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180 | 0 | FSMA trading suspended | null | 4 comments | 2023-07-18 | Yesterday i went all in shorting ARGX on the Euronext Brussels market only to notice today that trading in said stock is suspended, at the request of the FSMA pending a press release. Does anyone have any idea what this might mean? Good news, bad news? | 2023-07-24 |
181 | 15 | $T, $VZ, $F, $ABT, $PARA, $INTC, $C, $UPS cut bait on loss or DCA to get even? | null | 42 comments | 2023-07-17 | Evidently both Verizon and AT&T have become the titanic. Taking on water fast because of new allegations regarding buried lead cable liabilities.Unfortunately, I have one investment account that has a large position of AT&T stock that represents a 45% decline from its invested value. I was buying this stock for the dividend 2018. basis is about $25 per shareI have the same situation with Verizon shares with a position that is down 37% from its invested value.Ford down 29% Struggling because of trying to sell EV vehicles. Just announce Cutting prices so the stock dropped on the news.Abbott down 22% Been waiting for almost 24 months for it to return to invested cost, but it seems that the market does not like Abbott for the problems that had over a year ago with baby formulaParamont, the old CBS down 50% I have held this for 24 months, but evidently because of cord cutting, and the move to streaming this probably will not play out to get back to my invested cost.Intel down 34% I probably should go ahead and add to this position, because long-term Intel will be OK because of their investment in domestic production.Citi Bank down 16% I guess we will see if this pulls up with earnings. If it does, I will try to get out when even with invested cost.$UPS down 12% Concerned regarding their teamster union problems. If they go on strike I am sure UPS will go down 25%. It probably will not recover back to its current level in 2023. Long-term it’s probably a good investment, but I probably should move the cash to something that might get a better return, or for that matter even treasuries at 5%From the Cash standpoint I don’t need to sell any of these I can hold it and wait but I don’t like having dead money in a stock. It would allow me to sell some gainers that I have big increases like Apple. But I don’t like selling.Would you DCA when this hits the bottom or just cut bait.Again I don’t need the cash today. but I am smart enough to know some of the positions will never get back to the invested cost.Most of these companies were purchased for the dividend. This does not represent my entire portfolio. I have lots of gainers and strong dividend producers.Been investing, 45+ years so my horizon is very long-term as it would be going into my estate versus my needing to live of the investments. | 2023-07-24 |
182 | 452 | Investors Are Bailing on Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Fund. | null | 128 comments | 2023-07-16 | Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund has rallied more than 50% this year. Investors are using that as an opportunity to get out.They have pulled a net $717 million from the ARK Innovation ETF over the past 12 months, according to FactSet. That exodus marks a notable shift for a fund that had consistently drawn investor cash since its 2014 inception. Once the largest actively managed ETF with nearly $30 billion in assets under management, the fund has shrunk to roughly $9 billion, mostly due to investment losses.Known by its ticker symbol ARKK, Wood’s fund became an investor darling shortly after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic with hugely successful bets on unprofitable and “disruptive” technology companies. It took in huge amounts of investor money, culminating with a $6.5 billion inflow in the first quarter of 2021, when its share price peaked.Then, the Federal Reserve’s fastest interest-rate hiking campaign in decades crushed the valuations of unprofitable growth companies, which often attract investors when interest rates are low and returns on safer investments such as CDs are minimal. Shares of ARKK plunged 67% in 2022, but its investors largely held on or bought the dip. Now, analysts say they expect some of those investors are getting out for good.“You have a whole group of people who got in somewhere near the top and are sitting on horrific losses,” said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management, which operates an inverse ETF that lets investors bet against Wood’s fund. “I think some of those people have said, ‘I’m never getting back to even; this is probably the best I’m going to do, and it’s time to get out.’”Wood says the outflows have been small compared with the fund’s assets.“We have been astonished at our asset retention since February of ‘21,” Wood said in an interview. “It’s a very small number as a percentage of assets, which suggests that it’s far more likely to be people who are taking some profits than some exodus of people who have stayed in the fund through a prolonged down period.”Despite the recent rally, ARKK shares are trading about 70% below their all-time high. The S&P 500 has climbed 17% this year on hopes the Fed is near the end of its tightening effort; it is still down 6.1% from its early 2022 high.ARKK’s top five holdings are Tesla, Coinbase Global, Roku, Zoom Video Communications and Block. Only Tesla and Zoom were profitable last year. Tesla holds an 11% weight in the fund, helping power its advance this year. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker have more than doubled in 2023 but, like ARKK, are down sharply from their previous high.Although technology stocks are strongly back in favor this year, the best performers have mostly been mature, profitable companies that generate significant cash, such as Microsoft and Amazon.com. Unlike two years ago, investors appear to have less interest and patience for companies that aren’t expected to turn a profit until years in the future. Higher interest rates have meant there is a much higher opportunity cost to wait for profitability.“There’s certainly been a change in sentiment from when the ARK funds were doing really well,” said Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research. “A lot of the stocks the ETF holds won’t have big cash flows until way out in the future, and it’s a more challenging environment for that with rates expected to be higher for longer.”Investors say the ARK brand lost its luster after the fund’s prodigious fall. It took another hit after missing out on the monster rally in shares of Nvidia, the graphics-chip maker at the heart of the boom of interest in artificial-intelligence technology. ARKK sold the last of its Nvidia position in January, a stake that had long been one of its largest holdings. Nvidia has been the S&P 500’s best performer this year, more than tripling.“The bloom is off the rose a little bit,” Tuttle said.Wood says the negative publicity over the past two years has been an opportunity for ARK to solidify its brand as an asset manager focused on disruptive innovation.“I can tell you at the end of ’20 and early ‘21, when we couldn’t do anything wrong and people were just chasing, I felt very uncomfortable,” she said. “Today, I feel very comfortable. We are not seeing that kind of behavior. That tells me there is a wall of worry out there. And that usually sustains a bull market.”The outflows at ARK are coming while ETF investors appear eager to put money to work in other funds. June was the best month for equity ETF flows since October, according to State Street, while active funds attracted $10 billion of inflows for the month and more than $100 billion over the past 12 months.Investors displayed “childlike exuberance” and “jumped into the market’s rally with both feet,” Matthew Bartolini, head of Americas research for State Street’s ETF business, said in a research note.The ARKK fund has an 11% annualized average return since inception, but the average ARKK investor has lost 21% on a dollar-weighted, annualized basis, according to FactSet.“ARKK shareholders have not timed their purchases well. Many bought high and have yet to sell,” said Elisabeth Kashner, director of global funds research at FactSet.The fund remains a cash cow for Wood, who owns a majority stake in its parent company, ARK Investment Management. Its 0.75% annual fee is about double the average fee for active ETFs.Although fee revenue is well off its 2021 peak, ARKK has generated more than $20 million of fees this year. ARK Investment Management currently has the third-highest daily revenue from active equity ETFs, of at least 145 different issuers, according to an analysis from FactSet.To be sure, the market comeback staged by many of ARKK’s tech-focused holdings surprised many, highlighting the perils of trying to forecast performance.“If you just look at rates, you would not have expected this great rebound in growth coming into the year,” said Dana D’Auria, co-chief investment officer at Envestnet. “It’s a classic window into why market prognostication doesn’t work. Who would have thought artificial intelligence would boom and create this massive interest?”https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-bailing-on-cathie-woods-popular-ark-fund-dbf5d801?mod=hp_lead_pos2 | 2023-07-24 |
183 | 167 | I have a lot of cash on hand, what should I do? | null | 365 comments | 2023-07-16 | I have $10,000+ sitting in my ROTH as cash at the moment and don’t really know what to do. with the SPY and QQQ being near all time highs now doesn’t seem like a great time to buy, but it’s not helpful to my future when i have a large sum of money burning a whole in an account. what other investment vehicles or ETF’s could i take a look at that I won’t be buying the top and have room to grow. TIA! | 2023-07-24 |
184 | 5 | What should I add? Thinking about adding a dividend stock. | null | 38 comments | 2023-07-17 | My portfolio: Cash $5,000...SOFI $10,626...QQQ $3,184.30... SFY (an s&p 500 mutual fund) 4,002.50 I was thinking VZ or BAC, they look like good value plays and they can't go down forever...right? Anyway looking for value dividend ideas. Thanks. | 2023-07-24 |
185 | 15 | (7/17) Monday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News | null | 1 comment | 2023-07-17 | Good Monday morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday, June 17th, 2023-Stock futures are little changed to start the week: Live updatesStock futures were little changed Monday ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings.Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 54 points, or 0.16%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.05%. Futures connected to the Nasdaq-100 traded 0.1% higher.Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 2.3% to notch its best weekly gain since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively. On Friday, the Dow rose 113.89 points, or 0.33%, while the S&P and Nasdaq slipped 0.1% and 0.18%, respectively.The moves came on the heels of solid big bank earnings and softer inflation reports that lifted investor sentiment. That heightened some hopes the Federal Reserve may be able to tamp down inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.“It’s the Goldilocks scenario, it’s inflation coming down with near record low unemployment,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX, told CNBC’s “Last Call” on Friday. “Yes, people have some pain ... with prices, but they have jobs. Evidence is increasingly favorable for the soft landing viewpoint, and immaculate disinflation is what has the market going crazy.”Second-quarter earnings season gains steam this week with results from big financial institutions such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Results are also due from United Airlines, Las Vegas Sands and technology giants Tesla and Netflix.Wall Street are bracing for what be a gloomy season with lower profits. Analysts forecast a more than 7% decline in S&P 500 earnings from a year ago, according to FactSet.This week also ushers in the Fed’s “blackout period” ahead of its July policy meeting. Traders anticipate a near 97% chance the central bank increases interest rates later this month, after pausing hikes in June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!)TODAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:(source: cnbc.com)Activision Blizzard — The video-game maker popped 4% after Microsoft and Sony signed a deal to keep “Call of Duty” on Sony’s PlayStation gaming consoles following Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard.STOCK SYMBOL: ATVICLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)Chewy — Shares jumped more than 5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded them to buy from neutral. The firm said the e-commerce pet products company has an attractive risk-reward profile and could see margins expand.STOCK SYMBOL: CHWYCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)PepsiCo — The beverage giant dropped 1.2% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley to equal weight from overweight. Pepsi’s strong earnings report and potential upside are now priced into the stock, resulting in limited upside ahead, Morgan Stanley said.STOCK SYMBOL: PEPCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)Yelp — Shares gained 3.6% after being upgraded by Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral. The Wall Street bank also raised its price target to $47, suggesting 23.3% upside from Friday’s close. Goldman cited rising advertising trends, incremental margin opportunity and increased shareholder returns in the years ahead for the call.STOCK SYMBOL: YELPCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)Tesla — The electric-vehicle maker added nearly 2% in the premarket. On Saturday, the company said it built its first cybertruck after two years of delays.STOCK SYMBOL: TSLACLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)Paramount Global — Shares of the entertainment company fell 2.8% in premarket trading after the latest installment in the “Mission: Impossible” franchise underperformed expectations at the box office. The movie earned $56.2 million domestically over the weekend — which was below the previous movie in the franchise — and $80 million over its first five days of release, according to Variety.STOCK SYMBOL: PARACLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)AT&T — Shares shed 1.5% following a downgrade by Citi to neutral from buy. The Wall Street firm cited the industry’s historical use of cabling sheathed in lead weighing on the company for at least a few months or potentially longer.STOCK SYMBOL: TCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)State Street — The financial giant slipped about 2% in premarket trading. The stock was downgraded by JPMorgan to underweight from neutral following State Street’s earnings release Friday. State Street’s second-quarter revenue missed estimates, sending shares 12.1% lower on Friday.STOCK SYMBOL: STTCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)Figs — Shares of the apparel company fell 4.6% in premarket trading after Raymond James downgraded Figs to market perform from outperform. A slowing economy and the restart of student loan payments could hurt Figs’ growth in the near term, according to Raymond James.STOCK SYMBOL: FIGSCLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)DISCUSS!What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, June 17th, 2023! :) | 2023-07-24 |
186 | Vote | Verliebt, verkatert, hyped oder entspannt. Das Radio SRF Virus ist live mit dir, für alle deine Moods. Mit unseren fünf Hosts mit fünfmal mehr Charakter. Jetzt reinhören und mitreden. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=Mix-jH4nKQVajen7U9hVKsXXr4PANUlhl_dcEWi8-jejj8GtxVP1O3uJZf5Fac7gRBiujM-jKa3DImFG7frwomk_HIQEa1S3oRRqV_XEbgQGI0IbXWho-UjfpK-fZ8caCse07s1Lt8k01puskslOE9VL2YvLXqEql86clWfLtiJ44odp2t27Kuz9N_dCiW2RohHXVMWk0hkuze6yGAVxM5rdB2LeO1zIYDJBJYiGJHZeXBG3HNURnDHDh_XFzUBMO_lzdD1LfxiBirCtDONbnY0-GcKX_ZvnIQEd0L6N7-nck3RKpXHIXQnA9sP9JQIfwk1--kf6uzmw1ogK4ESOTxpVid2X2XKp55hVOy957TmSb4UG1B2jpxqvdrrTfaaG&zp=_0F23tvhYyqJ5Ws7Wtrk7jkoIQV86M92r_0tiTSgJ_DPqQyVJ7v88Sag8QSuI1GUaoS0BGu1pNRcH86Z0yliMD8tc8SXwKLhs9E96wdaKT72xI9radT8GAY78s_w7fB3H0q7xmAHMpiuy3qgUoOZplhRJb-uRfS5oND1f8RkQMSIeVWqEdYdObA3ZO-P28rR9fopJPKnEhGxaK4k6dxUWhwNJLAvBdzvmZFsYf18yRL4nFV_sGgVFAFkDyafmz6hZ-aVjjJHmg | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
187 | 1 | Does DRIP artificially inflate the value of a stock? Are there any arbitrage opportunities? | null | 11 comments | 2023-07-17 | On the day after a dividend pay day, tons of people's dividend reinvestment programs buy more shares of the stock. Does this artificially inflate the value of the stock because people are buying just because they happen to have dividend money to spend, and not because of fundamentals relating to the stock? If so, are there arbitrage opportunities like longing the stock on the pay day (before the dividend is paid at the end of the day) and selling on the next day at 9:32am ET, or maybe buying the stock at 9:28am ET during pre-market and selling at 9:32am ET (since DRIP reinvests during market hours) on the day after the pay day?Note that I'm not talking about the dividend itself or the ex-date. I'm talking about a price return opportunity due to people's dividend reinvestments inflating the price of the stock. | 2023-07-24 |
