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1,100 | 4 | No, Michael Lewis, the US Equities Market Is Not Rigged | http://tabbforum.com/opinions/no-michael-lewis-the-us-equities-market-is-not-rigged | 23 comments | 2014-07-27 | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,101 | 18 | How to show you have knowledge of financial modeling? | null | 19 comments | 2014-07-27 | Hi everyone,I have been studying Financial Modeling by Benninga for a few weeks to supplement by mathematics degree. I am trying to figure out how to show that I have knowledge of this on a resume to try and make myself more marketable in the financial industry. Is there any way to demonstrate or prove my knowledge? I have no professional experience and "advanced excel skills / financial modeling skills" is so vague and subjective that it's worthless. I was considering starting a blog, but I'm not really sure how I can add and differentiate it from just regurgitating what I've learned in the book. Any ideas? | 2023-07-27 |
1,102 | 2 | High Frequency Traders/Front runners question | null | 13 comments | 2014-07-27 | Ok, so I read the New York Times article about how these High Frequency Traders (HFT) are combining that with front running to make profits on every large trade. From what I understand (and it's not much):A large hedge fund manager wants to put a huge trade in. Let's say 20K shares of a stock at $15 a trade.The trade goes to the first exchange, but it can only handle 5K of the order and puts in a request to the next exchange for 15K shares.HFTs with computers near the exchange see the pending order, place their order for 15k shares to the next exchange ahead of you and when the stock price goes up (because of their large purchase moving the price up), they sell it back to the hedge fund manager, making a profit.Assuming I'm right, how does the HFT know about the pending order? Is this somehow public knowledge? Obviously it has to be otherwise this doesn't work, but where is this knowledge coming from? Thanks in advance for any help you can give on this. | 2023-07-27 |
1,103 | 26 | Flash Boys by Michael Lewis | null | 41 comments | 2014-07-27 | Love to hear everyone's thoughts over the next few weeks concerning HFT, REG NMS and other issues covered by this book. I'm 50/50 on the issues, I've been telling people since around 2007 how regulation and technology has changed drastically, affecting even the simplest small retail order flow. But I have also seen markets become more competitive and transparent. (I was close to this, I worked at an exchange). | 2023-07-27 |
1,104 | 11 | Wiley (Mckinsey) Valuation book discussion | null | 5 comments | 2014-07-27 | Hey guys, I just started reading this book (5th edition with me) and had trouble understanding the Exhibit 2.4 Translating Growth and ROIC into Value... Anyone else who has read the book (am assuming many in the PE/ M&A/ Eq Research space may have?) care to explain me how do they come about with those numbers there pls?Aim is to keep this discussion going and for others to also ask questions around the book or ideas they agree/ disagree with to make the experience richer in going through this wonderful piece of education.Thanks vm | 2023-07-27 |
1,105 | Vote | Verliebt, verkatert, hyped oder entspannt. Das Radio SRF Virus ist live mit dir, für alle deine Moods. Mit unseren fünf Hosts mit fünfmal mehr Charakter. Jetzt reinhören und mitreden. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=2uGFdezERC0BV-_6CD_wRlWPJ6kAzHtYqoGFbcndvDoWuiyfRpDzsReNo13vp215nj08LK5ZdLhbcUPApCXdx7Z6IOI9B_nHUAYMzHVfypt-hyCdvdUQLloPUrItE0LbPjI21jPLA73V3tSQDO_fw3LZb5KiURgyGlx3PSch5taTCBe2SBYX9hIy5YSmTk4dLV4jon7_m14HfsjjmAUNOmm1sMCdrQGzfLcdktD--iJEc2C8AWqGH5QfKS06hlnYuZMLnIs8YdcGmOakqSBKDeRnju3iT2Xc2BpFtTkuY75z8mwL5_E4gaZ7QPY0LeYWORfWcFifghN9kz1jTaVzVVAXnNdB3NQhaFplVQlB78fnAwkDcs6or9k3bk798Ey9Ew&zp=cTKP9_isIhjgUulv7_RftRXStFMwpIpgkz0-LQtKZ9UzYLwxXmtGypuy6lgNuHyuxHfZ-gyX9T8l-eLJL8PMJ45vp_2so-8pVB119u6InKjpYwNgn5pqBGr-eZvjqBT1A89U_lebtr1NLSIRD7AppTqt9EjyK75tlOiB8Qr0hVHJ95VgghibzABZkO0Q4_8aN2fyCiLu1cRsC1gFkd1bdIdpqxWHrjF4MCoTGqQJv7kJSprf5neWM8fFo1z6h2ddVKl9hNc7og | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,106 | 64 | Facebook buy Oculus for $2B, $400M in cash | http://www.cnbc.com/id/101515486 | 101 comments | 2014-07-27 | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,107 | 5 | Top 10 Investment Influencers to Follow on Twitter | http://www.wallstcollege.com/top-10-investment-influencers-to-follow-on-twitter/ | 4 comments | 2014-07-27 | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,108 | 0 | Mergers and Acquisitions: a destination or a starting point? | null | 15 comments | 2014-07-27 | I am wondering what r/finance's opinion is on mergers and acquisitions in respect to a career, specifically within a bulge-bracket investment bank. Is it a division one transfers into after gaining experience? Or is it possible for a college student to find an internship and subsequently a starting position coming out of Uni with an undergraduate degree? Thanks! | 2023-07-27 |
1,109 | 9 | Internships that start in July? | null | 13 comments | 2014-07-27 | So does anyone know of any internships that start on/after June 15th? I have a time commitment in May/early June, but really need an internship for my junior year, which I've been struggling to find because of above circumstance.Thanks everyone! | 2023-07-27 |
1,110 | 18 | Sharpe Ratio Analysis | null | 23 | 2014-07-27 | Im doing a stock portfolio analysis (ex-post) of daily returns and I have a few questions concerning the Sharpe ratio if anyone could answer.
Should I analyse each individual stock under the sharpe ratio?
How do I find the standard deviation of the whole portfolio (4 stocks)? do i just use the average daily returns of the four stocks and do the stdev of them?
So far, Ive been getting very low average daily returns, this has led to very low (basically 0) Sharpe Ratios and Negative ones. Is this normal?
Thank you for any help | 2023-07-27 |
1,111 | 9 | Let's talk about the Bloomberg aptitude test | null | 13 | 2014-07-27 | Gave it back in Feb, and scored 650, 99%ile. Does anyone know if companies really recruit through the database? Or if Bloomberg itself recruit from their own database? | 2023-07-27 |
1,112 | 59 | I found the book "Investment Banking: Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions", would anyone here recommend it, if not, what book on Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions would you recommend? | http://www.amazon.com/Investment-Banking-Valuation-Leveraged-Acquisitions/dp/1118656210/ref=dp_ob_title_bk | 28 | 2014-07-27 | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,113 | 10 | Which universities are good for finance? | null | 45 | 2014-07-27 | I want to study finance in the US or the uk, but since I dont actually live there I have no idea whatsoever which colleges are good or how to choose one. I spent some time on bigfuture looking at a few but I still am quite lost. | 2023-07-27 |
1,114 | Vote | I got 132 IQ on the international IQ test. It's probably the most accurate online test. How high is your IQ? | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=5lptTHyPPUVxwYYMmCmChsJu1bkLTuQrfk3Zs9A7C3B0_EqIHfKORxERBLszGiqA7YCv0EIOzHE3jnnCJkCGrNB_dt6YsX56Sf_IGHen752dxFuxEpEut-EH_lHJgnEJH_yPs6hoK4kuyjJIiNFht_F03iAVQSFuWA2rux96Prsb2Ie2t07aZFF-nEkgs-rDdXyPO1_YiCzWrEJ0llewYDCjPl89LAVdxc_14KRsx2Rbg2AO7wk_F36BFa9F6iB-1fbeSEG9_Vr1j8MEJ7sQVGzbfeFlmNzNvc8rh2HOCYcmPfTr-wM8SudJ5IFfqJibKZlNLkuWkfv5Mj6onDeGL-poKt1b6RoZTTbsqF95dm36Mu4HSNB1tDfBFRPQmWdro3212YbL&zp=L_JyGTnm7HQeuUkF5eQ41mQ5N7EYKjjObLMaumu2avhYyzIH8nr744FuTcHspWN7qyKK5JHzrF350vR4-r03wpeVqL50bdTpLbrdGftRlKmKdP3B7y0mbamMPwzJMKODdWtw93xKopn1-9aeNmEOvVcUaaLJcqiNtz1LNR_UwR5Ks1-hX6ZE | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,115 | 12 | Finance Professionals of /r/finance what do you wear to the office? | null | 59 | 2014-07-27 | I ask as someone entering the work force. Dress code, style, brands?
I would have asked r/malefashionadvice , but I find a lot of their stuff is non-applicable. (to put it nicely)
I would have asked r/financialcareers , but they do not have the amount of subscribers r/finance does. | 2023-07-27 |
1,116 | 67 | How can a student practice their financial modeling? | null | 25 | 2014-07-27 | I'm currently an undergrad majoring in finance with a concentration in investments and I was wondering how it is that others practice their financial modeling? I understand there's a multitude of different resources available on the sidebar, but how can I find information to apply these to in more of a real-life setting that can give me more experience as to what I'd be doing as an analyst? | 2023-07-27 |
1,117 | 14 | If you could time travel back to 1990, how would you make the most money possible? | null | 25 | 2014-07-27 | Would it be through options, CDS, gambling, or through some other asset? For some reason I have always wondered what the most optimal way to make money would be if you knew exactly what would happen every day. | 2023-07-27 |
1,118 | 0 | TPG Is Considering Going Public | http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/25/bonderman-says-tpg-is-considering-going-public/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Private%20Equity&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body | 1 | 2014-07-27 | null | 2023-07-27 |
1,119 | 31 | What was wrong with the actions in Wolf of Wall Street? | null | 62 | 2013-07-27 | I asked this in another subreddit but there wasn't enough knowledge on this subject there to fully answer my question. I thought you guys would be more informed.
I'm still confused as to how what they were doing was illegal in the movie. It seemed to me like they were just being sleazy salesman selling shitty stocks to people. I'm curious as to when this crossed the line into illegal territory. I feel like they must have left things out in the film to make the lifestyle seem cooler. | 2023-07-27 |
0 | 49 | Rate My Portfolio - r/Stocks Quarterly Thread June 2023 | null | 250 | 2023-05-24 | null | 2023-07-24 |
1 | 7 | r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jul 24, 2023 | null | 74 | 2023-07-24 | null | 2023-07-24 |
2 | 85 | Fallen post IPO stocks, which may have hidden gems potential
Company Analysis | null | 85 | 2023-07-24 | Some analysis from my site of new and innovative companies, which received massive media attention and hype in the last years. But after hype is gone, many of these stocks has significantly fallen in their prices, especially those that went public in the last two to three years. Nevertheless, in my opinios we have some hidden gems here, which may be worth a look at right now:
Bumble: A Bumpy Ride for the Dating App Giant
Bumble, a well-known dating app with additional features, has experienced a significant 77% decline in its stock since its IPO. While its revenue growth has been solid but not outstanding, with a 16% increase in the last quarter, the company's profitability has seen a slight decline but has shown signs of improvement. With a market capitalization of $2.3 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of around 2.5, the current valuation appears attractive, presenting a potential buying opportunity after the initial hype during the IPO was considered unjustified. Investors may find Bumble worth a second look given the current lack of interest in the stock.
Rivian: The "Tesla Killer" Faces Tough Competition
Rivien, known as the "Tesla Killer," has gathered significant media attention for its electric vehicles, especially pickup trucks and SUVs with unique headlights. Despite the initial hype, the stock has plummeted by 88% since its IPO. Ford and Amazon were major investors, but the relationship with Amazon soured, leading Rivien to terminate its exclusive supply contract.
As a young company, Rivien's latest quarterly numbers show impressive revenue growth of 600%, primarily due to minimal revenue in the previous year. The company is now delivering significant quantities of cars, totaling 8,000 in the current quarter, and aims to achieve a gross profit in 2024 while targeting over 50,000 vehicle deliveries in 2023. With a cash cushion of nearly $12 billion, Rivien's market capitalization stands at $14.2 billion.
Considering the current revenue growth, Rivien's value seems attractive, but it's crucial to acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding its future. The revenue-to-sales ratio is not representative at this stage. Investors who believe in Rivien as a serious automaker may find the company's valuation worthy of respect. However, the stock remains speculative due to ongoing uncertainties and market speculation.
Didi: The Struggles of a Ride-Hailing Giant in China
Didi, a ride-hailing company with food delivery services, has experienced an 80% decline in stock value since its IPO. Revenue growth has been inconsistent due to COVID-19 impact and regulatory challenges in China. Despite a recent data scandal and a $1.2 billion fine, Didi's market capitalization is $14.5 billion, less than one times its revenue of $19 billion. A potential China comeback may make the stock appealing, but it carries increased risk.
