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6,200 | AR6_WGII | 2,143 | 26 | All measures of biodiversity were found to be negatively impacted by projected climate change, namely, species abundance, diversity, area, physiology and fisheries catch potential | medium | 1 | train |
6,201 | AR6_WGII | 2,143 | 27 | However, introduced species’ responses were neutral to positive | medium | 1 | train |
6,202 | AR6_WGII | 2,143 | 29 | Land plants, insects, birds, reptiles and mammals were all projected to be negatively affected (medium confidence), as well as fish, coral reef, benthic, planktonic and other marine species | medium | 1 | train |
6,203 | AR6_WGII | 2,143 | 30 | Of the 6116 projections for more than 2,700 species assessed in biodiversity hotspots, ~44% were found to be at high extinction risk, and ~24% at very high extinction risk due to climate change (Manes et al., 2021) | medium | 1 | train |
6,204 | AR6_WGII | 2,144 | 0 | CCP1 2133Biodiversity Hotspots Cross-Chapter Paper 1 and ocean | medium | 1 | train |
6,205 | AR6_WGII | 2,144 | 5 | This and previous assessments indicate that, while climate change varies spatially and taxa may respond differently, a loss of biodiversity is projected across all terrestrial hotspots | high | 2 | train |
6,206 | AR6_WGII | 2,145 | 3 | CCP1.2.1.3 Compounding and Cascading Effects All biodiversity hotspots are already impacted, to differing degrees, by human activities | high | 2 | train |
6,207 | AR6_WGII | 2,145 | 5 | Thus, climate change impacts on biodiversity hotspots are compounded by other anthropogenic impacts, increasing the vulnerability and reducing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change | very high | 3 | train |
6,208 | AR6_WGII | 2,146 | 8 | Moreover, the present rates of species loss due to human activities are 130 times greater than those projected under future climate change | medium | 1 | train |
6,209 | AR6_WGII | 2,146 | 9 | Marine systems are also vulnerable to cumulative human impacts, which can be direct (e.g., pollution, overfishing) and indirect (altered food webs) | very high | 3 | train |
6,210 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 1 | Although there is a strong overlap of non-climatic and climatic impacts in marine ecosystems (Blowes et al., 2019; Bowler et al., 2020), the effects suggest that climate change impacts are most severe in tropical and northern high-latitude seas | high | 2 | train |
6,211 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 2 | Temperature-driven range shifts and range expansions are projected to also lead to cascading effects on marine biodiversity through ecological interactions | high | 2 | test |
6,212 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 14 | In Central and South America, observed impacts within Mesoamerica (H15, 16) and the Tropical Andes hotspots (H26, 27, 28, 32, 33) comprise upward altitudinal range shifts of birds, frogs, beetles and butterflies (Narins and Meenderink, 2014; Molina-Martínez et al., 2016; Moret et al., 2016; Freeman et al., 2018) | medium | 1 | train |
6,213 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 15 | A shift of the Guianan-Amazon mangroves (H37) to higher grounds inland was attributed to the effects of observed sea level rise | low | 0 | train |
6,214 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 16 | Range shifts in birds have been observed at higher elevations | medium | 1 | train |
6,215 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 20 | Warming and drying trends have historically been shown to reduce the range of the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis), and they interact with land use pressures in the Ethiopian hotspot (H68) (Sintayehu, 2018) and plant species richness in the Cape Fynbos (H65) of southern Africa to reduce post-wildfire recruitment | low | 0 | train |
6,216 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 21 | Observed impacts in Asia were mostly restricted to the Himalaya (H95, 98, 99), Sundaland (H109, 110, 111, 112, 117, 118) and Indo- Burma (H105, 106, 107, 114, 115) hotspots, showing negative impacts through increased invasion by exotic plants, decreased suitable area for endemic species and significant changes in phenology | medium | 1 | train |
6,217 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 24 | In Australia, climate change has been implicated in: drought-induced canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types due to decades of declining rainfall in the southwestern hotspot (H133); fires in the palaeo-endemic pencil pine forests (Tasmania H142); declines in vertebrates in the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, which overlaps with the eastern part of the northern Australia hotspot (H131), related to warming and increased length of the dry season; and declines in grass and increases in shrubs in the Bogong High Plains | high | 2 | train |
6,218 | AR6_WGII | 2,147 | 25 | The Australian Alps have seen increased species diversity following retreat of the snow line (Slatyer, 2010), replacement of long-lived trees by short-lived shrubs following multiple wildfires (Zylstra, 2018), and changing ecological interactions due to climate-related snow loss, drought and fires | high | 2 | train |
