title
stringlengths 4
2.73k
| content
stringlengths 1
843k
⌀ | category
stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Dow to fall, Amazon to hit $ 1 trillion, again, Rometty out as IBM CEO | A volatile final day of January could be ahead, as headlines surrounding the impact of the coronavirus continue to emerge and U.S. stock futures point to a lower open. Thursday was a prime example, with the Dow falling as many as 244 points and then rallying along with the other major averages to finish higher. The Dow, S & P 500 and Nasdaq remain poised to post their fifth straight month of gains, although they could also post a second straight weekly loss for the first time in four months. ( CNBC) * US Treasury yields rise after briefly sending a recession signal ( CNBC)
The World Health Organization said the fast-spreading coronavirus that's now infected more than 9,800 people across the world is a global health emergency, a rare designation that helps the international agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak. Shortly before, the U.S. confirmed the nation's first person-to-person transmission of the virus. ( CNBC) * Facebook to remove coronavirus misinformation after WHO declares global emergency ( Reuters) * State Department issues 'do not travel ' advisory for China, asks those in the country to consider leaving ( CNBC) Two patients from the same family in England have tested positive for the coronavirus. England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said today his team was `` working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had, '' in order to prevent further spread. ( CNBC)
The week ends with a busy morning of U.S. economic data, beginning with December personal income and spending at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago purchasing managers index is out at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the University of Michigan's final January consumer sentiment index is out at 10 a.m. ET. Dow components Caterpillar ( CAT), Exxon Mobil ( XOM) and Chevron ( CVX) highlight this morning's quarterly earnings report. No reports are scheduled for after the bell. ( CNBC) * Caterpillar earnings top expectations, but CEO warns about 'global economic uncertainty ' ( CNBC)
Shares of Amazon ( AMZN) climbed nearly 9% in premarket trading after smashing earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. The company's market cap surged above $ 1 trillion. Amazon first hit a $ 1 trillion market cap in September 2018 but went below that level after the stock market at the time tanked. Apple ( AAPL), Microsoft ( MSFT) and Alphabet ( GOOGL) are all currently above the trillion-dollar threshold. ( CNBC) * Jeff Bezos ' net worth jumps by over $ 12 billion after Amazon's big quarter ( CNBC)
IBM shares jumped as much as 5% in the premarket after the company said Arvind Krishna will become its 10th CEO, replacing Ginni Rometty, effective April 6. During Rometty's tenure as CEO, which began in 2012, shares of IBM fell about 26%, compared to the S & P 500's advance of 160%. ( CNBC)
Retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander said he 'll vote against any proposals for further witnesses in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, dealing a blow to Democrats. if the GOP-majority chamber votes, likely today, not to allow that new content, then the trial could quickly proceed to a final vote on whether to acquit Trump or remove him from office. ( CNBC) * House of Representatives passes two measures limiting Trump's ability to go to war with Iran ( CNBC)
Sen. Bernie Sanders has jumped into a virtual tie with former Vice President Joe Biden nationally just before the first nominating contests in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released today. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is in third, while former Mayor Mike Bloomberg leaped ahead of Mayor Pete Buttigieg for fourth. ( CNBC) * Sanders backed by 200,000-member postal workers union in 2020 primary ( CNBC)
After more than three years of tough negotiations between British and European officials, its departure from the EU is finally taking place today at 6 p.m. ET. The departure will mark the start of a `` transition period '' in which the U.K. remains a member of the single market and customs union, but begins negotiations with the EU in the hope of striking a free trade deal. ( CNBC)
One Medical parent 1Life Healthcare ( ONEM) priced its initial public offering at $ 14 per share, at the bottom of the expected range of $ 14- $ 16 per share. The health care services firm, which is not yet profitable, raised $ 245 million in gross proceeds through JPMorgan ( JPM) and Morgan Stanley ( MS).
Here's a look at the road to Sunday's Super Bowl by the numbers: After more than 4,000 plays, 1,000 points and 125 touchdowns between them, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs made it to the big game. The Chiefs have relied on a big-play passing game led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, while the Niners have had plenty of success on the defensive side. ( AP)
Dow component Visa ( V) matched Street forecast with quarterly earnings of $ 1.46 per share, but the payment network operator's revenue came in below estimates. After-the-bell Thursday, Visa also saw a 14% increase in operating expenses during the quarter as it spends more on rewards and incentives for cardholders.
Amgen ( AMGN) reported better-than-expected adjusted quarterly profit and revenue. However, the biotech company gave a weaker than expected full year forecast, due to lower interest income and its recently acquired stake in China's BeiGene, which is currently unprofitable.
Electronic Arts ( EA) reported adjusted quarterly profit of $ 2.52 per share, a penny above estimates, with revenue essentially in line. However, the videogame maker gave a weaker than expected current quarter revenue forecast, in part due to a delayed launch for its `` NBA Live '' game.
Levi Strauss ( LEVI) reported strong adjusted quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share, but the apparel maker's revenue was slightly short of forecasts. The company also gave an upbeat full year earnings forecast, as well as announcing a $ 100 million stock buyback and initiating a dividend of 8 cents per share. Levi Strauss also announced it has about half its stores in China due to the coronavirus outbreak and will take a financial hit as a result.
Marathon Petroleum ( MPC) is exploring the sale of its Speedway gasoline station division, Bloomberg reported. Marathon said last year it was seeking to spin off Speedway, which has about 4,000 locations in the U.S.
Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ) was ordered by a California judge to pay a $ 344 million fine, in a case accusing the company of deceptively marketing its surgical mesh devices. The company said it would appeal the decision, adding that it `` responsibly communicated the risks and benefits '' of the device.
Atari, the arcade game company that ushered in the gaming revolution in the 1980s, is opening eight video game-themed hotels across the U.S., including ones in Las Vegas, Denver, Chicago and Seattle. `` Atari Hotels level up hotel entertainment with fully immersive experiences for every age and gaming ability, including the latest in VR and AR ( Virtual and Augmented Reality), '' the company said. ( AP) | business |
China banks borrow from SARS playbook in preparation for market reopening | - Chinese financial firms will deploy measures used during the SARS outbreak nearly two decades ago to combat the new virus when markets reopen next week, with traders set to work shifts and sales staff restricted to online-only pitches, sources said.
Banks and brokers will also be paying double next week for the essential staff in financial capital Shanghai who will be working from Monday when markets reopen after the extended Lunar New Year holiday, they said.
China's stock and bond markets are the second-largest in the world, with equities trading in Shanghai averaging 222.9 billion yuan ( $ 32.29 billion) a day in 2019 and the interbank bond market averaging 836 billion yuan, according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the central bank, respectively.
Mainland markets were due to reopen on Friday following a week-long break but the holiday was extended to Monday by central government officials in an effort to limit the spread of the coronavirus that has so far killed more than 200.
Bank compliance rules mean that while staff such as analysts can work from home, traders must work from the office using secure internal systems.
The Shanghai government has told companies not to allow workers back before Feb. 9. Banks, however, are deemed to be providing an essential service and are required to re-open nationwide on Monday, and staff called to work must be paid double on holidays.
China Construction Bank ( CCB), the country's second largest lender, and Hang Seng Bank are among those planning to split their trading teams and alternate their working days, according to three sources.
HSBC is also considering a shift system for trading teams that have to be in the office, according to one source.
CCB and HSBC did not respond to requests for comment specifically on their trading plans. Hang Seng bank confirmed it would arrange trading shifts and would tell other staff where possible to work from home.
The People's Bank of China and the Shanghai Stock Exchange did not respond immediately to a request for comment due to the holiday.
China's new virus belongs to the same coronavirus family as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS), which also originated in China, and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.
A fund manager at the investment arm of the People's Insurance Company ( Group) of China said the virus wouldn't deter people from trading when the market opens.
`` People in the market are eager to trade, '' he said. `` It's about money. You're disadvantaged if others trade but you don't. ''
China Asset Management Co Ltd said its fund managers are required to work from the office to meet compliance rules. One member of its marketing team said the company would use online marketing rather than physical roadshows to promote new products in the near-term.
`` Even if you want to meet investors in flesh, they don't necessarily want to meet you, '' he said. ( $ 1 = 6.9040 Chinese yuan renminbi) ( Reporting by Cheng Leng, Samuel Shen and Winni Zhou; Additional reporting by Scott Murdoch; Writing by Jennifer Hughes; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman) | business |
Stocks stumble into February, one of the weakest months for market | As stocks enter the month of February, worries about the coronavirus that slammed stocks in January could continue to be a big market catalyst in the week ahead.
There are lots of other possible drivers for markets, including the January jobs report Friday and other key economic news, which comes as worries grow that the economy was already weakening even without the impact of the rapidly spreading virus. There are also dozens of earnings reports, including Alphabet, Disney and Merck.
Another focus for markets could be the Iowa Democratic presidential caucus Monday, where Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could possibly win over former Vice President Joseph Biden.
But the virus headlines could dominate, rattling stocks and continuing to drive investors into the safety of bonds. U.S. airlines Friday said they were discontinuing flights to China, as Beijing tries to contain the transmission of the virus that had infected nearly 10,000 people by Friday.
China's mainland stock markets reopen Sunday night New York time, and investors will be watching for the ripple effects from that expected decline, though traders have been actively trading Chinese market ETFs.
Stocks are limping into February after January's disappointing losses, and analysts see more selling ahead as virus headlines rattle markets. But they are divided on whether the selling will soon be capped, or the pullback will reach 5 to 10%.
The S & P 500 fell 1.8% Friday to 3,225, its worst day since October. It was down 2.1% for the week, and ended the month with a 0.2% loss, its first negative month in five.
`` February is the third worst month of the year, with an average negative decline of 0.1%, and it's been up only 53% of the time, versus an average gain for all months of 0.7%, '' said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said September and August are the worst and second weakest months for the S & P 500, going back to World War II. In general, stocks are higher 60% of the time, over all months.
On Friday, the S & P 500 was about 3.4% from its Jan. 17 high. `` I call a decline of 1% to 5% noise. The closer we get to 5%, the louder the noise, '' said Stovall, adding the S & P could decline as much as 10%.
`` I think it's a good possibility, just based on valuation—over 19.6 times forward earnings. That's the most since 2002, '' he said. `` By my metrics, we were overvalued by 9 to 12%, so we end up with a deep pullback or a shallow correction. '' A correction is when the market loses 10% from its high.
`` People have definitely been buying volatility to protect themselves from more of a leg down, '' said Patrick Kernan, CEO of Cardinal Capital Corp. `` We believe, like last Friday, when the coronavirus really started coming to a head, that people were very nervous ahead of the weekend. '' Kernan, who trades S & P options, said investors do not appear to expect a very sharp decline, but they do see more volatility and more downside for stocks.
RBC chief U.S. equity strategist Lori Calvasina said she has been expecting a 5 to 10% decline, even before the virus, but she expected it to be triggered by the primary season. After Monday's Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary is the week after, and Super Tuesday with about a dozen primaries is March 3.
`` I still think it's so early. If you were to see Sanders win, I don't thinkthe market would like it, but I wouldn't really change my view, '' she said. `` I still view it as a 5 to 10% pullback. The election has always been a central contributor to that, '' she said.
Stovall said it's still early in the process and markets could ignore the Iowa vote, even though investors see Sanders ' policies as negative for stocks. Sanders supports Medicare for all; would end oil and gas fracking, and would raise taxes for individuals and companies.
`` Only 16 percent of those who have won the Iowa primary have gone on to win the presidency, '' he said. Investors do see Sanders as having less chance against President Donald Trump than former Vice President Joseph Biden, who has lagged him in Iowa polls.
Stovall said investors will certainly be monitoring economic data in the week ahead, after fourth quarter GDP showed a slower pace for consumers and business spending remains depressed. This past week, economists were penciling in a short-lived hit to first quarter growth from the virus before it bounces back in the second quarter. But the first quarter could also see a half percentage point hit from Boeing's production shut down.
Goldman Sachs economists said the virus could shave 0.4 percentage points from first quarter growth but it would mostly recover by the second quarter.
Stovall said he's watching `` a combination of earnings and the jobs report because earnings reports could give clues as to what companies are thinking about the virus and the jobs report should give us additional clues about how strong the economy is, '' he said.
The expectations that the virus could hit global growth has sent Treasury yields sharply lower this week, and the dollar has weakened against the majors. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.52% Friday afternoon, and strategists say it could continue to move lower. Yields move opposite price.
The 10-year has also fallen below the yield on the 3-month bill, and the curve has become `` inverted. '' An inverted yield is a recession warning, and those fears are rising again due to the potential impact of the virus on China's economy and the world economy.
Monday
Monthly vehicle sales
Earnings: Alphabet, Sysco, American Financial Group, Check Point Software, ON Semiconductor, Kilroy Realty, Leggett and Platt, Cabot, Valvoline
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
10:00 a.m. Construction spending
2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey
4:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
Tuesday
Earnings: Disney, Gilead Sciences, Ford, Aflac, BP, Conoco Phillips, Royal Caribbean, Clorox, Chipotle, Ethan Allen, Seagate Technology, Microchip Tech, Snap, Owens-Illinois, Ralph Lauren, Genworth Financial, Viavi Solutions, Allstate, Sony, Cummins, Chubb
10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Wednesday
Earnings: Merck, Qualcomm, General Motors, GlaxoSmithkline, Capri Holdings, IAC/Interactive, Fox, FireEye, GrubHub, Zynga, Boston Scientific, Humana, Twilio, Peloton, Penske Auto Group, GoPro, Timken, Siemens, Yum China
8:15 a.m. ADP employment
8:30 a.m. International trade
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
Thursday
Earnings: Bristol-Myers Squibb, News Corp, Twitter, Wynn Resorts, Toyota Motor, Sanofi, Dunkin Brands, Uber, Baidu, Tyson Foods, Tapestry, Columbia Sportswear, Pinterest, VeriSign, Becton Dickinson, Carlisle Cos, Activision Blizzard Bill.com, BellRing Brands,
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs
9:15 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
7:15 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles
Friday
Earnings: AbbVie, Honda Motors, CBOE Global Markets, Avantor, Norsk Hyrdo
8:30 a.m. Employment
10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade
3:00 p.m. Consumer credit | business |
Dr. Syra Madad: 'China is doing a great job ' on coronavirus | Pathogens specialist Dr. Syra Madad on Friday praised China for the work its done to try and slow the rapid-spread of the new coronavirus.
`` I think China is doing a great job, '' said Madad, a professor and expert in public health and special pathogen preparedness and response. `` Right now, the majority of cases are in mainland China and they're doing a number of different public health measures. ''
`` So it's too early to tell, but we're hopeful this outbreak can be contained at the global scale, '' she added in a `` Squawk Box '' interview.
On Friday, Chinese officials increased their confirmed coronavirus cases to over 10,000, though many experts believe the number to be much larger. The death toll remained at 213. The virus was first discovered last month in the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province. It's since spread to at least 18 countries.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the virus a global health emergency. That announcement came shortly after the U.S. confirmed its first human-to-human transmission — the husband of the Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. There are six cases of coronavirus in the U.S.
The Chinese government has put several preventative measures in place, including issuing travel bans, extending its Lunar New Year holiday and monitoring citizens for fever and coughs. A handful of U.S.-based companies, including Starbucks and McDonald's, have also closed certain locations in China until further notice.
Countries around the world have also put measures in place. Several airlines, including British Airways, Air Seoul, Air France and American Airlines have suspended some or all flights to China. The U.S. State Department also warned against traveling to China.
Madad, featured in the Netflix docuseries `` Pandemic, '' said the deadly coronavirus is `` very concerning, '' but there's still not much known yet. `` We just need to take a step back and see what's actually happening, '' she added. `` It's not too late to stop the spreading. ''
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also gave a nod to China's preventative efforts during a news conference at the organization's Geneva headquarters on Thursday.
The decision does not mean there's a `` vote of no confidence in China '' to quell the outbreak, Tedros said. He also congratulated the Chinese government for its efforts to contain the outbreak despite the potential economic effects.
The new coronavirus has now infected more people in China than were sickened there during the SARS epidemic in 2002-2003. That outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, which also originated in China, had 8,098 cases and 774 deaths.
China, accused of withholding information in SARS epidemic, said its handling of the coronavirus will be different. Last week, the ruling Communist Party's central political and legal affairs commission warned, `` Whoever deliberately delays and conceals reports will forever be nailed to history's pillar of shame. '' | business |
New coronavirus will likely push China to step up stimulus | BEIJING — The Chinese government is beginning to pour out billions to help those affected by the new coronavirus, and analysts expect more support for the economy overall is likely to come.
A pneumonia-causing virus emerged about a month ago in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei province. The disease has since killed more than 200 people and spread overseas, prompting the World Health Organization to call the new coronavirus a global health emergency.
The virus is beginning to disrupt China's economy, although it's unclear whether the impact will extend to the full year.
`` We expect Beijing to introduce a raft of measures to provide liquidity and credit support for the economy, '' said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in an email Thursday.
`` However, we don't think these ( monetary and fiscal policy) measures would turn the economy around in the near term, as the virus outbreak may further weaken domestic demand and thus render the upcoming policy easing less effective, '' he said.
After saying little about the virus when news of it emerged in late December, Chinese authorities have stepped up their response in the last two weeks.
Wuhan and many cities in the region are under quarantine. The national rail and aviation authorities announced the respective transit operators would refund tickets, primarily those for the travel-heavy Lunar New Year that officially began on Jan. 24. Rail trips on Thursday alone was down 77.6% from the same holiday travel date last year, according to state media.
Chinese citizens were also supposed to resume work on Friday, Jan. 31, but the central government extended the holiday by three days, and several provinces have postponed the resumption of business to at least Feb. 10. The nationwide delay alone could hit January and February industrial production by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, Morgan Stanley economists said in a note Tuesday.
And in contrast to comparisons with the short-lived economic impact of SARS in 2003, Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said there are three differences in China today. Consumption plays a far bigger role in the economy than it did then, the property market is already under pressure and global demand for Chinese goods is not as strong, Hu said in a report.
Back in 2003, the Chinese economy was the sixth-largest in the world versus the second-largest today, and in a period of increasing growth. Official, although frequently questioned, figures showed China's GDP expanded by 9.1% in 2002, 10% in 2003 and 10.1% in 2004. In recent months, the rate of quarterly GDP growth has slowed, bringing China to 6.1% growth last year.
China's Ministry of Finance said that as of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, finance ministries at all levels of government have issued 27.3 billion yuan ( $ 3.94 billion) in subsidies for the prevention and control of the virus.
On Thursday, the finance ministry and National Health Commission also made public a plan for authorities to cover the personal costs incurred by those with confirmed cases of the virus, as well as subsidize medical personnel and other workers in virus prevention with 200 yuan to 300 yuan each a day.
To help alleviate what officials have called a `` severe shortage '' of medical supplies, many Chinese factories have remained open despite the Lunar New Year holiday — and receiving government support to do so.
Shandong-based face mask and protective suit manufacturer, Sanqi Medical, said in a statement to CNBC it has more than 200 employees working around the clock. They're receiving a salary of 200 yuan a day, in addition to an unspecified amount per piece, with a government subsidy of 100 yuan ( $ 14.50) per worker, per day, the company said.
`` On the fiscal policy front, we believe Beijing will be bolder on fiscal deficits and increase the transfer of central govt revenues to affected local govts, especially for supporting medical services and medical instrument production-related projects in the near term, '' Lu said.
He expects the government to raise its fiscal deficit target for the year from 2.8% of GDP in 2019, to 3% this year. Lu also forecasts Beijing will substantially raise the quota for net local government special bonds to 3.4 trillion yuan this year, up from 2.15 trillion yuan last year.
The People's Bank of China said in an online statement Tuesday it will use open market operations and other monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity, in light of the delayed resumption of the market open to Monday.
`` In our view, RRR cuts, rate cuts, various lending facilities, and open market operations all are possible options, “ Lu said.
” We believe the PBOC may also roll out some targeted credit-easing measures to help corporates and households that are likely to suffer more from the virus outbreak. ''
Earlier this week, China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also encouraged financial institutions to support businesses and households affected by the virus, with a number of measures such as lowering loan interest rates for distressed enterprises.
In the face of increased economic pressures, China will likely need to add to its debt levels, especially since Beijing has been trying to boost financing to privately run businesses. These firms account for the majority of growth in China, but often have a more difficult time than state-owned enterprises in accessing financing from the major state-owned banks.
`` The fact that coronavirus is set to hit the economy hard this quarter does not lessen Beijing's worries about funding for private firms and SMEs; in fact, the coming hit to demand will exacerbate them, '' Leland Miller, chief executive officer of China Beige Book, said in an email. The firm publishes a quarterly review of the economy based on a survey of more than 3,300 Chinese businesses.
Survey data has pointed to an increased use of less regulated `` shadow lenders '' in the last half year, and Miller expects the trend to pick up under the stress caused by the virus. | business |
Dow plummets 600 points in worst day since August as coronavirus fears grow | Stocks fell sharply on Friday, wiping out the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gain for January, as investors grew increasingly worried about the potential economic impact of China's fast-spreading coronavirus.
The Dow dropped 603.41 points, or 2.1%, to 28,256.03 in the 30-stock average's worst day since August. The S & P 500 had its worst day since October, falling 1.8% to 3,225.52. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6% to 9,150.94.
On Friday, the U.S. declared the coronavirus a public health emergency within the country. Delta, American and United suspended all flights between China and the U.S.
The virus, which was first discovered in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has now spread to at least 18 other countries and has dampened sentiment over global economic growth. China's National Health Commission confirmed on Friday that there have been 9,692 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 213 deaths.
`` There's fear going into the weekend, '' said Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital. `` The theme coming into this year was the Fed and Trump are going to bail us out of any problems, but the virus is something neither one can do anything about. That's a reason to become more fearful. ''
Las Vegas Sands, a proxy stock for the coronavirus given the company's exposure to the Chinese market, fell more than 1%. Airline stocks such as American and United dropped more than 3% each while Delta slid 2.4%. Travel stocks also got hit as the Trump administration imposed tighter travel restrictions to China.
The WHO recognized the deadly pneumonia-like virus as a global health emergency on Thursday, citing concern that the outbreak continues to spread to other countries with weaker health systems. WHO's designation was made to help the United Nations health agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak.
`` The outbreak of the coronavirus has added another headwind to the near-term outlook for stocks, '' said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. `` Viruses often become less lethal as they mutate because a virus that kills its host is also a virus that kills itself. Unfortunately, in a world of mass travel, a virus can spread across the globe before it has time to lose potency. ''
Caterpillar shares fell 3% after the industrial giant's CEO warned about `` global economic uncertainty '' in the company's latest quarterly earnings report, in part a reference to the virus. Caterpillar also issued disappointing earnings guidance for 2020.
On the positive side, Amazon shares surged 7.4% after the company posted a quarterly profit and revenue that easily beat analyst expectations. Amazon Web Services, the company's cloud business, saw stronger-than-expected revenues.
Investors are nearly halfway through the corporate earnings season. More than 70% of the 226 S & P 500 companies that have reported have beaten analyst earnings expectations, FactSet data shows.
The major averages saw an uptick in volatility this month as investors grappled with rising tensions between Iran and the U.S., trade worries with China and the recent coronavirus scare.
The S & P 500 closed marginally lower for January, snapping a four-month winning streak. The Dow also had its first monthly loss since August. The Nasdaq posted a 2% gain in January, its fifth-straight monthly advance.
The Cboe Volatility Index ( VIX), widely considered to be the best fear gauge in the market, rose to just around 19 this month from 13.78, a gain of more than 37%.
Stocks could face some seasonal headwinds next month. February has not been the market's best month historically. Data from The Stock Trader's Almanac shows the S & P 500 averages a gain of just 0.1%. Investors will also face a number of obstacles in the new month, including worries over how the U.S. presidential election shakes out. Coronavirus fears could also persist in February.
`` That's going to hurt China, '' said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT. `` For an economy that is increasingly trying to transition to the consumer, it's definitely a headwind. ''
`` When you start seeing real actions on the part of multinational companies, as well as people trying to put a number on it, it's no longer something that is not going to have an impact at all, '' Martin said.
—CNBC's Sam Meredith contributed to this report. | business |
US briefing: Trump acquittal looms, Iowa caucuses and China travel ban | Good morning, I’ m Tim Walker with today’ s essential stories.
At least one of the four wavering Republicans who might have voted to hear witnesses in Donald Trump’ s impeachment trial has said he opposes the idea, leaving the Senate poised to acquit the president as early as Friday. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee said Trump’ s misconduct did “ not meet the US constitution’ s high bar for an impeachable offense ”. The lead impeachment prosecutor, Democratic congressman Adam Schiff, condemned the GOP’ s attitude as the “ normalisation of lawlessness ”.
Iowa rally. At a campaign rally in Des Moines on Thursday night, Trump called his accusers “ deranged ” and derided the impeachment process as “ impeachment-lite ”.
Politics blog. Friday’ s blog is up and running here.
On Monday the Democrats will take their first step towards choosing a 2020 presidential nominee, as voters line up for their preferred candidates at the Iowa caucuses. Pete Buttigieg has released a final ad focusing on unity, change and “ boldness ”. But, as Daniel Strauss reports from Washington, some in the party are increasingly concerned that infighting and a funding gap with the Trump campaign could leave them trailing in the general election.
Campaign surrogates. Trump is sending several high-profile allies to Iowa on caucus day in an attempt to steal the Democrats’ thunder. Meanwhile, the Democrats are stockpiling celebrity endorsements, from Ariana Grande to George RR Martin.
The US state department has warned Americans not to travel to China, after the death toll from the coronavirus reached 213 on Friday. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency, but advised against governments imposing travel bans on China. Two people in the UK have tested positive for the disease, while a spate of anti-Chinese incidents were reported in Italy, where another two cases have been confirmed.
Dead in the street. A photograph of a man lying dead in a Wuhan street as police and medical staff in protective gear prepare to take him away has been held up as evoking the chilling atmosphere in the city where the outbreak began.
Facts vs misinformation. Science correspondent Hannah Devlin explains how best to protect yourself from a virus, while Josh Taylor reports on the dodgy cures and coronavirus conspiracy theories being disseminated online.
The UK is counting down to its exit from the EU on Friday evening with “ low-key ” celebrations, somber protests – and a new 50p coin. On a visit to London on Thursday, the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said Britain would be “ at the front of the line ” when it came to negotiating a post-Brexit trade deal. But the outgoing British ambassador to Washington has warned that any such deal with the Trump administration would involve the UK making big concessions to US farming interests and pharmaceutical firms.
Non-UK passports. More than 350,000 UK citizens have applied for passports from other EU member states since the 2016 referendum, in an attempt to retain their EU rights after Brexit.
The financial thinktank Carbon Tracker has warned that the oil industry is at risk of a global market shock, which could halve the value of fossil fuel investments, if governments keep delaying efforts to tackle the climate crisis.
The Trump administration is reportedly planning to end the US’ s moratorium on landmines, reversing an Obama-era policy in a move that the Pentagon’ s own analysis suggests will make US armed forces less safe.
The South Dakota house of representatives has voted to approve legislation that would threaten doctors with jail for giving puberty-blocking drugs to transgender children, one of a series of similar state laws that are sweeping the US.
Johnson & Johnson has been fined $ 344m by a California court for deceptively marketing transvaginal mesh to women despite being aware of the health risks it posed.
Bong Joon-ho: ‘ I’ m desperate to return to my main job’
South Korea’ s most celebrated filmmaker has been on the campaign trail for months, promoting his latest masterwork, Parasite. Now he really wants to get back to writing scripts. The Oscars are “ not an international film festival ”, he tells Steve Rose. “ They’ re very local. ”
How US workers cope without paid sick leave
The US is one of just a handful of high-income countries that do not guarantee sick leave, forcing many to stay on the job when they’ re not medically fit to do so. Miranda Bryant talks to workers going to extraordinary lengths to fit their treatment around their shifts.
Should the music business do more to protect young rappers?
A generation of rap stars, including Mac Miller and Nipsey Hussle, has been dying young due to overdoses or violent crime, after achieving huge DIY success at incredible speed. In an industry ruthlessly dedicated to discovering the hot new thing, writes Sirin Kale, pastoral care can be nonexistent.
What happened next to Notre Dame’ s bees?
Almost 10 months after the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris was ravaged by fire, the three rooftop bee colonies that miraculously survived the blaze are thriving – and still producing honey, as Kim Willsher reports.
Britain’ s ex-remainers must now hope that Brexit succeeds in some measure, writes Timothy Garton Ash. But they must also wish for Europe to thrive without the UK.
Only the most selfish, vengeful ex-remainer would wish those who voted for Brexit to suffer as a result. We are as patriotic as any Brexiteer, desiring the best for our country as well as our continent.
USA Gymnastics has offered a $ 215m settlement to the athletes who suffered sexual abuse by the former national team doctor Larry Nassar, as part of the embattled organisation’ s proposed bankruptcy plan.
As the 49ers prepare to meet the Chiefs at Super Bowl LIV in Miami on Sunday, the Guardian’ s writers make their predictions – and they’ re hoping for an instant classic.
The US morning briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes every weekday. If you’ re not already signed up, subscribe now. | general |
Coronavirus: Delta, American and United suspend mainland China flights | Delta, United and American on Friday announced they would halt service to mainland China as the rapid spread of coronavirus and government warnings against travel to the country drove down demand for flights there.
Large U.S. corporations, from Apple to Ford to Kraft Heinz, have restricted their employees ' China business travel or scaled back operations because of the outbreak
United, which has the most service to China of the U.S. airlines, said starting Feb. 6 it would suspend flights from its hubs to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu until March 28. `` Until that date, we will continue to operate select flights to help ensure our U.S. based employees, as well as customers, have options to return home. '' United said in a statement. The Chicago-based airline will continue to operate a once-daily San Francisco-Hong Kong flight. `` As always, the safety of our customers and employees is our highest priority and we will continue to monitor the situation as it develops. ''
American said Friday it would immediately suspend its service to mainland China through March 27. American flies to China from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport, but the carrier will continue to fly to Hong Kong, a spokesman said.
Delta said it would halt China service starting Feb. 6 and through April 30, but it will continue to operate the service until then to `` ensure customers looking to exit China have options to do so. ''
Earlier this week the airlines announced they would significantly cut back on China service but the escalation of the virus prompted them to suspend service. The State Department has advised against travel to China, and has permitted nonemergency employees at its diplomatic offices there to leave.
Stocks plunged Friday on concerns over the increasing impact of the coronavirus, with airlines down more sharply than the broader market. In early afternoon trading Delta was off 2.2%, United was down 3.4%. American shares were 3.3% lower.
The increasing isolation of China in the business world is echoed in the Trump administration's actions and rhetoric. The president himself has characterized the outbreak as largely a Chinese problem that is `` under control '' in the United States. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, meanwhile, said this week that the coronavirus could actually be positive for American manufacturing and jobs as companies reevaluate their supply chains.
Some airline employees say it is easier if there is an outright ban on China travel from the U.S. government because it provides greater clarity and makes planning easier compared with frequently changing schedules according to new warnings.
Dozens of carriers around the world including United, Cathay Pacific, British Airways and others have slashed or suspended service to China because of the outbreak. Delta was the first in the U.S. to suspend service altogether. Large companies spanning industries from technology to packaged food have suspended business trips to the country because of coronavirus, driving down demand for flights to China.
— CNBC's Michael Calia and Phil LeBeau contributed to this report. | business |
Facebook to remove misinformation about the coronavirus | Facebook will start removing misinformation about the coronavirus outbreak from its platforms.
In a blog post late Thursday, Facebook Head of Health Kang-Xing Jin said the firm would `` remove content with false claims or conspiracy theories that have been flagged by leading global health organizations and local health authorities that could cause harm to people who believe them. ''
`` This includes claims related to false cures or prevention methods — like drinking bleach cures the coronavirus — or claims that create confusion about health resources that are available, '' Jin said. He added that Instagram would also ban or restrict hashtags and conduct `` proactive sweeps '' to remove content spreading misinformation about the virus.
The move comes after the World Health Organization ( WHO) declared a global health emergency over the fast-spreading virus, which has infected more than 9,809 people in China, killing 213.
It's not the first tech platform to start taking action over the outbreak however, with Google and Twitter also taking steps to tackle misinformation about it. Google for instance has started displaying information from the WHO about the virus in search results while its video-sharing platform YouTube is promoting videos on it from credible sources.
Twitter meanwhile has adjusted its search prompt to lift information from `` authoritative health sources '' to the top of the page when users make searches about the coronavirus.
Facebook has gotten into hot water over how it deals with health-related disinformation in the past. The social media giant was criticized for failing to remove anti-vaccination posts last year, instead opting to lower such content in the rankings of people's feeds.
It announced a partnership with the WHO in September aimed at steering users toward accurate vaccination information from the United Nations ' health agency.
Facebook's latest move on countering misinformation comes as the company faces intense regulatory scrutiny around the world, an issue that has weighed heavily on the company's share price of late. The firm lost as much as $ 50 billion in market value this week after reporting a rise in expenses on the back of privacy and security updates.
The company said Thursday that it would continue working with independent fact-checkers to limit the spread of false coronavirus claims and instead show accurate information on its platform. It will also run educational pop-ups with `` credible information '' and share data with researchers to help them forecast the spread of the virus.
`` Not all of these steps are fully in place. It will take some time to roll them out across our platforms and step up our enforcement methods, '' said Jin. `` We will provide updates on additional steps we are taking in coordination with global and regional partners as the situation continues to evolve. '' | business |
Second Chinese movie to premiere online after virus outbreak |
The film `` Enter the Fat Dragon '' will premiere via video streaming on Saturday, makers China iQiyi Inc said on Friday, after plans for the film's premiere in cinemas were affected by the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China.
It will be the second film to debut online because of the outbreak following Huanxi Media Group's decision to premiere `` Lost in Russia '' on Bytedance's online platforms.
That decision drew protests from Chinese cinemas and film studios. | business |
Caterpillar's earnings add to industrial gloom | Caterpillar Inc ( CAT.N) on Friday forecast worse-than-expected earnings for this year after reporting lower sales across all three primary segments in the last quarter, offering further evidence of strains in the U.S. industrial economy.
The world’ s biggest construction and mining equipment maker said it expects adjusted profit in 2020 in the range of $ 8.50 to $ 10 per share on the back of a further decline in equipment sales. The forecast is lower than $ 11.06 per share last year and below the average analyst estimate of $ 10.63 per share.
The Deerfield, Illinois-based company, considered a bellwether for economic activity, has been buffeted by the prolonged U.S.-China trade war that has made its customers wary of committing to large capital expenditures, hitting its sales and forcing production cuts.
With customers hesitant to spend on new equipment, it expects as much as a $ 1.5-billion reduction in dealer inventories this year.
Its shares were last down about 1.6% at $ 133.15, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.DJI.
Caterpillar’ s earnings comes a day after the world’ s largest package delivery company, United Parcel Service Inc ( UPS.N), forecast 2020 profit below estimates, citing global trade weakness and a slump in domestic industrial production.
The tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’ s two largest economies dragged down global growth last year to the lowest level since the global financial crisis. In the United States, it drove the manufacturing economy into a recession.
The heavy equipment maker said retail demand for construction machines has softened in North America - its biggest market. It expects spending on both residential and non-residential construction to decline this year. Mining equipment sales, however, are projected to see a gradual recovery.
Sales in China were up in the quarter through December and are estimated to be flat to down 5% in 2020. But the outbreak of coronavirus could change those estimates.
The world’ s second-largest economy accounts for up to 10% of Caterpillar’ s sales. Chief Financial Officer Andrew Bonfield told Reuters that while none of the company’ s manufacturing facilities is in the worst-affected province, the outbreak has delayed the reopening of many of its facilities after the Chinese New Year by a week.
He said the company is monitoring the “ very fluid ” situation.
To dampen the impact of economic swings, Caterpillar is focusing on shortening lead times and boosting the share of its more profitable and less cyclical services and parts business in overall revenues.
It is also trying to keep a lid on costs. That helped improve operating profit margin in the last quarter despite lower sales.
The company spent $ 6.2 billion on share buybacks and dividends last year. In contrast, capital expenditure was just $ 1.1 billion, which is forecast to rise to $ 1.2 billion this year.
At the end of 2019, it had a cash balance of $ 8.3 billion.
Lower tax rates helped the company post quarterly adjusted profit of $ 2.63 per share, higher than Wall Street’ s estimates and above $ 2.55 per share last year.
Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh in Chicago and Rachit Vats in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski | business |
Safe-haven yen, Swiss franc rise on fears of virus impact | The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc gained on Friday as fears escalated about the global economic impact of the latest coronavirus outbreak in China last week.
The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low against the U.S. dollar, while China's offshore yuan struggled to find a footing in the wake of the virus outbreak.
The World Health Organization said late on Thursday that the coronavirus outbreak was a global emergency, but opposed travel restrictions and said China's actions so far would `` reverse the tide '' of its spread, somewhat reassuring markets. The United States and other countries, however, tightened travel curbs on Friday and businesses said they were facing supply problems because of the coronavirus in China.
`` The steady drumbeat of negative headlines combined with government reactions to the spread of the virus is still roiling markets a bit and it's hard for markets to find that stability, '' said Brad Bechtel, managing director at Jefferies in New York.
U.S. data on consumer spending and personal income did push the dollar a little higher against the yen and euro, as core consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures ( PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% the previous four months. That lifted the annual increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6% in December from 1.5% in November.
Investors, however, remained transfixed on the casualties from the virus and feared its impact on the global economy including businesses such as airlines and hotels. The death toll rose to 213 on Friday, all in China. The number of confirmed cases in China has risen beyond 9,800, Beijing's envoy to the United Nations in Vienna said, while some 131 cases have been reported in 23 other countries and regions.
China's offshore yuan gave up earlier gains and was last down against the dollar. The U.S. currency added 0.1% to 6.9884, although that was some way off the 7.0038 level the yuan dropped to on Thursday.
The dollar fell 0.54% against the yen to 108.36 yen, and dropped 0.3% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9668 franc.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, both sensitive to sentiment in China, fell to new multi-month lows. The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.5% to US $ 0.6464, after earlier touching a two-month low.
The Australian dollar lost 0.3% to US $ 0.6699, hitting a four-month low earlier in the session. Both have shed more than 1.5% this week and the Aussie has dropped more than 4% this month, leaving it poised for its worst month since May 2016. | business |
Coronavirus: Why it takes at least a year to make a vaccine | U.S. and international health officials are speeding work to create a vaccine for the deadly coronavirus spreading throughout Asia, which has already outpaced the 2003 SARS epidemic and killed at least 213 people in China.
Researchers will need to work fast. Since the first patient was identified in Wuhan on Dec. 31, the number of coronavirus cases has mushroomed to nearly 10,000 in mainland China alone as of Friday morning, up from roughly 800 the week before. While the new virus appears to be less deadly than the 2003 SARS outbreak, which sickened 8,098 people and killed almost 800, it is spreading significantly faster.
Hopes to get a vaccine to market are high, but doctors want expectations to be low for how quickly it can happen. Developing, testing and reviewing any potential vaccine is a long, complex and expensive endeavor that could take months or even years, global health experts say.
It took drugmakers more than a year to create a potential vaccine for the SARS epidemic, which was identified in November 2002 and killed nearly 800 people worldwide. By the time one was ready for human trials, the virus was pretty well contained. Since 2004, there have not been any known reported cases of SARS, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
U.S. health officials are fast-tracking work on a coronavirus vaccine, hoping to start human trials within the next three months.
Even so, the fastest researchers could get a vaccine for the current outbreak to market would be a year, said Peter Hotez, co-director of Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, who helped develop a vaccine candidate for SARS. And that's assuming a best-case scenario where researchers immediately find something that works, the animal trials confirm it works and there are no complications in human trials.
`` The problem is each vaccine is different. It's not like you can snap your fingers and make a treatment, '' Hotez said in a phone interview.
Before researchers can begin human trials, they must first have a firm understanding of the pathogen. Scientists are in the early stages of understanding the novel coronavirus but they do know its most important molecule is a spike protein, a multifunctional mechanism that allows the virus to enter the host, said Dr. Maria Bottazzi, co-director of Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development.
`` In the coronavirus — both the original SARS virus and Wuhan virus — it's called the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein, '' she said. `` We, therefore, [ would ] use that as our ideal vaccine candidate. ''
The next step is a preclinical toxicology study that assesses whether a drug is safe to use and is tested on animals, Bottazzi said. That usually takes three to six months depending on the study's design, she said. If the evaluation is successful, scientists will then look to begin the first human trials, also known as phase 1 clinical trials, Bottazzi said.
`` Those are usually done in normal, adult, healthy volunteers, '' she said. `` It generally doesn't take more than maybe 20 or 30 people. ''
However, even if the scientists successfully get to an early stage trial, they could run into roadblocks during the vaccine development process that could extend the timeline for deployment. Bottazzi said there will likely be regulatory or operational obstacles, such as finding enough human volunteers. Then there are, of course, economic and financial hurdles, she said.
`` What kind of business model? Who is going to pick up the cost? '' she said. `` Developing biologics can cost hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. ''
Hotez said he ran into a funding roadblock when developing a vaccine candidate for SARS in 2011. The level of investor interest had been `` remarkably little, '' he recalled, because the SARS epidemic was no longer a huge problem. This is an issue with the system, he said.
But thanks to SARS and success with the Ebola outbreak, some public health experts believe we could have a vaccine for the novel virus sooner than expected.
`` We may have a vaccine in record time, '' former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said.
Lawrence Gostin, a professor and faculty director of the O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University, said due to the advancements in science, it wouldn't surprise him to have a vaccine in hand within a few months.
`` We are light years beyond where we were in biomedical technology than during SARS, '' he said. `` The world has changed and all for the better. ''
There are currently no proven therapies for the latest outbreak, which authorities believe originated from a seafood market in China. Hong Kong researchers claimed Tuesday they have already developed a vaccine for the virus but warned that it will `` take months '' to test the vaccine on animals and another year to conduct trials on humans before it is ready.
While U.S. officials hope to start human trials on a vaccine in as little as three months, that timeline is optimistic, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services. It could take a year or more before a vaccine is ready for sale to the public, he told reporters on a call Tuesday, adding that a phase 1 trial also does not mean `` you have a vaccine that's ready for deployment. ''
The National Institutes of Health is working with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine using the current strain of the coronavirus, Fauci said.
`` It will take three months to get it into the trial, three months to get safety, immunogenicity data, '' Fauci said. `` Then you move into phase 2. What we do from that point on will be determined by what has happened with the outbreak over those months. ''
Scientists are also looking at the 2003 outbreak of SARS, Fauci said, adding that `` there could be some cross-reactivity '' between the SARS virus and the new coronavirus `` that could be utilized. ''
In addition to Moderna, at least a dozen drug companies, including Johnson & Johnson, are working to create a potential vaccine.
Dr. Paul Stoffels, J & J's chief scientific officer, told CNBC earlier this week that the drugmaker could create a vaccine in the coming months to fight against the fast-spreading virus. But he added it could take up to a year to bring it to market.
In the meantime, local authorities in China are using Gilead Sciences ' antiviral drug Remdesivir, which was tested as a possible treatment during the Ebola outbreak, U.S. health officials said on the call Tuesday. Some authorities are also using antiviral drug Kaletra, developed by drugmaker AbbVie, on a `` compassionate basis. '' | business |
Chevron asks staff to postpone all non-essential travel to China | ( Changes sourcing; Adds comment from company in paragraph 2, background)
Jan 30 ( Reuters) - U.S. oil major Chevron Corp said on Thursday it has asked its employees to postpone all `` non-essential '' business travel to China in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak.
`` Currently, no Chevron personnel or assets are affected, '' the company said in an email to Reuters. `` As a precautionary measure, we have advised employees to postpone all non-essential travel to China. ''
Chevron employees are also required to receive approval from the company's senior management for all travel to China that is `` deemed business critical '', according to a memo seen by Reuters on Thursday.
Several companies have taken similar measures as precautionary steps in response to the coronavirus outbreak in China that has so far killed more than 200 and infected more than 9,800 in the country. The World Health Organization declared a global health emergency. ( Reporting by Shariq Khan and Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Shounak Dasgupta) | business |
Mandatory US quarantine kicks in as 7th case in the country is confirmed | The coverage on this live blog has ended — but for up-to-the-minute coverage on the coronavirus, visit the live blog from CNBC's Asia-Pacific team.
All times below are in Eastern time.
Walmart on Friday said it is temporarily limiting `` non-business critical travel '' to China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
`` ( Walmart is) temporarily limiting all non-business critical travel to, from, and within mainland China, and conducting all planned meetings virtually, '' Walmart International Chief Executive Judith McKenna said.
The total number of deaths from a coronavirus epidemic in China had reached 259 by the end of Friday, an increase of 46, state broadcaster CCTV reported Friday, citing numbers from the country's National Health Commission. There were 2,102 new confirmed infections in China during the day, bringing the cumulative total to 11,791. Hubei Province's local health commission reported 45 new deaths from the outbreak on Friday, bringing the total to 249. The province confirmed 1,347 new cases of infection on Friday, with the total reaching 7,153 by the end of the day.
The Santa Clara Public Health Department said an adult man tested positive for the new coronavirus, marking at least the seventh case in the U.S. as the outbreak spreads across the globe. The patient contracted the virus in Wuhan and has been isolated at home since, county officials said at a press conference Friday.