Marqeta: A Hidden Gem in the Fintech Industry | 2023-07-24 |
3 | 24 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=jte443w8cQvY2I8lCRuCPrLbglAPBDQ5-0k0jiaiVnNqfqkrKSq8C44RjkM_JdqKq2-3cd6PqaLeV_8WN37vMbi4AdzrXk7qcq6AG1HID4manDls0EMJtMuagcw6DVh32IvDMYX9L2WKFslQjAO7gH7xP0luuVBVHM8Lx2MedJ0txDnKu6tk1UoPNTEIZXs9v0SizMaaWr5xRpk4I8Qgwk_XPxrjn3DCRkAns73vs7LQc7HBIblfZ4ReL7RVFF8ZWew0mRkHMqbQ6xv72k7l-nbuC3oxBX-voNAnzzeiPOLdwBoGsjC1com2d9qBhtVzkFVPSfbGV5JV7bGfYrhQ1zRNM1n0G_ndemtj8HRCDEe80V8DeTDr-OY0qM3DmA&zp=GrccaVovOXiYIWfpR10cmvBFOBrizcr5n1n90sXpjYdw2wL7ljb0kSWWvdLG_KoWedxDGLktPalYizx8wFyBgP8KY4qYcGzXlNrFgv-nuk1kb5kZwJ0sTg9vuEjfHD2pnRqr-HhIQ4n71Gz916H-ElhgSuVnaUwPcj_cBoqLnG7PbqbjNXlweMPSJRU | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
4 | 1.3k | ‘Barbie’ Opens to Record-Setting $155 Million, ‘Oppenheimer’ Shatters Expectations With $80 Million Debut | null | 257 | 2023-07-23 | https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-opening-weekend-shatter-records-1235677601/
“Barbenheimer” is more than just a meme. It’s a full-fledged box office phenomenon. Over the weekend, moviegoers turned out in force for Greta Gerwig’s neon-coated fantasy comedy “Barbie,” which smashed expectations with $155 million to land the biggest debut of the year. But they also showed up to see Christopher Nolan’s R-rated historical drama “Oppenheimer,” which collected a remarkable $80.5 million in its opening weekend.
Hundreds of thousands of ticket buyers refused to choose between the seemingly different blockbusters with twin release dates. So they opted to attend same-day viewings of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” turning the box office battle into a double feature for the ages. The craze known as “Barbenheimer” worked together to fuel the biggest collective box office weekend of the pandemic era, as well as the fourth-biggest overall weekend in history. It’s worth noting the top three weekends were led by the debuts of sequels in massive franchises, “Avengers: Endgame,” “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”
How do you think this will effect the media stocks? Specific companies involved with both films would be WBD produced Barbie. CMCSA produced Oppenheimer. Following Netflix earnings and the actors strike sentiment around the sector became negative. Will this help with the narrative that the box office is back? | 2023-07-24 |
5 | 104 | What will Disney do about superhero fatigue? Going back to its princess/fairytales roots would lose them lots of adult consumers | null | 204 | 2023-07-24 | Maybe there isn’t a superhero fatigue?
Or maybe fatigue only amongst adults, the newer kids are loving them (those kids that have the fatigue are all grown up anyways so they belong in the adults category)?
They don’t really have the means to buy IPs to invest in right now.
What’s next?
Detective/mystery genre? Epic romance that aren’t fairytales? Wizards (not in space)? Actions/martial arts (not in space)? Western (not in space)? Comedy like Mr bean / three stooges? | 2023-07-24 |
6 | 162 | Carvana is still in trouble and is misleading investors | null | 69 | 2023-07-24 | I looked into Carvana, again, and I am surprised by the way the management is communicating key information.
Disclaimer: I have no exposure to Carvana, and never had.
The post will be divided into the following segments:
Misleading investors
Painting a rosy picture with window dressing
The trouble ahead
Misleading investors
As Carvana is an eCommerce platform for buying/selling used cars, the revenue, as well as, the gross profit per unit are both important to keep track of.
The company has 3 different revenue sources:
Retail Sales
Wholesale Sales | 2023-07-24 |
7 | 623 | I was down 55% on my portfolio headed into January 2023 and have now broke even thanks to the advice of r/stocks | null | 178 comments | 2023-07-23 | I know people say don't take stock advice from Reddit but what I saw in a couple threads from sometime between December 24-26th 2022 helped me out greatly. The gist of the threads were people started investing in Jan 2021 didn't know what to do now since they were down 50% or more like me. Some were thinking suicide haven't seen those users post since...but a couple asked what should they do now.The advice given when sorted by best was sell everything and put it into VOO, VTI or SPY. Given how the market had been doing at the time I decided to sort by controversial. And the most recommended stocks that were sparking arguments were META, NVDA, AMD, PLTR, DKNG, and CVNA.I went with the controversial advice and bought those stocks on December 27th which ended up being buying META around $117, NVDA around $141, AMD around $63,PLTR around $6, DKNG around $11, and CVNA around $4. I have since recovered all my losses. I thought it would take years instead it took 7-8 months. Just wanted to thank those users on r/stocks wherever you are that recommended those stocks in Dec 2022. | 2023-07-24 |
8 | 4 | Any books or YouTube videos to recommend for Portfolio Ratio. | null | 2 comments | 2023-07-24 | As the title, I’m trying to manage my portfolio ratio by learning through YouTube or even reading. I’m (22M) still studying while I’m 100% investing in stocks (3 ETFS, 2 individual stocks). So I want to learn as fast as I could to readjust it | 2023-07-24 |
9 | Vote | Wisest Time to Sell? | null | 12 comments | 2023-07-24 | Stocks go up, stocks go down. I want some thought and opinions on when the "experts" start taking profits vs. letting it ride. 30% seems to be a decent gain, but not so much if you factor in capital gains tax. Relative newbie here, so please don't be too condescending. | 2023-07-24 |
10 | 294 | Tesla Starts Offering 84-Month Loans as Interest Rates Rise | null | 301 comments | 2023-07-23 | Tesla Inc. has started offering consumers 84-month auto loans after Elon Musk said the carmaker would “have to do something” about rising interest rates. The company now includes seven-year loans as an option on its US order pages, after previously offering loans as long as 72 months. While extending loan terms can lower car buyers’ monthly payments, consumers tend to pay more in interest and face greater risk of owing more than their vehicle is worth.Tesla’s chief executive officer has been a frequent critic of the Federal Reserve. Musk tweeted in November that the central bank’s rate increases were “massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession.” His predictions of impending deflation haven’t yet panned out.“When interest rates rise dramatically, we actually have to reduce the price of the car, because the interest payments increase the price of the car,” Musk said during Tesla’s July 19 earnings call. “So we have to do something about that.”While 84-month auto loans have been gaining in popularity, the trend slowed early this year, according to credit-reporting company Experian. Roughly 34% of new vehicles loans in the first quarter were longer than six years, down from about 38% a year ago. Tesla delivered a record 466,140 vehicles during the three months that ended in June but has sold fewer cars than it’s produced each of the last five quarters. The shares plunged after Musk said on this week’s call that the company will have to keep lowering prices if interest rates continue to rise.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-22/tesla-starts-offering-84-month-loans-as-interest-rates-rise?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg | 2023-07-24 |
11 | 5 | Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=UdTivli5onOi-UfSOo-skURMV5ifutKJ233PXvAac1hUvR46zjKBryEMuNPzRviHPka3mo77L_q2JZm3TmkGO49uEZSAYoasnZw0jOiGw_r5jFtj0Yn7RXE2evpb9mHmoEkRohOccYvCE0mxfW3WmPo5N_5CiYXRy1q-xZc0OLK7lmiJtrJ6AshmWFWKZuiH6uIViVUuz1GH5E01MK8Pzsup-d5FauQwp2Zg5rs_5TxYURMdoZOY5shRyZCSqyUfPREWRWILtI0YFsjQRiRgfq2IoSFDC_7otXrcbfxfIqUMOTTiSiLsW4rpoidJbXEsEUz8qTl96IJ_7SE3F7iiBMNJbH-V8Fo-hFOEmdQJ471fLGFPPvTv_VdGJbdy2O89PxiHDhNp&zp=rm1-__7yQtIjaZ2m0k4Sz-GBn4CZ40EquqyEt63g2t4o-CBHzaSvLR7AAxh_lhNab-J2-d-Wnupobd20tNXozc5J3u3IrPViw8eRo6diSnroeK6Gxz6laV3f9Y2B6jWI7Njm7JB_iQIX_FjJZp5yBm7613D6Oc1VRJ41HtPaNV34zcRK4Uyh6F4DuQ1w9ZcypwTbdSxoU6sPsMlyt5VXlTRgylQiZux4uU06gtIug7i4XnjYjXXYPqPyfRsSnx9JMIFLZA | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
12 | 8 | DCA Luxury Companies | null | 10 comments | 2023-07-24 | I plan to save for some European stocks via savings plan in addition to saving for my ETF. Investment period 15+ years. Primarily I have thought about saving for Porsche (PAG911) and LVMH. However, I am also considering Hermès and Ferrari. All equally weighted of course. I am curious about your opinions. | 2023-07-24 |
13 | 0 | Will the stock price of Riot Platforms Inc. rebound at $25? | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-24 | Riot stock price broke out of a consolidation phase on July 5th and has gained $20.64; this rally could extend to $25. Analysts believe Riot's stock price will reverse its downward trend and surge to the $25 recovery level. Analysts also confirmed that if RIOT shares break through the primary resistance level of $21.02, they could reach the $25 mark by sustaining at the $23.18 resistance level. RIOT stock investors should keep an eye on the daily time frame chart for any directional changes.Riot stock was trading at $18.38, a 0.49% decrease from the previous day's trading volume. Furthermore, trading volume was lower than usual and will need to increase during the trading session on Monday. This suggests that buyers may step in to help the RIOT stock during Monday's trading session.Furthermore, the price of Riot's stock rose 56.43% in a single month and 62.22% over the previous three. Technical indicators indicate that Riot stock has moved out of overbought territory. Riot Platforms Inc. investors must wait for a trend shift before expecting Riot stock to rise in price. | 2023-07-24 |
14 | 20 | VOO Vs. MegaCap-8 | null | 21 comments | 2023-07-24 | I have recently been getting into stocks. I have seen so many people mention "Invest in VOO or VTI and delete the app and only come back to buy more". From my limited knowledge, I find that investing in any of the MegaCap-8 stocks is the better as it has way higher growth compared VOO. What are the pros and cons of each one and for a 20 year old, what should I be focusing on? | 2023-07-24 |
15 | 6 | I'm investing in the US market from Brazil. Should I be filling any reports or tax papers for the US authorities? | null | 46 comments | 2023-07-24 | I'm using 2 brokerages based on the US. I sent money trough exchanges directly to my brokers account. I do not have US citizenship and I never set foot on US.As far as I know the tax payments are automatically deducted from my dividends by the brokerages.Still, is there any obligation a person like me has towards the American authorities? | 2023-07-24 |
16 | 10 | Capital Gains Tax Question | null | 12 comments | 2023-07-24 | So I’ve Diamond held a ton of shares for over a year but have also bought a ton of shares along the way. Just wondering what happens when I sell. Does the time I bought the shares average out? Or is it first bought first sold? Or the last ones I bought get sold first? Just wondering when it comes to paying capital gains taxes… thanks to anyone who takes the time to answer my question!! I wish you all the good fortune 💰💰 | 2023-07-24 |
17 | 1 | Train your own ChatGPT model for Trading Advice? | null | 7 comments | 2023-07-24 | Wondering if anyone has come up with a way or knows of any tools to train your own GPT like model for stocks. I'd love to tell it every time I made a trade and the reasons behind it. Then when I sell the same thing. Have it slowly learn my behaviors then when enough data has been entered I can put in the trade I want and the reasoning behind it and see if it can determine one way or another a prediciton or a recommendation on wether I should do it or not?I don't think their is a plaid like service where I could have it download my last 10+ years of trading but overall I'd love to start to figure out how to train such a model if its possible? Even if its 100% wrong it would be interesting to see what it comes up with.Robotraders were step 1, now its individual traders who can train on their performance and reasoning and see if they can finally beat warren buffets famous remarks of index funds. | 2023-07-24 |
18 | 2 | Opinion in LG Display | null | 1 comment | 2023-07-24 | I’ve been looking into it and it’s coming up on refresh announcements for TV’s. I know that it’s January before production models are announced but looking into LG display…. They seem like an attractive buy.Seeing that Samsung has yielded to LG for tv displays and anyone who produces OLED TV’s get their panels from LG, it seems like they have a monopoly on it.I can’t see any major thing happening to LG display to have a downturn. Right now so the time to grab it while they are on off season for TV refresh time.When the next iteration of TV’s come out it seems like the defining factors are the brand + chipsets they use but all of them under the hood have the OLED panels from LG.Can anyone point out factors that show a major distress or factor that my lead to a lower stock price? | 2023-07-24 |
