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900 | AR6_WGI | 634 | 16 | TCRE remains a valuable concept to assess climate policy goals and how to achieve them but given the non-reversibility of different climate metrics with CO 2 and GSAT reductions, it has limitations associated with evaluating the climate response under overshoot scenarios and CO 2 removal | medium | 1 | train |
901 | AR6_WGI | 634 | 33 | Compared with the differences between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles for the same scenario pairs (Table A6 in Tebaldi et al., 2021), the higher ERFs of the SSP scenarios contribute approximately half of the warmer CMIP6 SSP outcomes | medium | 1 | train |
902 | AR6_WGI | 635 | 18 | Surface warming would likewise initially continue under scenarios of decreasing emissions, resulting in a substantial lag between a peak in CO 2 emissions and peak warming | high | 2 | train |
903 | AR6_WGI | 636 | 7 | Among global quantities, emergence of the response to differing CO 2 emissions – representing differences between low- and high-emissions scenarios – is first expected to arise in global mean CO 2 concentrations, about 10 years after emissions pathways have started diverging | high | 2 | train |
904 | AR6_WGI | 637 | 12 | This earlier diagnosed time of emergence compared to Marotzke (2019), while using a similar statistical approach, presumably arose because of the longer-period trends (20 rather than 15 years) and the larger difference between emissions trajectories considered | medium | 1 | train |
905 | AR6_WGI | 637 | 24 | However, the response of many other climate quantities to mitigation would be largely masked by internal variability during the near term, especially on the regional scale | high | 2 | train |
906 | AR6_WGI | 637 | 25 | The mitigation benefits for these quantities would emerge only later during the 21st century | high | 2 | train |
907 | AR6_WGI | 637 | 26 | During the near term, a small fraction of the surface can show cooling under all scenarios assessed here, so near-term cooling at any given location is fully consistent with globally averaged surface warming | high | 2 | train |
908 | AR6_WGI | 638 | 8 | Hence, the potential role that CDR will play in lowering the temperature in high-emissions scenarios is limited | medium | 1 | train |
909 | AR6_WGI | 640 | 3 | The climate system response to the deployment of CDR is expected to be delayed by years (e.g., in temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent) to centuries (e.g., sea level and AMOC) | high | 2 | train |
910 | AR6_WGI | 640 | 4 | The climate response to a sudden and sustained CDR termination would depend on the amount of CDR-induced cooling prior to termination and the rate of background CO 2 emissions at the time of termination | high | 2 | train |
911 | AR6_WGI | 643 | 24 | By appropriately adjusting the amount, latitude, altitude, and timing of the aerosol injection, modelling studies suggest that SAI is conceptually able to achieve some desired combination of radiative forcing and climate response | medium | 1 | train |
912 | AR6_WGI | 644 | 13 | Relative to the high-GHG climate, it is likely that MCB would increase precipitation over tropical land due to the inhomogeneous forcing pattern of MCB over ocean and land | medium | 1 | train |
913 | AR6_WGI | 645 | 20 | For the same amount of global mean cooling, different SRM options would cause different patterns of climate change | medium | 1 | train |
914 | AR6_WGI | 646 | 28 | There is an offset of continued warming following cessation of emissions by continued CO 2 removal by natural sinks | high | 2 | train |
915 | AR6_WGI | 647 | 24 | Changes in climate at 2300 have impacts and commitments beyond this timeframe | high | 2 | train |
916 | AR6_WGI | 648 | 3 | Non-CO 2 forcing and feedbacks remain important by 2300 | high | 2 | train |
917 | AR6_WGI | 649 | 1 | GSAT differences between SSP5-3.4-overshoot and SSP1-2.6 peak during the 21st century but decline to less than about 0.25°C after 2150 | medium | 1 | train |
918 | AR6_WGI | 649 | 3 | GSAT projected for the end of the 23rd century under SSP5-8.5 (likely 6.6°C–14.1°C higher than over the period 1850–1900) overlaps with the range estimated for the Miocene Climatic Optimum (5°C–10°C higher) and Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (10°C–18°C higher), about 15 and 50 million years ago, respectively | medium | 1 | train |
