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The Coronavirus Questions That Scientists Are Racing to Answer | The outbreak of a novel coronavirus in China and its spread to more than a dozen countries has presented health experts with a rapidly evolving and complex challenge.
That means there are a lot of unknowns.
Here are some of the outstanding questions that doctors, scientists, and health agencies are rushing to answer. ( And a reminder that, already, they’ ve learned quite a lot.)
One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 was that people weren’ t contagious until they developed symptoms. The same is true of MERS. As a result, it became easier for health officials to try to limit spread once they identified a new case.
Public health experts watching this outbreak unfold have been hoping 2019-nCoV, which is a member of the same virus family, would follow that pattern. Now they’ re not so sure.
Chinese health authorities said over the weekend they’ ve recorded cases where transmission occurred before the transmitting person showed symptoms. If that’ s a common feature of this infection, it’ s going to cause serious problems.
With some viral illnesses — like influenza for example — people can actually start infecting the people around them a day or two before they start to feel sick. That’ s insidious, because it means infected people can go to work, take the subway, go to church or to the movies — unaware that they are emitting viruses that can infect others.
In the past few days several papers from China describing the illness have been published or posted on preprint websites ( sites that share papers before they have been peer-reviewed or published in journals). In a paper posted to bioRxiv, scientists from Guangdong province estimated the incubation period — the time from infection to symptoms — to average between four and five days, which was also the case with SARS. There is clearly a range, though; on Monday, the WHO said the information to date suggests two to 10 days.
Another paper, published last Friday in The Lancet, estimated the incubation period in a cluster of six family members to be three to six days. These estimates are compatible and suggest it takes a few days for people to start feeling ill — which explains how a number of travelers who have brought the virus to other countries only realized they were sick a day or two after getting home.
Most diseases have a spectrum of illness, ranging sometimes from asymptomatic infection — symptom free — to very severe disease and death. But some diseases tend to tilt toward one end of the spectrum.
With SARS, most of the cases were seriously ill. While that was bad for anyone infected, it made detecting where the virus was spreading easier. In this outbreak, it’ s starting to look like there are mild and even asymptomatic cases.
How often they occur still isn’ t clear. Nor is it known yet if they are able to transmit the virus, or how often they do. With some illnesses, mild and asymptomatic cases don’ t contribute much to spread.
The reports emerging suggest a pretty significant portion of cases are seriously ill. For instance, in a report China’ s national health authorities posted Monday, about 17% of total cases were severely ill. And about 3% of confirmed cases had died.
Those are frightening numbers. But if the confirmed cases represent only a fraction of the total cases — and they likely do — that could really change the math. Until we have a better handle on the total number of cases it’ s premature to draw conclusions.
It’ s hard to get a clear picture.
On Monday, infectious diseases experts from Hong Kong University said they believe the virus is now transmitting person-to-person, in a sustained way, in all major cities in mainland China.
Epidemiologists who use mathematical modeling to calculate disease spread have been looking at how many cases have been found in other countries. There are formulas that give you an idea of how many infections probably occurred in China before a case was exported.
As of Sunday, when the number of exported cases was approaching 60, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London estimated there were likely already 100,000 cases in China. But that was two days ago.
Ferguson told STAT it’ s getting hard to run that calculation, “ given the exit screening and then quarantine of Wuhan, ” the central Chinese city where the outbreak is believed to have started.
To date, about 14 countries and territories outside of mainland China have detected cases, but none has yet reported seeing sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus.
Nothing like this has ever been tried before.
During the 2003 SARS outbreak, the World Health Organization issued what were called “ travel advisories ” — telling people around the world not to go to affected cities. The travel advisories, which the WHO has never used since, were loathed by the locations battling SARS, which saw tourism dry up and hotel vacancies soar. Though they certainly had the desired effect of driving away tourists, the travel advisories were advice only.
In China, this isn’ t advice. The country is cutting off travel between cities. Is it possible to enforce? Can the Chinese economy sustain this? Big, big unknowns right now.
And will these measures stop the spread of the disease? When draconian restrictions are imposed, desperate people tend to use underground efforts to get around them. Still, spread of the virus may happen at a lower or slower rate than if the measures weren’ t put into place.
In the end, it may turn out these measures were imposed too late. Analysis of the genetic sequences of viruses from more than two dozen cases suggest the virus had been transmitting person-to-person for a couple of months now — maybe starting in November or early December.
Now that the virus appears to be spreading effectively among people, tracking down the initial source has become secondary to trying to contain the outbreak. But both as a scientific curiosity and for possible insights about how to prevent the next outbreak, it’ s useful to know when and how the virus started infecting people.
Early in the outbreak, local authorities in Wuhan said that most of the early cases were linked in some way to a large seafood market that also had live animals for meat. This seemed like a logical source for the outbreak; coronaviruses can jump from animals to infect people. These viruses are thought to originate in bats, but can use a middleman as they hopscotch to humans. The 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, for example, was traced to palm civets, while MERS infections come from camels.
But then last week, in some of the first analyses of the initial cases, a team of researchers reported that the first patient in Wuhan hospitalized with pneumonia caused by the virus had no tie to the market. The patient’ s symptoms also started a week earlier than later cases who were tied to the market.
That raises several possibilities: Perhaps the virus was spreading among people earlier than first noticed or reported by Wuhan health officials, and that one of these patients brought the virus to the market. Or, perhaps there was a group of infected animals that could have seeded the outbreak at different locations.
Republished with permission from STAT. This article originally appeared on January 28, 2020 | science |
Stopping the Coronavirus: Have We Learned the Lessons from SARS? - Scientific American Blog Network | I’ m feeling ill. Not from the new coronavirus, thankfully, but because the mysterious disease’ s alarming spread closely resembles the 2003 outbreak of SARS, which killed more than 770 people worldwide within a year. When SARS erupted, I was reading galleys of The New Killer Diseases, a book I had co-written with Boston University microbiologist Elinor Levy, and we had to scramble to add a new opening chapter on the emerging lessons of the outbreak. Big mistakes by Chinese health officials and politicians allowed SARS to spread. And based on published reports about the new coronavirus through January 28, 2020, I feel sick to say that China, and perhaps even the World Health Organization ( WHO), may be repeating some of those mistakes. Here are five takeaways, followed by my reasoning further below.
1. Admitting there is a problem: Although China acknowledged the coronavirus much sooner than it did SARS, it still waited too long, allowing infected people to spread the pathogen widely. As of today, 106 people have died in China, and nearly 60 cases have been confirmed in at least 14 other countries.
2. Sharing genetic information: Chinese health officials did promptly release the genetic sequences of virus collected from patients, allowing faster diagnoses globally.
3. Declaring a global health emergency: The WHO has not done so, but it should, because superspreaders—lone individuals who are highly contagious and could infect large numbers of people—are just coming to light. They made SARS a global calamity. Reluctance might also arise because the novel coronavirus does not seem to spread readily from person to person. That was the case for SARS—until the virus mutated and infected people.
4. Eliminating the source: China has to finally shut down live animal markets, where the new coronavirus and SARS—as well as bird flu—have jumped from animals to people.
5. Naming this villain: “ Coronavirus ” is a family of viruses that includes SARS and forms of the common cold. Putting a distinct label on this particular strain will sharply focus people’ s attention, from doctors on Main Street to leaders at the highest levels of government.
The first SARS cases were identified in southern China in November 2002, but the world knew almost nothing until a retired Chinese army doctor blew the whistle in early 2003. The virus was already coursing worldwide by then. Other nations slammed China for covering up information, which it later admitted it had done, supposedly to keep people calm. Ultimately, the national government apologized, and politicians and officials at various levels were fired or resigned.
This time around, officials in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus was first detected, downplayed the risks. They did not institute screening measures until a month after the first case was found, according to CNN. During that time, citizens were reportedly arrested for spreading “ rumors ” about the start of a new disease like SARS, and journalists who were trying to report on the outbreak later said they were detained or threatened. Finally, President Xi Jinping ordered that the virus be “ resolutely contained. ” Although health authorities had already shut down the animal market, and the genome sequences had already been shared, much greater preventive actions suddenly began.
One widely recognized problem in China is that local leaders, who can have great autonomy, do not want to displease national officials. Officials in Wuhan had done the muzzling so their regions did not seem unstable. Instability rankles authoritarian governments; civil unrest is their greatest enemy.
The problem with secrecy, of course, is that the rest of the world doesn’ t know it is being infected. Steps to contain a pathogen’ s spread come too late, medical care and potential vaccines are delayed, and people die.
All that said, Chinese scientists and doctors quickly sequenced the new coronavirus and gave the genetic information to the WHO on December 31, 2019. The WHO shared details 10 days later on the National Institutes of Health’ s GenBank, a widely used international database. This action, in turn, allowed experts to determine that the new virus was akin to SARS and had likely leaped to humans from animals.
Gene sequencing is much more efficient than it was in 2003, but the greater lesson is that researchers need fast and unfettered access. The world did not learn of the SARS virus’ s details until a doctor named Carlo Urbani, who worked at a regional WHO office, examined patients and alerted his colleague at the WHO’ s headquarters in Geneva. Sadly, Urbani contracted the virus and died a month later.
As I write, the WHO has not declared the new coronavirus an international health emergency. This is an official proclamation it makes rarely, reserved for the worst threats. The health reason is that thus far, the vast majority of patients are inside China, so the threat is not yet “ global. ” And the philosophical reason is that a boy who cries wolf too often is ignored.
I certainly do not claim to have greater insight than experts at the WHO, but two factors seem important: SARS traveled like wildfire in part because of superspreaders. One young woman who checked into a Singapore hospital after returning from Hong Kong infected 20 nurses and patients. A similar scenario happened in Toronto. Reports about superspreaders of the new coronavirus are unclear thus far, although an article published in Nature on January 21 said Zhong Nanshan, who directs the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease in Guangzhou, China, confirmed that 14 medical workers had been infected by one virus carrier.
Another part of the WHO’ s reluctance may be that the virus does not seem highly transmissible from person to person. But it took the SARS virus a little while to figure out how to do this. Viruses can mutate as they spread, and virulence can change quickly. Zhong, who is the lead investigator of the novel coronavirus—and who helped reveal the SARS epidemic—confirmed on Chinese state-run TV that at least two cases had been spread human-to-human, according to an article published by CNN. On January 26 China’ s health minister Ma Xiaowei warned that the virus seemed to be becoming more transmissible, according to STAT, the online medical news publication. On January 28 CNN reported that Germany and Japan had confirmed there were patients who tested positive for the virus who had not visited Wuhan.
China has to shut down the live animal markets. This outcry came after SARS and bird flu, yet the markets continue.
The markets are a traditional part of China’ s culture and of local economies, so the step can not be taken lightly. And it may seem draconian. Then again, China has, at times, ordered the mass slaughter of thousands or even millions of birds when they are found to carry a pathogen that threatens humans. Influenza viruses that often start in China and travel the world over—a major factor in which flu strains are included in the annual vaccine—can spread in these markets as well.
Markets have also been implicated in Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS), another deadly coronavirus. It jumped from camels to humans in 2012, but one recently published paper suggests that this transmission occurred more frequently when camels lingered next to animal markets in Saudi Arabia. By the way, researchers ultimately determined that SARS jumped to humans from civet cats, which were routinely sold in China’ s live animal markets.
This new pathogen needs a name. Technically, it is called 2019-nCOV, short for “ 2019 novel coronavirus. ” This odd acronym means nothing to the average person, and “ new coronavirus ” is too generic. A clear name helps people focus. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses usually decides on one, although right now, it seems the WHO may take the lead.
Health officials who work at such organizations are rightfully cautious, because they don’ t want to incorrectly characterize a pathogen; once a name goes out, it sticks. When an unnamed pathogen broke out in New York City, officials were close to calling it another case of Saint Louis encephalitis, but a closer examination determined it was something new, which they finally termed West Nile virus. Ironically, the taxonomy committee and the WHO do not like to name pathogens after places or people, because doing so can disparage a family or region. So the name Wuhan virus, or Wu flu, which is going around social media, will not likely win out. That’ s the problem, though: if officials don’ t act soon, and some other moniker does catch on, confusion could be worse instead of better.
There is certainly middle ground for quick action with sufficient specificity. SARS stands for “ severe acute respiratory syndrome ” —an acronym that is unique yet still scientifically safe. | science |
How Do Bats Live With So Many Viruses? | If previous outbreaks of coronavirus are any indication, the Wuhan strain that is now spreading may eventually be traced back to bats.
Dr. Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, who has been working in China for 15 years studying diseases that jump from animals to people, said, “ We don’ t know the source yet, but there’ s pretty strong evidence that this is a bat origin coronavirus. ” He said, “ It’ s probably going to be the Chinese horseshoe bat, ” a common species that weighs up to an ounce.
If he’ s right, this strain will join many other viruses that bats carry. SARS and MERS epidemics were caused by bat coronaviruses, as was a highly destructive viral epidemic in pigs.
One bat can host many different viruses without getting sick. They are the natural reservoir for the Marburg virus, and Nipah and Hendra viruses, which have caused human disease and outbreaks in Africa, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Australia. They are thought to be the natural reservoir for the Ebola virus. They also carry the rabies virus, but in that case the bats are affected by the disease.
Their tolerance of viruses, which surpasses that of other mammals, is one of their many distinctive qualities. They are the only flying mammals, they devour disease-carrying insects by the ton, and they are essential in the pollination of many fruits, like bananas, avocados and mangoes. They are also an incredibly diverse group, making up about a quarter of all mammalian species.
But their ability to coexist with viruses that can spill over to other animals, in particular humans, can have devastating consequences when we eat them, trade them in livestock markets and invade their territory.
Learning how they carry and survive so many viruses has been a deep question for science, and new research suggests that the answer may be how the bats’ evolutionary adaptations to flight changed their immune systems.
In a 2018 paper in Cell Host and Microbe, scientists in China and Singapore reported their investigation of how bats handle something called DNA sensing. The energy demands of flight are so great that cells in the body break down and release bits of DNA that are then floating around where they shouldn’ t be. Mammals, including bats, have ways to identify and respond to such bits of DNA, which might indicate an invasion of a disease-causing organism. But in bats, they found, evolution has weakened that system, which would normally cause inflammation as it fought the viruses.
Bats have lost some genes involved in that response, which makes sense because the inflammation itself can be very damaging to the body. They have a weakened response but it is still there. Thus, the researchers write, this weakened response may allow them to maintain a “ balanced state of ‘ effective response’ but not ‘ over response’ against viruses. ”
How to manage and contain the current outbreak of the virus officially known as 2019-nCoV, is, of course, of paramount importance now. But tracing its origin and taking action to combat further outbreaks may depend partly on knowledge and monitoring of bats. “ The outbreak can be contained and controlled, ” Dr. Daszak said. “ But if we don’ t know the origin in the long term then this virus can continue to spill over. ”
Scientists in China were already studying the bats carefully, well aware that an outbreak like the current one would most likely happen.
Last spring, in an article on bat coronaviruses, or CoVs, a group of Chinese researchers wrote that “ it is generally believed that batborne CoVs will re-emerge to cause the next disease outbreak. ” They added, “ In this regard, China is a likely hot spot. ” This wasn’ t clairvoyance, but conventional wisdom.
Certainly, rodents, primates and birds also carry diseases that can jump and have jumped to people; bats are far from alone in that regard. But there are reasons they have been implicated in several disease outbreaks and are likely to be implicated in more.
They are numerous and widespread. While bats account for a quarter of mammalian species, rodents are 50 percent, and then there’ s the rest of us. Bats live on every continent except Antarctica, in proximity to humans and farms. The ability to fly makes them wide-ranging, which helps in spreading viruses, and their feces can spread disease.
People in many parts of the world eat bats, and sell them in live animal markets, which was the source of SARS, and possibly the latest coronavirus outbreak that began in Wuhan. They also often live in huge colonies in caves, where crowded conditions are ideal for passing viruses to one another.
In a 2017 report in Nature, Dr. Daszak, Kevin J. Olival and other colleagues from EcoHealth Alliance, reported that they had created a database of 754 mammal species and 586 viral species, and analyzed which viruses were harbored by which mammals and how they affected their hosts.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
They confirmed what scientists had thought: “ Bats are host to a significantly higher proportion of zoonoses than all other mammalian orders. ” Zoonoses are diseases that spill over from animals to humans.
And they don’ t just survive the viruses they harbor. Bats are remarkably long-lived for small mammals. The big brown bat, a common species in the United States, can live nearly 20 years in the wild. Others live closer to 40. One tiny bat in Siberia lived at least 41 years. Animals like house mice live about two years on average.
While the bats must be studied, their physiology understood, and the viruses they harbor monitored for the sake of public health, that does not mean that the bats are to blame for the outbreak. As others have pointed out, humans have encroached on the lives of bats, not vice versa.
Dr. Daszak stressed that stopping the sale of wildlife in markets is essential to curtail future outbreaks. But since such outbreaks are inevitable, Dr. Daszak says, monitoring and studying wildlife, like bats, is equally important. He compared the situation to terrorism. Both terrorist attacks and disease outbreaks seem inevitable. To get a jump on them, he said, intelligence is vital. | business |
Coronavirus: Death Toll Climbs, and So Does the Number of Infections |
As the outbreak of the mysterious new coronavirus rapidly spreads, the Chinese authorities said on Wednesday that the official count of known cases jumped again overnight, with the death toll now exceeding 130.
◆ China said on Wednesday that 132 people had died from the virus, which is believed to have originated in the central city of Wuhan and is spreading across the country. The previous count, on Tuesday, was 106.
◆ The number of confirmed cases increased to 5,974 on Wednesday, up from 4,515 on Tuesday, according to the National Health Commission.
◆ Most of the confirmed cases have been in the central Chinese province of Hubei, where several cities, including Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been placed under what amounts to a lockdown.
◆ Thailand has reported 14 cases of infection; Hong Kong has eight; the United States, Taiwan, Australia and Macau have five each; Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia each have reported four; Japan has seven; France has four; Canada has three; Vietnam has two; and Nepal, Cambodia and Germany each have one. There have been no deaths outside China.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
The United States is expanding the screening of travelers arriving from Wuhan — to 20 airports and land crossings, from five airports, federal officials said on Tuesday.
“ Right now, there is no spread of this virus in our communities at home, ” said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a news briefing in Washington.
“ The coming days and weeks are likely to bring more cases including the possibility of person-to-person spread, ” he said. “ Our goal is to contain this virus and prevent sustained spread of the virus in our country. ”
[ A plane carrying Americans is leaving from Wuhan. If you know anyone on board, or anyone trying to leave Wuhan, we would like to hear from you for a coming article. Please contact Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan @ nytimes.com to share your story. ]
Officials also announced that after repeated offers of assistance, Chinese authorities agreed on Tuesday to allow in teams of international experts, coordinated by the World Health Organization, to help with research and containment.
“ Americans should know this is a potentially very serious public health threat, but at this point Americans should not worry for their own safety, ” said Alex M. Azar, secretary of health and human services, at the briefing.
Scientists in the United States, Australia and at least three companies are working on vaccine candidates to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
Government scientists as well as those working at Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals are all working quickly to develop a vaccine.
The hunt began Jan. 10, when Chinese scientists posted the genetic makeup of the virus on a public database. The next morning, researchers at the National Institutes of Health’ s Vaccine Research Center in Maryland went to work. Within hours, they had pinpointed the letters of the genetic code that could be used to make a vaccine.
Historically, vaccines have been one of the greatest public health tools to prevent disease. But even as technology, genomics and global coordination have improved, allowing researchers to move at top speed, vaccine development remains an expensive and risky process.
The number of infections and deaths related to the outbreak of a mysterious virus in China keeps rising, but economic analysts have counseled caution, saying it’ s too soon to ring alarms about the impact on the global economy.
Even so, individually, some American companies with a sizable presence in China are feeling the strain. Starbucks, for example, announced on Tuesday that it was temporarily shuttering half of its locations there.
“ The magnitude of the impact will depend on the duration of store closures as we work with local authorities to manage the situation and protect our partners and customers, ” Pat Grismer, chief financial officer, said during an earnings call.
Other companies that closed stores there included McDonald’ s and Yum China, the country’ s largest restaurant company, which operates the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands in China and also controls its own brands.
Travel restrictions in China and screening at airports in other countries have also disrupted plans. United Airlines announced today that it was suspending some flights. American Airlines stock fell more than 5 percent on Tuesday.
Hotels and resorts with properties in the affected areas, which include Macau, a special administrative region and gambling mecca, like Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts International also saw the value of their shares sink. Marriott, Hyatt and Hilton which have several properties in China also saw their stock prices slide.
Other brands that are popular in China, like Estee Lauder, Nike and Tapestry, which sells Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman, are likely to see a dent in earnings, bank analysts said.
Anxiety about sales spread to Chinese tech companies including Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu.
China is the world’ s second largest economy.
A charter plane hired by the Japanese government to evacuate citizens from Wuhan landed at a Tokyo airport Wednesday morning.
Outside, tour buses — with drivers in sanitary masks — and some ambulances waited to accept the 206 passengers. Japanese news media reported that one of the passengers had a fever and one was coughing.
In a news conference late Tuesday, Japanese authorities said that people who showed symptoms would be transferred directly to a hospital, while those who appeared healthy would be tested for the virus and then asked to quarantine themselves for two weeks.
The flight left Tokyo Tuesday night carrying medical supplies requested by the Chinese government to help fight the viral outbreak that has put Wuhan and other cities on lockdown.
At another news conference, two of the passengers expressed relief at being back in Japan.
Authorities plan to send a second plane Wednesday night to Wuhan, where around 450 Japanese citizens still await evacuation.
United Airlines said on Tuesday that it will reduce flights between the United States and Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai because of a “ significant decline in demand. ”
United said in a statement that it would cut flights starting Feb. 1, through Feb. 8. The suspension will affect 24 flights.
“ We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops and will adjust our schedule as needed, ” United said.
Delta Air Lines and American Airlines have not yet cut flights to China, but have said they are closely monitoring the situation there as the coronavirus spreads.
A fourth case of the new coronavirus was confirmed in France, Jérôme Salomon, an official in the health ministry, announced on Tuesday.
The patient is a tourist from Hubei province, Mr. Salomon said. He was in serious condition in the intensive care unit of a Paris hospital, and the authorities were seeking out anyone who had been in close contact with the man, who is in his eighties.
The previously identified cases affected a 48-year-old man in Bordeaux and a 31-year-old man and 30-year-old woman in Paris.
France is also working with China to repatriate French citizens in Wuhan, with a first flight scheduled for later in the week. Agnès Buzyn, France’ s health minister, said on Tuesday that about 500 to 1,000 French citizens could qualify.
Those who return without any symptoms will be quarantined for 14 days, and those who present possible symptoms will be hospitalized.
Other European countries have also asked France to help bring back some of their own citizens on those flights, Ms. Buzyn said.
Health officials on Tuesday reported what appear to be the first known cases of human-to-human transmission of the virus in Europe — specifically, in Germany — and in Japan. Another case was recently reported in Vietnam.
The cases show that countries across the world are now faced with the task of limiting the spread of the disease on their own soil, not just seeking to identify and quarantine ailing patients who had traveled from China.
Japan’ s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said the first Japanese national — and the sixth person in Japan overall — to be diagnosed with the coronavirus was a man in his 60s. He had never been to Wuhan, but he had worked as a bus driver earlier this month for two different group tours from that city, officials said.
The man began experiencing symptoms on Jan. 14, was hospitalized on Saturday and was confirmed to have the coronavirus on Tuesday.
The infected German, whose case was also confirmed on Tuesday, is a 33-year-old man from Bavaria who had been in contact with a Chinese woman in Germany, officials said. The woman was diagnosed with the virus after flying home to China. The man was in good condition, German officials said.
“ It was to be expected that the virus would come to Germany, ” Jens Spahn, Germany’ s health minister, said in a statement on Tuesday. “ But the Bavarian case shows us that we are well prepared. ”
The World Health Organization said on Friday that there appeared to have been a case of human-to-human transmission in Vietnam, where a person who had never been to China, but who had a relative who had visited Wuhan, was confirmed to have the virus.
Hong Kong on Tuesday put in place a broad series of restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the coronavirus by limiting the number of mainland Chinese travelers entering the territory, one of Asia’ s busiest travel and financial hubs.
The restrictions — which included the suspension of high-speed and other train services between Hong Kong and the mainland, a 50 percent reduction in the number of flights — and a ban on tourism visas for many travelers — were announced by Carrie Lam, the city’ s chief executive.
The regulations, which apply to some plane, rail, bus and ferry arrivals, will begin on Thursday. They follow days of rising pressure from health care workers, epidemiologists and even pro-Beijing politicians who have traditionally supported Mrs. Lam’ s government.
Hong Kong has so far recorded eight confirmed cases of the virus.
Tibet, the only region in China that has yet to report any cases, has temporarily closed all tourist sites, state news media reported. Major Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, have suspended long-distance bus services.
The medical faculty of the Chinese University of Hong Kong called for more restrictions on border checkpoints as the virus spreads across China.
Workers from Hong Kong’ s Hospital Authority have planned a strike for next week to demand a law requiring the wearing of masks in public and banning all visitors from entering the city through the mainland.
Numerous African countries are shoring up coronavirus screening efforts at major airports, and samples from at least five potentially infected patients were being tested.
Ethiopia’ s state minister of health confirmed on Tuesday that four potential cases were isolated in the capital, Addis Ababa, pending laboratory tests. On Monday, officials in Ivory Coast said they were testing a suspected case related to a female student who had traveled from Beijing to the capital, Abidjan.
The epidemic comes as travel between China and African states has increased at a rapid pace. As Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic, economic and political support for African states, Chinese firms and migrants have been setting up shop in cities from Nairobi to Johannesburg.
Data from the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University put the number of official Chinese workers as of 2017 at over 202,000. African entrepreneurs have moved to Chinese cities, while African students now make up a large percentage of the foreign student body in China.
On Tuesday, Kenya Airways announced that the health authorities had quarantined a passenger who traveled from Guangzhou.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Because of the Chinese New Year celebration, “ a good number of African students living in Wuhan or Hubei traveled home before the extent of the virus became clear, ” said Hannah Ryder, chief executive of the Beijing-headquartered consultancy Development Reimagined.
“ It’ s unclear how exposed they may have been and if governments have the resources to check on them, ” she said.
The World Health Organization revised its global risk assessment for the coronavirus outbreak from “ moderate ” to “ high, ” but concealed the change in a footnote buried in a report published on Monday.
The change to the report, which coincided with a visit to China by the organization’ s director-general, risked confusing the public about the severity of the outbreak, which has killed more than 100 people in China and been found in at least 14 countries.
In a statement, the organization said the director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and Chinese officials “ discussed measures to protect the health of Chinese and foreigners in outbreak areas, including possible alternatives to evacuation of foreigners if there are ways to accommodate them and protect their health. ”
Chinese state-run media reported that Dr. Tedros met with President Xi Jinping of China and spoke highly of Chinese efforts. Mr. Xi urged the health organization to assess the epidemic in an “ objective, fair, calm and rational manner. ”
In Hubei, medical workers have complained about a desperate need for resources to treat thousands of patients who have at times overwhelmed hospitals.
The group, which is a United Nations body, was criticized when it refused twice in recent days to declare the outbreak a global emergency, despite its spread.
A shortage of medical kits in China needed to quickly diagnose the coronavirus has slowed the country’ s ability to respond to the outbreak and fueled concerns that the number of cases has been underreported.
China’ s Medical Products Administration said on Sunday that it had approved four new virus detection kits, including one that sequences the genetic makeup of the disease.
But China’ s three leading medical device manufacturers said they did not have the capacity to quickly produce the products, according to state news media reports.
Residents in Wuhan who arrived at hospitals to seek testing were told that medical workers did not have the kits needed to confirm a diagnosis.
“ For any new emerging virus, most local hospitals or public health laboratories will not able to make a diagnosis ” said Yuen Kwok-yung, the chairman of the infectious diseases department at Hong Kong University. “ Thus many cases will not be investigated at all if they are mild. ”
A woman in Wuhan told The South China Morning Post that her uncle learned he had viral pneumonia after a CT scan, but that the doctor could not confirm it was the new virus because no testing kits were available.
China may have to rely on outside technical support as front line responders battle to contain the virus’ s spread, experts said. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation said Sunday that it would commit $ 5 million to help China respond to the crisis, including “ efforts to identify and confirm cases. ”
As the outbreak continues to spread, global companies have begun to limit their workers’ travel to mainland China, and China’ s biggest companies have urged employees to work from home.
On Monday, health officials in the United States urged travelers to avoid any nonessential travel to China, and many companies cited that as justification for internal travel bans. The new guidance, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned that transportation in and out of Hubei Province, the center of the outbreak, is restricted, and that there is “ limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. ”
Companies with large operations or interest in China, like General Motors, Honeywell, Bloomberg and Facebook, have all warned employees not to travel within mainland China in a flurry of emails in recent days.
Honeywell, which has offices and operations across China, said it had restricted travel to certain regions, without specifying them. A spokesperson for General Motors said the company had issued a global ban on travel to China, under which only “ business-critical ” travel would be allowed.
Bloomberg told its employees in Hong Kong and mainland China to work remotely until further notice, and it barred other employees from traveling to either place for the next 30 days, according to an email seen by The New York Times. Facebook said it asked all employees to suspend nonessential travel and asked those who had recently been in China to work from home for a period of time.
The authorities in China have extended the Lunar New Year holiday to Feb. 3, and some of China’ s biggest cities have gone further, telling businesses not to open until the next week. The country’ s biggest technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, Sina, Maimai, Netease and Didi, told employees to work from home from Feb. 3 to Feb. 10.
Netease, an internet and entertainment platform, asked employees returning from another city within China to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
After sharp losses around the world on Monday, investors on Tuesday continued to assess the long-term economic effects of the coronavirus epidemic.
The verdict was mixed. Investors abandoned stocks in Asia, while markets in Europe steadied. In the United States, the S & P 500 was up more than 1 percent on Tuesday.
Many of Asia’ s stock markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, but those that were open — Japan’ s and South Korea’ s — fell as futures trading in China slumped. Money poured into safe-haven assets like gold and pushed up the value of the United States dollar.
Hong Kong’ s stock market will reopen on Wednesday. In China, where authorities have extended the New Year holiday by a week, the major exchanges in Shenzhen and Shanghai said they would remain closed until Feb. 3.
“ The coronavirus is the No. 1 threat to financial markets currently as global investors are becoming jittery on the uncertainty, ” said Nigel Gre, the founder of the investment group deVere Group.
Some of the last passengers who arrived at Kennedy International Airport before direct flights from Wuhan were canceled have quarantined themselves at home.
Scott Liu, 56, who leads an association for immigrants from Hubei, said he confined himself to his house in Queens. He said he and his fellow passengers on the Wuhan flight learned of the lockdown in that city mid-flight.
He said he has not felt sick, but is taking precautions because he knows symptoms take time to appear. His friends have dropped off on his doorstep traditional Lunar New Year dishes like lotus root and pork rib soup, salted fish and dumplings. Last year, they were host to a big New Year celebration at a banquet hall in Flushing.
This year, Mr. Liu said, “ all the events here are canceled. ”
“ Everybody is in a state of panic, ” he added.
Reporting was contributed by Chris Buckley, Russell Goldman, Elaine Yu, Raymond Zhong, Austin Ramzy, Sui-Lee Wee, Alexandra Stevenson, Cao Li, Eimi Yamamitsu, Tiffany May, Joseph Goldstein, Jeffrey E. Singer, Peter S. Goodman, Roni Caryn Rabin, Motoko Rich, Paul Mozur, Christopher F. Schuetze, Abdi Latif Dahir, Simon Marks, Ben Dooley, Eimi Yamamitsu, Patricia Cohen and Aurelien Breeden. Jin Wu, Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Amber Wang, Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
Bolton Was Concerned That Trump Did Favors for Autocratic Leaders, Book Says | WASHINGTON — John R. Bolton, the former national security adviser, privately told Attorney General William P. Barr last year that he had concerns that President Trump was effectively granting personal favors to the autocratic leaders of Turkey and China, according to an unpublished manuscript by Mr. Bolton.
Mr. Barr responded by pointing to a pair of Justice Department investigations of companies in those countries and said he was worried that Mr. Trump had created the appearance that he had undue influence over what would typically be independent inquiries, according to the manuscript. Backing up his point, Mr. Barr mentioned conversations Mr. Trump had with the leaders, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and President Xi Jinping of China.
Mr. Bolton’ s account underscores the fact that the unease about Mr. Trump’ s seeming embrace of authoritarian leaders, long expressed by experts and his opponents, also existed among some of the senior cabinet officers entrusted by the president to carry out his foreign policy and national security agendas.
Mr. Bolton recounted his discussion with Mr. Barr in a draft of an unpublished book manuscript that he submitted nearly a month ago to the White House for review. People familiar with the manuscript described its contents on the condition of anonymity.
The book also contains an account of Mr. Trump telling Mr. Bolton in August that he wanted to continue freezing $ 391 million in security assistance to Ukraine until officials there helped with investigations of political rivals, The New York Times reported on Sunday. The matter is at the heart of the articles of impeachment against the president.
Early Tuesday, the Justice Department’ s spokeswoman, Kerri Kupec, posted a statement on Twitter disputing aspects of Mr. Bolton’ s account.
“ There was no discussion of ‘ personal favors’ or ‘ undue influence’ on investigations, nor did Attorney General Barr state that the President’ s conversations with foreign leaders was improper, ” the statement said. “ If this is truly what Mr. Bolton has written, then it seems he is attributing to Attorney General Barr his own current views — views with which Attorney General Barr does not agree. ”
A spokesman for the National Security Council declined to comment on Mr. Barr’ s conversations with Mr. Bolton. In a statement on Monday, Mr. Bolton, his publisher and his literary agency said they had not shared the manuscript with The Times.
“ There was absolutely no coordination with The New York Times or anyone else regarding the appearance of information about his book, ‘ The Room Where It Happened,’ at online booksellers, ” Mr. Bolton, Simon & Schuster and Javelin said in a joint statement. “ Any assertion to the contrary is unfounded speculation. ”
Dean Baquet, the executive editor of The Times, responded that “ The Times does not discuss its sources, but I should point out that no one has questioned the accuracy of our report. ”
Mr. Bolton wrote in the manuscript that Mr. Barr singled out Mr. Trump’ s conversations with Mr. Xi about the Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE, which agreed in 2017 to plead guilty and pay heavy fines for violating American sanctions on doing business with North Korea, Iran and other countries. A year later, Mr. Trump lifted the sanctions over objections from his own advisers and Republican lawmakers.
Mr. Barr also cited remarks Mr. Trump made to Mr. Erdogan in 2018 about the investigation of Halkbank, Turkey’ s second-largest state-owned bank. The Justice Department was scrutinizing Halkbank on fraud and money-laundering charges for helping Iran evade sanctions imposed by the Treasury Department.
Mr. Erdogan had been making personal appeals to Mr. Trump to use his authority to halt any additional enforcement against the bank. In 2018, Mr. Erdogan told reporters in Turkey that Mr. Trump had promised to instruct cabinet members to follow through on the matter. The bank had hired a top Republican fund-raiser to lobby the administration on the issue.
For months, it looked as though the unusual lobbying effort might succeed; but in October, the Justice Department indicted the bank for aiding Iran. The charges were seen in part as an attempt by the administration to show that it was taking a tough line on Turkey amid an outcry over Mr. Trump’ s endorsement of its incursions in Syria.
transcript
From The New York Times, I’ m Michael Barbaro. This is “ The Daily. ”
Today: A Times investigation reveals a firsthand account from John Bolton directly linking President Trump to the quid pro quo at the center of the impeachment. Maggie Haberman and Mike Schmidt on what that could mean for the final phase of the Senate trial.
It’ s Tuesday, January 28.
Mike, Maggie, remind us when the discussion of John Bolton as a possible witness in the impeachment process starts.
So John Bolton left the White House in early September. Trump said he was fired. Bolton said he resigned. A week later, we learn about the whistleblower’ s complaint, and at that point, questions start to percolate. Why did Bolton resign, and what does he know? And in the coming weeks, as the House impeachment investigators summon White House officials to answer questions, we start to get different slivers —
Bolton’ s former aide, that’ s Fiona Hill, testified yesterday before House impeachment investigators.
— of Bolton’ s concerns —
Bolton reportedly called Giuliani, President Trump’ s personal attorney this — “ a hand grenade. ”
— and preoccupations with what was going on inside the White House.
This is something that Fiona Hill said when she was talking about John Bolton, the former national security adviser.
We don’ t have a full picture, but we’ re hearing things, like Bolton saying —
Basically he said, you go and tell Eisenberg that I am not part of any drug deal that Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, and Mick Mulvaney are cooking up.
— I didn’ t want to participate in this drug deal that these administration officials were doing.
The term “ drug deal ” here refers to the Ukraine probe that they were trying to initiate.
Right, and that was his way of referring to this pressure campaign against Ukraine to start investigations into Democratic rivals.
Correct. So we’ re learning these different things, but we’ re not hearing from Bolton.
Let me read it one more time. “ Ambassador Taylor recalls that Mr. Morrison told Ambassador Taylor that I told Mr. Morrison that I conveyed this message to Mr. Yermak on September 1, 2019, in connection with Vice President — ”
And one of the problems with the impeachment investigation —
We’ ve got six people having four conversations in one sentence, and you just told me this is where you got your clear understanding.
— was that the House was only really talking to people who were sort of outside the president’ s inner ring.
Ambassador, you weren’ t on the call, were you? You didn’ t listen in on President Trump’ s call and President Zelensky’ s call?
I did not.
You’ ve never talked with Chief of Staff Mulvaney?
I never did.
You never met the president?
That’ s correct.
This is what I can’ t believe, and you’ re their star witness. You’ re their first witness.
A few of the witnesses dealt with the president directly, but many of them were simply relaying what was going on inside the White House.
So Bolton becomes an even more tantalizing figure. He’ s in the center of juicy tidbits coming out of the inquiry. He may be on poor terms with the president. It all seems to make him a perfect witness.
He’ s someone who Republicans trust. He has a long history in the Republican Party, and we were hearing then that he had these concerns. So what was it that he saw? What was it that he could add? He was in the room with the president. What did the president tell him?
So Maggie, what efforts are made by House impeachment investigators to get Bolton to testify, to get him to just spill the beans?
They asked him, back in I believe it was October, to come testify voluntarily. He said no, and he had been ordered by the White House not to take part, but the House decided not to submit a subpoena to try to force him to testify, because —
Why not?
Because they were concerned that it was going to be a protracted legal battle. They were very consumed with trying to wrap this all up quickly. In hindsight, a lot of Democrats say, at least privately, they think that that was a mistake. They think that they should have actually tried to get him to come there.
Right. So he does not end up testifying before the House.
No. Bolton never spoke before the House and didn’ t indicate that he really wanted to at the time. He just said that he would not cooperate with this request for testimony. So they sent over the articles of impeachment without having a witness like Bolton, somebody who had a direct conversation with the president, where the withheld military aid for Ukraine was tied to the president’ s desires for investigations. There were just people who were speculating on motives or had heard things secondhand, but there was no one with a firsthand interaction with the president.
O.K. So that brings us to November.
Right, and so we get to November, and John Bolton is starting to make noises, like he has something to say and he’ s willing to share it. And we learn on November 10, that one place he might be planning to share it is in a book that he’ s planning to write about his time in the White House.
So it was a pretty odd situation. You had House investigators that wanted Bolton to talk. Bolton sort of signaling that he has something to say. And then the news that he’ s writing a book that you presume is going to have some Ukraine details in it. So who’ s going to get to that information?
Right. So in this situation, what do you two do as reporters to try to figure out what he knows and maybe what he’ s put in this book?
So the House inquiry is over, but there’ s all this secrecy around this book. We knew it was coming. We had heard Simon & Schuster would be putting it out. They wouldn’ t even confirm that. We were scratching around with people who might know. And as we were trying to do this, Bolton then says, on January 6 — after not complying with the House efforts to get him to testify — he says that he would be willing to testify in the Senate, if there is a subpoena. It seemed like he was trying to do a dance, where he was trying not to make Senate Republicans angry at him, when he’ s worked with them for years. And he needs them to back him, as he’ s embarking on this post-White House life and trying to sell a book. But also trying to look like he was doing the right thing and not just making it about the book. And it was really hard to decipher what his motives were.
As reporters, there is nothing that galvanizes us like a high-profile public figure in a major story saying, I have important information, but I’ m not going to tell. And he’ s essentially out there doing that — putting the bait for reporters to try and get to the bottom of what’ s in the book.
So we did what we normally do when we are handed some kind of bait, which is we continued to try to figure out what was there and what was in it. And whether it would include some damaging information about the president. Or whether it would include some exculpatory information and would be something that the president’ s folks could even point to and say it would help him. We just, we didn’ t know, but we kept scratching.
Right. If the one great unanswered question was what Bolton knew, then the most obvious thing is to find out what is inside the book.
That’ s right, and we kept scratching and looking, and then we found out what was in the book, and it was quite damaging to the president.
We’ ll be right back.
Brand new reaction this morning from a bombshell New York Times report on John Bolton’ s upcoming book.
A trial that seemed to be on a steady and speedy path to certain acquittal has been hit by a seismic shock.
Startling new report could upend the impeachment trial. According to The New York Times, former —
So what did you learn was actually in this book?
The biggest thing that is in there is that Bolton writes about a conversation that he claims to have had with President Trump in August of 2019, where he pushed the issue of this withheld military aid with the president. And the president suggested he didn’ t want to end the aid freeze until Ukraine turned over materials that he wanted in connection with investigations into Democrats, who he thought had harmed him in 2016.
So Bolton is having a conversation — he recounts in this book — with President Trump in which Bolton says, hey, Mr. President, I want to talk about this financial freeze on military aid to Ukraine, presumably in the context of Bolton wanting to end it.
Bolton pushed this conversation with the president, because he, along with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense, had been trying to get the president for weeks to end the freeze and turn the aid over, arguing that it was necessary for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. And so Bolton raised this issue to test where the president was, and the president met him back by saying he didn’ t want to end this freeze until materials that he wanted were turned over in relation to investigations into Democrats he thought had damaged him.
Wow. Democrats, including Joe Biden.
Democrats, including Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.
So Bolton is confirming in this account that President Trump articulated — correct me if I’ m wrong — a clear quid pro quo that explained why he was holding up the security aid to Ukraine. That it was in return for Ukraine investigating his Democratic rivals, like Joe Biden, and that of course is the central claim of the articles of impeachment. And what Bolton seems to be saying here is that that central claim is accurate, and there’ s now a firsthand account of it from the mouth of the president himself.
But you say confirms. This is the first time that we’ re hearing anyone say this. This is the first time that someone who was in the room, who spoke directly to the president, says, yeah, the president didn’ t want to release the money until he got the fruits of the investigations. This is new ground, and it’ s significant, because the president’ s lawyers have time and time again argued on the Senate floor —
— that there was no connection between security assistance and investigations.
— that the aid and the investigations were not linked.
— the pause on security assistance was distinct and unrelated to investigations.
So this directly contradicts the way the president’ s own lawyers talk about the impeachment.
