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Please translate the following English into Japanese
The identity of the new king is clear, but who will really wield power is not.
新しい王が誰になるのかは明癜であっおも、誰が本圓に暩力を振るうのこずになるのかに぀いおは䞍明である。
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As when Marshal Tito was dying in a divided Yugoslavia, the King’s royal relations (who are also his political underlings) fear that the ruler’s death will unleash chaos.
分割されたナヌゎスラビアで Marshal Tito が危節であったずき同様 、 ( 圌の政治的郚䞋でもある) 王族は、支配者の死が混沌を招くこずを懞念しおいる。
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This fear comes at a time when the wider Middle East is abuzz with talk of democratic change.
䞭東呚蟺が民䞻䞻矩的倉化に揺れる今、この懞念は高たる䞀方である。
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From Egypt to Lebanon to Iran, political passions are mounting, along with a renewed optimism.
゚ゞプトからレバノン、むランにいたるたで、新生の楜芳論をもっお、政治的熱狂が高たっおいる。
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Street demonstrations, elections, and political debate in cafes and on the Internet are flowering as never before.
喫茶店やむンタヌネット䞊でのデモ、遞挙および政治に぀いおの蚎論が、か぀おないほど盛んになっおいる。
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Even the conservative states of the Arabian Peninsula are embroiled in lively disputes about women ministers, Shia representation, Islamist participation in the political process, and even the future of their ruling monarchies.
アラビア半島の保守的な州さえもが、女性の倧臣や、シヌア掟の代衚、政治過皋ぞのむスラミストの参加から珟行君䞻制の将来に぀いおの、生き生きずした論争に巻き蟌たれおいる。
Please translate English sentences into Japanese sentences
In these dynamic circumstances, Saudi Arabia stands out.
こういったダむナミックな状況䞋で、サりゞアラビアは異色の存圚である。
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Indeed, Saudi Arabia seems trapped in a state of suspended animation, its body politic sick and infirm.
事実、サりゞアラビアも人事䞍省の状態にあり、その根幹である政治も病み、衰匱しおいるように芋える。
Please translate the following English into Japanese
The country is caught between two choices: progressive reform or continuing paralysis and decay.
囜は革新的な改革か、停滞ず衰退の持続かずいう、2 ぀の遞択肢に迫られおいる。
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Divisions in the kingdom are sharper than ever, and the King’s death might deepen them further.
王囜の分断はか぀おなく悪化しおおり、王の死が分断をさらに深める可胜性がある。
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Two rival camps - the so-called reformers and the hard liners - are forming in the Al Saud, the world’s largest ruling family, with 22,000 princes and princesses.
䞖界最倧の支配䞀族であり、22,000 人の王子ず王劃を有する Al Saud 内に、2 ぀の敵察する勢力 (いわゆる改革掟ず保守掟) が圢成されおいる。
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The reformers have less authority but are the acceptable face of the Saudi dictatorship internationally.
改革掟の暩力は (保守掟に比べお) 匱いが、 囜際瀟䌚にずっお独裁制のサりゞの受け入れやすい䞀面である。
Please translate the following English into Japanese
Their new leader, King Abdullah, appears to have legitimacy because of his seniority in the family.
新王 Abdullah は䞀族の䞭でも幎長であり、劥圓性があるように思われる。
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The reformers talk about partial municipal elections, national dialogue, and the rights of women, who they hint may one day even be allowed to drive cars!
改革掟は郚分的な地方自治䜓遞挙、銖脳䌚談、女性の暩利 (い぀か車の運転を認められる可胜性もあるらしい ! ) などに぀いお議論しおいる。
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Even these limited efforts are obstructed by the hardline Wahhabi camp, which controls the security forces, the judiciary system, and the real levers of domestic power.
こういった小さな努力さえもが、防衛力、叞法機構、囜内暩力の真の発動力を手䞭に収める保守掟の Wahhabi 勢力によっお劚害されおいる。
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Indeed, Prince Naif, the Minister of the Interior and leader of the hardliners, has either silenced or imprisoned hundreds of the key Saudi reformers.
事実、内務省長官および保守掟の䞻導者である Naif 王子は、沈黙を守るか、数癟人の䞻芁なサりゞ改革者を投獄しおきた。
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One reason for the weakness of Abdullah’s faction is that he has scant support within the family, because the Al Saud center of power lies with the al Fahads - the six full brothers of the dead King Fahad, most importantly Prince Sultan, the Minister of Defense, and Prince Naif.
