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Luckin Coffee Stock Drops as Short Sellers Respond to Fraud Claim | Luckin Coffee has more to worry about than the coronavirus. Short sellers are squaring off over the Chinese beverage chain.
The stock plunged as much as 26% Friday after the short-selling shop Muddy Waters Research said it was shorting Luckin ( ticker: LK) shares. Muddy Waters said it decided to bet that the stock will fall after receiving an 89-page anonymous report that accused Luckin of fraud.
Shares regained much of the lost ground as Citron Research—also known as a short seller—said on Twitter that it also received the report Muddy Waters shared. Citron said that rather than selling Luckin short, it is holding the stock.
“ Citron has respect for Muddy, but this anon. report will fall short on accuracy. Expect LK management response, ” Citron tweeted.
Luckin didn’ t immediately respond to requests for comment. Shares were down 15.4% at $ 30.80 in early afternoon.
Luckin’ s stock was under pressure even before Muddy Waters said it was betting against the shares. The chain has temporarily closed stores in China in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
Starbucks ( SBUX) also closed coffee shops in the country. It has delayed updating its financial guidance for 2020 until it has a better grasp of how the closures will affect the business.
Luckin listed its stock on the Nasdaq last year, raising $ 561 million in its debut. Though only founded two years ago, the company quickly expanded in China and now has roughly 4,000 locations.
The stock quickly soared as Wall Street warmed to its delivery options and promises to expand its menu.
But the critics behind the anonymous report Muddy Waters released said that Luckin has a “ fundamentally broken business ” and accused it of “ fraud. ” The people behind the report said full- and part-time Luckin staff they enlisted to help with their research collected 11,260 hours of video of store traffic. | business |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Fell as the Coronavirus Fear Is Getting Real | Beaten Down. U.S. stocks plunged on Friday amid resurgent fears over China’ s coronavirus and the outbreak’ s impact on global growth. The U.S. Senate looks set to reject witnesses in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. The U.K. is formally leaving the EU today, but a post-election rally in U.K. stocks has fizzled out. Amazon. com stock ( AMZN) rallied after the e-commerce and cloud-computing giant posted dramatically better-than-expected December quarter results, pushing its intraday market value above $ 1 trillion. International Business Machines stock ( IBM) also rose after the company said that President and CEO Ginni Rometti will step down in April after eight years on the job. In today’ s After the Bell, we...
Stocks tumbled on Friday as worries about China’ s coronavirus outbreak is finally taking a toll on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 603.41 points, or 2.09%, to close at 28,256.03. The S & P 500 slumped 58.14 points, or 1.77%, to end at 3225.52, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 148.00 points, or 1.59%, to close at 9150.94.
The iShares MSCI China ETF ( MCHI) fell 1.9% on Friday to finish the week down 11%. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures trader expectations for volatility over the coming 30-day period, has jumped 39.3% in January to the highest level since last October. The 10-year Treasury note yields also reached the lowest level since October, falling over 40 basis points in January to 1.50% from 1.92%.
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency over the coronavirus outbreak on Friday. Azar said that American citizens returning from China would be quarantined for two weeks and foreign nationals deemed a risk would be barred from entering the country. There are six confirmed cases in the U.S. and 191 people are under investigation, officials said.
This comes one day after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a “ public health emergency of international concern. ” Nearly 10,000 cases have been confirmed in China and the death toll hit 213 as of Friday. According to the WHO, there are 98 other confirmed cases outside of China in 18 countries, including eight person-to-person transmissions in Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and the U.S.
The State Department raised its travel alert for China to 4, the highest level, from 3. The agency recommended Americans not to travel there and for those already in China to consider departing. In fact, U.S. citizens were repatriated from Wuhan, China, earlier this week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that the people have now been placed in federal quarantine. Another evacuation is planned.
Other countries are stepping up measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus to their own territories. Singapore said that starting Feb. 1, no visitors who have traveled to mainland China within the last 14 days will be allowed to enter the country. Previously, the restriction was only applied to those who had traveled to Hubei, the Chinese province where the virus first originated. Pakistan said it would ban all commercial air travel to and from mainland China. Italy and Russia have announced similar plans after infected cases were identified in those countries.
Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines ( DAL), American Airlines Group ( AAL), and United Airlines Holdings ( UAL) announced Friday that they’ ll suspend all flights to China, effective through late March or late April. Other airlines around the world have also suspended some routes to China, including British Airways, Air Seoul, Lufthansa Group, Cathay Pacific, Air India, and Air Canada. | business |
5 Black Swans That Could Imperil Financial Markets | The coronavirus has sparked fear among global investors, who worry that this could be the dreaded black swan that trips up the financial markets.
It has also fanned concern among some Americans who suspect that the bug could be spread by the communal activity that will reach a high on Super Bowl Sunday.
Some of the worries clearly are off-target. Google has been flooded with inquiries about the virus’ link to Corona beer, according to USA Today. Searches for the term “ beer virus ” were heaviest in Hawaii, New Mexico, and Kansas, while South Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona were big on searches for “ corona beer virus. ”
Just as nobody expects the Spanish inquisition—as the old Monty Python sketch put it—markets can’ t anticipate the arrival of black swans, the metaphor originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe rare, highly disruptive events. Even so, February’ s Bank Credit Analyst offers five such low-probability events suggested by BCA’ s Geopolitical Strategy team. And the coronavirus isn’ t among them.
The risks that BCA reckons the market is “ seriously underpricing ” have probabilities of 10% -15% —significantly greater than the single-digit probability assigned to them by the consensus. But some of the risks are so obscure that BCA’ s crew can’ t say how to price them.
The biggest danger is a potential miscue by either President Donald Trump or Chinese President Xi Jinping. The latter could make a policy mistake that triggers a financial crisis in China, a risk long predicted in many quarters. Or the two could be drawn into a military clash, BCA posits.
China’ s debt-fueled bubble could burst as a result of Xi’ s battle against systemic risk, which has been compromised by an easing in credit conditions to stabilize the economy. With the phase-one trade deal with the U.S. in place, BCA thinks that Beijing might overdo deleveraging, while allowing the yuan to become too strong to show that China isn’ t engaging in competitive devaluation. The Xi administration may resist stimulating its economy, even ahead of two major political events: the centenary of the Communist Party in 2021 and the National Party Congress in 2022.
“ This is a country with massive economic and financial imbalances, a declining growth profile, and persistent political obstacles to growth, both at home and abroad, ” according to BCA’ s geopolitics watchers. The Xi administration could underestimate downward pressure on the Chinese economy, triggering a “ huge negative surprise ” for the world economy.
Even worse is the potential for military conflict between the two superpowers. BCA says that, since 2013, it’ s been warning that this is “ more likely than you think. ” Anti-China sentiment is rising in the U.S. and is one area of bipartisan agreement in Washington, evident in the newfound concern about Beijing’ s treatment of its Uighur minority, as well as support for Hong Kong’ s pro-democracy protesters. And while the phase-one deal is supposed to lead China to import an additional $ 200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years, Washington and Beijing will have to “ tamp down on public vitriol ” to meet that heady goal, the publication maintains.
Taiwan also holds the potential for sparking conflict, especially because its recent election “ has injected new vitality in this already underrated geopolitical risk, ” the Bank Credit Analyst continues. Most provocative was the declaration by President Tsai Ing-wen, who says she heads an independent country “ and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan. ” Political ideology is merging with trade, security, and other differences that could make any skirmish “ more than just a risk-off event, ” BCA concludes.
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Other risk areas are on the other side of the world. BCA thinks the European refugee crisis could reheat, with increased migration resulting from greater unrest in Iran’ s sphere of influence. Afghanistan, the largest source of migrants to Europe, may flare anew given Trump’ s decision to withdraw most U.S. troops this year.
A break in the fighting in Libya could encourage more migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Turkey, host to 2 million to 4 million refugees from Middle East conflicts, could ship migrants northward, That could lead to a European embargo on Turkish exports, which would “ crush the already decimated Turkish economy. ” In sum, increased migration “ would fundamentally undermine political stability in Europe, ” BCA argues.
Russia could be vulnerable to domestic unrest, even as it pursues its foreign policy objectives, including interfering with U.S. elections and punishing regional adversaries. Vladimir Putin faces a drop in approval at home, owing to tight monetary and fiscal policies. Protests last year were suppressed by the police, but their causes remain intact. Russian equities, meanwhile, have rallied, while the political risk is understated.
Finally, BCA warns, an upsurge of social unrest in the U.S. also is a looming risk. Discontented millennials and Generation Z-ers shouldering heavy student loans and other debt could revolt, especially should centrist “ Uncle Joe ” Biden be the Democratic nominee. The convention in Milwaukee could bring back memories of Chicago in 1968, if no candidate has a majority of delegates after the primaries. Establishment “ superdelegates ” and others unwilling to rock the boat could deny the nomination to a progressive, sparking protests.
Alternatively, BCA continues, Biden could tack left to gain support, or one of the actual progressives, such as Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, could win. That would be viewed as an “ existential threat ” by Trump’ s supporters. BCA suggests that a Trump loss to a progressive Democrat could provoke a violent reaction, analogous to secession by the Confederacy after the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. This notion seems extreme and far-fetched, however.
The world is a dangerous place where risks abound for fully priced financial markets. But I would worry more about a beer-borne virus than a violent clash in the U.S., even in this highly contentious political year. | business |
Manchester United complete shock loan signing of Odion Ighalo | Manchester United have pulled off the remarkable last-minute loan signing of Odion Ighalo on a frantic transfer deadline day on which Ole Gunnar Solskjær became ever more desperate to sign a replacement centre-forward.
In one of the more memorable winter window deals the 30-year-old joined until the end of the season from China’ s Shanghai Shenhua. The deal will not include an option to buy.
Ighalo has two seasons of Premier League experience, having played for Watford between 2014 and 2017, and is an established Nigeria international. In his first season at Vicarage Road he scored 20 goals in 35 Championship matches, before managing 16 in 55 top-flight appearances in the following campaigns.
Yet the signing of a forward who has played in Chinese football for the past three years is a surprise, with the manager Solskjær forced to act due to Marcus Rashford’ s long-term back injury. This left him with only Anthony Martial and the 18-year-old Mason Greenwood as frontline No 9s.
Ighalo earns a basic of at least £200,000 a week, though how much of the salary United will have to source is unclear. Despite China’ s coronavirus crisis, the striker is expected to travel to Manchester in the coming days to bolster United’ s forward ranks.
At the start of the day Solskjær believed a permanent deal or loan for Bournemouth’ s Joshua King could be achieved.
United had an initial offer for the 28-year-old turned down but were given reason to believe an increased bid could succeed when Eddie Howe said morning that, much as he did not want to lose King, the decision on whether to sell was not in his hands.
Bournemouth’ s manager also indicated that King, who was with United as a youngster but made only one first-team appearance, was keen to return to Old Trafford.
“ It’ s not my call at the end of the day, ” Howe said. “ It’ s going to be between the chief executive and the owner of the football club and that’ s why I said at the start I don’ t want to go too deep into it because a lot of these things are out of my control.
“ All I can say is I love Josh as a player and a person. I respect him greatly and I know his situation – I know what Manchester United means to him with his history connected to the club. So I understand his position. Let’ s wait and see. ”
Yet as Bournemouth were unable to find a suitable replacement if they were to allow King to leave the deal fell through. The Norwegian is one of only three senior strikers at Bournemouth, with Dominic Solanke and Callum Wilson the others.
On Thursday United did sign Bruno Fernandes from Sporting Lisbon. Solskjær, asked why the midfielder was not bought in summer, said: “ It’ s about timings, priorities and also valuation, money. ”
Solskjær confirmed Fernandes would be in Saturday’ s squad for the visit of Wolves. | general |
The Earnings Season Is Better Than You Think | We’ re halfway through earnings season, and results are better than promised, otherwise known as just as expected.
Two-thirds of S & P 500 index companies that have reported results for the fourth-quarter tally have topped earnings estimates. That’ s because weeks before earnings seasons, companies and analysts perform a sultry tango of lowball guidance and estimate cuts, and the result is usually a rose-in-teeth CEO leaping over the consensus on reporting day.
Better to judge surprises by looking at price action rather than earnings. Slightly fewer companies have popped than flopped on quarterly reports. Not quite olé! but still OK.
With or without share price gains, all of those earnings beats have pulled the fourth-quarter growth projection predictably higher. At the end of last year, S & P 500 earnings were expected to decline 1% during the fourth quarter, but that has improved to a 0.3% decline. Keep an ice ax and crampons handy, because at this rate, summiting zero is not out of the question. And things will look easier after that.
Early forecasts for full-year 2020 have earnings growing by an ambitious 9%. Don’ t count on it, but the first-quarter prediction of 4% growth looks reasonable.
That’ s because last year’ s go-nowhere earnings weren’ t the result of economic weakness or trade tensions, says Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub. They were mostly traceable to challenges across energy and in certain tech stocks, like Facebook ( ticker: FB), which is spending heavily to address user outrage over the way users outrage one another.
Golub expects economically sensitive industries, including energy and tech, to jump back to peppy growth in 2020, and for steadier industries to be not much worse off. If all goes smoothly—and if the coronavirus outbreak can be brought under control—rising earnings will help S & P 500 members grow into last year’ s price gains. The index, before a recent dip, briefly touched its highest forward price/earnings ratio since 2002.
There is a subtle but tasty piece of statistical support for improving growth. Fourth-quarter growth for the S & P 500 will be pulled lower by index members with heavy earnings weightings and sharp earnings declines. Boeing ( BA) and Exxon Mobil ( XOM) stand out. These are not quite offset by hefty growers like Apple ( AAPL) and Microsoft ( MSFT).
Ignore the gravitational pull of such titans. The median company in the S & P 500 is expected to report 4% earnings growth during the fourth quarter. If anyone knows the ticker for this Median Co., I recommend buying shares immediately.
Back to the fourth-quarter reports we’ ve seen so far. There have been thrills and spills. I’ ve been trying not to watch General Electric ( GE) stock, with its come-hither 53% gain last year, because I’ ve been heartbroken by complicated industrials before. But on Wednesday, it blew past free-cash-flow estimates and predicted more of the same. Shares jumped 10%.
Also on Wednesday, semiconductor specialist Xilinx ( XLNX) shed 10%, because the evening before it had beaten earnings estimates but issued weak guidance and announced staffing cuts. Management blamed sluggish spending by data center and 5G customers, but this was not the company’ s only post-earnings selloff over the past year. Its name might be fitting, beginning and ending as it does with the symbols for strike one and strike two.
On Wednesday afternoon, Tesla ( TSLA) beat earnings estimates, and the stock shot 10% higher the following day. One analyst said a blue-skies outcome for the stock could take it to $ 1,000 from a recent $ 635—and he has a Neutral rating. On the earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said he thinks that “ retail investors ” have “ better insight than many of the analysts. ” The bronze bull a few blocks from Wall Street hasn’ t spoken since.
Apple ( AAPL) and Amazon. com ( AMZN) trounced estimates and shares jumped. Facebook beat on earnings, but the stock slumped. A 25% rise in revenue was outpaced by a 34% climb in costs. “ My goal for this next decade isn’ t to be liked, but to be understood, ” co-founder Mark Zuckerberg said on the call. The not-liked part of his guidance seems achievable, maybe even conservative. | business |
Coronavirus: Everything Investors Need to Know About the Disease’ s Impact | Concern about the highly contagious Chinese coronavirus is taking a toll on global markets and companies. The pathogen, which has spread from the city of Wuhan to dozens of countries, including the U.S., is a global health emergency, according to the World Health Organization. It has claimed more than 350 lives and infected more than 17,000 people.
Here’ s what you need to know about the coronavirus and its impact on markets.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Wuhan virus, named 2019-nCoV, likely came from bats, but not much else is known. Similar to MERS and SARS, the disease is spread between people in close contact via coughing or sneezing, according to the Centers for Disease Control. The CDC says the immediate health risk to the general American public is low.
One model, built by Cascend Securities, forecasts that as many as 800,000 people could be infected and 200,000 people could die from the virus if those who have caught the disease aren’ t quarantined by September.
—Here’ s How Fast Coronavirus Could Spread, According to One Model.
Stocks tumbled globally on Monday as the outbreak spread and investors reacted to downbeat news over the weekend. China’ s economy and stock market are bearing the brunt.
—Coronavirus Is a ‘ Global Health Emergency.’ Stocks Rose Anyway.
The reaction in the U.S. has been mixed. Stocks fell initially but rebounded on Tuesday and Wednesday as investors reacted to reports of strong corporate earnings. Worry over the virus dragged on the market for much of Thursday, though shares ended in positive territory. The impact on U.S. markets could still grow.
—Coronavirus Could Trigger More Stock Selloffs. Look for a Buying Opportunity, J.P. Morgan Says.
Investors don’ t like volatility, but they’ ve had to deal with disease-related shocks in the past. History says the impact will be temporary, as long as the outbreak is contained.
—Coronavirus Has Hit the Stock Market. Here’ s What History Says Comes Next.
While the White House considers banning all U.S.-China flights, United Airlines and American Airline have suspended some flights to mainland China. British Airways said it is canceling all service to the mainland.
—Some U.S. Airlines Suspend Flights to China
Travel and gambling stocks have been hurt as travel is restricted and people cancel vacations for fear of being exposed. The usual flood of Chinese travelers to the casino hub of Macau has become a trickle.
Shares of a handful of small and mid-sized biotechs that are working on vaccines for the virus have soared. Analysts say it is unlikely the vaccines under development could make it to market in time to yield revenue from the current outbreak.
—Some Drugmakers Are Racing to Develop a Coronavirus Vaccine. Why Big Pharma Isn’ t Rushing In.
Oil prices recently fell to a three-month low, and U.S. benchmark crude is on track to suffer a loss of more than 12% in January as coronavirus intensifies the impact of seasonal weakness in the market, raising prospects for lower fuel prices.
— Oil Prices Are Slumping. The Market Fears the Worst of Coronavirus Is ‘ Yet to Come’ | business |
UPDATE1: Tokyo stocks bounce back on hopes for efforts to combat coronavirus | Tokyo stocks bounced back Friday on hopes for more measures to be taken globally to combat a new coronavirus spreading from China, after the World Health Organization declared an international health emergency.
The Tokyo market also got a boost from a batch of robust corporate earnings and forecasts in Japan, brokers said.
The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average ended up 227.43 points, or 0.99 percent, from Thursday at 23,205.18. The broader Topix index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange finished 9.67 points, or 0.58 percent, higher at 1,684.44.
The Nikkei briefly gained over 400 points in the morning after the WHO did not recommend any travel or trade restrictions Thursday, despite declaring the virus a global emergency.
The declaration, which will enable enhanced international cooperation to contain the disease, boosted hopes for stronger quarantine measures and vaccine development, while the WHO decision not to recommend travel and trade restrictions alleviated concerns over business activities and global growth, brokers said.
`` Shares were bought back as the worst hasn't happened at this point, '' said Shingo Ide, chief equity strategist at the NLI Research Institute.
But Tokyo stocks lacked momentum to rise further and some of their gains were pared later on moves to lock in profits, with the upcoming earnings and coronavirus-related news headlines being closely watched.
`` Investors were not totally relieved. The Nikkei is likely to fluctuate around 23,000 next week over the development of the virus outbreak and earnings results, '' Ide said.
Eased coronavirus fears prompted market players to unload the perceived safe-haven yen, pushing up the U.S. dollar to the 109 yen level.
On the TSE's First Section, advancing issues outnumbered decliners 1,507 to 573, while 79 ended unchanged. Gainers were led by real estate, iron and steel, and pharmaceutical issues.
Among companies that reported strong earnings, Fujitsu jumped 1,245 yen, or 12.0 percent, to 11,615 yen, after raising Thursday its earnings projection for the year through March.
Anritsu, a major supplier of measuring equipment for mobile phones, surged 155 yen, or 7.8 percent, to 2,149 yen, amid robust earnings released the previous day due to strong demand for next-generation 5G mobile communications networks.
Tokyo Electron advanced 550 yen, or 2.3 percent, to 24,500 yen, after its group operating profit for the October-December period beat expectations.
Upbeat earnings boosted the pharmaceutical sector, which rose 1.2 percent to become one of the best performing sectors of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's 33 sub-indexes.
Daiichi Sankyo rose 114 yen, or 1.6 percent, to 7,441 yen, and Chugai Pharmaceutical soared 800 yen, or 7.6 percent, to 11,265 yen.
Trading volume on the main section rose to 1,376.92 million shares from Thursday's 1,367.71 million shares.
==Kyodo
© Kyodo News International, Inc., source Newswire | business |
Recession? Correction? Coronavirus Isn’ t Likely to Cause Either. | If you’ re a bear, the escalating coronavirus outbreak lends itself to the argument that the U.S. economy might finally tip into recession and the stock market might finally correct.
After all, the economy is coming off a lackluster fourth quarter. Data from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2.1% rate—primarily because of a temporary collapse in imports, due to the U.S.-China trade war, that hid weakness in consumer spending and business investment. Without that trade boost, fourth-quarter GDP would have risen just 0.6%, a level not seen since the beginning of 2015.
Some prognosticators have been saying that it would take a shock to meaningfully push the U.S. economy down and the market lower this year. But it’ s too soon—and probably not right—to say that this fast-moving epidemic, declared a global emergency on Thursday by the World Health Organization, will be what derails the still-growing economy or end the nearly 11-year bull run.
Sure, the yield curve inverted on Thursday for the first time since October, as long-term yields fell below short-term yields—historically a recession indicator. The move wasn’ t coincidental: It came as investors reacted to coronavirus headlines and rushed to safe assets, says Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.
Read Next: Sports Gambling Will Be a Huge Opportunity. Bet on These Stocks.
And China’ s economy will certainly take a hit from the virus. “ Based on the continuing rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths, it’ s increasingly apparent the disease is becoming an economic as well as a public health concern, ” says Ben May, an economist at Oxford Economics. The near-term impact on Chinese GDP growth is apt to be large, he says, revising down his 2020 forecast to 5.6% from 6%.
Because of spillover effects, May says the impact on China’ s economy could, in turn, lower global growth this year by 0.2%.
Investors can’ t underestimate China’ s importance in the global economy. The U.S. is more dependent than ever on China, given the global supply chain and how big China is as a U.S. customer.
U.S. companies operating in China have reacted to the outbreak. Apple ( ticker: AAPL) has cut store operating hours there. American Airlines ( ticker: AAL) said it would halt flights to and from the Chinese mainland until the end of March. Starbucks ( SBUX) has closed more than half of its roughly 4,300 stores in China—its second-largest market—while McDonald’ s ( MCD) and Yum China Holdings ( YUMC) have similarly closed stores.
“ This is an economy with tentacles in every other economy, ” says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, and “ there is a storm out there. ” But while quick actions to contain the virus may hurt some companies’ first-quarter profits, they could stem damages later.
To go from having an impact on companies to hurting the broader U.S. economy, though, will take a lot more. To put it in perspective, it would take a loss of $ 22 billion in economic activity to move U.S. GDP by just 0.1%. For the sake of illustration, analysts at William Blair say that Starbucks’ closures would hurt revenue by about $ 25 million each week they’ re closed—meaning that it would take 880 weeks of Starbucks China store closures to shave 0.1% off of U.S. GDP.
Deutsche Bank’ s Sløk says that a hit from coronavirus on the U.S. economy would probably come from the stock market. “ It’ s really about the fear effect, ” he says. If equities were to sell off much more sharply, “ then the wealth effect would have a significant impact ” if it translated to pullbacks in consumer spending.
We’ re not there yet. Market losses have been restrained, with the S & P 500 losing 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.5% on the week and roughly flat for the month. One silver lining, some analysts say, is that higher sales at e-commerce and health-care companies could offset weakness in transportation and traditional retail sectors.
“ For those calling for a stock market correction, you would think the market would be more sensitive to the coronavirus news, ” Sløk says. The market has been resilient, he adds, making it difficult at this point to see how it results in a real economic dent. Sløk reiterates his view that the U.S. economy will grow about 2% for the next 18 months.
All of this isn’ t to say that the epidemic couldn’ t escalate as both a health and economic problem. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy-meeting news conference, said on Wednesday that uncertainties about the outlook remain, including those posed by the new coronavirus. But while he said there is likely to be some disruption to activity in China and possibly globally, Powell reminded investors that 85% of the U.S. economy is domestic.
There’ s one factor that could turn the coronavirus from a short-term, contained hit to a broader economic concern. China now has an enormous amount of debt, Grant Thornton’ s Swonk says, as opposed to much lower levels when the 2003 SARS outbreak rattled Asian economies and markets. “ What you worry about, ” she says, “ is what does this set in motion in China that is already fragile? ”
For now, though, Swonk—who has been warning of a 2020 recession long before the virus struck—thinks the outbreak will amount to a short-term disruption in the first quarter, with some activity hopefully recouped subsequently. It’ s too soon to say that this event could derail the current expansion, she says, adding that one upshot is a possible Fed interest-rate cut. | business |
Airlines Will Rebound from Coronavirus, Analysts Say | As coronavirus fears tank airline stocks, analysts believe the impact on full-year earnings and revenue for domestic airlines will be minimal. The trick, analysts say, is knowing when to buy the dip.
United Airlines ( ticker: UAL), Delta Air Lines ( DAL), and American Airlines ( AAL) will all miss their slated revenue per available seat per mile in the first quarter of 2019 due to decreased travel rates, an analyst at J.P. Morgan predicted in a note published Wednesday. However, lower fuel prices will ultimately balance out the decline.
These falling share prices, combined with the “ strength of non-virus fundamentals ” at the airlines, could lead to upside for investors when the stocks bounce back, J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote.
It’ s become a matter of timing. Baker expects domestic airline stocks to begin to rise in “ another week or so ” if there are no U.S. fatalities from the virus. However, he believes United, Delta, and American will not recover until fatalities in Asia slow, given their larger exposure to international markets.
He recommends purchasing the stocks if they drop 30% over 30 days, a “ consistently lucrative entry point, ” although Baker noted the possibility of hitting these prices is unlikely. For that to happen, United would have to drop to $ 62.79, Delta to $ 43.42, and American to $ 19.88, based on the stock prices of each on January 17.
Baker noted that while United has “ demonstrated a penchant for conservatism ” in its earnings predictions, it has the largest exposure to the Pacific region of the three major domestic carriers. This led Baker to forecast a “ low-end ” performance of total operating revenue divided by total available revenue per seat per mile this quarter.
Delta likewise will have a “ low-end outcome, ” Baker wrote, given both its moderate exposure to the region and habit to produce “ measured ” guides.
Although American Airlines has limited exposure to the region, its previous earnings guides have “ proven uneven, ” meaning the virus could come as an unexpected shock, Baker said. He expects the airline will “ slightly miss its low end. ”
The prices of jet fuel could balance the negative effects of the virus on airline stocks. Prices are down 13¢ a gallon since mid-January, Baker wrote. According to his calculations, each decrease of 10¢ a gallon counteracts a one-point decrease in revenue per available seat per mile over a year.
Fuel costs weigh heavily on airlines’ margins, accounting for 30% of United’ s annual expenses as an example.
Airline stocks across the globe are taking a hit. Baker charted the decline in international airline stocks since mid-January, with Air China dropping 16.2%, China Southern down 15.9%, China Eastern down 14.5%, Cathay down 10.6%, and Singapore Airlines down 5.3%. European airlines have likewise fallen, with Norwegian declining 14.0%, Air France dropping 13.0%, IAG down 11.1%, Lufthansa down 6.9%, easyJet down 4.2%, and Ryanair down 4.1%.
The World Health Organization declared coronavirus a global emergency on Thursday. On Monday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) issued a Level 3 warning, recommending people avoid all nonessential travel to China. The virus has killed over 200 people and infected more than 9,500, about a 2% fatality rate so far.
As a comparison, the CDC estimates an annual 9 to 45 million people have fallen ill due to the influenza virus, and between 2,000 to 61,000 people have died from it in the U.S. over the past decade. However, the unknown nature of coronavirus has fueled uncertainty.
Analysts are also looking to historical frameworks of the economic effects of previous virus outbreaks, including SARS, avian flu, and MERS, in order to model predictions of how this current contagion will affect earnings and revenue for domestic airlines.
Herbert wrote the SARS pandemic of 2003 was “ an economic sledgehammer to airlines in the Asia-Pacific region, ” as the number of kilometers flown by paying passengers declined by 35% regionally at the peak of the outbreak and declined by 8% for all of Asia during 2003. SARS had an almost 10% death rate, killing 774 of 8,098 people infected.
Baker stressed that SARS modeling is “ only useful up to a point ” because of other factors impacting airline metrics during that period, including the “ bankruptcy cycle. ”
The avian flu outbreak of 2004 to 2005 had more limited effects, with a 2% decline of regional kilometers flown by paying passengers. Herbert noted about 116 people fell ill and 60 died, “ an enormously high casualty rate of 52%. ”
The MERS outbreak of 2015 in the Middle East and South Korea had a fatality rate of 38%, infecting more than 1,300 people and killing 513. Herbert said the kilometers flown by paying passengers in South Korea “ plunged by 12% in the first month of the disease’ s spread in the country. ” However, he noted that passenger volumes recovered quickly within two months. | business |
The Dow Is Down 521 Points Because Coronavirus Isn’ t Going Away | Falling. The three major U.S. stock market indexes fell as fears about the spread of the coronavirus gathered weight.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 521 points, or 1.8%. The S & P 500 has lost 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite is off 1.4%.
Amazon.com ( ticker: AMZN) jumped 8.4% after its blowout fourth-quarter earnings.
Colgate-Palmolive ( CL) gained 6.2% after the consumer-packaged goods company beat Wall Street’ s revenue estimates.
Broadridge Financial Solutions ( BR) dropped 9% after its revenue for its fiscal second-quarter came in below even the lowest analyst estimate.
Celanese ( CE) lost 6.4% after the chemicals company missed both earnings-per-share and revenue estimates.
Amgen ( AMGN) slid 6% after the drugmaker’ s guidance for 2020 came in below analysts’ expectations. | business |
Honeywell Says Outlook Clouded by MAX Grounding, Coronavirus -- Update | By Thomas Gryta and Dave Sebastian
Honeywell International Inc.'s fourth-quarter profit dropped 9% on lower sales after spinning off two divisions last year.
The Charlotte, N.C., industrial conglomerate said Boeing Co.'s production halt of the 737 MAX would dent its aerospace business and expressed some caution in its full-year outlook because of economic and other uncertainties. For the quarter, net income dropped to $ 1.56 billion, or $ 2.16 a share, from $ 1.72 billion, or $ 2.31 a share, last year.
`` We're not going to promise things that we either don't have visibility or can't do, '' Chief Executive Darius Adamczyk told investors Friday. He added that there are `` quite a few unknowns, '' including the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
Honeywell shares were down $ 4.60, or 2.6%, to $ 173.74 amid a steep drop in the broad market.
Adjusted earnings were $ 2.06 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting adjusted earnings of $ 2.04 a share. Sales fell 2.4% to $ 9.5 billion from the same period last year as it accounted for the spinoffs of its homes and global-distribution businesses in 2018. Analysts were looking for $ 9.61 billion.
The company's organic sales, which exclude currency fluctuations and the effect of deals, rose 2%. Sales in the company's aerospace business rose 7% by the same measure.
The company expects earnings of $ 8.60 a share to $ 9 a share for 2020, up 5% to 10% on an adjusted basis. It sees sales of $ 36.7 billion to $ 37.8 billion for the full year, reflecting a growth of flat to 3% on an organic basis.
Mr. Adamczyk said the wide range of projections reflects some uncertainty around industrial sales cycles and other items, including the coronavirus outbreak.
`` The coronavirus right now as an example is something that's very difficult for us to predict around the impact, '' he said. `` What if this continues to spread? What if it gets worse? That impact could be substantially worse than what we're expecting. ''
Honeywell has limited travel to areas affected by the virus but hasn't estimated a financial impact if the coronavirus outbreak becomes more significant. It said the aviation industry is already seeing some reduced flight hours, something that hurts companies providing services to the airline industry.
Chief Financial Officer Greg Lewis said the outbreak `` could also have a broader negative impact on supply chains in the economy as was experienced with the SARS outbreak. ''
The aerospace business, Honeywell's largest unit by sales, generated $ 3.66 billion in sales in the quarter, compared with $ 3.43 billion in the prior year. The company produces a range of aerospace systems and technology, from electric power systems to engine controls.
The company said that Boeing's production halt of the 737 MAX would hurt the aerospace business, which accounted for about 40% of revenue and almost 50% of total segment profit in 2019. Previously, when the MAX was grounded but still being produced, Honeywell said it wasn't significantly hurt by the situation and didn't expect any effects for 2019.
Mr. Lewis said Friday that Honeywell is trying to mitigate the MAX effects from higher aftermarket sales and by using improved efficiency in its supply chain to increase production of back-ordered products. Honeywell has aligned its expectation with Boeing's communications that the plane will return to service in the middle of the year.
Honeywell said the earnings reduction will be `` somewhat muted '' and it expects Aerospace's organic sales to rise in the low to mid single digits for 2020, down from the 9% increase in 2019.
`` From a revenue perspective, it's not insignificant, '' Mr. Adamczyk said in reference to the MAX halt.
Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta @ wsj.com and Dave Sebastian at dave.sebastian @ wsj.com
| business |
There’ s a run on surgical masks despite ‘ no data’ showing they prevent coronavirus | Fear of being infected by the Wuhan coronavirus is pushing people around the globe to purchase surgical face masks to protect themselves. And demand for the products has reached such a fever pitch that Home Depot is now limiting sales of masks to customers.
But simple surgical masks won't prevent wearers from being infected by the virus, which has infected thousands in China, killed over 200 people, and spread to 18 other countries including the U.S. If anything, those who are already infected should be wearing the masks.
`` We know that those types of surgical masks are important to prevent transmission from someone with infection to other people, and that's pretty routine practice for infections that are spread by respiratory droplets like viruses, '' explained Dr. Jeffrey D. Klausner, professor of medicine and public health at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA.
`` However, there is no data to suggest that in people who are not infected that they provide any protection to prevent infection, to prevent exposure in terms of the typical surgical type mask, '' he added.
But that isn't stopping people from buying up masks at such a rapid pace that manufacturers have had to increase global production to keep up.
The coronavirus has now infected roughly 9,800 people, and has led to the lockdown of millions of residents around the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China. And while cases in the U.S. are still limited to the single digits, Americans are driving a run on face masks.
`` In the U.S., we are seeing increased demand for face masks and have limited purchase quantity to 10 per person to best serve as many customers as possible, '' a spokesperson for Home Depot ( HD) told Yahoo Finance. `` And our merchandising and supply chain teams are working hard to replenish these items as quickly as possible. ''
At Walgreens, there's been greater demand for items including face masks and hand sanitizer.
`` We continually and closely monitor these types of situations to ensure that we have sufficient supply of those products that may be in greater demand in order to meet the needs of our customers, '' a spokesperson told Yahoo Finance.
Meanwhile, 3M ( MMM) and Honeywell ( HON), which make face masks, are increasing output of masks to keep up with demand.
`` 3M is increasing global production of respiratory protection products as quickly as possible in response to the coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) outbreak, '' the company said in a statement. `` In China and around the world, 3M is working with customers, distributors, government and medical officials to help get supplies where they are needed. ''
Honeywell, meanwhile said it is seeing increased demand for protective face masks in North America, Europe, and China.
`` We are increasing production at multiple facilities globally, and we are working to fill all current orders, '' Honeywell's Eric Krantz told Yahoo Finance. `` In China, our products are available from JD.com and TMALL.com, and in the U.S. and Europe, they can be found at a number of retailers, including Amazon. ''
It makes sense that those afraid of contracting the virus would want to take preventative measures to keep themselves safe. But, unfortunately, most face masks won't protect you against the virus.
In other words, the masks will prevent you from spreading coronavirus to other people, but it won't prevent you from catching it.
`` The viruses are too small, and the air readily flows around the bridge of the nose and on the sides of the mask, '' Klausner explained. `` So those masks are not really designed to prevent people from inhaling viruses. What they are designed to do is to prevent people from coughing or sneezing respiratory viruses that they might have outward. ''
It's important to note, Klausner explained, that the coronavirus is a respiratory virus, not an airborne illness like, say, measles, which can linger in an area for some time.
In order for someone to pass coronavirus to another person, the infected individual would need to cough or sneeze near the uninfected person. Those respiratory droplets, as Klausner called them, can then float toward anyone within a 3- to 6-foot dispersal area, before quickly falling to the ground.
There are some masks that can prevent people from catching coronavirus and other respiratory illnesses, though. There’ s evidence to show that respirators, such as those with an N95 rating, can be effective, Klausner said. But they're also uncomfortable to wear for a very long time.
There could be some good to more people wearing face masks, however. According to Klausner, the uptick in awareness of the virus could lead more people to wash their hands, and avoid touching their eyes, nose, and mouth. And that may be among the most effective means of prevention available.
More from Dan:
Got a tip? Email Daniel Howley at danielphowley @ protonmail.com or dhowley @ yahoofinance.com, and follow him on Twitter at @ DanielHowley.
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit. | business |
TSX falls as coronavirus fears hit oil prices | The World Health Organization declared the epidemic a global emergency on Thursday after the virus killed more than 200 people in China and infected thousands globally.
Travel curbs and supply chain disruptions have prompted economists to assess the potential impact to global growth.
The energy sector dropped 1.6%, as U.S. crude prices were down 0.9% a barrel, while Brent crude lost 0.2%. [ O/R ]
At 09:46 a.m. ET ( 14:46 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S & P/TSX composite index was down 87.55 points, or 0.5%, at 17,403.01.
The materials sector rose 0.4% as gold miners gained on the back of higher prices of the precious metal. [ GOL/ ] [ MET/L ]
The largest percentage gainers on the TSX were Detour Gold Corp, which jumped 4.3% and Kirkland Lake Gold, which rose 3.8%
On the TSX, 83 issues were higher, while 144 issues declined for a 1.73-to-1 ratio to the downside, with 14.09 million shares traded.
Methanex Corp fell 5.3%, the most on the TSX, after TD Securities cut its price target on stock. The second biggest decliner was First Quantum Minerals Ltd, down 4.1%.
The most heavily traded stock by volume was StageZero Life Sciences Inc.
The TSX posted eight new 52-week highs and four new lows.
Across all Canadian issues there were 29 new 52-week highs and nine new lows, with total volume of 29.84 million shares.
( Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru) | business |
Gold gains on epidemic fears, eyes best month in five | Gold prices edged higher on Friday and were on track for their biggest monthly gain in five, as concerns of an economic slowdown arising from the coronavirus epidemic kept the safe-haven metal supported.
Spot gold rose 0.75% to $ 1,585.8 per ounce. The metal has gained 4% so far this month, on course for its best month since August. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $ 1,590.8 an ounce.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the coronavirus outbreak a global emergency, however, it opposed restrictions on travel or trade with China and showed confidence that China could contain it.
`` The virus and its potential to impact the global economy negatively is keeping gold supported, '' Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.
`` However, the lack of fresh buying is keeping the metal from moving up even though uncertainties around coronavirus is affecting other markets like the equities. ''
The virus, which has claimed 213 lives so far in China and has spread to at least 22 countries, has brought a halt to many provinces in the world's second-largest economy with lockdowns, travel restrictions and closed businesses.
World share markets fought to regain their footing as investors clutched at hopes that China could contain the coronavirus.
`` At this point, it ( impact from the virus) is not something the Chinese economy can shrug off, there will be a hit to growth, the magnitude of which will be difficult to chisel out in detail for quite a while, '' said Ilya Spivak, a senior currency strategist at DailyFx.
Meanwhile, surveys showed steady Chinese factory activity and firm services this month, though this was likely before the virus took full hold.
`` Wuhan fears should ensure that a break below $ 1,560 is very unlikely ahead of the weekend, '' Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
In Europe, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union an hour before midnight.
Palladium was down 0.7% at $ 2,294. Prices were set to gain 18% this month, the best since November 2016, but were down 5.7% this week.
Silver rose 0.1% to $ 17.85 and but was down 1.3% for the week, the worst since the week ended Dec. 6. Platinum shed 0.8%, to $ 970.04, and was on track to decline 3.2% for the week, its steepest since early November. | business |
Most Companies Overestimate Their Cybersecurity, but Resilience Is Possible |
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Etude
Strong cybersecurity is about more than technology; it also takes a long-term commitment to develop a range of strategic capabilities.
Par Frank Ford et Syed Ali
Etude
Few executives need to be told that cybersecurity is a critical issue, one that is central to protecting an organization’ s assets and reputation. Companies are spending more than ever to learn where they are vulnerable, to deploy the latest security solutions and to hire the talent necessary for a strong cyber defense. Our research finds that 97% of large firms have undergone audits or assessments of cybersecurity over the past three years, 70% regularly upgrade most of their cybersecurity technologies, and three out of four have senior executives focused squarely on cybersecurity, often a chief information security officer.
