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Ten years of "golden" economic performance may come to an end in 2005 with growth slowing markedly, City consultancy Deloitte has warned.
The UK economy could suffer a backlash from the slowdown in the housing market, triggering a fall in consumer spending and a rise in unemployment. Deloitte is forecasting economic growth of 2% this year, below Chancellor Gordon Brown's forecast of 3% to 3.5%. It also believes that interest rates will fall to 4% by the end of the year.
In its quarterly economic review, Deloitte said the UK economy had enjoyed a "golden period" during the past decade with unemployment falling to a near 30 year low and inflation at its lowest since the 1960s.
But it warned that this growth had been achieved at the expense of creating major "imbalances" in the economy. Deloitte's chief economic advisor Roger Bootle said: "The biggest hit of all is set to come from the housing market which has already embarked on a major slowdown. "Whereas the main driver of the economy in recent years has been robust household spending growth, this is likely to suffer as the housing market slowdown gathers pace."
Economic growth is likely to be constrained during the next few years by increased pressure on household budgets and rising taxes, Deloitte believes. Gordon Brown will need to raise about $10bn a year in order to sustain the public finances in the short term, the firm claims. This will result in a marked slowdown in growth in 2005 and 2006 compared to last year, when the economy expanded by 3.25%. However, Deloitte stressed that the slowdown was unlikely to have any major impact on retail prices while it expected the Bank of England to respond quickly to signs of the economy faltering. It expects a series of "aggressive" interest rate cuts over the next two years, with the cost of borrowing falling from its current 4.75% mark to 3.5% by the end of 2006. "Although 2005 may not be the year when things go completely wrong, it will probably mark the start of a more difficult period for the UK economy," Mr Bootle.
Industrial output falls in Japan
Japanese industrial output fell in October while unemployment rose, casting further doubt on the strength of the country's economic recovery.
Production dropped 1.6% in October, reflecting a decline in exports, while unemployment levels edged up 0.1% to 4.7%, slightly higher than forecast. The economy has grown for six quarters but growth slowed dramatically in the last quarter amid weaker global demand. Japan's government remains optimistic due to strong domestic demand.
Analysts had been forecasting a 0.1% rise in month on month industrial output.
According to figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the decline was led by a fall in demand for electronic parts for mobile phones and digital televisions. Although inventories fell 0.7% month on month, they were 36% higher than a year ago. "It's a sign that the economy's adjustment phase is stronger than expected," said Takashi Yamanaka, an economist with UFJ Bank. Japan downgraded its overall economic assessment earlier this month for the first time in a year.
Growth slowed to 0.3% in the quarter ending September 30, down from 6.3% in the first quarter of 2004. Experts believe the economy -which stagnated for most of the 1990s -may be entering a softer patch on the back of rising oil prices and the falling dollar. Japanese government officials played down the latest data, arguing that domestic consumer demand was still resilient. "The outlook for November is positive so I don't think one can say that conditions have worsened just because of the fall in October," said a METI official. Despite the rise in unemployment, jobless figures are still some way below historical highs of recent years. The comparatively weak economic date preyed on shares with the Nikkei down 1% in afternoon trade.
Jobs go at Oracle after takeover
Oracle has announced it is cutting about 5,000 jobs following the completion of its $10.3bn takeover of its smaller rival Peoplesoft last week.
The company said it would retain more than 90% of Peoplesoft product development and product support staff. The cuts will affect about 9% of the 55,000 staff of the combined companies. Oracle's 18-month fight to acquire Peoplesoft was one of the most drawn-out and hard-fought US takeover battles of recent times. The merged companies are set to be a major force in the enterprise software market, second only in size to Germany's SAP.
In a statement, Oracle said it began notifying staff of redundancies on Friday and the process would continue over the next 10 days. "By retaining the vast majority of Peoplesoft technical staff, Oracle will have the resources to deliver on the development and support commitments we have made to Peoplesoft customers over the last 18 months," Oracle's chief executive Larry Ellison said in a statement.