19 | Vote | Um eine Terrororganisation von innen zu stürzen, gehen die Agentinnen Cruz und Joe undercover. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=tH7xesJ9ziUT__-BbQfbx7eghQMCTHSaYj8gro6qz6ArNTWijIGMHDeTv1UPyuS6z59YvEBP4ZlxMJ_hb3VEX8tYHg0vqHFb1cXkfXAxd47auUNVBpdORGeN-3gkWplWvBeB94sf6_1QyqTSq_AR30-0u_IMrkSro4jnB66X_cQK9aGB2kj8jM9DGsJMNKLN3vJQoKUcpYmPilBjPdImgd-9QkXdwMa2-2rqAIj-t5xwNfGZ9WHe6Kv6SipQJeQt5-hl-LX_QoGD5LbVrPMO-_lt4OdZGHBv2eWPfEh8yM3SwRf_IgWCdGm8Nghnda7y0C6fizkVV7YQyVojPKnki_Zgn60snw5TEtZ_NqpIwymKnNqXW_tQ3ZF30a8Mc2Po7UYZKg&zp=wrgk7lwSL8lpDXm3NgtDd5fEMY0DmAoaWmIbZAaGS-n9FbfN5JIb_Gc6B52hkxur8oAyaewzemKgPJuMgQhkGLWqVWfNtN-XgqO966rPpr6P_v2H0popVyAqNZzhFU1P8k1UfgCQf4YYv65tU4GfMi6zrTlphV54w6p_RSq0y9dKzFpZr8cU7JSu89ypF7qa | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
20 | Vote | Um eine Terrororganisation von innen zu stürzen, gehen die Agentinnen Cruz und Joe undercover. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=tH7xesJ9ziUT__-BbQfbx7eghQMCTHSaYj8gro6qz6ArNTWijIGMHDeTv1UPyuS6z59YvEBP4ZlxMJ_hb3VEX8tYHg0vqHFb1cXkfXAxd47auUNVBpdORGeN-3gkWplWvBeB94sf6_1QyqTSq_AR30-0u_IMrkSro4jnB66X_cQK9aGB2kj8jM9DGsJMNKLN3vJQoKUcpYmPilBjPdImgd-9QkXdwMa2-2rqAIj-t5xwNfGZ9WHe6Kv6SipQJeQt5-hl-LX_QoGD5LbVrPMO-_lt4OdZGHBv2eWPfEh8yM3SwRf_IgWCdGm8Nghnda7y0C6fizkVV7YQyVojPKnki_Zgn60snw5TEtZ_NqpIwymKnNqXW_tQ3ZF30a8Mc2Po7UYZKg&zp=wrgk7lwSL8lpDXm3NgtDd5fEMY0DmAoaWmIbZAaGS-n9FbfN5JIb_Gc6B52hkxur8oAyaewzemKgPJuMgQhkGLWqVWfNtN-XgqO966rPpr6P_v2H0popVyAqNZzhFU1P8k1UfgCQf4YYv65tU4GfMi6zrTlphV54w6p_RSq0y9dKzFpZr8cU7JSu89ypF7qa | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
21 | 834 | Can we stop posting about index funds and move towards stocks | null | 271 comments | 2023-07-22 | Index funds are the safe and easy way to invest your money, but shouldn’t we talk about stocks in r/stocks and not just vti, voo, spy and qqq. Sure no one knows for sure which way a stock is going to go, but we can speculate and have the odds on our favor. r/stocks isn’t for the people who want to throw $1000 away each month and never think about it. r/bogleheads should be for that stuff. We’re here to try and make money. Now I’m not saying that index funds are bad; if a person comes here saying "I just got x dollars, what should I do with it?" Telling them to put it in vti or spy is fine. We just shouldn’t be making posts about why spy and vti will be the winner in the long run. Half of the capital in the s&p500 is beating the market, and half is losing. We should be able to at least get decently accurate as to who will end up on which side.In short, we should do more talking about stocks than index funds here in r/stocks | 2023-07-24 |
22 | 1 | $TDOC Teladoc earnings Tuesday 25th | null | 1 comment | 2023-07-24 | I like to buy or short companies ahead of their earning and sell after hours after the volatility. As part of my research I simply look how much traffic the company's website gets if it is a internet based business. While looking at TeladocHealth.com I noticed a HUGE jump in monthly visits. Teladoc.com is slightly down.Does anyone know the difference b/w Teladoc Health and regular Teladoc? It looks like Teladochealth.com is a new all inclusive service for doctors appointments for stuff like mental health. With the increase in this new business line wouldn't that equate to more revenue? Revenue last quarter (before the jump in visits) was $630M and this quarter its expected to be $649M.https://imgur.com/VYWR7faThoughts?Side note on my earnings trading strategy: Last week I noticed less people are going to Netflix.com. Everyone was bullish due to not being able to share passwords equating to more signups. More signups would mean more visits to Netflix.com but that wasn't the case so I shorted and made an instant 10%. I also shorted becuase it looked overbought and even with good earnings a correction was needed of people taking profits. | 2023-07-24 |
23 | 47 | For all the talk about SPY, VOO, VTI, etc, shouldn't BRK be a part of the conversation? | null | 72 comments | 2023-07-22 | There are a lot of perks about BRK that I really think is solid, particularly high quality companies, high MOAT, no dividend or expense ratios, private businesses (Geico, BNSF, etc) tons of cash, ability to buy companies for more growth, ability for stock buybacks, the list goes on.I have VTI in my 401k, 457b 100%, but my taxable personal trading account is 100% BRK-B and has done very well. No 15% hit on dividends or expense ratios either.How much have you allocated to BRK A or B in your portfolio? | 2023-07-24 |
24 | 11 | CSW Industrials (CWSI), quick overview and valuation | null | 7 comments | 2023-07-23 | CSW Industrials is a general industrial products company serving a variety of end markets. What drew me into this company was their Rector seal brand. I had a plumber do work and used rector seal products for sealant. He told me to throw away the stuff I got at home depot, only the rector seal was worth using. Apparently this is view shared by a lot of people in the industry. I like that kind of brand loyalty.The company serves more than just the plumbing market. Their products are also used in HVAC, railroads, and other industrial cases. I think this is an interesting play on near shoring and reindustrialization in the US. CSW products will be used in factories, as well as in home repair and construction.The company was a spin off in 2014. They also have a bout a 5% insider ownership rate, which is impressive. They credit a lot of this to their employee stock purchase plan which helps employees build equity in the company. Basically, they want employees to benefit from the company doing well, as this creates more incentive for the employees to perform at a high level.CSWI pays a small dividend (0.44%) which it started in 2019 and has increased every year except 2020. It tries to allocate capital in 2 ways to grow the company. First, is to develop new products. CSW has a long history of quality and works with its customers to develop products they need. They also grow through acquisition. They completed 2 acquisitions in 2022, both completed through cash transactions, not shareholder dilution.Mine safety disclosures: none.The company performs at a high rate of efficiency. ROE is at 19.39% ,which is above their 5 year average of 13.98%. The stock is trading around 27x earnings, which is around the 5 year average or 28.5x. EV/EBITDA is 17.02, just slightly above its 5 year average of 16.6.Looking at those metrics, I would estimate the the stock is currently in the range of fair value, but probably on the high end of that range. Indeed, Morningstar has the fair value at $164.92, and guru focus has it at $156.81. As of writing, the stock price is $171.92, so this confirms my thoughts. | 2023-07-24 |
25 | 4 | How to take profits if you’re holding long term? | null | 43 | 2023-07-24 | Feel dumb asking this but maybe somebody here can give me a straight answer. I’m sure others have this on their mind too. The stock market today is pretty hot and you’d like to take profits. But do you?
If you’re looking to go long term and hold for quite some time, why would you take profits? And even if you do, if everything else is running hot, what do you invest in if you’re just going to wait on a dip? I can’t imagine any pending dip, so long as we don’t go into any major recession or a second pandemic, will be at the numbers worthwhile.
Just trying to figure out if I just HODL my profits and continue to either DCA or take some to reinvest in other stocks while keep a portion still invested.
Thanks for your help! | 2023-07-24 |
26 | 121 | How would you get into the current market? | null | 293 | 2023-07-22 | I have $20,000 that needs to be add to my portfolio. Things could be expensive now or just the start of a 10 year bull market. You, I, and all the ‘experts’ have no idea.
Option 1: DCA with $1,000 per week. Buy extra if market dips during this time. Cash will be held in SHV
Option 2: Lump sum 420 yolo
DCA is popular online but data shows time in the market is the ultimate determinant of returns. (aka lump sum) Thoughts?
Edit:
This is for the long term (in my 20s)
I'm not new to investing. While this is a significant contribution, it only represents a fraction of my existing portfolio | 2023-07-24 |
27 | 0 | AMD suspicious accounting and financial statements? (Goodwill)
literally not true | null | 32 | 2023-07-24 | AMD has 48 billion non tangible assets (goodwill)! This is a huge red flag/risk that the people who buy into it completely ignore yet it's so easy to spot in prima vista. This goodwill wasn't on the financial statements in 2021, so it has nothing to do with the fame of AMD - it has entirely to do with a recent acquisition that they had of Xilinx. The question every intelligent investor should ask himself is if they seriously payed billions for goodwill alone and not actual assets of the company they acquired?
For comparison Coca-Cola is one of the most known companies in the world yet being twice more expensive their goodwill is only 33 billion. I don't find any excuse how a company can get 48 billion goodwill assets in a single year just like that, besides it actually doing accounting shenanigans (scam).
I am looking at the latest financial statement of Xilinx here https://investor.xilinx.com/node/18946/html and I don't see any huge assets/goodwill. I haven't done a great research about this goodwill, but considering that AMD is not more famous in 2023 than it was in 2021 I don't see any reasoning for it's absurdly high goodwill and PE ratio :).
Such financial tricks were being done back in the dot-com bubble and it was easy to spot when a company inflated it's assets via accounting tricks and illegal/bad practices (several great examples were covered in The Intelligent Investor). Where is the due diligence of the people buying into AMD?
To put it in other words Benjamin Graham and his disciples would never touch this company even with a stick!
The only way I could explain this is that they simply had no time to properly organize the Xilinx acquisition in terms of accounting and decided to put everything into Goodwill... But this can be considered still a fraud, no?
If I am at wrong at the accounting is fine how come Xilinx had only 48 billion in goodwill and nothing more? Are you telling me they had 0 machinery, 0 chips, 0 equipment whatsoever?! I see they had 5.5 billion in assets in 2021, but there is no way they had 48 billion goodwill! I think I haven't even heard about them till digging about this AMD goodwill. And I have heard about Texas Instruments many times. | 2023-07-24 |
28 | 11.2k | Geopolitics is your sandbox | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=EQaLSSphA4GO4qVqSmUdpz626bQ39hbrX-jyxld2nsFTMOp7MGhIEGCGoG8ZrJWq_xMuUI5bptxz_-P6jqcZRxbXxlJkaWUWh1WxKvtTI4Ih6dODQtO1_RZgDqkPvJIOZCD95SS2NwhruPTSADWqCeSZc-rfRiHt1uf_1k7whOLWMjBRj6nCyu_pEVEBWs8z3mS_BIMNyI3K2k7fgU8UUOwg8y9mL2NfTXnZt-93HgZONPwxZuwzxLpgV6nyTGi01OOipIKbSJDV1T_O1cl7emEphOz-lGkFFK4lAyXzC1A8NGIoxmatetjE1KHi4ufNb-imPognno5vJ9ff69Gdc5Xv-PAwDolvNoA-1CyTUMsGtDFDWv1sq564SC5_ByRbiFqv&zp=NVbmhXazWu3F94k8ULIeALI1oknBdOopeEVS8CzWANu9LldGi0xKLkPb7ZgL7eD82hLW2QG6ze6AxaUHvaX21YZtdRViq7bw6qiVK9Ap9yBqCzeQ4gPeAfaKjABpIKbgnoGFtVzTgAyPnAUXEdbpZ3rBtjQ3E_tB578cTXx-n-fjnp9ACzB7kC6YS0PvAaDcT9Pd62VBaQ | 1.9k | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
29 | 11 | How corporate actions effectively affects the price of a stock | null | 5 | 2023-07-22 | Hi guys,
Im learning a little bit about how the stock market works in a exchange, and i understood the following:
At the beginning of the day there is an auction at the exchange(before the market starts), people can give their bids and asks, and there is an algorithm at the exchange system to match this, in order to maximize the number of trades. It defines the opening price of the asset, and after that the market operates normally(bids, asks and trades), and at the end of the day there is another auction to define the close price(at the same way as at the morning).
Now saying about corporate actions, i've always used corporate actions to correct prices in the past, but how it works when a corporate action is paid, in the exchange level? in a split for example, the exchange that correct the prices at the auction? or the people their bids and asks at the auction? How does it works for someone (in a brokerage) that sent a order in a day before the split?(the brokerage will correct its offer?, the offer is cancelled?