919 | AR6_WGI | 655 | 11 | For SSP1-2.6, such a high-warming storyline implies warming well above rather than well below 2°C | high | 2 | train |
920 | AR6_WGI | 655 | 12 | Irrespective of scenario, high-warming storylines imply changes in many aspects of the climate system that exceed the patterns associated with the best estimate of GSAT changes by up to more than 50% | high | 2 | train |
921 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 6 | The Human Perturbation of the Carbon and Biogeochemical Cycles Global mean concentrations for well-mixed GHGs (CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O) in 2019 correspond to increases of about 47%, 156%, and 23%, respectively, above the levels in 1750 (representative of the pre-industrial era) | high | 2 | train |
922 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 7 | Current atmospheric concentrations of the three GHGs are higher than at any point in the last 800,000 years, and in 2019 reached 409.9 parts per million (ppm) of CO2, 1866.3 parts per billion (ppb) of CH4, and 332.1 ppb of N2O | very high | 3 | test |
923 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 8 | Current CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere are also unprecedented in the last 2 million years | high | 2 | train |
924 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 9 | In the past 60 million years, there have been periods in Earth’s history when CO 2 concentrations were significantly higher than at present, but multiple lines of evidence show that the rate at which CO 2 has increased in the atmosphere during 1900–2019 is at least 10 times faster than at any other time during the last 800,000 years (high confidence), and 4–5 times faster than during the last 56 million years | low | 0 | train |
925 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 12 | During the last measured decade, global average annual anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O, reached the highest levels in human history at 10.9 ± 0.9 petagrams of carbon per year (PgC yr–1, 2010–2019), 335–383 teragrams of methane per year (TgCH 4 yr–1, 2008–2017), and 4.2–11.4 teragrams of nitrogen per year (TgN yr–1, 2007–2016), respectively | high | 2 | train |
926 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 16 | The ocean and land sinks of CO 2 have continued to grow over the past six decades in response to increasing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions | high | 2 | train |
927 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 17 | Interannual and decadal variability of the regional and global ocean and land sinks indicate that these sinks are sensitive to climate conditions and therefore to climate change | high | 2 | train |
928 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 19 | However, the effects of these changes are not yet reflected in a weakening trend of the contemporary (1960–2019) ocean sink | high | 2 | train |
929 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 21 | The multi-decadal growth trend in atmospheric CH 4 is dominated by anthropogenic activities (high confidence), and the growth since 2007 is largely driven by emissions from both fossil fuels and agriculture (dominated by livestock) | medium | 1 | train |
930 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 24 | This increase is dominated by anthropogenic emissions, which have increased by 30% between the 1980s and the most recent observational decade (2007–2016) | high | 2 | train |
931 | AR6_WGI | 692 | 25 | Increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure contributed to about two-thirds of the increase during the 1980–2016 period, with the fossil fuels/industry, biomass burning, and wastewater accounting for much of the rest | high | 2 | train |
932 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 7 | This is attributed to the effect of larger surface warming in CMIP6 models, which increases ocean stratification and reduces ventilation | medium | 1 | train |
933 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 12 | Despite the wide range of model responses, uncertainty in atmospheric CO 2 by 2100 is dominated by future anthropogenic emissions rather than uncertainties related to carbon–climate feedbacks | high | 2 | train |
