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White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday the House Republican vote to boot Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar off the House Foreign Affairs Committee was a "political stunt" and a "disservice to the American people."
"Look, the way that we see this, it's a political stunt, much like House Republicans' unjust removal of other leading Democrats from key committees in recent weeks," Jean-Pierre said at Thursday’s press briefing. "And it is a disservice to the American people."
The resolution to remove Omar was approved in a 218-211 vote Thursday as Republicans said her history of antisemitic remarks disqualified her from the committee. Omar, along with her progressive colleagues, suggested the Republican opposition to her stems from racism.
"I am Muslim, I am an immigrant, and interestingly, from Africa," Omar said. "Is anyone surprised that I am being targeted? Is anyone surprised that I am somehow deemed unworthy to speak about American foreign policy, or that they see me as a powerful voice that needs to be silenced?"
Omar was condemned by Democrats and Republicans alike in 2021 when she described Israel as an "apartheid state" and compared that nation, along with the U.S., to Hamas and the Taliban. A dozen Democratic Jewish members of the House said Omar’s comment was "as offensive as it is misguided." Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif, criticized the comments along with Democratic leadership in the House, which Omar responded to with an apology.
"Antisemitism is real, and I am grateful for Jewish allies and colleagues who are educating me on the painful history of antisemitic tropes," Omar said.
Jean-Pierre cited Omar’s public apologies as reason to keep her on the committee.
"What we believe is Congresswoman Omar is a highly respected member of Congress," Jean-Pierre said Thursday. "She has apologized for her comments she made in the past."
Omar had a history of antisemitic remarks before her 2021 comments that drew criticism from her colleagues. She tweeted in 2019 that "It’s all about the Benjamins, baby," in reference to political support for Israel, which she later described as "allegiance to a foreign country." The same year, she described 9/11 as "some people did something."
"Israel has hypnotized the world, may Allah awaken the people and help them see the evil doings of Israel," she tweeted in 2012. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The explosiosn at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo airbases, if confirmed as Ukraine’s, would mark its deepest attack so far into Russia and against key military facilities used in the Kremlin’s war. Engels-2 airbaseEngels-2 airbaseThe Soviet-era Engels-2 airbase, named after the Communist philosopher, Friedrich Engels, is home to Russia’s 121st heavy bomber aviation regiment, which includes the Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bomber squadrons whose missiles have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.“Based on the location of the airbase, its jets have played a major role in the recent bombings in Ukraine,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, of the Saratov region facility – some 450 miles east of Ukraine.Lee said any Ukrainian attack on the Engels-2 base was likely to be aimed at disrupting Russian plans to strike Ukrainian infrastructure. “Ukraine has been warning for weeks now that Russia was preparing for a fresh wave of missile attacks on its energy grid. This could have been a pre-emptive strike,” he said.Engels-2 airbaseCiting satellite images from Engels-2, der Spiegel last month reported that Russia was preparing a new large-scale missile attack on Ukraine.Lee estimated that Russia kept about 15 to 16 Tu-95MS bombers at the Engels-2 airbase and 15 Tu-160s, which represents the largest share of the country’s Tu-160 arsenal.Gleb Irisov, a former Russian air force lieutenant who left the military in 2020, described Engels-2 as a “key airfield for the country’s strategic aviation”.“If indeed Ukraine managed to hit the base, it shows the country is making a lot of progress in their ability to reach bases far away from the battlefield.”Dyagilevo airbaseDyagilevo airbaseThe airbase in Dyagilevo, less than 150 miles from Moscow, also houses the 121st heavy bomber aviation regiment whose jets are believed to have attacked Ukraine.It also serves as the base for Russia’s only Il-78 tanker regiment, a strategically vital division responsible for the air-to-air refuelling of the country’s military aviation.“Destruction of strategic bombers will undoubtedly get more attention, but, if Russia loses Il-78 tanker aircraft, that might be the biggest issue for Moscow,” Lee said. “The production of new tanker aircraft is notoriously slow so this could turn out to be the most damaging part for Russia.”Lee said that one of the main issues for the Russian air force was that many of its aircraft were not housed in hangars, leaving them exposed to attacks.“It is clear that Russia didn’t prepare plans to defend airbases deep inside the country,” Lee said.“Despite the fact that this isn’t the first attack on Russian soil, Moscow has been very slow to react and protect its jets.”The explosionsWhile it was not immediately clear what caused the explosion at either military base, Baza, a Russian media outlet with sources in the security services, reported that the Russian airfield at Engels-2 was attacked by a drone.Lee believes the drones would have been launched by Ukraine from within Russian territory. “The unmanned aerial vehicle attacks have a relatively short range and they wouldn’t have been able to fly all that way from Ukraine,” Lee said.The explosion at the Engels-2 airfield led to anger amongst some prominent Russian pro-war bloggers who blamed the country’s military for the inability to protect its airbases.“The sheep in the rear continue to demonstrate their absolute unsuitability … Even now, the airfields with strategic aviation are not covered by air defence systems,” Voenniy Osvedomitel, a popular commentator, wrote on his Telegram channel. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Zachary BasuIllustration: Sarah Grillo/AxiosHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) publicly confirmed Tuesday what many in Washington and Europe privately fear: a Republican-controlled House could shut off the spigot funding Ukraine's efforts to defend itself against Russia's invasion.Why it matters: Unlike aggressive oversight hearings or political messaging bills, a Republican majority's approach to Ukraine would reverberate far beyond the Beltway. A reduction or halt in U.S. military aid would create a geopolitical earthquake with the potential to alter the trajectory of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war. What's happening: Even House Republicans who have been outspoken about supporting Ukraine — including McCarthy, who this week compared Putin to Hitler — say there has been a noticeable shift away from what was once a broad bipartisan consensus."I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it," McCarthy said in an interview with Punchbowl News."I've noticed it. You see it a little bit on social media, you see it with some of our members," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), though he added he doesn't believe the majority of the conference shares those views. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) said the shift is likely being driven by feedback from constituents, telling Axios: "When people are seeing a 13% increase in grocery prices; energy, utility bills doubling ... if you're a border community and you're being overrun by migrants and fentanyl, Ukraine is the furthest thing from your mind."State of play: In May, 57 House Republicans voted "no" on a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. That number is poised to rise considerably, especially if more skeptical Republican candidates are swept into Congress in a GOP wave."After the $40 billion, there were a lot of Republicans saying, 'This is the last time I'm going to support Ukraine funding,'" said one senior House Republican."Another billion to Ukraine and 87,000 new IRS agents," tweeted Texas candidate Wesley Hunt in August. "At this rate we should at least make them the 51st state so they can start paying some federal income tax."The intrigue: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a steadfast Ukraine supporter who is also a vocal critic of his party's conservative flank, said Republican leadership has been "tiptoeing away" from supporting Ukraine for political reasons."Kevin McCarthy, let's be clear ... his whole existence right now is to please enough people to win the speakership," Kinzinger told Axios.A GOP congressional aide echoed that sentiment and said concern about the House is "overstated," suggesting McCarthy is "counting votes for Speaker and doesn't want to rock the boat ahead of time."Behind the scenes: Even if McCarthy is just posturing, conservative factions in Congress are actively working to oppose future aid spending — buoyed by a powerful complex of outside groups that includes the Heritage Foundation, the Koch network, FreedomWorks and the Center for Renewing America.Dan Caldwell, a senior adviser to Concerned Veterans for America and vice president for foreign policy at Stand Together, both part of the Koch network, told Axios his groups have been sending polling to lawmakers and "activated our grassroots army to lobby members to support a better Ukraine policy."Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the 158-member Republican Study Committee, told Axios: "RSC believes you can’t lead abroad when you’re so weak at home. Our GOP agenda in the new Majority needs to secure our own border and get America back on our feet by addressing energy cost and inflation."What to watch: The party is united on at least one position when it comes to Ukraine: there should be a thorough accounting of every dollar sent."What Republicans want to see is more accountability and oversight, and also to make sure it's going for the right purpose," said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the top Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee and another vocal Ukraine supporter.McCaul added that his colleagues have grumbled about the U.S. footing the bill to a greater degree than other large NATO allies, like Germany and France.Go deeper | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A sign reading 'Kaliningrad' stands atop the city's south railway station.Harry Engels | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesA new front in tensions between Russia and NATO has opened up after one of the Western military alliance's members, Lithuania, banned the transit of some goods coming from Russia to its exclave Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.Russia has vowed to retaliate over what it described as the "hostile actions" of Lithuania, warning of "serious" consequences, while NATO members have reiterated their support for the country.Here's a brief guide to what's going on, and why it matters as the Russia-Ukraine conflict rumbles on in the background.What's happened?Lithuania said last week that it would ban the transit of some EU-sanctioned goods coming from Russia across its territory to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.The government said the blockade would apply to all EU-sanctioned goods coming from the mainland via rail, effectively blocking the transit of metals, coal, construction materials and high-technology products to the Russian sea port.Lithuania said that its decision was taken after consultation with the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, and that it's enforcing sanctions on Russia that were imposed following the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.Russia responded to Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, by calling the move an "unprecedented" and "hostile" act, with its foreign ministry issuing a statement Tuesday in which it said "if in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests."What is Kaliningrad?Kaliningrad is a small Russian exclave located on the Baltic Sea and sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. It is home to around 487,000 people and covers an area of around 86 square miles.Once part of the German empire, it was seized by Soviet troops from Nazi Germany in 1945 and has remained in Russian hands ever since, becoming an important sea port for Russia allowing it straightforward access to the Baltic Sea. Indeed, the Kaliningrad Oblast (or province) acts as the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet.The fleet holds regular military drills in the Black Sea, having completed 10 days of exercises on June 19 that involved 60 warships and 10,000 military personnel. A disused border crossing point to Russia is seen on April 15, 2022 in Nida, Lithuania. Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, on the shore of the Baltic Sea, is sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland and is the Baltic coasts most strategic transport and trade port.Paulius Peleckis | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesLithuania's ban on the transit of some EU-sanctioned goods, announced last Friday and implemented on Saturday, prompted panic buying in Kaliningrad. The region's governor, Anton Alikhanov, insisted Russia would increase the number of cargo ships transiting goods from St. Petersburg to the exclave over the remainder of the year.What could happen next?It's uncertain how Moscow will react to Lithuania's move.On Monday, President Vladimir Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, called the move "illegal" and said "this decision is really unprecedented.""The situation is more than serious … We need a serious in-depth analysis in order to work out our response," he added.Lithuania's Foreign Ministry issued a statement Monday saying "the transit of passengers and non-sanctioned goods to and from the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania continues uninterrupted."It added that Lithuania "has not imposed any unilateral, individual, or additional restrictions on the transit" and that it is consistently implementing EU sanctions.Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, also backed Lithuania on Monday, saying he was worried about what form the retaliation might take while he defended Vilnius' position. "Certainly I am always worried about the Russian retaliations" he said, but he insisted there was no "blockade.""Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions and only applies the European Union sanctions" he said, saying any reports in Russia that Lithuania was implementing its own sanctions was "pure propaganda."Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, commented Tuesday that "it's fair to say that Kaliningrad is a strategic imperative for Russia" noting that defending and sustaining it certainly is."Russia will react for sure, the only question is what that will be ... [and] what Russia could do militarily," he noted.Why does it matter?Tensions between Russia and NATO are already heightened as a result of the war in Ukraine and the move by Lithuania has ratcheted those up further, potentially putting a NATO country (and the entire alliance) in line for a direct confrontation with Russia.A key pillar of the NATO alliance is the concept of collective defense: If one is attacked, it is considered an attack on the entire group with the members committed to protecting each other.While NATO has been helping Ukraine to fight Russia's invasion, with its members sending a wide range of military equipment and weaponry as well as humanitarian aid, NATO has repeatedly said it will not send troops into the country as it does not want a direct confrontation with nuclear power Russia.Russia will have to calibrate its response to Lithuania carefully, knowing that any direct attack will be seen as an attack on all NATO members by the organization.Vehicles of the German armed forces Bundeswehr from the Griffin barracks arrive at the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Battalion in Lithuania in Rukla, Lithuania on February 17, 2022.Petras Malukas | AFP | Getty ImagesFor their part, Lithuania's NATO allies have said they will stand by the country following the Kremlin's threats."Lithuania is a member of the NATO alliance and we stand by the commitments that we have made to the NATO alliance and that includes of course, a commitment to Article Five that is the bedrock of the NATO alliance," U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said during a daily press briefing."Lithuania has been a stalwart partner, we stand by NATO, we stand by our NATO allies and we stand by Lithuania," Price added. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
By Laurence PeterBBC News24 November 2022, 00:00 GMTImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, A Kosovan car with a Serbian sticker on its number plateKosovo and Serbia have agreed steps to defuse a row over Serbian car number plates, which had threatened to trigger violence.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted "We have a deal!" and said both sides would strive to normalise relations. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008.Kosovo had threatened to start fining drivers from Thursday if they continued using number plates issued by Belgrade.But Brussels talks resulted in a deal.Mr Borrell said Serbia would stop issuing licence plates with Kosovo cities' denominations, and Kosovo would not demand that vehicles with Serbian plates be re-registered.On Monday he expressed exasperation when Kosovo refused to accept the EU's proposed deal.But Kosovo returned to negotiations under pressure from its key ally, the United States, the BBC's Balkans correspondent Guy Delauney reports. He says the agreement sounds identical to the EU proposal on the table earlier this week.Kosovo authorities want the ethnic Serb minority to surrender their Serbian-issued plates. The government in Pristina has argued that plates pre-dating the territory's 1999 war for independence from Serbia can no longer be valid. Kosovo police were due to impose fines of €150 (£130; $154) to holders of Serbian-issued plates.Kosovo: Why is trouble flaring up again?The 50,000 Serbs in northern Kosovo only accept local Serb institutions, and there have been demonstrations against Pristina's licence plate policy.Image source, AFPImage caption, Kosovo Serb women demonstrated against the Pristina government on WednesdayBefore Wednesday's compromise, Serbia insisted that vehicles crossing its border from Kosovo bear Serbian-issued stickers on their Kosovan plates. Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic held talks in Brussels on Monday with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, with EU mediation.Kosovo Serbs rallied again on Wednesday against Mr Kurti's government, while Brussels talks resumed between Serbian official Petar Petkovic and Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Besnik Bislimi.In the divided town of Mitrovica - long a flashpoint between Kosovo's Serbs and ethnic Albanians - hundreds of Serb women accused Pristina of seeking to "ghettoise" the Serb minority. They held placards saying "We want Peace" and "Kurti, we will not give you our children".About 3,700 Nato peacekeeping troops remain deployed in Kosovo - the KFor force - to prevent any flare-up in the former Serbian province. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
To mark the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden made a surprising visit to Kyiv, where he promised continued American aid and international support. There, and in a second stop in Poland, his speeches sounded like declarations of victory.
“President Putin is confronted with something today that he didn’t think was possible a year ago,” Biden said in Warsaw. “The democracies of the world have grown stronger, not weaker. But the autocrats of the world have grown weaker, not stronger.”
Even allowing for Ukraine’s remarkable tenacity, the assertion of large geopolitical gains for the West is premature at best. The war in Ukraine is far from won, and claiming victory at halftime is a fool’s errand.
In fact, the second year is already shaping up as far more complicated than the first. Iran is expanding its drone supply to Russia and China aims to play a bigger role, with President Xi Jinping planning to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. More alarming, China might supply Russia with arms, creating a new axis of evil that could spark a world war.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is preparing to launch a new, larger offensive within weeks.
Despite these developments, Washington acts as if nothing has changed. It continues to drag its feet in helping Ukraine match Putin’s weaponry even as most of NATO has pulled its usual disappearing act.
Although the US has committed a staggering $113 billion to the war without serious auditing of where the non-military aid goes, it is still slow-walking military equipment Ukraine says it needs. The pattern is that first, the administration says no to a request, then weeks or months later says yes, and weeks or months after that, makes a delivery.
Two-year wait
The habit is reaching new levels of absurdity over Zelensky’s push for Abrams tanks. The White House agreed to the request on Jan. 25, according to The Wall Street Journal editorial page, but now says it might take up to two years for the 31 tanks to make it to the front lines.
In wartime, two years means never. Zelensky’s push for fighter jets is still in the “no” stage, so presumably, he will get those sometime after he gets the tanks.
The possibility that China will compound Russia’s offensive power should be a wake-up call to Washington. Instead, officials comfort themselves by repeating wishful talking points.
The always-unimpressive Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Adviser, declared on CNN last week that “Russia has already lost the war” and sneered at a larger China role by insisting, without evidence, that many Chinese officials already find it “difficult to deal with” Russia’s assault on Ukrainian civilians.
“They’re just trying to get through,” he said of the Chinese officials, “they’re trying to find a way in a very awkward space to not oppose Russia but to not fully support them either.”
Samantha Power, head of the US Agency for International Development, echoed Sullivan’s view of a reluctant China, saying: “What Russia is doing is bringing them into circumstances that I think fundamentally are not in their economic interests, not in their — the interests of, again, expanding their standing” in the world.
Both hailed the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy until anchor Fareed Zakaria reminded them of estimates “that the Russian economy is actually going to do better this year than the British economy or the German economy.”
The Biden team’s happy talk strikes me as a dated, self-serving view of Chinese motives and goals. It’s as if the officials are talking about the China of 25 years ago when it was emerging as a modern power.
But what if they are totally misreading the communist regime’s agenda now? What if China is using the war and America’s involvement to make a move toward its goal of global dominance?
Count historian Niall Ferguson among those who believe the US is missing the big picture. Speaking on Dan Senor’s podcast, “Call Me Back,” Ferguson expressed fears that Chinese leaders “are on a path to war and we don’t yet realize that. We still think this is just about speeches at Davos and sending Secretary of State Blinken to Beijing.”
Balloon boy
He cited the spy balloon that crisscrossed America as a “classic Cold War strategy,” and worries Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded a military showdown with the US is “inevitable.”
Ferguson also fears our massive military aid to Ukraine has reduced our ability to help defend Taiwan if China moves against the island.
“The military industrial complex has withered away,” he said. “It’s startling to realize how much capacity we’ve expended in Ukraine and how long it will take to replace it.”
Recall that the Pentagon early on bragged that America aimed to wear down Russia’s military capability by constantly resupplying Ukraine. Ferguson calls this a “strategic error” because Washington “failed to realize that China is the bigger beneficiary” of the policy.
“We’re not ready for prime time and all the tough talk about defending Taiwan is from an alternate reality,” he said.
Given developments, that sobering perspective makes far more sense than the nonsense coming from the White House. Biden’s notorious history of being “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates famously put it, does not inspire trust.
Moreover, there remains a possibility — no, make it a probability —that the Biden family’s corrupt deals with China tie the president’s hands. His response to the spy balloon suggests he was pulling his punches.
He tried to keep the balloon secret from the public so Blinken could go to Beijing to try to reset relations. After civilians spotted the balloon, Biden let it meander across America for four more days until it was shot down.
It was an extraordinarily brazen act by China, and officials there followed the shoot-down by demanding that America apologize! Thankfully, Biden didn’t, but days later, shrugged off the incident as “not a major breach.”
Of course, he also said the fatal withdrawal from Afghanistan was a success and he had stopped inflation. And that Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, that he never talked to his son about his foreign business and on and on.
Gummy dummy Gotham students
“Children are getting high on their way to school” by eating pot-laced gummy bears, he said. “I must be old-fashioned. People don’t realize what’s happening in our country and in our city. We have to start refocusing.”
Amen to that.
You asked for it, NY
Reader Robert Feuerstein, no fan of Gov. Hochul, says New Yorkers got what they deserved by electing her:
“Crime, taxes and a poor quality of life for years to come. So get out or suck
it up.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Walking through Aleppo in Syria last month, Bashar al-Assad did not look like a man shouldering the fate of a nation.
As he posed for photos with locals, who queued to meet him inspecting damage from the earthquake that had devastated parts of northern Syria, Assad appeared to show as much relief as concern for victims. The country’s grinning leader seemed to realise a moment had finally arrived.
Within days of the disaster, international aid chiefs were clamouring for an audience and asking the Syrian president for permission to reach even worse hit communities outside government control. Global bodies were once again deferring to Assad as the sovereign leader of a unified state.
Within days, so too were Syria’s neighbours, as foreign ministers from the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt, and officials from other Arab states travelled to Damascus for an audience, under the pretext of offering condolences. The symbolism, however, fed a seismic shift of a different nature.
For the first time in more than a decade of war and chaos, throughout which Assad had been a pariah in the eyes of his regional rivals, he was now being courted as a solution to the crisis that had earned him the tag in the first place.
The man who had presided over the disintegration of his own country, the exile of half its population and an economic ruin almost unmatched anywhere in the world for the past 70 years, had clearly been granted a comeback. A 20 February state visit to Oman, complete with red carpets, motorcades and flag-lined streets, reinforced his return. Syria’s readmission to the Arab League will probably follow later this year, cementing Assad’s rehabilitation.
“This has been a long time coming,” said a regional intelligence figure, who refused to be identified. “The case could no longer be made that the region was safer with Syria encouraged to remain rogue.”
Just what Assad has been expected to forgo, or any political leverage his renewed friends may hold over him, remains unclear.
Senior UAE and Saudi Arabian officials are known to have pushed hard on two issues; separating Syria from Iranian influence and stopping the export of vast amounts of the drug Captagon, a trade name of the synthetic stimulant fenethylline hydrochloride, to neighbouring states.
In March last year, Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, and the UAE’s president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, set the scene for the shift now taking place, inviting Assad for an informal visit to the UAE.
Both men spelled out what was expected of Assad, positioning him as a wayward leader who could be invited back into the fold, if he changed his ways.
One year on, little appears to have changed except in regional attitudes. A drug industry backed by Syria’s most important institutions continues to transform the country into a narco state, rivalling Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel for the scale of state involvement. With revenues from the widespread export of homemade pills nearing $6bn – a figure rivalling its gross domestic product – there seems little on the economic horizon that could prise Syrian leaders away from such a bonanza.
Last month, Emirati officials intercepted 4.5m Captagon pills hidden in cans of beans. The Italian authorities, meanwhile, ordered the arrest of a Syrian citizen, Taher al-Kayali, whom they accused of coordinating a shipment of 14 tonnes of the stimulant, destined for Libya and Saudi Arabia in 2020.
Italian police say they are certain the drugs came from Syria and could be linked to the Iranian-backed Shia militant group Hezbollah.
During a trip to Jordan last week, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, was lobbied heavily by the country’s monarch, King Abdullah, to put more pressure on Assad to stop the Captagon trade, which regional and western intelligence officers believe is being orchestrated by his younger brother, Maher al-Assad, and facilitated mainly through the Syrian army’s 4th Division, which is under his direct control. Abdullah also emphasised the role of Iranian militias in the drug trade across southern Syria, which has posed formidable problems for Jordan’s border forces and now also offers a lucrative trade in Iraq.
Just how Assad might pivot from Iran, when it remains so central to his fortunes, remains a moot point. That demand was further clouded on Friday by a surprise detente between Riyadh and Tehran, which had been at odds throughout the post-Arab spring years in which Syria, Lebanon and Yemen have often been battlegrounds for wars fought by their proxies.
The fact that Assad has reached the point of rehabilitation is in no small part due to the backing he received from Iran, which has used the insurrection against him to consolidate a bridgehead in Syria through which it can deepen its support for the most important arm of its foreign policy - Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Prising the leader of two decades from the arms of Iran, in such a context, would be almost existential for one of his main guarantors. “It is not a risk he could take,” said the regional official. “The Emiratis and the Saudis haven’t thought this one through.”
Another demand made of Assad – serious negotiations with the Syrian opposition to reach a political solution and encourage the safe return of refugees – appears equally dubious.
Even during the darkest years of the war, in which Assad was twice saved from defeat by his backers, discussions with opposition groups were never taken seriously and any agreements between both sides were centred on which part of Syria defeated communities should be exiled to.
Repeated western- and Russian-backed gatherings in Geneva and Astana in Kazakhstan since 2013 failed to generate real momentum, and demands for political power-sharing have never taken root. Brutality and fear have been used to reinforce Assad’s police state, largely with impunity.
His foes were once centre stage at the UN demanding that he be held to account for his atrocities. The lesson he can take from the heated words then and the welcome he now feels is that he can sweat anyone out – without changing his ways.
Syria being restored to its rightful status as a historical centre of regional influence has been a mantra that Assad has stuck to for the 23 years he has been president and was a core belief of his father, Hafez al-Assad, whose death in June 2000 paved the way for the unlikely leader.
In almost always refusing to meaningfully negotiate, Assad has learned one of his father’s core lessons. In seeing the results of this intransigence, he would probably divine wisdom in the elder Assad’s views.
A European ambassador in the UAE said: “The Turks, Russians and Iranians are all impatient for influence and to them it doesn’t matter if Assad stays around in a weak country, much of which he can’t speak for. If they can’t influence malign behaviour, it doesn’t matter.
“To them, more important is reaping a reward from the ruins on their doorstep. I think the Gulf states now feel the same.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — The billions of dollars in new arms for Ukraine announced this month — including British tanks, American fighting vehicles, and howitzers from Denmark and Sweden — are testament to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failure to split the NATO allies after nearly a year of war. But small yet significant fractures are getting too big to hide.The differences are over strategy for the coming year and the more immediate question of what Ukraine needs in the next few months, as both sides in the war prepare for major offensives in the spring. And although most of those debates take place behind closed doors, Britain’s impatience with the current pace of aid and Germany’s refusal to provide Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine broke out into public view this week.Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York TimesWhen the new British foreign secretary, James Cleverly, visited Washington this week, he gathered reporters for lunch and made the case that it is possible for Ukraine to score a “victory” in the war this year if the allies move fast to exploit Russia’s weaknesses. Officials in Poland, the Baltic States and Finland have largely agreed with the British assessment.American officials pushed back, saying it is critical to pace the aid, and not flood Ukraine with equipment its troops cannot yet operate. And they argue that in a world of limited resources, it would be wise to keep something in reserve for what the Pentagon believes will probably be a drawn-out conflict, in which Russia will try to wear Ukraine down with relentless barrages and tactics reminiscent of World War I and World War II.On Friday, at the conclusion of a meeting in Germany of the dozens of nations supplying the war effort, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, repeated the assessment he has offered since the fall.“For this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces,” he said. The best that could be hoped for is pressing Russia into a diplomatic negotiation — the way most wars end — although senior American diplomats say they have low expectations that Putin will enter serious talks.Then came the more immediate blowup with the German government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, over his refusal to send what many military experts believe could be a decisive weapon in Ukrainian hands: German-built Leopard 2 tanks.U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spent several days trying to persuade the Germans to ship them, or at least allow Poland and other nations that use the tanks to reexport them. But by the time the meeting with scores of allies ended, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reported that no agreement had been reached, although he said they would make a decision “as soon as possible.” He and Austin tried to focus on the unity of the effort to confront Russia, rather than the obvious rift over arms.Differences of strategy among wartime allies is the norm, not the exception. In World War II, there were major debates about whether to focus on defeating Nazi Germany first and turn to Japan — which had actually attacked American territory — second. Similar debates happened during the Korean War, Vietnam and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because the United States was providing the bulk of the fighting force, it usually prevailed.But in interviews with U.S., British and other European officials, including senior military leaders, it is clear that Ukraine is different. Only the Ukrainians are on the line, and no one wants to tell them how to fight a battle in which their forces, the only ones engaged in the daily brutality, have shown both grit and determination. But with both Russia and Ukraine planning fresh offensives, the debate over strategy and arms has reached what the NATO secretary-general has called “an inflection point.”The Ukrainians have made no secret that much as they appreciate the support of their allies, what they are getting is not enough. When Britain announced this week that it was sending Challenger 2 tanks, Ukraine’s foreign minister and defense minister issued a joint statement thanking the British government but adding that “it is not sufficient to achieve operational goals.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was typically blunt. After thanking the United States for a $2.5 billion contribution of arms, atop $3 billion announced several weeks ago, he said: “Hundreds of thank yous are not hundreds of tanks.”In an appearance on German television, he said: “If you have Leopards, then give them to us.”American officials were clearly frustrated after their negotiations with the German government this week. Germany had begun by saying that it would send Leopard tanks, and authorize others to, if the United States sent its M-1 Abrams tank as well. The United States declined, saying the tank is such a gas guzzler — it employs a jet engine — and requires such a supply line to keep running that it would not be useful in Ukraine’s environment. (The officials dodged questions about why a tank so difficult to operate on European battlefields is in the American arsenal.)The British Challengers and German Leopards are more flexible and easier to run. But in public, Austin and others avoided criticizing Scholz, who in their view has managed the biggest reversal of German foreign policy — starting with the suspension of two pipelines bringing gas from Russia — quite skillfully.Scholz’s real concern, they suspect, is that he does not believe the world is ready to see German tanks near the borders of Russia, a reminder of the Nazi invasion in World War II. One senior American official said this week that if Scholz and the German public are worried about that, in these circumstances “they are the only ones who are.”Although Germany did not say yes to sending Leopard tanks this week, it didn’t say no, either — at least not yet. But Ukraine has a very narrow window of time in which to launch a potentially decisive spring offensive before the Russians do, and the tanks are a key part of that effort.Before that launch, Ukraine has to muster thousands of combat-ready troops, receive new advanced weapons from the West, and train their soldiers in how to use and maintain those arms. Getting all that done would be, according to Milley, “a very, very heavy lift.”That’s why Germany’s delay on approving tanks was so frustrating to Austin and other top Western officials who had been trying all week to reach an agreement with their German counterparts to provide what Ukraine needs now to wrest back territory.“If we stop now or limit or diminish it, it will all have been in vain,” Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra said in an interview. “We have to double down. There is no substitute for victory on the battlefield.”Speaking about the current German position, a British official said that London’s commitment to send Challenger tanks was intended to encourage other nations to do likewise, and that the British government still hoped it would.At a news conference after Friday’s meeting, Austin sought to play down the importance of the Leopard tanks and highlight what Germany has provided — fighting vehicles, air defenses and training ranges for Ukrainian soldiers — no doubt hoping Berlin eventually would come around on Ukraine’s main request.“This isn’t really about one single platform,” Austin said, quickly pivoting to note that Ukraine was still getting more than 100 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and nearly 90 Stryker combat vehicles from the United States, the equivalent of “two brigades of combat power.”Still, Austin signaled the calendar is not on Ukraine’s side. “We have a window of opportunity here, between now and the spring,” he said. “That’s not a long time.”© 2023 The New York Times Company | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Foreign policy expert Dr. Walid Phares says that the United States has an obligation to support Ukraine, but it should not allow the country to drag America into the war.
"We need to defend Ukraine, but not give all our decisions to the Ukrainian government because they could drag the United States into a war that the Russians may transform into a nuclear confrontation," Dr. Phares said on the Monday edition of the "Just the News, No Noise" TV show.
According to Dr. Phares, President Joe Biden does not seem to have any plans to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine that has been ongoing since last year.
"What we are living now are moments that are very similar to either World War One, World War Two, and way beyond the Cold War," he explained. "Why? Because there is no plan in the Biden administration to stop that war."
"Of course we have a priority as a NATO member and as a defender of the free world to make sure that the Ukrainian state will not fall," he continued.
Dr. Phares said he believes the United States jumped too quickly to help Ukraine, without a plan.
"They went too far by continuing to just send weapons without having a plan," he said. "Where did we start the negotiation? We're dealing with a superpower that has nuclear abilities and capabilities." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Greg Nash Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) arrives for a press conference on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 to call on President Biden to declare a climate emergency. The Congressional Progressive Caucus on Monday evening sought to couch a statement from earlier in the day requesting that President Biden shift his administration’s policies on Ukraine and start some form of negotiations with Russia. In a move that raised questions among fellow Democrats, a group of dozens of liberal House lawmakers led by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) sent a letter earlier in the day to the White House calling for a possible diplomatic solution to end Moscow’s unprovoked conflict with Ukraine. “Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” Jayapal wrote on behalf of the caucus. “For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.” Several hours after the letter, which was first reported by The Washington Post, was released, the caucus sent a rare follow-up statement intended to fine-tune its original message. “In a letter to President Biden today, my colleagues and I advocated for the administration to continue ongoing military and economic support for Ukrainians while pursuing diplomatic support to Ukraine to ensure we are helpful partners on efforts to reach ‘a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine,” wrote Jayapal. “Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion, and nothing in the letter advocates for a change in that support,” she added. The initial correspondence was met with skepticism from some Democrats who questioned Jayapal’s leadership and motivation for calling for a new strategy. She sought to tweak her caucus’s stance, reaffirming her commitment to Biden’s foreign policy at a time when the party is facing divides over ideology and messaging on a number of fronts ahead of next month’s midterm elections. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool,” she wrote. “As we also made explicitly clear in our letter and will continue to make clear, we support President Biden and his administration’s commitment to nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” The letter comes just two weeks before Election Day as Democrats struggle to find an economic message that resonates with voters. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war have had a ripple effect on the U.S. economy and Americans’ daily lives, including through higher fuel prices. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
January 04, 2023 07:23 AM IS US NUCLEAR UMBRELLA ENOUGH? The White House and State Department confirmed yesterday that in the wake of North Korea’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric and growing nuclear arsenal, the United States and South Korea are developing plans to deter and, if necessary, respond to any use of nuclear weapons by Kim Jong Un. The news surfaced in an interview South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol gave to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, in which he said the U.S. and South Korean military were discussing contingencies in the event North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test, long expected to happen at any time. In the interview published Monday, Yoon suggested that America’s “nuclear umbrella” or “extended deterrence” was no longer enough to reassure the South Korean public at a time when some in his ruling party are calling for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the South. The report said the two allies are working on plans for “joint planning and training,” including the possible round-the-clock deployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as nuclear aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines, to the waters off Korea to beef up deterrence. But today Yoon was more circumspect, saying, “There are diverse opinions across our nation and in the United States regarding extended deterrence, so I am listening to them carefully and looking carefully at various possibilities," according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. NO EXERCISES, JUST PLANS: The White House was quick to tamp down the suggestion that the U.S. and the South were discussing joint nuclear drills after President Joe Biden rejected the idea with a single “No” in answer to a reporter’s question. “We’re not discussing joint nuclear exercises. The ROK [Republic of Korea] is a non-nuclear weapons state,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, who described the talks as an outgrowth of Biden and Yoon’s meeting in Cambodia late last year. “President Biden and President Yoon tasked their teams to plan for an effective, coordinated response to a range of scenarios, including nuclear use by North Korea,” said Jean-Pierre at yesterday’s White House briefing. “And so that is what the teams are working on and what President Yoon was clearly referencing when he made his comments.” US AND SOUTH KOREA PLANNING FOR 'COORDINATED RESPONSE' TO NORTH KOREA N. KOREA SEEKS ‘EXPONENTIAL’ INCREASE OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL: The increased urgency comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un marked the new year with the test of what Pyongyang described as a 600 mm “super-large multiple launch rocket system,” which could be armed with nuclear warheads. Kim inspected 30 of the weapons systems on New Year’s Day and called it an “eye-opening success” with the capability “to conduct a surprise and precision launch of multiple rockets,” targeting all of South Korea. “It has South Korea as a whole within the range of strike and is capable of carrying tactical nuclear warhead. It will discharge in future the combat mission of overpowering the enemy as a core, offensive weapon of our armed forces,” Kim boasted, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency. A separate KCNA report noted that at a meeting of North Korea’s Workers’ Party Central Committee, Kim’s strategy for the new year called for “the mass-production of tactical nuclear weapons” and “an exponential increase of the country's nuclear arsenal.” PEACE TALKS DEAD: U.S. officials have essentially given up on trying to revive the diplomatic efforts to convince Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions while insisting they are prepared to resume talks at any time with no preconditions. “We have made repeatedly clear that we harbor no hostile intent towards the DPRK [North Korea]. We are prepared to engage in constructive, good-faith, principled dialogue towards what is our ultimate goal — that is the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price, noting that North Korea has “repeatedly refused to engage” in any dialog since the failed 2019 summit between former President Donald Trump and Kim in Hanoi. “The DPRK regime has repeatedly appeared to embrace provocation over dialogue and diplomacy,” said Price. “Until and unless the DPRK’s approach changes, our approach will continue apace. … Our commitment to the security of the ROK and Japan as our treaty allies is ironclad.” CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Jennifer Klein, assistant to the president and director of the White House Gender Policy Council; and U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power launch the first "U.S. Strategy on Global Women's Economic Security," which, according to the State Department, seeks to "streamline and mobilize U.S. foreign policy, international programming and development assistance, trade policy and promotion, private sector development, and partnerships to ensure women's full and equitable participation in the global economy." Livestream at 11 a.m. https://www.state.gov ALSO TODAY: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) resumes his quest to become House speaker in the face of a revolt by 20 members of his party intent on denying him his longtime ambition. The split in the Republican Party has created a dynamic akin to Great Britain's parliamentary system, where the selection of a prime minister often requires multiple rounds of voting and deals to put together a coalition government. McCarthy has been forced to agree to a provision in which any five members of the House can call for a “snap” election to remove him from the post, which is much like a “no confidence” vote in the British Parliament that can oust a prime minister. McCarthy has vowed not to drop out, no matter how many ballots it takes, while his detractors also say they will not give in after denying McCarthy the necessary 218 votes on three straight ballots. The reality is the House is actually divided into three parties, not two, at the moment. The “Only Kevin” Republicans, the “Never Kevin” Republicans, and the Democrats, who are sitting on the sidelines watching the chaos. No one knows what will happen today when voting resumes. But until a speaker is chosen, the House cannot conduct any business, including the swearing-in of members. ‘EVERY HOUSE A FORTRESS’: In a video that surfaced over the past few days, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian Wagner Group mercenary organization, is seen describing the tenacious defense put up by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas city of Bakhmut, where for weeks Russia has been attempting and failing to break through Ukrainian lines while suffering heavy casualties. In the video, Prigozhin blames the slow progress on the fact that each house in Bakhmut is a “fortress,” that Ukrainians have defensive lines every 10 meters, and that Russian forces must clear building by building, with inadequate equipment and a shortage of ammunition. “Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base. Wagner Group soldiers told Prigozhin that they were unable to break through Ukrainian lines in Bakhmut due to insufficient armored vehicles, ammunition, and 100mm shell supplies during a likely scripted segment in the clip,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment. “This statement seeks to absolve the Wagner Group and Prigozhin of personal responsibility by attributing their failure to capture Bakhmut to the larger Russian resource allocation problems that Russian and Ukrainian sources have been increasingly discussing since late December.” SYRIA STRIKE: The U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces came under rocket attack in northern Syria this morning but that there were no casualties. “Two rockets targeted coalition forces at Mission Support Site Conoco, northeast Syria, today at approximately 9 a.m. local time in Syria (1 a.m. Eastern),” said Col. Joe Buccino, a CENTCOM spokesman. “The attack resulted in no injuries or damage to the base or coalition property.” U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces traced the rocket fire to its origin site and found a third unfired rocket but not the forces that fired it, according to a CENTCOM statement. "Attacks of this kind place coalition forces and the civilian populace at risk and undermine the hard-earned stability and security of Syria and the region," said Buccino. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The Rundown Washington Examiner: US and South Korea planning for 'coordinated response' to North Korea Washington Examiner: Senior Army officer who sparred with Tucker Carlson honorably discharged Washington Examiner: Russia launches more than 80 Iranian drones at Ukraine to start 2023 Washington Examiner: Russian mercenary chief complains it takes ‘weeks to capture a house’ in Ukraine Washington Examiner: China condemns ‘unacceptable’ travel restrictions amid COVID data suspicions Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Two charged in Christmas substation attacks that left thousands without power New York Times: As 1-Year Mark Nears, Putin Prepares Russians For Long Fight. Washington Post: Russian commanders blamed for heavy losses in New Year’s Day strike Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Has Digitized Its Fighting Forces on a Shoestring Stars and Stripes: Push Underway In NATO To Raise Defense Spending By Members AP: Russia, shaken by Ukrainian strike, could step up drone use AP: Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots Navy Times: New In 2023: Here Comes The First-Ever Surface Drone Fleet Breaking Defense: After A Year In Limbo, Appropriators Appear To Finally Sink Large Unmanned Sub Program CNN: China’s New Supercarrier Will Soon Undergo First Sea Trials, Officer Says Washington Times: Beijing Spies Stole Bomb Secrets On Every U.S. Warhead To Build Nuclear Forces CNN: Videos Show Both Sides Of U.S.-China Aerial Encounter – And Highlight The Risks Involved AL Monitor: U.S. Top Middle East Commander Tests New Model Of Deterring Iran USA Today: Culture Wars: House Republicans Attack Defense Department For ‘Woke’ Social Policies Washington Post: Milley Told Jan. 6 Panel He’s Become A Political ‘Lightning Rod’ Washington Post: Jan. 6 committee yet again debunks Trump claim of 10,000 troops Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Deploys Latest E-11A BACN to Saudi Arabia Air & Space Forces Magazine: $30 Billion F-35 Deal Will See Prices Rise, Deliveries Dip Air & Space Forces Magazine: RC-135 Takes Evasive Maneuvers after ‘Unsafe’ Chinese Fighter Intercept Dayton Daily News: GE Aerospace Gets Hefty Air Force Contract for Engine Work Air & Space Forces Magazine: Major and LTC Boards Will Now See When Candidates Have Advanced Degrees Military.com: 'Chaos' for Service Members and Spouses After Pentagon Misses Deadline for Parental Leave Policy 19fortyfive.com: Wagner Group Won't Save Putin from Failure in Ukraine 19fortyfive.com: Putin Is in Trouble: Ukraine's HIMARS Missiles Look Unstoppable 19fortyfive.com: Does China Want to Dominate Asia or the World? The Cipher Brief: Global Leaders to Watch in 2023 The Cipher Brief: What is the Pentagon Doing with Record R&D Appropriations? The Cipher Brief: The Story of America’s Most Dangerous Female Spy Calendar WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 4 2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the fentanyl crisis, border security, and Title 42, with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live THURSDAY | JANUARY 5 9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Unanswered Questions about North Korean Leadership,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the CSIS's Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/unanswered-questions-about-north-korean-leadership FRIDAY | JANUARY 6 12 p.m. Union Square, 3rd St. SW — Progressive Democrats of America, the Not Above the Law Coalition, and the Declaration for American Democracy hold an "Our Freedoms, Our Vote" Jan. 6 rally "to remember what happened two years ago,” with Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD); Martin Luther King III, activist and son of the late Martin Luther King Jr.; and Andrea Waters King, president of the Drum Major Institute and wife of Martin Luther King III https://www.mobilize.us/jan6hearings/event/545269/ MONDAY | JANUARY 8 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies report launch: “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” with co-authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, along with a panel discussion with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula; Becca Wasser, senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and William Murray, professor, U.S. Naval War College https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch FRIDAY | JANUARY 13 TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov QUOTE OF THE DAY “In [Bakhmut], every house has become a fortress. Our guys sometimes fight for more than a day over one house. Sometimes they fight for weeks over one house. And behind this house, there is still a new line of defense, and not one. And how many such lines of defense are there in [Bakhmut]? Five hundred would probably not be an exaggeration.” Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a video, attempting to justify the lack of progress of his mercenaries in Bakhmut, Ukraine, in the face of fierce Ukrainian defenses. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), the leading Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is calling on the Biden administration to engage more with Congress before finalizing an agreement to reenter the Iran nuclear deal, asserting that lawmakers deserve to be briefed and provided the opportunity to raise concerns on such a consequential foreign policy decision. In a letter sent to President Joe Biden on Tuesday, the Texas Republican sounded the alarm over plans to reenter an agreement similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — a deal scrapped by the Trump administration that looked to place a limit on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for a rollback of international sanctions — without congressional input. McCaul said a recent Politico report stating the administration planned to move forward without briefing Congress conflicts with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s previous testimony. SEE IT: RUSSIAN FORCES SHIELD MILITARY VEHICLES INSIDE UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR PLANT “I write to express my strong concerns that, as your administration reaches the conclusion of over 16 months of negotiations on a new Iran nuclear deal, Congress is not being properly updated on the proposals being set forth,” he wrote. “Moreover, a White House official recently made concerning comments, published in Politico, indicating that the administration does not plan to offer another briefing to Members of Congress unless a deal is reached. This directly contradicts Secretary Antony Blinken’s testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on March 10, 2021, where he said, ‘We’re determined to consult on the takeoff, not on the landing, across the board. But, yes, particularly when it comes to Iran.’” McCaul noted that members on both sides of the aisle have expressed reservations about the agreement's effectiveness, with critics insisting the JCPOA was counterproductive to its goal and that renewing it could aid Iran in producing or obtaining nuclear weapons. “Members of Congress have expressed wide-ranging concerns regarding the national security implications of nuclear negotiations, including with respect to the Iranian regime’s chilling assassination plots against American citizens on U.S. soil. As you know, Congress must review any agreement that is reached, pursuant to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act,” he continued. “It is completely unreasonable for this administration to think that a review could be favorable without a robust history of engagement with Congress, to include an increased tempo of briefings as negotiations reach their purported end game," McCaul said. "The lack of recent engagement with Congress is even more shocking given that Iran’s parliament was reportedly briefed on August 17.” As reports indicate that a deal is growing closer to being finalized, McCaul argued that the lack of engagement from the administration indicates the White House is aware of the misgivings lawmakers will have and is looking to "sell a bad deal to the American people." “The only logical conclusion to draw is that Iran’s negotiators are pleased with the outcome of negotiations, while U.S. negotiators are still determining how to make further compromises and best sell a bad deal to the American people," he said. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER "I urge you to provide a series of briefings to Congress, as soon as possible and lasting through the conclusion of the statutorily required INARA review process," McCaul said. "As the elected representatives of the American people, it is vital Congress have a clear view over how any agreement with Iran does or does not address the full scope of Iran’s malign activities. This remains the case regardless of what position you ultimately adopt with respect to the European Union’s latest draft proposal.”
