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With milder temperatures expected to continue in the northern parts of the US over the next few days at least, analysts have said the price of oil may fall further - even if the decline was only temporary. "Weather has been the Achilles' heel of this market," said ABN AMRO analyst John Brady. "But it is winter in the northeast. Eventually we'll get another cold blast." Despite a fall of more than $12 a barrel from the record highs reached in late October, the price of crude oil remains almost 30% higher than year-ago levels. Prices rose last week after militant attacks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, briefly renewed fears that the supply chain might be broken in the world's leading crude exporter. "The market was panicked but fears essentially evaporated... since there was no follow-up," said Deborah White, senior economist for energy at SG Securities in Paris.
Weak end-of-year sales hit Next
Next has said its annual profit will be £5m lower than previously expected because its end-of-year clearance sale has proved disappointing.
"Clearance rates in our end-of-season sale have been below our expectations," the company said. The High Street retailer said it now expected to report annual profits of between £415m and £425m ($779m-798m). Next's shares fell more than 3% following the release of the trading statement.
Next chief executive Simon Wolfson admitted that festive sales were "below where we would expect a normal Christmas to be", but said sales should still top analyst expectations.
Among areas where Next could have done better, Mr Wolfson said menswear ranges were "a little bit too similar to the previous year". Mr Wolfson also said that disappointing pre-Christmas sales were "more to do with the fact that we went in with too much stock rather than (the fact that) demand wasn't there for the stock". Next's like-for-like store sales in the five months from 3 August to 24 December were up 2.9% on a year earlier. This figure is for existing Next stores, which were unaffected by new Next store openings. Like-for-like sales growth at the 49 Next stores directly affected by new store openings in their locality was 0.5%.
Overall sales across both its retail and mail order divisions were up 12.4%, Next said. Its Next Directory mail order division saw sales rise 13.4% during the five-month period. "In terms of all the worries about their trading pre-Christmas, it's a result," said Nick Bubb, an analyst at Evolution Securities. "Profits of around £420m would be well within the comfort zone." However, one dealer, who asked not to be named, told Reuters the seasonal sales performance was "not what people had hoped for". "Christmas has been tough for the whole sector, and this is one of the best retailers," he said. Next's trading statement comes a day after House of Fraser and Woolworths disappointed investors with their figures.
Tate & Lyle boss bags top award
Tate & Lyle's chief executive has been named European Businessman of the Year by a leading business magazine.
Iain Ferguson was awarded the title by US publication Forbes for returning one of the UK's "venerable" manufacturers to the country's top 100 companies. The sugar group had been absent from the FTSE 100 for seven years until Mr Ferguson helped it return to growth. Tate's shares have leapt 55% this year, boosted by firming sugar prices and sales of its artificial sweeteners.
"After years of a sagging stock price and a seven-year hiatus from the FTSE 100, one of Britain's venerable manufacturers has returned to the vaunted index," Forbes said. Mr Ferguson took the helm at the company in 2003, after spending most of his career at consumer goods giant Unilever. Tate & Lyle, which was an original member of the historic FT-30 index in 1935, operates more than 41 factories and 20 more additional production facilities in 28 countries. Previous winners of the Forbes award include Royal Bank of Scotland chief executive Fred Goodwin and former Vodafone boss Chris Gent.
Deutsche Boerse set to 'woo' LSE
Bosses of Deutsche Boerse and the London Stock Exchange are to meet amid talk that a takeover bid for the LSE will be raised to £1.5bn ($2.9bn).
Last month, the German exchange tabled a 530 pence-per-share offer for LSE, valuing it at £1.3bn. Paris-based Euronext, owner of Liffe in London, has also said it is interested in bidding for LSE. Euronext is due to hold talks with LSE this week and it is reported to be ready to raise £1.4bn to fund a bid. Euronext chief Jean-Francois Theodore is scheduled to meet his LSE counterpart Clara Furse on Friday. Deutsche Boerse chief Werner Seifert is meeting Ms Furse on Thursday, in the third meeting between the two exchanges since the bid approach in December.
The LSE rejected Deutsche Boerse's proposed £1.3bn offer in December, saying it undervalued the business.