The Trump administration is issuing a mandatory quarantine for U.S. citizens who 've visited Hubei province in the last 14 days and denying entry to foreign nationals who `` pose a risk of transmitting '' the virus in the U.S., administration officials said in declaring the coronavirus a public health emergency. `` Any US citizen returning to the United States who has been in the Hubei province in the previous 14 days will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine to ensure they're provided proper medical care and health screening, '' Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said.
The White House is expected to address the widening outbreak of the coronavirus. The briefing will involve members of President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force, which includes national security advisor Robert O'Brien, Health Secretary Alex Azar and other leading officials. The briefing comes hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quarantined 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, which has become the epicenter for the spread of the virus. Watch the live briefing here.
U.S. and international health officials are speeding work to create a vaccine for the deadly coronavirus spreading throughout Asia, which has already outpaced the 2003 SARS epidemic and killed at least 213 people in China. Hopes to get a vaccine to market are high, but doctors want to set expectations for how quickly that can happen low. Developing, testing and reviewing any potential vaccine is a long, complex and expensive endeavor that could take months or even years, global health experts say.
U.S. health officials have quarantined 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, taking the rare step of issuing a mandatory order for the first time in more than 50 years to help contain an outbreak of a new coronavirus that's spread to roughly 10,000 people across the globe. `` While we recognize this is an unprecedented action, we are facing an unprecedented public health threat, '' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a conference call with reporters Friday.
The Pentagon issued guidance to U.S. troops and civilian personnel serving abroad on how to respond to the coronavirus as a growing number of countries evacuate their citizens and diplomats from parts of China. `` We're aware of the concerns. The safety of our service members, civilian employees, and our citizens both here and abroad is of the utmost concern, '' Army Lt. Col. Dave Eastburn wrote in an emailed statement to CNBC.
Sweden's Public Health Agency said a woman tested positive for coronavirus and was being kept isolated at a hospital in southern Sweden, the country's first confirmed case. The woman visited Wuhan and experienced symptoms after her return to Sweden, the agency said.
Delta Air Lines and American Airlines are planning to suspend their already reduced service to China as the rapid spread of coronavirus hurts demand to the country for airlines around the world. Delta said its China service suspension will begin Feb. 6 and last through April 30, but it will continue to operate the service until then to `` ensure customers looking to exit China have options to do so. '' Dozens of carriers including United, Cathay Pacific, British Airways and others have slashed or suspended service to China because of the outbreak. Delta was the first in the U.S. to suspend service altogether.
Italy declared a six-month state of emergency after two Chinese tourists in the country tested positive for the coronavirus in the first cases detected in the country. The move will enable authorities to make rapid decisions if needed. Italy has already banned all flights to and from China. The two patients came from Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, and fell ill during their trip to Italy.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 9,782 in mainland China, according to Chinese authorities. The new cases in China bring the global total to nearly 10,000 cases with at least 213 deaths. British health officials confirmed the first two cases of the coronavirus in the U.K., less than 24 hours after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency.
Singapore's health ministry banned entry to all Chinese visitors and foreigners with a recent history of travel to China. The move, which effectively shuts out the island's largest group of visitors, takes effect Saturday. It is the first Southeast Asian country to implement a travel ban for China travelers to contain the outbreak. The announcement came after the U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory on Thursday for China from Level 3 to Level 4. Mongolia also said it's closing all ports of entry to and from China, giving citizens until Feb. 6 to get home.
The film `` Enter the Fat Dragon '' will premiere via video streaming on Saturday, makers China iQiyi Inc said, after plans for the film's premiere in theaters were affected by the outbreak. It will be the second film to debut online because of the outbreak following Huanxi Media Group's decision to premiere `` Lost in Russia '' on Bytedance's online platforms.
Read CNBC's coverage from our Asia-Pacific team overnight: China says coronavirus death toll hits 213 as Britain, Russia report first cases
— Reuters and CNBC's Sam Meredith and Riya Bhattacharjee contributed this report.
Correction: An earlier version reported an incorrect figure for mainland China. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, 9,782 cases were reported there, bringing the worldwide total to almost 10,000. | business |
State Department issues 'do not travel ' advisory for China | The U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory for China from Level 3 to Level 4, citing the coronavirus outbreak in that country.
`` Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China, '' the department said in its notice about the Level 4 advisory.
`` Those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means, '' it said in an online statement.
The new warning comes after the WHO on Thursday declared the outbreak a global health emergency. That rare designation helps the international agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak.
On Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also confirmed the nation's first human-to-human transmission of the virus. Illinois health officials said in a CDC press briefing that the new patient is the spouse of a Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
On Friday morning Beijing time, China's National Health Commission said the virus has killed 213 people as the number of cases rose to 9,692.
The State Department only flags a handful of countries as Level 4, its highest level `` due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. '' Around the time of its new designation for China, the State Department had already marked the following as Level 4:
To see the latest updates on the coronavirus outbreak, visit CNBC's live blog.
— CNBC's Weizhen Tan, Berkeley Lovelace Jr. and William Feuer contributed to this report. | business |
Coronavirus: Pentagon issues guidance to troops as outbreak spreads | WASHINGTON — The Pentagon issued guidance Friday to U.S. personnel serving abroad as a growing number of countries evacuate their citizens and diplomats from parts of China.
The guidance, aimed at reducing the potential threat of the coronavirus, comes a day after the State Department elevated its travel advisory for China to a Level 4 — meaning U.S. citizens should not travel there.
`` I approved a directive apprising our forces about precautions they should take, how to recognize the signs and symptoms of the virus, '' Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in a statement. `` The Department of Defense continues to work closely with our interagency partners as we monitor the situation and protect our service members and their families, which is my highest priority. ''
According to the guidance, if DoD personnel have recently returned from travel to China in the last 14 days or had close contact with someone infected with 2019-nCoV and feel sick with fever, cough, or difficulty breathing, CDC directs these individuals to:
1) seek medical care right away. Before going to a doctor's office or emergency room, call ahead and tell them about the recent travel and symptoms
2) avoid contact with others
3) not travel while sick
4) cover the mouth and nose with a tissue or sleeve ( not hands) when coughing or sneezing
5) wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds to avoid spreading the virus to others.
Esper added that U.S. military commanders in affected geographic commands will be issuing specific guidance to their forces.
The virus — which has already killed at least 213 people and infected roughly 10,000 people around the world — is emanating from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the largest of all geographic combatant commands.
`` We're aware of the concerns. The safety of our service members, civilian employees, and our citizens both here and abroad is of the utmost concern, '' Pentagon spokesman for Indo-Asia Pacific Security Affairs, U.S. Army Lt. Col. Dave Eastburn, wrote in an emailed statement to CNBC.
Earlier this week the Pentagon said it will provide housing and support for the nearly 200 U.S. citizens and diplomats evacuated from Wuhan, China — the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus — to the United States.
The government-chartered flight from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport landed at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, California, on Wednesday. Shortly after the plane landed personnel in biological hazard suits helped passengers load into buses and emergency vehicles on the tarmac.
`` Health and Human Services ( HHS) is responsible for all care of the evacuees, and DoD personnel will not be directly in contact with the evacuees and evacuees will not have access to any base location other than their assigned housing, '' Pentagon press secretary Alyssa Farah wrote in a Wednesday statement.
`` Should routine monitoring of the evacuees identify ill individuals, HHS has procedures in place to transport them to a local civilian hospital. DoD will work closely with our interagency partners and continue to monitor the situation. The Department's primary responsibility at this time is the safety of our force, our families, and our base communities, '' she added.
While the majority of confirmed coronavirus cases are in mainland China, the virus has also been identified in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Nepal, Hong Kong, Macao, Cambodia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, France, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Australia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, United States and the United Kingdom.
A Department of Defense official told CNBC that the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency, or DTRA, worked alongside Thai counterparts to detect the first coronavirus in that country on Jan. 13.
Thailand, which has the most cases of coronavirus outside of mainland China, sees routine deployments of U.S. personnel under DTRA to bolster biosurveillance, biosecurity and biosafety capabilities.
`` These investments enhance regional stability and decrease risk to U.S. interests by building our partner's capacity to detect and report disease outbreaks of especially dangerous pathogens, and enhance related biosecurity and biosafety capabilities, '' the official said.
Follow CNBC's live blog for coronavirus updates | business |
Tokyo 2020 organisers fight false rumours Olympics cancelled over coronavirus crisis | Tokyo Olympic organisers have been forced to confront rumours the coronavirus outbreak could lead to the cancellation of the Games, less than six months before they are due to open.
The rising death toll in China from the virus, which has infected 17 people in Japan – including cases of human-to-human transmission – sparked claims online that the Olympics, which will be held from 24 July to 9 August, would be cancelled.
False rumours that the 2020 Games would fall victim to the virus gained traction on social media after Deutsche Presse-Agentur, a German news outlet, ran a story about discussions between the International Olympic Committee ( IOC) and the World Health Organisation ( WHO) that concluded that the outbreak “ may have a significant impact on the Games ”.
The story, which was picked up by the Japanese-language Buzzap! portal site, generated at least 50,000 tweets under the hashtag “ Tokyo Olympics Cancelled ”.
In response, Tokyo Olympic organisers insisted they were “ not considering ” cancelling the Olympics and Paralympics. “ We will work closely with the IOC and other concerned bodies to draw any countermeasures whenever necessary, ” they said.
The IOC said it had been in contact with the WHO about the coronavirus, which has spread to more than 20 countries, prompting travel restrictions and the suspension of China services by several airlines.
“ Countermeasures against infectious diseases constitute an important part of Tokyo 2020’ s plans to host a safe and secure Games, ” the IOC said in a statement. “ Tokyo 2020 will continue to collaborate with all relevant organisations which carefully monitor any incidence of infectious diseases and will review any countermeasures. ”
Earlier this week, Tokyo’ s governor, Yuriko Koike, suggested that failure to contain the outbreak could affect the Games.
“ With only 177 days to go and our preparations accelerating, we must firmly tackle the new coronavirus to contain it, or we are going to regret it, ” she said on Wednesday during a meeting with municipal leaders. “ I will do the utmost to contain this new problem as we cooperate closely with all of you. ”
The coronavirus outbreak, which has killed 259 people – all in China – has already disrupted Olympic qualifying tournaments that were due to take place in the country this month.
The women’ s football has been relocated to Australia and women’ s basketball to Serbia, while boxing qualifiers for the Asia-Oceania region, which had been due to take place in Wuhan, have been moved to Jordan.
The world indoor track and field championships, which were to have been held in Nanjing in mid-March, were postponed for a year.
About 11,000 athletes – including a large contingent from China – are expected to compete in Tokyo. Demand for the 7.8m tickets is high, with applications exceeding supply by at least 10 times. Around 4.5m tickets have been distributed domestically via a lottery.
Several athletes skipped the Rio de Janeiro Olympics in 2016, citing fears over the Zika virus, which is transmitted through mosquito bites. However, there were no confirmed cases of Zika connected to the Rio Games.
The Associated Press contributed to this report | general |
Coronavirus: US bars foreign nationals who have recently travelled to China | The Trump administration has declared a public health emergency over the coronavirus outbreak and announced it will temporarily bar entry to the US for people traveling from China unless they are Americans or immediately related to US citizens.
“ This is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize the risk to the American public currently is low, ” said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) director, Robert R Redfield, on Friday. “ It is our goal to keep it that way. ”
The new strain of coronavirus has spread rapidly in Hubei province, where nearly 10,000 people have been infected and more than 200 people died. Officials have confirmed six cases of coronavirus in the US, and another 121 people are being monitored for infection.
Another 132 cases of coronavirus have been detected in 23 more countries, including among 12 people who had not traveled to China.
Under the measures announced on Friday, Americans returning from Hubei province will be subject to 14 days’ mandatory quarantine in an institutional setting upon their return, in order for health authorities to monitor them for the virus. Americans who have traveled to other parts of mainland China will be subject to home quarantine for 14 days.
The restrictions will apply to any foreign nationals not immediately related to Americans or US permanent residents, and come into effect on Sunday at 5pm ET.
“ There is no travel ban, ” said Joel Szabat, the assistant secretary for transportation, in response to a question from a reporter. He noted all three major air carriers had already halted flights to China in response to the epidemic.
“ We have been seeing already a significant decrease in passengers going between the US and China, ” said Szabat.
The US move comes a day after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a health emergency of international concern.
US authorities will also start funneling all flights from China to seven major airports – in New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta and Honolulu – where travelers can be screened.
“ We understand this action may seem drastic. We would rather be remembered for overreacting than underreacting, ” the CDC’ s Nancy Messonnier said.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said the measures were necessary because of the “ unknowns ” regarding the coronavirus.
Deputy secretary of state Stephen Biegun said: “ I want the Chinese people to know they have the deepest sympathies of the United States of America. ”
The move is likely to anger Beijing, which earlier on Friday had criticized a travel warning that advised against all travel to China.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said: “ The World Health Organization urged countries to avoid travel restrictions, but very soon after that, the United States did the opposite. It’ s truly mean. ”
The virus causes respiratory illness and pneumonia, for which there is little treatment. Antibiotics are ineffective for the disease because it is viral, rather than bacterial.
There are a range of symptoms, from mild to severe, associated with the virus. American officials said they are also concerned because the disease can be spread by people without symptoms.
Travel restrictions in the US were enacted as part of a presidential proclamation and declaration of a public health emergency. | general |
'Make leave not war ': what the papers say about Britain exiting the EU | The sheer variety of treatments displayed in Saturday’ s papers underlines just how divided Britain is over Brexit.
The Guardian gives its front page to a piece by Jonathan Freedland that explores the mood of the nation. “ The day we said goodbye, ” is the headline.
THE GUARDIAN: The day we said goodbye # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/3jq8n3c6dQ
The Times says that, 1,318 days ( and one hour) after voting closed in the Brexit referendum, Britain cancelled its membership of the European Union
THE TIMES: Farewell to EU # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/7yfuCMDdVp
The Sun uses the theme of Boris Johnson’ s pledge to heal a divided nation in its headline, opting for “ make leave not war ”.
Tomorrow's front page: @ BorisJohnson last night vowed to heal bitter Brexit divisions as Britain left the EU after 47 years. https: //t.co/u6H1tb8ckK pic.twitter.com/iH6J5ZnoGN
The Scottish Sun focuses on Nicola Sturgeon threatening to defy the PM’ s rejection of a second independence referendum. The headline: ‘ Get it up EU Boris! ”
Tomorrow's Scottish Sun front page pic.twitter.com/4jPqdTRQws
The Daily Express devotes pages 1 to 11 to the new chapter in Britain’ s history, and starts with an upbeat assessment. A poster image of the sun rising over a verdant valley accompanies the headline: “ Rise and shine … it’ s a glorious new Britain. ”
EXPRESS: Rise and Shine... it’ s a glorious new Britain # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/DGJBEcQTmL
The Mirror’ s front features an equally pretty British landscape at sunrise but issues a warning to Johnson. “ Now build the Britain we were promised … ” it says.
MIRROR: Now build us the Britain we were promised... # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/XHyAGTrC2q
The Telegraph looks ahead to the next stage of trade talks, saying Whitehall has been told to prepare for full customs and border checks on all European goods entering the UK. “ Johnson ramps up pressure on EU, ” is the headline.
Its Matt cartoon suggests some might use Brexit as a popular excuse to rail against all manner of rules.
TELEGRAPH: @ BorisJohnson ramps up pressure on EU # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/2Xo4gxM5s1
The Daily Mail focuses on the coronavirus after the first two domestic cases emerged, but it does offer readers a tea towel with the message: “ A new dawn for Britain ” emblazoned on the white cliffs.
MAIL: How many more UK victims of virus? # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/dW72mAt2hG
The Scotsman leads on Sturgeon’ s appeal for patience over a second Independence referendum but its front page picture is devoted to Brexit: “ Cone but not forgotten, ” is the playful headline of a road cone in EU colours placed atop a statue of the Duke of Wellington.
THE SCOTSMAN: @ NicolaSturgeon ‘ s fresh appeal for patience in battle for Indyref2 # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/31o9lCTBDE
The i’ s weekend edition asks the question on many people’ s lips: “ what next? ”
Saturday's i Weekend: What next? ( via @ Hendopolis) # TomorrowsPapersToday # BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/6OCudDXYFj
The FT captures the length of time it has taken to separate the UK from the EU. “ Britain finally cuts EU ties, ” it says.
FT WEEKEND: Britain finally cuts EU ties # TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/ldMFm26rij | general |
Electrolux shares slump after warning of coronavirus impact | Electrolux ( ELUXb.ST) warned on Friday the coronavirus outbreak in China would hit its sourcing of products and components from the country, while lingering U.S. production issues would push its North American arm into a first-quarter loss.
The cautionary near-term guidance from the home appliances maker eclipsed a smaller-than-expected fall in fourth-quarter earnings, sending its shares down 4.5% by 1014 GMT to trade around a near four-month low.
The Swedish maker of brands such as Electrolux, Frigidaire and AEG said the fast-spreading virus could have a “ material financial impact ” if its Chinese suppliers were further affected.
“ As we are sourcing significant volumes of finished products and components from China to all our business areas, we are now implementing contingency plans to mitigate a potential extended period of supply disruptions, ” CEO Jonas Samuelson said.
China is Electrolux’ single biggest sourcing hub, supplying not only components but complete products.
Samuelson said a dedicated team was working to secure alternative suppliers and shipping routes, an easier task with parts than finished goods.
In some categories, such as vacuum cleaners, air conditioners and small home appliances, China accounts for nearly the entire global supply for the industry, leaving alternatives scarce if not non-existent, Samuelson told Reuters.
“ One week is manageable, we can make up for that. But if the closures are extended, then we face a bigger challenge. ”
Along with the prospect of a loss in North America and a gloomier outlook for efficiency gains this year, the supply chain uncertainty was likely to lead to lowered profit expectations for the group, Citi said in a research note.
The rival of U.S.-based Whirlpool ( WHR.N) said adjusted operating earnings fell to 960 million Swedish crowns ( $ 101 million) from 1.67 billion, but that beat the 903 million on average expected by analysts, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
The results excluded its Professional Products business which is due to be spun out to shareholders and listed separately in the first quarter.
The company warned in December that earnings in North America would be hit to the tune of $ 70 million in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the slower-than-anticipated start-up of a new refrigerator and freezer plant in Anderson, South Carolina.
“ Given this situation, lower volumes and higher costs will impact earnings for the first quarter 2020 resulting in a loss for business area North America, ” Samuelson said.
Electrolux’ s North American arm accounted for just over a quarter of group sales in the final three months of last year.
During his years at the helm Samuelson has led a push towards greater efficiency and nimbler and more automated production to boost margins, and the December warning led to Electrolux shares losing a tenth of their value in a single day.
Against the backdrop of its lingering North American production issues, the company on Friday forecast roughly flat demand in the region this year, while seeing slightly firmer demand in both Europe and Asia.
Looking at 2020, Electrolux also said it expected little year-on-year impact from the combination of tariffs, material prices and currency swings that yielded a roughly 1.6 billion crown headwind last year.
Reporting by Niklas Pollard and Johannes Hellstrom; editing by Jason Neely and David Holmes | business |
Kenya Airways: Results Negative On Suspected Coronavirus Samples From Kenya Sent to South Africa | The Health Ministry has confirmed that a suspected coronavirus case whose samples were sent to South Africa for validation is negative.
`` The results are negative, '' Health CS Sicily Kariuki told Capital FM News on Friday morning, a day after the samples from a Kenyan student who flew in from China, were sent to South Africa for validation.
The initial tests were conducted at the National Influenza Centre, but the ministry wanted the results validated.
The Kenyan student who had been in Wuhan, the epicentre of the epidemic in China, travelled in from Guangzhou via Kenya Airways and was taken straight to the Kenyatta National Hospital ( KNH) where he was quarantined. His identity has not been made public.
By Friday morning, reports indicated that 213 people had been killed by coronavirus in China, leading to a declaration of a global public health emergency by the World Health Organisation ( WHO).
Several countries, including the UK and the US have halted flights to and from China, with Italy declaring it has blocked its airspace to China after confirming two cases late Thursday.
On Friday, the Chinese government announced it was sending charter planes to bring citizens from virus-hit Hubei province who are overseas back `` as soon as possible ''.
The foreign ministry said the move is in view of `` practical difficulties that Hubei citizens, especially those from Wuhan, have faced overseas '', said ministry of foreign affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying.
China has also advised its citizens to postpone trips abroad and cancelled overseas group tours, while several countries including Germany, Britain and the US have urged their citizens to avoid travel to China.
Copyright Capital FM. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media ( allAfrica.com)., source News Service English | business |
UPDATE 2-Deere temporarily closes facilities in China due to coronavirus | ( Adds Caterpillar announcement, background, context)
By Rajesh Kumar Singh
Jan 31 ( Reuters) - Deere & Co said on Friday it has temporarily closed its facilities in China because of the coronavirus outbreak until the company determines it appropriate to reopen.
The Moline, Illinois-based farm equipment maker has eight facilities in the world’ s second-largest economy but none are located in China’ s city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus outbreak.
It was one of the most drastic steps taken by a U.S. company in response to the outbreak. American manufacturers have been mostly following the guidelines issued by Beijing - delaying reopening of their factories after the Lunar New Year.
Deere shares closed down 1.6% at $ 158.58 on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange.
The flu-like virus has resulted in 213 deaths in China and more than 130 cases have been reported in at least 25 other countries and regions. Wuhan, where it originated, and the surrounding region are in virtual quarantine.
The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak a global emergency. The United States has decided to halt entry to the country of foreign nationals who had been to China within the 14-day incubation period, a day after issuing a “ do not travel ” advisory for the country..
Deere said it also has decided to restrict travel by its employees to and from China until a later time. Many of its employees in China will work remotely, it added.
The epidemic has cast a shadow on broader economic activity, hammering global equity markets, which on Friday posted their biggest weekly and monthly loss since August. Mounting worries about the economic impact of the virus are also driving down oil prices.
Caterpillar Inc, Deere’ s rival, said earlier it was monitoring the situation in China closely and travel to and from the country is “ business critical only. ”
While none of the heavy equipment maker’ s manufacturing facilities is in the worst-affected province, the outbreak has delayed the reopening of many of its facilities after the Lunar New Year by a week.
General Motors Co, the No. 1 U.S. automaker, also has placed a temporary restriction on travel to Wuhan, where the company has a manufacturing base as part of a joint venture with China’ s SAIC Motor.
Several companies, including Tesla Inc, Apple Inc and Starbucks Corp have warned of a possible impact from the outbreak. ( Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh Editing by Chris Reese, Diane Craft and Jonathan Oatis) | business |
Cruise companies cancel departures from Chinese ports | PARIS – Cruise operators MSC Cruises and Costa Cruises said on Thursday that they had canceled departures from Chinese ports because of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
MSC canceled three scheduled cruises on its Splendida ship, which has a capacity of 6,880 people and was due to sail on Feb. 1, 5 and 9 for Japan.
The ship is now to depart again only on Feb. 14, when it will leave from Singapore, instead of Shanghai, for the Middle East and Europe, MSC said.
MSC said in a statement that no case of infection among passengers or crew had been reported on any of its Asian winter cruises.
“ The decision to reposition the ship from Shanghai to Singapore has been taken in the best interests of the safety and wellbeing for our passengers and crew, as was the decision to cancel our next three scheduled sailings from China, ” Gianni Onorato, the CEO of Swiss-based MSC Cruises, said in the statement.
Costa meanwhile suspended nine trips from China that had been scheduled between now and Feb. 4, saying the measure was “ temporary.
Costa runs a cruise ship on which more than 6,000 tourists were under lockdown at an Italian port on Thursday after two Chinese passengers were isolated over fears they could be carrying the coronavirus.
Another cruise company, Royal Caribbean, said Thursday it was suspending three sailings through to Feb. 8 on its ship Spectrum of the Seas.
The company said it was denying boarding across its fleet to anyone who had traveled through Hubei Province in China, the epicenter of a contagion that has caused mounting global fear.
Guests who had transited through mainland China in the past 14 days would be screened before being allowed on board, Royal Caribbean said.
Carnival Cruises, based in Florida, had already suspended nine scheduled cruises between Jan. 25 and Feb. 4.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Asia gold demand slumps as coronavirus grips top consumer | Physical gold markets in major Asian hubs saw activity dwindle this week as the coronavirus epidemic took a toll on demand, especially with top consumer China remaining out of action.
Several countries tightened travel curbs because of the coronavirus in China, a day after the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency.
“ The ( gold) market is quiet. Nobody wants to go out and spend money. People are spending money on masks and alcohol. China is still closed, ” said Ronald Leung, chief dealer, Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
Several Chinese municipalities and provinces have asked companies to extend the Lunar New Year holiday by a week, to Feb. 10.
“ Demand in China has hit record low levels during the Chinese New Year in 2020 due to the coronavirus, ” said Samson Li, a Hong Kong-based precious metals analyst at Refinitiv GFMS.
Hong Kong also saw little activity, with gold being sold at anywhere from on par with the benchmark to a premium of about $ 0.40.
Global benchmark spot gold prices remained elevated, at around $ 1,562.70- $ 1,586.43 an ounce.
“ The next two to three weeks will be crucial. The number of cases and how intense the outbreak gets will affect the market, ” said Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd.
In Singapore, premiums were little changed from last week at $ 0.40- $ 0.50 an ounce.
“ We’ ve yet to see a decline in demand from local demand due to the outbreak, probably due to the lack of evidence of any community spread in Singapore, ” Silver Bullion sales manager Vincent Tie said.
India too saw tepid demand, thanks to high domestic prices and in anticipation of the federal budget to be presented on Feb. 1. India had raised import tax on gold in the last budget.
“ Demand is dull. Buyers wanted to know provisions for the bullion industry in the budget before making purchases, ” said Ashok Jain, proprietor of Mumbai-based gold wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji.
Dealers offered discounts of up to $ 13 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from $ 11 last week. The domestic price includes a 12.5% import tax and 3% sales tax.
Gold futures held near a record high of 41,293 rupees hit earlier this month.
“ At this level, jewellers don’ t want to build stocks, ” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a bullion importing bank.
Indian demand could rebound in 2020, the World Gold Council said.
In Japan, gold was sold at a $ 0.50 an ounce premium to a $ 0.50 discount.
Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan and Sumita Layek in Bengaluru, Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai; Editing by Louise Heavens | business |
Novacyt shares jump 32% on launch of coronavirus test | Novacyt stock soared 32% on Friday morning after the French cellular diagnostics company announced the launch of a new test for the coronavirus.
The test has been developed as a direct response to the recent outbreak of the new strain of coronavirus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan and has now spread worldwide, leading the World Health Organization ( WHO) to declare a global health emergency.
The death toll has now hit 213 with confirmed cases rising to 9,692, according to Chinese health officials. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that usually infect animals but can sometimes evolve and spread to humans. The new test is able to detect only the 2019 strain of the virus, reducing the risk of a false diagnosis, the company said in a statement.
The test, generated by the company's Primerdesign molecular diagnostics team, can also generate a result in less than two hours, enabling samples to be screened quickly, which the company says could help prevent the `` unnecessary '' spread of the virus.
This week, more than 6,000 tourists were held on an Italian cruise ship after a woman broke out in a fever on board, but eventually tested negative for the coronavirus after samples were taken to a hospital in Rome.
In a statement Friday, Novacyt CEO Graham Mullis said the company believed this to be the first European test to be made available and had seen significant early demand from over 10 countries. The test will be introduced this weekend at the Medlab Expo in Dubai.
`` I am immensely proud of the Primerdesign team which has been able to offer this rapid response for our customers who need fast and reliable diagnostic solutions in times such as these, '' Mullis said. | business |
China virus may cause delays of anti-pollution equipment retrofits on ships | - Shipping companies may face delivery delays of vessels fitted with exhaust gas filtering equipment that complies with anti-pollution rules that kicked in this year due to the impact from the virus outbreak in China, shipping sources said on Friday.
A Mitsui OSK Lines executive said many vessels were in Chinese docks to get so-called scrubbers installed to meet the new emissions rules but with four Chinese provinces asking companies to extend the Lunar New Year holiday by a week, to Feb. 10, workers may not be available to complete installations.
`` There are concerns that workers may not return so soon to Chinese repair yards where many vessels are waiting for scrubbers to be installed, '' Takashi Maruyama, Mitsui OSK Chief Financial Officer, told a news conference. He added those vessels include no Mitsui OSK ships.
`` This may eventually reduce the number of vessels available and may lead to a tighter shipping market, '' he said.
`` Ships in drydock are reportedly lying idle without any work being carried out, '' said a Singapore-based shipbroker adding that in some cases even provisions can not be supplied to crews onboard ships in drydock.
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha's Executive Officer Yu Kurimoto also said people were not allowed to enter or exit some areas where there are many repair docks in China.
In the biggest shake-up for the oil and shipping industries in decades, the International Maritime Organization ( IMO) banned ships from using fuels with a sulphur content above 0.5%, down from 3.5%, unless they are equipped with sulphur-stripping devices known as scrubbers.
The ruling started this month as the coronavirus outbreak of gathered pace and spread across the world from Wuhan, China. China is one of the world's biggest centres for ship building, maintenance and refitting.
The United States warned Americans not to travel to China as the death toll from the virus reached 213, a day after the World Health Organization ( WHO) declared a global health emergency.
Mitsui OSK's Maruyama said shipping companies had also been banned from changing crews at some China ports, including Dalian and Qingdao.
Scrubber retrofits and removals of older fleets with a high compliance cost are expected to lead to fleet tightening, which will help increasing freight rates across sectors and ultimately boost orders, IHS Markit said last week.
About 2,000 vessels, or less than 10% of the global fleet capacity, had been equipped with scrubbers, as of Jan. 1, according to IHS Markit.
A Chinese international trade promotion agency said it would offer force majeure certificates to companies struggling to cope with the impact of the new epidemic on their business with overseas partners. ( Reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Roslan Khasawneh in Singapore; Writing by Aaron Sheldrick; editing by Nick Macfie) | business |
Mitsubishi Motors posts surprise third quarter operating loss as car sales slide | Mitsubishi Motors Corp ( 7211.T) on Friday posted a surprise operating loss in the third quarter, its worst quarterly performance in more than three years, hurt by falling sales in China, Japan and Southeast Asia, as well as a stronger yen.
The carmaker posted an operating loss of 6.6 billion yen ( $ 60.2 million) for the October-December quarter, missing an average forecast for a profit of 11.6 billion yen, based on analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
It was the firm’ s biggest loss since the July-September 2016 quarter, when a mileage cheating scandal sapped profits.
However, Mitsubishi stuck to an earlier forecast for a 73% drop in full-year operating profit to 30 billion yen in the year to March.
The automaker’ s net loss for the quarter just ended came in at 14.4 billion yen.
The fall in quarterly sales was worst in China and at home, while sales also slipped in ASEAN countries, traditionally a stronghold, leading to a 16% fall in global vehicle sales to 320,000 units.
The automaker also said it would keep some of its offices in China closed through Feb. 9, as a new coronavirus spreads throughout the country and beyond.
The automaking alliance of Mitsubishi, Renault ( RENA.PA) and Nissan ( 7201.T) on Thursday said they had “ no other option ” but to drastically improve their joint operations to remain competitive in the fast-changing global auto industry.
Reporting by Naomi Tajitsu; editing by Richard Pullin | business |
Asia Gold-Demand slumps as coronavirus grips top consumer | * Chinese markets closed, activity dim in Hong Kong
* Lunar New Year demand at record low- analyst
* Indian market awaits federal budget on Feb. 1
By Arpan Varghese
BENGALURU/MUMBAI, Jan 31 ( Reuters) - Physical gold markets in major Asian hubs saw activity dwindle this week as the coronavirus epidemic took a toll on demand, especially with top consumer China remaining out of action.
Several countries tightened travel curbs because of the coronavirus in China, a day after the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency.
“ The ( gold) market is quiet. Nobody wants to go out and spend money. People are spending money on masks and alcohol. China is still closed, ” said Ronald Leung, chief dealer, Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
Several Chinese municipalities and provinces have asked companies to extend the Lunar New Year holiday by a week, to Feb. 10.
“ Demand in China has hit record low levels during the Chinese New Year in 2020 due to the coronavirus, ” said Samson Li, a Hong Kong-based precious metals analyst at Refinitiv GFMS.
Hong Kong also saw little activity, with gold being sold at anywhere from on par with the benchmark to a premium of about $ 0.40.
Global benchmark spot gold prices remained elevated, at around $ 1,562.70- $ 1,586.43 an ounce.
“ The next two to three weeks will be crucial. The number of cases and how intense the outbreak gets will affect the market, ” said Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd.
In Singapore, premiums were little changed from last week at $ 0.40- $ 0.50 an ounce.
“ We’ ve yet to see a decline in demand from local demand due to the outbreak, probably due to the lack of evidence of any community spread in Singapore, ” Silver Bullion sales manager Vincent Tie said.
India too saw tepid demand, thanks to high domestic prices and in anticipation of the federal budget to be presented on Feb. 1. India had raised import tax on gold in the last budget.
“ Demand is dull. Buyers wanted to know provisions for the bullion industry in the budget before making purchases, ” said Ashok Jain, proprietor of Mumbai-based gold wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji.
Dealers offered discounts of up to $ 13 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from $ 11 last week. The domestic price includes a 12.5% import tax and 3% sales tax.
Gold futures held near a record high of 41,293 rupees hit earlier this month.
“ At this level, jewellers don’ t want to build stocks, ” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a bullion importing bank.
Indian demand could rebound in 2020, the World Gold Council said.
In Japan, gold was sold at a $ 0.50 an ounce premium to a $ 0.50 discount. ( Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan and Sumita Layek in Bengaluru, Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai; Editing by Louise Heavens) | business |
European shares drop on coronavirus cases, weak euro zone data | European shares gave up earlier gains to end firmly in negative territory on Friday after the United Kingdom and Italy confirmed their first coronavirus cases, and with a set of disappointing euro zone indicators also weighing on sentiment.
Britain's blue chip index.FTSE closed down 1.3%, while Milan's main benchmark.FTMIB bled 2.3% as the country's cabinet declared a state of emergency over the virus. Britain and Italy have two cases each.
The pan-European STOXX 600 ended 1.1% lower, taking losses this week to 3% for its worst week in almost six months. On the month, it lost 1.2% - its worst January since 2016.
“ Each new case adds to the uncertainty about the virus, ” said Philip Marey, a strategist at RaboBank.
The World Health Organization declared the epidemic a global emergency on Thursday as the death toll passed 200 and the number of cases of infection rose to nearly 10,000.
While the illness has been centred on China, governments around the world are scrambling to stop its spread and travel curbs and supply chain disruptions have prompted economists to reassess the potential economic fallout from the outbreak.
Miners.SXPP were the biggest losers, down 1.6%, on worries that China and its gigantic market for raw materials will come to a standstill if the epidemic worsens.
Travel and leisure.SXTP stocks also extended losses as more airlines suspended flights to China.
Concerns about the euro zone economy also pushed stocks downwards.
Economic growth in the bloc was less than expected in the last quarter of 2019, mainly due to surprise GDP contractions in France and Italy, while core inflation slowed in January in a worrying sign for the European Central Bank.
The United Kingdom’ s official exit from the European Union later on Friday had no immediate impact on stocks but it fuels uncertainty going forward. The FTSE 100 is roughly back to where it was before Prime Minister Boris Johnson’ s landslide election win on Dec. 12 during which he promised to “ get Brexit done ”.
Among earnings updates, Spanish lender Banco Sabadell ( SABE.MC) tumbled almost 14% to the bottom of STOXX 600 after the lender swung to a loss in the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, shares of Signify ( LIGHT.AS), the world’ s largest maker of lights, rallied 7% after reporting a higher quarterly core profit, which prompted a price target hike from JP Morgan.
France-based healthcare company Novacyt ( ALNOV.PA) ( NCYT.L) shot up 81% after saying it had launched a new molecular test for the coronavirus.
Reporting by Susan Mathew and Medha Singh in Bengaluru, Alves Joice in London; Editing by Bernard Orr, Kirsten Donovan and Frances Kerry | business |
U.S. evacuees from China placed on 72-hour 'hold ' at California military base for medical evaluation | Nearly 200 Americans airlifted from China in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak arrived on Wednesday at a U.S. military base in California, where they will remain isolated for at least 72 hours of medical evaluation, public health officials said.
The group, mostly U.S. diplomats and their families, were evacuated from Wuhan at the epicenter of the outbreak aboard a U.S. government-chartered cargo jet that stopped to refuel in Alaska on Tuesday night before flying on to March Air Reserve Base, about 60 miles ( 97 km) east of Los Angeles.
Foreign governments have begun flying their citizens out of Wuhan as the death toll has risen and the city has entered into a virtual quarantine, with Chinese authorities trying to contain the virus.
The 195 passengers at March air base were medically screened by Chinese government and U.S. State Department officials before boarding the plane in Wuhan, and again during the refueling stop by a team from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC officials said.
All the passengers have agreed to remain voluntarily in special housing at the military base, cordoned off from base personnel, for 72 hours.
“ These people are not under federal quarantine orders, ” said Dr. Christopher Braden, deputy director of the CDC’ s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.
“ I personally talked to them when they were disembarking and going through their first screening checks. They were happy to be here. They were very cooperative with the questions, ” Braden told a news conference at the Riverside University Health System Medical Center, near the base. “ They want to protect themselves. They want to protect others. ”
The U.S. evacuees, who underwent another round of screening on arrival in California, will be given further medical evaluations, including a blood test for exposure to the virus, over the next three days, the officials said.
None of the arriving passengers has so far exhibited any signs of illness such as fever, cough or other respiratory symptoms, the officials said.
The screening in Alaska included a questionnaire to check for factors that would deem them to have been at high risk of infection, including exposure to someone diagnosed with coronavirus or close contact to someone living with a person who was sick.
“ There were no individuals who responded to the questions indicating they were high-risk, ” said Dr. Nancy Knight, director of the CDC’ s Division of Global Health Protection. “ We are reassessing that now. ”
One individual on the original evacuation manifest was barred from boarding the plane in China because the person had a fever.
The State Department ordered its personnel evacuated from the U.S. Consulate in Wuhan and welcomed other American citizens onto the flight because there was excess room on the plane, CDC officials said. The group included an unspecified number of children, ranging from a month-old infant to teenagers, they said.
The plan is to allow the evacuees to return to their homes once the initial evaluation period is over, provided there is no indication of exposure or illness, the officials said.
At that point, absent any symptoms or a positive test result, an individual would be considered non-infectious and be permitted to travel on public transportation without putting others at risk, Braden said.
People who may be incubating the infection before any symptoms appear are not believed to be contagious, Braden said.
Health authorities will continue “ active monitoring ” of all the passengers through the end of a 14-day incubation period, and plans are in place to isolate any individual who shows signs of illness after going home.
If any evacuees test positive or fall ill in the next three days, they would be transferred to the Riverside Medical Center for isolation and treatment, and authorities would decide what measures need to be taken for the rest of the group, Braden said.
Asked if someone in the group who tested negative before the 72-hour hold was over would be free to leave the base early, Knight said that would lead to a conversation that “ would be discussed up to the highest levels within the U.S. government. ”
“ If we think a person is a danger to the community, we can institute an individual quarantine for that person, and we will, ” Braden added. “ If we think it’ s risky, then we have the tools to protect the public and we will use them. ”
So far, five cases of coronavirus have been diagnosed in the United States, none of them fatal, Braden said. A further 165, other than the plane passengers, are under evaluation.
“ There’ s no indication we have any transmission from those cases, and therefore the risk for people in the United States, we believe, is low, ” Braden said.
Reporting by Omar Younis; Additional reporting by Steve Gorman in Culver City, Calif. and Andrew Hay in New Mexico; Writing by Steve Gorman; Editing by Bill Tarrant, Rosalba O'Brien and Peter Cooney | business |
Dow Drops 650 Points Because the Stock Market Finally Cares About Coronavirus | Getty Images
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down more than 600 points as investors finally decide to start worrying about the
spread of China’ s coronavirus
and the implications for the global economy.
The Dow has dropped 655.08 points, or 2.3%, to 28,204.36, while the
S & P 500
has fallen 1.8% to 3222.31. The
Nasdaq Composite
is off 1.8% at 9131.64.
The coronavirus is spreading. According to Johns Hopkins, which has a website dedicate to the virus,
9,776 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed
, with 213 total deaths. Most of the cases are still in China, but it has spread to 22 other countries, and there’ s no telling whether the number of cases outside China will explode. The market is clearly saying that the risks posed by the virus aren’ t in the past just yet.
The market knows that growth in China and Asia will be hit. Markets in China are closed for the Lunar New Year, but trading in ETFs dedicated to the country continues, and they’ re getting hit hard. The
iShares China Large-Cap ETF
( FXI) has dropped 6.5% this week, while the
iShares MSCI China ETF
( MCHI) is off 5.6%.
U.S. stocks, however, have been a calm in the storm, and it’ s no longer clear that’ s deserved. Yet even with today’ s losses the Dow is down just 2.8% this week, while the S & P 500 is off 2.2%. Both probably need to get bigger before they can get smaller.
Still, some observers see just another buying opportunity, as so many pullbacks have been during this bull market. “ One month after the
WHO has announced a global health crisis
, the S & P 500 has traded higher seven out of eleven times and higher eleven out of eleven times three months later, ” writes Tigress Financial’ s Ivan Feinseth. “ I continue to say that the current coronavirus related selloff is a buying opportunity. ”
Are you in?
Write to
Ben Levisohn at
Ben.Levisohn @ barrons.com | business |
How Investors Can Use Options Trades to Profit During Earnings Season | It’ s earnings season, and for every
Amazon.com
,
which gained more than 8% after
beating
forecasts, there’ s a
Facebook
,
which
dropped
more than 6%.
It might be hard to predict how a stock reacts to earnings, but investors can look to the
options market
for clues to what Wall Street expects. It can also help identify opportunities for short-term trading gains.
Options prices are determined by a few things, with volatility being one of the biggest factors. The more a stock fluctuates, the higher the odds an options contract will be worth something. If a stock price never changed, the value of an option—the right to buy or sell that stock at a different price in the future—would be zero.
The volatility embedded in options prices holds a wealth of information. Importantly, it can signal how violently a stock will react when earnings are reported.
Traders often use an options “ straddle ” if they expect a stock to move, even if they don’ t know which direction it will go. In the strategy, traders buy a call option—the right to buy a stock—and a put option—the right to sell a stock—at the same price and at the same time in the future.
Measuring the cost of a straddle tells investors, very roughly, what to expect after earnings. It’ s only a rule of thumb, and tends to overstate the expected move,
J.P. Morgan
equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg tells
Barron’ s
. “ It’ s difficult to explain without going into the math, ” he adds.
For example, the cost of a near-dated straddle for Honeywell International
( ticker: HON) before earnings were reported on Friday was about $ 7, or 4% of the $ 177 stock price, implying that the stock would move about 4% after earnings. The stock fluctuated about 4% on Friday. The options market got it right.
Looking ahead into the coming week, we can perform the same exercise with several big
S & P 500
names. Google parent
Alphabet
( GOOGL), for instance, is expected to move about 5% to 7% after it reports late Monday. That’ s a big move, but in line with past quarters.
The market is expecting 6% to 7% moves from
Royal Caribbean Cruises
( RCL), which reports Tuesday morning, and from
Qualcomm
( QCOM), which reports late Wednesday. That’ s larger than average for the pair, but volatility is likely elevated
because of the coronavirus
. Qualcomm makes and sells product in Asia, while Royal is a travel stock.
Read More Trader
The Dow Finally Took the Coronavirus Seriously and Dropped 733 Points
Peloton’ s Earnings Could Settle the Debate: Keep Buying the Stock, or Sell Short
You don’ t need a global crisis to increase volatility.
General Motors
( GM) stock could move a larger-than-average 5% when it reports numbers Wednesday morning. The
Detroit Auto Show
—where car makers once gave full-year guidance—has moved from January to June.
Options are complicated, and trading them isn’ t for the faint of heart. But investors shouldn’ t ignore the information they provide. It can help take the edge off wild markets like this one.
Write to
Al Root at
allen.root @ dowjones.com | business |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops 733 Points on Week as Coronavirus Takes Toll | Like a houseguest who has overstayed his welcome, the coronavirus has been in the headlines long enough that the market couldn’ t ignore it any longer—and it won’ t be as easy to evict.
After a 1.6% drop on Monday, the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
looked ready to move on to more important things, like corporate earnings. But no. Friday came, and the market sold off with a vengeance. All told, the Dow dropped 733.70 points, or 2.53%, to 28,256.03 this past week, while the
S & P 500
fell 2.1%, to 3225.52, their largest one-week declines since Aug. 2.
What’ s surprising is how quickly everything changed. Until Friday, most of the market damage had been contained to regions closest to the outbreak’ s epicenter or to industries directly exposed to it. China’ s stock market has been closed for the Lunar New Year, but exchange-traded funds in the U.S. were open, and they certainly haven’ t performed well.
The
iShares China Large-Cap
ETF ( ticker: FXI), for instance, dropped 8.9% in January. United Airlines Holdings ( UAL), cruise-line
Carnival
( CCL), and Macau casino operator
Wynn Resorts
( WYNN) also got hit.
By week’ s end, though, it was clear that the virus had the potential to be a much bigger problem, as sectors that had held up were finally hit. Tech fell 2.7% on Friday—it had been up at Thursday’ s close. Only utilities, up 0.8%, and consumer discretionary, up 0.1%, finished the week higher.
Maybe it was new cases showing up in India and elsewhere that shook the market. Maybe it was the knowledge that the longer the virus remained unchecked, the greater the chance that it would have a meaningful impact on global supply chains. Or maybe it was the realization that it has at least postponed a rebound in global economic growth, if not canceled it altogether.
