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The Kremlin refuses to comment on media reports suggesting high-level US-Russia talks have taken place.The Kremlin has declined to comment on a Wall Street Journal report which claimed the United States held undisclosed talks with top Russian officials on avoiding further escalation in the Ukraine war.
According to the report, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with aides to President Vladimir Putin in the hope of reducing the risk of a broader war or nuclear conflict.
“We have nothing to say about this publication,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.
The newspaper reported that US officials said Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign policy adviser to Putin, and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
Municipal workers remove debris outside a railway administration headquarters damaged in shelling in Donetsk, Ukraine [Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters]
Peskov also declined to comment on a Washington Post report over the weekend that said the US had privately encouraged Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
“We have nothing to say about this publication,” Peskov said.
“Once again, I repeat that there are some truthful reports, but for the most part, there are reports that are pure speculation,” he said, directing journalists to contact the White House or the newspaper itself.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he sees no room for negotiations with Russia, an option he officially ruled out after Russia held illegal referendums that resulted in the “annexation” of four Ukrainian regions in September.
Zelenskyy has said he may negotiate with a new Russian president, whenever one emerges.
The Ukrainian public, having suffered enormously over the past eight months of war, are often outraged whenever foreign figures suggest they accept the conflict’s current state and give in to Russia’s demands. Recently, tech billionaire Elon Musk tweeted a plan to end the war that would give Crimea to Russia and hold United Nations-organised referendums in the four regions Moscow has annexed about whether Russia stays or goes.
Musk was blasted for it, but a lack of negotiations is causing concern among international powers.
“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” an anonymous US official reportedly told the Washington Post. As Tuesday’s US midterm elections get closer, polls show that support for Ukraine among Republican voters is dwindling, meaning that the continuation of aid could be in jeopardy.
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 48 percent of Republicans said the US was doing “too much” to support Ukraine.
With global inflation rates rising, new questions have been raised about the future of the US assistance, which has already reached $18.2bn.
Other nations that were already reluctant to outwardly support Ukraine could also push for more peace talks if the war continues.
Zelenskyy has refused to speak to Russia unless Ukraine regains all its captured territory, but according to the Washington Post, US officials believe the Ukrainian leader will probably be open to negotiations in the winter. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
[1/2] A local Serb walks near the barricade in Rudare, near the northern part of the ethnically-divided town of Mitrovica, Kosovo, December 11, 2022. REUTERS/Florion GogaBRUSSELS, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Kosovo and Serbia must de-escalate a tense situation in the region, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday, after Serb protesters in northern Kosovo blocked main roads for a third day on Monday.In recent weeks Serbs in northern Kosovo have responded with violent resistance to moves by Pristina that they see as anti-Serb."I know the two parts are willing to de-escalate and I strongly call on the two of them to do it," Borrell said as he arrived at a meeting of EU foreign ministers. "They have to come back to the dialogue, they have to overcome this tendency to fighting in the street."The latest protests were triggered by the arrest of a former police officer on Saturday. He was part of a mass resignation of Serbs from the force last month, after Pristina said it would require Serbs to scrap Serbian licence plates dating to before the 1998-99 Kosovo War that led to independence.For a third day on Monday, trucks and other heavy-duty vehicles blocked several main roads leading to two border crossings with Serbia. Both crossings were closed to traffic.Polish troops, part of the NATO peacekeeping mission, were monitoring one of the six road blocks where trucks filled with gravel were parked in the village of Rudare close to the town of Mitrovica.In the ethnically mixed area, police carrying automatic rifles were patrolling and guarding an election office where last week Serb protesters attacked police and smashed some of the building's windows.Kosovo had planned to hold local elections next Sunday in four municipalities after their mayors quit, but President Vjosa Osmani postponed the votes until April citing security concerns.EULEX, the European Union mission tasked with patrolling northern Kosovo, said a stun grenade was thrown at one of its armoured vehicles on Saturday evening, but no one was injured.Reporting by Sabine Siebold, Bart Meijer, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Fatos Bytyci in Mitrovica; Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing by Sudip Kar-GuptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
KYIV, Ukraine -- The death toll from a weekend Russian missile strike on an apartment building in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro has risen to 40, authorities said Monday, as Western analysts pointed to indications the Kremlin was preparing for a drawn-out war in Ukraine after almost 11 months of fighting.About 1,700 people lived in the multi-story building, and search and rescue crews have worked nonstop since Saturday's strike to locate victims and survivors in the wreckage. The regional administration said 39 people have been rescued so far and 30 more remained missing. Authorities said at least 75 were wounded.The reported death toll made it the deadliest single attack on Ukrainian civilians since before the summer, according to The Associated Press-Frontline War Crimes Watch project. Residents said the apartment tower did not house any military facilities.The European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called the strike, and others like it, "inhumane aggression" because it directly targeted civilians. "There will be no impunity for these crimes," he said in a tweet Sunday.Asked about the strike Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian military doesn't target residential buildings and suggested the Dnipro building was hit as a result of Ukrainian air defense actions.The strike on the building came amid a wider barrage of Russian cruise missiles across Ukraine. The Ukrainian military said Sunday that it did not have the means to intercept the type of Russian missile that hit the residential building in Dnipro.Fierce fighting continued to rage Monday in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk province, where military analysts have said both sides are likely suffering heavy troop casualties. No independent verification of developments was possible.Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk province make up the Donbas, an expansive industrial region bordering Russia that Russian President Vladimir Putin identified as a focus from the war's outset. Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Kyiv's forces there since 2014.RELATED: Woman's solar-powered lanterns bring light to Ukraine facing blackouts from Russian attacksThe Russian and Belarusian air forces began a joint exercise Monday in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and served as a staging ground for Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The drills are set to run through Feb. 1, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said. Russia has sent its warplanes to Belarus for the drills.The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, reported signs of the Kremlin taking steps to turn its Ukraine invasion into "a major conventional war" after months of embarrassing military reversals.What Moscow calls "a special military operation" aimed to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within weeks and to install a Kremlin-friendly regime there, but Russian forces ultimately withdrew from around Kyiv, the think tank said. Then came a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in recent months before the onset of winter slowed military advances."The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine's current string of operational successes," the Institute for the Study of War said in a report late Sunday.It noted reports indicating the Russian military command was in "serious preparations" for an expanded mobilization effort, conserving mobilized personnel for future use, while seeking to boost military industrial production and reshuffling its command structure.That means Ukraine's Western allies "will need to continue supporting Ukraine in the long run," the think tank said.NATO member nations have sought in recent days to reassure Ukraine that they will stay the course. The United Kingdom has pledged tanks and the U.S. military's new, expanded combat training of Ukrainian forces began in Germany on Sunday.Other developments on Monday:- Russian forces shelled the city of Kherson and the Kherson region, killing three people and wounding 14 others over the last 24 hours, regional Gov. Yaroslav Yanushevych said. In the city of Kherson, the shelling damaged a hospital, a children disability center, a shipyard, critical infrastructure and apartment buildings.- Russian forces struck the city of Zaporizhzhia, damaging industrial infrastructure and wounding five people, two of them children, the deputy head of Ukraine's presidential office Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported.- Russian air defenses downed seven drones Monday over the Black Sea near the port of Sevastopol in annexed Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed head of Sevastopol, reported.The video in the player above is from an earlier report.Copyright © 2023 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, The wreckage of a Kyiv block of flats hit by a Russian droneThe US says it agrees with Western allies that Iran's supply of explosive drones to Russia violates UN sanctions.Kyiv was struck by so-called "kamikaze" drones on Monday, unleashed by Russia but believed to be Iranian-made.The US agrees with the French and British assessment that the drones violate UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the US State Department said.That resolution, linked to Iran's nuclear accord, bars Iranian transfers of certain military technologies.Ukraine has identified the drones - or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - as Iranian Shahed-136 weapons. They are called kamikaze drones after the Japanese fighter pilots who flew suicide missions in World War Two."It is our belief that these UAVs that were transferred from Iran to Russia and used by Russia in Ukraine are among the weapons that would remain embargoed under 2231," said Vedant Patel of the state department. Iran denies supplying them to Russia, but Mr Patel said the US "exposed publicly that Russia has received drones from Iran, that this was part of Russia's plan to import hundreds of Iranian UAVs of various types". He added that there was "extensive proof" of Russia's use of them in Ukraine.Critical infrastructure was hit on Monday in Ukraine's Kyiv, Dnipro and Sumy regions, with electricity cut in hundreds of towns and villages, the Kyiv government said. At least eight people were killed - four in Kyiv and four in Sumy. The US said it would "hold [Russia} accountable for its war crimes."Mr Patel said the deepening alliance between Russia and Iran was something the whole world should see as a threat. Russia and Iran have provided key military support for President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war."Anyone doing business with Iran, that can have any link to UAVs or ballistic missile developments or the flow of arms from Iran to Russia, should be very careful and do their due diligence. The US will not hesitate to use sanctions," Mr Patel warned.Monday's attack came a week after Russia fired dozens of missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, many of them targeting energy infrastructure. Western analysts believe the Iranian weapon is helping Russia to keep up long-range attacks despite a shortage of precision missiles.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says the EU is also "gathering evidence" on the Iranian drones and is ready to act - implying a possible intensification of sanctions.Negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran are currently stalled. Under the deal with Western powers, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions.What are 'kamikaze drones'?Believed to include an Iranian-supplied weapon called the Shahed-136These drones loiter above a target before attackingPacked with explosives which detonate upon impact, destroying the droneOften sent in waves and difficult to spot on radarThe US said Iran planned to send hundreds to Russia, costing just $20,000 (£17,800) eachUkraine has also used 'kamikaze drones' - including the US-made Switchblade model | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will face off on Thursday with his Ukrainian and Western counterparts, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, when the United Nations Security Council meets over atrocities committed in Ukraine.U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan will brief the 15-member body, which is meeting during the annual gathering of world leaders for the U.N. General Assembly.Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 as the Security Council met in New York to discuss Western concerns that Moscow was planning such a move.“A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the assembly on Wednesday in a recorded video. “The crime was committed against the lives of our people. The crime was committed against the dignity of our women and men,” he said.Ukraine, the United States and others have accused Russia of war crimes in Ukraine. Russia denies targeting civilians during what it calls its “special military operation,” describing accusations of human rights abuses as a smear campaign.The Security Council meets a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of Russians to fight in Ukraine, moved to annex swaths of Ukrainian territory and threatened to use nuclear weapons.The council has been unable to take any meaningful action on Ukraine because Russia is a permanent veto-wielding member along with the United States, France, Britain and China. The meeting on Thursday will be at least the 20th time the Security Council has met on Ukraine this year.After Guterres and Khan brief, the 15 council members will speak, followed by Ukraine, several European countries, Belarus and European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.In July, Lavrov walked out of a meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers in Indonesia when he was faced with calls for an end to the war and criticism over the conflict fueling a global food crisis. Lavrov denounced the West for “frenzied criticism."While it was unlikely Russia’s seat at the U.N. Security Council would be left empty during the meeting, it was unclear how long Lavrov might stay in the chamber.Ukraine’s chief war crimes prosecutor told Reuters last month his office is investigating almost 26,000 suspected war crimes cases committed since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion and has charged 135 people.Ukrainian officials said last week they had found hundreds of bodies, some with their hands tied behind their backs, buried in territory near the northeastern town if Izium recaptured from Russian forces, in what Zelenskiy called proof of war crimes by the invaders.The head of the pro-Russian administration, which abandoned the area a week earlier, accused Ukrainians of staging the atrocities in Izium.This week, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 5,916 civilians killed and 8,616 injured in Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russia appears to be eyeing up U.S.-trained troops in Afghanistan to fight in Ukraine according to reports.U.S. President Joe Biden has faced repeated criticism for withdrawing forces from Afghanistan after years of fighting in the country.The hasty evacuation resulted in troops and equipment being left behind following the collapse of the Afghan government and a rapid takeover by the Taliban.This meant that Afghan soldiers, who fought alongside the Americans and were trained by them, were left behind in the now turbulent nation.
John Etter of the U.S. Army's 130th Engineer Brigade salutes a graduating Afghan National Army soldier while participating in a basic training graduation ceremony on March 18, 2014 in Kabul, Afghanistan. A military source has said offers to fight for Russia against Ukraine may tempt some Afghans. Getty
According to a report by the publication Foreign Policy (FP), which spoke to former officials and commandos, Russia is now attempting to recruit Afghan commandos.A former senior Afghan security official, who requested anonymity when speaking to the publication, said their integration into the Russian military in Ukraine would be "a game-changer."Another former official, who was an Afghan commando officer, said he believed that Russia's Wagner Group organization was behind the recruitment push."I am telling you [the recruiters] are Wagner Group. They are gathering people from all over," the source said according to the report. "The only entity that recruits foreign troops [for Russia] are Wagner Group, not their army."It's not an assumption. It's a known fact. They'd be better used by Western allies to fight alongside Ukrainians [though]."They don't want to fight for the Russians; the Russians are the enemy. But what else are they going to do?" The Soviet Union was accused of war crimes and attacks against civilians during the nine year Soviet-Afghan war during the 1980s.Some commandos have said they have been contacted on WhatsApp and the Signal messaging app, where they were made offers to fight for Russia.Another military source that spoke to FP highlighted why such offers may be appealing, despite the historic bad blood between Afghanistan and Russia."They have no country, no jobs, no future. They have nothing to lose," the source said of the commandos, according to the report."It's not difficult. They are waiting for work for $3 to $4 a day in Pakistan or Iran or $10 a day in Turkey, and if Wagner or any other intelligence services come to a guy and offers $1,000 to be a fighting man again, they won't reject it."And if you find one guy to recruit, he can get half his old unit to join up because they are like brothers, and pretty soon, you've got a whole platoon."Newsweek has contacted Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
SummaryUkraine demands restoration of territory, compensationMoscow blames Kyiv for failure of talksU.S. national security adviser has held talks with RussiansWashington says it will support Ukraine, whoever wins U.S. voteKYIV, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Ukraine doubled down on its tough stance on negotiations with Russia on Tuesday, saying talks could only resume once the Kremlin relinquishes all Ukrainian territory and that Kyiv would fight on even if it is "stabbed in the back" by its allies.The remarks come days after a U.S. media report that Washington had encouraged Kyiv to signal willingness for talks, and seemed aimed at rebuffing such pressure, at a time when U.S. mid-term elections could test Western support for Ukraine.In an overnight address before he was due to address world leaders at a climate summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia must be pushed into "genuine" negotiations.Zelenskiy said Ukraine had repeatedly proposed such talks, but "we always received insane Russian responses with new terrorist attacks, shelling or blackmail"."Once again - restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. Charter, compensation for all damages caused by the war, punishment of every war criminal and guarantees that this will not happen again. These are completely understandable conditions."Since Russia announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory at the end of September, Zelenskiy has decreed that Kyiv would never negotiate with Moscow as long as Vladimir Putin remains Russian president. Kyiv officials have repeated that position in recent days, while saying that Kyiv would be willing to negotiate with Putin's future successor."Negotiating with Putin would mean giving up, and we would never give him this gift," Zelenskiy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with Italy's La Repubblica newspaper published on Tuesday.Dialogue would be possible only once Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory, Podolyak said."We have no choice. Russia has invaded us with mobile crematoria and half a million body bags. If we stop defending ourselves, we will cease to exist. Literally. Physically. We will continue to fight even if we are stabbed in the back," he said.Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's Security Council, also tweeted that restoration of Ukraine's borders was a pre-condition for talks, and that Kyiv needed the "guarantee" of modern air defences, aircraft, tanks and long-range missiles.On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeated Moscow's position that it is open to talks but that Kyiv was refusing them. Moscow has repeatedly said it will not negotiate over territory it claims to have annexed from Ukraine.OFFENSIVEUkrainian forces have been on the offensive in recent months, while Russia is regrouping to defend areas of Ukraine it still occupies, having called up hundreds of thousands of reservists over the past month.[1/10] Smoke rises behind vessels on the Dnipro River during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the Russia-controlled city of Kherson, Ukraine July 24, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander ErmochenkoRussia has been evacuating civilians from occupied areas, especially from southern Ukraine's Kherson region, in an operation that Kyiv says includes forced deportations, a war crime. Moscow says it is taking people to safety.The next big battle is expected to be over a Russian-controlled pocket of land on the west bank of the Dnipro River, which includes Kherson city, the only regional capital Russia has captured since its invasion in February.Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday Russia was preparing new fortified lines of defence inside territory it controls "to forestall any rapid Ukrainian advances in the event of breakthroughs".This includes installing concrete barriers known as "dragon's teeth" to stop tanks. It said these were being put in place around Russian-occupied Mariupol in the south to help safeguard Russia's "land bridge" to occupied Crimea, a strategic objective, even if Moscow loses other territory.On Monday, a source confirmed that White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had held talks with Russian officials to avert escalation of the conflict, first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The Kremlin has declined to comment.The White House did not deny the talks but says it will not make diplomatic moves about Ukraine without Kyiv's involvement."We reserve the right to speak directly at senior levels about issues of concern to the United States. That has happened over the course of the past few months. Our conversations have focused only on ... risk reduction and the U.S.-Russia relationship," White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said.The United States is holding mid-term elections for Congress on Tuesday. Although most candidates from both parties support Ukraine, some right-wing Republican candidates have criticised the cost of U.S. military aid.White House spokesperson Jean-Pierre said U.S. support for Ukraine would be "unflinching and unwavering" regardless of the outcome of Tuesday's vote.Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign policy committee, said a Republican victory "will not in any way impact on support for Ukraine"."We highly value the fact that we have bipartisan support," he said. "Whoever wins these elections, this will not have any negative influence. On the contrary, we expect that support for Ukraine will increase."On Monday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Putin ally who heads the Wagner private military company fighting in Ukraine, acknowledged for the first time that Russia had intervened in U.S. elections in the past, and said it would do so again."We have interfered, we are interfering and we will continue to interfere," he said on Facebook.U.S. prosecutors accuse Prigozhin of leading a Russian internet "troll farm" that helped back former president Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential election. Trump denies his campaign coordinated with the Russians.Reporting by Reuters bureaux
Writing by Peter Graff
Editing by Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine is set to be top of the agenda as Foreign Secretary James Cleverly begins a two-day trip to the US and Canada. Speaking ahead of his departure, Mr Cleverly said: "The UK, US and Canada always have each other's backs when it counts, protecting the rules-based order for nearly 80 years."
He continued: "Today we stand united against Putin's illegal war, and we will continue to use our uniquely strong defence and security ties to ensure that, in the end, the Ukrainian people will win."He will deliver a keynote speech at Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies, at which he is set to outline Britain's foreign policy priorities before talks with his US counterpart Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The two will then hold a joint news conference.On Monday, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that British tanks, artillery pieces and armoured vehicles are to be sent to Ukraine.
Mr Cleverly is set to use this British pledge to persuade the Americans and the Canadians to follow the UK's lead. He is expected to stress the need for the right battlefield tools to be given to the Ukrainians quickly to allow them to win the war.The Americans have delivered billions of dollars worth of weaponry to Ukraine over the past 11 months, but only in carefully managed tranches with limited capability for fear of provoking Russia. Image: James Cleverly and Anthony Blinken met in New York in September 2022 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he is committed to the acceleration of the UK's diplomatic and military assistance to Ukraine as Russia prepares to launch a new offensive.Top members of President Biden's team are in the Ukrainian capital this week for meetings with President Zelenskyy. Antony Blinken's deputy Wendy Sherman, Dr. Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defence for policy and Jon Finer, principal deputy national security adviser, are all in Kyiv after meetings in Germany and Poland where they discussed continued US support for Ukraine.Beyond Ukraine, the British government hopes the elusive UK-US trade deal will be discussed with the Americans in Washington.Read more from around Sky NewsMet Police reviews complaints against staff in wake of David Carrick caseFather arrested on live TV after toddler seen waving handgun outside apartmentPM set to toughen up Online Safety Bill after pressure from Tory rebelsIn Toronto, on Wednesday, Mr Cleverly is set to discuss British efforts to become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a key free trade agreement between 11 countries including Canada.Britain has reached the final phase of CPTPP accession, but disagreements remain over levels of market access the existing members would have to Britain. Spreaker Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this. Open Privacy Options Click to subscribe to Ukraine War Diaries wherever you get your podcastsNorthern Ireland is also set to feature in discussions between Mr Cleverly and Mr Blinken. As speculation mounts that a EU-UK compromise over the Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol may be close, the UK will seek the support of the US.President Biden has taken a close interest in negotiations over Northern Ireland and has made clear that the UK's handling of the issue could impact the chances of a US-UK trade deal. Cleverly has a tricky job This is the most important trip for James Cleverly since he became foreign secretary last year. He was appointed by Liz Truss but survived that chaos and was retained by Rishi Sunak. He's quickly built a reputation for impressive diplomacy. Comfortable in his own skin and outwardly confident with his brief, he is popular within the Foreign Office and, it seems, liked by his counterparts in foreign capitals. But as Britain's top diplomat, he has a tricky job. The UK's global position is diminished. The world has looked at usually stable Britain in surprise as our politics has faltered and our economy sputters. Cleverly will be pushing progress on the illusive US-UK trade deal and trying to reassure the Americans that Britain is now close to a workable solution for Northern Ireland. Biden, with his Irish roots, is watching closely. The shadow of Brexit is long. But Ukraine will be the thrust for Cleverly. Rishi Sunak's government is trying to fill the hole left by Boris Johnson's departure. Johnson's forthright stance on the defence of Ukraine was admired across Western nations. There will be an attempt on this trip to show clear British leadership and initiative to encourage deeper, faster international alignment over Ukraine. We're told that Cleverly will attempt to persuade his American and Canadian counterparts that now is the time to give Ukraine the tools it needs to win the war, not just to hold the frontline. The British consignment of tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles will do little to change the battlefield picture on their own. Indeed, prepare for the prized Russian propaganda image of a Challenger 2 burned and destroyed. The British hope is that their tank package will incentivise other nations to follow with their own equipment. Cleverly's message will be: arm Ukraine properly now and this can be over sooner rather than later with a weakened Russia forced to negotiate. The Americans have sent huge quantities of lethal equipment to Ukraine changing the course of the war. But they've not yet sent tanks, mechanized artillery or armoured vehicles which could repel Russian advances. The fear, always, has been Putin's reaction to the full Western arming of Ukraine. And so, little by little, America has increased what it has been prepared to deliver. But Biden is under growing domestic congressional pressure to justify his Ukraine spending. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers want audits and proof that America is backing a winner not simply prolonging the conflict and the bloodshed. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is wading deeper into foreign policy as he prepares for a likely 2024 presidential run, signaling an effort to broaden his leadership chops beyond the culture war issues that he built a national reputation on.
During an appearance on “Fox & Friends” on Monday, the Florida governor and prospective White House contender blasted the Biden administration’s aid to Ukraine as a “blank-check policy” and played down the threat that Moscow poses to NATO member countries in Europe.
“They have effectively a blank-check policy with no clear strategic objective identified,” DeSantis said. “These things can escalate. And I don’t think it’s in our interest to be getting into a proxy war with China getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea.”
It’s a topic that DeSantis has only addressed sparingly in the past, but one that could come up in a 2024 Republican primary contest that is expected to feature a slew of candidates with prior experience on the international stage — including former President Trump, whose “America First” framework largely redefined the GOP’s approach to foreign policy.
“Donald Trump changed the entire world view of the Republican Party when it comes to international affairs and foreign relations,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist and former congressional candidate. “So to an extent, Republican voters are going to want to hear where these other candidates stand; make sure they’re in step.”
Foreign policy isn’t typically seen as major drivers of campaigns, and polls regularly show issues like inflation and immigration topping the list of voters’ concerns. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that just 4 percent of voters consider Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to be the most urgent issue facing the U.S.
But presidential contests are also multifaceted affairs in which candidates are expected to show off their leadership abilities on a variety of fronts, and the list of foreign policy challenges facing the country is long — the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising tensions with China and Russia’s decision on Tuesday to suspend the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the U.S., to name a few.
What’s more, several current and prospective contenders for the GOP’s 2024 nomination have their own foreign policy records to lean on.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), who last week became the first Republican to challenge Trump for the GOP nod, served as the face of the former president’s foreign policy agenda during her tenure as his ambassador to the United Nations. Another potential candidate, Mike Pompeo, spent nearly three years as secretary of State.
Then there’s Trump himself, whose approach to international affairs helped reshape GOP orthodoxy on everything from free trade to longstanding U.S. military alliances. Earlier this month, Trump went after DeSantis directly, dubbing him a “globalist” and escalating a long-simmering feud with the Florida governor.
That line of attack could play a central role in Trump’s campaign. In a video posted online on Tuesday, the former president decried his rivals as “candidates of war,” and labeled himself a peacemaker.
“Take a look at the globalist warmonger donors backing our opponents. That’s because they’re candidates of war,” he said. “I am the President who delivers peace, and it’s peace through strength.”
DeSantis has at least some experience in the foreign policy sphere. During his three terms in Congress, he served on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
And his work as governor has occasionally crossed over into the international realm. Last fall, for instance, he called for state lawmakers to ban the governments of several “countries of concern,” including China, Russia and Iran, from purchasing agricultural land and land near military bases in Florida.
One Republican donor who has given money to DeSantis in the past said that the Florida governor needs to start more aggressively pitching his foreign affairs credentials to a larger audience.
“In what world can you call Ron DeSantis a globalist? I mean, look at his record on China. Look what he just said about Russia and Ukraine,” the donor said.
“The other part of this, though, is that he hasn’t had a lot of opportunities to talk about these big foreign policy issues, because he’s busy being governor,” the person continued. “And I think what you’re seeing now is kind of an introduction — ‘Hey, I’m going to put America first.’ ”
For now, DeSantis appears less concerned with firing back at Trump than going after President Biden. Asked during his appearance on “Fox & Friends” about the president’s surprise visit to Kyiv this week, DeSantis redirected the conversation to some of his typical grievances.
“We’ve had millions and millions of people pour in, tens of thousands of Americans dead because of fentanyl and then, of course, we just suffered a national humiliation of having China fly a spy balloon clear across the continental United States,” DeSantis said. “We have a lot of problems accumulating here in our own country that he is neglecting.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Over the past 20 months, the Biden administration has repeatedly demonstrated that they would rather go back to the Obama foreign policy of leading from behind than lead from the front with strength. This was on full display this week when the Chinese Communist Party, under Xi Jinping, made it clear that they are determined to "reunify" with Taiwan on a much faster timeline, and potentially by military force. What was the Biden administration’s response? They simply shrugged it off and moved on. What didn’t happen was an announcement of real and concrete steps to counter the CCP’s ambitions. The Biden administration compounds this error by sending dangerous signals to China and our other adversaries by letting our nation’s military readiness slip to dangerous levels. This week the Heritage Foundation released its Index of Military Strength for 2023, assessing our aggregate military strength as "weak." This does not mean our military is weak – it remains the strongest in the world. Rather, the report’s goal is to assess how well our military can defend and secure our national interests. A rating of ‘weak’ means we cannot effectively meet our security objectives, or credibly deter our adversaries. This report should be a much-needed wake-up call, as rebuilding our military to meet America’s security needs is both a near and long-term challenge. BLINKEN SAYS CHINA MOVING ON 'MUCH FASTER TIMELINE' TO TAKE TAIWANThere is much we can be doing to meet our long-term goals. In the Reagan years, when our military strength was powerful enough to face down and deter the Soviet Union, we spent more than 5% of our GDP each year on defense. President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose during a meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on Feb. 4, 2022. (Photo by Alexei DruzhininTASS via Getty Images)Today, we only spend about 3%, which isn’t sufficient to meet our readiness needs. We must return to 5% spending levels if we wish to face down and deter the Chinese Communist Party, as well as the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin. That doesn’t mean raising taxes; it means reprioritizing our federal spending so our government can adequately ‘provide for the common defense;’ the first charge of our Constitution. Chinese President Xi Jinping made it clear he plans to reunify with Taiwan, whether Taiwan wants it or not. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)Our weapons development, too, needs to be reworked. Each branch of service is plagued with procurement disasters, often wrought by political forces and profit motives that care little for actually building and deploying decisive weapons. This process must more directly involve the armed services – who will use the weapons – and sidestep the bloated Pentagon bureaucracy. But there are many near-term problems our military faces as well, and these issues are just as urgent to fix. Across every branch of our armed services, America’s military faces a recruitment crisis. The Army – in which I served during the final years of the Cold War -- fell about 15,000 soldiers short of its recruitment goal. The Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps expect to either miss or just hit their recruitment goals, but only by dipping into their delayed-entry lists. That means these branches will have more difficulty hitting their numbers in the years ahead. What can account for this recruitment issue? The Biden administration’s heavy-handed COVID-19 policies have been a major factor. Over 1,700 sailors have been discharged from the Navy for refusing to comply with Biden’s mandatory vaccine policy, enacted in August 2021, and thousands more could be discharged soon. The Army National Guard is preparing to discharge 14,000 soldiers over the next two years. Even though President Joe Biden declared that "the pandemic is over" over a month ago, his heavy-handed COVID-19 mandates for the military remain in place. These have derailed the service careers of thousands of brave men and women, and threaten to derail thousands more. CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTERThen, of course, there are the woke policies and instruction being instituted throughout our armed forces at the direction of Biden and his political underlings at the Pentagon. Air Force cadets are being taught to avoid committing "microaggressions" by replacing terms such as "you guys," "terrorists," and "mom and dad" with terms that have been deemed "less offensive." Bright, brave young men and women sign up to fight for and defend their country, and instead find themselves lectured about race and gender identity and pronouns. This nonsense has no place in our military, but it is now prioritized over military readiness and excellence. I can assure you it has no place in the forces of Russia and China. To push back against this trend, I’ve launched a nationwide campaign to stop spread of readiness-killing wokeness in our military. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPThe greatest and surest check on the CCP’s ambitions, or Putin’s aggression, is the strength of the United States military. If we allow our armed forces to stagnate, if we cannot meet the challenges posed by our adversaries, then we lose our ability to deter them. Our lack of readiness and strength under Biden puts Americans and the world at risk of catastrophic war and devastating conflict. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM MIKE POMPEO Mike Pompeo is a Fox News contributor, former U.S. secretary of State, and former director of the Central Intelligence Agency. He is a distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
AP Photo/Hussein Malla A Middle East Airlines jet is shown at the Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 1, 2022. Earlier this year, Israel attacked the Damascus airport after Iran transferred missiles and weapons to Damascus on civilian flights. Israel routinely strikes Iran’s weapons transfers by ground and precision missile factories in Syria, but commercial flights to a civilian airport have not been a primary path for these weapons deliveries. On the ground, the most direct path from Iran to its Hezbollah and Syrian proxies is through the Iraq-Syria border near Al-Tanf, where a small American military presence monitors Islamic State activity and acts as a bulwark against Iranian weapons transfers. Iran is forced to take less direct routes to transfer its arms, including through the border town of Abu Kamel, which is monitored by Israeli intelligence in the deadly cat-and-mouse game between Iran and Israel. Now, Beirut International Airport is on Israel’s radar, because Iran has flown weapons on civilian flights to supply arms to its Hezbollah proxy. Hezbollah controls Beirut airport and the Lebanese government. Iran also has positioned precision weapons factories near the Beirut airport and purposely put military facilities and weapons next to civilian areas. An example is an open-source revelation by the Israeli research organization Alma, showing aerial photographs of weapons factories next to a gas company and a school in Lebanon’s Ebba and Jnah neighborhoods. Using human shields is a war crime, a tactic also employed by Hamas against Israel in Gaza. Targeting the Beirut airport could raise the hackles of the Biden administration and the European Union, fearing that the fragile Lebanese government will be thrown into further chaos. However, the worry that an Israeli attack on the Beirut airport may ignite a larger confrontation between Israel and Iran’s proxies is of most concern. As Israel’s Channel 12 reported, “[Israeli] strikes on Hezbollah’s home turf could lead to reprisals by the terror group, which has significant firepower pointed at Israel, creating a dilemma for Jerusalem.” The Biden administration must shift its diplomatic efforts into high gear to see if they still have influence with the other minority populations of Syria — the Sunnis, Druze and Christians — who don’t want Lebanon again turned into a battlefield. With Hezbollah’s approval, the U.S. mediated a maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel last month that was thought to be an Israeli concession to avoid a confrontation with Hezbollah over disputed gas fields. That agreement and its temporary ceasefire could be endangered if Israel strikes Beirut airport. Hezbollah took a pounding in 2006 in the Second Lebanon War, from which it took years to recover, and they may not be anxious or ready for another fight. Hezbollah lauds itself as the only effective force against the Israelis, having neutered the Lebanese Armed Forces. But Hezbollah is concerned that the Lebanese people will blame them for Israeli strikes against civilian infrastructure next to Hezbollah military facilities, potentially weakening their dominance over the government. An Israeli strike in Lebanon would bring the usual European condemnation of the civilian casualties made unavoidable by Iran’s embedding military assets in civilian areas. But Israel would argue it had no choice but to strike, if the weapons shipments included precision-guided missiles. For its part, Hezbollah has limited autonomy as it follows the instructions of its patron and master in Tehran. The Lebanese Shiites of Hezbollah follow the orders of Iran’s Supreme Leader under the principle of the guardianship of the jurist, Wilayat al-Faqih. In other words, it is up to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to determine how high they want to raise the temperature with Israel. Many believe Iran is not ready to activate Hezbollah fully, but another theory is that they might welcome a Lebanese war to deflect attention from the ongoing protests in Iran’s streets. The battle between Israel and Iran in Lebanon and Syria is called the “War Between the Wars.” Iran aims to strengthen Hezbollah, create a permanent Iranian presence in Syria, and then destabilize Jordan and the West Bank to encircle Israel in a “ring of fire.” Iran wants to combine this with possession of nuclear weapons to checkmate Israel. What is certain is that Israel, under any government, right or left, will not allow Iran to establish a permanent presence in Syria and will do what it takes to slow the transfer of game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian militias dominating the Iraqi army are also under the watchful eye of Israel and periodically attacked in Iraqi territory. It would behoove the Biden administration not to wait until it is too late and to use its highest-ranking diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to persuade Iran to stop using the Beirut airport for weapons transfers. Assuming Iran gave its approval to Hezbollah for the maritime deal, diplomacy might accomplish this. A new confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah on a front that has been quiet since 2006 could upend the Middle East. Let’s hope the Biden administration understands the high stakes. Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network. He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides. He is the senior security editor for the Jerusalem Report. Follow him on Twitter @MepinOrg. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Serbian president said he was under ‘no illusion’ that NATO would agree to his request amid tension in northern Kosovo.Serbia will ask NATO peacekeepers to let it deploy Serbian military and police to volatile northern Kosovo, although it believes there is no chance of the request being approved, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has said.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned last month of the potential for “escalation and violence” after emergency talks between Kosovo and Serbia failed to resolve their long-running dispute over car licence plates used by the ethnic Serb minority in Kosovo.
The proposal by Belgrade to send its forces to the former Serbian province — and now independent Kosovo — could escalate already seething tensions in the Balkan states.
Vucic told a news conference on Saturday in Belgrade that he would make the request to deploy Serbian forces in a letter to the commander of NATO’s KFOR mission, the alliance’s peacekeeping force in Kosovo.
“We will request from the KFOR commander to ensure the deployment of army and police personnel of the Republic of Serbia to the territory of Kosovo and Metohija,” Vucic said, adding that he had “no illusions” that the request would be accepted.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic [File: Bernadett Szabo/Reuters]
The request to NATO would be the first time Belgrade has sought to deploy troops in Kosovo under the provisions of a UN Security Council resolution which ended a 1998-1999 war and in which NATO interceded against Serbia to protect Albanian-majority Kosovo.
The resolution said Serbia could deploy up to 1,000 military, police and customs officials to Orthodox Christian religious sites, areas with Serb majorities and border crossings, if such a deployment is approved by KFOR’s commander. At the time of the resolution, Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, was still recognised as part of Serbia.
Belgrade, supported by Russia and China, has refused to recognise Kosovo’s statehood.
NATO still has about 3,700 peacekeepers stationed in the former Serbian province to prevent violence between ethnic Albanians and Serbs. ‘Destabilise the region’
Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s office said the move by Serbia would be “an act of aggression” and an indication of “Serbia’s tendencies to destabilise the region”.
Vucic’s remarks come after a spate of incidents and growing tension between Kosovo authorities and Kosovo Serbs who constitute a majority in northern areas of Kosovo.
On Saturday, Kosovo Serbs exchanged gunfire with police officers in the volatile north, and Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani announced that local elections scheduled for December 18 in the area would be delayed until next year.
The gunfire broke out after Serbs blocked main roads in the northern region to protest against the arrest of a former member of the Kosovo police who quit his post last month along with other ethnic Serb officials.
Authorities in Pristina said former policeman Dejan Pantic was arrested for allegedly attacking election commission offices, police officers and election officials on Tuesday.
Serb mayors in northern Kosovo municipalities, along with local judges and some 600 police officers, resigned last month in protest over a government decision to replace Belgrade-issued car license plates with ones issued by Pristina.
Police officers remove their uniforms in the town of Zvecan, Kosovo, in November 2022 as members of Kosovo’s ethnic Serb minority resigned en masse from their posts to protest the dismissal of a senior Serb police officer who did not respect the Kosovo government’s decision to change vehicle license plates [File: Bojan Slavkovic/AP Photo]
Police said the blockade on Saturday halted traffic, and they were forced to close two border crossings between Kosovo and Serbia. Later, they said they came under fire in several locations close to a lake bordering Serbia. There were no immediate reports of injuries.
In an effort to defuse tensions, Kosovar President Osmani announced the postponement until April 23 of local elections in the northern municipalities of Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Zvecan and Leposavic.
The EU has also warned both Serbia and Kosovo to resolve their disputes peacefully and to normalise relations if they want to be considered eligible for membership in the bloc. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
At the height of Russia’s first, covert invasion of eastern Ukraine, in summer 2014, a group of senior Russian officials gathered at the defence ministry’s headquarters, an imposing Stalin-era building on the banks of the Moskva River.They were there to meet Yevgeny Prigozhin, a middle-aged man with a shaven head and a coarse tone whom many in the room knew only as the person responsible for army catering contracts.Now, Prigozhin had a different kind of demand. He wanted land from the defence ministry that he could use for the training of “volunteers” who would have no official links to the Russian army but could still be used to fight Russia’s wars.Many in the ministry did not like Prigozhin’s manner, but he made it clear that this was no ordinary request. “The orders come from Papa,” he told the defence officials, using a nickname for Vladimir Putin designed to emphasise his closeness to the president.This account of the meeting, which has not previously been reported, was provided by a former high-ranking defence ministry official with direct knowledge of the discussions.“At the time, I didn’t think much of the project,” said the former official.In fact, the decisions taken that day would have an enormous impact on Russia’s foreign policy and its military adventures in the years to come. Prigozhin’s army of contract fighters would come to be known as the Wagner group, and would see action in Ukraine, Syria and numerous African countries.Visitors gather outside PMC Wagner Centre, a project implemented by Yevgeny Prigozhin, during the official opening of the office block in St Petersburg on 4 November 2022. Photograph: Igor Russak/ReutersSince Putin’s decision last year to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Wagner has refocused its activities on Russia’s neighbour again. Its ranks have ballooned to about 50,000, according to western intelligence estimates, including tens of thousands of ex-prisoners recruited from jails around Russia, often personally by Prigozhin.Earlier this month, as Prigozhin’s troops captured the Ukrainian town of Soledar, Moscow’s first territorial gain in the war since the summer, Prigozhin released a video lauding Wagner as “probably the most experienced army in the world today”.Prigozhin has earned a reputation as the cruellest commander among those leading Russia’s grim invasion. He appeared to tacitly endorse a video showing the murder, with a sledgehammer, of a Wagner defector who had apparently been handed back by the Ukrainians in a prisoner exchange. “A dog’s death for a dog,” Prigozhin said in a statement at the time.Prigozhin did not respond to a request for comment for this article. But after years operating in the shadows, he is clearly relishing the spotlight as one of the most powerful – and most talked about – members of Putin’s court. It has been an extraordinary ascent for someone who once spent nearly a decade in prison, and who became a hotdog salesman on his release.The Guardian has spoken with numerous people who have known Prigozhin over the years, many of whom requested anonymity to speak freely, to piece together his story. From these conversations, a picture emerges of a ruthless schemer who was obsequious to social superiors and often tyrannical to underlings as he rose to the top.“He’s driven and talented, and won’t shrink from anything to get what he wants,” said a businessman who knew Prigozhin in the 1990s.Prigozhin (left) assists Vladimir Putin during a dinner with foreign scholars and journalists outside Moscow in November 2011. Photograph: ReutersFor Prigozhin, those who know him speculate, neither money nor power has been the sole motivating factor, although he has accumulated plenty of both along the way. Instead, they say, he is driven by the thrill of the chase, the belief he is battling corrupt elites on behalf of the common man, and a desire to crush his rivals.“It seems like he gets off from the process itself, not just the end result,” said the former defence official.Over the years, Prigozhin has made many enemies: former business partners who feel cheated, army generals he has criticised as deskbound bureaucrats, and top security officials who fear he harbour ambitions to seize political power.But so far, he has retained the favour of his most important backer: the man he calls Papa.The US announced on 3 March 2022 it was imposing sanctions against Russians including Yevgeniy Prigozhin (seen in an FBI poster) as it targeted Russia’s super-rich and others close to Putin. Photograph: FBI/ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin was born in Leningrad, now St Petersburg, in 1961, nine years after Putin. His father died when he was young; his mother worked in a hospital, Prigozhin has said. The young Prigozhin was sent to a sporting academy, where daily activities often involved hours of cross-country skiing.He didn’t make the cut as a professional athlete, and after finishing school he fell in with a crowd of petty criminals. Court documents from 1981, seen by the Guardian and first reported on by the Russian investigative outlet Meduza, tell the story.One evening in March 1980, during the dreary tail-end of Leonid Brezhnev’s rule over the Soviet Union, the 18-year-old Prigozhin and three friends left a St Petersburg cafe close to midnight and spotted a woman walking alone along the dark street.One of Prigozhin’s buddies distracted the woman by asking for a cigarette. As she went to open her purse, Prigozhin materialised behind her and grabbed her neck, squeezing until she lost consciousness. Then, his friend slipped off her shoes while Prigozhin deftly removed her gold earrings and pocketed them. The quartet sprinted off, leaving the woman lying on the street.It was one of many robberies that Prigozhin and his friends carried out in St Petersburg over a period of several months, the court found. He was sentenced to 13 years in prison, and spent the rest of the decade behind bars, missing the death of Brezhnev and Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika. He was released in 1990, as the Soviet Union was in its death throes. He returned to St Petersburg.The city was on the brink of monumental transformation, with great riches awaiting those shrewd or violent enough to seize them. Prigozhin started out modestly, selling hotdogs. He mixed the mustard in the kitchen of his family apartment.“We made $1,000 a month, which in rouble notes was a mountain; my mum could hardly count it all,” he told the St Petersburg news portal Gorod 812 in 2011, one of his only ever interviews.But Prigozhin had his sights set higher than fast food, and he knew how to make the contacts he needed. “He always looked for people higher up to befriend. And he was good at it,” said the businessman who knew him in the 1990s.Before long, Prigozhin owned a stake in a chain of supermarkets, and in 1995 he decided it was time to open a restaurant with his business partners. He found Tony Gear, a British hotel administrator who had previously worked at the Savoy in London and was now at one of St Petersburg’s few luxury hotels.Prigozhin hired Gear to manage first a wine shop, then his new restaurant, the Old Customs House, on St Petersburg’s Vasilievsky Island.Initially, the Old Customs House employed strippers as a way to drum up clientele, but soon word got out that the food was excellent, and the strippers were dismissed. Gear focused on marketing the eatery as the most refined place to eat in a city that was only just discovering fine dining. Pop stars and businessmen liked to eat there, as did St Petersburg’s mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, who sometimes came with his deputy, Vladimir Putin.Vladimir Putin and Mstislav Rostropovich at a banquet, with Prigozhin (second right) in the background. Photograph: handoutGear, who still lives in St Petersburg, declined an interview request. He has previously expressed admiration for Prigozhin but described him as a “very strict” boss, who would even use a special light projector to look for dust under tables each morning, to check the cleaners had worked properly.Back in the 1990s, Prigozhin did not mention in conversation that he had spent a decade in prison, those who knew him say. He turned on the charm to make the acquaintance of his new high-flying customers.“He can adapt to please any person if he needs something from them. That is definitely one of his talents,” said the businessman who knew him at the time.In one of post-Soviet Russia’s more unusual friendships, Prigozhin struck up a camaraderie with the famous cellist Mstislav Rostropovich, who had emigrated from the Soviet Union in the 1970s.Prigozhin (fourth left) with Vladimir Putin and George Bush in Villa Lindstrem, 2006 Photograph: handoutWhen Rostropovich hosted the queen of Spain at his St Petersburg home in 2001, Prigozhin provided the catering. Rostropovich even invited Prigozhin and his wife to a gala concert at the Barbican, part of the London celebrations of his 75th birthday in 2002, according to London Symphony Orchestra records of the invitation list for the event.By that time, Putin had become Russia’s president. During the early years of his rule, Putin often liked to meet foreign dignitaries in his home town, and he sometimes took them to the Old Customs House or to New Island, a boat Prigozhin had turned into a floating restaurant.Going back over photos of Putin’s official engagements from the period is like playing a game of Where’s Yevgeny, with frequent sightings of Prigozhin in the background, unsmiling and unobtrusive. Here he is lurking behind the table as Putin dines with George Bush; there he is hovering behind Prince Charles at a 2003 reception in St Petersburg’s Hermitage museum.Prigozhin behind Prince Charles during a gala evening at the Hermitage in 2003. Photograph: Pjotr Sauer/The Guardian“Putin saw that I wasn’t above bringing the plates myself,” Prigozhin has said. It was the start of a relationship with the Russian president that would grow and metastasise in unexpected ways.Before long, Prigozhin began winning contracts to cater for major government events through Concord, a holding company he had set up back in the 1990s. The next step was giant government supply contracts. In 2012, he won more than 10.5bn roubles (£200m) of contracts to provide food to Moscow’s schools, Russian media reported, citing records from the Russian financial registry.New opportunities arose when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 and intervened militarily in eastern Ukraine soon after. Putin denied that regular Russian troops had been involved in either case, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.The Kremlin began to think about how to make the deniability slightly more plausible. Although private military companies were illegal in Russia, several groups appeared that seemed to coordinate their actions with the defence ministry but could operate at arm’s length. Prigozhin’s Wagner would become by far the most prominent of them.“I think Prigozhin pitched it to Putin and he agreed, that’s how it works,” said the former defence ministry official, dismissing speculation that Wagner was a project of Russia’s GRU military intelligence from the start. “There might have been some GRU people advising, but in the end this was Prigozhin’s project.”The ministry provided Prigozhin with land in Molkino in southern Russia, said the source, where companies linked to Prigozhin constructed a staging base for fighters under the guise of a children’s camp. Reuters reported on Prigozhin’s alleged links to the Molkino site in 2019.It appears the scheme whetted Prigozhin’s appetite. “He was like a sniffer dog, always looking for money,” said the former official.In one email exchange reviewed by the Guardian between Prigozhin’s Concord group and the ministry of defence in the spring of 2014, a senior Concord lawyer discusses the option of supplying Russia’s vast network of military towns with food and other provisions.That project did not materialise in the end, but by 2015 his companies had won major contracts worth more than 92bn roubles (£1bn) to feed the army, according to an investigation by Forbes Russia.Prigozhin serves food for the Brazilian president Dilma Rouseff, Putin and the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi in the Kremlin in 2015. Photograph: Kremlin.ruPrigozhin’s swift rise started to irritate some officials at the defence ministry, tensions that would only grow over the years as his operations expanded further. A key moment for Prigozhin came in late 2015 when Putin decided to intervene militarily in Syria to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Prigozhin won contracts for food and supplies, and also dispatched his Wagner troops there.In Syria, Wagner first established itself as a formidable fighting force, with the group playing a prominent, if unacknowledged, role in Moscow’s intervention. Wagner fighters operated with impunity in Syria and were accused of numerous war crimes. In one incident, men linked to Wagner were captured on video beheading and dismembering a Syrian man. The group also took heavy losses, hushed up because officially they were not supposed to be there.As well as the real-life fighters, Prigozhin has been accused of running an army of keyboard warriors, first aimed at boosting Kremlin talking points in domestic discussion forums and later redirected to peddle Russian narratives abroad.An indictment resulting from Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election alleged Prigozhin and companies linked to him were behind a network of pro-Donald Trump Facebook and Twitter profiles, apparently part of a slew of Russian efforts to boost Trump’s candidacy.The fake profiles shared pro-Trump content and even made payments to unsuspecting real Americans to buy equipment for rallies.Prigozhin was still a deeply secretive character at this point, but the indictment suggested he was already enjoying his burgeoning notoriety.A couple of days before Prigozhin turned 55 in May 2016, the indictment said, one of the fake American Facebook characters paid a real American man to stand outside the White House holding up a sign that read “Happy 55th birthday, dear boss”.The US indictment was later withdrawn, but when asked about allegations of electoral interference last November, Prigozhin appeared to admit them, with a characteristically gruesome metaphor.“Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”With Prigozhin’s ever-expanding portfolio came increasing scrutiny. The anti-corruption activist and opposition politician Alexei Navalny released an investigation into Prigozhin’s business structures, accusing him of corruptly winning ministry of defence contracts to fund a luxury lifestyle.Lyubov Sobol, the Navalny associate behind the investigation, said: “His children posted pictures on Instagram all the time; they were boasting about their private jet, and through that we could find the holding company, which helped us find out about all his wealth.”Sobol and others flew a drone over palatial residences allegedly belonging to Prigozhin and his daughter, featuring a helipad and basketball court.Soon after, Sobol’s husband collapsed after a man waiting outside the couple’s home stabbed him in the leg with a needle. Sobol says a steady campaign of legal pressure and intimidation followed, including goons who demonstratively followed her every time she went outside the house.“These people were basically breathing down my neck, every day … It’s the logic of a bandit. You are getting up in my business, so I’ll get up in yours,” Sobol said.Russian journalists who investigated Prigozhin’s activities also faced threats or intimidation that they believed to be connected to their work. After Novaya Gazeta ran an investigation in 2018, a severed ram’s head was delivered to the newspaper’s editorial offices. The journalist who wrote the investigation received a funeral wreath at his home address.This undated photograph handed out by the French military shows three Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali. Photograph: APMost shockingly, three Russian journalists who travelled to Central African Republic in 2018 to investigate Wagner’s activities there were killed in an ambush that appeared to be well planned and coordinated, involving a Russian security instructor with links to Wagner. Prigozhin has repeatedly denied any involvement in the killings.By this time, Prigozhin’s activities had spread to at least 10 countries in Africa, where he offered security and arms training services and secured mining rights and other business opportunities.Prigozhin ran this worldwide network from an office on St Petersburg’s Vasilievsky Island, not far from the Old Customs House where he and Tony Gear had started out in the restaurant business two decades previously.“He ruled through fear,” recalled Marat Gabidullin, a Wagner commander who spent three months at the headquarters giving Prigozhin daily updates on the military situation in Syria at the end of 2017. Gabidullin, who is currently in France, said Prigozhin could show care towards his military commanders, especially when injured, but often had contempt for the office workers.“The office atmosphere was extremely strict, Prigozhin would often cross the line with his workers. He was very rude to his staff. He would curse people, and embarrass them in public,” he said.Although he had no official position, Prigozhin was now a frequent attender at high-level meetings related to defence contracts. He even sat in on a bilateral meeting between Putin and the Madagascan president, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, in the Kremlin in April 2018, a meeting that was not publicised but was reported on by the New York Times. Soon after, political consultants linked to Prigozhin descended on Madagascar, according to the Times.Just two months after that meeting, Putin scoffed at the claims that Prigozhin was involved in shadow foreign policy manoeuvres on behalf of the Kremlin. “He runs a restaurant business, it is his job; he is a restaurant keeper in St Petersburg,” Putin said of Prigozhin during an interview with Austrian television.Pressed on evidence of Prigozhin’s defence ministry contracts and allegations of electoral interference, Putin gave a revealing answer, comparing Prigozhin to George Soros, the financier and philanthropist who is the subject of numerous conspiracy theories, and whom Russian officials have accused of bankrolling revolutions on US government orders.“There is such a personality in the United States: Mr Soros, who interferes in all affairs around the world … The state department will say that it has nothing to do with them, rather it is Mr Soros’s private affair. With us, it is Mr Prigozhin’s private affair,” said Putin.In effect, Putin was admitting that Prigozhin for him was what he wrongly believed Soros to be for the US government: a tool to meddle abroad while retaining plausible deniability.Putin’s fateful decision to launch a full-scale assault on Ukraine in February last year has removed the requirement for plausible deniability.After years of denying all links to Wagner, Prigozhin announced triumphantly in September that he had founded the group back in 2014. “In any issue there should be room for sport,” he said, explaining why he had sued numerous media outlets for linking him to Wagner in the past.The admission came after a viral video, apparently leaked by Prigozhin’s team, showed him inside a prison pitching to assembled inmates the opportunity to fight in Ukraine.Screengrab of Prigozhin addressing inmates in a Russian prison, offering them freedom for fighting with Wagner group mercenaries for six months in Ukraine. Photograph: TwitterPrigozhin told the prisoners they would probably die at the front. But if they survived for six months, they would be released with a full pardon and paid generously.“He’s one of us, in the end,” recalled an inmate at one of the prisons visited by Prigozhin, in an interview. “He was also a prisoner. I think a lot of people signed up because they trusted Prigozhin. They don’t trust the authorities, but they believed Prigozhin that he will get them released.”Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, recently claimed Wagner had recruited more than 38,000 prisoners in recent months, and said 30,000 had been killed, wounded, captured or were missing. He accused Wagner of taking part in a Russian “genocide” in Ukraine.Many of the new recruits have been tossed into action as cannon fodder at the frontline, as Prigozhin tries hard to prove that his fighters are more capable of making gains than the regular Russian army.“Wagner has gone from a band of brothers to a group of combat serfs,” said Gabidullin, the former commander.Prigozhin has praised Wagner’s “ultra-strict discipline”, which another former commander claims has included killing those who disobey orders. Andrey Medvedev, a Wagner commander who said he fought near Bakhmut between July and October, said he knew of at least 10 such killings, and had witnessed some personally.“The commanders took them to a shooting field and they were shot in front of everyone. Sometimes one guy was shot, sometimes they would be shot in pairs,” he told the Guardian in an interview, shortly before fleeing Russia for Norway last week.Yevgeny Prigozhin at the funeral of a Wagner group fighter. Photograph: Sipa US/AlamyFor those convict-conscripts who survive the six-month stint at the front, liberty and financial rewards await. Prigozhin has called on Russia’s leading universities to fund scholarships for them, while one Russian official recently suggested that some former prisoners ought to be made MPs.There is something symbolic in Prigozhin, who spent his 20s in prison, now paving the way for the release and rehabilitation of thousands of prisoners, including those convicted of the most violent crimes.According to Ivan Krastev, a political scientist, it is part of an attempt to “redefine the Russian nation” amid the new wartime atmosphere. “Prisoners are welcomed in the nation, while all those anti-war cosmopolitan elites, including some of Putin’s oligarchs, are not,” Krastev said.In recent weeks, Prigozhin has frequently released statements attacking supposed traitors in the elite who holiday abroad and dream of Russia losing the war. There are many in Putin’s administration who want to “fall on their knees before Uncle Sam”, Prigozhin claimed last week.Prigozhin has in effect become “the leader of anti-elite Putinism”, said Krastev, remaining loyal to the tsar while attacking all those around him.Many of those who have known Prigozhin say that for years he has seen himself as a defender of the little guy taking on the elites, an incongruous characterisation given the riches he has acquired for himself and his family along the way, but one he would often employ.“He presents himself as the defender of the masses, the lower classes. That is his niche,” said Gabidullin.Now, Prigozhin’s increasingly brazen criticism has led some to wonder where the ceiling of his ambitions might be.“People from the FSB are furious about him and see him as a threat to the constitutional order,” said a source in the Russian political elite. “He has this big military group not controlled by the state, and after the war they will want their rewards, including political rewards.”Prigozhin released a photograph of himself surrounded by Wagner fighters in what appeared to be one of Soledar’s saltmines. Photograph: TelegramOthers wonder if Prigozhin may have gone too far. His repeated raging at the defence ministry for trying to “steal” his victory in Soledar has at times sounded more like weakness than strength. After all, insiders say Wagner relies on logistics and intelligence support from the ministry of defence to continue its fighting, and Prigozhin relies on Putin’s continued favour to operate at all.The businessman who knew Prigozhin back in the 1990s, looking at his old associate today, was certain of one thing: Prigozhin does not have an off switch.“He understands that many hate him in the system … so he knows that if he stops, it could be the end for him. He has no choice. He cannot reverse.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