Correct, or at least it undercuts their main argument, which is that there was not a connection between what the president wanted and releasing this aid.
Am I right, Mike and Maggie, that this is as close to a smoking gun as it gets in a case like this?
Maybe, but throughout the Trump presidency, we’ ve learned similarly explosive disclosures, and the president has been able to weather them politically. So yeah, in a normal time, would the news of the president’ s most recent national security adviser directly implicating him in a question that is at the center of an impeachment hearing be a smoking gun? Sure, but Trump has shown an ability to endure things like this that gives me reticence to say, yeah, that’ s a smoking gun. Because when you say smoking gun, built into that is an assumption that the end would be near.
I’ m with Mike on that. I think that we are a ways away from knowing what this means. And as our colleague Peter Baker wrote today, it could end up being like when the “ Access Hollywood ” tape came out in 2016 in the campaign. And the big prediction was that this was going to be the end of Donald Trump, this was going to be the end of his campaign, and it obviously did not go that way. So we just don’ t know yet.
Well, what has been the reaction to this reporting, especially in the Senate, where the trial is well underway and where the question of calling witnesses is very much still alive?
So we’ re coming into the home stretch of the trial. And the question of whether Bolton will testify has still not been resolved.
Right.
The story comes out, and there’ s increased pressure on Senate Republicans, those moderate ones who may be willing to go along with the Democrats. How much does this story move them?
And Maggie, what’ s the answer?
So far, we are seeing the same moderates who have said they want witnesses before still say they want to hear from Bolton. So that’ s Mitt Romney.
Four of you need to say yes. Do you think there are four votes?
I think it’ s increasingly likely that the other Republicans will join those of us who think we should hear from John Bolton. And whether there are other witnesses and documents, well, that’ s another matter. But I think John Bolton’ s relevance to our decision has become increasingly clear.
Susan Collins of Maine is another person who has said this is another factor that points to why there should be witnesses. But two other possible votes for witnesses, one is Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Andother is Lamar Alexander, who the White House is watching very closely to see what he’ ll do. They have been more circumspect about whether they think our story changes anything. And so far, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to tell everybody to stay cool and just see how this plays out.
I mean, there will be people hearing this — hearing that the national security adviser to the president observed him saying something that directly implicates him in this impeachment case — and will ask, why would any deliberative body sworn in as jurors not want to hear from that person? What would be the justification for not hearing from Bolton in this moment?
So one thing that has come up from the senators in the last several hours is they’ re saying, if this was so important to hear from Bolton, why didn’ t the House subpoena him?
There’ s nothing new here that John Bolton didn’ t know before the House managers rested their case and stopped calling witnesses, and they never chose to call John Bolton.
And you’ re going to hear that, I think increasingly, if you don’ t see a move toward witnesses. That’ s going to be an argument that senators are going to point to.
You missed your chance.
Why are we doing your work for you? That part was in the House.
And at another level, the reason why these senators are not going along with calling Bolton is that Trump doesn’ t want that to happen. And they have been in lockstep with Trump for most of this.
So the justification is keep the president happy.
I think the justification is you have a lot of senators who are facing elections in their own states, and the base likes Trump. And in some states, like Lamar Alexander’ s state, they want him to be loyal to Trump. And so those are the concerns that they’ re measuring, — is do they let themselves be looked back on in history as turning away from evidence, which some people will say they did. Or do they say, voters don’ t really want me casting that vote, and they decide to stick with the president’ s desires.
So how has all of this actually landed inside the White House?
Well, the White House as a whole wasn’ t happy about hearing about this. But for at least some of them, it wasn’ t a surprise, because the White House had been given a draft of this manuscript about 3.5 weeks ago from John Bolton for a standard review process to look at classified information and whether there is any in the book.
So that means at least some folks in the White House have had a sense of what Bolton would testify to in the impeachment investigation.
If he testified.
Correct.
Wait. So does that mean that the president’ s lawyers, including those who are currently defending him in the Senate trial, that they knew what John Bolton had written and knew what John Bolton had experienced, and then continued to make a case to the public that is quite contradictory to what Bolton is saying happened in this book?
We don’ t know the extent to which the manuscript, or the details about it, were circulated. But what we do know is that in the past several weeks, there has been a concerted effort by the president to stop Bolton from testifying. He’ s made public statements about this.
The problem with John is that it’ s a national security problem. You can’ t have somebody who’ s at national security. And if you think about it, John, he knows some of my thoughts. He knows what I think about leaders. What happens if he reveals what I think about a certain leader and it’ s not very positive, and then I have to deal on behalf of the country? It’ s going to be very hard. It’ s going to make the job very hard. He knows other things, and I don’ t know if we left on the best of terms. I would say, probably not. And so you don’ t like people testifying when they didn’ t leave on good terms. And that was due to me, not due to him. And so we’ ll see what happens.
And he has said it privately to aides.
So my final question is, if John Bolton has something to say — and it feels like he does — and the world wants to hear it, senators want to hear it, House impeachment managers want to hear it, we all want to hear it. And it feels like he has an obligation to the Democratic process to say it, why doesn’ t he just find a way to say it? Go on Fox. Go on CNN. Have a news conference. Why hasn’ t he taken any of those opportunities?
It’ s a great question, and there’ s nothing preventing him from doing so. If he wanted to issue some kind of a statement or say something publicly that didn’ t violate executive privilege with the president, he could do that. He has yet to do any of that, and it’ s not really clear why.
But you know what, if John Bolton went on television right now and said everything he would testify to, unless he was subpoenaed to appear at that trial or if the comments from him were put into evidence, then it couldn’ t be considered by the lawmakers. This is a trial, where evidence is brought forward. And if there is not enough votes to bring that evidence in, then it doesn’ t matter whether he stands out on the highest point in town and says everything he knows. It only matters whether it’ s entered into the record in the Senate.
Maggie and Mike, thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks for having us.
On Monday, a lawyer for the White House, Patrick Philbin, tried to tamp down talk of calling Bolton as a witness, saying that calling such a witness would be an effort to, quote, “ redo ” the House impeachment inquiry and would set a dangerous precedent for future impeachment trials. The record that the House Democrats collected during that process, Philbin said, shows that the president did nothing wrong. In a tweet, the president denied Bolton’ s account of their conversation about Ukraine, writing, quote, “ If John Bolton said this, it was only to sell a book. ”
We’ ll be right back.
Here’ s what else you need to know today. On Monday, as it sought to contain the coronavirus, the Chinese government broadened its quarantine to more than 50 million people and said that it would spend at least $ 9 billion to stop the outbreak. The U.S. government said it was organizing an evacuation of American citizens out of the epicenter of the illness in Wuhan. And the pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson said it would begin developing a potential vaccine against the virus, joining several government agencies seeking to do the same. As of Monday night, the coronavirus had infected nearly 3,000 people and killed more than 80. That’ s it for “ The Daily. ” I’ m Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.
Mr. Bolton’ s statements in the book align with other comments he has made since leaving the White House in September. In November, he said in a private speech that none of Mr. Trump’ s advisers shared the president’ s views on Turkey and that he believed Mr. Trump adopted a more permissive approach to the country because of his financial ties there, NBC News reported. Mr. Trump’ s company has a property in Turkey.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly praised dictators throughout his presidency. Last year, he said, “ Where’ s my favorite dictator? ” as he waited to meet with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Mr. Trump’ s soft spot for authoritarians dates at least to his presidential campaign, when he praised Saddam Hussein for being “ good ” at killing terrorists and suggested that the world would be better off were Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the deposed Libyan dictator who was killed in a violent uprising in 2011, “ in charge right now. ” Mr. Trump then suggested the ouster of both men was ultimately worse for the Middle East because the Islamic State had filled the void.
Mr. Trump declared himself “ a big fan ” of Mr. Erdogan as they sat side by side in the Oval Office last fall after Mr. Trump cleared the way for Turkish forces to invade Syria, though he warned Mr. Erdogan behind the scenes against the offensive.
Of Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump has been similarly effusive. When the Chinese Communist Party eliminated term limits, allowing Mr. Xi to keep his tenure open-ended, Mr. Trump extolled the outcome.
Mr. Xi had personally asked Mr. Trump to intervene to save ZTE, which was on the brink of collapse because of tough American penalties for sanctions violations.
Lifting the sanctions on ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications giant that also serves as a geopolitical pawn for its government, most likely helped Mr. Trump negotiate with Mr. Xi in the trade war between the two countries. But Republican lawmakers and others objected to helping a Chinese company that broke the law and has been accused of posing a national security threat.
Mr. Bolton’ s reputation for muscular foreign policy was always an odd fit with Mr. Trump, who often threatens excessive force but rarely reacts with it. Mr. Bolton was pleased when Mr. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, including the United States, that the Obama administration had entered into. Other Trump advisers had urged him against it.
But Mr. Trump’ s lack of action after Iranian aggression against the United States rankled Mr. Bolton.
Mr. Bolton’ s book has already netted significant sales. Shortly after the disclosure of its contents on Sunday night, Amazon listed the book for purchase. By Monday evening, it was No. 17 on Amazon’ s best-seller list.
Eric Lipton contributed reporting. | business |
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As discussed in previous chapters, due to their inherent idiosyncratic complexity the energy markets are prone to inefficiencies that can be monetised by market participants that have developed a sustainable edge. In this chapter, we explore the systematisation of technical models specifically applied to energy markets, with a practical focus on a specific German electricity example. For this purpose, we have chosen the most liquid contract ( front year, see historical chart in Figure 6.1) in German electricity, which is one of the most traded and developed electricity markets in the world, to demonstrate several technical modelling characteristics specifically applied to an idiosyncratic energy market.
Within this context, we will develop and compare several technical trading models, focusing on the daily closing prices for the front calendar contracts. Our focus here is to describe the potential of autocorrelation models in the energy markets, together with the application of several trend-following techniques. As backtesting is an inherent part of evaluating technical strategies, we will be commenting on the dangers of hindsight as well as data snooping.
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China Will Admit International Experts to Help Contain Coronavirus Outbreak | After repeatedly declining assistance from international health officials, Chinese authorities agreed on Tuesday to permit teams of experts coordinated by the World Health Organization to visit China to help contain the growing coronavirus outbreak.
The news arrived as federal health officials announced expanded screening measures for passengers from China at 20 ports of entry to the United States.
Other travel restrictions have not been ruled out, officials said, though so far only five people in the United States are known to have been infected. Americans are now discouraged from traveling to any part of China.
At a news briefing in Washington on Tuesday, Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services — who had just reiterated the offer of scientific and logistical assistance — said he was “ delighted ” that China was accepting.
The Chinese authorities agreed to work with experts from other countries after a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the W.H.O.
The W.H.O. praised China’ s response to the outbreak, including its rapid identification of the virus and its “ openness to sharing information with W.H.O. and other countries. ”
Though the outbreak is continuing in China, federal officials maintained that the risk of infection remains low in the United States.
“ Right now, there is no spread of this virus in our communities at home, ” Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the news briefing.
“ The coming days and weeks are likely to bring more cases, including the possibility of person-to-person spread, ” he added. “ Our goal is to contain this virus and prevent sustained spread of the virus in our country. ”
The C.D.C. has already been screening arrivals from Wuhan, China — epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak — for symptoms of infection at five airports.
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But the agency also oversees a comprehensive quarantine system, including permanent quarantine stations at 20 airports and land border crossings that are staffed with medical officers who routinely screen ill passengers and decide whether they can enter the United States.
Those stations will be equipped and staffed to perform screenings specifically for the Wuhan coronavirus, officials said at the briefing.
“ Americans should know this is a potentially very serious public health threat, but at this point Americans should not worry for their own safety, ” Mr. Azar said. “ This is a very fast-moving, constantly changing situation. ”
American scientists are eager to review data that Chinese health officials have said indicates the virus may be transmitted from an infected individual to other people even before the patient shows symptoms.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
So far, the C.D.C. has not been able to confirm that transmissions may occur while patients are asymptomatic, Dr. Redfield said.
It’ s a question that could have implications for the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, and affect screening measures and other public health steps that must be taken, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Asymptomatic transmission is not believed to be a large factor in viral outbreaks. “ The driver of an outbreak has always been a symptomatic person, ” Dr. Fauci said. “ An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. ”
There was no evidence that people were contagious before they showed symptoms during outbreaks of other coronavirus diseases, like SARS and MERS, which might suggest that such transmission is unlikely with the new coronavirus.
Dr. Redfield said the C.D.C. could not rule out additional measures as scientists learned more about the new coronavirus.
“ All options have to be on the table, including travel restrictions, ” he said. “ But diseases are not terribly good at respecting borders. ”
Denise Grady contributed reporting from New York. | business |
Containing the Coronavirus: Countries Limit Travel to China | HONG KONG — Countries, cities and businesses across the globe issued new travel warnings on Tuesday, vastly expanding a cordon intended to control the flow of people to and from China, where the authorities are struggling to contain the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In the most drastic measure to limit travel, the Hong Kong authorities reduced by half the number of flights and shut down rail service to mainland China, and they also limited visas — moves that could inspire other governments to follow suit.
Measures to contain the outbreak of the virus to its epicenter in Hubei Province appear to have failed to stop the contagion.
On Wednesday morning, Chinese officials said the number of cases had increased by nearly a third overnight. Experts warned that the actual number of cases could be significantly higher and growing quickly. The number of deaths attributed to the virus also continued to grow.
The new travel restrictions put a deeper freeze on China’ s contact with the world, cutting off business and tourism as China’ s economy faces a potential slowdown.
With China’ s Lunar New Year holiday nearing its end, companies ordered workers to stay home and avoid travel. The economic impact of such measures pointed to a deeper political crisis, with many people accusing the Chinese authorities online of failing to act quickly to contain the virus, even as the government continues to struggle to control its spread.
The travel advisories and bans came as the virus showed early signs of spreading outside China, with cases of transmission to people who had not recently traveled to China reported in Japan, Germany and Vietnam. Countries across the world may now be faced with the task of limiting the spread of the disease on their own soil, not simply seeking to identify and quarantine infected people who had been in China.
Officials at the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned against nonessential travel to China, noting that there is “ limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. ” The United States is expanding the screening of travelers arriving from Wuhan to 20 airports and other ports of entry, from five, federal officials said on Tuesday.
[ Read: U.K. businessman linked to coronavirus cluster comes forward. ]
The World Health Organization revised its global risk assessment for the outbreak from “ moderate ” to “ high, ” although it noted this shift in a footnote buried in a report published on Monday. The change in the risk assessment, which coincided with a visit to China by the organization’ s director general, risked confusing the public about the severity of the outbreak, which has killed more than 130 people in China and been diagnosed in at least 14 countries.
The World Health Organization was criticized after it refused twice in recent days to declare the outbreak a global emergency, despite its spread.
With other countries scrambling to evacuate their citizens from the locked-down epicenter of the outbreak in central China, the WHO said its director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, had discussed with Chinese officials “ possible alternatives to evacuation of foreigners if there are ways to accommodate them and protect their health. ”
Although Chinese medical workers have described a desperate need for more resources to treat thousands of new patients, state-run Chinese media reported that Dr. Tedros had spoken highly of the Chinese efforts to contain the virus. The Chinese authorities agreed on Tuesday to allow in teams of international experts, coordinated by the World Health Organization, to help with research and containment.
Chinese officials said Wednesday that 132 people had died from the virus, up from 106 the day before. The total number of confirmed cases rose sharply as well, to 5,974 on Wednesday, according to the National Health Commission.
The youngest confirmed patient is a 9-month-old girl in Beijing. While the majority of confirmed cases were in Hubei, where a number of cities have been put under effective lockdown, an additional 1,800 cases have been diagnosed outside the province, the authorities said.
In Wuhan, medical workers have cited a lack of masks and kits to test for the virus. China’ s medical products administration said on Sunday it had approved new virus detection kits to speed detection, but three Chinese medical companies said they did not have the capacity to produce enough of them, according to local news media reports.
Many in Wuhan with symptoms of the virus have not been tested or have been told the hospitals did not have enough test kits, some local residents said.
During a visit to Wuhan on Monday, the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, promised to provide more equipment, and the local government has begun building new hospitals that it hopes to open in a matter of weeks. But online, many people mocked the government’ s efforts.
In indications of the virus’ s spread beyond China’ s borders, Thailand reported 14 cases of infection, while the United States and Australia have each confirmed five cases. Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia each said they had confirmed four cases.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
Japan’ s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, which has now confirmed six cases, said that the virus had been found in the first Japanese citizen. The ministry said he had worked as a bus driver for two different tour groups from Wuhan. He had no history of traveling to Wuhan.
The man, who had driven for the tours earlier this month, first reported experiencing chills, a cough and joint pain on Jan. 14. He visited a clinic three days later, but was sent home. On Jan. 22, his joint pain and cough grew worse, and he returned to a health clinic on Saturday, when a chest X-ray showed abnormalities and he was admitted to a hospital. A test confirmed the coronavirus on Tuesday.
German officials said Tuesday that they had identified what they believed was the first instance of the virus spreading within Europe. They said a man from Starnberg in Bavaria was infected and was being treated and kept in isolation. The health ministry described him as being in “ good condition ” medically and said it was also monitoring his family and other people who might have been exposed, including in his children’ s day care center.
“ It was to be expected that the virus would come to Germany, ” Jens Spahn, Germany’ s health minister, said in a statement on Tuesday. “ But the Bavarian case shows us that we are well prepared. ” He said the risk to Germans remained low.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Japan planned to send a chartered plane to Wuhan on Tuesday night to bring back the first Japanese citizens who wish to be repatriated. At least 13 countries have said they would evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have been transmitted from animals to humans.
Businesses that operate in China have issued warnings of their own. In a flurry of emails sent in recent days, General Motors, Honeywell, Bloomberg, Facebook and other companies have warned employees not to travel within mainland China.
Honeywell, which has offices and operations across China, said it had restricted travel to some regions, but did not specify which ones. A spokesman for General Motors said the company had issued a global travel ban to China, with only “ business-critical ” travel allowed and only after clearance from a doctor. Bloomberg told its employees in Hong Kong and mainland China to work remotely until further notice and it restricted travel to China and Hong Kong over the next 30 days, according to an email seen by The New York Times.
The Chinese government has extended the Lunar New Year holiday until Feb. 3, with some of China’ s biggest cities telling businesses not to open until the following week. China’ s biggest technology companies went further, notifying employees to work from home until Feb. 10. NetEase, an internet and entertainment platform, asked employees who were returning from another city to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
Investors in Asia were gripped on Tuesday with fear about the health of the global economy for a second day, with a widespread sell-off continuing in the markets. Investors dumped stocks in companies thought to be most vulnerable to the effects of the virus.
“ The coronavirus is the No. 1 threat to financial markets currently as global investors are becoming jittery on the uncertainty, ” said Nigel Green, founder of an investment company, the deVere Group.
In Hong Kong, medical professionals called for additional border checkpoints.
“ The next week or two will be a critical time for the development of the epidemic, ” the faculty at the Chinese University of Hong Kong wrote on its Facebook page. “ We must closely monitor whether there is a community outbreak outside Hubei Province, especially in Hong Kong’ s neighboring regions. ”
Reporting was contributed by Chris Buckley, Russell Goldman, Elaine Yu, Raymond Zhong, Austin Ramzy, Sui-Lee Wee, Alexandra Stevenson, Eimi Yamamitsu, Tiffany May, Joseph Goldstein, Jeffrey E. Singer, Peter S. Goodman, Motoko Rich, Christopher Schuetze, and Roni Caryn Rabin. Jin Wu, Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Amber Wang, Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
Researchers tap AI to track spread of coronavirus | We generally think of AI in healthcare as the use of the new technology either directly in a healthcare setting or in healthcare-related research.
But as officials around the world scramble to contend with the cornoavirus outbreak out of China, AI is demonstrating its capacity to contribute well outside the usual healthcare settings.
According to an article at Vox, one key use for AI that is proving critical right now is its ability to “ automatically mine through news reports and online content from around the world, helping experts recognize anomalies that could lead to a potential epidemic or, worse, a pandemic. ”
To that end, the outbreak was reportedly “ identified early by a Canadian firm called BlueDot, which is one of a number of companies that use data to evaluate public health risks. The company, which says it conducts ‘ automated infectious disease surveillance,’ notified its customers about the new form of coronavirus at the end of December, days before both the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) and the World Health Organization ( WHO) sent out official notices. ”
According to Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician and BlueDot’ s founder and CEO, “ the company’ s early-warning system uses artificial intelligence, including natural-language processing and machine learning, to track over 100 infectious diseases by analyzing about 100,000 articles in 65 languages every day. That data helps the company know when to notify its clients about the potential presence and spread of an infectious disease.
“ Other data, like traveler itinerary information and flight paths, can help give the company additional hints about how a disease will likely spread. For instance, earlier this month, BlueDot researchers predicted other cities in Asia where the coronavirus would show up after it appeared in mainland China. ”
The goal for BlueDot, said Khan, is to notify healthcare workers as quickly as possible in the hope of containing potential outbreaks.
“ The difference between one case in a traveler and an outbreak depends upon your frontline health care worker recognizing that there is a particular disease. It could be the difference in preventing an outbreak from actually occurring, ” he explained.
Khan added that his system can also use an array of other data — such as information about an area’ s climate, temperature, or even local livestock — to predict whether someone infected with a disease is likely to cause an outbreak in that area. He points out that, back in 2016, BlueDot was able to predict the appearance of the Zika virus in Florida six months before it actually showed up there. | tech |
A Divided Hong Kong Confronts the Arrival of the Coronavirus | HONG KONG — The two Hong Kong protesters were dressed head to toe in black, their faces covered in masks. They smashed their Molotov cocktails into the lobby of a public housing estate, and flames and smoke began spewing out.
This was no scene from the protest violence last year over Beijing’ s dominance of Hong Kong’ s affairs. This was on Sunday, and the firebombing was incited by anger over the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China — and plans by the Hong Kong government to use the unoccupied housing block as a quarantine area.
Angst and anger fueled by the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 130 people on the mainland and has eight confirmed cases in Hong Kong, are compounding the bitterness from months of protests against Chief Executive Carrie Lam’ s leadership. And it has set her government scrambling.
On Tuesday, she relented after days of heavy pressure to put harder limits on travel from the mainland to Hong Kong.
Speaking at a news conference with a mask over her face, she announced the shutdown of major rail passenger links and limits on flights for people coming from the mainland. The government in Beijing will also stop issuing visas for individual travelers to Hong Kong from the mainland. Those moves were unprecedented, Hong Kong researchers say, and were avoided even during the height of the SARS epidemic in 2003.
The prospect of a new avenue for criticism of Hong Kong’ s government, after months of simmering conflict with protesters, has caused alarm among officials as they are trying to appear responsive to the coronavirus outbreak.
More broadly, the concern over the outbreak is again bringing resentment of the mainland to the fore. As they did during the SARS crisis, which killed nearly 300 people in Hong Kong, and then again during the protests against Beijing’ s intervention in the Hong Kong territory’ s limited autonomy, people here are expressing distrust over the Chinese leadership’ s lack of transparency and arbitrary decision-making.
And for many, that distrust is extended to Mrs. Lam, Beijing’ s handpicked chief executive, who will be under even heavier scrutiny as she tries to bring a divided city together to head off the outbreak.
“ We learned the lesson from SARS, ” said Wong Hoi-ying, a district council representative in Fanling, the location of a proposed quarantine site in northern Hong Kong. “ We put on our masks even before the coronavirus was confirmed to have entered Hong Kong. ”
Ms. Wong said she was shocked to learn from a news conference on Saturday that the Hong Kong government had identified the unoccupied public housing complex, in Fanling, as a possible quarantine site for the relatives of infected people.
Updated May 27, 2020
In the summer of 2019, Hong Kong protesters began fighting a rule that would allow extraditions to China. These protests eventually broadened to protect Hong Kong’ s autonomy from China. The protests wound down when pro-democracy candidates notched a stunning victory in Hong Kong elections in November, in what was seen as a pointed rebuke of Beijing and its allies in Hong Kong.
Late in 2019, the protests then quieted.
Those peaceful mass rallies that occurred in June of 2019 were pointed against the territory leadership of Hong Kong. Later, they devolved into often-violent clashes between some protesters and police officers and lasted through November 2019. The current protests are aimed at mainland China.
This latest round of demonstrations in Hong Kong has been fueled largely by China’ s ruling Communist Party move this month to impose new national security legislation for Hong Kong.
To China, the rules are necessary to protect the country’ s national sovereignty. To critics, they further erode the relative autonomy granted to the territory after Britain handed it back to China in 1997.
The rules would take direct aim at the anti-government protests and other dissent in Hong Kong. They are expected to prevent and punish secession, subversion as well as foreign infiltration — all of which Beijing has blamed for fueling unrest in the city.
The legislation would also allow the mainland’ s feared security agencies to set up their operations publicly in Hong Kong for the first time, instead of operating on a limited scale in secrecy.
In trying to pass this legislation, Beijing is bypassing the Hong Kong government, and the legislation is being pushed by China’ s rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’ s Congress.
Her constituents “ were outraged, ” she said. “ It’ s within 100 meters of residences nearby, there are at least two schools and a few more kindergartens in the vicinity. It’ s not a suitable location for quarantine purposes. ”
Within hours of the protest on Sunday, the authorities said they were delaying plans to use the public housing complex, while moving ahead with the use of remote, government-owned vacation bungalows. On Tuesday, Mrs. Lam said the government would abandon any plans to use the Fanling site.
“ The militancy of residents caught them by surprise, ” said Ma Ngok, an associate professor of political science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He noted that the protesters included not only the contingent that has been rallying against the government for months, but also some people from the pro-establishment camp known as the blue ribbons.
“ They ostensibly support the government, but when it came to using their neighborhood for quarantine, they came out and blocked the roads, ” Mr. Ma said.
Late Sunday, the government said it would bar residents of Hubei, the province that includes Wuhan, or anyone who had traveled there in the past two weeks from entering Hong Kong. Just a day earlier Mrs. Lam had resisted calls for keeping out mainland visitors, saying it would be “ inappropriate and impractical. ”
She faced expanded demands to restrict arrivals from the mainland. Some medical workers and epidemiologists, labor unions and even pro-Beijing politicians called for a more complete closure.
On Tuesday, after a suspected explosive device was found in a trash can at a checkpoint at the mainland border, an anonymous message appeared on social media threatening a campaign to damage roads and railways connecting the city to mainland China.
“ If the Hong Kong Communists refuse to close ( the border), we will do it for you, ” the message said.
Her critics point out that Mrs. Lam did not act to stop entries from Hubei until Macau, the former Portuguese colony that like Hong Kong operates with some autonomy from the central government, did it first. Macau said Sunday that it would only allow residents from Hubei to enter if they provided documentation to show they were not infected.
The heightened restrictions announced Tuesday might still not be enough, as several border crossings and the airport will remain open, Mr. Ma said.
“ It shows she can respond to public opinion, but it might be too little too late, ” he said.
Many Hong Kong civil servants will work from home for the rest of the week. Officials called for private employers to permit similar working arrangements to keep people off the streets after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Despite the criticism, in many ways, Hong Kong is the best-equipped Chinese city for dealing with an outbreak.
It was one of the first places in China to begin reporting possible cases of infection from the coronavirus. And it has deep and painfully earned experience from the SARS outbreak, which killed at least eight health care workers. Some of the survivors still have lung damage 17 years later.
Doctors and nurses in Hong Kong have drawn lots to determine when they would work in coronavirus isolation wards for six-week shifts, said Arisina Ma, the president of the Public Doctors’ Association. One hospital rearranged its cafeteria so that all tables faced the walls, a precaution from the SARS era to help prevent employees from infecting each other during their meals.
The health authorities were scrambling to find living quarters for health workers after they had completed duty inside isolation wards. Hotels were also unwilling to accept large numbers of medical workers for fear of public reaction.
Dr. Ma suggested requiring visitors and residents who were returning from the mainland at the close of the Lunar New Year holiday to stay home for 14 days, the incubation period for the disease.
“ Once the community outbreak takes place, and we still let sick people from mainland to come in, I can definitely tell you our system can not cope with all those sick patients, ” she said. “ We are waiting for the worst to come. Of course we will try to stop it, but I am not sure if our government is efficient and determined enough to stop the worst to come. ”
It was unclear, though, whether the upwelling of anger here would give new momentum to a protest movement that in recent weeks had become notably less intense.
Some protesters have called for rallies this week to raise both long-running demands, such as an investigation into police use of force and expanded direct elections, and new ones, such as further limiting mainland arrivals to prevent spread of the coronavirus.
But other activists have said the complaints about the government’ s response to the outbreak are too local and focused on keeping quarantine sites out of neighborhoods to develop into a citywide movement.
Another factor might also keep people off the streets: fear of infection.
“ It might make it almost impossible to have a large-scale gathering in Hong Kong, ” Mr. Ma said. “ Even the protesters might not suggest people come out. ”
Tiffany May, Elaine Yu and Ezra Cheung contributed reporting from Hong Kong. | business |
Apple: Coronavirus concerns offset record Q1 iPhone and wearable sales | A new GamesBeat event is around the corner! Learn more about what comes next.
Fresh off reporting record earnings of $ 91.8 billion for the holiday quarter, Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri used a conference call with financial analysts to offer additional details on the health of the company’ s business at the beginning of 2020 — arguably the strongest point in its history, as measured in both dollars and devices. But the potential impact of the coronavirus that is spreading in China is clearly weighing heavily on the company’ s leadership.
Beyond blowing past its own revenue estimates and those of analysts, Cook and Maestri underscored that there are now 1.5 billion active Apple devices, up 100 million for the quarter, with 98% customer satisfaction across all three iPhone 11 models. Cook noted that the $ 699 iPhone 11 was Apple’ s top-selling model every week during the quarter, and all three of the 11-series phones were the company’ s top sellers.
Asked about the topic of 5G iPhones, Cook demurred, suggesting that 5G is “ in the early innings ” without confirming that it was preparing to release devices. Regardless, he said, “ we couldn’ t be prouder of our lineup, and wouldn’ t trade our position for anybody, ” subtly underscoring the continued strong performance of iPhones in most markets despite their lack of 5G support. In response to another question, Cook noted that 5G’ s rollout isn’ t happening at the same pace in every geography, hinting that that company may have regionally different strategies for its devices this year.
While Apple saw roughly $ 4 billion in year-over-year iPhone growth, the smaller wearables and services businesses enjoyed steeper percentage jumps, each jumping around $ 2 billion over prior numbers. The wearables category alone is now the size of a Fortune 150 company, setting all-time revenue records in virtually every market Apple tracks around the world, and over 75% of customers purchasing during the quarter were new to Apple Watch. Cook confirmed that both the $ 199 Apple Watch Series 3 and $ 249 AirPods Pro are presently supply constrained, which is to say that demand for each product is higher than the company can match.
The company is concerned, however, about the potential impact of China’ s Wuhan coronavirus on both its production and sales. In addition to offering a wide ( $ 63 to $ 67 billion) range of revenue estimates for the coming quarter, which it attributed to risks related to the virus, Maestri and Cook suggested that the company has already closed one retail store in China due to the issues and is actively cleaning other stores to keep them safe for guests. Additionally, device production that was to have resumed after the Lunar New Year has been pushed back modestly into the second week of February.
Thanks in part to the growing size of its installed device base, revenues from services were up 17% over last year, Cook noted, with double-digit growth in all five geographies, and growth across all of the services Apple offers. The App Store had a particularly strong December, and a new record of $ 386 million in spending on New Year’ s Day alone. That said, the company didn’ t have hard numbers to report for Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, or Apple News+ beyond to suggest their subscriber numbers are growing. Unsurprisingly, Apple Pay’ s revenues are up, and transactions more than doubled year over year, with a $ 15 billion run rate.
On the computer front, while the iPad and Mac numbers were down a little year over year, Maestri characterized them as essentially flat, and Cook noted that the iPad grew in emerging markets. The year-over-year comparisons for iPad and Mac were “ tough, ” Maestri said, because there had been major new model launches in the year-ago quarter, though Cook said that the new 16″ MacBook Pro, modular Mac Pro, and Pro Display XDR released during the quarter had all enjoyed a “ strong response ” from the professional creative community. | tech |
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We have explored several aspects of systematising models, including practical examples, focusing on broad defining lines that will help the reader develop their own systematic models. We are now ready to dig further into the detail by investigating data-related model boundaries and assumptions.
In general, data can be sorted into technical ( price) and fundamental data. Although the range of data-related issues is very extensive, we will focus on practical aspects associated with data quality and availability, exploring the practicalities of using weather data and settlement data as two specific energy-related concerns, starting with the establishment of a data quality framework.
In any circumstances, whether dealing with price or fundamental data, we would suggest using a framework for evaluating data quality that monitors completeness, credibility, precision and continuity ( Cichy and Rass, 2019).
Completeness: This describes the percentage of data available. For example, if we are looking at daily settlement prices, we need to know how many days of data are missing from the time series.
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LNG's Wintry Price Plunge Boosts Possibility of U.S. Terminal Shut-Ins Later in Year | Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails.
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Liquefied natural gas ( LNG) prices are trading near unprecedented lows, cratering at the height of winter in the northern hemisphere and again raising the possibility of shut-in exports later this year along the Gulf Coast, where supplies continue to increase.
A mild winter in North Asia and Europe, coupled with a flood of supply, as well as a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in China weighing on travel, the economy and industrial demand, continue putting pressure on prices. A similar trend has unfolded in the United States, where warmer weather has all but crushed gas prices, which fell below the $ 2.00 mark last week and haven’ t budged.
In Europe and Asia, benchmark prices look similar to those of the United States, where they already were stifled by the Lower 48 gas boom. A steady flow of LNG supply from places like Australia, Qatar and the United States has flooded the market, with new global supplies over the last two years exceeding 53 million metric tons/year, according to Evercore ISI. In Europe, the typical pipeline flows from Algeria, Norway and Russia have also continued unchecked this winter, adding to the glut.
“ I haven’ t seen prices this low before, ” said long-time LNG trader Brad Hitch, a former portfolio manager at Cheniere Energy Inc.
ClipperData’ s Kaleem Asghar, director of LNG analytics, said he sees a “ bearish trend ” for prices over the next five years. There is so much global supply, he told NGI, that if one or two LNG production facilities were to go offline anywhere in the world, it would do little to move global prices.
In Asia, March gas at the Japan Korea Marker was trading at $ 4.00/MMBtu on Tuesday, a floor for the benchmark that hasn’ t been seen since 2016. The April contract was at $ 3.665. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility, a primary benchmark for European LNG spot trades, was at $ 3.489 for March, while the National Balancing Point in the UK was at $ 3.662.
The strip for all three points is below $ 4.00 for most of the year. By comparison, Henry Hub prices averaged $ 2.519/MMBtu in 2019 and $ 3.122 in 2018. The New York Mercantile Exchange February contract settled at $ 1.934 on Tuesday, while March was at $ 1.908.
The arbitrage spread, or profit margin, on Monday between the Sabine Pass LNG terminal on the Gulf Coast and Asia was 13 cents/MMBtu and 34 cents to Europe, according to NGI calculations. That has moved up in recent days as vessel rates have declined on a lack of demand.
“ That 34-cent spread to Europe doesn’ t include regasification or pipeline access fees, and those can range between 10-50 cents on a variable basis, depending on the particular company involved, ” said NGI’ s Patrick Rau, director of strategy and research. “ Again, nothing that screams please send as much gas from the U.S. to Europe as possible. ”
Even longer-term oil-linked LNG contracts, a staple across the world, have moved little over the last year. For example, Brent crude has moved in such a narrow bandwidth that parity prices have been rangebound at about $ 10.00/MMBtu since last January.
As demand has weakened in Asia, Europe has come to the rescue with its ample regasification capacity, liquid trading markets and strong demand to serve as the global balancing arm. But given the supply glut and corresponding plunge in prices, concerns are increasing that some U.S. export cargoes could be canceled and shut-in.
U.S. liquefiers have more flexible contracts and a massive wholesale market to pump their volumes back into, but shut-ins and canceled cargoes aren’ t likely to happen anytime soon. Even if they were, it’ s unclear how long shut-ins would last as vessel rates would likely fall along with U.S. spot prices in a way that would reopen the arbitrage window and again incentivize exports.
“ We’ re in uncharted territory with these prices, to be honest, ” Hitch told NGI on Tuesday. “ And the thing we’ re not going to know for a while is whether we’ re in uncharted territory in terms of summer demand and summer injection capability in Europe. ”
Asghar, who formerly negotiated supply agreements in Pakistan, thinks shut-ins or cargo cancellations along the Gulf Coast are unlikely given how LNG is bought and sold. Most U.S. terminals are underpinned by long-term agreements that make it difficult to cancel cargoes. However, cancellations would send a bearish signal to the market and likely push prices lower, he said.
Energy Aspects gas analyst James Waddell, who is based in London, said shut-ins aren’ t likely anytime soon. He noted that U.S. offtakers have hedged their volumes against other delivery points overseas that for now would make it uneconomic to not lift a cargo.
However, contracts don’ t necessarily force buyers to take cargoes in all instances or preclude parties from coming up with alternate solutions if it makes little sense to take a shipment. Instead, a variety of things, including contractual terms, vessel availability, scheduling restrictions along the Gulf Coast, and the supply and demand balance are sure to factor into the possibility of shut-ins, Hitch said.
“ I think the question of whether or not there can be shut-ins is a little bit of a complicated one. ”
If they do happen, shut-ins are more likely to occur later in the year, and would largely hinge on Europe’ s ability to inject gas and store LNG supplies during the summer months. LNG inventories are currently at about 60% of tank capacity, or above where they typically are during winter, while the continent’ s gas in underground storage is also above average at 72%.
“ There are a lot of variables in play still, but the trajectory that we’ re on right now, given where prices are, would tend to make me think that you’ re going to have too much gas in storage in the third quarter to inject at healthy rates, ” Hitch said of the European market. “ If that’ s the situation we’ re in, that’ s when the U.S. is probably at its most susceptible to shut-in. ”
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Permian Basin | general |
Pitfalls in Systematic Model Development | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
To ease the pain associated with meeting compliance targets, global institutions are exploring ways to become more efficient by integrating regulatory and business initiatives.
Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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The wide array of considerations made in the book so far should give the reader a feeling for what can go wrong in systematic model development. We will now focus on the two most common mistakes in this area: trying to monetise a model that is just good at explaining ( but not capturing) the trend; and underestimating model correlation. We illustrate these two pitfalls with a realistic German power model.
We have built a German power linear regression model using 1,400 points of fundamental price data starting from 2014. Our dependent variable is the price of German power ( EEX front year future), and our independent variables are the prices of oil ( ICE Brent front month), emissions ( ICE EUA front December), gas ( ICE Title Transfer Facility, TTF, front year), coal ( ICE Rotterdam front calendar) and the EURUSD currency pair ( foreign exchange, FX).
With these five independent variables, we have obtained an R-square of 0.983 – ie, we have managed to explain 98.3% of the variance. An in-depth look at the regression statistics, shown in Table 12.1, reveals the significance of every independent variable. Out of the five variables, the most significant is
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DEF CON China conference put on hold due to coronavirus outbreak | DEF CON team is hoping that the 2019-nCoV outbreak will improve and they can go on as planned, or reschedule.
The organizers of the DEF CON cyber-security conference have announced today that they are putting this year's China edition `` on hold '' due to the ongoing Wuhan coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) outbreak.
`` China has announced a six-month hold on events like ours as part of the effort to combat the coronavirus outbreak, '' the DEF CON team said in a forum post today.
DEF CON is one of the Top 3 most prestigious cyber-security conferences today. The conference is held each year in Las Vegas, in the month of August.
The Chinese edition of the DEF CON conference, which would have reached its second edition this year, was set to take place in Beijing between April 17 and April 19.
Organizers said they are currently putting the DEF CON China 2.0 conference on hold, but have not officially canceled the event.
The DEF CON team is still hoping that the situation in mainland China improves and they can go on as planned, or at least reschedule for a later date.
`` Know that we are committed to holding the event once it's safe to do so, '' organizers said. `` The situation is still developing. We're working to find alternative dates for DEF CON China 2.0. ''
`` Our hearts go out to our many friends in the affected regions. ''
The 2019-nCoV coronavirus is believed to have originated in the city of Wuhan, China. So far, the virus has killed 81 people and sickened more than 2,800 in mainland China alone.
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering launched today an online dashboard for tracking the 2019-nCoV outbreak as it spreads out of China and across Asia, North America, and Europe.
Additional official resources for tracking 2019-nCoV are available via the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization.
Health experts have warned internet users to be mindful of taking health advice from random internet sites.
They also warned of sharing misinformation about the virus from unofficial websites as they may end up misleading victims and putting people's lives at risk.
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Comments update: `` The Great Ward of China '' | for the treatment of patients with suspected coronavirus.
in order to help contain and treat patients with coronavirus has sparked debate among readers.
`` The virus is spreading faster than concrete hardening for a shed. Why not convert existing halls, sheds, warehouses, schools, etc. into makeshift quarantines? ''
: `` The term 'hospital ' has been used a little bit loosely. It's a medical shed for 1,000 beds. It's like making a camping tent in two hours and calling it a 'villa ' ''.
`` Well they don't sit around and discuss it for years... they just get on with it, ''
. `` This will be an isolation facility, not a full hospital, which makes the task magnitudes less complex, but still quite a feat to pull off. Rather than 'Yeah, but this ', let's just watch and learn. ''
to meet with Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. The Danish architect rejected the idea that countries like Brazil should be off-limits saying, '' creating a list of countries that BIG should shy away from working with seems to be an oversimplification of a complex world ''.
. `` Not my favourite architects by any means, but they attract attention, and bad people/bad things abhor everyone else watching, so I 'll remain optimistic on this one. ''
: `` Ingels has got hundreds of people sat at desks that need to be kept busy, he's just lost a big job in New York and needs to get in more work if he's going to avoid laying staff off. He doesn't work for a charity or the government... if you are responsible for maintaining the livelihoods of so many people, what would you have done? ''
: `` Bolsonaro is an aspiring dictator and is responsible for some of the worst environmental destruction in a generation, and proudly plans for more! Ingels is doing window dressing for an abattoir. He's being used for his talents so that Bolsonaro can deflect criticism about the fact that he's an abhorrent, hateful leader. ''
, replacing its characteristic gun shape with a sleek, monochrome design and simplified functionality. Readers aren't impressed.
. `` This is a tool designed by somebody who doesn't use tools. ''
: `` The gun shape not only works better, there's much less hand fatigue. ''
: `` I 'm actually intimidated by the pointlessness of this exercise. ''
, which will be adorned with more than 100 trees and won't have any car parking spaces, in a bid to `` radically change customer and mobility behaviours ''. Commenters aren't convinced though.
. `` The home delivery service for large orders of furniture/cabinets in the USA is so antiquated. ''
: `` Sounds like a great time to be carrying dishes, frames and furniture because they don't allow cars. I predict they will have the lowest sales numbers of any IKEA. ''
. `` This is way too half-baked and shambolic for an international company of this prominence to press release. It's like a Pinterest board of architectural trend, and their blue and yellow has become a grotesque liability. ''
. `` A five-level maze instead of a one level maze! Please tell me the doors to the stairs are not one way. '' | business |
Canadian companies feel impact of coronavirus as it strikes across sectors | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
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MONTREAL -- Canadian companies are starting to feel the pinch of the deadly coronavirus epidemic as they call off trips and watch their stock values slide.