In spite of this investment, our research finds that many firms continue to overestimate the effectiveness of their cybersecurity because they fail to grasp the complexity of the challenge. Specifically, many are not developing the long-term strategic capabilities essential for robust cybersecurity. Indeed, most struggle to comply with simple best practices. Only 43% of executives believe that their firms follow best practices for cybersecurity, but deeper analysis identifies that only about 24% of firms actually meet that bar. This gap represents a broad swath of executives and companies who believe that they are better protected than they actually are. Meanwhile, cyberattacks are expected to cost businesses $ 6 trillion annually by 2021, twice the cost of 2015.
Time and again, a familiar pattern emerges in the post-mortem analysis of data breaches: Despite a high level of awareness among senior executives and substantial investments in cybersecurity technology, companies remain vulnerable and these weaknesses are ruthlessly exploited. A key factor in many breaches is that leaders fundamentally misunderstand the characteristics of good cybersecurity, and they underestimate the rigor necessary to achieve it. Consequently, they approach the issue at a tactical level, ticking boxes rather than undertaking the serious work of building deep and strategic capabilities necessary to achieve real cyber resilience.
At some level, executives appear to understand the limits of their cybersecurity posture: In a recent survey by security firm FireEye, slightly more than half of respondents don’ t believe that their organization would respond well to a cyberattack. The concern is warranted. A vast number of things need to work well to achieve cybersecurity resilience, and this complexity can overwhelm executives and misguide their focus ( see Figure 1).
The first place they look for solutions is usually technology. Large companies use dozens of products and services to meet their needs, and they invest in policies and standards to ensure that their defenses remain proactive and up to date. The greater challenge comes in ensuring constancy so that policies and standards are applied appropriately across complex global organizations. Even applying simple security patches can take large organizations months or even years to achieve, leaving systems vulnerable in the interim. Some large breaches in recent years were because of failures to update web servers against known vulnerabilities.
Technology is only one arrow in the quiver. Because so many cyberattacks start by exploiting vulnerabilities in employee behavior, education is also critically important. Fewer than half the companies we surveyed provide regular staff training on cybersecurity, and, far more surprising, only 55% provide adequate training for their cybersecurity professionals.
Third-party risk represents another common vulnerability, but fewer than half of companies regularly assess the security posture of their suppliers and partners.
Only 58% of executives continuously work to improve alignment between cybersecurity governance and business goals.
Most companies invest in audits to give leaders a sense of the state of their cybersecurity, but audits can also focus on superficial issues and lead to a false sense of security once the identified vulnerabilities are addressed piece by piece. Audits should help verify program delivery and outcomes; they should not serve as the primary input for defining programs or cybersecurity strategy.
Finally, executives struggle to understand how much they should spend on cybersecurity. Reliable industry benchmarks are difficult to find, so a lot of cybersecurity teams try to align their spending with peers based on available information. Most companies just roll their budgets over or add annual increases, but few take a zero-based approach to their cybersecurity spending based on the actual threat environment.
While all of these aspects of cybersecurity need to be addressed, none will build strong resiliency on its own or even jointly. The long-term solution requires redefining cybersecurity as a set of strategic capabilities that can be built and improved over time to continuously address the ever-evolving threat of cyberattacks. Neither technology solutions nor third-party services nor following industry standards can substitute for a fully holistic approach to cybersecurity maturity ( see Figure 2).
Building up these capabilities to the appropriate level of maturity takes a sustained effort over months or even years, but companies can achieve their cybersecurity maturity goals by following a clear set of discrete steps.
Finally, part of continuous assessment is understanding what level of risk can and should be mitigated through cybersecurity insurance. No amount of insurance can cover the damage of a major, highly visible security breach, but insurance is an indispensable component of cybersecurity risk management. FireEye found that half of the companies it surveyed are insured against this type of risk, and another 41% plan to add insurance over the next 18 months.
Bain's Frank Ford discusses how companies can address concerns by looking holistically at their cybersecurity maturity.
Taken as a whole, the approach to building cybersecurity capability maturity is a straightforward journey, not unlike other transformational initiatives, but experience shows that it can require sustained focus and a commitment of years to bring capability levels in line with the real needs of the company. The most important step is the first one: Executive teams must come to grips with the scale of the challenge and acknowledge that, in most cases, everything they are doing around cybersecurity is probably not enough. With that understanding, executives can take the necessary steps to increase their cyber resilience to protect their organization, its assets and its stakeholders.
Frank Ford is a partner and Syed Ali is an expert vice president with Bain’ s Enterprise Technology practice. Frank is based in London, and Syed is based in Houston.
Enterprise customers would buy more IoT devices if vendors could ensure better security.
Leaders change how they engage customers, simplify business processes, and redesign products and services.
Balance inclusionary actions with precautions to keep your people and operations running.
Industry 4.0 tools can cut manufacturing costs by up to 20%, improve quality and make deliveries more reliable.
Technology and analytics are key to weathering the coronavirus pandemic and emerging stronger.
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Drugmakers Race to Develop a Coronavirus Vaccine. | Four pharmaceutical giants dominate the vaccine business. Together, Pfizer, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline, and Sanofi sold about $ 30 billion worth of vaccines in 2019, a staggering sum, given that most vaccines sell for less than $ 100 in the U.S.
Yet when a new coronavirus spreading out from the Chinese city of Wuhan early this year, shaking global markets, none of the four set out to work on a rapid-response inoculation to stop the outbreak.
No real business model exists to justify developing vaccines for emerging viral threats, despite the broad impact they can have. Since Jan. 17, as the number of people sickened by the outbreak climbed near 10,000, the S & P 500 index has fallen 3.1%. Morgan Stanley estimates that the outbreak could cut global economic growth by up to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020, and that there could be a more severe impact in the second quarter if the situation worsens.
Still, viruses like the coronavirus aren’ t a big focus for the pharmaceutical industry. Drugmakers know how to make money on rare diseases. But vaccines for new viruses are expensive, have unpredictable demand, and are needed most in markets where patients have the least ability to pay.
“ The private sector will go toward where the returns are largest, and that is clearly now in a direction that is not efficient at improving public health, ” wrote Peter Bach, director of the Memorial Sloan Kettering’ s Center for Health Policy and Outcomes, in an email to Barron’ s.
Yet a handful of companies have come forward with plans to develop a vaccine: Johnson & Johnson ( ticker: JNJ), which has a small vaccine business, and three small biotechs.
How useful these programs will be for the current outbreak is uncertain. But they could be a model for how drug developers find incentives to work on emerging viral threats.
“ The hope is that there is a business model, ” said Charles Duncan, an senior biotechnology analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald. “ The belief is that the emergence of biological threats is going to become an increasingly common thing.... So we [ have ] got to get prepared for this. ”
Investors saw gold in the experimental vaccines, at least at first. Shares of Novavax ( NVAX), one of the three biotechs, jumped 146% from Jan. 14 through Jan. 21, to $ 9.82, before falling to $ 6.84 by the end of the day on Jan. 29. Inovio Pharmaceuticals ( INO) had a similar bump. These firms, along with Moderna ( MRNA), are using newer vaccine technologies that could allow for the production and development of vaccines much faster than older techniques. While the big four vaccine makers are the undisputed masters of churning out millions upon millions of doses of prophylactic vaccines each year, it is these newer modalities that offer a way to develop quick responses to new viral threats.
Some of the companies have tried this before. Johnson & Johnson developed an Ebola vaccine that went into Phase 1 trials in 2015 using the same technique it will use for the new coronavirus, and Moderna’ s coronavirus effort will use the same technique as its experimental Zika vaccine.
“ People forget very quickly when these are over, but one time this will go very bad, ” said Paul Stoffels, Johnson & Johnson’ s chief scientific officer. “ The world needs an accelerated program and platform to do this time and time again. We are training ourselves. But there are no incentives. ”
For now, the companies are relying on funding from nonprofits and governments. Moderna is collaborating with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, or NIAID, and received funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a nongovernmental organization funded by a handful of governments and private foundations.
“ We are leveraging not our shareholder’ s capital, but not-for-profit capital, in a way that’ s nondilutive to the rest of our efforts, ” said Tal Zaks, Moderna’ s chief medical officer.
The timeline for the coronavirus vaccines is not yet clear. The NIAID’ s director told S & P Global Market Intelligence that the Moderna vaccine could be ready for a Phase 1 study in three months, while Stoffels said that J & J could have a vaccine available in eight to 12 months. Inovio has said it hopes to bring its vaccine candidate into Phase 1 in less than seven months. Novavax’ s president of research and development has said that his company would work quickly, but didn’ t offer a specific time frame.
This weekly email offers a full list of stories and other features in this week's magazine. Saturday mornings ET.
Each company is building a platform to allow for the quick development of vaccines for the next novel virus.
“ Initially, the market is fairly limited, ” Cantor Fitzgerald’ s Duncan said. “ It’ s a result of a specific viral outbreak, and there are limited buyers, namely governments, that will want to access them. I do think that in the future, retail purchase of therapeutic and prophylactic vaccines will occur. ”
For investors, the question is whether the incentives will be enough to develop these technologies to a point where they can defend the rest of the economy -- and public health.
“ This is the third coronavirus in roughly two decades, ” said Duncan, referring to SARS and MERS, both of which are of the same family of virus as the new coronavirus. “ And we’ re going to see more. So we have got to get prepared for this. ”
Corrections & Amplifications: An earlier version of this article misstated the prices of Novavax shares on Jan. 21 and Jan. 29. | business |
European Stocks Are Facing Their Worst Week Since Last October | European markets fell into the red on Friday, and were headed for the worst weekly loss in months, as the U.K. reported its first cases of coronavirus and data showed softer growth in the eurozone.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.2% after closing down 1% on Thursday and snapping a two-session winning streak. Down 2% for the week so far, the index is on track for its biggest weekly loss since October 2019, as coronavirus worries have weighed on investors.
The German DAX 30 index slipped 0.2%, while the French CAC 40 index fell 0.4%. The FTSE 100 index dropped 0.7% on a day that will mark the country’ s official exit from the European Union more than three years after the Brexit vote.
Eurozone gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary Eurostat data. That was below the 0.2% growth expected.
Stocks were lifted earlier after China’ s official nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rose in January, though that data hasn’ t fully reflected the impact of the deadly coronavirus.
Stocks fell after the U.K. reported its first two cases of coronavirus on Friday, both members of the same family. The death toll from the virus has topped 200 in China, with nearly 10,000 confirmed cases, and the U.S. has advised citizens against travel to China after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency.
Drug stocks were among the gainers, with heavily weighted Roche Holding and Novartis both rising over 1%.
Spanish bank BBVA said it swung to a net loss in the fourth quarter due to the effects of a goodwill impairment at its U.S. business. Shares fell 0.5%. | business |
Alibaba Stock Looks Like a Buy on Coronavirus Fears | The inexorable rise of China’ s middle class is ultimately immune to the Wuhan coronavirus terrorizing financial markets.
The Chinese government will, in time, regain control of the situation and refocus the bulk of its immense power on strengthening and modernizing the world’ s second-largest economy. The economic hiccups caused by the virus should be viewed as short-term distractions that create opportunities for long-term investors to buy shares of Alibaba Group Holding ( ticker: BABA) at a time when investors are afraid.
The stock—whose virtues this column has extolled since its 2014 initial public offering—is caught in the middle of a tussle with investors that was exacerbated by Apple’ s ( AAPL) warning that China’ s woes could disrupt its profits.
Alibaba is a leading proxy for China’ s economic growth. When it became evident that the trade war with the U.S. would end, the stock began to surge in early October, eventually rising some 41%. Yet the Wuhan virus has stripped about 13% off the stock in the past few weeks amid headlines that can make it seem as if the world will soon be subsumed by a lethal virus.
An attractive opportunity is probably coalescing around Alibaba that is far less dramatic, and thus less newsworthy. It is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 13. The stock could make a sharp move in a short time if earnings are so strong, or the outlook so positive, that it overshadows the Wuhan troubles.
Investors are clearly debating whether the virus could truly disrupt China’ s economy and therefore Alibaba’ s incredible coterie of businesses. While it is hard to predict what happens in the next few weeks or months, it is reasonable to conclude that China’ s leaders will defuse the crisis. This view is predicated on a belief that the virus isn’ t a deadly global illness like the bubonic plague.
If you agree, the options market will pay investors to buy Alibaba’ s stock at lower prices while also enabling them to profit from advances in reaction to earnings.
A weekly guide to our best stories on technology, disruption, and the people and stocks in the middle of it all.
With Alibaba’ s stock around $ 206, investors can sell Alibaba’ s February $ 205 put that expires on Feb. 14 and buy Alibaba’ s February $ 210 call that also expires on Feb. 14. The “ risk reversal ” strategy—that is, selling a put and buying a call with a higher strike price but an identical expiration—generates a $ 1 credit, which means you get to paid to trade. The strategy is intended to position investors to buy Alibaba’ s stock at lower prices and to participate in rallies.
If the stock is at $ 220 at expiration, the call is worth $ 10. The key risk—and it can not be overstated—is that Alibaba’ s stock is sharply lower than the put strike price, which could be caused by a bad earnings report, a weak management outlook, or a worsening of the Wuhan virus.
The risk factors should not be terribly nettlesome to long-term investors. Just be sure that you have the financial and emotional wherewithal to handle owning a short put when the associated stock price is declining. In those moments, it often feels like Mr. Market’ s foot is on your neck and all of Wall Street is laughing at your pain.
But if you can handle volatility, trading Alibaba into earnings is a solid, concentrated wager. During the past 52 weeks, the stock has ranged from $ 147.95 to $ 231.09 and is up 26%, just trailing the S & P 500 index’ s 29% gain. It is down about 3% this year.
Despite the Wuhan virus, investors are starting to show a big appetite for emerging markets. On Tuesday, when the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund ( EEM) was around $ 43, an investor bought 100,000 February $ 45 calls and sold the same number of February $ 46 calls in anticipation that the ETF rallies over the next few weeks. Its biggest holding? Alibaba. | business |
Constellation Brands acquires minority stake in Press seltzer | Or wait...
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31-Jan-2020 - Last updated on 31-Jan-2020 at 10:08 GMT
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Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
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Total annual sales of hard seltzer in the US have reached approximately 82.5m nine-liter cases, and IWSR estimates expect sales to triple to more than 281m cases by 2023.
Constellation Brands is also launching its home grown Corona Hard Seltzer this spring: an extension of its global Corona brand. Corona Hard Seltzer ( 4.5% ABV) will be introduced in four flavors in the US: tropical lime, mango, cherry and blackberry lime. | general |
China's factory activity stalls as virus risks grow | Growth in China’ s factory activity faltered in January, an official survey showed, as export orders fell and an outbreak of a new virus added to risks facing the world’ s second-largest economy.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index ( PMI) fell to 50.0 in January from 50.2 in December, China’ s National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS) said on Friday. The reading was in line with analysts’ forecasts and hit the neutral 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
While the PMI showed activity in some parts of the sector holding up, economists are doubtful the survey provides a meaningful read on the economy given recent developments with the coronavirus and distortions from the Lunar New Year break.
More than 200 people have died from the virus in China in the past few weeks, prompting widespread transport curbs and tough public health measures that are weighing heavily on the travel, tourism and retail sectors. Analysts say the fast-spreading virus could hurt first-quarter economic growth.
“ I would disregard today’ s release, ” said Raymond Yeung, Chief Economist for Greater China at ANZ, in an email to Reuters.
“ The figure certainly overrates the economic outlook as it does not reflect the interruption due to the outbreak, ” he said.
China’ s economic growth cooled to its weakest in nearly 30 years in 2019 amid a bruising trade war with the United States.
The PMI’ s component indicators painted a mixed picture of the sector.
New export orders slipped back into contraction after rising for the first time in over a year in December while production slowed from a multi-month high but remained in expansionary territory. Total new orders expanded at a slightly faster clip than the month before.
The sub-index for imports fell deeper into contraction.
Factories also continued to shed jobs in January, although the pace of reduction slowed.
China watchers typically advise caution in their analysis of economic data early in the year due to the effect of the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, which usually slows activity.
Many firms scale back operations or close for long periods around the holidays, which began on Jan. 24 this year. This year, China’ s government extended the Lunar New Year holidays to limit the spread of the virus.
“ Extended closures could ripple through supply chains across China and beyond, ” Capital Economics said in a note to clients this week.
In contrast, activity in China’ s service sector quickened with the official non-manufacturing PMI rising to 54.1 from 53.5 in December.
However, the NBS warned the impact of the coronavirus is not fully reflected in the survey and that more observation was needed.
Already, the outbreak has been seen hitting service sectors such as transportation, tourism, catering and entertainment as people avoid crowded areas.
Analysts estimated its impact on China’ s economy could be bigger than that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS), which also originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.
Beijing has relied more on services and consumption to offset manufacturing weakness now than then.
One bright spot might be construction, Capital Economics said in a note, with the sub-index for the industry rising to 59.7 in January from 56.7, a sign local governments have been quick to begin new infrastructure projects this year.
Economic growth in China slowed to 6.1% last year, the weakest pace in nearly three decades, amid a bruising trade war with the United States and despite Beijing’ s stimulus to boost sluggish investment and demand.
“ We expect a big plunge of both manufacturing and service PMIs in February and March due to the coronavirus outbreak, ” Ting Lu, Chief China Economist at Nomura, said.
Beijing will try to provide liquidity and credit support to the economy, especially to businesses severely hit by the outbreak, he said.
“ However, it seems unlikely that these measures would turn the economy around in Q1 and part of Q2, as the virus outbreak may further weaken domestic demand and thus render the upcoming policy easing less effective. ”
Editing by Sam Holmes | business |
As coronavirus spreads, so do spurious online claims about it in Hong Kong | A surge in fake news surrounding face masks in recent days has left the Hong Kong government and social media platforms trying to stem a tide of misinformation shared among city residents. | business |
How the coronavirus crisis is exposing the ills of the China model | China is effectively in a lockdown. From big cities to little villages, almost every community is under quarantine to a varying degree, or at least faces some travel restrictions. There is little information on how long this will last. One thing for sure is that the government is willing to keep the country in lockdown until the virus outbreak comes under control. A government mobilisation on this scale is unprecedented. | business |
India’ s homeopathic ‘ cure’ for coronavirus ‘ immature and irresponsible’ | The Indian Medical Association has assailed the Indian ministry that promotes traditional healing for peddling “ immature and irresponsible ” homeopathic remedies to prevent infections of the novel coronavirus. | business |
Coronavirus: Global health emergency declared by World Health Organisation, reversing earlier decision on outbreak | The World Health Organisation ( WHO) declared a global public health emergency over the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus on Thursday, citing the potential of the virus to spread to countries not prepared to deal with the contagion. | business |
China’ s race to build temporary hospitals to fight coronavirus ‘ too little too late’ | As the number of new | business |
Hitachi's net profit sinks 33% on weak overseas sales from April to December | Hitachi Ltd. reported Friday its group net profit for the April to December period sank 33.3 percent from a year earlier to ¥55.15 billion ( $ 505 million) because of falling sales in China and elsewhere in Asia.
The industrial machinery and electronic device manufacturer also said operating profit fell 16.6 percent to ¥445.63 billion on sales of ¥6.34 trillion, down 6.5 percent.
Asia comprises the largest market for Hitachi outside Japan, accounting for 21 percent of total sales, around half from China. In the world’ s second-largest economy, revenue fell 10 percent to ¥707.9 billion in the reporting period.
Chief Financial Officer Mitsuaki Nishiyama said at a news conference that the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China has “ made it even more difficult ” to form an outlook for the global economy.
“ We need to closely watch the situation such as the extent of the spread of the virus and its impact on global supply chains. But in any case, we can’ t expect a big recovery in macroeconomics, ” he said.
Hitachi said falling sales in the energy and automotive sectors failed to make up for a boost in revenue from information technology services and industry-use equipment, such as air conditioners.
Hitachi maintained its net profit forecast for the full fiscal year to March at ¥170 billion after booking a one-time expense of ¥378 billion stemming from a settlement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. over losses from a thermal power generation project in South Africa that involved their joint venture.
It lowered its projection for operating profit to ¥669 billion from ¥685 billion but kept its sales outlook at ¥8.70 trillion. | tech |
China virus triggers global rush for protective masks | SEOUL/BEIJING – From South Korea to the Czech Republic, China’ s coronavirus outbreak has triggered a massive surge in demand for protective masks, with factories scrambling to fill orders and shops selling out.
The virus, which first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has killed 170 people and infected more than 8,000. It spreads through droplets from coughs and sneezes.
Fears of infection have sent people rushing to pharmacies. In Hong Kong’ s Kowloon district, anxious residents waited seven hours on Thursday only to discover stores had sold out of masks.
Manufacturers have had to ramp up production, with some running factories 24 hours a day.
“ We are considering increasing shifts to two, three in order to meet demand but capacity is limited, there’ s only so much we can do, ” said an official at Kukje Pharma Co., a South Korean mask manufacturer.
The company has received a rush of orders for “ tens of millions of masks ” since Jan. 24, he said.
In China, many factories are reopening from their Lunar New Year break and calling back workers from their holidays.
CMmask, a Chinese mask maker that supplies 30 percent of the domestic market, is receiving daily orders for 5 million masks, more than 10 times its usual level.
Hu Qinghui, CMmask’ s deputy general manager, said its stockpile of more than 10 million masks was exhausted last week. It has resumed production and called back more than 130 workers with offers to triple their wages.
“ The whole thing is so unexpected. We actually had a tough year in 2019 due to soft demand as air quality is getting better across the country, ” Hu said.
However, just 40 percent of China’ s mask factories, which supply half of global demand, have resumed production, an industry ministry official told the state-run People’ s Daily newspaper.
As the global shortage worsened, Pardam, a Czech Republic mask manufacturer, has seen orders from Asia and Europe increase sharply.
“ We are absolutely sold out, ” said R & D specialist Jana Ruzickova. “ Now we are trying our best to increase our production. ”
“ Demand … increased in the last four days by 57,000 percent. This number can not be accommodated, even by any well-established firm in the world, ” said Pavel Malus from the Czech Nanotechnology Association.
In Turkey, Erol Memis of Era Respiratory Masks near Istanbul said the company had been working round the clock since receiving its first order from China on Thursday.
Era had also received inquiries from Switzerland, France, Belgium, Georgia, Armenia and Egypt. “ It is not possible for us to complete every request, ” Memis said.
Amid heightened anxieties about the virus, retailers and authorities have sought to stop hoarding and price gouging.
Taiwan announced a one-month ban on the export of specialist masks, while Singapore’ s largest supermarket chain NTUC Fairprice has limited customer purchases.
In China, a Beijing drugstore was fined 3 million yuan ( $ 435,000) for hiking mask prices by almost six times.
Meanwhile, the spike in demand has provided a massive boost for shares of mask makers, with Japan’ s Kawamoto Corp. up nearly six-fold to a record high. In South Korea, Kukje and Monalisa Co. Ltd rose 58 percent and 86 percent, respectively. | tech |
The Trump administration's'realism ' isn't the answer | Overlooked amid the fear triggered by the coronavirus outbreak and the noise generated by the impeachment proceedings in the United States, was the announcement Tuesday in Washington of U.S. President Donald Trump’ s plan to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict.
A deal touted by Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and their supporters as “ the deal of the century ” was pronounced dead on arrival by the Palestinians and most independent observers.
While the terms of the deal are troubling — they are so one-sided that they risk renewed instability in the region — the greatest concern in Tokyo should be the “ realism ” that is said to guide the Trump administration’ s thinking. If this is any indication of how Trump will deal with other international issues, Japan should be worried.
The proposal revealed this week was three years in the making. Shepherded by special adviser Jared Kushner ( the president’ s son-in-law), the plan was developed in close consultation with the Israeli government and some Arab interlocutors.
The Palestinians were not involved, having dropped out of the process in December 2017, when Trump said that he would move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. That, for them, was proof that Trump was not an honest broker and would favor Israel in the peace process.
Trump’ s plan confirms that fear. It gives Israel sovereignty over land west of the Jordan River captured in the 1967 Six Day War, declares an undivided Jerusalem capital of Israel and leaves intact all Israeli settlements on Arab land. Trump said the Palestinians get more than double their current territory, but a map shows what looks like an unmade jigsaw puzzle, with pieces scattered here and there, noncontiguous, and some parcels deep in the desert. They are also given land for a capital in a suburb on the eastern outskirts of Jerusalem — outside the municipal boundaries of the city — and most pointedly not in East Jerusalem, as they and the international community had sought.
More demeaning, the eventual Palestinian state will not have a military and it will only be recognized as an independent country when it meets a list of criteria that the U.S. and Israel will supervise. On that list is a governing system with the rule of law, freedom of press, free and fair elections, respect for human rights, religious freedom and an independent judiciary, as well as a financial system on par with those of the West. It must renounce all violence against its neighbors and end propaganda that instills hatred. All militant groups must be disbanded. Critics note that no other country in the region, perhaps not even Israel, would meet those criteria.
President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority denounced the plan as a “ conspiracy deal, ” adding that “ our people will throw it into the garbage can of history. ”
Hanan Ashrawi, a senior Palestine Liberation Organization official called it “ an existential assault on Palestine and the Palestinian people. ” Regional powers are concerned that Palestinians will lash out against Israel, especially if Netanyahu goes ahead with plans to annex West Bank settlements in the near future.
The Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, has commenced discussions with Hamas, the militant group that governs the Gaza Strip, on a united response to the proposal. Previously the two groups have been bitter rivals; they have found a common enemy that unites them.
The Middle East is far from Japan, but the ripple effects of that plan could reach these shores. More worrying is what the proposal reveals about foreign policy and deal-making in the Trump administration.
The first concern is the seeming inability of the Trump team to understand the motivations of the people with which it is engaging. Trump and Kushner believe that Palestinians should be laser focused on the economic opportunities within reach: $ 50 billion in investment ( although where that money will come from is unclear). They insist that economic gains should outweigh all political considerations, a point that Kushner underscored when he defended the proposal by arguing that the Palestinian leadership should “ stop posturing and do what’ s best to try to make the Palestinians’ lives better. ”
If the Palestinians resist that logic — so far they have rejected it out of hand — it is unlikely to be any more persuasive with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who is being asked to give up his nuclear weapons in exchange for similar investments. At the Singapore summit, Trump urged Kim to use “ a real estate perspective ” and then touted North Korea’ s “ great ” beaches. But money is not the ultimate criteria for these leaders; political dignity and regime survival take precedence.
A second concern is the weight that Trump accords his personal ties with world leaders, a priority that seems to overtake even the national interest. The Middle East proposal makes little pretense of equality, clearly favoring the personal and political interests of Trump’ s friend and ally, Netanyahu.
While Trump has an affinity for Israel — credit Kushner’ s influence and the power of evangelical voters among his political base — there is also the close personal relationship he has forged with Netanyahu. Throughout trade negotiations with China, for example, the president backed away from measures that would penalize Chinese companies ( ZTE, for example) out of deference to his “ friend, ” President Xi Jinping. It is reasonable to expect similar efforts to accommodate Kim, a man with whom Trump has said he “ has fallen in love. ”
Finally, there is the “ realism ” that guides the president’ s thinking. Trump called his Middle East plan “ realistic ”: It focuses on practical concerns, accepts facts on the ground and offers both sides a chance to realize their stated goals. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has justified U.S. policy — particularly when Trump abandons positions long held by prior administrations — by arguing that it “ recognizes reality on the ground, ” for example, calling international law an “ impediment, this idea that somehow there was going to be a legal resolution. ” Will Trump also decide that North Korea’ s nuclear arsenal is another such “ reality ” to be accepted rather than undone?
His belief in his unique ability to solve problems, a desire to accommodate friends, a readiness to accept “ facts on the ground, ” and a hunger to do the “ big things ” that his predecessors could not, all push Trump to make deals like his Middle East peace proposal that are far less than they seem. And when they fail, the administration will blame the party across the table, as Kushner suggested in his defense of the proposal he developed, noting that the Palestinians “ have a perfect track record of blowing every opportunity they’ ve had in their past. ” Perhaps, but the administration must also ensure that it does not make a bad situation even worse.
Brad Glosserman is deputy director of and visiting professor at the Center for Rule Making Strategies at Tama University as well as senior adviser ( nonresident) at Pacific Forum. He is the author of “ Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions. ” | tech |
British evacuation flight cleared to leave coronavirus epicenter in China | LONDON – Britain will fly around 150 British citizens and 50 non-British nationals out of the Chinese city of Wuhan, the government said on Thursday, after an earlier departure was blocked by Chinese authorities.
Infections from China’ s coronavirus spread to more than 8,100 people globally on Thursday, surpassing the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic’ s total in a fast-spreading health crisis forecast to pummel the world’ s second-largest economy.
“ We are pleased to have confirmation from the Chinese authorities that the evacuation flight from Wuhan airport to the U.K. can depart at 0500 local time on Friday ( 2100 GMT on Thursday), ” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said.
The flight had previously been expected to leave on Thursday morning. A government spokesman said any British citizens who were eligible for the flight would be given a seat.
The plane has been chartered by the British government from a Spanish company. It will unload British citizens at a military base in England and then travel on to Spain, where Spanish and other passengers will disembark.
Those returning to the United Kingdom will be quarantined for 14 days at a National Health Service facility once they return. Those already infected will not be allowed to leave Wuhan.
Some British citizens have spoken of being told they are unable to bring family members with Chinese passports out of the city. A government spokesman said that Britain was still working with Chinese authorities to resolve the issue.
Natalie Francis, 31, an English teacher in Wuhan, said she was told by the Foreign Office that she could not bring her 3-year-old son, Jamie, home because he has a Chinese passport even though he is a British citizen.
“ They said anyone with Chinese nationality or other citizenship is not being allowed to go on, ” Francis told The Sun newspaper. | tech |
As the coronavirus spreads, fear is fueling racism and xenophobia | The headlines drew immediate outrage. Readers accused the paper of using ignorant and offensive language.
`` Yellow Peril '' was an old racist ideology that targeted East Asians in Western countries. The phrase embodies the worst of anti-Asian fears and stereotypes, which have plagued immigrant communities since the first waves of Chinese immigration to the United States began in the 19th century.
In the US, government propaganda and pop culture at the time spread wildly racist and inaccurate images of Chinese people as unclean, uncivilized, immoral, and a threat to society.
To invoke the term now, in a story about death and illness in Asia, seems thoughtless at best and blatantly racist at worst.
The newspaper apologized quickly and said they had no intention of perpetuating `` racist stereotypes of Asians. '' But the damage is not so easily undone, and the paper is not the sole culprit -- merely the latest in a wave of anti-Chinese sentiment as the coronavirus spreads worldwide.
The escalating global health crisis has claimed more than 200 lives -- all in China -- and infected close to 10,000 people worldwide. As they seek to contain the virus, authorities in multiple countries are balancing the need for warnings against the risk of creating global panic.
However, there are signs that's already happening, with face masks selling out in stores and people locking themselves at home. Some people in central China -- the epicenter of the outbreak -- are desperately taking any flight out, regardless of destination, as governments worldwide suspend flights from China and impose restrictions on travelers from the mainland.
But the panic has also taken another, more familiar form, with the re-emergence of old racist tropes that portray Asians, their food, and their customs as unsafe and unwelcome.
As panic spreads, so does racism
As news of the virus has spread, many people of Asian descent living abroad say they have been treated like walking pathogens.
Writing for the UK's Guardian newspaper, one British-Chinese journalist in London said a man quickly moved seats when he sat down on a bus.
A Malaysian-Chinese social worker experienced the same thing on a London bus this week. `` A couple of people at an East London school I work in have asked me why Chinese people eat weird food when they know it causes viruses, '' she told CNN.
In Canada, there have been reports of Chinese children being bullied or singled out at school. In New Zealand -- where there are no confirmed coronavirus cases -- a Singaporean woman says she was confronted and faced racist harassment in a mall.
These instances echo a long history of racism in the West. During the Yellow Peril era, anti-Chinese fears led to lynchings of Chinese immigrants, racial violence, systemic discrimination -- even an outright ban on Chinese immigrants for 61 years in the US under the country's Exclusion Act.
That's why the term `` Yellow Peril, '' which contains centuries of trauma, is so charged -- and why the use of it in a contemporary headline was so stunning.
However, this time around anti-Chinese racism is spreading beyond the West. In Vietnam, signs have been seen outside restaurants declaring `` No Chinese. '' The tourist who took the photo told CNN the sign appeared in the past week. Similar signs were also posted outside a Japanese shop, turning away Chinese customers.
And people online from various different places are making racially driven jokes; when TV host James Corden posted a photo with Korean-pop band BTS, one person tweeted, `` BREAKING: James Corden dies of the coronavirus. '' The joke racked up nearly 25,000 likes on Twitter.
Targeting Chinese food
Perhaps the most widespread form of xenophobia comes in fearmongering, sensationalist stereotypes about Chinese food.
The novel coronavirus is believed to have started in a Wuhan seafood and wildlife market, and scientists have pointed to bats and snakes as possible virus carriers. And while the wildlife trade poses legitimate problems, the outbreak has prompted a racially tinged wave of disgust toward Chinese food, and anger from many who accuse Chinese people of recklessly causing a potential global pandemic.
`` Because of some folks in China who eat weird ( foods) like bats, rats, and snakes, the entire world is about to suffer a plague, '' said one popular tweet.
This idea has been reinforced by recent media coverage of the coronavirus, some of which has featured misleading videos or photos. One widely shared video, of a Chinese travel blogger eating bat soup, was filmed three years ago in the Pacific island nation of Palau, and the dish has been sampled by Western TV hosts in the past.
The video and the blogger have no connection to Wuhan or the current outbreak -- but the video has gone viral nonetheless, with many Western viewers expressing horror on social media. There was such an uproar that the blogger came forward to apologize last week.
What viral misinformation and breathless media coverage often miss is that only a small minority of people in China actually eat wild animals. Most people eat much of the same things you would see in other cuisines, like pork or chicken. Ultimately, what people like to eat is culturally relative -- a lot of the Western disgust toward `` weird '' Chinese food is itself Eurocentric.
That's not to say all criticism of Chinese food is invalid; the country does have a problem with badly-regulated trade of wild animals, which has led to previous outbreaks.
The deadly 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) was traced to the civet cat, considered a delicacy in southern China. And though the government has introduced some measures limiting wildlife trade, it has been reluctant to take more aggressive action, and illegal trade continues.
It's also difficult to end these practices because of the cultural significance and prevalence of traditional Chinese medicine. Many of these wild animals are thought to hold important medicinal properties -- for instance, people drink snake soup for arthritis and snake bile for a sore throat.
There is undoubtedly a larger issue that needs to be addressed -- how the government can balance tradition with safer regulations.
But the beliefs and customs that drive consumption of these foods are centuries old and interwoven in peoples ' lives -- they are not so easy to undo, even less so when they are dismissed as primitive and unclean by foreign countries.
'Standing with our Chinese community '
Right now, we are only seeing early signs of a xenophobic backlash against the East Asian diaspora -- tasteless jokes online, bad headlines, people acting fearfully in public. But if the 2003 SARS epidemic is any model to go by, these strands of xenophobia could potentially escalate into more dangerous, explicit forms of racism.
At the peak of the 2003 outbreak, people of Asian descent were treated like pariahs in the West. There were reports of white people covering their faces in the presence of Asian coworkers, and real estate agents who were told not to serve Asian clients.
Asian people suffered threats of eviction, had job offers rescinded with no explanation, and some Asian Canadian organizations received outright hate messages. Chinese and Asian businesses suffered heavy losses; in Boston, an April Fool's hoax falsely warned of infected employees at a Chinese restaurant, reportedly causing a 70% drop in the restaurant's business.
This all happened 17 years ago, when China was still slowly opening up. Now it's an emerging superpower, and its role in a range of recent conflicts -- the ongoing US-China trade war, security concerns surrounding telecommunications company Huawei, allegations of Chinese spies in America and Australia -- mean that many in the West already view China with greater suspicion and tension than they did before.
Add the threat of a global pandemic, and a wave of heightened discrimination could be even uglier this time around.
Diaspora communities and local authorities are preparing for this, with many trying to calm fear before it becomes hysteria. In France, the newspaper controversy sparked a social media campaign, with many French Chinese citizens using the hashtag # JeNeSuisPasUnVirus -- I am not a virus.
In a statement confirming the first case of coronavirus in Los Angeles this week, the local health department stressed that `` people should not be excluded from activities based on their race, country of origin, or recent travel if they do not have symptoms of respiratory illness. ''
The head of Toronto Public Health also warned that misinformation about the virus had created `` unnecessary stigma against members of our community. ''
`` I am deeply concerned and find it disappointing that this is happening, '' said the head, Eileen de Villa, in a statement Wednesday. `` Discrimination is not acceptable. It is not helpful and spreading misinformation does not offer anyone protection. ''
Toronto Mayor John Tory also spoke out this week about the coronavirus panic. `` Standing with our Chinese community against stigmatization and discrimination, '' he said. `` We must not allow fear to triumph over our values as a city. '' | business |
The dentist, the donor, the dude in the van: Canadian coronavirus profiteers run rampant as Vancouver donates thousands of N95 medical masks to Wuhan | The deal took place at 9.30pm at a strip mall in Richmond, outside Vancouver, where “ a Russian dude in a van ” gave Anthony Tsui a sample of his merchandise. | business |
Lipton Owner Unilever Weighs Tea Exit as New Drinks Gain -- WSJ | By Saabira Chaudhuri
The world's largest tea maker is considering giving up on tea.
Unilever PLC is exploring the sale of its tea business after years of sluggish sales growth, in a sign of how changing tastes are roiling some of the world's best-known food and drink brands.
The owner of Lipton, Brooke Bond and PG Tips has struggled to drive growth in black tea, which makes up the bulk of its portfolio. The company says consumption has declined in developed markets like the U.S. and Europe as consumers increasingly reach for other drinks. When they do drink tea, it is increasingly herbal or fruit-infused.
`` Insanity is carrying on doing the same thing expecting different outcomes, '' Chief Executive Alan Jope said Thursday. `` For 10 years we 've been trying to ignite growth into our tea business unsuccessfully. ''
The review of the tea business, which generates annual sales of about EUR3 billion ( $ 3.3 billion), could lead to an outright sale, part ownership or a different structure.
Unilever executives said the tea business was a similar size, and had comparable geographic reach, to the spreads division it sold for about $ 8 billion in 2018. The company hopes the tea business will draw interest from other tea makers looking to cut costs in what is a highly fragmented market.
The news came as Unilever, which also owns Hellmann's mayonnaise and Dove soap, reported anemic sales growth for the fourth quarter and said it was continuing to evaluate its broader portfolio. Underlying sales growth for the last three months of 2019 came in at 1.5%, down from 2.9% in the prior-year period.
Unilever has tried to pivot away from black tea in the developed world, buying Pukka Herbs, a British organic herbal tea maker, and Tazo Tea from Starbucks Corp. It also bought premium Australian tea company T2, which sells pricey loose leaf in flavors like beetroot and broccoli and red chocolate mint. It has since rolled the brand out internationally.
Despite those efforts, the company's greater presence in black tea has weighed on the business.
For 2019, Unilever's tea volumes dropped, even as prices helped buoy sales overall.
Some segments within black tea, like ready-to-drink and speciality, are still performing well, says Peter Goggi, president of the Tea Association of the USA, a trade body. Unilever has a joint venture with PepsiCo Inc. to sell Lipton ready-to-drink tea, which is included in the review.
Unilever became a tea giant in 1971 when it acquired Lipton, a business founded by a young Scottish entrepreneur. In 1984, it bought Brooke Bond, the world's largest tea company, giving it the leading position in Britain, a nation of avid tea drinkers.
The Anglo-Dutch company has come up with new products for decades in an attempt to forestall any slowdown, including pyramid-shaped tea bags in the 1990s, which it claimed improved taste.
Thursday's announcement is the latest sign of how packaged food makers are being forced to make big changes to respond to fast-changing shopper tastes.
`` Younger consumers are looking for novel experiences, '' Mr. Jope said. `` The black tea drinkers are getting older and consuming less and will start to fall over and that is actually the fundamental problem. ''
Apart from shifting demographics, Mr. Jope also blamed the low price of a cup of tea as thwarting the company's premiumization efforts. Others in the industry, like Associated British Foods PLC-owned Twinings, have been more successful at premiumizing tea, but prices in general have remained low, he said.
Unilever's recent financial performance has piled pressure on Mr. Jope -- who became CEO last year -- to jump-start growth.
In December, Unilever disappointed investors, warning that sales growth on an underlying basis -- which strips out currency and acquisition impacts -- would be below its guidance of 3% to 5% in 2019.
The company said it still expects growth this year to be at the lower end of that target, but that it was yet to account for the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
Unilever's full-year revenue rose 2% to EUR51.98 billion. Net profit dropped 40% to EUR5.63 billion compared with the previous year, which was boosted by a gain from the sale of the spreads business.
Aside from tea, Unilever is contending with changing tastes and rising competition in the U.S. haircare market, where it is battling longtime rival Procter & Gamble Co. and a host of smaller shampoo brands. It is also grappling with an economic slowdown in India -- its largest market by volume.
Write to Saabira Chaudhuri at saabira.chaudhuri @ wsj.com
| business |
Watch live: White House coronavirus task force holds briefing amid outbreak | [ The stream is slated to start at 3:30 p.m. ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time. ]
The White House is expected to address the widening outbreak of the coronavirus Friday afternoon.
The briefing comes hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quarantined 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, which has become the epicenter for the spread of the virus.