934 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 16 | More than half of the latest CMIP6 ESMs include nutrient limitations on the carbon cycle, but these models still project increasing tropical land carbon (medium confidence) and increasing global land carbon | high | 2 | train |
935 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 22 | Under very high emissions scenarios such as SSP5-8.5, ecosystem carbon losses due to warming lead the land to transition from a carbon sink to a source (medium confidence), while the ocean is expected to remain a sink | high | 2 | train |
936 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 24 | In scenarios with moderate net negative CO 2 emissions, and CO 2 concentrations declining during the 21st century (e.g., SSP1-2.6), the land sink transitions to a net source in decades to a few centuries after CO 2 emissions become net negative, while the ocean remains a sink | low | 0 | train |
937 | AR6_WGI | 693 | 25 | Under scenarios with large net negative CO 2 emissions and rapidly declining CO 2 concentrations (e.g., SSP5-3.4-OS (overshoot)), both land and ocean switch from a sink to a transient source during the overshoot period | medium | 1 | train |
938 | AR6_WGI | 694 | 2 | Models project that, over the 21st century, the combined feedback of 0.02–0.09 W m–2 °C–1 is comparable to the effect of a CO 2 release of 5–18 petagrams of carbon equivalent per °C (PgCeq °C–1) | low | 0 | train |
939 | AR6_WGI | 694 | 4 | The probability of crossing uncertain regional thresholds (e.g., high severity fires, forest dieback) increases with climate change | high | 2 | train |
940 | AR6_WGI | 694 | 5 | Possible abrupt changes and tipping points in biogeochemical cycles lead to additional uncertainty in 21st century GHG concentrations, but these are very likely to be smaller than the uncertainty associated with future anthropogenic emissions | high | 2 | train |
941 | AR6_WGI | 694 | 23 | The fraction of CO2 removed that remains out of the atmosphere, a measure of CDR effectiveness, decreases slightly with increasing amount of removal (medium confidence) and decreases strongly if CDR is applied at lower CO 2 concentrations | medium | 1 | test |
942 | AR6_WGI | 694 | 27 | The net effect of this asymmetry on the global surface temperature is poorly constrained due to low agreement between models | low | 0 | train |
943 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 1 | These side effects and associated Earth system feedbacks can decrease carbon uptake and/or change local and regional climate, and in turn limit the CO 2 sequestration and cooling potential of specific CDR methods | medium | 1 | train |
944 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 2 | Deployment of CDR, particularly on land, can also affect water quality and quantity, food production and biodiversity, with consequences for the achievement of related sustainable development goals | high | 2 | train |
945 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 3 | These effects are often highly dependent on local context, management regime, prior land use, and scale of deployment | high | 2 | train |
946 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 4 | A wide range of co-benefits are obtained with methods that seek to restore natural ecosystems or improve soil carbon | high | 2 | train |
947 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 5 | The biogeochemical effects of terminating CDR are expected to be small for most CDR methods | medium | 1 | train |
948 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 7 | SRM acts to cool the planet relative to unmitigated climate change, which would increase the land sink by reducing plant and soil respiration and slow the reduction of ocean carbon uptake due to warming | medium | 1 | train |
949 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 8 | SRM would not counteract or stop ocean acidification | high | 2 | train |
950 | AR6_WGI | 695 | 9 | The sudden and sustained termination of SRM would rapidly increase global warming, with the return of positive and negative effects on the carbon sinks | very high | 3 | train |
951 | AR6_WGI | 710 | 15 | Increasing global net land CO 2 sink since the 1980s is mainly driven by the fertilization effect from rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (Schimel et al., 2015; Sitch et al., 2015; Fernández-Martínez et al., 2019; O’Sullivan et al., 2019; Tagesson et al., 2020; Walker et al., 2021) | medium | 1 | train |
