06-04", 0.0124], ["2023-06-04", 0.0127], ["2023-06-04", 0.0124], ["2023-06-04", 0.0121], ["2023-06-05", 0.0121], ["2023-06-05", 0.0118], ["2023-06-05", 0.0118], ["2023-06-05", 0.0118], ["2023-06-05", 0.0115], ["2023-06-06", 0.0112], ["2023-06-06", 0.0109], ["2023-06-06", 0.0106], ["2023-06-07", 0.0106], ["2023-06-07", 0.0103], ["2023-06-08", 0.0103], ["2023-06-08", 0.01], ["2023-06-09", 0.0097], ["2023-06-09", 0.0056], ["2023-06-09", 0.005], ["2023-06-10", 0.0047], ["2023-06-10", 0.0047]] | ["https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=177656", "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10472", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5biRwXwYNs", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-introductory-statement-to-the-board-of-governors-6-march-2023", "https://blog.ucsusa.org/sulgiye-park/why-would-north-korea-conduct-another-nuclear-test/", "https://www.38north.org/?topic=satellite-analysis", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea", "https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/hwasong-04182023090718.html", "https://beyondparallel.csis.org/punggye-ri-update-new-activity-at-tunnel-no-4/", "https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/monitoring-technologies/seismic-monitoringI", "https://solo.stanford.edu/opportunities/nuclear-threat-initiative-3", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65085542", "https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=177660", "https://www.38north.org/2023/04/yongbyon-nuclear-scientific-research-center-expansion-work-continues/", "https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/monitoring-technologies/seismic-monitoring", "https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-general-warns-north-korea-developing-key-nuclear-capability-2023-4", "https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/north-korea-criticises-us--south-korea-military-drills-as--nuclear-blackmail-/48524510", "https://theprint.in/world/north-korea-says-it-tested-a-new-solid-fuel-icbm-warns-of-extreme-horror/1517715/#:~:text=A%20South", "https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=177653", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/north-koreas-kim-yo-jong-says-u.s.-south-korea-agreement-will-worsen-insecurity-kcna", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-considers-landing-bombers-in-South-Korea-Air-Force-general", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65085542.amp", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/radiation-fears-after-earthquakes-at-north-korean-nuclear-test-site-cdwl2wqq2", "https://en.yna.co.kr/view/GYH20230427001400315?section=image/graphics", "https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/04/how-kim-jong-uns-fears-shape-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2551 |
<p>Amid Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some officials in Georgia are calling for a referendum on reclaiming the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia lost in Russia's invasion in 2008 (<a href="https://odessa-journal.com/georgia-proposes-to-hold-a-referendum-and-ask-if-georgians-want-war-with-russia/" target="_blank">Odessa Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/03/armenia-azerbaijan-and-georgias-balancing-act-over-russias-war-ukraine" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/Russia_Recognizes_Abkhazia_South_Ossetia/1193932.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/03/31/1088555609/russia-war-ukraine-georgia-2008" target="_blank">NPR</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-17 | Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities? | 2022-09-16 | [["2022-09-16", 0.1], ["2022-09-16", 0.06], ["2022-09-16", 0.04], ["2022-09-16", 0.0675], ["2022-09-16", 0.054], ["2022-09-16", 0.2117], ["2022-09-16", 0.1929], ["2022-09-16", 0.2938], ["2022-09-16", 0.2867], ["2022-09-16", 0.2878], ["2022-09-17", 0.27], ["2022-09-17", 0.2773], ["2022-09-17", 0.2818], ["2022-09-17", 0.2583], ["2022-09-17", 0.2575], ["2022-09-17", 0.2431], ["2022-09-17", 0.2386], ["2022-09-17", 0.2357], ["2022-09-17", 0.2233], ["2022-09-17", 0.21], ["2022-09-17", 0.2094], ["2022-09-17", 0.2], ["2022-09-17", 0.2183], ["2022-09-17", 0.2147], ["2022-09-17", 0.214], ["2022-09-17", 0.2514], ["2022-09-17", 0.2405], ["2022-09-17", 0.23], ["2022-09-17", 0.2296], ["2022-09-17", 0.2313], ["2022-09-18", 0.2321], ["2022-09-18", 0.2228], ["2022-09-19", 0.2142], ["2022-09-19", 0.243], ["2022-09-19", 0.2433], ["2022-09-19", 0.2629], ["2022-09-19", 0.2404], ["2022-09-19", 0.2424], ["2022-09-19", 0.2407], ["2022-09-20", 0.34], ["2022-09-20", 0.325], ["2022-09-20", 0.3406], ["2022-09-20", 0.31], ["2022-09-20", 0.3271], ["2022-09-21", 0.3286], ["2022-09-21", 0.325], ["2022-09-22", 0.3307], ["2022-09-23", 0.3143], ["2022-09-23", 0.32], ["2022-09-23", 0.3129], ["2022-09-24", 0.3486], ["2022-09-25", 0.3543], ["2022-09-27", 0.3773], ["2022-09-27", 0.3273], ["2022-09-28", 0.3694], ["2022-09-28", 0.3669], ["2022-09-28", 0.3756], ["2022-09-29", 0.375], ["2022-09-30", 0.3281], ["2022-09-30", 0.3206], ["2022-09-30", 0.3259], ["2022-10-01", 0.3218], ["2022-10-02", 0.3612], ["2022-10-02", 0.3471], ["2022-10-03", 0.3953], ["2022-10-04", 0.3947], ["2022-10-06", 0.3924], ["2022-10-07", 0.3982], ["2022-10-07", 0.4171], ["2022-10-07", 0.4053], ["2022-10-07", 0.4041], ["2022-10-08", 0.4053], ["2022-10-08", 0.3828], ["2022-10-08", 0.3506], ["2022-10-10", 0.3478], ["2022-10-10", 0.2983], ["2022-10-11", 0.2978], ["2022-10-11", 0.2939], ["2022-10-12", 0.2939], ["2022-10-12", 0.2928], ["2022-10-13", 0.2922], ["2022-10-13", 0.2867], ["2022-10-13", 0.2774], ["2022-10-14", 0.2784], ["2022-10-14", 0.2753], ["2022-10-14", 0.2684], ["2022-10-16", 0.2689], ["2022-10-16", 0.2653], ["2022-10-17", 0.2653], ["2022-10-18", 0.2647], ["2022-10-18", 0.2626], ["2022-10-19", 0.2616], ["2022-10-21", 0.2611], ["2022-10-22", 0.2611], ["2022-10-23", 0.2258], ["2022-10-24", 0.2253], ["2022-10-24", 0.2247], ["2022-10-27", 0.2242], ["2022-10-28", 0.2237], ["2022-10-29", 0.2205], ["2022-10-30", 0.22], ["2022-11-01", 0.2184], ["2022-11-02", 0.2242], ["2022-11-03", 0.2232], ["2022-11-05", 0.2226], ["2022-11-05", 0.2226], ["2022-11-05", 0.2226], ["2022-11-05", 0.2184], ["2022-11-08", 0.2184], ["2022-11-08", 0.2179], ["2022-11-10", 0.2145], ["2022-11-12", 0.211], ["2022-11-12", 0.2105], ["2022-11-13", 0.21], ["2022-11-14", 0.2095], ["2022-11-14", 0.16], ["2022-11-15", 0.1595], ["2022-11-15", 0.159], ["2022-11-16", 0.1515], ["2022-11-17", 0.162], ["2022-11-17", 0.1615], ["2022-11-19", 0.161], ["2022-11-20", 0.1495], ["2022-11-21", 0.149], ["2022-11-21", 0.148], ["2022-11-22", 0.143], ["2022-11-22", 0.139], ["2022-11-23", 0.1385], ["2022-11-24", 0.1375], ["2022-11-25", 0.137], ["2022-11-26", 0.137], ["2022-11-27", 0.1365], ["2022-11-28", 0.1355], ["2022-11-29", 0.135], ["2022-11-29", 0.1305], ["2022-11-30", 0.13], ["2022-12-01", 0.1295], ["2022-12-03", 0.129], ["2022-12-03", 0.124], ["2022-12-04", 0.1235], ["2022-12-04", 0.121], ["2022-12-04", 0.1205], ["2022-12-04", 0.1195], ["2022-12-05", 0.1145], ["2022-12-05", 0.114], ["2022-12-06", 0.1135], ["2022-12-08", 0.113], ["2022-12-08", 0.1125], ["2022-12-08", 0.111], ["2022-12-08", 0.1095], ["2022-12-09", 0.107], ["2022-12-10", 0.1065], ["2022-12-11", 0.1065], ["2022-12-12", 0.106], ["2022-12-12", 0.1055], ["2022-12-12", 0.1035], ["2022-12-12", 0.1025], ["2022-12-13", 0.0976], ["2022-12-14", 0.0971], ["2022-12-14", 0.0967], ["2022-12-14", 0.0962], ["2022-12-16", 0.0957], ["2022-12-16", 0.0952], ["2022-12-17", 0.1095], ["2022-12-18", 0.1081], ["2022-12-18", 0.1076], ["2022-12-19", 0.1071], ["2022-12-20", 0.1067], ["2022-12-21", 0.1062], ["2022-12-22", 0.1036], ["2022-12-23", 0.1032], ["2022-12-23", 0.1027], ["2022-12-25", 0.1023], ["2022-12-27", 0.1023], ["2022-12-27", 0.1014], ["2022-12-27", 0.1009], ["2022-12-29", 0.0986], ["2022-12-29", 0.0982], ["2022-12-29", 0.0977], ["2022-12-29", 0.0823], ["2022-12-31", 0.0818], ["2022-12-31", 0.0814], ["2023-01-01", 0.0787], ["2023-01-02", 0.0783], ["2023-01-03", 0.0757], ["2023-01-03", 0.0725], ["2023-01-03", 0.0721], ["2023-01-04", 0.0717], ["2023-01-04", 0.0713], ["2023-01-04", 0.0704], ["2023-01-04", 0.0696], ["2023-01-05", 0.0675], ["2023-01-06", 0.0671], ["2023-01-06", 0.0658], ["2023-01-06", 0.0667], ["2023-01-06", 0.0654], ["2023-01-07", 0.065], ["2023-01-08", 0.0638], ["2023-01-08", 0.0633], ["2023-01-08", 0.0613], ["2023-01-09", 0.0608], ["2023-01-10", 0.0604], ["2023-01-10", 0.0667], ["2023-01-11", 0.0663], ["2023-01-12", 0.0658], ["2023-01-13", 0.0654], ["2023-01-13", 0.0633], ["2023-01-14", 0.0633], ["2023-01-14", 0.0629], ["2023-01-15", 0.0625], ["2023-01-15", 0.0621], ["2023-01-16", 0.0608], ["2023-01-17", 0.0604], ["2023-01-18", 0.06], ["2023-01-19", 0.0596], ["2023-01-20", 0.0592], ["2023-01-21", 0.0592], ["2023-01-21", 0.0588], ["2023-01-23", 0.0588], ["2023-01-23", 0.0588], ["2023-01-23", 0.0584], ["2023-01-25", 0.0464], ["2023-01-25", 0.046], ["2023-01-25", 0.0452], ["2023-01-28", 0.0448], ["2023-01-28", 0.0444], ["2023-01-28", 0.044], ["2023-01-29", 0.0436], ["2023-01-29", 0.0432], ["2023-01-30", 0.0428], ["2023-02-01", 0.0424], ["2023-02-03", 0.0408], ["2023-02-04", 0.0415], ["2023-02-05", 0.0408], ["2023-02-07", 0.0404], ["2023-02-08", 0.0335], ["2023-02-08", 0.0296], ["2023-02-08", 0.0292], ["2023-02-09", 0.0246], ["2023-02-10", 0.0242], ["2023-02-14", 0.0238], ["2023-02-14", 0.0192], ["2023-02-15", 0.0177], ["2023-02-15", 0.0173], ["2023-02-18", 0.0173], ["2023-02-21", 0.0169], ["2023-02-22", 0.0169], ["2023-02-22", 0.0169], ["2023-02-22", 0.0135], ["2023-02-23", 0.013], ["2023-02-24", 0.0074], ["2023-02-26", 0.007], ["2023-02-26", 0.0067], ["2023-02-28", 0.0064], ["2023-03-03", 0.0064], ["2023-03-03", 0.0064], ["2023-03-03", 0.0064], ["2023-03-04", 0.0062], ["2023-03-04", 0.0062], ["2023-03-04", 0.0045], ["2023-03-04", 0.0043], ["2023-03-05", 0.0037], ["2023-03-06", 0.0037], ["2023-03-06", 0.004], ["2023-03-07", 0.004], ["2023-03-07", 0.004], ["2023-03-07", 0.0043], ["2023-03-08", 0.0043], ["2023-03-08", 0.004], ["2023-03-08", 0.0037], ["2023-03-09", 0.0037], ["2023-03-10", 0.0037], ["2023-03-10", 0.0033], ["2023-03-11", 0.0033], ["2023-03-13", 0.0083], ["2023-03-14", 0.0083], ["2023-03-14", 0.0073], ["2023-03-14", 0.0074], ["2023-03-15", 0.0074], ["2023-03-16", 0.0074], ["2023-03-16", 0.0026], ["2023-03-17", 0.0026]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-with-cash-georgia-booms-russians-flee-putins-war-2022-11-05/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718 |
<p>In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/" target="_blank">Brookings Institute</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 10 December 2021</span>: Since an expansion of the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used has taken the form of legislation, the question would only close once that legislation, passed by the Senate, becomes law.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-13 | Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? | 2020-07-31 | [["2020-07-31", 0.11], ["2020-07-31", 0.11], ["2020-07-31", 0.35], ["2020-07-31", 0.475], ["2020-07-31", 0.38], ["2020-07-31", 0.38], ["2020-07-31", 0.375], ["2020-07-31", 0.34], ["2020-07-31", 0.29], ["2020-08-01", 0.355], ["2020-08-01", 0.39], ["2020-08-01", 0.4], ["2020-08-01", 0.39], ["2020-08-01", 0.4], ["2020-08-01", 0.44], ["2020-08-01", 0.495], ["2020-08-01", 0.58], ["2020-08-02", 0.6], ["2020-08-02", 0.55], ["2020-08-02", 0.5], ["2020-08-02", 0.55], ["2020-08-02", 0.6], ["2020-08-03", 0.6], ["2020-08-03", 0.63], ["2020-08-03", 0.66], ["2020-08-03", 0.655], ["2020-08-03", 0.65], ["2020-08-03", 0.625], ["2020-08-04", 0.6], ["2020-08-04", 0.6], ["2020-08-04", 0.55], ["2020-08-05", 0.55], ["2020-08-06", 0.55], ["2020-08-06", 0.55], ["2020-08-07", 0.55], ["2020-08-08", 0.55], ["2020-08-09", 0.545], ["2020-08-11", 0.49], ["2020-08-11", 0.47], ["2020-08-13", 0.445], ["2020-08-16", 0.425], ["2020-08-16", 0.425], ["2020-08-17", 0.44], ["2020-08-17", 0.445], ["2020-08-18", 0.445], ["2020-08-18", 0.43], ["2020-08-19", 0.45], ["2020-08-19", 0.475], ["2020-08-20", 0.485], ["2020-08-21", 0.49], ["2020-08-23", 0.495], ["2020-08-24", 0.5], ["2020-08-28", 0.495], ["2020-08-30", 0.495], ["2020-09-01", 0.49], ["2020-09-03", 0.49], ["2020-09-03", 0.46], ["2020-09-04", 0.46], ["2020-09-06", 0.46], ["2020-09-08", 0.48], ["2020-09-08", 0.5], ["2020-09-09", 0.515], ["2020-09-11", 0.515], ["2020-09-11", 0.55], ["2020-09-12", 0.55], ["2020-09-13", 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["2021-03-05", 0.15], ["2021-03-06", 0.15], ["2021-03-07", 0.15], ["2021-03-08", 0.16], ["2021-03-08", 0.16], ["2021-03-09", 0.16], ["2021-03-10", 0.15], ["2021-03-10", 0.16], ["2021-03-13", 0.15], ["2021-03-15", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.17], ["2021-03-18", 0.17], ["2021-03-18", 0.17], ["2021-03-20", 0.18], ["2021-03-22", 0.16], ["2021-03-23", 0.16], ["2021-03-23", 0.16], ["2021-03-24", 0.16], ["2021-03-25", 0.17], ["2021-03-25", 0.17], ["2021-03-27", 0.17], ["2021-03-28", 0.16], ["2021-03-28", 0.15], ["2021-03-30", 0.15], ["2021-04-01", 0.15], ["2021-04-03", 0.15], ["2021-04-07", 0.15], ["2021-04-08", 0.15], ["2021-04-09", 0.15], ["2021-04-11", 0.15], ["2021-04-11", 0.14], ["2021-04-11", 0.14], ["2021-04-15", 0.14], ["2021-04-18", 0.14], ["2021-04-19", 0.15], ["2021-04-21", 0.15], ["2021-04-24", 0.15], ["2021-04-28", 0.15], ["2021-04-29", 0.13], ["2021-04-29", 0.15], ["2021-04-29", 0.13], ["2021-04-30", 0.13], ["2021-05-02", 0.125], ["2021-05-03", 0.11], ["2021-05-03", 0.1], ["2021-05-05", 0.1], ["2021-05-07", 0.1], ["2021-05-09", 0.1], ["2021-05-12", 0.1], ["2021-05-13", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-17", 0.09], ["2021-05-17", 0.09], ["2021-05-18", 0.1], ["2021-05-24", 0.1], ["2021-05-26", 0.1], ["2021-05-27", 0.08], ["2021-05-28", 0.08], ["2021-06-01", 0.075], ["2021-06-02", 0.07], ["2021-06-03", 0.07], ["2021-06-04", 0.07], ["2021-06-06", 0.07], ["2021-06-07", 0.07], ["2021-06-08", 0.07], ["2021-06-10", 0.07], ["2021-06-10", 0.075], ["2021-06-12", 0.065], ["2021-06-14", 0.065], ["2021-06-15", 0.055], ["2021-06-18", 0.055], ["2021-06-19", 0.05], ["2021-06-19", 0.05], ["2021-06-20", 0.05], ["2021-06-22", 0.05], ["2021-06-22", 0.05], ["2021-06-23", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-28", 0.05], ["2021-06-30", 0.05], ["2021-07-02", 0.05], ["2021-07-06", 0.05], ["2021-07-08", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-11", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.045], ["2021-07-13", 0.04], ["2021-07-14", 0.04], ["2021-07-15", 0.04], ["2021-07-17", 0.035], ["2021-07-20", 0.035], ["2021-07-21", 0.03], ["2021-07-23", 0.03], ["2021-07-26", 0.03], ["2021-07-27", 0.03], ["2021-07-29", 0.03], ["2021-07-31", 0.03], ["2021-08-05", 0.03], ["2021-08-08", 0.03], ["2021-08-10", 0.03], ["2021-08-12", 0.03], ["2021-08-13", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-17", 0.03], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-20", 0.02], ["2021-08-22", 0.02], ["2021-08-25", 0.02], ["2021-08-29", 0.02], ["2021-08-29", 0.02], ["2021-08-31", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-04", 0.02], ["2021-09-04", 0.02], ["2021-09-06", 0.02], ["2021-09-09", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-12", 0.02], ["2021-09-13", 0.02], ["2021-09-16", 0.02], ["2021-09-20", 0.02], ["2021-09-21", 0.02], ["2021-09-24", 0.02], ["2021-09-26", 0.02], ["2021-09-27", 0.02], ["2021-09-27", 0.02], ["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.02], ["2021-10-06", 0.02], ["2021-10-06", 0.02], ["2021-10-06", 0.02], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-07", 0.025], ["2021-10-07", 0.03], ["2021-10-07", 0.03], ["2021-10-08", 0.03], ["2021-10-09", 0.025], ["2021-10-10", 0.03], ["2021-10-11", 0.03], ["2021-10-12", 0.02], ["2021-10-14", 0.02], ["2021-10-18", 0.02], ["2021-10-21", 0.02], ["2021-10-22", 0.02], ["2021-10-22", 0.02], ["2021-10-24", 0.02], ["2021-10-25", 0.02], ["2021-10-27", 0.02], ["2021-10-29", 0.02], ["2021-10-31", 0.02], ["2021-11-03", 0.02], ["2021-11-04", 0.02], ["2021-11-05", 0.02], ["2021-11-07", 0.02], ["2021-11-09", 0.02], ["2021-11-14", 0.02], ["2021-11-14", 0.02], ["2021-11-16", 0.02], ["2021-11-17", 0.01], ["2021-11-17", 0.01], ["2021-11-18", 0.01], ["2021-11-18", 0.01], ["2021-11-20", 0.01], ["2021-11-23", 0.01], ["2021-11-26", 0.01], ["2021-11-27", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-04", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01]] | ["https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/10-6-2021/Mind-on-Manchin/", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/08/biden-filibuster-voting-rights-senate-523917?nname=politico-nightly&nid=00000170-c000-da87-af78-e185fa700000&nrid=0000016a-db08-d33a-a5ee-dfaff5c60001&nlid=2670445&fbclid=IwAR0_rSQJxUAWUuiIXP6MqNFp_JKo7PnOcDX8vtGUBjCOL745tRmM2VhxKtc", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/21/manchin-republicans-end-filibuster/", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/585192-senate-passes-bill-to-avoid-filibuster-on-debt-ceiling-hike", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_by_exception#Process", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/06/kyrsten-sinema-filibuster-betrayed-arizona-voting-rights", "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-explained", "https://newrepublic.com/article/164735/manchin-filibuster-carve-out-senate", "https://www.carper.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/how-a-bill-becomes-a-law", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105-will-legal-restrictions-on-the-number-of-people-who-can-meet-indoors-be-imposed-in-england-before-1-january-2022", "https://www.politico.com/video/2021/10/27/warner-on-filibuster-i-would-carve-out-an-exception-around-voting-rights-387439", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/576039-in-blistering-letter-to-biden-mcconnell-vows-gop-wont-help-raise-debt-ceiling-in", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-podcast-philip-tetlock.html", "https://twitter.com/SenatePPG/status/1468767413428699136", "https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/10-6-2021/schumers-response/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/sen-kaine-on-next-moves-for-voting-reform-after-gop-blocked-dem-measure", "https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1468310354015010822", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/06/republicans-filibuster-debt-limit-515355", "https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/10-6-2021/the-sinemanch-back-channel/", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610/text", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/voting-rights-manchin-senate/2021/10/20/caba5168-31a6-11ec-a1e5-07223c50280a_story.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/07/us/politics/debt-ceiling-deal-congress.html", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/575631-democrats-signal-they-will-accept-mcconnell-offer"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-04-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1401 | <p>Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">BLS (Release)</a>, <a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" target="_blank">BLS (Data)</a>). If applicable, the question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm" target="_blank">BLS (Schedule)</a>). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-04-03 | Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020? | 2019-11-15 | [["2019-11-15", 0.425], ["2019-11-15", 0.425], ["2019-11-15", 0.385], ["2019-11-16", 0.51], ["2019-11-16", 0.51], ["2019-11-16", 0.435], ["2019-11-16", 0.435], ["2019-11-16", 0.52], ["2019-11-17", 0.645], ["2019-11-17", 0.675], ["2019-11-17", 0.52], ["2019-11-17", 0.585], ["2019-11-17", 0.625], ["2019-11-17", 0.535], ["2019-11-17", 0.46], ["2019-11-18", 0.47], ["2019-11-18", 0.45], ["2019-11-18", 0.365], ["2019-11-18", 0.375], ["2019-11-18", 0.3], ["2019-11-19", 0.45], ["2019-11-19", 0.45], ["2019-11-19", 0.385], ["2019-11-20", 0.285], ["2019-11-20", 0.285], ["2019-11-20", 0.32], ["2019-11-20", 0.285], ["2019-11-21", 0.385], ["2019-11-21", 0.39], ["2019-11-22", 0.33], ["2019-11-22", 0.34], ["2019-11-22", 0.34], ["2019-11-24", 0.4], ["2019-11-24", 0.375], ["2019-11-25", 0.42], ["2019-11-25", 0.44], ["2019-11-25", 0.44], ["2019-11-26", 0.42], ["2019-11-26", 0.44], ["2019-11-26", 0.46], ["2019-11-26", 0.48], ["2019-11-26", 0.48], ["2019-11-26", 0.5], ["2019-11-26", 0.48], ["2019-11-27", 0.545], ["2019-11-27", 0.59], ["2019-11-28", 0.6], ["2019-11-29", 0.5], ["2019-11-30", 0.5], ["2019-11-30", 0.545], ["2019-12-01", 0.62], ["2019-12-02", 0.62], ["2019-12-03", 0.545], ["2019-12-03", 0.525], ["2019-12-04", 0.5], ["2019-12-04", 0.55], ["2019-12-04", 0.55], ["2019-12-05", 0.55], ["2019-12-05", 0.51], ["2019-12-07", 0.5], ["2019-12-07", 0.5], ["2019-12-07", 0.475], ["2019-12-08", 0.475], ["2019-12-08", 0.45], ["2019-12-09", 0.5], ["2019-12-09", 0.5], ["2019-12-09", 0.5], ["2019-12-11", 0.5], ["2019-12-11", 0.5], ["2019-12-11", 0.5], ["2019-12-12", 0.475], ["2019-12-12", 0.475], ["2019-12-13", 0.45], ["2019-12-15", 0.4], ["2019-12-16", 0.425], ["2019-12-16", 0.385], ["2019-12-17", 0.385], ["2019-12-17", 0.385], ["2019-12-18", 0.35], ["2019-12-19", 0.35], ["2019-12-19", 0.355], ["2019-12-20", 0.35], ["2019-12-22", 0.35], ["2019-12-22", 0.355], ["2019-12-23", 0.35], ["2019-12-23", 0.35], ["2019-12-27", 0.35], ["2019-12-28", 0.3], ["2019-12-28", 0.35], ["2019-12-29", 0.25], ["2019-12-29", 0.25], ["2019-12-30", 0.25], ["2019-12-31", 0.25], ["2020-01-01", 0.25], ["2020-01-01", 0.25], ["2020-01-02", 0.25], ["2020-01-02", 0.25], ["2020-01-03", 0.25], ["2020-01-03", 0.25], ["2020-01-04", 0.25], ["2020-01-05", 0.25], ["2020-01-06", 0.25], ["2020-01-07", 0.25], ["2020-01-07", 0.25], ["2020-01-07", 0.3], ["2020-01-08", 0.3], ["2020-01-09", 0.25], ["2020-01-10", 0.25], ["2020-01-10", 0.275], ["2020-01-10", 0.275], ["2020-01-11", 0.25], ["2020-01-11", 0.25], ["2020-01-11", 0.3], ["2020-01-13", 0.25], ["2020-01-13", 0.25], ["2020-01-13", 0.3], ["2020-01-13", 0.275], ["2020-01-15", 0.275], ["2020-01-16", 0.255], ["2020-01-17", 0.255], ["2020-01-18", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.255], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.255], ["2020-01-19", 0.28], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.28], ["2020-01-20", 0.29], ["2020-01-20", 0.27], ["2020-01-20", 0.28], ["2020-01-20", 0.29], ["2020-01-20", 0.3], ["2020-01-20", 0.3], ["2020-01-20", 0.3], ["2020-01-21", 0.3], ["2020-01-21", 0.3], ["2020-01-22", 0.3], ["2020-01-22", 0.33], ["2020-01-23", 0.3], ["2020-01-24", 0.3], ["2020-01-25", 0.3], ["2020-01-26", 0.32], ["2020-01-26", 0.33], ["2020-01-28", 0.33], ["2020-01-29", 0.32], ["2020-01-30", 0.32], ["2020-01-30", 0.305], ["2020-01-31", 0.305], ["2020-02-03", 0.3], ["2020-02-05", 0.3], ["2020-02-06", 0.3], ["2020-02-06", 0.3], ["2020-02-06", 0.29], ["2020-02-07", 0.3], ["2020-02-07", 0.3], ["2020-02-08", 0.3], ["2020-02-10", 0.3], ["2020-02-11", 0.29], ["2020-02-11", 0.265], ["2020-02-11", 0.255], ["2020-02-12", 0.25], ["2020-02-13", 0.25], ["2020-02-14", 0.25], ["2020-02-15", 0.25], ["2020-02-15", 0.255], ["2020-02-16", 0.26], ["2020-02-18", 0.26], ["2020-02-18", 0.28], ["2020-02-20", 0.27], ["2020-02-21", 0.27], ["2020-02-23", 0.27], ["2020-02-24", 0.28], ["2020-02-25", 0.28], ["2020-02-26", 0.28], ["2020-02-26", 0.27], ["2020-02-27", 0.27], ["2020-02-27", 0.28], ["2020-02-28", 0.28], ["2020-02-28", 0.3], ["2020-02-28", 0.3], ["2020-02-28", 0.28], ["2020-03-01", 0.29], ["2020-03-02", 0.29], ["2020-03-02", 0.285], ["2020-03-02", 0.285], ["2020-03-02", 0.295], ["2020-03-02", 0.295], ["2020-03-04", 0.3], ["2020-03-04", 0.3], ["2020-03-05", 0.305], ["2020-03-05", 0.315], ["2020-03-06", 0.325], ["2020-03-06", 0.32], ["2020-03-07", 0.32], ["2020-03-07", 0.32], ["2020-03-08", 0.32], ["2020-03-08", 0.32], ["2020-03-09", 0.33], ["2020-03-09", 0.34], ["2020-03-10", 0.35], ["2020-03-10", 0.35], ["2020-03-11", 0.35], ["2020-03-11", 0.35], ["2020-03-12", 0.35], ["2020-03-12", 0.35], ["2020-03-12", 0.35], ["2020-03-12", 0.35], ["2020-03-12", 0.35], ["2020-03-13", 0.35], ["2020-03-13", 0.35], ["2020-03-13", 0.365], ["2020-03-13", 0.38], ["2020-03-13", 0.38], ["2020-03-13", 0.39], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-15", 0.4], ["2020-03-15", 0.42], ["2020-03-15", 0.445], ["2020-03-15", 0.445], ["2020-03-15", 0.445], ["2020-03-16", 0.445], ["2020-03-16", 0.455], ["2020-03-16", 0.47], ["2020-03-16", 0.49], ["2020-03-16", 0.49], ["2020-03-16", 0.505], ["2020-03-17", 0.545], ["2020-03-17", 0.55], ["2020-03-17", 0.55], ["2020-03-17", 0.55], ["2020-03-17", 0.55], ["2020-03-17", 0.575], ["2020-03-17", 0.6], ["2020-03-17", 0.6], ["2020-03-17", 0.6], ["2020-03-18", 0.6], ["2020-03-18", 0.6], ["2020-03-18", 0.605], ["2020-03-18", 0.605], ["2020-03-18", 0.63], ["2020-03-18", 0.63], ["2020-03-18", 0.65], ["2020-03-18", 0.65], ["2020-03-19", 0.675], ["2020-03-19", 0.7], ["2020-03-19", 0.75], ["2020-03-19", 0.8], ["2020-03-19", 0.8], ["2020-03-19", 0.8], ["2020-03-19", 0.8], ["2020-03-20", 0.815], ["2020-03-20", 0.85], ["2020-03-20", 0.85], ["2020-03-20", 0.85], ["2020-03-20", 0.865], ["2020-03-20", 0.9], ["2020-03-20", 0.9], ["2020-03-21", 0.9], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], ["2020-03-21", 0.95], 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True | 2020-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1619 |
