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False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2553 | <p>International travel to the US is still recovering from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-us-covid-guidelines-for-foreign-travelers-quarantine-masks-vaccinations/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/domestic-travel-helped-us-retain-its-position-as-the-worlds-biggest-travel--tourism-market-despite-lengthy-travel-restrictions-for-international-visitors-301618333.html" target="_blank">PR News Wire</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for 2023 as first reported by the US International Trade Administration's ADIS/I-94 Visitor Arrivals Monitor (COR) for all of 2023 (<a href="https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/adisi-94-visitor-arrivals-monitor-cor" target="_blank">Trade.gov</a>). Near the bottom of this page, click the arrow to the right of "1 of 5" for monthly data. In 2021, total US arrivals were 22,100,453, down from nearly 80 million in 2019 (<a href="https://www.trade.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/Fact%20Sheet%20International%20Visitation%20FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">Trade.gov - 2021 Fact Sheet</a>, see Table 1).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-09-22T23:44:47.027Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7145, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 50 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0458, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 279, "probability": 0.0458, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 2553, "question_name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-26T21:41:52.888Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-09-22T23:44:47.035Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "11%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7146, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 50 million and 60 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.1092, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 279, "probability": 0.1092, "probability_formatted": "11%", "question_id": 2553, "question_name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-26T21:41:52.872Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-09-22T23:44:47.042Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "69%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7147, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 60 million but fewer than 70 million", "normalized_probability": 0.6921, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 279, "probability": 0.6921, "probability_formatted": "69%", "question_id": 2553, "question_name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-27T13:45:48.342Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-09-22T23:44:47.048Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7148, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 70 million and 80 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0917, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 279, "probability": 0.0917, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 2553, "question_name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-27T13:45:48.338Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2022-09-22T23:44:47.055Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "6%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7149, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 80 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0613, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 279, "probability": 0.0613, "probability_formatted": "6%", "question_id": 2553, "question_name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-27T13:45:48.346Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 290, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>International travel to the US is still recovering from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-us-covid-guidelines-for-foreign-travelers-quarantine-masks-vaccinations/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/domestic-travel-helped-us-retain-its-position-as-the-worlds-biggest-travel--tourism-market-despite-lengthy-travel-restrictions-for-international-visitors-301618333.html\" target=\"_blank\">PR News Wire</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for 2023 as first reported by the US International Trade Administration's ADIS/I-94 Visitor Arrivals Monitor (COR) for all of 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/adisi-94-visitor-arrivals-monitor-cor\" target=\"_blank\">Trade.gov</a>). Near the bottom of this page, click the arrow to the right of \"1 of 5\" for monthly data. In 2021, total US arrivals were 22,100,453, down from nearly 80 million in 2019 (<a href=\"https://www.trade.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/Fact%20Sheet%20International%20Visitation%20FINAL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Trade.gov - 2021 Fact Sheet</a>, see Table 1).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2553, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 279, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 58, "published_at": "2022-09-23T14:31:05.346Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-09-23T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-09-23T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:02.807Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2157 |
<p>Taiwan, under the name of "The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu," and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/taiwan-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-deal-just-days-after-china" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/" target="_blank">Brookings Institute</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/will-china-actually-join-the-cptpp/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom (<a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-cptpp" target="_blank">Institute for Government</a>, <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership" target="_blank">Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade</a>, <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/decision_cptpp_uk_request-decision_ptpgp_ru.aspx?lang=eng" target="_blank">Global Affairs Canada</a>). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T15:00:02.294Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5643, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, but only for the PRC", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2157, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:32.325Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:32.326Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T15:00:02.312Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5644, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, but only for Taiwan", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2157, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:36.710Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:36.711Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T15:00:02.328Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5645, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, for both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2157, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:35.260Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:35.261Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-07-01T14:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T15:00:02.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5646, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 193, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2157, "question_name": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:33.839Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:33.839Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 204, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-10-08T23:54:53.113Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 266, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Taiwan, under the name of \"The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,\" and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/taiwan-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-deal-just-days-after-china\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings Institute</a>, <a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/will-china-actually-join-the-cptpp/\" target=\"_blank\">Diplomat</a>). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom (<a href=\"https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-cptpp\" target=\"_blank\">Institute for Government</a>, <a href=\"https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership\" target=\"_blank\">Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade</a>, <a href=\"https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/decision_cptpp_uk_request-decision_ptpgp_ru.aspx?lang=eng\" target=\"_blank\">Global Affairs Canada</a>). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2157, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 193, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2021-10-08T15:00:02.433Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-07-01T15:06:36.718Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-08T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-08T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2971 |
<p>In July 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") and the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) kicked off negotiations on new collective bargaining agreements (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/uaw-opens-auto-contract-negotiating-with-gm-ford-and-stellantis.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The current contracts are set to expire on 14 September 2023, and both sides are preparing for a potentially contentious fight (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/cars/uaw-head-strike-big-three/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A work stoppage need not include all of an automaker's employees represented by the UAW to count, but a strike must have been approved by the UAW International Executive Board and/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (<a href="https://uaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-UAW-Constitution.pdf" target="_blank">UAW</a>, <a href="http://gmauthority.com/blog/2019/04/uaw-favors-targeted-strike-strategy-should-labor-negotiations-go-south/" target="_blank">GM Authority</a>, <a href="https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html" target="_blank">Key Differences</a>). The question would close early upon the ratification of new collective bargaining agreements with all three automakers.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "3" with a closing date of 14 September 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-15T04:01:18.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:40:50.276Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8892, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 22, "predictions_count": 63, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2971, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:07.024Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:07.025Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-15T04:01:18.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:40:50.290Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8893, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 22, "predictions_count": 63, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2971, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:07.565Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:07.565Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-15T04:01:18.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:40:50.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8894, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 22, "predictions_count": 63, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2971, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:06.311Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:06.312Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-09-15T04:01:18.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-10T21:40:50.305Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8895, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 22, "predictions_count": 63, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2971, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:05.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:05.733Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 67, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-08-29T09:29:41.867Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "\r\n <p>In July 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") and the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) kicked off negotiations on new collective bargaining agreements (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/uaw-opens-auto-contract-negotiating-with-gm-ford-and-stellantis.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The current contracts are set to expire on 14 September 2023, and both sides are preparing for a potentially contentious fight (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/cars/uaw-head-strike-big-three/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). A work stoppage need not include all of an automaker's employees represented by the UAW to count, but a strike must have been approved by the UAW International Executive Board and/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (<a href=\"https://uaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-UAW-Constitution.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">UAW</a>, <a href=\"http://gmauthority.com/blog/2019/04/uaw-favors-targeted-strike-strategy-should-labor-negotiations-go-south/\" target=\"_blank\">GM Authority</a>, <a href=\"https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html\" target=\"_blank\">Key Differences</a>). The question would close early upon the ratification of new collective bargaining agreements with all three automakers.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"3\" with a closing date of 14 September 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2971, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 63, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 22, "published_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:38.738Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-09-15T13:11:07.573Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-11T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-11T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2078 |
<p>On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (<a href="https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/mercosur/chile/sichel-and-boric-presidential-candidates-of-the-right-and-left-in-chile/" target="_blank">Rio Times</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/two-political-upstarts-notch-upset-wins-chiles-presidential-primaries-2021-07-19/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/chile-holds-key-primary-vote-in-wide-open-presidential-race" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (<a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2021-elections-latin-america-preview" target="_blank">AS/COA</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Gabriel Boric" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T20:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-21T14:00:02.065Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5392, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Gabriel Boric", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2078, "question_name": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:23.041Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:23.042Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T20:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-21T14:00:02.099Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5393, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Sebasti\u00e1n Sichel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2078, "question_name": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:25.576Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:25.577Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T20:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-21T14:00:02.127Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5394, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2078, "question_name": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:30.852Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:30.853Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T20:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-21T14:00:02.157Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5395, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 62, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2078, "question_name": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:28.283Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:28.284Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 391, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-03T11:47:01.715Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "89%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (<a href=\"https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/mercosur/chile/sichel-and-boric-presidential-candidates-of-the-right-and-left-in-chile/\" target=\"_blank\">Rio Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/two-political-upstarts-notch-upset-wins-chiles-presidential-primaries-2021-07-19/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/chile-holds-key-primary-vote-in-wide-open-presidential-race\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (<a href=\"https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2021-elections-latin-america-preview\" target=\"_blank\">AS/COA</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Gabriel Boric\" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2078, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:40.477+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:16.766+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 385, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 62, "published_at": "2021-07-21T14:10:24.430Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-20T14:35:30.861Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-21T07:28:06.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-21T14:28:06.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1569 |
<p>Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (<a href="https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-could-drag-uk-to-recession-worse-than-2008-financial-crash/" target="_blank">City A.M.</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/20/government-pay-wages-jobs-coronavirus-rishi-sunak" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new-studies-show-covid-19-will-hike-uk-unemployment-rates---and-skyrocket-them-in-the-eurozone" target="_blank">Spectator.co.uk</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms" target="_blank">Office of National Statistics</a>). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2020" target="_blank">Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin</a>). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketjuly2020" target="_blank">Office of National Statistics</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-24T22:51:55.510Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3692, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 4.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 203, "predictions_count": 559, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1569, "question_name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:50:29.634Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.106Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-24T22:51:55.531Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3693, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 203, "predictions_count": 559, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1569, "question_name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:48:17.284Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.232Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-24T22:51:55.552Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3694, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 203, "predictions_count": 559, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1569, "question_name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:50:59.727Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.370Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-24T22:51:55.576Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3695, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 203, "predictions_count": 559, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1569, "question_name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:41:33.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.508Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-01T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-03-24T22:51:55.601Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3696, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 7.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 203, "predictions_count": 559, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1569, "question_name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:35:55.816Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:15.604Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 580, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-could-drag-uk-to-recession-worse-than-2008-financial-crash/\" target=\"_blank\">City A.M.</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/20/government-pay-wages-jobs-coronavirus-rishi-sunak\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new-studies-show-covid-19-will-hike-uk-unemployment-rates---and-skyrocket-them-in-the-eurozone\" target=\"_blank\">Spectator.co.uk</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms\" target=\"_blank\">Office of National Statistics</a>). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (<a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2020\" target=\"_blank\">Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin</a>). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (<a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketjuly2020\" target=\"_blank\">Office of National Statistics</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 4.0%\" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-01T06:59:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1569, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:35.625+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:19:22.952+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:45:07.415+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:30:28.551+00:00"}, "name": "What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 559, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 203, "published_at": "2020-03-24T22:53:43.467Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-16T14:50:59.755Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-03-24T16:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2381 |
<p>In November 2021, pro-Macron political groups in France formed Ensemble Citoyens (French for "Citizens Together"), a political alliance created in the run-up to 2022 presidential and legislative elections (<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/french-majority-parties-launch-alliance-to-support-macron-in-presidential-elections/" target="_blank">Euractive</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/macron-set-to-name-frances-next-pm-as-focus-moves-to-legislative-elections" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Legislatives/elecresult__legislatives-2017/(path)/legislatives-2017//FE.html" target="_blank">French Ministry of the Interior</a> [in French]. As of 6 May 2022, the seven member parties of Ensemble Citoyens were La République En Marche!, Mouvement Democrate, Agir, Horizons, Territoires de Progres, En Commun!, and Parti Radical (<a href="https://ensemblecitoyens.fr/" target="_blank">Ensemble Citoyens</a> [in French]). The next two-round legislative elections are scheduled for 12 June 2022 and 19 June 2022 (<a href="https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/tous-scrutins/elections-legislatives" target="_blank">French Ministry of the Interior</a> [in French]).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 289" with a closing date of 19 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-19T18:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:16:09.961Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6448, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 289", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2381, "question_name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:18.538Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:18.539Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-19T18:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:16:09.972Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6449, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 289 and 321", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2381, "question_name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.022Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.023Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-19T18:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:16:09.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6450, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 322 and 353", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2381, "question_name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-19T18:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:16:09.987Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6451, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 354 and 385", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2381, "question_name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.998Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:19.999Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-19T18:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T14:16:09.994Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6452, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 385", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 56, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2381, "question_name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:20.504Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:20.505Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 56, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>In November 2021, pro-Macron political groups in France formed Ensemble Citoyens (French for \"Citizens Together\"), a political alliance created in the run-up to 2022 presidential and legislative elections (<a href=\"https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/french-majority-parties-launch-alliance-to-support-macron-in-presidential-elections/\" target=\"_blank\">Euractive</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/macron-set-to-name-frances-next-pm-as-focus-moves-to-legislative-elections\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Legislatives/elecresult__legislatives-2017/(path)/legislatives-2017//FE.html\" target=\"_blank\">French Ministry of the Interior</a> [in French]. As of 6 May 2022, the seven member parties of Ensemble Citoyens were La R\u00e9publique En Marche!, Mouvement Democrate, Agir, Horizons, Territoires de Progres, En Commun!, and Parti Radical (<a href=\"https://ensemblecitoyens.fr/\" target=\"_blank\">Ensemble Citoyens</a> [in French]). The next two-round legislative elections are scheduled for 12 June 2022 and 19 June 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/tous-scrutins/elections-legislatives\" target=\"_blank\">French Ministry of the Interior</a>\u00a0[in French]).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 289\" with a closing date of 19 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-19T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2381, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 56, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 25, "published_at": "2022-05-06T15:32:35.275Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-20T13:58:20.513Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-05-06T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-05-06T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937 | <p>The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin" target="_blank">Coindesk</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-16T16:54:04.573Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4836, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 543, "predictions_count": 1883, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1937, "question_name": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:13.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:13.814Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-16T16:54:04.604Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4837, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 543, "predictions_count": 1883, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1937, "question_name": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:52.237Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:52.238Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T14:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2021-02-16T16:54:04.627Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4838, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 543, "predictions_count": 1883, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1937, "question_name": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:32.408Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:32.410Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1999, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-16T19:14:30.943Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 134, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": " <p>The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\">Coindesk</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-06-30T07:01:25.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1937, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:00.188+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:37:32.200+00:00"}, "name": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1883, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 543, "published_at": "2021-02-16T17:52:32.583Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-01T14:31:52.249Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-02-16T10:00:25.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-02-16T18:00:25.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2857 |
<p>The Federal Reserve's plan for reducing the size of its balance sheet was interrupted by bank failures in the US (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/one-year-after-the-first-rate-hike-the-fed-stands-at-policy-crossroads.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-22/column-qe-sceptics-fear-fed-is-in-a-hole-mike-dolan" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/CREDIT/byvrlmldeve/chart_eikon.jpg" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, chart cited in US News link, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 26 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with "Zoom" set to "1 y" (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends_accessible.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Table Format</a> (data table)). As of 12 April 2023, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,614,797 million, or $8.614797 trillion.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive" with a closing date of 27 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.067Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8407, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $7.7 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:49.198Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:49.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.075Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8408, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:50.938Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:50.938Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.081Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8409, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $8.0 trillion but less than $8.3 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:52.845Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:52.845Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.088Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8410, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $8.3 trillion and $8.6 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:47.449Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:47.450Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.094Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8411, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $8.6 trillion but less than $8.9 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:54.620Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:54.620Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-27T22:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-21T14:19:41.100Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8412, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $8.9 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 318, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2857, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:56.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:56.791Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 325, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-12-26T21:28:50.618Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The Federal Reserve's plan for reducing the size of its balance sheet was interrupted by bank failures in the US (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/one-year-after-the-first-rate-hike-the-fed-stands-at-policy-crossroads.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-22/column-qe-sceptics-fear-fed-is-in-a-hole-mike-dolan\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/CREDIT/byvrlmldeve/chart_eikon.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, chart cited in US News link, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 26 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with \"Zoom\" set to \"1 y\" (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>, <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends_accessible.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - Table Format</a> (data table)). As of 12 April 2023, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,614,797 million, or $8.614797 trillion.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive\" with a closing date of 27 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-12-27T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2857, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 318, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2023-04-21T15:44:17.792Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-29T20:54:56.798Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-04-21T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-04-21T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:58:17.251Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3107 |
<p>The two semifinal games are scheduled for 1 January 2024, and the national championship game is scheduled for 8 January 2024 in Houston, Texas (<a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-05-31/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times" target="_blank">NCAA</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Michigan Wolverines" with a closing date of 8 January 2024.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9477, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:12.202Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:12.203Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9478, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Florida State Seminoles", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:13.002Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:13.003Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.325Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9479, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Georgia Bulldogs", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:13.772Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:13.772Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.335Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9480, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Michigan Wolverines", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:11.311Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:11.312Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.345Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9481, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:17.496Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:17.497Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.353Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9482, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Oregon Ducks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:16.000Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:16.000Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.362Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9483, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Texas Longhorns", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:14.523Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:14.524Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.370Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9484, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Washington Huskies", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:15.297Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:15.298Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-09T03:45:53.000Z", "created_at": "2023-11-10T15:19:19.380Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9485, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 100, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3107, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:16.775Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:16.776Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 100, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-28T17:54:30.369Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 41, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "31%", "description": "\r\n <p>The two semifinal games are scheduled for 1 January 2024, and the national championship game is scheduled for 8 January 2024 in Houston, Texas (<a href=\"https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-05-31/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\" target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Michigan Wolverines\" with a closing date of 8 January 2024.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-08T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3107, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 100, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-11-10T15:27:57.357Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-09T15:10:17.507Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-10T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-10T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T15:11:27.986Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1656 |
<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 4-5 November 2020.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 5 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-05T19:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:33:59.515Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4017, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 286, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1656, "question_name": "At close of business on 5 November 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-05T19:27:55.372Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:47.907Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-05T19:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:33:59.539Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4018, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 286, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1656, "question_name": "At close of business on 5 November 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-05T19:27:46.097Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:47.975Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-05T19:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-12T15:33:59.563Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4019, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 177, "predictions_count": 286, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1656, "question_name": "At close of business on 5 November 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 September 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-05T19:27:50.648Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:48.029Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 292, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-06-12T18:02:32.421Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 146, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 4-5 November 2020.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 5 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1656, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:31.674+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:55.769+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:16:08.429+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:10:09.138+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 5 November 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 September 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 286, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 177, "published_at": "2020-06-12T17:38:37.770Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-05T19:27:55.408Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-12T10:38:37.770-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-12T17:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880 |
<p>As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "8 or fewer" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-23T21:38:46.094Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4676, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "8 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1880, "question_name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:16:10.905Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-02T00:16:10.907Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-23T21:38:46.122Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4677, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 9 and 15", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1880, "question_name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:17:20.346Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-02T00:17:20.348Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-23T21:38:46.162Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4678, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 16 and 22", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1880, "question_name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:18:28.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-02T00:18:28.391Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-23T21:38:46.192Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4679, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 23 and 29", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1880, "question_name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:13:56.031Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-02T00:13:56.034Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-01T22:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-23T21:38:46.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4680, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "30 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 510, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1880, "question_name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:15:03.957Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-02T00:15:03.961Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 522, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-02-15T15:01:50.140Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 14, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "79%", "description": "\r\n <p>As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (<a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CDC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table \u201cCompare,\u201d set to \"States,\" under \"POSITIVE TEST RATE.\" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"8 or fewer\" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-03-01T08:01:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1880, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:41.452+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:27.095+00:00"}, "name": "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 510, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 121, "published_at": "2020-12-23T21:46:38.531Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-02T00:18:28.648Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-12-23T14:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-12-23T22:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2154 |