952 | AR6_WGI | 713 | 7 | Multiple lines of evidence suggest that WUE has increased in near proportionality to atmospheric CO 2 | high | 2 | train |
953 | AR6_WGI | 713 | 19 | Increased CO 2 concentrations alleviate the effects of water deficits on plant productivity | medium | 1 | train |
954 | AR6_WGI | 715 | 1 | In conclusion, extensive deployment of BECCS and afforestation/reforestation will require larger amounts of freshwater resources than used by the previous vegetation, altering the water cycle at regional scales | high | 2 | train |
955 | AR6_WGI | 715 | 2 | Consequences of high water consumption on downstream uses, biodiversity, and regional climate depend on prior land cover, background climate conditions, and scale of deployment | high | 2 | train |
956 | AR6_WGI | 715 | 14 | Over the industrial era (1750–2019), the total cumulative CO 2 fossil fuel and industry emissions were 445 ± 20 PgC, and the LULUCF flux (= net land-use change in Figure 5.12) was 240 ± 70 PgC | medium | 1 | train |
957 | AR6_WGI | 716 | 3 | The net export of carbon from the terrestrial domain to the open oceans is estimated to be 0.80 PgC yr–1 | medium | 1 | train |
958 | AR6_WGI | 721 | 1 | Although there is evidence that regional human activities and global warming both increase inland water CH 4 emissions (Beaulieu et al., 2019), the increase in the decadal emissions since AR5 (Ciais et al., 2013) rather reflect improvements in the estimate | medium | 1 | train |
959 | AR6_WGI | 723 | 5 | These contrasting lines of evidence suggest that OH changes may have had a small moderating influence on methane growth since 2007 | low | 0 | train |
960 | AR6_WGI | 724 | 1 | Isotopic composition observations and inventory data suggest that concurrent emissions changes from both fossil fuels and agriculture are playing roles in the resumed CH 4 growth since 2007 | high | 2 | train |
961 | AR6_WGI | 724 | 2 | Shorter-term decadal variability is predominantly driven by the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on emissions from wetlands and biomass burning (Cross-Chapter Box 5.2, Figure 2), and loss due to OH variations | medium | 1 | train |
962 | AR6_WGI | 725 | 4 | Several studies using complementary methods indicate that agricultural N 2O emissions have increased by more than 45% since the 1980s | high | 2 | train |
963 | AR6_WGI | 728 | 3 | Supported by multiple studies and extensive observational evidence (Sections 5.2.3.2–5.2.3.4 and Figure 5.17), anthropogenic emissions contributed about 40% (7.3; uncertainty range: 4.2 to 11.4 TgN yr–1) to the total N 2O source in 2007–2016 | high | 2 | train |
964 | AR6_WGI | 728 | 4 | This estimate is larger than in AR5 (WGI, 6.4.3) due to a larger estimated effect of nitrogen deposition on soil N 2O emissions and the explicit consideration of the role of anthropogenic nitrogen in determining inland water and estuary emissions.Based on bottom-up estimates, anthropogenic emissions from agricultural nitrogen use, industry and other indirect effects have increased by 1.7 (1.0 to 2.7) TgN yr–1 between the decades 1980– 1989 and 2007–2016, and are the primary cause of the increase in the total N 2O source | high | 2 | train |
965 | AR6_WGI | 729 | 12 | For North Asia, Europe, Temperate North America and West Asia, the most dominant GHG source is CO 2 | high | 2 | train |
966 | AR6_WGI | 729 | 15 | Persistent emissions of CO 2 are observed for Tropical and South America, northern Africa, and South East Asia | medium | 1 | train |
967 | AR6_WGI | 730 | 7 | Ocean warming decreases the solubility of dissolved oxygen in seawater, and it contributes to about 15% of the dissolved oxygen decrease in the oceans according to estimates based on solubility and the recent SROCC assessment | medium | 1 | train |
968 | AR6_WGI | 731 | 23 | Western Pacific coral records show depleted δ13C trends since the late 19th century that are more prominent since the mid-20th century | high | 2 | train |
969 | AR6_WGI | 731 | 24 | Overall, many of the records show a highly variable seawater pH underlaying strong imprints of internal climate variability (high confidence) and, in most instances, superimposed on a decreasing δ11B trend that is indicative of anthropogenic ocean acidification in recent decades | medium | 1 | train |
