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5,400
AR6_WGII
1,720
12
Fire will significantly increase
high
2
train
5,401
AR6_WGII
1,720
14
People are exposed to intense drought and famine
high
2
train
5,402
AR6_WGII
1,720
16
People, infrastructure and economic activities are exposed to SLR in the 3800 km of coastline
medium
1
train
5,403
AR6_WGII
1,721
10
Caatinga’s high vulnerability to climate change is further increased by the extensive conversion of native vegetation
high
2
train
5,404
AR6_WGII
1,721
11
Studies with terrestrial animals show that habitat loss increases the vulnerability of species to climate change
high
2
train
5,405
AR6_WGII
1,721
12
NES’s coral reefs have shown some resilience to bleaching, but vulnerability is intensified by the synergy between chronic heat stress caused by increased SST (Teixeira et al., 2019) and other well-documented stressors, such as coastal runoff, urban development, marine tourism, overexploitation of reef organisms and oil extraction
high
2
train
5,406
AR6_WGII
1,721
19
More than 10 million people have been impacted by the drought of 2012/2014 in the region, which was responsible for water shortage and contamination, increasing death by diarrhoea (Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015; Government of Brazil, 2020).There is growing evidence of the impacts of climate change on human health in NES, mostly linked to food and water insecurity caused by recurrent long droughts (e.g., gastroenteritis and hepatitis)
high
2
train
5,407
AR6_WGII
1,721
22
Recent studies predict strong negative impacts of climate change on NES’s agriculture
high
2
train
5,408
AR6_WGII
1,722
2
Over SES most stations have registered an increase in annual rainfall, largely attributable to changes in the warm season; this is one of few sub-regions where a robust positive trend in precipitation and significant intensification of heavy precipitation have been detected since the early 20th century
high
2
train
5,409
AR6_WGII
1,722
7
Increasing trends in mean air temperature and extreme heat and decreasing cold spells are projected
high
2
train
5,410
AR6_WGII
1,722
9
Increases in mean precipitation (high confidence), pluvial floods and river floods are projected
medium
1
train
5,411
AR6_WGII
1,722
10
Droughts in the River Plate basin will be more frequent in the medium term (2011–2040) and the distant future (2071–2100) (with respect to the 1979–2008 period), but also shorter and more severe, for the more extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5)
low
0
train
5,412
AR6_WGII
1,722
12
All coastal and oceanic climate impact drivers (relative sea level, coastal flood and erosion, marine heatwaves and ocean aridity) are expected to increase by mid-century in the RCP8.5 scenario
high
2
train
5,413
AR6_WGII
1,722
13
In the River Plate basin, urban floods have become more frequent, causing infrastructure damage and sometimes substantial mortality
high
2
train
5,414
AR6_WGII
1,722
14
A large increase in landslides and flash floods is also predicted for the Brazilian portion of SES, where they are responsible for the majority of deaths related to disasters in the country
high
2
train
5,415
AR6_WGII
1,722
17
Urban heat islands are already a reality in large cities in the region, such as Buenos Aires (high confidence) (Wong et al., 2013; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; Mettler-Grove, 2020), Rio de Janeiro (high confidence) (Ceccherini et al., 2016; Neiva et al., 2017; Geirinhas et al., 2018; Peres et al., 2018; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; de Farias et al., 2021) and São Paulo
high
2
train
5,416
AR6_WGII
1,722
25
As sea level rises as a result of global climate change, storm surge floods will become more frequent in this densely populated area, particularly in low-lying areas
high
2
train
5,417
AR6_WGII
1,723
1
Extreme events, including storm surges and coastal inundation/ flooding, cause injuries and economic/environmental losses on the urbanised coastline of Southern Brazil (States of São Paulo and Santa Catarina)
high
2
train
5,418
AR6_WGII
1,723
13
Heat islands affect ecosystems by increasing the energy consumption for cooling, the concentration of pollutants and the incidence of fires
high
2
train
5,419
AR6_WGII
1,723
15
Warming temperatures have been implicated in the emergence of dengue in temperate latitudes, increasing populations of Aedes aegypti
high
2
train
5,420
AR6_WGII
1,723
36
Cerrado savannahs are projected to be the hotspot most negatively impacted by climate change within SA, mostly though range contraction of plant species
very high
3
train
5,421
AR6_WGII
1,724
3
In particular, a significant increment in the duration and frequency of heatwaves mainly in central Chile from 1961 to 2016 has been observed (Piticar, 2018).A robust drying trend for Chile (30°S–48°S) has been recorded
medium
1
train
5,422
AR6_WGII
1,724
4