The S & P/TSX composite index in Canada had its worst trading day in nearly four months on Monday, dropping more than 100 points before partly rebounding Tuesday morning.
Imax Corp. says it postponed the release of five films after China's more than 60,000 movie theatres shut down, including the company's more than 600 locations. The Mississauga, Ont.-based company is in the midst of a major expansion in China, which hosts roughly 40 per cent of its outlets and generates hundreds of millions in box office revenue.
Air Canada has seen its stock fall about 12 per cent in the past week. The Montreal based carrier offers direct flights to Beijing and Shanghai from Canada's three biggest cities, as well as to the airport at Wuhan -- the epicentre of the virus -- through a partner. Air Canada is allowing passengers to rebook flights to the Chinese cities free of charge.
All sorts of sectors, such as retail, insurance, mining and manufacturing, are bracing for impact. Companies including Canada Goose Holdings Inc., Sun Life Financial, Teck Resources Ltd., and Magna International Inc. -- which has nearly 19,000 employees at factories and offices in China -- put employees ' travel plans on hold or instructed staff to work from home. All except Sun Life saw their stock fall between five and 15 per cent since Jan. 20, when authorities confirmed human-to-human transmission of the virus.
Bombardier Inc., the Montreal-based train-and-plane maker employing some 8,000 workers in China, echoes other Canadian companies with a foothold on the mainland and says it is `` monitoring the evolving situation '' and asking staff to `` strictly follow the travel and public health instructions issued by the Chinese authorities. ''
Markets beyond the Asia Pacific region are stabilized for now, said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
`` With efforts still underway to contain the coronavirus outbreak, including curtailing transport between Mainland China and Hong Kong, investors have paused to assess the situation, much of which remains clouded in uncertainty, '' he wrote in a research note.
The virus has killed at least 106 people and infected more than 2,750 others, Chinese officials report. The flu-like illness has spread to at least 14 other countries in Europe and North America, including two confirmed cases in Toronto and one presumptive case in Vancouver.
Broader proliferation beyond China's shores would lead to `` a progressively larger global economic disruption, '' Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Economics, wrote in a note.
`` There's little doubt that confirmed cases will continue to rise globally in the near-term, but Chinese authorities have demonstrated a swifter and more transparent response than the SARS episode, both domestically and in alerting the World Health Organization. ''
The extent of the epidemic to date falls well short of the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, an illness from the same family as coronavirus, that spread from China to more than two dozen countries, including Canada, in 2003.
SARS infected more than 8,000 people worldwide, killing close to 800, according to the WHO. The disease sickened about 438 Canadian patients and caused 44 deaths in the Toronto area -- the epicentre of the virus outside of China.
SARS cost Canada $ 5.25 billion and about 28,000 jobs in 2003, according to a 2014 report by Kai Ostwald, an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia's School of Public Policy and Global Affairs.
The damage came in large part from fear-based shifts in consumer behaviour rather than higher medical expenditures, Ostwald wrote in the report.
`` Specifically, fear of contagion prompted widespread aversion behaviour, in which people significantly reduced activities that put them in close proximity with others. This included not only things like flying and eating in restaurants, but also activities like workplace and school attendance, '' he wrote.
Another difference between the two outbreaks lies in China's supercharged growth as an economic power over the past two decades. In 2003, China comprised four per cent of global output, compared to 16 per cent today, according to the World Bank.
A disruption could ripple through supply lines and consumer prices if the virus continues to spread.
`` China is the engine of the global economy, churning out goods, '' said German health economist Fred Roeder.
Its critical role in international shipping may be thrown into disarray as ships encounter delays at the port at Wuhan, a key hub on the Yangtze River.
`` If they can not leave, it creates huge delays in the supply chain and value chain of businesses all across the world, '' Roeder said. `` It could actually hit the latest generation of smartphone if ports are shutting down. ''
Tourism too is at risk, with travel in many parts of China effectively suspended as full or partial lockdowns restrict more than 50 million residents. Canada is increasingly reliant on Pacific countries for tourists, with the number of annual visitors from China shooting up by a factor of 10 since 2000 to 757,000 in 2018.
Meanwhile investors are seeking shelter in bonds amid fears the coronavirus could disrupt global economic activity, said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres.
The Government of Canada five-year bond yield traded at roughly 1.35 per cent Tuesday morning, well below its nearly 1.70 per cent level one month ago, she pointed out.
Rogers Communications Inc. posted fourth-quarter profit on Thursday that was in line with expectations as its wireless and media division powered revenue growth.
How much further is the U.S. Federal Reserve willing to let stocks slide? That’ s the burning question of the moment for financial markets, and Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, has an answer: as much as 20 per cent more.
Stocks pared gains as traders assessed the path of monetary policy against the latest economic readings. The dollar climbed with bonds.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is isolating for five days after being exposed to COVID-19, but has tested negative on a rapid test. | general |
Appeals court upholds ruling finding Kansas 'ag-gag ' law unconstitutional | UPDATE: August 25, 2021: The U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the District Court's ruling on this case, saying that Kansas ' law prohibiting undercover investigations of factory farms and slaughterhouses by animal rights activists violates the First Amendment right to free speech.
`` Even if deception used to obtain consent to enter is unprotected speech due to the entry upon private property, Kansas may not discriminate between speakers based on the unrelated issue of whether they intend to harm or help the enterprise.... But that is the effect, and stated purpose, of the provisions at issue, '' the opinion states.
Senior Judge Michael Murphy and Judge Carolyn McHugh authored the opinion, while Judge Harris Hartz dissented.
Earlier this month, the U.S. 8th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that part of a similar law in Iowa did not violate the First Amendment. The opinion, with which all three judges on the panel concurred, said the state's law making it illegal to gain access to an agricultural facility by false pretenses was constitutional.
`` Trespass to private property is a comparable 'legally cognizable harm, ' such that knowingly false speech designed to cause that harm should lead to a similar conclusion, '' the opinion states.
Kansas U.S. District Court Judge Kathryn Vratil overturned most of the state's `` ag-gag '' law, ruling it violates the First Amendment right to free speech by criminalizing undercover investigations by animal welfare activists at factory farms and slaughterhouses.
In her 39-page opinion filed Jan. 22, Vratil wrote the Kansas law adopted in 1990 discriminates against certain speech based on its content and is therefore unconstitutional. `` The law plainly targets negative views about animal facilities and therefore discriminates based on viewpoint, '' the ruling states.
The plaintiffs — the Animal Legal Defense Fund, the Center for Food Safety, Shy 28, Inc., and Hope Sanctuary — sued in December 2018, claiming the law violated free speech. Named defendants were Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly and Attorney General Derek Schmidt. A spokesman for Schmidt told the Associated Press the decision is being reviewed before the state decides on next steps.
Judge Vratil's decision in this case was somewhat mixed. While she granted the plaintiffs ' motion for summary judgment, meaning the unconstitutional parts of the law — the Farm Animal and Field Crop and Research Facilities Protection Act — can not be legally enforced, some parts will remain. Those sections make it a crime to physically damage animals and facilities, and they lay out the civil penalties for violations.
Animal Legal Defense Fund Executive Director Stephen Wells said in a release the judge's opinion is a victory for the millions of animals raised for meat on factory farms.
`` For 30 years, Kansas lawmakers have suppressed whistleblowers from investigating cruel conditions on factory farms with this unconstitutional law, '' he said.
The Kansas `` ag-gag '' law was the oldest of all such laws in the U.S. Coalitions formed by the ALDF have had courts overturn similar laws in Idaho, Iowa and Utah. Lawsuits against `` ag-gag '' laws in Arkansas and North Carolina are still working their way through the courts. According to the ALDF, the only places with `` ag-gag '' laws still on the books that have not been challenged in court are Montana, North Dakota and Missouri. Every state law that has been legally challenged has been overturned.
It's possible the Kansas federal court decision will set a precedent for this type of law in other states or influence lawmakers to more carefully craft such legislation to avoid complaints of unconstitutionality. Elected officials in the Sunflower State, which is one of the country's major agricultural producers, could also decide to appeal the judge's opinion or amend the existing law to make it less likely to draw further legal challenges.
Should the state decide to stick with the new status quo, Kansas producers could still have recourse in the courts if their farms or animals are harmed, and perpetrators may face civil penalties if convicted. Those remaining sections of the law might be their best line of defense against animal welfare activism — unless the state appeals and a higher court decides to go in a different direction.
It's likely Kansas poultry, pork and beef producers have been watching the progress of this case. Several major producers do a lot of their livestock raising and processing in the state. One of the largest producers is Hormel Foods, which has a precooked bacon plant in Wichita that recently expanded. In 2017, Tyson Foods had planned to build a $ 300-million poultry processing facility near Tonganoxie, Kansas, but decided to build it in Tennessee instead following local objection to the project. At the time, Tyson said it was still considering sites in Kansas for future plants.
With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach.
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With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation. | general |
Downloads of a Pandemic-Themed Game Surge As Coronavirus News Spreads | After the app's popularity spiked in China and the US, the makers of Plague Inc. warned players that it is “ not a scientific model '' of real outbreak situations. | tech |
The Coronavirus Is a Threat to the Global Drug Supply | The world's pharmaceutical supply chain is in danger as the virus spreads across China and jeopardizes travel and trade. | tech |
Dairy industry flexing to add CBD despite regulatory uncertainty | The head of the International Dairy Foods Association said an `` insatiable appetite '' for these products could prompt more companies to enter the space, even without FDA approval.
SCOTTSDALE, Arizona — An `` absolute insatiable ( consumer) appetite for more CBD '' products will spur companies in dairy to consider rolling out products even if the FDA hasn't established a clear framework allowing their use in food and beverage products, the head of a group representing the nation's dairy manufacturers, marketers and suppliers said on Monday.
`` Industry is moving and saying 'Look, we're going to be careful with the claims we make, and yes we're going to take some risk, ' '' Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association, told reporters at its annual conference in Arizona.
`` They are going to find a way ( to make CBD products). There is such a tremendous consumer demand for it, there is such a market for it that they are going to find some way to tap into that market rather than wait for the '' FDA to catch up, he said.
A Rabobank report found last May that CBD has entered food and beverage products — beer, coffee, cocktails, jelly beans and others — at an `` astounding pace '' and the market shows no sign of abating.
`` They are going to find a way ( to make CBD products.) There is such a tremendous consumer demand for it, there is such a market for it that they are going to find some way to tap into that market rather than wait for the '' FDA to catch up.
Michael Dykes
President and CEO, International Dairy Foods Association
Spending on all cannabinoids, which also includes marijuana and its psychoactive THC derivative, is projected to grow to $ 4.1 billion by 2022 from $ 1.5 billion in 2018, according to a report from BDS Analytics. A study from A.T. Kearney in 2018 found 40% of U.S. consumers said they would be willing to try a cannabis edible.
For now, large food companies, including dairy, are taking a wait-and-see attitude until more regulatory clarity is provided.
Mondelez, which makes Triscuits and Oreos, told CNBC last May that CBD could be a part of its future snack innovations. Bolthouse Farms ' CEO told Food Dive last November it planned to introduce two ready-to-drink beverage lines that contain the ingredient — a low sugar, low calorie functional beverage and a coffee option. Coca-Cola also is reportedly monitoring the space, but the beverage giant has denied it has any plans to enter the segment anytime soon.
Jim Watson, a senior beverage analyst at Rabobank speaking on a CBD panel, told the audience at the IDFA's Dairy Forum that companies are looking at CBD use differently depending on their size. Startups value the first-mover advantage and the attraction of a fast-growing market; they're less likely to be flustered if the FDA cracks down on them, he said. For large CPGs, the market is currently too small compared to the inherent risk they could face if they enter the space and upset the government.
Martin Hahn, a partner at Hogan Lovells US, agreed. `` The market is there and the market it is continuing to grow, '' he told the audience during the same panel. Businesses entering the segment are not the Fortune 500-size companies because `` they tend to be more conservative, appropriately so,... they have much more to lose if the FDA seizes their products. ''
Dairy products such as milk, shakes and ice cream laced with CBD so far appear to be mostly relegated to smaller players. In November, hemp-based food and drink maker Food Hemp launched the first CBD plant-based milk in the U.K. Ice cream maker Ben & Jerry's announced in 2019 that the Unilever-owned brand will create CBD-infused frozen treats in the U.S., but only once there are regulations in place from the FDA.
Dykes told reporters that larger dairy companies entering the space would most likely not put their name brands on it. Instead, they could introduce new brands focused on CBD or look outside the company by licensing another product or entering into a joint venture.
In the dairy space, Watson said ice cream makes the most sense for using CBD because of the frozen treat's association as a snack to indulge and relax with at the end of the day. Coffee creamers and post-recovery drinks consumed following exercise also could be potential vehicles for CBD. One area unlikely to see the ingredient is milk, which Watson said is closely associated with kids while CBD is tied to marijuana.
`` You wouldn't go anywhere near that, '' Watson said.
Even as more consumers look to CBD-infused products, regulatory hurdles are in place that are slowing the debut of these products on a wider scale. CBD is regulated on a state level, with the substance remaining illegal in foods and beverages on a national level.
If an ingredient has been approved for medical use through the FDA's drug review process, it can not be added to food or beverages under current law. The agency could create an exception, but has never issued a regulation like that for any substance before. Still, several companies are already infusing food and beverage products with CBD despite murky federal restrictions in place.
There also is uncertainty over health claims associated with CBD, which include its ability to lessen pain, lower blood pressure and reduce anxiety. The FDA recently cracked down on unfounded claims from a handful of companies making CBD-infused products.
Speakers on the IDFA panel discussing CBD were in agreement that its use in dairy and other food and beverage products would benefit from federal guidelines from the FDA, specifically one that established a safe threshold for the amount that can go into products. Without it, Hahn said CBD risks becoming similar to marijuana on the state level where regulations can vary widely.
`` That would the death knell for any ( International Dairy Foods Association) member companies because you just don't function at the state level, '' he said.
Hahn expressed doubt that the FDA would act anytime soon. The agency has expressed `` significant safety concerns '' with hemp extracts and CBD, citing potential impacts on liver toxicity and adverse affects with other drugs, among more than a dozen other additional issues it has raised.
To quell these concerns, he said the food industry could conduct toxicology tests, but it's likely to take several years to gather and analyze all the information needed to satisfy the FDA.
`` If you are the dairy industry and you want to be first-in-class and take that aggressive stance and you're going to go out and commercialize a dairy product that contains hemp extracts, you have to have the legal basis to add it, '' he said. `` Before you start going making claims in the dairy industry, you need to make sure you have the support, which is going to require some type of clinical study. ''
Kelly Shea, senior vice president of government affairs and corporate communications with Charlotte's Web, underscored the need for consistent standards. Charlotte's Web currently doesn't sell food with CBD. Instead, it uses the ingredient in oils, capsules, topicals and pet products.
`` We want this to be regulated, '' she told the audience of dairy farmers, food manufacturers and analysts. `` We would love to be selling to people like you. ''
Shea, who worked at Danone and WhiteWave before coming to Charlotte's Web, warned that when CBD is used in food and other products it needs to be consistent — an area where the industry needs to improve. It must lack harmful heavy metals or pesticides, and needs to follow through on its promised efficacy from batch to batch or it could ultimately discourage companies or consumers from using it if it's unreliable.
With clarity not expected from the FDA, Hahn said there is little to stop food and beverage companies from using the ingredients in their products. `` What we have now is the wild, Wild West, '' he said.
Follow Christopher Doering on Twitter
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach.
With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation.
Subscribe to Food Dive to get the must-read news & insights in your inbox.
Topics covered: manufacturing, packaging, new products, R & D, and much more.
Discover announcements from companies in your industry.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach. | general |
Kansas federal judge finds most of state's 'ag-gag ' law unconstitutional | Kansas U.S. District Court Judge Kathryn Vratil overturned most of the state's `` ag-gag '' law, ruling it violates the First Amendment right to free speech by criminalizing undercover investigations by animal welfare activists at factory farms and slaughterhouses.
In her 39-page opinion filed Jan. 22, Vratil wrote the Kansas law adopted in 1990 discriminates against certain speech based on its content and is therefore unconstitutional. `` The law plainly targets negative views about animal facilities and therefore discriminates based on viewpoint, '' the ruling states.
The plaintiffs — the Animal Legal Defense Fund, the Center for Food Safety, Shy 28, Inc., and Hope Sanctuary — sued in December 2018, claiming the law violated free speech. Named defendants were Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly and Attorney General Derek Schmidt. A spokesman for Schmidt told the Associated Press the decision is being reviewed before the state decides on next steps.
Judge Vratil's decision in this case was somewhat mixed. While she granted the plaintiffs ' motion for summary judgment, meaning the unconstitutional parts of the law — the Farm Animal and Field Crop and Research Facilities Protection Act — can not be legally enforced, some parts will remain. Those sections make it a crime to physically damage animals and facilities, and they lay out the civil penalties for violations.
Animal Legal Defense Fund Executive Director Stephen Wells said in a release the judge's opinion is a victory for the millions of animals raised for meat on factory farms.
`` For 30 years, Kansas lawmakers have suppressed whistleblowers from investigating cruel conditions on factory farms with this unconstitutional law, '' he said.
The Kansas `` ag-gag '' law was the oldest of all such laws in the U.S. Coalitions formed by the ALDF have had courts overturn similar laws in Idaho, Iowa and Utah. Lawsuits against `` ag-gag '' laws in Arkansas and North Carolina are still working their way through the courts. According to the ALDF, the only places with `` ag-gag '' laws still on the books that have not been challenged in court are Montana, North Dakota and Missouri. Every state law that has been legally challenged has been overturned.
It's possible the Kansas federal court decision will set a precedent for this type of law in other states or influence lawmakers to more carefully craft such legislation to avoid complaints of unconstitutionality. Elected officials in the Sunflower State, which is one of the country's major agricultural producers, could also decide to appeal the judge's opinion or amend the existing law to make it less likely to draw further legal challenges.
Should the state decide to stick with the new status quo, Kansas producers could still have recourse in the courts if their farms or animals are harmed, and perpetrators may face civil penalties if convicted. Those remaining sections of the law might be their best line of defense against animal welfare activism — unless the state appeals and a higher court decides to go in a different direction.
It's likely Kansas poultry, pork and beef producers have been watching the progress of this case. Several major producers do a lot of their livestock raising and processing in the state. One of the largest producers is Hormel Foods, which has a precooked bacon plant in Wichita that recently expanded. In 2017, Tyson Foods had planned to build a $ 300-million poultry processing facility near Tonganoxie, Kansas, but decided to build it in Tennessee instead following local objection to the project. At the time, Tyson said it was still considering sites in Kansas for future plants.
With its products in public school cafeterias and a teen-focused website that connects animal agriculture to global warming, the company aims to feed and educate the next generation.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach.
Subscribe to Food Dive to get the must-read news & insights in your inbox.
Topics covered: manufacturing, packaging, new products, R & D, and much more.
Discover announcements from companies in your industry.
As consumers turn to other beverages, Gavin Hattersley has moved aggressively into energy drinks, diet soda and tequila to revive his company's portfolio — all while combating challenges like COVID-19 and a security breach. | general |
Coronavirus: Hackers are exploiting the COVID-19 outbreak to steal your information | COVID-19, the coronavirus that has the world on edge, is bringing another threat to our doorsteps -- hackers. TechRepublic's Karen Roby spoke with Rasmus Holst, chief revenue officer at Wire, about the ways that hackers can exploit people's interest in the disease to attack your business. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.
Karen Roby: Is it possible the coronavirus could increase our risk for a cyberattack? As we know, sometimes when we're most vulnerable, bad things can happen, and we don't even realize they're happening. Rasmus Holst is the chief revenue officer for Wire. Rasmus, thanks for being with us here today to talk about this.
SEE: Coronavirus: Critical IT policies and tools every business needs ( TechRepublic)
It's our job just to pass along information to people, give people things to think about, especially at a time like right now. We're hearing so much information, different things coming in from different outlets about the coronavirus and what we need to keep in mind. So connect the dots for us here between coronavirus and cybersecurity.
Rasmus Holst: Thank you for having me on, Karen. Let's first at least say that cybersecurity is a problem whatever happens. It's a $ 6 trillion loss to businesses and governments every year. It's 3% of our global GDP. So, in essence, the coronavirus just does a couple of things for how we react as human beings to a crisis. We tend to increase our awareness and therefore be more interested in information that's coming our way. And that, of course, looking at something like phishing attacks, increases the risk that your employees might actually jump right into something they think is information about the coronavirus. And yet, it is a phishing attack used by malicious actors who know the psychology of people. And as the barriers for an awareness of getting information in increases, they actually use that as the underlying marketability to get in and hack your network.
SEE: Coronavirus domain names are the latest hacker trick ( TechRepublic)
Karen Roby: And when we talk about, Rasmus, psychology, we know that a lot of people are on edge right now just waiting to hear, is this something that they need to be concerned with? Is it something that their company may be sending down directives for? Talk a little bit about when we are most vulnerable, as a lot of people are right now, what we tend to do -- we tend to jump on links maybe that otherwise we would normally stop and think not to.
Rasmus Holst: Take the example of coming to work: You know there's coronavirus. Your CEO sends out an email, `` This is how we should respond to the crisis. '' It has a link there to read the policy, how you would get to work and all those kinds of things. The only thing that's not true about that is that this email was never ever sent by your CEO. It was sent by malicious actors, similar to a normal phishing attack. You would be prone to click that because you think it's information you shall have, you shall understand, you shall be aware of, and therefore you will click it. It's an easy way for malicious actors to now use that, `` I need the information, '' to get into your network. Similarly with SMS, say that someone set up an SMS campaign, sent that to a thousand people in your company saying, `` Please call this number to make sure that you are secure. ''
SEE: Coronavirus having major effect on tech industry beyond supply chain delays ( free PDF) ( TechRepublic)
But at the other end they 've set up a premium number costing you $ 20 a minute and every single one of them spends a minute on the call. That's $ 20,000 out of your pocket straight to malicious actors. So you just need to think about the awareness of your employees of these types of things and that in a situation like this, they are very likely to click information about what's really going on with the company, with the external world around you and get information about the coronavirus, that malicious actors use to basically penetrate your network or defraud you of your money.
Karen Roby: We were talking earlier, too, about how remote workers, how this could be, how they could play into this.
Rasmus Holst: I think the coronavirus just underpins another trend that we see in the market, and I think most boards and executives right now, they go back and say, `` Do we actually have a proper strategy for the remote workplace? Do we have video conferencing in place? Do we have collaboration platforms in place? Do we have secure, outside-our-network perimeter collaboration tools in place? Are all of these things in place so that we can continue to work even if we didn't come back into the workplace? And can the business function without an actual office? ''
SEE: How coronavirus may accelerate the future of work ( ZDNet)
But again, if we look at it in the shape of the coronavirus, it is not something that the coronavirus created. It amplified the need for the remote workplace, but it's already an underlying trend in how we go to work, how we perform our daily tasks. I think in North America, more than 50% of knowledge workers have at least one day out of the office every week. So, most companies are prepared. Now, all of a sudden, you just have a full population outside of your firewall, and you need to understand how you 'd deal with that and keep the productivity of the business even if you have to go to drastic measures and not have people in the office given a situation like the coronavirus.
Karen Roby: I like how you said at the beginning, of course, all this comes down to no matter what with coronavirus, cybersecurity is something that we need to always keep top of mind and out in front of our conversations certainly because the implications can be huge as to what can happen if a company opens itself up, possibly, or an employee does, to one of these attacks.
Strengthen your organization's IT security defenses by keeping abreast of the latest cybersecurity news, solutions, and best practices. Delivered Tuesdays and Thursdays
| tech |
Coronavirus: UBS and Credit Suisse Taking Precautions | Both big Swiss banks have major operations in China. And both are now exposed to the health-scare that is keeping Asia in its grip.
The ring-fencing that global banks in China are forced to enact is not of a typical kind for the financial world: the companies are called upon to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus through staff traveling from one country to the next.
UBS and Credit Suisse, No. 1 and No. 3 in Asian private banking, are in the focus. Both banks have major operations in Hong Kong and are top competitors in China’ s mainland market.
Taking the Temperature
UBS ordered those of its 2,500 bankers based in Hong Kong who return from China to work from home, according to a report by the « Financial Times » ( behind paywall). The offices of Switzerland’ s largest bank remain open for business, but travel to mainland branches from abroad have been cancelled – save for exceptional reasons.
Home office is also what’ s on for the Credit Suisse bankers in Hong Kong that have visited the mainland of China over the past 14 days. Bankers with flu symptoms are only allowed back once they have recovered fully and with a doctor’ s note. The bank is offering staff to take their temperature at its Hong Kong headquarters. Like its arch rival, Credit Suisse has put a travel ban to mainland China in force. | general |
Shruti Advani: « This Uncommon Cold in Hong Kong » | A third iteration of the dreaded Coronavirus that first swept the region as SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2014 has resurfaced, claiming lives and eroding value – as much as 0.5 percent of China’ s GDP. Can an already weakened Hong Kong remain immune?
Even as beleaguered chief Carrie Lam makes the case in Davos for Hong Kong as a global investment destination, skepticism around its future reaches a feverish pitch. Despite any charm, the otherwise steely leader may be able to muster, the numbers are damning – when China sneezes, Hong Kong quite literally catches a cold.
In 2018, over 50 percent of all outbound investment from China, including that associated with its Belt and Road Initiative, was routed through Hong Kong. In the same year, a Wealth-X census estimated that, with 285 billionaires, China was home to the largest population of uber-wealthy outside of the U.S., Hong Kong’ s unique status as clearinghouse to the world’ s second-largest economy and its cultural and geographical ties to its newly-minted wealthy made it a magnet for both investment and private banks.
Evidence of a Slowdown
A walk through Hong Kong’ s Central business district or coffee at Cafe Causette which doubles up as an unofficial meeting room for bankers from nearby HSBC, Standard Chartered, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi will provide enough evidence of a slowdown.
A trifecta of factors – the unrest, the customary shutdown over Chinese New Year and the Coronavirus outbreak – have « brought things to a complete halt, » says a headhunter who has decamped to Europe temporarily, hoping order will soon return. He will not, however, be going back to Hong Kong as planned at the end of the month, which also marks the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Rat.
Not Enough Deal Flow
« There is not much interest from either banks or candidates at the moment and schools have been ordered to remain shut at the end of the usual New Year holidays. » Notwithstanding Alibaba’ s secondary listing on the Hong Kong Exchange last year – a move that had all the markings of a Chinese state-led public relations exercise – there is not enough deal flow to justify the presence of the hordes of bankers that once called Hong Kong home.
And the many billionaires and millionaires private banks were so tantalized by? They are keen to prove allegiance to the Motherland by taking their business elsewhere.
No Tourists, No Swiss Watches
But it isn’ t only the financial services industry, which is cyclical at the best of times, that is suffering. World Bank data estimates that 28 million tourists came to Hong Kong, a city of 7 million people, in 2018. Arrivals from China account for 70 percent of these visitors. Given their penchant for luxury, Mainland tourism skewed Hong Kong’ s economy disproportionately towards retail.
Not only is it the largest market in the world for premium Swiss watches, for example, auction houses Christie's and Sotheby’ s have both broken records for sales of fine jewelry, rare handbags, and wines to seemingly price-agnostic connoisseurs in Hong Kong.
Ban on Group Travel
However, instability has upended the trend. In October last year, data from The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry confirmed a 30 percent contraction in the demand for luxury watches in Hong Kong, whereas regional rival Singapore registered a 5 percent increase in the same month. The culprit?
A corresponding 29 percent fall in arrivals from China, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. That the slump is likely to continue, was confirmed by Beijing’ s decision to impose a ban on group travel as a way to contain the spread of Coronavirus, an embargo that is likely to stay in place for months.
Too Early To Call It Quits?
There has been a range of reactions from banks to fears of a pandemic, but commentators agree that a measured response is probably the most appropriate one. The most recent research note from Bank of Singapore expects the virus « to have a less severe impact than SARS » and it was « unlikely to cause lasting damage to the global economy ».
Some part of this optimism must stem from the influence of China – and hence, Hong Kong – as an economic and political heavyweight. Far from being the emerging economy, it was during the SARS outbreak, the region is too big to fail today. But an equal amount must surely stem from the resilience Hong Kong – and its people – have shown, civil unrest, recessions, and viruses notwithstanding. | general |
Anti-Coronavirus Foundation Created in Davos to Fund Research | The Geneva based Anti-Coronavirus Foundation announced that it will raise funds among crypto enthusiasts for the further financing of a vaccine against coronavirus.
The outbreak of a new coronavirus in China has killed at least 17 people and infected more than 400, and the foundation feels there might be a risk of the virus spreading to several other countries. The foundation fears the new virus may resemble or even outpass damage brought on by the SARS virus, which affected thousands of people around the world and killed nearly 800 during the 2003 outbreak.
There is currently very little known about the virus, the way it spreads, its incubation period ( which is believed to be about two weeks) and who is most at risk. For now, the coronavirus is as the pathogen behind a mysterious illness that had affected 59 people in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in central China
Yury Myshinskiy, co-founder and CEO of CryptOcean, will chair the new foundation. The Anti-Coronavirus Foundation intends to finance the first company or group of individuals to develop a working vaccine, available for mass production and use. The first task set by the creators of the foundation is to create a $ 30,000,000 reward pool to be given to a person or institution which creates a vaccine for the coronavirus.
The foundation feels that it is important that all resources are mobilized to start financing of the laboratory work and clinical studies in as many medical and scientific institutions around the globe as possible to deliver the solution of the problem to be able to help the affected.
To ensure the transparency of its functioning, all transactions are to be handled in CRON blockchain, run by the firm CryptOcean under the supervision of the founding advisory board, which will be comprised of trusted and publicly recognized individuals. The foundation is registered in Switzerland, a country with high level of transparency and legislation for non-profit organizations
The blockchain platform will allow anyone to send funds to finance future research. Initially, developers are considering cryptocurrency donations, but, a Coinstelegram report referring to the official website of the project, suggests support for fiat donations will appear in the near future.
On the official website of the Anti-Coronavirus Foundation, the founders turn to pharmacological corporations, urging them to make every effort to solve the problem. The published message also urges prominent entrepreneurs, philanthropists and humanitarian organizations to help mobilize support for the affected. | tech |
Brent oil may fall in price this week | A decline in the price of European Brent crude oil is observed at the energy exchanges, Trend reports referring to the Azerbaijani InvestAz investment company’ s weekly report.
The important fundamental data on oil and gasoline reserves in the US, which will be revealed on Jan. 29 at 19:30 ( GMT+4) is expected to affect the dynamics of prices.
InvestAZ analysts also presented the data on the situation in international financial markets and short-term forecasts.
The increasing prevalence of coronavirus revealed in China leads to an increase in demand for the US dollar, increasing uncertainty on international currency exchanges. So, as for the EUR / USD exchange rate, the rate is forecasted to reach up to $ 1.09 per euro.
The investors will focus on the press-conference of the Federal Reserve System and important fundamental indicators of the US economic development on Jan. 29 at 23:30 ( GMT+4) and Jan. 30 at 17:30 ( GMT+4), as well as fundamental indicators of economic development in the Eurozone - on Jan. 31 at 14:00 ( GMT+4).
The GBP / USD exchange rate is also under pressure for the same reasons and if the pound remains below the maximum level of the previous week ( $ 1.31), then it may become cheaper by $ 1.3.
The UK’ s interest rate decision is expected to be announced on Jan. 30 at 13:30 ( GMT+4).
A decrease is also observed in TRY/USD exchange rate, while it is forecasted that it may continue up to the level of 5.99 Turkish liras per US dollar.
The investors will focus on disclosing the information about Turkey’ s trade turnover on Jan. 31 at 11:00 ( GMT+4).
The demand for gold in the markets of non-ferrous metals remains at the topical level as a result of the political and economic risks in the world. So, the price per ounce last week began to rise again and may reach $ 1,588 ( $ 51.1 per gram). In accordance with the analysis, if the price breaks even this level, then the price may continue to increase up to $ 1,600 ( $ 51.5 per gram).
Attention: The abovementioned data are completely recommendatory in nature. The operations on these activities are included in the high-risk group and InvestAz, proceeding from the abovementioned data, does not bear any obligations for ongoing investment operations. | general |
Watch out for this extremely fake, weirdly racist viral post about coronavirus | From fake Coachella posters and deepfake videos to Trump tweets and clout-chasing tragedy porn, there is no shortage of stuff on the internet trying to convince you of things that aren't true. But an Australia-focused viral misinformation post about the coronavirus, packed with errors, typos, and blatantly made-up details, is still being shared by individuals and business pages on social media despite being both debunked and widely mocked.
The text post, which has been copied and shared on Facebook as well as harder-to-track Instagram Stories, claims `` Corna's disease '' is `` starting to spread in the greater Sydney region, '' and warns of `` contiminated [ sic ] products '' ( the spelling mistake is replicated in most iterations of the text).
The post then lists a random collection of popular Asian foods supposedly made in `` neighbouring areas '' to Wuhan— the Chinese city where the current virus originated — and are thus claimed to contain `` traces of corona's disease. '' These foods include wagyu beef and Yakult ( which are Japanese), Nongshim Onion Ring snacks ( Korean), Mi Goreng instant noodles ( Indonesian), Lipton peach-flavoured iced tea ( made and bottled all over the world), fortune cookies, two varieties of rice, and Red Bull ( both `` Chinese '' and `` normal '').
Even more bizarrely, it claims the `` bureau of diseasology parramatta '' lists some `` areas which people with corona's disease have visited and contaminated, '' proven by `` positive readings '' in the air near train stations. A couple of the Western Sydney suburbs listed have large populations of people who are of Chinese ( or Vietnamese) birth or descent. The Sydney suburb of Parramatta is not home to a `` Bureau of Diseasology, '' however, as it does not exist.
The post lists a random collection of popular Asian foods claimed to contain `` traces of corona's disease ''
The name for study of diseases is actually epidemiology — and epidemiologists currently advise that coronavirus has not been proven to be transmitted by contaminated food or air, but rather by respiratory droplets ( e.g. sneezing or coughing).
The post has been repeatedly debunked by the ( actually real) New South Wales Department of Health throughout the course of Tuesday — with the existence of the mysterious Bureau specifically denied — but it was still being shared on social media as of at least 5 p.m. Sydney time. In some versions, extra suburbs had been added to the list of `` contaminated '' areas.
Fake news and misinformation around the coronavirus is wild. Childcare centres are sharing a post claiming wagyu beef and mi goreng could have traces of the virus and that the `` bureau of diseasology Parramatta '' is testing the air. Everyone knows that burea relocated to Ryde. pic.twitter.com/FO3Nbd5z5L
— Kevin Nguyen ( @ cog ink) January 28, 2020
1/2 @ NSWHealth has been made aware of a social media post that is being widely circulated warning people to not consume certain foods or visit certain locations in Sydney. This post has not originated from NSW Health or any related entity... pic.twitter.com/GcvM4aG4ga
— NSW Health ( @ NSWHealth) January 28, 2020
If you spot anything like what's in this picture on social media, do your duty and repeat the NSW Health mantra: 👏 * there is no such entity as the `` Department of Diseasology Paramatta '' * 👏 https: //t.co/PDBUb2VgDq pic.twitter.com/YGujsoA9yz
— Carl Smith ( @ Carl3Smith) January 28, 2020
Four of the five confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia are in the state of NSW, and as most schools began classes on Tuesday, parents of children who have recently been to China were encouraged to keep their kids home until two weeks from their return date. At least one Sydney council also postponed its Lunar New Year celebrations over the previous weekend out of concern over the virus ' spread. And lines formed outside pharmacies in the Sydney CBD, as Sydneysiders queued to buy face masks. ( Not everyone has invested yet, despite the ongoing bushfire smoke.)
Meanwhile, `` Department of Diseasology '' trended in Australia on Tuesday afternoon, as Twitter users made jokes and memes about the post.
SEE ALSO: The coronavirus has sent a video game about wiping out humanity to # 1
The text's scattershot, racist targeting of widely popular Asian snack foods and disdain for spellcheck give it a shitpost-level absurdity — it's hard to believe anyone meant it to be taken seriously, let alone succeeded.
But its sloppy phrasing might not be a dead giveaway for someone whose English isn't strong — and it's also powered by racist stereotypes about Asian food, people, and standards of hygiene.
Amid the deaths in China and the documented spread of the virus to a handful of other countries, East Asian people are reporting being profiled and avoided on public transport, recalling similar racism experienced during the SARS outbreak.
In my Chinese moms chat group, we discussed how to brace ourselves and the kids for the inevitable wave of racism coming our way as this unfolds.Many of us have never even been to China but know we will not go unscathed. https: //t.co/hz7YCPjyb5
— Terri Chu ( @ TerriChu) January 25, 2020
The reason Western coverage of the coronavirus is so racist is bc it feeds orientalizing narratives of Chinese people as a dirty, diseased orientals and provides an excuse for increased Western aggression & `` containment '' of China as well as suspicion of Chinese in Western nations
— Muqing ( @ muqingmq) January 26, 2020
Some of the earliest iterations of the post spotted by Mashable have already vanished from Facebook, where it seems to have originated, but it persists nonetheless. Whether its intent was earnest or not, misinformation like this feeds, and feeds off, racial profiling, ignorance, and fear. As with the arson conspiracy theories and misinformation that thrived once the Australian bushfires hit international headlines, it's likely this misinfo will continue to spread and mutate throughout the internet despite best efforts to debunk it.
As always, take officially-recommended precautions as necessary – and be sure to double check your sources before sharing information on social media. | tech |
Soybeans CFR China price hits 8-month low on coronavirus worries | Battery metal prices have been escalating, placing price pressure on battery pack costs and overall...
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Singapore — Front-month soybeans on a CFR China basis hit an eight-month low of $ 383.05/mt on Tuesday, as assessed by S & P Global Platts, on fears the coronavirus outbreak will reduce Chinese demand.
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Chinese soybean crushers are concerned about a potential slowdown in domestic soybean meal sales as less pork was consumed during Chinese New Year because people avoided public places out of fear of contracting the virus.
At the same time, many rural areas of China have started blocking all the roads to prevent unnecessary movement of people as ordered by local governments to prevent the spread of the virus. As a result, rural pig farms are having difficulty transporting their animals to potential buyers.
`` The Chinese government just extended the Chinese New Year holiday in an attempt to prevent a large movement of people after the Chinese New Year festivities. A result of this will be a further dampening of soybean demand in China as Chinese crushing plants will either continue crushing lower volumes or remain closed for the [ extended ] holiday, '' a trader said.
Market participants calculated, so far there are plenty of soybeans stocks available in China of about 8 million mt available for crushing. `` Chinese soybeans buyers will likely to stay cautious for the next following weeks as there are enough soybean stocks for them to crush at the moment, '' a source said.
Dalian soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil futures will not reopen again until Monday due to the extended holiday.
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Coronavirus outbreak could cut South Korea jet fuel exports 15% -35% in Q1 | Ira Joseph, directora de gas y electricidad de Platts Analytics, y Ryan Ouwerkerk, director de...
Brazil's Buzios crude is set to make further inroads into China in the coming months, as production...
OPEC is more bullish on the global economic recovery for next year, projecting world oil demand to...
Singapore — The series of airport shutdowns in several major China cities and multiple travel warnings issued across Asia Pacific amid the coronavirus outbreak could drastically curb the region's air traffic flows and put a significant pressure on South Korea's jet fuel exports.
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South Korea exported around 26.25 million barrels of aviation fuel in Q1 2019, according to data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp., but volumes could fall between 15% and 35% this year to around 17 million-22 million barrels, according to a S & P Global Platts survey of traders and fuel marketing sources at major South Korean refiners SK Innovation, S-Oil, GS Caltex and Hyundai Oilbank.
The survey found South Korea's fuel exports almost halved during the 2003 SARS outbreak, when flight traffic and passenger ticket sales plunged across East Asia, leading to dismal jet fuel sales the refiners. South Korea saw its jet fuel exports fall to 27.66 million barrels in 2003, down 34.2% from 2002, KNOC data showed.
The Ministry of Transportation said China's air passenger turnover on Monday slumped 39.2% year on year to 1.07 million people.
Fuel marketing sources at SK Innovation and GS Caltex said they will closely monitor cutbacks in flight plans and routes from major national carriers as there would be a sharp drop in overseas travel demand.
When asked about the possible reduction in jet fuel yield in their refinery oil product slate or linear programming model, the refinery sources declined to comment.
If the coronavirus is as bad as the SARS outbreak, S & P Global Platts Analytics forecasts global oil demand could fall by 700,000-800,000 b/d, reflecting more than half of the expected demand growth for 2020.
Beijing has expanded quarantine efforts to encompass around 46 million people, according to media reports. The city council of Wuhan, considered the source of the outbreak, closed the city's airport and railway stations January 23 and has suspended all public transportation services, including city buses, subway, ferry and coach.
The coronavirus death toll in China has grown to more than 100, according to media reports Tuesday morning. The national Lunar New Year holidays in China has been extended by three days to Sunday in an effort to contain the spread.
Major customers of South Korean jet fuel, including China, Hong Kong, Australia and the US, have all issued air travel warnings in recent weeks, painting a bleak picture for Q1 sales. The four outlets accounted for close to 70% of South Korea's total jet fuel exports in 2019, according to KNOC data.
Reflecting the tepid commercial passenger flight demand and aviation fuel consumption outlook in Asia, jet fuel crack spreads have plunged to multiyear lows.
The FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene crack against front-month cash Dubai crude plummeted January 23 to its lowest in nearly 32 months at $ 9.96/b, before recouping some of its losses Friday, rising to $ 10.83/b. Platts data showed the physical crack was last lower June 8, 2017, at $ 9.88/b.
In the derivative market, the front-month February Singapore jet fuel swap against Dubai swap, which measures the relative value of the product to crude oil, fell to $ 10.72/b January 22. The last time the paper crack spread was assessed lower was June 27, 2017, at $ 10.35/b, Platts data showed.
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How contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus and can you spread it before symptoms start? | Cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have increased dramatically over the past week, prompting concerns about how contagious the virus is and how it spreads.
According to the World Health Organisation, 16-21% of people with the virus in China became severely ill and 2-3% of those infected have died.
A key factor that influences transmission is whether the virus can spread in the absence of symptoms – either during the incubation period ( the days before people become visibly ill) or in people who never get sick.
On Sunday, Chinese officials said transmission had occurred during the incubation period.
Influenza is the classic example of a virus that can spread when people have no symptoms at all.
In contrast, people with SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome) only spread the virus when they had symptoms.
No published scientific data are available to support China’ s claim transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus occurred during the incubation period.
However, one study published in the Lancet medical journal showed children may be shedding ( or transmitting) the virus while asymptomatic. The researchers found one child in an infected family had no symptoms but a chest CT scan revealed he had pneumonia and his test for the virus came back positive.
This is different to transmission in the incubation period, as the child never got ill, but it suggests it’ s possible for children and young people to be infectious without having any symptoms.