September 21, 2022 07:31 AM PUTIN: ‘THIS IS NO BLUFF’: In a 20-minute recorded address to his nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin upped the ante in a tacit admission that his forces have suffered humiliating losses in the first seven months of his faltering invasion of Ukraine. Putin ordered what he called a “partial mobilization,” which would activate some 300,000 reserve forces who already have military training, and he peppered his speech with accusations against NATO and the West, saying they had “crossed all lines” in arming Ukraine, and are engaging in “nuclear blackmail,” falsely accusing NATO of contemplating the use nuclear weapons against Russia. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff,” Putin said, casting the action as a response to a direct threat from NATO. The mobilization, he said, is “to protect our homeland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to ensure the security of our people and people in the liberated territories.” In a tweet today, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace called Putin’s mobilization “an admission his invasion is failing.” “No amount of threats and propaganda can hide the fact that Ukraine is winning the war, the international community are united and Russia is becoming a global pariah,” Wallace said. PUTIN ANNOUNCES PARTIAL MOBILIZATION OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION ‘SHAM REFERENDA’ SET: Putin’s actions came a day after Russian-installed officials in occupied areas of Luhansk, Kherson, as well as parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions announced plans to hold four days of voting on the question of whether the regions want to become part of Russia. The U.S. and its allies have denounced the referenda as “sham elections” that are an act of desperation in response to Ukraine's successful counteroffensive. “We know that these referenda will be manipulated. We know that Russia will use these sham referenda as a basis to purportedly annex these territories either now or in the future,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan at the White House Tuesday. “Let me be clear: If this does transpire … the United States will never recognize Russia's claims -- claims to any purportedly-annexed parts of Ukraine, and we will never recognize this territory as anything other than a part of Ukraine.” WHITE HOUSE WILL ‘NEVER’ RECOGNIZE ANNEXED UKRAINIAN TERRITORY AS RUSSIAN THE ISW’S TAKE: “The Kremlin’s annexation plans are primarily targeting a domestic audience; Putin likely hopes to improve Russian force generation capabilities by calling on the Russian people to volunteer for a war to ‘defend’ newly claimed Russian territory,” says the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War. “Putin and his advisors have apparently realized that current Russian forces are insufficient to conquer Ukraine and that efforts to build large forces quickly through voluntary mobilization are culminating short of the Russian military’s force requirements,” the ISW concludes. “Putin is therefore likely setting legal and informational conditions to improve Russian force generation without resorting to expanded conscription by changing the balance of carrots and sticks the Kremlin has been using to spur voluntary recruitment.” RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED DONBAS REGION TO HOLD REFERENDA ON ANNEXATION Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY, BIDEN AT UN: President Joe Biden is in New York, where he will address the U.N. General Assembly at 10:35 a.m. in a speech that will “describe his vision for American foreign policy and principled leadership in the world,” and “offer a firm rebuke of Russia's unjust war in Ukraine,” according to the White House. “The main thrust of his presentation when it comes to Ukraine will really be about the United Nations charter, about the foundational principle at the heart of that charter, that countries cannot conquer their neighbors by force, cannot seize and acquire territory by force,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan previewing the speech for reporters. “He will speak to every country in the world, those that have joined our broad-based coalition to support Ukraine and those who so far have stood on the sidelines, that now is a moment to stand behind the foundational principles of the charter.” Biden also has one-on-one meetings scheduled with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss. The world body will also hear from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who will attempt to reassure allies that Ukraine is winning the war, deserving of continued support, and in need of still more advanced weaponry, including tanks, fighter aircraft, and air defenses. “The situation on the frontline clearly indicates that the initiative belongs to Ukraine,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “So let’s maintain the pressure. Let’s preserve unity. Let’s defend Ukraine. We are liberating our land. And we are not showing any signs of weakness.” UKRAINE MAY HAVE RUSSIAN FORCES CAUGHT IN 'BEAUTIFULLY DEFENSIBLE GRAVE RATCHETING UP RUSSIAN SANCTIONS: Two senators, one Republican and one Democrat, are proposing a “framework” for tightening the current economic sanctions that have so far failed to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from continuing his military campaign to seize much of Ukraine by force. The proposals include a sliding price cap on Russian oil shipped by sea until, after three years, it can only be sold at cost; sanctions on countries that increase their purchases of Russian oil, gas, and coal beyond what they bought pre-war; a seven-year sunset provision; and waiver authority for the president. “The U.S. and our allies have taken important steps to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked war against Ukraine, including sanctions that have hit its economy and Putin’s cronies. However, we have yet to effectively cut off funding to Putin’s war machine by diminishing Russia’s revenues from energy sales,” said Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) in a joint statement. “In order to successfully enforce the price cap, it’s clear the administration requires new authority from Congress, which is exactly what our framework will provide.” SENATORS PROPOSE SECONDARY SANCTIONS ON NATIONS BUYING MORE RUSSIAN FOSSIL FUELS THE WHITE HOUSE WALKBACK CONTINUES: The White House continues to try to un-say what President Joe Biden clearly said in his 60 minutes interview on CBS Sunday night. Asked point-blank by CBS correspondent Scott Pelley: “So unlike Ukraine, to be clear, sir, U.S. forces — U.S. men and women — would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?” Biden replied with an unequivocal “Yes.” But at yesterday’s White House briefing, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden was answering “a hypothetical question,” not making a policy change. “The president has reiterated those basic commitments on every occasion that he’s talked about Taiwan, including in this interview where he specifically and emphatically and unequivocally reinforced and reiterated the One China policy,” Sullivan said. “When the president of the United States wants to announce a policy change, he will do so. He has not done so.” All clear now? OPINION: THE TWO PROBLEMS WITH BIDEN'S TAIWAN DEFENSE PLEDGE\ REVIEW OF ‘MISO’ OPERATIONS UNDERWAY: Following a report in the Washington Post Monday, the Pentagon is acknowledging that it's conducting a review of its conduct of psychological operations on the internet, after Twitter and Facebook took offline fake accounts believed to be run by the U.S. military. Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder says neither social media company has informed the Defense Department of the action, but a review is being conducted “out of due diligence” as “part of a standard management process.” “To my knowledge, we have not reviewed this information, so we can't make the assumption that this is DOD,” he said. The Pentagon now refers to psy-ops as MISOs, an acronym for “Military Information Support Operations.” “It's an aspect of warfare as old as warfare itself. And we conduct those operations in support of national security priorities,” said Ryder. “They must be undertaken in compliance with U.S. law and DOD policy, and we have safeguards in place and are committed to observing those safeguards.” Ryder says information warfare is separate and apart from public affairs, and while it can involve the dissemination of deceptive or untruthful reports, “It's an aspect of warfare as old as warfare itself,” Ryder said. “Truth is always the preferred option.” “When you start talking about military deception operations, I mean, not to go too far back, when you think of World War II and you think of the invasion of D-Day and airplanes that were out on a runway that were meant to deceive the adversary, you know, that is a capability in your toolkit that you will keep in order to enable your operations,” he said. INDUSTRY WATCH — THE BIG REVEAL: Northrop Grumman Corporation has announced it will finally give the public a look at what the stealthy new Air Force B-21 Raider looks like during the first week of December at the company’s Palmdale, California facility. “The B-21 is the most advanced military aircraft ever built and is a product of pioneering innovation and technological excellence,” said Doug Young, sector vice president and general manager, Northrop Grumman Aeronautics Systems,” in a release from the company. Artist conceptions have pictured the long-range nuclear-capable bomber as having a bat-wing design similar to the iconic B-2 stealth bomber it's replacing. Grumman says it’s in the process of building six test B-21s, which are “in various stages of final assembly” in Palmdale, California. The first test flight is projected for 2023. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The Rundown Washington Examiner: Putin announces partial mobilization of Russian Federation Washington Examiner: Russian-occupied Donbas region to hold referenda on annexation Washington Examiner: White House will ‘never’ recognize annexed Ukrainian territory as Russian Washington Examiner: UN chief says talk of possible peace deal in Ukraine is ‘naive’ Washington Examiner: Ukraine may have Russian forces caught in 'beautifully defensible grave' Washington Examiner: Senators propose secondary sanctions on nations buying more Russian fossil fuels Washington Examiner: National Guard tries healthcare, educational, and financial recruitment incentives Washington Examiner: LISTEN: Space Force introduces 'Semper Supra' as service anthem Washington Examiner: Meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah, Israel's Yair Lapid shows how to lead Washington Examiner: Opinion: The two problems with Biden's Taiwan defense pledge Reuters: Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up New York Times: U.S. Bolsters Ukraine Aid Amid Worries That European Support Is Waning Wall Street Journal: The Ragtag Army That Saved Kyiv CNN: U.S. And Canadian Warships Sail Through Taiwan Strait After Biden Vows To Defend Island Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘We’re Not Ready’ to Fight China in Space and Cyber, Say Top U.S. Generals USNI News: Chinese Fleet Expansion Pushing U.S. Navy To Catch Up On Maintenance Reuters: China Willing To Make Effort For Peaceful ‘Reunification’ With Taiwan Air & Space Forces Magazine: Van Ovost: Time to Invest in Next Generation of Tankers, Airlifters Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown’s 5 Big Steps to Transforming His Air Force Bloomberg: Boeing’s troubled Air Force tanker hits new delay in fixing cameras Defense Daily: Decision Expected This Year on Future Path for F-35 Engine CQ Roll Call: Nuclear Arms Fears Surface During Senate Hearing Military Times: Congresswoman Calls For Examination Of Military Pretrial Confinement Task & Purpose: Self-described ‘Patriots’ tried to clog up the Veterans Crisis Line with bogus calls as a political stunt Bloomberg: Pentagon Shift To PFAS-Free Foam Spurring ‘Tidal Wave’ Of Change 19fortyfive.com: Putin's Sham Referendums in Ukraine Could Mean Danger for NATO 19fortyfive.com: Why the Russian Navy Has Vanished From the War in Ukraine 19fortyfive.com: The B-21 Raider Could Be the Ultimate Christmas Gift for the U.S. Air Force The Cipher Brief: Why Nuclear Deterrence is an Open-Ended Invitation The Cipher Brief: A Tale of Biological Terror and Espionage Forbes: Opinion: The Right Way To Buy The U.S. Navy’s New Generation Of Supercarriers Calendar WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 21 8:15 a.m. 165 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Air and Space Forces Association 2022 Air, Space and Cyber Conference, with Air Force Gen. Glenn VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command; Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command; Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly, commander of Air Combat Command; and Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of Air Mobility Command https://www.afa.org/events/2022-air-space-cyber-conference 8:30 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies discussion: “Assessing America’s Cyber Resiliency: A Conversation,” with co-chairs of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); moderated by Tim Starks, author of the Cybersecurity 202 newsletter at The Washington Post. https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/09/21/assessing-americas-cyber-resiliency 8:45 a.m. 1735 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense Strategies Institute 11th Military Tactical Communications Summit, with Deondray Wesley, branch head of Tactical and Public Safety Communications at DoD-CIO; Army CIO Raj Iyer; Army Maj. Gen. Christopher Eubank, commanding general at the Army Network Enterprise Technology Command; and Space Systems Command CIO Air Force Col. Albert Olagbemiro Note: Closed press. https://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org/ 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “New Paradigm for Cyber Competition: A Conversation on Cyber Persistent Theory," with Emily Goldman, director of U.S. Cyber Command/National Security Agency Combined Action Group; Richard Harknett, co-director of the Ohio Cyber Range Institute; and Michael Fischerkeller, research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses' Information, Technology and Systems Division https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/21/new-paradigm-for-cyber-competition 10:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: "Deepening U.S.-Japan Alliance Cooperation in the Face of Global Challenges," with retired Japan Air Self-Defense Force Gen. Yoshiyuki Sugiyama, president of the Japan-America Air Force Goodwill Association; former Assistant Defense Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Wallace Gregson; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center's Japan Program https://www.stimson.org/event/deepening-u-s-japan-alliance 10:35 a.m. — President Joe Biden addresses the United Nations General Assembly 2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: "Update on the Implementation of Recommendations of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military and the Establishment of the Office of Special Trial Counsels,” with testimony from Gilbert Cisneros, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Gabe Camarillo, undersecretary of the Army; Erik Raven, undersecretary of the Navy; and Gina Ortiz Jones, undersecretary of the Air Force https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 2 p.m. — House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing: Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies,” with testimony from Kimberly Marten, professor, Political Science Department, Barnard College, Columbia University; Catrina Doxsee, associate director, Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Joseph Siegle, director of research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases 3:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel hearing on the status of military recruiting and retention efforts across the Department of Defense, with testimony from Stephanie Miller, deputy assistant secretary of defense for military personnel policy; Lt. Gen. Douglas Stitt, deputy army chief of staff; Vice Adm. Rick Cheeseman, deputy chief of naval operations personnel, manpower and training; Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and service, U.S. Air Force; and Michael Strobl, assistant deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs, U.S. Marine Corps https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 22 8:45 a.m. 1735 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense Strategies Institute 11th Military Tactical Communications Summit, with Retired Army Futures Command CIO Wade Johnston; Air Force Lt. Col. Gabriel Avilla, chief of the Cyberspace Transformation Division in the Directorate of Cyberspace and Information Dominance Air Combat Command; and Special Operations Command COO of Networks and Services Army Col. Joseph Pishock Note: Closed press https://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org/ 10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Forum discussion on Space Force training, education and doctrine and STARCOM’s contributions to space warfighting, with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event 10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Learning to Win: Using Operational Innovation to Regain the Advantage at Sea against China," with Trent Hone, vice president of ICF; Dmitry Filipoff, director of online content at the Center for International Maritime Security; Michael Hunzeker, associate professor at George Mason University; and Bryan Clark, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2149-learning-to-win 1 p.m. — GovExec and HP with Intel event: “Securing the Air Force,” with Air Force officials: Aaron Bishop, chief information security officer; Jay Bonci, chief technology officer, OCIO; Colt Whittall, chief experience officer; Stuart Wagner, chief digital transformation officer; and Tommy Garder, Chief Technology Officer, HP Federal https://events.govexec.com/securing-air-force 3 p.m. 300 E St. S.W. — National Aeronautics and Space Administration briefing on Double Asteroid Redirection Test's (DART) final activities before its impact with Dimorphos. https://socialforms.nasa.gov/DART-Pre-Impact-Press-Briefing FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 23 9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion China's Next Act: How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future, with author Scott Moore, director of the University of Pennsylvania's China Programs and Strategic Initiatives; Carla Freeman, senior expert on China, U.S. Institute of Peace; and Andrew Mertha, director of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies' China Global Research Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-chinas-next-act-scott-m-moore 11 a.m. 760 Maine Avenue S.W. — 2022 Atlantic Festival discussion: “Threats to Democracy: The Latest on the Course of the War in Ukraine,” with White House Chief of Staff Ronald Klain https://hopin.com/events/atlantic-festival QUOTE OF THE DAY “President Putin's breaking of his own promises not to mobilize parts of the population and the illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine are an admission that his invasion is failing. He and his defense minister have sent tens of thousands of their own citizens to their deaths, ill-equipped and badly led. No amount of threats and propaganda can hide the fact that Ukraine is winning this war…” British Defense Minister Ben Wallace tweeting in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “partial” mobilization order for 300,000 fresh troops. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Vehicles are on fire at an oil depot after missiles struck the facility in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Makiivka, 15 km (94 miles) east of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Wednesday, May 4, 2022. (AP Photo)WASHINGTON — The White House on Tuesday asked Congress for another $38 billion in Ukraine aid. If lawmakers fund the supplemental request, it would bring the total amount Congress has appropriated for Ukraine to more than $100 billion in less than a year.The Office of Management and Budget asked Congress to include the $38 billion Ukraine supplemental funding request – which includes $21.7 billion in security assistance – in the government funding bill for fiscal 2023, while seeking additional funds for COVID-19 relief and disaster assistance.“We are urging the Congress to provide additional appropriations to ensure Ukraine has the funding, weapons and support it needs to defend itself and that vulnerable people continue to receive lifesaving aid,” Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young wrote in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.The $21.7 billion in Pentagon funding is “for equipment for Ukraine, replenishment of Department of Defense stocks and for continued military, intelligence and other defense support,” according to a summary table accompanying the supplemental request.The request includes another $14.5 billion in funding for the State Department and USAID for direct financial support to the Ukrainian government, humanitarian assistance and strengthening global food security. A $900 million request for the Department of Health and Human Services would “provide standard assistance health care and support services to Ukrainian parolees.”The request also contains a $626 million Energy Department request, in part for “nuclear security support.” Congress has previously granted funding to the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration to help Ukraine prepare for a potential incident from ongoing Russian shelling at the besieged Zaporizhzhia power plant.In addition to the total $38 billion Ukraine aid request, the White House is also asking Congress to authorize $7 billion in presidential drawdown authority for Kyiv – which allows President Joe Biden to transfer weapons from existing U.S. stocks.The Defense Department announced last week that it would transfer another $400 million worth of U.S. weapons stocks to Ukraine, and it has used drawdown authority more than 20 times since August 2021.Congress has already passed $65.9 billion in Ukraine assistance through three separate supplemental funding packages since Russia’s invasion in February. If Congress funds the fourth request, it would bring the total amount of Ukraine aid lawmakers have approved to $104 billion in less than a year.The Office of Management and Budget said that the Biden administration already has committed three-fourths of the $12.35 billion in Ukraine funding that Congress approved in September.The White House intends for the latest supplemental request to last through the end of FY 23. But the Biden administration burned through the $40 billion Ukraine aid supplemental that Congress passed in May in a matter of months, raising the possibility that it may have to ask for a fifth supplemental in what is likely to be a Republican-controlled House.Several conservative House members aligned with former president Donald Trump have pushed against previous tranches of Ukraine aid, with 57 House and 11 Senate Republicans voting against the $40 billion Ukraine supplemental earlier this year.A coalition of 12 conservative groups on Tuesday sent a letter to Pelosi and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urging them not to approve the White House’s latest Ukraine aid request. The coalition included the influential Heritage Foundation, the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute and Concerned Veterans for America.“It would be a colossal mistake for congressional leaders to use this lame-duck session to fast-track yet another massive aid package to Ukraine as the United States faces historic inflation and a $31 trillion national debt,” Concerned Veterans for America deputy director John Byrnes said in a statement, adding that the U.S. “should not continue to write a blank check to Ukraine.”McCarthy – who is likely to become House speaker in the next Congress – said in October that his party will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine. But McCarthy – who voted for the $40 billion Ukraine supplemental earlier this year – struck a more conciliatory tone a few days before the November midterm elections, clarifying in a CNN interview that “there has to be accountability going forward” and that “resources are going to where it is needed.”Other key Republicans, particularly in the Senate, have shown more enthusiasm about passing additional Ukraine aid.“I’m proud of them fighting for freedom and so forth, and I think that we will not turn our back on them,” Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, told Defense News on Monday. “If they show it’s needed, we ought to do it.”It also remains to be seen whether Congress will surpass the Biden administration’s $38 billion request with an even higher package. The White House asked for $33 billion in its second supplemental funding request in April, only for lawmakers to plus that number up to $40 billion.“We are waiting to get some final numbers,” Rep. Betty McCollum, D-Minn., the defense spending panel chairwoman told Defense News on Monday. “But I look forward to supporting the Ukrainian people in their battle for freedom.”Bryant Harris is the Congress reporter for Defense News. He has covered U.S. foreign policy, national security, international affairs and politics in Washington since 2014. He has also written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera English and IPS News. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
(Bloomberg) -- Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi told lawmakers that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin into an endless war, according to audio obtained by an Italian newswire, despite a preponderance of evidence to the contrary.Most Read from BloombergA Tense Pay Dispute Overshadows Nintendo’s Upcoming Bayonetta 3Trump Prosecutors See Evidence for Obstruction Charges$200 Diesel Puts Biden in an Ugly CornerTrump Special Master Has ‘No Patience’ for Records SpatsWeed Is Coming to Circle K Gas Stations in US Next YearThe recording sheds further light on the pressures to soften Italy’s stance toward Russia in the right-wing coalition that won elections on Sept. 25. Its publication follows that of another recording, apparently from the same meeting with lawmakers, where Berlusconi recounted how he had revived ties with Putin.Read More: Italy’s Berlusconi Says Putin Sent Him Vodka, a Sweet LetterThe remarks come while right-wing leader Giorgia Meloni is struggling to agree on cabinet posts with Berlusconi and other allies. She has vowed not to change Italy’s pro-Ukraine stance and said she supports sending weapons and aid to Ukraine.In a statement on Wednesday commenting on Berlusconi’s remarks, Meloni said she won’t accept any ambiguity on foreign policy if she becomes prime minister.Russia invaded Ukraine in February after having previously built up a military presence on the Ukraine border, thus escalating tensions with its neighbor. To justify the invasion, Putin accused Ukraine’s government of “genocide” against ethnic Russians and native Russian speakers in the Donbas, an unfounded allegation wholly rejected by Ukraine as well as the US and EU states.In the audio, which was published by the LaPresse newswire on Wednesday, Berlusconi, 86, can be heard saying that Putin did not want to go to war but was pushed to do so because of Ukraine’s continued attacks against Russian-backed separatists in Donbas.After his election, Zelenskiy “tripled the attacks” against the breakaway republics, according to Berlusconi, and Putin intervened to replace him with a government “already formed by a Ukrainian minority, formed by honest, sensible people.”“He entered Ukraine and found a situation he could not have predicted, of resistance from the Ukrainians who started receiving money and arms from the West on day three,” Berlusconi said. “So instead of being a two-week operation the war became a 200-year plus struggle.”In the first audio, published on Tuesday, Berlusconi had expressed concern about Italy’s aid to Ukraine and said Putin sent him vodka and a letter for his birthday. On the same day, in remarks broadcast on national television, Chamber of Deputies speaker Lorenzo Fontana, known for his pro-Putin views, said sanctions against Russia could “boomerang.”On Tuesday, Berlusconi’s party Forza Italia had denied that he had renewed contact with Putin and said his position with respect to Ukraine was “in line” with that of Europe and the United States.(Updates with background in the fifth paragraph.)Most Read from Bloomberg BusinessweekUkrainians Return Home by the Millions Even as War Rages OnJohn Mack, Who Led Morgan Stanley Into a Crisis, Regrets LittleMark Zuckerberg Isn’t Saying Much About Facebook These DaysHow Gamers Beat NFTsA Digital Drive to Reform the $11 Trillion Global Gold Market©2022 Bloomberg L.P. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
An oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. The country, along with other OPEC+ members, plans to cut production against the wishes of the U.S. Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images An oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. The country, along with other OPEC+ members, plans to cut production against the wishes of the U.S. Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images Some Democrats in Congress are furious about OPEC+'s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels of oil per day starting next month, and are calling to reexamine ties with key oil producers, and even withdraw U.S. military support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. A trio of House Democrats all in competitive reelection contests — Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild, Illinois Rep. Sean Casten and New Jersey Rep. Tom Malinowski — called the move "a hostile act" and a "turning point" in the relationship between the U.S. and the two Gulf states late Wednesday night and introduced legislation to remove U.S. military support from the two countries. Malinowski told NPR that he believes the move was "deliberate" to hurt the U.S. as it supports Ukraine in the war the Russian invasion and deserves a swift response. In an interview Thursday, he said, "I just don't see any good reason for us to maintain troops that are there almost solely for the purpose of protecting their oil fields and their security interest. It just doesn't make sense to me." Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., is one of several Democrats pushing to withdraw U.S. military support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE following OPEC+ decision to cut oil production. The move comes weeks before the midterm elections with gas prices rising again. Pool/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Pool/Getty Images Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., is one of several Democrats pushing to withdraw U.S. military support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE following OPEC+ decision to cut oil production. The move comes weeks before the midterm elections with gas prices rising again. Pool/Getty Images Malinowski said "there's no question that MBS [Mohammed bin Salman], particularly the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, shares Putin's worldview more than he shares ours. He doesn't appreciate American advocacy for democracy in the world." Legislation uses U.S. military support as leverage The New Jersey Democrat said the bill is "an exact copy" of a bill that Senate Republicans pushed when Trump was in the White House to give him leverage when the Saudis were producing more oil to push the price down to harm U.S. production. He said GOP lawmakers at the time were on board and the threat of pulling out military support worked then and he hopes they will support this effort. Malinowski has spoken with officials at the White House and State Department, but declined to describe their reaction. Democrats were divided on whether it was a good idea for President Biden to travel to Saudi Arabia and meet with the leadership over the summer. Malinowski said, "I felt that the trip was ill advised. I didn't think we'd get much from it. At the same time, I didn't think the Saudis would go to these lengths to screw us." The number 2 Senate Democratic leader, Sen. Dick Durbin, tweeted sharp criticism of the Saudi royal family, saying they have "never been a trustworthy ally" and "it's time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance." According to a recent report from the White House to Congress, roughly 2,700 U.S. personnel are deployed to Saudi Arabia to protect U.S. interests and protect against hostile action from Iran or Iranian-backed groups. There are roughly 2,000 troops in the UAE. The decision is already having an impact on gas prices, which had been trending down in recent weeks. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline rose from $3.831 per gallon to $3.867 just a day later, due to tight supply and steady demand. With the midterm elections less than 5 weeks away and the country facing record high inflation Democrats were already concerned that economic concerns would help fuel the ability of Republicans to retake one or both chambers of Congress. The GOP is favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and control of the Senate is a jump ball, with tight races in a small number of swing states. Last month an effort pushed by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., to include legislation reforming the permitting process for energy projects to a government funding bill was blocked, facing bipartisan opposition. Manchin tweeted that the OPEC+ decision called for a renewed effort to find agreement on the issue to decrease American dependence on foreign oil. My statement on the agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries+ (OPEC+) to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day: pic.twitter.com/seP4n2lCWl— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) October 5, 2022 Biden looks for alternatives to OPEC oil On Thursday President Biden told reporters he was disappointed in the decision by OPEC+ and said, "We're looking at what alternatives we might have." Asked whether easing sanctions on Venezuela was under consideration, Biden said, "There's a lot of alternatives – we haven't made up our mind yet." Malinowsi said, "I find it incredibly distasteful and disturbing that we depend on dictators who hate us for our energy" and the way to avoid that was to accelerate a transition to clean energy and get away from relying on places like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia for the global energy supply. Biden administration officials have recently discussed ramping up pressure on U.S. oil companies to increase production, specifically for the gap in prices between the wholesale price and the price consumers are paying at the pump. Other options to offset the decrease in supply would be to tap additional oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or work with European allies to purchase oil at below market prices from Russia. Top House Republicans' response to OPEC's announcement focused less on their squeeze and its impact on U.S. consumers and instead used the news to redouble their criticism of Biden's "radical climate agenda." In a joint statement Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., and Rep. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., urged a pivot to a strategy the GOP has pushed for years. "Instead of begging foreign countries for oil and raiding our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, President Biden should reverse his anti-American policies and unleash domestic energy production. Making the United States energy independent again would lower energy costs for Americans and reduce our reliance on OPEC for oil. By, once again, becoming a net exporter of energy, the United States can harness its resources to meet not only our needs but also the needs of our allies." Many Democrats maintain that Biden has pressed U.S. oil companies to increase production but they have been resistant and have been reaping profits that have gone to stock buybacks instead of investing in new capacity. No quick action on punitive measures Any legislative efforts would have to wait until after the election. Both chambers are in recess with members focused on the final five week stretch until the midterms on Nov. 8. According to some aides familiar with discussions on the issue, lawmakers may push to attach something to the annual defense authorization bill that is expected to be considered in the lame duck session in November. For now Malinowski acknowledged the bill was a "signal" to the president about the need to change the posture toward a longtime ally and he would need to sign off on it if the measure made to his desk. Malinowski added it's unclear how quickly the cuts would go into effect and impact prices at the pump but argued, "I do think it's important for the president to get ahead of that and to show the Saudis, the Emiratis and the American people that we're not going to stand for this." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The midterm elections, which are largely being fought over inflation, crime and other domestic issues, could have a huge impact on America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the likely Speaker in a GOP majority, has talked about how Ukraine would not get a “blank check” from the U.S. with Republicans in control of the House. GOP victories by pro-Trump candidates in the House and Senate could also amplify isolationist voices that have questioned the Biden administration’s steady spending in support of Ukraine. “I just see a freight train coming, and that is Trump and his operation turning against aid for Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D) told MSNBC last month, underscoring a widely-held concern among Democrats. He added that there could be “a real crisis where the House Republican majority would refuse to support additional aid to Ukraine.” Statements from GOP lawmakers such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have added to the anxiety. During a rally last week, she said a GOP majority would not spend “another penny” on Ukraine. To be sure, there are many voices within the GOP that have been highly supportive of Ukraine during the conflict with Russia, including Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the top Republicans in the foreign affairs committees in each chamber, have been leading voices in support of arming Ukraine, often pushing for Biden to do more. Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Republican Senate foreign policy staff member, said a majority of Republicans want to back Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. “For me, it is about the great battle of the substantive versus the loud,” she said, placing figures like Greene in the latter category. “But these are not people who have any power at all in the House or the Senate.” But it is also true that McCarthy’s comments reflect skepticism about U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine within his conference. And the first test of GOP resistance to additional Ukraine aid could come before the end of this session, with the Biden administration expected to push for another aid package during the lame-duck period before January. Rep. Jim Banks, chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said McCarthy was “exactly right” with his no-blank-check comments. “Now Democrats are screaming and saying ‘Well, McCarthy says that, we know he’s gonna be Speaker of the House. We’re gonna pass another $50 billion in the lame duck.’ It’s just absurd. It’s insanity,” he told Fox News last month. That package is likely to pass with Democrats still in control of the House and Senate no matter the results of the midterms. But the level of GOP opposition could indicate how much of the caucus remains on board with strong support for Kyiv. And Banks’ remarks could find even more support if the U.S. economy tips into a recession in 2023. Ukraine is likely to be watching the results of the midterms with some anxiety, though Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the BBC last week that he was confident that both parties would keep up support for Kyiv after meetings with lawmakers. “I got a lot of signals that it doesn’t matter who will steer… bipartisan support for Ukraine will be continued,” he said. “I believe in that.” Andres Kasekamp, a political science professor at the University of Toronto who studies the war, said the GOP is “exploiting” the narrative that America must choose between investing in the U.S. on one hand or helping Ukraine on the other. He accused some in the GOP of abandoning the idea that upholding a rules-based international order is in the U.S. interest. “That used to be something that was common sense and in the DNA of the Republican Party,” he said. “Now the sort of populists on the far right of the Republican Party have changed the narrative, and it’s dangerous.” So far, Americans remain largely united behind U.S. support for Ukraine, thought recent polls have shown a growing partisan divide. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early October found that 81 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans agreed that the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine, despite nuclear warnings from Russia. A Wall Street Journal poll this month found that 81 percent of Democrats support additional financial aid for Ukraine, compared to 35 percent of Republicans. And almost half of Republicans said the U.S. is doing too much, up from 6 percent at the start of the war. “It plays right into the hands of Putin,” Kasekamp said of skepticism toward Ukraine support. “The Russians from the beginning have tried to dissuade the West from helping the Ukrainians.” Former President Trump has said current U.S. policy risks World War III, advocating instead for the U.S. to pressure Ukraine to open peace talks with Russia. Last month, he found rare common cause with progressive Democrats in the House, who released and then retracted a letter calling on President Biden to ramp up diplomatic efforts to end the war. Tuesday’s election could bolster the ranks of Ukraine skeptics. JD Vance, the Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee in Ohio, said earlier this year that he didn’t care about Ukraine, and wanted Biden to focus on the U.S. border. Pletka, the former GOP staffer, said she worried that the far right and far left — for different reasons — will decide to capitulate to Putin and pressure Ukraine to take a peace deal. “I could absolutely see the appeasement wing of the Democratic Party having a meeting of minds, if you can call them that, with the fortress America-first wing of the Republican party and doing the wrong thing,” she said. Despite Ukraine projecting confidence in continued support from both parties, Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Kyiv has cause for concern. “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy learned the hard way in 2019 how much domestic U.S. politics can affect Ukraine’s reality,” she wrote last week, referring to Trump’s first impeachment trial. “He and his team would be right to worry about next week’s polls. Whether or not the GOP will follow through on its threats to scale back Ukraine aid is impossible to predict, but it is definitely a real possibility.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs the supervisory board meeting of the presidential forum "Russia - Land of Opportunity" at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia April 20, 2022.Mikhail Tereshchenko | Sputnik | via ReutersWASHINGTON – World leaders swiftly condemned the Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian port, a dramatic revelation amid a U.N.-brokered deal that secured a sea corridor for grains and other foodstuff exports.A day prior, representatives from the U.N., Turkey, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to reopen three Ukrainian ports, an apparent breakthrough as the Kremlin's war on its ex-Soviet neighbor marches into its fifth month.The deal, signed in Istanbul and set to be implemented in the next few weeks, follows a months-long blockade of dozens of Ukrainian ports sprinkled along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.The strike on Odesa, Ukraine's largest port, illustrates yet another anxious turn in fruitless efforts to mitigate a mounting global food crisis.A general view shows a fire engine at a scene of a burning building after a shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues in a location given as Odesa, Ukraine in this picture obtained from social media released on July 19, 2022.State Emergency Service of Ukraine | Via ReutersAn adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Russia "predictably worthless" on the heels of the attack."The ink has not had time to dry out, yet there are two vile provocations: attack on a seaport in Odesa and a statement by Russia's Defense Ministry that Ukraine ports are "dangerous for shipping," wrote Mykhailo Podolyak on Twitter."Not even 24 hours had passed before these grain terminals, the territory of Odesa and the port were struck," Zelenskyy told a U.S. delegation of lawmakers visiting Ukraine.Among those visiting Zelenskyy, Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said Russian President Vladimir Putin "violated the spirit of that agreement with more missile strikes.""He simply cannot be trusted," Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, wrote in a statement.U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres "unequivocally" condemned the missile strike on the port."Full implementation [of the deal] by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Turkey is imperative," the U.N. chief wrote.European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called Russia's missile strike on Odesa "reprehensible.""Striking a target crucial for grain export a day after the signature of Istanbul agreements is particularly reprehensible again demonstrates Russia's total disregard for international law and commitments," Borrell wrote on Twitter.Spanish celebrity chef and restaurateur Jose Andres, who brought his humanitarian organization to Ukraine to alleviate the food crisis triggered by Russia's war, also slammed the missile strikes on Odesa."Why are you attacking the grain that needs to be exported? Why? Stop please and let's feed the world," wrote the two-star Michelin chef and founder of the World Central Kitchen, a group dedicated to feeding vulnerable communities.Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said the missile strikes were "all you need to know about deals with Russia.""Today, Russian missiles hit the port of Odesa. That's all you need to know about deals with Russia. The world must help Ukraine fight the aggressor," she wrote. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Trump at CPAC: 'I am your warrior,' 'your retribution'
The former president questioned why NATO isn't matching the United States' spending in Ukraine "dollar for dollar."
Former President Donald Trump referred to his 2024 presidential campaign on Saturday as the "final battle" and if the Democrats win, "we no longer have a country."
"We're going to finish what we started," Trump told the audience at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) after his straw poll win.
"The Republican Party was ruled by freaks, neocons, open border zealots and fools. We're never going back to the party of Paul Ryan, Karl Rove, and Jeb Bush," he added.
Trump vowed to "expel the war mongers" and "drive out the globalist" if he wins in 2024.
"We will evict Joe Biden from the White House," he said. "We are never going to be a country ruled by entrenched political dynasties in both parties, rotten special interests, China loving politicians of which there are many. You listening to this Mitch McConnell?"
Trump also pledged to protect Social Security and Medicare.
The former president questioned why NATO isn't matching the United States' spending on the war in Ukraine.
"Why isn't Nato putting up dollar for dollar with us?" he said. "We all want to see success but it's far more important to them than it is us."
Trump touted how there were no new wars under his presidency, despite what some of his opponents predicted.
"I finished some old wars," he said.
He described as foreign policy record as "peace through strength."
Trump pledged to "never retreat" and move full speed ahead into 2024.
"In 2016, I declared I am your voice. Today I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice," he said. "I am your retribution."
Trump has credited CPAC with launching his political career.
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© Provided by Washington Examiner Russian forces are retreating on both the eastern and southern Ukrainian fronts. Russian forces around the southern city of Kherson, the Dnieper River-bordering gateway to Crimea and the Sea of Azov, face an especially critical situation. Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon have to choose between a full-scale retreat or the Hail Mary employment of nuclear weapons. Even Putin's top supporters recognize that Russia has a big problem. Take the chairman of the Russian parliament's defense committee, Andrey Kartapolov. A retired top-ranking military officer who previously commanded the Western Military District (which has operational responsibility for areas of Ukraine outside of Crimea), Kartapolov was parachuted into the Duma last September as a reward for his loyalty. But Kartapolov offered no spin on Wednesday. "We need to stop lying," he said on a prime-time state TV show. Condemning the defense ministry's rose-tinted reporting on the war in Ukraine, Kartapolov explained that the country's credibility was being undermined by the public's awareness of major losses. "The people know, our people are not stupid," he said. This is a marked change from Kartapolov's rhetoric in April, when he proclaimed that the war would lead to a majestic shift in "world order." WHY PUTIN AND ZELENSKY ARE ESCALATING THEIR CONFLICT Yet Kartapolov is far from alone in his anguish. Top TV propagandists are now calling for deserting officers to be shot. Apparently energized rather than mollified by Putin's recent promotion of him to the rank of colonel-general, the president's Chechen viceroy Ramzan Kadyrov is making increasing waves on his Telegram channel. Kadyrov has been complaining about the Russian military's performance in Ukraine for six months now and says he'll send his teenage sons to the front line. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER However, the signs of chaos are growing. Putin has now relieved the commander of the Western Military District, but it's unclear what good that will do. Forbes-Russia reports that 700,000 citizens have abandoned Russian territory since Putin's introduction of a partial draft last month. But facing the predictably terrible treatment of these conscripts (many of whom are having to buy their own equipment from extortionist military suppliers), the Kremlin is panicking. It has apologized for mobilization errors and keeps expanding a list of waivers from service. This is clearly designed to placate the middle class, albeit at the expense of rural and ethnic-minority populations. This crisis is not one that Putin can easily resolve. While Putin's rule remains stable for now, it is very hard to see how he can fix his military's inability to conduct combined arms offensive operations in Ukraine. So, expect more rhetoric from officials like Kartapolov, more pressure on Putin, and thus more risk of a major escalation. Washington Examiner VideosTags: Opinion, Beltway Confidential, War in Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Foreign Policy, National SecurityOriginal Author: Tom RoganOriginal Location: Russian parliament defense committee chief to military: 'Stop lying' about Ukraine losses | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
US President Joe Biden dismissed China's proposed peace plan for the war in Ukraine on Friday, suggesting its implementation would only benefit Russia.
"If Putin is applauding it, so how could it be any good?" Biden said in an interview with ABC News. "I’m not being facetious. I’m being deadly earnest."
"I've seen nothing in the plan that would indicate that there is something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia if the Chinese plan were followed," Biden said.
Beyond his criticism of the peace plan, Biden outright rejected the notion of China negotiating peace in the war, calling it irrational.
"The idea that China is going to be negotiating the outcome of a war that is a totally unjust war for Ukraine is just not rational," Biden said.
Biden also weighed in on the possibility of China providing lethal weapons to Russia, which US officials have warned of in recent days.
Biden declined to outline the consequences of China arming Russia, but suggested China would face the same "severe sanctions" as any other country or entity that has supplied weapons to Russia.
Some background: The US has intelligence that the Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and ammunition for use in the war in Ukraine, three sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
It does not appear that Beijing has made a final decision yet, the sources said, but negotiations between Russia and China about the price and scope of the equipment are ongoing.
China's Foreign Ministry said Friday that the country takes a "responsible approach" to military exports and does not provide arms sales to conflict areas. The statement comes a day after a German media outlet claimed Beijing is negotiating with Moscow to supply drones.
On the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared messages of hope as anxiety and resolve filled the air throughout Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky declared 2023 as the year of Ukraine's victory over Russia, and expressed confidence in his country's ability to fend off attacks, but did not speculate on how soon the fighting could end.
Officials around the world joined Zelensky in his hopeful message, releasing statements emphasizing their support for Ukraine.
If you're just now catching up, here's what you need to know:
China developments: China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Friday that China is willing to play a constructive role in resolving issues between Ukraine and Russia, but did not provide concrete details on what that looks like. His comments come after China released a document Friday outlining its position on the conflict in Ukraine, which Ukrainian diplomat Zhanna Leshchynska called "a good sign." Russia's Foreign Ministry also voiced appreciation Friday for the proposal, and blamed Ukraine and the West for the lack of negotiations on it.
Zelensky said Friday Ukraine "will work with China" if they show respect for international law and territorial integrity. The Ukrainian president said he would like to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Shelling continues. Ongoing Russian shelling has killed at least three civilians in Ukraine's east and south, and injured several others over the last 24 hours, according to situational updates from local authorities. The heating system in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson has been damaged due to Russian shelling and residents may have to remain without heat for several days, the Kherson region military administration said Friday. A spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force said the Ukrainian military is on alert for any attacks by Russian forces and that security measures across the country have been increased.
Sanctions. The European Union has approved a 10th round of sanctions against Russia, the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU said on Friday. And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken rolled out more sanctions, visa restrictions and additional tariffs for Russia in a Friday announcement. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he also intends to present the idea of imposing new sanctions against Russia during a virtual meeting with G7 leaders and Zelensky. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly too announced a new package of sanctions and trade measures against Russia on Friday. The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Russia’s economy will experience more difficulties due to the continued sanctions.
Military assistance. Germany will send four more Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, increasing the number it's sending from 14 to 18, according to the German defense ministry. Sweden also pledged to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in a military package that includes further air defense components, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Friday. A first delivery of Leopard 2 tanks from Poland has arrived in Ukraine, a spokesperson for the Polish defense ministry said. Meanwhile, Russia could provide Iran with fighter jets as military cooperation between the two countries deepens, the White House said Friday.
US President Joe Biden told ABC News on Friday that Ukraine “doesn’t need F-16s now,” despite reporting that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have, in recent days escalated their public lobbying campaign for the US-made fighter jets, arguing they need them urgently to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks.
"Look, we're sending him what our seasoned military thinks he needs now. He needs tanks, he needs artillery, he needs air defense, including another HIMARS,” Biden told ABC News’ David Muir. "There's things he needs now that we're sending him to put them in a position to be able to make gains this spring and this summer going into the fall."
Pressed on Zelensky’s calls for the US to provide the fighter jets, Biden told Muir: “There is no basis upon which there is a rationale, according to our military now, to provide F16s,” adding “I am ruling it out, for now.”
Earlier Friday, Biden balked when asked by CNN’s Jeremy Diamond what he told Zelensky during his visit to Kyiv about the possibility of providing F-16s, responding: “That’s a private discussion.”
Biden National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said during a town hall Thursday the F-16s came up during the US president's surprise trip to Ukraine.
“F-16s are not a question for the short-term fight. F-16s are a question for the long-term defense of Ukraine and that’s a conversation that President Biden and President Zelensky had,” Sullivan said.
Some context: Ukraine's renewed public push for the planes, which Ukraine's foreign minister publicly described as a "priority" last month, appears driven in large part by a belief in Kyiv that with enough public pressure, the Ukrainians can eventually secure weapons systems that were once deemed a red line by the west.
"What is impossible today is absolutely possible tomorrow," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told NPR in January.
A Ukrainian military official echoed that sentiment in comments to CNN, saying, "It's going to come sooner or later."
There's no evidence "so far" that China will militarily back Russia in Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said Friday while warning any support would have economic ramifications for Beijing.
Asked if he was worried China would fight with Russia, the president said he spoke to Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the issue and about the economic consequences during the summer. "And I said, ‘Look, it's not a threat. It's just a statement,” Biden said as he departed the White House.
Biden added: “When in fact, Europeans saw what was happening, and Americans saw what was happening in Russia and Europe, guess what? Six other corporations pulled out and left — they didn’t want to be associated with it. I said, ‘You [Xi], told me that the future of China rests on investment from the Western world — that matters.’ I said, I’d just keep an eye on there's no evidence he’s done it yet.”
Some context: The US has intelligence that the Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and ammunition for use in the war in Ukraine, three sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
It does not appear that Beijing has made a final decision yet, the sources said, but negotiations between Russia and China about the price and scope of the equipment are ongoing.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, officials said.
“The secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.
One year after Russia's invasion, the US still leads the world in bilateral aid sent to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute that has been tracking more than $150 billion in aid to Ukraine from January 2022 through January 15 of this year.
US commitments, including financial, humanitarian and military aid, have exceeded $70 billion, more than the EU member countries and institutions combined, which are nearing $55 billion.
See how other countries measure up:
But smaller nearby countries, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are throwing a greater portion of their economic power behind Ukraine, leading aid contributions as a percent of GDP.
See other countries and their bilateral commitments as a percentage of GDP:
The European Union has approved a 10th round of sanctions against Russia, the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU said on Friday.
“It’s one year since Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine, today, the EU approved the 10th package of Russian sanctions,” the presidency said on Twitter.
The Swedish Presidency of the EU added the new sanctions package has imposed “the most forceful and far-reaching sanctions ever to help Ukraine win the war.”
The package includes:
- Targeted restricted measures against individuals and entities supporting the war, spreading propaganda or delivering drones used by Russia in the war
- Measures against Russian disinformation
- Tighter export restrictions regarding dual-use and technology
“The EU stands united with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. We will keep supporting Ukraine, for as long as it takes,” the presidency continued.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson tweeted that he welcomed the EU’s agreement on its 10th round of sanctions.
“To keep unity in support for Ukraine is the number one priority for the Swedish EU Presidency,” he wrote.
As the war enters its second year, the European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said Russia’s economy will experience more difficulties due to Europe largely cutting out Russian gas and continued sanctions.
“Last year, Russia could cut a lot of money because of the high prices of energy, and we were still very much dependent on Russian gas imports,” Borrell told CNN’s Isa Soares on Friday. “But that’s over, Europe is no longer consuming Russian gas. We were 40% dependent, now we are only 6% dependent. No Russian oil.”
“From an economic point of view, Russia is going to pay a big price for this war. The sanctions work, but they work slowly,” he continued.
When Russia’s war broke out, Western countries hit back with unprecedented sanctions to punish Moscow and pile pressure on President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s economy did weaken as a result, but also showed resilience. As demand for Russian oil fell in Europe, Moscow redirected its barrels to Asia.
The European Union — which spent more than $100 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2021 — has made huge strides in phasing out purchases.
The bloc, which dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas last year, officially banned most imports of Russian crude oil by sea in December. It enacted a similar block on refined oil products this month.
CNN's Julia Horowitz contributed reporting to this post.
More than 250 attacks during Russia’s invasion last year left nearly one in 10 Ukrainian hospitals damaged, some repeatedly, according to new analysis reviewed by CNN by investigators from the United States, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Ukraine published Tuesday.
The analysis is a joint undertaking of five nongovernmental organizations: eyeWitness to Atrocities (eyeWitness), Insecurity Insight, the Media Initiative for Human Rights (MIHR), Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) and the Ukrainian Healthcare Center (UHC). CNN has reviewed their analysis but cannot independently confirm the details of each attack.
Nearly 200 medical workers, who at the time of war are protected under international human rights laws, were either killed, injured, kidnapped or arrested, the collaboration between the NGOs revealed.
Researchers documented 707 health care attacks between February and December 2022, including damage to facilities, such as strikes by ground-launched explosives, and other attacks, such as looting, denial of access to health care and disruption of patients’ access to utilities necessary for medical care.
“These findings should be a wake-up call for the global community to act now to end impunity for wanton violence against health workers, in Ukraine and around the world,” Christian De Vos, report co-author and research director at Physicians for Human Rights, a US-based human rights NGO, told CNN.
CNN has asked the Russian government for comment but has not yet received a response. Russia has previously claimed that it only fires on targets of military value. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Critics blasted the deal the Biden administration made to get WNBA player Brittney Griner back to her home in the U.S. after she was sentenced to Russian prison for nine years on drug-related charges.For Griner to be released, the U.S. government agreed to release international arms dealer Viktor Bout to the Russian government, who had been arrested by the DEA in Thailand in 2008 and was put in U.S. custody. Bout, who has been called the "Merchant of Death" by his accusers, was convicted of conspiring to kill Americans. Many on Twitter pointed out that Bout was the inspiration for the Nicolas Cage movie "Lord of War."BRITTNEY GRINER REVEALS TRANSLATION ISSUE DURING HER FEBRUARY ARREST WNBA star and two-time Olympic gold medalist Brittney Griner holds images standing in a cage at a courtroom for a hearing in Khimki just outside Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Aug. 4, 2022. (Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool Photo via AP)In addition to critics claiming Russian President Vladimir Putin got the upper hand in this deal by getting back its "Merchant of Death," they slammed Biden for the fact that the U.S. didn’t even get back U.S. Marine veteran Paul Whelan. Whelan has been sitting in a Russian prison since 2018 with a sixteen-year sentence for espionage charges. As Fox News Digital reported, the Biden team had originally requested Griner and Whelan released for Bout, but that fell through. Critics on Twitter torched the whole deal, with some calling it the worst trade they had ever seen. Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy brutalized the trade in his Thursday morning tweet, writing, "This is great news till you Google who Victor Bout is and realize Biden just got taken to the woodshed on this deal. This has to go down as the most lopsided trade in the history of trades. What happened to Griner was beyond f***** but this feels like a short sighted PR stunt."Sports journalist and conservative podcaster Jason Whitlock was not impressed with the trade either, commenting, "Help me wrap my mind around this Griner-for-Death trade. Feels like one of the lowest points in US foreign policy history? Or am I exaggerating? Give me some perspective. What compares? Bay of BIG 2.0?" Alleged Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout (R) walks past temporary cells ahead of a hearing at the Criminal Court in Bangkok on August 20, 2010. (CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images)Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., rapid response director Christina Pushaw tweeted out an image of the Nicolas Cage movie, "Lord of War," reminding her followers Bout is the man who inspired that movie.She commented, "So about the Russian criminal Biden freed in exchange for Brittany Griner—this movie covers his career funneling weapons to terrorists & conspiring to kill Americans. Biden just created an incentive for foreign countries to arrest more Americans to get more sweet deals like this."BRITTNEY GRINER GUILTY PLEA POSSIBLE 'GAMBLE' TO SPEED UP RUSSIA EXIT: EXPERTFormer CIA member John Sipher tweeted, "While it’s nice that Griner is home, we need to be honest. This is playing Putin’s game. Bout was an actual criminal charged through a credible legal process recognized around the world. Griner was a hostage taken in order to extort us."RedState author Bonchie tweeted, "To accomplish this, you put a murderous arms dealer back on the street, and you left the US Marine who has been there three years out of the deal. Griner shouldn't have been sentenced to nine years, but bragging like this? That's pretty gross."National Review correspondent Jim Geraghty blasted President Biden’s tweet touting the swap. He tweeted, "And all it cost the U.S. was putting the world's most notorious arms dealer, with a near-ocean of blood on his hands, who equipped armies of child soldiers and sold weapons to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, back on the metaphorical streets."CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Cherelle Griner (L), wife of Olympian and WNBA player Brittney Griner, speaks after U.S. President Joe Biden announced her release from Russian custody, at the White House on December 08, 2022 in Washington, DC. Griner was released as part of a prisoner swap that involved Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) Gabriel Hays is an associate editor for Fox News Digital. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Genya Savilov, Pool Photo via AP Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Sept. 8, 2022. The Quincy Institute recently raised the possibility that the American public is growing weary of supporting the war in Ukraine with a poll conducted on their behalf by the left-leaning Data For Progress. It’s worth considering the source. Quincy is a liberal think tank with a stable of experts who seem firmly in the Russia appeasement camp. But, after over seven months of war and billions in American aid, it is worth asking whether American support can continue. There are signs of concern other than the Quincy poll that the Biden administration had better heed. Favoring Ukraine, opposing Russia, disapproving Vladimir Putin and approving Volodymyr Zelensky are just about the only issues with bipartisan consensus. In a recent YouGov poll, 81 percent of Americans considered Russia “unfriendly” or an “enemy,” with Democrats at 83 percent and Republicans at 82 percent, and Putin at 76 percent disapproval (both Democrats and Republicans disapprove of Putin at 77 percent — meaning each dislikes Trump and Biden, respectively, more than Putin). The best support for Russia is in the 18-29 demographic, but there still 70 percent view Russia negatively and 64 percent disapprove of Putin. (Note: Unlike the Quincy poll, YouGov has asked a consistent set of neutral questions over time on Ukraine and Russia.) Support favors Ukraine against Russia at 69 percent to 5 percent, with Democrats at 81 percent support. Republicans and independents are at 64 percent and 63 percent respectively, but that does not translate as greater support for Russia, which is at 8 percent and 3 percent, respectively. As for Zelensky, his approval is at 56 percent approval v. 17 percent disapprove (Democrats: 70 percent; Republicans 53 percent). In fact, Zelensky has a higher approval than any domestic U.S. politician. Perhaps Zelensky should be running for U.S. president rather than Biden or Trump. But support for Ukraine may be weaker than the polling indicates. Americans still don’t care about foreign affairs. In the Quincy poll, the Ukraine war ranked last among issues. YouGov has just 6 percent saying “national security” is their most important issue (“foreign policy” clocks in at zero). And that sentiment is justified. The war has had much less impact on the United States than the rest of the world. While it may have exacerbated inflation, massive federal stimulus seems a bigger culprit. Unlike in Europe, there is little prospect of energy shortages here or any direct physical threat from Russia. The best explanation for support for Ukraine is an offended American sense of justice and moral outrage. Americans don’t like bullies, and Putin revels in playing that role. Unfortunately for Ukraine, injustice is a tough basis for political support and can be overwhelmed by self-interest. The Quincy poll seems rather accurate in showing weakening public support when a price is attached. When faced with rising gas prices and inflation, 58 percent are less likely to support Ukraine (note that 52 percent are less likely in the face of a nuclear threat — suggesting that Americans are more afraid of the price at the pump than thermonuclear war). Importantly, Americans cite inflation as their number one concern (YouGov) with Republicans at 25 percent, far ahead of anything else. Even though the $50 billion for Ukraine hardly compares to the multi-trillion stimulus of the past two years, that spending is a fat target for anti-inflation, deficit hawks. After all, stopping checks to foreigners is easier than stopping them for American citizens. A Republican House will likely exert more scrutiny over future Ukraine aid. Biden will have to make a much more robust case for continued aid and defending the rules-based international order is not going to cut it. The administration will need to shore up its argument by connecting aid with the interests of the United States. They will also need to provide some path toward an endgame. An endless war is not going to be popular, and Team Biden will pay dearly for unwillingness to provide decisive aid and arms earlier in the conflict. And it is the American public that is the most important constituency for Ukraine. The large European Union nations have proven to be unreliable, temporizing and unwilling to provide the kind of military support needed (just as Putin surmised). Germany, for one, remains in a state of unending debate on the provision of offensive weapons. And the French promise of a few self-propelled artillery could be more about marketing their defense industry than helping Ukraine. Support Ukraine, send Russia the bill Fortunately for Ukraine, the need for the Democrats to blame anyone but themselves for losing to Trump in 2016 puts them firmly in favor of more aid for anyone fighting Putin. Bolstering Republican support is the main issue that has to be addressed. Zelensky and Biden could rather easily engage in preventative action to forestall Republican weakening on Ukraine by explicitly stating that Russia will have to pay the bill for American military aid. The United States and western countries have frozen hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian central bank funds. In addition, they have seized personal assets from sanctioned individuals. It is hardly a stretch to consider any Russian-based company an arm of the state, which opens up even more assets for seizure. There is opposition to violating the “sovereign immunity” of Russia from elements of the international elite and even some Washington think tanks such as the increasingly-irrelevant Cato Institute. It seems to me (and I think the American public would agree) an unprovoked invasion, civilian massacres, nuclear blackmail and a patently illegal annexation are enough to suspend Russia’s international “rights.” In addition, it would be wise for Zelensky and the Ukrainian government to give American companies preference in any reconstruction. After all, if the United States is fronting the lion’s share of the military bill and providing the most effective weapons, Americans should be at the front of the line for the re-build. Already Ukraine has ejected the Russians from their nuclear industry in favor of Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse. Zelensky should make it clear there is more where that came from. Ukraine is on a pretty good run militarily, and Putin’s megalomania and sociopathy are playing right into Zelensky’s hands. But sympathy for the underdog can only last so long. As the bills pile up and the war drags on, the American public is likely to be less enthusiastic. The best time to ensure future support is to do it when times are good. Waiting for public opinion to soften is a recipe for disaster. And for Ukraine, it is American public opinion that matters more than any and every other nation. Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine’s military has shown the Guardian evidence that at least some of the Iranian-made drones used by Russia in its war were probably supplied after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February.Ukraine said it first noticed that Russia was using Iranian-supplied weapons in September. Since then, Russia has successfully used them to target Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, causing serious power shortages.Russia’s own weaponry stockpiles have been severely depleted by months of fighting, say western and Ukrainian intelligence officials, leaving it in search of help from allies such as Iran.In addition to more drones, anonymous western officials told CNN that Russia was planning to buy Iranian ballistic missiles. The same officials said that Iran had sent 450 drones to Russia and would send another 1,000 units of weaponry, including the expected missiles.Ukraine experts believe Russian specialists were involved in making the Iranian drones. Photograph: Isobel Koshiw/The GuardianA spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force said despite the recent deliveries of air defence systems from its allies, Ukraine still did not have the required equipment to defend itself from the Iranian missiles.In a large room somewhere in Kyiv, Ukrainian military intelligence has dismantled captured Iranian drones. The manufacturing date on the propeller of the Mohajer-6, an Iranian spy drone, reads February this year. As the propeller is just one of many components needed to make the drone, the February date indicates that the drone would have been supplied – if not made – after the invasion, according to Vasyl, a representative of Ukraine’s military intelligence, who cannot give his surname because of security reasons.Vasyl, who has been involved in pulling apart the drones, said the technical quality of the drones was surprisingly good. “We think that Russian specialists were involved but that’s just a theory,” he said, commenting on how Iran was able to develop the drones despite being under sanctions for decades. “Either the Iranians went [to Russia] or they have Russian specialists working there.”Though the Mohajer-6 drone does not have outer markings indicating that it is Iranian-made, components from inside the drone shown to the Guardian appeared to have Farsi markings.The Mohajer-6 can release rockets and is intended to be used multiple times. The other two drones being analysed, are what are known as “kamikaze” drones, as they implode and are destroyed on impact. They did not have any Iranian markings, but like the Mohajer, they have been shown off by Iran at multiple weapons expos, said Vasyl.The February date on the propeller indicates the drone would have been supplied – if not made – after the invasion. Photograph: Isobel Koshiw/The GuardianVasyl said several components used to make the drones were manufactured by western companies. But the components were banal and not included on the non-proliferation list, intended to control the sale of parts that can be used by the militaries of regimes under sanctions, such as Iran. Interestingly, said Vasyl, Iran had managed to manufacture replicas of many components originally produced in the west, such as an exact copy of a well-known German engine.The Iranian weapons have been instrumental in Russia’s strategy to disable Ukraine by cutting its energy supplies in the rear – while it attempts to recover momentum after several defeats on the battlefield.Since early October, Iranian technology has helped damage more than 30% of Ukraine’s energy system, according to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Ukraine’s authorities have introduced daily blackouts to stabilise the grid but predict that if Russia continues to attack, there could be a total blackout in some places this winter amid sub-zero temperatures.Iran initially denied reports that it had given Russia drones. But after two months, its foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, admitted Iran had supplied Russia with a small number of drones but added that Iran would not be indifferent if it were proved they were being used in Ukraine.The US dismissed Abdollahian’s admissions, saying that Iran thought it “could secretly help escape the consequences”.After the first barrage of Iranian-supplied drones was used by Russia, Ukraine downgraded diplomatic ties with Iran by revoking the accreditation of the Iranian ambassador to Ukraine. Ukraine’s envoy to the Middle East and north Africa, Maksym Subkh, told Ukraine’s ZN that breaking diplomatic ties was on the agenda and Zelenskiy would make a decision in the coming weeks.Iranian drones dismantled on a table in Kyiv. Photograph: Isobel Koshiw/The GuardianZelenskiy said on Sunday that if Iran were not supplying Russia with arms, the world “would now be closer to peace”.Rob Lee, a military expert with the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “The Russians are using loitering munitions more effectively – recently some Iranian, some Russian – and if they get the surface-to-air missile from Iran, that could be significant, too. A lot of this comes down to trying to predict the level of external support for Ukraine and for Russia and that’s difficult.”The confirmation, albeit limited, that Iran had supplied Russia against Ukraine sparked a row in Iran this week as some voiced concerns over the country’s close ties with Moscow. Some argued that Iran should have condemned the war in Ukraine, while other Iranians point to Zelenskiy’s relations with Israel as a reason to support Russia’s war. On Wednesday, during a visit to Tehran by Russia’s security chief, Nikolai Patrushev, Iran’s counterpart, Ali Shamkhani, called for dialogue to end the war and offered to play a role in resolving the conflict, AFP reported. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
FILE – This Oct, 16, 2019, file photo, shows a Halkbank bank ATM at the Parliament in Ankara, Turkey. (AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici, File) The Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday over whether a bank largely owned by Turkey’s government must face criminal charges that allege the bank evaded U.S. sanctions against Iran. Halkbank, which denies the allegations, appealed a lower court’s decision permitting the prosecution to move forward, which has caused tensions in U.S.-Turkish relations after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reportedly asked then-President Trump to quash the investigation. A number of justices grappled with the foreign policy impacts of permitting criminal prosecutions against foreign sovereigns in either federal or state courts, while also raising concerns about limiting the executive branch’s authority. Representing the bank, attorney Lisa Blatt argued that the bank has immunity because it is owned by a foreign sovereign. She told the justices that Congress never authorized courts to pursue criminal prosecutions against foreign sovereigns, and the 1976 Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA) also shields Halbank from prosecution. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, noting that the case has been prosecuted by both the Trump and Biden administrations, said it would be “pretty bizarre” for the court to prohibit the president from their “exercise of national security authority” and instead impose the justices’ own expertise. “Talk about big steps, that’s huge,” Kavanaugh said. But a number of justices also questioned the implications of Deputy Solicitor General Eric Feigin’s argument that the FSIA does not apply to criminal cases, and that even if it did, an exception for commercial activities allows the Halkbank case to move forward. Federal prosecutors indicted the bank in 2019 on charges including money laundering and bank fraud, alleging it aided Iran by unlawfully freeing up the country’s oil revenues and laundering $1 billion through the U.S. financial system. Justice Sonia Sotomayor inquired about the approval process in which U.S. attorneys decide to prosecute a case, suggesting that those decisions could set up a “danger on its own.” “I don’t know how I would want to leave to the vagrancies of individual prosecutors, whether it’s federal or state, the right to insult another nation by giving them this unbridled power to initiate suits,” Sotomayor said. Feigin argued that although no formal written approval process exists for approving those types of decisions, prosecutors did not take the decision to prosecute the Halkbank case lightly, and government attorneys would generally need to “run this kind of thing up the chain.” Justice Amy Coney Barrett similarly cautioned that “part of the questions that you’ve been getting about states is that, however carefully the United States might consider it before initiating such a prosecution, it may or may not be possible to control what states and municipalities do.” Multiple justices also raised potentially sending the case back to the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals because it did not consider the bank’s argument that the common law prohibits the prosecution. “If the 2nd Circuit didn’t consider this question, if it was an FSIA analysis, and if you concede that there is some general or international common law immunity for sovereigns that the court didn’t consider below, isn’t a remand appropriate?” said Justice Neil Gorsuch. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks to staff at the US Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia on December 14, 2021. (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP) /// [EXTERNAL] AFP-Photo ID : 9UM34P 2021-12-14T08:00:00+08:00 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks to staff at the US Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia on December 14, 2021. AFP/OLIVIER DOULIERY AFP-Photo ID : 9UM34R 2021-12-14T08:00:00+08:00 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks to staff at the US Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia on December 14, 2021. AFP/OLIVIER DOULIERY It's clear that President Joe Biden aspired to be a foreign policy president. "Diplomacy is back" became his mantra upon winning the election. While the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan may have shaped the foreign policy legacy of his first year and the Ukraine war his second, with negligence and cynicism, Biden’s foreign policy team now presides over a broader and more corrosive problem: a growing sense among the world’s rogues that genocide works. Consider the Uyghurs
: China today subjects them to the most industrial genocide of any group since Nazi Germany decided upon its "Final Solution" for Europe’s Jews. Just as then-President Franklin Delano Roosevelt ignored evidence and rationalized inaction, today, Biden’s environmental czar John Kerry has argued that setting a positive atmosphere to talk with Beijing on environmental concerns must trump engagement with regard to the eradication of a people, culture, and civilization. "Life is full of tough choices," Kerry explained. FACING CHINA'S UYGHUR GENOCIDE AT THE UN, MONEY TALKS AND ISLAM WALKS Or consider Tigray: Two years ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his mentor Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki launched a genocide against Ethiopia’s minority Tigray population marked by starvation and summary execution. They targeted men, women, and children equally and cut off the region from international assistance, independent media, and communications. Biden’s recognition of the travesty did not translate into substantive deterrence. Abiy simply dismissed a series of envoys sent by Biden. While the State Department welcomed the current ceasefire, Abiy and Afwerki appear inclined to continue their slow slaughter, the arrival of a small number of aid trucks notwithstanding. In effect, Tigray experiences today what Rwanda’s Tutsis would have been had the Hutu génocidaires won. Then, there is Rwanda. President Paul Kagame has been the continent’s antidote to genocide. Not only did his Rwandan Patriotic Front restore order to the East African country, but in recent years, Rwandan forces have also single-handedly prevented similar genocides in northern Mozambique and the Central African Republic. They did this at no cost to the international community. Meanwhile, the United Nations continues its quarter-century policy of allowing Hutu génocidaires to have free rein over refugee camps in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Despite the existential threat Rwanda continues to face, the Biden administration refuses to acknowledge the anti-Tutsi nature of the 1994 genocide. Rather than take a zero-tolerance position toward terror incitement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken defers to Hollywood narratives to defend those funding anti-Rwanda terrorism
. Nowhere has the Biden administration done more to greenlight genocide than with regard to the Armenians and Kurds. Biden broke diplomatic ground when, two years ago, he recognized the Armenian genocide, but Blinken’s cynical bothsiderism convinces Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev that he faces no consequence for the mass murder of Armenians. It was no coincidence that Azerbaijan and Turkish Special Forces attacked Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh on the 100th anniversary of the Ottoman attack on independent Armenia. That Biden continues to greenlight weapons sales to Azerbaijan while Aliyev promises to conquer Yerevan encourages the Azerbaijani and Turkish belief that they can complete the genocide Ottoman and Turkish officials began more than a century ago. Nor can Biden and Blinken pretend that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not telegraphed his desire to eradicate and ethnically cleanse Kurdish-ruled and populated districts in northern Syria. That Biden continues to push for F-16s for Turkey as Erdogan orders them to bomb civilian towns and villages is unconscionable. Diplomacy is not simply about great power competition, nor should it simply be a way for envoys or State Department employees to see the world on the government dime. Much can be done to prevent genocide if only there is will. Across the globe, however, dictators have discovered that when it comes to mass slaughter, the White House is a paper tiger. It simply does not care. Biden sees himself as a foreign policy whiz. If his administration continues apace, he might be remembered like Henry Kissinger, but for all the wrong reasons. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICA Michael Rubin (
@mrubin1971
) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