<p>As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (<a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-shipping-stocks-are-on-fire-2021-10-04" target="_blank">NASDAQ</a>, <a href="https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/strong-rates-across-vessels-propel-baltic-index-to-12-year-peak/" target="_blank">Hellenic Shipping News</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-s-coal-frenzy-has-commodity-freight-zooming-higher" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Lower than 2,500.00" with a closing date of 24 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.142Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5631, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 2,500.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:03:04.272Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:03:04.273Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.161Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5632, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:03:36.219Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:03:36.220Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.182Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5633, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:06:21.565Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:06:21.566Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.204Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5634, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:05:42.952Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:05:42.953Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.219Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5635, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:04:04.291Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:04:04.296Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.235Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5636, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:04:34.399Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:04:34.399Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-24T15:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.251Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5637, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 10,000.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2154, "question_name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:05:05.065Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-25T17:05:05.065Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 473, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-19T20:18:13.906Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "94%", "description": "\r\n <p>As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-shipping-stocks-are-on-fire-2021-10-04\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ</a>, <a href=\"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/strong-rates-across-vessels-propel-baltic-index-to-12-year-peak/\" target=\"_blank\">Hellenic Shipping News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-s-coal-frenzy-has-commodity-freight-zooming-higher\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Lower than 2,500.00\" with a closing date of 24 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-12-24T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2154, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 434, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2021-10-08T14:33:17.363Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-25T17:06:21.607Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-24T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-08T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-08T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966 | <p>The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (<a href="https://oscar.go.com/" target="_blank">Oscars</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)" with a closing date of 25 April 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.158Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4962, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:25:54.623Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:25:54.624Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.184Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4963, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Mank (David Fincher)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:25:58.576Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:25:58.584Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.209Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4964, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:02.654Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:02.658Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.234Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4965, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Nomadland (Chlo\u00e9 Zhao)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:07.427Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:07.429Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.259Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4966, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:11.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:11.635Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-04-26T01:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-17T16:05:50.284Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4967, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 160, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1966, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:17.853Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:17.856Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 164, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-03-17T19:42:17.468Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 39, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": " <p>The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (<a href=\"https://oscar.go.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Oscars</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Nomadland (Chlo\u00e9 Zhao)\" with a closing date of 25 April 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-04-25T07:01:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1966, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:35.582+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:38:55.266+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 160, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 73, "published_at": "2021-03-17T16:33:55.510Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-04-26T13:26:17.936Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-04-25T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-03-17T10:00:21.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-03-17T17:00:21.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2701 |
<p>Shares of technology companies lost trillions of dollars in value in 2022 (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2022-stock-carnage-erases-5-2-trillion-in-market-cap-from-these-10-faang-stocks-11672253697" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>). The NYSE FANG+ Index includes ten of the largest tech companies traded in the US (<a href="https://www.theice.com/fangplus" target="_blank">Intercontinental Exchange</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NYFANG:INDEXNYSEGIS?window=1Y" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 5,400" with a closing date of 3 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.167Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7737, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 3,200", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:18.697Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:18.698Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.177Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7738, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3,200 and 3,700, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:06.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:06.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.186Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7739, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3,700 but less than 4,100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:04:58.496Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:04:58.497Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.195Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7740, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4,100 and 4,500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:04:55.207Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:04:55.208Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.202Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7741, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4,500 but less than 4,900", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:10.584Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:10.584Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.211Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7742, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4,900 and 5,400, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:01.995Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:01.998Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.218Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7743, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 5,400", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 255, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2701, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:14.679Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:14.680Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 259, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-02-05T11:24:01.907Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 271, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "10%", "description": "\r\n <p>Shares of technology companies lost trillions of dollars in value in 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2022-stock-carnage-erases-5-2-trillion-in-market-cap-from-these-10-faang-stocks-11672253697\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>). The NYSE FANG+ Index includes ten of the largest tech companies traded in the US (<a href=\"https://www.theice.com/fangplus\" target=\"_blank\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NYFANG:INDEXNYSEGIS?window=1Y\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 5,400\" with a closing date of 3 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-03T07:00:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2701, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 255, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 41, "published_at": "2023-01-06T16:04:03.291Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-03T21:05:18.719Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-06T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-06T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3082 | <p>Various forecasts for China's economic growth in 2024 have been cut as the country deals with various economic issues, particularly in its property sector (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-10/imf-says-global-economy-limping-along-cuts-growth-forecast-for-china-euro-area" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-keeps-china-2023-074357699.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2024 (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-27T14:05:31.025Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9381, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by less than 2.0% or lower", "normalized_probability": 0.011, "positions_count": 48, 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"ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9384, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.4605, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.4605, "probability_formatted": "46%", "question_id": 3082, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T09:28:50.160Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-27T14:05:31.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "19%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9385, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.185, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.185, "probability_formatted": "19%", "question_id": 3082, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T09:28:50.135Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-27T14:05:31.061Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9386, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3082, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T09:28:50.148Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-27T14:05:31.068Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9387, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by 7.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.004, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 115, "probability": 0.004, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3082, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-17T22:32:04.449Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 117, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Various forecasts for China's economic growth in 2024 have been cut as the country deals with various economic issues, particularly in its property sector (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-10/imf-says-global-economy-limping-along-cuts-growth-forecast-for-china-euro-area\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-keeps-china-2023-074357699.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2024 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-04-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3082, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 115, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 48, "published_at": "2023-10-27T15:58:48.564Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-27T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-27T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T09:28:52.377Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1767 |
<p>Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-politics-abe-successors/how-possible-successors-stack-up-if-japan-pm-abe-resigns-idUSKBN25K07S" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3099272/shinzo-abes-resignation-who-might-become-japans-next-pm" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/japan-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-successors-200828070808872.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yoshihide Suga" with a closing date of 13 September 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.116Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4371, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Taro Aso", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:07.492Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:04.512Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.156Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4372, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Shigeru Ishiba", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:09.030Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:04.646Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.194Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4373, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fumio Kishida", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:10.629Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:04.768Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.267Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4374, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Taro Kono", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:12.300Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:04.918Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4375, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yoshihide Suga", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:04.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:05.079Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-09-14T06:59:43.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-28T14:39:00.340Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4376, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 204, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1767, "question_name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:05.954Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:05.210Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 219, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-31T16:10:29.262Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "19%", "description": "\r\n <p>Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-politics-abe-successors/how-possible-successors-stack-up-if-japan-pm-abe-resigns-idUSKBN25K07S\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3099272/shinzo-abes-resignation-who-might-become-japans-next-pm\" target=\"_blank\">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/japan-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-successors-200828070808872.html\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yoshihide Suga\" with a closing date of 13 September 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-15T07:59:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1767, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:45.120+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:15.852+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:48:06.406+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:41:35.968+00:00"}, "name": "Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 204, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 80, "published_at": "2020-08-28T17:01:47.204Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-09-14T15:48:12.324Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-09-13T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-28T10:01:47.204-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-28T17:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2192 |
<p>On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/fed-decision-taper-timetable-as-it-starts-pulling-back-on-pandemic-era-economic-aid-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that "the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook" (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20211103a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement</a>). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20141029a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement</a>). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements" target="_blank">NY Fed</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Before 4 May 2022" with a closing date of 26 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-26T19:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:58:23.163Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5791, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 4 May 2022", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2192, "question_name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:31:10.358Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-26T20:31:10.358Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-26T19:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:58:23.179Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5792, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2192, "question_name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:29:44.896Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-26T20:29:44.898Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-26T19:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:58:23.196Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5793, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2192, "question_name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:05.933Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:05.935Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-26T19:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:58:23.213Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5794, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2192, "question_name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:29.838Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:29.839Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-26T19:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2021-11-12T14:58:23.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5795, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 15 December 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 86, "predictions_count": 178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2192, "question_name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:52.935Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-26T20:30:52.936Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 184, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-24T00:25:22.588Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 64, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "15%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/fed-decision-taper-timetable-as-it-starts-pulling-back-on-pandemic-era-economic-aid-.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that \"the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook\" (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20211103a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement</a>). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20141029a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement</a>). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (<a href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements\" target=\"_blank\">NY Fed</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Before 4 May 2022\" with a closing date of 26 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p> ", "ends_at": "2022-12-14T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2192, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 178, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 86, "published_at": "2021-11-12T15:00:38.228Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-26T20:31:10.414Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-11-12T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-11-12T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2923 |
<p>As Slovaks prepare to go to the polls in an early election, there are concerns that pro-Russian leaders may win control of the country's parliament, the National Council (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-risks-losing-slovakia-russia-disinformation-president-zuzana-caputova/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23175219/russia-wants-to-meddle-with-slovak-elections-claims-former-defense-minister.html" target="_blank">Slovak Spectator</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/slovakia/" target="_blank">Politico - Slovakia Poll of Polls</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/talking-europe/20230505-we-need-red-lines-on-the-rule-of-law-slovakia-s-foreign-minister-says" target="_blank">France 24</a>). The next general election is scheduled for 30 September 2023 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-slovakia-government-ukraine-zuzana-caputova-872ae94652d69d0a4bcbf8517faeeaa0" target="_blank">AP</a>). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2022 and the outcome determined once a new prime minister has been appointed by the president of Slovakia (<a href="https://www.prezident.sk/upload-files/46422.pdf" target="_blank">Slovak Constitution</a>, see Article 102(1)(g)). If no new prime minister has been appointed and a new election is called, the question would close "None of the above." The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia)" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T13:46:12.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-30T13:53:39.621Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8673, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer \u2013 soci\u00e1lna demokracia)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2923, "question_name": "To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:11.538Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:11.538Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T13:46:12.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-30T13:53:39.629Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8674, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Progressive Slovakia (Progres\u00edvne Slovensko)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2923, "question_name": "To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:13.125Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:13.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T13:46:12.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-30T13:53:39.637Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8675, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS - soci\u00e1lna demokracia)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2923, "question_name": "To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:12.605Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:12.606Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T13:46:12.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-30T13:53:39.645Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8676, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 23, "predictions_count": 74, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2923, "question_name": "To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:12.078Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:12.079Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 76, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-06-30T18:13:46.703Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 92, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>As Slovaks prepare to go to the polls in an early election, there are concerns that pro-Russian leaders may win control of the country's parliament, the National Council (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-risks-losing-slovakia-russia-disinformation-president-zuzana-caputova/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23175219/russia-wants-to-meddle-with-slovak-elections-claims-former-defense-minister.html\" target=\"_blank\">Slovak Spectator</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/slovakia/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico - Slovakia Poll of Polls</a>, <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/talking-europe/20230505-we-need-red-lines-on-the-rule-of-law-slovakia-s-foreign-minister-says\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>). The next general election is scheduled for 30 September 2023 (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/politics-slovakia-government-ukraine-zuzana-caputova-872ae94652d69d0a4bcbf8517faeeaa0\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2022 and the outcome determined once a new prime minister has been appointed by the president of Slovakia (<a href=\"https://www.prezident.sk/upload-files/46422.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Slovak Constitution</a>, see Article 102(1)(g)). If no new prime minister has been appointed and a new election is called, the question would close \"None of the above.\" The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer \u2013 soci\u00e1lna demokracia)\" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-09-30T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2923, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 74, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 23, "published_at": "2023-06-30T16:01:16.531Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T15:17:13.132Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-30T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-30T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1603 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 2 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 3 May 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 4 May under "Positive" (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/" target="_blank">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 773,020 total cases through 20 April 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than 1,150,000 but less than 1,200,000" with a closing date of 3 May 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-04T06:59:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-24T21:14:19.340Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3852, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1,050,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1603, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:37:15.397Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:34.552Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-04T06:59:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-24T21:14:19.407Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3853, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1603, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:37:08.068Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:34.683Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-04T06:59:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-24T21:14:19.496Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3854, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,100,000 but less than 1,150,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1603, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:36:57.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:34.784Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-04T06:59:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-24T21:14:19.540Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3855, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1603, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:36:49.814Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:34.932Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-05-04T06:59:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-24T21:14:19.584Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3856, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 185, "predictions_count": 434, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1603, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:36:41.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:35.069Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 455, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-05-02T05:23:42.269Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "80%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 2 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 3 May 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 4 May under \"Positive\" (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/\" target=\"_blank\">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 773,020 total cases through 20 April 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than 1,150,000 but less than 1,200,000\" with a closing date of 3 May 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-05-03T06:59:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1603, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:27.564+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:22:25.930+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:29:48.860+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T15:15:59.438+00:00"}, "name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 434, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 185, "published_at": "2020-04-27T14:50:02.597Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-05-04T23:37:15.423Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-05-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-27T07:50:02.597-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-27T14:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2379 |
<p>After a delayed start, the 2022 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 5 October 2022, with the playoffs to follow (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2022/04/07/mlb-predictions-2022-world-series-award-picks-new-season/9488333002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/schedule" target="_blank">MLB</a>). The question will be scheduled to suspend on 7 November 2022 and will be adjusted once the 2022 playoff schedule is released.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Houston Astros" with a closing date of 5 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.569Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6426, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Atlanta Braves", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:41.422Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:41.423Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.594Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6427, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Chicago White Sox", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:44.465Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:44.465Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.603Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6428, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Houston Astros", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:19.583Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:19.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.612Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6429, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Angels", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:55.364Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:55.365Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.624Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6430, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:33.958Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:33.959Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.632Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6431, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:30.374Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:30.375Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.640Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6432, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New York Mets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:58.484Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:58.485Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.651Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6433, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "New York Yankees", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:13.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:13.927Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6434, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Philadelphia Phillies", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:26.694Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:26.695Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.670Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6435, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "San Diego Padres", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:07.916Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:07.917Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.679Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6436, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "San Francisco Giants", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:23.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:23.068Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.687Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6437, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "St. Louis Cardinals", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:04.917Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 11, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:04.918Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.696Z", "description": null, "display_probability": 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the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:01.638Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 13, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:01.638Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.712Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6440, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:10.850Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 14, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:10.850Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-06T03:15:05.000Z", "created_at": "2022-05-06T13:47:24.721Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6441, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No team will win the 2022 World Series", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 73, "predictions_count": 542, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2379, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:51.833Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 15, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-06T17:04:51.834Z"}], "answers_count": 16, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 542, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-10-17T14:09:26.002Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 19, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "90%", "description": "\r\n <p>After a delayed start, the 2022 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 5 October 2022, with the playoffs to follow (<a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2022/04/07/mlb-predictions-2022-world-series-award-picks-new-season/9488333002/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>, <a href=\"https://www.mlb.com/schedule\" target=\"_blank\">MLB</a>). The question will be scheduled to suspend on 7 November 2022 and will be adjusted once the 2022 playoff schedule is released.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Houston Astros\" with a closing date of 5 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-06T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2379, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:25:57.157+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:23:17.621+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 542, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 73, "published_at": "2022-05-06T15:32:29.972Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-06T17:05:44.472Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-05-06T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-05-06T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2594 |
<p>The 2022-23 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 18 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/news/key-dates" target="_blank">NBA - Key Dates</a>, <a href="https://www.nba.com/standings" target="_blank">NBA - Standings</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Denver Nuggets" with a closing date of 12 June 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.281Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7324, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Boston Celtics", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:39.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:39.976Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.289Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7325, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:26.201Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:26.201Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.297Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7326, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Dallas Mavericks", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:34.611Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:34.612Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.305Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7327, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Denver Nuggets", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:29.087Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": 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true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:45.633Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:45.634Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.338Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7331, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Miami Heat", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:53.875Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:53.876Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": 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"probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:23.330Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 9, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:23.331Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.360Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7334, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Phoenix Suns", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:31.852Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 10, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:31.853Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-13T03:00:14.000Z", "created_at": "2022-10-21T14:23:11.368Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7335, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another team", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 54, "predictions_count": 512, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2594, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:51.144Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 11, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:51.145Z"}], "answers_count": 12, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 513, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-19T06:25:44.178Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 25, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "89%", "description": "\r\n <p>The 2022-23 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 18 June 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.nba.com/news/key-dates\" target=\"_blank\">NBA - Key Dates</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nba.com/standings\" target=\"_blank\">NBA - Standings</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Denver Nuggets\" with a closing date of 12 June 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-06-18T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2594, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 512, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 54, "published_at": "2022-10-21T14:26:05.851Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-13T13:01:53.882Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-10-21T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-10-21T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2945 |
<p>Max Verstappen, who won the 2022 World Drivers' Championship, held a commanding lead in the standings as of the British Grand Prix on 9 July 2023 (<a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082114-british-f1-grand-prix-2023-results-max-verstappen-wins-lewis-hamilton-finishes-3rd" target="_blank">Bleacher Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (<a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/drivers.html" target="_blank">Formula 1 - Driver Standings</a>, <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2023/United_Arab_Emirates.html" target="_blank">Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Sergio Pérez" with a closing date of 18 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.846Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8780, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fernando Alonso", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:19.053Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:19.054Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.854Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8781, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lewis Hamilton", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:20.651Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:20.652Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8782, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Sergio P\u00e9rez", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:22.196Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:22.197Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.874Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8783, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "George Russell", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:13.087Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:13.088Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.884Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8784, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Carlos Sainz", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:17.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:17.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.893Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8785, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Max Verstappen", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:14.547Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:14.548Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T07:35:31.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-14T15:39:47.903Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8786, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another driver", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 40, "predictions_count": 282, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2945, "question_name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:16.053Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:16.054Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 288, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-07-14T19:44:03.624Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 127, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Max Verstappen, who won the 2022 World Drivers' Championship, held a commanding lead in the standings as of the British Grand Prix on 9 July 2023 (<a href=\"https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082114-british-f1-grand-prix-2023-results-max-verstappen-wins-lewis-hamilton-finishes-3rd\" target=\"_blank\">Bleacher Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (<a href=\"https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/drivers.html\" target=\"_blank\">Formula 1 - Driver Standings</a>, <a href=\"https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2023/United_Arab_Emirates.html\" target=\"_blank\">Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Sergio P\u00e9rez\" with a closing date of 18 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-26T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2945, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 282, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 40, "published_at": "2023-07-14T15:48:28.255Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-19T18:44:22.203Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-14T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-14T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3145 | <p>Mortgage rates fell from multi-decade highs in November 2023 and are expected to fall as expectations of additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve recede (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-fall-high-152337016.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>). The question will be suspended 20 March 2024 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For the week ending 16 November 2023, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 7.44%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.399Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9680, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 5.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.0182, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0182, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.914Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.415Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "9%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9681, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.50% and 5.90%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0882, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0882, "probability_formatted": "9%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.897Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.431Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "28%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9682, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 5.90% but lower than 6.30%", "normalized_probability": 0.2759, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.2759, "probability_formatted": "28%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.922Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.443Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "40%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9683, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.30% and 6.70%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.3964, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.3964, "probability_formatted": "40%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.901Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.459Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "15%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9684, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 6.70% but lower than 7.10%", "normalized_probability": 0.145, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.145, "probability_formatted": "15%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.910Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9685, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 7.10% and 7.50%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0495, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0495, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.918Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T20:27:49.491Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9686, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 7.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.0268, "positions_count": 55, "predictions_count": 137, "probability": 0.0268, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3145, "question_name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:06.906Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 137, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Mortgage rates fell from multi-decade highs in November 2023 and are expected to fall as expectations of additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve recede (<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-fall-high-152337016.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>). The question will be suspended 20 March 2024 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). For the week ending 16 November 2023, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 7.44%.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-21T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": true, "id": 3145, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 137, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 55, "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:56:23.740Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-01T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-01T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T02:24:09.262Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2986 |