Thanks in advance! | 2023-07-24 |
30 | 6 | Hive Digital Tech - Thoughts on direction? | null | 6 | 2023-07-22 | Seems like Hive is well-placed to be a force in a few different ways since it’s outside of SEC meddling in Canada, (an advantage over RIOT), and now with a hard turn towards AI, with it’s global network, modest, relatively buttoned-up approach in jocular loud markets like bitcoin and AI. So I Think,… a prime target for buy-out or partnership as a shortcut to AI processing for an image conscious conservative mega company. Any thoughts? Is that nonsense? | 2023-07-24 |
31 | 0 | Starting my portfolio | null | 4 | 2023-07-23 | Hey all,
Just wanted to drop a quick question for yall.
What do we think about FSELX as well as HACK and CIBR?
I have not started my portfolio yet but those are what I'm looking at. Not sure if I want to drop a whole lot of money into one share of VOO even though I know it would treat me well. | 2023-07-24 |
32 | 113 | Does Palantir have a moat? | null | 162 comments | 2023-07-21 | I’m considering buying more of their stock and wondering if they can easily be replaced by another competing company. It seems like if the US government uses them they must have an edge over other companies. Their market cap is kinda small so I feel like they have a ton of room to grow.Are they overpriced at 16.43? Seems hard to say when they are hardly in profit in growth mode.Would love to hear any thoughts and insights into the stock price and how the stock may do in the long term. Cheers! | 2023-07-24 |
33 | Vote | Verliebt, verkatert, hyped oder entspannt. Das Radio SRF Virus ist live mit dir, für alle deine Moods. Mit unseren fünf Hosts mit fünfmal mehr Charakter. Jetzt reinhören und mitreden. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=VaYuKzmqeu5UfA-5vdb2L5tUOCMxoBApUE2IUiDnnk0IGpIa4sdU06_bLAVRrK9hy9YRY2dQa6EPTHXvjFymU3_bHig6ivN67hA5fn1-OZytzWYF7Z-xtPd_LOL-gaL6at_XqGIv_lckKcUi_Y518mNlvLBiUa2_oRhi-cA3wGIUCCHB7qfCmNzhkf6WOn37ugaY3Nxqd7OhqFWm0-SjGcKUjhpajueSLqsHz-s82pm-XylSo2WNtO1ebzHDig_Q-yAf2Kcm_h0lrDAe-YjgW3Xj5Dc8kotJX7CXKZI3X6DdlTgN9PPNcOY7ecVmiiJQ06XEZNkvahuByJjj8IutT4jki6l3cvNtRKCPMWdGqzKiRvJN7asRV_RHfPY1cWK7&zp=k-5kxRsK_MYFBmp3TOlCrRd-1kUuEoPVjIhQAltWDTQuRnxvu8Hied0otL-XlBtrXzvK89n6v1zdC8fnLyWbHCSn-Wgx_m_H85jimyk1VAB9leMq8azT8ygViDt4YifG5OkgXsiFevbNyrb0wz0zjWRhI8vbWIGWSAP-uFyaEqHQVWZsFzfnyJb8UsZkcnGcPo5ATG-XK7NJiw1jvt95lsiDJx_PqrMg9h_7yFM-hrFuYsyGKl9cO-N_knmDtwKEQ5u3-WrYHA | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
34 | 15 | Why you should never invest in INTC (Intel) | null | 153 comments | 2023-07-22 | Atom - Intel flounders industry leadership role and gets crushed by ARM processors for mobile applications.NAND - Intel had NAND fabs in china that weren't even being close to profitable and sold to SK Hynix after wasting billions down the drain.Optane - Micron Technology shut down Joint Venture 3DXPOINT leaving intel without their silicon.Altera -Intel purchased Altera the #2 fpga player for $17 billion vastly over paying and seeing no ROI. Intel no longer breaks their fpga business out in their earnings presentations.4G/5G Modem - complete failure business abandonedBarefoot Networks - complete failure business abandonedGross Margins - INTC 38.4$ AMD 53% AVGO 73% NVDA 67%Talent/Stock - If an engineer at intel got 200k in rsus after 4 years they would be worth $183,784. At nvidia 200k in rsus would be worth $2.1 million. Why would anyone want to work at intel?Capex: heavy cap ex requirements will keep pressure on marginsCompetition: Intel faces stiff completion from AMD and NVIDIA when it comes to CPU applications. They are also missing out as the large datacenter customers develop their own custom silicon.GPU - shit show at first when intel rolled out their cards. So many bugs and just terrible performance but looks like driver issues are being addressed an they are already past AMD and closing in on NVIDIA when it comes to their up sampling technology. I'm not very bullish on their GPUs because they had over a decade of experience for iGPU. It remains to be seen if intel GPPU/XPU products will be adopted by the large data center customers. Gamers are a much smaller slice of teh GPU supply now.Mobile Eye: Probably intel's best decision in their 20 years as a company but they are so desperate for cash they are going to spin them off in an ipo | 2023-07-24 |
35 | 3 | Why are annual EPS forecasts common, but revenue forecasts are not? | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-22 | Putting aside the lack of reliability of forecasts, why is it so common to see most financial sites providing annual EPS forecasts, usually from like 40 analysts, but revenue forecasts are not common?stockanalysis.com is the only free source I'm aware of that offers this.I would think any analyst bothering to forecast annual EPS also has opinions on revenue growths as well. | 2023-07-24 |
36 | 0 | LUMN: A distressed asset play? Timeframes and expectations? | null | 7 comments | 2023-07-22 | This is more of a question post than my own due diligence.Companies like Carvana and Transocean have provided monster returns for investors willing to buy in the “dead period” when nobody cares/company looks like it will go bankrupt. I do think LUMN is 1) trying to bottom and 2) very volatile but a long term chart zoomed out is starting to look kinda flat even with huge up and down daysIn my view, LUMN is saddled with such extreme debt that it could be a deep value play IF they are able to hold on and not go bankrupt. Maybe they can go 5-10x like Carvana or RIG.From what I gather, management seems to have a long term plan that includes asset sales to pay off big chunks of debt, buying back shares (idk if that is a good idea if they are distressed: see Bed Bath and Beyond), later investing a big chunk of capex in a couple years to expand the business, and hopefully roll over the debt.So IMO this is a rates play but I haven’t done enough homework. Bonds seem priced for bankruptcy and maybe that is an awesome way to play the recovery but I bought a handful of shares since it recovered post lead cable FUD (possible capitulation event) with a massive green day and added a few otm call options as far out as I could. I think this isn’t something I would bet big on but it could be a stock where you turn nothing (a very small amount of your money, like .1-.3% of your portfolio) into something (2-3%) if it works out. And sometimes things can work out quite fast. I remember reading about RIG on WSB at the bottom when it was $.80/share and I thought about buying LEAPs and seeing what happened. I didn’t bc too many people said they were going bankrupt and there was too much dilution. Little did I know that in distressed asset investing, it DOES NOT matter if you get diluted to hell. Risk of going to zero trumps that by a lot. If LUMN can also buy back shares along the way, that would be even more impressive, but seems risky to throw away money at reducing the float if you go bankrupt. Additionally, if they sell a bunch of assets, wouldn’t that potentially massively decrease cash flow?Any thoughts on LUMN timeframes, execution risk, and expectations if it works out? How long would this take for the market to not believe they are going bankrupt? | 2023-07-24 |
37 | 12 | /r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jul 22, 2023 | null | 103 comments | 2023-07-22 | This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.Some helpful links:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
38 | 123 | Disney’s stock lifted on report ESPN held talks about possible partnerships with NFL, NBA | null | 53 comments | 2023-07-21 | Shares of Walt Disney Co. DIS, +1.13% rose Friday on a report that company chief executive Robert Iger and ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro have had early discussions with the NFL and NBA about those leagues becoming minority investors in ESPN. The cable sports leader held preliminary talks with the NFL and NBA about new strategic partnerships and investment structures, said a CNBC report, citing people familiar with the situation. “We have a longstanding relationship with Disney and look forward to continuing the discussions around the future of our partnership,” an NBA spokesperson said in a statement. Representatives for ESPN and the NFL declined to comment.(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disneys-stock-lifted-on-report-espn-held-talks-about-possible-partnerships-with-nfl-nba-a483020a) | 2023-07-24 |
39 | 13.1k | US Senators have officially introduced a bipartisan bill to ban lawmakers from trading stocks: | null | 438 comments | 2023-07-20 | US Senators have officially introduced a bipartisan bill to ban lawmakers from trading stocks.The bill would ban members of Congress, executive branch officials, and their families from trading individual stocks.It also prohibits lawmakers from using blind trusts to own stocks, and significantly increases penalties for violations, including fines of at least 10% of the value of the prohibited investments for members of Congress.This bill removes conflicts of interest and ensures officials don't profit at the public's expense.Elected officials should serve the public interest first, not make money trading stocks.Read more: https://www.gillibrand.senate.gov/news/press/release/gillibrand-hawley-introduce-landmark-bill-to-ban-stock-trading-and-ownership-by-congress-executive-branch-officials-and-their-families | 2023-07-24 |
40 | 358 | For the First Time in Six Decades, Net Interest Payments are Moving Opposite to Rates | null | 90 comments | 2023-07-21 | US nonfinancial corporate net interest costs are the lowest in 60 years.https://i.imgur.com/LeAFFvS.jpgSince the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates last year, more and more economists warned that a US recession was imminent.But that recession has not yet arrived, and there's no sign a recession is near even after reliable indicators like the inverted yield curve flashed red flags.According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations.The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. But for the first time in a long time, that isn't happening. Instead, as the Fed raised rates over the past 15 months, corporate net interest payments actually fell."Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy. But not this time," Societe Generale's Albert Edwards said in a Thursday note, pointing to a chart that he called the "strangest" he has seen in a very long time.So, what exactly is happening?It turns out that during the period of near-zero interest rates, especially leading up to the pandemic and during the pandemic, corporations took advantage and refinanced a ton of their liabilities into long-term, low-rate, fixed debt.According to data from Bank of America earlier this year, companies bought themselves some time to navigate higher rates. The debt composition of S&P 500 companies includes just 6% in short-term floating rate debt, just 8% in long-term floating rate debt, 10% in short-term fixed debt, and a whopping 76% in long-term fixed debt.This "helps explain the recession's tardiness," SocGen's Edwards said, highlighting that net interest payments have fallen 25% at a time when they would have risen sharply based on history."Companies have effectively played the yield curve in reverse and become net beneficiaries of higher rates, adding 5% to profits over the last year instead of deducting 10%+ from profits as usual," Edwards said.The lack of a profit decline means companies didn't have to resort to a big wave of layoffs that would have dented the economy and thrown it into a recession.The low-rate, long-term debt held by corporations, combined with their pricing power during a time of elevated inflation, means most businesses were able to grow profits in a big way."Interest rates simply aren't working as they once did. It is indeed a mad, mad world," Edwards concluded.All of this could change if companies have to refinance their debt at higher rates. But with most of their debts not maturing until 2025, 2026, 2027 and beyond, it's possible that interest rates could move lower between now and then, enabling companies to continue to ride the coattails of low rates and ultimately stave off a recession.https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/something-very-strange-explains-why-002654305.htmlEdit: Title should say just lowest in 6 decades. There are a few examples where rates moved against rates like soft landing of 90s. Also 08 but I don't think this is same as 08. | 2023-07-24 |
41 | 23 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=ers4N2tKHpjkg5HBC_Oi3DMiC_C44KoPXm6QAfnpHzaLyLdEjBiE5wn8QHgYWr3E9Ik91s2hOq2lgMLSrqq7ArcnfwUaGbLZ5IXCLwplgMtKpxKOJuWIi4qmNwAohEaETs_Rd1CJzyW7__DHT9X1FcHvlyPYiuPwNs4FZ33FSobnY6P73PTOxDSloHD47TQ4yqpo7gmDTzk1OIesnUpKQHPxikhRVoKSYVr2SuHQxcpdWL3DkptsU-9FmxZZopZRLQ-7MTtiD-FhbeAi6ieMY8PW7FMFmamT8za79XwgGfnW4CAWhtQ199CC-P0gf6YM5fKJq14bWhalXJaP50I282vjmLWaDuzCUT7wCA5eX6q-bS3gD7Qr3uRGLhbfsw&zp=FwyoS9s6riGlwLvfmTIvj5v0OaPD9uxTYW2SuheyIRd_j6ET24AOy4TcZFIUJ_lBti0IC2po40EvGfk3Wcwe9cyMo58pShzQb1p2bMTMD4PgUI--SPu2Cq5Edpo8EhlcHSXecj7fBBJSYO2rPDTuNMwhT_YhzCC0O83j2gfnG04MQ8b0K5k-hXeAbP8 | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
42 | 4 | Your thoughts on the Nasdaq 100 rebalance. | null | 19 comments | 2023-07-22 | I'm lost as to why they would choose to do a rebalance in the way they are doing it this time around.My thoughts are, for one normal economic cycle would mean that over time the top 7 stocks would lose their position and be replaced with other stocks. As has happened in the past. Secondly, the good performance of those stocks would mean that the index keeps performing as desired to indicate the move in technology. Finally, that the rebalancing would just limit the index's ability to be an accurate predictor of the market's performance - to an extent as I consider the SPY a better measure of this.I know my view might be too simplistic, so I am wondering what I might be missing here. | 2023-07-24 |
43 | 34 | Which stocks encompass most trends that have a chance at catching up in the near future? | null | 67 comments | 2023-07-21 | I am talking things like AI, AR, VR, Metaverse (whatever that ends up being)...For example:- Microsoft: they kinda own OpenAI, they also own Github, so they have all the source code to feed their AI to become a God like programmer (Copilot with superpowers), and finally they own HoloLens, the AR platform.- Nvidia: Their GPUs seem to be powering everything futuristic, would've been a great buy few years back. Is there no other public company competing with Nvidia in the GPU chips supremacy?- Unity: Popular game engine that is also widely used to build AR/VR experiences, used by "web3" companies to build their "metaverse" dreams, so I see it as a bit of a crypto play too, and they added AI to the mix to automate game building.Are there any other non-obvious stocks that offer a wide exposure to these kinda futuristic trends? | 2023-07-24 |
44 | 0 | Don’t fall for their trap | null | 29 comments | 2023-07-22 | Ok listen, obviously the 2022 October/December lows was the bottom of this bear market so far. The market sentiment was so bad in Fall 2022 that it seemed like what March 2009 must have felt like.All the articles and media headlines I was reading in December were “The End of the U.S. Dollar”, “Stock Market Will Crash 50%”, and “Get Ready for the Worst Recession Since 2008”. It was max fear.At the all time lows last year, it seemed like the market was pricing in the near 100% probability of a recessionWe all know the market has skyrocketed since January of this year. In the past 6 to 7 months the narrative has flipped. If the market continues to pump towards all time highs the market will soon price in the 100% probability that a recession WON’T happen.Just like with any two extremes the truth is most likely in the middle.Historically, with everything that happened since the pandemic, there should have been a severe economic downturn. We’re kidding ourselves that this time is the exception.What happened is that the media, YouTubers, and influencers were spreading fear for nearly two years that a recession was imminent. Recession fears were in the public’s mind so long that it affected consumer behavior, so there was a lot of cash on the sidelines. Companies preemptively spent over a year getting their balance sheets in order, tech companies especially had a lot of lay offs in 2022. All of this ensured that a severe recession was not going to happen, or at least not on time.When everyone expects a recession it’s not going to happenThe worst, most severe recessions in history were the ones not enough people saw comingWhat’s going to happen is as markets pump to all time highs, and when the media starts assuring people that the recession was cancelled, people are going to let their guard down and the greed will blind them to the risks. When not enough people are anticipating the recession anymore, that’s when the recession comes and wipes us all out.Not sure if the market will reach new all lows worst than the Fall 2022, but it will still be stomach churningThe smart money in the market knows all this. It’s as if most of us haven’t learned out lesson from the bull market bubble of 2020/2021.If you read this far then don’t fall for their trap. Protect yourselfAlso, if you had cash lying around at the end of last year and you sold, you weren’t buying, or you weren’t at least interested in buying, then you should stick to index funds and stop buying individual stocks. You either overestimated your risk tolerance, or you have no conviction in what you own | 2023-07-24 |