Abdullah 勢力の匱さの理由の 1 ぀ずしお、圌の䞀族からの支揎が乏しいこずが挙げられる。 これは、Al Saud 暩力の䞭心が、al Fahads (囜防省長官である Sultan 王子を筆頭ずする亡 Fahads 王の 6 人の盎接の兄匟、そしお Naif 王子) にあるためである。
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On the surface, the succession has proceeded as expected, with Crown Prince Abdullah becoming king now that Fahad has died.
衚面的には、Fahad が死去した暁には Abdullah 王子が王になるずいうこずで継承問題は決着しおいるように芋える。
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In spite of this, Abdullah may not be able to shape the future, because he seems doomed to lose any showdown with Naif’s forces.
しかしもし継承が予想通りに運んだずしおも、Naif の力ずの察決に敗れる運呜にあるず思われる Abdullah に、明るい未来はないであろう。 .
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Abdullah’s power base is in the National Guard, and his claim on the support of Saudi Arabia's modernizing forces.
Abdullah の暩力基盀は、自衛隊およびサりゞアラビア近代化ぞの圧力の支持ぞの非難にある。
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Both are insufficient to check Naif.
その䞡方が、Naif を止めるには䞍足である。
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A key early test of Abdullah’s kingship will be if he can succeed in freeing the hundreds of political reformers now in prison, especially three respected academics whom he encouraged to make reform proposals, only to be incarcerated by Naif.
Abdullah の王ずしおの手腕が最初に詊される重芁な点は、特に圌自身が改革案を䜜成するよう促し、Narif によっお投獄されおしたった 3 名の暩嚁ある孊者を含む、数癟人もの獄䞭にある政治改革者の解攟に成功できるか吊かである。
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Now that King Fahad is gone, old scores among his numerous brothers and half brothers, not to mention the thousands of princes in the next generation, will need to be settled.
Fahad 王が逝去した今、圌の次䞖代の数千人もの王子たちは蚀うたでもなく、盎接の兄匟や矩兄匟の叀い系図を敎理する必芁がある。
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But don’t look for hope in the new generation, which is not necessarily young or progressive.
しかし必ずしも若くも、たた革新的でもない新しい䞖代に垌望を芋出そうずすべきではない。
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Indeed, the Al Saud clan’s third and fourth generations are divided not only in political and religious affiliation, but also range in age from 20 to 90 years old.
事実、Al Saud 䞀族の第䞉、第四䞖代は政治および宗教的関係によっお分かれるだけでなく、幎霢の幅も 20 歳から 90 歳たで異なるのである。
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All await a chance to rule.
そのすべおが、支配暩を握る機䌚を埅ち望んでいる。
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So Saudi Arabia’s people confront this key question: can an authoritative ruler emerge who will reunite the country in the progressive tradition of the late King Faisal?
すなわち、サりゞアラビアの人々は、ある重芁な疑問に盎面しおいる。 Faisal 王埌期の革新的な䌝統のもずに囜家を再線できる、暩嚁ある支配者が珟れうるのだろうか。
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The sad likelihood is that, given the power of the obstructionists under Naif, a decisive and energetic king is unlikely to emerge.
悲しいこずに、Naif の䞋の劚害䞻矩者の力を鑑みれば、決定的な熱意ある王は珟れそうもない。
Please translate the following English into Japanese
The direction the country will take in the longer term can best be assessed by whom Abdullah chooses to name as the successor to Prince Sultan, Naif’s chief ally who has already been named Abdullah’s heir.
長期的に芋たこの囜の方向性は、Abdullah が、自身の跡取りずしおすでに指名されおいる Naif の䞻な協力者であるSultan 王子の継承者に、誰を指名するかによっおもっずも適切に評䟡するこずができる。
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If Abdullah (aged 83) can perhaps skip a generation and appoint a more open-minded younger figure, there may be hope.
Abdullah (83 æ­³) がたずえば䞖代を飛び越え、より開攟的な若い人物を指名できるのであれば、垌望も生たれるかもしれない。
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But Naif (age 77), his full brothers - including Sultan (age 82) - and their supporters within the Wahhabi establishment appear too entrenched to allow that to happen.
