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3,800 | AR6_WGII | 447 | 14 | Projections also suggest that warming-related increases in trophic efficiency lead to a 17% increase in the biomass of the deep-scattering layer (zooplankton and fish in the mesopelagic) by 2100 | low | 0 | test |
3,801 | AR6_WGII | 447 | 15 | Observational studies appear to show that mesopelagic fishes adapted to warm water increased in abundance and distribution in the California Current associated with warming and the expansion of OMZ (Koslow et al., 2019), suggesting that some mesopelagic fish stocks might be resilient to a changing climate | medium | 1 | train |
3,802 | AR6_WGII | 447 | 19 | Moreover, different trophic levels within epipelagic food webs are responding at different rates | very high | 3 | train |
3,803 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 4 | There is high agreement in model projections that the start of the phytoplankton Table 3.18 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of phenological shifts and trophic mismatches Observations Projections AR5 WGII (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Larsen et al., 2014) ‘Changes to sea temperature have altered the phenology, or timing of key life-history events such as plankton blooms, and migratory patterns, and spawning in fish and invertebrates, over recent decades | medium | 1 | train |
3,804 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 5 | There is medium to high agreement that these changes pose significant uncertainties and risks to fisheries, aquaculture and other coastal activities.’ The highly productive high-latitude spring bloom systems in the northeast Atlantic are responding to warming (medium evidence, high agreement), with the greatest changes being observed since the late 1970s in the phenology, distribution and abundance of plankton assemblages, and the reorganisation of fish assemblages, with a range of consequences for fisheries | high | 2 | train |
3,805 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 8 | This impact would be exacerbated if shifts in timing occur rapidly | medium | 1 | train |
3,806 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 9 | SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) ‘Phenology of marine ectotherms in the epipelagic systems related to ocean warming (high confidence) and the timing of biological events has shifted earlier | high | 2 | train |
3,807 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 10 | WGI AR6 Chapter 2 (Gulev et al., 2021) ‘Phenological metrics for many species of marine organisms have changed in the last half century | high | 2 | train |
3,808 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 11 | The changes vary with location and with species | high | 2 | train |
3,809 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 12 | There is a strong dependence of survival in higher trophic-level organisms (fish, exploited invertebrates, birds) on the availability of food at various stages in their life cycle, which in turn depends on the phenologies of both | high | 2 | train |
3,810 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 16 | Overall, the regional patterns are qualitatively similar under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 but with greater magnitude and larger areas under SSP5-8.5 | low | 0 | train |
3,811 | AR6_WGII | 448 | 18 | Furthermore, under RCP8.5, trophic mismatch events exceeding ±30 days (Asch et al., 2019) leading to fish-recruitment failure are expected to increase tenfold for geographic spawners across much of the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Arctic Ocean basins | low | 0 | train |
3,812 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 3 | Temperatures during the last Interglacial (~125 ka), which were warmer than today, led to poleward range shifts of reef corals | medium | 1 | train |
3,813 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 4 | Temperature has also driven marine range shifts over multi-million-year time scales | medium | 1 | train |
3,814 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 5 | Warming climates, even with low ocean- warming rates, inevitably decreased tropical marine biodiversity compared with middle latitudes | high | 2 | train |
3,815 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 6 | The paleorecord confirms that marine biodiversity has been vulnerable to climate warming both globally and regionally | very high | 3 | train |
3,816 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 7 | In extreme cases of warming (e.g., >5.2°C), marine mass extinctions occurred in the geological past, and there may be a relationship between warming magnitude and extinction toll | medium | 1 | train |
3,817 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 8 | A combination of warming and spreading anoxia caused marine extinctions in ancient episodes of rapid climate warming | high | 2 | train |
3,818 | AR6_WGII | 449 | 9 | The role of ocean acidification in ancient extinctions is yet to be resolved | low | 0 | train |
3,819 | AR6_WGII | 451 | 4 | At the community level, the magnitude and shape of projected future biodiversity changes differ depending on which groups are considered | medium | 1 | train |