45 | 1 | r/Stocks Weekly Thread on Meme Stocks Saturday - Jul 22, 2023 | null | 0 comments | 2023-07-22 | The meme stock scheduled posts will now run weekly and post Saturday afternoon and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here!Full list of meme stocks here. This will be updated every once in a while.Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:Previous meme stock threadsGeneral discussionsThe original GME megathread with a ton of useful informationUse Finviz for aggregated news on your favorite stockAn important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks.Lastly if you need professional help:Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now.Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text “HOME” to 741-741 | 2023-07-24 |
46 | 0 | NYA50R and BPNYA; US stocks are overbought | null | 8 comments | 2023-07-22 | The US stock market looks like it’s getting too hot, as most of the stocks in the NYSE Composite Index are trading well above their 50-day moving average. The NYA50R indicator tells us that 81.04% of the stocks are above this level, which is pretty high compared to history. This means that the market is stretched and could snap back anytime. But the BPNYA indicator shows us that 65.04% of the stocks have a Point & Figure buy signal, which means that the market is still going up and has some support. The difference between the two indicators makes us wonder what’s going on, as some parts of the market are doing better than others. In the next few days or weeks, the market could go either way, as investors try to figure out what to do with these mixed signals. Maybe the market will drop a bit and shake off some of the froth before going up again. Or maybe the market will keep going up and make new records, but with less enthusiasm and participation than before. Investors should be careful and smart in this situation, as the odds are not in their favor for buying more stocks. Sell some risky and volatile stocks that could fall hard in a market drop. Set up some rules or tools to get out of positions if they lose too much money or if they want to keep their gains. Watch the NYA50R and BPNYA indicators closely for any signs that the market is changing its mind or sticking to its plan. | 2023-07-24 |
47 | 17 | Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 24th, 2023 | null | 0 comments | 2023-07-21 | Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 24th, 2023.Dow ekes out narrow gain Friday for 10th straight positive day, longest rally since 2017: Live updates - (Source)Stocks were mixed Friday as traders assessed the latest corporate earnings results, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average stretched its winning streak to 10 sessions.The 30-stock Dow climbed 2.51 points, or 0.01%, to close at 35,227.69. The S&P 500 added 0.03% to end at 4,536.34, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.22% to finish the session at 14,032.81.The Dow narrowly notched its tenth straight day of gains, a feat not seen for the index since August 2017.On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 added 0.69%, while the Dow gained 2.08%. It was the second positive week in a row for the two indexes. The Nasdaq fell 0.57% for the period.Trading was volatile Friday as portfolio managers recalibrated their funds to account for an unusual Nasdaq-100 rebalance taking effect Monday. A large volume of index and stock options also expired Friday.Traders were still eyeing more corporate earnings after a busy week of quarterly results. Transportation giant CSX fell 3.7% on the back of underwhelming results. American Express, meanwhile, dropped nearly 3.9%.Corporate earnings have been mixed thus far. Seventy-five percent of S&P 500 companies that have already reported have exceeded analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet data. However, that beat rate is below a three-year average of 80%, according to The Earnings Scout.″...Overall, early Q2 results appear good enough for equity markets to grind higher for now,” Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau wrote in a Friday note. “Next week will be more indicative of the broad earnings dynamics, with ~50% of market cap reporting.”This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)S&P Sectors for this past week:(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)Major Indices for this past week:(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)S&P Sectors for the Past Week:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)It’s a Bird. It’s A Plane! It’s … the US Economy!We just got a bunch of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2).Long story short: Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn’t even look like the economy is looking for a “landing” at this point.I realize this could change, but so far the data doesn’t indicate much weakness. Now, the monthly data can be volatile, and subject to revisions. So it helps to look at the last three months. Let’s walk through some of the highlights.Consumption Was StrongRetail sales rose at a 4.7% annual pace in Q2.Core retail sales, excluding categories like vehicle and gas station sales, rose at a 6.3% annual pace.Even after adjusting for inflation, “real” retail sales rose at a 1.9% annual pace in Q2, and are currently running 6% above the pre-crisis trend!(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)The Supply Side Is Coming BackVehicle production rose 7.6% in Q2.Production within the aerospace industry rose 4.7% in Q2.High-tech industries are running hot, with production up 3.9%, and almost 17% above pre-pandemic levels.Production of business equipment outside of vehicles and high-tech also looks to have bottomed, which is a positive sign for capex.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Construction is BoomingSingle-family housing permits and starts rose 11% in Q2.An index measuring homebuilder sentiment continues to move higher, indicating that builders are getting more positive about future demand.Meanwhile, total housing units under construction (single-family and multi-family) are near an all-time record.Combine that with a boom in manufacturing construction, and its not a surprise why construction payrolls have increased by 88,000 this year and are about 339,000 above pre-pandemic levels.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)All These Points to Strong Economic GrowthThe Atlanta Fed puts out a “nowcast” of quarterly real GDP growth that is updated with major economic data releases. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% in Q2, after adjusting for inflation.If that is close to actual GDP growth in Q2, it would mean the economy grew 2.6% over the past year. That is not only stronger than the average 2.3% pace of growth between 2010 and 2019, but it also matches the pace of growth over the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019), when economic growth picked up.What is amazing is that the economy accelerated after a poor first half of 2022 even as the Federal Reserve hiked rates aggressively, taking the federal funds rate from 0.25% to 5.25%.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6% over the past year, and headline inflation fell from 9% to 3%.It really doesn’t get better than that. Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to believe a major slowdown is in the cards at this point.Seasonal Bump Absent in Claims DataAmong the many economic indicators updated this morning, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected, falling to 228K. That reversed the recent jump in claims observed throughout the late spring.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted data helps to explain the recent decline in the adjusted number. As shown below, barring the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, claims remain at one of the higher readings for the current week of the year in recent history. Typically, in late June and early July, seasonal headwinds cause a significant bump in claims. This year, that increase has been relatively modest.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Pivoting to continuing claims, the indicator had been on the decline since early April, but the first two weeks of July have seen a modest turn higher. At those levels, continuing claims remain in the middle of the range from the few years leading up to the pandemic.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Bulls DominateThe past week has provided some positive developments on the inflation front that in turn sent equities higher. In response, readings on investor sentiment have shown a dramatic positive turn. The latest AAII survey showed more than half of respondents reported as bullish for the first time since April 22, 2021. As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, this week's reading ended an over two-year-long streak without a reading above 50% which was the third longest such streak on record.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Given the elevated reading of bullish sentiment, a minor share of respondents are reporting as bearish. In fact, that reading fell to 21.5% this week which is the lowest reading since June 2021.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Last year saw a record streak of weeks where bearish sentiment outnumbered bullish sentiment. With the total reversal in sentiment, the bull-bear spread now heavily favors bulls. The spread reached 29.9% this week for the highest reading since April 2021.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)The gains to bullish sentiment have not entirely come from bears. Neutral sentiment is also reaching new lows, registering just 27.1% this week. Unlike bearish sentiment, that is only the lowest level since the last week of 2022.In tonight's Closer we will discuss the surge in other sentiment indicators and what that has historically meant for S&P 500 performance.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)DJIA Advances for 8th Straight Day – Historically Bullish for Next 3 Months(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)For the 54th time since 1950, DJIA has recorded a daily winning streak of at least eight days. This is DJIA’s first 8-day winning streak since 2019. During the current streak DJIA has advanced 3.93%. Of the prior 53 daily winning streaks lasting eight or more trading days, 26 ended at 8 days, 14 ended at 9 days, 8 made it to 10 days, while 2 made it to 11 and 12 days. DJIA’s longest daily winning streak of 13 days was in January 1987. DJIA also enjoyed an 8-day winning streak in July 1987. Based upon the last 53 streaks, there is only a modest 50.9% chance of the current streak continuing to 9 days or longer.Historically, daily winning streaks of 8-trading days or more have been bullish even after they ended. Over the 1-, 2-week, 1-, and 3-month periods after the daily winning streak ended DJIA was higher, 98.1%, 98.1%, 96.2% and 90.6% respectively. The only significant decline within 3 months of a daily streak end was a 19.22% loss in 1987.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Reality Check for Housing StartsAfter a blockbuster report for May where Housing Starts and Building Permits both surged, there was a bit of a reality check in June. While Building Permits were expected to come in at 1.50 million, the actual reading came in at 1.44 million representing a 3.7% m/m decline and a drop of 15.3% y/y. One positive of this report, though, was that single-family units actually increased 2.2% and are only down 2.7% y/y even as multi-family units plunged 12.8% m/m and over 30% y/y. With respect to Housing Starts, the headline reading also missed estimates by 46K (1.434 mln vs 1.480 mln). Not only did June's reading miss forecasts, but May's reading was revised lower, so that the originally reported 231K beat was more like 159K. Even after that downward revision, though, Housing Starts declined 8.0% m/m and 8.1% y/y.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Following May's report, we noted that the 12-month moving average of Housing Starts had broken its streak of 12 straight declines, but this month, the moving average resumed its downtrend and fell to its lowest level since February 2021. Similarly, the 12-month moving average for Building Permits declined below 1.49 million for the first time since December 2020 and posted its 11th straight decline.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Taking a longer-term look at the 12-month moving average for Housing Starts, it remains in its well-established downtrend. As shown in the chart below, prior periods where this average peaked and started to rollover usually preceded recessions.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)A comparison of Housing Starts versus the performance of homebuilder stocks is a perfect example of how the market tends to trade in advance of events. Just as homebuilder stocks peaked four months ahead of the peak in Housing Starts, they bottomed five months in advance of the recent low in the three-month moving average.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Homebuilders HopefulHousing activity has been somewhat muted given a dearth of inventories, but the lack of available existing supply has been positive for homebuilders. The NAHB's monthly survey of homebuilder sentiment moved higher in July for its seventh straight monthly gain. Even after the rebound, the current level of 56 represents just a 13-month high and is below the range of readings from the few years prior to the pandemic and historic readings in two years before the pandemic.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)The improvement in the headline index was primarily driven by increases in present sales and traffic. Geographically, the Midwest and South saw some modest softening in sentiment whereas the West and Northeast were much more impressive. The Northeast in particular saw an 8-point jump which ranks in the top decile of all monthly moves on record and brings the index into the top quartile of historical readings.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Although homebuilder sentiment has been rebounding solidly, it pales in comparison to the strength of homebuilder stocks. Proxied by the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB), homebuilders have continued to set new 52-week highs on a near-daily basis. The ETF has now risen 56% over the past year and has continuously traded in overbought territory (currently extremely overbought with a price more than 2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA).(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Homebuilder earnings are also on deck in the next couple of weeks. Below, we show a screenshot from the Earnings Explorer function of our Custom Portfolios. As shown, all but three S&P 1500 Homebuilders are due to report through the first week of August. Of those, a vast majority have averaged positive moves on earnings.