188 | 17 | r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jul 17, 2023 | null | 566 comments | 2023-07-17 | These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.Some helpful links:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
189 | 2 | IonQ and QuantumBasel Partnership: A Leap Towards Democratizing Quantum Computing and Elevating Switzerland as a European Quantum Leader | null | 4 comments | 2023-07-17 | The strategic partnership between IonQ and QuantumBasel aims to transform Switzerland into a European quantum powerhouse. This collaboration intends to establish a European quantum data center and install two advanced IonQ quantum computers at QuantumBasel, Switzerland's first quantum hub. With $500 million in private funding, the initiative's goal is to democratize quantum computing and make the technology accessible to the public. The IonQ quantum computers, which are still under development, hold potential to revolutionize industries such as logistics, finance, pharma, chemistry, and AI. The new FDA Modernization Act 2.0, allowing the use of computer models as an alternative to live animal testing, positions quantum computing favorably. IonQ's agreement with QuantumBasel is worth $28 million and has increased IonQ's 2023 bookings expectations by 25%. The challenge now lies in IonQ's ability to deliver on its commitment to develop machines with 35 and 64 algorithmic qubits on time.https://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/2023/07/17/strategic-partnership-between-ionq-and-quantumbasel-could-transform-switzerland-into-a-european-quantum-powerhouse/?sh=6cc6c00d45f7 | 2023-07-24 |
190 | 2 | Did I miss the announcement for the affected stocks in the Nasdaq rebalance? Thought it was supposed to come out Friday last week? | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-17 | Pretty sure we were supposed to get an official announcement on July 14 from Nasdaq about the stocks and weightings were going to be affected by the rebalancing. Don't see any such announcement and no news media seems to be providing any updates either. Am I missing the announcement somewhere or has it just been forgotten until it quietly rebalances with no official announcement next week. | 2023-07-24 |
191 | 10 | Anyone eyeing any interesting growth stocks? | null | 100 comments | 2023-07-17 | I am looking to pickup up a couple leaps and/or positions and have my eyes towards small caps or stocks that have had recent drops but decent fundamentals. Does anyone have anything they are watching or top picks they want to share for companies that you are optimistic on over the next 18 months?I have on my watch list so far:Zoom, Dis, VNB | 2023-07-24 |
192 | 23 | Japanese Stocks - Buy Now? | null | 31 comments | 2023-07-17 | Today I listened to Dan Rasmussen of Verdad on the We Study Billionaires podcast. He touted the high number of value stocks poised for increases. Anyone devoting a percent of their portfolio to Japanese stocks? | 2023-07-24 |
193 | 0 | The S&P 500 hasn’t really recovered since 2000? | null | 25 comments | 2023-07-18 | If we compare S&P500 to Gold instead of US dollar, we see that S&P500 is worth a lot less compared to Gold yet we are close to Breaking all time highs in terms of USD. Doesn’t anyone else find this perplexing | 2023-07-24 |
194 | 3 | Trade worldwide with a broker you can trust! Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=-GYxJCgcpQKgkT2F7ZgumXgNjgrsb4andIhhRho0qaCIDv6NiUqygJXzQg7j3P_NReSDsn-F8Qk5PB-90Ur13oAWS-em8x03q0QjiB_0873DKu3TzKpdmRMPLYyetdQLFVEnit3LRsvcRBr-lOIdDaWrQEPqm-YudgO432izHOE7ZOynSWUpls_lIFDFaZ-y7f_nv0DYIxxmfLcG605aq0VwO0PvqaAS6dT3kcIw1C81x9Jfej7kHReP878-09Wb2N_wkamRFcT3-BUQWga5qugpuufO8BjvPWHQYb9bDf3ankUWXWObjClY2IsEWzyDinZhZCRMm0Kkuac2rQO1EDPebEAE_Dx-N9wWl821vhlnIxjSMWNk0S-1dQ_rUK9pF2k4IfO1&zp=4uwuSsIbXFQTlT-ySSV_dH7HXVVy2eJ2p5EVJmXLTw3ZXobqbFLMhv37nXzy2R-cTyG11QtqQnJuEVMi6iZxjmyrRJXh9BYsEQxLi_fV6QN3PuPs62EcYhqex2Gj-Q0JFwZPcvGelAp5C1bWDW35p3wufBJLyiswO9y5BqOYFZAZVQmFTzFBAz39y3X2pEdY05p7Xp5GcYuHDmj8QaxyjGo9ZNpS0zoIOC3X7m-k12KKKLb1iSFjKId0WSiKm97G-C8MMA | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
195 | 769 | Senator Chuck Schumer says the American public has a right to know about non-human intelligence. How would the markets react? | null | 379 comments | 2023-07-16 | https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4097653-senators-to-offer-amendment-to-require-government-to-make-ufo-records-public/Schumer said in a statement. "The American public has a right to learn about technologies of unknown origins, non-human intelligence, and unexplainable phenomena."If the proposed bipartisan bill passes, how do you think the markets will react, would you anticipate a crash? If you are presented with undeniable facts on the topic, would the stock market be the least of your concerns? | 2023-07-24 |
196 | 62 | Can Microsoft just close it's acquisition of Activision before Tuesday July 18th, 2023? | null | 36 comments | 2023-07-16 | It looks like Microsoft is waiting on the CMA for approval. To avoid renegotiating a higher price with Activision, will Microsoft just close before Tuesday and deal with any issues from the UK later? Activision's business has been way better since the acquisition with CoD: MW2, huge Diablo launch, and mobile outperforming the industry.I wouldn't be surprised if Activision wanted at least $10 billion or maybe more. Any penalties from the UK would probably be less so it sounds smart for Microsoft to just close the acquisition as soon as possible. | 2023-07-24 |
197 | 1 | Stop Loss & Earnings Reports | null | 8 comments | 2023-07-17 | Looking at TSLA's earning report due in 2 days, I had an idea:What if you set your Stop Loss to a 0.5-1% below the current stock value just before the earnings report? If it is a positive earnings report, the stock price may rise. If it is negative, your losses will be kept to a minimum.Would this, done over a long period, result in gains? As any losses from any earnings report would be capped, while being outweighed by the uncapped earnings potential from positive earnings reports.I've tried looking online, but can't find anything readily available on this hence I assume it doesn't work? But thought I'd ask! | 2023-07-24 |
198 | 0 | Selling covered calls classified as passive income or active trading? | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-17 | I have accrued some savings and stocks for a few companies over my 3 years on F1. I dont want to put more money in the market, but plan to sell Covered Calls (CCs) periodically once a month to generate passive income.Would CCs be considered Day trading or active investment? I dedicate less than 5 min per month to this activity and no selling/trading of options at all.Would it affect my status? | 2023-07-24 |
199 | 0 | Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors of all time. Here are his top 25 lessons on investing: | null | 14 | 2023-07-17 | The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth
If a business does well, the stock price will follow
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing
Much success can be attributed to inactivity, most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell
The value of a business is the cash it's going to produce in the future
Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing
Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth
The three most important words in investing are 'margin of safety'
The true investor welcomes volatility, a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses
The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient
If you cannot control your emotions, you cannot control your money
Your best investment is yourself, the more you learn, the more you'll earn
I think the worst mistake you can make in stocks is to buy or sell based on current headlines
Never invest in a business you cannot understand
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful
Our goal is to find an outstanding business at a sensible price, not a mediocre business at a bargain price
Investing is laying out money now, to get more back in the future
Price is what you pay, and value is what you get
Ignore the stock market, ignore the economy, and buy a business you understand
A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time huge, but solvable problem
Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from stupidity rather than participate in it
The true investor welcomes volatility, a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses
Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases
When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy
The years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines, even panics, that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur | 2023-07-24 |
200 | 0 | Investment plan for about 85 000$ USD over the coming year
Advice Request | null | 12 | 2023-07-17 | So I have been reading up on investing for a while now, painfully missing the amazing opportunity to buy last year. I want you to criticize, and help improve, my plan for entering my assets into stocks and ETFs over the coming year to two years.
I very strongly believe that AI will be even more transformative for society than what most expect, and will have greater implications for the overall economy than most think. I think that even buying tech related stocks, or for instance an ETF following the NASDAQ right now, near ATH, will almost definitely be a solid investment by 2030.
However I am also a bit unsure about the more short-medium term market and it would feel really bad to miss yet another great market for buying. I think I will keep a significant portion of my money outside the market for now.
I should also mention my country of residency is Norway so this has some implications for choices.
The plan:
-Buy 100 shares of LYMS (European UCITS ETF following NASDAQ - I think this will be better than QQQM long term due to tax benefits unique to holding European shares and funds in Norway) (Done)
-Buy around 2 500 $ worth of Norwegian dividend stocks (Done)
-Buy shares in AMD for 1 000 - 2 000 $ (I think they have a very good shot at taking AI processor market shares from Nvidia, and honestly I think I might even favor them over Nvidia in the long rund, though this is just a hunch from how good they are at developing efficient GPUs)
-Buy shares in Alphabet ABEA for 1 000 - 2 000 $ (I think Alphabet's DeepMind is further ahead of the curve when it comes to AI than has been fully let on by now)
-Buy shares sin Tesla Corp TL0 for 1 000 - 2 000 $ (I think Tesla is a solid company that will benefit both from increasing electrification of the carpool and increased potential of AI - will probably be significantly higher valued in 2030)
-Buy shares in TSMC TSM (Only one I will not buy in the European market, but I think their incredibly dominant position in semiconductor manufacturing will make this stock really really valueable over the next 10 years unless China invades Taiwan, which I think is a bit further into the future than that, although possible)
-Move the remaining 400 000 - 580 000 $ to bank account I just opened with the highest interest rate offered in the Norwegian market (Have cash at hand if the market should go down in the relatively near future so I can actually benefit from it next time)
Some possible additions right now:
-Considering Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF Acc P500 (Follows the S&P 500 - with a soft landing seeming plausible and a land war raging in Europe, and Europe being further off getting its inflation under control, I think this might be a solid investment as confidence in, and the performance of, the US economy rises)
-Considering Franklin FTSE China UCITS ETF FLXC (Low cost ETF, broadens exposure, positions me to benefit if confidence in Chinese stocks rises - if the market becomes less afraid of Chinese government intervention this one will be severely undervalued. At the same time I don't want to buy specific Chinese stocks precisely because of said intervention)
-Considering Franklin FTSE India UCITS ETF FLXI (Low cost ETF, broadens exposure, the Indian economy seems to be consistently experiencing solid growth and might be a pretty good long term investment)
-Considering Apple APC (I think the price will probably be lower at some point within the next two years, but Apple is still a really solid company that probably will be valued significantly higher than today eventually)
-Considering Microsoft MSF, Meta FB2A (Big tech companies that might stand to gain from AI without being completely reliant on it either)
-Considering Amazon (Further from full price recovery than other tech companies, stands to gain massively if US economic activity and confidence rises, though as I expect interest rates to remain high might take some time)
-Berkshire Hathaway Class B BRYN (They seem to know what they are doing, better inherent diversification than most of the other stocks here)
-Considering Palantir PTX (So I can sell it when Reddit speculation leads it to new heights)
-Considered Nvidia (FOMO)
-Considered IBM and Intel as competitors to Nvidia and AMD, but upon looking into it I see AMD as the only real competitor to Nvidia for now. I don't think IBM is a terrible buy, I am not convinced Intel will be more valueable long term)
So what do you think - is my plan good? Should I buy any of the stocks I am considering? Should I drop some of the stocks I am currently planning to buy? Should I keep more or less money in reserve? Am I wrong about some of the companies?
Give me your reasons and tell my why I am wrong so I can make better decisions! :) | 2023-07-24 |
201 | 3 | should i buy options before earnings?
Advice Request | null | 46 | 2023-07-17 | I'm confused about this as i have heard some say that if you know the stock will go up, you should buy options before, but also have heard others say that IV Crush makes your options worthless, so is buying options into earnings a yes or no? | 2023-07-24 |
202 | Vote | Um eine Terrororganisation von innen zu stürzen, gehen die Agentinnen Cruz und Joe undercover. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=bohZJiLhEGS6mZRDpSbySaTMvrgL1zD0WPJIu8_2rHkyqa_VDsUD88dDNhXsLOvOnY95LCYcFpeKarFhbc8g_LzwFZzJGJJqWIL3IkAtkmIU6LUYaDaUriGG1Tq48E5wTm69QfV2No0dNcl75dAapVl-pTbZYf-dcNf8tgYo_DqCN4aIGQrYg9rOngIKwLwKMoCBvvEnfB7Tc5UaTNW_L97hUwrOrMW3HTo7yHGXxhNz0N-zGs2jGX_2N-hw4WGs05pr2ti7nNHvbAJ2RS9giO1RbzjqYlTkuDOn34B-uZMI7-3-ec1Y4IVIc6iA9ArsJG5cUXX-REvb_EWI5tNoJr_Suvr9tVXYmCkFJ6hCDNot3ouONfE9TisyA-naruj58wW9SQ&zp=AW9C0xGwI2f4F01dOcbfhvjgZVtuK7Ic_X7vvROHgTEDZ5DyFtW9W5K7Ue3ux2mGfLHSNpjjnxpiZcmaJTC3bcwTXi__peVkA4tkYZFLqhKvrC5rn4y8du3kf_EH6myH6JXmMOPmNQvynNvqdUrRcdFQc_v-EbjYZtyYa71H-sftt1Flr_YD7H77e3A9N05B | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
203 | 0 | International stock broker?
Advice Request | null | 4 | 2023-07-17 | Hey guys.
I’m new and want to get into investing however, I don’t live in the US/EU so i can’t use vanguard,fidelity..
Any suggestions what broker to use to start investing in mutual funds/ ETFs?
Thank you! | 2023-07-24 |
204 | 0 | What do we think about Occidental?
Advice Request | null | 11 | 2023-07-17 | I’m very new to the game and I took a look at OXY today. To me it looks like the dip in stock price and their earnings are not really their fault because oil sold for less money per barrel (at least that’s what I understood from reading many articles and looking at their financials). They increased oil production but somehow ended up with less revenue. Unlucky?
They were making a good progress in 2022, and are going downhill right now. Cashflow looked very promising in 2022. Also, I saw that Buffet bought a lot of shares of this one recently as well. He wouldn’t do that for no reason right? I’m just waiting to see how things pan out. I’m considering buying but only after I do a bit more research about the company and petroleum industry in general.
I’m slowly learning to think and evaluate stocks and I’m not sure if my thought process is on the right track. I’m studying and want to learn more about how the market works, what affects each sector and all of that stuff as I spend time looking at different companies.
What do you guys think? Is this the right way to think about this stock and valuate it? Any advice moving forward? Any help is much appreciated.
Edit: Thanks for the advice guys. Very helpful because I still have so much to learn. Don’t know what the downvotes are for though. If I’m saying something dumb, it would go a long if you could just tell me. | 2023-07-24 |
205 | 0 | Can someone explain why ATVI is not delisted?
Company Question | null | 6 | 2023-07-17 | It was written the company will get delisted today because of the merger with Microsoft but so far it seems it is still there and even with a 2$ discount.