This is a concern because if someone gets sick, you want to be able to identify them and track their contacts. If someone transmits the virus but never gets sick, they may not be on the radar at all.
It also makes airport screening less useful because people who are infectious but don’ t have symptoms would not be detected.
The Wuhan coronavirus epidemic began when people exposed to an unknown source at a seafood market in Wuhan began falling ill in early December.
Cases remained below 50 to 60 in total until around January 20, when numbers surged. There have now been more than 4,500 cases – mostly in China – and 106 deaths.
Researchers and public health officials determine how contagious a virus is by calculating a reproduction number, or R0. The R0 is the average number of other people that one infected person will infect, in a completely non-immune population.
Different experts have estimated the R0 of the Wuhan coronavirus is anywhere from 1.4 to over five, however the World Health Organisation believes the RO is between 1.4 and 2.5.
If the R0 was higher than 2-3, we should have seen more cases globally by mid January, given Wuhan is a travel and trade hub of 11 million people.
Of the person-to-person modes of transmission, we fear respiratory transmission the most, because infections spread most rapidly this way.
Two kinds of respiratory transmission are through large droplets, which is thought to be short-range, and airborne transmission on much smaller particles over longer distances. Airborne transmission is the most difficult to control.
SARS was considered to be transmitted by contact and over short distances by droplets but can also be transmitted through smaller aerosols over long distances. In Hong Kong, infection was transmitted from one floor of a building to the next.
Initially, most cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were assumed to be from an animal source, localised to the seafood market in Wuhan.
We now know it can spread from person to person in some cases. The Chinese government announced it can be spread by touching and contact. We don’ t know how much transmission is person to person, but we have some clues.
Coronaviruses are respiratory viruses, so they can be found in the nose, throat and lungs.
The amount of Wuhan coronavirus appears to be higher in the lungs than in the nose or throat. If the virus in the lungs is expelled, it could possibly be spread via fine, airborne particles, which are inhaled into the lungs of the recipient.
increased travel for New Year, resulting in the spread of cases around China and globally. Travel is a major factor in the spread of infections
asymptomatic transmissions through children and young people. Such transmissions would not be detected by contact tracing because health authorities can only identify contacts of people who are visibly ill
increased detection, testing and reporting of cases. There has been increased capacity for this by doctors and nurses coming in from all over China to help with the response in Wuhan
continued environmental or animal exposure to a source of infection.
However, with an incubation period as short as one to two days, if the Wuhan coronavirus was highly contagious, we would expect to already have seen widespread transmission or outbreaks in other countries.
Rather, the increase in transmission is likely due to a combination of the factors above, to different degrees. The situation is changing daily, and we need to analyse the transmission data as it becomes available. | business |
Perspectives from Kenya and Ghana on coronavirus preparations | Chinese officials have identified a novel coronavirus which belongs to a family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases. Countries across the world have heightened their disease surveillance systems and, in some cases, issued travel advisories. The Conversation Africa asked experts from Ghana and Kenya about their preparedness.
Abdhalah Ziraba, Kenya: Public health education, particularly for travellers and airport public health staff, is critical. National newspapers and broadcast channels, as well as various social media outlets, should be used. People in all countries, not just Kenya, need to be made aware of the symptoms which include fever, cough, difficulty breathing, sneezing, and body aches.
The other important intervention is to maintain vigilance at entry ports to screen for fever and vet travel histories, particularly incoming flights from China and the region. Kenya has announced that it will screen all passengers arriving from China and increased the levels of vigilance at all entry points.
All suspected cases need to be assessed further. A major consideration will be whether someone has a history of travelling from Wuhan, the Chinese epicentre of the outbreak, and other cities that have reported cases or being in contact with a person suspected of having the disease.
After being assessed, any suspected cases should be reported to the country’ s health authorities immediately, and the subjects isolated and managed as per protocol.
Peter Kojo Quashie, Ghana: A number of measures need to be put in place. Due of the previous and ongoing response to Ebola, some measures are already in place.
Arriving passengers need to be screened for elevated temperatures. Those with high ones need to be quarantined
Port and airport health officials and everyone who will get in contact with travellers should be properly educated on how to behave and what personal protective equipment ( PPE) is required.
Routing passengers arriving from China and other South East Asian countries to another terminal or section, and screening them individually.
Continuous monitoring of passengers from China and South East Asia for at least a month as was done in some countries for people who returned from Ebola endemic regions. These travellers should be counselled on the need to avoid large crowds and non-essential contact with people.
It is important to establish health support for Ghanaians in China, especially in Wuhan. It is also imperative to keep track of Ghanaians in China, providing them support as well as knowing when they return.
Abdhalah Ziraba, Kenya: Airport public health officials have got better at screening at ports of entry, especially for international arrivals. Basic screening is done using thermal cameras to detect fever. Kenyan officials have the equipment in hand and the trained personnel to swing into action fast.
Public health officials need to vigilant and have a high index of suspicion to be able to identify potential cases. They will then be able to flag travellers who seem unwell, more so if they have a matching travel history.
To support their work, public health authorities also need to mobilise a rapid surveillance and response team so that they can manage any suspected cases- including taking samples, isolation and reporting on developments.
Peter Kojo Quashie, Ghana: Temperature screening protocols have been in place since the onset of the 2014 Ebola crisis. I believe they need to be revisited to screen at a lower threshold ( for example temperature > 37.5C) to avoid missing patients who are just beginning to show signs of the disease.
Scientists in the national influenza control lab at the University of Ghana have written standard operating procedures and testing protocols to allow for rapid laboratory detection of this new virus. This effort, in collaboration with Ghana Health Service, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the West African Health Organisation, has been ongoing since the virus was first detected.
Steps that were effective during the Ebola crisis and helped reduce the spread of the virus included hand washing, as well as educating the public about what precautions they have to take for their personal and public health.
Abdhalah Ziraba, Kenya: Many countries are now readying themselves to mount a response bringing together specialists and other players from different sectors with centralised coordinating. Several countries also have epidemic outbreak response plans in place, as well as resources and facilities to deal with situations like this. But the comprehensiveness of these varies greatly.
Finally, with lessons from the Ebola, SAR and MERS outbreaks, there is a greater ability to coordinate a response and to keep the public accurately informed. This prevents a panic situation that often fuels the spread of outbreaks. Public health authorities are now more likely to avoid knee jerk interventions not supported by evidence. These can often be counterproductive, as was the case with the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
Peter Kojo Quashie, Ghana: There are significant differences between the Ebola virus and this coronavirus. First, the spread of Ebola was limited to villagers who crossed border freely, health workers, and a few immigrants who visited their villages and then returned. Second, it is transmissible by bodily fluids, and requires direct contact with an infected individual or surface.
If the latest coronavirus virus is transmitted like MERS or SARS, then it transmits like a the common cold. It is therefore likely to be much more infectious than Ebola.
Fortunately, the preparedness of most African countries were not tested during the West African Ebola epidemic. Unfortunately, that means infection control protocols were never challenged.
In terms of a rapid laboratory diagnosis, we have protocols in place and skilled laboratory personnel. But we have to effectively isolate the risk. That’ s the part that must continuously be worked on and reworked.
We should look at how countries like Canada managed to track down infected people and keep the SARS epidemic in check in 2003. In addition, the WHO protocols published in 2004 for SARS will be more effective than protocols for Ebola. Lessons learned from the still ongoing MERS epidemic would be useful, as well as understanding the issues of stigma and cultural issues that are the main challenges of the response to Ebola in Africa.
Other things to consider are the fact that, unlike SARS and unlike Ebola, there are reports that patients infected with 2019-nCoV are infectious even during the incubation period, before they get a fever. This would mean that temperature screening won’ t work. What would be required is stronger, and different, terminal and individualised screening.
But there are a few recommendations for personal safety that were effective during the SARS and Ebola outbreak. These included avoiding large crowds and stuffy areas as well as not shaking hands. Health sector workers should used enhanced personal protective equipment and change gloves regularly. Finally, masks can help. But they should be changed regularly and disposed of safely.
Lastly, if you have cold or flu-like symptoms and have been in contact with travellers from China, alert public health officials and avoid non-essential contact with others. | business |
Wuhan coronavirus: Death toll tops 100 as infection rate accelerates | The virus has also spread globally to more than 17 countries. On Tuesday, experts from the German Robert-Koch-Institute said they believed that a man who tested positive for coronavirus in Germany is the first case of human-to-human infection in Europe.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong chief executive, told a news conference that the closure of crossings into the semi-autonomous Chinese city would be `` temporary. '' Lam added that the city was also slashing the number of tourist visas it issues to visitors from mainland China, and halving the number of inbound flights from the mainland.
Authorities in Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the outbreak, earlier said an additional 1,300 cases had been confirmed, bringing the total in the region to over 2,700. The majority of those are still in hospital, with more than 125 in critical condition. Between Sunday and Monday, there was a 65% jump in the number of reported cases in mainland China, from around 2,700 to over 4,500.
Elsewhere in China, cases have been confirmed in every province and territory except for Tibet, which this week announced the indefinite closure of all tourist attractions and a mandatory two-week quarantine for all travelers entering the region.
The move to close off Hong Kong comes after intense pressure from lawmakers and medical unions, one of which had threatened to strike if the border was not shut.
On Monday, the US Centers for Disease Control ( CDC) issued a level 3 alert warning against `` all nonessential travel to China '' -- its highest alert on a scale of 1 to 3.
`` There is an ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel ( new) coronavirus that can be spread from person to person, '' the CDC said in a statement, warning `` there is limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. ''
Worldwide concern
More than a dozen countries around the world have confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus, as authorities struggle to stop its spread.
Across Asia, numerous countries have put in extra screening at airports and warned citizens to avoid travel to China. To China's north, neighboring Mongolia has imposed stringent border checks on travelers coming into the country, while Hong Kong earlier banned all visitors from Wuhan.
Indonesia and the Philippines have both introduced extra restrictions on Chinese tourists, while Japan has upgraded its response, allowing authorities to `` force the suspicious cases for hospitalization and testing. ''
Three cases of Wuhan coronavirus were identified in France on Friday and on Tuesday German officials confirmed that a 33-year-old man who had not traveled to China tested positive for the virus.
Speaking at a meeting with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres Monday, China's ambassador to the UN said the country has `` full capability and confidence in winning the battle against the epidemic. ''
`` Putting the interests of the people first, China has taken rapid and strong measures, putting in place a nationwide prevention and control mechanism, '' Ambassador Zhang Jun said.
`` China has been working with the international community in the spirit of openness, transparency and scientific coordination. With a great sense of responsibility, China is sparing no effort in curbing the spread of disease and saving lives. Now is a crucial moment, and China has full capability and confidence in winning the battle against the epidemic. ''
Some 60 million people have been placed under travel restrictions in Hubei, with almost all movement in and out of Wuhan itself stopped and much of the city on lockdown.
Officials have also cracked down on the trade of wild animals, after the Wuhan coronavirus was linked to a seafood market selling exotic live mammals, including bats and civet cats, which have previously been linked to the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Rapid spread
The first cases of the coronavirus were detected in Wuhan in mid-December. Since then the number of confirmed cases has increased a thousandfold, and infections have been reported worldwide.
Hospitals in Wuhan are already massively overstretched, and hundreds of emergency medical personnel have been dispatched to the city to help. Two new hospitals are also being built on the city's outskirts, due to be operational by next week.
Wuhan and Hubei officials have faced criticism for apparently downplaying the danger of the virus in the early weeks of the outbreak. There was a marked shift in the handling of the crisis once the national government got involved on January 22.
Despite the colossal effort -- and potential social and economic cost -- of effectively quarantining Hubei, it appears that this has come too late to stop the virus ' spread. By the time Wuhan introduced even basic screening of travelers leaving the city, the virus had been reported in Japan, Thailand and South Korea, and spread to most of the rest of China.
Part of the problem is that the virus can apparently be spread before symptoms appear, according to China's health minister, Ma Xiaowei.
`` It means the infection is much more contagious than we originally thought, '' William Schaffner, a longtime adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told CNN. `` This is worse than we anticipated. ''
While the current outbreak does not appear to be as deadly as SARS, which killed over 700 people worldwide, it may be spreading more rapidly. That could be due to being more contagious, or the increased interconnectedness of both China and the world than in 2003.
As of mid-March 2003, roughly a month after the World Health Organization ( WHO) was alerted to SARS by Chinese authorities, and three months after the first cases were detected in China, the number of confirmed cases worldwide stood at around 3,200, with 159 confirmed deaths.
Growing fears in Hong Kong
Fears of the virus ' spread have led to calls for increased action in multiple countries and territories, not least in Hong Kong, where memories of SARS still run deep.
Effective midnight on Thursday until further notice, Lam said Hong Kong's measures also include decreasing the number of inbound buses from the mainland, and the suspension of cross-border coach services at the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau Bridge. All cross-border ferry services will also be suspended.
Operations at Hong Kong's West Kowloon Train Station -- which operates high speed rail services to the mainland -- will shut. Passenger services will also be temporarily suspended at the border crossings of Hung Hom, Sha Tau Kok, and Man Kam To.
In addition to the closing many of its borders with China, the city's government announced that government workers would be encouraged to work from home when the Lunar New Year holiday ends on Wednesday. The directive, which excluded emergency service workers and people who work for essential public services, urged the private sector to enforce similar arrangements.
The sweeping moves follow calls from one of the city's leading health experts for `` substantial draconian measures '' to limit population mobility in order to rein in the virus. Speaking at a news conference Monday, Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, warned that the number of cases could potentially double every six days in the absence of decisive government action.
`` This epidemic is growing at quite a fast rate and it's accelerating, '' said Leung, who is also the founding director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Infection Disease Epidemiology and Control in Hong Kong. He predicted the actual number of cases -- including those who are incubating the virus but not yet showing symptoms -- could be 10 times what has been reported.
Leung's team modeled two scenarios -- one with a population quarantine as has been seen in Wuhan and one without -- but found more or less identical results, because the virus has already spread to other major population centers in China, which could soon see their own self-sustaining epidemics.
Leung said the findings had concerned the team enough that it felt the need to alert the authorities and the public, predicting a peak of cases between April and May.
He added people need to prepare for a potential global pandemic -- though `` not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination... we must prepare better for it, '' he said. | business |
US airlines offer change fee waivers in light of coronavirus outbreak | American Airlines ( AAL) and Delta Air Lines ( DAL) on Monday each extended change fee waivers through the end of February. Earlier, they had issued waivers through the end of January.
That means people scheduled to fly before then on either airline to Beijing or Shanghai — the two cities that each company serves in mainland China — can change to a different flight without paying a fee to do so.
United Airlines ( UAL) also extended waivers for change fees on flights to Beijing, Shanghai or Chengdu through the end of February. Last week, it offered waivers through February 7.
United is also offering refunds to passengers traveling to Wuhan if they bought their ticket by January 21 and are expected to travel there from now until March 29.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday raised its travel precaution for China to its highest level. That means it's advising travelers to `` avoid nonessential travel '' to the country. Previously, only Hubei province — where Wuhan is located — carried such a warning.
The coronavirus has continued to spread. More than 100 people are dead and more than 4,500 cases have been confirmed in mainland China, according to health officials in the country. Dozens of others have been infected worldwide, including at least five cases in the United States.
The CDC has said it is now monitoring for symptoms of the virus among passengers arriving at 20 US airports.
The agency has also announced enhanced screening of passengers from Wuhan at five airports: John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, San Francisco International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.
On Monday, a health official with the CDC said the agency had screened about 2,400 people so far.
— CNN's Dave Alsup and Michael Nedelman contributed to this report. | business |
What is the JCPOA, the deal meant to restrict Iran’ s nuclear activity? | PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA called it “ the strongest non-proliferation agreement ever negotiated ”. President Donald Trump derided it as “ one of the worst deals ever ”. Now the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA) —the unwieldy name given to the multinational nuclear deal signed between Iran and six world powers in 2015—is on its death bed. Mr Trump pulled out of the accord in May 2018 and progressively tightened American sanctions. Iran responded by gradually abandoning the deal’ s restrictions on nuclear activity. President Joe Biden has said that America is willing to rejoin the deal, but Iran’ s hardliners are wary. On November 29th Iranian negotiators will meet the deal’ s remaining signatories in Vienna to discuss reviving the deal. But what exactly is the JCPOA, and can it be saved?
In 2002 the world learned of a secret Iranian uranium-enrichment site buried deep underground. Enrichment refers to the process of spinning uranium in centrifuges to obtain its most fissile isotope, U-235, which can be used in low concentrations in power plants and at high concentrations in a bomb. Iran claimed its interest was the former; much of the world suspected the latter. As regional tensions rose over the next decade, the programme expanded. Western powers piled on increasingly draconian sanctions to force Iran to back down. Rumours swirled that Israel might launch preventive air strikes, as it had on an Iraqi reactor in 1981 and a Syrian site in 2007.
After years of painstaking diplomacy, kick-started by secret negotiations in Oman, Iran reached a bargain in 2015 with the permanent five members of the UN Security Council ( America, Britain, France, Russia and China) plus Germany and the European Union. It mothballed thousands of centrifuges and deferred the use of faster-spinning ones. It agreed to enrich uranium only to low levels. It poured concrete into the core of its heavy-water reactor at Arak, which produces plutonium as a by-product and might have given Iran a separate path to a bomb. And it agreed to the most stringent inspections regime anywhere in the world. In return, the most onerous sanctions were lifted, providing partial relief for Iran’ s battered economy.
The deal’ s proponents argued that the restrictions left Iran more than a year away from being able to produce a bomb’ s worth of fuel, up from a harrowing few months. A deal was also preferable to a war. And tough inspections would deter Iran from cheating. Hawks in America, Israel and the Gulf states were less satisfied. Iran would be allowed to continue enrichment, they complained, and some restrictions would expire within a decade ( though others last 25 years). In the meantime, they argued, Iran would, through the unfreezing of assets, receive tens of billions of dollars that could be funnelled to allied militant groups in the region.
Mr Trump sided with the hawks. A year after withdrawing from the deal he terminated waivers that had allowed some countries to continue buying Iranian oil. Iran responded with a step-by-step suspension of its compliance with the deal. It broke caps on the quantity of enriched uranium, then resumed enrichment at Fordow, a deeply-buried underground site ringed with anti-aircraft guns, and introduced speedier centrifuges. Iran’ s “ breakout time ” —the time it would need to make one bomb’ s-worth of highly enriched uranium—has shrunk to about a month, calculates David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, a think-tank. American officials put it at “ a few months ”, and the rollout of a mechanism to deliver it significantly longer.
What hope is there to resuscitate the deal? Iran’ s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, shows little enthusiasm for returning to the JCPOA. And even Western diplomats question whether the deal is now worth the effort. The ban it imposed on international arms sales to Iran has already expired. Some suggest creative alternatives. “ More-for-more ” would release Iran from more sanctions than the original deal in exchange for a longer-term suspension of its nuclear programme. “ Less-for-less ” would drip-feed some $ 100bn of assets frozen abroad in return for a rollback of uranium enrichment. If no agreement is reached, the world would be back at square one, with Iran increasing its uranium enrichment and the risk of violent confrontation rising.
Editor’ s note ( November 23rd 2021): A version of this article was published previously.
More from The Economist explains: What will the covid-19 pandemic look like in 2022? Why is India clinging to coal? What is the “ 3.5% rule ” beloved of climate protesters?
Published since September 1843 to take part in “ a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress. ”
Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2021. All rights reserved. | business |
Coronavirus crisis threatens to hit tourism and airport retail sales | By Globaldata Travel and Tourism
Global airport retail sales are forecast to reach $ 48.2bn in 2020, up 6.1% on 2019, but the escalation of the severity of coronavirus could now have a detrimental impact on airport passenger numbers – causing concern for airport operators and retailers.
Asia Pacific is forecast to be the fastest performing region for airport retail spend in 2020, with sales rising 8.4% to $ 21.7bn – 45.1% of the global channel. While this recent outbreak can not yet be compared to the impact of SARS, if the coronavirus continues to spread globally over the course of 2020 its impact on tourism and economies, particularly across APAC, could be severe.
Back in 2003, SARS caused tourism spend in China to collapse while visitor numbers to the likes of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong significantly dropped off causing airlines to ground planes and reduce flight schedules. While just a short term hit, the coronavirus has already dented retail and leisure spending across the Chinese New Year holiday due to consumers being encouraged, and in some cases forced, to stay in and avoid travel. In response to the crisis, retailers are considering closing stores, with the China Duty-Free Group closing its mall in Haitang Bay – impacting the APAC duty-free market in 2020. Should foreign offices extend their advice of avoiding travel to the Hubei province to other regions, then passenger numbers and airports in tourism hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Xi’ an will be negatively hit.
Despite the economic slowdown in China, the US-China trade war, the Hong Kong protests, and the cold war between Japan and South Korea already impacting tourism levels and domestic travel in APAC, the airport channel is heavily reliant on the region, especially China, as growth in the US and Europe is more challenging to achieve. APAC will be the second-fastest-growing region after MEA over the five years to 2024, but in value terms, it will make the largest gains – an increase of $ 9.8bn. Favourable demographic profiles, the performances of economies, consumer desire to travel, and continued investment in airport infrastructure will support a rise in passenger numbers ( +6.4% in 2020, pre coronavirus breakout) and airport channel growth. Therefore, unforeseen inhibitors in APAC, such as the coronavirus, can have a significant impact on the growth forecasts for the channel globally. | general |
ZTE Helps China Telecom Realize China's First 5G Remote Diagnosis of New Coronavirus Pneumonia | ZTE Corporation, a major international provider of telecommunications, enterprise and consumer technology solutions for the Mobile Internet, and Sichuan Branch of China Telecom have realized China’ s first 5G remote diagnosis of new coronavirus pneumonia backed up with the latest 5G technology. 5G, featuring high bandwidth and low latency, makes diagnosis and treatment more efficient and convenient.The 5G remote diagnosis involves West China Hospital and Chengdu Public Health Clinic Center of Sichuan University.
According to the on-site situation, ZTE has employed its CPE equipment to commission 5G services by means of outdoor 5G signals while constructing indoor coverage points. On January 25, 5G indoor base stations were built and interconnected, and the conference room for remote diagnosis and treatment in West China Hospital was first connected to the remote diagnosis and treatment system.
On January 26, ZTE completed the rapid construction, optimization, speed test, and commissioning of the 5G indoor distribution system at another core point of the remote diagnosis and treatment system. After the 5G network was commissioned, Sichuan health and health commission, West China Hospital, and Chengdu Public Health Clinic Center conducted remote video consultation.In accordance with the work arrangement of the Sichuan Health and Health Commission, the 5G remote consultation system will take West China Hospital of Sichuan University as the central node, and be the first batch to access 27 hospitals that have accepted and treated patients.
In the next step, ZTE will build China’ s first new 5G remote diagnosis coronavirus infection system covering three levels: Sichuan province, city, and county, to provide a “ one network ” for remote diagnosis in front-line hospitals that help Wuhan. In the future, ZTE will carry out video consultation with the Wuhan front-end medical rescue team through the 5G network, so that critical patients in Wuhan can also enjoy expert diagnosis and treatment services in the West China Hospital.
ZTE is a provider of advanced telecommunications systems, mobile devices and enterprise technology solutions to consumers, operators, companies and public sector customers. As a part of ZTE’ s strategy, the company is committed to providing customers with integrated end-to-end innovations to deliver excellence and value as the telecommunications and information technology sectors converge. | tech |
Freeport CEO 'looking forward ' to deals once expansion projects done | Freeport-McMoran Inc ( FCX.N), the world’ s largest publicly traded copper producer, would consider acquisitions, mergers or other deals once three ongoing expansion projects finish by 2022, Chief Executive Richard Adkerson said in an interview on Tuesday.
Demand for copper is projected to surge this decade because of the rising popularity of electric vehicles, which use twice as much copper as internal combustion engines. That, in turn, is expected to fuel an M & A wave across the sector.
Despite that, Phoenix, Arizona-based Freeport’ s shares are worth half what they were in 2010, dragged down by uncertainty over the company’ s stake in a major Indonesian mine and debt from an ill-fated oil and gas venture.
But those issues are largely behind the company, which is about to open a copper mine in the United States, is expanding Indonesia’ s Grasberg mine and has launched an analytics program to boost production in Peru.
Those projects should double the company’ s cash flow and boost the company’ s stock price, giving the company ammunition to consider deals, Adkerson told Reuters.
“ I’ m looking forward to having a new experience in my career toward accessing alternatives and deciding which way we go, ” said Adkerson, an accountant by training who became CEO in 2003.
Those alternatives could include buying part or all of another company, building new mines or other deals, he said.
“ We don’ t have a clear directive now on what that direction could be, but we will be attractively situated and will have an opportunity to add value through investments, ” said Adkerson.
According to recent news reports, Barrick Gold Corp ( ABX.TO) CEO Mark Bristow has spoken favorably of Freeport’ s assets and a potential combination.
Adkerson declined to comment. A Barrick spokeswoman declined to comment.
Adkerson, 73, said he has no plans to retire and is in good health.
“ This is not a time that I’ m thinking about walking away, ” he said.
Adkerson called the outbreak of a deadly coronavirus in China a “ real black swan event. ” The term is a reference to the book “ Black Swan, ” which looks at the potentially catastrophic effects of unpredictable events.
Copper prices CMCUc1 have dropped more than 10% this month on concerns the virus could affect the global economy. Copper prices are closely linked to global economic health because the metal is used for construction and manufacturing.
Freeport’ s stock dropped more than 9% last Thursday due in part to virus concerns even as the company posted better-than-expected quarterly results.
Its shares were 2.5% higher at $ 11.175 in afternoon trading, along with a broad rally in global equity markets as investors took a less pessimistic view of the potential economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.
Reporting by Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Marguerita Choy | business |
Wuhan people keep out: Chinese villages shun outsiders as virus spreads | In a village in Beijing’ s far northeastern Shunyi district, residents have set an informal rule: “ If you’ re here, don’ t leave. If they’ ve left, don’ t let them come back. ”
Red tape was tied across the road at the entrance to the small community Monday. Village committee members wearing face masks and high-visibility vests manned the blockade.
Since last week, a public address system had been broadcasting messages, residents told Reuters, warning people against inviting guests and urging anyone who has been to Wuhan, the epicenter of a spreading coronavirus that has killed 106 people, to register with authorities.
“ We grow our own leeks... we have a lot of frozen pork, rice and oil. There’ s no need for us to go outside, ” villager Lu Weian, who lives in a traditional village house with high walls, told Reuters by phone.
“ Every house is its own quarantine zone, ” she said.
The village, hundreds of miles from Wuhan, is one of many across China shunning outsiders amid rising panic over the virus that has infected thousands.
A decision by authorities to lock down travel in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, has spurred a counter-movement of communities closing their gates to outsiders.
Social media showed dozens of images and videos from across China of similar vigilante efforts.
Some showed villages blocking roads with vehicles, others constructing make-shift barriers out of tape and cinder-blocks.
Zhengding county in Hebei province, outside Beijing, on Monday began offering 1,000 yuan ( $ 145) to tipsters for credible information about unregistered people who may have links to Wuhan.
“ We’ ve done our work very carefully and registered everyone coming from the epidemic regions, ” said a man surnamed Ye who was manning the tip line at the county’ s Communist Party office when Reuters called on Tuesday.
“ We haven’ t got useful tips, though there are people calling offering clues. In most cases they spotted cars with Hubei plates, ” he said.
The efforts aren’ t limited to villages.
In central Beijing, some residents and authorities are tracking and registering people who have been to Wuhan.
“ It’ s our responsibility to find everyone and enforce safety... No one should be afraid to be an informant, ” said Chen Gang, a retired resident in central Dongcheng district, who is a designated community leader in his neighborhood.
On Saturday, Chen went door-to-door helping officials check whether people had recently visited Wuhan or had guests from Hubei. He said several people with Wuhan links were told to stay at home for a quarantine period.
For people from Wuhan, the stigma is causing emotional strain.
“ I think I’ m the loneliest person in the world right now, ” said 23-year-old Peking University student Carmen Wang, a Wuhan native who canceled plans to return home from Beijing when news of the virus broke.
Wang said she has been shunned by classmates, who sent messages in a class group chat warning others not to visit her. She orders out for food and watches TV alone.
“ Even if they came and ate food with me or hung out, if I even sneezed, they would accuse me... it’ s better this way, ” said Wang.
Villagers took pains to justify their exclusivity.
“ It’ s not that we are without human emotions, but lives come first, ” read a sign attached to an earth-moving machine parked across a road to block traffic in an image posted on social media.
A man who answered a call from Reuters to the phone number listed on the sign declined to give the location of the village.
“ I don’ t want to tell you because I don’ t want you coming here, ” he said.
Reporting by Cate Cadell and Sophie Yu; Editing by Tony Munroe and Nick Macfie | business |
Apple Q1 surges as iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro sales deliver, but coronavirus a wild card for Q2 | The company's outlook is strong amid iPhone 11 demand. The company's device installed base is now 1.5 billion.
Larry Dignan is the former Editor in Chief of ZDNet.
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Apple's fiscal first quarter was fueled by strong iPhone revenue due to iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro demand as well as the company's accessories unit, which includes Apple Watch and AirPods. Apple also detailed how the coronavirus outbreak in China is affecting operations.
Apple reported first-quarter earnings of $ 4.99 a share on revenue of $ 91.8 billion, up 9% a year ago. Wall Street was expecting Apple to report fiscal first-quarter revenue of $ 88.5 billion with earnings of $ 4.55 a share.
CEO Tim Cook said that it saw a strong demand for iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro as well as for wearable devices such as AirPods and Apple Watch. The company's active installed base of devices topped 1.5 billion. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the company has more than 480 million paid subscriptions on its platform and expects to pass the 500 million mark in the March quarter. Maestri said that Apple is targeting more than 600 million paid subscriptions by the end of calendar 2020.
On a conference call with analysts, Cook broke down the iPhone demand picture. In a nutshell, the lower-priced iPhone 11 is selling well.
iPhone 11 was our top-selling model every week during the December quarter, and the 3 new models were our 3 most popular iPhones. We had double-digit growth in many developed markets, including the U.S., the U.K., France and Singapore and grew double digits in emerging markets, led by strong performances in Brazil, Mainland China, India, Thailand and Turkey.
The big question is whether the results are enough to justify Apple shares and their run in recent weeks.
Apple shares have been propelled by optimism about the company's Apple Watch sales, stronger-than-expected iPhone 11 cycle, and the success of services, which drives recurring revenue. There is also optimism about the upcoming iPhone upgrade cycle powered by 5G upgrades.
As for the outlook, Apple said it will deliver the second quarter between $ 63 billion and $ 67 billion with a gross margin between 38% and 39%. Wall Street analysts were modeling second-quarter earnings of $ 2.82 a share on revenue of $ 62.45 billion. Key figures from the quarter include:
But Mac sales fell from a year ago as did iPad revenue. The long-term question is how Apple's China supply chain will be impacted by the coronavirus outbreak. Apple provided wide range with its second quarter outlook indicating some uncertainty about the coronavirus.
Cook outlined the impact of the coronavirus on Apple's supply chain and retail operations. He said: We do have some suppliers in the Wuhan area. All of these suppliers, there are alternate sources, and we're obviously working on mitigation plans to make up any expected production loss. We factored our best thinking in the guidance that we provided you. With respect to supply sources that are outside the Wuhan area, the impact is less clear at this time. The reopening of those factories after Chinese New Year has been moved from the end of this month to February 10, depending upon the supplier location. And we 've attempted to account for this delayed start-up through our larger range of outcomes. With respect to customer demand and sales, we 've currently closed 1 of our retail stores, and a number of channel partners have also closed their storefronts. Many of the stores that remain open have also reduced operating hours. We're taking additional precautions and frequently deep cleaning our stores as well as conducting temperature checks for employees. While our sales within the Wuhan area itself are small, retail traffic has also been impacted outside of this area across the country in the last few days.
Telstra fined AU $ 2.5 million in part for not making 50,000 phone numbers silent
Apple and Google have 'vice-like ' grip on how we use smartphones. Users are losing out, says competition watchdog
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Confusion and lost time: how testing woes slowed China's coronavirus response | Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.
Yang, 53, is just one of many Wuhan inhabitants finding it difficult to get tested or receive treatment for the new form of coronavirus, which authorities say has infected 2,800 people and killed at least 80 in China, a situation that may be contributing to the spread of the disease.
Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.
“ My brother and I have been queuing at the hospital every day. We go at 6 and 7 in the morning, and queue for the whole day, but we don’ t get any new answers, ” Zhang told Reuters. “ Every time the responses are the same: ‘ There’ s no bed, wait for the government to give a notice, and follow the news to see what’ s going on.’ The doctors are all very frustrated too. ”
Officially known as 2019-nCoV, the new form of coronavirus was first identified as the cause of death of a 61-year-old man in Wuhan on Jan. 10, when China shared gene information on the virus with other countries. Some, such as Japan and Thailand, started testing travelers from China for the virus within three days.
However, testing kits for the disease were not distributed to some of Wuhan’ s hospitals until about Jan. 20, an official at the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( Hubei CDC) told Reuters. Before then, samples had to be sent to a laboratory in Beijing for testing, a process that took three to five days to get results, according to Wuhan health authorities.
During that gap, hospitals in the city reduced the number of people under medical observation from 739 to just 82, according to data compiled by Reuters from Wuhan health authorities, and no new cases were reported inside China.
Despite the lack of reliable data and testing capacity in Wuhan, Chinese authorities assured citizens in the days after the virus had been identified that it was not widely transmissible. In previous weeks, it had censored negative online commentary about the situation, and arrested eight people it accused of being “ rumor spreaders. ”
“ The doctor didn’ t wear a mask, we didn’ t know how to protect ourselves... no one told us anything, ” a 45-year-old woman surnamed Chen told Reuters. Her aunt was confirmed to have the virus on Jan. 20, five days after she was hospitalized. “ I posted my aunt’ s photos on ( Chinese social media site) Weibo and the police called the hospital authorities. They told me to take it down. ”
National, regional and city health officials did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters on how the virus outbreak has been handled. National officials did say at a media briefing last week that there were some “ loopholes ” in initial treatment methods.
Wuhan’ s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, told Chinese state television on Monday he recognized that “ all parties were not satisfied with the disclosure of our information. ” But he pointed to strictures placed upon him by provincial and national leaders.
“ In local governance, after I receive information, I can only release it when I’ m authorized, ” he said. Zhou told a media briefing on Sunday that a further 1,000 people could be diagnosed with the virus in Wuhan, based on the number of patients yet to be tested.
China last week locked down the affected region in Hubei province in the biggest quarantine operation on record and is building two new hospitals to treat virus patients. President Xi Jinping has created a special committee to tackle the outbreak.
The country has been praised internationally for quickly sequencing the virus gene. However, its slow scale-up of testing has been questioned.
Once a virus has been identified, “ You need to make sure you have all the reagent ( a substance used in chemical analysis) samples and you’ ve got it all pushed out to where you want to do testing, ” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who focuses on emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness.
Although information from the region is scarce, Adalja suggested China has had problems with this stage of tackling the outbreak. “ We’ re already hearing that there are shortages of medical professionals there, that there are shortages of test kits and medicines, ” he said.
John Edmunds, a professor at the center for mathematical modeling of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said China has not communicated enough detailed data after the initial outbreak.
“ We have a very incomplete picture of what’ s going on, ” he told Reuters. “ Whether it’ s incompetence, secrecy, or deliberate, I don’ t know, but it would be very useful if we could have some basic epidemiological data. ”
The shortage of testing supplies and China’ s initial reticence have drawn criticism that the country is still learning lessons from the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) in 2002 that killed almost 800 people.
“ The improvements have been on the hard science side - figuring out the virus’ s genome, building new hospitals at a moment’ s notice - more than on the soft science side of managing information and dealing with people, ” said Mary Gallagher, a political science professor who leads the University of Michigan’ s Center for Chinese Studies.
City managers had little incentive to escalate problems to political superiors. The week in which no new virus cases were reported in Hubei coincided with preparations for the Lunar New Year and sessions of the province’ s National People’ s Congress and the Chinese People’ s Political Consultative Conference.
Seven of the largest hospitals in Wuhan are now equipped with testing kits for the virus, which in theory deliver results within a day, the Hubei CDC official said.
But four people told Reuters they were refused tests because the process involved a complex reporting system including hospital, district and city health authorities and disease control officials.
To qualify for the test, patients need to meet certain criteria, such as having symptoms of fever and pneumonia, and a surge in patients means it is “ impossible to conduct the test right away, ” an official at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Reuters.
Three hospital and local government workers, who have been briefed on how doctors are handling tests and confirming cases, told Reuters that official numbers of infections and deaths do not reflect the actual toll.
Wuhan health authorities have a limit on tests, chiefly because of the shortage of testing kits, and are screening lists of patients before deciding who gets a test, which takes several hours, one hospital worker told Reuters.
“ Some severely ill patients were left out from the final list for testing because they know they wouldn’ t be able to be treated, ” the worker told Reuters. “ The actual deaths were higher. ”
Reuters could not independently confirm the hospital worker’ s account. Hubei and Wuhan health authorities did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Zhang, whose mother is still waiting for a test, said doctors at three Wuhan hospitals told her family privately that they are almost certain she has contracted the coronavirus.
However, he said two of those hospitals told him they are not equipped with testing kits, and the other told him it has no available bed to accommodate his mother for the test.
None of those hospitals replied to Reuters requests for comment.
Sixty-nine year-old Xu Enen, who has had fever and a lung infection since Jan. 8, was rejected by six hospitals in Wuhan for testing as they said they had ran out of beds, his daughter told Reuters. Xu’ s symptoms have worsened lately, and he is starting to have breathing difficulties.
He was finally admitted on Jan. 22 to queue for the test at Hankou hospital in Wuhan after his daughter publicized his case on Weibo.
Researchers at Lancaster University estimate that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan have been identified. By Jan. 21, they estimated a total of 11,341 people had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. More than 30,000 people in Wuhan are under observation, according to the city’ s health authorities.
“ All we want is to confirm the case is the virus or not, ” said a 33-year-old Wuhan woman surnamed Liu, whose father has been on a respirator in hospital since Jan. 14 and was still untested on Monday. “ At least if it’ s confirmed we have a direction. If there’ s no direction, there’ s no hope. ”
Reporting by Yawen Chen and Cate Cadell in Beijing; Additional reporting by Kate Kelland in London; Editing by Bill Rigby | business |
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Reuters
January 28th, 2020 at 8:00 AM EST
When a huge company goes under, others feel its impact. Saga's cruise business is performing well but tour operating is proving much tougher.
Patrick Whyte
Saga Plc said on Tuesday it was on track to meet its annual profit outlook even as it flagged a one-off charge of 4 million pounds ( $ 5.26 million) related to the collapse of Thomas Cook last year.
The over-50s tourism and insurance firm, which earlier this year launched an overhaul of its mainstay insurance unit to battle margin pressures, said the insurance business was in a much more stable position than a year ago.
“ Although Saga continues to face challenging markets in insurance and travel, we have a clear focus on improving performance and cost efficiencies within the group, ” newly appointed Chief Executive Officer Euan Sutherland said.
Shares of the company were 5.3 percent higher at 43.9 pence in early trade.
During its half-year results, Saga said it expects annual underlying pretax profit between 105 million pounds and 120 million pounds.
In the backdrop of growing worries over the spread of the new coronavirus in China, which has raised concerns about travel demand, a Saga spokesperson said on Monday the company did not have any tours to China until later in the year.
The company, which owns Saga Holidays, Saga Cruises, Titan and Destinology, expects annual revenue for Saga’ s tour operations to be down 5 percent, but added that it was seeing a “ much more resilient picture ” in its escorted tours.
Saga’ s branded home and motor policies are expected to be about 3 percent lower for the year ended Jan. 31, as the insurance market remained competitive, however, customer retention of 75 percent was better than last year.
Copyright ( 2020) Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions
This article was from Reuters and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network. Please direct all licensing questions to legal @ newscred.com.
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Reuters
January 28th, 2020 at 8:00 AM EST
Tags: europe, saga, thomas cook, uk | general |
Apple posts record quarter as iPhone sales make a comeback |
Apple ( AAPL) posted record earnings for the last three months of 2019 on the back of the iPhone's resurgence. Written off as a fading giant whose best days were behind it, iPhone sales proved it still has some gas left in the tank.
With the iPhone 11, Apple returned to basics, producing its cheapest phone in years with a stellar camera and some improvements over the somewhat derided iPhone XR that preceded it. The iPhone 11 was Apple's bestselling smartphone during the last three months of 2019, CEO Tim Cook said on a conference call with investors.
That helped overall iPhone sales grow by nearly 8% to $ 56 billion in the quarter. It didn't quite hit a record ( in the three months ending in December 2017, Apple sold $ 61 billion worth of iPhones), but it was a robust turnaround for a product that was in a serious slump: IPhone sales had fallen in each of the previous four quarters.
`` In 2019, the story was really Apple's efforts to diversify its business from the iPhone, '' D.A. Davidson, senior analyst Tom Forte, told CNN Business Tuesday. `` In the December quarter and calendar 2020, it's really a story of the resurgence of the iPhone, or the iPhone exceeding expectations. ''
However, Forte cautioned that Apple could struggle to maintain its stock momentum this year. The iPhone 11, he said, `` had the lowest expectations of any iPhone ever. '' But this year, when Apple is widely anticipated to release 5G-enabled phones, expectations are much higher.
`` The additional upside in the stock is clear. The ability to execute on it, to be determined, '' Forte said.
Services: the iPhone hedge Apple didn't need last quarter
Although iPhones still make up the majority of Apple's overall revenue, massive growth in its services and wearables segments of its business also contributed to the successful quarter. Those divisions are widely heralded as the future of the company, because the cell phone market is so saturated that Apple can't expect iPhone sales growth every quarter.
Apple's services segment, which includes Apple TV+, Apple Music, iCloud and Apple Care, among other products, grew 17% to $ 12.7 billion in the quarter.
The company now has 450 million paid subscriptions across its services platforms. It increased its target for full-year paid subscription numbers to 600 million by the end of 2020, `` given the tremendous momentum we're experiencing in services, '' CFO Luca Maestri said on the call.
The company did not, however, break out subscriber numbers for Apple TV+, which launched in November. Cook did say that the service was off to `` a rousing start. ''
Airpods and the Apple Watch were hot holiday items
Sales in the wearables division, which includes Airpods and the Apple Watch, grew 37% in the quarter. Three quarters of those who bought Apple Watches during the three months did so for the first time, Cook said on the call.
`` It's still very much selling to new customers at this point, '' Cook said.
By the ( big) numbers
Overall, Apple posted record quarterly revenue of $ 91.8 billion, up 9% from the same period last year. It earned $ 22.2 billion in net income, the biggest quarterly profit for any American company in history.
Apple's stock rose as much as 2.7% in after-hours trading Tuesday, after already having closed the day up 2.8%.
A complicated story in China
The stakes were high for Apple's performance in China this quarter.
China makes up around 15% of Apple's overall revenue, but iPhone sales in the market tumbled last year.