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)The Dollar is Weakening – Why That’s Good for US InvestorsAt the beginning of the year, we wrote in our 2023 Outlook that the US dollar was poised to weaken, creating tailwinds for Americans who invest in International stocks and S&P 500 earnings. We reiterated that this is starting to happen in our Mid-Year Outlook, “Edging Closer to Normal.”The chart below shows the recent swing in the ICE US Dollar Index, which measures changes in the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, including the euro, yen, British pound, and the Canadian dollar. It rose 27% between May ’21 and September ’22, but has pulled back 12% since then.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)A Boost for USD-Based International Equity InvestorsWhen an investor in the US uses dollars to buy a basket of international stocks, the interim step is first converting those dollars to the local currency, which introduces currency risk. Note that when you see quotes for international stock exchanges, like the Nikkei (Japan) or the DAX (Germany), those are in local currency terms. To buy European stocks, you must first convert dollars to euros. Your returns are not just dependent on what the European stocks do; it’s also dependent on what happens to the euro relative to the dollar. If the euro appreciates against the dollar, that’s a tailwind to your investment, whereas a stronger dollar acts as a headwind.From September 30th of last year through July 14th, the MSCI EAFE Index, which represents a basket of international stocks across developed markets, outperformed the S&P 500 Index. The MSCI EAFE Index gained 35.2% versus 27.4% for the S&P 500. But as you can see from the table below, that outperformance is because of a tailwind from a weaker dollar. Emerging market stocks have also seen a tailwind from a weaker dollar but have underperformed due to a murky economic picture in China.Even over the past month and half (May 31st through July 14th), the dollar took a renewed plunge, boosting returns for international stocks.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)A Tailwind for EarningsOver the last two decades, movements in the US dollar have negatively correlated with S&P 500 earnings changes. Excluding recessions and post-recession recoveries (since those skew the numbers significantly in either direction), earnings weakness for the S&P 500 has coincided with dollar strength, whereas a weaker US dollar has correlated with stronger earnings growth.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)This makes some intuitive sense once you realize that 40% of S&P 500 revenue comes from outside the US. The logic here is that if a company used to sell a machine abroad that generated the equivalent of $1,000 in the past, now that would be about $1,100 because the local currency rose 10% against the US dollar.So, while the US economy is very relevant for S&P 500 company earnings, much of it also hinges on what happens outside the US and what happens with the US dollar.Why Is the Dollar Weakening?It probably helps to understand why the dollar strengthened in the first place. The simplest explanation is that interest rate differentials between the US and other countries rose – the idea is that if interest rates are much higher in country A rather than country B, money will flow into country A, thus raising the value of that country’s currency.The chart below shows the dollar index on the top panel, while the bottom panel shows the difference between 1-year US treasury yields and EU government 1-year yields. You can see how the dollar has moved higher when interest rate differentials climb, most notably after 2014 and in 2022. In contrast, the dollar has pulled back when the differential falls, which is what happened in 2019-2020 and this year.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Short-term interest rates, like 1-year yields, are an estimate of central bank target rates over the next year. 1-year yields in the US surged in 2022 because the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates to tame inflation. They were much more aggressive than their counterparts at the European Central Bank (ECB).You can see the difference between the Fed and ECB’s target interest rates below. The differential jumped in 2022 but it’s been pulling back recently. The Fed’s taken its foot off the gas, while the ECB remains aggressive. Since the beginning of the year, the Fed has raised rates by 0.75%-points, whereas the ECB has raised it by 1.5%-points.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)The reason is that US inflation has started to pull back, and is poised to fall further – see our blog from last week discussing this. In contrast, European inflation has remained stubbornly high, which has kept the ECB much more hawkish. In fact, core inflation (excluding volatile components like food and energy) is currently running at 6.8% year-over-year in the Eurozone. That compares to a 4.9% core CPI reading in the US. Up until September 2022, core inflation in the US was running higher than Eurozone core inflation – and then things switched, which shifted investor expectations and sent the dollar lower.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)We expect this dynamic to continue as US inflation eases further, while Europe deals with higher inflation and a more hawkish central bank. Tighter policy does create some headwinds for European equities, but that’s offset by a stronger currency. Combine this with the tailwind that a weaker dollar creates for S&P 500 company earnings, and we are keeping our overweight to US equities while maintaining International developed market stocks at neutral. Emerging markets remain at underweight.S&P 500's Best and Worst Performers During a Monster WeekAfter weaker-than-expected inflation data inflated the prices of just about every financial asset, there were some very big winners by the end of last week. The table below lists the 20 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 last week, which includes eight stocks that rallied more than 10%. Double-digit gains are typically considered very good for an entire year, so when large-cap stocks move that much in a week, it's impressive. Topping the list, shares of Match (MTCH) gained nearly 14% followed by DR Horton (DHI), Domino's (DPZ), and MGM Resorts (MGM). Among these four top performers and the other stocks listed, it is a somewhat eclectic group of stocks. One well-represented group on the list is the homebuilders. Along with DHI, Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM) both also made the list. In terms of YTD returns, though, last week's biggest winners weren't solely the ones that have been rallying all along or the losers playing catch up; there was actually a little bit of everything. Three of the stocks listed (Etsy, Newell, and Sealed Air) are still down by double-digit percentages YTD while four (Pulte, Align, salesforce, and Monolithic Power) are up over 50%! Besides those extreme movers, there are also a few stocks that merely had single-digit YTD percentage gains before last week's spikes higher. One thing that just about all of these stocks have in common now, though, is that they headed into this week at short-term overbought levels of a varying degree.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)In total, there were just 88 stocks in the S&P 500 that declined last week, and only 53 of those fell more than 1%. Of those 53 stocks, the table below lists the 20 worst performers which all fell more than 3%. This is also an eclectic group in terms of both their lines of business and their YTD performance heading into the week. The only stock down by double-digit percentages was Progressive (PGR) which now makes it down on the year as well. Right behind PGR, shares of Carnival (CCL) fell 9.5%, but unlike PGR, it's still up by over 100% YTD. Besides CCL, two other cruise operators (Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean) also sank during last week's rising tide, but they have also seen huge rallies on a YTD basis. Financials are another sector that was well-represented on last week's loser list. Besides PGR, State Street (STT), Allstate (ALL), Northern Trust (NTRS), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), and Travelers (TRV) all bucked last week's bullish trend. Unlike just about all of last week's winners which are now overbought, many of the week's worst performers are still trading within normal ranges of their 50-day moving averages.(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)DISCUSS!What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :) | 2023-07-24 |
48 | 0 | This Giant Investor Just Doubled Its Stake in Lucid Motors (LCID) Stock | null | 5 comments | 2023-07-22 | Struggling startup Lucid (LCID) just received some important news.A large-scale investment management fund has doubled down on its LCID position.This could signal a turnaround for the electric vehicle (EV) producer.https://investorplace.com/2023/07/this-giant-investor-just-doubled-its-stake-in-lucid-motors-lcid-stock/ | 2023-07-24 |
49 | 3 | Trade worldwide with a broker you can trust! Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=yx-TM3o5eUO9eTaYKkgbSKGPIVHF8XKlUM78DaGcfMnwLW30R_bjReGuxItH5oq672uwTQyOr-c80u1dXuCGkqlay2-F7BbiAqW4RFm3CxUiJvmsvtlsAYF33ptFIRWhVDCqiX01xmp6YfjrSNonfLaZDeHCZEVFBX18zkRKDSwZHSzH24bXYo82wG5k9ZTUj5xtAO5GF5nxo4Yi7WPyIWyrqnutPlx5ePry5NnwU1yt-6Df1HkoK3fK0XwqWWHMVVdYtNYJvWF1EDjRKurT6yOUFcV8Nk49NqI53Nw1rMemTi3lcVJUH_ozCciyJ4sEoPLVIVu8aHcjdI8NuvDwBhqvHcYSuEaaI-V6TJPjVj_N4Un717mSNEEBIYGqC1D4Te5KQwYt&zp=zJs1FfqfQfb0UDRq4fwlMeRsuHGcN-x2o2Zsk00esvioyBsNE8sfVkOt18kjGrc3Lr1KfyIJQ60XZhkJtZBCko-TtkD0Vrxaerkdufz6auHNZW-Gtv-F9myZlZW7iJeEmRL02FSZvKgaVrKT02uIyH4JilCb_wPzUt6f2V9Wpq50jm-dHWfsdY9onpEeVx0Xv2P5_hq7JMqDgE25Zw1mDX-cSGOXUn6BMQ_dPKQi7v8ty2K5GbJhZyox1F3TE8n6yt4Iog | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
50 | 23 | Verizon & T Bull Case | null | 32 comments | 2023-07-21 | Here is one of the few bull cases for Verizon and AT&T recently published. As always due your own DD. Also please keep in mind that both report earnings next week. $VZ reports on 7/25 and $T reports on 7/26. It might be prudent to wait until after earnings before making a buy decision.https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/here-are-2-high-dividend-telecom-buys-16129280?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOOHighlights if you reach a paywall.AT&TThe selloff in AT&T shares appears overdone. With expected adjusted EPS of $2.40 for 2023, AT&T stock now trades for a P/E ratio of 6.2. AT&T has traded at an average price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 over the last decade. We view AT&T as undervalued, with a fair value P/E of 10. As a result, estimated returns for AT&T of 18% per year, based on returns from an expanding valuation multiple, EPS growth, and dividends.VerizonWe view Verizon as a strong dividend stock. In September 2022, Verizon announced that it was increasing its quarterly dividend 2% to $0.6525. The company has a dividend growth streak of 18 consecutive years.Based off of the current share price and the midpoint of earnings guidance for 2023, Verizon has a forward P/E of 7.2. We reaffirm our target P/E of 11, leaving potential for significant returns from an expanding multiple. In addition to EPS growth and dividends, we estimate total returns at 16.7% per year over the next five years. | 2023-07-24 |
51 | 0 | How can I make investing into the stock market a business/full time job? | null | 29 comments | 2023-07-22 | Hello I’ve recently been researching about investing into the stock market, been watching some YouTube tutorials and plan on going onto paper trading to get a feel of things before I risk actual money. So far I’m really interested and my original goal was to simply do this as a side hustle to get extra money for retirement and buying myself and my family some things from time to time (basically be more financially stable), is it practical and probable for me to make this full time? If so how? And what would it be like from day to day? | 2023-07-24 |
52 | 52 | Wells Fargo Earnings Discussion | null | 6 comments | 2023-07-21 | Due to weak fundamentals and other problems hurting the bank's performance, Wells Fargo's operating performance did not improve considerably in Q2 2023 despite an earnings and revenue beat. The bank's overall revenue has decreased due to difficulties in other areas like reduced loan origination and poorer trading gains, and the beat was mostly accredited to higher interest rates that remained for a longer period of time than expected. Although WFC's operational costs came slightly under $13 billion for the quarter, its efficiency ratio is at 63% and is predicted stay within 63-65% for future years, which indicates low efficiency.Wells Fargo's share price has been trading sideways for the past couple of years, indicating that the bank has other issues that have been a drag on its shares even though the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates at a pace over the past year, which theoretically is positive for banks and should be a support for higher share prices. Wells Fargo is a bank with a business profile that is heavily oriented towards retail and commercial banking, with less of a focus on investment banking. As a result, it is significantly exposed to increased interest rates. Therefore, even though Wells Fargo would profit from higher interest rates more than some of its direct competitors, the company's share price performance has not differed significantly from that of its peers in recent years due to weakness in other business segments.However, assuming that the Federal Reserve is reaching the end of its current rate hike cycle and may, hypothetically, decrease interest rates in 2024 or later, further increases in its efficiency ratio should come primarily from cost-cutting, an area where Wells Fargo has a pretty poor track record.At the end of June, its core tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 10.7%, comfortably above its capital requirement of 9.2%. Even though the bank's capital ratio dropped to 8.2% in the bad scenario—one of the greatest drops among U.S. large banks—its capital position is strong, as evidenced by the most recent stress test results. However, this capital ratio was far higher than the minimum required, demonstrating the bank's strong capitalization and ability to continue its capital return to shareholders programme.https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/14/wells-fargo-wfc-2q-2023-earnings.html#:~:text=The%20bank's%20total%20net%20income,from%20%245.5%20billion%20last%20year. | 2023-07-24 |
53 | 8 | Apple Earnings call and financial Release | null | 18 comments | 2023-07-21 | Hello, I'm pretty new to All that, I would like to ask, what the Earnings call and financial Release is about.I guess on the financial Release they show the world what profits and numbers are made. What are the important things to look out for when those are released?Is it possible to see forehand what might happen on these days, is it a good take to buy or sell and reinvest or to buy more?I thank every answer. I hope unknowingly me isn't bothering. | 2023-07-24 |
54 | 29 | r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jul 21, 2023 | null | 362 comments | 2023-07-21 | This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.Some helpful day to day links, including news:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsMost fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earningsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Useful links:Investopedia page on fundamental analysis including Discounted Cash Flow analysis; see definition here and read their PDF on the topic.FINVIZ for fundamental data, charts, and aggregated newsEarnings Whisper for earnings detailsSee our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. | 2023-07-24 |
55 | 2 | Thought on regional bank plays with earnings out? - I think they look good. Looking at WAL Preferred Stock as 66% upside and 7% divident
Company Discussion | null | 26 | 2023-07-21 | With regionals and banks declaring earnings this week I think they're looking pretty good. What happened in March with SVB and whatnot, in my opinion, is looking more and more like mania coupled with a some idiosyncratic band management practices at a couple banks mainly SVB. Curious if anybody has any plays or insight they want to share.