I don't see any talks about this does anyone know what is going on with that? | 2023-07-24 |
206 | 11 | How to still be an active stock picker if I have less free time? | null | 22 comments | 2023-07-16 | I started investing in 2016 after college and had enough free time to actively pick stocks, do all of my due diligence, and even build my own financial models. At the time I was just an analyst in my career.As I've progressed my career to a Manager, I've had less free time and stopped building DCF models since I needed to free up my time and was able to rely on models for analysts at my brokerage.Generally I've been a buy & hold person with my holdings with me since 2016 - 2020. With one of my stocks about to be acquired, Activision Blizzard, I would either reallocate to my 5 remaining stocks or need to do research on new stocks.With less free time in life the easiest option is just reallocate to my 5 remaining stocks I know. But any advice from those who are like me that have been busier with their careers and still able to be active stock pickers? I'm guessing in the past I went too deep in the details and need to make some cuts in the level I'm looking at for ex. maybe just focus on the past year the biz has been doing for my due diligence, skim competitors at an even higher level, etc.This post isn't about being a passive investor and I know most people would go in this route for this situation. | 2023-07-24 |
207 | Vote | Verliebt, verkatert, hyped oder entspannt. Das Radio SRF Virus ist live mit dir, für alle deine Moods. Mit unseren fünf Hosts mit fünfmal mehr Charakter. Jetzt reinhören und mitreden. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=yooVXO4EKbYgmSxkMNvOjO-Bvr6UjMPqjWcGR7EaiADQ4qH9hAHL4EUE3THXs0p1RC3sr7fK-dPVs7zc492gKmGW0AJZNfOzw_-f-7ifiznCxOtZlHrTWe7tXTIwr12QxAnYjI9P-JDxNnZVMIYL3XeZ4a70AwFK-ZyBN9ghcJ0ff0l5Ok3YlNHXMXZB9zMp5fJ7l7-VVsKQh6Sw-ULFkZftBPyBgawO0HF623On5dQw8h1Oj6XTO4h4FyDkQzUWYDkxFwgOjK7abR5G-z9mnJaQR3OGiPW0Gp1Q85rRol2Qr9_rVWwTreU0KFPlYTdTQk5BzGJYixYX7vIElXlWpRgIcw-GKE4OgqPeh3H251QZCOSssUupFdD3Oql4HqCj&zp=ECG1jT22Bz07YwepD0WZnnaigTfrTyoiggLMU8qBVxwQK8ix4ccxEqn6oxFVzQl4q4BgNGrAmBND-G1EZCHQorTYfQAUvaLy0uWEpDP5t9GaKlexOB1a7Ci3Zja7VddnxMCs0r-1FMnKRIOp9tZY4vg3V4jYdnbiYNpDWLcwrBV_6j1lNvfH_whTlM7PfNe5ZfDtMvgTYpL0PLxY4wUFS04kMHdj6vCH-X1n6N-VOD2GDIYVbQG5i9MjE6sEHiTAgw12VWX--w | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
208 | 7 | Tips for market limit buy of ETFs | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-16 | I'm a simple, passive investor mostly contributing to ETFs for long term growth with a small amount of my income each month. I use Robinhood. At first, when I deposited money to my account, I would just buy stocks at market value at that time. Then, I started playing with the Market Limit feature to try and get the ETFs at a better price when they would dip.But I haven't had much success, and after 90 days of placing my order, I get my brokerage cash back in my account, missing out on the growth of those stocks during those 90 days.Anyone regularly do limit buys and have success? | 2023-07-24 |
209 | 510 | Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations | null | 313 comments | 2023-07-15 | Economists are dialing back recession risks.Easing inflation, a still-strong labor market and economic resilience led business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to lower the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys.While that probability is still high by historical comparison, it represents the largest month-over-month percentage-point drop since August 2020, as the economy was recovering from a short but sharp recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic. It reflects the fact that the economy has kept growing even as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and inflation declined.In the latest WSJ survey, economists expected gross domestic product to have grown at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, a sharp uptick from 0.2% in the previous survey. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously. They expect the economy to grow 0.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 0.3% contraction expected in the prior survey, followed by a 0.1% contraction in the fourth. Forecasters said GDP would increase 1% in 2023, measured from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, double the previous forecast of 0.5%.Nearly 60% of economists said their main reason for optimism about the economic outlook is their expectation that inflation will continue to slow. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index climbed 3% in June from a year earlier, sharply lower than the peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and the slowest in more than two years. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the annual change in the personal-consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy—has fallen from 5.4% in March 2022 to 4.6% in May. Economists expect it to reach 3.7% by the fourth quarter of this year, though that is still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Pathway to a soft landingMany economists first began in the middle of last year to project a recession when persistently high inflation prompted the Fed to raise rates at the most aggressive pace in nearly three decades. Historically, lowering the inflation rate materially has always involved higher unemployment and a downturn, and few economists thought this time would be different.Now, a pathway to achieve a “soft landing,” or getting inflation down without a recession, is “back on the table,” said Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “At the beginning of this year it seemed more of a pipe dream,” said Snaith. Now, “it seems a recession keeps slipping, slipping, slipping into the future.” Snaith has lowered the probability of recession to 45% from 90% in April.On average, economists still expect the labor market will lose 10,551 jobs a month in the first quarter of 2024, broadly unchanged from their previous forecast. But unlike in the April survey, economists no longer expect job cuts in the third and fourth quarter of this year. They expect employers will add jobs in the second and third quarters of next year, suggesting any downturn will be mild.“Inflation has slowed remarkably already, and we believe will continue to do so because spending growth is slowing substantially and the growth in labor force is helping service providers,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.Still, stronger-than-expected economic growth this year will also likely result in the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, according to the Journal survey.Economists expected the midpoint of the range for the federal-funds rate will peak at 5.4% in December, up sharply from a 5% forecast in the last survey. The latest prediction implies at least one more 25-basis-point increase by the Fed. More rate increases, later rate cutsThe Fed last month held its benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%, its first pause after 10 consecutive increases since March 2022. Market participants overwhelmingly expect the central bank will raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at its July 25-26 meeting, according to the federal-funds futures market.Economists are also pushing back their estimates for when the Fed will eventually start cutting rates. In the latest survey, only 10.6% of economists expected a rate cut in the second half of this year, down from 36.8% in the last survey. The majority of economists, nearly 79%, expected the Fed will cut rates in the first half of 2024 as the unemployment rate rises. Some 42.4% expected that first cut will come in the second quarter.Economists are relatively sanguine about the impact of the end of the government’s pandemic-era pause on student-debt payments, which allowed millions of Americans to avoid a big monthly bill for more than three years.The resumption of student-loan payments is expected to have a relatively minor impact this fall, shaving 0.2 percentage points, annualized, from consumer spending growth, measured from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of this year.“We will likely see some slowing in spending growth toward the end of this year as a result of the resumed payments denting certain households’ ability to consume, but we do not think the end to the payment pause will be widespread enough to have a significant effect on overall U.S. household spending,” said Wells Fargo chief economist Jay Bryson.https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-are-cutting-back-their-recession-expectations-74118938 | 2023-07-24 |
210 | 163 | A look at Sony's new money maker: Crunchyroll has 100M+ registered members and 11M paid subscribers | null | 34 comments | 2023-07-15 | World’s Top Anime Site Crunchyroll Is Sony’s New Money MakerWhen top anime streaming platform Crunchyroll was first gaining popularity as a pirated-video site in the mid-2000s, Japanese animation was considered a niche form of entertainment, appealing mainly to enthusiasts known as otaku. Today, it’s a $20 billion industry spanning streaming, games and merchandise, and the company’s hit series, such as One Piece and Demon Slayer, have drawn millions of US and European subscribers.Crunchyroll, now owned by Sony Group Corp., is setting its sights on India as a major growth market — one that could help the industry further expand from a made-in-Japan subculture into a mainstream and global phenomenon.The company, founded in 2006 by graduates of the University of California at Berkeley, started off as an anime-sharing site. It eventually began streaming only legitimate content, helped by investment from venture capitalists including former News Corp. President Peter Chernin and ownership by AT&T Inc.’s WarnerMedia. Now the largest anime-dedicated streaming platform in the world, it was bought by Sony in a $1.2 billion deal announced in 2020.Crunchyroll has more than 100 million registered members, including 11 million paid users, after rapid subscriber growth during the pandemic when people binge-watched exotic content. With growth in Western markets moderating, the anime giant is looking to India for its next breakthrough, according to President Rahul Purini. “In terms of percentage growth, India will be a significant driver of our growth,” Purini said in an interview ahead of a business trip next week to Mumbai, where he plans to meet potential partners. “They’re small numbers right now, but we believe they will become a significant portion of our subscriber base.”Crunchyroll is seeing more anime fans in new markets such as South America and Southeast Asia. Expansion in India, with its burgeoning youth population, could prove particularly helpful in turbocharging Sony’s efforts to boost its entertainment content business.In May, Sony Chief Executive Officer Kenichiro Yoshida shared the company’s long-term vision of increasing users of content, including music, games and movies, by over sixfold to 1 billion people. India is seen as a crucial battleground in that effort, particularly as China remains closed. US streaming services such as Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc. are also competing for a bigger audience in India, where the media and entertainment industry is expected to grow by around 10% annually to $60 billion in 2030.In India, Sony is also closing in on a merger with local TV and film business Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd., a deal that would create a $10 billion media giant. Sony bought Crunchyroll through affiliate Funimation, a US home-video distributor also running an anime streaming platform. The integration of the two companies during the pandemic was “the biggest challenge” but is well underway, according to Purini, a Funimation veteran. The migration of content and subscribers from Funimation to Crunchyroll is likely to be completed fairly soon, he said.Crunchyroll’s strategy for India is to acquire more content and to localize anime series using dubbing and subtitles in local languages such as Hindi. The streaming platform recently lowered its prices in the region, which at around $1 a month is roughly a 10th of the price for a comparable, middle-tier plan in the US.Ironically, the biggest challenge for Crunchyroll is its fight against illegal streaming websites, which are rampant in India. Crunchyroll believes its competitive pricing and unique features will eventually persuade users to opt for paid services. “If we do our job right, we can convince fans to switch over to an official site,” Purini said. “The other part is that we work in collaboration with our partners, whether it’d be Sony Pictures, whether it’d be our Japanese partners, using all the lawful means at our disposal to be able to talk to fans and address the anti-piracy issue.”Crunchyroll expects the anime industry will have more than 800 million fans globally by 2025 outside markets in China and Japan. Of those, around 200 million are expected to watch series on official websites, he said. The business is open to acquiring assets to grow in targeted markets, he added.Sony doesn’t reveal financial details for Crunchyroll, and Purini declined to share detailed sales or profit numbers. Analysts have said that while anime is still a small part of Sony’s chips-to-movies business empire, it’s emerging as a key growth area. Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation on Sony to a “buy” on Thursday, citing expectations for Crunchyroll. Analyst Minami Munakata estimates that in five years, the anime site will account for 36% of all profit at Sony’s picture’s segment, which includes its Hollywood studio and content business, up from just 1% in the year ended in March.“Given that Crunchyroll is being rolled out in more areas and that demand for dedicated anime streaming services is likely to increase in regions other than North America as the growth of Japanese anime continues overseas, we expect the number of Crunchyroll paid subscribers will increase in the next five years, with regions other than North America becoming the main drivers,” she said in a note.“Japanese anime is worth more outside of Japan than inside now, and this growth will continue,” Omdia senior analyst James McWhirter said, noting strong box office results for titles such as Demon Slayer and Jujutsu Kaisen. He noted that some anime is now being produced outside Japan, including in the US and China.“Local anime is also challenging Japanese anime, but also supporting the overall growth of the market,” McWhirter said. “The pie will get bigger.”The biggest competitor to Crunchyroll right now is Netflix, which is also betting big on growing anime fandom. Anime is a popular category among Netflix users in Japan, while Crunchyroll isn’t offering its streaming service in Japan to avoid competing with its local partners. More than half of Netflix’s global subscribers outside Japan watched at least one anime title in 2021, and time spent watching anime has been increasing, according to the company.Purini said he welcomed competition from Netflix as well as Amazon and Walt Disney Co., as their investments could help grow anime’s overall audience. The new fans, he said, could later turn to Crunchyroll to explore the category more deeply.The company also remains dedicated to its so-called flywheel strategy of offering fans a broad range of services from streaming and theatrical releases to anime-related merchandise. In addition to its expansion in India, he said, Crunchyroll is also discussing the use of new technologies such as AR and VR in partnerships with big tech companies.“We want to be everything for someone rather than something for everyone,” Purini said. | 2023-07-24 |
211 | 121 | HD vs. Lowe’s for long term? | null | 138 comments | 2023-07-15 | I’m from Australia, and I’ve been investing in the Nasdaq for a hot minute. I’m interested in HD or Lowes (or both) and just want some insight from people from the U.S. on these two companies.We have Bunnings in Aus (which I imagine is somewhat similar) and home improvement is forever on the rise for obvious reasons. Anyway here are my Q’s:Is one more affordable than the other?Whats the customer sentiment like for both? - If you’re a tradesman which one would you go to?Is one more affordable or trusted than the otherFor holding longterm, which one would you prefer and why?Thanks in advance. | 2023-07-24 |
212 | 57 | What indicators have you found to be most useful? | null | 121 comments | 2023-07-15 | New to the game and have had decent success but I'm still learning all those indicators. I'm currently relying on MA and TSI but not sure I even have those properly customized. I'm just an idiot who stares at a computer and has somehow made thousands of dollars this past month but hoping to better my understanding. | 2023-07-24 |
213 | 8 | How do you value a stock ? Basic question but there's more | null | 14 comments | 2023-07-15 | I was just thinking, and realised I don't actually know how to properly value a stock as the market does."As the market does" what do I mean by thisLet's say I have my own model/prediction about a growth stock, that in exactly 10 years will completely stop making progress, and will just keep making the same amount of money.I'm a long term investor, I will predict future revenues - profits, because If the stock stops growing according to my thesis, nothing changes, then revenue doesn't matter - margin won't change it will all magically just become static and flat, profits is the only thing that stays the company's asset the way I see it in this hypothetical made up scenario.So then, I'm left with this model, that will value a stock based on profits the company will be making in 10 years, what value could that be according to the market ? If the company pay a dividend, is that gonna be the factor that defines the company's value, either dividend, wasted investments, or investments into growth, so it becomes more of a growth stock again, unless it becomes a dividend, so is this whole thing about dividends ? Because why would I buy a stock if it doesn't make me moneyHow do I convert dividends into stock value ? What has the market usually agreed upon on average ?I may sound confused because I'mDon't want to start arguments here, If I just forget about P/E ratios and why this should have a P/E of 20 and that of 40 and stuff that makes little sense to me (yeah kinda works sometimes, until it doesn't, I don't know), it all looks like some sort of ponzi scheme or something, like all imaginary, no real way to value a stock, just human psychology, so now I'm totally confused about how to value anything, money isn't realAnyone got some clarity to this ? What am I missing or not undersandingWhat I forgot to ask about the dividends was, is it like, is there like a formula agreed upon that say some shit like 10 years * dividends$ * some number = value, even though it may still fluctuate and not be in total corellation to the conventionally agreed value because of human emotions, or further made up predictions about the company's future and it's ability to pay more or less dividends, without all the noise, just pure signal, what is a value of a stock conventionally ?Edit: I agree that I cannot predict events that will influence the market, it's another layer of complexity, but even if everything I predicted happened, I still don't know how to value a stock, that is what bothers me and why I'm making this post asking for clarity | 2023-07-24 |