However, inconsistent trends over the region in the magnitude of precipitation extremes with both decreases and increases (Chou et al., 2014; Giorgi et al., 2014; Heidinger et al., 2018; Meseguer-Ruiz et al., 2018) (WGI AR6 Table 11.14) (Seneviratne et al., 2021) have been observed
low
0
train
5,423
AR6_WGII
1,724
8
From 1946 to 2017, the number of fires and areas burned have increased significantly in Chile
high
2
train
5,424
AR6_WGII
1,725
1
The glaciers of the southern Andes (including the SWS and SSA regions) show the highest glacier mass loss rates worldwide
high
2
train
5,425
AR6_WGII
1,725
3
Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models (Chou et al., 2014) projected warmer conditions (more than 1°C) for the entire sub-region by 2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario
medium
1
train
5,426
AR6_WGII
1,725
5
Drier conditions (medium confidence), by means of a decrease in total annual and extreme precipitation, are expected to increase for southern Chile, but inconsistent changes are expected in the sub-region
low
0
train
5,427
AR6_WGII
1,725
8
Profound social inequalities, urban expansion and inadequate city planning (e.g., drainage network) increase exposure to flooding events and landslides (high confidence) (Müller and Höfer, 2014; Rojas et al., 2017; Lara et al., 2018), heat hazards such as heatwaves
high
2
train
5,428
AR6_WGII
1,725
10
In particular, human communities living in coastal cities show a negative safety perception about the performance of the infrastructure and coastal defences to flood events
low
0
train
5,429
AR6_WGII
1,725
13
Terrestrial ecosystems dominated by exotic species (e.g., pine) with lower landscape heterogeneity and degraded soils and that are close to settlements and roads are highly vulnerable to wildfires in comparison to forests dominated by native trees
high
2
train
5,430
AR6_WGII
1,725
16
The water sector shows a very high vulnerability (high confidence) (Figure 12.7) mainly due to weak water governance focused on market aspects (e.g., inter-sectoral water transactions, setting rates, granting concessions, waiving the water right)
high
2
train
5,431
AR6_WGII
1,725
17
Potable water and adequate sanitation are available in SWS; however, water availability in Chile is unevenly distributed in rural communities
high
2
train
5,432
AR6_WGII
1,725
18
Spatial differences in water availability are enhanced by strong population growth, economic development, mining activities and the high dependence of agriculture on irrigation
high
2
train
5,433
AR6_WGII
1,725
19
Droughts in SWS are a major threat to water security
high
2
train
5,434
AR6_WGII
1,726
2
Urban and agriculture sectors are vulnerable to climate change (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Figure 12.7), increasing problems and demand for water
high
2
train
5,435
AR6_WGII
1,726
3
Important health problems (e.g., pathogenic infections, changes in vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, lower neurobehavioural performance) have been associated with agriculture, mining and thermal power production activities in SWS
high
2
train
5,436
AR6_WGII
1,726
4
Large-scale agricultural growth has increased vulnerability to climate change by disfavouring traditional agriculture, the homogenisation of the biophysical landscape and the replacement of traditional crops and native forests with exotic species like pines and eucalyptus (high confidence) (Torres et al., 2015), where farmers’ perceptions of climate change are highly dependent on educational level and access to meteorological information
low
0
test
5,437
AR6_WGII
1,726
5
Agricultural systems owned by Indigenous Peoples (i.e., Mapuche, Quechua and Aymara farmers) seem to pose a lower level of vulnerability to drought and higher response capacity than non-Indigenous farmers thanks to the use of the traditional knowledge of specific management techniques and the tendency to conserve species or varieties of crops tolerant to water scarcity
low
0
train
5,438
AR6_WGII
1,726
6
Fishery- and aquaculture- related livelihoods are vulnerable to climate and non-climate drivers (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement), such as sea surface warming and precipitation reduction (Handisyde et al., 2017; Soto et al., 2019; González et al., 2021), changes in upwelling intensity
low
0
train
5,439
AR6_WGII
1,726
8
The Chilean healthcare system has become more equitable and responsive to the population’s needs (e.g., the Bono AUGE healthcare reform programme); however, the high relative inequalities in terms of income (OECD, 2018), education level and rural–urban factors are determinants of quality of care, health system barriers and differential access to healthcare
high
2
train
5,440
AR6_WGII
1,726
9
Exposure and vulnerability to psychosocial risks in SWS show significant inequalities in times of disasters such as earthquakes according to socioeconomic, geographic and gender factors
high
2
train
5,441
AR6_WGII
1,726
10
Indigenous Peoples have the highest levels of vulnerability in Chile in terms of income, basic needs and access to services to climate change