しかし Naif (77 æ­³) およびその兄匟たち (Sultan (82 æ­³) を含む) ず、Wahhabi 勢力内の圌らの支持者は、それを実珟するには頑固すぎるように思える。
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Like the geriatric successions that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union, the succession in Saudi Arabia seems to be only a step in an inexorable march toward political decay.
゜ビ゚ト連邊厩壊に先行した老人による継承同様、サりゞアラビアの継承問題も政治的衰退ぞの無垞な行進のステップでしかない。
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Russia found a young reformer in Mikhail Gorbachev too late.
ロシアが若き改革者Mikhail Gorbachev を発芋したずきには手遅れであった。
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It may also be too late for Saudi Arabia.
サりゞアラビアもすでに手遅れかもしれない。
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The Dilemma of Multiculturalism
倚文化のゞレンマ
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Many people have suddenly become very hesitant about using the term “multicultural society.” Or they hesitate to use it approvingly, as a desirable ideal that social reality should at least approximate.
倚くの人が、突然 、  倚文化瀟䌚ずいう衚珟を䜿うのをひどくためらうようになったあるいは、珟実瀟䌚が少しでも近づくべき理想の姿を指す衚珟ずしおは、肯定的に䜿わなくなったず蚀うべきだろうか
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London is certainly a multicultural metropolis. An indiscriminate attack such as a bomb in the Underground will necessarily hit people of many cultural backgrounds and beliefs.
7月のロンドンを襲ったテロリストの攻撃は、この抂念の匷みず匱点の䞡方を芋せ぀けたロンドンは間違いなく倚文化を抱える銖郜である地䞋鉄爆砎などの無差別テロでは、様々な文化背景や信仰を持぀人々が犠牲になるのは避けられない
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Sitting, or more likely standing, in the “tube” (as London’s Underground is affectionately known), one never ceases to be amazed at the ease with which Jewish mothers and Muslim men, West Indian youngsters and South Asian businessmen, and many others endure the same stressful conditions and try to lighten its impact by being civil to one another.
「チュヌブ 」  ロンドンの地䞋鉄の愛称の䞭、ほずんどの堎合座れない状態で、ナダダの母芪やムスリムの男性、西むンドの若者や南アゞアの䌚瀟員、そしお他の様々な人達が同じ状況に耐え、お互いに芪切にするこずでストレスを軜枛しようず努力しおいる姿を芋れば、誰でも安心し、さらに感心せずにはいられないだろう。
Please translate the following into Japanese
The terror attacks demonstrated not only how particular people helped each other, but also how the whole city, with all the ingredients of its human mixture, displayed a common spirit of resilience.
テロ攻撃は、結局人々がどんなに懞呜に助け合ったかずいうこずだけでなく様々な背景や文化の人々を抱える街党䜓に、共通の䞍屈の粟神が満ちおいるこずを知らしめたこずになる
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This is the positive side of a multicultural society.
これは倚文化瀟䌚のポゞティブな偎面である。
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Careful observers have always noted that it is strictly confined to the public sphere, to life in those parts of the city that are shared by all. It does not extend in quite the same way to people’s homes, let alone to their ways of life in the private sphere.
慎重な識者は、こういった偎面が芋られるのは、人々が共存する地域公共の堎に限定されるず特筆する圌等は個々の生掻習慣を貫く呚りから隔離された家庭コミュニティに぀いおは、この限りではないずしおいる
Please translate the following English into Japanese
This is one reason why London has experienced the other, darker side of the multicultural society: the veneer of multiculturalism is thin. It does not take much to turn people of one group against those of others with whom they had apparently lived in peace.
これは、ロンドンが、倚文化瀟䌚の暗い方の偎面を目の圓たりにするこずになった理由でもある倚文化䞻矩の衚面はうすっぺらで、それたで平和に共存しおきた民族グルヌプ同士のぶ぀かり合いはい぀でも起こり埗る事なのだ
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We know this because it lies at the core of the murderous environment that gripped the Balkans in the 1990’s.
この問題が1990幎代にバルカン半島を芆った残忍な玛争の栞心であったこずからも我々は確信する。
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For decades (and in some cases much longer), Serbs and Croats, – indeed, Orthodox, Catholic, and Muslim “Yugoslavs” – had lived together as neighbors. Few thought it possible that they would turn against each other in a bloodletting of such brutal enormity that it is very unlikely that Bosnia-Herzegovina can ever become a successful multicultural society.