214 | 14 | Please poke holes in Peter Schiff’s Theory | null | 39 comments | 2023-07-15 | I think Peter Schiff makes sense on economics, but not his wacky political beliefs (like disbanding the USDOT - ironically stated after he just flew US to London…I guess it was just luck he is still alive, not the FAA).Anyway, on his most recent podcast (Episode 906): https://schiffradio.com he reiterates some ideas he has been saying for many months. He acknowledged the most recent CPI released this past week, but insists that inflation is going to reverse and go higher.His reasons:The dollar is weakening, and will continue to weaken significantly, because:-The debt ceiling was suspended, allowing for more money printing to finance continuously expandingUS Budget deficits-The BRICS nations are planning a gold-backed currency, so they are moving away from the dollar-China and Saudi Arabia are exploring ways to trade oil using the Chinese Yuan, instead of the USDollar-He anticipates that at the first sign of trouble, the Fed will go back to more QEBecause of our ever-widening trade deficit, a weaker dollar causes imported goods to be more expensive, adding to inflationary pressures.A weaker dollar causes commodity prices to rise, adding to inflationary pressures.I am not an economist, just trying to learn. The above seems to make sense... | 2023-07-24 |
215 | 23 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=Elr7S0cuIFB0pCpnEJdlkMoVk1nh7rKQRUX7lamxcjvRTQrT_CRvcUiVLM5yLvGx_KnX2fr9T-Y_-533UYvj6g-Z0pQmi7OidHjhle72zgcHFB2jazVWHDcun-tzDHhHDP8q7g671ZamlAaVwVzPKz6jVLRl4pqli_Ynb3BRbHBB6eETcgeO7XmaWjzC7BXaQ_XidSw_s3XBO-0MSYorjxHbU89TA7XxscmgbSmM9vlSuvh4FwPg886602nB4Rs8YtxIOzP2Ag3e_PHnZIktwXNdRavSppCIvLZ_5ZJDngEd7oG6kgUIl4hJ-tKi9FJUCYTMgTdHqiJoDs4VqaFk4Y-O29Vmy3EHLc7jP4K5Az4oVoinHUW-CfYpQ4B8lg&zp=tla7k11JxghvMhy2VUJQbqhdgX4WBFvWMg_LpyWyYVxLXL4b-irfJany0DJNehBAMhzbC5ZNKp97rbZk3UUJsSKyqgwlOyRaDZqxIJ7kUUVIoS19f2IrbNiJzDmRed7r9XKo05xIX3yXCLVw7QQWGf0axCgCjYMPkttFpF52HjAm6bDPPZDgYqeOqk0 | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
216 | 18 | Is now a good time to exit oil and invest in inverse oil ETFs? | null | 73 comments | 2023-07-15 | I believe now is the time to invest in inverse oil etfs. Oil should not be this high right now, it tends to get around $75/barrel and dip to the mid 60s time and time again. I’m planning on Monday investing $6k into DRIP. Almost certain oil will begin to slide and will exit my DRIP position when I’ve made my 8% profit, which would only require oil to dip to $72 in under 2 weeks (factoring in decay). Tell me if this idea is going to cost me or make me money? | 2023-07-24 |
217 | 3 | "Buy/Sell/Hold" aggregate? | null | 7 comments | 2023-07-15 | Is there a site/product that simply shows a list of stocks that aggregates overall buy, sell, hold sentiments? Not necessarily looking for in depth analysis (that can be done separately) just a list that can be filtered on sentiment at the current moment? | 2023-07-24 |
218 | 217 | FTC loses appeals court bid to temporarily block Microsoft-Activision deal | null | 58 comments | 2023-07-14 | ATVI is trading 3.3% AH, at $93.05The U.S. Appeals Court for the Ninth Circuit late on Friday denied the Federal Trade Commission’s appeal of a judge’s decision that would have stopped Microsoft from completing its $68.7 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision BlizzardA federal judge in San Francisco, after five days of court hearings, ruled against the FTC on Tuesday, and the federal agency filed its appeal on Wednesday. | 2023-07-24 |
219 | 959 | Amazon $AMZN Prime Day broke its sales records and achieved its highest sales in the company's history, with shoppers spending $12.7 billion | null | 301 comments | 2023-07-14 | Amazon $AMZN Prime Day broke its sales records and achieved its highest sales in the company's history, with shoppers spending $12.7 billion on over 375 million items over the two-day event.Read more:https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/13/amazon-boasts-record-sales-for-prime-day-as-us-shoppers-spent-12-7-billion-during-the-sales-event/ | 2023-07-24 |
220 | 123 | Why do households still have so much cash? | null | 192 comments | 2023-07-14 | If you had to guess, how much money do American households have sitting in their bank accounts today compared to December 31, 2019?The answer: household checkable deposits is up a whopping 300% in the last 4 years. The more I dug into this the more confused I became.Here are the household asset levels for different asset types over the last four years.Q4 2019 ——>Q1 2023 in millionsCheckable deposits: from 980,550 to 4,188,022Money market: from 2,159,362 to 3,175,515Time deposits: from 9,552,703 to 9,525,293Corporate equities: from 29,122,532 to 35,820,586The growth rate of Checkable deposits has far outpaced other asset classes at a time where the big banks are not offering competitive interest rates. The pre COVID all time high was just 1.26 trillion.I know the explanation that most will jump on is that the 1% is just hoarding cash but that doesn’t fully explain the jump.The data splitting out the data by wealth brackets hasn’t been updated since Q2 2022 but prior to then there was a 6X jump for the 50-90th wealth percentile and the bottom half in wealth’s bank account balances grew from 102,426 pre COVID to 277,455 in Q2 2022.Most of the jump occurred during COVID stimulus spending but has still grown slightly over the last four quarters of data.I found this baffling and was wondering if anyone has a good explanation for this.My main ideas are that people have saved up money to pay off student loans that’s still sitting in bank accounts or that a lot of people are saving up to buy houses but I was wondering if anyone else had any better ideas.Nevertheless, there is a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines. If households decide to pile more money into the stock market they have a lot of ammunition to power the bull market higher.https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL193020005Q | 2023-07-24 |
221 | 5 | r/Stocks Weekly Thread on Meme Stocks Saturday - Jul 15, 2023 | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-15 | The meme stock scheduled posts will now run weekly and post Saturday afternoon and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here!Full list of meme stocks here. This will be updated every once in a while.Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:Previous meme stock threadsGeneral discussionsThe original GME megathread with a ton of useful informationUse Finviz for aggregated news on your favorite stockAn important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks.Lastly if you need professional help:Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now.Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text “HOME” to 741-741 | 2023-07-24 |
222 | 13 | /r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jul 15, 2023 | null | 142 comments | 2023-07-15 | This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.Some helpful links:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
223 | Vote | Hi, Reddit! I’m Master Sergeant Kristopher Tomes. I’m a PJ in the U.S. Air Force Special Warfare and have been a part of numerous lifesaving missions across the world. I’m looking for the best of the best to join our team. I’ll be answering questions on Wed, 7/26 at 12:30 p.m. CT. Ask me anything! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=dRxDY3lXRaIqA6CD4VXRkIrydTz6ve0MGUnxiX0Lfn9vjRufGiS47K9PsMnSXFm5z6yq9j5uVuGvKHoUhqh4cks9SetudaN8MrKoSU8pCX7cuenQDTzm4P4955EM1EveTh403YVOSx7Flxn0AOebcBBx4CR-qAWj61Mhof9xTlcR8kUYDaaFzRc1nwc0qiesgn5eNpCeyOIXk_AceHUquCMCuD13PGaYMgwpQzgyvphQYe7yS9vO-8t9RA2pq-lwjet33GZ49zlZrCQLFuVC0J6ROJE825924vbSZjiHH0ToU1UtCpvp06Fo86VdykLXEEAaRkmkWqAYdYNsQTD7_2_QilgCTCnDfK0ju7xFeNwtWqSlzZj8leP08WbgiiCf&zp=si5mzc0jlw57RrHbNHL8zgHMkigw1COhePg7eSqeFlDGVzQUs6MBdeIWacgHNCHN6FOlqH6VCdrJfj-o6du0U26OdGZ2Gz0MS-HSCBirHz6An9Us1BLj2Md_Fxw50eiOJH5xX3cfB7pUDU-bCKEG_T_0JKgDzAqE8l-KQPDruiDFmnAPGTIc8xsmxfkmsQiDiAr1Te4GapI8TkwNppvMH27jwsfH8Pa1ec0ZFT64EyaeH41KP4E2Sy4ZBjfRGWOmWRIBREj8s30X2EdWyq8l09Upp5z5UoVUCAYLpSp39qtt4ZefC18vaf5bOiqRIzd6qK1bZD6aDNPfxaH-BA | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
224 | 279 | Americans Haven't Felt This Good About the Economy in Almost Two Years | null | 305 comments | 2023-07-14 | A commonly followed measure of consumer confidence in the US economy just increased to the highest level since September 2021.The first July reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a reading of 72.6 on Friday. The print came in significantly higher than the 65.5 economists had expected and reflected a 13% increase from the month prior. That marks the fastest pace since December 2005, when the economy was recovering from Hurricane Katrina."The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in the release.Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including: A month of largely strong economic data, upbeat reports to kick-off second quarter earnings and waning fears of a second Federal Reserve rate hike in the back half of the year propelling the 2023 stock market rally higher.A 19% surge in long-term business conditions and a 16% increase in short-run business conditions were the primary drivers behind Friday's surprise print, according to the University of Michigan. The report did, however, include a slight uptick in consumers inflation expectations.The expectations for inflation over the next year are now at 3.4%, up from 3.3% in June but down from the highs of 5.4% in April 2022. Analysts had anticipated one-year inflation expectations to tick down to 3.1%"Easing concerns about a recession, which had been garnering a ton of headlines in the media for most of the year, may have helped push sentiment and expectation higher," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote on Friday.The Friday release follows a week of upbeat economic data. On Wednesday, the Consumers Prices Index for June came in cooler than projected, rising at its slowest pace since March 2021. On Thursday, the Producer Prices Index painted a similar picture. The labor market meanwhile, continued to show resilience with weekly jobless claims of 237,000 coming in lower than expectations for 250,000 claims and below the week prior's 249,000 claims.Last week's June jobs report showed the labor market is cooling with nonfarm payroll additions coming in short of expectations for the first time in 15 months. But economists were quick to note that the economy still added 209,000 jobs, the unemployment ticked lower to 3.6% and average hourly earnings grew 4.4% from the year prior.At scale, that data paints a picture of a tight labor market where Americans have jobs while prices for goods continue to decrease.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-havent-felt-this-good-about-the-economy-in-almost-two-years-151453360.html | 2023-07-24 |
225 | 393 | JPM Net Income Surge 67% YoY to $14.5 Billion | null | 122 comments | 2023-07-14 | JPMorgan Chase reported second-quarter earnings Friday that topped analysts’ expectations as the company benefited from higher interest rates and growing interest income.Earnings: $4.37 per share adjusted vs. $4 per share Refinitiv estimateRevenue: $42.4 billion vs. $38.96 billion estimateNet income surged 67% to $14.5 billion, or $4.75 per share. When excluding the impact of its First Republic acquisition in early May — a $2.7 billion “bargain purchase gain” from the government-brokered takeover, as well as loan reserve builds and securities losses tied to the purchase — earnings were $4.37 per share.Revenue rose 34% to $42.4 billion as JPMorgan took advantage of higher rates and solid loan growth. Revenue gains were fueled by a 44% jump in net interest income to $21.9 billion, which topped the StreetAccount estimate by roughly $700 million. Average loans climbed 13%, while deposits fell 6%.Shares of the bank climbed more than 2% in premarket trading.JPMorgan has been a standout recently on several fronts. Whether it’s about deposits, funding costs or net interest income — all hot-button topics since the regional banking crisis began in March — the bank has outperformed smaller peers.That’s helped shares of the bank climb 11% so far this year, compared with the 16% decline of the KBW Bank Index. When JPMorgan last reported results in April, its shares had their biggest earnings-day increase in two decades.This time around, JPMorgan will have the benefit of owning First Republic after its U.S.-brokered takeover in early May.The acquisition, which added roughly $203 billion in loans and securities and $92 billion in deposits, may help cushion JPMorgan against some of the headwinds faced by the industry. Banks are losing low-cost deposits as customers find higher-yielding places to park their cash, causing the industry’s funding costs to rise.That’s pressuring the industry’s profit margins. Last month, several regional banks disclosed lower-than-expected interest revenue, and analysts expect more banks to do the same in coming weeks. On top of that, banks are expected to disclose a slowdown in loan growth and rising costs related to commercial real estate debt, all of which squeeze banks’ bottom lines.Lenders have begun setting aside more loan-loss provisions on expectations for a slowing economy this year. JPMorgan is expected to post a $2.72 billion provision for credit losses, according to the StreetAccount estimate.The bank won’t be able to sidestep downturns faced in other areas, namely, the slowdown in trading and investment banking activity. In May, JPMorgan said revenue from those Wall Street activities was headed for a 15% decline from a year earlier.Finally, analysts will want to hear what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has to say about the health of the economy and his expectations for banking regulation and consolidation.Wells Fargo also reported earnings Friday, and Citigroup results are on deck. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Tuesday. Goldman Sachs discloses results Wednesday.https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/14/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-2q-2023.html | 2023-07-24 |
226 | 206 | “The bear market is officially over,” Bank of America’s top strategist Savita Subramanian declared in a Friday message to clients. | null | 115 comments | 2023-07-14 | Subramanian noted the S&P has returned 19% on average in the 12 months immediately following a 20% rally from a bottom; this would send the S&P to an all-time high of about 5,100.There's more upside left in stocks after a new bull market started on Thursday, according to Bank of America."After crossing the +20% mark from the bottom, the S&P 500 continued to rise over the next 12 months 92% of the time," BofA said.Additionally, stocks do well after the 20% bull market threshold is reached, based on historical data. That's based on data since the 1950s and is compared to a 12-month winning ratio of just 75% and an average overall 12-month return of 9%."We don't put a lot of stock (pun intended) in arbitrary definitions, but note that after crossing the +20% mark from the bottom, the S&P 500 continued to rise over the next 12 months 92% of the time, returning 19% on average," Subramanian said.The S&P inched up 0.1% to just shy of 4,300 Friday, set to close at its highest price since last April; the index is now up 23% since it bottomed out at 3,491 in October, when the S&P crashed nearly 30% in a span of 10 months.The S&P 500 rose to its highest level in more than a year Friday, sending stocks into a technical bull market but leading to a split among experts about whether the rally will keep on chugging or falter as it grapples with concerns that prices are running too hot. | 2023-07-24 |
227 | 153 | The US economy is sending mixed signals, and it's hard to predict what's going to happen next. There are so many conflicting economic signal | null | 121 comments | 2023-07-14 | The US economy is sending mixed signals, and it's hard to predict what's going to happen next. There are so many conflicting economic signals and contradictory data:• The stock market signals optimism but bond markets are predicting a recession• Manufacturing surveys are showing trouble but service sector measures are healthy, an odd imbalance.• Even GDP and income measures disagree on economic activity.• Housing data is mixed too (based on permits vs construction spending).• Sentiment surveys are more downbeat than hard data on growth and jobs.Hard data has been coming in well above expectations, while soft surveys have disappointed. | 2023-07-24 |
228 | 113 | Nvidia $NVDA has invested $50 million in Recursion Pharmaceuticals $RXRX, an AI drug discovery platform, which has sent its stock up by 78% | null | 14 comments | 2023-07-14 | Nvidia $NVDA has invested $50 million in Recursion Pharmaceuticals $RXRX, an AI drug discovery platform, which has sent its stock up by 78%.AI drug discovery has quickly become one of the hottest markets for investment in the startup sector. AI is transforming how new drugs are discovered, enabling faster and cheaper development.Morgan Stanley expects AI to help develop an additional 50 drugs with an extra $50B in sales in the next decade.AI in drug discovery will revolutionize the industry. AI is already being used by drugmakers to discover new drugs, speeding up and reducing the cost of the long and expensive drug development process.The use of AI in drug discovery can lead to the discovery of new drugs that can help cure diseases and improve the quality of life for people.(Other AI drug discovery platforms, including Exscientia, AbCellera Biologics, and Relay Therapeutics, also rose on the news). | 2023-07-24 |
229 | 17 | Quantum Computing:
Company Discussion | null | 60 | 2023-07-14 | Hey y’all, I’ve fallen down the rabbit hole that is quantum computing and I’m convinced it will have some significant impact and scalable use cases within the coming years (5-10…+?).