“ If output buckles just intra-quarter, the market impact could be less persistent and more localized as investors focus on a Q2 to Q4 return to reflation, ” writes
J.P. Morgan
strategist John Normand. “ If factories don’ t reopen after Feb 9th, a major but regional and brief demand shock could become a more damaging global supply shock. ”
But there are some good things to come out of the chaos. For one, the stock market is no longer overbought. More than 80% of S & P 500 companies closed above their 50-day moving averages on Jan. 17, a level last reached in mid-2019. On Friday, that number dropped to 45%. At the same time, volatility, which had been hibernating, suddenly revived. The
Cboe S & P 100 Volatility Index
,
or VXO ( which has a longer history than the
Cboe Volatility Index
,
or VIX), traded as high as 21.60 on Friday after 76 days below that level.
Read More Trader
Peloton’ s Earnings Could Settle the Debate: Keep Buying the Stock, or Sell Short
How Investors Can Use Options Trades to Profit During Earnings Season
The good news is that the stock market has risen in the months after such spikes in volatility following long periods of calm, according to Sundial Capital Research. For instance, the S & P 500 had a median gain of 8.5% six months later and was positive 90% of the time.
That doesn’ t mean the pain is over—the S & P 500 is down just 3.1% from its all-time high hit on Jan. 17, after all—but it does mean that investors should look for a buying opportunity once fear of the coronavirus starts to fade, says Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Capital Wealth Planning. “ If you go back and look at all these things, they hit the nadir and the stock market rips, ” he explains. “ How low it goes is unknowable, but it’ s a buy. ”
Just not yet.
Write to
Ben Levisohn at
Ben.Levisohn @ barrons.com | business |
If McDonald’ s uses frozen chicken it can’ t compete with Popeyes and Chick-fil-A, JPMorgan says | Noting the ongoing chicken sandwich war, McDonald’ s Corp. says it’ s focused on new product in this category, but JPMorgan analysts say the fast-food giant will have a hard time competing with Popeyes and Chick-fil-A for operational reasons.
Despite largely sitting out the chicken sandwich competition, McDonald’ s reported an earnings and revenue beat for the
fourth quarter
on Wednesday.
On the earnings conference call, Chief Executive Chris Kempczinksi said the company
MCD,
-0.82%
has “ a very detailed and intimate understanding of what our competitors are doing. ”
On Tuesday
, McDonald’ s announced the addition of two limited-time chicken sandwiches to the breakfast menu using its existing McChicken patty.
Read:
Starbucks says coronavirus outbreak likely to hit profit this year
“ Our menu, as you know, is much more broad than some of our competitors, so that’ s something that we need to be mindful of in terms of what we might do in chicken, what knock-on effect that might have on the rest of the menu from the speed of service, ” Kempczinksi said, according to a FactSet transcript of the Wednesday earnings call.
Based on the company commentary, JPMorgan analysts think McDonald’ s is limited in the type of product it can use to compete in the ongoing chicken sandwich war, and that will hurt the fast-food giant.
“ To us, this means a fast-executed-from-frozen product that will not be able to fully meet the fresh product started with at Popeyes or Chick-fil-A, ” analysts wrote in a note.
Popeyes is part of the Restaurant Brands International Inc.
QSR,
-0.12%
portfolio and Chick-fil-A is privately-held.
JPMorgan rates McDonald’ s overweight with a $ 215 price target.
McDonald’ s is also facing a breakfast battle with Wendy’ s Co.
WEN,
-4.36%
, which is investing
$ 20 million to launch
a morning menu.
“ Domestically, McDonald’ s continues to struggle at breakfast, which could get more complicated with the national breakfast launch at Wendy’ s in coming weeks, though management indicated this would be of utmost focus for the coming year, ” said BTIG analysts led by Peter Saleh in a note.
McDonald’ s Chief Financial Officer Kevin Ozan said on the call that getting guest count back to growth in the U.S. is a “ top priority. ”
“ In particular, the U.S. is centered on stemming traffic losses at the breakfast daypart by focusing on running better operations, introducing new menu items, and offering delicious food at a compelling price point, ” he said.
Dow Jones Market Data Group
BTIG notes that all of the segments of the day had declines, but at breakfast, McDonald’ s may also be facing off with another chain.
“ While we hesitate to believe that McDonald’ s and Starbucks have significant customer overlap, we believe that on the margin, Starbucks’ recent gains have had some impact, ” analysts said.
Starbucks
SBUX,
-1.19%
reported fiscal first-quarter results on Tuesday.
See:
Starbucks would’ ve raised its guidance if not for the coronavirus
BTIG rates McDonald’ s stock buy with a $ 240 price target.
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey also raises the specter of promotional risk. Analysts led by Jake Bartlett think franchisees, who have record cash flows, could focus on value to take on other fast-food chains.
“ [ W ] e still expect a balanced promotional environment, but our concern is rising, ” SunTrust said.
Should value come into play, SunTrust said Wendy’ s, Jack in the Box Inc.
JACK,
-1.43%
and Carrolls Restaurant Group Inc.
TAST,
-3.68%
,
the largest Burger King franchisee, would be exposed.
Burger King, like Popeyes, is part of the Restaurant Brands International portfolio.
SunTrust rates McDonald’ s stock buy with a $ 250 price target.
McDonald’ s stock has gained 19.5% over the past year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.89%
is up 13% for the period. | business |
Gold eases back from highest level since 2013, but posts a second monthly climb | Gold settled lower Friday, pulling back from the more-than-six-year high it settled at a day earlier, but prices scored a second straight monthly climb.
The precious metal ended at its highest weekly price settlement since March 2013—entirely erasing “ that spring’ s ugly crash, ” and gold was “ pretty much the only thing to catch a bid as January ends, ” said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault.
“ The current backdrop for gold is stereotypical of strong phases, ” he told MarketWatch. “ Over-priced stock markets are wobbling, global growth is slowing hard, and political uncertainty is worsening. ”
Read:
Why the ‘ simplest hedge is best’ as coronavirus fears take toll on stocks
Against that backdrop, gold for April delivery
US: GCJ20
on Comex lost $ 1.30, or 0.1%, to settle at $ 1,587.90 an ounce. Prices for the most-active April contract saw weekly climb of 0.6%, and a rise of about 3.8% for the month, according to FactSet. The settlement level also marked the highest weekly price finish since March 2013.
March silver
US: SIH20
added 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $ 18.012 an ounce, with most-active contract up by 0.5% for the month.
Gold’ s rally was boosted this week as worries mounted over the potential global economic impact of the spread of the coronavirus. Those concerns helped burnish gold’ s appeal as a haven as investors shunned risky assets, including stocks.
Gold “ has been in a strong uptrend since early December, largely due to the significant monetary stimulus from central banks around the world, ” said Harry G. Katica, analyst at Saut Strategy, in a note. “ With a greater possibility of economic slowdown, further rate cuts may be needed as the year progresses. This would be good for gold. ”
Global equity markets were under pressure Friday, but U.S. stocks had rebound on Thursday afternoon after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency, with analysts tying the bounce to relief over the lack of a recommendation by the body to restrict travel to or trade with China. Beijing has reported
nearly 9,700 cases of coronavirus
, while the death toll has climbed to 213. The U.S. State Department on Friday urged Americans not to travel to China.
In other metals trade, April platinum
US: PLJ20
lost 1.9% at $ 961.90 an ounce, with most-active contract prices down about 1.6% since the end of December, while March palladium
US: PAH20
rose 0.4% to $ 2,224.70 an ounce, for a monthly rise of 16.5%.
March copper
US: HGH20
edged down 0.3% to $ 2.517 a pound, for a monthly decline of about 10%.
“ Certainly, the market has forged significant demand destruction price action already but given the images of empty thoroughfares, empty shopping malls and most importantly, empty major train stations the setback in Chinese copper demand is going to be significant in the months ahead, ” analysts at Zaner Metals wrote in a daily report Friday. | business |
Starbucks would’ ve raised its guidance if not for the coronavirus | Starbucks Corp.’ s fiscal first quarter was going well, and then the coronavirus hit.
The global coffee giant reported earnings that beat expectations and global same-store sales growth of 5%. The company planned to raise its guidance, but the outbreak in China stopped them.
“ Given the strength of our Q1 results, we had intended to raise certain aspects of our full year financial outlook for fiscal 2020, ” said Chief Executive Kevin Johnson on the late Tuesday earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. “ However, due to the dynamic situation unfolding with the coronavirus, we are not revising guidance at this time and as we get more clarity on the situation, we will transparently communicate with investors. ”
Read:
Starbucks says coronavirus outbreak likely to hit profit this year
Starbucks
SBUX,
-1.90%
said it has closed more than half of its stores in China, and changed all of its operating hours in the region in response. Starbucks has about 4,300 stores in China.
Starbucks had a 3% same-store sales increase in China during the fiscal first quarter, and a 1% increase in transactions.
Starbucks’ previously announced fiscal 2020 guidance, including global same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%, revenue growth of 6% to 8%, earnings in the range of $ 2.84 to $ 2.89 and adjusted EPS of $ 3.00 to $ 3.05.
The FactSet consensus is for same-store sales growth of 3.4%, revenue of $ 28.13 billion, implying a 6.1% increase, and EPS of $ 3.01.
Starbucks stock was down 2.8% in Wednesday trading.
Despite this tremendous challenge, Starbucks executives and analysts are positive about the company and the future.
“ [ W ] e see strong fiscal first quarter results ( prior to the coronavirus outbreak) as indicative of the strength of the underlying fundamentals, and view near-term stock weakness as an opportunity as we expect continued Americas strength and ultimately a recovery in earnings growth given the nature of the disruption ( that is, not a company/brand-specific issue), ” RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Carril wrote.
See:
Can Starbucks save the planet by cutting dairy? Activists and investors respond
RBC rates Starbucks shares outperform with a $ 97 price target.
JPMorgan analysts agree that the coronavirus-related challenges in China are mitigated by the fact that they aren’ t company-specific.
“ This is not a Starbucks brand issue in any way, like we have seen in various cases in major markets where recovery cost/length is uncertain as consumer sentiment is negative on a brand-specific basis, ” analysts said.
“ Instead, we are taking a ‘ wait-and-see’ approach and not viewing coronavirus as any type of impairment to Starbucks’ longer-term growth outlook, although fiscal 2020 comp and even store growth are at risk. ”
JPMorgan rates Starbucks stock overweight with a $ 94 price target.
UBS analysts called the same-store sales result in China “ light, ” but remains bullish about the region.
“ We expect Starbucks China fundamentals remain solid given digital, loyalty and product innovation, and solid go forward store development levels will be maintained, ” analysts said.
Don’ t miss:
E-commerce surge sparks questions about reliability of same-store sales metric
UBS rates Starbucks shares neutral with a $ 95 price target.
BTIG analysts are more concerned than others about the impact that the operational interruption in China will have.
“ The magnitude of the financial impact is very difficult to gauge at this point, the duration of the closures remains unknown and we believe Starbucks continues to pay its employees despite the store closures, ” analysts led by Peter Saleh wrote.
“ While impressed by the turnaround in results over the past several quarters, we remain neutral given the year-to-date performance, heightened valuation and unfolding China uncertainty at this time. ”
Starbucks shares have rallied 25% over the past year while the benchmark S & P 500 index
SPX,
-1.23%
is up 20.7% for the period. | business |
Does a Prada Sale Make Sense? | This Week in Fashion
The Italian brand may no longer be a luxury leader, but it is still an attractive asset for prospective buyers.
This Week in Fashion
The Italian brand may no longer be a luxury leader, but it is still an attractive asset for prospective buyers.
Hello BoF Professionals, your exclusive 'This Week in Fashion ' briefing is ready, with members-only analysis on the key topic of the week and a digest of the week's top news.After bubbling up for months, speculation mounted during the recent men's fashion month that the Italian luxury goods maker was exploring a sale to Kering, LVMH or even Richemont. Reports also spread that designer Raf Simons was set to join Prada Group SpA in some capacity.The rumours followed a small but notable change in the parent company's structure this past October, when it bought four key Prada brand stores in Milan that were previously owned by the Prada family and operated through franchise agreements. Any future acquirer would want these stores, especially its first location open since 1913. Was this consolidation a sign of something to come? A representative for Prada denied a forthcoming sale and declined to comment on Simons’ potential arrival. Representatives for Kering and Richemont declined to comment. At its annual results presentation this week, LVMH Chairman and Chief Executive Bernard Arnault brushed off the rumours when asked.Prada’ s Chief Executive Patrizio Bertelli, who controls 80 percent of the business with partner and designer Miuccia Prada, has for years rebuffed any intentions to sell the company.Even if all the recent Prada related speculation is just that, the luxury brand’ s future may depend on plugging into one of the all-powerful luxury conglomerates.Prada, the brand, is bigger than Prada, the business, making it an attractive asset for prospective buyers.Prada, the brand, is bigger than Prada, the business, making it an attractive asset for prospective buyers. Prada’ s logo may not have quite the same name recognition as the Louis Vuitton `` LV, '' but the brand is one of the oldest and most respected Italian houses in luxury. Miuccia Prada’ s men’ s and women’ s collections continue to earn praise from critics and creatives. And the company has potential to grow, as it is still much smaller than many of its heritage peers including Gucci and Louis Vuitton. “ It’ s one of the biggest luxury brands in the world: If they make a phone call to Avenue Montaigne or to the headquarters of Kering, they will have an answer, ” said Mario Ortelli, managing partner of luxury advisory firm Ortelli & Co. “ But who decides the future are Miuccia Prada and Patrizio Bertelli. ” Indeed, the business is deeply personal to Prada and Bertelli, and they are not facing any external pressure to sell it. And with the share price down 35 percent over the last five years, the timing isn’ t ideal now either.But Prada has suffered from strategic missteps in recent years, and would benefit from the management muscle that a big conglomerate would bring.Despite efforts to adapt to industry shifts in distribution and communications, Prada was too late to recognise these key changes, investing in additional stores when competitors started prioritising online sales.Merchandising has also been a problem. Despite having the historical bona fides to lead the latest streetwear luxury wave — the 1990s hit Linea Rossa line established the movement then — the brand cut back on entry-level price point products just as competitors established themselves in the key sneaker and athleisure categories and courted Chinese shoppers.By the time Prada relaunched its Linea Rossa line in 2018 and partnered with Adidas in 2019, the luxury streetwear trend was already well-trod territory for Louis Vuitton and Balenciaga.Prada’ s recent challenges first became painfully apparent in 2016, when revenues decreased 10.3 percent on constant exchange rates to €3.2 billion, down from €3.5 billion in 2014. A turnaround plan is ongoing, with focus on moving more sales from wholesale to direct retail, reducing markdowns and enforcing a greater control over prices. In 2018, Prada started an invitation-only pop-up club series called Prada Mode, as part of an effort to extend the community of creatives around the brand.But the financial results are still underwhelming. Revenue in the first half of 2019 was flat year-over-year for the group and for Prada the brand, which represents more than 80 percent of sales. Retail sales decreased after the brand stopped all promotions and discounts in January 2019, but full-price retail sales grew slightly. Handbag sales were flat. Meanwhile, the company closed 10 stores and opened 11, and is planning about 50 store renovations and relocation projects.Prada’ s wholesale revenue was more positive in the period, as it continues to work with multi-brand e-commerce players like MyTheresa and Net-a-Porter, partners only since 2016. But a wholesale rationalisation strategy kicked off in the second half of 2019, reducing the amount of product available via these retailers by 50 percent for the spring 2020 season, according to Bertelli’ s remarks to analysts in August 2019.Some analysts have recommended an organisational refresh, including new leadership, as well as new approaches in merchandising and branding.But regardless of what headway Prada is able to make, operating independently in the luxury business is an increasingly uphill battle as the industry continues to consolidate under the umbrellas of LVMH, Kering and Richemont, which wield greater negotiating power with outside partners and have strong networks of executives and designers.Even Moncler, with its double-digit, Genius project-fueled growth, has been the subject of sale rumours.Surviving independently requires risk-taking, Ortelli said, and risks are harder to take when the competitors are so far ahead. “ To take market share away from the other major brands like Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Saint Laurent is very difficult when, as in the last years, they are having a great momentum ” he said.With the support of LVMH or Kering as a parent company, however, Prada could accelerate its modernisation efforts, taking advantage of those companies’ more developed e-commerce capabilities and tapping into a network of trained luxury executives who would bring new leadership to the company. And it could benefit from less public exposure as it takes time to invest for long-term success.What happens after Miuccia, whenever that may be? All of these concerns are secondary to the main question looming over Prada: what happens after Miuccia, whenever that may be? The designer has been the creative force of the business since 1978 — its entire expansion into hit handbags, footwear and ready-to-wear. And historically, the transition at a namesake brand from the founding designer to successors is a turbulent one. Valentino Garavani’ s first successor, Alessandra Facchinetti, butted heads with management and left after two seasons. In the years after Yves Saint Laurent’ s death, the brand was challenged and ebbed and flowed under a series of different creative directors and chief executives. “ For [ namesake ] brands, the change of the founding designer is always the most complex phase, and it requires a long time to be realised successfully, ” said Ortelli. “ If you are an independent company you are in the spotlight. If you are part of a group you can more easily take time. ” Prada and Bertelli, now both in their 70s, have not publicly addressed succession plans and did not appear to have a strategy in place until their son Lorenzo Bertelli joined the company as head of digital communication in September 2018. His arrival signalled that the company may keep the business in the family moving forward, and he may be ambitious enough to lead a more effective turnaround independently. “ A brand like Prada has the size and the strength to survive independently, ” said Ortelli. “ It is a question of willingness. ” THE NEWS IN BRIEFFASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMYKobe Bryant unveiling his All-Star 2006 Nike Kobe I basketball sneakers on February 16, 2006 in Houston, Texas. | Getty ImagesKobe Bryant's unexpected death sends signature sneaker prices soaring on resale sites. Within minutes of reports of Bryant’ s death, a pair of his Slam Dunk Contest shoes sold on resale platform StockX for $ 1,199 — a 600 percent increase over the previous sale nine days earlier. This is creating a dilemma for resale platforms, who don’ t want to be seen as profiting off the death of a beloved celebrity but are reluctant to interfere in the marketplaces that drive their business. Pucci to adopt Moncler’ s Genius model. Pucci, which has been without a creative director for almost two years, is planning to work with guest designers on its main collections, starting with Koché’ s Christelle Kocher. For Moncler, the strategy has helped introduce the brand to a younger demographic. But whether Pucci’ s approach will work depends on its ability to deliver desirable products and execute an effective marketing strategy.Nordstrom launches secondhand clothing sales. The Seattle-based department store becomes the latest retailer to dabble in the burgeoning resale market, which grew to $ 28 billion last year. Nordstrom’ s resale experiment is only the latest effort by the company to breathe new life into the department store model. Since sales rose in 2018, Nordstrom has seen uneven progress in recent quarters. Multi-brand retailers are suffering as a group, as consumers can find many of the same products online, and brands drive more sales through their own websites and stores.LVMH's sales growth slows slightly. The company, which posted record revenues and profits for the whole of 2019, missed analysts estimates by 1 percent in the fourth quarter due in part to ongoing political unrest in Hong Kong. In a presentation with analysts, Chief Executive Bernard Arnault said 2020 is likely to bring further disruptions. Key takeaways include that Tiffany is tasked with doubling in the next decade, and Hedi Slimane’ s Celine and Fenty are off to a slow start.Canadian brands hope to cash in on the “ Meghan Effect. ” Experts speculate that the Sussexes’ move to North America could bolster the country’ s fashion industry by spotlighting homegrown labels. Canada could boost its C $ 30.6 billion ( $ 23.3 billion) fashion industry, experts say, which is particularly welcome after a recent 2.1 percent decline in local retail sales of clothing and accessories.Levi's shuts half its China stores on coronavirus outbreak. The American denim label, which gets about 3 percent of its revenue from China, will take a near-term financial hit as a result of the epidemic. This comes a few months after Levi's opened its largest store in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic which has killed about 170 people, marring its plans to tap into the city's 11 million-strong population.Report: L Brands chief executive in talks to step aside and sell Victoria's Secret. The move comes as the nearly $ 6 billion company faced slumping sales at the lingerie giant for at least four quarters. L Brands has tried to update the marketing strategy for Victoria’ s Secret and cancelled its annual fashion show late last year after accusations of cultural appropriation, objectification of women and a lack of diversity on the runway.Ferragamo's annual sales increased for the first time since 2015. The 1.3 percent year-over-year rise in 2019 is a sign that a turnaround plan under Chief Executive Micaela Le Divelec is starting to bear fruit. A former Gucci executive, Le Divelec started as chief executive at Ferragamo 18 months ago and has been working to rejuvenate the brand by investing in new products and digital marketing.Swatch group braces for Hong Kong slump. The Swiss watchmaker's sales took a hit, dropping 2.7 percent to 8.24 billion francs ( around $ 8.5 billion). Swiss watch sales have underperformed other luxury goods as political protests shook Hong Kong. Smartwatches have also taken market share from similarly priced Swiss watches. Changes in distribution also took their toll.THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTYLVMH Luxury Ventures is an investor in Versed, a `` clean '' skincare brand | Source: CourtesyLVMH invests in Versed, a “ clean ” beauty brand. Versed recently closed an $ 11 million Series A, becoming a fast-growing mass label with most products priced at or below $ 17.99, and some under $ 10. At just eight months old, Versed is the youngest and least “ luxe ” company in the fund’ s portfolio, which also includes sneaker reseller Stadium Goods, Gabriela Hearst’ s luxury label and French beauty brand L'Officine Universelle Buly.Estée Lauder announced leadership shakeup. Estée Lauder Companies has made a number of internal appointments across its brand portfolio, promoting Justin Boxford to global brand president, La Mer; Philippe Pinatel to global brand president, MAC Cosmetics; Deborah Royer to global brand president and chief creative officer, Le Labo; and Christopher Wood to president, North Asia for Dr Jart+ and Do The Right Thing.PEOPLEKarl-Johan Persson | Source: H & M Media GalleryH & M chief executive steps down amid reshuffle. H & M President and Chief Executive Karl-Johan Persson is stepping down to succeed his father, Stefan Persson, as chairman. Helena Helmersson, previously chief operating officer at the Swedish retailer, replaces Persson as the company’ s first female chief executive as of January 30. She is also the first non-family member to assume the role at the company.J.Crew names former Victoria's Secret head Jan Singer chief executive. The seasoned executive's appointment is the result of a search that took more than a year. J.Crew sales have plunged in recent years, and the brand is planning a spinoff of the more-successful Madewell. Before her time in the top job at Victoria's Secret, Singer was chief executive of the women's shapewear brand Spanx, and previously worked at Nike for over a decade. She will join J.Crew on February 2.Levi’ s adds Apple data scientist to board of directors. Levi Strauss & Co. has appointed Yael Garten, director of Siri data science and engineering for Apple, to its board of directors. Garten is also an advisory board member at Northwestern University. MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGYFarfetch gets $ 250 million investment from Tencent and Dragoneer. The luxury online marketplace says it will use the money to expand in China as it looks to reach profitability. Farfetch is competing in a crowded market for luxury e-commerce, facing off with Net-a-Porter, MatchesFashion and potentially Amazon. Some analysts and investors are sceptical of Farfetch’ s growth plans, as the company has made a series of unexpected acquisitions and has yet to turn a profit.H & M says data protection breaches are unacceptable. The company is cooperating with the local data protection supervisory authority in its investigation into security breaches found at its German unit. It has been reported that H & M collected information on illnesses and other personal circumstances of employees at the H & M Customer Centre for Germany and Austria.UPS to double down on weekend deliveries. The package carrier aims to keep pace with Amazon, which itself delivered 3.5 billion packages globally last year. The average volume of overall US weekend deliveries doubled to 13.5 million units between 2013 to 2019 as online sales surged 127 percent to almost $ 591 billion in 2019. As a result, UPS added Sunday to its weekend services at the start of this year.BoF Professional is your competitive advantage in a fast-changing fashion industry. Missed some BoF Professional exclusive features? Click here to browse the archive.
After bubbling up for months, speculation mounted during the recent men's fashion month that the Italian luxury goods maker was exploring a sale to Kering, LVMH or even Richemont. Reports also spread that designer Raf Simons was set to join Prada Group SpA in some capacity.
The rumours followed a small but notable change in the parent company's structure this past October, when it bought four key Prada brand stores in Milan that were previously owned by the Prada family and operated through franchise agreements. Any future acquirer would want these stores, especially its first location open since 1913. Was this consolidation a sign of something to come?
A representative for Prada denied a forthcoming sale and declined to comment on Simons’ potential arrival. Representatives for Kering and Richemont declined to comment. At its annual results presentation this week, LVMH Chairman and Chief Executive Bernard Arnault brushed off the rumours when asked.
Prada’ s Chief Executive Patrizio Bertelli, who controls 80 percent of the business with partner and designer Miuccia Prada, has for years rebuffed any intentions to sell the company.
Even if all the recent Prada related speculation is just that, the luxury brand’ s future may depend on plugging into one of the all-powerful luxury conglomerates.
Prada, the brand, is bigger than Prada, the business, making it an attractive asset for prospective buyers.
Prada, the brand, is bigger than Prada, the business, making it an attractive asset for prospective buyers. Prada’ s logo may not have quite the same name recognition as the Louis Vuitton `` LV, '' but the brand is one of the oldest and most respected Italian houses in luxury. Miuccia Prada’ s men’ s and women’ s collections continue to earn praise from critics and creatives. And the company has potential to grow, as it is still much smaller than many of its heritage peers including Gucci and Louis Vuitton.
“ It’ s one of the biggest luxury brands in the world: If they make a phone call to Avenue Montaigne or to the headquarters of Kering, they will have an answer, ” said Mario Ortelli, managing partner of luxury advisory firm Ortelli & Co. “ But who decides the future are Miuccia Prada and Patrizio Bertelli. ”
Indeed, the business is deeply personal to Prada and Bertelli, and they are not facing any external pressure to sell it. And with the share price down 35 percent over the last five years, the timing isn’ t ideal now either.
But Prada has suffered from strategic missteps in recent years, and would benefit from the management muscle that a big conglomerate would bring.
Despite efforts to adapt to industry shifts in distribution and communications, Prada was too late to recognise these key changes, investing in additional stores when competitors started prioritising online sales.
Merchandising has also been a problem. Despite having the historical bona fides to lead the latest streetwear luxury wave — the 1990s hit Linea Rossa line established the movement then — the brand cut back on entry-level price point products just as competitors established themselves in the key sneaker and athleisure categories and courted Chinese shoppers.
By the time Prada relaunched its Linea Rossa line in 2018 and partnered with Adidas in 2019, the luxury streetwear trend was already well-trod territory for Louis Vuitton and Balenciaga.
Prada’ s recent challenges first became painfully apparent in 2016, when revenues decreased 10.3 percent on constant exchange rates to €3.2 billion, down from €3.5 billion in 2014.
A turnaround plan is ongoing, with focus on moving more sales from wholesale to direct retail, reducing markdowns and enforcing a greater control over prices. In 2018, Prada started an invitation-only pop-up club series called Prada Mode, as part of an effort to extend the community of creatives around the brand.
But the financial results are still underwhelming. Revenue in the first half of 2019 was flat year-over-year for the group and for Prada the brand, which represents more than 80 percent of sales. Retail sales decreased after the brand stopped all promotions and discounts in January 2019, but full-price retail sales grew slightly. Handbag sales were flat. Meanwhile, the company closed 10 stores and opened 11, and is planning about 50 store renovations and relocation projects.
Prada’ s wholesale revenue was more positive in the period, as it continues to work with multi-brand e-commerce players like MyTheresa and Net-a-Porter, partners only since 2016. But a wholesale rationalisation strategy kicked off in the second half of 2019, reducing the amount of product available via these retailers by 50 percent for the spring 2020 season, according to Bertelli’ s remarks to analysts in August 2019.
Some analysts have recommended an organisational refresh, including new leadership, as well as new approaches in merchandising and branding.
But regardless of what headway Prada is able to make, operating independently in the luxury business is an increasingly uphill battle as the industry continues to consolidate under the umbrellas of LVMH, Kering and Richemont, which wield greater negotiating power with outside partners and have strong networks of executives and designers.
Even Moncler, with its double-digit, Genius project-fueled growth, has been the subject of sale rumours.
Surviving independently requires risk-taking, Ortelli said, and risks are harder to take when the competitors are so far ahead. “ To take market share away from the other major brands like Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Saint Laurent is very difficult when, as in the last years, they are having a great momentum ” he said.
With the support of LVMH or Kering as a parent company, however, Prada could accelerate its modernisation efforts, taking advantage of those companies’ more developed e-commerce capabilities and tapping into a network of trained luxury executives who would bring new leadership to the company. And it could benefit from less public exposure as it takes time to invest for long-term success.
What happens after Miuccia, whenever that may be?
All of these concerns are secondary to the main question looming over Prada: what happens after Miuccia, whenever that may be? The designer has been the creative force of the business since 1978 — its entire expansion into hit handbags, footwear and ready-to-wear. And historically, the transition at a namesake brand from the founding designer to successors is a turbulent one. Valentino Garavani’ s first successor, Alessandra Facchinetti, butted heads with management and left after two seasons. In the years after Yves Saint Laurent’ s death, the brand was challenged and ebbed and flowed under a series of different creative directors and chief executives.
“ For [ namesake ] brands, the change of the founding designer is always the most complex phase, and it requires a long time to be realised successfully, ” said Ortelli. “ If you are an independent company you are in the spotlight. If you are part of a group you can more easily take time. ”
Prada and Bertelli, now both in their 70s, have not publicly addressed succession plans and did not appear to have a strategy in place until their son Lorenzo Bertelli joined the company as head of digital communication in September 2018. His arrival signalled that the company may keep the business in the family moving forward, and he may be ambitious enough to lead a more effective turnaround independently.
“ A brand like Prada has the size and the strength to survive independently, ” said Ortelli. “ It is a question of willingness. ”
THE NEWS IN BRIEF
FASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY
Kobe Bryant unveiling his All-Star 2006 Nike Kobe I basketball sneakers on February 16, 2006 in Houston, Texas. | Getty Images
Kobe Bryant's unexpected death sends signature sneaker prices soaring on resale sites. Within minutes of reports of Bryant’ s death, a pair of his Slam Dunk Contest shoes sold on resale platform StockX for $ 1,199 — a 600 percent increase over the previous sale nine days earlier. This is creating a dilemma for resale platforms, who don’ t want to be seen as profiting off the death of a beloved celebrity but are reluctant to interfere in the marketplaces that drive their business.
Pucci to adopt Moncler’ s Genius model. Pucci, which has been without a creative director for almost two years, is planning to work with guest designers on its main collections, starting with Koché’ s Christelle Kocher. For Moncler, the strategy has helped introduce the brand to a younger demographic. But whether Pucci’ s approach will work depends on its ability to deliver desirable products and execute an effective marketing strategy.
Nordstrom launches secondhand clothing sales. The Seattle-based department store becomes the latest retailer to dabble in the burgeoning resale market, which grew to $ 28 billion last year. Nordstrom’ s resale experiment is only the latest effort by the company to breathe new life into the department store model. Since sales rose in 2018, Nordstrom has seen uneven progress in recent quarters. Multi-brand retailers are suffering as a group, as consumers can find many of the same products online, and brands drive more sales through their own websites and stores.
LVMH's sales growth slows slightly. The company, which posted record revenues and profits for the whole of 2019, missed analysts estimates by 1 percent in the fourth quarter due in part to ongoing political unrest in Hong Kong. In a presentation with analysts, Chief Executive Bernard Arnault said 2020 is likely to bring further disruptions. Key takeaways include that Tiffany is tasked with doubling in the next decade, and Hedi Slimane’ s Celine and Fenty are off to a slow start.
Canadian brands hope to cash in on the “ Meghan Effect. ” Experts speculate that the Sussexes’ move to North America could bolster the country’ s fashion industry by spotlighting homegrown labels. Canada could boost its C $ 30.6 billion ( $ 23.3 billion) fashion industry, experts say, which is particularly welcome after a recent 2.1 percent decline in local retail sales of clothing and accessories.
Levi's shuts half its China stores on coronavirus outbreak. The American denim label, which gets about 3 percent of its revenue from China, will take a near-term financial hit as a result of the epidemic. This comes a few months after Levi's opened its largest store in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic which has killed about 170 people, marring its plans to tap into the city's 11 million-strong population.
Report: L Brands chief executive in talks to step aside and sell Victoria's Secret. The move comes as the nearly $ 6 billion company faced slumping sales at the lingerie giant for at least four quarters. L Brands has tried to update the marketing strategy for Victoria’ s Secret and cancelled its annual fashion show late last year after accusations of cultural appropriation, objectification of women and a lack of diversity on the runway.
Ferragamo's annual sales increased for the first time since 2015. The 1.3 percent year-over-year rise in 2019 is a sign that a turnaround plan under Chief Executive Micaela Le Divelec is starting to bear fruit. A former Gucci executive, Le Divelec started as chief executive at Ferragamo 18 months ago and has been working to rejuvenate the brand by investing in new products and digital marketing.
Swatch group braces for Hong Kong slump. The Swiss watchmaker's sales took a hit, dropping 2.7 percent to 8.24 billion francs ( around $ 8.5 billion). Swiss watch sales have underperformed other luxury goods as political protests shook Hong Kong. Smartwatches have also taken market share from similarly priced Swiss watches. Changes in distribution also took their toll.
THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTY
LVMH Luxury Ventures is an investor in Versed, a `` clean '' skincare brand | Source: Courtesy
LVMH invests in Versed, a “ clean ” beauty brand. Versed recently closed an $ 11 million Series A, becoming a fast-growing mass label with most products priced at or below $ 17.99, and some under $ 10. At just eight months old, Versed is the youngest and least “ luxe ” company in the fund’ s portfolio, which also includes sneaker reseller Stadium Goods, Gabriela Hearst’ s luxury label and French beauty brand L'Officine Universelle Buly.
Estée Lauder announced leadership shakeup. Estée Lauder Companies has made a number of internal appointments across its brand portfolio, promoting Justin Boxford to global brand president, La Mer; Philippe Pinatel to global brand president, MAC Cosmetics; Deborah Royer to global brand president and chief creative officer, Le Labo; and Christopher Wood to president, North Asia for Dr Jart+ and Do The Right Thing.
PEOPLE
Karl-Johan Persson | Source: H & M Media Gallery
H & M chief executive steps down amid reshuffle. H & M President and Chief Executive Karl-Johan Persson is stepping down to succeed his father, Stefan Persson, as chairman. Helena Helmersson, previously chief operating officer at the Swedish retailer, replaces Persson as the company’ s first female chief executive as of January 30. She is also the first non-family member to assume the role at the company.
J.Crew names former Victoria's Secret head Jan Singer chief executive. The seasoned executive's appointment is the result of a search that took more than a year. J.Crew sales have plunged in recent years, and the brand is planning a spinoff of the more-successful Madewell. Before her time in the top job at Victoria's Secret, Singer was chief executive of the women's shapewear brand Spanx, and previously worked at Nike for over a decade. She will join J.Crew on February 2.
Levi’ s adds Apple data scientist to board of directors. Levi Strauss & Co. has appointed Yael Garten, director of Siri data science and engineering for Apple, to its board of directors. Garten is also an advisory board member at Northwestern University.
MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY
Farfetch gets $ 250 million investment from Tencent and Dragoneer. The luxury online marketplace says it will use the money to expand in China as it looks to reach profitability. Farfetch is competing in a crowded market for luxury e-commerce, facing off with Net-a-Porter, MatchesFashion and potentially Amazon. Some analysts and investors are sceptical of Farfetch’ s growth plans, as the company has made a series of unexpected acquisitions and has yet to turn a profit.
H & M says data protection breaches are unacceptable. The company is cooperating with the local data protection supervisory authority in its investigation into security breaches found at its German unit. It has been reported that H & M collected information on illnesses and other personal circumstances of employees at the H & M Customer Centre for Germany and Austria.
UPS to double down on weekend deliveries. The package carrier aims to keep pace with Amazon, which itself delivered 3.5 billion packages globally last year. The average volume of overall US weekend deliveries doubled to 13.5 million units between 2013 to 2019 as online sales surged 127 percent to almost $ 591 billion in 2019. As a result, UPS added Sunday to its weekend services at the start of this year.
BoF Professional is your competitive advantage in a fast-changing fashion industry. Missed some BoF Professional exclusive features? Click here to browse the archive.
Unpacking Tiffany’ s Contentious New Ad Campaign | business |
The Luxury Watch Business Is in Trouble. Top Makers Have Some Solutions. | Intelligence
From rental programmes to suped-up repair services, the industry’ s leaders are working hard to get more profit out of fewer sales.
Intelligence
From rental programmes to suped-up repair services, the industry’ s leaders are working hard to get more profit out of fewer sales.
PARIS, France — Hard luxury purveyor Cartier’ s latest addition to its watch stable isn’ t a shiny, new, diamond-encrusted model meant to woo top-spending customers. Instead, it’ s a suped-up service for watches they already own.Cartier Care offers clients the expected support — strap changes, maintenance work, personalisation — as well as the unexpected, including warranty extensions, watch buy-back offers, discounts on future purchases and even the opportunity to borrow timepieces for a limited time.The programme is “ an example of how we provide our clients with surprising, compelling and relevant experiences, ” said Arnaud Carrez, marketing, communication and clients services director at Cartier International.Yet, coming from the company that invented the business of modern men’ s wristwatches as we know it — wristwatches used to only be worn by women until 1904, when Cartier created the first design for men, who previously favoured pocket watches — the programme signals a shift of focus in the industry, from selling new timepieces to adding value to future and existing ones as sales of new watches continue to be challenged across the globe.Cartier isn’ t the only brand thinking this way. Watchmaker Panerai, which is, like Cartier, owned by Swiss luxury conglomerate Richemont, recently launched Pam.Guard, which offers warranty extensions up to eight years, a personalised newsletter and reminder for maintenance work. LVMH-owned Hublot has the Hublotista platform, which enables clients to book specialised visits to the Hublot factory in addition to expected routine services, and independent Swiss watchmaker Audemars Piguet opened the AP House in London, wrapping its service in a plush private club.The hope is that all the extra effort will result in a longer relationship with customers, and make them appreciate the value of a watch amid uncertain times. While Switzerland exported 1.66 million high-end watches ( those priced over roughly $ 3,000) in 2019, up from 488,000 in 2000, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, the overall market for Swiss watches is shrinking. Switzerland exported 23.74 million timepieces in 2018, down 20 percent from 29.66 million in 2000.Switzerland exported 23.74 million timepieces in 2018, down 20 percent from 29.66 million in 2000.While the luxury watch market was valued at €39 billion in 2019, according to Bain & Company — almost double the size of branded fine jewellery, which hit €21 billion — the industry has been navigating troubled waters since 2015, when the Chinese government started its clampdown on gifted — and corruption-fuelling — watches. Richemont’ s sales of watches declined by 15 percent in that fiscal year, but soon began to recover. Now, new problems are developing. Student protests in Hong Kong, which began last summer, shook one of the industry’ s pillar markets. Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong posted a sharp decline of 26.7 percent in November 2019 vs 2018, following a 29.7 percent year-over-year drop in October. Now, the coronavirus is affecting the Lunar New Year’ s gifting season. Bezel fitting | Source: Hublot Globally, the consumer’ s fundamental relationship with watches is changing. Not only is a timepiece wholly unnecessary in our connected age, but in many cases it has been entirely replaced by a computer. Apple’ s sales of “ wearables, home and accessories, ” including AirPods, the HomePod and the Apple Watch, were $ 24.5 billion in 2019, and research firm Strategy Analytics calculated that the Apple Watch owned 51 percent share of the record 18 million smartwatches shipped in the last quarter of 2018.Plus, there’ s the third-party seller problem. Unlike jewellery, which is typically exclusively sold through the brand’ s own boutiques, luxury watches are also sold in watch-dedicated stores such as Watches of Switzerland or Bucherer that have developed services of their own.Brands have little control over these retailers and in 2018, Richemont’ s profits were hit by the €200 million spent on buying back watches to protect them from discounted sales on the grey market. It’ s no coincidence that, in the same year, Richemont acquired Watchfinder, a watch resale company that the Swiss conglomerate has cleverly woven into the business of its brands. The second-hand luxury market grew at a rate of 7-10 percent in 2018, according to an estimate from Berenberg Bank, compared to a just 3-4 percent increase in the luxury market overall.So, how are brands adapting to the new normal? “ Watch brands are finally realising how important it is to have direct contact with the final clients, ” said Federica Levato, a partner at Bain & Company in Milan.Watch brands are finally realising how important it is to have direct contact with the final clients.Changing straps and servicing watches is not big news. The novelty here is the speed of delivery, which luxury watchmakers guarantee with newly created service centres around the world. ( In the past, it could take months to repair a watch because it had to go all the way back to the manufacturer’ s headquarters.) The constant connection may not boost profits on individual pieces, but they allow brands to continue to collect valuable data and to keep timepieces in top condition. ( Unlike in soft luxury, where brands are still pushing back against the secondhand market, watchmakers are realistic about resale.) And for some small, independent houses — which, lacking the means of the big players, have suffered the most from the overall contraction of the business — those routine services do support the top line.For instance, at Linde Werdelin, services now make up 25 percent of sales, up from 10 percent in 2016, when the luxury sports watch specialist pulled out of the wholesale circuit and stopped attending Baselworld, the never-to-be-missed industry trade fair. Co-founder Jorn Werdelin said he has downsized from producing 1,000 watches per year to 100. However, handling sales of new and pre-owned watches himself has resulted in an appreciation of the brand Linde Werdelin on the vintage market. Panerai Year of the Rat Sealand Watch | Source: Courtesy “ Every brand needs to have a healthy secondary market, ” Werdelin said. “ If a model bought five years ago now costs 70 percent of the original price, that’ s fine, but if it’ s only 40 percent of the original price, that’ s a problem. ” Warranty extensions, which are now offered by many of the luxury brands, are meant to help extend the life, and maintain the beauty, of a watch, so that they can keep as much value as possible in the secondary market.With its “ Certified Pre-Owned ” programme, Bucherer buys back watches from its clients, which can be traded for the purchase of a new or pre-owned one. “ With the ever-changing portfolio of our Certified Pre-Owned watches, there is always a good reason for watch lovers to come back to the boutiques and explore what is new, ” said Jörg Baumann, Bucherer’ s chief marketing officer.Today, most of Richemont’ s brands offer to authenticate and buy back their watches, which are then sold through Watchfinder. “ Clients are interested in the investment value of a luxury watch, ” said Jean-Marc Pontroué, chief executive of Panerai, who compares the watch business to that of cars, one of the first industries to take control of its secondary market.At Panerai’ s London boutique, clients can currently sell their old watches to Watchfinder, using the proceeds to purchase new timepieces. Pontroué emphasised that “ luxury is as much in product creativity as in service, ” noting that the value of some Panerai models has appreciated on the vintage market.Every brand needs to have a healthy secondary market.Rental programmers are also increasingly common. Watch rental companies such as Vyrent in the US and Acquired Time in Singapore are spreading fast, although success is not guaranteed: New York-based Eleven James folded in 2018, with watch trade publication Hodinkee reporting that the startup was unable to raise the additional funding it needed to continue.Some brands are doing it themselves. Swiss manufacturer DuBois et Fils offers its shareholders a selection of its models for rent for as little as $ 82 a month.Renting is often the entryway to owning, as prospective buyers can “ test-drive ” a watch before committing to a purchase — exactly as they would do with a car. While Cartier’ s courtesy loan service feels new — and a little bit risky — it’ s a time-honoured tradition. Pierre Cartier, grandson of Cartier’ s founder Louis-François Cartier, pioneered the concept to help sell important jewels, including the famous Hope diamond, at the beginning of the twentieth century.One by one, these services may look like small experiments. However, together they are poised to reshape the whole industry. Someday, watch houses may seemingly never actually sell a watch, but merely look after it for the next buyer.Related Articles: Can Baselworld Catch Up With the Times? The Future of WatchesInside LVMH’ s Watch Week 2020
Cartier Care offers clients the expected support — strap changes, maintenance work, personalisation — as well as the unexpected, including warranty extensions, watch buy-back offers, discounts on future purchases and even the opportunity to borrow timepieces for a limited time.
The programme is “ an example of how we provide our clients with surprising, compelling and relevant experiences, ” said Arnaud Carrez, marketing, communication and clients services director at Cartier International.
Yet, coming from the company that invented the business of modern men’ s wristwatches as we know it — wristwatches used to only be worn by women until 1904, when Cartier created the first design for men, who previously favoured pocket watches — the programme signals a shift of focus in the industry, from selling new timepieces to adding value to future and existing ones as sales of new watches continue to be challenged across the globe.
Cartier isn’ t the only brand thinking this way. Watchmaker Panerai, which is, like Cartier, owned by Swiss luxury conglomerate Richemont, recently launched Pam.Guard, which offers warranty extensions up to eight years, a personalised newsletter and reminder for maintenance work. LVMH-owned Hublot has the Hublotista platform, which enables clients to book specialised visits to the Hublot factory in addition to expected routine services, and independent Swiss watchmaker Audemars Piguet opened the AP House in London, wrapping its service in a plush private club.
The hope is that all the extra effort will result in a longer relationship with customers, and make them appreciate the value of a watch amid uncertain times. While Switzerland exported 1.66 million high-end watches ( those priced over roughly $ 3,000) in 2019, up from 488,000 in 2000, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, the overall market for Swiss watches is shrinking. Switzerland exported 23.74 million timepieces in 2018, down 20 percent from 29.66 million in 2000.