<div>Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations (<a href="https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen" target="_blank">European Automobile Manufacturers Association</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en" target="_blank">Europa</a>, <a href="https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/" target="_blank">Electrive</a>). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631" target="_blank">REGULATION (EU) 2019/631</a>, particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the shorter-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles" target="_blank">#1620</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>
<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p></div> | 2021-01-05 | Before 1 January 2021, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? | 2020-05-15 | [["2020-05-15", 0.0], ["2020-05-15", 0.1], ["2020-05-15", 0.13], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.13], ["2020-05-15", 0.165], ["2020-05-15", 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True | 2020-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1708 |
<p>Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (<a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2020/07/18/central-and-southern-china-are-being-ravaged-by-floods" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/flooding-along-yangtze-and-nervous-watch-three-gorges-dam" target="_blank">The Interpreter</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-weather-floods-dams/dam-collapse-in-china-could-point-to-a-black-swan-disaster-idUSKCN24N047" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual "sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water" (<a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/eng/pubs/htmlpubs/htm12732805/page07.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Forest Service</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ </a>or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 August 2020</span>: Mere use of the dam spillway alone would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-10-01 | Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020? | 2020-07-22 | [["2020-07-22", 0.13], ["2020-07-22", 0.08], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.005], ["2020-07-22", 0.0], ["2020-07-22", 0.0], ["2020-07-22", 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True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876 |
<p>The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/" target="_blank">Diem</a>, <a href="https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/" target="_blank">Securities.io</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 April 2021</span>: Whether a launched stablecoin is backed by a single currency or multiple currencies is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? | 2020-12-22 | [["2020-12-22", 0.915], ["2020-12-22", 0.825], ["2020-12-23", 0.825], ["2020-12-23", 0.825], ["2020-12-23", 0.85], ["2020-12-23", 0.9], ["2020-12-23", 0.945], ["2020-12-23", 0.945], ["2020-12-23", 0.875], ["2020-12-23", 0.825], ["2020-12-24", 0.785], ["2020-12-24", 0.825], ["2020-12-24", 0.8], ["2020-12-25", 0.79], ["2020-12-25", 0.77], ["2020-12-26", 0.77], ["2020-12-26", 0.75], ["2020-12-26", 0.695], ["2020-12-26", 0.695], ["2020-12-26", 0.725], ["2020-12-26", 0.62], ["2020-12-27", 0.6], ["2020-12-27", 0.61], ["2020-12-28", 0.62], 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0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/technology/stablecoins-face-same-safeguards-traditional-payments-2021-10-06/", "https://github.com/diem/diem/commit/05f533ee89d07dbcff5ba0bd4d44dd28d576ba5f", "https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum", "https://cryptonews.com/news/facebook-to-ramp-up-payments-ahead-of-diem-launch-11097.htm", "https://developers.diem.com/main/changelog", "https://www.diem.com/en-us/media-press-news", "https://www.novi.com/news", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polkadot-based-pontem-raises-4-201000510.html", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/19/facebook-scales-back-its-crypto-ambitions-once-again/", "https://paxos.com/usdp/", "https://twitter.com/pontemnetwork?lang=en", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-exec-on-launching-digital-wallet-we-plan-to-earn-peoples-trust-173921742.html", "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3893937", "https://github.com/diem/diem", "https://twitter.com/diemassociation", "https://www.fool.com.au/2021/06/18/is-facebook-about-to-finally-launch-its-cryptocurrency/", "https://www.novi.com/", "https://techmonitor.ai/policy/facebook-novi-digital-wallet-libra-diem", "https://www.wikiwand.com/en/David_A._Marcus", "https://twitter.com/DiemDevelopers", "https://github.com/diem/diem/commit/43d44d975fd23c99994fa8e42f45344caf6940db", "https://www.diem.com/en-us/blog/growing-our-maintainers-team/", "https://medium.com/@davidmarcus/good-stablecoins-a-protocol-for-money-and-digital-wallets-the-formula-to-fix-our-broken-payment-f11f59fc92d7", "https://www.protocol.com/facebook-crypto-diem-novi", "https://coingeek.com/facebook-diem-announces-us-stablecoin-launch/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2215 |
<p>The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-announces-diplomatic-boycott-winter-olympics-china-human/story?id=81583714" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2021/11/24/heres-the-growing-list-of-countries-weighing-a-diplomatic-boycott-of-the-beijing-olympics/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/u-s-announces-diplomatic-boycott-of-beijing-olympics-will-canada-do-the-same-1.5695400" target="_blank">CTV News</a>). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (<a href="https://olympics.com/en/beijing-2022/" target="_blank">Olympics.com</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/reports-biden-admin-expected-to-announce-diplomatic-boycott-of-2022-beijing-winter-games-/6340954.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height: 1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-08 | Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022? | 2021-12-07 | [["2021-12-07", 0.63], ["2021-12-07", 0.69], ["2021-12-07", 0.65], ["2021-12-07", 0.7], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.765], ["2021-12-07", 0.78], ["2021-12-07", 0.765], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.745], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.765], ["2021-12-07", 0.78], ["2021-12-07", 0.79], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.79], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.79], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.8], ["2021-12-07", 0.79], ["2021-12-07", 0.78], ["2021-12-07", 0.78], ["2021-12-07", 0.765], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.765], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-07", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.745], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-08", 0.78], ["2021-12-08", 0.78], ["2021-12-08", 0.78], ["2021-12-08", 0.78], ["2021-12-08", 0.78], ["2021-12-08", 0.78]] | ["https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/election-2021/glavin-chinas-interference-in-canadas-election-doesnt-seem-to-faze-the-liberals/wcm/844c0d86-513a-4999-a90c-f67cc221c350/amp/", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RC-9-2021-0385_EN.html", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-a-residential-school-system-in-china-is-stripping-tibetan-children-of/", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/decision-on-diplomatic-boycott-of-winter-olympics-coming-today-trudeau-1.5698625", "https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/12/06/china-warns-of-countermeasures-as-canada-considers-joining-us-diplomatic-boycott-of-olympics.html", "https://angusreid.org/canada-china-huawei-meng-michaels-oct-2021/", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8427924/beijing-winter-olympic-diplomatic-boycott-canada/", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8432421/beijing-olympics-boycott-ambassador/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ioc-diplomatic-boycott-beijing-olympics-523801", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/04/beijing-2022-180-human-rights-groups-call-for-winter-olympics-boycott", "https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/secret-documents-reveal-liberals-dismay-at-cancelled-china-exercises", "https://canadians.org/analysis/trudeau-makes-concessions-secure-canada-china-free-trade-agreement", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/eu-votes-diplomats-boycott-china-winter-olympics-human-rights-abuses", "https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canadian-ambassador-to-china-dominic-barton-tenders-resignation-after-two-contentious-years/wcm/879a75e1-13cb-4111-95d6-bd7c9703de58/amp/", "https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-trudeaus-inability-to-stand-against-china-is-a-stain-on-canada/wcm/e8d4dfa7-a2c1-45ce-8afa-9a771b9ac2ba/amp/", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8433493/canada-beijing-diplomatic-boycott-announcement/", "https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politics/2021/12/6/1_5695400.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1651 |
<p>Qualified immunity, a legal doctrine by which public officials are shielded from being sued in federal court unless they violate clearly established law, is facing greater scrutiny in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis (<a href="https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/death-of-george-floyd-brings-debate-on-qualified-immunity" target="_blank">ABA Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/08/872470083/qualified-immunity-a-doctrine-that-made-it-much-harder-to-sue-the-police" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/qualified_immunity" target="_blank">Legal Information Institute</a>). Legislation that would curtail or eliminate qualified immunity has been recently introduced in Congress (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/7085" target="_blank">Congress.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52969375" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The date the law would take effect is immaterial.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-11-03 | Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation curtailing or eliminating qualified immunity for public officials become law? | 2020-06-12 | [["2020-06-12", 0.13], ["2020-06-12", 0.09], ["2020-06-12", 0.095], ["2020-06-12", 0.13], ["2020-06-12", 0.115], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.115], ["2020-06-12", 0.13], ["2020-06-12", 0.14], ["2020-06-12", 0.15], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.115], ["2020-06-12", 0.065], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.06], ["2020-06-12", 0.03], ["2020-06-12", 0.03], ["2020-06-12", 0.045], ["2020-06-12", 0.045], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.045], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.045], ["2020-06-13", 0.04], ["2020-06-13", 0.04], 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["2020-11-03", 0.0], ["2020-11-03", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-09 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2329 |
<p>On 10 March 2022, the ECB announced it would end APP in the third quarter of 2022 if certain conditions were met (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.mp220310~2d19f8ba60.en.html" target="_blank">ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/russia-ukraine-war-european-central-bank-holds-interest-rates-steady.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on "Monetary policy decisions" (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">ECB - Press Releases</a>). In its 10 March 2022 statement, the ECB stated that "Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter." (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.mp220310~2d19f8ba60.en.html" target="_blank">ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022</a>). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Governing Council has decided it will conclude the APP (e.g., the ECB announced in December 2021 that it would discontinue its Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.mp211216~1b6d3a1fd8.en.html" target="_blank">ECB - Monetary policy decisions 16 December 2021</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-ends-pandemic-era-bond-purchases-prepares-smooth-transition/" target="_blank">Politico</a>)). Conditional announcements (e.g., "If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases") would not count. The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-09 | Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022? | 2022-03-25 | [["2022-03-25", 0.01], ["2022-03-25", 0.5], ["2022-03-25", 0.99], ["2022-03-25", 1.0], ["2022-03-26", 1.0], ["2022-03-26", 1.0], ["2022-03-26", 1.0], ["2022-03-26", 1.0], ["2022-03-26", 1.0], ["2022-03-27", 1.0], ["2022-03-27", 1.0], ["2022-03-27", 1.0], ["2022-03-28", 1.0], ["2022-03-28", 1.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.99], ["2022-03-28", 0.995], ["2022-03-29", 0.995], ["2022-03-30", 0.995], ["2022-03-31", 0.995], ["2022-04-02", 0.97], ["2022-04-02", 0.97], ["2022-04-03", 0.97], ["2022-04-04", 0.97], ["2022-04-05", 0.92], ["2022-04-06", 0.935], ["2022-04-06", 0.935], ["2022-04-06", 0.905], ["2022-04-06", 0.87], ["2022-04-07", 0.87], ["2022-04-07", 0.87], ["2022-04-08", 0.87], ["2022-04-08", 0.86], ["2022-04-09", 0.85], ["2022-04-09", 0.85], ["2022-04-09", 0.85], ["2022-04-09", 0.85], ["2022-04-12", 0.85], ["2022-04-13", 0.86], ["2022-04-14", 0.86], ["2022-04-14", 0.885], ["2022-04-14", 0.885], ["2022-04-15", 0.9], ["2022-04-15", 0.9], ["2022-04-18", 0.9], ["2022-04-18", 0.9], ["2022-04-18", 0.9], ["2022-04-19", 0.9], ["2022-04-21", 0.9], ["2022-04-21", 0.9], ["2022-04-21", 0.9], ["2022-04-21", 0.9], ["2022-04-22", 0.9], ["2022-04-25", 0.9], ["2022-04-27", 0.94], ["2022-04-29", 0.94], ["2022-05-01", 0.955], ["2022-05-01", 0.975], ["2022-05-01", 0.975], ["2022-05-04", 0.975], ["2022-05-05", 0.975], ["2022-05-05", 0.975], ["2022-05-05", 0.985], ["2022-05-06", 0.985], ["2022-05-07", 0.975], ["2022-05-07", 0.975], ["2022-05-08", 0.985], ["2022-05-10", 0.98], ["2022-05-11", 0.99], ["2022-05-11", 0.99], ["2022-05-11", 0.99], ["2022-05-12", 0.99], ["2022-05-14", 0.99], ["2022-05-18", 1.0], ["2022-05-18", 1.0], ["2022-05-18", 1.0], ["2022-05-18", 0.995], ["2022-05-18", 1.0], ["2022-05-19", 1.0], ["2022-05-23", 1.0], ["2022-05-25", 1.0], ["2022-05-25", 1.0], ["2022-05-26", 1.0], ["2022-05-29", 1.0], ["2022-05-31", 1.0], ["2022-06-02", 1.0], ["2022-06-03", 1.0], ["2022-06-05", 1.0], ["2022-06-05", 1.0], ["2022-06-05", 1.0], ["2022-06-05", 1.0], ["2022-06-05", 1.0], ["2022-06-08", 1.0], ["2022-06-09", 1.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926 |
<p>Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526" target="_blank">JPost</a>). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? | 2021-02-05 | [["2021-02-05", 1.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.625], ["2021-02-05", 0.5], ["2021-02-05", 0.375], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.24], ["2021-02-05", 0.23], ["2021-02-05", 0.2], ["2021-02-05", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.175], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.175], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.2], ["2021-02-06", 0.19], ["2021-02-06", 0.18], ["2021-02-07", 0.165], ["2021-02-07", 0.18], ["2021-02-07", 0.165], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.165], ["2021-02-07", 0.18], ["2021-02-07", 0.165], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.145], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], 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"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-09/saudi-arabia-is-in-no-rush-to-recognize-israel", "http://arabcenterdc.org/survey/the-2019-2020-arab-opinion-index-main-results-in-brief/#section6", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210113-saudi-condemns-israel-decision-to-build-800-new-illegal-settlement-units/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/25/saudi-israeli-relations-the-curious-case-of-a-neom-meeting-denied/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-israel-prince-turki-faisal-colonising-power-bahrain", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/", "https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol3/", "https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol12/#will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations", "http://arabcenterdc.org/survey/the-2019-2020-arab-opinion-index-main-results-in-brief/#section9", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-progress-on-israel-saudi-normalization-until-king-salman-has-gone-report/", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/saudi-arabia-is-in-no-rush-to-recognize-israel", "https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-an-israeli-saudi-peace-deal-be-imminent-"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2843 |
<p>Russian forces are reportedly expecting a Ukrainian counterattack in the spring of 2023, with the key city of Melitopol a potential target (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230410-russians-in-occuppied-melitopol-are-panicking-exiled-mayor-says" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/05/explosions-rock-melitopol-russia-warn-counter-attack/" target="_blank">Telegraph</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-03-28/russian-forces-making-no-headway-in-bakhmut-avdiivka-ukraine-says" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 October 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-04-12 | [["2023-04-12", 0.58], ["2023-04-12", 0.4225], ["2023-04-12", 0.3983], ["2023-04-12", 0.3113], ["2023-04-13", 0.366], ["2023-04-13", 0.367], ["2023-04-13", 0.3375], ["2023-04-13", 0.3479], ["2023-04-13", 0.3193], ["2023-04-13", 0.2919], ["2023-04-13", 0.2906], ["2023-04-14", 0.3144], ["2023-04-15", 0.3165], ["2023-04-16", 0.318], ["2023-04-17", 0.352], ["2023-04-17", 0.323], ["2023-04-17", 0.3182], ["2023-04-18", 0.3325], ["2023-04-18", 0.2933], ["2023-04-18", 0.2836], ["2023-04-18", 0.2747], ["2023-04-19", 0.3176], ["2023-04-19", 0.3144], ["2023-04-20", 0.3206], ["2023-04-20", 0.305], ["2023-04-21", 0.296], ["2023-04-21", 0.2913], ["2023-04-21", 0.3131], ["2023-04-23", 0.3263], ["2023-04-24", 0.3776], 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["2023-08-12", 0.0733], ["2023-08-13", 0.0722], ["2023-08-13", 0.0719], ["2023-08-13", 0.0681], ["2023-08-14", 0.0597], ["2023-08-14", 0.0561], ["2023-08-15", 0.0603], ["2023-08-15", 0.0597], ["2023-08-15", 0.0584], ["2023-08-16", 0.0568], ["2023-08-17", 0.0551], ["2023-08-18", 0.0549], ["2023-08-19", 0.0541], ["2023-08-20", 0.0511], ["2023-08-21", 0.0476], ["2023-08-22", 0.0482], ["2023-08-23", 0.0513], ["2023-08-23", 0.0405], ["2023-08-24", 0.0403], ["2023-08-25", 0.0421], ["2023-08-26", 0.0408], ["2023-08-27", 0.0405], ["2023-08-28", 0.0395], ["2023-08-29", 0.0384], ["2023-08-29", 0.0374], ["2023-08-29", 0.0371], ["2023-08-31", 0.0313], ["2023-08-31", 0.0303], ["2023-09-02", 0.03], ["2023-09-03", 0.0295], ["2023-09-03", 0.0284], ["2023-09-05", 0.0282], ["2023-09-05", 0.0274], ["2023-09-05", 0.0221], ["2023-09-06", 0.02], ["2023-09-07", 0.0197], ["2023-09-08", 0.0244], ["2023-09-10", 0.0251], ["2023-09-10", 0.0254], ["2023-09-11", 0.0251], ["2023-09-12", 0.0251], ["2023-09-13", 0.0246], ["2023-09-15", 0.0254], ["2023-09-15", 0.0251], ["2023-09-17", 0.0245], ["2023-09-18", 0.0188], ["2023-09-19", 0.016], ["2023-09-20", 0.0155], ["2023-09-21", 0.0158], ["2023-09-22", 0.0158], ["2023-09-24", 0.0158], ["2023-09-24", 0.0151], ["2023-09-24", 0.0149], ["2023-09-25", 0.0146], ["2023-09-27", 0.0137], ["2023-09-27", 0.0371], ["2023-09-28", 0.0339], ["2023-09-29", 0.0307], ["2023-09-30", 0.0307], ["2023-10-01", 0.0305]] | ["https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html", "https://assets.kyivindependent.com/content/images/2023/05/pmap5.png", "http://www.skynews.com/", "https://www.newsweek.com/why-ukraine-burning-through-ammo-war-russia-1812294", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2023", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-dismissed-after-accusing-top-brass-failing-soldiers-2023-07-13/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2023", "https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1673143608315367425", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVSi6pTKZOc", "https://www.moore.army.mil/Infantry/DoctrineSupplement/ATP3-21.8/appendix_h/ObstacleReduction/ReduceaMinefield/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-06-13/war-in-ukraine-so-far-favors-the-defense", "https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraines-counteroffensive-begins-shall-leopards-break-free", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/17/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-tactics.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/world/russia-ukraine-news?unlocked_article_code=P_RU2TjKraFQCkgGohUVpX0TeC6wdATqSFJUoFUmLEV0_MRnUSZvD4-mxzQxkKPf9fFBB_1tl6eb9wN11r5AE-tgBTfCRgMtwMdDYcnXh6TgTjSuWFRZMwOI4k7Jdb365JyBZ5JYWae0GPQF5nQg4cDjBbzHZgVVrCbKdMYESYsEhKQ_20t0WsbQi0khkjTs4ygP5AfW7i6tidXFpAcjAY9nHxWpWVB0WrFPt5lvnl4Kl7UhMfiEzBsOjWddqrmFinUVsCxiInvHtf9f3JHPx_7VTK4PmtSK-S-4d2MT84kNO1NHFAN2iyDppiMlDCVrS1YSbbxwBFh9Nlv9CB-PGDbZANQ&smid=url-share", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/podcasts/the-daily/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-landmine-strewn-front-even-corpses-can-kill-2023-08-03/", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/profile/maxim-tucker?page=1", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/22/for-the-ukrainian-army-the-road-to-melitopol-is-mile-after-mile-of-russian-trenches/?sh=d7fa344079be", "https://wsj-article-webview-generator-prod.sc.onservo.com/webview/WP-WSJ-0001145626?adobe_mc=TS%3D1692507809%7CMCMID%3D01710549971278419046394086429534778577%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg&wsj_native_webview=android&ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "https://news.err.ee/1609034381/grosberg-ukrainian-forces-getting-closer-to-significant-success", "https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA144308.pdf", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-04/why-ukraine-counteroffensive-could-be-close-to-major-prize/102801456"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2886 |