䜕十幎もの間あるいはもっず長期に枡っお ) 、 セルビア人ずクロアチア人―いかにも、正教カトリック、そしお「ナヌゎスラブ」ムスリム―は、隣人同士ずしお共存しおきおいた圌等がお互いに歊噚を取り途方もなく残虐な血みどろの戊いを起こし、ボスニアヘルツェゎビナには氞遠に倚文化瀟䌚が実珟しないず思わせるほどの戊争になるなどず考えた人はほずんどいなかったしかしそれは珟実ずなり違った圢ではあるが珟圚の英囜で珟実になろうずしおいる
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It is important to recognize that we are not talking about the return of age-old hostilities. Ethnic and cultural conflicts today, often in the form of terrorism, are not the eruption of a supposedly extinct volcano.
ただ、これは叀来の亀戊ぞの逆戻りずいう話ではない点を認識するこずが重芁である今日の民族や文化の衝突は、しばしばテロずいう圢で露呈するが、これは「死火山」ずされるものの再噎火ではない。
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They are, on the contrary, a specifically modern phenomenon.
むしろその逆で明らかに近代的な珟象なのである
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For the terrorists themselves, such conflicts are one consequence of the unsettling effects of modernization.
テロリスト達に蚀わせればこういった戊いは近代化の過皋で起こる動乱の生み出した結果である。
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Beneath the veneer of integration into a multicultural environment, many people – especially young men with an immigrant background – are lost in the world of contradictions around them.
倚文化環境ぞの順応の衚面䞋では倚くの人特に移民出身の若者達が自分達を取り巻く矛盟した䞖界に圓惑しおいる。
Please translate the following English into Japanese
Their seamless, all-embracing world of tradition is gone, but they are not yet confident citizens of the modern, individualistic world. The question is not primarily one of employment, or even poverty, but of marginalization and alienation, of the lack of a sense of belonging.
圌等を包んでいた継ぎ目のない䌝統䞖界はすでに消えおしたい、䞀方で、近代的な個人䞻矩郜垂の垂民であるずいう自信があるわけでもない䞻芁な問題は倱業でも貧困でもなく軜芖ず疎倖、そしお垰属意識の欠劂なのである
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It is in such circumstances that the key feature of terrorism comes into play: the preaching of hate by often self-appointed leaders.
このような環境のもずでテロリズムの䞻芁な特城が育぀倚くの堎合自薊の指導者達が、人々に憎しみを怍付けおいる。
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They are not necessarily religious leaders; in the Balkans and elsewhere, they are nationalists who preach the superiority of one nationality over others.
指導者達は必ずしも宗教に基づいたものではない。 バルカンやその他の地域では䞀぀の囜家が他より優れおいるず説く囜家䞻矩者が指導者ずなった。
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But to call these hate-mongers “preachers” is fitting nonetheless, because they invariably appeal to higher values to sanctify criminal acts.
それでもなお 、 「 䌝導垫」ずいう呌び名は、憎しみを広めようずする者達に合っおいるず蚀えよう。 圌等は垞に、犯眪行為を正圓化するために、それが重芁な意味を持っおいるかのように説教するのだ
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The mobilization of criminal energies by such preachers of hate is itself a modern phenomenon.
そもそも、憎悪の䌝道垫達による犯眪勢力の動員自䜓が、近代的な珟象である。
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It is a far cry even from such doubtful claims as the self-determination of peoples defined as ethnic communities.
これを民族集団ず定矩される人々による民族自決だずする疑わしい䞻匵からもほど遠ᅵᅵ。
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Hate preachers use highly modern methods to enhance their personal power and to create havoc around them.
憎悪䌝導垫達は、自らの力を倧きく芋せ呚囲に倧混乱を起こすために、高床に近代的な方法を甚いおいる
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But countering them does not involve warfare, or even a rhetorically looser “war on terror.” Of course, part of the answer is to identify the relatively small number of people who are prepared to use their lives to destroy the lives of others without distinction or purpose.
しかし圌等ぞの察抗には、戊闘行為や、よりあいたいな衚珟の「テロずの戊い」さえ、本来含たれない。
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But the more important issue is to identify the preachers of hate and stop their murderous incitement. This is why it is so important to capture and prosecute Radovan Karadzic, who spurred on the homicidal rage of so many Bosnian Serbs.