Switzerland exported 23.74 million timepieces in 2018, down 20 percent from 29.66 million in 2000.
While the luxury watch market was valued at €39 billion in 2019, according to Bain & Company — almost double the size of branded fine jewellery, which hit €21 billion — the industry has been navigating troubled waters since 2015, when the Chinese government started its clampdown on gifted — and corruption-fuelling — watches. Richemont’ s sales of watches declined by 15 percent in that fiscal year, but soon began to recover. Now, new problems are developing. Student protests in Hong Kong, which began last summer, shook one of the industry’ s pillar markets. Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong posted a sharp decline of 26.7 percent in November 2019 vs 2018, following a 29.7 percent year-over-year drop in October. Now, the coronavirus is affecting the Lunar New Year’ s gifting season.
Bezel fitting | Source: Hublot
Globally, the consumer’ s fundamental relationship with watches is changing. Not only is a timepiece wholly unnecessary in our connected age, but in many cases it has been entirely replaced by a computer. Apple’ s sales of “ wearables, home and accessories, ” including AirPods, the HomePod and the Apple Watch, were $ 24.5 billion in 2019, and research firm Strategy Analytics calculated that the Apple Watch owned 51 percent share of the record 18 million smartwatches shipped in the last quarter of 2018.
Plus, there’ s the third-party seller problem. Unlike jewellery, which is typically exclusively sold through the brand’ s own boutiques, luxury watches are also sold in watch-dedicated stores such as Watches of Switzerland or Bucherer that have developed services of their own.
Brands have little control over these retailers and in 2018, Richemont’ s profits were hit by the €200 million spent on buying back watches to protect them from discounted sales on the grey market. It’ s no coincidence that, in the same year, Richemont acquired Watchfinder, a watch resale company that the Swiss conglomerate has cleverly woven into the business of its brands. The second-hand luxury market grew at a rate of 7-10 percent in 2018, according to an estimate from Berenberg Bank, compared to a just 3-4 percent increase in the luxury market overall.
So, how are brands adapting to the new normal? “ Watch brands are finally realising how important it is to have direct contact with the final clients, ” said Federica Levato, a partner at Bain & Company in Milan.
Watch brands are finally realising how important it is to have direct contact with the final clients.
Changing straps and servicing watches is not big news. The novelty here is the speed of delivery, which luxury watchmakers guarantee with newly created service centres around the world. ( In the past, it could take months to repair a watch because it had to go all the way back to the manufacturer’ s headquarters.)
The constant connection may not boost profits on individual pieces, but they allow brands to continue to collect valuable data and to keep timepieces in top condition. ( Unlike in soft luxury, where brands are still pushing back against the secondhand market, watchmakers are realistic about resale.)
And for some small, independent houses — which, lacking the means of the big players, have suffered the most from the overall contraction of the business — those routine services do support the top line.
For instance, at Linde Werdelin, services now make up 25 percent of sales, up from 10 percent in 2016, when the luxury sports watch specialist pulled out of the wholesale circuit and stopped attending Baselworld, the never-to-be-missed industry trade fair. Co-founder Jorn Werdelin said he has downsized from producing 1,000 watches per year to 100. However, handling sales of new and pre-owned watches himself has resulted in an appreciation of the brand Linde Werdelin on the vintage market.
Panerai Year of the Rat Sealand Watch | Source: Courtesy
“ Every brand needs to have a healthy secondary market, ” Werdelin said. “ If a model bought five years ago now costs 70 percent of the original price, that’ s fine, but if it’ s only 40 percent of the original price, that’ s a problem. ”
Warranty extensions, which are now offered by many of the luxury brands, are meant to help extend the life, and maintain the beauty, of a watch, so that they can keep as much value as possible in the secondary market.
With its “ Certified Pre-Owned ” programme, Bucherer buys back watches from its clients, which can be traded for the purchase of a new or pre-owned one. “ With the ever-changing portfolio of our Certified Pre-Owned watches, there is always a good reason for watch lovers to come back to the boutiques and explore what is new, ” said Jörg Baumann, Bucherer’ s chief marketing officer.
Today, most of Richemont’ s brands offer to authenticate and buy back their watches, which are then sold through Watchfinder.
“ Clients are interested in the investment value of a luxury watch, ” said Jean-Marc Pontroué, chief executive of Panerai, who compares the watch business to that of cars, one of the first industries to take control of its secondary market.
At Panerai’ s London boutique, clients can currently sell their old watches to Watchfinder, using the proceeds to purchase new timepieces. Pontroué emphasised that “ luxury is as much in product creativity as in service, ” noting that the value of some Panerai models has appreciated on the vintage market.
Every brand needs to have a healthy secondary market.
Rental programmers are also increasingly common. Watch rental companies such as Vyrent in the US and Acquired Time in Singapore are spreading fast, although success is not guaranteed: New York-based Eleven James folded in 2018, with watch trade publication Hodinkee reporting that the startup was unable to raise the additional funding it needed to continue.
Some brands are doing it themselves. Swiss manufacturer DuBois et Fils offers its shareholders a selection of its models for rent for as little as $ 82 a month.
Renting is often the entryway to owning, as prospective buyers can “ test-drive ” a watch before committing to a purchase — exactly as they would do with a car. While Cartier’ s courtesy loan service feels new — and a little bit risky — it’ s a time-honoured tradition. Pierre Cartier, grandson of Cartier’ s founder Louis-François Cartier, pioneered the concept to help sell important jewels, including the famous Hope diamond, at the beginning of the twentieth century.
One by one, these services may look like small experiments. However, together they are poised to reshape the whole industry. Someday, watch houses may seemingly never actually sell a watch, but merely look after it for the next buyer.
Related Articles:
Can Baselworld Catch Up With the Times?
The Future of Watches
Inside LVMH’ s Watch Week 2020
Unpacking Tiffany’ s Contentious New Ad Campaign | business |
Levi's Shuts Half Its China Stores on Coronavirus Outbreak | News & Analysis
The American denim label, which gets about 3 percent of its revenue from China, will take a near-term financial hit as a result of the epidemic.
SHANGHAI, China — Levi Strauss & Co. has shut about half of its stores in China due to the outbreak of a new coronavirus and will take a near-term financial hit as a result of the epidemic, Chief Financial Officer Harmit Singh said on Thursday.This comes a few months after Levi's opened its largest store in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic which has killed about 170 people, marring its plans to tap into the city's 11 million-strong population. `` It will put a dampener on our growth objectives in the near term, '' Singh told Reuters in an interview.The flu-like virus has set off alarm bells across the globe with companies such as Starbucks Corp. closing stores and warning of a financial hit from slowing business in the world's most populous country.Levi's has also stopped all employee travel in and out of China.Singh said the coronavirus impact was not baked into the company's full-year forecast, but will be quantified when it reports first quarter results in April.Levi's, which gets about 3 percent of its revenue from China, forecast 2020 earnings on Thursday above estimates, boosted by demand for women's apparel in its own stores and online.With foot traffic at malls and department stores shrinking, Levi's has been investing more in its e-commerce business, adding features designed to attract Millennial and Gen-Z consumers.A new customisation option on Levi's website lets shoppers personalise their pair of jeans with custom prints and patches, helping the near-170-year-old company pull in more customers looking to add a personal touch to their denim.The company, however, missed fourth-quarter revenue estimates, hurt by plunging sales at department stores and protests in Hong Kong which dented demand in the Asian shopping hub.Fourth quarter net revenue fell 1.4 percent to $ 1.57 billion, compared with analysts ' estimates of $ 1.58 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.Adjusted net income fell 9 percent to $ 108 million, or 26 cents per share, in the quarter ended November 24.The company forecast adjusted 2020 profit of $ 1.18 per share to $ 1.22 per share above Wall Street estimates of $ 1.17.By Aditi Sebastian and Uday Sampath; editor: Shinjini Ganguli.
This comes a few months after Levi's opened its largest store in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic which has killed about 170 people, marring its plans to tap into the city's 11 million-strong population.
`` It will put a dampener on our growth objectives in the near term, '' Singh told Reuters in an interview.
The flu-like virus has set off alarm bells across the globe with companies such as Starbucks Corp. closing stores and warning of a financial hit from slowing business in the world's most populous country.
Levi's has also stopped all employee travel in and out of China.
Singh said the coronavirus impact was not baked into the company's full-year forecast, but will be quantified when it reports first quarter results in April.
Levi's, which gets about 3 percent of its revenue from China, forecast 2020 earnings on Thursday above estimates, boosted by demand for women's apparel in its own stores and online.
With foot traffic at malls and department stores shrinking, Levi's has been investing more in its e-commerce business, adding features designed to attract Millennial and Gen-Z consumers.
A new customisation option on Levi's website lets shoppers personalise their pair of jeans with custom prints and patches, helping the near-170-year-old company pull in more customers looking to add a personal touch to their denim.
The company, however, missed fourth-quarter revenue estimates, hurt by plunging sales at department stores and protests in Hong Kong which dented demand in the Asian shopping hub.
Fourth quarter net revenue fell 1.4 percent to $ 1.57 billion, compared with analysts ' estimates of $ 1.58 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Adjusted net income fell 9 percent to $ 108 million, or 26 cents per share, in the quarter ended November 24.
The company forecast adjusted 2020 profit of $ 1.18 per share to $ 1.22 per share above Wall Street estimates of $ 1.17.
By Aditi Sebastian and Uday Sampath; editor: Shinjini Ganguli.
Unpacking Tiffany’ s Contentious New Ad Campaign | business |
Despite growth in dairy, industry execs strike a cautious tone | Leaders from Danone and Lactalis were among those who said not enough is being done to promote their work on sustainability or the nutritional benefits of their products.
SCOTTSDALE, Arizona — Executives from North America's top dairy companies struck a surprising sense of urgency Wednesday that the industry isn't doing enough to promote the work it's doing to help farmers and the environment or to tout the nutritional benefits of its products as consumers abandon milk or shift to plant-based alternatives.
`` What is our response? What are we doing about it? '' Lino Saputo, Jr., CEO of Saputo, a maker of cheese and other dairy products, said on a panel at the International Dairy Foods Association's annual forum. `` Leaders have to stand up and make a difference for the survival of the industry. ''
Michael Dykes, president and CEO of IDFA, whose organization represents 550 companies in the industry, said its members need to take a bold course of action that may rattle those who are used to doing things a certain way. He noted that transparency and details about the industry's efforts to protect the environment and improve animal welfare are `` going to come under greater and greater scrutiny. ''
`` I think the changes we are going to need to make, I don't know if our organizations are going to be comfortable with, '' Dykes told the audience. `` What we maybe need to start with is a clean peace of paper and think differently. ''
The comments were a stark contrast from an otherwise upbeat tone struck at the industry's annual four-day gathering in Arizona where dairy farmers, processors and product manufactures expressed a bullish outlook for the multi-billion dollar category.
Despite ongoing challenges facing milk, a gloomy picture underscored by the recent bankruptcies of Dean Foods and Borden Dairy, overall consumption in the dairy space is higher than it's ever been. Per capita dairy consumption increased from 539 pounds in 1975 to 646 pounds in 2018, due in large part to the growing popularity of yogurt, butter and cheese, according to data from the USDA. Even certain segments within milk, including whole and flavored fat-reduced varieties, have risen in recent years.
`` We should all feel bullish about dairy. It's a $ 60 billion category that's performing at record levels, '' Ron Dunford, president and CEO of Schreiber Foods, a manufacturer of cheese, yogurt and cream cheese, told those attending the forum.
The underlying concern, executives said, is that while dairy is beset with a slew of trendy attributes important to consumers, not enough is being done to promote them, which could help draw people back to the category or boost consumption among existing users. The debate is how to best go about doing that.
The panelists noted that dairy products are loaded with protein, calcium and vitamins. They also promote the feeling of freshness, can be consumed during different parts of the day and are compatible with snacking. All these factors give the segment an arsenal of ways to promote itself — especially with millennials and Gen Zers who are increasingly abandoning milk, the iconic beverage that has come to define the category.
`` Our biggest mission that we have together is to regenerate excitement of milk '' among younger generations who may not be aware of its nutritional benefits, Thierry Clement, CEO of Lactalis North America, the maker of Siggi's and Stonyfield yogurts said. `` Milk is an incredible product by itself. ''
Clement and others said the industry's success also is dependent on more than just its products.
They said its members should do more to publicly promote the steps they are taking to help the environment when it comes to sustainability and to assist producers in rural America, many of whom have fallen on hard times. This week alone, Danone North America made a pair of announcements on the work it's doing with producers on regenerative or organic farming and to improve the economic resiliency and soil health of farms.
The panelists said consumers are pressuring food and beverage companies to be more upfront about where the products they purchase come from, the ingredients that go into them and whether the values they have are being reflected by corporations in their day-to-day operations.
In addition, dairy is under pressure as more consumers turn to plant-based options in milks and yogurts that are made from oats, almonds, coconut and soy. About 44% of milk-consuming Americans are purchasing both dairy and plant-based milk, according to a survey in 2018 by Dairy Management Inc. Retail headwinds also are weighing on the industry. Companies such as Walmart, Kroger and Albertsons have started processing their own milk, allowing them to offer cheaper options and reducing the shelf space for branded milk items.
`` Never in history have we been challenged by so many angles, '' said Mariano Lozano, president and CEO of Danone North America. `` That is a massive amount of change from the consumer point of view. ''
The executives offered a handful of broad-stroke ideas on how to improve the perception consumers have of the industry without agreeing on the best path forward to do it.
Dunford from Schreiber said dairy groups must work closer together and promote their message in a `` unified voice. '' Saputo said more needs to be done to promote what the industry is doing when it comes to sustainability efforts such as waste, water usage or packaging. Dykes at IDFA said the industry needs to step up its transparency and work closer with its critics.
`` The biggest threat we have in our industry is misinformation, '' Saputo said. `` We have a great product... but we're not talking about it enough and we're allowing the narrative to be told by people who are not scientists. To me, that's our biggest threat and where leaders in the industry have to stand up and start taking action. ''
Follow Christopher Doering on Twitter
With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach.
Subscribe to Food Dive to get the must-read news & insights in your inbox.
Topics covered: manufacturing, packaging, new products, R & D, and much more.
Discover announcements from companies in your industry.
With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation. | general |
Operations, trade flows halt as coronavirus spreads | One of the biggest impacts for businesses importing goods from, or exporting goods out of, China is the extended production stoppage as the government extending the Lunar New Year holidays to Feb. 2. Some regions are extending the break even further into February Woitzik and Yu explained in an email to Supply Chain Dive.
The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated China's gross domestic product could grow at 5.9% in 2020, but the outbreak could drop that measure by 0.5 to 1 percentage points, according to a report from Coresight Research.
Carriers have canceled their service to The Port of Wuhan, and other ports along the Yangtze River have experienced congestion as the quarantine impacts barge traffic, Woitzik and Yu said.
This halt in operations has resulted in empty containers piling up in China, according to data from xChange, a startup that deals with repositioning empty shipping containers.
`` For shipping lines, such events lower utilization rates and result in higher costs on routes '' as companies worry about getting employees to work at manufacturing facilities during the quarantine, xChange said, according to World Maritime News.
A Honda supplier, Ftech, announced it is shifting some production from China to the Philippines to avoid disruption from the coronavirus. It plans to move back to China when possible, a company source told Nikkei Asian Review.
But some food manufacturers will soon reopen as the Chinese government needs to ensure there is food available, Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey said Thursday on the company's fourth quarter earnings call.
`` So we, under the auspices of the Chinese government and their kind of crisis management, [ are ] reopening some of our manufacturing facilities to make sure we continue to produce our product for the population and get it distributed in a way that’ s not going to... be part of the spread, '' Quincey said, according to a transcript of the call.
The WHO announcement likely won't have much of an impact on companies operating in the region, Woitzik and Yu said.
`` From an international standpoint though, it may trigger more flight cancellations, border closures, production delays, self-imposed travel bans from companies preventing their employees from flying to China etc. after the [ Lunar New Year ] holiday break, '' they explained.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
The information the FTC will solicit is at the forefront of supply chain managers ' day-to-day operations, such as the disruptions to obtaining and transporting products.
Biden's signature paves the way for $ 17 billion in port infrastructure and $ 25 billion for airports. Here's what trade associations are saying.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
The information the FTC will solicit is at the forefront of supply chain managers ' day-to-day operations, such as the disruptions to obtaining and transporting products.
Biden's signature paves the way for $ 17 billion in port infrastructure and $ 25 billion for airports. Here's what trade associations are saying.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more. | general |
Coronavirus: how much panic should the world be in? | The spread of the coronavirus has been labelled a health emergency of “ international scale ” by the World Health Organization ( WHO). And yet, the Geneva-based body has not recommended any limiting of travel to and from China. How worried should the world be?
After some years in the regional print and broadcast media in French Switzerland, in 2000 I joined Radio Swiss International, which then became swissinfo.ch. Since then I have been writing ( and producing short videos) on a variety of subjects, from politics to business, and including culture and science.
More from this author | French Department
Why is it called coronavirus?
Because, viewed through a microscope, the virus looks as if it’ s surrounded by a crown ( “ corona ”, in Latin). Officially called 2019-nCoV, the virus is of the same family as SARS ( Severe acute respiratory syndrome), which appeared in China in 2003, and MERS ( Middle East respiratory syndrome), which originated in Saudi Arabia in 2012.
Where does it come from?
It was probably transmitted by an animal – a snake or a bat – to a human at the market in Wuhan. In China, various sorts of meat are eaten that would not be found in western supermarkets. And to guarantee freshness, market sellers often deal in live animals.
How is the virus transmitted?
Like its predecessors, the Wuhan coronavirus can jump from animals to humans, and from humans to humans. It’ s transmitted through contact with an infected animal or person – for example, intimate contact, coughing or sneezing, shared living spaces, or even being face-to-face at a distance of less than a metre.
How dangerous is it?
Two separate factors need to be taken into account here, says Harris Héritier, an epidemiologist: how easily the virus is spread ( very easily, in the case of the 2019-nCoV), and how lethal it is, i.e. what percentage of infected people die. The New England Journal of Medicine has estimated the mortality of the coronavirus to be around 4%. By comparison, this figure was 9.5% for SARS and 34% for MERS.
Are certain groups at risk?
“ We suspect so, but we base this suspicion on what happened with previous epidemics, ” says Héritier. “ Current statistics aren’ t yet enough to say concretely if some groups are more vulnerable than others. It could also be dangerous to speculate, because we saw for example with the Spanish flu that the most vulnerable were those with a higher level of immunity. ”
How much more dangerous is it than seasonal flu?
Each year, flu kills up to 650,000 people around the world, according to WHO estimates. This amounts to just 0.1% of people who contract it. Its mortality is thus quite weak, as was that of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu ( which was also spread from China, despite its name): for that disease, the rate was 2%, though it led to an estimated 50-100 million deaths.
What about the more than 90% of those who contract the disease and don’ t die?
For these people, “ it could look like a flu, but we don’ t know all the possible symptoms, and everyone reacts quite differently, ” says Héritier. “ This means that many of those who had it simply stayed at home, recovered, and never entered the statistics. ” Seen in this light, the actual number of cases is even higher that we know of, which means the mortality rate is even lower.
Is there a cure for 2019-nCoV?
No. For patients infected by a severe form of the disease, doctors try to ensure that they don’ t catch any further infections or respiratory complications. On the other hand, the genetic sequence of the Wuhan virus was detected in record time, and several possible vaccines are being developed in China, the US, and Australia. Given the time needed to do tests, however, these vaccines will probably come too late.
How useful are protective masks?
In Switzerland, where no case has yet been recorded, pharmacies have sold out of these masks, as in other countries. Some are selling them online for jacked-up prices. However, the masks are only really useful for people already ill, to prevent them passing it on to others. As all health authorities, including the WHO, keep saying, the top precaution is to wash your hands, very well.
Is the wave of panic online and among the public justified?
From the medieval plague to Ebola, humans have always been terrified of plagues that threaten to wipe us all out. And from Hieronymus Bosch to Stephen King, not to mention the various creators of apocalyptic books, films, and series, humans have also always liked to dramatise the threat, like children who get a kick from scaring themselves.
The last overview by the WHO ( on January 31) outlined 9,826 confirmed cases in the world, and 213 deaths – all of these in China. In newsrooms, including that of swissinfo.ch, the question is always there: caught between a responsibility to inform and the risk of causing undue panic, how much importance should we give to such news? On social media, in contrast, disinformation and hysteria abound, often without any such reflection.
SARS disappeared after one year, having caused 800 deaths; MERS is still at large and has to date led to 838 fatalities. | general |
Asian jet fuel crack spreads may crash toward $ 5/b as regional airlines cut back China routes | In this week’ s highlights: Prospects of a modest oil price recovery in the coming months are growing...
Singapore — Jet fuel refining margins may succumb to more downside pressure in Asia, with Singapore crack spreads against Dubai crude expected to test the $ 5/b mark over the next few trading cycles as Asian airlines suspend multiple flight routes in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
Получайте ежедневные электронные уведомления и заметки для подписчиков и персонализируйте свои материалы.
Both physical and paper jet fuel cracks against Platts Dubai crude benchmark tumbled below the psychological support level of $ 10/b this week as aviation fuel demand continues to slide in line with the growing number of flight cancellations and suspensions.
The FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene crack against front-month cash Dubai crude plunged to $ 8.95/b Thursday. At this level, the crack spread was just 4 cents/b shy of a 42-month low, Platts data showed.
In the derivative market, the front-month February Singapore jet fuel swap against Dubai swap -- which measures the relative value of the product to crude oil -- fell to $ 9.70/b at Thursday's Asian close, the lowest level in almost 32 months. The last time it was assessed lower was June 7, 2016, at $ 9.32/b, Platts data showed.
The crack spreads are unlikely to stage a meaningful recovery any time soon as regional airlines could cut back more flight routes as the coronavirus continues to spread, with more than 9,600 cases confirmed and the death toll in China alone above 200 as of Thursday.
Vietnam's national flag carrier Vietnam Airlines was reported to have suspended 70% of its flights to China.
In South Korea, two of the country's major airlines were quick to suspend various China-bound flight routes, further painting a bleak picture for Asia's aviation demand outlook. Korean Air, the nation's top flag carrier, has suspended all flights to Wuhan since January 23. The airline `` is under discussions as to whether to suspend its flights to other Chinese cities, '' a company official told S & P Global Platts this week.
Asiana Airlines, South Korea's No. 2 carrier, also told Platts it has suspended flights to Chinese cities Guilin, Changsha and Haikou due to the conoravirus.
In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific has reduced its flight capacity to and from China by 50% or more from January 30 to end March, while Cathay Dragon flights to and from Wuhan have been suspended until March 31.
Hong Kong Airlines said it was scaling back flights to China and canceling flights to smaller cities like Hang Zhou, Tianjin, Chendu, Chongqing and Guiyang. Other affected destinations include Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong.
Asiana Airlines will decide whether to extend flight suspensions depending on circumstances and the progress of the virus spread in China, a company official said. Flights to China account for 19% of its total revenue.
Apart from the region's major airlines, many budget carriers have also announced either cancellations or full suspension of China-bound flight services, adding to pressure on jet fuel demand and refining margins.
The crack spreads could test the $ 5/b mark over the next couple of months as more Asian carriers cut back on China-bound and other flight routes, according to multiple refinery and trading sources across China, South Korea and Japan.
`` The Wuhan virus is having a deadly impact on the aviation industry; many flights have been canceled as a result and many people would be afraid to travel to China for sure, '' a North Asian refinery source said.
Singapore Airline's low-cost carrier Scoot will suspend flights to multiple cities in China until end March and cut back on its number of daily flights to eight other Chinese destinations, the budget carrier said on its social media notice.
Scoot will suspend flights between Singapore and Harbin, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Xi'an, Changsha, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Ningbo, Jinan, Nanning and Wuxi, the company said on Facebook.
Vietnam's Ministry of Transport said the country's top private carrier Vietjet will suspend all of its flights to China from Saturday.
South Korea's low-cost carrier Jeju Air told Platts earlier this week it has suspended six of its 12 flight routes to China. The country's other low-cost carriers T'Way Air and Air Seoul have also suspended most of their flights to Chinese cities, including Wuhan.
Это можно сделать бесплатно и легко. Воспользуйтесь кнопкой внизу. Мы вернем вас сюда по завершении. | business |
Help or hindrance? How Chinese politics affected coronavirus response | When Wuhan’ s mayor took to live national television to discuss the rapidly escalating outbreak of coronavirus in his city, he came primed for a rare – and very prolonged – display of self criticism.
Over nearly an hour Zhou Xianwang said his work “ wasn’ t performed well enough ”, that the city government had failed to provide timely information or act on what it knew, and offered his own resignation, although it is yet to be accepted.
For once, the official position matched the complaints of many people on the ground in Wuhan, who had been stewing for weeks about official failings they feared had turbo-charged the epidemic just when it should have been easiest to contain.
His city of 11 million people, famous inside China for everything from ancient poetry to a very political swim by Mao Zedong, was less well known abroad until 23 January, when plans were announced to seal it off in an unprecedented mass quarantine.
China soon won international plaudits for a huge mobilisation, including the near impossible feat of building two new hospitals in as many weeks, even as Wuhan became an international byword for a new epidemic.
Yet, as information about the early days of the outbreak has slowly filtered out of China, it has become increasingly clear that the same political system that allowed Beijing to order such a dramatic response, also initially allowed the virus to fester.
The country’ s authoritarian bureaucracy offers officials few incentives to be proactive, and many to attempt to hide emerging crises, said Prof Sam Crane, the chair of Asian studies at Williams College, Massachusetts.
“ If we consider not only Sars in 2003 but also large-scale disasters like the Songhua River contamination in 2005 and the Wenzhou train crash in 2011, and we could add other incidents, we see a pattern of denial and cover-up and evasion on the part of local leaders, ” he said.
“ [ They are ] afraid of being associated with ‘ problems’ that could reflect badly on their personal careers and create headaches for higher level leaders. ”
When the coronavirus first emerged in Wuhan, its scale and lethality were uncertain. A high-profile public campaign on disease control risked highlighting failures that allowed a new disease to emerge at all, and denting the economy, while the threats from the disease itself were far more nebulous.
So during the crucial early days of the outbreak, local officials seemed at least as concerned about covering up the outbreak as they were about halting any spread.
People who posted about the mystery new illness were arrested for “ spreading false news ”; patients who turned up at hospitals with typical symptoms and links to the wildlife market at the centre of the outbreak said they were not tested for the disease.
By 10 January, China had identified the new coronavirus, made its genome public and created testing kits. Yet between 3 and 16 January, authorities in Wuhan claimed there were no new cases, and no evidence of human-to-human transmission, key drivers of any new epidemic.
The systems that might provide a check on corrupt officials or efforts to bury bad news in other countries, from a free press to local charities and activists, do not do so in China.
During his eight years in power President Xi Jinping has dramatically reduced the already narrow space for civil society.
Even the “ back channels ” of information that are meant to keep the leadership properly informed about events nationwide, while official media churns out propaganda, have reportedly been drying up under Xi.
Crane said: “ After the initial period of typical local level evasion and bungling, the response this time has been faster and more transparent than Sars in 2003. But that is probably due to better medical science infrastructure. Xi Jinping’ s governing style has done nothing, really, to change the systemic problems.
“ Indeed, he might be making them worse, insofar as information is subject to political control and many local cadres now live in fear of being called out for corruption and thus more likely to hide problems. ”
Zhou, the Wuhan mayor, even made an apparent allusion to systemic problems, with a subtle but pointed dig at the central government. His hands were tied, he said, by laws that barred him from declaring an epidemic without permission.
It is not clear yet if efforts which seized headlines worldwide will be enough to halt the spread of a disease which has now infected more people in China over two months than Sars did over nine months.
“ They will take these draconian measures not for health benefits but for the political benefits of seeming to be in control, ” said Jorge Guajardo, who served as Mexico’ s ambassador to Beijing during the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, or swine flu.
Reports from Wuhan of shortages of basic equipment, such as masks and gowns, are a reminder that government logistics are far from infallible. Details are still unclear as to exactly where the disease originated, when the first cases emerged and when the numbers of those infected will stop growing exponentially.
When the crisis ends there may be a leadership shakeup in Wuhan, in Hubei province and perhaps among health officials beyond that.
The first head has already rolled, with the health chief of Huanggang city being removed from her post after a TV interview, in which she struggled to answer basic questions about the virus response, went viral.
But any changes will be to protect the system and the central leadership in response to fallout from the crisis, not to shake it up.
Xi, who has built up something of a personality cult, appears to have taken a finely balanced public approach. State media has shown him in control but not the sole political face of a government campaign whose results are still uncertain. | general |
Coronavirus fears sends jitters across Asia Pacific crude market following record premiums | While diplomatic talks between the US and Russia continue, questions are raised about what...
The offer price of carbon credits issued by renewable energy projects certified under the second...
The Dubai Electricity & Water Authority said Feb. 3 that it will convert its 2,400 MW Hassyan `` clean...
Offer price of 2013+ CDM certified renewable credits above $ 4.00/mtCO2e
The start of the year sees new record premiums for Asia-Pacific crude with IMO 2020 kicking in, and amid fewer supply from Libya. But sentiment in the market could be weighed down by the coronavirus outbreak gripping commodity markets. S & P Global Platts Asia-Pacific crude oil market experts Jeslyn Lerh, Andrew Toh and Ada Taib examine the market.
To continue reading you must login or register with us.
It’ s free and easy to do. Please use the button below and we will bring you back here when complete. | business |
Why shutting down Chinese ‘ wet markets’ could be a terrible mistake | In late 2019, a new coronavirus – now formally known as Covid-19 – emerged in the city of Wuhan, China. Despite a quarantine established by Chinese authorities, it subsequently spread to South Korea and Japan, and then Iran and Italy. So far, at least 80,000 people have been infected, with nearly 2,700 deaths.
As anthropologists who have worked for a long time on diseases that spread from animals to humans ( zoonotic diseases) in China, our research can provide insights into the unfolding crisis. It is highly probable that this new form of coronavirus, which causes pneumonia – in some cases lethal – emerged through a zoonotic spillover, a “ jump ” of the virus from non-human animals to humans, in early December 2019. Chinese scientists have traced the potential source of the virus to Wuhan’ s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which 27 of the initial cluster of 41 admitted hospital patients ( but not the first recorded patient) had visited.
The market sold much more than seafood, including a range of wild animals. And scientists suspect that the virus “ jumped ” to humans from one of the wild animal species sold at the market. Contrary to the earlier hypothesis that the virus originated in snakes, current genetic evidence suggests an emergence in bats, which are less frequently sold in Chinese markets, but are widely believed to constitute the animal reservoir of many infectious diseases transmissible to humans. Wuhan closed and disinfected the market on January 1, and China issued a temporary ban on all trade in wild animal products on January 22.
In the wake of the coronavirus epidemic, global media accounts of China’ s live animal markets have themselves gone viral. A New York Times article, for example, consciously described China’ s “ omnivorous ” markets in a way that would be aesthetically unacceptable to its western audience ( whole plucked chickens – with heads and beaks attached), as well as an assortment of wild animals, selected to shock the reader:
“ Live snakes, turtles and cicadas, guinea pigs, bamboo rats, badgers, hedgehogs, otters, palm civets, even wolf cubs. ”
But the focus on exotic food consumption in China often relies on Orientalisation, and is in some cases tinged with anti-Chinese sentiment.
The epidemiological need to be specific about what species the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market actually contained, and in what frequency, is undermined by media reports urging for a permanent ban or abolition of these “ wet markets ”. Such reports often lean heavily on a montage of images from different markets across China with little information on the where and when these were taken, and no acknowledgement of the significant variations in cuisine across different regions of the country.
These images communicate a sense of disgust toward the eating habits of the Chinese and at the same time reflect a fear of the interconnectedness of two types of “ emergence ” in China: viral emergence and economic emergence.
Anthropologists have discussed in some detail how the Chinese model of development ( the economic emergence of China in the 21st century) has been perceived in the West as a threat, both in political and cultural terms: China’ s economic development because of its rapid nature and the competition this might pose to the US or EU economies; and culturally, because reforms seem incompatible with western expectations of modernisation. In short, rather than China adapting to capitalism, capitalism ( in China) is adapting to China.
China’ s food consumption is iconic in this process. While Chinese consumers have embraced supermarkets and pre-packaged foods, China’ s economic development has not led to a demise in Chinese forms of consumption, such as the desire for “ warm meat ”, and has not ushered in European and American cultural norms of what is eatable and what is not.
In western media, “ wet markets ” are portrayed as emblems of Chinese otherness: chaotic versions of oriental bazaars, lawless areas where animals that should not be eaten are sold as food, and where what should not be mingled comes together ( seafood and poultry, serpents and cattle). This fuels Sinophobia and anxieties of what anthropologists have long identified as “ matter out of place ”: a symbolic system of pollution through which proscriptions and prescriptions of what foods or foodstuffs may be combined is held up.
This image is highly flawed, not only because it relies on western sensitivities of what is eatable and what is not, and which portrays a modern form of Chinese food trade and consumption as “ traditional ”, but more practically, because it misrepresents the material and economic reality of these markets.
In reality, most seafood, live animal and wholesale markets in China contain far less exotic fare. An enormous variety of different kinds of market are confusingly lumped within the term “ wet market ”, a term that originated in Hong Kong and Singapore English to distinguish markets selling fresh meat and produce from “ dry ” markets selling packaged and durable goods such as textiles.
Today, several kinds of “ wet markets ” can be distinguished, with differences that are often crucial for accurately assessing the risks they pose for the emergence of viruses: scale ( wholesale or retail), produce ( live animals, only slaughtered meat and fresh vegetables, only live seafood; animals ( domestic only or wild). Where markets do contain what many western media portray as “ wild animals ”, the majority of these are actually bred and farmed in captivity, such as mallard ducks, frogs, or snakes. Only a smaller proportion of animals are actually poached from the wild for sale.
What is perhaps most omitted in the discussion of Chinese wet markets is the perspective of farmers, producers, and vendors. Although media reports often marvel at the consumption of wild animals, little is said about why farmers produce them. As Lyle Fearnley learned during fieldwork research with wild swan goose ( dayan) farmers in Jiangxi Province, two factors brought most farmers into the breeding of wild geese during the late 1990s: an opportunity to meet consumer demand without illegal poaching from the wild, and as a path toward higher-value production, at a time when rural smallholder farmers faced increasing economic pressure from large-scale industrial food producers.
During China’ s post-Mao market reforms which began in 1978, collective farmland was redistributed to individual households, leading to an explosion in smallholder farmers, known as “ specialised ” ( zhuanyehu) because they focused on particular cash crops or livestock, including chickens, ducks or pigs. But in the 1990s, China embarked on a “ second leap ” to expand the scale of agricultural production. Heavily capitalised “ dragonhead enterprises ” ( longtou qiye) – industrial food production conglomerates – built integrated supply chains, often centred on slaughterhouses and processing facilities, and contracted livestock out to household-scale farmers.
An enormous consolidation followed, as independent smallholders were progressively driven out of livestock farming, especially in sectors such as pork or poultry, because prices dropped too low and the cost of inputs went up. Livestock diseases, such as Newcastle disease and Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, also played a role in driving smallholders out of these sectors. Unable to survive as independent smallholders, many farmers faced a drastic choice: take up farming under contract to an industrial food conglomerate, or get out of farming pork or poultry altogether.
Some farmers discovered a third way, opting to raise local breeds and wild animals that could be sold for higher returns in niche markets. Many of these species were less afflicted with diseases than mainstream livestock, often simply an effect of the smaller number being farmed. Although the higher price of wild animals compared to domesticated has led to the belief that its consumption “ is a dietary choice and not driven by low income ”, for farmers the story is different: breeding wild animals can be a path toward a steady income when it remains a struggle to live off the land in rural China.
The variety of markets grouped under the term “ wet markets ”, much like the farming of wild animals, have provided important livelihoods to independent smallholder farmers. These markets often also have informal supply chains that enable smallholders to transport animals to market without the involvement of large-scale food processing firms that own slaughterhouses and control contracts with supermarkets. But although informal, it’ s not to say such markets are unregulated. Research by Christos Lynteris recorded regular inspections of “ wet markets ” markets by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) and by municipal sanitary authorities that begin after the SARS epidemic in 2003.
“ Wet markets ” form an integral part of the Chinese market and of Chinese social life. And based on the latest data suggesting a significant number of early cases of coronavirus without links to the Huanan Seafood Market, several infectious disease experts have raised doubts about whether the market was the source of the novel coronavirus at all. Whatever the case, while shutting them down temporarily and curbing wild-animal trade has advantages when it comes to preventing disease, a permanent shut down or abolition of “ wet markets ” would have an immense and unpredictable impact on everyday life and well-being in China.
A permanent shutdown of “ wet markets ” would affect patterns of food consumption in ways that are unknowable but potentially harmful to public health. It would deprive Chinese consumers of a food sector that accounts for 30-59% of their food supplies. Due to the large number of farmers, traders and consumers involved, the abolition of “ wet markets ” is also likely to lead to an explosion of an uncontrollable black market, as it did when such a ban was attempted in 2003, in response to SARS, as well as in 2013-14, in response to avian influenza H7N9.
This would involve enormously greater risk to public and global health than the legal and regulated live animal markets in China today. And live poultry and animal markets have long served as a crucial “ early warning ” site for viral surveillance, including in the United States.
What “ wet markets ” in China require is more scientific and evidence-based regulation, rather than being abolished and driven underground. | business |
What the coronavirus emergency declaration means for Canada | The director general of the World Health Organization ( WHO) has decided the outbreak of 2019-nCoV constitutes a public health emergency of international concern ( PHEIC) as more countries reported confirmed cases of the coronavirus. The move updates the organization’ s decisions from last week, when it said it lacked enough scientific evidence to declare the emergency.
The WHO has declared only five other PHEICs in the past decade: the H1N1 influenza pandemic ( 2009-10), setbacks in fighting polio ( 2014), West Africa’ s Ebola outbreak ( 2014), Zika virus ( 2015-2016) and the recent and ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Although the WHO responded to 58 health emergencies in 50 countries last year, PHEICs are a unique category of emergencies: they are defined under the International Health Regulations as extraordinary public health events that endanger global public health through the international spread of disease, and that potentially require a coordinated international response.
There have been three confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV Ontario, and one in British Columbia. Public health officials continue to stress that the risk of infection in Canada is low. So what does the emergency declaration mean for Canadians and Canada’ s role internationally?
The International Health Regulations aim to “ prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of disease in ways that are commensurate with and restricted to public health risks, and which avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. ”
The PHEIC declaration gives the WHO more power to muster an international response to the outbreak to prevent or reduce the spread of disease. Its recommendations are not binding on member countries, but they are expected to follow them.
In this case, the WHO recommendations ask China to enhance its actions to contain the outbreak, share relevant data on cases and conduct exit screening at international airports and ports. It also recommends other countries share information with the WHO, focus on reducing human infections and inform the WHO of any travel restrictions.
The WHO has recommended nations support those with weaker health systems and accelerate the development of vaccines and treatments. Canadian scientists are already working to develop a new vaccine against the novel virus, although it likely won’ t be ready for at least a year.
The IHR Emergencies Committee, which advises the WHO director general, said the recommendations should be interpreted in the spirit of solidarity and in support of China, to enhance preparedness in other regions of the world that may need additional support.
The committee has warned against any travel or trade restrictions, even as the United States has placed travel restrictions on travel to China. Canada closed its borders to people from Ebola-affected countries during the 2014-16 outbreak even though there was no scientific evidence supporting the decision, and was was criticized by the WHO for doing so.
The declaration of a global public health emergency can have serious repercussions. If it is called too early, it can interfere with international traffic and trade. But if it is called too late, the WHO may be viewed as failing to adequately protect the public’ s health.
The WHO has been criticized in the past for both premature and delayed declarations of PHEICs. Some experts have said WHO was too slow in its declaration on 2019-nCoV.
The declaration is both a political and ethical decision made in a time of immense uncertainty. It must strike a careful balance between the need to curb the spread of disease and prevent unnecessary fear and interference.
It does not necessarily mean the risk of infection has increased in Canada.
The WHO declared the emergency to coordinate an international response to protect countries with health-care systems that are otherwise ill-prepared to deal with this novel virus.
Despite its weaknesses, the Canadian health-care system is relatively well-equipped and prepared to address infectious disease outbreaks, particularly as a result of its experience with the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS). Multiple systems exist in Canada to prevent the spread of serious infectious diseases.
Canadians should not fear 2019-nCoV simply as a result of the WHO’ s declaration. Rather Canada and Canadians have an important, collective role to play in curbing the spread of this novel virus — and avoid the mistakes made in the past.
Instead, Canada can offer scientific expertise to help ill-equipped countries with surveillance and detection, and Canadians can do their part to help curb the spread of the disease by adopting common sense hygiene practices. | business |
Deere temporarily closes facilities in China due to coronavirus | Deere & Co said on Friday it has temporarily closed its facilities in China because of the coronavirus outbreak until the company determines it appropriate to reopen.
The Moline, Illinois-based farm equipment maker has eight facilities in the world’ s second-largest economy but none are located in China’ s city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus outbreak.
It was one of the most drastic steps taken by a U.S. company in response to the outbreak. American manufacturers have been mostly following the guidelines issued by Beijing - delaying reopening of their factories after the Lunar New Year.
Deere shares closed down 1.6% at $ 158.58 on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange.
The flu-like virus has resulted in 213 deaths in China and more than 130 cases have been reported in at least 25 other countries and regions. Wuhan, where it originated, and the surrounding region are in virtual quarantine.
The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak a global emergency. The United States has decided to halt entry to the country of foreign nationals who had been to China within the 14-day incubation period, a day after issuing a “ do not travel ” advisory for the country..
Deere said it also has decided to restrict travel by its employees to and from China until a later time. Many of its employees in China will work remotely, it added.
The epidemic has cast a shadow on broader economic activity, hammering global equity markets, which on Friday posted their biggest weekly and monthly loss since August. Mounting worries about the economic impact of the virus are also driving down oil prices.
Caterpillar Inc, Deere’ s rival, said earlier it was monitoring the situation in China closely and travel to and from the country is “ business critical only. ”
While none of the heavy equipment maker’ s manufacturing facilities is in the worst-affected province, the outbreak has delayed the reopening of many of its facilities after the Lunar New Year by a week.
General Motors Co, the No. 1 U.S. automaker, also has placed a temporary restriction on travel to Wuhan, where the company has a manufacturing base as part of a joint venture with China’ s SAIC Motor.
Several companies, including Tesla Inc, Apple Inc and Starbucks Corp have warned of a possible impact from the outbreak.
Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh; Editing by Chris Reese, Diane Craft and Jonathan Oatis | business |
Coronavirus outbreak: quarantining millions in China is unprecedented and wrong | The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. China has recorded over 8,246 cases, but just 170 deaths from the disease. As far as emerging diseases go, this virus appears relatively insipid.
Despite the mild severity of this disease, over 50 million people in Hubei Province have been restricted to their region as Chinese authorities try to prevent the spread of the virus. Wuhan’ s public health authorities say they are in a “ state of war ” and public transport has been shut down in several Chinese cities.
Cordoning off ground zero is not unusual in public health emergencies. An outbreak of norovirus or salmonella may lead to restaurant closure. In the case of the Chinese novel coronavirus, the wet market from where it may have originated ( in Wuhan) was similarly shut down.
Removing the suspected source of the disease is necessary but not sufficient. Any public health response to a disease outbreak must prevent transmission of cases to others. And while isolation is a well-established practice for individual cases, quarantining millions of healthy people is unprecedented in public health.
Across Asia, facemasks are back in vogue, with Alibaba selling 80 million over two days alone. Given the historical context, this is unsurprising. The Chinese are well acquainted with outbreaks of viral disease. Crystalline memories of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( Sars) have re-emerged. But it is this very context that raises the question: is such a drastic response warranted?
Some, looking in from the outside, may welcome mass quarantine. But in reality, it is no better than the usual public health response of isolating cases and potentially high-risk contacts of cases. Going further to isolate those who have any theoretical risk of disease may allay public fear and provide the illusion of intervention, but it can not be considered an evidence-based practice.
First, the argument for mass quarantine rests on the perilous assumption that one person’ s risk of infection is the same as another’ s, simply because they live in the same region. We know this is not the case, particularly at an early stage in an outbreak, and that there are groups at higher risk who may be identified and targeted first before radical strategies that interfere with usual activities are considered.
In fact, any impediment to the day-to-day functions of healthcare and other infrastructure can be a huge problem for disease control. Contact tracing, disease surveillance, public education and administering protective equipment, drugs or vaccines, rely on effective communication with hospitals, primary care, laboratories and other institutions, such as schools or nursing homes. Descending into a zombie-apocalypse scenario does not help in the operational coordination of complex cross-agency public health activities.
Second, a Chinese public health response must protect those within the affected region as well as those outside it. The current position flagrantly ignores the rights of healthy people in and around Wuhan. If we assume all currently recorded cases are within the city of Wuhan ( of approximately 11 million) and not the wider region, then we can conservatively estimate that over 99.9% of people are not cases.
While human-to-human transmission appears to be occurring, preliminary reports don’ t suggest that this is a particularly infectious disease. For every one case, the WHO estimates that a further 1.4 to 2.5 ( or an average of two) more people are infected. To put this in perspective, for measles, an estimated 12 to 18 people will get infected from a single case. So the vast majority of the population trapped in the region are not unwell and would be unlikely to get infected with an appropriate public health response.