In considering U.S. strategy for Ukraine, fully understanding what drives Russian President Vladimir Putin is vital. Putin has often mentioned that as a young man in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), he once cornered a rat. The point of the story is that the rat turned on Putin, causing him to beat a quick retreat. The takeaway is whether the 70-year-old Putin is the young man today who realized that discretion was the better part of valor in confronting the rodent and withdrew. Or is Putin the cornered rat, in this case over Ukraine, that responds aggressively and attacks his enemy? The second issue is bluff. While Putin did not directly assert that he would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he did promise that Russia would not hesitate to employ “all available means” in defense of the motherland. His proxies, from academics to a former president and prime minister, Dimitry Medvedev, have been more direct in issuing that threat. And the Western press has been flashing warnings that a desperate Putin could resort to the nuclear option as his only way of “winning” in Ukraine. But would he? Too often, foreign personalities are regarded as if they were American, behaving as we would and not as they will. This failure in understanding and knowledge of other cultures has often been fatal. Vietnam, the second Iraq War and Afghanistan are monuments to these flaws. The political reality is that any effort to understand an adversary’s thinking often can be taken as capitulation or appeasement. That’s because recognizing actions on our part that provoked or caused events that were detrimental to our interests in essence assigns blame to us, something few administrations are happy to do. But seeking deeper understanding of others should never be taken as excusing adversarial responses, merely to explain them. From the time Putin became acting president on New Year’s Day 2000, he felt that the U.S. and the West ignored and demeaned him and Russia. The U.S.’s lack of respect and disregard for Russia explains why, in Putin’s view, the U.S. took a series of decisions (including NATO expansion; the second invasion of Iraq; and the arbitrary abrogation of the ABM [anti-ballistic missile] and INF [Intermediate Nuclear Forces] treaties) that Putin deemed intolerable. That unease began in 2001, when President George W. Bush began America’s military transformation, making space and anti-missile defense top priorities and undoing, in Putin’s view, the strategic bargain that had been struck between the U.S., USSR and, after 1991, Russia. But it was Bush’s decision to launch Iraqi Freedom in March 2003 and then the inexcusable blunder made in offering NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine at NATO’s 2008 summit in Bucharest, Romania, that hardened Putin’s distrust of the U.S. Putin probably knew or assumed that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and correctly reasoned that the war would throw the world into chaos. The NATO summit convinced Putin that the West and especially the U.S. no longer took Russia as a serious player and would act without any consideration of Moscow’s interests. The intervention into Georgia later in 2008 and then Ukraine in 2014 were unmistakable signs of Putin’s angst and anger over the West’s foreign policy. Further, Putin’s assessment of political disorder in the West, manifested by the Trump presidency and since, convinced him that weakness in the U.S. and NATO could be challenged with minimal risk. Russia’s military exercises on Ukraine’s borders in 2020 and 2021 and his demands not to expand NATO further east, not to offer membership to Ukraine and for a new strategic framework for Europe were rejected in late 2021. Whether his 2022 invasion was deterrable or not remains unknown. As Sun Tzu counseled, know your enemy. Clearly, in this case, we did not. So, is Putin the young man or the rat? Is his bluff real or hollow? The Biden White House is wrestling with these questions. Given no clear answer, the solution should be to hedge. That means providing Ukraine sufficient equipment and support for conducting full combined operations. It means making certain China knows that if Putin were to go nuclear, almost certainly so would Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. A line of diplomacy with Moscow must be opened now. Otherwise, Putin could be the rat. And, worse, we could be the young Putin. Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of “shock and awe.” His latest book is “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him on Twitter @harlankullman. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
BEIJING/BRUSSELS, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities behind a major trade expo in Shanghai pulled an opening ceremony address by the European Council president that was set to criticise Russia's "illegal war" in Ukraine and call for reduced EU trade dependency on China, diplomats said.The pre-recorded video by Charles Michel was meant to be one of several from world leaders and heads of international organisations, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the opening of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) on Friday, three European diplomats told Reuters.The diplomats, who cannot be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters they were surprised that the speech had been removed."President Michel was invited to address 5th Hongqiao Forum/CIIE in Shanghai," Barend Leyts, a spokesman for Michel told Reuters. "As requested by the Chinese authorities, we had indeed provided a pre-recorded message which was ultimately not shown. We have addressed this through the normal diplomatic channels."Neither of the co-organisers of the expo, China's commerce ministry and the Shanghai city government, responded to Reuters' requests for comment. A spokesman for China's foreign ministry denied awareness of the issue."I am not aware of the relevant situation," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a regular news briefing in Beijing on Tuesday. "I cannot comment on this."Other dignitaries who did speak at the ceremony after Xi included the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, the director-general of the World Trade Organization and the presidents of Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Belarus, according to the expo's official website.Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his country has hosted thousands of Russian troops before and during what Moscow calls its "special operation" in Ukraine.FOCUS ON RUSSIA AND TRADE[1/2] European Council President Charles Michel speaks with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Chinese President Xi Jinping via video conference during an EU-China summit at the European Council building in Brussels, Belgium April 1, 2022. Olivier Matthys/Pool via REUTERSThe European Council president's speech was set to be heavily critical of "Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine" and say Europe is learning "important lessons" from it, according to excerpts of the address provided by EU diplomats.Europe has been over-dependent on Russia for fossil fuels, leading to a trade imbalance, Michel was to say."In Europe, we want balance in our trade relations... to avoid over-dependencies," according to the diplomats familiar with what he was to say. "This is also true of our trade relations with China."Michel was also set to call for China to do more do put an end to the bloodshed in Ukraine.China has consistently refused to criticise Russia's aggression, which has ravaged cities across Ukraine and killed thousands of soldiers and civilians since it began on February 24."China has a role in using its influence to stop Russia's brutal war... through your so-called "no-limits" partnership with Russia," Michel was to say, referring to a pact announced by Xi and Putin in Beijing before the war began. "You, China, can help put an end to this."Both Xi and Michel are expected to attend and meet at the Group of Twenty (G20) heads of state summit in Bali next Tuesday and Wednesday.The president of the European Council is one of the European Union's top ranked officials whose role includes representing the bloc at international summits and bilateral summits with other heads of state.Since 2019, the EU has officially regarded China as a partner, an economic competitor and systemic rival.The EU's foreign policy service said in a paper last month that Beijing should now be thought of primarily as a competitor which is promoting "an alternative vision of the world order".Reporting by Martin Quin Pollard in Beijing and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Additional reporting by Eduardo Baptista in Beijing; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russia plans to deepen its military cooperation with Iran in return for Shahed drones that have been used to bomb Ukraine’s cities and energy network since September, according to Britain’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace.The west must hold Russia’s “enablers to account”, he said, in a Christmas update in which he was also forced to admit the UK had not completed a Ukraine “action plan” by the end of the year as promised.Speaking to MPs, Wallace said: “In return for having supplied more than 300 kamikaze drones, Russia now intends to provide Iran with advanced military components, undermining both Middle East and international security.”No other evidence was cited in support of Wallace’s statement, which is likely to be based on British intelligence, but it is consistent with warnings made by the US nearly two weeks ago, when it said it was concerned a deal would go ahead.The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, told MPs shortly afterwards that while Russia remained the UK’s “No 1 foreign policy challenge” he was “increasingly concerned about Iran’s behaviour,” an echo of Wallace’s comments.Giving evidence to the House of Commons liaison committee, made up of the MPs who chair select committees, Sunak added that he was focused on “the treatment of their citizens, what they’re doing in the region which is destabilising, and indeed the nuclear programme”.The west is closely monitoring Iran’s relationship with Russia at a time when the Kremlin is desperate to make up for shortages in munitions. Moscow has also asked Tehran for ballistic missiles to continue its bombing of Ukraine, but there is no sign of that deal going ahead, despite the request being made last month.The defence secretary said Russia was now “resorting to stripping jetliners for spare parts” as it desperately seeks to manufacture fresh missiles. It is estimated by Ukraine that stocks of Iskander missiles are at around a ninth or less of prewar levels.Wallace also sought to emphasise the human and financial costs to Russia of its invasion. There were “more than 100,000 Russians” who were dead, injured or had deserted since 24 February, the minister said, while Moscow’s army had lost 4,500 armoured vehicles and 140 aircraft and helicopters.A depleted Russian air force, the minister added, was only “conducting tens of missions a day as opposed to 300 in March” – but the long-range strikes continue to target Ukraine’s power grid, with a record 35 drones attacking the country on Monday.However, Wallace was also forced to admit, after questioning by Labour’s John Healey, that he had failed to publish the “plan of action” to support Ukraine into 2023 that had been promised in August.Intended to cover long-term equipment supply, funding and other support to Kyiv, the minister admitted the failure to produce one was disappointing. Instead, he said he hoped to see if it would be possible to debate the issue in parliament in January.There was also public confirmation of Sunak’s plan to hold an audit of the UK’s Ukraine policy and its weapons supply, criticised by one source as amounting to a “Goldman Sachs dashboard” exercise that could lead to the holding back of future military aid.The defence secretary sought to downplay its significance: “It’s understandable that the prime minister, being new in post, would seek an update on Ukraine and want to take a stock check of where we are.” Britain has already committed to match 2022’s £2.3bn worth of weapons supplies to Ukraine in 2023. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
NDAA FOCUS SHIFTS TO SENATE: Members of Congress have a perennial ritual of patting themselves on the back for passing the annual defense policy bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act, with a broad bipartisan consensus. This year was no exception. The House version of the bill passed last week 329-101, and the separate Senate version cleared the Armed Services Committee last month 23-3. The full Senate will take up the bill later this summer, and then the two versions must be reconciled in conference committee and reapproved by each chamber before being sent to the president to be signed into law. Because the NDAA is considered “must pass” legislation, it becomes a vehicle for amendments that could not pass as stand-alone legislation. But not every amendment that wins initial approval will make it into the final bill. HOUSE PASSES $839 BILLION DEFENSE SPENDING BILL SURPASSING BIDEN'S REQUEST WHICH PROVISIONS MIGHT NOT SURVIVE? Among the amendments that could be canceled by Senate conferees is one sponsored by Rep. Bradley Schneider (D-IL) that “directs the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and the Secretary of Defense to publish a report that analyzes and sets out strategies to combat White supremacist and neo-Nazi activity in the uniformed services and Federal law enforcement agencies.” That provision did not win a single Republican vote. Another amendment by Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) requires the defense secretary to report to Congress “the extent, if any, of the threat to national security posed by domestic terrorist groups and organizations motivated by a belief system of white supremacy,” and cites specifically “the Proud Boys and Boogaloo.” The progressive wing of the Democratic Party also managed to include amendments that would bar testing of the replacement for aging Minuteman III ICBMs, one of the three legs of America’s nuclear triad, while House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) got his amendment approved that would allow the Navy to retire nine Littoral Combat Ships, which clashes with the current Senate version, which would require the Navy to keep five of the flawed ships. Other provisions impose a temporary limit on arms sales to Saudi Arabia and require the secretary of state to develop guidance for “investigating indications that U.S.-origin defense articles have been used in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition.” An amendment by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Lou Correa (D-CA) would add methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly referred to as MDMA) and psilocybin as substances “authorized for a study on the use of therapies alternative to prescription opioids in the treatment of members of the Armed Forces.” Not every amendment addresses a vital aspect of national security. An amendment by Reps. Salud Carbajal (D-CA) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (D-WA) would prohibit the Executive Office of the President, Department of Defense, and State Department from “displaying flowers unless grown domestically or in a US territory.” The provision makes an exemption for “personal display and gifts from other countries.“ CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos to the Pentagon at 2 p.m. SHAKE-UP IN UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired his head of security services and his top prosecutor as he announced 651 criminal proceedings “regarding treason and collaboration activities of employees of prosecutor's offices, pretrial investigation bodies, and other law enforcement agencies.” The sacking of Ivan Bakanov, head of the SBU, Ukraine’s security services, and Iryna Venediktova, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, came as part of a shake-up, but neither was accused of treason. But in his nightly video address, Zelensky said that nearly 200 people are under suspicion of “working against our state,” including more than 60 employees of the prosecutor's office and the Security Service of Ukraine who remained in occupied territory. “The specific actions and any inaction of each official in the security sector and in law enforcement agencies will be evaluated,” said Zelensky. “Everyone who together with him was part of a criminal group that worked in the interests of the Russian Federation will also be held accountable.” READ MORE: ZELENSKY FIRES UKRAINE'S TOP SPY RUSSIAN ‘PAUSE’ ENDING: Russian forces are beginning what the Institute for the Study of War calls “a measured return from the operational pause” as it resumes limited ground attacks in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. “ISW continues to forecast that the end of the operational pause will be characterized by a fluctuating and staggered resumption of ground offensives,” the Washington-based think tank says in its latest war assessment. Russian troops continue to face stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, with the ISW reporting that Russian advances were repulsed near Siversk, Bakhmut, and Yakovlivka. The latest British intelligence assessment says that facing manning shortfalls and heavy casualties, the Russian forces in the Donbas have been using fighters from the Wagner Group private military company to reinforce their front lines. “Wagner has almost certainly played a central role in recent fighting, including the capture of Popasna and Lysyschansk. This fighting has inflicted heavy casualties on the group,” the assessment says, while noting Wagner is having its own staffing problems. “Wagner are lowering recruitment standards, hiring convicts and formerly blacklisted individuals. Very limited training is made available to new recruits,” the U.K. intelligence update says. “This will highly likely impact on the future operational effectiveness of the group and will reduce its value as a prop to the regular Russian forces.” MEDVEDEV SAYS CRIMEA ATTACK WOULD TRIGGER 'DOOMSDAY' RESPONSE SECRET SERVICE DENIES DELETING TEXTS: Members of the Jan. 6 committee investigating the attack on the Capitol say the Secret Service insists while some data may have been lost when the agency transitioned to new mobile phones, no relevant texts were deleted, and that it will provide the committee with texts from Jan. 5 and 6 by tomorrow. “Well, you can imagine how shocked we were to get the letter from the inspector general saying that he had been trying to get this information and that they had, in fact, been deleted after he asked for them,” said Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) on ABC yesterday. “Then there was a statement made by the spokesperson for the department saying that it wasn't true, it wasn't fair, and that they, in fact, had pertinent texts — and we go, fine, if you have them, we need them.” “If we end up getting the texts, then obviously, for whatever reason, the I.G. didn't,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). “If we don't, then it'll call out the Secret Service as having said that they had these texts, and they don't.” “So, is this anything big? We're not sure,” Kinzinger said on CBS. “But we need to chase every lead down on this, and there's a question of, why are they not cooperating with the I.G., the DHS I.G.?” TRUMP 'GLEEFULLY' WATCHED TV ON JAN. 6: KINZINGER PREVIEWS SUMMER HEARINGS FINALE USG BUYING CHINA DRONES? Sen. Rob Portman, ranking member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, is raising questions about why the U.S. government is buying commercial drones made in China. Portman questioned Samantha Vinograd, senior counselor for national security in the Department of Homeland Security, at a hearing Friday, who said under certain waivers, DHS does purchase drones from Chinese drone maker DJI. Citing a Washington Post report that Chinese drone maker DJI, a leading supplier of drones to U.S. law enforcement, has obscured its Chinese government funding, Portman urged how critical it is for Congress to pass the United States Innovation and Competition Act bill, since it includes the bipartisan American Security Drone Act, which would prohibit U.S. federal agencies from purchasing Chinese-made drones. “I share your concerns about these drones and would welcome a conversation on specific language,” Vinograd testified, saying she could give more specifics on the waivers in closed testimony. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The Rundown Washington Examiner: Biden and Saudis give dueling accounts of Khashoggi murder conversation Washington Examiner: Biden going 'back to the future' with 'zombie devotion to Arab dictatorships' Washington Examiner: Sanders blasts Biden for Saudi Arabia trip Washington Examiner: Iran capable of making nuclear bomb, senior official says Washington Examiner: Medvedev says Crimea attack would trigger 'doomsday' response Washington Examiner: Putin reshuffles top officials, including arms chief Washington Examiner: Zelensky fires Ukraine's top spy Washington Examiner: Pentagon has not observed Russia use Iranian drones in Ukraine yet Washington Examiner: International investigators find 'extensive' Russian human rights violations in Ukraine Washington Examiner: John Spencer is a world-renowned expert on urban combat. Here’s how he thinks the war in Ukraine is going Washington Examiner: Brittney Griner's lawyers tell Russian court she had been prescribed medical marijuana Washington Examiner: House passes $839 billion defense spending bill surpassing Biden's request Washington Examiner: Chinese hackers targeted DC journalists after 2020 election Washington Examiner: Trump 'gleefully' watched TV on Jan. 6: Kinzinger previews summer hearings finale Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden was right to fist-bump MBS: Six issues in US-Saudi relations more important than Khashoggi Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why are Republicans John Rutherford and Rob Wittman helping China to defeat the US Navy? New York Times: On Donetsk’s Front Line, Small Gains and Losses Impose a Heavy Toll New York Times: Ukrainian Plane Carrying Serbian Munitions Bound for Bangladesh Crashes in Greece Washington Post: Air Force veteran detained by pro-Russian separatists, brother says Wall Street Journal: Putin Seeks To Cement Iran, Turkey Ties Air Force Magazine: As Ukrainian Pilot Training Passes House NDAA, Legislators Work to Overcome Roadblocks Yonhap: South Korea, U.S. Defense Chiefs To Meet In Washington Next Week Washington Post: In Somalia, The Deadly Power Of A Resurgent Al-Shabab Breaking Defense: Despite Inflation Woes, Boeing Says It Can Maintain $80M Unit Cost for F-15EX The Drive: New Radars Are Giving Old Air Force F-16s Capabilities Like Never Before The Drive: Missiles Clobber A Retired U.S. Navy Frigate During RIMPAC CNN: U.S. Navy Challenges Chinese Claims In South China Sea For Second Time In A Week Air Force Magazine: Air Force Offering Even More Enlistment Bonuses for Certain Career Fields—Here They Are 19fortyfive.com: NATO Has a Problem: Russia Claims to Have Destroyed Warehouse Full of Harpoon Missiles 19fortyfive.com: Putin's War in Ukraine Is Back On 19fortyfive.com: You Can See the Wings: Watch A Russian Cruise Missile Strike Ukraine Calendar MONDAY | JULY 18 9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Chinese Military Lessons from Ukraine," with retired Army Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper, former senior director for China and Taiwan policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Bonny Lin, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power Project; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at the National Defense University's Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; and Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/pla-lessons-from-ukraine 1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The State of the Special Relationship: Four Years at the Heart of UK-U.S. Defense," with Edward Ferguson, defense minister counselor at the British Embassy https://www.csis.org/events/state-special-relationship 1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: "Transforming Digital Defense Modernization Strategies for Army IT," with Sean Frazier, federal chief security officer at OKTA; and Lauren Williams, senior editor at Federal Computer Week https://fcw.com/feature/tranforming-digital-defense 2 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos to the Pentagon. 3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue joint discussion on “maritime security," with Gen. Eric Smith, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps; and retired Navy Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue TUESDAY | JULY 19 8 a.m. — State Department and the Commerce Department virtual Supply Chain Ministerial Forum, with opening remarks from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo Livestream at https://www.state.gov 9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion issues including “NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, insights into intelligence sharing, concerns over Russian cyber threats and the outlook for NATO's possible expansion," with David Cattler, NATO assistant secretary Gen. for intelligence and security; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation 9 a.m. — East-West Center in Washington and the National Committee on North Korea virtual discussion: “DPRK Diplomacy in Europe,” with Democratic People's Republic of Korea Europe Ambassador: Kim Pyong-Il; and Nicolas Levi, scholar at the Polish Academy of Sciences https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Readiness Program Update,” with testimony from Army Vice Chief Gen. Joseph Martin; Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Adm. Randy Crites; Assistant Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith; Air Force Vice Chief Gen. David Allvin; and Vice Chief of Space Operations, Gen. David Thompson https://armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “The War in Ukraine and Energy Security and Energy Market Disruption," with Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners LLC; and Mark Nevitt, associate professor of law at Syracuse University https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event 10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Is China's Military Logistics Better than the Russian Military's?" with Joshua Arostegui, senior analyst at the Defense Department; George Shatzer, director of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute's Strategic Research and Analysis Department; James Roger Sessions, Defense Department analyst; Lonnie Henley, lecturer at George Washington University's Elliot School of International Affairs; and Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at National Defense University's Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-military-logistics 1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Lessons Learned: From the Ukraine-Russia Information War," with Shawn Chenoweth, technical lead program manager at Peraton; Jeremy Widener COGINT analyst at 3GIMBALS; and Daniela Fayer, publisher at Defense One https://www.defenseone.com/feature/lessons-learned 6:30 p.m. 1221 Avenue of the Americas, N.Y. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Potential flashpoints in Asia: A recap of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2022," with Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security's Indo-Pacific Security Program; Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute; David Gordon, senior adviser for geo-economics and strategy at IISS; and E.J. Herold, executive director of IISS-Americas Livestream at https://www.iiss.org/events 7 p.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Aspen Strategy Group three-day (19-22) Aspen Security Forum begins with a fireside chat with Chief of Space Operations, Gen. John “Jay” Raymond moderated by Mary Louise Kelly, NPR: and a second chat with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas moderated by Trymaine Lee https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2022-agenda-in-person-asf WEDNESDAY | JULY 20 7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army "Coffee Series” discussion with Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo https://www.ausa.org/events/ausa-coffee-series 9 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement two-day VA Healthcare Conference, with Rep. Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio; and Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., discussing "Saving Veterans' Limbs and Lives by Application of the PAVE Program" https://www.idga.org/events-veteransaffairshealthcare 9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Biden's Trip to the Middle East: Outcomes and Opportunities," with former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro; Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council's Middle East Security Initiative; and Kirsten Fontenrose, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/outcomes-and-opportunities/ 9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Does the War in Ukraine Herald a New European Era?" with Benedetta Berti, foreign policy and security analyst; Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; and Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center https://carnegie-mec.org/2022/07/20 10:45 a.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Day Two of the Aspen Security Forum with Gen. Charles Flynn, commanding Gen., U.S. Army Pacific; Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; CIA Director William Burns; White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan; U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander U.S. Special Operations Command; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and others. Full agenda at https://www.aspensecurityforum.org 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Now the Real Work Begins: The U.S.-Japan Alliance Agenda," with Edgard Kagan, special assistant to the president and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council; and Pamela Phan, deputy assistant secretary for Asia at the Commerce Department's International Trade Administration https://www.csis.org/events/now-real-work-begins THURSDAY | JULY 21 8:30 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Advancing Abraham Accords Through Regional Air Defense," with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 9 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Iran and the Regional Order," with Mahsa Rouhi, research fellow at the National Defense University's Center for Strategic Research https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register 9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Lt. Gen. Michael Langley for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Africa Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings 3 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion:”Sweden and Finland's application to join NATO and the future of security in Europe," with Finnish Ambassador to the U.S. Mikko Hautala; and Swedish Ambassador to the U.S. Karin Olofsdotter https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ambassadors WEDNESDAY | JULY 27 TBA Fort Bragg, North Carolina — Association of the U.S. Army two-day, in-person “Warfighter Summit and Exposition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Alejandro Villanueva, former Army Ranger and former offensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens; as well as leaders from Army Forces Command, the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/warfighter/index.cfm 9 a.m. 10 Daniel French Dr. S.W. — Korean War Veterans Memorial “Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony,” in which an addition featuring names of more than 36,000 American war dead and 7,000 Koreans who fought alongside them will be unveiled, with President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attending. https://koreanwarvetsmemorial.org/event/wall-of-remembrance-dedication/ THURSDAY | JULY 28 1:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow, director, CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat QUOTE OF THE DAY “I would say, given what we know about what's expected to be delivered, the commitments we've made, my own feelings from visiting Ukraine, seeing the entire country on a war footing, I don't think this will go on for years. I think this will go on for months. Would I give it until Christmas? Maybe. But I don't agree with estimates that this will go on for years. I think the Ukrainians will fight and eventually destroy the Russians in Ukraine.” Retired Army Maj. John Spencer, an expert on urban warfare, in an interview published in this week’s Washington Examiner magazine. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — A delegation of U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday met with Taiwan’s president, who promised to deepen military cooperation between the two sides despite objections from China, which claims the island as its own territory.
The group was one of many U.S. delegations President Tsai Ing-wen has welcomed in recent years even as Beijing has stepped up diplomatic and military harassment of Taiwan.
China responded to foreign visits by holding large-scale military exercises seen by some as a rehearsal for a blockade or invasion. Beijing has not ruled out use of force to reunite Taiwan with mainland China, although the sides have been separated since a civil war in 1949, and most Taiwanese prefer to keep the status quo of de-facto independence.
READ MORE: China imposes sanctions on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon over sales to Taiwan
Tsai thanked the lawmakers for coming, saying it was a chance to deepen ongoing cooperation in semiconductor chip design and manufacturing, renewable energy and next-generation 5G mobile network.
“Taiwan and the U.S. (will) continue to bolster military exchanges. Going forward, Taiwan will cooperate even more actively with the U.S. and other democratic partners to confront such bold challenges as authoritarian expansionism and climate change,” Tsai said.
Tensions between the U.S. and China inflated after Washington shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that Beijing maintains was an unmanned weather balloon. Both sides are also in opposition on the war in Ukraine, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Sunday that Beijing could be considering providing weapons to Russia for the war.
Taiwan remains a flash point. Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official, said over the weekend that Taiwan “has never been a country and it will not be a country in the future.”
“We are here to affirm the shared values between the U.S. and Taiwan — a commitment to democracy, a commitment to freedom,” California Rep. Ro Khanna said. “The U.S. under President Biden’s leadership seeks peace in the region.”
He is accompanied by Reps. Tony Gonzales of Texas, Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts and Jonathan Jackson of Illinois. The group met with their legislative counterparts Monday, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company founder Morris Chang.
Khanna also offered a tribute to former President Jimmy Carter, who recently entered hospice care. He was president when Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, under which the U.S. must ensure Taiwan can defend itself.
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Liz Truss has said she is considering relocating the British embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in a controversial move that would break with decades of UK foreign policy in order to follow in the footsteps of Donald Trump.In a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York, the prime minister told Israel’s caretaker leader, Yair Lapid, about a “review of the current location” of the building, Downing Street said in a statement.The status of Jerusalem, which Israelis and Palestinians claim as their capital, is one of the most sensitive issues in the long-running conflict.East Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza Strip, has been considered occupied Palestinian territory under international law since the six-day war in 1967.Like the vast majority of the international community, the UK’s position until this point has been that the divided city should host consulates, rather than embassies, until a final peace agreement is reached.Trump’s 2018 fulfilment of an election campaign promise to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital prompted international condemnation, and led to protests and clashes in which Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians. The then UK prime minister Theresa May criticised the move at the time.On Thursday, the Israeli prime minister tweeted his thanks to Truss for what he described as “positively considering” the move. “We will continue to strengthen the partnership between the countries,” he said.מודה לידידתי הטובה, ראשת ממשלת בריטניה ליז טראס, שהודיעה כי היא שוקלת בחיוב את העברת שגרירות בריטניה לירושלים בירת ישראל- אנחנו נמשיך לחזק את השותפות בין המדינות 🇮🇱🇬🇧צילום: אבי אוחיון, לע״מ pic.twitter.com/0DZB0TGMsl— יאיר לפיד - Yair Lapid (@yairlapid) September 22, 2022
The Guardian understands that the embassy move was one of a range of options put forward to Truss by Foreign Office staff in late 2021 during her stint as foreign secretary. However, she did not make any substantial policy changes during her two years at the foreign office.The prime minister appears to have first publicly floated the idea of relocating the embassy in a letter to the Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) parliamentary group during the Tory leadership campaign over the summer.She wrote: “I understand the importance and sensitivity of the location of the British embassy in Israel. I’ve had many conversations with my good friend ... Lapid on this topic. Acknowledging that, I will review a move to ensure we are operating on the strongest footing within Israel.”At a hustings with CFI, she vowed that “under my leadership, Israel will have no stauncher friend in the world. That’s what I’ve done as foreign secretary and trade secretary. I don’t just talk the talk – I walk the walk.”Pressed in the House of Commons on 6 September by the backbench Tory MP Michael Fabricant to follow the US and move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the Foreign Office minister Amanda Milling said: “The British embassy to Israel is in Tel Aviv. I am aware of the possibility of a review, but will not speculate further on this point.”Her remarks suggest the review is only just under way, but advocates of the move inside the Conservative party claim the proposal will prove less controversial than even a few years ago due to the Trump administration setting a precedent, and the thaw in relations between Israel and some Arab countries following the Abraham accords.Downing Street has been contacted to explain how long the review will take.Other than the US, only three states have embassies to Israel in Jerusalem – Kosovo, Honduras and Guatemala – which all moved from Tel Aviv after the US relocation. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Former President Donald Trump says he would successfully negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war "within 24 hours."Trump, who decades before becoming president was famously credited with authoring The Art of the Deal, which was ghostwritten, argued that his negotiation skills would easily end the conflict in an all-caps post to Truth Social on Thursday. Trump maintained that the war "would never have happened" if he had not been defeated by President Joe Biden in 2020, while asserting that he could still bring a quick end to the conflict as president."IF I WERE PRESIDENT, THE RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR WOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED, BUT EVEN NOW, IF PRESIDENT, I WOULD BE ABLE TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO THIS HORRIBLE AND RAPIDLY ESCALATING WAR WITHIN 24 HOURS," wrote Trump. "SUCH A TRAGIC WASTE OF HUMAN LIFE!!!"In a Truth Social post earlier on Thursday, Trump warned that the Biden administration's plan to send 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine could lead to "nukes" from Russia. He claimed that ending the war, which is now in its 12th month, would be "easy."
A Ukrainian tank is pictured Saturday driving through a bombed-out area of Siversk, Ukraine. The inset images feature former President Donald Trump, top, at a rally in Minden, Nevada, on October 8, 2022, and the cover of his 1987 book "The Art of The Deal," bottom. Trump on Thursday argued that he has the ability to easily negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war "within 24 hours." Spencer Platt; Justin Sullivan; Wojtek Laski
"FIRST COME THE TANKS, THEN COME THE NUKES," Trump wrote. "Get this crazy war ended, NOW. So easy to do!"Trump loyalist and Republican Congressman Troy Nehls of Texas also touted the prospect of the former president easily solving the conflict earlier Thursday.Nehls suggested during a Fox News interview that the war would "end" if Biden asked Trump to call Russian President Vladimir Putin."If we really want to end this war, Joe Biden, you need to call Donald Trump," Nehls said. "Donald Trump will call Vladimir Putin and end this war. We must stop this war, and Donald Trump can do it."Although Trump and some of his allies have argued that the conflict would easily end under the former president's leadership, neither Ukraine nor Russia appear willing to negotiate.This week, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were "now impossible since there are no conditions for them either de facto or de jure."Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a Thursday interview with Sky News that he is "not interested" in negotiating with Putin, arguing that the Russian president also "doesn't want negotiations because he doesn't want peace."Thursday was not the first time that Trump has offered to step in and quickly bring an unlikely end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Last year, the former president volunteered to lead negotiations and argued that Ukraine should have voluntarily ceded territory to Russia to secure peace.Trump has also claimed that U.S. foreign policy under the Biden administration had "taunted" Putin, which he said was "almost forcing" the Russian president to order the invasion of Ukraine.On January 20, 2021, Biden's inauguration day, The Washington Post reported that Trump had made a total of 30,573 false or misleading comments during his presidency.Newsweek has reached out to Trump's office for comment. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Vladimir Putin has arrived in Iran for his first trip outside the former Soviet Union since the invasion of Ukraine.The Russian president is due to meet Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as he seeks to bolster the few foreign alliances his regime still enjoys.
Mr Putin has described Western sanctions against Moscow as a declaration of economic war, and is focusing his attempts at international diplomacy on China, India, and Tehran.His visit to the Iranian capital is his first trip beyond the old USSR since he travelled to China in February."The contact with Khamenei is very important," said Yuri Ushakov, Mr Putin's foreign policy adviser. "A trusting dialogue has developed between them on the most important issues on the bilateral and international agenda." It comes after US accusations about Iranian drones being sent to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.
Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian rejected such accusations in a call with his Ukrainian counterpart onFriday.But Iran's army ground forces commander Kiumars Heydari told student-led news agency Young Journalists Club (YJC) on Tuesday: "Currently, we are ready to export military equipment and weapons."Sky's Diana Magnay says it is very difficult to confirm and the world will likely only be able to tell if or when the Iranian drones are seen on the battlefield.Meanwhile, on the ground in Ukraine:• Russian cruise missiles struck villages around Odesa early on Tuesday, wounding six people, Ukraine said• At least two civilians were killed and 15 more wounded by Russian shelling in the last day, Ukraine's presidential office said• Donetsk's governor said four Russian strikes hit the city of Kramatorsk, killing at least one person• Ukrainian forces struck a key bridge in Russia-controlled territory in the south of the country with US-supplied HIMARS rockets, a Russian-installed official said• Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev said Russia will prevail in Ukraine and will set terms for a future peace deal'The new reality has started' - listen to Ukraine War DiariesAlso travelling on Tuesday is Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska, who is in Washington DC. She has rarely been seen since the war began, and has already met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.Mr Blinken reiterated America's commitment to supporting Ukraine, and commended her for her work with civilians dealing with trauma. Ms Zelenska is due to meet her US counterpart Jill Biden later today.Her trip comes at a busy time for her husband, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is seeking new officials after sacking the head of Ukraine's security service and prosecutor general over claims of treason.Monday saw another 28 people dismissed from the security service in what Mr Zelenskyy described in his nightly address as a "personnel audit".Ukraine's parliament approved Mr Zelenskyy's decision to dismiss Ivan Bakanov as head of the security service.Read more:Family return to bombed home - and find pet cat aliveVideo shows 'last minutes' of young girl killed in Russian strike Image: Jill Biden meets Olena Zelenska in Ukraine in May - they will now meet in Washington Russia's rate of advance 'likely to be very slow'Meanwhile, the UK's Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update that Russia has struggled to sustain effective combat power since the start of its invasion of Ukraine.The update adds that Moscow's problem is "likely becoming increasingly acute".The Ministry of Defence also wrote: "As well as dealing with severe under-manning, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbas or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson sector."The update also adds that while Russia may still make further territorial gains, their "operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow".Putin to hold talks over Ukraine grain blockadeThe blockade of grain exports from Ukraine has been one of the most devastating knock-on impacts of the war, and Tuesday will also see talks aimed at getting them moving again.While visiting Tehran, Mr Putin will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been seen as a potential mediator on some global issues caused by the invasion."Discussions with Putin will focus on grains, Syria and Ukraine," a senior Turkish official told Associated Press."The talks will try to solve the issues on grain exports."Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN are expected to sign a deal later this week aimed at resuming the shipping of grain from Ukraine across the Black Sea.Ahead of Mr Putin's meeting with Mr Khamenei, Iran's oil ministry's news agency SHANA reported the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russian gas producer Gazprom signed on Tuesday a memorandum of understanding worth around $40bn. Russian independent TV channel back on the airElsewhere, an independent Russian TV channel is back on the air four months after being forced to close over its content relating to the war in Ukraine.TV Rain is now broadcasting from the Latvian capital Riga via YouTube, likely to be the only way most people in Russia will be able to see it.As they do so, the European Commission is preparing for all outcomes regarding gas flows to Europe through Russia's Nord Stream 1 pipeline, including the possibility that deliveries do not restart on Thursday when work on the pipeline is due to be completed, a spokesperson said.According to The Wall Street Journal, European Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said: "We're working on the assumption that it doesn't return to operation," referring to Nord Stream 1.Meanwhile, the Commission has proposed earmarking €500m to buy defence equipment in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the military aid EU nations have offered to Kyiv. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
[1/6] South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks at an interview with Reuters in Seoul, South Korea, November 28, 2022. REUTERS/Daewoung KimSEOUL, Nov 29 (Reuters) - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of an unprecedented joint response with allies if North Korea goes ahead with a nuclear test, and urged China to help dissuade the North from pursuing banned development of nuclear weapons and missiles.In a wide-ranging interview with Reuters on Monday, Yoon called on China, North Korea’s closest ally, to fulfil its responsibilities as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. He said not doing so would lead to an influx of military assets to the region."What is sure is that China has the capability to influence North Korea, and China has the responsibility to engage in the process," Yoon said in his office. It was up to Beijing to decide whether it would exert that influence for peace and stability, he added.North Korea's actions were leading to increased defence spending in countries around the region, including Japan, and more deployment of U.S. warplanes and ships, Yoon noted.It is in China's interest to make its "best efforts" to induce North Korea to denuclearise, he said.When asked what South Korea and its allies, the United States and Japan, would do if North Korea conducts a new nuclear test, Yoon said the response "will be something that has not been seen before", but declined to elaborate what that would entail."It would be extremely unwise for North Korea to conduct a seventh nuclear test," he told Reuters.Amid a record year for missile tests, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said this week his country intends to have the world's most powerful nuclear force. South Korean and U.S. officials say Pyongyang may be preparing to resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 2017.North Korea's tests overshadowed multiple gatherings this month of international leaders, including the Group of 20 conference in Bali, where Yoon pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping to do more to rein in North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations. Xi urged Seoul to improve relations with Pyongyang.Ahead of the G20, U.S. President Joe Biden told Xi that Beijing had an obligation to attempt to talk North Korea out of a nuclear test, although he said it was unclear whether China could do so. Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said before the meeting that Biden would warn Xi that North Korea's continued weapons development would lead to an enhanced U.S. military presence in the region, something Beijing is not eager to see.South Korea and the United States have agreed to deploy more U.S. "strategic assets" such as aircraft carriers and long-range bombers to the area, but Yoon said he did not expect changes to the 28,500 American ground forces stationed in South Korea."We must respond consistently, and in lockstep with each other," Yoon said, blaming a lack of consistency in the international response for the failure of three decades of North Korea policy.China fought beside the North in the 1950-53 Korean War and has backed it economically and diplomatically since, but analysts say Beijing may have limited power, and perhaps little desire, to curb Pyongyang. China says it enforces the UNSC sanctions, which it voted for, but has since called for them to be eased and, along with Russia, blocked U.S.-led attempts to impose new sanctions.OPPOSES CHANGE TO TAIWAN 'STATUS QUO'Boosting ties and coordination with Washington is the core of Yoon's foreign policy, a focus highlighted by the main item on his desk: a sign saying "The Buck Stops Here", a gift from Biden.Like his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, Yoon has treaded cautiously amid the rising U.S.-China rivalry. China is South Korea's largest trading partner, as well as a close partner of North Korea.On rising tensions between China and Taiwan, Yoon said any conflict there should be resolved according to international norms and rules.Democratic Taiwan, which China claims as its own, has come under increasing military and political pressure from Beijing, which has said it would never renounce the use of force against the island."I am firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo unilaterally," Yoon said.When asked about a role in a Taiwan conflict for South Korea or the U.S. troops stationed there, Yoon said that the country's forces would "consider the overall security situation" but that their most imminent concern would be North Korean military attempts to take advantage of the situation."What is important is responding to the imminent threat surrounding us and controlling the possible threat," he said.REGIONAL COOPERATIONYoon has also made increasing cooperation with Japan a core goal, despite lingering legal and political disputes dating to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula.South Korea, Japan, and the United States have agreed to share real-time information for tracking North Korean ballistic missile tests.As part of its biggest military expansion since World War Two, Japan is expected to procure fresh munitions, including longer-range missiles, spend on cyber defences and create a combined air, sea and land command headquarters that will work more closely with U.S. forces in Japan.Japan's military ambitions have long been a sensitive issue in neighbouring countries, many of which were invaded before or during World War II.Yoon's predecessor stopped many of the trilateral exercises and nearly left an intelligence sharing deal with Tokyo as relations soured.Now Japan faces more and more threats from North Korea’s missile programme, including tests that overfly Japanese islands, Yoon said."I believe the Japanese government cannot be asleep at the wheel with the North Korean missile flights over their territory," he said.Reporting by Soyoung Kim, Jack Kim, and Josh Smith; Writing by Josh Smith; Editing by Nick Macfie and Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The mother-and-daughter pair are making their first festival rounds with their new company, HiddenLight Productions, and a documentary shot in Afghanistan. Hillary Clinton is no stranger to film festivals. In 2020, the former Secretary of State traveled to Sundance and Berlin to promote the Hulu docuseries about her career. However, this year Clinton arrived at the Toronto International Film Festival with her daughter Chelsea in a very different capacity — as executive producers. The pair launched the new film and TV company HiddenLight Productions in 2021, but the fruits of those labors just emerged this week.
Friday saw the premiere of the documentary “In Her Hands,” a portrait of former Afghan female mayor Zarifa Ghafari, which the company produced with Netflix. The movie, co-directed by Afghan filmmaker Tamana Ayazi and Oscar nominee Marcel Mettelsiefen (“Watani: My Homeland”) screened the same day as the release of the unscripted AppleTV+ miniseries “Gutsy,” which features the two Clintons in conversation with other famous women. The connection between those two projects hints at the overall focus of BrightLights as its executives make the rounds at TIFF. “Someone asked me if this movie is political,” Chelsea told IndieWire in a brief conversation with her mother at the festival before the “In Her Hands” premiere. “Well, being a woman is political.” The pair weren’t in town long enough to see other movies, but “we need a list,” Hillary said, adding that their team was scouting for talent in the lineup.
Co-founded with British producer Sam Branson, the Clintons’ company differs from Higher Ground — the production outfit launched by Barack and Michelle Obama — in that they have no exclusive studio deals akin to Higher Grounds’ first-look with Netflix. Instead, they have been exploring a wide array of opportunities, including partnering on acquisitions from festivals. While they remain focused on non-fiction projects for now, the Clintons haven’t ruled out the possibility of narratives. The Obamas recently made a break from their own documentary projects to produce an adaptation of Mohsin Hamid’s novel “Exit West.”
There has been some skepticism in the industry about the recent content development efforts by high-profile public figures whose background isn’t producing, from the Obamas to Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Archwell, but the early output from the Clintons does seem to lean into their brand. “In Her Hands” merges the older Clinton’s background in foreign policy with her female-focused agenda.
Though Hillary struggled to find an endpoint to the Afghanistan war during her time in the Obama administration, she spent a lot of time in the country and was drawn to the 26-year-old mayor Ghafari’s story as a result.
“It’s a compelling but sometimes difficult-to-watch story,” she said. “I had the great privilege and challenge when I was Secretary of State to travel to Afghanistan numerous times, and I fell in love with the people in that country, particularly the women and girls who were able to go to school and practice their professions — and as in Zarifa’s case, enter politics, enter government, make their contributions as the active and involved citizens that they were.” “In Her Hands”Netflix
She briefly touched on the fallout of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ultimately led Zarifa to flee with her family to Germany.
“Tragically, the story that you’re about to see is one that’s almost unimaginable,” Hillary said. “To be forced to leave your home, your friends, members of your extended family, to seek a new life elsewhere. This is an important story, but it’s a story that I hope people will think of as not only about Zarifa, even not only about women or the country of Afghanistan, but the universal values it represents.”
Chelsea then stepped up to the microphone to note that when Ayazi fled Kabul with one bag last year, she brought a hard drive containing the footage from the film.
“I think that we have to honor that, respect that, pay attention to that dedication to ensure that we all have a chance to bear witness to what the women of Afghanistan have and continue to endure,” Chelsea said. “It is with incredible gratitude and humility that we ask you to watch and listen and not look away.”
The end result is a thoughtful if at times scattershot portrait of Ghafari’s story, but often elevated by the revealing access obtained by the directors. That includes not only footage of Ghafari, her estranged bodyguard, and others in her close circle, but also several Taliban fighters on the outskirts of Kabul. The movie captures the sad ending to democracy in Kabul, but also sets up the latest chapter in its subject’s career, as she attempts to help women who remain in the country from abroad.
“In Her Hands” is one of two recent documentaries capturing the fallout of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, as Matthew Heineman’s recent Telluride premiere “Retrograde” (produced by National Geographic) follows the same timeline from the perspective of an Afghan general who also wound up fleeing the country. Together, the two movies not only go beyond the most visible images of the withdrawal from last summer but provide jolting reminders that the daily struggle continues there even as the headlines have faded.
Zhafari, who joined the filmmakers in a Q&A after the screening, teared up as she explained what it was like to watch the movie from the audience. “I’m full of emotions,” she said. “I promised myself not to cry, but that’s not happening. It’s hard not to keep your heart beating through all that pain that you have been through.” Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine's President Zelensky tells conscripts to sabotage Putin's army from within as EU says Russian leader is NOT bluffing about using nuclear weaponsKyiv leader urges Putin's conscripts to 'save your life and help liberate Ukraine'Zelensky added: 'Sabotage any activity of the army [and] hinder any operations'He even told newly mobilised troops to desert their units for Kyiv's 'free territory'It came as EU foreign policy chief said Putin is deadly serious about using nukes Published: 06:08 EDT, 24 September 2022 | Updated: 06:38 EDT, 24 September 2022 Ukrainian president Zelensky has urged wavering Russian conscripts to sabotage the army from within - or abandon their posts and flee to 'free territory' within Ukraine.In a televised address, the Kyiv leader told those set to be sent to the front by Putin: 'Hide from the Russian mobilisation by any means. Avoid conscription letters. Try to get to the free territory of Ukraine.'But if you get into the Russian army, sabotage any activity of the enemy, hinder any Russian operations, provide us with any important information about the occupiers – their bases, headquarters, warehouses with ammunition. President Zelensky is today meeting the families of slain Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv. He has handed posthumous Golden Star medals to the wives and children of fallen servicemen Zelensky confers with a heartbroken war widow at Kyiv's presidential palace earlier today A young girl poses with the Golden Star award given by the president to her late father'And at the first opportunity, switch to our positions. Do everything to save your life and help liberate Ukraine.'It came hours before EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that the Kremlin boss is not bluffing about his willingness to use nuclear weapons in the flailing invasion.Putin boasted last week that Russia had 'various weapons of destruction' and was willing to use 'all the means available to us', adding: 'I'm not bluffing.'Borrell told the BBC this morning: 'Certainly it's a dangerous moment because the Russian army has been pushed into a corner, and Putin's reaction - threatening using nuclear arms - it's very bad. The mother of a fallen soldier, dressed in black, waits to receive the award on her son's behalf Golden Star medals of the Ukrainian Army are handed to the bravest defenders of the nation Soldiers and their families await being handed the prestigious Hero of Ukraine honours today'When people say it is not a bluff, you have to take them seriously.'Russia's disastrous invasion of its neighbour has again been exposed as a shambles with dead men sought for enrolment by desperate commanding officers.Videos also show reluctant conscripts at recruitment offices and staging points hitting the bottle and drinking themselves senseless as military commanders try to coral them into order before boarding buses and planes.Meanwhile, flights out of Russia have sold out and border crossings into nearby Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan are gridlocked by up to 30 hours as enterprising Russians turn to scooters to beat the queues out of Putin's totalitarian nightmare.Walking to the border point is not allowed, but scooters have been so far permitted, and local entrepreneurs are selling them to Russians seeking to flee Putin's call-up. Advertisement | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
(AP Photo/Gemunu Amarasinghe, File) U.S. President Joe Biden waves as first lady Jill Biden watches standing at the top of the steps of Air Force One before boarding at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. President Biden said during and interview broadcasted on Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if China tries to invade the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing as part of its territory, adding to displays of official American support for the island democracy in the face of Chinese intimidation. (AP Photo/Gemunu Amarasinghe, File) President Biden clarified this week during a CBS interview that U.S. forces would be marshaled to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a proclamation that sent ripples through the global policy arena. While decades of U.S. policy regarding Taiwan has largely held onto the ‘strategic ambiguity’ outlined in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, this summer has seen a profound turn in American posturing with regard to China. This should not come as a major surprise, as Biden’s administration has repeatedly taken steps to address the growing threat of Chinese aggression in the Pacific and abroad — notably including the expansion of strategic partnerships, increased foreign military sales to the region and a toughened rhetoric, which includes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) unprecedented visit to Taipei during her Pacific rounds. But if U.S. policy now hinges on a commitment to defend Taiwan from an “unprecedented attack,” then the best course of action to take in the immediate future is bolstering military security force assistance (SFA) activities. SFA — also referred to as ‘security cooperation’ depending on the defense lexicon — is a partnership/sponsorship between two nations whose security interests coincide, where the greater power provides equipment, training and initial operational capabilities to the weaker partner. SFA/SC is most often and errantly misunderstood as chiefly consisting of foreign military sales. While equipment sales are a critical and necessary — and the most expensive — element of security cooperation, enabling operational capabilities requires American service personnel to assist in the implementation, training and sustainment of that equipment to share in the burden of collective security and achieve mutual security objectives. This requires units capable of training partners in the use of equipment, operations and self-sufficiency. The most notable and recent example of SFA operations is the U.S. Air Force’s mission to enable Afghan Air Force pilots to perform their own air power missions with U.S.-exchanged A-29 and MD-530 aircraft to fight the Taliban. The train/advise/assist mission, it should be noted, was one of the only positive findings from the SIGAR report on the Afghanistan campaign. Similarly, the Army’s Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) proved “the Army got it right” by utilizing its SFA capability to aid the over-exerted Brigade Combat Teams from across the force. Admittedly, those programs benefited from access to Overseas Contingencies Operations (OCO) funds, a seemingly bottomless well of money allocated to the equally boundless War on Terror, both of which now exist as pieces of American policy history and are no longer active tranches of defense priorities. But that the programs proved to be successful in their missions to enable partner forces to subsume U.S. security obligations to scale demonstrates the potential for SFA as an extension of U.S. foreign policy and strategic posturing. Taiwan then, and this new and unequivocal policy, stands as the next opportunity for American military forces to expand U.S. security and diplomatic interests in what is arguably the key region of strategic competition. While the criticality of SFA and security cooperation grows daily, the Department of Defense has taken inexplicable steps to divest this capability, both in terms of functional devolution and resource allocation, by terminating funding for SFA programs in Africa once empowered under Title 10 and Title 22 authorizations. Congress has an opportunity to reinvigorate SFA at a grand scale in order to fully empower deterrent capabilities aimed at Beijing in both Taiwan and Africa. They have clear vectoring from the principle under Article 2 of the Constitution giving such rights and power to the executive office. But the muscle on the bone to execute deterrence rests with Congress under Article 1. Herein lies a tremendous opportunity to overcome a growing capabilities gap and decisively commit to curbing Chinese ambitions in the Pacific. The timing is coincidental and apropos that President Biden should pivot American policy with Taiwan when the defense enterprise is simultaneously expanding its SFA obligations while listless in its future strategy and resourcing for the program writ large. This issue is currently being discussed at senior levels of Air Force leadership, per a senior source I’ve recently interviewed as part of an ongoing investigation into this issue. The Army has institutionalized SFA into brigade form but lacks strategic vectoring. The Navy — arguably the most important player in American-Pacific interests — has a fledgling SFA capability, but little initiative or guidance for maritime applications. Taiwan just became the locus of American security cooperation interests, and both Congress and the Defense Department are at a critical juncture in responding if the United States truly wishes to deter Beijing from upending the security status quo in the Pacific. Ethan Brown is an 11-year veteran of the U.S. Air Force as a Special Operations Joint Terminal Attack controller. He is currently the senior fellow for Defense Studies at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress, a contributor to the Diplomatic Courier, and has written for the Modern War Institute (West Point) and RealClearDefense. He can be found on Twitter @LibertyStoic. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine. All times EST.
2:30 p.m.: A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reporter was interviewing a Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut when a Russian bomb hit a neighboring house. His dramatic footage captures what happened next: frantic battlefield first aid to save a man's life.
2:00 p.m.: Portugal is repairing some its Leopard 2 tanks and will send three to war-torn Ukraine next month, Prime Minister Antonio Costa said on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
The announcement came after Costa said on Saturday the southern European nation was in talks with Germany to obtain parts needed to repair inoperable Leopard tanks in Portugal's inventory.
"Right now we are implementing the recovery and maintenance plan for the Leopard 2 tanks and, according to the plan, we are in a position to be able to send three of them in March," Costa told parliament.
1:45 p.m.: First, the Ukrainian president flew overhead on his way to Washington. Then on Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew overhead to Britain. And then to Paris. Fourth time lucky? He might stop by the European Union headquarters where the bloc’s leaders meet on Thursday — security concerns permitting, The Associated Press reported.
Almost a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with tens of billions of euros in EU aid committed, nine packages of sanctions, military hardware and almost monthly visits to Kyiv, the 27-nation bloc looks set to finally get the political man of the moment on its home turf.
Even if the novelty of the Ukraine leader traveling outside his war-torn country has somewhat worn off, the meeting with his 27 counterparts, top EU officials and legislators in Brussels is packed with political symbolism.
“If President Zelenskyy has chosen to come it is because he has an interest,” said a diplomat from a major EU nation. “Here he can address the leaders who have made the most important efforts since the war started,” added the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the visit had not been officially announced yet.
The EU is in the midst of brokering a new sanctions package worth some 10 billion euros ahead of the February 24 one-year anniversary of the war. And there is still plenty of scope for exporting more military hardware to Ukraine as a Russian spring offensive is expected.
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1:05 p.m.: Talk of a crackdown on corruption and a new effort to cut powerful tycoons down to size seems to sweep through Ukraine every year, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
But the prospects for substantive change tend to melt away like snow in springtime, leaving a barren landscape that’s all too familiar to reform advocates both inside and outside the country.
So, it’s no surprise that a slew of high-level dismissals and headlines on corruption investigations have left some observers skeptical that it will amount to substance more than show.
But with Ukraine in the grips of a devastating Russian bid to subjugate the country by force, the stakes for the government to stamp out a problem that has hampered its development since independence in 1991 are higher than ever before, experts say.
Like the war itself, it is now an existential issue for Ukraine, some analysts say.
12:50 p.m.: Russia's embassy to Britain on Wednesday warned London against sending fighter jets to Ukraine, saying such a move would have serious military and political ramifications for the entire world, Reuters reported, quoting the TASS news agency.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in London on Wednesday, where he called on Britain to give Ukraine fighter jets as the next stage in the West's supplies of weapons to help Kyiv fight off the Russian invasion.
Britain said it would start training Ukrainian pilots in how to fly advanced NATO-standard fighter jets, but has not yet pledged to send planes.
In a statement cited by Russian state news agencies, the Russian embassy said the "bloodshed, next round of escalation and resulting military and political consequences for the European continent and the entire world", that would come about from the sending of advanced fighter jets to Ukraine would be on London's conscience.
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12:10 p.m.: Ukrainian tennis player and Olympic bronze medalist Elina Svitolina pushed for a total ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Paris Games in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday.
Svitolina, who won her bronze medal in singles at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, is visiting Ukraine for the first time since Russia invaded the country last year. She is the latest to call for a complete ban on athletes from Russia and Belarus because of the war.
“It’s going to be very sad, and the wrong message would be sent to the world if Olympics going to stay with the decision to put them [Russia and Belarus] under a neutral flag,” Svitolina said in the interview. “I don’t think this is the right decision.”
Svitolina, who had a baby with husband Gael Monfils in October, said sports and politics in Russia are inseparable. “You can see that in Russia, sports are connected to the government,” Svitolina said.
11:45 a.m.: The International Olympic Committee pushed back against the mayor of Paris on Wednesday, insisting there were no plans for “a Russian or Belarusian delegation” at the 2024 Games while also acknowledging that some athletes from those countries could be welcomed, The Associated Press reported.
The IOC statement came a day after Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said no Russians or Belarusians should be allowed to compete at next year’s Olympics because of their involvement in the war in Ukraine. “It is not possible to parade as if nothing had happened, to have a delegation that comes to Paris while the bombs continue to rain down on Ukraine,” Hidalgo said Tuesday.
Olympic leaders have set out a path for athletes from Russia and Belarus who have not actively supported the war to try to qualify and compete as “neutral athletes” without a national identity such as team uniforms, flags and anthems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with many sports leaders and athletes, have consistently said all potential competitors from Russia or Belarus should be banned from Paris, extending a decision that was applied in most Olympic sports within days of the war starting last February.
Olympic bodies and lawmakers in the Baltic and Nordic regions of Europe have also publicly supported Ukraine in standing against the IOC’s preferred route. They have warned of a possible boycott, and are expected to join an online call of sports ministers Friday hosted by the British government.
11:25 a.m.: Ukrainian boxer Oleksandr Usyk urged the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to ban Russia from the Olympic Games, saying any medals they win in Paris next year would be tainted by the blood of his countrymen who have died in Russia's year-old invasion, Reuters reported.
Ukraine has threatened to boycott the Games over the IOC's willingness to let athletes from Russia and its close ally Belarus return to international competition for the 2024 Games, albeit as neutrals without national flags or anthems.
Russians have competed as neutrals in the past three Olympics as punishment for state-backed doping, but Ukraine hopes to secure widespread international support for banning Russian and Belarusian athletes from the Paris Olympics.
"I am a Ukrainian athlete. I won an Olympic gold in boxing in 2012. I am the current world heavyweight champion," Usyk said in a statement addressing IOC President Thomas Bach.
11:05 a.m.: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video on Twitter Wednesday by United 24, the charitable organization he launched in support of the country, underscoring his argument that the International Olympic Committee should not allow Russian athletes to participate in the Paris Olympics. He called for Ukraine’s partners to join him in opposing Russian athletes’ participation in the games.
10:40 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will ask a summit of European Union leaders on Thursday for more arms to fight Russia and powering ahead with Kyiv's bid to join the EU, Reuters reported, quoting a senior Ukrainian official.
Zelenskyy visited Britain on Wednesday, winning a pledge to train Ukrainian pilots on advanced NATO fighter jets, and was expected in the European Union hub Brussels on Thursday for talks among the 27 national leaders of the bloc.
"My president travels to get results," said the Ukrainian official Wednesday. "He is on a foreign trip today. First and foremost, the main result is - weapons.... We need the support of the European Council to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine."
10:05 a.m.: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is flying to Paris to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron, according to German government sources, Reuters reported.
Macron will host the meeting between the three leaders in the French capital on Wednesday, the French presidency said.
German broadcaster ntv had first reported Scholz's trip, citing unnamed sources.
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9:25 a.m.: In his State of the Union speech, U.S. President Joe Biden said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine "has been a test for the ages" and suggested that the West had passed, at least for the time being. The test will continue — and it could get tougher, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said in its new analysis.
Speaking almost a year after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion on February 24, 2022, Biden said the "murderous assault" had raised a stark question: "Would we stand for the most basic of principles?" he asked, including "sovereignty," the "right of people to live free from tyranny," and "the defense of democracy."
"One year later, we know the answer," he said. "Yes, we would. And yes, we did."
Past tense. When it comes to the future, Biden provided fewer details, assuring Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova that "America is united in our support for your country. We will stand with you as long as it takes."
It may take a long time.
9:10 a.m.: Ukraine will use all international legal mechanisms to try to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to justice for the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over east Ukraine in 2014, Reuters reported, quoting Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin.
"The difficulty of obtaining evidence and functional immunity do not allow prosecuting the president of the RF [Russian Federation] in national courts," Kostin wrote on Twitter Wednesday. "We will seek to employ all the existing international legal mechanisms to bring him to justice."
International prosecutors said they had found "strong indications" that Putin approved the use in Ukraine of a Russian missile system that shot down MH17, but that evidence of his involvement was not concrete enough to lead to a criminal conviction.
8:50 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed for fighter jets to ensure his country’s victory over Russia in a dramatic speech before the U.K. Parliament, where he also thanked the British people for their support since “Day One” of Moscow’s invasion, The Associated Press reported.
Hundreds of lawmakers and parliamentary staff packed the 900-year-old Westminster Hall, the oldest — and unheated — part of Parliament for Zelenskyy’s speech. It was only his second confirmed journey outside Ukraine since Russia invaded nearly a year ago.
Zelenskyy, wearing his trademark olive drab sweatshirt, urged allies to send his country jets, saying combat aircraft would be “wings for freedom.” He brought a gift of a Ukrainian Air Force helmet, inscribed by a Ukrainian pilot with the phrase: “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it.”
The president, who planned to meet later with King Charles III, noted that the British monarch was a qualified military pilot. “The king is an Air Force pilot,” Zekenskyy said, and “in Ukraine today, every Air Force pilot is a king.”
In past wars, “evil lost,” Zekenskyy told lawmakers. “We know Russia will lose and we know victory will change the world.″
He also called for stronger sanctions against Moscow, until “Russia is deprived of any possibility to finance this war.”
He said he was speaking on behalf of the brave people of his own country — and thanked Britons for their bravery. “London has stood with Kyiv since Day One,” he said, handing over a combat helmet as a thank you to Britain.
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8:00 a.m.: An international team of investigators has suspended its criminal investigation into the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, saying they have insufficient evidence to launch any new prosecutions, The Associated Press reported.
Dutch prosecutor Digna van Boetzelaer said Wednesday that “the investigation has now reached its limit. All leads have been exhausted” as the team began laying out the evidence it uncovered in its long-running investigation.
Dutch prosecutors said in their summary of findings that “there are strong indications that the Russian president decided on supplying” a Buk missile system to Ukrainian separatists. A Buk system was used to bring down MH17 on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew.
However, “Although a lot of new information has been discovered about various people involved, the evidence is at the moment not concrete enough to lead to new prosecutions,” they added.
Russia has always denied any involvement in the downing of MH17.
The announcement comes nearly three months after a Dutch court convicted two Russians and a Ukrainian rebel for their roles in shooting down the Boeing 777 and killing all 298 people on board on July 17, 2014. One Russian was acquitted by the court.
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7:25 a.m.: Britain announced an immediate surge of military deliveries to Ukraine to help it fend off an intensifying Russian offensive and pledged to train its pilots as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on a rare visit abroad, Reuters reported.
London was Zelenskyy's first stop on only his second trip abroad since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 after a visit to the United States in December. He is due to travel onto Brussels on Thursday where the European Union is holding a summit.
Greeted by Sunak on the steps of Number 10 Downing Street to applause from onlookers inside and outside the British prime minister's office, Zelenskyy thanked Britain for its support "from the first days of the full-scale invasion".
"Thank you so much, we are proud, really, and have very good relations with Rishi," Zelenskyy said.
The meeting was short, with Sunak quickly arriving in parliament to attend the weekly prime minister's questions.
Zelenskyy, who had close ties with ex-prime minister Boris Johnson, visits Britain at a time when Russia is bringing tens of thousands of recently mobilized troops to the battlefield to try to break through Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine. Since Johnson resigned last year, Sunak has pledged to continue to support Ukraine, visiting Kyiv in November to tell the Ukrainian leader: "We are with you all the way."
7:05 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in the United Kingdom for talks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, his second known trip abroad since Russia's unprovoked invasion of his country one year ago.
Sunak’s office said Zelenskyy will visit Ukrainian troops training in Britain on February 8 and address the British Parliament. Additionally, Buckingham Palace said Zelenskyy would meet with King Charles.
Sunak will announce expanded training for the Ukrainian military, including training for fighter jet pilots and marines. The training for pilots would ensure they are able to fly NATO-standard fighters in the future, the statement said.
For months, Kyiv has been urging the West to increase its military support, including the possibility of providing fighter jets.
The United States, Britain, Germany, and other Western allies recently relented and approved sending hundreds of battle tanks, armored vehicles, and other heavy weaponry to Ukraine amid expectations that Russia is gearing up for a new major offensive, possibly as early as this month.
