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3,600 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 6 | The increased water depth due to coral loss and reef erosion, as well as reduced structural complexity, will limit wave attenuation and exacerbate the risk of flooding from SLR on reef- Table 3.3 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of coral reefs Observations Projections AR5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Wong et al., 2014) Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable marine ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
3,601 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 7 | Mass coral bleaching and mortality, triggered by positive temperature anomalies | high | 2 | train |
3,602 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 8 | Ocean acidification reduces biodiversity and the calcification rate of corals (high confidence) while at the same time increasing the rate of dissolution of the reef framework | medium | 1 | train |
3,603 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 12 | SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) ‘New evidence since AR5 and SR15 confirms the impacts of ocean warming and acidification on coral reefs (high confidence), enhancing reef dissolution and bioerosion (high confidence), affecting coral species distribution and leading to community changes | high | 2 | train |
3,604 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 13 | The rate of SLR (primarily noticed in small reef islands) may outpace the growth of reefs to keep up, although there is low agreement in the literature (low confidence).’ ‘Reefs are further exposed to other increased impacts, such as enhanced storm intensity, turbidity and increased runoff from the land | high | 2 | train |
3,605 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 14 | Recovery of coral reefs resulting from repeated disturbance events is slow | high | 2 | train |
3,606 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 15 | Only few coral reef areas show some resilience to global change drivers (low confidence).’‘Coral reefs will face very high risk at temperatures 1.5°C of global sea surface warming (very high confidence).’ ‘Almost all coral reefs will degrade from their current state, even if global warming remains below 2°C (very high confidence), and the remaining shallow coral reef communities will differ in species composition and diversity from present reefs | very high | 3 | train |
3,607 | AR6_WGII | 424 | 16 | This will greatly diminish the services they provide to society, such as food provision (high confidence), coastal protection (high confidence) and tourism (medium confidence).’ ‘The very high vulnerability of coral reefs to warming, ocean acidification, increasing storm intensity and SLR under climate change, including enhanced bioerosion | high | 2 | train |
3,608 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 1 | Local coral reef fish species richness is projected to decline due to the impacts of warming on coral cover and diversity | high | 2 | train |
3,609 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 3 | Major reef crises in the past 300 million years were governed by hyperthermal events (medium confidence) (Section 3.2.4.4; Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1) longer in time scale than anthropogenic climate change, during which net coral reef accretion was more strongly affected than biodiversity | medium | 1 | test |
3,610 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 10 | Recovery and restoration efforts that target heat- resistant coral populations and culture heat-tolerant algal symbionts have the greatest potential of effectiveness under future warming | high | 2 | train |
3,611 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 12 | In summary, additional evidence since SROCC and SR15 (Table 3.3) finds that living coral and reef growth are declining due to warming and MHWs | very high | 3 | train |
3,612 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 13 | Coral reefs are under threat of transitioning to net erosion with >1.5°C of global warming | high | 2 | train |
3,613 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 14 | The effectiveness of conservation efforts to sustain living coral area, coral diversity and reef growth is limited for the majority of the world’s reefs with >1.5°C of global warming | high | 2 | train |
3,614 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 20 | For example, the collapse of sea star populations in the Northeast Pacific due to a MHW-related disease outbreak (Hewson et al., 2014; Menge et al., 2016; Miner et al., 2018; Schiebelhut et al., 2018), including 80–100% loss of the common predatory sunflower star, Pycnopodia helianthoides | very high | 3 | train |