Such a geographical lockdown of this magnitude is not just superfluous but also introduces new health problems into the mix. The first week of quarantine has resulted in crowded hospitals, food shortages and the local economy grinding to a standstill. Amid such chaos, even the Chinese will struggle to prevent defectors from fleeing. Also, it is unclear when it would be possible to lift such a lockdown.
With cases increasing by the day, the quarantine looks like it is here to stay, but escalating economic and social pressures will loom large for decision-makers. Surely the billions the quarantine is costing the Chinese economy would be put to better use in developing new diagnostic, preventative or therapeutic technologies for the virus?
A quarantine of this scale will create more problems than it solves. Other countries must be careful not to hastily imitate the Chinese if and when given the opportunity. | business |
WHO declares global emergency as China virus death toll reaches 170 | The World Health Organization ( WHO) said on Thursday it was declaring the coronavirus outbreak that has killed 170 people in China a global emergency, as cases spread to at least 18 countries.
The vast majority of the more than 7,800 cases detected globally, according to the latest WHO data, have been in China, where the virus originated in an illegal wildlife market in the city of Wuhan.
But nearly 100 cases have emerged in other countries, spurring cuts to travel, outbreaks of anti-China sentiment in some places and a surge in demand for protective face masks.
In Hubei province - of which Wuhan is the capital - some 60 million people are living under virtual lockdown as China seeks to contain the epidemic.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, praised China’ s response in a news conference in Geneva but said the WHO was concerned about the virus spreading to countries that did not have the resources to deal with it.
“ The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China but because of what is happening in other countries. Our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, ” he said.
The move will trigger tighter containment and information-sharing guidelines to all countries, but may disappoint Beijing, which had expressed confidence it can beat the “ devil ” virus.
Experts are particularly concerned about person-to-person transmission cases outside China, which suggest greater potential for the virus to spread further. The United States became the fourth country to report such a case on Thursday.
Officials from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the flu-like virus was confirmed in a man in Illinois, bringing the total number of U.S. cases to six. The man’ s wife, who was also infected, had previously travelled to China, but he had not.
“ The vast majority of cases outside China have a history of travel to Wuhan or history of contact with someone with a travel history to Wuhan, ” said Teros.
Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said the WHO decision was “ absolutely right. ”
“ Declaration of an international emergency will undoubtedly sharpen governments’ focus on protecting citizens, ” Farrar said. The needed public health measures would be a “ challenge ” for all countries, but would be especially difficult for lower-income countries, he added.
The virus has spread quickly since the WHO’ s Emergency Committee last met a week ago. But there has been no death reported outside China and neither has the virus emerged in Africa.
Italy became the latest country to declare confirmed cases on Thursday. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said two cases had been detected.
GRAPHIC: Tracking the novel coronavirus here
Tedros said the WHO “ doesn’ t recommend - and actually opposes ” restrictions on travel or trade with China.
Nonetheless, foreign governments have been flying home their citizens from Hubei and holding them in quarantine, while airlines including Air France, American Airlines and British Airways have stopped flying to mainland China.
Economists fear the impact could be bigger than the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) epidemic, which killed about 800 people and cost the global economy an estimated $ 33 billion. China now accounts for a larger share of the world economy and markets have been spooked since news of the virus emerged earlier this month. [ MKTS/GLOB ]
Companies have also been rattled. Alphabet Inc’ s Google and Sweden’ s IKEA were the latest big names to close China operations. China dominated U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’ s news conference on Wednesday.
In China, thousands of factory workers on Lunar New Year holidays may struggle to get back to work next week due to travel restrictions, while in Hubei itself locals and visitors are living a new reality.
“ Most of the shops are closed. We can not go out and buy food, ” Si Thu Tun, one of 60 students from Myanmar trapped in Wuhan, told online news outlet the Democratic Voice of Burma.
“ Honestly, I have one big potato and three packs of instant noodles and some rice, ” he said.
GRAPHIC: Online package of China virus news here
Reporting by Pei Li, Gabriel Crossley, Cate Cadell, Kevin Yao and Muyu Xu in Beijing; Samuel Shen and David Stanway in Shanghai; Josh Smith, Sangmi Cha and Joyce Lee in Seoul, Chang-Ran Kim in Tokyo and Se Young Lee; Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Kate Kelland in London; Crispian Balmer in Rome; Thu Thu Aung in Yangon; Ben Blanchard in Taipei; Writing by Alex Richardson and Rosalba O'Brien; Editing by Frances Kerry and Lisa Shumaker | business |
Why the 'devil ' coronavirus has hit European stocks hard | The coronavirus scare has wiped $ 1.2 trillion from global stock markets in the last two weeks as new cases of the deadly virus multiplied, stoking fears of an economic slowdown spreading from its Chinese epicenter to the rest of the world.
With the death toll rising to 213 despite travel restrictions, the impact was most evident in European equity markets in shares of companies which pocket the bulk of their revenues from China, the world’ s fastest-growing consumer market.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index is poised for its biggest weekly loss in four months, while among individual stocks Germany’ s Infineon, which gets two-thirds of its revenue from China, has fallen 10% despite strong quarterly results from Apple, its biggest customer.
The Goldman Sachs’ “ China exposure ” basket of European stocks has slumped 5% this week alone.
Elsewhere Electrolux shares dropped on Friday after the group warned the outbreak would hit its sourcing of products and components from China. Supply chains are seen as among the key issues arising from the virus, with companies as diverse as Apple, Starbucks and Autoliv warning of potential disruption.
Major names in travel, luxury and retail globally have also been hit as hundreds of millions of people who were preparing to travel for the Chinese holidays canceled their plans.
Royal Caribbean Cruises shares for instance have lost 12% of their value since Jan. 17 and the company has warned that its 2020 earnings would be impacted by cancellations.
Yet the virus - which Chinese President Xi Jinping has described as a “ devil ” - has had a bigger impact on European companies than their U.S. peers due to their high exposure to China.
Analysts have drawn comparisons with the deadly SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, but the read-across is limited as China’ s share of global gross domestic product has quadrupled since then to 16%.
GRAPHIC: European companies with high exposure to China - here
Several global airlines canceled flights to China and in Europe shares of long-haul operators Air France and Lufthansa have been on the decline for the past two weeks.
In the hospitality sector, Intercontinental Hotels Group and Accor were also beaten down.
GRAPHIC: Airlines, hotel stocks slide on Coronavirus outbreak - here
Topping it all, the non consumer-facing mining sector was the hardest hit in Europe, falling 8% on concerns that the coronavirus will cut China’ s gigantic appetite for commodities.
The graphic below shows how Europe’ s miners have among the biggest revenue exposures to China.
GRAPHIC: Mining exposure to China - here
Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Julien Ponthus; Additional reporting by Joice Alves and Danilo Masoni; Editing by David Holmes | business |
China Coronavirus Update: An Interview with Infectious Disease Specialist Sean Beckmann | The spreading of the coronavirus that began in Wuhan, China has researchers and health officials worldwide studying the emerging virus and preparing to treat it and develop vaccines. With such an enormous global focus, it seems that new information about the virus and the infection is being published each day.
China’ s National Health Commission stated on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, that the coronavirus had infected 5,974 individuals, resulting in 132 deaths and 103 people being cured. This has passed the number of patients who were infected with SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, in 2003. On Thursday, January 30, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency and updated the death toll in China to 213 people. They indicated there have been 98 cases reported in 18 countries outside China, but no deaths.
Sean Beckmann, assistant professor of Biology at Stetson University in Florida and an expert in zoonotic infections—diseases that originated in animal reservoirs and jumped to humans—took time to talk to BioSpace about the virus and what is currently known.
“ We know it’ s a coronavirus, so we know it’ s in the same virus family as the common cold as well as the SARS and MERS viruses that have caused previous epidemics. We know its genome, that is now out there, and people are using that for research—where did it potentially come from and what type of targets for treatment might come from. ”
And although no one’ s really given the virus or its infection a name outside of “ the China coronavirus, ” its technical classification is 2019NCOV.
The virus’ s genome is very similar to the SARS virus. Beckmann said, “ It does seem to share a lot of similarities to the SARS virus, which does give them a jumping-off point. They’ re using that as a model of where to work from. ”
He notes that they’ re pretty confident it originated in bat species, which is common with coronaviruses. “ Through mutation events or recombinations sometimes they’ re able to cross the species barrier and become zoonotic. We know that SARS crossed from bats to palm civets ( a type of cat) and from palm civets into humans. And it’ s believed that MERS crossed from bats to camels and from camels into humans. So, it’ s likely the China coronavirus originated in a bat, ” Beckmann said.
There have been rumors of an in-between stage between bats and humans for this new virus including snakes and chickens, or bats directly to humans. “ The least likely of those is the snake route, ” Beckmann said. “ It’ s much more likely through a mammal or possibly a bird, but probably a mammal. ”
The coronavirus is airborne. “ What we know about this one is that it’ s typically likely to be a short-distance communication, ” Beckmann said. “ It isn’ t something that looks like it can hang out on surfaces or in the air for a long time and still be infectious. It looks like it requires pretty close contact, which is why outside this epicenter in China we’ re not seeing a lot of human-to-human transmissions. ”
That means the transmission is by being coughed on or sneezed on and a liquid particle gets in your mouth, eyes or respiratory tract and it infects you. Beckmann said, “ This does not look like a virus that is able to stay alive in the air or on surfaces for a very long time. Which is good. ”
The coronavirus causes flu-like symptoms that can in some cases become pneumonia. Beckmann notes that coronaviruses in general target the respiratory system, and this coronavirus does as well, but it also seems to be targeting the lower respiratory system as well as the upper respiratory system. “ So, it’ s being associated with symptoms of bronchitis and pneumonia, particularly pneumonia, which makes it more dangerous because pneumonia tends to persist longer and have more severe symptoms associated with them. ”
As with influenza and many of these types of outbreaks, it appears to be primarily affecting the elderly, the very young or the immunocompromised.
The U.S. National Institutes of Health ( NIH) began working on a vaccine. Although it might be sped up, it would take several months and potentially more than a year before a vaccine could become available.
A number of biopharma companies have indicated they plan to focus on developing a vaccine as soon as possible. One is Moderna, which has mRNA vaccine technology and is working with NIH/NIAID/VRC on a potential vaccine. Novartis is also taking the threat seriously, but also indicates a vaccine is at least a year off.
Beckman notes, “ Treatment and targeting become multifaceted. You get containment and trying to reduce the spread as much as possible. You get the development of symptomatic treatment, things like antivirals. And the third one, and the more long-term process, is vaccine development. And that’ s because vaccine development takes quite a bit of time. ”
As of the end of January 2020, the outbreak appears to be accelerating, at least in China, and most of the cases identified outside of China are in people who recently traveled to China. In China, it has now spread to every part of the country’ s mainland, prompting Russia to close its border with China.
“ What often happens with these types of rapid spreading or pop-up events is the control and containment side of things combined with the treatment tends to cause them to peter out almost as quickly as it pops up, it seems. So, by the time it takes to get a viable vaccine, it’ s almost not necessary anymore, ” Beckman said.
He added, “ That doesn’ t mean they shouldn’ t be looking for it, because it could be necessary, but it does take a longer time to get there. ”
Other experts suspect the coronavirus hasn’ t peaked yet, which isn’ t likely for several more months. Person-to-person transmission has been observed in at least three countries outside of China, according to the WHO. They are Japan, Vietnam and Germany.
Also this week, Australian researchers successfully grew the coronavirus in the lab, the first recreated outside China. The researchers at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne agreed to share the sample, which has grown from a patient diagnosed with the infection. This will allow researchers to more quickly develop vaccines and potential treatments.
Beckmann says, “ It’ s one of those situations where the more people are working on it, the more likely they are to hit on something. So, it seems to me it’ s kind of ‘ all hands on deck’ so we can get to the answer as quickly as possible. ”
In terms of comparative risk, in the U.S. alone, at least 8,200 people have died from influenza this year, including 54 children—and there is already a seasonable vaccine available. And for this season, 2019-2020, the CDC indicates there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses resulting in 140,000 hospitalizations. The flu kills up to 650,000 people each year globally.
Beckman said, “ If you’ re in China right now, then yes, this is a really big issue. If you’ re outside of China, there are ( at the time of the interview) 78 infectious outside China…. The relative risk of acquiring this outside of China is really, really low. ”
He points out that in Florida, where he is, it’ s cold, flu and allergy season, but you’ re much more likely to be acquiring the flu or a cold than coronavirus—or even allergic rhinitis and allergy issues than to any real risk of coming into contact or acquiring this coronavirus.
“ The term I’ ve been trying to use is ‘ caution without panic,’ ” Beckmann said. “ This shouldn’ t be ignored. People need to stay informed about this because there is a possibility of this spreading. No, I don’ t think it’ s going to become an American epidemic. But I do think ignoring it is not the way to go either. ”
He recommends the typical precautions you’ d take to avoid the cold and flu. If you’ re not feeling well and have a respiratory infection, go to the doctor. If you come in contact with someone who’ s been to this part of the world and start to feel ill, definitely go to the doctor and inform them of that so you can be tested. Wash your hands regularly. Clean surfaces regularly. | general |
How the industry is coping with coronavirus | Automakers and suppliers are attempting to stay ahead of the spreading coronavirus. But the scale of the illness worldwide continues to grow. Here are some of the measures that automakers and suppliers took last week.
Renault will extend a shutdown at its factory in China's Wuhan until Feb. 13, in line with the Chinese government's guidance over the coronavirus for workers in the city and extended Lunar New year holidays, a spokeswoman said on Monday. The Renault's plant, where it employs around 2,000 people, had been set to reopen on Feb. 10. | general |
Q & A: All you need to know as coronavirus affects more people in Europe | Many more people in Europe are likely to contract novel coronavirus that causes serious lung disease, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has warned.
Many more people in Europe are likely to contract novel coronavirus that causes serious lung disease, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has warned.
Q. How does the ECDC assess the risk of the of a coronavirus outbreak?
A. Based on the information currently available the centre believes the potential impact of a coronavirus outbreak is “ high ”. However, if cases are detected in Europe quickly and rigorous infection prevention and control measures applied the likelihood of human-to-human transmission continuing is “ low. ”
The virus starts with a fever, followed by a dry cough and then, after a week, leads to shortness of breath with some patients needing hospital treatment. About one-in-four cases are thought to be severe.
Q. Do nurses feel they are ready to play their role on the frontline should any cases arrive in the country? | general |
Irish Examiner View: Scale of coronavirus risk is still unknown | That composure will be challenged too by the news that the number of cases worldwide has already surpassed the Sars epidemic peak.
The widely-circulated image of a grey-haired man lying dead where he fell on a Wuhan footpath, his face half covered by a protective mask and a plastic shopping bag in one hand, surrounded by medical staff in full protective hazmat suits and masks, may not promote the kind of calm that the escalating coronavirus outbreak demands.
That composure will be challenged too by the news that the number of cases worldwide has already surpassed the Sars epidemic peak.
Sars — severe acute respiratory syndrome — spread to more than two dozen countries in 2003 and there were around 8,100 cases but nearly 10,000 people have, to date, been infected with coronavirus.
The number of deaths stands at 213, all in China. That toll is, for now, far lower than the 774 people killed by Sars.
That two members of a family have tested positive for coronavirus in England will challenge that composure too. Further afield, Thailand recorded its first human-to-human transmission of the disease after a taxi driver was infected by a passenger, heightening concern over the virus’ potential to spread in the worst-hit country outside China.
The driver was among five new patients confirmed yesterday, bringing the number of cases in Thailand to 19. Russia has also confirmed a case. | general |
Trump Administration Adds Six Countries to Travel Ban | WASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday added six countries to his list of nations facing stringent travel restrictions, a move that will virtually block immigration from Africa’ s most populous nation, Nigeria, and from Myanmar, where the Muslim minority is fleeing genocide.
Beside Nigeria, three other African countries, Eritrea, Sudan and Tanzania, will face varying degrees of restrictions, as will one former Soviet state, Kyrgyzstan. Myanmar’ s Rohingya Muslims could also be caught in the crossfire.
All six countries have substantial Muslim populations. The total number of countries now on the restricted travel list stands at 13.
Immigrant visas, issued to those seeking to live in the United States, will be banned for Nigeria, Myanmar, Eritrea and Kyrgyzstan. The ban will also prevent immigrants from Sudan and Tanzania from moving to the United States through the diversity visa lottery, which grants green cards to as many as 50,000 people a year.
The proclamation will take effect on Feb. 22. Immigrants who obtain visas before then will still be able to travel to the United States, officials said. Nonimmigrant visas, including those for students and certain temporary workers, as well as visas reserved for potential employees with specialized skills, will not be affected by the ban.
Immigrants will be able to apply for waivers from the restrictions. The administration has said waivers are issued to those who would experience undue hardship if denied entry into the United States, although the process has been criticized as opaque.
The administration has argued that the ban, enacted in 2017 to restrict travel from Muslim-majority countries, is necessary to ensure that countries satisfy security requirements for travel into the United States, or face restrictions until they do.
The expansion of the restrictions, which already affected more than 135 million people in seven countries, is likely to hinder more than 12,300 potential immigrants in the next year from resettling, finding work or reuniting with their families in the United States. The effect on Nigeria, not only Africa’ s most populous country but also its largest economy, could be particularly severe. The United States issued more than 7,920 immigrant visas to Nigerians in the 2018 fiscal year, the second-most of any African country.
Officials with the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity said Eritrea, Tanzania and Kyrgyzstan were being added to the list because each country had either had not satisfied the administration’ s information-sharing requirements related to terrorism or did not have updated passport systems.
The officials said Sudan remained a state sponsor of terrorism, even though the country has transitioned to a civilian-run government from one ruled by its military.
While Nigeria has partnered with the American military, the officials noted an “ elevated risk and threat environment in the country, ” when justifying the travel restrictions. But before the announcement on Friday, an American government official said the administration planned to add Nigeria and Tanzania to the list because of the number of people coming from those countries on a visa who end up staying in the United States illegally.
Lai Mohammed, Nigeria’ s Minister of Information and Culture, said earlier this week that Nigerian officials had not been advised that their country would be included in the ban.
“ It would be quite unfortunate if for any reason Nigeria were on the list, ” Mr. Mohammed said, noting the two governments’ cooperation in combating terrorism. “ It would be a double jeopardy: The country has committed a lot of resources to fight terrorism. Any travel ban can not but be inimical to the growth of the country. ”
He added, “ Once a travel ban is imposed on a country, the consequences are not always pleasant. ”
The extension of the travel ban comes at a delicate time for international travel amid a coronavirus outbreak in China. The administration also announced on Friday that most foreign citizens traveling from China would be temporarily suspended entry in the United States.
But it also comes as the 2020 election heats up. Mr. Trump is expected to use his travel ban, as well as his efforts to cut refugee admissions, to rally his political base as his administration contends with a Senate impeachment trial. Some of the most vulnerable populations in the world had one door to the United States shut last fall when Mr. Trump lowered his cap on refugee admissions to 18,000, down from 30,000 in the year prior. The administration has also severely restricted the ability for migrants to obtain asylum at the southwest border.
In countries like Myanmar, which is also called Burma, the expansion of the travel ban closes off another avenue for many seeking safety or family reunification.
“ Nearly 5,000 Burmese refugees started to rebuild their lives in America last year, many of whom seek to reunite with family still in harm’ s way, ” said Krish O’ Mara Vignarajah, president of Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, a refugee resettlement agency.
Mr. Trump has made disparaging comments about African nations in the past, complaining that Nigerians who entered the United States on visas would never “ go back to their huts. ”
Democrats, who have long opposed the ban, condemned its expansion.
“ President Trump and his administration’ s continued disdain for our nation’ s national security and our founding ideals of liberty and justice dishonor our proud immigrant heritage and the diversity that strengthens and enriches our communities, ” Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California said in a statement.
Days after he came into office, Mr. Trump signed an executive order that closed the country’ s borders to people from seven predominantly Muslim countries, making partial good on a campaign pledge “ for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’ s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. ”
The policy took even some of Mr. Trump’ s own Department of Homeland Security officials by surprise and prompted widespread confusion at airports across the nation.
The ban drew several legal challenges but, after some adjustments, was narrowly upheld by the Supreme Court in June 2018. The ban initially restricted travel from Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Chad — as well as Venezuela and North Korea. Chad was later removed from the list. The court’ s majority argued that the policy was not a Muslim ban, citing the inclusion of North Korea and Venezuela and the administration’ s process of granting exemptions.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. also wrote for the majority that Mr. Trump had the statutory authority to make national security judgments in the realm of immigration. More than 79,700 visas have been subject to the ban since December 2017, according to the State Department.
Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California, said in a statement on Friday that the committee would discuss legislation to repeal the ban, which excludes “ large classes of people, without adequate justification, and in some cases, to implement sweeping changes that contradict existing law. ”
In recent weeks, American citizens, as well as immigrants and potential students, have felt the consequences of the increased vetting that has come with the travel bans.
After the death of Iran’ s powerful commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who was killed in an attack ordered by Mr. Trump, Customs and Border Protection officers at American borders stepped up vetting of travelers of Iranian descent, including American citizens and legal permanent residents, who have a constitutional right to enter the United States. Two days after the attack, hundreds of Iranians and Iranian-Americans travelers were held for hours at a port of entry in Blaine, Wash., where many said they were subjected to questioning about their religious and political beliefs.
Customs and Border Protection officials denied afterward that a national directive had been issued to detain or deny entry to travelers based solely on their connections to Iran. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation later reported that it had obtained documents stating that a directive had, in fact, been issued.
A Department of Homeland Security official confirmed the authenticity of the document, adding that the directive was limited to the field office in Blaine. It stated that Iranians as well as “ any other nationality that has traveled to Iran or Lebanon ” should be subjected to increased vetting.
A spokesman for Customs and Border Protection declined to comment on the document but said the situation was under investigation, and that, “ at no time did D.H.S./C.B.P. issue a directive to deny entry to any individual. ” The spokesman did not say whether Iranians were being subjected to increased vetting as a matter of policy.
Doug Rand, who worked on immigration policy in the Obama White House and helped found Boundless Immigration, a technology company that helps immigrants obtain green cards, said the additions to the ban would not just affect foreigners but also American citizens.
“ It has become a de facto family separation policy besides the obvious one at the border, ” Mr. Rand said. “ This will just magnify the pain to extend it to other countries. ”
Ruth Maclean contributed reporting from London, Caitlin Dickerson from New York and Eric Schmitt from Washington. | business |
David Cockfield's Top Picks: Jan. 31, 2020 | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Early in 2020, North American equity markets hit new all-time highs. Observers called this rise a “ melt-up ” despite indifferent corporate earnings reports. The S & P 500 forward price-to-earnings ( P/E) ratio expanded from 14 to 19 times and accounted for 92 per cent of the index gain. Equity markets are reacting to an excess of liquidity as central banks and particularly the Federal Reserve continue to pump funds into the banking system.
Equity multiples remain historically high and the phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal leaves a lot yet to be accomplished. The coronavirus outbreak is already causing economic disruption in China, and Brexit and the Trump impeachment trial are also creating additional uncertainty for investment prospects. Caution is warranted in this particular environment until there’ s a better idea from earnings reports as to ongoing profits and forecasts for the rest of 2020.
David Cockfield of Northland Wealth shares his top picks: ZLB, XSH and XEC.
BMO LOW VOLAITLITY CANADIAN EQUITIES ETF ( ZLB TSX) Last purchased in January at $ 35.46.
This ETF offers investors a high-quality diversified portfolio of low-beta Canadian and U.S. equities. A low-beta stock is less sensitive to day-to-day market movements and low-beta portfolios tend to perform better in volatile markets. ZLB’ s portfolio is rebalanced at midyear and reconstructed at year-end. The management expense ratio ( MER) is a low 0.39 per cent and it provides a yield of 2.4 per cent.
ISHARES CORE CANADIAN SHORT TERM CORPORATE & MAPLE BOND ETF ( XSH TSX) Last purchased in January at $ 19.41.
This ETF gives investors a means to invest in a diversified portfolio of short-term fixed income securities. Largely focused on notes issued by Canadian chartered banks, XSH offers an alternative to leaving funds in cash but provides full market liquidity. It has a low MER of 0.10 per cent and a yield to maturity ( YTM) of 2.15 per cent. XSH offers a safe place in difficult markets.
ISHARES CORE MSCI EMERGING MARKETS IMI INDEX ETF ( XEC TSX) Last purchased in January at $ 27.68.
This ETF replicates the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index. This grants access to the long-term growth potential of emerging markets. The index captures large- and mid-cap stock performance across 24 emerging markets such as Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and others. The MER is 0.26 per cent. It recently sold off due to the coronavirus crisis.
David Cockfield of Northland Wealth reviews his past picks: the ZLB, ZLU and TD Bank.
BMO LOW VOLATILITY U.S. EQUITIES ETF ( ZLU TSX)
TWITTER: @ northlandwealth WEBSITE: northlandwealth.com
Perhaps the most relevant comparison to the mad dash of scoring a rapid antigen test is the frenzied market for toilet paper that broke out in 2020.
Nutrien remains tight-lipped on departure of two CEOs in eight months.
At least one currency strategist is surprised by the Canadian dollar’ s flat performance over the past year considering the boom in commodity prices and the Bank of Canada’ s timeline for hiking interest rates.
Canada's oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of crude to overseas markets thanks to a new link to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
We can all hope the new year brings plenty of opportunity. For the average retirement investor looking for some tax relief in 2022, it knocks three times.
The Ontario government will offer a $ 10,000 grant to small businesses forced to close due to public health measures.
As Ontario looks to curb virus cases amid the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, many workers adjusting to another round of COVID-related restrictions feel the changes are taking a toll on their mental health.
The U.S. SEC is charging 3 Florida residents for their alleged involvement in an insider trading ring that is believed to have netted millions of dollars in profits, including from tips tied to an ill-fated attempted takeover of Aphria | general |
What China's unexpected viral contagion could mean for Canada's economy | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Prognosticators said volatility would be back this year. They were right. And they were correct to predict Canadian stocks would outperform the U.S.
What they couldn’ t foresee was a viral outbreak that has roiled global markets. While it’ s too early to assess the full impact of the coronavirus, now designated a global health emergency, it will have economic repercussions in Canada.
China is the second-largest market for Canadian products, according to Bloomberg data. It purchased about $ 27 billion in goods from Canada in 2018, according to Statistics Canada. It exported $ 22 billion worth of goods to China in the first 11 months of 2019, representing four per cent of total shipments abroad. China is also Canada’ s largest source of tourist arrivals from the Asia-Pacific region with a record 737,000 Chinese tourists in 2018, according to state agency Destination Canada.
A third case of coronavirus was confirmed in Ontario on Friday, bringing the total number to four in Canada. A woman in her 20s arrived in Wuhan from Toronto on Jan. 23 and went to London, Ontario, developing symptoms a day later. She was first tested negative, but a second test confirmed the virus.
Uncertainty about the severity and duration of the outbreak has left economists and analysts making best-guess estimates. Many are reaching back to the SARS outbreak of 2003 for pointers on how things could play out, but China’ s economy is now 10 times larger compared with 17 years ago.
Canada’ s economy will see the spillover effects of this pandemic “ but the impact looks likely to be limited relative to the 2003 SARS outbreak, ” Nathan Janzen, a Royal Bank of Canada senior economist, said in a report. China-Canada bilateral travel will decline, he said, though “ risks to total Canadian travel inflows will still look smaller than SARS, at least for now. ”
The loonie has weakened against the greenback since the new virus began making headlines as the price of oil slumped, bonds rallied and Canada’ s stock market dropped ( albeit at a smaller scale versus the U.S. thanks to gold stocks). And as earnings season picks up pace in earnest north of the border, Canadian firms are discussing the impact the virus will have on their bottom line.
• Teck Resources Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Don Lindsay said that if the coronavirus follows the pattern of SARS, there will be a two- to six-month period in which it will affect the perception of commodities demand. He added that once things get back to normal, it will present a buying opportunity.
• Resolute Forest Products Inc.’ s CEO Yves Laflamme said in a phone interview that virus outbreaks are “ never good for the economy, ” and demand in China, a large consumer of lumber and pulp, may ebb should the impact last for an extended period.
• Sun Life Financial Inc. has asked employees who travelled to mainland China recently to work from home for two weeks before returning to the office, with similar to steps taken by Bank of Montreal and Manulife Financial Corp.
• Air Canada, the nation’ s largest airline, suspended all direct flights to Beijing and Shanghai until Feb. 29. Its shares have slumped about 15% since a peak earlier this month.
• Magna International Inc., which has 55 manufacturing and assembly units in China and has a 10th of its workforce there, has banned travel to the country, according to media reports. Magna could also take a hit as carmakers like General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. halted some production.
• Canada Goose Inc. is slated to report third-quarter results on Feb. 7. Investors will want to know how the viral outbreak has impacted sales in China and Hong Kong and whether this will be reflected in any year-end forecasts. The luxury winter apparel retailer has two stores in Hong Kong, one in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenyang each.
• At least eight Canadian-listed companies generate 100 per cent of their revenue from China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. received more than 35 per cent of its 2018 sales from China, and Mississauga, Ontario-based Imax Corp., which is listed in the U.S., gets a third.
Canada’ s economy unexpectedly expanded in November as cold weather drove a sharp increase in power usage, though the pickup won’ t be enough to salvage what is likely to be a weak end to the year. Gross domestic output rose 0.1 per cent in November, beating economists’ estimates for a flat reading, Statistics Canada reported Friday. That follows a 0.1 per cent contraction in the prior month.
Employment data from January is due Feb. 7
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau discussed the new Nafta in a call with Donald Trump. Trudeau “ raised the arbitrary detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor in China, and the two leaders agreed on the need for their immediate release, ” according to a readout from Trudeau’ s office issued Friday. They also discussed the coronavirus outbreak and “ global health emergency and measures being taken by both countries to protect the health and safety of their citizens. ” | general |
Caterpillar's 2020 outlook adds more gloom to virus-shaken markets | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
The stock symbol { { StockChart.Ric } } does not exist
Caterpillar Inc.’ s 2020 profit outlook trailed analysts’ estimates, with “ further economic uncertainty ” expected to pressure sales, adding further gloom to global markets already reeling from the coronavirus.
The heavy-equipment maker expects 2020 profit to be in a range of US $ 8.50 to US $ 10 per share. Analysts had forecast US $ 10.55 on average. Per-share profit in the fourth quarter topped analysts’ estimates.
Shares of Caterpillar have dropped this month after surging last quarter, with markets roiled by the coronavirus at a time when money managers are seeking signs of improvement in the global economy after the U.S.-China trade deal. The outlook may signal further headwinds for machine sales. They’ ve been sliding as global manufacturing slumps, business investment declines and miners hold back on spending.
“ We expect continued global economic uncertainty to pressure sales to users in 2020 and cause dealers to further reduce inventories, ” Chief Executive Officer Jim Umpleby said in a statement Friday.
Caterpillar, considered an economic barometer, has been trying to cut costs and trim inventories as demand in some of its main markets trails production.
The outlook clouds prospects for the company that reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of US $ 2.63 per share, beating the US $ 2.37 average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
“ Strong cost control more than offset lower-than-expected end-user demand ” helping the company report better-the-expected fourth-quarter results, Umpleby said.
The statement was released before the start of regular trading in New York, where Caterpillar shares slipped 0.3 per cent at 6:56 a.m. | general |
With freight trough not quite reached, experts at SMC JumpStart expect gains in back half of 2020 | While it was not a huge surprise that 2019 was unable to maintain the economic and freight volume momentum seen in 2018, the outlook for 2020 is shaping up to be closer to the former. That was the word from speakers at this week’ s SMC3 JumpStart 2020 conference in Atlanta.
Dr. Jeffrey Rosenweig, Associate Professor of Finance; Director, The Robson Program for Business, Public Policy, and Government, at Emory University, said in a presentation that when looking at the United States economy, annual GDP output hovered around 2.5% during the Presidential administration’ s led by George W. Bush and Barack Obama, which have been followed by some accelerations, at times, during Donald Trump’ s time in office and were largely spurred on by tax cuts.
But that does not come close to telling the full story, he said.
“ The current forecast is that [ the economy ] will still grow, nobody is forecasting a recession just yet, ” he said. “ But U.S. GDP may slow down to under 2%. ”
While retail sales and consumer confidence remain strong, Rosenweig said that manufacturing, a sector that, in some ways, is viewed as a proxy for freight activity, may already be falling into recession in the U.S. and in other major global economies, too.
“ It is typical that a country like ours leads the world in technology, technological process…and the same amount of workers can produce more each year as technology advances, ” he said. “ As the machinery and robots we are using increasingly embodies machine learning, where they learn as they go, then we will get to a world of artificial intelligence, self-driving trucks, as well as robots that are more flexible to change what they are doing maybe on assembly lines. ”
Rosenweig also touched upon the impact of the Coronavirus on the global economy, which has rattled markets and resulted in declines in airline share prices, with China-based airlines reducing capacity to mainland China through March.
Ben Hartford, transportation equity research for Robert W. Baird & Co., explained that in looking back at 2019, it was a year that featured weak volume trends elevated inventories, and excess supply, which all came together to plague industry fundamentals.
“ We do see evidence that this current freight cycle should bottom during 2020, ” he said. “ It is going to be a tough first half of the year. I don’ t think trends have bottomed yet…when we talk about trends, it is about growth trends being less bad and improving as we finish out the year. ”
In 2019, Hartford said that freight volume growth deteriorated across multiple modes, with rail carloads as low as levels seen during the 2015-2016 trough, especially for industrial and intermodal loadings. And it was also the same for LTL weight-per-shipment throughout the year, and airfreight and ocean volumes, too, up against tough annual comparisons to 2018. Elevated inventories impacted by weak industrial trends also played a role as well, he said.
“ We are looking at uncertainty everyday, ” he noted. “ When you contract, there are a lot of contradictions in the market. There are a lot of similarities between now and the late 1990s, with weak freight trends and industrial trends and equity markets less muted. Changing trade and fiscal policies and political rhetoric stand out as similar comparisons to back then. What is different now is the limitless amount of data we have at our fingertips….makes things now more of a matter of perspective in that people can find anything they want to justify any outlandish statement they want to make. It creates a lot of noise and that noise and business uncertainty can plague future growth and from a business owner or consumer standpoint, it does have a tendency to restrict activity for capital budgets and consumer confidence weakens growth. ”
With freight growth rates expected to bottom in 2020 and a tough first half of the year expected and a pending bid season approaching, less bad growth rates are in the forecast for the back half of 2020, with the caveat that industrial activity will play a key role in whether that plays out or not, Hartford reiterated.
From a supply standpoint, Hartford said truckload supply is expected to continue to leave the market, coupled with stabilizing demand supply reduction is expected to support load factors, utilization rates, and help support pricing growth through 2020.
“ Consumer demand remains solid, and industrial activity is showing some signs of bottoming, ” he said. “ The reality is it is a long cycle, a slow growth cycle. The reality is economic cycles don’ t die of old age, they tend to be killed by sharp spikes in energy prices or inversions in the yield curve. We are near all-time cycle highs for consumer confidence, though. Consumer confidence tends to be the last to give up the ghost immediately before a recession. What triggers that are the sharp spikes in energy prices. ” | general |
Realpolitik of the day after Brexit | This opinion piece was originally published in Het Financieele Dagblad and Kathimerini.
This piece forms part of Bruegel’ s ongoing work in EU3D, a research project that examines differentiation in the European political order. The EU3D project has received funding from the European Union’ s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 822419.
So, Brexit is done tonight at 12.00 am. The UK will no longer be a member of the European Union.
Now negotiators must move on to harder things. To quote a famous British Europhile, Winston Churchill “ …this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps, the end of the beginning. ”
The UK has lost all its representation in EU institutions but, at least till the end of December 2020, it must comply with all EU regulations. For a little while then, everything continues as is, except the UK has no say, including in what decisions the EU takes between 1 February and the end of the year.
The UK would, understandably, want to limit this period as a pure rule-taker. But this depends on whether there will be an agreed relationship by the end of this year.
Can it be done? If this deal refers to just trade issues then any agreement made will have to be ratified by the Council and European Parliament only. And yet, if it is more than just a bare-bones trade deal, but refers to any other issues, national parliaments will in all likelihood need to be consulted. This is a much more complicated and time-consuming process.
The UK will be driven in its demands by the Brexit rationale for regulatory divergence. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank England, argues in these terms for financial services. As one of the world’ s major financial centres, the argument goes, the City of London should aim to go its own way. Given that the UK is leaving the EU, it should aim to maintain and expand the relative advantage it has in the financial sector, the way it sees fit.
But why should the EU agree to this? The City has served as the financial centre of the EU and the euro. Even if Brexit itself diminishes the City’ s allure, there is no obvious substitute in continental Europe. This is true for banking services but is more so for access to capital markets. For as long as capital markets union is not a reality, London can still provide access to capital markets the European economy needs.
So, perhaps an agreement on financial services is within the realm of what is possible.
But what about trade? The UK will be looking to stay as close to the EU’ s single market as it possibly can. The EU will want to accommodate that provided the UK accepts its rules. Here incentives are not as aligned. The EU is unlikely to bulge as it has the upper hand in the negotiations. By leaving the EU the UK risks losing 27 markets. This reflects about half of its trade. The EU just risks losing one market, has less to lose and is not prepared to risk the integrity of the single market. Can then the UK accept regulatory alignment in return for seamless trade?
The chances are that it won’ t. But nor can it afford to have no deal by the end of the year that would require prolonging its rule-taker status. That would mean that the only way forward is aiming to have a narrow deal on very specific sectors within the year, but then pursue regulatory divergence for the rest.
Together with some agreement on financial services, this might suffice to declare a political victory. But it will be economically poor as it will not have avoided trade disruptions. This will have consequences for British industries and eventually the economy. But also, it could exacerbate the divergence between London, that will have been allowed to continue to thrive, and the rest of the country that will lose the benefits of frictionless trade. Ironically, this was one of the arguments that fed the Brexit cause to begin with.
Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.
Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to [ email protected ].
Post-Brexit UK bank regulation is not likely to compromise on international standards, but will place greater emphasis on competition, making close UK-EU dialogue essential.
Corporate bankruptcies are set to rise in the context of COVID-19. EU countries should speed up adoption of recent insolvency reforms and, in addition, offer consistent treatment to restructuring finance.
The phase of greatest Brexit-related uncertainty for the European financial sector ended on 1 January. Although too early to discern more than the broadest contours of the future landscape, it is increasingly apparent that London will be less dominant than before.
This paper assesses COVID-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies, and examines how countries have dealt with trade-offs raised by the programmes. | business |
Watch Out for Coronavirus Phishing Scams | At least one email campaign is preying on fears by claiming to offer info about the Wuhan coronavirus. | tech |
California Senate Bill 50: What's Next For Housing? | Good morning.
( Here’ s the sign-up, if you don’ t already get California Today by email.)
My colleague Conor Dougherty followed the protracted debate over one of the most closely watched and polarizing fixes for California’ s housing crisis, which played out in Sacramento this week. Here’ s his dispatch:
Senate Bill 50 is dead. Or is it?
That question hovered over the California State Legislature the past two days while Senator Scott Wiener’ s bill to allow mid-rise apartments and condominiums near transit stops made its way to a final floor vote.
The bill was voted down Wednesday — only to be brought back for another unsuccessful vote on Thursday.
In the end, after failing to muster a majority, Toni Atkins, the Senate president pro tem, gave a speech in which she declared that even though the bill is now gone, something like it will pass this year and called on senators to “ step up ” and hash out a compromise.
The final vote capped one of the most dramatic Senate sessions in recent years. During a two-hour debate on Wednesday, lawmakers alternated between statements about the gravity of California’ s housing crisis and a reluctance to upend the state’ s governance and low-density roots.
[ Read the full story. ]
One senator would talk about homelessness and three-hour super-commutes. The next would talk about the right of localities to set zoning policy.
Virtually everyone in attendance agreed that something significant had to be done to ease California’ s housing troubles, but, in an indication of just how conflicted the Legislature was about how to get there, one of the bill’ s co-sponsors said the bill made him uncomfortable; another senator said she was voting for it despite opposition from cities in her district. Yet another, voting no, said that if the bill failed he wanted Mr. Wiener to simply reintroduce it so the debate would continue.
“ The only thing that folks agree on is that we need housing, ” said Andreas Borgeas, a Fresno Republican, who voted against it. “ How we get there, everyone has a different theory. ”
Throughout the session, opponents thanked Mr. Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, for forcing a tough debate. Where that debate goes is unclear. That it will continue is guaranteed.
“ This is not the end of the story, ” Ms. Atkins said.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, who said he supported the bill’ s intent but never endorsed it, followed up with his own statement in favor of new legislation to replace it: “ California’ s housing affordability crisis demands our state pass a historic housing production bill. ”
And Mr. Wiener himself tweeted that he had introduced two place-holder housing bills — the details of which are to be determined.
[ Want more analysis? An editorial writer at The Los Angeles Times blamed L.A. lawmakers for killing the bill without a better plan. And in an opinion piece for The Mercury News, a councilman in Burlingame wrote that cities like his are building lots of housing — without Sacramento’ s intervention. ]
We often link to sites that limit access for nonsubscribers. We appreciate your reading Times coverage, but we also encourage you to support local news if you can.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency. Keep this page open for the latest updates from The Times.
Also: If you’ ve taken specific precautions or have encountered businesses or other agencies that have done so, tell us about them at CAToday @ nytimes.com.
Kobe Bryant and eight others were killed in a helicopter crash on a Sunday that would change the world for churchgoers who saw the disaster unfold, my colleague John Branch wrote. The crash highlighted the potent symbolism and many roles of helicopters in Southern California, my colleagues reported.
The Super Bowl is on Sunday. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ( That’ s California time.) It’ s the 49ers versus the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in it for the first time in 50 years. My colleagues on the Culture desk discussed why they can’ t look away from the spectacle. Shakira and Jennifer Lopez are performing at halftime.
My colleague Nellie Bowles was smitten with the newly ( mostly) car-free Market Street, the thoroughfare that cuts through San Francisco, so she wrote about it. Here’ s her dispatch:
The densest blocks of Market Street are now almost car-free. Buses, taxis and delivery trucks only. This is the culmination of a very long dream for the city’ s urban planners and cyclists and walkers. That last group is the one I belong to.
And so on the warm January launch day earlier this week, I went for a long walk down the city’ s main thoroughfare.
The main thing I noticed was the sound. It’ s not that the new car-free Market Street is quiet, it’ s that without the honking and revving, other sounds lift up.
Standing on one corner, I could hear someone playing the horn a few blocks away, the Ferry Building clock tower chiming 2 o’ clock, birds, a boom box on a bike, a street kid chatting with his dog, an escalator squeaking down into BART, people’ s conversations.
Early reviews are positive. A bus driver gave it two thumbs up. A couple of taxi drivers expressed delight. ( Uber and Lyft are not allowed down Market.)
Two men eating lunch on a concrete step said they liked the quiet but worried what might happen during sports games when traffic gets thick. A few people complained about the Uber and Lyft discrimination. An older woman said it was nice because the new Market lets people really see the old time-y cable cars that still run down the middle of the street.
And while there were predictions of pandemonium, all seemed smooth as cars cut across from the city’ s north to its south side. A lot of people didn’ t even notice the change until I asked about it.
Part of the hope for the car-free street was that it would be safer.
“ Nobody knew how to drive on Market. Everybody was running red lights and was about to run us over, ” said Ron Webb, 58, who is homeless and spends much of his day on various Market Street sidewalks. He said he feels much safer.
The rollout itself was quiet. There is no corporate branding plastered along the new Market Street. I saw no plaque reminding me to thank a generous donor for it.
Instead I noticed the buses were a bit faster, the bikers bolder. The city’ s balance feels — just a little — tilted back toward the community.
I don’ t care if they ever finish the next phases, like the beautification. I just want to walk it and listen.
California Today goes live at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time weekdays. Tell us what you want to see: CAtoday @ nytimes.com. Were you forwarded this email? Sign up for California Today here.
Jill Cowan grew up in Orange County, graduated from U.C. Berkeley and has reported all over the state, including the Bay Area, Bakersfield and Los Angeles — but she always wants to see more. Follow along here or on Twitter, @ jillcowan.
California Today is edited by Julie Bloom, who grew up in Los Angeles and graduated from U.C. Berkeley. | business |
Vietnam fears coronavirus may disrupt its fisheries exports to China |
Subscribe to SeafoodSource News
// <! [ CDATA [ var switchTo5x=true; // ] ] > // <! [ CDATA [ stLight.options ( { publisher: `` d264abd5-77a9-4dfd-bee5-44f5369b1275 '', doNotHash: false, doNotCopy: false, hashAddressBar: false }); // ] ] >
Share
Vietnam’ s government and seafood exporters are worried the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak may disrupt global trade in its agro-forestry-fisheries products...
Photo courtesy of Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers | general |
U.S. confirms its first person-to-person coronavirus transmission | The husband of an Illinois woman diagnosed with coronavirus after returning from a trip to China has also become infected, marking the first known person-to-person transmission of the disease within the United States, health authorities said on Thursday.
The latest Illinois case brought the tally of confirmed U.S. coronavirus infections to six, none fatal, according to the Centers for Disease and Prevention ( CDC), as the number of Americans potentially exposed to the virus and placed under medical observation continued to rise.
One of 195 U.S. citizens evacuated from Wuhan, China, and voluntarily confined to a military base near Los Angeles for evaluation was slapped with a mandatory quarantine after trying to leave the facility, health officials there said on Thursday.