low
0
train
5,442
AR6_WGII
1,726
12
Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation have increased the impacts of wildfires on terrestrial ecosystems
high
2
train
5,443
AR6_WGII
1,726
13
Future projections show important changes in the productivity, structure and biogeochemical cycles of SWS temperate and rainforests (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Gutiérrez et al., 2014; Correa-Araneda et al., 2020) and their fauna
low
0
train
5,444
AR6_WGII
1,726
15
Species are projected to suffer changes in their distribution, including a decrease in climatic refugia for vertebrates
low
0
test
5,445
AR6_WGII
1,726
16
Increasing temperatures have enlarged the number and areal extent of glacier lakes in the central Andes, northern Patagonia and southern Patagonia (high confidence) (Wilson et al., 2018), while decreased rainfall and rapid glacier melting have provoked changes in the environmental, biogeochemical and biological properties of central- southern and Andes Chilean lakes
low
0
train
5,446
AR6_WGII
1,726
19
Increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation regimes and an unprecedented long-term drought have decreased the annual average river streamflows that supply SWS megacities such as Santiago
high
2
train
5,447
AR6_WGII
1,727
1
Drought has affected wetlands
low
0
train
5,448
AR6_WGII
1,727
2
There is low evidence on shoreline retreat attributed to climate change (Martínez et al., 2018; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de Chile, 2019), although increasing wind intensity along the central Chilean coast has caused serious damage in coastal infrastructure and buildings (Winckler et al., 2017) and changes in seawater properties and processes
low
0
train
5,449
AR6_WGII
1,727
3
Ocean and coastal ecosystems in SWS are sensitive to upwelling intensity, which affects the abundance, diversity, physiology and survivorship of coastal species
high
2
train
5,450
AR6_WGII
1,727
4
Increasing radiation and temperatures and reduced precipitation, in conjunction with increased nutrient load, have increased HAB events, producing massive fauna mortalities
high
2
train
5,451
AR6_WGII
1,727
5
Multiple resources subjected to fisheries and aquaculture are highly vulnerable to storms, alluvial disasters, ocean warming, ocean acidification, increasing ENSO extreme events and lower oxygen availability
high
2
train
5,452
AR6_WGII
1,727
6
Ocean and coastal ecosystems, especially EEZs, will be highly impacted by climate change in the near and long term
high
2
train
5,453
AR6_WGII
1,727
9
Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation are expected to impact the agriculture sector (i.e., fruits crops and forests) across the entire sub-region, with the largest impacts in the northern and central zone
high
2
train
5,454
AR6_WGII
1,727
10
Observed impacts and future projections warn that increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation will largely impact water demand by agricultural sectors
high
2
train
5,455
AR6_WGII
1,727
13
Increasing temperature and heat extreme events in cities have increased the demand for water, damage to urban infrastructure (Monsalves- Gavilán et al., 2013) and accelerated ageing and death of trees
high
2
train
5,456
AR6_WGII
1,728
11
An increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and a decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes are projected to be likely (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Seneviratne et al., 2021); CMIP6 models project an increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation
medium
1
train
5,457
AR6_WGII
1,728
12
It is expected that an increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation, droughts and fire weather will intensify through the 21st century in SSA, but mean wind will decrease
medium
1
train
5,458
AR6_WGII
1,728
15
The observed area and the elevation changes indicate that the Echaurren Norte glacier may disappear in the coming years if negative mass balance rates prevail
medium
1
train
5,459
AR6_WGII
1,728
20
Thus, if evapotranspiration and drought stress increase as temperature increases and rainfall decreases in water-limited ecosystems, a greater exposure of ranchers to a reduction in stocking rate and, therefore, family income would be expected
medium
1
train
5,460
AR6_WGII
1,728
23
Vaca Muerta is the major region in SA, where those techniques are used to extract oil and gas, and this will lead to an exacerbation of current water scarcity issues and to competition with irrigated agriculture (Rosa and D’Odorico, 2019), which in the context of drought may exacerbate socioenvironmental conflicts
medium
1
train
5,461
AR6_WGII
1,729
13
Most calving glaciers in the southern Patagonia ice field retreated during the last century
high
2
train
5,462
AR6_WGII
1,729
21
Suitable areas for meadows (very productive areas for livestock production) will decrease by 7.85% by 2050 given predicted changes in climate
low
0
train
5,463
AR6_WGII
1,729
26