3,820 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 5 | On longer time scales, alteration of energy flow through marine food webs may lead to ecological tipping points (Wernberg et al., 2016; Harley et al., 2017) after which the food web collapses into shorter, bottom-heavy trophic pyramids | medium | 1 | train |
3,821 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 7 | Table 3.20 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of community composition and biodiversity Observations Projections AR5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Pörtner et al., 2014) The paleoecological record shows that global climate changes comparable in magnitudes to those projected for the 21st century under all scenarios resulted in large-scale biome shifts and changes in community composition, and that for rates projected under RCP6 and 8.5 those changes were associated with species extinctions in some groups | high | 2 | train |
3,822 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 8 | Loss of corals due to bleaching has a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of marine biodiversity in the tropics (high confidence).Spatial shifts of marine species due to projected warming will cause high-latitude invasions and high local-extinction rates in the tropics and semi-enclosed seas | medium | 1 | train |
3,823 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 9 | Species richness and fisheries catch potential are projected to increase, on average, at mid and high latitudes (high confidence) and decrease at tropical latitudes | medium | 1 | train |
3,824 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 11 | Thereby, climate change will reassemble communities and affect biodiversity, with differences over time and between biomes and latitudes | high | 2 | train |
3,825 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 12 | However, specific quantitative projections by these models remain imprecise (low confidence).’ SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) ‘Ocean warming has contributed to observed changes in biogeography of organisms ranging from phytoplankton to marine mammals (high confidence), consequently changing community composition (high confidence), and in some cases altering interactions between organisms and ecosystem function | medium | 1 | train |
3,826 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 14 | In addition, geographic barriers, such as land, [bounding the] poleward species range edge in semi-enclosed seas or low-oxygen water in deeper waters are projected to limit range shifts, resulting in a larger relative decrease in species richness (medium confidence).’ ‘The large variation in sensitivity between different zooplankton taxa to future conditions of warming and ocean acidification suggests elevated risk on community structure and inter-specific interactions of zooplankton in the 21st century | medium | 1 | train |
3,827 | AR6_WGII | 452 | 15 | Under continuing climate change, the projected loss of biodiversity may ultimately threaten marine ecosystem stability (medium confidence) (Albouy et al., 2020; Nagelkerken et al., 2020; Henson et al., 2021), altering both the functioning and structure of marine ecosystems and thus affecting service provisioning | medium | 1 | train |
3,828 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 3 | Abrupt ecosystem shifts have been observed in both large open-ocean ecosystems and coastal ecosystems (Section 3.4.2), with dramatic social consequences through significant loss of diverse ecosystem services | high | 2 | train |
3,829 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 5 | Abrupt ecosystem shifts are associated with large-scale patterns of climate variability (Alheit et al., 2019; Beaugrand et al., 2019; Lehodey et al., 2020), some of which are projected to intensify with climate change | medium | 1 | train |
3,830 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 6 | Over the past 60 years, abrupt ecosystem shifts have generally followed El Niño/ Southern Oscillation events of any strength, but some periods had geographically limited ecological shifts (~0.25% of the global ocean in 1984–1987) and others more extensive shifts (14% of the global ocean in 2012–2015) | medium | 1 | train |
3,831 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 7 | Typically, interacting drivers, such as eutrophication and overharvest, reduce ecosystem resilience to climate extremes (e.g., MHWs, cyclones) or gradual warming, and hence promote ecosystem shifts | high | 2 | train |
3,832 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 8 | Shifts in different ecosystems may be connected through common drivers or through cascading effects | medium | 1 | test |
3,833 | AR6_WGII | 453 | 9 | Recent MHWs (Section 3.2.2.1) have caused major ecosystem shifts and mass mortality in oceanic and coastal ecosystems, including corals, kelp forests and seagrass meadows (Sections 3.4.2.1, 3.4.2.3, 3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.6, 3.4.2.10; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING SPECIES in Chapter 5; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in Chapter 2), with dramatic declines in species foundational for habitat formation or trophic flow, biodiversity declines, and biogeographic shifts in fish stocks | very high | 3 | train |