But in the holiday quarter, Apple's sales in the region returned to growth. The iPhone, wearables and services segments all increased by double digits, Cook said Tuesday, adding that `` the iPhone 11 is doing particularly well there. ''
It would be a notable turn of events, if not for the rapidly increasing spread of coronavirus throughout China, and elsewhere around the world. Fears about the disease have forced companies operating in the country to take action.
Cook said Apple is `` working very closely with our team and our partners in the affected areas, and we have limited travel to business-critical situations as of last week. '' He added that the company has closed one store in the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, has shortened operating hours at other stores and is deep cleaning them and performing temperature checks on employees.
But the virus could take a toll on Apple's performance in China, which it acknowledged by providing a wider range than usual for its revenue projections for the current quarter. Apple also has manufacturing centers in Wuhan and elsewhere in China.
`` In and of itself the return to growth in China is very impressive, '' Forte said. `` Were it not for the coronavirus, the sustainability of [ its performance in China ] would not be called into question... It's an important risk that investors need to monitor. '' | business |
There's been a run of surgical masks in the US because of the coronavirus scare. You don't need them, physicians say | Half a world way in the US, major retailers are selling out of basic surgical masks amid panic from consumers. ( So far, there have been five confirmed cases of coronavirus here.)
Surgical masks are a basic defense against some viruses, and they may be helpful in communities where health officials suspect viruses are circulating widely.
But in the US, there's no need to wear surgical masks -- or the N95 respirators physicians wear when treating viruses -- says infectious disease expert Dr. Charles Chiu.
There's no evidence of sustained novel coronavirus transmission in the US like there is in China, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not recommended Americans wear masks in public.
`` Right now, there's no evidence that [ wearing face masks ] is going to help prevent that infection, '' Chiu, a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told CNN. `` I would not recommend that someone in the US who does not have direct exposure, did not recently travel to China... or in general that you go buy a face mask. ''
Physicians wear masks, but the US public shouldn't
Americans are scooping up two kinds of masks
Surgical masks
N95 respirators
The CDC doesn't recommend public citizens wear either of them.
Surgical masks: While they do protect from large respiratory droplets ( a spray from a sneeze or mucus from a cough), they don't prevent against airborne droplets. Surgical masks aren't considered respiratory protection by the CDC because they don't filter smaller particles, and therefore isn't effective in totally preventing coronavirus transmission.
`` Wearing a surgical mask helps you prevent sharing your germs if you're sick, '' Saskia Popescu, a hospital epidemiologist and infection prevention expert, told CNN. `` Surgical masks do not seal around the face, so while they offer some protection, it's the N95 mask that offers the most protection. ''
N95 respirators: Should you wear an N95 respirator depends on whether you're a physician involved in a particular task.
The CDC does recommend that healthcare providers wear N95 respirators, face masks that filter at least 95% of airborne particles, if they treat a patient infected with the novel coronavirus.
In the case of SARS, another type of coronavirus, a large amount of infections originated in hospitals among healthcare workers treating infected people, Chiu said. So now, doctors follow the same strict precautions and wear gowns, gloves, N95 respirators and goggles to reduce their likelihood of infection.
So unless you're treating a patient with the coronavirus, the N95 respirator isn't necessary, he said.
Another reason not to wear an N95 mask: Physicians are also regularly fitted for the N95 respirators, and there's a proper way to wear them to ensure there's no open space and the mask fits snugly against the face. People with no medical training might wear it incorrectly, Popescu said.
Plus, Chiu said, N95 respirators are `` quite uncomfortable '' to wear for long periods of time -- and taking it off negates the effects of wearing it.
Masks could give wearers a false sense of security
In China's Heibo Province where the coronavirus is thought to be actively spreading, surgical masks aren't a fail-safe, but they're `` better than nothing, '' Popescu said.
But in the US, Chiu said, wearing a mask could give wearers a `` false sense of security, '' he said: If concerned people wear a surgical mask, usually made out of thin fabric or paper, they may not continually wash their hands or fear contact with infected people.
`` That's really not the nature of transmission, '' he said. `` That's thought to be contact transmission -- touching infected surfaces, touching the eyes and nose. ''
Chiu and the CDC recommend what he calls `` common-sense measures '': Avoid contact with ill people, stay home from work when sick, thoroughly wash hands with soap.
The CDC's recommendations for response in the US could change as the situation does. But at this point, Americans don't need to wear masks in public.
`` We should certainly continue to monitor the situation closely, but right now is not the time to panic, '' he said. | business |
Starbucks has closed more than half of its Chinese stores because of coronavirus | The company said Tuesday it is continuing to `` monitor and modify the operating hours of all of our stores in the market, '' in light of the outbreak. `` This is expected to be temporary, '' Starbucks added.
Over the weekend, the company said that it was closing shops and suspending delivery services in the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and the wider Hubei Province.
John Culver, the company's international president, said that the `` situation accelerated '' over the past few weeks, adding that Starbucks is evaluating closures `` each and every day. '' Stores that are open still offer delivery but may have a more limited menu, based on supply chain constraints, and different hours, he said.
The Wuhan Coronavirus has so far killed more than 100 people and infected thousands. It has reached more than 17 countries.
CEO Kevin Johnson promised transparency into the company's response to the `` extraordinary circumstances, '' in a statement Tuesday.
`` We remain optimistic and committed to the long-term opportunity in China, '' he added.
Johnson noted in a call with investors that Starbucks is prioritizing the health of customers and employees and working with officials to help contain the virus.
An important market
China is one of Starbucks ( SBUX) ' leading growth markets, along with the United States. In the first quarter, sales at Chinese stores open at least 13 months grew 3%. McDonald's has been expanding rapidly in the country, opening about 600 stores last year. Digital sales grew in China as well, jumping to 15% of total revenue — up from 10% the past quarter. About 9% came from delivery, and 6% from pickup and mobile orders.
It's not clear how the closures will affect business, the company said. China accounted for 10% of global revenues in the quarter. Still, Starbucks does expect to take a hit in the second quarter and fiscal year 2020, and plans to update its guidance once it can better evaluate the impact. The company's stock dipped slightly after the bell Tuesday.
Starbucks said that prior to the closures, it was expecting to raise its financial forecast for the year because of its strong first-quarter results. Sales at US stores open at least a year grew 6% during that period.
Global companies have been responding to the outbreak with store closures and increased safety measures.
McDonald's ( MCD) said on Friday that it had closed locations in five cities to and from which the Chinese government restricted travel. McDonald's said open stores were following strict hygiene practices.
KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants also closed in the city of Wuhan. And Disney ( DIS) has closed its parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
New menu items
To help bring in US customers, Starbucks is leaning into plant-based dairy and protein alternatives.
Earlier this month, Starbucks added an oat milk latte to the menu in about 1,300 locations in the Midwest. Roz Brewer, Starbucks ' chief operating officer, said that more alternative dairy drinks are coming.
And the chain is introducing a breakfast sandwich made with a plant-based patty in the United States and Canada this year, she added.
— CNN Business ' Sherisse Pham contributed to this report. | business |
Hong Kong suspends some rail, ferry links with China mainland to curb virus spread | Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced on Tuesday a suspension of high-speed rail and ferry links with mainland China as the global financial hub scrambles along with many countries to limit the spread of a new coronavirus.
More than 100 people have died from the flu-like virus, which emerged in China’ s central city of Wuhan in December. The number of confirmed cases was at 4,515 by Monday, up from 2,835 the previous day, health authorities said.
High-Speed Rail and Intercity Through Train services will be suspended from midnight on Thursday, Lam said, and the number of flights to mainland China will be halved and personal travel permits for mainland Chinese to the city suspended.
“ I thank the central government for supporting our work in this aspect ( suspending cross-border transport) and the relevant mainland ministries and commissions for co-operating with us, ” Lam told a news conference.
Speaking just days after she announced a virus emergency, Lam, wearing a green mask, also urged Hong Kong residents to return from the mainland as soon as possible and quarantine themselves at home for 14 days.
With Hong Kong financial markets set to reopen on Wednesday after the Lunar New Year holiday, Lam was flanked at the news conference by the city’ s health secretary, Sophia Chan, and its commerce secretary, Edward Yau, both also wearing masks.
Chan said the former British colony had eight confirmed infections, while 100 patients were in quarantine.
The coronavirus presents a perfect storm for embattled Lam, who is grappling with more than seven months of anti-government protests that have seen more than 7,000 people arrested.
The judiciary announced on Tuesday that all court hearings scheduled from Wednesday to Feb. 2 would be adjourned, heaping more pressure on the already stretched judicial system.
Beijing-backed Lam defended her decision not to close the entire border over the coronavirus threat, saying such a move would prevent the return home of Hong Kong people, some of whom commute daily.
A union of hospital workers, the Hospital Authority Employees Alliance, earlier gave the government until Tuesday to heed its demands, which include barring entry from mainland China, or it would go on strike.
It is still too early to know what the death rate of coronavirus will be, since there are likely to be many cases of milder disease going undetected.
Like other respiratory infections, it spreads between people in droplets from coughs and sneezes.
The coronavirus has rattled global markets and unnerved residents of Hong Kong, still haunted by memories of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) that killed nearly 300 people in the city in 2003.
Reporting by Jessie Pang and Felix Tam; Writing by Anne Marie Roantree; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Mark Heinrich | business |
UPDATE 2-Hong Kong suspends some rail, ferry links with China mainland to curb virus spread | ( Adds courts adjourned, details)
By Jessie Pang and Felix Tam
HONG KONG, Jan 28 ( Reuters) - Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced on Tuesday a suspension of high-speed rail and ferry links with mainland China as the global financial hub scrambles along with many countries to limit the spread of a new coronavirus.
More than 100 people have died from the flu-like virus, which emerged in China’ s central city of Wuhan in December. The number of confirmed cases was at 4,515 by Monday, up from 2,835 the previous day, health authorities said.
High-Speed Rail and Intercity Through Train services will be suspended from midnight on Thursday, Lam said, and the number of flights to mainland China will be halved and personal travel permits for mainland Chinese to the city suspended.
“ I thank the central government for supporting our work in this aspect ( suspending cross-border transport) and the relevant mainland ministries and commissions for co-operating with us, ” Lam told a news conference.
Speaking just days after she announced a virus emergency, Lam, wearing a green mask, also urged Hong Kong residents to return from the mainland as soon as possible and quarantine themselves at home for 14 days.
With Hong Kong financial markets set to reopen on Wednesday after the Lunar New Year holiday, Lam was flanked at the news conference by the city’ s health secretary, Sophia Chan, and its commerce secretary, Edward Yau, both also wearing masks.
Chan said the former British colony had eight confirmed infections, while 100 patients were in quarantine.
The coronavirus presents a perfect storm for embattled Lam, who is grappling with more than seven months of anti-government protests that have seen more than 7,000 people arrested.
The judiciary announced on Tuesday that all court hearings scheduled from Wednesday to Feb. 2 would be adjourned, heaping more pressure on the already stretched judicial system.
Beijing-backed Lam defended her decision not to close the entire border over the coronavirus threat, saying such a move would prevent the return home of Hong Kong people, some of whom commute daily.
A union of hospital workers, the Hospital Authority Employees Alliance, earlier gave the government until Tuesday to heed its demands, which include barring entry from mainland China, or it would go on strike.
It is still too early to know what the death rate of coronavirus will be, since there are likely to be many cases of milder disease going undetected.
Like other respiratory infections, it spreads between people in droplets from coughs and sneezes.
The coronavirus has rattled global markets and unnerved residents of Hong Kong, still haunted by memories of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) that killed nearly 300 people in the city in 2003. ( Reporting by Jessie Pang and Felix Tam; Writing by Anne Marie Roantree; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Mark Heinrich) | business |
FrieslandCampina ditching plastic straws | Or wait...
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28-Jan-2020 - Last updated on 28-Jan-2020 at 09:33 GMT
Related tags: Frieslandcampina function sanitize gpt value2 ( gptValue) { var vOut= '' ''; var aTags = gptValue.split ( ', '); var reg = new RegExp ( '\\W+ ', `` g ''); for ( var i=0; i < aTags.length; i++) { vOut += aTags [ i ].trim ().replace ( reg, '- ').substring ( 0,40); if ( i! = ( aTags.length-1)) vOut += ', '; } vOut = vOut.toLowerCase (); return vOut; } $ ( document).ready ( function () { dataLayerNews = { }; dataLayerNews.related tags = sanitize gpt value2 ( `` Frieslandcampina ''); dataLayer.push ( dataLayerNews); });
The Dutch dairy cooperative said more than 100m plastic straws will be replaced by a more sustainable, paper variant by 2021.
FrieslandCampina said its action comes ahead of an EU ban on disposable plastic straws. Following the recent introduction of a recyclable cheese packaging, this is a next step towards less plastic.
The straws introduced by FrieslandCampina are made of certified paper.
Patrick van Baal, global director packaging development at FrieslandCampina, said, “ It is not easy to develop a strong paper straw that is flexible and hygienic and that does not get soft too quickly while drinking. Besides, the straw must be degradable in case it accidentally ends up in the environment. After a lot of testing, we have succeeded in developing a straw that meets all these requirements. ”
Straws on small packages of its own brands in the EU will be the first to be replaced. These include the brands Chocomel, Fristi, Campina and Optimel in the Netherlands; Cécémel, Joyvalle and Fristi in Belgium; Pöttyös in Hungary, and Yazoo in the UK.
Outside Europe, FrieslandCampina will also start using paper straws with the Dutch Lady brand in Hong Kong. | general |
U.S. considering China travel curb options amid virus outbreak: health officials | The United States is considering new steps to counter a coronavirus outbreak that has killed over 100 people in China and nothing is off the table in terms of possible travel restrictions for China, the U.S. health secretary said on Tuesday.
The United States, which so far has five confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, has urged Americans to reconsider or postpone travel plans to China because of the outbreak. It also warned specifically against travel to the Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak in China with thousands of cases. [ nL4N29V0FY ]
Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said during a news conference that he had offered to send a team of U.S. infectious disease experts to China to assist with its public health efforts and that more cooperation and transparency would help make the response more effective.
“ Beyond that, all options for dealing with infectious disease spread have to be on the table, including travel restrictions, ” he said.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) said on Tuesday that China has agreed it can send international experts “ as soon as possible. ” It was not clear when a WHO delegation would head to China and what countries would participate in the mission.
The United States is seeking on-the-ground access to study health data that might confirm if the virus can spread before people have symptoms such as a fever, and to help with China’ s disease containment measures, Azar and other U.S. health officials said during the news conference.
Despite its fast spread, Azar said risks of the disease are unclear as the United States is still learning about its severity, incubation period and whether there is a real danger of it being transmitted by people without symptoms.
There was no evidence of person-to-person transmission in the United States, Azar said, adding that it was not necessary for Americans to wear surgical masks in public places.
He did not say what specific travel restrictions are being considered. The United States is expanding screenings of travelers from China and has centers monitoring their health at 20 airports, up from five.
The novel coronavirus has killed 106 people, spread across the world and rattled financial markets. The number of confirmed cases in China surged to 4,515 as of Monday, according to the Chinese government.
Reporting by Manas Mishra in Bengaluru and Caroline Humer in New York; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Bill Berkrot | business |
Finland's Kone talks up potential of Thyssenkrupp combination | Finland’ s Kone ( KNEBV.HE), one of the contenders to buy the elevator business of its German rival Thyssenkrupp ( TKAG.DE), is very interested in the unit and sees significant “ scale advantages, ” its CEO said on Tuesday.
Chief Executive Henrik Ehrnrooth was speaking after the company revealed quarterly profit that beat expectations, but a weaker sales outlook for 2020 pushed its share price briefly to an eight-week low.
Kone, which is working with private equity firm CVC [ CVC.UL ] was due to make a bid on Jan. 27 for Thyssenkrupp’ s elevator business, valued at around 15 billion euros ( $ 16.64 billion).
Ehrntooth declined to say whether Kone had bid, but said he believed Kone would be “ a good owner ” and Kone would not be interested in just a minority stake.
“ The joined companies would have very significant scale advantages, ” he said.
Kone forecast 2020 sales growth of 0–6% at comparable exchange rates, down from 10% growth the firm reached in 2019.
Analysts surveyed by Kone had forecast average sales growth of 5% in 2020 and estimates had ranged from 3% to 7.6% growth.
Ehrnrooth said there were fewer orders for this year compared with 2019 and the outbreak in China of the newly-identified coronavirus added uncertainty.
Ehrnrooth said Kone’ s two factories in China would remain closed for at least an additional week because of the virus.
“ This will affect our first quarter and we don’ t know when our clients’ construction sites will be reopened, ” he said.Kone reported a 15% rise in fourth-quarter adjusted operating profit to 367.5 million euros ( $ 407.7 million), above the 363.3 million expected by 21 analysts in a poll provided by the company. The company’ s board proposed a dividend of 1.70 euros per class B share for 2019. Shares in Kone dropped almost 4% on the results report but later recovered to close 0.2% lower at 58.02 euros.
Reporting by Anne Kauranen and Tarmo Virki; Editing by Barbara Lewis | business |
3M forecasts 2020 profit below estimates on weak China demand | U.S. industrial giant 3M Co ( MMM.N) forecast 2020 profit below expectations after narrowly missing quarterly revenue estimates on Tuesday as weak demand from China dents overall growth.
Shares of the company, which draws a third of its revenue from Asia, fell 4.2% and were the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.DJI in morning trading.
Sales in Asia-Pacific region, its largest market outside the United States, fell for the fifth straight quarter, weighed by softness in China’ s automotive and electronics sectors, a reason that had forced 3M to cut jobs and production last year.
The company said it would cut 1,500 jobs as it continues to restructure its businesses and reduce costs.
China, the world’ s second largest economy, grew at its slowest pace in almost three decades in 2019 amid a trade war that hit factory production, while auto sales slumped for the 18th straight month.
“ We were looking at a sluggish start to China in first quarter... based on automotive, and the build rate’ s expected to be down mid-single digits and maybe even high single digits, ” Chief Executive Officer Michael Roman said in an post earnings call.
Executives, however, said the company was ramping up production of its respiratory protection products to match global demand arising from coronavirus outbreak in China.
Asia-Pacific sales were down 1.7%, while Europe, Middle East and Africa reported a decline of 2%. Sales in the United States rose 7.4%.
“ We expect investors to generally be disappointed with the print, guidance and the new PFAS-related charges, while rapidly advancing Coronavirus concerns ultimately could pull the rug out from under the Asia recovery story, ” Gordon Haskett analyst John Inch said.
3M recorded a $ 214 million writedown for litigation related to PFAS chemicals.
Sales at its healthcare unit, which accounted for 25% to total revenue, rose about 25.4% on strength in international markets.
3M said it expects 2020 earnings per share to be between $ 9.30 and $ 9.75, the midpoint of which was below analysts’ average estimate of $ 9.61 per share.
Net income attributable to 3M fell 28% to $ 969 million, largely due to restructuring and litigation charges.
On an adjusted basis, it earned $ 2.15 per share, beating expectations of $ 2.10, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Net sales fell 2.1% to $ 8.11 billion and missed expectations of $ 8.12 billion.
( This story corrects paragraph 12 to say the midpoint of 2020 earnings forecast was below Wall Street estimates, not above)
Reporting by Rachit Vats in Bengaluru; Editing by Sweta Singh and Arun Koyyur | business |
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV | Objectives. -- To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV). Methods. -- Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ( SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before January 25, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome. Results The basic reproduction number falls between 2.8 to 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV infected cases from People's Daily in China, and falls between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from colleagues. Conclusions. -- The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is closed to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate-high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to suppress the further transmissions. Notes Added. -- Using a newly reported epidemiological determinants for early 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is in the range [ 2.2,3.0 ]. | science |
Four co-workers in Germany contract coronavirus after Chinese colleague visits | Four people who work at the same company in southern Germany have been infected with the coronavirus, and one of them contracted it from a colleague visiting their workplace in China, officials said on Tuesday.
The cases raise concerns about the spread of the flu-like virus that broke out in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year and has killed 106 people and infected more than 2,800 people. It spreads in droplets from coughs and sneezes and has an incubation period of up to 14 days.
In one of the first cases of person-to-person transmission outside China, a 33-year-old man apparently contracted the virus on Jan. 21 during a training session with a Chinese colleague, the ministry said. The three additional patients were being monitored in isolation at a clinic in Munich.
“ A total of around 40 employees at the company have been identified as potential close contacts. As a precaution, the people concerned are to be tested on Wednesday, ” Bavaria’ s Health Minister Melanie Huml said in a statement.
German car parts supplier Webasto [ WEBA.UL ] earlier on Tuesday said an employee at its headquarters in Stockdorf, Bavaria, had become infected following the visit of an employee from China.
A day earlier it said an employee from Shanghai tested positive for the virus upon returning to China.
Confirmation of any sustained human-to-human spread of the virus outside of China, as well as any documented deaths, would bolster the case for reconvening the World Health Organisation’ s Emergency Committee to consider again whether to declare a public health emergency of international concern.
The independent panel last week twice declined to declare an international emergency.
Outside of China there have now been 45 confirmed cases in 13 countries, with no deaths so far, the WHO’ s spokesman Christian Lindmeier told a briefing in Geneva on Tuesday.
The WHO said a case in Vietnam involved human-to-human transmission outside China and a Japanese official has said there was a suspected case of human-to-human transmission there too.
Andreas Zapf, president of Bavaria’ s office for health and food safety, said on Tuesday the first person infected was 33 years old, lived in the district of Landsberg about 50 kilometres ( 31 miles) west of Munich and had come into contact with a Chinese lady on Jan. 21.
Zapf said the Chinese woman was from Shanghai but her parents, who are from the Wuhan region, had visited her a few days earlier.
He added that she had arrived in Germany on Jan. 19, appearing not to have any symptoms, but began to feel ill on her flight home on Jan. 23. She sought medical treatment after landing and tested positive for coronavirus.
When that information was relayed back to the German company, a male employee said he felt like he had flu over the weekend and was on Monday advised to get medical treatment.
The head doctor at the clinic where the man is being treated told a news conference the patient was awake and responsive and he did not think the man’ s life was at risk.
Health Minister Jens Spahn said the risk to people’ s health in Germany from the coronavirus remained low.
Reporting by Michelle Martin in Berlin; Additional reporting by Madeline Chambers in Berlin, Alexander Huebner in Munich, Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru and Kenneth Maxwell in Tokyo; Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Marguerita Choy | business |
Introducing Cycle Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
To ease the pain associated with meeting compliance targets, global institutions are exploring ways to become more efficient by integrating regulatory and business initiatives.
Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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In this chapter, we show how a systematic model can be built by unearthing inefficiencies using cycle analysis, blending in Monte Carlo methods, to simulate the expected values of a trading strategy we wish to systematise. Duality exists when there is confirmation of two different regimes, and it is often evidenced by the display of heavy-tailed price behaviour at times, followed by periods of sustained lower volatility ( Karakatsani and Bunn, 2010; Bessec and Bouabdallah, 2005). Quantitatively, heavy-tailed behaviour is associated with a price distribution that displays a higher probability of significantly higher ( or lower) results when these are compared to a normal distribution.
In the following sections, we will describe a specific example involving short-term German electricity prices introducing the necessary market background and mathematical concepts as we go along. We will illustrate the process with an example concerning the duality of volatility regimes in short-term electricity markets against a backdrop of growing integration of renewables generation.
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Asian Destinations Reel From China’ s Outbound Travel Ban | Get exclusive stories and unlimited access to Skift.com news
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Raini Hamdi, Skift
January 28th, 2020 at 5:45 AM EST
For a string of Asian destinations, China is by far the number one market, so the outbound travel ban that became effective Monday there has shaken tourism businesses even though they know it is for the good.
Raini Hamdi
A huge dependence on Chinese tourists sees many Asian countries reeling from China’ s move to cancel outbound group trips indefinitely, as part of measures to control the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
Among them are Thailand and Japan. The Tourism Council of Thailand has estimated losses of at least $ 1.6 billion ( 50 billion baht) as a result of the lockdown, based on an average expenditure of $ 1,624 ( 50,000 baht) per Chinese tourist visiting the kingdom. China is Thailand’ s number one market, generating nearly 30 percent of all arrivals. In 2019 this totaled to an astounding 11 million Chinese tourists, more than the 10.6 million Thailand received from all neighboring Southeast Asian countries combined.
Over in Japan, whose popularity with Chinese travelers grew at the expense of Thailand following the Phuket fatal boat accident involving Chinese tourists in July 2018, losses of $ 23 billion ( 2.48 trillion yen) are anticipated if the Wuhan virus causes a steep decline in visitors for the full year, according to a Nikkei Asian Review report.
Overnight, on Monday, the tap of Chinese tourists was turned off, leaving travel agencies and hotels with the task of ensuring that the health of guests already in-destination and the thousands of staff serving them is sound. Another priority is finding alternative sources of arrivals — at a time when travelers are already starting to mull if it’ s best to avoid the region altogether.
Worries of keeping the business afloat have also surfaced, particularly for small and medium-size enterprises, for whom the Lunar New Year holiday period is a huge income stream that can make or break the financial year’ s bottomline.
“ The only measures to take right now is to save costs and make sure you have a healthy cashflow, ” said Laurent Kuenzle, CEO of Asian Trails Group, based in Bangkok.
Executives, too, are making a point to stay on top of developments. “ We are monitoring the situation closely as the health and safety of all guests and team members is paramount, ” said Dillip Rajakarier, CEO of Minor Hotels. “ All of our hotels are working closely with local health authorities to ensure that we are vigilant and fully prepared to take additional preventive measures should circumstances indicate. ”
The China ban on group travel will clearly have an important negative impact on Southeast Asia’ s tourism industry, according to tour operators interviewed, although at this point they couldn’ t quantify the extent of the damage.
“ It depends on how long it will take until the situation is under control and the virus stops spreading. I also believe that the Chinese FIT [ free independent travel ] market will be affected, probably to a lesser extent, ” Kuenzle said.
China is expected to release the number of domestic and international trips and spending by its citizens over the Lunar New Year holiday on Thursday. “ After the festivities, we can see clearer the effects, ” said Stephan Roemer, CEO, of Diethelm Travel Group, Thailand.
While China outbound travel damage to the Southeast Asia tourism industry isn’ t yet quantifiable, inbound travel to China has been affected to “ a massive extent, with virtually no one wanting to travel to anywhere in China for the time being, ” said Kuenzle. Asian Trails Group and Diethelm Travel Group are recommending that their clients, who are largely Europeans, Russians and Asians, postpone their bookings to China in February to later in the year.
Said Roemer: “ Hotel gyms [ there ] are closed and there are severe restrictions in transportation. The closures are implemented until February 9 and updates will be given if an extension will be necessary. Under these circumstances it is recommendable to postpone any trips to China during February until the situation is clear or under control. ”
As for inbound into southeast Asia from long-haul markets, at present there are only “ a few ” cancellations, according to Asian Trails’ Kuenzle. “ Everyone is staying put to see how the situation develops. As such there is no reason to cancel travel to anywhere in Southeast Asia at this stage. We follow the recommendations of WHO [ World Health Organization ] and travel advisories of governments, none of which have issued alerts to avoid Southeast Asia. All travel advisories concentrate on advice to travelers to Hubei province and Wuhan [ capital of Hubei ], ” said Kuenzle.
That said, he worries that forward bookings for Southeast Asia from the long-haul markets may slow down if visitors perceive the region as being unsafe and/or unattractive to visit. Singapore has its fifth confirmed case of Wuhan virus as of Tuesday. As of Monday in the rest of ASEAN were two confirmed cases in Vietnam, four in Malaysia, and five in Thailand, according to the World Health Organization. In the rest of Asia, there were four each in Japan, South Korea, Australia and one in Nepal.
But with the virus having gone beyond China and Asia to France, the U.S., Canada and the latest, Germany, the worst-case scenario is if it becomes an epidemic, which will guarantee a stoppage of travel altogether. Depressingly, the World Health Organization on Monday admitted an error in its initial judgment that the global risk was “ moderate. ” In a situation report on Sunday, it said the risk was “ very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level. ”
The only silver lining is the organization stopped short of declaring the coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern, reserved for the worst outbreaks that would trigger a more concerted global action.
As of Monday, 2,798 cases were confirmed globally, the majority ( 2,741) in China, according to the World Health Organization. Another 5,794 were suspected cases within China. Eighty people have died, but none outside China.
Minor’ s Rajakarier keeps a positive outlook. “ Here in Asia, we have seen our fair share of economic challenges, political difficulties, epidemics and natural disasters, so we must always be prepared to ‘ expect the unexpected’. I firmly believe that as a company we must ensure that we have the capability to react quickly to market changes in order to grow and evolve our business as required. Of course China represents an important market for Minor Hotels, but we also maintain a strategy of ensuring a wide range of source markets across the globe so that we are not reliant on one particular market or segment.
“ In addition, over the last number of years Minor Hotels has pursued a market diversification strategy to ensure a balanced portfolio of properties across Asia-Pacific, the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas, which helps to mitigate and challenges that we face in one region or another. ”
Likewise, Roemer hopes for the best. “ Outbound business from China is very short-term driven. We notice short-term cancellations for February. As fast as the China business can come to a halt, as fast it can open for the masses again. It is definitely very unpredictable, ” he said.
“ The Coronavirus is not more dangerous than any other flu. Its death toll is not higher. Despite increasing numbers it does not [ yet ] spread as pandemic. According to the German task force, Infectology, the risk of an infection is minimal. In Europe, the latest newspaper reports tend to say it is not as dramatic as it was initially reported. ”
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Raini Hamdi, Skift
January 28th, 2020 at 5:45 AM EST
Tags: china, coronavirus, southeast asia, travel ban, world health organization
Photo credit: Airport staff don face masks at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi. Xinyi Liang-Pholsena / Skift
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 25/month) | general |
Neuberger Berman gets its Sherlock on | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
To ease the pain associated with meeting compliance targets, global institutions are exploring ways to become more efficient by integrating regulatory and business initiatives.
Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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Edited by Bill Coen and D. R. Maurice
Neuberger Berman is exploring new ground with a novel hybrid quant-cum-detective – complete with his own team and proprietary methods – to detect unwanted risks lurking in its portfolios.
Maarten Nederlof’ s remit with Neuberger is to help the $ 339 billion asset manager and its clients achieve a better understanding of alpha, traditional premia and alternative premia in their investments.
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Apple is limiting China travel and has closed one retail store due to coronavirus outbreak | Apple CEO Tim Cook said on Tuesday that the company began limiting employee travel to China last week amid the coronavirus outbreak, and that Apple has closed one store in mainland China and reduced operating hours for other retail locations.
The announcement is yet more evidence that the virus is affecting the tech industry’ s presence in one of its most vital markets, both for sales and manufacturing operations. Numerous other tech companies, including Facebook and LG, are also restricting employee travel to only business critical operations.
Foxconn, one of Apple’ s lead supplier, said on Tuesday it did not expect the coronavirus to affect its manufacturing timelines. Yet it was not clear at the time whether Apple had been experiencing any retail slowdowns in the country due to the outbreak or if it planned on adjusting its manufacturing plans separately.
Cook made the announcement on a call with investors after Apple’ s quarterly earnings release, saying, “ We have closed one of our retail stores and a number of channel partners have also closed their storefronts. ” Apple says sales in the area around the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus outbreak is said to have originated, are low. But it also said that its retail traffic across the country has been negatively affected due to the situation.
Part of the reason for that is that the Chinese government has extended the Lunar New Year holiday, encouraging people to stay home and avoid unintentionally spreading or contracting the virus. Cook said Apple has already accounted for the delay in reopening its production facilities due to the holiday extension. The company’ s revenue projections for the upcoming quarter should reflect that, he added.
Additionally, Apple is providing care kits to employees in the Wuhan area, regularly taking the temperature of employees to check for fever and flu-like symptoms indicative of the virus, and aggressively cleaning retail stores and offices.
Related | tech |
Apple reports record profits amid concerns over economic impact of coronavirus | Sales of the iPhone 11 propelled Apple to all-time record revenues and profits for the final three months of 2019, a strong performance that comes amid concerns over the impact of the coronavirus on the Chinese economy.
Apple’ s $ 91.8bn in quarterly revenue topped analyst expectations thanks to $ 56bn in iPhone sales. The strong performance marks a rebound for the company, which suffered a rare setback in holiday sales one year ago.
On a call with investors, the chief executive, Tim Cook, faced questions over Apple’ s reliance on China, as that country is rocked by the outbreak of the coronavirus. China is both a market for Apple products and a critical part of its supply chain.
“ We’ re closely following the development of the coronavirus, ” Cook said. Apple said it had set a wider than normal guidance range for the next quarter, of $ 63bn to $ 67bn, due to what Cook deemed “ greater uncertainty ” related to the outbreak.
The company has also restricted employee travel to “ business critical ”, closed one retail store in China, and restricted hours in other stores in order to institute additional precautions, such as deep cleaning and temperature checks for staff.
Cook said that Apple is working on mitigation plans to make up for some suppliers that are based in the Wuhan area, where the outbreak is centered. It will also have to deal with delays in production from suppliers in the rest of China, which will return from the Lunar New Year holiday later than expected due to the outbreak.
Tuesday’ s results cover Apple’ s first full quarter of iPhone 11 sales, as well as the key holiday shopping season.
Apple has worked over the past year to diversify its revenues and avoid overreliance on the iPhone, but the device remains the foundation of the company’ s business, accounting for 60% of revenues.
Earnings per share of $ 4.99 and net income of $ 22.3bn also marked all-time records for the company. The stock price jumped 3% in after-hours trading in response to the strong showing.
Among the sectors that Apple is hoping to expand is subscription services. The company’ s new streaming service, which it hopes will rival Netflix and Amazon Prime, launched in November. Cook said the service was “ off to a rousing start ” on a conference call with investors, but did not disclose any specific subscription numbers for the nascent product. Instead, he highlighted award nominations garnered by actors on some of the channel’ s shows.
The company recorded 17% growth in revenue from services, to $ 12.7bn, slightly below analyst expectations.
“ This miss could be attributed to the competition from Disney+, which launched at roughly the same time, ” said the eMarketer principal analyst Yoram Wurmser.
Wearables have also been an important driver of sales for the company. Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research estimates that Apple sold $ 6bn worth of the wireless earbuds AirPods in 2019, and projected that number to double in 2020.
Revenues for wearables, home and accessories products grew 37%, to $ 10bn.
“ This product category is now the size of a Fortune 150 company, ” Cook said.
Apple’ s stock price had an extraordinary year, more than doubling since this time in 2019. That is despite its complicated relationship with the Chinese market in recent years. An economic slowdown dampened demand – forcing the company to issue a profits warning in January 2019 that shocked investors and sent its stock price tumbling. The company has also had to navigate the trade dispute between the US and China, and its reputation suffered in October 2019 when it removed a mapping app that was used by protesters in Hong Kong. | general |
Canada's Chinese community faces racist abuse in wake of coronavirus | When Toronto resident Terri Chu tweeted that she and other Chinese mothers feared the “ inevitable wave of racism ” that would accompany the spread of coronavirus around the world, she didn’ t realize how visceral the reactions would be.
“ My Twitter has just exploded with vitriol since this morning, ” she said on Tuesday. “ But it’ s just par for the course, growing up as a minority when you’ re not part of a dominant class. ”
Canada has so far seen three confirmed cases of the virus, which originated in China, but members of the country’ s Chinese community have already become the target of racism.
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals.
The virus can cause pneumonia-like symptoms. Those who have fallen ill are reported to suffer coughs, fever and breathing difficulties.
In the UK, the National Heath Service has defined the symptoms as:
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 31 March, more than 780,000 people have been infected in more than 170 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 37,800 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 11,500 fatalities, and there have been over 7,700 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 164,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 166,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
The country saw a similar wave of xenophobia during 2003 Sars outbreak, which also started in China.
During that panic, many Chinese-run businesses in Canada took steep losses as fear overrode public health advice: Toronto lost an estimated C $ 1bn as residents and tourists avoided the city, especially areas with a high concentration of Chinese businesses.
The irrational public worry that paralyzed much of the city seems to be returning, said Amy Go, the interim president of the Chinese Canadian National Council for Social Justice.
“ I was hopeful it wasn’ t going to be like 2003. But it’ s is. It’ s happening now and it’ s just going to be amplified [ by social media ]. ”
When a popular Toronto blog, reviewed a new Chinese restaurant on Instagram on Monday, the post quickly received a torrent of racist comments.
And nearly 9,000 parents in the York school district – an area north of Toronto – signed a petition demanding students who had traveled to China in the last 17 days be prevented from attending school.
“ This has to stop. Stop eating wild animals and then infecting everyone around you, ” wrote one petition signer. “ Stop the spread and quarantine yourselves or go back. ”
On Monday, the board – which represents 208 schools – condemned the petition amid fears students will be targeted based on their ethnicity.
“ We are aware of an escalated level of concern and anxiety among families of Chinese heritage, ” wrote York board chair Juanita Nathan and education director Louise Sirisko. “ Individuals who make assumptions, even with positive intentions of safety, about the risk of others, request or demand quarantine can be seen as demonstrating bias and racism. ”
Chu said fears about the coronavirus were disproportionate.
“ Air pollution and the proliferation of SUVs are far greater public health risk to my kids than the coronavirus right now – it’ s being completely blown out of proportion, ” she said. The total death toll of Sars in Canada was 44, she said. “ Last year in Toronto, 41 people got hit by cars. ”
Racist responses have also been seen in other countries with Chinese diaspora communities. In Australia, Queensland MP Duncan Pegg warned residents of false health bulletins circulating online that stoked fear of communities with high proportions Asian residents.
But Go also said that the reactions in Canada – which includes some of the most ethnically diverse cities in the world – expose a current of everyday racism which is always present.
“ Two or three months from now, the coronavirus will likely be gone. But this is not just a public health issue. This is an issue of racism in Canada. “ The best thing to come from this – the best impact – would be people collectively learning that we can do better. ”
• This article was amended on 29 January 2020. Terri Chu was concerned about the “ proliferation of SUVs ” not the “ proliferation of STDs ”, as we originally wrote. This has now been changed. | general |
Global firms halt China travel as coronavirus spooks markets | Businesses are stopping staff travel to China and urging workers inside the country to stay out of the office as concerns grow about the continued spread of the coronavirus from the central city of Wuhan to the rest of China and beyond.
HSBC, which has the biggest presence of foreign banks in China, has banned all staff travel to Hong Kong for two weeks and to mainland China until further notice. Asia-focused lender Standard Chartered is also restricting travel to China and Hong Kong and has asked staff either returning from China or who have family members who have visited the country to work from home for 14 days after their return.
Chinese video games giant Tencent and online retail giant Alibaba have asked their staff to stay at home until 10 February, while Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs has told staff who have visited mainland China to work from home for the next fortnight.
French automotive group PSA, which makes the Peugeot and Citroen car brands, said it is assisting with repatriation of all non-Chinese staff and their families from its sites in the Wuhan area.
The action from companies worried about the impact of the virus comes as travel is being restricted within the region and between China and the world. The high-speed rail link between Hong Kong and mainland China will be suspended from 30 January.
The virus has spooked stock markets over the past week amid the growing threat to the global economy. Airlines, hotel groups and luxury goods firms have been among the worst hit. Burberry’ s share price has lost 14% over the past 10 days, while IAG, the owner of British Airways, is down 12%. Holiday Inn group Intercontinental Hotels has lost 10%.
The price of copper – regarded as a bellwether of the health of the global economy – fell for the 10th consecutive day. The oil price is also under pressure, with Brent Crude changing hands at less than $ 59 a barrel at one point. China’ s demand for oil has been growing at 5.5% a year.
The Japanese economy minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, warned on Tuesday that factory production and company profits could take a hit from the virus. China is Japan’ s second-biggest export market and 40% of tourist spending in the country comes from Chinese visitors. Carmaker Honda has three plants in Wuhan.
Nishimura said if the virus was not contained “ we’ re concerned it could hurt Japanese exports, output and corporate profits. ”
Some economists are forecasting a possible slowdown in the world’ s second-largest economy. Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Economics, said China’ s real GDP could fall in the first three months of this year, depending on how long it takes to contain the outbreak.
Beamish said lost factory production could be made up, but missed holiday spending would simply be lost.
Official Chinese data two weeks ago showed the slowest economic growth in 29 years. | general |
Boris Johnson gets final warning with Huawei 5G verdict imminent | Former ministers have sounded their final warnings to Boris Johnson about the Chinese telecoms firm Huawei ahead of his expected decision on whether it will play a part in the UK’ s 5G network.
The prime minister will chair a meeting of the national security council ( NSC) later on Tuesday before making a judgment on the firm’ s future in the country after months of concern around security, including from the US president, Donald Trump.
A number of former senior government figures and MPs voiced concerns just hours before the meeting, urging that if Huawei is involved in rolling out the 5G infrastructure then it should be time-limited and the US and UK must come together to work out their own 5G technology.
5G is the next generation mobile phone network and it promises much higher connection speeds, lower latency ( response times) and to be more reliable than the creaking 4G networks we have now.
It will be much faster, with download speeds 5-10 times quicker than 4G to start with, meaning a movie will download in seconds rather than minutes. Over the next few years it should become even faster, as the technology matures. It will also have lower latency, the time it takes for something to happen: tap a link and the download will start faster.
But perhaps the most important thing 5G will immediately do for users is increase the carrying capacity of the masts, meaning more people can connect at the same time.
Despite the International Commission on Non‐Ionizing Radiation Protection declaring it to be safe for humans, the technology has been criticised by conspiracy theorists who have associated it with the 2020 coronavirus outbreak, leading to vandalism attacks on 5G towers.
Samuel Gibbs, consumer technology editor
The former defence minister Tobias Ellwood told Sky News: “ If we are going to introduce Huawei into 5G I would put a time bar on it. I would cap their involvement. I would scrutinise it very carefully. ”
He pressed the need for the “ Five Eyes ” intelligence alliance, which is made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US, to develop their own infrastructure for faster connectivity so as not to rely on the currently more advanced and cheaper Chinese technology.
“ Let’ s get together and create a 5G so that in a couple of years’ time we can move to our own system, ” he said.
The state ownership of Huawei raises serious questions about its links to other parts of the Chinese government, he said.
“ We don’ t know the connections between Huawei and the Chinese army, we don’ t know the connections between Huawei and its own intelligence communities. Every single bit of device that comes into this country will need to be checked, that will cost money itself.
“ So we are going to embrace Huawei now, that’ s understood because we want to move forward with 5G, but I would like to see our own system developed. ”
Huawei is a Chinese telecoms company founded in 1987. US officials believe it poses a security risk because the Chinese government will make the firm engineer backdoors in its technology, through which information could be accessed by Beijing. Donald Trump has banned US companies from sharing technology with Huawei and has been putting pressure on other nations to follow suit.
The UK has accepted there is some risk in working with Huawei, but security services do not believe it to be unmanageable. It has designated Huawei a “ high-risk vendor ”, but the company will be given the opportunity to build non-core elements of Britain’ s 5G network. The head of MI5 recently said he was confident the US-UK intelligence-sharing relationship would not be affected if London gave Huawei the nod.
Much of the doubt surrounding Huawei stems from founder Ren Zhengfei’ s time as an engineer in the China's People’ s Liberation Army from 1974-83. His daughter Meng Wanzhou, a senior Huawei executive, was arrested in Canada in December 2018 over allegations of Iran-sanctions violations.