The Patagonian Steppe may suffer pronounced expansion in invasive species’ ranges under climate change
low
0
train
5,464
AR6_WGII
1,734
2
A synthesis of these impacts (Figure 12.10) indicates the following: Climate change has or will have a major impact on the observed and future decline of Andean glaciers and snow
high
2
train
5,465
AR6_WGII
1,734
6
Many aspects and assets of ocean and coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, coral reefs, saltmarshes) were identified as being strongly impacted by climate change, both for observed and future periods
high
2
train
5,466
AR6_WGII
1,734
11
Assessment of key observed and projected impacts and risks shows that in the CSA region several systems are already approaching critical thresholds under current warming levels, in particular glaciers in the Andes, coral reefs in CA
high
2
train
5,467
AR6_WGII
1,734
12
Some systems could cross these thresholds with different levels of reversibility depending on the degree of future warming, that is, glaciers in the Andes and coral reefs in CA, which will show partial but irreversible loss already under low levels of warming (RCP2.6)
high
2
train
5,468
AR6_WGII
1,736
23
In particular, the high vulnerability of large populations, infrastructure and service systems, such as health, food and energy production and supply, are important factors, along with high levels of inequality and poor governance, for creating and increasing key risks
high
2
train
5,469
AR6_WGII
1,737
1
IKLK play an important role in adaptation and are vital components of many socioecological systems, while also being threatened by climate change
high
2
train
5,470
AR6_WGII
1,737
8
Investing in actions aimed at protection, restoration and the sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems represents a good approach to maintaining critical ecosystem services and constitutes part of a common strategy for adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction in the region
high
2
train
5,471
AR6_WGII
1,738
1
Protected area in CSA are underfunded
very high
3
train
5,472
AR6_WGII
1,738
12
In their NCs, NDCs and/or NAPs, most countries identified inadequate financing and access to technology as barriers to adaptation relevant to terrestrial and freshwater socioecosystems
high
2
train
5,473
AR6_WGII
1,738
28
Poverty is a driver of climate-change risk, while the sustainable use of ecosystems fosters adaptation (Kasecker et al., 2018)
high
2
train
5,474
AR6_WGII
1,739
5
There is, therefore, great potential for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem adaptation to climate change in CSA, provided the right incentives and sociocultural protective measures are in place
high
2
train
5,475
AR6_WGII
1,739
14
Nevertheless, research on Latin American forests tend to focus on mitigation, while studies on agriculture are usually oriented towards adaptation
high
2
train
5,476
AR6_WGII
1,739
17
They increase ecosystems’ adaptive potential, reducing climate risk and delivering numerous ecosystem services and sustainable development benefits while playing an important role in climate-change mitigation
high
2
train
5,477
AR6_WGII
1,739
21
In addition to better managing and expanding protected area networks, other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), recently defined by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (Dudley et al., 2018), could also enhance ecosystem resilience
low
0
train
5,478
AR6_WGII
1,739
24
Large-scale restoration is also seen as pivotal to limiting both climate change (IPCC, 2019a) and species extinction (IPBES, 2018a)
very high
3
train
5,479
AR6_WGII
1,739
28
Projections for CSA ocean and coastal ecosystems warn about significant and negative impacts
high
2
train
5,480
AR6_WGII
1,740
11
Adaptation measures in mangrove ecosystems are mainly focused on the application of EbA strategies
high
2
train
5,481
AR6_WGII
1,740
13
The use of territorial planning tools, the promotion of sustainable resource exploitation, the adherence to certification schemes and the implementation of management instruments, such as ecosystem-based management (EbM), followed by the use of an integrated coastal zone management, coastal marine spatial planning and capacity building, ecological risk assessments, have been the main strategies used to ensure the sustainability of marine resources in fisheries across EEZs of CSA
high
2
train
5,482
AR6_WGII
1,740
16
However, some important advances are visible in Colombian Pacific areas with coral reefs (new conservation plans, research monitoring and conservation practices)
low
0
train
5,483
AR6_WGII
1,740
17
In Panama, actions taken have allowed the protection of a high number of marine areas with coral reefs, as well as the incorporation of management approaches that include several sectors such as fisheries, tourism, coral protection and coral conservation
low
0
train
5,484
AR6_WGII
1,740
18