But it agreed to leave the door open for talks to find out whether a "significantly-improved proposal" would be in the interests of LSE's shareholders and customers. In the meantime, Euronext, which combines the Paris, Amsterdam and Lisbon stock exchanges, also began talks with the LSE. In a statement on Thursday, Euronext said any offer was likely to be solely in cash, but added that: "There can be no assurances at this stage that any offer will be made." A deal with either bidder would create the biggest stock market operator in Europe and the second biggest in the world after the New York Stock Exchange.
According to the FT, in its latest meeting Deutsche Boerse will adopt a charm offensive to woo the London exchange. The newspaper said the German suitor will offer to manage a combined cash and equities market out of London and let Ms Furse take the helm. Other reports this week said the Deutsche Boerse might even consider selling its Luxembourg-based Clearstream unit - the clearing house that processes securities transactions. Its ownership of Clearstream was seen as the main stumbling block to a London-Frankfurt merger. LSE shareholders feared a Deutsche Boerse takeover would force them to use Clearstream, making it difficult for them to negotiate for lower transaction fees.
High fuel prices hit BA's profits
British Airways has blamed high fuel prices for a 40% drop in profits.
Reporting its results for the three months to 31 December 2004, the airline made a pre-tax profit of £75m ($141m) compared with £125m a year earlier. Rod Eddington, BA's chief executive, said the results were "respectable" in a third quarter when fuel costs rose by £106m or 47.3%. BA's profits were still better than market expectation of £59m, and it expects a rise in full-year revenues.
To help offset the increased price of aviation fuel, BA last year introduced a fuel surcharge for passengers.
In October, it increased this from £6 to £10 one-way for all long-haul flights, while the short-haul surcharge was raised from £2.50 to £4 a leg. Yet aviation analyst Mike Powell of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says BA's estimated annual surcharge revenues - £160m - will still be way short of its additional fuel costs - a predicted extra £250m. Turnover for the quarter was up 4.3% to £1.97bn, further benefiting from a rise in cargo revenue. Looking ahead to its full year results to March 2005, BA warned that yields - average revenues per passenger - were expected to decline as it continues to lower prices in the face of competition from low-cost carriers. However, it said sales would be better than previously forecast. "For the year to March 2005, the total revenue outlook is slightly better than previous guidance with a 3% to 3.5% improvement anticipated," BA chairman Martin Broughton said. BA had previously forecast a 2% to 3% rise in full-year revenue.
It also reported on Friday that passenger numbers rose 8.1% in January. Aviation analyst Nick Van den Brul of BNP Paribas described BA's latest quarterly results as "pretty modest". "It is quite good on the revenue side and it shows the impact of fuel surcharges and a positive cargo development, however, operating margins down and cost impact of fuel are very strong," he said. Since the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States, BA has cut 13,000 jobs as part of a major cost-cutting drive. "Our focus remains on reducing controllable costs and debt whilst continuing to invest in our products," Mr Eddington said. "For example, we have taken delivery of six Airbus A321 aircraft and next month we will start further improvements to our Club World flat beds." BA's shares closed up four pence at 274.5 pence.
US interest rate rise expected
US interest rates are expected to rise for the fifth time since June following the US Federal Reserve's latest rate-setting meeting later on Tuesday.
Borrowing costs are tipped to rise by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25%. The move comes as a recovery in the US economy, the world's biggest, shows signs of robustness and sustainability. The dollar's record-breaking decline, meanwhile, has spooked markets and along with high oil prices has raised concerns about the pace of inflation. "We are seeing evidence that inflation is moving higher," said Ken Kim, an analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research. "It's not a risk, it's actually happening." Mr Kim added that borrowing costs could rise further.
The Fed has said that it will move in a "measured" way to combat price growth and lift interest rates from their 40-year lows that were prompted by sluggish US and global growth.
With the economic picture now looking more rosy, the Fed has implemented quarter percentage point rises in June, August, September and November. Although the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.9% in the three months to September, analysts warn that Fed has to be careful not to move too aggressively and take the wind out of the recovery's sails. Earlier this month figures showed that job creation is still weak, while consumer confidence is subdued. "I think the Fed feels it has a fair amount of flexibility," said David Berson, chief economist at Fannie Mae. "While inflation has moved up, it hasn't moved up a lot." "If economic growth should subside... the Fed would feel it has the flexibility to pause in its tightening. "But if economic growth picked up and caused core inflation to rise a little more quickly, I think the Fed would be prepared to tighten more quickly as well."
Weak dollar trims Cadbury profits
The world's biggest confectionery firm, Cadbury Schweppes, has reported a modest rise in profits after the weak dollar took a bite out of its results.