Huawei insists the Chinese government has never asked it to build a backdoor into its technology, and has offered to sign a “ no spy agreement ” with countries adopting it. The trade rivalry between the US and China has intensified in recent years and the firm believes the White House is simply using it as a weapon in that larger fight.
Kevin Rawlinson
Johnson has promised better connectivity for the UK repeatedly since becoming prime minister and gigabit broadband was a key a pledge in his 2019 general election manifesto. A 5G network would ensure better video streaming, download speeds and a faster service.
However, Bob Seely MP, who is standing to be chair of the Commons’ foreign affairs select committee, said the cost of introducing Huawei for 5G was too high for the government.
The Conservative former army captain told BBC Radio 4’ s Today programme on Tuesday: “ The danger is that you allow China leverage into your system, into your critical national infrastructure if you allow Huawei in.
“ China is building a surveillance state, the kind of which the world has not seen, and I don’ t think we’ ve thought through what that means for the next century in terms of human freedom and data privacy. ”
Jeremy Wright, a former culture secretary, also wants the government to put limits on Huawei, should it decide to use the company, by capping its market share to allow other suppliers into the network.
On US warnings that any use of Huawei in 5G could jeopardise future intelligence sharing, Wright said it was a concern but said the assessment of British intelligence officials was highly respected globally.
He told Talk Radio he did not believe the close cooperation between the two countries would unravel over one judgment.
“ We should take very seriously what our allies say … respective intelligence agencies, British and American, over decades. I don’ t believe that will fall apart over one decision, ” he said.
The former national security adviser Peter Ricketts said he had been assured that Huawei infrastructure, like an aerial, would not allow the firm into the very heart of the UK network.
“ I don’ t honestly believe some of these blood-curdling threats … [ such as ] it will cut off intelligence links with the US. I think some of the people pressing us on all this have other agendas, ” Lord Ricketts told Sky. “ It’ s all part of the competition between America and China for the future of technology. ”
However, he said the fact there is no British and US 5G solution “ is a problem ”.
“ We haven’ t had a strategy to have a 5G technology. If this is a [ sign ] of the future where it’ s going to be China dominating technology in the next generation … I am worried about that.
“ It’ s a wake-up call to get our act together to make sure there are western solutions for the future in these high technology areas, ” he said. | general |
Germany confirms first human coronavirus transmission in Europe | The first human-to-human transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus in Europe has been reported in Germany, where a man was infected by a colleague who had been in China, fuelling anxieties about the potential ease of international spread.
Experts said it was of particular concern that the Chinese woman who originally had the virus apparently had no symptoms when she transmitted it to her colleague. There have been warnings from inside China that people may be infectious before they start to feel ill.
So far there has been very limited spread from China. A handful of countries have reported cases including France, which has three, and the United States, which has five. This is the first reported European case of transmission from one person to another but it has also occurred in Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan.
The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that China had agreed the WHO could send international experts “ as soon as possible ” after talks in Beijing. It said a better understanding of the virus’ s ability to spread from person to person was urgently needed to advise other countries and guide the global response to the outbreak.
Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, said the country was battling a “ demon ” virus during talks earlier on Tuesday with the UN agency’ s head, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. His comments came after anger simmered on Chinese social media over the handling of the health emergency by local officials.
The vast majority of more than 4,000 cases, however, and all 106 deaths, have been in China and principally in Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus emerged and caused a mass outbreak of viral pneumonia.
Many governments have brought in screening or other controls at airports for arrivals from China. Countries that have said they will repatriate their citizens in Wuhan – including France, Japan and the United States – are making arrangements to isolate them once back on home soil.
On Tuesday evening the UK Foreign Office updated its advice to warn against all but essential travel to mainland China following the coronavirus outbreak.
The travel advice for China on the gov.uk website was updated to say: “ The Foreign and Commonwealth Office advise against all travel to Hubei province due to the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak. If you’ re in this area and able to leave, you should do so.
“ The Chinese government continue to impose further restrictions on movement within China in response to the coronavirus outbreak. It may become harder over the coming weeks for those who wish to leave China to do so. If you feel that you may want to leave China soon, you should consider making plans to do so before any further restrictions may be imposed. ”
Hong Kong has announced major cuts to its transport links with mainland China.
The 33 year-old man who has been infected had not visited China, but a Chinese colleague who visited Germany last week had “ started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23 ”, said Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety.
The Chinese colleague, a woman, gave a training session on 21 January at the office of the car parts supplier Webasto in Stockdorf in Bavaria. The man who had attended the session tested positive for the virus on Monday evening. He remains in hospital in an isolation ward, but Zapf said he “ was doing well ”.
The Chinese woman sought medical attention when she returned from China and was found to have the virus. She is said to have recently visited her parents in Wuhan.
In a statement, the Webasto company said it had halted all business travel to and from China “ for at least the next two weeks ”.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
Health officials are checking 40 people who had been in contact with the two infected workers, recently, including colleagues and family members.
The European Centre for Disease Control said in a statement that the Bavarian case had not changed its assessment of the risk but it expected more similar cases. “ At this stage of the ongoing outbreak in the Hubei province in China, it is likely that there will be more imported cases in Europe. As a consequence, it could be expected to see limited local transmission in Europe.
“ A single detected case in Europe does not change the overall picture for Europe, nor does it change the assessment that there is currently a moderate likelihood of importation of cases. ”
Experts said human-to-human transmission outside China was unsurprising but the German case is concerning largely because the virus appears to have been transmitted by somebody without symptoms, said Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“ The Vietnamese case was reported by WHO and he was in contact with his sick father who had returned from China. The Japanese cases was a tour bus driver who had driven around two groups of Chinese tourists and the German cases had attended a work-based training event also attended by a woman who only became ill two days later during her return to China two days later. The German case is most worrying because if the Chinese woman was indeed asymptomatic at the time of the training session it would confirm reports of spread before symptoms develop making standard control strategies less effective, ” he said.
The novel coronavirus is believed to have emerged from wild animals sold for food in the Wuhan seafood market, which has now been closed. It has a fatality rate of about 2%, usually in people who are in poor health with weak immune systems that are unable to fight it off. But experts at Imperial College London who do infectious disease modelling for the World Health Organization believe there are thousands of mild cases that are not being recorded, and that the total may be 100,000 cases already. That would put the death rate far lower.
Symptoms include a sore throat, fever and breathing difficulties. People are warned to protect themselves by hand-washing, because it can be transmitted in skin-to-skin contact, and to cover their nose and mouth if coughing or sneezing. In the UK, the advice is for anyone who thinks they may have been in contact with somebody carrying the virus to stay at home by themselves and call 111 for advice. | general |
Coronavirus: NSW government asks students returning from China to stay home from school | The New South Wales government has advised parents with children who have recently returned from China to refrain from returning to school for two weeks due to the ongoing spread of the coronavirus.
The advice states if children were travelling in the Hubei province of China, including Wuhan in the past 14 days, they should remain at home. Those who travelled over Christmas and New Year but were back by mid-January can go to school.
The state’ s minister for health, Brad Hazzard, stressed that the government was asking, not forcing, parents to keep those affected children from school as a precautionary step.
“ We need to make sure, as ministers here, that if it’ s only a relatively short period of asking youngsters to stay away from our schools, then on balance we determined that we would be making sure that our kids were kept safe in that situation, ” he said.
The NSW education minister, Sarah Mitchell, said it was the right decision.
“ We know that many in the community have been wanting to see this. I think it is important we are taking this precautionary measure in line with community sentiment but also knowing we are doing everything we can even though the risk is low, to ensure the safety in that school environment, ” she said.
Hazzard said a number of schools had expressed concern to the government about children returning to school.
The advice will apply to all government schools, private and Catholic schools, and early education centres.
The Queensland Department of Health has advised that “ if children who have links to Wuhan or the Provence of Hubei in China become unwell they should not attend childcare or kindergarten. ”
Guardian Australia has sought comment from the Victorian government. The Western Australian government said on Monday it would release guidelines for children returning to school in the next 48 hours.
The advice is the opposite of statements made earlier by Australia’ s education minister, who rebuked schools that are forcing healthy students returning from China to stay away.
Some private schools were already isolating pupils who have visited China or telling them to stay home for at least a fortnight, in an attempt to stop the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
“ Individual schools make their own decisions but the advice from the Australian government is to follow our medical advice, ” the federal education minister, Dan Tehan, told ABC radio on Tuesday morning.
“ I would say to all schools that they should be following the advice of the health department, that is the clear position of the Australian government.
“ Obviously in the end they will have to answer to their parents, but also they will have to answer to state and territory governments, who have responsibility for schools. ”
The federal government’ s advice is that if students have returned home from China but are healthy, it is reasonable for them to attend school.
If they have been in contact with somebody with coronavirus, they should not attend school for up to 14 days.
The prime minister, Scott Morrison, said in a press conference on Tuesday that the government was “ continuing to provide advice, working with schools, with universities, with the tourism industry and others to ensure the information is getting to people about this virus, and that they’ re in a position then to seek medical attention in the appropriate way, should they be presenting with any of these symptoms ”.
Sydney Catholic Schools, which represents 152 primary and secondary schools in Sydney, told parents in a letter on Tuesday to refrain from bringing their children to school if they had visited China at any time since December until they were checked and cleared by a doctor.
“ If you have not visited China, but your children are exhibiting any flu-like symptoms, please refrain from sending them to school until they have recovered, ” Tony Farley, executive director of Sydney Catholic Schools, said in the letter.
Malcolm Elliott, the Australian Primary Principals Association’ s president, said private schools had a greater ability to make individual decisions about the rules around responses to health crises.
“ The Catholic schools and the government schools will operate in a much more systemic way, ” he said. “ The Catholic schools generally operate at the direction of the education office, and the government schools operate at the direction of their systems. ”
Catholic schools that are private will have more direct control, while the low-fee Catholic schools will generally work at the direction of their diocese.
“ Schools where there are boarders and so on, it is completely understandable schools want to put measures in place to ensure the safety of all, ” Elliott said.
“ We know that schools will be very mindful of the welfare, both physical and psychological, of those students who may or may not be affected by the coronavirus at this time. ”
Several Australian-based change.org petitions calling for an extra two-week leave period, or for those returning from China to keep their children at home, have between hundreds and thousands of signatures. The petitions are being circulated on WeChat.
“ We would like to ask the school management to ask families recently returned from trips to Asia, Thailand, Singapore and China in particular to keep their children ( well or unwell) at home for 2 weeks before attending school, ” one petition with 5,000 signatures says.
Another with more than 7,000 signatures says: “ We strongly suggest for two weeks extension period for all school. Or a document to ask families recently returned from trips to Asia, Thailand, Singapore, US and China in particular to keep their children ( well or unwell) at home for 2 weeks before attending school. ”
The coronavirus outbreak also poses a significant threat to Australian universities, both in relation to the potential spread of the virus and in economic terms.
There are roughly 164,000 Chinese students who attend university in Australia, pumping billions of dollars into the national economy.
Tehan said university officials were working with students in China who were unable to travel so that they might be able to take online courses.
A 21-year-old Sydney university student became the fifth person in Australia to be diagnosed with the coronavirus after flying back from the virus’ s epicentre in Wuhan, China.
The University of New South Wales student displayed no symptoms upon landing in Sydney last Thursday but began exhibiting flu-like symptoms 24 hours later. | general |
US briefing: Trump's defence, Middle East peace and Kobe Bryant | Good morning, I’ m Tim Walker with today’ s essential stories.
Unless the Democrats’ efforts to call witnesses in Donald Trump’ s impeachment trial succeed, it could all be over by Friday. That seemed to be the plan for the president’ s legal team, whose arguments on Monday ignored the damaging new revelations from John Bolton’ s forthcoming book. The former national security adviser reportedly claims Trump told him he was withholding aid to Ukraine until Kyiv announced an investigation into the Bidens – corroborating the central charge against the president.
GOP Senators. Mitt Romney, Susan Collins and even Lindsey Graham have signalled their willingness to vote for witnesses, including Bolton, to testify. But Graham said Joe and Hunter Biden should also be called to appear.
Ken Starr. The lawyer who led the impeachment charge against Bill Clinton is now defending Trump, declaring – apparently without irony – that “ presidential impeachment is hell ”.
Trump will on Tuesday unveil his administration’ s new Middle East peace plan, crafted by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, which the president has described as the “ deal of the century ”. But leaked details of the proposals, engineered with almost no input from the Palestinians, suggest they will generate widespread controversy over their weighting in favour of Israel. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, himself facing an imminent election and corruption charges, is in Washington DC for the launch of the plan.
Yemen violence. The surge in violence in Yemen could scupper efforts to secure a peace settlement in the country’ s lengthy civil war, the UN special envoy has said, blaming fresh regional instability on the recent US killing of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.
At least 106 people have now died from the coronavirus, Chinese officials have confirmed, including the first death from the disease in the country’ s capital, Beijing. Several countries have strongly advised against travel to China, while the US and Japan are both organising airlifts to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, the quarantined city at the centre of the outbreak. Economists have warned that the crisis will have a “ significant ” impact on Chinese growth.
Whether to worry. It remains unclear just how dangerous the coronavirus is, but its spread outside China is not unexpected. The CDC has said there is nevertheless very little immediate risk to the American public.
Quarantine life. Michael Standaert reports on how the people of Wuhan have been keeping themselves occupied under quarantine, from indoor fishing to outdoor exercise classes.
Investigators are working to determine the cause of the helicopter crash that killed Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna and seven others on Sunday, as America remains in shock over the death of the 41-year-old NBA legend. While the aircraft’ s maintenance records and its pilot Ara Zobayan were both being looked into, attention has so far focused on weather at the time of the accident, which was sufficiently foggy that the LAPD had grounded its own chopper fleet.
Other victims. The other victims are believed to include a well-known college baseball coach, John Altobelli, and his wife and daughter; Gianna’ s basketball teammate Peyton Chester and her mother; and the girls’ coach, Christina Mauser.
Assault case. The Washington Post has been criticised for suspending a reporter who tweeted a link to an article about a rape allegation made against Bryant in 2003. Joan Niesen argues it is important to mourn the man in full.
At least eight people were killed after a huge fire broke out at a marina in Jackson County, Alabama on Monday, destroying dozens of boats. Fire officials warned the death toll could rise.
Miriam Haley, a former production assistant at the Weinstein Company, has recounted her alleged 2006 rape by Harvey Weinstein at his trial in New York. Haley was the second of six women set to testify against the disgraced film producer.
A British man has died in US immigration custody in Florida. According to Buzzfeed, Ben James Owen, 39, was arrested on suspicion of stalking, false imprisonment and domestic assault, and is thought to have died by asphyxiation due to hanging.
The US lawyer Lisa Bloom has urged Prince Andrew to “ stop playing games ” after prosecutors said on Monday that the Duke of York had so far provided “ zero ” cooperation with the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.
My life as a quiz obsessive
After decades of bouncing between schools and jobs in India, the US and beyond, one of the few constants in Samanth Subramanian’ s life is quizzing. From pub quizzes in Colombo to the Geek Bowl XIII in Las Vegas, he shares what he has learned in the world of trivia.
How Catholic hospitals are denying assisted death
When Neil Mahoney learned he had incurable cancer, he chose to pursue an assisted death under Colorado’ s 2016 End of Life Options Act, one of an increasing number of similar state laws across the US. But then a Catholic-run hospital fired his physician for encouraging “ a morally unacceptable option. ” JoNel Aleccia reports.
‘ Giving up sex was a massive relief’
Dating apps have made it easier than ever to play the field. But as Lizzie Cernik discovers, some singles find greater contentment by giving up sex altogether: “ I started to see myself as a person, ” says one former celibate, “ rather than a girlfriend or a sexual plaything. ”
The ‘ Venice of Africa’ battles a rising ocean
In Saint-Louis, the old colonial capital of Senegal, the consequences of climate change are tangible, with the rising waters of the Atlantic already displacing thousands. It’ s a warning of what awaits west Africa’ s coastal cities in the coming decades, writes Monika Pronczuk.
Art Cullen thought Bernie Sanders’ surge in the Iowa polls seemed overblown. Until last weekend, that is, when he saw the crowds at a string of packed Sanders rallies.
Sanders has tapped into a vein of frustration that elected Trump, and is getting people of all stripes to give him a look. Pundits’ warnings about a Sanders ‘ ceiling’ have begun to sound like the products of people who fear his potential strength.
Martina Navratilova has joined John McEnroe in criticising Margaret Court for her controversial views on gender and race, as the 77-year-old Australian was honoured on the 50th anniversary of her calendar grand slam. Navratilova has argued for Melbourne’ s Margaret Court Arena to be renamed in honour of another Australian tennis great, Evonne Goolagong Cawley.
Japan’ s sumo fans have a new hero: Tokushoryu, a relative unknown and the lowest-ranked wrestler at the sport’ s first main tournament of the year in Tokyo, who burst into tears immediately after winning the 15-day contest.
The US morning briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes every weekday. If you’ re not already signed up, subscribe now. | general |
Tuesday briefing: Start hiring for green power surge – report | Good day to you. Warren Murray with you ahead of the sunrise on another day in the news.
Britain must recruit more than 100,000 people to fill green energy roles within a decade if the government hopes to meet its binding climate targets, National Grid has warned. Its report says that number is likely to reach 400,000 by 2050, when the government expects to have developed a clean energy system based on renewable electricity, green heating systems and electric vehicles. A quarter of the green jobs required will need to be based in the north of the country, according to National Grid.
It is estimated that more than 21,000 new recruits will be required to complete energy projects that include an offshore windfarm off the coast of Blyth and a new subsea power cable to Norway from the north-east of England. Research carried out by YouGov has found that people of all ages, from all regions across the UK, are “ looking for a job with environmental purpose ”. Meanwhile Sainsbury’ s is announcing a £1bn plan to become a carbon-neutral business by 2040, 10 years ahead of the government’ s target.
Briton dies in US custody – A British man aged 39 died while being held in US immigration detention in Florida a week and a half ago, the Guardian has confirmed. The death was provisionally attributed to hanging. “ Our staff are in contact with the US authorities following the death of a British man in Florida, ” said a spokeswoman for the Foreign Office in London. It is the fifth death at a US immigration detention centre since October 2019. There were eight deaths in the year preceding that.
Coronavirus death in Beijing – We are continuing live coverage this morning of the coronavirus outbreak in China, where the official death toll has risen to 106 and the first fatality has been reported in the capital, Beijing. Up to 200 British citizens trapped in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, will be offered repatriation to the UK, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said. Those who choose to return will be asked to isolate themselves, regardless of symptoms. More than 1,500 people have arrived in the UK on flights from Wuhan since 10 January and it has emerged that the government has been able to trace only a fraction of them. Economists have warned of a “ significant ” impact on Chinese growth and the global economy. In Wuhan itself, locked-down residents have been distracting themselves with indoor fishing, chanting battles and other impromptu pursuits. Michael Standaert writes from Sichuan: “ The word ‘ Jiāyóu’ echoed between Wuhan’ s high-rise apartment blocks, as people took to their balconies to shout ‘ keep going’ to their neighbours. ”
Doctors ‘ burnt out’ – Almost a third of UK doctors may have burnout, stress and “ compassion fatigue ”, according to the biggest published survey of its kind. A & E doctors and GPs have the highest levels of exhaustion and stress, figures in the BMJ Open journal show. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association, said: “ Years of systemic underfunding and serious workforce shortages mean NHS doctors are working longer hours in highly pressured, understaffed environments, and their wellbeing is suffering as a result. ” Separate analysis by Cancer Research UK say the NHS is failing to detect about 1,100 cases of bowel cancer a year in England because diagnostic services are so short-staffed, with about one in 10 posts for radiographers, radiologists and endoscopists lying vacant.
Middle East turmoil – A surge in violence in Yemen could scupper fragile peace efforts, says the UN’ s special envoy for the country. On 18 January more than 130 Yemeni soldiers were killed at a training camp, in one of the civil war’ s bloodiest single incidents. “ We have to get the genie back in the bottle, ” said Martin Griffiths, who is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN security council. In Libya, a blockade of oil ports involving the Libyan National Army ( LNA) has cut oil production from 1.2m barrels a day to 260,000 barrels. The LNA is headed by Gen Khalifa Haftar who opposes the UN-recognised Government of National Accord based in Tripoli, yet, writes Patrick Wintour, is widely known to be backed by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, and to a degree by France. The head of the national oil corporation has said countries meddling in the conflict are putting Libya on the road to “ a disaster and a nightmare ”.
Reputation punctured – The 2020 edition of the Michelin guide, the “ gastronomy bible ”, has been launched amid controversy over a leak that revealed it downgraded Auberge du Pont de Collonges, the oldest three-star restaurant in the world. The new guide contains 3,439 restaurant listings in France and Monaco, 628 of them starred. Fresh three-star ratings went to Christopher Coutanceau’ s seafood restaurant in La Rochelle, Japanese-born Kei Kobayashi’ s Kei restaurant in Paris, and L’ Oustau de Baumanière, a family restaurant at Les-baux-de-Provence that had lost its third star in 1954.
The creator of The Thick of It and Veep discusses why modern politics has moved beyond satire. And: Bryan Graham on Kobe Bryant.
Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https: //audio.guim.co.uk/2020/01/27-73824-20200127 TIF Armando.mp3
Samanth Subramanian has taken part in quizzes all his life: in schools, in pubs and on TV shows. The biggest secret, he argues, is that curiosity, not knowledge, is the key to success.
America remains in shock over the death of Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gianna in a helicopter crash on Sunday as investigators worked to determine the cause of the incident, which also killed seven others. Despite a late surge from Bournemouth, first-half goals from Bukayo Saka and Eddie Nketiah were enough to take Arsenal to a 2-1 home win in the FA Cup fourth round. Gary Lineker, the BBC presenter and former striker, has told the Guardian in an interview how VAR must change and why the licence fee should be voluntary.
Faf du Plessis has said there was no malicious intent when he shoulder-barged England’ s Jos Buttler during an incident on the fourth and final day of the fourth Test that looks likely to land the South Africa captain with a disciplinary charge. A youthful French side have been warned to brace themselves for a crash course in Test-match reality on Sunday when England head to Paris for the opening round of the 2020 Six Nations Championship. World No 1 Ashleigh Barty withstood a fierce challenge from Petra Kvitová to become the first local woman to reach the Australian Open semi-finals in 36 years. And a US college has suspended one of its American football coaches after he named Adolf Hitler as a dream dinner guest.
Economists have warned that the coronavirus outbreak poses a “ significant ” threat to Chinese growth as infections continue to spread. Investors translated those concerns into heavy losses on Asian markets overnight with South Korea, where a fourth case was confirmed, leading the way with a fall of 3%. The FTSE100 is expected to stabilise at the opening after losing more than 2% on Monday. The pound is buying $ 1.306 and €1.184.
The Duke of York receives a pasting across the front pages: “ Prince Andrew accused of zero cooperation in Epstein inquiry ” reports the Guardian. The Sun renders Andrew cuttingly as a missing-person poster that asks: “ Have you seen this prince? ”
“ Andrew snubs FBI over Epstein sex quiz ” – slightly odd language from the Mirror. “ Zero help from duke ” says the Metro while the Mail asks on behalf of the FBI: “ Why won’ t Andrew speak to us? ”. And on it goes in the i – “ FBI: Prince Andrew is ignoring us ”.
The splash in the Times is “ EU demands its judges keep control after Brexit ” – Brussels wants the European court of justice to be able to enforce the terms of any trade, farming and fisheries deal. In a similar vein the FT says Britain and the EU may be headed into a “ fish for financial services ” deal and says “ UK and EU face post-Brexit clash ” over the City and the seas. The Express has as its hook “ Boris: I won’ t give up fishing rights ”.
The Guardian Morning Briefing is delivered to thousands of inboxes bright and early every weekday. If you are not already receiving it by email, you can sign up here.
For more news: www.theguardian.com | general |
Australian coronavirus evacuees to be quarantined on Christmas Island | Australia has unveiled plans to evacuate some of its nationals from Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province, flying the most “ isolated and vulnerable ” of 600 citizens to quarantine on Christmas Island.
In a joint operation with New Zealand, which has about 50 citizens in the city at the epicentre of the global coronavirus outbreak, Australians will be evacuated from the locked-down city on a “ last-in first-out ” basis.
Christmas Island, located 2,600km from the Australian mainland in the Indian Ocean, is the site of a notorious immigration detention facility that currently houses a Sri Lankan family of four.
All those who are evacuated on the charter flight will be quarantined in the detention centre for up to 14 days, the internationally recognised incubation period for the virus.
The chartered Qantas flight follows the Japanese and US governments flying citizens out of Wuhan on Wednesday morning, and plans by France, Indonesia and other countries for similar evacuations.
The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, said his government would move to extricate its citizens from Wuhan as quickly as possible.
“ We have taken a decision this morning to prepare a plan for an operation to provide some assisted departures for isolated and vulnerable Australians in Wuhan and the Hubei province.
“ This will be done subject obviously to working closely and with the authority and approval of the Chinese government. ”
Australians evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined on Christmas Island will be asked to pay some or all of the costs of their transport and quarantine.
“ They will also be required to commit to making a contribution to the cost, consistent with normal arrangements in these circumstances, ” a government statement said.
Morrison stressed there was “ a limited window ” to extricate foreign nationals, and said the last-in-first-out basis would prioritise Australians who were short-term visitors to Hubei province, and who did not have family or other support, rather than those who lived in the province or who had been there for longer periods.
“ We’ re particularly focused on the more vulnerable components of that population. That’ s young people, particularly infants, and those who are elderly and that would be our priority in any operation we’ re able to put in place. ”
On Wednesday the death toll from the virus reached 132 in China and there are more than 5,900 confirmed cases of infection on the mainland. There have been no deaths from coronavirus outside China.
Morrison said it could not be guaranteed that the Australian plane could land and evacuate the Australian and New Zealand citizens.
“ I want to stress that … we can not give a guarantee that this operation is able to succeed and I also want to stress very clearly that we may not be in a position if we’ re able to do this on one occasion to do it on another occasion.
“ There are many complications and many issues that we’ re going to have to overcome. ”
The prime minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, said her government was in close contact with Chinese authorities over New Zealand nationals, and working closely with Australia.
“ I spoke with prime minister Morrison again this afternoon and we have confirmed that we will work together on a joint Anzac-assisted departure of Australians and New Zealanders from Wuhan.
“ Specific details of the evacuation plan, including the medical protocols that will be applied to returning New Zealanders, and access arrangements on the ground in China, are being worked through by officials. ”
The Australian foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, said just over 600 Australians were registered as being in Hubei, which has been under a militarily enforced lockdown for nearly a week.
Payne said the Australian government had upgraded its travel advice, saying Australians should reconsider their need to travel to China, and not to travel to Hubei province.
The New Zealand government followed suit on Wednesday.
“ Chinese authorities have restricted travel for parts of the country and may extend these restrictions at short notice, ” the New Zealand advice says. “ Travellers may be quarantined, due to their health condition or previous location. ”
There are five confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia – four in New South Wales and one in Victoria – but the federal chief medical officer, Prof Brendan Murphy, said this number was expected to rise. He said the risk was “ extremely low ”, adding: “ We want to stress that there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission in Australia. ”
Authorities are still working to trace all human contact made by infected patients since they entered the country from China.
Morrison said the Christmas Island immigration detention centre would be repurposed as a quarantine centre, augmented by medical and military logistics teams.
Currently the detention centre is being used to house just four people – Sri Lankan couple Priya and Nades Murugappan, and their Australian-born daughters Kopika and Tharunicaa. The family formerly lived in the Queensland town of Biloela and their months-long ongoing detention – at a cost of $ 26m – has been intensely controversial.
The Murugappan family was not been told by the government of the plan to move evacuees from Wuhan to Christmas Island before they were informed by friends. The “ Home to Bilo ” campaign said they have repeatedly called for the family to be returned to mainland Australia.
“ Their ongoing detention on Christmas Island has isolated and traumatised this young family.
“ This new development confirms that the most appropriate place for them is in their home, Biloela. ”
On Wednesday an Australian research facility announced it had the first team outside of China to recreate the deadly virus in a lab, which will improve the speed and accuracy of testing and increase the chances of developing a vaccine.
“ This is one step, a piece in the puzzle that we have contributed, ” said virus identification laboratory head Dr Julian Druce, from Melbourne’ s Peter Doherty Institute. | general |
Hong Kong cuts China transport links as coronavirus toll mounts | Hong Kong has announced major cuts to its transport links with mainland China, as several countries scrambled to fly their citizens out of the city at the centre of a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 100 people.
Hong Kong’ s leader, Carrie Lam, said high-speed trains and ferries that cross the border would be suspended from Thursday. The number of flights to mainland China would also be halved, she said, and personal travel permits for mainland Chinese to the city suspended.
Several countries – including Japan, the US and France – have announced they will evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, where the outbreak began in December and has since killed 106 people. Almost all transport to the city has been blocked and its hospitals completely overwhelmed.
The World Health Organization’ s director general has criticised the evacuation plans, according to China’ s foreign ministry. “ Tedros [ Adhanom ] said the WHO does not advocate for countries to evacuate their citizens from China, adding there was no need to overreact, ” the foreign ministry said in a statement. “ He said the WHO is confident in China’ s ability to prevent and control the epidemic. ”
Meanwhile German officials said a German man who tested positive for the virus was infected by a work colleague, in what is believed to be the first human transmission in Europe.
On Monday, the British government, which has been accused of a slow response to the crisis, asked its citizens to contact the Foreign and Commonwealth Office so it could determine how many British people were in Wuhan. Matt Hancock, the UK health secretary, said citizens would be offered repatriation. It is thought that up to 300 UK nationals are in the wider Hubei province, where most deaths have occurred.
Several countries have also stepped up their warnings over travel to China, including the US, which is advising citizens to avoid non-essential visits to any part of the country. Previously it had warned only about non-essential travel to Wuhan or other parts of Hubei province, where most deaths have occurred. Germany and Turkey have released similar statements asking citizens to reconsider all travel.
Lam, who was wearing a face mask during her press conference, told Hong Kong residents to return from the mainland as soon as possible and quarantine themselves at home for 14 days. The cuts to travel links with the mainland follows calls by a union of hospital workers for the border to be closed. Hong Kong has recorded eight cases of coronavirus, and health workers had threatened to strike over the territory’ s response to the outbreak.
Chinese companies are working overtime to produce masks, with five of the 12 main mask-producing companies based in Guangdong province resuming production after pausing for the lunar new year holiday, the business publication First Financial reported on Tuesday.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
About 4,515 cases of the illness have been recorded across the country, including almost 1,000 people in critical condition, according to state media. Though the number of cases appears to have risen quickly, from 2,887 on Monday, this was likely to be due to better reporting, and the numbers remain small compared with the population.
On Tuesday, Beijing confirmed the city’ s first death from the virus.
An American citizen working in Wuhan, who asked not to be named, said she had secured a seat on a US flight, and expected to be quarantined afterwards for up to 14 days. “ It could either be in a hospital or a hotel, ” she said while travelling to the airport.
“ I plan to visit relatives back in the states, but they live across the country in Missouri and Alabama so it will be even more traveling. I don’ t want to avoid family for too long, ” she said, adding that she had not shown symptoms and had been taking precautions.
Many American people will not have secured a seat on Tuesday’ s flight, which was planned mostly for consulate staff. Japan said its first flight would carry about 200 passengers, out of 650 citizens hoping to return, but that further airlifts would be scheduled.
China has encouraged citizens to reconsider the timing of overseas flights, and introduced sweeping domestic travel restrictions in an attempt to stop the spread of the disease. On Monday, officials postponed the end of this week’ s new year holiday until at least 2 February in an effort to reduce the chances of infection during what is the country’ s busiest travel season. In Shanghai, which has recorded 66 cases of the virus, the end of the holiday has been postponed until 9 February.
Further precautions have been announced in many cities, including bans on long-distance bus services, which are relied upon by migrant workers returning from their family homes after the break. Several big chains said they will temporarily close their stores in some areas.
There were nearly 7,000 more cases suspected and awaiting confirmation, China’ s national health commission said on Monday.
More than 10 countries have confirmed cases of the disease, though patient numbers outside of China remain small. On Monday, Canada and Sri Lanka said they had recorded first cases of infection.
Malaysia on Monday banned visitors arriving from Hubei, while Mongolia, which is heavily dependent on trade with China, has also banned cars from crossing the border with its neighbour.
Additional reporting by Michael Standaert in Shenzhen and Wu Pei Lin | general |
Coronavirus: Foreign Office finalising plans to evacuate Britons | The government is finalising plans to evacuate UK nationals from the Chinese province at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, Downing Street has said, with plans expected to be announced imminently.
“ The Foreign Office is urgently exploring options for British nationals to leave Hubei province, ” a Downing Street spokesman said. “ Details are being finalised, and the FCO will confirm these as soon as they can. ”
A Foreign Office update advised Britons in Hubei to ring one of two dedicated 24-hour telephone numbers before 11am on Wednesday to register their desire to be evacuated.
On Tuesday evening the Foreign Office updated its advice to warn against all but essential travel to mainland China following the coronavirus outbreak.
The travel advice for China on the gov.uk website was updated to say: “ If you’ re in this area and able to leave, you should do so.
“ The Chinese government continue to impose further restrictions on movement within China in response to the coronavirus outbreak. It may become harder over the coming weeks for those who wish to leave China to do so. ”
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, said: “ Due to the increasing travel restrictions and the public health situation, we now advise against all but essential travel to China.
“ We are also working urgently to finalise arrangements for an assisted departure from Hubei province for British nationals this week, and are in contact with people in Hubei to ensure they register their interest and that we can keep them updated.
“ The UK continues to be guided by the latest medical advice about the coronavirus outbreak. The safety and security of British people will always be our top priority. ”
The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said earlier on Tuesday that UK officials were attempting to identify how many want to leave from Hubei province, where the virus began, centred around the provincial capital of Wuhan.
Britons were being asked to contact the consulate if they want to be airlifted, Shapps said, as British citizens expressed frustration at what was said to be a lack of communication and contrasted the UK response unfavourably with the rapid reaction of other states to airlift their nationals.
Many British nationals on social media were also discussing rumours that an announcement about flights would be made within hours.
“ We don’ t have a list of people in the region so we keep on putting the message out, ” Shapps told Sky News, which reported that Britain and China would work on a possible evacuation of UK citizens from Hubei in the next few days.
“ Not everybody wants to be repatriated but we are working on arrangements with other international colleagues to do that. ”
Covid-19 is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
In Wuhan, some UK citizens complained of what they described as a lack of clarity on the part of the British government, but there was also confusion about what Britain’ s departure from the European Union would mean in terms of any partnerships with other EU states.
“ People want to know if there is permission from the Chinese government for the flights to leave, ” Kathleen Bell told the Guardian.
She had yet to contact a Foreign Office helpline number but added that Britons on social medial had been gathering lists of names themselves in recent days.
“ One of the deciding factors for a lot of people though is whether they will be allowed to bring their Chinese spouses or children with them. ”
The Twitter account of Britain’ s embassy in Beijing, UK in China, has been posting the numbers for a 24-hour helpline that British citizens in Hubei can call.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
As almost 1,300 new cases were confirmed on Monday in China and the death toll rose to more than 100, the latest official advice in the UK is for anyone travelling from the affected areas of China to isolate themselves regardless of whether they have symptoms. Those who feel unwell are to be quarantined.
Peter Openshaw, professor of medicine at Imperial College London and a former adviser to the government on the Sars pandemic, said “ every possible precaution ” needed to be taken and predicted that self-quarantine at home was likely to be part of the response in Britain.
“ It’ s undoubted that this is something that we need to be very concerned about. I don’ t think we need to panic but we need to be very concerned, ” he told the BBC’ s Today programme.
Asked about whether the National Health Service had the necessary resources to deal with the crisis, Openshaw added: “ I think there is going to have to be a lot of self-quarantine and this is part of the government policy, that people should quarantine themselves at home while results are awaited.
“ There are many things that we don’ t know at the moment and a particular concern at the moment is that transmission may be occurring among people who are not symptomatic. The science on that is not really very strong. We need to know a lot more about the asymptomatic disease. ” | general |
La geopolítica de la memoria del Holocausto by Dominique Moisi | PARÍS – El 75.º aniversario de la liberación de Auschwitz por el Ejército Rojo fue una fecha teñida de angustia y tristeza. El antisemitismo campa otra vez a sus anchas por el mundo, como si el tiempo hubiera evaporado las enseñanzas del Holocausto; peor aún, como si nunca se hubieran integrado a la conciencia colectiva.
Este crimen sin precedentes, perpetrado por una de las sociedades más avanzadas y cultivadas de la Tierra, fue el ejemplo más extremo de los horrores que los seres humanos pueden infligirse mutuamente. Movidas por una mezcla de miedo y odio, las personas pueden convertirse en monstruos.
El actual resurgimiento del populismo y del nacionalismo acrecienta la importancia de conmemorar a las víctimas de Auschwitz. Sin embargo, a 75 años de lo sucedido, dos amenazas se ciernen sobre el deber de recordar: la instrumentalización política del Holocausto y la natural propensión de los seres humanos a olvidar el pasado o volverse indiferentes al sufrimiento ajeno.
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Writing for PS since 2005 176 Commentaries
Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.
A new Polish law criminalizes blaming Poles for any wrongdoing against other nations. But the move only serves to highlight the fact that some Poles were complicit in crimes against Jews, while jeopardizing the country's relationship with its three most important allies: the US, Germany, and Ukraine.
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Die Geopolitik des Holocaust-Gedenkens by Dominique Moisi | PARIS – Der 75. Jahrestag der Befreiung von Auschwitz durch die Rote Armee ist ein Anlass, der von Furcht wie von Trauer geprägt ist. Der Antisemitismus hat sich weltweit kraftvoll zurückgemeldet, so als hätten die Lehren aus dem Holocaust sich im Laufe der Zeit in Luft aufgelöst – oder schlimmer noch, als hätten sie sich nie völlig in unser kollektives Bewusstsein eingefügt.
Dieses von einer der fortschrittlichsten und kultiviertesten Gesellschaften der Welt begangene nie dagewesene Verbrechen war das extremste Beispiel des Grauens, das Menschen einander zufügen können. Angetrieben durch eine Kombination aus Furcht und Hass, können wir uns zu Ungeheuern entwickeln.
Das aktuelle Wiedererstarken des Populismus und Nationalismus macht es umso wichtiger, der Opfer von Auschwitz zu gedenken. Doch 75 Jahre später ist die Pflicht zur Erinnerung gleich doppelt bedroht: durch die politische Instrumentalisierung des Holocaust und durch die natürliche Neigung der Menschen, die Vergangenheit zu vergessen oder gleichgültig gegenüber dem Leid anderer zu werden.
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Writing for PS since 2005 176 Commentaries
Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.
A new Polish law criminalizes blaming Poles for any wrongdoing against other nations. But the move only serves to highlight the fact that some Poles were complicit in crimes against Jews, while jeopardizing the country's relationship with its three most important allies: the US, Germany, and Ukraine.
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The Geopolitics of Holocaust Memory by Dominique Moisi | The 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz comes at a time when populism, nationalism, and anti-Semitism are again on the rise. The duty to remember the Holocaust is threatened both by its political instrumentalization, and by the natural human proclivity to forget the past or become indifferent to the suffering of others.
PARIS – The 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by the Red Army is an occasion marked by angst as well as sadness. Anti-Semitism is back with a vengeance around the world, as if the lessons of the Holocaust had evaporated with time – or, even worse, had never been fully integrated into our collective consciousness.
This unprecedented crime, perpetrated by one of the most advanced and cultivated societies on Earth, was the most extreme example of the horrors humans can inflict on one another. When pushed by a combination of fear and hatred, people can become monsters.
The current resurgence of populism and nationalism makes it all the more important to commemorate the victims of Auschwitz. But, 75 years on, the duty to remember is doubly threatened: by the political instrumentalization of the Holocaust, and by the natural human proclivity to forget the past or become indifferent to the suffering of others.
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Writing for PS since 2005 176 Commentaries
Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.
A new Polish law criminalizes blaming Poles for any wrongdoing against other nations. But the move only serves to highlight the fact that some Poles were complicit in crimes against Jews, while jeopardizing the country's relationship with its three most important allies: the US, Germany, and Ukraine.
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الجغرافيا السياسية لذكرى المحرقة النازية by Dominique Moisi | تميزت مناسبة الذكرى الخامسة والسبعين لتحرير معسكر أوشفيتز على يد الجيش الأحمر بالغضب والحزن. لقد عادت معاداة السامية بقوة في جميع أنحاء العالم، كما لو أن دروس المحرقة النازية قد تلاشت مع مرور الزمن - أو ما هو أسوأ، أنها لم تُدمج بالكامل في وعينا الجماعي.
كانت هذه الجريمة الغير مسبوقة والتي ارتكبتها واحدة من أكثر المجتمعات تقدما وتطوراً في العالم المثال الأكثر تطرفًا على الفظائع التي يمكن أن يلحقها الناس ببعضهم البعض. عندما يدفعهم مزيج من الخوف والكراهية، يمكن أن يصبح الناس وحوشًا.
إن الصعود الحالي للشعبوية والقومية يجعل من المهم للغاية إحياء ذكرى ضحايا معسكر أوشفيتز النازي. ولكن بعد مرور 75 عامًا، أصبح واجب إحياء هذه الذكرى مُهددًا بشكل كبير، وذلك من خلال الاستغلال السياسي للمحرقة النازية والنزعة الإنسانية الطبيعية إلى نسيان الماضي أو عدم الاكتراث بمعاناة الآخرين.
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Writing for PS since 2005 176 Commentaries
Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.
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Optimising Performance and Risk | The transition from LIBOR to RFR has brought challenges for structured products. There are still legacy IBOR products to consider and at the same time the pricing and risk systems need to be upgraâ¦
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We are interested in examining the performance of an investment adjusted to its risk. In this chapter, we define the main processes necessary for optimising performance and risk when developing a successful systematic energy trading model. These include considerations surrounding the choice of optimisation parameters, based on our understanding of performance and risk, incorporating realistic trading assumptions regarding, for example, commissions, slippage, trading volume and liquidity.
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Coronavirus: China mask producers work overtime to meet demand | Chinese companies are working overtime to produce protective face masks amid soaring demand caused by the country’ s coronavirus outbreak.
Five of the 12 main mask-producing companies based in Guangdong province have resumed production after pausing for the lunar new year holiday, the business publication First Financial reported on Tuesday.
It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. The World Health Organization ( WHO) has declared it a pandemic.
According to the WHO, the most common symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, tiredness and a dry cough. Some patients may also have a runny nose, sore throat, nasal congestion and aches and pains or diarrhoea. Some people report losing their sense of taste and/or smell. About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
About one in six people, the WHO says, become seriously ill. The elderly and people with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, or chronic respiratory conditions, are at a greater risk of serious illness from Covid-19.
In the UK, the National health Service ( NHS) has identified the specific symptoms to look for as experiencing either:
As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work, and there is currently no vaccine. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system.