<p>Gasoline prices in the US reached 10-month highs in August 2023 as oil prices rise (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/gas-prices-going-up/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4152332-gasoline-prices-on-the-rise-despite-high-oil-production-in-the-us/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the spot price per barrel per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $70.00 but less than $80.00" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.062Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8975, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $60.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:57:53.864Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:57:53.864Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8976, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:56:15.993Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:56:15.994Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.078Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8977, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $70.00 but less than $80.00", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:07.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:07.102Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.084Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8978, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:20.735Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:20.736Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.091Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8979, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $90.00 but less than $100.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:57:00.457Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:57:00.457Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.098Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8980, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:30.060Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:53:30.061Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-29T19:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-18T14:08:38.105Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8981, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $110.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 600, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2986, "question_name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:20.329Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:20.330Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 600, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-17T06:55:59.275Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 43, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "68%", "description": "\r\n <p>Gasoline prices in the US reached 10-month highs in August 2023 as oil prices rise (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/gas-prices-going-up/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4152332-gasoline-prices-on-the-rise-despite-high-oil-production-in-the-us/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the spot price per barrel per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00\" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-29T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2986, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 600, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2023-08-18T15:04:01.593Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-05T15:57:53.889Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T16:07:30.271Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1482 | <p>The BAFTA Awards are scheduled for 2 February 2020 (<a href="http://www.bafta.org/film/awards/ee-british-academy-film-awards-nominees-winners-2020#best-film" target="_blank">Bafta.org</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "1917" with a closing date of 2 February 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:48.577Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3343, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1917", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:25.575Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:09.154Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:48.694Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3344, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Irishman", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:22.615Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:09.500Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:48.811Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3345, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joker", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:19.307Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:09.922Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:48.917Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3346, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:16.160Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:10.516Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:48.960Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3347, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Parasite", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:13.055Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:11.056Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-03T02:00:45.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-09T23:58:49.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3348, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 95, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1482, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:10.023Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:11.508Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 95, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-01-10T19:47:26.992Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The BAFTA Awards are scheduled for 2 February 2020 (<a href=\"http://www.bafta.org/film/awards/ee-british-academy-film-awards-nominees-winners-2020#best-film\" target=\"_blank\">Bafta.org</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"1917\" with a closing date of 2 February 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-02-02T07:59:06.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1482, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:12:22.966+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:11:51.270+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T20:24:39.462+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T20:19:43.366+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 95, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 60, "published_at": "2020-01-10T17:16:43.581Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-03T02:27:25.632Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-02-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-10T10:00:06.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-10T18:00:06.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3036 | <p>A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-09-21/migrant-encounters-at-u-s-mexico-border-on-pace-to-reach-record-highs-in-september" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/latino/4219169-border-apprehensions-up-nearly-27-percent-from-july-to-august/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (<a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters" target="_blank">CBP</a>). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.228Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9200, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.005, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.005, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.482Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.239Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9201, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.005, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.005, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.511Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9202, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000", "normalized_probability": 0.005, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.005, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.488Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.255Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9203, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.018, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.018, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.501Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.265Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "81%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9204, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000", "normalized_probability": 0.81, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.81, "probability_formatted": "81%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.497Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.273Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "15%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9205, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.152, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.152, "probability_formatted": "15%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.506Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:24:56.283Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9206, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 950,000", "normalized_probability": 0.005, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 85, "probability": 0.005, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3036, "question_name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T11:28:46.492Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 85, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-09-21/migrant-encounters-at-u-s-mexico-border-on-pace-to-reach-record-highs-in-september\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/latino/4219169-border-apprehensions-up-nearly-27-percent-from-july-to-august/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (<a href=\"https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters\" target=\"_blank\">CBP</a>). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3036, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 85, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 19, "published_at": "2023-09-29T15:50:49.165Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:12.432Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3042 |
<p>After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/house-speaker-fight-live-updates-gop-faces-uncharted-waters-kevin-mcca-rcna118731" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67004970" target="_blank">BBC</a>). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (<a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20170516_97-780_639aba8735a9bc6f259f3477eb5af338b81b30c2.pdf" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 October 2023</span>: A new Speaker elected with a time-limited term would count. A vote to expand the powers of the Speaker of the House Pro Tempore alone would not count.</p><hr><p>The question closed "Another current Republican Representative" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.755Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9226, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Tom Emmer (MN)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:22.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:22.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.818Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9227, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Garret Graves (LA)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:53.916Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:53.917Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.826Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9228, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Jim Jordan (OH)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:49.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:49.508Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.834Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9229, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:57.934Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:57.935Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9230, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Steve Scalise (LA)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:04.940Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:04.941Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.850Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9231, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:27.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:27.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.857Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9232, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another current Republican Representative", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:12.749Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:12.750Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-25T17:56:55.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9233, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 634, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3042, "question_name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:45.704Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-25T18:18:45.705Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 660, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-10-18T20:05:50.841Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "67%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/house-speaker-fight-live-updates-gop-faces-uncharted-waters-kevin-mcca-rcna118731\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67004970\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (<a href=\"https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20170516_97-780_639aba8735a9bc6f259f3477eb5af338b81b30c2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Research Service</a>). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 18 October 2023</span>: A new Speaker elected with a time-limited term would count. A vote to expand the powers of the Speaker of the House Pro Tempore alone would not count.</p><hr><p>The question closed \"Another current Republican Representative\" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3042, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 634, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2023-10-04T20:52:20.975Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-25T18:19:27.460Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-10-25T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-04T13:52:20.975-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-04T20:45:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695 |
<p>Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail" target="_blank">Centre for International Governance Innovation</a>). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.</p><p>This question is the shorter-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s" target="_blank">#1696</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 November 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial.</p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 30 November 2020</span>: For the purpose of this question, whether criminal charges are filed against a defendant by a grand jury, prosecutor, or other party is immaterial. A defendant will "face criminal charges" upon being charged.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, a paid backup driver" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:24:45.303Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4140, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, a firm", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1695, "question_name": "Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:36.851Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:36.854Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:24:45.324Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4141, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1695, "question_name": "Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:30.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:30.814Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:24:45.344Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4142, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1695, "question_name": "Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:44.656Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:44.657Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-01T15:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-10T16:24:45.363Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4143, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 289, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1695, "question_name": "Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:52.604Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:52.605Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 362, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (<a href=\"https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/\" target=\"_blank\">Ars Technica</a>, <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail\" target=\"_blank\">Centre for International Governance Innovation</a>). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.</p><p>This question is the shorter-term companion of question <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s\" target=\"_blank\">#1696</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.<br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 12 November 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, to \"face criminal charges\" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial.</p><p><span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 30 November 2020</span>: For the purpose of this question, whether criminal charges are filed against a defendant by a grand jury, prosecutor, or other party is immaterial. A defendant will \"face criminal charges\" upon being charged.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, a paid backup driver\" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T22:59:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1695, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:08.484+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:21.197+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:41:25.627+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:34:49.553+00:00"}, "name": "Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 289, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 150, "published_at": "2020-07-10T17:00:48.865Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-02T18:58:52.616Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-10T10:00:48.865-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-10T17:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.132Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2709 |
<p>Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for Sunday 12 February in Glendale, AZ (<a href="https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl" target="_blank">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "AFC Champion" with a closing date of 12 February 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-13T03:15:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:24:00.402Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7759, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "AFC Champion", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2709, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:19.911Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:19.912Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-13T03:15:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:24:00.411Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7760, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "NFC Champion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2709, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:17.505Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:17.507Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-13T03:15:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:24:00.422Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7761, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No Super Bowl will be played before 7 March 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 119, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2709, "question_name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:18.738Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:18.739Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 119, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-02-13T03:13:23.313Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for Sunday 12 February in Glendale, AZ (<a href=\"https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl\" target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"AFC Champion\" with a closing date of 12 February 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-03-07T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2709, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 119, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 45, "published_at": "2023-01-13T15:39:58.739Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-13T14:29:19.922Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-12T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-13T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-13T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1704 |
<p>There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2020" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-07-03/republicans-democrats-in-tight-battle-for-gubernatorial-advantage-in-2020" target="_blank">US News</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:22:11.889Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4175, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1704, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of North Carolina in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:46:09.194Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.107Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:22:11.912Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4176, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1704, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of North Carolina in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:46:43.235Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.159Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2020-07-16T16:22:11.934Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4177, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 387, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1704, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of North Carolina in 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:47:12.840Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:56.229Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 387, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-07-16T17:29:25.110Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 110, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2020\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-07-03/republicans-democrats-in-tight-battle-for-gubernatorial-advantage-in-2020\" target=\"_blank\">US News</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom:10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? </span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1704, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:29:25.267+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:28:48.236+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T18:18:51.806+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:15:49.752+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected governor of North Carolina in 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 387, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 144, "published_at": "2020-07-16T16:51:32.228Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-04T19:47:13.018Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-07-16T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1460 | <p>The outcome will be determined by the closing price for Brent crude oil as reported by Business Insider (<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/historical-prices/oil-price/usd?type=brent" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than $63.00 per barrel" with a closing date of 31 March 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-01T06:59:42.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-20T16:58:36.784Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3213, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $63.00 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 346, "predictions_count": 1147, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1460, "question_name": "What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-01T13:27:39.239Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:14.088Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-01T06:59:42.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-20T16:58:36.817Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3214, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $63.00 and $69.00 per barrel, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 346, "predictions_count": 1147, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1460, "question_name": "What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-01T13:27:27.844Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:14.999Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-01T06:59:42.000Z", "created_at": "2019-12-20T16:58:36.840Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3215, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $69.00 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 346, "predictions_count": 1147, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1460, "question_name": "What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-01T13:27:12.413Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:09:15.652Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1193, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-02-03T22:04:59.895Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 56, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "45%", "description": "<p>The outcome will be determined by the closing price for Brent crude oil as reported by Business Insider (<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/historical-prices/oil-price/usd?type=brent\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than $63.00 per barrel\" with a closing date of 31 March 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-03-31T06:59:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1460, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:12:36.649+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:10:43.532+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:32:54.852+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:23:16.035+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1147, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 346, "published_at": "2019-12-20T17:50:05.713Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-01T13:27:39.252Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-12-20T10:00:08.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-12-20T18:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.092Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2800 |
<p>The banking sector was hit hard by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March 2023, though intervention by the FDIC and Federal Reserve at least initially calmed the situation (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/first-republic-shares-jump-as-regional-banks-try-to-rebound-from-mondays-selloff.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/business/bank-stocks-tuesday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 15 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPSIRBK:INDEXSP?window=1M" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>, set chart to "1M").</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 16 June 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.470Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8074, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1,200.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:53.851Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:53.852Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.479Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8075, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:55.094Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:55.094Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.487Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8076, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,350.00 but less than 1,500.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:02:00.861Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:02:00.862Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.495Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8077, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,500.00 and 1,650.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:56.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:56.272Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.503Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8078, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,650.00 but less than 1,800.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:57.396Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:57.397Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.511Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8079, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,800.00 and 1,950.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:58.504Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:58.504Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-16T20:00:16.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.520Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8080, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,950.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 214, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2800, "question_name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:59.664Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:01:59.664Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 214, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>The banking sector was hit hard by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March 2023, though intervention by the FDIC and Federal Reserve at least initially calmed the situation (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/first-republic-shares-jump-as-regional-banks-try-to-rebound-from-mondays-selloff.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/business/bank-stocks-tuesday/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 15 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPSIRBK:INDEXSP?window=1M\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>, set chart to \"1M\").</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive\" with a closing date of 16 June 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-06-16T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2800, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 214, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 25, "published_at": "2023-03-17T14:36:55.594Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-17T14:02:00.868Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-17T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-17T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3093 | <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 19-20 March 2024.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-03T14:18:36.033Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "35%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9421, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.35, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.35, "probability_formatted": "35%", "question_id": 3093, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 March 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 31 January 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:57:43.897Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-03T14:18:36.043Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "65%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9422, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 0.65, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.65, "probability_formatted": "65%", "question_id": 3093, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 March 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 31 January 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:57:43.892Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-03T14:18:36.051Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9423, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 130, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3093, "question_name": "At close of business on 20 March 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 31 January 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:57:43.886Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 130, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 19-20 March 2024.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-20T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3093, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 20 March 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 31 January 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 130, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 44, "published_at": "2023-11-03T14:57:48.850Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-03T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-03T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:57:46.243Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3033 | <p>The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank shook the financial system in the beginning of 2023, and concerns over more potential turmoil remain (<a href="https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/bfb2023.html" target="_blank">FDIC - Bank Failures in Brief</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/29/business/bank-long-term-debt-rule/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/22/bank-capital-rules-failures-supervision-us-fed-silicon-valley-bank" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/27/kevin-oleary-fed-hikes-may-lead-to-more-us-regional-bank-failures-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks</a>, see "June 30, 2023"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., <a href="https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/" target="_blank">FDIC</a>). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/alvarez20100901a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - Wachovia</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:55:36.249Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "44%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9190, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.4413, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.4413, "probability_formatted": "44%", "question_id": 3033, "question_name": "How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T09:10:49.522Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:55:36.257Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "25%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9191, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.2538, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.2538, "probability_formatted": "25%", "question_id": 3033, "question_name": "How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T09:10:49.516Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:55:36.264Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "19%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9192, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "2 or 3", "normalized_probability": 0.1856, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.1856, "probability_formatted": "19%", "question_id": 3033, "question_name": "How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T09:10:49.526Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-09-29T13:55:36.271Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9193, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.1194, "positions_count": 38, "predictions_count": 102, "probability": 0.1194, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3033, "question_name": "How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T09:10:49.530Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 106, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank shook the financial system in the beginning of 2023, and concerns over more potential turmoil remain (<a href=\"https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/bfb2023.html\" target=\"_blank\">FDIC - Bank Failures in Brief</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/29/business/bank-long-term-debt-rule/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/22/bank-capital-rules-failures-supervision-us-fed-silicon-valley-bank\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/27/kevin-oleary-fed-hikes-may-lead-to-more-us-regional-bank-failures-.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, \"the largest commercial banks in the US\" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of \"Large Commercial Banks\" as of 30 June 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks</a>, see \"June 30, 2023\"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/\" target=\"_blank\">FDIC</a>). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/alvarez20100901a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve - Wachovia</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3033, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 29 September 2023 and 30 September 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 102, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 38, "published_at": "2023-09-29T15:50:39.232Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-09T14:33:44.983Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3142 | <p>The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 March 2024 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in early April 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU" target="_blank">FRED</a>). On 22 November 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.0871.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.564Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9651, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 1.000", "normalized_probability": 0.004, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.004, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.068Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.572Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "4%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9652, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0365, "positions_count": 48, "predictions_count": 106, "probability": 0.0365, "probability_formatted": "4%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T10:28:44.419Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.579Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "22%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9653, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080", "normalized_probability": 0.2205, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.2205, "probability_formatted": "22%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.058Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.587Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "53%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9654, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.5275, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.5275, "probability_formatted": "53%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.063Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.594Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "18%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9655, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160", "normalized_probability": 0.1785, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.1785, "probability_formatted": "18%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.081Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.601Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9656, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0285, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.0285, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.077Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-30T16:54:45.608Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9657, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 1.200", "normalized_probability": 0.0045, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 108, "probability": 0.0045, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3142, "question_name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:14.072Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 108, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 March 2024 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in early April 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). On 22 November 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.0871.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-03-28T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3142, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to one euro on 28 March 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 108, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:56:14.137Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-01T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-01T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T18:26:16.305Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2412 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 1-2 November 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher" with a closing date of 2 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-02T21:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:35:16.273Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6580, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2412, "question_name": "At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:18.736Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:18.737Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-02T21:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:35:16.283Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6581, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2412, "question_name": "At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:20.290Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:20.291Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-02T21:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:35:16.292Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6582, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 51, "predictions_count": 153, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2412, "question_name": "At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:21.862Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:21.863Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 165, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-10T17:09:49.764Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 145, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 1-2 November 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher\" with a closing date of 2 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2022-11-02T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2412, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:17:32.346+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:17:06.524+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 153, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 51, "published_at": "2022-06-10T15:35:16.358Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-02T22:12:21.900Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-10T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-10T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2273 |