970 | AR6_WGI | 733 | 10 | Observations over past decades of basin-wide and global syntheses of ocean interior carbon show that the extent of acidification due to anthropogenic CO 2 invasion tends to diminish with depth | very high | 3 | train |
971 | AR6_WGI | 733 | 11 | The regions of deep convection such as subpolar North Atlantic and Southern Ocean present the deepest acidification detections below 2000 m | medium | 1 | train |
972 | AR6_WGI | 733 | 25 | Its rates at depths are controlled by the ventilation of the ocean interior as well as anthropogenic CO 2 uptake at the surface, thereby diminishing with depth | very high | 3 | train |
973 | AR6_WGI | 735 | 2 | It is concluded that the oxygen content of subsurface ocean is projected to transition to historically unprecedented condition with decline over the 21st century | medium | 1 | train |
974 | AR6_WGI | 735 | 7 | Projected oxygen loss in the ocean is thought to result in an ocean-climate feedback through changes in the natural emissions of GHGs | low | 0 | test |
975 | AR6_WGI | 738 | 18 | New syntheses since AR5 corroborate that the effect of elevated CO 2 on plant growth and ecosystem carbon storage is generally positive | high | 2 | train |
976 | AR6_WGI | 739 | 27 | Recent studies (Katavouta et al., 2018; Jiang et al., 2019; Arora et al., 2020; Rodgers et al., 2020) suggest with medium confidence that the decrease in the ocean CO 2 uptake ratio to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, under low to no mitigation scenarios over the 21st century, is predominantly attributable to the ocean carbon- concentration feedback through the reduction of the seawater CO 2 buffering capacity, but with contributions from physical drivers such as warming and wind stress (medium confidence) and biological drivers | low | 0 | train |
977 | AR6_WGI | 740 | 3 | Overall, there is medium confidence on three outcomes in the ocean from projected CO 2 uptake under medium to high CO 2 concentration scenarios: (i) a weakening of the buffering capacity, which impacts the airborne fraction via the reduction of the ocean CO 2 buffering capacity due to cumulative ocean CO 2 uptake, which reduces the net ocean CO 2 uptake ratio to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (Katavouta et al., 2018; Arora et al., 2020; Rodgers et al., 2020); (ii) an amplification of the seasonal cycle of CO 2 variables, which impacts both the ocean sink and ocean acidification (Hauck et al., 2015); (iii) a decrease in the aragonite and calcite saturation levels in the ocean, which negatively impacts the calcification rates of marine organisms | high | 2 | train |
978 | AR6_WGI | 741 | 7 | Other disturbances such as tree mortality will increase across several ecosystems (medium agreement) with decreased vegetation carbon | medium | 1 | train |
979 | AR6_WGI | 742 | 7 | The permafrost region was a historic carbon sink over centuries to millennia | high | 2 | train |
980 | AR6_WGI | 742 | 14 | One study inferred a multi-year net CO2 source for the tundra in Alaska (Commane et al., 2017), which is equivalent to 0.3 PgC yr–1 when scaled up to the northern permafrost region | low | 0 | test |
981 | AR6_WGI | 743 | 1 | There is robust evidence that some CH 4 emissions sources for some regions have increased over the past decades | medium | 1 | train |
982 | AR6_WGI | 743 | 14 | This suggests that large emissions of CH 4 from old carbon sources will not occur in response to future warming | medium | 1 | train |
983 | AR6_WGI | 743 | 16 | Near-surface permafrost is projected to decrease significantly under future global warming scenarios | high | 2 | train |
984 | AR6_WGI | 744 | 16 | In conclusion, thawing terrestrial permafrost will lead to carbon release under a warmer world | high | 2 | train |
985 | AR6_WGI | 749 | 19 | In summary, oceanic and terrestrial carbon sinks are projected to continue to grow with increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO 2, but the fraction of emissions taken up by land and ocean is expected to decline as the CO 2 concentration increases | high | 2 | train |
986 | AR6_WGI | 749 | 22 | Despite the wide range of model responses, uncertainty in atmospheric CO 2 by 2100 is dominated by future anthropogenic emissions rather than carbon–climate feedbacks | high | 2 | train |