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6:10 a.m.: Reuters reported that Estonia's intelligence service said on Wednesday it believed Russia still has the strength to exert "credible military pressure" on the Baltic region and that the security risk in the region has risen for the medium and long term.
"A military attack against Estonia is unlikely in 2023 because Russia's military capabilities are engaged in Ukraine," the Estonian service said in its annual report.
"However, in the mid-to-long term, Russia's belligerence and foreign policy ambitions have significantly increased the security risks for Estonia," it added.
NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have all sharply boosted defense spending in response to Russia's 2014 capture of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine last year.
5:40 a.m.: Britain's King Charles will hold an audience with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday, PA Media reported citing Buckingham Palace, according to Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
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3:35 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Britain on Wednesday to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Sunak's office said, according to Reuters and The Associated Press.
This is Zelenskyy’s first trip to the U.K. since the war began and he plans to address Parliament. Zelenskyy will visit Ukrainian troops currently training in Britain.
Sunak's office announced plans to expand training for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to sea and air — including fighter jet pilots and marines — and accelerate the supply of military equipment.
"President Zelenskyy's visit to the UK is a testament to his country's courage, determination and fight, and a testament to the unbreakable friendship between our two countries," Sunak said in the statement.
2:20 a.m.: Reuters reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that European Union moves to add what he called "exemptions" to its price cap on oil products showed that Russian oil was still in demand.
"Yesterday we saw another change to the European Union's regulations, the exemptions," he said in comments published by the state-run TASS news agency.
"This once again emphasizes that our oil products are in demand in Europe, once European politicians indicated that their actions defy any logic and take such decisions and think how to get out of this situation," he said.
The European Union said last week it agreed to set price caps on Russian refined oil products to limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the EU introduced several exemptions to the way its price cap works.
It said in its latest guidance update that the price cap would no longer apply after crude oil or petroleum products were released for free circulation in a jurisdiction outside Russia and handed over to the landed purchaser.
The price cap no longer applies to Russian petroleum products when the blending operations in a third country "result in a tariff shift" or changes in the oil product type.
The West also imposed a ban on sea-borne Russian oil purchases in December and a price cap of $60 per barrel, which is still above the current price of Russia's flagship Urals crude blend.
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12:55 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Biden "for the powerful words of support."
"We are grateful for U.S. leadership in helping Ukraine, for solidarity of the entire U.S. people," Zelenskyy tweeted Wednesday. "Our values are the same, our common goal is victory."
12:10 a.m.: U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday the United States is united in support for Ukraine as it opposes a Russian invasion, and that the U.S. will stand with Ukraine "as long as it takes."
Speaking during his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, Biden said government united NATO, built a global coalition and stood against the aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The United States and other NATO allies have provided billions of dollars in military aid, including air defense systems, to bolster Ukrainian forces. U.S. and European Union sanctions have also sought to impose a financial cost on Russia.
Biden noted that his address to lawmakers last year came days after Putin launched what Biden called a "brutal attack against Ukraine" and a test for the world.
"Would we stand for the most basic of principles? Would we stand for sovereignty? Would we stand for the right of people to live free from tyranny? Would we stand for the defense of democracy?" Biden asked.
Putin has criticized Western aid to Ukraine as being a threat against Russia, while saying Russia will prevail in Ukraine.
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Some information in this report came from Reuters, Agence France-Presse and The Associated Press. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A significant number of ailment reports made in relation to the so-called Havana Syndrome are likely psychosomatic or the symptoms of other illnesses. Still, a 2022 intelligence community expert study found it plausible that some of the reported incidents had been caused by a pulse-burst electromagnetic device.
That bears note because the Russian government has the established means, tradecraft, and historic record of employing radio frequency devices to collect intelligence and cause physical harm. The U.S. intelligence community has documented as much.
That the intelligence community has now assessed, as the Washington Post first reported, that no Havana Syndrome reports are likely to be the result of a radio-frequency energy device is reflective of a fundamental failure of intelligence analysis. Taking advantage of the conventional illness or psychosomatic nature of some Havana Syndrome reports, the intelligence community "found no pattern or common set of conditions that could link individual cases."
Put simply, by fixating on finding a common thread between all Havana Syndrome reports rather than examining the most credible and concerning reports better supported by intelligence reporting, the intelligence community has given itself analytical space to dispute all reports. This is a prime example of the overdue deference to bureaucratic comfort and overly exhaustive senior rank editing that too often defines U.S. intelligence analysis.
This finding isn't ultimately about good intelligence analysis. Instead, it's about the intelligence community's fear of the foreign policy ramifications that would result from finding suspected Russian culpability. Proven itself incapable of confronting this concern, the U.S. intelligence community should ask its two closest intelligence partners, the UK and Australia, to conduct an independent investigation. It should share all available intelligence reporting to that effect.
The evidence for this intelligence failure is, in part, prima facie obvious.
Take the Washington Post's report that "The intelligence assessment also examined whether an adversary possessed a device capable of using energy to cause the reported symptoms. Of the seven agencies, five determined that it was 'very unlikely,' while the other two said it was 'unlikely.'"
This is a very odd conclusion to make, seeing as the National Security Agency publicly admitted in 2014 that it had intelligence reporting indicating a foreign government [referencing Russia] "possessed high-powered microwave system weapon that may have the ability to weaken, intimidate, or kill an enemy over time and without leaving evidence." I have also reported that the CIA has been briefed on the technical characteristics of a radiofrequency device that operates in the nanosecond pulse range, thus obfuscating nearly all means of effective counter-detection.
The intelligence community has worked hard to explain away the slate of Havana Syndrome reports as far as possible. For just one example, President George W. Bush and then-First Lady Laura Bush, and individuals in close proximity to their villa were afflicted by significant Havana Syndrome symptomatic ailments during the 2006 G-8 Summit in Germany. I understand from sources that the intelligence community did not re-investigate this incident following my December 2021 reporting on it.
Want to ignore Russia? Well, then, first, you need to consider Russia's more recent rhetoric.
A 2012 Russian government paper reported possession of RF/MW capabilities "'that influence the psycho-physical state of an individual with their fields and rays' and bragged, 'in a number of areas not long ago, our specialists were far ahead of the Americans.'"
A 2019 Russian army report, now removed from the internet, claimed that RF/MW weapons "have significantly decreased in size and can be installed on a tank turret and even at the head of a tactical missile ... The [target] begins to hear non-existent noises and whistles ... When exposed to low-frequency electromagnetic radiation, the human brain releases chemicals that regulate its behavior. [The RF/MW devices] can cause symptoms of various diseases..."
True, reports of Havana Syndrome have sharply dropped off since the start of the war in Ukraine. That gives the intelligence community breathing room to put this issue to bed.
For the time being. Given space, the Russians will advance. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
US defence and foreign policy “elites” are seeking to turn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine into a “casus belli for World War III,” says Sky News host James Morrow. It comes as every branch of the US military looks likely to fall short of its 2022 recruitment goals, according to NBC News.“The experts cited by NBC pointed to a range of factors behind the problem, but it is worth noting that they found that a record low number of those eligible to serve would now even consider it,” Mr Morrow said. “Could it maybe be that those who might otherwise have considered serving are now turned off by the prospect of putting on the uniform to fight and die not for the values of a human resources department?” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
get the free app Updated on: December 21, 2022 / 4:25 PM / CBS News CBS News Live CBS News Live Live Washington — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived at the White House on Wednesday to meet with President Biden and thank him for tens of billions of dollars in aid the U.S. has provided to his country to repel Russia's ongoing assault, kicking off his first known trip outside Ukraine in the 300 days since the invasion began.Mr. Biden rolled out a red carpet at the White House for the arrival of the Ukrainian leader, who was wearing an olive-green sweatshirt, cargo pants and boots. The two met in the Oval Office, where Mr. Biden said the U.S. "stands with the great people of Ukraine" and called Zelenskyy a "great leader."Mr. Biden and Zelenskyy were scheduled to hold a news conference at 4:30 p.m. ET before Zelenskyy heads to Capitol Hill, where he will address a joint meeting of Congress at 7:30 p.m.Planning for the trip was cloaked in secrecy given the extraordinary security concerns that come with a wartime leader traveling outside his country. Zelenskyy told reporters it was a "great honor" to be welcomed to the White House, and expressed his appreciation "from my heart, from the hearts of Ukrainians, all Ukrainians" for Mr. Biden's "support and leadership."In a moment that seemed to catch Mr. Biden off guard, Zelenskyy presented him with a combat medal that a Ukrainian captain fighting on the front lines had given him. "He's very brave and he said give it to a very brave president," Zelenskyy said, noting that the captain commands a unit using a weapons system provided by the U.S. President Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House on Dec. 21, 2022. Alex Wong/Getty Images Shortly before Zelenskyy arrived, the State Department unveiled a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $1.85 billion, bringing the total military aid sent to Ukraine to $22 billion. In a first, the U.S. is sending a sophisticated Patriot missile battery that can repel Russian missiles and aircraft. The new package also includes hundred of thousands of mortars and artillery shells, dozens of vehicles and specialized kits that greatly enhance the effectiveness and accuracy of bombs dropped from fighter jets. "We're going to continue to strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend itself, particularly air defense," Mr. Biden said. "And that's why we're going to be providing Ukraine with a Patriot missile battery and training your forces to be able to accurately use it."Zelenskyy's visit comes as Russia has ramped up strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure as winter sets in, with Russian forces last week launching one of the largest assaults on the capital of Kyiv since the war began.The Ukrainian president's speech to Congress also comes as U.S. lawmakers work to pass a sweeping $1.7 trillion government spending package that includes nearly $45 billion in military, humanitarian and economic assistance for Ukraine. The measure would be one of the final pieces of legislation passed by the current Congress, and lawmakers were moving with urgency to clear the omnibus bill before a Friday deadline to avert a partial government shutdown.The roughly $45 billion included for Ukraine is higher than the $37.7 billion requested by the White House in November and, if approved by Congress, would be the latest tranche of emergency assistance provided to Ukraine as it continues to fight Russia.Lawmakers have allocated more than $65 billion in total aid, which includes financial and humanitarian assistance, to Ukraine since the invasion, though some House Republicans have expressed opposition to continuing direct funding to the country. This new package would bring U.S. assistance to over $100 billion. Updated 13m ago How to watch Biden and Zelenskyy's press conference What: President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold a news conference Date: Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022Time: 4:30 p.m. ETLocation: The White HouseOn TV: Live coverage on CBS television stations (find your local station here)Online stream: Live on CBS News in the player above and on your mobile or streaming device. 2:42 PM Zelenskyy thanks Biden for U.S. support in Oval Office meeting Zelenskyy thanks Biden for U.S. support for Ukraine during White House visit 06:47 The two world leaders began their bilateral meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Biden saying he's honored to be at Zelenskyy's side. Mr. Biden said it's hard to believe it's been 300 days since Russia launched its assault on the Ukrainian people. Mr. Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to use "winter as a weapon." "The Ukrainian people continue to inspire the world. I mean that sincerely. Not just inspire us but inspire the world with their courage and how they have [shown] the resilience and resolve for their future," the president said.The American people, Democrats and Republicans alike, stand proudly with Ukrainians, Mr. Biden said. "We're going to continue to strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend itself, particularly air defense," Mr. Biden said, adding that's why the U.S. is giving Ukraine the Patriot missile defense system. Mr. Biden called Zelenskyy the man of the year in the U.S., referencing the designation bestowed upon Zelenskyy by Time magazine.For his part, Zelenskyy said he wanted to make the trip sooner but the situation was too difficult. He expressed his appreciation for the United States' support under Mr. Biden's leadership. He also expressed his gratitude to Congress for approving funding. "Thanks from ordinary people to your ordinary people, Americans. I really appreciate it," Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy then presented Mr. Biden with a Ukrainian captain's combat award, saying the soldier wanted Mr. Biden to have it. President Joe Biden holds a Ukrainian soldier's medal presented to him by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Dec. 21, 2022. Oliver Contreras/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images "Undeserved, but much appreciated," Mr. Biden said of the soldier's award he was being given. Mr. Biden said he and his late veteran son, Beau Biden, had a tradition of giving each other challenge coins. He said he would give one for Zelenskyy to pass along to the soldier. 2:07 PM Bidens welcome Zelenskyy to the White House Mr. Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcomed the Ukrainian president to the White House on the South Lawn shortly after 2 p.m. ahead of the leaders' 2:30 p.m. meeting. Both the American and the Ukrainian flag adorned the White House as Zelenskyy emerged from an SUV, wearing an olive-green sweatshirt.Zelenskyy shook hands with the Bidens and posed for a photograph before Mr. Biden, one arm around Zelenskyy's shoulder, ushered him inside. 12:55 PM Zelenskyy lands in the U.S. A White House official confirmed Zelenskyy has landed in the U.S. Events scheduled for the afternoon are set to be on time, the official said.Zelenskyy shared photos on Instagram of his arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, where he was met by Rufus Gifford, chief of protocol for the U.S., and Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in the U.S. on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Instagram "I am in Washington today to thank the American people, the President and the Congress for their much-needed support. And also to continue cooperation to bring our victory closer," Zelenskyy wrote in a caption accompanying the photos. "I will hold a series of negotiations to strengthen the resilience and defense capabilities of Ukraine. In particular, we will discuss bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and the United States of America with US President Joseph Biden."He continued: "Next year, we must return the Ukrainian flag and freedom to our entire land, to all our people." 12:49 PM Senate confirms new U.S. ambassador to Russia ahead of Zelenskyy address As Zelenskyy arrived in the U.S., the Senate overwhelmingly confirmed Lynne Tracy as U.S. ambassador to Russia in a 93 to 2 vote. GOP Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Rand Paul of Kentucky opposed the nomination.Tracy replaces John Sullivan as the top American diplomat in Russia. Sullivan, who was appointed to the post by former President Donald Trump, stepped down as ambassador in September. A career member of the Foreign Service, Tracy was most recently U.S. ambassador to Armenia, and served as senior adviser for Russia Affairs at the State Department's Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.Ahead of the confirmation vote, Schumer highlighted the Senate's timing for approving Tracey as ambassador before Zelenskyy's speech and said it underscores U.S. support for Ukraine."By passing this omnibus and by confirming a new ambassador, we can send President Zelenskyy back to Ukraine with the message that the Senate, the Congress and the American people stand unequivocally behind the people of Ukraine, and we're backing that up with real dollars and real resources," he said, referencing the $1.7 trillion spending package that includes $45 billion in aid to Ukraine. 12:18 PM U.S. announces $1.85 billion aid package, including Patriot missile battery The State Department said the new U.S. aid package would total $1.85 billion, comprising $1 billion in new funding approved by the White House and $850 million from the Defense Department. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the latest round of military assistance will include the Patriot air defense system, which is effective in bringing down cruise missiles, short range ballistic missiles and aircraft. The technology is something Ukraine has long asked for, especially as Russia has ramped up its aerial assaults.Blinken used his "drawdown" authority delegated by the president to release $1 billion in funding that Congress has already approved. In addition to the Patriot system, the aid package includes hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds and mortars; 37 mine-resistant vehicles; 2,700 grenade launchers and small arms; and "Joint Direct Attack Munitions," which the State Department said would provide "the Ukrainian Air Force with enhanced precision strike capabilities against Russia's invading forces."The U.S. has provided about $22 billion in military assistance to Ukraine alone since the war began, on top of tens of billions of dollars in financial and humanitarian assistance. 11:38 AM Pelosi urges all members to attend Zelenskyy address In a letter to colleagues, Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged all members of the House to attend Zelenskyy's address in the House chamber, saying the speech will be "etched into history as well as part of your legacy.""As the fight for freedom in Ukraine wages on, we look forward to hearing his inspiring message of courage, unity and determination," the speaker said.Pelosi said the evening is "fraught with meaning for me.""My father, Congressman Thomas D'Alesandro, Jr., was a Member of the House in 1941 when Winston Churchill came to the Congress on the day after Christmas to enlist our nation's support in the fight against tyranny in Europe," she wrote. "Eighty-one years later this week, it is particularly poignant for me to be present when another heroic leader addresses the Congress in a time of war — and with Democracy itself on the line."The speaker noted that there "will be no guests allowed in the House Gallery – with the exception of official guests of President Zelenskyy." 11:04 AM H.R. McMaster discusses Zelenskyy's U.S. visit CBS News foreign policy and national security contributor H.R. McMaster joined Errol Barnett and Aziza Schuler to discuss what's at stake for Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travels to Washington to meet with Mr. Biden and address Congress. Watch his analysis in the video below: H.R. McMaster discusses Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's U.S. visit 07:27 10:46 AM Schumer on Zelenskyy's visit: "This is a day to remember" in history of Congress Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hailed the upcoming arrival of Zelenskyy to the U.S., calling him an "ambassador of freedom" and highlighting that the Ukrainian leader will deliver his remarks from the same place British Prime Minister Winston Churchill himself delivered a wartime address to U.S. lawmakers in 1941."This will be a day to remember in the history of the United States Congress when we welcome President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine," said Schumer, wearing Ukraine's colors of blue and yellow. "It's always a high honor to welcome a foreign head of state to Congress, but it's nearly unheard of to hear from a leader who is fighting for his life, fighting for his country's survival, and fighting to preserve the very idea of democracy. It shows the importance President Zelenskyy places on us continuing to give robust help."The visit by Zelenskyy, who will address lawmakers in a joint meeting Wednesday evening, comes as the Senate is moving toward a vote on final passage of the omnibus package, which includes $45 billion for Ukraine. Schumer noted the Ukrainian leader's arrival comes at a "crucial moment" for the Senate, and he urged his colleagues to complete their work swiftly.The New York Democrat also encouraged House Republicans to attend Zelenskyy's speech to hear him "describe the horror his people have endured at the hands of Vladimir Putin." While emergency aid to Ukraine has largely received broad bipartisan support in the Senate, some GOP members of the House have balked at sending more U.S. dollars to the country. That opposition, and with Republicans poised to take control of the House next month, has led to uncertainty as to whether more aid packages for Ukraine would win approval from the next Congress."I hope that Donald Trump's friendship with Putin is not motivating House Republicans to turn a blind eye to Ukraine's suffering and desperate need for help," Schumer said. "Because the so-called friendship between Putin and Trump was a sour relationship that was deeply damaging to our country and to the international order."The majority leader praised the success of Ukrainian fighters in forcing Russia's retreat from key cities and said it shows "American support is working.""To date, our funding has put more weapons in Ukrainian hands and more victories under their belt," Schumer said. 9:41 AM Harris to join Biden for meeting with Zelenskyy Vice President Kamala Harris will join Mr. Biden for the bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at the White House, her office said. 9:26 AM What Zelenskyy hopes to accomplish in Washington Mr. Biden formally extended an invitation to Zelenskyy last Wednesday, and he accepted last Friday. Pelosi's office was informed of the visit over the weekend, setting in motion elaborate plans for Wednesday's big events. CBS News senior White House and political correspondent Ed O'Keefe reports: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set to visit White House, address Congress 02:30 9:20 AM Biden "thrilled" to have Zelenskyy in U.S. Mr. Biden responded to the Ukrainian president's tweet, saying he is "thrilled to have you here": I hope you’re having a good flight, Volodymyr. I’m thrilled to have you here. Much to discuss. https://t.co/SsRdsAnSDb— President Biden (@POTUS) December 21, 2022 | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Thanks to Vladimir Putin's recent implicit threat to employ nuclear weapons if the U.S. and its NATO allies continue to arm Ukraine — "This is not a bluff," he insisted on Sept. 21 — the perils in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict once again hit the headlines. And it's entirely possible, as ever more powerful U.S. weapons pour into Ukraine and Russian forces suffer yet more defeats, that the Russian president might indeed believe that the season for threats is ending and only the detonation of a nuclear weapon will convince the Western powers to back off. If so, the war in Ukraine could prove historic in the worst sense imaginable — the first conflict since World War II to lead to nuclear devastation.
But hold on! As it happens, Ukraine isn't the only place on the planet where a nuclear conflagration could erupt in the near future. Sad to say, around the island of Taiwan — where U.S. and Chinese forces are engaging in ever more provocative military maneuvers — there is also an increasing risk that such moves by both sides could lead to nuclear escalation. While neither American nor Chinese officials have explicitly threatened to use such weaponry, both sides have highlighted possible extreme outcomes there. When Joe Biden last spoke with Xi Jinping by telephone on July 29, the Chinese president warned him against allowing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit the island (which she nonetheless did, four days later) or offering any further encouragement to "Taiwan independence forces" there. "Those who play with fire will perish by it," he assured the American president, an ambiguous warning to be sure, but one that nevertheless left open the possible use of nuclear weapons.
As if to underscore that point, on Sept. 4, the day after Pelosi met with senior Taiwanese officials in Taipei, China fired 11 Dongfeng-15 (DF-15) ballistic missiles into the waters around that island. Many Western observers believe that the barrage was meant as a demonstration of Beijing's ability to attack any U.S. naval vessels that might come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese blockade or invasion of the island. And the DF-15, with a range of 600 miles, is believed capable of delivering not only a conventional payload, but also a nuclear one.
In the days that followed, China also sent nuclear-capable H-6 heavy bombers across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, a previously respected informal boundary between China and that island. Worse yet, state-owned media displayed images of Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) hypersonic ballistic missiles, also believed capable of carrying nuclear weapons, being moved into positions off Taiwan.
One day after Nancy Pelosi met with senior officials in Taipei, China fired 11 Dongfeng-15 (DF-15) ballistic missiles — all capable of carrying a nuclear payload — into Taiwanese waters.
Washington has not overtly deployed nuclear-capable weaponry in such a brazen fashion near Chinese territory, but it certainly has sent aircraft carriers and guided-missile warships into the area, signaling its ability to launch attacks on the mainland should a war break out. While Pelosi was in Taiwan, for example, the Navy deployed the carrier USS Ronald Reagan with its flotilla of escort vessels in nearby waters. Military officials in both countries are all too aware that should such ships ever attack Chinese territory, those DF-15s and DF-17s would be let loose against them — and, if armed with nuclear warheads, would likely provoke a U.S. nuclear response.
The implicit message on both sides: A nuclear war might be possible. And although — unlike with Putin's comments — the American media hasn't highlighted the way Taiwan might trigger such a conflagration, the potential is all too ominously there.
"One China" and "strategic ambiguity"
In reality, there's nothing new about the risk of nuclear war over Taiwan. In both the Taiwan Strait crises of 1954-1955 and 1958, the United States threatened to attack a then-non-nuclear China with such weaponry if it didn't stop shelling the Taiwanese-controlled islands of Kinmen (Quemoy) and Mazu (Matsu), located off that country's coast. At the time, Washington had no formal relations with the communist regime on the mainland and recognized the Republic of China (ROC) — as Taiwan calls itself — as the government of all China. In the end, however, U.S. leaders found it advantageous to recognize the People's Republic of China (PRC) in place of the ROC and the risk of a nuclear conflict declined precipitously — until recently.
Credit the new, increasingly perilous situation to Washington's changing views of Taiwan's strategic value to America's dominant position in the Pacific as it faces the challenge of China's emergence as a great power. When the U.S. officially recognized the PRC in 1978, it severed its formal diplomatic and military relationship with the ROC, while "acknowledg[ing] the Chinese position that there is but one China and [that] Taiwan is part of China." That stance — what came to be known as the "One China" policy — has, in fact, underwritten peaceful relations between the two countries (and Taiwan's autonomy) ever since, by allowing Chinese leaders to believe that the island would, in time, join the mainland. Want a daily wrap-up of all the news and commentary Salon has to offer? Subscribe to our morning newsletter, Crash Course. Taiwan's safety and autonomy has also been preserved over the years by another key feature of U.S. policy, known as "strategic ambiguity." It originated with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, a measure passed in the wake of the U.S. decision to recognize the PRC as the legal government of all China. Under the act, still in effect, the U.S. is empowered to supply Taiwan with "defensive" arms, while maintaining only semi-official ties with its leadership. It also says that Washington would view any Chinese attempt to alter Taiwan's status through violent means as a matter "of grave concern," but without explicitly stating that the U.S. will come to Taiwan's aid if that were to occur. Such official ambiguity helped keep the peace, in part by offering Taiwan's leadership no guarantee that Washington would back them if they declared independence and China invaded, while giving the leaders of the People's Republic no assurance that Washington would remain on the sidelines if they did.
Since 1980, both Democratic and Republican administrations have relied on such strategic ambiguity and the One China policy to guide their peaceful relations with the PRC. Over the years, there have been periods of spiking tensions between Washington and Beijing, with Taiwan's status a persistent irritant, but never a fundamental breach in relations. And that — consider the irony, if you will — has allowed Taiwan to develop into a modern, prosperous quasi-state, while escaping involvement in a major-power confrontation (in part because it just didn't figure prominently enough in U.S. strategic thinking).
From 1980 to 2001, America's top foreign-policy officials were largely focused on defeating the Soviet Union, dealing with the end of the Cold War, and expanding global trade opportunities. Then, from Sept. 11, 2001, to 2018, their attention was diverted to the Global War on Terror. In the early years of the Trump administration, however, senior military officials began switching their focus from the War on Terror to what they termed "great-power competition," arguing that facing off against "near-peer" adversaries, namely China and Russia, should be the dominant theme in military planning. And only then did Taiwan acquire a different significance.
The Pentagon's new strategic outlook was first spelled out in the National Defense Strategy of February 2018 in this way: "The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition" with China and Russia. (And yes, the emphasis was in the original.) China, in particular, was identified as a vital threat to Washington's continued global dominance. "As China continues its economic and military ascendance," the document asserted, "it will continue to pursue a military modernization program that seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the United States to achieve global preeminence in the future."
An ominous "new Cold War" era had begun.
Taiwan's strategic significance rises
To prevent China from achieving that most feared of all results, "Indo-Pacific regional hegemony," Pentagon leaders devised a multi-pronged strategy, combining an enhanced U.S. military presence in the region with beefed-up, ever more militarized ties with America's allies there. As that 2018 National Defense Strategy put it, "We will strengthen our alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to a networked security architecture capable of deterring aggression, maintaining stability, and ensuring free access to common domains." Initially, that "networked security architecture" was only to involve long-term allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. Soon enough, however, Taiwan came to be viewed as a crucial part of such an architecture.
To grasp what this meant, imagine a map of the Western Pacific. In seeking to "contain" China, Washington was relying on a chain of island and peninsular allies stretching from South Korea and Japan to the Philippines and Australia. Japan's southernmost islands, including Okinawa — the site of major American military bases (and a vigorous local anti-base movement) — do reach all the way into the Philippine Sea. Still, there remains a wide gap between them and Luzon, the northernmost Philippine island. Smack in the middle of that gap lies… yep, you guessed it, Taiwan.
In seeking to "contain" China, Washington relies on a chain of island and peninsular allies stretching from South Korea and Japan to the Philippines and Australia. Smack in the middle of that chain lies Taiwan.
In the view of the top American military and foreign policy officials, for the U.S. to successfully prevent China from becoming a major regional power, it would have to bottle up that country's naval forces within what they began calling "the first island chain" — the string of nations stretching from Japan to the Philippines and Indonesia. For China to thrive, as they saw it, that nation's navy would have to be able to send its ships past that line of islands and reach deep into the Pacific. You won't be surprised to learn, then, that solidifying U.S. defenses along that very chain became a top Pentagon priority — and, in that context, Taiwan has, ominously enough, come to be viewed as a crucial piece in the strategic puzzle.
Last December, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner summed up the Pentagon's new way of thinking about the island's geopolitical role when he appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Taiwan," he said, "is located at a critical node within the first island chain, anchoring a network of U.S. allies and partners that is critical to the region's security and critical to the defense of vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific."
This new perception of Taiwan's "critical" significance has led senior policymakers in Washington to reconsider the basics, including their commitment to a One China policy and to strategic ambiguity. While still claiming that One China remains White House policy, President Biden has repeatedly insisted all too unambiguously that the U.S. has an obligation to defend Taiwan if attacked. When asked recently on "60 Minutes" whether "U.S. forces…would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion," Biden said, without hesitation, "Yes." The administration has also upgraded its diplomatic ties with the island and promised it billions of dollars' worth of arms transfers and other forms of military assistance. In essence, such moves constitute a de facto abandonment of "One China" and its replacement with a "one China, one Taiwan" policy.
Not surprisingly, the Chinese authorities have reacted to such comments and the moves accompanying them with increasing apprehension and anger. As seen from Beijing, they represent the full-scale repudiation of multiple statements acknowledging Taiwan's indivisible ties to the mainland, as well as a potential military threat of the first order should that island become a formal U.S. ally. For President Xi and his associates, this is simply intolerable.
"The repeated attempts by the Taiwan authorities to look for U.S. support for their independence agenda as well as the intention of some Americans to use Taiwan to contain China" are deeply troubling, Xi told Biden during their telephone call in November 2021. "Such moves are extremely dangerous, just like playing with fire. Whoever plays with fire will get burned."
Since then, Chinese officials have steadily escalated their rhetoric, threatening war in ever more explicit terms. "If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence," Qin Gang, China's ambassador to the U.S., typically told NPR in January 2022, "it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in military conflict."
To demonstrate its seriousness, China has begun conducting regular air and naval exercises in the air- and sea-space surrounding Taiwan. Such maneuvers usually involve the deployment of five or six warships and a dozen or more warplanes, as well as ever greater displays of firepower, clearly with the intention of intimidating the Taiwanese leadership. On Aug. 5, for example, the Chinese deployed 13 warships and 68 warplanes in areas around Taiwan and, two days later, 14 ships and 66 planes.
Each time, the Taiwanese scramble their own aircraft and deploy coastal defense vessels in response. Accordingly, as China's maneuvers grow in size and frequency, the risk of an accidental or unintended clash becomes ever more likely. The increasingly frequent deployment of U.S. warships to nearby waters only adds to this explosive mix. Every time an American naval vessel is sent through the Taiwan Strait — something that occurs almost once a month now — China scrambles its own air and sea defenses, producing a comparable risk of unintended violence.
This was true, for example, when the guided-missile cruisers USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville sailed through that strait on Aug. 28. According to Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, China's military "conducted security tracking and monitoring of the U.S. warships' passage during their whole course and had all movements of the U.S. warships under control."
No barriers to escalation?
If it weren't for the seemingly never-ending war in Ukraine, the dangers of all of this might be far more apparent and deemed far more newsworthy. Unfortunately, at this point, there are no indications that either Beijing or Washington is prepared to scale back its provocative military maneuvers around Taiwan. That means an accidental or unintended clash could occur at any time, possibly triggering a full-scale conflict.
Imagine, then, what a decision by Taiwan to declare full independence or by the Biden administration to abandon the One China policy could mean. China would undoubtedly respond aggressively, perhaps with a naval blockade of the island or even a full-scale invasion. Given the increasingly evident lack of interest among the key parties in compromise, a violent outcome appears ever more likely.
If a U.S.-China conflict erupts, it may be difficult to contain the fighting to a "conventional" level. Both sides have shaped their military forces for rapid, intensive combat and decisive victory.
However such a conflict erupts, it may prove difficult to contain the fighting at a "conventional" level. After all, both sides are wary of another war of attrition like the one unfolding in Ukraine and have instead shaped their military forces for rapid, firepower-intensive combat aimed at securing a decisive victory quickly. For Beijing, this could mean firing hundreds of ballistic missiles at U.S. ships and air bases in the region with the aim of eliminating any American capacity to attack its territory. For Washington, it might mean launching missiles at China's key ports, air bases, radar stations, and command centers. In either case, the results could prove catastrophic. For the U.S., the loss of its carriers and other warships; for China, the loss of its very capacity to make war. Would leaders of the losing side accept such a situation without resorting to nuclear weapons? No one can say for sure, but the temptation to escalate would undoubtedly be great.
Unfortunately, at the moment, there are no U.S.-China negotiations under way to resolve the Taiwan question, to prevent unintended clashes in the Taiwan Strait or to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. In fact, China quite publicly cut off all discussion of bilateral issues, ranging from military affairs to climate change, in the wake of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. So it's essential, despite the present focus on escalation risks in Ukraine, to recognize that avoiding a war over Taiwan is no less important — especially given the danger that such a conflict could prove of even greater destructiveness. That's why it's so critical that Washington and Beijing put aside their differences long enough to initiate talks focused on preventing such a catastrophe. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Ukrainian artillery troops firing near KhersonUS National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has confirmed communication channels between Washington and Moscow remain open.It comes as the White House refuses to deny reports that Mr Sullivan has been leading talks with Russia to prevent a nuclear escalation in Ukraine.Speaking in New York, Mr Sullivan said it was "in the interests" of the US to maintain contact with the Kremlin. But he insisted officials were "clear-eyed about who we are dealing with".The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr Sullivan has held confidential discussions with his Russian counterpart, Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and senior Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, over the past several months. Senior officials told the paper the men had discussed ways to guard against the risk of nuclear escalation in the war in Ukraine, but had not engaged in any negotiations around ways to end the conflict. Last month, Mr Sullivan said any use of nuclear weapons would have "catastrophic consequences for Russia". He told the US broadcaster NBC that senior officials had "spelled out" the scope of the potential US response in private discussions with Russian officials. US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson refused to confirm the story, telling the paper that "people claim a lot of things", while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Western newspapers of "publishing numerous hoaxes". But White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said on Monday that the United States reserved the right to hold talks with Russia.And Mr Sullivan - who is said to be one of the most senior advisers to US President Joe Biden still pushing for discussions with Russia - said maintaining contact with Moscow was in the "interests of every country who is affected by this conflict". Last week, the Washington Post reported that senior US officials were urging Kyiv to signal an openness to hold negotiations with Russia and drop their public refusal to discuss an end to the war while President Vladimir Putin remained in power. But Mr Sullivan told a public event in New York that the Biden administration had "an obligation to pursue accountability" and pledged to work with international partners to "hold the perpetrators of grave and grotesque war crimes in Ukraine responsible for what they have done". "I was just in Kyiv on Friday. and I had the opportunity to meet with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky and my counterpart Andriy Yermak, with the military leadership and also to get a briefing on just what level of death and devastation has been erupted by Putin's war on that country," Mr Sullivan said. Concerns have been heightened in recent months that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons in a desperate attempt to defend four regions of eastern and southern Ukraine that it illegally annexed. Meanwhile, Ukraine has invoked its war-time martial laws to take control of the assets of five strategically important companies. Some of the companies - which include two energy companies and firms that make engines, vehicles and transformers - are linked to oligarch Vyacheslav Bohuslayev, who was arrested on suspicion of collaborating with Russia. President Zelensky said the move would help Ukraine's defence sector meet the needs of the military, which is currently engaged in counteroffensives in southern and eastern Ukraine. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Channeling the imperialist rhetoric of his security chief, Nikolai Patrushev, Russian President Vladimir Putin railed against the West on Friday. He did so while formalizing the annexation of four more Ukrainian territories at a Kremlin ceremony. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered his own escalation, announcing he would attempt to fast-track Ukraine's membership in NATO. Zelensky added that he would no longer consider negotiating with Russia as long as Putin remains president. This hardening of positions means that the war in Ukraine will almost certainly escalate before any durable peace is possible. WHO BLEW UP THE NORD STREAM PIPELINES, AND HOW WILL WE FIND OUT Putin and Zelensky have separate reasons for their increasingly hawkish stances. Zelensky is understandably infuriated by Russia's brazen theft of Ukrainian territory. But he also sees the battlefield situation evolving in his favor. Legions of new draftees won't much matter — Russia will soon lack the ability to conduct major offensives. Zelensky wants to bring Russia to its knees in Ukraine before he offers any concessions of his own. To be sure, Zelensky exaggerates the strength of his position. Ukraine is not joining NATO anytime soon because current NATO members are unwilling to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. That may change if Putin starts nuking Ukraine, but it may not. Regardless, Zelensky's refusal of talks while Putin remains in power is an error of judgment. Putin won't live forever, but his position is stable, at least for the moment. As Russia continues to lose in Ukraine, Putin will have increased incentive to engage in negotiations favorable to Kyiv. By closing that door, Zelensky makes Putin's nuclear escalation more likely. The explosions targeting the Nord Stream I and II pipelines this week are likely indications of Putin's new openness to roll the metaphorical dice. Still, in stark contrast with the opulent setting and hyperbolic confidence he presented on Friday, Putin is under unprecedented pressure. He has utterly botched what was supposed to be a short, sharp, and successful February invasion of Ukraine and ensuing abortion of Ukraine's sovereignty. Today, Putin's demoralized and badly equipped conventional forces are in fragile holding positions or outright retreat. Much like Hitler during the Second World War, Putin appears unwilling to allow sensible retreats. Making matters worse, the Russians don't want to be the ones to replace those who have died on the front lines. At least since 1917, Russians have rarely been kind to leaders who match failing wars abroad to declining stability at home. Putin has no easy way out, barring a dramatic retreat or an extreme escalation. Putin's annexation announcement is thus designed to deter Ukraine and its Western supporters from operations to recover those territories. Putin suggests that if Russian units are forced to retreat from these areas, he will even use nuclear weapons to defend them. Hence the former KGB officer's warning on Friday that "the United States is the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons, twice, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By the way, they set a precedent ... We will protect our land with all the forces and means at our disposal." Advancing from a hostile narrative in his other recent speeches, there was an unusually bitter tone to Putin's words. The American alliance, he said, "do not wish us freedom, but they want to see us as a colony. They do not want equal cooperation, but robbery. They want to see us not as a free society, but as a crowd of soulless slaves." With not terribly subtle innuendo, Putin decried American allies who support its foreign policy objectives. "Like a slave," he said, they "silently and meekly swallow this rudeness." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER This may be a significant moment in Russia's strategy toward the U.S. and the West more broadly. Putin appears to have decided that he has no other option but to escalate. Considering Zelensky senses his own victory, the next few weeks could be very interesting. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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BUDAPEST — Viktor Orbán wants Ukraine to give up.
As Ukrainian flags fly across European capitals and Western tanks come to Ukraine’s rescue, Hungary’s prime minister is openly questioning Ukraine’s viability as a sovereign state. In Budapest, his government has lined the streets with anti-sanctions billboards. The Hungarian State Opera is staging a production of Sergei Prokofiev’s “War and Peace.”
Russia, Orbán recently told an eclectic group of foreign conservative figures, has already succeeded in making Ukraine an ungovernable wreck.
“It’s Afghanistan now,” Orbán said during a roundtable discussion described in The American Conservative. Vladimir Putin will not lose and time is on Russia’s side, he argued, calling Ukraine “the land of nobody.”
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It’s a message almost diametrically opposed to the rhetoric flying around the rest of the Western alliance, which just last week pierced yet another red line when it pledged to give Ukraine dozens of modern tanks. And it’s heightening tensions between Hungary and neighboring Ukraine. Orbán’s remarks sparked outrage among Ukrainian officials, who said they would summon Hungary’s ambassador.
Back in Budapest, Orbán’s approach is seen as partly a domestic political ploy to distract from Hungary’s economic woes, as well as a nod to nationalist voters. But there is also a sense among experts that Orbán’s rhetoric is about more than just short-term politicking — the Hungarian leader, they say, wants to preserve his long-standing relationship with the Kremlin.
Either way, the fallout illustrates the growing gulf between Orbán and the rest of his EU and NATO allies.
“Political leaders in the government of Hungary often speak of promoting peace, but — from condemning sanctions to embracing Russian ‘cease-fire’ proposals — they continue to push policies endorsed by Putin,” said David Pressman, the U.S. ambassador in Budapest.
“We join the Hungarian government’s call for peace, but those calls should be directed to Vladimir Putin,” he said in an emailed statement, adding that Washington “will continue to advocate for an end to this war by standing resolutely with the victims of it.”
But while the majority of Western allies moved to provide taboo-breaking support for Ukraine, Hungary is doubling down on its stance that Kyiv should simply stop fighting.
“Our elementary humanity and sense of morality,” Orbán told state radio on Friday, “demands that we do everything we can to freeze the front line, for there to be a cease-fire and for negotiations to start.”
Orbán’s goals
Experts say Orbán is not anti-Ukrainian — his rhetoric is simply an effort to play both sides and win political points at home.
The prime minister has spent years implementing a dual foreign policy: enjoying the benefits of EU and NATO membership while developing lucrative relationships with Moscow, Beijing and other authoritarian capitals.
And when the same Russian government he courted invaded Hungary’s neighbor, Orbán condemned the invasion — but didn’t fully drop his Russia-friendly stance.
Hungary is still going ahead with a nuclear power plant expansion project together with Russia’s Rosatom. And Hungarian officials keep traveling to Russia to discuss energy deals. The country, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas, signed a deal for even more supplies last summer — just as others were seeking to reduce their imports.
And while Budapest approved the EU’s sanctions packages, Orbán has sought to water down some provisions. Meanwhile, back home, he has been running a vast anti-sanctions campaign blaming Brussels for Hungary’s economic woes.
“Orbán invested a lot” in his Russia-friendly policies, said Péter Krekó, director of the Political Capital Institute, a research body that specializes in Hungarian foreign policy.
“There is an inertia that brings him to that direction,” he said. “It seems that [the] government is not really able to correct these mistakes.”
There’s a history there, too
Hungary and Ukraine also have a long, troubled relationship due to a dispute over the language rights of Hungarian speakers living in western Ukraine. Predictably, Orbán’s stance since the invasion began — not to mention his latest comments — has only deepened those tensions.
“This unfortunately is clearly Russian rhetoric,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s committee on EU integration, when asked about Orbán’s latest comments.
“Hungary has long been an enemy of freedom,” she said in a text message. “We are surprised,” she added, that Hungarian statements and activities “have not yet received a proper response from within [the] EU and NATO.”
The prime minister’s critics were quick to distance themselves from the government’s approach to Ukraine, arguing Orbán does not represent all Hungarians.
“Orbán’s comment is beyond shameful,” said Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh, who recently returned from a trip to Kyiv together with other members of the opposition Momentum party.
Ukraine, she said, is “a land of brave freedom fighters and fellow Europeans, who deserve our utmost respect.”
The Hungarian government did not respond to requests for comment. Hungary’s foreign ministry, however, insisted that the government is well-intentioned.
Responding to Kyiv’s decision to summon its ambassador, the ministry told a pro-government outlet that the war is leading to deaths and turning parts of Ukraine “into a wasteland.”
“This is why,” the ministry said, “Hungary wants peace and an immediate cease-fire instead of arms deliveries.”
Saying what he thinks others won’t
The prime minister’s rhetoric on Ukraine is partly due to an early miscalculation about the trajectory of the conflict, experts say.
“The government was betting on a quick resolution to the conflict and hoped that Hungary would benefit from maintaining its relationship with Russia,” said Zselyke Csaky, a fellow at the European University Institute.
“Some obviously thought that Hungary could become a sort of ‘bridge’ between Russia and the rest of Europe and reap the trade and other benefits in the meantime,” she said, adding that now “it’s clear that this won’t happen.”
Hungarians who know the prime minister well personally say part of the explanation for Orbán’s controversial comments is that the longtime politician likes to be outspoken on issues he believes other leaders are too timid to address.
“I think he’s doing this because he believes that this is what actually many Europeans think — and he expects that Europe eventually will not stand by Ukraine,” said Zsuzsanna Szelényi, who was a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party in the early 1990s and is now a critic of the government.
In his discussion with foreign conservatives, Orbán alluded to his belief that some politicians may secretly agree with him.
“The Germans are suffering because they know what’s in their national interest, but they’re not able to say it,” he argued.
But there is also a sense in Budapest that Orbán is often criticizing the West’s response to the war because business circles close to the ruling party still benefit from economic links to Moscow — and because he wants to strengthen his case for opposing sanctions.
The prime minister “essentially seeks to create a justification to oppose any further sanctions that may indeed start to hurt its own relations with Moscow,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Orbán’s rhetoric also plays well with a segment of his electorate.
In Hungary’s nationalist history “you have the tradition of the anti-Westernism, and you have the tradition of anti-Russian sentiments as well,” said Political Capital’s Krekó.
Now, he added, the anti-Western approach “trumps” the anti-Russian sentiment.
But always a pragmatist, Orbán is visibly trying to keep his options open.
Szelényi, who recently wrote a book on Orbán’s “tainted” democracy, pointed out that the prime minister has also made unfavorable comments about Russia.
Orbán, she said, is “basically creating a room for maneuvering for himself in this crisis.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.“The government took the decision to organise assistance for the departure of residents of the [Kherson] region to other regions of the country,” Khusnullin said.The development followed a public request on the social media platform Telegram by Vladimir Saldo, a former mayor of the port city, who was installed in April by the Russian forces as head of the wider Kherson region.Saldo, who Ukrainian prosecutors have charged with treason, had specifically called on Vladimir Putin to help those who wished to flee the fighting, claiming it was Ukrainian attacks imperilling the lives of locals.Saldo, who was mayor of Kherson city between 2002 and 2012, said: “I want to ask you [the Russian leadership] for help in organising such work. We, residents of the Kherson region, certainly know that Russia does not abandon its own, and Russia always lends a shoulder where it is difficult.”MapOfficials in Kyiv have spoken of their hopes of reaching the regional capital of Kherson by Christmas despite Putin’s recent announcement that the oblast had been “annexed” into Russia alongside Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk, a move condemned around the world as illegal.In New York, three-quarters of the 193-member UN general assembly – 143 countries – voted on Wednesday in favour of a resolution condemning Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of the four partially occupied regions.Only four countries joined Russia in voting against the resolution: Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus. Thirty-five countries abstained from the vote, including Russia’s strategic partner China, while the rest did not vote.The city of Kherson was one of the first to fall to Russia after the invasion on 24 February and it is a crucial strategic and symbolic target for Ukraine’s government. Ukrainian forces said on Wednesday that they had successfully retaken five settlements in the north-east of the Kherson region as part of the counterattack launched in August. The fighting remains hard, however.British intelligence said that after retreating about 12 miles in the north of Kherson in early October, Russian forces were probably attempting to consolidate a new frontline west of the village of Mylove which lies further north-east up the Dnieper river from Kherson city.Overnight, the city of Mykolaiv, 60 miles north-west of Kherson city, was once again pummelled by Russian missiles, with one strike on a five-storey apartment block killing a 31-year-old man and an 80-year-old woman. Five further people were said to still be under rubble.The Mykolaiv regional governor, Vitaliy Kim, said an 11-year-old boy was pulled from the rubble after six hours and rescue teams were searching for seven more people.Ukrainian officials said on Thursday that Iranians in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine were training Russians in how to use the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone, which can conduct air-to-surface attacks, electronic warfare and targeting. Their deployment may indicate the Russian military is running out of its own drones.Ukraine’s air force command said air defence shot down six Iranian drones from over the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions during the night.Meanwhile, claims from Moscow that Ukraine had hit a residential building in the southern Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border were denied in Kyiv.Mykhaylo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser, claimed Russian forces had tried to shell Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, on the border “but something went wrong”.With Russia struggling to relaunch its war effort, the issue of whether the Kremlin could react by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine brought a strong response in Brussels.At the opening of a diplomacy academy in Brussels, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, warned Putin of his army’s “annihilation”, despite the French president, Emmanuel Macron, saying on Wednesday that his country would not use its nuclear arsenal in such circumstances.Borrell, a former Spanish foreign minister, said: “Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the member states, and the United States and Nato are not bluffing either. Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian army will be annihilated.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Putin unveils new 'Russian World' foreign policy - a notion used to justify foreign intervention such as Ukraine invasion to 'support Russian-speakers'The 'humanitarian policy' says Russia should 'protect' the ideals of Russian worldIt enshrines official policy ideas around Russian politics that has been used to justify foreign intervention - such as Moscow's invasion of UkraineIdeals of the 'Russian world' was used to justify war in Ukraine as Putin falsely claimed Kyiv had been carrying out a 'genocide' against Russian speakers Published: 04:40 EDT, 6 September 2022 | Updated: 04:46 EDT, 6 September 2022 President Vladimir Putin has approved a new foreign policy doctrine based around the concept of a 'Russian World', a notion that conservative ideologues have used to justify intervention abroad in support of Russian-speakers.The 31-page 'humanitarian policy', published more than six months into the war in Ukraine, says Russia should 'protect, safeguard and advance the traditions and ideals of the Russian World'.While presented as a kind of soft power strategy, it enshrines in official policy ideas around Russian politics and religion that some hardliners have used to justify foreign intervention - such as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.'The Russian Federation provides support to its compatriots living abroad in the fulfilment of their rights, to ensure the protection of their interests and the preservation of their Russian cultural identity,' the policy said. President Vladimir Putin on Monday approved a new foreign policy doctrine based around the concept of a 'Russian World', a notion that conservative ideologues have used to justify intervention abroad in support of Russian-speakersIt said that Russia's ties with its compatriots abroad allowed it to 'strengthen on the international stage its image as a democratic country striving for the creating of a multi-polar world.'Putin has for years been highlighting what he sees as the tragic fate of some 25 million ethnic Russians who found themselves living outside Russia in newly independent states when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an event he has called a 'geopolitical catastrophe'.Russia has continued to regard the former Soviet space, from the Baltics to Central Asia, as its legitimate sphere of influence - a notion fiercely resisted by many of those countries as well as by the West.The ideals of the Russian World was used to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before invading, Putin falsely claimed Kyiv had been carrying out a 'genocide' against the Russian-speaking of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. While presented as a kind of soft power strategy, it enshrines in official policy ideas around Russian politics and religion that some hardliners have used to justify foreign intervention - such as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Pictured: Firefighters work at a building destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Kharkiv on Tuesday The ideals of the Russian World was used to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before invading, Putin falsely claimed Kyiv had been carrying out a 'genocide' against the Russian-speaking of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. Pictured: A Ukrainian soldier walks through a destroyed building near Kharkiv, Ukraine on September 3Putin also justified the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by invoking the concept of a 'Russian World' and he said Russians residing there were living in a 'divided nation'.The same language has been used in recent months by Russian officials when discussing the region of Transnistria, an unrecognised Moscow-backed sliver of land bordering southwestern Ukraine. Kremlin chief Rustam Minnekayev said in April that Russia sought control of southern Ukraine, which could provide access to Transnistria, 'where there have been cases of oppression of the Russian-speaking population'.Moldovans and Ukrainians fear Russian forces will launch 'false flag' attacks to help provide a pretext for invading Transnistria.Putin's new foreign policy also says Russia should increase cooperation with Slavic nations, China, and India, and further strengthen its ties to the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.It said Moscow should further deepen its ties with Abkhazia and Ossetia, two Georgian regions recognised as independent by Moscow after its war against Georgia in 2008, as well as the two breakaway entities in eastern Ukraine, the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. Advertisement | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Column: Ukraine’s fight benefits U.S. national security. The House GOP is on the wrong side
We are entering the 12th month of a “special military operation” that was supposed to be over in well under 12 days. The Kremlin even told Russian officers to pack dress uniforms and medals for the intended military parades in Kyiv a few days after the shooting started.
Things turned out differently. By launching the first land war in Europe since 1945 with the expressed intent to stop both the expansion of NATO eastward and the political and economic migration of Ukraine westward, Putin’s adventure is already well on its way to being remembered as one of the great strategic blunders in living memory.
Sweden and Finland — which shares more than 800 miles of border with Russia — are applying to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The process to admit Ukraine to the European Union is underway, and Ukraine’s military is rapidly switching to newer, better and NATOcompatible weapons. Germany, which recently agreed to ship tanks to Ukraine, has jettisoned much of its non-interventionist foreign policy and committed to much more robust defense spending. Putin’s long-standing strategy of using energy to hold Western Europe hostage has largely backfired.
China, which made a big show of its “no limits” partnership with its neighbor, has so far only offered extremely limited support for Russia. It’s almost as if the Beijing government is embarrassed by its ally’s pathetic showing — which appears to have taken the Chinese leaders by surprise.
In short, these are wildly momentous events, which mostly redound to the benefit of American national security. But you wouldn’t necessarily know that from political debates about Ukraine. Indeed, there’s an otherworldly aspect to the whole conversation.
For instance, going into the midterms, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield),
now the House speaker, settled on the talking point that Republicans wouldn’t give Ukraine a “blank check” the way Democrats had. But that wasn’t happening.
As the Hudson Institute’s Luke Coffey noted at the time, most of the dollars “allocated for military assistance to Ukraine never leave the United States,” he wrote. “Funds for military support are not wired to Ukrainian government bank accounts.” We send Ukraine weapons — including, eventually, Abrams tanks — and other equipment and that money goes toward replenishing our stockpiles.
President Biden has handled things fairly well behind the scenes, but his public statements tend to be weighed down by things he won’t do — like send tanks and other weapons systems — which he inevitably ends up doing. He’s also very fond of insisting — for more understandable reasons — that we will not be sending American troops to fight in Ukraine. Indeed, the only thing that garners bipartisan support regarding Ukraine is that we shouldn’t get into a direct war with Russia and therefore NATO shouldn’t do anything that “provokes” Putin.
Provoke him to do what, exactly? Invade Ukraine and target civilians by the millions? He’s doing that already. Not supplying these weapons in a more timely manner was what was actually provocative. The dithering encouraged Putin to wage a missile and artillery war on Ukrainian population centers in the hope that he could beat Ukraine into submission before the West realized it needed to send the weapons Ukraine needed.
No one wants a nuclear war, of course. Which is why Russia keeps threatening one. If the policy is going to be, Russia can do whatever it wants because it has nuclear weapons, then make that argument.
But if the strategic goal is for Ukraine to win back its own territory using its own troops, then the tactical imperative is to give Ukraine what it needs to win. Normally, when America sends troops to fight, the refrain from critics is to let the Iraqis or Afghans or whomever fight for their own freedom. That’s what Ukraine is doing.
Mitt Romney was right — and Barack Obama was wrong — in 2012 when he described Russia as our “geopolitical foe.” Enabling Ukrainians to degrade Russia is in our national interest. And, if the new “nationalist” Republicans were serious about the sanctity of national borders, they’d recognize that Ukraine is literally the front line of that fight.
Some seem to think it’s provocative to let Russia believe NATO is using Ukraine as a proxy for its interests. But that horse left the barn long ago. That’s the official Russian view, blared out constantly on Russia state media. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev recently declared, “The events in Ukraine are not a clash between Moscow and Kyiv — this is a military confrontation between Russia and NATO.” Moscow is “not dealing with Ukraine — we’re past that,” prime-time Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov announced last October. “We’re dealing with the entire NATO bloc, with the might of its military industrial complex.”
If only that were true.
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Just when we were done fighting a global pandemic, we were greeted with a destructive war that can result in economic turmoil. If it wasn’t enough to see our loved ones die in our arms from a deadly virus, our bloodthirsty world leaders needed a new way to entertain themselves.So they engaged in a bloody war where innocent lives will be lost while some individuals and corporations will pile up on money from the military-industrial complex. While the poor and developing countries will starve due to a disruption in the global supply chain, the superpowers will engage in a scuffle to maintain hegemony.The Cold War That Never EndedIt took a war between Russia and Ukraine for the world to realize the cold war actually never ended. Over the years, the power struggle between the west and other world power became more visible, and the rising tensions in 2023 will serve as a stark reminder.2023 will be an important year for Asia, where many countries will try to define & shape democracy. The notion of democracy that was interpreted by the west is slowly altering. It is becoming a thing of the past, a facade of freedom where people are given the privilege to elect their government.The idea of democracy was modern and so well accepted, it spread like wildfire. By the early 2000s, democracy had spread from 44 to 140 nations worldwide in just 15 years. Despite the optimism in the early 1990s that the world was bending towards Western concepts of an open, rules-based society, many feared democracy would devour itself and will not last.While most countries are hanging on to the essence of democracy, some have deemed the western conception of democracy to be “outdated.” The foundation of democracy is eroding further and further.The coming year will see a global reset. An iteration of a power struggle between liberalism and autocracy. Some countries are already romanticising an electoral autocracy in the shroud of democracy.So how will the struggle between liberalism and autocracy play out in the coming days? And are we heading towards a paradigm shift in global politics?Since the beginning of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24, it is becoming painfully obvious that most countries are now split between backing the west or supporting the new alliance that is emerging with other key world powers.We will talk about the emerging world powers and the momentous shift of western hegemony in detail. But first, let’s talk about Asia and the geopolitics around it.The Power Play In AsiaThe tussle between China and the US is nothing new. For years during the cold war era, the US and the soviet union fought proxy battles all across the world. Fortunately, the battle with China is not happening on a war front, at least for now. It’s more of an economic and strategic battle with China. Although both of these superpowers have allies in Asia who are in a decade-long standoff.So what is China’s strategy towards Asia? Especially with the southeast and Taiwan. It’s all about influence, dominance and trade. Till the last decade, the US had a stronghold in Asia. It all started by the end of world war 2 when America decisively crushed Japan and went on to emerge as an Asian powerhouse. The US started to build military outposts in the region and Japan became an important ally in the Indo-pacific.US imperialism in Asia was undermining China’s dominance till now. But things have started to shift in the opposite direction. The US will have a hard time maintaining its hegemony in this part of the world. Today, the novelty is that a second superpower, communist China, is striving for supremacy in Asia. And they are persistent!With China’s Xi Jinping consolidating power, he has echoed the changing reality: the Asia-Pacific is no one’s backyard. This sends a clear message to the US. China won’t like a military power play in their hood.But losing Taiwan would be a huge blow to the US and its status quo.For China, Taiwan is a piece of its unfinished puzzle. An undivided land of the great Chinese empire, Taiwan was always considered a breakaway province by China. China even has plans to unite the island with the mainland by 2049, but many political analysts suggest that it is going to happen sooner than expected. And this will have global ramifications and could break out into an all-out war with the US.China’s successful annexation of Taiwan would send a strong message to the rest of the world. Not only it will reinforce its dominance in Asia it will also put a huge question mark on American hegemony.Losing The Status QuoThe US is already playing a losing hand in Asia. Remember how the whole world mocked the US when they pulled out from Afghanistan? Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the horrible sights of desperate Afghans attempting to flee Kabul were a prime illustration of US betrayal, vacillation, and poor diplomacy. The Western-backed government collapsed like a house of cards within months of withdrawal. Even though the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was long overdue and inevitable, the manner they did it—leaving the nation in ruins—made them a laughingstock.Not only it was an economic and military defeat, but it was also a moral defeat for the US. Even their allies in the west heavily criticized their decision of a messy withdrawal.After pouring in trillions of dollars, and killing thousands of innocent civilians the US achieved nothing out of this war against terror. Well, some people actually did make a fortune out of it because a huge chunk of it was funnelled back to US government contractors.The Chinese state media even mocked the operations in Afghanistan and said “When you feel life is going nowhere, just think: with 4 U.S. presidents, 20 years, 2 trillion dollars, 2,300 soldiers’ lives… the regime of Afghanistan changes from Taliban to… Taliban.However, the chaos in Afghanistan was only a reflection of how the US is losing its dominance in Asia.Many are worried that America will ditch Taiwan and straddle the fence. Even though they are clear on their foreign policy regarding Taiwan, it is hard to gauge how the US will intervene if China decides to annex Taiwan as it can lead to a potential war.Why Taiwan Matters?As Chinese power has grown, so has its aggression towards Taiwan. Its growing confidence and military strength make an attack on Taiwan very likely in the coming years. But it’s not just about strength and asserting dominance, there is also a sense of fear that can trigger this conflict.Many US presidents have vowed to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty and thriving democracy. President Joe Biden even stated several times that America would defend Taiwan if it were attacked. Even if America doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence explicitly, the US wants the Taiwanese people to decide for themselves.This ambiguous support for Taiwan makes it even more concerning for China as they have to keep guessing America’s intentions towards Taiwan.Despite its intense desire to seize control of Taiwan, China is delaying action in favour of taking it swiftly. Unlike his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the Chinese Premier probably will not engage in a reckless gamble with Taiwan soon. President Xi Jinping will probably assess all the scenarios and think about the counter-offensive from the west before taking Taiwan. And after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China will learn from the mistakes the Russians did with their military operations and will have a clear view of how the US and the west would retaliate.And they will certainly take some time to think about proofing China against the kind of sanctions and economic blockade that have crippled Russia. China is dipping its toes now and then by conducting military drills near Taiwan to show its dominance in the region and see how America reacts. Yet while the temperature around Taiwan will rise in 2023, it is unlikely to boil over into a hot conflict.China’s Influence in South AsiaFor now, China will be more interested in gaining political and economic influence in Southeast Asia. China’s investment is transforming its smaller Southeast Asian neighbours like never before. It’s transforming south Asian countries into economic hubs where they can export Chinese goods and provide Chinese companies with low-cost alternatives outside China.Additionally, China is making significant investments in infrastructure projects, particularly those connected to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For China, this will open up a safer and more effective trading route.China’s foreign policy is pretty straightforward: it’s recruiting other countries as supporters by becoming strategic and development partners. On the other hand, it’s turning poorer countries into clients by funding development projects.China, in contrast to the US, does not wish to meddle in the internal affairs of other nations.So it really doesn’t bother China how other countries are governed unless it clashes with their interest, which is significantly favourable for autocrats. Its financial aid and development projects are luring despots as customers, and its lack of scruples about abuses, democracy and human rights serves as an example to nations unhappy with the American-led status quo and their moral policing. Additionally, it opens the door for widespread corruption in nations with low democratic indices.China does not wish to impose its communist ideology or political system on other nations. They don’t necessarily want countries to adhere to a set level of human rights or democracy; instead, what they truly want is a global order that exerts less influence over the policies of any sovereign nation.China will also assert its dominance in the south China sea and will try to keep the tension in the region by provoking a crisis surrounding Japan’s disputed Senkaku islands.North Korea In PlayBut it’s not just China making the headlines in 2023, North Korea will also have its fair share of attention as the Nuclear thugocracy keeps the world on its toes with its sporadic nuclear warning. With North Korea, it’s always a minute to midnight.In 2022, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, warned that his country had the right to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike in the event of an attack or if they simply feel threatened. Kim keeps making fiery statements about North Korea’s missile program and its full preparedness for an actual war.If isolation can make you go insane, then it can’t be more true for North Korea. Being isolated from the whole world and dealing with all the sanctions from the west, North Korea is becoming frustrated and conducting a crazy amount of missile tests.Kim Jong Un will most likely cause controversy by detonating a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023, probably much before. This will be the state’s seventh test and its first since 2017. He wants to expand the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities for self-defence. Additionally, he will probably demonstrate his nuclear capabilities and use them as a negotiating chip to obtain diplomatic and financial perks from the United States and its allies.Just when there were whispers about Russia’s intention of using tactical nuclear weapons, North Korea joined the madness. And North Korea is a threat that’s very uncertain and can’t be measured. There is also a claim from Washington about North Korea helping Russian forces with missiles. This will further escalate the situation. North Korea lives with a fear of invasion and Kim Jong-un would go to any length to defend his country. And how North Korea reacts will depend a lot on the bilateral relationship between the US and South Korea.India’s Balancing ActAnother region that’s been heating up lately is the high altitude of the Himalayas. No, not because of climate change, it’s the Sino-Indian border dispute that’s been going on for decades and the sporadic conflict between the two powerful neighbours. This conflict dates back to the colonial era when the brits established these murky borders when they were India’s imperial power. In 1962, China unilaterally declared a cease-fire to conclude the India-China war after India lost the border conflict. Both countries have tried to arrive at a lasting peace, but this border conflict has eluded them.Today the relationship between the two nations is still sore but they are not itching for a fight. Both countries have different objectives for now. China wants its undivided focus to be on Taiwan and India is busy trying to better its economic situation. For years both countries have been trying to avoid war but still confronting each other at times and going back and forth. Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, knows that India will be outgunned in the mountain region. So it’s very likely that India won’t do any such thing to escalate the situation and will expect a calm border.But China is not on the same page. They are trying to provoke by building a military outpost near its disputed border with India. Or it just could be a display of power from China. whatever the reason is, the undercurrents of tensions between the two nations still remain and will be visible in the coming year.For now, India won’t be busy with its neighbours because there is still time for the next general election. Like earlier, Narendra Modi will probably exploit the “Pakistan” and “China” issues to further his political stance and gain mileage during the next election.In 2023 India will be busy shaping its economy and will emerge as an Asian powerhouse. While most south Asian countries were absorbing the economic shock of Covid-19, India came out relatively unscathed. India’s economic forecast shows massive growth in the coming years. The central bank’s rate rises have been less brutal than those of rich countries. In comparison to America and Britain, let alone Pakistan and Sri Lanka, inflation, at around 7%, was pleasantly surprising for India.India managed to come out strong after the setbacks caused by the pandemic which destroyed many better jobs and sent migrant workers back to the countryside. After the covid restrictions were lifted, migrants were able to move freely which revived the Indian economy and it became the fifth biggest economy, surpassing Britain.Turbulent Time For South Asian CountriesBut it wasn’t all sunshine for India’s neighbours. 2022 was a rough year for most south Asian countries financially and politically. Srilanka saw a massive uprising amid hyperinflation. When the country’s food and fuel supplies ran short, the people began to riot in the streets and the president was finally forced to leave the country. The Rajapaksa government became a prime example of a democratically chosen autocrat and dynastic politics.This year was disastrous for Pakistan. An even more severe natural disaster struck the nation just as it was recovering from the COVID-19 epidemic. This unprecedented flood in Pakistan came in with economic baggage of $30-$40 billion. It is estimated that Pakistan will require at least USD 16.3 billion in rehabilitation and reconstruction to support the country’s overall resilience to future climate shocks and its adaptation to climate change. Pakistan will also have to worry about its debt repayment.And Pakistan is not just suffering economically, the next year will be a more turbulent time in Pakistan’s politics. The ousted PM Imran Khan and his unwavering attitude toward changing the face of Pakistan politics are creating hurdles for the current regime. The Pakistani people are tired of the army deciding the course of Pakistan’s politics and Imran Khan has vowed to bring change. Even after a failed assassination attempt Imran Khan standstill.“I’m more worried about the freedom of Pakistan than my life,” he told the crowd. “I will fight for this country until my last drop of blood.”He keeps pressuring the administration by demanding an early election.The outcome of the next election will determine whether Pakistan’s Army continues to influence the country’s politics or if a more democratic Pakistan emerges.Another crisis is escalating in Myanmar, where the Army seized control by toppling the elected civilian administration in a coup. Beginning in 2011, the end of total military control showed a glimmer of hope for democratic changes. However, the military remained to influence of a large portion of the administration.Since the army took over in a coup last year, many have died. Years of oppressive military rule, extreme poverty, and civil strife with ethnic minority groups have all plagued the nation. The ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya population was spearheaded by the military.The opposition formed a shadow government and fighting force joining with the ethnic groups to fight the junta, leading to a civil war and humanitarian crisis that could spill over Myanmar’s borders.However, the generals are showing no intention of backing down and are becoming more oppressive with China’s unrelenting support. Neither it nor America wants Myanmar to serve as a new arena for great-power rivalry. However, the fuel that was poured will continue to burn the country for years.Concluding RemarkEven though Biden made remarks about not letting China “win the 21st century”, in reality, China is the one dominating; at least in Asia. The end of the American era had come much earlier and it’s becoming more visible with more countries leaning towards China. China’s nonchalant attitude towards human rights and democracy makes it more enticing for autocrats who don’t like American moral policing of democracy.But to believe that America would have less of an influence on world affairs would be foolish. America is and will remain a superpower for many more years to come. It’s just that, how influential it will be in the coming years will depend a lot on its internal politics rather than its foreign policy. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
For full coverage of the crisis in Ukraine, visit Flashpoint Ukraine.
The latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine. All times EDT.
3:18 p.m.: Norwegian police on Monday placed into custody two more Russians on suspicion of taking photographs of a restricted military installation in northern Norway, The Associated Press reported. Prosecutor Steffen Ravnåsen told Norwegian broadcaster NRK the Russian citizens - a man and a woman in their 30s - were arrested Saturday near Bjerkvik which houses Norwegian Armed Forces military facility and barracks. Norway is a member of NATO. Ravnåsen said the pair, who were in a car with Russian number plates, is suspected of illegally taking photos. The case has been referred to Norway’s domestic security agency PST which handles similar cases that involved Russians allegedly taking photos or flying drones illegally. In recent weeks, several Russian citizens have been detained in Norway including four Russian nationals — three men and one woman — who were seen taking photos in central Norway of objects covered under a ban on photography. They have since been released. 2:30 p.m.: 2:10 p.m.: Sweden’s center-right government will fulfil all requirements under a deal with Turkey to join NATO and will concentrate external relations to its immediate neighborhood while dropping the previous administration’s “feminist foreign policy,” the country’s top diplomat said Monday, according to the Associated Press.
Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said the new government shares Turkey’s concern about the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, Europe and the United States.
“There will be no nonsense from the Swedish government when it comes to the PKK,” Billstrom told the Associated Press in an interview. “We are fully behind a policy which means that terrorist organizations don’t have a right to function on Swedish territory.”
Turkey stalled Sweden's and Finland’s historic bids to join NATO over concerns that the two countries — Sweden in particular — had become a safe haven for members of the PKK and affiliated groups.
1:50 p.m.: Amid the ruins of two Ukrainian towns recently recaptured from Russian forces, the local population is cold and traumatized. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has this report. 1:30 p.m.: Iran will not remain indifferent if it is proven that its drones are being used by Russia in the Ukraine war, the Iranian foreign minister said Monday, amid allegations the Islamic Republic has supplied drones to Moscow to attack Ukraine, Reuters reported.
"If it is proven to us that Iranian drones are being used in the Ukraine war against people, we should not remain indifferent," state media cited Hossein Amirabdollahian as saying. However, Amirabdollahian said defense cooperation between Tehran and Moscow will continue. 1:20 p.m.: U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that Iran is “making a big mistake” by supplying Russia with drones that are targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure, the Associated Press reported.
“We’ve been trying for a while now to have a nuclear agreement with Iran so that we can make the world a safer place and now they’re going off aiding the Russians and making the world a less safe place,” Pelosi said in Zagreb, Croatia.
The United States and key Western allies have accused Russia of using Iranian-made drones to attack civilians and power plants in Ukraine. Iran has denied it is supplying Russia with the explosive-laden missiles but the distinctive triangle-shaped drones have been seen.
Pelosi was in Croatia to attend an international forum aimed at supporting Ukraine’s independence in the face of the Russian aggression.
1:05 p.m.: 12:45 p.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday called on Israel to join the fight against Russia and repeated a request for Israeli air defense systems, Reuters reported. "Isn't it time for your state to choose who you are with as well?" Zelenskyy said in a video speech to a conference for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. "Is it with the democratic world, which is fighting side by side against the existential threat to its existence? Or with those who turn a blind eye to Russian terror, even when the cost of continued terror is the complete destruction of global security," he said. Israel has condemned the Russian invasion. But it has been wary of straining relations with Moscow, a power broker in neighboring Syria where Israeli forces frequently attack pro-Iranian militia, and wants to ensure the wellbeing of Russia's Jews. 12:30 p.m.: 12:15 p.m.: The United States has no indications that Russia has decided to employ a nuclear weapon, biological weapon or chemical weapon, a U.S. military official told reporters on Monday, despite U.S. concerns about false Russian warnings of a Ukrainian dirty bomb plot, Reuters reported.
The remarks followed calls between the U.S. defense secretary and his Russian counterpart on Sunday and a call on Monday between the top U.S. and Russian generals.
11:50 a.m.: Ukraine’s top diplomat is urging the U.N. nuclear watchdog to immediately send an inspection team to the country to counter Moscow’s claim that Kyiv is preparing a “provocation” involving a dirty bomb, The Associated Press reported.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday he made the request in a call with Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Kuleba said Grossi agreed to send a team of inspectors, adding that “unlike Russia, Ukraine has always been and remains transparent. We have nothing to hide.”
The U.S., Britain and France said in a joint statement that they “reject Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.”
11:35 a.m.: Russian military Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and British Chief of Defense Staff Tony Radakin spoke by phone on Monday to discuss what Moscow called the possibility that Ukraine could use a "dirty bomb" with radioactive material, the Russian defense ministry said, according to Reuters.
It gave no further details of the call, which followed a series of conversations on Sunday in which Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Western defense ministers that Moscow believed Ukraine was preparing to detonate such a device.
VOA’s national security correspondent Jeff Seldin reported on Monday’s phone call, sharing on Twitter a statement by Britain’s Ministry of Defense which said Radakin spoke with Gerasimov and that he "rejected Russia’s allegations that Ukraine is planning actions to escalate the conflict, and he restated the UK’s enduring support for Ukraine." 11:20 a.m.: The Russian military says it has readied its forces for the possible use of a dirty bomb by Ukraine in a false flag attack to be blamed on Russia. That claim that has been strongly rejected by the U.S. and its allies, The Associated Press reported.
Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian military’s radiation, chemical and biological protection forces, said Monday that Russian military assets already had been prepared to operate in conditions of radioactive contamination.
Speaking at a briefing, Kirillov claimed that a dirty bomb explosion could spew deadly radiation at distances of up to 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).
Ukraine has rejected Moscow’s claims as an attempt to distract attention from its own plans to detonate a dirty bomb, and its Western allies also dismissed the Russian claims as “transparently false.”
11:05 a.m.: 10:50 a.m.: Ukraine’s top diplomat is urging the U.N. nuclear watchdog to immediately send an inspection team to the country to counter Moscow’s claim that Kyiv is preparing a “provocation” involving a dirty bomb, The Associated Press reported.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday he made the request in a call with Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Kuleba said Grossi agreed to send a team of inspectors, adding that “unlike Russia, Ukraine has always been and remains transparent. We have nothing to hide.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu alleged in phone calls with his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France and Turkey that Ukraine was preparing a provocation involving a dirty bomb — a device that uses explosives to scatter radioactive material.
The U.S., Britain and France said in a joint statement that they “reject Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.”
10:25 a.m.: Ukrainian forces are piling pressure on Russian troops in the southern region of Kherson that Moscow occupied at the start of its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Losing control of the region would be another big setback for President Vladimir Putin.
Reuters has published an explainer about why the region is strategically important for the course of Russia's war in Ukraine.
9:50 a.m.: 9:40 a.m.: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says rebuilding Ukraine will be a “task for a generation” that no country, donor or international institution can manage alone, The Associated Press reported.
Scholz spoke at a German-Ukrainian business forum on Monday, a day before he and the head of the European Union’s executive Commission host a gathering of experts to help mobilize international support for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The chancellor pointed to the EU’s decision in June to make Ukraine a candidate to join the bloc. He said that “this decision also sends a signal to private investors: anyone who invests in rebuilding Ukraine today is investing in a future EU member country that will be part of our legal community and our single market.”
Scholz said it’s important not just to repair destroyed energy plants and networks, but to make them more efficient — ultimately allowing an expansion of Ukrainian electricity exports to the EU and a step-by-step transition to climate neutrality.
He stressed the need for more transparency and “an even more determined fight against corruption” as Ukraine strives ultimately to join the EU.
9:20 a.m.: Ukraine estimates the cost of post-war national reconstruction at nearly $750 billion so far, Reuters reported Monday, citing Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
He made the comments in a speech to a German-Ukrainian business forum at which he touted the investment potential of the Ukrainian agriculture sector and thanked Berlin for providing Kyiv with air defenses.
Shmyhal told the forum that rebuilding will be a forward-looking process. He added that “in the process of transformation, incredible opportunities for European companies will open up — in the energy sector, in agriculture, in the military sector, in IT and all other (areas),” The Associated Press reported him as saying.
9:05 a.m.: Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov says that Russian forces aren’t going to pull back from the key southern city of Kherson any time soon, The Associated Press reported.
He said in an interview published Monday that the Russians are beefing up their defenses in the city amid a parallel effort to evacuate officials and encourage civilians to leave.
“In many aspects, it’s an information operation and a manipulation,” Budanov said, adding that the evacuation effort has “created an illusion that the game is lost.”
“At the same time, they are bringing in new military units and preparing the streets of the city for defense,” he added.
8:40 a.m.: A new poll shows that most Ukrainians consider it necessary to continue armed resistance against Russia, the Kyiv Independent reported Monday. 8:10 a.m.: Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dincu resigned on Monday, saying he could not collaborate with the country's president, amid pressure weeks after he said Ukraine's only chance to end the war was to negotiate with Russia. European Union and NATO state Romania shares a 650-kilometer (400 mile) border with Ukraine, is host to a U.S. ballistic missile defense system and, as of this year, has had a permanent alliance battlegroup stationed on its territory, Reuters reported.
Some 2.65 million Ukrainians have fled to Europe through Romania in the eight months since the war started.
"My gesture (resignation) comes as it is impossible to cooperate with the Romanian president, the army's commander-in-chief," Dincu said in a statement. "I think my withdrawal from the post is necessary so as to not harm decisions and programs which require fluid command chains and to not block a series of projects which are absolutely necessary for ... the ministry and the army."
In early October, Dincu said Ukraine needed international allies to negotiate security guarantees and peace with Russia, sparking criticism from President Klaus Iohannis and leaders of the ruling governing coalition. He later said his comments were taken out of context.
Iohannis said Ukrainians were paying with blood in the war and only they could decide what and when to negotiate, a position held by Romania and the EU.
7:50 a.m.: Ukraine’s presidential office said Monday that at least six civilians were killed and another five were wounded by Russian shelling of several Ukrainian regions over the previous 24 hours, The Associated Press reported.
The city of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region has come under the most intense attacks.
“The Russians have been shelling power plants, schools and hospitals, subjecting the elderly and the disabled to suffering and death in the cold and darkness,” Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said in televised remarks.
The southern Mykolaiv region also came under Russian shelling that targeted energy facilities.
Kyiv and seven other regions planned rolling blackouts Monday as authorities worked to fix the damage to energy facilities inflicted by the Russian bombardment.
Ukrainians were again asked to avoid using energy-hungry home appliances in an effort to lower the load on electricity networks.
7:25 a.m.: Ukraine's national anti-corruption agency declared former central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko a wanted man on Monday along with two employees of the Ukrgazbank lender, on suspicion of embezzling more than $5.42 million (200 million hryvnia).
Shevchenko abruptly resigned this month citing health problems, but later saying he had faced political pressure after an old embezzlement case against him was reawakened immediately after his departure, Reuters reported.
Shevchenko assumed the post in July 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic, promising to maintain the bank's independence and to cooperate with the International Monetary Fund.
In resigning, he noted the bank's successes since the start of Russia's invasion on February 24 this year, including the uninterrupted operation of the financial system and its prevention of panic on the foreign exchange market and of large-scale capital outflow to protect reserves.
7:05 a.m.: A U.N. spokesperson said on Monday that "much more needs to be done" to clear a backlog of more than 150 ships involved in a Black Sea grain-export deal, and Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations had all acknowledged the problem.
"There are currently over 150 vessels waiting around Istanbul to move and these delays have the potential to cause disruptions to the supply chain and port operations," said Ismini Palla, U.N. spokesperson for the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The agreement, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July, paved the way for Ukraine to resume grain exports from Black Sea ports that had been shut since Russia invaded, Reuters reported. Moscow also won guarantees for its own grain and fertilizer exports.
6:45 a.m.: French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis held nearly an hour of private talks on Monday, with the crisis in Ukraine and prospects for peace there expected to have been their main topic of discussion.
Macron, accompanied by his wife Brigitte, arrived at the Vatican and was greeted with an honor guard of Swiss Guards in the San Damaso courtyard before taking an elevator to the official papal study in the Apostolic Palace.
The Vatican said their private talks lasted 55 minutes. Both sides were expected to issue statements later.
Macron is in Italy to attend an international conference organized by Italy's Sant'Egidio Community, a worldwide peace and charity group.
He and the pope will jointly close the conference at a special ceremony at the Colosseum in Rome on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
Opening the conference on Rome's outskirts on Sunday, Macron said he believed there was a chance for peace in Ukraine, even as Russia warned the conflict could escalate.
As Macron meets Pope Francis, abuse victims urge swifter reparations. 6:20 a.m.: 6 a.m.: China's exports to sanctions-hit Russia rose at a double-digit pace for the third consecutive month in September, bucking the trend of weakening external demand elsewhere amid the Russia-Ukraine war and a global economic slowdown, Reuters reported.
Reuters calculations based on Chinese customs data on Monday showed shipments of Chinese goods to Russia rose 21.2% from a year earlier in dollar terms, slowing from a 26.5% increase in August yet outperforming China's overall export growth of 5.7% by a large margin, as interest rate hikes to curb red-hot inflation in major economies weakened demand for Chinese goods.
Top exports to Russia included smartphones, generator sets, excavators and containers.
Imports from Russia jumped 55.2% compared with a 59.3% increase in August, partly driven by a 22% annual rise in oil imports, the customs data showed.
Oil supplies from Russia totaled 7.46 million tons, equivalent to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with 1.96 million bpd in August.
As Western nations have shunned Russia, cooperation with Beijing has become increasingly important for Moscow. Bilateral trade has surged to $136.09 billion in value in the first nine months, up 32.5%.
5:30 a.m. Russian authorities in the occupied territory of Kherson continue to encourage residents to flee in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, according to The Guardian. The Russian-installed deputy head of the region Kirill Stremousov said about 25,000 people have been evacuated since Tuesday.
4:30 a.m.: A Russian TV presenter apologized on Monday for calling for Ukrainian children to be drowned, as Russia's state Investigative Committee said it was probing his remarks, Reuters reported.
In a show last week on state-controlled broadcaster RT, presenter Anton Krasovsky said Ukrainian children who saw Russians as occupiers under the Soviet Union should have been "thrown straight into a river with a strong current" and drowned.
Ukraine said on Sunday that RT was an inciter of genocide and should be banned worldwide. Margarita Simonyan, the channel's editor-in-chief, said she had suspended Krasovsky because of his "disgusting" comments, adding that no one at RT shared his views.
Krasovsky said in a social media post he was "really embarrassed."
4 a.m.: The Russian-installed administration of Ukraine's Kherson region said on Monday it was organizing some local men into militia units, Reuters reported.
In a notice on Telegram, the occupation authorities said men had the "opportunity" to join territorial defense units if they chose to remain in Kherson of their own free will.
However, men in other occupied Ukrainian regions such as Donetsk have previously been compelled to join and fight with the armies of Russia's proxies in the war with Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week declared martial law in the occupied regions, empowering their Russian-installed administrations to step up mobilization.
Compelling civilians to serve in the armed forces of an occupying power is defined as a breach of the Geneva Conventions on conduct in war.
Russian authorities have ordered civilians to evacuate from Kherson, one of four Ukrainian regions Russia said it had annexed last month even as Kyiv's forces have made significant military gains.
Russia and its proxies in Kherson have stepped up the urgency of their warnings to leave in the face of Ukraine's counter-offensive.
"It's vital to save your lives," Education Minister Sergei Kravtsov said in a video message on Sunday.
3:15 a.m.: Two Russian Indigenous Siberians were so scared of having to fight the war in Ukraine, they changed everything to take a small boat across the treacherous Bering Sea to reach American soil, Alaska’s senior U.S. senator said after talking with the two.
The two, identified as males by a resident, landed earlier this month near Gambell, on Alaska’s St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Strait, where they asked for asylum.
“They feared for their lives because of Russia, who is targeting minority populations, for conscription into service in Ukraine,” Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said Saturday during a candidate forum at the Alaska Federation of Natives conference in Anchorage.
“It is very clear to me that these individuals were in fear, so much in fear of their own government that they risked their lives and took a 15-foot skiff across those open waters,” Murkowski said when answering a question about Arctic policy.
Thousands of Russian men fled the country after Putin announced a mobilization in September to call up about 300,000 men to bolster Russia’s depleting forces in Ukraine.
2:30 a.m.: Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Renikov said he would be talking Monday with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about “another act of Russian nuclear blackmail and response of the Free World.” The foreign ministers of the United States, Britain and France reiterated their support for Ukraine in a statement late Sunday, and said their defense ministers made clear to Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu their rejection of “Russia’s transparently false allegations.”
For Austin, his phone call Sunday with Shoigu was the second between the two ministers in three days. The Pentagon said Austin rejected any pretext for Russian escalation and reaffirmed the value of continued communication amid “Russia’s unlawful and unjustified war against Ukraine.”
2 a.m.: Russia continues to use Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) against targets throughout the Ukrainian territory, the British Ministry of Defense said on Monday.
Russia is likely using the Iranian Shahed-136 UAVs to infiltrate Ukrainian air defenses and as a substitute for Russian-manufactured long-range precision weapons that are becoming increasingly scarce, the ministry said in its update on Twitter.
Ukrainian efforts to contain the UAVs have been successful, the ministry said. 1 a.m.: Ukraine rejected Russia's allegations that Ukrainian forces might detonate a radioactive device, and accused Russia of planning to carry out such an act and blame it on Ukraine.
“Russian lies about Ukraine allegedly planning to us a ‘dirty bomb’ are as absurd as they are dangerous,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his nightly address Sunday that Russia was the only one in the region capable of using nuclear weapons.
“If Russia calls and says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing something, it means one thing: Russia has already prepared all this,” Zelenskyy said. “I believe that now the world should react in the toughest possible way.”
12:05 a.m.: U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in Congress, will attend a forum in Zagreb this week aimed at supporting Ukraine's independence and the return of the Crimean peninsula to Kyiv, her office announced on Sunday, according to a Reuters report.
"Discussions will be centered on the international community's efforts to support the Ukrainian people while holding Russia accountable for its documented war crimes and attempted illegal annexations," Pelosi's office said in a statement.
Pelosi, who visited the war-torn country earlier this year, has been a strong supporter of providing aid and military assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded it on February 24.
Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
WASHINGTON — In late April, former U.S. Marine Trevor Reed returned home to the United States after two years of imprisonment in Russia. President Biden celebrated Reed’s return as a diplomatic coup, at a time of heightened hostility between Moscow and Washington over the war in Ukraine.“We won’t stop until Paul Whelan and others join Trevor in the loving arms of family and friends,” Biden said in a statement, referring to another former Marine now being held in Russia on what are almost certainly fabricated charges.Among those unnamed “others” was Brittney Griner, 31, the professional basketball star arrested at a Moscow airport in mid-February after cannabis vape cartridges were found in her luggage.Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner drives past Chicago Sky forward Candace Parker in Game 1 of the WNBA basketball Finals, on Oct. 10, 2021, in Phoenix. (Ralph Freso/AP)The White House initially tried to downplay the arrest, fearing that drawing attention to Griner’s plight would only make her more valuable in the Kremlin’s eyes. But as her trial began in Moscow last week on charges of cannabis possession and trafficking, her American supporters have grown more vociferous in their frustration, challenging the White House to do more to bring her home.For its part, the White House insists that it is doing everything it can. “This is an issue that is a priority for this president,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday. “The same focus that we did and put behind bringing Trevor Reed home, we’re going to do the same with Brittney Griner and others.”On Monday, Biden had received a handwritten letter from Griner. “I'm terrified I might be here forever," Griner wrote to the president. The Phoenix Mercury center had been traveling to Russia to play for UMMC Ekaterinburg, which she had done during the WNBA off-season since 2016. The team is owned by Andrei Kozitsyn, a mining magnate with close ties to the Kremlin.The letter marked a renewed effort by Griner’s family and supporters to publicize her plight, which could include a prolonged prison sentence. “I will not be quiet anymore,” Griner's wife, the singer Cherelle, who goes by one name, told CBS. “They're not moving, they're not doing anything,” she said of efforts by the Biden administration. “So my wife is struggling, and we have to help her."Brittney Griner arrives for a hearing at the Khimki court outside Moscow on July 1, 2022. (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)Mercury coach Vanessa Nygaard also made news when she said racism and sexism were hampering efforts to free Griner. “If it was LeBron, he'd be home, right?,” Nygaard said, referencing NBA superstar LeBron James. “It’s a statement about the value of women. It’s a statement about the value of a Black person. It’s a statement about the value of a gay person. All of those things. We know it, and so that’s what hurts a little more.”On Wednesday, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke Wednesday with Cherelle, according to a readout of the call released from the White House."The President called Cherelle to reassure her that he is working to secure Brittney's release as soon as possible, as well as the release of Paul Whelan and other U.S. nationals who are wrongfully detained or held hostage in Russia and around the world," the readout said.Griner’s camp was frustrated last month when a call between Cherelle and her imprisoned wife that was supposed to be routed through the U.S. embassy in Moscow failed to go through, due to what the State Department described as “a logistical error.” Cherelle, in response to the error, commented: “I have zero trust in our government right now,” she said at the time.Since then, the invigorated campaign by Cherelle and others — including several prominent LGBTQ organizations that sent a letter to the White House last month — has increased interest in Griner’s story in the American media, but it is not clear what effect that will have on Russian courts.In this image from video, the singer Cherelle, wife of WNBA star Brittney Griner, speaks to the Associated Press on June 20, 2022. (AP)“This isn’t just about Brittney,” says Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon, a University of Pennsylvania scholar who has studied Black identity in the Soviet Union. “Paul Whelan has been held in Russian custody for more than four years. He is a straight white man. We have to think about both of their cases in the context of international foreign policy.”St. Julian-Varnon notes that Griner was arrested a few days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, two developments that she believes are closely linked. “We have to be very careful about how we approach her case,” she told Yahoo News. “Her case is fundamentally tied to the war in Ukraine.”Russian President Vladimir Putin will no doubt seek concessions from the U.S. in exchange for Griner’s pardon or release. In 2020, Russia released a 27-year-old Israeli American traveler, Naama Isaachar, from prison after she, too, had been arrested and imprisoned for cannabis possession. In exchange, Israel transferred the rights to a Russian Orthodox church in Jerusalem back to Russia.In exchange for the far more high-profile Griner, the Kremlin could seek the return of Viktor Bout, a notorious arms dealer imprisoned in the United States. The White House has said nothing about a potential deal involving Bout.Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, center, is escorted by Drug Enforcement Administration officers after arriving at Westchester County Airport in White Plains, N.Y., on Nov. 16, 2010. (U.S. Department of Justice/Handout via Reuters)In general, the White House believes that the less attention devoted to Americans captured abroad the better, based on the conviction that public outrage ultimately only benefits the captors and gives them more negotiating leverage. After a New York Times journalist was captured by the Taliban in 2008, the newspaper labored to keep news of his imprisonment from the press for more than half a year, until he finally managed to escape the following June.As a 6-foot-9 basketball superstar, and as a queer Black woman not afraid to voice her opinions on social justice issues, Griner was bound to attract attention. That made her case more fraught than that of imprisoned Americans, like Whelan and Reed, neither of whom was widely known before they were arrested.St. Julian-Varnon believes that her celebrity and identity could help Griner, as could the fact that she was on her way to play for a Russian team owned by an oligarch close to the Kremlin. “She is not being treated the same way a Russian detained in pretrial detention is being treated,” St. Julian-Varnon said. “She is too high profile. That is one of the benefits of the African American uproar over her detainment.”Brittney Griner at a game against Australia in a Tokyo 2020 Olympic women's basketball quarterfinal game in Saitama, Japan, on Aug. 4, 2021. (Brian Snyder/AP)Biden’s political enemies have also commented on the Griner case, contrasting his efforts with then-President Donald Trump’s successful effort to secure the release of the rapper A$AP Rocky from a Swedish prison. “President Trump would have had her home weeks ago. Everyone knows it!” the Republican members of the House judiciary committee tweeted on Tuesday.Other conservatives have highlighted Griner’s social justice convictions, which lend her case an added edge that Russia – ever aware of fractures in American public opinion – could potentially exploit.The White House insists that it has been working every diplomatic angle available to bring Griner home. Officials at the National Security Council pointed Yahoo News to a statement from NSC spokeswoman Adrienne Watson. “The President’s team is in regular contact with Brittney’s family and we will continue to work to support her family,” the statement said. Watson added that the White House was “closely coordinating” with Roger D. Carstens, who leads the State Department’s hostage affairs efforts.“This isn't a Jason Bourne movie,” says St. Julian-Varnon. “Just because you don't know what the State Department is doing in this case doesn't mean the State Department is doing nothing."Griner’s trial resumes on Thursday. If convicted on trafficking charges, she could face a decade in prison. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Elite Afghan commandos are being contacted with offers to fight for Russia in Ukraine, reports Foreign Policy. The soldiers were once trained by US Navy SEALs but were left behind when the Taliban took over last year. One Afghan official said he believed Russia's mercenary Wagner Group is behind the recruitment drive. Loading Something is loading. Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Afghan commandos that were trained by the US are being recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, according to a report from Foreign Policy.Members of Afghanistan's elite National Army Commando Corps were left behind by the United States when the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021.Now, commandos say they are being contacted on WhatsApp and Signal with offers to fight for Russia, according to the outlet.The messages, seen by Foreign Policy, say: "Anyone who would like to go to Russia with better treatment and good resources: please send me your name, father's name, and your military rank." Military and security officials in Afghanistan told the outlet that they fear up to 10,000 commandos could be tempted by such an offer, as many of them were left jobless and fearful for their life as they became targets for the Taliban."They have no country, no jobs, no future. They have nothing to lose," one military source told the outlet.One former Afghan commando officer told Foreign Policy that he believed the shadowy Wagner Group was behind the recruitment drive. "I am telling you [the recruiters] are Wagner Group. They are gathering people from all over. The only entity that recruits foreign troops [for Russia] are Wagner Group, not their army. It's not an assumption; it's a known fact," he said. Earlier this year a video emerged of the group's suspected founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close Putin ally, recruiting prisoners from Russian jails to fight in Ukraine in exchange for shortened sentences.Thousands of the Afghan commandos fled to neighboring countries following the Taliban takeover last year, and many are now losing hope in the possibility that they could be settled in Western countries. Many are still in hiding in Afghanistan.Afghan media reported that soldiers were being offered Russian citizenship in exchange for fighting in Ukraine.One former Afghan commando captain, 35, told Foreign Policy that he had helped connect colleagues with a recruitment office in Tehran, and those who took up the offer were flown to Russia via Iran. "When they accept Russia's offer, the commando personnels' phones are turned off. They proceed very secretly," the commando, who is himself hiding in Afghanistan, said.He said that he turned down the offer because he views Russia as Afghanistan's enemy after the Soviet Union sparked a nine-year war by invading Afghanistan in 1979, but that others might have taken it up out of desperation."We are very disappointed. For 18 years, shoulder to shoulder, we performed dangerous tasks with American, British, and Norwegian consultants. Now, I am in hiding. I am suffering every second," he told the outlet.The Afghan Elite National Army Commando Corps, made up of 20,000 to 30,000 volunteers, was partly trained by US Navy SEALs and the British Special Air Service, per Foreign Policy. While, in general, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces were seen as incompetent, the commandos were well respected.A former senior Afghan security official, speaking anonymously to Foreign Policy, said that the Afghan fighters "would be a game-changer" in the war. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have destroyed his economy, but give him credit: He is the president-whisperer. Erdogan has charmed or cajoled into inaction George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. While Joe Biden promised to hold Erdogan accountable for his actions, Biden’s top aides now void that pledge. The result is strategic shortsightedness unseen in a half-century and a price for appeasement that Biden will force allies and democracies to pay. First, some history: Detente between the United States and the People’s Republic of China was Henry Kissinger’s legacy achievement, but it came at a high cost. While Kissinger assured colleagues that he would protect other American allies, the declassified record shows that he almost gleefully undermined Taiwan more than the White House expected or than he admitted at the time. The secret assurances and concessions Kissinger gave Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai emboldened Beijing to expect not only an end to Washington’s diplomatic relations with Taipei but also an end to Taiwan’s existence as a separate entity free from Communist domination. While fear of the Soviet Union greased U.S.-China rapprochement, Kissinger’s willingness to betray Taiwanese freedom had more to do with Vietnam: He wanted Mao’s support as the U.S. sought to leave the Vietnam War and calculated Taiwan would be an even trade. Only after Henry Kissinger left government service did the damage he wrought become apparent, as China’s Communist leaders pulled out Kissinger’s secret statements to stymie first President Jimmy Carter and then Ronald Reagan’s efforts to protect Taiwan’s freedom. Decades after the Vietnam War ended and the Soviet Union dissolved, Kissinger’s belief that he could trade away others' freedoms for short-term gain not only undermines Taiwan but may also color China’s thinking that it has a right to invade a state over which, Beijing’s rhetoric aside, China has no legal, historical, or ethnographic claim. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden has repeatedly moved to appease Turkey. Put aside the fact that Turkey sides more with Russia than Ukraine, blocking Western ships from the Black Sea (where Russia already has its Navy) and allowing Russia to evade sanctions. Even when Turkey has sold some drones to Ukraine, it has done so more for profit than solidarity. The U.S. kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program after Erdogan turned to Moscow for an advanced anti-aircraft system, the operation of which could teach Russia how to defeat America’s next-generation Joint Strike Fighter. Biden then offered Turkey upgrade kits and new F-16s just as Ankara threatened a new invasion of Syria’s Kurdish-controlled autonomous zone. Syrian Kurds, Christians, and Yezidis should not pay the price for Erdogan’s blackmail over Swedish and Finnish NATO accession. The same holds true for Cyprus. The State Department often demands Cyprus concede its rights as a trade-off for Turkey ending its rogue behavior elsewhere. Now, almost a half-century since Turkey occupied a third of the island, Biden’s conciliatory attitude has emboldened Erdogan to threaten outright annexation. Greece, too, may pay the price for Biden's appeasement. Just days after Biden granted Erdogan a meeting to keep the mercurial dictator happy, the Turkish government unveiled a map claiming dozens of Greek islands. Whenever Biden signals a willingness to meet Erdogan halfway, the Turkish leader simply moves the goal posts. After Congress vetoed any F-16 sale, Biden’s team may now make Armenia pay the price. CIA Director William Burns last week traveled secretly to Yerevan to discuss peace in the region. There is no indication, however, that he visited either Turkey or Azerbaijan, raising suspicion that he may demand Armenia abandon Nagorno-Karabakh in order to keep Turks happy. It wouldn’t be the first time
. Like Kissinger, Biden relishes his reputation as a foreign policy master. But Kissinger’s triumphs have not stood the test of time. For Biden to succeed, he must recognize rather than replicate Kissinger’s worst mistake: betraying liberty and freedom to appease irredentist dictators.
Michael Rubin (
@mrubin1971
) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Key events6m agoWelcome and summaryShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featureWelcome and summaryHello and welcome to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine. My name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be taking you through the latest for the next few hours.Evacuees from Ukraine’s southern Kherson region are expected to begin arriving in Russia on Friday, Reuters reports, after a Moscow-installed official suggested residents should leave for safety, a sign of Russia’s weakening hold on territory it claims to have annexed.Meanwhile Ukraine’s armed forces have liberated more than 600 settlements from the Russian occupation in the past month, including 75 in the highly strategic Kherson region, Ukraine’s Ministry for Reintegration of the Temporary Occupied Territories said late on Thursday, Reuters reports. There was no immediate confirmation from Ukraine’s military or President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office and the Guardian has not independently verified the battlefield reports.“The area of liberated Ukrainian territories has increased significantly,” the ministry said in a statement on its website.We’ll have more on these developments shortly. In the meantime, here is a summary of the key recent news: Russia announced it will evacuate residents from Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the southern Ukrainian region will become a new frontline. Ukraine’s army boasted of territorial gains near the city of Kherson on Wednesday as Nato allies including the UK delivered new air defence systems in the wake of Russia’s recent missile attacks across the country. The city of Mykolaiv, 60 miles north-west of Kherson city, was pummelled by Russian missiles, with one strike on a five-storey apartment block killing a 31-year-old man and an 80-year-old woman. Five further people were said to still be under rubble. Mykolaiv regional governor, Vitaliy Kim, said an 11-year-old boy was pulled from the rubble after six hours and rescue teams were searching for seven more people. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow that its forces would be “annihilated” by the west’s military response if president Vladimir Putin used nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, did not discuss ways to resolve the conflict in Ukraine at their bilateral meeting on Thursday, the state-run RIA news agency reported, citing the Kremlin. Instead, Putin courted Erdoğan with a plan to pump more Russian gas via Turkey that would turn it into a new supply “hub”, in a bid to preserve Russia’s energy leverage over Europe. Russia said it had summoned diplomats from Germany, Denmark and Sweden to complain that representatives from Moscow and Gazprom had not been invited to join an investigation into ruptures of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. “Russia will obviously not recognise the pseudo-results of such an investigation unless Russian experts are involved,” the foreign ministry said. Russia will run out of supplies and armaments before the west does, the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, claimed. He said procurement processes were in place among allies in the west that would ensure that the international community could continue arming Ukraine for years ahead. Ukrainian officials claimed Iranians in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine were training Russians in how to use the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone, which can conduct air-to-surface attacks, electronic warfare and targeting. Their deployment may indicate the Russian military is running out of its own drones. Moscow has submitted its concerns to the United Nations about an agreement on Black Sea grain exports, and is prepared to reject renewing a deal next month unless its demands are addressed, Russia’s Geneva UN ambassador told Reuters. Ukraine’s power grid has been “stabilised” after Russian strikes that targeted energy infrastructure, causing power and hot water cuts, the national energy operator Ukrenergo said Thursday. A residential building in the southern Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border was hit Thursday in shelling by Kyiv’s forces, the city governor said today. Mykhaylo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser, denied Kyiv’s military was responsible and said Russia had tried to shell Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv on the border “but something went wrong”. The admission of Ukraine to Nato could result in a third world war, the deputy secretary of the Russian security council, Alexander Venediktov, told Russian state Tass news agency in an interview on Thursday. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The United States is warning China against material and security assistance to Russia in Moscow’s war on Ukraine, laying out Washington’s red line ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing early next month.
Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Michael Chase spoke to Song Yanchao, deputy director of China’s Office for International Military Cooperation of the Central Military Commission, according to a U.S. official who spoke to VOA on condition of anonymity.
This week’s military-to-military talks come as the U.S. is monitoring closely any decisions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in response to Russian requests for security assistance. The U.S. official took note of reports about multiple visits to China by Russian transport aircraft.
“I don’t have a new assessment to offer,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price told VOA last week when asked if it is still Washington’s assessment that Beijing is not providing security assistance to Russia.
“If we see the PRC taking action to systemically assist Russia evade sanctions, of course there will be costs,” said Price.
Tuesday’s two-hour talks came after China turned down a U.S. offer for military de-confliction talks between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe earlier this month.
During a press conference at the State Department after the U.S.-Japan 2+2 talks last week, Austin said he has asked his Chinese counterpart to meet the U.S. “halfway” and keep “open lines of communication” to avoid miscalculation. Wei is retiring in March. Li Shangfu, a new member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission (CM) is widely seen as the PRC’s next minister of national defense.
Li was sanctioned by the U.S. government in 2018 due to Chinese purchases of advanced Russian fighters and missile systems. But the U.S. sanctions would not prevent Li from holding official meetings with American officials, according to a State Department official.
During Tuesday’s talks, the U.S. official told VOA that China also raised concerns about a potential visit to Taiwan by the new U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy said last year he would visit Taiwan if he became the house speaker, a move that would anger China.
China claims sovereignty over the self-ruled democracy, a claim rejected by Taiwan.
U.S. diplomats and military officials have pointed out that the House of Representatives operates independently from the Biden administration and cautioned China against an overreaction near the Taiwan Strait that may lead to an “unintended” military accident.
“We can’t hold our foreign policy hostage to things that China may or may not do,” said a senior State Department official. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The EU presidency has called for the establishment of an international tribunal for war crimes after new mass graves were found in Ukraine.“In the 21st century, such attacks against the civilian population are unthinkable and abhorrent,” said Jan Lipavský, foreign minister of the Czech Republic, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency.“We must not overlook it. We stand for the punishment of all war criminals,” he added in a message on Twitter. “I call for the speedy establishment of a special international tribunal that will prosecute the crime of aggression.”The appeal follows the discovery by Ukrainian authorities of about 450 graves outside the formerly Russian-occupied city of Izium, with most of the exhumed bodies showing signs of torture.“Among the bodies that were exhumed today, 99% showed signs of violent death,” Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv’s regional administration, said on social media.“There are several bodies with their hands tied behind their backs, and one person is buried with a rope around his neck,” he added.“Russia leaves only death and suffering. Murderers. Torturers,” said Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Some of the remains exhumed included children and people who were likely tortured before dying, he added.The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, on Friday said that the graves likely provided more evidence that Russia is committing war crimes in its pro-western neighbouring country.The French president, Emmanuel Macron, joined the condemnation, describing what had happened in Izium as atrocities.“I condemn in the strongest terms the atrocities committed in Izyum, Ukraine, under Russian occupation,” Macron tweeted.The Ukrainian parliament’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, said there were “probably more than 1,000 Ukrainian citizens tortured and killed in the liberated territories of the Kharkiv region”.The Ukraine national police chief, Igor Klymenko, said they had found multiple torture rooms in the town of Balakliya and elsewhere in Kharkiv since the Russians were driven out.The UN in Geneva has said it hopes to send a team to determine the circumstances of the deaths.The discoveries came a little more than five months after the Russian army, driven out of the vicinity of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, left behind hundreds of corpses of civilians, many of whom bore the traces of torture and summary executions.The EU is “deeply shocked” at the discovery by Ukrainian officials of mass graves in the recaptured city of Izium, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday.“This inhuman behaviour by the Russian forces, in total disregard of international humanitarian law and the Geneva conventions, must stop immediately,” he saidOn Thursday, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said she wanted Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to face the international criminal court over war crimes in Ukraine.In Washington, the US president, Joe Biden, warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin against using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons after serious losses in his war in Ukraine.“Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” Biden said, in an excerpt from an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes aired on Friday evening.Biden was responding to an interviewer’s question about the possibility of Putin, whose army is incurring heavy losses in the Ukrainian counteroffensive this month, resorting to chemical or tactical nuclear weapons. “You would change the face of war unlike anything since the second world war,” Biden said.“They will become more of a pariah in the world, more than they have ever been,” the US leader added.Ukrainian forces have recaptured thousands of square kilometres in recent weeks thanks to a counter-offensive in the north-east and now threaten enemy positions in the south.The Russians “are angry because our army is pushing them back in its counter-offensive,” said Svitlana Shpuk, a 42-year-old worker in Kryvyi Rih, a southern town, and Zelenskiy’s home town, which was flooded after a dam was destroyed by Russian missiles.Synegoubov said that an 11-year-old girl was killed by missile fire in the region.Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of Donestk in eastern Ukraine which has been partially controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, said on social media that Ukrainian firefighters were battling a fire there and that the bombing had led to cuts in drinking water.“The occupiers are deliberately targeting infrastructure in the area to try to inflict as much damage as possible, primarily on the civilian population,” he said.The Russian army denies targeting civilian infrastructure or residential areas.In its daily briefing in Moscow, the Kremlin said it had carried out “high-precision” strikes against Ukrainian positions in the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Former Vice President Mike Pence on Friday called for increased urgency from the Biden administration in providing support for Ukraine and warned of the risks of heeding those Republicans who have pushed for less U.S. involvement in the war there.
Speaking at the University of Texas at Austin on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the former vice president and potential 2024 presidential candidate argued it is in America’s interest to support the Ukrainian people.
“Make no mistake: This is not America’s war. But if we falter in our commitment to providing the support to help people of Ukraine to defend their freedom, our sons and daughters may soon be called upon to defend ours,” Pence said. “If we surrender to the siren song of those in this country who argue that America has no interest in freedom’s cause, history teaches we may soon send our own into harm’s way.”
“It would be foolish to think that Putin’s tanks will stop at Ukraine’s western border,” Pence added.
Pence said Russian President Vladimir Putin bore responsibility for the war in Ukraine, and he cautioned that there can be “no room in the leadership of the Republican Party for apologists for Putin.”
The former vice president made a similar comment in the days after the invasion began in what was seen as a veiled swipe at former President Trump, who during his time in the White House often flattered Putin and said last year that the Russian leader showed “savvy” and “genius” in unilaterally declaring portions of eastern Ukraine were independent republics.
While congressional Republican leaders like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have been consistently supportive of backing Ukraine’s war effort, some prominent GOP lawmakers have been far more skeptical of U.S. support.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has called for an audit of the funds the U.S. has approved for Ukraine and earlier this week called for a “national divorce,” tweeting, “We don’t pay taxes to fund foreign country’s wars who aren’t even NATO ally’s.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a likely 2024 presidential candidate, went on Fox News this week to criticize the Biden administration’s “blank check policy” for support for Ukraine, and dismissed the idea that Russia might press past Ukraine and into NATO countries.
Pence: Biden is ‘hesitant in leadership’
Pence’s speech on Friday came after a year of war in Ukraine, with hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, scores of Ukrainians driven to flee the country and the U.S. accusing Russia of perpetrating war crimes as its military bombed and invaded Ukrainian cities.
While the Biden administration and Congress have provided billions of dollars in military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Pence accused the White House of being “hesitant in leadership.”
“This week, President Biden said in Poland that Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” Pence said. “But to ensure this, we must accelerate the pace of military provisions to Ukraine.”
Pence pointed specifically to a January announcement that the Biden administration would provide Ukraine with 31 Abrams tanks after pleas from Kyiv for the vehicles. But the secretary of the Army this week said those tanks may not reach the battlefield in Ukraine this year due to the time it takes to produce and transport the tanks and train Ukrainian soldiers on the equipment.
“That’s not good enough,” Pence said Friday. “Time is of the essence. We need to provide tanks and resources in months, not years, to the people of Ukraine so they can defend their country.”
Pence also called for continued humanitarian and economic assistance for the people of Ukraine. The former vice president met with refugees last March who had spilled over the Ukrainian border into Poland.
Pence’s speech, meant to showcase his foreign policy credentials, comes as he is mulling a possible 2024 presidential bid, with a decision expected in the coming weeks. He has frequently visited early voting states like Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Trump and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley have already announced their candidacies, with other GOP officials like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) expected to make decisions about whether to run in the coming months. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday outlined to world leaders his five non-negotiable conditions to achieve peace with Russia, nearly seven months into the war that has seen thousands killed.Speaking in a pre-recorded video message broadcast to the UN General Assembly in New York, Zelensky called for Russia to be punished for launching an invasion against its neighbor Ukraine on February 24.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to world leaders via a video link as they attend the 77th United Nations (UN) General Assembly which has returned in person this week for the first time in three years on September 21, 2022 in New York City. The leader of Ukraine has outlined the five conditions that will bring peace in the war with Russia.
Spencer Platt/Getty
"A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand punishment," Zelensky said in his address, which led to a standing ovation from delegates at the UN."Ukraine wants peace. Europe wants peace. The world wants peace. And we have seen who is the only one who wants war. There is only one entity among all UN member states who would say now, if he could interrupt my speech, that he is happy with this war, with his war."As part of his five conditions, Zelensky said that Russia must be punished for waging war on Ukraine, through further sanctions and by the UN stripping Moscow of its powerful role as a permanent Security Council member. Russia's status means it has the power to veto any resolution or decision, whatever the majority opinion is within the council.Zelensky also said Ukrainian lives must be protected and that the country's internationally recognized borders be respected.His fourth and fifth conditions included a call for new security guarantees for Ukraine and the world to unite in calling out Russia's armed aggression. Zelensky warned that Russia may plan to use this winter to prepare its military forces for a renewed assault on Ukraine.The president said the partial mobilization showed that Moscow was not serious about peace talks. Previous negotiations with Ukraine and Russia to end the fighting had failed, he noted.Zelensky also renewed his country's call for more Western-made weapons to help it fight Russia.""For us, this is a war for life. That is why we need defense support, weapons, military equipment and shells. Offensive weapons, a long-range one is enough to liberate our land, and defensive systems, above all, air defense. And we need financial support, to keep internal stability and fulfill social obligations to our people," Zelensky said.Following the speech, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters that the bloc would apply additional sanctions on Russia.Earlier on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called up 300,000 military reservists to fight in the war, in the country's first partial mobilization since World War II.The move sparked dozens of protests in Russian cities, leading to more than 1,000 arrests for opposing the war.Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told Newsweek in an interview on Wednesday that the U.S. was at risk of becoming a combatant in the Ukraine conflict. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
In 2012, Mitt Romney, then the Republican Presidential candidate, was mocked by liberals after claiming Russia is America's "No. 1 geopolitical foe."Much of the U.S. right, particularly in Congress, still subscribe to anti-Kremlin positions, but a vocal minority have been taking positions that are either sympathetic towards, or openly supportive of, Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Legacy Sports USA on October 9, 2022 in Mesa, Arizona. Michael O’Hanlon blamed Trump for Republicans "cozying up to Putin."
Mario Tama/GETTY
In February 2022, just days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, former President Donald Trump praised Putin for the "very savvy" and "genius" move of declaring two regions of Eastern Ukraine, which were partly under the control of pro-Russian separatists, to be independent states.Trump went on to condemn the Russian invasion as "a horrible thing," saying the world was "watching a holocaust."However, at a Pennsylvania rally in September, he said that Putin, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping, are "smart" and "fierce," describing them as "at the top of their game."Earlier in October, Trump attacked the Democrats for "almost forcing" Russia to invade Ukraine, comments that were eagerly rebroadcast by Russian state TV.A number of Trump's most-outspoken supporters in Congress have spoken out against U.S. military aid for Ukraine.In June, Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted that the Biden administration had given "$54 billion to Ukraine in a proxy war w/ Russia against the American people's will."The Georgia representative added: "Grinding up Ukraine to fight with Russia is disgusting, they could have been an ally."Florida representative Matt Gaetz, who, like Greene, voted against a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine in May, retweeted Elon Musk's warning on Sunday that "Nuclear war probability is rising rapidly."Gaetz added: "Maintaining Ukraine as an international money-laundering Mecca isn't worth this."In March 2022, Madison Cawthorn, another House Republican who has voted against aid for Kyiv, branded Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky "a thug" and the Ukrainian government "incredibly evil," less than a month after the Russian invasion began.Earlier this October, Alex Jones, the right-wing conspiracy theorist, tweeted that American liberals "have a fetish for hating Russians & Putin because they've become more Christian."The Infowars founder added: "The Left hates Russia because they're becoming more like the American Midwest. That's why Hollywood and Rob Reiner literally has a fetish for destroying Russia."Michael O'Hanlon, director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, told Newsweek that Trump was key to the transformation on the U.S. right.O'Hanlon said: "I really think it's all about Trump. I can't imagine my GOP friends cozying up to Putin otherwise. And, of course, most Republicans still don't."Rick Wilson, co-founder of anti-Trump conservative group the Lincoln Project, told Newsweek that some on the U.S. right are seeking to "replace democracy."He said: "Democracy is hard work, and they want a short cut to achieve their craven policy ends without doing the work."They want to put the control of all the people in the hands of a government that reflects their own ideological bias. It's easy to see why they would want to replace democracy with a system that allows that they alone benefit from." In December 2021, Tom Nichols, another anti-Trump conservative, said that the former president had a "creepy, man-crush attraction to authoritarian rulers" in an article for The Atlantic.Speaking to The Washington Post, Craig Shirley, a former Republican consultant and Reagan biographer, said that the GOP had become "a little schizophrenic" as U.S. domestic politics clashes with the old Cold War dislike of Moscow.Shirley said: "Don't look for consistency in Republican policy. The Republican Party right now is a little schizophrenic."Anti-communism and love of freedom used to be the glue that held the party together, but now the attitudes toward Russia have gotten all mixed up with domestic politics."Newsweek has contacted the Republican Party and Donald Trump for comment. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict outside the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine August 4, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko//File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryThis content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine.MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Russia on Monday accused Kyiv of trying to "take Europe hostage" by shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.In a statement, Russia's foreign ministry said it wanted the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit the plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, but that Kyiv was blocking a potential visit."They are taking the whole of Europe hostage and are not against setting fire to it for the sake of their Nazi idols," Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRussia has said for months its military campaign in Ukraine is aimed to "de-nazify" Ukraine - claims rejected by Kyiv and Western leaders who see Moscow's actions as an attempt to topple Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and seize swathes of Ukraine's eastern and southern territory.The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has become the latest flashpoint in the months-long conflict, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of shelling the power station in recent days.The plant is in Russian-controlled territory but is manned by Ukrainian staff.Moscow says it had done everything it could to facilitate a visit by the IAEA to the nuclear power station, but that Kyiv saw it as "beneficial to keep the IAEA away".Zakharova, Moscow's combative official foreign policy spokesperson, also attacked the international community for refusing to criticise Kyiv over the attacks."The leaders of the United Nations and the IAEA, over and over again, do not dare to directly name the source of the threat. They are demonstrating their unwillingness to point the finger at Kyiv," she said.Ukraine has called for a demilitarised area to be set up around the nuclear plant, while U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said attacks against nuclear facilities were a "suicidal thing".Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Nick MacfieOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukrainian artillery fires at Russian forces in the Donetsk Oblast on October 28.Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesArtillery has played a dominant role on the battlefield in Ukraine.When Russia invaded in February, its artillery outnumbered and outranged Ukraine's arsenal.But weapons provided by foreign partners have given Ukraine a large and diverse array of big guns.With foreign weapons pouring into Ukraine, the Ukrainian military may end up with one of the world's most eclectic collections of artillery.Take howitzers, for example. When Russia invaded in February, Ukraine's army fielded the standard array of Cold War-era weapons found in former Soviet republics and satellites.Its array of 122 mm, 152 mm and 203 mm cannon mirrored those used by Russia's military. But in the early months of the war, Ukrainian troops found themselves outnumbered and outranged by Moscow's immense arsenal of more numerous and modern weapons.Ukrainian troops with a captured Russian self-propelled gun in Izium on September 14.Viacheslav Mavrychev/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC "UA:PBC"/Global Images Ukraine via Getty ImagesBut many NATO countries have sent or promised to send a bewildering variety of weapons, including tank-like howitzers mounted on tracked chassis, wheeled cannon that more resemble big armored cars, and guns towed by trucks.Despite bringing with it logistical and training challenges, this polyglot and hastily assembled array of firepower — along with multiple rockets launchers such as the US-made HIMARS – have enabled Ukrainian forces to counterattack successfully and begin driving Russian troops out of occupied territory.With Ukraine depleting its stockpiles of Soviet artillery and ammunition, Western artillery will increasingly dominate Ukraine's arsenal.Here are some of the imported howitzers that Ukraine is using:M777Ukrainian troops fire an M777 in the Kharkiv Region on July 28.Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesThe M777 is a towed 155 mm howitzer fielded by the US Army and Marine Corps as well as the militaries of Australia, Canada, India, and Saudi Arabia. The US, Australia and Canada have sent more than 170 M777s, plus ammunition, to Ukraine.The 5-ton howitzer, which is based on a British design, can fire regular rounds up to 15.5 miles and fire rocket-assisted projectiles out to 18.6 miles. With precision-guided rounds like the M982 Excalibur it can reach targets up to 25 miles away. The gun can be put in place — and towed away to a new firing position — within three minutes.M777 manufacturer BAE Systems is considering restarting production of the weapon in light of renewed interest generated by its performance in Ukraine.M198US Marines fire an M198.LCpl Samantha L. Jones/USMCFirst deployed in 1979, the M198 was replaced by the M777 in the US Army and Marine Corps around 2005.The M198 is a heavier weapon — at about 8 tons, it's almost double what the M777 weighs — and reports indicate it has a firing range similar to the M777 with standard shells.But with Ukraine desperately needing artillery to oppose Russia's immense number of guns, the Pentagon pulled old M198s out of storage.M119/L119US soldiers fire an M119 during an exercise.US ArmyAnother British design, the UK's L119 towed 105 mm howitzer became the M119 in US service.Weighing in at only about 2 tons, the weapon was designed for airborne and light infantry troops.As a smaller-caliber and lighter weight howitzer, it has a reduced range of less than 12 miles.PzH 2000A Lithuanian army PzH 2000 at the Grafenwöhr Training Area in Germany in May 2021.US Army/Spc. Denice LopezGermany and the Netherlands have already delivered 10 of the German-designed Panzerhaubitze 2000 armored self-propelled 155 mm howitzers to Ukraine.Weighing in at 57 tons, the PzH 2000 can shoot standard shells out to a range of around 25 miles and special long-range shells out to 40 miles.CaesarA French Caesar self-propelled howitzer fires into the Middle Euphrates River Valley in December 2018.US Army/Sgt. 1st Class Mikki SprenkleFrance's Caesar is a 155 mm howitzer mounted on a six-wheeled truck.Weighing in at about 20 tons, the Caesar can shoot out to 25 miles using regular shells or to 30 miles using rocket-assisted shells.France has already delivered 18 Caesars to Ukraine and may deliver 12 more.Zusana-2A Slovak Zuzana 2 155mm howitzer fires during an exercise in Poland in November 2021.US Army/Pfc. Jacob BradfordThe Zusana-2 is a Slovakian wheeled 155 mm self-propelled howitzer.Germany, Denmark and Norway are buying 16 of the 32-ton weapons — which fire standard NATO 155 mm rounds — for delivery to Ukraine.RCH-155The turret of the RCH 155, armed with a 155 mm gun, is unmanned and controlled from the drive module.Krauss-Maffei WegmannThe RCH-155 is a new German 155 mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer.The 39-ton vehicle, which uses the chassis from the Boxer armored personnel carrier, uses the same cannon as the PzH 2000.Germany has promised 18 RCH-155s for Ukraine, though production will take at least three years.M109An M109A6 Paladin fires a gas-propelled round in Mosul, Iraq.US Army Spc. Gregory GieskeUbiquitous in Western armies since the early 1960s, the M109 is a tank-like armored self-propelled 155 mm howitzer weighing in at 28 tons to 35 tons.The older models could shoot out to about 14 miles, while the newer M109A7 Paladins — the US Army's heavily upgraded model — can reach 14 miles to 19 miles using regular and rocket-assisted projectiles and 25 miles using Excalibur guided shells.Several nations have sent or pledged various M109 models to Ukraine, including Norway, Belgium, and Britain.Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.Read the original article on Business Insider | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
China will never renounce the right to use force over Taiwan, President Xi Jinping has declared at the opening of a major party meeting. China views democratically ruled Taiwan as its own territory, but the island's government has strong objections and believes sovereignty should be claimed by its people.
Speaking at the opening of the ruling Communist Party's 20th congress, the country's biggest political event, Mr Xi said China always "respected, cared for and benefited" Taiwan's people.He added that he was committed to promoting economic and cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. "Resolving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own business, and it's up to the Chinese people to decide," Mr Xi said.