Correspondents say 6,000 job losses had been expected - and some suggest more cuts may be announced in future. They say Mr Ellison may be trying to placate Peoplesoft customers riled by Oracle's determined takeover strategy. Hours before Friday's announcement, there was a funereal air at Peoplesoft's headquarters, reported AP news agency. A Peoplesoft sign had been turned into shrine to the company, with flowers, candles and company memorabilia. "We're mourning the passing of a great company," the agency quoted Peoplesoft worker David Ogden as saying. Other employees said they would rather be sacked than work for Oracle. "The new company is going to be totally different," said Anil Aggarwal, Peoplesoft's director of database markets. "Peoplesoft had an easygoing, relaxed atmosphere. Oracle has an edgy, aggressive atmosphere that's not conducive to innovative production." On the news, Oracle shares rose 15 cents - 1.1% - on Nasdaq. In after-hours trading the shares did not move.
Beijingers fume over parking fees
Choking traffic jams in Beijing are prompting officials to look at reorganising car parking charges.
Car ownership has risen fast in recent years, and there are now two and a half million cars on the city's roads. The trouble is that the high status of car ownership is matched by expensive fees at indoor car parks, making motorists reluctant to use them. Instead roads are being clogged by drivers circling in search of a cheaper outdoor option. "The price differences between indoor and outdoor lots are unreasonable," said Wang Yan, an official from the Beijing Municipal Commission for Development and Reform quoted in the state-run China Daily newspaper. Mr Wang, who is in charge of collecting car parking fees, said his team would be looking at adjusting parking prices to close the gap. Indoor parking bays can cost up to 250% more than outdoor ones.
Sports fans who drive to matches may also find themselves the target of the commission's road rage. It wants them to use public transport, and is considering jacking up the prices of car parks near sports grounds. Mr Wang said his review team may scrap the relatively cheap hourly fee near such places and impose a higher flat rate during matches. Indoor parking may be costly, but it is not always secure. Mr Wang's team are also going to look into complaints from residents about poor service received in exchange for compulsory monthly fees of up to 400 yuan ($48; £26). The Beijing authorities decided two years ago that visiting foreign dignitaries' motorcades should not longer get motorcycle outriders as they blocked the traffic. Unclogging Beijing's increasingly impassable streets is a major concern for the Chinese authorities, who are building dozens of new roads to create a showcase modern city ahead of the 2008 Olympic Games.
GM issues 2005 profits warning
General Motors has warned that it expects earnings this year be lower than in 2004.
The world's biggest car maker is grappling with losses in its European business, and weak US sales. GM said higher healthcare costs in North America, and lower profits at its financial services subsidiary would hurt its performance in 2005. GM said it expects to meet its 2004 earnings targets "despite a tough competitive environment".
GM, whose brands include Buick, Cadillac and Chevrolet in the US and Opel, Saab and Vauxhall in Europe, is due to reveal 2004 earnings on 19 January.
It said it would deliver a shareholder payout of $6.0-$6.5 per share this year, as promised, but that next year's earnings per share would be lower, at between $4.0-$5.0. "We're following a roadmap that we believe will deliver strong results," said GM chief executive Rick Waggoner. GM said it was expecting "reduced financial losses" in Europe in 2005. It is in the midst of cutting 12,000 jobs - one fifth of the European total - in a bid to cut costs. The biggest job losses are in Germany. Its vehicle businesses have gained market share in three out of four regions in 2004, achieving record profitability in Asia Pacific and returning to profit in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. The car maker has diversified into financial services, and is extending the reach of General Motors Acceptance Corp (GMAC), which has said it may enter the home loans market. GMAC has been a strong contributor to profits in 2004 but GM said it will do less well this year, delivering net income of $2.5bn. "Attaining earnings of $10 a share remains GM's goal," the company said, adding it believes it can achieve this in 2007.
Sundance to honour foreign films
International films will be given the same prominence as US films at next year's Sundance Film Festival, with movies dominated by the theme of war.