Republicans have been vocal about their opposition to reentering the deal, with senior lawmakers and former administration officials saying it presents a national security threat to the United States and allied countries, including Israel. Critics on both sides of the aisle have noted that Iran violated the previous agreement on multiple occasions and that re-upping a deal could inadvertently lead to funding terrorism. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Madeline Monroe/Greg Nash Madeline Monroe/Greg Nash Russia has attempted dozens of cyber espionage campaigns in 42 countries since it invaded Ukraine in February, according to a new Microsoft report. The report says those efforts have targeted entities across six continents and primarily focused on NATO allies and groups supporting Ukraine. “The Russian invasion relies in part on a cyber strategy that includes at least three distinct and sometimes coordinated efforts – destructive cyberattacks within Ukraine, network penetration and espionage outside Ukraine and cyber influence operations targeting people around the world,” Microsoft President Brad Smith said in the report. The tech giant previously detailed Russian cyber operations against Ukraine itself during the invasion in April. Sixty-three percent of the observed Russian activity in the 42 countries beyond Ukraine targeted NATO members, according to the new report. The United States has been Russia’s top target, but the company also noted a large amount of activity in Poland — which borders Ukraine and has provided significant military and humanitarian assistance to the country — as well as the Baltic states. Microsoft also highlighted an increase in targeting against networks in countries such as Finland and Sweden, which have recently applied for NATO membership, and Turkey, which has raised opposition to those bids. Nearly half of the observed activity targeted governments, and another 12 percent focused on NGOs advising Ukraine on foreign policy or those providing humanitarian aid. Russia’s other attacks targeted IT companies, the energy sector and defense entities, according to the report. But those attacks were often fended off by organizations’ cyber defenses. Just 29 percent of identified Russian efforts were successful, and a quarter of those incidents led to confirmed exfiltration of the organization’s data, Microsoft said. The tech giant argued the attacks call for additional investments in cyber defenses. “The lessons from Ukraine call for a coordinated and comprehensive strategy to strengthen defenses against the full range of cyber destructive, espionage and influence operations,” Smith said. The report also documents how Russia’s cyber operations are disseminating its propaganda. Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed the Ukrainian invasion as a “special military operation” and has cracked down on dissenters to the war. Microsoft concluded that Russian cyber influence increased the spread of the country’s propaganda by 216 percent in Ukraine and 82 percent in the United States since the war began. The tech giant said those efforts target Russians to sustain domestic support for the war effort, Ukrainians to undermine confidence in the country’s abilities, Americans and Europeans to undermine Western unity against Russia and people in nonaligned countries to sustain Russia’s support in international bodies. “Unfortunately, especially when pursued with patience and persistence, these cyber influence operations are almost perfectly positioned to take advantage of the longstanding openness of democratic societies and the public polarization that is characteristic of current times,” the report states. The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately return a request for comment. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine was working to restore electricity to hospitals, heating systems and other critical infrastructure in major cities after Russia’s latest wave of attacks on the power grid prompted accusations of “war crimes”.The volley of missiles unleashed Friday pitched multiple cities into darkness, cutting water and heat and forcing people to endure freezing cold.The mayor of Ukraine’s capital Vitali Klitschko said early Saturday the city’s metro system was back in service and that all residents had been reconnected to water supply a day after the latest wave of Russian air strikes on critical infrastructure.He also said heating had been restored to half the city and electricity had been returned to two-thirds.“But schedules of emergency outages are being implemented,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “Because the deficit of electricity is significant.”Ukraine’s national energy provider said its system had lost more than half its capacity after strikes targeted “backbone networks and generation facilities”.Ukrenergo warned the extent of the damage in the north, south and centre of the country meant it could take longer to restore supplies than after previous hits.“Priority will be given to critical infrastructure: hospitals, water supply facilities, heat supply facilities, sewage treatment plants,” Ukrenergo said in a statement Friday.After a series of embarrassing battlefield defeats, Russia has since October pursued an aerial onslaught against what Moscow says are military-linked facilities.But France and the European Union said the suffering inflicted on freezing civilians constitutes war crimes, with the bloc’s foreign policy chief calling the bombings “barbaric”.“These cruel, inhumane attacks aim to increase human suffering and deprive Ukrainian people,” Josep Borrell said.Russia fired 74 missiles – mainly cruise missiles – on Friday, 60 of which were shot down by anti-aircraft defence, according to the Ukrainian army.Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the strikes left capital Kyiv and 14 regions affected by power and water cuts.He called for “increased pressure” from the West on the Kremlin and for more air defence systems.“Our power engineers and repair crews have already started working during the air alert and are doing everything possible to restore generation and supply. It takes time. But it will be (done),” Zelenskiy said.In the central city of Kryvyi Rig, where Zelenskiy was born, the airstrikes hit a residential building.“A 64-year-old woman and a young couple died. Their little son still remains under the rubble of the house,” the region’s governor Valentyn Reznichenko said, adding that 13 others had been wounded.Oleksandr Starukh, head of the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, said his territory had been targeted by more than a dozen Russian missiles.Kyiv, meanwhile, withstood one of the biggest missile attacks since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Regional officials said their air-defence forces had shot down 37 out of 40 missiles.With about half of Ukraine’s energy grid damaged, the national operator warned Friday of emergency blackouts.In Ukrainian-held Bakhmut – an eastern city at the centre of the war – some residents received wood stoves distributed by volunteers, AFP journalists said.Oleksandra, 85, braved the cold to collect medication at a nearby pharmacy in the Donetsk region city.“I’ll survive winter. I’ll just walk more to get warm,” the old woman told AFP.In the south, fresh Russian shelling in Kherson, recently recaptured by Ukraine, killed one person and wounded three more.Kherson has been subjected to persistent Russian shelling since Moscow’s forces retreated in November, and power was cut in the city earlier this week.On Thursday, Russian attacks killed 14 people, deputy head of the president’s office Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.In the Russian-controlled region of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, Moscow-installed officials said shelling from Kyiv’s forces had killed eight and wounded 23.“The enemy is conducting barbaric shelling of cities and districts of the republic,” the Russian-installed leader of Luhansk Leonid Pasechnik said on social media.Moscow has said the strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are a response to an explosion on the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland to the Crimean peninsula.The Kremlin has said it holds Kyiv ultimately responsible for the humanitarian impact for refusing Russian negotiation terms.Ukrainian defence officials said this week that their forces had shot down more than a dozen Iranian-made attack drones launched at Kyiv, a sign that western-supplied systems are having an impact.Ukrainian military leaders have warned Moscow is preparing for a major winter offensive, including a fresh attempt to take Kyiv.Aiming to push Moscow to the negotiating table, the EU on Friday imposed further sanctions, adding restrictions on the export of drone engines to Russia or countries like Iran looking to supply Moscow with weapons.But Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg told AFP that Russia was readying for a protracted war.“We see that they are mobilising more forces, that they are willing to suffer also a lot of casualties, that they are trying to get access to more weapons and ammunition,” he said. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Liz Truss has said she is considering relocating the British embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in a controversial move that would break with decades of UK foreign policy in order to follow in the footsteps of Donald Trump.In a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York, the prime minister told Israel’s caretaker leader, Yair Lapid, about a “review of the current location” of the building, Downing Street said in a statement.The status of Jerusalem, which Israelis and Palestinians claim as their capital, is one of the most sensitive issues in the long-running conflict.East Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza Strip, has been considered occupied Palestinian territory under international law since the six-day war in 1967.Like the vast majority of the international community, the UK’s position until this point has been that the divided city should host consulates, rather than embassies, until a final peace agreement is reached.Trump’s 2018 fulfillment of an election campaign promise to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital prompted international condemnation, and led to protests and clashes in which Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians. The then UK prime minister Theresa May criticised the move at the time.On Thursday, the Israeli prime minister tweeted his thanks to Truss for what he described as “positively considering” the move. “We will continue to strengthen the partnership between the countries,” he said.מודה לידידתי הטובה, ראשת ממשלת בריטניה ליז טראס, שהודיעה כי היא שוקלת בחיוב את העברת שגרירות בריטניה לירושלים בירת ישראל- אנחנו נמשיך לחזק את השותפות בין המדינות 🇮🇱🇬🇧צילום: אבי אוחיון, לע״מ pic.twitter.com/0DZB0TGMsl— יאיר לפיד - Yair Lapid (@yairlapid) September 22, 2022
Truss appears to have first publicly floated the idea of relocating the embassy in a letter to the Conservative Friends of Israel parliamentary group during the Tory leadership campaign over the summer.She wrote: “I understand the importance and sensitivity of the location of the British embassy in Israel. I’ve had many conversations with my good friend ... Lapid on this topic. Acknowledging that, I will review a move to ensure we are operating on the strongest footing within Israel.”At a hustings with CFI, she vowed that “under my leadership, Israel will have no stauncher friend in the world. That’s what I’ve done as foreign secretary and trade secretary. I don’t just talk the talk – I walk the walk.”Pressed in the House of Commons on 6 September by the backbench Tory MP Michael Fabricant to follow the US and move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the Foreign Office minister Amanda Milling said: “The British embassy to Israel is in Tel Aviv. I am aware of the possibility of a review, but will not speculate further on this point.”Her remarks suggest the review is only just under way, but advocates of the move inside the Conservative party claim the proposal will prove less controversial than even a few years ago due to the Trump administration setting a precedent, and the thaw in relations between Israel and some Arab countries following the Abraham accords.Downing Street has been contacted to explain how long the review will take.Other than the US, only three states have embassies to Israel in Jerusalem – Kosovo, Honduras and Guatemala – which all moved from Tel Aviv after the US relocation. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Three Royal Navy warships shadowed a Russian Navy task force as it passed through waters close to the UK.HMS Westminster, HMS Lancaster and HMS Richmond, all Type 23 frigates, tracked the Slava-class cruiser Marshal Ustinov as the Russian group headed home from the eastern Mediterranean after supporting President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Marshal Ustinov was accompanied by Udaloy-class destroyer Vice-Admiral Kulakov and tanker Vyazma.The cruiser is the sister ship of the doomed Russian warship Moskva, which Ukraine says it sunk in a missile attack and Russia claims sank during a storm after a fire detonated ammunition on board.Russia uses Phillip Schofield on This Morning 'as propaganda' - follow latest updates
Patrol ship HMS Mersey also shadowed Russian military research vessel Akademik Ioffe on its journey south through the Dover shipping lanes and into the Channel.HMS Westminster's commanding officer (CO), Commander Ed Moss-Ward, said: "Maritime security in the sea areas around the UK is crucial to our prosperity and resilience. More on Russia Ukraine war: Russia buying rockets and artillery shells from North Korea, US intelligence says Vladimir Putin backs foreign policy doctrine to 'protect ideals of Russian World' 'Missiles flying in front of your eyes': The brave volunteers driving Ukrainian families under fire from Kherson "The Royal Navy routinely responds to escort warships in UK territorial waters and the adjacent sea areas to ensure compliance with maritime law, to deter malign activity and to protect our national interests."Escorting the Russian task group has demonstrated that the Royal Navy is committed to maintaining maritime security and to co-operating with our NATO allies." The Royal Navy operationHMS Lancaster, part of NATO's fast response task force in the Atlantic, shadowed the Russian ships from the Strait of Gibraltar to the Celtic Sea.HMS Westminster deployed from Portsmouth to intercept the Russian ships in the Celtic Sea, where Marshal Ustinov was refuelled by the tanker Vyazma.HMS Richmond kept watch in the English Channel. Image: HMS Westminster (pictured in the foreground) watches cruiser Marshal Ustinov Image: HMS Westminster monitors Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov and tanker Vyazma during refuelling operations CO of HMS Lancaster, Commander Tom Johnson, said: "Working together allows NATO allies to respond to security challenges at pace and collectively deter potential aggressors."Exchange of personnel further deepens NATO cohesion and interoperability so that the alliance can swiftly and efficiently react to any threat."Lancaster's team work exceptionally hard to ensure we are always ready to respond to any threat at a moment's notice." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — Moonfish and Juice, the two Ukrainian fighter pilots who visited Washington, D.C., last week with their representatives, had a simple message for the elected leaders, defense officials and journalists they met: We can win this war, and have to. Because if Russia wins, there is no telling where it will stop.“If it’s not stopped right now, right here in Ukraine on the ground, the rest of the democratic world could find itself in a much, much worse situation,” says Moonfish — Yahoo News is not using his real name — who has been flying missions over eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making steady gains in recent weeks.On Sunday, rockets hit Kyiv, a reminder that the setbacks Russia suffered throughout the winter and early spring have hardly convinced the Kremlin to negotiate a compromise.Nor is it clear that such a compromise would be palatable to Ukraine, which was initially invaded by Russia in 2014 in a bid to reclaim its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Asked by Yahoo News what victory would look like, Juice said that Ukraine must return to the borders established in 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. His handlers hasten to point out that Kyiv’s official position is not quite so ambitious, but Juice is not concerned with the finer points of diplomacy.Ukrainian rescuers search a residential building hit by Russian missiles in Kyiv on Sunday. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)“So it’s the position of politicians,” he says insistently. “But the position of soldiers is the borders of 1991.”American policymakers have insisted that it is for Ukrainians to decide when they are ready to negotiate, but there is little secret that the foreign policy establishment in Washington is nervous about just how much longer the U.S.-European coalition will hold.“NATO policy appears to be that, to keep the alliance together, we will give them enough to fight, but we won’t give them enough to win,” Mark Kimmitt, a former senior policy official at the departments of Defense and State, told Yahoo News. “Such a policy often leads to a lowest common denominator, held captive by the more conservative alliance members.”When the invasion first started, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top generals thought they might take Kyiv within three days. A ferocious Ukrainian defense repelled the Russian assault, giving hope to a victory by the much smaller nation. But now, several months later, the war has entered a grinding phase that has seen Russia take smaller cities like Severodonetsk but hardly consolidating its gains in the Donbas region to any extent that would allow Putin to claim victory.“Russians are just eking out inch by inch of territory,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters on Friday.President Biden speaking about the conflict in Ukraine during a visit to Troy, Ala., on May 3. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images)Last week, the U.S. announced that it was sending $450 million in military equipment — including four advanced rocket systems — to Ukraine. But it might not be enough.“The Ukrainian air defense capacity was gutted in the opening few days of the war in February,” Daniel L. Davis, a military expert with Defense Priorities and a combat veteran, told Yahoo News. “Latest reports are that Russia is able to fly somewhere between 200 and 300 sorties per day. Most reliable assessments suggest Russia has had around 30 combat fixed-wing aircraft shot down during the war — which means thousands of jets fly each month and only six or seven get shot down in any given month.”And until Ukraine can knock out Russian air defense systems, Davis warns, sending them Western fighter jets and helicopters is not likely to do much good, since those will simply be shot out of the sky.The Ukrainians are appreciative that they have not been forgotten by the West. But the uncomfortable reality is that they are up against one of the most powerful militaries in the world, commanded by a Kremlin leadership that is fixated on proving its might to the rest of the world. Gratitude is thus followed by the question of what will come next, and when.“We need all the help we can get,” says Yulia Marushevska, who works with the Ukrainian military in securing Western aid and who traveled to Washington with Moonfish and Juice.A Russian aircraft shot down by Ukrainian forces crashed in a residential area of Chernihiv on April 22. (Nicola Marfisi/AGF/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)The two pilots say that they simply need more Western equipment: air defenses that can take down Russian missiles, jets more nimble and advanced than the Soviet-era MiGs that have been supplied to the Ukrainians thus far.“We need to do better. We need to save more lives,” Juice says. “We are trying to do our best, but it’s old equipment.”Both pilots say that Russian rockets and missiles have hit civilian targets along with military ones. “They don’t care about hospitals or schools,” Juice says of Russia. “They are not real professionals” who follow Western standards of conduct.“They don’t have enough technical training, enough real-fire training,” says Juice, who was involved in the initial defense of Kyiv. “So that’s why they’ve suffered such great losses.”Moonfish, usually the more subdued of the pair, jumped in. “They’re no match for us. They’re no match for American pilots. I am 100% sure of that.” He says that even with superior aircraft like the Sukhoi Su-30, poor training blunts Russia’s advantage, as does a command-and-control structure at once chaotic and despotic.“They’re afraid to speak up,” Moonfish says, an assessment he bases on interrogation of captured Ukrainian pilots.Police officers detain a man during a protest in Moscow against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (AFP via Getty Images)Fear of speaking up is endemic in Russian society, which has been cowed by two decades of Putin. “Yeah, it was disappointing,” Moonfish says of how quickly protests in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg ended, to be replaced by acquiescence to Kremlin propaganda. “We believed that something actually might have happened, especially in the first month,” when Putin’s grip on power seemed as fragile as it had in years. Now, though, the war is popular with ordinary Russians, who have adjusted to international sanctions and widespread condemnation.“S*** like that would never have happened in Ukraine,” Moonfish says.Now he is preparing for a war that could go on for years. Even if Putin is replaced, it will likely be by an understudy eager for decisive military victory – the very kind Putin enjoyed in Chechnya when he first came to power in 1999.“We are all set for a long-term confrontation with Russia,” Moonfish says.“And because of that, we need more weapons to free our territories. To at least make them think twice before invading again.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
China says $619 million US arms sale to Taiwan ‘raises tensions’ in the region
Chinese officials on Thursday said they oppose the recent U.S. approval of $619 million in military sales to Taiwan, saying it violates Beijing’s claims to the self-ruled island and raises tensions in the region.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a press briefing that China “will continue to take resolute and strong measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty and security interests.”
China’s claim to the democratically, self-ruled island is its most fundamental foreign policy priority and is a source of deep tensions with the U.S. in a relationship that has grown extremely adversarial. Most recently, this has included a Chinese spy balloon violating U.S. airspace, Washington warning Beijing off potential weapons assistance to Russia for use against Ukraine and renewed focus on China’s obstruction into investigations surrounding the origins of COVID-19.
The U.S. views the defense of Taiwan and the preservation of its democratic government as a top national security interest.
And while the U.S. acknowledges the Chinese position that it views Taiwan as an inalienable part of the mainland, U.S. governments have never committed to treating the island-country as under the rule of Beijing. Still, the U.S. has held off on formally recognizing Taipei as an independent government – part of its “one-China policy.”
Through this policy, the U.S. is committed to helping Taiwan with its self-defense, and that has taken on more urgency as U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Beijing is increasingly positioning itself to take over the island by force, even as it attempts to subsume it through economic and diplomatic coercion.
On Wednesday, the Biden administration approved $619 million in potential arms sales to Taiwan that is said to include hundreds of missiles for F-16 fighter jets and related equipment and that comes on top of $5 billion in proposed arms sales since January 2021.
A State Department official said the potential arms sales are consistent with U.S. law, which includes the Taiwan Relations Act, and in line with the “longstanding One-China policy.”
“The United States makes available to Taiwan defense articles and services necessary to enable it to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,” the official said.
“The United States’ support to Taiwan and steps Taiwan takes to enhance its self-defense capabilities contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has said that Ukraine would not receive another penny "under Republicans" in a video that has gone viral.While speaking at a rally in Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday, Greene spoke about the possibility of Republicans taking back the House and Senate after the midterm elections.Greene has since faced criticism for her comments and the clip has already been viewed more than 650,000 times on Twitter since being posted on Thursday.
"The only border that [the Democrats] care about is Ukraine, not America's southern border," Greene said during her speech."Under Republicans not another penny will go to Ukraine, our country comes first. They [Democrats] don't care about our border or our people."Many of Greene's critics suggested that by failing to support Ukraine, the U.S. would be giving Russian President Vladimir Putin exactly what he wants.Commentator Piers Morgan referred to Greene as one of "Putin's useful idiots" as he shared the clip to his Twitter page.
Former Virginia Representative Barbara Comstock, a Republican, also commented: "With brain dead Marjorie Greene, it's always Russia first. She and Rep. Jayapal should form the appeasement caucus."In October, Democratic Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus faced a backlash after releasing a letter, initially signed in June by 30 members, calling for diplomacy with Russia. She withdrew the letter.
"The Republican Party is the party of Putin. Just listen, they are telling you," former director for European Affairs for the United States National Security Council, Alexander Vindman tweeted.
Republican Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney also commented on the viral video which resulted in Greene hitting back at her."This is exactly what Putin wants. If we'd had Republicans like this in the 1980s, we would have lost the Cold War," Cheney tweeted.There are two things that are in the past.1. You and your Daddy’s Republican Party that sent our military to fight foreign wars on the backs of American tax dollars and didn’t win a damn thing.2. You. https://t.co/cneLwdkxQ8— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) November 4, 2022
Greene responded by tweeting: "There are two things that are in the past."1) You and your Daddy's Republican Party that sent our military to fight foreign wars on the backs of American tax dollars and didn't win a damn thing. 2) You."Greene also responded to author and foreign-policy analyst Max Boot who said her clip was a great argument to vote for Democrats.You have a Ukraine flag before your American flag and claim people should vote Democrat so American tax dollars can keep defending a foreign country’s border while our border is completely under invasion.Ok, Mr. former national security “expert” you go to the 🇺🇦 front lines. https://t.co/ojbSn4VJ7H— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) November 3, 2022
"You have a Ukraine flag before your American flag and claim people should vote Democrat so American tax dollars can keep defending a foreign country's border while our border is completely under invasion," Greene responded."Ok, Mr. Former national security 'expert' you go to the [Ukrainian] front lines."President Joe Biden has repeatedly spoken about the importance of supporting Ukraine. According to the State Department, the U.S. has provided around $17.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022.Newsweek has contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene for comment. US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene speaks during a former US President Donald Trump's Save America rally at Macomb County Community College Sports and Expo Center in Warren, Michigan, on October 1, 2022. Greene said Ukraine would not receive a penny "under Republicans."
Getty | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! President Joe Biden's foreign policy is a toxic mix of ideas from both extremes of the political spectrum. On the one hand, Biden and company have embraced the Obama era policy of maximum restraint. The idea is that the less the U.S. engages in foreign affairs, the fewer problems it will have to deal with. The problem with maximum restraint is that it can let a manageable foreign problem fester and grow into a tremendous problem. It’s like when a homeowner keeps putting off fixing a leaky roof; one day the ceiling will collapse. WHITE HOUSE SUMMONS CHINESE AMBASSADOR AMID MILITARY EXERCISES, DIPLOMATIC RETALIATION FOR PELOSI TAIWAN VISITMaximum restraint can also lead to precipitous withdrawal from foreign engagements. This too can be disastrous. For example, Obama precipitously withdrew from Iraq, and ISIS promptly filled the vacuum. Biden did the same in Afghanistan, and we now know that Al Qaeda has already reestablished a foothold there. Taiwan Air Force Mirage fighter jets taxi on a runway at an airbase in Hsinchu, Taiwan, Friday, Aug. 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Johnson Lai)The reality is: Whenever America walks away, our adversaries happily fill in. Just look at what happened at our southern border. As soon as Biden reversed all of Trump’s border security measures, the cartels started lining up people to come across. On the other hand, Biden is often over-eager to engage on the world stage, turning American interests over to globalist management. The idea is that we can make the world safer, more equitable and more just if we follow the wisdom of global elites and govern according to international agreements on everything from climate policy and tax policy to labor policy and the treatment of women. The problem with this is that it can sacrifice our national interests — and our sovereignty — abiding by international compacts that our enemies ignore, and our friends find preposterous. For example, the Chinese have zero intent of following the U.S. into the abyss of "net zero" green energy policy. To keep their economy growing, they are building coal plants right and left. Yet, Biden persists in thinking that he and other leaders of developed nations can establish global "norms" by pledging to follow the dictates of Davos. This is like the little kid sitting in a grocery cart who thinks he is steering down the aisle. By following these impulses to 1) do nothing and 2) tell everyone else what to do, Biden believes he is reducing risk and making a better world. In reality, what he has is a schizophrenic foreign policy that has increased global risk and left our friends and allies dazed and confused. The most recent victim of this approach was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Her trip to Taiwan was important. And the stakes were high. China is America’s No. 1 threat, and Taiwan is the most serious issue that divides us. One would think every step the president would take would be serious, deliberate and proactive, because that is how serious people deal with serious risks. Not Joe. His first instinct was to try to make the problem go away. So, he asked Pelosi to cancel the visit. This would have been a big slap in the face to Taiwan and a huge loss of face for the U.S. When Pelosi refused, Biden then called Chinese President Xi Jinping and, after meekly reassuring him that the U.S. still clings to the "One China Policy." asked him to back down from his regime’s saber-rattling rhetoric opposing the trip. Again, no effect. Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), center, receives the Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon, Taiwan’s highest civilian honour, from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, right, at the president's office on August 03, 2022, in Taipei, Taiwan. Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday as part of a tour of Asia aimed at reassuring allies in the region, as China made it clear that her visit to Taiwan would be seen in a negative light. (Handout/Getty Images)CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTERIndeed, throughout the crisis, Biden came across — to China, to Taiwan, to Pelosi and the rest of the world — as little more than a do-nothing Bystander-in-Chief. (Though, in fairness, he did tweet afterward.) Once Pelosi left, China ramped-up its "wolf warrior" diplomacy ringing Taiwan with live fire drills. The administration response was mostly finger-waving at the Chinese, tut-tutting that they were not following the international norms as approved by our globalist overlords in Davos. Beijing must still be laughing. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPBut this is no laughing matter. Just ask Ukraine. When Putin threatened to invade, Biden tried the mix of do nothing, threatening with a handful of sanctions, and finger-waving about international norms. Rather than being deterred, Russia started a war that has harmed our economy and lowered our national security. When will U.S. foreign policy get better instead of worse? The answer is: When the administration starts dealing with risks, rather than ignoring them. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM JAMES JAY CARAFANO James Jay Carafano is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies The Heritage Foundation. Follow him on Twitter @JJCarafano. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden spoke by phone Tuesday with Polish President Andrzej Duda after a deadly explosion occurred near Poland's border with Ukraine, the White House said in a statement.In a readout of the call, the White House said Biden “offered full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO.” The two leaders also agreed to remain in “close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds,” the White House said.Biden is in Bali, Indonesia, for the annual Group of 20 summit. The White House said his call with Duda concluded at 5:30 am local time.The president later spoke by phone with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the White House said.The call between Biden and Duda came shortly after the Polish government convened an emergency security and defense meeting and decided to increase its military readiness after an explosion in the southeastern village of Przewodów killed two people.It was not immediately clear what caused the blast, but it followed an intense wave of Russian airstrikes on cities across Ukraine on Tuesday, forcing widespread blackouts and hitting residential buildings in the capital, Kyiv.Russia has pushed back against suggestions that the explosion was caused by Russian missiles landing inside Polish borders.“The statements of the Polish media and officials about the alleged fall of ‘Russian’ missiles in the area of the settlement of Przewodów, is a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation,” the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement on Telegram, referring to the village widely reported to have been hit. Russian President Vladimir Putin decided not to attend this year’s G20 meeting, instead sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to represent the Russian delegation.National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Tuesday afternoon that the White House was aware of the reports out of Poland and was working with the Polish government “to gather more information.” She said that national security adviser Jake Sullivan had spoken with Chief of the National Security Bureau of Poland Jacek Siewiera, but said that they could not confirm any details of the event at that time.Biden, who was briefed about the explosion as he woke up in Bali on Wednesday morning, is expected to depart Indonesia on Wednesday to travel back to Washington.Following the isolationist foreign policy approach of his predecessor Donald Trump, Biden has sought to position himself as a champion of U.S. alliances, including NATO.Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, Biden has repeatedly spoken about the strength of the NATO alliance and has said the “United States will defend every inch of NATO territory.”Lauren Egan is a White House reporter for NBC News based in Washington. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Federal lawmakers are demanding action to counter the "threat" posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon was detected moving over northern states this week.
Members of Congress in both parties are calling the spy balloon an unacceptable violation of U.S. airspace and American sovereignty. The chairman and ranking member of the new select committee on China, Reps. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., and Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., put out a joint statement Thursday condemning China ahead of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart.
"The Chinese Communist Party should not have on-demand access to American airspace. Not only is this a violation of American sovereignty, coming only days before Secretary Blinken's trip to the PRC, but it also makes clear that the CCP's recent diplomatic overtures do not represent a substantive change in policy. Indeed, this incident demonstrates that the CCP threat is not confined to distant shores – it is here at home and we must act to counter this threat," the lawmakers said.
The House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party was formed with broad bipartisan support last month. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said the U.S. is in a "new Cold War" with China, and Republicans promised to establish the panel in the 118th Congress as a formal response to Chinese military and economic aggression.
CHINESE SPY BALLOON: HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN MCCARTHY ASKS FOR GANG OF EIGHT BRIEFING AFTER FLYING OBJECT FOUND OVER US
On Thursday, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder announced that the government detected a high-altitude surveillance balloon over the continental U.S.
Ryder said the government was closely monitoring the balloon and that it "does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground."
"Instances of this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years. Once the balloon was detected, the U.S. government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information," Ryder said.
A senior defense official said the balloon was believed to have originated in China and that officials were considering shooting it down, but were reluctant to do so because of the risk of injuring people below with falling debris. President Biden was briefed on the situation and had asked for military options.
Chinese officials said their government is investigating reports of the suspected spy balloon and denied having any "intention to violate the territory and airspace of any sovereign countries."
In response to the report, Speaker McCarthy requested a Gang of Eight briefing for Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders.
Rank-and-file Republican lawmakers are up in arms, accusing the Biden administration of encouraging Chinese aggression with weak foreign policy.
"It’s unacceptable to allow communist China to invade our airspace — this is another clear example of Chinese aggression. President Biden must start putting the American people first and recognize that China is a threat to our freedom, values, and way of life," said Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican who represents Montana.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., tweeted, "Xi is blatantly spying on America because he does not fear or respect [President Biden]. Communist China is our enemy, and Biden needs to wake up and start acting like it."
"Shoot. It. Down," said Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont. "The Chinese spy balloon is clear provocation. In Montana we do not bow. We shoot it down. Take the shot."
Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee urged Secretary Blinken to confront China during his upcoming trip to Beijing and present a full report to Congress when he returns.
"This is a brazen violation of U.S. airspace and Americans’ privacy– and yet another example of China’s growing military aggression," Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, said. "With [Blinken] traveling to Asia this week, it's imperative he tells Chairman Xi and his government that their military adventurism will no longer be tolerated."
Fox News' Adam Sabes contributed to this report. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
CAIRO (AP) — Weapons supplied by the United Kingdom and the United States and used by a Saudi-led coalition fighting in war-torn Yemen killed at least 87 civilians and wounded 136 others in just over a year, a new report said Wednesday.
The report by the Oxfam charity found that the Saudi-led coalition used weapons supplied solely by the U.K. and the U.S. in hundreds of attacks on civilians in Yemen between January 2021 and the end of February 2022. Britain is the second-biggest supplier of weapons to Saudi Arabia, after the U.S.
Yemen’s war began when the Iran-backed Houthis seized the country’s capital, Sanaa, in September 2014 and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. A Saudi-led coalition — armed with U.S. and U.K. weaponry and intelligence — entered the war on the side of Yemen’s exiled government in March 2015.
Oxfam’s report comes ahead of a legal challenge by the Campaign Against Arms Trade, a group of anti-weapons campaigners, against the U.K. government for supplying weapons used in Yemen’s war. The charity says it provides witness in support of the challenge.
Responding to an inquiry by The Associated Press, a spokesperson for Britain’s Department for International Trade said it operates “one of the most robust and transparent export control regimes in the world.”
“We consider all our export applications thoroughly against a strict risk assessment framework and keep all licenses under careful and continual review as standard,” the spokesperson said.
A spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition was not immediately available for comment.
The court battle by the anti-weapons campaigners is years old. The Court of Appeal in London ruled in 2019 that the British government acted unlawfully in selling weapons to Saudi Arabia that were used in the Yemen war. The court, however, did not order a halt to the exports to the Gulf Arab kingdom.
WATCH: In foreign policy shift, Biden lifts terrorist designation for Houthis in Yemen
Oxfam’s report portrayed a grim picture.
Martin Butcher, Oxfam’s policy advisor on arms and conflict and author of the report, said they analyzed 1,727 attacks on civilians in Yemen’s war during the 14-month period, with the Saudi-led coalition, using weapons supplied by the U.K. and the U.S., being responsible for a quarter of all attacks.
“It’s just so relentless,” Butcher told the AP. “People just find it so hard to escape the violence and the killing.”
The 43-page report said the analyzed attacks killed at least 839 civilians and wounded 1,775 others. Of all the attacks by the Saudi-led coalition during the 14-month period, airstrikes alone killed at least 87 civilians and wounded 136, the report found. The rest of the attacks were artillery, missiles and drone attacks, as well as from land mines, road bombs and light arms.
The report found that airstrikes and artillery attacks involved cluster munitions, “weapons banned by international convention and customary law.”
The charity counted at least 19 attacks by the coalition on health facilities and ambulances. It said 293 airstrikes forced people to flee their homes.
The report’s findings were no surprise to Abdulaziz Jubari, deputy parliament speaker in Yemen’s government, which is backed by the international community.
“It’s very obvious to everyone that these groups obtain U.S. weapons,” said Jubari, a critic of the Saudi-led coalition and other foreign influence in Yemen’s war. Jubari spoke in Washington, where he was attending a conference on the stalled Yemeni peace process. His hope, he said, was that the U.S. would recall its pledges of ethical conduct in the Yemen conflict.
All parties to the war have been accused of killing and wounding civilians in Yemen’s eight-year conflict. Overall, the war has killed more than 150,000 people, including over 14,500 civilians, according to The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. It has also created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Oxfam also accused the British government of turning a blind eye to the Saudi-led coalition attacks in Yemen. The charity said U.K. imposed sanctions on Russian officials over attacks on civilians in Ukraine, while continuing to defend arms sale to the Gulf monarchy to use in Yemen’s war.
This is “a clear demonstration of double standards and politicization of the law for reasons of national interest,” it said.
Butcher called on the U.K. government to “immediately stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen,” and to promote a permanent cease-fire and negotiations for a long-term settlement through its position as a member of the U.N. Security Council.
“They’ve (the government) really been not only arming Saudi Arabia, but also very reluctant to use their position in the Security Council to push for peace,” he said.
Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Ellen Knickmeyer in Washington contributed to this report. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
President Joe Biden voted 20 years ago to go to war in Iraq. Unlike Hillary Clinton, this did not prevent him from subsequently reaching the White House. The vote has so far been a mixed bag in terms of predicting his actions as commander in chief.
Biden was widely viewed as a standard liberal hawk during his 36 years in the Senate, though he often went with the Democratic flow. He voted against the first Gulf War, but afterward lambasted President George H.W. Bush for not going all the way to Baghdad and deposing Saddam Hussein. Iraq was a large part of the case progressives made against Biden in the 2020 Democratic primaries, to little effect.
Whatever can be said for Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, he did not govern as a liberal hawk when ending America's longest war. His approach to the war in Ukraine, where he has sought to increase the costs of Russia’s invasion without involving U.S. or NATO forces directly in the fighting, is more complicated.
On Ukraine, Biden has been criticized both for drawing the United States into a proxy war with nuclear-armed Russia with no limiting principle or endgame and also for being too diffident to help Kyiv achieve victory.
The president’s travel schedule illustrates the tension. Biden was criticized for being among the last national leaders to visit Kyiv and meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. When he finally did so while in Europe for broader international talks, he was pilloried for not being in East Palestine to survey the Ohio train derailment wreckage instead.
Some of this reflects divisions in the Republican Party independent of Biden’s own policies. There is a burgeoning populist movement within the GOP, boosted by former President Donald Trump, that has joined with the libertarian wing in expressing skepticism of foreign aid and wars. But there remain influential hawks inside the party who tend to view Biden’s foreign policy as too weak.
The latter group of Republican lawmakers took the lead in denouncing Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is now under investigation by the new House majority. But even Republicans who agreed with the underlying policy, such as Trump, whose administration had negotiated an even more aggressive withdrawal timeline, panned the execution.
“Today, the terrorist threat has metastasized beyond Afghanistan,” Biden said when announcing his withdrawal decision. “So, we are repositioning our resources and adapting our counterterrorism posture to meet the threats where they are now significantly higher: in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.”
Biden voted to authorize the war in Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but his role in the Iraq War was greater. He not only voted to permit the invasion, but as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he played a large role in securing the expansive authorization for use of military force that President George W. Bush sought to pursue regime change.
Biden and other top Democrats who voted to allow the war, which included half the Senate Democratic caucus at the time, were at least as important to the invasion taking place as Vice President Dick Cheney and his allies.
“In my judgment, President Bush is right to be concerned about Saddam Hussein’s relentless pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and the possibility that he may use them or share them with terrorists. These weapons must be dislodged from Saddam Hussein, or Saddam Hussein must be dislodged from power," Biden said.
As he did with the first Gulf War, Biden eventually repudiated his vote when it became unpopular. Then as president, he sought to complete the conversion with a pivot away from the Middle East, this time maintaining his position in the face of intense public backlash.
“When I made the decision to end the U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, I judged that it was not in the national interest of the United States of America,” Biden said, invoking realist arguments against a continued military presence there.
What happens in Ukraine may be more indicative of the continuity between Biden’s Iraq War vote and his presidential record. There, much of the story remains to be written.
Biden’s assumption of so great a portion of Ukraine’s defense costs while leaving the endgame substantially up to Kyiv has opened him up to charges of missing an opportunity for greater burden-sharing with European allies. His reluctance to provide offensive weaponry has other detractors calling into question his commitment to Russia's defeat.
Members of both camps are fond of quoting former Defense Secretary Robert Gates. "I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” he wrote in 2014. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
FILE – The U.S. special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley is shown in Vienna, Austria, June 20, 2021. A top Biden administration official on Monday, Oct. 31, 2022, pushed back against growing criticism from Iranian American activists who are calling on the White House to abandon its efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal. Malley said that the administration “makes no apology” for “trying to do everything we can to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” (AP Photo/Florian Schroetter, File) Mass protests recently erupted in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran’s morality police for incorrectly wearing her head covering. She was kidnapped from the streets, beaten in custody, and died without a credible explanation from the Iranian government. As protests surged, the Iranian regime cracked down. They fired indiscriminately at protestors and left hundreds dead. This is the reoccurring face of an ugly regime we cannot forget. In light of the government’s violent retaliation, we find it inexcusable that the Biden administration has been intent on reviving the weak Iran Nuclear Deal. The deal would strengthen the Ayatollah’s geopolitical grip and further perpetuate their consistent pattern of abuse within the region. When the Ayatollahs win, America loses. Though inexcusable, it is not surprising. As Isaac Schorr observed in National Review, Biden has surrounded himself with devotees of former President Obama’s progressive foreign policy, who are “so blindly committed to the mistaken belief that the Iranian regime can be anything but an enemy of the United States that they are willing to throw the Iranian people under the bus amidst a brutal crackdown on protesters.” While the State Department announced recently that the pursuit of the Iran Nuclear Deal is “not our focus right now,” America should send a powerful message to Iran by terminating nuclear negotiations altogether. Failure to do so will only embolden the Ayatollahs. They are encouraged in their execution of trade deals with America’s foreign adversaries; they fuel China’s ambitions to become a global superpower and fill gaps in Russia’s military infrastructure deployed in its war against Ukraine, including deadly drones and other hi-tech military hardware. If the Biden administration attempts to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal, it will award Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, global legitimacy. We cannot allow that to happen. The next time this administration attempts to revive a deal with the Iranian regime, we must remember the faces of the brave Iranian women as they stood up against their oppressors. They risked their lives pursuing the freedoms and values that make up the foundation of our republic. They fight for free speech, the freedom to determine their destiny and to worship as their conscience dictates. We must ask ourselves if it’s right to legitimize a regime capable of inflicting cruelty and violence on their people because they pursued values so familiar to ours. To be clear, we must respect the sovereignty of Iran. But we can respect the sovereignty of Iran while recognizing the heroic bravery of those protesting against a repressive government. We can speak out against injustice when a hostile government abuses its power. It is in America’s best interest to recognize the brave women of Iran for standing up against their oppressors. Iran has so much untapped potential. The people of Iran are young, educated, and completely at odds with their government. Despite this, Iran’s parliament reports 70 percent of Iranians live below the poverty line. Rather than harnessing the true potential of the Iranian people, the Ayatollahs perceive their youthful exuberance as a threat to their political survival. This perspective is incompatible with peace in the region. We hope the Biden administration will recognize that the current Iranian regime is not a partner the United States can trust. To stand with the people of Iran is to stand against the legitimization of a brutal dictator. We expect that when this administration says the revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal is no longer a focus, it remains out of focus indefinitely. Mike Lee is the senior United States senator from Utah. Chris Stewart represents Utah’s 2nd District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Khosrow B. Semnani is an Iranian-American industrialist, community leader and philanthropist who resides in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is the author of “Where is My Oil? Corruption in Iran’s Oil and Gas Industry.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Peru’s recent impeachment of President Pedro Castillo represents an opportunity for the U.S. to reset its geopolitical and economic relations with one of its most important allies in Latin America. Peru has enjoyed an impressive track record of economic growth based on free-market reforms, and a particularly close relationship with the U.S. However, Castillo's election posed a threat to that relationship, as his Marxist-oriented ideology threatened the economy, while his foreign policy signaled a major shift towards anti-American interests."Castillo posed an institutional menace on an altogether different scale," Daniel Raisbeck, a Latin American political analyst at the Cato Institute, told Fox News Digital. "To begin with, his party’s program for the 2021 election included numerous measures that explicitly sought to violate the constitution’s unequivocal safeguards for private property, which it declares ‘inviolable.'"Observers say Castillo's impeachment by Peru's Congress this week sent a damning message to Latin America's left that attempts to play fast and loose with the rules will be met with a stern institutional response. PERU BOOTS PRESIDENT OVER ATTEMPT TO DISSOLVE CONGRESS, NEW LEADER SWORN IN Former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo was impeached by the country's Congress on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Martin Mejia, File)By threatening to shut down Congress, rule by decree and rewrite the Constitution, Castillo emulated his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro, who used similar maneuvers to effectively sideline the National Assembly, and then used a hand-picked constituent assembly to ram through a new Constitution, granting him near-absolute power. The Peruvian people and its institutions sent a resounding message calling for respect for the rule of law and adherence to Constitutional order.Castillo hailed from the Peru Libre, an openly Marxist political party, and took inspiration from such leaders as Fidel Castro and Vladimir Lenin. To say that business leaders and investors were concerned with the prospect of a Castillo mandate would be an understatement.Raisbeck said that Castillo was a clear and present danger to the Peruvian economy. "The constitution also guarantees free enterprise, foreign investment, and press freedom. Castillo’s platform, on the other hand, set out an agenda of nationalizing the mining sector and other major industries, expropriating land and getting rid of Peru’s successful private pension system," he explained.As Peru's Congress proceeded on Wednesday with a third impeachment attempt, Castillo took to national television to announce its dissolution, pledging to call for a new Constitutional assembly and temporarily rule by decree in a move emulating his Venezuelan counterpart Maduro.However, Castillo appeared to have badly miscalculated his levels of institutional support, and his surprise announcement prompted a massive resignation on the part of his cabinet and a stern call from the Attorney General to respect the Constitutional order.PERU'S PRESIDENT DISSOLVES CONGRESS AHEAD OF 3RD REMOVAL TRY Dina Boluarte, right, greets members of the Peruvian Congress after being sworn in as the new president hours after former President Pedro Castillo was impeached on Wednesday. (CRIS BOURONCLE/AFP via Getty Images)Finally, in swift succession, his own vice president, Dina Boluarte, publicly condemned Castillo’s actions:"I reject the decision by Pedro Castillo to perpetrate a rupture in the Constitutional order by closing Congress. This represents a coup, and aggravates the institutional political crisis that Peruvian society can only overcome by strictly adhering to the law."Peru has enjoyed an impressive track record of economic growth based on free-market-oriented reforms. Yet, the election of the far-left Castillo followed a regional trend, as the Latin American left has enjoyed a powerful resurgence over the last few years, winning the vast majority of important elections, albeit it often by narrow margins, racking up important victories in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia.Following Lula da Silva’s narrow victory in Brazil’s presidential election in October, Argentine Congressman Javier Milei, a frequent critic of the region's left, tweeted out a meme deeming Latin America to be the USSR — the "Union of South American Socialist Republics."Castillo’s desperate attempt to cling to power echoes similar tactics previously used by Latin American despots: attempting to shut down opposition bodies, ruling by decree and calling for new "constituent assemblies" to rewrite the Constitution in their favor. Castillo’s short tenure as president featured numerous corruption investigations involving charges of graft and self-dealing. More serious charges have now emerged against him and close allies alleging ties to the Shining Path, a Marxist guerrilla group based in the south of Peru, which once controlled vast swaths of the country.COLOMBIA ELECTS FORMER REBEL GUSTAVO PETRO TO BECOME COUNTRY'S FIRST LEFTIST PRESIDENT Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador recently said Peru's former president Pedro Castillo had told him he would request asylum in Mexico. (REUTERS/Edgard Garrido/File Photo)Castillo was arrested late Wednesday afternoon in Lima, and charged with rebellion and breaking the Constitutional order. His current whereabouts remain unclear. Mexico's foreign minister recently announced that they are considering an offer of asylum to the ex-president.Rossy Saavedra Medina, who lives in the Lima neighborhood of Magdalena del Mar, called on the new president to focus on the economy. "The economy has to get back to normal now… in the last few months, it has been the poor who have suffered the most," she told Fox News Digital.Juan Antonio Castro, a retired math professor and dual U.S.-Peruvian citizen, told Fox News Digital that Castillo "seemed to be a corrupt individual trying to enrich himself and his family… Why do people vote for these candidates? It’s the same thing we saw happening in Venezuela."Protesters had gathered in various points in Lima to protest against Castillo’s arrest. Some of the protests at times turning violent as they clashed with police outside the Congress building.CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPInterim president Boluarte, who hails from the southern region of Apurimac, is viewed by observers as something of a blank slate, and it remains unclear how she intends to govern. While she was elected on the ticket of Castillo’s Peru Libre Party, which espouses Marxist origins, she was later expelled from the organization by party bosses when she declared that she did not plan to adhere to the party’s doctrine. David Unsworth reports on Latin America. You can follow David Unsworth on Twitter @LatinAmerUpdate | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
© Via Twitter Screencap The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained The long-standing conflict between neighboring former Soviet Republics Armenia and Azerbaijan blew up early Tuesday, with Armenia claiming 49 of its troops were killed, Azerbaijan claiming 50 of its troops killed, and each side blaming the other for sparking this latest round of bloodshed. Armenia said that shortly after midnight Tuesday local time, it was attacked by Azerbaijani forces using “artillery, mortars, drones and large-caliber rifles in the directions of Vardenis, Sotk, Artanish, Ishkhanasar, Goris and Kapan, targeting both military and civilian infrastructures.” Heavy artillery fire being reported from Azerbaijan towards Armenia. pic.twitter.com/q3uNO4mJHi— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) September 12, 2022 Azerbaijani officials said its military was responding to Armenian mine-laying operations and ongoing shelling. The Russian Foreign Ministry said a ceasefire was agreed to at 9 a.m. Moscow time. © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained Though the situation remained tense as of Tuesday evening local time, both sides said the initial burst of kinetic action had subsided. Here's an updated map of the areas reportedly targeted by #Azerbaijan inside #Armenia during the ongoing military conflict that started 5 hours ago. pic.twitter.com/KEXIw6AoC0— Nagorno Karabakh Observer (@NKobserver) September 13, 2022 As of 2 p.m. local time Tuesday, “the situation in some parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border continues to be extremely tense,” the Armenian Defense Ministry said Tuesday. “Despite the significant reduction in the intensity of the shelling, the enemy continues attempting positional advancement, particularly in the direction of Nerkin Hand, Verin Shorzha, Artanish and Sotk. The units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia continue to complete the combat tasks set before them.” “The provocations committed by the Armenian armed forces on the border of the two states were prevented, and all relevant duties and tasks were fulfilled,” the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense said in a statement Tuesday. The incident, the worst fighting between the two since a 2020 war that killed thousands of troops and civilians, comes at a fraught time, with a very hot war between Russia and Ukraine waged some 600 miles to the northwest. © Provided by The Drive Relatives of servicemen, who were wounded in night border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, gather outside a military hospital in Yerevan on September 13, 2022. (Photo by Karen MINASYAN / AFP) (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images) Since there's already a lot of 'Armenia is a Russian ally and therefore deserves to be attacked' takes floating around, a quick reminder to everyone that Azerbaijan signed its own alliance with Russia - 36 before the latter invaded Ukraine https://t.co/qRWrHOiNot— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 13, 2022 © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained Because of the region’s location, and the religious makeup of the combatants - Armenia is a majority Christian nation while Azerbaijan is a majority Muslim nation - clashes between the two well-armed nations generate global concerns. The two countries fall within the spheres of influence of Russia, Turkey and Iran and have each amassed arsenals of modern weaponry supplied by those nations, as well as the U.S. and Isreal, among others. Armenia and Azerbaijan are located in a region that includes Iran and Turkey and is close to Russia. (Google Earth image) Here are some of the additional details we know about the latest flare-up and its potential impact on the region and the world. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told his nation’s National Assembly on Tuesday that “the armed forces of Azerbaijan took offensive actions in the direction of the Republic of Armenia. Azerbaijan tries to present that these actions were in response to the provocations of the Armenian side. We must unequivocally record that this information is absolutely false, a lie and does not correspond to reality.” © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained #BREAKING: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan: "49 of our soldiers were killed. This number may increase." pic.twitter.com/9WSuVn6Jtt— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) September 13, 2022 "As of now, we have 49 victims confirmed by the Ministry of Defense,” he added. “And as long as there are such people who are ready to put their lives in danger at a decisive moment, even to sacrifice for the sake of the motherland, it means that the Republic of Armenia has and will have sovereignty, the Armenian statehood will be permanent, and the people of Armenia will be able to be proud of their children.” As of the time of Pashinyan’s statements, “the intensity of combat operations has decreased, but the offensive operations of Azerbaijan continue in one or two directions. The RA Ministry of Defense [and] the General Staff are assessing the situation, the losses, and the adjusted information will be published officially.” Relatives of servicemen, who were wounded in night border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, gather outside a military hospital in Yerevan on September 13, 2022. (Photo by Karen Minasyan/AFP via Getty Images) In the wake of this latest incident, Armenia appealed to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and also reached out to Moscow, as well as several other nations, including “the President of France, the President of the Republic of Iran, the U.S. Secretary of State, and the President of the Council of the European Union." The United States is deeply concerned about reports of active hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We urge an end to military hostilities immediately. There is no military solution to the conflict. https://t.co/cGeWXpbzKS— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) September 13, 2022 "The Minister of Defense had a conversation with his Russian counterpart, and work is being done in these directions to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible,” Pashinyan added. Azerbaijan, however, said its attack was designed to halt Armenian forces from planting land mines and that “the Armenian side's regular shelling of Azerbaijan Army positions is to delay the signing of a peace treaty, as well as large-scale restoration and construction work carried out in the liberated territories.” © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan: Armenian armed forces have committed large-scale provocation in the directions of Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin. Our forces are responding https://t.co/fPnQKepAsE #Caucasus— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) September 12, 2022 “By laying mines in Azerbaijani territories and on the supply roads, the opposing side demonstrates behavior contrary to the statement,” Chief of the International Military Cooperation Department of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Huseyn Mahmudov, said Tuesday at a briefing of foreign military attaches. “This is evidence confirming Armenia's military adventurism and revanchist position.” During the night of September 12, “the Armenian armed forces units committed large-scale provocations in the Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin directions of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border,” the Azerbaijanian Ministry of Defense (MOD) said in a statement. “At night, the sabotage groups of the Armenian armed forces using the mountainous terrain of the area and the existing ravine gaps mined the territories and supply roads between the positions of the Azerbaijan Army Units in different directions.” Chief of the International Military Cooperation Department of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Huseyn Mahmudov, briefed military attachés accredited to the Republic of Azerbaijan on Sept. 13. (Azerbaijan Defense Ministry photo) The confrontation was the result of “urgent measures taken by the Azerbaijan Army Units in order to immediately suppress these actions. The Armenian armed forces stationed in the directions of Basarkechar, Istisu, Garakilsa and Gorus settlements using various caliber weapons and mortars subjected to intensive fire some positions, shelters and strongholds of the Azerbaijan Army in the territory of Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions.” © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained As a result, “there were losses among the military personnel, the military infrastructure was damaged,” the Azerbaijanian MOD said, adding that at least 50 of its troops were killed. “The Azerbaijan Army Units deployed in these directions are taking decisive retaliatory measures in order to suppress provocations committed by the Armenian armed forces and military threats to the territory and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, to ensure the safety of the military personnel, including civilian workers involved in infrastructure work in the territory of Kalbajar and Lachin regions. © Provided by The Drive The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained The Azerbaijan Defense Ministry. (Azerbaijan Defense Ministry photo) What’s It All About? The crux of this conflict is the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is located inside the borders of Azerbaijan and is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory. However, its population of about 150,000 are mostly ethnic Armenians who see themselves “as a de facto independent republic, with its own parliament, president and army,” according to the Lawfare blog. Here's an updated map of the areas reportedly targeted by #Azerbaijan inside #Armenia during the ongoing military conflict that started 5 hours ago. pic.twitter.com/KEXIw6AoC0— Nagorno Karabakh Observer (@NKobserver) September 13, 2022 Over the years, the enclave has been referred to variously as the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR) or the Republic of Artsakh. The conflict “extends beyond an internal fight between Azerbaijan and a breakaway republic. Armenia does not claim ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh but considers itself the guarantor of the security of the ethnic Armenians living in the region and is NKR’s lifeline to the outside world,” according to the Lawfare blog. Enmity over this enclave began after the Russian Revolution in 1917 and continues to this day. When the Soviet Union took control of the Caucuses, “Nagorno-Karabakh was ultimately placed within the boundaries of Soviet Azerbaijan — though it was granted autonomous status as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO). The oblast’s borders were drawn such that they were not contiguous with the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR),” the Lawfare blog states. “During Mikhail Gorbachev’s era of perestroika and glasnost toward the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, the regional government once again demanded a transfer to Armenia, passing a resolution in its representative body in 1988.” But despite the USSR’s policy of increased democratic openness, “the response from the Azerbaijani authorities was heavy-handed. In February 1988, the Sumgait massacre saw hundreds of Armenian civilians indiscriminately killed, raped, maimed and burned alive. In 1990, the Baku pogrom resulted in the beating, killing, and otherwise expulsion of all Armenians from Azerbaijan’s capital city,” Lawfare states. Ethnic Armenians declared the region to be an independent state in 1991 amid the collapse of the Soviet Union. This led to an all-out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Though a ceasefire deal came into effect in 1994, there have been major outbreaks of fighting, as well as persistent low-level skirmishing, since then. There were relatively large clashes in 2016, a worrisome burst of violence in July of 2020 and a full-scale war that November. You can read more about our coverage of that conflict here. Regional Conflict, Global Concerns Russia considers the region, located in the Southern Caucuses, as its “near abroad,” brokering cease-fires each time the conflict escalates but also selling arms to both sides. Iran, on the border of both nations, considers the region an area of interest as well. Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that Iran will not accept any changes in the borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. FM Spox: #Iran not to accept any change in #Armenia-#Azerbaijan borders https://t.co/3Xz3kxopbF pic.twitter.com/ssdHsiLveD— Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (@Iran_GOV) September 13, 2022 And Turkey, which borders Armenia, said on Tuesday it continued to back Azerbaijan and called on Armenia to "cease its provocations" after clashes erupted between the two South Caucasus countries that resumed decades-old hostilities, according to Reuters. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar held talks with Azeri counterpart Zakir Hasanov, the ministry said. "He emphasized that Turkey has always stood by brotherly Azerbaijan and will continue to stand by it in its just causes," it said. Turkey backs Azerbaijan, says Armenia 'should cease provocations' https://t.co/xo98BRFqCF pic.twitter.com/5oADMrT81v— Reuters (@Reuters) September 13, 2022 There is growing concern that Russia, which has been suffering large-scale defeats in Ukraine, might use this conflict to deflect attention. Blinken now says US concerned about Russia "stirring the pot" between Armenia & Azerbaijan to distract from Ukraine.“Whether Russia tries in some fashion to stir the pot, to create a distraction from Ukraine, is something we’re always concerned about."— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) September 13, 2022 "Whether Russia tries in some fashion to stir the pot, to create a distraction from Ukraine, is something we're always concerned about," Blinken told reporters at an event in Indiana, according to Reuters. He added that Russia could also use its influence in the region to help "calm the waters." That appears to be the case based on the brokered ceasefire, but it is still just hours old. Huge Arms Market Last year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) examined arms supplies to both sides during the November 2020 conflict. “SIPRI estimates that over the decade 2011–20 Russia was the largest exporter of major arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. It supplied nearly all of Armenia’s major arms during the period and almost two-thirds of Azerbaijan’s. Israel, Belarus and Turkey were, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest suppliers of major arms to Azerbaijan in 2011–20.” The Khrizantema-S self-propelled anti-tank missile system is among the many weapons shipped from Russia to Azerbaijan. (Rosoboronexport photo( Despite Russia “acting as a leading mediator in the conflict between the two countries, in 2011–20, it accounted for 94 percent of Armenia’s imports of major arms and 60 percent of Azerbaijan’s,” SIPRI reported. "The Russians provided Armenia with armored personnel carriers, air defense systems and multiple rocket launchers and tanks — all of which were used in the 2020 war. Russia’s supplies to Azerbaijan included armored vehicles, air defense systems, transport and combat helicopters, artillery, multiple rocket launchers and tanks. All of these weapon types were used during the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh." Israel accounted for 27 percent of Azerbaijan’s imports of major arms between 2011 and 2020. “Most of these deliveries took place in 2016–20," SIPRI reported. "While there is sufficient information available publicly to determine the types of weapons supplied by Israel to Azerbaijan, little is known about the actual number of arms transferred. Of the major arms supplied by Israel, loitering munitions, reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), guided missiles and ballistic missiles were known to have been used in the 2020 war with Armenia as well as during some of the earlier border skirmishes.” The IAI Heron TP is a multi-role, advanced, long-range Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) sold by Israel to Azerbaijan. (IAI photo). The weapons tracking group Oryxspioenkop.com's website offers a detailed breakdown of Israeli arms shipments to Azerbaijan here. Of them, probably the most high-profile has been the loitering munitions which had a devastating impact, both physically and mentally, during the 2020 war. SIPRI estimates that arms exports to Azerbaijan accounted for 17 percent of Israel’s total exports of major arms in 2016–20, showing the growing importance of Azerbaijan to the Israeli arms industry. “In 2016 President Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan had spent $5 billion on military equipment from Israel. There is some speculation as to whether economic revenue is the primary driver for Israel’s ongoing arms transfers to Azerbaijan or if there are other major motives, such as Israel’s dependence on oil from Azerbaijan or a shared threat perception towards Iran." Between 2011 and 2021, Belarus accounted for 7.1 percent of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports. It supplied a few ground attack aircraft, air defense systems, tanks, artillery, and guided rockets. “Such arms supplies have become an important part of the relations between the two countries, not in the least due to Belarus’s growing demand for Azerbaijani oil in an attempt to become less dependent on Russian oil,” SIPRI reported. The two countries also cooperate in combat training and operational planning; further military and technical cooperation may have included the supply of military equipment or repair and maintenance services for such equipment. Turkey accounted for 2.9 percent of Azerbaijan’s imports of major arms over the decade 2011–20. Deliveries from Turkey to Azerbaijan in this period included armored patrol vehicles, rocket artillery, missiles, and armed UAVs. Azerbaijan TB2 drone striking Armenia artillery position. pic.twitter.com/SfHfXfEGMA— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@tinso_ww) September 13, 2022 “The armed UAVs, which were delivered shortly before the 2020 war, included at least five Bayraktar-TB2 UAVs armed with MAM-L guided bombs," according to SIPRI. "The use of these UAVs during the war received significant international attention. While it is unclear whether and how Azerbaijan used other major arms supplied by Turkey in the 2020 war, some reports do suggest their involvement. For example, Turkish-supplied TRG-300 multiple rocket launchers were reported to be located in positions of strategic importance for Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.” Turkey’s arms transfers to Azerbaijan “seem to be linked not only to the strong economic ties and cultural links between the two countries but also to Turkey’s broader foreign policy interests. Through strengthening relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey also appears to be expanding its political presence in the South Caucasus—notably in competition with Russia, currently the dominant power in the region.” In October 2020, The War Zone reported that satellite imagery showed F-16 Viper fighter jets belonging to the Turkish Air Force at Ganja International Airport in Azerbaijan. This is the first hard evidence that at least some of these jets were in that country after fighting erupted between it and its neighbor Armenia over the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. A close up of a portion of Ganja international airport showing two F-16 Viper fighter jets and what looks to be a CN-235 light transport aircraft., PHOTO © 2020 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION You can read more about that here. The U.S., by comparison, sold both sides “nearly equal amounts of military equipment,” according to the Armenian EVN News Foundation. “According to the latest data, made public in the 2020 Historical Sales Book, published by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. has sold nearly equal amounts of military equipment to Armenia and Azerbaijan. The data indicates that Armenia has received $51.1 million in military sales, with Azerbaijan at $56.2 million.” Though calm seems to have been largely restored, tensions are always simmering and we will keep a close watch on further developments. Contact the author: [email protected] | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
By Jorge Liboreiro • Updated: 22/09/2022 - 11:21 Vladimir Putin's plans to order a partial mobilisation of reserved army forces to bolster the war in Ukraine and organise "sham referenda" in the country's occupied territories are grounds for a new round of EU sanctions, Ursula von der Leyen has said.Western leaders fear Putin will use the referenda as an excuse to claim Ukraine's eastern and southern fronts as integral parts of Russia, mirroring the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea.At the same time, the Russian leader intends to bring up to 300,000 reserved forces into the Russian army through a decree of partial mobilisation, a move that experts see as a reaction to the lightning counteroffensive recently launched by Ukraine."President Putin is showing his weakness now because what you see is that he plans to mobilise personnel that is less trained, less experienced, less motivated. And he wants to start sham referendum on Ukrainian sovereign soil," the European Commission president told CNN during her visit to New York City, where she attended the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly."So, I think this calls for sanctions from our part, again."After the interview with CNN, a spokesperson for von der Leyen shared a statement explaining the new penalties will focus on "individuals and entities" that support the invasion of Ukraine and on "additional export controls on civilian technology as Russia moves to a full war economy."The Commission has yet to provide further details.Since 24 February, the EU has imposed six rounds of sanctions against Russia, together with complementary measures to increase their efficiency and a long list of blacklisted high-profile people and companies.The sanctions include an embargo on oil and coal imports, an export ban on cutting-edge technology, severe restrictions on road and maritime transport, the expulsion of key Russian banks from the SWIFT system and the suspension of state-owned media outlets accused of spreading disinformation and pro-war propaganda.But despite the radical measures, the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight."The sanctions have been very successful," von der Leyen said."If you look at the Russian economy, the industry is in tatters. We see that they have a really hard time to replenish their armed forces because the military complex has big difficulties, for example, with semiconductors [that] we’re not delivering anymore. The aerial float is basically grounded. So all these signs show that sanctions are really biting."Also in New York City was Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, who on Wednesday convened an unscheduled meeting of the bloc's foreign affairs ministers to discuss the latest developments.Borrell denounced the "illegal referenda" and Putin's veiled threats of using weapons of mass destruction while echoing von der Leyen's call for fresh sanctions."It is clear that Putin is trying to destroy Ukraine. He is trying to destroy the whole country by different means since he is failing militarily," Borrell said after the meeting. "We found that it is quite cynical and shocking to hear such threats during the week in which here, at the United Nations, the world community works together in order to build peace and progress. And, specifically on the World Peace Day – this is the day chosen by Putin to announce this decision." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Far-right activist Ali Alexander is pushing election conspiracy theories in Brazil. He called on the Brazilian military to start a coup and deny the election defeat of Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, a Trump ally and divisive far-right leader, has parroted MAGA election denial rhetoric. Loading Something is loading. Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Ali Alexander, the far-right activist who organized the "Stop the Steal" rally held just before the Capitol riot, is now egging on discussion of a coup in Brazil, calling on the Brazilian military to intervene in the election defeat of Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro."Take to the streets, brothers of Brazil! Military standby. Peacefully and patriotically!" Alexander wrote on the social-media app TruthSocial on Sunday evening.Alexander called for an "audit" on Brazil's presidential election and for the military to "arrest any bad guys on either side," echoing the election denial rhetoric spread by MAGA conspiracy theorists in recent years.—Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) October 31, 2022Bolsonaro, a divisive leader who has been president of Brazil since January 2019, lost his position by a narrow margin to leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday. Before the race concluded, concerns were already growing that Bolsonaro would lean into baseless election fraud claims if he were to lose — just as former President Donald Trump and his supporters have done in the US.Bolsonaro had earlier told reporters that Brazil's electoral process was "unbalanced" against him, while his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, called the defeated president a victim of "the greatest election fraud ever seen," per The Guardian.Alexander's claims on TruthSocial go one step further, with the conspiracy theorist attempting to baselessly mix President Joe Biden into his narrative.He posted a screenshot of a Foreign Policy article, which summarized a comprehensive diplomatic effort by US leaders to pressure Brazilian authorities into upholding Brazil's democracy and election results. Alexander misleadingly used the screenshot to support his baseless claim that the Biden administration rigged Brazil's election. Worries that Bolsonaro may instigate a coup to cement his power in Brazil stretch back to at least September 2021, when a group of local leftist leaders published an open letter warning of their suspicions that he was planning to transition a political rally into a hostile takeover — modeled after the Capitol riot.Alexander was banned from Twitter, Venmo, and Paypal in January 2021. Twitter said it banned him over tweets that glorify violence, while PayPal — which owns Venmo — said it banned him for violating its policies. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak says the Ukrainian government is close to reaching an agreement with Berlin over the delivery of Western-made battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. In an interview with the Welt am Sonntag newspaper, Podolyak said there had been progress in talks between the two countries. "I think that we will find a consensus with our German partners for the tanks," he said, adding: "We are ready to pay any price for the security of Europe. But help us with weapons." Ukraine has repeatedly asked for modern battle tanks as it seeks to recapture territory in the south and east of the country. "Germany could optimally help us in this with the Leopard and Marder tanks," Podolyak said. Berlin has so far declined these requests, saying no other ally has yet provided Western-made battle tanks. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany has sent Ukraine 30 decommissioned Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, 10 Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and three Mars multiple rocket launchers. Berlin has also taken part in weapons exchanges with third states. For example, Germany earlier this week delivered the first six of a total of 40 Marders to Greece. Under that deal, Greece then sent Ukraine additional tanks. Here are the other main headlines from the war in Ukraine on Sunday, October 30: EU urges Russia to resume role in Ukraine grain export deal The European Union has criticized Russia for pulling out of a crucial deal that allowed grain to be exported from Ukraine. Moscow announced the decision on Saturday, citing what it said was a Ukrainian drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. They also pointed at the UK as being involved in the attack, without providing details. "Russia's decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea deal puts at risks the main export route of much needed grain and fertilizers to address the global food crisis caused by its war against Ukraine," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted. "The EU urges Russia to revert its decision."Russia suspends grain deal with Ukraine To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The UN-brokered Black Sea deal was struck in July, ending a blockade that had prevented grain leaving Ukrainian ports following Russia's invasion. The halt in exports had caused major concerns about food security and famine in countries that depend on Ukrainian grain. More than 9 million tons of Ukrainian grain had already been exported under the agreement. Russia slams criticism over grain deal suspension Russia's ambassador to Washington on Sunday hit back at criticism following Moscow's decision to withdraw from the grain export deal with Ukraine. Earlier, US President Joe Biden said Russia's actions were "purely outrageous" and would increase starvation. Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said Washington's response to "the terrorist attack on the port of Sevastopol is truly outrageous." "We have not seen any signs of condemnation of the reckless actions by the Kyiv regime," he wrote on Telegram. Antonov also repeated Russian claims that "British military specialists" helped Ukraine carry out the drone attack on the Crimean port. Britain has firmly rejected the allegation, saying "the Russian Ministry of Defense is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale." Separately, France also dismissed the claims as unfounded. Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow would raise the alleged drone attack at the UN Security Council. Wagner group using ill prisoners in Ukraine: UK Defence Ministry The Wagner mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine is now recruiting "prisoners with serious medical conditions," according to the latest British intelligence assessment. The update from the UK Defence Ministry said Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may be considering using the new recruits to build a so-called "Wagner line" defensive position in eastern Ukraine. It said the criteria for admitting new fighters had been lowered significantly following heavy losses on the battlefield. Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive in the country's east last month in an effort to retake regions illegally annexed by Russia. More DW content on the war in Ukraine Around one million Ukrainian refugees have been registered in Germany. Finding living space for these newcomers, and providing adequate education and health care, is pushing some cities to their limits. nm/dj (AFP, AP, Reuters, dpa) | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Poland will today become the first country to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine, with the transfer taking place on the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The decision will be officially confirmed this afternoon by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who has already arrived in Kyiv on a previously unannounced visit.