3,834 | AR6_WGII | 454 | 10 | Marine birds and mammals are vulnerable to climate-induced loss of breeding and foraging habitats such as sea ice (Section 3.4.2.12), sandy beaches (Section 3.4.2.6), salt marshes (Section 3.4.2.5) and seagrass beds | high | 2 | train |
3,835 | AR6_WGII | 454 | 12 | Marine mammals dependent on sea ice habitat are particularly vulnerable to warming | medium | 1 | train |
3,836 | AR6_WGII | 455 | 1 | Nevertheless, even under an intermediate emission scenario RCP4.5, increasing ice-free periods will likely reduce both recruitment and adult survival across most polar bear populations over the next four decades, threatening their existence | medium | 1 | train |
3,837 | AR6_WGII | 455 | 2 | Climate change is affecting marine food-web dynamics | high | 2 | train |
3,838 | AR6_WGII | 455 | 3 | Higher-vulnerability species include central-place foragers (confined to, for example, breeding colonies fixed in space), diet and habitat specialists, and species with restricted distributions such as marine mammal populations in SES | medium | 1 | train |
3,839 | AR6_WGII | 455 | 4 | Surface-feeding and piscivorous marine birds appear to be more vulnerable to food-web changes than diving seabirds and planktivorous seabirds | medium | 1 | train |
3,840 | AR6_WGII | 455 | 6 | Marine birds are vulnerable to phenological shifts in food-web dynamics, as they have limited phenotypic plasticity of reproductive timing, with potentially little scope for evolutionary adaptation | medium | 1 | train |
3,841 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 2 | Also, climate-change driven distributional shifts have strengthened interactions with other anthropogenic impacts, through, for example, increasing risks of ship strikes and bycatch (medium confidence) (e.g., Hauser et al., 2018; Krüger et al., 2018; Record et al., 2019; Santora et al., 2020).Box 3.2 (continued) the risk of abrupt ecosystem shifts | high | 2 | train |
3,842 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 4 | However, where climate change is a dominant driver, ecosystem collapses increasingly cause permanent transitions | high | 2 | train |
3,843 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 5 | Over the coming decades, MHWs are projected to very likely become more frequent under all emission scenarios (Section 3.2; WGI AR6 Chapter 9; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021), with intensities and rates too high for recovery of degraded foundational species, habitats or biodiversity | medium | 1 | train |
3,844 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 9 | In contrast, the anthropogenic signal in phytoplankton community structure, which has a lower natural variability, will emerge under RCP8.5 across 63% of the ocean by 2100 when two standard deviations are used (limited evidence) (Dutkiewicz et al., 2019).Table 3.21 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of observed and projected abrupt ecosystem shifts and extreme events Observations Projections AR5 (Wong et al., 2014) Observations of abrupt ecosystem shifts and extreme events were not assessed in this report.‘Warming and acidification will lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and decreased constructional ability | high | 2 | train |
3,845 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 10 | Temperate seagrass and kelp ecosystems will decline with the increased frequency of heatwaves and sea temperature extremes as well as through the impact of invasive subtropical species (high confidence).’ SROCC (Collins et al., 2019a) ‘Marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of extremely high ocean temperatures, have negatively impacted marine organisms and ecosystems in all ocean basins over the last two decades, including critical foundation species such as corals, seagrasses and kelps (very high confidence).’‘Marine heatwaves are projected to further increase in frequency, duration, spatial extent and intensity (maximum temperature) | very high | 3 | train |
3,846 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 11 | Climate models project increases in the frequency of marine heatwaves by 2081–2100, relative to 1850–1900, by approximately 50 times under RCP8.5 and 20 times under RCP2.6 | medium | 1 | train |
3,847 | AR6_WGII | 456 | 12 | Extreme El Niño events are projected to occur about twice as often under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 21st century when compared to the 20th century (medium confidence).’ ‘Limiting global warming would reduce the risk of impacts of MHWs, but critical thresholds for some ecosystems (e.g., kelp forests, coral reefs) will be reached at relatively low levels of future global warming | high | 2 | train |
3,848 | AR6_WGII | 457 | 2 | Better accounting for multiple interacting factors in ESMs (see Box 3.1) will provide insight into how marine ecosystems will respond to future climate | high | 2 | train |
3,849 | AR6_WGII | 457 | 14 | Using an ensemble of global-scale marine ecosystem and fisheries models (Fish-MIP) (Tittensor et al., 2018) with the CMIP5 ESM ensemble, SROCC concludes that projected ocean warming and decreased phytoplankton production and biomass will reduce global marine animal biomass during the 21st century | medium | 1 | train |