6,219 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 1 | One positive observation was the high resilience to recovery of intact forest ecosystems to tropical cyclones within Caribbean (H20) and Pacific islands | medium | 1 | train |
6,220 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 9 | About 85% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change | high | 2 | train |
6,221 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 10 | Projected impacts include contraction or loss of species’ geographic range, loss of diversity and high species turnover | high | 2 | train |
6,222 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 15 | Climate change may also benefit invasive plant species in terms of range expansion (Wang et al., 2017) and physiology (de Faria et al., 2018) in the region.In European biodiversity hotspots, about 75% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~30% at very high risk of extinction | medium | 1 | train |
6,223 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 17 | Increased wildfire size and frequency is projected to have a strong effect on the Mediterranean basin (H216) ecosystems | medium | 1 | train |
6,224 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 18 | Range reductions have been projected for endemic plants (Pérez-García et al., 2013; Casazza et al., 2014), reptiles (Ahmadi et al., 2019), birds (Abolafya et al., 2013) and insects (Sánchez-Guillén et al., 2013) | medium | 1 | train |
6,225 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 19 | In African biodiversity hotspots, about 80% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~10% at very high risk of extinction, especially of endemic species including birds, plants, bees across several taxa and hotspots if warming exceeds 2°C | high | 2 | train |
6,226 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 21 | About ~70% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~30% at very high risk of extinction | medium | 1 | train |
6,227 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 22 | Impacts include species’ range changes, habitat loss for endemic plants, expansion of invasive species, decreased connectivity and overall species richness decline | high | 2 | train |
6,228 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 24 | The few positive impacts of climate change were projected as increases in suitable habitat and distribution range for a few endangered plants and mammals | medium | 1 | train |
6,229 | AR6_WGII | 2,148 | 26 | All projections for assessed species in Australia and New Zealand terrestrial biodiversity hotspots showed a negative impact of climate change, with half at very high risk of extinction | low | 0 | train |
6,230 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 0 | While forest growth is projected to potentially increase due to carbon dioxide fertilization, this may be compromised by drought | low | 0 | test |
6,231 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 1 | Seed production in native New Zealand beech forests is projected to increase due to climate warming, fuelling the abundance of invasive rats and stoats, which then predate native species and lead to loss of endemic fauna and flora | medium | 1 | train |
6,232 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 3 | About 80% of projections for assessed terrestrial species within insular biodiversity hotspots showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~50% at very high risk of extinction, including 100% of endemic species | medium | 1 | train |
6,233 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 4 | In addition to habitat loss and species range reductions, changes in precipitation are projected to be a major driver impacting tropical and subtropical island species | medium | 1 | train |
6,234 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 5 | Compared to continents, island species are projected to undergo greater impacts from changing climate, especially birds and amphibians | high | 2 | train |
6,235 | AR6_WGII | 2,149 | 6 | Of all biodiversity hotspots, island species face the highest proportion of extirpation risk at high elevations due to decreasing habitat area (e.g., Brown et al., 2015) and at low elevations from sea level rise, habitat loss and introduced species | medium | 1 | train |
6,236 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 0 | CCP1 2143Biodiversity Hotspots Cross-Chapter Paper 1 CCP1.2.3.1 Observed Impacts An analysis of trends in 190 river basins in Australia found that stream- flows have been declining, including in the Central Australian (H194) and Kimberley (H191) hotspots, due to greater terrestrial plant uptake of water in response to climate-related increases in carbon dioxide | low | 0 | train |
6,237 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 3 | CCP1.2.3.2 Projected Impacts Cold-water species are projected to lose habitat in Canada and this may apply in the Alaskan river (H143) and Russian Far East Lake Inle (H181) hotspots | medium | 1 | train |
6,238 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 5 | In South America, in the Brazilian Amazon hotspot (H153, 154, 157), half the assessed fish species were considered sensitive to increased temperatures and reduced oxygen due to climate change | low | 0 | train |