<p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes and updates various data estimating, among other things, total hydrogen demand in the future in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) report (<a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/world-energy-outlook" target="_blank">IEA WEO</a>). The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) shows the trajectory implied by today's policy settings, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long‐term net zero and energy access goals (<a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099-5530-48f2-a7c1-11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf" target="_blank">WEO 2022</a>, see page 20). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and outcome determined using 2023 WEO total hydrogen demand data for both STEPS and APS in 2030, expected sometime in October 2023 (<a href="https://www.iea.org/events/world-energy-outlook-2023" target="_blank">WEO 2023</a>). The figure for STEPS will be divided by the figure for APS. In the 2022 WEO, total hydrogen demand in 2030 for STEPS was 13,438 petajoules and for APS was 15,064 petajoules, meaning that STEPS was 89.20605% of APS, or lower by 10.79395% (<a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099-5530-48f2-a7c1-11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf" target="_blank">WEO 2022</a>, see Table A.26 on page 460). The data may also be downloaded in an XLSX file (<a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-outlook-2022-free-dataset" target="_blank">WEO 2022 - Free Dataset</a>, download "Tables for scenario projections (Annex A)" and navigate to the "Hydrogen demand (PJ) sheet). If the percentage difference in the data for 2030 in the 2023 WEO is less than 10.79395%, then the question will close "Yes."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-24 | In the IEA's total hydrogen demand estimates for 2030, will the percentage difference between its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) be less in the 2023 WEO report compared to the 2022 WEO report? | 2023-05-16 | [["2023-05-16", 0.7], ["2023-05-16", 0.38], ["2023-05-16", 0.395], ["2023-05-16", 0.31], ["2023-05-17", 0.32], ["2023-05-17", 0.456], ["2023-05-17", 0.4467], ["2023-05-17", 0.4186], ["2023-05-17", 0.3975], ["2023-05-18", 0.3867], ["2023-05-18", 0.408], ["2023-05-18", 0.4136], ["2023-05-19", 0.3792], ["2023-05-19", 0.3509], ["2023-05-20", 0.337], ["2023-05-24", 0.302], ["2023-05-24", 0.272], ["2023-05-25", 0.277], ["2023-05-26", 0.288], ["2023-06-02", 0.263], ["2023-06-02", 0.278], ["2023-06-08", 0.288], ["2023-06-13", 0.286], ["2023-06-14", 0.336], ["2023-06-14", 0.416], ["2023-06-14", 0.497], ["2023-06-15", 0.562], ["2023-06-15", 0.539], ["2023-06-18", 0.546], ["2023-06-21", 0.557], ["2023-06-24", 0.57], ["2023-06-24", 0.568], ["2023-06-26", 0.633], ["2023-06-26", 0.643], ["2023-06-26", 0.642], ["2023-06-30", 0.651], ["2023-07-02", 0.63], ["2023-07-02", 0.634], ["2023-07-11", 0.689], ["2023-07-12", 0.699], ["2023-07-13", 0.699], ["2023-07-15", 0.703], ["2023-07-16", 0.713], ["2023-07-20", 0.726], ["2023-07-21", 0.701], ["2023-07-21", 0.69], ["2023-07-21", 0.645], ["2023-07-21", 0.6545], ["2023-07-21", 0.6709], ["2023-07-21", 0.6755], ["2023-07-21", 0.6525], ["2023-07-21", 0.6408], ["2023-07-21", 0.5992], ["2023-07-21", 0.5367], ["2023-07-21", 0.5367], ["2023-07-28", 0.5317], ["2023-07-29", 0.5508], ["2023-07-31", 0.5525], ["2023-08-05", 0.5558], ["2023-08-14", 0.5417], ["2023-08-14", 0.55], ["2023-08-14", 0.55], ["2023-08-14", 0.55], ["2023-08-14", 0.4958], ["2023-08-14", 0.4654], ["2023-08-14", 0.4177], ["2023-08-15", 0.3915], ["2023-08-15", 0.3654], ["2023-08-17", 0.3738], ["2023-08-19", 0.3731], ["2023-08-22", 0.3715], ["2023-08-23", 0.37], ["2023-08-24", 0.3608], ["2023-08-26", 0.3492], ["2023-08-26", 0.3477], ["2023-08-27", 0.3462], ["2023-08-31", 0.3431], ["2023-08-31", 0.3354], ["2023-09-04", 0.3269], ["2023-09-06", 0.3054], ["2023-09-06", 0.2985], ["2023-09-06", 0.2915], ["2023-09-06", 0.2615], ["2023-09-14", 0.2577], ["2023-09-16", 0.26], ["2023-09-19", 0.2715], ["2023-09-25", 0.2654], ["2023-09-26", 0.2569], ["2023-09-27", 0.3138], ["2023-09-30", 0.3231], ["2023-10-01", 0.2654], ["2023-10-01", 0.2654]] | ["https://www.iea.org/reports/hydrogen"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2401 |
<p>War and conflict have left millions in Western Africa facing potential famine (<a href="https://www.fao.org/africa/news/detail-news/en/c/1506997/" target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization</a>, <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/205876/food-insecurity-us-scales-up-aid-to-africa-while-blaming-russia-at-the-un/" target="_blank">Africa Report</a>, <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/" target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool</a>). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is made up of fifteen member countries that are located in Western Africa (<a href="https://ecowas.int/?page_id=381" target="_blank">ECOWAS</a>). Whether a member state is suspended would be immaterial. For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023? | 2022-05-26 | [["2022-05-27", 0.4], ["2022-05-27", 0.6], ["2022-05-27", 0.5833333333333334], ["2022-05-27", 0.6875], ["2022-05-27", 0.682], ["2022-05-28", 0.735], ["2022-05-28", 0.7442857142857143], ["2022-05-28", 0.7585714285714286], ["2022-05-28", 0.72625], ["2022-05-28", 0.7233333333333334], ["2022-05-28", 0.652], ["2022-05-28", 0.657], ["2022-05-29", 0.677], ["2022-05-29", 0.722], ["2022-05-29", 0.722], ["2022-05-29", 0.664], ["2022-05-30", 0.594], ["2022-05-30", 0.527], ["2022-05-30", 0.554], ["2022-05-30", 0.484], ["2022-05-30", 0.479], ["2022-05-31", 0.577], ["2022-05-31", 0.537], ["2022-06-02", 0.497], ["2022-06-02", 0.497], ["2022-06-02", 0.589], ["2022-06-03", 0.659], ["2022-06-03", 0.671], ["2022-06-03", 0.6727272727272727], ["2022-06-04", 0.63], 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"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soaring-fertilizer-prices-unleash-chaos-hunger-worldwide", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/even-if-ukraines-ports-open-tomorrow-it-will-take-months-demine-them-un", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/ch/Booklet_CH_Nov2021_vf_En.pdf", "https://www.africanews.com/2022/08/26/horn-of-africa-5th-consecutive-rainy-season-missed/", "https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/60-percent-of-the-worlds-hungry-live-in-just-8-countries-why/", "https://data.humdata.org/dataset", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/2/us-drops-burkina-faso-from-africa-duty-free-trade-program", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hunger-grips-burkina-faso-due-increasing-jihadi-violence-84311437", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-suspends-participation-ukraine-grain-deal-after-massive-drone-attack-black-sea", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/en/", "https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/v4LTAoiA90H7QvhkBJO5ug~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkvaNCP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNy8yMi93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvdWtyYWluZS1ydXNzaWEtZ3JhaW4tZGVhbC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU3JmVtYz1lZGl0X25lXzIwMjIwNzIyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTY3NDE3Jm5sPWV2ZW5pbmctYnJpZWZpbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03Mzc2NTU1NSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTk5MzQxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hOWU5N2UxMzAwODM1NTBhYjNlNDY1MTEwMjYyYmYyNVcDbnl0Qgpi1UIe22LKTGJ2UhNtaWtlbW9iYnNAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/cadre-harmonise", "https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/NER/Year/2018/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/all/Product/16-24_FoodProd", "https://fews-net.translate.goog/west-africa/burkina-faso?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp", "https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean", "https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/2020/08/19/conflict-and-coronavirus-spark-hunger-crisis-burkina-faso", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/07/382342-when-food-security-crisis-becomes-famine", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1463904", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63111763", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/famine-facts/en/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-12-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1670 |
<p>Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australian organizations are victim to sustained cyberattacks, but he did not name the attacker (<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-reveals-malicious-state-based-cyber-attack-hitting-several-sectors-20200619-p5545z.html" target="_blank">Sydney Morning Herald</a>, <a href="https://portswigger.net/daily-swig/service-nsw-australian-government-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack" target="_blank">Port Swigger</a>). Australia's Cyber Security Center has identified the recent spate of attacks as "copy-paste compromises" (<a href="https://www.cyber.gov.au/threats/advisory-2020-008-copy-paste-compromises-tactics-techniques-and-procedures-used-target-multiple-australian-networks" target="_blank">Cyber.gov.au</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Australian government" means the incumbent prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-12-29 | Before 26 December 2020, will the Australian government accuse the Chinese government, by name, of being behind the "copy-paste compromises" cyberattacks? | 2020-06-26 | [["2020-06-26", 0.0], ["2020-06-26", 0.1], ["2020-06-26", 0.1], ["2020-06-26", 0.15], ["2020-06-26", 0.2], ["2020-06-26", 0.28], ["2020-06-26", 0.36], ["2020-06-26", 0.36], ["2020-06-26", 0.28], ["2020-06-26", 0.36], ["2020-06-26", 0.405], ["2020-06-26", 0.55], ["2020-06-26", 0.55], ["2020-06-26", 0.55], ["2020-06-27", 0.55], ["2020-06-27", 0.55], ["2020-06-27", 0.425], ["2020-06-27", 0.5], ["2020-06-27", 0.6], ["2020-06-27", 0.6], ["2020-06-27", 0.65], ["2020-06-27", 0.6], ["2020-06-27", 0.6], ["2020-06-27", 0.635], ["2020-06-27", 0.585], ["2020-06-27", 0.585], ["2020-06-27", 0.625], ["2020-06-27", 0.625], ["2020-06-27", 0.625], ["2020-06-27", 0.625], ["2020-06-27", 0.535], ["2020-06-27", 0.45], ["2020-06-28", 0.45], ["2020-06-28", 0.525], ["2020-06-28", 0.525], ["2020-06-28", 0.525], ["2020-06-28", 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["2020-12-22", 0.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-10-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1800 |
<p>With an already closely-divided Senate and reluctance by some GOP Senators to vote on a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the November election, there's a chance that Vice President Pence would be called upon to break a tie in Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation vote (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/democrats-lament-amy-coney-barrett-pick-say-we-can-t-n1241213" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/09/29/amy-coney-barrett-meets-with-senators-ahead-of-scotus-vote/" target="_blank">NY Post</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jonathan-kobes-becomes-first-federal-judge-in-u-s-history-confirmed-by-tiebreaker-in-the-senate/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). The question would close upon a final Senate vote on Barrett's confirmation.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-10-27 | Before 5 January 2021, will Vice President Mike Pence cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court? | 2020-10-02 | [["2020-10-02", 0.25], ["2020-10-02", 0.125], ["2020-10-02", 0.02], ["2020-10-02", 0.105], ["2020-10-02", 0.105], ["2020-10-02", 0.05], ["2020-10-02", 0.12], ["2020-10-02", 0.05], ["2020-10-02", 0.035], ["2020-10-02", 0.05], ["2020-10-02", 0.035], ["2020-10-02", 0.02], ["2020-10-02", 0.015], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-02", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.005], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.005], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.005], ["2020-10-03", 0.005], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.0], ["2020-10-03", 0.005], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.01], ["2020-10-03", 0.02], ["2020-10-03", 0.025], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.045], ["2020-10-03", 0.04], ["2020-10-03", 0.05], ["2020-10-03", 0.045], ["2020-10-03", 0.05], ["2020-10-03", 0.045], ["2020-10-03", 0.035], ["2020-10-03", 0.03], ["2020-10-03", 0.04], ["2020-10-04", 0.035], ["2020-10-04", 0.045], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.045], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.04], ["2020-10-04", 0.04], ["2020-10-05", 0.04], ["2020-10-05", 0.05], ["2020-10-05", 0.05], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.025], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.035], ["2020-10-05", 0.035], ["2020-10-05", 0.035], ["2020-10-06", 0.035], ["2020-10-06", 0.04], ["2020-10-06", 0.03], ["2020-10-06", 0.035], ["2020-10-06", 0.035], ["2020-10-06", 0.045], ["2020-10-06", 0.035], ["2020-10-07", 0.035], ["2020-10-07", 0.04], ["2020-10-07", 0.04], ["2020-10-07", 0.035], ["2020-10-07", 0.035], ["2020-10-07", 0.035], ["2020-10-07", 0.03], ["2020-10-07", 0.03], ["2020-10-07", 0.02], ["2020-10-08", 0.025], ["2020-10-08", 0.025], ["2020-10-08", 0.025], ["2020-10-08", 0.03], ["2020-10-08", 0.03], ["2020-10-08", 0.025], ["2020-10-08", 0.03], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-10", 0.02], ["2020-10-10", 0.02], ["2020-10-10", 0.02], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-13", 0.03], ["2020-10-13", 0.03], ["2020-10-13", 0.035], ["2020-10-13", 0.035], ["2020-10-13", 0.035], ["2020-10-13", 0.04], ["2020-10-14", 0.04], ["2020-10-14", 0.04], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-15", 0.03], ["2020-10-15", 0.03], ["2020-10-15", 0.025], ["2020-10-15", 0.025], ["2020-10-16", 0.025], ["2020-10-17", 0.025], ["2020-10-18", 0.025], ["2020-10-18", 0.02], ["2020-10-18", 0.02], ["2020-10-18", 0.02], ["2020-10-18", 0.02], ["2020-10-19", 0.02], ["2020-10-19", 0.02], ["2020-10-19", 0.01], ["2020-10-19", 0.01], ["2020-10-20", 0.015], ["2020-10-20", 0.015], ["2020-10-20", 0.015], ["2020-10-20", 0.015], ["2020-10-21", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-22", 0.01], ["2020-10-23", 0.01], ["2020-10-23", 0.01], ["2020-10-23", 0.0], ["2020-10-24", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-27", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2343 |
<p>High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/el-erian-warns-of-cost-of-living-crisis-says-fed-rate-hikes-could-cause-recession.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/economy/recession-risk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-03-21/u-s-yield-curve-points-to-recession-risk-as-market-challenges-feds-soft-landing" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 and Q4 of 2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q4 2022 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA" target="_blank">FRED</a>, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-08/quick-guide-gdp.pdf" target="_blank">BEA</a>). The question would close "No" if the third estimate for Q3 2022 indicates no US real GDP contraction.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-22 | Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022? | 2022-04-08 | [["2022-04-08", 0.18333333333333332], ["2022-04-08", 0.162], ["2022-04-08", 0.2857142857142857], ["2022-04-09", 0.214], ["2022-04-09", 0.206], ["2022-04-09", 0.211], ["2022-04-09", 0.287], ["2022-04-09", 0.375], ["2022-04-09", 0.345], ["2022-04-10", 0.362], ["2022-04-10", 0.3472727272727273], ["2022-04-10", 0.37833333333333335], ["2022-04-10", 0.44153846153846155], ["2022-04-10", 0.43714285714285717], ["2022-04-11", 0.4046666666666667], ["2022-04-11", 0.325625], ["2022-04-11", 0.2975], ["2022-04-12", 0.2958823529411765], ["2022-04-12", 0.25722222222222224], ["2022-04-12", 0.27052631578947367], ["2022-04-13", 0.30157894736842106], ["2022-04-13", 0.3245], ["2022-04-14", 0.373], ["2022-04-14", 0.41714285714285715], ["2022-04-14", 0.4195238095238095], ["2022-04-15", 0.4081818181818182], ["2022-04-16", 0.3939130434782609], ["2022-04-16", 0.3934782608695652], ["2022-04-17", 0.38708333333333333], ["2022-04-17", 0.3925], ["2022-04-18", 0.4016], ["2022-04-18", 0.3992], ["2022-04-18", 0.3626923076923077], ["2022-04-19", 0.3814814814814815], ["2022-04-19", 0.3522222222222222], ["2022-04-20", 0.362962962962963], ["2022-04-21", 0.3562962962962963], ["2022-04-22", 0.34714285714285714], ["2022-04-23", 0.3464285714285714], ["2022-04-25", 0.3432142857142857], ["2022-04-26", 0.35035714285714287], ["2022-04-27", 0.3560714285714286], ["2022-04-28", 0.3892857142857143], ["2022-04-28", 0.4064285714285714], ["2022-04-28", 0.42714285714285716], ["2022-04-29", 0.41285714285714287], ["2022-04-30", 0.4107142857142857], ["2022-05-01", 0.3807142857142857], ["2022-05-01", 0.37482758620689655], ["2022-05-02", 0.3775862068965517], ["2022-05-03", 0.38689655172413795], ["2022-05-04", 0.3872413793103448], ["2022-05-05", 0.3903448275862069], ["2022-05-06", 0.3913793103448276], 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"https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html", "https://kalshi.com/events/GDP-232022%20Q4/markets/GDP-232022%20Q4-T2.5", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/fed-says-us-economy-grew-modestly-though-conditions-varied?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.ft.com/content/c57e1bf3-b453-430c-ba0d-738fb8b1888e", "https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/us-weekly-economic-commentary-q3-surprise-but-recession-looms.html", "https://business.bofa.com/en-us/content/market-strategies-insights/global-economy-outlook-and-forecast.html", "https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/us-weekly-economiccommentary-inflation-pressure.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20221019.pdf", "https://fortune.com/2022/10/27/runaway-inflation-us-economy-down-gdp-expected-return-growth-after-6-months-shrinkage/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1520764", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1517194", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/27/gdp-2022-q3-economy/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1533094", "https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/51e1ff2c-a31a-49a5-aa88-cea7e9f5db8d", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1533499", "https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for,2.9%20percent%20on%20October%207", "https://www.herox.com/IARPAGFChallenge2", "https://kalshi.com/events/GDP-232022%20Q4/markets/GDP-232022%20Q4-T0.0?details", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1523437", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1528338"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2603 |
<p>Rishi Sunak was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 25 October 2022, the third UK PM in 2022 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63345272" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/uk-pm-sunak-delays-highly-anticipated-spending-plan-to-mid-november-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | 2022-10-27 | [["2022-10-28", 0.27], ["2022-10-28", 0.392], ["2022-10-28", 0.2957], ["2022-10-28", 0.32], ["2022-10-28", 0.2985], ["2022-10-28", 0.2507], ["2022-10-28", 0.1994], ["2022-10-29", 0.2025], ["2022-10-29", 0.1826], ["2022-10-29", 0.1623], ["2022-10-30", 0.1479], ["2022-10-30", 0.1435], ["2022-10-30", 0.1345], ["2022-10-31", 0.13], ["2022-10-31", 0.1286], ["2022-10-31", 0.0918], ["2022-10-31", 0.0919], ["2022-11-01", 0.0719], ["2022-11-01", 0.0958], ["2022-11-02", 0.0932], ["2022-11-02", 0.1563], ["2022-11-03", 0.1796], ["2022-11-03", 0.1711], ["2022-11-03", 0.1884], ["2022-11-04", 0.1831], ["2022-11-04", 0.2174], ["2022-11-04", 0.2139], ["2022-11-04", 0.2383], ["2022-11-05", 0.2387], ["2022-11-07", 0.2363], ["2022-11-08", 0.2358], ["2022-11-09", 0.2369], ["2022-11-10", 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0.0931], ["2024-01-01", 0.093]] | ["https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/20/tory-turnaround-disaster-rishi-sunak-byelections-tamworth-mid-bedfordshire", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62064552", "https://www.ft.com/content/02716cb8-8707-44a2-8adf-087c332b7e28", "https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/conservatives/how-many-no-confidence-letters-vote-tory-leadership-rishi-sunak-2757394", "https://apnews.com/article/uk-special-elections-conservatives-labour-dcf3e2eb8a4a03ec22837e274bc887a2", "https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64452995", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/uk/rishi-sunak-conservative-conference-walkup-intcl-cmd-gbr/index.html", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jake-berry-next-budget-tax-neutral-rishi-sunak-30bjvdv9g#:~:text=The%2033%20Conservatives%20have%20signed,eve%20of%20Conservative%20Party%20conference", "https://laloshouseanddeckmaster.com/commercial-maintenance-graffiti-removal", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/24/this-can-only-end-badly-tories-fear-sunak-policy-blitz-is-bound-to-fail", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/sunaks-conservatives-suffer-2-big-defeats-avoid-wipeout-trio-uk-specia-rcna95479", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-sunak-sacks-interior-minister-braverman-2023-11-13/", "https://www.ft.com/content/e1ddfae9-10da-48f9-919b-700083ba1bdd", "https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/367/international-trade-committee/news/194833/mps-criticise-lack-of-information-and-unhelpful-responses-from-government-on-india-trade-negotiations/", "https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/#:~:text=Sunak%2C%20who%20recently%20marked%20his,no%20later%20than%20January%202025", "https://apnews.com/article/rishi-sunak-covid-inquiry-rwanda-plan-db042ca498b1018c30b9bff672dfde64", "https://labourlist.org/2023/09/rishi-sunak-net-zero-general-election-labour-prepare/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hunt-tax-cuts-tory-conference-truss-b2421478.html", "https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/suella-braverman-tory-claims-us-immigration-speech-leadership-pitch-2647226#:~:text=The%20Home%20Secretary%20faced%20accusations,Sunak%20if%20he%20loses%20the", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/when-general-election-rishi-sunak-2024-b996692.html", "https://translate.google.com/", "https://time.com/6194432/uk-prime-minister-selection-process/", "https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47410-voting-intention-con-27-lab-43-21-22-sep-2023", "https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/how-quickly-could-a-general-election-take-place"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-07-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2535 |
<p>In July 2022, HRA Pharma, a French pharmaceutical company, submitted an application to the FDA for what would be the first OTC birth control pill in the US (<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/07/14/1111297318/over-the-counter-birth-control-pills" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/11/fda-weighs-first-ever-application-for-over-the-counter-birth-control-pills-in-the-wake-of-roes-fall-00044819" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-application-process-nonprescription-drugs/prescription-nonprescription-rx-otc-switches" target="_blank">FDA - Prescription-to-Nonprescription (Rx-to-OTC) Switches</a>). Approval with limits (e.g., age restrictions) would count. Emergency contraceptives would not count (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/free-publications-women/birth-control" target="_blank">FDA - Birth Control</a>). Approval of a pill for sale OTC without a prescription but "behind the counter" would count (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2022/08/01/fda-may-approve-first-otc-birth-control-pill-in-us-more-novel-prescription-to-otc-switches-could-be-on-tap" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://nida.nih.gov/publications/drugfacts/over-counter-medicines" target="_blank">National Institutes of Health </a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-13 | Before 30 September 2023, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve a human birth control pill for sale over the counter (OTC)? | 2022-09-02 | [["2022-09-02", 1.0], ["2022-09-02", 0.6], ["2022-09-02", 0.6067], ["2022-09-02", 0.8067], ["2022-09-02", 0.7925], ["2022-09-02", 0.834], ["2022-09-02", 0.7767], ["2022-09-02", 0.68], ["2022-09-02", 0.67], ["2022-09-03", 0.7067], ["2022-09-03", 0.736], ["2022-09-03", 0.7391], ["2022-09-03", 0.7391], ["2022-09-03", 0.7608], ["2022-09-03", 0.7438], ["2022-09-03", 0.6943], ["2022-09-03", 0.7147], ["2022-09-03", 0.72], ["2022-09-03", 0.7276], ["2022-09-04", 0.7194], ["2022-09-04", 0.7158], ["2022-09-04", 0.7189], ["2022-09-04", 0.728], ["2022-09-04", 0.728], ["2022-09-05", 0.7367], ["2022-09-05", 0.7418], ["2022-09-05", 0.7183], ["2022-09-05", 0.7465], ["2022-09-05", 0.7279], ["2022-09-05", 0.7228], ["2022-09-05", 0.7267], 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"https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-advisers-back-otc-use-perrigos-birth-control-pill-2023-05-10/", "https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/information-about-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation", "https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3998070-fda-advisers-endorse-over-the-counter-birth-control-pill/?email=1adbaabcac06c4359d0f8573bc6e10790015660f&emaila=0a0c579776f0cfaf13a2bd3672253728&emailb=382fedba350e22dabbeb35cb10d1ff5d920641d1f042d216a0bbd4587734a396&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=05.10.23%20KB%20-%20BREAKING%20NEWS%20-%20OTC%20birth%20control%20pills", "https://rollcall.com/2023/03/02/fda-could-widen-path-for-otc-birth-control-statins/", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/perrigo-receives-notification-of-postponement-for-joint-fda-advisory-committee-to-review-opill-daily-oral-contraceptive-for-over-the-counter-otc-use-301659884.html", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/perrigo-announces-new-date-for-joint-fda-advisory-committee-meeting-to-review-opill-daily-oral-contraceptive-for-otc-use-301783374.html", "https://www.fda.gov/media/167893/download", "https://www.americanprogress.org/article/5-important-facts-about-over-the-counter-birth-control-pills/", "https://www.drugtopics.com/view/fda-reviewing-application-for-otc-contraceptive", "https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-advisers-meet-counter-birth-control-pills-rcna76977", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/10/health/fda-otc-birth-control-pill.html", "https://archive.is/a9Bes", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/24/fda-changes-plan-b-packaging-to-clarify-that-it-is-not-an-abortion-pill.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/hey-fda-free-birth-control-094130792.html", "https://www.reproductiveaccess.org/2020/09/history-of-mifepristone/", "https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/fda-updates-for-week-of-oct-24-2022", "https://fortune.com/2023/02/10/birth-control-prescription-over-the-counter-delay-hra-perrigo/", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/05/10/health/over-the-counter-birth-control-fda-advisers/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/abortion-pill-fda-challenged-in-lawsuit-seeking-to-pull-mifepristone-from-us.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/07/abortion-pill-ruling-explainer-mifepristone", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/prescription-pulse/2022/10/28/fda-will-overhaul-diagnostics-regulation-if-congress-doesnt-00063921", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/health/over-the-counter-birth-control-fda-advisers/index.html", "https://rewirenewsgroup.com/2022/10/21/is-the-right-to-birth-control-next-on-the-chopping-block/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2249 |