もちろん、自らの呜を䜿い無差別・無目的に他人の呜を奪う少数掟の人々を掗い出すためには䞀理があるだが、もっず倧事な点は憎悪の䌝道垫を芋極め圌等の殺意扇動を阻止するこずだこれこそたさに、ボスニアセルビア軍の倥しい殺戮に拍車をかけたラドノァン・カラゞッチの逮捕、起蚎が倧重芁であるこずの、そしお、むスラム過激掟䌝道垫を止めなければならないこずの理由である
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Beyond this carefully targeted – and, in principle, limited – task, there remains the need to strengthen the sphere of common values and cooperation in societies that will, after all, remain multicultural. This will be difficult, and it must not be approached naively.
慎重にそしお、原則ずしおは限定的に狙いを定めた課題を達成するには瀟䌚における共通の䟡倀感ず協力姿勢の増匷が必芁ずされおいるそれが結果的に、倚文化の維持に繋がるのであるこの課題は困難で䞁寧に扱わなければならない個々の違いは無くならないし無くなる必芁もないしかし、党おの垂民がお互いに信頌しあう関係を確立するためには公共の堎における垂民の信甚や安心を育お元気づけるすべを芋぀けなければならないだろう
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The Economy of Fear
恐れが動かす経枈
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The global economy seems to be walking on water, shrugging off soaring oil prices, policy paralysis in Europe, unsustainable borrowing by the United States, and record housing prices.
䞖界経枈はたるでむ゚スの奇跡のように  、 氎䞊を歩いおいるかに芋える。 原油の䟡栌䞊昇や欧州の政策停滞、米囜の無謀な借り入れ、蚘録砎りの䜏宅䟡栌バブルなどものずもしない。
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Is it because, as G-8 leaders would have us believe, investors are in a buoyant mood, confident in their leaders’ stewardship of the global economy?
これは、閣僚の蚀う通り、投資家たちが自囜のリヌダヌが䞖界経枈を管理しおいるこずを確信しお、楜倩的な買気のムヌドになっおいるからか
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Or are we being governed by a pathology of fear, fed by events such as the recent London bombings, that is holding down long-term interest rates thereby covering up a host of simmering problems?
それずも、先日ロンドンで起きた爆砎テロなどの危険事態ぞの恐れの感芚が、䞀觊即発の問題を背埌に隠したたた、長期金利を䜎く抑えおいるのだろうか。
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The role of phenomenally low long-term (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in covering up a multitude of weaknesses in the global economy is all too apparent.
いずれにしおも、奇跡的に䜎い長期金利むンフレ調敎枈によっおも、おびただしい䞖界経枈の匱点を隠し通すのは到底無理である。
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Soaring house prices worldwide are propping up consumer demand in many countries, and, according to a recent study by the International Monetary Fund, continually falling long-term interest rates explain two-thirds or more of the global price rise.
䞖界䞭で起きおいる䜏宅バブルは倚くの囜における消費者需芁を䌞ばしおおり、囜際通貚基金(International Monetary Fund)の最近の調査によるず、䞋萜し続ける長期金利は、3分の2たたはそれ以䞊の䞖界的な物䟡䞊昇を匕き起こしおいる。
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Europe has benefited less, but its economies would be a lot worse off if long-term interest rates climbed back to their 25-year average.
ペヌロッパの埗た利益は少ないが、もし長期金利がこれたでの25幎平均たではね戻ったずしたら、欧州経枈はずっずひどい状態になっおいただろう。
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Similarly, Latin America has been booming in recent years, despite high debt burdens and a mixed record of policy reform.
同様に、ラテンアメリカの景気は、高額の借金ず混乱した政策改革にもくじけず、最近急激に良くなっおきた。
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Low long-term interest rates have kept the region’s debts manageable, while high consumer demand has helped bid up prices for the region’s commodity exports.
長期にわたる䜎金利のおかげで借金をやりくりでき、同時に消費者の需芁が高たっお地域の生産品茞出の倀段をせり䞊げるこずができたからである。
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Why hasn’t the huge spike in oil prices cut the world to its knees, as it has on so many other occasions?
では、なぜ今回、原油䟡栌の急隰は䞖界を屈埓させなかったのか
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Again, the answer is low interest rates.
他に䟋を芋ないこの珟状も、たさに䜎金利のおかげである。
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Ordinarily, a sharp rise in oil prices quickly translates into higher inflation expectations, followed by rising interest rates at all maturities.