This morning, Polish news website Onet, citing officials, reported that the first Polish Leopard tanks are already in Ukraine. Numerous other outlets – including Bloomberg as well as Poland’s PAP and AIR state press agencies – also cite officials saying that the transfer will be announced by Morawiecki today.
📍Ukraińska armia otrzymała już od Polski pierwszą partię czołgów Leopard 2 – potwierdziła Kancelaria Premiera w rozmowie z @wirtualnapolska.
Oficjalnie poinformować ma o tym podczas wizyty w Kijowie premier Mateusz Morawiecki.https://t.co/cKxz8r2kY7
Polish government spokesman Piotr Müller announced this morning that the prime minister had travelled to Kyiv today “to give a clear and quantifiable signal of continued support in defending Ukraine against Russia”.
He was greeted by Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal – with the pair laying flowers at a memorial to those killed in the war – and then later met President Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he visited a hospital treating soldiers injured in battle.
Krzysztof Sobolewski, the secretary general of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, told broadcaster TVP that Morawiecki would also probably attend a meeting of Ukraine’s parliament.
Polska konsekwentnie wspiera działania na rzecz bezpieczeństwa Ukrainy i Europy. pic.twitter.com/vfC0DkPDX0
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s strongest and most vocal allies during the war, providing humanitarian, diplomatic and military support. Morawiecki in March last year became – along with his Czech and Slovenian counterparts – the first international leader to visit Kyiv after Russia’s invasion.
The Polish government has been at the forefront of efforts to create a coalition of countries willing to donate Leopard tanks to Ukraine. It also publicly lobbied Germany – which produces and exports the tanks – to grant permission for them to be transferred to Ukraine.
On 11 January, President Andrzej Duda announced that Poland had decided to hand over a company of Leopard tanks to Kyiv. Poland has also been training Ukrainian soldiers in use of the tanks.
Germany itself subsequently also committed to send Leopards to Ukraine, as did Spain and Finland, reports Politico Europe. The UK is transferring some of its Challenger 2 tanks while the US has said it will provide M1 Abrams tanks.
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s security head on Tuesday held talks with the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign policy chief, calling for closer cooperation with Beijing to resist Western pressure.
Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, said during a meeting with Wang Yi, the party’s most senior foreign policy official who is visiting Moscow, that the West sought to deter Russia and China as part of its attempts to preserve global domination.
“The bloody events in Ukraine staged by the West is just one example of it,” said Patrushev, a longtime associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “All that is being done against Russia and China and to the detriment of developing nations.”
Russia has sought to cast what it calls its “special military operation” as an effort to protect Russian speakers and to derail Western efforts to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian bulwark. Kyiv and its Western allies reject that argument as a bogus cover for an unprovoked act of aggression.
Wang said Tuesday that the relations between Moscow and Beijing are “solid as a rock” and will “stand the test of the volatile international situation.”
READ MORE: Russian missile strike kills 40 in Dnipro, Kremlin seen preparing for long war
The Chinese official noted that Russia and China have “excellent opportunity to continue close strategic cooperation and contacts to protect our shared strategic interests.”
“Together with the Russian side, we are ready to strongly uphold our national interests and dignity and to expand mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas,” he said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.
China, which has declared a “no limits” friendship with Russia, has pointedly refused to criticize Moscow’s actions, blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking the Kremlin, and has blasted the punishing sanctions imposed on Russia. Russia, in turn, has strongly backed China amid tensions with the U.S. over Taiwan.
During Tuesday’s meeting with Wang, Patrushev emphasized that “amid a campaign by the West to deter both Russia and China, it is particularly important to further deepen the Russian-Chinese coordination and cooperation in the international arena.”
Patrushev said that the development of “strategic partnership” with China remains a top priority for Russia, and reaffirmed Moscow’s “invariable support for Beijing on the Taiwan, Xinjang, Tibet and Hong Kong issues, which the West has exploited to discredit China.”
The two nations have held a series of military drills that showcased increasingly close defense ties amid tensions with the United States.
Patrushev on Tuesday invited Wang to discuss international and regional issues, adding that “this will help greater consolidation of our approaches and our unity in addressing shared challenges.”
Wang’s visit to Moscow follows President Joe Biden’s unannounced visit to Ukraine on Monday, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and reaffirmed a strong U.S. support for Kyiv on the eve of the Russian military operation’s one-year anniversary.
Before heading to Russia, Wang held talks Saturday with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of an international security conference in Munich. Blinken noted that he reiterated a warning to China against providing assistance to Russia in Ukraine, including helping Moscow with eimevading sanctions the West has imposed on Moscow.
Wang is also set to hold talks Wednesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The Kremlin said that a meeting with Putin is also possible.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Rex Tillerson, who served a turbulent term as secretary of state under former President Donald Trump, was called as a government witness Monday at the trial of a Trump ally accused of leaking intelligence to the United Arab Emirates.
Tillerson testified that he barely knew the defendant, Tom Barrack, once the chairman of Trump’s inaugural committee, or anything about his relationship with the UAE. Instead, he spelled out how he would meet with Trump on a regular basis to discuss foreign policy, emphasizing that the sensitive conversations were supposed to stay confidential.
“You really don’t want outside parties to have access to that information and use it to their advantage,” Tillerson told a New York City jury.
Prosecutors have alleged Barrack provided inside information on how Trump administration officials viewed a UAE-led blockade of neighboring Qatar. Tillerson testified he had advised Trump not to engage with the UAE on the issue, saying, “We needed to let them sort that out on their own.”
READ MORE: Donald Trump allies create a new super PAC called MAGA Inc.
Tillerson also described one encounter with Barrack where he “called over to my office … and expressed an interest in an ambassadorship,” he said. But Trump didn’t embrace the idea, “so that was the end of it,” he said.
The former Exxon Mobil CEO is the highest-profile witness so far at the federal trial of Barrack, a billionaire private equity manager and Trump confidant who’s accused of secretly working as a foreign agent for the UAE.
Barrack, 75, has pleaded not guilty to that charge, along obstruction of justice and false statements counts.
In 2018, Trump dumped Tillerson via Twitter, abruptly ending the service of a Cabinet secretary who had reportedly called the Republican president a “moron” but refused to step down, deepening disarray within the Trump administration.
Trump and Tillerson clashed on several foreign policy issues, including whether the U.S. would stay in the 2015 agreement to restrict Iran’s nuclear efforts, a deal Tillerson favored. Trump announced in 2018 that the U.S. was withdrawing from the agreement.
So far, prosecutors have relied on a trove of emails and other communications they say demonstrate how Barrack’s “unique access” to Trump to manipulate his campaign — and later his administration — to advance the interests of the UAE. The efforts included helping arrange an Oval Office meeting between Trump and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in 2017.
At the same time, UAE officials were consorting with Barrack, the energy-rich Gulf state rewarded him by pouring millions of dollars into his business ventures. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures while speaking at the plenary session of the 19th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club outside Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022. (Sergei Karpukhin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin recited familiar grievances and criticisms of the hegemonic “Western elite” while offering an ideological pitch to Asian leaders and to conservative groups in the U.S. and Europe during a keynote foreign policy speech on Thursday. Putin also blamed the West for the war in Ukraine that he started with a full-scale invasion in February and he insisted that Washington could end the conflict by directing the Ukrainian government to seek peace. In the speech, delivered to the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, Putin portrayed Russia as a champion of rising nations in a new multipolar world, which he demanded that the United States and other Western powers begin to respect as equals. And seeking common ground with the right-wing in the West, he described Russia as a defender of traditional Christian values as society has lost its way. “I am convinced that sooner or later both the new centers of a multipolar world order and the West will have to start an equal conversation about a common future for us, and the sooner the better, of course,” Putin said. He added that he believed the West was losing its dominance and “quickly becoming a minority on the world stage.” In reality, it is Russia that has grown deeply isolated as a result of Putin’s brutal invasion, and his attempt to illegally annex four regions of Ukraine in violation of international law. Earlier this month, the United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly not to recognize Putin’s annexations and calling on him to reverse course. The results were 143 to 5 with 35 abstentions. The four countries to side with Russia were Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria. The Kremlin boasted that future generations “will read and reread” the speech, but on Thursday Putin spoke to an assorted crowd of guests from India, Pakistan, China and Indonesia as well as fringe pro-Kremlin politicians from Moldova who asked him fawning questions about his vision for the post-conflict, post-American hegemony world. There were few Westerners in the audience. Despite making the rivalry with the West a cornerstone of his foreign policy and his every day talking points, Putin insisted that Russia does not fundamentally see itself as the enemy of the West but instead opposes the West’s attempts to instill “strange” and “neoliberal” values in other societies in the world. These alien values, according to Putin, include “cancel culture,” “dozens of gay parades” and the right to express one’s gender identity. On Thursday, Russia’s lower house of parliament, unanimously adopted a law that bans “propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations” among Russian citizens, and imposes heavy fines for mentioning the LGBTQ+ community in public. “There are at the very least two Wests,” Putin said. One is the West of “traditional, primarily Christian, values, freedom, patriotism, the richest culture” that Russia is close to. “But there is another West - aggressive, cosmopolitan, neocolonial, the one acting as a tool of the neoliberal elites,” he continued. “And Russia, of course, will never put up with precisely the dictate of this West.” In the nearly 3-hour speech and question-and-answer session, Putin made a number of far-fetched claims, including that the West instigated the war in Ukraine. “Unlike the West, we do not climb into someone else’s yard,” Putin said, asserting that Moscow doesn’t interfere in the affairs of other states. In the past 15 years, Russia invaded two of its neighbors, Ukraine and Georgia, interceded militarily in Syria, and spent millions to curry political favor in Albania, Bosnia, Montenegro and other countries. Putin once again decried U.S. President Donald Trump’s ordered assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a top general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, whom the Pentagon blamed for attacks on U.S. citizens. “They killed Soleimani on the territory of another state and said: ‘yes, we killed him,’ “ Putin said. “What is that? What world are we living in?” Russia has been accused of organizing attacks on several Kremlin critics abroad, from assassinations of Chechens in Germany to poisonings of former secret services agents and defectors in London. Putin’s top critic, Alexei Navalny, is currently imprisoned in Russia after surviving a poisoning attack. “Whatever comes from Russia is always labeled as ‘intrigues of the Kremlin,’ “ Putin said. “But look at yourself! Are we that powerful? Any criticism of our opponents is perceived as ‘the hand of the Kremlin,’ but you can’t just blame everything on [us.]” In recent years, Putin’s government has grown increasingly repressive, cracking down on political opposition figures, journalists, activists, and scholars - labeling hundreds as “foreign agents.” The panel moderator, political analyst Fedor Lukyanov, pressed Putin on whether Moscow underestimated its opponents in Ukraine, an implicit reference to battlefield setbacks suffered by the Russian army in recent weeks, and the overall pace of the war that is now entering its ninth month despite the initial Kremlin expectation that it would quickly capture Kyiv. “The society doesn’t understand - what’s the plan in this operation?” Lukyanov continued, alluding to the brewing discontent with Moscow’s military strategy and an unpopular mobilization drive that has conscripted 300,000 or more, but sent nearly hundreds of thousands more fleeing the country to avoid being sent to fight. Putin dismissed the criticism. He said the balance on the battlefield would have been worse for Russia in the future given Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine and “the construction of fortified areas.” Putin also repeated Russia’s unsupported claims that Ukraine was preparing to use a “dirty bomb” containing radioactive material. Western leaders have dismissed this accusation as false and a potential pretext for Russia to escalate the war by its own use of such a weapon. In previous remarks, Putin has often said that he is prepared to use “all available means,” hinting at Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal, but he insisted Thursday that Russia never openly threatened to use nuclear weapons and had no need to do so in Ukraine. Putin repeated his false accusations of state-sponsored “Nazism” in Kyiv, and he insisted the United States could end the war. “Those who implement the policy in Washington can solve the problem of Ukraine very quickly through diplomacy,” he said. “They only need to send a signal to Kyiv to change the attitude and strive to peace talks.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
World Oct 27, 2022 2:55 PM EDT MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday denied having any intentions of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine but described the conflict there as part of alleged efforts by the West to secure its global domination, which he insisted are doomed to fail.
Speaking at a conference of international foreign policy experts, Putin said it’s pointless for Russia to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
“We see no need for that,” Putin said. “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military.”
Putin said an earlier warning of his readiness to use “all means available to protect Russia” didn’t amount to nuclear saber-rattling but was merely a response to Western statements about their possible use of nuclear weapons.
He particularly mentioned Liz Truss saying in August that she would be ready to use nuclear weapons if she became Britain’s prime minister, a remark which he said worried the Kremlin.
“What were we supposed to think?” Putin said. “We saw that as a coordinated position, an attempt to blackmail us.”
Without offering evidence, the Russian leader repeated Moscow’s unproven allegation that Ukraine was plotting a false flag attack involving a radioactive dirty bomb it would try to pin on Russia.
READ MORE: Biden says nuclear ‘Armageddon’ at highest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis
Ukraine has strongly rejected the claim, and its Western allies have dismissed it as “transparently false.” Ukraine argued Russia might be making the unfounded allegation to serve as a cover for its own possible plot to detonate a dirty bomb.
Putin said he personally ordered Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to call his foreign counterparts to tell them about the purported plot. He maintained that Russia knows the Ukrainian facilities working on the project.
Putin claimed, still without citing any proof, that Kyiv’s plan was to rig a missile with radioactive waste and to characterize its explosion as a Russian nuclear strike in an effort to isolate Russia in the global arena.
He mocked the allegations by Ukraine and the West that Russia was firing on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine as “ravings.” Russian troops have occupied the plant, Europe’s largest, since the early days of the conflict and Moscow has accused Ukraine of continuously shelling it.
In a long speech full of diatribes against the United States and its allies, Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of trying to dictate their terms to other nations in a “dangerous, bloody and dirty” domination game.
Putin, who sent his troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, has cast Western support for Ukraine as part of broad efforts by Washington and its allies to enforce its will upon others through what they call a rules-based world order. He argued that the world has reached a turning point, when “the West is no longer able to dictate its will to the humankind but still tries to do it, and the majority of nations no longer want to tolerate it.”
The Russian leader claimed that the Western policies will foment more chaos, adding that “he who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind.”
NEWS WRAP: Russia holds first nuclear drills since invading Ukraine
Putin claimed that “humankind now faces a choice: accumulate a load of problems that will inevitably crush us all or try to find solutions that may not be ideal but working and could make the world more stable and secure.”
The Russian leader said Russia isn’t the enemy of the West but will continue to oppose the purported diktat of Western neo-liberal elites, accusing them of trying to subdue Russia.
“Their goal is to make Russia more vulnerable and turn it into an instrument for fulfilling their geopolitical tasks, they have failed to achieve it and they will never succeed,” Putin said.
Putin reaffirmed his long-held claim that Russians and Ukrainians are part of a single people and again denigrated Ukraine as an “artificial state,” which received historic Russian lands from Communist rulers during the Soviet times. In a frank statement. he acknowledged that the fighting in Ukraine effectively amounts to a civil war.
Putin said he thinks “all the time” about the casualties Russia has suffered in the Ukraine conflict, but insisted that NATO’s refusal to rule out prospective Ukraine’s membership and Kyiv’s refusal to adhere to a peace deal for its separatist conflict in the country’s east has left Moscow no other choice.
He denied underestimating Ukraine’s ability to fight back and insisted that his “special military operation” has proceeded as planned.
Putin also acknowledged the challenges posed by Western sanctions, but argued that Russia has proven resilient to foreign pressure and has become more united. Left: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs the supervisory board meeting of the presidential forum "Russia - Land of Opportunity" at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia April 20, 2022. Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin via REUTERS | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
In 1984, Ronald Reagan reminded Washington that Americans never lost faith in themselves or their ability to shape their children?s future, it had been there all along. With a new Republican-led House on the horizon, there looms an important debate over continued U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. A number of conservative members of Congress, as well as influential outside groups, have announced opposition to further aid. But to arm a friendly nation to defeat a massive, unprovoked Russian invasion is a quintessentially conservative and Republican thing to do. Ronald Reagan did it to the Soviets in Afghanistan, so bloodying the Red Army that it was finally forced to admit defeat and withdraw. BIDEN HEARS PLEA FOR LONG-TERM UKRAINE POLICY In his 1985 State of the Union address, Reagan articulated what became known as the “Reagan Doctrine.” He cautioned against passivity when liberty is under assault and urged that “we must not break faith with those who are risking their lives … to defy Soviet-supported aggression and secure rights which have been ours from birth.” All told, Reagan spent approximately $3 billion to bleed the Red Army white in Afghanistan. Adjusted for inflation, that would now be nearly $11 billion. Of course, the scale and intensity of the war in Ukraine dwarfs the 1980s insurgency in Afghanistan. So too will be the sums needed to defeat Russia this time around. To date, we have supplied approximately $17 billion worth of military equipment, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We certainly can afford to do more. Certainly there is a great deal of confusion arising from the double- or triple-counting in the Biden administration’s press releases, since they include not only the value of the equipment transferred from our military inventories, but also replacement costs and the cost of revitalizing our industrial base to make the replacements. We also have created a $10.4 billion fund that Ukraine can use to buy weapons from the United States and others. Further, we are providing humanitarian assistance and money to keep the Ukrainian government operating. Finally, there is the additional funding request pending before Congress, which would bring the total to $105.5 billion for all these various activities, to be spent over the next seven to eight years. True, the sums are not trivial, but nor are the results. Ukraine has used our equipment and that of our NATO allies to devastating effect. According to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties so far. That means the death toll inflicted on the invading Russian army during the first nine months of its war in Ukraine is greater than the number of Soviet fatalities during nine years in Afghanistan. This is simply unsustainable for the Russian military. You can see the results on the battlefield as the Russians continue to retreat from occupied city after occupied city. If we stay the course and stand by the Ukrainian people, Russia will lose this war, too. Every $175,000 Javelin or $120,000 Stinger missile that knocks out a multimillion-dollar tank, helicopter, or warplane ultimately translates into a decimated Russian military that is not only incapable of winning in Ukraine, but unable to threaten our NATO allies in Europe conventionally for decades to come. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims to have eliminated nearly 3,000 tanks and 6,000 armored vehicles, along with 544 planes and helicopters. Even if these numbers are inflated twofold, the diminution of Russian military power is significant. In this context, as Reagan said, “dollar for dollar, security assistance contributes as much to global security as our own defense budget.” Moreover, with Chinese Communist aggression against Taiwan appearing ever more likely, the sooner we drive the Russian bear back into its cave to lick its wounds, the better. As the Republican Party takes control of the House, we should remind ourselves of what a conservative foreign policy truly looks like. It is not isolationist. It does not abandon freedom-loving peoples. It does not throw a lifeline to a drowning enemy — rather, it tosses him an anchor. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Marshall Billingslea was President Donald Trump’s special envoy for arms control and a former NATO assistant secretary-general. He is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Zelenskyy: 'We did not start the war, but we will end it' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is addressing the World Economic Forum from Kyiv at the moment, insisting again that Ukraine will prevail.He said that although his country did not start the war: "We will end it." Ukraine is standing "strongly" and "resolutely", Mr Zelenskyy said, pressing again for the world to keep supplying his army with military aid. State-of-the-art bionic arms given to Ukrainian soldiers who were badly wounded by landmines Two Ukrainian soldiers who had amputations after being wounded by landmines are being fitted with state-of-the-art bionic arms made in the UK.They are the first war veterans to be fitted with the new Hero Arm - a 3D-printed prosthesis made by Bristol-based tech company Open Bionics.Andrii Gidzun and Vitalii Ivashchuk tried out the arm this week in Munich. It has moveable fingers and thumbs that allow them to pinch and grasp objects. It's controlled by sensors that are activated by muscles in the forearm.Custom-made prostheses will now be made for the two men on 3D printers and fitted next month.Vitalii, 24, described testing the Hero Arm as a "very cool feeling", adding: "I am pleased that I have such an opportunity to get such a functional prosthesis. I did not even hope for it."When the electrodes were applied and I had the opportunity to test this prosthesis, I just enjoyed it. I was pleased, to put it mildly."Read more from our science correspondent Thomas Moore below... Ukraine War Diaries: Using comedy to cope with war The idea of a comedy night in a country twisted out of shape by war jars somewhat against the backdrop of blitz-like living conditions and mounting casualties in eastern Ukraine.But in Ukraine's capital Kyiv, where blackouts and power rationing have become a feature of winter life, the need for humour as a means of escape remains, according to Sky News Ukraine War Diarist Oksana Koshel.In the latest episode of the podcast, she attends a comedy night, albeit reluctantly, with her husband and fellow diarist Seva. It's an experience that brings both reflection and perspective as well as some profound realisations about the war. Talks aren't likely to start any time soon - as Lavrov claims US seeks 'final solution to Russia question' Analysis by Diana Magnay, Moscow correspondentNothing especially new to take away from the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's annual press conference, billed as a look back at the foreign policy results of the last year.The gist of which, on Ukraine at least, was that the US is trying to maintain a position of global dominance at Russia's expense, that it seeks Russia's destruction and is using Ukraine as a proxy battleground.His wording though was fairly remarkable. He alleged the US was seeking a "final solution to the Russia question", just as Napoleon and Hitler had before them.All this talk of Ukrainian Nazis is obviously getting to him.Nothing new on the prospect of negotiations either. Mr Lavrov asserted that Russia's position is well known - Moscow is ready to discuss serious proposals but sees none being made and that Russia sees through the West's claim that it is up to President Zelenskyy to negotiate his own country's future. As far as Russia is concerned, it will be the US calling the shots on when to start talks, not Ukraine. He may be right about that. Either way, talks aren't likely to start any time soon. New images capture aftermath of helicopter crash The photographs below are the latest to emerge from the site of a helicopter crash which killed 14 people in the Kyiv region of Ukraine today.Minister Denys Monastyrskyi and First Deputy Minister Yevhen Yenin were among those killed in the incident, as well as three children.Below, people are seen fleeing the scene in Brovary shortly after the crash. Ukraine needs 'more weapons today' Ukraine needs a "significant increase" in weapons at a pivotal moment in the war, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said.Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Foum in Davos, Mr Stoltenberg said such support was the only route to a negotiated peaceful solution with Russia.He said: "President Putin has shown no sign of preparing for peace and therefore he must realise he cannot win on the battlefield. "This is a pivotal moment in the war and the need for a significant increase in support for Ukraine."If we want a negotiated peaceful solution tomorrow we needto provide more weapons today."For context: Western allies will be gathering on Friday at a US air base in Germany to pledge more weapons for Ukraine. Attention is focused in particular on Germany, which has veto power over any decision to send its Leopard tanks, fielded by armies across Europe and widely seen as the most suitable for Ukraine.Berlin says a decision on the tanks will be the first item on the agenda of Boris Pistorius, who was named its new defence minister this week.Over the weekend, the UK said it would be sending a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine to help counter Russia's invasion "in the coming weeks". Russia has 'failed in reaching its imperialist goals', Scholz says German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is giving a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.The German leader starts by paying tribute to those killed in the helicopter crash in Ukraine today, saying: "We are with their families."He says Russia has been launching an "imperialist war of aggression here on our doorstep in Europe" and the Ukrainians are bearing the "dreadful consequences".Mr Scholz goes on to say Russia "has already failed completely in reaching its imperialist goals"."Ukraine is defending itself with great success and impressive courage," he says."A broad international alliance led by the G7 is providing the country with financial, economic, humanitarian and military support."Mr Scholz says in order for the war to end "Russia's aggression must fail" and that is why Germany is "continuously supplying Ukraine with large quantities of arms". Ukraine appoints new acting interior minister after helicopter crash Ukraine's government has appointed national police chief Ihor Klymenko as acting interior minister, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said.Mr Shmyhal announced the appointment hours after the previous minister, Denys Monastyrskyi, was killed in a helicopter crash near Kyiv. He said Mr Klymenko had officially been appointed to the role of deputy interior minister, but would fulfil the responsibilities of the minister.We have been reporting today on the helicopter crash near Kyiv which killed 14 people.The crash caused a large fire, and an entire side of the local nursery building was charred. The Kyiv region's governor said children and staff had been in the nursery at the time of the crash shortly after 8am (6am GMT).Officials have said it is too early to know what caused the crash. The national police chief confirmed that interior minister Denys Monastyrskyi had been killed along with his first deputy, Yevheniy Yenin, and the ministry's state secretary Yurii Lubkovych.Mr Monastyrskyi was 42 and had been interior minister since July 2021. Death toll in helicopter crash revised down to 14 Ukrainian officials previously said 18 people had been killed in a helicopter crash just outside Kyiv.Now, the emergency services have revised down the death toll to 14 and said one child is among the dead.There is no word on whether the crash is an accident or a result of the war with Russia. A brief history of Putin's rise to power Born in 1952 in what was formally Leningrad and is now St Petersburg, Vladimir Putin's road to war began before he became the leader of the Kremlin.The Russian leader grew up in the aftermath of the Second World War and after studying law at Leningrad State University, he joined Russia's secret service - the KGB - in 1975.He was posted to Dresden, east Germany, where he witnessed the fall of the Berlin wall and the Soviet Union.Protests in the region spread on the day of the wall's collapse and the angry crowds marched to Mr Putin's KGB building, but when he called Moscow for orders he did not receive a response.Some experts believe this was a defining moment in the Kremlin's leader's life and the end of the Soviet Union was a humiliation for him.It may have also become the moment when he set out to re-establish was he felt had been lost in his view.In 1996, Mr Putin headed back to Russia with his family and was made the head of the FSB, the agency that took over the KGB.And then in August 1999, Russia's then president Boris Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin prime minister, which essentially put him second in command.In 1999, Mr Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned and Mr Putin became acting president. And then just three months later, he won the election.During his first term as leader, one of Mr Putin key focuses was the war with Chechnya which Russia was in the midst of a conflict with.Chechnya had declared independence from Russia in 1992 but in 1994 Russian troops invaded the region to stop the independence movement. In 2000, Russian troops captured Chechnya's capital, Grozny, and Mr Putin declared direct rule from Russia. He also appointed a former cleric, Akhmad Kadyrov, as head of Moscow's administration in Chechnya.When his two terms were up, Mr Putin was replaced by Dmitry Medvedev as president in 2008 but his grip on power still remained and he served as prime minister.By 2012, Mr Putin was back as president. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday that the so-called "golden era" of relations with China was over, saying Beijing's systemic challenge to Britain's interests and values was growing more acute.In his first major foreign policy speech, Sunak said Britain's approach to China needed to evolve and Beijing was "consciously competing for global influence using all the levers of state power"."Let’s be clear, the so-called 'golden era' is over, along with the naive idea that trade would lead to social and political reform," Sunak said in London's financial district, a reference to former finance minister George Osborne's description of Sino-British ties in 2015.Some in Sunak's Conservative Party have been critical of Sunak, regarding him as less hawkish on China than his predecessor Liz Truss. Last year when he was finance minister, he called for a nuanced strategy on China to balance human rights concerns while expanding economic ties.However, a planned meeting between Sunak and China's President Xi Jinping at this month's G20 summit in Bali fell through and last week London banned Chinese-made security cameras from sensitive government buildings."We recognise China poses a systemic challenge to our values and interests, a challenge that grows more acute as it moves towards even greater authoritarianism," he said, referring to the BBC statement that one of its journalists had been assaulted by Chinese police."Of course, we cannot simply ignore China’s significance in world affairs - to global economic stability or issues like climate change. The U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan and many others understand this too."British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak looks on during the annual Lord Mayor's Banquet at Guildhall, in London, Britain November 28, 2022. REUTERS/Toby MelvilleSunak said under his leadership Britain would not choose the "status quo" and would confront international competitors "not with grand rhetoric but with robust pragmatism".On Ukraine, he said the government would maintain military aid to Kyiv next year, maintaining the strong support offered by former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Truss."So be in no doubt, we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. We will maintain or increase our military aid next year. And we will provide new support for air defence," he said.In September, Britain said it was the second-largest military donor to Ukraine after the United States, providing 2.3 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) of aid this year.Sunak said Britain needed to take the same long-term approach as its adversaries and competitors such as Russia and China."In the face of these challenges, short-termism or wishful thinking will not suffice. We can’t depend on Cold War arguments or approaches, or mere sentimentality about the past," he said.($1 = 0.8288 pound)Reporting by David Milliken and Michael Holden; Editing by David Gregorio and Cynthia OstermanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Politics October 20, 2022 / 5:35 PM / CBS News Federal prosecutors have said a Trump confidant tried to secretly sway foreign policy in favor of the United Arab Emirates, but that accusation was undermined Thursday in testimony by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Mnuchin said Thomas Barrack, a billionaire friend of former President Donald Trump, advocated for one of the UAE's top adversaries during a regional foreign policy crisis. Mnuchin said Barrack sided with Qatar when it was blockaded by its neighbors, whom the Trump administration supported.Mnuchin, who was treasury secretary from the beginning through the end of Trump's presidency, is the second member of his administration to testify during Barrack's trial. While on the witness stand, Mnuchin described a June 2017 meeting with Barrack at his office in the Treasury building in D.C. the day after the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other nations imposed a blockade on Qatar. Mnuchin said that although the administration backed the blockade, Barrack had supported Qatar and called it a "big distraction." "He thought the president made a mistake," Mnuchin told the court. "His position was clearly in support of Qatar." Mnuchin said that as Treasury Secretary he spoke with business people including Barrack, and had discussions related to foreign policy issues. Mnuchin said Barrack "had a lot of experience in that area."While he was treasury secretary, Mnuchin maintained he never shared any confidential information with Barrack, nor did he ask for him to share anything with the UAE. Prosecutors called former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to the stand on Oct. 3. Tillerson, who served from February 2017 through March 2018, said he didn't know Barrack was communicating with Emerati officials and never asked for Barrack's involvement in foreign policy discussions.Tillerson was also questioned about a planned summit at Camp David, at which Trump hoped to resolve an economic blockade of Qatar by the UAE and other Gulf monarchies. Mnuchin would not expand upon discussions regarding Camp David, citing executive privilege. During cross examination, prosecutors asked Mnuchin about his private equity company, Liberty Strategic Capital. Mnuchin acknowledged that a UAE sovereign wealth fund is among his company's investors.Mnuchin later explained that sovereign wealth funds are "some of the largest investors" in private equity firms. Past treasury secretaries like Jack Lew and Henry Paulson are also now working in private equity.Prior to joining the Trump administration, Mnuchin worked for Goldman Sachs and then went on to found an investment firm. He later served as finance chair for the Trump campaign. Barrack and Mnuchin had been friends for years, and Barrack attended Mnuchin's 2017 wedding, Mnuchin said Thursday.Barrack is accused of working with an Emirati official to undermine the summit, which ultimately was not held.Prosecutors also say Barrack leveraged his friendship with Trump in an attempt to advance a "wish list" of UAE foreign policy positions.The government wrapped its case Wednesday. The monthlong proceedings have revolved around text messages and emails sent between Barrack and his co-defendants, a former employee named Matthew Grimes and Rashid Al Malik, an Emirati citizen then living in California. In messages shown to the jury, Barrack, Grimes and Al Malik discussed Barrack's advocacy for Trump and American foreign policy in the Gulf. Prosecutors have shown messages from which it appears Al Malik relayed information from Barrack and Grimes to senior officials in the UAE government. Barrack, Grimes and Al Malik were charged in July 2021. Barrack, who at the time was executive chairman of investment firm Colony Capital, has entered not guilty pleas to the charges of acting as an unregistered foreign agent, obstruction of justice and making false statements to the FBI about his dealings. The company is now known as DigitalBridge. Grimes entered not guilty pleas to charges of acting as an unregistered foreign agent. Al Malik, who was also charged with acting as an unregistered foreign agent, has not been located by law enforcement. Barrack and Grimes' attorneys have said their communications with UAE officials were related to their business dealings. They've said Trump and the U.S. State Department were aware of Barrack's international business relationships. In: United Arab Emirates Donald Trump Thanks for reading CBS NEWS. Create your free account or log in for more features. Please enter email address to continue Please enter valid email address to continue | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Chinese paramilitary policemen march outside the Great Hall of the People after attending a ceremony to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army in Beijing, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2017. The Pentagon provided key details into China's long-term intentions in a recent report to Congress
, with government officials under President Joe Biden routinely characterizing the communist superpower as a “pacing challenge" and the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security." The department released its much-anticipated National Defense Strategy in late October and subsequently released its China Military Power Report on Tuesday, which is an annual report mandated under the 2000 National Defense Authorization Act, both documents of which emphasize Beijing’s continued efforts to fulfill its ambitions on a global scale. The Chinese Communist Party, led by Xi Jinping
, has established economic policies, foreign policy, and defense policies as a coordinated effort to further these goals as well.Xi and the CCP have three milestone years in mind for expansion: 2027, 2035, and 2049. They are looking to accelerate the integrated development of the country's armed forces by 2027 and the “complete modernization” of its national defense by 2035, and their national strategy aims to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049.
AUSTIN WARNS ABOUT 'INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR' OF CHINESE MILITARY
"First, an important element of the PRC’s strategy is a determined pursuit to amass and expand its national power to transform the international system to one that is more favorable to the PRC’s political governance system and national interests. China has aimed to expand its national power through domestic and foreign policy initiatives," a senior U.S. defense official told reporters. "Second, over the course of 2021, and evident in 2022, we have seen a trend of increasing PRC military coercion. The CMPR highlights that the PLA has adopted more dangerous, coercive, and aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region. PLA naval vessels and aircraft have exhibited a sharper increase in unsafe and unprofessional behavior in the Indo-Pacific region, including lasing, aerobatics, discharging objects, and activity that impinge upon the ability of nearby aircraft to maneuver safely."China “probably accelerated its nuclear expansion” last year, an executive summary of the report reads, noting that the department currently estimates the nation has more than 400 operational nuclear warheads, and that could increase to roughly 1,500 by that 2035 marker on its current pace.It is also expanding the number of land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and is working to build out that infrastructure as well. Its efforts for nuclear modernization “exceed previous modernization attempts in both scale and complexity,” it continued. China's military also has the infrastructure to produce chemical and biological agents or toxins on “a large scale,” and it “probably has the technical expertise to weaponize chemical and biological warfare (CBW) agents, and its robust armaments industry and numerous conventional weapon systems, including missiles, rockets, and artillery, probably could be adapted to deliver CBW agents.” China’s army has approximately 975,000 active-duty personnel, while its navy is numerically the largest in the world with a battle force of roughly 340 ships and submarines. Its air force is the third largest globally and the largest in the region. Part of China's plan is also to deter intervention from the United States or any other major military. The People's Liberation Army has a presence in the immediate periphery of the country for counter-intervention, and China is seeking to strengthen that stranglehold on the surrounding region.The U.S. and China's relationship has hit some bumps in recent months, with the tension reaching its peak amid House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) trip to Taiwan in August. She was the highest-ranking U.S. official to travel to Taiwan this century, though the U.S. maintained her trip represented no shift in U.S. policy, despite Beijing's disagreement. The U.S. subsequently accused Beijing of making a conflict out of nothing in order to further its own goals.