987 | AR6_WGI | 753 | 19 | However, given the contemporary estimate for CH 4 from wildfires of no more than 16 TgCH 4 yr–1 (van der Werf et al., 2017; Saunois et al., 2020), this feedback is small, adding no more than 40 ppb to the atmospheric CH 4 by the end of the 21st century | medium | 1 | train |
988 | AR6_WGI | 755 | 22 | Abrupt Change/ Tipping PointKey Region(s)Probability to Occur in the 21st CenturyMaximum CO 2 or CH 4 Release in the 21st CenturyPrincipal Development Time ScaleMaximum CO 2 or CH 4 Rate of Change Over the 21st Century(Ir)reversibility Tropical forests dieback (Section 5.4.9.1.1)Amazon watershed Low<200 PgC as CO 2 (Section 5.4.9.1.1; medium confidence)Multi-decadal CO 2: <0.5 ppm yr–1Irreversible at multi-decadal scale (medium confidence) Boreal forests dieback (Sections 5.4.9.1.1, 5.4.3.2)Boreal Eurasia and North AmericaLow<27 Pg (Section 5.4.9.1.2; medium confidence)Multi-decadal Small (low confidence)Irreversible at multi-decadal scale (medium confidence) Biogenic emissions from permafrost thaw (Section 5.4.9.1.2)Pan-Arctic Highup to 240 PgC of CO 2 and up to 5300 Tg of CH 4 (Section 5.4.8.1.2; low confidence)Multi-decadalCO 2: ≤1 ppm yr–1 CH 4: ≤10 ppb yr–1Irreversible at centennial time scales | high | 2 | train |
989 | AR6_WGI | 756 | 12 | This implies an upper limit to the release of tropical land carbon of <200 PgC over the 21st century (assuming tropical warming of <4°C , and no CO 2-fertilization), which translates to dCO 2/dt <0.5 ppm yr–1.Boreal forest dieback is not expected to change the atmospheric CO 2 concentration substantially because forest loss at the south is partly compensated by: (i) temperate forest invasion into previously boreal areas; and (ii) boreal forest gain at the north (Friend et al., 2014; Kicklighter et al., 2014; Schaphoff et al., 2016) | medium | 1 | train |
990 | AR6_WGI | 757 | 8 | However, these are very likely to be small compared to the uncertainty associated with future anthropogenic emissions | high | 2 | train |
991 | AR6_WGI | 759 | 18 | Monteiro (South Africa), Jean-Baptiste Sallée (France), Piers Foster (United Kingdom), Baylor Fox-Kemper (United States of America), Helen T. Hewitt (United Kingdom), Masao Ishii (Japan), Joeri Rogelj (United Kingdom/Belgium), Kirsten Zickfeld (Canada/Germany) Context In the past 60 years, the ocean has taken up and stored 23 ± 5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions | medium | 1 | train |
992 | AR6_WGI | 760 | 10 | These processes are typically simplified into widely verified expressions that link the flux to wind stress, the solubility and the gradient across the air–sea interface | medium | 1 | train |
993 | AR6_WGI | 760 | 13 | The role of the biological carbon pump in influencing the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon into the ocean interior is assessed to be minimal during the historical period, but this may change, particularly in regional contexts, by 2100 | medium | 1 | train |
994 | AR6_WGI | 760 | 14 | Its role is important in the natural or pre- industrial carbon cycle | medium | 1 | train |
995 | AR6_WGI | 761 | 11 | In contrast, in the Southern Ocean, the future 21st century projected increase in upper ocean overturning circulation | low | 0 | train |
996 | AR6_WGI | 762 | 1 | In this way, the processes of the ocean carbon-heat nexus help understand the quasi-linear and path independence of properties of TCRE, which forms the basis for the zero emissions commitment (ZEC; Section 5.5) | medium | 1 | train |
997 | AR6_WGI | 762 | 3 | Increasing ocean warming and stratification may decrease exchanges between the surface and subsurface ocean, which could reduce the path independence of TCRE, though this effect can be partially counterbalanced regionally by increasing circulation associated with increasing winds | low | 0 | test |
998 | AR6_WGI | 775 | 15 | Whether the transition to source occurs at all, the timing of the transition and the magnitude of the CO 2 source are determined by the magnitude of the removal and the rate and amount of net CO 2 emissions prior to emissions becoming net negative | medium | 1 | train |
999 | AR6_WGI | 778 | 16 | In response to increasing risks to permanence of carbon stocks of some types of afforestation practices and the competition for land, there has been an increasing recognition that secondary forest regrowth and restoration of degraded forests and non-forest ecosystems can play a large role in carbon sequestration | high | 2 | train |
Subsets and Splits