通垞、原油䟡栌の急激な䞊昇は、むンフレ高隰ずそれに続く金利䞊昇を予枬させるが、今回は、米囜連邊準備銀行でさえ短期貞付の利率を匕き䞊げおむンフレを抑えおいる。
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But this time, even as the US Federal Reserve keeps hiking its short-term lending rate to keep inflation in line, long-term interest rates – which are far more important – have been magically declining.
さらに重芁なこずに、長期金利が魔法のように䞋がっおきおいるのだ。
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Indeed, America has been the single biggest beneficiary of this freakish low-interest-rate environment, with everyone seeming to borrow money like it is going out of style.
たしかに、䟋倖的な䜎金利から唯䞀、最倧の利益を受けるアメリカでは皆が我先にずお金を借りおいる。
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Homeowners, backed by rising house prices, are piling up debt.
自分の家を持っおいる人は、䜏宅䟡栌の䞊昇に埌抌しされお、借金を積み䞊げおいる。
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The Federal government has thrown fiscal prudence out the window.
連邊政府は財政䞊の慎重さを捚おおしたった。
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The country as a whole is absorbing an astounding three-quarters of global excess savings. But, as long as interest rates remain low and growth high, Americans can laugh at predictions that their excesses are laying the seeds of ruin.
囜党䜓で、䞖界䞭の貯蓄超過の4分の3ずいう驚きの金額を吞収しおいるが、䜎金利、高成長が維持されおいる限り、アメリカ囜民は、圌らの超過が砎産の皮を蒔いおいるずいう予蚀を笑い飛ばしおいられるだろう。
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But if low long-term interest rates are helping so many economies walk on water, why are rates so low, and will they stay that way?
䜎い長期金利がそんなに倚くの囜の経枈に奇跡を起こしおいるが、ではなぜ利率がこんなに䜎いのか、そしおこれはい぀たで続くのだろうか
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Perhaps the situation is far more fragile than many policymakers would have us believe.
実際の状況は、倚くの政治家の思惑よりずっずは危ういのかもしれない。
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Perhaps people have come to feel less , not more, secure about their long-term future, either because of fears about terrorism, a global pandemic, or a severe rash of financial crises.
人々はテロの恐怖、䞖界的な䌝染病、厳しい財政危機の倚発などをうけお長期の将来により䞍安を感じるようになっおきおいるのではないだろうか。
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I am not claiming that investors are hysterical, just that they may have become a bit more concerned about the long-term outlook. As a consequence, they are crowding into bonds and debt instruments that they view, rightly or wrongly, as safe vehicles.
私は、投資家が倚少長期の芋通しを心配し始めたからずいっお、圌らがヒステリヌになっおいるず蚀っおいるのではないが、䞀連の流れを受けお圌らは安党策ずしお―正しい芋通しかどうかは別問題ずしお―債暩や債刞商品の賌入に殺到しおいるのも事実だ。
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Other convincing explanations are lacking.
他に説埗力のある説明は芋あたらない。
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To be sure, emerging markets have been on an unusual savings spree, rebuilding reserves and improving balance sheets, but nobody expects this to go on forever.
確かに、新興垂堎は異垞な盛り䞊がりをみせ、利益準備金の建お盎しずバランスシヌトの改良を果たしたが、しかし誰もこれが氞遠に続くずは思っおいない。
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Even US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ordinarily the Oracle of Delphi on interest-rate matters, has declared the current situation “a conundrum.”
連邊準備制床理事䌚議長のアラン・グリヌンスパンでさえ、金利問題に぀いおは 「  長期金利が珟圚の状況䞋でこれだけ䜎いのは謎だ」ず発蚀した。
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History suggests that the global technology boom has yet to play itself out, with US productivity gains likely to radiate out across the world, raising growth rates everywhere.
これたでの経過を芋おも䞖界の技術進歩はただただ止たるずころを知らず、米囜の生産性の利益は䞖界䞭で成功し、至る所で成長率を䞊げおいくだろう。
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Ordinarily, rapid global growth translates into high long-term interest rates – that is, unless, deep down, people have become nervous.
通垞、急速なグロヌバル成長は長期高金利を瀺唆するものだ。 珟状はそうでなくずも、人々の心底では䞍安が枊巻いおいるずいえよう。
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Suppose investors are worried about a small chance of catastrophe over the next five to ten years. (According to experts on nuclear terrorism and pandemics, the dangers are real.)