3,850 | AR6_WGII | 460 | 1 | These declines result from combined warming and decreased primary production (with low confidence in future changes in primary production; Section 3.4.3.5) and are amplified at each trophic level within all ESM and marine ecosystem model projections across all scenarios | medium | 1 | train |
3,851 | AR6_WGII | 461 | 3 | Owing to contradictory observations there is currently uncertainty about the future trends of major upwelling systems and how their drivers (enhanced productivity, acidification and hypoxia) will shape ecosystem characteristics | low | 0 | test |
3,852 | AR6_WGII | 461 | 4 | Animal biomass Observed changes in animal biomass were not assessed in this report.‘The climate-change-induced intensification of ocean upwelling in some eastern boundary systems, as observed in the last decades, may lead to regional cooling, rather than warming, of surface waters and cause enhanced productivity | medium | 1 | train |
3,853 | AR6_WGII | 461 | 8 | The strong dependence of the projected declines on phytoplankton production | low | 0 | train |
3,854 | AR6_WGII | 461 | 11 | Some increases are projected in the polar regions, due to enhanced stratification in the surface ocean, reduced primary production and shifts towards small phytoplankton | medium | 1 | train |
3,855 | AR6_WGII | 462 | 4 | Overall, ocean warming and decreased phytoplankton production and biomass will drive a global decline in biomass for zooplankton (low confidence), marine animals (medium confidence) and seafloor benthos (low confidence), with regional differences in the direction and magnitude of changes | high | 2 | train |
3,856 | AR6_WGII | 462 | 5 | There is increasing evidence that responses will amplify throughout the food web and at ocean depths, with relatively modest changes in surface primary producers translating into substantial changes at higher trophic levels and for deep-water benthic communities | medium | 1 | train |
3,857 | AR6_WGII | 462 | 9 | This is consistent with previous assessments that identified ocean warming and increased stratification as the main drivers | high | 2 | train |
3,858 | AR6_WGII | 462 | 16 | Furthermore, accurate simulation of many of the biogeochemical tracers upon which NPP depends (e.g., the distribution of iron; Tagliabue et al., 2016; Bindoff et al., 2019a) remains a significant and ongoing challenge to ESMs | high | 2 | train |
3,859 | AR6_WGII | 464 | 1 | Increasing model complexity with more widespread representation of ocean biogeochemical processes between CMIP5 and CMIP6, and inclusion of more than one or two classes of phyto- and zooplankton, will provide opportunities to improve assessments of how climate-induced drivers affect different components of biological carbon pump in the epipelagic ocean, as well as changes in the efficiency and magnitude of carbon export in the deep ocean | high | 2 | train |
3,860 | AR6_WGII | 464 | 5 | Model results indicate that sea surface temperatures (high confidence), Arctic sea ice (high confidence), surface ocean acidification (very high confidence) and surface ocean deoxygenation | very high | 3 | train |
3,861 | AR6_WGII | 464 | 7 | In an overshoot scenario in which CO 2 returns to 2040 levels by 2100 (SSP5-3.4-OS; O’Neill et al., 2016), SST and Arctic sea ice do not fully return by 2100 to levels prior to the CO 2 peak | medium | 1 | train |
3,862 | AR6_WGII | 464 | 8 | Models also indicate that global sea level rise, as well as warming, ocean acidification and deoxygenation at depth, are irreversible for centuries or longer | very high | 3 | train |
3,863 | AR6_WGII | 464 | 11 | A small decrease in productivity is evident globally for the period 1998–2015, but regional changes are larger and of opposing signs | low | 0 | train |
3,864 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 1 | The deep sea covers >63% of Earth’s surface (Costello and Cheung, 2010) and is exposed to climate-driven changes in abyssal, intermediate and surface waters that influence sinking fluxes of particulate organic matter | high | 2 | train |
3,865 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 7 | Acute mortality of some reef-forming cold-water corals to laboratory-simulated warming (Lunden et al., 2014) suggests that both long-term warming and the increase of MHWs in intermediate and deep waters (Elzahaby and Schaeffer, 2019) could pose significant risk to associated ecosystems | high | 2 | test |
3,866 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 9 | The extension and intensification of deep-water acidification (Section 3.2.3.1) has been identified as a further key risk to deep-water coral ecosystems | medium | 1 | train |
3,867 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 12 | Desmophyllum pertusum7and Madrepora oculata maintain calcification in moderately low pH (7.75) and near-saturation of aragonite (Hennige et al., 2014; Maier et al., 2016; Büscher et al., 2017), but lower pH (7.6) and corrosive conditions lead to net dissolution of D. pertusum skeletons | high | 2 | train |