3,615 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 21 | Multiple lines of evidence find that foundational calcifying organisms such as mussels are at high risk of decline due to both the individual and synergistic effects of warming, acidification and hypoxia | high | 2 | train |
3,616 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 23 | Experiments show that ocean acidification negatively impacts mussel physiology | very high | 3 | train |
3,617 | AR6_WGII | 425 | 24 | Net calcification and abundance of mussels and other foundational species, including oysters, are expected to decline due to ocean acidification (very high confidence) (Kwiatkowski et al., 2016; Sunday et al., 2016; McCoy et al., 2018; Meng et al., 2018), causing the reorganisation of communities | high | 2 | train |
3,618 | AR6_WGII | 426 | 10 | Experiments indicate that warming reduces calcification by coralline algae | high | 2 | train |
3,619 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 1 | The upper vertical limits of some species will also be constrained by climate change | high | 2 | train |
3,620 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 2 | Experimental evidence since previous assessments further indicates that acidification decreases abundance and richness of calcifying species | high | 2 | train |
3,621 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 3 | Synergistic effects of warming and acidification will promote shifts towards macroalgal dominance in some ecosystems (medium confidence) and lead to reorganisation of communities | medium | 1 | train |
3,622 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 8 | Recent research (Straub et al., 2019; Butler et al., 2020; Filbee-Dexter et al., 2020b; Tait et al., 2021) supports the findings of previous assessments (Table 3.5) that kelp and other seaweeds in most regions are undergoing mass mortalities from high temperature extremes and range shifts from warming | very high | 3 | train |
3,623 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 12 | The most prominent effects are range shifts of species in response to ocean warming (high confidence) and changes in species distribution and abundance (high confidence) mostly in relation to ocean warming and acidification.’ ‘The dramatic decline of biodiversity in mussel beds of the Californian coast has been attributed to large-scale processes associated with climate-related drivers [...] (high confidence).’‘The abundance and distribution of rocky shore species will continue to change in a warming world | high | 2 | train |
3,624 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 13 | For example, the long-term consequences of ocean warming on mussel beds of the northeast Pacific are both positive (increased growth) and negative (increased susceptibility to stress and of exposure to predation) (medium confidence).’ ‘Observations performed near natural CO 2 vents in the Mediterranean Sea show that diversity, biomass and trophic complexity of rocky shore communities will decrease at future pH levels (high confidence).’ SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018a) ‘Changes in ocean circulation can have profound impacts on [temperate] marine ecosystems by connecting regions and facilitating the entry and establishment of species in areas where they were unknown before (‘tropicalization’ ...) as well as the arrival of novel disease agents (medium agreement, limited evidence).’‘In the transition to 1.5°C, changes to water temperatures are expected to drive some species (e.g., plankton, fish) to relocate to higher latitudes and cause novel ecosystems to assemble | high | 2 | train |
3,625 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 14 | Other ecosystems (e.g., kelp forests, coral reefs) are relatively less able to move, however, and are projected to experience high rates of mortality and loss | very high | 3 | train |
3,626 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 15 | SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) Intertidal rocky shores ecosystems are highly sensitive to ocean warming, acidification and extreme heat exposure during low tide emersion | high | 2 | train |
3,627 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 17 | These ecosystems have low to moderate adaptive capacity, as they are highly sensitive to ocean temperatures and acidification.’ ‘Benthic species will continue to relocate in the intertidal zones and experience mass mortality events due to warming | high | 2 | train |
3,628 | AR6_WGII | 429 | 18 | Interactive effects between acidification and warming will exacerbate the negative impacts on rocky shore communities, causing a shift towards a less diverse ecosystem in terms of species richness and complexity, increasingly dominated by macroalgae | high | 2 | train |
3,629 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 1 | Warming is driving range contraction and extirpation at the warm edge of species’ ranges and expansions at the cold range edge | very high | 3 | train |