`` While we recognize this is an unprecedented action, we are facing an unprecedented public health threat, '' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a conference call with reporters Friday.
The virus, which first emerged about one month ago, has infected nearly 10,000 people, Chinese authorities said. There have been at least 213 deaths.
The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency on Thursday.
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Gilead working with China to test Ebola drug as new coronavirus treatment | treatment @ ( Adds coronavirus details, Ebola drug background)
Jan 31 ( Reuters) - Gilead Sciences Inc said on Friday it provided its experimental Ebola therapy for use in a small number of patients with the coronavirus that has killed over 200 so far in China and is working with the country's authorities to set up a study.
The announcement comes a day after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus epidemic a public health emergency of international concern.
The company said it was also expediting laboratory testing of the antiviral drug, remdesivir, against samples of the new coronavirus, which has infected nearly 10,000 globally.
Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday joined a growing list of drugmakers to begin work on developing a vaccine for the virus.
Last week, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told Reuters his agency was working with Gilead to test remdesivir.
The drug had previously been tested in patients with Ebola but was found to be ineffective. Gilead told Reuters last week that the drug was shown to be active in animals with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, which are closely related to the current virus.
As health authorities race to contain the outbreak, U.S. health officials on Friday said nearly 200 Americans were placed under quarantine at a U.S. air base in California after being evacuated from Wuhan, China. ( Reporting by Saumya Sibi Joseph in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel) | business |
OPEC, Russia could discuss emergency cuts as coronavirus crushes oil | OPEC and its allies could meet soon to discuss deepening their production cuts, in an effort to stem the sharp decline in oil prices due to a demand scare from the coronavirus outbreak.
Oil has plunged 21.4% from the early January high when Iran launched rockets at U.S. military bases in Iraq. Oil markets had expected an improving global economy this year, after the U.S. and China reached a first phase trade deal, but the coronavirus has now threatened Chinese and global growth.
`` This is a worst case scenario for them—a hit to demand in China, '' said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. Kilduff said if they move the meeting, they could cut back even more production on an emergency basis.
West Texas Intermediate was at $ 51.59 per barrel Friday, after trading as high as $ 65.65 in early January.
OPEC officials had been scheduled to meet in early March with Russia and their other non-OPEC partners to review their production deal, and possibly increase their cutbacks. Now market speculation is focused on another large reduction by producers, who are anxious to steady the market.
On Friday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the group could discuss moving its meeting forward but said it needs several more days to monitor the situation. There was some speculation a new meeting could be as early as the coming week.
`` If you're going to meet early, then you had to do something, '' said Helima Croft, head of global commodities research at RBC. `` I don't think you would call an early meeting just to roll it over. ''
Oil's drop has been stunning as it follows a large reduction in market supply after a Libyan pipeline was shutdown, forcing 800,000 a day off the market. At the same time, OPEC and Russia have been maintaining their agreement to withhold 1.8 million barrels a day.
`` It has completely changed the dynamic. It takes a hatchet to the demand growth outlook for this year, '' said Kilduff. `` There was a hope for the economy, but now it's going out the window. China is the flip of Saudi Arabia. That's the swing demand center, and now the swing demand center is shutting down. '' | business |
Financials sector could be in trouble as this bond rally stretches on | The bond rally stretches on.
The 10-year yield cracked below 1.6% earlier this week as investors rushed into safe haven bonds. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Mark Newton, founder of Newton Advisors, forecasts an even bigger bid for bond prices as investors press pause on recent stock market gains.
`` Near term this [ yield ] breakdown is pretty serious, '' Newton said Thursday on CNBC's `` Trading Nation, '' noting that it began a week ago when the stock market peaked. `` Near term I can see further selling pressure in yields and/or buying of Treasurys thinking that yields pull back and really test those lows that we were seeing back last September. ''
The 10-year yield fell close to the 1.4% mark in September. That had been its lowest level since 2016.
Lower yields could put the most pressure on one S & P 500 sector, Newton warned.
`` This should have an effect on what happens with financials, '' he said. `` There tends to be a pretty good correlation with what yields and the yield curve do with what the financial space does so given it is almost 13% of the S & P, that could represent a pretty significant headwind. ''
Lower yields affect how much interest a lender can charge. Part of the yield curve — the gap between the 10-year and 3-month yields — inverted Friday for the second time this week, sending what many see as a recession signal. Any economic weakness would also impact banks ' performances.
Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, said a broader bond rally could be sending a signal of economic distress on the horizon.
`` What's more concerning is not just that the 10-year has fallen but that the entire long end has fallen with it so the 10-year all the way out to the 30-year which tells a story of sort of concerns around growth. If this were really kind of one isolated incident around fear around the coronavirus you would likely only see the one point moving, '' Sanchez said during the same segment.
The U.S. 30-year yield has fallen to just above 2%. That is its lowest level since October.
`` If you listened to the [ Federal Reserve this week ] they moderated their stance on growth. They went from strong to moderate growth. And that's because you know we are still seeing declining global trade volumes, we're seeing declining business investment, all of these numbers aren't as strong as they should be and most economists are expecting a slowdown, '' said Sanchez.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week. It was the second gathering with no change to the federal funds rate.
Disclaimer | business |
Wuhan coronavirus: Death toll rises to 258 as more countries impose travel restrictions | A day after the World Health Organization ( WHO) declared the virus a global health emergency, Chinese authorities reported 45 deaths, all of them in Hubei, the province at the center of the outbreak of which Wuhan is the capital, bringing the total death toll across the country to 258.
As of Friday, there were more than 10,000 coronavirus cases confirmed in China, authorities said, an increase of over 2,000 from the previous day. That surpasses the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) outbreak that began in southern China, which infected 8,098 people worldwide, killing 774.
More than 20 countries and territories outside of mainland China have confirmed cases of the virus -- spanning Asia, Europe, North America and the Middle East -- as the United Kingdom reported its first two cases on Friday.
On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation suspending the entry of foreign nationals who have traveled in China in the last two weeks and could pose a risk of spreading the virus, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said.
Foreign nationals who are the immediate family of US citizens or permanent residents are exempt. US citizens returning to the United States who have been in China's Hubei province in the two weeks before their return will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine, Azar said.
The decision by the WHO prompted governments to upgrade their own response to the virus, with the US State Department raising its travel advisory for China to it's highest level: Do not travel.
The WHO defines a public health emergency of international concern as `` an extraordinary event '' that constitutes a `` public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease, '' and `` to potentially require a coordinated international response. '' Previous emergencies have included Ebola, Zika and H1N1.
Ghebreyesus, who met this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping, said the WHO `` continues to have confidence in China's capacity to control the outbreak. ''
`` We would have seen many more cases outside China by now -- and probably deaths -- if it were not for the government's efforts, '' he added.
Much of China goes back to work on Monday, after the Lunar New Year holiday was extended in an attempt to rein in the virus. The fear now -- as tens of millions of people travel across the country and cities return to usual business -- is that new self-sustaining epidemic spots will rear up.
Many schools and universities across the country will remain closed for much of next week.
Evacuation and spread
As Wuhan and much of Hubei remains on lockdown in a bid to contain the virus, many countries have begun extracting their citizens from the city.
A charter plane carrying more than 350 South Koreans landed at Gimpo International Airport near Seoul on Friday, following flights organized by the US and Japan to evacuate their citizens. Multiple other governments, including the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are still arranging flights.
Meanwhile, more cases of the virus have been reported worldwide. Singapore confirmed three additional cases Thursday, bringing the total number of confirmed infections in the city to 13.
Health officials said all 13 cases are in a stable condition and `` most are improving. '' They also advised citizens to `` defer all travel to Hubei Province and all non-essential travel to mainland China. ''
The Singapore government said it will distribute four masks each to 1.3 million households in the city from Saturday. Other Asian territories, particularly Hong Kong, have struggled to maintain supply of masks, with many stores running out following an initial rush by residents to stock up.
More than 130 infections with the virus -- but no deaths -- have been reported outside mainland China.
The UK has confirmed its first two cases of Wuhan coronavirus in the northwest of England, according to a statement by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England.
`` We can confirm that two patients in England, who are members of the same family, have tested positive for coronavirus. The patients are receiving specialist NHS ( National Health Service) care, and we are using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus, '' he said.
`` The NHS is extremely well-prepared and used to managing infections and we are already working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had, to prevent further spread, '' he added.
`` We have been preparing for UK cases of novel coronavirus and we have robust infection control measures in place to respond immediately. We are continuing to work closely with the World Health Organization and the international community as the outbreak in China develops to ensure we are ready for all eventualities. ''
Two of China's neighbors have instituted emergency measures to try and stop the virus spreading there. Russia said it was closing its border in the Far East, and limiting rail services from all of China from January 31. Meanwhile, North Korea declared a state of emergency and said it was instituting a `` hygienic and anti-epidemic '' response.
Facing a long quarantine
Much of Hubei has been under effective quarantine for weeks now, with almost every city facing travel restrictions in a province home to nearly 60 million people. Wuhan has been completely locked down, with residents cooped up in their homes and the streets abandoned.
Foreigners being airlifted out of the city are also facing up to two weeks of mandatory or voluntary quarantine once they land in their home countries.
However, this has sparked controversy in some countries, especially in Australia, where a plan to house evacuees in a former detention center for migrants on Christmas Island has generated no small amount of negative publicity.
Public broadcaster ABC spoke to some Australians in Wuhan who said they would rather remain in the city than face two weeks on what has been described by some opposition lawmakers as a `` leper camp, '' even as Canberra defended its decision as the only place capable of quarantining hundreds of people.
At March Air Reserve Base in Southern California, where US evacuees were flown earlier this week, one man said he was willing to remain under quarantine `` as long as I need. ''
Jarred Evans said that the US Centers for Disease Control told evacuees that the initial 72-hour quarantine that was suggested `` is really not enough time, but you know, they're not obligated to keep us here. ''
`` You're not obligated to leave ( when the 72 hours are up), so they're saying that the best thing for you, your people, your family and the community is to stay as long as possible, '' Evans said.
After flying out of near-freezing temperatures in Wuhan, Evans said he and the other passengers were spending time outdoors enjoying the sunny, 22 degrees Celsius ( 72F) weather.
`` We're all still taking major precautions. So it's not like we're around here hugging each other and shaking hands and things like that, '' Evans said. `` We're wearing our masks... But honestly, you know, everyone is enjoying themselves because what we experienced, what we 've seen, is very serious, you know, people are dying. So when you see that and think about things like that, try to take as much appreciation of what is in front of you. ''
What happens next?
Speaking on Friday, China's Foreign Ministry said the country had full `` confidence and capability '' in winning the fight against the virus.
`` Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the Chinese government has been taking the most comprehensive and rigorous prevention and control measures with a high sense of responsibility for people's health, '' said ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying in a statement. `` Many of these measures go well beyond the requirements of the International Health Regulations. We have full confidence and capability to win this fight against the epidemic. ''
China has taken major measures to try and contain the epidemic, locking much of Hubei down, partially closing the border with Hong Kong and extending the Lunar New Year holiday, all of which could have a severe drain on the country's economy, already vulnerable due to the US-China trade war.
With most people due to go back to work on Monday, it remains unclear whether more measures will be announced, and if not, how this will influence the spread of the virus.
Health experts previously estimated that the number of cases could be far higher than currently confirmed. Researchers at Imperial College London have estimated that at least 4,000 people were infected in Wuhan by January 18, almost a week before the lockdown began. Their model suggests a low national figure of 20,000 infections by the end of the month, potentially as high as 100,000.
Researchers in Hong Kong estimate there could be 75,815 people in Wuhan infected with coronavirus as of January 25, according to a paper published Friday in The Lancet.
UPDATE: This story has been updated to reflect the number of confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus outside mainland China. | business |
UK confirms two cases of coronavirus | Two patients from the same family in England have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to the country's chief medical officer.
In a statement Friday, England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the patients were now in the care of the country's National Health Service ( NHS). `` The patients are receiving specialist NHS care, and we are using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus, '' he said.
Whitty added that his team was `` working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had, '' in order to prevent further spread.
No information was given on where the patients were living or their nationality, although a reporter for the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper tweeted that they are being treated at Newcastle's infectious disease unit in the north east of England.
The statement said the NHS in the United Kingdom had been preparing for U.K. cases of the new coronavirus strain and had put in place measures to respond. `` We are continuing to work closely with the World Health Organization and the international community as the outbreak in China develops to ensure we are ready for all eventualities, '' the statement added.
The four chief medical officers for the U.K. have raised the risk level regarding the coronavirus from `` low '' to `` moderate. ''
`` This does not mean we think the risk to individuals in the U.K. has changed at this stage, but that government should plan for all eventualities, '' they said in a statement Thursday.
Current U.K. government advice is that anyone coming back from China with respiratory symptoms should self isolate for 14 days while anyone coming back from the Wuhan area should do the same whether they have symptoms or not.
Following the announcement, Europe's bluechip Stoxx 600 shed its morning gains to sit around 0.1% lower. Shortly before 10 a.m. London time, the FTSE 100 was lower by around 0.5%.
At the moment a special quarantine unit for returning U.K. visitors from the Hubei province in China is being set up in the north west of England. On Friday morning, Chinese officials reported that the country had 9,692 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 213 deaths. | business |
Coronavirus: More airlines suspend flights to and from China | A growing number of airlines have suspended flights in and out of China Friday as seat cancellations rise and carriers try to help prevent the global spread of the coronavirus.
On Friday, Vietnam's VietJet said it would temporarily cancel all flights to and from the country from Saturday. Singapore Airlines said it would reduce capacity on some of its routes to mainland China in February, but ruled out a full halt to its schedule.
Air New Zealand has now said it will reduce services to four a week rather that its current daily flights. New Zealand's economy is particularly dependent on the fortunes of China, perhaps explaining the relatively muted change by the national carrier. New Zealand has seen its currency shed 2% against the U.S. dollar this week on coronavirus fears.
Chinese carrier Shanghai Airlines said Friday it would suspend its flights to Hungary from the cities of Chengdu and Xi'an for almost two months until March 26. Other flights to Asian destinations remain operational.
African airlines RwandAir and Kenya Airways fully suspended all flights to China on Friday, giving no indication when they would resume.
U.S. airlines have been slightly quicker to amend schedules. Delta said Wednesday it was halving its China flights to 21 per week until at least the end of March while American Airlines, the largest U.S. carrier, is to suspend all its LA flights to Beijing and Shanghai from February 9 until March 27.
United, who had already suspended 24 flights to Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai next week, has now said it will extend that to 332 return flights until the end of March.
Meanwhile, White House officials have told U.S. airlines that the administration is considering suspending flights from China to the U.S., people familiar with the matter said earlier this week.
On Thursday, British Airways took perhaps the firmest decision from the big carriers, cancelling all flights to mainland China for a month. On the same day Air France took a similar decision but restricted its change until February 9.
Other airlines to suspend flights to China include Air India, Air Seoul, Air Tanzania, Cathay Pacific, Egyptair, El Al, Finnair, Lion Air, Royal Air Maroc, SAS, Turkish Airlines and Virgin Atlantic. | business |
Germany expects coronavirus vaccine within months | - Germany's research minister said on Friday she expected a vaccine for coronavirus to be developed within months.
`` If we want to contain this illness then it is good if we have a vaccine in a relatively short time and we assume this will be in a few months, '' said Research Minister Anja Karliczek.
She made the announcement after biopharmaceutical company CureVac AG and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations ( CEPI) said they were working together to develop a vaccine against the virus, first detected in China in December. ( Reporting by Michelle Martin Editing by Joseph Nasr) | business |
Markets are putting pressure on the Federal Reserve for at least one rate cut | Federal Reserve officials this week affirmed their commitment to staying put on interest rates for the time being, but markets have other ideas.
The fed funds futures market, where traders go to bet on the central bank's policy direction, is pricing in about a 58% chance of a rate cut by June, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Traders are even making room for two cuts, assigning a nearly 60% chance of another move lower in December.
Expectations for an easing have accelerated as the coronavirus has begun to spread globally and threatens to dent China's already decelerating growth. Stocks have surrendered their January gains and bonds are again flashing a recession signal through an inverted yield curve.
Markets, then, might be bracing against the chance of a contagion both medically and economically.
`` The Fed won't divorce itself from the human aspect of this. But it will be about growth and whether or not this affects growth, '' said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. `` China is the second-largest economy in the world. If demand in China slows, it's going to affect some of the larger trading partners. It won't just be the U.S. That could stymie attempts of monetary and fiscal stimulus to bolster global growth. ''
Central bankers tend to look through events like natural disasters and the spread of infectious disease as one-off events unlikely to figure into the longer-term picture and thus move interest rates.
But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did acknowledge the coronoavirus this week, and it's like to come up once officials resume making position speeches now that the January meeting is past.
`` The situation is really in its early stages and it's very uncertain about how far it will spread and what the macroeconomic effects will be in China and its immediate trading partners and neighbors and around the world, '' Powell said at his post-meeting news conference Wednesday. `` So in light of that uncertainty, I 'm not going to speculate about it at this point. I would just tell you that, of course, we are very carefully monitoring the situation. ''
He added that future policy decisions are dependent on `` the potential ramifications for the U.S. economy and for the achievement of our dual mandate '' of full employment and price stability.
The Fed already is in an accommodative posture coming off a 2019 where it cuts its benchmark borrowing rate three times by a total of 75 basis points. A statement the policymakers released upped the central bank's commitment to boosting the inflation rate to 2%, which it considers healthy for a growing economy.
However, some officials have expressed unease with having rates so close to zero and the limited room that would provide in an economic downturn.
So a cut from here likely wouldn't come unless the coronavirus presented a longer-term threat to global and U.S. growth.
`` If you're sitting at the Fed, you're obviously worried about these global risks. But you kind of just sit and wait, '' said Jospeh LaVorgana, chief Americas economist at Natixis. `` I 'd be more comfortable with them keeping the accommodation going through the balance sheet '' expansion rather than rate cuts.
Markets, though, are clearly nervous.
Major averages Friday suffered through their worst day since October as the Dow Jones Industrial Average had shed more than 500 points heading into the last hour of trading. The Fed doesn't directly respond to market tumult, but is no doubt watching what happens.
`` What this coronavirus has done now is allow the market to be that much more worried about an inflection in the economy, '' LaVorgna said. `` The smart move is the Fed should continue to expand the balance sheet and continue to talk dovish, and then take a wait and see attitude. '' | business |
New report on first US case of novel coronavirus details mild symptoms followed by pneumonia | In the new report, doctors describe how the man progressed from initially mild, nonspecific symptoms to pneumonia on the ninth day of his illness.
The patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.
Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.
Doctors initially found nothing abnormal on chest X-rays, but sent swabs to the CDC because of his recent travel to Wuhan. By the following day, on January 20, they confirmed the man had the novel coronavirus.
At that point, the man was admitted to Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington, and placed in an airborne-isolation unit. Throughout his illness, he experienced a range of symptoms including fever, cough, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and runny nose.
But it wasn't until his fifth day in the hospital -- day nine of his illness -- that doctors saw signs of pneumonia on his chest X-ray, in the lower lobe of his left lung. On the following day, his chest X-ray showed `` stable streaky opacities in the lung bases... indicating likely atypical pneumonia. ''
On his eighth day in the hospital, his condition improved. As of January 30, he no longer had a fever, and his symptoms were gone except for his cough, which was `` decreasing in severity, '' the doctors wrote. Officials are monitoring close contacts in the US but have not found evidence he transmitted the virus to anyone else.
The authors say the case underscores the importance of close collaboration between doctors, local and federal health authorities, and the quick dissemination of information throughout the medical community on how to care for patients like him. But it also illustrates what we don't know, the authors say, including how quickly and easily the virus spreads and the `` full spectrum of clinical illness '' it causes.
Since the Washington case, six other confirmed cases have emerged in the United States: one in Arizona, three in California and two in Illinois. The second case in Illinois is also the first confirmed case of person-to-person transmission of the virus in the United States.
| business |
US consumer spending rises steadily, inflation remains tame | U.S. consumer spending rose steadily in December, but tepid income gains pointed to moderate consumption growth this year, which together with slumping business investment likely set the economy on a slower growth path this year.
While the report on Friday from the Commerce Department also showed monthly inflation picking up last month, price pressures remained muted. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and could keep monetary policy on hold at least through 2020.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.3% last month as households spent more on health care after an unrevised 0.4% rise in November. Last month's increase in consumer spending was in line with economists ' expectations. For all of 2019, consumer spending increased 4.0% after advancing 5.2% in 2018.
The data was included in the gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter, which was published on Thursday. The government reported that growth in consumer spending slowed to a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after expanding at a brisk 3.2% pace in the July-September period.
The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the final three months of 2019, matching the third quarter's pace.
Though growth will likely slow this year, with business investment mired in weakness, a recession is not expected in the near term as the economy draws support from the Fed's three rate cuts last year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday that he expected `` moderate economic growth to continue '' but also acknowledged some risks, including the recent coronavirus outbreak in China.
Powell said also said `` while low and stable inflation is certainly a good thing, '' persistently low price pressures could `` lead longer-term inflation expectations to drift down. ''
U.S. stock index futures were trading lower and the dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies. Prices of U.S. Treasuries were mostly trading higher.
Consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures ( PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month, the biggest gain since April. The PCE price index was driven by a 1.5% surge in the cost of energy goods and services prices. Food prices were unchanged.
The PCE price index edged up 0.1% in November. In the 12 months through December, the PCE price index increased 1.6%, the biggest gain in a year, after climbing 1.4% in the 12 months through November.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% for the previous four months. That lifted the annual increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6% in December from 1.5% in November.
The core PCE index is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. It missed the U.S. central bank's 2% target every month in 2019.
Benign inflation was underscored by a separate report on Friday from the Labor Department showing the Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7% last quarter after a similar gain in the third quarter.
That lowered the year-on-year rate of gain in the ECI to 2.7%. Labor costs rose 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter. The ECI is widely viewed by policymakers and economists as one of the better measures of labor market slack. It is also considered a better predictor of core inflation.
Labor costs peaked in the final quarter of 2018 as a tightening labor market pushed up wage growth. The pace of increases has since slowed in tandem with wages.
When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending nudged up 0.1% in December after rising 0.3% in the prior month. That likely sets a lower base for consumer spending in the first quarter.
Personal income gained 0.2% last month after an increase of 0.4% in November. There was a $ 36.2 billion decrease in farm proprietors ' income, reflecting a drop in subsidy payments to farmers caught in the 18-month U.S.-China trade war. Income increased 4.5% in 2019 after surging 5.6% in 2018.
Wages increased 0.3% in December after rising 0.4% in the prior month. With income growth lagging consumer spending, savings fell to $ 1.28 trillion last month from $ 1.30 trillion in November. | business |
Facebook and Google are fighting coronavirus misinformation | Google and Facebook are attempting to stay ahead of coronavirus misinformation and to provide users with helpful, accurate resources. Today, Facebook announced plans to flag and remove false information, and Google has created an SOS Alert for coronavirus searches.
Facebook's third-party fact-checkers are reviewing content related to the virus, now deemed a public health emergency by the World Health Organization. When the fact-checkers rate something as false, Facebook will limit its spread and send a notification to people who have shared or are attempting to share that content. Facebook is also removing content that has been flagged by global health organizations for containing false statements or conspiracy theories -- like fake cures such as drinking bleach. It will restrict or block hashtags used to spread misinformation on Instagram, too.
Google's SOS Alert reorganizes Search results to show top news stories, any relevant local results, helpful information from trusted organizations and verified safety tips. The SOS Alert is one of Google's established crisis alert products, and like Facebook's efforts, it's meant to help users access information they can trust quickly and safely.
Facebook is also offering free ad credits to help organizations run coronavirus education campaigns in affected regions, and the company is sharing aggregated and anonymized mobility data and population density maps with researchers at Harvard University's School of Public Health and National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, so that they can better forecast the spread of the virus. | tech |
Russia obtains ease on C.Africa arms embargo at UN Security Council | Hi, what are you looking for?
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The UN Security Council on Friday approved a slight relaxation of the arms embargo on the Central African Republic, an issue that has been a source of friction between France and Russia.
A resolution drafted by France that extends the embargo by only six months to July 31 was approved by 13 votes with Russia and China abstaining.
It allows the CAR to acquire military vehicles mounted with up to 14.5mm weapons, provided the United Nations is notified ahead of time.
According to the diplomats, negotiations on the draft were held amid sharp tensions between France and Russia.
A former colonial power, France did not want any easing of the embargo in light of conditions in the country, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The European and African members of the council supported France's draft, but Russia, backed by China, supported Bangui's longstanding call for the embargo to be completely lifted.
Moscow this week proposed a concurrent resolution to France's. However, a compromise was worked out on Thursday that avoided a vote on two resolutions, and the risk that the embargo would be lifted entirely.
France's deputy representative to the United Nations, Anne Gueguen, said she `` profoundly '' regretted that the resolution was not unanimously adopted.
She said the Security Council is receptive to the CAR authorities but stressed the need for a `` responsible approach. ''
- Six month extension -
Her Russian counterpart, Dmitry Polyanskiy, complained that none of Moscow's arguments had been taken into account, and he warned these would be raised again in July, indicating the Security Council fight over the embargo would resume in six months.
`` We wanted a greater easing of the arms embargo, '' he said, arguing that while it was useful initially it had become an obstacle to re-equipping the military and security forces.
Niger's ambassador Abdou Abarry, speaking also on behalf of South Africa and Tunisia, said the resolution represented a response to the CAR's legitimate demand to move towards the lifting of the arms embargo.
He said the easing of the embargo would help the CAR's government to retake control of the entire country.
The United States noted that Bangui had made no requests for exemptions to the embargo since September, even though the possibility was open to it.
The latest relaxation of the embargo follows a Security Council decision in September 2019 to allow delivery of individual weapons of up to 14.5mm in caliber to the CAR security forces, which was the first time an easing occurred.
The embargo has been in place since 2013, when the CAR was rocked by civil war following the fall of president Francois Bozize.
But the government has long demanded that it be lifted altogether, contending that armed groups continue to control vast areas of the country and can easily resupply their forces through contraband, putting Bangui at a disadvantage.
Since 2017, exceptions to the embargo have been accorded by the United Nations on a case by case basis, including when Russia and France gave arms to the CAR.
The UN Security Council on Friday approved a slight relaxation of the arms embargo on the Central African Republic, an issue that has been a source of friction between France and Russia.
A resolution drafted by France that extends the embargo by only six months to July 31 was approved by 13 votes with Russia and China abstaining.
It allows the CAR to acquire military vehicles mounted with up to 14.5mm weapons, provided the United Nations is notified ahead of time.
According to the diplomats, negotiations on the draft were held amid sharp tensions between France and Russia.
A former colonial power, France did not want any easing of the embargo in light of conditions in the country, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The European and African members of the council supported France’ s draft, but Russia, backed by China, supported Bangui’ s longstanding call for the embargo to be completely lifted.
Moscow this week proposed a concurrent resolution to France’ s. However, a compromise was worked out on Thursday that avoided a vote on two resolutions, and the risk that the embargo would be lifted entirely.
France’ s deputy representative to the United Nations, Anne Gueguen, said she “ profoundly ” regretted that the resolution was not unanimously adopted.
She said the Security Council is receptive to the CAR authorities but stressed the need for a “ responsible approach. ”
– Six month extension –
Her Russian counterpart, Dmitry Polyanskiy, complained that none of Moscow’ s arguments had been taken into account, and he warned these would be raised again in July, indicating the Security Council fight over the embargo would resume in six months.
“ We wanted a greater easing of the arms embargo, ” he said, arguing that while it was useful initially it had become an obstacle to re-equipping the military and security forces.
Niger’ s ambassador Abdou Abarry, speaking also on behalf of South Africa and Tunisia, said the resolution represented a response to the CAR’ s legitimate demand to move towards the lifting of the arms embargo.
He said the easing of the embargo would help the CAR’ s government to retake control of the entire country.
The United States noted that Bangui had made no requests for exemptions to the embargo since September, even though the possibility was open to it.
The latest relaxation of the embargo follows a Security Council decision in September 2019 to allow delivery of individual weapons of up to 14.5mm in caliber to the CAR security forces, which was the first time an easing occurred.
The embargo has been in place since 2013, when the CAR was rocked by civil war following the fall of president Francois Bozize.
But the government has long demanded that it be lifted altogether, contending that armed groups continue to control vast areas of the country and can easily resupply their forces through contraband, putting Bangui at a disadvantage.
Since 2017, exceptions to the embargo have been accorded by the United Nations on a case by case basis, including when Russia and France gave arms to the CAR.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
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Release contaminated Fukushima water into sea: Japan panel | Hi, what are you looking for?
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Radioactive water from the stricken nuclear plant in Fukushima should be released into the ocean or vaporised into the air, an expert panel advised the Japanese government on Friday.
The proposal is non-binding and sets no deadline for the government to decide or carry out procedures to deal with the water.
The panel has been weighing the issue for more than three years, but a decision is becoming urgent as space at the site to store the water is running out.
The TEPCO-operated nuclear plant suffered a meltdown in 2011 after it was hit by an earthquake-triggered tsunami.
The radioactive water comes from several different sources -- including water used for cooling at the plant, and groundwater and rain that seeps into the plant daily -- and is put through an extensive filtration process.
The panel convened by the industry ministry said releasing the water into the sea or into the air using vaporisation are `` realistic options. ''
Discarding the water into the sea `` can be done with certainty, '' they added, because the method is also used at normal nuclear reactors.
The panel only has an advisory role, and in their proposal said they hope the government `` will make a decision with a sense of responsibility and determination ''.
The government is expected to carry out consultations with local authorities and fishermen, many of whom fiercely oppose putting the water into the sea.
It is unclear when any decision will be made, though no ruling on the sensitive issue is expected before Tokyo hosts the Olympics this summer.
The contaminated water should contain only tritium after being processed by the plant's filtration system. Around 80 percent of it needs to be reprocessed before it could potentially be released.
Experts say tritium is only harmful to humans in very large doses and the International Atomic Energy Agency argues that properly filtered water could be diluted with seawater and then safely released into the ocean without causing environmental problems.
But those arguments have not convinced activists as well as some local residents, including fishermen and farmers who fear the release will imperil their livelihoods.
The treated water is currently kept in a thousand huge tanks at the Fukushima Daiichi site.
Plant operator TEPCO is building more tanks but all will be full by the summer of 2022.
Radioactive water from the stricken nuclear plant in Fukushima should be released into the ocean or vaporised into the air, an expert panel advised the Japanese government on Friday.
The proposal is non-binding and sets no deadline for the government to decide or carry out procedures to deal with the water.
The panel has been weighing the issue for more than three years, but a decision is becoming urgent as space at the site to store the water is running out.
The TEPCO-operated nuclear plant suffered a meltdown in 2011 after it was hit by an earthquake-triggered tsunami.
The radioactive water comes from several different sources — including water used for cooling at the plant, and groundwater and rain that seeps into the plant daily — and is put through an extensive filtration process.
The panel convened by the industry ministry said releasing the water into the sea or into the air using vaporisation are “ realistic options. ”
Discarding the water into the sea “ can be done with certainty, ” they added, because the method is also used at normal nuclear reactors.
The panel only has an advisory role, and in their proposal said they hope the government “ will make a decision with a sense of responsibility and determination ”.
The government is expected to carry out consultations with local authorities and fishermen, many of whom fiercely oppose putting the water into the sea.
It is unclear when any decision will be made, though no ruling on the sensitive issue is expected before Tokyo hosts the Olympics this summer.
The contaminated water should contain only tritium after being processed by the plant’ s filtration system. Around 80 percent of it needs to be reprocessed before it could potentially be released.
Experts say tritium is only harmful to humans in very large doses and the International Atomic Energy Agency argues that properly filtered water could be diluted with seawater and then safely released into the ocean without causing environmental problems.
But those arguments have not convinced activists as well as some local residents, including fishermen and farmers who fear the release will imperil their livelihoods.
The treated water is currently kept in a thousand huge tanks at the Fukushima Daiichi site.
Plant operator TEPCO is building more tanks but all will be full by the summer of 2022.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
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COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2021 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
Hunt begins for 'close contacts ' of the two UK coronavirus cases | Public Health England ( PHE) is urgently trying to trace anyone who came into contact with the two people who have tested positive for the coronavirus in the UK.
England’ s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said: “ We can confirm that two patients in England, who are members of the same family, have tested positive. The patients are receiving specialist NHS care and we are using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus. ”
It is understood that the pair travelled to the UK from China recently and are believed to be Chinese nationals. They are undergoing treatment at the specialist Airborne High Consequence Infectious Diseases Centre in Newcastle’ s Royal Victoria Infirmary.
Cases in the UK have long been expected. The virus has already spread to 22 other countries outside China.
The pair had been at the StayCity apartment hotel in York when they became ill. A StayCity spokesman said: “ We have been advised by Public Health England that there is minimal ongoing risk of infection to either guests or staff, and as such our York property remains open for business. The apartment concerned will undergo a thorough environmental clean and disinfection by a specialist contractor. ”
Public Health England ( PHE) is urgently trying to trace anyone who came into contact with the two people. It said steps would be taken to reduce the risk to the public and it was “ identifying the areas where there is deemed to be a risk ”.
Professor Sharon Peacock, director of the National Infection Service at PHE, said: “ Public Health England is contacting people who had close contact with the confirmed cases. Close contacts will be given health advice about symptoms and emergency contact details to use if they become unwell in the 14 days after contact with the confirmed cases. ”
Prof Peacock previously said that while staff are working to trace people who have been in contact with the pair, they do not currently have any idea of how high that number might be.
The PHE definition of close contact is being within two metres of the infected person for 15 minutes.
Guests were continuing to check in for weekend breaks in York on Friday. Outside the hotel, two guests told the Guardian that as recently as Friday morning they had been told by reception staff that reports that two tourists had been taken ill from their apartment on Wednesday were “ lies ”.
“ This morning they said it was a lie and not to listen to it, ” said Andy Neale, 21, who was staying at StayCity for the night with his girlfriend. “ It’ s not ideal. They should’ ve taken some precaution. ”
He said the incident had marred the couple’ s getaway. “ My girlfriend is stressing out, she’ s using hand wipes on everything. ”
A family who were staying in the hotel on a visit from Asia to see their daughter, who is a student in York, said they had been told the reports of cases were “ false information ”.
The PHE supported the decision not to close the hotel. It said: “ The design of the accommodation means that there is minimal interaction between guests and, following a risk assessment by our experts, closing the accommodation was not necessary. Appropriate infection and prevention control measures are being implemented. ”
Earlier, Whitty said: “ The NHS is extremely well prepared and used to managing infections, and we are already working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had to prevent further spread.
“ We have been preparing for UK cases of novel coronavirus and we have robust infection control measures in place to respond immediately. We are continuing to work closely with the World Health Organization and the international community as the outbreak in China develops to ensure we are ready for all eventualities. ”
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
The chief medical officers for the four countries of the UK raised the risk level from low to moderate on Thursday evening in the wake of the WHO declaring coronavirus to be an international emergency. The UK has been on high alert for days, with 177 people tested for the virus, of whom 175 proved negative.
In recent days ambulance workers and paramedics have been seen in protective suits in a number of places. As well as the York incident, a man was taken away from student accommodation in London. The University of Bristol said one person admitted to hospital with symptoms as a precaution had been discharged after being cleared of coronavirus.
The UK had comprehensive plans in place for dealing with the arrival of the Wuhan coronavirus. It also has a good track record. Several cases of Mers – Middle East respiratory syndrome, which is also caused by a coronavirus – have been diagnosed in the past in travellers and in two healthcare workers who were infected by patients before anyone realised they had the virus. All were nursed in hospital infectious disease units and recovered.
Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “ The report of the first two cases diagnosed positive for 2019-nCoV in the UK is not surprising and was almost inevitable. The chief medical officer’ s statement gives no information on where these two members of the same family acquired their infection. The two cases are members of the same family but no information has been released about whether both cases will have been infected simultaneously or whether one would have passed the infection to the other.
“ The NHS is well able to nurse people with this novel coronavirus as it has successfully and safely managed a number of cases of both Sars and Mers in the past. With the information available it is not possible to judge what risk if any there may be of spread within the community. ” | general |
Britons on evacuation flight from Wuhan tell of relief and confusion | Britons who were on board the evacuation flight from Wuhan have spoken of the confusion surrounding their departure, with some still having to leave loved ones behind.
The flight, carrying 87 Britons and 27 foreign nationals from the coronavirus-hit Chinese city, touched down at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire at about 1.30pm and passengers were transferred by coach to Arrowe Park hospital in Wirral, where they will be quarantined for two weeks.
The convoy of six coaches arrived shortly after 7.15pm on Friday. The vehicles were led by a police escort to the rear of the hospital and on to a side road leading to the accommodation block. A medic wearing a white specialist suit was sitting next to the driver of each vehicle.
The coach company, Horseman Coaches, said the vehicles used for the journey would be “ deep-cleaned ” and that the drivers who agreed to take the job will be given paid leave to “ remain at home for the next 10 days ”.
One of those aboard the flight was Ben Williams, who was in Wuhan for his wedding and honeymoon, and was forced to leave his wife behind.
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 6 April, more than 1.25m people have been infected in more than 180 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 69,500 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 15,800 fatalities, and there have been over 12,600 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 335,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 264,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
He told the BBC he found out only at the last minute that she would be allowed on the flight after a U-turn by Chinese authorities, who had initially said their citizens and dual nationals would not be allowed on. However, delays and miscommunications between embassies meant none of her paperwork was ready.
Williams said: “ By the time we got out the door, it was very much a close call to get to the meeting point to get on this flight, and sadly, my wife has nothing prepared and it wasn’ t right for her to enter the UK with essentially nothing. ” He said he hoped to be reunited with his wife in a few months.
Matt Raw also made the flight at short notice, after initially being told that his Chinese wife, Ying, who has a visitor visa for the UK, would not be allowed to travel.
When the Chinese authorities decided to ease the restrictions, Raw was able to make the flight with his wife and 75-year-old mother, Hazel.
He said the flight was like any normal plane journey, and passengers were served chicken tikka masala. In video footage taken on the flight, he said: “ It’ s maybe not the best quality aeroplane food that I’ ve had, but certainly this is probably one of the best meals of my life – we’ re on our way home.
“ There’ s no beer on board. Luckily, I did see one shop in the airport that was open and I pretty much emptied the fridge of beer, so this will do us nicely. ”
On Instagram, Patrick Graham showed pictures of officials in hazmat suits helping passengers check in at Wuhan airport. “ Thank you, Wamos Air staff, for getting us home … They also have to go into a period of quarantine just for bringing us home! ” one post said.
James Convey told Sky News the atmosphere among passengers was positive: “ I think everyone was relieved to get out of China. There were a lot of obstacles for people to get on that plane … and we’ re all very relieved to be back in the UK.
“ It was a very tight, tight turnaround so we had an hour and a half to get to Wuhan airport. All the transport was locked down and the roads were closed, but my mother-in-law managed to call in a few favours and got someone to take us to the airport, and amazingly, we did get there on time. I think there was probably a lot of people who didn’ t get there on time and possibly missed the flight. ”
It was originally estimated that 150 Britons would be on the flight, but poor communication and the last-minute U-turn by China meant many did not make it.
One of those was Anthony May-Smith, 26, from Lichfield, Staffordshire, who travelled to Wuhan a couple of weeks ago to visit his girlfriend, Yenny. Although the flight was delayed to allow as many people to make it to the airport on time, May-Smith was given two hours’ notice, and had no way of getting there.
“ It was pretty much impossible to get there. I’ ve been trying [ to find a way ] for the last few days leading up to the flight, but just couldn’ t find anything. ”
He said the Foreign and Commonwealth Office ( FCO) had been “ the complete opposite of helpful ” throughout the evacuation process, and offered no support or guidance on how to get to the airport. “ They just said: ‘ We’ re sorry that you can’ t make it.’ ”
He has been told by the FCO that a flight organised by the French is leaving on Sunday and he may be able to get a seat on that, although he’ s “ not holding his breath ”.
Michael Gove told Sky News the government would send another plane to Wuhan to evacuate British nationals if needed. | general |
University apologizes for saying xenophobia is 'common reaction ' to coronavirus spread | The University of California, Berkeley apologized on Thursday evening for an Instagram posting that listed xenophobia and “ fears about interacting with those who might be from Asia ” as a common reaction to the spread of coronavirus.
The post has since been deleted following an outcry online.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
The image, uploaded to the university’ s heath services account, sought to explain how to “ manage fears and anxiety ” about the spread of the highly contagious illness now listed by the World Health Organization as a global public health emergency.
Among the expected reactions listed, which included “ anxiety, worry, panic ” the posting described: “ Xenophobia: fears about interacting with those who might be from Asia and guilt about these feelings ”.
Confused and honestly very angry about this Instagram post from an official @ UCBerkeley Instagram account.When is xenophobia ever a “ normal reaction ”? pic.twitter.com/hH4AgQKluM
“ The post has been taken down and we regret any misunderstanding it may have caused, ” Roqua Montez, executive director of communications and media relations at Berkeley, told CBS News.
Students and alumni had slammed the image on social media, pointing to the fact that the campus has a large Asian-American student population.