<p>Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nord-stream-filled-gas/31632027.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-consequence-nord-stream-two-russia-attack-ukraine/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/121621-no-decision-on-certifying-nord-stream-2-operator-in-first-half-of-2022-regulator" target="_blank">S&P Global</a>). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany? | 2022-01-20 | [["2022-01-21", 0.3375], ["2022-01-21", 0.49375], ["2022-01-22", 0.581], ["2022-01-22", 0.662], ["2022-01-22", 0.497], ["2022-01-22", 0.371], ["2022-01-22", 0.339], ["2022-01-22", 0.2909090909090909], ["2022-01-23", 0.3225], ["2022-01-23", 0.3657142857142857], ["2022-01-24", 0.418125], ["2022-01-24", 0.49], ["2022-01-24", 0.5184210526315789], ["2022-01-24", 0.4975], ["2022-01-25", 0.45681818181818185], ["2022-01-25", 0.4334782608695652], ["2022-01-25", 0.4041666666666667], ["2022-01-25", 0.4292], ["2022-01-25", 0.4153846153846154], ["2022-01-26", 0.40925925925925927], ["2022-01-26", 0.3825], ["2022-01-26", 0.37285714285714283], ["2022-01-26", 0.37357142857142855], ["2022-01-27", 0.34344827586206894], ["2022-01-27", 0.36], ["2022-01-27", 0.35516129032258065], 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"https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Nord-Stream-2-Wie-weiter-mit-herrenlose-Pipeline-Rohren,nordstream692.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pressure-defunct-nord-stream-2-pipeline-plunged-overnight-operator-2022-09-26/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-elite-want-putin-out-of-office-report/ar-AAXFwh5", "https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Klimastiftung-MV-Keine-Unterstuezung-mehr-fuer-Nord-Stream-2-,nordstream672.html", "https://www.luzernerzeitung.ch/news-service/wirtschaft/energie-neuer-aufschub-nachlassstundung-fuer-nord-stream-2-ag-verlaengert-ld.2340894", "https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/gas-duesseldorf-uniper-chef-aus-fuer-nord-stream-2-waere-risiko-fuer-gasbedarf-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220104-99-583962", "https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Hand-Untold-Dangerous-Legacy/dp/0307387844/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2ZR1YGHTTP3I2&keywords=dead+hand&qid=1653060347&s=books&sprefix=%2Cstripbooks%2C171&sr=1-1", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-regulator-says-nord-stream-2-launch-not-expected-h1-2022-2021-12-16/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-looking-repurposing-unused-nord-stream-2-pipeline-lng-use-report-2022-06-24/", "https://www.ft.com/content/ee5ee70c-7b68-4a3f-99f6-27b841762487", "https://news.yahoo.com/operator-nord-stream-2-files-190612218.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/world/europe/gazprom-germany-gas.html?smid=em-share", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/01/ftse-100-stock-markets-live-news-rouble-russia-gas/", "https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/photos/picture/ships/1097293/8705383/shipid:129823", "https://insiderpaper.com/russia-says-pipeline-to-china-will-replace-nord-stream-2/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2287-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2023", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kremlin-sabotage-cannot-be-ruled-out-reason-nord-stream-damage-2022-09-27/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/nord-stream-pipeline-germany-russia.amp.html", "https://www.youtube.com/c/ZeihanonGeopolitics/featured"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873 |
<p>Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt" target="_blank">Nerd Wallet</a>). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-15 | Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? | 2020-12-18 | [["2020-12-18", 0.3], ["2020-12-18", 0.35], ["2020-12-18", 0.25], ["2020-12-18", 0.25], ["2020-12-18", 0.25], ["2020-12-18", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.1], ["2020-12-19", 0.1], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.225], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-20", 0.25], ["2020-12-20", 0.275], ["2020-12-20", 0.3], ["2020-12-20", 0.37], ["2020-12-20", 0.37], ["2020-12-20", 0.445], ["2020-12-20", 0.445], ["2020-12-21", 0.45], ["2020-12-21", 0.445], ["2020-12-21", 0.45], ["2020-12-21", 0.445], ["2020-12-21", 0.44], ["2020-12-21", 0.44], ["2020-12-21", 0.35], ["2020-12-21", 0.395], ["2020-12-22", 0.445], 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"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bidens-budget-campaign-promises-student-debt-and-healthcare-reform-2021-5%3famp", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2021/07/28/pelosi-president-biden-does-not-have-power-to-cancel-student-loan-debt/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2021/04/01/biden-actively-considering-cancelling-student-loan-debt-of-up-to-50000/?sh=22044ae938e8", "https://greekreporter.com/2021/06/18/joe-biden-cancels-3-billion-worth-of-student-debt/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/03/29/heres-the-latest-on-student-loan-cancellation/?sh=d6956a926617", "https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/", "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-covid-forbearance", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/05/21/biden-drops-student-loan-forgiveness-from-latest-budget/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/07/12/student-loans-may-be-due-starting-october-1---here-are-answers-to-10-popular-questions/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/04/03/biden-student-loans-review-could-mean-this-for-student-loan-cancellation/?sh=6f1a36d08cbd", "https://hillreporter.com/judge-orders-cruella-devos-to-testify-in-lawsuit-over-loan-forgiveness-101529", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/08/02/this-hidden-clue-suggests-biden-wont-extend-student-loan-relief/", "https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/EXPLAINER-Senate-eyes-budget-rule-to-push-past-16081541.php", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/05/09/democrats-urge-immediate-student-loan-relief-and-propose-4-ways-to-fix-student-loan-forgiveness/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2021/08/09/biden-administration-starts-overhaul-of-student-loan-forgiveness-income-based-repayment-programs/", "https://www.axios.com/biden-student-debt-50k-10k-cancel-forgive-klain-e41886f7-fc1a-42d6-b2bc-ce4cc1c3ac2b.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/09/politics/biden-student-loan-debt-cancellation/index.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/07/14/biden-cancelled-40-billion-of-student-loans-this-way/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-debt-forgiveness-biden-campaign-promises-education-department-2021-6", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/upshot/student-loans-biden.html", "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/joe-biden-student-loans", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2021/05/28/biden-budget-omits-broad-student-loan-forgiveness-heres-where-things-stand-in-washington-on-relief/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-promised-memo-biden-s-authority-cancel-student-debt-n1268681"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2898 |
<p>Violence in Kosovo escalated in late May 2023 as Serb protesters clashed with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces while Serbia has put its forces on high alert amid domestic political protests of its own (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-tension-eu-us-cf2637072cd88f3bcf0d902236d3631b" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65725001" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://jfcnaples.nato.int/kfor/media-center/archive/news/2023/kfor-update-on-unprovoked-attacks-in-zvecan" target="_blank">NATO - KFOR</a>, <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/vucic-resigns-as-head-of-party-as-anti-government-anti-violence-protests-continue/" target="_blank">EURACTIV</a>). Serbia requested to deploy forces in December 2022, but KFOR declined (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-denies-serbia-request-deploy-military-kosovo-aleksandar-vucic/" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-07 | Before 1 November 2023, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization? | 2023-06-02 | [["2023-06-02", 0.8], ["2023-06-02", 0.44], ["2023-06-02", 0.2933], ["2023-06-02", 0.465], ["2023-06-02", 0.392], ["2023-06-02", 0.3467], ["2023-06-02", 0.3329], ["2023-06-02", 0.3663], ["2023-06-02", 0.4356], ["2023-06-02", 0.392], ["2023-06-02", 0.3745], ["2023-06-03", 0.3609], ["2023-06-03", 0.335], ["2023-06-03", 0.34], ["2023-06-03", 0.3292], ["2023-06-03", 0.3093], ["2023-06-04", 0.3079], ["2023-06-04", 0.3], ["2023-06-04", 0.2973], ["2023-06-04", 0.2788], ["2023-06-04", 0.2813], ["2023-06-04", 0.3235], ["2023-06-04", 0.3182], ["2023-06-04", 0.3153], ["2023-06-04", 0.3033], ["2023-06-04", 0.3053], ["2023-06-04", 0.29], ["2023-06-05", 0.289], ["2023-06-05", 0.2752], ["2023-06-05", 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0.1747], ["2023-10-26", 0.1694], ["2023-10-26", 0.1664], ["2023-10-27", 0.1636], ["2023-10-27", 0.1545], ["2023-10-27", 0.1509], ["2023-10-27", 0.1506], ["2023-10-27", 0.1285], ["2023-10-29", 0.127], ["2023-10-29", 0.1088], ["2023-10-30", 0.1071], ["2023-10-30", 0.105], ["2023-10-30", 0.0859], ["2023-10-31", 0.08], ["2023-10-31", 0.0744], ["2023-10-31", 0.0741], ["2023-10-31", 0.0738], ["2023-10-31", 0.0726], ["2023-10-31", 0.0512], ["2023-11-01", 0.0482], ["2023-11-01", 0.0469], ["2023-11-01", 0.0403], ["2023-11-01", 0.04], ["2023-11-01", 0.04]] | ["https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo-prime-minister-albin-kurti-banjska-tensions-serbia-rise/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standoff-with-serbs-continues-15-years-after-statehood", "https://balkaninsight.com/2023/10/09/in-kosovo-clash-new-bullets-and-freshly-repaired-mortars-from-serbia/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/30/vucic-wants-war-kosovo-pm-accuses-belgrade-of-inciting-violence", "https://www.dw.com/en/no-breakthrough-in-latest-round-of-serbia-kosovo-talks/a-66816626", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/18/eu-usa-violence-vucic-serbia-kosovo/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/30/europe/kosovo-tensions-military-buid-up-explainer-intl/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/29/nato-says-it-has-authorized-bolstering-of-forces-for-kosovo", "https://twitter.com/AeraofWars/status/1706011479689097531", "https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-dialogue-tensions-eu-us-eda7a7e4114b9f4005d218d34f5a9912", "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/3/are-kosovo-and-serbia-on-the-brink-of-war", "https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-tension-eu-us-cf2637072cd88f3bcf0d902236d3631b", "https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-kfor-nato-tension-border-kurti-bf141c89dfd3a70dfa4a0c9efac9acb9", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/17/kosovo-serbia-leaders-talks-diplomacy", "https://www.ft.com/content/92e0416b-046a-47dd-a785-07091e63277a", "https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkamxy/kosovo-serbia-war-mitrovica-banjska-monastery-siege", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/europe/kosovo-serbia-troops-nato.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/serbia-reduces-army-presence-near-kosovo-after-us-expressed-concern-/7293876.html", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_216071.htm", "https://www.voanews.com/a/us-warns-of-large-serbian-military-buildup-near-kosovo-/7291193.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/us/politics/white-house-serbia-kosovo.html", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kosovo-police-conduct-raids-serb-dominated-north-clashes-103589461", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Security_Force#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Law%20on,based%20on%20strategic%20defense%20reviews", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/european-leaders-urge-serbia-to-de-facto-recognise-kosovo/ar-AA1iYjCs"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2708 |
<p>With a political fight looming over the US debt ceiling, there are concerns that US credit ratings could be downgraded (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3809357-nation-closing-in-on-31-4t-borrowing-limit/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-us-department-of-the-treasury-business-84ef9d1c5803bd25e8e9cc3538cd0ab2" target="_blank">AP</a>). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditrating.asp#toc-credit-ratings-scale" target="_blank">Investopedia - Credit Rating</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rating" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch would count (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-watch.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Negative Watch</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/)." target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span></a><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-25 | Will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings or outlooks for the United States in 2023? | 2023-01-13 | [["2023-01-13", 0.15], ["2023-01-13", 0.085], ["2023-01-13", 0.1067], ["2023-01-13", 0.33], ["2023-01-13", 0.274], ["2023-01-13", 0.2367], ["2023-01-13", 0.235], ["2023-01-14", 0.2014], ["2023-01-14", 0.2013], ["2023-01-14", 0.29], ["2023-01-14", 0.261], ["2023-01-14", 0.2591], ["2023-01-14", 0.25], ["2023-01-14", 0.2385], ["2023-01-14", 0.2214], ["2023-01-14", 0.2067], ["2023-01-15", 0.1938], ["2023-01-15", 0.1829], ["2023-01-15", 0.1728], ["2023-01-15", 0.1663], ["2023-01-15", 0.161], ["2023-01-15", 0.161], ["2023-01-15", 0.1557], ["2023-01-15", 0.1532], ["2023-01-16", 0.1514], ["2023-01-16", 0.1457], ["2023-01-16", 0.1417], ["2023-01-16", 0.1413], ["2023-01-16", 0.1457], ["2023-01-17", 0.1811], ["2023-01-17", 0.1347], ["2023-01-18", 0.1818], ["2023-01-18", 0.1909], ["2023-01-18", 0.225], ["2023-01-18", 0.2492], ["2023-01-18", 0.25], ["2023-01-19", 0.2517], ["2023-01-19", 0.2508], ["2023-01-20", 0.2492], ["2023-01-20", 0.2742], ["2023-01-21", 0.2923], ["2023-01-21", 0.2977], ["2023-01-21", 0.2969], ["2023-01-22", 0.3662], ["2023-01-23", 0.3864], ["2023-01-23", 0.3864], ["2023-01-23", 0.3857], ["2023-01-24", 0.4386], ["2023-01-24", 0.4421], ["2023-01-24", 0.4621], ["2023-01-24", 0.4647], ["2023-01-25", 0.466], ["2023-01-25", 0.4687], ["2023-01-25", 0.468], ["2023-01-25", 0.478], ["2023-01-25", 0.4667], ["2023-01-26", 0.4375], ["2023-01-26", 0.4406], ["2023-01-27", 0.4781], ["2023-01-27", 0.4413], ["2023-01-27", 0.4171], ["2023-01-28", 0.4018], ["2023-01-28", 0.3724], ["2023-01-28", 0.3718], ["2023-01-29", 0.3567], ["2023-01-29", 0.3561], ["2023-01-30", 0.3311], ["2023-01-30", 0.3117], ["2023-01-31", 0.3039], ["2023-01-31", 0.2789], ["2023-02-01", 0.2722], ["2023-02-01", 0.2711], ["2023-02-01", 0.2574], ["2023-02-01", 0.2837], ["2023-02-02", 0.2821], ["2023-02-03", 0.2768], ["2023-02-04", 0.2753], ["2023-02-04", 0.2642], ["2023-02-05", 0.2535], ["2023-02-05", 0.229], ["2023-02-05", 0.2265], ["2023-02-06", 0.2235], ["2023-02-07", 0.223], ["2023-02-07", 0.213], ["2023-02-08", 0.2085], ["2023-02-08", 0.208], ["2023-02-12", 0.208], ["2023-02-12", 0.1855], ["2023-02-12", 0.183], ["2023-02-13", 0.188], ["2023-02-13", 0.162], ["2023-02-13", 0.1515], ["2023-02-14", 0.159], ["2023-02-15", 0.161], ["2023-02-15", 0.1735], ["2023-02-16", 0.17], ["2023-02-17", 0.168], ["2023-02-18", 0.168], ["2023-02-20", 0.165], ["2023-02-22", 0.1595], ["2023-02-26", 0.1595], ["2023-02-26", 0.1538], ["2023-02-26", 0.141], ["2023-02-27", 0.1319], ["2023-02-27", 0.1668], ["2023-02-28", 0.1723], ["2023-03-01", 0.1723], ["2023-03-01", 0.1778], ["2023-03-01", 0.1539], ["2023-03-04", 0.1617], ["2023-03-05", 0.1617], ["2023-03-07", 0.1679], ["2023-03-10", 0.1679], ["2023-03-11", 0.1679], ["2023-03-11", 0.1788], ["2023-03-11", 0.1808], ["2023-03-13", 0.1817], ["2023-03-16", 0.1825], ["2023-03-16", 0.1783], ["2023-03-17", 0.1783], ["2023-03-17", 0.1775], ["2023-03-19", 0.1854], ["2023-03-20", 0.1863], ["2023-03-20", 0.1854], ["2023-03-21", 0.1867], ["2023-03-23", 0.1858], ["2023-03-24", 0.1858], ["2023-03-26", 0.1829], ["2023-03-29", 0.1833], ["2023-04-01", 0.1833], ["2023-04-07", 0.1833], ["2023-04-09", 0.1833], ["2023-04-13", 0.1833], ["2023-04-13", 0.1817], ["2023-04-17", 0.1808], ["2023-04-23", 0.1871], ["2023-04-24", 0.1871], ["2023-04-24", 0.1871], ["2023-04-24", 0.1888], ["2023-04-25", 0.19], ["2023-04-29", 0.1908], ["2023-05-02", 0.1925], ["2023-05-09", 0.1925], ["2023-05-11", 0.1904], ["2023-05-12", 0.2196], ["2023-05-13", 0.2254], ["2023-05-15", 0.2288], ["2023-05-15", 0.2288], ["2023-05-15", 0.2292], ["2023-05-19", 0.2304], ["2023-05-19", 0.2329], ["2023-05-20", 0.2329], ["2023-05-23", 0.2554], ["2023-05-23", 0.2608], ["2023-05-24", 0.2608]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-debt-downgrade/united-states-loses-prized-aaa-credit-rating-from-sp-idUSTRE7746VF20110806", "https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/USA/credit_rating/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades#2020", "http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903366504576490841235575386.html", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/02/06/investing/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-debt-default/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-limit-negotiations-take-time-agreement-expected-moodys-2023-01-19/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades#2013", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades#2011", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847 |
<p>The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W" target="_blank">EIA</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-03-02 | Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? | 2020-11-17 | [["2020-11-17", 1.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.5], ["2020-11-17", 0.15], ["2020-11-17", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.07], ["2020-11-17", 0.06], ["2020-11-17", 0.07], ["2020-11-17", 0.11], ["2020-11-17", 0.15], ["2020-11-17", 0.11], ["2020-11-18", 0.085], ["2020-11-18", 0.125], ["2020-11-18", 0.175], ["2020-11-18", 0.35], ["2020-11-18", 0.35], ["2020-11-18", 0.55], ["2020-11-18", 0.55], ["2020-11-18", 0.525], ["2020-11-18", 0.525], ["2020-11-18", 0.525], ["2020-11-18", 0.525], ["2020-11-18", 0.525], ["2020-11-18", 0.35], ["2020-11-18", 0.225], ["2020-11-18", 0.35], ["2020-11-18", 0.25], ["2020-11-18", 0.25], ["2020-11-18", 0.18], ["2020-11-18", 0.215], ["2020-11-19", 0.215], ["2020-11-19", 0.215], ["2020-11-19", 0.215], ["2020-11-19", 0.215], ["2020-11-19", 0.18], ["2020-11-19", 0.25], ["2020-11-19", 0.365], ["2020-11-19", 0.225], ["2020-11-20", 0.225], ["2020-11-20", 0.2], ["2020-11-20", 0.2], ["2020-11-20", 0.2], ["2020-11-20", 0.2], ["2020-11-20", 0.22], ["2020-11-20", 0.22], ["2020-11-20", 0.2], ["2020-11-21", 0.2], ["2020-11-21", 0.2], ["2020-11-21", 0.24], ["2020-11-21", 0.24], ["2020-11-21", 0.22], ["2020-11-21", 0.22], ["2020-11-21", 0.245], ["2020-11-21", 0.255], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-23", 0.25], ["2020-11-23", 0.25], ["2020-11-23", 0.245], ["2020-11-24", 0.245], ["2020-11-24", 0.245], ["2020-11-24", 0.245], ["2020-11-24", 0.24], ["2020-11-24", 0.15], ["2020-11-24", 0.15], ["2020-11-24", 0.15], ["2020-11-24", 0.145], ["2020-11-25", 0.155], ["2020-11-25", 0.155], ["2020-11-25", 0.155], ["2020-11-25", 0.155], ["2020-11-25", 0.155], ["2020-11-26", 0.155], ["2020-11-26", 0.16], ["2020-11-27", 0.16], ["2020-11-27", 0.155], ["2020-11-27", 0.155], ["2020-11-27", 0.15], ["2020-11-27", 0.15], ["2020-11-28", 0.15], ["2020-11-29", 0.15], ["2020-11-29", 0.15], ["2020-11-29", 0.145], ["2020-11-30", 0.145], ["2020-11-30", 0.145], ["2020-11-30", 0.155], ["2020-11-30", 0.155], ["2020-11-30", 0.155], ["2020-11-30", 0.155], ["2020-12-01", 0.155], ["2020-12-01", 0.155], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-01", 0.15], ["2020-12-01", 0.155], ["2020-12-01", 0.155], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-01", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.18], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-02", 0.16], ["2020-12-03", 0.18], ["2020-12-03", 0.2], ["2020-12-03", 0.18], ["2020-12-03", 0.18], ["2020-12-04", 0.2], ["2020-12-04", 0.18], ["2020-12-04", 0.18], ["2020-12-04", 0.19], ["2020-12-04", 0.18], ["2020-12-04", 0.19], ["2020-12-05", 0.19], ["2020-12-05", 0.2], ["2020-12-05", 0.2], ["2020-12-05", 0.2], ["2020-12-06", 0.19], ["2020-12-07", 0.18], ["2020-12-07", 0.18], ["2020-12-07", 0.18], ["2020-12-07", 0.17], ["2020-12-07", 0.16], ["2020-12-07", 0.16], ["2020-12-07", 0.16], ["2020-12-07", 0.17], ["2020-12-07", 0.155], ["2020-12-07", 0.155], ["2020-12-08", 0.155], ["2020-12-08", 0.155], ["2020-12-08", 0.15], ["2020-12-08", 0.165], ["2020-12-09", 0.15], ["2020-12-09", 0.15], ["2020-12-09", 0.15], ["2020-12-09", 0.145], ["2020-12-10", 0.145], 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True | 2022-10-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2505 |