The independent film festival will feature two new international cinema competitions, during its 20-30 January season in Utah. Forty-two films will debut at Sundance, including The Liberace of Baghdad by British director Sean McAllister. The prestigious festival was founded by actor Robert Redford in 1981.
"We have always had an international component, but from next year they will enter a jury competition," festival director Geoffrey Gilmore said. "We wanted to give world cinema more emphasis and have now put it on par with the American dramatic and documentary competitions." Twelve films competing in the new world cinema documentary category focus on countries and people under siege.
The Liberace of Baghdad features an Iraqi pianist hiding in a hotel as he waits for a visa, while Finnish film The Three Rooms of Melancholia looks at the war in Chechnya. Shake Hands With The Devil: The Journey of Romeo Dallaire tells of a UN mission to Rwanda during the 1994 genocide, while French-Israeli production Wall looks at Israel's controversial security wall separating it from the Palestinian territories. The 16 films competing in the new world cinema dramatic category include works from Germany, South Korea, Angola, China, Denmark and Australia.
Several Hollywood stars feature in the festival's American independent drama category, including Keanu Reeves and Benjamin Bratt. Vince Vaughn stars in quirky movie Thumbsucker while 21 Grams actress Naomi Watts plays a budding Hollywood actress in Ellie Parker. The top Grand Jury prize at this year's festival went to low budget sci-fi thriller Primer, written and directed by Shane Carruth. Morgan Spurlock earned the directing award for Super Size Me, which became an international box office hit.
TV station refuses adoption show
A TV station in the US has refused to show a controversial new series where adopted children try and pick their birth father - and win a cash prize.
The WRAZ-TV Fox affiliate in North Carolina was the only one of 182 stations to refuse Monday's show. Who's Your Daddy promises $100,000 (£52,000) to the contestant if she correctly identifies her father. It was met with protests by the National Council for Adoption, which said it "exploits" sensitive emotions. "It exploits the sensitive emotions of adoption," said Thomas Atwood, president of the National Council for Adoption. "It trivialises them. Adoption is a very personal, meaningful experience and it should not be commercialised like this." On the pre-taped programme, the contestant is presented with eight men who may or may not be her natural father.
If she picks the correct man from the line-up, the contestant wins the jackpot prize of US$100,000 (£52,590). However, if she picks the wrong man, then the impostor takes the money. Fox producers defended the show, saying it was a "positive experience". They have made six specials, though only one episode has so far been broadcast.
"The special was thoroughly vetted by our standards and practices department to ensure that it was appropriate for broadcast," said a Fox spokesman. "However, any network affiliate that feels the programming may be inappropriate for their individual market has the right to pre-empt the schedule." WRAZ-TV instead chose to air an independently-produced film, I Have Roots and Branches... Personal Reflections on Adoption, a documentary about families with adopted children. "We just don't think adoption is a game show," said Tommy Schenck, WRAZ-TV's general manager, though he said his decision had not been influenced by public protests.
Last Star Wars 'not for children'
The sixth and final Star Wars movie may not be suitable for young children, film-maker George Lucas has said.
He told US TV show 60 Minutes that Revenge of the Sith would be the darkest and most violent of the series. "I don't think I would take a five or six-year-old to this," he told the CBS programme, to be aired on Sunday. Lucas predicted the film would get a US rating advising parents some scenes may be unsuitable for under-13s. It opens in the UK and US on 19 May. He said he expected the film would be classified PG-13 - roughly equivalent to a British 12A rating.
The five previous Star Wars films have all carried less restrictive PG - parental guidance - ratings in the US. In the UK, they have all been passed U - suitable for all - with the exception of Attack of The Clones, which got a PG rating in 2002. Revenge of the Sith - the third prequel to the original 1977 Star Wars film - chronicles the transformation of the heroic Anakin Skywalker into the evil Darth Vader as he travels to a Hell-like planet composed of erupting volcanoes and molten lava. "We're going to watch him make a pact with the devil," Lucas said. "The film is much more dark, more emotional. It's much more of a tragedy."