6,239 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 8 | In Europe, including the Mediterranean freshwater hotspots, climate change is projected to result in reduced river flow, low oxygen in summer, salinity incursions, further eutrophication and spread of invasive species, compromising the survival of native biodiversity | medium | 1 | train |
6,240 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 9 | The longer growth season in the boreal and Arctic latitudes is projected to aid the invasion of exotic species, and increase lake stratification resulting in lower oxygen below the hypolimnion | medium | 1 | train |
6,241 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 11 | An analysis of 1648 species of freshwater fish, amphibians, turtles, plants, molluscs, crayfish and dragonflies, projected ~6% of common and ~77% of rare species to lose 90% of their geographic range | low | 0 | train |
6,242 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 17 | Thus, the areas where freshwater biodiversity is most threatened by climate change in Europe are in two of the three hotspots (high confidence).The African Rift Valley Lakes (H171), including Lakes Tanganyika and Turkana, are suffering from climate change influenced drought, po- tentially impacting freshwater biodiversity | medium | 1 | train |
6,243 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 18 | Africa and Madagascar (H172) are projected to see a climate-driven 10% reduction in freshwater flow that is projected to threaten the survival of ~9% of freshwater-dependent fish and birds | low | 0 | train |
6,244 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 19 | Climate change is projected to increase the extinction vulnerability of most freshwater fish in the western South Africa Cape hotspot (H170) | low | 0 | train |
6,245 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 20 | In Asia, although climate change impacts on the Yangtze (H183) and Mekong river (H186) biodiversity hotspots have not been reported, they are subject to the range of human impacts of over-exploitation, pollution, water abstraction, altered flow regimes, habitat loss and spread of invasive species, which makes them more vulnerable to climate effects | medium | 1 | train |
6,246 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 21 | The release of water from shrinking glaciers in Asia to some extent protects downstream freshwaters against drought, but half of these glaciers are projected to disappear by 2100 | medium | 1 | train |
6,247 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 22 | In Australia, the Murray-Darling river basin occupies much of the Eastern Rivers hotspot (H195) and climate-related drought exacerbated by water abstraction is projected to drive declines in freshwater birds, fish and invertebrates | high | 2 | train |
6,248 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 23 | A national scale analysis projected climate change to cause freshwater species range shifts, but no losses of species in this hotspot | low | 0 | test |
6,249 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 28 | Marine heatwaves have increased over the past century, causing mass mortalities in the hotspots of the Mediterranean (H216), Great Barrier Reef (H236), western and southern Australia (H227, 228), northwest Atlantic (H207) and northeast Pacific (H197) | high | 2 | test |
6,250 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 29 | The shift of thousands of species from equatorial latitudes since the 1950s has been attributed to climate warming | medium | 1 | train |
6,251 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 30 | Climate change-related hazards, particularly marine heat events, have caused widespread coral bleaching and mass mortalities as the time between consecutive bleaching events decreases | high | 2 | train |
6,252 | AR6_WGII | 2,154 | 31 | Coral reefs in some Indian Ocean hotspots (H230, 234) already exhibit net loss of coral reefs | low | 0 | test |
6,253 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 0 | CCP1 2145Biodiversity Hotspots Cross-Chapter Paper 1 visible symptom of heat stress, warming has also induced restructuring of associated fish and invertebrate communities in the Great Barrier Reef (H236) | medium | 1 | train |
6,254 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 1 | Although the number of coral species that are both exposed and vulnerable to climate hazards is greatest in the central Indo-Pacific, the proportion of corals at risk is greater in the lower diversity Caribbean hotspots (H209) | medium | 1 | train |
6,255 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 2 | Some reef corals are able to acclimate to heatwaves (low confidence) (DeCarlo et al., 2019), and some have expanded their latitudinal ranges polewards | high | 2 | train |
6,256 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 4 | The Mediterranean Sea hotspot (H216) is negatively affected by climate change | high | 2 | train |
6,257 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 5 | Species entering via the Suez Canal from the Red Sea (H220) are facilitated by warming and lead to profound community changes | high | 2 | train |
6,258 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 7 | Kelp forests are in decline in mid-latitudes due to warming and associated increased herbivory | medium | 1 | train |