When it comes to investment opportunities relating to emerging/experimental technologies, it can be difficult for retail investors to find early-stage direct investment opportunities.
BUT, the standout player, IonQ ($IONQ) is publicly traded. Here are some reasons why I’m bullish and think IonQ is oh, so special!
IonQ uses trapped ion/photonic computing!! This is really neat because it means their quantum computers do not need to be kept at FREEZING temps like QCs being created by Google, IBM, Rigetti and most others. (Among many other advantages)
Compared to the trapped ion approach, the qubits generated via superconducting suffer from short coherence times, high error rates, limited connectivity, and higher estimated error-correction overhead
2. Management is fairly new to running a public company but they seem excited and dedicated based off interviews and press releases: “The lead is ours. And we have full intention to take advantage of it.”
3. IonQ is the first and only quantum hardware integrated with all major cloud platforms and software kits!
4. 80% of their system is made outside of the US
5. 55+ US patents, 136 US patents pending, 7 foreign patents, 99 foreign patents pending, 8 US trademarks, 11 US trademarks pending, 17 international trademarks, 7 international trademarks pending
6. Their approach for the near term is to form a limited number of strategic partnerships to develop solutions that open up quantum advantage in select industry sectors (chem, pharma, finance, logistics).
7. What I think sets them apart the most, besides trapped ion, is their focus on scalability. Since their inception, Peter Chapman, their CEO, has been stressing the importance of their QCs being modular, economical, and serviceable. THIS, in my opinion, is the way. Whereas Google and IBM will have huge, frozen, immobile QCs available to contract via the cloud, IonQ will have a portable, scalable product.
$IONQ | 2023-07-24 |
230 | 0 | UI path is the fingers/arms/legs AI is the brain? | null | 7 | 2023-07-15 | Is this a fair analogy. AI on its own, can't really do much it needs to have something to control to manipulate or act.
I saw UIPATH said this, and another doomsayer claiming that if AI gets a hold of RPA it will be able to start interacting in the real world.
Thoughts on this? Seems like we are going down uncharted waters but UIpath might be a critical piece in the AI world? | 2023-07-24 |
231 | 7 | Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=zl2DzSyL8k9dhPcfUW3RDL7AAbqIC9_ObyX43Se2ZyJRjbCbfwN__CTFuidCIsRONzkvNOVFWeU8XUXbQ4Wo13LMDJ6cO2nkn4cmfleqqKVVdmkPWhi4bbzESotN4H89P5XeLG8V8uJ1e-3YkOJ05VWZktSCKiIMg29uy1e5w7pZTrDHXaPv__qKKIgddPlBZZMAkdhT8Am6aafYwGHYgaIaLBYTY7ZM8W3PkpQKaDvP-6vVMUlBquS4vkav81NH5-hHhD-2jTzynfHn58P8f23Gqm_xZC2-e3q2Qtaz3DMiy49-BdEeR46fLumubh5GqcUV0yyrbm7c_c0BvaM1wflna5rD-nfl4bxYXu1vsDjE7hSL874bMjCFUMourKPDaPyNw9ET&zp=OZFCltuLBGC4jtHWZeXpaEYu_LhNHEGVDACEDq6-cDRbl-Dy6vuG_Fl9DEwXcRDw7pfWkbhe2REeZAIBnddagbWJv0SvonkW0Wq675YgtTZPqMPVghPKxjN_bvIjfXs-5nhSu41hPv6Oqzw6ktOPwu5gaKJ4Cl9GK1jMq9LohN4l1xvO4HH8WvWFajgx9wW9toQlB5LM6Z7EYKakyEXBrVyqDiXzsStAj7NPL-JZClV9uo1rmrIrGoiM6JwnBravf4qn9Q | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
232 | 17 | Under Armour (UAA) - Can it recover?
Company Discussion | null | 35 | 2023-07-14 | If we go by UAA's numbers alone, some of it looks really appealing: a P/E of 8.85 with a forward P/E of 13.84, ROE% is at 21.24, and they even pay a tiny dividend. On the other hand, its cash flow has been eaten into in the last fiscal year, beginning with over a billion and ending with almost 300 million less.
Apparel brands are always unpredictable, as they seem predicated on trends, and nobody knows what the next trendy brand is. Excluding the COVID era, when everything was going up, UAA seemed to have hit its recent peak in 2019 when it was trading at almost $27 (it's at $7.61 at the time I'm writing this). It was even considered a serious challenger to Nike. Then, like so many other apparel brands, it just...faded from popularity.
Can UAA return to its heights, or will it be cast off like every other brand that can't seem to cut into Nike's market share for very long? | 2023-07-24 |
233 | 13 | Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023 | null | 0 | 2023-07-14 | Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023.
Dow closes 100 points higher Friday on solid earnings, registers best week since March: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed Friday as strong earnings results from some of the biggest banks and companies kicked off earnings season.
The 30-stock Dow added 113.89 points, or 0.33%, to close at 34,509.03 and mark its fifth consecutive day of gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 0.10% to close at 4,505.42. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.18%, ending at 14,113.70. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched their highest intraday levels since April 2022.
On a weekly basis, the Dow notched its best performance since March, up 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.3%.
UnitedHealth shares lifted the blue-chip index Friday as its top performer. The insurance giant jumped more than 7% after it reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue. The company also raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance. UnitedHealth was also the biggest gainer in the S&P 500′s health-care sector, which advanced 1.5%.
JPMorgan Chase rose 0.6% after its second-quarter earnings topped expectations. The bank was boosted by higher interest rates and rising interest income. Wells Fargo inched down 0.3%, even though the bank posted better-than-expected results.
“What we’ve seen out of big bank earnings, especially JPMorgan, is pretty resilient,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments.
“We’re seeing right now [that] default rates are still historically incredibly low and not showing signs of skyrocketing higher. So that’s a good sign for consumers and the economy,” Ladner added.
Expectations for this season are downbeat, with analysts forecasting a roughly 7% year-over-year drop in S&P 500 earnings, according to FactSet. That would mark the worst earnings season since the second quarter of 2020, when S&P 500 profits dropped 31.6%.
Investors’ sentiment has been lifted by soft inflation reports this week. The latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated and built on trader optimism from the June consumer price index data, which came out Wednesday. Investors are now considering whether a strong economy illustrated by the recent data could push stocks higher by the end of the year.
“The Goldilocks scenario is alive and well, in terms of declining inflation pressures and [there’s] still fairly robust economic growth. So it’s a pretty good backdrop for risk assets,” said Ladner.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
NASDAQ Down 5 Straight During July Monthly Options Expiration Week
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1982, the Friday of monthly options expiration week has a bearish bias for DJIA declining 23 times in 41 years with two unchanged years, 1991 and 1995. On Friday the average loss is 0.23% for DJIA and 0.25% for S&P 500. NASDAQ’s record is even weaker, down 25 of 41 years with an average loss of 0.38%. DJIA posts the best full-week performance, up 24 of 41 with an average 0.37% gain. However, NASDAQ has been weakest, down 22 times and the last five straight. The week after monthly options expiration leans bearish for NASDAQ over the longer-term with an average loss. In recent years the track record had been improving until 2015’s across the board, greater than 2% loss.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Path to Lower Inflation is Now Clear
The June CPI report was a positive surprise, both in terms of the headline numbers as well as the underlying details.
Headline inflation rose 0.2% in June, which translates to a 2.2% annual pace. Over the past three months, inflation’s averaged about 2.7%, and over the last year it’s up 3.0%. That’s well off the peak pace of over 9% exactly a year ago.
In my opinion, the reason for the decline is obvious when you look at the chart below. Energy prices drove the inflation surge in 2022, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices have now declined 17% over the past year, pulling inflation lower. The good news is that food inflation is also easing a lot, rising at an annual pace of just 1.3% over the past 3 months. Remember the surge in egg prices? Well, egg prices have fallen 21% over the past 3 months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All this of course has been occurring for a few months now and shouldn’t be a big surprise.
The problem until now was that “core inflation,” i.e., inflation once you strip out energy and food prices, remained elevated. But we got good news on that front.
Core inflation rose just 0.16% in June, which translates to a 1.9% annual pace — the slowest monthly pace since August 2021! That’s great, but as you can see below, the 3-month pace remains above 4%. So, we’ve yet to see a consistent deceleration in core inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is looking for.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Positive signs
We realize that one month does not make a trend, but a lot of the underlying details point to downward momentum. Let’s look at a few of these.
Used and new vehicle prices, which make up 9% of the core inflation “basket,” have reversed a lot over the past year. However, used car prices rose in April and May, reversing some of that momentum. But things look to have turned around once again, with used car prices falling 0.5% in June. In fact, prices are likely to fall further over the next few months based on private used car auction data (Ryan pointed this out in his previous blog as well).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Moreover, the auto production supply chain bottlenecks are being resolved, and therefore we’re seeing vehicle production increase. As a result, prices for new vehicles have fallen about 0.4% over the past three months, and that downtrend is likely to continue given increased supply.
The big one is housing inflation, which Ryan and I have been talking a lot about over the past year. Housing makes up 40% of core inflation, but importantly, it does not include home prices. Instead, it’s based on rents. The problem is that there is a significant lag between official rental inflation and private rents data. Private data from Apartment List shows that rents have decelerated from a peak of 18% year-over-year pace to zero as of June! Official data lags this data by about 12 months or so and it’s taken a while to reflect market reality.
The good news is that official rental inflation appears to be turning lower. Rental inflation was averaging a 9% annual pace between June 2022 and February 2023. However, that’s fallen to about 6% over the past 4 months. That’s still higher than the 2018-2019 average of about 3-3.5%. But given what we’re seeing in market rents, we expect housing inflation to continue decelerating and that’s going to pull core inflation down in a big way later this year and into 2024 as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What about the rest?
Fed Chair Powell has cited “core services ex housing” as still being elevated. We believe it’s their way of saying,
“Yes, we see vehicle prices heading lower, and acknowledge the lags in housing inflation data; but we want to see the rest of it fall”
But there’s good news on that front too.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve calculates something called the “Sticky Price CPI excluding food, energy, and shelter.” Simply put, it measures inflation for items whose prices typically don’t change frequently.
In June, this sticky price measure was flat. Over the past 3 months it’s running at a 1.4% annual pace, well below the peak of 7.3% we saw 15 months ago. A key piece of this is restaurant food prices, which have slowed down a lot recently on the back of falling food prices. But even things like airfares, daycare and pet care services inflation have been falling.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see why the June inflation report was positive from so many angles. A low reading is positive by itself, but it also confirmed what we know from other sources about what to expect going forward.
Perhaps the best news is that inflation is falling, and poised to fall even further, without a rise in unemployment and an economic slowdown. A year ago, Federal Reserve officials and many economists were saying that we probably need to go into a recession for inflation to slow down, and that aggressive rate hikes by the Fed would push us into one.
Instead, the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, close to 50-year lows. If real GDP growth clocks in around 2% for last quarter (as seems likely), that would mean the economy’s grown at a 2.5% pace over the past year. While inflation’s fallen from 9% to 3%. That’s huge!
NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally Ends on Friday
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
From its close on June 27 (the fourth from last trading day) through today, NASDAQ has gained 2.7% which makes this year’s NASDAQ midyear rally slightly better than average. Today’s gains were largely fueled by better than anticipated CPI reading. Provided this translates into a better-than-expected PPI report tomorrow, additional gains are likely before NASDAQ’s midyear rally officially ends on Friday, July 14. The end of the rally also coincides with the historical seasonal mid-month July market peak in pre-election years. Since 1950, the second half of July has been weaker than the first half.
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Inflation Expectations Still on the Decline
Ahead of Wednesday's CPI, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCES) was released earlier this week and showed a continuation of the trend where consumer inflation expectations have been falling. Over the next 12 months, the Fed's survey showed that the median expected rate of inflation fell from 4.07% down to 3.83%. While still above its historical average of 3.4%, consumer expectations for inflation over the next year are down to the lowest level since April 2021. Over a longer time horizon, inflation expectations haven't fallen nearly as fast, but they didn't rise anywhere near as much as short-term expectations either. In the June survey, the median expected rate of inflation over the next three years fell from 2.98% down to 2.95%. While that reading barely budged, we would note that current expectations for inflation over the next three years are slightly below the long-term average. Unlike the FOMC, which ditched the term transitory 18 months ago, consumers have remained on team transitory.
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One issue which has the potential to push inflation higher is how consumers expect their incomes to change over time. In this month's survey, the median expected rate of earnings growth increased from 2.80% up to 2.98% which is right around the high end of its range from the last two years. As shown in the chart below, while this series has tested the 3% level multiple times, it hasn't been able to bust through it. As it pertains to inflation, that's a good thing, because if consumers expect their incomes to increase, they're probably also less likely to push back on higher prices. At the same time, the fact that this reading has settled into a new higher range relative to its long-term average suggests that getting back down to and staying at levels of inflation that prevailed before COVID may prove to be difficult.