The US state department has now warned Americans to avoid all travel to China due to the rapid spread of the disease, which has claimed over 200 lives in China and infected over 9,700 people. Six people have now been confirmed with the disease in the US, as the UK confirmed its first two coronavirus on Friday. | general |
Outbreaks of xenophobia in west as coronavirus spreads | Chinese people in western countries where there have been cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have said they have been the target of racist abuse as paranoia mounts over the outbreak.
In Italy, the European country with the highest annual number of Chinese tourists, the confirmation of two confirmed cases – a couple who arrived in Milan from Wuhan on 23 January on a lunar new year holiday – coincided with incidents of xenophobia and calls to avoid Chinese restaurants and shops.
Roberto Giuliani, the director of the Santa Cecilia Conservatory in Rome, one of the oldest music institutes in the world, was criticised by colleagues on Wednesday after telling students from China, Japan and South Korea not to come to class until after a doctor had visited their homes to ensure they have not contracted the virus.
La Repubblica published a photograph on its website showing a cafe near the Trevi fountain in Rome with a sign outside saying “ all people coming from China ” were barred from entering.
More than 300,000 Chinese people live in Italy and 5 million visited in 2018.
“ Unfortunately, one of the inevitable impacts of this illness is xenophobia, ” Marco Wong, a local councillor in the Tuscan town of Prato, home to a large Chinese population, told the Guardian.
“ Parents aren’ t sending their children to school if there are Chinese classmates and people are writing on the internet not to go to Chinese shops and restaurants. There is also a lot of fake news spreading – for example, an audio of an Italian guy claiming that he is in Wuhan and that he knows of a secret laboratory where this virus was created. ”
Fears over the coronavirus have affected Chinese populations in other countries, too. On Wednesday, the mayor of Toronto condemned racism against Chinese-Canadians, and there have also been reports of anti-Asian racism in the UK.
In France, Chinese residents have been sharing their experiences using the hashtag # JeNeSuisPasUnVirus ( I am not a virus). One young woman calling herself Forky wrote on Twitter: “ Not all Asians are Chinese. Not all Chinese were born in China and not all have been there. An Asian who coughs doesn’ t have the # coronavirus. Insulting an Asian because of the virus is like insulting a Muslim because of the bombings. ”
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 6 April, more than 1.25m people have been infected in more than 180 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 69,500 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 15,800 fatalities, and there have been over 12,600 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 335,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 264,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
There has been particular criticism of a front-page headline on the Courrier Picard, a local newspaper: “ Alerte Jaune ” ( Yellow alert).
One man told France TV he had been approached while buying vegetables in a supermarket in Strasbourg by a woman who demanded what nationality he was and “ if I had the virus ”. He added: “ I wouldn’ t say what happened was racist, but it was a strong prejudice. ”
Sacha-Lin Jung, a representative of the Association of Chinese Residents in France, told BFMTV: “ People are refusing to be served by Asian people in shops … a woman was thrown off a train because she was Asian and so it was obvious she was carrying the virus. This adds to the racism and stereotypes about the Chinese that already exist. ”
On Friday, Italy declared a state of emergency that will be in place for six months. It will spend an initial €5m on trying to prevent the spread of the virus.
Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’ s far-right League, seized on the panic to plug his anti-immigration message and attack rivals in government. “ Every day dozens of flights arrive in Italy from China: we need checks, checks and more checks, ” he said.
Other episodes reported in Italian media include two Chinese tourists being spat at by a group of children in Venice, and three Chinese tourists being insulted in a restaurant in Turin.
One tourist was reportedly prevented from entering Pompeii’ s archaeological park, another was insulted on a train, and a Chinese boy playing in a football match near Milan was told by an opponent: “ I hope you get the virus too. ”
There have been long queues in chemists across the country to purchase face masks. Roberta Siliquini, a former president of Italy’ s higher health council, told the Guardian the paranoia was unsurprising even if it went “ beyond logical sense ”.
“ In Italy, we have a strange relationship with immigration but also with health aspects – it’ s a country in which people don’ t want to be vaccinated against measles but they are scared of a Chinese person standing 50 metres away, ” she said. “ And while it is very possible that we could import cases of this virus, we have one of the most efficient control systems in the world. ”
Tests carried out on two Chinese tourists onboard a cruise ship in the port city of Civitavecchia were negative, the cruise company, Costa Crociere, said in a statement.
• This article was amended on 31 January 2020 because an earlier version understated the number of Chinese people living in Italy. That figure is more than 300,000, not more than 30,000 as an earlier version said. | general |
JGBs mostly firm on coronavirus fears, curve steepens | - Short- to medium-term Japanese government bond prices gained on Friday as concerns about a widening outbreak of the coronavirus that originated in China kept their safe-haven allure.
But longer-dated bonds gave in to profit-taking as domestic stock prices rebounded, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve.
Benchmark 10-year JGB futures rose 0.09 point to 152.86 while the yield on the benchmark 10-year cash JGBs fell 0.5 basis point to minus 0.065%, the lowest level in almost two months.
The five-year JGB yield fell 1 basis point to minus 0.165%, also hitting a two-month low, while the two-year yield fell 1 basis point to minus 0.160%.
Short-term paper was also helped by firm results of the two-year JGB auction on Thursday.
On the other hand, long-dated bonds stepped back from recent rallies as stock prices bounced back on strong earnings from some Japanese companies.
The 20-year JGB yield rose 0.5 basis point to 0.230%, while the 30-year JGB yield rose 1 basis point to 0.365%.
However, on a monthly basis, the 20-year yield posted its first fall in five months. ( Reporting by Tokyo Markets Team; Editing by Aditya Soni) | business |
Euronav: Transcript Q4 2019 earnings call | 1/31/2020
Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Transcripts | Services
Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Jan. 30, 2020 1:50 PM ET2 comments | 1 Like by: SA Transcripts
Earning Call Audio
Subscribers Only
0:00 / 1:06:37
Euronav NV ( NYSE: EURN) Q4 2019 Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2020 8:00 AM
ET
Company Participants
Brian Gallagher - Head, IR
Hugo De Stoop - CEO
Lieve Logghe - CFO
Rustin Edwards - Head, Fuel Procurement
Conference Call Participants
Randy Giveans - Jefferies LLC
Michael Webber - Webber Research Advisory
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Sean Morgan - Evercore
James Monigan - Citi
Ben Nolan - Stifel
Amit Mehrotra - Deutsche Bank
Omar Nokta - Clarksons
Espen Landmark - Fearnley
Manny Garcia - Anchorage Capital
Operator
Hello and welcome to the Euronav Q4 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [ Operator Instructions ]. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [ Operator Instructions ]. Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Head of Investor Relations, Brian Gallagher. Please go ahead.
Brian Gallagher
Thank you. Good morning and afternoon to everyone and thanks for joining Euronav's Q4 2019 earnings call.
Before I start, I would like to say a few words. The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, Thursday, the 30th of January, 2020, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
statements reflect current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events, performance, underlying assumptions, and other statements which are not statements of historical facts.
All forward-looking statements attributable to the company or to the persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by reference to the risks, uncertainties, and other factors discussed in the company's filings with the SEC, which are available free of charge on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov and on our own company's website at www.euronav.com. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of the particular statement and the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements.
Please take a moment to read our Safe Harbor statement on Page 2 of the slide presentation.
With that, I will now pass on to Hugo De Stoop, our Chief Executive to start with the agenda slide on Slide 3. Hugo, over to you?
Hugo De Stoop
Thank you very much, Brian.
I 'm very pleased to introduce our new CFO, Lieve Logghe, who is with us for thefirst time on this call and I 'm equally pleased to have Rustin Edwards with us, who is our Head of Fuel Procurement.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
I will run through the Q4 highlights before passing on to Lieve who will provide a financial review of the income statement and balance sheet. We will then together look at the current themes in the tanker market and take your questions at the end of our prepared remarks.
Let's turn to Slide 4. Q4 showed a strong freight markets we 've been expecting through most of 2019. The underlying fundamentals have been the key driver behind the remarkable rate increases we saw in Q4. The demand coming from the refineries was strong as they returned from a prolonged period of maintenance and preparation for IMO 2020.
During the quarter, demand growth running at an annualized rate was more than 1.5 million barrels per day. Of course, a number of exceptional factors drove the spot market to very high rates during October. But on average, the race for both VLCCs and Suezmax were the highest seen for a quarter since 2008. This elevated rate environment has continued into 2020, which is yet another sign that the fundamentals of our markets have improved as normally rates softened over the Christmas holiday period.
On another note, we're pleased to confirm that Euronav will adopt a new Belgian corporate code in 2020, allowing us to pay dividends on a quarterly basis. This would permit us to better align the cash flows from our business with our shareholders.
In addition, today, we announced our proposal to pay $ 0.29 dividend per share covering the second half of 2019. This will bring the total dividend for the year at $ 0.35 per share. This is indeed 80% of our net income after adjusting for capital gains.
In addition, to dividends in fact, Euronav bought back to equivalent of $ 13 million worth of shares. So in fact, just for the year 2019, we're returning to our shareholders $ 105 million or almost $ 0.50 per share.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
The good news is that the first quarter of 2020 so far is even stronger than Q4 2019. We 've booked around 60% of the quarter at close to $ 90,000 per day for VLCCs and $ 57,000 per day for our Suezmax. Recently, rates have softened but are still at decent levels around $ 45,000 per day for VLCCs. The sentiment has shifted for the moment much because of the outbreak of a respiratory virus, the coronavirus in China. The full macro-economic impact is still being assessed at the moment.
With that, I will pass on to Lieve who will run through the financials.
Lieve Logghe
Thank you, Hugo.
I 'm very excited to join Euronav and I look forward to meeting most of the people present in the poll in the near future.
Let us have a look at the P & L. The operational leverage of our businesses clearly illustrates in Slide 5. Euronav booked a spectacular profit in Q4 amounting to $ 160 million compared to break-even result in Q4 last year with a similar cost base. Moreover a capital gain was realized on the sale and leaseback of three of our older VLCCs just before year- end. We sold those ships at $ 23 million above their book values. In accordance with IFRS 16, a capital gain of $ 9.3 million will be booked as it represents the portion related to the rights retained and the underlying assets by the buyer at the end of the lease. The remainder of the $ 23 million will be recognized over the leasing period.
The Euronav balance sheet remains strong and robust as shown in Slide 6. Leverage on mark-to-book values remains in the mid-40% which leaves a lot of flexibility. Our cash position at year-end was $ 297 million which is slightly more than prior years and it was augmented at year-end, thanks to the sale and leaseback.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Euronav has no outstanding CapEx when it comes to new buildings, whilst in 2020, we will take 60 ships through their regular survey in dry dock. Six of those ships will require installations of ballast water treatment systems.
I will now pass back to Rustin to run through current issues starting with the fuel spreads post-IMO 2020.
Rustin Edwards
Good afternoon.
The development of the fuel markets leading into an after the IMO 2020 transition have been remarkable. High sulfur fuel oil was looking to follow the predictions of most analysts in November as high sulfur fuel oil practice steadily dropping. Collapsing flow minus $ 30 per barrel and the high sulfur fuel market structure moved to a $ 45 per net ton contango for calendar 2020. Very low sulfur fuel conversely increase in value on our wholesale base especially as shipping companies began to work to supply ships with compliant fuel in late November. December, however painted a much different picture than what people were expecting and that picture continues to develop today.
The FLF chart shows that in early December high sulfur fuel commenced to rally with the pump month crack moving from a minus $ 30 per barrel to minus $ 17 per barrel of a high from the last week. The market structure container the backwardation and it remains in backwardation. The upper right chart shows that very low sulfur fuel predictably started the rally in early December spiking in early January as shipper scramble to get compliant fuel mucker supply to their ships. And it has started to reach a market equilibrium as in the initial panic buying has waned and now very little sulfur fuel supply demand has steadied out, by such an emerging story.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
The refinery sector is very efficient setting up and executing the transition into IMO 2020. Refineries were able to find alternative crude space to dramatically reduce their high sulfur fuel oil yields. As an example, the U.S. Gulf Coast refining system retooled in Q3 to bring in high sulfur fuel of full destruction, increasing coke utilization and moving out light sea crudes in the process. The Indian refining sector also played a part as well ramping up the refining of high sulfur fuel oil end of this quarter. So in the end, the Russian refining system which is long high sulfur fuel oil, found a home for the fuel that they produced and has been shipping large parcels into the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Middle East refiners long high sulfur fuel have also a taker in the Indian refiners for the residual that was not going to be consumed by the scrubber fitted vessels.
Very low sulfur fuel oil has been well supplied in most market regions resulting in a steady supply compliant fuel although with a variety of specifications depending on the blend.
Price wise the spread between the high sulfur fuel and very low sulfur fuel has been volatile as can be seen in the chart on the lower left. We had a spike in the end of December and in the beginning of January up to $ 320 per ton. And it's now coming off as the stronger than expected high sulfur fuel oil market has moved the spread into an average of $ 225 a ton in the crops. The calendar 2020 spread is now at $ 195 per ton, and the calendar 2021 is marked around $ 145 a ton. The forward market is showing continued squeezing of the high sulfur fuel oil versus low sulfur fuel oil spread as higher demand for high sulfur fuel oil is substituting the current very low sulfur fuel demand and as can be seen in the bottom right chart.
From a price perspective, Euronav has been insulated from these market moves from the stocks that we have in the Oceania, which were purchased at $ 47 of a high sulfur fuel oil in early 2019.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Some of the predictive quality issues from the transition have materialized in a very low sulfur fuel oil market. There has been quality issues as blenders were more focusing on needing a sulfur specification rather than the holistic fuel oil quality. As fallout in terms of majority of issues but also some performance specifications are becoming problematic. Blenders have been mixing large amounts of distillates into the very low sulfur fuel oil which results in a very low viscosity fuel oil which can be used for a short duration. But for most ships require special handling it's been used at load over a long voyage. This has prompted Platts to start enforcing a minimum viscosity requirements for the merchantability of very low sulfur fuel oil traded in the market on closed window process in Houston, Rotterdam, and Singapore.
Euronav again has been protected from this, as we have our known quality in hand that we have tested and we 've been had a negligible impact to our operations. We continue being able to have our vessels form our charters to our customers safely and efficiently as we always have.
Brian Gallagher
Thank you, Rusty for that thorough run through and through the fuel spread issues, and Euronav positioning within it.
This is Brian Gallagher, Head of Investor Relations at Euronav. And I 'd now like to move on to Slide 8 in the presentation deck. On our website and in the press release today, we have highlighted that Euronav has today given an update on the IMO webinar from September. So this is going to assess how our outlook has progressed compared to what we said on September the 5 last year.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
One feature we did highlight as a potential driver was the development of China looking to produce compliant low sulfur fuel oil. Early this month, China announced that it was taking away a levy and the IT duties from a domestic production of low sulfur fuel oil. We believe this is a very important development. Over the next 12 months around 1 million barrels per day production of this new compliant fuel could come into play. This output is important, but it's also important to stress that it will not be available on the world's markets to buy but only available to Chinese shippers. However, this potential increase in compliance tool availability is material and something we highlighted five months ago. This is also given more detail on Slide 8.
Moving on to Slide 9, in the large tanker shipping vessel market supplies everything and is a key variable to focus upon. 2020 will again see sustained levels of disruption which we highlight in this slide. 42 vessels are due for delivery during this year which is a headwind but if the IA demand forecast is correct 1.2 million barrels per day, we estimate this will require 36 VLCCs itself to make this increased demand.
Beyond that, uranium vessels, IMO-related storage, long-term storage, the Costco VLCCs and VLCCs leaving the fleet for retrofits will on an annualized basis take out around about 120 VLCCs over the course of 2020 as you see on Slide 9. In addition 28 VLCCs will reach their 20th anniversary during this year and will require a special survey, on which the only one will have to make significant potential capital investments in a vessel with a limited addressable market. It's very encouraging that three such VLCCs have already this calendar year gone to the scrap yard despite face of high freight rates. As the slide shows over 70 vessels in all including this 28, will be aged over 20 years during 2020. That is more than the current order book of 64 VLCCs according to classes.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Finally, there's a lot of speculation regarding the 26 Costco VLCCs which have been out of action since October. We would like to make two points here. These ships are all anchored in the Far East, and it will take time for them to return to the global fleet as and when sanctions are lifted. So this will not be an inserter. Secondly, it's highly likely that will return will coincide with Phase 1 of the U.S. China trade deal announced recently, meaning that some of these vessels will be absorbed into this trade court.
Now moving onto Slide 10 on the share liquidity and a big change for Euronav during Q4 2019. On Slide 10, we focused on share liquidity, which is something that investors have currently focused upon for a long period of time. Euronav is now the most liquid share in the large tanker space with around about $ 50 million worth of value traded each day on average in our shares year-to-date. This is across to exchanges, with a market cap of over $ 2 billion and trading liquidity and meeting many of our investor thresholds, this will allow investors to participate in what Euronav will be in early inning of a sustained tanker cycle.
With those remarks, I will now pass back to our Chief Executive, Hugo De Stoop for an executive summary. Hugo, over to you.
Hugo De Stoop
Thank you, Brian.
We're now on Slide 11. Euronav maintains a very constructive stance on the tanker cycle for the next years to come with all of our traffic lights showing green or green Amber. As mentioned, 2020 year starts strongly and whilst we can continue to expect volatility in freight rates throughout the period, we believe that rates will be strong on averages. While markets will however and as always be influenced by external geopolitical and
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
macroeconomic factors, which are hard to predict. But we believe that the fundamental pillars present today should enable the industry to cope with those with much more flexibility than what we have had in the last decades.
The order book for large tankers is a 25-year low, vessel ordering remains limited, and the age profile of the world fleet is very constructive.
In addition, the recent Phase 1 of the U.S. China trade agreement should support our markets as an important feature of the deal itself is about export of energy into China. With that, I conclude our prepared remarks and I pass back to the operator. Thank you.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [ Operator Instructions ].
And the first question comes from Randy Giveans with Jefferies LLC.
Randy Giveans
Howdy gentlemen, how are you doing?
Hugo De Stoop
How are you, Randy?
Randy Giveans
Great. And yes congrats on the new role, Lieve last CFO left you with a pretty low bar. So I 'm sure you 'll do better than him. So --
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Lieve Logghe
We will try our best, thank you.
Hugo De Stoop
We will definitely do somewhat much better than the previous CFO, I can tell you that.
Randy Giveans
For sure, for sure. So all right, so quick question on the LSFO that you 've bought forward, how much of an impact has that kind of pre-purchase fuel had on your time charter equivalent in the fourth quarter and especially in the first quarter to-date? And then what's the plan kind of going forward with that LSFO that you still have? Is it solely going to be used on Euronav vessels or you get to kind of take advantage of the high prices and sell it to third-parties now?
Hugo De Stoop
Well, Randy, that's a very good question. But it's a very difficult question, certainly the first part, which is impossible to answer. And the reason why it's impossible to answer is because as I mean in the presentation and you 've heard, Rusty, there's been quite a lot of volatility in the price of LSFO, in the price of HSFO. And obviously these are the two products that we compare ourselves because when we purchase this fuel sort of early and middle of last year, it was at a price, it seems, at that time very attractive and which seems has been even more attractive.
But in order to quantify exactly the advantage, you would need to look at the market, almost on a daily basis, and you're not fixing ships on the daily basis. So you can only compare to averages. And as I said, the average so far is probably too early to tell
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
because we had started the quarter on relatively high spreads and the spread was made of a relatively high LSFO price. So, you know the price at which we have acquired all LSFO we have repeatedly said on many occasions that was 448. So at times during the quarter so far, so during the month of January, it was up 250 -- up $ 250 lower than the pieces we have seen but then who has both that material at the fleet. That's a little bit of question. And the same goes if you want to compare us to the guys equipped with the scrubber why it depends when they bought their own shoe and our prices it was at that time.
So I think we will have to wait until the end of the quarter to see the real difference than we have with our peers. And as you know our peers have mix feet, feet with scrubbers, feet without scrubbers and I think at that time, we 'll be able to say okay, our advantage was so much on average for the quarter compared to non-scrubber sheets and are these advantage because should for sure there will be some disadvantage in pricing wouldn't be so much. And then we 'll be able to see going forward whether the strategy continues to make sense, if we need to buy more because there is continuously arbitrage in the market depending on where you buy the LSFO or whether we need to look more seriously at a scrubber strategy, which we have said for a long time now that we continue to assess the benefits of and we will decide when we see some sort of stability in the market.
To answer the second part of your question very quickly. Yes, that feud is only for us. Sorry guys, we're very selfish.
Randy Giveans
Noted, all right. And then I guess just following up on kind of the new dividend policy, obviously, the 80% of net income going forward, how do share repurchases kind of factor into that like you mentioned you purchased a bunch in 2019, share prices obviously pulled
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
back here in the last month. So how did your share repurchases in accordance with the 80% dividend payout policy?
Hugo De Stoop
Yes. So two things to mention there, thank you for asking the question that gives us the opportunity to clarify. 80% is the total return to shoulders and we consider a share repurchase as part of a return to shareholders. So we have seen that in sorry, 2019, we far exceeded our policy because we are returning 80% of our P & L. Any addition, we have done $ 30 million worth of share repurchase. It doesn't mean that we will always do that.
We have indicated a target and the target, the word target was precisely chosen because that's what we are aiming at. But obviously, if we can do more, we will do more. I think the big change in 2020 is the fact that we can distribute dividends on a quarter-to-quarter basis which quite frankly is an advantage for the investors because as opposed to what we have done in the past, we're looking one quarter at a time.
In the past, we're more looking at the year and so the -- some of the profits we're compensating, some of the losses. Going forward, that's not going to be the case you look at the quarter, you distribute the target of 80% for the quarter, you distribute it and in the next quarter, you do loss, then you only have the fixed dividends, but you don't get back what you 've already distributed. So I think that's a significant advantage in a volatile market and it gets our result closer to the shareholders.
Then of course on share repurchase, I think the philosophy of this company has always been the same, which is we don't rush to buy back our shares. So if there is a weakness in the share price, I think we want to see a little bit where it's a temporary weakness or whether it's more permanent and if it's more permanent then obviously we're thinking very seriously about it. We can come back on that. But at the moment, the weakness in share
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price is pretty recent. We were actually quite upbeat about the share price performance in the latter part of last year and certainly in the first 10 days, two weeks in January, where we're finally getting share price was above our NAV, which is always our objective.
So with this point about what's going on at the moment, but we also understand that they are exceptional circumstances around here. And that's true for everyone. So before deploying some capital on share repurchase, I think that we see -- we need to see how long and how deep it will go because if you buy today, maybe tomorrow it will be weaker or maybe tomorrow it's going to be stronger. But if it's stronger tomorrow then it was just a temporary weakness. If it's weaker tomorrow, then you better wait before deploying your capital.
Randy Giveans
That makes sense. Hey thanks for the great color and congrats again on the stellar quarter.
Hugo De Stoop
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Michael Webber with Webber Research Advisory.
Michael Webber
Hugo, one of the touch base first on the impact of initial versus subsequent loadings of different blended fuels it's a little bit early to see an impact yet, but I 'm just curious, now we're hearing some rumblings of that it's causing an issue and it's going to be a bit
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unpredictable. But I 'm curious as you look at Q2 and maybe Q3, do you think those issues could create a measurable impact in terms of available tonnage and how do you think the sector ends up responding to that?
Hugo De Stoop
I think it's a bit early to tell. I mean it's true that what we are seeing the material that we're seeing in the market is a mix of straight trends that have been accumulated over the NIT that was certainly the case for us. But as you know, there were a number of ships out there with LSFO material waiting to be consumed up after the deadline of 31st of December.
I think going forward, you will continue to see a number of refineries producing straight trends out from LSFO that shouldn't be a problem, then you're going to have probably more material hitting the market that are the result of a blend. And indeed, our experience in the past has showed us that you need to be extremely prudent with those blends.
If the seller and you want to get as close as possible to the people who are mixing it basically or blending it. But if the seller has demonstrated to you that this product has been blended in very similar way that in the past it has been sold and marketed with no issue, then you can be confident that the chances are there will be no issue but I agree with you that Q2 and Q3 may see a little bit more untested material. And we can only advise people starting with ourselves to be prudent what they buy. Obviously, everything that we have on the Oceania has been thoroughly tested with many, many times. And we get to go for at least Q1, Q2 probably a little bit more than that. Any color do you want to add Rustin?
Rustin Edwards
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Well, just on the quality issues that are existing in the market today, I mean there are a lot of issues around stability that have popped up. It's been reported in a lot of the different industry publications as well as from the different testing societies such as BTS and Lloyds, and that seems to be the predominant of the biggest problems we are seeing where people are just blending for result, not blending for quality. Hopefully as time goes on, people will get better at what they're doing and the stability issues should go away. But as cost is always a big driver to the blenders P & L maybe not.
Michael Webber
Okay, now that's helpful, I appreciate that, this is not an easy question to tackle. Just as a follow-up, Hugo, just with respect to the fuel hedge, what we're looking at right now in terms of a bit of an exogenous demand shock in terms of coronavirus virus kind of layered on the Chinese New Year. Is there a scenario where we see prices collapse to the point where you would consider re-upping that fuel hedge and extending it for how realistic do you think that is?
Hugo De Stoop
I mean, you know us, I think we can call ourselves very opportunistic. We have a team that is fully dedicated to shoot at the moment and Rustin is heading the team. And we are in the markets not only from screeners; we're talking to people this time. As I mentioned earlier on first question, we see quite a lot of arbitrage from time-to-time, certainly the markets are behaving very differently between the Far East Singapore and the Atlantic specifically in Rotterdam.
So yes, yes, why not, I think that we might do it in a slightly different way because the first time when we did last year, our objective was to fill up the ship, here it's going to be more opportunities to stick around one cargo at a time and make sure that when we buy that
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cargo, we're as close as possible of consuming that cargo. So we're not taking sort of time risk that are unnecessary.
Michael Webber
Right. And would it be fair to assume you need to be near your original cost basis. It's a question that wasn't really pertinent and earlier in January, just given the severe discount we 've seen since it's going to come back on the radar?
Hugo De Stoop
We're still very far from the 448 that we are reporting, don't forget that the 448 we reported is including a lot of extra cost to deliver the material to set up I mean to clean it the ship in order to make sure it wasn't contaminated. So the real cost of the fuel itself is probably lower than that. So we're very far from hitting those territories for sure. But rest assured, I mean we are being at it.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from John Chappell with Evercore.
Sean Morgan
Hi guys, this is Sean Morgan on for John today. So we know it's obviously pretty early and difficult to gauge the impact of coronavirus but as part of TI, your major VLCC operator, do you think there's any impact in your business so far? Have you seen any impact on chartering or any disruptions to the port in terms of loading or unloading?
Hugo De Stoop
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The short answer is no. But why don't I take this opportunity little bit share our view on the coronavirus. I mean first of all, it's bad news. Let's not pretend that it's anything else than bad news. And it's especially a disaster for those who are affected. So let's think about them for a minute.
The impact is definitely uncertain. In the short-term, it's negative, certainly not positive. But that's in the short-term. In the long-term; I guess that everybody's convinced that it will be contained. So to certain extent, you want those measures to be as strong as possible, so that the virus is contained as quickly as possible and I mean believe us, it may take time, it may take a little bit of time, but it will be contained.
The third point that is very important to mention that Euronav business model is to be able to weather all stores because we know that there is always something that can affect us or that can affect our margins. That is completely unpredictable. I think that the model has demonstrated its strength in the past and will continue in the future. So that's probably the only assessment what we can do at the moment, but there's always the sort of long-term positive sides to it.
First of all, if you think about what happened in just the first initial days of the year, it was a pretty big heat-up on the values of vessels. I mean, VLCCs have been exchanged at $ 107 million. And you compare that to $ 90 million that you can get at the shipyard, 14 months down the road, that's $ 40,000 per day of profit, $ 40,000 per day above your OpEx, so $ 70,000 TCV that you need to print on average for 14 months to justify that price. I think those price are probably -- were probably exacerbated by the excitement around the race. But quite frankly, we don't believe that they were just final.
The second potential positive news is that as Brian said, there are 28 ships turning 20 years, 20 years old in 2020. I think that we're making the decision to recycle them a little bit easier if the market goes through a more difficult time for a few months because at
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least it will demonstrate that the market is still volatile and if you want to invest a lot of money to pass that survey, you better make sure that you are going to have a return for your buck.
Two weeks ago, or even last week, there was a couple of reports pretending that 46 Costco ships were going to return to the market. Well, I mean first of all, it's 26. That's the only number of ships that have been idle. Believe me with the virus, they're unlikely to come back very soon.
The next one is -- the next point is probably that if we look at other terrible viruses that are spread out in the past, what we know for sure is that once it's contained and things go back to normal, they don't go back to normal. There's a huge stimulus usually made by China but also by other economies to try to catch back a little bit what has been lost during that period and so if you predict that it may take a few weeks or a few months.
What you have today is a fantastic Q1. I mean no matter what's the rest of the quarter will be it will be a great Q1. Then you will have the server which is never the period for which we count to make the year and then chances are we're back in winter with a super strong market. So depending on how things turn out it should be a great year.
And as far as capital markets are concerned, this is the purpose of the call. This is a fantastic entry points in tanker shipping companies. And with Euronav, of course you have a guarantee to be paid because we just announced we're going to pay dividend. We have announced that we will pay quarterly dividend, so you're going to be paid for 2019. You're going to be paid for 2020. So you're going to be paid for to wait until there is the upside. And if that upside is not as quickly coming as I just expressed, you're in a company with a super strong balance sheet that can weather any storm.
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So yes it is a terrible news. Yes, it is completely unexpected. But quite frankly, if I was an investor and I was attracted by the sector, I know where I would put my money.
Sean Morgan
Okay, great. So sounds like pretty comprehensive answer but no disruption so far. So I guess we 'll continue to monitor that. You did mention in your response the Costco ship. So I guess that kind of is a good lead into my second question. Supply is obviously an important driver to the cycle, of those 120 vessels from Slide 9 or Page 9 that are out of trading, what is the base case return number you guys are thinking in terms of those 120 vessels that will return sometimes this year like what's your base case?
Brian Gallagher
Well, Sean its Brian Gallagher here. And I 'm -- I think what we want to try and get across with the Slide here is to say that this disruption is, as it says on the slides going to be constrained and probably sustain, the 26 shifts as Hugo said in his remarks as well, we would expect to see some flow back of those, there potentially will also be some flow back from ships which have been driven by and motivated by IMO motivated storage.
But apart from that, it's very difficult to see the other categories of those ships coming back. The VLCC retrofits is an annualized number based on consensus figures of like 96 days to ago, and be retrofitted over this year. So I think the only real element we would see about 120 is those Costco ships. And of course that is wound up with the U.S. China Phase 1 deal and the fact that they're positioned in the Far East and as you guys said as well several times in this call already we don't expect those ships to return back to the market very quickly as and when they are given permission to do so. So that would be the only real moving part we would say out of the 120.
Sean Morgan
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Okay, great. So about 75% of those will remain out for the year. All right, thanks. That's all I have.
Brian Gallagher
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.
James Monigan
Hi guys, James on for Chris. I want to touch on the scrubber installations in your walk. I think you called out 16; want to get a sense of when those 16 vessels might be returning to the market? And if there might be another wave of scrubber installations on the back of that as well?
Hugo De Stoop
Well, that's a very similar question to the one we just answered but the 16 is the annualized number. So in fact, it's close to 100 ships that have order scrubbers and that needs to be scrubber fitted, so they will go in the yard. They will return from the yard after the retrofit which on average we understand is 35 to 40 days. That's the figure that we get from the market, obviously not from our own experience. And then who knows? I mean it depends where the spread is going. I mean, there's I suppose a lot of people like us who are waiting to see where the spread stabilize in order to take their decisions, but we are part is busier than they were last year, so things should get better and better. And then the total number of retrofit will depend on where the spread stems out.
James Monigan
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Got it. And then in terms of dry docking, I think you called out 16 vessels that will be dry docked in 2020, what type of off-hire should we expect for that and then what would that be relative to what you experience in 2019?
Hugo De Stoop
In 2019, it was a very light year, we only had one and well almost two dry dock, one was over the year-end, so nothing to compare one year with the other. In 2020, 16 ships, on average this day VLCCs is 21 days, Suezmax is little bit quicker 18, 19 days. But six of those 16 ships will require ballast water treatment system to be installed. And so we are likely to take four or five additional days compared to a normal dry dock to do that.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Ben Nolan with Stifel.
Ben Nolan
Hi, good morning, or afternoon guys. So I had a -- first of all, just sort of given the outlook that Brian laid out with a green light and Amber and so forth. I 'm curious how you think about asset values here, I mean obviously you're optimistic with respect to the current market and the outlook and everything else. Do you feel that's appropriately reflected in asset values? Or would you potentially be buyers of assets in this market?
Hugo De Stoop
Well, we partially answered the question earlier with when I mentioned that 107. When you compare that to a brand new ship that you can order in current shipyard that is $ 90 million, it's very difficult to justify, that's a little bit the nature of the market at the moment.
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
If you look at the TCE and if you look at the historical asset value performance versus the spot market, then we should probably be a little bit higher than what we are today. But that's not really how it's going to play out this time because the yards are I wouldn't say pretty empty but the order book is pretty low as you know, and as we mentioned in the presentation which means that we're unlikely to see any inflation in the prices of new buildings. So that will probably anchor down the potential increasing values of the second hand touch. So you will always have a premium to pay when the market is good because well the asset is on the water and ready to earn immediately, but nevertheless is going to be trapped by the fact that the first bird available for new buildings are 14 or 15 months down the road and so you just made the calculation that I just did for you.
Other than that, I think we have already seen a pretty high uptick compared to the bottom of the market. So we don't expect to see much more and quite frankly for the prom super modern, sort of resale and new deliveries is likely to go down. Are we bias? I think that we are opportunistic and so it depends. And some of those ships are called ships for shares and so it depends where your share price is trading, I mean obviously we're not happy at all with those share price at the moment. But if we were to create at NAV or above NAV, would we exchange it for a ship at NAV, why not? Our purpose is to consolidate, when it comes to cash payments that we need to be more conservative than the numbers we 've seen so far this year.
Ben Nolan
Okay, that's very good. I appreciate that, Hugo. And then just as my follow-up in the past, particularly in the Suezmax, I think you guys have taken time charter coverage, market is pretty good. Have you been at all active in that or any thoughts on potentially doing so?
Hugo De Stoop
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The volume of time charter contracts that are available in the market is very thin, so that you don't have so many opportunities. And in fact, you probably have less opportunities in the last three months or four months simply because the market has been extremely volatile, extremely fortified on the way up. I was quickly going to $ 100,000 a day, very little distraction over the Christmas holiday, and then suddenly a massive drop. So I think that everybody is looking at each other in the eyes and thinking on one side, this is too high and on the other side this is too low. And that's what we call the bid of a spread. And we need to see a little bit more stability. And I know it's asking a lot for our markets because most of the time we don't see that but they need some visibility and I think that some of the events affecting the market at the moment, we spoke a lot about the virus, it's just too unpredictable for people to start signing long-term contracts.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Greg Lewis of BTIG.
Hugo De Stoop
Hi Greg.
Operator
Mr. Greg Lewis, your line is open. We're moving on. The next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.
Amit Mehrotra
Thanks operator. Hi, Hugo, so I guess there were some trade reports 10 days ago or so that Euronav was carrying out inquiries with scrubber suppliers. I just wanted to know if you can expand on that either confirm or deny that. And then I understand the spread has
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Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
come in, I think that's obviously clear. But maybe one of the issues can be because the price of crude oil is down over 15% since January. So I want to understand your thinking around scrubbers, you kind of alluded to it a little bit earlier, but I would like you to expand on it because the premium that's currently being achieved, there is a sizable premium on at least on a TCE basis for scrubber fitted vessels. And the fact of the matter is the spread could just be a reflection of some transitory reduction in input costs, it can kind of widen that back out. So it would be great to just get your perspective on that?
Hugo De Stoop
Yes, absolutely. So the first part of questions, we don't know we are going to install scrubbers and the answer is the same as we have mentioned since September last year. We're not against scrubber, we're not post-scrubber. But we certainly against speculative investment because we're speculative enough in our traditional business, I would say.
So we're looking at the market. We look at the price of HSFO. We look at the forward curve of LSFO and then we look at the time that it would take to install the scrubber, we want to minimize the time as much as possible. The only way to minimize the time is to be prepared. How do you prepare yourself while you make the planning for the ship, certainly the ships are going to dry dock because obviously you don't want to take ship out of the trading fleet, when the market is good. And in order to do that, you need to go and contact dry docks, shipyards, you need to go and contact the scrubber manufacturers. And you probably need to go and contact some consultants who're specialized and were gaining the experience so that if you decide to do it, it's going to be done in a very smooth way.
So it's totally normal that the market is talking about Euronav engaging with scrubber especially and I 'm sure and I would be pleased to hear that that you continue to hear that because that's absolutely true, we're taking the matter very seriously just to minimize the
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time that would take us to install in case we see an economic benefit, and also in case we can to the extent possible lock in that economic benefit and de-speculate the investment.
As far as the second part of your question, maybe I should give the word to Rustin, but I will maybe introduce the spread has nothing to do with the oil price and movement of each individual pricing of each individual products sorry has to do with the oil price. But the spread has nothing to do with the oil price. And why?
Rustin Edwards
In relation to the value of high sulfur fuel oil, it has appreciated greatly in value versus crude and that was happening even before the sell-off in WTI and crude over the last two weeks. And again, if you look at the back of the high sulfur fuel crack and the prompt in December it was minus 30 at the end of the December minus 20, last week or even yesterday it was pricing around minus $ 17.25. So in that case it is developed by the high sulfur has appreciated in value. And it's not, it has very little to do with the actual flat price movement on crude, it has more to do with the actual spot --
Amit Mehrotra
Do you have a fundamental view that the price of high sulfur fuel oil is going up, when half of demand for high sulfur fuel oil is going away?
Rustin Edwards
Yes.
Hugo De Stoop
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So the answer is yes. And everybody around the table is saying yes but maybe we should tell you a little bit more because in your question, you imply that half of the demand is going away and that's maybe where we differ because in opinions of course.
Rustin Edwards
You can see -- you 've had a fair amount of high sulfur fuel has been destroyed through refineries switching to crude place. You also have a fair amount of demand that's increased from the high sulfur feedstock side from refineries especially the U.S. Gulf Coast and India, where the refineries are fully utilizing and cokers to destroy high sulfur fuel mix distillates. Part of the reason why the distillate crack has been weak, has weakened to the fact that the cokers are being fully used to storing high sulfur fuel and producing distillate which is feeding into the point five in the low sulfur markets.
On the third set on a forward view, you have a fair amount of residual destruction capacity coming online in Asia with all the new RDS program that's going to be coming online from the PRC Refiners along with South Korea and they're going to need feedstock as well, their feedstock is going to be again high sulfur fuel. So when you start having that extra demand pool coming to the market, you could see a more appreciation, high sulfur cracks especially in Q3 and Q4 of this year.
Amit Mehrotra
Okay. All right, I 'll move on. I mean, I 'll take it offline. Maybe I had to get smarter on it. But if you just take a line chart of crude oil prices against a line chart of the spread average in 2020, it's like a 90% correlation since July of last year's, like the two lines are basically on top of each other. But anyways, maybe I have to get smarter on them; I 'm clearly not an energy analyst. Hugo, the other question I had is just maybe more philosophical it's interesting because like you and maybe like one other company in the space actually have
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these capital structures that are sustainable, low break-evens. It gives you a lot of options where you can pay down debt and kind of get to a net debt neutral position, you can issue dividends in the hope that you get credit for that in the equity markets and your currency appreciates. So, I want to check your temperature on kind of your philosophy on capital because you're generating a lot of cash flow, but you're deciding to focus on dividends instead of basically getting to a net debt neutral position, which would obviously further lower your break-evens and possibly even help your currency relative to NAV. So if you can just expand on that and what is Euronav capital structure look like 12, 18 months from now, is it basically at the current LTV levels? Or just help us think about your philosophy there?
Hugo De Stoop
Yes, thank you. Well, I 'm a little bit surprised by the question, because I hope that our capital structure, certainly the leverage when it's smart to book in mark-to-market that's very dangerous, of course, and capital allocation has been clearly communicated to the market. So we want to be between 40% and 50%.
Amit Mehrotra
Well, it's clear but, you said, you can do between dividends and share buybacks. I 'm just trying to understand like, what does that mean to the end so to speak?
Hugo De Stoop
I think that well, when we speak to shareholders and then obviously we take the seat back home, we clearly see that people want us to return capital especially for this kind of business where the cash generation is just huge, when the market is high. So you take that home and then you decide what percentage you want to return to the market.
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That's the first decision that we needed to take. Why do we take 80%? Well, relatively similar to the last time we did 80%, we told that with the depreciation policy that we have and the 20% that we reserved, we have enough to not only renew the fleet, but also to add more on an organic way. So that's the philosophy between behind the 80%. And we can be more generous when the market permits and we 've demonstrated that in 2019.
As far as the choice between dividends and share buyback, I think it is pretty clear. You need to pay dividends. I mean there's a lot of people who are asking for the dividends. And then so let's say that this is 50% of the 80%, not 40%, but a real 50% of net profit that will probably always be returned as dividends. And then with the remaining 30%, we can probably play between share buybacks and dividends.