3,868 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 15 | In OMZ regions (Section 3.2.3.2), benthic species distributions (Sperling et al., 2016; Levin, 2018; Gallo et al., 2020), abundance and composition of demersal fishes in canyons (De Leo et al., 2012) and deep-pelagic zooplankton (Wishner et al., 2018) follow oxygen gradients, indicating that deep-sea biodiversity and ecosystem structure will be impacted by extension of hypoxic areas | medium | 1 | train |
3,869 | AR6_WGII | 465 | 18 | Despite mortality and functional impacts from low oxygen concentrations observed in aquaria (Lunden et al., 2014), recent observations of the deep-water coral D. pertusum suggest adaptive capacity to hypoxia among specimens from OMZ regions that are highly productive | low | 0 | train |
3,870 | AR6_WGII | 466 | 3 | Climate-driven impacts further limit the resilience of deep-sea ecosystems to impacts from human activities | high | 2 | train |
3,871 | AR6_WGII | 466 | 6 | The spatial resolution of CMIP5 models is too coarse to robustly project changes in mesoscale circulation at the seafloor (Sulpis et al., 2019), on which deep-sea ecosystems depend for organic material supplies and dispersal of planktonic and planktotrophic larvae | high | 2 | train |
3,872 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 5 | Biodiversity has changed in association with ocean warming and loss of sea ice, sea level rise, coral bleaching, marine heat waves and upwelling changes | high | 2 | test |
3,873 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 6 | Overlapping non-climate drivers (Section 3.1) also decrease ocean and coastal ecosystem biodiversity | very high | 3 | train |
3,874 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 9 | Projected changes in biodiversity due to climate change (Section 3.4.3.3.3) are expected to alter the flow and array of ocean and coastal ecosystem services | high | 2 | train |
3,875 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 10 | Non-indigenous marine species are major agents of ocean and coastal biodiversity change, and climate and non-climate drivers interact to support their movement and success | high | 2 | train |
3,876 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 11 | At times, non-indigenous species act invasively and outcompete indigenous species, causing regional biodiversity shifts and altering ecosystem function, as seen in the Mediterranean region | high | 2 | train |
3,877 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 14 | Non-climate drivers, especially marine shipping in newly ice-free locations (Chan et al., 2019), fishing pressure (Last et al., 2011), aquaculture of non-indigenous species (Mach et al., 2017; Ruby and Ahilan, 2018) and marine pollution and debris (Gall and Thompson, 2015; Carlton et al., 2018; Carlton and Fowler, 2018; Lasut et al., 2018; Miralles et al., 2018; Rech et al., 2018; Therriault et al., 2018), promote range shifts and movement of non-indigenous species | high | 2 | train |
3,878 | AR6_WGII | 467 | 16 | Invasive marine species can alter species behaviour, reduce indigenous species abundance, reduce water clarity, bioaccumulate more heavy metals than indigenous species and inhibit ecosystem resilience in the face of extreme events | medium | 1 | train |
3,879 | AR6_WGII | 468 | 23 | Catch composition is changing in many locations fished by smaller-scale, less-mobile commercial, artisanal and recreational fisheries | high | 2 | train |
3,880 | AR6_WGII | 468 | 25 | Where possible, fishers are maintaining harvests by broadening catch diversity, traveling poleward and changing gear and strategies | high | 2 | train |
3,881 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 1 | Both positive and negative impacts result for food security through fisheries (medium confidence), local cultures and livelihoods (medium confidence), and tourism and recreation | medium | 1 | train |
3,882 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 2 | The impacts on ecosystem services have negative consequences for health and well-being (medium confidence), and for Indigenous Peoples and local communities dependent on fisheries (high confidence) (1.1, 1.5, 3.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, Figure SPM.2)’ (SROCC SPM A.8; IPCC, 2019c).‘Long-term loss and degradation of marine ecosystems compromises the ocean’s role in cultural, recreational, and intrinsic values important for human identity and well-being | medium | 1 | train |
3,883 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 3 | Biodiversity (Section 3.5.2)‘[Climate] Impacts are already observed on [coastal ecosystem] habitat area and biodiversity, as well as ecosystem functioning and services | high | 2 | train |
3,884 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 4 | Food provision (Section 3.5.3)‘Warming-induced changes in the spatial distribution and abundance of some fish and shellfish stocks have had positive and negative impacts on catches, economic benefits, livelihoods, and local culture | high | 2 | train |
3,885 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 5 | There are negative consequences for Indigenous Peoples and local communities that are dependent on fisheries | high | 2 | train |