Medical advice varies around the world - with many countries imposing travel bans and lockdowns to try and prevent the spread of the virus. In many place people are being told to stay at home rather than visit a doctor of hospital in person. Check with your local authorities.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days. If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
China’ s national health commission confirmed human-to-human transmission in January. As of 31 March, more than 938,000 people have been infected in more than 170 countries, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
There have been over 47,200 deaths globally. Just over 3,200 of those deaths have occurred in mainland China. Italy has been worst affected, with over 13,100 fatalities, and there have been over 9,300 deaths in Spain. The US now has more confirmed cases than any other country - more than 216,000. Many of those who have died had underlying health conditions, which the coronavirus complicated.
More than 194,000 people are recorded as having recovered from the coronavirus.
Guangdong has implemented a province-wide order for everyone to wear masks in public places or face unspecified fines. Videos have circulated of unmasked metro riders being ejected forcibly by security staff.
Search stats on Baidu, China’ s main search engine, revealed there had been 2m queries for the term “ not wearing masks can get you fined ” as of Tuesday morning.
On Monday, footage emerged showing a scramble for masks at the gate of a factory in Jiujiang in Jiangxi province.
Of more concern is the ability to get masks and other medical supplies to hospitals and medical staff in quarantined areas of Hubei, the province where the outbreak began. A report from People’ s Daily on Monday indicated that masks were in short supply at Wuhan’ s No 7 hospital.
Patrick Brogan, a Briton who has been in Wuhan since 10 January and is now stuck, said there were shortages of masks there but that his girlfriend’ s father was able to pick up a box before supplies dwindled.
“ We are using scuba goggles if and when we have to go out again, it’ s better than nothing, ” the 30-year-old from Reading said.
Meimei, from Shenzhen, who did not want her full name used, said she had been trying to order masks from the US through online shops such as Amazon to distribute to people across China, but supplies are running short there too.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
Many countries are now enforcing or recommending curfews or lockdowns. Check with your local authorities for up-to-date information about the situation in your area.
In the UK, NHS advice is that anyone with symptoms should stay at home for at least 7 days.
If you live with other people, they should stay at home for at least 14 days, to avoid spreading the infection outside the home.
“ It is difficult because California is having a very severe flu season, ” she said. “ I heard that many others are asking friends abroad to buy masks but it is very difficult. ”
Meimei said she had heard supplies to Wuhan were improving but that other areas of Hubei were short.
Shenzhen Airlines dispatched a flight to Wuhan with about 100 medical personnel and 10 tons of medical gear on Tuesday, according to Meimei, who is friends with one of the cabin crew on the flight.
Demand for face masks and hand sanitising liquid has soared across the region. Stocks of masks ran out quickly at outlets of South Korea’ s biggest 24-hour convenience store, CU, at airports, bus terminals and other transportation hubs. In Taiwan, the government said there were enough masks and that daily production capacity of 1.88 face masks could be boosted to 2.44m to meet any spike in demand.
Everyday use of surgical masks, once mainly confined to Japan and parts of China affected by major dust storms or smog, has expanded in recent years, mainly because of worsening air pollution. In the Philippines, which has reported no cases of the virus, the recent eruptions of the Taal volcano have prompted many to wear masks to protect against ash.
The Australian government has told doctors and staff at GP surgeries to wear face masks when seeing patients who may be carrying the virus, and said it was prepared to use a national stockpile to make sure there are enough to go around.
Jin Wei, a Chinese student studying in Melbourne, told the Guardian he and several of his friends had bought masks to send home to family in China. “ It is still possible to buy the masks online, but many of the outlets in China are running out of stock, ” he said.Wing Kuang, a Melbourne University student from China, said many pharmacies in the city had run out of masks when she tried to purchase some last week.
Despite all the concern about masks, Dr Maia Majumder, a faculty member at Harvard Medical School who has studied Sars and Mers outbreaks, has said mask use is not as important as many people are making it out to be, particularly for most healthy people.
“ For healthy folks who are around other healthy folks, the first line of defence remains hand-washing with soap, coughing into the crook of one’ s arm instead of your hands, and avoiding contact with mucus membranes [ of the mouth, nose, or eyes ], ” Majumder said.
“ Surgical masks, however, are wise to wear for those who’ re exhibiting respiratory symptoms or those who live with people who do. ”
Additional reporting by Else Kennedy in Melbourne | general |
Facebook, Ford among firms banning China travel after outbreak |
Facebook, Microsoft and other high-profile companies have told their employees not to travel to China as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread.
The Wuhan outbreak has
claimed more than 100 lives
and caused corporations across China to
shut down operations
. Now, a slew of companies are limiting business trips to the country, with some telling their employees to avoid coming to work if they 've visited China recently.
Facebook told its employees to suspend non-essential travel to the mainland, in line with guidance Monday from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC's level 3 warning, its highest-degree alert, cautioned travelers to refrain from going to China. The social media giant also told employees who 'd recently returned from the country to work from home for an undetermined period of time.
Goldman Sachs took the same steps as Facebook. Microsoft also directed employees to defer trips and advised staff in China to work from home. The virus hadn't affected any of the software firm's employees as of Tuesday.
Google also restricted travel to mainland China and Hong Kong. The tech company confirmed its offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen -- as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan -- had been closed for the Lunar New Year festival, and the company is extending the closures in light of the outbreak.
Read More
Meanwhile, Ford banned travel to, from and inside China, telling employees who had traveled there to quarantine themselves for 14 days after returning.
At Johnson & Johnson, employees can only travel to China for business critical situations and need approval from senior leadership, a spokesperson said. The company told staff returning from China to countries such as the U.S. to expect increased scrutiny, also asking them to work from home if they were coming back from Hubei Province, where Wuhan is located.
Japanese car manufacturer Nissan is reportedly evacuating employees from its Wuhan-based operations. A spokesperson for the company told CNN Business that `` Japanese expatriates and their family members in Wuhan will be returned to Japan on the Japanese government's charter flight, excluding some who will remain. ''
On Thursday, a GM spokesperson told CNN Business that none of its employees had contracted the virus, and that it had restricted trips to China with exceptions for `` business critical needs. '' The representative added that its offices and plants in the country have been closed since Jan. 24 for the traditional Lunar New Year festival.
UK bank Standard Chartered also limited travel to China, telling employees to limit face-to-face meetings as well as any work in China and Hong Kong. It's also offering workers guidance on how to disinfect buildings and recognize the virus ' symptoms.
As of Tuesday,
106 people had died from the virus and 4,610 had contracted it
, according to Chinese health authorities. The spread of the disease prompted
Hong Kong to close its borders
with the mainland, and it has led businesses such as Starbucks and McDonald's to shutter stores across China. The coffee company said Tuesday it was
closing over half
of its roughly 4,300 shops in the country.
Starbucks and McDonald's to shut down operations in Wuhan. The Chinese government has imposed travel restrictions on about 60 million people.
Johnson & Johnson is donating 300 boxes of its HIV medication Prezcobix to the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, which requested it after a research agency recommended testing to see if the drug could treat the coronavirus, the spokesperson said.
Tech giants are also chipping in, with Microsoft saying it would donate 1 million renminbi to the Hubei Red Cross Foundation for relief efforts and Google's charitable arm giving $ 250,000 to the Chinese Red Cross.
Five cases of the virus have been confirmed in the U.S., but the CDC said the virus was not spreading in the country and the public health risk was low.
--
CNN's Donie O'Sullivan, Kate Trafecante, Eoin McSweeney and Cristina Alesci contributed to this report. | general |
Starbucks has closed more than half of its Chinese stores because of coronavirus |
Starbucks has closed more than half of its roughly 4,300 Chinese stores, as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread in the country.
The company said Tuesday it is continuing to `` monitor and modify the operating hours of all of our stores in the market, '' in light of the outbreak. `` This is expected to be temporary, '' Starbucks added.
Over the weekend,
the company said
that it was closing shops and suspending delivery services in the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and the wider Hubei Province.
John Culver, the company's international president, said that the `` situation accelerated '' over the past few weeks, adding that Starbucks is evaluating closures `` each and every day. '' Stores that are open still offer delivery but may have a more limited menu, based on supply chain constraints, and different hours, he said.
The Wuhan Coronavirus
has so far killed more than 100 people and infected thousands
. It has reached more than 17 countries.
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A man walks past a Starbucks coffee shop in Beijing in 2018.
CEO Kevin Johnson promised transparency into the company's response to the `` extraordinary circumstances, '' in a statement Tuesday.
`` We remain optimistic and committed to the long-term opportunity in China, '' he added.
Johnson noted in a call with investors that Starbucks is prioritizing the health of customers and employees and working with officials to help contain the virus.
An important market
China is one of
Starbucks
(
SBUX
)
' leading growth markets, along with the United States. In the first quarter, sales at Chinese stores open at least 13 months grew 3%. McDonald's has been expanding rapidly in the country, opening about 600 stores last year. Digital sales grew in China as well, jumping to 15% of total revenue — up from 10% the past quarter. About 9% came from delivery, and 6% from pickup and mobile orders.
It's not clear how the closures will affect business, the company said. China accounted for 10% of global revenues in the quarter. Still, Starbucks does expect to take a hit in the second quarter and fiscal year 2020, and plans to update its guidance once it can better evaluate the impact. The company's stock dipped slightly after the bell Tuesday.
Starbucks said that prior to the closures, it was expecting to raise its financial forecast for the year because of its strong first-quarter results. Sales at US stores open at least a year grew 6% during that period.
Global companies
have been responding to the outbreak
with store closures and increased safety measures.
McDonald's
(
MCD
)
said on Friday
that it had closed locations in five cities to and from which the Chinese government restricted travel. McDonald's said open stores were following strict hygiene practices.
KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants also closed in the city of Wuhan. And
Disney
(
DIS
)
has closed its parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
New menu items
To help bring in US customers, Starbucks is leaning into plant-based dairy and protein alternatives.
Earlier this month, Starbucks
added an oat milk latte to the menu
in about 1,300 locations in the Midwest. Roz Brewer, Starbucks ' chief operating officer, said that more alternative dairy drinks are coming.
Starbucks is bringing oat milk lattes to the Midwest
And the chain is introducing a breakfast sandwich made with a plant-based patty in the United States and Canada this year, she added.
— CNN Business ' Sherisse Pham contributed to this report. | general |
Wuhan coronavirus: Death toll tops 100 as infection rate accelerates |
Hong Kong announced Tuesday that it was closing many of its border crossings with mainland China in a bid to contain
the Wuhan coronavirus
, as the
death toll from the outbreak topped 100
, with more than 4,600 cases in the mainland.
The virus has also spread globally to more than 17 countries. On Tuesday, experts from the German Robert-Koch-Institute said they believed that a man who tested positive for coronavirus in Germany is the first case of human-to-human infection in Europe.
United Airlines suspends some flights between US and China as coronavirus spreads
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong chief executive, told a news conference that the closure of crossings into the semi-autonomous Chinese city would be `` temporary. '' Lam added that the city was also slashing the number of tourist visas it issues to visitors from mainland China, and halving the number of inbound flights from the mainland.
Authorities in Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the outbreak, earlier said an additional 1,300 cases had been confirmed, bringing the total in the region to over 2,700. The majority of those are still in hospital, with more than 125 in critical condition. Between Sunday and Monday,
there was a 65% jump
in the number of reported cases in mainland China, from around 2,700 to over 4,500.
Elsewhere in China, cases have been confirmed in every province and territory except for Tibet, which this week announced the indefinite closure of all tourist attractions and a mandatory two-week quarantine for all travelers entering the region.
Read More
The move to close off Hong Kong comes after intense pressure from lawmakers and medical unions, one of which had threatened to strike if the border was not shut.
On Monday, the US Centers for Disease Control ( CDC)
issued a level 3 alert
warning against `` all nonessential travel to China '' -- its highest alert on a scale of 1 to 3.
`` There is an ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel ( new) coronavirus that can be spread from person to person, '' the CDC said in a statement, warning `` there is limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas. ''
Worldwide concern
More than a dozen countries around the world have confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus, as authorities struggle to stop its spread.
Across Asia, numerous countries have put in extra screening at airports and warned citizens to avoid travel to China. To China's north, neighboring Mongolia
has imposed
stringent border checks on travelers coming into the country, while Hong Kong earlier banned all visitors from Wuhan.
Indonesia and the Philippines have both introduced extra restrictions on Chinese tourists, while Japan has upgraded its response, allowing authorities to `` force the suspicious cases for hospitalization and testing. ''
Three cases of Wuhan coronavirus were identified in France on Friday and on Tuesday German officials confirmed that a 33-year-old man who had not traveled to China tested positive for the virus.
Speaking at a meeting with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres Monday, China's ambassador to the UN said the country has `` full capability and confidence in winning the battle against the epidemic. ''
`` Putting the interests of the people first, China has taken rapid and strong measures, putting in place a nationwide prevention and control mechanism, '' Ambassador Zhang Jun said.
`` China has been working with the international community in the spirit of openness, transparency and scientific coordination. With a great sense of responsibility, China is sparing no effort in curbing the spread of disease and saving lives. Now is a crucial moment, and China has full capability and confidence in winning the battle against the epidemic. ''
Some 60 million people have been placed under travel restrictions in Hubei, with almost all movement in and out of Wuhan itself stopped and much of the city on lockdown.
Officials have also
cracked down on the trade of wild animals
, after the Wuhan coronavirus was linked to a seafood market selling exotic live mammals, including bats and civet cats, which have previously been linked to the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Rapid spread
The first cases of the coronavirus were detected in Wuhan in mid-December. Since then the number of confirmed cases has increased a thousandfold, and infections have been reported worldwide.
Hospitals in Wuhan are already massively overstretched, and hundreds of emergency medical personnel have been dispatched to the city to help. Two new hospitals are also being built on the city's outskirts, due to be operational by next week.
Wuhan and Hubei officials have faced criticism for apparently downplaying the danger of the virus in the early weeks of the outbreak. There was a marked shift in the handling of the crisis once the national government got involved on January 22.
Despite the colossal effort -- and potential social and economic cost -- of effectively quarantining Hubei, it appears that this has come too late to stop the virus ' spread. By the time Wuhan introduced even basic screening of travelers leaving the city, the virus had been reported in Japan, Thailand and South Korea, and spread to most of the rest of China.
Part of the problem is that the virus can apparently be spread before symptoms appear, according to China's health minister, Ma Xiaowei.
`` It means the infection is much more contagious than we originally thought, '' William Schaffner, a longtime adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told CNN. `` This is worse than we anticipated. ''
While the current outbreak does not appear to be as deadly as SARS, which killed over 700 people worldwide, it may be spreading more rapidly. That could be due to being more contagious, or the increased interconnectedness of both China and the world than in 2003.
As of mid-March 2003
, roughly a month after the World Health Organization ( WHO) was alerted to SARS by Chinese authorities, and three months after the first cases were detected in China, the number of confirmed cases worldwide stood at around 3,200, with 159 confirmed deaths.
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Medical staff wearing protective suits ride down an escalator at Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport on Wednesday, March 18.
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Hasidic Jewish men take part in a
`` social distancing '' minyan
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A patient in a biocontainment unit is carried on a stretcher in Rome on March 17.
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A pedestrian walks a dog through a quiet street in New York on March 17.
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People gather to collect free face masks in New Delhi on March 17.
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Dermot Hickey, left, and Phillip Vega ask a pedestrian in New York to take their picture on a thinly trafficked Fifth Avenue on March 17. Many streets across the world are much more bare as people distance themselves from others. In the United States, the White House has advised people
not to gather in groups of more than 10.
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Students at the Attarkiah Islamic School wear face masks during a ceremony in Thailand's southern province of Narathiwat on March 17.
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People wait outside a Woolworths store in Sunbury, Australia on March 17. Australian supermarket chains announced special shopping hours for the elderly and people with disabilities so that they can shop in less crowded aisles.
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A member of Spain's Military Emergencies Unit carries out a general disinfection at the Malaga airport on Monday, March 16.
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Displaced families near Atme, Syria, attend a workshop aimed at spreading awareness about the coronavirus.
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French President Emmanuel Macron is seen on a screen in Paris as he announces new coronavirus containment measures on March 16.
France has been put on lockdown,
and all nonessential outings are outlawed and can draw a fine of up to €135 ( $ 148). Macron also promised to support French businesses by guaranteeing €300 billion worth of loans and suspending rent and utility bills owed by small companies.
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A police officer checks the temperatures of bus passengers at a checkpoint in Manila, Philippines, on March 16.
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Flowers are stored prior to their destruction at a flower auction in Aalsmeer, Netherlands, on March 16. Lower demand due to the coronavirus outbreak is threatening the Dutch horticultural sector, forcing the destruction of products.
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Two nuns greet neighbors from their balcony in Turin, Italy, on Sunday, March 15.
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Pope Francis, inside the Church of San Marcello in Rome's city center,
prays at a famous crucifix
that believers claim helped to save Romans from the plague in 1522.
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Passengers wait for their flights at Marrakesh Airport in Morocco on March 15.
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US Vice President Mike Pence takes a question during a White House briefing about the coronavirus on March 15.
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A Sea World employee sprays disinfectant in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Saturday, March 14.
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People wait in line to go through customs at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on March 14. Travelers returning from Europe say they were
being made to wait for hours
at US airports, often in close quarters, as personnel screened them for the coronavirus.
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Hundreds of people lined up to enter a Costco in Novato, California, on March 14. Many people have been stocking up on food, toilet paper and other items. As a response to
panic buying,
retailers in the United States and Canada have started limiting the number of toilet paper that customers can buy in one trip.
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A member of the White House physician's office takes a media member's temperature in the White House briefing room on March 14. It was ahead of a news conference with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence.
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Reporters in Arlington, Virginia, sit approximately 4 feet apart during a briefing by Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie on Friday, March 13.
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People walk past a closed Broadway theater on March 13 after New York canceled all gatherings over 500 people.
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Body temperatures are scanned as people enter the Buddhist temple Wat Pho in Bangkok, Thailand, on March 13.
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A Costco customer stands by two shopping carts in Richmond, California, on March 13.
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A teacher works in an empty classroom at the Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, Spain.
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A woman looks at an empty bread aisle in Antwerp, Belgium, on March 13.
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Employees of the Greek Parliament wear plastic gloves ahead of the swearing-in ceremony for Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou.
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A motorcyclist drives through disinfectant sprayed in Jammu, India, on March 13.
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Workers prepare to construct an additional building on a hospital on the outskirts of Moscow.
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Paul Boyer, head equipment manager of the NHL's Detroit Red Wings, wheels out equipment bags in Washington on Thursday, March 12. The NHL is among the sports leagues that have suspended their seasons.
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Students leave Glacier Peak High School in Snohomish, Washington, on March 12. Beginning the following day, schools in the Snohomish school district planned to be closed through April 24.
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An Uber Eats delivery biker stands at a deserted Piazza di Spagna in Rome.
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People at a railway station in Seoul, South Korea, watch a live broadcast of US President Donald Trump on March 12. Trump announced that, in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, he would
sharply restrict travel
from more than two dozen European countries.
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Workers in protective suits disinfect Istanbul's Dolmabahce Palace on March 11.
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A person wearing a face mask walks outside of a shopping mall in Beijing on March 11.
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Police officers restrain the relative of an inmate outside the Sant'Anna jail in Modena, Italy, on March 9.
Riots broke out
in several Italian jails after visits were suspended to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
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Medical staff in Wuhan, China, celebrate after all coronavirus patients were discharged from a temporary hospital on March 9.
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 9.
Stocks plummeted
as coronavirus worries and an oil price race to the bottom weighed on global financial markets.
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Rescuers search for victims at the site of a
collapsed hotel
in Quanzhou, China, on March 8. The hotel was being used as a coronavirus quarantine center.
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The Grand Princess cruise ship, carrying at least 21 people who tested positive for coronavirus, is seen off the coast of San Francisco on March 8.
The ship was being held at sea.
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Sumo wrestlers attend a tournament in Osaka, Japan, that was being held behind closed doors because of the coronavirus outbreak.
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A couple rides a bicycle at a park in Seoul, South Korea, on March 7.
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A volunteer from Blue Sky Rescue uses fumigation equipment to disinfect a residential compound in Beijing on March 5.
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Airmen from the California National Guard drop coronavirus testing kits down to the
Grand Princess cruise ship
off the coast of California on March 5.
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Municipal workers are seen at the Kaaba, inside Mecca's Grand Mosque. Saudi Arabia emptied Islam's holiest site for sterilization over coronavirus fears, an unprecedented move after the kingdom suspended the year-round Umrah pilgrimage.
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Passengers react as a worker wearing a protective suit disinfects the departure area of a railway station in Hefei, China, on March 4.
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Teachers at the Nagoya International School in Japan conduct an online class for students staying at home as a precaution against the spread of coronavirus.
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Soldiers spray disinfectant throughout a shopping street in Seoul.
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A Muslim worshipper attends a mass prayer against coronavirus in Dakar, Senegal, on March 4. It was after cases were confirmed in the country.
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People wear face masks in New York's Times Square on March 3. New York reported its first case of coronavirus two days earlier.
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A security guard stands on the Shibuya Sky observation deck in Tokyo on March 3.
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US President Donald Trump, flanked by Vice President Mike Pence, left, and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, speaks during a meeting with pharmaceutical executives and the White House coronavirus task force on March 2. Throughout
the meeting,
Trump was hyperfocused on pressing industry leaders in the room for a timeline for a coronavirus vaccine and treatment. But experts at the table -- from the administration and the pharmaceutical industry -- repeatedly emphasized that a vaccine can't be rushed to market before it's been declared safe for the public.
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Medical staff stand outside a hospital in Daegu, South Korea, on March 1.
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Healthcare workers transfer a patient at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, on March 1. The long-term care facility is linked to confirmed coronavirus cases.
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits a London laboratory of the Public Health England National Infection Service.
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Tomoyuki Sugano, a professional baseball player on the Yomiuri Giants, throws a pitch in an empty Tokyo Dome during a preseason game on February 29. Fans have been barred from preseason games to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
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Commuters wearing masks make their way to work during morning rush hour at the Shinagawa train station in Tokyo on February 28.
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Medical staff transport a coronavirus patient within the Red Cross hospital in Wuhan on February 28.
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Inter Milan plays Ludogorets in an empty soccer stadium in Milan, Italy, on February 27. The match
was ordered to be played behind closed doors
as Italian authorities continue to grapple with the coronavirus outbreak.
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A bank clerk disinfects banknotes in China's Sichuan province on February 26.
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A child wearing a protective face mask rides on a scooter in an empty area in Beijing.
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A Catholic devotee wears a face mask as he is sprinkled with ash during Ash Wednesday services in Paranaque, Philippines, on February 26.
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People disinfect Qom's Masumeh shrine in Tehran, Iran, on February 25.
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A worker in Daegu stacks plastic buckets containing medical waste from coronavirus patients on February 24.
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Paramedics carry a stretcher off an ambulance in Hong Kong on February 23.
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People attend a professional soccer match in Kobe, Japan, on February 23. To help stop the spread of the novel coronavirus, the soccer club Vissel Kobe
told fans not to sing, chant or wave flags
in the season opener against Yokohama FC.
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A team of volunteers disinfects a pedestrian bridge in Bangkok, Thailand.
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A man rides his bike in Beijing on February 23.
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Hospital personnel in Codogno, Italy, carry new beds inside the hospital on February 21. The hospital is hosting some people who have been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus.
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Doctors look at a CT scan of a lung at a hospital in Xiaogan, China, on February 20.
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A sales clerk wears a mask as she waits for customers at a hat shop in Beijing on February 18.
Small companies that help drive China's economy
are worried about how much damage
the coronavirus outbreak will cause to business.
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Buses carrying American passengers arrive at the Haneda Airport in Tokyo on February 17. The passengers
were leaving the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship
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A medical worker rests at the isolation ward of the Red Cross hospital in Wuhan on February 16.
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Authorities watch as the Westerdam cruise ship approaches a port in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, on February 13. Despite having no confirmed cases of coronavirus on board, the Westerdam was refused port by four other Asian countries before being allowed to dock in Cambodia.
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A worker has his temperature checked on a shuttered commercial street in Beijing on February 12.
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Beds are made in the Wuhan Sports Center, which has been converted into a temporary hospital.
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A child rides a scooter past a police officer wearing protective gear outside the Hong Mei House in Hong Kong on February 11. More than 100 people evacuated the housing block after four residents in two different apartments tested positive for the coronavirus.
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Relatives of quarantined passengers wave at the Diamond Princess cruise ship as it leaves a port in Yokohama, Japan, to dump wastewater and generate potable water. Dozens of people on the ship
were infected with coronavirus.
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The Deneway branch of the County Oak Medical Centre is closed amid coronavirus fears in Brighton, England, on February 11. Several locations in and around Brighton were quarantined after
a man linked to several coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom
came into contact with health-care workers and members of the public.
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A police officer, left, wears protective gear as he guards a cordon at the Hong Mei House in Hong Kong on February 11.
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A worker wears a protective suit as he waits to screen people entering an office building in Beijing on February 10. China's workforce is
slowly coming back to work
after the coronavirus outbreak forced many parts of the country to extend the Lunar New Year holiday by more than a week.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping has his temperature checked during an appearance in Beijing on February 10.
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Photojournalists wearing face masks take photos of a bus carrying passengers after they disembarked from the World Dream cruise ship in Hong Kong on February 9.
More than 5,300 people were quarantined on two cruise ships
off Hong Kong and Japan.
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People participating in a Lunar New Year Parade in New York City hold signs reading, `` Wuhan stay strong! '' on February 9.
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A shopper walks past empty shelves at a grocery store in Hong Kong on February 9. China's Ministry of Commerce
encouraged supermarkets and grocery stores
to resume operations as the country's voluntary or mandatory quarantines began to take an economic toll.
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A worker wearing a protective suit uses a machine to disinfect a business establishment in Shanghai, China, on February 9.
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Workers in protective gear walk near the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama on February 7.
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People in Hong Kong attend a vigil February 7 for
whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang.
Li, 34, died in Wuhan after contracting the virus while treating a patient.
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A woman grieves while paying tribute to Li at Li's hospital in Wuhan on February 7.
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The Anthem of the Seas cruise ship is seen docked at the Cape Liberty Cruise Port in Bayonne, New Jersey, on February 7. Passengers were to be screened for coronavirus as a precaution, an official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told CNN.
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A light installation is displayed by striking members of the Hospital Authority Employees Alliance and other activists at the Hospital Authority building in Hong Kong on February 7.
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Passengers are seen on the deck of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, docked at the Yokohama Port on February 7.
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Flight attendants wearing face masks make their way through Don Mueang Airport in Bangkok on February 7.
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Workers check sterile medical gloves at a latex-product manufacturer in Nanjing, China, on February 6.
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A woman wears a protective mask as she shops in a Beijing market on February 6.
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This aerial photo shows the Leishenshan Hospital that is being built in Wuhan to handle coronavirus patients.
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A passenger shows a note from the World Dream cruise ship docked at the Kai Tak cruise terminal in Hong Kong on February 5.
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A mask is seen on a statue in Beijing on February 5.
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An ambulance stops at a traffic light in front of the Grand Lisboa Hotel in Macao. The virus turned China's gambling mecca
into a ghost town.
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A dog in Beijing wears a makeshift mask constructed from a paper cup.
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Striking hospital workers in Hong Kong demand the closure of the border with mainland China on February 4.
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The Diamond Princess cruise ship sits anchored in quarantine off the port of Yokohama on February 4. It arrived a day earlier with passengers feeling ill.
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A medical worker wearing protective gear waits to take the temperature of people entering Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong on February 4.
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Medical workers in protective suits help transfer patients to a newly completed field hospital in Wuhan.
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People wearing protective overalls talk outside a Wuhan hotel housing people in isolation on February 3.
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A man stands in front of TV screens broadcasting a speech by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam on February 3. Lam said the city would shut almost all border-control points to the mainland.
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A colleague sprays disinfectant on a doctor in Wuhan on February 3.
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Commuters in Tokyo walk past an electric board displaying dismal stock prices on February 3, the first business day after the Chinese New Year. Asia's markets recorded their
worst day in years
as investors finally got a chance to react to the worsening coronavirus outbreak.
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Medical workers move a coronavirus patient into an isolation ward at the Second People's Hospital in Fuyang, China, on February 1.
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Children wear plastic bottles as makeshift masks while waiting to check in to a flight at the Beijing Capital Airport on January 30.
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Passengers in Hong Kong wear protective masks as they wait to board a train at Lo Wu Station, near the mainland border, on January 30.
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A volunteer wearing protective clothing disinfects a street in Qingdao, China, on January 29.
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Nanning residents line up to buy face masks from a medical appliance store on January 29.
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Lyu Jun, left, a member of a medical team leaving for Wuhan, says goodbye to a loved one in Urumqi, China, on January 28.
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A charter flight from Wuhan arrives at an airport in Anchorage, Alaska, on January 28. The US government chartered the plane to bring home US citizens and diplomats from the American consulate in Wuhan.
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South Korean President Moon Jae-in wears a mask to inspect the National Medical Center in Seoul on January 28.
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Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam, center, attends a news conference in Hong Kong on January 28. Lam said China will stop individual travelers to Hong Kong while closing some border checkpoints and restricting flights and train services from the mainland.
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Workers at an airport in Novosibirsk, Russia, check the temperatures of passengers who arrived from Beijing on January 28.
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Alex Azar, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, speaks during a news conference about the American public-health response.
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Two residents walk in an empty park in Wuhan on January 27. The city remained on lockdown for a fourth day.
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A person wears a protective mask, goggles and coat as he stands in a nearly empty street in Beijing on January 26.
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Medical staff members bring a patient to the Wuhan Red Cross hospital on January 25.
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People wear protective masks as they walk under Lunar New Year decorations in Beijing on January 25.
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Construction workers in Wuhan begin to work on a special hospital to deal with the outbreak on January 24.
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Dr. Allison Arwady, commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health, speaks to reporters on January 24 about
a patient in Chicago
who had been diagnosed with the coronavirus. The patient was the second in the United States to be diagnosed with the illness.
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A couple kisses goodbye as they travel for the Lunar New Year holiday in Beijing on January 24.
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Workers manufacture protective face masks at a factory in China's Hubei Province on January 23.
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Shoppers wear masks in a Wuhan market on January 23.
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Passengers are checked by a thermography device at an airport in Osaka, Japan, on January 23.
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People wear masks while shopping for vegetables in Wuhan on January 23.
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A militia member checks the body temperature of a driver in Wuhan on January 23.
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Passengers wear masks as they arrive at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, Philippines, on January 23.
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A customer holds boxes of particulate respirators at a pharmacy in Hong Kong on January 23.
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Passengers wear masks at the high-speed train station in Hong Kong on January 23.
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A woman rides an electric bicycle in Wuhan on January 22.
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People in Guangzhou, China, wear protective masks on January 22.
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People go through a checkpoint in Guangzhou on January 22.
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Medical staff of Wuhan's Union Hospital attend a gathering on January 22.
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Health officials hold a news conference in Beijing on January 22.
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Growing fears in Hong Kong
Fears of the virus ' spread have led to calls for increased action in multiple countries and territories, not least in Hong Kong, where memories of SARS still run deep.
Effective midnight on Thursday until further notice, Lam said Hong Kong's measures also include decreasing the number of inbound buses from the mainland, and the suspension of cross-border coach services at the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau Bridge. All cross-border ferry services will also be suspended.
Operations at Hong Kong's West Kowloon Train Station -- which operates high speed rail services to the mainland -- will shut. Passenger services will also be temporarily suspended at the border crossings of Hung Hom, Sha Tau Kok, and Man Kam To.
In addition to the closing many of its borders with China, the city's government announced that government workers would be encouraged to work from home when the Lunar New Year holiday ends on Wednesday. The directive, which excluded emergency service workers and people who work for essential public services, urged the private sector to enforce similar arrangements.
The sweeping moves follow calls from one of the city's leading health experts for `` substantial draconian measures '' to limit population mobility in order to rein in the virus. Speaking at a news conference Monday, Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, warned that the number of cases could potentially double every six days in the absence of decisive government action.
`` This epidemic is growing at quite a fast rate and it's accelerating, '' said Leung, who is also the founding director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Infection Disease Epidemiology and Control in Hong Kong. He predicted the actual number of cases -- including those who are incubating the virus but not yet showing symptoms -- could be 10 times what has been reported.
Leung's team modeled two scenarios -- one with a population quarantine as has been seen in Wuhan and one without -- but found more or less identical results, because the virus has already spread to other major population centers in China, which could soon see their own self-sustaining epidemics.
Leung said the findings had concerned the team enough that it felt the need to alert the authorities and the public, predicting a peak of cases between April and May.
He added people need to prepare for a potential global pandemic -- though `` not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination... we must prepare better for it, '' he said.
CNN's David Culver, Yong Xiong, Natalie Thomas and Steven Jiang in Beijing; and Helen Regan, Pauline Lockwood, Carly Walsh, Eric Cheung, Yuli Yang, Chermaine Lee, Alexandra Lin, Isaac Yee, Angus Watson and Sophie Jeong in Hong Kong contributed reporting. | general |
The coronavirus has sent a video game about wiping out humanity to # 1 | Video game Plague Inc. has had a surge of popularity in light of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, which has infected over 4,000 people and killed over 100 with no signs of slowing. You play as a deadly pathogen in the distressingly relevant game, spreading across the globe to wipe out humanity.
Now, developer Ndemic Creations has issued a friendly reminder that while entertaining, Plague Inc. is not a scientific tool for modelling the spread of disease. It may be fun, but it won’ t save you.
“ We specifically designed the game to be realistic and informative, while not sensationalising serious real-world issues, ” read Ndemic Creations’ statement, published Jan. 23.
“ However, please remember that Plague Inc. is a game, not a scientific model and that the current coronavirus outbreak is a very real situation which is impacting a huge number of people. We would always recommend that players get their information directly from local and global health authorities. ''
I’ ve played enough plague inc to know I have to move to Iceland or Madagascar Incase this coronavirus spreads more.
— Lewis Mackenzie ( @ lewismackenz8) January 27, 2020
Though Plague Inc. was first released in 2012, Ndemic Creations said it sees an increase in players whenever there is a real outbreak of disease. The spike in interest has been so significant this time that Plague Inc.'s website was overloaded with traffic and its servers strained.
Abacus reports Plague Inc. recently became China’ s top paid iOS download, and the fifth overall when free apps are included. According to SensorTower, the game reached the top of the chart on Jan. 21 and hasn’ t dipped since.
China isn't the only country turning to the game either, with Plague Inc. holding steady as the U.S. ' top paid iOS download since Jan. 23. Player numbers for PC version Plague Inc: Evolved have also been trending upward as the coronavirus spreads, SteamCharts recording an 169 percent increase in players globally over the last 30 days. Many players ' recent reviews make reference to the coronavirus.
Speaking to Polygon in 2014, Ndemic Creations’ founder James Vaughan said the first time he saw a real world outbreak impact Plague Inc.’ s sales was during the West African Ebola outbreak that year. Downloads of Plague Inc.’ s free version increased by 50 percent during the epidemic.
“ People are curious about it and want to know more about infectious diseases, ” said Vaughn. “ Plague Inc. can play a role because it's an intelligent look at how infectious diseases can spread. ”
SEE ALSO: Ebola Author Says Outbreak Is 'Part of a Pattern ' of Emerging, Deadly Diseases
Vaughan doesn't have a medical background, having relied on online research to give the game an element of realism. Even if he did, taking medical information from a game designed to entertain is questionable at best.
However, Plague Inc. isn't entirely useless as an educational tool. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’ s Ali S. Khan noted in 2013 that the game provides a compelling method for raising awareness and teaching the public and about the spread of disease.
“ An interesting fact is that it has also become an educational tool — teachers and professors often get in touch to let me know how they used Plague Inc. to illustrate biological and economical concepts to their students, ” Vaughan told Khan.
Just don't trust it for practical pointers on how to stay safe from the coronavirus, or from any other outbreak. Go to official sources for that. | tech |
Coronavirus might put a wrench in Apple's iPhone production plans | Apple may not be able to produce as many iPhones as planned due to the coronavirus outbreak.
This is according to a report by Nikkei, which claims Apple has asked its suppliers in China to produce up to 80 million iPhones in the first half of 2020, which represents a 10 percent rise over last year's production rate. Nikkei claims 65 million of those orders are for older iPhone models, while up to 15 million orders are for the upcoming iPhone SE successor, which will likely launch in March.
However, suppliers have warned Apple that the coronavirus outbreak could affect the planned production schedule.
SEE ALSO: Report: Apple to unveil new, cheaper iPhone 'as early as March '
Nikkei says the production of the new, cheaper iPhone — likely dubbed the iPhone SE 2 — was slated to start in the third week of February. The company was also planning to boost the production of AirPods by up to 45 million units for the first half of 2020 ( Apple sold 60 million AirPods in 2019, Nikkei claims). But an unnamed executive from Apple's supply chain told the outlet that the coronavirus has created `` massive uncertainties and challenges '' for the production of iPhones and AirPods.
It's unclear to what extent the coronavirus outbreak could affect Apple's production plans. Apple relies heavily on Chinese manufacturers for both iPhone and AirPods production, so delays and shortages are not out of the question.
The deadly, novel strain of coronavirus originated in China's city of Wuhan and has so far killed 106 people and infected more than 4,500. The Chinese authorities have restricted travel in the Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which is when millions of migrant workers travel to see their families. | tech |
iPhone maker Foxconn says coronavirus outbreak won’ t affect production | Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn, which manufactures key products for countless tech companies including Apple, says it will not be adjusting any manufacturing timelines or closing its factories due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. The company, which is based in Taiwan and operates numerous factories in mainland China, said in a statement that it is monitoring the situation, but it’ s not expecting it to affect any of its “ manufacturing obligations. ”
“ Foxconn is closely monitoring the current public health challenge linked to the coronavirus and we are applying all recommended health and hygiene practices to all aspects of our operations in the affected markets. Our facilities in China are following holiday schedules and will continue to do so until all businesses have resumed standard operating hours, ” the company says. It’ s referencing the Chinese government’ s extension of the Lunar New Year holiday, a measure to try to mitigate the spread of the virus by encouraging citizens to stay home and avoid travel.
“ As a matter of policy and for reasons of commercial sensitivity, we do not comment on our specific production practices, ” the company adds, “ but we can confirm that we have measures in place to ensure that we can continue to meet all global manufacturing obligations. ”
This particular strain of the coronavirus, which health officials say originated last month in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has led to more than 100 deaths in China as of Tuesday and more than 4,500 reported cases worldwide, although a vast majority of cases are concentrated in China’ s Hubei province.
Due to China’ s massive role in global manufacturing, and the sheer volume of technology companies that rely on its factories to assemble products, the virus has also affected numerous hardware firms in Silicon Valley and beyond. Facebook, LG, and Razer have all begun limiting employee travel to China, and some companies have advised employees who recently traveled to China to work from home. Danish gaming accessory company SteelSeries tells The Verge it has “ restricted employee travel indefinitely to China. ”
Related
For Apple, which relies heavily on Foxconn for iPhone production, there is concern the coronavirus may disrupt its manufacturing timelines for upcoming smartphones and other products. Nearly every new iPhone is assembled in factories run by Foxconn’ s Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. subsidiary in Zhengzhou and by competing Taiwanese manufacturer Pegatron, which operates factories near Shanghai, according to Bloomberg.
Although both manufacturers’ operations are each hundreds of miles from Wuhan, the outbreak still poses a risk, say analysts interviewed by Bloomberg. Any minor disruption in Apple’ s sprawling and extremely complex supply chain throughout mainland China could lead to delays in production, the report states.
Apple has yet to publicly comment on the coronavirus or how it might affect any of its operations in China, where Apple employs more than 10,000 employees across retail and corporate offices.
Apple employees are also frequent fliers to China. Apple is United Airlines’ top enterprise customer due in part to Apple prepurchasing 50 business class seats on United’ s daily San Francisco to Shanghai flight. However, United said on Tuesday it would in fact begin suspending flights to China in February due to the coronavirus, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also said Tuesday it would be expanding health screenings to 20 US airports. | tech |
Facebook, Razer, and LG are restricting employee travel to China amid coronavirus outbreak | Facebook and gaming hardware maker Razer are among the first US technology companies to begin restricting travel to China amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, while South Korea’ s LG has implemented a complete ban.
Facebook is halting all non-essential employee travel to the country, and the company is also telling employees who recently returned from China to work from home, according to Bloomberg. Although Facebook is banned in China, the company does have offices in the country and uses Chinese suppliers for manufacturing its Oculus virtual reality headsets and its Portal family of video chat devices.
California-based Razer, known for making popular gaming laptops and accessories, has separately confirmed to The Verge that it is taking similar measures. “ Our company has already been restricting travel and advising employees to work from home, ” a Razer spokesperson said on Monday. Razer, like Facebook and countless other tech companies, has offices throughout China and uses Chinese suppliers to manufacturer some its hardware, which includes gaming mice and keyboards, as well as headsets and laptops.
LG has implemented a complete ban on travel to China, according to Reuters, and has advised its employees already in China on business to return home as quickly as possible.
Related
Amazon tells The Verge it is following the guidelines of the World Health Organization, but it didn’ t say whether it was restricting travel to China. Kingston’ s HyperX, another US-based popular gaming accessory brand, declined to comment. Apple, Google, and Microsoft didn’ t respond to requests for comment.
This particular instance of the coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, is part of the common mammalian virus group that in 2002 led to the SARS outbreak. Health officials believe it originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Since then, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised all US citizens to avoid nonessential travel to China by raising the travel warning to level three on Monday.
There have already been over 100 recorded deaths in China, and there have been more than 4,000 reported cases worldwide, although a vast majority have been concentrated in the Hubei province of China, of which Wuhan is the capital city. Within the last week, five cases have been confirmed in the US.
With reporting by Cameron Faulkner.
Update January 28th, 2:23AM ET: Added LG travel restrictions. | tech |
United Airlines suspends some China flights after coronavirus outbreak | United Airlines is suspending some flights to and from China because of a “ significant decline in demand ” brought on by the emerging coronavirus outbreak, the company announced on Tuesday. Flights between major US hubs and Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong will be suspended between February 1st and February 8th, CNBC reports.
United offers more flights to and from China than any other US airline. It provides about 12 flights per day between the US and China ( and Hong Kong), but that total number will decrease by about “ three or four ” per day, according to CNBC. Specifically, the company is reducing the number of flights at San Francisco, Newark, Chicago, and Washington Dulles airports.
Related
The virus, which first appeared in Wuhan, China, has killed more than 100 people in that country and infected over 4,000 people worldwide. United says it’ s suspending the flights because demand for travel between China and the US has dropped in the days since the outbreak began, rather than as part of any attempt to stop the spread. That’ s not totally surprising; both the US State Department and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told people this week to reconsider or avoid nonessential travel to China. The CDC has also expanded enhanced health screenings for the coronavirus to 20 US airports.
Other US airlines, like Delta and American, have announced that they’ re waiving fees for people who want to change their scheduled flights through the end of February. But they haven’ t suspended any flights yet.
“ We have not adjusted our flight schedule at this time, ” Curtis Blessing, a spokesperson for American Airlines, said via email. “ We are continuing to monitor the situation very closely. ” Delta Air Lines similarly said it has not made any changes to its operating schedule.
| tech |
Coronavirus Outbreak Allows Gold Prices to Break Out | This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com.