3,630 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 2 | Local declines in populations of kelp and other canopy-forming seaweeds driven by MHWs and other stressors have caused irreversible shifts to turf- or urchin-dominated ecosystems, with lower productivity and biodiversity (high confidence) (Filbee-Dexter and Scheibling, 2014; Filbee-Dexter and Wernberg, 2018; Rogers-Bennett and Catton, 2019; Beas-Luna et al., 2020; Stuart-Smith et al., 2021), ecosystems dominated by warm- affinity seaweeds or coral | high | 2 | train |
3,631 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 9 | While reducing non-climate drivers can help prevent kelp loss from warming and MHWs, there is limited potential for restoration of kelp ecosystems after transition to urchin-dominant ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
3,632 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 12 | Active reseeding of wild kelp populations through transplantation and propagation of warm-tolerant genotypes (Coleman et al., 2020b; Alsuwaiyan et al., 2021) can overcome low dispersal rates of many kelp species and facilitate effective restoration | medium | 1 | train |
3,633 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 13 | Building on the conclusions of SROCC, this assessment finds that kelp ecosystems are expected to decline and undergo changes in community structure in the future due to warming and increasing frequency and intensity of MHWs | high | 2 | train |
3,634 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 14 | Risk of loss of kelp ecosystems Table 3.5 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of kelp ecosystems Observations Projections AR5 (Wong et al., 2014) ‘Kelp forests have been reported to decline in temperate areas in both hemispheres, a loss involving climate change | high | 2 | train |
3,635 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 15 | Decline in kelp populations attributed to ocean warming has been reported in southern Australia and the north coast of Spain.’‘Kelp ecosystems will decline with the increased frequency of heatwaves and sea temperature extremes as well as through the impact of invasive subtropical species (high confidence).’ ‘Climate change will contribute to the continued decline in the extent of [...] kelps in the temperate zone (medium confidence) and the range of [...] kelps in the Northern Hemisphere will expand poleward (high confidence).’ SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018a) Observed movement of kelp ecosystems not assessed.‘In the transition to 1.5°C of warming, changes to water temperatures will drive some species (e.g., plankton, fish) to relocate to higher latitudes and cause novel ecosystems to assemble | high | 2 | train |
3,636 | AR6_WGII | 430 | 16 | Other ecosystems (e.g., kelp forests, coral reefs) are relatively less able to move, however, and are projected to experience high rates of mortality and loss (very high confidence).’ SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) ‘Kelp forests have experienced large-scale habitat loss and degradation of ecosystem structure and functioning over the past half century, implying a moderate to high level of risk at present conditions of global warming (high confidence).’ ‘The abundance of kelp forests has decreased at a rate of ~2% per year over the past half century, mainly due to ocean warming and marine heat waves [...], as well as from other human stressors (high confidence).’ ‘Changes in ocean currents have facilitated the entry of tropical herbivorous fish into temperate kelp forests decreasing their distribution and abundance (medium confidence).’ ‘The loss of kelp forests is followed by the colonisation of turfs, which contributes to the reduction in habitat complexity, carbon storage and diversity (high confidence).’Kelp forests will face moderate to high risk at temperatures above 1.5°C global sea surface warming | high | 2 | train |
3,637 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 2 | Although these coastal ecosystems have historically been sensitive to erosion-accretion cycles driven by sea level, drought and storms (high confidence) (Peteet et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018c; Jones et al., 2019b; Urrego et al., 2019; Hapsari et al., 2020; Zhao et al., 2020b), they were impacted for much of the 20th century primarily by non-climate drivers | very high | 3 | train |
3,638 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 3 | Nevertheless, the influence of climate-induced drivers has become more apparent over recent decades | medium | 1 | train |
3,639 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 4 | Estuarine biota are sensitive to warming | high | 2 | train |
3,640 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 5 | MHWs can be more severe in estuaries than in adjacent coastal seas (Lonhart et al., 2019), causing conspicuous impacts | very high | 3 | train |