3,886 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 6 | Shifts in species distributions and abundance has challenged international and national ocean and fisheries governance, including in the Arctic, North Atlantic and Pacific, in terms of regulating fishing to secure ecosystem integrity and sharing of resources between fishing entities (high confidence) (3.2.4, 3.5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, Figure SPM.2)’ (SROCC SPM A.8.1; IPCC, 2019c).‘Future shifts in fish distribution and decreases in their abundance and fisheries catch potential due to climate change are projected to affect income, livelihoods, and food security of marine resource-dependent communities | medium | 1 | train |
3,887 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 7 | Long-term loss and degradation of marine ecosystems compromises the ocean’s role in cultural, recreational, and intrinsic values important for human identity and well-being | medium | 1 | test |
3,888 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 9 | The emerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy sector (high confidence), although their potential may also be affected by climate change | low | 0 | train |
3,889 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 10 | Habitat creation and maintenance (Section 3.5.5.1)‘[Climate] Impacts are already observed on [coastal ecosystem] habitat area and biodiversity, as well as ecosystem functioning and services | high | 2 | train |
3,890 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 13 | Climate regulation and air quality (Section 3.5.5.2)‘Global ocean heat content continued to increase throughout [the 1951 to present] period, indicating continuous warming of the entire climate system | very high | 3 | train |
3,891 | AR6_WGII | 469 | 15 | This is projected to result in a higher proportion of emitted CO 2 remaining in the atmosphere | high | 2 | train |
3,892 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 2 | Technology-based adaptations (Section 3.6.3) have minimised aquaculture losses from ocean acidification, including early-warning systems to guide hatchery operations and culturing resilient shellfish Ecosystem service and chapter subsectionObserved impacts Projected impacts Observed impacts on marine organisms’ contribution to climate regulation not previously assessed.‘The effect of climate change on marine biota will alter their contribution to climate regulation, that is, the maintenance of the chemical composition and physical processes in the atmosphere and oceans | high | 2 | train |
3,893 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 3 | Provision of freshwater, maintenance of water quality, regulation of pathogens (Section 3.5.5.3)Observed climate impacts on salinisation of coastal soil and groundwater not previously assessed.‘In the absence of more ambitious adaptation efforts compared to today, and under current trends of increasing exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities, risks, such as erosion and land loss, flooding, salinisation, and cascading impacts due to mean sea level rise and extreme events are projected to significantly increase throughout this century under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios | very high | 3 | train |
3,894 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 8 | Regulation of physical hazards (Section 3.5.5.4)‘Coastal ecosystems are already impacted by the combination of sea level rise, other climate-related ocean changes, and adverse effects from human activities on ocean and land (high confidence)... Coastal and near-shore ecosystems including saltmarshes, mangroves, and vegetated dunes in sandy beaches,...provide important services including coastal protection...(high confidence)’ (SROCC Chapter 4 Executive Summary; Oppenheimer et al., 2019).‘The decline in warm water coral reefs is projected to greatly compromise the services they provide to society, such as...coastal protection | high | 2 | train |
3,895 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 10 | However, the effect of these changes is not yet reflected in a weakening trend of the contemporary (1960–2019) ocean sink | high | 2 | train |
3,896 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 14 | Cultural services (Section 3.5.6)‘Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods at risk | medium | 1 | train |
3,897 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 15 | This includes potentially rapid and irreversible loss of culture and local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, and negative impacts on traditional diets and food security, aesthetic aspects, and marine recreational activities (medium confidence)’ (SROCC SPM B.8.4; IPCC, 2019c).‘Future shifts in fish distribution and decreases in their abundance and fisheries catch potential due to climate change are projected to affect income, livelihoods, and food security of marine resource-dependent communities | medium | 1 | train |
3,898 | AR6_WGII | 470 | 16 | Long-term loss and degradation of marine ecosystems compromises the ocean’s role in cultural, recreational, and intrinsic values important for human identity and well-being | medium | 1 | train |
3,899 | AR6_WGII | 471 | 1 | Laboratory studies show that ocean acidification decreases the fitness, growth or survival of many economically and culturally important larval or juvenile shelled mollusks | high | 2 | train |
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