Underlying pre-tax profits rose 1% to £933m ($1.78bn) in 2004, but would have been 8% higher if currency movements were stripped out. The owner of brands such as Dairy Milk, Dr Pepper and Snapple generates more than 80% of its sales outside the UK. Cadbury said it was confident it would hit its targets for 2005. "While the external commercial environment remains competitive, we are confident that we have the strategy, brands and people to deliver within our goal ranges in 2005," said chief executive Todd Stitzer.
The modest profit rise had been expected by analysts after the company said in December that the poor summer weather had hit soft drink sales in Europe.
Cadbury said its underlying sales were up by 4% in 2004. Growth was helped by its confectionery brands - including Cadbury, Trident and Halls - which enjoyed a "successful" year, with like-for-like sales up 6%. Drinks sales were up 2% with strong growth in US carbonated soft drinks, led by Dr Pepper and diet drinks, offset by the weaker sales in Europe. Cadbury added that its Fuel for Growth cost-cutting programme had saved £75m in 2004, bringing total cost savings to £100m since the scheme began in mid-2003. The programme is set to close 20% of the group's factories and shed 10% of the workforce. Cadbury Schweppes employs more than 50,000 people worldwide, with about 7,000 in the UK.
Continental 'may run out of cash'
Shares in Continental Airlines have tumbled after the firm warned it could run out of cash.
In a filing to US regulators the airline warned of "inadequate liquidity" if it fails to reduce wage costs by $500m by the end of February. Continental also said that, if it did not make any cuts, it expects to lose "hundreds of millions of dollars" in 2005 in current market conditions. Failure to make cutbacks may also push it to reduce its fleet, the group said. Shares in the fifth biggest US carrier had fallen 6.87% on the news to $10.44 by 1830 GMT. "Without the reduction in wage and benefit costs and a reasonable prospect of future profitability, we believe that our ability to raise additional money through financings would be uncertain," Continental said in its filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Airlines have faced tough conditions in recent years, amid terrorism fears since the 11 September World Trade Centre attack in 2001. But despite passengers returning to the skies, record-high fuel costs and fare wars prompted by competition from low cost carriers have taken their toll. Houston-based Continental now has debt and pension payments of nearly $984m which it must pay off this year. The company has been working to streamline its operations - and has managed to save $1.1bn in costs without cutting jobs. Two weeks' ago the group also announced it would be able to shave a further $48m a year from its costs with changes to wage and benefits for most of its US-based management and clerical staff.
Mixed Christmas for US retailers
US retailers posted mixed results for December - with luxury retailers faring well while many others were forced to slash prices to lift sales.
Upscale department store Nordstrom said same store sales were 9.3% higher than during the same period last year. Trendy youth labels also sold well, with sales jumping 28% at young women's clothing retailer Bebe Stores and 32.2% at American Eagle Outfitters. But Wal-Mart only saw its sales rise after it cut prices. The company saw a 3% rise in December sales, less than the 4.3% rise seen a year earlier.
Customers at the world's biggest retailer are generally seen to be the most vulnerable to America's economic woes.
Commentators claim many have cut back on spending amid uncertainty over job security, while low and middle-income Americans have reined in spending in the face of higher gasoline prices. Analysts said Wal-Mart faced a "stand-off" with shoppers, stepping up its discounts as the festive season wore on, as consumers waited longer to get the best bargains. However, experts added that if prices had not been cut across the sector, Christmas sales - which account for nearly 23% of annual retail sales - would have been far worse. "So far, we are faring better than expected, but the results are still split," Ken Perkins, an analyst at research firm RetailMetrics LLC, told Associated Press. "Stores that have been struggling over the last couple of months appear to be continuing that trend. And for stores that have been doing well over the last several months, December was a good month." Overall, December sales are forecast to rise by 4.5% to $220bn - less than the 5.1% increase seen a year earlier.