3,641 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 6 | Relative SLR extends the upstream limit of saline waters (high confidence) (Harvey et al., 2020; Jiang et al., 2020) and alters tidal ranges | high | 2 | train |
3,642 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 7 | Elevated water levels also alter submergence patterns for intertidal habitat (high confidence) (Andres et al., 2019), moving high-water levels inland (high confidence) (Peteet et al., 2018; Appeaning Addo et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020e) and increasing the salinity of coastal water tables and soils | high | 2 | train |
3,643 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 8 | These processes favour inland and/or upstream migration of intertidal habitat, where it is unconstrained by infrastructure, topography or other environmental features | high | 2 | train |
3,644 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 11 | Overall, changing salinity and submergence patterns decrease the ability of shoreline vegetation to trap sediment (Xue et al., 2018), reducing accretion rates and increasing the vulnerability of estuarine shorelines to submergence by SLR and erosion by wave action | medium | 1 | train |
3,645 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 14 | The same phenomena alter salinity gradients, which are the primary drivers of estuarine species distributions | high | 2 | train |
3,646 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 16 | Acidification of estuarine water is a growing hazard (medium confidence) (Doney et al., 2020; Scanes et al., 2020a; Cai et al., 2021), and resident organisms display sensitivity to altered pH in laboratory settings | medium | 1 | train |
3,647 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 20 | Warming (including MHWs) and eutrophication interact to decrease estuarine oxygen content and pH, increasing the vulnerability of animals to MHWs (Brauko et al., 2020) and exacerbating the incidence and impact of dead zones | medium | 1 | train |
3,648 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 22 | All these impacts are projected to escalate under future climate change, but their magnitude depends on the amount of warming, the socioeconomic development pathway and implementation of adaptation strategies | medium | 1 | train |
3,649 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 23 | Modelling studies (Lopes et al., 2019; Rodrigues et al., 2019; White et al., 2019; Zhang and Li, 2019; Hong et al., 2020; Krvavica and Ružić, 2020; Liu et al., 2020e; Shalby et al., 2020) suggest that responses of estuaries to SLR will be complex and context dependent (Khojasteh et al., 2021), but project that salinity, tidal range, storm-surge amplitude, depth and stratification will increase with SLR (medium confidence), and that marine-dominated waters will penetrate farther upstream | high | 2 | train |
3,650 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 24 | Without careful management of freshwater inputs, sediment augmentation and/or the restoration of shorelines to more natural states, transformation and loss of intertidal areas and wetland vegetation will increase with SLR (high confidence) (Doughty et al., 2019; Leuven et al., 2019; Yu et al., 2019; Raw et al., 2020; Shih, 2020; Stein et al., 2020), with small, shallow microtidal estuaries being more vulnerable to impacts than deeper estuaries with well-developed sediments | medium | 1 | train |
3,651 | AR6_WGII | 431 | 25 | Warming and MHWs will enhance stratification and deoxygenation in shallow lagoons | medium | 1 | train |
3,652 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 3 | Since AR5 and SROCC, syntheses have emphasised that the vulnerability of rooted wetland ecosystems to climate-induced drivers is exacerbated by non-climate drivers (high confidence) (Elliott et al., 2019; Ostrowski et al., 2021; Williamson and Guinder, 2021) and climate Table 3.6 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of estuaries, deltas and coastal lagoons Observations Projections AR5 (Wong et al., 2014) Humans have impacted lagoons, estuaries and deltas (high to very high confidence), but non-climate drivers have been the primary agents of change | very high | 3 | train |
3,653 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 4 | In estuaries and lagoons, nutrient inputs have driven eutrophication, which has modified food-web structures (high confidence) and caused more-intense and longer-lasting hypoxia, more-frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms and enhanced emissions of nitrous oxide | high | 2 | train |
3,654 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 5 | In deltas, land-use changes and associated disruption of sediment dynamics and land subsidence have driven changes that have been exacerbated by relative SLR and episodic events, including river floods and oceanic storm surges | very high | 3 | train |