6,259 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 10 | Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (H236), kelp forests, seagrass meadows and mangroves (due to drought), have suffered mortalities due to climate change | medium | 1 | train |
6,260 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 12 | However, while climate change is having measurable effects on kelp, the dominant effects on kelp projected to 2025 are fishing, through its effects on herbivores and predators | medium | 1 | train |
6,261 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 22 | The distribution of krill has already contracted with ocean warming in the Southern Ocean | medium | 1 | train |
6,262 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 24 | Paleo evidence supports projections of tropical biodiversity loss under high global warming | high | 2 | train |
6,263 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 25 | Warm-water coral reefs are expected to decline with 1.5°C warming (very high confidence) (King et al., 2017; Bindoff et al., 2019) leading to systems with reduced biodiversity and structural complexity | high | 2 | train |
6,264 | AR6_WGII | 2,156 | 27 | While some corals are expected to survive in deep ‘mesophotic’ reefs (Laverick and Rogers, 2019), the shallow coral reefs of today will not last the century if climate warming continues without mitigation | high | 2 | train |
6,265 | AR6_WGII | 2,159 | 3 | Around Antarctica (H213), almost half of all species are endemic (Costello et al., 2010), and warming during this century is projected to cause a reduction in suitable thermal environment for 79% of its species (RCP8.5) | low | 0 | train |
6,266 | AR6_WGII | 2,159 | 5 | Species richness in the northern polar hotspots is expected to increase substantially | high | 2 | train |
6,267 | AR6_WGII | 2,159 | 9 | Where land barriers and other geographical limits to range shifts occur, limited dispersal and habitat fragmentation may also limit the capacity of some species to track climate velocities, such as in the Baltic Sea (H215) (Jonsson et al., 2018), Mediterranean Sea (H216) (Burrows et al., 2014; Arafeh- Dalmau et al., 2021) and Antarctica (H213) | medium | 1 | train |
6,268 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 3 | Many of these hotspots are now faced with widespread fragmentation and habitat degradation | high | 2 | train |
6,269 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 7 | Although mitigation can sharply reduce extinction risk associated with climate change | high | 2 | train |
6,270 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 8 | Thus, in addition to mitigation, the literature consistently calls for reducing current non-climate impacts (e.g., habitat conversion, over-exploitation, hunting, fishing, wildfire, pollution, human-introduced invasive species) in order to increase biodiversity resilience to climate change | very high | 3 | train |
6,271 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 9 | The main strategies to increase resilience rely on the combination of well-planned protected areas, restoration of degraded areas and the sustainable use of biodiversity | high | 2 | train |
6,272 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 10 | On land, creating corridors for species is key for facilitating species movements | high | 2 | train |
6,273 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 14 | Healthier marine ecosystems are more resilient to additional stressors, such as storms and climate change | high | 2 | train |
6,274 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 15 | Extinction risk is lower when populations are larger and more genetically diverse, individuals are larger and older, and seabed habitats (e.g., coral, kelp, seagrass) are flourishing, as occurs in marine reserves | high | 2 | train |
6,275 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 17 | Thus, a network of reserves representative of global biodiversity, helps attenuate the effects of climate change | medium | 1 | train |
6,276 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 18 | However, the impacts of marine heatwaves on corals across marine reserves illustrates that enhanced resilience is not enough to protect against extreme and future climate change conditions | high | 2 | train |
6,277 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 22 | If coastal management permits the expansion of mangroves inland with rising sea level, this will increase carbon sequestration because mangroves capture and preserve more carbon in their sediments than other terrestrial and marine forests and biomes | high | 2 | train |
6,278 | AR6_WGII | 2,160 | 24 | Thus, the protection of existing natural habitats coupled with the restoration of the surrounding non-protected habitat can increase the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in terrestrial and freshwater hotspots | very high | 3 | train |
6,279 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 7 | Islands have disproportionately higher rates of endemism and threat when compared to continents, with 80% of historical extinctions (since 1500 CE) having occurred on islands | high | 2 | train |
6,280 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 8 | Current climate change projections suggest that insular species are particularly sensitive and, even at mild warming levels, substantial losses are expected | high | 2 | train |