<p>Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney is facing opposition from within the Republican Party over her work with the House committee investigating the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot and her opposition to former President Trump (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Wyoming,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/590864-jan-6-probe-roils-cheney-race-in-wyoming" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/liz-cheney-facing-trump-backed-primary-opponent-state-gop-distances-themselves-1672344" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The Wyoming GOP Primary is scheduled for 16 August 2022 (<a href="https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2022/2022_Election_Calendar.pdf" target="_blank">WY Secretary of State</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Harriet Hageman" with a closing date of 16 August 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-17T01:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:38:32.775Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6070, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Liz Cheney", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 244, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2273, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's US House seat in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:32.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:32.337Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-17T01:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:38:32.792Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6071, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Harriet Hageman", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 244, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2273, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's US House seat in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:30.472Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:30.473Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-17T01:00:28.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:38:32.809Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6072, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 244, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2273, "question_name": "Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's US House seat in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:28.720Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:28.721Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 254, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-03-07T15:17:13.737Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 162, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "\r\n <p>Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney is facing opposition from within the Republican Party over her work with the House committee investigating the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot and her opposition to former President Trump (<a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Wyoming,_2022\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/590864-jan-6-probe-roils-cheney-race-in-wyoming\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/liz-cheney-facing-trump-backed-primary-opponent-state-gop-distances-themselves-1672344\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>). The Wyoming GOP Primary is scheduled for 16 August 2022 (<a href=\"https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2022/2022_Election_Calendar.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">WY Secretary of State</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Harriet Hageman\" with a closing date of 16 August 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-08-16T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2273, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's US House seat in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 244, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 72, "published_at": "2022-02-18T17:55:29.042Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-17T13:25:32.345Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-08-16T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-18T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-18T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2524 |
<p>Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (<a href="https://dailytrust.com/just-in-inec-sets-new-dates-for-2023-general-elections" target="_blank">Daily Trust</a>, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/07/amid-nigerias-turmoil-election-could-alter-its-democracy" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>, <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/06/buhari-meets-boris-johnson-insists-on-respecting-nations-maximum-term-limit/" target="_blank">Vanguard</a>). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and "at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31111572" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate" with a closing date of 25 February 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-25T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T15:09:08.312Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7059, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2524, "question_name": "Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-01T15:58:38.427Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-01T15:58:38.427Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-25T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T15:09:08.322Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7060, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2524, "question_name": "Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-01T15:59:39.750Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-01T15:59:39.751Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-25T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T15:09:08.330Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7061, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2524, "question_name": "Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-01T16:00:53.070Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-01T16:00:53.071Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-25T19:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2022-08-26T15:09:08.339Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7062, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 144, "predictions_count": 367, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2524, "question_name": "Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-01T15:57:44.855Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-03-01T15:57:44.856Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 369, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-08-28T18:47:42.742Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 181, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (<a href=\"https://dailytrust.com/just-in-inec-sets-new-dates-for-2023-general-elections\" target=\"_blank\">Daily Trust</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/07/amid-nigerias-turmoil-election-could-alter-its-democracy\" target=\"_blank\">US Institute of Peace</a>, <a href=\"https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/06/buhari-meets-boris-johnson-insists-on-respecting-nations-maximum-term-limit/\" target=\"_blank\">Vanguard</a>). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and \"at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria\u2019s 36 states\" (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31111572\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close \"A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023.\"</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate\" with a closing date of 25 February 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-02-25T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2524, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 367, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 144, "published_at": "2022-08-26T16:07:26.671Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-03-01T16:00:53.100Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-25T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-08-26T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-08-26T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2177 |
<p>Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US (<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/574926-how-the-us-can-build-ev-charging-infrastructure-that-works" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (<a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC" target="_blank">Alternative Fueling Station Locator</a>, parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab. First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type," select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to both "Level 2" and "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All."</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 49,000" with a closing date of 29 April 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-29T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.546Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5701, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 49,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 398, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2177, "question_name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:28.176Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:28.178Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-29T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.567Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5702, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 398, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2177, "question_name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:30.576Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:30.576Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-29T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.583Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5703, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 398, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2177, "question_name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:35.128Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:35.128Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-29T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.598Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5704, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 398, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2177, "question_name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:37.634Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:37.635Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-29T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.613Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5705, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 61,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 81, "predictions_count": 398, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2177, "question_name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:32.831Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:32.832Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 437, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-25T20:58:07.866Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 94, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "48%", "description": "\r\n <p>Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/574926-how-the-us-can-build-ev-charging-infrastructure-that-works\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (<a href=\"https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC\" target=\"_blank\">Alternative Fueling Station Locator</a>, parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type,\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to both \"Level 2\" and \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 49,000\" with a closing date of 29 April 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-04-29T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2177, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 398, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 81, "published_at": "2021-10-29T15:32:07.712Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-29T22:15:37.642Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-04-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2271 |
<p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:08:45.455Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6064, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2271, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:45.732Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:45.733Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:08:45.474Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6065, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2271, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:48.286Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:48.287Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:29.000Z", "created_at": "2022-02-17T22:08:45.494Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6066, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 52, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2271, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:42.878Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:42.879Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 282, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>, <a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2271, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:28:34.086+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:58.006+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 281, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 52, "published_at": "2022-02-18T17:55:22.229Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-16T16:37:48.294Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-02-18T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-02-18T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2337 |
<p>Record-high oil and gasoline prices have put a renewed focus on oil and gas production in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/07/oil-industry-production-hikes-russia-00014778" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11/permian.aspx" target="_blank">Dallas Fed - Permian Basin</a>). The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count "is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada" (<a href="https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-faqs" target="_blank">Baker Hughes - Rig Count FAQs</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for the "Permian" first released in October 2022 (<a href="https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count" target="_blank">Baker Hughes - Rig Count</a>). To download the data, click "North American Rotary Rig Count (Jan 2000 - Current)" to download the spreadsheet. Navigate to the sheet named "US Count by Basin," find the "Permian" columns, and sum the figures under "Oil" and "Gas." The first October data are expected on 7 October 2022. Figures marked "Misc" are immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 326 and 375" with a closing date of 7 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.413Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6239, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 275", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:10.622Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:10.623Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.426Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6240, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 275 and 325", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:21.141Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:21.142Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.437Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6241, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 326 and 375", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:16.717Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:16.718Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.449Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6242, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 376 and 425", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:12.608Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:12.608Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.460Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6243, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 426 and 475", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:19.135Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:19.136Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-07T16:30:50.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T16:25:34.470Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6244, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 475", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 291, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2337, "question_name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:14.647Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:14.648Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 291, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-06-05T22:00:33.606Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 124, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "34%", "description": "\r\n <p>Record-high oil and gasoline prices have put a renewed focus on oil and gas production in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/07/oil-industry-production-hikes-russia-00014778\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11/permian.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Dallas Fed - Permian Basin</a>). The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count \"is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada\" (<a href=\"https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-faqs\" target=\"_blank\">Baker Hughes - Rig Count FAQs</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for the \"Permian\" first released in October 2022 (<a href=\"https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count\" target=\"_blank\">Baker Hughes - Rig Count</a>). To download the data, click \"North American Rotary Rig Count (Jan 2000 - Current)\" to download the spreadsheet. Navigate to the sheet named \"US Count by Basin,\" find the \"Permian\" columns, and sum the figures under \"Oil\" and \"Gas.\" The first October data are expected on 7 October 2022. Figures marked \"Misc\" are immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 326 and 375\" with a closing date of 7 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-07T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2337, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:28:38.952+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:27:12.649+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 291, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2022-04-01T16:28:57.077Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-07T20:55:21.150Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-07T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2730 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of 21 January 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.2%. The data for 1 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 May 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T22:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-26T23:04:04.403Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7824, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 38.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2730, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:32.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:32.676Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T22:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-26T23:04:04.412Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7825, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2730, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:34.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:34.395Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T22:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-26T23:04:04.419Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7826, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2730, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:36.465Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:36.466Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T22:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-26T23:04:04.426Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7827, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2730, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:38.155Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:38.155Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T22:00:47.000Z", "created_at": "2023-01-26T23:04:04.433Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7828, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 50.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 61, "predictions_count": 306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2730, "question_name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:39.827Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:39.827Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 312, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-02-06T03:35:41.450Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 85, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "10%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (<a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>). As of 21 January 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.2%. The data for 1 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 May 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%\" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2730, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 306, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 61, "published_at": "2023-01-27T17:15:26.730Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-03T20:55:39.834Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-01-27T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-01-27T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2144 | <p>The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (<a href="https://www.airnow.gov/about-airnow/" target="_blank">AirNow.gov</a>). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose "Dubai" under "Select a City," and click on the "Historical" tab. Click on the file for "2022 PM2.5 YTD," when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a "3" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.<p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.380Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5599, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 85.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 288, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2144, "question_name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:39.227Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:39.228Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.402Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5600, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 288, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2144, "question_name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:42.955Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:42.956Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.417Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5601, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 95.00 but less than 105.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 288, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2144, "question_name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:44.790Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:44.791Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.431Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5602, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 288, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2144, "question_name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:41.099Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:41.099Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-04-01T14:00:20.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.445Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5603, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 115.00", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 288, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2144, "question_name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:46.840Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:46.841Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 295, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-03-24T21:26:23.184Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "96%", "description": "<p>The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (<a href=\"https://www.airnow.gov/about-airnow/\" target=\"_blank\">AirNow.gov</a>). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.<p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-03-31T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2144, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 288, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2021-10-01T15:20:56.535Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-04-01T18:56:46.850Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-03-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2855 |
<p>Fifty-five countries competed in the UEFA Nations League tournament, which will end in games among the four League A group winners in the Netherlands (<a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/027b-16b47112868b-6b5416b5d363-1000--finals-hosts-netherlands/" target="_blank">UEFA - Nations League Finals</a>). The third UEFA Nations League Final is scheduled for 18 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/" target="_blank">UEFA</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Spain" with a closing date of 18 June 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-18T21:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-13T16:36:59.343Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8402, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Croatia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 90, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2855, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:57.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:57.976Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-18T21:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-13T16:36:59.351Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8403, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Italy", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 90, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2855, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:58.697Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:58.698Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-18T21:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-13T16:36:59.358Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8404, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Netherlands", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 90, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2855, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:59.598Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-19T13:25:59.599Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-06-18T21:30:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-04-13T16:36:59.364Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8405, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Spain", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 90, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2855, "question_name": "Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-19T13:26:00.327Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-06-19T13:26:00.328Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 90, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-04-19T20:25:03.741Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 60, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "\r\n <p>Fifty-five countries competed in the UEFA Nations League tournament, which will end in games among the four League A group winners in the Netherlands (<a href=\"https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/027b-16b47112868b-6b5416b5d363-1000--finals-hosts-netherlands/\" target=\"_blank\">UEFA - Nations League Finals</a>). The third UEFA Nations League Final is scheduled for 18 June 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/\" target=\"_blank\">UEFA</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Spain\" with a closing date of 18 June 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-06-18T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2855, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 90, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2023-04-13T16:40:25.969Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-06-19T13:26:00.336Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-06-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-04-13T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-04-13T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3065 | <p>The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2023 despite ongoing fears that rising interest rates will slow hiring (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/06/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-september-2023-in-one-chart.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-03/us-job-openings-unexpectedly-rise-in-august" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS" target="_blank">FRED</a>, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-13T14:18:18.782Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9312, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between October 2023 and December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.001, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.001, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3065, "question_name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T19:57:11.469Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-13T14:18:18.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "11%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9313, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between January 2024 and March 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.112, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.112, "probability_formatted": "11%", "question_id": 3065, "question_name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:17:22.564Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-13T14:18:18.798Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "15%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9314, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between April 2024 and June 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.147, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.147, "probability_formatted": "15%", "question_id": 3065, "question_name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T17:48:15.769Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-13T14:18:18.806Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "18%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9315, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between July 2024 and September 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.18, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 77, "probability": 0.18, "probability_formatted": "18%", "question_id": 3065, "question_name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T17:48:15.765Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-13T14:18:18.813Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "56%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9316, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.56, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 78, "probability": 0.56, "probability_formatted": "56%", "question_id": 3065, "question_name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:17:22.569Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 78, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2023 despite ongoing fears that rising interest rates will slow hiring (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/06/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-september-2023-in-one-chart.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-03/us-job-openings-unexpectedly-rise-in-august\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>, click \"EDIT GRAPH\" and change \"Units\" to \"Change, Thousands of Persons\"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3065, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 78, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 19, "published_at": "2023-10-13T16:42:43.880Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-13T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-13T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:17:24.962Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3118 | <p>As Israel's fight with Hamas continues, observers are speculating about the future role of the Palestinian Authority in the region (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/the-aftermath-of-the-war-with-israel-will-shape-palestinian-life" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231022-gaza-war-heaps-pressure-on-palestinian-president-abbas" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-says-palestinian-authority-should-not-run-gaza" target="_blank">New Arab</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-14T14:44:08.714Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "18%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9533, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 14 April 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.1757, "positions_count": 331, "predictions_count": 447, "probability": 0.1757, "probability_formatted": "18%", "question_id": 3118, "question_name": "When will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:15:17.999Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-14T14:44:08.728Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "29%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9534, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 April 2024 and 13 September 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.2947, "positions_count": 331, "predictions_count": 447, "probability": 0.2947, "probability_formatted": "29%", "question_id": 3118, "question_name": "When will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:15:18.011Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-14T14:44:08.734Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "53%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9535, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 14 September 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.5296, "positions_count": 331, "predictions_count": 447, "probability": 0.5296, "probability_formatted": "53%", "question_id": 3118, "question_name": "When will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:15:18.006Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 449, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>As Israel's fight with Hamas continues, observers are speculating about the future role of the Palestinian Authority in the region (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/the-aftermath-of-the-war-with-israel-will-shape-palestinian-life\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231022-gaza-war-heaps-pressure-on-palestinian-president-abbas\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-says-palestinian-authority-should-not-run-gaza\" target=\"_blank\">New Arab</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-09-14T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3118, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 447, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 331, "published_at": "2023-11-14T14:44:08.788Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-14T07:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-14T15:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:15:20.409Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1530 | <p>The Michigan primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/michigan-primary" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Joe Biden" with a closing date of 10 March 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:12.336Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3525, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Joe Biden", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:27.205Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:53.773Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:12.560Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3526, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Michael Bloomberg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:34.047Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.010Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:12.701Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3527, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Pete Buttigieg", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:41.221Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.203Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:12.883Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3528, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Amy Klobuchar", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:47.960Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.376Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:13.165Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3529, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:11.724Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:13.432Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3530, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Elizabeth Warren", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:05.703Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.741Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-11T06:59:48.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-20T15:57:13.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3531, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1530, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:19.419Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:11:54.911Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 336, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-05T00:21:40.402Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "<p>The Michigan primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/michigan-primary\" target=\"_blank\">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Joe Biden\" with a closing date of 10 March 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-03-10T06:59:36.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1530, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:17:42.171+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:16:30.174+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:24:02.325+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:11:24.627+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 335, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 127, "published_at": "2020-02-21T17:19:19.395Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-11T13:30:48.017Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-09T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-21T10:00:36.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-21T18:00:36.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1791 |
<p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 26-27 January 2021.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 27 January 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-27T19:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:04:35.181Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4450, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 196, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1791, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:11.507Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:11.508Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-27T19:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:04:35.203Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4451, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 196, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1791, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:14.179Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:14.180Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-01-27T19:00:55.000Z", "created_at": "2020-09-17T23:04:35.226Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4452, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 114, "predictions_count": 196, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1791, "question_name": "At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:09.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:09.022Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 200, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-18T17:22:09.689Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 131, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 26-27 January 2021.</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 27 January 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-01-27T08:01:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1791, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:29.671+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:07.130+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:07:17.643+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:04:59.892+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 196, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 114, "published_at": "2020-09-18T16:49:48.873Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-27T19:51:14.193Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-01-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-09-18T10:00:47.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-09-18T17:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2068 |
<p>Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/homes/us-home-prices-and-existing-home-sales-may-feseries/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/home-price-gains-in-april-truly-extraordinary-sp-case-shiller-says.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA" target="_blank">FRED</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-09T14:43:22.173Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5356, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 250.00000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2068, "question_name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:34.377Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:34.378Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-09T14:43:22.202Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5357, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2068, "question_name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:37.197Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:37.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-09T14:43:22.231Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5358, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2068, "question_name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:42.147Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:42.148Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-09T14:43:22.261Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5359, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2068, "question_name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:44.586Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:44.587Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-11-01T14:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2021-07-09T14:43:22.291Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5360, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 280.00000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 74, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2068, "question_name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:39.757Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:39.758Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 393, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-10-09T15:14:19.662Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 23, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "80%", "description": "\r\n <p>Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/homes/us-home-prices-and-existing-home-sales-may-feseries/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/home-price-gains-in-april-truly-extraordinary-sp-case-shiller-says.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-11-01T07:01:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2068, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:36.336+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:58.362+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 356, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 74, "published_at": "2021-07-09T16:25:25.739Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-28T23:40:44.595Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-07-09T10:00:08.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-07-09T17:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1844 |
<p>Coursera is a massive open online course (MOOC) provider for distance learning (<a href="https://about.coursera.org/" target="_blank">Coursera</a>). The course “Finding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most” is offered through Coursera by the University of Michigan (<a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/finding-purpose-and-meaning-in-life" target="_blank">Coursera - Course Website</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the course website as of approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 November 2020. As of 1 November 2020, Learners totaled 79,211. As of 16 November 2020, Learners totaled 85,057.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The answer closed "Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-29T22:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:51:40.158Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4582, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 87,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1844, "question_name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:28.488Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:10.498Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-29T22:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:51:40.188Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4583, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1844, "question_name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:30.315Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:10.591Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-29T22:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:51:40.211Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4584, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 89,000 but fewer than 91,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1844, "question_name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:32.174Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:10.665Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-29T22:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:51:40.234Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4585, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 91,000 and 94,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1844, "question_name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:34.228Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:10.745Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-29T22:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-11-17T16:51:40.257Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4586, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 94,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 46, "predictions_count": 123, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1844, "question_name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:36.077Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:16:10.819Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 126, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-11-23T01:24:44.881Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "42%", "description": "\r\n <p>Coursera is a massive open online course (MOOC) provider for distance learning (<a href=\"https://about.coursera.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Coursera</a>). The course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most\u201d is offered through Coursera by the University of Michigan (<a href=\"https://www.coursera.org/learn/finding-purpose-and-meaning-in-life\" target=\"_blank\">Coursera - Course Website</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the course website as of approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 November 2020. As of 1 November 2020, Learners totaled 79,211. As of 16 November 2020, Learners totaled 85,057.</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The answer closed \"Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 29 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-29T08:01:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1844, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:33.436+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:34:14.382+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T22:34:28.528+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:31:42.055+00:00"}, "name": "On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 123, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 46, "published_at": "2020-11-17T17:41:20.403Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-29T22:05:36.096Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-11-17T10:00:44.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-11-17T18:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2207 |