I'm looking pretty heavily at Western Alliance Preferred Shares (WAL.PRA). WAL was beat when rumors came out that it along with PACW were looking for significant asset shares that caused those two stocks to drop significantly. WAL came out and denied it and it appears it may have been a short run attempt, but either way WAL stock price still not all the way back.
WAL declared earnings this week and they're looking pretty good. Not only did they gain $3 billion dollars in deposits this quarter, going from about $47 billion to $50 billlion, but they've also indicated thye've had an additional $2 billion increase in deposits to date which would bring them up to $52 billion or so and, importantly, above where they were last year in deposits. Meaning not only was the flow-out not that bad, but they're actually starting to grow deposits above where they were before all the bank-runs happened this year.
Additionally, for real estate exposure, they have about $9 billion in CRE loans relative to about $50 billion in loans total, and only $2.3 billion of the CRE is in specifically office space and only 3% of that is in central business districts. They've focused more on suburban office space. Additionally, they're median Loan-To-Value ratio is about 58% meaning that if they building they gave CRE loans on dropped 40% in value, the bank's equity would still be protected and the bank would not take a hit (this is building specific but on a median overall level this should be true). Thus, their is significant downside protection before the bank's equity starts having to take a hit on the CRE they provided loans on. Accordingly, overall, it looks like they're pretty protected and outside or an apocalyptic type event - as oppose to CRE taking a 30% to 40% hit - WAL should be alright.
Their net interest income is also positive at about 3.4% and they expect it to start going up now with rates stabilizing and whatnot.
Thus, overall I think WAL is looking pretty attractive.
What I think is an interesting play though is there preferred stock. It's a fixed rate, value of $25 that when issued in 2021 was set at 4.25% payment. But, it resets every 5 years to the 5 year treasury rate plus 3.45%. The first reset date is 2026. Because treasury rates are high - meaning the 4.25% current payout has to normalize to current treasury rates plus a risk premium for the preferred not being a treasury - the preferred stock is currently trading at about $15.70 a share, an about 7% yield.
But, when the rate resets in 2026 to market rate/the stock derisks as more time goes on assuming there isn't a 2008 type fallout, then the base price should trend back up to $25 a share. And, if you buy now while it's a $15.70 and the rate resets in 2026 to likely a 6.5% yield or higher (if treasuries are 4% then the rate would reset to 7.45%), not only will the preffered stock value apprecaite back up to $25 a share but you would then be getting likely a 10% to 12% yearly dividend yield on what you bought it for.
Curious people's thoughts on this, or other play's they are looking at.
Summary: WAL.PRA currently trading at $15.70 with a 7% yield. The stock should appreciate to $25 by 2026 if everything goes smoothly and the yield rate will reset in 2026 to likely a 6.5% yield or higher. Thus, buying now you could be looking at getting a 7% yield while you wait for a 66% capital appreciation in the stock from $15.70 to $25 over the next couple of years; and, at that point, not only would you have 66% capital appreciation but when the rate resets you would likely be getting a 10% to 12% yearly dividend yield on what you invest. | 2023-07-24 |
56 | 28 | Building a 500k-1m home in the next 5-10 years. Have 300k just sitting in cash. What would you do?
Advice | null | 122 | 2023-07-21 | Already plan on moving most of it to a hysa (Robinhood maybe?), Maybe a few bonds or T Bills, but should I even invest in stocks if I plan to take it out in 10 years? I was told to put it all in 50% VOO or VTI, 20% VXUS, 20% HYSA, 10% BND. Age 32, no Roth IRA, self employed, average income 100k-200k a year. Here are the top symbols I see recommended in other forums, if someone could let me know the difference or which ones are good I would appreciate it. Thank you!
• VOO • VTI • VT • VWO • VXUS • SCHD • SWPPX • SWTSX • SWISX • QQQM • DLN • SPY • KBWD
Bonds • VCIT • VTC • BND | 2023-07-24 |
57 | Vote | Wirtschaftspsychologin Sara Beit Saeid arbeitet bei MHP an Konzepten, die alle Mitarbeiter*innen an den Veränderungsprozessen mitnimmt. Sie sagt: „Bei der Digitalisierung geht es darum, dass alle das, was sie bereits gut machen, noch besser machen können.“ | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=cONJYAltqxNufy_oifXZpLl5x1skUfqAseuSXApQj9-JIOajGegisrtymCAKrdonLUIKXl7kwY2h7IHP34HZRXXhuKM5ZiQznn6nGTP51cUZsapUfWq69hkZFXF9CTnFOlb8sW5Xf87L5GKfxiEOVbfrADZY1ZAmt92TdBLql_PfbwWuM4BUjNWRUG_2wBxkkbRBloofp01KcuvSVvWtILzv4MxTrTIYdDW3sY9GosUzP869BpeVLxPuYKDQQ9_R5RpI0jIqWPc1yljGtoBCkRJsLdGQZeZ07ZBsAjewnnsqhq0i1yYorqpWMntWoVigu-qGACB6ED5RmwelGikcrDWcj5YiydXsjVluqeOTeC-mrOSSg53pURxuFwQ1xizb&zp=M9gB04oZgCNOGJjIebppob4o0uct2W7zWxxKzQ53_daxHtu1HJVawuOqNrOXNXneZLC89sLelOaYEWjy4vDHKKFCD72xNYdmbswPpNhoCYecVxjof30Wszgue5P75IlsBlP98JC7-FhUl4EuxBGo8UKa0W-YDOHrg5fDAKIT1Bo6HP6YClvNYP7FTCrok1pnIx1yJR1rjXsEZIbMq4UHVf1uYllaSpLO0daNBxljs8B8iD5zdPxNEXaLlOs | 0 | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
58 | 264 | TSMC warns of deepening chip slump as AI boom fails to offset economic woes | null | 111 | 2023-07-20 | The world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, has warned of a deepening semiconductor slump, as the boom in artificial intelligence fails to offset global economic woes and China’s delayed recovery.
TSMC now expects its 2023 revenue to drop by 10 per cent, rather than the less than 5 per cent it forecast three months ago, the Taiwanese company told investors on Thursday. This would translate into a 15 per cent revenue decrease in the second half of the year, compared with the same period in 2022.
“Three months ago we were probably more optimistic, but now [we are] not. The recovery of the Chinese economy is weaker than we thought, so end-market demand is not as we expected,” said CC Wei, chief executive. “Although we have very good AI end-market demand, it is not enough to offset [that weakness].”
The warning comes as the growth of large language models behind generative AI services such as ChatGPT is boosting the need for high-end processors for data centres, with TSMC making chips for Nvidia, whose AI processor business is booming.
https://www.ft.com/content/f433971d-fd8e-4ed3-91e9-e25a96284ea0 | 2023-07-24 |
59 | 19 | Best growth oriented mid and small cap stocks? | null | 41 | 2023-07-21 | Anyone have thoughts on Olin, Zscaler or Welltower? Looking to reallocate about 20% of my portfolio that is currently invested in APPL. Would also love to hear any picks for small or mid cap companies with really good growth potential as the bulk of my portfolio is pretty balanced. The assets I have in Apple are earmarked for a more risky, higher growth allocation. Since i'm sure people would think i'm crazy to sell APPL, I have a rule not to invest in any companies working on or involved in accelerating the push for generative AI(MSFT, GOOG, META, NVDA). And yes it sucks watching those stocks skyrocket. Luckily I get my entertainment from watching my long term TSLA position and recent RIVN shares fluctuate wildly.
This is a crosspost, sorry if i annoyed anybody. | 2023-07-24 |
60 | 1 | What are some stocks that worth selling covered calls? | null | 17 | 2023-07-21 | I got a few stocks with price between 15-50 like, GOLD WBD PINS ALLY BAC PAYPAL INTC
Looking for some more stocks that have tempting premium.
Btw, what do you think about DOCU, U? I know they’re very risky, but their premiums…. And I don’t care holding these long term.