6,281 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 9 | Given islands’ characteristic high endemicity, current high threat levels and the fact that islands host almost half of all species currently considered to be at risk of extinction, especially at higher warming levels | high | 2 | train |
6,282 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 13 | Unlike continental environments, insular species often have limited opportunities for autonomous adaptation from not having enough geographic space to shift their ranges to track suitable climatic conditions | high | 2 | train |
6,283 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 16 | Intact island forests, for example, have shown rapid recovery rates after tropical cyclones, despite high levels of initial damage, especially in the Caribbean | medium | 1 | train |
6,284 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 19 | However, this climate resilience will not be sustained under climate change, especially when coupled with habitat degradation | high | 2 | train |
6,285 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 24 | Widespread unavailability of such data constrains accurate simulations of climatic variation within the small-scale mountainous and coastal regions of islands, associated with climate refugia and high habitat heterogeneity | high | 2 | train |
6,286 | AR6_WGII | 2,161 | 25 | This is a key element contributing to the continued delay in development of robust adaptation strategies towards not only biodiversity conservation but other important cross-sectoral issues | medium | 1 | train |
6,287 | AR6_WGII | 2,162 | 0 | CCP1 2151Biodiversity Hotspots Cross-Chapter Paper 1 Due to islands’ limited size and isolation, conventional conservation measures focused on expanding protected areas, dispersal corridors and buffer zones are of limited effectiveness on islands | high | 2 | train |
6,288 | AR6_WGII | 2,162 | 5 | These lend to private–public partnerships, increasing the potential of solutions reaching beyond protected areas boundaries and affecting socio-political change | high | 2 | train |
6,289 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 1 | Much of the world’s population, economic activities and critical infrastructure are concentrated near the sea (high confidence), with nearly 11% of the global population, or 896 million people, already living on low-lying coasts directly exposed to interacting climatic and non-climatic coastal hazards | very high | 3 | train |
6,290 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 2 | Low-lying cities and settlements (C&S) by the sea are experiencing adverse climate impacts that are superimposed on extensive and accelerating anthropogenic coastal change | very high | 3 | train |
6,291 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 3 | Depending on coastal C&S characteristics, continuing existing patterns of coastal development will worsen exposure and vulnerability | high | 2 | train |
6,292 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 4 | With accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and worsening climate-driven risks in a warming world, prospects for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and charting climate resilient development (CRD) pathways are dismal | high | 2 | train |
6,293 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 5 | However, coastal C&S are also the source of SDG and CRD solutions, because they are centres of innovation with long histories of place-based livelihoods, many of which are globally connected through maritime trade and exchange | medium | 1 | train |
6,294 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 6 | Regardless of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, many C&S face severe disruption to coastal ecosystems and livelihoods by 2050—extending to all C&S by 2100 and beyond—caused by compound and cascading risks, including submergence of some low-lying island states | very high | 3 | train |
6,295 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 9 | These risks are acute for C&S on subsiding and/or low-lying small islands, the Arctic, and open, estuarine and deltaic coasts | high | 2 | train |
6,296 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 10 | By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying C&S will be at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action | high | 2 | train |
6,297 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 11 | Between USD 7 and 14 trillion of coastal infrastructure assets will be exposed by 2100, depending on warming levels and socioeconomic development trajectories | medium | 1 | train |
6,298 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 16 | The coastal flood risk will rapidly increase during coming decades, possibly by 2–3 orders of magnitude by 2100 in the absence of effective adaptation and mitigation, with severe impacts on coast-dependent livelihoods and socioecological systems | high | 2 | train |
6,299 | AR6_WGII | 2,176 | 19 | Severely accelerated SLR resulting from rapid continental ice mass loss would bring impacts forward by decades, and adaptation would need to occur much faster and on a much greater scale than ever performed in the past | medium | 1 | train |
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