Thanks to as much as a 500-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Monday’ s trading session, it was risk-off for investors as they piled into safe havens like bonds and gold. For the latter, it allowed prices to break free to its highest level in almost six years.
Gold was on a path of bearishness after a U.S.-China “ phase one ” trade deal put the risk back into the markets. However, the latest news in the coronavirus outbreak is reinvigorating demand for the precious metal.
“ After almost three weeks of consolidation, gold has now pushed higher on risk-aversion as the Coronavirus position worsens and the markets move away from risk, ” said Rhona O’ Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA & Asia at INTL FCStone, in a daily note. “ The $ 1,590 level has come into view and resistance stands at $ 1,600. ”
Investors looking to get in on gold can look at funds like SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD) and the SPDR Gold MiniShares ( GLDM). Precious metals like gold offer investors an alternative to diversify their holdings, and like other commodities, gold will march to the beat of its own drum compared to the broader market.
Traders looking for leverage can use funds like the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF ( NUGT), VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ( GDX) and the Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF ( JNUG).
Other Precious Metal Options
While gold may be the standard in precious metal investing, other metals are also an option like platinum and palladium.
Investors can take advantage of platinum through ETFs like the Aberdeen Standard Platinum Shares ETF ( PPLT). PPLT seeks to reflect the performance of the price of physical platinum, less the expenses of the Trust’ s operations and is designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in platinum with minimal credit risk.
ETF investors who want to get in on the palladium action can look to the Aberdeen Standard Phys PalladiumShrs ETF ( PALL). PALL seeks to reflect the performance of the price of physical palladium, less the expenses of the Trust’ s operations—the fund is designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in palladium with minimal credit risk.
For both metals, demand in China will be strong drivers.
“ Platinum is joining with the industrial sector and giving back some recent gains, ” said O’ Connell. “ The markets will be looking to assess the outlook for the Chinese auto sector and palladium, which was already correcting as demand slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year. ”
For more market trends, visit ETF Trends.
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Global Low-Volatility ETFs for Turbulent Times | The global markets are struggling with a new virus threat that has already claimed 80 lives in China. The novel coronavirus has been spreading really fast over the past week, having infected people in Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, France, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, Macao and Nepal, with its epicenter in Wuhan, China.
Thailand and Hong Kong’ s count is eight patients each, the United States and Macau have already confirmed five cases each, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia each have confirmed four, three each in France and Japan, Vietnam and South Korea have reported two each, and one each in Canada and Nepal. Notably, authorities in the United States, France and Japan are planning to evacuate their nationals from Wuhan ( read: ETF Strategies to Combat Coronavirus Outbreak).
In this regard, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors in London, Seema Shah, has said, “ the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has the potential to whipsaw Chinese equities and, indeed, all global risk assets. With valuations elevated, asset classes are already vulnerable to shifts in sentiment, and memories of the meaningful economic impact of SARS has [ have ] the potential to play havoc with market confidence. ”
Moreover, according to an official statement from Saudi Arabia, the movements in the global oil markets are being closely monitored to analyze fall in demand due to the rapidly spreading coronavirus. Meanwhile, Trade Minister of Singapore mentioned that the country’ s economy will suffer hugely from the coronavirus outbreak as a large chunk of the tourists to the nation are Chinese nationals. Notably, Singapore was one of the worst hit nations outside of China in the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome pandemic ( read: What Lies in China ETFs ' Fortunes in the Year of Rat?).
ETFs to Play
Against such a backdrop, seeking refuge in low-volatility products seems judicious. These global low-volatility products could be intriguing choices for those who want to stay invested in equities but like the idea of focusing on minimum volatility. Low-volatility ETFs generally tend to offer positive risk-adjusted gains, though not enormous.
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global ETF ACWV
The United States is the top holding of the fund, followed by Japan, Switzerland and Canada. Financials, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Communication get a double-digit weight in the fund. The fund charges 20 bps in fees.
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF EFAV
EFAV looks to replicate the performance of international equity securities that have lower absolute volatility. No single stock makes up more than 1.61% of the portfolio. Country-wise, the fund appears more focused on Japan ( 28.5%), Switzerland ( 13.7%) and United Kingdom ( 11.6%) equities. The fund charges 20 bps in fees ( read: ETFs to Buy as Flare-up in Middle-East Tensions Spurs Volatility).
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Europe ETF EUMV
It tracks the MSCI Europe Minimum Volatility Index giving exposure to 174 European stocks having low-volatility characteristics relative to the broader European developed equity markets. The product charges 25 bps a year.
Like many other funds in the space, the ETF provides higher diversification benefits with none of the securities making up for more than 1.59% of assets. In terms of country exposure, United Kingdom takes the largest share at 21%, followed by Switzerland ( 20%), France ( 13%) and Germany ( 11.7%).
Legg Mason Low Volatility High Dividend ETF LVHD
This ETF provides stable income through investment in stocks of profitable U.S. companies, with relatively high dividend yields, lower price and earnings volatility. Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples make up the top three sectors with a double-digit allocation each. It charges 27 bps in annual fees.
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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Europe ETF ( EUMV): ETF Research Reports iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global ETF ( ACWV): ETF Research Reports Legg Mason Low Volatility High Dividend ETF ( LVHD): ETF Research Reports iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF ( EFAV): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
UCI Cancels Tour of Hainan Over Coronavirus Concerns | Gear-obsessed editors choose every product we review. We may earn commission if you buy from a link. How we test gear.
The ProSeries race will be postponed as confirmed Wuhan coronavirus cases reach more than 4,600 in China. | general |
Coronavirus in the US: how many people have it and how serious is the risk? | Five cases of the novel coronavirus infection have now been confirmed in the US, while experts have warned about 100,000 people could already be infected globally.
More than 2,700 people have been infected in China, where the virus is believed to have originated in the city of Wuhan, and 81 people have died.
The five patients with the coronavirus are based in Maricopa county, Arizona; Los Angeles county, California; Orange county, California, Snohomish county, Washington; and Chicago, Illinois.
Each person had recently traveled to Wuhan, the Centers for Disease Control said. They are being kept in isolation in hospitals. About 100 Americans, in 26 states, are also being tested for the virus.
At some airports the CDC is conducting “ entry screening ” of passengers arriving from Wuhan. Those airports are in Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco.
The government raised its travel alert in response to the outbreak, and is recommending that travelers avoid all non-essential travel to Hubei province, the administrative region that includes Wuhan.
The CDC has developed a test which can diagnose the coronavirus, and is growing the virus so it can be studied further.
“ The immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time, ” the CDC says. The virus has only been identified in people who have recently traveled to Wuhan.
Person-to-person spread of the coronavirus is occurring in China, but such transmission has not yet been detected in the US, although the CDC said it “ would not be surprising if person-to-person spread in the United States were to occur ”.
The agency warned that more cases in the United States are likely to be identified. Older people and those with underlying health conditions are at increased risk.
Those who are traveling to Wuhan are advised to avoid contact with sick people, and avoid animals – alive or dead. The CDC advises: “ Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available. ”
People who have recently traveled to Wuhan are advised to seek medical care immediately if experiencing “ fever, cough, or difficulty breathing ”, the CDC says.
Those individuals should avoid contact with others, and tell the doctor’ s office or emergency room of their recent travel before they arrive.
The World Health Organization recommends standard anti-infection measures: “ Regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. ” It advises to avoid contact with people showing signs of illness. | general |
Market's best sector right now, and history says more gains coming | Investors are playing more defense with their stock market portfolios. Even as stocks rebounded on Tuesday, history suggests that a good defense may continue to be a good offense over the next month.
The move into risk-off stocks is highlighted by the strength of utility stocks, now the best-performing sector of 2020. The move into utility stocks began before the Chinese coronavirus hit the markets hard, but has accelerated since fears of a global economic slowdown ticked up on fears of a pandemic. A CNBC analysis of recent trading history suggests that the utility sector should continue to benefit from a more risk-averse market.
The utilities sector has been soaring. Over the past month, the SPDR Utilities ETF has jumped more than 6%, and it is on pace for its best month since June 2016 and has taken over the top spot from information technology for the month of January.
According to hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, the defensive trend should continue for at least another month.
Over the past five years, the XLU has had similar gains on six other occasions. A month later the positive momentum tends to continue. The XLU gains nearly 1%, trading positively 83% of the time — and it outperforms the S & P 500 during these periods.
Six out of 11 sectors in the S & P 500 are still positive for 2020, led by utilities, which is up 5.6%. The information technology sector is up 3.8% for the year, with the coronavirus related to losses in Apple — it manufactures phones in China, and the country has become its most important sales market — contributing to its recent weakness.
Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, told `` Trading Nation '' on Thursday that as bond yields have declined — with investors seeking safety driving up bond prices — high-dividend utilities gain. `` We're moving lower here in the 10-year yield following a very clear correlation of declining yields and strong utilities, '' he said.
Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, added that she does not see a reason why the utilities sector will break down, even with its valuation high by historical standards.
`` They're great payers; they're not supposed to be at multiples of 21 times, '' Sanchez said during the same segment. `` And yet that's where they are, and yet their dividends are still almost 3%, they're still the third-highest-paying dividend sector in the S & P. ''
Other market watchers are concerned about both the risk-on and risk-off stocks that have led the market.
`` There are five technology names that are driving a good chunk of the movement in the S & P. On the other side, you see the utilities index, '' Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, recently told CNBC. `` The index is trading at 25 times, and it's throwing out a dividend that's less than 3%. Both of those numbers are historically stretched. This is an index that usually trades at 16 times and has about a 5% dividend. '' | business |
OPEC Wants To Extend Oil Production Cuts Until June | OPEC is inclined to extend the ongoing production cuts at least through June and could discuss deeper cuts if need be, OPEC sources told Reuters on Tuesday, as oil prices continue to slide on fears that the coronavirus outbreak in China will impact oil demand. OPEC is very likely to extend until June the current cuts, which expire in March, one source in OPEC told Reuters, while another added that & ldquo; A further extension is a strong possibility and a deeper cut is a possibility. & rdquo; The cartel could also consider rolling over the cuts as-is until the end of the year, or even deepen the cuts if the demand destruction turns out to be significant, according to the sources. Even Russia & mdash; which has always been OPEC & rsquo; s reluctant partner agreeing to rollover of the cuts at each OPEC meeting at the very last moment and which is said to want out after March & mdash; is reportedly considering staying in the pact if oil prices continue to be below $ 60 a barrel. Oil prices have dropped by around 10 percent since the first reports of the deadly coronavirus came out of China last week. Early on Tuesday, oil prices were on track for a sixth consecutive day of losses, with WTI Crude trading below $ 53 and Brent Crude barely hanging to the $ 58 a barrel handle. On Monday, OPEC & rsquo; s leader Saudi Arabia tried to jawbone the market higher, and the United Arab Emirates UAE chimed in to downplay what it called a & ldquo; market over-reaction & rdquo; over fears that the virus will erode oil demand in China & mdash; the world & rsquo; s largest oil importer and main oil demand growth driver. Related OPEC Considers Deeper Oil Cuts Amid Virus Market Meltdown But while the leading OPEC producers downplayed fears of crippled demand growth in an attempt to calm the oil market, the cartel was said to be considering extending the production cuts or even deepening them to stave off excessive price slides due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, an OPEC source told & nbsp; S & amp; P Global Platts on Monday. OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners are meeting in early March to decide how to proceed with the cuts. OPEC members were already said to be & nbsp; discussing a potential extension & nbsp; of the oil production cuts through the end of 2020, because of the still bearish outlook on oil demand growth, an OPEC source told Russian news agency TASS last week. & nbsp; & nbsp; By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com | business |
US forces recover two bodies from jet crash site in Afghanistan | Hi, what are you looking for?
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US forces on Tuesday recovered two bodies near the wreckage of a military jet that crashed in a Taliban-controlled area of eastern Afghanistan, after Afghan forces trying to reach the scene clashed with insurgents.
The Bombardier E-11A -- used for battlefield communications -- went down in a snowy area on Monday.
`` US forces recovered the remains of two personnel from the site, '' the US military said in a statement.
`` The remains were found near the crash site, treated with dignity and respect by the local Afghan community, in accordance with their culture, '' the statement said.
The remains of the plane were destroyed by US forces, it added, noting that the flight data recorder was recovered for analysis, as the investigation into the crash continues.
`` There are no indications the crash was caused by enemy fire, '' the US military reiterated.
Ghazni police chief Khaled Wardak said US helicopters landed at the site in the late afternoon and were reinforced by Afghan security forces on the ground during the operation.
`` Following the removal of the bodies, our forces have moved back to their bases, '' added Wardak.
Earlier in the day, coalition forces flew sorties over the site of the crashed jet with one aircraft firing flares as a crowd gathered nearby, according to a local reporter at the scene.
Wardak said that after the plane went down, Afghan security forces tried to reach the wreckage late Monday when they were ambushed by the Taliban and pushed back.
Ghazni police spokesman Ahmad Khan Sirat confirmed the ambush, adding that at least one person was killed in the fighting between the Taliban and Afghan forces.
Crashes involving military flights, particularly helicopters, are common in Afghanistan, where inclement weather and creaky aircraft are often pressed to their limits in the war-torn country -- and where insurgents have been known to target helicopters.
The crash comes as Washington and the Taliban continue to wrangle over a possible agreement that would see US troops begin to leave Afghanistan in return for security guarantees.
The two sides had been negotiating the deal for a year and were on the brink of an announcement in September 2019 when US President Donald Trump abruptly declared the process `` dead '', citing Taliban violence.
Taliban sources told AFP earlier this month they had offered to initiate a ceasefire of seven to 10 days in a bid to restart the formal negotiations, but there was no announcement of the proposal by either party.
US forces on Tuesday recovered two bodies near the wreckage of a military jet that crashed in a Taliban-controlled area of eastern Afghanistan, after Afghan forces trying to reach the scene clashed with insurgents.
The Bombardier E-11A — used for battlefield communications — went down in a snowy area on Monday.
“ US forces recovered the remains of two personnel from the site, ” the US military said in a statement.
“ The remains were found near the crash site, treated with dignity and respect by the local Afghan community, in accordance with their culture, ” the statement said.
The remains of the plane were destroyed by US forces, it added, noting that the flight data recorder was recovered for analysis, as the investigation into the crash continues.
“ There are no indications the crash was caused by enemy fire, ” the US military reiterated.
Ghazni police chief Khaled Wardak said US helicopters landed at the site in the late afternoon and were reinforced by Afghan security forces on the ground during the operation.
“ Following the removal of the bodies, our forces have moved back to their bases, ” added Wardak.
Earlier in the day, coalition forces flew sorties over the site of the crashed jet with one aircraft firing flares as a crowd gathered nearby, according to a local reporter at the scene.
Wardak said that after the plane went down, Afghan security forces tried to reach the wreckage late Monday when they were ambushed by the Taliban and pushed back.
Ghazni police spokesman Ahmad Khan Sirat confirmed the ambush, adding that at least one person was killed in the fighting between the Taliban and Afghan forces.
Crashes involving military flights, particularly helicopters, are common in Afghanistan, where inclement weather and creaky aircraft are often pressed to their limits in the war-torn country — and where insurgents have been known to target helicopters.
The crash comes as Washington and the Taliban continue to wrangle over a possible agreement that would see US troops begin to leave Afghanistan in return for security guarantees.
The two sides had been negotiating the deal for a year and were on the brink of an announcement in September 2019 when US President Donald Trump abruptly declared the process “ dead ”, citing Taliban violence.
Taliban sources told AFP earlier this month they had offered to initiate a ceasefire of seven to 10 days in a bid to restart the formal negotiations, but there was no announcement of the proposal by either party.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
A man undergoes a rapid Covid-19 test at a medical van in New York on December 17, 2021. — © AFPThe single remaining monoclonal...
Senator Joe Manchin's decision not to back Joe Biden's vast social spending bill dealt a severe blow to the US president's plans to boost...
The review demonstrates that convalescent plasma reduces the need for hospitalization by half for the patients diagnosed as being infected with COVID-19.
China Minmetals Rare Earth Company said it would merge with two of China's other top rare earth producers into a new company.
COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2021 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
Starbucks Closed More Than Half of China Stores Because of Coronavirus | Starbucks reported earnings on Tuesday.
Photograph by Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Starbucks
stock fell 1% after-hours Tuesday after the coffee chain revealed that it closed more than half its stores in China in response to
the coronavirus.
Although profits for Starbucks’ fiscal first quarter came in ahead of analyst estimates, Wall Street worried about what the store closures would mean for 2020. Starbucks reported adjusted earnings of 79 cents a share on $ 7.1 billion in sales—higher than the 76 cents analysts projected.
So far Starbucks
left its fiscal 2020 guidance
unchanged, but said the store closures are expected to materially affect its second-quarter and full-year results. On a call with analysts, Starbucks said it had intended to lift some aspects of its 2020 guidance, but was unable to do so because the full impact of the coronavirus and the duration of store closures is unknown. Management stressed it expected the impact to be temporary, but that its long-term conviction in China remains.
“ As events unfold, we will be transparent with all stakeholders in communicating how we are responding to these extraordinary circumstances and the implications for our near-term business results, ”
Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said in a statemen
t. “ We remain optimistic and committed to the long-term opportunity in China, building on our brand heritage and 20-year legacy of profitable growth. ”
Guidance will be updated when the company is better able to assess the impact of the virus.
China has been a key growth area for Starbucks as it operates
more than 4,000 stores in the country
. Same-store sales grew 3% in China during the fiscal first quarter, after being flat in the year-ago quarter.
Globally, Starbucks saw same-store sales increase 5%, with comparable growth of 6% in the U.S.
“ Building on solid business momentum from fiscal 2019, Starbucks performed very well throughout the first quarter, including one of the strongest holiday seasons in the history of our company, ” Johnson said, adding that
beverage innovation and digital efforts
helped drive top-line growth and boost margins.
Starbucks’ loyalty program now has 18.9 million active members, representing a 16% increase from last year.
Write to
Carleton English at
carleton.english @ dowjones.com | business |
China agrees to WHO sending international experts to study virus | - China has agreed that the World Health Organization ( WHO) can send international experts there `` as soon as possible '' to increase understanding of a new coronavirus and guide the global response to the outbreak, the U.N. agency said on Tuesday.
In a statement issued after a two-day visit by WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as the health and foreign ministers, it said that a better understanding of the virus ' ability to spread from person-to-person was urgently needed to advise other countries.
Tedros can reconvene the WHO Emergency Committee on very short notice as needed, the WHO said in a statement which made no reference to evacuations of foreigners that both sides say were discussed in the Beijing talks.
( Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; editing by Emma Farge) | business |
Hess Capex Budget Puts Priority on Bakken, South America | Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails.
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Shale Daily
Shale Daily | Bakken Shale | E & P | NGI All News Access
Hess Corp. is once again directing the lion’ s share, more than 80%, of its planned $ 3 billion capital expenditure ( capex) budget for 2020 to high-return investments in the Bakken Shale and offshore Guyana.
About 75% of its $ 2.9 million capex budget in 2019 went to Guyana and the Bakken, which is considered by senior executives to be one of the New York-based producer’ s “ growth engines. ” Management is designating $ 1.375 billion to fund a six-rig program in the play that is expected to result in net production growing to around 200,000 boe/d by the end of 2020.
The company expects to drill about 170 wells and bring online around 175 new wells in 2020. Funds are also included for investment in non-operated wells.
Net production is forecast to average between 330,000 and 335,000 boe/d in 2020, excluding Libya, according to Hess. Bakken net production is forecast to average approximately 180,000 boe/d in 2020.
The company reported that Bakken production during the third quarter 2019 averaged 163,000 boe/d, a 38% increase year/year. It expected to bring online 155 new wells in the play by the end of the year.
The producer also has earmarked $ 860 million for offshore Guyana, including $ 100 million associated with the Liza Phase 1 development. Subsidiary Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. has a 30% stake in a partnership with ExxonMobil Corp. in the Stabroek Block.
“ We continue to successfully execute our long-term strategy, with the majority of our capital budget directed to Guyana and the Bakken — two of the highest return investment opportunities in our industry that will become significant, long-term cash generators for our company, ” CEO John Hess said.
Hess is dishing out $ 400 million this year for the second phase of Liza development, where first production is expected by mid-2022, as well as $ 360 million to progress development plans for the Payara Field, where production could come as early as 2023. Front-end engineering and design work for future developments also is included in the company’ s plans.
The company plans to spend $ 450 million to drill exploration and appraisal wells on the Stabroek and Kaieteur Blocks offshore Guyana and two exploration wells in the Gulf of Mexico ( GOM). Funds are also included for seismic acquisition and processing in Guyana, Suriname and the deepwater GOM, and for license acquisitions.
Also in the deepwater GOM, Hess is allocating $ 135 million for production operations, including development of the Esox-1 tieback. Another $ 170 million is being set aside for production activities at North Malay Basin and the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area in the Gulf of Thailand.
“ We are well positioned to deliver industry-leading cash flow growth while also achieving significant reductions in our unit costs, which will drive margin expansion and lower our breakeven oil price to below $ 40/bbl Brent by 2025. ”
Hess is scheduled to discuss 4Q2019 earnings on Wednesday.
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Coronavirus
U.S. inventories of jet fuel reached a seven-year low last month as mounting demand intersected with lower production, federal researchers said in a report Monday. Jet fuel supplies had increased over the summer months as refineries ramped up output to meet rebounding demand for gasoline and distillate fuels. Refiners processed more crude to meet that…
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Regulatory | general |
American evacuees from Wuhan to be voluntarily quarantined |
Hundreds of Americans
who returned to the United States Wednesday from the epicenter of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak are voluntarily quarantined at the March Air Reserve Base in southern California.
Evacuees aren't required to stay in base housing, but US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said passengers were asked to stay for three days of testing and monitoring, and they are willing. If a passenger demanded to leave before the three-day period had passed, it would be a discussion `` up to the highest levels within the US government, '' officials said during a press conference on Wednesday.
Fifth US case of coronavirus confirmed as China warns people can spread the virus before they feel ill
After three days without symptoms or positive tests, passengers are free to stay at the base or return to their homes, where they will be monitored throughout a 14-day incubation period.
Any passenger exhibiting symptoms will be transported to a hospital for further evaluation, the CDC said.
`` We try and balance how to protect these people, how to respect their rights, how to be as least restrictive as possible and still be very careful about the evaluation that they go under so that everybody is safe, '' the CDC's Dr. Chris Braden said during the press conference. `` This is a balance and if we can do that without a federal quarantine order that restricts people and takes away their rights, that's what we will do. ''
Read More
Passengers were screened and monitored by medical personnel before takeoff, during the flight, during a refueling stop in Anchorage, Alaska, and after arrival, a CDC press release said. Risk assessments have included temperature checks and observing for respiratory symptoms.
Originally, the flight was supposed to land at Ontario International Airport, and arrangements there were underway to keep them there through at least Sunday, according to a county official there.
China's unprecedented quarantines could have wider consequences, experts say
Curt Hagman, chairman of the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors, said Tuesday that an empty hangar at the Ontario airport was being outfitted with beds, phone chargers, and televisions so they could watch the Super Bowl game this Sunday.
Late Tuesday night, while the flight was en route to the US from Wuhan, it was re-routed to March Air Reserve Base, about 30 miles from the Ontario Airport.
During the press conference on Wednesday, officials said the most important factor was the comfort of the passengers, knowing they could remain quarantined for up to two weeks.
`` We think the base is probably the most comfortable accommodation that we could find for them, '' said Braden, the deputy director of the CDC's National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.
The decision to quarantine
Quarantining an entire plane of healthy people is `` certainly unusual, '' said Dr. William Schaffner, a longtime CDC adviser.
`` With SARS and Zika, we quarantined individuals, but not a whole airplane, '' said Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
Wuhan coronavirus continues its global spread with more than 6,000 cases
`` There's much that is unknown about this virus, and so they're being cautious, '' Schaffner said. `` I think this is consistent with good public health policy. ''
Most significantly, it's unclear if people who are infected with the virus, but not yet showing symptoms, can spread the disease. Chinese health authorities say asymptomatic people can spread the virus, but US health authorities say
they 've seen no data to suggest that
.
The French, Australian, and South Korean governments are quarantining their citizens returning from Wuhan.
On Sunday, French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn said that when the French citizens fly home this week, they will be kept in one place to avoid any spread of the virus.
`` In order to avoid any spread on the national territory, all the people who are being repatriated will be monitored by health professionals, and will be held for 14 days, '' Buzyn said.
British Airways suspends flights to China as coronavirus spreads
On Wednesday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, announced that Australians being flown out of Wuhan were required to stay quarantined on a remote island off the west coast of Australia.
`` Australians departing on any flight arranged by the Australian Government will be flown to Christmas Island to undertake a period of quarantine of up to 14 days based on current medical advice as a condition of their assisted departure, '' according to a press release from the Prime Minister's office. `` This will ensure we are also prioritizing public health in Australia. ''
In South Korea, citizens returning from Wuhan will be quarantined for 14 days in two government facilities, and will receive medical check-ups twice a day, according to a government statement.
Health authorities believe the incubation period -- the time from exposure to the virus until the onset of symptoms -- could be as many as 14 days.
Some experts think quarantining healthy passengers is the wrong approach.
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The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta
every Tuesday from the CNN Health team.
Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatric infectious disease expert at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, said that when someone on an airplane is found to have influenza, fellow passengers are not quarantined.
`` We don't do this for the flu, and it's known to cause 35,000 deaths in the US every year, '' he said.
He said quarantining the Wuhan passengers sends the wrong message -- that a new, exotic virus from a faraway land is more to be feared than one that is in our midst.
`` I can't understand why they're doing this. It doesn't make sense, '' Offit said. `` I think it sends the message that this is a virus that is particularly to be feared, that it's more likely to cause deaths than say influenza, which isn't true. ''
CNN's Stella Chan, Paul Vercammen, John Bonifield, Saskya Vandoorne and Fanny Bobille contributed to this report. | general |
9 million children could die in a decade unless world acts on pneumonia, leading agencies warn | BARCELONA, 29 January 2020 — Boosting efforts to fight pneumonia could avert nearly 9 million child deaths from pneumonia and other major diseases, a new analysis has found ahead of the first ever global forum on childhood pneumonia in Barcelona ( January 29-31).
According to a modelling by Johns Hopkins University, scaling up pneumonia treatment and prevention services can save the lives of 3.2 million children under the age of five. It would also create ‘ a ripple effect’ that would prevent 5.7 million extra child deaths from other major childhood diseases at the same time, underscoring the need for integrated health services.
Pneumonia is caused by bacteria, viruses or fungi, and leaves children fighting for breath as their lungs fill with pus and fluid. It is the biggest single killer of children, claiming the lives of 800,000 children last year, or 1 child every 39 seconds. Although some types of pneumonia can be prevented with vaccines and can be easily treated with low-cost antibiotics if properly diagnosed, tens of millions of children are still unvaccinated – and one in three children with symptoms do not receive essential medical care.
Child deaths from pneumonia are concentrated in the world’ s poorest countries and it is the most deprived and marginalised children who suffer the most. Forecasts show 6.3 million children under the age of five could die from pneumonia between 2020 and 2030, on current trends. Over the next decade, deaths are likely to be highest in Nigeria ( 1.4 million), India ( 880,000), the Democratic Republic of Congo ( 350,000) and Ethiopia ( 280,000).
Health interventions aimed at improving nutrition, providing antibiotics and increasing vaccine coverage, boosting breastfeeding rates – key measures that reduce the risk of children dying from pneumonia – would also prevent millions of child deaths from diseases like diarrhoea ( 2.1 million), sepsis ( 1.3 million), and measles ( 280,000).
Kevin Watkins, Chief Executive of Save the Children, said: “ The number of lives that could be saved is potentially far higher as the modelling did not take account of factors like availability of medical oxygen, or action to reduce levels of air pollution, a major risk factor for pneumonia.These results show what is possible. It would be morally indefensible to stand and allow millions of children continue to die for want of vaccines, affordable antibiotics and routine oxygen treatment. ”
Henrietta Fore, Executive Director of UNICEF, said: “ If we are serious about saving the lives of children, we have to get serious about fighting pneumonia. As the current coronavirus outbreak shows, this means improving timely detection and prevention. It means making the right diagnosis and prescribing the right treatment. It also means addressing the major causes of pneumonia deaths like malnutrition, lack of access to vaccines and antibiotics, and tackling the more difficult challenge of air pollution. ”
Outdoor air pollution contributes to 17.5 per cent – or nearly one in five – pneumonia deaths among children under five worldwide, according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( IHME-GBD). Household pollution from the indoor use of solid cooking fuels contributes to an additional 195,000 ( 29.4 per cent) deaths.
Ninety-one per cent of the world’ s population is breathing outdoor air that exceeds WHO standards. The scale of the air pollution challenge could potentially undermine the impact of scaling up pneumonia-related interventions.
Other causes of pneumonia deaths include malnutrition, and lack of access to vaccines and antibiotics. According to the Johns Hopkins modelling, of the total 8.9 million deaths from all causes that could be averted over the next decade, 3.9 million would be the result of greater efforts to reduce levels of malnutrition alone.
Dr Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, said: “ Pneumococcal pneumonia is an easily preventable, often treatable disease – no parent should go through the agony of losing their child to this disease. Over the past decade we have made progress in boosting the number of children receiving lifesaving pneumococcal vaccine and it is vital that we keep up these efforts to protect the next generation against this deadly disease. Gavi’ s donor pledging conference in June will offer the international community the chance to help us do so. ”
Quique Bassat, Research Professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health ( ISGlobal) and Chair of the Global Forum on Childhood Pneumonia said: '' The disease that kills most children in the world can not be neglected any longer in terms of its scarce global research funding. Research and innovation need to drive policy change, and lead the way for further decreases in pneumonia-attributable mortality. ''
Leith Greenslade, Co-ordinator of the Every Breath Counts Coalition, said: `` This analysis shows that collective action to protect children from pneumonia could really boost national efforts to achieve the SDG for child survival. Governments and international development agencies must act urgently to protect the most vulnerable children from malnutrition and exposure to air pollution, and ensure that they receive pneumonia-fighting vaccines and speedy diagnosis, child-friendly antibiotics and oxygen if they become sick. If they don’ t, 9 million children’ s lives are at stake. ”
On January 29-31, the nine leading health and children’ s organisations – ISGlobal, Save the Children, UNICEF, Every Breath Counts, “ la Caixa ” Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID, Unitaid and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance – are hosting world leaders at the Global Forum on Childhood Pneumonia in Barcelona, the first international forum on childhood pneumonia.
Among the announcements to be made at the forum include a more affordable, PCV vaccine from the Serum Institute of India and political commitments from governments in high-burden countries to develop national strategies to reduce pneumonia deaths.
UNICEF works in some of the world’ s toughest places, to reach the world’ s most disadvantaged children. Across more than 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, to build a better world for everyone. | general |
United Airlines suspends some flights between US and China as coronavirus spreads |
United Airlines is temporarily reducing its schedule between the United States and three cities in China in light of the Wuhan virus.
The airline said in a statement that `` significant decline in demand '' has forced it to suspend flights from February 1 though February 8 between its US hubs and Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai.
In total, 24 round trips are affected. They are between Hong Kong to San Francisco and Newark; Beijing ( PEK) to Washington Dulles, Chicago O'Hare and Newark; and Shanghai ( PVG) to San Francisco, Newark and Chicago O'Hare.
`` We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops and will adjust our schedule as needed, '' the airline said.
It's the most drastic action yet by a US airline as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread.
American Airlines
(
AAL
)
,
Delta Air Lines
(
DAL
)
and
United
(
UAL
)
all extended change fee waivers through the
end of February
.
Read More
Neither American or Delta has made any changes to their flight schedules, but both companies told CNN Business they continue to closely monitor the situation.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to spread. More than 100 people have died and more than 4,500 cases have been confirmed in mainland China, according to health officials in the country. Dozens of others have been infected worldwide, including at least five cases in the United States.
The Centers for Disease Control has said it is now monitoring for symptoms of the virus among passengers arriving at 20 US airports. | general |
US airlines offer change fee waivers in light of coronavirus outbreak |
US airlines are giving customers more time to change their flights to China without incurring fees
as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread,
and as American authorities raise travel precautions for the country.
American Airlines
(
AAL
)
and
Delta Air Lines
(
DAL
)
on Monday each extended change fee waivers through the end of February. Earlier, they had issued waivers through the end of January.
That means people scheduled to fly before then on either airline to Beijing or Shanghai — the two cities that each company serves in mainland China — can change to a different flight without paying a fee to do so.
United Airlines
(
UAL
)
also extended waivers for change fees on flights to Beijing, Shanghai or Chengdu through the end of February. Last week, it offered waivers through February 7.
United is also offering refunds to passengers traveling to Wuhan if they bought their ticket by January 21 and are expected to travel there from now until March 29.
Read More
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday raised its travel precaution for China to its highest level. That means it's advising travelers to `` avoid nonessential travel '' to the country. Previously, only Hubei province — where Wuhan is located — carried such a warning.
The coronavirus has continued to spread.
More than 100 people are dead
and more than 4,500 cases have been confirmed in mainland China, according to health officials in the country. Dozens of others have been infected worldwide, including at least five cases in the United States.
The CDC has said it is now monitoring for symptoms of the virus among passengers arriving at 20 US airports.
The agency has also announced enhanced screening of passengers from Wuhan at five airports: John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, San Francisco International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.
On Monday, a health official with the CDC said the agency had screened about 2,400 people so far.
— CNN's Dave Alsup and Michael Nedelman contributed to this report. | general |
China's coronavirus outbreak: Here's what happened on Tuesday | China’ s coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan and continues to upend travel and worldwide markets, has now been reported in more than a dozen locations, and the numbers of those affected have risen.
Both Hong Kong and Russia announced strict travel measures from mainland China, with the U.S. government expanding screening measures at key airports, and at least one major air carrier pulling back on travel to the world’ s second-largest economy.
As of Tuesday, the death toll in China and the region has surpassed 106, and more than 4,500 cases have been confirmed. In the United States, there are still only 5 known cases.
For now, the impact in other countries has been relatively limited, and the Centers for Disease Control is monitoring airports for travelers arriving from China and the surrounding region. However, the uncertainty is ramping up volatility on Wall Street, where stocks suffered their biggest one-day drop since October on Monday, amid fears of a worldwide pandemic.
Yahoo Finance is following developments closely, and will bring you updates as they occur.
Markets remain closed in China and Hong Kong Tuesday, but major U.S. benchmarks staged a modest comeback from the previous day’ s losses. Travel and leisure stocks remained under pressure, as investors priced in the possibility that the coronavirus would crimp flights and cruises. One analyst told Yahoo Finance the crisis could weigh on cruise companies’ bottom line:
Meanwhile, citing a “ significant decline in demand, ” United Airlines ( UAL) announced on Tuesday that it was suspending some flights between hub cities and Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, The travel limitations will start February 1 and extend through February 8.
Starbucks, McDonalds and Disney have shuttered locations in the areas affected by the virus; meanwhile, casinos in Macau are also affected as transit in the area has been restricted.
Yet some pharmaceutical and biotech stocks have rallied on the news of the virus. Large cap companies like Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ), AbbVie ( ABBV) and Gilead Sciences ( GILD) announced they have entered the race to find a vaccine for the new virus strain.
For its part, J & J’ s chief scientific officer, Paul Stoffels, told Yahoo Finance that the company plans to use “ the same technology that was used in the development and manufacture of Johnson & Johnson’ s Ebola vaccine which is currently deployed in DRC and Rwanda, ” as well as Zika and HIV treatments, he added.
The World Health Organization has not yet declared the outbreak global public health emergency — despite the fact that Beijing has imposed a quarantine on about 50 million of its citizens. The WHO will meet again in the coming weeks for a status update and is working in China to help contain the outbreak, admitting on Monday it had erred in assessing the virus’ risk level.
While most countries remain vigilant without any travel bans, the U.K. advised travelers against “ all but essential ” travel to mainland China.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping recently told the WHO the Chinese government is aggressively fighting the virus — calling it a “ devil ” in remarks that were widely circulated on Tuesday.
Anjalee Khemlani is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @ AnjKhem
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| business |
Opinion: Three reasons coronavirus won’ t derail China’ s economy | NEW YORK (
Project Syndicate) —
The panic generated by the new coronavirus, 2019-nCov, which originated in Wuhan, one of China’ s largest cities and a major domestic transport hub, reminds many of the fear and uncertainty at the peak of the 2003 SARS crisis.
China’ s stock market
HSI,
-1.07%
SHCOMP,
-0.18%
, after rising for months, has reversed itself in recent days, and
global markets have followed suit
,
DJIA,
+0.60%
GDOW,
+0.20%
apparently reflecting concerns about the epidemic’ s impact on the Chinese economy and global growth. Are these worries justified?
Opinion:
The main reason for the stock market’ s decline is NOT the coronavirus
My baseline projection is that the coronavirus outbreak will get worse before it gets better, with infections and deaths possibly peaking in the second or third week of February. But I expect that both the Chinese authorities and the World Health Organization will declare the epidemic to be under control by early April.
Small impact
Under this baseline scenario, my best estimate is that the virus will have only a limited negative economic impact. Its effect on the Chinese growth rate in 2020 is likely to be small, perhaps a decline on the order of 0.1 percentage point of gross domestic product.
The effect in the first quarter of 2020 will be big, perhaps lowering growth by one percentage point on an annualized basis, but this will be substantially offset by above-trend growth during the rest of the year. The impact on world GDP growth will be even smaller.
Such a prediction recalls the experience of the 2003 SARS crisis: a big decline in China’ s GDP growth in the second quarter of that year was then largely offset by higher growth in the subsequent two quarters. While the full-year growth rate in 2003 was about 10%, many investment banks’ economists over-predicted the epidemic’ s negative impact on growth.
Looking at annual real GDP growth rates from 2000 to 2006, it is very hard to see a SARS effect in the data.
Some fear that the epidemic’ s timing — at the start of the week-long Chinese New Year celebration, and in the middle of traditional school-break travels — will exacerbate the economic fallout by keeping many people away from shops, restaurants, and travel hubs.
Three factors
But three important factors may limit the virus’ s impact.
First, in contrast to the SARS outbreak, China is now in the internet commerce age, with consumers increasingly doing their shopping online. Much of the reduction in offline sales owing to the virus will likely be offset by an increase in online purchases.
And most of the vacations canceled today will probably be replaced by future trips, because better-off households have already set aside a holiday travel budget.
Many factories have scheduled production stoppages during the Chinese New Year holidays anyway, so the timing of the epidemic may minimize the need for further shutdowns. Similarly, many government offices and schools had planned holiday closures independently of the virus outbreak.
The government has just announced an extension of the holiday period, but many companies will find ways to make up the lost time later in the year. The short-term negative impact is thus likely to be concentrated among restaurants, hotels, and airlines.
Second, all reports indicate that the Wuhan coronavirus is less deadly than SARS ( although it may have a faster rate of transmission initially). Equally important, the Chinese authorities have been much swifter than they were during the SARS episode in moving from controlling information to controlling the spread of the virus.
By implementing aggressive measures to isolate actual and potential patients from the rest of the population, the authorities have improved their chances of containing the epidemic much sooner. That, in turn, increases the likelihood that the lost economic output this quarter will be offset by increased activity in the remainder of the year.
Third, whether or not China’ s trade negotiators realized the severity of the Wuhan virus when they signed the “ phase one ” trade deal with the United States on Jan. 15, the timing of the agreement has turned out to be fortunate.
By greatly increasing its imports of facemasks and medical supplies from the U.S. ( and elsewhere), China can simultaneously tackle the health crisis and fulfill its promise under the deal to import more goods.
Global growth
The virus’ s impact on other economies will be even more limited.
During the last half-decade, many major central banks have developed models to gauge the impact of a slowdown in China on their economies. These models were not built with the current health crisis in mind, but they do take into account trade and financial linkages between China and their respective economies.
As a rule of thumb, the negative impact of a decrease in China’ s GDP growth on the U.S. and European economies is about one-fifth as large in percentage terms.
For example, if the current coronavirus epidemic lowers China’ s growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, then growth in the U.S. and Europe is likely to slow by about 0.02 percentage point. The impact on Australia’ s economy may be twice as large, given its stronger commodity-trade and tourism links with China, but a 0.04-percentage-point reduction in growth is still small.
Such calculations assume that the coronavirus does not spread widely to these countries and cause direct havoc. This currently seems unlikely, given the low number of cases outside China.
Of course, the impact on China and other economies could be more severe if the coronavirus crisis were to last much longer than this baseline scenario assumes.
In that case, it is important to remember that Chinese policy makers still have room for both monetary and fiscal expansion: the banking-sector reserve ratio is relatively high, and the share of public-sector debt to GDP is still manageable compared to China’ s international peers. By using this policy space when necessary, China’ s authorities could limit the ultimate impact of the current health crisis.
The coronavirus outbreak is understandably causing alarm in China and elsewhere. But from an economic perspective, it is too early to panic.
This article was published with permission of
Project Syndicate
—
Will the Coronavirus Cause a Major Growth Slowdown in China?
Shang-Jin Wei, a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, is professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School and Columbia University’ s School of International and Public Affairs. | business |
F1 Shanghai Grand Prix heads list of China sports events under threat before coronavirus peak | Formula One’ s Shanghai Grand Prix in April heads the list of high-profile international sporting events that are set to take place in China during the months before the coronavirus reaches its | business |
Barclays sees $ 2/bbl impact to oil prices as virus fears threaten demand | Barclays said on Tuesday oil prices will be impacted by $ 2 per barrel on the potential economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak in China.
More than 100 people have died and over 4,000 cases of the new virus have been confirmed in China, leading authorities to increase preventive measures, impose travel restrictions and also extend the Lunar New Year holidays to limit the spread of the virus.
The bank sees a $ 2 per barrel downside to their full-year Brent and WTI forecasts of $ 62 per barrel and $ 57 per barrel, respectively.
Compounding the effects of the spillover to economic growth from China and the region, Barclays expects transitory oil demand erosion of about 0.6-0.8 million barrels per day ( mb/d) in the first quarter of this year, or 0.2 mb/d for the full year.
`` If air passenger traffic in China declined by half in first quarter of 2020, it would likely lead to a 300,000 barrels per day year on year decline in jet-kerosene demand from China, '' the bank said adding the fall in road transport would likely be less severe than in the past given reduced reliance on buses.
Barclays expects the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other allies to step in and take further measures to keep the markets tight, in case the fall in demand is more acute.
Oil prices have been down for the last six sessions, but the bank said that the market reaction was likely overdone.
Barclays said the actual economic fallout from the coronavirus could be less severe than the 2003 SARS outbreak, given that the new virus seems less lethal than SARS so far and the measures taken by Chinese authorities.
The bank said the geopolitical risks to global supplies remain high as U.S.-Iran tensions could continue to gradually escalate and oil production in Libya could fall further if the blockade of key infrastructure facilities continues.
Brent crude prices are currently trading around $ 59 per barrel and U.S. WTI at around at $ 53 per barrel. ( Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta) | business |
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