3,655 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 6 | Increased coastal flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusions have led to degradation of ecosystems (very high confidence).Future changes in climate impact-drivers such as warming, acidification, waves, storms, sea level rise (SLR) and runoff will have consequences for ecosystem function and services in lagoons and estuaries | high | 2 | train |
3,656 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 7 | Warming, changes in precipitation and changes in wind strength can interact to alter water-column salinity and stratification (medium confidence), which could impact water column oxygen content | medium | 1 | train |
3,657 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 8 | Land-use change, SLR and intensifying storms will alter deposition-erosion dynamics, impacting shoreline vegetation and altering turbidity | medium | 1 | train |
3,658 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 10 | The projected impacts of climate change on deltas are associated mainly with pluvial floods and SLR, which will amplify observed impacts of interacting climate and non-climate drivers | high | 2 | train |
3,659 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 11 | Estuaries, deltas and lagoons were not assessed in this report.Under both a 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, relative to the pre-industrial era, deltas are expected to be highly threatened by SLR and localised subsidence | high | 2 | test |
3,660 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 12 | The slower rate of SLR associated with 1.5°C of warming poses smaller risks of flooding and salinisation (high confidence), and facilitates greater opportunities for adaptation, including managing and restoring natural coastal ecosystems and infrastructure reinforcement | medium | 1 | train |
3,661 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 14 | Other feedbacks, such as landward migration of wetlands and the adaptation of infrastructure, remain important (medium confidence).’ SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) Increased seawater intrusion caused by SLR has driven upstream redistribution of marine biotic communities in estuaries (medium confidence) where physical barriers, such as the availability of benthic substrates, do not limit availability of suitable habitats | medium | 1 | train |
3,662 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 15 | Warming has driven poleward range shifts in species’ distributions among estuaries | medium | 1 | train |
3,663 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 16 | Interactions between warming, eutrophication and hypoxia have increased the incidence of harmful algal blooms (high confidence), pathogenic bacteria, such as Vibrio species, (low confidence) and mortalities of invertebrates and fish communities (medium confidence).‘Salinisation and expansion of hypoxic conditions will intensify in eutrophic estuaries, especially in mid and high latitudes with microtidal regimes (high confidence).’ ‘The effects of warming will be more pronounced in high-latitude and temperate shallow estuaries with limited exchange with the open ocean [...] and seasonality that already leads to dead zone development [...] (medium confidence).’ Interaction between SLR and changes in precipitation will have greater impacts on shallow than deep estuaries | medium | 1 | train |
3,664 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 17 | Estuaries characterised by large tidal exchanges and associated well-developed sediments will be more resilient to projected SLR and changes in river flow | medium | 1 | train |
3,665 | AR6_WGII | 432 | 18 | Human activities that inhibit sediment dynamics in coastal deltas increase their vulnerability to SLR | medium | 1 | train |
3,666 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 1 | Global rates of mangrove loss have been extensive but are slowing | high | 2 | train |
3,667 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 2 | From 2000 to 2010 mangrove loss averaged 0.16% yr–1, globally, but with greatest loss in Southeast Asia | high | 2 | train |
3,668 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 3 | Salt-marsh ecosystems have also suffered extensive losses (up to 60% in places since the 1980s), especially in developed and rapidly developing countries | medium | 1 | train |
3,669 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 4 | Similarly, 29% of seagrass meadows were lost from 1879–to 2006 due primarily to coastal development and degradation of water quality, with climate-change impacts escalating since 1990 | medium | 1 | train |
3,670 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 5 | Local examples of habitat stability or growth (e.g., de los Santos et al., 2019; Laengner et al., 2019; Sousa et al., 2019; Suyadi et al., 2019; Derolez et al., 2020; Goldberg et al., 2020; McKenzie and Yoshida, 2020) indicate some resilience to climate change in the absence of non-climate drivers | high | 2 | train |