Campaigners attack MTV 'sleaze'
MTV has been criticised for "incessant sleaze" by television indecency campaigners in the US.
The Parents Television Council (PTC), which monitors violence and sex on TV, said the cable music channel offered the "cheapest form" of programming. The group is at the forefront of a vociferous campaign to clean up American television. But a spokeswoman for MTV said it was "unfair and inaccurate" to single out MTV for criticism.
The PTC monitored MTV's output for 171 hours from 20 March to 27 March 2004, during the channel's Spring Break coverage. In its report - MTV Smut Peddlers: Targeting Kids with Sex, Drugs and Alcohol - the PTC said it witnessed 3,056 flashes of nudity or sexual situations and 2,881 verbal references to sex. Brent Bozell, PTC president and conservative activist said: "MTV is blatantly selling raunchy sex to kids. "Compared to broadcast television programmes aimed at adults, MTV's programming contains substantially more sex, foul language and violence - and MTV's shows are aimed at children as young as 12. "There's no question that TV influences the attitudes and perceptions of young viewers, and MTV is deliberately marketing its raunch to millions of innocent children."
The watchdog decided to look at MTV's programmes after Janet Jackson's infamous "wardrobe malfunction" at last year's Super Bowl. The breast-baring incident generated 500,000 complaints and CBS - which is owned by the same parent company as MTV - was quick to apologise. MTV spokeswoman Jeannie Kedas said the network follows the same standards as broadcasters and reflects the culture and what its viewers are interested in. "It's unfair and inaccurate to paint MTV with that brush of irresponsibility," she said. "We think it's underestimating young people's intellect and level of sophistication." Ms Kedas also highlighted the fact MTV won an award in 2004 for the Fight for Your Rights series that focused on issues such as sexual health and tolerance.
EastEnders 'is set for US remake'
Plans to create a US soap based on the BBC's EastEnders have reportedly been drawn up by the Fox TV network.
EastEnders' head writer Tony Jordan and music mogul Simon Fuller are involved in the project, according to reports in the Hollywood Reporter trade newspaper. It said scripts have been commissioned for a series about a community of working class people in of Chicago. The original EastEnders was pulled from BBC America last year after it proved a failure in the ratings. US versions of other British hits have proved less successful across the Atlantic.
BBC comedy Coupling was remade with a US cast, but lost its primetime slot on the NBC network due to disappointing ratings. At home, EastEnders has been facing its own ratings battle, recently losing out to rival ITV soap Emmer dale. Primetime soaps on US television have made a recent comeback, following the success of ABC serial Desperate Housewives. The series takes a "darkly comedic" look at the goings-on of a group of characters living in the suburbs.
UK TV channel rapped for CSI ad
TV channel Five has been criticised for sending "offensive" and "threatening" advertising material to viewers for a new show about murder scene scientists.
Five mailed thousands of fake dossiers including photos of murder victims and an e-mail suggesting the recipient was being stalked by a serial killer. Following complaints, the Advertising Standards Authority contacted Five to cease promotion of crime show CSI:NY. Five admitted it had sent out 55,000 promotion packs but had now stopped. The promotion material was sent in brown envelope of the type used by investigators in the series, a spin-off from the highly successful CSI: Crime Scene Investigation series, which also runs on Five. The pack also features pictures of forensic evidence from a crime scene and a wanted poster, which did have a CSI:NY logo printed in large at the bottom.
Five said it had received 100 complaints but that it had been surprised at the reaction because it was "obvious this material is promoting a drama". A Five spokesman said: "In light of the efforts we have made to make the nature of the contents so transparent we are surprised a very small minority of recipients have mistaken it as anything else. "Everyone who was sent this promotion has expressed an interest in receiving details about this particular genre of programming on various websites. "We have also received emails and calls from recipients praising the originality and imagination of the campaign."
'Comeback' show for Friends star
Friends actress Lisa Kudrow is to play the lead role in a new series about a one-time sitcom star, according to the Hollywood reporter.