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Taiwan is an island off the coast of mainland China, and while it maintains its independence, Beijing maintains that the island is a part of the mainland. Chinese officials have repeatedly warned the U.S. that they do not have a say in Chinese domestic policies, implicitly demonstrating their belief that the island of more than 20 million people is Chinese. The U.S. has recognized China's claim to Taiwan but does not support any unilateral change from either side.Biden has said multiple times since his term began that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, though administration officials have maintained that there has been no change in the U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity," which is the intentional obfuscation of a specific response.“If realized, this 2027 objective could give the PLA capabilities to be a more credible military tool for the CCP to wield as it pursues Taiwan reunification," the defense official added. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russian President Vladimir Putin on a screen at Red Square as he addresses a rally and a concert marking the annexation of four regions of Ukraine — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — in central Moscow on Sept. 30, 2022.Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty ImagesProminent supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin are using increasingly "genocidal rhetoric" when discussing and demonizing Ukrainians, analysts note, with some pro-war commentators cheering the concept of the "liquidation" of the modern state of Ukraine.Ultranationalists have come to the fore in Russia particularly since the Feb. 24 invasion, continuously pushing the Kremlin to take a harder line with Ukraine and overtly critical of Moscow's military leadership following a series of withdrawals or defeats during the war.Well-known commentators, ranging from military bloggers and journalists to politicians and officials, belonging to a nationalist faction in Russian politics have repeatedly called for Russia to adopt a more merciless approach to Ukraine, with some promoting the use of nuclear weapons and others advocating its complete annihilation.'Cockroaches' and 'pigs'One of the most closely followed pro-Kremlin blogs belongs to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who has over 900,000 followers on Telegram and is one of the staunchest supporters of the war and most vociferous and vicious critics of Ukraine.The rhetoric he uses to characterize Ukraine and Ukrainians has also become increasingly dehumanizing; this week he characterized officials within Kyiv's government as "cockroaches" (because they wanted to retake Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014) while he used the term "grunting pigs" earlier in November.He has denied "mythical" Ukraine's existence, telling his followers this week that "Kiev is the capital of Ancient Russia" and that "Kyiv is just a Russian city where people always thought and spoke Russian." That sentiment is widely echoed by other officials and military bloggers, or "milbloggers," as they're known."I have repeatedly said that, by and large, the Ukrainian nation does not exist, it is a political orientation," Moscow City Duma deputy and pro-Kremlin journalist Andrey Medvedev told his 150,000 followers on Telegram Wednesday."To be a 'Ukrainian' one does not even have to speak the Ukrainian language (which is also still being formed). Ukrainians are Russians who have been convinced that they are special, more European, more racially pure and more correct Russians," he claimed."All this can be stopped only through the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood in its current form," Medvedev said.The rhetoric has heated up in the last week following the circulation of a video on social media that Moscow says shows Ukrainian forces killing Russian troops who may have been trying to surrender. Ukraine's deputy prime minister said Kyiv would investigate the video but said "it is very unlikely" that the edited snippets show what Moscow claims.Nonetheless, the video has caused a storm among pro-Kremlin commentators, with Russia's State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin taking to his Telegram channel to condemn Ukraine and repeat baseless accusations that the Kyiv government is led by "fascists" and "Nazis" despite Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself being Jewish.Another popular motif being used by pro-war, pro-Putin bloggers is characterizing Ukraine and Ukrainians as "evil" or "sadists" or "Satanists."Blogger Ilya Varlamov, whose Telegram channel is followed by 360,000 people, has described Ukrainians as "the grunting pigs of Satan" (the same derogatory language and terminology is often shared across the blogosphere showing the pervasiveness of anti-Ukrainian propaganda) while another popular blogger, followed by over 500,000 people, characterized Ukraine's raid this week on a Russian-backed monastery in Kyiv as illustrative of "evil" Ukraine's apparent disdain for Russian culture.A view of Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra complex in the capital Kyiv,Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images'Genocidal rhetoric'Analysts agree that the widespread use of such language by pro-war commentators in Russia is tantamount to "genocidal rhetoric," as analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted Wednesday."This rhetoric is openly exterminatory and dehumanizing and calls for the conduct of a genocidal war against the Ukrainian state and its people, which notably has pervaded discourse in the highest levels of the Russian political mainstream.""As ISW has previously reported, Russian President Vladimir Putin has similarly employed such genocidal language in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with calls for negotiations."Using dehumanizing and animalistic descriptions of Ukrainians, and espousing baseless claims that they pose a threat and danger to Russians, is reminiscent of the language and debate seen in Nazi Germany prior to the Holocaust in which millions of Jews and other perceived "enemies" of Nazi Germany were murdered.The U.N. describes genocide "as a crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part."Ultranationalist propaganda has become a part of the mainstream in Russia, one analyst said, with anti-Ukrainian ideology and symbols becoming ubiquitous.Max Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Thursday that "there has always been rather extreme language in the sort of Russian blogosphere and amongst the Russian nationalist crowd ... but what's changing is how much of this the Kremlin is pushing into the mainstream.""The Kremlin is really almost endorsing a lot of this rhetoric. I mean, we saw just yesterday, you know, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeting a meme about Zelenskyy and the missile that landed in Poland. But doing so in the most anti semitic tropes possible," he noted, adding that "while we've seen the Kremlin dabble with this kind of rhetoric before we haven't seen it [previously] in the mainstream to this extent.""And it's not just in the sort of blogosphere or on those Kremlin social media channels, it's in state museums, it's in the rhetoric on the main state talk shows. So it's really the mainstreaming of it," he noted. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
November 10, 2022 07:18 AM AN IGNOMINIOUS RETREAT: The announcement came in one of those carefully staged meetings broadcast on Russian state TV. Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, was providing a grim “sitrep” to his boss, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “Comrade minister of defense, after a comprehensive assessment of the current situation, we suggest taking defense along the left shore of the Dnieper River. Understand this is not a simple decision, but at the same time, we will most importantly preserve the lives of our servicemen and in general the combat readiness of the group of forces,” said Surovikin, pointing to a map of the Kherson region that Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed as Russian territory in an elaborate ceremony just over a month ago. Upon hearing that it was becoming impossible to resupply troops in Kherson and that its defense would be “futile,” a stone-faced Shoigu ordered the withdrawal. “Go ahead with the pullout of troops and take all measures to ensure safe transfer of troops, weapons, and equipment to the other bank of the Dnieper River.” ‘THE ENEMY DOES NOT BRING US GIFTS’: Ukraine’s immediate reaction was suspicion, questioning whether Russian forces were truly retreating or simply abandoning the farmland around the city of Kherson while hoping to lure Ukrainian forces into deadly urban combat. In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautioned against premature elation at the prospect that Kherson, under Russian control since the early days of the war, might soon be liberated. “The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make ‘gestures of goodwill.’ We fight our way up. And when you are fighting, you must understand that every step is always resistance from the enemy. It is always the loss of the lives of our heroes,” Zelensky said. “We are moving gradually, strengthening our positions step by step. … But our emotions must be restrained — always during war.” Russia is believed to have massed between 20,000-30,000 troops in the city, and the withdrawal could take several weeks. UKRAINE UNEASY ABOUT 'BAD THEATER' IN RUSSIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM MAJOR CITY WHY RETREAT NOW? The forced retreat is another humiliating chapter in Russia’s shambolic, deeply flawed, and poorly executed invasion plan, but while a political embarrassment, tactically it makes sense, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Politically, it’s very embarrassing. This is a province that Putin has claimed, and now he's giving most of it up, territory that they’ve been trying to hold on to for several months,” Cancian told the Washington Examiner. “But militarily, it's very sensible because they're on the wrong side of a very big river where the crossing points are under fire, and if their position were to collapse at some point, they would risk losing a lot of troops, so a planned withdrawal makes a lot of sense.” Cancian suspects Russia’s strategy at this point is to dig in for the winter and hope that pressure builds for Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal. “I think what the retreat says is that the Russian plan is to hold on defense. You can see that across the front lines. Russia has mobilized a lot of personnel, which though very poorly conducted is producing soldiers at the front,” Cancian said. “They're digging in all along the front, putting tank barriers, concrete bunkers, and their strategy is apparently just to hold on. “I think that their hope is that over the winter the Europeans will crack under the pressure of recession, inflation, and high energy prices and that there will be a ‘peace party’ that arises demanding negotiations and some sort of armistice,” he said. “Looking into my crystal ball, I think that the Europeans will hold on through the winter. There will be some grumbling, but they've stored a lot of natural gas, and the governments are committed to easing the sting of high energy prices, so I think that they will continue their support through the winter.” ANALYSIS: CRIMEA, POLITICS, AND WHY RUSSIA HAD TO RETREAT FROM KHERSON Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will begin its Thanksgiving holiday recess a week early this year, with publication pausing from Monday, Nov. 14, through Friday, Nov. 25. We’ll be back in your inbox and online at DailyonDefense.com, beginning Monday, Nov. 29, for three weeks, before taking an end-of-the-year holiday hiatus from Dec. 19 through Jan. 2, 2023. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden departs Washington tonight for Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to attend the 27th annual session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, which is already underway. Biden will “build on the significant work the United States has undertaken to advance the global climate fight and help the most vulnerable build resilience to climate impacts” and “highlight the need for the world to act in this decisive decade,” according to a White House statement. He is also scheduled to have a bilateral meeting with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. MILLEY: 200,000+ CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE: In a speech at the Economic Club of New York yesterday, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed the highest estimates to date for casualties on both sides after 8 1/2 months of war in Ukraine. "You're looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded," Milley said, according to Reuters. "Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side — a lot of human suffering." In addition, Milley said as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians had died during the fighting. Milley did not give a source for his casualty estimate, which included both dead and wounded on both sides. Both Ukraine and Russia keep their death tolls secret, but Ukraine has claimed that it has killed 78,690 Russians since the invasion in February. MCCAUL: ‘UKRAINE CAN DEFEAT RUSSIA’: House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Michael McCaul (R-TX) said Russia’s pullback from Kherson shows that Ukraine has the wherewithal to deal a total defeat to Putin’s army if supplied with enough of the right kind of weapons. “A Russian retreat will confirm what I and many of my colleagues have been stressing for months: with the right weapons, Ukraine can defeat Russia’s invading forces and further expose the absurdity of Putin’s attempted ‘annexation’ of Kherson and three other regions in Ukraine,” McCaul said in a statement. “It is far past time for the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with all the weapons it needs, including longer-range ATACMS, to ensure Putin, and all aggressors, understand they cannot win unprovoked wars of aggression.” BIDEN: COMPROMISE UP TO UKRAINE: At a post-midterm election news conference yesterday, Biden insisted that the U.S. is not pressuring Ukraine to make any compromises to reach a peace agreement with Putin. He said the Russian military withdrawal from Kherson is “evidence of the fact that they have some real problems,” but he added that it might “lead to time for everyone to recalibrate their positions over the winter period.” “It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” he said. “That’s up to the Ukrainians — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” “I said what’s going to happen is they’re going to both lick their wounds, decide what they’re going to do over the winter, and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise.” CURIOUS TIMING: Biden also questioned the public announcement of the withdrawal from Kherson came after the crucial midterm elections. “I found it interesting they waited until after the election to make that judgment, which we knew for some time that they were going to be doing.” “Top Russian propagandist says that Russia waited to announce the Kherson withdrawal until after Nov. 8, to make sure it does not help Joe Biden and the Democrats in the midterms,” tweeted Julia Davis, who runs the Russian Media Monitor. (Tagline: “I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.”) Davis posted a clip of Vladimir Solovyov, whom she called “Russia’s Tucker Carlson,” lamenting that Russia’s plan “to discredit the U.S. elections and convince the Republicans that the mighty Kremlin hand covertly helped push them to victory had backfired.” “Solovyov greeted his audience by wishing them a ‘Happy Interference in the U.S. Election Day,’” before the returns began to show that Trump-backed candidates were losing,” Davis wrote in the Daily Beast. “During the broadcast of [Russia’s] 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva asked an expert: ‘How are our guys in America?’ Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov clarified with a chuckle: ‘Our Republicans.’” FROM MY INBOX: THOUGHTS ON THE MILITARY RECRUITING CRISIS: I get a lot of emails in my inbox on a variety of subjects, but with Veterans Day being observed tomorrow, I thought I would share verbatim the thoughts of retired Army Capt. Sean McFate, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, about why the U.S. military is in a recruiting crisis. “People don’t volunteer for the military just because they want job opportunities or a free education. Military life is hard, and you can get killed. You need to believe it’s worth it, and that’s the current problem. Who can blame youth today who look back on 20 years of war and ask: What was it all for? Nothing, apparently. Also, this is an absolute trope and ‘red flag’ that these analysts are not taking it seriously: ‘Low unemployment rates (plenty of job opportunities in the civilian sector).’ It’s not like the late 1990s tech boom. The ‘plenty of job opportunities’ are not career opportunities. For example, yes McDonald’s and the Gap are hiring, but that’s probably not the reason people aren’t volunteering for the force. No one is saying, ‘Gee, I really want to be a VP at Burger King, so goodbye Army!’ It seems like the military is caught in the culture wars where half of the recruiting pool thinks the military is too woke to join (conservatives) and the other half thinks military service is distasteful (liberal). That doesn’t leave much of a recruiting pool.” CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The Rundown Washington Examiner: Ukraine uneasy about 'bad theater' in Russia's withdrawal from major city Washington Examiner: Analysis: Crimea, politics, and why Russia had to retreat from Kherson Washington Examiner: Opinion: How would a Republican-controlled House affect relations with China? Washington Examiner: Opinion: A Republican-controlled House isn't going to abandon Ukraine for Russia Washington Examiner: National Archives releases more docs tied to Mar-a-Lago investigation Washington Examiner: Only victorious 'Triple Threat' member intends to carry her Border Patrol message to Congress New York Times: Early Peace Talks Appear Unlikely As Russians Retreat And Retaliate Wall Street Journal: U.S. Refuses Advanced Drones For Ukraine To Avoid Escalation With Russia New York Times: Allies Give Ukraine Timely Aid, A Weapon To Shoot Down Jets, Drones And Cruise Missiles AP: Russia’s Putin Won't Attend Upcoming G-20 Summit in Bali Reuters: Biden To Discuss North Korea Nuclear Threat With Japan, South Korea Leaders Reuters: Iran Warns Saudi Arabia 'Our Strategic Patience' May Run Out - Fars Defense One: No ‘Specific or Credible’ Cyberattacks Hurt Election's Integrity, CISA Says Military.com: Here's How Veterans Running for Congress Did in the Midterms Bloomberg: Biden Aims To Avoid Concessions To Xi During First Summit Air & Space Forces Magazine: Meet the New Air Force Veterans Elected to Congress, and Other Midterm Takeaways Washington Post: Couple Who Tried To Sell Nuclear Secrets Receive Long Prison Terms Marine Corps Times: Drill Instructor May Be Charged In 2021 Marine Recruit Death Red Snow: Extreme Avoidance: Austin Said Stamping Out Extremism Was a Priority. You Wouldn’t Know It Breaking Defense: Bahrain to Receive First Batch of Block 70 F-16s in Early 2024 Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Orders 2 More New E-11A BACN Aircraft Systems, Making 5 USNI News: Navy Used 16-Year-Old Law Made To Boost Army Recruiting To Raise Enlistment Age For Sailors Washington Times: Opinion: Commander-In-Chief Biden Needs To Address The Military’s Recruiting Problem Air Force Times: Air Force Investigating Damaged B-52 Bomber After Midair Bird Strike 19fortyfive.com: Russia Abandoning Kherson is Good for Ukraine (But the War Is Not Over) 19fortyfive.com: Russia's Kherson Defeat: The End of Putin's Regime? 19fortyfive.com: Iran Could Transform the Ukraine War Into Missile Hell 19fortyfive.com: China Building 'NGAD' Sixth-Generation Fighter 19fortyfive.com: Iran Could Make Javelin Missiles, NLAWs, and Stinger Missiles Thanks to Russia Calendar THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10 10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: "The U.S.-Saudi Rift: Economic Disagreement or Geopolitical Realignment?" with Hala Aldosari, Saudi scholar and activist; Giorgio Cafiero, founder and CEO of Gulf States Analytics; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy; Manal Shehabi, academic visitor at the University of Oxford's St. Antony's College; and Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Middle East Program https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 10 a.m. — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and Middle East Program virtual discussion: "Saudi Arabia and Oil: Between the U.S. and Russia," with Guy Laron, senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bessma Momani, professor of political science at the University of Waterloo; and Stephen Kalin, reporter at the Wall Street Journal https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/saudi-arabia-and-oil 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft webinar: “How Will Midterm Outcomes Affect U.S. Policy on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?” with George Beebe, director, grand strategy, Quincy Institute; Rachel Bovard, senior director of policy, Conservative Partnership Institute; Jacob Heilbrunn, editor, the National Interest; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser, Quincy Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register 12 p.m. 14th St. and F St. N.W.— National Press Club's American Legion Post 20 meeting with a discussion: on “The war in Ukraine and efforts to get accurate information into Ukraine and Russia," with Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman https://www.press.org/newsroom https://us02web.zoom.us FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 11 9 a.m. World War II Memorial, 1750 Independence Ave. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony "to honor the more than 16 million men and women who served with the U.S. Armed Forces during World War II" and "in remembrance of the more than 400,000 Americans and 60 million people killed worldwide during the deadliest military conflict in human history." Livestream at https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14 10 a.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Ukraine and the Future of Air Warfare,” with Margarita Konaev, deputy director of analysis and research fellow, Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program and director, Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Bendett, adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Center; and Kelly Grieco, senior fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/ukraine-and-the-future-of-air-warfare 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.— Brookings Institution event: “U.S. defense innovation and great power deterrence,” with Chris Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril Industries; David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst, Rand Corporation; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch 7 p.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Military Operations Other Than War in China’s Foreign Policy,” with Courtney Fung, associate professor, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University; Andrea Ghiselli, assistant professor, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University; and Jesse Marks, nonresident fellow, China Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/military-operations-other-than-war FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18 TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the U.S. include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org QUOTE OF THE DAY “It seems like the military is caught in the culture wars where half of the recruiting pool thinks the military is too woke to join (conservatives) and the other half thinks military service is distasteful (liberal). That doesn’t leave much of a recruiting pool.” Retired Army Capt. Sean McFate, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and adjunct professor at Syracuse University, on why the U.S. military is in a recruiting crisis | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Sahrawi President Brahim Ghali attends a public event at the Bojador Sahrawi refugee camp, in Tindouf, Algeria, May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Borja SuarezRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRABAT/CAIRO, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Morocco recalled its ambassador to Tunisia on Friday after Tunisian President Kais Saied received the head of the Polisario Front movement that is seeking independence for Western Sahara, a territory Morocco regards as its own.Morocco said Tunisia's decision to invite Brahim Ghali to a Japanese development summit for Africa that Tunis is hosting this weekend was "a grave and unprecedented act that deeply hurts the feelings of the Moroccan people".The row opens a new front in a series of disputes over Western Sahara that has already dragged in Spain and Germany and escalated an overarching regional rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, the Polisario's main backer.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comTunisia has this year grown closer to Algeria, its most populous neighbour and one upon which it relies for energy, with Saied meeting Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in July.Tunisia this weekend is hosting the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, which will include heads of state from several African countries.Tunisia, in response to Morocco's decision, announced it was recalling its ambassador to Rabat for consultation.Tunisia's ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement early on Saturday that the country maintains its complete "neutrality over Western Sahara issue in compliance with international legitimacy".It said the African Union had circulated a memorandum inviting all members of the African Union, including the head of the Polisario Front movement, to participate in the activities of the Tokyo International Conference on African Development Summit in Tunisia.Also, the president of the African Commission extended a direct individual invitation to Brahim Ghali to attend the summit, the statement said.Senegalese President Macky Sall, who is currently chair of the African Union, is scheduled to speak. The African Union recognises Western Sahara as a member, but African states are split over both the Polisario and the territory's independence.In a terse foreign ministry statement, Morocco said it would no longer take part in the summit. It also accused Tunisia of having recently "multiplied negative positions" against Morocco, and said its decision to host Ghali "confirms its hostility in a blatant way".Gaining recognition for its sovereignty over Western Sahara has long been Morocco's most treasured foreign policy goal. In 2020 the United States recognised its sovereignty in return for Morocco's agreeing closer ties with Israel.Since then, Morocco has taken a tougher stance over Western Sahara, withdrawing its ambassadors to Spain and Germany until they moved closer to its stance on the territory.Algeria has withdrawn its own ambassador to Spain, a major customer for Algerian gas, after Madrid's sudden shift on Western Sahara.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Ahmed El Jechtimi; additional Reporting by Omar Fahmy; writing by Angus McDowall and Moataz Mohamed; editing by Chris Reese, Angus MacSwan and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Former President Donald Trump said he could solve the Russia-Ukraine war "in 24 hours," while speaking at his presidential campaign kickoff in New Hampshire on Saturday."Remember crooked Hilary? 'He's going to cause a war in his first week in office.' Because they think that's my personality type. But it's actually the opposite," Trump said while speaking to the crowd in Salem, New Hampshire."My personality kept us out of war," the former president continued. "And I told you before, [it] would have never happened with Russia. Putin would have never ever gone in. And even now I could solve that in 24 hours. It's so horrible what happened. Those cities are demolished now."Trump concluded by saying that if he was president, there would have been "zero chance that war would have happened."
According to Bloomberg, Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a new offensive in the next month or two to combat Ukrainian gains in the war that he started last February. This comes after the anticipated announcement that Ukraine will soon be receiving more military weaponry from the West.On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that the United States would send Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's troops 31 M1 Abrams battle tanks. Meanwhile, Germany also announced that it would send Ukraine its Leopard 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) to help the war-torn country fight off Russian forces.Political analyst and Dillard University professor, Robert Collins, told Newsweek on Saturday, "Former President Trump always claims he can easily solve any problem currently in existence. Even though the records show that he had his own problems that he could not solve while in office."
A destroyed school in the Kherson region of Ukraine is seen on Saturday amid Russia's military invasion. Inset, former President Donald Trump is seen on Saturday in Salem, New Hampshire. Trump said he could solve the Russia-Ukraine war "in 24 hours," while speaking at his presidential campaign kickoff in New Hampshire on Saturday. (Photo by GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images) / (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
Collins continued: "His claims will not affect foreign policy or the image of Biden or the U.S. outside of the country. Polling data shows [the] rest of the world has a negative view of Trump. Of course, it will keep his base in the U.S. happy and energized to send him money, which is the only thing he is concerned about."Following Biden's announcement, Russian officials condemned the U.S. and disparaged the Abrams' potential usefulness.Russia's ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, said the step was "another blatant provocation against the Russian Federation," while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the Abrams and other Western tanks "would burn up just like all the others."On Thursday, Pentagon deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh said the Russian vitriol was nothing new."I feel like I've heard that talking point before from them, whether it was the Javelins that we were giving or the HIMARS and then the Patriot," she told reporters. "Everything seems, I guess, to be an 'escalation.' I don't view it as that." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Pulitzer-prize winning journalist Thomas E. Ricks has stopped fearing that the United States is headed for civil war, according to his Monday Washington Post opinion piece, despite past concerns about the possibility of sustained political violence. Following the election of former President Trump in 2016, Ricks wrote a series of articles in Foreign Policy Magazine that saw him anticipating widespread assassination attempts, bombings and perhaps even a second civil war. One article from July 2017 saw Ricks discuss assessments from national security experts who concluded the chance of another war at home sat at around 30%. He warned that some outliers put that number at 60%, or even 95%. Another article saw the journalist detail "What a new U.S. civil war might look like."MSNBC'S EUGENE ROBINSON DESCRIBES BIDEN SPEECH AS ‘URGENT WARTIME ADDRESS,’ AS NETWORK KEEPS EVOKING CIVIL WAR Washington Post publisher Fred Ryan speaks during a 2019 Pulitzer Prize announcement ceremony in the newsroom at the Washington Post office on Monday, April 15, 2019 in Washington, D.C. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)Ricks’ concerns about political violence largely stemmed from his scrutiny of right-wing organizations, which he feared were "heavily influenced" by White nationalism. He anticipated conventions organized around the goal of defying federal laws, firing state employees complying with federal orders and a refusal to convict anyone on the conservative wing of American politics. The author and journalist acknowledged that the country is still deeply divided. He described the Supreme Court as a federal judiciary "packed with reactionaries," asserted that right-wingers appear "comfortable" with threatening violence, and knocked Congress for appearing "unconcerned" with such language. "And yet, for all that, I am less pessimistic than I was back then," Ricks wrote in The Post.Ricks revealed that his main concerns over another civil war culminated in the January 6 riots. MSNBC HISTORIAN COMPARES BIDEN SPEECH TO LINCOLN, FDR BEFORE CIVIL WAR, WWII Washington Post op-ed writer Thomas E. Ricks' concerns about another civil war have subsided, according to a recent piece. (REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo)"At the time I feared that the unprecedented insurrection was the beginning of a sustained war on American democracy," Ricks recalled. "Yet nothing much happened."While the author made sure to note that the country still has a long way to go, citing Trump followers with the potential of being elected to Congress, and the uncertainty surrounding House control, he also suggested that the wave of "hard right reaction" appears to have waned. "So, while the patient is not yet healthy, I see some signs that the fever is breaking and the prognosis is improving," Ricks concluded. The media has long hypothesized that the U.S. could be headed for civil war. MSNBC, CNN FIGURES GUSH OVER BIDEN ANTI-MAGA REPUBLICANS SPEECH, MAKE ALLUSIONS TO CIVIL WAR, NAZI GERMANY MSNBC host Tiffany Cross claimed it feels like the second American civil war is already here. (MSNBC)On September 2, MSNBC historian Michael Beschloss compared President Biden’s Thursday speech at Independence Hall to President Lincoln’s speech prior to the American Civil War and President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s speech leading America into World War II. He recalled telling Biden at a meeting with other historians that this moment in time is similar to 1860 and 1940. Last month, MSNBC host Tiffany Cross worried that "the civil war is here" due in part to alleged pro-Trump right-wing extremist’s distrustful of the U.S. government. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP "The spike of violent rhetoric on MAGA message boards is reminiscent of what occurred before the deadly January 6 insurrection. We all remember that," she said. "It’s not like the civil war is coming, it feels like the civil war is here," Cross declared. Nikolas Lanum is an associate editor for Fox News Digital. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
World Updated on: July 16, 2022 / 8:38 AM / CBS/AP President Joe Biden, speaking at a summit of Arab leaders, said Saturday that the United States "will not walk away" from the Middle East as he tries to ensure stability in a volatile corner of the globe and boost the worldwide flow of oil to reverse rising gas prices.His remarks, delivered at the Gulf Cooperation Council as he closes out the final leg of a four-day trip, comes as the region braces for a potential confrontation with Iran."We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran," Mr. Biden said. "We will seek to build on this moment with active, principled, American leadership." Although U.S. forces continue to target terrorists in the region and remain deployed at bases throughout the Middle East, Mr. Biden suggested that he was turning the page after the country's invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan."Today, I'm proud to be able to say that the eras of land wars in the region, wars that involved huge numbers of American forces, is not under way," he said. Mr. Biden also pressed his counterparts, many of which lead repressive governments, to ensure human rights, including women's rights, and allow their citizens to speak openly."The future will be won by the countries that unleash the full potential of their populations," he said, including allowing people to "question and criticize leaders without fear of reprisal."Before the speech, Mr. Biden spent the morning meeting individually with the leaders of Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, some of whom he had never sat down with.Mr. Biden invited Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who became president of the UAE two months ago, to visit the White House this year, saying he looked forward "to another period of strong and growing cooperation" between their countries under the sheik's leadership. The Gulf Cooperation Council summit in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah is an opportunity for Mr. Biden to demonstrate his commitment to the region after spending most of his presidency focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's growing influence in Asia.Hours before the conference began, the White House released satellite imagery that indicates Russian officials have twice recently visited Iran to see weapons-capable drones it is looking to acquire for use in its war in Ukraine.None of the countries represented at the summit have moved in lockstep with the U.S. to sanction Russia, a key foreign policy priority for the Biden administration. If anything, the UAE has emerged as a sort of financial haven for Russian billionaires and their multimillion-dollar yachts. Egypt remains open to Russian tourists.Release satellite imagery that shows Russian officials visited Kashan Airfield on June 8 and July 15 to look at the drones could help the administration better tie the war's relevance to many Arab nations' own concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, missile program and support for militants in the region.A senior Biden administration official, who briefed reporters before the summit, said Moscow's efforts to acquire drones from Tehran show that Russia is "effectively making a bet on Iran."Mr. Biden's attendance at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit followed his Friday meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the oil-rich kingdom's de facto ruler and heir to the throne currently held by his father, King Salman.The president had initially shunned Prince Mohammed over human rights abuses, particularly the killing of U.S.-based writer Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence officials believe was likely approved by the crown prince. But Mr. Biden decided he needed to repair the longstanding relationship between the two countries to address rising gas prices and foster stability in the volatile region.Biden and Prince Mohammed greeted each other with a fist bump when the president arrived at the royal palace in Jeddah, a gesture that was swiftly criticized. Biden later said he did not shy away from discussing Khashoggi's killing during their meeting.The topic created a "frosty" start to the discussion, according to a U.S. official familiar with the private conversations.However, the atmosphere eventually became more relaxed, the official said, as they spoke about energy security, expanding high-speed internet access in the Middle East and other issues. Mr. Biden even tried to inject some humor into the conversation by the end of the meeting, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity discuss a private meeting.The Saudi-owned Al Arabiya news network, citing an unnamed Saudi source, reported that Prince Mohammed responded to Mr. Biden's mention of Khashoggi by saying that attempts to impose a set of values can backfire. He also said the U.S. had committed mistakes at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, where detainees were tortured, and pressed Mr. Biden on the killing of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh during a recent Israeli raid on the West Bank city of Jenin.Adel Al-Jubeir, the kingdom's minister of state for foreign affairs, called the visit a "great success" and brushed off questions about friction between the two countries. ."Maybe the skeptics are people looking for theatrics or drama. The reality, however, is that this relationship is very solid," he told Arab News, a Saudi news organization. Mr. Biden, when he addresses the Gulf Cooperation Council, will offer his most fulsome vision yet for the region and the U.S. role there, the White House said. The Biden administration is also expected to announce $1 billion in food security assistance for the Middle East and North Africa.The president's first Middle East trip comes 11 months after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and as Mr. Biden aims to reprioritize the U.S. away from the Middle East's ruinous wars and ongoing conflicts stretching from Libya to Syria.Energy prices — elevated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine — were expected to be high on the agenda. But Mr. Biden aides tempered expectations that he would leave with a deal for regional producers to immediately boost supply."I suspect you won't see that for another couple of weeks," Mr. Biden told reporters late Friday.At the summit, Mr. Biden was set to hear concerns about regional stability and security, food security, climate change and the continued threat of terrorism.Overall, there's little that the nine Mideast heads of state agree on when it comes to foreign policy. For example, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE are trying to isolate and squeeze Iran over its regional reach and proxies. Oman and Qatar, on the other hand, have solid diplomatic ties with Iran and have acted as intermediaries for talks between Washington and Tehran.Qatar recently hosted talks between U.S. and Iranian officials as they try to revive Iran's nuclear accord. Iran not only shares a huge underwater gas field with Qatar in the Persian Gulf, it rushed to Qatar's aid when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut off ties and imposed a years-long embargo on Qatar that ended shortly before Mr. Biden took office. Mr. Biden's actions have frustrated some of the leaders. While the U.S. has played an important role in encouraging a months-long ceasefire in Yemen, his decision to reverse a Trump-era move that had listed Yemen's rebel Houthis as a terrorist group has outraged the Emirati and Saudi leadership. In: Mohammad bin Salman al Saud Iran Joe Biden Russia China Thanks for reading CBS NEWS. Create your free account or log in for more features. Please enter email address to continue Please enter valid email address to continue | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Media reports indicated U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will depart with a delegation of lawmakers on her trip to Asia late Friday, but whether she plans to go through with a controversial visit to Taiwan is unclear.
During a briefing Friday, Pelosi, as she has repeatedly done in recent days, refused to discuss a departure date for her trip, citing security concerns. But she said the trip was significant because U.S. President Joe Biden had emphasized the Asia-Pacific region in his foreign policy and Congress had a role to play in that.
Since the possible visit to Taiwan was mentioned earlier this month as part of the speaker's August Asian tour, China has reacted strongly, warning the U.S. government against it.
Taiwan has long been a point of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. China claims the island democracy as part of its territory. While the U.S. nominally has a "one China" policy that recognizes both Taiwan and China as part of the same country, it maintains "strategic ambiguity" in its relations with them.
Since taking office, Biden has suggested several times that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily if China attempted to retake the island by force, appearing to deviate from the U.S. tradition of not definitively stating how it would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
Taiwan was a primary point of discussion during a phone call Thursday between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China's Foreign Ministry, in a readout of the call, quoted Xi as telling Biden, in reference to the planned trip, "Those who play with fire will perish by it."
China issued a similar warning Friday during a discussion about Ukraine in a meeting of the U.N. Security Council. China's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Geng Shuang said that while the U.S. has declared its support for Ukraine's sovereignty, "it has incessantly challenged the sovereignty of China over Taiwan."
"China is resolute and firm as rock in its will to safeguard national sovereignty. No one should underestimate the determination and ability of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity," Geng said, also warning the U.S. not to "play with fire."
Pelosi has been a critic of China's social policies for many years. When asked about her upcoming Asia trip last week, she said, "It's important for us to show support for Taiwan. None of us has ever said we're for independence when it comes to Taiwan. That's up to Taiwan to decide."
The Associated Press reported that Taiwan leaders this week said they would welcome a visit from Pelosi. In comments Wednesday, Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang said, "We are very grateful to Speaker Pelosi, who has been very supportive and friendly to Taiwan for many years, and we would welcome any friendly foreign guest to visit."
If she decides to stop there, Pelosi would be the first sitting U.S. House speaker to visit Taiwan since Newt Gingrich went there in 1997. The speaker's trip includes stops in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore — all U.S. allies in the region.
Some information for this report came from The Associated Press. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
GettyThe U.S. ambassador to Hungary is the latest American official to earn the Kremlin’s ire over remarks he made last week publicly deriding Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “small man” and “a holdover from a time that most of the world has tried to move beyond.”In a speech on Jan. 6 commemorating the 45th Anniversary of the Return of the Hungarian Holy Crown, Ambassador David Pressman took the opportunity to slam Russia’s war as the product of “tyranny” and “authoritarianism” before taking a jab directly aimed at Putin.The Russian president “can only lead through fear and intimidation,” said Pressman. “The Ukrainians, much like the Hungarians decades earlier, had already made their decision. They had already charted their course, and it did not include a return to a broken, abusive system that had failed them for so long.”Russian officials, it appears, have not taken well to the remarks.In a Telegram post on Tuesday, the Russian embassy in Hungary went on a tirade against Pressman’s “unacceptable” remarks about “the personality of a foreign Head of State,” calling his comments “an outrageous violation of basic diplomatic protocol and practice,” according to Russian state news agency TASS.Russian Fury After Top Putin Official Is Booted From Diplomats MeetingIn an extraordinary show of pettiness, the Russian officials proposed that Pressman “make up for the lack of professionalism in the field of diplomacy” by reading “a famous book by the ‘patriarch’ of American foreign policy, Henry Kissinger, which is conveniently entitled Diplomacy.” The Russian diplomats even went so far as to provide a link to a Hungarian bookstore that sells copies of the Kissinger book.It’s not the first time that Pressman, a human rights attorney, has been attacked for his candor since he was appointed the U.S. ambassador to Hungary in August. According to Politico, Pressman has been a go-to target of criticism from the country’s state media outlets for calling out the Hungarian regime’s propaganda—and even making cheeky comparisons between comments made by Hungarian officials and Putin.“When we see insane Kremlin stories being re-propagated in the Hungarian media, we’re gonna call that out, because we have to,” he told the outlet in November. “All of that is with the intent to pull us closer together—not to push us apart.”Responding to a request for comment from The Daily Beast, the U.S. Embassy in Budapest said: “We believe the Ambassador’s remarks speak for themselves.”Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet the Daily Beast's biggest scoops and scandals delivered right to your inbox. Sign up now.Stay informed and gain unlimited access to the Daily Beast's unmatched reporting. Subscribe now. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Canada, U.S. and Europe direct more sanctions at Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s eastern territories as Russian threats escalate.Tonda MacCharlesOttawa BureauFri., Sept. 30, 20224 min. readArticle was updated 55 mins ago OTTAWA—Russia’s war on Ukraine escalated sharply Friday after President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed four eastern Ukraine territories, prompting Kyiv to apply for fast-track membership in NATO and the U.S. and Canada to promise more support.In Moscow, Putin renewed threats to use tactical nuclear weapons and blamed the West for sabotaging Russia-built undersea gas pipelines to Germany — an accusation the White House flatly rejected.In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly condemned Putin’s latest moves, including “sham” votes this week that were “political theatre” to justify Friday’s “illegitimate” annexations.Joly said Canada supports Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly met Friday with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, D.C., not long after President Vladimir Putin vowed to claim four regions of Ukraine as Russian territory. Joly and Blinken were clear: that won't affect the West's efforts to help Ukraine win the war. (SEPT. 30 / THE CANADIAN PRESS)Blinken was more cautious, saying only there is a “process” to follow for any country seeking to join the western military alliance. Sweden and Finland were fast-tracked as countries with “very advanced militaries that are fully interoperable already with NATO, with equipment that is also fully compatible with what NATO countries have, and of course, strong democracies that have been partners as part of the European Union and with us for many, many, many years,” he said.Under NATO’s article five, an attack on any member nation is considered an attack on all.Neither Joly nor Blinken downplayed the seriousness of the new threats as they rolled out more sanctions with the European Union targeted at Russian oligarchs and senior officials operating in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the four annexed eastern Ukraine territories.Blinken said the U.S. is looking at whether Russia is “actually doing anything” to act on its tactical nuclear weapons threat, saying Putin’s “loose talk about nuclear weapons is the height of irresponsibility and it’s something that we take very seriously.”So far, Blinken said the U.S. has “not seen them take these actions,” but he underlined that the U.S. administration is planning against “every possible scenario including this one.”Ultimately, the question of how the West should respond “is a U.S. decision,” said foreign policy expert Janice Stein of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.For the last four months, she said the U.S. has had a “tiger team working full time inside the U.S. national security council” that is gaming out every conceivable response to actions Russia might take, because the stakes continue to rise.“This is a life-and-death struggle for Ukraine. But nevertheless, we’ve seen now how much is at stake for Putin. He’s doubled down on everything.” In her view, it is an “especially dangerous” period she likened to the 1950s when the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union had early nuclear weapons, “but there were no rules.”“What makes it so dangerous is that neither the United States right now nor Russia is confident about the rules. So they push and it’s always possible that one or the other miscalculates and they go over the edge.”On Friday, Canada along with other G7 countries issued a joint statement denouncing Putin’s actions, calling the annexation “a new low point in Russia’s blatant flouting of international law.”“We will impose further economic costs on Russia, and on individuals and entities — inside and outside of Russia — that provide political or economic support to these violations of international law,” the declaration said. It supported Ukraine’s right “to defend itself against Russia’s war of aggression and its unquestionable right to reclaim its territory from Russia.”Canada’s latest round of sanctions targeted 43 Russian oligarchs, a “so-called governing body in Kherson,” and 35 Russia-backed senior officials in the eastern Ukrainian territories.That brings the count to more than 1,400 individuals and entities Canada has sanctioned in response to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, and comes on top of more than 400 sanctions (for a total of more than 1,800) that had earlier been imposed after the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea.Joly said Friday that Canada must “redouble efforts for the Ukrainian people” — days after Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters “what we all have to do now is double down on supporting Ukraine.”Ukraine continues to press Canada for more weapons, ammunition and financial support.Stein said there is room for Canada to more swiftly deliver weapons and ammunition, because Ukraine is suffering casualties and burning through supplies. “So if we’re doubling down, we have to do much better on that. We’ve pledged but not delivered, unlike financial assistance, which we have pledged and delivered.”One Germany-based institute that tracks global donations to Ukraine ranks Canada 13th in terms of financial assistance as a percentage of GDP, and fifth in terms of military aid.Stein suggested there is less to do on sanctions because “we’ve sanctioned all the big fish” with previous penalties on Russia’s central bank and its governor, and restrictions on trade exports. “So it’s not an unwillingness to do more, we’ve exhausted the field.” She predicted the major impact of those sanctions would be felt next spring when technology restrictions really begin to bite “because of the inability to import technology and critical parts, for advanced weaponry, and for what it takes to run an industrial economy.” SHARE:JOIN THE CONVERSATION Anyone can read Conversations, but to contribute, you should be registered Torstar account holder. If you do not yet have a Torstar account, you can create one now (it is free)Sign InRegisterConversations are opinions of our readers and are subject to the Code of Conduct. The Star does not endorse these opinions. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
KYIV, Ukraine - Waves of explosives-laden suicide drones struck Ukraine's capital Monday, setting buildings ablaze and tearing a hole in one of them. People scurried for shelter or tried to shoot down the kamikazes. The concentrated use of the drones was the second barrage in as many weeks -- after months in which air attacks had become become a rarity in central Kyiv. The assault sowed terror and frayed nerves as blasts rocked the city. Energy facilities were struck and one drone largely collapsed a residential building, killing four people, authorities said. Intense, sustained bursts of gunfire rang out as the Iranian-made Shahed drones buzzed overhead, apparently from soldiers trying to destroy them. Others headed for shelter, nervously scanning the skies. But Ukraine has become grimly accustomed to attacks nearly eight months into the Russian invasion, and city life resumed as rescuers picked through debris. Complete coverage of the war in Ukraine Previous Russian airstrikes on Kyiv were mostly with missiles. Analysts believe the slower-moving Shahed drones can be programmed to accurately hit certain targets using GPS unless the system fails. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Monday's barrage came in successive waves of 28 drones -- in what many fear could become a more common mode of attack as Russia seeks to avoid depleting its stockpiles of long-range precision missiles. Five drones plunged into Kyiv itself, said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. In the Kyiv region, at least 13 were shot down, all flying in from the south, said Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine's air force. One strike appeared to target the city's heating network, hitting an operations center. Another slammed into a four-story residential building, ripping open a gaping hole and collapsing at least three apartments on top of each other. Four bodies were recovered, including those of a woman who was 6 months pregnant and her husband, Klitschko said. An older woman and another man also were killed there. An Associated Press photographer caught one of the drones on camera, its triangle-shaped wing and pointed warhead clearly visible against the blue sky. "The whole night, and the whole morning, the enemy terrorizes the civilian population," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post. "Kamikaze drones and missiles are attacking all of Ukraine." "The enemy can attack our cities, but it won't be able to break us," he wrote. Andrii Yermak, head of the presidential office, posted on social media that Shahed drones were used. Zelenskyy, citing Ukrainian intelligence services, has previously alleged Russia has ordered 2,400 of the drones from Iran. Russia has rebranded them as Geran-2 drones -- meaning "geranium" in Russian. A photo of debris from one of Monday's strikes, posted by Klitschko, showed the word Geran-2 marked on a mangled tail fin. Iran has previously denied providing Russia with weapons, although its Revolutionary Guard chief has boasted about providing arms to the world's top powers, without elaborating. The drones pack an explosive charge and can linger over targets before nosediving into them. Their blasts jolted people awake. They included Snizhana Kutrakova, 42, who lives close to one of the strikes. "I'm full of rage," she said. "Full of rage and hate." The Russian military said it used "long-range air- and sea-based high-precision weapons" to strike Ukrainian military and energy facilities. They hit "all assigned targets," Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for European Union sanctions on Iran for providing drones to Russia. He reiterated Ukraine's need for air defenses and ammunition, saying he'd addressed a meeting of EU counterparts from a bomb shelter because air raid sirens were howling. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the 27-nation bloc is gathering evidence about Iran's drone sales to Russia, and if the allegations are true, "we will be ready to react with the tools at our disposal." The EU also approved a military training program in Europe for thousands of Ukrainian troops and plans for about 500 million euros ($486 million) in extra funds to buy weapons for Ukraine. Iranian-made drones have been used elsewhere in Ukraine in recent weeks against urban centers and infrastructure, including power stations. At just $20,000 apiece, the Shahed is only a fraction of the cost of higher-tech missiles and conventional aircraft. The Kalibr cruise missile that Russia has used widely in Ukraine costs the Russian military about $1 million each. Drone swarms also challenge Ukrainian air defenses. Western nations have promised systems that can shoot down drones but much of that weaponry has yet to arrive in Ukraine and, in some cases, may be months away. "The challenges are serious because the air defense forces and means are the same as they were at the beginning of the war," said Ihnat, the air force spokesman. Some air defense weaponry supplied by the West can only be used during daylight hours when targets are visible, he added. Russia forces also struck energy infrastructure elsewhere on Monday, apparently seeking to compound pressure on Kyiv's government after previous attacks knocked out power supplies. Shmyhal, the prime minister, said hundreds of settlements were without power after missile attacks on critical infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions. Ukraine's nuclear operator said Russian shelling cut off power again to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, one of the most worrying flashpoints of the Russian invasion. The nuclear plant, Europe's largest, needs power for critical safety systems. When shelling severs its power supply lines, the plant is forced to fall back on diesel generators -- a temporary stopgap. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said Friday that there was no need for more widespread attacks against Ukraine -- after a barrage of strikes earlier in the week that he said were retaliation for the bombing of a bridge connecting Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula with Russia. However, Putin also said that seven of 29 targets designated after the bridge attack were not hit "the way the Defense Ministry had planned," so Moscow's forces would continue to target them. He didn't specify the targets. After months during which strikes in central Kyiv were rare, last week's attacks put the country and its capital back on edge. Monday's strike on Kyiv came amid intensified fighting in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as a continued Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Zelenskyy said Sunday that there was heavy fighting around the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the industrial east known as the Donbas, and were two of four regions annexed by Russia in September in defiance of international law. In the south, Ukrainian air forces reported shooting down nine drones over the Mykolaiv region and six more over the Odesa region. The governor of the eastern Kharkiv region said overnight attacks on a city and villages killed one woman and injured four more people. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
In a video released to social media earlier this week, former President claimed the United States is “teetering on the brink” of World War, listing among the reasons “warmongers” at the State Department, the Pentagon, and in the “national security industrial complex.”
Here's the transcript of the statement.
World War Three has never been closer than it is right now. We need to clean the house of all of the warmongers and America’s last globalists in the deep state the Pentagon, the State Department, and the National Security Industrial complex.
One of the reasons I was the only president in generations who didn't start a war is that I was the only president who rejected the catastrophic advice of many of Washington's generals, bureaucrats, and the so-called diplomats who only know how to get us into conflict, but they don't know how to get us out.
For decades, we've had the very same people, such as Victoria Newland and many others, just like are obsessed with pushing Ukraine toward NATO, not to mention the State Department support for uprisings in Ukraine.
These people have been seeking confrontation for a long time, much like the case in Iraq and other parts of the world. And now we're teetering on the brink of World War Three, and a lot of people don't see it, but I see it, and I've been right about a lot of things.
They all say Trump's been right about everything. None of these excuses in any way the outrageous and horrible invasion of Ukraine one year ago, which would have never happened if I was your president.
Not even a little chance. But it does mean that here in America, we need to get rid of the corrupt globalist establishment that has botched every major foreign policy decision for decades. And that includes President Biden, whose own people said he has never made a good decision when it comes to looking at other countries and looking at wars; we have to replace them with people who support American interests.
Over our four years in the White House, we made incredible progress in putting the America last contingent aside. And bringing the world to peace. And now we're going to complete the mission. The State Department, Pentagon, and national security establishment will be a very different place by the end of my administration.
In fact, just into my administration, it'll be a very different place, and it'll get things done just like I did four years ago. We never had it so good. We'll also stop the lobbyists and the big defense contractors from going in and pushing our senior military and national security officials toward conflict, only to reward them when they retire with lucrative jobs, getting paid millions and millions of dollars.
Take a look at the globalist warmonger donors backing our opponents. That's because they're candidates of war. I am the president who delivers peace, and it's peace through strength. There was a reason we had no conflict.
There was a reason we didn't get into wars because other countries respected us. I entirely built, all right from the beginning, rebuilt our military. It's a big reason for that. They didn't want to mess around with the United States, and now they're laughing at us.
We could end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours with the right leadership. At the end of my next four years, the warmongers and frauds, and failures of the senior ranks of our government will all be gone.
And we will have a new group of competent national security officials who believe in defending America's vital interest above all else. Thank you very much. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine has launched a surprise counterattack in the north-east Kharkiv region, stretching Russian forces who are also facing Ukrainian attacks in the south.An official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People’s Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces “encircled” Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.“Today, the Ukrainian armed forces, after prolonged artillery preparation … began an attack on Balakliia,” Daniil Bezsonov said on Telegram.“At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire,” he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.Unverified footage circulating on social media on Wednesday showed what looked like a Ukrainian soldier posing in front of the entrance sign for Balakliia.Analysts have said that the initial target of the offensive could be the city of Kupyansk, a key road hub for Russian supplies heading south from the border into eastern Ukraine.Ukraine’s army has yet to comment on the alleged offensive.One of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s advisers, Oleksiy Arestovych, said last night that “lightning-fast changes are taking place” in the Kharkiv region, in parallel to the southern offensive in the Kherson region announced by Ukraine’s military last week.The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based thinktank, reported today that Ukrainian forces likely captured Verbivka (less than 3km north-west of Balakliia) on Tuesday, citing geo-locatable images posted by Ukrainian soldiers.Without specifying any locations, the Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Haidai told Ukrainian television on Wednesday that a “counterattack is under way and … our forces are enjoying some success. Let’s leave it at that.”Ukraine’s military did give some confirmation of the alleged offensive on Wednesday claiming Ukraine’s army shot down a Russian military Sukhoi Su-25 aircraft near Volokhiv Yar, a town about 12 miles from Balakliia.On Tuesday afternoon, Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser to Zelenskiy, published and then later deleted a tweet saying that there would be “great news from president Zelenskiy on the counteroffensive operation in Kharkiv region”. But in his nightly address, Zelenskiy did not mention the Kharkiv offensive and instead urged people to pay equal attention to fighting on all areas of the front.“It is simply unfair when there are a lot of talks about certain areas of the front, while others seem to be forgotten,” he said.Ukraine for a long time spoke openly of its intent to launch a large-scale southern offensive in the Kherson region, forcing Russia to transfer some of its most elite units from the east to Kherson.According to the ISW, this has now opened up opportunities for Ukraine to now launch attacks near Kharkiv.“Russia’s deployment of forces from Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine to Ukraine’s south is likely enabling Ukrainian counterattacks of opportunity,” the thinktank wrote late on Tuesday.“The 6 September Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson oblast,” ISW added.Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the Ukrainian attack indicates that Russian forces near Kharkiv were stretched.“Russia doesn’t have strong reserves in this area that could be sent quickly to plug gaps and reinforce key towns. Ukraine may have a numerical and armour superiority here.”The Russian government and its defence ministry have also not commented on Ukraine’s alleged offensives.Speaking at an economic forum in the far-eastern Russian city of Vladivostok on Wednesday, Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Russia had not lost anything as a result of its military campaign in Ukraine.But a number of prominent pro-Kremlin bloggers volleyed criticism at the Russian authorities after Ukraine’s latest offensive.Igor Girkin, a Russian ultra-nationalist and former military leader for the Russian-backed republics in eastern Ukraine, said the outskirts of Balakliia were defended by poorly equipped mobilised forces from the Donbas region who “didn’t know how to use available heavy weapons”.He added that Ukraine also took control of the settlement of Volokhiv Yar overnight.Aleksandr Kots, a pro-Kremlin war blogger, on Wednesday slammed the Russian authorities for hiding “bad news”.“We need to start doing something about the system where our leadership doesn’t like to talk about bad news and their subordinates don’t want to upset their bosses,” he said. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A Japanese journalist detained in Myanmar has been charged with breaching immigration law and encouraging dissent against the military, the ruling junta said Thursday.
Myanmar's military has clamped down on press freedoms since its coup last year, arresting reporters and photographers as well as revoking broadcasting licenses as the country plunged into chaos.
Toru Kubota, who was held while covering a protest in Yangon last week, "has been charged under section 505 (a) and under immigration law 13-1", the junta said in a statement.
505 (a) -- a law that criminalizes encouraging dissent against the military and carries a maximum three-year jail term -- has been widely used in the crackdown on dissent.
Breaching immigration law 13-1 carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison.
Filmmaker Kubota, 26, was detained near an anti-government rally in Yangon along with two Myanmar citizens.
After the charges were filed, he was transferred from police custody to Yangon's Insein prison, a security source told AFP, requesting anonymity.
"He's in good health and embassy officials have visited him already at the police station where he has been detained."
According to a profile on FilmFreeway, Kubota has previously made documentaries on Myanmar's Muslim Rohingya minority and "refugees and ethnic issues in Myanma."
Kubota had arrived in Myanmar on July 14 and was filming a "documentary featuring a Myanmar person," his friend Yoshitaka Nitta told a press conference in Tokyo on Wednesday.
He is the fifth foreign journalist to be detained in Myanmar, after U.S. citizens Nathan Maung and Danny Fenster, Robert Bociaga of Poland and Yuki Kitazumi of Japan -- all of whom were later freed and deported.
Fenster, who was held in May last year as he attempted to leave the country, faced a closed-door trial inside Insein on charges of unlawful association, incitement against the military and breaching visa rules.
He was sentenced to 11 years in prison before being pardoned and deported. 'War on journalists'
"The regime has declared war on journalists, and 505a is its preferred charge," said Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group.
"This charge against a Japanese journalist shows the regime is determined to continue stifling objective reporting, whether by local or foreign journalists." Japan's foreign ministry said in a statement that its embassy in Myanmar was "appealing to the Myanmar authorities for the early release of the Japanese man, and will continue to make efforts to gather information and request his early release."
Tokyo is a top donor to Myanmar and has long-standing relations with the country's military.
The already isolated junta stoked further international outrage last week when it announced the execution of four prisoners, in the country's first use of capital punishment in decades.
"The situation in Burma has gone from bad to worse," United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, using the country's former name, after talks with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.
Blinken met Borrell on the sidelines of a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Cambodia, from which Myanmar's top diplomat has been excluded over the junta's failure to open talks with its political opponents.
More than 2,100 people have been killed in the crackdown on dissent in Myanmar and almost 15,000 arrested, according to a local monitoring group.
As of March this year, 48 journalists remain in custody across the country, according to the monitoring group Reporting ASEAN.