3,671 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 6 | Nevertheless, previous declines have left wetland ecosystems more vulnerable to impacts from climate-induced drivers and non-climate drivers | high | 2 | train |
3,672 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 8 | Warming is allowing some, but not all (Rogers and Krauss, 2018; Saintilan et al., 2018), mangrove Table 3.7 | Summary of previous IPCC assessments of mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds Observations Projections AR5 (Wong et al., 2014) Seagrasses occurring close to their upper thermal limits are already stressed by climate change | high | 2 | train |
3,673 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 11 | As a result, interactions between climate change and non-climate drivers will continue to cause declines in estuarine vegetated systems | very high | 3 | train |
3,674 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 12 | SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018a) Vegetated blue carbon systems were not assessed in this report.Intact wetland ecosystems can reduce the adverse impacts of rising sea levels and intensifying storms by protecting shorelines | medium | 1 | train |
3,675 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 13 | Under 1.5°C of warming, natural sedimentation rates are projected to outpace SLR (medium confidence), but ‘other feedbacks, such as landward migration of wetlands and the adaptation of infrastructure, remain important (medium confidence).’ SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a; Oppenheimer et al., 2019) Coastal ecosystems, including salt marshes, mangroves, vegetated dunes and sandy beaches, can build vertically and expand laterally in response to SLR, though this capacity varies across sites | high | 2 | train |
3,676 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 15 | However, as a consequence of human actions that fragment wetland habitats and restrict landward migration, coastal ecosystems progressively lose their ability to adapt to climate-induced changes and provide ecosystem services, including acting as protective barriers | high | 2 | train |
3,677 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 16 | Examples include mangrove encroachment into subtropical salt marshes (high confidence) and contraction in extent of low-latitude seagrass meadows | high | 2 | train |
3,678 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 17 | Plants with low tolerance to flooding and extreme temperatures are particularly vulnerable, increasing the risk of extirpation | medium | 1 | train |
3,679 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 18 | Extreme-weather events, including heatwaves, droughts and storms, are causing mass mortalities and changes in community composition in coastal wetlands | high | 2 | train |
3,680 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 19 | Severe disturbance of wetlands or transitions among wetland community types can favour invasive species | medium | 1 | train |
3,681 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 20 | The degradation or loss of vegetated coastal ecosystems reduces carbon storage, with positive feedbacks to the climate system (high confidence).‘Seagrass meadows (high confidence) [...] will face moderate to high risk at temperature above 1.5°C global sea surface warming.’ ‘The transition from undetectable to moderate risk in salt marshes [...] takes place between 0.7°C–1.2°C of global sea surface warming (medium/high confidence), and between 0.9°C–1.8°C (medium confidence) in sandy beaches, estuaries and mangrove forests.’ ‘The ecosystems at moderate to high risk under future emission scenarios are mangrove forests (transition from moderate to high risk at 2.5°C–2.7°C of global sea surface warming), estuaries and sandy beaches (2.3°C–3.0°C) and salt marshes (transition from moderate to high risk at 1.8°C–2.7°C and from high to very high risk at 3.0°C–3.4°C) (medium confidence).’ ‘Global coastal wetlands will lose between 20–90% of their area depending on emissions scenario with impacts on their contributions to carbon sequestration and coastal protection | high | 2 | train |
3,682 | AR6_WGII | 433 | 21 | But SLR and warming are projected to drive global loss of up to 90% of vegetated wetlands by the end of the century under the RCP8.5 (medium confidence), especially if landward migration and sediment supply are limited by human modification of shorelines and river flows | medium | 1 | train |
3,683 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 1 | This expansion can affect species interactions (Guo et al., 2017; Friess et al., 2019), and enhance sediment accretion and carbon storage rates in some instances | medium | 1 | train |
3,684 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 2 | Drought, low sea levels and MHWs can cause significant die-offs among mangroves | medium | 1 | train |