<p>Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210309-lula-s-return-opens-door-to-bolsonaro-showdown-in-polarised-brazil" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://english.tse.jus.br/the-brazilian-electoral-system/elections-1" target="_blank">Superior Electoral Court</a>). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" with a closing date of 30 October 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.853Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5860, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:33.002Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:33.003Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.873Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5861, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jo\u00e3o Doria", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:23.364Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:23.365Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.888Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5862, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ciro Gomes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:13.028Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:13.029Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.904Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5863, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "S\u00e9rgio Moro", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:18.050Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:18.054Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.919Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5864, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:28.321Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:28.322Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-10-30T20:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2021-12-01T22:36:16.934Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5865, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Another candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 187, "predictions_count": 668, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2207, "question_name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:08.320Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:08.321Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 681, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-03T22:02:40.293Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 331, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (<a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210309-lula-s-return-opens-door-to-bolsonaro-showdown-in-polarised-brazil\" target=\"_blank\">France 24</a>, <a href=\"https://english.tse.jus.br/the-brazilian-electoral-system/elections-1\" target=\"_blank\">Superior Electoral Court</a>). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\" with a closing date of 30 October 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-10-30T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2207, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:28:50.942+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:26:05.183+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 668, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 187, "published_at": "2021-12-03T15:50:44.930Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-10-31T13:48:33.012Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-12-03T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-12-03T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2814 |
<p>Electric vehicles are penetrating the UK motor vehicle market, though gasoline (petrol) vehicle sales have jumped in 2023 (<a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/07/uk-plugins-drop-share-yoy-tesla-model-y-bestseller/" target="_blank">CleanTechnia</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the "April" data table from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in May 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (<a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/" target="_blank">SMMT - Car Registrations</a>, <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/" target="_blank">SMMT</a>). In April 2022, 12,899 new BEVs were registered in the UK (<a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/05/april-new-car-market-declines-15-8-as-supply-constraints-see-2022-outlook-downgraded/" target="_blank">SMMT - News 5 May 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8135, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 10,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:43.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:43.249Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.255Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8136, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:44.030Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:44.031Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.263Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8137, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 15,000 but fewer than 20,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:46.759Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:46.760Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.270Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8138, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:44.735Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:44.736Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8139, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 30,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:45.477Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:45.478Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-04T14:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-28T22:00:17.285Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8140, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "30,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 44, "predictions_count": 101, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2814, "question_name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:46.132Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:46.133Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 110, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Electric vehicles are penetrating the UK motor vehicle market, though gasoline (petrol) vehicle sales have jumped in 2023 (<a href=\"https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/07/uk-plugins-drop-share-yoy-tesla-model-y-bestseller/\" target=\"_blank\">CleanTechnia</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the \"April\" data table from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in May 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (<a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT - Car Registrations</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT</a>). In April 2022, 12,899 new BEVs were registered in the UK (<a href=\"https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/05/april-new-car-market-declines-15-8-as-supply-constraints-see-2022-outlook-downgraded/\" target=\"_blank\">SMMT - News 5 May 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-03T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2814, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 101, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 44, "published_at": "2023-03-29T13:54:39.356Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-04T14:58:46.766Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2095 |
<p>The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (<a href="https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/what-comes-after-delta-variant-coronavirus-who-names/" target="_blank">New Atlas</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/2021/08/13/doomsday-covid-variant-worse-delta-lambda-may-coming-scientists-say-1615874.html" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);font-size:14px;">NOTE 13 December 2021</span><span style="font-size:14px;">: As the CDC</span><span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="font-size:14px;"> has changed from two-week to one-week intervals, the question would close upon a variant other than Delta next representing more than 70.0</span>% for a one-week peri</span>od within the range covered by the appropriate bin.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 14 December 2021</span>: To further clarify the clarification note dated 13 December 2021, we are revising the remaining bins to align with the CDC's current practice. The third bin is now "A one-week period ending between <span style="background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);">27 November 2021</span> and <span style="background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);">15 January 2022</span>." The fourth bin is now "A one-week period ending between <span style="background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);">22 January 2022</span> and <span style="background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);">12 March 2022</span>."</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T15:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-06T14:58:17.273Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5446, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 202, "predictions_count": 814, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2095, "question_name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:42:52.331Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:42:52.332Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T15:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-06T14:58:17.314Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5447, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 202, "predictions_count": 814, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2095, "question_name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:43:14.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:43:14.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T15:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-06T14:58:17.340Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5448, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 202, "predictions_count": 814, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2095, "question_name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:44:02.959Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:44:02.960Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T15:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-06T14:58:17.366Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5449, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 202, "predictions_count": 814, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2095, "question_name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:43:39.406Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:43:39.407Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-12-19T15:00:10.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-06T14:58:17.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5450, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 13 March 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 202, "predictions_count": 814, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2095, "question_name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:44:19.183Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-12-21T15:44:19.184Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 989, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-19T07:05:27.754Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 1, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "99%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (<a href=\"https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/what-comes-after-delta-variant-coronavirus-who-names/\" target=\"_blank\">New Atlas</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/2021/08/13/doomsday-covid-variant-worse-delta-lambda-may-coming-scientists-say-1615874.html\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the \u201cNowcast\u201d option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.2;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);font-size:14px;\">NOTE 13 December 2021</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">: As the CDC</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"> has changed from two-week to one-week intervals, the question would close upon a variant other than Delta next representing more than 70.0</span>% for a one-week peri</span>od within the range covered by the appropriate bin.</p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 14 December 2021</span>: To further clarify the clarification note dated 13 December 2021, we are revising the remaining bins to align with the CDC's current practice. The third bin is now \"A one-week period ending between <span style=\"background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);\">27 November 2021</span> and <span style=\"background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);\">15 January 2022</span>.\" The fourth bin is now \"A one-week period ending between <span style=\"background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);\">22 January 2022</span> and <span style=\"background-color:rgb(247, 198, 206);\">12 March 2022</span>.\"</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022\" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2022-03-12T08:01:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2095, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:22.793+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:40.279+00:00"}, "name": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 814, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 202, "published_at": "2021-08-06T15:08:33.666Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-12-21T15:44:19.197Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-12-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-08-06T10:00:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-08-06T17:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2309 |
<p>With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (<a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/27/scholz-proposes-100-billion-euro-defense-fund-vows-to-exceed-nato-spending-goal/" target="_blank">Defense News</a>, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191898.htm" target="_blank">NATO - News</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2023 released in 2023, including estimates (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Information on defence expenditures</a>). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per "Download the tables in Excel format" will be used. According to the June 2021 report, which included estimates for 2021 spending, ten countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_184844.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021)</a>, see Download options at bottom of page).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 August 2022</span>: The outcome will be determined using data as reported by NATO for 2023, including Finland and Sweden if NATO reports their defense expenditures as member states.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 11 and 13" with a closing date of 7 July 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-07T13:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-10T21:09:39.091Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6136, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "10 or fewer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 462, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2309, "question_name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:34.880Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:34.881Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-07T13:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-10T21:09:39.114Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6137, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 11 and 13", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 462, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2309, "question_name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:28.441Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:28.442Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-07T13:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-10T21:09:39.150Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6138, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 14 and 16", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 462, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2309, "question_name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:25.110Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:25.111Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-07T13:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-10T21:09:39.177Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6139, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 17 and 19", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 462, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2309, "question_name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:31.751Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:31.752Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-07-07T13:00:34.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-10T21:09:39.217Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6140, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "20 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 131, "predictions_count": 462, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2309, "question_name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:38.046Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:38.046Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 474, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-03-22T15:12:42.810Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 285, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "4%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (<a href=\"https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/27/scholz-proposes-100-billion-euro-defense-fund-vows-to-exceed-nato-spending-goal/\" target=\"_blank\">Defense News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191898.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO - News</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2023 released in 2023, including estimates (<a href=\"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO - Information on defence expenditures</a>). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per \"Download the tables in Excel format\" will be used. According to the June 2021 report, which included estimates for 2021 spending, ten countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_184844.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021)</a>, see Download options at bottom of page).</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1.4;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 15 August 2022</span>: The outcome will be determined using data as reported by NATO for 2023, including Finland and Sweden if NATO reports their defense expenditures as member states.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 11 and 13\" with a closing date of 7 July 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2309, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:30:23.920+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:28:35.807+00:00"}, "name": "How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 462, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 131, "published_at": "2022-03-11T16:42:17.846Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-07-07T13:25:38.053Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-11T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-11T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890 |
<p>After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis" target="_blank">Xataka</a> [in Spanish], <a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html" target="_blank">El Economista</a> [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021" with a closing date of 10 March 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-10T22:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-31T15:59:00.895Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4717, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1890, "question_name": "When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:07.473Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:07.485Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-10T22:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-31T15:59:00.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4718, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 March and 31 March 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1890, "question_name": "When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:08.279Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:08.289Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-10T22:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-31T15:59:00.954Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4719, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1890, "question_name": "When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:08.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:08.983Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-03-10T22:30:39.000Z", "created_at": "2020-12-31T15:59:00.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4720, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 May 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 21, "predictions_count": 65, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1890, "question_name": "When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:09.709Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:09.718Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 66, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-01T10:10:13.435Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 68, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "\r\n <p>After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis\" target=\"_blank\">Xataka</a> [in Spanish], <a href=\"https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html\" target=\"_blank\">El Economista</a> [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021\" with a closing date of 10 March 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-05-01T07:01:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1890, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:56.278+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:47.217+00:00"}, "name": "When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 65, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 21, "published_at": "2020-12-31T22:11:57.357Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-03-11T16:06:09.734Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-03-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-12-31T14:11:57.357-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-12-31T18:00:08.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3071 | <p>The resilience of the US consumer is in focus as interest rates rise and US credit card debt is at record levels (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/generation-sees-biggest-increase-credit-card-debt-gen/story?id=102326452" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/credit-card-debt-rising-as-student-loan-payments-restart-rcna104442" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/news/banking/2023/bank-of-america-reports-rise-in-charge-off-and-delinquency-rates/" target="_blank">PYMNTS</a>). Charge-offs are debts that banks "write off," or record that they don't believe they will be repaid (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chargeoff.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Charge-off</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once first released, expected in August 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.947Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9340, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower than 2.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.001, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 52, "probability": 0.001, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-13T04:05:28.732Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.960Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "4%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9341, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.50% and 3.25%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.038, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 52, "probability": 0.038, "probability_formatted": "4%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-02T23:49:31.079Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.968Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "22%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9342, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 3.25% but lower than 4.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.218, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 52, "probability": 0.218, "probability_formatted": "22%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:49:06.767Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.976Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "48%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9343, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4.00% and 4.75%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.479, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 53, "probability": 0.479, "probability_formatted": "48%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:06:19.199Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.983Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "23%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9344, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 4.75% but lower than 5.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.231, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 53, "probability": 0.231, "probability_formatted": "23%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:06:19.205Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.991Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9345, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 5.50% and 6.25%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.031, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 53, "probability": 0.031, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:06:19.209Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-10-19T20:47:21.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9346, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher than 6.25%", "normalized_probability": 0.002, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 52, "probability": 0.002, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3071, "question_name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-31T18:20:25.709Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 53, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The resilience of the US consumer is in focus as interest rates rise and US credit card debt is at record levels (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/US/generation-sees-biggest-increase-credit-card-debt-gen/story?id=102326452\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/credit-card-debt-rising-as-student-loan-payments-restart-rcna104442\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.pymnts.com/news/banking/2023/bank-of-america-reports-rise-in-charge-off-and-delinquency-rates/\" target=\"_blank\">PYMNTS</a>). Charge-offs are debts that banks \"write off,\" or record that they don't believe they will be repaid (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chargeoff.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia - Charge-off</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once first released, expected in August 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-07-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3071, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 53, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 19, "published_at": "2023-10-20T15:29:30.985Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-20T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-20T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:06:21.750Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2488 |
<p>In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (<a href="https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>, <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html" target="_blank">China Daily</a>). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/8/czech-republic-eyes-exit-from-chinas-161-investment-club" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). The date the withdrawal would take effect would be immaterial, and a member's withdrawal announcement that is rescinded during the question's open period would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "1 or 2" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-21T22:15:36.626Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6934, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2488, "question_name": "Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T18:31:17.636Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T18:31:17.637Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-21T22:15:36.638Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6935, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "1 or 2", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2488, "question_name": "Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T18:30:37.072Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T18:30:37.073Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-21T22:15:36.646Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6936, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "3 or 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2488, "question_name": "Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T18:31:03.614Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T18:31:03.614Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-01-01T15:00:38.000Z", "created_at": "2022-07-21T22:15:36.655Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6937, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 36, "predictions_count": 180, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2488, "question_name": "Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T18:30:50.016Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-01-01T18:30:50.017Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 186, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-08-17T21:42:04.405Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 137, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "\r\n <p>In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" (<a href=\"https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571\" target=\"_blank\">Taipei Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html\" target=\"_blank\">China Daily</a>). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/8/czech-republic-eyes-exit-from-chinas-161-investment-club\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>). The date the withdrawal would take effect would be immaterial, and a member's withdrawal announcement that is rescinded during the question's open period would not count.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"1 or 2\" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2488, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:17:11.155+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:16:56.333+00:00"}, "name": "Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 180, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 36, "published_at": "2022-07-22T14:09:24.995Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-01-01T18:31:17.658Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-07-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-07-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1544 | <p>The 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, are scheduled for 24 July - 9 August 2020, with the Paralympic Games to follow 25 August - 6 September 2020 (<a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>, <a href="https://www.paralympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Paralympic.org</a>). There is speculation the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to postponing, canceling, or relocating the games (<a href="https://time.com/5786657/tokyo-olympics-coronavirus-asia-china/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/51543742" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/19/aoc-satisfied-tokyo-olympics-will-be-safe-from-coronavirus" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-three-months-tokyo-olympics-2020-ioc-1488944" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, both" with a closing date of 24 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52020134" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:25:34.789Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3608, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, the Olympic Games only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 503, "predictions_count": 1139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1544, "question_name": "Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-24T23:01:22.913Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:11.904Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:25:34.865Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3609, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, the Paralympic Games only", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 503, "predictions_count": 1139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1544, "question_name": "Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-24T23:01:10.923Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:12.030Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:25:34.903Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3610, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 503, "predictions_count": 1139, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1544, "question_name": "Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:58.208Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:12.162Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:25:34.947Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3611, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 503, "predictions_count": 1139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1544, "question_name": "Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:45.839Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:12:12.259Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1181, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-03-11T16:54:25.143Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "48%", "description": "<p>The 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, are scheduled for 24 July - 9 August 2020, with the Paralympic Games to follow 25 August - 6 September 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020\" target=\"_blank\">Olympic.org</a>, <a href=\"https://www.paralympic.org/tokyo-2020\" target=\"_blank\">Paralympic.org</a>). There is speculation the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to postponing, canceling, or relocating the games (<a href=\"https://time.com/5786657/tokyo-olympics-coronavirus-asia-china/\" target=\"_blank\">Time</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/51543742\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/19/aoc-satisfied-tokyo-olympics-will-be-safe-from-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-three-months-tokyo-olympics-2020-ioc-1488944\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, both\" with a closing date of 24 March 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52020134\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-07-24T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1544, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:19:58.103+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:17:29.791+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:28:05.676+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:18:37.072+00:00"}, "name": "Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1139, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 503, "published_at": "2020-02-28T16:44:07.315Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-03-24T23:01:22.938Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-03-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-02-28T10:00:33.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-02-28T18:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1589 | <p>The question will be suspended on 11 April 2020 and the outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 12 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 13 April under "Positive" (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily" target="_blank">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 305,755 total cases through 4 April 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 12 April 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.295Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3783, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 500,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:35:19.904Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:22.969Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.325Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3784, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:35:13.574Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:23.182Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.348Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3785, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 600,000 but less than 700,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:35:07.362Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:23.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.371Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3786, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:35:00.477Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:23.886Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.396Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3787, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 800,000 but less than 900,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:34:54.222Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:24.068Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.420Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3788, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 900,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:34:31.545Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:24.307Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.443Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3789, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:34:25.247Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:24.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.465Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3790, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:34:38.280Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:24.739Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-04-12T17:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-05T20:23:08.489Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3791, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1,200,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 217, "predictions_count": 551, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1589, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:34:48.136Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:25.018Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 582, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-07T07:23:14.783Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "29%", "description": "<p>The question will be suspended on 11 April 2020 and the outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 12 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 13 April under \"Positive\" (<a href=\"https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily\" target=\"_blank\">The COVID Tracking Project</a>). The COVID Tracking Project reported 305,755 total cases through 4 April 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 12 April 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-04-12T18:59:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1589, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:23:22.730+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:20.686+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T15:23:37.384+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T14:51:42.219+00:00"}, "name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 551, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 217, "published_at": "2020-04-05T20:24:52.534Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-04-13T22:35:19.918Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-04-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-05T13:30:24.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-05T20:30:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.115Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798 |
<p>As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (<a href="https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php" target="_blank">LMTonline</a>, <a href="https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/" target="_blank">Real Estate Weekly</a>, <a href="https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/" target="_blank">Commercial Property Executive</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than 2.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T18:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-02T14:12:29.474Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4464, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 2.00%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 291, "predictions_count": 904, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1798, "question_name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:34.466Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:34.467Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T18:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-02T14:12:29.502Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4465, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 291, "predictions_count": 904, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1798, "question_name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:40.983Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:40.984Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T18:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-02T14:12:29.524Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4466, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 291, "predictions_count": 904, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1798, "question_name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:47.398Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:47.399Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T18:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-02T14:12:29.546Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4467, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 291, "predictions_count": 904, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1798, "question_name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:19:00.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-24T20:19:00.174Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-07-01T18:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-02T14:12:29.568Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4468, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 291, "predictions_count": 904, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1798, "question_name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:53.692Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-24T20:18:53.693Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 930, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-12T04:34:16.627Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 81, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "70%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (<a href=\"https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php\" target=\"_blank\">LMTonline</a>, <a href=\"https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/\" target=\"_blank\">Real Estate Weekly</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/\" target=\"_blank\">Commercial Property Executive</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than 2.00%\" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-07-01T07:01:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1798, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:35:14.233+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:25.542+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:03:57.848+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:01:27.930+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 904, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 291, "published_at": "2020-10-02T16:52:56.794Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-24T20:19:00.185Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-10-02T10:00:47.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-10-02T17:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.186Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1802 |
<p>As of 6 October 2020, PHAC reported 171,323 confirmed cases for Canada (<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html" target="_blank">PHAC</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC "as of" 31 December 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch.