And as I just mentioned on an earlier question, I think when it comes to share buyback, you should not rush into a decision. I mean, you should not every time the share is we then you intervene. And the reason why you shouldn't do that is maybe something we didn't explain, simply because a lot of times you can not do that. I mean, the full month of January we're in closed period. So there's nothing we can do there. And so if the market anticipates you to overreact every time there is a weakness in share price, then when you don't do it, they're going to start wondering why you're not doing it immediately especially because in Belgium, we need to declare that within seven days.
So we are I think a very stable company. We're a group of people with a lot of experience out here. We 've demonstrated when we do share buybacks, it's a real opportunity, it's really creating value for the shareholders. And we will continue to have that philosophy. So now we 've been -- we 've seen share price weakness for the last maybe 10 days or 10 sessions not even as matter of fact.
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Let's see where the market takes us. Let's see how capital markets react to this virus and the continuous flow of news that we're going to receive and let's see what happens to the tanker market into the tanker values to really see where we are compared to the NAV. So it's all the kind of analogies that we are doing and in the meantime, people know that we're dedicated to return a certain amount of capital and a big portion of that capital will be dividends.
Amit Mehrotra
And Brian just to -- no I get it. And Brian, just to confirm the dividend that you're going to pay in May is going to reflect the first quarter plus what you just declared this morning for 2019, so you get like a double benefit in the month of May. Is that right?
Brian Gallagher
Correct.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Omar Nokta with Clarksons.
Omar Nokta
Hey, guys, thank you. You covered obviously a lot of ground. But I just wanted to follow- up, maybe just a couple of things. The JV to buy those two Suezmaxes at the end of last year was seemingly timed quite well and use the word opportunistic earlier in your comments as you think about Euronav in general, but when you think of the company going forward, do you see yourself doing these types of investments a bit more. And when
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it comes to say acquiring older tonnage, do you prefer to do that in say a JV format, and then maybe keeping the overall Euronav platform available for more modern or a high-end inspections?
Hugo De Stoop
No, clearly that's not the case. I mean it was opportunistic because someone had an option and required the capital to exercise that option. It's as simple as that. We had the capital, we like the partner, we knew them for a long time, we 've been working with them albeit on different business but certainly through the pool. So we had no problem entering into a joint venture with those guys, a bit after we reach very, by the way. And the opportunity was clearly in their hands not in ours. When they were looking for a partner that could execute the deal very quickly because I think that when they approached us there was less than six weeks before the expiry of the option. They clearly found a partner that protect prompting that's why we call it opportunistic.
Would we have done that on our own or our own balance sheet despite the age of the assets? Yes, of course, we need to be opportunistic, especially at a time when we have at least two Suezmax which are slightly older reaching 15 years of age that is where we want to dispose them because of their age profile at a time when we're very confident that the market is going to be rewarding. Then it makes a lot of sense to replace one old ship with another one that is slightly less old, in this case is two years younger, just to be able to benefit from those two years. So that's maybe the philosophy but it's not -- it's certainly not a policy I would say, when it's too old we will park them in joint venture. And when it's young enough, we will put them in our platform. Because the reality is that it is the platform who will support those ships together with a partner. In other words, if the platform was commercially managing those ships, we provided the capital, we provide this, we provide that. So no, it's opportunistic and we're happy about it.
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Omar Nokta
Okay, thanks for that. And maybe this is maybe a bit more open-ended question. But as you mentioned, the leverage is on the low end. And your VLCC fleet is fairly modern. And as you say that the Suezmaxes or handful Suezmaxes on the older side, you talked about selling an older vessel and then acquiring one that's a couple years younger, that seems a bit more tactical and near-term in nature. How do you think a bit more broadly about say that the fleet renewal within the Suezmax segments especially with the backdrop of uncertainty with propulsion systems going forward? Any color on that would be helpful.
Hugo De Stoop
It's the good news and the bad news and to certain extent because the reality is that Euronav is no different than the other players in the market. We don't know what the next technology is going to be. We don't know who's going to win this battle of around different propulsion systems. And so when it comes to renewing the fleet, yes, we can buy second hand. And to a certain extent, we would be better off by buying second hand because that means it would be a couple of years older than if we buy a new building in the sense that then they will arrive to the 20-year anniversary quicker and if we buy new building. But the reality is that we don't know what technology is going to win. And I think that despite the fact that our Suezmax fleet is a little bit older and is getting a bit older than what we would like to see. We're going to be very disciplined about it, which is good for the overall market because the rest of the market is like us.
I mean we can not just go to the shipyards and order existing technology because that one we know it's probably not going to thrive. And we can not buy LNG just yet because the premium that is being asked, and that's true for Suezmax and VLCC, it's just too big for us
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to absorb on a speculative basis. So very happy to do that, together with an all major who believes in the technology and who benefits from selling more LNG for instance, but on our own like all the other owners, we believe that the premiums to be.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question comes from Espen Landmark with Fearnley.
Espen Landmark
Hey, good afternoon. A question on refining margins I mean maybe it's a bit off topic but they're quite weak at the moment for several reasons but it's maybe it's a bit worrying given it tends to be a decent indicator for productivity and freight, I mean the floating volumes out of Singapore will be unwind at some point is that something moving to the needle positively for margins?
Rustin Edwards
So, in the first part of your question there on the floating storage in Singapore, a lot of that has actually been worked off into the market. And the floating stocks have been reduced greatly, mainly on demand pull into secondary markets outside of Singapore itself that we're looking for 0.5 fuel in December and January. So the latest estimate, I think I read from Clarksons was that there was about a million tons left in floating outside of the large overhang that was developed in Q3 -- in Q2 of 2019.
On the four refining margins yes, they 've been under pressure here is off-late. It's no question that part of that impact is due to the issues going on with China in the coronavirus outbreak. But we're also going into the time of year where we're going to start seeing refinery start going through their Q1, Q2 turnaround period. So there will be a slap off in demand for crude.
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Espen Landmark
That's helpful. And maybe on that last point, I mean any views on whether we're going to see another extended kind of maintenance season this Spring or is it to be a more normalized one seeing refiners are better prepared now?
Rustin Edwards
From what I 've seen on the data, the turnaround period this year in Q2 is not going to be as robust as it was last year. I don't have a number off the top my head, so I do apologize, but it is not as big as it was last year.
Espen Landmark
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.
Hugo De Stoop
Yes, which is no one because the refineries have switched to LSFO no longer need to prepare, which was cleaning up the tank, steel piping, et cetera to avoid contamination. And there's still a number of refineries, well for the first time produces is important. So for those guys, the outage may be a little bit longer, but obviously the vast majority of the market is prepared for IMO 2020 ahead of 2020. So you're only looking at a few exceptions here.
Operator
Thank you. [ Operator Instructions ].
And the next question comes from Manny Garcia with Anchorage Capital.
Manny Garcia
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Hi, guys. Two questions, can you give some color on order and activity for VLCCs and Suezmaxes during the fourth quarter and first quarter this year? And then also, I think last year, there's a lot of speculation and issues with scrubber installations during the dry docks any kind of updates or stories about that more recently? Thanks.
Brian Gallagher
Yes, this is Brian Gallagher here, two things. Yes, on my latest presentations, which are not on the website for normal presentations, we will focus on the fact that the run rate is at 12-month lows in terms of VLCC orderings over the last 12 months, we 've added 24 days have been ordered, which is a very, very low number in the context of the demand background. So we continue to see a big reluctance in ordering as Hugo talked about a bit earlier because of the uncertainty with regard to meeting emission standards and few propulsion systems to meet that.
And in terms of disruption from scrubbers, obviously, we wouldn't maybe be the most obvious company to talk about on that. But that does seem to be evidence from some of our peers that the disruption is reducing modestly and I think the numbers we're hearing is somewhere between 35 and 40 days as an off-hire in terms of getting the scrubber fitted, which is coming in from sort of number which is mid to high 40s in the middle part of last year. But obviously somewhat that's been driven by less congestion and obviously less people looking to retrofit those scrubbers.
Hugo De Stoop
I 'd just would like to add one, one little note, which is side note, obviously. Most of the shipyards are ever executed, the retrofit of scrubbers are located in China. And so at the moment, they continue to be closed down. So that could create a delay for the ship that we're looking into entering those yards at the moment or even the ships that are currently
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in the yard. So that can create a delay which is not due to the complexity of the installation or the problems that people have encountered last year, but much more to the fact that at the moment is a lot of travel restrictions. There's a lot of workers that went back home to celebrate the New Year and are returning to the shipyards or to the factories. So that can create further delays indeed.
Operator
Thank you. And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments.
Hugo De Stoop
Well, nothing -- nothing to add. I think we have covered a lot of the ground, anyway if you have additional questions you know where to find us. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Comments ( 2)
JpSp
https: //seekingalpha.com/article/4320251-euronav-nvs-eurn-ceo-hugo-de-stoop-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript? part=single
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1/31/2020
Euronav NV's ( EURN) CEO Hugo De Stoop on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
sorry friend what's nice exactly? The shorts won this round so are you with them?;) we are down from 13+ please elucidate
30 Jan 2020, 08:07 PM
visahing @ hotmail.com
Nice
30 Jan 2020, 07:18 PM
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Euronav NV published this content on 31 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 31 January 2020 17:24:05 UTC | business |
UBS ' Hong Kong Art Showcase at Risk | The Hong Kong edition of the world's largest art fair backed by UBS is uncertain after the World Health Organization declared an emergency in a new coronavirus.
Last year's Art Basel fair in Hong Kong drew nearly 90,000 people – the three-day March event for wealthy collectors to meet up with galleries and dealers looks almost certain to be canceled amid a public health emergency over a novel coronavirus. It is heavily backed by UBS.
More than 200 people have died in China due to the virus, which the World Health Organization declared an emergency on Thursday. Hong Kong employers have sent staff home, and major events in the city like a marathon next month are canceled.
Not If, But When
As for the art fair, due to begin on March 19, galleries are urging Art Basel's organizers to pull the plug, arguing that big buyers won't want to come to Hong Kong anyway during a health crisis. Several dealers are reportedly dropping out of the event.
« The contemplation of postponing or canceling an event of this scale – which takes a full year to produce – is a complex process, with many factors and multiple stakeholders, » the Hong Kong fair organizer said, according to a « Bloomberg » report ( behind paywall). The outcome of a crisis meeting on Thursday in Basel between organizers and stakeholders isn't clear.
New Virus Changes Everything
Even before the novel coronavirus surfaced as a health emergency, the art fair was in doubt: wide-spread and often violent anti-government protests in Hong Kong have lasted for months. But the virus and measures to contain it have lent the issue new urgency – particularly following the WHO's declaration on Thursday.
This week, Hong Kong schools and museums closed, flights have been canceled, and transport to the territory is dramatically restricted. UBS, the main sponsor of Art Basel, has banned its staff from traveling to mainland China and asked its 2,500 staff in Hong Kong to work from home. | general |
Peter Imhof's Top Picks: Jan. 31, 2020 | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
I am presently cautious on the overall market, but do believe the current turmoil is presenting investors with some good opportunities in certain sectors and more on a stock-specific basis. We have seen some exaggerated movements as the coronavirus affects stocks in the near term. If you look at historic patterns, these scares have presented buying opportunities for investors that have a longer-term time horizon. Investors should pick their spots and accumulate names that have demonstrated the ability to grow their earnings despite a negative macro environment.
Peter Imhof, vice president and portfolio manager at AGF Investments, discusses his top picks: K92 Mining, Element Fleet Financial, Parex Resources.
K92 MINING ( KNT TSXV) Most recently bought this week at $ 3.60.
K92 is a rapidly growing gold producer that continues to under-promise and over-deliver. It recently reported a record quarter of production that beat all estimates in terms of production as well as grade. The company has guided to production growth for 2020 of between 35 and 45 per cent. K92 has been mining the third-highest-grade gold mine over the past 12 months, only behind the extremely high-grade mines of Kirkland Lake. Investors should expect to see more drill results in the near future as well as a new resource within the next couple of months.
ELEMENT FLEET FINANCIAL ( EFN TSX) Most recent purchase at $ 12.20.
Element’ s business is to manage vehicle fleets for corporations. The company has been putting up strong earnings growth over the past number of quarters and continues to win new business. Management changes over the past couple of years have done wonders for getting investors back on board with the company. I see strong visibility in their earnings growth relative to the valuation it trades at.
PAREX RESOURCES ( PXT TSX) Added to the position at $ 23. Parex Resources is the premier oil producer in Colombia. Management has done a great job of growing per-share production growth. The stock has come off approximately 15 per cent since the onset of the coronavirus, but continues to deliver excellent results. The company is a long-term compounder despite the fact that they have been facing headwinds of a negative oil market for the past few years. If we do see a bounce in oil prices, we should see a strong rebound in their stock.
Peter Imhof, vice president and portfolio manager at AGF Investments, discusses his past picks: WPT Industrial REIT, Tamarack Valley, Kraken Robotics.
Perhaps the most relevant comparison to the mad dash of scoring a rapid antigen test is the frenzied market for toilet paper that broke out in 2020.
Nutrien remains tight-lipped on departure of two CEOs in eight months.
At least one currency strategist is surprised by the Canadian dollar’ s flat performance over the past year considering the boom in commodity prices and the Bank of Canada’ s timeline for hiking interest rates.
Canada's oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of crude to overseas markets thanks to a new link to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
We can all hope the new year brings plenty of opportunity. For the average retirement investor looking for some tax relief in 2022, it knocks three times.
The Ontario government will offer a $ 10,000 grant to small businesses forced to close due to public health measures.
As Ontario looks to curb virus cases amid the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, many workers adjusting to another round of COVID-related restrictions feel the changes are taking a toll on their mental health.
The U.S. SEC is charging 3 Florida residents for their alleged involvement in an insider trading ring that is believed to have netted millions of dollars in profits, including from tips tied to an ill-fated attempted takeover of Aphria | general |
Coronavirus: first human transmission in Thailand as death toll hits 258 | Thailand has recorded its first human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus after a taxi driver was apparently infected by a traveller, heightening concern over the virus’ s potential to spread across the globe.
The taxi driver was among five new patients confirmed on Friday in the worst-hit country outside China, bringing the total number of cases in Thailand to 19.
Thailand is among the most popular holiday destinations for Chinese people celebrating the lunar new year, and officials have warned that an outbreak in its tourism hotspots is possible.
In other developments on Friday:
The death toll increased to 258, with more than 11,000 cases confirmed in mainland China.
The UK, Russia and Spain recorded their first cases.
The US declared a public health emergency and announced it will temporarily bar entry for people traveling from China unless they are Americans or immediately related to US citizens.
More than 25,000 people arrived in Thailand from Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, and other affected Chinese cities between 3 and 27 January.
Most of the Chinese visitors are believed to have returned home, although on Friday afternoon China’ s foreign ministry said it would send charter flights to Thailand and Malaysia to bring back residents of virus-affected regions who may have been stranded after sweeping travel restrictions were introduced across China last week.
Tanarak Plipat, the deputy director general of the department of disease control, said the taxi driver had not recently travelled to China, adding “ It is likely that he was infected [ by ] a sick traveller from China. ”
As concerns grew about a wider epidemic, the US drew China’ s wrath after it issued advice not to travel to China, raising the warning for China to the same level as Afghanistan and Iraq, potentially worsening supply problems for Chinese businesses.
Beijing, which has only just started to mend trade relations with the US, criticised the move, saying that it went against WHO recommendations. “ The World Health Organization urged countries to avoid travel restrictions, but very soon after that, the United States did the opposite, ” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in a statement. “ It’ s truly mean. ”
Japan also advised citizens to put off non-urgent travel to China, while Bahrain recommended no travel to any country hit by the virus, and Iran urged a ban on all travellers from China.
As well as Russia and Britain, Spain, Sweden and Italy also reported their first cases; Rome declaring its own national emergency as it sought to reconstruct the itinerary of two infected Chinese tourists.
The number of confirmed infections in China is likely to represent a small fraction of those actually infected.
Covid-19 is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
A new analysis, published in The Lancet on Friday, estimated that as many as 75,800 people in Wuhan may have been infected as of 25 January and that several major Chinese cities might already have enough people infected to initiate local epidemics. “ It is possible that epidemics could be already growing in multiple major Chinese cities, with a time lag of one to two weeks behind the Wuhan outbreak, ” said the lead author, Prof Joseph Wu of the University of Hong Kong.
Evacuations of foreign nationals from Wuhan have been stepped up: a plane carrying more than 100 British and other EU nationals trapped in Wuhan travelled to the UK after Chinese spouses and partners were given permission to travel. Germany said on Friday it was sending a military plane to China to evacuate more than 100 of its citizens. South Korea evacuated 367 of its citizens on Friday.
The virus is believed to have a two-week incubation period, and it is thought that those infected can pass on the illness before they show symptoms such as fever, coughing and breathing difficulties.
As the virus in these cities spreads faster than in Wuhan itself and other sites outside a lockdown zone, the first dismissal of a senior health official in Hubei has spurred authorities to push for more effective measures.
Wuhan’ s Communist party chief, Ma Guoqiang, said in a nationally televised interview on Friday that the impact of the virus on the rest of China and the world “ would have been less ” if containment measures had been implemented sooner. “ Right now I’ m in a state of guilt, remorse and self-reproach, ” he said.
Thai officials have stepped up measures at airports and other tourist areas after criticism that the government had failed to act quickly to stop the virus and that tourism profits were being prioritised over public health.
Screening for people working in the tourism industry, as well as all passengers travelling from China, has been introduced. In Bangkok’ s public transport system, and some of its big shopping malls, free hand sanitiser is being handed out.
On Tuesday the public health minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, told Sky News he expected the number of infections to rise, warning: “ We are not able to stop the spread. ”
Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report
| general |
Sun Chaser’ s alcohol-free ‘ buzz’ comes from nootropics | Or wait...
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31-Jan-2020 - Last updated on 31-Jan-2020 at 22:37 GMT
Related tags: non-alcoholic, non-alcoholic drinks, Supplements, nootropics, start-up function sanitize gpt value2 ( gptValue) { var vOut= '' ''; var aTags = gptValue.split ( ', '); var reg = new RegExp ( '\\W+ ', `` g ''); for ( var i=0; i < aTags.length; i++) { vOut += aTags [ i ].trim ().replace ( reg, '- ').substring ( 0,40); if ( i! = ( aTags.length-1)) vOut += ', '; } vOut = vOut.toLowerCase (); return vOut; } $ ( document).ready ( function () { dataLayerNews = { }; dataLayerNews.related tags = sanitize gpt value2 ( `` non-alcoholic, non-alcoholic drinks, Supplements, nootropics, start-up ''); dataLayer.push ( dataLayerNews); });
After nearly one year of testing formulas, Sun Chaser co-founders Nellie Coffy and Joce Stradiotto are about to launch pre-orders of their beverage brand on their website. Sun Chaser is a carbonated alcohol alternative that is free from booze and caffeine.
In the quickly growing category of alcohol-free, Sun Chaser is designed to give drinkers a ‘ buzz’ without alcohol and without the next-day hangover.
It is using a blend of nootropics, which are ‘ smart drug’ supplements that improve cognitive function. L-theanine, 5-HTP, GABA and cordyceps come together in Sun Chaser and simulate the feeling of being ‘ buzzed’ or slightly drunk.
Stradiotto dabbled in biohacking with her own supplements to enhance her personal brain cognition when working at Google, where she and Coffy met. Together the two realized an RTD ‘ fun’ option was lacking in the market.
The fundamental question behind the product was, “ How can we create a better drinking experience for people like us, who want to engage deeply in our social lives, but who also want to have beautiful, enriching lives outside of drinking? ” Coffy said.
Coffy spoke to BeverageDaily and emphasized the distinction between ‘ drunk’ and ‘ buzzed.’ The effects of one 12oz can of Sun Chaser is about equivalent to one average serving of alcohol, and the co-founders do not recommend drinking more than two in one day.
The nootropics included in the formula are known to impact the centers in the brain responsible for stress relief, mood and joy. Each have a specific feeling in the body, but when combined that feeling evolves.
“ The interplay of these supplements loosens your inhibitions slightly, it brings on a sense of anti-anxiety properties, beautiful feelings of relaxation and heightened feelings of joy, ” Coffy said.
Sun Chaser isn’ t intended to replace binge drinking or get consumers drunk, but rather give them another option in between. It impacts the brain and induces a slightly altered state, but still allows for moderation and control.
Consumers are advised not to operate heavy machinery after drinking Sun Chaser, and those nursing or pregnant should consult with a doctor before consuming supplements. Sun Chaser’ s claims have not been verified by the FDA, and they will enforce an age minimum of 18 to purchase.
“ Most individuals feel the intended effects within 15-30 minutes. The buzz often comes quickly, is felt for about an hour, and then ends. We recommend you start with a single can and see how you feel before drinking a second, ” Sun Chaser said.
Nootropics are just beginning to gain recognition, and Coffy believes it’ s only a matter of time before their application in beverage is mainstream. The closest product on the market to Sun Chaser is Kin Euphorics, which started as an alternative to liquor.
Kin’ s original High Rhode and newer Dream Light products are designed to be used as replacements for spirits in cocktails. Both blend adaptogens, nootropics and botanics for a specific function.
The former is to be enjoyed in a social setting like Sun Chaser, while the latter is positioned as a sleep supplement beverage. Kin also sells the 8oz canned Spritz, that it calls a ‘ sparkling twist’ on High Rhode for taking on the go.
Sun Chaser is still in its early stages, and will begin accepting pre-orders on February 10. From there, Coffy said they hope to attract enough attention and funds to get the first batch of Sun Chaser in the hands of consumers by April.
“ I think this market is going to grow and expand to the point where a generation from now, people aren’ t going to think that alcohol is the only drink we have to have fun, ” Coffy said.
For now Sun Chaser consists of one, original variety that features tart cherry, mint, lime and lemon flavors. It’ s packaged in a 12oz can. They are hoping to target the young millennial and 18+ Gen Z demographic that have been so receptive to low ABV and zero-proof drinks.
Coffy and Stradiotto remind customers on their website that the effects of Sun Chaser are usually seen on a sliding scale, and are dependent on each individual’ s physiology. They note that “ no two buzzes are alike ” and some may not experience an altered state from the product at all.
“ I think our kids and our kids’ kids will be drinking drinks that are far beyond our wildest expectations that do give us a sense of feeling a little lighter and feeling a little different, but that we don’ t have to trade our health in exchange for, ” Coffy said.
“ I think we’ re on a really exciting precipice when it comes to how we treat our bodies, how we treat our minds and how we engage with the people we love. ”
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Related topics: Ingredients, Retail & Shopper Insights, Markets, R & D, Soft Drinks & Water, Health and Wellness, Fizzing-Up Carbonates, Emerging Markets, Future Flavors, Energy Drinks & Beyond, Functional Beverages, Beverage Entrepreneurs, Craft
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Wuhan, my hometown, is not a city of fear | On 17 January, I met a friend at the Hankou train station in Wuhan, 17 days after the first cases of coronavirus had been reported. She was the only person wearing a face mask. At the time, the official line was that everything was under control and the spread of the virus would be prevented. “ The Huanan seafood market is only two blocks away, ” I teased, a reference to the epicentre of the outbreak. In an all-night restaurant, the glass tanks were swimming with life. We ate noodles with crab legs. The streets were packed, drunk revellers hailing cabs after their end-of-year company parties. A man doubled over to vomit and a young woman patted him on the back: “ Ready for another round? ”
A week ago, the panic was still confined to health-conscious retirees, always prone to worrying about seasonal illnesses. News of a virus just gave older people another reason to instruct the young: don’ t go out, drink plenty of water. There were also the conspiracy theorists who doubted official news but couldn’ t provide more reliable information. To most of us, not wearing a mask seemed reasonable and logical. Who wanted to be associated with paranoid pensioners or ill-informed cranks?
Wuhan is not a city of fear. I can’ t think of a time when my hometown has ever been gripped by panic. Perhaps this has something to do with its revolutionary past – the city is the site of the Wuchang uprising in 1911 that overthrew the Qing dynasty. If a revolution didn’ t faze us, a virus won’ t either.
In 1998, when I was a child growing up in Wuhan, a flood burst the dams on the Yangtze River. Neighbourhoods were head-deep in water and public transport came to a standstill. The ground levels of houses and apartment blocks were submerged, so kids would play together on the second floors of buildings, firing BB guns at dead animals floating in the water. While we had a watery vacation, our parents kept going to work. Wuhan residents have a perversely resilient streak: the more extreme a challenge, the more we rise to it.
When the time came for my friend to leave on 19 January, official reports from other provinces informed us the virus wasn’ t confined to Wuhan and that it could be transmitted between human carriers. Though supermarkets were still crowded with local people stocking up for the lunar new year celebrations, the atmosphere had become more tense. I was only back in town for the holidays, and wrote to my university in Australia about extending my leave.
The following day, I came down with cold-like symptoms. At the local community clinic, the doctor, the only person wearing a face mask, prescribed antibiotics, drugs to fight fever and traditional honeysuckle medicine. I didn’ t have a fever, so he wrote down my name and age, before informing a crowd of patients that the clinic had run out of face masks. Go take a look in the pharmacy next door, he suggested. “ What can we do to prevent getting sick, ” someone asked. The doctor lowered his mask and replied: “ Try positive thinking. ” Everyone laughed.
The shelves in the pharmacy stocked all types of face masks. I hesitated before selecting a handful at random. Another customer arrived shortly afterwards with a bulky bag to buy the rest of the stock. In Shanghai and Beijing, masks were already selling out – in Wuhan, they’ re now almost impossible to find. As new year approached, they became ubiquitous, like pear blossoms budding out of season.
A lot of people were coming down with colds – some real, some imaginary. I was due to meet friends for lunch in the city centre. Come over and drink down the virus, they said. None of us suggested cancelling. The restaurants were emptier than usual, and by the time we had finished drinking we were the only people left. Outside, as we walked across Liberation Park, we took off our masks. I’ d never seen the park so quiet. “ It’ s because it’ s raining today, ” my friend said, flipping up his collar.
At 2am on 23 January, Wuhan’ s residents learned that in eight hours’ time, buses, trains, flights and ferries would be suspended to and from the city. The airport, the train station and the metro were closed. The World Health Organization called the quarantine “ unprecedented in public health history ”. Concerned messages flooded my phone. I tossed a few effervescent vitamin tablets into a glass of water. My parents went shopping to stock up; goods were grabbed as soon as they made it on to the supermarket shelves. The supermarket closed in the morning, to reopen at an undetermined date. At the door a security guard touched everyone’ s head with a thermometer, as if giving them a blessing.
It’ s a fortnight since I met my friend at the Hankou station. The Huanan seafood market shut on 21 January. My neighbourhood is nearly deserted, and I’ m sleeping unusually well. The news is dominated by a combination of new year celebrations and selfless doctors and nurses venerated by Chinese media as frontline heroes. On social media the crisis has become a litmus test for the flaws and merits of the Chinese government. Neither side has changed position, but now they have new examples to invoke, new justifications for praising or criticising the state. I didn’ t want to write a word; Wuhan wasn’ t an argument for me to brandish in a debate.People in a quarantined city don’ t care about political point-scoring.
• Xiaoyu Lu is a research student, a travel writer and a frequent contributor to Chinese media
• This article was translated by Allen Young. It was first published on the Los Angeles Review of Books China Channel | general |
US airlines temporarily suspend flights to China amid coronavirus outbreak | American, Delta, and United Airlines announced they would temporarily suspend all flights to and from China amid growing concerns about the coronavirus outbreak. The news comes after the US State Department issued its highest travel warning last night against all non-essential travel to the country.
American Airlines said it would suspend all flights to and from the Chinese mainland through March 27th, though acknowledged that “ adjustments ” may be necessary. Delta said it would suspend flights between February 6th and April 30th. United Airlines said it will suspend flights between February 6th and March 28th.
By suspending their flights, the airlines are in effect taking pressure off the Trump administration to intervene. The State Department issued its highest-level warning not to travel to China Thursday, but so far the White House has declined to go the extra step and ground all flights to and from the country.
. @ Delta statement on cancelling US-China flights because of coronavirus pic.twitter.com/7kgKZuT2ep
Previously the airlines had just suspended some flights or reduced the overall number of flights they were operating in and out of China. British Airways became the first major carrier to suspend all flights to the country January 29th.
A few days later, American Airlines’ independent pilots union, Allied Pilots Association, sued for a temporary restraining order on all American Airlines flights between the US and China. The union also advised its members to decline trips to China amid the escalating outbreak. In a statement, the union said it was “ pleased ” by American’ s decision to suspend flights.
There have been over 9,700 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. The majority of the illnesses are in China, but cases have been reported in nearly two dozen other countries, including the US. No deaths related to the illness have been reported outside of China. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency earlier this week.
Update January 31st, 12:27PM ET: Added a statement from the Allied Pilots Association.
Update January 31st, 1:06PM ET: Added information about United Airlines suspending flights. | tech |
Amazon wants Alexa to feel normal, Google wants its assistant to feel nostalgic | Happy Friday — the Super Bowl is this weekend and some of the ads have begun to be released. The two that have struck me the most are from Google and Amazon, each taking a different tack to sell you on their respective intelligent assistants.
They are very different. Amazon got Ellen DeGeneres and Portia de Rossi leading off the joke about what life was like before Alexa, then people asking other people throughout history things they’ d normally ask Alexa. I was with it until there was a joke about refusing to erase the Nixon tapes which maybe was a little too on the nose given this past year’ s voice-recording scandals.
In any case, the motive is clear: make Alexa seem like an integral part of our lives now, like electricity or running water. But do that in a way that makes it seem lighthearted and fun, not oppressive. The ad mostly works on both of those levels. If you’ re Amazon and you want to try to affect people’ s feelings about Alexa, I don’ t know that you could possibly do better than associating a little of Ellen with Alexa.
Just, you know, it’ s still okay to ask real people questions.
You’ re reading Processor, a newsletter about computers by Dieter Bohn. Dieter writes about consumer tech, software, and the most important news of the day from The Verge. This newsletter delivers three to four times a week, some of which include longer columns. You can subscribe to Processor and learn more about it here. Processor is also a YouTube series with the same goal: providing smart and surprising analysis with a bit of humor. Subscribe to all of The Verge’ s great videos here!
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Google, meanwhile, went directly for the emotional jugular in a spot so blatantly designed to tug at your heartstrings it was immediately uncomfortable to the point where it felt manipulative. It felt that way all the more so because it was based on a real relative of a Google employee.
In the spot, an 85-year-old widower asks Google to bring up various memories he has of his late wife, then says “ remember when ” about those moments. Guess what? That’ s a little-known Google Assistant feature, asking it to remember things. It is very earnest if you think about how a computer could help, but also very dystopian if you think about sharing your fond remembrances with an uncaring algorithm instead of other actual humans.
This is very nearly a trend now, by the way. Apple also recently created an ad that played on our emotions and sympathies for a widower who was brought to a tearful moment through the medium of technology ( an iPad keynote presentation). Apple, at least, had the presence of mind to include actual human relatives in its ad to share that moment, instead of it being simply shared with a smart display.
Tying a product to deep emotions is an ad tale as old as time, I suppose. And I would argue that we are going to need to find better ways to talk about how we invest genuine sentiment, nostalgia, and loving affection into our digital lives. Nobody would bat an eye at a commercial with a Kodak print in the ‘ 80s pulling exactly these same tricks, but somehow when you integrate software it still feels different — even though both are technological products. It probably won’ t feel different for very long.
Speaking of Kodak, Google’ s ad reminds me of nothing so much as the famous Mad Men Don Draper Carousel pitch. Only now, instead of a slide projector, it’ s a smart display. I’ ll quote it in full below — tell me this couldn’ t be the pitch for Google’ s ad if you changed just a few words.
Well, technology is a glittering lure. But, uh, there is the rare occasion when the public can be engaged on a level beyond flash, if they have a sentimental bond with the product. My first job, I was in-house at a fur company, with this old-pro copywriter, a Greek named Teddy. Teddy told me the most important idea in advertising is new. Creates an itch. You simply put your product in there as a kind of calamine lotion. But he also talked about a deeper bond with the product. Nostalgia. It’ s delicate, but potent. Sweetheart. Teddy told me that in Greek, “ nostalgia ” literally means “ the pain from an old wound ”. It’ s a twinge in your heart far more powerful than memory alone. This device isn’ t a spaceship, it’ s a time machine. It goes backwards, forwards, takes us to a place where we ache to go again. It’ s not called the wheel. It’ s called the carousel. It lets us travel the way a child travels. Round and around, and back home again, to a place where we know we are loved.
Does it feel really crass and manipulative for a company to say that a technological product driven by machine-learning algorithms will help us remember our lost loved ones? That we will have some sort of emotional connection to an ephemeral piece of software instead of a physical token? Yes.
Is all of that inevitable? Is it in fact already happening every day? Also yes. We should probably figure out what that means.
If you’ re in need of a distraction from the news, several gaming publishers and developers have made their games cheap ( or in some cases free) to lighten the mood. We’ ve pulled together all of the timely discounts on games for your phone, PC, and gaming console right here. The list includes titles like Alto’ s Odyssey ( iOS, Android), Life is Strange ( PS4, Xbox One), The Sims 4 ( PC), and more.
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└ AT & T tried to buy out the streaming wars — and customers are paying for it
Good news: you no longer have to sign up for a two-year contract that subsidizes the cost of your very expensive smartphone.
Bad news: you are subsidizing AT & T’ s harebrained scheme to turn into a media conglomerate that turns 5G subscribers into HBO Max watchers and vice versa.
└ Amazon says it has more than 150 million Prime members after huge holiday season
It occurred to me today that Amazon Prime is also a kind of infrastructure service that includes hidden costs for video content.
└ Here’ s what you need to watch the Super Bowl in 4K HDR
Good story from Cameron Faulkner. The whole story is way more complicated than it should be! It’ s also low-key a win for Amazon, because the short answer to “ how do you get the best Super Bowl stream? ” is “ get a Fire TV. ”
└ Twitch and Caffeine are hosting their own Super Bowls before the big game
Bijan Stephen:
If you squint, the Twitch Rivals tournament makes sense in terms of negotiating a new, better deal with the NFL; it can’ t have escaped the league’ s notice that a lot of its players — who are young and internet-literate — are interested in streaming, either professionally or personally.
└ Nintendo says it has no plans for a new Switch this year
No, the Animal Crossing-themed Switch doesn’ t count.
└ Huawei overtakes Apple in annual race to Samsung’ s smartphone crown
The jump is especially surprising given Huawei’ s continued presence on the USA’ s entity list, which prevents the company from installing Google’ s apps and services on its new devices, limiting their appeal outside of China. As a result, Huawei’ s main strength was in its home country. Counterpoint Research says China accounted for 60 percent of its sales.
└ Motorola’ s stylus-equipped handset appears in leaked photos
Apparently it’ s going to be the “ Moto G Stylus. ” The G line is Motorola’ s branding for low-end and mid-range phones. What this rumor tells us, then, is that this isn’ t quite going to be a heads-up competitor to Samsung’ s Galaxy Note and this isn’ t the “ flagship ” phone that Motorola promised to deliver this year.
Motorola teased the return to flagships back when the Razr launched, but so far as I know that high-end phone hasn’ t leaked yet. That either means Motorola has done an incredible job keeping it under wraps or that it isn’ t likely to hit stores imminently. My money’ s on the latter.
└ Samsung’ s delayed Galaxy Book S will arrive on February 13th
More than other companies, Samsung announces major products and then just goes radio silent on them. Exhibit A: the Bixby Cauldron Smart Speaker. Glad to see this ARM-based laptop finally getting released, then, but very curious about the hold-up. Also very curious to see how Qualcomm’ s 8CX processor holds up without the custom enhancements that are present on its variant in the Surface Pro X.
└ OnePlus just took a big step toward supporting wireless charging in future phones
Earlier this year on The Vergecast, Lau commented that even 10W fast wireless charging was too slow and “ not worth it ” compared to the wired fast-charging Warp Charge that OnePlus’ current phones offer.
Guess he changed his mind.
└ Today, NASA turns off a space telescope that peered into the extra cold Universe
The satellite was designed to last less than five years. It has lasted 17. It could keep going but there’ s no funding for it. Seems like a tragic mistake.
└ The Hummer is coming back as a 1,000-horsepower electric truck
While there are plenty of electric SUVs already on the road, the electric truck market is still wide open. That won’ t be the case for long. Ford is working on an all-electric F-150 that it promises will be just as capable a truck as people have come to expect from its most popular nameplate, and Tesla’ s Cybertruck will serve as an option for more contrarian customers. A number of startups are entering the space, too. Most notably, Michigan’ s Rivian plans to release its luxury electric pickup truck later this year. Others, like Bollinger, Karma, and Lordstown Motors, are all trying to be among the first to sell electric pickup trucks as well.
└ Apple’ s redesigned maps are now available for all US users
If you’ re an iPhone user, you should give Apple Maps another shot.
└ Early iPhone hit SpellTower gets reimagined a decade later
First game in a while that has a shot at replacing Holedown as my subway game.
└ I love this: This Untitled Goose Game app turns your Windows PC into pure mayhem
└ World Health Organization declares global public health emergency over coronavirus outbreak
└ Pilots just sued American Airlines to force a halt to China flights
| tech |
In-house insight: How the Reuters Graphics team works | As part of our new series about in-house design teams, Simon Scarr, deputy editor of Reuters Graphics talks visualising catastrophe, global communication and Star Wars.
“ Just because a story is big doesn’ t mean that it’ s visual, or that it merits a response from us, ” Simon Scarr tells Design Week. “ We try to work on stories that really need our work — where the visual aspects are essential to the understanding. ”
Scarr is the deputy editor of the Reuters Graphics, the news agency’ s in-house graphics team that creates and distributes graphics to its clients all over the world. Recent visuals have covered the outbreak of the
, aiming to convey the scale of Australia’ s bushfires, which have so far razed 103,000 sq km of land ( an area the size of South Korea).
We speak to Scarr about how the team tailors content to clients, keeps up with the news cycle and stays inventive.
The team publishes graphics to Reuters.com and distributes content to clients internationally. Reuters is a news agency, which media and corporate companies from all over the world subscribe to. This means that the focus must have “ global or at least regional appeal ”. “ As much as a mayor’ s race in Spokane may be of huge interest for that community, it won’ t play on the global scale, ” Scarr says.
It means they must always consider the “ end user of the work ”, which is not necessarily a reader. A client might be a newspaper, but it could also be a company with an online product. That means that the team must produce a file that is easy to edit, for individual client’ s use. “ We have to go one step beyond thinking how something will look in the window of a web browser, ” Scarr explains. It has to be done “ in a way that’ s easy to understand if someone if picking these files apart and editing them ”.
Illustrations for the Hong Kong protests. Courtesy of Reuters
Another consideration is language. Because of the agency’ s international focus, not all clients use the English language, so the graphics and presentations have to be built in a way that is easy to translate. And although digital is a focus, many clients still have a printed product. A print client might want a static map or a series of static charts, Scarr says. “ We would never send out a large interactive file and expect a print client to pick that apart, ” he adds. “ Everything has the customer in mind. ”
Most importantly, it’ s the “ visual merit ” of a story that matters. Scarr says a question that’ s often asked among the team is: “ Will the visuals add value, or can the reader understand this story just as well without them? ”
Scarr is based in Singapore, but the graphics team has desks in New York, London, and Bangalore. There are around 20 members in the entire team. Each desk tends to focus mostly on their region ( divided by AMERS, EMEA, and APAC), but there is some collaboration on stories with “ global elements ” and pre-planned major events,
( with floating Bill Gates’ faces to show the number of years the Microsoft founder has attended the annual Swiss conference). The 2020 Tokyo Olympics coverage will be a joint effort between all bureaus.
“ Cross-region collaboration can also be driven by pairing up particular skillsets, data-heads, cartographers, illustrates and codes to work together, ” Scarr says. “ We think of ourselves as one large team and have communication channels that make it easy for us to share work, discuss ideas and solicit feedback, regardless of where we are in the world. ”
That also means working with the entire newsroom. Most of the team are reporters by trade, Scarr says — although he is an exception, having gained a diploma in Newspaper Design and Information Graphics. But having access to the Reuters newsroom — with reports on the ground and investigative journalism — means that the team can work with an enviable variety of datasets.
The visual showing the edited police procedures manual. Courtesy of Reuters
showed changes the police made to their guidelines on the use of force in the run up to October’ s violence. Discovered by a reporter at the Hong Kong bureau — “ a story by itself ”, Scarr says — the information then became part of a “ bigger immersive project ”. The team highlighted in yellow all the additions the police made ( such as suggestions of pepper spray, tear gas and water cannons as law enforcement) and strike-throughs for removed phrases. For example, the framework of actions against police by assailants that were considered aggressive changed from, “ Physical assault not intended to cause serious bodily injury ” to “ Physical assault to cause or likely to cause bodily injury to others ”, significantly loosening police restrictions.
Illustration of the weapons used during the Hong Kong protests. Courtesy of Reuters
Scarr says while the team is “ open to experimentation ” in terms of new technology, there’ s a regular suite of programmes it uses. Adobe Illustrator is prime among them, as well as QIS or ArcGIS for mapping and plotting map layers and Cinema 4D for 3-D work. D3.js is used for a lot of the data visualisation.