Only China jailed more reporters than Myanmar last year, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
SummaryCompaniesWest will have to talk to Russia about world's future -PutinRussian leader plays down nuclear fearsWhite House: Putin remarks show no change in strategic goalsOct 28 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing no regrets for the war against neighbour Ukraine, insisting it is going to plan and playing down any nuclear standoff with the West.Putin, in remarks at a conference in Moscow on Thursday, had a familiar litany of grievances against "our Western opponents" and said the West's dominance over world affairs was coming to an end.Putin accused the West of inciting the war in Ukraine and of playing a "dangerous, bloody and dirty" game that was sowing chaos across the world. Ultimately, Putin said, the West would have to talk to Russia and other major powers about the future of the world."We are standing at a historical frontier: Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and, at the same time, important decade since the end of World War Two," the 70-year-old former KGB spy said at an annual foreign policy conference.The conflict, which began eight months ago with an invasion by Russian forces of neighbouring Ukraine, has killed thousands, displaced millions, shaken the global economy and reopened Cold War-era divisions.Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure were forcing electricity cuts in the capital Kyiv and other places, officials said.The missile and drone attacks would not break Ukrainian spirits, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Thursday night video address as he stood outside in the dark next to the wreckage of a downed drone."Shelling will not break us - to hear the enemy's anthem on our land is scarier than the enemy's rockets in our sky. We are not afraid of the dark," he said.NO MENTION OF SETBACKSAsked at the conference whether there had been any disappointments in the past year, Putin answered simply: "No", though he also said he always thinks about the Russian lives lost in Ukraine. In response to a question, Putin made no mention of Russia's battlefield setbacks of recent months.Asked whether the operation was going according to plan, Putin replied that Russian aims had not changed.Russia was fighting to protect the people of the Donbas, he said, referring to an eastern industrial region that comprises two of the four Ukrainian provinces he proclaimed annexed last month. Economic sanctions had already had their worst impact and would ultimately make Russia stronger by making its industry more independent, he said.Fighting has been going on in eastern Ukraine since 2014 between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists.Liberal Western leaders had undermined "traditional values" around the world, foisting a culture with "dozens of genders, gay parades" on other countries, Putin said.Putin's remarks were not very new and did not indicate a change in his strategic goals, including in Ukraine, the White House said.[1/10] Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the 19th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, Russia October 27, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS "At various levels we maintain open channels of communication with the Russians, and we will continue to use them," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said of Putin calling for strategic dialogue.A Ukrainian presidential adviser dismissed Putin's speech as "for Freud".NUCLEAR 'BLACKMAIL'In his speech, Putin played down a nuclear standoff with the West, insisting Russia had not threatened to use nuclear weapons and had only responded to nuclear "blackmail" from Western leaders. He and other Russian officials have repeatedly said in recent weeks that Russia could use nuclear weapons to protect its territorial integrity, remarks interpreted in the West as implicit threats to use them to defend parts of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed. Scores of countries have condemned the annexations as illegal.He also repeated Russia's latest allegation - that Ukraine was planning to use a so-called "dirty bomb" to spread nuclear material, which the United States, Britain and France have called "transparently false". Putin said the Ukrainians would carry out such an attack to blame Russia.A suggestion by Kyiv that the Russian charge might mean Moscow plans to detonate a "dirty bomb" itself was false, he said."We don't need to do that. There would be no sense whatsoever in doing that," Putin said.KHERSON SHELLINGFighting on the ground appears to have slowed in recent days, with Ukrainian officials saying tough terrain and bad weather had held up their main advance in southern Kherson province.On Thursday a close ally of Putin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, said 23 of his soldiers had been killed and 58 others wounded in a Ukrainian artillery attack this week in Kherson region. After the attack, Chechen forces carried out a revenge attack and killed about 70 Ukrainians, he said. Reuters was not immediately able to verify his account.Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions along the entire length of the line of contact and built fortifications, particularly on the east bank of the Dnipro River, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a Facebook post on Thursday evening.Russian forces targeted more than 15 localities along the front line, the post said.Russian forces were enduring shortages of material and equipment, including warm winter clothing, and this had prompted a rise in theft and looting in Russian-occupied areas, it said.Russian forces persisted in attempts to advance on the two theatres of heaviest fighting in eastern Donetsk region - Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Ukrainian military said.Reuters was not able to verify battlefield reports.Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Peter Graff and Grant McCool; Editing by Cynthia OstermanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
October 18, 2022 07:11 AM CHINA: ‘STATUS QUO NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE’: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning that Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is about to be awarded an unprecedented third five-year term as leader of China, has grown impatient with Taiwan and wants to take control of the self-governing island much sooner than previously thought. “There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” said Blinken at a Hoover Institution event at Stanford University. Blinken said Xi is “profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions” as he ramps up the threats to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. “And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means — and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means — to achieve its objectives.” “I hope that Beijing will come back to a place where it actually sees the merits in making sure that differences are peacefully resolved, that it doesn’t try to force things through coercion and, even worse, through force,” Blinken said. “We are determined to make good on our commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and supporting their ability to defend themselves.” XI’S LATEST THREAT: Blinken’s warning comes as President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan if it were to be invaded by mainland China, most recently in a CBS 60 Minutes interview, and as Biden’s just-released National Security Strategy names China as America’s “only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.” And it follows Xi Jinping’s Sunday speech to the Chinese Communist Party National Congress, where he expressed frustration with what he called “serious provocations from separatist activities by Taiwan independence forces” and specifically vowed that “complete reunification of the motherland must be realized and can certainly be realized." “We persist in striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity,” Xi said. “However, there is no commitment to renounce the use of force, and the option to take all necessary measures is retained." XI WILLING TO TAKE ‘ALL MEASURES NECESSARY’ AGAINST ‘INTERFERENCE’ ON TAIWAN THE US STRATEGY: The unclassified version of the Biden strategy calls for the U.S. to outcompete China while finding areas of cooperation, such as working to combat climate change and improve global health. “It is possible for the United States and the PRC to coexist peacefully, and share in and contribute to human progress together,” the 48-page document said, insisting that despite Biden’s promise to send troops to defend Taiwan if necessary, U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unchanged. “We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side, and do not support Taiwan independence. We remain committed to our one China policy,” the document stated. “We made it clear that we consider China a strategic competitor and we mean to compete. There's no reason for it to devolve into aggressiveness or open conflict,” said John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, on CNN. “But we will make sure in every way, and it's right there in that strategy, that we're going to be able to defend our national security interests and we're going to be able to deal with the threats and challenges that emanate from the Indo-Pacific, including those from the PRC.” CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO LOYAL READERS: Did you miss your Daily on Defense newsletter yesterday morning? We had some gremlins in our system, which resulted in a large number of subscribers either not receiving the emailed version or having it diverted to their spam folder. We regret the inconvenience, and we have our crack IT team on the case, but remember, if you don’t see your Daily on Defense in your morning inbox, you can always find the most recent edition on our website at DailyonDefense.com. It posts there shortly after 7 a.m., where you can see it first, before it gets emailed out 15-20 minutes later. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: The Heritage Foundation is unveiling its 2023 edition of the Index of U.S. Military Strength, an annual report card on how the U.S. military is faring, and the conservative think tank said U.S. military forces are in “a diminished state” and that this year’s rankings of the services should be “a sobering wake-up call to anyone who wants to keep America free, safe, and prosperous in a changing world.” “As currently postured, the U.S. military is at growing risk of not being able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests. It is rated as weak relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were,” said the report's executive summary. “This is the logical consequence of years of sustained use, underfunding, poorly defined priorities, wildly shifting security policies, exceedingly poor discipline in program execution, and a profound lack of seriousness across the national security establishment even as threats to U.S. interests have surged.” This morning, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Dakota Wood, senior research fellow, defense programs at Heritage, will discuss the report’s conclusions at 10 a.m., and you can read the full report here. UKRAINE NEEDS MORE SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE: With Russia moving to low, slow-flying, Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones for terror attacks against civilian infrastructure, Ukraine now needs a different kind of air defense to shoot more of them down, according to U.S. military experts. Ukraine is under drone attack again today, and while the noisy drones, which sound like gas lawnmowers, are being shot down in significant numbers, enough is getting through to cause havoc. Ukraine claimed that of 43 drones launched yesterday, 37 were destroyed before they hit a target. “We saw that the Ukrainians were able to knock out 85%. But again, they're being deployed in swarms, so a few are going to get through,” said retired Army Brig. Gen. Steve Anderson on CNN. “What they need is they need some low-range capability. And I submit to you that we need to look at the United States at providing the C-RAM system. That's the C-RAM, counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar. These are incredibly effective systems,” said Anderson, who used the system when he commanded U.S. troops in Afghanistan. “If you got something that's good enough to shoot out a mortar round, then, I mean, it's going to be easy pickings for anything that's flying in a UAV,” he said. “These are the systems that the United States needs to get on the ground in Ukraine now.” “We're going to continue to provide them air defense capabilities,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on CNN. “I don't have anything to announce today or get ahead of the next shipment, but I can tell you that from short to medium range, we have been working closely to try to get them the kinds of capabilities that they need.” IRAN IN FOCUS AS RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ENDANGER WESTERN DIPLOMATS IN UKRAINE ELON VS. ADAM: Lame-duck Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) has been challenging billionaire Elon Musk on Twitter over the Tesla CEO’s suggestions that Russia needs to be taken seriously over its threats to use a tactical nuclear weapon if it’s losing on the battlefield. “If Russia faces destruction of their army and utter defeat by NATO, they will use nukes, then NATO will respond with nukes and civilization is over,” Musk tweeted yesterday. Which prompted Kinzinger to respond, “So if you get nukes and threaten it, you will never be defeated. Great lesson. Now everyone will get nukes.” “If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We’ve already sanctioned/cutoff Russia in every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose?” Musk tweeted, expanding on his premise. “If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.” “Whether one likes it or not, Crimea is absolutely seen as a core part of Russia by Russia,” Musk said, repeating one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main arguments. “Crimea is also of critical national security importance to Russia, as it is their southern navy base. From their standpoint losing Crimea is like USA losing Hawaii & Pearl Harbor.” FIONA HILL SAYS MUSK IS 'TRANSMITTING A MESSAGE FOR PUTIN' WITH PEACE PROPOSAL SAVE THOSE DOCS: Concerned that the Biden administration may be covering up documentation of some of its missteps during last year’s evacuation of U.S. forces and partners from Afghanistan, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) is requesting the State Department preserve all documents related to what he called “the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.” “I am writing to formally request the preservation of documents and to renew prior requests for information regarding last year’s disastrous Afghanistan evacuation — some stretching back more than a year — for which we have not received satisfactory responses,” McCaul wrote in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “Access to this information is critical to the Constitutional legislative and oversight responsibilities of Congress, and it is unacceptable for such requests to be ignored or given the attention they deserve.” CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The Rundown Washington Examiner: Iran in focus as Russian drone strikes endanger Western diplomats in Ukraine Washington Examiner: Exxon fully exits Russia after Putin nationalizes assets Washington Examiner: Russia continues attacks on Kyiv with Iranian 'kamikaze' drones Washington Examiner: Ukraine and Russia agree to prisoner exchange freeing more than 200 Washington Examiner: Xi willing to take ‘all measures necessary’ against ‘interference’ on Taiwan Washington Examiner: Opinion: Will Russia's conscript woes roil Vladimir Putin's government? Washington Examiner: DOJ says Steve Bannon should be sentenced to six months in prison for ‘contempt of Congress’ Washington Post: Most Ukrainians want to fight until victory, poll shows New York Times: Deadly Message Sent by Drones: It’s Russia and Iran vs. the West Wall Street Journal: Russia Gives Ukraine Nuclear Plant Workers Ultimatum to Pick a Side Breaking Defense: China’s Military Committee Leadership at Stake at Xi’s Peoples Congress Defense One: When China Pushes, Push Back, Admiral Says Defense News: Senate To Add $10 Billion In Taiwan Aid, Scale Back Arms Sale Reform Washington Post: Western Suppliers Ditch Chinese Chipmakers Over U.S. Export Rules Yonhap: Accusations That U.S. Provoked N. Korean Missile Tests 'Baloney': State Department Politico: Pentagon Eyes Locking in Starlink Funding for Ukraine Defense News: Lawmakers Seek Emergency Powers For Pentagon’s Ukraine War Contracting Business Insider: A Quiet US Move In The Mediterranean May Help Put More Pressure On Russia, But Not Everyone In NATO Is Happy About It Air & Space Forces Magazine: TRANSCOM Unveils More Agile Strategy to Deter China, Defend Logistics Air & Space Forces Magazine: Roper, Former Joint Chiefs Chair Join Defense Innovation Board for First Meeting in Two Years Wall Street Journal: US Pushes to Keep B-52 Bombers Going as Pressure From China Grows Air & Space Forces Magazine: Image of New B-52 Cockpit Shows a Cleaner Layout Defense News: US Air Force Tests Exoskeleton to Give Cargo-loading Porters a Boost 19fortyfive.com: Putin's Crisis: The Russian Military Is Failing in Ukraine 19fortyfive.com: Putin Doesn't Care: Russia Rushes Untrained, Unequipped Troops to Ukraine 19fortyfive.com: How to Organize Ukraine's Army After the War with Russia 19fortyfive.com: The Iranian Drones and Ballistic Missiles That Might End Up in Russia's Arsenal 19fortyfive.com: Mackenzie Eaglen: Opinion: Why Biden's National Security Strategy Is Destined to Fail Forbes: Marine Corps War Plans Are Too Sino-Centric. What About The Other 90% Of The World? Calendar TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18 7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association “Precision Strike Technology Symposium,” with Navy Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director of Strategic Systems Programs; and Air Force Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration at Air Force Headquarters https://www.ndia.org/ 10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “The Diminished State of Today’s Military,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Dakota Wood, Heritage senior research fellow for defense programs; and Kevin Roberts, president, Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/the-diminished-state-todays-military 10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. N.W. — German Marshall Fund of the United States discussion focusing on the war in Ukraine, with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur and Kristine Berzina, GMFUS senior fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/conversation-defense-minister-hanno-pevkur 12 p.m. — Middle East Institute and American Task Force on Lebanon virtual discussion: “The historic Lebanon-Israel maritime agreement," with Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), co-chairman of the U.S.-Lebanon Friendship Caucus; U.S. Special Envoy for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein; and Lebanese Parliament Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab https://www.mei.edu/events/atfl-mei-discussion 12 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies book discussion: Offensive Cyber Operations: Understanding Intangible Warfare, with author Daniel Moore https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 1 p.m. — The Hill online event: “National Security At The Speed Of Sound: Hypersonics in American Defense," with Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ); Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association's Emerging Technologies Institute; Kelly Stephani, mechanical science and engineering associate professor in the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; and John Otto, senior director of advanced hypersonic weapons at Raytheon Missiles and Defense https://thehill.com/events/3668647-national-security-at-the-speed-of-sound 1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on "Is Iran on the Brink?" with Jason Rezaian, Iranian-American journalist and writer at Washington Post Global Opinions; Arash Azizi, adjunct instructor, New York University; and Yeganeh Rezaian, senior researcher, Committee to Protect Journalists https://www.csis.org/events/iran-brink 2:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur to the Pentagon WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19 7:45 a.m 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme "Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict," with Navy Vice Adm. Carl Chebi, commander, Naval Air Systems Command https://www.ndia.org 10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How will the U.S. Navy navigate an uncertain security environment?" with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-will-the-us-navy-navigate 11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: "The Freedom Agenda and America's Future," with former Vice President Mike Pence https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/event/the-freedom-agenda 11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: "From The Boardroom to The Battlefield: Operationalizing AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning),” with Gregory Little, deputy comptroller for enterprise data and business performance in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary; Patrick McCartney, lead of the Air Force Futures's AI Cross Functional Team; Alexander O'Toole, engineering lead at the Defense Department; Kristin Saling, director Army Human Resources Command's Innovation Cell; Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy; and Brandi Vincent, reporter at DefenseScoop https://afceadc.swoogo.com/aiml2022 12:30 p.m. — Axios virtual event: “Cybersecurity Landscape Ahead of the Midterms,” with former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX); Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser for homeland security, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Sabin, Axios cybersecurity reporter; Alayna Treene, Axios congressional reporter; and Charley Snyder, head of cybersecurity policy, Google https://cybersecuritylandscape.splashthat.com THURSDAY | OCTOBER 20 7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme "Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict," with Brad Cardwell, program manager at the Missile Defense Agency. Register at https://www.ndia.org 10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: "China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower," with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao 12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How the latest women-led protests in Iran might shape the country's trajectory," with Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran; Golnaz Esfandiari, senior correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Nader Hashemi, director of the University of Denver's Center for Middle East Studies; and Assal Rad, research director at the National Iranian American Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event FRIDAY | OCTOBER 21 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Transatlantic Relations," focusing on the war in Ukraine and foreign policy priorities,” with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-transatlantic-relations QUOTE OF THE DAY “There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking Monday at an event at Stanford University | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Russian Constitutional Court Chairman Valery Zorkin during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Dec. 12, 2022. President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment that the Russian leader’s war has gone badly wrong. Putin typically uses the year-end ritual to polish his image, answering a wide range of questions on domestic and foreign policy to demonstrate his grip on details and give the semblance of openness even though the event is tightly stage-managed. But this year, with his troops on the back foot in Ukraine, it could be impossible to avoid uncomfortable questions about the Russian military’s blunders even at a highly choreographed event. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Monday that Putin wouldn’t hold the news conference this month without explaining why. “Although questions are almost certainly usually vetted in advance, the cancellation is likely due to increasing concerns about the prevalence of anti-war feeling in Russia,” the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote in a commentary on Twitter. “Kremlin officials are almost certainly extremely sensitive about the possibility that any event attended by Putin could be hijacked by unsanctioned discussion about the ‘special military operation,’” it said, using Moscow’s term for the war. Some of his previous performances lasted for more than 4 1/2 hours, during which he has sometimes faced some pointed questions, but used them to mock the West or denigrate his domestic opponents. Putin also has canceled another annual fixture this year, a televised call-in show in which he takes questions from the public to nurture his father-of-the-nation image. And he has so far failed to deliver the annual televised state-of-the-nation address to parliament, a constitutional obligation. No date has been set for Putin’s address. The Kremlin has muzzled any criticism of its invasion of Ukraine from the liberal anti-war camp, shutting independent media outlets and criminalizing the spread of any information that differs from the official view — including calling the campaign a war. But it has faced an increasingly vocal criticism from Russian hardliners, who have denounced the president as weak and indecisive and called for ramping up strikes on Ukraine. Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said in a video commentary that the decision not to hold the news conference was likely because Putin “has nothing to say from the point of view of strategy.” Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, claiming Moscow was forced to “demilitarize” the country in the face of NATO’s refusal to offer Russia guarantees that Ukraine wouldn’t be invited to join the alliance. Ukraine and much of the world denounced the Russian attack on its neighbor as an unprovoked act of aggression. Putin and his officials hoped to rout the Ukrainian military in a few days, but a fierce Ukrainian resistance — bolstered by Western weapons — quickly derailed those plans. After a botched attempt to quickly capture the Ukrainian capital, the Russian troops pulled back from areas around Kyiv in March. In September, Ukraine won back large swaths of land in the northeastern Kharkiv region, and last month it reclaimed control of the strategic southern port city of Kherson. A mobilization of 300,000 reservists that Putin ordered in September so far has failed to reverse battlefield fortunes for Russia. The mobilization order has prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad to avoid recruitment, and those who have been called up reported glaring shortages of key equipment and supplies. In a rare acknowledgement last week that the war in Ukraine is taking longer than he anticipated, Putin acknowledged that wrapping up the campaign could be a “lengthy process.” At the same time, he continued to claim that it was going according to plan and would achieve its goals. Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political expert, noted that Putin’s decision to ditch the news conference and his failure so far to deliver the state-of-the-nation address reflected his hesitancy about the future course of action. “Shall we forge ahead and defeat the enemy?” he wrote, reflecting hardliners’ calls for ramping up missile strikes on Ukraine. “Or on the contrary, shall we prepare for a difficult but necessary compromise?” ___ Follow AP war coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — Congressional Republicans have vowed to get tougher on China as they prepare to take control of the House, cheering critics of Beijing but also raising concern that one of Washington’s most important bilateral relationships could be further destabilized.Both Democrats and Republicans have grown more vigilant about China in recent years, but Republicans more often frame China’s rise as a threat to U.S. economic and national security. Though Democrats retained control of the Senate in the midterm elections last month, Republicans are now in a stronger position to scrutinize President Joe Biden’s China policies with their slim majority in the House.“Whatever the Biden administration does, the Republican opposition will take a position to the right of that and say that it’s not enough,” Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard University and a former assistant secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton, told NBC News.Covid tensionsRep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican nominee for House speaker, has said he would like to lead a congressional delegation to Taiwan, a self-ruling island Beijing claims as its territory. Such a move is guaranteed to infuriate China, which responded to a similar visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the summer with unprecedented live-fire military drills. McCarthy also says he plans to create a House select committee on China, the first since the late 1990s.“The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime,” he said in a statement last week announcing that the committee would be led by Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc.According to a blog post on McCarthy’s website, the committee will “investigate and provide policy recommendations on how the U.S. can win the economic and technological competition” with China in areas including trade, supply chain security and intellectual property protection.House Republicans will also investigate the origins of the coronavirus and “the CCP’s role in the spread,” the blog post said, although it is unclear whether that investigation would be part of the select committee. A report issued Wednesday evening by the Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee said that they have “reason to believe that the [intelligence community] downplayed the possibility that SARS-CoV2 was connected to China’s bioweapons program.” On Thursday, a House Intelligence report signed by Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) found that at the start of the pandemic, the intelligence community “did not pivot its clandestine collection quickly enough.”The debate over the origins of the virus, which was first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019, “is something that drives China crazy,” said Ian Johnson, senior fellow for China at the Council on Foreign Relations.Chinese officials have condemned a theory that the virus leaked from a Wuhan lab as a lie promoted by “anti-China forces” for political reasons, and criticized the World Health Organization’s suggestion of further investigation into the theory.The pandemic is just one of the issues that have brought U.S.-China relations to their lowest point in decades, along with disputes over trade, human rights and China’s growing military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Tensions were further inflamed in August by Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, the first by a sitting U.S. House speaker since 1997.Experts say Biden’s China policy has largely been the same as that of former President Donald Trump, who imposed tariffs on Chinese imports that led to a trade war. In October the Biden administration went further, announcing sweeping export controls limiting China’s access to strategically important semiconductor chips.While “responsibly managing” competition with China, the world’s second-largest economy, the White House says it also welcomes cooperation on issues of global importance such as climate change, public health and nuclear nonproliferation. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in person in Indonesia last month for the first time since Biden took office, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he plans to visit China early next year.On Friday Blinken announced the launch of a new Office of China Coordination in order to “ensure the U.S. government is able to responsibly manage our competition … and advance our vision for an open, inclusive international system.” Bipartisan ‘China bashing?’But U.S.-China relations could be disrupted by an atmosphere of political one-upmanship on China in a Republican-controlled House, said Michael O’Hanlon, the director of research for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.“They may decide that it’s good politics to really indulge in more China bashing, try to portray Biden as somehow weak on this issue, depending on how they choose to set themselves up to run against him in 2024,” he said.Some Republicans criticized the White House response to protests in China against “zero-Covid” controls that were the largest show of public unrest the country had seen in decades, with some protesters calling for Xi to step down.The White House defended Chinese citizens’ right to peacefully protest but stopped short of criticizing Beijing, in what some experts saw as an attempt to avoid supporting Chinese government claims that the protests were driven by “foreign forces.” McCarthy and other Republicans said Biden should have gone further.“As Chinese citizens bravely protest, Joe Biden & the corporate class shrug,” the Republican leader said on Twitter. “Our Select Committee on China will do what Biden refuses — finally reckon with the pariah that is the CCP.”Similarly, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tweeted: “When you speak out for freedom, that terrifies the tyrants in China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. But what does Joe Biden do? He appeases and shows weakness to all of them!”The Chinese government will be closely following the actions of the new Congress, said Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “I think it is worried about the prospect that a new Congress will get tough on China,” he said. At the same time, “Beijing would also welcome the opportunity for the improvement of the bilateral relationship.” House Republicans might try to be tougher on China than the Biden and Trump administrations, neither of which have been especially aggressive, said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. But if the select committee takes a bipartisan approach, he said, the House might be able to originate legislation that is signed into law.Some Republicans and Democrats have already found common ground on China legislation, pushing for bipartisan bills to ban TikTok, which has a China-based parent company, and restrict Huawei’s access to U.S. banks.“If it can’t be done on a bipartisan basis, there’s still a public relations effort in raising the profile of China to the American people and even to people in Washington,” Scissors said.Pro-business elements of the Republican Party could also serve as a moderating force, Scissors said.The most volatile issue in U.S.-China relations is the status of Taiwan, which Beijing has not ruled out seizing by force. While the White House maintains that its long-standing “One China” policy has not changed, there is bipartisan support in Congress for strengthening Washington’s unofficial ties with Taipei, as well as scattered calls for the United States. to make a full-throated commitment to defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion.Lawmakers from both parties have been visiting Taiwan with increasing frequency, drawing protests from Beijing.It is almost like McCarthy “kind of has to do it to show his bona fides,” Johnson said.These trips are more about politics than American national security or interests, Allison said.A visit by McCarthy would be “as irresponsible and reckless as his predecessor’s was and will produce another major Chinese step forward in demonstrating their capability to strangle Taiwan,” he said.Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi speaks with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei, Taiwan on Aug. 3, 2022.Chien Chih-Hung / Office of The President via Getty Images fileWu agreed: “I think China’s response to Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan basically set a precedent for China to follow in the future,” he said, adding that if McCarthy visits, it will be “a big shock in China-U.S. relations.”A spokesperson for McCarthy told NBC News last week there were no updates on a possible trip to Taiwan.Johnson said it was also China’s responsibility to put moves by U.S. lawmakers in context and not react with maximum force to actions that may be deliberately provocative. “I think if they are able to calibrate their response, then that could be a sign that they do want to improve relations with the U.S.,” he said. “If they really go ballistic over these things, then I think it’s a sign that they’re not able to control the hawks in their own government either.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The Ukraine divide threatens the GOP’s unwavering legacy on defense
The mindless, red-meat-type criticisms of America’s support of Ukraine by former President Trump and congressional acolytes such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and the equivocations of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), are enabling Vladimir Putin’s criminal aggression and threaten to despoil the Republican Party’s traditional advocacy of American world leadership.
For eight decades, ever since the years following the close of World War ll, the Republican Party has proudly worn the mantle of strong national defense. This belief in strong military and strong alliances reached its apex during the Reagan years with the tearing down of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
To be fair, there were strong national defense Democrats such as Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, former Sen. Henry “Scoop” Jackson (D-Wash.) and former Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.). But cracks in a bipartisan foreign policy consensus first emerged within the Democratic Party from its McGovernite wing, aptly labeled by ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick as the “blame America first” crowd. Except for a few outliers like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) Republicans stood unwaveringly against this appeasement movement. Until now.
Let me be clear, while I believe it is in America’s national interest to support Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky against Putin and Russia, I understand there can be legitimate questions about our current policy. For instance, I believe weapons systems should be supplied to Zelensky without so much delay and hesitation.
My objection is to the gratuitous criticisms of the Trump MAGA wing:
- “We should worry about our borders, not Ukraine’s.” This is eerily reminiscent of Charles Lindbergh and the “America First” foreign policy of the 1930s which was thoroughly discredited by Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor and Hitler’s Nazi aggression and acts of genocide.
- “The fighting will never end. There must be peace negotiations.” Very similar to former United Kingdom Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain who thought he had attained “peace for our time” with his concessions to Hitler at Munich.
- “We’ve already given Zelensky $100 billion in arms and humanitarian assistance. We can’t afford any more.” This is a lot of money but barely 25 percent of Biden’s $400 billion student loan forgiveness plan. Most importantly, it would be minuscule compared to the amount of American blood and treasure that could well be expended if Russia’s aggression is not halted.
- “We can’t keep giving Zelensky a blank check.” Totally false argument. No one supports a blank check as evidenced by the laborious process in place for every weapons request by Ukraine.
- “This is a proxy war against Russia.” It is a proxy war against Russian aggression. Would they rather have American boots on the ground?
Stopping Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in our national interest as well as Ukraine’s. The consequences would be far-reaching. If U.S. and NATO forces cannot outlast Russia in Ukraine, how could Russian moves against the Baltic States or Poland be resisted? Countries like Germany and France would be susceptible to Russia’s economic and energy pressures. As America’s shameful abandonment of Afghanistan encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine, China will be emboldened to attack Taiwan while neighboring nations such as Japan and South Korea will view the United States as an unreliable ally and be more accommodating to China.
If Donald Trump has intelligent objections to defending Ukraine, he should try to articulate them rather than sounding like a 1960s flower child denouncing American generals as “warmongers.” I never thought I would see the day when Sweden and Finland would be more willing than a former Republican president to stand against Russian imperialism.
It is time for Republicans to stand against the policies of surrender and appeasement lest, like Chamberlain, Lindbergh and that era’s failed America First policies, they be consigned to the ash heap of history.
Peter King was the U.S. representative of New York’s 2nd and 3rd congressional districts for 28 years, including serving as chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Follow him on Twitter @RepPeteKing. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Associated Press-Andrii Marienko Ukrainian servicemen prepare their weapon to fire Russian positions in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, early Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2022. Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive against Russian troops in the eastern region of the country last week, forcing the Russians to retreat from key cities and settlements. While Russia continues to hold onto large parts of Ukraine, experts say the Ukrainian rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv could be a sign of a major shift in the war. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN anchor Fareed Zakaria the gains indicated a weakening Russian position. “Let’s see how this plays out,” Warner said on “Fareed Zakaria GPS” on Sunday. “The Ukrainians are demonstrating their will to fight, and that’s one of the things you can never fully estimate no matter how good your intelligence is. And, candidly, the Russians’ inability and lack of supplies to their troops is playing out as well.” Warner noted Russia had expected a counteroffensive in the south, not in the northeastern Kharkiv region, where its forces were forced out of at least 40 settlements. Fighting continues in the regional cities of Kupiansk and Izium, according to an intelligence update from the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remained optimistic on Sunday. Zelensky told Zakaria that his troops are “slowly, gradually moving forward” until Ukraine reclaims all of the lost territory. “We have no other way. And it’s not our weakness. I believe it’s our strength,” Zelensky said. “Because Russia does have a way out. They can go back home. We have only this home to defend.” The counteroffensive could provoke a more aggressive reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who last week promised to “carry it through” to the end, in response to a question about the war. Oleg Nikolenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tweeted Sunday that Russia attacked power stations and critical infrastructure in “an act of desperation” following “immense losses and retreat in eastern Ukraine.” “Even with their terrorist tactics, they are doomed to lose this war,” Nikolenko wrote. Ukraine’s counteroffensive offers the latest cause for optimism in its efforts to expel Russian forces. When Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, his forces launched a blitz offensive with attacks across the country. Ukraine pushed Russian troops out of the capitol region of Kyiv within a few months, forcing Russia to regroup and concentrate on taking territory in the east. While Russia succeeded in taking over key eastern cities — including large parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — Ukraine’s counteroffensive has erased significant gains achieved over the spring and summer. The regional head of the Luhansk tweeted Saturday that Ukrainian troops were headed into the city of Lysychansk, a major city Russia captured over the summer. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Russia is likely losing the larger war effort because of “unclear goals.” “Russia needed to be able to defend an enormous front line and control the areas it was occupying. Not an easy task,” Lee tweeted. “It was never clear how Russia could achieve conflict termination, especially since Ukraine had a morale advantage,” he added. Mick Ryan, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a Twitter thread Sunday that if Ukrainians overtake Kupiansk, a key rail hub, that would “compromise Russian operations on their eastern front.” Ryan also said the surprise counteroffensive “introduces a larger psychological issue with Russians fighting in the east.” “The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble,” Ryan said. “Ukraine now has the initiative in this war, as well as tactical and operational momentum going into winter. The war is not over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The head of GCHQ has said 'desperate' Russian president Vladimir Putin is losing the war with Ukraine both at home and abroad and faces a potential revolt against his leadership as 'exhausted' troops run out of supplies and munitions.Sir Jeremy Fleming, the director of the UK's intelligence, cyber and security agency, is set to claim the war is badly backfiring in Putin's home country as fighting age Russians desperately try to avoid being drafted into his 'war of choice'.In a speech in London later today, Sir Jeremy will claim that despite claims of an 'inevitable Russian military victory' at the start of the war, 'it's clear that Ukraine's courageous action on the battlefield and in cyberspace is turning the tide'.The security chief will also claim that 'Russia's forces are exhausted' and it has become reliant on prisoners and inexperienced conscripts to backup depleted numbers on the frontline.It comes the day after Russia launched its biggest missile barrage on Ukraine since its illegal invasion in February, killing 11 people and injuring scores more in strikes in cities, including the capital Kyiv.A defiant Volodymyr Zelenksy branded Russia a 'terrorist state' after the attack and said it showed the Kremlin is desperate as it is 'not capable of opposing us on the battlefield'.In a video taunting his counterpart, President Zelensky said that despite the strikes Ukraine had managed to shoot down half of the missiles and drones aimed at his country, adding his people 'cannot be intimidated'.Putin claimed yesterday that the missiles were aimed at military, energy and communications networks, but Ukraine says they actually hit power plants and busy civilian areas.The attacks are thought to be retaliation for an attack on the Kerch Bridge on Saturday which linked the annexed region of Crimea to the Russian mainland. The 12-mile-long bridge was a key part of the Kremlin's supply chain, and its destruction was a slap in the face for Russian president Vladimir Putin who saw it as a pet project and a symbol of his supremacy in the region.It came the day before a meeting of the G7 where Prime Minister Liz Truss is expected to tell her fellow leaders not to waver in their support of Ukraine following the most recent attacks.It comes amid concerns that Belarus, the Kremlin's last-remaining ally in Europe, could be about to join the war to back up Putin after its dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced Russian units would combine with his own and deploy to the Ukraine border. A defiant Volodymyr Zelensky has branded Russia a 'terrorist state' after it launched missile attacks on Ukrainian cities yesterday Sir Jeremy Fleming, director of GCHQ, is set to say Putin has 'misjudged' the situation with Ukraine and is now facing discontent among his own troops Russian president Vladimir Putin is facing discontent from troops facing shortages of supplies and munitions as the war in Ukraine rages on The attacks have killed at least 11 people and left scores more injured. Pictured: Burned out cars a result of the strikes in Kyiv yesterday President Zelensky said the strikes show that Russia cannot match Ukraine on the battlefield. Pictured: A man watches smoke rise after a missile attack in Lviv yesterday 83 Russian missiles were launched at Ukraine this morning in combination with Iranian drones, striking power stations, water supplies and civilians across the country - killing at least 11 and wounding scores more Truss urges world leaders not to waver after strikes Liz Truss will urge G7 leaders to remain steadfast in support of Ukraine during crisis talks on Tuesday after Russian strikes on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities.The missile and drone barrage was launched by Moscow in retaliation for what Vladimir Putin claimed was a terrorist act carried out by Ukrainian special services on a bridge linking Russia with Crimea.The Russian attacks, which left at least 11 dead and 64 injured, prompted an international outcry.G7 leaders will hold a virtual meeting on Tuesday, with Ms Truss also expected to call for a full meeting of Nato leaders in the coming days.The video call will also be attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke to Ms Truss on Monday.She is expected to urge fellow G7 leaders to 'stay the course' in the battle against President Putin.'The overwhelming international support for Ukraine's struggle stands in stark opposition to the isolation of Russia on the international stage,' she is expected to say on Tuesday.'Their bravery in the face of the most brutal acts of violence has earned the people of Ukraine global admiration.'Nobody wants peace more than Ukraine. And for our part, we must not waver one iota in our resolve to help them win it.'G7 leaders are also likely to discuss the global energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion, amid plans to introduce a global cap on the price of Russian oil to target Mr Putin's revenues.Ukraine stepped up calls for western allies to provide anti-air and anti-missile systems in response to Monday's strikes.Kyiv was targeted for the first time in months, while Russia also hit civilian areas and energy infrastructure across the country, from Kharkiv in the east to Lviv near the Polish border.Mr Putin confirmed the strikes were retaliation for what he said was Ukraine's attack on the Kerch Bridge, a crossing between Russia and annexed Crimea that has strategic and symbolic importance. Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute defence think tank later, Sir Jeremy is set to suggest that GCHQ is aware of how badly the war is going for Putin and the Kremlin.The Telegraph reports he will say the despot has 'failed in two major military strategies already' and has 'hit the courageous reality of Ukrainian defence'.He will say: 'With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It's a high-stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement.'Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering.'We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.'Russia's forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.'He is set to add that Russians have 'started to understand that' desperation too and are becoming aware of 'just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation'. He will say: 'They're fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel.'They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. And they are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his war of choice.'His remarks come a day after President Zelenksy vowed to rebuild all that had been destroyed in the latest missile attacks.In an eight-minute-long video posted on his social media accounts, the comedian-turned-politician said his security forces were able to stop half the missiles and drones sent by Russia from hitting their targets.He said: 'Restoration work is currently underway across the country. We will restore all objects that were damaged by today's attack by Russian terrorists. It's only a matter of time.'Out of 84 Russian missiles launched against Ukraine, 43 were shot down. Out of 24 Russian drones, 13 were shot down. And even after that, every 10 minutes I receive a message about shooting Iranian 'Shaheds' down.'Therefore, follow the safety rules and pay attention to the air alarm. The danger is still there. But we are fighting. I am grateful to our Air Forces and Ground Forces units that were involved today!'Ukraine cannot be intimidated. We united even more instead. Ukraine cannot be stopped. We are convinced even more that terrorists must be neutralised. Now the occupiers are not capable of opposing us on the battlefield already, that is why they resort to this terror. Well, we'll make the battlefield even more excruciating for the enemy. And we will restore everything that was destroyed.'Believe in yourself, in Ukraine, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in our victory! Glory to Ukraine!' KYIV: A rescuer helps an injured woman at the site of shelling, which Vladimir Putin said he ordered in response to 'terrorist' attacks on Russia KYIV: A dead body lies in the streets after Russian missiles hit the Ukrainian capital for the first time in months, setting cars on fire and blowing up a park in a residential area KYIV: Firefighters extinguish a burning vehicle as a dead body lies on the street (bottom right) following Russian missile strikes that targeted civilian areas and power stations KYIV: Cars burn on the streets of the Ukrainian capital this morning after multiple missiles struck the city - the first time in months that it has been hit as Putin exacts revenge for strikes on the Kerch Bridge DNIPRO: Bodies lie covered in blankets after Russia missiles struck the city in south-central Ukraine as emergency services arrive at the scene KYIV: A business centre in the Ukrainian capital that includes offices of South Korean technology giant Samsung were partially destroyed in a missile blast this morningKYIV: An ambulance worker treats a civilian who was cut by flying shrapnel during a missile strike on the Ukrainian capitalAt least 11 people were killed and 60 wounded, Ukraine said, with eight of those deaths and 42 injuries in Kyiv alone. Rockets also hit the German consulate, but the building was empty.A mixture of missiles and Iranian-made suicide drones were used to strike the cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, northern Kharkiv and Sumy, central Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia, and even far-western Ternopil and Lviv, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Some of these cities have not been hit in months.Dramatic dash cam footage taken in Dnipro shows two of the huge missile strikes hitting a civilian area, causing fiery explosions that sent debris crashing down on cars and pedestrians nearby. Putin said he ordered strikes on 'military, communications, and energy infrastructure' after what he called 'terrorist' attacks by Ukraine - pointing to the Kerch Bridge attack but also accusing Kyiv of bombing one of its own nuclear plants, attacking gas pipes and assassinating officials and journalists.Putin said: 'Kyiv's regime, with its actions, places itself in line with international terrorist organisations. Leaving such crimes without response is impossible. In case of continuing attacks we will respond in [a] harsh manner and in line with [the] level of threats to [the] Russian Federation. Nobody should have any doubt about this.'In Russia allies of Putin have warned that this is merely the 'first episode' of Russia's revenge for the blast which crippled the Crimean bridge and 'there will be others'. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president himself, said Ukraine poses 'a constant, direct and clear' threat and that the Kremlin should aim to 'completely dismantle the political regime of Ukraine' which he described as 'Nazi'.Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the bridge attack and blames Russia for strikes on nuclear infrastructure and gas pipes. Zelensky said today's missile attacks had targeted power networks, water supplies, and civilians in an attempt to 'sow terror'. 'Russia is trying to destroy us and wipe us off the face of the earth,' he added.Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister, said Ukraine's courage would never be broken and 'that the only thing they demolish is the future of [Russia] - a future of a globally despised rogue terrorist state.'Videos and pictures from the Ukrainian capital showed burning cars and bodies in the streets as officials said rockets hit close to a well-known memorial to a famous statesman, near a children's play area in a park, and a pedestrian bridge. More footage showed an apartment block in Dnipro in flames. BBC journalist ducks for cover as Russian missiles hit Kyiv A BBC journalist was forced to take cover during a live broadcast this morning as Russian missiles slammed into Kyiv behind him.Ukraine's capital was hit by multiple strikes today – amid reports of blasts in several other cities – as Russian president Vladimir Putin's revenge for an explosion which crippled the Crimea Bridge got under way.At 8:18am local time, the BBC's correspondent in Kyiv, Hugo Bachega, was delivering a news report on a roof in front of the city's iconic golden-domed St. Michael's Monastery when the sound of a rocket could be heard roaring overhead.He stopped his report mid-sentence to glance behind him, before an explosion could be heard ringing out in the distance – forcing him to duck down, out of shot of the camera looking over the city.The footage cut back to the studio, where a concerned-looking news presenter Sally Bundock told viewers that Mr Bachega was 'for obvious reasons, taking cover at that point'. The attacks yesterday drew condemnation from across the world, and Prime Minister Liz Truss is expected to call for a full meeting of Nato leaders when she attends a meeting of the G7 tomorrow.Ms Truss is also set to say at the virtual meeting that the G7 must not waver in its support for Ukraine after the strikes.Mr Zelensky said Ukraine counts on the UK's 'leadership in consolidating international political and defence support for Ukraine, in particular regarding the protection of our skies'. He also called on western allies to provide anti-air and anti-missile systems in response to the attacks. US President Biden condemned the widespread missile attacks in Ukraine, saying they have targeted civilians and served no military purpose.'The United States strongly condemns Russia's missile strikes today across Ukraine, including in Kyiv. These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose,' Biden said in a statement.'They once again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin's illegal war on the Ukrainian people.'The United States has provided more than $16.8 billion worth of U.S. security assistance since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 and imposed a wide-ranging array of economic sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.'These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,' Biden said.'Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.'However, there are concerns that the war is set to escalate further after Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko, one of Putin's few remaining foreign allies, appeared to be laying the groundwork to join the war amid yesterday's attacks. He announced Russian units would combine with his own and deploy to the Ukraine border, accusing Kyiv of planning to attack with help from allies Poland and Lithuania.Belarus has acted as a staging ground for Russian attacks on Ukraine, but has not yet been involved in the fighting.Last night there were reports of large numbers of Russian troops being moved into its ally, with Kyiv Post journalist Jason Jay Smart quoting a source as saying: 'Russian soldiers are entering Belarus by the trainload. They're travelling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.'Belarus has said it does not plan on attacking Ukraine but will provide an 'immediate and harsh response' if Zelensky orders attacks on its territory. Vladimir Putin, speaking at a meeting of his security council today, vowed a 'severe' response to any future attacks on Russia as he confirmed firing a massive salvo of missiles at Ukraine KYIV: Ukrainians injured by flying shrapnel during Russian missile strikes on the capital this morning are patched up by military medics in a park close to where the rockets hit KYIV: A civilian with blood running down his face has his head bandaged by a medic after he was injured in a Russian missile strike on the capital this morning KYIV: A fireman helps a woman and her dogs to evacuate an office building in the capital after it was hit by Russian missiles LVIV: Smoke rises over the city in far-western Ukraine that has been largely spared the worst effects of the war after Putin unleashed a barrage of strikes in revenge for the Crimea bridge being hit ZAPORIZHZHIA: Rescuers attempt to extinguish the remains of an apartment building in southern Ukraine which was hit by a Russian missile overnightMeanwhile hardliners within Russia demanded a declaration of full war and the use of nuclear weapons. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had ruled out the atomic option on Sunday, but that will do little to dampen fears as Putin runs out of options having already annexed occupied territory and conscripted hundreds of thousands of troops. China leads calls for 'de-escalation' in wake of attacks as Poland denounces 'war crime' China has led calls for de-escalation following a huge Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities today as Putin loses his grip on the war.Mao Ning, spokesman for the foreign ministry, said Beijing 'hopes the situation will de-escalate soon'. Though he refused to directly condemn Russia, his statement will be read as a rare rebuke from a country seen as one of Moscow strongest allies.India, another country with close ties to Russia, said it was 'deeply concerned' and urged a 'return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue'. Meanwhile Poland's foreign minister Zbigniew Rau issued a stronger statement, condemning what he described as 'an act of barbarism and a war crime.''We stand behind you Ukraine,' Mr Rau tweeted.British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly condemned 'unacceptable' Russian strikes, calling it 'a demonstration of weakness by Putin, not strength.'Meanwhile President Zelensky said he had agreed with Germany's Chancellor Scholz to address a G7 meeting today to update them on what he called 'terrorist attacks' by Russia.The European Commission condemned as 'barbaric' Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday and warned Belarus against helping its ally kill civilians.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Russia's acts had 'no place in the 21st century', adding in a tweet that military support for Ukraine was on its way.'They are barbaric and cowardly attacks... targeting innocent civilians on their way to work and school in the morning traffic,' Peter Stano, a spokesperson for the European Union's executive arm told the Commission's daily news briefing.He described the strikes as a contravention of international humanitarian law and said Russia's political and military leadership would be held accountable for these and other war crimes.Jens Stoltenberg, Nato's secretary general, said he'd spoken to Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to condemn the 'horrific and indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine'. Ukrainian social media networks were flooded with videos of defiance in the wake of the attacks, as people in bomb shelters and in the Kyiv subway network sung the national anthem and other patriotic songs even as bombs fell.Summing up the mood, Ukraine's defence ministry tweeted: 'So, russkies, you really think you can compensate for your impotence on the battlefield with missile strikes on peaceful cities?'You just don't get it do you - your terrorist strikes only make us stronger. We are coming after you.'Widespread power outages were reported after the Russian salvo, with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal saying 11 'key infrastructure facilities' were hit without giving further details. Some cities were also reported to have water shortages.Within Russia, the strikes were cheered by hawks. Ramzan Kadyrov, the staunchly pro-Kremlin leader of Russia's Chechnya region who had demanded in recent days that military commanders be sacked, hailed Monday's attacks: 'Now I am 100% satisfied with how the special military operation is being conducted.''We warned you Zelensky, that Russia hasn't even got started yet, so stop complaining ... and run! Run away without looking back to the West,' he wrote.Russia has faced major setbacks on the battlefield since the start of September, with Ukrainian forces bursting through front lines and recapturing territory. Putin responded to the losses by ordering a mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of reservists, proclaiming the annexation of occupied territory and threatening repeatedly to use nuclear weapons.Russian officials had predicted retaliation of the highest order after the bridge attack. Alexander Baskin, a Russian senator, confidently suggested that the Kremlin's response would be 'adequate, conscious and possibly asymmetric', the Mirror reported.He added: 'This was a declaration of war without rules.'A red-faced Putin on Sunday blamed Ukrainian special forces for the explosion which severely damaged the key link to the Russian mainland.The livid president said the blast at Kerch Bridge was designed to destroy 'critically important civilian infrastructure'. He declared that the attack was a terrorist incident.Speaking before today's Russian attacks, Lord Dannatt, former head of the British Army, said Putin could order the indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities and could even 'go nuclear'.However, the Kremlin has played down fears from Western observers that it could use nuclear weapons, saying it is 'completely incorrect' that it was considering using them in response.Russian governors predicted today's revenge missile attacks after the destruction of the bridge on Saturday morning, which was considered to be one of Putin's pet projects.The bridge has been a symbol of Russian power in Crimea since its annexation of the peninsula in 2014.The bridge, which spans 19km from Crimea to the Russian mainland, has been used as one of the main supply routes for Russian troops since the illegal invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, allowing Putin to resupply and back up forces occupying Kherson and other southern regions of Ukraine.Its destruction in a huge blast in the early hours of Saturday morning was a huge blow to the Russian war effort and was a slap in the face for the Russian president.The 12 mile long bridge over the Kerch strait links Crimea to the Russian mainland and is a major artery for Putin's forces that control most of southern Ukraine's Kherson region and for the Russian naval port of Sevastopol.It was damaged in an explosion early Saturday morning which saw chunks of the bridge fall into the sea and a large fire break out.The incident prompted gleeful messages from Ukrainian officials - though no claim of responsibility - and video footage of the bridge appeared to show a mysterious wave crest underneath the structure moments before the blast, prompting speculation that a Ukrainian-piloted boat or drone was likely behind it.Cornered like a rat, Vladimir Putin is more dangerous than ever, warns Russia expert and author PROFESSOR MARK GALEOTTI The horrifying attacks on Ukraine yesterday – which Vladimir Putin claims were 'retaliation' for Ukraine's successful attack on the Kerch bridge – are a sign that the Russian president is, if not yet desperate, getting nearer to it.They represent a highly significant psychological shift for the beleaguered leader. He is no longer trying to win the war: now he is simply trying not to visibly lose it.Previously he could have defined victory however he wanted. But by annexing Ukrainian regions, he has upped the already high stakes. If he cedes so-called 'Russian' territory, he will become the Tsar who gave away Russian land instead of the strongman who restored the empire.And by ordering partial mobilisation on September 21 he ensured the war now touches every Russian family. Putin has made the catastrophic mistake of calling his own bluff. Previously he could have defined victory however he wanted. But by annexing Ukrainian regions, Putin has upped the already high stakesHe realises he is fighting for his political life and, as we have seen before, he is ready to sacrifice countless lives at the altar of his own ambition. In 2000 he let 118 men die on the stricken Kursk submarine rather than accept help from the West to rescue them.Now he is prepared to accept appallingly high casualties among the ill-trained conscripts he has sent to Ukraine.The Russian army has been revealed as shoddy, incompetent and ill equipped. Money that should have been spent on maintenance was siphoned off. Meanwhile the Ukrainian army, equipped with 21st century weaponry by the West, and highly skilled partly thanks to British training, has inspired awe with its indomitable spirit.Battlefield failure reflects badly on Putin personally because he has built himself up as a warrior president despite having no military experience. Some years ago, I met a group of Russian officers who, after alcohol had lubricated tongues, were scathing about Putin's military pretensions. 'I wouldn't want a virgin telling me what to do on my wedding night,' one said.Meanwhile the Ukrainian army, equipped with 21st century weaponry by the West, and highly skilled partly thanks to British training, has inspired awe with its indomitable spiritThese sentiments are becoming more widespread in Russia. Putin is coming under increasing flak from nationalists demanding stronger measures in Ukraine. He is still a rational actor, for now. But anger, self-preservation, and political pressure could alter this.There are nightmare scenarios that he has so far kept locked away. Now, cornered like the rat he once famously chased as a boy in a St Petersburg basement, he is unlocking them. The missile strikes yesterday were calculated to sow terror – Putin knows the only way he's going to win is if he breaks Ukrainian resistance, or the West's will to continue supporting Kyiv. We must brace ourselves for attacks nearer home.He could unleash his cyber warfare trolls to disrupt the banking system for example. There could be more economic mischief making, interrupting global food and energy supplies. I believe that blowing up the Nordstream gas pipe was a warning: 'Look what I can do.' Undersea internet cables are among other likely targets. And we will see more attempts to disrupt politics, such as the forthcoming American mid-term elections. Putin hasn't yet attacked supply lines bringing weapons into Ukraine for fear of Nato retaliation.Now, cornered like the rat he once famously chased as a boy in a St Petersburg basement, he is unlocking themBut there may be more covert operations in Europe – as when Russian agents blew up an arms depot near Prague in 2014.I believe that his nuclear threats are largely bluster. But if Ukrainians mount future attacks on Crimea, Putin could feel that he has nothing to lose, as losing the peninsula would finish him.As a KGB officer in East Germany in 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell, Putin brandished a pistol at crowds surging into KGB headquarters, successfully bluffing that there were more armed troops inside. Now, he is running out of bluffs, and options.And that is worrying for us all.Mark Galeotti is honorary professor at the University College London School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of 24 books on Russia, including a biography of Vladimir Putin.The day death rained from the sky: In a compelling dispatch from Ukraine, IAN BIRRELL recalls the terror unleashed by Putin's 'furious barrage' of 84 missiles, which were cruelly dropped on cities as innocent commuters rushed to workThe first blast erupted after 8am, sounding alarmingly loud and perilously close to my hotel. Then came a couple more, a long pause, then another burst of hideously familiar bangs, thumps and thuds.These were the staccato sounds of war, a series of cruel explosions in the midst of a bustling city filled with commuters on their way to work.A shocked man rushed past in the street, saying he had just passed a nearby building that had several floors missing.Gaping holes appeared in roads and roofs, a bus was blasted apart, innocent people suddenly met their deaths.For this was the Monday morning rush hour from hell as Vladimir Putin unleashed a furious barrage of missiles that rained down on cars, homes, offices and stations across Ukraine. KYIV: A medical worker runs past a car which has been blown up after a Russian attack on the capital KYIV: A rescuer helps an injured woman at the site of shelling, which Vladimir Putin said he ordered in response to 'terrorist' attacks on Russia KYIV: Cars burn after Russian military strikes on cities across Ukraine as Putin takes revenge for the Crimea bridge blast KYIV: Smoke rises over the city after a Russian missile strike on a day where Putin sought revenge Harrowing images showed emergency workers trying to escort local residents and dogs We must face fact that Nato may go to war with Russia Analysis by General Sir Richard ShirreffRussia's invasion of Ukraine has failed. As Kyiv steadily takes back swathes of land in strategic southern Kherson and in the north east, Putin is resorting to desperate measures to save himself.Following the destruction of the Kerch bridge to the Crimean peninsula – which Russia claims was Ukrainian 'terrorism' – yesterday saw Moscow launch brutal missile attacks against civilian targets, most fatally in the centre of Kyiv.Meanwhile, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev gloated that this was just 'the first episode', signalling that the intensification of attacks could be the start of a further escalation in the war by the Kremlin.Yet Putin will need a lot more manpower if he is to take on Ukraine's military counteroffensive – and it may not be as simple as he would like the West to believe.Bombardments like the ones seen this week will not bring Ukraine to its knees. They are simply not enough to change the battlefield dynamic and ensure that Russia is in the ascendant. Russia's response came following the destruction of the Kerch bridge to the Crimean peninsula Nor does Putin have the artillery war chest to escalate the war with strikes alone. Rather, his aim is to destroy civilian morale. But as this week has shown, the opposite is the case: even as Ukraine's cities suffer, the people's morale is stronger than ever.Ramping up the war will require mobilisation on an even larger scale and, even if Putin is able to force hordes of untrained men into a makeshift army, they will have scarcely any kit or weapons.In a speech on September 21, Putin announced the mobilisation of 300,000 troops – Russia's first since the Second World War.The Kremlin would draft into uniform just 'those who served in the armed forces and have certain military specialties', he declared.Even then, intelligence by Britain's Ministry of Defence found that those soldiers would be provided with only 'low-level initial training', since the majority of military commanders had already been deployed to Ukraine. So conscription on an even larger scale would be chaos. Already we are seeing waves of recruits sent to the front line in trainers, because boots (like everything else in the Russian military) are in short supply. As the Ukrainian winter sets in, many of these unlucky conscripts might freeze to death before they see battle, contributing to a collapse in morale.The toll of casualties will be immense and though we know Russians are prepared to endure pain, they are also not afraid of revolution.Following the first mobilisation, Moscow's local media has said as many as 700,000 civilians have fled. KYIV: Firefighters attempt to put out blazes as a car burns following the missile strikes, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continuesThis exodus would get worse should Putin escalate the war.He is setting the conditions to make an enemy of his entire people. Now more than ever, the West has to ensure Ukraine has all the support it needs to fight. We must double down.Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky and his citizens will not blink in the face of this onslaught, and neither should we. We have to be prepared to ramp up our support to ensure that Moscow's brutal assault is seen to fail spectacularly.Putin and his media cronies are attempting to intimidate us by threatening to use nuclear weapons.He has to understand that, if he ever resorted to this genocidal tactic, the response of the West would be unprecedented. Even Russia could not withstand such pain.Nato leaders, and in particular US President Joe Biden, have to use every available channel to make the Kremlin grasp this.In public, Mr Biden does not need to spell out his intentions. But the message has to be sent, and it has to be unmistakable.Ev | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The wreckage of a Kyiv block of flats hit by a Russian droneThe US says it agrees with Western allies that Iran's supply of explosive drones to Russia violates UN sanctions.Kyiv was struck by so-called "kamikaze" drones on Monday, unleashed by Russia but believed to be Iranian-made.The US agrees with the French and British assessment that the drones violate UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the US State Department said.That resolution, linked to Iran's nuclear accord, bars Iranian transfers of certain military technologies.Ukraine has identified the drones - or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - as Iranian Shahed-136 weapons. They are called kamikaze drones after the Japanese fighter pilots who flew suicide missions in World War Two."It is our belief that these UAVs that were transferred from Iran to Russia and used by Russia in Ukraine are among the weapons that would remain embargoed under 2231," said Vedant Patel of the state department.Iran denies supplying them to Russia, but Mr Patel said the US "exposed publicly that Russia has received drones from Iran, that this was part of Russia's plan to import hundreds of Iranian UAVs of various types".He added that there was "extensive proof" of Russia's use of them in Ukraine.Critical infrastructure was hit on Monday in Ukraine's Kyiv, Dnipro and Sumy regions, with electricity cut in hundreds of towns and villages, the Kyiv government said.At least eight people were killed - four in Kyiv and four in Sumy. The US said it would "hold [Russia} accountable for its war crimes."Mr Patel said the deepening alliance between Russia and Iran was something the whole world should see as a threat. Russia and Iran have provided key military support for President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war."Anyone doing business with Iran, that can have any link to UAVs or ballistic missile developments or the flow of arms from Iran to Russia, should be very careful and do their due diligence. The US will not hesitate to use sanctions," Mr Patel warned.How is Russia using 'kamikaze' drones in Ukraine?Russia dive-bombs Kyiv with 'kamikaze' dronesMonday's attack came a week after Russia fired dozens of missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, many of them targeting energy infrastructure. Western analysts believe the Iranian weapon is helping Russia to keep up long-range attacks despite a shortage of precision missiles.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says the EU is also "gathering evidence" on the Iranian drones and is ready to act - implying a possible intensification of sanctions.Negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran are currently stalled. Under the deal with Western powers, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions.What are 'kamikaze drones'?Believed to include an Iranian-supplied weapon called the Shahed-136These drones loiter above a target before attackingPacked with explosives which detonate upon impact, destroying the droneOften sent in waves and difficult to spot on radarThe US said Iran planned to send hundreds to Russia, costing just $20,000 (£17,800) eachUkraine has also used 'kamikaze drones' - including the US-made Switchblade model | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution Thursday that calls for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and demands the withdrawal of its forces, sending a strong message on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion that Moscow’s aggression must end.
The 141-7 vote with 32 abstentions was slightly below the highest vote for the five previous resolutions approved by the 193-member world body since Russia sent troops and tanks across the border into its smaller neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022.
The General Assembly has become the most important U.N. body dealing with Ukraine because the Security Council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security, is paralyzed by Russia’s veto power. Its resolutions are not legally binding, unlike Security Council resolutions, but serve as a barometer of world opinion.
Foreign ministers and diplomats from more than 75 countries addressed the assembly during two days of debate, with many urging support for the resolution that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity, a basic principle of the U.N. Charter that all countries must subscribe to when they join the world organization.
READ MORE: Support for Ukraine aid softens in U.S. public, poll says
The war has killed tens of thousands on both sides and has reduced entire cities to ruins and its impact has been felt worldwide in higher food and fuel costs and rising inflation.
In his own appeal, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said Ukrainians deserve “not only our compassion, but also our support and solidarity.”
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock asked countries that claim “that by arming Ukraine, we are pouring oil into the fire” why Western nations would do that.
“The West didn’t want or choose the war and would rather focus all its energy and money on fixing schools, fighting the climate crisis or strengthening social justice,” she told the assembly. “But the truth is: If Russia stops fighting, this war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.”
Venezuela’s deputy ambassador addressed the council on behalf of 16 countries that either voted against or abstained on almost all of five previous resolutions on Ukraine: Belarus, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Laos, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, St. Vincent, Syria, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
While other countries focused on Russia’s actions, Deputy Ambassador Joaquín Pérez Ayestarán said Wednesday that all countries without exception “must stringently comply with the United Nations Charter.”
READ MORE: Are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
He said the countries in his group were against what he called divisive action in the General Assembly, and for “a spirit of compromise.”
China’s deputy U.N. ambassador Dai Bing told the assembly Thursday: “We support Russia and Ukraine in moving towards each other, resuming direct dialogue as soon as possible, bringing their legitimate concerns into the negotiation, setting out feasible options, and giving a chance to an early end of the crisis and the rebuilding of peace.”
“The international community should make joint efforts to facilitate peace talks.”
But European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters the aggressor and the victim can’t be put on equal terms, and Ukraine cannot be asked not to defend itself.