<p>After parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021, the country has yet to, among other things, elect a new president (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/iraq-lawmakers-fail-for-third-time-to-elect-new-president-/6508999.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/3/iraqs-sadrists-told-to-withdraw-from-parliament" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/08/02/timeline-iraqs-slide-to-crisis-after-octobers-disputed-elections/" target="_blank">The National</a>). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president due to vacancy in accordance with the constitution would not count (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Iraq_2005.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Iraqi Constitution</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-14 | Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022? | 2022-08-04 | [["2022-08-05", 0.75], ["2022-08-05", 0.875], ["2022-08-05", 0.75], ["2022-08-05", 0.48], ["2022-08-05", 0.75], ["2022-08-05", 0.48], ["2022-08-06", 0.21], ["2022-08-07", 0.155], ["2022-08-07", 0.1], ["2022-08-08", 0.125], ["2022-08-08", 0.1], ["2022-08-08", 0.095], ["2022-08-08", 0.085], ["2022-08-08", 0.085], ["2022-08-09", 0.055], ["2022-08-09", 0.055], ["2022-08-10", 0.055], ["2022-08-10", 0.045], ["2022-08-10", 0.075], ["2022-08-10", 0.055], ["2022-08-10", 0.055], ["2022-08-11", 0.045], ["2022-08-13", 0.045], ["2022-08-16", 0.045], ["2022-08-17", 0.06], ["2022-08-20", 0.138], ["2022-08-23", 0.146], ["2022-08-24", 0.145], ["2022-08-24", 0.144], ["2022-08-25", 0.131], ["2022-08-26", 0.132], ["2022-08-27", 0.125], ["2022-08-28", 0.127], ["2022-08-29", 0.125], ["2022-08-29", 0.124], ["2022-08-29", 0.119], ["2022-08-29", 0.106], ["2022-08-30", 0.121], ["2022-08-30", 0.126], ["2022-08-30", 0.12], ["2022-08-31", 0.115], ["2022-08-31", 0.114], ["2022-09-01", 0.124], ["2022-09-01", 0.126], ["2022-09-02", 0.134], ["2022-09-02", 0.135], ["2022-09-03", 0.134], ["2022-09-04", 0.135], ["2022-09-06", 0.07], ["2022-09-06", 0.069], ["2022-09-06", 0.064], ["2022-09-07", 0.109], ["2022-09-09", 0.108], ["2022-09-09", 0.195], ["2022-09-11", 0.193], ["2022-09-12", 0.194], ["2022-09-12", 0.181], ["2022-09-13", 0.181], ["2022-09-13", 0.18], ["2022-09-15", 0.179], ["2022-09-17", 0.122], ["2022-09-18", 0.132], ["2022-09-23", 0.103], ["2022-09-24", 0.103], ["2022-09-25", 0.086], ["2022-09-29", 0.086], ["2022-09-30", 0.085], ["2022-10-01", 0.085], ["2022-10-02", 0.077], ["2022-10-02", 0.07], ["2022-10-03", 0.0673], ["2022-10-04", 0.0691], ["2022-10-04", 0.0364], ["2022-10-05", 0.0355], ["2022-10-05", 0.0325], ["2022-10-08", 0.0317], ["2022-10-09", 0.0308], ["2022-10-10", 0.0242], ["2022-10-11", 0.0225], ["2022-10-13", 0.0225]] | ["https://www.wionews.com/world/dissolve-the-parliament-influential-shiite-leader-moqtada-sadr-calls-for-fresh-elections-in-iraq-503371", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/29/al-sadr-withdraws-from-iraqi-politics-after-months-of-tensions", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/14/iraqi-judiciary-says-it-has-no-powers-to-dissolve-parliament", "https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/8/3/iraqs-sadr-says-parliament-sit-in-to-continue-until-demands-met", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/08/iraqs-sadr-sets-deadline-dissolve-parliament", "https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220804-what-is-iraqi-cleric-sadr-s-latest-political-endgame", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Iraqi_parliamentary_election", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-62719497", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/13/iraqi-parliament-elects-new-president-abdul-latif-rashid"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2582 |
<p>Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-11/iran-protests-over-womans-death-persist-despite-crackdown-oil-workers-strike" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://time.com/6221004/iran-protests-mahsa-amini-change/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/no-hope-for-the-future-economic-struggles-add-fuel-to-irans-protests-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Whether or not Khamenei has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-15 | Before 15 April 2023, will Ali Khamenei either flee Iran or cease to be its supreme leader? | 2022-10-13 | [["2022-10-14", 0.35], ["2022-10-14", 0.34], ["2022-10-14", 0.22], ["2022-10-14", 0.4133], ["2022-10-14", 0.335], ["2022-10-14", 0.325], ["2022-10-14", 0.3275], ["2022-10-14", 0.402], ["2022-10-14", 0.404], ["2022-10-14", 0.3867], ["2022-10-14", 0.395], ["2022-10-14", 0.3933], ["2022-10-14", 0.3629], ["2022-10-14", 0.36], ["2022-10-14", 0.3163], ["2022-10-14", 0.2978], ["2022-10-14", 0.2956], ["2022-10-14", 0.366], ["2022-10-15", 0.3436], ["2022-10-15", 0.3264], ["2022-10-15", 0.32], ["2022-10-15", 0.3038], ["2022-10-15", 0.2829], ["2022-10-15", 0.2707], ["2022-10-15", 0.2719], ["2022-10-15", 0.2847], ["2022-10-15", 0.2717], ["2022-10-16", 0.2772], ["2022-10-16", 0.2784], ["2022-10-16", 0.2795], ["2022-10-16", 0.2686], ["2022-10-16", 0.27], ["2022-10-16", 0.2639], 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["2023-04-08", 0.0374], ["2023-04-09", 0.0368], ["2023-04-10", 0.0356], ["2023-04-11", 0.0356], ["2023-04-11", 0.0356], ["2023-04-11", 0.0356], ["2023-04-12", 0.0353], ["2023-04-12", 0.035], ["2023-04-12", 0.035], ["2023-04-12", 0.0038], ["2023-04-13", 0.0036], ["2023-04-13", 0.0036], ["2023-04-14", 0.0036], ["2023-04-15", 0.0024], ["2023-04-15", 0.0024]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei", "https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1581349672752656386", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evin_Prison", "https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/shah-flees-iran", "https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/t-distribution", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/10/06/we-have-a-pretty-good-idea-of-when-humans-will-go-extinct/):", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK441975/", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220925-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-s-health-issues-prompt-fresh-speculation-on-succession", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/4/iran-suspends-morality-police-what-does-it-mean", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm6RBTu2zRU", "http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~hqxu/stat100B/ch8part1.pdf", "https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/925420/oil_and_the_duration_of_dictatorships.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-6-2023", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-12-2023", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Iranian_protests"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-06 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1507 |
<p>Washington state law requires Electoral College voters to cast their ballots for the presidential candidates from their party who won the popular vote in the state, but in 2016 four electors cast their votes for others and were fined (<a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/four-washington-electors-break-ranks-and-dont-vote-for-clinton/" target="_blank">Seattle Times</a>). The electors sued, claiming that the fine violated various provisions of the federal constitution (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2019/19-465" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The state supreme court upheld the fine, and this Supreme Court appeal followed (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/in-re-guerra-872011" target="_blank">Casetext</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/chiafalo-v-washington/">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-06 | In Chiafalo v. 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True | 2023-07-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2695 |
<p>The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation throughout 2022, which has raised fears of a potential recession in 2023 (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/18/fed-raise-interest-rates-higher-hikes-expected/10912296002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-14/fed-set-to-slow-pace-of-rate-hikes-as-inflation-grinch-loses-steam" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which raised the upper range of the federal funds rate to 4.50% at its December 2022 meeting and released a new Summary of Economic Projections (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20221214a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement December 2022</a>, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Summary of Economic Projections December 2022</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-26 | Will the upper limit of the US federal funds target range reach or exceed 5.50% before 21 September 2023? | 2023-01-05 | [["2023-01-06", 0.16], ["2023-01-06", 0.18], ["2023-01-06", 0.27], ["2023-01-06", 0.255], ["2023-01-06", 0.2267], ["2023-01-06", 0.2718], ["2023-01-07", 0.23], ["2023-01-07", 0.2186], ["2023-01-07", 0.2044], ["2023-01-07", 0.24], ["2023-01-07", 0.2189], ["2023-01-07", 0.2189], ["2023-01-07", 0.165], ["2023-01-07", 0.1709], ["2023-01-08", 0.1633], ["2023-01-08", 0.1931], ["2023-01-08", 0.2015], ["2023-01-09", 0.2066], ["2023-01-09", 0.1987], ["2023-01-09", 0.2193], ["2023-01-09", 0.221], ["2023-01-09", 0.2277], ["2023-01-10", 0.2552], ["2023-01-10", 0.255], ["2023-01-10", 0.2477], ["2023-01-10", 0.2768], ["2023-01-11", 0.2948], ["2023-01-12", 0.344], ["2023-01-12", 0.3538], ["2023-01-12", 0.3504], ["2023-01-12", 0.3375], ["2023-01-12", 0.3352], 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["2023-07-08", 0.9206], ["2023-07-08", 0.9217], ["2023-07-09", 0.9245], ["2023-07-10", 0.9281], ["2023-07-11", 0.9315], ["2023-07-11", 0.9481], ["2023-07-11", 0.9517], ["2023-07-12", 0.9535], ["2023-07-12", 0.9454], ["2023-07-14", 0.9465], ["2023-07-15", 0.949], ["2023-07-16", 0.9494], ["2023-07-17", 0.9502], ["2023-07-19", 0.9686], ["2023-07-19", 0.9714], ["2023-07-20", 0.9724], ["2023-07-20", 0.9727], ["2023-07-21", 0.9739], ["2023-07-21", 0.9741], ["2023-07-22", 0.9745], ["2023-07-24", 0.9757], ["2023-07-25", 0.9769], ["2023-07-25", 0.9769], ["2023-07-25", 0.9771], ["2023-07-26", 0.9588], ["2023-07-26", 0.9602], ["2023-07-26", 0.96], ["2023-07-26", 0.961]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230322a.htm", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/fed-chair-powell-says-rates-may-not-have-to-rise-as-much-as-expected-to-curb-inflation.html", "https://insiderpaper.com/another-fed-official-indicates-support-for-us-rate-hike/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/fed-seen-hiking-final-time-to-a-22-year-peak-in-economist-survey#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-slide-as-fresh-jobs-strength-adds-to-fed-hike-consensus-stock-market-news-today-200120760.html", "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/another-fed-rate-hike-could-be-play-june-meeting", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230614.htm", "https://www.axios.com/2023/07/05/federal-reserve-interest-rates-june-2023", "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/16/why-declaring-victory-over-inflation-too-soon-may-be-a-mistake.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-11/fed-set-to-signal-pause-isn-t-a-stop-in-bid-to-placate-hawks?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-powell-faces-political-storm-policy-minefield-over-svb-oversight-2023-03-22/", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230322.htm", "https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-11/fed-set-to-signal-pause-isn-t-a-stop-in-bid-to-placate-hawks?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY4NjUwMDQ0OCwiZXhwIjoxNjg3MTA1MjQ4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJSVlU1MFpEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIxMjc5OUVBQUVFRjA0RUZCQUQyRkQxQzY4NERFNkExMSJ9.ypMWc8VJQAYv1oF32k8Esk3ssxOQCvXNU2w4rxCB17c", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/global-rate-hike-endgame-is-now-haunted-by-recession-worries?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-open-another-rate-hike-120000785.html", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3991413-federal-reserve-hikes-rate-by-25-basis-points-to-highest-level-in-22-years", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-25/how-high-will-interest-rates-go-who-at-the-fed-wants-to-keep-raising"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1614 |
<p>Two major figures in Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's cabinet left office in April, which has raised speculation that Paulo Guedes, the Minister of the Economy, may be next (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/24/brazil-stocks-tank-as-famous-car-wash-judge-sergio-moro-quits-government/#2b6dfb7530ec" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/brazil-bulls-turn-bearish-as-star-minister-exit-fuels-new-crisis" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-minister-analysis/bolsonaro-clips-wings-of-guedes-as-generals-unveil-stimulus-idUSKCN2253JA" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17342/edition2020bolsonaro-effect-brazil" target="_blank">Economist</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-12-01 | Will Paulo Guedes cease to be Brazil's Minister of the Economy before 1 December 2020? | 2020-05-07 | [["2020-05-08", 0.7], ["2020-05-08", 0.54], ["2020-05-08", 0.54], ["2020-05-08", 0.6], ["2020-05-09", 0.54], ["2020-05-09", 0.615], ["2020-05-09", 0.63], ["2020-05-09", 0.65], ["2020-05-09", 0.685], ["2020-05-09", 0.715], ["2020-05-10", 0.685], ["2020-05-10", 0.785], ["2020-05-10", 0.785], ["2020-05-10", 0.81], ["2020-05-10", 0.81], ["2020-05-11", 0.81], ["2020-05-11", 0.81], ["2020-05-11", 0.85], ["2020-05-11", 0.8], ["2020-05-11", 0.75], ["2020-05-11", 0.725], ["2020-05-12", 0.725], ["2020-05-12", 0.68], ["2020-05-13", 0.65], ["2020-05-13", 0.56], ["2020-05-14", 0.535], ["2020-05-14", 0.535], ["2020-05-14", 0.535], ["2020-05-14", 0.535], ["2020-05-14", 0.51], ["2020-05-15", 0.535], ["2020-05-15", 0.565], ["2020-05-17", 0.6], ["2020-05-17", 0.6], ["2020-05-18", 0.73], ["2020-05-19", 0.73], ["2020-05-20", 0.73], ["2020-05-20", 0.73], ["2020-05-21", 0.73], ["2020-05-21", 0.73], ["2020-05-22", 0.73], ["2020-05-22", 0.73], ["2020-05-23", 0.73], ["2020-05-23", 0.73], ["2020-05-23", 0.73], ["2020-05-26", 0.73], ["2020-05-27", 0.73], ["2020-05-28", 0.63], ["2020-05-30", 0.605], ["2020-05-31", 0.605], ["2020-06-01", 0.55], ["2020-06-01", 0.43], ["2020-06-02", 0.36], ["2020-06-02", 0.36], ["2020-06-02", 0.25], ["2020-06-03", 0.25], ["2020-06-04", 0.25], ["2020-06-05", 0.25], ["2020-06-07", 0.25], ["2020-06-07", 0.25], ["2020-06-07", 0.25], ["2020-06-08", 0.25], ["2020-06-09", 0.25], ["2020-06-09", 0.17], ["2020-06-10", 0.15], ["2020-06-11", 0.15], ["2020-06-12", 0.15], ["2020-06-12", 0.15], ["2020-06-13", 0.155], ["2020-06-13", 0.155], ["2020-06-15", 0.15], ["2020-06-15", 0.16], ["2020-06-16", 0.16], ["2020-06-16", 0.16], ["2020-06-16", 0.16], ["2020-06-16", 0.16], ["2020-06-16", 0.23], ["2020-06-17", 0.25], ["2020-06-18", 0.275], ["2020-06-18", 0.25], ["2020-06-22", 0.25], ["2020-06-24", 0.3], ["2020-06-24", 0.315], ["2020-06-25", 0.315], ["2020-06-26", 0.315], ["2020-06-27", 0.465], ["2020-06-27", 0.465], ["2020-06-28", 0.5], ["2020-06-29", 0.465], ["2020-06-30", 0.465], ["2020-06-30", 0.465], ["2020-07-01", 0.455], ["2020-07-01", 0.455], ["2020-07-03", 0.465], ["2020-07-04", 0.465], ["2020-07-04", 0.43], ["2020-07-05", 0.415], ["2020-07-06", 0.395], ["2020-07-07", 0.415], ["2020-07-07", 0.465], ["2020-07-08", 0.5], ["2020-07-08", 0.465], ["2020-07-09", 0.465], ["2020-07-09", 0.465], ["2020-07-10", 0.43], ["2020-07-11", 0.43], ["2020-07-12", 0.42], ["2020-07-13", 0.42], ["2020-07-13", 0.38], ["2020-07-14", 0.33], ["2020-07-15", 0.33], ["2020-07-15", 0.33], ["2020-07-16", 0.33], ["2020-07-16", 0.33], ["2020-07-17", 0.33], ["2020-07-17", 0.3], ["2020-07-18", 0.3], ["2020-07-19", 0.3], ["2020-07-20", 0.3], ["2020-07-21", 0.27], ["2020-07-22", 0.25], ["2020-07-23", 0.24], ["2020-07-24", 0.22], ["2020-07-25", 0.22], ["2020-07-26", 0.22], ["2020-07-28", 0.22], ["2020-07-28", 0.22], ["2020-07-31", 0.22], ["2020-08-01", 0.22], ["2020-08-02", 0.22], ["2020-08-04", 0.22], ["2020-08-05", 0.21], ["2020-08-05", 0.2], ["2020-08-06", 0.2], ["2020-08-07", 0.2], ["2020-08-08", 0.18], ["2020-08-09", 0.18], ["2020-08-09", 0.18], ["2020-08-10", 0.17], ["2020-08-11", 0.13], ["2020-08-12", 0.11], ["2020-08-12", 0.15], ["2020-08-12", 0.15], ["2020-08-12", 0.17], ["2020-08-13", 0.18], ["2020-08-13", 0.175], ["2020-08-15", 0.175], ["2020-08-19", 0.175], ["2020-08-19", 0.175], ["2020-08-20", 0.175], ["2020-08-21", 0.16], ["2020-08-22", 0.14], ["2020-08-22", 0.14], ["2020-08-23", 0.12], ["2020-08-23", 0.115], ["2020-08-24", 0.115], ["2020-08-25", 0.1], ["2020-08-26", 0.1], ["2020-08-27", 0.1], ["2020-08-27", 0.1], ["2020-08-28", 0.1], ["2020-08-28", 0.11], ["2020-08-29", 0.125], ["2020-08-29", 0.135], ["2020-08-29", 0.15], ["2020-08-30", 0.13], ["2020-08-30", 0.11], ["2020-08-31", 0.13], ["2020-08-31", 0.145], ["2020-09-01", 0.155], ["2020-09-02", 0.155], ["2020-09-02", 0.155], ["2020-09-02", 0.155], ["2020-09-03", 0.155], ["2020-09-03", 0.155], ["2020-09-03", 0.15], ["2020-09-03", 0.15], ["2020-09-04", 0.14], ["2020-09-04", 0.15], ["2020-09-04", 0.14], ["2020-09-04", 0.11], ["2020-09-05", 0.11], ["2020-09-05", 0.12], ["2020-09-06", 0.11], ["2020-09-06", 0.115], ["2020-09-07", 0.12], ["2020-09-07", 0.12], ["2020-09-07", 0.12], ["2020-09-07", 0.11], ["2020-09-07", 0.11], ["2020-09-08", 0.11], ["2020-09-08", 0.11], ["2020-09-08", 0.11], ["2020-09-09", 0.11], ["2020-09-09", 0.105], ["2020-09-09", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-10", 0.1], ["2020-09-11", 0.1], ["2020-09-11", 0.1], ["2020-09-12", 0.1], ["2020-09-12", 0.1], ["2020-09-12", 0.1], ["2020-09-13", 0.1], ["2020-09-13", 0.1], ["2020-09-13", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.09], ["2020-09-14", 0.09], ["2020-09-15", 0.085], ["2020-09-15", 0.08], ["2020-09-15", 0.08], ["2020-09-15", 0.08], ["2020-09-15", 0.08], ["2020-09-15", 0.07], ["2020-09-15", 0.06], ["2020-09-15", 0.06], ["2020-09-15", 0.06], ["2020-09-15", 0.06], ["2020-09-16", 0.06], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-16", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-18", 0.06], ["2020-09-18", 0.06], ["2020-09-18", 0.06], ["2020-09-18", 0.06], ["2020-09-19", 0.06], ["2020-09-19", 0.06], ["2020-09-21", 0.06], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-21", 0.06], ["2020-09-22", 0.065], ["2020-09-23", 0.06], ["2020-09-23", 0.065], ["2020-09-24", 0.065], ["2020-09-24", 0.065], ["2020-09-24", 0.065], ["2020-09-25", 0.07], ["2020-09-25", 0.07], ["2020-09-26", 0.07], ["2020-09-27", 0.06], ["2020-09-28", 0.06], ["2020-09-29", 0.07], ["2020-09-30", 0.07], ["2020-10-01", 0.06], ["2020-10-02", 0.06], ["2020-10-03", 0.06], ["2020-10-04", 0.06], ["2020-10-05", 0.06], ["2020-10-06", 0.06], ["2020-10-06", 0.06], ["2020-10-08", 0.06], ["2020-10-09", 0.06], ["2020-10-10", 0.06], ["2020-10-10", 0.06], ["2020-10-13", 0.06], ["2020-10-13", 0.05], ["2020-10-14", 0.05], ["2020-10-15", 0.05], ["2020-10-17", 0.05], ["2020-10-18", 0.05], ["2020-10-19", 0.05], ["2020-10-20", 0.05], ["2020-10-21", 0.05], ["2020-10-24", 0.05], ["2020-10-26", 0.045], ["2020-10-28", 0.045], ["2020-10-29", 0.045], ["2020-10-31", 0.035], ["2020-11-02", 0.035], ["2020-11-04", 0.025], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.015], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-19", 0.005], ["2020-11-20", 0.0], ["2020-11-20", 0.0], ["2020-11-21", 0.0], ["2020-11-22", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815 |
<p>Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (<a href="https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council" target="_blank">Egypt Today</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm" target="_blank">UN</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? | 2020-10-16 | [["2020-10-16", 0.05], ["2020-10-16", 0.3], ["2020-10-16", 0.1], ["2020-10-16", 0.175], ["2020-10-16", 0.1], ["2020-10-16", 0.1], ["2020-10-16", 0.075], ["2020-10-17", 0.05], ["2020-10-17", 0.075], ["2020-10-17", 0.05], ["2020-10-17", 0.05], ["2020-10-18", 0.06], ["2020-10-18", 0.06], ["2020-10-18", 0.06], ["2020-10-18", 0.06], ["2020-10-19", 0.06], ["2020-10-19", 0.06], ["2020-10-19", 0.06], ["2020-10-19", 0.085], ["2020-10-19", 0.085], ["2020-10-19", 0.085], ["2020-10-20", 0.085], ["2020-10-20", 0.12], ["2020-10-20", 0.145], ["2020-10-20", 0.165], ["2020-10-21", 0.165], ["2020-10-22", 0.145], ["2020-10-22", 0.145], ["2020-10-23", 0.145], ["2020-10-24", 0.16], ["2020-10-24", 0.16], ["2020-10-25", 0.145], ["2020-10-26", 0.125], ["2020-10-26", 0.125], ["2020-10-27", 0.1], ["2020-10-27", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.125], ["2020-10-29", 0.15], ["2020-10-30", 0.175], ["2020-10-30", 0.21], ["2020-10-30", 0.175], ["2020-10-31", 0.125], ["2020-11-02", 0.125], ["2020-11-02", 0.125], ["2020-11-02", 0.15], ["2020-11-03", 0.15], ["2020-11-04", 0.15], ["2020-11-05", 0.15], ["2020-11-06", 0.15], ["2020-11-06", 0.15], ["2020-11-06", 0.15], ["2020-11-06", 0.15], ["2020-11-07", 0.15], ["2020-11-07", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-11", 0.15], ["2020-11-11", 0.15], ["2020-11-11", 0.175], ["2020-11-11", 0.175], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-12", 0.13], ["2020-11-12", 0.115], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.085], ["2020-11-14", 0.085], ["2020-11-14", 0.085], ["2020-11-15", 0.085], ["2020-11-15", 0.085], ["2020-11-15", 0.085], ["2020-11-15", 0.085], ["2020-11-15", 0.07], ["2020-11-16", 0.07], ["2020-11-16", 0.07], ["2020-11-16", 0.06], ["2020-11-17", 0.06], ["2020-11-17", 0.07], ["2020-11-17", 0.08], ["2020-11-17", 0.07], ["2020-11-17", 0.07], ["2020-11-18", 0.075], ["2020-11-19", 0.065], ["2020-11-20", 0.065], ["2020-11-21", 0.065], ["2020-11-22", 0.065], ["2020-11-22", 0.06], ["2020-11-23", 0.065], ["2020-11-23", 0.06], ["2020-11-23", 0.06], ["2020-11-23", 0.06], ["2020-11-23", 0.05], ["2020-11-23", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-28", 0.05], ["2020-11-29", 0.05], ["2020-11-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-01", 0.05], ["2020-12-01", 0.05], ["2020-12-01", 0.05], ["2020-12-02", 0.055], ["2020-12-02", 0.055], ["2020-12-03", 0.055], ["2020-12-06", 0.055], ["2020-12-07", 0.055], ["2020-12-07", 0.055], ["2020-12-08", 0.07], ["2020-12-08", 0.07], ["2020-12-09", 0.07], ["2020-12-09", 0.07], ["2020-12-10", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-15", 0.07], ["2020-12-16", 0.07], ["2020-12-17", 0.075], ["2020-12-17", 0.09], ["2020-12-17", 0.09], ["2020-12-18", 0.09], ["2020-12-20", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-22", 0.06], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-25", 0.05], ["2020-12-26", 0.05], ["2020-12-26", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.05], ["2021-01-04", 0.05], ["2021-01-05", 0.05], ["2021-01-07", 0.05], ["2021-01-09", 0.05], ["2021-01-09", 0.05], ["2021-01-10", 0.05], ["2021-01-11", 0.05], ["2021-01-11", 0.05], ["2021-01-11", 0.05], ["2021-01-11", 0.05], ["2021-01-12", 0.05], ["2021-01-14", 0.05], ["2021-01-14", 0.05], ["2021-01-17", 0.05], ["2021-01-17", 0.05], ["2021-01-20", 0.04], ["2021-01-20", 0.04], ["2021-01-20", 0.04], ["2021-01-23", 0.04], ["2021-01-25", 0.04], ["2021-01-25", 0.04], ["2021-01-27", 0.03], ["2021-01-27", 0.03], ["2021-01-29", 0.05], ["2021-01-30", 0.05], ["2021-01-30", 0.05], ["2021-02-01", 0.05], ["2021-02-01", 0.05], ["2021-02-02", 0.04], ["2021-02-03", 0.04], ["2021-02-03", 0.04], ["2021-02-04", 0.04], ["2021-02-05", 0.04], ["2021-02-07", 0.04], ["2021-02-10", 0.04], ["2021-02-10", 0.04], ["2021-02-12", 0.035], ["2021-02-13", 0.035], ["2021-02-14", 0.045], ["2021-02-14", 0.045], ["2021-02-16", 0.04], ["2021-02-16", 0.04], ["2021-02-17", 0.03], ["2021-02-20", 0.02], ["2021-02-21", 0.05], ["2021-02-21", 0.05], ["2021-02-22", 0.05], ["2021-02-23", 0.05], ["2021-02-23", 0.05], ["2021-02-23", 0.05], ["2021-02-24", 0.04], ["2021-02-26", 0.04], ["2021-03-01", 0.04], ["2021-03-02", 0.04], ["2021-03-03", 0.04], ["2021-03-03", 0.04], ["2021-03-07", 0.04], ["2021-03-08", 0.04], ["2021-03-08", 0.02], ["2021-03-09", 0.02], ["2021-03-09", 0.02], ["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-10", 0.01], ["2021-03-17", 0.01], ["2021-03-18", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-26", 0.01], ["2021-03-31", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-03", 0.01], ["2021-04-03", 0.01], ["2021-04-03", 0.01], ["2021-04-04", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-07", 0.01], ["2021-04-08", 0.005], ["2021-04-09", 0.005], ["2021-04-12", 0.005], ["2021-04-13", 0.005], ["2021-04-14", 0.005], ["2021-04-14", 0.005], ["2021-04-15", 0.005], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-21", 0.0], ["2021-04-22", 0.0], ["2021-04-25", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-09", 0.0], ["2021-05-10", 0.0], ["2021-05-11", 0.0], ["2021-05-11", 0.005], ["2021-05-12", 0.01], ["2021-05-15", 0.01], ["2021-05-16", 0.01], ["2021-05-17", 0.01], ["2021-05-19", 0.01], ["2021-05-19", 0.01], ["2021-05-20", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-22", 0.01], ["2021-05-23", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-26", 0.01], ["2021-05-26", 0.01], ["2021-05-28", 0.01], ["2021-05-29", 0.01], ["2021-05-29", 0.01], ["2021-06-01", 0.01], ["2021-06-05", 0.01], ["2021-06-06", 0.01], ["2021-06-06", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.015], ["2021-06-10", 