When it comes to coming up with ideas for the visuals, the process is less linear. “ Truthfully, we often don’ t know the best way to visualise something until we start trying to do it, ” Scarr says. “ For most of the pieces we do, there is a sad trail of trial and error. ”
Drowning in plastic: Visualising the world’ s addiction to single-use plastic bottles. Around the world, almost 1 million are purchased every minute. The majority end up in the environment, landfill sites, or oceans around the world.
But just as great ideas can end up as mediocre visuals, often the simplest data makes the most impactful graphic.
came from a simple fact: In 2019, almost 1 million plastic bottles were purchased every minute. It shows a human figure being ‘ drowned’ in plastic bottles, with a timer that counts how many plastic bottles have been sold since the page was opened.
As you scroll down, more graphics show the quantity by hour ( at which point Rio de Janeiro’ s Christ the Redeemer would have been covered) and by day — when 1.3bn bottles would pile up to half the size of the Eiffel Tower. In ten years, 4 trillion bottles have been sold, enough to cover the city of Manhattan.
Visualisation showing the amount of plastic humans inadvertently consumer. Courtesy of Reuters
The team is aware that projects are likely to be shared on social media, and so should look good. Illustrations for the Hong Kong weapons piece were done in-house in Singapore by Marco Hernandez, lending a hand-drawn illustrative style that contrasts with the more-realistically rendered models of bullets and weapons.
A good news sense is crucial. The biggest story in the world might not be on the pages the day after, and Scarr says it would not be worth it to commit time to visualise these. It’ s also possible to follow stories as they break. The recent coverage of Coronavirus — the respiratory illness that has spread from Wuhan, China — is a good example of this. First there was a global map charting the outbreak of cases, then a chart with pending cases against deaths and recoveries and another map of mainland China with localised cases. “ As that story continues to grow, ” Scarr says, “ you spot more angles to look at and more interesting ideas. ”
Visualising the scale of plastic bottle use. Courtesy of Reuters
It also requires being selective, sometimes disapprovingly so. “ There are unlimited possibilities for visual story-telling and with unlimited resource we would probably try to do them all, ” he says. “ But the fact of the matter is, we are a moderately sized team trying to cover the entire world, so we can only really engage on a tiny fraction of the projects we would like to. ”
Scarr is sure that things might change with the advent of virtual and augmented reality — “ there’ s a progression in how people are absorbing content, ” he says. But the team has to think about how widespread that technology is. “ We’ re not aggressively working on projects using that technology right now, but we do discuss new ways of tackling projects, especially with sports. ” Right now, it’ s simplicity that’ s key: People are used to scrolling down through stories, so the interactive graphics often work with this motion.
The Star Wars graphic, which shows how man lightsaber strikes characters made against each other during the films. Courtesy of Reuters
Sometimes the graphics team dabble outside of serious news into lighter stories.
, published on the release of the 2019’ s The Rise Of Skywalker, showing the number of lightsaber strikes made by each characters in the science fiction saga. The statistics were visualised in signature blue, red and greens of the weapons. ( Mark Hamill, the actor who played Luke Skywalker liked the story on Twitter.) The team has also published graphics for the Oscars, using different shades of gold to represent nominations earned by films.
Scarr hints that there are more of these projects to come — including a recurring idea about the proliferation of mangoes — and not simply because they are popular online. “ It’ s a welcome change of pace after covering the negativity or catastrophic events that often drive the news agenda, ” he says. | business |
Design Shanghai and Festival of Design postponed due to coronavirus | Design Shanghai, the biggest contemporary design show in China, said it was moving the fair to May `` to ensure the welfare and safety of visitors to our show ''.
has scrapped plans for its Festival of Design conference after `` carefully evaluating the situation and potential risks. '' The event will return in March 2021.
The two high-profile events are among an increasing number of industry events affected by the virus, which has so far claimed 213 lives in China.
Shenzhen International Furniture Fair, which was due to take place from 18 to 21 March, announced it has postponed its dates to June.
The Department of Commerce of Guangdong Province and Guangzhou Municipal Commerce Bureau announced the suspension of all large trade events `` to ensure health and safety of all participants ''.
International Furniture Fair, which was due to take place in Guangzhou from 18 to 21 March, is among events affected.
, due to take place in Hong Kong from 19 to 21 March. The fair has yet to announce a decision.
was scheduled to take place from 12 to 15 March at the Shanghai World Expo Exhibition and Convention Centre.
It will now take place in the same location from 26 to 29 May, assuming that the virus has been contained by then.
`` After careful consideration and advice, we have made the difficult decision to postpone Design Shanghai to ensure the welfare and safety of visitors to our show, our exhibitors and our team, '' said Design Shanghai director Zhuo Tan.
`` We are grateful to have confirmed new dates in the same venue with the same layout so as not to compromise the quality and success of the fair, '' she continued.
`` We appreciate the show of support that we have received from the design community and our partners during this time. ''
The organisers of Design Shanghai made the decision in consultation with the Chinese government and local authorities, as well as the fair partners, venue and local team. Exhibitors were notified on 30 January.
Launched in 2014 by Media 10, Design Shanghai has become one of the region's most highly acclaimed shows for the design market. The fair was sold to Clarion Events in June 2019.
Neri & Hu told Dezeen they had decided `` with great disappointment '' to cancel the 2020 edition of Festival of Design.
The third edition of the annual conference, which invites architects from around the world to deliver lectures, was due to be held in Shanghai at the same time as Design Shanghai.
`` It is with great disappointment that we have to inform all related parties on this unexpected decision, but it seems to be the best course of action at this time, setting the health and safety of our guests and attendees as our top priority, '' said Neri & Hu's Rossana Hu and Lyndon Neri.
`` We shall resume the Festival of Design in Spring 2021, but for now, we pray for those whose health is affected by the virus outbreak and hope that the design community will be effective in offering our own contribution to the on-going relief efforts, '' they added.
The first case of flu-like coronavirus infection was detected in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, on 31 December. Efforts to contain the virus have failed, with almost 10,000 cases reported in China so far and infections reported around the world.
The World Health Organization yesterday declared the outbreak a global emergency.
in a bid to contain and treat patients suspected of contracting the coronavirus.
The 25,000-square-metre Huoshenshan facility in Wuhan is expected to be in operation by 3 February, while a second 1,600-bed hospital called Leishenshan is set to be ready by 5 February. | business |
Sexual assaults rise at US military academies: Pentagon | Hi, what are you looking for?
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Incidence of sexual assault in US military academies rose again last year, the Pentagon said Thursday, despite efforts to combat the problem.
During the 2018-2019 school year, there were 149 sexual assaults officially reported to authorities at three military academies -- where students prepare for futures as military officers -- compared to 117 during the previous school year, marking an increase of more than 25 percent, the Pentagon said in a report.
This year's count only covered sexual assault cases reported to authorities, which the Pentagon says makes it difficult to determine if the rise in cases is due to better reporting or if sexual assaults did indeed occur more frequently than the year before.
Every two years, the nearly 13,000 students at the three schools -- the army's US Military Academy at West Point, New York, the Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland and the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado -- are also able to fill out anonymous questionnaires about sexual assaults that were not reported to authorities, including cases of sexual harassment or unwanted sexual contact.
This report did not include results from the questionnaires.
West Point counted the most student cases, with 57 sexual assaults reported, and the Naval Academy counted the fewest reports at 33. There were 40 cases of sexual assault reported at the Air Force Academy. The rest of the reports came from non-student cases.
`` This report is a reflection of what we already know, '' said retired Colonel Don Christensen, former Air Force prosecutor and head of the organization Protect Our Defenders. `` The Pentagon has repeatedly failed to address the sexual assault crisis gripping its ranks and, as a result, the problem continues to grow. ''
`` Year after year, military leadership has lauded a focus on prevention despite zero evidence that preventative measures are working. In fact, the opposite is true, '' he said.
Christensen called out the Pentagon's lack of `` military justice reform '' in not putting sexual assault cases `` in the hands of professionals. ''
`` Their continued obstruction of reform has led to a dramatic increase in sexual assaults and harassment, not only affecting those who bravely serve in our military, but its next generation of leaders as well, '' he said.
Incidence of sexual assault in US military academies rose again last year, the Pentagon said Thursday, despite efforts to combat the problem.
During the 2018-2019 school year, there were 149 sexual assaults officially reported to authorities at three military academies — where students prepare for futures as military officers — compared to 117 during the previous school year, marking an increase of more than 25 percent, the Pentagon said in a report.
This year’ s count only covered sexual assault cases reported to authorities, which the Pentagon says makes it difficult to determine if the rise in cases is due to better reporting or if sexual assaults did indeed occur more frequently than the year before.
Every two years, the nearly 13,000 students at the three schools — the army’ s US Military Academy at West Point, New York, the Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland and the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado — are also able to fill out anonymous questionnaires about sexual assaults that were not reported to authorities, including cases of sexual harassment or unwanted sexual contact.
This report did not include results from the questionnaires.
West Point counted the most student cases, with 57 sexual assaults reported, and the Naval Academy counted the fewest reports at 33. There were 40 cases of sexual assault reported at the Air Force Academy. The rest of the reports came from non-student cases.
“ This report is a reflection of what we already know, ” said retired Colonel Don Christensen, former Air Force prosecutor and head of the organization Protect Our Defenders. “ The Pentagon has repeatedly failed to address the sexual assault crisis gripping its ranks and, as a result, the problem continues to grow. ”
“ Year after year, military leadership has lauded a focus on prevention despite zero evidence that preventative measures are working. In fact, the opposite is true, ” he said.
Christensen called out the Pentagon’ s lack of “ military justice reform ” in not putting sexual assault cases “ in the hands of professionals. ”
“ Their continued obstruction of reform has led to a dramatic increase in sexual assaults and harassment, not only affecting those who bravely serve in our military, but its next generation of leaders as well, ” he said.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
There is no stated power in the US Constitution to regulate human reproduction.
A small dog looking at a christmas tree which has colored lights. Source - Trogain, CC SA 4.0.If you are having trouble finding a...
The hunt for answers - like whether the Omicron variant will trigger new waves of infection.
The new Omicron coronavirus variant has a high number of mutations which the WHO believes may make it more transmissible or resistant to vaccines...
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Q & A: The plant-based battle is in your supply chain ( Includes interview) | Hi, what are you looking for?
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With the plant-based market now valued at $ 4.5 billion, and more food retailers offering meat alternatives, this shift poses new considerations for food safety in the supply chain.
To keep up with high consumer demand, the organic supply chain must innovate to track inventory, provide transparency into its plant-based products and maintain food safety compliance. By implementing track-and-trace technology like embedded IoT sensors and automation tools, brands can optimize their plant-based supply chain and keep up with rapid growth.
This means the food industry needs to prepare its supply chain to handle the growing demand of plant-based products. To learn more, Digital Journal caught up with Joe Scioscia, VP of Sales at VAI.
Digital Journal: How big is the plant-based food market set to become?
Joe Scioscia: While many suppliers and retailers have been offering meat alternatives for a while, the plant-based industry has recently taken off, due to the boom of Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat. The market is now valued at $ 4.5 billion, and more food retailers and restaurant chains have entered the game with their own offerings. This shift poses new challenges for the food supply chain, considering restaurant and grocery suppliers are now sourcing plant-based products and ingredients – further testing the global food industry.
While this might pose new factors for the supply chain, the plant-based boom is only set to get bigger as more people want healthier, sustainable diets. Many restaurants and chains are putting big bets on plant-based options, even if for a limited time, and we’ ll see more of these product lines roll out in 2020.
DJ: What is driving this lifestyle change?
Scioscia: Today’ s consumers are more aware of how their habits impact the world, in addition to their bodies, whether this means transitioning to more vegetarian-friendly alternatives or wanting to live more sustainability. Both of these lifestyle changes are fueling the plant-based market, which is then driving the food industry to quickly adapt to their consumers’ new diets. The desire for sustainable options also comes with a demand for more transparency into the food industry, including farm to fork and organic options and the ability for consumers to trace products back to their origin. All of this is influencing food supply chains to provide this transparency and pledge to offer more sustainable and healthy options for their customers.
DJ: What are the major supply chain challenges for plant-based and organic foods?
Scioscia: The major challenges for plant-based and organic foods is ensuring food safety compliance at every step of the process. The desire for supply chain transparency goes hand in hand with preventing food-borne illnesses, which are still major challenges for businesses. A plant-based alternative, for example, might source over 10 different plant ingredients – each with their own temperature and handling instructions that have to be strictly followed. This means that producers, suppliers, and retailers have to communicate at every step to make sure the product is fresh and safe to consume. While the industry has made huge strides towards reducing food-borne illnesses, the food industry is also more complex today, which is presenting some new safety challenges.
DJ: What are the main parameters that need to be assessed?
Scioscia: The main parameters that organizations must assess are FDA food safety considerations under the Food Safety Modernization Act ( FSMA), which lays out specific guidelines for handling products to prevent food-borne illnesses. To address these parameters and the challenges outlined in the previous question, food suppliers and distributors have turned to technology such as an ERP food solution. Applications such as track and trace and inventory planning allow businesses to manage their products in real-time and automatically control things like temperature and route management. An ERP system with food parameters built in can make the difference for many of these suppliers and allow for full visibility into all processes – which is extremely crucial for FSMA guidelines.
It’ s no longer an option to leave food-borne illnesses up to chance when we have the tools to create preventative systems that meet food safety regulations. As the supply chain becomes more complex with the addition of plant-based products, technology solutions will allow organizations to continue improving efficiencies to avoid costly recalls.
DJ; How important is digital media for this?
Scioscia: Digitization and technology are crucial in helping food suppliers and retailers improve transparency in the supply chain. For example, mobile insights are allowing workers to track and trace products in real-time and make smarter decisions about inventory. Mobile and analytic applications are also able to connect to a larger database to ensure everything is tracked at each point of the supply chain. Some bar-code applications might even eventually allow for products at the grocery store to be traced back to their origin with a quick picture, although this is still far away. For now, the plant-based boom showcases consumer demand for sustainability in food, and this trend has trickled into the supply chain. With technology and software solutions, organizations are better able to implement sustainable practices and communicate this to their customers.
DJ: Which types of companies are you working with?
Scioscia: VAI works with many food distributors and manufacturers across industries including candy & tobacco, meat, seafood, poultry, produce, bakery, dry goods, flavorings and spices, beverages, and frozen foods. Due to the regulatory requirements of the food sector, companies in the food supply chain require specific software applications, which is why they choose VAI.
Dr. Tim Sandle is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for science news. Tim specializes in science, technology, environmental, and health journalism. He is additionally a practising microbiologist; and an author. He is also interested in history, politics and current affairs.
The hunt for answers - like whether the Omicron variant will trigger new waves of infection.
Crime is raging across the country, from violent attacks to brazen shoplifting to mob “ smash and grab ” attacks.
The Omicron variant that causes COVID-19 likely acquired at least one of its mutations by picking up genetic material from another virus.
At its core, Zero Trust is all about authenticating and authorizing access policies that have been designed to provide the least privilege, for the...
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Gwyneth Paltrow’ s Netflix show slammed by UK's health chief | Hi, what are you looking for?
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NHS chief, Simon Stevens, was critical of Gwyneth Paltrow’ s Netflix show, “ the Goop Lab, ” a documentary series that premiered on January 24. His comments were made at an event Thursday at the University of Oxford on “ the impact of fake news on our lives. ”
The new show follows Paltrow and the team at her wellness brand Goop, exploring experimental health trends such as psychedelic therapy and energy “ exorcisms. ” Stevens cited the series in his remarks, saying the Goop brand gives prominence to “ quacks, charlatans and cranks ” in promoting untested treatments.
He argued that Paltrow’ s brand “ peddles psychic vampire repellent, says chemical sunscreen is a bad idea and promotes colonic irrigation and DIY coffee enema machines, despite them carrying considerable risks to health. ” He added that British health authorities have issued a statement xaying there is no scientific evidence to support such claims, reports the Associated Press.
Misinformation undermines public health Stevens noted that while “ fake news ” is quite often associated with politics, it is also prevalent in the health and wellness sector, warning “ people’ s natural concern for their health … makes this particularly fertile ground for quacks, charlatans and cranks. ”
Stevens cited the recent surge in measles cases, a childhood illness that can be prevented with a vaccine. He highlighted the misinformation surrounding vaccinations, saying Russian social media bots and anti-vaccination rhetoric were undermining the public’ s confidence in essential vaccinations.
Misinformation has also helped to create panic on social media that includes unproven conspiracy theories over the novel coronavirus that has become a global health emergency.
Earlier this month, Goop attracted smirks for selling a $ 75 so-called vagina-scented candle, and in 2018, Goop was hit with penalties over “ unsubstantiated claims ” surrounding two of Goop’ s vaginal eggs and an essential oil-like product. The company agreed to pay $ 145,000 in penalties, reports CNN News.
Karen Graham is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for environmental news. Karen's view of what is happening in our world is colored by her love of history and how the past influences events taking place today. Her belief in man's part in the care of the planet and our environment has led her to focus on the need for action in dealing with climate change. It was said by Geoffrey C. Ward, `` Journalism is merely history's first draft. '' Everyone who writes about what is happening today is indeed, writing a small part of our history.
The number has risen by some 20 percent over the past year largely to crackdowns on the media in Myanmar, Belarus and Hong Kong.
Improving IT services to meet the needs of remote workers is key to employee retention, according to a leading expert.
Russia rejected calls to tighten domestic violence legislation despite a European court ruling.
High winds threw dumped roof tops and other debris onto roads. Source - Johnston Police Department - Iowa.The United States on Wednesday registered the...
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Q & A: How you hold your phone can help protect it from hackers ( Includes interview) | Hi, what are you looking for?
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According to the CEO of Deep Labs, Scott Edington, such activities are becoming part of a vastly improved behavioral-based security approach that is taking ID verification to new levels. Behavior-based security is starting to look much more at how users hold their phones, how hard they press the buttons, and how quickly they might type.
Digital Journal spoke with Scott Edington about how artificial intelligence and machine learning can help to create user ‘ personas’, that red flag if your phone is being used even slightly differently than how you use it.
Digital Journal: What are some of the biggest security concerns affecting the financial sector?
Scott Edington: Well known data breaches, the increasing sophistication of cyber threats, and the near ubiquity of mobile devices have created a challenging dynamic for those organizations requiring the traditionally conflicting deliverables of a high degree of certainty for authentication and a reduction in consumer friction in order to maximize payment approvals.
Current fraud screening capabilities simply were not built to leverage contextual and behavioral information and as a result have adopted a ‘ hair trigger’ on declines, introducing material transactional friction without a commensurate improvement in fraud detection.
Revenue loss due to actual fraud was $ 28 billion in 2018. False declines, transactions that should have been approved but were not, were $ 330 billion. With the proliferation of digital wallets, in-app purchases, and the ongoing migration of consumer purchases through siloed merchant networks, these staggering false decline rates continue to grow exponentially. The ultimate goal for all parties in the Payments ecosystem is to increase the approval rates of legitimate transactions, thereby increasing revenue.
DJ: How did you come to form Deep Labs?
Edington: I’ ve been fortunate in my career to be afforded the unique opportunity to conceptualize, create and enable some of the most advanced capabilities in the Defense, Intelligence, and Payments spaces. This unique vantage point has provided a view into the latest advanced persistent threats and ultimately how to combat them. Deep Labs was founded with the core belief that extreme-scale machine intelligence coupled with the myriad of ‘ sensor’ data now available has led to a confluence enabling true context-aware, artificial intelligence risk systems capable of combating the next generation of advanced persistent threats to be created.
DJ: What does a behavioral-based security approach involve?
Edington: At Deep Labs we believe the notion of ‘ context’ is extremely important. An actor’ s behavior can change based on a myriad of factors – location, social construct, weather, seasonality, etc. At a glance, a human being is capable of discerning context and then altering their decisions based on that new-found knowledge.
A machine intelligence backed behavioral-based security approach enables the inference capabilities of a human being with a machine’ s ability to discern signals from noise at extreme scale. These signals can range from how a user interacts with their mobile device, to what and where financial transactions are made, all the way to how a user holds their phone or walks throughout their day. This enables a persona-based intelligence® approach that is capable of understanding the context of a consumer in real-time, eliminating authentication and approvals friction, while reducing fraudulent behavior through its Persona-Based Intelligence® approach, enables its customers to fully understand the context of the consumer in real-time, eliminating authentication and approvals friction, while reducing fraudulent behavior.
DJ: What type of technology is required to support this approach?
Edington: From a broad perspective, extreme-scale compute platform coupled with advanced real-time learning and decisioning capabilities. Essentially, to successfully execute the approach, the technology needs to be capable of processing tens-of-millions of data points to arrive at signals that are immediately actionable in less than 5 milliseconds. This machine intelligence platform needs to be signal ‘ agnostic’ and capable of processing both static and dynamic signals to create a multi-dimensional and context-rich understanding of an actor’ s behavior.
DJ: Which types of companies do you work with?
Edington: Deep Labs works with the largest payment networks and financial institutions in the world. We have also deployed our solutions to the United States government.
DJ: What will be your next phase of development?
Edington: From a technology perspective we will continue to work on next generation capabilities that will enable our customers to provide a frictionless and hyper-personalized Payments experience. Organizationally, we are actively recruiting the best and the brightest to come join our team!
Dr. Tim Sandle is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for science news. Tim specializes in science, technology, environmental, and health journalism. He is additionally a practising microbiologist; and an author. He is also interested in history, politics and current affairs.
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'The Bay ' receives nine 2020 Indie Series Awards nominations | Hi, what are you looking for?
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The Bay created by Emmy winner Gregori J. Martin is vying for the coveted “ Best Drama Series, ” “ Best Supporting Actor in a Drama ” for Matthew Ashford, “ Best Supporting Actress in a Drama ” for Celeste Fianna, “ Best Guest Actor in a Drama ” for both Sean Blakemore and A Martinez, “ Best Ensemble in a Drama, ” “ Best Costume Design ” for Gabrielle Sciabbarrasi, as well as “ Best Production Design ” in the technical categories.
In addition, the make-up team for The Bay ( comprised of Ren Bray, Noreen Diani, Eric Kirker, Sosi Bournazyan, Shane Harris, Emily Isaac, Kirara Scranton, and Leyla Van Hassel) is nominated for the Indie Series Award for “ Best Makeup. ”
The Bay is now in its fifth season on Amazon Prime, where the latest episodes are available. These new episodes of Season 5 earned a glowing review from Digital Journal.
A Place Called Hollywood, which was written and directed by The Bay showrunner Gregori J. Martin also received nine 2020 Indie Series Awards nominations.
To learn more about The Bay, check out its official website and its Facebook page.
Markos Papadatos is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for Music News. Papadatos is a Greek-American journalist and educator that has authored over 16,000 original articles over the past 15 years. He has interviewed some of the biggest names in music, entertainment, lifestyle, magic, and sports. He is a five-time consecutive `` Best of Long Island '' winner, and in the past two years, he was honored as the `` Best Long Island Personality '' in Arts & Entertainment, an honor that has gone to Billy Joel six times.
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COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2021 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
Europe markets: Investors seek cause for optimism after virus sell-off | European stocks closed lower on Friday after the first two cases of the coronavirus, which has hammered markets this week, were confirmed in the U.K.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended the session 1% lower, with basic resources falling 1.7% to lead losses as all sectors and major bourses were in the red.
In a statement Friday, England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said that two patients had tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus and were in the care of the country's National Health Service ( NHS). A sixth case was confirmed in Germany by health officials in the southern state of Bavaria.
The coronavirus death toll has now hit 213 with confirmed cases rising to 9,692, according to Chinese health officials, while the World Health Organization on Thursday declared the outbreak a global health emergency. The U.S. also confirmed its first human-to-human transmission.
However, French diagnostics company Novacyt on Friday announced the launch of a test to identify the specific strain of coronavirus, sending its share price surging. U.S. biotech firm Vaxart then announced the initiation of a program to develop a vaccine.
Losses for European markets were deepened as initial GDP ( gross domestic product) growth estimates published Friday revealed that the euro zone economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter of 2019, while core inflation slowed, which will likely concern the European Central Bank ( ECB).
Quarter-on-quarter, euro area GDP rose 0.1% for a 1.0% year-on-year gain, according to Eurostat, below Reuters polling estimates of 0.2% and 1.1% respectively.
Asian stocks were mixed on Friday after Chinese manufacturing data met expectations, with Japan's Nikkei 225 leading gains which were contained by concerns over the coronavirus and its potential impact on the global economy. South Korea's Kospi plunged 1.35%.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower Friday as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak weighed on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led losses, tumbling 1.5%.
Friday is a landmark day for Europe as the U.K. is set to officially leave the European Union at 11:00 p.m. London time, ending a 3 1/2 year exit process, but beginning an 11-month transitional period, during which time British and European leaders will attempt to hash out a new trade agreement.
Both S & P and Moody's warned on Thursday that Britain's credit rating would be under pressure if a post-Brexit trading relationship limits U.K. access to the European single market.
Shares of antivirus developer Avast surged 7.6% on Friday to lead gains on the Stoxx 600. The stock rebounded from heavy losses in the previous session, which came after the company closed a subsidiary caught in the middle of a data privacy scandal.
Signify shares climbed 7%, while SES stock jumped 5.8% on the back of rising fourth-quarter profit. Danske Bank rose 4% after a report suggested U.S. authorities may struggle to fine the lender over money laundering.
At the other end of the European benchmark, Spain's Banco de Sabadell plunged almost 14% after reporting a surprise fourth-quarter net loss, while British broker Hargreaves Lansdown tumbled 8.2% as new asset growth slowed following the downfall of star fund manager Neil Woodford.
Electrolux stock slid 2.3% after missing fourth-quarter earnings expectations and issuing a warning over potential costs arising from the coronavirus outbreak. | business |
Rates plunge in January and part of the yield curve inverts again | The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was on track to post its biggest monthly drop since August as the deadly coronavirus fanned recession fears.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell slightly to 1.548% Friday. The yield has tumbled nearly 40 basis points in January, on pace for its biggest monthly decline in five months.
The 10-year yield also dipped below the three-month Treasury rate of 1.552%, inverting a key part of the yield curve.
The so-called yield curve inversion has been a strong sign since 1950 that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. This part of the yield curve is also closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of an economic downturn.
Markets have been spooked by the outbreak, with investors trying to assess the potential economic fallout.China's National Health Commission confirmed on Friday that there have been 9,692 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 213 deaths.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) recognized the deadly pneumonia-like virus as a global health emergency on Thursday, citing concern that the outbreak continues to spread to other countries with weaker health systems.
On the data front, personal income for December disappointed on the margin with a 0.2% month-over-month increase, versus a 0.3% growth anticipated. On the other hand, personal spending matched estimates at 0.3% last month.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI) for January and a final reading of consumer sentiment for January will follow slightly later in the session.
—CNBC's Sam Meredith and Matt Clinch contributed to this article.
| business |
Japan to step up coronavirus action as Abe takes flak for response | In the face of growing criticism over Japan’ s response to the coronavirus epidemic, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Friday that foreign nationals who have been to Hubei province — where the virus’ s epicenter of Wuhan is located — in the 14 days prior to their arrival in Japan will be denied entry starting Saturday.
The decision, which will also deny entry to holders of Chinese passports issued in the province, came as opposition parties and some members of the ruling bloc criticized the government’ s plan to bill evacuees from Wuhan for their flights home and hotel arrangements that forced two evacuees, who were later diagnosed with the coronavirus, to share a room with people who weren’ t infected.
Abe also said the government is considering subsidizing airfares for the charter flights out of the virus’ s epicenter. He also said the government will move up the implementation of an ordinance naming the virus a “ designated infectious disease ” to Saturday.
“ The government will continue to make decisions and implement necessary measures without hesitation as our highest priority is to protect Japanese citizens’ lives and health, ” the prime minister said.
His surprise announcement comes after the World Health Organization declared the virus a global public health emergency.
Seventeen people had been infected with the virus in Japan as of Friday, including a female tour bus guide in her 20s in Chiba Prefecture.
The ordinance, adopted by the Cabinet on Tuesday, was initially supposed to take effect on Feb. 7. It lays the legal groundwork to deny the entry to Japan of foreign nationals infected with the virus and forcefully hospitalizing those who test positive.
The government had originally planned to charge returnees from Wuhan about ¥80,000. But even some ruling party Liberal Democratic Party heavyweights, including Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, exhorted the government to pick up the tab.
A third charter flight from Wuhan landed at Haneda Airport on Friday morning carrying 149 people. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that 10 of them are feeling ill.
Later Friday, the health ministry said that two have been diagnosed with the virus.
With the conclusion of the third charter flight, the top government spokesman said, most Japanese residing in Wuhan who wished to come back had done so. So far, 565 Japanese have returned via the three flights.
Suga added that about 140 Japanese, mostly from outside of Wuhan, are still hoping to return home, but he didn’ t mention the possibility of a fourth charter flight. Still, he emphasized that the government will bring all Japanese home who wish to leave.
The prime minister also announced Friday the government’ s infectious disease warning for China would be raised to level two out of a maximum of four. A level two warning advises people to “ avoid travel that is not urgent or is not necessary. ”
The infectious disease alert for Hubei province, where the outbreak began, had already been raised to level three, which warns against any travel to the region.
At the Diet, opposition parties have spent most of the week attacking Abe for scandals concerning controversial state-funded cherry blossom-viewing parties, the casino legalization plan and the spate of Cabinet resignations since a September reshuffle.
But with Abe revealing little new information and the opposition running out of steam on the matter, it has instead seized on the government’ s virus response as an opportunity to go on the offensive.
During Friday’ s session in the Lower House, Kazunori Yamanoi, an independent lawmaker, took up the issue that some Japanese who returned from Wuhan on Wednesday were forced to share hotel rooms provided by the government.
As a result, two people who showed no symptoms but later tested positive for the coronavirus were sharing rooms with other returnees.
Health minister Katsunobu Kato acknowledged fault in that matter but defended the government’ s measures so far.
The government has been under fire both at home and abroad for not quarantining citizens returning from Wuhan. It has said taking such forceful actions could violate human rights and has instead asked them to monitor and report their own health and stay home or in lodgings provided by the government for two weeks.
“ We aren’ t able to isolate or stop passengers ( forcefully), but we have to secure a space somewhere to create a situation essentially similar to isolation, ” Kato said. “ Besides, we can’ t manage ( people who have returned) if they are staying at separate locations … we do think some things were inadequate, so we are going to respond and to keep them in mind. ”
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stressed the government has done and will continue to do whatever it can to bring all Japanese citizens back who wish to return to Japan.
No other country has made three flights to bring its citizens home amid limited public transportation and airport operations in Wuhan, Motegi pointed out.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
What happened to the stock market on Friday: Coronavirus sparks sell-off to end January | The Dow plummeted 603.41 points, or 2.09%, to close at 28,256.03. The S & P 500 shed 1.77% to 3,225.52. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.59% to 9,150.94. Stocks ended January on a disappointing note after concerns around the deadly coronavirus intensified.
The Dow and S & P 500 lost their gains for January on Friday after China's National Health Commission confirmed on Friday that there have been nearly 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, with the death toll rising to more than 210. Airlines such as American, United and Delta announced they are curbing travel between China and the U.S. as fears around the sickness grew. The U.S. government also declared the virus a national health emergency. Investors added exposure to Treasury bonds, with the 30-year rate falling below 2%, a key level.
United shares fell nearly 4% while American Airlines and Delta slid 3.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Amazon, meanwhile, bucked the negative trend with a 7.4% surge after its quarterly results blew estimates out of the water.
Wall Street will be vigilant next week as any updates on the coronavirus surface. Google-parent Alphabet is set to release quarterly earnings Monday after the bell. Read more here.
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Australians in Hubei could miss evacuation flight because of transport shutdown | Hundreds of Australians trapped in the city of Wuhan could miss out on the government’ s proposed evacuation to Christmas Island as transport is shut down in Hubei province.
Elderly Australians and pregnant women also have health concerns about being held for 14 days in the isolated island’ s former detention centre, due to its rudimentary health facilities. Christmas Island is located 2,600km from the Australian mainland in the Indian Ocean.
And Australian families with a mix of citizens and permanent residents could be split up.
Roughly 600 Australians in Wuhan and the Hubei province, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, have registered with the Australian government: about 150 of those have expressed an interest in being evacuated to Christmas Island, the Guardian understands.
Moko Yong, a photographer from Melbourne, said he was in contact with about 140 Australians in Wuhan and Hubei discussing the proposed plan. Yong has not yet decided if he will evacuate, and told Guardian Australia he was not personally worried about the new coronavirus.
But he said many others had growing concerns.
“ There are elderly people, children and also pregnant women who are facing more practical problems than us, ” he said, speaking through a translator. “ They are probably facing the problem of running out of medication, formula, milk powder because they probably did not plan to stay this long [ in Wuhan ].
“ In terms of getting onto Christmas Island, people have different views and it’ s a difficult decision for many people. But because there are elderly people and pregnant women, they are concerned about medical conditions on the island. ”
Christmas Island’ s medical facilities have been upgraded over the past year but they still lack an intensive care unit to treat critically ill people. Nor is there a maternity ward. Women on the island usually fly to Perth to give birth.
Guardian Australia spoke to two other Australians in Wuhan who were unsure if they would be able to get to the airport.
Yong said he knew of multiple Australians further out in Hubei, who were now effectively stranded.
“ It’ s very difficult, even for people in the city of Wuhan to travel to the airport … public transport has been stopped at the moment. There are people who have concerns about how to reach the airport by themselves.
“ If people live outside of Wuhan, in other areas of Hubei province, it would be even more difficult. Those stranded in their own village can’ t get out, ” he said.
“ The current situation is they are not allowed to get out of their village and no one can get into the village. We are waiting for the official announcement.
“ For those rural areas of Hubei, they can’ t even reach Wuhan, because the roads have all been closed. ”
Yong said there were “ definitely ” cases of families that could be split up in the evacuation.
“ There is someone who is currently in the rural area of Hubei, the parents are permanent residents, but their children were born in Australia so are Australian citizens. Under the arrangement only the child can be evacuated, but not the parents. ”
On Wednesday, the Australian prime minister announced plans to evacuate Australians and New Zealanders from Wuhan to Christmas Island on a chartered Qantas Boeing 747.
The plane proposed for the airlift has a capacity of 371 passengers: the evacuation would prioritise the “ isolated and vulnerable ” – including infants and the elderly – Scott Morrison said.
Japan, the US, and the UK have already brought planeloads of citizens out of the locked down province in central China, while other countries including France, India, and Indonesia have committed to extricating their citizens.
Australian evacuees will be quarantined on Christmas Island for 14 days before being transported to Perth. People who have been confirmed as having coronavirus, or who are symptomatic and suspected of having the virus, will not be able to fly.
Those who are evacuated will have to pay $ 1,000 for the cost of their transport and accommodation.
This, the government says, is consistent with previous government-run airlifts such as out of Lebanon in 2006, and Egypt in 2011. But this is being fiercely contested.
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd, foreign minister at the time of the Arab Spring and the Egyptian evacuation, said online: “ Morrison’ s claim that Labor charged Australians for tickets on charter flights out of Egypt during the 2011 uprising is an outright falsehood ”.
“ The cost ( about $ 3400 per person) was borne by the Government. Why is ‘ Scotty from Marketing’ slugging Aussies to get them out of Wuhan? ”
The prime minister Julia Gillard said in a media release “ the charter will be provided free of charge ”, and the then head of the department of foreign affairs and trade, Dennis Richardson, confirmed at Senate estimates the costs of the charter were all borne by the government.
Negotiations between Australian and Chinese officials are continuing – with particular focus on the issues of dual citizens and split families – but the Australian government’ s proposed airlift does not yet have permission from the Chinese government.
There are acute political sensitivities in China around foreign nationals being evacuated from the virus epicentre while its own citizens are kept quarantined. This would be amplified if some Chinese citizens – Australian permanent resident parents of an Australian citizen child for instance – were allowed to leave.
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said the airline had asked for volunteers to work on the Wuhan airlift and had been overwhelmed by staff willing to assist.
“ We have actually had 50 cabin crew vol which is enough to man it five times over. We are really proud of our people putting their hand up to help.
“ We have an aircraft ready to go and the government is working through getting the permits from the Chinese … You need a permit from the Chinese and that is [ negotiated ] government to government.
“ The government is also working through seeing what passengers want to take this service, making sure that there is enough interest. ”
Joyce said there would be additional precautions taken on board the flight, for passengers and crew.
“ There will a lot of precautions, there will be face masks. There will be for example meals and drinks laid out on the seats before the flight departs and there will be a lot of government officials on the aircraft to help manage the passengers. ”
The designation of Christmas Island as a quarantine centre has not been welcomed by all on the island. Shire president Gordon Thomson said the island was being treated like “ a leper colony ”.
“ Christmas Island remains a colony and is yet again getting the old regressive colonialist treatment from the great colonial power. Get lost Scotty. ”
The head of the Australian Medical Association, Dr Tony Bartone, said isolated Christmas Island was a poor clinical choice, as well as being insensitive to a cohort of people already “ under a lot of stress and fear and concern ”.
“ Remember, Australian Medical Assistance Teams ( Ausmat) are going into Christmas Island to provide the necessary solutions. It’ s not like Christmas Island has got the solution. They’ re ramping up their facilities and their resources with the teams coming in. So we can do that in a number of other places much more humanely. ”
Home affairs minister Peter Dutton defended the Christmas Island evacuation plan, saying it was designed to keep the broader population safe.
“ I can’ t clear a hospital in Sydney or Melbourne to accommodate 600 people. “ We don’ t have a facility otherwise that can take this number of people. I want to make sure that we keep Australians safe. ” | general |
Honda and Mitsubishi to delay restart of Wuhan plants amid virus outbreak | Honda Motor Co. said Thursday that it has decided to keep its automobile plants in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak of a new coronavirus, closed until Feb. 13.
The automaker earlier planned to keep the facilities offline through Sunday in line with the Lunar New Year holiday in China.
Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Motors Corp. plans to extend the closure period for its two facilities in Shanghai, including a research and development base, by seven days until Feb. 9, sources in the company said.
Japanese companies are scrambling to deal with the spread of the coronavirus as it is feared the prolonged effects of the outbreak will disrupt supply chains for their branches in China.
Honda has three plants in Wuhan that make models including its mainstay Civic, with their combined annual production capacity standing at 600,000 units.
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The three plants went offline on Jan. 23 for the Lunar New Year holiday.
A Honda public relations official said the company will decide whether to reopen the plants on Feb. 14 after monitoring the local situation.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Aluminum foil maker Reynolds leans on innovation to drive sales growth | Reynolds Consumer Products is best known for its aluminum foil and Hefty trash bags, but that could soon change.
The company's net sales in 2018 were $ 3.1 billion. More than a fifth of that revenue came from products that are less than three years old. CEO Lance Mitchell said that the company expects that the trend continued in 2019.
This year, Reynolds has more than 140 products in its development pipeline.
Mitchell gave the example of its slow cooker liners as a product that is driving revenue growth in an industry that has seen its organic sales growth slow in recent years. The plastic liners reduce the average cleaning time for a slow cooker from 10 to 15 minutes to about 8 seconds, he said. About 90% of consumers who try the liners out keep buying them.
New products also help Reynolds differentiate itself from private label brands, which have been eating into the sales of consumer giants.
Reynolds is also jumping on trends that appeal to younger consumers. The company makes YouTube videos and posts recipes for sheet-pan cooking. The Instagram friendly cooking technique involves making an entire meal — meat, vegetables and starches — on a single sheet pan. Mitchell said that the trend drives consumers to use its aluminum foil more frequently.
The company made its debut in the public markets on Friday, as the market was trading lower more broadly due to fears about the coronavirus outbreak. Despite the sell-off, Reynolds shares were jumping 8% in afternoon trading. The stock is trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker `` REYN. ''
Reynolds priced its initial public offering at $ 26 per share, making it the first company in 2020 to go public with a market value higher than $ 1 billion. It will be using the proceeds to pay down debt. | business |
5 things to know before the stock market opens January 31, 2020 | U.S. stock futures were lower on Friday as coronavirus headlines keep investors on edge. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swung from a 224-point loss to close up 124 points. Wall Street bounced off the lows after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency — but at the same time, did not recommend restricted travel to China. The WHO also said China had the situation under control. Also Friday, Dow component Caterpillar were down slightly in the premarket after the company's CEO warns about `` global economic uncertainty. '' The heavy equipment marker on Friday reported mixed fourth-quarter results. Dow stock Exxon Mobil also issued mixed quarterly results.
While the Dow and S & P 500 were tracking for declines at Wall Street's open on Friday, the Nasdaq was poised to buck the trend and move higher as shares of Amazon were surging 11% in the premarket. The e-commerce and cloud giant on Thursday smashed earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth quarter. Amazon is set to open above a $ 1 trillion market cap. Amazon first hit a $ 1 trillion market cap in September 2018 but went below that level after the stock market at the time tanked. Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet are all also above the $ 1 trillion threshold.