The quarantine order, issued Wednesday night by the county health agency, requires the individual to remain at March Air Reserve Base for the full 14-day incubation period of the virus, rather than 72 hours as prescribed by the CDC to screen evacuees before they are released.
None has shown any symptoms, a county health spokeswoman said. The quarantined person, whose identity was not disclosed, is complying with the order, she added.
The first five known U.S. patients are believed to have contracted the virus during visits to China, epicenter of the worldwide outbreak, whereas the newly diagnosed Illinois patient - confirmed by the CDC on Wednesday - was infected by his wife.
“ This is the first case of person-to-person transmission in the U.S., ” said Dr. Allison Arwady, a commissioner at the Chicago Department of Public Health. Even so, Arwady added, “ there is no local emergency. ”
Concern about the new virus has mushroomed around the world as more cases turn up outside China. Health authorities still do not know how dangerous the virus is or how easily it spreads.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the coronavirus outbreak in China a global emergency as cases spread to 18 countries. More than 200 deaths and nearly 10,000 cases have been reported in China, the vast majority in and around Wuhan, China, where it is believed to have originated in a market that traded in illegal wildlife.
Airlines were facing mounting pressure by cabin crew to stop all flights due to unease about exposure to the rapidly spreading coronavirus, with American Airlines’ pilots filing a lawsuit seeking an immediate halt
The Illinois Department of Public Health said it was tracking 21 people who had contact with the infected Illinois couple, both in their 60s. Officials said the husband had not recently taken public transportation or attended any large gatherings.
He has been in isolation the past two days after showing symptoms and was immediately hospitalized, Arwady said.
CDC experts said they were not surprised by the development and that further person-to-person cases were likely to emerge.
“ We understand that this may be concerning, but based on what we know now, we still believe the immediate risk to the American public is low, ” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said in a release on Thursday.
Following the airlift of State Department employees and other Americans from Wuhan, Washington also was evacuating non-emergency government employees and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and consulates in Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang due to the coronavirus outbreak, a State Department official said on Thursday.
The department also will charter additional evacuation flights from Wuhan, leaving on Monday or sooner, it said in a statement on its website.
Reporting by Rich McKay in Atlanta; Additional reporting by Steve Gorman and Deena Beasley in Culver City, Calif., Manas Mishra in Bangaluru and Eric Beech in Washington; Writing by Steve Gorman; Editing by Bill Tarrant and Lisa Shumaker | business |
Coronavirus: Live Updates and Coverage | [ This briefing has ended. Read about the latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak here. ]
The Trump administration is imposing temporary travel restrictions that bar entry into the United States by any foreign national who has traveled to China in the past 14 days, officials said Friday.
The restrictions, a reaction to the coronavirus that has been declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization, will be put into place at 5 p.m. on Sunday. The United States on Friday also declared the coronavirus, which has sickened nearly 12,000 people and has spread to the United States and other countries, a public health emergency.
Friday’ s action exempts immediate family members of American citizens and permanent residents.
In addition, officials said, any United States citizen returning home who has been in the Hubei province of China within the past 14 days will be quarantined for up to 14 days. Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, is in Hubei.
Those who have been to other parts of China within the past 14 days will be subject to “ proactive entry screening ” and up to 14 days of monitoring and self quarantine.
The United States will also funnel all flights from China to just a few airports, including Kennedy Airport, Chicago’ s O’ Hare and San Francisco International Airport.
The travel restrictions were announced Friday by Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, who declared that the coronavirus posed “ a public health emergency in the United States. ”
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the actions were being taken because there were “ a lot of unknowns ” surrounding the virus and its transmission path.
“ The number of cases have steeply inclined with every day, ” Dr. Fauci said.
The broadening outbreak has roiled stock markets and raised alarms about possible harm to global economic growth.
The S & P 500 suffered its sharpest decline of the year on Friday after major airlines in the United States said they would cancel flights to and from mainland China. It was the worst daily decline since October, and pushed the markets into negative territory for the year.
The cancellations by Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and United Airlines were the latest example of economic disruption wrought by the coronavirus, just as the global economy had begun to recover from the trade war tensions that dominated 2019. Companies have restricted travel to the region, shut stores in China and warned of the possible financial impact.
Economists seem certain that the travel shutdowns, factory closures and quarantines in mainland China will dampen economic activity there, but have said it is too soon to know the impact elsewhere.
“ It is a wild card — I think even the experts would confirm that it’ s too soon to tell, ” said Richard Clarida, the vice chair of the Federal Reserve, during an interview on Friday on Bloomberg Television. The Fed is “ monitoring closely, ” he said.
Here’ s what early research says about how the pathogen behaves and the factors that will determine how far it will spread.
Concerns about global growth sent oil prices down below $ 52 a barrel. That pushed shares of energy companies down: Exxon Mobil and Chevron dropped by roughly 4 percent. Tech stocks also suffered, with particular weakness in the semiconductor sector, which is closely linked to supply chains based in and around China.
Economists have only begun to sketch out estimates on the potential effects of the outbreak. Many have taken comfort from the economic record of the SARS outbreak in China in 2002 and 2003, which suggests that any downturn might be limited in scope. SARS coincided with a relatively brief slowdown of global growth in early 2003, that was followed by a sharp rebound.
SARS, however, is an imperfect comparison. Some economists have suggested the ripple effects could be larger this time. At the time of the SARS outbreak, China represented just 5 percent of the global economy. In 2019, that number was 18 percent, according to JPMorgan economists.
Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines all said on Friday that they were suspending all service to mainland China as concerns about the coronavirus spread internationally.
American said it was suspending all flights to and from mainland China immediately through March 27. American and United will continue flights to Hong Kong.
Delta and United said they would suspend service starting on Feb. 6. United said it expected to resume operations on March 28.
Delta, which does not fly to Hong Kong, said it would suspend service through April 30. Delta said in a statement that its last flight to mainland China from the United States would depart on Monday, and that its last flight to the United States from mainland China would leave on Wednesday.
Delta was the first American airline to completely suspend service to China because of the virus. United Airlines had already reduced its service to the country this week.
Share prices in all three airlines had fallen by midday.
Airlines outside the United States are also clamping down on travel. In Rwanda and Kenya, RwandAir and Kenya Airways said they would cancel all flights to and from Guangzhou, the southern Chinese metropolis, until further notice. There have been no confirmed cases in Africa.
Poland’ s national airline, LOT Polish Airlines, has suspended flights to China until Feb. 9, a deputy prime minister said on Twitter. More than a dozen people suspected of having the coronavirus are hospitalized in Poland, and over 500 people are being monitored by health services.
Iran has suspended all flights to China because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Reuters. Iran’ s semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported on Friday that all flights from China to the Islamic Republic have also been banned.
Several Canadian companies have suspended employee travel to China after Air Canada’ s decision on Wednesday to suspend service to Shanghai and Beijing. The Montreal-based carrier normally operates 33 flights a week to and from the two Chinese cities.
The United States government has imposed a federal quarantine on 195 people who were evacuated on Wednesday from Wuhan, China, to a California military base, officials said on Friday.
The group will be held at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, Calif., for 14 days, to ensure that they are not infected with the coronavirus that has sickened more than 9,800 people in China and killed more than 200 people.
Chinese officials on Saturday reported the highest death toll so far in a 24-hour period.
◆ The 46 new deaths in China raised the toll to 259.
◆ About 2,100 new cases were also recorded in the country in the past 24 hours, raising the worldwide total to nearly 12,000, according to Chinese and World Health Organization data. The vast majority of the cases are inside China; about 100 cases have been confirmed in 21 other countries.
◆ All of China’ s provinces and territories have now been touched by the outbreak.
◆ Countries and territories that have confirmed cases: Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Macau, Russia, France, the United States, South Korea, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Britain, Vietnam, Italy, India, the Philippines, Nepal, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Finland.
◆ Cases recorded in Thailand, Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam, Japan, France and the United States involved patients who had not been to China.
◆ No deaths have been reported outside China.
A call has been issued for classes to be canceled at Arizona State University. Basketball games were postponed at Miami University in Ohio. And at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville, two students from Wuhan were moved to a special dorm.
On college campuses across the United States, the global alarm over coronavirus is particularly intense. Hundreds of students are being screened for the virus. Suspected cases at many colleges — Baylor, Wesleyan and Tennessee Tech — have turned out to be false alarms, but the anxiety continues.
At A.S.U., where there is one confirmed case of coronavirus, a cough in the back of a classroom now brings nervous glances. Students who had planned to study abroad this semester are furiously adjusting schedules.
Carolyn Kleve, 20, a junior at Arizona State who is 13 weeks pregnant, is afraid.
“ We’ re trapped in a room of 20 to 30 people and I don’ t know who has what illness, ” Ms. Kleve said of her classes. “ Have I already come into contact with it? Who knows? ”
A high-ranking Chinese official said on Friday that he felt responsible for the spread of the coronavirus, offering his most direct expression of responsibility for the crisis. Many residents and experts have said that the reluctance by the government in Wuhan to warn the public about the spreading disease created dangerous complacency.
“ Above all, I feel guilty and remorseful and I reproach myself, ” said Ma Guoqiang, the Communist Party secretary of Wuhan. “ I’ ve been constantly thinking that if I’ d made the decision earlier to take the kind of strict controls we have in place now, the outcome would have been much better than now. ”
Mr. Ma was asked about his feelings in an interview on China’ s main television network, CCTV.
Wuhan’ s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, who is less powerful than Mr. Ma, said the government’ s own laws hindered faster public disclosure.
The State Department on Thursday night issued a travel advisory telling Americans not to travel to China because of the public health threat posed by the dangerous new coronavirus. The department set the new advisory at Level 4, or red — its highest alert, reserved for the most perilous situations.
“ Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice, ” the State Department said. “ Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China. ”
A spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, Hua Chunying, called the advisory an unfriendly act at a difficult time for China.
“ True feeling shines through in hardship, ” Ms. Hua said on Friday. “ Many countries have shown their support and help for China’ s fight against the epidemic. By contrast, the United States’ words and deeds are not in keeping with the facts and less are they in keeping with friendship. ”
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the outbreak a global emergency after cases were discovered in more than a dozen countries.
Singapore on Friday announced a sweeping ban on Chinese visitors and other foreigners who had been to China in the past 14 days, in an escalation of travel restrictions by the Southeast Asian transportation hub.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
The city-state will also stop issuing all forms of visas to people holding Chinese passports, Lawrence Wong, the minister for national development, said on Friday.
Singapore has 13 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. The outbreak and the entry shutdown will be another blow to its economy, which was already hit by the fallout from the United States-China trade war.
Regional neighbors and airlines from countries that have not had any confirmed cases are also taking extra precautions to cope with the rapidly spreading epidemic.
The government of Mongolia said on Friday that it would close its border with China until March 2.
The authorities said they would work to bring home 30 Mongolian nationals from Wuhan, and its citizens in China would have until Feb. 6 to return. Non-Chinese foreigners visiting Mongolia will also not be able to enter through China.
Russia, which shares a 2,600-mile border with China, has also been racing to prevent the spread of the disease. The country reported its first two coronavirus cases on Friday, both in Siberia and among Chinese nationals who had recently traveled to China.
Russia closed the border to pedestrians and cars on Thursday, and Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana A. Golikova said that Russia’ s border with Mongolia would be closed to Chinese citizens. Russia will also temporarily stop issuing work visas to Chinese citizens, she added.
On Friday, Britain’ s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said two residents had tested positive for coronavirus, the first known cases in the country.
In a statement, Mr. Whitty said the patients were members of the same family.
The announcement came as a flight carrying 83 British and 27 foreign nationals from Wuhan landed in Britain on Friday afternoon.
The Britons were to be quarantined at Arrowe Park Hospital in Wirral, in northwest England, according to the BBC. The others will be flown on to Spain.
The Italian government declared a six-month state of emergency on Friday after the first two cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Rome, according to a government official.
In a statement, the government said that it had allocated the “ necessary funds ” to begin precautionary measures. A government official said on Friday that five million euros, about $ 5.5 million, had been set aside for the effort.
Two Chinese nationals, a husband and wife, were being held in isolation at Rome’ s Spallanzani Hospital, which specializes in infectious diseases, after they tested positive for the virus.
The couple arrived in Milan a week ago and traveled to Parma and other cities before getting to Rome, where the husband began showing flu symptoms, the official said.
A group of Chinese tourists who had been traveling with the couple were also being held in isolation at the hospital, Italian officials said Friday.
At present, none of the other Chinese visitors showed any symptoms, said the Lazio region’ s councilor for health, Alessio D’ Amato, at a news conference on Friday.Three people who had come in contact with the infected couple were also being monitored at home, he also said.
On Thursday, thousands of passengers had been blocked from leaving a cruise ship that docked at an Italian port for more than 12 hours over concerns that someone aboard might have had the virus. That episode was ultimately found to be a false alarm.
In Germany, the Bavarian state Health Ministry confirmed a sixth case of the virus on Friday — the first child to be infected in the country. The child is related to another coronavirus patient identified this week.
On Friday, a German passenger jet left for China to evacuate more than 100 German citizens from Wuhan and Hubei province, according to the German foreign ministry. Although none of the people on the passenger list appear to be infected, they will spend two weeks in quarantine once they arrive in Germany.
As foreign governments evacuated their citizens from China this week, China said it was arranging chartered flights to bring Wuhan residents who were overseas back to the epicenter of the outbreak.
Citing the “ practical difficulties recently encountered ” by residents abroad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Friday that evacuations would begin as soon as possible.
Five million people from Wuhan left the city last week before travel restrictions were enforced. Unnerved by the exodus, some regional countries and territories have banned entry to people from Wuhan or Hubei province.
Travel restrictions across China and the suspension of international flights to the country have left Chinese travelers stranded around the world.
But it was unclear if the Chinese government was also targeting those who had intentionally fled the center of the outbreak. It was similarly unknown where the residents had traveled.
Someone stole 25,000 face masks from a warehouse in Hong Kong on Friday as the city, still haunted by memories of SARS, is struggling with a severe shortage.
The police said 500 boxes containing 50 masks each were reported missing from a building in an industrial neighborhood. The warehouse mostly supplied an e-commerce platform in the city, The Apple Daily newspaper reported.
The theft came as residents in Hong Kong desperately searched for the item, often displayed at inflated prices, in pharmacies and retailers. In a dangerous practice, families that can not afford new disposable masks have resorted to reusing them, according to local reports.
Reporting was contributed by Chris Buckley, Gerry Mullany, Elaine Yu, Li Yuan, E. Justin Swanson, Kate Conger, Miriam Jordan, Emma Bubola, Elisabetta Povoledo, Jason Horowitz, Geneva Abdul, Richard C. Paddock, Alex Marshall, Anton Troianovski, Joanna Berendt, Christopher Schuetze, Niraj Chokshi, Tariro Mzezewa, Mike Arnot, Denise Grady, Roni Caryn Rabin, Matt Phillips and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs. Elsie Chen, Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Amber Wang, Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
Inside the California Military Base a Coronavirus Evacuee Tried to Flee | LOS ANGELES — This week, a group of strangers came together under a warm Southern California sun. They played ball with their children. They took jogs down tree-lined paths. They watched movies in the afternoon.
They also had their temperatures taken several times a day by medical personnel. And they are not allowed to leave the premises.
This makeshift community on a military base in Riverside, Calif., is made up of evacuees from Wuhan, the city in China that is the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. The 195 people, including diplomats, infants, a football player and a theme-park designer, are among Americans who have managed to leave Wuhan since a quarantine was imposed.
[ Read about the latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak here. ]
Now they find themselves stuck in place in the United States. The federal government on Friday imposed a 14-day quarantine, retroactive to when the plane left Wuhan. The patients were initially told they had to wait at least 72 hours for medical testing to be completed.
The group arrived in the United States on Wednesday aboard the only chartered plane the State Department has flown to carry evacuees from China. As they passed time on the March Air Reserve Base, waiting until they can be cleared to leave by medical officials, some recalled unsettling, eerie final days in Wuhan and a jarring scene as the plane finally carried them away.
“ It was surreal, ” said Matthew McCoy, a theme-park designer, recalling the airplane crew members in hazardous material suits tending to passengers in masks. “ They were trying to keep us calm, but they had these guys covered from head to toe taking your temperature. It felt like a C.I.A. cargo plane. ”
To contain the spread of the virus, which has killed more than 200 people and infected thousands, people have been quarantined on a cruise ship, in hospital wards and on an island.
Late Wednesday, hours after the plane arrived in California, a passenger tried to leave the base and was intercepted, local officials in Riverside County said. A quarantine order was issued to that passenger, a spokeswoman for the county said, because of “ the unknown risks to the public should someone leave the base without undergoing a full health evaluation. ”
With ample time on their hands, the passengers performed mundane tasks.
“ I’ m working out, watching movies, eating well, ” said Jarred Evans, 27, a football player from New York City who has been living in Wuhan for two years, where he plays for the Chinese National Football League champions, the Wuhan Berserkers. He has also been through numerous checks. “ I’ ve never had my temperature taken so many times in my life, ” he said.
From his room at an inn on the military base, Mr. McCoy said, “ It’ s not Club Med, but we’ re fortunate to be here. I try to stay busy with my work, social media and my hotel workout regimen. ” The Spanish-style hotel, which boasts stucco archways and a large courtyard, faces a verdant lawn.
After a stopover in Anchorage for refueling and medical screening, the passengers were greeted in California by experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who conducted medical tests and offered psychological counseling. Noses and throats were swabbed. Blood was drawn. Temperatures were taken, again.
Some recalled bleak, sometimes terrifying, last days in Wuhan.
Mr. Evans, a former quarterback at the University of Cincinnati, moved to Wuhan when he was recruited to play for the city’ s American football team.
It had been a good season: His team had won the national championship in Shanghai on Jan. 8.
“ I fell in love with Chinese culture, ” he said, “ and I got to be the face of American football in China. ”
But when the coronavirus began spreading through Wuhan, Mr. Evans shut himself inside his apartment, stocked up with rice, noodles, eggs and disinfectant.
“ I did exactly what every Chinese person did, ” he said.
“ I locked myself in. The city turned into a ghost town, ” Mr. Evans said. But he felt isolated, he said, and his mother, back in the United States, was worried for his safety.
When he heard of a flight out of the country, he quickly filled out the online forms. An email from the United States Embassy in Beijing arrived, which read: “ Space on this flight is extremely limited and we respectfully request that you not share details regarding the flight, including on social media. ”
Mr. Evans learned that he was No. 171 on a flight that could accommodate about 200, he said. “ I felt very lucky to be chosen out of all U.S. residents in Wuhan, ” he said. Some Americans reported that they had tried to get a seat on the flight but were told there was no room.
Mr. McCoy, who lives in Shanghai, was in Wuhan working on a mall he is refashioning into a theme park when he got caught in the lockdown.
Updated June 22, 2020
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “ comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort ” and requires “ balancing benefits versus possible adverse events. ” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “ In my personal experience, ” he says, “ heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask. ” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’ t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’ s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
The atmosphere in the city was “ just short of panic, ” he recalled.
A former Marine who has run 12 marathons and stays in good shape, Mr. McCoy said he was convinced he had not contracted the virus. But he still took the outbreak seriously. He decided it was worth plunking down $ 1,100 for a one-way ticket to the United States.
When the American group left Wuhan, it had been made aware it would have to remain in an isolated location for at least 72 hours.
“ This quarantine will occur for a minimum of 72 hours and may extend through 14 days or may be followed by conditional release with health monitoring, ” said an email that he received before the flight. Mr. McCoy said that had not troubled most people. “ Everyone was cool with that. We are trying to be patriots, trying to help, ” he said. “ We’ re a captive audience here. ”
On Thursday morning, their first full day back in the United States, the group downed breakfast burritos, juice and coffee. For lunch, they received a hearty taco salad with chicken.
An invitation slipped under the doors of the hotel rooms promised a “ town hall discussion. ” Federal health officials urged the group to remain on the base until receiving full medical clearance.
Now it was a matter of waiting.
Outside, there were refreshments, chips, cookies and toys. Scooters, footballs, soccer balls and Frisbees were available.
“ People here have been really nice, ” Mr. Evans said. “ Everybody is in great spirits. Nobody is panicking or freaking out. ”
There is no shaking hands or hugging, though, and most people were keeping on their masks.
Susan C. Beachy contributed research from New York. | business |
Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’ s origins | As part of a long-running effort to see what viruses bats harbor, researchers in China examine one temporarily captured in a cave in Guandong.
By Jon CohenJan. 31, 2020, 6:20 PM
attaaaggtt tataccttcc caggtaacaa accaaccaac tttcgatctc ttgtagatct …
That string of apparent gibberish is anything but: It’ s a snippet of a DNA sequence from the viral pathogen, dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV), that is overwhelming China and frightening the entire world. Scientists are publicly sharing an ever-growing number of full sequences of the virus from patients—53 at last count in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database. These viral genomes are being intensely studied to try to understand the origin of 2019-nCoV and how it fits on the family tree of related viruses found in bats and other species. They have also given glimpses into what this newly discovered virus physically looks like, how it’ s changing, and how it might be stopped.
“ One of the biggest takeaway messages [ from the viral sequences ] is that there was a single introduction into humans and then human-to-human spread, ” says Trevor Bedford, a bioinformatics specialist at the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. The role of Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, in spreading 2019-nCoV remains murky, though such sequencing, combined with sampling the market’ s environment for the presence of the virus, is clarifying that it indeed had an important early role in amplifying the outbreak. The viral sequences, most researchers say, also knock down the idea the pathogen came from a virology institute in Wuhan.
In all, 2019-nCoV has nearly 29,000 nucleotides bases that hold the genetic instruction book to produce the virus. Although it’ s one of the many viruses whose genes are in the form of RNA, scientists convert the viral genome into DNA, with bases known in shorthand as A, T, C, and G, to make it easier to study. Many analyses of 2019-nCoV’ s sequences have already appeared on virological.org, nextstrain.org, preprint servers like bioRxiv, and even in peer-reviewed journals. The sharing of the sequences by Chinese researchers allowed public health labs around the world to develop their own diagnostics for the virus, which now has been found in 18 other countries. ( Science's news stories on the outbreak can be found here.)
When the first 2019-nCoV sequence became available, researchers placed it on a family tree of known coronaviruses—which are abundant and infect many species—and found that it was most closely related to relatives found in bats. A team led by Shi Zheng-Li, a coronavirus specialist at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, reported on 23 January on bioRxiv that 2019-nCoV’ s sequence was 96.2% similar to a bat virus and had 79.5% similarity to the coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), a disease whose initial outbreak was also in China more than 15 years ago. But the SARS coronavirus has a similarly close relationship to bat viruses, and sequence data make a powerful case that it jumped into people from a coronavirus in civets that differed from human SARS viruses by as few as 10 nucleotides. That’ s one reason why many scientists suspect there’ s an “ intermediary ” host species—or several—between bats and 2019-nCoV.
According to Bedford’ s analysis, the bat coronavirus sequence that Shi Zheng-Li’ s team highlighted, dubbed RaTG13, differs from 2019-nCoV by nearly 1100 nucleotides. On nextstrain.org, a site he co-founded, Bedford has created coronavirus family trees ( example below) that include bat, civet, SARS, and 2019-nCoV sequences. ( The trees are interactive—by dragging a computer mouse over them, it’ s easy to see the differences and similarities between the sequences.)
Bedford’ s analyses of RaTG13 and 2019-nCoV suggest that the two viruses shared a common ancestor 25 to 65 years ago, an estimate he arrived at by combining the difference in nucleotides between the viruses with the presumed rates of mutation in other coronaviruses. So it likely took decades for RaTG13-like viruses to mutate into 2019-nCoV.
Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS), another human disease caused by a coronavirus, similarly has a link to bat viruses. But studies have built a compelling case it jumped to humans from camels. And the phylogenetic tree from Shi’ s bioRxiv paper ( below) makes the camel-MERS link easy to see.
The longer a virus circulates in a human populations, the more time it has to develop mutations that differentiate strains in infected people, and given that the 2019-nCoV sequences analyzed to date differ from each other by seven nucleotides at most, this suggests it jumped into humans very recently. But it remains a mystery which animal spread the virus to humans. “ There’ s a very large gray area between viruses detected in bats and the virus now isolated in humans, ” says Vincent Munster, a virologist at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who studies coronaviruses in bats, camels, and others species.
Strong evidence suggests the marketplace played an early role in spreading 2019-nCoV, but whether it was the origin of the outbreak remains uncertain. Many of the initially confirmed 2019-nCoV cases—27 of the first 41 in one report, 26 of 47 in another—were connected to the Wuhan market, but up to 45%, including the earliest handful, were not. This raises the possibility that the initial jump into people happened elsewhere.
According to Xinhua, the state-run news agency, “ environmental sampling ” of the Wuhan seafood market has found evidence of 2019-nCoV. Of the 585 samples tested, 33 were positive for 2019-nCoV and all were in the huge market’ s western portion, which is where wildlife were sold. “ The positive tests from the wet market are hugely important, ” says Edward Holmes, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Sydney who collaborated with the first group to publicly release a 2019-nCoV sequence. “ Such a high rate of positive tests would strongly imply that animals in the market played a key role in the emergence of the virus. ”
Yet there have been no preprints or official scientific reports on the sampling, so it’ s not clear which, if any, animals tested positive. “ Until you consistently isolate the virus out of a single species, it’ s really, really difficult to try and determine what the natural host is, ” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research.
One possible explanation for the confusion about where the virus first entered humans is if there was a batch of recently infected animals sold at different marketplaces. Or an infected animal trader could have transmitted the virus to different people at different markets. Or, Bedford suggests, those early cases could have been infected by viruses that didn’ t easily transmit and sputtered out. “ It would be hugely helpful to have just a sequence or two from the marketplace [ environmental sampling ] that could illuminate how many zoonoses occurred and when they occurred, ” Bedford says.
A research group sent fecal and other bodily samples from bats they trapped in caves to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to search for coronaviruses.
In the absence of clear conclusions about the outbreak’ s origin, theories thrive, and some have been scientifically shaky. A sequence analysis led by Wei Ji of Peking University and published online by the Journal of Medical Virology received substantial press coverage when it suggested that “ snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019‐nCoV. ” Sequence specialists, however, pilloried it.
Conspiracy theories also abound. A CBC News report about the Canadian government deporting Chinese scientists who worked in a Winnipeg lab that studies dangerous pathogens was distorted on social media to suggest that they were spies who had smuggled out coronaviruses. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the premier lab in China that studies bat and human coronaviruses, has also come under fire. “ Experts debunk fringe theory linking China’ s coronavirus to weapons research, ” read a headline on a story in The Washington Post that focused on the facility.
Concerns about the institute predate this outbreak. Nature ran a story in 2017 about it building a new biosafety level 4 lab and included molecular biologist Richard Ebright of Rutgers University, Piscataway, expressing concerns about accidental infections, which he noted repeatedly happened with lab workers handling SARS in Beijing. Ebright, who has a long history of raising red flags about studies with dangerous pathogens, also in 2015 criticized an experiment in which modifications were made to a SARS-like virus circulating in Chinese bats to see whether it had the potential to cause disease in humans. Earlier this week, Ebright questioned the accuracy of Bedford’ s calculation that there are at least 25 years of evolutionary distance between RaTG13—the virus held in the Wuhan virology institute—and 2019-nCoV, arguing that the mutation rate may have been different as it passed through different hosts before humans. Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “ consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident. ”
Shi did not reply to emails from Science, but her longtime collaborator, disease ecologist Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, dismissed Ebright’ s conjecture. “ Every time there’ s an emerging disease, a new virus, the same story comes out: This is a spillover or the release of an agent or a bioengineered virus, ” Daszak says. “ It’ s just a shame. It seems humans can’ t resist controversy and these myths, yet it’ s staring us right in the face. There’ s this incredible diversity of viruses in wildlife and we’ ve just scratched the surface. Within that diversity, there will be some that can infect people and within that group will be some that cause illness. ”
A team of researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the EcoHealth Alliance have trapped bats in caves all over China, like this one in Guangdong, to sample them for coronaviruses.
Daszak and Shi’ s group have for 8 years been trapping bats in caves around China to sample their feces and blood for viruses. He says they have sampled more than 10,000 bats and 2000 other species. They have found some 500 novel coronaviruses, about 50 of which fall relatively close to the SARS virus on the family tree, including RaTG13—it was fished out of a bat fecal sample they collected in 2013 from a cave in Moglang in Yunnan province. “ We can not assume that just because this virus from Yunnan has high sequence identity with the new one that that’ s the origin, ” Daszak says, noting that only a tiny fraction of coronaviruses that infect bats have been discovered. “ I expect that once we’ ve sampled and sampled and sampled across southern China and central China that we’ re going to find many other viruses and some of them will be closer [ to 2019-nCoV ]. ”
It’ s not just a “ curious interest ” to figure out what sparked the current outbreak, Daszak says. “ If we don't find the origin, it could still be a raging infection at a farm somewhere, and once this outbreak dies, there could be a continued spillover that’ s really hard to stop. But the jury is still out on what the real origins of this are. ” | science |
Trump Administration Restricts Entry Into U.S. From China | Read about the latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak here.
Moving to counter the spreading coronavirus outbreak, the Trump administration said Friday that it would bar entry by most foreign nationals who had recently visited China and put some American travelers under a quarantine as it declared a rare public health emergency.
The temporary restrictions followed announcements by American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines that they would suspend air service between the United States and China for several months.
The travel disruption sent shocks through the stock market and rattled industries that depend on the flow of goods and people between the world’ s two largest economies. Planning was upended for companies across a vast global supply chain, from Apple to John Deere, the tractor company.
The S & P 500 suffered its worst loss since October, falling 1.8 percent, as the spread of the virus — and the increasingly urgent efforts by companies and governments to contain it — fanned fears of an economic slowdown.
The government travel restrictions, which will take effect on Sunday evening, were announced by Alex Azar, the secretary of health and human services, who declared that the coronavirus posed “ a public health emergency in the United States. ”
The administration’ s action will restrict all foreign nationals who have been to China in the past 14 days from entering the United States. The restriction does not include immediate family members of American citizens and permanent residents. Nearly three million Chinese residents traveled to the United States in 2018, according to federal data based on travel records.
The travel restrictions and the airline’ s announcements showed how rapidly concerns about the virus have escalated into a grave test of the global economy, for which there is no recent precedent. Three weeks after the first virus-related death was reported, China has found itself increasingly cut off from its biggest trading partner, the United States, and many other nations.
Chinese officials said on Saturday that there had been an additional 46 deaths in the country, the most so far in a 24-hour period, raising the death toll to 259. It said confirmed infections had grown to nearly 12,000, from 1,300 a week earlier.
About 100 cases have been confirmed across 21 other countries, including seven reported cases in the United States. Russia, Italy and Britain each reported their first infections on Friday, two from each country. The four patients in Italy and Russia were Chinese citizens, the authorities there said; Britain did not release any details.
To address the outbreak, China has extended the Lunar New Year holiday, which was to have ended Thursday, into next week. In cities across the country, including those far from the center of the outbreak, there were eerie scenes Friday of all-but-empty streets and highways, closed shops, trains without passengers and nearly deserted public spaces that are normally packed. | business |
State Department Warns Against Traveling to China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak | The State Department on Thursday night issued an advisory telling Americans not to travel to China because of the public health threat posed by the coronavirus, as world health officials grappled with the expanding footprint of the outbreak.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed the travel advisory on Twitter, saying that the department had raised its advisory for China to Level 4, and to red from orange — meaning do not travel there.
Mr. Pompeo cited a decision by the World Health Organization earlier Thursday to declare the coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern.
“ Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice, ” the advisory said. “ Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China. ”
The State Department said Americans who were in China should consider leaving via commercial transportation. It also requested that all nonessential United States government personnel hold off on traveling to China.
In China, at least 213 people had died from the virus as of early Friday, the authorities said. The total number of cases worldwide was approaching 10,000, according to Chinese and World Health Organization data. The vast majority of cases were in China.
The warning by the State Department came on the same day that the first person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus in the United States was reported. An Illinois man had contracted the virus from his wife, who had recently visited Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus. Both were hospitalized.
Also on Thursday, the union for 15,000 American Airlines pilots filed a lawsuit in Dallas County Court in Texas seeking a temporary restraining order to suspend flights to China. The union, the Allied Pilots Association, said that British Airways, Air Canada and Lufthansa had already suspended service to China.
“ We estimate that as many as 300 passengers and crew travel to DFW alone from Chinese cities on each American Airlines flight, ” Eric Ferguson, the union’ s president and a captain for American, said in a statement, referring to Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, the airline’ s largest hub. “ To us, that level of risk is unacceptable.’’
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
The union said it had directed American Airlines pilots to decline flight assignments to China unless they were part of a return trip. It said that airline regulations required pilots to remain on the ground in China for about 32 hours so that they could get adequate rest.
The State Department has previously issued Level 4 advisories warning Americans not to travel to at least 12 other countries, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, North Korea and Iran, where the department cited the risk of kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of United States citizens.
Other countries placed under a Level 4 travel advisory include Mali, because of crime, terrorism, and kidnapping; Venezuela, because of crime, civil unrest, poor health infrastructure, kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of Americans; and Burkina Faso, because of terrorism, crime and kidnapping.
Michael Levenson contributed reporting. | business |
Luckin Coffee Stock Drops as Short Sellers Respond to Fraud Claim | Luckin Coffee stock fell as much as 26% before recovering some of the lost ground.
Photograph by Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images
Luckin Coffee
has more to worry about than the coronavirus. Short sellers are squaring off over the Chinese beverage chain.
The stock plunged as much as 26% Friday after the short-selling shop Muddy Waters Research said it was
shorting Luckin
( ticker: LK) shares. Muddy Waters said it decided to bet that the stock will fall after receiving
an 89-page anonymous report
that accused Luckin of fraud.
Shares regained much of the lost ground as Citron Research—also known as a short seller—said on Twitter that it
also received the report
Muddy Waters shared. Citron said that rather than selling Luckin short, it is holding the stock.
“ Citron has respect for Muddy, but this anon. report will fall short on accuracy. Expect LK management response, ” Citron tweeted.
Luckin didn’ t immediately respond to requests for comment. Shares were down 15.4% at $ 30.80 in early afternoon.
Luckin’ s stock was under pressure even before Muddy Waters said it was betting against the shares. The chain has temporarily closed stores in China in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
Starbucks ( SBUX) also closed
coffee shops in the country. It has delayed updating its financial guidance for 2020 until it has a better grasp of how the closures will affect the business.
Luckin listed its stock on the Nasdaq last year,
raising $ 561 million in its debut.
Though only founded two years ago, the company quickly expanded in China and now has roughly 4,000 locations.
The stock
quickly soared as Wall Street
warmed to its delivery options and promises to expand its menu.
But the critics behind the anonymous report Muddy Waters released said that Luckin has a “ fundamentally broken business ” and accused it of “ fraud. ” The people behind the report said full- and part-time Luckin staff they enlisted to help with their research collected 11,260 hours of video of store traffic.
Write to
Carleton English at
carleton.english @ dowjones.com | business |
IHSE Upgrades its KVM Solutions with Location-Independent Access | IHSE has expanded the connectivity of its KVM solutions to include location-independent access over an IP interface.
This provides remote users with seamless and secure access to closed and self-contained Draco KVM installations.
The new Secure IP Remote Access Gateway CON module connects the KVM matrix to private or public TCP/IP networks. This allows very high-performance remote access to matrix-connected target devices via an HTML browser or soft client.
The IP module isolates the matrix and KVM system. SecureCore technology prevents direct access to the matrix from the IP network. This maintains the integrity of the KVM system and is consistent with the IHSE philosophy of secure separation of core matrix and TCP / IP networks as an effective countermeasure to potential cyber-attacks.
HTML-5.0-based browser access provides maximum flexibility for mobile devices. Windows® and Linux-based client software provide additional performance and functionality.
The IP module offers excellent image quality with 1080p60 video signal at 8-bit colour depth. 4K resolution with 30fps can also be achieved. At all resolutions, signal latency is below 50ms.
Near real-time performance can be achieved without dedicated receiver hardware. Instead, the receiver is mapped as a receiving device using PC hardware. The network technology requirements are low: the Secure IP Remote Access Gateway does not require elaborate multicast architectures, nor does it need the high bandwidths of equivalent systems.
For installations that do not require full matrix switching capability, IHSE offers an IP module for direct computer connection. In this configuration, individual computers can be accessed and operated remotely via IP networks. Additional local outputs ( signal feed-through) allow users to access the local computer at the same time.
The Secure IP Access Gateway CON is designed for use with Draco tera KVM switches and is seamlessly compatible with the Draco vario extender series and Draco vario chassis. In addition to remote access, it offers HDMI and USB interfaces for local access to rack or workplace levels. Variants for Cat X and fibre optic cables are available; both in redundant formats.
Orders for the new IP modules are now being accepted.
Enterprises are built around people who need to access data, communicate with each other, and...
In the new major international airport in Berlin-Brandenburg, KVM technology from the German developer and...
In the new major international airport in Berlin-Brandenburg, keyboard, video and mouse ( KVM) technology from...
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries have instigated social distance measures for their...
| general |
' I am not a virus ': France's Asian community pushes back over xenophobia | In a southeastern Paris district known as the go-to place for Asian cuisine, business is down at Pascal Corlier’ s Vietnamese restaurant, a side-effect of China’ s coronavirus health scare that has sparked panic and a rise in xenophobic incidents.
Some nervous customers have begun to ask waiting staff if they are Chinese, according to Corlier, whose Vietnamese father-in-law runs the kitchen and serves up traditional dishes like pho soup. Others are simply staying away.
“ There’ s a sort of unfounded psychosis setting in around the Asian community and Asian food, ” the restaurateur said, adding that his revenues were down 40% for the first few weeks of 2020 compared to the same period a year ago.
The virus outbreak that began in the central Chinese city of Wuhan has infected more than 9,800 people - mostly in China but with some 130 cases in 24 countries and regions outside mainland China, including six cases in France. It has killed 213 people in China and sparked a wave of travel curbs and other efforts to stop the spread, both inside China and abroad.
As well as Chinese nationals, France’ s big Asian community includes many people of Cambodian and Laotian descent, and one of the largest contingents of Vietnamese overseas — a legacy of France’ s former colonial presence in south-east Asia.
Asians in France this week created a Twitter hashtag # Jenesuispasunvirus ( “ I am not a virus ”) to signal abuse. Racist incidents, slights and slurs have been reported from the school playground to supermarkets, according to Laetitia Chhiv, who runs an association for young people of Chinese descent.
“ We had a student of Chinese origin in Strasbourg who was shouted at by a woman who told him not to touch the avocados she wanted to buy, ” Chhiv said. “ That was after she asked him where he was from and whether he had the virus. ”
Worries over the virus are reverberating across Paris in other ways too, with high-end stores that rely on Chinese tour groups hurting as the flow of visitors dries up. At some retailers, staff said French customers were also staying away, partly out of fear of mingling with Asian clients.
“ Racism against Asians is spreading even faster than the virus, ” said Sun-Lay Tan, who works in the art world and is French-born of Chinese and Cambodian descent.
“ I was sitting on the metro on my way to work and the person next to me edged a few centimeters away and put his scarf over his mouth. I was shocked. ”
Corlier, the restaurant owner, whose wife is from Vietnam, said even his children had felt stigmatized and saw people covering their faces.
A Chinese teacher at a prestigious Parisian high school wrote to parents this week to explain she had not traveled to China in years, according to an email seen by Reuters.
“ People are panicking, so it’ s hard to hold it against them, ” Corlier said. “ But they have to take a step back... and look at the facts. ”
Reporting by Caroline Pailliez, Johnny Cotton and Noemie Olive; Writing by Sarah White; Editing by Frances Kerry | business |
RPT-GRAPHIC-Why the 'devil ' coronavirus has hit European stocks hard | ( Repeats to additional Reuters services, no changes to text)
By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Julien Ponthus
LONDON, Jan 31 ( Reuters) - The coronavirus scare has wiped $ 1.2 trillion from global stock markets in the last two weeks as new cases of the deadly virus multiplied, stoking fears of an economic slowdown spreading from its Chinese epicentre to the rest of the world.
With the death toll rising to 213 despite travel restrictions, the impact was most evident in European equity markets in shares of companies which pocket the bulk of their revenues from China, the world’ s fastest-growing consumer market.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index is poised for its biggest weekly loss in four months, while among individual stocks Germany’ s Infineon, which gets two-thirds of its revenue from China, has fallen 10% despite strong quarterly results from Apple, its biggest customer.
The Goldman Sachs’ “ China exposure ” basket of European stocks has slumped 5% this week alone.
Elsewhere Electrolux shares dropped on Friday after the group warned the outbreak would hit its sourcing of products and components from China. Supply chains are seen as among the key issues arising from the virus, with companies as diverse as Apple, Starbucks and Autoliv warning of potential disruption.
Major names in travel, luxury and retail globally have also been hit as hundreds of millions of people who were preparing to travel for the Chinese holidays cancelled their plans.
Royal Caribbean Cruises shares for instance have lost 12% of their value since Jan. 17 and the company has warned that its 2020 earnings would be impacted by cancellations.
Yet the virus - which Chinese President Xi Jinping has described as a “ devil ” - has had a bigger impact on European companies than their U.S. peers due to their high exposure to China.
Analysts have drawn comparisons with the deadly SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, but the read-across is limited as China’ s share of global gross domestic product has quadrupled since then to 16%. Several global airlines cancelled flights to China and in Europe shares of long-haul operators Air France and Lufthansa have been on the decline for the past two weeks.
In the hospitality sector, Intercontinental Hotels Group and Accor were also beaten down.
Topping it all, the non consumer-facing mining sector was the hardest hit in Europe, falling 8% on concerns that the coronavirus will cut China’ s gigantic appetite for commodities.
The graphic below shows how Europe’ s miners have among the biggest revenue exposures to China.
Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Julien Ponthus Additional reporting by Joice Alves and Danilo Masoni Editing by David Holmes | business |
Imperial Oil says 'it makes good economic sense ' to move crude by rail | Canada’ s Imperial Oil Ltd ( IMO.TO) on Friday vowed to move more crude-by-rail to take most advantage of exemptions on production curtailments imposed by the Alberta government.
Last year, Alberta introduced mandatory production limits to cut oversupply that was choking export pipelines, and later extended the restrictions into 2020 due to slow progress in building new pipelines.
The rare government intervention into Canada’ s oil industry has helped shore up prices, but faced heavy criticism from integrated producers in the region who argue the move is stifling growth.
In December, producers were allowed exemptions on the curtailments if they committed to move oil by rail instead of pipelines.
Imperial said it will continue to ramp up its crude-by-rail commitment, and sees January shipments from its Edmonton Rail terminal to be over 100,000 barrels a day.
“ We see with the current differentials and arbitrage, it makes good economic sense for us to ship barrels on the rail, ” said new Chief Executive Officer Brad Corson of the integrated oil company.
Imperial took a hit to its refining margins in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, as the curtailments propped up prices of Canadian heavy crude, reducing the benefit in refining the low-cost oil.
Its downstream earnings fell over 80% to C $ 225 million, partially impacted by planned turnaround activities.
U.S. refiner Phillips 66 also reported muted refining margins for the fourth quarter on Friday, hit by turnarounds and lower margins on higher Canadian crude prices.
“ I’ m encouraged by the comments that the Alberta government has made where they’ ve indicated they would expect curtailment to be eliminated by the end of the year, ” said Corson, a veteran of majority-owner Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM.N) who took the helm early January.
Imperial reported a profit of 36 Canadian cents per share in the quarter, while analysts had expected a profit of 35 Canadian cents.
The company’ s average gross production of 398,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ( boepd) beat estimates of 388,243 boepd, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Overall, Imperial delivered a strong quarter with the completion of Kearl’ s supplemental crushing facilities in Alberta providing line of sight to increased reliability, Scotiabank analysts said in a note.
Shares of the company fell 2.7% to C $ 23.75 as crude prices were hit by rising worries over the potential economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak.
Reporting by Shanti S Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Shinjini Ganguli | business |
China auto sector braces for hefty virus impact, hopes it will be short-lived | The new coronavirus epidemic is likely to wreak havoc on China auto sales and production in the first quarter, but it is too early to push panic buttons as ground could be made up later in the year, industry executives said.
Showroom traffic is expected to be sparse when extended Lunar New Year holidays end as much of the population is steering clear of public spaces, while output is set to plunge in the short-term.
That is particularly true of Hubei province, the center of the outbreak and a major car manufacturing hub that accounts for nearly 9% of China’ s vehicle production. Dongfeng Motor Group ( 0489.HK) and its partners Honda Motor ( 7267.T), Renault ( RENA.PA) and PSA ( PEUP.PA) all have factories there.
“ We expect ( China) vehicle production to decline 3% for the full year, with production down 15% in the first quarter, including the extended new year shutdown, ” Joseph Massaro, CFO for auto technology supplier Aptiv ( APTV.N), told an earnings conference call.
But he said delayed production could be made up in the second quarter. “ We don’ t view this as a full year issue at the moment. ”
Seeking to rein in the epidemic, which has killed more than 200 people, authorities have extended Lunar New Year holidays by three days to Feb. 2 although many areas and companies are telling workers not to come back before Feb. 10.
Prior to the outbreak, forecasts for the world’ s largest auto market this year had ranged from mild sales growth to small declines after two painful years of contraction due to a slowing economy, the U.S.-China trade war and the chaotic introduction of new emission rules.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general at the China Passenger Car Association ( CPCA), said his prediction for 1% growth this year now seems “ under some pressure ”.