3,685 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 3 | Seagrasses are similarly vulnerable to warming (high confidence) (Repolho et al., 2017; Duarte et al., 2018; Jayathilake and Costello, 2018; Savva et al., 2018), which has been attributed as one cause of observed changes in distribution and community structure | medium | 1 | train |
3,686 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 4 | MHWs, together with storm-driven turbidity and structural damage, can cause seagrass die-offs (high confidence) (Arias-Ortiz et al., 2018; Kendrick et al., 2019; Smale et al., 2019; Strydom et al., 2020), shifts to small, fast-growing species | high | 2 | train |
3,687 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 5 | The sensitivity of salt marshes and mangroves to RSLR depends on whether they accrete inorganic sediment and/or organic material at rates equivalent to rising water levels | very high | 3 | train |
3,688 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 6 | Otherwise, wetland ecosystems must migrate either inland or upstream, or face gradual submergence in deeper, increasingly saline water | very high | 3 | train |
3,689 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 8 | Submergence drives changes in community structure (high confidence) (Jones et al., 2019b; Yu et al., 2019; Douglass et al., 2020; Langston et al., 2020) and functioning (high confidence) (Charles et al., 2019; Buffington et al., 2020; Stein et al., 2020), and will eventually lead to extirpation of the most sensitive vegetation (medium confidence) (Schepers et al., 2017; Scalpone et al., 2020) and associated animals | low | 0 | train |
3,690 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 11 | On the basis of paleorecords (Table 3.8), we assess that mangroves and salt marshes are likely at high risk from future SLR, even under SSP1-1.9, with impacts manifesting in the mid- term | medium | 1 | train |
3,691 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 12 | Under SSP5-8.5, wetlands are very likely at high risk from SLR, with larger impacts manifesting before 2040 | medium | 1 | train |
3,692 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 13 | By 2100, these ecosystems are at high risk of impacts under all scenarios except SSP1-1.9 (high confidence), with impacts most severe along coastlines with gently sloping shorelines, limited sediment inputs, small tidal ranges and limited space for inland migration | very high | 3 | train |
3,693 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 16 | Other species, such as Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean, might lose as much as 75% of their habitat by 2050 under RCP8.5 and become functionally extinct | low | 0 | test |
3,694 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 17 | Observed impacts of MHWs (Kendrick et al., 2019; Strydom et al., 2020; Serrano et al., 2021) indicate that increasing intensity and frequency of MHWs (Section 3.2.2.1) will have escalating impacts on seagrass ecosystems | high | 2 | train |
3,695 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 18 | Habitat suitability can also be reduced by moderate RSLR, due to its impact on light attenuation | medium | 1 | train |
3,696 | AR6_WGII | 434 | 19 | Overall, warming will drive range shifts in wetland species (medium to high confidence), but SLR poses the greatest risk for mangroves and salt marshes, with significant losses projected under all future scenarios by mid-century | medium | 1 | train |
3,697 | AR6_WGII | 435 | 1 | Observations Projections AR5 (Wong et al., 2014) ‘Globally, beaches and dunes have in general undergone net erosion over the past century or longer.’ ‘Attributing shoreline changes to climate change is still difficult owing to the multiple natural and anthropogenic drivers contributing to coastal erosion.’‘In the absence of adaptation, beaches, sand dunes and cliffs currently eroding will continue to do so under increasing sea level | high | 2 | train |
3,698 | AR6_WGII | 435 | 2 | In many locations, finding sufficient sand to rebuild beaches and dunes artificially will become increasingly difficult and expensive as present supplies near project sites are depleted (high confidence).’ ‘In the absence of adaptation measures, beaches and sand dunes currently affected by erosion will continue to be affected under increasing sea levels (high confidence).’ SROCC (Bindoff et al., 2019a) Coastal ecosystems are already impacted by the combination of SLR, other climate-related ocean changes and adverse effects from human activities on ocean and land | high | 2 | train |
3,699 | AR6_WGII | 435 | 3 | Attributing such impacts to SLR, however, remains challenging due to the influence of other climate-related and non-climate drivers such as infrastructure development and human-induced habitat degradation | high | 2 | train |
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