"We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and best efforts, but we will never promise to give up the use of force, and reserve the option to take all necessary measures."To a long round of applause, he concluded: "The historical wheels of national reunification and national rejuvenation are rolling forward, and the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved." More on China What we learned about COVID, Taiwan and whether Xi Jinping is in the mood to step down China's 20th Party Congress is set to make history and President Xi could be 'ruler for life' - here's why Ukraine war dominates the West's foreign policy agenda - but China remains 'biggest long-term' security threat | Adam Boulton During Mr Xi's speech, which mentioned "safety" and "security" 73 times, he explained that China will also accelerate the building of a world-class military and strengthen its ability to build a strategic deterrent.Beijing has offered Taiwan a "one country, two systems" model of autonomy - the same formula it uses for Hong Kong -but all mainstream Taiwanese political parties have rejected that proposal. 'Meeting on the battlefield is not an option'Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have risen since August after China staged military drills near Taiwan following a visit to the island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Her trip infuriated the Chinese government, which views visits to Taiwan by foreign officials as recognising its sovereignty.Since then, military activities have continued near Taiwan but at a reduced pace.In retaliation to Mr Xi's comments, Taiwan's presidential office said it would not back down on its sovereignty or compromise on freedom and democracy. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player War with China 'not an option' Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and in the region is the common responsibility of both sides, and meeting on the battlefield is not an option, Taiwan's presidential office said.Read more:Analysis: This isn't a 'normal' party congressHow much disruption are China's military drills causing?Why is Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan so controversial?It also reiterated its continued stance that the island's people clearly oppose Beijing's idea of "one country, two systems" management.At the end of the Communist Party's week-long congress, Mr Xi, 69, is widely expected to win a third leadership term, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. The event will be attended by around 2,300 delegates from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), including political leaders of all ranks as well as delegates from the private sector, doctors, farmers, "model workers", and even China's first female astronaut. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Liz Truss has said she is considering relocating the British embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in a controversial move that would break with decades of UK foreign policy in order to follow in the footsteps of Donald Trump.In a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York, the prime minister told Israel’s caretaker leader, Yair Lapid about a “review of the current location” of the building, Downing Street said in a statement.The status of Jerusalem, which Israelis and Palestinians claim as their capital, is one of the most sensitive issues in the long-running conflict.East Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza Strip, has been considered occupied Palestinian territory under international law since the six-day war in 1967.Like the vast majority of the international community, the UK’s position until this point has been that the divided city should host consulates, rather than embassies, until a final peace agreement is reached.Trump’s 2018 fulfillment of an election campaign promise to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital prompted international condemnation, and led to protests and clashes in which Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians. The then UK prime minister Theresa May criticised the move at the time.On Thursday, the Israeli prime minister tweeted his thanks to Truss for what he described as “positively considering” the move. “We will continue to strengthen the partnership between the countries,” he said.מודה לידידתי הטובה, ראשת ממשלת בריטניה ליז טראס, שהודיעה כי היא שוקלת בחיוב את העברת שגרירות בריטניה לירושלים בירת ישראל- אנחנו נמשיך לחזק את השותפות בין המדינות 🇮🇱🇬🇧צילום: אבי אוחיון, לע״מ pic.twitter.com/0DZB0TGMsl— יאיר לפיד - Yair Lapid (@yairlapid) September 22, 2022
Truss appears to have first publicly floated the idea of relocating the embassy in a letter to the Conservative Friends of Israel parliamentary group during the Tory leadership campaign over the summer.She wrote: “I understand the importance and sensitivity of the location of the British embassy in Israel. I’ve had many conversations with my good friend ... Lapid on this topic. Acknowledging that, I will review a move to ensure we are operating on the strongest footing within Israel.”At a hustings with CFI, she vowed that “under my leadership, Israel will have no stauncher friend in the world. That’s what I’ve done as foreign secretary and trade secretary. I don’t just talk the talk – I walk the walk.”Pressed in the House of Commons on 6 September by backbench Tory MP Michael Fabricant to follow the US and move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the Foreign Office minister Amanda Milling said: “The British embassy to Israel is in Tel Aviv. I am aware of the possibility of a review, but will not speculate further on this point.”Her remarks suggest the review is only just under way, but advocates of the move inside the Conservative party claim the proposal will prove less controversial than even a few years ago due to the Trump administration setting a precedent, and the thaw in relations between Israel and some Arab countries following the Abraham accords.Downing Street has been contacted to explain how long the review will take.Other than the US, only three states have embassies to Israel in Jerusalem – Kosovo, Honduras and Guatemala – which all moved from Tel Aviv after the US relocation. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A big question for the U.S. intelligence community. Has China learned lessons from Russia's debacle in Ukraine? Has China learned from Russia's experience in order to improve its own intelligence game in anticipation of a future military move on Taiwan? Certainly, the war in Ukraine has been an abject failure for Russian intelligence. The foreign policy community once considered the CIA’s call in 2002 that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction as one of the most significant intelligence failures in modern history. Russia's intelligence community took this failure and surpassed it in leaps and bounds. Chock full of hubris, corruption, and incompetence, the domestic FSB service, in particular, committed the cardinal sin in the intelligence world: reinforcing what Russian President Vladimir Putin always wanted, which was to invade Ukraine on a cost-free basis. One wonders how the FSB, GRU military intelligence and SVR foreign intelligence chiefs have kept their jobs. China has more to learn. After all, even after the invasion began and Ukraine showed great resilience, Russian intelligence has continued to perform poorly. Western intelligence services have gone on the offensive, expelling over 400 Russian officials serving in their countries. This campaign clearly damaged the SVR and GRU overseas presence, severely degrading their ability to recruit and handle agents and conduct active measures campaigns in the West. No, Russian intelligence is not totally defeated. But, their reputation is in tatters; they must no longer be considered a first-rate intelligence service. There was always a perception that Russian intelligence was not only competent, but some thought even "10 feet tall." No longer. So, as China eyes Taiwan, Beijing must consider three fundamental missteps on the part of its Russian intelligence friends. 1) Operational Preparation of the Environment. The FSB leadership thought they had Ukraine wired for a quick and decisive move on Kyiv. Yet Russian intelligence was wrong on nearly every facet of its operational preparation of the environment. Russian agents in Ukraine did not perform — if they even existed at all. The money allocated to these agents seems to have disappeared, perhaps stolen by FSB members themselves. So also were Moscow's assumptions of Ukrainian compliance wildly off. One would think that China takes notice of this Russian intelligence debacle. Is Beijing ensuring its agents in Taiwan are fully vetted and reliable? Have they rooted out corruption within the intelligence services? Operational preparation of the environment is key to any successful military operation. 2) Anticipated Foreign Reaction. After decades of appeasement by the West, Putin and his intelligence community fell into a trap of conventional thinking. They looked at Western reactions to the invasion of Crimea and other outrages and noted little pushback. Why would Putin think 2022 would be any different than 2014? Looking at China and Taiwan, one wonders if our current policy of strategic ambiguity is enough to deter Beijing. Are we forceful enough in our messaging to Beijing that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s aid if attacked? China certainly watches for all signs regarding the degree of U.S. resolve. 3) Speaking Truth to Power What if things go wrong? There is no history of free speech among Putin’s national security team. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to be the only Russian national security figure willing to tell Putin that the war in Ukraine is a mess. Previously, a note of dissent could cause someone to "fall out of their apartment window." Strategists in Beijing must ponder whether they have a system in place where Chinese intelligence has the ability and courage to speak truth to power. I imagine that the jury is out on this, as China is an autocratic system. Top line: we must be cognizant that China is almost certainly conducting a dynamic after-action review of Russian intelligence failures in Ukraine. Beijing may not make similar mistakes regarding an invasion of Taiwan. The U.S. must get our assessments right on Chinese intelligence capabilities and the degree to which Beijing learned from Russia’s debacle. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER'S CONFRONTING CHINA SERIES Marc Polymeropoulos is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. A former CIA senior operations officer, he retired in 2019 after a 26-year career serving in the Near East and South Asia. His book Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA was published in June 2021 by HarperCollins. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Former Deputy National Security Advisor Victoria Coates says President Joe Biden has caused "generational hits to our influence and reputation" in the world through a series of policy blunders ranging from OPEC to Afghanistan.
Coates told Just the News that Biden believed his 50 years of experience and his climate change agenda would transform the world, but instead he has allowed foreign crises to overwhelm his administration and usurp its political capital.
"They keep getting mugged by reality," she said in an interview with the John Solomon Reports podcast. "And, you know, they came in with a very rigid set of ideas about how they were going to govern, and some of which I think came out of the very experience you described: The adults are back in charge. America's back. We know how to do this, leave it to us."
Coates said that the arc of the Biden foreign policy came crashing down with the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan and worsened when Russia felt emboldened to invade Ukraine. Last week's decision by OPEC to drastically cut oil production was a further rebuke, she said.
"We, I think, have taken generational hits to our influence and reputation," she said. "You know, Afghanistan was such a catastrophe, I think, we still don't fully comprehend what that's going to mean for us."
Coates said Biden expected the Russian war to end quickly and now doesn't have an exit strategy, as Ukraine has performed exceedingly well.
"I think part of the problem is the Biden administration never thought for a moment that this would be anything but a three-day war, with the overthrow of Kyiv, the installation of a new government, Zelensky in exile," she said. "Now we're almost eight months in, and, you know, that that's not the case.
"They've been real flat-footed in taking advantage of what is enormous weakness in one of our great geopolitical competitors," she said. "And all I hear out of the president is, 'We'll do as much as it takes as long as it takes.' Like, okay, well, what is it? And, you know, if you don't tell me what it is, then ... you've just said a bunch of words. And, you know, that's what what troubles me. I think it troubles the Congress deeply." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Photo: World leaders discuss news from Poland at G20.President Biden discussing the missile strike on Poland with world leaders on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. on Wednesday. Steffen Hebestreit / EPA via ShutterstockPoland blast most likely wasn't deliberate attack, NATO Secretary General saysJean-Nicholas Fievet and Laura SaraviaTuesday's explosion in Poland was most likely not the result of a deliberate attack and there is no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military operations against NATO, the alliance's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.Preliminary analysis indicated that the blast, which killed two Polish citizens near the border with Ukraine, was caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired in defense against Russian cruise missile attacks, Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday. Stoltenberg said he wanted to "be clear" that "this is not Ukraine's fault.""Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine," he said.NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels on Wednesday. Olivier Matthys / APPoland: Blast likely caused by Ukrainian air defense missile, ‘no indication’ of intentional attackChantal Da Silva and Segilola ArisekolaPoland's president said Wednesday there was "no indication" the deadly blast was an "intentional attack" on his country and said it was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile."There is no indication that this could be qualified as an attack against Poland," Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a news conference Wednesday."Unfortunately, it is highly probable that one of the missiles fired by the Ukrainian missile defense unfortunately fell on our territory," he said."Materials collected by our services, as well as provided by allies, indicate that the explosion occurred as a result of the shooting down and destruction of a Russian missile."Early indications suggest Poland blast involved Ukrainian air defense, officials tell NBC NewsPreliminary indications suggest that a Ukrainian air defense system was involved in Tuesday's deadly blast in Poland, a senior U.S. official and a European government official told NBC News. Both sources said the investigation was ongoing and that was not yet certain.Belgium's defense minister said early Wednesday that the blast appears to be the result of “Ukrainian air defense.” Western officials have stressed that no matter who fired the missile, Russia's war was ultimately responsible for the incident. "One thing is clear: This would not have happened without Russia’s horrific missile attacks against Ukraine," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.What are NATO Articles 4 and 5?The explosion in NATO member Poland’s territory has raised concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine spreading to neighboring countries. The transatlantic military alliance was meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. Article 4 of the NATO treaty states that all NATO members “will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”The blast has prompted speculation about NATO’s Article 5, which states that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all."Olivier Matthys / APIt also states that parties "agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” Article 5 is not automatically invoked. Member countries must come together to evaluate a situation and determine whether it should be triggered. It was not triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February because Ukraine is not a part of NATO. Article 5 has been activated once before, on behalf of the United States in response to the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Poland blast appears to be result of 'Ukrainian air defense,' Belgian defense minister says Chantal Da Silva and Jean-Nicholas FievetThe deadly blast in Przewodów appears to be the result of "Ukrainian air defense," Belgium's defense minister said early Wednesday. "Based on current information, the strikes in Poland seem to be a result of Ukrainian air defense," Ludivine Dedonder said in a tweet."Pieces of Russian missiles and a Ukrainian interception missile are said to have landed in Poland," the defense minister said. Dedonder said investigations were underway to confirm the cause of the blast. NBC News has not verified the details and Poland has not said who might have fired the missile, only that it was "Russian-made." President Joe Biden said earlier it was "unlikely" the missile was fired from Russia.Photo shared by Polish police appears to show impact of blast A photo shared online by Polish police appears to show the impact of the deadly explosion in the village of Przewodów. Investigators can be seen trawling through what appears to be a crater caused by the explosion in a photo posted to Twitter by Polska Policja. “Police have been securing the area since the beginning of the event,” authorities said in the post. Polska PolicjaBiden speaks with Polish President Andrzej Duda from BaliPresident Biden talks on the phone with Polish President Andrzej Duda early Wednesday as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken listen.Adam Schultz / The White House via APBiden counters Russia at G-20 by touting alliances mocked by TrumpBALI, Indonesia — Surrounded by America’s closest allies, President Joe Biden plotted a response to reports that a Russian-made missile had hit Poland near the border with Ukraine — immediately causing alarm about possible escalation in the region.Biden, speaking Wednesday local time, emerged to vow that the U.S. and its allies would “collectively determine our next steps and proceed.”Minutes later and half a world away, former President Donald Trump announced he’s running again, while implying that some of the countries Biden wants to help deter Russia aren’t so much allies as thieves.“I used to fight like cats and dogs with the leaders of other countries because they were stealing from us,” Trump said.The crisis in Poland spawned a split-screen moment highlighting two starkly different approaches to advancing America’s basic foreign policy interests — between two men who could be heading for a rematch in 2024.Click here to read the full article.Polish police guard a checkpoint in PrzewodowPolice officers at a checkpoint near the scene of a blast in Przewodow, Poland on Wednesday.Evgeniy Maloletka / APUkrainian official urges Europe to 'close the sky'It is "time for Europe to close the sky" over Ukraine after the deadly blast in Poland, Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Wednesday."Only Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine and massive missile strikes. Only Russia is behind the rapidly growing risks for the border countries," he said on Twitter. "No need to look for excuses and postpone key decisions. Time for Europe to "close the sky over 🇺🇦". For your own safety too..."‘Most members’ of G-20 strongly condemn war in UkraineBALI, Indonesia — President Joe Biden didn’t get everything he wanted in the Group of 20’s joint statement at the close of its summit meeting in Indonesia on Wednesday. But what he got might be just enough to irritate his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.The Biden administration had been hoping the summit, which brought together the world’s 20 largest economies, would produce a communiqué that strongly condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, with as many nations as possible signing on.The document released at the end of the conference is carefully worded, with the feel of a hard-fought compromise. The section on Ukraine says that “most members” strongly condemned the war and the “immense human suffering” it has caused, while noting that “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”There is no breakdown provided of which members fell into which group. But G-20 members like China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, which have stronger relationships with Moscow, have largely refrained from publicly criticizing Russia over its actions and tried to appear neutral in the conflict. Alex Brandon / AFP - Getty ImagesThe language also does not explicitly fault Russia, another G-20 member. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who attended the summit in place of Putin, had accused Western countries on Tuesday of trying to “politicize” the joint statement.In another passage that seems at least partly aimed at Putin, the statement says “the use or threat of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.” The Russian president has denied that he intends to use nuclear weapons to reverse battlefield losses, but he raised alarms in September when he warned that he was prepared to use “all means available to protect Russia.”Communiqués tend to have a short shelf life, of interest mainly to the diplomats who negotiate and write them. Still, when Putin sees the document it is hard to imagine he’ll be pleased. As it was being crafted, one Biden administration official told reporters: “I think what you will see is that most countries of the G-20 will be clear that Russia’s war of aggression is being condemned in the strongest possible terms.”Blinken speaks with Ukrainian counterpart after Poland blastUkraine's foreign minister said he spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone call Tuesday and called for a "stiff and principled" response to the blast that killed two people in Poland. Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet he had a "detailed call" with Blinken on "Russian missile terror," during which he stressed the importance of a rigid response to the deadly explosion Tuesday.Blinken acknowledged in a tweet that he had discussed the blast with Kuleba, but he did not expand on the details of the conversation. "We are committed to be with Ukraine for as long as it takes," he said.Kuleba has accused Russia of peddling a “conspiracy theory” by suggesting that the strike in Poland was caused by an errant Ukrainian air defense missile. “No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages,” he said earlier on Twitter.Here's what Poland's neighbors saidPoland's neighboring NATO and European Union allies responded with a mixture of patient concern and anger to the explosion Tuesday.Lithuania's defense minister, Artis Pabriks, said in a tweet: "[The] criminal Russian regime fired missiles which target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland."Others, however, were more reserved. The Czech prime minister, Petr Fiala, said that if it was confirmed to be a Russian attack, "this will be a further escalation by Russia."Alar Karis, the president of Estonia, said he was in contact with the Polish president and would consult on "further activities."China urges all parties to ‘stay calm’Willy Kurniawan / AFP - Getty ImagesAll parties should “stay calm and exercise restraint, and avoid escalation of the situation,” China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, told a regular news briefing on Wednesday after the blast in Poland.China, which has a strategic partnership with Russia, has refrained from condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine or calling it a war. It has tried to position itself as neutral in the conflict, calling for peace negotiations and expressing opposition to the use of nuclear weapons.CIA director met with Zelenskyy after warning Russia on nuclear weaponsCIA Director William Burns met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials in Kyiv on Tuesday, a U.S. official said.The visit came a day after Burns met his Russian counterpart in Turkey. The official said Burns discussed a warning he delivered to the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service not to use nuclear weapons. The CIA director also sought to reinforce the U.S. commitment to provide support to Ukraine in its fight against Russian forces, the official said. Burns' safety was not in jeopardy during the visit, despite the wave of Russian missile strikes on the country, the official said.Biden heads home as G-20 summit concludesPresident Joe Biden is on his way back to Washington after attending a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia that was shadowed by the deadly missile strike in Poland and international divisions over Russia’s war on Ukraine. The G-20 is made up of the world’s largest economies, including China, Russia, the United States and the European Union. The summit concluded with a joint communiqué that reflected members’ divergent approaches to Russia’s aggression, with “most” of them strongly condemning the war but not all.Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty ImagesBiden left the island of Bali on Air Force One at 2:25 p.m. local time (1:25 a.m. ET), and is expected to arrive at Joint Base Andrews late Wednesday. Indonesia was the president’s last stop on a weeklong trip that also included visits to Egypt for the United Nations climate change conference and Cambodia for a summit of Southeast Asian nations. During the G-20 summit, Biden also held his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since taking office.Here's what Ukraine said about the incidentUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly accused Russia of firing the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland on Tuesday night, describing it as an attack on Europe's collective security.Omar Marques / Getty Images"How many times has Ukraine said that the terrorist state will not limit itself to our country? Poland, the Baltic states... It's only a matter of time before Russian terror goes further," he said in his nightly address Tuesday.Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia was peddling a "conspiracy theory" by suggesting that the strike was caused by an errant Ukrainian air defense missile. "No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages," he said on Twitter.Here's what Russia said about the incidentRussia strongly denied being responsible for the blast that killed two people Tuesday in rural eastern Poland."Polish mass media and officials commit deliberate provocation to escalate situation with their statement on alleged impact of ‘Russian’ rockets at Przewodów," the Russian Ministry of Defense said on its Telegram channel Tuesday.Images of the wreckage in the aftermath of the strike "have no relation to Russian firepower," the ministry said.Biden says it's ‘unlikely’ missile was launched from inside Russia U.S. President Joe Biden said the missile that killed two people in Poland near the Ukraine border likely was not fired from within Russia, but that it is under investigation.“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden said after a meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia, when he was asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”Biden spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda, offered full U.S. support for the investigation, and "reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO," of which Poland is a member, the White House said.Poland's security chiefs to meet after explosion near Ukraine borderPolish political and security leaders will meet again Wednesday to discuss the NATO member country's response to the explosion that killed two people in a rural village near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday.The country's National Security Council will meet at noon local time (6 a.m ET), after first meeting on Tuesday night.Michal Dyjuk / APBefore that Poland will also take part in the NATO meeting Wednesday morning, and President Andrzej Duda will meet Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and other government figures.Poland's National Security Office was already "analyzing the arrangements made so far with commanders, service chiefs and allies," Jacek Siewiera, head of the National Security Bureau, said in a tweet early Wednesday.NATO to meet in Brussels after deadly Poland blastNATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will chair a meeting of the transatlantic military alliance on Wednesday in Brussels, Belgium, to address the deadly explosion in Poland.Stoltenberg will brief the media after the meeting, in a news conference scheduled for 12.30 p.m. local time (6.30 a.m. ET)Under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, a member state can call for the alliance to come together to consult in the event of a security threat. All NATO decisions are taken as a consensus.NATO, G-7 leaders offer full support to Poland The leaders of NATO and the Group of Seven nations offered their full support for Poland following the deadly explosion near the NATO member's border with Ukraine.The NATO and G-7 leaders said in a joint statement after an emergency meeting in Indonesia that they will remain in touch to determine "appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds.""We discussed the explosion that took place in the eastern part of Poland near the border with Ukraine," the statement said. "We offer our full support for and assistance with Poland’s ongoing investigation. Firdia Lisnawati / AFP - Getty ImagesPoland says two killed by Russian-made missile Two people in southeast Poland were killed by what Poland’s foreign ministry said was a Russian-made missile Tuesday afternoon.The missile fell in the community of Przewodów, which is near the Poland-Ukraine border, around 3:40 p.m., Poland’s foreign ministry said.“We have no evidence as of yet who fired that missile,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said, but added the projectile was Russian-made and an investigation was ongoing. Duda said “what happened was an isolated incident. There is no indication that more will take place.”It came after Russia launched a wave of airstrikes on cities across Ukraine on Tuesday, hitting civilian infrastructure and causing widespread blackouts. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
A leaked memo from a US four-star general saying his “gut” told him the US would be at war with China in 2025 has prompted warnings about the danger of “undisciplined” predictions of a Taiwan strait conflict.
The memo, by the head of the US Air Mobility Command (AMC), Gen Mike Minihan, was the latest prediction of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, which have ranged from 2022 to 2049. It has triggered a debate about US readiness, accusations of warmongering, and concerns about desensitising people to the real risk of invasion.
China’s government claims Taiwan as a province and its authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, is set on what he terms ”reunification”, by force if necessary. It is a prospect Taiwan’s government and people vehemently reject. Around this impasse, tensions are escalating. Beijing’s military is growing bigger and is increasing its coercive targeting and harassment of Taiwan.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan wrote. “Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Minihan’s jingoistic nine-point plan set out his “preparation for the next fight”. Dated 1 February but leaked on social media days before, it ordered increased training and integration of the AMC and joint forces, to “deter, and if required, defeat China”.
Timelines within the decade are usually about China’s capability. The director general of Taiwan’s national security bureau and its defence minister have said China would reach full invasion capability by, respectively, 2023 and 2025. Later dates are often based on China’s intention, picking years with symbolic significance for the Chinese Communist party (CCP).
But it is not always clear. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said last year that China was determined to annex Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” but did not give a date.
Minihan’s prediction was quickly linked to statements in 2021 by the then head of the US Indo-Pacific command, Adm Philip Davidson, to a Senate committee hearing. In what is now referred to as “the Davidson window”, the admiral said he believed the Chinese threat to Taiwan would “manifest” in the next six years, by 2027.
This week Davidson repeated his comments, saying his “conflict scenario” included smaller assaults on outlying islands. Davidson, who is in Taiwan meeting the president and other defence figures, declined an interview request.
Minihan’s memo was written off by many analysts as offering no evidence beyond his “gut” and crude assessments that 2024 elections in the US and Taiwan were good timing for an invasion.
“The most charitable interpretation of Minihan’s comments was that he was aiming them at his own organisation to spark change,” said Blake Herzinger, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute thinktank. “The part that doesn’t make sense is releasing a memo with this sort of inflammatory language, unclassified, basically guaranteeing it would leak.
“I cannot imagine it was something the administration was happy to see.”
Michael O’Hanlon, the director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution research group, told the broadcaster Voice of America the memo was “very unwise, and potentially dangerous because of the potential [for creating] a self-fulfilling prophecy”.
Some analysts accused the military figures of putting forward short timelines to lobby for more funding. A 2022-23 window offered by the US chief of naval operations, Adm Michael Gilday, in October, for instance, also urged the government not to “skimp” on funding US military readiness.
James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy magazine, said such predictions of war in the next few years “are generated largely by a military-security establishment that sees Beijing as an inevitable next opponent and a useful tool for its own budgetary ambitions”.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board was among those defending the memo, saying it offered an important point outside its rhetoric: that the US is not ready for conflict and people should be more worried about it.
“This is a typical thinking in the US military, or in all military organisations, that the preparation of wars with potential challengers or opponents is a must,” said Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at the National Chengchi University in Taipei.
But the writing – and leaking – of the memo has raised questions about how the current thinking of senior US military figures was diverging from that of US policymakers, who are balancing a challenging but nonadversarial diplomatic relationship with China.
The Pentagon has distanced itself from Minihan’s memo, saying it was not representative of the department’s view.
The US is a longstanding integral party to cross-strait tensions as a global military power and as a legally bound supporter of Taiwan’s defensive capability. Its cross-strait policy remains underpinned by a doctrine of strategic ambiguity – a refusal to confirm whether or not it would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of hostilities. Minihan’s memo raised the suggestion that some in the US military were acting on an unambiguous assumption – or understanding – that it would.
Ryan Hass, a Brookings Institute scholar on China and Asia, said inconsistent predictions and “undisciplined utterances” from senior figures risked squandering US credibility.
“What US leaders say matters,” he said, noting that US warnings about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had been borne out. “On the other hand, uniformed military leaders make predictions based on their ‘gut instincts’ about when the PRC might invade Taiwan, it erodes confidence in America’s grasp of the situation.”
The impact of comments such as those of Minihan, Davidson and Gilday goes beyond US credibility. Such pronouncements often draw hostile reaction from Beijing, and cause confusion and fear among the public in China and Taiwan.
Chinese officials responded to Minihan’s memo by warning the US against inflaming tensions.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the CCP’s military sent more than 60 warplanes and ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, but it was not clear whether this larger than usual incursion was in retaliation to Minihan or another perceived provocation.
Huang did not think Minihan’s memo inflamed tensions. “This is just a judgment from a very senior USAF general in charge of air mobility,” he said. “I respect Minihan’s assessment and prediction about 2025, but I also think those are not in the mainstream thinking of the Biden administration.”
In Taiwan, the memo received a modest level of coverage, featuring in news bulletins and political talkshows, but with far less alarmism than it got overseas.
Brian Hioe, a Taiwanese journalist and editor, questioned whether alarmist predictions from western figures could become a “boy crying wolf” situation and “lead to warnings about an invasion being looked at less seriously”.
Taiwan’s government is urgently working to fix entrenched issues with its own military and foster urgency in a population that has lived with the China threat for decades. Conscription for young men was recently increased to a full year of training and service, and the voluntary reserve service is being expanded to include women.
During a busy weekday lunchtime in Taipei, the Guardian struggled to find many people who had heard of the leaked memo. A couple in their 60s, who ran a produce stall at an inner-city market, waved it away as “politics”.
“This rumour [of invasion] has always been here, it’s always the same,” said Mrs Ye. Her husband, Mr Wang, shouted his agreement from the back of the stall. Taiwan’s political parties “always say China will attack us”, he said. “I’ll fight them, I am not afraid.”
A 26-year-old IT worker, David Guo, said he was sick of the “bullshit” posturing and accused the US of “playing chess” for power in Asia.
Joy Jian, a 67-year-old insurance worker, brushed it off. “I don’t care about this news any more,” he said. “If it will happen, it will happen.”
Additional reporting by Chi Hui Lin | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Iranian hardliners are urging their government to exact revenge on the UK and deliver a blow to its spying network by revealing the true names of the British intelligence agents who supposedly worked with Alireza Akbari, the British-Iranian dual national who was executed on Saturday for allegedly spying for the UK.The call – made by Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of the Kayan, the newspaper closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – shows hardliners are intent on a confrontation with Britain over the issue.Akbari’s devastated family deny he was a spy and insist he is the victim of an internal power struggle within the regime. The former British ambassador to Tehran, Richard Dalton, has suggested Akbari’s execution, condemned by world leaders as barbaric, may be a warning to the UK not to go ahead with plans to proscribe the IRGC.James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is travelling to Washington this week, where he will seek to coordinate a response to Akbari’s execution and the wider security threat posed by Iran. So far he has recalled the UK ambassador to Tehran for consultations and sanctioned the Iranian prosecutor general.Shariatmadari wrote: “Now it is our turn to take revenge, and it is expected that the Ministry of Information will provide some information related to the leads, commanders, and agents of the British and Mossad intelligence services who were involved in technical interrogations and publish the expert knowledge obtained.”This move, if undertaken quickly, he said, “would be a terrible blow to the body of the British spy system and its foreign intelligence and espionage department, MI6”.Shariatmadari added: “There are also questions about how this spy infiltrated the sensitive and strategic centres of the system, which should not be simply ignored.”With Iran gripped by gas shortages and power cuts in freezing temperatures, there were also calls for a deepening of its security and energy relationships with Russia.The US has already proscribed the IRGC, and some US Republicans are becoming exasperated with the failure of European nations to follow suit. Claudia Tenney, a member of the US Congress foreign affairs committee, tweeted on Saturday: “Iran’s execution of British-Iranian dual national Alireza Akbari is yet another act of barbarism from this brutal regime. Enough empty statements of condemnation from European capitals. The time is now for action – full sanctions, especially on the IRGC & all senior regime officials.”The policy difficulty for Europeans is that the IRGC is already sanctioned and evidential thresholds have to be met before the IRGC can be proscribed as a terrorist organisation.But the calls for a broader strategic reappraisal of the west’s approach to Iran are growing after the continued daily repression of protests and the impasse in nuclear talks. More than 60 French senators have officially requested that the EU close Iranian banks in Europe and ban the passage of Iran Air planes from European skies, as well as abandon the nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) completely.At the same time, 100 MEPs have asked for the IRGC to be designated a terrorist entity, in a call due to be debated by the European parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday. Antagonism towards Iran has also grown due to the Iranian supply of drones to Russia that have been used in Ukraine.A senior Iranian parliamentarian said on Sunday that the alliance with Russia would be deepening, with the supply of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets early in the next Iranian year, which starts in March. Shahriar Heydari, a member of the Islamic Republic’s parliamentary commission for national security and foreign policy, did not specify the number of aircraft ordered.Opinion appears more divided in European capitals about the wisdom of formally ending the already stalled talks on the nuclear deal, with some ministers concerned that a dangerous vacuum would be filled by Iranian hardliners that would then speed up its uranium enrichment programme or pull out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.The outgoing chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Aviv Kochavi, said on Sunday that economic sanctions and a military option involving more than Israel might yet convince Tehran to suspend its nuclear military programme, as it did in 2003.“The best strategy now would be to further intensify the economic sanctions on Iran, to build up a military option not only of Israel. Then maybe the total of these pressures would bring them to a situation as in 2003, when they decided to suspend the military aspect of the nuclear programme,” he said.“Basically, it would be worth reaching a new agreement that’s better – not reasonable and not good, but better, one that neutralises some of the flaws of the previous agreement.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
U.S. intel fears China may arm Russia for war in Ukraine – report
Western officials reportedly think China may just resupply Russia with arms lost in the war, instead of advanced weapons
Washington is reportedly considering releasing now-classified intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether or not to supply weapons to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the move is being considered following a series of closed-door messages to China not to supply Russia with arms, which ended with a formal warning last week. It was unclear what kind of weapons China may reportedly hand over, but the United States and Europe apparently think Beijing may just resupply what Moscow has lost in the war.
Following the Munich Security Conference that ended this past weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly delivered the warning in an interview with CBS News, urging Chinese leaders not to provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with arms. It also came after a number of closed-door appeals to China coordinated among NATO allies, which reportedly culminated in Blinken’s warning to China’s senior foreign policy official Wang Yi.
According to people familiar with the sit-down, the meeting between the two foreign officials ended with no sign of common ground on key issues. One of the sources described it to WSJ as “tense,” with the recent shooting down of a Chinese surveillance balloon in the U.S. overshadowing the talk.
The UN Security Council will meet on Friday to mark one year since Russia invaded Ukraine, during which Blinken will speak.
China's Foreign Ministry said Thursday that any potential intelligence on arms transfer by China to Russia that the U.S. plans to release is “just speculation and smearing.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Over the past few days, television news bulletins have carried harrowing footage of Afghanistan one year after the Taliban won back the country, as Western nations hurriedly pulled their remaining personnel out of Kabul.Twelve months on, things are as bad as they have ever been. No, worse. Starvation is rife. Girls are denied an education. The pitiless Taliban are rounding up and torturing Afghans who worked for American, British and other Nato forces.What these distressing reports don’t do, of course, is refer to the utter pointlessness of Western involvement in Afghanistan. Britain played its traditional role as America’s junior partner. Some 457 British lives were lost, and up to £40 billion of taxpayers’ money was squandered, in an utterly futile war.Who in authority will admit that this was the biggest foreign policy cock-up of modern times? A few in the Army have partly done so. Former Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Nick Carter did several tours of duty in Afghanistan. He recently admitted ‘there was never any coherent political strategy’ on the part of Western governments.But I can’t recall any British minister responsible for the debacle conceding fault in the slightest degree for the foolishness of our policy, which was nonetheless apparent to many critics over the years, not least in this newspaper. Over the past few days, television news bulletins have carried harrowing footage of Afghanistan one year after the Taliban won back the country Former Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Nick Carter recently admitted ‘there was never any coherent political strategy’ on the part of Western governmentsTony Blair, who is so eager to tell the Government what to do about all manner of things, hasn’t apologised for failing to achieve his original objectives. Back in 2001, when Nato forces invaded Afghanistan, the former PM insisted he would extirpate the heroin trade. The country now produces more of the drug than it did then.We haven’t heard any expression of regret from John Reid, who as Home Secretary in early 2006 — when our forces began to be committed in large numbers to a country that had been a graveyard for the British Empire and the Soviet Union — said that he hoped our troops might soon return ‘without a shot being fired’.Nor has former Prime Minister David Cameron chosen to revise the verdict he rashly offered in December 2013. When British troops were withdrawn in large numbers, he declared: ‘Mission accomplished’.You might think ‘Dave’ would have been more circumspect, since President George W. Bush had used the same phrase in May 2003 immediately after the end of the initial phase of fighting in the Iraq War, whose ramifications nevertheless dogged America for years. But no.The only leading politician I can think of who has gone some way to publicly recognising our stupendous failure in Afghanistan is the current Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace.A few days ago, he told the Mail that he feared parents grieving for their children who died in the conflict would wonder: ‘What was it all for?’ However, although Mr Wallace accepts that ultimately we ‘failed’, in his view we went there ‘for the right reasons’.I suspect that, as a former officer in the Scots Guards, he is more sympathetic to soldiers in combat and their parents, spouses and other relatives than are most former ministers, who only know about fighting wars from behind their Whitehall desks. Tony Blair, who is so eager to tell the Government what to do about all manner of things, hasn’t apologised for failing to achieve his original objectives Ben Wallace told the Mail that he feared parents grieving for their children who died in the conflict would wonder: ‘What was it all for?’What a monumental waste of blood and treasure this has been! It is extraordinary, and reprehensible, that there has been no public inquiry into the colossal misjudgments that were made. No politicians have been held accountable for this catastrophe. We can be certain they are doing their utmost to avoid an inquiry.Our doomed intervention in Afghanistan is history. But a full inquiry might deter future leaders from plunging us into another ruinous war, besides requiring a succession of former ministers and prime ministers to account for their decisions.Yet there is still one unfinished piece of business, a remaining chance for ministers to salvage something good from this mess and restore some vestige of tarnished honour.For nine years before the remaining Western forces chaotically withdrew from Kabul 12 months ago, this newspaper championed the cause of translators and others who had worked for British forces in Afghanistan. After last August, these people were left even more vulnerable to reprisals by the Taliban.Shamefully, and unsurprisingly, ministers and civil servants were slow to act, although some of those who had worked for the British were given visas. Then came the dramatic collapse after President Biden decided to abandon Afghanistan with no consideration for this country’s interests. Therein lies the danger of being a junior partner.Around 15,000 people, 5,000 of them British citizens, were rescued during Operation Pitting, the UK’s evacuation mission. Thousands of Afghans, who could and should have been helped to leave Kabul earlier, were left behind in the melee.Others have since received assistance to come to the safety of Britain. But more than 6,000 Afghans who worked with British Forces, and are therefore regarded as enemies by the Taliban, remain in the country. Their lives are not safe.Two ex-translators have been brutally beaten by the Taliban and another tortured. A former British Council teacher was arrested and assaulted so savagely that he needed three weeks of hospital treatment. Around 15,000 people, 5,000 of them British citizens, were rescued during Operation Pitting, the UK’s evacuation missionThe Government is doing something. It has set up two schemes for Afghans who may qualify for visas. About 400 people a month are said to be fleeing the country and there is talk of new escape routes being opened. The Government hopes that up to 1,000 people could be moved every month.Nonetheless, the process is painfully slow. Thousands of applications under the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP) scheme still have to be reviewed, although extra officials are said to have been drafted in to help with the backlog.But although the Ministry of Defence administers the scheme, the famously ponderous and bureaucratic Home Office does its own security checks, and so is delaying many applications. Look at the mess the Passport Office, part of the Home Office, has been making of providing passports for its own citizens.The best hope is that Ben Wallace will bring further pressure to grant refuge to these unfortunate people before they are tortured, incarcerated or murdered by the Taliban.Almost everything Britain has done in Afghanistan has gone wrong. The heroin trade we were supposed to suppress is flourishing. Medieval-minded zealots are back in charge in Kabul. They control every inch of land over which thousands of British troops fought in the most appalling circumstances, and hundreds lost their lives.How quickly we forget. We have new crises. Neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak seems especially concerned about the fate of Afghans who sided with the British, thereby marking themselves out for punishment, or worse, by the Taliban.Nor do I suppose — though we mustn’t give in — that there will ever be a public inquiry into this senseless war. So much time has elapsed. Both main parties, Tory and Labour, have much of which to be ashamed and don’t want their conduct to be examined in a forensic way.There is one last opportunity to redeem a little honour, though. I’m afraid there is little or nothing we can do for the millions of Afghans who languish under Taliban rule. But we must still help those who once helped us. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Donald Trump took aim at President Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, U.S. foreign policy and undocumented immigrants Saturday as he kicked off his bid for a return to the White House with campaign stops in New Hampshire and South Carolina.Trump, who is attempting to become the first president elected to non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, cast himself as the Republican best positioned to win the nomination and defeat Biden."The 2024 election is our one shot to save our country, and we need a leader who is ready to do that on day one," Trump told an audience at the South Carolina state House. "We need a president who can take on the whole system and a president who can win."In a series of recent polls, Trump has led Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — the clear No. 2 choice of GOP voters at this early stage — by 19 points or more. But there are signs that Trump's support is diminished in parts of the country: A University of New Hampshire survey released this week showed DeSantis leading Trump 42 percent to 30 percent. New Hampshire traditionally holds the country's first primary, following the Iowa caucuses.In South Carolina, Trump was surrounded by Republican officials, including Gov. Henry McMaster, Sen. Lindsey Graham and Rep. Joe Wilson.In the twin speeches Saturday, which largely mirrored each other, Trump painted a bleak picture of America under Biden and vowed to reverse inflation, secure the U.S. border with Mexico and fortify America's position as a global power. "Through weakness and incompetence, Joe Biden has brought us to the brink of World War III," Trump said. "We’re at the brink of World War III, just in case anybody doesn’t know it. As president, I will bring back peace through strength."He called Biden's botched American pullout from Afghanistan in 2021 "the lowest day in the history of our country" and claimed that if he were president, there would be "a peace deal negotiated within 24 hours" to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine.He blamed Biden for border crossings and drug deaths, repeating his 2015 assertion that Mexico is sending "killers," "murderers" and "rapists" to the U.S. "They are sending people that are killers, murderers, they're sending rapists. And they're sending, frankly, terrorists, or terrorists are coming on their own, and we can't allow this to happen," Trump said. And, at a time when conservative activists have been trying to rewrite school curricula, Trump promised he would end federal funding for schools that don't comport with his views on education and allow parents to directly elect public school principals.At both stops, Trump singled out Hunter Biden, the president's son, for derision and appeared to blame the elder Biden for his adult child's problems."At what point does the father get angry — like this kid is not working out well for me?" Trump asked rhetorically in New Hampshire. The campaign stops Saturday follow a lull since Trump launched his campaign at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida in November. He said that he will make sweeping changes to U.S. immigration, economic and energy policy if he is returned to the White House."We'll turn it around and we'll turn it around fast," he said.Jonathan AllenJonathan Allen is a senior national politics reporter for NBC News, based in Washington. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Apartment block reduced to rubble by a Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia. Photograph: ReutersApartment block reduced to rubble by a Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia. Photograph: ReutersShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featureLive feedRussia launches multiple strikes on city of ZaporizhzhiaIsobel KoshiwRussia hit the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia with seven rockets, flattening an apartment building on early on Thursday morning. The city’s authorities told Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne at least two have died and at least another five are trapped under the rubble. Rescue workers at the scene said they saved one three-year-old girl.Zaporizhzhia’s branch of Suspline reported more explosions in the city at mid-morning Kyiv time.Three more loud explosions were just heard in #Zaporizhzhia (at 10.35 local time). Smoke is rising from new locations in the centre of the city.— Paul Adams (@BBCPaulAdams) October 6, 2022
Oleksandr Starukh, Ukraine’s governor of Zaporizhzhia, said on Telegram: “Attention. Another enemy missile attack. Stay in shelters”.Russia launched two rockets at the central Ukrainian city of Khmelnytsky, but both reportedly missed their targets.Elsewhere, Russia used what the Ukrainian authorities say are Iranian-supplied Kamikadze drones to target the cities of Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Ukraine’s military say they managed to shoot down 18 additional drones before they reached Odesa and Mykolaiv.As the Guardian’s Peter Beaumont reported, the Iranian drones are able to remain airborne for several hours and circle over potential targets, the drones are designed to be flown into enemy troops, armour or buildings, exploding on impact – explaining their description as kamikaze drones.The city of Zaporizhzhia is the administrative centre of the Zaporizhzhia region which Russia claims to have annexed.Key events13m agoRussia launches multiple strikes on city of Zaporizhzhia26m agoZaporizhzhia residents warned of further missiles1h agoRescue workers on scene of deadly residential rocket strike in Zaporizhzhia2h agoSummary so far2h agoTwo killed in Zaporizhzhia missile attack, governor says3h agoRussia wants secret UN vote on move to condemn 'annexations'3h agoEuropean leaders to meet in face of Russia’s war3h agoRussian troops leave behind mass burial sites, evidence of torture4h agoRussian troops retreat from Ukraine's east and south4h agoUN nuclear chief heads to Kyiv4h agoPutin appears to admit severe losses, vows to 'stabilise' annexed regionsShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featureUkraine’s governor of Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Starukh, has issued an update on the strikes in Zaporizhzhia this morning, revising the death toll down to one for now. He writes:So far it is known about the death of one woman. The death of another person has not been confirmed. Thanks to the doctors, her life was saved. Seven people were injured of varying degrees of severity, they were treated, including one three-year-old child. The rescue operation is still ongoing. The number of victims may vary. The number of victims could have been much higher, but thanks to the timely and professional actions of the Zaporizhzhia state emergency service, 21 victims were already saved.Russia launches multiple strikes on city of ZaporizhzhiaIsobel KoshiwRussia hit the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia with seven rockets, flattening an apartment building on early on Thursday morning. The city’s authorities told Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne at least two have died and at least another five are trapped under the rubble. Rescue workers at the scene said they saved one three-year-old girl.Zaporizhzhia’s branch of Suspline reported more explosions in the city at mid-morning Kyiv time.Three more loud explosions were just heard in #Zaporizhzhia (at 10.35 local time). Smoke is rising from new locations in the centre of the city.— Paul Adams (@BBCPaulAdams) October 6, 2022
Oleksandr Starukh, Ukraine’s governor of Zaporizhzhia, said on Telegram: “Attention. Another enemy missile attack. Stay in shelters”.Russia launched two rockets at the central Ukrainian city of Khmelnytsky, but both reportedly missed their targets.Elsewhere, Russia used what the Ukrainian authorities say are Iranian-supplied Kamikadze drones to target the cities of Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Ukraine’s military say they managed to shoot down 18 additional drones before they reached Odesa and Mykolaiv.As the Guardian’s Peter Beaumont reported, the Iranian drones are able to remain airborne for several hours and circle over potential targets, the drones are designed to be flown into enemy troops, armour or buildings, exploding on impact – explaining their description as kamikaze drones.The city of Zaporizhzhia is the administrative centre of the Zaporizhzhia region which Russia claims to have annexed.Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, exiled leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus, has commented on today’s strikes on Zaporizhzhia, saying:The Russian attack on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia is another shameful act of terror against the population of Ukraine. Thousands of innocent adults & children have paid with their lives for Putin and Lukashenko’s war. They lose on the battlefield & take revenge on civilians.The Russian attack on residential buildings in #Zaporizhzhia is another shameful act of terror against the population of 🇺🇦. Thousands of innocent adults & children have paid with their lives for Putin & Lukashenka's war. They lose on the battlefield & take revenge on civilians. pic.twitter.com/GHdm5oBIYr— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) October 6, 2022
Zaporizhzhia residents warned of further missilesOleksandr Starukh, Ukraine’s governor of Zaporizhzhia, has alerted people to an another attack on Telegram, posting “Attention. Another enemy missile attack. Stay in shelters”.If you need a reminder, this animated map posted by Ukraine’s minister of defence Oleksii Reznikov yesterday shows the territory that the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed to recapture during their counteroffensive over the last month.#UAarmy’s autumn offensive, day by day. While the "russian parliament" is intoxicated from the futile attempts at annexation, our soldiers continue moving forward.This is the best answer to any and all "referenda", "decrees", "treaties" and pathetic speeches. pic.twitter.com/qLCBu0Vdns— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) October 5, 2022
The BBC’s Paul Adams reports hearing three more loud explosions in Zaporizhzhia in the last few minutes.Three more loud explosions were just heard in #Zaporizhzhia (at 10.35 local time). Smoke is rising from new locations in the centre of the city.— Paul Adams (@BBCPaulAdams) October 6, 2022
Kirill Stremousov, one of the Russian-imposed leaders in the occupied region of Kherson which the Russian Federation has claimed to annex, has been very vocal on Telegram in the last couple of days, attempting to counter any narrative that Ukrainian forces are making any progress in the south. This morning he has, without presenting evidence, again asserted that the defences in Kherson are holding. He said:The situation in the Kherson region is unchanged. The Kherson region is holding back the onslaught of the Ukronazis who are trying to break into Kherson. We repeat once again that despite the panic that is dispersed in the media, in the Kherson region, the ministry of defence and the Russian Guard stand to the death. The advances of the Ukronazis, fascists, Germans, Americans and other mercenaries have been stopped. The Russian Federation has signed into law an annexation of the Kherson region, despite not fully controlling it.Leaders of 44 European countries on Thursday in Prague will send a clear signal of Russia’s isolation and try to create a new order without Moscow, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has said this morning.“The meeting is looking for a new order without Russia,” Reuters reports he told reporters in Prague.The Kremlin has published details of the decree that Vladimir Putin signed yesterday to “correct” aspects of the partial mobilisation. Russian state media RIA Novosti reports:According to the decree, the deferment is granted to those who receive education of the appropriate level for the first time in full-time and part-time (evening) forms of education. Students, graduate students and residents enrolled in state-accredited programmes of secondary and higher professional education also have this right. In addition, the basis for the postponement will be training in organisations located on the territories of innovative scientific and technological centres, as well as in spiritual educational organisations.Rescue workers on scene of deadly residential rocket strike in ZaporizhzhiaUkraine’s ministry of internal affairs has confirmed that seven Russian rocket attacks hit the city of Zaporizhzhia overnight. It says that first responders are present, and that “work is ongoing, all relevant services are on site”.Regional governor, Oleksandr Starukh, earlier said that one woman was confirmed to have died in the attack while another person died in an ambulance. “At least five people are under the rubble of buildings,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Thursday morning.Images posted by the ministry included pictures of debris on fire, and rescue workers clambering through the rubble of a destroyed high-rise building, which had collapsed on to cars parked in front of it.Rescuers work at a site of a residential building heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia. Photograph: ReutersThe aftermath of a strike in Zaporizhzhia issued by Ukraine’s ministry of the interior. Photograph: Ukraine ministry of the interior / TelegramIvan Fedorov, Ukraine’s elected mayor of Melitopol, said on Telegram: “Dozens of people are under the rubble. The number of victims increases every hour. This is how the Russian terrorist hits civilians with its ‘high-precision’ weapons. It hits civilians and infrastructure, because it demonstrates to the whole world its worthlessness on the battlefield.”The city of Zaporizhzhia is the administrative centre of the Zaporizhzhia oblast, one of the regions of Ukraine that Russia has claimed to annex, despite not controlling all of the territory there.Vitaliy Kim, governor of Mykolaiv, has posted a status update to Telegram to report no casualties overnight in his region. However he says that the region was again attacked by Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones”, and that some residential and farm buildings as well as agricultural lands has been damaged. The claims have not been independently verified.The Russian-imposed authorities in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, occupied Ukrainian territory which the Russian Federation has claimed to annex, have issued casualty figures for the last 24 hours. They claim that six civilians have been wounded and three killed by shelling from Ukrainian armed forces. Additionally they say that 12 houses and five civil infrastructure facilities were damaged. The claims have not been independently verified. This is Martin Belam in London, you can reach me on [email protected] Summary so farBefore I hand you over to my colleague Martin Belam here is a rundown of where things stand as of 9am in Ukraine. Two people have been killed after Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia was allegedly hit by Russian missiles in the early hours of Thursday morning. Regional governor, Oleksandr Starukh, said one woman was confirmed to have died in the attack while another person died in an ambulance. “At least five people are under the rubble of buildings,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Thursday morning. Starukh earlier alleged Russia “fired 7 rockets at high-rise buildings” while rescuers continue to pull people out from under the rubble. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has appeared to admit severe losses in Ukraine, conceding the severity of the Kremlin’s recent military reversals and insisting Russia would “stabilise” the situation in four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – it illegally claimed as its own territory last week. “We are working on the assumption that the situation in the new territories will stabilise,” Putin told Russian teachers during a televised video call on Wednesday. The UN nuclear agency chief is en route to Kyiv to discuss creating a security zone around Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after Putin ordered his government to take it over. “On our way to Kyiv for important meetings,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi wrote on Twitter, saying the need for a protection zone around the site was “more urgent than ever”. Grossi is also expected to visit Moscow in the coming days to discuss the situation at the plant. Ukraine’s forces are pushing their advance in the east and south, forcing Russian troops to retreat under pressure on both fronts. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine’s military had made major, rapid advances against Russian forces in the past week, taking back dozens of towns in regions in the south and east that Russia has declared annexed. Military experts say Russia is at its weakest point, partly because of its decision not to mobilise earlier and partly because of massive losses of troops and equipment. Ukraine has extended its area of control in the Kherson region by six to 12 miles, according to its military’s southern command. Zelenskiy confirmed the recapture of the villages of Novovoskresenske, Novohryhorivka and Petropavlivka, saying the settlements were “liberated from the sham referendum and stabilised,” in an address on Wednesday. Kherson region’s Moscow-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov, said the withdrawal was a tactical “regrouping” to “deliver a retaliatory blow”. The extent of Russia’s retreat remains unclear. Moscow’s forces have left behind smashed towns once under occupation and, in places, mass burial sites and evidence of torture chambers. In Lyman, which was retaken by Ukrainian forces on Sunday, more than 50 graves have been found, some marked with names, others with numbers, the Kyiv-based outlet Hromadske reported on Wednesday. The UN has warned Russia’s claimed annexation of Ukraine territory will only exacerbate human rights violations. Christian Salazar Volkmann, said UN experts had documented “a range of violations of the rights to life, liberty and security” and warned the situation would only worsen as Russia pushes forward with the annexation of some Ukrainian regions. European leaders are set to meet in Prague on Thursday in the face of Russia’s war. Leaders from Ukraine, Britain and Turkey will join their EU counterparts in Prague on Thursday for a summit aimed at bringing the continent together in the face of Russia’s aggression. The gathering has been billed by Brussels as a “platform for political coordination” for the disparate 44 nations attending. Attempts to play down retreats in Ukraine are no longer washing inside Russia with the latest military failures spilling on to local television screens. “Why do we advance metre by metre when they advance village by village?” Olga Skabeyeva, the country’s top state-TV host, asked a Russia-appointed official in Luhansk in a recent broadcast. Pro-war military bloggers and journalists are also criticising the Kremlin and painting a bleak picture of deteriorating Russian morale. Russia is lobbying for a secret ballot instead of a public vote when the 193-member UN General Assembly next week considers whether to condemn Moscow’s move to annex four partially occupied regions in Ukraine. The car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was allegedly authorised by elements within the Ukrainian government, according to US intelligence sources who spoke with the New York Times and CNN. The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, the officials said. A man rides past a damaged building in the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region, Ukraine. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesPjotr SauerAttempts to play down retreats in Ukraine are no longer washing inside Russia with the latest military failures spilling on to Russian television screens.“Why do we advance metre by metre when they advance village by village?” Olga Skabeyeva, the country’s top state-TV host, asked a Russia-appointed official in Luhansk in a recent broadcast.Pro-war military bloggers and journalists are also criticising the Kremlin and painting a bleak picture of deteriorating Russian morale.Roman Saponkov, a prominent war correspondent, described his despair over the pullback in Kherson on his Telegram channel: Friends, I know you’re waiting for me to comment on the situation. But I really don’t know what to say to you. The retreat … is catastrophic.”Aleksandr Kots, a pro-Kremlin journalist who travels with with the Russian army, added: “We do not have enough people … fatigue has set in … there is no longer any strength left to hold on to the territories won.”NewestNewestPreviousNextOldestOldestRussia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 225 of the invasionPoland suggests hosting US nuclear weapons amid growing fears of Putin’s threatsAttempts to play down retreats in Ukraine no longer wash inside RussiaPutin appears to admit severe Russian losses in UkraineUkraine won back territory and support, but Russia will test the west’s resolve againRussia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 224 of the invasionPutin and the prince: fears in west as Russia and Saudi Arabia deepen tiesHow Russia’s strategy failed, not the tank – videoMiss Crimea and friend sing Ukrainian song that 'discredited' Russian army – videoDiary of an Invasion by Andrey Kurkov review – Ukrainian life turned upside down | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
At the beginning of this midterm election year, we received an urgent fundraising appeal from US representative Jake Auchincloss, a centrist Democrat from Massachusetts. The email message informed us that, as a former Marine officer in Afghanistan, Auchincloss “saw firsthand the futility of the Forever Wars.”
All good so far. But then, on behalf of a Democratic Party–funded group called VoteVets, Auchincloss bemoaned the fact that what’s missing in electoral politics today “is people who have seen these conflicts firsthand.” As a result, he noted, “we are at an all-time low of veterans serving in Congress since World War II.” According to Auchincloss, “this trend hurts all of us, not just our troops — because veterans offer a unique perspective in Congress and are able to work together to get things done while sticking to our principles.”
“Our nation is at a critical impasse,” Auchincloss warned. “We have to decide who leads. Those who will defend our democracy above all else or Trump sycophants who have never served anything beside their own self-interest their entire lives.”
We could certainly do with more veterans in Congress “who saw firsthand the futility of the Forever Wars.” The halls of power in the United States are shockingly devoid of representatives from working-class backgrounds, many of whom are veterans. But as the 2022 election cycle reaches its final stage, it’s time for a reality check on Auchincloss’s fanciful account of how veterans inherently function on Capitol Hill — and for a reminder that some of the best-known “Trump sycophants” running for office this fall are ex-military officers who did “see conflicts firsthand,” but are now campaigning under the MAGA flag. As we document in our new book about veterans’ affairs, military laurels are no guarantee that so-called “service candidates,” once elected, will be any more effective or trustworthy than other politicians who never enlisted. Wearing a uniform and swearing allegiance to the Constitution in the past are no reliable gauge of a veteran’s current commitment to “defend our democracy.”
For incumbent members of Congress, “working together to get things done” primarily takes the form of rubber-stamping ever-bigger Pentagon budgets, backing US military intervention abroad, and favoring privatization of veterans’ health care — a bipartisan project that threatens nine million mainly poor or working-class patients served by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). And in January 2021, even after the storming of the Capitol by a Trump-incited mob, thirty-five Republican veterans voted against certifying Joe Biden as his successor. Often, the supposedly “unique perspective” of most GOP veterans is no different from that of other right-wing paranoids in Washington who lack military backgrounds. For example, Ronny Jackson, Donald Trump’s White House doctor who retired from the Navy as an admiral to run for Congress two years ago, believes that his previous presidential patient, Barack Obama, is a “Deep State traitor” who “weaponized the highest levels of our government to spy on President Trump” and deserved to be prosecuted for it. One of Jackson’s House colleagues from Texas is former Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw. He has teamed up with Republican senator Ted Cruz, a non-veteran, to expose the Pentagon’s alleged “woke ideology.”
Meanwhile, Crenshaw has demonstrated his standard-brand fiscal conservativism. Earlier this year, he joined thirty-five other veterans and current members of the National Guard or Reserves in a House vote against expanding eligibility for post-9/11 GI Bill benefits to fellow members of the Guard and Reserves (because it would cost $1.9 billion over the next decade). More recently, because of similar objections to federal spending, two Republican veterans in the Senate — Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Joni Ernst of Iowa — cast an initial vote against the PACT Act, which allocates $280 billion to assist veterans suffering from burn-pit-related ailments and other past toxic exposures.
It was also the Harvard-educated Cotton, you might recall, who urged Trump to deploy federal troops against Black Lives Matters protestors in 2020 “to restore order in our streets.” On Twitter, the former Army captain called for “no quarter for insurrectionists, anarchists, rioters, and looters” — orders which on a real battlefield would be considered a war crime if applied to enemy combatants attempting to surrender. On the ballot this fall, and eager to join Cotton and co., are former Army general Don Bolduc and well-known ex-Marine J. D. Vance. They’re seeking US Senate seats from New Hampshire and Ohio, respectively. Along with 120 other retired generals and admirals, Bolduc signed a letter declaring that Trump won the 2020 election (a stance he is now retreating from after having “done a lot of research on this”). Among Bolduc’s bold ideas is abolishing direct election of US Senators (after he becomes one, of course). Author of the poor-bashing Hillbilly Elegy and a venture capitalist, Vance plans to help veterans and their families by privatizing Social Security, a cause favored by his former boss and biggest single financial booster, the right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel.
Retrograde attitudes toward women and/or paramilitary cosplay have made other Republican veterans — like Eric Greitens in Missouri, J. R. Majewski in Ohio, and Alek Skarlatos in Oregon — less electable. A disgraced former governor, forced to resign four years ago after a sexual assault scandal, Greitens made a failed comeback in his state’s Republican senatorial primary this summer. The ex-Navy SEAL lost after airing a controversial campaign video in which he appeared as a gun-toting member of a camo-clad squad breaking down the door of a private home in search of “RINOs” (Republicans in Name Only).
A challenger to House Democrat Marcy Kaptur, Majewski is a conspiracy theorist who attended the January 6, 2021 election protest at the Capitol in the company of a QAnon blogger. He was so disgusted with Joe Biden’s handling of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan six months later that he declared himself ready to “suit up and go back to Afghanistan tonight and give my best to save those Americans who were abandoned.” If Majewski actually had any post-9/11 combat experience, as he has claimed on other occasions, he would have been playing the veteran card in politics with a stronger hand. Instead, he is now being denounced (and mocked) for “stolen valor” — a mortal sin among veterans — because the closest he got to a combat zone was loading and unloading planes at an Air Force base in Qatar. In Oregon, two-time Republican House candidate Alek Skarlatos has no such need to embellish his record in the Oregon National Guard or afterward. On his way home from Afghanistan in 2015, he helped thwart a terrorist attack on a train in France, as depicted later in Clint Eastwood’s action film, The 15:17 to Paris. President Barack Obama awarded Skarlatos the US Army’s Soldiers Medal; in France, he was inducted into the National Order of the Legion of Honor. Capitalizing on his celebrity persona (which included playing himself in Eastwood’s film), Skarlatos mounted a serious 2020 challenge to Democrat Peter DeFazio, the longest serving veteran in Congress.
This year, DeFazio retired rather than stood for reelection, so Skarlatos is running again. Recently, he has taken flak for comments he made while promoting Eastwood’s film. On a podcast called Drinkin’ Bros, he criticized the appearance of female residents of Roseburg, Oregon, where he lives, and joked with the host about women being choked during sexual encounters with men. His campaign had to issue an apology in which Skarlatos acknowledged being “disappointed” with himself for “comments made as a twenty-four-year old who just left the Army.”
Elsewhere in Oregon, former Green Beret Joe Kent has managed to avoid such slipups so far because, as the New York Times notes, he is “one of the most polished of the MAGA candidates.” Forty-two-year old Kent got into the general election ballot by polishing off Republican House member Jamie Herrera Beutler, one of only seven House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment for inciting the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Kent became a single father of two children when his wife, a Navy intelligence officer, was killed in Syria by an ISIS suicide bomber. In a recent debate, he told voters: “I served for this country for over twenty years. Did eleven combat deployments. Lost many friends. Lost my late wife because our ruling class — Republicans and Democrats — consistently lied to the American people to keep us engaged in wars abroad. That is why I have a skepticism of our federal government.”
Unfortunately, Kent’s “skepticism” extends to federal officials like Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who he believes should face criminal charges for the “scam that is COVID.” (Unvaccinated himself, Kent argues that the COVID-19 vaccine is a form of “experimental gene therapy.”) He also favors criminal prosecution of defense secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley for botching the 2021 US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. And if Republicans regain control of the House with him among them next year, Kent wants to impeach Vice President Kamala Harris because she was “one of the lead fundraisers” for Antifa and Black Lives Matter during protest activity two years ago. In the summer of 2020, when Trump was close to invoking the Insurrection Act and ordering federal troops to suppress Black Lives Matter protests, Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego of Arizona was among those veterans in the House who strongly opposed any use of the US military against civilians. In a public query to Milley, Gallego demanded to know whether he intended “to obey illegal orders from the president?” Gallego, a former Marine, is a Pentagon spending critic and one of the only combat veterans in Congress who also signed a pledge to “End The Forever War,” promoted by the progressive veterans group Common Defense. Its supporters are now working to secure Gallego’s reelection so he can mount a strong challenge to Senator Kyrsten Sinema in the 2024 Arizona Democratic senatorial primary.
Other than Gallego, however, there “really isn’t any veteran in Congress yet who is close to being part of the progressive wing of the Democratic caucus,” according to one former Common Defense staffer. With few exceptions, veterans running as Democrats in swing districts and even in blue state safe seats have been reliably hawkish and “pro–military-industrial complex,” he says. One of them is New Jersey Democratic representative Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and US Naval Academy graduate, who has berated her colleagues in the House for not believing “in muscular foreign policy and muscular national defense like I do,” and has authorized military budgets even bigger than what the Pentagon itself requests.
In July 2020, another VoteVets favorite — former Army Ranger and Bronze Star–winner Jason Crow, a Democratic representative from Colorado — worked with Republican super-hawk Liz Cheney to slow the pace of the Trump administration’s troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. A year later, Crow was more receptive to Biden’s “decision to finally bring our longest war to an end,” although he criticized Afghan refugee evacuation planning by the White House. Representative Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat who did four tours of duty as a Marine officer in Iraq, called that withdrawal a “disaster.” To find a veteran willing to question the military-industrial complex, one has to look outside the two major parties in this election cycle. His name is Matt Hoh, a former Marine with a very impressive resume, who can be found campaigning for North Carolina’s open US Senate seat as a Green Party anti-war candidate against Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former state supreme court justice, and a Trump-backed Republican, Congressman Ted Budd.