0.015], ["2021-06-13", 0.015], ["2021-06-13", 0.025], ["2021-06-14", 0.025], ["2021-06-15", 0.025], ["2021-06-16", 0.025], ["2021-06-16", 0.025], ["2021-06-17", 0.03], ["2021-06-18", 0.04], ["2021-06-20", 0.035], ["2021-06-22", 0.045], ["2021-06-23", 0.045], ["2021-06-24", 0.045], ["2021-06-28", 0.045], ["2021-06-30", 0.045], ["2021-07-03", 0.045], ["2021-07-03", 0.045], ["2021-07-03", 0.04], ["2021-07-03", 0.05], ["2021-07-06", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-10", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-14", 0.05], ["2021-07-14", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-19", 0.05], ["2021-07-26", 0.05], ["2021-07-27", 0.05], ["2021-07-29", 0.05], ["2021-07-30", 0.05], ["2021-07-31", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-04", 0.05], ["2021-08-06", 0.045], ["2021-08-07", 0.045], ["2021-08-07", 0.04], ["2021-08-07", 0.04], ["2021-08-07", 0.04], ["2021-08-08", 0.045], ["2021-08-08", 0.045], ["2021-08-09", 0.045], ["2021-08-12", 0.045], ["2021-08-16", 0.045], ["2021-08-16", 0.04], ["2021-08-17", 0.04], ["2021-08-17", 0.04], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-21", 0.02], ["2021-08-21", 0.02], ["2021-08-24", 0.02], ["2021-08-24", 0.015], ["2021-08-24", 0.01], ["2021-08-25", 0.01], ["2021-08-26", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-09-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.wionews.com/world/talks-on-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-fail-again-356124", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/50/1203/399228/AlAhram-Weekly/World/Sudan-vs-Ethiopia-The-luxury-of-war.aspx", "https://www.ethioembassy.org.uk/press-release-on-the-trilateral-negotiations-on-the-gerd/", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1791031/middle-east", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/sudan-looks-for-alternatives-as-nile-dam-talks-stall/2114336", "https://www.theafricareport.com/86356/ethiopia-gerd-what-would-push-egypts-sisi-to-resort-to-force/", "https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1360344363348480002", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-12/egypt-addresses-letter-to-un-security-council", "https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/sudan-asks-un-security-council-meet-over-ethiopias-blue-nile-dam-2021-06-22/", "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-03-05-could-new-mediators-finally-resolve-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-dispute/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/7/egypt-warns-ethiopia-of-potential-for-conflict-over-blue-nile-dam", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-03/18/c_139817785.htm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/ethiopia-moves-artillery-to-sudanese-border-after-deadly-clashes", "https://www.voanews.com/africa/sudan-requests-un-us-eu-help-resolve-dam-conflict-ethiopia", "https://www.theafricareport.com/86352/ethiopia-egypt-the-impressive-feat-of-engineering-that-is-the-gerd/", "https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/50/1201/416279/AlAhram-Weekly/Egypt/GERD-Back-to-the-Security-Council.aspx", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210130-ethiopia-accuses-sudan-of-occupying-its-lands-fighting-by-proxy-for-third-party/", "https://thearabweekly.com/ethiopia-rejects-sudan-call-outside-mediation-dam-dispute", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/04/16/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-fail-to-break-nile-dam-deadlock/", "https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-africa-business-egypt-sudan-bb3e5fb7a6f60b20c4f7ca5d8cf2eb2a", "https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/01/16/barrage-sur-le-nil-l-egypte-l-ethiopie-et-le-soudan-esquissent-un-compromis_6026068_3212.html", "https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/biden-changes-tack-ethiopias-grand-renaissance-dam/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/24/readout-of-president-joseph-r-biden-jr-call-with-president-abdel-fattah-al-sisi-of-egypt-2/", "https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/us-again-looks-help-resolve-ethiopian-dam-dispute", "https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nil-staudamm-warum-sich-aegypten-der-sudan-und-aethiopien-um-das-nilwasser-streiten-a-0f012290-8d7d-49ef-9880-71bc832025c4"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-03-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1950 |
<p>In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN’s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe (<a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2021/ofcom-revokes-cgtn-licence-to-broadcast-in-uk" target="_blank">Ofcom</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-cgtn-may-no-longer-broadcast-in-germany-after-uk-row/a-56550247" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/full-list/-/conventions/treaty/132/signatures?p_auth=TlFV50gT" target="_blank">Council of Europe</a> [not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c2948fa5-4f3a-4824-87c2-83b4d4152c0e" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-france-cgtn/chinas-state-broadcaster-applies-to-france-for-right-to-air-in-europe-ft-idUSFWN2KP1N7" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/china-global-television-network-cgtn-applies-french-license/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-03-08 | Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022? | 2021-02-26 | [["2021-02-26", 0.9], ["2021-02-26", 0.45], ["2021-02-26", 0.6], ["2021-02-26", 0.68], ["2021-02-27", 0.6], ["2021-02-27", 0.5], ["2021-02-27", 0.6], ["2021-02-27", 0.5], ["2021-02-27", 0.4], ["2021-02-27", 0.375], ["2021-02-27", 0.4], ["2021-02-27", 0.375], ["2021-02-28", 0.35], ["2021-02-28", 0.35], ["2021-02-28", 0.35], ["2021-02-28", 0.375], ["2021-02-28", 0.375], ["2021-02-28", 0.4], ["2021-02-28", 0.375], ["2021-02-28", 0.375], ["2021-02-28", 0.4], ["2021-03-01", 0.4], ["2021-03-01", 0.375], ["2021-03-01", 0.35], ["2021-03-01", 0.35], ["2021-03-01", 0.35], ["2021-03-01", 0.35], ["2021-03-02", 0.4], ["2021-03-02", 0.4], ["2021-03-02", 0.4], ["2021-03-02", 0.4], ["2021-03-03", 0.4], ["2021-03-03", 0.4]] | ["https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2021/03/02/interdite-de-diffusion-au-royaume-uni-cgtn-la-television-internationale-d-etat-chinoise-s-en-remet-a-la-france_6071672_3234.html", "https://www.fidh.org/en/region/asia/china/ngos-call-on-french-media-regulator-to-reject-the-broadcasting", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGTN_(TV_channel)#Links_to_Chinese_Communist_Party", "https://marketresearchtelecast.com/banned-from-broadcasting-in-the-uk-cgtn-chinas-international-state-television-defers-to-france/20071/", "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_cha%C3%AEnes_de_t%C3%A9l%C3%A9vision_en_France", "https://francais.cgtn.com/", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4141731", "https://francais.cgtn.com/channel", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Firewall", "https://www.rirm.org/en/list-of-the-member-authorities/csa-conseil-superieur-de-laudiovisuel/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_China", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#France", "https://thesaxon.org/2020-a-bad-year-for-foreign-journalists-in-china/30279/", "https://www.csa.fr/Informer/Ordres-du-jour-des-assemblees-plenieres/Les-ordres-du-jour-de-mars-2021", "https://information.tv5monde.com/info/australie-un-groupe-de-television-suspend-la-diffusion-de-programmes-de-chaines-chinoises", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_in_France#Viewing_shares", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conseil_sup%C3%A9rieur_de_l%27audiovisuel", "https://www.reuters.com/article/tv-cgtn-allemagne-idFRKBN2AY0D9", "https://www.csa.fr/Informer/Espace-presse/Communiques-de-presse/La-chaine-CGTN-releve-pour-sa-diffusion-en-Europe-de-la-competence-de-la-France", "https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-cgtn-returns-to-german-tv-screens/a-56794408", "https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/12/20/monsieur-schrameck-suspendez-l-attribution-de-la-licence-de-diffusion-a-russia-today_5232472_3232.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/c2948fa5-4f3a-4824-87c2-83b4d4152c0e", "https://www.reuters.com/article/china-france-cgtn/chinas-state-broadcaster-applies-to-france-for-right-to-air-in-europe-ft-idUSFWN2KP1N7", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-11-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900 |
<p>While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong (<a href="https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/" target="_blank">Costa Rica News</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365" target="_blank">The Moscow Times</a>, <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html" target="_blank">Kyiv Post</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government (<a href="http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/" target="_blank">government.ru</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-08 | Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? | 2021-01-15 | [["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 0.8], ["2021-01-15", 0.65], ["2021-01-15", 0.65], ["2021-01-15", 0.72], ["2021-01-16", 0.65], ["2021-01-16", 0.625], ["2021-01-16", 0.65], ["2021-01-16", 0.65], ["2021-01-16", 0.65], ["2021-01-16", 0.715], ["2021-01-16", 0.77], ["2021-01-16", 0.775], ["2021-01-16", 0.78], ["2021-01-16", 0.785], ["2021-01-16", 0.785], ["2021-01-16", 0.79], ["2021-01-17", 0.8], ["2021-01-17", 0.81], ["2021-01-17", 0.8], ["2021-01-17", 0.81], ["2021-01-17", 0.82], ["2021-01-18", 0.86], ["2021-01-18", 0.82], ["2021-01-18", 0.81], ["2021-01-18", 0.82], ["2021-01-18", 0.82], ["2021-01-18", 0.8], ["2021-01-19", 0.82], ["2021-01-19", 0.81], ["2021-01-19", 0.835], ["2021-01-19", 0.85], ["2021-01-20", 0.7], ["2021-01-20", 0.685], ["2021-01-20", 0.685], ["2021-01-21", 0.67], ["2021-01-22", 0.66], ["2021-01-22", 0.66], ["2021-01-22", 0.67], ["2021-01-23", 0.67], ["2021-01-24", 0.67], ["2021-01-24", 0.66], ["2021-01-27", 0.65], ["2021-01-27", 0.6], ["2021-01-27", 0.6], ["2021-01-27", 0.57], ["2021-01-28", 0.445], ["2021-01-28", 0.425], ["2021-01-28", 0.425], ["2021-01-28", 0.5], ["2021-01-30", 0.5], ["2021-01-30", 0.5], ["2021-01-31", 0.5], ["2021-02-01", 0.5], ["2021-02-01", 0.5], ["2021-02-01", 0.5], ["2021-02-01", 0.5], ["2021-02-02", 0.475], ["2021-02-02", 0.475], ["2021-02-03", 0.465], ["2021-02-03", 0.45], ["2021-02-03", 0.495], ["2021-02-04", 0.52], ["2021-02-04", 0.52], ["2021-02-05", 0.54], ["2021-02-05", 0.54], ["2021-02-06", 0.5], ["2021-02-06", 0.5], ["2021-02-07", 0.5], ["2021-02-09", 0.5], ["2021-02-10", 0.5], ["2021-02-11", 0.5], ["2021-02-12", 0.5], ["2021-02-14", 0.5], ["2021-02-18", 0.5], ["2021-02-20", 0.5], ["2021-02-22", 0.495], ["2021-02-24", 0.475], ["2021-02-24", 0.475], ["2021-02-26", 0.45], ["2021-02-28", 0.4], ["2021-02-28", 0.45], ["2021-03-04", 0.45], ["2021-03-06", 0.45], ["2021-03-07", 0.45], ["2021-03-07", 0.4], ["2021-03-07", 0.4], ["2021-03-08", 0.4], ["2021-03-09", 0.4], ["2021-03-11", 0.4], ["2021-03-13", 0.4], ["2021-03-14", 0.35], ["2021-03-15", 0.4], ["2021-03-15", 0.4], ["2021-03-16", 0.4], ["2021-03-16", 0.4], ["2021-03-18", 0.4], ["2021-03-18", 0.4], ["2021-03-19", 0.4], ["2021-03-19", 0.4], ["2021-03-21", 0.4], ["2021-03-21", 0.4], ["2021-03-21", 0.4], ["2021-03-22", 0.415], ["2021-03-22", 0.415], ["2021-03-22", 0.415], ["2021-03-23", 0.415], ["2021-03-23", 0.415], ["2021-03-25", 0.365], ["2021-03-26", 0.365], ["2021-03-27", 0.365], ["2021-03-29", 0.365], ["2021-03-30", 0.365], ["2021-03-31", 0.365], ["2021-03-31", 0.365], ["2021-03-31", 0.365], ["2021-04-01", 0.35], ["2021-04-01", 0.35], ["2021-04-01", 0.35], ["2021-04-03", 0.35], ["2021-04-05", 0.32], ["2021-04-05", 0.32], ["2021-04-06", 0.32], ["2021-04-09", 0.32], ["2021-04-09", 0.32], ["2021-04-09", 0.32], ["2021-04-11", 0.32], ["2021-04-11", 0.32], ["2021-04-12", 0.32], ["2021-04-12", 0.32], ["2021-04-14", 0.32], ["2021-04-17", 0.32], ["2021-04-18", 0.32], ["2021-04-20", 0.32], ["2021-04-20", 0.31], ["2021-04-20", 0.335], ["2021-04-22", 0.325], ["2021-04-22", 0.325], ["2021-04-23", 0.325], ["2021-04-24", 0.325], ["2021-04-25", 0.32], ["2021-04-27", 0.32], ["2021-04-27", 0.3], ["2021-04-28", 0.3], ["2021-04-30", 0.3], ["2021-05-02", 0.3], ["2021-05-03", 0.3], ["2021-05-04", 0.3], ["2021-05-05", 0.3], ["2021-05-05", 0.3], ["2021-05-06", 0.3], ["2021-05-06", 0.29], ["2021-05-07", 0.29], ["2021-05-09", 0.29], ["2021-05-09", 0.29], ["2021-05-10", 0.29], ["2021-05-10", 0.29], ["2021-05-11", 0.25], ["2021-05-13", 0.25], ["2021-05-13", 0.25], ["2021-05-15", 0.24], ["2021-05-16", 0.21], ["2021-05-17", 0.21], ["2021-05-17", 0.21], ["2021-05-18", 0.21], ["2021-05-20", 0.21], ["2021-05-23", 0.21], ["2021-05-25", 0.21], ["2021-05-27", 0.21], ["2021-05-27", 0.2], ["2021-05-27", 0.2], ["2021-05-27", 0.2], ["2021-05-28", 0.21], ["2021-05-29", 0.21], ["2021-05-29", 0.2], ["2021-05-31", 0.2], ["2021-05-31", 0.2], ["2021-05-31", 0.2], ["2021-06-04", 0.2], ["2021-06-08", 0.2], ["2021-06-11", 0.2], ["2021-06-11", 0.2], ["2021-06-13", 0.2], ["2021-06-16", 0.19], ["2021-06-20", 0.19], ["2021-06-21", 0.19], ["2021-06-26", 0.19], ["2021-06-27", 0.19], ["2021-06-28", 0.19], ["2021-06-30", 0.19], ["2021-07-01", 0.19], ["2021-07-01", 0.19], ["2021-07-01", 0.19], ["2021-07-01", 0.18], ["2021-07-02", 0.15], ["2021-07-04", 0.15], ["2021-07-04", 0.13], ["2021-07-05", 0.13], ["2021-07-05", 0.13], ["2021-07-06", 0.13], ["2021-07-07", 0.13], ["2021-07-08", 0.13], ["2021-07-09", 0.13], ["2021-07-11", 0.13], ["2021-07-11", 0.13], ["2021-07-11", 0.12], ["2021-07-15", 0.12], ["2021-07-17", 0.12], ["2021-07-20", 0.1], ["2021-07-21", 0.1], ["2021-07-22", 0.1], ["2021-07-24", 0.1], ["2021-07-25", 0.1], ["2021-07-26", 0.1], ["2021-07-26", 0.1], ["2021-07-27", 0.1], ["2021-07-27", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.09], ["2021-08-01", 0.09], ["2021-08-02", 0.09], ["2021-08-02", 0.07], ["2021-08-03", 0.07], ["2021-08-03", 0.07], ["2021-08-04", 0.07], ["2021-08-04", 0.07], ["2021-08-05", 0.07], ["2021-08-07", 0.065], ["2021-08-08", 0.06], ["2021-08-08", 0.06], ["2021-08-09", 0.06], ["2021-08-12", 0.055], ["2021-08-12", 0.055], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-14", 0.05], ["2021-08-15", 0.05], ["2021-08-17", 0.05], ["2021-08-20", 0.05], ["2021-08-20", 0.05], ["2021-08-21", 0.05], ["2021-08-25", 0.05], ["2021-08-25", 0.05], ["2021-08-30", 0.05], ["2021-08-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-01", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-15", 0.045], ["2021-09-17", 0.045], ["2021-09-19", 0.045], ["2021-09-20", 0.05], ["2021-09-20", 0.045], ["2021-09-25", 0.045], ["2021-09-26", 0.045], ["2021-09-27", 0.045], ["2021-09-27", 0.05], ["2021-09-27", 0.05], ["2021-09-28", 0.05], ["2021-09-28", 0.05], ["2021-09-29", 0.05], ["2021-10-01", 0.04], ["2021-10-01", 0.04], ["2021-10-02", 0.04], ["2021-10-02", 0.04], ["2021-10-03", 0.04], ["2021-10-03", 0.04], ["2021-10-05", 0.03], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-06", 0.03], ["2021-10-08", 0.03], ["2021-10-09", 0.03], ["2021-10-09", 0.03], ["2021-10-10", 0.03], ["2021-10-16", 0.03], ["2021-10-19", 0.02], ["2021-10-19", 0.02], ["2021-10-19", 0.02], ["2021-10-20", 0.02], ["2021-10-21", 0.02], ["2021-10-22", 0.02], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-11-01", 0.01], ["2021-11-01", 0.005], ["2021-11-01", 0.0], ["2021-11-02", 0.0], ["2021-11-02", 0.0], ["2021-11-03", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-06", 0.0], ["2021-11-06", 0.0], ["2021-11-07", 0.0]] | ["https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/07/everything-old-new-russia-returns-nicaragua/", "https://theglobalamericans.org/2019/03/russia-and-nicaragua-progress-in-bilateral-cooperation/", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/11/10/first-foreign-diplomatic-mission-to-open-in-crimea-since-annexation-tass-a72000", "https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/unga-adopt-declaration-pledging-urgent-action-1273347.html", "https://www.internations.org/nicaragua-expats/russians", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365", "https://news.usni.org/2016/05/09/opinion-russian-tank-deal-with-nicaragua-back-to-the-future-moment-for-u-s", "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/health/1580504-nicaragua-approves-russias-sputnik-light-single-dose-vaccine---wealth-fund", "https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-nicaragua-russia/nicaragua-in-talks-to-acquire-russias-sputnik-v-covid-vaccine-says-paho-idUSL1N2JO36Q", "https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/centam/ni-forrel-ru.htm", "https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4816379", "https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Ratifies-Support-To-Produce-Sputnik-V-in-Nicaragua-20210719-0007.html", "https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come", "https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Pledges-Aid-to-Latam-Countries-in-the-Face-of-Threats.-20210624-0023.html", "https://jamestown.org/program/will-nicaragua-become-russias-cuba-of-the-21st-century/", "https://tass.com/russia/698665", "https://tass.com/society/834027", "https://marketresearchtelecast.com/russia-does-not-want-to-replace-anyone-at-any-point-in-the-world-we-just-want-to-maintain-good-relations-with-el-salvador/52918/", "https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-nicaraguas-dangerous-slide-towards-authoritarianism/a-57845048", "https://worldcrunch.com/opinion-analysis/china-and-russia-or-the-west-latin-america-must-choose-a-side-1", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nicaragua-russia/russian-warships-visit-cold-war-ally-nicaragua-idUSTRE4BD00620081214", "https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/closer-than-ever-to-moscow-how-sputnik-v-is-helping-russia-regain-foothold-in-latin-america-20210414-p57j66.html", "https://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/posts/today-the-republic-of-nicaragua-celebrates-its-independence-daythe-ussr-and-nica/2784672414965515/", "https://defesa.com.br/vice-premie-russo-cuba-e-nosso-principal-parceiro-e-aliado-na-america-latina/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua%E2%80%93Russia_relations"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2860 |
<p>While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-international-law-donetsk-9fcd11c11936dd700db94ab725f2b7d6" target="_blank">AP</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-01 | Will Ukraine retake control of either the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson Oblast before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-04-21 | [["2023-04-21", 0.95], ["2023-04-21", 0.7225], ["2023-04-21", 0.5183], ["2023-04-21", 0.395], ["2023-04-21", 0.4433], ["2023-04-21", 0.357], ["2023-04-22", 0.3267], ["2023-04-22", 0.3157], ["2023-04-22", 0.3075], ["2023-04-22", 0.2983], ["2023-04-22", 0.2775], ["2023-04-22", 0.2624], ["2023-04-23", 0.2832], ["2023-04-23", 0.2696], ["2023-04-24", 0.2642], ["2023-04-24", 0.2832], ["2023-04-24", 0.3017], ["2023-04-24", 0.3032], ["2023-04-24", 0.274], ["2023-04-24", 0.2942], ["2023-04-25", 0.3322], ["2023-04-25", 0.3579], ["2023-04-25", 0.3782], ["2023-04-25", 0.4057], ["2023-04-26", 0.3865], ["2023-04-26", 0.3886], ["2023-04-26", 0.3742], ["2023-04-26", 0.4375], ["2023-04-26", 0.435], ["2023-04-27", 0.4362], 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"https://www.dw.com/en/russian-war-in-ukraine-updates-september-29/live-66955550", "https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/23/ukraine-breach-verbove-zaporizhzhia/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2-2023", "https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-liberates-robotyne-zaporizhzhia-oblast/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/", "https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/26/ukraine-continues-counteroffensive-in-western-zaporizhzhia-region", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-training-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia/ar-AA1edW4t", "https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2023/08/10/back-in-the-trenches-2/content.html", "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-24-2023", "https://www.moore.army.mil/Infantry/DoctrineSupplement/ATP3-21.8/appendix_h/ObstacleReduction/ReduceaMinefield/index.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682", "https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/01/isw-ukrainian-forces-press-counteroffensives-in-western-zaporizhia-oblast-and-near-klishchiivka-near-donetsks-bakhmut/", "https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3395940/ukrainian-tank-crews-maintainers-to-begin-training-on-us-m1-abrams-in-germany-s/#:~:text=The%20Defense%20Department%20has%20announced,Russia", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/us/politics/ukraine-troops-counteroffensive-training.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/12/ukraine-fires-missiles-at-kerch-bridge-connecting-crimea-to-russia?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30-2023", "https://www.ft.com/content/e83bd6fe-43b8-4adf-9bea-07609bc223d0", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3767818-russian-forces-shell-kherson.html", "https://news.yahoo.com/russians-deploy-equipment-troops-occupied-080309600.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMYpes_CCs9dp3ZctnHmZ5dqbhlbjqFu88Ig79Fx0tYFU_QEfAuqa9hIKWkNwHpUlISFI-OIS8Fk664ofA-gdCxFEqBc3iMOh-egdamvREz70PHWatxGSwAxL7fIfWx1wiD66UGC0NWhMQUfBhHWLlG_aEeZTgwatRvHxytvMqCp"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2548 |
<p>Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/3639612-john-bolton-says-threat-of-russia-using-nuclear-weapon-closer-than-before/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-18/russia-says-nuclear-weapons-use-possible-only-in-emergency-circumstances" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs" target="_blank">Mass.gov</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 October 2022</span>: "Russian territory" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace? | 2022-09-16 | [["2022-09-16", 0.01], ["2022-09-16", 0.0133], ["2022-09-16", 0.0889], ["2022-09-16", 0.0573], ["2022-09-16", 0.0457], ["2022-09-17", 0.04], ["2022-09-17", 0.0361], ["2022-09-17", 0.0343], ["2022-09-17", 0.03], ["2022-09-17", 0.0273], ["2022-09-17", 0.0369], ["2022-09-17", 0.0522], ["2022-09-18", 0.0535], ["2022-09-18", 0.0527], ["2022-09-18", 0.0515], ["2022-09-19", 0.0493], ["2022-09-19", 0.0481], ["2022-09-19", 0.0464], ["2022-09-19", 0.0467], ["2022-09-19", 0.0449], ["2022-09-20", 0.0616], ["2022-09-20", 0.0665], ["2022-09-20", 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"https://meduza.io/feature/2022/10/08/minoborony-rf-naznachilo-novogo-komanduyuschego-vtorzheniem-i-vpervye-s-nachala-voyny-publichno-nazvala-ego-imya-im-stal", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63900195", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63893316", "https://www.ft.com/content/d6ecbf62-f26d-401f-936b-e5bd85f25c06#", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1538210", "https://www.ft.com/content/f6cb177d-7ba1-48fe-8d79-963d4b32f853", "https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-close-is-vladimir-putin-to-using-a-nuclear-bomb", "https://www.ft.com/content/d6ecbf62-f26d-401f-936b-e5bd85f25c06", "https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war", "https://apnews.com/article/putin-europe-government-and-politics-c541449bf88999c117b033d2de08d26d", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_atomic_bomb_project#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20records%20that,environmental%20and%20public%20health%20consequences", "https://youtu.be/LLCF7vPanrY", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-strengthen-russia-nuclear-forces-ukraine-war-biden-mistake-start-rcna71918", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-terror-tactics-putin-escalates-attacks-on-ukrainian-civilian-targets/", "https://www.economist.com/international/2022/09/29/could-the-war-in-ukraine-go-nuclear", "https://www.npr.org/2022/10/17/1129443703/russias-nuclear-arsenal-is-huge-but-will-putin-use-it", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-questions-putin-russia-use-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-dangerous-rcna54476", "https://www.businessinsider.com/china-putin-russia-nuclear-ukraine-biden-xi-bali-meeting-readouts-2022-11", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554558", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/us/politics/cia-russia-nuclear-weapons.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/putin-belarus-tactical-nuclear-weapons-analysis-hnk-intl/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1527742", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2287-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2023", "https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/nevada-test-site/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20the%20last,space%2C%20and%20in%20the%20atmosphere"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2513 |