IBM shares jumped as much as 5% in the premarket after the company said cloud chief Arvind Krishna will become its 10th CEO, replacing Ginni Rometty, effective April 6. Rometty, who joined IBM in 1981, will remain executive chairman through the end of the year, when she will retire. During Rometty's tenure as CEO, which began in 2012, shares of IBM fell about 26%, compared with the S & P 500's advance of 160%. Jim Whitehurst, Red Hat's former CEO, is becoming IBM's president. IBM completed its $ 34 billion Red Hat acquisition in July.
Chinese health officials raised their numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases to over 9,800, with 213 deaths in China. Britain confirmed the first two cases of the coronavirus in the U.K., less than 24 hours after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global emergency. The U.S. confirmed its first person-to-person transmission of the virus — the husband of the Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. The State Department also warned against traveling to China.
The Senate is expected to vote on Friday on whether to call witnesses in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. If Democrats can persuade four senators to join them in supporting witnesses, the trial could proceed for weeks or months longer. If the GOP-majority Senate votes against witnesses, then the trial could quickly proceed to a final vote on whether to acquit Trump or remove him from office as soon as next week. Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said Thursday night she will break ranks and vote for witnesses. | business |
Coronavirus: Death toll hits 213. Britain, Russia report first cases | This live blog has ended. For more of CNBC's coverage on the coronavirus, read today's blog from CNBC's U.S. team.
All times below in Beijing time.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova told reporters on Friday that the country had confirmed its first two cases of the coronavirus.
The two people that contracted the virus were Chinese citizens who had been isolated, Golikova said, before adding all flights to China from Russia would be halted from 5 a.m. Beijing time on Saturday.
However, national airline Aeroflot will continue to operate as normal.
Singapore's health ministry has banned entry to all Chinese visitors and foreigners with a recent history of travel to China.
The move, which effectively shuts out the island's largest group of visitors, will take effect from Saturday. It is the first Southeast Asian country to implement a travel ban to Chinese travelers in order to contain the outbreak.
The ban exempts residents and long-term pass holders.
China's envoy to the United Nations said Friday that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases had risen to 9,809, up from 9,692 as reported earlier in the day.
Speaking through an interpreter in Vienna, Switzerland, China's Wang Qun said the number of deaths remained unchanged at 213.
Italy's government is poised to declare a state of national emergency, Reuters reported Friday citing a cabinet statement.
It comes shortly after the country confirmed the first two cases of the coronavirus. Speaking to reporters at a press conference on Thursday, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said two Chinese tourists visiting Italy had contracted the virus.
Italy's civil aviation authority has closed air traffic to and from China.
England's chief medical officer has confirmed the first two cases of the coronavirus in the U.K., less than 24 hours after the World Health Organization ( WHO) declared the outbreak a global emergency.
`` We can confirm that two patients in England, who are members of the same family, have tested positive for coronavirus, '' Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said in a statement on Friday.
The patients are receiving specialist care from the state-run National Health Service ( NHS), Whitty said, before adding that medical staff would use `` tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus. ''
Mongolia's government announced Friday that it would close all ports of entry into and from China until March 2., as the country seeks to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak.
Mongolia has reportedly given its citizens until Feb. 6 to return home. The country, which is landlocked between Russia and China, has not yet reported any cases of the virus.
These are the airlines which have suspended all flights to China amid the outbreak: Air France ( Until Feb. 9), British Airways, Air Seoul, Egyptair, Lion Air, Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines and Austrian Airlines ( until end February), Kenya Airways ( till further notice) and Vietjet ( effective Feb. 1).
Airlines which suspended some flights, or reduced capacity:
- Singapore Airlines: reduced capacity on flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen and Chongqing.
- American Airlines: suspended flights from Los Angeles to Bejing and Shanghai from Feb. 9 to March 27.
- Delta Airlines: reducing flights to 21 a week from 42, from Feb. 1 to April 30.
- Cathay Pacific: progressively reducing capacity to and from mainland China by 50% or more, from Jan. 30 till end March.
- Finnair: suspended flights to Nanjing and Beijing until end March.
- Turkish Airlines: reducing frequency of flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Xian from Feb. 5 to Feb. 29.
The Shanghai government announced that from Sunday onward, residents must register to buy face masks. Each household will be initially limited to buying five masks.
The Chinese government will send chartered planes to bring back Hubei residents who are overseas, according to state media, citing the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. That's in view of the `` practical difficulties '' that residents in Wuhan or Hubei — the epicenter of the outbreak — have been encountering overseas, the ministry said, according to the report.
In the latest update, it has dispatched two planes to fly back Wuhan citizens from Bangkok, Thailand, and Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, according to a Reuters report.
Pakistan has suspended all flights into and from China immediately, until Feb. 2, according to a Reuters report.
Japan's Prime Ministry Shinzo Abe said Friday that the government is raising its infectious disease advisory level for the whole of China to 2, which means citizens should avoid non-urgent trips to the country.
It has already told its citizens not to take any trips to China's Hubei, the epicenter of the virus outbreak.
The government earlier also said it would refuse entry to anyone who is infected. The country now has 14 confirmed cases.
Top chipmaker SK Hynix warned that a prolonged coronavirus outbreak could pose a threat to its chip production, and said it would bring down its annual investment after it announced a sharp fall in quarterly profit on Friday. It said it is preparing a contingency plan
The U.S. Department of State raised its travel advisory for China from Level 3 to Level 4, which means `` do not travel to China. '' That came just days after it changed its alert level to 3 on Monday, which means `` reconsider travel to China due to the novel coronavirus. ''
`` Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice. Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China, '' the notice said. `` Those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means. The Department of State has requested that all non-essential U.S. government personnel defer travel to China in light of the novel coronavirus. ''
A plane carrying 83 U.K. citizens and 27 foreign nationals left the virus epicenter of Wuhan after a delay on Thursday, according to a Reuters report citing the U.K. embassy in China.
A flight carrying 368 South Koreans from Wuhan also returned to Seoul earlier in the morning. Five new cases in the country were confirmed on Friday, bringing the total to 11.
China's Ministry of Civil Affairs announced Friday morning it recommends localities to cancel marriage registrations on Feb. 2, a popular date among couples as it was deemed to be auspicious.
The ministry also recommended funeral agencies take precautions in handling remains of patients infected with the coronavirus.
The first two coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Italy, according to the country's health ministry, adding that they are Chinese tourists. A day earlier, India and the Philippines confirmed their first cases.
Italy has also blocked all flights into and out of China.
China's Shandong province told companies not to go back to work until Feb. 10, in a bid to tackle the spread of the coronavirus.
Shandong joins other provinces and cities in delaying the start of work. Hubei authorities have announced that businesses are not to resume work till midnight on Feb. 13. Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Suzhou, Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang told businesses not to resume work till midnight on Feb. 9.
China's National Health Commission said there have been an additional 43 deaths and 1,982 new confirmed cases, as of the end of Thursday. That brings the country's total to 213 deaths and 9,692 confirmed cases, the government said.
All times below in Eastern time.
The Hubei Province Health Commission on Thursday reported an additional 42 deaths along with an additional 1,220 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the region as of Jan. 30. That brings the total to 204 deaths and 5,806 cases in the province.
The union that represents American Airlines ' pilots said Thursday it's suing American Airlines to halt service to China amid the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 170 people in China and infected more than 8,000 around the world. The Allied Pilots Association represents `` 15,000 professional pilots who fly for American Airlines, '' according to its site. The suit seeks a temporary restraining order that, the APA said, would halt all American Airlines service between the U.S. and China.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Illinois public health officials confirmed Thursday the nation's first person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus. The new patient is the spouse of the Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, Illinois health officials said during a CDC press briefing. The transmission makes the U.S. at least the fifth country where the infection is now spreading through human-to-human contact.
The World Health Organization said the fast-spreading coronavirus that's infected more than 8,200 across the world is a global health emergency — a rare designation that helps the international agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak.
For more of CNBC's coverage on the coronavirus, read the overnight blog from CNBC's U.S. team.
— CNBC's Berkeley Lovelace Jr. and William Feuer, as well as Reuters, contributed to this report. | business |
Coronavirus outbreak: what’ s next? | Chinese authorities have put protective measures in place as the new coronavirus spreads.
Credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty
Scientists and health authorities around the world are racing to halt the spread of a deadly virus that emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Thousands of people have already contracted the new coronavirus, which causes respiratory illness. The death toll is at 213, and is rising daily. On 30 January, the World Health Organization ( WHO)
declared the outbreak a “ public-health emergency of international concern ”
— an alarm it reserves for events that pose a risk to multiple countries and which requires a coordinated international response.
China virus: latest news on spreading infection
Crucial details about the virus and how it spreads are still unknown, but experts are considering best- and worst-case scenarios on the basis of previous epidemics and what scientists already know.
How many people will the virus infect?
Chinese authorities have locked down cities at the centre of the epidemic, and researchers were quick to share data on the virus with the World Health Organization and researchers. But the case numbers have been rising, and surged past 9,000 in the past day, mostly in China. This has led to
one prediction
that the virus could infect about 39,000 of the 30 million people living in the region of Wuhan. “ It seems like the virus has got out of hand in China, spread too far, too quickly to really be contained, ” says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia.
In the best case, fewer people will be infected because the effects of the control measures will start kicking in, says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. But it’ s too early to tell whether efforts to quarantine people, and the widespread use of face masks, are working. The incubation period for the virus — up to 14 days — is longer than most control measures have been in place, he says.
China coronavirus: Six questions scientists are asking
In a worst-case scenario, some 190,000 people could be infected in Wuhan, according to
another prediction model
. Scientists are particularly concerned about fresh outbreaks emerging outside China. The virus has already spread in small, localized clusters in Vietnam, Japan, Germany and the United States, but authorities have been quick to isolate the people affected. Fewer than 100 cases have been recorded outside China as of 30 January.
Is the virus here to stay?
When a virus circulates continuously in a community, it is said to be endemic. The viruses that cause chicken pox and influenza are endemic in many countries, but outbreaks can be controlled through vaccination and keeping people at home when they are ill.
One big question is whether the coronavirus is also here to stay. If efforts to contain it fail, there’ s a high chance that it will become endemic. As with influenza, this could mean that deaths occur every year as the virus circulates, until a vaccine is developed. If the virus can be spread by people who are infected but don’ t have symptoms, it will be more difficult to control its spread, making it more likely that the virus will become endemic.
China coronavirus: how many papers have been published?
There have been
several cases of infected people displaying no symptoms
, but it’ s still unclear whether such asymptomatic or mild cases are common, and whether or how infectious they are. “ We’ re possibly looking at a virus that’ s going to be with us for a long time, possibly forever, ” says Mackay.
Asymptomatic cases set the new virus apart from the related coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS). There was a global outbreak of this virus in 2002–03, but it usually spread only once people were ill enough to need hospital care. Once outbreaks in hospitals were brought under control, SARS was contained. There is no evidence that the virus is still circulating in humans, says Mackay.
If control measures are effective, and transmission slows so that each infected person infects no more than one other person, the current outbreak could simply peter out, says Cowling.
Is the virus likely to change?
Some researchers are worried that as the China coronavirus spreads, the pathogen could mutate so it can spread more efficiently, or become more likely to cause disease in young people. Currently, the virus has caused severe illness, and death, mainly in older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. A 36-year-old Wuhan man with no known pre-existing health conditions is the youngest victim reported so far.
Kristian Andersen, an infectious-disease researcher at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, is not concerned about the virus becoming more virulent. He says that viruses constantly mutate as part of their life cycle, but those mutations don’ t typically make the virus more virulent or cause more serious disease. “ I can’ t think of any examples of this having happened with an outbreak pathogen, ” he says.
What you need to know about the novel coronavirus
In situations where a virus jumps from one animal host to another species — which is probably how the new coronavirus began to infect humans — there might be a selection pressure to improve survival in the new host, but that rarely, if ever, has any effect on human disease or the virus’ s transmissibility, says Andersen. Most mutations are detrimental to the virus or have no effect, he says. A 2018 study
2
of SARS in primate cells found that a mutation the virus sustained during the 2003 outbreak probably reduced its virulence.
Researchers have
shared dozens of genetic sequences
from strains of the new coronavirus, and a steady supply of those sequences will reveal genetic changes as the outbreak progresses, says MacKay. “ Viruses don’ t change behaviour unless they change sequence, and we need to see constant or consistent virus change, ” he says.
How many people will it kill?
The fatality rate for a virus — the proportion of infected people who die — is difficult to calculate in the middle of an outbreak because records on new cases and deaths are constantly being updated. With 213 deaths so far out of nearly 10,000 infections, the new coronavirus has a death rate of 2–3%. This is significantly lower than SARS, which killed around 10% of the people it infected. The known death rate for the new coronavirus is likely to decrease as mild and asymptomatic cases are identified, virologist Mark Harris at the University of Leeds, UK, told the Science Media Centre in London.
There is currently no effective drugs against the virus. Two HIV drugs thought to target a protein that helps coronaviruses to replicate are being tested as a treatment. Scientists have also identified other existing medications that target this function, and several
international research groups
are working on a vaccine.
The number of deaths will also depend on how China’ s health system copes with the high number of cases. Putting people on drips and ventilators can ensure that they get enough fluids and oxygen while their body’ s immune system fights the virus. China is building two new hospitals in Wuhan to accommodate the people infected, but if the virus spreads to parts of the world with fewer resources, such as low-income regions of Africa, their health systems could struggle, says Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious-disease specialist at the Australian National University in Canberra.
In declaring a global health emergency, the WHO’ s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said his main concern was that the outbreak could spread to countries with fragile health systems.
If the virus spreads throughout the world, the number of deaths could be substantial. The current death rate of 2–3% — while not as high as for SARS — is still quite high for an infectious disease, says Adam Kamradt-Scott, a global health-security specialist at the University of Sydney, Australia. The 1918 influenza outbreak, known as the Spanish flu, infected around half a billion people, one-third of the world’ s population at the time, and
killed more than 2.5% of those infected
; some have estimated that as many as 50 million people died.
The China coronavirus probably won’ t trigger such an apocalyptic scenario, because it isn’ t typically infecting or killing young, healthy people, says Kamradt-Scott. | science |
China coronavirus: labs worldwide scramble to analyse live samples | Coronaviruses cause respiratory infections in humans.
Credit: Dr Linda Stannard/UCT/Science Photo Library
With no sign that an outbreak of a new coronavirus is abating, virologists worldwide are itching to get their hands on physical samples of the virus. They are drawing up plans to test drugs and vaccines, develop animal models of the infection and investigate questions about the biology of the virus such as how it spreads.
China virus: latest news on spreading infection
“ The moment we heard about this outbreak, we started to put our feelers out to get access to these isolates, ” says Vincent Munster, a virologist at the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Hamilton, Montana. His lab is expecting to receive a sample in the next week from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, which has led the response to US cases of the virus.
The first lab to isolate and study the virus, known provisionally as 2019-nCoV, was at the epicentre of the outbreak: in Wuhan, China. A team at the Wuhan Institute of Virology led by virologist Zheng-Li Shi isolated the virus from a 49-year-old woman, who developed symptoms on 23 December 2019 before becoming critically ill. Shi’ s team found
1
that the virus can kill cultured human cells and that it enters them through the same molecular receptor as another coronavirus: the one that causes SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome).
A lab in Australia announced on 28 January that it had obtained virus samples from an infected person who had returned from China. The team was preparing to share the samples with other scientists. Labs in France, Germany and Hong Kong are also isolating and preparing to share virus samples they obtained from local patients, says Bart Haagmans, a virologist at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. “ Probably next week we will get isolates from one of the different labs, ” he says.
Sequences vs samples
The first genome sequence of the virus was made public in early January, and several dozen are now available. The sequences have already led to diagnostic tests for the virus, as well as efforts to study the pathogen’ s spread and evolution. But scientists say that sequences are no substitute for virus samples, which are needed to test drugs and vaccines, and to study the virus in depth. “ It is essential that viruses are shared, ” said Maria Van Kerkhove, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the World Health Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, in a 29 January press conference.
China coronavirus: Six questions scientists are asking
Munster says that his lab’ s first priority will be to identify animals that experience the infection in a similar way to humans. Such animal models will be useful for testing vaccines and drugs. The team first plans to look at a mouse genetically engineered to contain a human version of the receptor that SARS virus and the new coronavirus uses to infect cells. Future work could involve exposing mice and, later, non-human primates to the virus and testing whether vaccines can prevent infection, he adds.
Munster’ s lab is also eager to start gauging how long the virus can survive in the air or in saliva droplets. This could help epidemiologists to understand whether the virus can be transmitted through the air, or only through close contact. Munster’ s study will involve aerosolizing virus particles using a container called a Goldberg drum, and then measuring their ability to infect human cells after periods of time in the air.
Such experiments will be conducted under strict containment measures — known as biosafety level 3 — to prevent lab workers from becoming infected and to avoid accidental release of the pathogen. Thousands of such labs exist around the world, but Munster notes that much of the research on the virus can be done under less stringent biosafety conditions, which should speed the research.
Tracking the spread
One of Haagmans’ first priorities will be to develop a blood test for antibodies against the virus. This will allow researchers to identify people who have been exposed to 2019-nCoV, but are no longer infected and may have never developed symptoms.
Coronavirus outbreak: what’ s next?
His team also hopes to see whether another animal can serve as a model for human infections — ferrets. Researchers use the animals to study influenza and other respiratory illnesses because their lung physiology is similar to that of humans, and they are susceptible to some of the same viruses. Haagmans hopes to test whether they can transmit the virus between them, seeking insights into the pathogen’ s spread between humans.
Many of the questions virologists plan to ask about 2019-nCoV are based on findings from previous studies on the viruses behind SARS and the related Middle East respiratory syndrome. For instance, there have been signs that a protein needed for the SARS virus to infect cells has adapted to enter human cells more easily.
Although for now Haagmans is scrambling to get his hands on just one virus sample, he hopes to eventually have multiple samples from over the course of the outbreak to see whether and how the virus evolves. “ We need to get a better understanding of the biology of the virus, especially compared to viruses that we already know, ” he says. “ That’ s what we’ re going to do. ” | science |
Daily briefing: Genetically engineered gut microbes can protect honey bees | Hello
Nature
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Sign up here
Spitzer images of
nebulae in the constellation Cepheus
, clouds of dust and gas surrounding
the bright star Eta Carinae
, newborn stars
in the Orion nebula
and the bow shock caused by the stellar winds of
Zeta Ophiuchi
.
NASA/JPL-Caltech & NASA/JPL-Caltech/STScI
NASA says goodnight to Spitzer Telescope
Yesterday NASA bid farewell to the Spitzer Space Telescope as its transformative 16-year-old mission came to an end.
The spacecraft was placed in safe mode, ceasing all science operations
. There was no technical barrier to its mission continuing, but NASA chose to redirect resources to the imminent ( but much-delayed) James Webb Space Telescope. “ Saying goodbye to Spitzer is saying goodbye to a dear friend that journeyed with us through the cosmos, ” says astrophysicist Nikole Lewis.
Wired | 6 min read
Engineered symbionts could save bees
The honey bees microbiome has been weaponized to fight off the bees’ enemies.
Researchers genetically modified
Snodgrassella alvi
, a bacterium that lives happily in the bees’ gut
, to produce a specific type of RNA. The RNA targets the bee-killing
Varroa destructor
mite, and the deadly ‘ deformed wing’ virus the mite transmits, causing the mite and virus to dismantle some of their own genes. Whereas humans have a fantastically diverse gut zoo, all honey bees have the same six to eight gut microbes, so the procedure could be widely applicable.
Science | 5 min read
Reference:
Science
paper
Stellar dance swirls the fabric of space-time
The death dance of a white dwarf star and a pulsar reveal relativistic frame dragging — also known as the Lense-Thirring effect — in which a fast-spinning object distorts the fabric of space-time around it. Such a mind-boggling effect is due to the brain-bending qualities of the two stars. The white dwarf orbits so quickly that it’ s year is only about five hours long — reaching orbital speeds of up to a million kilometres per hour. The pulsar itself spins around more than two times per second. The white dwarf is the size of Earth and the pulsar is the size of a city — but both contain more mass than the Sun.
The pulsar’ s metronome-like radio emissions showed researchers how this extreme relativistic system pulls space-time around it
, causing the pulsar’ s orbit to wobble exactly as predicted by general relativity.
Scientific American | 6 min read
Reference:
Science
paper
Coronavirus outbreak
A worker disinfects a neighbourhood in Qingdao, in east China's Shandong province.
Credit: Yu Fangping/Utuku/Ropi/Zuma/eyevine
WHO declares coronavirus a global emergency
• The World Health Organization ( WHO) has
declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency
— the highest level of alarm. The organization's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said his main concern was that the outbreak could spread to countries with fragile health systems. “ This is not a vote of no confidence in China, ” he said. “ This is the time for solidarity, not stigma. ” (
Nature | 6 min read
( continuously updated)
• Crucial details about the virus and how it spreads are still unknown, but
experts are considering best- and worst-case scenarios
on the basis of previous epidemics and what scientists already know.
Nature
examines the possibilities for how many people will be infected, how many will die and whether the virus is now with us to stay. (
Nature | 6 min read
)
Source: Analysis by Nature news team
As of 30 January, at least 54 English-language papers on the coronavirus have been published, more than half in the past seven days, as scientists rush to understand the pathogen and how it spreads. (
Nature | 2 min read
)
Tools for coronavirus researchers
• Springer Nature ( the publisher of
Nature
) has joined others in
making papers relevant to the outbreak free to read
and emphasizing that it embraces preprints and early data-sharing.
•
Elsevier has done a similar thing
, and
The Lancet
’ s collection is here
.
• Wiley’ s collection of
free articles is here
.
•
The New England Journal of Medicine
gathers its resources here
and
The BMJ
’ s collection is here
.
• Manuscript-editing service AJE is offering
free English language editing and translation
for articles related to the coronavirus.
• Chinese journal database Chongqing VIP Information has
opened its website
to readers for free.
Many of the above, and others, have
signed a joint statement, sent out by the health charity Wellcome, committing to work together
to ensure that research findings and data relevant to the outbreak are shared rapidly and openly.
Features & opinion
Help for star-struck peer reviewers
Researchers can be less critical of studies by famous scientists and prestigious institutions, and it’ s causing
flawed studies to slip through peer review
, says Jeff Clements. Clements offers some useful advice based on his own experience as an early career researcher, such as starting a review from the methods section of a paper. “ Knowing this from an early stage could have helped me avoid being star-struck and intimidated, ” he says.
Nature Index | 5 min read
Inoculate against climate disinformation
Cognitive psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky and climate scientist John Hunter combine forces to create
a vaccination against disinformation about the Australian bush fires
. Their approach is a branch of psychology called ‘ inoculation theory’, which says that people can be made immune to falsehoods by being exposed, ahead of time, to the myths they are most likely to encounter on social media and elsewhere.
The Conversation | 5 min read
Podcast: the sound a mummy makes
The voice of a 3,000-year-old individual has been reproduced based on scans of his mummified vocal tract. Researchers made a 3D-printed reproduction of the vocal tract of Egyptian priest Nesyamun to produce
a rather short groaning sound — which you can hear in this week’ s
Nature Podcast
.
Nature Podcast | 28 min listen
Reference:
Scientific Reports
paper
Subscribe to the
Nature Podcast
on iTunes
,
Google Podcasts
or
Spotify
.
Where I work
Mary-Anne Lea is a behavioural ecologist at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Australia.
Credit: Oli Sansom
In the Kerguelen Islands, one of the most isolated places in the world, behavioural ecologist Mary-Anne Lea says she “ felt what it’ s like to live nearly alone among marine animals, and have sensed just how little we know about these species ”. Some of the most special moments in those times are when the animals choose to approach you, she says. (
Nature | 3 min read
)
Quote of the day
“ The reassurance, such as it is, comes from the fact that the products are mostly ineffective. ”
Most dietary supplements don’ t do anything, and the ones that do are potentially dangerous, says physician Peter Lurie, the president of the food-and-health watchdog group Center for Science in the Public Interest. (
The Washington Post
) | science |
China flight reservations for February just half 2019 levels, says ANA | ANA Holdings Inc. have said that seat reservations for its flights from China to Japan next month have halved from a year earlier, due to the spread of a deadly pneumonia-causing virus.
ANA said reservations for its flights from Japan to China have decreased by about 40 percent, with an executive of the company expressing concern that demand for cargo will likely also fall if the outbreak of the new coronavirus leads to a slowdown of the global economy.
But ANA said it was too soon to predict the impact of the virus outbreak on earnings, since its magnitude and duration remain unclear.
The airline has suspended throughout February all daily round-trip flights between Narita, near Tokyo, and Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million people from where the virus has rapidly spread across China and abroad.
Ichiro Fukuzawa, an executive vice president at the parent firm of All Nippon Airways. Co., said the suspension’ s impact on earnings will likely be limited, given that the route between Narita and Wuhan — a manufacturing and logistical hub for many foreign companies — accounts for only 1 percent of the airline’ s revenues from international flights.
Fukuzawa said ANA will continue its round-trip flights to other Chinese destinations, although an increasing number of international airlines have started to halt flights to the country’ s major cities including Beijing and Shanghai.
“ We will closely monitor the spread and will act accordingly, ” Fukuzawa said at a news conference in Tokyo on Thursday on ANA Holding’ s third-quarter earnings.
ANA said its group net profit in the April-December period fell 19.1 percent from a year earlier to ¥86.45 billion ( $ 794 million), due to increased costs for services and facilities.
The company said its operating profit for the third quarter fell 23.6 percent to ¥119.66 billion, while revenues were up 0.9 percent to ¥1.58 trillion.
It left unchanged its earnings forecast for the full fiscal year through March, expecting a group net profit of ¥94 billion, down 15.1 percent, and an operating profit of ¥140 billion, down 15.2 percent, on revenues of ¥2.09 trillion, up 1.5 percent. | tech |
Anti-China sentiment spreads along with coronavirus, especially among neighbors wary of territorial aims | JAKARTA/HANOI – The coronavirus outbreak has stoked a wave of anti-China sentiment around the globe, from shops barring entry to Chinese tourists, online vitriol mocking the country’ s exotic meat trade and surprise health checks on foreign workers.
The virus, which originated in China, has spread to more than a dozen countries, many of them in Southeast Asia, which has sensitive relations with China amid concerns about Beijing’ s vast infrastructure spending and political clout in the region and sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.
Authorities and schools in Toronto were moved to warn against discrimination toward Chinese Canadians, while in Europe there was anecdotal evidence of Chinese residents facing prejudice in the street, and hostile newspaper headlines.
“ Orientalist assumptions plus political distrust plus health concerns are a pretty powerful combination, ” said Charlotte Setijadi, and anthropologist who teaches at Singapore Management University.
Chinese authorities have said the virus emerged from a market selling illegally traded wildlife, giving rise to widespread social media mocking of China’ s demand for exotic delicacies and ingredients for traditional medicine.
“ Stop eating bats, ” said one Twitter user in Thailand, the top destination for Chinese tourists. “ Not surprising that the Chinese are making new diseases, ” another Thai user posted alongside a video clip that showed a man eating raw meat.
“ Because your country is beginning ( to) spread disease…we do not accept to serve the guest from China, ” read a sign in English outside the Danang Riverside hotel in the central Vietnamese city of the same name. Authorities later told the hotel to remove the sign, its manager said in a Facebook post.
Vietnam, which was under Chinese occupation centuries ago and contests Beijing’ s sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea, has particularly fraught relations with China.
Over 60 percent of respondents to a poll of Southeast Asian officials, academics and other professionals said in a survey this month that they distrusted China. Nearly 40 percent said they thought China was “ a revisionist power and intends to turn Southeast Asia into its sphere of influence. ” The survey did not mention the virus.
The Chinese government said it was determined to contain an epidemic it called a “ common challenge facing mankind.
“ Prejudice and narrow-minded words are no good at all, ” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Many countries have imposed visa restrictions on travelers from Hubei province — the epicenter of the virus — while some airlines have suspended all direct flights to mainland China.
But this is not enough for hundreds of thousands of people in South Korea and Malaysia who have signed online petitions urging authorities to ban Chinese from visiting their countries.
In an unusual move, Samal Island in the southern Philippines on Thursday banned not just tourists from China but from all countries affected by the coronavirus to the popular beach spot. China’ s boom in outbound tourism has created a pattern of international travel unprecedented in human history and driven the growth of businesses to serve Chinese travelers around the world. From a trickle in the 1980s, Chinese tourist numbers grew to estimates of more than 160 million in 2019.
In France, whose capital Paris is a major draw for Chinese visitors and which has a significant Chinese population, local Asians created a Twitter hashtag # Jenesuispasunvirus ( “ I am not a virus ”) to report abuse, especially in public transport.
Sun Lay Tan, a 41-year-old manager in the creative industries sector, said the man seated next to him in his Paris subway ride changed seat then put a scarf over his mouth.
“ That was really shocking, ” said Tan, who was born in France of Chinese and Cambodian origin. “ I felt really stigmatized.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Facebook sets out battle plan against coronavirus fake news | SAN FRANCISCO – Facebook will begin removing fake claims and conspiracy theories about the new coronavirus, stepping up efforts to fight the spread of misinformation about a viral outbreak from China that has killed more than 200.
The spread of the virus, which has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, is the latest test of social networks’ ability to rein in false and dangerous claims. Facebook cited the drinking of bleach as one spurious cure claim that has been circulating, saying it will “ start to remove content with false claims or conspiracy theories that have been flagged by leading global health organizations and local health authorities that could cause harm to people who believe them. ”
The company has an existing policy of removing content deemed a threat to users’ physical harm, and has used that policy in the past to remove vaccine-related misinformation, though in rare cases.
The novel coronavirus is taking on a life of its own on the internet, once again putting U.S.-based social media companies on the defensive about their efforts to curb the spread of false information. Researchers and journalists have documented a growing number of cases of misinformation about the virus, ranging from racist explanations for the disease’ s origin to false claims about miracle cures.
Aside from expanding its removal policy, Facebook is doing its usual fact-checking with independent third-party partners, notifying users who may have shared inaccurate prevention tips and disseminating verified advice. The company is “ conducting proactive sweeps to find and remove as much of ” the misleading content as it can, wrote Kang-Xing Jin, its head of health, and it will block or restrict hashtags on Instagram that may be used to spread falsehoods.
Facebook is putting prompts and modules in its News Feed, designed to steer users to accurate information, and it is also taking guidance from the WHO. “ When people search for information related to the virus on Facebook or tap a related hashtag on Instagram, we will return a dedicated information module with credible information, ” Jin wrote. Free advertising credits have been provided to health organizations looking to run coronavirus education campaigns on Facebook and Instagram.
The third prong of Facebook’ s response is a partnership with Harvard University’ s School of Public Health and Taiwan’ s National Tsing Hua University, which the company is providing with “ aggregated and anonymized mobility data and high resolution population density maps to help inform their forecasting models. ” The company may expand its academic partners, according to Jin, though he warned that “ not all of these steps are fully in place ” and the rollout of all of Facebook’ s measures will take time.
It is notable that Facebook has acknowledged misinformation relating to the virus outbreak as a real threat to users and not merely a nuisance. The step of actually removing misleading content and not just labeling it as such is a significant one for a company that has said it won’ t fact-check political advertising. Still, information shared in private groups lies outside the reach of Facebook’ s fact-checking apparatus, and they have been known to incubate conspiracies on many different topics.
Twitter’ s efforts in tackling the issue include directing users to reliable sources, prompting those who search for “ coronavirus ” to visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. The company has not seen an uptick in disinformation since the coronavirus became a worldwide problem, a spokeswoman said. Twitter has a policy against people trying to mislead others with “ deceptive activity. ”
Google has launched one of its so-called SOS Alerts for the coronavirus crisis, partnering with the WHO to issue news updates and resources to anyone searching about it. The alert will be the top thing anyone sees, offering safety tips and the latest updates from the WHO.
On YouTube, the company isn’ t yet taking any measures particular to the coronavirus, but it is battling the rush to hurried misinformation by showing short previews of text-based news articles about the outbreak in search results.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Could growing tourism troubles unseat Kyoto's long-time mayor? | KYOTO – Kyoto voters head to the polls Sunday to cast their ballots in a mayoral election that will have an impact on the city’ s future policies for domestic and international tourism, at a time when voter concerns about the problems of too many tourists are paramount.
Incumbent mayor Daisaku Kadokawa, 69, is seeking a fourth term. He has the backing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, as well as the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democratic Party and Democratic Party For the People.
His opponents include Kazuhito Fukuyama, 58, who is backed by the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi, and Shoei Murayama, 41, who is running without party affiliation.
On the campaign trail, all three candidates have outlined their basic policies for dealing with over-tourism.
“ Kyoto residents can’ t get on overcrowded buses and there have been problems with private lodgings, while the number of hotels is increasing rapidly, ” Fukuyama has observed at his rallies and in his manifesto. “ It’ s time to put tougher regulations in place on building new lodgings, and to separate bus routes into those for residents and those for tourists. ”
RELATED STORIES As foreign tourists to Japan increase, so do their consumer gripes In bid to attract more U.S. tourists, Japan touts attractions at New York travel show Chinese tourists finding they are no longer welcome as fear over coronavirus takes hold
Murayama also favors stricter regulations on building new hotels and cutting the municipal budget for tourism promotion. But he believes it’ s too late to stop the building of hotels and is seeking to better manage foreign tourists.
“ We need to find a way to get the image that Kyoto, like Singapore, is a place where people are vocal about ( proper) manners, ” he said at his rallies.
For his part, Kadokawa, the architect of Kyoto’ s current tourism promotion policies, admits Kyoto is overcrowded. But he adds that tourism income is a plus for the city, as it helps fund expanded municipal services and creates jobs.
“ Lodging facilities that do not contribute to the development and continuation of local culture will be refused permission to operate, and there are possibilities for construction in areas outside the city center, ” Kadokawa has said at rallies. “ We’ re also making efforts for more foreign-language signs and to increase local patrols by residents who can give visitors foreign-language advice on proper manners. ”
Over the past dozen years, Kyoto has become a major international tourist destination.
In 2008, when Kadokawa was first elected, just over 50 million people visited Kyoto, including 940,000 foreign visitors who spent at least one night in town. By 2018, the total number of visitors was around 53 million, after climbing to a high of nearly 57 million in 2015. The number of foreign visitors had reached 4.5 million by 2018.
The rapid increase in the number of people in Kyoto’ s often narrow streets and at temples and shrines brought with it a hotel building boom and increased revenue. Visitors spent ¥1.3 trillion total in 2018, with foreign tourists accounting for about ¥372.5 billion.
But it also brought problems. While tourist-focused businesses in central Kyoto, as well as large temples and shrines, benefited financially, many smaller shops and neighborhoods in other parts of the city did not.
Complaints about ill-mannered tourists, which sometimes meant they simply didn’ t know what was considered rude in Kyoto, became legion. Reports of ambulances stuck in Kyoto’ s crowded streets, and of foreign tourists chasing after geisha ( geiko in the Kyoto dialect) to get selfies, made headlines.
This led to more foreign-language signage, and neighborhood patrols either instructing visitors on what the proper behavior was or telling them what they could not do.
So it was no surprise when 48.8 percent of respondents in a recent Kyoto Shimbun poll also indicated that current tourist numbers should not be increased.
Only 15.7 percent favored policies aimed at increasing the number of tourists. That said, 15.4 percent responded that they also favored city policies that would lead to an increase in only wealthy tourists. What income level that might mean was not made clear.
Sentiment against current tourism policies might benefit Fukuyama on Sunday, and will be a key factor in deciding the winner. But media polls earlier this week still showed that Kadokawa was leading the other two, thanks to his experience and multiple party support. | tech |
Solitary death at ground zero of China's coronavirus paints a grim picture | WUHAN, CHINA – A gray-haired man wearing a face mask lay dead on a sidewalk at ground zero of China’ s virus epidemic, a plastic shopping bag in one hand.
On what would typically be a crowded street in Wuhan, an industrial city of 11 million under quarantine, there were only a few passers-by, and they dared not go near him.
Journalists saw the body Thursday morning, not long before an emergency vehicle arrived carrying police and medical staffers in full-body protective suits.
The man lay straight on his back in front of a closed furniture store. Medical staffers in blue overalls gently shrouded his body with a blue blanket.
The ambulance left, and police stacked supermarket cardboard boxes to hide the scene.
AFP could not determine how the man, who appeared to be in his 60s, had died. AFP contacted police and local health officials afterward but could not get details on his case.
But the reaction of the police and medical staff members in hazmat suits, as well as some of the bystanders, highlighted the fear pervading the city.
A woman standing near the man, wearing pink pajamas and a Mao cap, said she believed he had died from the virus.
“ It’ s terrible, ” she said. “ These days many people have died. ”
Wuhan is the epicenter of the outbreak of the new coronavirus, which is believed to have jumped from wild animals at a city market into humans.
The virus, which emerged late last year, has a death toll that has now risen above 200, with about three-quarters of the dead in Wuhan alone.
With the virus spreading to other countries, the World Health Organization has now declared the crisis a global health emergency.
Authorities have imposed an unprecedented lockdown of Wuhan, blocking off roads out of the city and banning flights in a bid to stop the virus spreading.
Those who are trapped are enduring a tormenting wait for the lockdown to end, for a cure to be found or even just for checkups at overwhelmed hospitals.
AFP reporters in Wuhan have seen long lines at hospitals, with some patients saying they had lined up for two days to see a doctor.
With most traffic banned, people who venture outside have to walk or bike everywhere in the huge city.
The dead man on the street Thursday lay one block from the Wuhan No. 6 Hospital, one of the main medical centers for treating those with virus symptoms.
A team of forensic experts who examined him were immediately sprayed with disinfectant by colleagues after removing their hazardous material suits.
One man smoking near the scene was told sharply by police to put out his cigarette and don a face mask.
In the two hours that AFP observed the scene, at least 15 ambulances passed by, attending other calls.
Finally, a white van with blacked-out windows arrived to take away the man.
The body was zipped into a yellow surgical bag, and carried into the van on a stretcher.
Staff members immediately began to clean the ground as the van drove away, disinfecting the streets where the old man’ s body had lain.
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Economist who counted $ 40 billion cost from SARS predicts far bigger hit from new coronavirus | SYDNEY/BEIJING/LONDON – The global cost of the coronavirus could be three or four times that of the 2003 SARS outbreak, which sapped the world’ s economy by $ 40 billion, according to the economist who calculated the SARS figure.
The sheer growth in the Chinese economy over the last 17 years means the global health emergency triggered by the coronavirus outbreak has far greater potential to gouge global growth, according to Warwick McKibbin, professor of economics at the Australian National University in Canberra.
“ It’ s just a mathematical thing, ” McKibbin said in a phone interview. “ Most of the GDP loss that we saw in the SARS model — and in reality — was China slowing down. And so, with China much bigger, you’ d expect the billions would be much bigger. ”
While difficult to pinpoint a precise cost as the crisis is still unfolding, the impact will be experienced mostly through changes in “ human psychology, ” he said. “ Panic is what seems to be the biggest drain on the economy, rather than deaths. ”
Markets have been whipsawed by panic, Paris-based Amundi Asset Management said in a note on Wednesday. Chief Investment Officer Pascal Blanque and his deputy Vincent Mortier said the novel coronavirus had provided the trigger for a pause in a stock market rally that began in October.
McKibbin’ s forecasts are in line with those of other analysts.
Nomura International Ltd. expects the blow to China’ s growth could exceed that seen during the SARS outbreak. Real GDP growth in the first quarter could “ materially drop ” from the 6 percent pace in the fourth quarter, and maybe by even more than the deceleration of 2 percentage points in 2003’ s second quarter, Nomura economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a report to clients.
The first official indicator of the Chinese economy in 2020 signaled factories were flatlining even before the country shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday period and the coronavirus outbreak worsened.
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dropped to 50 in January, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, matching the median estimate of economists. The nonmanufacturing gauge was 54.1, compared with 53.5 in December.
Due to the holiday, the surveys were conducted earlier in January than normal, before the extent of the disease outbreak and the disruption to the economy were evident.
China’ s economy was already slowing amid weak domestic demand, a crackdown on debt and the trade war with the U.S. The outbreak of the novel coronavirus is now hammering growth as businesses shut for at least another week and people across major cities avoid going out for fear of getting sick.
“ We expect a big plunge of both manufacturing and service PMIs in February and March, ” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “ The virus outbreak may further weaken domestic demand and thus render the upcoming policy easing less effective. ”
The worsening health crisis has seen numerous economists revise down their forecasts for growth. Many expect the government and central bank will step in to cushion the blow.
The impact of the new coronavirus “ has not been fully reflected in January PMI, and its influence on the economy shouldn’ t be underestimated, ” Zhang Liqun, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center compiling the data with the NBS, wrote in a statement. “ Efforts are needed to stabilize growth. ”
GDP growth will slow to 4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter from a previously forecast 5.6 percent, according to Andrew Tilton, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. Even with the assumption of a relatively quick rebound in the second and third quarters, that would lower full-year 2020 growth to 5.5 percent, he said.
“ A more prolonged outbreak could lower full-year growth to 5 percent or even below, ” Tilton wrote in a note to clients dated Jan. 31.
The U.S. State Department has warned Americans not to travel to China, and airlines around the world are paring services to contain the outbreak.