The holiday extension has discouraged dealers from ordering cars at the end of the month as is their usual practice, virtually guaranteeing a decline in sales for January.
“ Although sales volumes in the first three weeks of January were okay, there was no ‘ sales sprint’ at the end of the month. So it is inevitable that we will see a significant sales drop, ” Cui said in a blog post.
The big unknown is, however, just how far the outbreak, which authorities expect to peak in February, will ravage Chinese consumer spending.
Industry officials and analysts believe sales will be hit in the short-term but also say the impact might not be too bad over the whole year.
The outbreak could even spur more Chinese consumers to embark on car ownership, given that many are suffering in areas where public transport has been suspended, said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight.
“ Customers who do not have their own car might realize they need one which might help sales this year, ” he said.
China has an estimated 170 vehicles per 1,000 people compared to 800 per 1,000 in the United States.
CPCA’ s Cui also noted the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic had little long-term impact on China’ s passenger car market which grew 70% in 2003, albeit from a low base and helped by economic stimulus.
Automakers with plants in Hubei, particularly in its capital Wuhan, where transport links have been cut to curb the virus, will have the most work to do in rejigging production plans. Delays can often be made up later with extra shifts on weekends and at night.
Honda, which has three assembly plants in Wuhan with Dongfeng, said it was assessing how transport disruptions were affecting the supply of parts and that no decision had been made on when its factories will restart. Dongfeng, Renault and PSA also said no decision had been made on when production might resume.
Other automakers with operations in Hubei include Nissan Motor Co ( 7201.T) which has a plant with Dongfeng and General Motors Co ( GM.N) which has a venture with SAIC Motor Co ( 600104.SS). Nissan and GM did not respond to requests for comment.
Outside Hubei, some automakers appeared more sanguine about their production schedules.
Tesla Inc ( TSLA.O), which started delivering cars built at its $ 2 billion car plant in Shanghai last month, has said it expects a delay of just one to one-and-a-half weeks in its ramp up of China-built Model 3s due to the shutdown.
In a sign, however, that the virus impact was not just limited to China, Hyundai Motor ( 005380.KS) said it is suspending some SUV output in South Korea this weekend as parts supplies had been disrupted.
Reporting by Yilei Sun in Shanghai and Norihiko Shirouzu in Beijing; Additional reporting by Shanghai newsroom and Hyunjoo Jin and Joyce Lee in Seoul; Editing by Brenda Goh and Edwina Gibbs | business |
Surge in virus infections stokes fear in cities flanking China's Wuhan | A jump in infections in two Chinese cities flanking Wuhan, the epicentre of a rapidly-spreading virus epidemic, is fuelling fear that new hot spots are emerging in a province where strict transport curbs have already brought most activity to a halt.
China’ s central province of Hubei has been the site of almost 60% of infections, as well as more than 95% of deaths, in an episode the World Health Organization has declared a global health emergency.
But the province’ s two cities of Huanggang and Xiaogan, with combined populations of more than 12 million, have racked up more than 11% of global infections and deaths.
To see graphic, please click here
As the virus in these cities spreads faster than in Wuhan itself and other sites outside a lockdown zone, the first dismissal of a senior health official in Hubei has spurred authorities to push for more effective measures.
“ Medical supplies are in very short supply, ” provincial governor Wang Xiaodong said. “ Not only are there shortages in Wuhan and surrounding cities, but they are generally severely deficient in other parts of the province. ”
Conditions in Huanggang, which had reported 573 infections and 12 deaths, are particularly severe, he warned in remarks on Wednesday, urging every effort to keep the city from becoming a second Wuhan.
Tang Zhihong, the head of Huanggang’ s health commission, was dismissed on Thursday after state television broadcast images that showed her unable to respond to questions about the number of hospital beds and patients in the city.
Huanggang had insufficient screening procedures for suspected cases, slow testing processes and lack of testing personnel, inspectors from China’ s central government has found.
By Wednesday, its tally of suspected cases exceeded 1,000.
Both cities have been all but locked down since public transport was banned last week and traffic blockades were set up to limit people’ s movement.
Quarantine measures can be effective, but may have a negative impact, medical experts have warned.
“ The lockdown may hamper the delivery of medical and other essential supplies to the region, ” said Sanjaya Senanayake, a professor of medicine at the Australian National University.
“ People within the lockdown zone may lose trust in authorities, ” he said, adding that fear of coronavirus infection could deter even those with other illnesses from going to hospital.
To the northwest of Wuhan is Xiaogan, the third-largest centre of the outbreak, which has reported more than 540 cases and nine deaths and saw a rise of 35% in cases on Thursday from the previous day, versus 16% in Wuhan.
By Friday, there were 9,692 infections in China and 213 deaths, including 5,806 cases and 204 deaths in Hubei, national health authorities said.
Reporting by Cate Cadell; Editing by Clarence Fernandez | business |
Air travel fears due to coronavirus to sap oil demand | A coronavirus outbreak in China could cut oil demand by over 250,000 barrels per day ( bpd) in the first quarter of this year and drag on oil prices already beleaguered by oversupply, analysts and traders say.
The blow - equivalent to the capacity of a large oil refinery - will land mostly on demand for jet fuel in China, both the world’ s top oil importer and one of the world’ s fastest-growing aviation markets, as strict travel curbs limit domestic travel and international carriers shun the country.
“ As preventive measures focus mainly on aviation and public passenger transport, jet fuel will be the most susceptible... for Q1 2020, China’ s oil demand could be reduced by over 250,000 bpd, ” said Yujiao Lei of Wood Mackenzie, and the energy consultancy lowered its forecast for world oil demand by 500,000 bpd for the same period.
“ The ongoing coronavirus outbreak will likely be a one-off event, with its effect on oil demand focusing mainly on jet demand principally in China and to a lesser degree in East and Southeast Asia, ” she added.
( Graphic: China oil demand year-on-year change - here)
The virus has spread to more than 9,800 people globally, surpassing the total from the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic and killing 213 people — all of them in China.
Several Chinese cities have levied strict travel curbs while global airlines have suspended or scaled back direct flights to China’ s major cities.
Consultancy JLC said Chinese refinery activity had plunged by 15% in the last week, and a Chinese international trade agency said on Friday it would offer force majeure certificates for firms unable to meet contracts due to the virus.
The virus scare has already begun to warp crude oil and products markets worldwide.
Asian refining margins for jet fuel languished close to their lowest in 2-1/2-year, while asking prices for crude varieties from as far afield as Angola, once coveted in the Chinese market, fell to their lowest levels in around a year.
FGE energy estimated as much as 840,000 barrels per day in February, but the market appeared braced for an impact on the wider economy should efforts to contain the sickness fail.
“ As the peak of the contagion has yet to materialise much uncertainty remains on the impact on China’ s economy and global growth, ” Fitch Solutions Macro Research wrote in a note.
“ The impact on China’ s economy will be material the longer the virus takes to abate. ”
( This story removes extraneous word from first paragraph)
Reporting by Noah Browning, editing by Louise Heavens | business |
Coronavirus: how worried should I be about the shortage of face masks? Or can I just use a scarf? | The World Health Organisation ( WHO) has just declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
There have been nearly 10,000 cases of the so-called 2019-nCoV in China, 23 countries affected and more than 213 deaths globally.
China, Germany, the US and several other countries confirmed the virus can spread person to person, even from people without any symptoms.
Now there are reports of face mask shortages around the world, including Australia, the US and in many cities of China.
For a disease with no drug or vaccine yet, non-pharmaceutical measures are the mainstay of control. This includes personal protective equipment, such as face masks.
But the type of face masks we typically see ( surgical masks) do not provide a seal around the face or filtration of airborne particles, like those that may carry coronavirus.
They do however provide a limited physical barrier against you transferring the virus from your hand to the face, or from large droplets and splashes of fluid.
You also need to put on and remove your mask properly, as this advice from the World Health Organisation shows.
Disposable respirators reduce the risk of respiratory infections. They are designed to fit around the face and to filter 95% of airborne particles. However, these should be reserved for health workers, who need them most.
In the disease epicentre, Wuhan, or on an evacuation flight out of Wuhan, face masks are a sensible precaution. They are also needed in other Chinese cities that are affected by the outbreak and where transmission is ongoing.
However, in countries where transmission is not widespread and there are only a handful of cases being treated in hospital isolation rooms, masks serve no purpose in the community.
For example, there is no need for the general public to use face masks in Australia, US and other counties where a few imported cases are reported, and the risk of catching the virus is low.
Panic buying will result in a lack of supplies when we need them most, for instance, if the number of cases escalates dramatically. During the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, the WHO did not recommend the general public use face masks.
The case is different for health workers, who face greater risks. It is essential we provide health workers with the best protection, because if they get sick or die, we lose our ability to fight the epidemic. During the SARS epidemic, 21% of all cases globally were health workers.
Read more: SARS, MERS...? Preparing for the next coronavirus pandemic
This is a concern, especially if people hoard or stockpile face masks when there is no need. We saw a shortage of masks early during the 2009 influenza pandemic. The surge in demand during such events also results in higher prices.
Countries have started releasing stockpiles of masks and other personal protective equipment to the health system. For example, the Australian government this week released one million masks for general practices and pharmacists from the national medical stockpile.
There is also an existing shortage of masks in some areas of Australia due to the bushfire response and face masks from the national stockpile have mainly been released in those areas.
The number of cases is expected to increase and a large quantity of face masks may be needed.
If the current situation becomes a pandemic ( an epidemic that goes global), we could be facing a much greater demand for personal protective equipment in the health sector alone.
In a modelled serious epidemic in Sydney of smallpox, if health workers use two disposable respirators a day for 6 months, over 30 million respirators will be needed for 100,000 clinical health workers.
China is the largest producer of face masks globally and it has already stepped up production to meet the high demand.
If large outbreaks happen in other countries, China may not be able to meet the demand of face masks, respirators and other medical supplies.
Another problem is the sale of low-quality face masks due to a shortage of products on the market, as has been reported in China and Hong Kong.
Face masks are not regulated, may not filter the air, and also typically allow large amounts of air in through the sides. With a shortage of masks, low-quality masks could be exported to other countries.
Wrapping cloth around your face probably will not protect you. That’ s because a scarf or a hanky does not provide a tight fit around the face, isn’ t designed to filter out air and may be contaminated.
However, during the Ebola epidemic, a woman nursed her entire family through the illness using home-made protective equipment and did not get infected.
In Asia, cloth masks are popular because they are cheap and re-usable. But they don’ t protect you. Cloth masks may even increase your risk of infection, especially if you don’ t wash them regularly. They may absorb moisture and provide a breeding ground for bugs.
So, ideally, people shouldn’ t be using them. However, people may resort to cloth if there is no other choice.
While news of mask shortages might sound scary, if you are in a country with few isolated cases, you don’ t need one anyway as the risk of infection is very low for the general public.
Panic buying or stockpiling also means there won’ t be enough to go round should the situation worsen.
Even if you do use a face mask, they may protect against large droplets ( ones you can feel on your skin when someone sneezes) and self-contamination from your hands, but not against smaller airborne particles.
Don’ t forget, hand-washing is also very effective in preventing infection. | business |
Kenya Airways: Kenyan Students Among Foreigners Stuck in Coronavirus-Hit Chinese City | In an effort to contain the coronavirus, Wuhan, the Chinese city of about 11 million people, has locked down thousands of foreigners, including African students, most on scholarships. They are now trapped in the city where the virus was first detected and continues to spread.
Twenty-eight-year-old Michael Njomo arrived in Wuhan city last September.
He applied for a competitive scholarship to study administrative management and was awarded it after several attempts.
The new coronavirus emerged just when he was settling in at Huazhong University of Science and Technology. The WhatsApp group for Kenyan students in China stopped talking about academics, and started checking on each other and sharing information about the disease.
He says the death toll kept rising and before he knew it, the city was under lockdown. He says he and his colleagues are afraid to circulate in the city.
`` Some of them are very scared here in their rooms, like the whole day they remain indoors, '' he said. `` Those are the directions we have been given by the authorities here, to avoid much interaction. If you pay much attention on that [ the death toll ], I don't know what will happen to you because there is so much information from different people. The more you listen to them, the more you pay attention, the more scared you become. ''
Njomo and his colleagues spoke to VOA via a WhatsApp call from a room they said they shared.
Some countries have started evacuating their many thousands of citizens stranded in Wuhan. Njomo and other Kenyans are still not sure of their fate but are hopeful.
`` If a situation comes that we can be evacuated from Wuhan to a safer place, everybody will accept that. Maybe somewhere like the embassy, somewhere like Beijing is ok. It's not that far from Wuhan to Beijing, but I don't know what plans our ambassador has for us, '' he said.
John ( not his real name), a final year student of engineering at Huazhong University, was meant to come home in the next couple of months.
He questions Kenya's capacity to deal with the virus if it made its way to the country and said he preferred they stay in China.
`` Of course everyone would love to go back home, but again you look at where your home is, and you are also not sure of your status regarding the disease, '' he said. `` To me, I think its better just to stay here and ensure that I am safe wherever I am because you might go back home and take it to everyone and as you know, at home, facilities are not that good to handle the situation. ''
Kenya'sMinistry of Foreign Affairs says 85 Kenyans are stuck in Wuhan.
In a press statement, the ministry said the Kenyan Embassy in Beijing is in touch with the Kenyan citizens who have been affected by the lockdown in Wuhan.
The Foreign Ministry warned Kenyans not to travel to China unless it was absolutely necessary.
As some airlines suspended flights to China, Kenya Airways, the national carrier, said it will not suspend its flights to China. The announcement came just after Kenyan Ambassador to China Sarah Serem called on the airline to stop flights to the country until the virus is contained.
At a briefing for journalists this week, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director John Nkengasong said that if the virus makes its way to African countries, it would be hard to contain.
`` The surveillance system is as good as the health system in member states, and we all know that we are at very different levels of strength in the member states. Some countries have very strong surveillance systems, some have weak surveillance systems and some, we are working with them to strengthen their systems there, '' he said.
Kenya reported Tuesday the first suspected case of coronavirus infection in January. The Ministry of Health said Thursday it sent samples to South Africa for further tests.
Sudan, Ethiopia and Ivory Coast are the other African countries that reported suspected cases.
Copyright Voice of America. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media ( allAfrica.com)., source News Service English | business |
Novel coronavirus receptors show similarities to SARS-CoV, according to new analysis -- ScienceDaily | Decade-long structural studies by Fang Li of the University of Minnesota, et al. have shown how the SARS virus ( SARS-CoV) interacts with animal and human hosts in order to infect them. The mechanics of infection by the Wuhan coronavirus appear to be similar. These investigators used the knowledge they gleaned from multiple SARS-CoV strains -- isolated from different hosts in different years -- and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 ( ACE2) receptors from different animal species to model predictions for the novel Wuhan coronavirus. ( Both viruses use ACE2 to gain entry into the cell, but it serves normally as a regulator for heart function.)
`` Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor, '' the investigators wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans.
`` Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [ at a specific spot in the genome ] could significantly enhance [ the Wuhan coronavirus's ] ability to bind with human ACE2, '' the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far.
The research is published in the Journal of Virology, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology. The study provides the basic, translational and public health research communities with predictive insights that may help study and battle this novel coronavirus.
For more information on the new strain of coronavirus, visit ASM's Novel Coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) Resources page: https: //www.asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/nCoV2019-Resources | science |
An Outbreak of Racist Sentiment as Coronavirus Reaches Australia | The Australia Letter is a weekly newsletter from our Australia bureau. Sign up to get it by email. This week’ s issue is written by Isabella Kwai, a reporter with the Australia bureau.
Recently, when Andy Miao takes the train to work in Sydney, he has noticed other people’ s disapproving looks if he does not wear a face mask. Although he does not have the coronavirus, Mr. Miao, who is of Chinese heritage and grew up in Australia, knows it’ s because of one reason: his ethnicity.
“ It makes people like me who are very, very Australian feel like outsiders, ” said Mr. Miao, 24, who returned from a trip to China earlier this month and has since seen jokes degrading Chinese people. “ It’ s definitely invoking a lot of past racial stereotypes. ”
But as the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency after the virus spread to countries including Australia, he is worried about an outbreak of misinformation, panic and xenophobia.
The virus has killed more than 200 people, with nearly 10,000 cases reported, though in Australia there are just a handful of cases, and health officials have said that the risk of catching it for many Australians is low.
Still, universities have delayed exams, face masks — used only weeks ago against bush-fire smoke — are a common sight, and the government plans to evacuate Australians from the epicenter of the outbreak in China.
Other responses here in Australia, where the relationship with China is contentious, have taken a more xenophobic bent.
Some far-right lawmakers polled their followers, asking if Australians should ban Chinese people temporarily from the country. A newspaper in Victoria, The Herald Sun, called the coronavirus a “ Chinese Virus ” on its front page, prompting over 40,000 people to sign a petition demanding an apology. On social media, fake announcements are warning people away from Chinese-populated areas, and memes are making light of early reports that the virus jumped from wild animals to humans.
“ Racism feeds on fear and anxiety, ” said Tim Soutphommasane, a former race-discrimination commissioner and now a professor at the University of Sydney. While the virus originated in China, “ viral diseases don’ t have ethnic, racial or national characteristics, ” he said, adding that the misinformation was “ alarming. ”
On Wednesday, the government said that it planned to evacuate Australians citizens from the province to Christmas Island, an Australian territory 2,000 miles away from the mainland, to be quarantined for 14 days.
But many questioned the implications of using Christmas Island, where refugees and asylum seekers have been held, instead of military bases on the mainland.
It was not an “ appropriate ” place to quarantine people, Dr. Tony Bartone, president of the Australian Medical Association, said in a television news interview. Faced with the decision, many Australians are opting to stay behind in lockdown.
Some of the rhetoric has been reminiscent of a time when Chinese people were purposely excluded from the country. “ You could read a similar article in the goldfields in 1860s Victoria, ” said Jon Piccini, a lecturer in history at the Australian Catholic University.
As scientists race to develop a vaccine, the virus is likely to continue to spread. Many wonder if it will further perpetuate stereotypes — the same ones that once prompted Australia to ban nonwhites from calling the country home.
Mr. Miao said he did not blame people for being ignorant, though he added, “ I don’ t think it’ s very fair. ”
Have you noticed or been affected by the fear around the coronavirus? Write to me at nytaustralia @ nytimes.com.
You can read more of our coverage here, or follow our correspondent Chris Buckley, who is reporting from Wuhan, on Twitter.
Now, on to stories from the week.
Michelle Elias contributed reporting.
These Are the 3 American Firefighters Who Died in the Australia Plane Crash: The three men were all former service members who had traveled to Australia to battle the bush fires charring the country.
Round of Upsets at Australian Open as 6 of Top 10 Women’ s Seeds Lose: Pliskova, Svitolina and Bencic joined Osaka, Serena Williams and Wozniacki among the high-profile casualties in a previously placid tournament
Sofia Kenin Emerges as a Fierce Counterpuncher Against Coco Gauff: Reaching her first Grand Slam singles quarterfinal had the No. 14 seed in tears.
As Coronavirus Spreads, So Does Anti-Chinese Sentiment: Fears of the outbreak have fueled xenophobia as a wave of panic spreads, sometimes outstripping practical concerns.
Novak Djokovic Outlasts Roger Federer to Stay Dominant in Australia: Djokovic prevailed in straight sets, extending his lead in head-to-head matches with Federer, to earn a place in the Australian Open final.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Can the Grammys Be Trusted? Younger artists have been suspicious of the music industry’ s “ biggest night ” for years. New allegations of misconduct at the Recording Academy seem to confirm the worst.
What to Know About Trump’ s Middle East Plan: The proposal, three years in the making, favored Israeli priorities and was conceived without Palestinian input. Here are the main points and some of the most contested elements.
Weinstein Accuser Says He Told Her, ‘ This Is How the Industry Works’: Dawn Dunning, one of two women who testified against Harvey Weinstein, said he sexually assaulted her in the early 2000s
Coronavirus Outbreak Tests World’ s Dependence on China: As British Airways cancels flights and automakers close factories, businesses consider how to cope without the country’ s vast factories and thriving consumer culture.
Last week, I wrote about the experience of learning to swim as an adult and asked you to share your places of refuge in nature.
“ I go to the Seaview Dunes, which is a remote area on the Pacific Coast in South-West Washington, just north of the mouth of the Columbia River. One hundred miles from Portland, and there’ s a lot of real — but ocean-less — forest in between.
Why all the way to the dunes? If you go into the dunes, there are just no people in there. It’ s quiet, except for the Pacific Ocean. The sound of the ocean is there all the time, day and night. The ocean never sleeps. I walk to the water. The water runs to meet you. You can touch it. It’ s thousands of miles to the next shore.
Sometimes, at night, the stars come down to the horizon almost all the way around. But I never go in the water there either. Just back into the dunes. ”
— Fred Cann
Enjoying the Australia Letter? Sign up here or forward to a friend.
For more Australia coverage and discussion, start your day with your local Morning Briefing and join us in our Facebook group. | business |
Sabre, Travelport Make Big Moves in Travel Tech Sector | Get exclusive stories and unlimited access to Skift.com news
Access exclusive travel research, data insights, and surveys
Free stories left to read
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 25/month)
Andrew Sheivachman, Skift
January 31st, 2020 at 12:15 AM EST
The tides in corporate travel are shifting as distribution companies vie to develop new technology and build partnerships to drive the sector forward.
Andrew Sheivachman, Skift
It’ s been an abnormally busy week in corporate travel.
First, Travelport has finally sold off its payments division to Wex. The move had been expected as soon as Travelport was brought private once again and gives the company a larger war chest as it looks to gain ground on Sabre and Amadeus.
Second, the court battle over Sabre’ s attempted purchase of Farelogix is in full gear. While the outcome of the case is uncertain, Sabre has industry experts on its side.
And finally, Sabre is building a new technology program for hotel giant Accor. Accor is one of the most forward-thinking hospitality chains in the world, even if its outsize ambition sometimes leads to interesting failures.
You can check out all three stories below along with the latest on the impact of the Chinese coronavirus on the global travel sector.
If you have any feedback about the newsletter or news tips, feel free to reach out via email at [ email protected ] or tweet @ sheivach.
— Andrew Sheivachman, Senior Enterprise Editor
Wex Buys Enett From Travelport for $ 1.7 Billion in a Travel Payments Mashup: With this deal, Wex now becomes a powerhouse in assisting business-to-business travel payments worldwide. The deal also gives cash to seller Travelport, which might use the money to expand its airline tech offerings.
What the Sabre-Farelogix Antitrust Trial Could Reveal About Airline Technology: It’ s notable that we had a much easier time finding experts who supported Sabre’ s proposed merger of Farelogix than opponents. But this court case will be decided on legal nuances, and its outcome is impossible to predict. We pity the judge who has to endure this crash course in airline technology and distribution.
Accor Taps Sabre for Pilot of Major Hotel Tech Project: Accor recently rebranded its loyalty program under the phrase “ Live Limitless. ” The company needs to replace its limited technology structure to meet that ambition, and this deal represents a huge commercial win for Sabre.
Chile’ s Latam Airlines Improves Premium Product Ahead of Delta Tie-Up: After changing its fare structure to compete with low-cost carriers and earmarking $ 400 million to improve its cabins, Latam’ s rollout of premium economy on domestic and regional routes makes sense. It puts the carrier in a position to offer higher-end services without the added complexity of a major business cabin reconfiguration.
Hotels Are Confused by Rise of Legal Marijuana: Opportunity or Liability? The legalization of marijuana by states is getting murkier in the eyes of the federal government, which has still not legalized pot. Some hotels are embracing certain forms of cannabis. Others don’ t want the potential liability. How do they figure out what to do?
Asian Destinations Reel From China’ s Outbound Travel Ban: For a string of Asian destinations, China is by far the number one market, so the outbound travel ban that became effective Monday there has shaken tourism businesses even though they know it is for the good.
Wizz Air Looks to Middle East for Further Expansion: Wizz Air’ s announcement of a move into Abu Dhabi was certainly eye-catching, but we maybe shouldn’ t expect anything similar elsewhere. Rather, the airline seems to be happy just moving into those markets like Armenia, Georgia, and Israel that had previously been underserved.
Corporate Travel to China Down as Companies Stop Business Trips: Huge corporations are putting a stop to staff travel to China and Hong Kong as coronavirus fears continue. This is particularly sad for the Hong Kong industry, which has barely recovered from the political protests.
Senior Enterprise Editor Andrew Sheivachman [ [ email protected ] ] curates the Skift Corporate Travel Innovation Report. Skift emails the newsletter every Thursday.
Subscribe to the Free Skift Corporate Travel Innovation Report
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 30/month)
Updated Dec. 16, 2021
Andrew Sheivachman, Skift | general |
Study Reports First Case of Coronavirus Spread by Asymptomatic Person | Editor’ s Note ( 2/4/20): Our partners at STAT have reported that the study discussed in this story was based on faulty information.
People showing no symptoms appear to be able to spread the novel coronavirus that has caused an outbreak in China and led world health authorities to declare a global emergency, researchers reported Thursday in the New England Journal of Medicine. If confirmed, the finding will make it much harder to contain the virus.
The case described—from Germany—could help resolve one of the major unknowns about the virus, which as of Thursday night had infected nearly 9,700 people in China and killed 213. About 100 more infections have been reported in 18 other countries, but no deaths.
Some viruses, including SARS, which is another coronavirus, can only be passed when a person is showing symptoms. Others, like the flu, can be spread a day or two before the onset of symptoms. If people are contagious before they become sick, they can be unknowingly spreading the virus as they go shopping or to work or to the movies. Trying to snuff out the virus in that case is a much more difficult task.
What’ s also concerning is that the spread from an asymptomatic person appeared to lead to two generations of cases, meaning the person who contracted the virus then passed it on to others.
The infection described in the new paper involved a woman from Shanghai who traveled to Germany for a business trip from Jan. 19 to Jan. 22 and displayed no signs of the disease, which include cough and fever. She only became sick on her flight back to China, and was confirmed on Jan. 26 to have the virus, known provisionally as 2019-nCoV.
On Jan. 24, however, a 33-year-old German businessman who had had meetings with the woman on Jan. 20 and 21, developed a sore throat, chills, and muscle soreness, with a fever and cough arriving the following day. He began to feel better and returned to work Jan. 27.
After the woman was found to have the virus back in China, disease detectives went to work, getting in touch with people who had been in touch with the woman—including the German businessman, who by then had recovered and appeared healthy during an examination in Munich. Tests, however, showed he had the virus.
On Jan. 28, three coworkers of the businessman tested positive for the virus. Only one of these patients had contact with the woman from Shanghai; the other two only had contact with the German man.
All four patients in Germany were isolated in hospitals and have not shown any signs of severe illness.
“ The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak, ” the experts wrote.
Germany is one of four countries, along with Vietnam, Japan, and, as of Thursday, the United States, to report limited local transmission of the virus outside of China. The large majority of cases outside China were identified in people who had picked up the virus in China and then traveled to other countries.
The increasing risk the virus seems to be posing to countries outside of China led the World Health Organization on Thursday to declare a public health emergency of international concern, or PHEIC.
Until now, there was some debate whether asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus was possible. Health officials in China said last weekend that they had seen evidence of such spread, but U.S. health officials and leaders at the World Health Organization had repeatedly said that was a question they were still trying to answer.
Even if asymptomatic people can spread the virus, they may be less likely to than people who are sneezing and coughing—routes for the virus to jump from one person to another.
Helen Branswell contributed reporting.
Republished with permission from STAT. This article originally appeared on January 30 2020 | science |
195 Quarantined in California After Fleeing Coronavirus Epicenter | The United States government has imposed a two-week federal quarantine on 195 people who were evacuated on Wednesday from Wuhan, China, to a California military base, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday.
The action means that the group will be held at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, Calif., to ensure they are not infected with the Wuhan coronavirus, which has sickened more than 9,800 people in China and killed more than 200. The 14-day period is dated from when their plane left Wuhan.
“ While we recognize this is an unprecedented action, we are facing an unprecedented health threat, ” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news conference on Friday.
A federal quarantine order in the United States is rare; the last one was imposed in the 1960s, but it was limited.
Dr. Messonnier called the federal order on Friday “ science-based, ” saying it was warranted because of the worsening epidemic in China. She cited the widening, rapid spread of the disease there, the increase in person-to-person transmission and the rising death toll. In addition, evidence has been emerging that people can transmit the disease even before they show symptoms of the illness, which can cause pneumonia in severe cases.
Another concern was that the passengers evacuated had been in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. At a news conference later on Friday, Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, announced that other citizens of the United States who were returning from Hubei Province, which includes Wuhan, would also be quarantined for up to two weeks. Mr. Azar declared a public health emergency for the United States, and said foreign nationals who had been to China during the last 14 days would not be allowed into the United States.
“ This is a very serious public health situation, and the C.D.C. and federal government have and will continue to take aggressive action to protect the public, ” Dr. Messonnier said. “ If we take strong measures now, we may be able to blunt ” the impact of the virus in the United States.
Dr. Messonnier said that the people who were quarantined did not pose a threat to the surrounding community.
Since the 195 evacuees arrived in Riverside, they have had their noses and throats swabbed to test for the virus, and their temperatures taken several times a day. They were initially told that they would be detained for at least 72 hours, and possibly 14 days. Two weeks is thought to be the upper limit of the incubation period; if symptoms don’ t start by then, a person can be cleared as not infected.
Not all the virus tests have been completed, but even if the results are negative, that does not mean a person is not infected, Dr. Messonnier said. It is possible to test too early for the virus, so a person who tests negative could still become ill and infect others. Therefore, officials said it was safer to detain people for the entire incubation period.
Dr. Martin Cetron, director of the C.D.C.’ s global migration and quarantine division, said the evacuees would benefit from the quarantine, which would prevent them from infecting their families and would provide close monitoring so that they could receive medical treatment quickly if symptoms developed.
Citing quarantines in Toronto during the SARS outbreak there in 2003, he said that most people being quarantined accept it as “ part of their civic responsibility to protect their community, ” once they understand the reasons. He also said that many people flown home from Wuhan were diplomats who understood this as part of their duty.
Until Friday, the evacuees’ detention at the air base had been unofficial. The group had stayed voluntarily for testing, except for one member, who tried to leave on Wednesday and was quarantined by Riverside County.
Federal law authorizes the C.D.C. to impose quarantines, but the power is rarely used. The last large-scale quarantine was imposed during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. The limited one in the 1960s that Dr. Cetron mentioned involved a possible case of smallpox.
Last week, China took the extreme measure of halting public transit and imposing a quarantine on Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. But people were already traveling extensively in and out of the country for celebrations of the Lunar New Year, prompting concerns that the virus would spread widely around the globe.
So far, six people in the United States are known to be infected. Five had been to Wuhan and the sixth is the husband of one of those patients. He had not traveled to Wuhan, but contracted the illness from his wife after she returned home to Chicago. The other cases have been in Washington State, California and Arizona.
More than 100 people in 36 states are being monitored as “ patients under investigation, ” because they have symptoms like fever and cough and had been to Wuhan or in contact with patients.
Hundreds of other contacts of patients have been told to notify doctors or health officials immediately if they become ill.
At the briefing, Dr. Messonnier cited a new report from Germany as part of the evidence that pushed the C.D.C. to impose the quarantine.
Physicians there who identified the first coronavirus case in their country have reported that the patient was infected by a colleague visiting from China who was not yet sick.
That the disease may be transmitted before infected people show symptoms will make the disease harder to contain, experts said.
A letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine said the German patient was a healthy 33-year-old businessman who developed a sore throat, chills and muscle aches on Jan. 24, with a fever spiking to 102.4 the next day, along with a cough. He felt better a day later and returned to work on Jan. 27.
Before he became ill, he had met with a Chinese business partner from his company near Munich, on Jan. 20 and 21. She was a resident of Shanghai who had been in Germany from Jan. 19 to 22. Though she was healthy during the visit, she got sick during her flight back to China, where she tested positive for the new coronavirus on Jan. 26. She informed her company, which traced her contacts to alert anyone she might have exposed.
The businessman was contacted, and although he was already recovering, he tested positive for the virus.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
On Jan. 28, three more employees of the company in Germany tested positive for the coronavirus, only one of whom had contact with the woman from Shanghai. The others were apparently infected by their male colleague, before he developed symptoms. All of them were admitted to the hospital, where they were isolated and monitored, and none have developed severe symptoms.
The authors of the letter in the New England Journal of Medicine, who are from Munich and Berlin, said it was “ notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period ” of the woman from Shanghai, who shortly afterward had only a brief, mild illness.
“ It does mean that transmission is more readily achieved than it was in SARS, ” an earlier coronavirus disease, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “ The report from Germany indicates quite conclusively that spread during the incubation period when the person is not sick themselves can take place. ”
But, he added, “ We don’ t know how frequently it happens. ”
“ This is a kind of natural experiment, where people were nicely shown to be in a chain of transmission, and it sounds very, very plausible, ” Dr. Schaffner said.
A scientific paper about the first patient in the United States to test positive for the coronavirus revealed more details about the course the illness takes.
The patient, a 35-year-old from Snohomish County, Wash., returned to the United States on Jan. 15 from a visit to Wuhan, and developed a cough and fever as soon as he got home.
After reading about the latest coronavirus in news reports, he sought medical treatment and informed his health care providers about his travel, although he had not been to an animal market or had contact with sick people.
He was tested and sent home, but was called back in on Jan. 20 when the test came back positive. He was hospitalized in an isolation unit on Jan. 21, and was still in the hospital on Thursday.
The Washington resident did not become severely ill until nine days after his symptoms started. An X-ray then revealed pneumonia, and he received an experimental antiviral drug called remdesivir on a compassionate basis, for which the Food and Drug Administration allows use of a drug not yet approved.
By the 12th day of his illness, he no longer had symptoms, according to a description of his case published on Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
[ Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter. ] | business |
Global funds prefer stocks despite risks still at play: Reuters poll | Funds increased their preference for stocks to a two-year high at the expense of bonds and cash holdings in their model global portfolio recommendations this month in a Reuters poll, despite world share markets struggling on the coronavirus breakout.
That cautious mood in markets lines up with responses to a separate question, which showed international long-term investors would either roughly maintain their current risk positioning or reduce their exposure to riskier assets and positions within the same asset class.
“ We should consider that we are in a late ( economic) cycle, and most of the cyclical acceleration in 2020 is expected in the first half. Therefore, we expect to reduce risk exposure at some point between Q2 and Q3, ” said Pascal Blanqué, chief investment officer at Europe’ s largest asset manager, Amundi, in Paris.
The latest Reuters poll was conducted amid mounting worries about the economic damage from a coronavirus outbreak in China that so far has led to more than 200 deaths, multiple travel bans, flight cancellations and factory shutdowns.
“ While we acknowledge the increased risks represented by the coronavirus and rising Middle East tensions, the global economic landscape is notably more positive entering 2020, ” said Alan Gayle, president at Via Nova Investment Management.
“ Moreover, earnings prospects are improving and central bankers intend to keep interest rates low, which supports a higher stock market. We plan to maintain our increased equity exposure at least over the near term. ”
The Jan. 17-31 poll of 37 asset managers showed global investors in search of better returns increased their exposure to equities to the highest since January 2018, to an average 49.7% from 47.0% in December.
“ Equities look most attractive from a cross-asset point of view and remain one of the highest-yielding assets, ” said Benjamin Seuss, director at UBS Asset Management.
Funds suggested a cut to bonds holdings to 40.3% from 42.1% and cash levels to the lowest in two years to 4.3% from 4.6% in December.
“ It is likely that global equities will outperform bonds in 2020 as investors remain committed to risk assets for their total return strategies, ” said Peter Lowman, chief investment officer at Investment Quorum in London.
“ Nonetheless, its a question of ‘ what you own rather than just owning the market’ given valuation distortions in parts of the equity market. ”
But many fund managers viewed the potential economic damage from the coronavirus and below-expectations earnings growth as the biggest risks to their current positioning.
“ The hit to Chinese consumption from the coronavirus outbreak could delay or weaken the re-acceleration of global growth, ” said UBS’ s Seuss in Zurich.
“ The market is priced for a sharp rebound in earnings over the next few months and any delay could cause some additional but modest volatility. Any pullback of around 5% or so will be a buying opportunity for equities, ” he added.
While equities in both developed and emerging markets were predicted to rise modestly this year, the conviction among fund managers was much stronger for developed markets equities, which had a banner year in 2019.
More than 80% of portfolio managers in response to an additional question said stocks in advanced economies would rise modestly.
But on emerging-market equities - which rallied late last month and earlier in January - they were more split, with around 60% predicting a rise and the remaining 40% expecting a decline in 2020.
The regional breakdown showed developed-market stocks broadly rose at the expense of the emerging markets.
“ We need to see earnings growth come through in 2020 to support equity markets following the large re-rating in 2019. Liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve has also calmed markets, ” said Craig Hoyda, senior quantitative analyst at Aberdeen Standard Investments in Edinburgh.
“ However, any withdrawal could reverberate through to emerging markets. ”
Additional reporting and polling by Tushar Goenka and Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru and Fumika Inoue in Tokyo; editing by Ross Finley, Larry King | business |
Diversified Communications puts coronavirus plan in place for Seafood Expo North America |
Subscribe to SeafoodSource News
// <! [ CDATA [ var switchTo5x=true; // ] ] > // <! [ CDATA [ stLight.options ( { publisher: `` d264abd5-77a9-4dfd-bee5-44f5369b1275 '', doNotHash: false, doNotCopy: false, hashAddressBar: false }); // ] ] >
Share
Seafood Expo North America organizer Diversified Communications said on 31 January the novel coronavirus outbreak has not affected its plans to host North America’ s largest seafood expo, slated to take place 15 to 17 March at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center ( BCEC) in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
The coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, has spread rapidly in China and isolated cases have been found in other parts of the world, including eight in North America. “ Diversified Communications has been responding to public safety situations for many years and has an effective crisis management protocol in place, ” Diversified Communications Seafood Group Vice President Liz Plizga told SeafoodSource. “ We have great confidence in our partnerships with the cities and local authorities where our events take place, and we will continue to update our customers on new developments. We look forward to a safe and successful event. ”
Diversified said it is working with the venue’ s Public Safety Department, which itself is coordinating with the city, state, and federal first responders for “ real-time ” intelligence and response protocols. Furthermore, the Public Safety Department is reviewing the BCEC’ s pre-event safety and security assessment to ensure appropriate preventive measures are in place. Additionally, the BCEC has medically trained public safety staff and Boston Emergency Medical Services on-site during the event as standard practice “ and will implement the most effective protocols in accordance with current recommendations, ” Diversified said. And the BCEC plans to increase hand-washing signage and hand sanitizer stations throughout the facility and will make an extra effort to ensure all public areas remain clean, the company said.
“ The situation has not impacted attendee registration and exhibitor participation at the expo, ” it said. “ We are following the guidance of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC). We are also working with the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority ( MCCA), and appropriate authorities on recommended protocols to protect our customers and attendees while at the expo. ”
For its part, the city of Boston is monitoring the progress of the virus and has increased efforts to prevent the spread of disease citywide, Diversified said. The Massachusetts Port Authority, working with the Center for Disease Control, has initiated coronavirus screenings of international travelers arriving at Boston’ s Logan Airport, and city officials have organized preparedness meetings with Boston EMS, emergency management agencies, and the police and fire departments.
Diversified Communications said it in its statement it will continue to monitor the situation regarding the novel coronavirus, both in the U.S. and internationally.
“ The health and safety of our attendees and exhibitors are our primary concern, ” it said. “ We encourage our exhibitors and visitors to take preventive measures and review the [ updates provided by ] the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. ”
Diversified will post any additional updates regarding the coronavirus and Seafood Expo North America at a special web page it has created for those interested in more information. [ Editor’ s note: Diversified Communications also owns and operates SeafoodSource ]. | general |
American Airlines Pilots Sue to Stop Flights to China | Get exclusive stories and unlimited access to Skift.com news
Access exclusive travel research, data insights, and surveys
David Koenig, The Associated Press
January 31st, 2020 at 6:30 AM EST
With several airlines halting all flights to China, it's not surprising American Airlines ' pilots are saying why not ours too? Jitters have set in, and they are real.
Raini Hamdi
The pilots’ union at American Airlines sued on Thursday to stop the carrier from flying to China and told members not to operate flights there because of the spreading coronavirus outbreak.
The Allied Pilots Association, which represents American’ s 15,000 pilots, asked a state district court in Dallas for an injunction to halt the flights immediately. The union cited declarations by international health experts that the virus is a public health emergency.
“ The safety and well-being of our crews and passengers must always be our highest priority — first, last, and always, ” union President Eric Ferguson said in a statement.
Ferguson noted that several international carriers have stopped flying to China. Union leaders asked American’ s management to do the same, he said, “ but to date they have not canceled any U.S.-China flights. We are therefore compelled to seek injunctive relief. ”
A spokesman said the airline was aware of the lawsuit.
“ We are in close contact with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and global public health officials to make sure we are taking all necessary precautions for our customers and team members, ” said the spokesman, Joshua Freed.
American announced Wednesday that it will suspend flights between Los Angeles and both Beijing and Shanghai beginning February 9. The airline has not announced changes in flights between Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong or between Los Angeles and Hong Kong.
Freed said American is monitoring the situation and could make other changes “ as needed. ”
United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have announced they will reduce the number of flights to China starting over the next few days. Some foreign carriers, including British Airways, have said they will stop all flights to the country at the center of the outbreak.
This article was written by DAVID KOENIG from The Associated Press and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network. Please direct all licensing questions to [ email protected ].
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 30/month)
Updated Dec. 22, 2021
David Koenig, The Associated Press | general |
Modeling study estimates spread of 2019 novel coronavirus -- ScienceDaily | Senior author Professor Gabriel Leung from the University of Hong Kong highlights: `` Not everyone who is infected with 2019-nCoV would require or seek medical attention. During the urgent demands of a rapidly expanding epidemic of a completely new virus, especially when system capacity is getting overwhelmed, some of those infected may be undercounted in the official register. ''
He explains: `` The apparent discrepancy between our modelled estimates of 2019-nCoV infections and the actual number of confirmed cases in Wuhan could also be due to several other factors. These include that there is a time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons coming to medical attention, and time taken to confirm cases by laboratory testing, which could all affect overall recording and reporting. ''
The new estimates also suggest that multiple major Chinese cities might have already imported dozens of cases of 2019-nCoV infection from Wuhan, in numbers sufficient to initiate local epidemics.
The early estimates underscore that it will likely take rapid and immediate scale-up of substantial public health control measures to prevent large epidemics in areas outside Wuhan. Further analyses suggest that if transmissibility of 2019-nCoV could be reduced, both the growth rate and size of local epidemics in all cities across China could be reduced.
`` If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV is similar nationally and over time, it is possible that epidemics could be already growing in multiple major Chinese cities, with a time lag of one to two weeks behind the Wuhan outbreak, '' says lead author Professor Joseph Wu from the University of Hong Kong. `` Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could potentially also become outbreak epicentres because of substantial spread of pre-symptomatic cases unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. ''
According to Professor Gabriel Leung: `` Based on our estimates, we would strongly urge authorities worldwide that preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment, including securing supplies of test reagents, drugs, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and above all human resources, especially in cities with close ties with Wuhan and other major Chinese cities. ''
In the study, researchers used mathematical modelling to estimate the size of the epidemic based on officially reported 2019-nCoV case data and domestic and international travel ( i.e., train, air, road) data. They assumed that the serial interval estimate ( the time it takes for infected individuals to infect other people) for 2019-nCoV was the same as for severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS: table 1). The researchers also modelled potential future spread of 2019-nCoV in China and internationally, accounting for the potential impact of various public health interventions that were implemented in January 2020 including use of face masks and increased personal hygiene, and the quarantine measures introduced in Wuhan on January 23.
The researchers estimate that in the early stages of the Wuhan outbreak ( from December 1, 2019 to January 25, 2020) each person infected with 2019-nCoV could have infected up to 2-3 other individuals on average, and that the epidemic doubled in size every 6.4 days. During this period, up to 75,815 individuals could have been infected in Wuhan.
Additionally, estimates suggest that cases of 2019-nCoV infection may have spread from Wuhan to multiple other major Chinese cities as of January 25, including Guangzhou ( 111 cases), Beijing ( 113), Shanghai ( 98), and Shenzhen ( 80; figure 3). Together these cities account for over half of all outbound international air travel from China.
While the estimates suggest that the quarantine in Wuhan may not have the intended effect of completely halting the epidemic, further analyses suggest that if transmissibility of 2019-nCoV could be reduced by 25% in all cities nationally with expanded control efforts, both the growth rate and size of local epidemics could be substantially reduced. Moreover, a 50% reduction in transmissibility could shift the current 2019-nCoV epidemic from one that is expanding rapidly, to one that is slowly growing ( figure 4).
`` It might be possible to reduce local transmissibility and contain local epidemics if substantial, even draconian, measures that limit population mobility in all affected areas are immediately considered. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings, '' says co-author Dr Kathy Leung from the University of Hong Kong. `` On top of that, strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact by cancelling mass gatherings, school closures, and introducing work-from-home arrangements could contain the spread of infection so that the first imported cases, or even early local transmission, does not result in large epidemics outside Wuhan. ''
The authors point to several limitations of their study, including that the accuracy of their estimates depend on their assumption about the zoonotic source of infection in Wuhan. They also highlight that the models assume travel behaviour was not affected by disease status and that all infections eventually have symptoms -- so it is possible that milder cases have gone undetected which could underestimate the size of the outbreak. Lastly, they note that their epidemic forecast was based on inter-city mobility data from 2019, and might not reflect mobility patterns in 2020, particularly in light of the health threat posed by 2019-nCoV. | science |
U.S. to Quarantine 195 Americans Evacuated from Wuhan | U.S. health officials said Friday they would quarantine 195 U.S. citizens who were evacuated from Wuhan, China, amid an outbreak of a novel coronavirus—the first time in 50 years the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has taken such action.