Unhappily, he said, “Russia has not sent any positive signal of any minimum willingness to work for a peace.”
He said “that’s reality” and everyone who went to the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin will continue with his so-called special military operation “until he gets the military objective that he has been unable to get.”
Associated Press journalists Christopher Bodeen in Beijing, Vineeta Deepak in New Delhi and Cara Anna in Nairobi, Kenya, contributed.
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For full coverage of the crisis in Ukraine, visit Flashpoint Ukraine.
The latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine. All times EDT.
2:15 pm: VOA’s Patsy Widakuswara says White House confirms reports that Iran gave drones to Russia. 11:08 a.m.: A Ukrainian official has accused Russia of staging new hostilities near the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant in order to prevent U.N. inspectors from visiting the Russian-occupied site. 9:55 a.m.: Ukraine’s presidential office reported heavy fighting Tuesday across the Kherson region and said Ukrainian forces have destroyed all large bridges across the Dnieper river that are vital to supplying Russian troops, according to The Associated Press.
Observers noted a surge in fighting across Kherson amid speculation that Ukraine was launching a counter-offensive to regain control of the territory from Russian forces.
Russia’s defense ministry said Tuesday its troops had repelled the Ukrainian attack and inflicted significant casualties. AP and other news agencies said they could not independently verify either side’s claims.
9:10 a.m.: A WFP ship carrying Ukrainian grain has docked in the Horn of Africa, reports the head of the U.N. agency. 8:22 a.m.: CNN reports that a team of 14 experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency has arrived in Ukraine’s capital, ahead of their scheduled visit to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine later this week.
The mission, led by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, comes amid continued shelling around the plant and growing fears of a potential nuclear accident.
7:17 a.m: Ukraine has exported about 1.5 million tons of food under the U.N. and Turkish-brokered deal to unblock the country’s seaports, according to Reuters.
Ukraine’s food exports dropped sharply after Russia invaded the country in February and blockaded ports on the Black Sea. The cutoff drove up global food prices and contributed to shortages in parts of Africa and the Middle East.
Russia and Ukraine signed the deal July 22 to allow the exports to resume. Since then, more than 60 cargo ships carrying food have departed from Ukrainian ports, says the country’s infrastructure ministry.
Another six ships with 183,000 tons of agricultural products left on Tuesday.
5 a.m. Ukraine’s presidential office reported heavy fighting Tuesday in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, an area occupied by Russian forces where Ukraine says it has launched a counteroffensive to try to retake territory.
In his nightly address Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed Ukrainian forces would take back their territory. He said Ukraine would chase Russia’s forces “to the border.”
“If they want to survive — it’s time for the Russian military to run away. Go home,” he said.
3:10 a.m. The Guardian reports that at least four are dead and four are wounded after Russian shelling in Kharkiv, according to the regional governor.
2:40 a.m.: European Union defense ministers might agree in principle on Tuesday on setting up an EU military training mission for Ukraine, the bloc’s foreign policy chief said.
Several EU countries have been training Ukrainian troops for a while individually, mainly enabling them to operate weapons Western nations are delivering to Ukraine to help its fight against Russia's invasion.
“The situation on the ground continues to be very bad,” foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said as he arrived at a meeting of EU defense ministers in Prague.
“We will continue supporting Ukraine with initiatives such as this training mission which ministers will discuss,” he said, adding: “A general, overall political agreement (on a joint training mission) is what I think we have to get today ... I hope we will have a political green light for this mission.”
It is not clear yet where a broader EU training program could be based and what mandate it might have, and Borrell provided no details.
Later in the day, EU foreign ministers, also meeting in Prague, may agree tightening the issuance of visas for Russians and start debating a wider ban on tourist visas, though EU officials said there was no agreement on that.
“There is war in Europe and not far from here. Russia’s brutal aggression will be the most important topic of our meeting today,” Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova said.
2 a.m.: Russian-installed authorities in the Ukrainian city of Enerhodar accused Ukrainian troops on Tuesday of once again shelling the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Reuters reported citing Russia’s TASS news agency.
The city authorities said two shells exploded near a spent fuel storage building at the plant, the agency added.
Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly accused each other of attacking Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, set to be visited this week by a mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
1:55 a.m.: The Ukrainian armed forces heightened the rate of artillery fire across southern Ukraine, and long-range precision strikes continued to disrupt Russian resupply, Britain’s defense ministry said on Tuesday.
Russia has made efforts since the beginning of August to reinforce its troops on the western bank of the Dnipro River around Kherson, the ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin.
Ukrainian forces were shelling ferries that Russia was using to supply a pocket of territory on the west bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, Oleksiy Arestovych, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy, said earlier. 12:30 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy has urged Russian troops to flee from an offensive launched by his forces near the southern city of Kherson saying Ukraine’s military were taking back their territory, though Russia said the assault had failed, Reuters reported.
Ukraine’s assault comes after weeks of a stalemate in a war that has killed thousands, displaced millions, destroyed cities and caused a global energy and food crisis amid unprecedented economic sanctions.
It has also fueled worries of a radiation disaster being triggered by shelling near the south Ukraine Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Zelenskiyy, in his nightly address late on Monday, vowed that Ukrainian troops would chase the Russian army “to the border.”
“If they want to survive – it's time for the Russian military to run away. Go home,” he said. “Ukraine is taking back its own,” Zelenskiyy said.
12:15 a.m.: Despite the ongoing war against Russia, many Ukrainian schools will reopen on September 1, The Kyiv Independent reported.
“As the start of the school year approaches, Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine and intense battles unfold in the east and south,” the news site reported. “Though a sense of normalcy has returned in cities further away from the front line, like Kyiv and Lviv, indiscriminate Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have remained a reality across the country.”
Not all Ukrainian children will be returning to class, notes the site.
“Nearly two-thirds of children in Ukraine have had to flee their homes, according to UNICEF...” the report said. “And at least 379 children have been killed by Russia’s war, according to Ukraine’s General Prosecutor.”
Some information in this report came from Reuters. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
World Dec 13, 2022 12:38 PM EST President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment that the Russian leader’s war has gone badly wrong.
Putin typically uses the year-end ritual to polish his image, answering a wide range of questions on domestic and foreign policy to demonstrate his grip on details and give the semblance of openness even though the event is tightly stage-managed.
But this year, with his troops on the back foot in Ukraine, it could be impossible to avoid uncomfortable questions about the Russian military’s blunders even at a highly choreographed event. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Monday that Putin wouldn’t hold the news conference this month without explaining why.
READ MORE: Ukraine says special military units have entered Kherson, Russian troops fully withdraw from city
“Although questions are almost certainly usually vetted in advance, the cancellation is likely due to increasing concerns about the prevalence of anti-war feeling in Russia,” the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote in a commentary on Twitter.
“Kremlin officials are almost certainly extremely sensitive about the possibility that any event attended by Putin could be hijacked by unsanctioned discussion about the ‘special military operation,’” it said, using Moscow’s term for the war.
Some of his previous performances lasted for more than 4 1/2 hours, during which he has sometimes faced some pointed questions, but used them to mock the West or denigrate his domestic opponents.
Putin also has canceled another annual fixture this year, a televised call-in show in which he takes questions from the public to nurture his father-of-the-nation image.
And he has so far failed to deliver the annual televised state-of-the-nation address to parliament, a constitutional obligation. No date has been set for Putin’s address.
The Kremlin has muzzled any criticism of its invasion of Ukraine from the liberal anti-war camp, shutting independent media outlets and criminalizing the spread of any information that differs from the official view — including calling the campaign a war. But it has faced an increasingly vocal criticism from Russian hardliners, who have denounced the president as weak and indecisive and called for ramping up strikes on Ukraine.
READ MORE: Russia rejects pullout from Ukraine as condition for talks
Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said in a video commentary that the decision not to hold the news conference was likely because Putin “has nothing to say from the point of view of strategy.”
Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, claiming Moscow was forced to “demilitarize” the country in the face of NATO’s refusal to offer Russia guarantees that Ukraine wouldn’t be invited to join the alliance. Ukraine and much of the world denounced the Russian attack on its neighbor as an unprovoked act of aggression.
Putin and his officials hoped to rout the Ukrainian military in a few days, but a fierce Ukrainian resistance — bolstered by Western weapons — quickly derailed those plans. After a botched attempt to quickly capture the Ukrainian capital, the Russian troops pulled back from areas around Kyiv in March.
In September, Ukraine won back large swaths of land in the northeastern Kharkiv region, and last month it reclaimed control of the strategic southern port city of Kherson.
A mobilization of 300,000 reservists that Putin ordered in September so far has failed to reverse battlefield fortunes for Russia. The mobilization order has prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad to avoid recruitment, and those who have been called up reported glaring shortages of key equipment and supplies.
In a rare acknowledgement last week that the war in Ukraine is taking longer than he anticipated, Putin acknowledged that wrapping up the campaign could be a “lengthy process.” At the same time, he continued to claim that it was going according to plan and would achieve its goals.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political expert, noted that Putin’s decision to ditch the news conference and his failure so far to deliver the state-of-the-nation address reflected his hesitancy about the future course of action.
“Shall we forge ahead and defeat the enemy?” he wrote, reflecting hardliners’ calls for ramping up missile strikes on Ukraine. “Or on the contrary, shall we prepare for a difficult but necessary compromise?” Left: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the coordination council to ensure the needs of Russia's Armed Forces, via video link in Moscow, Russia October 25, 2022. Sputnik/Alexei Babushkin/Kremlin via REUTERS | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
SummaryRussian-installed official confirms Ukraine advance in southSays Kyiv's forces near Dudchany, 40km from former frontlineNo official Ukrainian confirmation of advance in southRussian military bloggers say troops fall back dozens of kmUkraine buoyed by weekend capture of Lyman in eastKYIV, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Ukrainian troops recaptured villages along the west bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine on Monday in a major new breakthrough, opening a second big front that is forcing Moscow to abandon ground just days after claiming to annex it.The advance in Kherson province was Ukraine's biggest in the south of the country since the war began, and follows similar breakthroughs in the east that have turned the tide of the war in recent weeks.The Russian-installed head of the administration in occupied parts of Ukraine's Kherson province confirmed that Ukrainian troops had captured a number of settlements along the river, pushing as far as the vicinity of the village of Dudchany. This would represent a startling advance of around 40 km (25 miles) in a single day.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"The information is tense, let's put it that way, because, yes there were indeed breakthroughs," Vladimir Saldo told Russian state television."There's a settlement called Dudchany, right along the Dnipro River, and right there, in that region, there was a (Ukrainian) breakthrough. There are settlements that are occupied by Ukrainian forces," he said.UKRAINE KEEPS MUMKyiv has so far maintained almost complete silence about the situation in Kherson.In one of the rare images apparently confirming the advance, Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior ministry, posted a photo of Ukrainian soldiers posing with their flag draping a golden statue of an angel. He said it was the village of Mikhailivka, which would represent an advance of around 20 km (12 miles).The advance in the south seems to mirror those in the east, where Ukrainian forces suddenly and swiftly seized territory mainly to gain control of crucial Russian supply lines.Ukrainian service member dismount a cannon from a captured Russian armoured personnel carrier, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Izium in Kharkiv region, Ukraine October 2, 2022. REUTERS/Vladyslav MusiienkoJust hours after a concert on Moscow's Red Square on Friday where Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be Russian territory forever, Ukraine recaptured Lyman, the main Russian bastion in the north of Donetsk province. That opens the way for it to advance deep into Luhansk province.Putin has been responding to Russia's failures on the battlefield over the past month by escalating: proclaiming the annexation of occupied territory, calling up tens of thousands of men as reservists and threatening nuclear retaliation.In the south, Russia has thousands of troops - perhaps as many as 25,000 - on the west bank of the Dnipro, where it sent a large contingent to halt a counter-attack Ukraine announced there in August.Ukraine has long said its aim in the south was to cut off Russia's remaining supply lines across the river and trap the Russians on the opposite bank.It has already destroyed the main bridges, forcing Russian forces to use makeshift crossings. A substantial advance along the river could bring those remaining crossings into artillery range.Russian military bloggers described a Ukrainian tank advance through dozens of kilometers of territory along the bank of the Dnipro river."When this many Russian channels are sounding the alarm, it usually means they're in trouble," Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute think-tank, wrote on Twitter.MOBILISATION CHAOSThe reports of Ukraine's battlefield advances have come amid reports of chaos in a Russian mobilisation ordered less than two weeks ago by Putin, which has seen tens of thousands of Russian men suddenly called up into the military and tens of thousands of others fleeing abroad.Mikhail Degtyarev, governor of the Khabarovsk region in Russia's Far East, said on Monday around half of the men called up there had been found unfit for duty and sent back home. He fired the region's military commissar.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWriting by Peter Graff
Editing by Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a live-fire artillery drill simulating an attack on a South Korean airfield and called for his troops to be ready to respond to the enemies’ “frantic war preparation moves” — apparently referring to the recent series of military drills between the United States and South Korea.
The North Korean state media report Friday came a day after South Korea’s military detected the North firing at least one short-range ballistic missile toward the sea from a site near the western coastal city of Nampo. The South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff was assessing whether more missiles may have been launched simultaneously.
The United States has recently sent long-range B-1B and B-52 bombers for several rounds of joint aerial drills with South Korean warplanes. The allies are also preparing this month for their biggest combined field training exercise in years to counter the growing threat of Kim’s growing nuclear arsenal. North Korea views regular U.S.-South Korean military exercises as invasion rehearsals.
Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said Kim urged his troops to be prepared to “overwhelmingly respond to and contain” the military action of the North’s enemies, which he said were proceeding with “all sorts of more frantic war preparation moves.”
He said frontline units should sharpen their capabilities to carry out their two main “strategic missions, that is, first to deter war and second to take the initiative in war.”
South Korea’s Unification Ministry later Friday urged North Korea to stop raising tensions with “reckless nuclear and missile programs and military provocations.” Vice spokesperson Lee Hyo-jung told reporters that North Korea must focus instead on caring for people's livelihoods and take a path toward building peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The KCNA report did not specify what types of weapons were involved in Thursday’s exercise or how many rockets were fired. Some of the North’s newer short-range weapons targeting South Korea includes large-sized multiple rocket launchers that experts say blur the boundaries between artillery and ballistic missile systems.
North Korea describes some of its more advanced short-range systems as tactical weapons, which implies an intent to arm them with lower-yield battlefield nuclear weapons.
Experts say the North with the wording is communicating a threat to proactively use those weapons during conventional warfare to blunt the stronger conventional forces of South Korea and the United States, which keeps about 28,000 troops in South Korea to help deter potential aggression from North Korea.
Kim’s comments were in line with an escalatory nuclear doctrine the North set into law last year, which authorizes preemptive nuclear strikes in situations where it may perceive its leadership as under threat, including conventional clashes.
Photos published by North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper showed at least six rockets being fired from launch vehicles lined up in an unspecified coastal forest area.
Kim watched the firings from an observation post along with military officials and his daughter, believed to be named Kim Ju Ae and around 10 years old.
She has appeared at several events tied to his military since first being showcased at an ICBM test launch in November, and analysts believe the events and elevated descriptions of her in state media are meant to show the world he has no intention to voluntarily surrender his nuclear weapons, which he apparently sees as the strongest guarantee of his survival and the extension of his family’s dynastic rule.
Coming off a record year in missile testing, North Korea has conducted additional weapons demonstrations in 2023. Experts say North Korea with its heightened testing activity and threats is trying to claim a dual ability to conduct nuclear strikes against South Korea and the U.S. mainland.
Kim’s campaign is aimed at forcing the United States into accepting the North as a nuclear power and negotiating badly needed economic concessions from a position of strength, analysts say. Diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea has stalled since 2019.
The South Korean and U.S. militaries will conduct computer-simulated command post training March 13-23 and will resume their largest springtime field exercises, which were last held in 2018. The allies' regular drills were canceled or scaled back to support diplomacy or because of the COVID-19 pandemic but they renewed them after the diplomacy collapsed and North Korea's threats and weapons testing escalated.
On Tuesday, Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader’s powerful sister and one of Pyongyang’s top foreign policy officials, warned that her country is ready if necessary to take “quick, overwhelming action” in the face of the allies’ expanded drills.
In previous statements, she threatened to turn the Pacific into North Korea’s firing range and repeatedly implied that the North might test-fire an ICBM toward those waters on a standard ballistic trajectory, which would be seen as one of its most provocative weapons demonstrations yet.
All of North Korea’s ICBM tests since 2017 have been conducted on a high angle to avoid the territories of neighbors.
__
Associated Press writer Hyung-jin Kim contributed to this report. ___
Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — Some of the lines in President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address that reference China are undergoing edits following the recent controversy over the surveillance balloon that made its way across the U.S. last week, according to three people familiar with the speech.
Parts of the draft remarks for Tuesday night’s speech, which has long included a section on China, could be tweaked after the balloon captured the attention of Americans and drew the ire of Republicans, who have leveled criticism against both the president and his administration for its handling of the situation, the sources said.
The discussion among Biden and his aides is how much sharper his rhetoric on China might be, the sources said, with some administration officials making the case that dialing it up too much could be counterproductive as the president continues to navigate the battered relationship between Washington and Beijing.
One White House official said, “We’ve been clear we will defend American values and advance our interests while maintaining open lines of communication with China.”
Before the White House admitted publicly that it had been monitoring the surveillance balloon for days since it entered U.S. airspace, Biden’s speech featured familiar language he’s used before on taking a tough, domestic political stance against China, the sources said. Now, they said, it’s changing to convey that his administration won’t tolerate such violations by China, possibly noting that Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed his planned trip to Beijing because of the balloon incident. The speech, the sources said, will not include announcing a substantive plan for retaliation against China.
A second White House official said “the president’s foreign policy vision and agenda has always been a part of this speech,” including the importance of “managing our strategic competition with China.”
“Of course, the president’s remarks always take into account what’s happening in the world and how we meet the moment we’re in,” the official said. “But you will hear the president speak to his continued and successful effort to reassert America’s leadership around the world.”
Biden has often framed his economic agenda as not only about supporting America’s middle class, but also positioning the country to better compete globally and regain an edge over China. “Folks, we risk losing the edge as a nation, and China and the rest of the world are catching up,” Biden said last week at an infrastructure event in New York.
At the same time, his administration has increasingly focused on China as a growing military threat as well, particularly how it’s building up to compete with the U.S. on that front and saber rattling on Taiwan.
One of the sources familiar with the changes being made to Biden’s address said that while the speech is not expected to include specific new policy pronouncements in response to the surveillance balloon, the speech process is still ongoing. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
By Jorge Liboreiro • Updated: 13/10/2022 - 19:53 A Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine would trigger "such a powerful answer" from the West that the Russian army would be "annihilated," said Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief.His comments come in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly combative rhetoric. After signing a partial mobilisation decree to boost the Russian army ranks on 21 September, Putin warned NATO that his country had "various means of destruction" at its disposal to defend its "territorial integrity.""It's not a bluff," Putin said.In blunt remarks on Thursday, Borrell directly replied to the Russian leader's threats."There is the nuclear threat, and Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing," Borrell said during a European Diplomatic Academy event in Bruges."It has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the member states, and the United States and NATO are not bluffing neither." "And any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer -- not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side -- that the Russian army will be annihilated, and Putin should not be bluffing," he said.Borrell spoke of a "serious moment of history" and painted a grim picture of profound uncertainty and instability for global politics as a result of Russia's invasion.The diplomat said the current rules-based system was being "challenged like never before"."We are definitely out of the Cold War and the post-Cold War. The post-Cold War has ended with the Ukrainian war, with the Russian aggression against Ukraine," he told the audience."This war is changing a lot of things, and certainly it is changing the European Union. This war will create a different European Union, from different perspectives."Borrell also described Europe as a "garden" of political freedom and economic prosperity but added the rest of the world was mostly a "jungle.""The jungle could invade the garden. The gardeners should take care of it, but they will not protect the garden by building walls. A nice small garden surrounded by high walls in order to prevent the jungle from coming in is not going to be a solution. Because the jungle has a strong growth capacity, and the wall will never be high enough in order to protect the garden," he said."The gardeners have to go to the jungle. Europeans have to be much more engaged with the rest of the world."Asked about Borrell's comments on nuclear annihilation, a European Commission spokesperson said a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine would be a "total game-changer" and that EU countries were preparing for any possible scenario.'I should be the best-informed guy in the world'This is not the first time this week that Borrell delivers a surprisingly candid message.On Monday, the diplomat declared the EU's era of dependencies, including on cheap Russian gas, to be over and said the bloc's soft power was dwindling."The United States took care of our security [...] China and Russia provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there," he told the annual conference of EU ambassadors.Borrell spoke of a world under a "messy multipolarity" structured around US-China competition which co-exists within a broader divide between democracies and authoritarian regimes."On our side, there are a lot of authoritarian regimes. We cannot say 'we are the democracies,' and the ones which follow us are also democracies -- that is not true," he said.The EU's foreign policy chief confessed that European countries did not believe Russia was going to launch the full-scale invasion, despite repeated warnings from US officials."We did not believe that this was going to happen, and we did not foresee that Ukraine was ready to resist as fiercely and as successfully as they are doing," he said.In what was arguably the most shocking moment of the speech, Borrell publicly berated the EU ambassadors present at the event for not reporting fast enough about developments in their respective countries."Sometimes, I knew more of what was happening somewhere by reading the newspapers than reading your reports. Your reports come sometimes too late," he told the ambassadors."Having all of you around the world, I should be the best informed person in the world -- at least as much as any Foreign Affairs Minister. I am 'Foreign Affairs Minister of Europe'. Behave as you would behave if you were an embassy."Speaking at the same conference, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the ambassadors for doing "excellent work" on the ground. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
October 11, 2022 05:30 AM Russian President Vladimir Putin's indiscriminate missile strikes on Ukraine present a new challenge for President Joe Biden 7 1/2 months into the war. Days after comparing Putin's nuclear threats to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and the biblical Armageddon, Russia's strikes on Ukraine in retribution for an attack on the Russian-Crimean peninsula Kerch Bridge escalates the conflict as the prospect of an energy crisis this winter tests the resolve of Biden's allies. WHITE HOUSE BRACES FOR LATEST HUNTER BIDEN FALLOUT NEAR ELECTIONS Unless Biden reacts to Russia's missile strikes with "real determination," he risks Putin "escalating further, potentially even to nuclear weapons," according to former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment Marshall Billingslea. "We urgently need to deliver the more sophisticated weaponry that Ukraine has been asking for that, to date, the Biden administration has refused to provide," Billingslea said, naming long-range HIMAR artillery system ammunition as an example. "The second facet of the response needs to be designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and an immediate clamp down on the energy trade with the Russians." Billingslea agreed Biden should restrict Ukraine from using U.S. weapons and equipment against "Russia proper." But the former Trump administration alumnus and Vandenberg Coalition advisory board member underscored that "legitimate military targets in Crimea are not in Russia." He also described Biden's sanctions against Russia as being "far short of any type of maximum economic pressure" in contrast to President Donald Trump's Iran or Venezuela measures, citing Biden's Russian energy carve-outs. Cato Institute defense senior fellow Eric Gomez encouraged Biden to reevaluate his "war aims" and to communicate better what concessions Putin can exchange for sanction relief after the strongman launched more than 80 Russian missiles and 20 Iran drones on Ukraine, hitting playgrounds and roads during rush-hour traffic in Kyiv to Lviv. Gomez contended Putin is making it more difficult for himself to negotiate a peace settlement after he mobilized 300,000 army reservists with training and experience and annexed contested territory in Ukraine's east and south. Simultaneously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has little incentive to speak with his Russian counterpart after the missile strikes, which killed 14 people and injured almost 100, in what is a fight for "national survival," though battlefield conditions could change. "I sympathize with my friends in the restraint movement, who talk a lot about wanting a diplomatic end to the conflict," Gomez said. "I think that won't happen unless both sides don't really see an advantage to keep fighting, but it's clear that both sides want to." Putin has proven he is not prepared to take off-ramps created for him with the missile strikes, added Dan Hamilton, a Brookings Institution foreign policy nonresident fellow. "It's not an off-ramp, but it is a different way to engage, [and that] is for the U.S. to quietly discuss [with] the Russians whether they would like to resume some discussions about nuclear arms control," he said from Germany. "Putin had said something earlier about limiting our intermediate-range forces. The controls on those expired under the INF Treaty." For Hamilton, Tuesday's emergency G-7 meeting, in which Zelensky is also expected to participate, will address infrastructure security concerns after the sabotage of the energy Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, as well as Germany's railway system, in addition to Monday's missile strikes, more sanctions, and a possible Russian oil and natural gas price cap. "We've entered this age of disruption, in which many of the arteries that connect our societies and keep our societies moving are susceptible to this type of disruptive shutdowns and even military assaults," he said. "We're in a multi-front war. ... Putin is weaponizing food. He's weaponized people, refugees." Billingslea criticized the price cap proposal as "performative art" because it is "unenforceable" and China and India are "absolutely" not committed to it. It also provides "a pretext" for the EU to continue purchasing Russian energy amid dependence and supply issues. The G-7 meeting coincides with this week's gathering of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a U.S.-led organization of 50-odd countries, is also convening at Ramstein Air Base in Germany the day before. "The United States strongly condemns Russia's missile strikes today across Ukraine," Biden wrote in a statement on Monday. "These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose. They once again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Biden urged Democratic donors last week not to underestimate Putin's rhetoric, repeating he is "not joking" about the Russian leader deploying tactical nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. “I don't think there's any such thing as an ability to easily lose a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon," Biden said at the time. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
"Ukraine and Donbas have become a symbol of total lies," Putin says, accusing the West of withdrawing from "fundamental agreements" and giving "hypocritical statements" as well as expanding Nato and "covering us with an umbrella".
"I want to repeat: it is them who are culpable for the war, and we are using force to stop it," Putin says to great applause.
Post update
Putin continues by claiming Russia tried to settle the conflict in the Donbas region by peaceful means.
He says the West's commitment to peace turned out to be "fraud", and a "cruel lie" and claims Kyiv was trying to gather biological and nuclear weapons.
"We were doing everything possible to solve this problem
peacefully, negotiating a peaceful way out of this difficult
conflict, but behind our backs a very different scenario was
being prepared.
"They [the West] were just playing for time, closing their eyes to political assassinations,
mistreatment of believers," he said.
Putin discusses so-called 'special operation'
Putin continues by refering to the launch of his so-called "special operation".
He repeats the unfounded assertion that Russia was facing a Nazi threat, along with "constant threats and hatred" from the Kyiv government.
Ukraine was waiting for Russia to come to their assistance, he claims.
Needless to say, Ukraine's government would dismiss all of this.
'Each of us is bound by huge responsibility' - Putin
Putin begins his address, saying he will be "speaking during a complicated and frontier time for our country during a time of drastic changes in our world."
He says that "historic events will determine the future of our country... each of us is bound by a huge responsibility."
Putin starts his speech
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Members of the Federal Assembly and the rest of those in attendance rose as President Putin took the stage.
The speech has now started.
A crowded hall awaits
Defence minister Sergei Shoigu, former president and PM Dmitry Medvedev, finance minister Andrei Siluanov, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, Patriarch Kirill and many others are gathered in Moscow's crowded Gostiny Dvor hall. Russia's top brass is also in attendance.
Members of the foreign media - considered "foreign agents" - were not invited this year.
The speech is about to start, you can watch by clicking play at the top of the page.
BBCCopyright: BBC
Belarus claims Ukrainian military grouped near border
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor
Minutes before Putin begins speaking, Belarus and Russian news agencies are quoting a top Belarus defence official warning that a significant Ukrainian army grouping has moved to the immediate vicinity of the border.
Valery Revenko, who's head of the defence ministry's international military cooperation department, is quoted by Belta news agency in Minsk as telling a briefing that Ukrainian intelligence is using reconnaissance groups and drones at a high level.
Ukraine is obviously monitoring the possibility that Russia will revive last February's failed invasion from Belarus so using reconnaissance in the area makes sense. But if Minsk is suggesting that Ukraine has its own offensive intentions, that would be frankly absurd.
Remember last week Belarus's authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko told us that he was ready to wage war alongside Russia - "but only if someone - even a single soldier - enters our territory from there (Ukraine) with weapons to kill my people".
Putin to speak shortly - and focus on war
Vladimir Putin's State of the Nation speech is due to start shortly. His speeches are typically lengthy affairs, and this morning his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today's would last about an hour.
Peskov also said that much of the speech would be devoted to the "assessment of the causes and inevitability" of the war in Ukraine.
This will likely mean strong words against what Putin sees as the West and Nato's expansionism into Eastern Europe, and perceived aggression towards Russia. Putin gave a speech before launching his invasion a year ago in which he rewrote Ukrainian history, claiming it had never really been a state. We might hear more of that.
Russia 'paid close attention' to Biden Kyiv visit
A Russian-state owned news agency says the Kremlin kept a close eye on US President Joe Biden's visit to Kyiv yesterday.
But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the visit as "nothing extraordinary".
Peskov says Russian president Vladimir Putin won't be watching Biden's address in Poland later today.
China concerned war could 'spiral out of control'
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi is visiting Russia on the last leg of his Europe tour, just days ahead of the one-year mark of the Ukraine war and the Kremlin has said he may meet President Putin.
The country's foreign minister, Qin Gang, recently expressed concerns over the escalating Ukraine crisis that could "spiral out of control" as he described China's "constructive role" to ease the crisis. Qin also called on certain countries to stop "fuelling the
fire" - a likely reference to the US.
The US recently said it is concerned Beijing may be considering supplying weapons to
Russia on top of the "non-lethal support" is has already provided.
Russia's equipment losses mounting
David Brown
BBC News Visual Journalism Team
Russian forces have lost thousands of items of equipment in Ukraine since the invasion of 24 February last year, according to the latest figures.
It's believed they include more than 1,700 tanks and 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured by Ukrainian forces.
.Copyright: .
The figures come from experts at Oryx, who only include losses for which there is photographic evidence, so the real numbers in some categories are likely to be higher.
Documented Ukrainian losses, including 467 tanks and 490 infantry fighting vehicles, are much lower.
Analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimate that the Russian army has lost 38% of its pre-war tank fleet.
The high losses have forced Russian forces to deploy their older Cold War tanks as replacements, says the IISS.
Watch: A year since Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk
As we wait to hear from Vladimir Putin, it’s worth remembering the significance of today’s date.
On 21 February last year, the Russian leader announced his decision to recognise the independence of two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine: the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
The move preceeded the invasion of Ukraine just three days later. This clip shows the moment Putin made that announcement.
How the war has unfolded in the last year
Let's remind ourselves of the key developments in the last 12 months and where we are at now.
.Copyright: .
Russia’s invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, before dawn on 24 February 2022.
Within a few weeks Russian troops were in control of large areas of Ukraine. They had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv and controlled much of the north-east of the country around Sumy.
Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, surrounding the port city of Mariupol.
By October the picture had changed dramatically. Having failed to take Kyiv, Russia had withdrawn from the north and Ukraine had its first major success, pushing Russia back from Kharkiv, and counter-attacking around Kherson.
One year since the invasion, Ukraine is in control of Kherson and fighting is concentrated in the east, with the heaviest around the town of Bakhmut.
The view from Moscow on Biden's surprise Kyiv visit
Will Vernon
reporting from Moscow
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
There has been no official Moscow reaction so far to
President Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv yesterday.
But, state-controlled TV
here has been reporting the trip, with headlines such as “Zelensky is paid a
visit by ‘his master’”.
It repeats the now-familiar false narrative of Kremlin
propaganda: that Ukraine is ruled by a puppet government controlled by the
West.
Last night, on ‘60 Minutes,’ one of the main political talk shows on the
Rossiya-1 channel, host Olga Skabeyeva said “Zelensky nearly died from happiness”
when Biden arrived.
She accused the Ukrainian president of engineering a
“circus” in Kyiv by turning on air raid sirens despite there
being no strikes.
There is now speculation about whether President Putin will
refer to Biden’s Kyiv visit in his address today.
Whether he does or not, it is
likely that the US president’s commitments to “unwavering support” for Ukraine
came as a blow to those in the Kremlin who are hoping that Western backing for
Kyiv will soon begin to waver.
EU needs to boost weapons orders - Estonia PM
EPACopyright: EPA
Estonia's prime minister is calling for a greater military support to Kyiv.
Kaja Kallas told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme the European Union should order weapons for Ukraine in the same way it procured Covid vaccines.
"While the Russian military industry is working in three shifts, the European defensive industry has not really boosted its production."
Kallas says the demand is there, but adds the defence industry says it doesn't have the orders to match it.
She says that the process needs to be faster as every day Russia is firing artillery shells to the equivalent of the monthly European production of the same weapon.
Over in Ukraine, it's another day of diplomatic visits. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is on her way to Kyiv to meet President Zelensky.
There have been rumours that Italy might be ready to send Ukraine fighter jets - although any decision of this sort will have to be coordinated with the rest of the EU.
Meloni is also likely going to want to reassure him that Italy stands by Ukraine against Russia's invasion despite recent controversial declarations by the leaders of two parties in of her government coalition.
One of them - former PM Silvio Berlusconi - blamed Zelensky for "attacking the two autonomous republics in eastern Ukraine" and said he judged the Ukrainian president "very negatively". Berlusconi also recently said he had received a gift of 20 bottles of vodka from Putin.
In an interview with Italian media last week, Zelensky gave a tongue-in-cheek reply: "I heard what Berlusconi said... What can I send him? Some vodka? We have good vodka. If a crate of it is enough to bring him over to my side, then maybe this issue can be fixed."
EU approval of further Russian sanctions imminent, says foreign policy chief
Further EU sanctions against Russia should be approved by the end of the week at the latest, according to the bloc’s foreign policy chief.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Monday, Joseph Borrell said the measures would target four Russian banks, as well as imports and exports. He told reporters it would be "approved in the next hours" or at least before Friday, according to Reuters.
It comes after foreign ministers met in Brussels to discuss the bloc's latest sanctions package against Russia.
The 10th package of sanctions, which still require the unanimous support of all EU states, would target rubber imports and exports including heavy vehicles.
Analysis
Biden's message for Americans as support scrutinised
Sarah Smith
North America editor reporting from Washington D.C.
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
In his speech later this afternoon President Biden will describe the war in Ukraine as a battle against democracy and autocracy and declare that after a year of fighting, it is democracy that has the upper hand.
The president's surprise visit to Kyiv yesterday, appearing alongside president Volodymyr Zelensky, was designed to be a vivid physicial demonstration of his commitment to continue supporting Ukraine, as he often says, for as long as it takes
But, some politicians on the further extremes on both the left and the right in America are now expressing doubts about how long the US can afford to continue supplying Ukraine defence forces.
Polls suggest public support is also declining.
So, the message President Biden wants to deliver on this trip is aimed as much at an American audience at home as it is for the people of Poland and Ukraine.
Biden and Duda to discuss increasing Polish Nato presence
As we've been reporting - US President Biden is in Poland today as part of a planned visit where he will meet his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda.
We have been hearing from one of President Duda's advisers who has been telling the media that Biden and Duda will discuss reinforcing
Poland's security and increasing the Nato presence wthin the
country.
Marcin
Przydacz also told the broadcaster TVN 24 a small group of Polish officials were aware of Biden's visit to Kyiv yesterday.
A look at what’s to come for Biden today
US President Joe Biden is visiting Poland to mark the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - and his itinerary is jam-packed.
To kick things off, Biden will be welcomed with a ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw by Polish President Andrzej Duda around 12:20 GMT. The two leaders will hold talks on support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Then he will meet with leaders of the Bucharest Nine - a group consisting of members of Nato's eastern flank, which includes Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania.
We’re also expecting to hear a speech from Biden around 16:30 GMT. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Japan's ruling parties are expected to agree Friday that the country should pledge to acquire a "counterstrike capability" to address the rapid deterioration of the regional security environment.
The Liberal Democratic Party has advocated obtaining an enemy base strike capability, while its junior coalition partner Komeito, known as a pacifist party, had been wary that such a move would constitute a major shift in Japan's exclusively self-defense-oriented policy.
The Maritime Self-Defense Force's Aegis-equipped Maya destroyer launches a new Standard Missile-3 Block 2A interceptor on Nov. 16, 2022, in the Pacific Ocean. (Photo courtesy of the Maritime Self-Defense Force)(Kyodo) The capability, which would allow Japan to fire upon and disable enemy missiles before they are launched from foreign territory, remains controversial among legal experts, given that Japan has pursued pacifism under its war-renouncing Constitution since 1947.
Obtaining a counterstrike capability is expected to be declared in the National Security Strategy, the government's long-term security and foreign policy guidelines, scheduled to be updated by the end of this year.
Following Diet approval after the government declares that Japan has been attacked or an attack on a friendly nation represents a threat to Japan's survival, the counterstrike capability could be activated "as a bare minimum measure," according to sources close to the matter.
The two parties have confirmed that using such a capability would be part of exercising the right of self-defense and could not be regarded as a pre-emptive attack, the sources said.
On Thursday, Komeito approved the planned counterstrike capability at a party meeting, after focusing discussions with the LDP on issues such as the conditions for utilizing such a capability and the potential targets for a counterattack.
Last week, Keiichi Ishii, secretary general of Komeito, pointed to the need for a counterstrike capability in consideration of the growing security threats posed by nuclear-armed North Korea and China.
Since the start of this year, North Korea has fired ballistic missiles at an unprecedented pace in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, amid concern that the country may carry out its seventh nuclear test, the first since September 2017.
China has also been intensifying its maritime activities in the Indo-Pacific region, while the country under President Xi Jinping's leadership has been trying to bolster its military clout in an apparent bid to challenge the regional influence of the United States.
The Japanese government under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to revise the National Security Strategy for the first time since it was adopted in 2013, along with two other key defense-related documents.
Members of the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito meet to discuss national security strategy in Tokyo on Dec. 2, 2022. (Kyodo) Related coverage:
Japan mulls buying up to 500 U.S. Tomahawk missiles until FY 2027
Japan eyes using enemy base strike capability with U.S.
Japan's counterstrike capability proposal to ban preemptive attacks | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukrainian soldiers on August 10, 2022.Bulent Kilic | AFP | Getty ImagesWhen Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014 little was done to stop it or actively help Ukraine get its territory back, a salient point given Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor that begun earlier this year.But now, Ukraine appears to be finally in a position to fight back on the peninsula with a spate of recent incidents in which Russian military positions and infrastructure in Crimea have been damaged.These, it's believed, are likely to be a part of Ukraine's tentative counteroffensive in the south as it seeks to dislodge the occupying forces and eventually reclaim its territory, once and for all.The latest incidents in Crimea took place on Tuesday when a fire caused multiple explosions in a Russian ammunition depot near Dzhankoi in the north of the peninsula. A nearby railway and electricity sub-station were also damaged as well as residential buildings, Russia's defense ministry said.The incident led to several thousand civilians in the vicinity being evacuated. although there were no serious casualties. Separately, Russian media also reported that smoke was rising from near Gvardeyskoye Airbase in the center of the Crimea, leading to huge queues forming at the nearby Simferopol Railway Station as residents tried to flee the region.Russia's Defense Ministry later said the incidents were "a result of sabotage" but gave few other details as to the cause. Ukraine, meanwhile, has not openly admitted being responsible for the blasts but several officials have hinted that Kyiv could have had a hand in the incidents.Andriy Yermak, a top official in Ukraine and advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said wryly on Twitter Tuesday that the latest incident was a part of the "demilitarization" of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and that "Crimea is Ukraine." Fellow Ukrainian official and advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, echoed the sentiment, saying the incidents were "demilitarization in action."Moscow has repeatedly said the aim of its "special military operation," as it calls the invasion, is the "demilitarization" of Ukraine.The press office of the Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment on the latest incidents in Crimea, but one Russian analyst said the incidents show Crimea is becoming a powder keg."It is quite obvious that Crimea is turning from a safe region into a dangerous one, and this is a direct consequence of the fact that the war has dragged on," Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow and chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNBC Wednesday, adding that this was "another of Putin's strategic miscalculations."The incidents this week are by no means the first of this type. Last week, a series of blasts were reported at Russia's Saky military base on the Crimean coast, destroying a number of Russian warplanes in the process.Again, Ukraine did not confirm or deny responsibility for that attack, and several others that have taken place in recent weeks, but analysts say they're part of a counteroffensive launched in southern Ukraine over the summer, with the aid of Western-donated weapons, to regain lost territory like Crimea and Kherson just to the north on the mainland.Kherson was the first city to fall into Russian hands after the unprovoked invasion began on Feb. 24. But Ukraine has begun a counteroffensive to retake the city, attacking bridges into and around the area in recent weeks in a bid to disrupt Russian supply routes to its troops."Attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnipro River," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, said in their latest update Tuesday."Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine including those in western Kherson Oblast [province]. Ukraine's targeting of Russian ground lines of communication and logistic and support assets in Crimea is consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive effort that has also targeted bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian logistical support elements in occupied Kherson Oblast," they said.The net effects of this campaign will likely be to disrupt the ability of Russia to sustain mechanized forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River, the ISW analysts added.Incidents unnerving RussiaThere is every sign that acts of "sabotage" or resistance and counterattack, as Ukraine might label it, are set to continue, and the increasing frequency of such events is likely to concern Russia which has various military bases in Crimea and uses Sevastopol as the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet.Zelenskyy on Tuesday warned people in Crimea and other heavily occupied areas of Ukraine not to go near Russian military installations as Ukraine appears to be stepping up its counteroffensive."Every day and every night we see new reports of explosions on territory that is temporarily taken by the occupiers. And I am asking now all our people in Crimea, in other regions in the south of Ukraine, in occupied areas of Donbas and Kharkiv region to be very careful," Zelenskyy said on the Telegram messaging app during an evening address.A woman walks past huge placards bearing images of Russian President Vladimir Putin and reading "Russia does not start wars, it ends them"and "We will aim for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine" in the city center of Simferopol, Crimea, on March 4, 2022.Stringer | AFP | Getty ImagesRussia has occupied Crimea since 2014, annexing the territory from Ukraine soon after a popular uprising in Kyiv ousted the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.Russia initially denied any involvement in the invasion of Crimea in March 2014 with what locals called "little green men" — essentially Russian soldiers in unmarked green uniforms but who bore Russian arms and who spoke in Russian accents. President Vladimir Putin insisted they were local "self-defense groups" although a month later he confirmed that the Russian military had been deployed to Crimea to, as he put it, stand behind "Crimea's defense forces."As Russian forces were annexing Crimea, a referendum was held asking residents if they wanted to join Russia with 97% backing it. Although the result was widely disputed and seen as rigged, it meant Russia could use the vote as an excuse, saying it was "defending" Crimean civilians' rights to self-determination.The U.S., Europe and its allies imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion and the country was ousted from the then-Group of Eight (now the G-7). But, arguably, little else was done by the international community to take Crimea back for Ukraine, a country in political flux at the time, and Russia adapted to the sanctions.For its part, Russia has insisted that annexing Crimea was an act of "reunification" and that it is protecting ethnic Russian citizens there. In Crimea, as well as in pro-Russian, separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, Russia has pursued a policy of aggressive "Russification" too, however, handing out Russian passports to locals, suppressing the Ukrainian language and culture and introducing the ruble, to name a few measures.Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on March 18, 2022.Mikhail Klimentyev | Afp | Getty ImagesIn hindsight, the lack of a unified, strong response against Russia, and its subsequent support of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, allowed it to position itself for the recent full-scale invasion.Meanwhile in Crimea, eight years on from the annexation, Russia has ensconced itself in the peninsula which is a popular holiday destination for Russians.Moscow has developed its military hold on the region too with sea and air bases there, and has spent billions of rubles on cementing links to mainland Russia with infrastructure projects such as the 12-mile Crimean Bridge (also known as the "Kerch Bridge" as it crosses the Kerch Strait) that cost $3.7 billion to build and opened in 2018.A general view shows a road-and-rail bridge, which is constructed to connect the Russian mainland with the Crimean peninsula, at sunrise in the Kerch Strait, Crimea November 26, 2018.REUTERS | Pavel RebrovAgainst this backdrop, the increasing frequency of incidents like those Tuesday are likely to unnerve Russia, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defence."Dzhankoi and Gvardeyskoye [where the incidents took place Tuesday] are home to two of the most important Russian military airfields in Crimea. Dzhankoi is also a key road and rail junction that plays an important role in supplying Russia's operations in southern Ukraine," the ministry noted."The cause of these incidents and the extent of the damage is not yet clear but Russian commanders will highly likely be increasingly concerned with the apparent deterioration in security across Crimea, which functions as rear base area for the occupation."The 'fog of war'It's likely that Ukraine will not openly take responsibility, or the credit rather, for such incidents in Crimea just yet, however."Ukraine's reason for avoiding direct discussions of responsibility and opaqueness is because it has more to gain from the fog of war and the uncertainty, in this case, than it does from moving the debate on to exactly how it has carried out these attacks and its aims in doing so," Max Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Wednesday."It's been pretty clear from Ukraine that we've seen attempts to try to destabilize the support for the Russian occupation in Crimea by carrying out these attacks and making Crimea seen as an unsafe holiday destination for Russians. And we have seen Ukrainian officials, a number of military officials, indicate that they consider the Kherch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea ... as a potential target. But they don't want to put the focus on how they would do this, which weapons they're using to do it," he said.Hess said that while Kyiv's recent, avowed counteroffensive in and around Kherson was designed to weaken Russia's ability to hold territory to the north of the Dnipro River, we still haven't seen much territorial progress for Ukraine.Ukrainian infantrymen train on May 9 in an area north of Kherson Oblast, most of which is controlled by Russia.John Moore | Getty Images News | Getty Images"Despite having been speaking of this potential counter offensive for a month, we haven't seen major Ukrainian advances on any of the Kherson-Mykolaiv-Dnipropetrovsk fronts," he said."The extent to which they're still able to do so remains skeptical in some ways," he said. "It seems to be that their strategy is to make it is impossible for Russia to hold, and then have a siege rather than a counter offensive, to try to convince them to give up control of the territory of Kherson and Mykolaiv, north of the Dnipro river."As for Crimea, Hess believed that while it was it was a long-term goal to liberate Crimea, it was premature to see that as a near-term possibility."It's way, way too early to be talking about that. But of course, that is a long-term Ukrainian goal and sovereign Ukrainian territory that they're right to try to ultimately aim to liberate." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
December 16, 2022 10:14 AM The National Archives is looking to release hundreds of pages of internal records from the Obama administration relating to Hunter Biden's relationship with Ukraine — something President Joe Biden could put a stop to if he invokes executive privilege. However, the Biden administration has declined to comment if it will invoke the presidential policy, according to Insider. The records would include almost 300 full or partial emails between Hunter Biden and Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, which date back to 2014, when Joe Biden served as vice president under President Barack Obama. The National Archives wrote a letter to the White House in November, letting it know that it had received a Freedom of Information Act request under the search word "Burisma." FBI BELIEVES ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHARGE HUNTER BIDEN FOR TAX FRAUD AND LYING ON FEDERAL GUN FORM The FOIA request was filed by America First Legal, a nonprofit group founded by Stephen Miller, an adviser to former President Donald Trump. Trump invoked the Presidential Records Act to keep the archives from releasing records on his administration to the House select Jan. 6 committee, which, ultimately, Joe Biden declined. The letter states that several emails are related to press inquiries after Hunter Biden joined the company's board in 2014 with no experience in the energy sector. However, the National Archives said it would withhold the release of 22 emails with no explanation provided. Under the Presidential Records Act, the president has 60 days to assert claims of privilege before the emails can be released. If so, the emails will remain sealed until January 2029. The younger Biden's dealings have been the focal point for several Republican politicians. Hunter Biden was allegedly paid $50,000 a month to sit on the board, which political officials believe was a method to influence U.S. foreign policy. Hunter Biden worked under Mykola Zlochevsky, a Ukrainian oligarch and Burisma owner who is widely seen as corrupt. Zlochevsky had $23 million frozen by British authorities in the time between the hiring of Hunter Biden and Devon Archer, the younger Biden's associate. Burisma appeared to pay a total of $1.5 million to both Hunter Biden and Archer during their time on the board. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER FBI whistleblowers claim they have "voluminous evidence" against Hunter Biden's connection to the Ukrainian business, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who previously released whistleblower claims alleging that the bureau "wrongly labeled" evidence on Hunter Biden as disinformation. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Republican divisions on foreign policy and aid could become more consequential if Republicans win control of the House in the midterm elections, creating a rockier road for future humanitarian or military assistance to Ukraine. The GOP is widely projected to win control of the lower chamber in this year’s elections, which would give the “America First” wing of the party that is resistant to foreign intervention a larger voice and potentially more power. Uncertainty remains about the course of the war and how much more aid Ukraine will request from the U.S., but many expect the issue to come up again at some point. Republicans have been broadly supportive of Ukraine, but questions over everything from how the aid is being used to whether nonmilitary aid is warranted have spanned from the party’s fringes to the conservative mainstream. “Unless Russia decides to pack up and head home, I suspect that there are going to be continued requests,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, said. “We all want to help. At the same time, you know, we’ve got problems in our own country that remain unresolved, and we have no idea what the administration’s plan is. Like, what’s the end state? Where are we headed?” Perry said. “Are our tax dollars being used wisely?” In May, 11 Republican senators and 57 House Republicans — a quarter of the House Republican Conference — opposed a $40 billion security supplemental for Ukraine. The loudest criticism to Ukrainian funding has come from the outspoken right flank of the conference. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) tweeted last month that President Biden “needs to understand that we are the USA not the US-ATM,” and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has been against “every ounce” of spending to Ukraine. In a break from some past hawkish tendencies, Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation, came out against the $40 billion May package. “Ukraine Aid Package Puts America Last,” the Heritage Action statement’s title read, arguing that the spending was “reckless,” “without any accountability” and diverted funds away from other priorities like the U.S.-Mexico border and crime. Garrett Bess, vice president of Heritage Action, said that the group’s position is not necessarily that the U.S. should not send any aid. “I mean, when does this end?” Bess said. “If Ukraine and Russia keep up a conflict for two, three, four years, are we going to be expected to send $50 billion a quarter to keep the conflict going?” Asked about Heritage Action’s opposition to the aid package in a press conference last month, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) noted a sense among Republicans of wanting more accountability. “I think what you’re seeing is there are a lot of members that want to see more accountability in the Department of Defense and more of a focus on the threats that are out there,” Scalise said. He did not commit to keeping the same level of financial support for Ukraine in the future. Concerned Veterans of America, which is part of the network funded by billionaire conservative donor Charles Koch, has also been wary of U.S. aid to Ukraine. A September poll sponsored by the group found that 54 percent of Americans said the U.S. should only provide aid to Ukraine if Europeans match that support. John Byrnes, deputy director of Concerned Veterans for America, criticized the quality of care from the Department of Veterans Affairs and said his group would “welcome a new Congress with a majority that would focus on America’s veterans, rather than on supporting a war abroad.” Polls find majorities of Americans supportive of the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with an Oct. 4-5 poll from Ipsos finding 66 percent support for providing weapons and 59 percent support for providing financial aid. But a Pew Research survey last month found that support among Republicans for providing U.S. support to Ukraine has diminished. In March, 9 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning adults said the U.S. was providing too much support to Ukraine. That shot up to 32 percent in September. Varying critiques of aid have come across the House GOP spectrum. Another $12.3 billion in aid was tacked on to a stopgap government funding bill that passed in September, and all but 10 House Republicans opposed it mostly due to being locked out of negotiations and because the funding only lasted until December. The Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House, critiqued the Ukraine funding supplemental portion by saying that most of the $12.2 billion to Ukraine was for humanitarian aid rather than military aid. Heritage Action’s position surprised Luke Coffey, a senior fellow analyzing national security at the conservative Hudson Institute who had then been at the Heritage Foundation for a decade and was arguing in favor of funding to Ukraine. “I think that there’s a very small but vocal segment of the Republican Party who take these more isolationist, restraint views on U.S. engagement in the world,” Coffey said. “We have to be a little more sophisticated in our approach to foreign policy.” “One of the ironies here is that Trump was the first president to finally give Javelin weapons to Ukraine. And in the case of Georgia, another country that Russia partially occupies, he gave Stingers and Javelin missiles,” Coffey said “He did something in eight months that Obama wouldn’t do in eight years.” A Georgian friend, Coffey said, remarked at the time that Trump’s willingness to give weapons to partners rather than aiming to engage with adversaries like Iran and Russia was an expression of America First foreign policy. “Those who are calling for us to just narrowly give military support failed to see the bigger picture of the crisis in Ukraine,” Coffey said. “We have to want Ukraine to win more than we hope Russia will lose.” House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) has also called on the Biden administration to “finally provide longer-range artillery” to Ukraine and for allies to transfer additional systems to Ukraine. Asked if he expected House GOP leadership in a majority to adequately address concerns about keeping any aid accountable, Perry said: “They better. … That’s why it’s called leadership.” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in a statement that there is “strategic value” for the U.S. to stand with allies, but that it should do so “responsibly” and have a “robust debate” on U.S. strategy in the country. “It’s indefensible for the Biden administration to ask for never-ending billion-dollar blank checks to Ukraine, while the American people struggle with sky-high inflation, and the national debt surpasses $31 trillion. Too many of my colleagues — even on my side of the aisle — are willing to green-light more unpaid-for spending without rigorous oversight or accountability so they can sport a blue and yellow lapel pin,” Roy said. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Biden rallies the West to not get tired of winning
“The stakes are eternal,” Biden boomed in Warsaw as the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears.