投資家たちがこの先510幎以内に䞇䞀起こり埗る倧惚事を心配しおいるず想定しおみよう栞爆匟テロや流行病の専門家によれば、実際に危険床は高い  。
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Suppose investors believe that growth will probably continue to be strong, but that maybe – just maybe – things will fall apart. In this case, it is entirely possible to have very low interest rates co-exist with strong growth.
投資家たちは高成長率が維持されうるず信じおいるが、もしかしたら―あくたでも想定だが―状況が倉わるかもしれないずも感じおいるしたら、非垞に䜎い金利ず高成長が䞡立される可胜性は十分にある。
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True, some economists point to the halcyon days of the 1950’s and early 1960’s, when Europe, the US, and Japan prospered, but interest rates generally remained well below the rate of economic growth.
゚コノミストの䞭には1950幎代から60幎代初頭にかけおのペヌロッパ、アメリカ、そしお日本においお、経枈繁栄し぀぀も金利は党䜓的に成長率に察し䜎く抑えられおいた平穏な時代を䟋に出す人も確かにいる。
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Since that was a golden era for global growth, why worry if we are seeing the same phenomenon today?
今日起きおいる状況も䞖界的成長の黄金時代ず同じなのだから、なぜ心配する必芁があろう、ずいうのである。
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What the optimists forget is that the 1950’s and 1960’s were also a period of massive insecurity.
楜芳䞻矩者が忘れおいるのは、1950幎代ず60幎代は同時にひどく危険な時代でもあったずいうこずだ。
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Many people realistically feared the outbreak of World War III – and with good reason, according to many historians.
倚くの人が珟実的に第䞉次䞖界倧戊の勃発を予感しおいた―そしおこれは倚くの歎史家によれば圓然の感芚だったずいう。
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Back then, the specter of the Apocalypse helped keep borrowing cheap.
圓時は、黙瀺録の恐ろしい幻圱を楯に䜎い利子で借金ができた。
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Happily, investors’ darkest fears were not realized, and we can only hope for the same.
投資家たちの最もおぞたしい懞念は幞いにも杞憂に終わったが、我々の時も同じ結果になるこずを祈るばかりである。
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But if insecurity is a major undercurrent of today’s record-low interest rates, then G-8 leaders should be more cautious in their self-congratulation.
しかし、今日の蚘録的な䜎金利の根底に流れるのが䞻に危険に察する恐怖だずしたら、のリヌダヌたちは自画自賛する前に甚心しなければならないだろう。
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Investors’ collective psychology is notoriously fragile.
資本家の集団心理の壊れやすさは呚知の事実だ。
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If they ever calm down, interest rates will shoot up, and that could well bring the global economy’s simmering imbalances to a raging boil.
もし圌らがそれぞれ我に返りでもしたら、金利は急隰し、結果、ギリギリのずころで揺らいでいる䞖界経枈の䞍均衡は䞀気に厩れおしたうだろう。
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The Economy of Fear
恐れが動かす経枈
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The global economy seems to be walking on water, shrugging off soaring oil prices, policy paralysis in Europe, unsustainable borrowing by the United States, and record housing prices.
䞖界経枈はたるでむ゚スの奇跡のように  、 氎䞊を歩いおいるかに芋える。 原油の䟡栌䞊昇や欧州の政策停滞、米囜の無謀な借り入れ、蚘録砎りの䜏宅䟡栌バブルなどものずもしない。
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Is it because, as G-8 leaders would have us believe, investors are in a buoyant mood, confident in their leaders’ stewardship of the global economy?
これは、閣僚の蚀う通り、投資家たちが自囜のリヌダヌが䞖界経枈を管理しおいるこずを確信しお、楜倩的な買気のムヌドになっおいるからか
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Or are we being governed by a pathology of fear, fed by events such as the recent London bombings, that is holding down long-term interest rates thereby covering up a host of simmering problems?
それずも、先日ロンドンで起きた爆砎テロなどの危険事態ぞの恐れの感芚が、䞀觊即発の問題を背埌に隠したたた、長期金利を䜎く抑えおいるのだろうか。
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The role of phenomenally low long-term (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in covering up a multitude of weaknesses in the global economy is all too apparent.
いずれにしおも、奇跡的に䜎い長期金利むンフレ調敎枈によっおも、おびただしい䞖界経枈の匱点を隠し通すのは到底無理である。