<p>As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/will-putin-use-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-20/ukraine-russia-war-why-putin-won-t-use-a-nuclear-weapon" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-chemical-weapons-biden-stoltenberg-ukraine/31766921.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich) (<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10660919/How-Russias-FSB-poison-squad-target-high-profile-victims-displeased-Vladimir-Putin.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 August 2022</span>: For the purposes of this question, tear gas is not considered to be a chemical weapon.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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"https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russian-war-report-russian-false-flag-operation-seeks-to-drag-belarus-into-ukraine-war/", "https://www.google.com/search?q=Russia%27s+use+of+chemical+weapons&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjkxNKak8r5AhWWK0QIHcwIB7sQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1536&bih=722&dpr=1.25", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_chemical_weapons_in_the_Syrian_civil_war#Reported_chemical_weapons_attacks", "https://www.dw.com/en/expert-interview-what-russia-did-in-syria-may-predict-what-happens-next-in-ukraine/a-61477946", "https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/07/07/the-consequences-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-for-international-security-nato-and-beyond/index.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60708350", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/20/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-chemical-terrorism-with-poison", "https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-what-chemical-and-biological-weapons-could-russia-have-and-what-has-it-used-before-12563036", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/did-russia-really-use-chemical-weapons-mariupol-ukraine-expert-remain-sceptical", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSFBd7g-oq0", "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-chemical-weapons-1.6420933", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VKHKNy2u8I", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/could-russia-use-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine-the-threat-is-very-real.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1502 |
<p>Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte entered 2020 after a politically tumultuous year (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/30/italian-pm-calls-for-unity-as-three-senators-move-to-far-right" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/world/europe/italy-conte-government-salvini.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/europe/italy-new-government-five-star-movement-democratic-party-coalition-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Any reappointment of Conte would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. 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"https://www.dw.com/en/italy-prime-minister-giuseppe-conte-loses-senate-majority/a-56216694", "https://bit.ly/33DGqRJ", "https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-government-crisis-reshuffle-giuseppe-conte-matteo-renzi-salvini-luigi-di-maio/", "https://reut.rs/3hsk1wu", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-01-13/italys-government-close-to-collapse-ahead-of-renzi-news-conference", "https://www.thelocal.it/20210113/italian-ministers-quit-sparking-government-crisis"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2302 |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf" target="_blank">Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-15 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.005], ["2022-03-16", 0.005], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.02], ["2022-03-16", 0.02], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], 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"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-eu-an-impasse-over-changes-n-ireland-protocol-2022-04-28/", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stop-posturing-eu-tells-britain-after-threat-to-northern-ireland-protocol-mr58n23kt", "https://www.ft.com/content/b5603f65-ab7a-4893-b9ce-56b92d073915", "https://www.export.org.uk/news/598880/Truss-puts-Article-16-threats-on-hold-as-UK-and-EU-continue-to-prioritise-response-to-Ukraine-crisis.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election", "https://www.bbc.com/news/58001530", "https://www.ft.com/content/e984f582-4b26-45ba-b0c9-adb425147ad1", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uks-truss-ready-to-trigger-article-16-over-stalled-uk-eu-talks-times/ar-AAVcFdI", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/will-the-uk-trigger-article-16-and-what-will-happen-if-it-does", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-still-ready-trigger-article-16-eu-nireland-row-truss-says-2022-01-08/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (<a href="https://covid19.who.int/table" target="_blank">WHO</a>, see 'Deaths - cumulative total', <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1" target="_blank">European Union</a>). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? | 2021-01-29 | [["2021-01-29", 0.63], ["2021-01-29", 0.4], ["2021-01-29", 0.6], ["2021-01-29", 0.6], ["2021-01-29", 0.5], ["2021-01-30", 0.615], ["2021-01-30", 0.615], ["2021-01-30", 0.55], ["2021-01-30", 0.4], ["2021-01-30", 0.55], ["2021-01-30", 0.4], ["2021-01-30", 0.54], ["2021-01-30", 0.53], ["2021-01-30", 0.465], ["2021-01-30", 0.54], ["2021-01-30", 0.53], ["2021-01-30", 0.4], ["2021-01-30", 0.4], ["2021-01-30", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.375], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.4], ["2021-01-31", 0.375], ["2021-01-31", 0.375], ["2021-01-31", 0.38], ["2021-02-01", 0.35], ["2021-02-01", 0.35], ["2021-02-01", 0.3], ["2021-02-02", 0.3], ["2021-02-02", 0.3], 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["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0]] | ["https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/10/06/origin-very-close-relatives-of-sars-cov-2-identified-in-laotian-bats/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/regret-defiance-europes-vaccine-shy-east-covid-19-rages-2021-10-21", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7096727/", "https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-Temperature-Map-November-2018-to-March-2019_fig1_342118086", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=~USA~EU", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/covid-s-resurgence-europe-3-charts-n1283408", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-remains-vaccine-sceptical-despite-surge-covid-19-cases-2021-10-11/", "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0075-0", "https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1427767363080843265?lang=en", "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature06536", "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1341488", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/without-covid-19-jab-reinfection-may-occur-every-16-months-say-scientists", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-surging-europe-experts-say-s-warning-us-rcna4666", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1335342", "https://www.niaid.nih.gov/research/emerging-infectious-diseases-pathogens", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=~USA~European+Union", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873506120304165", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/04/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#covid-surge-europe-who", "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.049866v1.full", "https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html", "https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccination-europe-live-data-tracker-coverage/", "http://www.emro.who.int/fr/about-who/rc61/zoonotic-diseases.html", "https://www.pnas.org/content/118/23/e2022239118"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2856 |
<p>For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/fight-against-terrorism/" target="_blank">European Council</a>, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. Whether a CCTA is either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups will be determined using credible, open-source reporting (<a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/sahel" target="_blank">UN - List of Sahel Countries</a>, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-g5-sahel-joint-force-fighting-terror-building-regional-security" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). "Continental Europe" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea" target="_blank">Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA</a>, does not include the UK).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2024? | 2023-04-14 | [["2023-04-14", 0.03], ["2023-04-14", 0.465], ["2023-04-14", 0.3367], ["2023-04-14", 0.2525], ["2023-04-14", 0.202], ["2023-04-14", 0.205], ["2023-04-14", 0.2186], ["2023-04-14", 0.1925], ["2023-04-14", 0.1856], ["2023-04-14", 0.169], ["2023-04-14", 0.2291], ["2023-04-14", 0.2325], ["2023-04-14", 0.2185], ["2023-04-15", 0.2121], ["2023-04-15", 0.198], ["2023-04-15", 0.1863], ["2023-04-15", 0.1869], ["2023-04-15", 0.1906], ["2023-04-15", 0.2078], ["2023-04-15", 0.2021], ["2023-04-15", 0.2045], ["2023-04-15", 0.2043], ["2023-04-15", 0.1973], ["2023-04-15", 0.1986], ["2023-04-16", 0.1995], ["2023-04-16", 0.193], ["2023-04-16", 0.2025], ["2023-04-16", 0.1904], ["2023-04-16", 0.1892], ["2023-04-16", 0.1816], ["2023-04-17", 0.1781], ["2023-04-17", 0.1733], ["2023-04-17", 0.1671], ["2023-04-17", 0.1786], ["2023-04-17", 0.173], ["2023-04-17", 0.169], ["2023-04-17", 0.1681], ["2023-04-17", 0.1488], ["2023-04-17", 0.1476], ["2023-04-17", 0.1508], ["2023-04-17", 0.1196], ["2023-04-18", 0.1332], ["2023-04-18", 0.1367], ["2023-04-18", 0.1724], ["2023-04-18", 0.1486], ["2023-04-19", 0.1294], ["2023-04-19", 0.1611], ["2023-04-19", 0.1578], ["2023-04-19", 0.1521], ["2023-04-19", 0.1706], ["2023-04-19", 0.1668], ["2023-04-19", 0.1663], ["2023-04-19", 0.168], ["2023-04-19", 0.1981], ["2023-04-19", 0.1695], ["2023-04-20", 0.1981], ["2023-04-20", 0.2111], ["2023-04-20", 0.21], ["2023-04-20", 0.2026], ["2023-04-20", 0.2026], ["2023-04-20", 0.2085], ["2023-04-21", 0.2158], ["2023-04-21", 0.2175], ["2023-04-21", 0.2235], ["2023-04-21", 0.226], ["2023-04-21", 0.2255], ["2023-04-21", 0.2325], ["2023-04-21", 0.2214], ["2023-04-23", 0.219], ["2023-04-23", 0.1714], ["2023-04-23", 0.1752], ["2023-04-23", 0.1857], ["2023-04-28", 0.1773], ["2023-04-28", 0.1473], ["2023-04-28", 0.1477], ["2023-04-29", 0.1477], ["2023-04-29", 0.1436], ["2023-04-29", 0.1436], ["2023-05-01", 0.1441], ["2023-05-02", 0.1486], ["2023-05-03", 0.1355], ["2023-05-03", 0.1332], ["2023-05-03", 0.1286], ["2023-05-03", 0.1195], ["2023-05-05", 0.0877], ["2023-05-05", 0.0791], ["2023-05-05", 0.0809], ["2023-05-08", 0.0809], ["2023-05-09", 0.0868], ["2023-05-09", 0.1113], ["2023-05-10", 0.1109], ["2023-05-11", 0.1109], ["2023-05-11", 0.1087], ["2023-05-12", 0.1087], ["2023-05-12", 0.1087], ["2023-05-12", 0.1046], ["2023-05-13", 0.0954], ["2023-05-13", 0.0954], ["2023-05-14", 0.0954], ["2023-05-17", 0.0938], ["2023-05-17", 0.0963], ["2023-05-18", 0.0963], ["2023-05-18", 0.0975], ["2023-05-20", 0.0975], ["2023-05-20", 0.0975], ["2023-05-22", 0.0946], ["2023-05-24", 0.0946], ["2023-05-24", 0.0946], ["2023-05-27", 0.0946], ["2023-05-27", 0.0946], ["2023-05-27", 0.0942], ["2023-05-28", 0.0942], ["2023-05-29", 0.0942], ["2023-05-29", 0.0938], ["2023-06-01", 0.0938], ["2023-06-01", 0.0846], ["2023-06-04", 0.0792], ["2023-06-06", 0.0792], ["2023-06-09", 0.078], ["2023-06-11", 0.078], ["2023-06-11", 0.078], ["2023-06-11", 0.078], ["2023-06-12", 0.078], ["2023-06-12", 0.0776], ["2023-06-14", 0.0776], ["2023-06-14", 0.0788], ["2023-06-15", 0.0784], ["2023-06-16", 0.078], ["2023-06-16", 0.078], ["2023-06-16", 0.078], ["2023-06-20", 0.078], ["2023-06-20", 0.0788], ["2023-06-21", 0.0788], ["2023-06-21", 0.0788], ["2023-06-22", 0.0788], ["2023-06-22", 0.0788], ["2023-06-24", 0.0769], ["2023-06-26", 0.0765], ["2023-06-28", 0.0769], ["2023-06-28", 0.0773], ["2023-06-28", 0.0769], ["2023-06-28", 0.0769], ["2023-06-29", 0.0765], ["2023-06-30", 0.0777], ["2023-06-30", 0.0769], ["2023-07-03", 0.0762], ["2023-07-05", 0.0758], ["2023-07-09", 0.0741], ["2023-07-11", 0.0741], ["2023-07-11", 0.0733], ["2023-07-11", 0.0741], ["2023-07-12", 0.0737], ["2023-07-12", 0.0811], ["2023-07-14", 0.0804], ["2023-07-16", 0.0737], ["2023-07-17", 0.0733], ["2023-07-19", 0.0733], ["2023-07-24", 0.0733], ["2023-07-25", 0.073], ["2023-07-27", 0.073], ["2023-07-28", 0.0719], ["2023-07-28", 0.0726], ["2023-07-29", 0.0726], ["2023-08-04", 0.0719], ["2023-08-07", 0.0715], ["2023-08-08", 0.0711], ["2023-08-08", 0.0485], ["2023-08-11", 0.0485], ["2023-08-11", 0.0485], ["2023-08-12", 0.0481], ["2023-08-13", 0.0481], ["2023-08-13", 0.0481], ["2023-08-13", 0.0474], ["2023-08-13", 0.0467], ["2023-08-15", 0.0463], ["2023-08-15", 0.0463], ["2023-08-15", 0.045], ["2023-08-15", 0.045], ["2023-08-18", 0.0464], ["2023-08-18", 0.0468], ["2023-08-20", 0.0468], ["2023-08-21", 0.0468], ["2023-08-22", 0.0468], ["2023-08-24", 0.0464], ["2023-08-25", 0.0461], ["2023-08-25", 0.0461], ["2023-08-27", 0.0457], ["2023-08-29", 0.0468], ["2023-08-29", 0.0464], ["2023-09-01", 0.0464], ["2023-09-03", 0.0464], ["2023-09-03", 0.0464], ["2023-09-08", 0.0461], ["2023-09-10", 0.045], ["2023-09-11", 0.0446], ["2023-09-12", 0.0443], ["2023-09-13", 0.0443], ["2023-09-15", 0.0425], ["2023-09-17", 0.0421], ["2023-09-19", 0.0418], ["2023-09-19", 0.0411], ["2023-09-20", 0.0411], ["2023-09-22", 0.0411], ["2023-09-22", 0.0411], ["2023-09-26", 0.0429], ["2023-09-26", 0.0429], ["2023-09-27", 0.0429], ["2023-09-30", 0.0429], ["2023-10-01", 0.0425], ["2023-10-03", 0.0421], ["2023-10-04", 0.0357], ["2023-10-04", 0.0343], ["2023-10-05", 0.0352], ["2023-10-06", 0.0352], ["2023-10-11", 0.0352], ["2023-10-12", 0.0345], ["2023-10-12", 0.0345], ["2023-10-12", 0.0314], ["2023-10-13", 0.0324], ["2023-10-14", 0.0331], ["2023-10-14", 0.0331], ["2023-10-14", 0.0331], ["2023-10-14", 0.0345], ["2023-10-15", 0.0352], ["2023-10-15", 0.0355], ["2023-10-16", 0.0355], ["2023-10-16", 0.0352], ["2023-10-16", 0.0341], ["2023-10-16", 0.0345], ["2023-10-17", 0.0348], ["2023-10-19", 0.0345], ["2023-10-19", 0.0424], ["2023-10-20", 0.0462], ["2023-10-23", 0.0462], ["2023-10-23", 0.0455], ["2023-10-23", 0.0659], ["2023-10-24", 0.0659], ["2023-10-24", 0.0662], ["2023-10-24", 0.0662], ["2023-10-25", 0.0662], ["2023-10-25", 0.0617], ["2023-10-25", 0.06], ["2023-10-26", 0.06], ["2023-10-28", 0.0617], ["2023-11-01", 0.0613], ["2023-11-01", 0.0613], ["2023-11-02", 0.061], ["2023-11-02", 0.0607], ["2023-11-02", 0.059], ["2023-11-05", 0.058], ["2023-11-08", 0.058], ["2023-11-08", 0.0573], ["2023-11-09", 0.0603], ["2023-11-10", 0.0603], ["2023-11-11", 0.0603], ["2023-11-12", 0.0597], ["2023-11-14", 0.0597], ["2023-11-17", 0.059], ["2023-11-18", 0.0583], ["2023-11-18", 0.058], ["2023-11-20", 0.0577], ["2023-11-20", 0.0577], ["2023-11-21", 0.0573], ["2023-11-22", 0.0567], ["2023-11-27", 0.0567], ["2023-11-27", 0.0567], ["2023-11-28", 0.0563], ["2023-11-29", 0.056], ["2023-11-30", 0.056], ["2023-11-30", 0.056], ["2023-12-02", 0.055], ["2023-12-02", 0.0537], ["2023-12-03", 0.0537], ["2023-12-03", 0.051], ["2023-12-05", 0.051], ["2023-12-06", 0.0507], ["2023-12-06", 0.0503], ["2023-12-07", 0.0503], ["2023-12-07", 0.0493], ["2023-12-08", 0.0487], ["2023-12-12", 0.0487], ["2023-12-13", 0.0487], ["2023-12-13", 0.0487], ["2023-12-16", 0.0473], ["2023-12-18", 0.0507], ["2023-12-19", 0.0507], ["2023-12-19", 0.0507], ["2023-12-19", 0.0503], ["2023-12-20", 0.0497], ["2023-12-22", 0.0497], ["2023-12-22", 0.0493], ["2023-12-23", 0.0493], ["2023-12-24", 0.0487], ["2023-12-25", 0.0487], ["2023-12-26", 0.0453], ["2023-12-26", 0.0423], ["2023-12-26", 0.042], ["2023-12-26", 0.0417], ["2023-12-26", 0.0417], ["2023-12-27", 0.0403], ["2023-12-27", 0.0394], ["2023-12-27", 0.039], ["2023-12-28", 0.0371], ["2023-12-28", 0.0358], ["2023-12-31", 0.01], ["2024-01-01", 0.0097], ["2024-01-01", 0.0097]] | ["https://africacenter.org/spotlight/russia-wagner-undermines-transition-mali/", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20210628STO07262/terrorism-in-the-eu-terror-attacks-deaths-and-arrests-in-2020", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A%C3%AFgbado_massacre", "http://www.bloomberg.com/", "https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sahel-now-accounts-43-global-terrorism-deaths", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_terrorism_in_Europe", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe", "https://www.dw.com/en/anis-amri/t-38264492", "https://eeradicalization.com/the-growth-of-salafi-jihadism-in-the-sahel-the-spread-of-al-qaedaism/", "https://apnews.com/article/what-to-know-niger-attempted-coup-security-a229a854e625eb8e15cd2a8c65048bd1", "https://www.dw.com/en/more-than-mercenaries-russias-wagner-group-in-africa/a-64822234", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe#/media/File%3ATerrorism-in-Western-Europe.png", "https://acleddata.com/2023/01/13/actor-profile-the-islamic-state-sahel-province/", "https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220422-france-says-mercenaries-from-russia-s-wagner-group-staged-french-atrocity-in-mali", "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/terrorist-threat-expanding-sahel_en", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe#Deadliest_attacks", "https://www.europol.europa.eu/publication-events/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2022-te-sat", "https://ine.org.pl/en/the-activity-of-jihadist-terrorist-organizations-in-the-region-of-sahel/", "https://www.dw.com/en/right-wing-terror-in-germany-a-timeline/a-52451976", "https://adf-magazine.com/2023/03/wagner-group-targets-chad-for-sahel-expansion/", "https://www.europol.europa.eu/publications-events/main-reports/tesat-report", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_77646.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bria,_Central_African_Republic#Massacre_by_the_Wagner_Group", "https://www.dw.com/en/germany-32-year-old-suspected-of-preparing-islamist-motivated-attack/a-64316641", "https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715 |
<p>Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate" target="_blank">World Meteorological Organization</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (<a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/" target="_blank">NOAA</a>). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (<a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006" target="_blank">NOAA - June 2020 Report</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-15 | Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? | 2020-07-31 | [["2020-07-31", 0.61], ["2020-07-31", 0.68], ["2020-07-31", 0.61], ["2020-07-31", 0.63], ["2020-07-31", 0.65], ["2020-07-31", 0.7], ["2020-07-31", 0.75], ["2020-07-31", 0.7], ["2020-07-31", 0.75], ["2020-07-31", 0.7], ["2020-07-31", 0.7], ["2020-07-31", 0.4], ["2020-07-31", 0.7], ["2020-07-31", 0.45], ["2020-07-31", 0.185], ["2020-07-31", 0.135], ["2020-07-31", 0.135], ["2020-07-31", 0.11], ["2020-08-01", 0.11], ["2020-08-01", 0.11], ["2020-08-01", 0.135], ["2020-08-01", 0.185], ["2020-08-01", 0.26], ["2020-08-01", 0.185], ["2020-08-01", 0.185], ["2020-08-01", 0.15], ["2020-08-01", 0.15], ["2020-08-01", 0.15], ["2020-08-01", 0.14], ["2020-08-01", 0.145], ["2020-08-01", 0.12], ["2020-08-01", 0.095], ["2020-08-01", 0.14], 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0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-08-01", 0.0]] | ["http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Bureau-model&region=IOD", "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/all/3/2000-2020", "https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147703/the-cooler-sister-returns", "https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-temperature", "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/all/9/2000-2020", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202106", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202105", "http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Bureau-model&region=NINO34"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2721 |
<p>Only strike days called by the Royal College of Nursing will count for resolution (<a href="https://www.rcn.org.uk/news-and-events/news/uk-rcn-members-forced-to-strike-again-over-unfair-pay-and-fears-for-patient-safety-180123" target="_blank">Royal College of Nurses</a>). A strike for part of a day would count as a day. As of launch on 18 January 2023, the RCN had planned for at least 2 days of strikes in February (6-7 February 2023) and 2 days of strikes in January (18-19 January 2023), which follows 2 days of strikes in the previous month (15 and 20 December 2022) (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/24/nurses-likely-to-join-postal-education-and-rail-staff-in-pre-christmas-strikes" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | Will the number of Royal College of Nursing strike days in England in February 2023 exceed the number of strike days in January 2023? | 2023-01-18 | [["2023-01-18", 0.97], ["2023-01-18", 0.51], ["2023-01-18", 0.64], ["2023-01-18", 0.48], ["2023-01-19", 0.464], ["2023-01-19", 0.4117], ["2023-01-19", 0.4533], ["2023-01-19", 0.42], ["2023-01-19", 0.4113], ["2023-01-19", 0.4767], ["2023-01-19", 0.489], ["2023-01-19", 0.49], ["2023-01-19", 0.4492], ["2023-01-19", 0.4569], ["2023-01-20", 0.4314], ["2023-01-20", 0.4314], ["2023-01-20", 0.406], ["2023-01-20", 0.3931], ["2023-01-20", 0.42], ["2023-01-21", 0.4022], ["2023-01-22", 0.38], ["2023-01-23", 0.345], ["2023-01-23", 0.345], ["2023-01-23", 0.304], ["2023-01-23", 0.272], ["2023-01-24", 0.247], ["2023-01-25", 0.272], ["2023-01-25", 0.271], ["2023-01-25", 0.272], ["2023-01-26", 0.272], ["2023-01-26", 0.305], ["2023-01-27", 0.22], ["2023-01-30", 0.218], ["2023-01-30", 0.188], ["2023-01-30", 0.238], ["2023-01-31", 0.2164], ["2023-01-31", 0.2164], ["2023-01-31", 0.2533], ["2023-01-31", 0.2917], ["2023-01-31", 0.3183], ["2023-01-31", 0.2985], ["2023-01-31", 0.2985], ["2023-01-31", 0.295], ["2023-01-31", 0.3164], ["2023-02-01", 0.2964], ["2023-02-01", 0.31], ["2023-02-01", 0.31], ["2023-02-01", 0.3156], ["2023-02-01", 0.3147], ["2023-02-01", 0.3356], ["2023-02-01", 0.3284], ["2023-02-01", 0.352], ["2023-02-01", 0.351], ["2023-02-01", 0.351], ["2023-02-01", 0.3541], ["2023-02-01", 0.3541], ["2023-02-02", 0.3862], ["2023-02-02", 0.3776], ["2023-02-02", 0.3764], ["2023-02-02", 0.3764], ["2023-02-03", 0.3861], ["2023-02-04", 0.4228], ["2023-02-04", 0.4194], ["2023-02-04", 0.4132], ["2023-02-05", 0.4079], ["2023-02-05", 0.4032], ["2023-02-06", 0.3705], ["2023-02-06", 0.3705], ["2023-02-07", 0.3689], ["2023-02-07", 0.3658], ["2023-02-07", 0.3647], ["2023-02-08", 0.3642], ["2023-02-08", 0.3526], ["2023-02-08", 0.3447], ["2023-02-08", 0.3368], ["2023-02-08", 0.3632], ["2023-02-08", 0.3447], ["2023-02-08", 0.3316], ["2023-02-08", 0.3311], ["2023-02-08", 0.3163], ["2023-02-09", 0.3142], ["2023-02-09", 0.3137], ["2023-02-09", 0.2985], ["2023-02-10", 0.2975], ["2023-02-10", 0.295], ["2023-02-11", 0.2935], ["2023-02-11", 0.294], ["2023-02-11", 0.2935], ["2023-02-12", 0.3135], ["2023-02-12", 0.333], ["2023-02-12", 0.332], ["2023-02-13", 0.339], ["2023-02-13", 0.334], ["2023-02-13", 0.3425], ["2023-02-14", 0.3415], ["2023-02-14", 0.3415], ["2023-02-14", 0.3385], ["2023-02-14", 0.3285], ["2023-02-15", 0.327], ["2023-02-15", 0.326], ["2023-02-15", 0.316], ["2023-02-15", 0.311], ["2023-02-16", 0.3085], ["2023-02-16", 0.2985], ["2023-02-16", 0.296], ["2023-02-18", 0.2935], ["2023-02-18", 0.291], ["2023-02-18", 0.2565], ["2023-02-18", 0.2495], ["2023-02-21", 0.2445], ["2023-02-21", 0.2345], ["2023-02-21", 0.234], ["2023-02-21", 0.233], ["2023-02-22", 0.2095], ["2023-02-22", 0.1695], ["2023-02-24", 0.1625], ["2023-02-24", 0.1625], ["2023-02-24", 0.1615], ["2023-02-25", 0.162], ["2023-02-25", 0.1295], ["2023-02-26", 0.116], ["2023-02-26", 0.083], ["2023-02-27", 0.053], ["2023-02-28", 0.036], ["2023-02-28", 0.0285], ["2023-02-28", 0.026], ["2023-02-28", 0.0248], ["2023-03-01", 0.0248]] | ["https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/04/nurses-offer-to-call-off-strikes-if-sunak-matches-welsh-pay-offer", "https://www.nhsemployers.org/articles/confirmed-industrial-action-strike-days", "https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/11/nurses-set-to-withdraw-from-ae-and-intensive-care-units-as-strike-intensifies"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2509 |