WARSAW — Eleven months ago, President Joe Biden came to Poland to denounce a war he’d hoped to avoid. On Tuesday, he returned having fully embraced the mantle of wartime leader, boasting of a U.S.-led Western response that blunted Vladimir Putin’s invasion and slowed the march of global authoritarianism.
Having stood in sunny and free Kyiv the day before — nearly a year after the war began — Biden in Warsaw was steeled for a fight he intends to see through while in the Oval Office. He may not be commanding troops in this battle, but he is acting like democracy’s civilian general, commanding an alliance strung together by geography, fear and necessity.
“NATO is more united and more unified than ever before,” Biden said. “The democracies of the world have grown stronger, not weaker. The autocrats of the world have grown weaker, not stronger.”
The feeling behind those words reflected the long-held views of a devout transatlanticist, a man who was 3 years old when World War II ended. Biden grew up in an era of American military and economic domination bolstered by partners across the Atlantic. The mission to safeguard Europe from tyranny since the 1940s has expanded worldwide, leading the United States to defend the “rules-based international order” it created against those opposed to free markets and free societies.
A fortification of that order, maintained through the sanctity of alliances, is central to the president’s entire foreign policy. And the war in Ukraine for Biden is a test of whether the U.S. is, in some respects, the nation of yesteryear. Can it stand for something, inspire and lead? Can it still be a force for good? Can it prolong global democracy’s flickering flame?
The president held that the answers to those questions were yes, yes and yes.
“When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested. The whole world faced a test for the ages,” Biden said. “Europe was being tested. America was being tested. NATO was being tested. All democracies were being tested. And the questions we face are as simple as they are profound: Would we respond, or would we look the other way?”
“One year later, we know the answer: We did respond. We would be strong, we would be united, and the world would not look the other way.”
To celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance, Biden also announced the United States will host the NATO summit next year.
Hours before the speech, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Biden wanted to stand in Europe to affirm “what is at stake here is more than just the success and survival of the nation of Ukraine, but the rules-based international order, the fundamental principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity and the fundamental values of independence, democracy, freedom that matter so much to everyday American people.”
“The president has believed passionately in the themes … for decades,” Sullivan said, applying them now at what Biden terms “an inflection point in history.”
Biden’s allies say he struck the right notes both in Ukraine and Poland. “The president’s address makes clear to Russia and other aggressors watching how steep the price will be for those who threaten freedom and democracy,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who chairs the Foreign Relations Committee’s Europe panel.
Despite the somber reason for his visit to Kyiv — the one-year anniversary of Russian troops, tanks, warplanes and missiles crossing into Ukraine — Biden displayed a joyous bounce as he wandered through the city. He stood alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even as air-raid sirens blared throughout the capital, a reminder that Russia still holds 20 percent of Ukraine and threatens nearly all of it with its weapons, terrorizing civilians daily. It was the first time a modern-day president traveled to a warzone the U.S. military didn’t control.
Biden’s lifted spirit drew from the symbolism of his lengthy and clandestine journey on “Rail Force One.” He was there as a physical representation of America’s continued commitment to Ukraine — “as long as it takes,” is his mantra — and rebuke to Putin. The Kremlin boss has unleashed war criminals, mercenaries and conscripts to unseat Zekenskyy, the same man with whom Biden was coordinating, congratulating and consoling.
The images beamed around the world were meant to deliver one message: These were two presidents on America’s Presidents’ Day showing a thug what true leadership looked like. It was, after all, only a year ago when Biden, also standing outside Warsaw’s Royal Palace, said that Putin “cannot remain in power.”
This year, with the palace garden surroundings lit up in blue and yellow and in front of a roaring crowd waving American, Polish and Ukrainian flags, Biden reported that “Kyiv stands strong, it stands proud and it stands free.”
But with the pageantry ending, and the drama receding, what remains are questions about how Biden can repeat his performance in the year ahead. The fear from within and outside the administration is that a weakened Russia could still deal Biden a setback as the brutal war of attrition drags on.
Putin, for all his struggles, hit similar notes of confidence, including during his State of the Union speech Tuesday which he moved up to pre-rebut Biden’s Warsaw address. “Step by step, we will accomplish all our tasks carefully and consistently,” he said before falsely accusing the West of starting the war. “We are using force to stop it.” He spiked tensions further by suspending the last-remaining nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia, the same one he and Biden extended for five years in 2021.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Putin’s decision “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.”
With no end in sight, and no peace deal Ukraine could likely accept, Biden needs European allies to hold strong for months, maybe years. Officials from this continent say they were lucky the winter season was relatively mild, allowing Europeans to withstand high energy prices and cold snaps. But another 365 days of shivers and thinning wallets could see continental voters turn against their governments.
One of Biden’s audiences was back home: the bipartisan congressional coalition supporting Kyiv has largely held, though isolationist voices in the GOP have grown louder. And, as Biden’s likely reelection bid approaches, polls suggest Americans are cooling on sending money to Kyiv. Biden also aimed, subtly, at Beijing. He suggested China should not increase its aid to Moscow, again framing the generational struggle between democracies and autocracies.
But it is unclear if the West’s arsenal of democracy can keep up with demand. At the Munich Security Conference, held days before Biden’s trip, European leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that their weapons-production lines weren’t humming along as desired for Ukraine’s and their own security. Macron implored Europe “to invest more in defense. If we want peace, we need the means to achieve it.”
Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), part of the U.S. congressional delegation to the conference, worried about America’s ability to fill at least part of that gap. “The burn rate is very unsustainable,” he said in an interview there, as Ukrainian troops “are firing more munitions than we can produce. We can’t create, in the short term, a larger pipeline. The industrial base cannot do it.”
“The way we fix that is we actually train them on fire and maneuver and advanced tactics that use substantially less ammunition to achieve the same or greater result,” the House Armed Services Committee member and veteran said.
This week also featured some slight cracks in American and European rhetoric regarding Russia. The Biden administration repeats that it seeks Moscow’s “strategic defeat,” depleting it of the resources to sustain a modern economy, an equipped military and system of kleptocracy that keeps Putin in control. But in an interview with a French newspaper this week, Macron called on the West to help Ukraine win the war but not “crush” Russia. That followed his comments last year that Moscow should not be “humiliated over its invasion.”
Tending to America’s vast and varied allies is paramount for Biden, though there have been missteps along the way. Some allies raged then, and still do now, about his withdrawal from Afghanistan, and France was irate after being cut out of a nuclear submarine deal with Australia.
But what the president showcased in Poland was lockstep support for the transatlantic bond that undergirds his defense of Ukrainian and global democracy from behind the Resolute Desk.
“The stakes are eternal,” said Biden. “The choice between chaos and stability, between building and destroying, between hope and fear, between democracy that lifts up the human spirit and the brutal hand of the dictator that crushes it.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The US will relax COVID-19 testing requirements for travelers coming from China as soon as Friday, according to a report.
US officials told The Washington Post on Tuesday that the decision to lift negative COVID-test requirements was made because of declining cases of the virus in China.
The officials said the shift was driven by public health priorities and not foreign policy concerns, according to the outlet.
The new rule was reportedly being finalized Tuesday, but national security and health officials will notify US airlines, Chinese diplomats and others before publicly announcing the change.
In January, the US and several other countries implemented negative test requirements for air travelers from China older than 2 amid a surge of coronavirus cases in the communist nation after Beijing abandoned its stringent zero-COVID policies.
The US also hoped the testing rule would pressure the Chinese government to be more transparent with its COVID-19 data after releasing implausible numbers of cases and deaths — criticized by health authorities as too low — in the run-up to ending its lockdown restrictions.
US officials acknowledge that China is still likely undercounting deaths and cases, but believe the data points to a decline in infections, as most of the Chinese population was likely infected during the recent wave.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will still continue its voluntary genomic sequencing program at airports for travelers from China, according to Reuters.
The Genomic Surveillance Program assists health authorities detect early new variants and was expanded in December.
Tensions between China and the US have been elevated since last month’s spy balloon incident — which saw surveillance craft reportedly launched from China’s Hainan Island hover over sensitive US nuclear weapons sites and cross the US mainland before being shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4.
US officials say China has rebuffed calls from Washington since the shoot-down.
In a rare rebuke of US policy, Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday accused the US of leading “containment, encirclement and suppression” efforts against the communist power.
“Western countries — led by the US — have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” Xi said in a speech to China’s top political advisory body.
Feathers have also been ruffled in Beijing over reports that top US agencies, including the Department of Energy and the FBI, have concluded that COVID-19 originated from a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan researching bat coronaviruses.
Chinese officials have denied the so-called “lab leak theory,” blasting it as defamatory. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Another Cuban mole in the US government 01:27 - Source: CNN CNN — Ana Montes, an American citizen convicted of spying for Cuba, has been released from US federal prison in Fort Worth, Texas, according to Federal Bureau of Prison online records. Cuba recruited Montes for spying in the 1980s and she was employed by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency as an analyst from 1985-2001. She was eventually promoted to be the DIA’s top Cuba analyst. The FBI and DIA began investigating her in the fall of 2000 but, in response to the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, she had access to plans for US attacks against Afghanistan and the Taliban. On September 21, 2001, Montes was arrested in Washington, DC, and charged with conspiracy to deliver defense information to Cuba. In early 2002, she was sentenced to 25 years in prison after pleading guilty to espionage. The judge who sentenced Montes ordered her to be supervised on release from prison for five years. Regarding Montes’ release, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio slammed Montes for betraying the US and assisting Cuba’s communist regime. “Americans should remember Ana Belén Montes for who she really is, despite the fact that she has served her time in prison. If we forget this spy’s story, it will surely repeat itself,” Rubio said in a statement released on Saturday. Ana Montes, now 65, was known as the Queen of Cuba, an American who for over a decade and a half handed over so many US military secrets to Havana that experts say the US may never know the full extent of the damage. In 1984, Montes was working a clerical job at the Justice Department in Washington and studying for a master’s degree at Johns Hopkins University. She often found herself railing against President Ronald Reagan’s support for rebels fighting pro-communist regimes in Central America. “She felt that the US didn’t have the right to impose its will on other countries,” said FBI Special Agent Pete Lapp, the man who eventually led the investigation against Montes, and ultimately arrested her. Her anger about US foreign policy complicated her relationships and drew the attention of Cubans who enticed her to turn her back on friends, family and her own country. Someone at Johns Hopkins noticed Montes’ passionate views about Cuba and soon she was introduced to recruiters, and agreed to help the Cuban cause. At about the same time, Montes applied for a job at the Defense Intelligence Agency, where workers handle US military secrets on a daily basis. When she started there in 1985, the FBI says she was already a fully recruited Cuban spy. One night in 1996, Montes was called to consult at the Pentagon during an ongoing international incident, but she broke protocol by failing to remain on duty until dismissed. This raised suspicion. Four years later, DIA counterintelligence officer Scott Carmichael heard the FBI was looking for a mole – an unidentified spy inside the DIA who was working for Cuba. The suspect had traveled to the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, at a specific time. When he looked up a list of DIA employees who visited Gitmo during those dates, a familiar name popped up – Ana Montes. “The moment I saw her name, I knew,” Carmichael said. After that, Carmichael and FBI agent Lapp teamed up to prove that the DIA’s Queen of Cuba was really a spy. Thanks to “very sensitive” intelligence, it was known that the unidentified DIA mole had bought a specific brand, make and model of computer at a specific time in 1996 from an unknown store in Alexandria, Virginia. Lapp was able to find the store’s original record that linked that computer to Montes, confirming their beliefs. CNN’s Thom Patterson contributed reporting. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
September 14, 2022 12:51 PM The Department of the Treasury announced sanctions against 10 individuals and two entities associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for their role in malicious cyberattacks. This group of Iran-based hackers has been compromising networks in the United States and abroad since at least 2020, the Treasury Department said in a statement announcing the sanctions on Wednesday morning. They have allegedly launched “extensive campaigns” against organizations and specific officials across the globe, but particularly in the U.S. and Middle East. The hackers are known for exploiting software vulnerabilities to carry out their illicit activities, in addition to accessing computers without authorization, extracting data, and other malicious activities. UKRAINE SAYS IT SHOT DOWN RUSSIAN-ACQUIRED IRANIAN DRONE IN KHARKIV “Ransomware actors and other cybercriminals, regardless of their national origin or base of operations, have targeted businesses and critical infrastructure across the board—directly threatening the physical security and economy of the United States and other nations,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “We will continue to take coordination action with our global partners to combat and deter ransomware threats, including those associated with the IRGC.” These hackers launched a cyberattack against a municipality in New Jersey in February 2021. During the attack, they used their access to create unauthorized accounts and used a proxy to establish long-term remote access to a particular domain. They launched a different attack in March and April of that year, in which they were able to encrypt a network and hold the decryption for ransom. “Concurrently with these designations, the Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program, which is administered by the Diplomatic Security Service, is highlighting three individuals under its reward offer for information on foreign malicious cyber activity against U.S. critical infrastructure,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “Under this reward offer, the Department is offering up to $10 million for information leading to the identification or location of any person who, while acting at the direction or under the control of a foreign government, participates in malicious cyber activities against U.S. critical infrastructure in violation of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act.” Earlier this week, Blinken acknowledged that U.S. and Iranian negotiations on reentry into the 2015 Iranian Nuclear Agreement have stalled, even after there appeared to be some breakthroughs last month. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER “Iran’s response to the proposal put forward by the European Union is clearly a step backward and makes prospects for an agreement in the near term, I would say, unlikely,” he explained. “Iran seems either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to reach an agreement, and they continue to try to introduce extraneous issues to the negotiation that make an agreement less likely.” It's unclear how long both sides will continue to pursue reentry into the deal, though Biden has staked significant foreign policy resources into reentering the deal then-President Donald Trump withdrew from four years ago. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The Biden administration is losing the short game when it comes to U.S. national security, and President Biden’s upcoming July trip to the Middle East is yet another case study in how the White House keeps misfiring and setting the president up for failure. It would be one thing if the administration’s missteps were merely unforced errors, but they are not. They appear to be systemic in nature — they begin with Chief of Staff Ron Klain and extend to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Biden may have hoped to be rid of “forever wars” such as Afghanistan, but we live in a world dominated by a hot war in Ukraine, ongoing U.S. military involvement in Syria, “mounting tensions” between the U.S. and China in the Pacific, and Iran and North Korea emerging as potential nuclear threats. Given this evolving reality, Klain’s glaring lack of substantive national security or foreign policy experience, either at a cabinet or command level, is proving problematic. It is his job, as gatekeeper to the Oval Office, to balance the competing exigencies of Biden’s domestic and international teams and agendas. Now, 17 months into Biden’s presidency, it is clear that Klain, Sullivan, Blinken and Austin are incapable of prioritizing, let alone apolitically balancing the two — with U.S. national security (and Biden) paying an unacceptable price. Consider Israel, for example. Jerusalem no doubt was viscerally an enticing presidential international stage — particularly for an unpopular president reeling from 40-year high inflation, skyrocketing fuel prices, a stalled domestic agenda, and some Democratic insiders arguing that an aging Biden should not run again in 2024. Fair enough — it is a tried-and-true tactic. Fuel up Air Force One to the hilt and fly the president as far away as possible from Washington and, fingers crossed, hope it revives his flagging approval ratings, now down to 36 percent. But to what intended strategic purpose? Preventing a nuclear Iran? Pushing a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia involving the Straits of Tiran? Or, simply — as it is increasingly appearing — was this initially meant to be a poorly-timed stopover largely designed to prop up a collapsing Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid coalition government in Israel? In any event, the national security team’s timing was inexplicable, as was their stunning lack of understanding of Israel’s rapidly deteriorating domestic political situation. Even the most casual observer of Israeli politics knew that Bennett was unlikely to survive as prime minister past June 30, when Israel’s Defense Regulations expire. Bennett’s governing coalition, for months now, was rupturing under the weight of its overly broad coalition of political parties and factions, many of whom are fundamentally ideologically opposed to each other. Most perplexing, if not unpardonable, is why Biden’s national security team failed to foresee that longtime Obama-Biden administration nemesis, Benjamin Netanyahu, was eagerly waiting in the wings to use the impending expiration of the regulations as the coup de grâce to put an end to the coalition that ousted him as prime minister in June 2021. Netanyahu did just that, instructing his opposition Likud party to withhold support for a renewal of the regulations they otherwise support. As a result, the first reading of the bill failed in the parliament and Bennett and Lapid faced a fait accompli. Either end their careers as politicians and let the regulations expire on their watch, or dissolve the 24th Knesset, thereby automatically extending the regulations for six months. Boxed in — something the national security team should have foreseen on their own calendars and that of Biden’s — Bennett and Lapid chose the latter. Thus, while Biden will be meeting with Lapid, as interim prime minister, it is Netanyahu — the ghost of Israel’s past, present, and potentially future — who will overshadow, if not eclipse, the president’s visit to Jerusalem. Biden’s second stop, the West Bank, will offer more of the same. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is seriously ill and Biden, has little to offer the Palestinian Authority other than photo ops. Hamas, in turn, will use Biden’s appearance as a reminder that Washington is, in the minds of many Palestinians, the primary reason that Palestine is not yet an independent state with its capital in East Jerusalem. Biden’s last stop, in Saudi Arabia, is potentially more domestically rewarding, but at a steep price. No matter how the administration might try to spin it, given Biden’s “pariah” characterization of Saudi Arabia, repeated condemnations of the kingdom’s human rights abuses, and unwillingness to meet one-on-one with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since U.S. intelligence concluded he “ordered the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi,” Biden will appear as coming hat in hand for Saudi oil. If successful, it will be a marginal domestic political win, but one that makes Biden — and by extension, the presidency — appear small, if not desperate, on the global and national security stage. The Biden administration’s national security team had a far better alternative: a Mideast trip that was Iran-centric. Biden could have united Israel, Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf states by drawing a “red line in the sand” over Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons — and exacted oil production commitments in exchange. Instead, they chose, or at least facilitated, a disjointed agenda that will make Biden look needlessly weak at every stop. The current state of the national security team is evocative of Herman Wouk’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, “The Caine Mutiny.” Set on a minesweeper languishing in the Pacific during World War II, the crew of the fictional USS Caine devolved into shared dysfunction under the command of an ill-suited, domineering captain, eventually leading to mutiny. While Ron Klain certainly is no Lt. Cmdr. Queeg, he is reported to be a “micromanager” and the collective failures of Biden’s national security team happening on his watch portend the beginnings of a Caine-like “mutiny” — particularly as Sullivan, Blinken and Austin slowly begin to grasp that Klain is unwittingly jeopardizing U.S. national security in order to try to fix Biden’s short-term domestic political woes. Biden must recognize he is now a war president and that he must make changes to his national security team to reflect this reality. He should start by appointing a James Baker-type chief of staff who is adept and experienced at winning the short and long national security games. Politically, Biden cannot afford more foreign policy errors, nor should U.S. national security be jeopardized again by this administration’s habitual pattern of being late to the game — as egregiously evidenced by Biden’s initial hesitancy to fully back Ukraine militarily. Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Labor groups are pursuing a multipronged strategy attacking Amazon as it fights union elections. Unions infiltrated Amazon construction sites in Oregon and Washington seeking regulatory violations. Labor has used drones, zoning boards, and local government meetings to derail Amazon facilities. Loading Something is loading. Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. On a frosty morning in February 2021, Tom Tanner walked into an under-construction Amazon warehouse in eastern Washington seeking work. He had driven by, seen the steel framing for the warehouse going up, and wondered if the contractor BZI Construction needed any extra hands. BZI hired him almost immediately.But the relationship didn't last long, Tanner later told a state investigator. He quit two days later.Tanner wasn't just a footloose employee. He's an organizer for the Ironworkers' union, representing workers who build steel-framed structures. During his short-lived employment at BZI, Tanner was working undercover in an attempt to smear one of the most powerful companies in the world: Amazon.Campaigns to organize Amazon warehouse workers have grabbed national headlines. But labor is simultaneously attacking Amazon less overtly. Unions are needling the company with a barrage of regulatory complaints, fighting Amazon in local zoning meetings, digging deep through federal data to attack Amazon's safety record, and even using undercover spies and drones to gather evidence. Experts say that pursuing a multipronged strategy against Amazon gives unions more chances to win. Those wins energize members, deepen ties with allies, and prove to Amazon and its workers that they should take unions seriously.Amazon spends millions on union-avoidance consultants and employs high-powered labor attorneys to fight union victories. The company has been adept at combating organizing activity in its warehouses, quashing union votes in New York and Alabama and aggressively appealing labor's sole successful union election at Amazon's JFK8 warehouse on Staten Island.Meanwhile, union elections, overseen by the National Labor Relations Board, take place on a regulatory playing field tilted heavily toward employers. Amazon workers at the LDJ5 Amazon Sort Center join a rally in support of the union on April 24 in Staten Island, New York. The JFK8 Amazon Fulfillment Center across the street was the first Amazon plant to unionize. Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis/Getty Images "It's really difficult if not impossible to win an NLRB election at Amazon under the current rules," said John Logan, a labor professor at San Francisco State University. Amazon warehouses often employ thousands of people, and turnover rates are high, while Amazon has "virtually unlimited resources with which to fight the union," Logan added. Janice Fine, a labor professor at Rutgers University, said that in the face of Amazon's "overwhelming power and ubiquity," organizers are "looking for things that are going to keep workers hopeful, that are going to keep them moving forward and getting somewhere.""Having campaigns along the way gives allies and volunteers a sense of their own power," Fine added.Spies and dronesFor months, Ironworkers in western states gathered intelligence linking BZI Construction, the company Tanner worked for in Spokane, to the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, a polygamist cult whose leaders have racked up allegations of wage theft and child-labor-law violations at companies they control.Then the Ironworkers released footage, business records, and other information to regulators and the public, arguing that Amazon didn't adequately supervise who its developers and contractors hired to build its warehouses. Steve Pendergrass, the president of the Ironworkers Northwest District Council, said that if Amazon's warehouses were instead built by union labor, the company wouldn't have to worry about being linked to a cult."We're trying to leverage what we can to get Amazon to do the right thing," he said.Wendell Jeffson, a former FLDS member, has said BZI Construction has previously employed minors on Amazon job sites — Jeffson told Insider he used to be one such teenage worker. Wendell Jeffson in a boom lift at the Amazon warehouse in Shelby, Michigan, when he was 17. Courtesy of Wendell Jeffson BZI previously told Insider that Jeffson had "misrepresented" his employment at the company but declined to say how. An Amazon representative told Insider that the company does "not tolerate any illegal labor practices" and expects its contractors and suppliers "to treat their workers with respect and dignity and to abide by respective local, state, and federal laws." Tanner said he didn't find much during the six hours he worked for BZI. He scanned the job site for evidence of safety and labor violations and photographed the sign-in sheet. Otherwise, he said, he left empty-handed.But he returned to the under-construction warehouse more than a dozen times over the subsequent three months, mounting a phone to the side of his car window to surreptitiously capture photos and videos of alleged labor violations on the site."You gotta get your hands dirty to be a good organizer," Tanner said. The Ironworkers sent Tanner's photos to Washington state's workplace regulator, urging it to investigate.Washington's investigation went nowhere; BZI had by that point left the state. The Ironworkers turned to another Amazon job site in Woodburn, Oregon, 30 miles south of Portland. As BZI erected the steel frame for what is set to be one of the largest Amazon warehouses in the country, another Ironworkers organizer, Paul Diaz, took to the skies. Diaz said he obtained a drone pilot's license and flew a camera over the job site for weeks, taking photos and videos that the Ironworkers believe suggest BZI was underpaying workers. (BZI has denied those allegations.) While BZI was hired by general contractors like Clayco and Layton to build Amazon warehouses in Spokane and Woodburn, respectively, Amazon previously told Insider that it was in regular contact with developers and contractors to oversee construction projects. An under-construction Amazon warehouse in New York. Amazon embarked on a logistics building spree in the pandemic. Raychel BrightmanJr./Getty Images Earlier this year, the Ironworkers launched a website, AlarmingAmazon.com, detailing BZI's links to the polygamist cult. The website asks readers to sign a petition demanding Amazon "sever ties with their unsafe, exploitative, and extreme project partners" and hire "safe and reliable contractors who treat workers with dignity and respect."Another Ironworkers council in California operates a similar website, GrimDelivery.com. "Does Amazon do any due diligence on the companies it brings into our communities to build their fulfillment centers?" the website asks.The Ironworkers' complaints prompted an ongoing investigation from Oregon's labor bureau into whether BZI committed wage-theft violations at the Woodburn job site. Experts say that regardless of the investigation's outcome, its existence is a win for unions. James Brudney, a labor professor at Fordham University, said that each blow against Amazon galvanizes union members and deepens support for organized labor.Tanner added, "Everybody wants to be part of a victory."Zoning battlesOther battles are fought in more prosaic arenas.Unions, particularly the Teamsters, whose diverse membership includes 340,000 UPS delivery drivers, are weaponizing local zoning boards to derail new Amazon facilities. The Strategic Organizing Center, a coalition of national labor unions that includes the Teamsters, has been at the forefront of analyzing federal workplace-safety data indicating that Amazon's logistics operations injure workers at disproportionately high rates. An Amazon representative said the company is making "measurable improvements" in reducing injuries and disputed the labor coalition's methodology, saying the company's recordable injury rate declined by more than 13% from 2019 to 2021. Sean O'Brien, the president of the Teamsters, posing with UPS drivers. Teamsters Union The Teamsters' campaign focuses on halting the construction of Amazon warehouses and air hubs that could take jobs from UPS drivers and on slashing tax breaks local jurisdictions would otherwise offer to Amazon. Other unions, including the United Food and Commercial Workers, representing grocery-store workers, and the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, representing warehouse workers, have also campaigned against new Amazon facilities."We're not doing the traditional organizing way. We're making sure Amazon is being held accountable in cities and states," Sean O'Brien, the Teamsters president, told Insider. "And if they're not going to do the right thing in those communities, we're going to stop them from settling down in those communities."Labor can't stop every new Amazon facility, though it had some success upsetting Amazon's building plans in New Jersey, Colorado, and Indiana. In California, labor groups successfully pushed for moratoriums on new warehouse construction that targeted Amazon specifically. And federal prosecutors this summer opened investigations into whether Amazon's pace of work leads to high rates of worker injuries. An Amazon representative said the company would cooperate with investigators and believes it will show the concerns are "unfounded." Meanwhile, momentum for more union votes at Amazon facilities is growing, even though union organizers have so far notched only one, tenuous election victory. Workers at a facility in California's Inland Empire last week filed for a union vote.Racking up victories outside of union votes, Fine said, helps convince labor supporters that even in the face of Amazon's vast resources, "it's not inevitable that you're going to lose."Do you work at Amazon? Got a tip? Contact reporter Katherine Long via phone or the encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-206-375-9280) or email ([email protected]). | Labor Activism |
Workers in the U.S. are facing two potential futures. In one direction, there’s movement toward better working conditions and finally seeing wages catch up to the cost of living. In the other, inflation continues to outpace income — even if people recently fought for higher pay and won. Unionization efforts and collective bargaining, like what’s currently taking place at several Philadelphia institutions, are a major factor in deciding which way it will go. Average wages in the U.S. have been stagnant for years, while the cost of living has grown and worker productivity has fueled increasing corporate profits. “Quiet fleecing” is the term the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank, recently came up with to describe the situation. It’s a play on the more-viral term “quiet quitting” — the idea that workers do what’s required of them to keep their job and nothing more. 💌 Love Philly? Sign up for the free Billy Penn newsletter to get everything you need to know about Philadelphia, every day. Quiet quitting caught hold in the wake of the pandemic and the so-called “Great Resignation,” where it seemed a good part of the labor force was taking a stand against employers. Many actually left for new jobs that offered better pay, conditions, or both. This trend disproportionately benefited college-educated workers, which describes fewer than 1 in 3 Philadelphians. Even among people who have college educations, some have found their jobs simply weren’t paying enough, especially given their requirements. The Philadelphia Museum of Art provides an illustrative example. “I have an insane amount of student loan debt from all the degrees that are required,” said Adam Rizzo, a teacher at PMA and president of the PMA union. “I can’t afford to pay my bills, I can’t afford to buy a house in Philadelphia.” Art Museum workers voted in 2020 to unionize, joining the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME). They’ve been in contract negotiations since then, stuck on salary and benefits. The local chapter went on strike Sept. 26, and stayed off the job for over two weeks, making it the longest strike by U.S. museum workers in recent history. A tentative agreement was announced Friday, just one day before a gala to celebrate a major exhibition opening. “I never thought we’d be out this long,” Rizzo told Billy Penn on Thursday, a day before the agreement. “I think it’s making a really huge impact.” Rizzo said his chapter received support from unions in the service industry, some of which have also been drawing a spotlight to Philadelphia this year. “What I’m hearing from everyone in all sectors is safety in the workplace, a living wage, affordable healthcare and job protection,” Rizzo said. “Those are things that I think are relevant to everyone, regardless of how much education you have or how specialized your work is.” Stephen Herzenberg, an economist at the Keystone Research Center, said unions in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have been making notable progress, and could help “light the fuse” in smaller cities across the state — and perhaps the country. “Workers organize when they’re pissed, and when they can change it,” Herzenberg said. “They’ve been pissed off for a long time, and treated with little dignity for a long time.” Are you getting fleeced? Most workers feel they’re falling behind In recent years, any growth in wages has been outpaced by growth in worker productivity. Instead, that productivity has been funneled into greater corporate profits and ballooning executive salaries, according to data from EPI. This isn’t helped by “hustle culture” mentality, which says workers must go above and beyond listed duties to get ahead. Some say this mentality is especially exploited in professions that carry a level of prestige or tend to attract people passionate about the work — art museums, for example. “It’s just so hard to get your foot in the door at these institutions and you’re expected to take unpaid internships, and basically take whatever they give you,” said Rizzo, the PMA union president. “There’s this unspoken rule that you work more than you’re [officially] expected to, without that extra compensation.” Financial stresses for fleeced workers have grown. Inflation-adjusted average earnings in the U.S. fell 2.8% from August 2021 to August 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even workers who’ve won hard-fought pay increases in recent years feel like they’re falling behind. At South Philly’s Korshak Bagels, workers unionized in 2021 and won a contract earlier this year with raises of up to $3.50 per hour. Eli Zastempowski, an organizer for Local 80 and bagelmonger at Korshak, got a raise of $2.50/hour under the contract, back in May. “I still felt the sting” of inflation, Zastempowski said. “I had just gotten a raise to make more money than I ever had and I still felt like I couldn’t afford groceries and rent.” Emma Lee / WHYY Recent organizing efforts are working against a decades-long trend of employers underpaying workers. One contract cycle alone can’t solve that. “While we do have a union culture [in Philly], and I think it’s coming back, I don’t think it affects the lowest wage workers,” said Rosemary Barbera, a community organizing expert at La Salle University. The unions with the longest history in Philadelphia, the building trades, are also disproportionately white and male. Still, some exceptions are bubbling up, Barbera noted, and unions could bring about major change if they continue the momentum. More coffee shops in Philadelphia are unionizing, including the shops that joined Local 80, and several Starbucks locations that are part of a broader national effort through Workers United. Workers at a Home Depot in Northeast Philly filed unionization paperwork last month, to form what would be the biggest collective bargaining unit at the global chain store. Outside Philadelphia, the Amazon Labor Union, born in Staten Island, NY, and Trader Joe’s United, which now has bases in Massachusetts and Minnesota, have made key wins in the past few months. 43% of Philly families struggle to be ‘self-sufficient’ Labor experts point out that despite recent wins, union membership remains low — last year’s participation rate among full-time U.S. workers was 11% — and it will take more to address broad-based pay inadequacy. Electing worker-friendly policymakers who will push for a higher minimum wage is pivotal to any change, experts say. Philadelphians voted to approve a $15/hour minimum wage in 2019, but the referendum was largely symbolic because state law prohibits the city from raising its overall wage floor. Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf has called for a statewide increase, but his proposals have been ignored by the Republican-controlled state legislature. Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Doug Mastriano, gubernatorial candidates on the Nov. 8 ballot, have opposing views on the topic. Shapiro has said minimum wage must increase to at least $15/hour. Mastriano, in 2019, voted against raising it to $9.50. Discussions around wages, whether among employers or policymakers, have been warped by an outdated definition of poverty, said La Salle’s Barbera. Nearly 1 in 5 Philadelphians were living in poverty as of 2021, according to Census Bureau data. And that’s just one measure of economic hardship. Another is the self-sufficiency standard, a measure developed by economic inequality expert Diana Pearce now used in 37 states. It shows the amount of income needed in a particular geographic location to meet a family’s basic needs — including housing, food and childcare. In Philadelphia, 43% of families live below the self-sufficiency standard, according to nonprofit Pathways PA, which worked with Pearce to calculate the number in each of the commonwealth’s counties. The most recent self-sufficiency standard for a family of one adult and one young child in Philadelphia was about $23/hour, about $48k annually. That was in 2019. Since then, costs have grown thanks to the pandemic and inflation. Worker wages can catch up to a liveable standard, said Herzenberg, of the Keystone Research Center. But it will require a combination of continued worker organizing and advancement of worker-friendly policies. The fate of the latter rests in part on the upcoming midterm elections, he said. Republicans could take control of Congress and halt spending that assists low-wage earners. That would also quash any movement to increase the federal minimum wage. But the other element — organizing — lies in the hands of workers. “We are at a fork in the road,” Herzenberg said. “Philadelphia’s union movement has a legacy that it has a chance to renew.” | Labor Activism |
A U.S. District Court has ordered that Tesla must tell employees about a lawsuit alleging the automaker violated state and federal law by requiring workers to sign separation agreements.
Two former Tesla employees filed the suit in July, alleging that the company required them to sign releases in exchange for less severance than federal and California state law provide. Attorneys asked the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas to prevent the automaker from asking laid-off workers to sign releases in exchange for just one week of severance instead of the eight provided under the law.
More than 500 other employees were let go from Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 in Sparks, Nevada, following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that a coming economic downturn would force the company to lay off 10% of its salaried workforce. The Court order issued Friday protects workers laid off on or after June 19.
The lawsuit — filed by two employees laid off in June from Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 in Sparks, Nevada, and another from Tesla’s Palo Alto store — claims that the company violated Section 1400 of the California Labor Code, as well as the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act by laying off workers without 60 days of advance notice.
“Plaintiffs allege that the separation agreements executed after this lawsuit was filed are coercive, abusive, and misleading because Tesla fails to inform terminated employees/potential class members about ‘the pending litigation and the rights that they are potentially giving up,’” according to the court order.
Tesla filed a motion in August to dismiss the claims. On Friday, the Court ruled that the company must continue to inform its employees about the suit “until the merits of Plaintiffs’ claims are resolved in federal court or in arbitration proceedings.”
The Court denied the plaintiffs’ request for pay and benefits for the 60-day notification period. | Labor Activism |
TIBET HAS LONG BEEN UNDER STATE REPRESSION. PHOTO: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFPTibet, a contentious region in the west of China, has been under state repression for decades. Chinese authorities have torn down Buddhist relics and shut Tibetan-language schools. Intellectuals and cultural leaders are routinely jailed under vague charges, while millions of rural workers have been forced into mass labor programs in recent years. Now, according to two new reports, authorities are out to collect DNA information from residents across the autonomous region, building a biometric database that could offer the government a powerful tool for surveillance on ethnic minorities.A study published by the Citizen Lab of the University of Toronto on Tuesday estimated that police may have collected between roughly 919,282 and 1,206,962 DNA samples—representing between a quarter and one-third of Tibet’s 3.66 million population—since 2016.Analyzing 100 publicly available sources, including social media posts by government accounts, it found that officers visited fields, monasteries, residential neighborhoods, schools, and businesses to collect pin-prick blood samples. “It’s tied into larger attempts by the police to hoover up as much data from the public as they can,” Emile Dirks, author of the Citizen Lab’s report and a researcher who studies Chinese state surveillance, told VICE World News. “What’s concerning is that there really aren’t any limits on police powers in China,” said Dirks, noting the lack of independent oversight from court, media, or civil society to scrutinize how the information might be used. “It’s possible for police to use this completed population database for whatever purpose they see fit.” Another report, published by Human Rights Watch last week, found mass DNA collection drives across seven prefectures and municipalities in the plateau since 2019. There was no indication that people could decline such requests, and children as young as five had their samples taken at kindergartens without their parents’ consent. POLICE OFFICERS COLLECTING DNA FROM CHILDREN IN TIBET. PHOTO: NYEMO COUNTY PUBLIC SECURITY BUREAU“The Chinese government is already subjecting Tibetans to pervasive repression,” said Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch. “Now the authorities are literally taking blood without consent to strengthen their surveillance capabilities.”Under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s rule, China has launched an unprecedented drive to collect DNA samples from residents across the country. To help solve crimes, the Ministry of Public Security has been creating what they called “a male ancestry investigation system” since 2017, by combining extensive family records and genetic data from between 5 to 10 percent of its 700-million male citizens.“China now has the world’s largest forensic DNA database, and appears to be the only country in the world where police are harvesting en masse DNA samples outside the scope of criminal investigations,” James Leibold, a professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne, told VICE World News. POLICE OFFICERS COLLECTING DNA SAMPLE. PHOTO: NYAINRONG ONLINE POLICEThe national campaign has drawn privacy concerns. DNA is more sensitive than other biometric markers, such as irises and facial scans, as they have the power not only to identify an individual, but also their genetic relatives. This means the Chinese government, which has been amassing basic information of the population, could merge these databases and potentially connect any unknown DNA sample to a known person or their genetic kin. But the latest drive in Tibet is particularly alarming, given the long history of state repression in the region, which Beijing sees as a threat. China seized the region in 1950 and crushed an uprising against Chinese occupation in 1959, forcing Tibet’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to flee into exile. Beijing has since maintained a policy of ethnic assimilation in the region, including restrictions on Tibetan education, religion and language.Chinese authorities have justified the data collection as a means for fighting crimes, such as human trafficking, but both reports did not find evidence that the Tibetans, whose DNA samples were being taken, were suspected of criminal offense or part of any investigation. “This suggests that police are treating ordinary Chinese citizens as potential future criminal offenders, even if they have not yet committed any criminal offense,” Dirks added.Instead, there are fears that the database could lead to a wide array of abuses and deepen state control against its indigenous population. For instance, China has also collected biometric data from Uyghur communities in neighboring Xinjiang, where its brutal crackdown has been described by the United Nations as potential crimes against humanity. And Chinese scientists have been using the DNA to map faces, a technology that experts warned could be used to intensify racial profiling. “In addition to the gradual erasure of the Tibetan language, culture and identity, the Chinese Communist Party is now turning to new high-tech forms of social control and repression, such as the building of forensic DNA databases, that violate international norms and laws concerning privacy and the use of biometric data,” Leibold said.Follow Rachel Cheung on Twitter and Instagram.ORIGINAL REPORTING ON EVERYTHING THAT MATTERS IN YOUR INBOX.By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy & to receive electronic communications from Vice Media Group, which may include marketing promotions, advertisements and sponsored content. | Labor Activism |
Uber saw the victory of Labor’s Daniel Andrews in the 2014 Victorian state election as an opportunity to finally get its lucrative Melbourne operations legalised, documents obtained by Guardian Australia reveal.Uber set up shop in Australia in 2012 without the required permits then launched an aggressive campaign to change state laws to legalise its operations across the country. It is a tactic the company has used repeatedly in markets around the world: launch first, establish a loyal customer base, and then lobby for laws to be changed.The ride share company’s ultimate success in Australia had a devastating effect on taxi drivers, who were operating within the law by buying expensive commercial vehicle licences. Remarkable details of Uber’s Australian operations were detailed in the Uber files, an unprecedented leak of company data that the Guardian published earlier this month.In 2014, Uber was working with lobbying firm Civic Group to prepare a plan for influencing the Andrews government that included seeking meetings with dozens of politicians and senior staffers including the new premier, as well as an “aggressive public campaign against the taxi industry”, painting it as dirty, unsafe and unfriendly.Uber should try to “convince the Premier of the need for a regulatory solution for Uber, and that it should be implemented quickly,” Civic Group, which is now a division of communications group Civic Partnership, said in the plan.Uber also sought meetings with other influential Victorians and lobbied Victoria’s road injury insurer, the Transport Accident Commission, by portraying itself as a way to reduce drink-driving.Labor’s victory in November 2014 swept the Coalition from power after just one term, and provided Uber with a chance to rethink its lobbying strategy.“The election of the Andrews Labor Government now provides Uber with an opportunity to advocate more actively for regulatory/legislative change,” Civic Group wrote in its strategy plan.“The objective of this strategy is to secure regulatory/legislative change that will allow Uber to operate legally in Victoria.”The Andrews government announced it would legalise Uber and other ride share services in 2016 and the changes became law in 2018.“The reforms to the commercial passenger industry were not about one provider, it was about doing the right thing to do to modernise the taxi and ride share industry,” an Andrews government spokesperson said.“Anyone using a taxi or ride share service today will know very well that services are vastly better than before these reforms were introduced.”Before the 2014 election Civic Group director, Jason Aldworth, a former Liberal party operative, told Uber executives he had prepared a list of “key backbenchers who can have an influence on policy decisions”.Taxis block the streets of Melbourne’s CBD during a protest against a lack of regulation of UberX in September 2015. Photograph: Melissa Meehan/EPA“We have developed a list of those who we think can advocate effectively to the Minister/Shadow, have influence in the caucus/party room, and potentially be willing to ‘fly a kite’ in the media,” he said in a 10 September 2014 email to Matthew Trigg, who was on Uber’s public policy team. According to the strategy plan, that list included a number of now-ministers in the Andrews government, none of whom responded directly to Guardian Australia’s questions. Sign up to receive an email with the top stories from Guardian Australia every morning Sign up to receive the top stories from Guardian Australia every morningIn response to questions, the Andrews government spokesperson declined to say whether the premier had personally met with Uber. “Any meetings that occurred are conducted in line with the Victorian Government Professional Lobbyist Code,” she said.In the post-election strategy plan, Aldworth said the public part of the campaign should focus on presenting Uber as a cheaper, safer alternative to a dirty, unsafe taxi industry that “has been getting away with this because there has never been another option”.Q&AWhat are the Uber files?ShowThe Uber files is a global investigation based on a trove of 124,000 documents that were leaked to the Guardian by Mark MacGann, Uber's former chief lobbyist in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The data consist of emails, iMessages and WhatsApp exchanges between the Silicon Valley giant's most senior executives, as well as memos, presentations, notebooks, briefing papers and invoices.The leaked records cover 40 countries and span 2013 to 2017, the period in which Uber was aggressively expanding across the world. They reveal how the company broke the law, duped police and regulators, exploited violence against drivers and secretly lobbied governments across the world.To facilitate a global investigation in the public interest, the Guardian shared the data with 180 journalists in 29 countries via the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ). The investigation was managed and led by the Guardian with the ICIJ.In a statement, Uber said: "We have not and will not make excuses for past behaviour that is clearly not in line with our present values. Instead, we ask the public to judge us by what we’ve done over the last five years and what we will do in the years to come."“Currently, there is no motivation for the Government to alienate a large and powerful constituency in the taxi industry by assisting Uber,” he said.“Therefore, the campaign needs to be aggressive in its attack on the industry and demonstrate that the entrenched monopoly is delivering poor services to consumers. Uber should be positioned as the ideal alternative – delivering the better and cheaper services that consumers want, along with better conditions for drivers.”Briefing notes that Aldworth prepared for Uber show the company held a meeting with the chief executive of Avalon airport, Jason Giddings, in August 2014. Aldworth also spoke of the need to get onside the influential Fox family, owners of one of the country’s largest transportation companies, Linfox, which owns the Geelong-based airport.“The Fox Family’s private office have related to me that they have significant taxi problems at Avalon airport, and are in principle very keen for an Uber solution,” Aldworth wrote in a 13 August 2014 email briefing Uber executives about an upcoming meeting with Giddings.In the briefing, Aldworth told Uber that because of its location Avalon was not as well serviced by taxis as its bigger competitor, Tullamarine Airport, in Melbourne’s north.“The Fox Family are one of the most influential families in Melbourne,” Aldworth wrote. “If they were to back Uber, it would mean much more than airport work – it would send a very powerful message to both the business community and to regulators. It would also make it very hard for Tullamarine to continue operating without an Uber X solution for inbound passengers.”However, it is understood the August 2014 meeting was only with Avalon management, not with representatives of the Fox family.“Avalon Airport confirms its management team had discussions with Uber amongst a range of other transport providers in an ongoing effort to improve airport amenity,” a spokesperson for Linfox said.The spokesperson said Avalon had difficulties getting taxis to attend the airport, which it had repeatedly raised with authorities.While in Geelong, Uber executives also met with the TAC’s head of community relations, Joe Calafiore, who is now the body’s chief executive.Emails show that Uber’s head of policy for the Asia Pacific, Jordan Condo, took up suggestions from Civic Group that Uber focus the discussion on “how Uber can contribute to road safety – e.g. reducing the incidence of drink driving by providing people with a safe, cheaper ride home” by highlighting the shortage of taxis at night on weekends.Condo also spoke to the chair of Victoria’s Taxi Services Commission, Graeme Samuel, which Guardian Australia has previously reported.Samuel has told Guardian Australia claims by Uber that Condo struck a deal with the company to legalise its services were incorrect and he had no power to do so because licensing the vehicles it used required a change to legislation.“I did have a conversation with him,” Condo said in a 16 September 2014 email to other Uber executives.“We’re beginning to work off the same sheet of music.”An Uber spokesperson did not respond to Guardian Australia’s detailed questions about the 2014 lobbying push in Victoria, referring instead to a general statement regarding the Uber Files. | Labor Activism |
The Empire Builder, California Zephyr and Southwest Chief routes are all affected. Amtrak's California Zephyr changes crews during a station stop eastbound at Grand Junction, Colo., in 2019.Gene J. Puskar / AP fileSept. 12, 2022, 10:22 PM UTCAmtrak on Monday said it canceled three long-distance train routes in advance of a looming railroad union strike that is threatening to hobble the nation's economy.The train operator, which is not a party in the labor dispute, said in a statement that a strike that could begin Friday "could significantly impact" its intercity passenger rail service, since it operates almost all of its 21,000 route miles outside the Northeast Corridor "on track owned, maintained, and dispatched by freight railroads."To avoid the scenario of passengers being stranded in the event of a worker strike, Amtrak said, it was preemptively canceling Tuesday departures for its Western U.S.-focused Empire Builder, California Zephyr and the Southwest Chief routes. The rail line said it was phasing in additional schedule "adjustments" as needed. Most travel in Amtrak's Northeast Corridor and related branch lines to Albany, N.Y., Harrisburg, Penn., and Springfield, Mass. would not be affected by a strike, the company said. It added that its East Coast Acela express line would continue to operate a full schedule, and only a small number of Northeast Regional departures would be impacted. Freight rail workers are threatening to strike for higher pay, more generous paid leave, and a renegotiation of strict attendance policies and broader working conditions. A White House official told The Associated Press Monday that President Joe Biden and members of his Cabinet have been in touch with both sides in order to avert a strike. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh attended negotiations Sunday, the AP said.A national rail strike "would be an economic disaster — freezing the flow of goods, emptying shelves, shuttering workplaces and raising prices for families and businesses alike," Suzanne Clark, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Monday. The Association of American Railroads trade group has estimated that shutting down the railroads would cost the economy $2 billion a day.Rob Wile is a breaking business news reporter for NBC News Digital. | Labor Activism |
A freight locomotive rolls across an intersection in Fresno, California January 6, 2015. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comWASHINGTON, July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order creating an emergency board to help resolve disputes between major freight rail carriers and their unions, in a move that could help loosen up some supply chain constraints.The order came ahead of a deadline next week to intervene in nationwide U.S. railroad labor talks covering 115,000 workers, or open the door to a potential strike or lockout that could threaten an already-fragile economy and choke supplies of food and fuel. read more If the president had not created the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) before 12:01 a.m. EDT on Monday, the railroads and unions could have opted for operational shutdowns or strikes, respectively. The order becomes effective Monday.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe board "will provide a structure for workers and management to resolve their disagreements. The Board will investigate the dispute and, within 30 days of its establishment, deliver a report recommending how the dispute should be resolved," the White House said.Talks between major freight railroads, including Union Pacific (UNP.N) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N)-owned BNSF, and unions representing their workers have dragged out more than two years.The order triggers a “cooling off” period so the two sides can work toward settlement.U.S. business groups representing retailers and food and fuel producers in letters to Biden have warned that failing to appoint a PEB would be "disastrous" for the softening economy.Railroads move everything from Amazon packages to fuel oil and soybeans, and a shutdown of any kind could send prices for necessities higher and upend battered supply chains.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Chris Sanders and Lisa Baertlein; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Labor Activism |
The legislation would prevent a president from gutting the civil service, a move that former President Donald J. Trump attempted and has threatened to revive should he win another term.Credit...Anna Rose Layden for The New York TimesSept. 15, 2022WASHINGTON — The House passed legislation on Thursday aimed at curbing a president’s authority to hire and fire tens of thousands of federal workers, moving to bolster the job security of civil servants targeted by former President Donald J. Trump and his allies as disloyal “deep state” operatives.The 225-to-204 vote, which was mostly along party lines with almost all Republicans opposed, was a response by the Democratic-led House to Mr. Trump’s attacks on federal workers, which have continued since he left office.Mr. Trump signed an executive order in 2020 allowing federal agencies to reclassify workers in a way that would strip them of the job protections that cover most federal employees and effectively turn their positions into political patronage posts. Mr. Biden rescinded Mr. Trump’s order in 2021 when he took office, in a move hailed by federal union leaders who had decried Mr. Trump’s policy as an unprecedented undermining of the civil service.The Trump administration argued the order was intended to remedy an issue federal auditors had long raised: that firing poor performers in the federal workplace was too complicated and slow. But privately, Trump administration officials described it as an attempt to purge civil servants they deemed without evidence to be part of the “deep state” working against them. The term is usually used to describe a shadowy network of agency or military officials who secretly conspire to influence government policy.The bipartisan legislation, led by Representatives Gerald E. Connolly, Democrat of Virginia, and Brian Fitzpatrick, Republican of Pennsylvania, would prevent a president from placing federal employees under a new classification — what the Trump administration had termed “Schedule F” — without the approval of Congress. All but six Republicans opposed it.“Blind loyalty and ideological purity tests must never determine who we trust with securing our nation’s orders, fortifying federal IT systems, caring for seniors and veterans,” Mr. Connolly said. “Do we really think a government of political hacks and sycophants is in the best interest of the American people?”Democrats in the Senate have introduced a parallel bill, but the measure’s most straightforward path into law may be the annual defense policy measure. The House passed its version of the legislation in July, containing Mr. Connolly’s civil service measure; the Senate has yet to pass its bill.Mr. Trump has threatened to resurrect the policy should he return to the White House, and he has turned the issue — on its face an arcane matter of labor classification — into a touchstone of the far-right culture wars. At rallies, he has promised to renew his fight to weaken the job protections, telling a rally crowd in March that “the deep state must and will be brought to heel.”He has even fund-raised off the issue, inviting his followers to donate to the “Official Drain the Swamp Fund.”“I implemented Schedule F so that presidents could have the ability to fire federal employees who were bypassing democracy for their own benefit,” Mr. Trump wrote in one such entreaty. “These employees are doing a disservice to America and are the very swamp creatures that we’re trying to get rid of.”Earlier this week, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia and one of Mr. Trump’s most strident supporters, railed against the legislation in an Instagram dispatch from a rooftop bar in Washington, telling her followers that the executive order had been particularly important to Mr. Trump.“He wanted to be able to fire people and remove them out of positions controlling the government,” Ms. Greene said. “It’s so important for any president to be able to do that.”Representative James R. Comer, Republican of Kentucky, said he opposed the bill to protect federal workers, warning in a speech on the House floor that civil servants could refuse to carry out policies ordered by the president.“We’ve got a scenario here in Washington, D.C., where the unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats are calling the shots regardless of the will of the American people,” Mr. Comer said. “That’s why we support President Trump’s proposal.”Mr. Trump’s initial order did not have a major effect on the federal work force because he signed it in the waning months of his presidency, and the order gave federal agencies seven months to conduct internal reviews to determine which existing employees could be reclassified.But if Mr. Trump or another Republican who wished to reinstate the order were elected in 2024, tens of thousands of workers could potentially be affected.The order created a new class of federal workers that would be made up of career staff members who are involved in “confidential, policy-determining, policymaking, or policy-advocating” work. | Labor Activism |
By Augusta Saraiva and Ngai Yeung | Bloomberg
About 70,000 truck owner-operators who form the bedrock of California’s transport industry are in limbo as state-level labor rules start applying to them, creating another choke point in stressed US supply chains.
Almost a dozen truckers told Bloomberg News they’re unsure how to comply with California’s Assembly Bill 5, which requires workers satisfy a three-part test to be considered independent contractors, or else be seen as employees entitled to job benefits. The trucking industry relies on contractors — who until now have had flexibility to operate on their own terms — and has fought to be exempt from state regulations for years.