European carriers led by British Airways have said they were quitting China as the coronavirus spreads. Japan-based carrier ANA said Friday it may need to considering canceling China flights. U.S. carriers are taking a more conservative approach, with the three top operators paring timetables without exiting China completely.
Moves to abandon routes to Beijing and Shanghai indicate escalating levels of concern, with both cities hundreds of kilometers from the focus of the outbreak.
More contagious than SARS but less deadly, the insidious nature of the coronavirus, dubbed 2019-nCoV, is such that it often presents as mild cold-like symptoms and can go undetected, which could potentially protract out the crisis for longer than the 2003 epidemic.
The new virus, which emerged in central China in late 2019, is reported to have infected almost 10,000 people in two months, eclipsing the 8,096 SARS cases reported from November 2002 through 2003, when the contagion spread from China across Southeast Asia and to North America and Europe.
“ If a country had a bad epidemiological outcome, then their shocks were likely be a lot bigger than countries that were able to control it well, ” McKibbin said, referring to his findings from examining the impact of SARS.
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American Airlines pilots sue to block China flights as virus unnerves crews worldwide | WASHINGTON/PARIS/SINGAPORE – A pilots union filed a lawsuit on Thursday seeking to immediately halt American Airlines U.S.-China service, as cabin crews worldwide voiced unease about exposure to the rapidly-spreading coronavirus which has killed more than 170 people in China.
The Allied Pilots Association, which represents American Airlines pilots, cited “ serious, and in many ways still unknown, health threats posed by the coronavirus. ”
American, the largest U.S. carrier, did not immediately comment on the suit, filed in a Texas court. The Fort Worth, Texas-based airline announced on Wednesday it would next month suspend flights from Los Angeles to Beijing and Shanghai, but continue flights from Dallas.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declared the coronavirus outbreak in China a global emergency as cases spread to 18 countries.
The lawsuit came as an increasing number of airlines stopped their flights to China. Air France-KLM, for example, suspended its Beijing and Shanghai flights after cabin crews demanded an immediate halt.
Others that have dropped mainland Chinese destinations besides Wuhan, the outbreak’ s center, include British Airways and Germany’ s Lufthansa. Wuhan is closed to commercial air traffic.
Virgin Atlantic also said on Thursday it would suspend its daily operations to Shanghai from Sunday for two weeks because of the safety of customers and staff and a declining demand for tickets, but would continue flights to Hong Kong.
Other major carriers have kept flying to China, but protective masks and shorter layovers designed to reduce exposure have done little to reassure crews.
Thai Airways is hosing its cabins with disinfectant spray between China flights and allowing crew to wear masks and gloves.
“ I don’ t think it’ s safe at all even with gloves and masks, because you catch it so many ways, like your eyes, ” said one flight attendant, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“ My friends also feel unsafe and don’ t want to fly, ” she said. “ When we fly, we don’ t sleep a lot. ”
Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are operating fewer China flights, with Delta offering food deliveries so crew can stay in their hotels.
Korean Air Lines Co. Ltd. and Singapore Airlines are sending additional crew to fly each plane straight back, avoiding overnight stays.
The South Korean carrier also said it was loading hazmat suits for flight attendants who might need to take care of suspected coronavirus cases in the air.
The outbreak poses the biggest epidemic threat to the airline industry since the 2003 SARS crisis, which led to a 45% plunge in passenger demand in Asia at its peak in April of that year, analysts said.
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7,000 kept in isolation aboard cruise ship as Chinese communities warn of Italy 'racism ' over virus | ROME – Prominent figures in Chinese communities in Italy warned Thursday of episodes of “ latent racism ” against their compatriots by Italians fearful of catching a deadly viral outbreak.
Tensions increased after some 7,000 people were held on a cruise ship in an Italian port following the isolation of two Chinese passengers over fears they could be carrying the coronavirus, despite preliminary tests coming up negative.
Italian newspapers have reported cases of bullying or discrimination against Chinese people following the outbreak of the disease, which has now killed 170 in China and has spread abroad, with at least 15 countries confirming infections.
“ It’ s extremely unpleasant, absurd, and infuriating, ” Francesco Wu, a member of the Italian Business Association Confcommercio, often called on to speak for the 30,000-strong Chinese community in Milan, told La Stampa daily.
Racist episodes reportedly included Chinese tourists being spat at in Venice, a family in Turin being accused of carrying the disease, and mothers in Milan using social media to call for Italian children to be kept away from Chinese classmates.
“ It’ s totally unjustified and it hurts even more because it involves children. It’ s a mix of ignorance and latent racism, ” Wu said.
Local health officials have sent the schools concerned a letter stating that “ there is no need to introduce measures restricting the presence of Chinese children within school communities, ” according to AGI.
There were some 300,000 Chinese living in Italy at the end of 2018, according to the National Statistics Institute ( Istat).
Despite that, Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala said Chinese tourism — worth some €300 million ( $ 331,000) a month to the city between hotels, shopping and restaurants — was down 40 percent compared to before the virus.
A Chinese journalist who has lived in Italy for 30 years and who runs the “ China in Italy ” monthly published an open letter “ to Italian friends.
“ Believing that one can catch the new coronavirus at the mere sight of a Chinese person really makes no sense, ” she said.
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Amid virus outbreak, Japan stores scramble to meet demand for face masks | Drug stores in Japan are scrambling to restock their supply of surgical masks to keep up with growing demand as fears deepen over the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Surgical masks are often the first thing people use to protect themselves from infectious diseases, and as reports of the deadly coronavirus thought to have originated in China continue to emerge in countries around the world, they have become increasingly difficult to find.
In Tokyo, daily shipments of masks are arriving later every day and drug stores often find themselves with empty shelves.
“ Every day we’ re out of masks within a few hours of opening, ” said a clerk at a drug store in Shinjuku Ward who asked not to be named. “ It’ s been that way since the outbreak started. ”
Other stores nearby were experiencing similar issues. Most of them said surgical masks are typically sold out by 10 a.m. and daily shipments weren’ t arriving on time. Others had to limit the number of masks each customer could buy to prevent one shopper from emptying their entire stock.
Clever, a manufacturer of mesh items in Toyohashi, Aichi Prefecture, said it is receiving nearly 20 times the usual number of orders for high-end face masks from both domestic and international customers.
The company, which experienced a similar uptick in sales during previous outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), said it has been getting between 200 and 300 orders a day since the first case in Aichi of the new coronavirus was reported Sunday.
The company, which usually gets about 10 orders a day during this time of the year, allocated all workers from other product lines to focus on making masks.
“ I’ m sorry but we can’ t keep up with the demand, ” said company President Eri Ishibashi. “ The particle size of the new coronavirus isn’ t known yet so we can’ t even say for sure that these masks will be effective. ”
Surgical masks commonly found in drug stores are mostly designed to contain bacteria. N95 surgical masks, on the other hand, which can sometimes be found in pharmacies but are easier to find online, are used to prevent the inhalation of a virus and spread of infectious diseases. In any case, doctors say face masks should be worn so that your nose and mouth are completely covered without any space between the mask and the skin to prevent you from inhaling a virus or touching your face with your hands. What’ s most important is to wash your hands thoroughly and frequently.
Protective masks are even harder to find in other countries. Suzuko Hirano, 26, has been gathering hundreds of them to send to Hong Kong, where she says the lack of mask manufacturers is forcing people to seek help from abroad. In the past two weeks, she has gathered nearly two thousand surgical masks with the help of other concerned Japanese to send to an organization in Hong Kong that will then distribute them.
Hirano sent a package containing about 750 masks last week. She has collected around 1,200 additional masks since then and she plans to send the second batch once she manages to gather 3,000.
In October, Hong Kongers raised ¥13.8 million in a crowdfunding campaign to help Japanese recover from a devastating typhoon days earlier.
“ This time it’ s our turn to help, ” she said. “ It’ s not about nationality. The outbreak is reaching a crisis and we’ re all in this together. ”
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Virus poses stark challenges to Abe's tourism goals as Tokyo Olympics loom | The coronavirus outbreak is posing myriad challenges for the Japanese economy, including a key Abe administration policy initiative — the promotion of inbound tourism.
In recent years, inbound tourism has been one of the few sectors to see rapid growth in the long-stagnant Japanese economy. Top government officials, especially Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, have touted the country’ s “ exploding ” inbound tourism as a successful example of their “ structural reform ” deregulation initiatives.
In fact, everything looked to be on track until recently. The number of foreign tourists skyrocketed from 8.36 million in 2012 to 31.88 million in 2019, largely thanks to the yen’ s depreciation and Suga’ s initiative to ease Japan’ s visa conditions for tourists from other Asian countries, most notably China.
Total spending by foreign tourists in Japan likewise surged from an estimated ¥1.1 trillion to ¥4.8 trillion during the same period, with Chinese tourists spending as much as 36.8 percent of total tourism expenditures in 2019, followed by Taiwanese at 11.4 percent and South Koreans at 8.7 percent.
“ It has been confirmed that the effects from inbound tourism … is turning into one of the main growth engines of the Japanese economy, ” declared the Japan Tourism Agency in its 2018 white paper.
“ By becoming a tourism-oriented country, we have created a large and robust industry that is driving regional revitalization throughout Japan, ” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe boasted in his annual policy speech in January last year.
But that rosy vision of “ a tourism-oriented country ” has recently been put in doubt.
Since July, the number of South Korean tourists, typically the second-largest ethnic group among visitors, plummeted by more than 50 percent as nationalistic sentiment in both countries flared up over thorny history and trade issues.
In December, the number of tourists from the country who came to Japan stood at 248,000, down 63.6 percent from the same month in the previous year. Experts had already said it had become impossible for Abe’ s government to meet its target of 40 million foreign tourists in 2020.
And then the coronavirus hit. Beijing has taken the extraordinary step to ban all Chinese from going overseas on group tours, effective Jan. 27. The number of Chinese tourists, the largest group by nationality, is expected to fall drastically as a result.
Some experts say the coronavirus crisis is likely to continue for several months, possibly affecting the Tokyo Olympics starting July 24 — a nightmare scenario for Abe, who has tried to use the world’ s largest sporting event to promote the Japanese economy and thereby further drum up voters’ support for his government.
According to a simulation by a medical team led by Gabriel Leung, the dean of the University of Hong Kong’ s faculty of medicine, the number of infections in five Chinese mega-cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing — would peak between late April and early May, meaning the crisis would still continue further beyond that period.
“ The best case scenario, you would have something … where we go through the spring into the summer, and then it dies down, ” David Fisman, a professor at the University of Toronto, was quoted as saying by media reports.
During an Upper House Budget Committee session Wednesday, Liberal Democratic Party member Motoyuki Fujii pointed out it took about six months to contain the SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome) crisis in 2003, which was caused by a similar virus and infected about 8,000 people and killed 774 from Nov. 2002 to Aug. 2003.
The new coronavirus, which was first officially confirmed in Wuhan on Dec. 31, has already infected at least around 9,800 and killed 213, according to the tally compiled by the South China Morning Post as of Friday.
“ I’ m concerned. … Now we have exactly about six months before the Olympic Games will start in July, ” Fujii said.
“ I’ d like the government to make its maximum efforts to get rid of the effects of the infectious disease by the time we will have the Olympic Games, ” he added.
In response, Seiko Hashimoto, the minister in charge of the Olympics and Paralympics, said that “ measures against infectious diseases including the new coronavirus are very important ” in organizing the event.
“ I believe safety and the sense of security must be ensured to make the Tokyo Olympics successful, ” Hashimoto said.
It is still probably too early to predict any effects on the Tokyo Games, as many key details of the new coronavirus still remain unknown.
But the outbreak has also highlighted a legal loophole and Japan’ s apparent unpreparedness to deal with serious outbreaks of infectious disease in general.
Medical experts were shocked to learn that a carrier of the novel coronavirus could infect others even during the incubation period, when no symptoms are apparent. However, under the law, quarantine officers are not allowed to force a person showing no symptoms to undergo a medical test to determine whether that person is a carrier of a designated infectious disease.
In fact, two Japanese citizens who arrived at Tokyo’ s Haneda Airport from Wuhan on a government-chartered airplane Wednesday refused to be tested for the virus. They went home from the airport and did not stay at a housing facility prepared by the government.
“ Two people have refused to undergo a virus test. We tried to persuade them for hours but there was no legally binding power. It’ s very regrettable, ” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe admitted during an Upper House budget committee session Thursday.
On the political front, a setback in the promotion of inbound tourism is likely to deal a heavy blow to Abe as he struggles to carve out a legacy for his administration, which began in December 2012. Abe’ s term as the president of the ruling LDP will expire in September next year.
His Abenomics policy mix consists of three main components: ultraloose monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, aggressive fiscal spending by the government and structural economic reforms, most notably deregulation.
Many economists have regarded monetary easing and fiscal spending as temporary measures to buy time, given the ballooning central government debt.
Structural economic reforms, in particular deregulation, is the key to achieve sustainable growth, they say, and promotion of inbound tourism has been often pointed out as one of the few successful cases of Abe’ s structural reform initiatives.
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Goldman Sachs: Coronavirus to weigh on US economic growth this quarter | Goldman Sachs believes the fast-spreading outbreak of China's coronavirus will act as a drag on U.S. economic growth during the first three months of the year.
Barring a significant change in the news flow around the virus itself, analysts at the U.S. investment bank said late Thursday that they anticipate a 0.4 percentage point slowdown of U.S. annualized growth in the first quarter.
This will likely be followed by a subsequent rebound in the second quarter, `` boosting '' annualized growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points.
Overall, Goldman analysts said they would expect the virus to result in `` only a small net drag '' on U.S. full-year 2020 growth of roughly 0.05 percentage points.
`` The drag on growth operates mostly through lower tourism from China and lower U.S. goods exports to China, '' they added.
Goldman's prediction comes as market participants try to assess the potential economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak.
China's envoy to the United Nations said Friday that there have been more than 9,800 confirmed cases of the virus in China, with 213 deaths.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) recognized the coronavirus as a global health emergency on Thursday, citing concern that the outbreak continued to spread to other countries with weaker health systems.
WHO's designation was issued in order to help the United Nations health agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak.
The virus, which was first discovered in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has now spread to at least 18 other countries.
In a research note specifically addressing the impact of the coronavirus on U.S. economic growth, Goldman analysts warned that the risks of their net 0.05 percentage point drag on full-year economic growth were `` skewed towards a larger hit. ''
That's because `` a change in the news flow could lead to increased domestic risk aversion behavior or a sustained tightening in financial conditions. ''
`` A larger outbreak of the virus in the U.S. or the fear thereof could lead to a decline in domestic travel, commuting and shopping, '' they added.
President Donald Trump has said the U.S. government was working closely with China to contain the outbreak and predicted a `` very good ending '' for the U.S.
Speaking in Warren, Michigan on Thursday during a visit to a manufacturing plant, Trump said U.S. officials believe `` we have it all under control. '' The president added the virus constituted a `` very small problem in this country. ''
On Thursday, U.S. health officials confirmed the nation's first person-to-person transmission of the virus.
The new patient is the husband of the Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, health officials said during a press briefing.
— CNBC's Michael Wayland, Berkeley Lovelace Jr & William Feuer contributed to this report. | business |
Coronavirus: International cruise lines implement precautionary steps | Cruise lines around the world are taking new measures to reduce the risk of a coronavirus outbreak onboard their ships.
A cruise ship carrying 6,000 tourists went into lockdown at the Italian port of Civitavecchia on Thursday over fears a Chinese passenger may be infected with the virus. Health officials later cleared the ship after diagnosing the passenger with common flu.
In a statement issued Thursday, Cruise Lines International Association ( CLIA) — the body representing the global cruise industry — said cruise operators were working with the World Health Organization ( WHO) and other regulators to protect passengers.
`` This includes the modification of itineraries, where needed, in light of evolving circumstances, as well as health, travel and contact screening where appropriate, for guests and crew who have recently traveled from or through the affected area, '' CLIA said. `` Screening protocols allow for informed decisions on a case-by-case basis whether a guest or crewmember will be denied boarding. ''
Members of CLIA have suspended crew movements from mainland China and will deny boarding to anyone who has traveled from or through China within the previous 14 days.
A spokesperson for P & O Cruises told CNBC via email on Friday that the company's medical experts were working closely with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) and the WHO to implement control measures.
`` Guests and crew who have visited mainland China within the last 14 days will be denied boarding irrespective of any history of symptoms of respiratory illness, '' they said.
`` Our pre-boarding screening will be conducted for all guests in all embarkation ports with further medical evaluation if necessary. All guests and crew who visit our onboard medical center with symptoms of any respiratory illness will be risk assessed for coronavirus and action taken as necessary. ''
P & O announced earlier this week that one of its routes would be diverted to call at Singapore instead of Hong Kong.
Royal Caribbean told CNBC on Friday that it was implementing `` intentionally conservative '' health and safety steps until further notice.
`` Regardless of nationality, we will deny boarding to any individual who has traveled from, to or through mainland China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days — these guests will receive full refunds, '' a spokesperson said via email.
Mandatory health screenings would also be performed on anyone who had been in contact with a person who had visited China or Hong Kong in the previous 15 days, as well as all holders of passports from China or Hong Kong — regardless of when they were last in the region. Travelers and crew members who reported feeling unwell would be screened, and anyone presenting fever or low levels of oxygen in the blood would be denied boarding.
The company also said it had canceled all cruises to China and Hong Kong until mid-February.
Elsewhere, U.S. cruise line Norwegian also told CNBC on Friday that the company had implemented new health precautions but had not altered any of its itineraries.
`` Due to the growing concern regarding coronavirus infections in China, we are implementing non-touch temperature screenings for all passengers embarking in Hong Kong. Our vessels are currently not calling to ports in mainland China, '' a spokesperson said via email.
`` Guests who register a body temperature screening of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit ( 38 degrees Celsius) or higher and are embarking on a voyage in Hong Kong will not be allowed to board. In addition, guests who have visited mainland China in the last 30 days will not be allowed to board any of our vessels. ''
British cruise line Saga Cruises told CNBC in a phone call Friday that the company was carrying out enhanced screening checks similar to those being performed at airports. Those screenings involved checking signs such as temperature and asking passengers about their recent travel history before they boarded any ship.
However, the spokesperson pointed out that the firm was an `` anomaly '' as all of their passengers boarded in the U.K. and it didn't operate any routes through Asia.
In a statement on Thursday, MSC Cruises said that while there were no cases of coronavirus onboard any of its ships, the firm would immediately be implementing precautionary measures to ensure the wellbeing of its passengers and crew.
People who have visited mainland China in the previous 30 days will not be allowed to board MSC ships, the company said, and anyone wishing to board a ship will be screened for signs of illness such as fever.
Anyone with flu-like symptoms while onboard one of MSC's cruises would be isolated in their cabin, as would their close contacts and any crew member who had served the passenger in question. | business |
Salty masks could kill coronavirus | Should you be in China right now, you 'll see a lot of people wearing surgical masks to protect themselves against coronavirus. A Canadian scientist claims that such masks may actually do more harm than good, if handled improperly – so he's created a coating that could reportedly change that.
A biomedical engineer based out of the University of Alberta, Asst. Prof. Hyo-Jick Choi states that there are two main problems with using surgical masks for protection against coronavirus.
For one thing, they're only capable of capturing large airborne virus-laden water droplets. Respiratory viruses such as coronavirus, unfortunately, can also be spread via much smaller aerosol droplets, which are able to make their way through the masks ' pores. Devices known as N95/N99 respirators are able to filter out aerosols, but they're not as breathable as masks, plus they're expensive and impractical for everyday use.
The other problem with masks lies in the fact that, while they may trap some viruses, they don't kill them. As a result, when people remove and discard of used masks, the viruses could be transferred from those masks and onto their fingers or other commonly-touched surfaces.
With these problems in mind, Choi and colleagues designed a virus-killing coating that can be applied to conventional mask filtration material. He tells us that it's made up mainly of two salts – sodium chloride and potassium chloride.
When a droplet of any size comes into contact with the coating, the salts dissolve into it. As that droplet subsequently evaporates, the dissolved salts within it crystallize – the sharp edges of the crystals stab into any viruses that may be present, killing them.
`` We’ ve tested our system on three different influenza viruses and have shown that the virus on the surface of a coated contaminated mask is inactive within five minutes and completely destroyed within 30 minutes, '' says Choi. He believes that the technology should be equally effective against coronavirus.
The university is now looking for corporate partners to help commercialize the coating, with hopes of having a product on the market within 12 to 18 months. In the meantime, Choi recommends that users of conventional masks not touch the filtration material itself, always wash their hands before and after handling a mask, never store used masks in places such as pockets, and replace masks after each use.
The research is being funded by Mitacs, a not-for-profit organization that fosters growth and innovation in Canada. It's previously brought us things such as an augmented reality feedback system for the training of athletes, and a computer vision-based flight data recorder.
Source: Mitacs | science |
China economy: Beijing announces official manufacturing PMI for January | China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index came in at 50.0 for January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the official manufacturing PMI to come in at 50.0.
The official manufacturing PMI — a measure of factory activity — was at 50.2 in December.
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.
The manufacturing PMI was released just after the World Health Organization on Thursday declared a coronavirus outbreak that started in Wuhan, China as a global health emergency.
In its analysis of the data, China's statistics bureau said the impact of the coronavirus outbreak was not fully reflected in its January's PMI reading as the survey was conducted before Jan. 20. The virus outbreak was officially reported in late December.
PMI in the coming months `` will give insight into how damaging the virus is, '' noted Martin Lynge Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy.
Economists at Nomura said they expect `` a big plunge '' in February PMI numbers to a range between 40 and 45, due to the virus outbreak.
`` The services PMI could be hit harder than the manufacturing PMI, as a number of service sectors have come to a grinding halt since 23 January, '' they said in a note on Friday.
China's National Health Commission on Friday said there have been an additional 43 deaths and 1,982 new cases were confirmed, as of the end of Thursday. That brings the country's total deaths to 213 and 9,692 confirmed cases, the government said.
China's economy has been under pressure since last year, amid a long-drawn trade war with the U.S. Now, the outbreak of the coronavirus will likely put even more strain on the world's second largest economy which has seen slower growth.
To prevent the virus from spreading further, a number of provinces in China extended the Lunar New Year holidays — a move that will hit businesses and global supply chains.
The week-long Lunar New Year holidays typically distort manufacturing data due to front-loading and factory closures during that time. The holiday usually falls in the month of January or February each year.
Global markets have been selling off this week as investors fear widespread economic fallout from the coranavirus outbreak.
The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. Results of a private manufacturing PMI survey by Markit/Caixin — which features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms — will be released on Monday. | business |
Families uneasy at proximity to coronavirus quarantine site | Families living near the Merseyside hospital being used to quarantine potential coronavirus cases have said they are concerned and confused as dozens of evacuated Britons were taken to the NHS facility.
The 83 British passengers on the chartered flight from Wuhan to RAF Brize Norton were expected to arrive on Friday evening at Arrowe Park hospital in Wirral, where they will stay in staff accommodation and be monitored around the clock for 14 days.
Public Health England said there was no risk to wider members of the public, including to other patients at the hospital.
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 6 April, more than 1.25m people have been infected in more than 180 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 69,500 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 15,800 fatalities, and there have been over 12,600 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 335,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 264,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
None of the people in quarantine have tested positive for coronavirus, but any who display symptoms will be taken to the nearby Royal Liverpool University hospital, which has a high-level infectious diseases unit.
However, some residents expressed concern about the proximity of the quarantine site to their homes and questioned whether the busy hospital would be able to cope with the additional pressure.
Del Willden, 53, said he had nothing but praise for hospital staff and was pleased the evacuees had returned safely from China. But he added: “ My concern is for the hospital. This is my local hospital and I know and have experienced the struggles they suffer on a daily basis.
“ Although we have been told there will be no disruption to the medical staff at the hospital, how can they guarantee that should there be an outbreak? It could prove catastrophic for the staff and patients. ”
Willden questioned why the patients were not accommodated nearer to RAF Brize Norton, 170 miles away in Oxfordshire, where their Foreign Office-chartered flight landed on Friday lunchtime.
One family in Archers Court, one of the closest residential streets to Arrowe Park, said they were leaving home for two weeks due to their concerns about the quarantine facility. “ We’ re trying to move to London because of this, ” said one resident, carrying his eight-month-old baby while packing belongings into a car.
“ The main concern is we don’ t know how the quarantine will work, ” said the man, who did not wish to be named. “ We are concerned because we’ ve got families here. If we received precautions and a mask we wouldn’ t move [ but now ] even going outside might be a risk. The only time we received any news was on television last night – it was short notice for us. ”
His partner, who also did not wish to be named, said she had tried to buy protective masks from the hospital pharmacy but they had sold out. A member of staff confirmed they had had an “ influx of demand ” and stock was not expected until next week.
Margaret Greenwood, the Labour MP for Wirral West, said constituents had written to her expressing concerns but that she had been assured by Matt Hancock, the health secretary, that it was unlikely any of those being held in quarantine carried the virus.
“ People are concerned, ” she said. “ Arrowe Park hospital is a very big employer; a lot of people work there. There’ s people coming in and out of all the time. Obviously people are concerned because of what they’ ve seen on their television. ”
Trolleys containing PlayStations, Xboxes and children’ s toys such as Barbie dolls were seen being wheeled into the premises on Friday afternoon. Some of the toys were aged one to three years, suggesting families with small children may be kept in isolation.
Staff who live in the blocks were seen carrying belongings into removal vans while specialist cleaners and fire safety officers entered the accommodation. Fencing with tarpaulin was erected behind the building, which backs onto a country park and golf course.
It is understood that those quarantined will be given fully furnished rooms, food and laundry facilities, and kitchens are available. Families will be able to stay together and there will be no charge for the accommodation. | general |
Airlines suspend China flights over coronavirus | Airlines have started suspending flights to China in the wake of a new coronavirus outbreak, which as of Friday had killed 213 people. Here's what we know so far.
AIR CANADA
Air Canada said on Jan. 28 it was cancelling select flights to China.
AIR FRANCE
Air France said on Jan. 30 it suspended all scheduled flights to and from mainland China until Feb. 9.
AIR INDIA
Air India said it was cancelling its Mumbai-Delhi-Shanghai flight from Jan. 31 to Feb. 14.
AIR NEW ZEALAND
Air New Zealand said on Jan. 31 it was temporarily reducing flights between Auckland and Shanghai to four return services a week from Feb. 18 to March 31 rather than the usual daily flights.
AIR SEOUL
South Korean budget carrier Air Seoul said on Jan. 28 it had suspended all flights to China.
AIR TANZANIA
Tanzania's state-owned carrier said it would postpone its maiden flights to China. It had planned to begin charter flights to China in February.
AMERICAN AIRLINES
The largest U.S. carrier said it would suspend flights from Los Angeles to Beijing and Shanghai from Feb. 9 to March 27.
BRITISH AIRWAYS
BA said on Jan. 30 it had cancelled all flights to mainland China for a month.
CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific said it would progressively reduce capacity to and from mainland China by 50% or more from Jan. 30 to the end of March.
DELTA AIR LINES
The U.S. airline said on Jan. 29 it was reducing flights to China to 21 per week from 42, starting Feb. 6 through April 30.
EGYPTAIR
Egypt's flag carrier said on Jan. 30 it would suspend all flights to and from China starting Feb. 1.
ETHIOPIAN AIRLINES
The African carrier on Jan. 30 denied reports it had suspended all flights to China. The airline's statement contradicted its passenger call centre, which told Reuters earlier in the day that flights to China had been suspended.
FINNAIR
Finland's Finnair said on Jan. 28 it would suspend its flights to Nanjing and Beijing until the end of March after China suspended international group travel from the country.
Finnair will suspend its three weekly flights between Helsinki and Beijing Daxing between Feb. 5 and March 29 and its two weekly flights between Helsinki and Nanjing between Feb. 8 and March 29.
LION AIR
Indonesia's Lion Air Group said on Jan. 29 it would suspend all flights to China from February. The airline has suspended six flights from several Indonesian cities to China so far and will suspend the rest next month.
LUFTHANSA
Germany's Lufthansa said on Jan. 29 it was suspending Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian Airlines flights to and from China until Feb. 9. The airline continues to fly to Hong Kong, but it will stop taking bookings for flights to mainland China until the end of February.
SAS
Nordic airline SAS said on Jan. 30 it has decided to suspend all flights to and from Shanghai and Beijing from Jan. 31 until Feb. 9.
SAS offers 12 regular weekly connections from and to Shanghai and Beijing.
SINGAPORE AIRLINES
Singapore Airlines Ltd said on Jan. 31 it would reduce capacity on some of its routes to mainland China in February.
The cuts include flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen and Chongqing, some of which are flown by regional arm SilkAir. Its budget carrier Scoot is also cutting back on flights to China.
TURKISH AIRLINES
Turkey's flag carrier said on Jan. 30 it would decrease frequency on scheduled flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Xian between Feb. 5 and Feb. 29.
UNITED AIRLINES
Chicago-based United said it would implement a second phase of flight cancellations between its hub cities in the United States and Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, resulting in 332 additional roundtrips being called off through March 28.
The cancellations will reduce the carrier's daily departures for mainland China and Hong Kong to four daily departures from 12.
United had previously suspended 24 U.S. flights to Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai between Feb. 1 and Feb. 8 because of a significant drop in demand.
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC
UPS has cancelled 22 China flights, as a result of the Wuhan quarantines and normal manufacturing closures due to the Lunar New Year holiday, UPS Chief Executive David Abney said on Jan. 30. He did not specify how many flights cancellations were due to the virus.
VIRGIN ATLANTIC
Virgin Atlantic said on Jan. 30 it would suspend its daily operations to Shanghai for two weeks from Feb. 2. It cited declining demand for flights and the safety of its customers and staff. ( Reporting by Jagoda Darlak and Tommy Lund in Gdansk; additional reporting by Ankit Ajmera in Bengaluru and Jamie Freed in Sydney; Editing by Stephen Coates) | business |
CDC issues mandatory quarantine for first time in more than 50 years to Wuhan passengers in California | U.S. health officials have quarantined 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, taking the rare step of issuing a mandatory order for the first time in more than 50 years to help contain an outbreak of a new coronavirus that's spread to roughly 10,000 people across the globe.
`` CDC under statutory authority of the HHS secretary has issued federal quarantine orders for all 195 passengers, '' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conference call with reporters Friday. `` While we recognize this is an unprecedented action, we are facing an unprecedented public health threat. ''
Trump administration officials later said they were and issuing mandatory quarantines for any U.S. citizens who have visited Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, in the last 14 days. Travel restrictions were also being issued for anyone who visited elsewhere in mainland China over the previous two weeks. The administration plans to deny entry to foreign nationals who `` pose a risk of transmitting '' the virus in the U.S., administration officials said at a news conference a few hours after the CDC's call.
`` Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who has been in the Hubei province in the previous 14 days will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine to ensure they're provided proper medical care and health screening, '' Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said.
The new coronavirus, which was discovered about a month ago, can spread before symptoms show, Messonnier said, citing a new report from the New England Journal of Medicine. The illness has quickly spread throughout mainland China, with 7,000 new cases confirmed over the last week and at least 213 deaths. World health officials previously said the virus is transmitted through human contact, in droplets released by coughing or sneezing and even by touching surfaces with germs.
The last time U.S. health officials issued a mandatory quarantine was in the 1960s during a smallpox outbreak, they said.
`` We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic but we are hopeful still that this is not and will not be the case, '' she said, adding that the tests for the virus aren't foolproof. `` This is a very serious public health situation and CDC and federal government has and will continue to take aggressive action to protect the public. ''
The passengers will be quarantined at the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County, California, during the incubation period, or 14 days, she said. They arrived in the U.S. from Wuhan on Wednesday and were screened multiple times and monitored throughout the flight, health officials said.
Messonnier said Wednesday that the CDC has 20 staff on hand to monitor their health. If any of the passengers begin to exhibit symptoms, they will be moved to a hospital, she said. Messonnier said the goal of the quarantine is to prevent `` as much as possible community spread '' of the coronavirus.
`` This is one of the tools in our toolbox to mitigate the potential impact of this novel virus on that United States, '' she said. `` We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic, but we are hopeful still that this is not and will not be the case. ''
Messonnier said the respiratory disease can be carried through droplets or through sneezing and coughing, confirming what World Health Organization officials told reporters earlier this week.
The virus `` has demonstrated the capacity to spread globally. This is a very serious public health situation and CDC and federal government has and will take aggressive action to protect the public, '' she said.
CDC officials said that they do not recommend the use of face masks, adding the risk of the virus to the American public is still low. `` Please do not let fear or panic guide your actions, '' Messonnier said.
On Thursday, U.S. health officials confirmed nation's first person-to-person transmission of the virus — the husband of a Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan. Public health officials also said they were monitoring 21 patients in Illinois for possible infections. | business |
Outlook for Monday: China market opens, Iowa caucuses, Alphabet earnings | Here's what you need to know before you head out for the weekend.
The Chinese stock market will open again on Monday after the Lunar New Year holiday. The break was extended as Chinese officials fought to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
U.S. stock indexes sold off and oil prices slumped further on Friday as fear grew that the outbreak would take a significant bite out of economic growth in China.
Major U.S. airlines canceled flights to Wuhan for the next several months on Friday, and the Center for Disease Control announced that it was quarantining travelers coming from the region.
The major Chinese exchanges have been closed since Jan. 24.
Voters will get their first say in the 2020 presidential race on Tuesday in Iowa's caucuses.
The results of the caucuses won't be known until well after the U.S. stock market closes on Monday, but new polls released over the weekend could shed new light on which candidates investors see as the likely opponent of President Donald Trump in the general election.
On the national level, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is virtually tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, according to the latest NBC News/WSJ poll. Both are seen as major contenders in Iowa.
Analysts and investors have raised concern about the proposed policies of Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, saying health care stocks are particularly vulnerable should either candidate win.
Google's parent company is the first of several major companies to release earnings next week. Alphabet will release its fourth-quarter results after the bell.
Andy Hargreaves of Key Banc Capital Markets said in a note to investors that he expects the tech giant to post net ad revenue growth of 17.7% and a 53.6% gross margin for the quarter.
Alphabet's earnings report comes after a mixed earnings season so far for large tech stocks. Shares of Apple and Amazon rose after their reports, but Facebook's stock fell as the social media company's costs rose.
This is the company's first earnings report since co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin announced they were stepping away from day-to-day management of the company in December.
Major events ( All times E.T.)
9:45 a.m. Markit PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m. Construction spending
2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey
2:00 p.m. Light vehicle sales
Major earnings
Alphabet ( after the bell)
— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this story. | business |
Siemens Healthineers supplies diagnostic equipment to Wuhan hospitals | - Germany's Siemens Healthineers has supplied two ultrasound machines and a CT scanner to the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of a rapidly-spreading virus epidemic.
A spokesman for the separately listed Siemens subsidiary said on Friday the diagnostic machines were delivered on short notice last week to two Wuhan hospitals.
The company did not mention financial terms but said it had donated one of the machines, a portable ultrasound scanner.
The death toll from the new coronavirus reached 213 on Friday, with China's central province of Hubei that is home to Wuhan accounting for most of the deaths, and the World Health Organization ( WHO) declared a global health emergency.
( Reporting by Alexander Huebner Writing by Ludwig Burger; Editing by Kirsten Donovan) | business |
Oil posts worst month since May as coronavirus fears weigh | Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, as markets grew more concerned about the economic damage of the new coronavirus that has spread from China to around 20 countries, killing more than 200 people.
Brent crude fell 21 cents to $ 58.08 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 58 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $ 51.56. WTI posted a fourth straight week of losses, and it was the contract's worst month since May.
Disruptions in supply chains and travel curbs are expected to weigh on China's economy, prompting economists to temper their growth expectations for the world's second-largest economy.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said on Friday the coronavirus outbreak is likely to hit China's economic growth by 0.4 percentage point in 2020 and will potentially drag the U.S. economy lower as well.
The virus outbreak could cut China's oil demand by more than 250,000 barrels per day ( bpd) in the first quarter of this year, analysts said.
Saudi Arabia has opened a discussion about moving an upcoming policy meeting to early February from March to address the impact of coronavirus on crude demand.
`` In our view, there still remains considerable uncertainty on the duration and economic impact of the virus, '' said Harry Tchilinguirian, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas in London.
`` As such, we are not sure what an emergency February OPEC meeting could effectively deliver other than the usual words of reassurance to the market that producers will act to balance the market. ''
China's New Year's holiday was due to end on Friday, when many companies planned to get back to work after a week-long vacation, but authorities have ordered businesses in many areas to stay shut longer in a bid to contain the disease.
Growth in Chinas factory activity faltered in January. The Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI) fell to 50.0 from 50.2 in December, Chinas National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS) said on Friday. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
A Reuters poll on Friday showed that oil prices will remain supported near current levels this year as political risks and OPEC-led output curbs help offset growing supply.
The poll of 50 economists and analysts was conducted mainly before the new coronavirus outbreak.
The WHO said late Thursday that the coronavirus outbreak was a global emergency, but calmed the markets by opposing travel restrictions. It said Chinese actions so far will `` reverse the tide '' of its spread.
`` The move has stoked optimism that there may be light at the end of the virus tunnel. This is because the declaration should pave the way for a coordinated international response to control the global spread of the disease, '' said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
However, Brennock added that oil prices will remain vulnerable to downward pressures `` until China reverses the virus tide ''. | business |
Coronavirus is public health emergency in US, Trump administration says | The Trump administration on Friday declared the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States, and announced that certain foreign nationals deemed to pose a risk of transmitting the disease will temporarily be denied entry to the U.S. Some returning American citizens potentially at risk will be quarantined.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said that President Donald Trump signed an order for the U.S. to deny entry to any foreign nationals who have traveled in China within the past two weeks, aside from the immediate family of U.S. citizens.
Azar, speaking to reporters at the White House, also said that any U.S. citizens who have been in China's Hubei province — home of Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus — within the last 14 days `` will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine to ensure they're provided proper medical care and health screening. '' Also starting Sunday, U.S. citizens returning from other parts of mainland China will also face screenings and two weeks of monitoring and self-quarantine.
The risk to the American public is `` low '' at this time, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Azar called the measures `` fairly incremental '' and `` appropriate, preventative steps. '' Yet, officials said they wanted to ensure it would remain a low risk to Americans.
Ken Cuccinelli, acting Homeland Security deputy secretary, another member of the White House task force on the coronavirus, said incoming flights from China will be limited to just seven airports — San Francisco, Los Angeles International Airport, Seattle, New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, Atlanta, Honolulu and Chicago's O'Hare — beginning Sunday.
The briefing came as markets plunged over fears about the fast-spreading virus ' potential economic impact.
The Trump administration officials noted a sharp drop in passenger traffic between the U.S. and China but that U.S.-bound traffic was more resilient as American citizens return. On Friday, U.S. airlines announced they would halt their mainland China service. Delta, United and American announced they would suspend all remaining service to mainland China after a State Department warning put a damper on demand for flights there.
Dozens of other large U.S. corporations, including Apple, Ford and Kraft Heinz, have already restricted their employees ' China business travel or scaled back operations because of the outbreak.
Air traffic between the U.S. and China has surged in the last decade. In 2009, there were more than 4,880 flights a year between the two countries and more than 17,760 last year, according to consulting firm ICF.
Dozens of airlines around the world have curtailed or halted China service, leaving the country increasingly isolated.
Airlines have said ticket sales for China have dropped sharply, a trend that will likely dent their first-quarter revenues.
The briefing included members of President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force, which includes national security advisor Robert O'Brien, Azar and other leading officials.
Earlier Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quarantined 195 Americans who have been evacuated from Wuhan.
As of Friday afternoon, the coronavirus had infected roughly 10,000 people across the globe. In China, the virus is responsible for at least 213 deaths.
Redfield added at the White House news briefing Friday that 191 people in the U.S. are being investigated for the disease.
Correction: Ken Cuccinelli is acting deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. An earlier version misstated his title. | business |
CDC officials confirm 7th US case of coronavirus, in California man | U.S. and California health officials confirmed the seventh U.S. case of the coronavirus that has sickened about 10,000 people across the globe and killed at least 213.
The Santa Clara Public Health Department said Friday that a man who lives outside San Francisco tested positive for the coronavirus. The patient contracted the virus in Wuhan, China, and has been isolated at home since, county officials said at a press conference.
`` We 've been preparing for this possibility for weeks, '' Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said. `` Although we do understand this confirmed case may raise concerns, this one case in fact does not change the risk to the general public. ''
The news came the same day U.S. health officials quarantined 195 Americans in California who were evacuated from Wuhan earlier this week and the Trump administration declared a federal health emergency.
`` We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic, but we are hopeful still that this is not and will not be the case, '' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conference call with reporters Friday. `` While we recognize this is an unprecedented action, we are facing an unprecedented public health threat. ''
Trump administration officials earlier Friday said they were issuing mandatory quarantines for any U.S. citizens who have visited Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, in the last 14 days. Travel restrictions were also being issued for anyone who visited elsewhere in mainland China over the previous two weeks. The administration plans to deny entry to foreign nationals who `` pose a risk of transmitting '' the virus in the U.S., administration officials said at a news conference a few hours after the CDC's call.
This story is developing. Check back for updates. | business |
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