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Small-caps Catch a Bid
Small-caps have caught a bid over the last few days with the Russell 2,000 ETF (IWM) rallying more than 3% since last Thursday's close. Over the same time frame, the large-cap S&P 500 is up just 0.3%.
While large-cap indices have recently traded to 52-week highs, small-caps are still well below 2023 highs made back in Q1. As shown below, though, IWM is currently attempting to break above the top end of the sideways range it has been in over the last month. If it can do that, the highs from earlier in the year will come into sight.
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The Russell 2,000 (IWM) chart looks pretty interesting over a multi-year time frame. As shown below, the pre-COVID high made in early 2020 has acted as strong support over the past year. While IWM fell sharply during the mini-banking crisis this March, it stopped going down once it reached this key support level, and then it traded sideways and consolidated throughout much of April and May. Going forward, it appears that the Russell has built a strong base over the past year to springboard off of if the bull market for US equities can continue.
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A chart that always captures our attention is the one below that shows Apple's (AAPL) market cap versus the combined market cap of all of the stocks in the small-cap Russell 2,000. Prior to COVID, Apple's market cap wasn't even close to the $2+ trillion market cap of the Russell 2,000. Since late 2021, though, the two have been battling it out. After its huge gain in Q2, Apple is currently in the lead at $2.96 trillion, but the Russell isn't too far behind at $2.81 trillion.
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Here We Go Again
“Here I go again on my own. Going down the only road I’ve ever known.”
-Here I Go Again by Whitesnake
One of the main reasons we came into 2023 overweight equities (when everyone else was talking recessions and bear markets) was the over-the-top negativity. Rarely is the crowd and obvious trade right when it comes to investing and we assumed should we get any good news, stocks could surprise to the upside. One of the most staggering signs of negativity was the median strategist in this Bloomberg survey was looking for negative stock returns in ’23.
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As we noted in Is Anyone Bullish? (from December 11, 2022), we’d never seen strategists this bearish heading into a new year. Then layer on the fact that stocks were down close to 20% in 2022 and the odds greatly favored a big bounce back year, as stocks were rarely down two years a in a row. Not to mention, the macro backdrop was on much better footing than the M2 is crashing, LEI is down, and yield curve fearmongers were telling us.
All that happened was that the first six months of this year was the second best start to a year since 2000 for the S&P 500, best start for the NASDAQ in 40 years and the best start ever for the NASDAQ-100.
Where are we now? Well, similar to the great Whitesnake song in the quote above, here I go again, down the only road I’ve ever known.
Apparently, the only road these strategists know is doubling down on lower prices, as they expect the most bearish second half EVER. We’ll gladly take the other side to this, as we expect stocks to gain nicely the rest of this year, likely to new all-time highs.
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Take note the other years they expected lower prices during the final six months of the year were 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021. All the S&P 500 did those years was gain 7.0%, 9.8%, 21.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, over the final six months. That comes out to a very impressive 12.2% average, not bad, not bad.
What also has my attention? We have some big inflation data out this week, but we’ve already seen some nice signs that inflation could surprise to the downside. First up, used cars accounted for nearly a third of the jump in inflation the past few years, but it is crashing lower, with used car prices experiencing their largest monthly drop since COVID. Given light auto production is running close to pre-COVID levels, this is another sign supply chains are working again and price pressures are abating.
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Speaking of supply chains, the New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index did jump last month, but it was coming off of the lowest level in history. Bottom line, supply chains are back to normal after years of disruptions.
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Along with supply chains and used car prices improving, we expect to see shelter take a big dive the second half of this year. Remember, shelter makes up more than 40% of CPI and it has stayed stubbornly high lately. Well, we’ve seen drastic improvements from private data places like Apartment List and Zillow, suggesting that the government’s data will likely follow suit soon.
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Lastly, we’ve been hearing a lot that the trillions of dollars in excess savings that consumers had over COVID was nearly all the way gone. The media are spinning this as a bearish event, as it means consumers aren’t saving anymore and they will run out of money to spend and keep the economy growing. Here’s the issue with that, the savings rate has been trending higher the past year and is more than two percent higher than it was in early 2022. The employment backdrop is still healthy, spending is solid and consumer confidence is improving. To us, all of that is positive.
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Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(N/A.)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :) | 2023-07-24 |
234 | 97 | Google is undervalued | null | 171 | 2023-07-14 | Just to let you guys know.
Google releasing Bard in Europe, 27 more languages etc.
If you play around with it it's basically as good as chatGPT.
It's all inhouse made by google run on their own servers as opposed to the coop openAI+microsoft are having.
I think Google will absolutely crush everyone at the AI game sooner or later.
Google mcap is lagging behind Microsoft but i have a feeling they will catch up | 2023-07-24 |
235 | 0 | First Cybertruck Production started in Giga-Texas | null | 33 comments | 2023-07-15 | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1680121747910148099Cybertrucks are going to be ramped up super fast and are expected to sell 60,000 units this year and more than 100,000 next year. Thanks to the single shot casting method which all these legacy autos like Ford, GM , BMW can not even think about, let alone designing itCybertrucks will revolutionize and disrupt trucks and will probably eat F150s lunch just like how Model 3 and Y revolutionized Sedans and SUVs. They already has a record smashing quarter, setting a record for highest deliveries ever. Tesla earnings Wednesday after hrs. Implied move about -/+ 7%.Now some people will comment but what about mArGiNs?https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tesla-peak-profit-margin-fsd/amp/Elon has a plan for that too. He is 10 steps ahead of any of these paid and biased Wall Street analysis. Once they prioritize and capture market share by killing legacy innovation-less companies like Ford GM and achieve +20% sales growth this year and next year, they will start selling, optimized and ramped up FSD/Autonomous packages for $15k each leading to higher profit margins down the line which are not priced in the stock right now." | 2023-07-24 |
236 | 23 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=GZKukb1ybZAnZDns26mMYY0JTQsK5HxkJznyYFHynq4Ct2IMEBnsrQv1Tkrv2xHoI8_1CkPQ9fKMmDKBZCoVnuc47ug4H6HKHc9KubPMR7NlLQnccRqVf5KDvDnCXVLauC69EpEWv0VxtVcMuqxzvNXLKavCc1Cz5jbX9SgfL-YN7NdzbGDOqXFHDlTu4mDXtSq4DCPX5IUnXovRAQpC_bMkvWkhktXtgyYY7pZBIBenpAtHToS8FT4aNqlv3jUW36HVgr3-ih40x_BYCIvXhS16I2sakH3gL7EZW-_K4rv8Q_a-IlGS3YfWBaHs79y_Rdz3ATz9Dc2JjEUAA4QEgZzUSL_mzcBmXjerojRq2TuT3o6fzAoB0pa2Z2gnoQ&zp=mCuQFLDI80efHH3AkEjVhgBODY279kvVBTJMGSdhbSVigktcTyFThWjcV3q60Wdyov-cNM3w6yBK8NLRSAF5xCHulAGfJ6qUylE-2ihjLjre6iVJG91cTV8pAyPyB70Uio25Nb6VrTR5kx1d4AfrHway63vvutTK_wWc7YCnrPwEagjovmPNQ6xjRD4 | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
237 | 3 | Tax Question. | null | 8 comments | 2023-07-14 | When selling a stock I know that if you sell before a year it’s considered “Short Gains” and you will be taxed at a high rate but what If I keep funding a stock with a recurring investment over a years time? Say it’s been 1 year & 1 month but my latest recurring investment was a week ago and I decided I wanted to sell and take some profits. How will I be taxed? Does the 1 year start the first time I invested in the stock or do I need to wait 1 year for each individual recurring purchase I make. | 2023-07-24 |
238 | 5 | Is the fed targeting 2% CPI or PCE? | null | 11 comments | 2023-07-14 | I keep seeing that PCE is the fed's preferred method of gauging inflation, and separately it's a well-known fact they are targeting 2%. But what inflation metric specifically are they targeting? Is it CPI or PCE? | 2023-07-24 |
239 | 0 | What are your thoughts about Weight Watchers (WW)? I prescribe weight loss medications, and they are very good. WW could be primed. | null | 26 comments | 2023-07-15 | I am in the medical field and prescribe a crap ton of Ozempic, Wegovy, Saxenda, Mounjaro, etc and these therapies are incredible for the diabetes population and also for weight loss.Yes you missed the gravy train with LLY and NVO. On a side note LLY has the upper hand with Mounjaro AND LLY has new triple combo gut boosters in the pipelines. Anyways that is a topic for another day.WW bought Sequence who can prescribe these GLP-1 therapies. This is pretty big IMO. I was hoping to get your thoughts on WW.I get also a lot of consults for obesity, and time and time again, patients report that for a high intensity intervention, the FIRST thing people say is WW. As Buffett would say, a MOAT is pretty important. So now we have WW, which can be successful, good brand recognition, and NOW the GLP-1 prescription possibility is massive. Patients would love to get access to these. I have patients calling in daily for samples. A telehealth company + WW to help with lifestyle IMO is massive.I plan to buy HEAVY into WW soon on next paycheck. Saxenda, which is based on victoza for DM should have patents expire soon, which may mean generic option, and it works very well. Rather than see a specialist or primary, these telehealth companies, with their lifestyle (still first line for weight loss) plus GLP-1 therapies, is going to be a good selling point IMO. I cannot think of another mainstream brand doing something this similar.Thoughts? | 2023-07-24 |
240 | 17 | What is your list of tools, blogs and podcasts for investment research and market updates? | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-14 | I think there are way too many tools and too much information out there these day, and I have developed a habit of keeping a shortlist of useful tools and information channels that I'll use for research and market updates. Below is my list, and I am curious to find out what others are using.[EDIT: removed reference to a substack from the original post]ToolsTradingview (http://www.tradingview.com/)Might be the best charting tool in the game. I know a number of professional traders who use this for their personal trading and researchfinviz (https://finviz.com/)Very useful stock screener and visualization tool. I often see people posting stock heat maps created with finviz on LinkedIn.Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/)Still the best free tool and database out there for basic researchSEC EDGAR (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/)the go-to place for searching through SEC filings. User interface can be better, but EDGAR is GOAT when it comes to company-level informationNewsletters/BlogsMatt Levine (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine)Considered by some to be the "Michael Jordan of financial writing". Incredibly amusing yet insightful stuff.Liberty Street Economics (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/)Wonky stuff, but NY Fed has somewhat made their blog more digestibleProfessor Siegel's Weekly Commentary (https://resources.wisdomtree.com/weekly-siegel-commentary/archive)Round-up of the latest in the market. US-centric but there's enough depth to see what the market narratives areHedder (http://www.hedder.com/)Newsletters written by former hedge fund managers and traders across different verticals and asset classesWell Fargo (https://www.wellsfargo.com/cib/insights/economics/weekly-commentary/)Comprehensive weekly report covering global markets. This kind of gets the job done for me since I don't have access to those by bulge brackets banksPodcastsThe Memo by Howard Marks (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-memo-by-howard-marks/id1521551570)a great podcast where Howard Marks (Oaktree) shares his thoughts on the investment landscape.Paul Donovan (UBS) daily audio (https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ubs-on-air-market-moves/id1447407862)short and sweet daily update, no bs (under 5 min each)Hedge Fund Tips(https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hedge-fund-tips-with-tom-hayes/id1493606182)good round-up of market narratives and latest trends from a buy-side perspectiveOdd Lots (https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots)Covers a ton of finance and market-related topics | 2023-07-24 |
241 | 29 | r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jul 14, 2023 | null | 499 comments | 2023-07-14 | This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.Some helpful day to day links, including news:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsMost fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earningsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Useful links:Investopedia page on fundamental analysis including Discounted Cash Flow analysis; see definition here and read their PDF on the topic.FINVIZ for fundamental data, charts, and aggregated newsEarnings Whisper for earnings detailsSee our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
242 | 9 | UBS downgraded Corning | null | 6 comments | 2023-07-14 | When I opened my portfolio this morning, I was shocked to see Corning/GLW (“Glassworks”) down so much. Apparently, it’s because UBS downgraded it from buy to neutral. I thought I’d post it here in case anyone else is wondering what happened. Their earnings are 7/25.I have a small portfolio my late father gave me a long time ago, which I didn’t touch until recently, just to add stuff. He was heavily into Corning for the dividend I suspect, and because they make a lot of the glass used in tech.It will be interesting to see what happens at earnings. I like the stock because it’s one of my best dividend stocks, although now it’s only like a 3% dividend. | 2023-07-24 |
243 | 9 | Gauge of market sentiment | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-14 | If you had to vote which scenario is more likely. Would you vote it is more likely this is a great opportunity to sell some of this huge rally before an incoming dip of >10% or the market will continue to new highs so you should keep bullish positioning fully on? Not a post to debate DCA strategy. | 2023-07-24 |
244 | 7 | Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=hqoRArvS6M7a7Wt-ev_qHmC72gt9kspWU337dYvdSw-rYS8IIycoffdDtI5yorj39RJi9ZyVGA2WqQAj6YSuonBc3ToMqIPH2fARZ6Hgl9_kz3rBwhu0HxAVuLhwacidVc5tyWDqE9D0mIIZ_p8KTWXh20NZTRFdeB_1u9A63SsciFRxteU7JT69nW6XJUVYJKlLrbhVtpZVc5XL9lXbnkAEWbXoJiK0CWHV7xwUZ9hlWhE9iBGxBTgib3BTvPce3BJG44HWKYl2iTeYMdOYGDBTbn94EB9MdCWddt4MG8aImEliQSFHrBmSYK1sJa4nXo6EziUhmbEDJ21uur-jBjnWpj8Kq5VXcsVhoekDM2evNNv_cWXpw1DiUuVfmXoFTLo9YhlZ&zp=-eU9pHw4Opou7CVzG2i1Lhg_iWQG81w7vCCLCLf9k3odN_JwNnbdVbM56R5TXuxNmpdG-yoAGPJRxW4irylc43LLd_EHdxyTSJxU6u1VvluRAduYO0MqfWYP6cb3BWCixBeUXKF5Y68AWNY-K0k9BfwIEpOINDR_dczLzxyY7icn12kTepFW5D0GcHeDCNIwQs_DdfkkOXwKm94-0iqNVXOYfngiyQiNv2Zckx7nJgofwywfi5pWfSJ1ehkeIBfxtRBh0w | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