Mention some worthy stocks. | 2023-07-24 |
61 | 0 | Any strategy for windfalls? | null | 15 comments | 2023-07-21 | I know the safe play is DCA into an index fund. Should I have any strategy on a large windfall (50k+)?The market looks expensive to me right now. I don't love plowing 50k into it with the uncertainty over whether this bullmarket ends. Should I pump it all into an index fund day 1? Do a portion and leave the rest liquid in a MM account and see how things play?any suggestions? | 2023-07-24 |
62 | 23 | Das mit Spannung erwartete Einzelspieler-Weltraum-Action-RPG EVERSPACE 2 erscheint am 15. August 2023 für PlayStation 5 und Xbox Series X|S! 🚀🚀🚀 Jetzt mit 20% Rabatt auf PlayStation vorbestellen oder an Tag 1 über Xbox Game Pass spielen und beim Kauf 20% sparen! | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=AoSZrRkrdG_vwSxHVjhwk7FQIyduqUEb29TanlpmahVPjxm5QktpCbQsKpd4xqLbgY9WdcMWs-Q6hUVXvMyZ7XC4FGiXjWADCju87uwKs4lSMMtHSxwdiRlvFhkQDZywBsjEkxW_b_HvHIR_68s3eqXpBuEBr8fCJPq80wPXnWeG-MjsoXCL-FnOqp2MSxWAkdgldt2qr-7DEao1q5c8nstZTAbQ0VkFHtLhO42b70eYDqcg-ABmD6parVVSZMWkjLc8Rqc6CPomiMS7dFUofEe7leZN4gzm38olIBOUu8FniXCb-bWY9M0-YXLOaU80lKM9apIgg3dp7d5uu85CjTBUw5nhXakaD94VtZE0gayGIA1DVIoLkcICUUYaAw&zp=QGgKgmlJ5rbP7mlkgCtPwbEYOk7FlQc3vXUchxo3PjYP_YBqKlzY2HAte91AFh6GyenG_VMSl8Xzc9bSpviwzbN9T2aboyr82WE329lCPUNJwixVCg87S05cV5EGkNABB4U-gfSD-PPSzauObSuKQrmcog8DcyJCExKWwVatH-ZZopIYDOcUu4b9H14 | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
63 | 2 | Replacing stock certificates | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-21 | I was gifted some shares when I was a kid, I get the mail correspondence and whatnot, but no one seems to know what happened to the certificates. I am a newbie when it comes to this stuff; can someone point me in the right direction to get them replaced? | 2023-07-24 |
64 | 678 | Are we supposed to ignore cumulative inflation? Prices have gone up 18%+ on average in 3 years. bullish for economy and stocks, right? | null | 447 comments | 2023-07-20 | People like to focus on YoY inflation compared to previous year, ignoring 2-3 years ago.Things went from relatively stable 2-3% yoy inflation prior to covid, to a quick jump during 2021-2023.So cpi July 2021 was 5% over July 2020, July '22 was 9% over 2021. July '23 will be 3% over 2022.cumulative inflation is way up. After a slow steady price increase from 2010-2020, we got a big spike during 2021-2023, and now we resume a slow steady increase from here forward.doing the math, total inflation is ~18%+ in 3 years since 2020. That's roughly 6-9 years worth of inflation pulled forward.So what now? Looks like consumers are not consuming less; they are accepting the higher prices.Now we just wait for wages to hurry up and go up 18% so consumers can pay off their credit card debt? iphone prices will never fall back down, so that means AAPL will reach $300 quicker.Time to buy everything hand over fist?spend more money, ask for more money... This is sustainable, yes? | 2023-07-24 |
65 | 65 | I fucked up my whole investment strategy | null | 170 comments | 2023-07-20 | Hi,In 2019 I invested about 70% of my networth (6 digits) in an ETF called IWDA. I saw it as my savingsaccount that is extremely stressfree with little swings.During the start of this year I was on Twitter alot and the sentiment was extremely bearish. Especially that guy KimDotCom made me scared about the trajectery of the USA.Mid april I sold my whole ETF portfolio in the run up to 73€. I made a decent profit these 3 years of about 20%.My mindstate was: this ship is going down, I will be able to buy back lower and if not I will find investments that will give a bigger return.It dipped lower the week after, but I was cocky and didn't set my buy orders yet thinking it would dip way further.Jokes on me, it never did, the market just went straight up and it's been bothering me ever since. It's such a stable ETF that even on red days like today it still doesn't go down. And I just live with pain and discomfort ever since. It is clear to me that I might never will be able to buy back at the the price I want. I know the rules: time in the market beats timing the market, DCA, ... but I guess fear and greed got me.Any advice books or courses on value investing? I can't just rebuy IWDA in this current mania but I can't just sit and do nothing either. So I want to just this opportunity to become a better value investor and use this situation to build a stronger portfolio that will outperform my previous one.Max painThanks in advance | 2023-07-24 |
66 | 3 | IWDA performance/holdings | null | 4 comments | 2023-07-21 | Hi guys,At the risk of sounding stupid I'm still going to ask this question. Because if I don't asking dumb questions I might never learn.The famous ETF IWDA which is very tech heavy (22.1% IT) and top 10 holdings are the big 7. Yet they didn't even drop after yesterdays big drop in tech (Tesla down 10%, Amazon, 3%,...) Nasdaq was down 2,2% and SP was down 0,6%.Yet the IWDA valuation in Euro is higher then it was 48 hours ago. How is this possible?https://www.ishares.com/nl/particuliere-belegger/nl/producten/251882/ishares-msci-world-ucits-etf-acc-fund (This is in Dutch and Euro)I am well aware that the Euro - Dollar ratio went from 1.12 to 1.11 this time but this still doesn't seem enough to explain this priceaction.I am just trying to learn from this situation. Thanks alot in advance | 2023-07-24 |
67 | 79 | Predictions: Next 1T company? | null | 151 comments | 2023-07-20 | With Nvidia being a sub favorite and recently crossing the 1T valuation, I am curious what this sub thinks the next 1T company will be in 2-3 years?Looking at a list of companies valued in the 100B-300B market cap range, there are some interesting options: AMD Netflix ABDE CRM NOW | 2023-07-24 |
68 | 0 | Can TSLA hit $290 again before august 18? | null | 81 comments | 2023-07-21 | I gambled bad. I bought august 18 calls the day after earnings. They’re down like 15k (50% right now). I’ve lost so quickly…I should have sold today to salvage what I have but I can’t bring myself to realize that loss.I don’t play Tesla much. I know it has a lot of energy and tends to run. I’m wondering if anyone here has any idea if it can run to $290-$295 by time my calls expire.This really sucks. | 2023-07-24 |
69 | 0 | Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger - huge upside? | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-21 | Recently Spirit ended its alliance thing with American https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/jetblue-wont-appeal-ruling-against-american-airlines-partnership.html , which was cited in the Justice Depts press release as part of its rationale for filing a suit to stop the merger https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit. With the American deal done it would seem there's a lot less ammo for the Justice dept to use. I have not seen much analysis on the new development besides this article which really reads neutral at best for the deal, possibly more positive https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/will-abandoning-american-help-jetblues-spirit-merger-not-by-much-2023-07-06/ . Current SAVE price is ~$19, merger price (set to close June '24) is at $33.50, a ~75% gain. Given the government's recent loss in stopping the Activision merger I just think there's even less of a competitive concern here, but what do I know. | 2023-07-24 |
70 | 7 | Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=o5-CiKabpa7iPHSFC6qroCT-5Wr8vCLxnGbdfBkOmyQ4UGxw88KrAbg65ohP3FvhQgcqvUVjsuyfhdUlXq83AgyXlgKbNQr7zQnF3NxKWNWlTDo_WlJ393m8x61uusmd3bheZReQ_KnGxcMeLunEtkggOFt3DbjJds9CQzsgFa2bQJCvjWCsNX30BETfBdJB5eThJO4jXmo-o5-s0CqW16eif6uUskU9qzdtj2DSlQy2zCvT9GIdIZB_62cg4MMzLfrsoduabI7bNoPeFzwkRoGLcNfPU9gkD1TRGLluLsjCXjhhcEmcnLnl9JTAVUSpfkm4Uk7wym8kjDJCYZcFjNQY6Q1cGl1IikUqjJqUo_kepu4AAj22YofImob8bZatFznBkmM-&zp=NOQDsKJ4AmvOy31SthmF-H1QuC9bBAk3-OoxLpflOou0y6Dy5hLXoGe4MjyjEoO9TPOM8ib57SCv2M5WxmrXwa4lmgJc2oYcE1GikrLYOuG5FwE5b8Y9qq_uqh40QFrtORDD62Zcmkf3yZdyIWUKEoX8eJH0nMaQ-Fj3VrVXWLT_IzrUvDCcpORAHyc-L0hh8NWmTGdhkt_2jbVk73KhqXETxsEzM39yzCMJbhyyJDPyVOSDr8UZTtZ5iyM8FPkBU9L2ew | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
71 | 0 | Serious question: Is MAT stock a buy? | null | 16 comments | 2023-07-21 | Hi Everyone,I will admit I do not normally think about toy stocks, but I am wondering if people think Mattel stock is a buy right now as the Barbie hype wave takes over.I just can't help but think that in the short/medium term this will help the companies bottom line tremendously through residuals from the movie, licensing of merchandise and of course actual Barbie sales, especially if this turns into something that Mattel monetizes in the form of multiple films.Thanks in advance and I look forward to hearing your opinions. | 2023-07-24 |
72 | 1 | (7/21) Friday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News | null | 1 comment | 2023-07-21 | Good Friday morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the final trading day of the week. Here are your pre-market movers & news on this Friday, July the 21st, 2023-Stock futures are higher after Dow registers longest winning streak since 2017: Live updatesStock futures were higher Friday as traders assessed the latest corporate earnings results, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to stretch its winning streak to 10 sessions.Futures tied to the Dow added 32 points, up 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures ticked up 0.3%.Transportation companies CSX and Knight-Swift fell 5% each in the premarket after reporting earnings that underwhelmed Wall Street analysts.Corporate earnings have been mixed thus far. Seventy-three percent of S&P 500 companies that have already reported exceeding analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet data. However, that beat rate is below a three-year average of 80%, according to The Earnings Scout.Wall Street is coming off an uneven session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost around 0.7% and 2%, respectively. The Dow was the outlier of the three, adding nearly 164 points, or about 0.5%, for a nine-day rally — its longest since 2017 — and its highest close since March 2022.“The mixed broader indices are really reflective of the mixed earnings and economic data that’s come out,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments. “Beyond Dow components, we’re seeing — across industries — more selling pressure based on these earnings results.”The Dow and S&P 500 are on pace to finish the week up about 2.1% and 0.7%, while the Nasdaq is poised to end 0.4% lower with just Friday’s session remaining.STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)TODAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)NEXT WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:(N/A.)(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)(NONE.)EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)(NONE.)YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #3!)(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #4!)THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:(source: cnbc.com)(TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.) — (TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.).STOCK SYMBOL: (TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.)CLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)DISCUSS!What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?I hope you all have an excellent final trading day of this week ahead today on this Friday, July 21st, 2023! :) | 2023-07-24 |
73 | 5 | Is there something we’re all missing about Zoom and Roku stock?? | null | 22 comments | 2023-07-20 | I didn’t care that Cathy Wood is pumping Zoom (ZM) and Roku, until the Motley Fool also recommended Zoom and Roku. Is there something I’m missing? Are these screaming buys this far below ATHs?The motley fool recommended ZM twice pre-pandemic. I’m not sure if there’s some bullish thesis I’m missing, or if Zoom will be a great investment because everyone hates the stock at the moment | 2023-07-24 |
74 | 16 | Where do congressmen post their trades? | null | 16 comments | 2023-07-20 | I know there are websites like unusual whale and others that show them to you, but where are they getting their information from? I see that the STOCK act makes them post it to their websites but I can’t find anything on there. | 2023-07-24 |
75 | 10 | Are you concerned about the inverted yield curve (10Y-3M) ? | null | 55 comments | 2023-07-20 | Chart for reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3MAs many of you know, this yield curve is considered a "recession indicator" and has a lot of economic research to back it up. You can look at the chart to see that is has a high success rate. The theory behind is that once the curve has been inverted for a few months, a recession is likely within the next 18 months.As an investor, are you reacting to this chart to change your strategy? | 2023-07-24 |
76 | 1 | Is this going to be like the March 2020 peak? | null | 57 comments | 2023-07-21 | I have about $13K, & have set up recurring daily investments of $20 each in 25 highly recommended growth stocks (For Example): NVDA, MSFT, SPY, Vanguard, Berkshire, AMZN, AAPL, META, QQQ, INTC, JPM, RTX, BYD, AMD, Google, HD, Costco, Visa.I plan on withdrawing all of the money in 2024 to buy my first car for about $20K.Is this a good strategy? Should I bump up the $20? Or is the: "soft landing" coming, & I should wait until we're months into a downtrend to increase spending?I'm trying to escape options trading.I remember buying a lot in March 2020, then bag holding forever.I'd love to hear any and all advice. | 2023-07-24 |
77 | 521 | Listened to the youtube bears, wtf do I do now... | null | 472 comments | 2023-07-19 | Posted on throwaway account.This isn't a bitchy/woe-is-me post, I take 100% responsibility for treating the stock market like a casino. I just am a) embarrassed and b) I don't even know where to go from here.So long story short basically for the last two years I've been listening to Ron Walker and Maverick of Wallstreet for news/updates. So of course this whole year while the market has been absolutely ripping I've been short. Before that I was in on the AMC squeeze but of course I never sold because treys trades and Matt said it was going to a gazillion... and now am down 65%+ on all that.I am aware of how much of an idiot I am, and no, I'm not going to take these guys advice anymore.I've watched 40K+ turn into 12-13K. I'm in my early thirties and I make a decent living, don't have a tremendous amount of debt or anything and losing that money hasn't negatively affected my life outside of just like... what the fuck have I been doing? I could've really helped out my family with all that and instead it's just gone.I mean do I just buy dividends and legitimate companies now? Do I just fucking call it good and take what I have left? Where does someone even go from here? | 2023-07-24 |
78 | 8 | Why does VXX have such an extreme beta? | null | 3 comments | 2023-07-20 | Yahoo finance has iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) listed with a 3 year beta of -58.23 and a 5 year of 6.42. How does that work? The CBOE Volatility Index it appears to be based on has a beta of around -1.2, which makes sense, but why is this one so far off the mean? Is it just a complex or unique product?Also not going to buy, just curious. | 2023-07-24 |
79 | Vote | Um eine Terrororganisation von innen zu stürzen, gehen die Agentinnen Cruz und Joe undercover. | https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=NruUzLBwZAsr16ienpPyH6HLIegKvaO5iwBJQoztszR3VZpWSH49D6AQ8xSSWrrQfwc_bEOWH5Si-OyYTtqTwSEHBrKeHLrwWrHBwY43DmmeFfxIXIe7CuU0kyW4DKxAwag4g3FBkEbrMxf8x6P-yRqKqb8J1ly3w7vK61BrDwrqxC7hvtctZs50SzF39w8sl7Uck9ygQh9-6SvFEqqfYM1EYanjDR1b3_QHt6FHwFXUujlzG3dxlsIPiJ4tPhyxZBAf3NcT6CxC_8C7b-9fJPSYntKJRQG0JauizC-H48BnrH3N1gjj6WDeoEi8PDRmub4TGpO3XQCuB3l31y-jDM4A_yAicD8DQKZDkc4JLaX0fQXLogMjJavUwFKnCxhbg4jUEQ&zp=rTL8RAfs7DH8pcf0ZswyzbC0AD6xtJvL-w7HDBOyIrru67AdLcxfptERtO1UqWsvn0H817_fFqBUdjsWQyDc0yuRPy2V43vAwuBqLozocHio5EE7BK612lLwUvqY3BDekttXGRlYbrp1ijYKTmPKhRA9nlLQMXJeZJhE-pMUTJX7SIoged45l4HLez_8J2EL | 0 comments | null | null | 2023-07-24 |
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