The national Democratic Party invested heavily in a failed legal effort to keep Hoh off the ballot. He’s been excluded from debates and ignored in national press coverage of the race. But Hoh is daring to say what needs to be said: a much smaller military budget wouldn’t just promote peace abroad; it would be good for millions of US workers in need of a better life. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks as she leaves the parliament in Taipei, Taiwan August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Ann WangRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBEIJING, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The sight of the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi arriving in Taiwan late on Tuesday was too much to bear for many mainland China internet users, who wanted a more muscular response from their government."Going to bed yesterday night, I was so angry I could not sleep," blogger Xiaoyuantoutiao wrote on Wednesday."But what angers me is not the online clamours for 'starting a fight', 'spare the island but not its people'...(but that) this old she-devil, she actually dares to come!"Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comChina considers Taiwan part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. But Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only its people can decide the island's future.Hashtags related to Pelosi's visit, such as "the resolve to realise national reunification is rock solid", went viral on China's Weibo microblogging platform. By Wednesday, about a dozen of these patriotic hashtags had racked up several billion views.Some bloggers even regarded Pelosi's temerity as justification for an immediate invasion of Taiwan, with many users posting the term "there is only one China".Others said China's military should have done more to stop her plane from landing, and thousands of users mocked a viral Weibo post published by an official People's Liberation Army account last week that had simply read "prepare for war!"."In the future if you are not preparing to strike, don't make these statements to deceive the common people," said one user.The highest level U.S. visit to Taiwan in 25 years has been furiously condemned by China, which has demonstrated its anger with a burst of military activity in the surrounding waters, and by summoning the U.S. ambassador in Beijing, and announcing the suspension of several agricultural imports from Taiwan. read more Countering U.S. support for Taiwan is one of Beijing's most important foreign policy issues, and state-controlled Chinese media has helped ensure public opinion firmly backs Beijing's stance.A livestream tracking the journey of Pelosi's plane to Taipei by Chinese state media on China's dominant chat app WeChat was watched by 22 million users on Tuesday.But Weibo crashed before her plane landed, leaving users in the dark for about 30 minutes to an hour before and after Pelosi stepped onto the airport tarmac.Without mentioning events in Taiwan, Weibo said on Wednesday the platform crashed because its broadband capacity was overstretched.But the level of outrage on Weibo still hit fever pitch, with irate netizens calling for stronger military and economic countermeasures against Taiwan and the United States far outnumbering voices of moderation.Still, there were people urging long-term patience in the face of mounting domestic challenges and unfavourable global sentiment towards China, as well as some for peace."If there really is a war, China will endure the suffering, currently the world powers have not really chosen team China, we would not get any help. Just like Russia, it would be a bit of a lonely war," wrote one user.Weibo, which censored calls for peace and criticism of Russia following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, did not promote hashtags that criticised the outburst of nationalist fervour in response to Pelosi's visit.Qin Quanyao, a Beijing-based blogger, wrote an essay on Tuesday on WeChat in which he noted the current online jingoism harked back to the time of late Chairman Mao Zedong, when primary school children sang songs about the "liberation" of Taiwan."From Weibo, WeChat to various online platforms, the atmosphere suddenly became tense, seemingly returning to the era of 'we must liberate Taiwan' when we were children," he wrote.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Eduardo Baptista, Editing by Brenda Goh & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Rex Tillerson, who served a turbulent term as secretary of state under former US president Donald Trump, was called as a government witness Monday at the trial of a Trump ally accused of leaking intelligence to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).Tillerson testified that he barely knew the defendant, Tom Barrack, once the chairman of Trump’s inaugural committee, or anything about his relationship with the UAE.Instead, he spelled out how he would meet with Trump on a regular basis to discuss foreign policy, emphasizing that the sensitive conversations were supposed to stay confidential.“You really don’t want outside parties to have access to that information and use it to their advantage,” Tillerson told a jury in New York.Prosecutors have alleged Barrack provided inside information on how Trump administration officials viewed a UAE-led blockade of neighboring Qatar.Tillerson testified he had advised Trump not to engage with the UAE on the issue, saying, “We needed to let them sort that out on their own.”Tillerson also described one encounter with Barrack where he “called over to my office and expressed an interest in an ambassadorship”, he said. But Trump didn’t embrace the idea “so that was the end of it”, he said.On cross-examination, Tillerson acknowledged having disagreements with Trump, but stayed clear of criticizing the former president.He said they sometimes played “good cop-bad cop” in their public statements about adversaries such as South Korea.The former Exxon Mobil chief executive is the highest-profile witness so far at the federal trial of Barrack, a billionaire private equity manager and Trump confidant who’s accused of secretly working as a foreign agent for the UAE.Barrack, 75, has pleaded not guilty to that charge, along with obstruction of justice and false statements counts.In 2018, Trump dumped Tillerson via Twitter, abruptly ending the service of a Cabinet secretary who had reportedly called the Republican president a “moron” but refused to step down, deepening disarray within the Trump administration.Trump and Tillerson clashed on several foreign policy issues.Barrack used “unique access” to Trump to manipulate him to advance the interests of the UAE, prosecutors claim, including helping to arrange a 2017 Oval Office meeting between Trump and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.UAE officials allegedly were simultaneously consorting with Barrack, rewarded him by pouring millions of dollars into his business ventures. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
‘MY GUT TELLS ME WE WILL FIGHT IN 2025’: A two-page memo dated Feb. 1 from the four-star head of Air Mobility Command predicting war between the United States and China within two years ricocheted around the internet over the weekend, after being reported by NBC News on Friday. In the memo, Gen. Michael Minihan, orders his troops to prepare for war, including scheduling time with the base legal office to get their personal affairs in order.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan wrote in his first paragraph. “[Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Minihan, who oversees the fleet of Air Force transport and refueling aircraft, directed his airmen to “go faster. ... If you are comfortable with your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.”
“All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualifications will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head,” he ordered. All commanders are ordered to submit a report on their “accomplishments preparing for the China fight” by the end of February.
“I alone own the pen on these orders, My expectations are high and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them,” he wrote.
‘COWBOY AGGRESSION’: While the Pentagon has foot-stomped the theme that China is America’s “pacing threat” and that the U.S. and its allies must build up forces in the region to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a defense official, speaking on background, said the tone of Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China.”
On Fox News Sunday, the only regular Sunday show to discuss the Minihan memo, House Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith (D-WA) cautioned against creating a narrative that war with China is inevitable.
“It's not only not inevitable, it is highly unlikely," said Smith. “We have a very dangerous situation in China, but I think generals need to be very cautious about saying we're going to war. …Their job is to prepare for a wide range of eventualities.”
“We have to be in a position to deter China,” he said. “That's a very dangerous situation that we need to be prepared for, but I'm fully confident that we can avoid that conflict if we take the right approach.”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey accused Minihan of “cowboy aggression” and “bad judgment,” tweeting, “This General officer needs to be placed on terminal leave.”
McCAUL: ‘I THINK HE'S RIGHT’: Republicans were less concerned about whether Minihan was being overly alarmist, instead focusing on the need to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
“I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right though, unfortunately,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX) told Fox News’s Shannon Bream.
“Wait, an actual war?” she interjected.
“Well, I think China's looking at reunification of Taiwan, right?” McCaul replied, arguing that if China can’t achieve its goals by influencing Taiwan’s presidential elections next year, its next option could well be the use of military force.
“We have to be prepared for this. And it could happen I think as long as Biden is in office, projecting weakness, as he did with Afghanistan that led to Putin invading Ukraine, that the odds are very high we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific,” McCaul said.
Other Republicans also endorsed the dire warning from Minihan. “Having just returned from Taiwan, I share and applaud General Minihan's urgency about the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses both to Taiwan and the world,” tweeted Sen. Todd Young (R-IN). “The DOD and our diplomatic community must be ready to address China's aggression.”
“Gen. Mike Minihan has the correct mentality — our bureaucracy needs to catch up,” tweeted Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). “The U.S. military must be ready and able to respond at anytime to growing Chinese aggression.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Seoul, South Korea, this morning (late Monday evening there) for high-level meetings with President Yoon Suk Yeol and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup.
The visit comes as Yoon recently floated the idea that South Korea may have to develop its own nuclear arsenal to deter the growing threat from North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, who has made increasingly bellicose statements about building up the North’s nuclear strike capability.
“I look forward to meeting my counterpart and other senior government leaders to chart an ambitious path forward to advance our shared security priorities in the Indo-Pacific,” Austin said on Twitter.
It’s Austin’s sixth official visit to the region, a trip that will also take him to the Philippines to meet with recently elected President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
STOLTENBERG: N. KOREA SUPPORTING RUSSIA: Austin’s arrival in Seoul coincides with the departure of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who met with Yoon over the weekend.
In a speech to students, Stoltenberg said, “What happens in Europe matters to the Indo-Pacific, and what happens in Asia matters to NATO,” and in a meeting with Foreign Minister Park Jin, Stoltenberg condemned North Korea’s nuclear program and its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“We also know that North Korea is providing military support to the Russian war efforts with rockets and missiles, and this just highlights how we are interconnected,” he said.
BLINKEN TO MIDDLE EAST: At the same time, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Jerusalem, the second stop on a three-day trip that began with a stop in Egypt and will conclude with a visit to the West Bank.
Blinken meets today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his counterpart, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, and will consult “on a range of global and regional priorities,” according to the State Department, “including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran, Israeli-Palestinian relations and preserving the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the protection of human rights and democratic values.”
Blinken’s visit to Israel comes as violence has flared with a Palestinian Jewish settlement in east Jerusalem that killed seven people and an Israeli raid in the West Bank city of Jenin last week that killed 10 people.
“We will be encouraging the parties to take steps to calm things down,” Blinken told reporters at a news conference in Cairo before departing for Israel.
ISW: DELAYS PREVENT UKRAINE FROM PRESSING ADVANTAGE: So far this winter, Ukraine has largely succeeded in blunting Russia faltering counteroffensive, but the long delays in getting fresh armaments from the West have squandered its battlefield advantage, according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.
“Western reluctance to begin supplying Ukraine with higher-end Western weapons systems, particularly tanks, long-range strike systems, and air-defense systems, has limited Ukraine’s ability to initiate and continue large-scale counter-offensive operations,” the ISW said. “Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations.”
“The speed of supply has been and will be one of the key factors in this war,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. “Russia hopes to drag out the war, to exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We must speed up the events, speed up the supply and opening of new necessary weaponry options for Ukraine.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ilhan Omar reveals some GOPs have privately said they will not vote to remove her from committee
Washington Examiner: Swalwell accuses McCarthy of 'political abuse' for removal from Intel committee
Washington Examiner: Air Force general warns troops of war with China by 2025, disagreeing with Pentagon assessment
Washington Examiner: Top Democratic, GOP lawmakers split on Air Force general's forecast of a coming war with China
Washington Examiner: West Point grad in Congress urges GOP to stop 'woke' accusations against military
Business Insider: For The 2nd Year In A Row, Iran Is Sailing Its Biggest Warship Around The World To Show Off Its Growing Navy
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New KC-46 Deficiency Revealed as Contract Is Signed for 15 More Tankers
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Report: Despite Losses in Ukraine, Russia Remains a Threat in the Arctic
Stars and Stripes: Let It Grow: Sailors, Marines Disgruntled By Beard Ban Find Favorable Reception To Challenges
Calendar
MONDAY | JANUARY 30
10 a.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: "New Western Aid for the War in Ukraine and Russian Military Shake-up," with retired Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA Director, partner at KKR, and chairman of the KKR Global Institute https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “Troubled Water — Navigating the Black Sea," with Iulian Chifu, state counselor and adviser to the Romanian prime minister; former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Robert Cekuta, president of Hudson Partners; Yoruk Isik, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute; and Alina Inayeh, adviser to the GMFUS president https://www.gmfus.org/event/troubled-water-navigating-black-sea
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: "Blinken's Trip to Beijing: U.S.-China Relations at a Crossroads," with Kendra Schaefer, partner at Trivium China; Michael Davidson, assistant professor at the University of California, San Diego; Michael Swaine, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute's East Asia Program; and Jake Werner, research fellow at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/blinkens-trip-to-beijing
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “The Russian War in Ukraine: What Was Accomplished in Minsk 2014-2022 and Why Did the Peace Process Ultimately Fail?" with Wolfgang Sporrer, member of the adjunct faculty at the Hertie School https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
12:30 p.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute and Ukraine Friends discussion: “Bucha After Russian Occupation," with Bucha, Ukraine, Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk; Bucha, Ukraine, Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkariska; former USAID Administrator Mark Green, president, director, and CEO of the Wilson Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/bucha-after-russia
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual briefing: “Readying Defense for the Future of Work," with James Sumpter, chief enterprise architect at the Air Force Research Laboratory; Brian Lau, HP future of work product manager; and Stephen Pieraldi, HP technologist https://events.govexec.com/defense-future-of-work
4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call briefing: “Previewing Secretary Blinken's China Visit," with Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Jude Blanchette, CSIS chairman in China studies; and Scott Kennedy, CSIS chairman in Chinese business and economics. RSVP required to Paige Montfort at [email protected]
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: "Lessons Learned From the Russo-Ukraine War and How They Can be Applied to a U.S. China Conflict," with Robert Roseberry, IWP Masters candidate https://www.iwp.edu/events/lessons-learned
7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “A South Korean Nuclear Program? Assessing the Risks,” with Siegfried Hecker, distinguished professor of practice, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Jamie Kwong, fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Jenny Town, senior fellow, Stimson Center, and director, 38 North https://www.stimson.org/event/a-south-korean-nuclear-program
TUESDAY | JANUARY 31
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Assessing the Future Trajectory of China-Japan Relations," with Rumi Aoyama, director of the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Christopher Johnstone, CSIS Japan chairman; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS China studies chairman https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-future-trajectory-china-japan-relations
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The real impact of Western sanctions on Russia," with Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation; Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute for International Finance; and Leonid Volkov, head of the Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-real-impact-of-western-sanctions-on-russia/
11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “A Tale of Two Winters: How Winter is Shaping the War in Ukraine," with Lesia Vasylenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War; Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives at GMFUS; and Sudha David-Wilp, director of the GMFUS Berlin office https://www.gmfus.org/event/tale-two-winters
12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: "Moving Beyond Tragedy; Bucha's Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future," with Bucha, Ukraine, Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk; Bucha, Ukraine, Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkarivska; and Peter Rough, director of the Hudson Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/moving-beyond-tragedy
4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "A New Atlanticism for a Transitory International Order?" with Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
6 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "Holding Russia Liable for Invading Ukraine — Can It Be Done?" with Chiara Giorgetti, professor of law at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Brian Egan, partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and former legal adviser at the State Department https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at [email protected]
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative discussion: "Responding to the Ukrainian Refugee Plight: The EU and US Perspectives," with Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA), president emeritus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Julieta Valls Noyes; Michael Koehler, acting director-general for European civil protection and humanitarian aid operations at the European Commission; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/responding-ukrainian-refugee-plight
10:45 a.m. — Defense Innovation Board meeting, chaired by Michael Bloomberg. Public portion livestreamed on defense.gov
11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Sustaining support to Ukraine,” with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/conversation-with-boris-johnson
1 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: "Ukraine, China, and the International World Order,” with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: "Putin's War or Russia's War?" with Leonid Volkov, chief of staff for Alexei Navalny; and Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://calendar.gwu.edu/putins-war-or-russias-war
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2
10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: "The Foreign Policy of Technology." with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS's Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick
1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: "One Year On: Germany's Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine," with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP's Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: "NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence," with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger.”
Gen. Mike Minihan, Air Mobility Command commander, speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association Air Space & Cyber Conference last year, as quoted by Task & Purpose | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tears into Biden for ‘reckless’ nuclear armageddon comments as the president’s allies say he’s ‘right to raise the risk’ of a fight with PutinFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said President Biden's remark that the world could face nuclear 'armageddon' put Americans' lives at riskMeanwhile Biden ally Senator Chris Murphy vouched for the president'I think Joe Biden is right to get this country ready for the fact that you are dealing with a very dangerous human being in Russia,' Murphy saidNational Security Council official John Kirby also said Biden was just impressing that 'the stakes are high right now' between Russia and UkraineBiden held a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday about Ukraine Published: 16:10 EDT, 9 October 2022 | Updated: 16:21 EDT, 9 October 2022 Mike Pompeo blasted President Joe Biden's warning of possible nuclear armageddon as 'reckless' on Sunday.Appearing on Fox News Sunday, the former Secretary of State under Donald Trump went a step further and said the deteriorating state of affairs in Eastern Europe represented a 'failure' of the Democrat's foreign policy.Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the globe on edge with his increasingly hostile suggestions that Moscow could be ready to use nuclear force as its invasion of Ukraine continues to face historic setbacks. Biden set off shockwaves on Thursday with his comments to donors about how severe he believes the current situation between Russia and Ukraine is. 'We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,' the president said. It prompted multiple Biden administration officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken to quickly clarify that there was no change in US assessments on Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons.Biden's critics, like Pompeo, have attacked the president for inflaming the already-tense situation.But allies of the president's who also appeared on the Sunday news programs defended him by saying he was simply raising alarms about potential future problems. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said President Biden's 'armageddon' comments put Americans' lives at risk'I think the president is right to raise the risk of nuclear conflict because Vladimir Putin is increasingly getting pushed into a corner,' Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, told CNN's State of the Union. 'This is a dangerous man, and the United States needs to be ready for Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon.'Murphy quickly added that he saw 'no sign that he's going to do that imminently' but added, 'I think Joe Biden is right to get this country ready for the fact that you are dealing with a very dangerous human being in Russia.' The National Security Council's Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby reaffirmed to ABC News' This Week that the US saw no change in the Kremlin's nuclear posture but likewise defended Biden's seemingly off-the-cuff remark.'His comments were not based on new or fresh intelligence or new indications that Mr. Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons and, quite frankly, we don’t have indication that he has made that kind of decision,' Kirby said.'What the president was reflecting was that the stakes are high right now given what’s going on on the battlefield in Ukraine and given the very irresponsible and reckless comments made by Vladimir Putin in just the last few days.' Meanwhile an ally of the president's, Democrat Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, said 'I think the president is right to raise the risk of nuclear conflict'Pompeo, however, said Biden's rhetoric put Americans' own lives 'at risk.''Those comments were reckless,' the former chief US diplomat said.'I think that, even more importantly, they demonstrate maybe one of the greatest foreign policy failures of the last decades, which was the failure to deter Vladimir Putin in the same way that the Trump administration did for four years.'He also blasted Biden for the casual setting in which the president levied the dramatic warning.'When you hear a president talking about armageddon at random- as a random thought, just using [it] at a fundraiser- that is a terrible risk to the American people,' Pompeo said. 'If he truly believes that, he ought to be out talking to us in a serious way.'Biden spent most of the weekend at his home in Wilmington, where he spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday about the continuing situation in Ukraine. The National Security Council's Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby reaffirmed to ABC News' This Week that the US saw no change in the Kremlin's nuclear posture but likewise defended Biden's remark'The leaders reiterated their condemnation of Russia’s attempted annexation of Ukrainian territory, as well as their ongoing commitment to hold Russia accountable for its brutal actions and provide security and economic assistance to Ukraine,' the White House said in a readout after their call.'The leaders also discussed recent developments in global energy markets and the importance of securing sustainable and affordable energy supplies. In addition, they talked about efforts to promote regional stability and prosperity in the Western Balkans.'It comes after a portion of the bridge connecting Russia to the Crimean peninsula collapsed in the most recent high-profile setback faced by the Russians in their invasion of Ukraine.A nighttime explosion which also hit a fuel train is responsible for the blast. Three people are reportedly dead.Russia, which has accused Ukraine of orchestrating the explosion, fired rockets overnight Sunday that hit apartment buildings in the city of Zaporizhzhia.Ukrainian officials said at least 17 people were killed. Advertisement | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Investing Pioneer – 6:55 PM EST – 11/17/2022 Major conflicts are an ultimate catalyst and contributor to the unpredictability of economies. At Investing Pioneer (www.investingpioneer.com), when potential conflicts hit the radar, due to their likelihood, imminence, and potential widespread impact, denoting and understanding the probabilities and range of possible outcomes are paramount to establishing a fair economic outlook to form a sound investment and business thesis. Black Swans are black swans, sure. This means some may postulate such exercises are a moot point, as in a sound portfolio, the confluence of potential outcomes is inherently accounted for, and historically, shouldn’t prove an issue. For entrepreneurs, businesspeople, or stakeholders in specific sectors with outsized exposure to China, Taiwan, related industries, and second+third order effects that would arise from a major conflict between the neighboring nations, the story is different. You’d probably want to keep a finger at the pulse of the evolution of the economic and geopolitical contributors fueling or de-escalating tensions (meaning, this article is especially for you). That said, for a major conflict, the impacts would be far-reaching, to almost every person on Earth, in some way or another. Either way, understanding to the best of our ability what could be to come based on present and past developments is a fair endeavor. Photo by Pok Rie on Pexels.com Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated monetary expansion while creating supply issues and widening the gap between the true productive capacity of the economy and the amount of available credit. Naturally, high inflation followed. Indeed the highest for the U.S. in ~40 years. Subsequently, Russia invaded Ukraine, a military maneuver with widespread and long-lasting effects. With this, the economy is being stress tested, exposing severe issues relating to energy, real estate, and the financial system at large. After the series of destabilizing events over the past several months and years, it can be hard to imagine worse to come. But the fact is, underlying economic and geo-political factors are coming to a head. That means more potential turmoil, especially for China and Taiwan. From an economic perspective, a Taiwan conflict may prove one of the most significant events over the next five years. But many have grown weary of China’s talk – is it all talk? Probably not. The fact is, Taiwan’s sovereignty is at real risk. Only 130 km off the coast of mainland China, it represents an established and burgeoning capitalist entity with great infrastructural systems in place for the production of a key resource. Some call it the new oil (though of course, in literal terms, it doesn’t supplant oil in the context of energy). Semiconductors As certain well-positioned companies have moats, – proprietary technology, resources, techniques, infrastructure, etc. (which may not be replicated effectively or at all in due notice) – countries can as well. And Taiwan certainly does. TSMC, the company responsible for this outsized industry, comprises 55% of chip production globally, accounting for over $400 billion in revenue a year. Because of recent limited sanctions on semiconductors by the US, and the growing importance of the advancement and supply of computer chips in the context of growing military and technological rivalries (as the rift between China and the US widens), Taiwan appears at severe risk of a military invasion from China within the coming years. For decades, speculation surrounding the potential for an invasion of Taiwan has been prevalent. Its proximity, economy, and the CCP’s official narrative make it hard not to assume it’s possible. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February added fuel to this conversation. For some, the risk suddenly felt more tangible, and people were quick to draw parallels. That said, there are several key differences between the two scenarios. Though it’s certainly a matter of if (they ever do invade) – it’s more a question of – when. Are external or internal factors more integral for the initiation of such an invasion? How is the rapidly evolving global economy – leading to heightened turmoil – poised to affect contributing geopolitical variables? What developments would compel China to invade Taiwan, due to which they probabilistically perceive the risks and downsides of an invasion are lower than the potential benefits for the mainland nation? Maybe most importantly, What would such an invasion look like?… To what extent would the United States intervene?… What would the global effects be, both economically and geo-politically? Let’s dive in. Historical Background of China and Taiwan In 1911, China underwent a revolution, with the Chinese Nationalist party gaining control, beginning the age of republicanism for China, ending thousands of years of Imperial rule (with a different dynasty every couple hundred years on average). In the decades following, China would experience a communist revolution, leading to the creation of the People’s Republic of China, formally established by Mao Zedong on October 1st, 1949. The opposition leader of China prior, Chiang Kai-Shek, with his government and army, retreated to Taiwan the same year. Over a million migrated to the Island Nation, with an army on the island consisting of approximately 500,000 troops, serving as a reason to prevent any easy invasion by mainland China to conquer the last major bastion of organized resistance to China’s communist movement. With the outbreak of the Korean war in 1950-53, the US arrived to intervene in the region to quell hostilities by dispatching a fleet in the Taiwan Strait. The United States signed a treaty in 1954 to pledge support for Taiwan in the context of an invasion by the PRC. However, in 1979, the Taiwan Relations Act established that the United States would support their ability to defend themselves, but would not directly participate in the conflict (in the form of troops, etc.). The act represented a major step towards appeasing mainland China. This stands in contrast to a recent statement by Joe Biden saying US forces would defend Taiwan in the context of an invasion, a step further than the intervention the United States is currently providing to Ukraine, in the face of the invasion by Russia, which includes the shipment of military supplies and designated government spending. “Biden says the U.S. would intervene to defend Taiwan if China staged an attack.”
NPR Since 1949, mainland China has consistently rebuked Taiwan’s claim of sovereignty. The US held the opposite view against mainland China with the global stage signaling the same. This started to change by 1971 under Nixon. The PRC received enough votes that year in the United Nations general assembly to establish the PRC as representative to China, in contrast to its island counterpart. The year following, Nixon would visit China, opening the country to the west in a historic way, sparking the major trade relations that continue to this day. That’s why “everything” says “made in China”. By now, only 13 of the 193 UN nations worldwide accept Taiwan’s sovereignty, an effect of foreign policy decisions by the US in the 70s, and a reflection of China’s growing dominance and influence on the world stage. 1995-96 In response to the concern that the United States and Taiwan were drifting away from the mindset of unification, in part triggered by Clinton’s move of granting the President of China a visa to visit the United States, and other events establishing a worrying pattern in mainland China’s eyes, tensions rose and a series of military tests as a means of posturing occurred. This would be known as the third Taiwan Strait Crisis, and involved a series of missile tests, air and naval-based exercises near Taiwan with commensurate verbal threats as well. At that time, China’s economy and military strength were meager relative to the US, to say the least. Predicated on that fact, an order by the Clinton Administration to position two aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait meant the crisis quickly came to a close. More than 25 years later, China’s economy and global importance have grown immensely, with a significant investment toward military spending having occurred during the same period. This begs the question of how a “fourth Taiwan strait” crisis would play out. Indeed, the risks associated with escalation have changed greatly since then. This coincides with the general theme of US dominance globally, and how it will evolve. Is the invasion of Ukraine and a potential invasion of Taiwan a reflection of rebellion against the US in the face of diminishing power? Putin said in a recent speech (translated to English): “America has nothing to offer the world except world domination”. Are these key movements by nations a reflection of a broader trend to establish a more “multi-polar” world? The creation and growth of BRICS indicate this could be the case. Effectively, what Putin is saying is that for too long has the United States taken advantage of other nations and that other nations should push back, creating a multi-polar world instead. Of course, political dogma is subject to distortion, inaccuracies, and strong biases, and any speech or statement from Putin should be treated accordingly. Nonetheless, it may provide some context for broader motives and trends that may grow, not just for Russia but others standing against U.S. hegemony. Whether this derives from a longer-term outlook, or is based on short-term self-interested purposes remains to be seen. In another statement by Putin, he said, “where once to see a country disagree with the United States was rare, today it has become common.” Though this is true in certain respects for certain timelines, there have been several instances in the past, to say the least, of countries disagreeing with the U.S. (as Putin puts it). Whether the rate has truly increased needs further investigation. As we enter a period of economic contraction, self-preservation and a reduction in the globalism of the economy may be seen. Such a period may mean a diminishment of the current hegemony, and instead more bilateral agreements, ousting the dollar and US from control or increased benefit. This does not mean the United States will not remain the leading superpower. BRICS, Multi and Bilateralism, Trust and Protectionism After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States and several other nations and companies cut ties with and sanctioned Russia and Russian companies. Saudi Arabia instead strengthened investment and ties with the country. “Taken together, the moves represent a distinct Saudi tilt toward Moscow and away from the United States, which it has typically aligned itself with.” -NYT Clifford Krauss Further, “Obviously, Saudi-Russian ties are deepening” -NYT, Bill Richardson, a former U.S. energy secretary and ambassador to the United Nations. Saudi Arabian and OPEC defiance of the United States is nothing new, to be fair, though as shown above, it may represent a shift from long-standing behavior. Analyzing the general global trend for the decade or so, a pattern emerges: BRICS Standing for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, it originally was an acronym coined by the economist Jim O’Neil (then BRIC) in the early 2000s. Then, it turned into a more cohesive organization, in theory serving as a competitor to G7 nations. The first BRIC summit was held in 2009. Now BRICS, the 14th annual summit was held in Beijing on June 23rd, 2022. This year, it has been stated Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia express a willingness to join the economic coalition. Whether these moves are significant in terms of progressing any formal and organizational power of BRICS remains to be seen. Since 2000, multiple marked economic and geo-political moves have been made, with several commentators saying it indicates the fall of the US dollar as a world reserve currency is underway. These catalysts referenced include the 2008 financial crisis, sparking the years of QE, adding to the base money supply. Shortly following 2008, many suggested high inflation or even hyperinflation would soon follow due to the monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve and other central banks in response to the great financial crisis. This has not proven true yet, of course. There is a very simple principle that explains this. If you create 1 trillion dollars but keep it in an account, does it cause inflation? No. This is why the average velocity of the total money supply has fallen. At the same time, the price of financial assets has risen greatly and consistently in this period. This includes the stock market. Indeed, Quantitive Easing has fostered the rise in prices of publicly traded securities. The sustainability thereof is called into question. The answer isn’t just a simple recession or moderate pull-back in prices. Monetary expansion was most marked in 2020-2021. Commensurately, this explosion in liquidity fostered speculative endeavors with a rise in the share price in stocks. Particularly, ETF Fund AARK fell victim to this speculative rally driven by the expansion in credit. Smaller stocks like GME, OCGN, and hundreds of other tickers garnered massive communities and saw unprecedented rises in share price as well. Of course, such speculative rallies are nothing new. Take the dotcom bubble of the late 90s and early 2000s. Continuing, China and Russia began using their respective currencies to settle bilateral trade in 2010, bypassing the US dollar. The Atlantic Council called them “partners in de-dollarization.” In 2011, the former President of China said “the current international currency system is the product of the past” (Washington Post, 2011). A question, of course, is whether this is merely political dogma with little connection to reality. Today, in 2022, the dollar, as indicated by the DXY (a basket of currencies measuring the strength of the dollar relative to those currencies), is at multi-year highs. A series of other bilateral agreements, including between China & Japan, India & Japan, Russia & Japan, and others happened in the last decade. Mike Maloney, a well-known economic and monetary commentator, who believes the US dollar is poised for a sharp decline in purchasing power (in effect, hyperinflation), calls these events “nails in the coffin” for the dollar and the current financial & monetary system as a whole. Speculating, in the context that such a collapse does occur and runs its course, the United States’ dominance would not necessarily be as reduced as some postulate. Indeed, such an event involves the entire financial system, meaning all countries will be affected. Some of this may be trust-breaking down. A byproduct of this, as Maloney has discussed in several presentations, is several countries requesting the repatriation of their gold or even further, purchasing record amounts of gold. In a recent video, Maloney indicates how central banks are purchasing as much gold as they were doing in 1966 when the monetary system was still based on gold (US dollars were backed by the gold reserves of the Fed). Against this economic backdrop, certain factors relating to the geopolitics surrounding the US, China, and Taiwan may be better evaluated. There can be no doubt that on a global scale, most or all countries will suffer as inflation and interest rates become a more unwieldy issue. Note, inflation has proven to be higher on average for all nations compared to the United States. As well, china alone is potentially facing a severe economic crisis. With this, we can begin to review specifics surrounding Taiwan. Recently, China’s communist party adopted the rejection of Taiwan’s independence itself into their constitution. Recently, sanctions by the U.S. regarding computer chip manufacturing and trade have left China in a vulnerable position, potentially increasing the incentive for an invasion of Taiwan to intervene or obtain TSMC’s infrastructure and technology. It is said in the context of an invasion, the factories would be destroyed by Taiwan itself. In theory, this should reduce the economic incentive of China. Of course, the political incentive remains. An important aspect to consider when discussing a proxy war between the US and China is rare earth metals. US military reliance on Chinese exports of rare earth metals is significant, as China accounts for about 80% of exports globally (according to a U.S. geological survey released in 2019). Due to this fact, in recent years, the US has planned to decrease reliance on China by allocating investment to US-located rare earth metal mines. If China caps exports of rare earth metals, previous production amounts (military and commercial means) will be difficult or infeasible. In January 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China proposed controls on the export of rare earth metals. Presumably, this has military motives. A Financial Times article stated, “China targets rare earth export to hobble US defense industry.” A smaller, yet potentially important factor is the exportation of javelin missiles from the US to Ukraine which is said to be diminishing supply to the extent that if an invasion of Taiwan occurs soon, the ability to help could be diminished if capacities are not replenished. This seems less probable due to the timeline of an invasion of Taiwan, which realistically may begin at the soonest, in one to two years, if at all. Going back to recent U.S. sanctions on computer chips, this negatively affects China’s supply of computer chips, AKA: cutting off the supply of advanced chips. The Chinese Commerce Minister, in response to NVIDIA being told by the U.S. to halt top AI chips to China, made statements urging the U.S. to “stop wrongdoing immediately”. Kirian Van Hest (@desogames on Twitter) has said what the US just did is somewhat equivalent or similar to the oil embargo by the US to Japan before Pearl Harbor and the declaration of war (WW II) that followed. Indeed, this coincides with the popular statement in recent years that semi-conductors are ‘the new oil’, or rather a new oil, as oil is not supplanted as they don’t serve the same basic purpose. The catchphrase comes from the importance of semiconductors, often called the ‘backbone’ of the modern economy. Of course, the hierarchy of importance will also mean energy is more crucial. Conclusion and Outlook Considering any shortage in supply (for high-tech computer chips) for China, the increasing provocation of Taiwan in their narrative and military practices, and the proximity of Taiwan coupled with a progressively more unstable global economy (macro-economically) and the fact that the Mecca of semiconductor production is located only 100 miles off the coast of mainland China makes Taiwan at considerable risk of invasion in the coming years. Accordingly, as a direct impact, the price of semi-conductors is expected to potentially rise significantly in coming years. It remains somewhat unclear what the United State’s role would be in the context of an attempted invasion (in terms of, to what extent they would intervene). The present situation could be resolved if in the coming several months it appears tensions fall, and factors associated with an increased chance of invasion are reduced. To do this, less protectionism and more co-operation would be necessary. Finally, as for the general economic outlook: Inflation will continue to prove an issue, and the economy will get much worse before things get better. The unique alignment of macroeconomic variables may warrant an altered investment strategy for the foreseeable future, relative to the past several decades. Indeed, value investments that tend to perform well in most economic headwinds will never be, by and large, bad holdings on a long-term timeline. This said, a general shift in capital to non-productive assets is expected. Meaning, although cliché, gold, and silver are expected to outperform in the following 12-48 months. The above does not construe financial advice. The author, nor the website, are, nor construe the role of financial advisors. The author or site are not responsible for investment or financial decisions based on the above article. The contents of this article are for informational and educational purposes only.
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President Biden and his national security team have come a long way in recognizing the growing danger presented by a risen China and a resurgent Russia. Despite earlier instincts, they now seem willing to confront the reality of a clear anti-Western strategic alliance between those two powers, including mutual support for open aggression in their respective regions. The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance in March 2021 mostly reflected the priorities that prevailed during the eight years of the Obama-Biden administration. “Pandemics and other biological risks, the escalating climate crisis, cyber and digital threats, international economic disruptions, protracted humanitarian crises, violent extremism and terrorism, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction all pose profound and, in some cases, existential dangers,” it warned. This document also mentioned, almost in passing, “We face a world of rising nationalism, receding democracy, growing rivalry with China, Russia, and other authoritarian states.” Use of the anodyne “rivalry” — which could apply equally to economic relations with U.S. friends and allies such as Canada or France — obscured the reality that with Russia and China, the interaction is potentially nuclear war. The rivalry included earlier armed standoffs in Syria over Russia’s support for Bashar al-Assad, a proclaimed enemy of America. President Obama’s “red line” on Assad’s use of chemical weapons and his declaration that Assad “must go” were stymied by Vladimir Putin’s deployment of Russian forces. Putin also triumphed with his invasion of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea in early 2014 when Obama and NATO chose not to enforce the security guarantees given to Ukraine in exchange for surrendering its nuclear weapons. (During the Bush administration, Putin already had gotten away with his 2008 invasion of Georgia — also “protected” by Western assurances.) The 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance did not mention Russia’s illegal occupation of the two NATO aspirants, nor that Putin’s expansionist appetite remained unsated. It said only, “Russia remains determined to enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the world stage.” It described China as “rapidly becom[ing] more assertive. It is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.” Of both countries, it said, “Our task is to ensure [America’s] advantages endure by … reinvigorating our leadership abroad.” One other passage proved tragically unprophetic: “We will work to responsibly end America’s longest war in Afghanistan while ensuring that Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for terrorist attacks against the United States.” Before the administration was ready to release its final document, three major international events heavily influenced the report’s content and direction. First was the badly botched withdrawal — i.e., abandonment — of Afghanistan in August 2021 that was anything but responsible and deeply damaged America’s reputation for reliability on the world stage. Biden belatedly recognized the urgent need to restore U.S. credibility elsewhere. Two months later, during a CNN town hall, he unequivocally committed the U.S. to defend Taiwan. Over the next year, he repeated the pledge three more times. (On all four occasions, his staff said afterward that nothing had changed substantively in the U.S-Taiwan relationship or the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity.) Second was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which loomed in late 2021. The Biden administration was unable to deter Putin by warning of punishing economic sanctions, and unwilling to threaten direct U.S. military intervention with a no-fly zone. Biden exclaimed, “That would be World War III.” Instead, the administration provided Ukraine with a halting delivery of weapons, gradually increasing them in quality and quantity. While suffering great human and infrastructure costs, Ukraine’s bravery and skill using Western arms enabled it to hold its own — and even reverse Russia’s control of large parts of territory. Putin’s reckless threats to use nuclear weapons have not deterred Biden from continuing that level of support for Ukraine, though he continues to withhold long-range systems that could hasten the war’s end but might further “provoke” Putin. Third, the visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), over the objections of both Beijing and Biden, precipitated the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. China conducted its largest ever naval, air and missile exercises over and around Taiwan, effectively constituting a two-week blockade of the island. The only U.S. operational response, after the exercise concluded, was to send a Navy cruiser through the Taiwan Strait as a demonstration of freedom of navigation. By last week, the administration was ready to release its 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS). It repeats Biden’s statement that “the world is at an inflection point,” noting that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “shattered the peace of Europe and impacted stability everywhere,” and that China “harbors the intention and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order in [its] favor.” Says the NSS: “This strategy recognizes that the [People’s Republic of China] presents America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are significant global dimensions to this challenge.” Nevertheless, it pledges, “the United States remains committed to managing the competition between our countries responsibly.” The document is replete with references to “competition,” which might suggest an even milder interaction than that between “rivals” mentioned in the 2021 interim guidance. But the document’s nuances are more than semantic. On the one hand, the NSS declares, “We will build the strongest and broadest possible coalition of nations that seek to cooperate with each other, while competing with those powers that offer a darker vision and thwarting their efforts to threaten our interests.” But, to alleviate the concerns of those countries “uneasy with the competition between the United States and the world’s largest autocracies,” it states: “We also want to avoid a world in which competition escalates into a world of rigid blocs. We do not seek conflict or a new Cold War.” Yet, the confrontational nature of the relationship between the U.S. and the West on one side and the two leading autocratic powers seeking to destroy them is unavoidable. “The United States is a global power with global interests. … If one region descends into chaos or is dominated by a hostile power, it will detrimentally impact our interests in the others,” the NSS says. In announcing the new strategy approach, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said, “The post-Cold War era is definitively over.” The NSS favors, instead, “The era of competition.” Eventually, if actual conflict does not erupt first, they will have to recognize that, for China and Russia, we have long been in Cold War II. What Mark Twain said of Wagner’s music may now apply to Biden’s foreign policy: It is better than it sounds. Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He served in the Pentagon when Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia and was involved in Department of Defense discussions about the U.S. response. Follow him on Twitter @BoscoJosephA. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
- A trial over unpaid Cuban sovereign debt enterted its second week at the UK High Court.
- The debt dates back to the 1980s, when Fidel Castro still ruled Cuba.
- If it loses, Cuba could be on the hook for billions of dollars more.
Illegally recorded videos, chaotic protests and testimony from an imprisoned Cuban bank official marked the first week of a high-stakes trial in the UK High Court between Cuba and an investment fund.
The fund has sued Cuba over tens of millions of dollars' worth of unpaid commercial loans from the 1980s, when Fidel Castro was still ruling the island. The debts are so old they are denominated in German Deutsche Marks, a currency replaced by the euro in 2002. If Cuba loses, it could end up costing the nation billions.
The fund's representatives testified in court on Wednesday and said repeatedly that they did not want to litigate, but that it was a "last resort" after the Cuban government ignored repeated requests to negotiate for a decade.
"For CRF, litigation is unattractive," the fund's chairman, David Charters, said Thursday, the fourth day of the trial. "It's slow, it's expensive, it's time-consuming. But if it's the only way to get the other side to the table, then you have to go down that route."
The trial is seen as a test case. CRF1, formerly known as the Cuba Recovery Fund, owns more than $1 billion in face value of European bank loans extended to Cuba in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which Cuba defaulted on in 1986.
CRF1, which began accumulating the position in 2009, is suing Cuba and its former central bank over only two of the loans they own for more than $70 million dollars. If CRF wins on this small slice of Cuba's total outstanding commercial debt, estimated at $7 billion, it could lead to further lawsuits from other debt holders, with claims against Cuba rising into the billions.
The Cuban team has argued in pretrial court filings and during the trial that the debt was not lawfully transferred or "reassigned" to CFR, which is registered in the Cayman Islands, and has focused on technical aspects of Cuban law arguing that CRF does not have the right to sue Cuba based on Cuban law.
The trial, which started a week ago, is expected to last until Thursday. Neither representatives for CRF nor the Cuban government responded to interview requests. Once the trial is over, a judgement is expected in two to four months.
It has drawn so many attendees, including press, the judge ordered a second courtroom opened, equipped with a video monitor, to handle overflow.
At least four people recorded videos in the overflow room and posted them online, drawing rebukes from the judge, Sara Cockerill. Recording proceedings in the high court is a violation of UK law. Cockerill demanded more than once that the videos be removed from social media and ordered those who had posted them to appear in court to apologize, or else they'd be charged with contempt of court.
By Wednesday, a frustrated Cockerill said if there were any further breach of the rules regarding recordings, she would shut down the overflow courtroom and force anyone who wants to watch the proceedings "to sit on the floor in here."
Adding to the intrigue: a court attendee who's a dead ringer for Raul Castro's son and Fidel Castro's nephew, Alejandro. Cuban officials say the man is just a press officer for the Cuban Embassy in the UK.
Outside the courthouse, Cuban exiles protested and shouted "asesinos" and "cobardes" (Spanish for "killers" and "cowards") each time the Cuban government's representatives and legal team entered or left the building.
Defaulted sovereign debt, like that of Cuba, trades on the secondary market. "Distress" investors specialize in buying unpaid debts at a discount to face value and then negotiating with the government in question to settle them, usually for a portion of the principal and a portion of the past due interest. Many countries have been through debt restructurings, from Greece to Nicaragua to Iraq.
In a CRF investor presentation from 2009, used as evidence during the trial, the fund wrote, "Historic restructurings of emerging market debt point to potential returns of 100% - 1,000%."
In court testimony, a CRF representative said, "the whole strategy" of the fund was based on President Barack Obama's election in 2008 and Obama's desire to work toward ending the decades-long U.S. embargo against Cuba, imposed during the Cold War.
When Obama and then-Cuban President Raul Castro announced a thawing of relations in 2014, Cuban debt temporarily shot up to 30-35 cents on the dollar, after trading at 6-8 cents for decades, a CRF representative testified Wednesday.
But the investment thesis did not work out. Despite numerous diplomatic efforts from the Obama administration, the Cuban government expressed little interest in any U.S. commercial presence or investment on the island.
After Obama's historic visit to Cuba in 2016 there was a harsh crackdown on political dissent. The embargo did not end, and many of the relaxations announced under Obama were rolled back under President Donald Trump.
According to court filings and testimony, CRF sent several letters to the Cuban government and offered Cuba a "debt-for-equity swap" — not uncommon in debt restructurings involving countries with little cash on hand. In such a deal, the creditor receives a concession to, or ownership of, a government-owned property such as an airport or a port. Creditors then invest in the asset and receive a portion, or all, of the revenues generated by the asset.
Some of the most dramatic and combative testimony came from Raúl Olivera Lozano, a former official from the Banco Nacional de Cuba, now serving a 13-year prison sentence in Cuba. He was convicted for agreeing to accept a bribe of 25,000 pounds in exchange for signing paperwork which allowed the debt in question to be transferred to CRF, which then allowed the fund to sue Cuba.
But Olivera Lozano says he never got paid. "I did that document because I expected economic benefits and the money," he testified via videolink from Cuba, adding that the CRF representative "did not comply with that, and I found myself having been used by this gentleman," referring to Jeet Gordhandas, a CFR representative.
CRF has maintained the accusations of bribery are "scurrilous" and were falsified by the Cuban government solely to justify not paying the debt.
While it may be dramatic, the bribery allegation is not a core part of the Cuba defense. Instead, the government's lawyers have focused on legal interpretations of Cuban statutes, improper paper work and whether CRF could rightfully sue the Cuban government
Even though Cuba's defaulted debt is nearly 40 years old, there's a precedent for bondholders waiting even longer. More than 300,000 holders of czarist-era Russian bonds, which the Bolsheviks defaulted on in 1917 after the revolution, received payment in 2000.
Because of the U.S. embargo against Cuba, American investors are prohibited from owning and trading Cuban debt, which frustrates some frontier-market hedge fund managers in the U.S. They argue that holding Cuban debt would better serve U.S. foreign policy interests because it would give Americans a seat at some future negotiating table.
Beyond the European commercial debt, there are still nearly 6,000 American claims outstanding from individuals and companies whose properties were confiscated by the Castro government in the 60s.
John Kavulich, the head of the U.S.-Cuba Trade & Economic Council, is closely following the trial on behalf of American companies with claims still outstanding.
"This has not been an elegant spectacle," he said. "Companies and financial institutions are watching, and thus far the message they have received from the lawsuit and the trial is to avoid Cuba." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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President Biden has not been shy in the past year about personalizing Russia’s war with Ukraine. He has called President Vladimir Putin a killer, levied sanctions on Putin’s friends and relatives, described him as tactically wrong to believe Russia could easily crush its neighbor and delusional for craving a revival of Russia’s autocratic past.
The vastly different world views of Biden and Putin are vividly apparent today amid an increasingly direct contest, The New York Times reports. With high stakes and an unclear path to victory, Putin used a state-of-the-nation address in Moscow at noon local time to accuse the West of trying to destroy Russia by stoking war (Reuters).
Biden is set to speak later today from the Royal Castle in Warsaw. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the president will deliver an “affirmative statement of values,” not a head-to-head rebuttal to Putin’s grievances. “There’s a kind of absurdity in the notion that Russia was under some form of military threat from Ukraine or anyone else,” Sullivan added (CNN).
The Russian president said his country’s economy has withstood sanctions, accusing Western nations of seeking to set post-Soviet countries on fire through means of economic suppression (FirstPost live blog).
Speaking in an enormous hall in front of an audience of parliamentary and military leaders, Putin said Russia will continue its war with Ukraine while seeking to defeat what he claimed is the West’s determination to crush his country. Putin said the Russian people support opposition to aggressors in the West and he railed against same-sex marriage and “corrupt” values.
▪ CNN: Russian forces have made incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, analysis from the Institute for the Study of War suggests.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: During one year of war with Ukraine, Russia’s armed forces have sustained up to 60,000 fatalities and up to 200,000 combined dead and injured, including military and paramilitary, according to estimates by the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry.
▪ The New York Times: Moscow sends poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine with a strategy to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say.
After Biden’s five hours on the ground in Ukraine, which Russian state television presented as a publicity stunt, Putin had been expected to flip the global script, portraying Russia as the West’s intended victim and war with Ukraine as a valiant, patriotic cause.
▪ The Atlantic, by Eliot A. Cohen: The president’s visit to Ukraine was a gut punch to the Russian leader.
▪ The Guardian: Biden’s Ukraine trip undercuts Kremlin narrative of waning support among western allies.
After making his way from Poland on Monday to Kyiv under the cloak of darkness to stand under a blue sky with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky without the protection of a military base, Biden retraced his steps to Poland where he will deliver remarks this evening. He and Polish President Andrzej Duda will meet before flying back to Washington. Other allied leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, were also scheduled to visit Kyiv (Reuters).
The U.S. announced another $460 million in weapons and ammunition for Ukraine but made no mention of the advanced arms that Zelensky has asked for, including long-range weapons and fighter jets as it attempts to hold off a Russian offensive in the east.
▪ EU Observer: A new EU blacklist designed to mark a year of war names Russians accused of organizing mass abductions of Ukrainian children.
Biden’s message remains that the United States and European allies will stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes,” even as definitions of that timeline and military commitments vary among world leaders.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who speaks with Putin periodically, said during Saturday media interviews that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine but warned against “crushing” Russia (France 24). Macron favors a diplomatic solution, the shape of which is gossamer, while Zelensky pushes for the defeat and withdrawal of Russian forces from all regions of his country.
“I am convinced that, in the end, this will not conclude militarily,” Macron told two French newspapers and broadcaster France Inter. “I do not think, as some people do, that we must aim for a total defeat of Russia, attacking Russia on its own soil. Those observers want to, above all else, crush Russia. That has never been the position of France and it will never be our position,” he continued.
Zelensky, dressed in his customary khaki attire, lauded Biden for his clandestine trek to Kyiv, saluting him on Monday for championing “the liberty and democracy in the world.”
“This will be remembered eternally. And Ukraine is grateful to you, Mr. President, to all the U.S. citizens, to all those who cherish freedom just as we cherish them. Glory to our warriors. Glory to our allies. And glory to Ukraine.” — Ukrainian President Zelensky
Meanwhile, China on Monday bristled at the U.S. claim that Beijing is mulling sending “lethal support” to help Russia in its war with Ukraine. China accused the Biden administration of spreading lies and defended its close partnership with Russia (The New York Times).
Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, arrived in Moscow on Monday, according to Russian state media. He met briefly last week in Munich with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who warned against China’s involvement in helping Moscow’s war effort. Wang reportedly responded vaguely that China supports dialogue and an end to the war. A Kremlin spokesman said Wang may meet with Putin.
Related Articles
▪ BNN Bloomberg: The Pentagon announced a package of $460 million in additional weapons and lethal assistance for Ukraine, including HIMARS ammunition, artillery rounds, about 2,000 anti-armor rockets, more Javelin anti-armor systems, air surveillance radars, four Bradley Infantry Fire Support Team vehicles, night-vision devices and other gear.
▪ Bloomberg News: The U.S. will impose new export controls and a fresh round of sanctions on Russia, targeting key industries a year after the invasion of Ukraine.
▪ The New York Times: Russian ally Belarus on Monday expelled Polish diplomats as the rift widens between neighbors.
▪ NBC News: Conservative House Republicans on Monday criticized Biden’s trip to Ukraine, arguing the president is neglecting domestic issues while abroad on Monday and Tuesday.
▪ The New York Times: As quickly as the national craziness over three downed objects began, the U.S. called off the search, leaving answers encased in Arctic ice and under the whitecaps of Lake Huron.
LEADING THE DAY
➤ POLITICS
The culture wars have entered the budget battle, as GOP leaders take aim at “woke” spending and Democrats push back with charges of bigotry, write The Hill’s Aris Folley and Mike Lillis. Republicans are beginning to sharpen the focus around areas of so-called “woke-waste” to target in the federal budget, ranging from funds for transgender immigrants in Los Angeles to a nature trail named for former first lady Michelle Obama in Georgia.
The items were included in a list unveiled earlier this month by Republicans on the House Budget Committee, which identified areas of “wasteful” spending GOP leaders are hoping to eliminate, saying they’re working to safeguard taxpayers from a federal government that’s abused its authority with efforts to promote “equity” and “inclusion,” typically on issues of race, gender and sexuality. Democrats are accusing GOP leaders of targeting minority benefit programs, not because they’re expensive, but because the fight energizes their conservative base.
“It’s very exemplary of their approach, which is a blend of cutting support to working-class families while also lacing in bigotry and racism,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), adding the real goal is “to distract from the actual economic impact, negative economic impact, that they’re having on working families.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) left the Sunshine State and traveled to Staten Island to give a speech on Monday about New York’s crime (ABC News) while simultaneously criticizing Biden for “neglecting” domestic issues while traveling to Ukraine and Poland Monday and Tuesday (The Hill). DeSantis on Monday took aim at New York City Mayor Eric Adams over New York City crime (Fox News).
DeSantis, a frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination, hinted on Fox & Friends Monday that he will decide on a presidential bid after the Florida legislative session ends this summer (The Hill).
Ahead of Wisconsin’s Supreme Court primary today, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil has rounded up five key things to know, including candidates, turnout and issues — such as abortion and redistricting. The race may act as a bellwether for the 2024 elections.
▪ Politico: He was once an illiterate teen running the streets. Now he’s running for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.
Three key figures connected to former President Trump are at the intersection of two accelerating Justice Department probes seen as the most viable pathways for a prosecution against the former president, The Hill’s Rebecca Betisch reports. Special counsel Jack Smith is overseeing what began as two entirely separate cases: the mishandling of classified records at Mar-a-Lago and the effort to influence the 2020 election that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
But several Trump-world figures straddle both events, providing prosecutors with what experts say is a potent opportunity to advance both investigations. Alex Cannon, Christina Bobb, and Kash Patel played different roles in the two sagas, but each has been contacted by the Justice Department in the documents dispute and has also been called in by the special House committee, now disbanded, that investigated the Jan. 6 riot.
➤ CONGRESS
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said ties between the U.S. and India are a “crucial counterweight to outcompete China” as he led a congressional delegation to New Delhi that met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “India is one of the leading powers of the world and a strong U.S.-India relationship is a must for democracy, technology advancement, and a strong world economy,” Schumer said in a statement. Among the countries’ shared strategic interests, he listed “outcompeting China, combating climate change, increasing trade and deepening bonds between our two countries.”
He was joined on the trip by fellow Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden (Ore.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Mark Warner (Va.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), among others. Modi said that it was “wonderful” to meet with the delegation and expressed appreciation for bipartisan congressional support on “deepening India-US ties anchored in shared democratic values and strong people-to-people ties.”
Schumer’s trip and comments about out-competing Beijing come amid heightened U.S.-China tensions; the Biden administration has made out-competing China a priority, emphasizing the importance of strengthening international alliances to make that happen (The Hill).
Meanwhile, a House delegation met with the head of Taiwan’s legislature on Monday as part of a five-day visit to the self-ruled island. The delegation, which arrived Sunday, includes Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), and is expected to meet President Tsai Ing-wen as well as business leaders. On Monday, they held talks with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s founder Morris Chang, considered the father of the island’s chip industry (ABC News).
“Our efforts to come here are in no way provocative of China, but consistent with the president’s foreign policy that recognizes the importance of the relationship like Taiwan, while still seeking ultimately, peace in the region,” Khanna said.
▪ Bloomberg News: Republican delegation led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) to meet with the president of the United Arab Emirates.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has given Fox News host Tucker Carlson exclusive access to 41,000 hours of Capitol surveillance footage from the Jan. 6 riot, Axios reports. Excerpts will begin airing in the coming weeks on programs hosted by Carlson, who has repeatedly questioned official accounts of Jan. 6, downplaying the insurrection as “vandalism.” Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the former chairman of the select committee investigating the insurrection, on Monday criticized McCarthy for the decision.
“When the Select Committee obtained access to U.S. Capitol Police video footage, it was treated with great sensitivity given concerns about the security of lawmakers, staff, and the Capitol complex,” Thompson said in a statement. “If Speaker McCarthy has indeed granted Tucker Carlson — a Fox host who routinely spreads misinformation and Putin’s poisonous propaganda — and his producers access to this sensitive footage, he owes the American people an explanation of why he has done so and what steps he has taken to address the significant security concerns at stake.”
The New Republic: Why Is the most powerful member of the House handing over Jan. 6 footage to Tucker Carlson?
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
➤ INTERNATIONAL
A strong earthquake and its aftershocks struck southern Turkey and Syria on Monday, causing buildings to collapse and killing at least eight people. The quake came just weeks after the region was devastated earlier this month by its worst seismic event in decades — which killed more than 47,000 people and damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes. The new 6.4 magnitude earthquake shook the southern Turkish province of Hatay just after 8 p.m. local time, according to Turkey’s disaster management agency AFAD (Reuters and The Wall Street Journal).
Blinken on Sunday visited Turkey, touring earthquake damage by helicopter and U.S. military relief efforts at the Incirlik Air Base near Adana before announcing another $100 million in American aid to supplement the already-sent elite search-and-rescue teams, heavy equipment, $85 million in humanitarian aid and at least another $80 million in private donations. When it was first planned, Blinken’s trip promised to be a difficult, even contentious diplomatic visit, as Washington and Ankara have been at odds on several important issues — from Turkey’s ties to Russia to its refusal to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian drift. But the U.S.’s aid, as well as promises of support, have served to smooth over some of the more difficult parts of the countries’ relationship (The New York Times).
Nuclear inspectors in Iran have reportedly discovered uranium in the country that has been enriched to 84 percent purity — just below the level needed to develop nuclear weapons. Bloomberg News reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is investigating how Iran managed to enrich uranium to that level, which the report says is the highest level found by inspectors to date. To create a nuclear weapon, uranium must be enriched to at least 90 percent. A nuclear official in Iran denied the claim that the country had enriched uranium above 60 percent purity “so far,” and said that the claim was “a smear and a distortion of the fact.”
“We are in close contact with our partners following reports that Iran may have enriched uranium to levels over 80 percent,” a senior European diplomat told The Wall Street Journal. “If confirmed this would be an unprecedented and extremely grave development.”
OPINION
■ Jimmy Carter’s presidency was not what you think, by Kai Bird, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3xEamvM
■ Parsing Russian support for Putin’s war, by Ilan Berman, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3SirTmD
WHERE AND WHEN
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The House will hold a pro forma session at noon.
The Senate meets in a pro forma session at 11 a.m.
The president is in Warsaw, Poland, where he meets today with President Andrzej Duda at 1:30 p.m. CET. The president will deliver a speech at 5:30 p.m. CET about Ukraine and allied support for the Ukrainian people and NATO, speaking from Warsaw’s Castle Gardens.
Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public events.
The secretary of State is in Athens where he kicked off the U.S.-Greece Strategic Dialogue and met with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias. Blinken held a joint press conference with Dendias and met with Greek opposition leader Alexis Tsipras. The secretary this afternoon will tour ancient Athens with Greek Minister of Culture and Sports Lina Mendoni and plans to meet with Greek earthquake rescue workers, accompanied by Dendias and Minister for the Climate Crisis and Civil Protection Christos Stylianides. Blinken at 2:30 p.m. local time will join a ribbon-cutting ceremony with Dendias, followed by greetings with employees and families of the U.S. embassy in Athens.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Bengaluru, India, to participate in the Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.
Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations at 10 a.m. ET and participate in a moderated conversation about sanctions against Russia. He will preview “additional steps the sanctions coalition will take” to counter evasion of restrictions aimed at Russia.
The Supreme Court at 10 a.m. will hear oral arguments in Reynaldo Gonzales et. al. v. Google LLC (SCOTUS blog and The Hill).
ELSEWHERE
➤ SPORTS
🏀 After being detained for 10 months in Russia, Brittney Griner fulfilled the promise she made to play for the Phoenix Mercury again in the 2023 season. Griner, a 32-year-old free agent, signed a one-year contract with the Mercury on Saturday, ESPN reports. She’ll return to the team that drafted her first overall in 2013 for a 10th season.
In addition to her career in the U.S., Griner played professional basketball in Russia. She was arrested at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport in February 2022 after Russian authorities said she was carrying vape canisters with cannabis oil. The State Department declared Griner to be “wrongfully detained.” After months of strained negotiations, Griner was released from Russian prison on Dec. 8 during a prisoner swap in which the WNBA star was exchanged in the United Arab Emirates for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.
⛳ Tiger Woods played his best golf over the weekend since the car crash in February 2021 that threatened to end his career. He finished tied-45th at the Genesis Invitational in his first competitive outing since The Open Championship in July 2022. The 15-time major winner has played sparingly since sustaining serious leg injuries in the crash. Following his final round, Woods said his goal from now on is to play the four majors every year, but he doesn’t expect “to play too much more than that” (CNN).
“My body and my leg and my back just won’t allow me to play much more than that anymore,” he told CBS. “So that was my goal last year and I was able to play three of the four, and this year, I can hopefully play all four. That is going to be my schedule going forward because of all of the limitations I have.”
➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH
⚕️In a January study from the American Nurses Foundation 57 percent of 12,581 surveyed nurses said they had felt “exhausted” over the past two weeks, and 43 percent said they felt “burned out.” Just 20 percent said they felt valued. While burnout has always been a part of nursing, an effect of long working hours in physically and often emotionally taxing environments, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated those factors and added some of its own: understaffing, a rise in violence and hostility toward health care workers over masking mandates and an increase in deaths.
“Burnout and our current issues have been going on for decades,” said Jennifer Mensik Kennedy, the president of the American Nurses Association, the umbrella group for the foundation. “So what did we learn from the last couple of years? That we need to make sure that we implement programs and processes to decrease the burnout and to improve the work environment. Because Covid is not the last pandemic, or the last major issue to happen.”
But for some, those changes may not come soon enough, as 43 percent of those surveyed said they were at least thinking about switching jobs (The New York Times).
▪ The New York Times: A fraught new frontier in telehealth: Ketamine can be mind altering and getting it has become much easier.
😴 Do you ever fall asleep mid-conversation? Abruptly wake up feeling like you’re gasping? Disturb your partner with your snores? All may be signs of sleep apnea — a disorder in which the throat muscles relax and block the airway, causing breathing to temporarily stop multiple times during sleep — and getting diagnosis is critical because it’s the first step toward treatment, and better sleep (The Washington Post).
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Why the COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. is still rising. The pandemic is less risky for most people, but America still sees hundreds of deaths daily.
Information about the availability of COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots can be found at Vaccines.gov.
Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,117,564. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,838 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)
THE CLOSER
And finally … Biden is not the only U.S. president who has traveled to dangerous war zones and battlefields while serving as commander in chief. Former President Obama surreptitiously flew to Kabul in Afghanistan in 2012 to mark the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death.
In 2003, former President George W. Bush flew secretly to Iraq to meet with troops and share a Thanksgiving meal.
In 1952, former President Eisenhower arrived in Korea and spent three days surveying troops there. To mask the outset of the trip for security reasons, the White House created the impression that Ike was in the country by unveiling Cabinet appointments from the president’s home.
▪ Business Insider: Here are five presidents in addition to Biden who knew how to pull off secret trips.