245 | 538 | Ok seriously NVDA? | null | 728 comments | 2023-07-13 | The company is good. But it's not nearly profitable enough to be a $1.1T company. What on earth is driving this massive bump again this week?Disclosure I've owned NVDA since 2015 with no intention of selling beyond what I sold after earnings to lock in massive profits. I just don't understand what's going on at all with it now. | 2023-07-24 |
246 | 212 | QQQ close to 380. Did you successfully predict the bottom or are you still holding a lot of cash? | null | 218 comments | 2023-07-13 | I failed to predict the bottom of QQQ at last Dec, and I am still holding close to 30% cash at 3-month T-bill. A little bit remorseful but I am not very aggressive with risks.For those who still hold a large portion of cash, what is your plan? | 2023-07-24 |
247 | 604 | Disney could soon sell its TV assets as Iger says business ‘may not be core’ to the company | null | 255 comments | 2023-07-13 | https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/disney-ceo-iger-opens-door-to-unloading-tv-assets.htmlDisney CEO Bob Iger opened the door to selling the company’s linear TV assets as the business struggles during the media industry’s transition to streaming and digital offerings. Iger appeared on CNBC on Thursday, the morning after the company announced it would extend his contract by two years through 2026. He returned to the helm of the company in November after Disney’s board ousted Bob Chapek with a two-year contract through 2024 and plans to find a next successor. “After coming back, I realized the company is facing a lot of challenges, some of them self inflicted,” Iger told CNBC’s Faber on Thursday, noting he’s accomplished a lot of work in seven months but there’s more to be done.At the top of the list is assessing the traditional TV business, Iger said on Thursday. Disney owns a portfolio of TV networks, from broadcast station ABC to cable-TV channels like ESPN. Disney is going to be “expansive” in its thinking about the traditional TV business, leaving the door open to a possible sale of the networks. “They may not be core to Disney,” Iger said, adding the creativity that has come from those networks has been key for Disney. Cable-TV channel ESPN is in a different bucket, however. On that front, Iger said Disney is open to finding a strategic partner, which could take the form of a joint venture or offloading an ownership stake.Iger said when he had left the company he had predicted the future of traditional TV and had been “very pessimistic,” and has found since his return that he was right in his thinking, adding it’s worse than he expected. When Iger last spoke with Faber in February, soon after announcing a major restructuring at the company, he said he felt “a sense of obligation” to return to Disney and that his preference was to stay for his two-year contract. “We’ve gotten a lot done very quickly, significant cost reductions and significant realignment of the company,” Iger said. “But dealing head on with some of our biggest challenges.” | 2023-07-24 |
248 | 94 | Give me your highest conviction small cap | null | 260 comments | 2023-07-13 | Which of your small cap investments do you have the most conviction in?I’m looking for 1 more stock to invest in.Here’s mine:Company name: EnovixTicker: ENVXWhat they do: better batteriesReason for conviction: great leadership (ex-Enphase) and great product | 2023-07-24 |
249 | 0 | In your opinion How will student loan forgiveness impact the Stock Market? | null | 37 comments | 2023-07-14 | With the amount of people the loan forgiveness will cover will that extra money on hand for people be good for the stock market? What's your thoughts?What's your bull case?Whats your bear case?What a time to be alive is it weird that portfolios being green feel wrong? Am I the only one that feels like this?. | 2023-07-24 |
250 | 26 | buying the "top" | null | 47 comments | 2023-07-13 | Hello everyone it's been a year since I turned 18 and started my stonk market journey. I opened my account at around March of 2022, so for the most part I have experienced a rather bearish market, it has changed me, for the worse. I feel like I've missed out on the biggest pamp in the history in the stock market (for my time) and feel sick knowing I will never be able to buy spy at anywhere near 400 for a good while unless something catastrophic happens. I did not get into the AI hype train knowing well how much it could change the world. 2022 molded me into a pessimistic person going into 2023. I do not have any losses other then the plays I did not take. Okay that's it. Just wanted to complain. One more thing, the top is never in. You just have to keep buying... | 2023-07-24 |
251 | 0 | WHO aspartame announcement: Celanese? What else? | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-14 | Anybody have thoughts on how to capitalize on the WHO aspartame announcement? My gut is that it won't affect consumer behavior one bit, but I'm willing to put some money on the opposite.I was thinking that Celanese could be a good bet. There has been some recent hype around it and, although it's a big conglomerate (the farthest thing from a pure play), I think it owns Sunett which is one of the more recognized acesulfame-K brands.But more generally I'm interested in whether y'all know more about how to bet on acesulfame-K. I think most of the patents have expired so there may not be a good way if I want to stick with US equities. But you tell me.Disclosures: Outside of non-sector-specific indexes, I don't own any sweetener or food/drink companies or anything else that seems related. I don't own Celanese. | 2023-07-24 |
252 | Vote | Um eine Terrororganisation von innen zu stürzen, gehen die Agentinnen Cruz und Joe undercover. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=q1T2RHyeOAKCb60RJECi-Hm8Wpc1KPm1vIVn04U2HAlsoqoSrOVyaALvqYG-AI0Kk99uEw1MSzLIX3v8UFKpNePmfPYEY1pFyEFd1ah1O2nTS_tiBEwLzQGxR9vjdyR-Tqm8kTKsjB5U1ibQV92oHGZJX9pVkiyfoHly91iiCe5D6ch4emF7sG9uKVPo1yjW-Hod4wz4RyV_0OwkR9l_72iLuy2NimqcAlgj7YGHpN5JL0Gyl22f5G01ihUbzkToppGqYUHdFEo5BMyFQXyFWrwM4wGxt0JutkBbB4FXkPTLEPgLG0wyOTkpzC-pisuVbHRiMqw-LeKgmy1sM3S2doUOdNcZj7h6UH6yS43p6clEdeIYcnVYHuzKIse5dgIkP6XgaA&zp=sjRQF89YnWZ3xvptMiBn-6LSIZsd0RyIr7UKCo3qCbReK6Lm9eS33fh2-6lZOV8lg9cpX8gcODzL3L74PAhLfGXH7fORqmQFeddhijPsB6sigyQfyeV7Uh1oZwFA7DCHv124F-AYUg5h0WbwTVNRR7zJ2vPm4r1H5EfuEE8QHuKxgTzax0R90d1VSN0vxk8k | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
253 | 464 | US banks are set to report the most significant increase in loan losses | null | 94 comments | 2023-07-13 | According to bank analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, it is anticipated that the nation's six largest banks, namely JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, will collectively report write-offs amounting to approximately $5 billion for defaulted loans in the second quarter of this year. Additionally, these banks are expected to allocate an estimated extra $7.6 billion as a provision to account for potential loan defaults.What about unrealized loans in the office sector? !!!! commercial?https://www.ft.com/content/9a7e9746-516b-4d37-a966-97259ec8aca6Now the contextAccording to the agency, banks reported profits of $64.4 billion, (in 2022) with increased net interest income compensating for rising reserves intended to protect against potential loan losses. However, profits experienced a decline of $6.0 billion or 8.5% compared to the previous year (2021).https://www.investopedia.com/bank-profits-rise-despite-headwinds-6544793Things are not ideal but not that problematic either. | 2023-07-24 |
254 | 10 | A New EV ETF, $EVXX | null | 12 comments | 2023-07-14 | I just came across this and thought you guys would like it.“Miami-based Defiance ETFs launched its Pure Electric Vehicle ETF (EVXX) last month, holding just five stocks including Tesla, California-based Rivian Automotive (RIVN), and Chinese EV makers NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI) and Xpeng (XPEV).”Tesla, 25.44% Li Auto, 21.15% NIO, 18.12% Rivian, 18.30% XPeng, 16.96% | 2023-07-24 |
255 | 0 | Long Term Semi Risky Health Care | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-14 | Hi all!Young investor looking to dip into health care a bit. Long term plays which I will DCA into. Preferably somewhat risky. Any favorites? Currently have a few shares of $mkkgy and no other healthcare. | 2023-07-24 |
256 | 2 | Quantitative Analysis of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:NBIX) | null | 4 comments | 2023-07-14 | I recently bought Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NBIX). As a disclosure, I consider this to be a highly speculative investment. Perform your own due diligence.Snapshot for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Sector: HealthcareIndustry: System-Specific BiopharmaceuticalsCountry: USACurrent Price: $96.03Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a neuroscience-focused, biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on discovering and developing pharmaceuticals for the treatment of neurological, endocrine and psychiatric-based diseases and disorders. Its portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson’s disease, endometriosis and uterine fibroids. Its product pipeline includes INGREZZA (valbenazine), which provides a once-daily dosing treatment option for tardive dyskinesia and has three dosing options (40 milligrams (mg), 60 mg and 80 mg capsules); ONGENTYS (opicapone) is an adjunctive therapy to levodopa/carbidopa in patients with Parkinson’s disease; ORILISSA (elagolix) is used for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women. Its pipeline also includes DYSVAL (valbenazine), ORIAHNN (elagolix, estradiol, and norethindrone acetate and elagolix capsules), ALKINDI/ALKINDI SPRINKLE (hydrocortisone), and EFMODY (hydrocortisone modified-release hard capsules).Financial Health for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Altman Z-Score: 9.64Financial Health: SAFERevenue Analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Regressed Revenue Growth: 34.70%Based on historical valuations and revenue, the present value for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is:Bearish Case: $241.41Bullish Case: $611.94Income Analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Regressed Net Income Growth: 29.85%Based on historical valuations and net income, the present value for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is:Bearish Case: $84.37Bullish Case: $6,399.89Free Cash Flow Analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Cost of Equity: 8.00%Weighted Average Cost of Capital: 6.59%Based on sensitivity analysis, the fair value for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is:Bearish Case: $118.78Bullish Case: $180.02Dividend Analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Current Yield: 0.00%Historical Yield: 0.00%Based on historical dividends, the fair value for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is: $0.00Final Ratings for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Growth Rating: 5-StarIncome Rating: 1-Star | 2023-07-24 |
257 | 0 | Hypothetical Question | null | 8 comments | 2023-07-14 | If you could only own stock in 10 companies for the remainder of your investment career, which 10 companies would they be? Stocks for individual companies only, no ETFs.I imagine you would want to find companies with a large moat. I would also imagine picking companies from different industries in an attempt to diversify. And most importantly, you’d obviously want to pick companies you are confident will still be making money 20+ years from now.Curious what 10 companies you all would pick. Thanks! | 2023-07-24 |
258 | 2 | If you had to sell in the next 5 months, when would you? | null | 32 | 2023-07-14 | I've been in Australians and American ETF for about 6 years and need to sell for personal finance reasons. Sell now or are we likely going to rally for next few months? Obviously no one can know for sure just looking for opinions. | 2023-07-24 |
259 | 37 | FTC investigating ChatGPT-maker OpenAI for possible consumer harm
Company News | null | 19 | 2023-07-13 | CNBC reports that “The Federal Trade Commission is investigating ChatGPT-maker OpenAI to understand if the company has violated consumer protection laws, The Washington Post reported on Thursday.
The investigation comes as AI has become a hot issue in Washington, with lawmakers trying to understand whether new laws are needed to protect intellectual property and consumer data in the age of generative AI.
The civil investigative demand asks OpenAI to explain how it retains and uses consumer information and how they obtain information to train its large language models.”
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/chatgpt-owner-openai-is-being-investigated-by-ftc.html | 2023-07-24 |
260 | 169 | Ready to ditch the fax machine and embrace the future of faxing? With eFax, you can send and receive faxes right from your computer, or smartphone. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=8FCi9-HSCTqp3pfdDh9l-jloNJ-chJJW-xfgeF-D93B6dbKAFOzOSA2crA_6eSshC3_Aku_0d06tzEMqU0KJs4rCZ48q7nit6JsgV0vsARpNMnEQ14vcdFtBJTOoo-dhBsIqTiF2PKmuPhrj9QzQwLFQdm3iIB1n0ONK-Fjkn17FOptOqxzxHS38eCusC1Ftq75p_6Bu_ArRRyoicWJZt7r0rjy9vv45kM3126OYoT7k6KNZJbSu50YAMsLjlorHzugl0Oy3nHq5Pq9BlnGtQafI1EMnP0spgk0RqhbJi3kom1MjpqgHDujF9kyUjL1e91ZTf-DLiwlVb5bNl-EQacCvTgF1yBdj8B-MlKxCfn3QDKZCdRS2d2fp3lJ3TT5ckTUZ3D1p&zp=ltzTPIVw3PM9SvD107TzRTvbMSTxXq5jsLkPPEMZ2vHRpqKV5v3EfhguM33GJhc8PQhpKEZy2XeRU0dn07lU1hSW2Fb0aYG7A1w_EZh0lS2coC6qnajwlmYxqPnTO3ooKGwwo3kt9SwGTZcC2xGOYvUujSHzBjj_bvKKDeQWDXKlQxcC9BdIEH8qGU0CA2SugFIdsXioHiZjOnRX9XZqGmkXLMsICmC4Xys-l3HwtKBE3TJeHxT5CQM | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
261 | 38 | Does anyone have a long term investment success story? | null | 71 | 2023-07-13 | Hi Gang,
Im a first generation American, my parents came here has immigrants in the early 80's from a 3rd world country(Guyana) i hear their stories about how eggs were a luxury to get and eat, most of their food came from trees or rice/flour. They never knew much about investing other than 401k, recently i found out my dad crossed the 1M line in his 401k at age 60; hes been contributing since the 80's. Im really proud of him.
For me i try to max out my employer 401k match, max my roth ira and put about $300 a month into a personal brokerage account. By my calculations i should cross the 1MM mark in about 15-17 years. Before 50 :)
I want to hear everyone else success story how has your life changed from long term investments. How do you keep motivated? What was crossing the 1MM line feel like? Any first generation Americans? | 2023-07-24 |
262 | 662 | Disney extends CEO Bob Iger's contract through 2026, two years longer than planned | null | 284 | 2023-07-12 | Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/disney-extends-ceo-bob-igers-contract-through-2026-two-years-longer-than-planned.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
As a non-shareholder, I just can’t help but cringe at Disney’s current situation. Everyone lauded Bob Iger until it became obvious all the guy knew was overpaying for existing IP. That style of “growth” blew up in his face with the recent Fox acquisition, and not having built up a strong successor. Flash forward to this year where Iger is now back at the helm with seemingly no plan because they can’t go out and buy IP anymore with shareholder’s money.
Of all the beaten up large cap stocks, this feels like an absolute value trap. Will be interesting to see how they can achieve organic EPS growth from here. | 2023-07-24 |
263 | 4 | Do we think the M2 Velocity will ever return to previous levels?