One discount retailer to fare well in December was Costco Wholesale, which continued a recent run of upbeat results with a better-than-expected 8% jump in same store sales. However, the losers were many and varied. Home furnishings store Pier 1 Imports saw its same store sales sink by a larger-than-forecast 8.8% as it battled fierce competition. Leading electronics chain Best Buy, meanwhile, missed its sales target of a 3-5% rise in sales, turning in a 2.5% increase over the Christmas period. Accessory vendor Claire's Stores also suffered as an expected last minute shopping rush never materialised, leaving its same store sales 5% higher, compared to a 6% rise last year. Jeweller Zale also felt little Christmas cheer with December sales down 0.7% on the same month last year. "This was not a good period for retailers or shoppers. We saw a dearth of exciting, new items," Kurt Barnard, president of industry forecaster Retail Consulting Group, said. However, one beneficiary of the desertion of the High Street is expected to be online stores. According to a survey by Goldman Sachs & Co, Harris Interactive and Neilsen/Net Ratings sales surged 25% over the holiday season to $23.2bn.
Steady job growth continues in US
The US created fewer jobs than expected in December, but analysts said that the dip in hiring was not enough to derail the world's biggest economy.
According to Labor Department figures, 157,000 new jobs were added last month. That took 2004's total to 2.2 million, the best showing in five years. Job creation was one of last year's main concerns for the US economy. While worries still remain, the conditions are set for steady growth in 2005, analysts said. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.4% in December, and about 200,000 jobs will need to be created each month if that figure is to drop.
"It was a respectable report," said Michael Moran, analyst at Daiwa Securities.
"Payroll growth in December was a little lighter than the consensus forecast, but we had upward revisions to the prior two months and an increase in manufacturing employment." "Manufacturing is a cyclical area of the economy and if it's showing job growth, it's a good indication that the economy is on a solid growth track." That means that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its policy of raising interest rates. The Fed lifted borrowing costs five times last year to 2.25%, citing evidence the US economic recovery was becoming more robust.
Job creation was one of last year's main concerns for the US economy, and proved to be a main topic of debate in the US presidential election. While demand for workers is far from booming, the conditions are set for steady growth. "Overall, compared to the previous year it looks great, it just keeps going stronger and stronger and I expect that to be the case" in 2005, said Kurt Karl, economist at Swiss Re in New York. Meanwhile, economists cautioned against reading too much into data from the Federal Reserve showing an unexpected $8.7bn drop in consumer debt in November. A fall in consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of all US economic activity, could help limit the extent of any future interest rate rises. But economists said there could be a number of reasons for a fall in the borrowing, which include credit cards and personal loans, while noting that such figures can vary on a month-to-month basis.
Barclays shares up on merger talk
Shares in UK banking group Barclays have risen on Monday following a weekend press report that it had held merger talks with US bank Wells Fargo.
A tie-up between Barclays and California-based Wells Fargo would create the world's fourth biggest bank, valued at $180bn (£96bn). Barclays has declined to comment on the report in the Sunday Express, saying it does not respond to market speculation. The two banks reportedly held talks in October and November 2004.
Barclays shares were up 8 pence, or 1.3%, at 605 pence by late morning in London on Monday, making it the second biggest gainer in the FTSE 100 index. UK banking icon Barclays was founded more than 300 years ago; it has operations in over 60 countries and employs 76,200 staff worldwide. Its North American divisions focus on business banking, whereas Wells Fargo operates retail and business banking services from 6,000 branches. In 2003, Barclays reported a 20% rise in pre-tax profits to £3.8bn, and it has recently forecast similar gains in 2004, predicting that full year pre-tax profits would rise 18% to £4.5bn. Wells Fargo had net income of $6.2bn in its last financial year, a 9% increase on the previous year, and revenues of $28.4bn. Barclays was the focus of takeover speculation in August, when it was linked to Citigroup, though no bid has ever materialised. Stock market traders were sceptical that the latest reports heralded a deal. "The chief executive would be abandoning his duty if he didn't talk to rivals, but a deal doesn't seem likely," Reuters quoted one trader as saying.
UK Coal plunges into deeper loss
Shares in UK Coal have fallen after the mining group reported losses had deepened to £51.6m in 2004 from £1.2m.
The UK's biggest coal producer blamed geological problems, industrial action and "operating flaws" at its deep mines for its worsening fortunes. The South Yorkshire company, led by new chief executive Gerry Spindler, said it hoped to return to profit in 2006. In early trade on Thursday, its shares were down 10% at 119 pence. UK Coal said it was making "significant progress" in shaking up the business. It had introduced new wage structures, a new daily maintenance regime for machinery at its mines and methods to continue mining in adverse conditions. The company said these actions should "significantly uplift earnings". It expected 2005 to be a "transitional year" and to return to profitability in 2006.