<p>There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (<a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/energy-infrastructure/" target="_blank">ASCE</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-does-us-power-grid-work" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (<a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/the-great-northeast-blackout" target="_blank">History.com</a>, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3152451.stm" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (<a href="https://www.constellation.com/energy-101/weather-preparedness/what-is-a-rolling-blackout.html" target="_blank">Constellation Energy Resources</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 September 2022</span>: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023? | 2022-08-05 | [["2022-08-05", 0.7], ["2022-08-05", 0.85], ["2022-08-05", 0.57], ["2022-08-05", 0.465], ["2022-08-05", 0.372], ["2022-08-05", 0.31], ["2022-08-05", 0.2671428571428571], ["2022-08-05", 0.235], ["2022-08-05", 0.2111111111111111], ["2022-08-05", 0.196], ["2022-08-05", 0.136], ["2022-08-06", 0.116], ["2022-08-06", 0.115], ["2022-08-06", 0.101], ["2022-08-06", 0.041], ["2022-08-06", 0.043], ["2022-08-06", 0.142], ["2022-08-07", 0.241], ["2022-08-07", 0.241], ["2022-08-07", 0.239], ["2022-08-07", 0.238], ["2022-08-07", 0.245], ["2022-08-07", 0.239], ["2022-08-07", 0.249], ["2022-08-08", 0.248], ["2022-08-08", 0.23], ["2022-08-08", 0.233], ["2022-08-08", 0.135], ["2022-08-08", 0.149], ["2022-08-08", 0.15], ["2022-08-08", 0.18181818181818182], ["2022-08-08", 0.18], ["2022-08-08", 0.16583333333333333], ["2022-08-08", 0.165], ["2022-08-08", 0.1625], ["2022-08-08", 0.1625], ["2022-08-08", 0.22692307692307692], ["2022-08-08", 0.22], ["2022-08-09", 0.20714285714285716], ["2022-08-09", 0.20714285714285716], ["2022-08-09", 0.20785714285714285], ["2022-08-09", 0.20785714285714285], ["2022-08-09", 0.20785714285714285], ["2022-08-09", 0.194], ["2022-08-09", 0.19333333333333333], ["2022-08-09", 0.18333333333333332], ["2022-08-09", 0.175], ["2022-08-09", 0.193125], ["2022-08-10", 0.164375], ["2022-08-10", 0.163125], ["2022-08-10", 0.1535294117647059], ["2022-08-10", 0.15294117647058825], ["2022-08-10", 0.15235294117647058], ["2022-08-11", 0.1511111111111111], ["2022-08-11", 0.15055555555555555], ["2022-08-11", 0.15166666666666667], ["2022-08-11", 0.1938888888888889], ["2022-08-13", 0.19333333333333333], ["2022-08-15", 0.13777777777777778], ["2022-08-17", 0.14833333333333334], ["2022-08-18", 0.14777777777777779], ["2022-08-19", 0.19722222222222222], ["2022-08-19", 0.21], ["2022-08-20", 0.2139], ["2022-08-20", 0.2237], ["2022-08-21", 0.24], ["2022-08-22", 0.2655], ["2022-08-22", 0.2755], ["2022-08-23", 0.2735], ["2022-08-24", 0.273], ["2022-08-26", 0.2605], ["2022-08-27", 0.26], ["2022-08-27", 0.2481], ["2022-08-27", 0.2486], ["2022-08-28", 0.2495], ["2022-08-28", 0.2552], ["2022-08-29", 0.2548], ["2022-08-30", 0.2495], ["2022-08-30", 0.2386], ["2022-08-31", 0.2368], ["2022-08-31", 0.2014], ["2022-09-01", 0.2009], ["2022-09-02", 0.2318], ["2022-09-02", 0.2255], ["2022-09-03", 0.225], ["2022-09-04", 0.2018], ["2022-09-07", 0.2032], ["2022-09-07", 0.1987], ["2022-09-09", 0.2117], ["2022-09-10", 0.2113], ["2022-09-10", 0.2096], ["2022-09-10", 0.2013], ["2022-09-11", 0.195], ["2022-09-11", 0.1817], ["2022-09-11", 0.1833], ["2022-09-11", 0.1825], ["2022-09-12", 0.185], ["2022-09-12", 0.1867], ["2022-09-12", 0.1863], ["2022-09-13", 0.1858], ["2022-09-14", 0.1671], ["2022-09-15", 0.19], ["2022-09-15", 0.1775], ["2022-09-15", 0.1771], ["2022-09-16", 0.1788], ["2022-09-17", 0.1728], ["2022-09-18", 0.1932], ["2022-09-20", 0.1865], ["2022-09-21", 0.1919], ["2022-09-23", 0.1915], ["2022-09-24", 0.1923], ["2022-09-25", 0.1919], ["2022-09-25", 0.1935], ["2022-09-27", 0.1915], ["2022-09-27", 0.1908], ["2022-09-30", 0.1856], ["2022-09-30", 0.1859], ["2022-10-02", 0.2037], ["2022-10-04", 0.2033], ["2022-10-07", 0.1979], ["2022-10-07", 0.2014], ["2022-10-08", 0.2007], ["2022-10-08", 0.2143], ["2022-10-08", 0.2125], ["2022-10-11", 0.2125], ["2022-10-12", 0.2121], ["2022-10-15", 0.2125], ["2022-10-15", 0.2118], ["2022-10-18", 0.2114], ["2022-10-18", 0.2125], ["2022-10-19", 0.2121], ["2022-10-19", 0.2125], ["2022-10-19", 0.2125], ["2022-10-20", 0.2168], ["2022-10-20", 0.215], ["2022-10-21", 0.2329], ["2022-10-22", 0.2311], ["2022-10-22", 0.2321], ["2022-10-22", 0.2318], ["2022-10-23", 0.2139], ["2022-10-24", 0.1896], ["2022-10-24", 0.1846], ["2022-10-26", 0.1846], ["2022-10-28", 0.1821], ["2022-10-29", 0.1821], ["2022-10-29", 0.1825], ["2022-10-30", 0.1762], ["2022-10-31", 0.1762], ["2022-10-31", 0.1759], ["2022-11-04", 0.1755], ["2022-11-04", 0.1755], ["2022-11-04", 0.1738], ["2022-11-05", 0.1734], ["2022-11-07", 0.1731], ["2022-11-09", 0.1728], ["2022-11-10", 0.1566], ["2022-11-10", 0.1566], ["2022-11-11", 0.1634], ["2022-11-12", 0.1631], ["2022-11-12", 0.1628], ["2022-11-13", 0.1624], ["2022-11-16", 0.1624], ["2022-11-17", 0.1621], ["2022-11-17", 0.1366], ["2022-11-18", 0.1331], ["2022-11-18", 0.1331], ["2022-11-21", 0.1328], ["2022-11-23", 0.1328], ["2022-11-24", 0.1324], ["2022-11-25", 0.1307], ["2022-11-26", 0.1307], ["2022-11-26", 0.1293], ["2022-11-27", 0.129], ["2022-11-28", 0.1303], ["2022-11-28", 0.1328], ["2022-12-01", 0.1324], ["2022-12-02", 0.1134], ["2022-12-03", 0.1131], ["2022-12-05", 0.1138], ["2022-12-05", 0.1128], ["2022-12-05", 0.1138], ["2022-12-05", 0.1141], ["2022-12-06", 0.1138], ["2022-12-06", 0.1124], ["2022-12-06", 0.1124], ["2022-12-07", 0.1134], ["2022-12-08", 0.1393], ["2022-12-09", 0.139], ["2022-12-10", 0.139], ["2022-12-11", 0.1386], ["2022-12-12", 0.1386], ["2022-12-13", 0.1376], ["2022-12-15", 0.1366], ["2022-12-15", 0.1362], ["2022-12-21", 0.1359], ["2022-12-23", 0.1686], ["2022-12-23", 0.17], ["2022-12-23", 0.1707], ["2022-12-23", 0.1703], ["2022-12-23", 0.165], ["2022-12-24", 0.1637], ["2022-12-24", 0.1637], ["2022-12-25", 0.164], ["2022-12-26", 0.1627], ["2022-12-27", 0.158], ["2022-12-28", 0.16], ["2022-12-28", 0.1443], ["2022-12-29", 0.1443], ["2023-01-01", 0.144], ["2023-01-01", 0.144], ["2023-01-01", 0.1373], ["2023-01-02", 0.137], ["2023-01-02", 0.1367], ["2023-01-03", 0.1326], ["2023-01-03", 0.1313], ["2023-01-03", 0.1542], ["2023-01-04", 0.1539], ["2023-01-04", 0.1535], ["2023-01-04", 0.1519], ["2023-01-05", 0.1519], ["2023-01-06", 0.1472], ["2023-01-06", 0.1319], ["2023-01-06", 0.1316], ["2023-01-06", 0.1313], ["2023-01-07", 0.1306], ["2023-01-09", 0.1309], ["2023-01-10", 0.1306], ["2023-01-11", 0.1019], ["2023-01-11", 0.1006], ["2023-01-12", 0.1003], ["2023-01-14", 0.1], ["2023-01-14", 0.0997], ["2023-01-15", 0.0994], ["2023-01-15", 0.0956], ["2023-01-16", 0.0953], ["2023-01-17", 0.095], ["2023-01-18", 0.0947], ["2023-01-18", 0.0944], ["2023-01-19", 0.0947], ["2023-01-20", 0.0944], ["2023-01-20", 0.0975], ["2023-01-21", 0.0961], ["2023-01-22", 0.0958], ["2023-01-22", 0.0955], ["2023-01-23", 0.0952], ["2023-01-23", 0.0948], ["2023-01-23", 0.0945], ["2023-01-24", 0.09], ["2023-01-24", 0.0897], 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0.0438], ["2023-03-14", 0.0426], ["2023-03-14", 0.044], ["2023-03-14", 0.044], ["2023-03-15", 0.0437], ["2023-03-15", 0.0423], ["2023-03-16", 0.042], ["2023-03-16", 0.0411], ["2023-03-16", 0.0411], ["2023-03-16", 0.0411], ["2023-03-16", 0.0389], ["2023-03-16", 0.0392], ["2023-03-17", 0.0392], ["2023-03-18", 0.0386], ["2023-03-19", 0.0383], ["2023-03-20", 0.0383], ["2023-03-20", 0.0383], ["2023-03-20", 0.0375], ["2023-03-20", 0.0375], ["2023-03-22", 0.0208], ["2023-03-23", 0.0206], ["2023-03-23", 0.0183], ["2023-03-25", 0.0178], ["2023-03-25", 0.0178], ["2023-03-25", 0.0176], ["2023-03-26", 0.0173], ["2023-03-26", 0.0173], ["2023-03-26", 0.0111], ["2023-03-26", 0.0114], ["2023-03-26", 0.0111], ["2023-03-28", 0.0111], ["2023-03-29", 0.0111], ["2023-03-29", 0.0111], ["2023-03-31", 0.0108], ["2023-03-31", 0.0108], ["2023-04-01", 0.0108], ["2023-04-01", 0.0108], ["2023-04-01", 0.0108]] | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X-zE44x5Fk", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63829130", "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/3998949_Blackout_mitigation_assessment_in_power_transmission_systems", "https://www.cmu.edu/ceic/assets/docs/publications/working-papers/ceic-08-01.pdf", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_5a87e85e6cd6128529ddac6108ad52c5", "https://discord.gg/jVRRgsU2ZH", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-64075457", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1504245", "https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/memo-oregon-washington-substations-intentionally-attacked/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/california-heat-wave-energy-crisis.html", "https://youtu.be/yTrhZLHQZ9o", "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif", "https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/worst-power-outages-in-united-states-history/#:~:text=1.,30%20million%20people%20without%20power", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/02/04/us/us-power-grid-attacks", "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3349356/", "https://poweroutage.us/", "https://youtu.be/xvOaDzPcUk0", "https://blog.nature.org/science/2019/10/29/fear-the-squirrel-how-wildlife-causes-major-power-outages/", "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-looking-ties-power-facility-shootings-north-south-carolina-rcna61048", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_7805f9a49f5c0c11d2ce69e0b57674d9", "https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM", "https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/seeking-info/shooting-of-electrical-substations", "https://youtu.be/GlGI643vUIg", "https://us.cnn.com/2022/11/27/weather/severe-storms-south-tornadoes-hail/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2226 |
<p>On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/tunisia-is-setting-itself-up-for-an-autocratic-future" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20211213-tunisian-president-calls-referendum-on-constitutional-change-sets-poll-date" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-07-25 | Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022? | 2021-12-15 | [["2021-12-17", 1.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.505], ["2021-12-17", 1.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.93], ["2021-12-17", 1.0], ["2021-12-18", 1.0], ["2021-12-18", 1.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.95], ["2021-12-18", 0.9], ["2021-12-18", 0.9], ["2021-12-18", 0.9], ["2021-12-19", 0.88], ["2021-12-19", 0.88], ["2021-12-19", 0.89], ["2021-12-19", 0.88], ["2021-12-19", 0.87], ["2021-12-20", 0.86], ["2021-12-20", 0.86], ["2021-12-20", 0.86], ["2021-12-20", 0.84], ["2021-12-20", 0.86], ["2021-12-20", 0.86], ["2021-12-20", 0.81], ["2021-12-21", 0.75], ["2021-12-21", 0.75], ["2021-12-21", 0.775], ["2021-12-21", 0.75], ["2021-12-21", 0.75], ["2021-12-21", 0.75], ["2021-12-21", 0.7], ["2021-12-21", 0.7], ["2021-12-21", 0.725], ["2021-12-22", 0.75], ["2021-12-22", 0.75], ["2021-12-22", 0.775], ["2021-12-22", 0.8], ["2021-12-23", 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["2022-07-22", 0.85], ["2022-07-23", 0.85], ["2022-07-23", 0.85], ["2022-07-23", 0.85], ["2022-07-23", 0.85], ["2022-07-23", 0.83], ["2022-07-23", 0.85], ["2022-07-25", 0.85], ["2022-07-25", 0.85], ["2022-07-25", 0.85], ["2022-07-25", 0.855], ["2022-07-25", 0.87], ["2022-07-25", 0.87], ["2022-07-25", 0.87], ["2022-07-25", 0.89], ["2022-07-25", 0.9], ["2022-07-25", 0.9], ["2022-07-25", 0.9], ["2022-07-25", 0.9]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/head-tunisias-constitution-committee-delivers-draft-president-2022-06-20/", "https://www.barrons.com/news/judge-quits-tunisia-electoral-board-to-support-strike-01655119507", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/north-africa/2022/05/31/Tunisia-s-trade-union-announces-public-sector-strike-from-June-16", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hundreds-protest-tunisian-referendum-2022-07-23/", "https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272570228/tunisia-opens-expat-voting-registration-for-constitutional-referendum", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/14/qa-tunisias-constitutional-referendum", "https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/no-time-to-lose-as-tunisias-president-consolidates-authoritarian-turn", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/3/tunisian-constitution-committee-head-blasts-presidents-draft", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220427-tunisia-civil-society-group-calls-on-president-to-cancel-july-referendum/amp/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/7/22/opponents-of-tunisias-new-referendum-unable-to-unite-before-vote", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/north-africa/2022/05/26/Tunisian-president-decrees-a-referendum-for-new-constitution", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/23/police-arrest-leading-gay-activist-in-crackdown-on-tunisia-rally", "https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220616-strike-paralyses-tunisia-intensifying-pressure-on-saied", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1458806", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisias-saied-unpicks-young-arab-spring-democracy-2022-06-16/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tunisian-opposition-abroad-lobbies-against-upcoming-referendum/6657010.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/25/tunisians-begin-to-vote-in-referendum-on-new-constitution", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220526-tunisian-president-issues-decree-to-hold-referendum-on-new-constitution", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220713-tunisia-rights-group-sues-president-for-violating-electoral-law/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/tunisia-ruler-unveils-recipe-for-new-republic-as-economy-tanks?srnd=premium&sref=i2Bc5OtW", "https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220606-tunisia-judges-go-on-strike-over-saied-interference-after-57-colleagues-sacked", "https://www.justsecurity.org/82496/tunisians-fed-up-with-non-delivering-democracy-set-to-vote-on-retrograde-constitution-civil-societys-role/", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/tunisias-powerful-labor-union-allows-members-to-vote-on-new-constitution/2629100", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220606-tunisia-expert-drafting-new-constitution-says-no-reference-to-islam", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFw9fLzI5lA"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-06-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2214 |
<p>The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?516168-1/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization-oral-argument&live" target="_blank">C-SPAN</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade? | 2021-12-03 | [["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.43], ["2021-12-03", 0.6], ["2021-12-03", 0.305], ["2021-12-03", 0.25], ["2021-12-03", 0.25], ["2021-12-03", 0.225], ["2021-12-03", 0.25], ["2021-12-03", 0.275], ["2021-12-03", 0.3], ["2021-12-04", 0.275], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.225], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-04", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.275], ["2021-12-05", 0.27], ["2021-12-05", 0.26], ["2021-12-05", 0.27], ["2021-12-05", 0.26], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-05", 0.25], ["2021-12-06", 0.25], ["2021-12-06", 0.25], ["2021-12-06", 0.25], ["2021-12-06", 0.26], ["2021-12-06", 0.25], 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"https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/shortlist-breyer-replacement-supreme-court/index.html", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/05/court-has-voted-to-overturn-roe-according-to-draft-opinion-published-by-politico/", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act", "https://www.axios.com/clyburns-michelle-childs-scotus-520670c0-52b4-4180-89a5-c47bbfeb974d.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Medical_Services,_LLC_v._Russo", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/us/politics/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-senate.html", "https://fantasyscotus.net/", "https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2022-01-23/roe-v-wade-decision-recalled-at-florida-capitol", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women's_Health_Organization", "https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article257695018.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-draft-opinion-00029475", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/house-oks-security-boost-for-supreme-court-judges-families.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/california-governor-pushes-gun-laws-modeled-texas-abortion-ban-2021-12-12/", "https://mobile.twitter.com/DianaKSimpson/status/1521510242214948864", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/alito-abortion-draft-opinion-roe-00031648", "http://www.nytimes.com/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Weddington", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_Woman%27s_Health_v._Hellerstedt", "https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jan/26/stephen-breyer-retires-supreme-court-biden-pick-justice", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/politics/joe-biden-abortion-supreme-court/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1477 |
<p>Regional tensions in the Middle East are running high since attacks against commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the downing of a U.S. drone, and missile attacks on Saudi oil fields in 2019 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48245204" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/military-official-says-no-u-s-drones-iranian-airspace-after-n1019566" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/saudi-oil-attacks-latest-updates-190916102800973.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). The deaths of General Qasem Soleimani and others in a 3 January 2020 U.S. missile strike in Baghdad in the wake of attacks on the U.S. embassy in Iraq have further inflamed tensions, with Iran warning of retaliation (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50986185" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-sending-hundreds-troops-mideast-after-attack-embassy-compound-n1109196" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p>NOTE 15 January 2020: due to a forecaster inquiry, we have added the last sentence above regarding Iranian and international airspace. This does not change the question, but rather makes our handling of some particular scenarios more clear.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? | 2020-01-03 | [["2020-01-03", 0.5], ["2020-01-03", 0.35], ["2020-01-04", 0.74], ["2020-01-04", 0.35], ["2020-01-04", 0.7], ["2020-01-04", 0.825], ["2020-01-05", 0.75], ["2020-01-05", 0.755], ["2020-01-05", 0.68], ["2020-01-05", 0.69], ["2020-01-05", 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"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-12-18/iran-builds-at-underground-nuclear-facility-amid-us-tensions", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/bahrain-fm-calls-on-us-to-continue-pressure-on-iran-650810", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pulls-some-embassy-staff-from-iraq-as-regional-tensions-rise-11607118555", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-assasination-us-troop-drawdown-iraq-syria-joe-biden-mideast-policy/", "https://www.npr.org/2020/12/01/940418725/u-s-sanctions-against-iran-play-a-role-in-scarcity-of-medication", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/21/the-us-navy-is-surging-a-lot-of-firepower-into-the-persian-gulf-and-its-not-clear-why/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-28/irans-president-vows-revenge-over-slain-military-scientist", "https://iranwire.com/en/features/8208", "https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/iran-seeks-to-deploy-naval-mission-to-venezuela", "https://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-iran-syria-militias/air-strike-kills-irgc-commander-at-iraq-syria-border-iraqi-officials-idUKL1N2IG1UV", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/biggest-iranian-flotilla-yet-en-route-to-venezuela-with-fuel"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2277 |
<p>As Russia invades Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, there is speculation as to how far Russia is willing to go (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/live-updates/russia-invades-ukraine-putin" target="_blank">NPR</a>). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 2 March 2022</span>: If President Zelensky dies, he would be deemed to have ceased to be president upon his death.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-25 | Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 May 2022? | 2022-02-24 | [["2022-02-24", 0.97], ["2022-02-24", 0.99], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 0.99], ["2022-02-24", 0.99], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 1.0], ["2022-02-24", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], ["2022-02-25", 0.99], 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0.0], ["2022-05-18", 0.0], ["2022-05-18", 0.0], ["2022-05-19", 0.0], ["2022-05-19", 0.0], ["2022-05-19", 0.0], ["2022-05-20", 0.0], ["2022-05-20", 0.0], ["2022-05-21", 0.0], ["2022-05-21", 0.0], ["2022-05-21", 0.0], ["2022-05-22", 0.0], ["2022-05-22", 0.0], ["2022-05-23", 0.0], ["2022-05-23", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0]] | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/6/russia-what-is-victory-day-and-why-is-it-important-this-may-9", "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/institute-for-the-study-of-war_the-russian-military-has-likely-decided-to-activity-6931027387782488064-xRFu?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61377886", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000", "https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/05/06/ukraine-to-get-a-dozen-howitzers-from-germany-and-the-netherlands/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/9/putins-victory-day-speech-far-from-triumphant-analysts", "http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16511/jdm16511.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/30/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/russian-soldiers-have-shot-down-their-own-planes-the-uk-spy-chief-says", "https://twitter.com/pilotmsv/status/1513131559834079234", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/zelensky-russia-ukraine-assassination-attempt-foiled/", "http://johnporcellino.blogspot.com/2010/04/groot-monster-from-planet-x.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJboSby7nW0", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/larswe/recent-activity/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeQ6jYzt6cM", "https://www.osw.waw.pl/en", "https://majorriskfactors.substack.com/p/trouble-in-transnistria-04may22?s=w", "https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russia-should-rethink-victory-day", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfc", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXVu_DeB4wo", "https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015---two-reasons-to-make-aggregated-probability-forecasts_1.pdf", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av7kpPJqac0", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-zelensky-assassination-attempts-b2028963.html", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/world/europe/putin-advisers-ukraine.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
Subsets and Splits