Stay Engaged
We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends! | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union and Israel on Monday held high-level talks for the first time in a decade, with the Europeans keen to press Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on how to put a two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinians into place.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell welcomed the recent support from Lapid — who took part in Monday’s talks by videoconference — for an end to the conflict based on an Israeli and Palestinian state living peacefully side by side.“This is also what we want to push for. We want the resumption of a political process that can lead to a two-state solution and a comprehensive regional peace,” Borrell said. “We have to explore how we can put this into practice.”“It’s better to sit and discuss frankly, than to avoid any contact. Certainly we disagree. Certainly we express concern, but I think it’s more positive to sit and discuss,” Borrell told reporters in Brussels. It’s the first time the two sides have held an “Association Council” since July 2012.However, there is no short-term prospect for peace.Israel’s military occupation of the West Bank is now in its 55th year. The last real peace talks ended in 2009, and critics say growing Israeli settlements in the West Bank and elsewhere undermine any hopes for a two-state solution. The Palestinians seek all of the West Bank along with Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, controlled by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, for a future state.At the U.N. General Assembly last month, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that “our confidence in achieving a peace based on justice and international law is waning, due to the Israeli occupation policies.”Speaking a day after Lapid, Abbas delivered a pessimistic assessment of diplomacy, saying a “frantic campaign to confiscate our lands” persisted in the generations-long dispute, while the military “are killing the Palestinian people in broad daylight” with impunity. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSummaryU.N. watchdog to visit Ukraine reactor complex this weekIAEA agency chief Grossi heading missionRussian strikes kill eight civilians in Donetsk -governorKYIV, Aug 29 (Reuters) - A team from the U.N. nuclear watchdog headed on Monday to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the agency's chief said, as Russia and Ukraine traded accusations of shelling in its vicinity, fuelling fears of a radiation disaster.Captured by Russian troops in March but run by Ukrainian staff, Zaporizhzhia has been a hotspot in a conflict that has settled into a war of attrition fought mainly in Ukraine's east and south six months after Russia launched its invasion."We must protect the safety and security of Ukraine's and Europe's biggest nuclear facility," Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in a post on Twitter. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAn IAEA team he was leading will reach the plant on the Dnipro river near front lines in southern Ukraine later this week, Grossi said, without specifying the day of their expected arrival.The IAEA tweeted separately that the mission would assess physical damage, evaluate the conditions in which staff are working at the plant and "determine functionality of safety & security systems". It would also "perform urgent safeguards activities", a reference to keeping track of nuclear material.The United Nations and Ukraine have called for a withdrawal of military equipment and personnel from the nuclear complex, Europe's largest, to ensure it is not a target. read more The two sides have for days exchanged accusations of courting disaster with their attacks.With fears mounting of a nuclear accident in a country still haunted by the 1986 Chornobyl disaster, Zaporizhzhia authorities are handing out iodine tablets and teaching residents how to use them in case of a radiation leak.'BLACKMAIL'Russian forces fired at Enerhodar, the city where the plant is located, the chief of staff of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said late on Sunday on his Telegram channel alongside a video of firefighters dousing burning cars."They provoke and try to blackmail the world," Andriy Yermak said.Ukraine's military earlier reported shelling of nine more towns on the opposite side of the Dnipro river.Russia's defence ministry reported more Ukrainian shelling at the plant over the weekend. Nine shells fired by the Ukrainian artillery landed in the plant's grounds, Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said."At present, full-time technical personnel are monitoring the technical condition of the nuclear plant and ensuring its operation. The radiation situation in the area of the nuclear power plant remains normal," he said in a statement.The Russian state news agency cited authorities as saying they had downed a Ukrainian drone which planned to attack the nuclear-waste storage facility at the plant.Two of the plant's reactors were cut off from the electrical grid last week due to shelling. read more Overview of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and fires, in Enerhodar in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, August 24, 2022. European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery/Handout via REUTERS Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom said it had no new information about attacks on the plant and Reuters could not verify the accounts.The U.S. State Department said on Sunday that Russia did not want to acknowledge the grave radiological risk at the plant and had blocked a draft agreement on nuclear non-proliferation because it mentioned such risk. read more 'ANSWER FOR ATTACKS'In the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, Russian forces shelled military and civilian infrastructure near Bakhmut, Shumy, Yakovlivka, Zaytsevo, and Kodema, Ukraine's military said early on Monday.Russian strikes killed eight civilians in Donetsk province on Sunday, its governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.Russia denies targeting civilians.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a video address late on Sunday, vowed "the occupiers will feel their consequences - in the further actions of our defenders"."No terrorist will be left without an answer for attacks on our cities. Zaporizhzhia, Orykhiv, Kharkiv, Donbas - they will receive an answer for all of them," he added.Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it called a "special military operation" to demilitarise its southern neighbour. Ukraine, which won independence when the Russian-dominated Soviet Union broke up in 1991, and its Western allies have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for a war of conquest.The invasion of Ukraine has touched off Europe's most devastating conflict since World War Two.Thousands of people have been killed, millions displaced and cities blasted to ruins. The war has also threatened the global economy with an energy and food supply crisis.The regional governor has said Russian shelling has displaced more civilians in the east, where three quarters of the population has fled front-line Donetsk province, which comprises part of the wider Donbas region.The United States and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia for its invasion and sent billions of dollars in security assistance to the Ukrainian government.Russia has said sanctions will never make it change its position and Western arms supplies only drag out the conflict.Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will travel to Sweden and the Czech Republic this week and push for more sanctions on Russia, including an EU-wide visa ban for Russians.European Union foreign ministers meeting this week are unlikely to unanimously back a visa ban on all Russians, EU foreign policy chief told Austria's ORF TV. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Max Hunder and Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv and Reuters bureaus; Writing by Himani Sarkar and Gareth Jones; Editing by Robert Birsel and Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
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MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The Philippines said Thursday it was allowing U.S. forces to broaden their footprint in the Southeast Asian nation, the latest Biden administration move bolstering an arc of military alliances in the Indo-Pacific to better counter China, including in any future confrontation over Taiwan.
Thursday’s agreement, which gives U.S. forces access to four more military camps, was announced during a visit by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. He has led efforts to strengthen America’s security alliances in Asia in the face of China’s increasing assertiveness toward Taiwan and territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
READ MORE: China accuses U.S. of abusing technology export controls
“It’s a big deal,” Austin said at a news conference while noting the agreement did not mean the re-establishment of permanent American bases in the Philippines.
In a televised news conference with his Philippine counterpart, Carlito Galvez Jr., Austin gave assurances of U.S. military support and said the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which obligates the U.S. and the Philippines to help defend each other in major conflicts, “applies to armed attacks on either of our armed forces, public vessels or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea.”
“We discussed concrete actions to address destabilizing activities in the waters,” Austin said. “This is part of our effort to modernize our alliance, and these efforts are especially important as the People’s Republic of China continues to advance its illegitimate claims in the West Philippine Sea.”
American leaders have long sought to reorient U.S. foreign policy to better reflect the rise of China as a significant military and economic competitor, as well as to better deal with the lasting threat from North Korea.
The tensions between China and Taiwan will be high on the agenda next week when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to meet with China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang.
China claims the self-ruled island as its own territory — to be taken by force if necessary — and Beijing has sent warships, bombers, fighter jets and support aircraft into airspace near Taiwan on a near-daily basis, sparking concerns of a potential blockade or military action.
The announcement from the Philippines follows a U.S.-Japan declaration on Jan. 11 that those two countries’ militaries would be updating and strengthening their defense posture, as well as other earlier pledges of greater military cooperation from Indo-Pacific partners stretching as far south as Australia.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning responded Thursday by accusing the United States of pursuing “its selfish agenda.”
“The U.S. has adhered to a Cold War zero-sum mentality and strengthened military deployment in the region,” Mao told reporters at a daily briefing. “This is an act that escalates tensions in the region and endangers regional peace and stability.”
READ MORE: During trip, Yellen pushes for China to address Zambia’s heavy debt burden
U.S. and Philippine officials also said that “substantial” progress has been made in projects at five Philippine military bases, where U.S. military personnel were earlier granted access by Filipino officials. Construction of American facilities at those bases has been underway for years but has been hampered by unspecified local issues.
China and the Philippines, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, have been locked in increasingly tense territorial disputes over the busy and resource-rich South China Sea. Washington lays no claims to the strategic waters but has deployed its warships and fighter and surveillance aircraft for patrols that it says promote freedom of navigation and the rule of law but have infuriated Beijing.
Austin thanked President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whom he briefly met in Manila, for allowing the U.S. military to broaden its presence in the Philippines, Washington’s oldest treaty ally in Asia.
“I have always said that it seems to me that the future of the Philippines and for that matter the Asia-Pacific will always have to involve the United States simply because those partnerships are so strong,” Marcos told Austin.
Galvez said there was a need for more consultations, including with local officials in provinces where visiting U.S. forces would establish a presence in Philippine military camps.
A few dozen leftist activities held a noisy protest Thursday and set a mock U.S. flag ablaze outside the main military camp where Austin held talks with his Philippine counterpart. While the two countries are allies, leftist groups and nationalists have resented and often protested boisterously against the U.S. military presence in this former American colony.
The country used to host two of the largest U.S. Navy and Air Force bases outside the American mainland. The bases were shut down in the early 1990s after the Philippine Senate rejected an extension, but American forces later returned for large-scale combat exercises with Filipino troops.
The Philippine Constitution prohibits the permanent basing of foreign troops and their involvement in local combat. The countries’ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement allows visiting American forces to stay indefinitely in rotating batches in barracks and other buildings they construct within designated Philippine camps with their defense equipment, except nuclear weapons.
WATCH: U.S. and Japan boost cooperation as Marines adapt controversial plan to counter China
Philippine military and defense officials said in November the U.S. had sought access to five more local military camps mostly in the northern Philippine region of Luzon.
Two of the camps where the U.S. wanted to gain access are in Cagayan province near Luzon island’s northern tip, across a sea border from Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait and southern China. Other camps that would host American forces are along the country’s western coast, including in the provinces of Palawan and Zambales, which face the disputed South China Sea.
“The Philippine-US alliance has stood the test of time and remains ironclad,” the allies said in their statement. “We look forward to the opportunities these new sites will create to expand our cooperation together.”
Austin is the latest high-ranking American official to travel to the Philippines after Vice President Kamala Harris visited in November, in a sign of warming ties after a strained period under Marcos’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.
Duterte had nurtured cozy ties with China and Russia and at one point threatened to sever relations with Washington, eject American forces and abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement that allows thousands of American forces to come each year for large-scale combat exercises.
“I am confident that we will continue to work together to defend our shared values of freedom, democracy and human dignity,” Austin said. “As you heard me say before, the United States and the Philippines are more than just allies. We’re family.”
Knickmeyer reported from Washington. Associated Press journalists Joeal Calupitan in Manila, the Philippines, and Kiko Rosario in Bangkok, Thailand, contributed to this report.
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Beijing is planning to reorient its foreign policy away from Moscow fearing a decline in Russia's economic and political clout as a direct result of its disastrous invasion of Ukraine and Putin's eventual downfall, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing anonymous Chinese officials and regional experts.
Though Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged to strengthen bilateral ties during a video conference in late December, sources told the FT that mistrust towards the Russian leader is growing among the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party.
“The invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldn’t simply follow Russia,” the FT quoted one anonymous Chinese official as saying. “Putin is crazy.”
China, according to the outlet’s sources and contrary to the widely accepted version of events, was not aware of the Kremlin’s plan to launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine last year and expected a limited military operation at most. During a meeting on Feb. 4, Putin reportedly informed Xi that Russia “would not rule out taking whatever measures possible if eastern Ukrainian separatists attack Russian territory and cause humanitarian disasters.”
Beijing’s failure to obtain accurate intelligence on Putin's plans left it unprepared for the invasion and resulted in the demotion of China’s then-vice-minister of foreign affairs and top Russia expert Le Yucheng, according to the FT.
Anonymous Chinese officials told the outlet they believed the Kremlin’s goals in Ukraine were doomed to failure and that Russia would emerge from the conflict as a “minor power.”
However, Beijing still has much to gain from its relationship with the Kremlin in the short term, seeing its closeness to Putin as a useful bargaining chip in its relationship with Europe, the FT sources said.
China is also hoping to profit from the post-war reconstruction boom in Ukraine, officials said. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.“The government took the decision to organise assistance for the departure of residents of the [Kherson] region to other regions of the country,” Khusnullin said.The development followed a public request on the social media platform Telegram by Vladimir Saldo, a former mayor of the port city, who was installed in April by the Russian forces as head of the wider Kherson region.Saldo, who Ukrainian prosecutors have charged with treason, had specifically called on Vladimir Putin to help those who wished to flee the fighting, claiming it was Ukrainian attacks imperilling the lives of locals.Saldo, who was mayor of Kherson city between 2002 and 2012, said: “I want to ask you [the Russian leadership] for help in organising such work. We, residents of the Kherson region, certainly know that Russia does not abandon its own, and Russia always lends a shoulder where it is difficult.”MapOfficials in Kyiv have spoken of their hopes of reaching the regional capital of Kherson by Christmas despite Putin’s recent announcement that the oblast had been “annexed” into Russia alongside Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk, a move condemned around the world as illegal.In New York, three-quarters of the 193-member UN general assembly – 143 countries – voted on Wednesday in favour of a resolution condemning Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of the four partially occupied regions.Only four countries joined Russia in voting against the resolution: Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus. Thirty-five countries abstained from the vote, including Russia’s strategic partner China, while the rest did not vote.The city of Kherson was one of the first to fall to Russia after the invasion on 24 February and is a crucial strategic and symbolic target for Ukraine’s government. Ukrainian forces said on Wednesday they had successfully retaken five settlements in the north-east of the Kherson region as part of the counterattack launched in August. The fighting remains hard, however.British intelligence said that after retreating about 12 miles in the north of Kherson in early October, Russian forces were probably attempting to consolidate a new frontline west of the village of Mylove which lies further north-east up the Dnieper River from Kherson city.Overnight, the city of Mykolaiv, 60 miles north-west of Kherson city, was once again pummelled by Russian missiles, with one strike on a five-storey apartment block killing a 31-year-old man and an 80-year-old woman. Five further people were said to still be under rubble.The Mykolaiv regional governor, Vitaliy Kim, said an 11-year-old boy was pulled from the rubble after six hours and rescue teams were searching for seven more people.Ukrainian officials said on Thursday that Iranians in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine were training Russians in how to use the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone, which can conduct air-to-surface attacks, electronic warfare and targeting. Their deployment may indicate the Russian military is running out of its own drones.Ukraine’s air force command said air defence shot down six Iranian drones from over the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions during the night.Meanwhile, claims from Moscow that Ukraine had hit a residential building in the southern Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border were denied in Kyiv.Mykhaylo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser, claimed Russian forces had tried to shell Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, on the border “but something went wrong”.With Russia struggling to relaunch its war effort, the issue of whether the Kremlin could react by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine brought a strong response in Brussels.At the opening of a diplomacy academy in Brussels, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, warned Putin of his army’s “annihilation”, despite the French president, Emmanuel Macron, saying on Wednesday that his country would not use its nuclear arsenal in such circumstances.Borrell, a former Spanish foreign minister, said: “Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the member states, and the United States and Nato are not bluffing either. Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian army will be annihilated.” | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
China's top diplomat today said Beijing will 'strengthen and deepen' its ties with Russia 'no matter how the international situation changes' amid Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Wang Yi said China remains 'committed' to 'preserve' its relations with Russia during a meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.
It comes as the Kremlin said Wang will meet Vladimir Putin later today - after the US warned Beijing against providing material support to Russia's invasion.
At a meeting with Lavrov earlier on Wednesday, Wang said that he looked forward to clinching new agreements during his visit to Moscow.
'I am ready to exchange views with you, my dear friend, on issues of mutual interest, and I look forward to reaching new agreements,' Wang said through an interpreter.
'No matter how the international situation changes, China has been and remains committed, together with Russia, to make efforts to preserve the positive trend in the development of relations between major powers,' Wang said.
Wang said he would work to 'strengthen and deepen' relations between Moscow and Beijing. He provided no specific details on what agreements might be reached during his visit.
Wang's visit to Moscow came after it emerged that China's President Xi Jinping is preparing to visit the city himself for a summit with Putin in the next couple of months, sources familiar with the plan said.
During the visit, Xi is expected to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons and push the Kremlin towards having peace talks with Ukraine - nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Preparations for the trip at at an early stage and the timing has not been finalised, the Wall Street Journal said, adding that Xi could visit in April or in early May, when Russia celebrates its Second World War victory over Hitler's Germany.
Meanwhile, Putin announced yesterday that Russia was suspending its participation in a landmark nuclear arms treaty with the United States.
Putin also said Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, a move that would end a global ban on such tests in place since the Cold War era.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described Moscow's decision as 'really unfortunate and very irresponsible.'
'We'll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does,' he said while visiting Greece.
It was the second time in recent days the Ukraine war showed it could spread into perilous new terrain, after Blinken told China at the weekend that it would be a 'serious problem' if Beijing provided arms and ammunition to Russia.
Wang is expected to discuss Xi's trip to Russia while he is in Moscow, sources familiar with the summit planning said.
The Chinese diplomat yesterday told one of Putin's closest allies that Beijing's relationship with Moscow was 'rock solid' and would withstand any test in a changing international situation.
China's 'no limits' partnership with Russia has come under scrutiny in the West after the United States said it was concerned that Beijing might be considering supplying weapons to Russia a year since the invasion of Ukraine.
At a meeting in Moscow, Wang Yi told Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council, that he looked forward to discussions about security.
'Chinese-Russian relations are mature in character: they are rock solid and will withstand any test in a changing international situation,' Wang told 'Comrade' Patrushev through a Russian interpreter in remarks aired on state television.
Wang said Russia and China should work out new joint steps to ensure the security of both countries, without elaborating.
Patrushev, who is close to Putin, told 'Comrade' Wang that Beijing was a top priority for Russian foreign policy and that the two countries must stick together against the West.
'In the context of a campaign that is being waged by the collective West to contain both Russia and China, the further deepening of Russian-Chinese cooperation and interaction in the international arena is of particular importance,' RIA cited Patrushev.
Xi has stood by Putin, resisting Western pressure to isolate Russia. Indeed, Chinese-Russian trade has soared since the invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has sold Asian powers including China greater volumes of oil.
Putin and Xi share a broad world view which sees the West as decadent and in decline just as China challenges U.S. supremacy in everything from technology to espionage and military power.
Beijing has refused to condemn Russia's invasion or atrocities against civilians in Ukraine while strongly criticizing Western economic sanctions on Moscow. At the end of last year, Russia and China held joint naval drills in the East China Sea.
The United States casts China and Russia as the two biggest nation-state threats to its security. China is viewed by Washington as the gravest long-term 'strategic competitor' and Russia as an 'acute threat'.
'I want to confirm our continued support for Beijing over the issues of Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong,' Patrushev said.
Meanwhile, Putin yesterday suspended Moscow's participation in the New START nuclear Treaty. The pact, signed in 2010 by the U.S. and Russia, caps the number of long-range nuclear warheads the two sides can deploy and limits the use of missiles that can carry atomic weapons.
The despot claimed the West was plotting to achieve 'limitless power' and vowed to 'systematically' continue with the offensive in Ukraine during an explosive state of the union address in Russia's parliament.
He told lawmakers he was addressing them 'at a time which we all know is a difficult, watershed moment for our country, a time of cardinal, irreversible changes around the world, the most important historic events that will shape the future of our country and our people'.
He added: 'The responsibility for fuelling the Ukrainian conflict, for its escalation, for the number of victims... lies completely with Western elites.'
Kyiv quickly hit back at the Russian leader, with presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak saying the speech demonstrated the 'hopelessness of [Putin's] position' and that he was 'in a completely different reality'. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
The following is a transcript of an interview with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that's scheduled to air Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023, on "Face the Nation."
MARGARET BRENNAN: We go now to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is in Germany attending the Munich Security Conference. Mr. Secretary, I know you just met with your Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, who has publicly said the U.S. response to the spy balloon was 'absurd,' 'hysterical,' and an 'effort to divert attention away from domestic problems.' Was he that dismissive to you in private?
SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN: Margaret, I don't want to characterize what he said, I can tell you what I said. I made very clear to him that China sending a surveillance balloon over the United States, in violation of our sovereignty, in violation of international law, was unacceptable, and must never happen again. We also had an opportunity to talk about what's happening here in Munich, the focus of the conversation of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, and concerns that we have the China's considering providing lethal support to Russia, in its efforts in Ukraine. And I was able to share with him, as President Biden had shared with President Xi, the serious consequences that would have for our relationship. Finally, it was important for me to underscore that we believe having lines of communication, engaging in direct diplomacy, is very important. We have a responsibility to manage our relationship in a responsible manner. That's part of what this evening was about.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Does that mean their defense minister will pick up the next phone call from Secretary Austin instead of refusing it?
SEC. BLINKEN: Well, it's one of the things that we talked about. The importance of having lines of communication, including military-to-military lines of communication. It's vital to making sure that there aren't miscommunications, misunderstandings, especially if you've got a crisis or some other situation on your hands. And so I tried to impress upon my Chinese counterpart the importance of having those contacts, including military-to-military.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A senior Pentagon official said last week that President Xi Jinping was caught by surprise by the surveillance balloon and that he doesn't trust his own military. Did the left and right hand of the Chinese government not know what was going on?
SEC. BLINKEN: I can't speak to that, Margaret. But what I can- what I can tell you is this. It doesn't matter in the sense that China is responsible for this action. And ultimately, as the leader of the country, President Xi is responsible. It's one of the reasons it was important for me on behalf of President Biden to share directly with the most senior Chinese foreign policy official, the very clear determination that this must not happen again.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, if Colin Kahl, this Pentagon officials' comments are accurate, that would raise the risk of miscalculation if China doesn't have control over its own military. That's why I wanted you to clarify that.
SEC. BLINKEN: So Margaret, I can't again- I can't speak to the- the Chinese views on this. I can only imagine that China must be in the process of trying to draw its own lessons from this incident. And of course, we're not the only- the only ones concerned, Chinese use these surveillance balloons over more than 40 countries across five continents. So one of the things I'm hearing here in Munich, is real concern about the surveillance balloon program. I suspect the fact that it's been exposed by us is going to have to cause China to take another look at this.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I'm going to come back to what you mentioned in terms of providing support to Russia. There is open-source reporting that Chinese companies are providing surveillance equipment to that mercenary group, the Wagner group fighting in Ukraine. Does the U.S. consider this to be providing military support to Russia?
SEC. BLINKEN: We've been concerned from day one about- about that possibility. In fact, if you go back to the very first conversations that President Biden and President Xi had about Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, just a couple of weeks into the war, President Biden shared with with President Xi our deep concern about the possibility China would provide lethal support to Russia to- to Russia in this effort, as well as engaged in the systematic evasion of sanctions. And the reason for that concern was just weeks before the aggression, you'll remember that President Xi and President Putin had a meeting in which they just talked about a partnership with no limits. And we were concerned that among those- among the lack of limits would be Chinese support for Russia in the war. We've been watching this very closely. To date, we have seen Chinese companies and of course, in China, there's really no distinction between private companies and the state. We have seen them provide non-lethal support to Russia for use in Ukraine. The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they're considering providing lethal support, and we've made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Lethal support, what would that entail? What do you think--
SEC. BLINKEN: Weapons. Weapons.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That's ammunition, that's--
SEC. BLINKEN: Primarily weapons.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Primarily--
SEC. BLINKEN: There's a whole gamut of things that- that fit in that category, everything from ammunition to the weapons themselves.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Iran is also accused of providing more weaponry to Russia here. So they are--
SEC. BLINKEN: That's right. We've seen Iran provide--
MARGARET BRENNAN: They are building an alliance.
SEC. BLINKEN: We've seen Iran provide drones that Russia is using in Ukraine to attack civilian infrastructure, to kill civilians. This is something that's been going on for months. We've been working to expose that, to take action against it, to sanction it. There's an increasingly noxious relationship between Russia and Iran. And it's actually a two way street. Not only is Iran providing this- this equipment to Russia, but Russia is also providing military equipment to Iran, including, it looks like, sophisticated fighter planes. That's something that looks like it may be happening, which would make Iran an even greater threat, if it acquires that technology. So this is something that we've been talking about with allies and partners around the world. That relationship is a growing concern.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And that would make them party to this conflict directly. In other words, this isn't just a war between Russia and Ukraine.
SEC. BLINKEN: Well, what we've seen with Iran is that the malicious activities that it's engaged in, through - throughout the region, and it's been engaged in for years, we now see that expanding out to other parts of the world, and particularly in this case, to Russia's war against Ukraine. And that's, of course, a real concern. We've also seen them targeting opponents of the regime, including in the United States, as you know, some individuals were arrested just a short while ago for trying to assassinate an Iranian journalist in New York, who opposes the regime.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So from your conversation with your Chinese counterpart, do I understand that usually, when you say it's a direct conversation, that's "diplo-speak" for it didn't go very well? It was pretty heated? Or did you make plans to visit Beijing in the near future?
SEC. BLINKEN: It's "diplo-speak" for saying it was very important to speak very clearly, very directly, about the deep concerns we have. The concerns that we have about this surveillance balloon, and the entire program, the concerns we have about the possibility that China will provide lethal material support to Russia and its war effort against Ukraine--
MARGARET BRENNAN: But there was no apology?
SEC. BLINKEN: And it's important that- again, don't want to characterize what they said, although it's safe to say there was no apology. But again, it's also important, and this is why it was also useful to have this meeting this evening, also important to have these direct lines of communication, to make sure that- that we are talking to engage in diplomacy. We have to manage this relationship responsibly. We have to make sure that the competition that we're clearly engaged in, does not veer into conflict, into a- into a new Cold War. It's not in our interest, I won't speak to theirs, but it's not in ours. But at the same time, we will very resolutely stand up for our interests. We will resolutely stand up for our values. That's what we've been doing over the last couple of years and that's what we'll continue to do.
MARGARET BRENNAN: In terms of Russia's war, 97% of its military is already engaged in this fight in Ukraine, according to the UK, but they have substantial airpower they haven't tapped into yet. Do you see evidence that Russia is preparing an aerial attack on Ukraine?
SEC. BLINKEN: Russia's losses have been horrific. You're right that 90- 97 percent or so of their ground forces have been engaged in this war, which is extraordinary. And the losses to date have been horrific. Public figures suggest 200,000 casualties, that is a combination of those killed, and those wounded. The destruction of their war machine itself, the tanks, the armored vehicles, the missile launchers, etc, has also been extensive. In terms of airpower, they tried some of this early on. Ukraine's air defenses were actually successful in shooting down a lot of Russian aircraft. So they backed off of using aircraft. That doesn't mean that they won't try to do that going forward. But at least to date, Ukraine has had air defenses that have allowed it to pose such a threat to Russian aircraft that they haven't really been flying.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So do you see a change in the U.S. position to greenlight other countries to provide fighter jets to Ukraine? Do you expect any policy change when President Biden visits Poland in the days to come?
SEC. BLINKEN: Margaret, what we're focused on is trying to the best of our ability to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it, to deal with the challenge it faces in the moment. And all along, we've been very clear that we shouldn't fixate or focus on any particular weapons system, because it's not just the weapon system. You've got to make sure that the Ukrainians are trained to use it, you've got to make sure they have the capacity to maintain it, because if they're not trained to use it, it's not going to do them a lot of good. If they can't maintain it and it falls apart in a week, it's not going to do them a lot of good. And so, some of these weapons systems of one kind or another, are highly sophisticated, things that they haven't used in the past, we've got to make sure that- that they have the capacity to use them and use them effectively--
MARGARET BRENNAN: You're talking about U.S. jets there, it sounds like, versus- versus the Soviet-era jets--
SEC. BLINKEN: Well, I'm talking about any- any--
MARGARET BRENNAN: that Poland has, for example, that could be transferred, that they've offered to transfer--
SEC. BLINKEN: I'm talking about any sophisticated piece of military equipment that the Ukrainians haven't had practice using in the past. But the other thing is this, we're also very focused on the here and now and the months to come. Right now, what's going on is this. The Russians are engaged in an offensive along the eastern front, and they're putting a huge amount into it and they are suffering terribly for that effort, as I said, losing a huge number of forces, using- losing a huge number of pieces of equipment. And the Ukrainians are doing everything that they can with our assistance to withstand that, and they're doing that very, very well. But in the months ahead, we fully anticipate that Ukraine will engage in its own counter offensive. And what's vitally important is that they have what they need for that counter offensive, not what they may need in a year or two years. We're working on that too, but the focus now has to be on what would they be able to use right now to defend themselves against the Russian offensive, and to engage in their own offensive to take back more of the land that was seized by Russia by force.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I'm going to ask you, lastly, about this designation of crimes against humanity that the Vice President announced. She cited horrific things like a four-year-old girl being raped by Russian soldiers, thousands of Ukrainian children being taken from their families, to say that this constitutes legally crimes against humanity. President Biden has already used the term genocide. Is the State Department working on a genocide determination?
SEC. BLINKEN: We will, as always, look at every legal possibility when it comes to going after the atrocities that Russia is committing in Ukraine. The determination that- that we made crimes against humanity that the Vice President announced today is unfortunately, starkly clear. And we've seen that almost from day one. We saw it in Bucha, when the Russian tide receded, we saw what was left in its wake, and it's horrific. And we continue to see it across the country, the fact that they're targeting civilians, targeting civilian infrastructure, so that people freeze to death, don't have the lights on.This practice that, as a parent, is almost impossible to fathom, of literally seizing Ukrainian children, sending them to Russia, sending them to centers, there are about 43 of them that we found. There was a project undertaken by Yale University with our support that has documented this, to 43 centers in Russia and some in Ukrainian territory that Russia now holds. Some of these places are closer to Alaska than they are to Ukraine. Separating them from their families and then having them adopted by Russians. This is in and of itself, horrific. It also speaks to the fact that President Putin has been trying from day one to erase Ukraine's identity, to erase its future. That's what's going on, and that too, is a crime against humanity.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Some of what you described is consistent with the statutory basis for the Genocide Convention. So I'm hearing what you're saying as you are potentially looking at that?
SEC. BLINKEN: We will look at every possible determination, but we're going to follow the facts, and we're going to follow the law. These are very serious determinations, and we will engage in them very seriously.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Secretary Blinken, thank you for your time today.
SEC. BLINKEN: Good to be with you. Thanks, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Thank you.
for more features. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
President Joe Biden finds himself far underwater with voters, facing foreign crises and increasingly scary inflation figures — all of which attract comparisons to America's 39th president, Jimmy Carter. Carter is perhaps the president most closely associated with high inflation, and thanks to a legacy that includes a stiff 1980 primary challenge and a decisive reelection loss to Ronald Reagan, he's a president to whom no White House Democrat wants to be compared. INFLATION ENDANGERS BIDEN ECONOMIC MESSAGE AHEAD OF MIDTERM ELECTIONS "High inflation and rising gas prices are economic numbers that make people nervous, which tends to bring down presidential approval ratings — all of that is similar," said Robert Strong, a political professor at Washington and Lee University. "For both of them, Russia invaded a neighboring country. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, with very big consequences. Ukraine may be bigger, but [Carter and Biden] were both surprised by those Soviet/Russian actions." Of course, any comparison of historic figures is far from perfect, and Biden is in many ways quite different than the Man from Plains. "Biden belongs to the group of presidents who are lifelong politicians, like Kennedy, Nixon, Johnson, and Bill Clinton," said Strong, who authored a book about Carter's foreign policy. "Carter belongs to a group that did significant things before embarking on a political career — Eisenhower, Reagan, or even Trump." Unfortunately for them, one key similarity the two share is low approval ratings. Carter started strong but went underwater by the spring of his second year in office, flip-flopped for the better part of 1978 and '79, then went sharply negative during the election year of 1980, drawing a primary challenger in Ted Kennedy before the loss to Reagan. Biden's polling also slipped following a honeymoon period and now sits firmly underwater, with just 39% approving per the latest data. Hence the Carter comparisons. High gas prices are also a staple of the collective memory of the 1970s, though one that largely took place under the presidencies of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Similarly, Carter inherited an inflation rate of 5% upon taking office, far above the 1.4% Biden welcomed in January 2021. Both presidents were also hounded by foreign policy troubles, with Carter marred by the Iran hostage crisis and Biden's approval slide beginning with the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Some argue that Carter deserves more credit for his economic moves, namely through his deregulating of industries ranging from railroads to beer to airlines and his naming of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who tamped down inflation but not in time for the 1980 election. JIMMY AND ROSALYNN CARTER CELEBRATE 76 YEARS OF MARRIAGE The Fed is once again hiking interest rates at a quickening pace today. Biden has promised to stay out of the agency's way but has attacked a long list of enemies for high gas prices, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, oil companies, and even locally owned gas stations. He's also vowed not to raise taxes while in office. But an early action, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, passed against unified Republican opposition, may seal the public's perception of Biden as being responsible for high inflation this time around. "That huge stimulus program is, in the light of history, going to look like a catastrophic mistake," said historian David Garrow. "This, to my mind, will be Joe [Biden] and Jay [Powell]'s soon-to-be recession." Both Carter and Biden entered the White House on the heels of controversial ex-presidents in Nixon and Donald Trump. In Carter's case, being seen as a trustworthy outsider from Georgia was a plus because Nixon had spent decades in Washington. For Biden, the same sentiment applied because he is a career politician, providing a sharp contrast to the politically inexperienced Trump. Each also had troubled family members, with Carter having brother Billy and Biden having son Hunter. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The part of Carter's legacy Biden may want to avoid most is matching the 39th president's high-profile Democratic primary challenge from Kennedy, which reflected and added to his weakness in 1980. This may already be playing out for Biden, with rivals circling and polls indicating Democrats are ready to ditch him. For Strong, who is cautious about making comparisons between any presidents, the truth is that sometimes, outside factors outweigh anything a president may do. "Carter served during a period when people were very worried about the future of the economy, which is one of the things that inflation creates," he said. "Presidents are blamed for economic numbers that they very often can't control. If they could control them, we'd have a great stock market and economic results every four years. But sometimes, people run when economies are in trouble." | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia was ready to facilitate Ukrainian grain shipments from ports along the Black Sea, but that he wants Western countries to lift their sanctions against Russian grain exports. Putin spoke in Iran after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan about a proposed plan to resume the Ukrainian exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted Ukrainian trade, and with pressures on the global food supply, the United Nations has been involved in the talks to unblock the shipments. Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, told reporters Tuesday that Guterres remained optimistic that a deal can be completed. He added that Guterres had discussed the ongoing negotiations in a phone call Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin also met Tuesday with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, signaling closer links between the two countries. “The contact with Khamenei is very important,” Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy adviser, told reporters in Moscow. “A trusting dialogue has developed between them on the most important issues on the bilateral and international agenda.” “On most issues, our positions are close or identical,” Ushakov said. As Moscow faces ongoing Western economic sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is trying to strengthen strategic ties with Iran, China and India. Iran, also facing Western economic sanctions and ongoing disputes with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program, expressed hope for closer ties with Russia. “Both our countries have good experience in countering terrorism, and this has provided much security to our region,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said after meeting with Putin. “I hope your visit to Iran will increase cooperation between our two independent countries.” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday that intelligence indicated Russia is “laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory that it controls in direct violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.” Kirby said the areas involved in plans that Russia is reviewing include Kherson, Zaporizhia, and all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. He also urged the U.S. Congress to ratify the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, saying the Biden administration wants to see the two countries “brought into the alliance as soon as possible.” Both Sweden and Finland broke with longstanding non-alliance positions to seek NATO membership as a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations gave its approval Tuesday, setting the stage for a vote in the full Senate. All of NATO’s 30 member states must approve Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance. Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on Monday for the first time since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, demonstrating in dramatic personal fashion his commitment to the country and its struggle as the war enters an uncertain new phase.
Biden arrived in Kyiv at 8 a.m. local time, according to reporters traveling with him inside Ukraine, and was greeted by the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. His motorcade arrived to the Mariinsky Palace just after 8:30 a.m. local time. He was greeted at the entrance by Zelensky and his wife, Olena Zelenska.
“Thank you for coming,” Zelensky said, shaking Biden’s hand.
“More importantly, how are the children?” Biden asked, adding: “It’s amazing to see you.”
Biden’s visit – which took place as air raid sirens could be heard ringing out around Kyiv while the two leaders walked around the city – comes at a critical moment in the 12-month conflict, with Russia preparing for an expected spring offensive and Ukraine hoping to soon retake territory. The United States and other western nations have been rushing arms, tanks and ammunition to Ukraine in the hopes of changing the trajectory of the war. By visiting in person, Biden is offering a singular image of American support for Zelensky, who has spent the past year attempting to rally the world behind his home nation and appealing for greater levels of assistance.
In joint remarks alongside Zelensky, Biden announced a half-billion dollars in assistance to Ukraine, saying the package would include more military equipment, including artillery ammunition, more javelins and Howitzers.
“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” Biden said.
Zelensky added that he and Biden spoke about “long range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine even though it wasn’t supplied before.”
A high-stakes visit
During their meeting, Biden laid out his rationale for visiting the Ukrainian capital as the war enters a second year.
“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Biden said.
“The Ukrainian people have stepped up in a way that few people ever have in the past,” he added.
Biden emphasized there was broad, bipartisan support in Washington for the Ukrainian cause.
“For all the disagreement we have in our Congress on some issues, there is significant agreement on support for Ukraine,” he said.
“It’s not just about freedom in Ukraine. … It’s about freedom of democracy at large,” he said.
Biden’s trip to Kyiv was shrouded in secrecy, a reflection of the steep security concerns. Air Force One departed Joint Base Andrews under cover of darkness at 4:15 a.m. ET on Sunday, and reporters aboard the plane were not allowed to carry their devices with them.
Biden’s public schedule didn’t reflect the trip, and White House officials repeatedly said last week that a visit to Ukraine was not in the works.
On Saturday evening, before he departed, Biden went out to dinner with his wife in Washington. He wasn’t seen in public again until arriving in Kyiv on Monday morning.
Ukraine is an active war zone where the US military has no control, making Monday’s visit different from previous presidential trips to Iraq or Afghanistan. White House officials had repeatedly ruled out a visit earlier in the year.
Biden is traveling with a relatively small entourage, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, deputy chief of staff Jen O’Malley Dillon and personal aide Annie Tomasini.
Zelensky himself traveled to Washington in December to meet Biden in the Oval Office and speak to a joint session of Congress – his first trip outside Ukraine since the war began.
The Ukrainian leader invited Biden to visit Kyiv months ago, saying he believed it was important for the US leader to see the situation up close.
“I think he’s the leader of the United States, and that’s why he should come here to see,” Zelensky said in April during an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper. As recently as last week, Zelensky said his invitation for Biden to visit Ukraine remained open, even as he acknowledged there were other means for them to speak.
“President Biden and I meet occasionally. You know that we have invited the President. I think he will be happy to visit Ukraine if he has the opportunity. That would be an important signal to support our nation,” Zelensky said on February 15.
The trip comes ahead of Biden’s planned two-day visit to Poland. The President is scheduled to be in Warsaw on Tuesday where he will meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda, the White House said Sunday.
Biden’s visit follows other world leaders’ trips
Biden has been itching to visit Ukraine for months, particularly after several of his counterparts in Europe all endured lengthy train journeys to meet with Zelensky in Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as well as former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have all made visits to the country to demonstrate their support.
Several of Biden’s top lieutenants, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, have also visited the Ukrainian capital to pledge new assistance. Senior administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns and top White House officials, visited Kyiv last month.
Even Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, paid a surprise visit on Mother’s Day last year to a small city in the far southwestern corner of Ukraine. She met with Zelenska at a former school that was converted into temporary housing for displaced Ukrainians, including 48 children.
Yet security precautions had prevented Biden from making a similar trip. When he visited Poland in April last year, the White House did not even explore the potential for a trip across the border, even though Biden said he had voiced interest.
“They will not let me – understandably, I guess – cross the border and take a look at what’s going on in Ukraine,” he said at the time.
Now, with the war nearing its one-year mark on February 24, Biden is hoping to demonstrate to the world his commitment to Ukraine, even as it remains unclear how much longer US and western resolve can last.
Asked about the significance of being in Kyiv, Biden noted it was his eighth visit to the city. “Each time more significant,” Biden said.
He added that the purpose of his visit was to convey to Zelensky that the US is “here to stay.”
“We’re not leaving,” Biden said.
US officials have privately voiced hope the massive influx of weaponry to Ukraine – which includes new vehicles, longer-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems – can help Ukraine prevail on the battlefield and put Zelensky in a stronger position to negotiate an end to the war.
But it remains unclear what parameters Zelensky might be willing to accept in any peace negotiations, and the US has steadfastly refused to define what a settlement may look like beyond stating it will be up to Zelensky to decide.
Concerns over China’s support for Russia
American officials told CNN on Saturday the US has recently begun seeing “disturbing” trends and there are signs that Beijing wants to “creep up to the line” of providing lethal military aid to Moscow without getting caught.
The officials would not describe in detail what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days.
Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.
Wang, who was named Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s top foreign policy adviser last month, is expected to arrive in Moscow this week, in the first visit to the country from a Chinese official in that role since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to China’s Foreign Ministry, Wang’s visit will provide an opportunity for China and Russia to continue to develop their strategic partnership and “exchange views” on “international and regional hotspot issues of shared interest” – a catch-all phrase often used to allude to topics including the war in Ukraine.
This is a breaking story and will be updated.
CNN’s Nectar Gan contributed to this report. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden is ready to make the case to world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly that Russia’s “naked aggression” in Ukraine is an affront to the heart of what the international body stands for as he looks to rally allies to stand firm in backing the Ukrainian resistance.
Biden is expected to speak at 10:35 a.m. ET. Watch in the player above.
Biden, during his time at the U.N. General Assembly, also planned to meet Wednesday with new British Prime Minister Liz Truss, announce a global food security initiative and press allies to meet an $18 billion target to replenish the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.
But White House officials say the crux of the president’s visit to the U.N. this year would be a full-throated condemnation of Russia as its brutal war nears the seven-month mark.
“He’ll offer a firm rebuke of Russia’s unjust war in Ukraine and make a call to the world to continue to stand against the naked aggression that we’ve seen these past several months,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in previewing the president’s address. “He will underscore the importance of strengthening the United Nations and reaffirm core tenets of its charter at a time when a permanent member of the Security Council has struck at the very heart of the charter by challenging the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
The address comes as Russian-controlled regions of eastern and southern Ukraine have announced plans to hold Kremlin-backed referendums in days ahead on becoming part of Russia and as Moscow is losing ground in the invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial mobilization to call up 300,000 reservists and accused the West of engaging in “nuclear blackmail.”
Biden is confronting no shortage of difficult issues as leaders gather this year.
In addition to the Russian war in Ukraine, European fears that a recession could be just around the corner are heightened. Administration concerns grow by the day that time is running short to revive the Iran nuclear deal and over China’s saber-rattling on Taiwan.
When he addressed last year’s General Assembly, Biden focused on broad themes of global partnership, urging world leaders to act with haste against the coronavirus, climate change and human rights abuses. And he offered assurances that his presidency marked a return of American leadership to international institutions following Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy.
But one year later, global dynamics have dramatically changed.
Stewart Patrick, senior fellow and director of the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Washington think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in an analysis that Biden’s task this year is “immense” compared to his first address to the U.N. as president.
“Last year, the U.S. leader won easy plaudits as the ‘anti-Trump,’ pledging that ‘America was back,'” Patrick said. “This year demands more. The liberal, rules-based international system is reeling, battered by Russian aggression, Chinese ambitions, authoritarian assaults, a halting pandemic recovery, quickening climate change, skepticism of the U.N.’s relevance, and gnawing doubts about American staying power.”
Beyond diplomacy, the president is also doing some politicking. This year’s gathering comes less than seven weeks before pivotal midterm elections in the United States. Shortly after arriving in Manhattan on Tuesday night, Biden spoke at a Democratic National Committee fundraiser for about 100 participants that raised nearly $2 million, and he’s set to hold another fundraiser on Thursday before heading back to Washington.
His Wednesday address comes on the heels of Ukrainian forces retaking control of large stretches of territory near Kharkiv. But even as Ukrainian forces have racked up battlefield wins, much of Europe is feeling painful blowback from economic sanctions levied against Russia. A vast reduction in Russian oil and gas has led to a sharp jump in energy prices, skyrocketing inflation and growing risk of Europe slipping into a recession.
Biden’s visit to the U.N. also comes as his administration’s efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appears stalled.
The deal brokered by the Obama administration — and scrapped by Trump in 2018 — provided billions of dollars in sanctions relief in exchange for Iran’s agreement to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to extensive international inspection.
Sullivan said no breakthrough with Iran is expected during the General Assembly but Biden would make clear in his speech that a deal can still be done “if Iran is prepared to be serious about its obligations.” He added that administration officials would be consulting with fellow signatories of the 2015 deal on the sidelines of this week’s meetings.
This year’s U.N. gathering is back to being a full-scale, in-person event after two years of curtailed activity due to the pandemic. In 2020, the in-person gathering was canceled and leaders instead delivered prerecorded speeches; last year was a mix of in-person and prerecorded speeches. Biden and first lady Jill Biden were set to host a leaders’ reception on Wednesday evening.
China’s President Xi Jinping opted not to attend this year’s U.N. gathering, but his country’s conduct and intentions will loom large during the leaders’ talks.
Last month, the U.N. human rights office raised concerns about possible “crimes against humanity” in China’s western region against Uyghurs and other largely Muslim ethnic groups. Beijing has vowed to suspend cooperation with the office and blasted what it described as a Western plot to undermine China’s rise.
Meanwhile, China’s government on Monday said Biden’s statement in a CBS “60 Minutes” interview that American forces would defend Taiwan if Beijing tried to invade the self-ruled island was a violation of U.S. commitments on the matter, but it gave no indication of possible retaliation.
The White House said after the interview that there has been no change in U.S. policy on Taiwan, which China claims as its own. That policy says Washington wants to see Taiwan’s status resolved peacefully but doesn’t say whether U.S. forces might be sent in response to a Chinese attack. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
US President Joe Biden, while speaking at the Democratic congressional campaign committee reception in Los Angeles on Saturday, described Pakistan as “one of the most dangerous nations" with holds "nuclear weapons without any cohesion." “What I think is maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world, Pakistan. Nuclear weapons without any cohesion," said White House statement quoting US President Joe Biden at the election campaign reception as quoted by news agency ANI. The remarks on Pakistan were made while Biden was talking about US foreign policy with regard to China and Vladimir Putin's Russia. Biden concluded by saying he considered Pakistan to be the most dangerous country in the world. "This is a guy (Xi Jinping) who understands what he wants but has an enormous, enormous array of problems. How do we handle that? How do we handle that relative to what's going on in Russia? And what I think is maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world: Pakistan. Nuclear weapons without any cohesion," said Biden. These remarks could be seen as a setback to the Shehbaz Sharif government's bid to improve ties with the US. At the event, Biden said there were enormous opportunities for the US to change the dynamic in the second quarter of the 21st century, as per ANI reports. These comments come two days after the release of the US' National Security Strategy. The 48-page document makes no reference to Pakistan. On Wednesday, the Biden administration released the Congress mandated key policy document, underlining the threat posed to the US by both China and Russia. The National Security Strategy states that China and Russia who earlier this year announced a "no-limits partnership" are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are distinct, ANI reported. "We will prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia," it added. The policy document contends that competition with China is most pronounced in the Indo-Pacific, but it is also increasingly global. The US Security Strategy highlighted that the next ten years will be a decisive decade of competition with China. (With ANI reports) Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. More
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Fierce fighting continued to rage Monday in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where military analysts have said both sides are likely suffering heavy troop casualties.A firefighter carries a wounded woman out of the rubble after a Russian rocket attack on Saturday in Dnipro, Ukraine.Pavel Petrov / APJan. 16, 2023, 12:47 PM UTC / Source: Associated PressThe death toll from a weekend Russian missile strike on an apartment building in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro has risen to 40, authorities said Monday, as Western analysts pointed to indications the Kremlin was preparing for a drawn-out war in Ukraine after almost 11 months of fighting.About 1,700 people lived in the multi-story building, and search and rescue crews have worked nonstop since Saturday’s strike to locate victims and survivors in the wreckage. The regional administration said 39 people have been rescued so far and 30 more remained missing. Authorities said at least 75 were wounded.The reported death toll made it the deadliest single attack on Ukrainian civilians since before the summer, according to The Associated Press-Frontline War Crimes Watch project. Residents said the apartment tower did not house any military facilities.The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called the strike, and others like it, “inhumane aggression” because it directly targeted civilians. “There will be no impunity for these crimes,” he said in a tweet Sunday.Asked about the strike Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian military doesn’t target residential buildings and suggested the Dnipro building was hit as a result of Ukrainian air defense actions.A missile hit the apartment building on Saturday, part of fresh wave of missiles launched by Russia.Spencer Platt / Getty ImagesThe strike on the building came amid a wider barrage of Russian cruise missiles across Ukraine. The Ukrainian military said Sunday that it did not have the means to intercept the type of Russian missile that hit the residential building in Dnipro.Fierce fighting continued to rage Monday in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where military analysts have said both sides are likely suffering heavy troop casualties. No independent verification of developments was possible.Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk province make up the Donbas, an expansive industrial region bordering Russia that Russian President Vladimir Putin identified as a focus from the war’s outset. Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Kyiv’s forces there since 2014.The Russian and Belarusian air forces began a joint exercise Monday in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and served as a staging ground for Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The drills are set to run through Feb. 1, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said. Russia has sent its warplanes to Belarus for the drills.The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, reported signs of the Kremlin taking steps to turn its Ukraine invasion into “a major conventional war” after months of embarrassing military reversals.What Moscow calls “a special military operation” aimed to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within weeks and to install a Kremlin-friendly regime there, but Russian forces ultimately withdrew from around Kyiv, the think tank said. Then came a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in recent months before the onset of winter slowed military advances.“The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a report late Sunday.It noted reports indicating the Russian military command was in “serious preparations” for an expanded mobilization effort, conserving mobilized personnel for future use, while seeking to boost military industrial production and reshuffling its command structure.That means Ukraine’s Western allies “will need to continue supporting Ukraine in the long run,” the think tank said.NATO member nations have sought in recent days to reassure Ukraine that they will stay the course. The United Kingdom has pledged tanks and the U.S. military’s new, expanded combat training of Ukrainian forces began in Germany on Sunday. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Ukraine has been vocal about the purported use of Iranian drones, and the EU is considering sanctions on Tehran.Tehran, Iran – The Iranian government says it is ready to talk to Ukrainian officials to address allegations that it is arming Russia and plans to ramp up military cooperation with it, as the war in Ukraine nears the end of its eighth month.
In a statement issued late on Tuesday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani reiterated Tehran’s denials about sending drones to Russia to be used in the conflict, and for the first time expressed readiness for “dialogue and negotiation with Ukraine to clear these allegations”.
It came shortly after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Monday he had proposed to President Volodymyr Zelenksyy the formal breaking of diplomatic ties with Iran after Russia’s latest attacks, which killed several people and damaged infrastructure.
Kuleba said the Ukrainian government had no doubts that Iranian Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones were used in Monday’s attacks, and believed Tehran would possibly continue supplying arms to Moscow.
Firefighters work to put out a fire in a residential building destroyed by a Russian drone attack, which local authorities say are Iranian-made Shahed-136s, on October 17, 2022 [Gleb Garanich/Reuters]
Separately, The New York Times on Tuesday cited unnamed US officials as saying that Iran, after selling drones to Russia, had sent trainers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the Russian-annexed Crimea Peninsula to help Russian forces operate them. It followed reports by other Western media that Tehran was preparing to send more drones, in addition to transferring short and medium-range surface-to-surface Fateh and Zolfaghar missiles.
Ukraine accuses Russia of using the Shahed-136, albeit re-branded as Geran-2 with its own tail numbers.
The relatively cheap and fairly accurate drone is able to fly long distances before crashing into its targets with built-in explosives.
Ukraine, which downgraded diplomatic ties with Tehran last month, has been vocal about the purported use of the Iranian drones, with Zelenskyy and his top officials directly blaming them several times for attacks on the capital Kyiv and elsewhere.
“Shahed killer,” wrote Ukraine’s defence ministry in a tweet last week showing the image of a young pilot who had supposedly downed several of the drones.
The Kremlin on Tuesday said that Russian technology with Russian names was “being used” in Ukraine, and referred questions to the defence ministry.
On Monday, Ukraine called on the European Union to impose sanctions on Iran for the alleged arms sales, with Kuleba saying he was prepared to offer evidence. The bloc’s foreign ministers did not take action during a meeting in Luxembourg, but foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the EU was reviewing evidence at its disposal and would impose new sanctions if it could independently verify arms sales to Russia for the war.
The bloc, however, imposed sanctions on a slew of Iranian officials and entities for what it called “the brutal repression of protests” that erupted across Iran a month ago following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s so-called “morality police”.
While repeatedly denying any arms sales to Moscow for the purpose of being used in Ukraine, Iranian officials have said the country has active “defence cooperation” with Russia, without elaborating.
Iran and Russia are growing increasingly closer, with Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian saying on Tuesday a long-term cooperation agreement that has been in the works since last year will be finalised by the end of the current Iranian calendar year in March 2023. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
| August 16, 2022 07:00 AM President Joe Biden was in office for three months when he addressed the nation from the White House Treaty Room last April, repeating a promise to bring troops home from Afghanistan. “It’s time to end the forever war,” Biden said from the room where then-President George W. Bush had launched the invasion nearly 20 years earlier. Though two successive administrations had failed to end the mission, public opinion polls showed the public was supportive of Biden following through with former President Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw. Yet the chaos that ensued months later has called into question Biden’s handling of the operation, accelerating a downward spiral in popularity from which he has never recovered and prompting a 100-page investigation by Republicans in Congress. WHITE HOUSE DEFENDS BIDEN'S AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL FROM 'ADVOCATES FOR ENDLESS WAR' By mid-August, rapid Taliban gains had threatened to turn the fulfillment of a popular campaign promise into a political liability for the president, whose approval rating began to slip underwater as his administration rushed to evacuate Americans and Afghan allies from the country while major cities fell to insurgent commanders. And while Biden had promised an orderly exit, the reality of evacuating more than 120,000 people under emergency conditions quickly grew stark. Biden later argued some fallout was inevitable. “There was no way to get out of Afghanistan, after 20 years, easily,” Biden said during a news conference several months later. “Not possible no matter when you did it. And I make no apologies for what I did.” The perception that the administration was shifting the goalposts further dented public confidence, said Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and an adviser to the late Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain. “They said things like, ‘We’re going to end this responsibly. We’re going to have an enduring commitment to Afghanistan. It’s not like the Taliban are just going to walk in and take Kabul one weekend,’” Fontaine said of the Biden administration. “And next thing you know, you’ve got something that looks like the fall of Saigon on your TV screen.” Fontaine said the chasm between what the public expected to happen and the outcome shook people’s faith. “I don’t think it was a surprise that people who watched the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan had their confidence shaken in the American ability to get things done,” he added, calling the unfolding events “searing and traumatic.” In the following months, Biden’s standing with voters took a protracted beating as domestic and international crises piled up. Biden had lost job approval in the weeks leading up to the evacuation as inflation took hold and a new coronavirus variant spread, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. But as the order to evacuate got underway, the percentage of voters who disapproved of the job the president was doing appeared to surge sharply upward. The president had promised a safe and orderly exit from Afghanistan by Sept. 11. Instead, weeks before the symbolic deadline on the anniversary of 9/11, Taliban fighters swept through the country and into Kabul. A Morning Consult-Politico poll conducted in the days before and after the Taliban seized control of the capital city showed that 49% of voters supported the withdrawal, a 20-percentage-point drop from April, when 69% backed it. On Aug. 26, a suicide bombing outside Hamid Karzai International Airport killed an estimated 170 Afghan civilians and 13 U.S. service members as desperate crowds continued to surge the airport in the hopes of moving past the security perimeter and out of the country. Republicans in Congress have accused Biden in a 100-page report of failing to prepare for the U.S. drawdown and leaving until the final moment decisions on how to evacuate Americans and Afghan allies from the country as Kabul fell to the Taliban. The investigation, led by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, claims senior Biden officials misled the public about the situation in Kabul, issuing public statements that contradicted dire internal assessments by the State Department and U.S. military, and that some officials in the country dragged their feet. CENTCOM COMMANDER WANTED TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN 'INDEFINITELY' “There was a complete lack and a failure to plan,” McCaul said on CBS’s Face The Nation. “There was no plan, and there was no plan executed.” The Republican minority’s report also disputes Biden’s assessment that the United States could not maintain a troop presence there without a “return to war with the Taliban.” But after nearly two decades, outside supporters of a drawdown said it was past time to leave. “The reality is that we were losing the war. Even with a massive set of airstrikes and a surge of forces from 2017 to 2019, the Taliban kept gaining ground, and the Afghan government just simply did not have the support of its people,” said Dan Caldwell, a senior adviser to Concerned Veterans for America and vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together. “That’s a hard reality for a lot of people to accept.” He added, “There was not some magical middle ground where we could have kept 2,500 troops in Afghanistan and held back the Taliban without incurring significant casualties.” In a memo defending Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal, National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the committee minority’s report presents an untenable solution, one that “advocates for endless war and for sending even more American troops to Afghanistan.” “The President refused to send another generation of Americans to fight a war that should have ended long ago — and we fundamentally disagree with those who advocated for miring the United States’ fighting men and women in an indefinite war with no exit strategy,” Watson wrote. The White House remains confident that the public holds no interest in returning to a protracted conflict. Some outside observers agree. “There’s no groundswell of public opinion in favor of going backward,” said Will Ruger, president of the American Institute for Economic Research and Trump nominee to be ambassador to Afghanistan. “What’s the constituency for the forever wars, especially if you were looking at, say, Russia as being a dangerous threat or China?” “People didn’t like the fact that he was telling the truth about what the U.S. policy objectives and interests were in Afghanistan and that no, this wasn’t a humanitarian mission. This was a counterterrorism and counterinsurgency mission,” Adam Weinstein, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute and veteran of the Afghanistan War, said of Biden. “To the average American, if you look at polling or if you talk with them, it makes absolute sense that we left Afghanistan. But those aren’t the people who write op-eds,” Weinstein added. “But that’s not who Biden did the withdrawal for. He did it first and foremost based on his own assessment of the risks and secondly because he knew the average American didn’t want to stay in Afghanistan indefinitely.” For Biden, the promise to pull out of Afghanistan was a long time coming. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Facing off against former Wisconsin GOP Rep. Paul Ryan on a vice presidential debate stage in Kentucky in 2012, Biden had pledged the drawdown would be complete in two years. “We are leaving,” Biden said at the time. That was when he was former President Barack Obama's understudy. As president, Biden kept his promise in his first year — so far, the last one in which his approval rating topped 50%. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
[1/2] Flags fly outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, November 16, 2022. REUTERS/Yves HermanBRUSSELS, Nov 16 (Reuters) - NATO ambassadors will hold an emergency meeting at 1000 CET (0900 GMT) on Wednesday to discuss a missile strike in eastern Poland close to the Ukrainian border that killed two people on Tuesday, two NATO officials and a European diplomat said.The Brussels gathering will be chaired by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who will hold a news conference around 1230 CET, NATO said, amid concerns that the incident could be a trigger for the Ukraine war to spill into neighbouring countries.NATO member Poland said the rocket landed on a grains facility in a village about 6 km (4 miles) from the border.NATO allies were quick to express concern and support."The reaction of our allies, their unequivocal support and willingness to stand by us, shows that we are a much safer country than if we were not in NATO," Poland's deputy foreign minister Pawel Jablonski told private radio station RMF FM on Wednesday."As a country bordering Ukraine, we may be exposed to various types of incidents, including accidental ones," he added.Many allies called for thorough investigations on the rocket's source. U.S. President Joe Biden said it was probably not fired from Russia. Russia, meanwhile, said it had nothing to do with the blast.But it were to be determined that Moscow was to blame for the blast, it could trigger NATO's principle of collective defence known as Article 5, in which an attack on one of the Western alliance's members is deemed an attack on all, starting deliberations on a potential military response.In the meantime, Poland will likely invoke NATO's Article 4 , Polish officials said in the early hours of Wednesday.The article 4 is a call for consultations among the allies in the face of a security threat, allowing for more time to determine what steps to take.The explosion near the Ukrainian border came as Russia unleashed a wave of missiles targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, attacks that Kyiv said were the heaviest in nearly nine months of war.NATO and G7 countries said earlier on Wednesday, after meeting in the margins of a G20 leaders' summit in Indonesia, that they would remain in close contact to decide any possible reaction to the blast.Contacts are also ongoing at European Union level. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted that he had assured Poland of the "EU Foreign Affairs Council' full support" in talks overnight with Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau.Reporting by Sabine Siebold and John Chalmers
Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing by John ChalmersOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) unveiled a suite of policy proposals Thursday intended to neutralize what he dubbed "Biden's border crisis," further shoring up his 2024 portfolio.
His proposal calls for an expansion of E-Verify to private businesses, beefing up state detention policies toward illegal immigrants, a crackdown on human smuggling, a mandate for voters to attest that they are U.S. citizens to become registered to vote, a ban on local governments from issuing IDs to illegal immigrants, and an invalidation of out-of-state licenses for illegal immigrants.
"This country is unable to control its own borders," DeSantis bemoaned during a news conference. "We've seen millions of people come across illegally over the last two-plus years. We've seen China, our No. 1 adversary, fly a spy balloon clear over the continental United States with impunity and basically humiliate our country in the process."
To go into effect, the measure must clear the state legislature, which is set to convene for a session next month, during which DeSantis plans to push for a slew of policies as he readies for a possible 2024 presidential campaign. DeSantis touted the measure as a model for other states to follow.
Florida already has an E-Verify system, in which prospective public sector employees are screened by immigration status, in place for public employees, but his plan expands it further in the private sector to industries like agriculture and hospitality. Violators of the E-Verify policy could lose their business licenses if they breach it twice in two years.
Under his plan, it will be a third-degree felony "to knowingly transport, conceal, or harbor an illegal alien within or into the state," with up to five years in prison and a $5,000 fine. It will become a second-degree felony if the illegal immigrant is under 18 years old, with up to 15 years in prison and fines of up to $10,000.
DeSantis, who has already taken steps to shore up election integrity, argued that mandating prospective voters to attest to their citizenship is necessary to safeguard elections.
"We want all citizens here that want to vote, to vote, but we don’t want anybody here voting illegally," DeSantis said. "And if you’re not a citizen of this country, you should not be voting in our elections."
DeSantis has long railed against the Biden administration's immigration policies, a major grievance among conservatives. Last year, for example, he chartered two planes to move immigrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, in an initiative he has since moved to expand.
"We have enough people that wanna come from these blue states — we can't also take everybody from other countries illegally. I mean, it's hard enough. The state's getting very crowded," he added, implying that conservative policies in Florida have attracted residents from Democratic strongholds.
While touting his new proposal, DeSantis contended that if passed, the measure will "force the federal government to get with the program" and move to secure the southern border. He also suggested Biden's handling of the border will be a liability if he runs for reelection.
"If he's going to run again, this is a massive problem for him, and I think that they — maybe they're wising up about that," DeSantis chided, referring to Biden. "Because you can't defend the borders of your own country? That's kind of like your primary job."
Over recent weeks, DeSantis has begun broadening the purview of his commentary on national political issues, wading into foreign policy matters such as the war in Ukraine and the suspected Chinese spy balloon. He has widely polled as the top Republican challenger to former President Donald Trump. | US Involvement in Foreign Conflicts |
Subsets and Splits