The order will be effective for 14 days from the date of evacuation.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’ s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters health officials were prepared for the possibility that the outbreak of the coronavirus could become a pandemic—the worldwide spread of a disease. “ We are preparing as if this is the next pandemic, ” she said, stressing that the agency hoped it would not become one.
“ If we take strong measures now, we may be able to blunt the impact of the virus on the United States, ” Messonnier said.
She added: “ Please do not let fear or panic guide your actions. ”
The passengers arrived at March Air Reserve Base in Southern California Wednesday after being flown from Wuhan, with a stop in Anchorage. The passengers had been monitored for symptoms—including cough and fever—before, during, and after the flight.
U.S. officials said Wednesday that all passengers had volunteered to stay at the base in isolation for a few days while they could be assessed, but one person tried to leave the base that night and was placed under a 14-day quarantine by local authorities.
The federal quarantine issue was ordered for a number of reasons, CDC officials said. Among them: the number of confirmed cases and deaths in China has jumped every day this week; more countries are reporting infections, including incidents of human-to-human transmission of the virus; and evidence documented this week by German researchers that showed a person with no symptoms of the virus passing it on to others.
The virus, known provisionally as 2019-nCoV, has caused nearly 9,700 confirmed infections and killed 213 people in China. About 100 additional infections have been reported in 18 other countries, and no deaths. The large majority of cases outside China came from people who picked up the virus in China and then traveled to the other countries.
CDC officials framed the quarantine decision as the best way to preclude the potential spread of the virus to the people’ s families and communities. They said that monitoring the people for 14 days also meant that should any of them become sick, they can be quickly identified.
CDC scientists have developed a test for the coronavirus, but Messonnier said it might not be advanced enough to detect the virus if people are not showing symptoms yet. The quarantine is set for 14 days because that is the longest amount of time the virus is thought to be able to “ incubate ” in a person before creating symptoms.
Quarantining people involves restricting the movements of people who may have been exposed to a pathogen but are not yet sick; it is different than isolation, which refers to containing people who are sick. The last time a federal quarantine order was issued for potential cases was in the 1960s for smallpox evaluation, CDC officials said.
The CDC also confirmed Friday that China had agreed to allow some of its experts into the country “ to support ” the Chinese response and help study the transmission of the virus and the range of severity seen with infections, a spokesperson said. The World Health Organization is sending another mission to China to collaborate on the response and investigation.
The repatriated passengers had been evacuated from Wuhan, the central Chinese city of 11 million people where cases of the virus were first documented last month and where the outbreak is centered. U.S. officials arranged the flight as the virus spread and China imposed lockdowns on Wuhan and other cities, shutting down travel to and from the areas and essentially quarantining tens of millions of people.
One person with a fever was not allowed to board the flight in Wuhan, U.S. officials said Wednesday.
Messonnier called the quarantine “ an unprecedented action. ” But, she said, “ we are facing an unprecedented public health threat. ”
CDC officials acknowledged that a quarantine came with downsides, including the potential for fear and for the stigmatization of people under quarantine. “ We’ re taking every measure to make sure people are treated with dignity and respect, ” said Dr. Martin Cetron, CDC’ s director of global migration and quarantine.
There have been six confirmed U.S. cases of the coronavirus infection. Five were travel-related. The sixth, announced Thursday, marked the first U.S. case of human-to-human transmission; one of the travel-related cases, a woman in Illinois, transmitted the virus to her husband before she was isolated.
U.S. health officials have said since the outbreak started that they expected travel-related cases and for some of those patients to pass the virus on to their close contacts. If they can restrict the virus to cases of limited spread among contacts and prevent the virus from circulating more broadly, it is much easier to snuff out the virus.
On Thursday, the State Department increased its travel warning to Americans, urging them to avoid travel to China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cited the WHO’ s declaration of the outbreak as a global health emergency as part of the rationale for the warning. But WHO officials have stressed the declaration was being made to encourage countries not to impose travel and trade restrictions on China.
Several airlines have halted flights to and from the Chinese mainland, including, as of Friday, American, Delta, and United.
Republished with permission from STAT. This article originally appeared on January 31 2020 | science |
Shock over virus drops the salmon price down once again | Coronavirus fear cuts down the salmon prices – for the fourth week in a row. Now the big salmon is cheaper than the most traded weight classes.
“ A terrible week. There is a nervous atmosphere, ” says one exporter to SalmonBusiness. “ No air cargo. The aviation market has stopped. And we have a lot of 6+ [ kg ] in Norway, ” he continues, calling the market “ quiet ”.
The heaviest salmon is usually in high demand by overseas markets, especially in the Far East and the US. This is not the case now.
“ All the flight orders were packed, driven to Gardermoen [ Oslo airport ] and then the flights were cancelled. This resulted in losses of up to 20 kroner. We just have to wait. We can’ t take that risk. ”
Coronavirus “ Prices are way down in the 60s. About the same price on 4+, ” says another source. “ It has gotten a hit, that big fish, ” he adds.
It is the demand side, and the negative effects of the coronavirus, that is the major topic of conversation among traders today.
“ There’ s a lot of uncertainty. Customers are starting to stop demanding. People don’ t go to restaurants anymore. Finns say there is a 50 percent reduction in restaurant visits. It is almost the same in the UK. People are afraid of infection. That’ s the big problem, ” says one importer.
“ It’ s not China – people are going out less. Then we do not know how it will develop. ”
“ If you look at economic theory then the price should be down in the low end. We will have to see what they offer in Norway. It will probably be in the lower half of the 60s, ” he says.
Big fish “ It is incredibly difficult to see the consequences. You will not see the orders for the fish until a week or two has passed. But when it has been 100 kroner earlier on, it should be 40 kroner now. It is only now that farmers have started taking out big fish. Chile has a lot of big fish, and they do not have access to Russia, ” he points out.
All indications are that even more fish will be targeted at the European market.
“ It’ s a shock. And people don’ t see the consequences. They don’ t understand what this means for demand, ” says a buyer.
“ I think a few people are able to understand the situation. You do not have an overview of what you actually get out. That fish should be allocated to other aviation markets. When they don’ t take it, it will in Europe. ”
The sellers of big fish, which saw prices upwards of a ten euro for a month and a half, have seen the lights go out.
“ There is more big fish available from week four each year. What has happened this year is that the big fish prices were so high for so long. Then this happened like nobody saw, of course. ”
Strong “ But there is no reason to lose your head if the price falls to NOK 60. Did people forget that we saw the 3 in the fall? ” he asks.
It’ s starting to be a while ago, but in week 41 last year, the salmon price was NOK 39.75 ( €4).
“ I’ m surprised at how strong this market is, with a price of 60+. We are steeped in news of this [ the corona virus – ed. ] in the western world, ” he notes.
SalmonBusiness’ industry sources refer to the following farmgate prices for fish to be delivered the coming week:
post @ salmonbusiness.com | general |
Near Miss of the Day 369: Taxi close pass – but police claimed not to have received footage ( + video) | Like this site? Help us to make it better.
Today’ s video in our Near Miss of the Day Series proved to be a frustrating experience for the road.cc reader who filmed it – with police telling him they were unable to pursue the driver because they hadn’ t received the footage, despite him having earlier received an email from them confirming that they had.
The deliberate close pass by a taxi belonging to MMA Transfers happened on the A57 by Ladybower Reservoir in August last year.
It was filmed by road.cc reader Andy, who told us: “ I submitted the footage to Derbyshire Police by their online reporting facility and received an automated reply to say it had been received. ”
He said that in December, he chased up police on the case “ having heard nothing only to be told they hadn’ t received the video.
“ Being outside the window for issuing a Notice of Intended Prosecution it’ s now pointless pursuing, ” he continued. “ I’ ve put in a complaint to Derbyshire Police. ”
Andy added: “ As you see in the video a safe pass could have been made as other drivers did before and after but this ‘ professional’ driver chose to intimidate and endanger two people for reasons only known to them. ”
> Near Miss of the Day turns 100 - Why do we do the feature and what have we learnt from it?
Over the years road.cc has reported on literally hundreds of close passes and near misses involving badly driven vehicles from every corner of the country – so many, in fact, that we’ ve decided to turn the phenomenon into a regular feature on the site. One day hopefully we will run out of close passes and near misses to report on, but until that happy day arrives, Near Miss of the Day will keep rolling on.
If you’ ve caught on camera a close encounter of the uncomfortable kind with another road user that you’ d like to share with the wider cycling community please send it to us at info [ at ] road.cc or send us a message via the road.cc Facebook page.
If the video is on YouTube, please send us a link, if not we can add any footage you supply to our YouTube channel as an unlisted video ( so it won't show up on searches).
Please also let us know whether you contacted the police and if so what their reaction was, as well as the reaction of the vehicle operator if it was a bus, lorry or van with company markings etc.
> What to do if you capture a near miss or close pass ( or worse) on camera while cycling
We’ ve noticed you’ re using an ad blocker. If you like road.cc, but you don’ t like ads, please consider subscribing to the site to support us directly. As a subscriber you can read road.cc ad-free, from as little as £1.99.
If you don’ t want to subscribe, please turn your ad blocker off. The revenue from adverts helps to fund our site.
If you’ ve enjoyed this article, then please consider subscribing to road.cc from as little as £1.99. Our mission is to bring you all the news that’ s relevant to you as a cyclist, independent reviews, impartial buying advice and more. Your subscription will help us to do more.
Simon has been news editor at road.cc since 2009, reporting on 10 editions and counting of pro cycling’ s biggest races such as the Tour de France, stories on issues including infrastructure and campaigning, and interviewing some of the biggest names in cycling. A law and languages graduate, published translator and former retail analyst, his background has proved invaluable in reporting on issues as diverse as cycling-related court cases, anti-doping investigations, and the bike industry. He splits his time between London and Cambridge, and loves taking his miniature schnauzer Elodie on adventures in the basket of her Elephant Bike.
found it https: //www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/insulate-britain-protesters-drive-...
Are motorists likewise limited to being in bunches of vehicles no greater than the length of a bus, with a safe distance of 30m between groups?
I can't quite fit it to what Google maps but for anyone interested their plan is here:...
Runs to Ebay the set of pads he has sitting in the shed.....
* Breaking news *, Covid trend turns negative. Nige right again. | general |
US underprepared for coronavirus due to Trump cuts, say health experts | US preparedness to deal with the threat of coronavirus has been hampered by the personnel and budget cuts made by the Trump administration over the past three years, according to health experts.
There is no one in the White House tasked specifically to oversee a coordinated government-wide response in the event of a pandemic, since the post of senior director for global health security and biothreats on the national security council ( NSC) was eliminated last May.
The office was established in 2016 after the outbreak of the Ebola virus in Africa demonstrated the US government was not set up to move with the speed and decisiveness necessary to react to a really lethal epidemic.
The White House global health “ czar ” was supposed to coordinate international, national, state and local organisations, public and private, to confront a global epidemic, backed by the direct authority of the president.
After he became national security adviser, John Bolton eliminated the office as part of an NSC reorganisation, as he did not see global health issues as a national security priority.
As the first person-to-person transmission of coronavirus in the US was reported, and as evidence emerges that it could be much more contagious than initially thought, health and disaster planning experts argued for contingency preparations for a global outbreak.
“ You have to at least now be anticipating and responsibly planning against a sort of pandemic level scenario reaching the US, ” Jeremy Konyndyk, who ran foreign disaster assistance in the Obama administration, said.
“ The fact that they explicitly dismantled the office in the White House that was tasked with preparing for exactly this kind of a risk is hugely concerning, ” said Konyndyk, now a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “ Both the structure and all the institutional memory is gone now. ”
Funding has also been cut drastically to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC), forcing it to reduce or discontinue epidemic-prevention efforts in 39 out of the 49 countries it had been helping. Among the countries where CDC efforts were scaled back were Haiti, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as China, where the agency provided technical assistance.
In its 2020 budget the Trump administration proposed a further 10% cut in CDC funding, equivalent to $ 750m. It zeroed out funding for epidemiology and laboratory capacity at state and local levels.
Funding will also dry up this year for a tiered epidemic response within the US. The system was set up in the aftermath of the Ebola scare, and involved identifying patients infected by “ special pathogens ” in frontline hospitals and their transfer up a chain of specially equipped regional hospitals where they could be safely treated.
After this year’ s cuts, 10 advanced treatment facilities will still receive funding, but not the 60 other treatment centres one tier below.
“ Those assessment and treatment hospitals are kind of wondering where they’ re going to get funding to continue these very costly efforts, ” said Saskia Popescu, an infection prevention epidemiologist, at George Mason University. “ So not only are we creating more vulnerable hospitals, but we’ re getting this message across that hospitals, if you want to prepare, you’ re kind of on your own. ” | general |
Will Covid-19 Impact Investment In Startups And Tech? | To get a sense of how Covid-19 could impact startup financing in Asia, we analyzed how virus outbreaks have impacted private market funding in the past.
Yesterday, the World Health Organization ( WHO) officially declared the new coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. Although the virus, which originated in China, has been much less deadly than past virus outbreaks, 7,800+ cases have already been confirmed in 18 countries.
China remains the epicenter of the crisis — all but 1% of cases are in China, and 34% are in Wuhan, which has been on citywide lockdown since January 23.
Download our free report to get the TL; DR on what you need to know about venture funding and trends in Q3’ 21.
The country, and Asia, more broadly, have also been hotbeds for private market financing over the past few years. The latest PwC / CB Insights MoneyTree Report pointed to Asia as the second most active VC market globally, with 5,295 deals and $ 63B in funding in 2019.
So how might the Covid-19 outbreak impact the booming private markets in Asia? We look to past outbreaks to answer this question.
The SARS outbreak started in November 2002 in China’ s Guangdong province, but the outbreak only became widely publicized 3 months later, when an American businessman died from the disease. Shortly after, the WHO issued a global alert in March, sending the world into a prolonged panic given the disease’ s high mortality rate.
It wasn’ t until May 2004 that the WHO announced China free of new SARS cases.
SARS’ s impact on the Asian private markets was swift. Total funding in 2003 and 2004 were 27% and 29% below 2002 levels, respectively.
Deal volume and funding both started to recover in Q3’ 04 shortly after the WHO cleared China of SARS, and matched pre-outbreak levels 1 quarter later. Notably, a little over a year after the WHO’ s clearance, Asian private market funding hit a new funding high and witnessed a now-fabled deal: Yahoo’ s $ 1B investment in Alibaba.
The Zika outbreak began in early 2015 in Brazil and spread to the rest of South America and other parts of the world, including the US.
It wasn’ t until Q1’ 16 that the mosquito-transmitted virus entered the global consciousness. In January, the US Centers for Disease Prevention and Control ( CDC) issued a warning advising against pregnant women traveling to Brazil and other countries in the region due to increasing evidence of the virus’ s link to birth defects. In February, the WHO declared the Zika outbreak a global emergency.
The WHO ended the warning in November 2016.
Our News tool shows that media coverage of the virus started to spike around when the CDC and WHO issued their warnings. The coverage peaked by September 2016.
South American private market financing activity also appeared to slow after the outbreak became widely publicized. Funding activity decreased by 50% in 2016, compared to 2015.
Meanwhile, deal volume in 2016 still outpaced the prior year, but this may be a reflection of how nascent activity was in the region. The deal volume growth rate did slow down when compared to the 2015 rate.
Following the end of the WHO’ s global Zika warning, deal and funding activity gained significant momentum. Q2’ 17 brought a new high in South American private market funding, with a record $ 2.9B invested in 248 deals.
If past performance is any indicator of the future, Asia private market financing could experience a slow down in 2020. In addition, China’ s ongoing VC slump could further harm private market financing in the region.
However, both of the past private market downturns that accompanied a major viral outbreak were followed by an eventual bounce back. So at the end of the current coronavirus outbreak, we could see landmark deals or new funding highs in the Asian market. | tech |
Friday briefing: Britain shuffles off the EU stage | Hello, it’ s Friday morning – a sombre morning for those unhappy to see the UK officially leaving the European Union at 11 o’ clock tonight. Warren Murray here with your guide to this, that and the other news of the day.
As we enter the last hours before the split from the EU, is Britain effectively declaring open season on itself? Donald Trump is poised to demand the NHS pay higher prices for US drugs in a free-trade deal with the UK, warns Kim Darroch, the esteemed peer and ex-diplomat. Britain’ s outgoing ambassador to Washington – who had to resign after dispatches critical of the Trump administration were leaked – has predicted to the Guardian that the president will reward backers in drug firms and agriculture by forcing trade concessions from No 10. The UK, he argues, will struggle to come out a winner when “ we have not done trade negotiations for 40 years ”. “ People talk about chlorinated chicken – it is a lot more than that, ” Darroch said. “ He believes in America first. And he believes, particularly, in rewarding people who vote for him and that is American farmers and big American corporations. ”
There will be no “ Big Ben bongs ”, no church bells and no fireworks – they are illegal after 11pm – to mark the moment of Britain’ s departure. The government says a countdown will be projected on to Downing Street buildings, though. When the moment of severance arrives, Boris Johnson will launch into a speech about the future of the UK. Demonstrators against Brexit will meet at Southbank in London with torches to “ shine a light through the darkness ”, with similar gatherings due to take place in Brighton and Bournemouth. Leave Means Leave will hold a rally. Sajid Javid will hand over one of the first of the 50p Brexit coins to the PM.
During 47 years of membership, the UK’ s permanent representatives to the EU have been at the coalface of British diplomacy and negotiation in Europe. Speaking exclusively to the Guardian, the surviving nine “ perm reps ” – past and present – reflect on Britain’ s European story.
Britons fly out of Wuhan – Among updates we are bringing you in our coronavirus live blog this morning: a flight carrying 83 UK citizens has taken off from Wuhan, the epicentre of the emergency, bound for Britain. The US government has warned Americans not to travel to China, where the death toll has reached at least 213. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared a global health emergency. An increasing number of airlines have stopped flying to mainland China, including Air France KLM SA, British Airways, Germany’ s Lufthansa and Virgin Atlantic, while others have reduced flights. The Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has said all air traffic between Italy and China will stop. His country has, meanwhile, experienced a spate of anti-Chinese incidents. Conspiracy theories and dangerous preventative “ advice ” have been circulating on the internet – we have rounded some of it up for debunking.
Trump on brink of acquittal – Donald Trump may be acquitted as early as today in his Senate impeachment trial. Key Republican swing votes that could have allowed witnesses to be called appeared to be falling away in overnight proceedings. Democrats have decried the situation as paving the way for a “ lawless presidency ” unable to be reined in by checks and balances. The Democrats have pushed for the president’ s former national security adviser John Bolton to testify with what could be a damaging account of Trump’ s “ quid pro quo ” strategy with Ukraine.
Lung cancer found too late – People with lung cancer are dying after being diagnosed late in A & E because their GP missed signs of the disease, often despite repeated visits, according to findings by experts. The proportion diagnosed in A & E – as many as 56% of people in some parts of England – are five times more likely to die within a year. Patients’ reluctance to have symptoms such as a persistent cough checked out can also delay diagnosis, especially among older people and those from poorer households. Prof Mick Peake, of the UK’ s Lung Cancer Coalition, said: “ We strongly urge GPs to have a low threshold for doing a chest X-ray or CT scan in patients where there is any suspicion of lung cancer. ”
Warning of oil crash risk – The oil industry could face a global market shock if governments delay tackling the climate crisis, according to the thinktank Carbon Tracker. Its analysis warns that the longer governments wait, the tougher limits on the use of fossil fuels will need to be. Carbon Tracker says such a sudden “ handbrake turn ” could have a “ forceful, abrupt and disorderly ” impact on the global industry, wiping out billions of dollars worth of investments. The thinktank warned investors against oil market scenarios published by the International Energy Agency which predict a steady decline in demand rather than a sudden collapse. Existing forecasts are for oil demand to grow 0.6% a year over the next five years, but Carbon Tracker found a crackdown on emissions could shrink demand by 2.6% a year from 2025 onwards. Europe’ s most vulnerable oil company is BP, according to the report, followed by Norway’ s Equinor, Paris-headquartered Total, Italy’ s Eni and Anglo-Dutch Shell.
Sex and the CofE – The archbishops of Canterbury and York have apologised over a statement issued by Church of England bishops that declared only married heterosexuals should have sex. Justin Welby and John Sentamu said they took responsibility for releasing the statement: “ We are very sorry and recognise the division and hurt this has caused. ” They did not retract the substance of the “ pastoral guidance ” but implied it should not have been issued while the CofE is in the midst of a review of its teaching on sexuality and marriage. The guidance said “ sexual relationships outside heterosexual marriage are regarded as falling short of God’ s purpose for human beings ”, and that people in gay or straight civil partnerships should be sexually abstinent.
Anushka Asthana looks back on an extraordinary period of chaos in politics since David Cameron called the EU referendum. Plus: on the day the UK leaves, Faiza Shaheen argues that remainers must now put their energy into ideas to take Britain forward.
Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https: //audio.guim.co.uk/2020/01/30-76344-200131TIF EUgamble1.mp3
After an indifferent sojourn in Hollywood, the film-maker Bong Joon-ho went back to South Korea to do his next film – and, in Parasite, produced an undisputed masterpiece. Why is his stunning critique of the class system striking chords all over the world?
England have been handed a major blow before the start of their Six Nations campaign after Anthony Watson was ruled out of Sunday’ s match against France, with Eddie Jones leaning towards handing a debut to George Furbank in his place. More than 150 football-related racist incidents were reported to police last season, Home Office figures show, a rise of more than 50% on the year before and more than double the number from three seasons ago.
USA Gymnastics has filed a bankruptcy plan that includes an offer of $ 215m for sexual abuse survivors to settle their claims against the embattled organisation. Wigan won the opening game of the new Super League season 16-10 against Warrington, who had their captain, Chris Hill, sent off in the first half. Saqib Mahmood is looking to hit the 90mph mark during the coming white-ball fixtures in South Africa after feeling the benefit of Darren Gough’ s short spell as an England coach. And Arsenal captain Kim Little has joined Fifpro’ s new players’ council as she tries to give back to the game and influence what happens next.
The collapse of Norton motorcycles was sad news for the manufacturing sector this week. But our reporter Simon Goodley reveals the full story behind the administration, involving hundreds of hapless pension holders, together with unsuspecting Norton customers, staff and even government ministers, who ploughed in millions of pounds in taxpayer support. Asian stocks have recovered some ground today after the WHO stepped back from supporting restrictions on trade with China due to the coronavirus outbreak. The FTSE100 is poised to rise 0.7% while the pound is on $ 1.31 and €1.187.
You can see all the front pages here today – herewith a summary. The Guardian illustrates Britain’ s EU departure with the white cliffs of Dover, a union jack planted in a sandcastle in the foreground and the headline “ Small island ”. The Mail has the same backdrop but its headline is “ A new dawn for Britain ”, while the i calls it “ UK’ s leap into the unknown ”.
“ Our time has come ” declares the Sun over a photo of Big Ben with the hands sitting on 11pm. “ Yes we did ” says the Express, which appears to attribute Brexit to itself and its readers. The Times goes with: “ PM wants Canada-style trade deal with Brussels ”.
The Telegraph front page pictures and paraphrases Johnson: “ This is not an end, but a beginning ”, while the FT has perhaps the most straightforward take: “ Britain bows out of the EU with a mixture of optimism and regret ”.
The Guardian Morning Briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes bright and early every weekday. If you are not already receiving it by email, you can sign up here.
For more news: www.theguardian.com | general |
Whole Genome of the Wuhan Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV Sequenced | Whole genome sequence of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus, in one of the first French cases, made at the Institut Pasteur ( Paris), using a unique Platform ( P2M), open to all French National Reference Centers. Credit: Institut Pasteur / CNR of respiratory infection viruses
On January 24, 2020, the French Ministry of Health confirmed the first three cases of patients affected by the Wuhan coronavirus. On January 29, 2020, the Institut Pasteur, which is responsible for monitoring respiratory viruses in France, sequenced the whole genome of the coronavirus known as “ 2019-nCoV ”, becoming the first institution in Europe to sequence the virus since the start of the outbreak. The virus was sequenced at the Institut Pasteur’ s Mutualized Platform for Microbiology ( P2M), which performs genome sequencing on bacterial, viral, fungal and parasite strains received by National Reference Centers and World Health Organization Collaborating Centers for the purpose of infectious disease surveillance.
In December 2019, an outbreak of apparently viral pneumonia of unknown etiology emerged in the city of Wuhan, in the Chinese province of Hubei.
On January 9, 2020, the Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization ( WHO) announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, which was confirmed as the agent responsible for the pneumonia cases.
Over the weekend of January 11-12, the Chinese authorities shared the full sequence of the coronavirus genome, as detected in samples taken from the first patients. “ Sequencing the genome of pathogens is crucial for the development of specific diagnostic tests and the identification of potential treatment options, ” explains Sylvie van der Werf, Director of the National Reference Center ( CNR) for Respiratory Viruses at the Institut Pasteur.
Friday, January 24, 2020. Detection of the virus confirmed in France
On Friday, January 24, late in the morning, the Institut Pasteur received samples of three suspected cases ( two patients in Paris and one in Bordeaux). “ Using the samples taken from these patients, we detected the novel coronavirus, ” says Sylvie Behillil, Deputy Director of the CNR at the Institut Pasteur.
From Friday January 24, 2020. Viral genome sequenced at the Institut Pasteur
That same Friday evening, scientists launched the process of sequencing the viral genome based on the samples. The CNR prepared the material for sequencing, ready for P2M to begin work immediately the following Monday. The sequencing run was completed by early evening on Tuesday, and the scientists used data analysis to obtain the sequence of the whole genome in two of the first three confirmed cases in France. “ This proves the efficacy of the CNR’ s process of analysis based on viral sequencing, ” continues Vincent Enouf.
Thursday, January 30, 2020. The Institut Pasteur obtains and shares the whole sequence of the virus
The P2M platform ( see inset below) currently performs at an extremely high level; the average time taken to produce sequences ranges from three days ( for emergencies) to a maximum of ten days. In this case, it took just three days for the whole sequence to be determined: “ We performed data analysis during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, then corroborated the results on Wednesday with counter analysis, ” explains Vincent Enouf. “ The whole sequence was confirmed in just three days. ”
What can we learn from it? “ The sequences were identical in all our samples. One member of the couple must have contaminated the other, as the virus is the same. ” The two full sequences of the virus isolated in two of the first French cases were submitted to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data ( GISAID) platform,1 which was initially developed to share sequences and monitor the genetic evolution of influenza viruses, a process that is vital to determine the composition of the influenza vaccine. A special “ coronavirus ” tab has been created so that the scientific community can work together and advance at a quicker pace.
“ Around twenty other sequences of the novel coronavirus genome have been obtained worldwide, and if we compare them with ours, we can see that they are all very close; there is not much diversity in the viruses analyzed, which suggests that coronavirus 2019-nCoV did not need to mutate in order to adapt and spread, ” continues Vincent Enouf.
The National Reference Center ( CNR) for Respiratory Viruses at the Institut Pasteur in Paris is one of WHO’ s reference laboratories for coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
A total of eight people from the CNR and two from the P2M sequencing platform have been working on the virus this week and will continue to monitor the outbreak in France.
P2M is also available to external CNRs for sequencing. In 2019 it worked with four CNRs based outside the Institut Pasteur. The platform sequences bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi. Thanks to experience gained over the past five years ( since 2015), P2M today offers a highly efficient service, as shown by a first-pass success rate ( i.e. a high-quality sequence providing comprehensive information on the entire genome) of more than 95% in 2019. Sequence production takes between three days ( for emergencies) and ten days at most.
In 2019, P2M sequenced around 25,000 pathogens. Genome sequencing increases the sensitivity threshold for outbreak detection. Early identification of outbreaks by the Institut Pasteur’ s scientists ( clustered cases in a short space of time caused by the same pathogen) enables epidemiologists to get to work immediately to determine the origins of the outbreak, and the authorities to coordinate the public health response. | tech |
MIT helps first-time entrepreneur build food hospitality company | Christine Marcus MBA’ 12 was an unlikely entrepreneur in 2011. That year, after spending her entire, 17-year career in government, most recently as the deputy chief financial officer for the U.S. Department of Energy, she entered the MIT Sloan School of Management Fellows MBA Program.
Moreover, Marcus didn’ t think of herself as an entrepreneur.
“ That was the furthest thing from my mind, ” she says. “ I knew it was time to think about the private sector, but my plan was to leave Sloan and get a job in finance. The thought of entrepreneurship was nowhere in my mind. I wasn’ t one of those people who came with a business idea. ”
By the end of Sloan’ s intensive, 12-month program, however, Marcus was running a startup helping local organizations and companies serve food from some of Boston’ s best restaurants to hundreds of people. Upon graduation, in addition to her degree, Marcus had 40 recurring customers and had sold about $ 50,000 worth of food from her classmates’ Italian restaurant.
What happened to spark such a dramatic change?
“ MIT happened, ” Marcus says. “ Being in that ecosystem and listening to all the people share their stories of starting companies, listening to CEOs talk about their successes and failures, the mistakes they’ ve made along the way, that was super-inspiring. What I realized at MIT was that I’ ve always been an entrepreneur. ”
In the years since graduation, Marcus has used her new perspective to build Alchemista, a “ high-touch ” hospitality company that helps businesses, commercial real estate developers, and property owners provide meals to employees and tenants. Today, Alchemista has clients in Boston, New York City, and Washington, and serves more than 60,000 meals each month.
The company’ s services go beyond simply curating restaraunts on a website: Each one of Alchemista’ s clients has its own representative that customizes menus each month, and Alchemista employees are on the scene setting up every meal to ensure everything goes smoothly.
“ We work with companies that focus on employee culture and invest in their employees, and we incorporate ourselves into that culture, ” Marcus says.
Finding inspiration, then confidence
At first, all Marcus wanted from MIT were some bright new employees for the Department of Energy. During a recruiting trip for that agency in 2011, she met Bill Aulet, the managing director of the Martin Trust Center for MIT Entrepreneurship and professor of the practice at Sloan.
“ I mentioned to Bill that I was thinking of doing an MBA, ” Marcus remembers. “ He said, ‘ You need to come to MIT. It will transform your life.’ Those were his exact words. Then basically, ‘ And you need to do it now.’ ”
Soon after that conversation, Marcus applied for the Sloan Fellows Program, which crams an MBA into one year of full-time, hands on work. A few weeks after being accepted, she left her lifelong career in government for good.
But Marcus still had no plans to become an entrepreneur. That came more gradually at Sloan, as she listened to experts describe entrepreneurship as a learnable craft, received encouragement and advice from professors, and heard from dozens of successful first-time entrepreneurs about their own early doubts and failures.
“ A lot of these founders had backgrounds in things that had nothing to do with their industry, ” Marcus says. “ My question was always, ‘ How do you become successful in an industry you don’ t know anything about?’ Their answer was always the same: ‘ It’ s all about learning and being curious.’ ”
During one typically long day in the MBA program, a classmate brought in food from his Italian restaurant. Marcus was blown away and wondered why MIT didn’ t cater from nice restaurants like that all the time.
The thought set in motion a process that has never really stopped for Marcus. She began speaking with office secretaries, club presidents, and other event organizers at MIT. She learned it was a nightmare ordering food for hundreds of people, and that many of Boston’ s best restaurants had no means of connecting with such organizers.
“ I made myself known on campus just hustling, ” Marcus remembers. “ First I had to spend time figuring out who orders food. … I made it my mission to talk to all of them, understand their pain points, and understand what would get them to change their processes at that point. It was a lot of legwork. ”
Marcus moved into the entrepreneurial track at Sloan, and says one of her most helpful classes was tech sales, taught by Lou Shipley, who’ s now an advisor for Alchemista. She also says it was helpful that professors focused on real-world problems, at some points even using Alchemista as a case study, allowing Marcus’ s entire class to weigh in on problems she was grappling with.
“ That was super-helpful, to have all these smart MIT students working on my company, ” she says.
As she neared gradation, Marcus spent a lot of time in the Trust Center, and leaned heavily on MIT’ s support system.
“ That’ s the best thing about MIT: the ecosystem, ” Marcus says. “ Everybody genuinely wants to help however they can. ”
Leaving that ecosystem, which Marcus described as a “ challenging yet safe environment, ” presented Marcus with her biggest test yet.
Taking the plunge
At some point, every entrepreneur must decide if they’ re passionate and confident enough in their business to fully commit to it. Over the course of a whirlwind year, MIT gave Marcus a crash course in entrepreneurship, but it couldn’ t make that decision for her.
Marcus responded unequivocally. She started by selling her house in Washington and renting a one-bedroom apartment in Boston. She also says she used up her retirement savings as she worked to expand Alchemista’ s customer base in the early days.
“ I’ m not sure I would recommend it to anyone without a strong stomach, but I jumped in with both feet, ” Marcus says.
And MIT never stopped lending support. At the time, Sloan was planning to renovate a building on campus, so in the interim, Aulet started a coworking space called the MIT Beehive. Marcus worked out of there for more than a year, collaborating with other MIT startup founders and establishing a supportive network of peers.
Her commitment paid off. By 2014, Marcus had a growing customer base and a strong business model based on recurring revenue from large customer accounts. Alchemista soon expanded to Washington and New York City.
Last year, the company brought on a culinary team and opened its own kitchens. It also expanded its services to commercial property owners and managers who don’ t want to give up leasing space for a traditional cafeteria or don’ t have restaurants nearby.
Marcus has also incorporated her passion for sustainability into Alchemista’ s operations. After using palm leaf plates for years, the company recently switched over to reusable plates and utensils, saving over 100,000 tons of waste annually, she says.
Ultimately, Marcus thinks Alchemista’ s success is a result of its human-centered approach to helping customers.
“ It’ s not this massive website where you place an order and have no contact, ” Marcus says. “ We’ re the opposite of that. We’ re high-touch because everyone else is a website or app. Simply put, we take all the headaches away from ordering for hundreds of people. Food is very personal; breaking bread is one of the most fundamental ways to connect with others. We provide that experience in a premium, elevated way. ”
After the Covid-19 pandemic caused a drop in revenue, Christine Marcus MBA '12 reinvented Alchemista, her food tech delivery service, reports Geri Stengel for Forbes. Marcus targeted the home market allowing property managers to “ use temperature-controlled food lockers as vending machines to offer meals, snacks, and more in the lobby or another common area, ” writes Stengel.
Previous item Next item | business |
Republicans march over the impeachment cliff – taking their self-respect with them | Jared Kushner is a genius. It’ s all too easy to overlook the sheer brilliance of Donald Trump’ s son-in-law, not least when he rolls out a Middle East peace plan that destroys the concepts of both the Israeli and Palestinian states.
But for his rapier-like ability to capture the zeitgeist, there’ s no one quite like the young slumlord to tell it like it really is. Speaking to CNN’ s Christiane Amanpour, Kushner talked dramatically about this week as a time for leaders to step up.
“ What we’ ve done is create an opportunity for their leadership to either seize or not, ” he explained. “ If they screw up this opportunity – which again, they have a perfect track record of missing opportunities – if they screw this up, I think they will have a very hard time looking the international community in the face, saying they are the victims, saying they have rights. ”
Kushner thought he was talking about the Palestinians, in a gloriously brazen blend of racism and gold-leafed ignorance.
But he was in fact describing perfectly the entire caucus of Senate Republicans as they screwed up their last golden opportunity for personal redemption and liberal democracy in the impeachment trial of Donald J Trump.
How will the nation’ s Republican senators look anyone in the face and say they have any rights to keep in check a corrupt and criminal president? How can they pretend to be Trump’ s victims when they marched themselves off a constitutional cliff?
And how on earth can they pretend to the world that their vision of America – where a president can happily use military aid to coerce a foreign government to smear his political rival in an election – is the model for democracy?
Let’ s be honest. There was little drama or suspense in Trump’ s impeachment trial, save for the bat-excrement quality of crazy that tumbled out of Alan Dershowitz’ s mouth. According to Harvard’ s emeritus law professor, presidents are unimpeachable as long as they think they are acting in the national interest when they use their power to corrupt their own election.
This could have been valuable analysis for Richard Nixon, but it also serves to question the value of a Harvard law professor. Perhaps it’ s only the detritus who become emeritus.
Dershowitz claimed he said no such thing, but our eyes and ears suggested otherwise. He also said he supported Nixon’ s almost-impeachment, naturally. Which is to say: the Harvard man is the perfect specimen of what Trump has propagated through the body politic: a contagious coronavirus of chronic lying, cowardly ambition and plain old corruption.
For all the fake angst about calling witnesses – did Mitch McConnell wobble on the votes to stop them or is he actually manipulating the media every day? – the searing testimony of John Bolton would have done nothing, zippo, nada, to change the final vote.
The facts of Trump’ s corruption were never in dispute. The notion that this doesn’ t rise to impeachable crimes has always been a joke.
We could play the age-old parlor game of asking how our esteemed Republican senators would have responded to Barack Obama asking the French government to investigate Mitt Romney’ s missionary exploits ahead of the 2012 election. But what’ s the point?
Today’ s Republican party elected to remove their spinal cords three years ago, along with much of their frontal lobe and their self-respect. They wring their hands in private and lament their lampoon-worthy leader whose shoes they must lick on a daily basis.
But they should know they are following in a fine tradition of the world’ s puppet legislators, like the People’ s Council of Syria and the Russian Duma under the expert guidance of one Vladimir Putin.
We should in some ways be grateful for the honesty of our pseudo-senators. “ There is no need for more evidence to prove something that has already been proven, ” said Lamar Alexander, the Tennessee senator who was supposedly considering Bolton as a witness.
Having decided the facts against Trump, Alexander then decided to trivialize his criminal acts of withholding congressionally mandated foreign aid and demanding foreign interference in his own election. According to Alexander, such stuff was simply “ inappropriate ” – much like wearing brogues to the Grand Ole Opry or asking for the fish at Top’ s Bar-B-Q.
Faced with so many profiles in courage, our reality TV star of a commander-in-chief will carry on regardless, seeking out fellow grifters, foreign strongmen and domestic weaklings
“ The question then is not whether the president did it, but whether the United States Senate or the American people should decide what to do about what he did, ” said the senator, elected to make decisions for the American people in one of three co-equal branches of government.
Faced with so many profiles in courage, our reality TV star of a commander-in-chief will carry on regardless, seeking out fellow grifters, foreign strongmen and domestic weaklings. Will he feel liberated by the failure of the Senate trial to seek out more foreign interference in this year’ s election? The answer may be similar to the one about bears dumping in forests.
Short of removal from office or federal indictment, there are no constraints on Trump’ s conduct. He can hire another goon like Rudy Giuliani to work with sketchy foreigners running businesses called something like Fraud Guarantee. Then he can shovel any amount of sketchy cash on to Facebook’ s mountain of money to beguile the gullible about the guaranteed fraud. Because a president can’ t be impeached for inappropriate crimes. And because political free speech is untouchable in the fantasy world where Mark Zuckerberg thinks he’ s helping humanity.
This has been a historic week for self-destructive politics. Like turkeys voting for Christmas, the British government celebrated its withdrawal from its biggest trading relationships just as Republican senators celebrated their own castration.
Both sets of magnificent morons claimed they were acting for their imaginary friends in the future: a future where Britain will once again bestride the ocean, and presidents will once again lead the free world feeling free from the fear of partisan impeachment.
“ The Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats keep chanting ‘ fairness’, when they put on the most unfair Witch Hunt in the history of the U.S. Congress, ” tweeted the victim-in-chief sitting in the Oval Office, probably watching Fox News. “ They had 17 Witnesses, we were allowed ZERO, and no lawyers. They didn’ t do their job, had no case. The Dems are scamming America! ”
Donald Trump doesn’ t know much about history, foreign policy or politics. He can’ t tell the difference between his own lawyers and no lawyers; between lots of witnesses and no witnesses at all. But he does know a lot about scams, and he can’ t wait to share them with you. | general |
Scientific Estimates of Spread of Coronavirus Much Higher Than Official Reports | Major routes of outbound air and train travel originating from Wuhan during chunyun, 2019. Darker and thicker edges represent greater numbers of passengers. International outbound air travel ( yellow) constituted 13·5% of all outbound air travel, and the top 40 domestic ( red) outbound air routes constituted 81·3%. Islands in the South China Sea are not shown. Credit: Wu, et al. / The Lancet
Authors caution that given the lack of a robust and detailed timeline of records of suspected, probable, and confirmed cases and close contacts, the true size of the epidemic and its pandemic potential remains unclear.
New modeling research, published in The Lancet, estimates that up to 75,800 individuals in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with 2019 novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) as of January 25, 2020.
Senior author Professor Gabriel Leung from the University of Hong Kong highlights: “ Not everyone who is infected with 2019-nCoV would require or seek medical attention. During the urgent demands of a rapidly expanding epidemic of a completely new virus, especially when system capacity is getting overwhelmed, some of those infected may be undercounted in the official register. ”
He explains: “ The apparent discrepancy between our modeled estimates of 2019-nCoV infections and the actual number of confirmed cases in Wuhan could also be due to several other factors. These include that there is a time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons coming to medical attention, and time taken to confirm cases by laboratory testing, which could all affect overall recording and reporting. ”
The new estimates also suggest that multiple major Chinese cities might have already imported dozens of cases of 2019-nCoV infection from Wuhan, in numbers sufficient to initiate local epidemics.
Cumulative number of confirmed cases of 2019 novel coronavirus as of Jan 28, 2020, in Wuhan, in mainland China ( including Wuhan), and outside mainland China. Credit: Wu, et al. / The Lancet
The early estimates underscore that it will likely take rapid and immediate scale-up of substantial public health control measures to prevent large epidemics in areas outside Wuhan. Further analyses suggest that if transmissibility of 2019-nCoV could be reduced, both the growth rate and size of local epidemics in all cities across China could be reduced.
“ If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV is similar nationally and over time, it is possible that epidemics could be already growing in multiple major Chinese cities, with a time lag of one to two weeks behind the Wuhan outbreak, ” says lead author Professor Joseph Wu from the University of Hong Kong. “ Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could potentially also become outbreak epicenters because of substantial spread of pre-symptomatic cases unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. ”
According to Professor Gabriel Leung: “ Based on our estimates, we would strongly urge authorities worldwide that preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment, including securing supplies of test reagents, drugs, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and above all human resources, especially in cities with close ties with Wuhan and other major Chinese cities. ”
In the study, researchers used mathematical modeling to estimate the size of the epidemic based on officially reported 2019-nCoV case data and domestic and international travel ( i.e., train, air, road) data. They assumed that the serial interval estimate ( the time it takes for infected individuals to infect other people) for 2019-nCoV was the same as for severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS: table 1). [ Note: Use link at bottom of article to access the study to see the tables and figures. ] The researchers also modeled potential future spread of 2019-nCoV in China and internationally, accounting for the potential impact of various public health interventions that were implemented in January 2020 including use of face masks and increased personal hygiene, and the quarantine measures introduced in Wuhan on January 23.
The researchers estimate that in the early stages of the Wuhan outbreak ( from December 1, 2019 to January 25, 2020) each person infected with 2019-nCoV could have infected up to 2-3 other individuals on average, and that the epidemic doubled in size every 6.4 days. During this period, up to 75,815 individuals could have been infected in Wuhan.
Additionally, estimates suggest that cases of 2019-nCoV infection may have spread from Wuhan to multiple other major Chinese cities as of January 25, including Guangzhou ( 111 cases), Beijing ( 113), Shanghai ( 98), and Shenzhen ( 80; figure 3). [ Note: Use link at bottom of article to access the study to see the tables and figures. ] Together these cities account for over half of all outbound international air travel from China.
While the estimates suggest that the quarantine in Wuhan may not have the intended effect of completely halting the epidemic, further analyses suggest that if transmissibility of 2019-nCoV could be reduced by 25% in all cities nationally with expanded control efforts, both the growth rate and size of local epidemics could be substantially reduced. Moreover, a 50% reduction in transmissibility could shift the current 2019-nCoV epidemic from one that is expanding rapidly, to one that is slowly growing ( figure 4).
“ It might be possible to reduce local transmissibility and contain local epidemics if substantial, even draconian, measures that limit population mobility in all affected areas are immediately considered. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings, ” says co-author Dr. Kathy Leung from the University of Hong Kong. “ On top of that, strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact by canceling mass gatherings, school closures, and introducing work-from-home arrangements could contain the spread of infection so that the first imported cases, or even early local transmission, does not result in large epidemics outside Wuhan. ”
The authors point to several limitations of their study, including that the accuracy of their estimates depend on their assumption about the zoonotic source of infection in Wuhan. They also highlight that the models assume travel behavior was not affected by disease status and that all infections eventually have symptoms–so it is possible that milder cases have gone undetected which could underestimate the size of the outbreak. Lastly, they note that their epidemic forecast was based on inter-city mobility data from 2019, and might not reflect mobility patterns in 2020, particularly in light of the health threat posed by 2019-nCoV.
Reference: “ Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study ” by Prof Joseph T Wu, PhD; Kathy Leung, PhD and Prof Gabriel M Leung, MD, 31 January 2020, The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736 ( 20) 30260-9 | tech |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.