</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "428,308 or more cases" with a closing date of 8 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-08T23:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-07T23:07:08.992Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4479, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 256,985", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 613, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1802, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:16.058Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:16.099Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-08T23:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-07T23:07:09.017Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4480, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 256,985 and 342,646 cases, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 613, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1802, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:30.331Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:30.384Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-08T23:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-07T23:07:09.039Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4481, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 342,646 but fewer than 428,308 cases", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 613, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1802, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:43.660Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:43.676Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-08T23:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2020-10-07T23:07:09.061Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4482, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "428,308 or more cases", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 133, "predictions_count": 613, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1802, "question_name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-09T14:05:59.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-09T14:05:59.930Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 626, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-11-10T20:08:24.257Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 28, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "54%", "description": "\r\n <p>As of 6 October 2020, PHAC reported 171,323 confirmed cases for Canada (<a href=\"https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html\" target=\"_blank\">PHAC</a>). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC \"as of\" 31 December 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch.\r\n \r\n </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"428,308 or more cases\" with a closing date of 8 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T08:01:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1802, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:33:35.432+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:32:32.607+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:51:38.922+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:42:30.609+00:00"}, "name": "How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 613, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 133, "published_at": "2020-10-08T10:37:56.925Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-09T14:06:43.706Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-10-08T03:37:56.925-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-10-08T10:37:17.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2427 |
<p>As the ECB moves to change course on monetary policy, government bond yields in southern Europe have jumped (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italian-bond-yields-dive-and-euro-climbs-as-ecb-announces-emergency-meeting-on-market-conditions-11655276116" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/germanys-lindner-no-need-for-concern-over-higher-yields-in-euro-zone.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using "Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread" data as reported by YCharts for 16 December 2022 (<a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/italygermany_10_year_bond_spread" target="_blank">YCharts</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive" with a closing date of 16 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.220Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6662, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 1.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:23.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:23.174Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6663, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1.00% and 1.50%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:26.680Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:26.680Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.237Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6664, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 1.50% but less than 2.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:18.453Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:18.453Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6665, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:28.288Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:28.289Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.253Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6666, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:24.827Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:24.827Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.260Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6667, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 3.00% and 3.50%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:20.010Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:20.011Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-16T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-24T13:57:47.268Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6668, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3.50%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 24, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2427, "question_name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:21.593Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:21.594Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 258, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-12-13T22:22:05.735Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "\r\n <p>As the ECB moves to change course on monetary policy, government bond yields in southern Europe have jumped (<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italian-bond-yields-dive-and-euro-climbs-as-ecb-announces-emergency-meeting-on-market-conditions-11655276116\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/germanys-lindner-no-need-for-concern-over-higher-yields-in-euro-zone.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using \"Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread\" data as reported by YCharts for 16 December 2022 (<a href=\"https://ycharts.com/indicators/italygermany_10_year_bond_spread\" target=\"_blank\">YCharts</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 16 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-16T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2427, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T14:02:14.110+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T14:02:05.645+00:00"}, "name": "What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 253, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 24, "published_at": "2022-06-24T15:17:34.558Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-21T16:00:28.297Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-16T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-24T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2911 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its October/November meeting is scheduled for 31 October - 1 November 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-01T21:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:26:24.798Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8633, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 272, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2911, "question_name": "At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:30.996Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:30.997Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-01T21:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:26:24.806Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8634, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 272, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2911, "question_name": "At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:27.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:27.885Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-01T21:00:40.000Z", "created_at": "2023-06-16T13:26:24.814Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8635, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 272, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2911, "question_name": "At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:29.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:29.447Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 274, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-06-16T17:17:06.413Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its October/November meeting is scheduled for 31 October - 1 November 2023.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2911, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 272, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2023-06-16T16:24:39.237Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-01T21:46:31.008Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-06-16T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-06-16T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-04T19:53:32.490Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3111 | <p>The 2024 US presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024 (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-election-stand-year/story?id=104619961" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 5 September 2024 and the outcome determined using RCP Average chart data as reported by RealClearPolitics in a two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees for the date of 6 September 2024 when first available (e.g., 2020 <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html" target="_blank">RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Example</a>, hover cursor over chart for date and data). If RealClearPolitics does not aggregate polls for a two-way race, the outcome will be determined using data as aggregated for the fewest number of candidates, and the polling for any other candidates will be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T16:15:08.066Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9502, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by more than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.1154, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.1154, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3111, "question_name": "In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:40:03.061Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T16:15:08.075Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "34%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9503, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.3438, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.3438, "probability_formatted": "34%", "question_id": 3111, "question_name": "In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:40:03.056Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T16:15:08.083Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "43%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9504, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by more than 0.0% but less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.4257, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.4257, "probability_formatted": "43%", "question_id": 3111, "question_name": "In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:40:03.045Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-13T16:15:08.090Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9505, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by 5.0% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.1151, "positions_count": 301, "predictions_count": 379, "probability": 0.1151, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3111, "question_name": "In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:40:03.051Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 386, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The 2024 US presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024 (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-election-stand-year/story?id=104619961\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). The question will be suspended on 5 September 2024 and the outcome determined using RCP Average chart data as reported by RealClearPolitics in a two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees for the date of 6 September 2024 when first available (e.g., 2020 <a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html\" target=\"_blank\">RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Example</a>, hover cursor over chart for date and data). If RealClearPolitics does not aggregate polls for a two-way race, the outcome will be determined using data as aggregated for the fewest number of candidates, and the polling for any other candidates will be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-09-06T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3111, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 379, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 301, "published_at": "2023-11-13T16:15:08.152Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-13T08:15:08.152-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-13T00:38:23.472Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2111 |
<p>With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/uae-to-resume-issuing-tourist-visas-to-fully-vaccinated-travellers-from-monday/articleshow/85735979.cms" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/uae-oman-land-borders-open-tomorrow-covid-pcr-testing-rules-explained" target="_blank">Khaleej Times</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-arab-emirates" target="_blank">Our World in Data - UAE</a>, see "Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-21T03:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-31T18:44:08.721Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5480, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2111, "question_name": "What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:13.196Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:13.202Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-21T03:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-31T18:44:08.744Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5481, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2111, "question_name": "What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:14.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:14.476Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-21T03:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2021-08-31T18:44:08.760Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5482, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Neither will occur before 12 November 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 58, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2111, "question_name": "What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:15.836Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:15.841Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 191, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-09-09T12:27:34.970Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "45%", "description": "\r\n <p>With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (<a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/uae-to-resume-issuing-tourist-visas-to-fully-vaccinated-travellers-from-monday/articleshow/85735979.cms\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>, <a href=\"https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/uae-oman-land-borders-open-tomorrow-covid-pcr-testing-rules-explained\" target=\"_blank\">Khaleej Times</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (<a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-arab-emirates\" target=\"_blank\">Our World in Data - UAE</a>, see \"Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases\" chart).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower\" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-11-12T08:01:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2111, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:44:13.175+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:56.815+00:00"}, "name": "What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 162, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 58, "published_at": "2021-08-31T18:44:08.852Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-21T20:48:15.852Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-20T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-08-31T12:00:23.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-08-31T19:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2032 |
<p>A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/retail-sales-april-2021.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.retailwire.com/discussion/will-closing-stores-on-thanksgiving-become-the-new-retail-tradition/" target="_blank">RetailWire</a>). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (<a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html" target="_blank">Census.gov</a>). To retrieve the data, under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," (5) select "U.S. Total," and leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher by 7.5% or more" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T13:13:29.706Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5239, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The same or lower for 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 300, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2032, "question_name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:12.756Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:12.757Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T13:13:29.737Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5240, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 300, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2032, "question_name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:20.663Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:20.664Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T13:13:29.762Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5241, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 300, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2032, "question_name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:18.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:18.814Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T13:13:29.788Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5242, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 300, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2032, "question_name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:17.030Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:17.030Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-01-01T15:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-11T13:13:29.813Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5243, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by 7.5% or more", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 66, "predictions_count": 300, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2032, "question_name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:14.922Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:14.923Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 300, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-11-01T04:26:32.987Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 62, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "70%", "description": "\r\n <p>A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/retail-sales-april-2021.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.retailwire.com/discussion/will-closing-stores-on-thanksgiving-become-the-new-retail-tradition/\" target=\"_blank\">RetailWire</a>). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Census.gov</a>). To retrieve the data, under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" (5) select \"U.S. Total,\" and leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher by 7.5% or more\" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-01-01T08:01:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2032, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:16.376+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:52.879+00:00"}, "name": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 300, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 66, "published_at": "2021-06-11T16:13:57.182Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-01-14T15:08:20.671Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-11T10:00:57.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-11T17:00:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1631 |
<p>In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve has begun unprecedented interventions in financial markets, including asset purchases (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4342493-federal-reserve-watch-balance-sheet-increased-2_5-trillion" target="_blank">Seeking Alpha</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/fed-world-largest-balance-sheet-e1383ee1-4df1-4ec6-bacd-99c70404d22f.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ec10b41a-84af-4e44-ad3f-5bb86b6e1eaa" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with "Zoom" set to "1 y" (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). <br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Less than $8 trillion" with a closing date of 30 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.294Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3942, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $8 trillion", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1631, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:05.677Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:05.678Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.313Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3943, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $8 trillion and $9 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1631, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:21.108Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:21.109Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.332Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3944, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $9 trillion but less than $10 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1631, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:26.435Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:26.436Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.351Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3945, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $10 trillion and $11 trillion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1631, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:32.271Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:32.272Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.370Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3946, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $11 trillion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 157, "predictions_count": 674, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1631, "question_name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:37.798Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:37.800Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 684, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-09-10T16:56:25.709Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 111, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "\r\n <p>In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve has begun unprecedented interventions in financial markets, including asset purchases (<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4342493-federal-reserve-watch-balance-sheet-increased-2_5-trillion\" target=\"_blank\">Seeking Alpha</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/fed-world-largest-balance-sheet-e1383ee1-4df1-4ec6-bacd-99c70404d22f.html\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ec10b41a-84af-4e44-ad3f-5bb86b6e1eaa\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with \"Zoom\" set to \"1 y\" (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). <br></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Less than $8 trillion\" with a closing date of 30 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-12-30T08:01:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1631, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:10.296+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:24:18.391+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T04:18:43.391+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T04:02:34.458+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 674, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 157, "published_at": "2020-05-21T19:59:35.453Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-01-04T17:26:37.809Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-05-21T13:00:26.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-05-21T20:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.140Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1992 |
<p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-border-after-buildup-alarmed-west-n1264912" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.unian.info/politics/diplomacy-zelensky-putin-meeting-may-take-place-in-jerusalem-or-vienna-11405683.html" target="_blank">Unian</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-04-26/ukrainian-president-upbeat-on-chances-of-putin-meeting-and-new-ceasefire" target="_blank">US News</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:51:30.596Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5064, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1992, "question_name": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-02T15:42:49.343Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-02T15:42:49.345Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:51:30.626Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5065, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1992, "question_name": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-02T15:45:43.329Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-02T15:45:43.331Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-04-30T14:51:30.655Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5066, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 113, "predictions_count": 297, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1992, "question_name": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-02T15:48:40.065Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-02T15:48:40.068Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 311, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-04-30T18:33:38.463Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 93, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-border-after-buildup-alarmed-west-n1264912\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.unian.info/politics/diplomacy-zelensky-putin-meeting-may-take-place-in-jerusalem-or-vienna-11405683.html\" target=\"_blank\">Unian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-04-26/ukrainian-president-upbeat-on-chances-of-putin-meeting-and-new-ceasefire\" target=\"_blank\">US News</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-08-01T07:01:06.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1992, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:08.463+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:30.375+00:00"}, "name": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 297, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 113, "published_at": "2021-04-30T16:44:57.142Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-02T15:48:40.330Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-04-30T10:00:06.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-04-30T17:00:06.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2254 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher" with a closing date of 15 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T15:49:31.755Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6002, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2254, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:20.237Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:20.238Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T15:49:31.781Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6003, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2254, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:23.019Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:23.020Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2022-01-28T15:49:31.801Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6004, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 127, "predictions_count": 385, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2254, "question_name": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:26.115Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:26.117Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 393, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-01-28T19:24:52.492Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher\" with a closing date of 15 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-15T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2254, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 385, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 127, "published_at": "2022-01-28T15:49:31.889Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-15T22:08:26.126Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-15T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-01-28T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-01-28T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-23T17:03:13.586Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1742 |
<p>On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2020 will be used to assess its value in dollars (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB" target="_blank">Bloomberg (ARAMCO)</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg (USD/SAR)</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Yes, the most valuable in the world" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:04:26.487Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4285, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 874, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1742, "question_name": "At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:43.570Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:43.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:04:26.514Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4286, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 874, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1742, "question_name": "At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:28.838Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:28.839Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-12-31T21:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-08-14T13:04:26.539Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4287, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 874, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1742, "question_name": "At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:36.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:36.016Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 887, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-08-14T17:16:38.124Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 139, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2020 will be used to assess its value in dollars (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg (ARAMCO)</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg (USD/SAR)</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Yes, the most valuable in the world\" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-12-31T08:01:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "flash_html": "<div id=\"flash-container\" class=\"\">\n <div id=\"flash-container-bg\"> </div>\n <div class=\"flash alert alert-warning\">\n <a class=\"close\" href=\"#\">\u00d7</a>\n <div class=\"flash-message\">You need to sign in or sign up before continuing.</div>\n </div>\n\n <script>\n FOF.persistent_flash = false;\n </script>\n</div>\n", "id": 1742, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:31:38.431+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:30:05.979+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T03:55:32.843+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T03:45:51.011+00:00"}, "name": "At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 874, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 283, "published_at": "2020-08-14T16:55:39.570Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-12-31T22:40:43.583Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-08-14T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-08-14T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2167 |
<p>Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/30/us-auto-sales-forecast-to-plummet-in-third-quarter-as-chip-shortage-plagues-industry.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37823495/auto-dealers-low-inventory-profits/" target="_blank">Car and Driver</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA" target="_blank">FRED</a>). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:43:35.787Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5671, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 593, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2167, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:42.285Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:42.285Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:43:35.820Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5672, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 593, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2167, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:52.689Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:52.690Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:43:35.836Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5673, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 593, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2167, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:56.292Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:56.293Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:43:35.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5674, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 593, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2167, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:49.235Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:49.236Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-06-01T14:00:01.000Z", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:43:35.867Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5675, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 700.0 (thousands)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 151, "predictions_count": 593, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2167, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:45.779Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:45.780Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 640, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-12-30T11:39:35.533Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 153, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "31%", "description": "\r\n <p>Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/30/us-auto-sales-forecast-to-plummet-in-third-quarter-as-chip-shortage-plagues-industry.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37823495/auto-dealers-low-inventory-profits/\" target=\"_blank\">Car and Driver</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)\" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-06-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2167, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 593, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 151, "published_at": "2021-10-22T15:47:12.264Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-06-30T14:27:56.300Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-10-22T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-10-22T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2890 |
<p>While China ended its "zero COVID" policies around the beginning of the year, its economy is still dealing with challenges (<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-nomura-has-lopped-its-2023-china-gdp-forecast-to-55-from-59-losing-steam-20230517/" target="_blank">Forexlive</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-economy-risks-stall-china-151017098.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/investing/china-stock-market-decline-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in October 2023 (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 May 2023</span>: This question mistakenly asked about the second quarter. This question is concerned with the third quarter of 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-19T14:38:04.890Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8547, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by less than 3.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2890, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:14.019Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:14.019Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-19T14:38:04.899Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8548, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2890, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:13.190Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:13.191Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-19T14:38:04.906Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8549, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2890, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:10.820Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:10.820Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-19T14:38:04.913Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8550, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2890, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:11.618Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:11.619Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-10-01T14:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2023-05-19T14:38:04.920Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8551, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher by more than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 27, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2890, "question_name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:12.383Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:12.384Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 107, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>While China ended its \"zero COVID\" policies around the beginning of the year, its economy is still dealing with challenges (<a href=\"https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-nomura-has-lopped-its-2023-china-gdp-forecast-to-55-from-59-losing-steam-20230517/\" target=\"_blank\">Forexlive</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-economy-risks-stall-china-151017098.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/investing/china-stock-market-decline-intl-hnk/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in October 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);\">NOTE 19 May 2023</span>: This question mistakenly asked about the second quarter. This question is concerned with the third quarter of 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%\" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-10-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2890, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 107, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 27, "published_at": "2023-05-19T14:58:36.376Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T13:28:14.027Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-05-19T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-05-19T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3080 |
<p>A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-milei-massa-vote-bullrich-cead0d423f2e51444b48770af618940b" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67190494" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (<a href="https://www.argentina.gob.ar/normativa/nacional/ley-19945-19442/actualizacion" target="_blank">Argentina.gob.ar</a>, see Article 61).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Javier Milei" with a closing date of 19 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T23:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-24T19:52:31.020Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9372, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Sergio Massa", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 139, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3080, "question_name": "Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-20T00:05:00.554Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-20T00:05:00.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-19T23:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2023-10-24T19:52:31.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9373, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Javier Milei", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 139, "predictions_count": 353, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3080, "question_name": "Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-20T00:04:58.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-20T00:04:58.060Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 362, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-16T14:01:37.849Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "88%", "description": "\r\n <p>A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-milei-massa-vote-bullrich-cead0d423f2e51444b48770af618940b\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67190494\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (<a href=\"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/normativa/nacional/ley-19945-19442/actualizacion\" target=\"_blank\">Argentina.gob.ar</a>, see Article 61).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Javier Milei\" with a closing date of 19 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-19T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3080, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 353, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 139, "published_at": "2023-10-24T20:29:20.719Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-20T00:05:00.564Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-10-25T02:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-10-25T09:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.803Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1585 |
<p>In March, Alabama held the first round of its Republican primary for the race to fill a vacant seat this November (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sessions-likely-headed-runoff-alabama-gop-senate-race-roy-moore-n1148956" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). However, the runoff between former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville was postponed until July due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/18/alabama-senate-runoff-postponed-coronavirus-135557" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Tommy Tuberville" with a closing date of 14 July 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-14T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T21:11:48.361Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3764, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Jeff Sessions", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 194, "predictions_count": 450, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1585, "question_name": "Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-15T13:10:13.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:20.145Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-14T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T21:11:48.399Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3765, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tommy Tuberville", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 194, "predictions_count": 450, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1585, "question_name": "Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-15T13:09:58.640Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:20.260Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-07-14T23:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2020-04-02T21:11:48.439Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3766, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 194, "predictions_count": 450, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1585, "question_name": "Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-15T13:09:49.301Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:20.383Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 452, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-04-03T17:17:37.366Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 101, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>In March, Alabama held the first round of its Republican primary for the race to fill a vacant seat this November (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sessions-likely-headed-runoff-alabama-gop-senate-race-roy-moore-n1148956\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>). However, the runoff between former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville was postponed until July due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/18/alabama-senate-runoff-postponed-coronavirus-135557\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>).</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Tommy Tuberville\" with a closing date of 14 July 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-07-14T06:59:52.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1585, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:21:50.550+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:20:58.151+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:15:32.946+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T23:07:42.527+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 450, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 194, "published_at": "2020-04-03T16:56:08.683Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-07-15T13:10:13.887Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-07-13T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-04-03T10:00:52.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-04-03T17:00:52.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3103 | <p>FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven federal criminal counts in his 2023 trial in New York (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/sam-bankman-fried-sentence-could-be-100-plus-years-or-mere-decades.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bankman-frieds-sentencing-113043329.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/bankman-frieds-pre-trial-antics-haunt-him-before-sentencing-1" target="_blank">Bloomberg Law</a>). Bankman-Fried's sentencing was scheduled for 28 March 2024 as of the launch of this question (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/02/sam-bankman-fried-guilty-on-all-7-counts-in-ftx-fraud-trial/" target="_blank">CoinDesk</a>). Whether Bankman-Fried is credited for time served, sentenced to supervision following release, or appeals either his conviction or sentence is immaterial, and one year equates to 12 months irrespective of what month the sentence would begin or end.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:36:46.691Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9458, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 10 years", "normalized_probability": 0.05, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 96, "probability": 0.05, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 3103, "question_name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T08:09:01.243Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:36:46.701Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "34%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9459, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10 years and 20 years, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.34, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 96, "probability": 0.34, "probability_formatted": "34%", "question_id": 3103, "question_name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T08:09:01.249Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:36:46.711Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "36%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9460, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 20 years but less than 30 years", "normalized_probability": 0.36, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 96, "probability": 0.36, "probability_formatted": "36%", "question_id": 3103, "question_name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T08:09:01.271Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:36:46.720Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "23%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9461, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "30 years or more", "normalized_probability": 0.23, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 96, "probability": 0.23, "probability_formatted": "23%", "question_id": 3103, "question_name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T08:09:01.266Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:36:46.729Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "2%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9462, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No sentencing will occur before 1 October 2024", "normalized_probability": 0.02, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 96, "probability": 0.02, "probability_formatted": "2%", "question_id": 3103, "question_name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T08:09:01.254Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 97, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven federal criminal counts in his 2023 trial in New York (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/sam-bankman-fried-sentence-could-be-100-plus-years-or-mere-decades.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bankman-frieds-sentencing-113043329.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>, <a href=\"https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/bankman-frieds-pre-trial-antics-haunt-him-before-sentencing-1\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg Law</a>). Bankman-Fried's sentencing was scheduled for 28 March 2024 as of the launch of this question (<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/02/sam-bankman-fried-guilty-on-all-7-counts-in-ftx-fraud-trial/\" target=\"_blank\">CoinDesk</a>). Whether Bankman-Fried is credited for time served, sentenced to supervision following release, or appeals either his conviction or sentence is immaterial, and one year equates to 12 months irrespective of what month the sentence would begin or end.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-10-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3103, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "For how long will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to serve in prison for his November 2023 federal criminal convictions?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 97, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2023-11-10T15:27:44.946Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-10T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-10T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T20:49:51.571Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2627 |