California truck owner-operators must now comply with AB5 after the Supreme Court on June 30 refused to review a case challenging the legislation that sets out the tests for employment-status classification. Off the Road
The California Trucking Association, which brought that challenge, estimates the law may push thousands of independent truckers off the road while they take the necessary steps to comply with the new regulations.
More than 70% of truckers serving some of the country’s largest ports — including Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland — are owner-operators, and AB5 will govern their relationships with carriers, brokers and shippers in most cases, according to the CTA.
“We have never gotten any good answers from anyone official in California on how this is supposed to be enforced or how our members can comply,” said Norita Taylor, the director of public relations at the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association.
The law comes into effect for truckers in the busiest months of the year as retailers stock up on back-to-school and holiday goods. At the same time, dockworkers and railroad workers are currently negotiating contracts with their respective employers. Additional transportation snarls would only worsen pandemic-era supply-chain chaos and add to inflationary pressures, threatening to slow economic growth. “This denial couldn’t have come at a worse time,” said Eric Sauer, senior vice president for government affairs at the CTA. “We’re in peak harvest season. We’re also in peak construction season. And this is the time for peak holiday imports coming into the ports.”
The Port of Long Beach is monitoring the trucking situation as AB5 comes into effect.
“We understand the capacity concerns at this very busy time for the port complex,” Deputy Executive Director Noel Hacegaba said.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is looking forward to more detail and a plan of action from California, a White House official said.
Given the ambiguity on how AB5 will play out, it may force carriers to immediately downsize their contracted owner-operator fleets, or hire former owner-operators as company drivers effective July 7, said Kevin McMaster, vice president of carrier sales at Encinitas, California-based Flock Freight.
“This would cause a ripple effect in the industry, pushing many drivers who don’t want to apply for their own authority to lease out of state, likely in Arizona or Nevada, and even force some into retirement due to increased market pressures,” he said. “There will likely be pressure added on capacity in California that could exacerbate an already tough environment where drivers are at a premium.”
Capacity Loss
Matt Schrap, chief executive officer of the Long Beach, California-based Harbor Trucking Association, is projecting some level of capacity loss as drivers exit the marketplace because they don’t want to be employees, nor do they want to obtain their own operating authority.
The cost to transition from an owner-operator model may reach $20,000 annually as truckers file for the appropriate licenses and pay additional fees and insurance, Schrap said.
The best advice for independent drivers now is to “find a lawyer,” he said.
Exemptions, Injunctions
California passed the AB5 law in 2019, aiming at gig-economy giants including Uber, Lyft and DoorDash.
But these companies won exemption, along with other professionals, including musicians, freelance writers and architects.
The trucking industry scored a temporary injunction that remained in place until last week’s Supreme Court decision.
The timing of the decision is “nothing new,” said former Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, the Democrat who proposed the bill.
“They’ve known for the last two and a half years that it was equally possible that this injunction would not hold. This is not a shock.”
‘Constant Bogeyman’
Still, some see in the law an opportunity to address longstanding pitfalls within the industry.
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represents about 1.2 million US and Canada workers mainly in trucking, says the law will avoid misclassification and will guarantee independent contractors are paid fair wages, benefits and employee-related fees.
“Over the last decade, the California Labor Commissioner found misclassification is rampant at our ports,” Randy Cammack, president of Teamsters Joint Council 42, said in a statement. “The race to the bottom in trucking is going to end.”
Since 2012, the California Labor Commissioner’s Office issued about 500 decisions finding that port trucking companies had misclassified drivers, ordering them to pay over $50 million to these workers.
“We’ll blame AB5 for everything that really is a result of decades of deregulation in the trucking industry,” Gonzalez said. “This is a constant bogeyman.”
‘Blow East’
Truckers in other states are looking closely at California as an example of what might come next for them, according to the CTA’s Sauer. “A lot of the laws and regulations that get adopted in California blow east,” he said.
Home to the second-largest port complex in the US, New York and New Jersey failed to pass similar bills during the pandemic, but both states have since taken steps to regulate independent contractors. Other states including Washington and Massachusetts have also proposed labor-regulation bills.
It’s “sad to see people don’t understand the severity of the situation,” said Edisson Villacis, president of the Elizabeth, New Jersey-based Port Driver Association. If anything, all the confusion in California is a cautionary tale. “It’s a chain reaction and nobody is paying any attention.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2022 Bloomberg L.P. | Labor Activism |
An analysis published Tuesday shows that the top executives of the largest corporations in the United States have seen their pay soar by nearly 1,500% over the past 43 years, helping to fuel a massive surge in inequality as workers' wages lag.Between 1978 and 2021, according to new research from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), CEO compensation at the 350 largest publicly traded U.S. companies rose by an inflation-adjusted 1,460%, far outstripping the 18.1% pay increase that the nation's typical worker saw during that period.The trend of soaring CEO pay has continued during the coronavirus pandemic, which caused mass economic chaos and job loss among ordinary workers. EPI found that "while millions lost jobs in the first year of the pandemic and suffered real wage declines due to inflation in the second year, CEOs' realized compensation jumped 30.3% between 2019 and 2021.""Typical worker compensation among those who remained employed rose 3.9% over the same time span," note EPI's Josh Bivens and Jori Kandra, the authors of the new report.The findings come amid mounting fears of a global recession triggered by central banks' attempts to fight inflation via increasingly aggressive interest rate hikes, a strategy aimed at crushing economic demand.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the world's most powerful central banker, has been forthright about the primary goals of rate hikes: A weaker labor market and lower wages. According to the Fed's own projections, rate increases could throw around 1.5 million people in the U.S. out of work by the end of next year."What we hope to achieve is a period of growth below trend which will cause the labor market to get back into better balance and that will bring wages back down to levels that are more consistent with 2% inflation over time," Powell said last month.When Powell voices his desire to "get wages down"—as he did during a May press conference—he's not referring to the skyrocketing pay of top corporate executives or Wall Street bankers, who have seen their bonuses surge by 1,743% since 1985. As The Lever's Matthew Cunningham-Cook reported earlier this year, Powell's Fed has "declined to implement a law to reduce the skyrocketing paychecks of his former colleagues on Wall Street."Bivens and Kandra write in their new analysis that the chief executive pay surge in recent decades is not the "result of a competitive market for talent but rather reflect[s] the power of CEOs to extract concessions."In 2021, the CEOs of top U.S. companies raked in nearly 400 times more pay than the typical worker."Some observers argue that exorbitant CEO compensation is merely a symbolic issue, with no consequences for the vast majority of workers," Bivens and Kandra note. "However, the escalation of CEO compensation, and of executive compensation more generally, has fueled the growth of top 1% and top 0.1% incomes, generating widespread inequality."To begin reversing out-of-control CEO pay and bolstering wage growth among ordinary workers, EPI recommends "implementing higher marginal income tax rates at the very top," which "would limit rent-seeking behavior and reduce the incentives for executives to push for such high pay.""Another option," Bivens and Kandra write, "is to set corporate tax rates higher for firms that have higher ratios of CEO-to-worker compensation," an idea proposed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in his 2021 Tax Excessive CEO Pay Act.The bill, which garnered just three co-sponsors in the Senate and 22 in the House, never received a vote. | Labor Activism |
NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Authorities found children as young as 13 working at a Korean-operated parts supplier to automakers Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) and Kia Corp (000270.KS), and have fined the company and a labor recruiter, the U.S. Department of Labor and the Alabama Department of Labor said on Tuesday.In August, authorities accused Alexander City, Alabama-based SL Alabama in federal court of violating child labor laws.The action against SL Alabama, which supplies lights and mirrors for Hyundai and Kia assembly plants in the U.S. South, came following a July Reuters article that documented child labor practices at another auto parts supplier in the state, Hyundai-owned SMART Alabama LLC.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) said in a release that workers aged 13-15 were found at the SL Alabama plant and said it had fined the company, a unit of Korea's SL Corp (005850.KS), around $30,000. SL Alabama agreed to implement new monitoring and training programs, the federal regulator said. DOL said it also obtained a court order to prevent the plant from “shipping or delivering” any goods produced in violation of federal child labor laws."Our investigation found SL Alabama engaged in oppressive child labor," said Kenneth Stripling, DOL's Wage and Hours Division Director in Birmingham, Alabama, in the statement.In a separate statement on Tuesday, Alabama’s state DOL said it had levied around $35,000 in total in civil penalties on SL Alabama and JK USA, a temporary labor recruiting firm. JK USA employed five minors between the ages of 13 and 16 at the plant, the state DOL said.Earlier coverage by Reuters helped to draw regulators' scrutiny to the broader network of Korean-operated automotive plants in Alabama that produce parts that Hyundai and its sister company Kia use at their flagship U.S. vehicle plants in Alabama and Georgia.SL Alabama told Reuters in a statement that a staffing agency had furnished some employees to the plant who were not old enough to work there. SL said it had cooperated with regulators, terminated its relationship with the staffing firm, agreed to fines and other corrective actions, and replaced the president of the facility.SL "has never knowingly employed minors to work at any of its facilities," the company said. JK USA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Regulators said plant operators are accountable for child labor violations even when unauthorized employees are brought in by third-party recruiting firms."Employers are responsible for knowing who is working in their facilities," the DOL statement said.Regulators did not accuse Hyundai and Kia of wrongdoing in the case.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Mica Rosenberg and Joshua Schneyer in New York and Kristina Cooke in San Francisco
Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Labor Activism |
Some employees at the Amazon warehouse where a worker was transported to a hospital and died last week are voicing anger and frustration over the company's response, calling on the e-commerce giant to release more information.The fatality, which occurred on July 13 during the company's Prime Day shopping rush at a Carteret, New Jersey, fulfillment center, has kicked off an investigation by federal regulators at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.On Friday, Amazon rejected as "rumors" the concerns raised by some staffers that the death was work-related, with spokesman Sam Stephenson telling NBC News in a statement that the incident "was related to a personal medical condition."Stephenson said Amazon had conducted an internal investigation during which a fellow employee said that the worker who died had reported experiencing chest pains the evening before his shift but didn't alert colleagues or managers at the warehouse.Do you have information to share about this Amazon facility? Contact us.The comments come after more than a week of growing frustration among facility employees, some of whom have criticized the company's response. Amazon said in the days after the fatality that it was "deeply saddened by the passing of one of our colleagues" and that it had contacted the worker's family to offer support. It also said it was providing counseling resources to employees.Amazon hasn't released any additional information about its investigation into the incident, the worker or conditions at the warehouse at the time.Days after the employee's death, warehouse management posted a remembrance card, viewed by NBC News, on a company bulletin board and distributed it in an internal note to employees. Some workers said they were upset that the card contained little information about the employee, identifying him only by first name, or what led to his death."Remembering our Rafael," it says, next to a photograph of the employee. The text on the card said that Rafael had worked at the facility, called EWR9, for only a few months. It said he was "very hard working" and "always looking to help out where needed.""We will remember Rafael and give our condolences to his family," the card said, noting that a funeral would be held in the Dominican Republic.NBC News couldn't immediately identify the worker's full name or contact his family. The Dominican Republic's embassy in Washington didn't respond to requests for comment.Two EWR9 employees who spoke to NBC News said the area where the employee died was on an upper floor and known for particularly high temperatures within the warehouse. Both workers requested anonymity for fear of reprisal. Their deceased colleague had worked as a "waterspider," one of the workers said, a job that involves carting goods around the facility.The other worker said she had asked her managers about his death but wasn't given more information. One manager told her not to talk about it, she said.She said frustration at the warehouse has run high since the fatality. "It’s scary," she said. "We should know what happened and how did it happen. It could have been any of us." Amazon said Friday that it had conducted an internal investigation that ruled out working conditions as a culprit and disputed labor leaders’ account of the timeline."We’re thankful for the quick actions of our own teams and the first responders," Amazon's Stephenson said in the statement. "This has been a tragic situation for our employee’s family and for our colleagues at EWR9 who worked with him."On Thursday, Amazon Labor Union President Chris Smalls, who led a nearby Staten Island, New York, warehouse to a union victory this year, wrote on Twitter that the worker who died had been unconscious on the floor for more than 20 minutes and that it was nearly an hour before 911 was called. Smalls said the man was told to keep working after telling management he was experiencing chest pains.Stephenson gave a different account Friday, saying that an onsite medical expert began emergency treatment immediately after the employee collapsed. Amazon said 911 was called immediately and arrived within 16 minutes.Smalls didn’t return requests for comment.Carteret recorded an outdoor high of about 92 degrees on July 13, according to AccuWeather, although the incident occurred in the morning.Jon Salonis, a spokesman for the borough of Carteret, said that an emergency call first came in from the facility at about 8 a.m. and that the worker was subsequently transported to a nearby hospital.Separately on Monday, officials from OSHA, the Labor Department's workplace-safety arm, inspected Amazon warehouses in New York City, Orlando and Chicago in response to referrals from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan.Investigators were examining the company's pace of work, safety concerns, and "possible fraudulent conduct designed to hide injuries from OSHA and others," law enforcement officials told NBC News.Amazon said that it would "of course cooperate with OSHA in their investigation, and we believe it will ultimately show that these concerns are unfounded.” | Labor Activism |
A group of young protesters advocating for “climate jobs for all” have descended on Parliament House to argue the Albanese Government’s emissions proposal is a “death sentence”.A group of young protesters from Tomorrow Movement have accused ACT Police of stopping them "sharing their stories" as Australia's 47th parliament convened for the first time.The activists on Tuesday demanded the new Labor government deliver “real solutions” to climate disasters, the rising cost of living and the housing crisis.“Parliament is where the voice of the people is meant to be heard. But our cries for action are being drowned out by fossil fuel billionaires and big business making record profits while the rest of us struggle to get by,” a statement said.Stream more on politics with Flash. 25+ news channels in 1 place. New to Flash? Try 1 month free. Offer ends 31 October, 2022 “We need more than targets to solve the climate crisis. We need to transform every part of our society to urgently cut emissions and prepare our communities to survive the climate disasters we are already struggling through.“We have everything we need to address the climate crisis and improve our lives in the process. We need a meaningful plan that actually addresses the climate crisis. The first step to delivering a real plan for addressing this crisis is hearing directly from our communities.”Footage posted to social media showed a number of protesters on the staircase in Parliament House’s public foyer chanting various slogans and holding signage.“History will remember, remember you,” they chanted.“History will remember, remember you.“Which side are you on, which side are you on?“Will you stand with us or the wealthy few?”In a social media post the group said they were then stopped by police before they continued demonstrations outside of the building on the grass.They argue the government’s proposed emissions reduction legislation was not a plan but a “death sentence”.A number of politicians including Climate 200-backed independents Dr Monique Ryan and David Pocock met with the group out the front of Parliament, where they posed for pictures and chatted.Several Greens MPs also posed for pictures too, with Senator Mehreen Faruqi taking to social media to welcome the movement.“Young people are showing the rest of us, through action, how to secure their future and oppose the politicians that seek to destroy it,” she wrote on Twitter.The Albanese government will be introducing the Climate Change Bill 2022 into Parliament on Wednesday – which will enshrine into law the nation’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and net zero by 2050.The government is hoping to secure the support of the Greens, which hold 12 of the 18 crossbench seats in the Senate. The government has a majority in the House of Representatives.However, leader Adam Bandt has repeatedly told Mr Albanese the goals in the bill are "weak" and vowed to vote against the legislation unless amendments were made.While the Greens had pushed for a 75 per cent reduction by 2030, it wants other issues in the bill to be fixed, such as a "genuine floor" and "making sure it's not a ceiling".According to the Tomorrow Movement’s website, their demands are for the new government to commit to “climate jobs for all”.It is calling on the government to make a plan to tackle the climate and jobs crisis at the scale necessary to limit the worst impacts of climate change, and commit to a Senate Inquiry to hear directly from communities and deliver real solutions to the climate, jobs and housing crisis facing our country. | Labor Activism |
Starbucks Workers United t-shirts hang outside while unionized workers strike for unfair labor practices outside a Starbucks location on 874 Commonwealth Avenue in the Brookline neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts, US, on Tuesday, July 19, 2022.Scott Brauer | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesStarbucks is asking the federal labor board to suspend all mail-in ballot union elections nationwide, alleging that the board's personnel and the union organizing its baristas tampered with the voting process.The coffee giant wrote in a letter to the National Labor Relations Board chairman and general counsel on Monday that the labor board's officials engaged in misconduct during an election in the Kansas City area and has likely acted similarly in other elections. Starbucks cited a career NLRB professional who approached the company as a whistleblower.More than 220 Starbucks cafes in the U.S. have voted to unionize, according to an NLRB tally as of Friday. An additional 34 elections have been ordered or are in progress, and seven more stores are waiting to schedule elections.In addition for asking for a pause on all scheduled mail-in elections, Starbucks is requesting that all future elections will be held in person while the allegations can be investigated.NLRB officials allegedly coordinated with union agents to arrange for in-person voting at the labor board's offices during mail-in ballot elections, according to the company. Starbucks also alleges that Workers United agents were given confidential, real-time information about specific vote counts so the union could target employees who hadn't voted yet. NLRB officials and Workers United then allegedly coordinated to cover up this activity, the company said.Starbucks' letter includes emails purportedly from union representatives and labor board officials, corroborating its accusations. The company said it received the documentation from the whistleblower. | Labor Activism |
American railway companies and unions have reached a tentative labor agreement amid the threat of strikes.U.S. Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh announced the news on Twitter early Thursday, "following more than 20 consecutive hours of negotiations at" his office in Washington, D.C. He said the tentative agreement "balances the needs of workers, businesses, and our nation's economy.""The Biden Administration applauds all parties for reaching this hard-fought, mutually beneficial deal," Walsh added. "Our rail system is integral to our supply chain, and a disruption would have had catastrophic impacts on industries, travelers and families across the country."U.S. President Joe Biden released a statement early Thursday, calling the tentative agreement "an important win for our economy and the American people.""It is a win for tens of thousands of rail workers who worked tirelessly through the pandemic to ensure that America's families and communities got deliveries of what have kept us going during these difficult years," Biden said. "These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned. The agreement is also a victory for railway companies who will be able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come."The president thanked the rail companies and unions as well as Walsh and other officials in his administration, noting that the deal will "keep our critical rail system working and avoid disruption of our economy.""As a result, we will keep Americans on the job in all the industries in this country that are touched by this vital industry," he added. "For the American people, the hard work done to reach this tentative agreement means that our economy can avert the significant damage any shutdown would have brought."Details were not disclosed about the tentative agreement, which came ahead of Friday's strike deadline.Passenger railroad service Amtrak told ABC News in a statement Thursday that it "is working to quickly restore canceled trains and reaching out to impacted customers to accommodate on first available departures."A potential strike could lead to $2 billion a day in lost economic output, according to the Association of American Railroads, which lobbies on behalf of railway companies. Rail is critical to the entire goods side of the economy, including agriculture, manufacturing, retail and warehousing. Freight railroads are responsible for transporting 40% of the nation's long-haul freight -- and a work stoppage could endanger those shipments.Prior to Thursday's tentative agreement, unions said that workers were seeking improvements to working conditions, accusing rail companies of penalizing workers for taking time off for medical reasons. The unions also said that rail companies were jeopardizing the country's economy to force a deal.The National Carriers' Conference Committee (NCCC), which represents the U.S. freight railroads in national collective bargaining, said rail employees are provided "significant" time off and that the companies have offered a fair contract that includes a significant wage increase.Mina Kaji, William Kim, Amanda Mail and Max Zahn contributed to this report. | Labor Activism |
(New York) – The Chinese government has used its justice system to sentence and imprison an estimated half-million people during the brutal crackdown in Xinjiang, Human Rights Watch said today. While not all convicted prisoners faced political charges, the available figures indicate that the total number of people wrongfully imprisoned in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is much higher than generally reported based on earlier official figures. These formal prosecutions, in which many people received punishments without being tried, are distinct from the arbitrary detentions in the extralegal “political education” facilities. Concerned countries should press the Chinese government to release all Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities who are wrongfully detained in Xinjiang and elsewhere. “The Chinese government may have hoped that formally prosecuting people in Xinjiang would avoid the limelight of mass detentions in extralegal political education camps,” said Maya Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch. “But many of these convictions just add to the crimes against humanity of wrongful imprisonment against Uyghurs and other Turkic people.” Xinjiang authorities initiated a Strike Hard Campaign against Violent Terrorism in 2014 but significantly escalated it in 2017. Previously, statistics from the Xinjiang High People’s Court put the total number of people sentenced between 2017 and 2018 at 232,524, a figure that was widely reported in 2019. Since then, the Xinjiang High People’s Court has not released new official sentencing figures. The Xinjiang High People’s Procuratorate, which has continued publishing statistics, reported in February 2022 that a total of 540,826 people have been prosecuted in the region since 2017. Given that China’s conviction rate is above 99.9 percent, almost all of these 540,826 people would have been convicted. Year Number of prosecutions in Xinjiang per year (Source: Xinjiang High People’s Procuratorate) 2017 215,823 2018 135,546 2019 96,596 2020 48,258 2021 44,603 Total 540,826 The annual arrest and prosecution figures, published by the Xinjiang High People’s Procuratorate, closely track the Strike Hard campaign. At the start of the crackdown in 2014, annual arrest and prosecution figures in Xinjiang jumped by 96 percent and 59 percent, respectively. These figures then spiked dramatically in 2017, the year when the Xinjiang authorities escalated the crackdown. While the 2020 and 2021 figures have since dropped, they remain elevated, and are comparable to those figures at the start of the Strike Hard Campaign, suggesting that it is continuing. Available evidence also suggests that the vast majority of the 540,826 people prosecuted most likely remain in prison. Official statistics from the Xinjiang High People’s Court at the start of the government’s Strike Hard Campaign in Xinjiang showed a dramatic increase in the number of people given lengthy sentences. Prior to 2017, about 10.8 percent of the people sentenced received prison sentences of more than five years. In 2017, they made up 87 percent of the sentences. The Xinjiang High People’s Court has also not released new sentencing breakdowns. The Xinjiang Victims Database, a nongovernmental organization, has extensively documented the cases of over 8,000 detainees based on family accounts and official documents. The group found that, based on a leaked list of prisoners in Konasheher (Shufu) county in Kashgar prefecture in southern Xinjiang, 99 percent of the inmates were given terms 5 years or longer in 2017, with an average of 9.24 years. Based on such information, an estimated half-million people in Xinjiang remain incarcerated in the region’s prisons since the escalation of the Strike Hard Campaign in 2017. Very few court verdicts related to the Strike Hard Campaign are publicly available. The Xinjiang Victims Database has documented that the Chinese government is concealing these verdicts from the victims’ relatives and lawyers – in rare cases where they had legal access – and from the public, despite an official commitment to make most court verdicts publicly available. An earlier Human Rights Watch analysis of 58 of those verdicts that were available suggests that many convicted during the Strike Hard Campaign had been imprisoned without committing a legally recognizable offense. The Xinjiang Victims Database research also shows that in some cases the defendants were not in court when they were convicted, but in extralegal political education camps or pretrial detention centers, without having gone through any semblance of a criminal trial. Xinjiang’s Strike Hard Campaign has targeted what the Chinese government calls the “ideological virus” of Turkic Muslims. These ideas include what authorities describe as extreme religious dogmas, any non-Han Chinese sense of identity, and relationships with people abroad. Ostensibly to maintain stability and to counter terrorism in Xinjiang, the Strike Hard Campaign uses mass surveillance and political indoctrination of the entire population. The authorities evaluate people’s thoughts, behavior, and relationships based on bogus and broad criteria – such as whether they use WhatsApp or a Virtual Private Network (VPN) – to determine how their conduct should be “corrected.” As many as a million people had been wrongfully detained in political education camps, pretrial detention centers, and prisons at the height of the crackdown. Those whose transgressions the authorities consider light are held in extralegal political education camps or under other forms of movement restrictions, including house arrest. Some camp detainees have been released following international pressure, though they continue to be subjected to continued surveillance, control of their movements, and in some cases forced labor. Others remain forcibly disappeared. Past government practice suggests that more “serious” cases are eventually processed in the formal criminal justice system. The Chinese Communist Party controls all three branches of the criminal justice system, resulting in widespread denial of fair trial rights. While basic procedural protections exist, the authorities can easily circumvent them. The government regularly deprives suspects in political cases of all protections. This is particularly true in the top-down Strike Hard Campaign, in which the Party directs the police, the procuratorate, and the judiciary to work together to meet political objectives. In April 2021, Human Rights Watch concluded that the Strike Hard Campaign’s abuses in Xinjiang amounted to crimes against humanity – serious crimes committed as part of widespread or systematic attacks on the population. They included mass arbitrary detention, torture, enforced disappearances, mass surveillance, cultural and religious persecution, separation of families, forced returns to China, forced labor, and sexual violence and reproductive rights violations. Recent official speeches and government reports emphasize that “counterterrorism and stability maintenance” in Xinjiang have to be “legalized and normalized” (反恐维稳法治化常态化), a term that appears to be an interpretation of President Xi Jinping’s speech to the Third Xinjiang Central Work Forum in September 2020. The use of the formal criminal justice system may be part of the authorities’ efforts to “legalize and normalize” the Xinjiang crackdown. It is unclear whether government efforts to present the campaign as “legalized and normalized” were planned, or a response to unprecedented international attention since late 2018 on the political education camps, or a mix of both. Policy documents since early 2018 have espoused the vision that the campaign’s escalated phase would last for five years from 2017, and that it would “achieve stability within one year, consolidate [such a state] the second year, normalcy in the third year, and overall stability in five years” (一年稳住、两年巩固、三年常态、五年全面稳定). In December 2021, Ma Xingrui, a technocrat from the Chinese aerospace industry experienced in governing the wealthier coastal regions of Shenzhen and Guangdong, replaced Chen Quanguo, one of the top officials most responsible for the region’s abuses, as Party secretary. In July 2022, President Xi visited the region for the first time since 2014, when he may have paved the way for the repressive campaign. During the July visit, Xi said that while the region must “maintain a firm grip on stability,” it should also “move towards prosperity.” On August 31, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights released a report substantiating the mass arbitrary detention, torture, cultural persecution, forced labor, and other serious human rights violations documented by human rights groups in Xinjiang. The high commissioner’s report says the Chinese government’s conduct in the region may constitute international crimes, “in particular crimes against humanity.” “The Chinese government’s glossy narrative on Xinjiang attempts to turn fiction into fact, saying that everything has been going as planned, and that the Communist Party has quelled any unrest and is now providing economic opportunities,” Wang said. “Governments should reject this fairy tale, seize the momentum of the UN report, and strengthen their efforts to investigate and hold accountable Chinese officials responsible for crimes against humanity.” | Labor Activism |
Discussions about atonement for the enslavement of Black Americans has a long history in the United States. Most famously, General William T. Sherman drafted Special Field Order 15 in 1865. The order stipulated that Confederate land seized in Georgia and South Carolina would be split among formerly enslaved Black people in those states, no more than 40 acres per family. Black Americans commonly refer to this measure as “40 acres and mule,” and it has become a long-standing symbol for both the promise of and pessimism about repayment for slavery, or reparations. Efforts toward reparations have continued into the 21st century. In 2021, Evanston, Illinois, became the first U.S. city to create a reparations plan for its Black residents. And in 2022, Harvard University created a $100 million fund for Black students who are descendants of enslaved people. Given this enduring history, the survey asked Black Americans to share their views on the impact of slavery on their position in the United States; whether the descendants of enslaved Black people should be repaid for the labor of their ancestors; the forms of repayment that would be most helpful; the institutions or individuals who bear responsibility for repayment; and the likelihood that repayment would occur in their lifetime. The legacy of slavery affects Black Americans today Nearly six-in-ten Black adults (57%) say their ancestors were enslaved. This includes 41% who report their ancestors were enslaved in the U.S. and 5% who say they were enslaved outside the U.S., as well as another 11% who say their ancestors were enslaved both in the U.S. and in another country. However, not all Black Americans are certain whether their ancestors were enslaved, and some indicate their ancestors were not enslaved at all. About one-third (34%) say they are unsure if their ancestors were enslaved, while 8% say their ancestors were not enslaved. Despite differences in their personal knowledge about the enslavement of their ancestors, a large majority of Black adults (85%) say the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people in the U.S. today. This includes 55% who say the legacy of slavery affects Black people a great deal and 30% who say it affects them a fair amount. Much smaller shares of Black adults say the legacy of slavery does not have much (9%) or any effect (4%) on the position of Black people in the U.S. today. Among Black Americans, political party affiliation, educational attainment and income are important points of difference in views on this question. The share of Black Democrats and Democratic leaners (57%) who say the legacy of slavery affects Black people a great deal outpaces the share of Black Republicans and Republican leaners (39%) who say the same. Black adults who identify as politically liberal (64%) are more likely than those who identify as moderate (51%) or conservative (54%) to say the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people a great deal. And Black adults who say they are registered to vote (58%) are more likely than those who say they are not registered (45%) to say the same. Black adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher level of education (61%) are more likely than those with a high school diploma or less (48%) and those with some college education but no bachelor’s degree (56%) to say that the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people a great deal. And Black adults with upper (61%) and middle incomes (57%) are more likely than those with lower incomes (51%) to say this. There are also regional differences among Black adults on this question. Those who live in the Northeastern U.S. (62%) are more likely than those in the South (53%) or the Midwest (51%) to say the legacy of slavery affects Black people a great deal. But no matter which region of the country they are in, at least seven-in-ten Black adults say slavery’s legacy affects Black people in the U.S. today at least a fair amount. Black adults do not differ by ethnicity or immigrant status on this issue. Non-Hispanic Black adults (55%) are about as likely as multiracial (50%) and Hispanic (51%) Black adults to say that the legacy of slavery affects Black people a great deal. Likewise, U.S.-born Black adults (55%) are about as likely as Black immigrants (55%) to say this. Among the general public, only 28% say the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people in the U.S. today a great deal. Four-in-ten U.S. adults (40%) say the legacy of slavery has little to no effect on the position of Black Americans in the country today. Most Black adults agree the descendants of enslaved people should be repaid A large majority of Black adults (77%) think the descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. should be repaid in some way, a view widely shared across many demographic subgroups of Black Americans. Black adults’ differences on this question fall primarily along the lines of political affiliation. Although the majority of Black adults in both partisan coalitions think descendants of those enslaved in the U.S. should be repaid, Democrats (81%) are more likely to hold this view than Republicans (64%). Black liberals (84%) and moderates (79%) are more likely than conservatives (71%) to say that descendants of the enslaved should be repaid. And Black adults who say they are registered to vote (80%) are more likely than those who report they are unregistered (72%) to support reparations for slavery. Notably, large majorities of almost all these groups support reparations for the descendants of those enslaved in the U.S. Black adults’ support for reparations also differs based on their views of identity and society. In the survey, Black adults were asked how important being Black was to how they think about themselves and also whether racist laws or racist individuals are a bigger problem for Black people in the U.S. today. Black adults who say that being Black is extremely or very important to their personal identity (84%) are more likely to support reparations for slavery than those who say that being Black is somewhat, a little or not at all important to them (58%). And Black adults who say racist laws are a bigger problem for Black people (87%) are more likely than those who say racist individuals are the bigger problem (72%) to support reparations, though large majorities of both groups still agree. While nearly three-quarters or more of Black adults across education and income levels support reparations, about one-in-five Black adults with a bachelor’s degree (21%) as well as Black adults with middle (21%) or upper incomes (20%) do not think descendants of enslaved people should be repaid. The pattern of wide support for reparations among Black adults is reversed when it comes to the general public. Just 30% of all U.S. adults say descendants of enslaved people should be repaid in some way, a much lower share than the 77% of Black adults who say the same. In fact, nearly seven-in-ten among the public overall (68%) say descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. should not be repaid, compared with 17% of Black adults who say the same. The types of repayment Black adults think would be most helpful Black adults who say descendants of enslaved people should be repaid were asked how helpful the following forms of repayment would be: educational scholarships, financial assistance for starting or improving a business, financial assistance for buying or remodeling a home, and cash payments. Overall, about three-quarters or more of Black adults who support reparations say scholarships (80%) and financial assistance for businesses (77%) and for homes (76%) would be extremely or very helpful for descendants of enslaved people. Fewer say the same about cash payments (69%). Although majorities across most Black demographic groups say each of these forms of repayment would be extremely or very helpful, a few differences by age, education and income stand out. Of those who support reparations, Black adults ages 65 and older (85%) are slightly more likely than those 30 to 49 (78%) to say that educational scholarships would be extremely or very helpful. Black adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher level of education (83%) and those with some college education but no bachelor’s degree (82%) are more likely than those with a high school diploma or less (75%) to say that scholarships would be extremely or very helpful. And Black adults with upper and middle incomes (both 84%) are more likely than those with lower incomes (75%) to say this. Meanwhile, some Black adults were more likely than others to say cash payments would be extremely or very helpful. Black adults with a high school diploma or less (70%) as well as those with some college but no four-year degree (73%) are more likely than those with a bachelor’s degree (62%) to say cash payments would be extremely or very helpful. And the shares of Black adults with lower (72%) and middle incomes (68%) who say that cash payments would be extremely or very helpful are larger than the share of upper-income Black adults (57%) who say the same. Responsibility for reparations and the likelihood repayment will occur Black adults who say descendants of enslaved people should be repaid were also asked about the institutions and individuals who bear responsibility for repayment and whether repayment, of any type or from any source, would happen in their lifetime. Overall, Black adults are pessimistic about the likelihood of reparations, but a large majority say the U.S. federal government should have all or most of the responsibility for repayment. Black registered voters most likely to point to the federal government and businesses for repayment Among Black adults who support reparations, about eight-in-ten (81%) say the U.S. federal government should have all or most of the responsibility for repaying descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. A similar share (76%) says the same about businesses and banks that profited from slavery. Slightly smaller shares say that college and universities that benefited from slavery (63%) and the descendants of families who engaged in the slave trade (60%) should have all or most of the responsibility for reparations. Black adults differ slightly on this question by voter status, education and income. Black adults who are registered to vote (84%) are more likely than those who are unregistered (73%) to say the federal government should bear all or most of the responsibility for repaying the descendants of enslaved people. Black registered voters are also more likely than those who are unregistered to say that business and banks that profited from slavery as well as colleges and universities that benefited from slavery should have all or most of the responsibility for repayment. However, Black registered voters are not more likely than those who are unregistered to say that descendants of families who engaged in the slave trade should bear all or most of the responsibility for repayment. Black adults with a bachelor’s degree (87%) and those who have attended college but did not obtain a bachelor’s degree (83%) are more likely than those with a high school diploma or less education (76%) to say that the U.S. federal government should bear all or most of the responsibility for reparations. And Black adults with upper (85%) and middle incomes (84%) are also more likely than those with lower incomes (78%) to say this. Although Black adults do not differ much by education or income on whether businesses or colleges should have all or most of the responsibility for repayment, they have differences on whether descendants of families who engaged in the slave trade should. Black adults with a high school education (62%) and those with some college but no bachelor’s degree (63%) are more likely than those with a bachelor’s degree (52%) to say that descendants of families that engaged in the slave trade should have all or most of the responsibility for repayment. Those with lower and middle incomes (62% and 60%, respectively) are more likely than upper-income Black adults (47%) to say this. Black adults differ by political ideology on two of the sources for repayment. Black conservatives (74%) are more likely than moderates (60%) or liberals (61%) to say that colleges and universities should have all or most of the responsibility for repaying the descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. Black conservatives (68%) are again more likely than moderates or liberals (59% each) to say that descendants of families that engaged in the slave trade should have all or most of the responsibility. Most Black adults say repayment for slavery will not occur in their lifetime Although most Black adults say descendants of slavery should be repaid, very few of those who want reparations say that such repayment is likely in their lifetime. Only 7% of Black adults who support reparations say it is extremely or very likely that descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. will be repaid in their lifetime, and only about one-in-ten (11%) say it is somewhat likely. Roughly eight-in-ten Black adults (82%) say repayment is a little or not at all likely. In fact, a majority of Black adults who support reparations (63%) say repayment for slavery is not at all likely to happen in their lifetime. Age, education, income and party are key points of difference in Black adults’ views on the likelihood of reparations. Black adults ages 65 and older (72%) are the most likely to say reparations would not be paid in their lifetime, compared with 67% of those ages 50 to 64, 59% of those 30 to 49 and 56% under 30. Black adults with a bachelor’s degree (68%) and those who attended college but do not have a bachelor’s degree (65%) are more likely than those with a high school education (57%) to say that repayment for slavery will not occur in their lifetime. And Black adults with upper (70%) and middle incomes (68%) are more likely than those with lower incomes (57%) to say this. Among Black partisans who support reparations, Democrats (65%) are more likely than Republicans (45%) to say reparations would not occur in their lifetime. Conversely, Black Republicans who support reparations (17%) are more likely to say repayment in their lifetime is extremely or very likely than Black Democrats who support reparations (6%). And among Black registered voters, 66% who support reparations say repayment will not occur in their life, compared with 56% of Black adults who are unregistered. | Labor Activism |
A cargo train is seen near the border between the U.S. and Mexico, in Laredo, Texas U.S. June 3, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos JassoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comDETROIT/LOS ANGELES, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh on Wednesday hosted talks in Washington with freight railroad and union officials aimed at heading off a rail shutdown looming as early as Friday that could disrupt cargo shipments and impede food and fuel supplies.With a potential work stoppage affecting freight and passenger rail service, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters aboard Air Force One that "all parties need to stay at the table, bargain in good faith to resolve outstanding issues and come to an agreement.""A shutdown of our freight rail system is (an) unacceptable outcome for our economy and the American people and all parties must work to avoid just that," Jean-Pierre added.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comThe Labor Department in a statement called the meeting hosted by Walsh, which began around 9 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), the latest in efforts by President Joe Biden's administration "to encourage the parties to come to a mutually beneficial agreement."The administration on Tuesday said it was making contingency plans aimed at ensuring deliveries of critical goods in the event of a shutdown while pressing railroads and unions to reach a deal.A shutdown could freeze almost 30% of U.S. cargo shipments, stoke inflation, hinder supplies of food and fuel, cost the U.S. economy about $2 billion per day and cause transportation woes. The U.S. energy sector relies on railroads to move coal, crude oil, ethanol and other products.Railroads including Union Pacific (UNP.N), Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKa.N) BNSF, CSX (CSX.O) and Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) have until a minute after midnight on Friday to reach tentative deals with three hold-out unions representing about 60,000 workers.If agreements are not reached, there could be union strikes or employer lockouts. But the railroads and unions also could agree to stay at the bargaining table, or the Democratic-led U.S. Congress could intervene by extending talks or establishing settlement terms. read more Separately, a union representing about 4,900 machinists, mechanics and maintenance personnel said on Wednesday its members voted to reject a tentative agreement with a committee that represents railroad operators.Food, energy, automotive and retail groups have urged Congress to intervene, saying a rail shutdown could threaten everything from global grain supplies to shipments of goods related to Christmas holiday shopping.A rail stoppage also could increase the time customers wait for vehicles.Stellantis NV (STLA.MI) Chief Executive Carlos Tavares said the automaker is trying to be "flexible" in the way it transports vehicles and parts."The system is quite saturated right now," Tavares told reporters during a videoconference on Wednesday. "If there is an additional roadblock that will just increase the lead time."The Corn Refiners Association and the National Corn Growers Association said in a joint statement that a work stoppage would "cripple U.S. agricultural production and supply chains and exacerbate food price inflation."Railroads originate 24% of U.S. grain shipments, of which approximately half is corn. Grain shipments scheduled for Thursday are being canceled.U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak, which uses tracks maintained by freight railways, is facing growing disruptions. Amtrak said it will cancel trains on seven more long-distance routes on Wednesday after it began canceling trains on four long-distance routes on Tuesday.Unions in the current talks have been offered significant pay increases. Three of 12 unions, representing about half of the 115,000 workers affected by the negotiations, have yet to sign deals. They are grappling with railroads over working conditions.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by David Shepardson and Lisa Baertlein; Additional reporting by Jeff Mason aboard Air Force One and Joe White in Detroit; Editing by Will Dunham and Mark PorterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | Labor Activism |
The union representing Apple Store workers in Australia has called a strike as part of ongoing negotiations for a new pay and conditions deal.
The strike, agreed to yesterday by members of the Retail and Fast Food Workers Union (RAFFWU), will see some staff at Australian Apple Stores stop work for an hour on October 18. Union members will also decline to undertake 15 specific tasks including accepting deliveries, installing screen protectors, meeting with Store bosses, or anything to do with arranging contracts with telecommunications carriers. The full list of banned activities is detailed in this document [PDF].
RAFFWU members employed by Apple unanimously agreed to the actions outlined above as negotiations between the union and the iGiant over a new "enterprise agreement" – an Australian construct that sets working conditions for a particular business – have proven difficult to conclude. Enterprise agreements can be renegotiated periodically, and Apple Australia happily entered that process. The union has proposed [PDF] the agreement offer conditions including base pay of AU$31/hour ($19.40), a weekly healthcare allowance of AU$150 ($94), the right to work from home ten days a year, employer pension fund contributions at a higher rate than is required by law, and pay rises at either five percent annually or 2.5 percent more than the rate of inflation, whichever is higher. Stable rosters are another demand, on grounds that workers with children can't easily arrange care if their working hours change frequently. Extra pay for working late or on weekends is another demand.
Workers also want Apple to provide them with five shirts and pay an AU$1.50 ($0.94) laundry allowance for each shift they work. Lufthansa bans Apple AirTags on checked bags iPhone 14 car crash detection triggered by roller coasters PC shipments are still on the decline – unless you're Apple The strike isn't certain to happen. Workers will only withdraw their labor if Apple submits its own proposal for a new enterprise agreement without first seeking signoff from the union. Apple is within its rights to put its deal directly to workers without union approval.
That condition reflects a core RAFFWU concern: that Apple is not bargaining in good faith and has rushed negotiations. But Apple Store workers are not required to be RAFFWU members, and it's not clear that a majority enjoy that status. It's therefore possible a vote on the enterprise agreement could proceed, and pass, without a majority of union members who work for Apple approving it.
In Apple's most recently reported full financial year, FY21, the company earned $365.8 billion in revenue and net income of $94.7 billion. It's hard to divine from public filings how much of that can be attributed to its business in Australia or to its company-owned retail outlets – but it's probably fair to say the Cupertino-based behemoth can afford the shirts - and probably many of the Union's other demands.
The Register has asked Apple for comment and will update this story if we receive a substantive response. ® | Labor Activism |
04:54 - Source: CNN Business Hundreds of companies are trying the four-day work week. Here's how it's going London CNN Business — It wasn’t hard for Samantha Losey, managing director of Unity, a public relations firm in London, to convince her team to work fewer hours for the same paycheck. But it was an uphill battle to persuade her own board to join the world’s biggest pilot of the four-day work week. “I had to fight very hard for us to do this as a business… nobody was willing. Everyone was very traditionalist,” Losey told CNN Business. The main concern centered on whether a 20% cut to weekly working hours would lead to a drop in output, and cause clients to flee. But after a “very difficult journey” to convince her board, and a rocky start, Losey said her team has hit its stride. She said she is 80% sure everyone will keep the routine after November, when the trial ends. “[My head] would roll like Marie Antoinette’s if I said to this team ‘we’re not doing this anymore’,” she said. Unity is one of 70 companies in the United Kingdom participating in the trial. For six months starting in June, more than 3,300 employees have worked 80% of their usual hours — for the same rate of pay — in exchange for promising to deliver 100% of their usual work. The program is being run by the nonprofit organization 4 Day Week Global; Autonomy, a think tank; and the 4 Day Week UK Campaign, in partnership with researchers from Cambridge University, Oxford University and Boston College. Already, the trial is bearing fruit for workers hungry for more free time. Halfway into the pilot, 95% of companies surveyed by 4 Day Week Global say their productivity levels have either stayed the same or improved, while 86% say they are likely to make the routine permanent. For Gary Conroy, founder and CEO of 5 Squirrels, a skincare product manufacturer on England’s south coast with 13 full-time employees, the new work routine gets “better and better all the time,” he told CNN Business. Some of the benefits were unexpected. “We’ve all lost a lot of weight…we were overweight before,” he said. “[The team has] more time to prepare food, [eat] healthily. Lots of people are going to the gym a lot more.” Four months into the trial, Losey said her clients are happy with their performance, while her team is much more inspired and creative. An internal study at the company found that productivity was up 35% and staff said they were feeling healthier and happier, compared to before the trial. Now, people are scrambling to join the company. “We were dying at the beginning of the year trying to find talent and we were spending money on recruiters left, right and center,” she said. But since Unity joined the program, Losey said she’s “never ever had so many applications,” saving the business a lot of money in recruitment costs. While her board is still skeptical about the impact on the business output, Unity’s clients are “desperate” for the experiment to pay off, she said — so they can convince their bosses to adopt the routine in their own workplaces. “[I] literally had a client today saying… I’m going to take it to the HR department,” Losey added. Juliet Schor, a professor of sociology at Boston College, told CNN Business’ Christine Romans that the four-day work week provides “a major competitive advantage for firms in the labor market.” It also makes for happier and healthier employees, Schor said. That’s especially important given the demands of the pandemic pushed many to simply burn out. “Americans are finding that two days is not enough for the weekend. They can’t get all of their errands and family care [done] and taking their kids to activities, and even just a little bit of time for themselves, and preparing for the work week,” she said. “All of that gets crammed into two days and it’s just not enough.” “The five-day week is just not working for people anymore,” Schor added. Yet a four-day work week is no silver bullet. In June, a Gallup survey of more than 12,000 workers in the United States found that while those working a four-day week reported higher well-being — particularly among those required to work on-site — there was no corresponding uptick in levels of engagement in their jobs. “Having higher engagement comes down to how you’re managed, and just giving someone a four-day work week isn’t necessarily going to mean that you’re well managed and that you’re engaged in your work,” Jim Harter, chief scientist of workplace and well-being at Gallup, told CNN Business. For Losey, adjusting to the new routine was painful, however. She described the first week as “Armageddon,” with too few colleagues available to respond to a client emergency. “I just sat down on the kitchen floor and cried,” she said. Slowly, the team has adapted, and introduced new habits that have made all the difference. Now, internal meetings are capped to 15 minutes, and client meetings to 30 minutes. Emails to colleagues are not allowed to exceed more than a quarter of a day’s total emails. In particular, Losey’s staff swears by a “traffic light” system to reduce distractions in the office. Colleagues have a light on their desk, and set it to green if they are happy to talk, amber if they are busy but available to speak, and red if they do not want to be interrupted. “If [their] button is red, go after someone at your peril,” Losey said. Conroy said he has introduced “deep work time” where, for two hours every morning and two hours every afternoon, his staff ignore emails, calls or instant messages and concentrate on their projects. His team has even started unplugging the office phones, as they were too distracting. Clients were initially bothered, he said, but have since responded by sending more emails. Losey said the risks to the business have been worth seeing through. “After us having had several smooth weeks… it feels like ‘how would we go back?’ How did we work five days?’ It just seems so un-human,” she said. “No one has Monday blues here,” she added. | Labor Activism |
McDonald’s employee Nidia Torres (right) speaks at a rally of fast-food workers and supporters for passage of AB 257, a fast-food worker health and safety bill, on April 16, 2021, in Los Angeles.Mario Tama/Getty Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.Mysheka Ronquillo usually gets up around 6 in the morning to provide in-home care to two clients in Los Angeles. In the afternoon, Ronquillo then doubles back south to her second job at a Carl’s Jr. in Long Beach. After what can be an hours-long trek on public transit, her managers at the fast-food chain sometimes send her home without pay because there’s not enough work to do.
“They look at us like we’re just a number,” Ronquillo says. “We don’t have feelings. We’re not human. We don’t have children and bills.” The indignities of being one of California’s more than 500,000 fast-food workers have led her to organize in support of a new bill that would establish a statewide council tasked with setting minimum conditions and wages for the industry. The legislation has the potential to serve as a model for states seeking to help a wide range of workers at a time when labor law reform is stalled in Congress.
AB 257—the Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act—passed the California Assembly in January. The state Senate’s appropriations committee backed the legislation last week by a 5-2 margin, and supporters are cautiously optimistic that it will soon pass the full senate. What’s unclear is whether Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has remained neutral despite pressure from labor groups and progressive legislators, would sign it. The governor is setting himself up as a potential presidential contender, and any position he takes would signal the kind of campaign he hopes to run. (Newsom’s press office did not respond to a request for comment; a spokesperson told Vox that the “governor will evaluate the bill on its own merits if it reaches his desk.”)
Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents Silicon Valley in Washington and may harbor presidential ambitions of his own, considers the bill his highest priority in California. “This would be the biggest thing we can do right now in the state to stand up for the working class,” Khanna told me, “and the Democratic Party has to clearly be on the side of the working class.” He frames the legislation as a basic matter of providing dignity in the workplace.
AB 257 resembles what is known as “sectoral bargaining,” a process by which workers negotiate collective bargaining agreements that apply to entire industries. The practice has been used to great effect in countries like Germany and Denmark, but it is not permitted under American labor law. Instead, workers here must negotiate contracts that cover individual companies, or parts of companies such as an individual store or warehouse.
The California bill would establish a 13-person council composed of fast-food workers and their advocates, industry representatives, and state officials. Together, they would be responsible for determining minimum wages, along with hours and working conditions, across California’s fast-food industry. The council’s power would be limited by the fact its decisions would have to be backed by the California Secretary of Labor and Workforce Development. The state legislature would also have the power to reject or amend any of the council’s proposals. Still, the bill would give fast-food workers far more power than they have today in California, or any other state.
Another key section would make franchisors like McDonald’s have joint liability. That is a major shift from current law, which generally allows franchisors to avoid being held responsible for conditions at individual locations. In doing so, the bill would force major fast-food companies to pay more attention to how their business model—and its emphasis on keeping costs as low as possible—impacts workers.
In a 2016 law review article, Columbia law professor Kate Andrias foreshadowed how “a new labor law” based on sector-wide negotiating had “the potential to salvage and secure one of labor law’s most fundamental commitments—to help achieve greater equality, both economic and political—in the context of the twenty-first century economy.” Andrias said AB 257 would be a “huge step forward” and “a terrific effort to improve conditions of workers and give them a voice” in their industry within the limits imposed by federal labor law.
California’s efforts follow similar moves in other states, such as a 2019 New York law that allowed the state labor commissioner to create a wage board to reevaluate overtime rules for farmworkers. New York progressives are also trying to advance a new bill that would establish a council responsible for conditions in the nail salon industry. But AB 257 would be the first worker council to cover the fast-food industry, and it would do so in a state that is home to more than 1 in 10 Americans. Not surprisingly, industry groups like the California Restaurant Association are strongly opposed. Jot Condie, the group’s president, has argued it would lead to “increased employee costs and onerous new workplace rules,” while also stripping “franchisees of autonomy.”
The California Department of Finance, which serves as the governor’s fiscal policy adviser, has also opposed the bill. It warns that it would result in “significant ongoing costs” for the state’s Department of Industrial Relations, while also potentially raising “long-term costs across industries.”
So far, Fight For 15 and a Union, a worker movement supported by SEIU, and other labor groups have been able to overcome the opposition. Their efforts have been aided by new data from the Shift Project, a joint venture between academics at Harvard and the University of California, San Francisco, showing that the state’s fast-food workers make $16.21 per hour—about $3 less than other service-sector workers. The study found that 75 percent of those workers had less than two weeks of advance notice for their work schedules and that 90 percent want more predictable schedules. A May survey of California fast-food workers by Fight For 15 found that 85 percent of workers in the industry had experienced wage theft. According to the report, 80 percent of California’s fast-food workers are people of color and more than two-thirds are women.
What the report doesn’t capture is the day-to-day reality of working in the industry. Leticia Reyes, a mother of five who has worked at a Sacramento Jack in the Box for the past 16 years, says she learned about Fight for 15 when one of the group’s organizers approached her while she was taking out the trash at work. She was scared at first, but has since become active in the labor movement.
Last July, Reyes wrote an op-ed for the San Francisco Chronicle detailing what it was like when the air conditioning at her Jack in the Box went out for days during a heat wave. When Reyes and her co-workers complained, her manager blamed menopause. They responded by going on strike.
After more than 15 years with Jack in the Box, she still doesn’t have employer-provided health insurance or paid vacations. When I spoke with Reyes earlier this month, she’d been spending the day lobbying legislators in Sacramento. “This law would give us a voice so that employers have to listen to us,” she said in Spanish. “We’ve fought and fought. We’ve spoken to our managers, but they’ve ignored us. That’s why we’re here pressuring them to support us.”
Ronquillo, the Southern California Carl’s Jr. employee and home care worker, described a situation about six months ago during which a dissatisfied customer started screaming in the restaurant. The person then pulled out a gun and started shooting at the wall, she said. “Nothing ever happened after that,” Ronquillo explained. “There was nothing. You were just expected to keep working.”
Ronquillo hopes that AB 257 would help make workplaces like hers safer, while also providing better pay and more regular hours. “Even when I’m scheduled, I go to work and I just hope that they don’t send me home,” she said. “That’s an everyday thing. I have to worry. So, what do you do? Go get another job? Now I got four jobs. Where is the breaking point?”
Correction, August 18: An earlier version of this story misstated the margin by which the bill passed the assembly. | Labor Activism |
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