In the case of Costa Rica, 80% of coral habitats are located inside of MPAs, multiple research coral-related activities have been performed, and several training activities have favoured the engagement of the local community in their protection against climate and non-climate hazards
low
0
train
5,485
AR6_WGII
1,740
20
In Brazil, between 75–84% of mangroves are under some level of protection which has improved the forest structures, and multiple research programmes (e.g., Mangrove Dynamics and Management, MADAM, and ‘GEF-Mangle’) have been developed
medium
1
train
5,486
AR6_WGII
1,741
1
In Colombia, research projects (e.g., Mangroves of Colombia Projects, MCP), the installation of a geographic information system for mangroves (e.g., SIGMA Sistema de Información para la Gestión de los Manglares en Colombia), surveillance monitoring plans (e.g., EGRETTA Herramientas para el Control y Vigilancia de los Manglares), and the establishment of protected areas have contributed to decrease loss of the mangrove forest
high
2
train
5,487
AR6_WGII
1,741
6
In addition, MPAs in Chile play a key role in climate-change adaptation for fisheries
medium
1
train
5,488
AR6_WGII
1,741
9
Uruguay is incorporating stakeholders in its climate- change adaptation strategies
low
0
train
5,489
AR6_WGII
1,742
3
However, the amount and type of adaptation goals differ enormously from country to country (Figure 12.12).12.5.2.4 Limits and Barriers to Adaptation in Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems Although current NAPs and many other actions and strategies focus on improving the conservation and restoration of ocean and coastal ecosystems, as well as the suitability of marine resources throughout CSA, these measures are still not able to reduce the vulnerability and sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate-change hazards
high
2
train
5,490
AR6_WGII
1,742
4
There is high confidence that sandy beach ecosystems of CSA countries have suffered significant losses of dunes as a consequence of the construction of infrastructures that have caused interruptions in the natural dynamic of beaches, reducing protection against tides, waves, extreme events or tsunamis
high
2
train
5,491
AR6_WGII
1,743
19
These include the Dry Corridor in CA, coastal areas of Peru (SWS) and northern Chile (SWS), the Bolivian- Peruvian Altiplano (NWS, SAM), the Dry Andes of Central Chile (SWS), Western Argentina and Chaco in northwestern Paraguay (SES) and Sertão in northeastern Brazil (NES)
high
2
train
5,492
AR6_WGII
1,743
20
In NWS and SWS, downstream areas are increasingly affected by decreasing and unreliable river runoff due to rapid glacier shrinkage
high
2
train
5,493
AR6_WGII
1,743
24
River fragmentation and corresponding loss of habitat connectivity due to dam constructions have been described for, for example, the NSA, SAM, NES and SES (high confidence) (Grill et al., 2015; Anderson et al., 2018a), with important implications for freshwater biota, such as fish migration
medium
1
train
5,494
AR6_WGII
1,743
25
Furthermore, examples in, for instance, NWS (Carey et al., 2012; Duarte-Abadía et al., 2015; Hommes and Boelens, 2018) and SWS (Muñoz et al., 2019b) showcase unresolved water-related conflicts between local villagers, peasant communities, hydropower operators and governmental institutions in a context of distrust and lack of water governance
high
2
train
5,495
AR6_WGII
1,743
27
Declining water quality can be observed, for example, due to intense agricultural and industrial activities in SWS, SES and SSA (medium confidence) (Mekonnen et al., 2015; Gomez et al., 2021), mining in Andean headwaters (NWS, SWS and Western SAM) and tropical lowlands (eastern SAM and NSA)
medium
1
train
5,496
AR6_WGII
1,744
1
Water scarcity risks are projected to affect a growing number of people in the near and mid-term future in view of growing water demand in most regions (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Veldkamp et al., 2017; Schoolmeester et al., 2018; Viviroli et al., 2020), expected precipitation reductions in western and northern SAM and SWS (medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) (Neukom et al., 2015; Schoolmeester et al., 2018), substantial vanishing of glacier extent in NWS, SAM and SWS (Table SM12.6; Rabatel et al., 2018; Vuille et al., 2018; Cuesta et al., 2019; Drenkhan et al., 2019) and increasing evaporation rates in CA
medium
1
train
5,497
AR6_WGII
1,744
2
Furthermore, flood risk is a serious concern (Arnell et al., 2016) and expected to increase, especially in NWS, SAM, SES and SWS in the mid- and long-term future
high
2
train
5,498
AR6_WGII
1,744
4
In Central and South America, about 26% (130 million people) of the population have no access to safe drinking water, and strong disparities prevail regarding its spatial distribution; for example, in Chile, 99% of the population have access, compared to 50% in Peru, 73% in Colombia, 52% in Nicaragua or 56% in Guatemala
high
2
test
5,499
AR6_WGII
1,744
6
The most vulnerable people belong to low- income groups in rural areas and informal settlements of large urban areas
high
2
train