<p>Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (<a href="https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/older-adults-lost-more-money-impersonation-investment-scams-2021-than-2020-per-report/27U62ESHMVGSLIB74JSWMPPQWM/" target="_blank">WSB-TV</a>). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2021-2022-report-federal-trade-commission" target="_blank">FTC - Press Release</a>). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Romance Scams totaled $213 million in 2021 (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/P144400OlderConsumersReportFY22.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022</a>, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (<a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2017-2018-report-congress-federal-trade-commission/protecting_older_consumers_-_ftc_report_10-18-18.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2018-2019-report-federal-trade-commission/p144401_protecting_older_consumers_2019_1.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2019-2020-report-federal-trade-commission/p144400_protecting_older_adults_report_2020.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020</a>, <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2020-2021-report-federal-trade-commission/protecting-older-consumers-report-508.pdf" target="_blank">Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021</a>).</p><p><i><a href="https://www.safe-seniors.org/" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE)</a> is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. <a href="https://twitter.com/SafeSeniorsOrg" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Click here</a> to follow them on Twitter.</i></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-17T23:10:10.952Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7456, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $213 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2627, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:22.268Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:22.270Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-17T23:10:10.968Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7457, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2627, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:17.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:17.571Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-17T23:10:10.976Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7458, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $270 million but less than $328 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2627, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:20.727Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:20.728Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-11T15:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2022-11-17T23:10:10.984Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7459, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$328 million or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 107, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2627, "question_name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:19.207Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:19.208Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 107, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-11-18T21:49:55.741Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 85, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n <p>Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (<a href=\"https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/older-adults-lost-more-money-impersonation-investment-scams-2021-than-2020-per-report/27U62ESHMVGSLIB74JSWMPPQWM/\" target=\"_blank\">WSB-TV</a>). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2021-2022-report-federal-trade-commission\" target=\"_blank\">FTC - Press Release</a>). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Romance Scams totaled $213 million in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/P144400OlderConsumersReportFY22.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022</a>, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2017-2018-report-congress-federal-trade-commission/protecting_older_consumers_-_ftc_report_10-18-18.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2018-2019-report-federal-trade-commission/p144401_protecting_older_consumers_2019_1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2019-2020-report-federal-trade-commission/p144400_protecting_older_adults_report_2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/protecting-older-consumers-2020-2021-report-federal-trade-commission/protecting-older-consumers-report-508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021</a>).</p><p><i><a href=\"https://www.safe-seniors.org/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE)</a> is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. <a href=\"https://twitter.com/SafeSeniorsOrg\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">Click here</a> to follow them on Twitter.</i></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 11 February 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-02-11T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2627, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 107, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 42, "published_at": "2022-11-18T15:44:18.531Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-10-18T19:27:22.291Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-11-18T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-11-18T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2794 |
<p>Sanctions on Russian oil, potential increases in Chinese demand, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (<a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/goldman-sees-oil-supplies-tightening-more-opec-supply-in-june" target="_blank">NASDAQ</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/oil-gains-on-russian-supply-cut-worries-higher-us-inventories-weigh.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/25/energy/us-gas-prices-one-year-after-invasion/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.130Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8042, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $55.00 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:00.673Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:00.674Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.139Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8043, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $55.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:05:57.817Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:05:57.818Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.147Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8044, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:03.401Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:03.402Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.155Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8045, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $85.00 and $100.00 per barrel, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:06.116Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:06.117Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.162Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8046, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $100.00 but less than $115.00 per barrel", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:08.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:08.893Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-19T22:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.169Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8047, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "$115.00 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 403, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2794, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:11.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:11.976Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 408, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-15T21:54:52.276Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 64, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>Sanctions on Russian oil, potential increases in Chinese demand, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/goldman-sees-oil-supplies-tightening-more-opec-supply-in-june\" target=\"_blank\">NASDAQ</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/oil-gains-on-russian-supply-cut-worries-higher-us-inventories-weigh.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/25/energy/us-gas-prices-one-year-after-invasion/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel\" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-18T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2794, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 403, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 92, "published_at": "2023-03-14T20:31:37.238Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-24T20:06:11.983Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-18T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-15T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-15T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967 |
<p>Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (<a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/" target="_blank">NBC New York</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Eric Adams" with a closing date of 22 June 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-23T01:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-19T13:55:39.726Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4968, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Eric Adams", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1967, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:48:55.522Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T17:48:55.524Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-23T01:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-19T13:55:39.759Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4969, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Scott Stringer", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1967, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:49:18.645Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T17:49:18.647Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-23T01:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-19T13:55:39.786Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4970, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Maya Wiley", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1967, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:49:42.427Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T17:49:42.434Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-23T01:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-19T13:55:39.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4971, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Andrew Yang", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1967, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:50:00.927Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T17:50:00.929Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-23T01:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2021-03-19T13:55:39.937Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4972, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 150, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1967, "question_name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:50:16.874Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-07-07T17:50:16.876Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 737, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-06-06T21:28:49.979Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "83%", "description": "\r\n <p>Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/\" target=\"_blank\">NBC New York</a>, <a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021)\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight</a>).</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Eric Adams\" with a closing date of 22 June 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-06-22T07:01:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1967, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:49.693+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:39:02.149+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 728, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 150, "published_at": "2021-03-19T16:44:16.316Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-07-07T17:50:16.912Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-06-22T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-03-19T10:00:34.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-03-19T17:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T21:55:05.794Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3104 | <p>Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/10/13/1205627092/american-support-israel-biden-middle-east-hamas-poll" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup - 16 March 2023</a>). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (<a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1639/middle-east.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup - Middle East</a>). The "net sympathy" will be calculated by subtracting the "more sympathetic" percentage for Palestinians from the "more sympathetic" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, "more sympathies" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a "net sympathy" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?" to which 54% responded "Israelis" in 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:45:34.622Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "19%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9463, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 10 points or negative", "normalized_probability": 0.1869, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.1869, "probability_formatted": "19%", "question_id": 3104, "question_name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:25.606Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:45:34.630Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "41%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9464, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points", "normalized_probability": 0.4116, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.4116, "probability_formatted": "41%", "question_id": 3104, "question_name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:25.592Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:45:34.637Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "33%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9465, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points", "normalized_probability": 0.3266, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.3266, "probability_formatted": "33%", "question_id": 3104, "question_name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:25.586Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:45:34.644Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "6%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9466, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points", "normalized_probability": 0.0634, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0634, "probability_formatted": "6%", "question_id": 3104, "question_name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:25.599Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-09T22:45:34.651Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9467, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "40 points for more", "normalized_probability": 0.0116, "positions_count": 79, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0116, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3104, "question_name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:25.576Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 186, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/13/1205627092/american-support-israel-biden-middle-east-hamas-poll\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Gallup - 16 March 2023</a>). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (<a href=\"https://news.gallup.com/poll/1639/middle-east.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Gallup - Middle East</a>). The \"net sympathy\" will be calculated by subtracting the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Palestinians from the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, \"more sympathies\" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a \"net sympathy\" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, \"In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?\" to which 54% responded \"Israelis\" in 2023.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-02-07T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3104, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 184, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 79, "published_at": "2023-11-10T15:27:47.916Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-10T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-10T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T22:28:27.927Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2968 |
<p>As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/18/trump-5-rivals-qualify-for-first-gop-debate-00106826" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trumps-rivals-let-gop-voters-believe-winner-coming-back-bite-rcna96980" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/trump-desantis-and-other-2024-gop-candidates-set-to-address-iowa-republicans-at-lincoln-day-dinner/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank">RealClearPolitics</a>, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023" with a closing date of 4 November 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.193Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8876, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Nikki Haley", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:54:05.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:54:05.572Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.201Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8877, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Mike Pence", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:55.655Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:55.656Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.209Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8878, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:54:02.131Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:54:02.132Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.217Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8879, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Tim Scott", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:52.722Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:52.723Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.224Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8880, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:58.869Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:58.869Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-11-04T14:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2023-08-04T13:50:53.232Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8881, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 78, "predictions_count": 527, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2968, "question_name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:49.549Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-07T14:53:49.551Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 573, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-08-31T15:24:48.740Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 65, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "29%", "description": "\r\n <p>As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/18/trump-5-rivals-qualify-for-first-gop-debate-00106826\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trumps-rivals-let-gop-voters-believe-winner-coming-back-bite-rcna96980\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/trump-desantis-and-other-2024-gop-candidates-set-to-address-iowa-republicans-at-lincoln-day-dinner/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (<a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html\" target=\"_blank\">RealClearPolitics</a>, set to \"3M\"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023\" with a closing date of 4 November 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-11-04T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2968, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 527, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 78, "published_at": "2023-08-04T16:00:24.517Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-11-07T14:54:05.580Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-11-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-04T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-04T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-07T18:37:33.961Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2336 |
<p>The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (<a href="https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html" target="_blank">Slate</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (<a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">FAO</a>, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6230, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 125.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:12:46.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:12:46.449Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.964Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6231, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:19.290Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:19.291Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.972Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6232, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 135.0 but less than 145.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:28.958Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:28.959Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6233, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:14:16.099Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:14:16.099Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.988Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6234, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 155.0 but less than 165.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:14:04.965Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:14:04.965Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:00.996Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6235, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:41.429Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:41.430Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:01.004Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6236, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 175.0 but less than 185.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:53.165Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:53.166Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:01.013Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6237, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:12:58.376Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:12:58.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-02-01T15:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-01T14:13:01.022Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6238, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 195.0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 70, "predictions_count": 481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2336, "question_name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:09.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-02-03T18:13:09.390Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 493, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-01-09T14:01:00.985Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 23, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "92%", "description": "\r\n <p>The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (<a href=\"https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html\" target=\"_blank\">Slate</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (<a href=\"http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/\" target=\"_blank\">FAO</a>, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-02-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2336, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T14:02:36.189+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T14:02:05.647+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 481, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 70, "published_at": "2022-04-01T16:28:53.899Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-02-03T18:14:16.134Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2246 |
<p>
This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences. You can also share any models or procedures that you think might be useful to others. It is also a space where you can pose questions to other forecasters regarding how they approach their questions.</p>
<div>This is not a forum for talking about any one forecasting question or group of questions as such.</div>
<br>
<div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. For training material on forecasting endorsed by GJ, please see our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/training" target="_blank">Free Training Materials</a>, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/resources/online-training/" target="_blank">Online Training</a>, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/resources/upcoming-workshops/" target="_blank">Workshops</a>, and the book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/" target="_blank">Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction</a>.</div>
<br>
<div>(This thread is the successor to the previous tips thread, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters" target="_blank">#1779</a>)</div><div><br></div><div style="text-align:center;"><b><span style="font-size:18px;"><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2747-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2023-thread" target="_blank">CURRENT TIPS AND TRICKS THREAD (#2747)</a></span></b></div>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": {}, "answers_count": 0, "binary?": false, "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 192, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>\r\n This is a forum for GJO forecasters interested in sharing forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences. You can also share any models or procedures that you think might be useful to others. It is also a space where you can pose questions to other forecasters regarding how they approach their questions.</p>\r\n\r\n<div>This is not a forum for talking about any one forecasting question or group of questions as such.</div>\r\n<br>\r\n<div>The content in this discussion forum is only user-generated. For training material on forecasting endorsed by GJ, please see our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/training\" target=\"_blank\">Free Training Materials</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/resources/online-training/\" target=\"_blank\">Online Training</a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/resources/upcoming-workshops/\" target=\"_blank\">Workshops</a>, and the book\u00a0<a href=\"https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/\" target=\"_blank\">Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction</a>.</div>\r\n<br>\r\n\r\n<div>(This thread is the successor to the previous tips thread, <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters\" target=\"_blank\">#1779</a>)</div><div><br></div><div style=\"text-align:center;\"><b><span style=\"font-size:18px;\"><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2747-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2023-thread\" target=\"_blank\">CURRENT TIPS AND TRICKS THREAD\u00a0(#2747)</a></span></b></div>\r\n \r\n ", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2246, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:22.000+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:19:21.683+00:00"}, "name": "[Old 2022 Thread] Are there any forecasting tips, tricks, and experiences you would like to share and/or discuss with your fellow forecasters? [Old 2022 Thread]", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 0, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 0, "published_at": "2022-01-18T23:40:56.505Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-01-18T15:40:56.505-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-01-18T23:30:00.000Z", "state": "pending_resolution", "type": "Forecast::DiscussionQuestion", "updated_at": "2024-01-01T14:00:13.538Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2377 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 16 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Billboard for the "Week of May 21, 2022," expected on Tuesday 17 May 2022 (<a href="https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/" target="_blank">Billboard</a>). "Ranking highest" means ranking highest among the five songs and does not necessarily mean ranking first overall.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "First Class, Jack Harlow" with a closing date of 17 May 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-17T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.059Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6420, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "As It Was, Harry Styles", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2377, "question_name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:35.232Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:35.232Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-17T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.068Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6421, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Enemy, Imagine Dragons X JID", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2377, "question_name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:35.830Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:35.831Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-17T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.077Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6422, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "First Class, Jack Harlow", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2377, "question_name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:36.427Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:36.427Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-17T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.086Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6423, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Heat Waves, Glass Animals", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2377, "question_name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:34.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:34.016Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-05-17T14:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.095Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6424, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Stay, The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 45, "predictions_count": 75, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2377, "question_name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:34.622Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:34.622Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 87, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 16 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Billboard for the \"Week of May 21, 2022,\" expected on Tuesday 17 May 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/\" target=\"_blank\">Billboard</a>). \"Ranking highest\" means ranking highest among the five songs and does not necessarily mean ranking first overall.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"First Class, Jack Harlow\" with a closing date of 17 May 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2022-05-17T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2377, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 75, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 45, "published_at": "2022-04-29T20:07:34.158Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-05-17T14:18:36.434Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-05-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-04-29T13:15:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-04-29T20:15:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2798 |
<p>"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is the third movie in the franchise (<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6791350/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the total of non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 5-29 May 2023 (<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2977202945/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>, see "Domestic Daily"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 5 May 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.192Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8066, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $200 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:04.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:04.867Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.200Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8067, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $200 million and $240 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:07.688Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:07.689Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.208Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8068, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $240 million but less than $280 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:09.008Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:09.009Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.215Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8069, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:11.899Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:11.899Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.222Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8070, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $320 million but less than $360 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:03.489Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:03.490Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.229Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8071, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $360 million and $400 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:10.481Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:10.481Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-30T14:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.236Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8072, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $400 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 67, "predictions_count": 235, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2798, "question_name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:06.169Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:06.170Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 253, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-05-08T10:48:43.449Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 20, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "73%", "description": "\r\n <p>\"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" is the third movie in the franchise (<a href=\"https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6791350/\" target=\"_blank\">IMDb</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the total of non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 5-29 May 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2977202945/\" target=\"_blank\">Box Office Mojo</a>, see \"Domestic Daily\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 5 May 2023.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive\" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2023-05-28T23:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2798, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 235, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 67, "published_at": "2023-03-14T21:17:11.304Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-31T13:29:11.906Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-15T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-15T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3038 |
<p>Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (<a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/b187-sustaining-gains-somalias-offensive-against-al-shabaab" target="_blank">International Crisis Group</a>). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (<a href="https://acleddata.com/2023/06/02/somalia-situation-update-may-2023-al-shabaab-regains-lost-territories-as-a-dispute-over-tax-halts-counter-insurgency-operation/" target="_blank">ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (<a href="https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard" target="_blank">ACLED Dashboard</a>). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Somalia" under "Eastern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to "Battles," 108 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 269 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Fewer than 2,400" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:56.978Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9209, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 2,400", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:49.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:49.282Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:56.985Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9210, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:50.998Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:50.999Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:56.992Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9211, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:42.311Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:42.311Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:56.998Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9212, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:45.417Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:45.418Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:57.006Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9213, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:47.238Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:47.238Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2023-09-29T14:47:57.014Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 9214, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "5,600 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 19, "predictions_count": 66, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 3038, "question_name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:43.728Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:43.729Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 67, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-11-07T06:05:40.395Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 56, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "40%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (<a href=\"https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/b187-sustaining-gains-somalias-offensive-against-al-shabaab\" target=\"_blank\">International Crisis Group</a>). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (<a href=\"https://acleddata.com/2023/06/02/somalia-situation-update-may-2023-al-shabaab-regains-lost-territories-as-a-dispute-over-tax-halts-counter-insurgency-operation/\" target=\"_blank\">ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (<a href=\"https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard\" target=\"_blank\">ACLED Dashboard</a>). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Somalia\" under \"Eastern Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" Click \"EVENT COUNT\" above the chart and change the selection to \"FATALITIES.\" As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to \"Battles,\" 108 attributed to \"Violence against civilians,\" 269 attributed to \"Explosions/Remote violence,\" 3 attributed to \"Strategic developments,\" and none attributed to \"Riots\" or \"Protests\").</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Fewer than 2,400\" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3038, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 66, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 19, "published_at": "2023-09-29T15:51:12.588Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-11T18:13:51.013Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-09-29T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:15:34.768Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2533 |
<p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/" target="_blank">270 to Win</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-01T20:34:44.185Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7082, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2533, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-09T18:39:02.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-09T18:39:02.565Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-01T20:34:44.193Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7083, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2533, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-09T18:38:48.659Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-09T18:38:48.659Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-11-09T03:00:58.000Z", "created_at": "2022-09-01T20:34:44.200Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 7084, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 60, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2533, "question_name": "Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-09T18:38:30.149Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-11-09T18:38:30.150Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 191, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-09-02T18:21:25.825Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 67, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href=\"https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/\" target=\"_blank\">270 to Win</a>, <a href=\"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022\" target=\"_blank\">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-11-09T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2533, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District in 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 188, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 60, "published_at": "2022-09-01T20:43:20.414Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-11-09T18:39:02.603Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-09-02T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-09-02T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-06-22T15:21:17.509Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2957 |
<p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 12-13 December 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 13 December 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-13T22:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-28T14:05:30.850Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8836, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 243, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2957, "question_name": "At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:05.805Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:05.806Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-13T22:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-28T14:05:30.866Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8837, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Same", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 243, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2957, "question_name": "At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:04.215Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:04.216Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-12-13T22:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2023-07-28T14:05:30.873Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8838, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Higher", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 56, "predictions_count": 243, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2957, "question_name": "At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:07.530Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:07.530Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 244, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-07-28T17:23:10.247Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 138, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 12-13 December 2023.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Same\" with a closing date of 13 December 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-12-13T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2957, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 243, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 56, "published_at": "2023-07-28T14:31:44.788Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-12-13T22:51:07.537Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-12-13T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-07-28T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-07-28T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.657Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2977 | <p>The US "M2" money supply metric has been contracting as the Federal Reserve moves to tighten monetary policy (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-money-supply-fallen-does-190209835.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/02/01/inflation-will-continue-to-come-down-with-the-shrinking-money-supply-says-fmr-fed-gov-heller.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 23 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS" target="_blank">FRED</a>). As of 26 June 2023, the value of US M2 was $20,722.7 billion.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.817Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8927, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than $18,500.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 138, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-27T15:36:44.237Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.825Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8928, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $18,500.0 billion and $19,000.0 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 138, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-11-27T15:36:44.232Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.832Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8929, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $19,000.0 billion but less than $19,500.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.01, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.01, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:44.707Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.839Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "3%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8930, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $19,500.0 billion and $20,000.0 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.03, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.03, "probability_formatted": "3%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:44.693Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.846Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "17%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8931, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,500.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.17, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.17, "probability_formatted": "17%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:44.702Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.853Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "42%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8932, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between $20,500.0 billion and $21,000.0 billion, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.42, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.42, "probability_formatted": "42%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:44.698Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-08-11T14:51:53.860Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "37%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 8933, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than $21,000.0 billion", "normalized_probability": 0.37, "positions_count": 26, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.37, "probability_formatted": "37%", "question_id": 2977, "question_name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:44.711Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 139, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The US \"M2\" money supply metric has been contracting as the Federal Reserve moves to tighten monetary policy (<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-money-supply-fallen-does-190209835.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/02/01/inflation-will-continue-to-come-down-with-the-shrinking-money-supply-says-fmr-fed-gov-heller.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve</a>). The question will be suspended on 23 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). As of 26 June 2023, the value of US M2 was $20,722.7 billion.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-06-24T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2977, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 24 June 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 139, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 26, "published_at": "2023-08-11T16:01:12.976Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-08-11T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-08-11T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:11:47.353Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2413 |