Meta | null | 9 | 2023-07-13 | It was 1.7ish for decades before jumping to nearly a 2.2 and is now a 1.25
If you consider the total sum of money in the market with velocity in mind, we've effectively artificially reduced the economy by 56% over the past 26 years. Obviously the total economy grew faster in other ways, but I believe it's something to be considered. Especially considering our economy runs on debt and the regular ability to collect at least on the interest.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V | 2023-07-24 |
264 | 155 | China’s June trade data badly misses expectations | null | 77 comments | 2023-07-13 | China’s exports contracted more than expected in June, hit by shrinking global demand and adding to concerns about the world’s second-largest economy.The dollar value of China’s exports plunged 12.4% in June from a year ago, customs data showed Thursday. This is a far bigger drop than expectations for a 9.5% decline in a Reuters poll and the 7.5% annual decline in May.China's June trade data badly misses expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/chinas-june-trade-data-badly-misses-expectations.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard | 2023-07-24 |
265 | 23 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=zh0ii5oPLVcahbUduhWxz6J7jQVNWeIP6CEzx0lZpbSfhiHARkD3zj7BJ91FV1nKJJX7Pn008fRpI61vrGH9kGwbQ8sa16VlFMuZ2CefmfV2OEoBycWjaCS1R5NaeffbBu0CHtWuXxXavd_VrsCWzK_B4oKLHXjpWxjeYVWieQPQT9Zc6l2Tk-E5KI6h5oAXyxS9CHoMYbUjrrKfS5rhZY_H3DOt-sJr3AoIAb8I7oNo9HXHW43LprBnJ8ekBvwQgPY41HbkcLyp4xHZDHQwdgAUyZ3JkebzIO8KibAsEG8JBTbSaAkmf-yGIkcDcLl7fz7OslNqwcmaH-4C7T75e0qCd0siltn4DWiBUEzPYraPuwMIoDJ5Eriz51bXmw&zp=yV-qYye7z89_Kh3ovCjRne64O_NnDKjdD8C0sbmId9Su-7kf-dkXnnZ45_PC5hu1NrwV0ssJDvsBLM0P1E-6gCsZHqL9OyY0V4AbPcN9S4eu_MjmTTQ75osZvAZ4B_VBXQlDBjoblwoaZ5GsAphTZO8Sz7ci1EYwlzPtZkXKq1ce_FbYz3G-FGrdxe4 | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
266 | 0 | We Are In A Mania, Negative Post | null | 35 comments | 2023-07-14 | I went out of the market in November 2021. Sold everything but 10%. Started buying again in November 2022 and continued until February 2023.I missed the exact bottom in October, but still - I timed it almost to perfection. So what I say next should not be dismissed with "haha, he missed the bottom and is mad". No bro, I am like the bottom's brother. Edit: just wanted to clarify - I was very lucky. I do not believe I am a genius who can time the market.Jokes aside, the discount rate is at 5,25% and stocks like Microsoft trading at 40 P/E with negative EPS growth TTM. Apple is a bit better at 32. Now, I know P/E is just a smell test. But no one in this world can convince me that Microsoft will start growing EPS at such a high rate to justify such a multiple... And historically speaking, such high discount rates make P/E multiples go down and not expand. As Buffett says "interest rates are like gravity for stocks". Yet, the SP500 is not down even 10% from its all time high.Microsoft is so big, it has already almost maximized its profit margin potential - it is improbable they will grow earnings over 20%/year. Another point for this being a mania.I have to admit - there are still companies I like a lot at these prices who are still beaten down 40-50% despite being great businesses and doing well. The only reason for this is that their CEOs haven't repeated "AIAIAIAIIAIAIAIAIAIAIIAIAIAIAIAIIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIIAIAIAIAIAII" 50 times in the last earnings call.Where I thrive is software companies(SaaS mostly). Most of them have doubled or tripled in the last few months based on how many times AI has been repeated. Growth has slowed down, costs have staid the same, yet stock prices have skyrocketed?!?!This tells me that this part of the market is in another maniac phase. To be clear, I haven't sold anything. It is just that the pool of potential investments that can offer great returns has decreased drastically. Investors' optimism about these stocks is making me really nervous.Every bit of bad news is dismissed and gets converted into good news. Every bit of good news gets exaggerated by a factor of 100.Even though this seems like the end stage of a bull market, I am not betting on it. See how negative I am? I am still in the market. Like Peter Lynch has said - it is important to learn to ignore your gut. Had I listened to my gut, I wouldn't have dared to enter the market in Nov 2022.Take this post for what you will - human psychology study, ramblings of a random investor... I just feel the need from time to time to let these negative thoughts out. It helps me not to act on them. I still think something will break, but I am ignoring these thoughts.Good luck to everyone, even if you bought Microsoft at 40 P/E. jk lol | 2023-07-24 |
267 | 14 | Thoughts on MARA | null | 13 comments | 2023-07-13 | Crypto obviously had a major decline and that affected MARA since its a mining company but what do you guys think about the future of it in general. As if bitcoin goes up again it would highly influence (MARA) , currently up and can get out and gain $350. Should I Hold or Sell. Any thoughts appreciated | 2023-07-24 |
268 | 39 | Domino's Pizza $DPZ is up 11%+ on the Uber partnership news - Is this justified? | null | 39 comments | 2023-07-13 | I am always curious how "big events" impact the value of public companies. This is one of the biggest subreddits and I'd like to hear your thoughts on the latest press release of Domino's.Domino's Pizza has been delivering its pizza directly through its app. The company entered into a new global agreement with Uber, allowing customers to place orders via Uber Eats and Postmates, with the delivery being done by Domino's drivers.The question that should be addressed is, "What does this mean for the two companies, and how do they benefit from this partnership?"Based on the press release, Uber One, and Postmates Unlimited members will receive delivery with no charge on their Domino's orders within the Uber Eats and Postmates platforms.However, this isn't free. Uber is a company that makes money from the fees it charges for its services. The question is, who bears these costs:Customer bears the costs - The demand for Domino's products could decrease (quantity-wise) due to the higher price. However, this depends on the elasticity of the demand, which isn't known yet. Of course, if the customer has an unlimited membership, it is clear that the cost is either by Uber or Domino's.If Uber bears the cost (By not charging the fee) - It might add value in the form of more customers, but not in additional revenue. This would bring additional revenue to Domino's. It might seem as a win-win scenario, but it is not sustainable, Uber cannot afford to have a business model of this kind for a long period of time with all of its partners (and historically, that wasn't the case)If Domino's bears the cost - This will lead to higher revenue, but lower margins.After this news, Domino's share price went up over 11%, while Uber's didn't change at all.It is not surprising that Uber's share price didn't change, as the additional revenue doesn't represent a significant increase when compared to the total revenue it earns.As for Domino's Pizza, do you think the company is 11% more valuable due to this partnership? | 2023-07-24 |
269 | 11 | Monthly ‘what are your favourite stocks?’ Post | null | 59 comments | 2023-07-13 | Trying to learn sectors/companies that others know but I don’t, and share with everyone here.From my portfolio, I have the general big techs and a few small/mid cap companies i find interesting.My list is: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, MA, ENPH, SQ, UNH, ASTS, RKLB, and IONQ.What’s yours? | 2023-07-24 |
270 | 29 | r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jul 13, 2023 | null | 536 comments | 2023-07-13 | This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post.Some helpful day to day links, including news:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsRequired info to start understanding options:Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buyPut option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sellSee the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron FlyIf you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
271 | 135 | FTC says it will appeal to block Microsoft-Activision deal | null | 76 comments | 2023-07-12 | The Federal Trade Commission is not giving up on its bid to prevent Microsoft from closing its $68.7 billion acquisition of game publisher Activision Blizzard . On Wednesday, the agency filed to appeal a federal judge’s decision to deny a request for a preliminary injunction that would have prevented the deal from closing.The decision comes one day after Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley, at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, ruled in favor of the two companies.https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/ftc-says-it-will-appeal-to-block-microsoft-activision-deal.html | 2023-07-24 |
272 | 2 | What constitutes a Break and Hold? | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-13 | This might be a stupid question, but no matter where I look there is no concrete answer.What constitutes a break and hold of a resistance level??Is it an opening of a candle body above the resistance? Break of the level THEN a full body of a second candle close above the resistance?Any help is a much appreciated. | 2023-07-24 |
273 | 7 | Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=bdUgu9B_jsfQLOOXHOw7rJCLgq6IqFx_0KnE386jBcauY42W4y0MYTdmEDyW_rd4v9c66k2hO5yYuiQLjXITepbRG05GzKx4IGa5kyQM2Z8TFQAMPzmkqwXt28NjPPowJklZ0Wv7zaH64xtCXWe4E8Q1OhDQGJKPdQjDWTVR3KLWcClgSSd3NzbclCW7R3bfzZIKT-zb96GYiyex2mQIocfKxt8XeryqzHpVuPTjutXyMVdSdyRjTtRFfqjubC0XfL0dBPww1jvp0fHQYs7KXGIL3JFfIDAKCm4yHoxovVETaQwd7z_bY8Gt4oi-RcF6oIwCpEbL8XHSz_BcEHV7UdmEB235YUTD_bcdDMQp-kKcNr6vLauTgLUOKm6N4oJQjsfctRwb&zp=CCClMJ5GPBVtnkFRfdorYzH6tRmaKUBmKGJvwgodSTQGHuuawAKBguVVrdoQKNNBgVLf0GTfVj8SG1WhqeLORYZbKvayPEMkngd8GckxuboFXm-hvs18pl53bMJnJ3pbpBD8p4OdY9_yEeBCUqtApkdWdFybSMNz_IW3zFfH7LJoMoiFHg9d83AX-jsuGTnH4vXabGLYzlYWcg3NUnpesfx-qYu2Ck7baDzAAuJSKYv62nZU0nFFOT9h_SJPox-xKkq0Gw | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
274 | 0 | Trading patterns Works | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-14 | NVDA abcd pattern played out flawlessly yesterday. NFLX has the same pattern and today looks like breakout day. A lot of people think charting and these patterns are witch craft but they work people! Learn to trade them and you can make a lot of money. Good luck today. | 2023-07-24 |
275 | 8 | Due for a correction? Despite “good” news? | null | 25 comments | 2023-07-13 | I expect everyone to read this and think I am a silly bear who doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Inflation is falling, the Federal Reserve is going to hike rates once or twice this year and the US of A is saved.But let’s look at all the previous crashes in the markets. Things never looked bad, in fact they always looked good. Until something in the financial engineering of the world, broke.I won’t go over all the “stock market crashes” but we know this to be the case. In the unprecedented world we live in, after the covid crisis so much has happened. So much in fact that a lot of it we don’t know about, and some of the stuff we know about we don’t know what the true intentions of them were like all the investigations by the SEC or the changes to the capital equity markets etc.Now we are in a place where to a retail investor the market looks ripe for investing. Inflation is coming down, the Federal Reserve will hopefully only hike once again this year. Though BofA still expects two rate hikes.But is it so simple? Inflation is as the market would say “old news”, “priced in” we know about it. We knew it would fall, and the only real reaction. we would have gotten is if it was rising again. None of this is a surprise. All of this is priced into every model on Wall Street.Let’s also keep in mind; Inflation has been moderating recently, but the decrease is largely due to outsized jumps in prices last year, which are rolling off year-ago comparisons. Therefore, the surge in inflation last year was followed by a lull, but inflation is likely to re-accelerate toward the end of the summer.The US labor market remains resilient, giving the Federal Reserve reason to maintain tight monetary policy. Making it even more likely the Fed will hike rates twice more this year which is one time more than the market currently expects.What is happening in the markets? The correlations? What are they telling us about what happens next?Inflation in the goods sector has dropped, but the slowdown in orders and reduction in backlogs are affecting employment in the sector.The US factory sector has continued to slow down, with only four of eighteen industries reporting growth in June. This suggests the goods sector may lead the way into a recession.Energy and food prices rose in June, contributing to inflation. Housing rents, a major contributor to high inflation, are still rising.Core inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing rents, remained unchanged in June, showing the lowest monthly reading in nearly two years.The ISM Manufacturing index has remained in contraction territory for eight consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in the goods sector of the economy.The trade deficit in goods and services has declined, indicating weakening demand for goods domestically and a trend toward spending on services.We’re looking at a US Dollar hitting its 15 month lows. The Nasdaq is going to have to perform a “special rebalancing” because the so-called “magnificent seven” are so overvalued that they’re starting to create too much risk for the Nasdaq.Behind the scenes of all this “inflation talk” we are still seeing tighter lending and regional banks are struggling again. As per the FED Beige Book released yesterday, July 12, 2023. People are also defaulting on their car payments, and this is before the Student Loan Payments come back in full effect.BofA reported today that total card spending per household by their aggregates credit and debit cards is down 2% YoY. This softness is consistent with the slowdown in non-farm payrolls. They state “The latest data flow pushes back against the notion that the economy re-accelerated significantly in 2Q after the soft patch in March. Instead, we appear to be in a period of below trend economic growth and consumer spending.”China also today, declared that both their imports and exports growth fell below consensus. June exports contracted further by 12.4% YoY vs the -7.5% previously announced. Import growth also softened to -6.8% from the -4.5% in May. Export growth was weaker “across the board”.On top of that, despite all of the inflation data we have received, there has been absolutely no deviation from any Fed Speaker even some who are usually quite dovish. We remain with the “higher-for-longer” message, along with the Federal Reserve expectation of 2 more rate hikes this year and rate cuts further away than the market has priced in, according to Jerome Powell. Note the second rate hike has not been priced in to the market, despite not one Fed Speaker deviating from that message.The market euphoria is creating an inefficiency which will eventually be taken advantage of. As Sun Tzu states, defeat is not brought by yourself, but it is brought on by the enemy. Anyone buying this market is bringing themselves to be defeated because the underlying picture is much more grimy than the media, Joe Biden and his aides, or your friends who also own shares of that “wonderful AI stock” would tell you. | 2023-07-24 |
276 | 2 | Looking to buy OTC ticker AWEVF; where? | null | 4 comments | 2023-07-13 | There is a company trading on the FTSE London exchange called Alphawave, I see when googling that the US OTC ticker is AWEVF. It is not on Schwab when I search for it, and googling around has been extremely difficult to find what brokerage carries it if any. How would I be able to invest? | 2023-07-24 |
277 | 10 | Do you think the WSJ ever tries to influence stock prices? | null | 26 comments | 2023-07-13 | The Wall Street Journal seems to have an axe to grind with AT&T and Verizon over lead cables. They keep running this story on the front page for several days. I mean they have made their point and most people don’t care. The point is it seems more like a vendetta than journalism. | 2023-07-24 |
278 | 624 | June CPI rose 3.0% over the last 12 months vs the expected 3.1% | null | 545 comments | 2023-07-12 | Inflation Cooled to 3.0% in JuneThis marked the Twelve straight months of cooling in annual inflation since peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.It takes 9-12 months for rate hikes to be felt and 12-18 months for the maximum effect.The CPI report, interest rate hikes, house prices and rents, wage growth, job openings, unemployment rate, international conflicts, and trade wars all play a significant role in guiding the market's macroenvironment.A study by credit agency TransUnion has shown that inflation pushes borrowers with low FICO scores to default. Inflation under control is good for lending institutions."In June, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June (SA); up 4.8 percent over the year (NSA)."https://www.bls.gov/cpi/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm | 2023-07-24 |
279 | 2 | Seeking advice on TransAlta Renewables | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-13 | So there's recently been news on TransAlta buying back TransAlta Renewables, which I'm currently holding in my TFSA for it's dividends. I'm down on the stock by about 9% and I'm wondering if I should sell?I think shareholders are entitled to shares of TransAlta or cash. Not sure if I want the former and I'd get $13 per share for the latter, which is slightly below the current price. Should I just hold and see what I can get or sell right now and invest in other things?I've never been in this kind of situation before so not sure what to do. Any advice would be appreciated. | 2023-07-24 |
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