<p>Increasing labor costs are a big part of the overall inflation story in the US (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/two-thirds-of-american-workers-say-pay-not-keeping-up-with-inflation.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/as-inflation-soars-workers-expect-bigger-raises.aspx" target="_blank">Society for Human Resource Management</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2022/06/06/inflations-complicated-endgame-00037325" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (<a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker" target="_blank">Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker</a>, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Hourly workers" under "12-month moving averages (unweighted, hourly)"). In April 2021, the 12-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 3.4%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.195Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6583, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Less than 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2413, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:12.168Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:12.168Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.206Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6584, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2413, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:15.802Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:15.803Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.214Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6585, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2413, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:17.308Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:17.309Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.222Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6586, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2413, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:13.369Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:13.370Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.231Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6587, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 8.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 42, "predictions_count": 219, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2413, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:14.572Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:14.572Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 221, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-04-12T12:59:29.382Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 19, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "94%", "description": "\r\n <p>Increasing labor costs are a big part of the overall inflation story in the US (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/two-thirds-of-american-workers-say-pay-not-keeping-up-with-inflation.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/as-inflation-soars-workers-expect-bigger-raises.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Society for Human Resource Management</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2022/06/06/inflations-complicated-endgame-00037325\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's \"Wage Growth Tracker\" (<a href=\"https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker</a>, with \"Interactive Chart\" selected, click \"Hourly workers\" under \"12-month moving averages (unweighted, hourly)\"). In April 2021, the 12-month moving average for \"Paid hourly\" was 3.4%.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2023-05-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2413, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:18:02.355+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:17:33.267+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 219, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 42, "published_at": "2022-06-10T15:46:18.297Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2023-05-11T21:47:17.316Z", "scoring_end_time": "2023-05-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-06-10T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-06-10T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.896Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2047 |
<p>Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf" target="_blank">Public Health England</a>, <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513" target="_blank">British Medical Journal</a>). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-11-june-2021" target="_blank">Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021</a>). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 29 July and 11 August 2021" with a closing date of 5 August 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-05T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-18T15:08:17.031Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5295, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "On or before 14 July 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 532, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2047, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T13:09:56.512Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T13:09:56.519Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-05T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-18T15:08:17.055Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5296, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 15 July and 28 July 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 532, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2047, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:06.498Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:06.506Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-05T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-18T15:08:17.077Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5297, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 29 July and 11 August 2021", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 532, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2047, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:15.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:15.629Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-08-05T14:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2021-06-18T15:08:17.100Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5298, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 12 August 2021", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 532, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2047, "question_name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:29.976Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:29.999Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 635, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-07-23T13:05:16.135Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "73%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Public Health England</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513\" target=\"_blank\">British Medical Journal</a>). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-11-june-2021\" target=\"_blank\">Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021</a>). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 29 July and 11 August 2021\" with a closing date of 5 August 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-08-12T07:01:55.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2047, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:43:32.974+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:42:19.873+00:00"}, "name": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 532, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 138, "published_at": "2021-06-18T17:07:30.575Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-08-06T13:10:30.057Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-08-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-06-18T10:07:30.575-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-06-18T17:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.190Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1667 |
<p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/" target="_blank">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:53:07.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4048, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 316, "predictions_count": 1085, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1667, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Wisconsin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:23:33.673Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.412Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:53:07.269Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4049, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 316, "predictions_count": 1085, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1667, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Wisconsin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:23:53.777Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.470Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-11-03T19:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-19T14:53:07.290Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4050, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 316, "predictions_count": 1085, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1667, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Wisconsin?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:27:40.068Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:49.522Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1110, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-06-19T17:27:05.411Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 137, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (<a href=\"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href=\"https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral Vote Map</a>). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"The Democratic Party candidate\" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2020-11-05T08:01:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1667, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:27:51.915+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:26:18.252+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T23:02:35.474+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T22:48:48.015+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Wisconsin?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1085, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 316, "published_at": "2020-06-19T16:57:31.841Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-11-19T22:27:40.536Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-19T10:00:42.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-19T17:00:42.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.105Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3154 |
<p>Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-expulsion-vote-house-congress-today/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/01/santos-expelled-special-election-00129590" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/george-santos-congress-special-election-long-island-queens/" target="_blank">CBS New York</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:45:50.641Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "66%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9746, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.6644, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 58, "probability": 0.6644, "probability_formatted": "66%", "question_id": 3154, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:36:58.257Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:45:50.650Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "32%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9747, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "normalized_probability": 0.3225, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 58, "probability": 0.3225, "probability_formatted": "32%", "question_id": 3154, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:36:58.267Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:45:50.659Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "1%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9748, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0131, "positions_count": 39, "predictions_count": 58, "probability": 0.0131, "probability_formatted": "1%", "question_id": 3154, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:36:58.262Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 58, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "\r\n <p>Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-expulsion-vote-house-congress-today/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/01/santos-expelled-special-election-00129590\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/george-santos-congress-special-election-long-island-queens/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS New York</a>).</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2024-02-13T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3154, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 58, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 39, "published_at": "2023-12-08T15:45:50.717Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-12-08T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-12-08T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-12T21:37:00.670Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1645 |
<p>Poland recently postponed its presidential election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was rescheduled for 28 June 2020 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-06-03/poland-to-hold-presidential-election-on-june-28" target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-election-poll/polish-president-would-lose-in-election-second-round-poll-idUSKBN2383CI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). An independent endorsed by a political party would count as a candidate of that political party.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes" with a closing date of 28 June 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-28T19:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T13:44:25.058Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3982, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A Law and Justice candidate will win a majority of votes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1645, "question_name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:06.972Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.236Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-28T19:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T13:44:25.083Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3983, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 124, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1645, "question_name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:05.571Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.340Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-28T19:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T13:44:25.105Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3984, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A Civic Platform candidate will win a majority of votes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1645, "question_name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:03.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.467Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-28T19:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T13:44:25.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3985, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A Civic Platform candidate will win a plurality of votes", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1645, "question_name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:02.233Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.567Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-06-28T19:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2020-06-05T13:44:25.150Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3986, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 50, "predictions_count": 124, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1645, "question_name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:00.593Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:15:45.684Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 124, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-06-06T18:00:18.897Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 21, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "5%", "description": "\r\n <p>Poland recently postponed its presidential election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was rescheduled for 28 June 2020 (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-06-03/poland-to-hold-presidential-election-on-june-28\" target=\"_blank\">US News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-election-poll/polish-president-would-lose-in-election-second-round-poll-idUSKBN2383CI\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). An independent endorsed by a political party would count as a candidate of that political party.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes\" with a closing date of 28 June 2020.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p>\r\n \r\n </p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2020-06-28T06:59:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1645, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:25.411+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:25:00.557+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T17:05:52.829+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T17:03:40.646+00:00"}, "name": "What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 124, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 50, "published_at": "2020-06-05T16:56:38.628Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-06-29T15:47:06.988Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-06-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-06-05T10:00:15.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-06-05T17:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.000Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895 |
<p>Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T13:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:17:21.527Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4727, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1895, "question_name": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador before 1 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:42.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:42.125Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T13:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:17:21.559Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4728, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1895, "question_name": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador before 1 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:40.168Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:40.169Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-09-01T13:00:23.000Z", "created_at": "2021-01-07T23:17:21.599Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 4729, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 109, "predictions_count": 253, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1895, "question_name": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador before 1 September 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:38.173Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:38.174Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 253, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-01-08T19:24:14.286Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 236, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Mexican President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>\r\n ", "ends_at": "2021-09-01T07:01:09.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1895, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:37.647+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:36:03.223+00:00"}, "name": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador before 1 September 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 253, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 109, "published_at": "2021-01-08T15:12:42.776Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-09-01T13:50:42.132Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-01-08T10:00:09.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-01-08T18:00:09.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.177Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3120 | <p>The EPP is currently the largest political group (i.e., party) in the EP (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/european-election-2024-polls-right-wing-big-gains/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/european-parliament-elections-2019/" target="_blank">Politico - Poll of Polls</a>). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/europes-elections-pitch-centrists-against-populists-again" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://elections.europa.eu/en/" target="_blank">European Parliament - Elections</a>). In the event of a tie, the political group with more total votes in the elections will be considered to have won more seats. The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": true, "answers": [{"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.626Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "6%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9538, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 145", "normalized_probability": 0.0598, "positions_count": 164, "predictions_count": 224, "probability": 0.0598, "probability_formatted": "6%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T18:24:59.164Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.635Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "12%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9539, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 145 and 159", "normalized_probability": 0.1239, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.1239, "probability_formatted": "12%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.817Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.642Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "34%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9540, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 160 and 174", "normalized_probability": 0.3414, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.3414, "probability_formatted": "34%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.799Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.649Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "33%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9541, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 175 and 189", "normalized_probability": 0.3276, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.3276, "probability_formatted": "33%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.813Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.657Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "10%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9542, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 190 and 204", "normalized_probability": 0.1012, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.1012, "probability_formatted": "10%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.809Z"}, {"active?": true, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": null, "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:31:07.663Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "5%", "ended?": false, "ends_at": null, "id": 9543, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 204", "normalized_probability": 0.0461, "positions_count": 165, "predictions_count": 227, "probability": 0.0461, "probability_formatted": "5%", "question_id": 3120, "question_name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.804Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 227, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<p>The EPP is currently the largest political group (i.e., party) in the EP (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/european-election-2024-polls-right-wing-big-gains/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/european-parliament-elections-2019/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico - Poll of Polls</a>). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/europes-elections-pitch-centrists-against-populists-again\" target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href=\"https://elections.europa.eu/en/\" target=\"_blank\">European Parliament - Elections</a>). In the event of a tie, the political group with more total votes in the elections will be considered to have won more seats. The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-06-06T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 3120, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 227, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 165, "published_at": "2023-11-17T16:02:14.153Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": false, "resolved_at": null, "scoring_end_time": null, "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-11-17T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-11-17T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "active", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-11T20:46:47.991Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1488 | <p>The 92nd Academy Awards®, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (<a href="https://oscar.go.com/" target="_blank">Oscars</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Renée Zellweger (Judy)" with a closing date of 9 February 2020.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.837Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3383, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:28.982Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:24.949Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.855Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3384, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:27.773Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:25.681Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3385, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:26.581Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:26.473Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.895Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3386, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Charlize Theron (Bombshell)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:25.328Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:26.954Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.915Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3387, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:24.101Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:27.540Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-02-10T07:59:09.000Z", "created_at": "2020-01-15T01:13:48.936Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 3388, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "A tie or other outcome", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 111, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1488, "question_name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:22.521Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:10:27.748Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 111, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2020-01-15T18:30:10.834Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 24, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "<p>The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (<a href=\"https://oscar.go.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Oscars</a>).</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)\" with a closing date of 9 February 2020.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-02-09T07:59:29.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1488, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:12:46.611+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:12:09.339+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T18:31:31.188+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:29:26.121+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 111, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2020-01-15T15:05:23.335Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-02-10T14:52:28.995Z", "scoring_end_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2020-01-15T10:00:29.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2020-01-15T18:00:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.097Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1996 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 5 June 2021 (<a href="https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh" target="_blank">Healthdata.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 31 May 2021 through 6 June 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 6 June 2021.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.830Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5072, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 10,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:29.643Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:29.647Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.863Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5073, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:35.824Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:35.839Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.889Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5074, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 20,000 but fewer than 30,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:40.853Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:40.854Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.914Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5075, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 30,000 and 40,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:37.322Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:37.325Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.940Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5076, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 40,000 but fewer than 50,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:31.181Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:31.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.967Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5077, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 50,000 and 60,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:32.662Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:32.664Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:24.992Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5078, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 60,000 but fewer than 70,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:34.359Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:34.369Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:25.024Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5079, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 70,000 and 80,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:38.914Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:38.916Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2021-06-06T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2021-05-04T19:23:25.063Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 5080, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 80,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 25, "predictions_count": 64, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1996, "question_name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:27.785Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:27.787Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 64, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2021-05-20T04:31:11.673Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 17, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "45%", "description": "\r\n <p>The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 5 June\ufeff 2021 (<a href=\"https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh\" target=\"_blank\">Healthdata.gov</a>). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 31 May 2021 through 6 June 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> or </span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>. </span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span><br></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive\" with a closing date of 6 June 2021.</p><p><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><p></p>", "ends_at": "2021-06-05T07:01:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1996, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:41:02.323+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T03:40:40.239+00:00"}, "name": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 64, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 25, "published_at": "2021-05-05T17:26:24.040Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2021-06-14T21:38:40.921Z", "scoring_end_time": "2021-06-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2021-05-05T11:00:54.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2021-05-05T18:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:52.144Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2436 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022. The Orioles had 35 wins as of 30 June 2022, and they are scheduled to play the Texas Rangers on 1 August 2022 (<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bal/seasontype/2/half/2" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). For the purposes of this question, a game that commences on 1 August 2022 will count toward the total regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a subsequent day.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Between 47 and 52" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:53.887Z", "created_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.827Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6698, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Fewer than 41", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2436, "question_name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:56.580Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:56.581Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:53.887Z", "created_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.836Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6699, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 41 and 46", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2436, "question_name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:57.875Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:57.876Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:53.887Z", "created_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.843Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6700, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 47 and 52", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2436, "question_name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:48:00.554Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-01T15:48:00.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:53.887Z", "created_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6701, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 53 and 58", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2436, "question_name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:59.111Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:59.112Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:53.887Z", "created_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.858Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6702, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "More than 58", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 194, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2436, "question_name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:55.388Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-08-01T15:47:55.389Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 206, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-07-06T05:44:42.106Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 27, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "13%", "description": "\r\n <p>The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022. The Orioles had 35 wins as of 30 June 2022, and they are scheduled to play the Texas Rangers on 1 August 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bal/seasontype/2/half/2\" target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>). For the purposes of this question, a game that commences on 1 August 2022 will count toward the total regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a subsequent day.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Between 47 and 52\" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-08-01T07:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2436, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 194, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 32, "published_at": "2022-07-01T14:39:00.917Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-08-01T15:48:00.562Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-07-01T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-07-01T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2023-12-01T18:04:57.779Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2319 |
<p>Talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/russia-and-ukraine-talks-a-guide-to-the-demands-and-the-red-lines.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-congress-058c8b72b81044f861b30b7ceb500a15" target="_blank">AP</a>). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 December 2022" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T14:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:36:56.385Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6176, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 1 June 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 353, "predictions_count": 1768, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2319, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:21.284Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:21.285Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T14:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:36:56.396Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6177, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 353, "predictions_count": 1768, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2319, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:36.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:36.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T14:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:36:56.405Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6178, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 353, "predictions_count": 1768, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2319, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:05.805Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:05.806Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T14:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:36:56.413Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6179, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2022", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 353, "predictions_count": 1768, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2319, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:51.477Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T14:39:51.478Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2022-12-01T14:00:30.000Z", "created_at": "2022-03-17T20:36:56.422Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 6180, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 December 2022", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 353, "predictions_count": 1768, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2319, "question_name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:40:05.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2022-12-01T14:40:05.638Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1884, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2022-04-04T20:49:32.978Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 241, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "\r\n \r\n <p>Talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/russia-and-ukraine-talks-a-guide-to-the-demands-and-the-red-lines.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-congress-058c8b72b81044f861b30b7ceb500a15\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:.4;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 December 2022\" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2022-12-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2319, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {"recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2022-08-19T13:33:00.445+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2022-08-19T13:24:36.199+00:00"}, "name": "When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1768, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 353, "published_at": "2022-03-18T15:38:30.015Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2022-12-01T14:40:05.647Z", "scoring_end_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2022-03-18T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2022-03-18T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-05T18:00:37.767Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2808 |
<p>On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-03-22/with-few-good-tools-biden-needs-new-law-to-ban-tiktok-experts-say" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/restrict-act-bill-tiktok-rcna73682" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2023/3/senators-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-tackle-national-security-threats-from-foreign-tech" target="_blank">Sen. Mark Warner</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/08/proposed-us-bipartisan-bill-could-lead-to-tiktok-ban/" target="_blank">TechCrunch</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/686/text?s=3&r=1" target="_blank">Congress.gov - S.686</a>). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed "Not before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-23T20:32:20.733Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8111, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Before 11 August 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 326, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2808, "question_name": "When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:33.814Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:33.815Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-23T20:32:20.754Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8112, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 326, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 2808, "question_name": "When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:31.380Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:31.380Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2024-01-01T15:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2023-03-23T20:32:20.763Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 8113, "membership_id": 30031, "name": "Not before 1 January 2024", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 93, "predictions_count": 326, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 2808, "question_name": "When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:22.396Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:22.397Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 328, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2023-03-24T17:05:55.137Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 283, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\n <p>On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-03-22/with-few-good-tools-biden-needs-new-law-to-ban-tiktok-experts-say\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/restrict-act-bill-tiktok-rcna73682\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2023/3/senators-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-tackle-national-security-threats-from-foreign-tech\" target=\"_blank\">Sen. Mark Warner</a>, <a href=\"https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/08/proposed-us-bipartisan-bill-could-lead-to-tiktok-ban/\" target=\"_blank\">TechCrunch</a>, <a href=\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/686/text?s=3&r=1\" target=\"_blank\">Congress.gov - S.686</a>). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">Confused? Check our\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">FAQ</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0or\u00a0</span><a href=\"mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;\">ask us for help</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,\u00a0<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/\" target=\"_blank\">click here</a>.</span></p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/\" target=\"_blank\">see here</a>.\u00a0</span><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/insights/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);\">click here</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p><hr><p>The question closed \"Not before 1 January 2024\" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.</p><p style=\"line-height:1;\"><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0</span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size:10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2024-01-01T08:01:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 2808, "image": null, "membership_id": 30031, "metadata": {}, "name": "When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 326, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 93, "published_at": "2023-03-24T15:40:25.495Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2024-01-10T14:56:33.823Z", "scoring_end_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2023-03-24T10:00:00.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2023-03-24T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2024-01-10T15:02:29.851Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
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